Friday March 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is suffering a drought that is endangering the central area around the city of Isfahan.

Analysts say that conditions have worsened, in part, due to incompetence and mismanagement on the part of government. And Iranians are rising up in protest.

These protests have sprung up over the past month. Some of the protests have been squashed by authorities.

One of the chants shouted out during protests is "Death to the farmers - long live the oppressors." This is obviously a humorous critique of the situation. A drought can destroy the heart and soul of a region and impact a country on a national scale.

Water in the Middle East, even more so than in many other places in the world, needs to be properly managed so that people and populations can both earn a living and feed the masses without the need to import basic food needs.

The drought is not getting worse, it is only getting worse.

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Thursday March 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority is once again lashing out hoping to hurt the United States. But once again, in the end, the only party to be hurt - will be the Palestinian Authority. Their actions just reinforce the momentum in US halls of power that the Palestinians are not helping themselves.

For years the US has been frustrated that the PA continues to pay terrorists who are in Israeli prisons and to the families of terrorists killed while perpetrating murderous acts against Israelis. For four years the PA indirectly paid their terrorists through the Palestinian Ministry of Prison of Affairs, a ministry which deals only and exclusively with prisoners in Israeli jails and terrorists killed while perpetrating terror.

Now Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his government have decided to fund the terrorists and their families directly. The PA officially announced that they are no longer hiding their sponsorship of terrorists.

Why - and why now? Because last week the US Congress passed the Taylor Force Act which prohibits the United States from sending funds to the Palestinian Authority if they pay/ reward terrorists. US aid was being used to sponsor terror against Israelis and even against Americans like Taylor Force who was murdered last year. Force was a decorated US veteran on a graduate school study trip to Israel and was stabbed and murdered in a terror attack in the city of Jaffa.

The numbers and the sums are numbing. According to Palestinian budget figures, 550 million NIS is budgeted annually for stipends to Palestinians in Israeli prisons and another 687 million NIS for the families of terrorists. That equals 1.2 billion NIS to terrorists and families.

The entire health budget of the Palestinian Authority is 1.8 billion NIS.

The total PA budget is 15.5 billion NIS. The budget for terrorists and their families (not terrorism) is about 10% of the entire Palestinian budget and just a tiny bit smaller than the health budget for the entire PA.

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Wednesday March 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The US is moving it's embassy to Jerusalem - that's a foregone conclusion, but even a healthy desire to make the change requires Herculean strength and great skill.

A consulate just can't become an embassy by tacking up a sign. US security procedures require a series of upgrades.

Before a US embassy compound can open, it requires a wall around the compound that is at least 8 feet high. It requires access roads with proper width and distance from the main gate. It requires anti truck ramming defense and a gate which will withstand a frontal assault. And finally the embassy requires alternative emergency exits including underground tunnels.

That all takes time to build.

In Israel in order to build any building with those requirements permits must be issued by the National Planning and Building Committee

That takes time. The Committee requires plans and the plans require approval.

Only 6 times in its history has the Committer fastracked approval. Each time the exception was predicated on saving a life or a situation of national crisis and importance.

Is moving the US embassy to Jerusalem an emergency? It is if you want it opened in time for the 70th anniversary of Israel's independence.

The Committee voted in favor of the exception.

A mini miracle.

There is still one other obstacle to be overcome. The former and now shuttered Diplomat Hotel sits within the expanded US compound. In the 1990's the hotel was converted into a facility to house new immigrants.

To this day some 450 new immigrants inhabit the facility. They must all relocated. If that happens before the 70th anniversary which will be celebrated on the 5th of Iyar, it will be another miracle.

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Tuesday March 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Heiko Mass is the new foreign minister of Germany.

Mass is on his first official trip to the Middle East in his new role. He was particularly profound when he spoke to Palestinian leadership in Ramallah.

Mass told the Palestinians not to tear down bridges.

He was referring to the position that Palestinian leadership has taken against the United States ever since President Trump announced that he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and would soon relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Mass was trying to help move the Palestinians back onto a path of acceptance. It is a commendable move but it is also an uphill battle.

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Monday March 26. 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Iron Dome was activated yesterday.

The Code Red alarm sounded in three different regions in Israel: Sderot, Hof Ashkelon, Shaar Hanegev.

The Iron Dome detected projectiles incoming to all three regions and responded by launching missiles to intercept them.

Everything worked perfectly - except that the incoming rockets were not rockets, they were bullets from gunfire.

