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Media Joined Hamas on Oct7
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 9, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

I was stunned to see video and still photos – IN REAL TIME. of the Hamas Massacre of Jews SHOT BY JOURNALISTS from AP, Reuters, CNN. I did not see NYT material but am told there is also NYT footage.

***Photos of Hamas terrorists taking hostages on golfcarts and motorcycles.
***Photos showing Hamas terrorists burning an Israeli tank.
***Photos showing Hamas terrorists breaking through the border fence with Israel.

We know what that means:
It means that photojournalists had ADVANCE NOTICE OF THE MASSACRE !!!
Did their supervisors and their news desks know ???

This is not a small incident.
Nearly 1500 innocent lives could 5000 wounded 240 kidnapped to get a story ????
Their pictures are nearly identical to the Go-Cam footage taken by Hamas.
It’s like knowing of a murder and choosing to cover it and not telling the police - ONLY 6740 TIMES WORSE.

The photos are real - the question is WHO KNEW ???

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Ripping Down Posters
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 2, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The posters of kidnapped Israelis have become another flashpoint in the war between Israel and Hamas.
One group of people putting them up - another taking them down.

Interesting how flyers and posters, relics from the pre-internet age, have not just made a comeback – but they’ve come back with a, quite literal, bang!
There’s a reason for these flyers and posters and photos being such a hot button issue.

Lovers of Israel put the flyers up to tangibly show real examples of Jewish victims of Hamas’ horrible acts of terror.

The other side – Jew haters, are deeply offended – offended and insulted BECAUSE the posters display the reality of true Israeli victims.

For those who hate, Israelis can’t be victims – for those who hate, Jews are the oppressors and the real victims are only those in Gaza and all other Palestinians.

It is a battle of victims. And that explains why supporters of Hamas have hijacked the very same pictures and posters and flyers that they initially tore down and scratched out and replaced the word “Kidnapped” above each photo with the word “Occupier.”

Remember: Who is the real victim in this war.


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Israel Fights a Media War
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 31, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is fighting for survival on another front – not on the Gaza border or on the Lebanese border, not on the ground and not in the air.

This is a battle about facts - a battle for the truth.
It is being waged on the internet, in the blogosphere, in the media.

The parallel is Holocaust Denial -. those who challenge the veracity of the horrors perpetrated on October 7.

They say Hamas did not murder children. This Massacre Denial is ripping through the Muslim and Arab world – it is very pervasive in young adult communities online.

Even Queen Rania of Jordan, in a 19 minute interview, claimed that babies were not killed.

Truth is precious, it should not be trampled upon.


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Language Counts
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 30, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Language counts!

Israel is being attacked not only militarily, but also linguistically!
In the “spirit” of even handedness, leading figures and organizations justify terror and whitewash terrorists.
Like the statement: It “did not happen in a vacuum”.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the UN Security Council that the Hamas massacre of Israelis on October 7 "did not happen in a vacuum," because Palestinians have been subjected to 56 years of "suffocating occupation." He said that he is "deeply concerned about clear violations of international humanitarian law that we are witnessing in Gaza."

Like those calling: Hamas “militants and combatants” not terrorists.
AP, the world's largest news agency, updated their style guide instructing reporters and organizations that rely on its style guide not to call Hamas a terrorist organization. It suggests "militants," "Hamas fighters," “attackers” or "combatants."


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Abbas Changes his Tune
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 23, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority's official news agency published comments by President Mahmoud Abbas that criticized Hamas over its actions - but later removed reference to the terrorist group without providing an explanation.

The comments, published by WAFA on its website, were made during a phone call between Abbas and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The two discussed Israel's bombardment of Gaza following Hamas' deadly rampage through Israeli cities. The original WAFA report on Abbas' call included the now-deleted line: "The president also stressed that Hamas' policies and actions do not represent the Palestinian people.

The policies, programs and decisions of the (Palestine Liberation Organization) represent the Palestinian people as their sole legitimate representative."
Several hours later, the phrase was adjusted to read: "The president also stressed that the policies, programs, and decisions of the PLO represent the Palestinian people as their sole legitimate representative, and not the policies of any other organization."

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Human
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 22, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

After the Human Rights Watch organization accused the IDF of using phosphorus bombs in their attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, the IDF spokesman for foreign media, Jonathan Conricus, was asked by reporters what type of weapons Israel uses in attacks in the Gaza Strip. His unequivocal response was: "We use weapons that meet NATO standards. We are committed to international law, and generally try to use the lightest and most accurate weapons we have to hit specific targets."

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IRS Gives Help to Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 21, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has announced that, following the terrorist attack on Israel, Israelis with American citizenship will be eligible for tax relief and will be able to defer the payment of their US taxes for a year. According to estimates by the US State Department, there are more than 500,000 Israeli-Americans with dual citizenship who will be eligible for the benefits. The IRS also announced that it will continue to monitor the events in Israel and that it may provide additional relief.

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Biden on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 20, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

U.S. President Joe Biden said he is "confident" Israel will act under the rules of war in its conflict with Palestine, and then added that deploying U.S. troops is not necessary. In an interview with "60 Minutes," Biden said that while he believes Hamas must be eliminated entirely, there must be a path for a Palestinian state. The US president cautioned that the threat of terrorism in the United States had increased due to unrest in the Middle East.


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China, Iran Side w Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 19, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with his Iranian counterpart. The minister from China said that Beijing "will stand on the side of peace and justice, and will support the Palestinian people in their just cause of preserving their national rights." Wanf Yi also said that the main reason for what is happening now is the fact that the Palestinians' right to a state has been abandoned, and he claimed that "this historical injustice must be put to an end as soon as possible." Of course he blamed the United States and Israel.

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Bono U2 Honors Massacred Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 14, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

One day after the mass murder of over 1000 Jews in Israel, while on stage in Las Vegas, Nevada, Bono, the lead singer for the very popular group U2, mourned the hundreds of Israeli youth murdered by Hamas at the Supernova nature party near the Gaza Strip.

Bono told the crowd: “We sing for our brothers and sisters, who they themselves were singing at the Supernova Sukkot festival in Israel. We sing for those. Our people. Our kind of people. Music people, playful, experimental people. Our kind of people. We sing for them.”

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EU Flipflops on Palestinian Aid
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 13, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

On Monday, the European Commission said that aid payments for Palestinians would NOT be suspended. That statement directly contradicts an earlier statement made by one of its top officials earlier the same day. The Commission said it was launching a review of its assistance for Palestine following Hamas' attack on Israel at the weekend. According to the second statement: "In the meantime, as there were no payments foreseen, there will be no suspension of payments".

The earlier statement was released on X by Oliver Varhelyi, the European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement.

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IDF Finds a Hamas Tunnel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 12, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit reported that the Israel Air Force (IAF) attacked Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including the entrance to an underground terror tunnel utilized by Hamas to infiltrate into Israel. Additionally, Hamas weapon caches, war rooms, and military equipment storerooms were attacked by the IAF.


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Tel Aviv Making Kosher Food for Soldiers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 11, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Not surprisingly, Israel has imposed a total blockade of the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’ Israeli bloodbath.

Also not surprisingly, official PA media have cheered the terror. One image even depicts Israel as a rat being crushed by Hamas.

And pleasantly surprising, several restaurants in the Tel Aviv area that have not been kosher are now kashering their kitchens – making their kitchens kosher, so that they can help out in sending foods to the large number of Israeli soldiers and reservists now being deployed across Israel.


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Abbas Running Away To Moscow
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 10, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is on the move and is expected to visit Moscow. Russian news media has quoted the Palestinian envoy to Moscow as saying: "We are awaiting an official statement from the Kremlin, from the Russian side, about when the visit will take place."
Russia's RBC news outlet quoted Palestinian Ambassador Abdel Hafiz Nofal as saying: "An agreement has been reached that Mr. Abbas will come here to Moscow." Separately, the PA ambassador told Russia's state television that the two sides maintain "daily contacts."
Russian President Vladimir Putin last met with Abbas a year ago on the sidelines of a regional conference in Kazakhstan. Abbas’ last visit to Moscow took place two years ago.
Russia, which has relationships with many Arab countries, with Iran, with Hamas and with Israel, condemned violence against both sides in this war and then proceeded to accuse the United States of ignoring the need for an independent Palestinian state.

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Pres Obama Condemns Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 9, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

And former U.S. President Barack Obama, too, has joined the choir of condemnations against Hamas's attack on Israel. Posting his remarks on X, as did former President Clinton, Obama wrote: "All Americans should be horrified and outraged by the brazen terrorist attacks on Israel and the slaughter of innocent civilians … "We grieve for those who died, pray for the safe return of those who’ve been held hostage, and stand squarely alongside our ally, Israel, as it dismantles Hamas. As we support Israel’s right to defend itself against terror, we must keep striving for a just and lasting peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike."


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Bill Clinton Condemns Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 8, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton has urged Israeli politicians to put aside their differences and seek unity in the face of Hamas' barbaric attack on southern Israeli communities. Using the social media platform X to convey his message, Clinton wrote; "I condemn the horrific terrorist assault carried out by Hamas in Israel, and mourn the senseless loss of life. My heart is with all those affected by the violence, including American families ... "Now is a time for the world to rally against terrorism and to support Israeli democracy. I stand with the government of Israel and all Israelis, and urge them to stand together. This is a moment to focus on purpose over politics.

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Sierra Leone To OPen embassy in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 9, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Sierra Leone's president, Julius Maada Wonie Bio, has promised that his country will open an embassy in Jerusalem. The news came, according to Israel’s foreign ministry, in the form of a phone call with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. This is another example of the countries accepting Israel and siding with Israel in the world of International diplomacy.


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Netherlands Sides w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 8, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Court in the Netherlands has ruled that both former Israeli Chief of Staff Benni Gantz and Air Force Commander Amir Eshel are immune to civil proceedings against them alleging war crimes during the 2014 Gaza war.


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Israel's Gymnastics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 7, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel's rhythmic gymnastics team won a gold medal in the all round world competition in Spain beating China and the Spanish team. It was the team’s first Gold Medal in movement. Another example of the impact Israel is making on the world. Go for the Gold, Israel.

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Russian Using Iranian Drones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 6, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Russia's military cooperation with Iran will not succumb to geopolitical pressure, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. His comments came following reports that Washington has asked Teheran to stop selling drones to Moscow.

According to a report from RIA, a Russian State News Agency, Ryabkov said: "There are no changes, and cooperation with Iran will continue … We are independent states and do not succumb to the dictates of the United States and its satellites." And citing an Iranian official and another source the Financial Times has reported that the United States is pressing Iran to stop selling the armed drones, which Russia is using in the war in Ukraine.

Russia began using the Iranian-made Shahed drones to attack deep inside Ukraine last year. The so-called kamikaze unmanned drones do not need a runway to launch and they explode on impact.


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Iran's Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 5, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is not only developing its nuclear capabilities, as we discussed in out Background briefing, but also their electronic warfare capabilities.


Iran launched exercises to test its "electronic warfare" capabilities against mock enemy drones, fighter jets and helicopters, state television reported. It said units from the military's navy, ground and air forces as well as air defences took part in the drills in the central, largely desert region of the Islamic Republic.

The exercises featured domestically manufactured radars, drones, manned and unmanned fighter jets, micro aerial vehicles and other military equipment, state TV said.

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Oil Leak in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 4 , 2023
I've Been Thinking:

An oil leak has hit a transmission pipeline linking Iran's Kharg island to the country's mainland port of Genaveh.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported the leak without specifying the magnitude of the spill. According to an official from Bushehr Province: "To prevent oil leakage on the seabed from the pipelines, diving teams have been dispatched."

The official also said that two vessels had been sent to Kharg and Genaveh's coasts to help with the clean-up. Kharg island, located 25 kilometers off the Gulf coast of Iran, hosts an oil terminal from which a large part of the country's oil exports are shipped.


