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IDF Admits Hezbollah Poised to Attack
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The head the IDF commented on Hezbollah and he gave an important threat assessment.

Major General Aviv Kochavi explained that: "Only several dozens of kilometers from here, beyond our northern border, there is a terror organization that is set to harm Israel and its resilience, an organization that strives to use precision-guided weapons against us and aims to invade our territory and launch rockets and missiles at Israeli civilians, all the while blatantly violating international agreements and the rules of warfare."

There is no surprise that Hezbollah wants to attack Israel. What is new is that the head of the IDF is talking about it.

Israel is preparing to defending itself against border crossings where the terror group is planning to strike Israel.

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Olymipics Punish Malaysia for Banning Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 31, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Malaysia has said that they will not permit any Israelis to entire their country to compete in the International Paralympics swimming championships which they were supposed to host and were to take place from July 29 thru August 4.

The International Paralympics Committee (IPC) has now announced that they are pulling the events out of Malaysia. Other countries have until February 9 to propose hosting the events in place of Malaysia.

"Politics and sport are never a good mix," said IPC President Andrew Parsons in a statement. "We are disappointed that Israeli athletes would not have been allowed to compete in Malaysia."

"All World Championships must be open to all eligible athletes and nations to compete safely and free from discrimination," said Parsons. "When a host country excludes athletes from a particular nation, for political reasons, then we have absolutely no alternative but to look for a new Championships host."

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Russian Leaders Meet Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

One way to understand the important directions and strategies of a government is to look at their guest logs. Knowing who visited with the leadership and when they visited offers up a treasure trove of information.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with a delegation of senior Russian officials yesterday in order to discuss the situation in Syria. Details about the meeting were supplied by Netanyahu's office.

The Israeli prime minister met with Russia's Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev, and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin. The prime minister's office announced that the talks focused on Iran, Syria and "strengthening the security coordination mechanism between the militaries."

There has been a significant amount of tension between Israel and Russia over the past few months. The tensions increased after Israel took credit for carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets and Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah.

Israel and Russia maintain a hotline to prevent their air forces from conflicting, especially over Syrian skies. While, for the most part, the hotline has worked, a Syrian anti=aircraft missile aimed at an Israeli plane last September instead shot down a Russian transport plane and Russia blames Israel for the debacle.

This meeting was important. It bodes well for the relationship between Israel and Russia.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, second in command of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened Israel and warned not to attack in Syria again. The comments were made in the aftermath of last week's Israeli attack on Iranian targets in Syria.

As quoted by Syrian state television, Salami said: "We announce that if Israel takes any action to wage a war against us, it will definitely lead to its own elimination and the freeing of occupied (Palestinian) territories."

Speaking at a ceremony inducting Aviv Kochavi, the new head of the IDF, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu responded to Salami. The prime minister said: "I heard the statement made by Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman that they have no military presence in Syria, only advisors ... so I advise them to get out of there quickly, because we will continue our aggressive policy in the region as we've promised."

Most of this is rhetoric - but threats can have a real impact.

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Israel Sends Rescue Team to Brazil
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday a dam collapsed in the southern region of Brazil leaving at least 40 dead and more than 200 people missing. The dam was not just holding back water, it was holding back mining waste and was highly poisonous.

Almost immediately, Israel sent a team of rescue specialists to help find the victims. The Israeli crew is 130 strong and includes a highly trained team of rescue dogs.

Brazil's President Bolsonaro spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Saturday to inform him of the magnitude of the disaster and within 24 hours an emergency team boarded an El Al Charter flight for Brazil.

Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, also a politician, tweeted about Israel coming to Brazil's aid. He wrote: "thanks during this difficult time ... Israel does this because it is a friendly country. It was always around, but was always mistreated by former governments ... Excuse me, but for all the bad guys on duty, you just have keep quiet and look how much good comes of this approach."

Brazil and Israel have a very good relationship.

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France End Arounds Iranian Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

We knew it was happening - now France has made it official.
France has put into place a system to circumvent US sanctions against Iran.

The basic principle is simple. France is creating a non dollar base trade exchange with Iran. This trade with Iran is totally outside the realm of US regulators.

The US system is based on dollars that move through world markets. So if the French/EU system is independent of dollars - then it will be free of the heavy US restrictions.

This new system was announced by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Wednesday and it is totally backed by the Europeans.
Le Drian said that it "should be implemented in the coming days."

This end around US sanctions could have huge implications for US sanctions.
It could be the template for many others to follow and a way to avoid the wrath of the United States by those who insist on dealing with Iran.

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Iran Discovers More Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Surprise - Iran has discovered oil on an island named Abandan. The island is located on a river 35 miles north of the Persian Gulf, just at the nexus where Iran meets Iraq.

The oil was discovered about 4000 yards below the surface. According to the Iranian oil minister, it is the first time they have found oil in this region. There was no public statement as to how large the newly discovered oil reserve is.

The news was reported in Mehr, an official Iranian news site. Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh called the oil discovery "very light and sweet."
Of course now Iran has to try to sell the oil.

President Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, posted a message on his official website. He wrote: "With regard to oil issues, luckily we are pursuing various paths and roads for selling oil and we bypass American sanctions with pride."

