Saturday January 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It is worthwhile taking some time to understand what really happened when Iran captured 10 US sailors who, for 40 minutes, wandered off course. As of now it is clear to everyone that the ship's GPS was working and that they had plenty of fuel.

The real issue here, and the real intention, was to totally humiliate the United States. Also humiliated were President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif. It was all part of the plan concocted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They were behind the video taping of the US sailors and they were behind the release of the video.

US Secretary of State Kerry was immediately in touch with his counterpart, Zarif, in Teheran. The release of the sailors was a quick deal, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guard needed to exploit the matter.

The Guard does not like the nuclear deal and they certainly do not trust the United States. The deal is near completion and the sanctions are about to be lifted. The Guard knows this and is trying to agitate. They see the deal as a plot by the US and by Rouhani to topple the current regime and to break their monopoly on the Iranian economy. They want to show the United States and the Iranian people - as well as the mass media, that they will not be lured into the point of view held by the United States. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard wants to prove that Iran will neither bow to the United States nor succumb to the West and adopt Western culture.
This is a huge statement.

On the other side in Iran are President Rouhani and his foreign minister Zarif. They know that Iran needs the sanctions to be lifted especially on oil - even despite the fact that the drop in the price of oil is not helpful to their bigger goal.

The Grand Ayatollah seems to be silently on the side of the Revolutionary Guard and has only begrudgingly and cautiously permitted the nuclear deal.

The United States wants the nuclear technology to be secured and they have looked the other way regarding serious violation and saber rattling by the Revolutionary Guard - which also includes firing a rocket dangerously close to US ships and the testing of long range ballistic missiles.

The capture of the US sailors could not have come at a worse moment for the United States and Iranian leadership. It was, however, perfect timing for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It was just at the point of the end of the nuclear deal's timetable. And of course one could not miss that it was on the eve of Obama's last State of the Union Address.

Releasing the video was a huge embarrassment for the United States.
The video went viral around the world. What is most important is that millions of people have watched as the Iranians forced the US to their knees - literally and figuratively. Yes, the US aircraft carrier was poised to attack Iran - but Iran trained their missiles and rockets on that carrier and many other targets.

In the end the sailors were released and the situation did not escalate. But the biggest winners were the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the biggest losers were the United States and Iranian President Rouhani.

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