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Iranian Spy at Israel's Airport
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 20, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian Jew detained at Ben Gurion Airport on suspicion of espionage has been deported from Israel.

It is Israel’s Shin Bet that revealed both the arrest and the deportation. The agency stated that the suspect, who has family ties in Israel, confessed to receiving assignments from Iranian security officials and coming to Israel for the purpose of carrying out certain tasks.

Included in his tasks were covert information gathering and photography. During his interrogation, it was revealed that this Iranian Jew had met with Iranian security personnel and was briefed by them before his arrival in Israel.


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Israel Says No Compromise w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 19, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leveled criticism at Washington amid reports on emerging understandings between the U.S. and Iran.

A statement released by the office of the prime minister reads: "Israel's position is clear: arrangements that do not dismantle Iran's nuclear infrastructure do not stop its nuclear ambitions and only provide funds that will reach Iranian-backed terror proxies."

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No Saudi Embassy in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 18, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has ruled out a diplomatic base in Jerusalem for the new Saudi envoy to the Palestinians. This new appointment comes as Washington tries to forge formal Israeli relations with Riyadh.

The Saudi Ambassador to Jordan, Nayef Al-Sudairi, expanded his credentials to include non-resident envoy to the Palestinians.

A social media post by his embassy in Amman said "consul-general in Jerusalem" was now among Al-Sudairi's duties.

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Electric Usage Record
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 17, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The all-time record for electricity consumption in Israel was broken this past Sunday at noon, and stood at 15,690 megawatts according to the Noga Electricity System Management Company. The previous record was set on July 25.

According to Shaul Goldstein, the CEO of Noga, "The demand records that have been broken several times this summer are the result of the heavy heat and its persistence, as well as the result of economic growth in recent years."

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ISIS Attacks Iranian Mosque
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 16, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

An attack on a Shi'ite Muslim shrine in Iran's central city of Shiraz killed at least four people. State media, which reported the attack, add that one person had been arrested.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack on the Shah Cheragh shrine, which state news agency IRNA said had been carried out by terrorists. Tasnim, the semi-official news agency of Iran, reports that at least seven people were wounded and shops in the area had been closed. State TV said the shrine area had been cordoned off by security forces.

Last October, Islamic State announced that it had launched an attack against this same shrine – an attack in which 15 people were killed.


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Compromise on Draft
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 15, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked the ultra-Orthodox parties to compromise on a softened military conscription plan – a plan that was less than they were promised, out of fear that the reservist crisis in the military would also permeate the regular units.

Netanyahu hoped that this new plan would not inflame the protest against the judicial overhaul. The ultra-Orthodox parties, however, firmly refused the plan.

They are insisting that the law exempting yeshiva students from military service be promoted immediately with the beginning of the winter session, as part of an outline that will be immune from judicial review.

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Heatwave
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 14, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Temperatures in Morocco have, for the first time on record, topped 50°C (120°F), that information has been obtained courtesy of the North African country’s meteorological service. Moroccans are suffering through a scorching heatwave.

According to the country’s General Directorate of Meteorology, the southern coastal city of Agadir recorded the new national record of 50.4°C.

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Travel Warning for Sweeden
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 13, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Britain warned their citizens travelling to Sweden of possible terrorist attacks by outraged Muslims following the burning of Korans by anti-Islam activists. In updated travel advice, Britain's foreign ministry said Swedish authorities had successfully disrupted some planned attacks and made arrests.

The statement read: "You should be vigilant at this time … terrorists are very likely to try and carry out attacks in Sweden." Obviously sites visited by foreigners are potential targets for terrorists. While Koran burnings are permitted in Sweden under free speech rules, Muslims view burning of their holy book as blasphemy.

The U.S. government has also warned of possible terrorist attacks in Sweden in its travel advice.

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Russian Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 11, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

A Russian government-linked hacking group took aim at dozens of global organizations with a campaign to steal login credentials by engaging users in Microsoft Teams chats pretending to be from technical support. This information was announced by Microsoft researchers and security experts.

Microsoft explains that these "highly targeted" social engineering attacks have affected "fewer than 40 unique global organizations" since late May.

By way of a blog, Microsoft researchers added that the company was investigating the breach. The Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

According to the Microsoft researchers, the plan worked this way: Hackers set up domains and accounts that looked like technical support and tried to engage teams and users in chats and get them to approve multifactor authentication (MFA) prompts.

According to a statement released by Microsoft: "Microsoft has mitigated the actor from using the domains and continues to investigate this activity and work to remediate the impact of the attack."

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Iran Saudi Oil Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 10, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait announced that Iran's foreign minister has invited his Kuwaiti counterpart to Tehran. It will not be a friendly meeting. Tensions are simmering over the offshore Durra gas field.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait claim exclusive joint rights to the field while Iran also claims a stake in the gas field. Iranian leadership is claiming that a Saudi-Kuwaiti agreement to develop the field that was signed last year, is illegal.

I expect that tensions on this issue will continue to rise.


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Iran Has New Drones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 9, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian news agencies reported that Iran has equipped its Revolutionary Guards' navy with drones and 1,000-km (600-mile) range missiles. Meanwhile, the U.S. is offering to put security guards on commercial ships going through the Gulf's Strait of Hormuz.

According to IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, "Various types of drones ... and several hundred cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 300 to 1,000 km are among the systems and equipment that were added to the capabilities of the Guards' navy".


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Saudis & Bahrainis Say Out of Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 8, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

In a statement posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, the embassy of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon called on its citizens to quickly leave Lebanese territory and to avoid approaching areas of armed conflicts.


The foreign ministry of Bahrain has also called on its citizens to leave Lebanon because of "armed conflict".


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Terror in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 7, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s political-security cabinet was convened in response to a shooting attack in Tel Aviv that took place after a Palestinian was killed by settlers in an incident in Burqa.

All this as tensions with Hezbollah on the northern border continue to build. The cabinet meeting, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was originally supposed to vote on concessions for the Palestinians – a move they considered under pressure from the United States which is trying to shore up the Palestinian Authority.

Relevant military officials were informed that, while the discussion about the Palestinians is on the agenda, after a terror attack in downtown Tel Aviv, concessions that were supposed to be voted on would, instead, come up for another discussion at some later time.

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Israeli Tourist in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 6, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli tourist filed a complaint with local police in Berlin, the capital of Germany, claiming that he was attacked after speaking Hebrew on the street. In a statement released by Israel’s Foreign Ministry: "the issue is known and is being handled by the Israeli embassy in Germany. We are in contact with the citizen and are awaiting the results of the investigation by the German police.”

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Israel Tells US - Not Your Business
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 5, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a former Ambassador to the United States, expressed critique for the Biden White House.

In an interview with Fox News Dermer said that the judicial overhaul is, quote, "an internal matter in Israel, and it is something that other democratic leaders should not interfere with." end quote.

According to Dermer, I’m quoting again, "the prime minister is acting according to the policy he established as prime minister, and I will encourage all leaders around the world to respect the decisions of other democratic countries."

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Israeli Judo
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 4, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Inbar Lanir, the world judo champion for women up to 78 kg, won a gold medal at the Hungarian Masters 2023 championship in Budapest. Fellow Israeli judoka Peter Paltchik won a silver medal at the tournament in the men’s up to 100-kilogram after losing in the final to his Uzbek rival.

Good going Israel which continues to excel in worldwide Judo competitions.


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SmugglingWeapons Across Border
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 3, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet and the IDF have been investigating a weapons smuggling incident that occurred early last week in the northern part of the Jordan Valley. The investigation centers on an unusual smuggling operation that took place at night.

Specific details of the incident, which have been described as extraordinary compared to previous smuggling attempts, are not yet released, the details are currently under a gag order. We do, however, know that the crackdown on the smugglers involved members of the Israel Border Police intelligence unit, along with IDF forces from the Jordan Valley Brigade.

In recent years, Jordan Valley crossings have become a favored route for smuggling weapons, funds and resources by criminal and terrorist organizations attempting to infiltrate Israel and the West Bank. Since its establishment, the Jordan Valley Brigade has intercepted thousands of smuggled weapons.

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ISIS Attacks Damascus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 2, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Islamic State, aka ISIS, has claimed responsibility for an attack on the Sayeda Zeinab shrine which is located south of Damascus, the capital city of Syria.

ISIS attackers killed several people and wounded several others. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement released on its Telegram channel.

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Bibi Wants Common Ground
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 1, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he hoped the Knesset's summer recess would be used as a time to find common ground on the judicial overhaul.

At the start of his weekly cabinet meeting Netanyahu said: "I hope that this time, the opposition would respond to our extended hand to reach agreement."

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A/S in France & US
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 31, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

A 13-year-old Jewish boy was attacked in France by three people because of his Jewish religious appearance. According to the police report, his attackers threatened to kill the 13-year-old and promised to take revenge on him if he filed a complaint with the police.

Theat very same day, a 65-year-old Jewish man was attacked in the United States after leaving a Chabad House in San Diego. As part of this attack, the attackers tore off the man’s tzitzit and shouted antisemitic and anti-Israel slurs. Local police have opened an investigation.

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Edelstein Will Not Rubberstamp Judicial Reform
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 30, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Likud MK Yuli Edelstein said he won’t automatically support the government’s passing of additional legislation in the judicial overhaul without Israel reaching a wide consensus for further moves.

While being interviewed by Ynet, Member of Knesset Edelstein said: “I let everyone know that upcoming legislations on the judicial reform will have to be presented to me fully before I'll decide whether to support them or not.”


Edelstein also said that any forging of relations with Saudi Arabia did not appear imminent, disputing U.S. President Joe Biden's prediction last week of a possible rapprochement between the Middle East powers. Edelstein, who is head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and is a senior member of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud Party told Israel’s Army Radio: "I think it's too early to talk about a deal being in the works."

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Israel to Bring Bnei Menashe to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 29, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Before the start of the summer recess, the government of Israel approved the establishment of an inter-ministerial committee to build a plan to aid in the absorption of the Bnei Manashe community.

The Bnei Menashe community, a community of Indian Jews living on the border of India and Burma, is caught in a civil war between the local Meitei and Kuki tribes in northeastern India.

According to Minister of Immigration and Absorption Ofir Sofer, who initiated the establishment of the committee, the program is expected to help the absorption of the Bnei Menashe and bring them to Israel in the next four months.

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Iran Trying to Hack Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 28, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet announced that it has uncovered an Iranian phishing campaign, designed to gather information about Israelis. That’s phishing with a P H not fishing with an F.

It’s a fraudulent way of obtaining information from unsuspecting targets via computer.

In this case, Iranian representatives, posing as conference organizers contacted Israeli civil servants and researchers through fake profiles on the LinkedIn network to obtain their private information. These same officials took over the Israelis' computers through fake invitations to conferences. Once the Israeli targets clicked on the invitations, the Iranians were able to have total access to their computers through malicious spyware.


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Ben Gvir on Judicial Reform
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 27, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Everyone, as you can tell,, has an opinion about judicial reform. Many are what we would call hot-headed

Everyone, as you can tell, has an opinion about judicial reform. Many are what we would call hot-headed opinions. But not all.

To give some perspective, listen to what one of the leaders of the judicial reform bill had to say after the legislation passed. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said that Israel has become "a little more democratic and Jewish. I am glad that we were able to take the first step, this is only the beginning … I say to the people of the left, to those who are protesting – you are our brothers and we love you, but our job is to govern and carry out a completely right-wing policy.

Today you understand the difference between this government and previous governments - with God's help, this is only the beginning."

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Gantz on Judicial Reform
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 26, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The chairman of the National Unity party, Benny Gantz, said in a statement to the media that: "We will do everything to turn back the wheel and fix it. It will happen … Everything approved here will be canceled and erased from the law books, sooner or later.”

Gantz also said that the "majority in the Knesset that wants agreements was defeated by extreme Knesset members who decided to change our identity, who want to take us to an abyss of hatred, to divide us, and to turn us on each other.”