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Germany Bans Iranian Airline
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Germany has discovered a spy in their military and as a result the Germans have banned an Iranian airline from entry into Germany.

The airline is called Mahan Air and Germany asserts that Mahan air has shuttled spies and other tools and equipment back and forth into and out of Germany.

They specifically say that the airline is connected to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Guard has direct connection to terror that has taken place in Europe.

In addition over the past year there have been several plots by Iranians to assassinate people in France and Denmark. These included a bomb plot to mass murder people in an anti Iranian rally in France.

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Israeli Elections-Ganz
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli elections are kicking off and it is spending some time looking at a political newcomer.

Benny Ganz, former head of the IDF, has launched his campaign.

Ganz's party is called "Y'Israel Lifnei HaKol". The simple translation is "Israel Before Everything". The translation that better conveys the sentiment behind the simple words would be "Israel is Our Priority".

Ganz sent out a very short video clip in which he says: "For me, Israel comes before everything. Join me and we will launch on a new path because we need something different and we will create something different. The screen then flashes the slogan Y'Israel Lifnei HaKol.

The video closes with Ganz saying he thinks he has "already said too much."

I disagree. In fact, Ganz has said too little. No plan. No ideas. No anything. Just a slogan.

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ISIS Kidnaps a Christian
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS strikes in Egypt again. This time in the Northern part of Sinai where they are free to do as they wish.

The standard targets in ISSI attacks in Egypt are Christians. In addition to kidnapping Christians ISIS attacks churches.

In this case ISIS kidnapped a Christian adult male. He was in a share a ride taxi.

The police were on site in seconds and the police chased the terrorists. One terrorist was killed and 3 wounded. Two police were also wounded in the crossfire.

For ISIS and all extremists Muslims killing a Christian is a goal.

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Malaysia Bans Israeli Athletes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Malaysia has decided to both uninvite and not invite Israelis to every sporting event they host.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the cabinet affirmed last week that no Israeli athletes will be permitted to enter Malaysia for sporting or other events in solidarity with Palestinians.

"The Cabinet has also decided that Malaysia will not host any more events involving Israel or its representatives. This is to me, a decision to reflect the government's firm stance over the Israeli issue."

"Even if we have already committed to hosting an event, they (Israeli athletes) will not be allowed (into the country)," Saifuddin said in a recording of a press conference heard by Reuters.

"It's about fighting on behalf of the oppressed,"he said.

The next sporting event taking place in Malaysia is the world para-swimming competition. It takes place July 29 to August 4 and 70 countries will compete. Israel will not be there. Israel has been uninvited.

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Israel is Growing
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It's January 2019.

It is important to show a few important numbers that help us understand Israel.

There are nearly 9 million people living in Israel. 74.3% of the population is Jewish while 20.9% is Arab.

185,000 babies were born in 2018 and 40,000 people came to live in Israel.

The country population increased by 174,000 or 2% during 2018.

There were 45,000 deaths in Israel and 7,000 Israelis left Israel to live elsewhere.

Overall the numbers are impressive.

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China Arms Sales to MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

China has increased its sales of weapons to the Middle East. This past year they sold 13 billion in arms sales.

That is an increase from 1.4 billion in the 2010. That means that China is one of the most significant arms dealers in the region.

This worries Israel for many reasons. Other than the sheer quantity of the weapons - most worrisome is that China has no limits when it comes to weapons sales. There are no checks and balances on their sales.

Another major worry is that this influx of weapons to the region including to Iran will alter the status quo and lend support to parties and governments that are true enemies of Israel.

This new Chinese weapons position ultimately confirms the reality that China is not trustworthy in the region.

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Iraq Opens A Virtual Israeli Embassy
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Attitudes toward Israel are changing in the Arab world. It's not news, it's the reality.

Here is the latest example: Iraq has opened a virtual Israeli embassy. The embassy was created by a movement called Project Blue Future, it is one of the very many ways the Arab world is interested in reaching out to Israel.

Ali A., the representative of the Project explained it this way: "Project Bright Future was founded in 2011 to establish relations with Israel on the basis of friendship and common interests, ... Our mission is to prepare the ground for this strategic relationship by establishing channels of communication. We believe that Israel is not our enemy."

If nothing else, Project Blue Future offers hope for the future, hope that there is potential for a great future for Israel and the Middle East.

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Abbas To Squeeze Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is poised for national elections on April 9th. In political terms, that is a lifetime away. There is so much that can alter the election prognosis in these next three months.

Just think about the Palestinian issue and how that can impact the Israeli election.

PA leader Mahmoud Abbas is set to put the squeeze on Hamas. The Palestinian Authority dumps about $100 million per month into Gaza, most of it to cover electricity and salaries. Abbas wants to put a stop to that aid. He wants Gazans to suffer and come begging to him for help. Abbas has made comments indicating that if Gazans want to self govern, they must assume the responsibility of governing.

Abbas also plans on withdrawing PA officers at the borders. If that happens, it will it will effectively starve Gaza. Egypt negotiated that PA officers patrol the border with Egypt and Israel was happy with that deal. The PA was committed to keeping weapons out of Gaza. If they pull their patrols off the border, Israel will force the border to be closed.

