Thursday December 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Several weeks ago there was a massive explosion that rocked a missile base just outside of Teheran. 18 people were killed. One of those killed was General Hassan Teherani Moqaddam, head of the missile program.

It is still unclear what caused the explosion. Some have said it was the Mossad, others have said that it was insurgents and anti-government underground forces. The government has been asserting that the explosion was an accident.

The explosion could have been caused by any or all of those reasons. Add to that the computer virus that has badly infected Iranian Siemens systems and there is another possible cause.

What is fascinating me right now is a Basij website that reported that the general's last will and testament said that he wants his tombstone to say "the person buried here wanted to destroy Israel."

For General Moqaddam, as for many leaders in the Iranian regime - and not only religious leaders as many people mistakenly believe, destroying Israel is a primary life objective.

That is mind boggling. That is insight into the Iranian mind.

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Wednesday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send its only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kuznetzov, to join a flotilla of war ships to Syria.

The Russians have built a multi-billion dollar navy base in Tartus, Syria. Tartus will be the new base of operations for the entire Russian presence in Middle East, especially for its submarine force.

Tartus is just north of Lebanon and a stone's throw from Turkey. It is practically next to Israel. And it is the second largest port of Syria.

Moving its aircraft carrier - its only aircraft carrier to Syria, makes a very strong statement.

This move says that Russia is going to support Syria on the ground and in the arena - not just in the United Nations Security Council where they continue to veto sanctions and any action against the Syrians.

Russia has too much to lose if Assad falls. That is why the Russians are doing their best to bolster Syria and secure the position of Bashar Assad.

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Tuesday November 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A huge explosion occurred in the Iranian city of Isfahan at 2:40 in the afternoon local time yesterday. According to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, the explosion took place in their uranium enrichment plant.

Soon after the piece was posted on FARS, it was removed. All the other official news sites in Iran quoted officials saying that no such explosion had occurred.

The Isfahan plant enriches uranium. It makes urania which is popularly known as Yellowcake. The Yellowcake is transformed into UF6 Gas which is the shortened form of Uranium Hexafuoride Gas. After the UF6 Gas is produced it is shipped to Natanz and Qom.

The explosion did take place and it did a great amount of damage. It resembles the explosion that happened two weeks ago outside of Teheran at the Revolutionary Guard's missile base.
In that explosion 18 people were killed including the general in charge of the missile program.

Isfahan is Iran's third largest city. People know about the uranium conversion plant - it is located too close to the city for people not to hear and know what happened.

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Monday November 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Elections will be held in Egypt tomorrow and Tuesday. This is the beginning of a long, extended, election for the lower parliament which does not conclude until January.

There is an array of parties and the entire election process is unclear. There will certainly be bullying and corruption. There will be no international observers.

The follow up, the upper parliament and presidential election, is scheduled for the end of June.

Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council, has begged people to come out and vote. The problem is that when there is crisis, those who do vote - vote for the extremes.

Because there has been almost no education about the parties running for election and no education about the voting process - very few Egyptians will ultimately come out to vote. They do not know where to go and have no idea of when to vote or how the votes will be tallied.

Egypt has no single independent body watching the process. It is a recipe for corruption and for extremism.

This is electoral anarchy. That is the worst kind of elections.
Just wait and see.

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Sunday November 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco held an election on Saturday and The Party for Justice and Development (PJD) won the plurality. That means it won more votes than any other party, but not a majority. Now they need to form a coalition in order to rule.

There are about 33 million people in Morocco. 13 million are registered to vote and 45% of that group actually voted. In other words, about 6 million came out to the polls.

The PJD is an Islamic party. In all likelihood they will join with the left wing socialist party and two other parties in the current ruling coalition.

Bottom line: those who voted the Islamic line hoping for an Islamic state, will be disappointed.

For Moroccans in general the results of this election mean that there is virtually no chance to solve their country's 30 % unemployment and their huge deficit. It means that the 8.5 million Moroccans, 25% of the country, now living in abject poverty will continue to live in abject poverty.