He said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "preferred the political needs of Ben-Gvir and the whims of Levin over Israel’s political diplomacy and its security."

Gantz continues on and said that: “Anyone who saw the defense minister beg the justice minister to compromise understands how badly Israel now needs a responsible adult.”

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Nasrallah's Take on Judicial Reform
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 25, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has jumped on the judicial reform bandwagon.

Nasrallah addressed the judicial reform issue in Israel in a religious speech preaching: "Once it was commonly believed that Israel could not be defeated and its army is invincible, and as such, the countries in the region accepted its existence as an inevitable fact that cannot be removed."

Nasrallah continued saying that: "Today specifically is the worst day in the history of Israel, as some Israelis testify, and today sets the country on the path to disappearance."

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Biden & Bibi on Reform
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 24, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

According to a statement released by the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden will keep pressing and pressing for a broader consensus among Israeli politicians regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial overhaul.

The statement was released after Israel's parliament ratified an initial bill. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden has not given up on his goal of a broader consensus after last-gasp compromise efforts collapsed and failed to ease a constitutional crisis convulsing Israel for months.

The White House also said that the United States continues to support President Isaac Herzog's efforts to achieve a broad consensus regarding changes in the Israeli justice system.


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Twitter
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 23, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

On a completely different topic – twitter is changing its logo. No longer will it be blue and white and a dove. The web address X.com now leads to Twitter – another step on the way to changing the name of the old social network to X.

Elon Musk, the owner of the platform, announced earlier today that he intends to get rid of the Twitter brand and the blue bird associated with it. A temporary X logo has already gone live.

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Herzog on Reform
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 22, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Before the vote in the Knesset, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog submitted a mediation proposal to representatives of the government and to the opposition regarding the law to abolish the reasonableness standard and freezing the rest of the judicial overhaul legislation.

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the compromise proposal regarding the reasonableness standard was acceptable to the senior opposition, the only obstacle being the freezing of the legislation.

Likud, Netanyahu’s party, refuses to freeze the legislation for more than three months, while opposition leader Yair Lapid demands a freeze of 15 months. This is where compromise could have worked.

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Israel For Min Visits Kenya
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 18, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Nairobi at the invitation of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Kenyan Foreign Minister Monica Juma.

The visit was set against the backdrop of the semi-annual meeting of the African Union. It was a good meeting.

During the brief visit, Cohen met with his hosts and other African leaders. Kenya is one of the leading countries supporting Israel and implementing the Jewish state’s observer status in the African Union.


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Bidding on Israel Oil Wells
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 17, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Four additional energy companies have put forth bids in response to Israel's latest tender for offshore exploration blocks.

The Energy Ministry reports that bids have come from a total of nine companies, five of which are new to the Israeli market.

The ministry did not, however, name the companies that took part in the tender for exploration blocs off Israel’s Mediterranean coast.

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Gallant Says Israel Foiled Over 50 Iran Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 16, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel has foiled about 50 Iranian attacks in recent years, some at the very last moment. Gallant made this announcement while on an official visit to Azerbaijan.

He told reporters that Tehran had not abandoned its objective of entrenchment in Syria and emphasized that Iran’s activity is in full swing – not only in the region but also around the world.

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Heat wave in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 15, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

There continues to be a massive heatwave in Israel. The Noga company, the company that is responsible for managing the electric grid in Israel, said that "due to the extreme weather, electricity consumption throughout the country is abnormal and causes loads on the system."

Wanting to avoid mass panic or alarm, the company further reported that "as part of our assessments, we do not foresee any difficulty in supplying the entire amount of the public's expected consumption in the coming days.

We ask the citizens of Israel to refrain from operating non-essential 'energy-guzzling' electrical appliances such as washing machines, clothes dryers and dishwashers between the hours of 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.

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Zelensky Hits Bibi & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 14, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Israel during a meeting with NATO leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania for failing to support his country in its war against Russia.

The Ukrainian leader accused Israel of refusing to provide air defense systems and weapons to his country and og strengthening ties with Moscow instead.

Zelensky also stated that "Netanyahu has been invited to Ukraine several times but refuses to come."


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IDF Buying More F-35's
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 7, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The IDF will purchase a third squadron of F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States, the Defense Ministry announced. These jets will add to Israel’s Air Force which already includes 75 aircraft of this type in its arsenal. The cost of the purchase is estimated to reach three billion dollars. It will be paid for with military aid from the U.S.

This is one of the most important footnotes of US aid. The United States requires recipients to buy United States equipment with the aid they get from the United States.


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Noa Kirel Concert
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 6, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Tickets to Israeli singer Noa Kirel’s upcoming performance in Tel Aviv – slated to take place in September, were sold out just hours after the sale opened.

The production company announced that additional dates for a second performance are being looked into, to be set two days after the first show.

After Eurovision, Noa has become a household name in Israel. So popular, that she could easily sell out every night for a week.

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Rothman: No Ethics Violation
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 5, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Knesset's Ethics Committee determined that no sanctions would be imposed against Knesset member Simcha Rothman of the Religious Zionism party following an incident that occurred in New York a month ago when Rothman grabbed a megaphone from a protester demonstrating against Israel’s judicial overhaul.


Following the incident, Knesset member Naama Lazimi of the Labor party appealed to the Ethics Committee claiming that Rothman acted violently even though he was not under threat. The committee's decision reads: "In this case, no ethical violation was committed.

At the same time, the committee wishes to point out that holding a public office brings with it criticism and Knesset members are expected not to enter into a physical confrontation with protesters."

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Israel's Soccer Team to the Olympics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 4, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel's youth soccer team will participate in the Olympic Games in Paris in 2024.

It is the first time in 47 years - ever since 1976, that Israel’s soccer team will compete in this sought after competition. This is not the under 20 competition or the Junior Olympics - this is the real deal of Games. This is the Olympics.


The spot was secured after England's team beat Portugal 1:0 in the quarter-finals of the Euro championship games. Only three young teams automatically qualify for the Olympic Games, and England cannot get that ticket, since Great Britain participates in the Olympics and not the individual countries that make up Great Britain.

Therefore, Israel will be among the three teams to qualify.

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The Haj
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 3, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Billions of Muslims around the world are watching as about 2 million Muslim pilgrims officially made the annual Hajj pilgrimage.

After circling Islam's holiest site, the Kaaba, they converged on a vast tent camp in the nearby desert for a day and night of prayer. The Hajj pilgrimage, one of the largest religious gatherings in the world, has returned to full capacity this year for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic three years ago.

The pilgrimage is one of the five pillars of Islam. If they are physically and financially able, all Muslims are required to make the five-day Hajj at least once in their lives.

Some Muslims spend years saving up money and waiting for a permit to embark on the journey.

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Raisi Calls Putin
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 2, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Not surprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who expressed full support for Russian leadership after the Wagner Group’s move toward Moscow was aborted. Russia and Iran are linked.

Both are isolated in the international community and their mutual support is essential.

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Hajj Begins
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 27, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

About 2 million Muslim pilgrims officially began the annual Hajj pilgrimage. After circling Islam's holiest site, the Kaaba, they converged on a vast tent camp in the nearby desert for a day and night of prayer.

The Hajj pilgrimage, one of the largest religious gatherings in the world, has returned to full capacity this year for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic three years ago. The pilgrimage is one of the five pillars of Islam.

If they are physically and financially able, all Muslims are required to make the five-day Hajj at least once in their lives. Some Muslims spend years saving up money and waiting for a permit to embark on the journey.

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Russia Bombs Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 26, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

According to eyewitnesses and rescue personnel, Russian jets bombed villages and towns near the northwestern Syrian city of Idlib, killing at least nine civilians and wounding dozens.

This was a major flare-up of violence in Syria's last opposition stronghold.

According to the Western-backed White Helmets emergence response group, warplanes flying at high altitude, which tracking centers identified as Russian Sukhoi jets, dropped bombs on a vegetable market in Jisr al-Shughour while it was crowded with shoppers ahead of the Muslim feast of Eid al Adha, leaving at least nine dead and 30 injured. No immediate comment was available from Russia or its allies in the Syrian army.

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Sparks at Israel Cabinet Mtg
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 25, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Sparks were flying at Israel’s weekly cabinet meeting.

As the meeting began, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the advice of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who had encouraged people to go to West Bank outposts, by saying that, and I’m quoting: "such statements undermine law and order– they must stop immediately."

Netanyahu added that, and I’m quoting again: "we will not condone such actions and our government will act firmly against them. They harm the settlement enterprise and the vital interests of the State of Israel." unquote.

Pay close attention to these internal conflicts and stressful issues - this is how a ruling government unravels and ultimately falls.

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Mossad STops Attack in Cyprus
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 24, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s clandestine intelligence agency, The Mossad, confirmed reports that a plot to attack Israelis in Cyprus, ordered by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, was foiled.

Cypriot media had reported that their security forces had arrested members of a terror cell targeting Israelis in the city of Limassol.

A statement that the spy agency released through the office of Israel’s prime minister reads: "Israel employs numerous means in various places in order to protect Jews and Israelis and prevent Iranian terror".

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Jordan Fighting Iranian Drugs
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 23, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The media has quoted the Jordanian army as saying that it had downed a drone carrying drugs from Syria into its northern frontier region.

According to those reports, Jordan has made clear that it would not allow their border area to become a front line in an Iran-linked drug war. The Hashemite Kingdom has blamed pro-Iranian militias - militias the Jordanians claim are protected by units within the Syrian army, for smuggling drugs across its borders towards lucrative Gulf markets.

Damascus says it is doing its best to curb smuggling and continues to bust smuggler rings in the south and Syrian leadership denies complicity by Iranian-backed militias linked to its army and security forces.

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Uber Eats Leaves Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 22, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

After failing to build a sufficient client base and market share, Uber Eats has announced that it will be leaving Israel. And Israel is not alone.

Uber Eats has also announced that it will end food deliveries in Italy. According to Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber will invest only in markets in which their company can be the largest or second largest player in the market.

All this makes sense when you study the Uber business model. Uber only engages when it can really win.

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Suicide Drones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 21, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

According to a US official, Iran tested a suicide drone against a practice vessel in the Gulf. They also fired either another missile or a drone without warning ships in the area.

The one-way aka suicide drone was launched from the Jask area of Iran 8-9 miles out to sea – which is within Iran's territorial waters.

According to the official, who was citing US intelligence data, the drone was launched against a practice barge. Suicide drones are very difficult to defend against.

They are slower than a rocket or a missile, they are smaller than a rocket or a missile, they are hand-controlled and they can fly under radar.

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N Korea Gearing Up
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 24, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

North Korea claims that about eight hundred thousand of its citizens volunteered to join or reenlist in the nation's military to fight against the United States.
According to North Korea's state newspaper, the eight hundred thousand students and workers from around the country enlisted and re-enlisted in one single day.

This rather impressive claim came after North Korea launched its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in response to ongoing U.S-South Korea military drills.

North Korea fired the ICBM into the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan just hours before South Korea's president flew to Tokyo for a summit to discuss ways to counter a nuclear-armed North Korea.


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Turkey & Egpyt Mend
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 23, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Egypt and Turkey took another step towards mending relations when Ankara's top diplomat visited Cairo for the first time since ties were ruptured a decade ago and held talks with his Egyptian counterpart.

Relations between the countries were severely strained in 2013. That was when Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt's then-army chief, led the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi, an ally of Ankara. Since 2021, tension between the two countries has gradually thawed. At a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said talks with Turkey on the possibility of restoring ties to ambassadorial level would happen at "the appropriate time". He termed the talks "honest, deep and transparent".


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Putin Visits Ukraine
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 22, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Russian State Media reported that President Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Mariupol. It was the Kremlin leader's first trip to the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine's Donbas region since the start of the war.

The visit to Mariupol came on the heels of an unannounced visit Putin paid to Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of the peninsula from Ukraine. It was, also, just two days after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.


