Sunday June 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

15 Palestinians attended the Bahrain conference.
And on Friday, Palestinian police raided their homes to arrest all 15 of them.

The police confiscated computers and security cameras. Only one person was arrested the others escaped or went in to hiding before their homes were raided.

Hebron businessman Saleh abu Mayaleh was the person arrested. He spent two days in jail and was released after the US embassy sent a very strong letter to the PA.
Jason Greenblatt, White House Special Envoy tweeted a response after abu Mayaleh's release:

"We are pleased the PA has released the Palestinian they arrested after attending the Peace to Prosperity workshop. We look fwd to continuing our conversation w all who attended the workshop & anyone else who wants a better future for the Palestinians."

Before the Peace to Prosperity Conference the Palestinian press published the names and pictures of those planning to attend the workshop and called them all traitors.

The charge against them was treason.

Talk about an extreme reaction.

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Friday June 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The workshop in Bahrain is over.

Palestinians are calling it a big nothing.
The United States is optimistic - after all, it is the first stage in
their "Deal of the Century."

There was very little coverage of the Bahrain workshop in mainstream US media. There was very little coverage in the Israeli media.

Actually, the most covered news items in the Israel news cycle at the time that the workshop was taking place were the US presidential debates and the Iranian threat.

On the whole, there was more media coverage to the lead up to the workshop than there was of the workshop itself.

One can never really predict how a news cycle will develop. In many ways modest coverage is helpful - but, then again, it proves the point for the Palestinians,

Bahrain was in the media, but on the sidelines.

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Thursday June 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia announced yesterday that they have information that the US drone that was shot down by Iran was over Iranian airspace.

Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of Russia's Security Council, made it clear that their information indicates that the US encroached on Iranian air space and hence, Iran was justified in shooting down the US drone.

He followed up and said that the pictures, video and information that the US provided was fuzzy and very unprofessional and therefore unconvincing. He clearly said that he does not believe the US argument.

This is a devastating statement by Russia. They are siding with Iran over the United States. The Russian statement also raised doubts about whether the US is telling the truth - and that plays right into the Iranian playbook which repeats over and over that the United States has fabricated facts about Iran.

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Wednesday June 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The British Royal Air Force Defense Ops tweeted about and confirmed a three country joint training operation with US, British and Israeli participants.

This was not just any training operation. This was a joint training exercise for the Lightning F-35B - the most advanced fighter jet in the world. One of the specifications of the F-35B is that it is a stealth jet.

The British released a picture of 6 jets - 2 British, 2 US and 2 Israeli - in arrowhead formation. Each of the countries was flying two F-35s.

The F-35 has already flown many missions for Israel, especially over Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. There are also rumblings about the F-35 flying several missions over Iran.

Making this information public is very important. It is a clear statement to Iran. It tells Iran that these three countries, Great Britain, the United States and Israel, each have the ability to enter Iran and then leave without even being seen.

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Tuesday June 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The new elections in Israel on September 17, will certainly have new parties. Two new ones are in the works.

One new party to emerge is headed by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak the only person who actually defeated Bibi in an election. He was the leader of the Labor Party. Labor has since imploded.

Ehud Barak is putting together a great new team. The names include former foreign minister and head of the Kadima Party Tzipi Livni.
Also, Dan Meridor a former Likud minister. Yair Golan former deputy chief of staff of the IDF is also part of the team. The final person to round out the top of this all-star team is Adina Bar Shalom. Bar Shalom is the extremely talented and well known daughter of Rav Ovadia Yosef, former Chief Rabbi and founder of Shas.

The emergence of this party will leach from the New Blue and White coalition. Barak has been rumored to have also spoken to Yair Lapid one of the heads of the Blue and White.

The second new party is far less nationally or internationally enticing. The mayor of Tiberias Ron Kobi is its head. The name of his party is the "Secular Right."

Many more parties will emerge some with better chances than others.

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Monday June 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The whole world knows that the Palestinians are not pleased with the Trump administration's Deal of the Century, but the truth is that there are Israelis who are not happy with it, as well. And not simply the prime minister. Many leaders of parties that will become part of the next coalition government will find parts of the deal highly objectionable.

Yet, despite those problematic areas, Israel must say "yes" in principle to the Deal of the Century.

