Thursday May 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I'm certain that every single reader knows that Israel is heading to snap elections on September 17.

This new election is anything but predictable at this stage. There is no knowing who will win or even how many parties will run.

The most important lesson learned from the earlier election is the simple rule of coalition politics.

The party that gains the plurality -- the most seats -- is not always the party with most power. As we saw -- the breakdown of the coalition negotiations proved this point and catapulted Israel into another national vote.

The smaller parties which are courted by the election winner almost always have significant and power in negotiations. Even small parties exert strength and try to get as much as they can when they join the coalition.

This is coalition politics. This is parliamentary democracy.

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Wednesday May 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

National Interest magazine and website rated Iran's navy as the fourth most powerful in the world.

Iran's is a non-conventional navy. It hardly has 10 active large ships. It does have 34 mini submarines. And that is a huge number. These subs are officially termed midget subs or "littoral" subs. About 24 were locally built in Iran and the rest were built and bought from North Korea.

These electric and diesel subs are extremely useful in the shallow and narrow straits and water ways in the region near Iran. Larger nuclear subs and Western subs cannot maneuver well in the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. These subs are the perfect attack given the terrain.

And that is why Iran's navy is ranked 4th in the world.

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Tuesday May 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is very important to sort the rhetoric from the objectives in understanding President Donald J. Trump.

At a press conference held in Tokyo as part of his visit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, President Trump explained that he wants Iran to be non-nuclear. He explained that he does not want a war and he certainly does not want a change in regime.

Trump said: "I really believe that Iran would like to make a deal, and I think that's very smart of them, and I think that's a possibility to happen."

"It has a chance to be a great country with the same leadership ... We aren't looking for regime change - I just want to make that clear. We are looking for no nuclear weapons."

That was not rhetoric.

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Monday May 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Felix Klein, Germany's Government Commissioner on anti-Semitism, announced that Jews should not wear a kippa in public. Klein said: "I cannot recommend to Jews that they wear the skullcap at all times everywhere in Germany."

In response to Klein's remark Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said: "The statement of the German government's anti-Semitism commissioner that it would be preferable for Jews not wear a kippa in Germany out of fear for their safety, shocked me deeply".

This is not the first time German leadership has warned Jews to be careful and not wear a kippa. Last year the head of the German Jewish community said something similar, but he was more specific and said not to wear a kippa in public especially in large municipalities.

Israelis do not understand what it means to live with anti-Semitism.

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Sunday May 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has arrested a would-be ISIS terrorist. She - yes she, is a 23 year old teacher named Alaa Bashir.
Bashir's plan was to murder as many Israeli Jews as possible. Under interrogation Alaa admitted to her plan and to who trained her. She said that she began life as a potential terrorist by affiliating with al Qaeda and moved on to ISIS. She said that she was recruited via a Telegram group which is highly encrypted.

Alaa Bashir told her arresters that ISIS leaders from Syria and Gaza taught her how to assemble explosive devices.

The PA has been watching Bashir for some time, but because she is the niece of a general in the PA's internal security division, until she had a real plan in place she was left alone.

Now - the incongruity with this arrest by the PA needs to be explained.

Despite tensions in the political sphere, security interaction between Israel and the PA works very well. Security teams are in constant contact and work together towards preventing terror. It's a two-way street. Israel has thwarted attacks against Palestinians, and now the PA has thwarted an attack against Israelis.

And yet, PA political leadership continues to support and even pay terrorists to attack Jewish Israelis. So why stop an ISIS terrorist?

After all, what's the difference - dead Israelis are dead Israelis, no matter if they are killed by PA terrorists or ISIS terrorists. Both groups are united in the desire to murder as many Israelis as possible.

The difference is cause and motivation. Palestinian Authority leadership does not profess the same ideals as ISIS. (Gaza leadership, however, does share some of the ISIS ideology - emphasis on some).

Unlike ISIS, Palestinians do not want an Islamic caliphate.

So despite similar desires to murder Jews and to strike terror in
Israel, ISIS and the PA are not in agreement about fundamental issues. And that's why Alaa Bashir was arrested by the PA before perpetrating acts of terror against Israelis.

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Friday May 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran The Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted a major critique of the president and foreign minister of Iran on his official website Wednesday May 22.

This is a serious public and direct attack against President Hassan Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Khamenei said: "In some extent, I did not believe in the way that the nuclear deal was implemented. Many times I reminded both the president and the foreign minister."

