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Wednesday July 31, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The first round of peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is over and now. The talks were short and painless.
There are very low expectations for these negotiations towards peace. Ironically, low expectations work to the benefit of the talks. When people think nothing will result, then something actually can emerge from the negotiations.
The most important decision to emerge from the two meetings is the decision to meet again. That meeting will, most probably, take place in two weeks. It was also agreed that, at a minimum, the talks will last nine months. And the talks will deal with all the substantive issues including borders, refugees, Jerusalem and security.
Both the Israeli and the Palestinian street is conflicted about the meetings.
Some say: what is there to lose. Others say: what a waste of time. So far, the optimists have defeated the pessimists.
The first of the two meetings included a Ramamdan Iftar (break fast) eaten after sunset. The second meeting the next day was a working meeting at the State Department.
This formula did not guarantee success - but having only two meetings protected against the potential for certain and immediate failure.
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Tuesday July 30, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
As Israeli and Palestinian negotiation teams meet and dine in Washington DC, another Palestinian guest is visiting and cementing relations elsewhere in the world.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is visiting Cairo. Abbas is giving his blessing to the interim government and to the removal of Mohammed Morsi.
It is pretty simple. Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood party were very close supporters of Hamas. Hamas is actually an intellectual outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood. And Hamas is the political nemesis of Abbas and the PLO.
Going to Egypt and embracing the new interim government was a slap in the face to Morsi, to the Brotherhood and to Hamas.
This visit to Egypt is intertwined with the current charges against Morsi. One of the charges against him is escaping from prison during the uprising against Mubarak. And the prison break that freed Morsi was organized and perpetrated by Hamas.
Abbas is publicly taking sides. But it is no secret that he never trusted either Morsi or the Brotherhood because of their close ties to Hamas.
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Monday July 29, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The West needs to understand exactly what the point of view of the Muslim Brotherhood is. Their rhetoric is extremely hateful and very dangerous.
Mohammed Badie is the supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, he is known as the Supreme Guide. Badie is the 8th person to hold that position and has been the Supreme Guide since 2010.
And I quote: "I swear by God that what al Sisi (the head of the Egyptian army who led the campaign to oust Morsi) did in Egypt is more criminal than if he had carried an ax and demolished the holy Kaaba, stone by stone."
Badie also said: the "Zionist fingers are at play in countries of the Arab Spring, so as to fulfill the vision of the Great Israel."
He said that Sisi and the Egyptian army are: "committing massacres the likes of which we have only seen committed by the bitter Zionist enemies and their treacherous agents."
Badie called Sisi worse than Pharoah, who killed children. He said: Sisi and the army "are worse -- you kill everybody."
Badie has said that the values of the current interim government and of Sisi are inverted. In the world according to Badie the current regime in Egypt twisted the truth in such a manner that communication with Gaza is considered a crime while communication with the "Zionist enemy" is considered an honor.
It is hard to misunderstand the way in which Badie views the world.
The worst crime anyone can commit, according to Badie, is to be allied with Israel and the West.
That is the face of the Muslim Brotherhood. That is the voice of the Muslim Brotherhood. That is the mindset of the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Sunday July 28, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Israeli cabinet approved the decision to release 104 prisoners, all of whom were convicted of acts of terrorism against Israelis.
The prisoner release is a stimulus to entice the Palestinians to come back to the table and resume peace negotiations. Of course, acts such as this one are never officially called "preconditions" because for years we have been told that there are no "preconditions" for talks.
Israel is wrenched by the decision. The families of the soon-to-be victims are divided. There is much pain in making a decision, a political decision, to release prisoners convicted of such heinous crimes as terror.
Naphtali Bennett the head of The Jewish Home Party said this about the cabinet decision:
"We once released a terrorist in exchange for a live soldier, then we released hundreds of terrorists for a live soldier, then terrorists for a dead soldiers and now 100 terrorists for a
'process'. We teach the world that everything is negotiable with us."
His comments strike a very powerful cord.
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Saturday July 27, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
I have written about this before.
It happened in Iran and it happened in several of the Gulf states. And now it happened in Turkey.