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Ramadan Fears of Violence
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 21, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Egypt hosted Israeli and Palestinian officials in the resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh in a U.S. and Jordanian backed effort to calm a surge of violence in the West Bank. The five-way meeting followed the Feb. 26th U.S.-brokered summit in Jordan, the first of its kind in years, that secured Israeli and Palestinian pledges to de-escalate.

The best of intensions aside, that summit did not end in success. It was challenged by factions on both sides and failed to halt the violence on the ground.

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Assad in UAE
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 20, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar al Assad arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for an official visit. On this trip, the Syrian president was accompanied by his wife Asma al Assad.

Long isolated by the Arab world, more and more Arab states have signaled an openness to easing the isolation of Damascus. This visit was marked with more ceremony than the trip Assad paid to the UAE last year. Last year was Assad’s first to an Arab state since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. During that war Gulf states, including the UAE, backed the rebels fighting to overthrow Assad and his regime.


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Iran & Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 19, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Saudi Arabia have begun to get cozy, diplomatically speaking. They are re-establishing ties and the Iranian government has offered a proposal to Saudi Arabia. According to the Iranian foreign minister, Iran has suggested three locations for a meeting at the foreign ministry level.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian told a news conference in Tehran that his country had agreed to the meeting. What he did not reveal, however, was the suggested locations or the time table for the meeting.


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Hamas Celebrates Terror
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 18, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian terrorist group Hamas praised a shooting attack in which an Israeli man was seriously wounded in the Palestinian West Bank town of Huwara. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem called the attack a "natural response to the crimes of the occupation against the Palestinian people”. "The resistance in the West Bank” he said “is getting stronger, more present and more rooted, and all security forces cannot stop it or bypass it".

One has to ask how it is possible to publicly support attacks against innocent civilians, in this case, an innocent family driving in their car. The father - a dual citizen of both Israel and America, and an ex-marine, managed to shoot and wound his attacker even after sustaining a shot to the head.


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Tel Aviv Stocks Drop
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 17, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange dipped after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank which sent shock waves throughout the global tech industry.

The stock exchange’s benchmark TA-125 index dropped three point thirty-one percent, while the TA-35 index of blue-chip companies lost three point one percent. Other prominent indices, such TA-Biomed, TA-RealEstate, TA-Investment Properties Abroad and TA-Banks5, fell by 4 to 5 percent each. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is the biggest lender to fail since the 2008 crisis.

The repercussions of this event are expected to have a substantial impact on tech companies and technologies worldwide, including those based in Israel.

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Russians Taking Massives Losses
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 16, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Russian forces suffered more than eleven hundred dead in less than a week of battles near the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the focal point of fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The report comes to us via the nightly video address of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who said: "In less than a week, starting from 6th March, we managed to kill more than eleven hundred enemy soldiers in the Bakhmut sector alone, Russia's irreversible loss, right there, near Bakhmut.”

Zelenskyy also reported that Russian forces had also sustained fifteen hundred "sanitary losses" – those are soldiers wounded badly enough to keep them out of further action. Additionally, dozens of pieces of enemy equipment were destroyed as were more than 10 Russian ammunition depots.

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Israel in Earthquake Drill
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 15, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli forces will hold an international earthquake exercise from March 12th to the 25th. The exercise will be led by the Defense Ministry’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA).

The announcement came from the ministry’s spokesperson. The move comes nearly a month after the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria that claimed the lives of over forty-six thousand people. The exercise will be “focused on receiving international aid in the case of an earthquake together with Israeli emergency and rescue agencies.” It will simulate all necessary emergency procedures including the initial decision to request international assistance, integrating foreign rescue teams, distributing aid to various locations within the country, and the receival process of international aid.

Hopefully, this will remain an exercise and never need to be implemented.


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NY State:Take Polio Shot Before Israel Visit
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 14, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

New York State published an official announcement in which it recommended that all citizens planning to fly to Israel get the Polio vaccine, due to the recent outbreak in Israel.

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Iran to Buy Russia Fighter Jets
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 13, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian state media reported that Tehran finalized a deal to buy Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia, as defense cooperation between the two countries deepens. This is very important for IranTheThis is very important for Iran which is struggling under hard hitting sanctions imposed on them by the West.

The Iranian air force of sanctions-hit Iran has an aging fleet of aircraft and has struggled to obtain spare parts to keep its warplanes functional. In a statement to the United Nations, the Islamic Republic said it began approaching “countries to buy fighter jets” to replenish its fleet in the wake of the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988.

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Saudis & Iran New Deal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 12, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies. This decision follows seven years of tensions. The major diplomatic breakthrough, which was negotiated with China, lowers the chance of armed conflict between the Mideast rivals - both directly and in proxy conflicts around the region.

While Saudi Arabia kept Washington informed of its talks with Iran to restore diplomatic relations, according to John Kirby, the White House Spokesman, the United States was not directly involved. Kirby explained that the road map that was announced appeared to be the result of several rounds of talks, including some held in Baghdad and Oman and that the United States has supported that process as promoting an end to the war in Yemen and to what he termed Iranian aggression. He said: "The Saudis did keep us informed about these talks that they were having, just as we keep them informed on our engagements, but we weren't directly involved."


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Hezbollah Praises Iran Saudi Nexus
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 11, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has hailed the resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Normalization, he said, was a "good development" that could "help resolve crises" in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and the wider region. In a televised address, Nasrallah said: "It's a good thing” and then he added the caveat, “we are convinced that this will not be at our expense."

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PM's Flight to Italy
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 10, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

El Al, Israel's flagship airliner, was having trouble manning a flight to take Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara to Italy. And so, the office of the prime minister reported that they were opening a tender to locate a pilot able to fly the 777 plane.

Since his government began its push to legislate a judicial overhaul, a move that has enraged countless many in the Israeli public, El Al pilots and cabin crew have been avoiding flights with the first couple of Israel.

In an official statement El Al explained – or perhaps explained away the difficulty saying that it was the result of a limited number of pilots attached to the 777 fleets. The Netanyahu's were travelling to Italy to meet with Italian far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. In the end, El AL found a crew.


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Israel & UAE Sign Treade Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Thurday March 9, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and United Arab Emirates Ambassador to Israel Muhammad Mahmoud Al Khaja signed a customs valuation agreement.

The agreement will put into effect the free trade agreement they already signed in May of 2022. This agreement is expected to lower or remove customs on 96% of products imported and exported between the countries.

According to Foreign Minister Cohen: “The agreement will strengthen Israel’s economy.”

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Iran Navy in Brazil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 8, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has criticized Brazil for their decision granting berth to two Iranian warships.

Brazil came to their decision despite pressure by the United States not to grant berth to the warships. Israel also urged Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government to send the ships, which are docked in Rio de Janeiro, away.

Reuters has reported that, back in January, Brazil declined to admit the Iranian ships as a gesture from Lula to Washington as he flew to DC to meet U.S. President Joe Biden.

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More US Sanctions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 7, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The United States imposed new sanctions on Iranian or Iran-linked shipping and petrochemical companies, including two shipping firms based in China. These sanctions can be viewed on the US Treasury Department's website. According to the website, the sanctions also targeted 20 shipping vessels linked to firms in China, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates.

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Hungary to Open Emb in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 6, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Hungary is set to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem. The move, which will take place next month, is an act of support by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to his counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu.

This dramatic move will make Hungary the first member state of the European Union to open an embassy in Jerusalem, which Israel claims as its capital, but which is not recognized by most countries because they question Jerusalem’s status under international law.


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US General Milley in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 5, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel hosted top U.S. military officer, Army General Mark Milley. Milley came to Israel for a series of discussions including the need for cooperation on denying Iran nuclear weaponry. Milley’s trip was unannounced. America’s top military officer arrived in Israel ahead of a trip to Israel by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Austin’s trip also includes neighboring countries Egypt and Jordan – both U.S.-aligned Arab states that have influence on Israeli-Palestinian affairs.
According to sources, the real purpose behind Milley’s trip was to convey US insistence that Israel not act unilaterally against Iran.


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IAEA Hopeful in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sauturday March 4, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has indicated that talks were ongoing with Iran on two sets of important matters including the science sector, and there there was "great expectation" about the process.

Rafael Grossi began a series of meetings in Tehran by saying that diplomats said they were pushing Iran to cooperate with an IAEA investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites that had been enriched close to nuclear-weapons grade.

IN Tehran Grossi spoke to reporters and told them: "Globally speaking, there are two sets of matters that are important. Clearly, there is a great expectation about our joint work in order to move forward in the issues that Iran and the agency are working on, to clarify and to bring credible assurances about the nuclear program in Iran".

We are being told that Iran responded very positively to the meetings and have given sweeping assurances to the UN nuclear watchdog that it will finally assist a long-stalled investigation into uranium particles found at undeclared sites and even re-install removed monitoring equipment.

The International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran issued a joint statement just two days before a quarterly meeting of the agency's 35-nation Board of Governors.


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NYC Man Convicted of Hate Against Jews
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 3, 2023
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A man in NYC was sentenced to 18 months in prison after pleading guilty to a federal hate crime conspiracy charge for a series of antisemitic assaults her perpetrated in New York City. Saadah Masoud, 29, of Staten Island, was arrested in June after authorities said that in April he punched and dragged a counter-protester, who was draped in an Israeli flag, at a pro-Palestinian demonstration.

Prosecutors said that Masoud also admitted to attacking another person wearing a Star of David necklace in May of 2021 and another man wearing a yarmulke, a Jewish skullcap, a month later.


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Geramn Def Min Says Watch China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 2, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reacted with skepticism to a Chinese ceasefire proposal for the war in Ukraine.

During an interview with German public broadcast Deutschlandfunk, the defense minister said: "When I hear reports - and I don't know whether they are true - according to which China may be planning to supply kamikaze drones to Russia while at the same time presenting a peace plan, then I suggest we judge China by its actions and not its words.”


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Social Workers Strike
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 1, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Union of Social Workers announced that, because the Finance Ministry has not kept its commitment to devote NIS 200 million to reforming social workers' salaries, they will hold demonstrations throughout the country. If their demands are still not met, the demonstrations will be followed by a general strike.

The Chairman of the Union of Social Workers, Attorney Inbal Harmoni, said in a statement: "The Finance Ministry and the entire government of Israel [negated] the salary increase that was signed and agreed upon with us.

"In the coming days, we will disrupt all social services throughout the country until a complete shutdown [is achieved] and [stage] demonstrations throughout the country."

Social workers are an integral part of Israeli society. When they strike, countless Israelis suffer.

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Zelensky Fires General
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 28, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired a senior military commander, a man who helped lead Ukraine’s fight against Russian troops in the country's embattled east. But the Ukrainian president gave no reason for his decision.
In a one-line decree, Zelensky announced the dismissal of Eduard Moskalyov as commander of the joint forces of Ukraine, which are engaged in battles in the Donbas region.

Zelensky mentioned Moskalyov’s firing in his daily address when listing the military commanders he had spoken to. Moskalyov, who’s name was glaringly missing from the list of military commanders, had been in the post since March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.


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CIA Warns Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 27, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

CIA Director William Burns said, while being interviewed by CBS TV, that Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity has been steadily rising and will soon be able to reach a level of 90%.

According to the CIA director, “They’ve advanced very far to the point that it would only be a matter of weeks before they could enrich to 90% if they chose to cross that line, and also in terms of their missile systems, their ability to deliver a nuclear weapon once they develop it, has also been advancing as well.” This is not good news.

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El Al Flies Over Oman
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 26, 2023
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El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. announced that it has become the first Israeli national carrier to use a new corridor over Saudi Arabia and Oman. This flight path was made possible after Muscat joined Riyadh in allowing Israeli civilian overflights. As a result, when El Al Flight 083, departs Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport in the evening, it will take only around eight hours to reach Bangkok - two and a half hours less than previous trips.

El Al CEO Dina Ben Tal Ganancia spoke for the entire company when she said: "El Al is proud to be the first Israeli airline to fly over the skies of Saudi Arabia and Oman and take an active part in the State of Israel's history.”


