Wednesday June 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Day in, day out, the polls keep coming in. It is, after all, a presidential election year.

The most telling and truthful polls will only emerge a few days after both the Democratic and Republican conventions conclude.

Immediately following each convention the parties get a bump. Then tensions and temperaments calm down and that is when the polls that are worth paying attention to come in.

A few days ago poll came out and caught my eye. It was sponsored by Workmen's Circle aka the Yiddish Workers Association.

The final results of their internet survey of 1000 people showed a 68 / 32 Obama / Romney split. That would put it 10 points off the 2008 78 / 22 Obama / McCain split, and still have two thirds of Jews voting Democratic.

On closer look, that is not what the survey showed at all.
The actual results of the survey showed a 59 / 27 split with 14% undecided. The pollsters just divided the 14% in exact proportions - 59% of 14 going to Obama and 27% of 14 going to Romney.

Undecided voters swing. They can go either way, they do not breakdown proportionally.

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