Sunday January 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media is revealing a split in thinking about the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear deal.

On Saturday a front page headline read "Nuclear Burial". That was a pun based on the removal and the filling of Iran's only heavy water reactor in Arak with cement.

Another paper said the filling of the reactor with cement "hurt national pride."

Both these papers side with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They are far right of the political leadership of President Rouhani and foreign minister Zarif.

This tension should be elevated by the Supreme Leader. But the Ayatollah seems to side with the Revolutionary Guard.

When Ahmadinejad was in power his policies were even more extreme than the expectations and wishes of the Supreme Leader.

When the Ayatollah chose the next president he selected Rouhani who was of a more liberal bent. But he is too liberal for the Supreme Leader who now seems to side more with the Revolutionary Guard.

This makes the entire situation very difficult to predict.

There is serous blowback inside Iran. If the Supreme Leader is unhappy with the deal he will need to be convinced that lifting the sanctions are a panacea for all the ails Iran is confronting.

Read my latest book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com