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Friday June 1, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The United States has condemned Russia for shipping arms to Syria.
A Russian cargo ship docked and unloaded massive amounts of weapons and then headed on to Greece.
The most important point to note in this scenario is that Russia is still selling high tech weapons to Syria. By doing so, they are telegraphing to the world that they do not believe that the regime of Bashar Assad is going to fall.
Russia also recently signed a fighter jet deal with Syria and will soon be delivering the YAK fighter jet to the Syrian air force. The YAK is one of Russia's most advanced weapons. They would not hand weapons of this caliber over to a teetering leader holding on by the skin of his teeth.
Russia has a very different point of view from the United States on what is happening in Syria.
When asked, the Russians cynically respond by saying that selling and delivering weapons to Syria is not illegal - it is just against the wishes of the United States.
Most significantly, selling to the Syrians is in the best interest of Russia.
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Thursday May 31, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The Flame computer virus is only now showing its power.
We now know that Flame can hijack any computer. We now know it can relay any and all information. And we now know that it can sabotage - everything.
It can also connect to any blue tooth phone or devise around the infected computer.
Iran says that Flame is now under control. I highly doubt that.
This program is the second stage of the Viper virus which struck a few months ago. At that time the Oil Ministry of Iran was taken off line to quarantine and destroy Viper. It failed.
Flame built on viruses that were already in place. These viruses appear to be quarantined - when found, but they simply become dormant. At that point they are almost undetectable.
Right now the 2.2 million barrels of oil extracted daily by Iran are in jeopardy. Trying to protect their oil industry by taking them off line as was done on Wednesday would strike another huge blow to Iran's economy.
Most analysts are looking at the nuclear implications. Yes, those are certainly significant. But now the Flame virus has attacked Iran's only real industry - oil.
The Flame virus is not only extremely effective, it is also extremely dangerous.
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Wednesday May 30, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Last week Iran met with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, the 5+1 as they are called. They met in Baghdad, Iraq.
After two days of meetings they concluded that they would meet again. This time they would meet in June, in Moscow.
Everyone assumed that the decision to meet again illustrated that the meeting in Baghdad was a success. But now more details are emerging.
The Obama administration was hoping that the small group pseudo secret meetings that have been taking place over the past five months would bear their fruit at this meeting. When asked, Jalili, the
Iranian head negotiator, said he had no knowledge of the meetings.
The Americans tried to shake his memory. Remember the Paris meetings with Dr Ali Bagheri, Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. And remember the Vienna dialogue with Hassan Rahani. Jalili said he had no idea what they were talking about and that this discussion started from square one.
This was a major blunder by the US and by the 5+1. They let Iran waste months of their time. Ana all the while the US thought that there was progress. Call it wishful thinking, diplomacy style.
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Tuesday May 29, 2012
I'm Predicting:
Iran was hit by another cyber virus. This one is even more devastating than the last three.
This new virus is called Flame. The virus just called for an evaluation of all the computers connected to the nuclear program.
The extent of this program is so great that it can turn computers on and off, take pictures, turn on microphones - it can literally act on its own and transmit all its own information.
Kaspersky antivirus is the source of information, because they detected the virus. Kaspersky is headquartered out of Moscow and I assume that they are the consultants working for Iran to try to isolate and contain this virus.
It seems that this virus, Flame, is very similar to the other viruses, Stuxnet that struck Iran in 2010, DUQU that hit Iran in 2011 and Viper that took over their computer systems in early 2012.
Kaspersky says that Flame can only be the product of a country dedicated to cyber warfare. They assert that this is not a bored teenager but 5,000 programmers at work. Interestingly, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have also been hit. Kaspersky says that they have found Flame there also.
I predicted that this would happen and I am absolutely certain that Iran will be attacked again within six months by another computer virus.
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Monday May 28, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The Olympics begin in London on July 27 in London.
The world is revving up - but Muslim athletes are in a real quandary.
This year Ramadan begins on July 20 and ends August 18. Ramadan is a month long fast. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night. For workouts and competitions and in order to maximize energy, output and strength, an athlete must east.
So what is a Muslim athlete to do?
One or two have said that they will delay their fast. Islamic law permits a Muslim to delay their Ramadan fast and make it up any time through the 8th month - the month before the next Ramadan. Provided, of course, the postponement is for a valid reason.