This announcement on his website is an official withdrawal of support. That means the Supreme leader is leaning elsewhere and to the right.
The president and foreign minister serve at the pleasure of the Supreme leader.

The president and the foreign minister made it very clear that they represented a more liberal Iran and the nuke deal was in the best interest of all of Iran.

The Ayatollah was skeptical at the time but went along and gave the deal and the president a chance. We are now seeing the Ayatollah remind us of his pov in 2015. That is his way of saying your days in office are numbered.

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Thursday May 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has, twice in one week intercepted weapons, components and other tools of war headed for Gaza.

The materials were confiscated at Erez Crossing going into Gaza. All the items were being delivered through the mail. They were all ordered online for delivery to Gaza - and then they were stopped.

In total 372 packages were intercepted. On Tuesday 200 packages were intercepted and on Thursday 172 were intercepted.

Look at this list, this is what the Israelis found and confiscated: multi-rotors, tasers, weapons, balaclavas (ski masks), lasers, air-bag mechanisms, field phones, laser-making lathes, navigation equipment, telescopic sights and military-issue shoes.

Hamas and other extremist groups in Gaza are trying very hard to arm themselves.

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Wednesday May 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli backpacker named Bar Azoulay spent over four hours in Teheran.

Azoulay was flying from India to Bucharest, Romania for his brother's prenuptial celebration. On the way, someone on his plane had a heart attack and the plane was forced to land at the nearest airport - and that meant Tehran, Iran.

Azoulay was lucky. Throughout the four plus hour emergency delay he was on the ground. The Israeli fully expected Iranian authorities to demand that he deplane and that would be the end.

Instead, in the end, more than four tense hours later, the plane took off for Istanbul.

Speaking about the medical emergency and the plane's diversion to Teheran, Azoulay said: "After we landed, a medical crew boarded the plane, and I just sat there hoping they won't take us off. I promised myself that if I have to leave, it definitely won't be alone."

Once the medical crew stabilized the patient and he was removed from the plane, "we waited another four hours - and that's it."

Wow!

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Tuesday May 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Deal of the Century is getting a huge amount of press coverage lately.

President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Jason Greenblatt, said the "challenge of reaching a peace deal is extraordinary". He predicted that the great deal will be greeted with criticism. Well of course.

"What we hope is a full, comprehensive peace agreement," Greenblatt said while addressing the World Jewish Congress' annual meeting on Wednesday in Ottawa. "If that can't be achieved, then positive steps forward to help both Palestinians and Israelis and the region would be very good as well."

There should be no doubt that the peace deal will be met with mixed feelings from sides. But the Palestinians have an automatic "no". And that will be what stops the deal in its tracks.

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Monday May 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Rhetoric is extremely high between Iran and the US. US President Trump says the Iran will "face its end" if it attacks the US. This comes after a missile lands too close to the US embassy in Baghdad.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said over the past few days that they do not want war but - "there is no power that can confront us."

Israel added that it will not enter any conflict unless it is attacked.
Of course there is a fear that a skirmish might be sparked by accident.

There is a long history of this in war.

The possibility that some underling somewhere, manning a weapons position will take the rhetoric seriously and push the wrong button in response to something is very possible

But discipline is very important. Middle level military leadership is essential. This is where training is so important.

Rhetoric is simply rhetoric. Neither Iran nor the US want to engage they not should escalate based on rhetoric. They need to walk back the tensions.

We need to watch this carefully over the next few days.

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Sunday May 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah II is in a very precarious situation. Abdullah, who was never a very strong leader, is in a more weakened position than ever. He is in danger of becoming even weaker and he is certainly in danger of being overthrown.

Countries in the region see Jordan's king as irrelevant. They have no interest and no need for Jordan. Abdullah is not looped into any talks, strategy conversations or meetings. Washington barely speaks to him and even when he travels to DC he gets little respect and even less information.

King Abdullah II of Jordan has gotten no details of the famous peace plan.

Israel barely bothers to speak to the Jordanian king. And yet, Jordan needs Israel just like it needs backing from Washington and regional leaders like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Jordan needs their economic aid and needs a commitment to protect and defend the monarchy - his monarchy. But that aid has been dwindling. Leaders do not see the value of Jordan.

