Monday August 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went on the record yesterday and said that the UN proposal to unilaterally declare a Palestinian State will break the stalemate and help move Israel and the Palestinians closer to a negotiated settlement.

A message was also sent out by Hanan Ashwarwi saying that the Palestinians plan to ask the Security Council for approval.

The Palestinians hope that the US will abstain.

If the US does abstain the proposal will pass the Security Council and go to the General Assembly where the Palestinians have lined up at least 134 countries that they can count on to vote in favor of statehood.

The Palestinians have been told that the US cannot vote in favor of their statehood in the Security Council. But an abstention, that might be a way out. At least, so think the Palestinians.

The problem or the genius with this logic is that if the United States abstains it will turn US Middle East policy on its head. This administration, however, has been known to do just that. It would mean an end to direct negotiations and would thrust the region into conflict.

On the flip side, if the US vetoes rather than abstains, as would be the expectation, it would mean a thumb in the eye of the US by the Palestinians. The move would publically humiliate the United States. The Palestinians would call them out saying you are not really in favor of a Palestinian state - you pay lip service, but you the great magnanimous United States of America, are preventing the declaration of a Palestinian state.

Once again, the United States has managed to stab itself in the back - diplomatically speaking, of course.

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