Morocco now joins Tunisia as the second Muslim country to elect an Islamic plurality. These elections do not portend well for change. At best, there will be no impact on the lives of the voters, at worst - well, let's just hope for the best.

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Saturday November 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo, Egypt there was a rally attended by about 8,000 people.

The one verse quoted from the Koran, repeated over and over, by speaker after speaker, was this: "We will kill all the Jews."

One speaker said that the reason the US is losing in Afghanistan is because Muslims are willing to die for their cause. He said that: "Muslims have a different mentality."

Speakers referred to freeing Tel Aviv.

Speakers spoke about Jerusalem and how Muslim holy sites are being Juda-ized.

Speakers called on Muslims to unite and defend themselves against the Zionists and the United States.

The theme was: unite against the common enemy - Jews, Israel and the West.

The speaker who said Muslims have a different mentality was right. These rallies are deserving of more coverage in the mainstream Western press. The Western world needs to know what is going on, needs to understand how much the Muslim world hates us.

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Friday November 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Sanctions are the kind of thing Westerners understand. They are one of the only tools that can have an impact and that can help convince oppressive regimes to change.

Sometimes they work - sometimes they have the opposite effect.
Syria is the perfect example.

The EU has stepped up their sanctions on Syria. Heating oil, specifically, is not to be exported to Syria.

So who gets hurt by the lack of heating oil in Syria? The very people who want to oust Assad. Assad is not hurt at all, he has plenty of heating oil and he makes certain that those loyal to him have heat.

There was a delivery of heating oil to Syria on Wednesday by AOT, a Swiss company. Unfortunately, they are the only ones who understand what is really happening.

If ousting Assad is a priority, the actions applied should place pressure on Assad, not on those we are trying to support and to protect.

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Wednesday November 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli army is preparing for a major offensive in Gaza.

The division that will be primary in the operation is the engineering corps. Right now the army is trying to understand the TUNNELS.

It was through the use of tunnels that Hamas was able to capture and hold Gilad Shalit. In the eyes of the Israeli army, it is the tunnels that will be the key to any future offensive against Hamas.

One of the things the engineering corps is investigating is how effective their D-9 bulldozers are. They are determining how far can the bulldozers can go inside Gaza and how deep they can dig.

These are humongous vehicles. These are intimidating machines with great strength. They can destroy any structure above or below the ground. But they have to know where to go to be effective.

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November 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy & National Security

*It should be clear that foreign policy is enormously important to the task of the president --- but it is not foreign policy that influences voters. Very few people say I support this candidate because of his/her foreign policy POV.

*Foreign policy segues into national security. Threats against the US and against US interests begin abroad. Those threats need to be understood - they are what stimulates terror and threatens the homefront.

* Several of the candidates make the debates interesting - but they are not real candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate. He articulated libertarian ideas which are growing in popularity, but are wrong vis a vis for example, the Middle East. Rick Perry is another such candidate - his no fly zone over Syria is "way out there" it makes no sense and shows a lack of understanding of the way international decisions are made.

All the candidates did well - there were no major gaffs which also means that there were no memorable moments.

Each candidate is really only dealing in theory. These threats against the US are truly overwhelming and will only be actually understood after the first security briefing.

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Tuesday November 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Monday was a bloody day in Egypt.
At least 33 people were killed in clashes between the army and protesters.

As a direct result of the violence, the entire Egyptian cabinet submitted its resignation to the Supreme Military Council later that day.

The Council accepted their resignations.

This is all happening during the week that the first stage of Egyptian parliamentary elections is to take place.

There is very little chance that the election will be democratic and even less chance that Egypt will usher out the Supreme Military Council.

The army rules in Egypt and I expect they will continue to rule in the near future.

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Monday November 21,2011

Column:

Ghadaffi is dead and that should not have happened.