Saying "yes" is how one gets a great deal.

The deal is a framework, a text upon which to work. It is a draft. Some items stay in, some are changed or modified and improved, others come out.

From Israel's point of view some issues - like questions of security, will need to be re- referenced and re-evaluated. The best example we have from what has, so far, been made public is linking Gaza with the West Bank via a train and highway.

Israel has rejected this idea for decades, ever since it was first proposed. It was always nixed for security purposes. Any route connecting Gaza and the West Bank would serve as an easy route of transport for terrorists and weapons.

Israel needs to think seriously about how they are going to deal with each proposal.

The Palestinians should have said yes and should be doing the same thinking.

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Sunday June 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

USCC is the United States Cyber Command.

The USCC launched a retaliatory strike against Iran this weekend.
This has been a very busy week, cyber speaking. The big news was that Iran attacked US interests, striking tankers in The Sea of Oman. Lesser known news is that Iranian cyber teams were also kept busy attacking many other interests in the region and beyond.

In addition to the United States, Iranians attacked Saudi, Bahraini, UAE and other US computer systems.

In response to the tanker attacks, probably exacerbated by tensions resulting from the computer systems attacks -- or maybe the opposite -- The USCC launched a barrage of attacks against the Iranians.
It's important to note that Iran's cyber aggression team is directly connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Many questions have been left unanswered. It is not clear if this USCC cyber response is the response President Trump was referring to when he referred to striking Iran or if there is more of a response to come. It is also not clear who was hit by the US and how large the attack was. And we do not know if the US hit the Guard's naval force, the military body that has been wreaking havoc in the region.

What is clear is that a cyber attack can be far more destructive than any missile strike.

We learned that lesson from the Stuxnet cyber virus attack against Iran. Stuxnet and follow-up cyber strikes were enormously effective. Effective cyber attacks can set Iran back by months, even years.
The down side is that with each US-led attack, Iran improves its cyber defense capabilities.

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Friday June 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is aware that Iran is feeling frustrated because the United States has not responded to their traps. The Iranians are also disappointed that the US has not al changed their policy toward them.

So, Israel thinks that Iran may decide to elevate tensions with the United States and take them up a notch, up them to a higher level.

That may mean attacking Israel - especially a border area in Israel. Iran would not make the move themselves, they would probably use Hezbollah, their proxy, or utilize their forces in Syria wearing Syrian uniforms and attacking from Syrian positions.

It is unrealistic for Iran to think that taunting the United States or US allies will result in a changing in US policy toward Iran. And yet, that is exactly what Iran is hoping for.

Israel will do its best to intercept an attack or preemptive strike coming from Hezbollah or Syria. Remember, Israel is not limited to the restraints that constrain the United States.

Should Iran conduct an attack against them, Israel will almost certainly respond and strike at the heart of the bases that perpetrated the attack.

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Wednesday June 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Strange but positive things are going on between Israel and Gaza.

One of those things is related to sewage, the other is related to electricity.

The Gaza sewage system is in a state of total collapse. Gaza's sewage system sends its waste overflowing into Israel causing a real environmental and health hazard. Thousands of cubic meters of waste from Gaza flow into Israel every day.

Israel has been intercepting the waste and piping it to Kibbutz Erez for treatment, but the kibbutz pipes are small and the plant is tiny.
So Israel came up with a different solution.

There will be a new, heavy duty pipeline that will carry waste directly from Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia in Gaza to the Sderot sewage treatment plant. This re-routing of Gaza's sewage waste will save both the Western Negev and Gaza.

Israel needs to handle the sewage issue because, if ignored or mishandled, it could contaminate drinking water and the soil. Israel's drinking water comes from the aquifer which is a natural purifier in the ground.

There's more. It also looks like Israel will build a new electric line to Gaza, paid for by Qatar. Qatar has met with Israel and they have come to an agreement. The cost and the actual amount of money that Qatar will pay has not been made public, but Qatar has already made several payments to Gaza for other projects and they total hundreds of millions of dollars.

Things are looking up for Gaza.

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Monday June 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is luring the United States into a trap.
All these attacks against oil tankers and other US interests are Iran's way of trying to have US President Donald J. Trump respond.