The reason cited in the texts is sickness. Muslim Olympic athletes will have to inquire whether their prep and competition is a valid reason to delay their fast. They are certainly healthy now, but they could cause grave damage to themselves if they fasted while continuing their regimen.
The athletes who compete in Olympic Games bring great honor to Islam and that, in and of itself, is often reason for a valid exception in Islamic law.
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Sunday May 27, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
As expected, the 1st quarter numbers are in for Israel’s exports. Israeli exports to Turkey dropped by 26% - no surprise there.
Also fallen during the same period were exports to the United States, with a 24% drop. The reason for that drop is a change in drug imports in the US.
Interestingly, at the same time exports to the UK and China all increased dramatically. China increased their imports from Israel by 15% which amounts to $540 million while England increased their import of Israel products by $650 million which is a whopping 84% increase over the 1st quarter of last year.
These figures are important – they demonstrate economic growth in Israel. This is especially significant in a world economy that is, for the most part, suffering.
Despite the issues it confronts Israel continues to export and to be a player in world markets. Turkey wants to try to punish Israel, but none the less, they still continue to import product only in a smaller quantity. Turkey still needs Israel.
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Saturday May 26, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
An ancient synagogue 2.5 miles north of Jericho was vandalized. Swastikas were scrawled on the walls and the phrase "Palestine is Ours" was written in Arabic.
The Naaran synagogue dates back 1500 years to the period between the 5th and 6th centuries. It has a magnificent mosaic floor and featured on that floor are the Hebrew words Shalom al Y'israel - Peace Upon Israel.
Why would anyone desecrate a synagogue? And why an ancient synagogue?
The name Naaran is found in the Bible in I Chronicles 7:28. This synagogue is evidence that Israel has real historic roots - right there, right in that spot.
There are many who have tried to revise history. Official Palestinian sites assert that there was no Jewish presence in the region and none the Temple Mount.
The Palestinians live by a rule: He who owns history owns the present and the future.
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Friday May 25, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The ballots have all been cast. Now Egypt and the world await the results. They are expected on Tuesday.
The top two contenders will square off in three week - the runoff is scheduled for June 16 and 17.
Over the past two days Egyptians went to the polls. There were 13,000 polling stations. There are 83 million Egyptians.
Speculation is that 20 million voted. I have heard that 50 million Egyptian voters were eligible, which seems very unlikely.
The Muslim Brotherhood is claiming that their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, has the lead. It is impossible to tell. There are no real exit polls. What can be said is that certain districts most certainly preferred Morsi while others preferred Amr Moussa, the secular candidate.
It will all remain unclear until the announcement is made on Tuesday. And even then I am certain that there will be irregularities in the collection and counting of ballots.
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Thursday May 24, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian elections began yesterday and continue today.
When presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq came to cast his ballot he was greeted with a barrage of shoes and stones. Shafiq was prime minister under Mubarak. He was also the former head of the air force, as was Mubarak.
Stones are obvious - but what is the significance of the shoes? In Islam, shoes are a classic curse.
Shoes are covered with the dirt of the earth. In Islam one removes shoes and washes their feet before prayer. The traveler is covered with the dirt of the road and everyone must clean their feet before prayer.
Throwing shoes is throwing all the dirt - physical and metaphorical, on the target. This time the target was Shafiq.
The shoe throw is not unusual in Islamic culture, it is a matter of practice. President George Bush was the target of two shoe throws. Ahmadinejad has also been the caught in footwear crosshairs.
I do not have high hopes for the election. However, I can say that today women are encouraged to vote in Egypt. That is a huge step forward.
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Wednesday May 23, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's official media has struck a very different tone these past few weeks.
Iranian media has reiterated that the person who makes policy in Iran is not Ahmadinejad, but the Grand Ayatollah the Supreme Leader - and that the Supreme leader has praised President Obama and is looking forward to signing the deal with the United Nations and to working together with the community of nations.
They have also been repeating the Supreme Leader's religious/legal stance about nuclear weapons.
They even quoted the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, just returned from Lebanon where he met with the leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, saying that he told Hezbollah not to attack Israel.
To top it all off, the official Iranian press has even been hinting that dialogue with the United States Is no longer out of bounds.
This is an entirely new face of Iran.
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Tuesday May 22, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Iran just discovered a very large oil deposit in the Caspian Sea. It is the first new oil to be discovered in the Caspian in over 100 years. Estimates place the find at 10-15 billion barrels.