Moammar Ghadaffi, the Colonel as he preferred to be called, was murdered. Not in battle or a shoot out, the thug-hero who ruled Libya was murdered, in cold blood, after he surrendered.

Rules of war, as well as the rules of Islam, require that when a person surrenders, he be taken prisoner. Even tyrants. Even despots and dictators. Even Moammar Ghadaffi. But that is not what happened.

The question that needs to be asked is this: Was the murder of Moammar Ghadaffi the best outcome. In other words, was it best to drag him, beat him and kill him or should Ghadaffi have been arrested and then tried in a court of law?

Any established democracy would respond by saying that the tyrant should be brought to trial and be given legal representation - but Libya never was and is still not, a democracy.

In all probability, with almost certainty, had Ghadaffi been brought to trial he would have been given a death sentence, a sentence which he rightfully deserved. That is not the issue I am debating. My issue is whether or not this death, dealt in this fashion, was the best course of action to be taken by a developing country emerging from forty-two years of oppression.

The rules of war are very clear. The ethical and just ways of acting in war are also clear. Killing in war is justified, not simply because the clich of 'kill or be killed' is true, but because war is about survival. In this case, the war was about eliminating the dictator who ruthlessly oppressed and maimed and killed the people of Libya over an extended time. It was about ousting an oppressive murderous tyrant.

As long as the Ghadaffi was fighting, killing was justified by those in opposition to his rule. But as soon as the dictator stopped fighting, the equation changed. That is when killing as an act of war turned into murder. After that, the only way to take a life is by way of trial, conviction and then execution.

It is the role of the soldier to protect the life of his prisoner once that prisoner surrenders. That is the case regardless of the horrific extent of the prisoner's crimes. So says the rules of war and so says the rules of Islam.

Ghadaffi knew the rules. That is why, on the tapes, we hear his voice shouting: 'You are wrong.' 'You do not know right from wrong. 'You do not know Islam.' 'You sin.'

Ghadaffi was counting on this eventuality. He had thought it through. He knew that there was a chance that he would be captured and not killed in battle. And if that were to happen he wanted to make certain that he would receive protected status as a prisoner. But it didn't happen. Instead, the angry crowd reportedly sodomized him with a combat knife before lynching him. We heard only one voice saying: 'Do not kill him' as Ghadaffi was dragged off and murdered.

Rules aside, there are other reasons why it was wrong, morally, ethically, historically and financially wrong to murder Ghadaffi. Unfortunately, these reasons were never made clear to the opposition fighters, Libyans interested only in exacting immediate revenge for the gruesome acts committed by the tyrant who ruled over a thugocracy in Libya.

From the very beginning, as the rebellion started and the no-fly zone was erected, opposition leaders should have made clear to their fighters that capturing a live Ghadaffi was more important than displaying a dead Ghadaffi. They should have explained that the cathartic experience of recording the hundreds of thousands of atrocities perpetrated by Moammar Ghadaffi, of recording each and every one and entering them all into the historical archive, was essential for national healing.

A public trial, where the horrific acts would be articulated, broadcast, written down as part of the history, even if it took years, would eliminate the possibility of the re-writing history, or questioning of the veracity of events, years later. It was for this purpose that Adolf Eichmann was captured, brought to Jerusalem and tried publicly. The objective of Israel was to enter events as part of the legal and historical record. Had Ghadaffi been brought to trial his trial would have been an educational tool and a historical catharsis for a country that suffered under a brutal tyrant.

Then there is the subject of money. $200 billion or more is socked away. No one knows where. That is money that should be used to rebuild Libya. It is money for education, health and retraining. It is money that the families of those Libyans tortured, terrified and murdered by their leader could use.

This $200 billion, or it's equivalent, will now come out of the pockets of Western democracies, of Western tax payers who will foot the bill for the lion's share of the first stages of reconstruction Libya so desperately needs after the rebellion. Certainly, the Libyan oil industry will help offset the cost - but only later on. If Ghadaffi were still alive and able to reveal where this $200 billion is, that money could be put to use immediately.

