Friday July 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are rising in the straits of Hormuz, that tiny water way through which 1/3 of the world's oil passes every day.

Iran is making plans. Some of those plans will be radical than others. Certainly the Iranians have plans to shut the straits and/or to sink a ship and/or to mine the straits. They will most probably squeeze and slow down the already narrow water way.

The United States is countering. They are sending slews of unmanned subs capable of deactivating or simply exploding underwater minefields. They are also sending more aircraft carriers and accompanying fleets. By August there should be four US carrier fleets in the area along with France's sole carrier, the Charles De Gaulle.

The 5th fleet which is normally in the Gulf and the 6th fleet which is normally in the Mediterranean are already there. US power in the region will include the Eisenhower, Enterprise, Stennis and the Lincoln, all on the coast of Iran.

That is a lot of firepower and many boots. The United States means to intimidate. But what if Iran simply slows things down? How will the US respond?

If the United States is too heavy handed, they will play right into the Iranian game.

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