Friday October 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Thursday night at almost midnight Israel time the code red alert sounded in southern Israel. Families scrambled to grab their sleeping children and rush them into their safe rooms.
This is not unique. Unfortunately it maybe the new norm.

Now Israel must now evaluate their response.

A rocket was shot from Gaza into Israel - thankfully no was hurt and no damage physical damage occurred.

That is except if you count that this was one of her 40,000 rockets which the Palestinians of Gaza have launched into Israel.

In an Israeli army ceremony earlier in the day marking the transition of leadership in the outgoing IDF officer in charge of the region said that Palestinian terrorists continually attempt to attack Israel from beneath the ground and from the air and on the ground. But thus far Israel has the ability to stop them.

Over the past week Israel has begun to act aggressively against the Palestinian units launching incendiary balloons and rockets against Israel.

That seems to have been the decision by the prime minister's inner cabinet - his security cabinet.

In the meantime despite the recent rocket attack the Palestinians have quieted down because of Israel's more aggressive response.

Significantly fewer Palestinians are rioting at the Gaza border with Israel and the rioters behavior is much more controlled. This is clearly a decision and a response by the organizers to Israel's increased reaction.

All this translates into an intensification of the conflict. Because of last week's rocket which destroyed a family home in Beersheba - Israel changed their reaction. They hit Palestinian launching units. That military response created calmer life on both sides.

Given the current responses of Israel and the intensities - the rocket that was launched near midnight yesterday may force Israel to respond with even greater force.

Translation - increased tensions requires Israel's response.
Question: Will there be an IDF ground attack and an all military invasion into Gaza?:
Answer- neither side wants one.

Israel wants to cap the tension using drones, helicopters and fighter jets. They do not want to risk the cost of Israeli casualties that are inevitable in ground invasion.

The Palestinians want to push Israel and agitate just up to the point of forcing an increase in Israel's response especially avoiding an all out advance.

So far the Palestinians have caused Israel to use more aerial strikes. That response would be considered a moderate increase in activity.

But the Palestinian rockets are extremely unpredictable - an errant rocket will hit an Israeli civilian target. That single rocket could topple the very fragile balance preventing an all out war.

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