Jordan is petrified of neighboring country Syria, petrified by Assad, ISIS, Hezbollah and Iran. On Jordan's other border, Iraq is teaming up with Iran. Jordan has been the magnet for refugees fleeing Syria and Iraq. With those refugees come extremists from ISIS and al Qaeda as well as Iranian agents.

But Israel has not forsaken Jordan, not throwing Abdullah to his neighboring wolves. Israel is helping secure Jordan and it is probably Israel that leaked intelligence to an Arabic media outlet that there was a plot to assassinate key players in the Jordanian government.

Once upon a time Jordan was an important ally to Israel and in the region. Today the Hashemite Kingdom is no longer essential. The problem is that the alternative to Jordan is far worse. Despite their current status, for the sake of a stable region, Jordan and King Abdullah II must be reinvigorated and revitalized.

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Friday May 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Understanding Qatar requires clear insight and a watchful eye.
Qatar is emerging as a significant player in the Middle East, especially with regard to the Palestinians. Of late, Qatar is even exerting influence on Hamas and on Islamic Jihad.

At the same time - Qatar is siding with Iran against other Sunni nations. So much so that Saudi Arabia and their minions are united against Qatar.

The best example of their influence in the Middle East is the $480 million that Qatar gave to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to solidify a ceasefire with Israel. Egypt was not able to broker the agreement. The PA was not even in the room. The UN was irrelevant. Islamic Jihad, despite recently seeming to emerge as a force, was non-existent.

Qatar procured a ceasefire.

There's more. Turkey and Qatar have developed a very good relationship and that relationship, too, will be leveraged exponentially to propel Qatar into the role of regional influencer.

We need to keep a better watch on the Qataris.
Qatar may be isolated from their fellow Sunnis, but they have become remarkably successful at relationship building and power broking and have even begun to encroach on the role of Saudi Arabia as the region's great influencer.

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Thursday May 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Eight griffon vultures were found dead in the Golan Heights. They were poisoned. Two others were poisoned and have been taken to an Israeli wildlife clinic. This was not terror -- it was the dastardly act of selfish people.

The Israeli authorities are investigating.

These birds of prey are huge - 9 feet wingspan 4 feet in length. They are so strong that they can literally pick up a baby calf or goat. The primary suspects are cattle owners who have poisoned griffons in the past.

These 10 birds are more than half of the entire griffon population in the region. What makes the timing of the mass killing even worse is that this is nesting season. Nesting is when the eggs are laid and they sit in the nest. The eggs need to be protected in order to hatch.

The eggs will probably not survive, creating yet another blow to the griffon population.

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Wednesday May 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Nakba is the Palestinian Day of Catastrophe. It is May 15, 1948. The Day is remembered every May 15 since 1948.

Nakba, of course, corresponds to the Gregorian date of Israel's independence. It sounds strange -- Israel's creation is a Palestinian catastrophe -- but this is part of Palestinian culture.

This year there were Palestinian rallies throughout the region. One particular rally was at the Gaza border at the site of the Friday weekly rallies which are called the "March of Return." They gather and try to march through the border fence separating Gaza and Israel and then the purpose is to take Israel from the Israelis.

They attempt to breach the fence and the IDF uses various methods to stop them.

Hamas launches balloons and kites with bombs they roll burning truck tires.

It is hardly a peaceful protest. People often get hurt and some even die. So far today there have been no fatalities and injuries. Today, Hamas created a series of points where people should gather near the border fence. Hamas is clamping down and trying to control any violence to prove that they are in charge and to preserve the fragile cease fire with Israel.

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Tuesday May 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Olympic Committee has officially announced that they concluded meetings with the International Judo Federation.

Iranian Judokas will now compete against Israelis.

Of course, the announcement did not mention Israel. It specifically referred to the Tokyo Olympics which will take place in the summer of 2020.

Over the years Iranian athletes have missed weigh-ins, faked injuries or found other excuses to get out and even forfeit their matches when they were scheduled to compete against Israelis.

The head of the Iranian Basiji Athletes Organization, General Daoud Azarnoush, had a different take on the announcement of Iran's new policy. He said that he hopes Israel will be wiped out before the next summer Olympic games in Tokyo when Israel and Iran will likely compete.

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Monday May 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Eurovision song competition began Sunday in Tel Aviv. While not a very popular music competition in the United States, Eurovision is the biggest musical event of the year worldwide.

As expected, there were calls for boycotts and threats of terror. More than 20,000 Israeli police are on hand - just in case. 250 million people around the world are expected to watch and Madonna, we are told, is scheduled to take the stage in a show of solidarity with Israel.

