Sunday May 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Within two days Israel has twice struck targets in Syria. The fact that Israel is not confirming the strikes is normal and not a serious issue.

What is very important is that these strikes, one on Friday morning and one on Sunday morning, speak of a plan with a larger objective - not simply a onetime aerial strike.

Identifying the exact targets of the strikes has been more difficult.
If Friday morning's air strike was undertaken only to prevent game changing rockets from moving into Hezbollah control, which is a modest objective, why strike again on Sunday?

The Sunday attack came because the message that Israel was sending out on Friday was not heard by the Syrians. It looks like the target of the Sunday attack was an airport near Damascus, a storage and transfer site.

There has been much guessing about whether Israel crossed Syrian airspace to carry out these missions. The problem with that theory is that the Russians are in control of the space. There are ample methods of attack by missiles that do not put Israeli pilots and planes at risk.

One method would have been to fly over Lebanon. The other option is use smart bombs like the "Popeye." The Popeye can be shot dozens of miles away from the target. It hugs the ground. That could easily have been the choice of weapon.

Further details will emerge - with time.

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