But these Libyans were not interested in history. These Libyans were out for revenge. And that is just what they got. And that is not good news for the future of Libya.

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Sunday November 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Newly released documents show just what Henry Kissinger thought about American Jewish leadership. It is not flattering.

Quotes from 1972 tell of Kissinger talking to Nixon aide Leonard Garment, who is also Jewish. In one exchange Kissinger asks, "Is there a more self-serving group of people than the Jewish community?" Garment, answers "None in the world."

Then Kissinger expounds on his earlier point "What the hell do they think they are accomplishing? You can't even tell bastards anything in confidence because they'll leak it."

I cannot say that I am surprised, but this does not make me feel comfortable. What is most deplorable to me is that Henry Kissinger has made millions of dollars speaking to Jews and advising Jewish groups - and the Jewish community has always taken pride in his accomplishments and showered Kissinger with respect.

Given these statements I do not think this self-hating Jew deserves such respect.

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Saturday November 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Friday is the Sabbath in the Islamic world. It is the perfect time for protests and rallies.

Yesterday, in Tahrir Square, 10's of thousands of Egyptians gathered to shout out against their military government. The main organizers and the main groups that attended the rally were religious groups - principally the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Supreme Military Council is the body that has been in charge of Egypt since Mubarak stepped down. Some people do not think that the Military will step aside - even after any elections.

Egyptian elections are slated for November 25th. But they are not final elections, they are the first of a series of elections that will be dragging out over months.

The people who came to the square to protest are expressing their anger.

Signs read: "Down with the Military." "We are not an Army Camp." "The Koran is our Constitution."

This last one is important. The draft of the new constitution contains an article giving the military council the power to supersede elected president.

This is the country that the Western world, specifically the United States, is hoping will turn into a democracy.

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Friday November 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA now has a plan for Iran. They want to create a mission. That's UN terminology for an onsite study.

Last week the IAEA issued a scathing report on Iran. You would think that the IAEA would now take some real action, especially after 15 years of walking on a tightrope with Iran.

But no ... the IAEA once again lives up to their tradition.

In response to their own damning report, the IAEA geared up, took a deep breath and asked Iran for permission to visit their nuclear facilities and inspect them again.

I ask you: What is the IAEA really there for?

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Thursday November 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syria's opposition is beginning to strike at Syrian military targets.
For the first time in eight months the handful of army deserters that now form the opposition are using their training, their weapons and their knowledge to hit Syrian army targets.

At 2:30AM, in the dark of night, a major military target on the edge of Damascus was attacked by shoulder mounted rockets and machine gun fire. At least six soldiers were killed and over twenty were wounded.

The opposition targeted an air force intelligence center. In Syria, the army and air force intelligence agencies are responsible for tracking and finding deserters.

This attack is a watershed, it was well planned and executed.

Attacks like prove to the Syrian that the balance can shift. Attacks like this one would be proof that Assad and his forces are vulnerable and even beatable.

These attacks can move the opposition up a notch, propelling them from the protest stage to actual conflict.

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By Micah Halpern
Wednesday November 16, 2011

Column:

Internal divisions within the Muslim world are as old as Islam itself. Disputes and conflict have resonated throughout history.
This period of the Muslim year is known as Id al Adha. It is at the end of the month long Hajj, the Pilgrimage is no different from any other internal Islamic conflict. It all boils down to the conflict between the Shiites of Persian Iran - and the rest of the Sunnis of the rest of the Muslim world.

Mecca is the most holy site in Islam. In Mecca sits the Kabbah, a massive black stone, the focus of prayer for all Islam and the site to which 1, 500,000,000 Muslims from around the world yearn to make a Hajj, a pilgrimage.

The city of Mecca is located in Saudi Arabia and for some Muslims that is a problem.

