Monday January 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past month Russia has moved from being an actor in Syria, securing Assad's position and control, to being a mediator in Syria, trying to establish a ceasefire.

It's a hard shift, but it can be done. However - the Assad regime and the Iranians are not happy with this new role Russia has assumed. They want Russia to stay firmly on the side of Assad.

The rebels fighting Assad have no delusions that Russia is on their side. They also know that Russia has the power to influence Iran and Assad which means that a ceasefire could be in everyone's best interest.

Syria and Iran do not understand Russia. Russia is not turning its back on them, rather, the Russians are advancing their vision. In order to confront Russia, Iran and Syria need to first understand why Russia is interested in changing their established role and becoming, at the same time, a mediator and a bomber of ISIS and al Qaeda.

When they find that answer, they can try to confront Russia and influence their policy. But not before they have found the answer.

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