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Death Penalty for Terror
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 25, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Ministerial Committee on Legislation voted to give government backing to a bill that institutes the death penalty for terrorists. Convened on the day during which another deadly attack on Israelis had taken place, the Ministers decided that the State Security Cabinet will meet to discuss the text of the bill before it goes up for a Knesset vote.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the group and said: "we will act to deter terrorists and maintain security. We will strike terrorism with force." Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir added: "On this difficult day when two Israeli citizens were murdered, there is nothing more symbolic than passing the bill. It is a moral and fair bill."

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Meeting in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 24, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

During that meeting, which brought together Israeli and Palestinian security chiefs for the first time in many years, Jordan's King Abdullah told U.S. President Joe Biden's top Middle East advisor that efforts should be intensified to bring "calm and reduce escalation" in Palestinian territories. Brett McGurk attended the meeting in the Red Sea port of Aqaba hosted by Jordan.

This meeting, which was attended by representatives of key parties in the region, was a very important step towards helping to reduce tensions between Israelis and Palestinians.

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Israel & PA Meet
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 23, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Officials from Israel, Jordan, Egypt the Palestinian Authority and the U.S. concluded their meeting in Jordan. As we mentioned in one of our columns, they had convened to reduce violence in the West Bank ahead of the Muslim month of Ramadan.

The result of the meeting was that the delegates decided to form a security commission to discuss the renewal of coordination between Israel and the PA on security.

They also agreed to meet once more before Ramadan and form a joint civil commission to discuss confidence-building measures. Israel, for her part, made it clear that they have no intention of suspending the government's decision to legalize 9 outposts and construct 9,500 housing units in the West Bank.

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Woman Undresses At Western Wall
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 22, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem police detained a 35-year-old woman who took off her clothes and roamed around the Western Wall plaza wearing nothing but her underwear.

The woman took disrobed as a protest against a bill proposal floated last week by the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which would impose a penalty of six months in prison and a fine on anyone who visits the Western Wall in "inappropriate attire” or behaves in a disrespectful way.

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Earthquake Damage
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 21, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

More than 45,000 people have been killed in the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, and the toll is expected to soar with some 264,000 apartments in Turkey destroyed and many still missing in the country's worst modern disaster.

Within three days the death toll rose from 33,000 to 45,000. The death toll in Turkey stands at 39,672, while neighboring Syria has reported more than 5,800 deaths. Syria's toll has not changed for days. Mosques around the world on Friday performed absentee funeral prayers for the dead in Turkey and Syria, many of whom could not receive full burial rites given the enormity of the disaster. The missing will soon be assumed dead. The numbers will be shocking.

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Israel's Red South
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 20, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

No less than 150,000 Israelis arrived over the weekend for the annual Darom Adom (Red South) festival. The festival takes place throughout February and offers a wide variety of activities for the whole family, some free of charge. The greatest attraction is the flowers.

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Israel Removed From UN Event
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 19, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

A senior Israeli diplomat on Saturday was removed from the African Union's annual summit in Ethiopia, as a dispute over Israel's accreditation to the bloc escalated.

Images posted online showed African Union security personnel confronting the diplomat during the opening ceremony of the summit, before she left the auditorium. "Israel looks harshly upon the incident in which the deputy director for Africa, Ambassador Sharon Bar-Li, was removed from the African Union hall despite her status as an accredited observer with entrance badges," the foreign ministry said.

The African Union said that only the Israeli ambassador to Ethiopia was credential to attend the event.

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N Korea Warns West
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 18, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

North Korea announced that it had fired a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a "sudden launching drill" that confirmed its readiness for "mobile and mighty counterattack" against hostile forces. North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile into the sea off Japan's west coast after warning of a strong response to upcoming military drills by South Korea and the United States.

North Korea is flexing it muscles and announcing to everyone that they are prepared to strike back if necessary

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Iran Attacks Israeli Ship
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 17, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran was responsible for a reported attack on an Israeli owned oil tanker last week. An attack on the Liberian-flagged Campo Square was confirmed by the ship's captain, who said it was lightly damaged by an airborne object on Feb. 10 while sailing through the Arabian Sea.

Shipping databases linked the tanker to Zodiac Maritime, which is controlled by Israeli shipping magnate Eyal Ofer. "Last week Iran again attacked an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf and harmed the international freedom of navigation," Netanyahu said at a weekly cabinet meeting.

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Iran Enriching to 84%
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 16, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Bloomberg is reporting that International atomic monitors in Iran detected uranium enriched to levels just below that needed for a nuclear weapon. Bloomberg cited two senior diplomats who confirmed that Iran is enriching uranium levels far higher than permitted.

According to the report, the International Atomic Energy Agency is trying to clarify how Iran accumulated uranium enriched to 84% purity — the highest level found by inspectors in the country to date, and a concentration just 6% below what’s needed for a sophisticated nuclear weapon. Iran had previously told the IAEA that its centrifuges were configured to enrich uranium to a 60% level of purity.

This is deeply problematic!


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Israel Helps Turkey and Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 8, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is prepared to extend its aid to Turkey and to Syrian, to the victims of the recent earthquake. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a rare overture to the enemy Arab state. "I ordered to send, at the request of the Turkish government, rescue teams and medical aid," Netanyahu announced this at a ceremony in a hospital near Tel Aviv. "Since a request was also received to do this for many victims of the earthquake in Syria, I instructed to do this as well," he said. Netanyahu did not elaborate on who had made the request regarding Syria.

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Israeli Aid to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 7, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The huge earthquake has rocked the Middle East. Thousands have died and many more are not yet found.

Israel has confirmed that it had received a Syrian request thru a third party for assistance with earthquake relief. Israel said that it was prepared to help.
This would be rare example of cooperation between the enemy neighbors. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech he had ordered Israeli aid for Turkey which was the epicenter of the earthquake.

Netanyahu said: "since a request was also received to do this for many victims of the earthquake in Syria, I instructed to do this as well". Asked who had made the request regarding helping Syria an Israeli official said: "The Syrians". Asked if this referred to opposition members or to President Bashar al-Assad's government, the official said only: "Syria.”

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Turkey Arrests ISIS Cell
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 6, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The Turkish intelligence agency arrested a network of 15 Islamic State operatives, who planned to carry out a terrorist attack against the consulates of Sweden and Holland in Istanbul, in response to the protests in which burned Qurans.
The report from the Hürriyet news agency also said that the operatives planned on carrying out attacks in synagogues and churches in Istanbul.

After interrogating the terrorists Turkey said that they are certain that the terrorists were not connected to a larger cell operating in Turkey.


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Israel Judo Champs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 5, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Judo athletes are once again dominating international competitions.

Israeli judoka Gili Sharir won the under-63 kg gold medal at the recent Paris Grand Slam judo tournament. She won a convincing victory after dominating Japanese judoka Nami Nabekura in the final. “I am really happy to have been able to win my first Grand Slam gold medal after a very long and difficult day. A big thank you to my amazing family and good luck to all the competitors tomorrow,” said the champion after her victory.

Another Israeli competitor, Gefen Primo, won bronze in the under-52 kg category after beating Brazil’s Larissa Pimenta.

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Shevah Weiss Dies
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 4, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Shevah Weiss, the former Speaker of the Knesset, passed away at age 87. Weiss was a member of the Labor party, and an MK for 18 years. Weiss was a holocaust survivor form Poland. He also served as Israel’s ambassador to Poland. November 4, 1995, Weiss was on the stage at the peace rally in Tel Aviv next to Shimon Peres when Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated.

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Iran Pardons Protesters
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 3, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pardoned "tens of thousands" of prisoners, almost all were arrested in recent anti-government protests over security-related charges, state media reported. "Prisoners not facing charges of spying for foreign agencies, having direct contact with foreign agents, committing intentional murder and injury, committing destruction and arson of state property, or not having a private plaintiff in their case will be pardoned," state media said.

According to the HRANA activist news agency, about 20,000 people have been arrested over anti-government protests sparked by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish Iranian woman who died in Iranian police custody, in September.

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Israel & Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 2, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that Israel and Sudan will sign a peace deal this year. Cohen returned from a brief visit to the African country and met with its leadership. Sudan joined the Abraham Accords in 2021 but did not normalize relations with Israel due to the political situation there.

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US Israel Train Together
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 1, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

IDF and U.S. forces have concluded a joint drill. The drill was billed as their largest joint drill to date. Over 6,500 U.S. soldiers and commanders were in participation. The drill also included training and exercises between Israeli and U.S. air-forces, ground forces and navies.

Sources from both the United States and israel confirmed that this joint drill was a huge success.

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Kid in A Minefield
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 31, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

A 17-year-old Israeli was rescued after discovering himself in the middle of a minefield in the Golan Heights. The teenager was guided out of the 55 year old minefield with help from the IDF Combat Engineering Corps. The minefield, which was in an area that had been the site of wars between Israel and Syria, was strewn with deadly anti-personnel landmines decades after the hostilities ended.

Areas such as this one are all clearly marked - but every year people still wander into them. Inevitably grazing animals get blown up when they, too, wander in.

This incident had a happy ending.


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US Treasury Sanctions Money Changer
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 30, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

The U.S. Treasury announced that it was placing sanctions on Lebanese money exchanger Hassan Moukalled and on his because of financial ties to Hezbollah, which is on the US Treasury’s terror list. In other words, they are blackballed.

Moukalled was described as a financial adviser to Iranian-backed Hezbollah, who carried out financial transactions on the behalf of the terrorist organization that earned him hundreds of thousands of dollars. Obviously, Iran is also on the US Treasury’s terror list. Moukalled was dealing with two parties on the US terror list, on both sides of his money exchange.

The US Treasury believes in squeezing terrorist money sources.

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A/S on Campus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 1, 2023
I've Been Thinking:

We all know that there has been an uptick of anti-Jewish acts on college campuses across America – not just at Stanford.

The Anti-Defamation League published a report citing 359 anti-Israel or antisemitic incidents that occurred on US campuses during this past academic year 2021-2022.

359 is a big number.

According to the report, the incidents range from accusing Israel of committing genocide to banning students from organizations because they support Israel and Zionism.

More – much more, needs to be done in order to force campus administrations to crack down on this plague that is affecting student life across the country.  

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Judo Israeli Style
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli national judo team won the bronze medal at the World Judo Championship. The medal was won in the mixed team event.

The Israeli team faced Judokas from Uzbekistan, Korea and Holland during the final round of the event.

Judo has become the sport that Israel has most shined in, displaying prowess during the Olympics and during international competitions.

The Israeli public has begun to learn more about the sport in order to appropriately cheer on their teams during international competition.

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Stanford Says Sorry
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Stanford University has apologized for their anti-Jewish policies.

According to a report conducted and then made public by a university task force, this prestigious university, located in Northern California, intentionally excluded Jewish students for years.

The university's president, Marc Tessier-Lavigne, issued an extensive apology in which wrote: "This ugly component of Stanford's history, confirmed by this new report, is saddening and deeply troubling."

The task force uncovered a memo from 1953 that reflecting concerns about the number of Jewish students at the university. According to the memo, the university instituted a policy that would limit recruitment and admissions from two particular schools in the Los Angeles area whose student populations were "from 95 to 98% Jewish.”

Stanford did not track the number of Jewish students specifically, but enrollment from these schools dropped precipitously.  And, according to the task force report, "The impact was immediate and striking."

The university has denied allegations of anti-Jewish bias for decades.

Tessier-Lavigne pledged that Stanford would undertake a comprehensive examination of campus life for current Jewish students and embrace "religious and cultural needs."

Representatives from Stanford's Jewish Student Association applauded the president’s statement but emphasized the need for action – not just words. 

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Bridge Named for Jew
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A Massachusetts town has renamed a bridge in honor of a pioneering, but little-known Jewish woman writer, who lived there during the 19th century.