Abbas, a staunch advocate of paying prisoners cum terrorists for their deeds, is going to stop paying Hamas prisoners. And he is going to stop paying Hamas employees.

Most significant of all is that Abbas is going to rescind the Palestinian Authority passports and travel documents of Hamas employees. That will effectively keep Hamas leadership stewing in Gaza.

Responding to press reports of Abbas' plans, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim seemed unfazed and said that there was nothing new here.

He said: "Any type of sanctions such as electricity, preventing medicine, closing the border or cutting the salaries are intended to blackmail residents into rising against Hamas and they fail ... This is the most that Abbas can do."

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Israel Nixed Arms Deal w Croatia
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just nixed a half billion dollar arms deal with Croatia. The director general of Israel's ministry of defense former general Udi Adam flew to Crotia to inform them personally that the deal would not be realized.

The deal was for 12 F-16's Barak fighter jets that Israel bought from the US 30 years ago.

The US forced Israel to nix the deal.

The US needed to approve Israel's re-sale of a US weapons to a third party ... in this case Croatia. Why does the US care about 30 year old technology?

It was not the US technology that the US was worried about. It was the Israeli upgrades in the radar and sophisticated technology.

The US is worried about the Israeli technology. But the US is most afraid that countries will prefer the superior Israeli version of the F-16 and it will undercut the US weapons sales.

The US is 100%.

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Israel Says 3rd Party Hacking Elections
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The head of Israel's internal Security Service known as the Shin Bet said that a third party country is attempting to influence the Israeli national elections scheduled for April 9.

Nadav Argaman the head of the Shin Bet added that, "[s]hould the need arise, Israel and its community intelligence have the tools and the ability to detect, monitor, and thwart attempts of foreign countries to influence the April elections."

This is important. Israel is constantly the target of cyber attacks. Israel tracks hackers and hacking tools.

Israel is also watching and playing the hacking game with the best hackers in the world. They are playing both sides. They are world class hackers while at the same time they are world class defenders.

Israeli hackers know the weapons that hackers are using and they are on the lookout for the attack and punching back at the hackers.

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Fatah Cancels Gaza Rally in Fear
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Internal tensions are high in the Palestinian world.

A rally march organized to celebrate the 1959 founding of Fatah, the original Palestinian movement, was cancelled. The Fatah supporters living in Gaza wanted to march in Gaza.

The March was cancelled because of internal tensions - Fatah was afraid that Hamas was going to crack down on them. They had reason to be fearful. Leading up to the rally, 500 members of Fatah leadership were arrested.

Gaza is controlled by Hamas and Fatah lives in fear. Not just in Gaza. Hamas is growing in popularity in the West Bank, the once-upon-a-time enclave of the Palestinian Authority.

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Iranian Russian Maneuvers in The Caspian
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:
Iran and Russia are planning their third set of naval exercises. The first took place in 2015 the second in 2017.

This operation will take place soon and they will use the Caspian Sea.

The Caspian Sea is the largest inland lake in the world. It is 640 miles long and 270 miles wide. No surprise - 2 of the countries that abut the Caspian Sea are Iran and Russia. They

The Sea is rich in natural gas and oil and both countries have created many oil and gas rigs there. Both Russia and Iran know that the Caspian is an ideal area for natural resource development.

These naval maneuvers follow a tremendous multi-national deal over control of the Caspian. The final agreement resolves a conflict over the natural resources. Since 1991 the Caspian has been in dispute. Russia take the lion share.

Now matters have been resolved and Russian and Iran are working together.

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Red Dead Water Project
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Jordan are moving ahead on the Red Sea Dead Sea Project.

The purpose of the Project is to bring water from the Red Sea and desalinate it. The byproduct of the desalination, known as brine, will be sent north about 130 miles, to the Dead Sea.

Salty brine will help refill the shrinking Dead Sea.

The newly desalinated water will then be sent to Jordan, Israel's 50/50 partner in this project and it will help solve Jordan's extreme water shortage. Each country is putting up a mere $40 million each year to solve two huge water problems.

The Red Sea Dead Sea Project is a perfect example of how cooperation can help neighbors and the environment, all at the same time.

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Russia Takes Over MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia decided to make their Middle East presence know to everyone.

So the Russians took center stage by pushing the United States out of the position they had been occupying for a long time.

They did it with very little. They did it via media coverage.

Russia has been driving coverage in the Middle East. They are constantly featured as the centerpiece. And while it may not be true - it is the perception. The perception is driving the reality.

And they did it via the sale of weapons.

Russia is selling weapons to the players in the Middle East. Militant groups and entire countries are grateful for the weapons and the training they are receiving. Russian soldiers and contractors are swarming all over the Middle East.

And they did it going the business route.

Russia is driving contracts and business deals. These deals are essential in developing the Middle East. Coverage of the business deals is plastered in the media. And they are bringing in their own Russian investors.

Each of these four actions by the Russian, in and of themselves, is small. Together, they pack a big wallop and turn into a winning combination.

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