The Iranians were drilling deep. They went 1.5 miles down in very windy areas that had until now discouraged drilling. They were actually looking for natural gas and they found crude oil.
This will amount to 7-10% of Iran's reserves and it will give them a huge boost at a time where they really need it.
The oil deposit is located in an area in the North far away from the Gulf and from the areas patrolled and monitored by the international community. The Caspian Sea provides a great set of outlets for the oil that will allow for the smuggling of natural resources right under the watchful eyes of international observers.
All in all, this is great news - for Iran.
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Monday May 21, 2012
I'm Predicting:
Yesterday, Benny Gantz, Israel's Military Chief of Staff, took off on a spontaneous visit to China.
Gantz and had accepted an invite from China's Vice President Xi Jinping. According to almost everyone, within the next few months Xi Jinping will become the next premier of China.
Gantz and Israel have important contacts that need cementing in China.
There will certainly be talk about Iran. No doubt Gantz and Xi Jinping will also speak about oil and of course, nuclear proliferation.
China wants to know if Israel intends to strike Iran. If yes, when?
Israel wants to know how much control China can exert on Iran. They want to know how effective that control can be and whether China can, with certainty, say that Iran is not interested in nuclear weapons -not in selling them and not in launching them.
I await the reports from this very important visit.
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Sunday May 20, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Iran passed their 2013 budget. It is equivalent to a whopping $462 billion.
This new budget is a reduction of 9% from the 2012 allocation. Iran is tightening its belt. Next year will be more difficult for them, especially if the cost of oil drops and the Iranians know that full well.
If, however, the cost of oil stays at $100/ barrel Iran will more than likely have more than enough to cover the budget.
That is what happened in the last quarter of 2011. The sanctions began to work and more and more countries began applying pressure on Iran. Just as the Western world began to believe that there was a chance that serious pressure could be brought upon the Iranians - the price of oil increased and so did Iran's profits.
Just this week Iraq overtook Iran as the second largest oil exporter in the region. And the price of oil per barrel has continued to drop and remains below $100.
These are signs that we must monitor closely.
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Saturday May 19, 2012
I'm Predicting:
The President of Iran has announced that he wants to attend this year's summer Olympics hosted in London.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that he wants to accompany his young athletes and show them support. The statement was covered in great detail by the Iranian news media, explaining just how much pride the Iranian team brings to the Islamic Republic.
Great Britain, however, is not very pleased with the Iranian leaders desire to attend. It is not yet clear if an official request has been submitted by the Iranians.
Given the nature of the Olympics and the important message of the Games which is that the Olympics is above politics and symbolizes the ability of nations to compete in the sports arena and not fight battles that threaten and endanger human lives - it would be highly unlikely for England to deny this request.
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Friday May 18, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iran threatened to sue Google.
From the Iranian point of view, the suit has great merit and touches upon a critical issue. It involves Iran's identity and her pride.
It is about her history and about her name.
In their Google Maps section, Google has renamed the peninsula that had once been called the Persian Gulf and Peninsula. They are now calling it the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula.
This battle over names has been an ongoing and fierce fight in the region. It was the cause the cancelation of the Pan Islamic games.
Arab countries in the region insist on calling the water and region the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran thinks otherwise.
The reality is that Google can call it whatever name it wants - provided it is an established name. And Iran has the right to block Google and Google Maps and prevent it from being received on Iranian computer networks.
But that is, to their chagrin, all the recourse available to the Iranians.
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Thursday May 17, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Ampal - American Israel Corp., the Israeli energy company, owns 12.5% of East Mediterranean Gas, the Egyptian owned company that exports natural gas to Israel and Jordan.
Yesterday Ampal wrote off their investment and gave it up. They have been invested in the company for 20 years.
Their pipeline was being bombed on an almost monthly basis. And when the first quarter figures came in, it became apparent that Ampal was taking big losses. Some tanking was expected but the dollar figures more than proved the point. Last year Ampal made $17 million in the first quarter. This year's first quarter losses showed $215 million.
No company can justify that loss.
Ampal, the Israelis and the American investors all need to cut their losses and run.
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Wednesday May 16, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
There has been an explosion in the oil pipeline in Syria. The bombing was originally reported by Syrian rebels and then it was reported in the Syrian press. The press also reported that pipelines had been bombed by rebel forces on April 21 and April 29.