A bird with an Israeli tag was arrested for espionage.
The bird was thought to be a spy with cameras and microchips or even -explosives. After an investigation which included an x-ray this bird, like others, was set free to fly away.
The bird that was just arrested in Turkey had a metal ring tag on its leg which read 24311 Tel Avivunia Israel. Of course, that would frighten any reasonable person who would then frantically call the police and the secret security service. This particular bird was found and captured in the Agin district of the eastern province of Elazig.
The incident was reported in the national Turkish newspaper Hurriyet - usually a reliable source. In this case at, least, Hurriyet maintained a sense of humor and concluded their piece with the sentence:
"Following the tests, the authorities decided not to press official charges and the falsely accused bird was free to fly away."
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Friday July 26, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
I am in favor of the renewal of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. I think that peace is preferable to war. But I am not hopeful about these talks.
The word is that the talks will begin in Washington, DC on this coming Tuesday.
Here is one of the reasons why I am not hopeful:
Palestine Media Watch has made us aware that on their official Fatah Facebook page Palestinian leadership is teaching the masses about, and celebrating the murders of, sixty seven Israelis and they are honoring the murderer.
The Palestinian Authority is honoring Abdallah Barghoutti, a master bomb maker, who successfully created the bombs that ripped through the Sbarro restaurant in Jerusalem, the Ben Yehudah pedestrian mall in Jerusalem, the Hebrew University cafeteria and his list goes on. Look at the list below, it comes straight from the PA Facebook page.
How on earth do Israel and the United States expect to make progress towards peace when the authorized websites of the PA broadcast this and other, similar messages? How?
The following is the full text of the official Fatah Facebook page:
"The brave prisoner, Abdallah Barghouti, who has the longest [prison] sentence in the history of the Palestinian cause"
Text on photo:
"The free prisoner Abdallah Barghouti
Personal information:
Born in Kuwait in 1972.
Married and father of one son and two daughters: Osama, Tala and Safa.
Studied electrical engineering in South Korea.
Date of arrest: March 5, 2003.
His self-sacrificing activity: Planning a series of Martyrdom-seeking operations (i.e., suicide terror attacks) during 2000-2003:
- The Sbarro restaurant operation in Jerusalem which killed 15 Zionists
- The Moment Cafe operation which killed 11 Zionists
- The Sheffield Night Club operation which killed 15 Zionists
- The Hebrew University operation which killed 9 Zionists
- The Ben Yehuda pedestrian mall operation which killed 11 Zionists
Prison sentence: 67 life sentences.
Recipient of the longest [prison] sentence in the history of the Palestinian issue."
[Official Facebook page of the Enlistment and Organization
Commission of Fatah, July 22, 2013]
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Thursday July 25, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
I did not think that it would happen - but it did.
The US suspended the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. The jets were supposed to be delivered in the coming weeks. It was all part of a deal signed in 2010.
In 2012 The United States and Egypt agreed on a $2.5 billion military contract in which the US would deliver twenty F-16's. Four were delivered earlier this year and four more are scheduled for delivery.
Now the delivery of the fighter jets has been temporarily suspended. The Department of Defense says that given the current situation in Egypt it is best to watch and wait and see how things turn out before delivering the military equipment.
US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called his Egyptian counterpart, General Sisi, to give him the news.
At this point it would be unwise for the United States to transfer sophisticated weaponry that could potentially fall into the hands of enemies. And that is what George Little, spokesman for the Pentagon, meant when he said. "Just given the overall situation in Egypt right now we thought it prudent to make this decision."
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Wednesday July 24, 2013
I'm Predicting:
Over the past few weeks both US and Israeli defense agencies have concluded that the civil war in Syria may not end quickly. This analysis is an important recognition that the conflict is much deeper than expected.
At the beginning the United States felt that anyone who opposed Assad was good and hence, they would be victorious. The US has now concluded that both sides are bad.
The pendulum has swung back and forth several times already and both the US and Israel think that the momentum might swing back and forth several more times.
I see the situation differently.
Day after day I see the Assad regime striking and attacking and retaking and gaining. While there have been several isolated rebel victories, for the past ten weeks there has been an overwhelming amount of success on the side of the regime.