Each year, the previous winner's home country hosts Eurovision. Israel is hosting this year because last year's Israeli contestant, a woman named Netta Barzilai, won the competition with the song Toy. The Israelis created a huge statue of Netta in downtown Tel Aviv.

Israel has won Eurovision four previous times, once with the iconic song Halleluyah.

Two semi-final rounds will take place in Tel Aviv on May 14th and May 16th. The grand finale will be held on May 18th.

For Israel, winning and then hosting Eurovision, an international event based on merit and creativity, engenders a renewed sense of pride and validation. It is perfectly timed after Israel Independence Day and Jerusalem Day.

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Friday May 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I do not like to write about the United Nations but sometimes what happens is so outrageous I cannot remain silent.

The United Nations Security Council met to condemn Israel. They did not condemn Hamas for launching 700 rockets into Israel.

President Trump's Special Envoy Jason Greenblatt appeared at was is called and Arria Formula meeting. He condemned the UNSC for their present act and their history.

"Where is the urgent condemnation from this room for that unconscionable, sustained attack? Where is the sympathy and the solidarity for the people of Israel? All I hear is silence," Greenblatt said.

"It is baffling and disappointing to see the obvious, continual anti=Israel bias here. Here we are in an Arria session to condemn Israel, in the same halls where just a few months ago, Member States failed to condemn Hamas, a known terrorist organization that just a few days ago fired close to 700 rockets at Israel - including at hospitals and schools," Greenblatt said.

"It is truly shameful that in these halls there have been nearly 700 resolutions condemning actions of Israel - the region's only real democracy - yet not one condemning Hamas' attacks on Israelis or its abuse and neglect of the very people it purports to govern," Greenblatt said.

Looking beyond Gaza, he said, the UNSC has never held an "Arria or session of any kind focused on Palestinian terrorism or incitement."

"Let's stop pretending that settlements are what is keeping the sides from a negotiated peaceful solution. This farce and obsessive focus on one aspect of this complicated conflict helps no one," Greenblatt said.

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Thursday May 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is Israel's 71 birthday!

This is no small fete. Israel has transformed the world during those 71 years. Not just the Jewish world --- the entire world. The world is a better place because Israel exists.

During the first few years after Israel was established -- it was not at all clear that Israel would survive. That was the second miracle -- the first being the creation of the state itself. At any moment the young fledgling state could be over run by her hostile neighbors.

And yet Israel survived and grew now to over 9 million citizens (9,021,000 to be exact).

The creation of Israel and its continued strength and success illustrate several important points in history. The first is that the destiny of the Jewish people is not victimhood but creativity and productive contributions. Despite the horrors of Holocaust, Israel emerged as fulfillment of the age old dream of building the promised land, the holyland.

Being connected to the land of Israel is transformative. That connection is called Zionism. It changed the Jews as individuals and as a community. There is a stark contrast in Jewish life between pre and post 1948, the year Israel was established.

It was a watershed. It was one of the greatest most drastic distinctions in history. Within a period of 15 years (1941-1956) Jews went from horror to rebirth to builders. Ask any Jew who lived before and after.

Never take this miracle for granted. And remember that the miracle continues today and every day.

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Wednesday May 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

There are several interesting pieces of information to be noted about the barrage of nearly 700 rockets that were just launched toward and into Israel.

90 of those rockets never made it into Israel. 240 were intercepted by the Iron Dome. Most of the others landed in empty areas.

It is estimated that between Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Gaza is in possession of between 5,000 and 20,000 rockets and missiles. Most of the rockets are short range but some, especially those missiles smuggled in from Iran, have the ability to reach far into Israel.

The Iranian supplied missiles aside, most of the rockets in Gaza are locally built in work-sheds and industrial parks. They are made from materials smuggled into Gaza.

The price is the most remarkable aspect of these locally made rockets. They cost anywhere between one hundred dollars and a few hundred dollars. The price depends on what goes into the rocket, especially the propellant.

Gaza's terrorists can develop a powerful weapon for a fraction of the cost of the Iranian-made rockets. The Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets and missiles shot from Gaza into Israel, costs up to tens of thousands of dollars for each intercept.

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Tuesday May 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Every year, on the eve of Israel's anniversary, they release the country's population numbers. The numbers are humbling given Israel's short, 71 year history, and the realization that just a few years ago Jews suffered a Holocaust.

