Thursday June 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

YNET reported yesterday that sources close to Hezbollah say that Hezbollah is preparing for war with Israel.

The upshot is that Hezbollah needs to relieve the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad. You see, Hezbollah needs Assad and they want to make certain that Assad stays in power.

The West may have an urge to oust Assad, much as they are trying to do with Ghadaffi. That would signal real danger and even a crisis of existence for Hezbollah. Syria sponsors Hezbollah and a newly-placed Sunni government would not look kindly on Shiite Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is preparing to make certain that no foreign soldiers enter the region. They figure that a major distraction - like a full scale assault on Israel, would lend Assad enough time to regroup and re-strengthen and would relieve the pressure and divert attention so that their Syrian sponsor could get his country back to order.

This is a very pessimistic view of foreign affairs and conflicts. It is also very much a part of the bag of tricks that Hezbollah can and will, if necessary, use.

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