There is a movement underway to re-orient Islam away from Mecca. The person at the forefront of this movement is a well respected Iranian Shiite cleric named Ahmad Alam al Hadi.

This Shiite cleric has his supporters. Al Hadi is trying to convince the greater world of Islam that Muslims should not pray towards, nor visit holy sites in, Saudi Arabia or Iraq because those countries are controlled by infidels. He asserts that the leadership of Saudi Arabia is empty of Islamic value and interested only in its own self preservation. He asserts that Iraq is run by the West. And al Hadi attacks the prevalent form of Islam in Saudi Arabia, Wahabism, as extremism and as not representative of true Islam.
Ahmad Alam al Hadi proposes an alternative site. He suggests replacing Mecca, the centerpiece of Islam, with Mashhad.

Do not pray to Mecca, he says, pray toward Mashhad. Do not make pilgrimage to Mecca, make pilgrimage to Mashhad. Reorient yourselves, he says, towards Mashhad which has been a spiritual capital of Islam for hundreds of years. These are very powerful statements coming from a respected religious leader and they have sparked significant debate.

The truth is that Mashhad is and has been a Muslim holy site, primarily for Shiite Muslims, but it also holds importance for Sunni Muslims. Al Hadi claims that Mashhad already accommodates 20,000,000 Iranian pilgrims and 80,000 foreign pilgrims every year and can certainly accommodate the greater onslaught of pilgrims who would be making their way to Iran.

On paper, the plan works. But Islam is not about progress or about change. Islam is about tradition. Even the use of the verb "to orient" is based on tradition. The word "orient" means "to the east." Every Muslim place of prayer contains a mikhrab, a prayer niche, and that prayer niche points in the direction of Mecca. Moving away from Mecca, replacing Mecca, would be a revolutionary move in the world of Islam - and a move that would foment an Islamic revolution.

The irony behind the choice of Mashhad as the new holy site in Islam should not be lost. Imam Raza, the 8th Imam and one of the most influential leaders in the development of Sufi Islam, is buried there. After Imam Reza was murdered in the year 818, probably poisoned to death, there was massive conflict over who should take control his Abbasid Empire. The fight was between his two sons. One son was the son of his Arab wife, the other was the son of his Persian wife. The Shiite Persian son won.

Internal historical conflicts between Islamic groups have very deep roots. So do linguistic traditions. Saudi Arabia is called the land of "Hijaz," an expression which really means the lands of the Hajj, the religious pilgrimage to Mecca. Iran can try to unseat Mecca as the holiest of holy sites, but they will fail - there are too many direct links to the Koran and Mohammed. When the move to change is approached from the perspective of serious Muslim scholarship which begins every investigation by examining the written word of the Koran and the teachings of the prophet Mohammad the argument to replace Mecca with Mashhad appears very, very weak.

Iran wants to take over the world. But first, the Iranians will have to conquer the Islamic world.

This is a good - even if unsuccessful, try. They will try and try again. Iran does not shy away from conflict and dispute.

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Tuesday November 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestine Prime Minister Salam Fayyad gave an interview to al Quds, an official Palestinian media outlet, yesterday.

In the interview Fayyad asserted that unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is a major objective and is an essential ingredient in moving ahead and gaining statehood. He referred to statehood as the "Palestinian dream."

He said: let there be a new prime minister.

Fayyad was never elected, instead, he was appointed by President Abbas in a move to oust Hamas from political power.

For Hamas, Fayyad is the symbol of the political power that was stolen from them by the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas has never accepted Fayyad as prime minister and it is no secret to anyone - including Fayyad, that in order to have any unity between Hamas and the PA, Fayyad must step aside.

The problem is that Fayyad is one of the only people in the Palestinian government who understands how a government should work and he is actively working for reforming in order to achieve some sense of government accountability and responsibility.

This is a Palestinian Catch - 22.

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Monday November 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The virus struck again.

Iran has been hit once again by a computer virus. This virus, which is very similar to the Stuxnet, is called DUQU.