And should Trump respond - any response will be deemed excessive and disproportionate and will play right into the hands of Iran and their public relations campaign. Iran's bottom line remains unvaried, the United States is unfairly targeting Iran.

My advice to the White House and the president is do not take the bait! Even when Iran escalates their targeting - do not take the bait. The only action I would recommend is interception.

Interception is when the United States sees an attack happening, intervenes and stops it before it reaches its target. In doing so the evidence will be clear that Iran was responsible and the Iranians will be publicly humiliated.

The situation is, quite obviously, problematic and extremely explosive. The potential for a larger conflict is certainly there.
And the lesson to be gleaned by Russia, China and North Korea should the United States let US interests be attacked without responding would have serious future ramifications for the US .

Israel is one of the United State's greatest strategic interests. Shared enemies may decide that the US and Israel will not respond to minor attacks so as not to escalate tensions with Iran and then go ahead and pepper them with small attacks.

None the less - and I can't stress this enough, it is essential that the United States hold firm and not respond to Iranian taunts and teases right now.

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Friday June 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions with Iran are spiraling out of control.

A spokesperson for China went on record yesterday explaining that the situation must calm down and that no one wants war in the Gulf.

The attack on two Saudi oil tankers and the subsequent pointing of fingers at Iran by the United States and the release of a video showing Iranian Revolutionary Guards, only served to ratchet up tensions.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe was in Teheran when this all happened. His purpose was to deliver a message from US President Trump to the Grand Ayatollah urging them to sit down and talk.

The Ayatollah said: "Trump is not worthy." In response Trump tweeted: "They are not ready, and neither are we!"

We need to closely monitor the situation.

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Thursday June 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Balloon terrorism has entered a new stage.

Terrorists lofting balloons into Israel are now using slow burning wicks.

They have found a more powerful, yet still simple, way to terrorize Israelis. A six inch burning wick falling from the sky.

Slow burning wicks break off and continue to burn. That means one balloon which used to have only one attack point, now has three or four attack points. There is the final point - where the balloon drops, and the three other points where the wick breaks off and remains lit as it hits the ground and starts a fire.

This is a major advance for the Palestinians. It is an inexpensive and effective improvement.

Israel discovered this new terror devise after a series of balloon fires were doused and no remains of balloons were found. Israeli authorities watched the video tracking and they saw how that had happened.

This is very difficult weapon to defend against it. There is no way to stop it.

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Wednesday June 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians are putting together a full court press to influence their natural partners and supporters to boycott or even back out of the US economic workshop in Bahrain.

Today the PA went on Facebook with an appeal to the greater world to influence Jordan and Egypt to change their minds and not attend the workshop. Their hope is that public humiliation will impact decisions.

"The Palestinian Authority urges Egypt and Jordan not to attend the Bahrain conference," Ibrahim Melhem, a spokesman for the Palestinians wrote on Facebook after it was announced the two Arab countries and Morocco would participate.

Melhem continued, "all brotherly and friendly countries to withdraw," adding that participation "would carry wrong messages about the unity of the Arab position" on rejecting Trump's plan.

Lebanon said they would not attend because they have not been consulted. Now really - why would the US consult Lebanon?

One of the biggest problems emerging out of this entire episode is that countries and leaders, including the Palestinians, have an unrealistic understanding of their true import and role in the larger picture - not just of the Middle East region, but of the world in general.

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Wednesday June 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

In Northern Iran, in the small village of Kiasar, an enactment of a mock attack on Israel, the White House and a US Naval ship was staged.

Fake rockets were emblazoned with the famous quote from the former leader and founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini reading, "Israel must be erased from the annals of history."

The staged presentation was broadcast on Iranian TV. Present were heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Commander General Ali Fazli remarked: "This symbolic missile demonstrates their willpower and their faith. In fact, if there is a need one day, this place will be transformed into a real base for the defense of the religion of God."

In the video presentation of the strike a narrator is heard saying: "Prepare to erase Israel from the annals of history. This mark of shame will quickly and permanently be erased from the annals of the world. This base of global Zionism, England, and America - we shall raze it to the ground, and we shall erase it from the annals of history."

And the crowd applauded.

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Friday June 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas made a statement today that illustrates just how different they are from the Palestinian Authority.

