July 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The shake-up in the Turkish army is a bad sign for the West and for Israel.

The Turkish army was always fiercely secular. It was a counterbalance to Islamic influences. The balance/counterbalance worked well - even under the current Turkish leadership in which Erdogan and his party represent a Muslim party.

The departure of the top echelon of leadership, including the four most important members of the military, leaves a gap that will be filled by political appointments. When this happens the balance will be shifted and the status quo will be altered, breaking the checks that had been in place against Muslim political interests.

The Turkish army has had very close relations with Israel and the United States. There were weapons deals and training drills and maneuvers. But that was with the understanding that the Turkish army play a role in keeping Turkey friendly and open to the West. For years the trade-off has been very positive and helped Turkey become a significant economic force in the region.

Now the shake-up. It could mean a drastic shift in orientation and have a huge impact on the region. Iran already reached out to Turkey and in the last UN Security Council vote on sanctions against Iran, Turkey sided with Iran against the sanctions.

Turkey must be watched very carefully.

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