There are several important issues here. Syria is not a player in the world oil market so the destruction of these oil lines will have no impact on world prices. Syrian production is already at 30% of what it was before the rebellion.
The explosion/s will, however, have a serious impact on Syrian cash flow. Oil is extremely fungible and the Syrians need the cash so they need to export whatever they can. The EU has a block against Syrian oil.
Convenience in shipping is very important and this oil is easily piped to the ports, loaded onto tankers and shipped. The best partner for oil from Syria is Iran they use tankers which are flags for hire. They get the crude and take it where it needs to go. But right now many Iranian tankers are filled with oil and sitting, waiting for a port of call to unload their black gold.
It seems that the pressure being applied to Iran is impacting, perhaps even more strongly and effectively, on Syria.
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Tuesday May 15, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt is suffering from a double health crisis. This kind of public health disaster has the potential to devastate not only Egypt but the entire region, including Israel.
Egyptian animals and livestock are suffering from both Foot and Mouth Disease and from Avian Flu.
Millions of animals are sick at this stage, there is almost no stopping the diseases. The Avian Flu has been spread by animals infecting humans. Egypt has had 60 deaths so far and almost 200 people are known to be infected with the deadly flu. More than any other county outside of Indonesia.
The Foot and Mouth Disease was imported from Libya during the uprising when
more than 10% of Libyan livestock were killed because of it. In order to avoid the losses herds were hurried across the border into Egypt and now much of the meat is contaminated.
The only method of stopping these diseases, outside of mass slaughter, is to isolate or inoculate. Because of the current status of the army and the lack of any faith in government there is almost no chance that anything will be done. $1.8 million worth of shots arrived in March, but they have barely been used.
This could destroy the protein sources of the region and spill back into Libya, Sudan, Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.
This is serious.
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Monday May 14, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian presidential front runner Abul Fotouh said, in a late Saturday night interview, that the treaty with Israel is a security risk to Egypt.
He said: "It should be revised."
In an earlier debate with Amr Mousa, another presidential contender, Abul Fotouh called Israel "the enemy." He also called Israel a racist state. Speaking about the treaty he said: "It is a treaty that forbids Egypt from exercising full sovereignty in the Sinai and allows Israelis to enter Sinai without visas, while they need visas for Cairo."
His take on Osama bin Laden is the quintessential example of the world view of this man who may yet become the next president of Egypt. Abul Fotouh refused to condemn bin Laden as a terrorists. He said that if bin Laden was tried by a real court it would be different. But there was no trial. He was not found guilty. He was not a terrorist.
That is his logic.
Abul Fotouh is called the liberal Muslim.
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Sunday May 13, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Last week I was critical of Turkey and of the Turkish economy. The S&P had downgraded them and I explained that it was a direct result of their economic and diplomatic POV. That POV, I explained, made them an economic risk - or at least no longer an exceptional economic choice. As I wrote, Turkey went ballistic over the downgrade.
Well, at the end of last week Moody's - which is the other index or rating company, downgraded Israel from stable to negative.
Israel was downgraded for several reasons. A high percentage of domestic bank loans to huge Israeli corporations was one very important reason.
Geopolitical tensions was another important reason given for the downgrade. These tensions make international investment in Israel risky. Moody's was referring to the Arab Spring and to threats from Iran.
The report stated that in the past these tensions have not stopped Israel from growing, that Israel has bounced back and has been able to show creativity and economic stability despite the risk factors. This is a critical factor in understanding the position of Israel within the region.
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Saturday May 12, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Saudi Arabia just committed to a gargantuan aid package to Egypt. I know, I know --- didn't Saudi Arabia make the same pledge last year?
Last year the Saudis pledged 3.7 billion but, because of the turbulence in Egypt, they never followed thru with the money.
This year, on Thursday, Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million in aid. They also committed to depositing $1 billion into the Egyptian Central Bank.
And, as if that was not enough, Saudi Arabia committed to supplying Egypt with $250 million worth of butane gas which is used for cooking.
Egypt has also asked the IMF for $3.2 billion in aid.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Egypt in a few weeks. Saudi Arabia will want to make certain that Egypt is stable before they send over that hard cold cash.
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Friday May 11, 2012
I've Been Thinking
Just hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wrapped up a two day diplomatic blitz in India, a huge bombshell drops.
The Clinton visit was all about getting on board against Iran. Clinton was pressuring India to restrict their oil imports from Iran.