There is an unevenness in Western reportage. Rebel successes are touted and the wins by the Assad regime are not at all well reported to the West.
But when ones follows local press in Syria and Lebanon it becomes clear that the regime is inflicting serious losses on the rebels.
And when you read chat boards of the Muslim movements they announce huge numbers of deaths in Syria and advertise for fighters to come to Syria to help oust the regime.
Contrary to Israeli and Unites States opinion, I predict that by the end of the summer it will all be over in Syria.
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Tuesday July 23, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Remember Abu Ghraib, that notorious Iraqi prison where US guards took pictures of Iraqi prisoners. Well, the prison is in the news again.
On Sunday and on into Monday a full scale prison break - actually, a full scale military assault on a relatively secure facility - led to the escape of 500 highly dangerous prisoners, all from al Qaeda and almost all convicted and sentenced to death. All of the prisoners were al Qaeda leaders.
The Abu Ghraib prison break took place simultaneously with another
prison break, in Taji, 20 miles north of Baghdad.
The Abu Ghraib operation was very well planned and executed.
Two suicide bombers drove cars packed with explosives into the gates of the prison blowing them open. Another two suicide bombers, on foot, detonated their explosives killing themselves thereby allowing the prisoners to escape. Mortars and RPGs were used to destroy the towers and attack the guards.
Other al Qaeda forces were positioned to prevent US reinforcements from entering the prison. As the battle ensured 500 Al Qaeda prisoners escaped. Control was not restored until Monday. A handful of escapees were recaptured, the rest are long gone.
There are two immediate ramifications from the prison breaks.
Number one, these people will be used to alter the momentum in the now Shiite-led Iraq. Number two, these daring escapes will motivate more al Qaeda forces to enter Syria in order to try and defeat Assad.
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Monday July 22, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has rejected the idea of Israel and the Palestinians re-embarking on peace talks.
Iranian media has been filled with comments by the foreign ministry denouncing the talks. Abbas Araqchi, spokesman for the foreign ministry, has been especially vocal on the subject.
He said: "Past experience shows that the occupying Zionist regime is basically not ready to pay the price for peace since war mongering and occupation lie at its very core."
He called for: "self-determination for the Palestinians, the return of all refugees to their ancestral land, and the creation of an integrated Palestine with al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital."
In our world, who is against talks? How bad can talks be? Peace can only help both sides. At least, that is the conventional wisdom.
But what if accepting Israel and signing a peace deal is anathema to a tradition and a story line and thesis? What happens when the new narrative that is played out, one in which Palestinians and Israelis agree and there is progress towards peace, would be destructive to the old guard?
That would be dangerous. And that frightens Iran.
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Sunday July 21, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The UN pressed the interim leadership of Egypt on the issue of Human Rights.
They wanted to know why Morsi, his colleagues and his allies are being held prisoner and asked if the current interim regime has plans to bring them to trial.
It is a valid question - but totally misplaced. Egypt cannot try Morsi for making colossal decisions. Bad decisions are not illegal. Getting bad advice is not a crime.
But it was cause to oust him.
Once ousted, Morsi must be held along with his cohorts so they do not incite riots or violence that could cause massive numbers of injuries or loss of lives. In addition, his own life is in danger because of the political crisis he precipitated. For the time being Mohammed Morsi is actually safer in protective custody than he would be anywhere else.
There are rumors that Morsi could be tried for escaping from jail during the Mubarak regime. But that, too, is unlikely. It is also unlikely that, at that time, he was arrested and convicted in a manner which would be considered due process today. So trying Morsi for escaping from a jail during the totalitarian regime of Mubarak is hardly a popular cause.
The UN should just watch Morsi, make certain that his accommodations are comfortable. I am told they are - actually much more comfortable than the jail cell Hosni Mubarak now calls home.
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Saturday July 20, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
There have been several recent and important reports of chemical weapon stores in Syria.
The reports relate to weapon transfers and to stores that have been discovered.
The first report came by way of a spokesman from the Free Syrian Army, a group that is recognized by the United States and the West as a legitimate rebel force fighting the Assad regime.