Cora Wilburn, whose autobiographical novel entitled “Cosella Wayne” is most likely the first novel published in English by a Jewish woman in America, settled in Duxbury, south of Boston, as an adult and lived there until her death at the age of 82 in the year 1906.

Now, 116 years later, the town of Duxbury has dedicated the Cora Wilburn Bridge in her honor.  They have renamed “Bridge D-14-009(49Q)” in tribute to this trailblazing Jewish woman whose novel and widely published poetry and essays left a mark in religious circles across the country”.

The autobiography “Cosella Wayne” was republished recently alongside a scholarly essay that was written about her by Jonathan Sarna. 

Sarna, a professor of American Jewish history at Brandeis University, was invited to attend the dedication ceremony of the bridge. He remarked that a bridge was a fitting tribute to a woman who was known for bridging relationships with people different from herself.

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Israel Helping Ukraine
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The New York Times reported that Israel is providing Ukraine with basic intelligence about the Iranian drones which Russia has begun to use against Ukraine.  Moscow has been deploying Iranian-made Shahid 136 suicide drones in their move to control Ukraine.

A Ukrainian source told the newspaper that Israel was sharing the intelligence.  The official also said that a private Israeli firm was also giving Ukraine satellite imagery of Russian troop positions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia used the drones during a recent bombing of civilian targets in major cities. The United Nations estimated that the simultaneous aerial attacks left at least 11 civilians dead and more than 100 wounded.

According to the president, Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia ordered 2,400 Shahed 136 drones from Iran.

Despite the help that Jerusalem is providing the Ukrainians – humanitarian aid and military aid - Ukraine continues to be critical of the Jewish state for not providing more "defensive weapons and equipment," a point repeatedly made by Ukraine's ambassador to Israel as well as by President Zelensky.

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Adderall Shortage
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has announced that there is a shortage of the medication Adderall. 

Adderall is used as a treatment for ADHD, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The shortage is due to intermittent manufacturing delays at Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd worldwide.

U.S. listed shares of Teva were down as a result of the news.

Adderall is an FDA-approved prescription drug.  It is used by 5%-10% of all youth in the United States and many athletes use it for a competitive edge.  Many students use it to help them take tests and sharpen their attention.

This is a serious supply chain crisis.

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US Iran Tensions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The United States has officially let it be known that reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is "not our focus right now".   

Asked if the United States was interested in pursuing talks to revive the pact under which Iran curbed its nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief, State Department spokesman Ned Price replied:

"It is very clear and the Iranians have made very clear that this is not a deal that they have been prepared to make. The deal certainly does not appear imminent".

This is good news and a relief to level-headed people like myself who have been worried that the United States was pushing Iran into a nuclear deal.

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Russian Billionaire Drops Russia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli-Russian billionaire Yuri Milner, who left Russia in 2014, has announced that he has officially renounced his Russian citizenship.

Milner is the founder of internet investment firm DST Global.  He made his fortune by betting on Chinese tech companies like e-commerce platforms Alibaba and JD.com (9618.HK).

In a tweet, Milner wrote: "My family and I left Russia for good in 2014, after the Russian annexation of Crimea. And this summer, we officially completed the process of renouncing our Russian citizenship."

Yuri Milner is an Israeli and he is counted amongst Israel’s billionaires.  But now that he is persona non grata in Russia, Milner can no longer help his friends still living in Russia with investments.

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German Leader Celebrates Holocaust
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

In Germany, a politician named Holger Winterstein, from the far-right Alternative for Germany Party, was filmed dancing on top of a Holocaust memorial in Berlin.  Winterstein was dancing on the stones that were erected as symbolic graves stones. 

The story was reported and the film was broadcast on multiple media sources.

The incident drew outrage from multiple sources.

Israel's ambassador to Gemran, Ron Prosor, decried the incident and said to Winterstein: "enjoy your shameful minute of fame because your name will soon be forgotten. The sanctified souls commemorated at the memorial will never be forgotten."

Prosor said that the German politician brought "shame upon himself and his party."

Winterstein's party will take action against him for his behavior, the report said.

It was an act of total disregard and immaturity.

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Ethiopians To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has long wanted to bring the remaining Ethiopian Jews to safety in Israel. 

Recently, reports have been published indicating that Israel has begun that process and that flights are bring thousands of the remaining Ethiopian Jews to the Jewish homeland.

Each of the newly-arriving Ethiopians has family already living in Israel.

The timing of these trips is crucial.  The move comes as war escalates, once again, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.

This is an important step in saving the lives of thousands of Ethiopian Jewry and in reuniting families that have been separated.

Bruchim HaBaim, welcome, to these new Israelis.

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Mass Grave in Libya
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Libya's Missing Persons Authority announced that they have discovered 42 bodies buried in a mass grave in the central coastal city of Sirte.

This city was a former stronghold of the ousted ISIS, the Islamic State group.

In a statement, the authority's spokesperson said the 42 bodies had been exhumed from a school site in the city following a "tip" from an investigation conducted with captured ISIS members.

Sirte is the birthplace of former longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi.  The city fell under ISIS, Islamic State, control between 2015 and 2016.

In classis ISIS style, they chose to control the city of Sirte in order to profit from the chaos that engulfed the oil-rich nation of Libya following the chaos of their 2011 revolution.

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Spy Charges Dropped
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem District Court recently ruled that a young Iranian woman was innocent of any intent to harm Israeli security.  The Iranian woman and three Israelis women of Iranian decent were charged with contact with a Foreign Agent.

The women were approached on social media by a man claiming to be a member of the Iranian Jewish community.  He was, in fact, an agent of Iranian intelligence.

This is an important case.  It highlights the difference between Israeli and other countries regarding security.

These women were not complicit in any wrongdoing.  They were duped.  They had no intent to harm Israel and they provided no real information to the Iranian agent.

They had no information or intel to share. 

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Soccer is Dangerous
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 30, 2022 em
I've Been Thinking:

As popular as it is, soccer can be a very dangerous sport. 

In the past there have been horrific stories of mass deaths because of stampedes at soccer stadiums. And it happened again.

In Indonesia panic and a chaos ensued as people rushed for the exits after police fired tear gas during an Indonesian soccer game.  The police were trying to control the unruly crowd, spurred on by the fans of the defeated team, but their efforts backfired.

At least 174 people died, most of whom were trampled upon or suffocated, making it one of the deadliest sports events in the world.

Attention immediately focused on the police’s use of tear gas, which is banned at soccer stadiums by FIFA – the international football (or soccer) federation. The president of the world soccer body called the deaths at the stadium "a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension."

Joko Widodo, president of the Republic of Indonesia, ordered an investigation of security procedures.

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Kurds in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

I have been writing about and explaining growing internal tensions in Iran.

The Kurdish underground is very tight and well organized.  And they are attacking Iranian targets.

Iranian state-linked media has reported that up to 19 people, including a commander in the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, were killed in an attack by armed separatists on a police base in the eastern city of Zahedan.

The reports did not explain if the attack was conducted by the Kurdish underground or if they were part of the anti-government protests sparked after the death of a woman who was not properly wearing her hijab, her head covering.

This deadly attack took place early in the day as crowds gathered at a nearby mosque for Friday prayers.

Iran claims to have arrested nine foreigners linked to the anti-government protests, which authorities have blamed on hostile foreign entities, without providing evidence.

The state-run IRNA news agency cited witnesses as saying that 19 people were killed and 15 were wounded, but there was no official confirmation.

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US Clamps down on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The United States continues to clamp down on Iran.  The US is now imposing sanctions on companies that are helping Iran.

The US imposed sanctions on several Chinese and Indian companies accused of involvement in Iran's petrochemical and petroleum trade.  By way of these sanctions, the United States is putting pressure on Tehran as it seeks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

In a statement released by his office, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained that Washington designated two China-based companies, Zhonggu Storage and Transportation Co Ltd and WS Shipping Co Ltd, for their roles in a scheme that attempts to thwart sanction evasion on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products.

Blinken accused Zhonggu Storage and Transportation Co Ltd of operating a commercial crude oil storage facility for Iranian petroleum.  He accused WS Shipping Co Ltd of being a ship manager for a vessel that has transported Iranian petroleum products.

We will see what happens next.

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Elections in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Lebanese parliament failed to elect a new head of state.  Their objective was to replace President Michel Aoun whose term of office ends on Oct. 31.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told the people of Lebanon that, when a consensus emerges on a candidate, he will call for another Parliamentary session.

Unless consensus emerges on a candidate, the presidency looks set to fall vacant when Aoun's term ends.  The timing couldn’t be worse as Lebanon is in the throes of a deep financial crisis.

This is bad news for Lebanon. They need a stable and honest government.

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Israel & Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

In another incident of an attempt to enter Israel, IDF forces arrested two Lebanese suspects who illegally crossed into Israel via the Israel/Lebanon border.  The two were taken for questioning.

The IDF reported that it will “continue to act in order to prevent any attempt to illegally cross the border and harm Israel’s sovereignty”.

Most cross-border incidents form Lebanon into Israel involve smuggling.  Most of the contraband that is smuggled is drug related.   It involves criminal elements on both sides of the border.

The real security risk is that the smugglers are often paying off and bribing people on the ground.

Terrorists and drug smugglers alike will use any method they can to ply their nefarious trades.

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Elections
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 26, 2022
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As Israel’s election campaign heats up, Israeli President Isaac Herzog has spoken out forcefully against the rise of violence that surrounds the campaigns.

Speaking at the traditional High Holiday services held at Jerusalem’s President’s Synagogue, President Herzog said: “Violence is on the rise. Verbal violence—accusations of treason, comparisons to the Nazis, threats and curses—in the public sphere and on social media. Verbal violence never remains that way. Concerningly, we see insults turning into physical violence. Into curled fists, into assaults, into bloodshed."

“One cannot avoid the disturbing thought: what’s next? Knives? Gunfire? Fatalities, God forbid? After all, we have already been through this story before, and this time—we must not hold back or bite our tongues. I forcefully condemn these violent phenomena. And I say to everyone, before your next nasty post, before your next hate-filled tweet or reply, before fighting, attacking, and hitting—stop! Don’t come along later seeking forgiveness or apologizing—stop now! Before it’s too late.”

The political rhetoric has gotten very ugly and violence has erupted.  It is time to tamp that down.

Kudos to President Herzog for stepping up and addressing the issue.

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Labor is Dead in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 25, 2022
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On October 29th Israel’s Labor Party is planning to hold a rally in memory of former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin.  That date, October 29th, is only three days prior Israel’s elections.

The rally will take place in Jerusalem's Zion Square.

The Labor Party announced that leading public figures would attend and deliver speeches at the event.

Israel’s Labor party was once the leading political force in the country.  Until he was brutally assassinated on November 4, 1995, Yitzhak Rabin was the party’s leader.

The assassination of the prime minister was a watershed event for Israel and for Israeli politics.  Much has changed since 1995.  The Labor Party is hoping that this memorial will inject new life into a party that, today, is barely breathing.

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Fires in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 24, 2022
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Fires have been raging in Israel.  The destruction is horrific.

Over 19 firefighting teams from the Israeli National Fire and Rescue Authority and eight firefighting planes, which also included first responders from JNF, the Jewish National Fund, battled a large fire spreading in northern Israel.

These fires endanger Israel’s forests and wildlife. 

They also endanger communities and crops. Because of the wind and the dry climate, fires often move very quickly.  Within a few short minutes a raging fire will destroy what it took years to build.

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Riots in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian riot police deployed in Tehran's main squares.  Their mission was to confront people chanting "death to the dictator" as part of nationwide protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian woman who died while in police custody. 

Across Iran pressure has been increasing on authorities.  There has been a groundswell of pressure and not just in Iran. Internationally, more and more attention is being given to Amini’s death while in custody.

Amini, 22 years old, from the northwestern Kurdish city of Saqez, was arrested on Sept. 13th in Tehran for "unsuitable attire".  The arrest was made by Iran’s morality police who enforce the Islamic Republic's strict dress code.