PA President Mahmoud Abbass sent a message of condolence to Israel's President Reuven Rivlin on the death of his wife Nechama.

Hamas ripped into Abbas. They branded him a traitor who had abandoned the memories of terrorists and accused him of disrespecting the families of terrorists.

Hamas even issued a statement that read: "Abbas's condolences are a betrayal of the Palestinian people, a knife in the hearts of the martyrs' families, and a complete disregard of their feelings."

This should be obvious - but there is a huge difference between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. There is tremendous tension between the two Palestinian factions, tensions that often erupt into lethal violence.

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Thursday June 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For people who follow The Scripps National Spelling Bee this year's competition was more exciting than the Super Bowl.

Many people were amazed because the judges ruled that the competition was over and named eight national champions.

I found it amazing because three of the words in the competition were Yiddish.

Two of the Yiddish words were given to a 7th grader, contestant No. 5, Rishik Gandshari from San Jose, California.

The first Yiddish word he was given was "Yiddishkeit". He spelled it correctly. A little bit later he was given the Yiddish-Hebrew word "Keriah". The judges told Rishik that the word derives from Yiddish. Actually, "Keriah" really comes from the Hebrew. It means rending clothes during Jewish mourning. The judges defined it as tearing clothes in Jewish mourning ritual.

Finally, the last Yiddish word was "Lekach" the honey cake eaten by Ashkenazi Jews on and around Rosh Hashanah.

Wow.

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Wednesday June 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

At the end of Ramadan, the month of daily fasting, Muslims around the world celebrate. The celebration is called Eid el Fitr.

Because the Muslim calendar is a lunar calendar, based on the moon, and because that calendar has not been fixed or standardized like the Hebrew calendar, the celebration of Ramadan and Eid el Fitr varies from year to year.

Most of the Muslim world celebrates on June 5, but some celebrated on June 4. The cause of the disagreement centers on the question of how they calculate and see the new moon. So the date of the Eid depends on local leadership and their declaration of when the Eid begins.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE started Eid on Tuesday June 4, whereas Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan and Australia and others start today, Wednesday. The Palestinians, also, celebrate on June 5.

That brings me to the photo I saw of Palestinian police beating a Muslim Arab. The victim chose to celebrate the Eid on Tuesday, June 4 instead of Wednesday, June 5. They beat him with heavy four-foot wooden batons. The victim was on the ground.

This is a horrific act - and not simply because of the beating. It demonstrates just how intolerant the Palestinian system is for people who disagree. Where is religious freedom? Where is the protection of this man's rights? Whom did he hurt? Who will be held accountable for this gross violation of human rights?

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Tuesday June 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat the Secretary of the PLO Executive Committee announced on Sunday that Israel is a security threat to the region.

On Twitter Erekat wrote:
"The Israeli occupation's aggression and provocations inside Al-Aqsa Mosque compound." He continued "will be responsible for a new wave of violence to hit the whole region."

Erekat is repeating the very same tropes from 20 years ago. That the Middle East is about to explode because of Israel and their relationship with the Palestinians.

It should be clear that most of the leaders in the Middle East have lost patience with the Palestinians. And over the past year Palestinian leadership has once again tried to provoke the Arab masses into a frenzy because of some Israeli policy or another - even policies of safety and security at the Temple Mt did not cause mayhem. (Remember the Metal detectors).

Pundits thought that the Friday protests at the Gaza border would trigger mass riots around the Arab world. They did not. Many worried that every Friday during the month of Ramadan that there would be huge riots in Jerusalem which would cascade to violence around the world.

But these events were practically irrelevant and even if a small ripple was felt after some event - each blow back was temporary.

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Monday June 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Numerous times over the past few months the White House and the State
Department have told the Russians that they support Israel attacking Syrian targets.

Those targets include Hezbollah, pro-Iranian militias, Iranian advisers, weapons depots, transfers of weapons, command and control centers and launch and radar facilities.

The US explained that as-long-as Iran is present in Syria, Israel will consider it to be a direct threat and Israel will be justified in targeting Syrian military and all the other potential threats.

Israel, in the meantime, is planning a tri-lateral summit - Russia, the United States and Israel. The obvious topics of discussion will be Syria and Iran.

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