The spokesperson said that at a location near Damascus chemical weapons were transferred to Hezbollah by the Assad regime. This transaction was also reported in the Lebanese news.
In another report the Assad regime claimed that they had discovered a large cache of chemical weapons that were being stored by the rebels. That stockpile was found in a neighborhood in Damascus.
For a year already there have been credible intelligence reports regarding Syria and chemical weapons. Agencies have been maintaining that both sides in the Syrian conflict have chemical weapons. And then just recently, the United States confirmed that Assad has used limited chemicals.
None of this is good news. Not for Syrians, not for the region.
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Friday July 19, 2013
I'm Predicting:
The tide of the conflict in Syria is changing.
Yesterday, during the White House briefing, Jay Carney said this:
"And while there are ups and downs on the battlefield and changes in momentum, the fact is Bashar al-Assad will never again rule Syria in the way that he did before and the Syrian people demand, rightfully, new leadership and a new government."
"And we are focusing our efforts to help bring about the day when a transition can take place that will help Syria turn the corner towards a cessation of violence and reconciliation, and the possibility of a government that respects the rights of all of Syria's people."
The real meaning of it all is this:
Assad is now winning and when Assad resumes total control he will not rule the way he once did.
I would speculate that once Assad takes back control, he will brutally destroy his enemies - like even he has never done before. Then, he might begin some liberalizing measures.
Liberalizing Syria will only come after all those who rose up against the president are dead or exiled.
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Thursday July 18, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
News has leaked about what really transpired in the five hour dinner meeting held on Tuesday in Amman, Jordan between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Five hours is a very long meeting even by Middle Eastern standards - and there is only so much one can eat. So what really happened?
The Palestinians want an airport. They want an airport in Ramallah.
The United States will propose to the Israelis that the airport be for small aircraft and helicopters. The Palestinians want the airport, in Area A, to be totally controlled by them.
Gaza, by the way, had an airport. It was targeted by Israel during Operation Cast Lead and has never been rebuilt.
This is a classic precondition- but honestly, it is easily doable.
But the Palestinians also want something else.
The Palestinians want a map change. They want access to the Dead Sea.
They say they want the map change for tourism and to build hotels. That would mean changing certain parts of Area C and making them Area B.
That request is not so easily doable.
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Wednesday July 17, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Guess what?
US Secretary of State John Kerry is back in the Middle East. On Tuesday night he wrapped up a meeting with Palestinian President in Amman, Jordan.
The United States, using Kerry as the vehicle, is pushing both Israel and the Palestinians to the negotiations table. Truth be told, the US is pressuring the Palestinians in ways that we had not yet seen coming out of Washington during the Obama administration.
The US is, of course, pressuring Israel, too - but that is commonplace. And Israel actually understands the gestures the United States must make to entice the Palestinians to come to the table and resume talks.
The Palestinians have been very reluctant to move without real assurances of real concessions by Israel. But the United States cannot give them those assurances. That is the purpose of the DIRECT talks. If the US could give assurances as to what will result from the talks and give advance notice of just how much Israel was willing to give they would be the intermediary and the talks would be called INDIRECT.
Israel wants direct talks with the Palestinians - as does the United States. The Palestinians want to know what the results will be before they begin. That just cannot happen.
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Tuesday July 16, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
World famous Iranian film director Mohsen Makhmalbaf is in Jerusalem. He is promoting his newest film "The Gardener" at the Jerusalem Film Festival.
Makhmalbaf has been exiled from Iran. For years he was on the run. Assassins pursued him, but now he lives relatively safely in London.
The movie takes place in the Bahai gardens. It is a docu-drama. The focus if the movie is the dialogue between the gardener and his son.
Makhmalbaf said that when he leaves Israel there will be more threats against him. He will surely be called either a Mossad or a CIA agent. And making a movie in Israel about the Bahai is a slap against the Iranian establishment.
The Iranian director-in-exile offered some words of advice to Israel and its political leadership. He said: "I love you, but please do not attack Iran. It is not the solution. It would only aggravate the situation."
He urged a resolution -- but not a resolution by way of attacks.