The young woman died three days later, in a hospital, after falling into a coma.  Her death sparked the first wave of protests and brought about a show of opposition against the government.

These were the first set of street protests in Iran since police brutally crushed protests against a rise in gas prices in 2019.

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Gazans Cross To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

According to the IDF spokesperson, Israeli troops stopped a Gaza resident, a Palestinian, who was attempting to cross into Israel by way of the Mediterranean Sea.

The Palestinian was questioned by security forces.

There are many reasons for Gazans to secretly cross into Israel.  The most obvious is, of course, terror.  There are, however, a growing number who cross into Israel to find work.

It is normally very easy for the security forces to determine the reasons behind the attempts.  One is the tools the person brought with them through the crossing.  Next is that person’s history and record.

The situation in Gaza is harsh and getting worse.  Israel is an attractive lure for many people.

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Iran's Guards Shoot Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched missile and drone attacks on "terrorists" in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Iranian State News Agency, INRA, a very reliable source in these matters, has been reporting on Kurdish tensions and Iranian government responses.

Iran blamed armed Iranian Kurdish dissidents for ongoing attacks and unrest in the northwest section of Iran.  That is the area where most of Iran's Kurds live. There are up to 10 million Kurds living in Iran.

The essential point to note is that tension between the Iranian government and the Kurds has been going on for decades.  What we are now witnessing is just one of many very public internal disputes plaguing Iran.

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Israel & Alzheimers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 20, 2022
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A group of Israeli and American researchers have developed a method to detect Alzheimer's disease.  To do so, they examine their patient’s eyes.   

The researchers have proved that the beta-amyloid plaques and abnormal proteins in the retina of the eye can determine Alzheimer’s.

Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurological disorder.  It causes brain shrinkage and brain cell death. It is the most common cause of dementia.

The research was published in the latest issue of the Israel Medical Association's Hebrew-language journal Harefuah.

Research was conducted by Dr. Keren Wood of the Samson Assuta Ashdod Hospital in Ashdod and Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. along with Idit Maharshak of Wolfson Medical Center in Holon and Sackler Medical School at Tel Aviv University, and with Yosef Koronyo and Maya Koranyo-Hamaoui from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, California.

The researchers explain that retinal photoreceptors absorb light and transfer data to the retinal ganglion cell layer. And because the retina is connected to the brain, it appears that changes in this part of the eye reflect disease processes in the brain - including the development of Alzheimer's disease.

During autopsies, beta-amyloid plaques have been found in the retinas of people who died of Alzheimer's disease.

During the study, 10 patients with Alzheimer's disease and six healthy control patients were asked to swallow turmeric, a deep yellow spice that attaches to beta-amyloid plaques. A few days later, their retinas were examined.

The yellow was found to stick to the retinal cells of patients with Alzheimer's disease and not those of healthy patients.

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Israel COVID Boosters
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 19, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is now offering the updated COVID-19 booster shots designed by Pfizer to combat the Omicron BA.4/5 and all the subvariants.  The booster be in full distribution mode by the end of September.

Israel's coronavirus czar Salman Zarka urged those Israelis in risk groups to take the booster along with a flu shot.  Additionally, any Israeli 12 years old or older who had their last COVID shot or who had COVID-19 at least three months ago is eligible to get the booster.

Speaking to reporters Zarka said: "We have been preparing for a while for winter and looking at the possibility of two illness waves in the country, flu and coronavirus, two waves we have seen elsewhere in the world,"

Around half of Israel's 9.4 million population has already had three COVID vaccine doses and around 850,000 people have had four, according to health ministry data. More than 4.5 million coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Israel since the start of the pandemic.  There have been 11,667 recorded deaths from the corona virus.

Israel’s Health Ministry said that Israel's coronavirus R-value — which indicates how many people on average a single COVID-19 carrier infects — has topped 1 for the first time in months, indicating that – albeit moderately, the pandemic is on the rise again, and is averaging 850 positives daily.

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Hezbollah & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday, September 18, 2022
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According to Israel’s Military Intelligence Chief, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, Hezbollah is the main hurdle stopping Lebanon from normalizing diplomatic ties with Israel.

The Major General made his comment about the terrorist organization when speaking at the annual conference of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University.

Haliva argued that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is not a pawn under the aegis of Iran, but rather, an independent actor and a partner in Tehran's decision-making process in the region.

He said: "In the framework of regional developments, Nasrallah does his calculations with the Second Lebanon War seared deep into his memory. Nasrallah is revered in Iran, and my working assumption and the IDF's is that he is not a vassal, but a partner in decision-making with the Iranians. It is likely that under certain scenarios, Hezbollah — and Nasrallah at its head — will join Iran's cycle of violence."

Haliva also offered a piece of advice and a stern warning to Nasrallah when he said:

"We have raised the possibility of a potential escalation on the northern front in front of decision-makers. I hope for Nasrallah that he does not underestimate the Israeli response if he decides to escalate matters.”

"I'm reminding you that we shot down the drones that Nasrallah launched at the gas rig, and there was no response from Hezbollah. Israel's might is immense, and I am sure that Hezbollah understands this and does not want to test us. Nasrallah is a serious man and knows what I am talking about."

"The Lebanese people wake up in the morning with no electricity in their homes. The value of the currency is in very poor condition and life there is very difficult. The state of Lebanon — like other countries that Iran has funded, such as Iraq, Yemen, and Syria — is at the bottom of every global parameter of failed states," he said.

"A Lebanese gas rig is an Israeli interest, and also improving the economic situation of the Lebanese people is in Israel's interest. Even the Lebanese people understand what the outcome of war is and that it provides a seedbed for radical development and we should invest our efforts there. Israel is an asset country that has water, technology, and food in addition to military might. Arab countries are aware of that, and that's what led to the Abraham Accords."

Nasrallah was obviously not at the Conference, but the message got through to him loud and clear.

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Iran Arrests
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 17, 2022
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Iranian authorities have arrested several people in connection with the assassination of a Revolutionary Guards colonel that took place this past May, in Tehran.  Iran has blamed Israel and its Western allies for the death.

The Guards, Iran's elite security force, said the shooting of Hassan Sayad Khodai by two people on a motorcycle was the work of "terrorist groups affiliated with global oppression and Zionism".  Translation, global oppression is Iranian terminology for the West and Zionism is, of course, Israel.

Speaking at a news conference an Iranian spokesman said: "Several people have been arrested in the case of the assassination of martyr Khodai. The necessary legal orders have been issued for them and the case is under investigation.”

According to Israeli media, Khodai headed a unit of the Quds Force - the Revolutionary Guards' overseas arm – the unit that planned attacks on Israelis abroad.

For more background, Iranian forces have been playing a key role in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Tehran's ally, in his war against Islamic State and other militant and rebel groups during Syria's civil war.

Khodai's killing coincided with the resumption of Iran’s Nuke Deal talks.

And at least six Iranian scientists and academics have been killed or attacked since 2010, some by assailants riding motorcycles, in strikes believed to have targeted Iran's uranium enrichment program, which, according to the West, is being used to develop Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.

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Stole Her Own Money from Bank
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

She robbed a bank in Beirut to get her own money.

Yes, indeed, strange bank robberies are being perpetrated in Lebanon.

There was a brief hostage situation at a Beirut branch of Lebanon's BLOM Bank when an apparently armed woman and her associates demanded money from a teller.  According to a depositors’ advocacy group called Outcry, the woman and her associates left the bank carrying more than $13,000 in cash - from her own account.

Sometime later, according to the advocacy group, an armed man entered a branch of Bankmed in Lebanon's mountain city of Aley and attempted to retrieve his trapped savings.  This incident was corroborated by a security source who spoke to Reuters.

The security source went on to explain that the man retrieved a portion of his money before he handed himself over to security forces and was detained.

Why, you are probably wondering, is this happening?

Lebanon's banks have locked most depositors out of their savings ever since a financial crisis took hold of the country three years ago.  Now, most Lebanese citizens are left without the means to pay for basic needs.  And the government of Lebanon has failed to address this crisis.

As for the woman with the gun, it turns out that the gun was a toy and the reason she needed the money was to pay for her sister’s cancer treatments.  

Speaking to a television station the woman said: "I have nothing more to lose, I got to the end of the road. I went to the branch manager two days ago and said my sister is dying, she doesn't have time." The branch manager gave her some money, but it just wasn’t enough.  

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Billionaires in Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 15, 2022
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Some stories are jaw dropping and this story fits that bill.

A new report published by Henley Global Citizens reveals that 42,400 millionaires live in Tel Aviv. 

Of these Tel Aviv millionaires, 2,260 have a fortune of more than 10 million dollars and 118 have a fortune worth more than 100 million dollars.

But that’s not all, Tel Aviv is also home to 12 billionaires.

The Israeli city of Tel Aviv placed second in the list of the five richest cities in the Middle East according to the number of millionaires who live there. 

First was Dubai, then Tel Aviv. Trailing Tel Aviv are Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh in third, fourth and fifth place.

Despite its perceived wealth, it was not a city from the Middle East that topped the list of cities with the largest number of billionaires and millionaires.  That distinction belongs to New York.  

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Jew Hatred on Campus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 14, 2022
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The student union at the University of Adelaide fired an editor of its campus student magazine after the editor called for “death to Israel” in an article last month.  Following the firing, the editor doubled down and continued to call for the death of Israel in public forums.

In a statement, the board of YouX, the university’s student body, indicated that Habibah Jaghoori’s “recent public conduct would reasonably be perceived by any fair-minded person to be threatening the welfare of students at our University”.

In an article that was published on August 4th in On Dit, the campus student magazine, Jaghoori, concluded with the phrase “Death to Israel.” The article was written following the three-day conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip.

According to the YouX statement, it was not the article that prompted the firing of Jaghoori. Rather, her removal was “specifically related to her conduct and behavior since the article’s publication”.

The statement of the student board continued: “Despite numerous opportunities to clarify her position and dispel any misinterpretation, she has continued to use language in public forums that can be clearly construed to support actions that could threaten the welfare of students.”

It was not clear what public forums YouX was referring to, but the pro-Israel blogger Israelly Cool posted a video of a student union meeting at which Jaghoori repeatedly said “death to Israel” and, when challenged by Jewish students who said they found it threatening, she giggled.

The Australian Union of Jewish Students praised the decision. Their statement read: “Calling for violence and death rather than peace, dialogue and constructive criticism of Israel, rightly has no place on university campus.”

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Shin Bet Prediction
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday, September 13, 2022
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Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar offered a prediction and assessment for the direction of Israel’s safety and security.

Director Bar explained that Israel's political instability and social tensions may "encourage terror groups and enemy states."

According to Bar, "weakening of the Palestinian Authority would require security policy changes and new civil reforms alongside Fatah. Even the Palestinian public supports this move, but you need two for tango."

In other words, while there is Palestinian popular support and while Israelis understand that it takes two to tango and that Palestinian leadership is their dance partner, Palestinian leadership has absolutely no interest in dancing with Israel. 

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Palestinan Tensions
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 12, 2022
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There has been tension and even murderous violence between Palestinian factions for decades.

Palestinian faction band together only to, again and again, split apart.

Algeria announced that it will mediate talks between Hamas and Fatah in a bid to mend the long-fraught ties between the two most prominent Palestinian factions.

According to Lebanese media, the Palestinians said that Algeria approached both Hamas and Fatah and they all agreed that Algeria would host peace talks in late September.

They will, most likely, come to an agreement.  But as always, it is unlikely that any agreement they do come to will last.  It will collapse a few short weeks later.

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Iran Hijacks Ship
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 11, 2022
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Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have hijacked a foreign ship in the Persian Gulf for allegedly smuggling 757,000 liters of diesel out of the country.  That news comes to us from IRNA, the Iranian state news agency.