The sensors on the Iron Dome are very sensitive. In fact, too sensitive. The sensors caused the Iron Dome to launch. This is a serious flaw in the Iron Dome.

Now Hamas knows that they can send small projectiles and draw Iron Dome fire. After that, they can launch real rockets at Israeli targets.

This massive flaw has been very publicly uncovered.

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Sunday March 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The take of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate is always worth hearing. Major General Herzi Halevi offered several observations today.

The Israeli general warned Hamas and Lebanon that Iran was not a friend of theirs and would only hurt them.

Halevi said "Iran has launched a Shiite arrow that has split the region asunder. Hamas must understand running to (Iran) will only worsen its condition."

He said that Hezbollah is "continuing to grow in strength under Iran's tutelage." And added "Israel has no belligerent intentions towards Lebanon, the gaps between us are small and can be bridged." And that: "Lebanon must consider its economy, one of the largest in the region, and not Iran and Hezbollah's interests."

These were words of advice and warning for Hamas and Lebanon will probably not be heeded.

The inverse message in Halevi's comments is essential for us to hear.
Iran is making serious inroads into Hamas in Gaza and promising them essential funds. And, in Lebanon, Iran is expanding beyond Hezbollah and luring Lebanese leadership with promises of aid.

None of this bodes well for the region.

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Friday March 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is changing - just look around and see the signs of transformation.

This week the air forces of Israel, the United States, Italy, the UK, Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates were all hosted by Greece.

During the course of the week the various air forces flew together and carried out joint exercises. The most significant of all joint exercises was when the United Arab Emirates flew together with Israel.

The UAE and Israel do not have diplomatic relations, and yet, this week, high above the Mediterranean two F-16's - one flown by an Israeli and the other by a pilot from the UAE, flew in tandem to accomplish a goal at mach speed.

A perfect example of how the Middle East is changing- for the better.

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Thursday March 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Damascus area of Al Qadam has been taken over by ISIS.

The battle for Al Qadam lasted over 24 hours - and during that time at least 36 Syrian soldiers were killed. Do not misunderstand, do not think that ISIS is taking all of Syria back. But this area is back in the hands of ISIS.

ISIS has lost it momentum and has lost most of Syria, but Syria is still a tinder box that can explode at any moment.

Even the area around Damascus and its suburbs, which is one of the bastions of Assad's power, can be wrestled away by ISIS.

In the eyes of ISIS, as long as one fighter is still fighting they are still a threat.

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Wednesday March 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians tabled a discussion on human rights abuses in Syria at the United Nations Security Council.

They asserted that human rights was not on the agenda and therefore should not be discussed. "We do not see any justification for this meeting since human rights is not a subject on the agenda of the Security Council," said Gennady Kuzmin, Russia's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations.

This is a typical Russian move.

Everyone knows about the rampant human rights abuses in Syria. Tabling a discussion on the obvious was a continuation of Russia's role in Syria. The Russians have been witness and even party to some of the abuses.

This is something they certainly do not want to discuss at the Security Council.

Eventually the subject will be placed on the agenda and it will be discussed.

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Tuesday March 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Ambassador to Israel David Freidman tweeted that the murder of 3 young Israelis was tragic and that the PA has been silent and has not even denounced the acts of terror.

That tweet led to a response from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in which he called the US Ambassador "a son of a dog - a settler - and father of settlers." He also attacked the US and mentioned the decision to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem.

During that same speech Abbas called out Hamas for a failed assassination attempt against his prime minister. Hamas, which tried to murder Abbas' #2 was not called any of the awful things thrown at Friedman. Instead, Hamas was asked to keep Abbas in the loop in the investigation.

This rant by Abbas is typical of him. He is a very emotional person.

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Monday March 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday 1000 people marched in Warsaw to protest the new rise of Anti-semitism in Poland.

Protest marches also took place in other cities throughout Poland. The marchers shouted "Freedom Equality, Tolerance."

This is the first public response, in Poland, to the wave of public intolerance that has become so commonplace.

The Jewish community in Poland is extremely worried about the rise of freely expressed anti-Semitism expressed on TV, radio, the internet and in public life.

Hopefully, these marches will be a wake-up call people up and force anti-Semitism in Poland back into the bottle.

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Friday March 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just signed a huge foreign deal.

Dana Energy, the Iranian state oil company, signed a ten year, $740 billion deal, to collectively produce oil from two oil fields near the Iraqi border.

Their agreement is with the Russian state owned oil company Zarubezhneft. Together, both fields will pump 84,000 barrels of oil a day.