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Monday July 15, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday was a sad day for Polish Jews and, for that matter, for Polish history.
Yesterday a bill was defeated in the Polish parliament that would have allowed for Kosher slaughter and Hallal slaughter.
Earlier, a very clear bill protecting animal rights had passed through the Polish parliament. That bill demanded that all animals be stunned before slaughter - but both Jewish and Muslim law absolutely do not permit stunning prior to slaughter.
The proposed new, failed, bill attempted to make the religious slaughter an exception.
Comments made to the press after the vote smacked of anti-Semitism and hatred. Those who defeated the bill spoke about the precious feelings of animals, and how important it is to defend the animals, even if it causes economic loss. In the end, the needless sufferings of Polish animals was proven to be more important the a few dollars.
The Polish Parliament cared more about the sensitivities of dead and dying animals than about the quality of life of Polish Jews.
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Sunday July 14, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday Turkey changed the definition of their army. That decision will have a huge impact on the future of Turkey.
The army in Turkey was always used as an essential vehicle safeguarding the democracy. Four times in the past hundred years the military has been called to step in to take over and then hand the country back to the people. The Turkish army was a safety valve against anti-democratic movements and leaders.
On Friday Turkish Parliament officially changed the definition of the Turkish armed forces to that of "watching over and protecting the Turkish republic."
According to the new definition the Turkish army is "defending the Turkish nation against external threats and dangers, and maintaining and strengthening military powers to ensure deterrence."
As of now the Turkish army has no role in the preservation of the republic from internal threats. The army now functions solely as a defense against outside forces.
This is the last blow in a series of attacks against the army orchestrated by Erdogan. His objective is to neuter the army which was too powerful and too independent for him.
Erdogan is succeeding in changing the country - but at what cost for Turkey?
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Saturday July 13, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Syria may have been moved to the back burner since the situation in Egypt began heating up. But it doesn't mean that the situation in Syria is not simmering.
But things are still happening in Syria. Most crucial is that the rebels appear to be imploding.
Yesterday Kamal Hamami, one of the 30 leaders of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Supreme Military Command, was killed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, also known as al Qaeda of Iraq and Syria.
The FSA announced that they are now engaged in all out war.
This came on the heels of last week's filmed and public beheading of an FSA rebel in the city of Idlib.
It's classic. For two years I have been saying that there is no united rebel force in Syria. I've been saying that it is just a matter of time before one group of rebels kills another. Now that prediction is a full blown reality.
This rage, this warring, will be the end of the rebels. The rebels are unwittingly and unintentionally catapulting Bashar Assad back into power. And they just can't stop themselves.
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Friday July 12, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Israeli Army presented a merit award to Unit 8200 yesterday.
At first glance it is not such a big deal - until you realize that Unit 8200 is an intelligence unit.
This not just any unit. 8200 is the largest single unit in the Israel army. It is composed of thousands of soldiers. Its main base is called Urim and is located somewhere in the Negev desert, about 20 minutes from the city of Beersheba.
Unit 8200 was created in 1952. It is actually called "Shmoneh Mataayim" which in English translates to "Eight Two Hundred." There are many sub units within 8200. No one in one unit knows what others are doing in another unit - or even in their own unit. Part of 8200 collects intelligence and monitors the news, that section is called "Chatzav."
You would think it almost impossible to keep a secret when so many thousands of people are affiliated - but everything is compartmentalized and everyone is extremely secretive.
Across the world IDF Unit 8200 is officially referred to as the Central Collection Unit of the Israeli Army's Intelligence Corps.
Sometimes it is just called "The Israelis." 8200 has become a cabal, a mythical power with supernatural powers.
But 8200 also creates and attacks. Members of the Unit work closely with the Americans and it was probably 8200 which created Stuxnet, the virus that attacked Iran's nuclear enrichment program. 8200 is probably also responsible for W32.Flame which attacked Iran's oil pumping system and closed it down.
Above all else, Unit 8200 is a group of hackers, thousands of hackers. And they are competing with the Chinese and the Russians.