Today, the total population of Israel is 9,021,000 people. That's the official number given by the annual report released by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. The report was made public on Sunday.

The report divides the population into different demographics.
6,697,000 of Israelis are Jews (74.2%).
1,890,000 are Arabs (20.9%).
434,000 belong to other religions (4.8%).

Israel is just a little larger than Papua, New Guinea and just a little smaller than Switzerland and Austria. It is miraculous that Israel has accomplished so much and is on track to accomplish so much more.

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Monday May 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar tweeted a defense of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. She tweeted after Palestinians launched more than 600 rockets into Israel and Israel struck back at launch sites and command and control centers.

She wrote: "How many more protesters must be shot, rockets must be fired, and little kids must be killed until the endless cycle of violence ends? The status quo of occupation and humanitarian crisis in Gaza is unsustainable. Only real justice can bring about security and lasting peace." in a tweet Sunday night.

This is stunning. But even more stunning was this response to a NYTimes headline. The headline read "Gaza Militants Fire 250 Rockets and Israel Responds with Airstrikes."

Rashida Tlaib Democrat from Michigan and a Palestinian American tweeted: "When will the world stop dehumanizing our Palestinian people who just want to be free? Headlines like this & framing it in this way just feeds into the continued lack of responsibility on Israel who unjustly oppress & target Palestinian children and families. #FreePalestine"

WOW! Simply warped

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Sunday May 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza launched 430 rockets into Israel on Saturday morning thru Sunday morning. 180 of the rockets were fired overnight.

Israel retaliated by striking 130 sites in Gaza.

Early on Saturday morning Gaza began the barrage by sending 50 rockets toward heavily populated cities and towns. Israel's Iron dome was launched and intercepted some of the rockets.

Over the course of the day Gaza continued to loft rockets into Israel. Israel struck back at what appears to have been a predetermined set of locations. but there was some collateral damage. In Gaza a pregnant mother and her fourteen-month old child were killed. And in Israel a sixty year old man was injured and then died from his wounds.

We must monitor this very carefully. The response and the counter response between Gaza and Israel will determine whether or not this barrage escalates into a much larger set of events or even into a military operation.

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Friday May 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt takes its role as mediator between Israel and Gaza very seriously. Tensions are rising and the conflict might escalate.

In response Egypt has invited or rather summoned the leaders of Hamas specifically Yahya Sinwar and the leaders of Islamic Jihad to Cairo.
They are not simply concerned about the tensions at the Gaza border with Israel.

This week numerous balloons and kites were launched in to Israel was well as a rocket which missed its target and landed in the Mediterranean Sea. The rocket was launched by Islamic Jihad - they accepted responsibility for the attack.

In response Israel struck Hamas and Jihad positions from the air.
Israeli leadership has threatened that if things do not come under control in Gaza and if things are not become calmer they will re-institute their policy targeting Hamas and Jihad leadership. Targeting is a euphemism for saying assassinate.

Hamas in turn announced that if assassinations resume then they will start launching rockets at major cities in Israel.

The threat is real and escalation seems very possible.

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Thursday May 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Countries in the Middle East spend more on defense than anywhere else in the rest of the world. And now the United States is urging NATO to reduce its defense spending to 2% from about 5% of their GDP.

Most countries in the Middle East spend 10% or more of their GDP on defense - especially on purchasing weapons. Oman spends 11% and Saudi Arabia spends 10.8%. Afghanistan spends 10.1% of its budget on defense.

Seven out of the top ten defense spenders are Middle East countries and ten out of the fifteen largest spenders are from the Middle East and North Africa.

There are several essential points to be learned from this information. First is that both the United States and Russia benefit from supplying these weapons. Next is that it means that the Middle East is being armed way beyond their need.

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Wednesday May 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A video of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has surfaced. He took responsibility for the deadly terror attack, the mass murder in Sri Lanka. Baghdadi also outlined the role of the Islamic State - IS without a state.

French Intel said that: "The video of al-Baghdadi - the Caliph without a caliphate - is to be considered with caution at this stage. French services are analyzing it."

French Intel continued: "If this video is authentic, it confirms what we have repeated: Daesh (Islamic State) has no territory, but Daesh has not disappeared."

The important point is that IS is still very much alive with or without Baghdadi. If Baghdadi is alive then IS is not just alive but will certainly have an explosive resurgence in the near future.

Be aware and be alert!

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