Thursday May 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria, the pendulum swings almost daily.

After several weeks of momentum on the side of the Assad regime, the pendulum has begun to swing back and forth. From Assad to the rebels to Assad and now back towards the rebels.

Momentum is about "feeling." Big wins, losses, massacres - the triumphs and tragedies of war - are what cause the momentum to shift.

The rebel group al Qaeda al Nusrah captured a Syrian army base killing 40 soldiers and Assad affiliates. The base is near Nayrab which is on the road from Aleppo going west to the Mediterranean Sea.

This was a huge blow to Assad. Not just because he lost 40 soldiers but because he lost them to al Qaeda. In addition, the army base was on an extremely crucial access point.

The Syrian forces were not the best trained or the best equipped, but losing to al Qaeda was a significant psychological setback for Assad's soldiers.

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