They are probably the largest, or at least, one of the largest listening bases in the world. Being in the desert helps - the skies are clearer with less interruption and they can listen to almost everyone everywhere. Unit 8200 tracks people, cars, ships, almost anything that moves. They are connected via satellite and have covert listening stations across the world.
In this era of budget cuts which means fewer planes and fewer tanks, money is being spent on high tech weaponry. Computers are cheaper than tanks and F-16s. And they have done some remarkable work.
We will never know all that Unit 8200 and other similar units around the world have done. But we do know that we live in a world of intelligence gathering and games of war. And in Israel, computer geeks have become military heroes.
Israel is saying "todah" or "thank you" to Unit 8200 by giving them this award.
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Thursday July 11, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Let's look at who is supporting Egypt since the ousting of Morsi and the Muslim Brother. It is very telling to know who is who - who is giving support and who is withdrawing support.
Saudi Arabia has come forward, they supported the ouster and are giving $8 billion.
The United Arab Emirates is giving $3 billion.
Kuwait is giving $4 billion.
Qatar is in for $5 billion.
Qatar was very involved in supporting Morsi in the first months of his reign. They gave billions to the Morsi government. But two months before the ousting of the Brotherhood they had switched allegiance and were sponsoring and helping the students.
It was probably the Qatari foreign minister who called Morsi and asked him to resign. And that was probably at the request of the White House. Everything is couched in terms of "probably" because it is all being kept confidential and hush-hush.
The US will go through with the promise to deliver four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. The jets were scheduled to be delivered in the first week of August and there is no reason to expect that it will not happen.
Thus far this year the United States has given Egypt $650 million in military aid. $585 million is still pending and will be delivered between now and September when the fiscal year ends.
Syrian leader Bashar Assad has also come out in support of the students. He called the showdown in Egypt "a blow to Jihadists."
Turkey, however, is vehemently opposed to the uprising. Erdogan is calling it an affront to democracy and says that anyone who supports the Egyptian uprising is a hypocrite.
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Wednesday July 10, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Earlier today a massive car explosion ripped though a southern Beirut neighborhood. The neighborhood is known to be Hezbollah territory and the explosion detonated near a Hezbollah military compound.
Beirut is no stranger to car bombs.
Fully understanding this particular explosion is essential in understanding the present state of the Arab Middle East. This is clearly a Sunni attack against Shiite Hezbollah. It is an obvious and tangible sign that the conflict in Syria between Shiites and Sunnis is spilling over into Lebanon.
Reports suggested that the attack was directed against a Hezbollah leader. I doubt it.
Car bombs like this one are massive. Very seldom do they successfully hit specific targets. Their purpose is widespread damage. They damage buildings, streets, institutions. They wreak fear. They are the opposite of a planned assassination.
A planned assassination would partially destroy the car and kill or maim only the people targeted in that car. It would use a few kilos of explosives. This car bomb used over 40 kilos, which is nearly 90lbs, of explosives.
This type of attack is similar to al Qaeda attacks in Syria and in Iraq.
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Tuesday July 9, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The White House is walking a tight rope. They still do not want to call the crisis in Egypt a coup. They are in a bind because Congressional law prevents the United States from giving aid to any regime that came into existence through a coup.
This is what happened: In 2012 Congress passed a law called the Consolidated Appropriations Act which prohibits spending money for any "assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree, or a coup d'etat or decree that is supported by the military."
So the White House is not saying it was a coup. If they do not call is a coup that means that it was not a coup.
Jay Carney, the White House press secretary put it this way: "I'm being very clear with you ... this is a complex and difficult issue with significant consequences."
The White House and DC have been portrayed as evil by both sides in Egypt. There is very little the United States can do to redeem their reputation.
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Monday July 8, 2013
I'm Predicting:
Newspapers in Egypt have been filled with coverage of their revolutionary events. The United States does not fare well in those reports. The US is presented as totally out of touch with what is happening in Egypt.
The Egyptians cannot believe that the United States really believes that the ousting of Morsi was a coup. For them it is clear as day that it was a social revolution and that Morsi could have, and should have, simply stepped down.
Amidst all the coverage on the revolution was an important and almost overlooked account about bringing law back to the Sinai.