Last year China and France's oil company SA came to agreement with Iran. That agreement is worth $5 billion dollars to develop an offshore natural gas field.

Iran is running to expand their role in the world of energy. They are competing big and they are scoring big.

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Thursday March 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Gallop published a new poll on their website that turned conventional wisdom on its head.

The Gallop poll showed that Americans support Israel more - or at least as well, as they have ever supported her for decades, ever since Gallop first polled the question.

64% of Americans have a positive feeling towards Israel. Only 19% feel positively towards the Palestinians.

Americans feel 45% more favorably toward Israel than toward the Palestinians.

This result tied with the 1991 gallop poll which was taken during the 1st Gulf War and the poll taken in 2013 when Barack Obama was the president of the United States.

Contrary to what the media tells us, Israel is well liked and respected by Americans.

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Wednesday March 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Russia and the United States are spiking in the Syria.

Russia's chief of staff and the head of the US joint chiefs of staff spoke yesterday about the tensions.

The Russians have held press conferences and have said that they have information that the US is going to strike Assad fortifications in Damascus. Russia said that they will retaliate if Russians were hurt in the strike. Russia also said that the US will create a pretext for the attack.

The US has been speaking about Syria's use of non-conventional weapons against civilians. They have said that they will respond if that proves true.

Russia is suggesting that the US will stage a gas incident in order to attack.

Words are ugly, but it is potential action that could destabilize the entire region.

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Tuesday March 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The White House announced that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office on March 20, 2018.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that that the crown prince and the president will discuss economics and security.

They will also discuss ISIS and Islamic extremism.

And Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.

They will focus on Qatar.

And they will spend time on the Palestinians.

The most important subject they talk about will be nuclear technology.

The Saudis want nuclear technology in order to have parity with the Iranians. And so the United States needs to figure out how to empower the Saudis without having the Middle East spiral into a nuclear arms race.

Easier said than done.

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Monday March 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been hacking. Iranians have improved their hacking skills and are successfully spying and disrupting computers all over the world.

An Iranian hacker group called Chafer has attacked Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Chafer has disrupted telecommunication systems and networks.

Another Iranian hacker group, this one named Advanced Persistent Threat APT -33, is very active. APT -33 has been attacking the United States, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

And these are just a few of the Iranian hacks.

Suffice it to say that Iran's interest in hacking systems is to do more than merely disrupt and make life uncomfortable. The Iranians want access, they want to control the hacked systems. They want the information in the systems and they want to bring their victims to their knees.

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Friday March 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On April 30th the 700 strong Palestinian National Council will meet in Ramallah.

The PNC, the most important legislative body in the Palestinian government, has not met in over ten years.

The ostensible reason for this meeting is to fill those positions on the Palestinian Executive Committee that have been vacated because of deaths, illnesses, old age or a simple inability to function and carry on with the duties of the positions.

But there is another reason for the meeting.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' health is not as stable as it was. Abbas is 82 years old and no successor has been tapped, no one is even on the horizon.

This PNC meeting is an opportunity to see who might emerge as potential leader. Should several potential leaders emerge, there might even be an election to choose candidates. There might even be a primary and then a run off. All that is doubtful, but who know what might happen.

The important part is that the Palestinian National Council is meeting.

It's a first step, an important step.

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Thursday March 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic University in Indonesia has outlawed wearing a full veil burqa.

Indonesia is the most populated Muslim country in the world. The State Islamic University in Yogyakarta City on Java Island instituted a policy forbidding women from covering their entire faces.

The purpose of the policy is to curb radical Islamic activity on campus.

There has been some blow back claiming that this prohibition is a violation of freedom of speech. The irony cannot be lost - those demanding freedom of speech would curtail the speech of anyone who disagrees with them.

This university is trying to "put forth the modern face of Islam." What they are really trying to do, in other words, is to curtail extremism.

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Wednesday March 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at Iran. And Iran responded to Netanyahu.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that Iran is actually an honest player seeking justice and advocating for Palestinian victims of Israeli occupation and oppression.

It all always comes down to the Israeli occupation.

Zarif tweeted: "Despite Netanyahu's claims, the fact is that illegal occupation lies at the heart of most of the calamities in our region."

He continued: "Historically, occupying another's land has never been sustainable. This occupation, too - and the apartheid system that perpetuates it- will not last long."

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Tuesday March 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

One of the dangers with Iranian nuclear development is the ripple effect. There is regional competition in the Middle East, so if Iran has nukes, Saudi Arabia needs them. The pressure to get nukes should not be underestimated.