Here is the bomb: Within hours after the visit, India and Iran signed a deal - a trade deal. Ostensibly, the deal is for India to provide sugar, rice and soybeans to Iran. In reality, it is a barter for oil.
Iran gives oil to India. India pays for the oil with sugar, rice and soybeans. This way, Iran does not have rupee problems and currency issues - and India is not in trouble for violating international sanctions by giving Iran US dollars.
We know this is happening because Iran has always been skittish about taking rupees. In February Iran took payment of only 45% in currency for their oil shipments.
This is a classic diplomacy story with the United States. Allies agree with the United States when they talk to the United States, and when the conversation is over, they turn around and do whatever is in their own best interests. The US has not yet learned that lesson
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Thursday May 10, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The rebels in Syria are striking at military targets. A Syrian army convoy was hit by a roadside bomb Wednesday injuring 6 soldiers.
The report was issued by a foreign journalist traveling with UN observers. The bomb exploded seconds after the UN convoy passed. The UN observers and the journalist had a perfect view of the explosion and its aftermath.
Roadside bombs are a menace. They were the most dangerous tool used by al Qaeda against US troops in Iraq. They were used against civilians and against pilgrims.
The use of a roadside bomb by Syrian rebels is a classic tool taken from the al Qaeda handbook.
This bomb was very sophisticated. It was remote control operated. The controller was within eye view of the explosion and ignited the bomb either by radio frequency or by cell phone.
If road side bombs become common place in Syria the cost in lives could be extremely high.
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Wednesday May 9,2012
I've Been Thinking:
Here is my insight into the new unity government in Israel.
The newly elected head of Kadima is a perfect partner for the Likud leader. Shaul Mofaz is a hawk on issues of security. He served as defense minister under Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and was a successful chief of staff of the IDF, Israel's army. He is Iranian by birth, born in Teheran, to parents who came, originally, from Isfahan. His given name was Shahram Mofazzez Zadeh, a very ethnic sounding name - Shaul Mofaz has the ring of a true Israeli name.
Mofaz deeply understands Iranians, not just their language but also their mind set. He has a more liberal point of view than does Netanyahu on economics and social welfare. They are the perfect counter balance to each other.
Kadima is really a center- center/left party. And Likud is center -center/right. The coalition they have formed is now strongly center based. It is so strongly center that even if a party or two on either side of the spectrum should decide to leave the coalition it will have no impact on the stability of the government.
This is not an insider baseball issue. The ramifications of this newly formed coalition in Israel will not affect only Israeli society. This broad unity government under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu and then Shaul Mofaz has carte blanch on issues connected to security, Iran, and the Palestinians peace process -issues of vital import to the greater region and to the West.
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Tuesday May 8, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Al Qaeda released a new video yesterday which is now on Youtube. On the video 70 year old captive American human rights consultant Warren Weinstein sits crossed legged and begs President Obama for his life.
The video has the prisoner telling Obama that his life is in his hands and that he, like the president, is the father of two daughters. He asks the president to do what the terrorists ask.
Weinstein was kidnapped in Pakistan last August and this is the first real evidence that he is still alive. His wife in Maryland was relieved to see that, despite losing weight, her husband Warren seemed to be otherwise okay.
Kidnappings are common, but most of the time, the kidnappers demand a ransom. The kidnappers are mostly tribal. This is a kidnapping with a twist. This is an al Qaeda ala Khalid Sheik Mohammed style kidnapping, akin to the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl.
There is no way to negotiate with al Qaeda.
I hope and pray that this kidnap victim will have a different fate.
I hope but I am not hopeful.
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Monday May 7, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
No one should be surprised that Khalid Sheik Mohamed and his cohorts are using their trial to advance their own agenda.
Of course that is what they are doing. The United States presented these ultimate thugs with a stage and with an open microphone.
Did the powers that be in the super power called the United States think that after nine years in prison KSM would be rehabilitated, that he would suddenly respect the institutions of Western liberal democracy and humbly submit to its august power. This is the same man who masterminded the 9-11 attacks and beheaded Daniel Pearl because of what the Wall Street Journal symbolically represented.
The delusional decision makers, those who determined that an open trial was an appropriate forum, should be ashamed. They should be reprimanded, charged with incompetence for putting 9-11 victims and families through an unnecessary and pre-ordained ordeal, for subjecting them to the language and actions of the men who have now twice desecrated them and their loved ones.