The Egyptians found and blew up 40 terrorist tunnels coming from Gaza. These tunnels transport arms that provide ammunition to terrorists who attack Egyptians. And indeed, just today, an Egyptian border crossing was attacked by terrorists.
Egypt has a long way to go. But for now, expect the Egyptian army to bring back law and order throughout the country.
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Sunday July 7, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Muslim Brotherhood has taken their anger to the streets.
Everyday there are large Muslim Brotherhood organized rallies in support of ousted president Morsi. At the same time, tens of thousands gather at counter demonstrations rallied in support of the ousting. The protestors sometimes meet and the result is violence and even death.
The plan is to hold an election in 18 months. The temporary government wants to set the stage for a real secure transition back to democracy. They want to put the economy back on track. To do that they first have to strip the constitution of the anti-democratic changes made under Morsi and the Muslim
Brotherhood. They need to, and intend to, make significant changes -- especially regarding the role of the president and the primacy of Sharia, Islamic law.
The temporary government must add on provisions that prohibit non-democratic parties from standing for election. They must see to it that parties prove their democratic character - which will be an impossibility for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri parties.
Non-democratic parties should be disqualified until they prove their democratic nature. All their literature, presentations, speeches, leadership media interviews must be subject to inspection. Unless they pass the democracy test, a party should not be permitted to run.
A democracy must protect itself from anti-democratic forces. That is where Egypt failed in the last election. The Egyptians elected a "non" or better an "anti" democratic party and the leader of that party, Mohammed Morsi, proceeded to dismantle democracy and use his power to abuse the people and destroy the opposition.
Along the way Morsi and the Mulsim Brotherhood destroyed the economy, too.
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Saturday July 6, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Muslim Brotherhood is setting the stage to retake Egypt. To that end, at least seventeen Egyptians were killed yesterday. The Brotherhood has called on their people to take to the streets.
The rhetoric is getting ugly and it is dangerous. The Muslim Brotherhood website calls Adli Mansour, the new president of Egypt, a Jew. First it calls him a 7th Day Adventist. Then it says that Mansour wanted to get closer to Christianity but the Coptic Pope refused to baptize him. Then it calls him a Jew.
The Brotherhood is also trying to skewer Mohammed el Baradei, one of the leaders of the opposition. They claim that he refused to join the Sharia Council unless they recognized that there was a Holocaust.
On the website a famous TV personality named Ahmed Mansour (no relation) said this about the Holocaust and el Baradei: "This is a token gesture offered to the Jews by el Baradei so that he can become President of the Republic in the fake elections that the military will guard and whose results they will falsify in their interests ... All with the approval of America, Israel and the Arabs, of course.
"This is the glorious scene of the future of Egypt and the Arabs, who competed to recognize the coup, the coup whose drum the secularists are dancing to ... even to the extent that one of them, who hates religion, Islam and the nation announced that he has been reborn ... and that his date of birth is 30/6, that is, the day the army of defeats staged a coup against ballot box legitimacy."
Conspiracy theories abound.
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Friday July 5, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
What happens next in Egypt?
A technocratic government has been put in place in Egypt and Morsi has been deposed.
Now there are some very important steps to be taken and other, just as important, steps to be avoided.
The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri party cannot be allowed to assume that they can beat back their way into power through violence.
There must not be a civil war. The army will play an essential role in this as will Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia must continue to give money to the new regime. Qatar came out already and welcomed the change. Saudi Arabia will be next.
The United States must not send out a message that the Muslim Brotherhood was injured by the change in leadership. That would be seen as a blessing that the Brotherhood could take to the streets.
The constitution in Egypt must be changed and stripped of its Morsi additions that place Islamic law above all else.
Infrastructure and bureaucratic institutions must begin to work. Safety and security and justice must become common place. Martial law existed in Egypt from 1981 until 2011. Now there must be a sense of safety and freedom.
The United States must understand that the Army did not take over but rather stepped in to safeguard the institutions of freedom and protect the masses. If things get violent and if there is no immediate control, Egypt will fall into chaos.