Iran admitted that they have been hit and are saying that it is now under control.

Symantec (Norton) identified the worm on October 19th. It is hard to imagine that Iran managed to get it under control so quickly.

The DUQU virus attacks Windows fonts systems, it also gathers information and intel for further attacks. The virus has already been indentified in 12 countries - but the hacker community buzz is 100% certain that the target was Iran.

The name DUQU comes from the prefix of the file it creates. It looks like this ~DQ.

Stuxnet specifically attacked Siemens systems. Siemens controls water, electricity, gas, oil and of course, nuclear technology.

It is highly unlikely that Iran has either of these worms under control. The only way to know for sure is to actually use the weapons system.

DUQU is a major setback for Iran - and that is good news for the rest of the world.

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Sunday November 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The internet is lit up about the explosion in Iran at a missile base located only 25 miles outside of Teheran.

The explosion killed 17 members of the elite Revolutionary Guard, including a general.

Speculation is that the Israeli Mossad is behind the attack. The Mossad could not have done it on its own, so added speculation says that Israel acted together with MEK, the Mujahedeen e Kalq.

The MEK is a well organized anti-regime movement in Iran that has the very strong support of wealthy Iranians living in exile.

The word was that MEK, together with the Mossad, is responsible for a slew of attacks including those against the Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at other military installations over the past few years.That's the speculation. But the reality is that even if the Mossad supports these acts, it is highly unlikely that they are involved. It is almost impossible to run agents in Iran.

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Saturday November 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League suspended Syria. The suspension takes effect as of November 16.

I never thought it would happen.

This was such a surprise move that even caught many Arab League members unawares. It was 18 votes for suspension and only Yemen, Lebanon and, of course, Syria voting against the suspension.

The Arab League has been trying to pressure Syria top stop killing civilians. And each time, even after Syria agreed to stop the killing, it continued - sometimes just minutes and hours after the agreements were reached.

Last week another agreement was reached to stop the killing - and at least 250 civilians have been killed since then.

The Arab League is saying that they will now institute sanctions against Syria and they are calling all members to withdraw their ambassadors. They are walking the walk and talking the talk.

This move by the Arab League may be the most significant step towards ousting Assad.

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Friday November 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has warned Israel not to attack Iran.

Larijani made it clear that the Iranians are well prepared to defend themselves. He made it clear that should Israel attack, it will be very costly for Israel for the US and for their allies.

Of course, the Speaker did not call Israel by name. In Iran the conventional form is to refer to Israel only as the Zionist Entity and sometimes, as the Zionist Occupier.

The question is whether the Speaker was just bloviating or whether these were true threats.

Normally, in situations like this the more rhetoric Iran uses the less likely they are to strike - words are used to mask how weak they are. However, when Iran utilizes such heavy threat and rhetoric it also means that they are activating their proxies in the region.

Iran has a capable army. Iran also has a very serious set of surface to surface missiles. But it is much easier for Iran to turn up the rhetoric and activate their proxies than to launch an attack or a counter attack against Israel.

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Thursday November 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report is out. There is nothing new in the report, nothing we did not know from the outset. This exact report could have been written fifteen years ago.

For the past 15 years some of us have been warning about Iran's nuclear ambition - but to no avail. Most of the world, including the IAEA, has been blase, uninterested and downright apathetic to Iran's nuclear aspirations.

In many ways the IAEA actually helped Iran cloak and continue their development. The United States served the same role. They were always willing to give Iran another chance. And each time Iran received a new chance, they used it to improve on their technology.

The UN and the US could be considered "useful fools." Using the term "fools" at least posits that their role was not deliberately malicious. Although some say that the IAEA, under the leadership of Mohammed Baradei, was complicit in Iran's nuclear development. It is true that under the leadership the agency deliberately did not publish findings which were damning to Iran.

This IAEA report is based on foreign intel and strongly suggest that Iran is working to develop nuclear technology in order to create weapons. So what else is new?