It's like keeping up with the Jones', Middle East style.

As a result of the 2015 nuke deal with Iran, the international community is on their way to full nuclear capability. Saudis will not accept a situation where the Shiites, i.e. Iran, have weapon superiority over them.

Should the United States and Israel side with the Saudis or try to preserve fewer nukes in the Middle East?

It's a conundrum - more nukes or parity between Sunnis and Shiites.

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Monday March 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The New Polish Law about the Holocaust has begun to make an impact. A Polish group called the Polish League Against Defamation is suing an Argentinian newspaper that Poland claims violated the new law by suggesting that Poland was complicit in the Holocaust.

The claim is that the paper Pagina 12, an Argentinian daily, misrepresented Poland in December 2017. The paper published a picture of "Doomed Soldiers" also called "Cursed Soldiers" or "Damned Soldiers" who fought against the communists during WWII. Pagina 12 ran their picture along with an article about a 1941 massacre of the Jews of Jedwabne during which local Poles murdered 340 Jews. The Germans were complicit in the murder.

The picture is clearly a mistake. The Polish group is hoping to slap down any mistakes that are made and to set an example for others.

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Sunday March 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the US for 5 days. A large part of his agenda for this visit will be addressing the AIPAC Policy Conference and meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Many people are worried about the latest investigation into Bibi over yet another legal issue. This time investigators are looking into bribery in exchange for better press coverage plus favors to streamline the bureaucratic web for Bezek in the communications ministry. It also involves efforts to drop the case against Netanyahu's wife Sara in exchange for promises to make the judge the attorney general.

This is not a crisis. These will amount to nothing against Bibi.

The real danger is the budget.

The ultra religious parties want a change in the bill regarding compulsory draft into the IDF. They want students in their yeshivot to have the same legal and economic status as soldiers in the army, without participation in the military. If that can be accomplished, yeshiva students would be permitted to legally work and get national insurance as they study. There would be no difference between a yeshivah student and a soldier.

The Shas party and the United Torah Judaism party have both said they will bolt from the coalition and not vote for the upcoming budget unless the current draft bill is amended.

That is a real crisis.

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Friday March 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Putin gave his State of the Union Address yesterday. The speech was filled with pride and power.

It is the eve of an election campaign for Putin. He will most certainly win another 6 year term.

During his speech Putin claimed that despite the US, Russia is winning the arms race.

"I want to tell all those who have fueled the arms race over the last 15 years, sought to win unilateral advantages over Russia, introduced unlawful sanctions aimed to contain our country's development: all what you wanted to impede with your policies have already happened" ... "You have failed to contain Russia."

Putin also announced that Russia now has a nuclear powered underwater drone and a hypersonic missile. This hypersonic nuclear powered missile can travel Mach 5 which is five times the speed of sound. It has practically unlimited range.

"No one in the world has anything like that," he said. "It may appear someday, but by that time we will develop something new."

Sounding much like a cartoon character he said: "No one has listened to us." ..."You listen to us now."

Finally, Putin asserted that Russian weapons will preserve world peace when he said: "We aren't threatening anyone, we aren't going to attack anyone, we aren't going to take anything from anyone," ... "The growing Russian military might will guarantee global peace."

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Thursday March 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

A London paper, Asharq Al-Awsat, described in detail the US peace plan to resolve the Palestinian Israeli conflict.

The paper cites unnamed French diplomats as its source.

The details are no surprise. Arab leaders that have been looped in seem to not be too negative. That is a huge vote of support.

The main points published suggest:
East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.
No right of return for Palestinian families.
Financial Compensation for families. $40 billion dollars in building infrastructure.
Limited sovereignty which includes expanded governing responsibility in areas A and B.
The Jordan valley will remain under Israeli control and the large settlement blocks will remain in place. The the smaller settlements will be relocated into the larger settlement blocs.
Israel to control the borders. Egypt will control the Gaza border which abuts their border.

Interestingly, it was French diplomats that leaked the U.S. plan to a London-based popular Arab paper. Why not a US or Palestinian diplomat? Why an Arab paper and not the New York Times or the Washington Post? In Arabic Asharq Al-Awsat means "The Middle East." It is owned by a private company - but it is actually owned by the Saudi Royal Family. The Saudi family has a stake in this deal. This U.S. deal is very similar to the Saudi Peace Plan.

One must note that there is no way that a peace plan will be implemented without Saudi approval and Saudi support.

Understanding the credibility and viability of the peace plan will depend on answering the above questions.

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