Democratic parties must work towards a speedy election and not split the vote.
Non-democratic forces must not be permitted to stand for election. If the vote is split among all the progressive parties then once again the Muslim Brotherhood will win in the next election.
This is just the beginning. This new, new Egypt has a long, long way to go.
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Thursday July 4, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The first elected president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, has been deposed. After four days of massive demonstrations the Egyptian army has unseated him.
This is all the result of the Arab Spring. The spring ousted
Mubarak and replaced him with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. The people reacted in an extreme political way by voting the extreme. It is what I call the rubber band effect.
Now the rubber band has stretched back to its normal size. That meant ousting Morsi and the Brotherhood which was the exaggerated response.
Now one has to ask: Where was the United States in this entire episode?
The answer is: Almost absent.
This was a real democratic uprising. We heard that the US Army Chief of Staff called his Egyptian counterpart. And we heard that the White House asked for responsible behavior. But that is hardly a show of leadership in a crisis. This was a world crisis and a democratic crisis.
Yes, Morsi was democratically elected. But democracy was kicked to the side and he turned into a tyrant. There was no constitutional way of removing him short of suspending the constitution.
This is a statement of empowerment by and for the people of Egypt.
This is a damning critique of American foreign policy.
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Wednesday July 3, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Make no mistake - the unrest in Egypt is about a failed leader and his failed economy. Calling it a religious conflict is easy - but wrong.
The rhetoric sometimes relates to religious issues, but the truth is clear and every Egyptian knows it. If there were tourism in Egypt and if natural gas and oil were being exported, there would be some discontent but nothing like this. There would be stragglers protesting in the street, not millions massed in Tahrir Square.
In Egypt right now, it is all about the economy.
We are talking about a country with almost no economy to speak of and a growing debt. Aid can no longer save the Egyptians. They need to produce, they need to export.
Some would argue that the problems in Egypt exist because Morsi is an Islamic leader. I would say that the crisis in Egypt is due to the fact that Mohammed Morsi is a bad and inexperienced leader.
There were high hopes at first. Morsi could have been forward thinking and more inclusive. He could have been a president that embraced public safety. Instead he became a president who polarized.
Polarization was probably the greatest error Morsi made. There is no doubt that in the eyes of the world polarization in Egypt was interpreted as danger and danger means no tourism.
In what we can now called "the good old days," the days before Morsi came to power, Egypt thrived on tourism.
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Tuesday July 2, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Washington does not understand the Middle East.
Here are four blatant examples illustrating how the administration is naive and overly optimistic about everything relating to the region. How they are not grounded in the realities of the Middle East.
# 1: In Egypt the United States jumped at the opportunity to oust Mubarak which turned into a big mistake. Now DC is overly cautious and as a result Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are getting the soft shoe.
# 2: In Syria it appears as if the United States has decided to side with the rebels. That is despite knowing that the best organized and best trained and most powerful rebels are confirmed al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliates.
# 3: In Turkey the United States has been relatively quiet about the brutal crackdown Erdogan has perpetrated against protesters. They have silently stood by as the Turkish leader's language slips into anti-democratic and extremely problematic imagery.
# 4: Just last week the United States opened official channels of communication with the Taliban. They met in Qatar.
The only way to explain these actions and inactions by the United States is to say that the present administration is naive, very, very naive.
Naivete and diplomacy are not a good mix.
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Monday July 1, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State John Kerry has wrapped up nearly four days of shuttling back and forth between Bibi Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Kerry met with leader three times.
As he was departing Ben Gurion airport outside of Tel Aviv Kerry said: "I'm pleased to tell you that we have made real progress on this trip. And I believe that with a little more work, the start of final status negotiations could be within reach. We started out with very wide gaps, and we have narrowed those considerably."
He punctuated his remarks by saying: "I know progress when I see it."
Kerry is confident that progress has been made, but that does not mean that the parties are ready to sit down and talk about final status accords.
What Kerry was saying is that the huge disagreements between the Israelis and the Palestinians have become less pronounced. And yes, there is no doubt that we can call that progress.
Now I await the next stage ... actually sitting down to talk. I wait, but I am not holding my breath.
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