Sunday November 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One of the classic responses to the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran has been to say that Israel does not have the capability to do a proper job of wiping out Iranian nuclear systems and other weapons systems.

American leaders consistently put down the idea that Israel will strike Iran because the attack would not achieve the desired objective. But Israel's ability to effectively strike Iran has been updated.

Whereas it was always assumed that an Israeli strike would only delay the Iranian nuclear program by two to three years, today it is believed that Israel can set Iran back ten years. Even a partly effective attack by Israel would set Iran back seven or eight years.

The change in calculus is due to a better understanding of Israeli weapons and of better intel. This update in Israeli military might has been spreading through military and intelligence circles around the world. The axiom that was in play several months ago is no longer axiomatic.

Where once the United States said that Israel will need her assistance and will not act alone, today it seems that Israeli dissatisfaction over US negotiations with Iran carries with it a significant potential wallop.

Israel is now prepping a series of real strike scenarios. Some of those scenarios are to be carried out without US support.

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