This was the moment the terrorists were yearning for, it was another dream come true.
In the eyes of the terrorists the only way it could have been better was if they were given a totally public trial in civilian court.
There were celebrations across terrorist networks as reports circulated of their comrades-in-arms spitting, not only on the graves of the deceased, but also in the face of the US judicial system.
These thugs have once again become terrorist role models.
But this time it is we who put them in the limelight.
Shame, shame, on us.
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Sunday May 6, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is spending Sunday and Monday in India. According to an aid travelling with her, at the top of the agenda is convincing India to reduce their import of oil from Iran.
This is a very noble task. It is also herculean and an almost impossible feat to accomplish.
Of course, India will agree to curtail or limit or reduce or all of the above their import of oil from Iran - but they cannot.
India is an economic beast, they are the second largest nation in the world with well over a billion people - and they need oil.
Anytime extra oil pops up on the open market India gobbles it up.
This is a clear example of ideas coming into conflict with reality. India favors isolating Iran but they need the oil and cannot risk a lull. So India will continue to quietly import their oil from anywhere, including Iran.
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Saturday May 5, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Standard and Poor's is the most influential rating agency in the world. They rate countries and they rate their credit.
This week Turkey was dropped from "positive" to "stable." And if you had asked me, I would have said that I was surprised it was not dropped even lower. Turkey would have dropped even more had it not been for some very dynamic economic legislation.
This will certainly drop the credit rating of Turkey and that drop in credit rating will immediately impact on their interest which means that the cost of their loans will skyrocket.
The Turks are livid - on the same day the S&P dropped their rating, they improved the rating on Greece.
Turkey is claiming bias and the president of Turkey has announced that Turkey no longer relies on the S&P.
The reality is that Turkey only had minimal growth of 4% in 2011 and expect only 2% this year. Exports are only 24% of their economy and prices increased 11% in April. China holds most of their debt and the debt is in the form of a short term loan.
Turkey can be as angry as they want but they are in bad economic shape and it ony looks worse in the short term future.
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Friday May 4, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The Vice President of Iran just wound up a visit to Hezbollah-controlled Southern Lebanon and Southern Beirut.
Muhammad Reva Rahimi stood on the Lebanese side of the border and looked over into Israel. He spoke about the need to continue resistance which, in his terms, means terror. He said that Israel is doomed.
Rahimi met with Hezbollah leader Sheik Hass Nasrallah.
Dignitaries do not regularly meet with Hezbollah. Only Iranians does, because Iran is an ally of Hezbollah.
It should be noted, however, that according to a leak that was spread earlier this week EU representatives met with Hezbollah in order to see how Hezbollah can use their influence in Syria and Southern Lebanon to maintain clam.
When it became obvious and clear that indeed it was true that Hezbollah and the European Union met, Israel blew a gasket -diplomatically speaking.
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Thursday May 3, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Wednesday was a slice of life day in the Middle East.
On Wednesday we were given a glimpse of both the deep seated problems and dangers inherent in the region as well as the topsy turvy nature of today's Middle East.
It was a very bloody day.
In Syria, opponents to the regime successfully killed 20 military personnel including two colonels. It is the largest number of deaths in any single strike to date since the revolt against the regime began.
In Egypt, 20 protesters were murdered by a group of hooligans.
Witnesses report that the protesters were sitting down when a group of thugs emerged and violently attacked them. Conventional wisdom is that these thugs were part of an organized, civilian, plain clothed group of police and military. They were sent in to intimidate - and ended up killing.
In Syria the attack was against the military. In Egypt the attack was against the protesters. Situation and places could have easily been inverted.
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Wednesday May 2, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The head UN international observer in Syria made a very important observation yesterday.
He said that both sides are violating the ceasefire.
Yes, Assad's men are violating the ceasefire - but so, too, are the rebels.
This conflict is more complicated than it appears. Most of the rebels are from al Qaeda and most of the recent attacks have been perpetrated by them.
The observers will increase their number over the next few weeks from 28 to 300. But this will not bring a ceasefire. The job of the observers is to observe.
Most of the real rebels have gone back to school, fled, been killed or arrested.
The Syrian army has successfully cracked down and destroyed almost all local rebel movements. Now we are witnessing a new style of attack - car bombs and suicide bombs and attacks at large populated hangouts.
These are all al Qaeda tactics.
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