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Wednesday November 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no explaining why the press did not pick up the story of how US President Obama and French President Sarkozy dissed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It happened last Thursday and the story has only just begun to get traction. It was a web site in France that broke the story and then the Israeli press ran with it. The New York Post covered the story, but it was a small piece. Then the Huffington Post and AOL posted it and Fox News ran it along with an interview with John McCain saying how embarrassing this is for the United States, and that Obama should know better.

When I tweet the incident I was asked for my sources - suggesting that it was all a made up incident, validated by the fact that the White House would not even make a comment about it.

This is yet another example of a very amateurish Middle East POV.

Even if he believes what he said and was not just politely agreeing with Sarkozy, Obama should never say these things. They will only come back to haunt him in the Jewish community. Even if Jewish donor and communal leaders agree with the president's assessment of Netanyahu they will never tell him that or make it public.

The US president owes the Israeli prime minister both a private and public apology. He has put his fundraisers in a very bad position and he has some more serious explaining to do to his Jewish donors and backers.

This is the same mistake that Obama made when speaking of the '67 borders. Certain things are quietly understood, but they are never voiced.

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Tuesday November 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Beware the open microphone, especially if you are a head of state.

Barack Obama and Nicholas Sarkozy have been caught in a flagrant faux pas.

Following a G-20 press conference, the two men began to talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They thought the conversation was private. But the mic was on and a room full of journalists, from around the world, were privy to a 3-4 minute scathing critique before the mistake was discovered.

As a courtesy, none of the journalists rushed to publish the story.

The essence of what they said goes like this:
Sarkozy - I can't stand him
Obama - You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him every day

The two leaders were there to discuss France's abstention on the question of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Obama was very displeased with the French conciliatory gesture.

Then the conversation veered to Netanyahu. They should have stuck to their official agenda.

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Monday November 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli strategists and the military have been considering the next, bad case, scenarios. Teams are training in order to try to prevent them from happening and to combat the possible attacks if they do happen.

The scenario that the army believes is almost certainly on the agenda is the mass kidnapping of a bus - a tourist bus, a school bus, maybe a city bus and then holding the hostages in exchange for prisoners in Israeli jails.

Some strategists believe that this was the motivation and the plan of Hamas terrorists who attacked a tourist bus en route to Eilat this past August. In the end, the terrorists were simply not successful in actualizing their complete plan. They attacked the bus, killed people aboard the bus, but were unable to kidnap the bus.

Two teams are training for this - one in the South of Israel and one in the North.

In the eyes of the military this mass kidnapping is a foregone conclusion.

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Sunday November 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed rumors that the PA would be supplying housing to the prisoners released from Israeli jails in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive for over five year by Hamas.

This admission has serious implications.

The released prisoners were all, in one form or another, terrorists.
Almost the entire PA budget comes from the United States, other Western countries and the United Nations.

These nations and organizations have made it very clear to the Palestinian Authority that no funds can be given, in any way, to terrorist activities.

The money cannot support terrorists or be used as reward for the families of terrorists. The money may not be given before or after acts of terrorism to anyone. No one involved in terror may benefit from the funds given for humanitarian aid.

Giving government-sponsored housing to these terrorist prisoners is in direct violation of the stipulations set down by the donor nations. Where else would Abbas and his government be getting the money?

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Saturday November 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Another flotilla was intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza. The flotilla consisted of two ships, one from Canada and a yacht from Ireland.

27 people, including crew and journalists (one Iranian journalist), were aboard.

The flotilla did not resist but neither did they heed warnings - they continued on their path toward Gaza after being warned away.

The Israeli Navy stopped the ships and towed the vessels and all the people aboard to the port of Ashdod. The participant journalists and crew were all processed by the police and border control. All of the people will be deported.

No weapons were on the ships. No medical or humanitarian aid was on board either. Ostensibly, the ships were claiming to be bringing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

This flotilla embarked on their journey to get publicity - nothing more and nothing less. Unfortunately for them, that has not happened. A few newspapers have written short pieces and there were some pictures, but this flotilla never made the splash the organizers had hoped for.

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Friday November 4, 2011

I've been thinking:

The Palestinians have changed strategy. They have decided not to apply for full membership status in all of the 16 United Nations agencies.

This shift is dramatic.

And it has come about because the Palestinians now realize what they have done- how by lobbying for and then receiving full membership status in UNESCO they have alienated and disenfranchised their major donors. The decision by the United States, Canada and even Israel to stop funding the Palestinians has effectively bankrupted the PA.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has stepped in and asked the Palestinian Authority to abort their plan. He said that the decision to become recognized members of the various UN agencies will result in the suffering of millions of Palestinian residents.

Israel is now stopping the transfer of taxes to the PA, taxes which come to about $100 million a month. This will strangle the PA.

The damage Palestinian leadership has done to itself is huge. Millions of Palestinians will starve. Millions will suffer terribly -and unnecessarily.

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Thursday November 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the Egyptian court found 73 people guilty of defiling and destroying the Israel Embassy in Cairo.

One might think that this was a significant symbol of justice for the new Egypt. But no - all 73 people were given suspended sentences.
That means that although these Egyptians were found guilty of perpetrating the crime, not one of them has or will be punished.

The gruesome attacks on the Israeli embassy took place just two months ago, on September 9th and September 10th. It was all caught on tape and available for everyone to see on You Tube. You see the aggressive behavior of hundred and hundreds if not thousands of angry Egyptians as they rip apart the building.

And all the while, the Egyptian army and the Egyptian police stood by and watched. This was an attack on one of the basic rules of diplomacy. A foreign embassy and staff are never to be threatened or touched. They are off limits. Those are the rules.

Those rules explain why the 73 were convicted. But the new Egypt does not care much for these rules - and that explains why the sentences were suspended.

The Egyptian authorities are telling their nation that even if you break the international norm, we are behind you.

Once again, welcome to the new Egypt.

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Wednesday November 2, 2011

I'm Predicting:

Over the past few days I have been predicting that if the rockets from Gaza do not stop and if Hamas does not act to try to prevent the launching of rockets, Israel will be forced to respond.

Israel will hold Hamas responsible for all the rockets shot from Gaza - even if they were launched by Islamic Jihad.

The Israeli Government voted to approve any and all military action to stop the rockets.

In lay terms, that means the Israeli cabinet has approved attacks on Hamas from land, from sea and from the air.

Expect strike forces on the ground, expect drone attacks, expect helicopter attacks striking at the heart of Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructures.

Expect different and creative reprisal attacks from Israel.

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Tuesday November 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is Islamic Jihad that is shooting rockets at Israel from Gaza.

Islamic Jihad, with the permission of Hamas.
I understand why Islamic Jihad is shooting at Israel, what I do not understand is why Hamas is permitting it to happen.

Islamic Jihad is trying to make a place for itself, trying to improve its stature and status in the Arab world. Hamas made their name and turned into a serious player as a result of the Gilad Shalit deal. Islamic Jihad wants to do the same.

Islamic Jihad also wants to show the Arab world that they can launch longer, better and more accurate rockets than Hamas - rockets that they got from Iran.

According to intel sources, Islamic Jihad has many more long range rockets than does Hamas. They have rockets with a range of 30 miles and it is those rockets that are hitting the Israeli cities of Beersheba, Ashdod and Asheklon.

When they send the rockets into Israel, Islamic Jihad is testing the range and accuracy of the product they received from Iran.

So why is Hamas permitting this to happen? Because Hamas is unaware of the potential threat from Islamic Jihad.

Hamas is sitting back and enjoying its success ... but Islamic Jihad has thousands of fighters. They are making a big splash - and it might very well cause the fall of Hamas.

If this situation continues, Israel will have no choice but to go in and actually unseat Hamas.

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