IRNA reported that the unnamed vessel's seven crew members, all foreign nationals, have been handed over to legal authorities.  The news agency did not release the nationality of the ship or the nationalities of the crew members.   :01/03:46TruvidfullScreen

Iran, which has some of the world's cheapest fuel prices due to heavy subsidies and the plunge in value of its national currency, has been fighting rampant fuel smuggling - both by land to neighboring countries and by sea to Gulf Arab states.

The Guards have detained several ships in the past few months for smuggling fuel in the Gulf.

This hijacking incident indicates how serious Iran is about wanting total control of the export of fuel.  Only they can break the embargo - not private companies, not investors and not pirates.

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Albania Cyberattack
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 10, 2022
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Albania was the target of a major cyberattack. 

In July, the Albanian government’s computer system were targeted by malicious cyberattacks. And it was Iran that was behind the attack.

In response, the United States government-imposed sanctions on Iran's intelligence agency and its leadership.

The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control designated Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security and Esmail Khatib, who heads the ministry, as terror actors responsible for cyber-related activities against the U.S. and its allies.

Albania, a NATO member, cut diplomatic ties with Iran and expelled all Iranian embassy staff because of the cyberattack. It was the first known case of a country cutting diplomatic relations over a cyberattack.

Brian Nelson, the U.S. Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence issued a statement that reads: "Iran's cyberattack against Albania disregards norms of responsible peacetime State behavior in cyberspace."

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Turkey & Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 9, 2022
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Turkey has begun to reassess its role in the war against terror. 

Turkish leadership has decided to crack down on the terrorists that have been freely roaming throughout their country and organizing right under their nose.

Once that decision was made, Turkish police took action and captured senior Islamic State (ISIS) leader Bashar Hattab Ghazal Al Sumaidai.  That news was released by President Tayyip Erdogan himself and was quoted by the state-owned Anadolu news agency.

After returning from a trip to the Balkans, President Erdogan spoke to journalists and informed them that the militant, code-named Abu Zeyd, was captured in an operation carried out by Turkey’s police and Turkey’s intelligence agency.

Erdogan said that the terrorist was transferred to judicial authorities and placed in prison, in Turkey, after interrogation by police and intelligence personnel.

This is a long awaited and major step forward for Turkey.

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Blinken To Kyiv
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken surprised everyone and visited Kyiv.

In Kyiv, Blinken announced that the Biden administration was promising a gift of major new military aid, worth more than $2.8 billion to Ukraine and other European countries threatened by Russia.

In meetings with senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, Blinken said that the Biden administration had notified Congress of its intent to provide $2.2 billion in long-term military financing to Ukraine and 18 of its neighbors, including NATO members and regional security partners, that are "potentially at risk of future Russian aggression."

Blinken told Zelensky that: "We know this is a pivotal moment, more than six months into Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, as your counteroffensive is now underway and proving effective."

Zelensky replied with: "We are grateful for the signal, for this enormous support that you're providing on a day-to-day basis."

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Israel Cracks Down on Drug Smuggling
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, September 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav announced that Israel’s military forces have successfully increased operations to thwart drugs and weapons smuggling across the Jordanian and Egyptian borders and into Israel.

Kochav said that drugs valued at 135 million shekels and some 300 illegal weapons had been apprehended after they entered Israeli territory.

For years drugs and weapons have been smuggled into Israel.  As intended, these contraband materials cause tremendous harm to Israel. Stopping their illegal arrival is essential.

The IDF keeps Israel secure in myriad and all important ways.

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White HouseL No Conditions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The White House has made it clear that there will be no conditionality between the re-implementation of the Iran nuclear deal and verifying whether Tehran has upheld its obligations under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

The message, as delivered by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, was clear and unambiguous.

Jean-Pierre told reporters that: "There should not be any conditionality between re-implementation of the JCPOA and investigations related to Iran's legal obligations under the Non-proliferation Treaty,"

She was, of course, referring to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) probes into uranium traces found at three undeclared Iranian sites.

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Israel Thinks there's a Better Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel believes that Western powers can reach a better nuclear deal with Iran than the one they are now negotiating. 

As attempt towards reviving the original 2015 nuclear pact seem to be reaching final stages, a senior Israeli lawmaker gave an interview to Israeli radio station 102 FM and said: "We must draft a much better deal with a much longer stick. And this is what we're not seeing,"

The speaker was Ram Ben-Barak, head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

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Gaza Starts Executions Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday Septembert 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Gaza’s Interior Ministry announced that Hamas executed five Palestinians.  

Full names were not provided for the group, but their crimes were listed. Two of the five, ages 44 and 54, were charged with engaging in espionage for Israel that dated back to 2015 and 2009. They were charged with giving information to Israel that led to the killing of Palestinians.  The other three had been convicted of murder.

The dawn executions, carried out by hanging or by firing squad, were the first official executions in the Palestinian territories since 2017.  Previous Hamas executions have drawn criticism from International human rights groups.

The official Interior Ministry statement read: "The execution was carried out after the conclusion of all legal procedures. The rulings had been final, with implementation mandatory, after all of the convicted were accorded full rights to defend themselves".

According to Palestinian law, the president, Mahmoud Abbas, has the final word on whether executions can be carried out. But Abbas has no effect on rulings in Gaza.

Since Hamas ousted Abbas and the PA from Gaza in 2007, its courts have sentenced dozens of Palestinians to death, and have executed 27 people.

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Qatar to Permit Beer at World Cup
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Alcohol is forbidden according to Muslim law.  But attendees at the much anticipated upcoming World Cup, which will be held in Qatar, have received a dispensation, of sorts.

Qatar will permit ticketed fans to buy alcoholic beer at World Cup soccer matches starting three hours before kickoff and for one hour after the final whistle, but not during the match. 

This information comes from a source with, we are told, knowledge of plans for the tournament.

According to the source, Budweiser, a major World Cup sponsor with exclusive rights to sell beer at the tournament, will serve beer within the ticketed perimeter surrounding each stadium.  But Budweiser will not be serving beer, in the stadium stands or in the concourse/ concourse.

This year's World Cup is the first to be held in a Muslim country.  The event, which is both sponsored by a major beer brand and attended by many fans of beer drinking, posed a new set of problems for the World Game organizers.   

They seem to working out the kinks in the system.

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IDF Permits Iran Opposition TV film Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

This is a shocker. It is a news item that stunned me.

For the first time ever, the IDF authorized the Iranian opposition TV channel called "Iran International" entrance to the Iron Dome base and granted the channel permission to speak with base commanders and soldiers.

During the visit an IDF commander told an Iranian correspondent that:  "the Iron Dome is only part of Israel's defense system, which includes four different systems that can protect Israeli skies from short and long range missiles from Hezbollah and Iran."

There really was logic behind this unique move.

Israeli leadership knows that the ruling regime in Iran monitors the opposition channel.  This was an opportunity to send a clear message illustrating Israel’s military ingenuity and creativity.

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Iran Arrest Bahai
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

For the second time in two months Iranian media reported that their security forces arrested 12 individuals belonging to the Bahai faith in the north of the country.

Bahai has been outlawed in Iran.  Members have been persecuted in Iran since they established themselves as an offshoot of Islam. 

Followers of this faith are accused of supporting Israel and undermining the Iranian regime.

There is such antipathy from the government of Iran towards Bahai that, in Iran, it is neither illegal to persecute nor to kill those who are Bahai members.

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IsraelBombs Aleppo Airport
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday Auigst 31, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel bombed Aleppo airport and the areas around it.  The bomb strike was reported by SANA, the Syrian State News Agency.

The strike caused damage to the airport which has been temporarily shut down.

Aleppo is in northern Syria, very close to the Turkish Syrian border.

Damascus, on the other hand, is in the south of Syria close to the Israeli border.

Why would Israel bomb the Aleppo airport? 

The answer is that Iran is using the Aleppo airport as its base of operations to import weapons and the supplies needed to manufacture weapons. One of the destroyed factories near the airport was a missile factory. Most of the parts in that factory were imported from Iran and the missiles themselves were assembled in Aleppo.

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Lapid Guards US Relationship
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid explained that Israel is carrying out a correct policy ahead of the U.S. administrations intentions to return to the Iranian nuclear deal.

In Jerusalem, at the start of a weekly cabinet meeting, Lapid said: "Our policy this past year has been to apply pressure but not bring about a crisis in relations with the U.S., by presenting American officials with credible intelligence”.

Come what may, it is Israel that will have to deal with Iran and its bomb.  And it should be clear to everyone that Israel is flying solo on the issue of Iran. 

Neither the United States nor the rest of the world is concerned about Iran’s nuclear potential. They just want a deal.

There is very little doubt that when necessary, Israel will launch a surgical strike on Iran’s nuclear arsenal and manufacturing capabilities.

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Putin Expands Army
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order increasing the size of Russia's armed forces from 1.9 to 2.04 million.  This news was reported by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency.

The figure, which includes a 137,000 increase in the number of military personnel to 1.15 million, will go into effect on Jan 1.

This decision by the Russian president proves several important points and gives insight into Vladimir Putin’s strategy and intention.

Most importantly, it is now abundantly clear that Putin expects Russia to be at war for the near future.  To implement that goal, Russia will need more soldiers and more military personnel.

What is not clear is whether the war between Ukraine and Russia will be the only conflict that Russia will be engaged in, or if Putin has other conquests in his sites

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Israel Indicts Islamic Jihad Leader
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli military court recently filed an indictment against senior Islamic Jihad operative Bassam al-Saadi.

It was the arrest of al-Saadi that sparked the tensions that culminated in days of fighting between the IDF and Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza.

Bassam al-Saadi is considered to be one of the most prominent figures in the Islamic Jihad’s West Bank branch.  The indictment charges him with membership in and service to a terror group, unauthorized gathering, aiding contact with hostile elements, incitement and impersonation.

According to the indictment, al-Saadi received funds from an Islamic Jihad operator in Gaza, incited the continuation of a violent struggle against Israel and tried to evade arrest by identifying himself as a different person.

The prosecution asked to extend al-Saadi's remand until the end of the proceedings against him.

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Israel Cant Get World Cup Tckts
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

People from around the world are buying their tickets for the World Cup.

To prevent counterfeit tickets, the tickets can only be purchased through a single company which is located in Qatar, host of the World Cup. The company is called Winterkill Hospitality. 

Along with game tickets, Winterkill is offering packages for travel, hotel, food and entertainment.

You buy tickets by going on the Winterkill site, signing in, giving your region and then your country.

And that’s where a complication sets in.

Israel is not on the list.  Occupied Palestinian Territories is on the list.  And Israelis are told to sign up and purchase their tickets by clicking on Occupied Palestinian Territories.

FIFA awarded Qatar the honor of hosting on the condition that all members will be welcome.  Well, apparently not!

The governments of Qatar and Israel signed an agreement in June permitting Israelis to enter Qatar and watch the Games.  And Israel and Qatar are on working on direct flights between the countries to allow for easier access. 

Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Ganz even made public statements acclaiming the great success that the love of sport is bringing to the region.

And now this.

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Israel Helps Ukraine Fight Cancer
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The war in Ukraine, while overwhelming, does not stop people from becoming ill and requiring treatment.  It just complicates matters.  If left untreated, people will die, particularly cancer patients.

Dr. Polina Stepensky from Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem has created a training program for doctors in Ukraine.  Dr. Stepensky raised the money, brought the Ukrainian physicians to Israel and taught them how to manage care in the middle of a crisis.

Her Ukrainian contact is Dr. Anna Uzlova.

In an interview from Kiev, which has faced severe bombing strikes, Dr. Uzlova gave an interview from the National Cancer Institute, and explained: “Our patients now must fight two enemies. The disease, and the invasion. They have no choice but to win both of them.

“We realized at an early stage that the war is going to go on for a while. So, we decided to continue our efforts to treat cancer patients, and build a nationwide system to save them, under fire.”

In addition to new medical treatments, at Hadassah Hospital the Ukrainian physicians were taught the Israeli method of utilizing all staff members - nurses, therapists and social workers.  All departments within the hospital were open and available to their guests from Ukraine.

According to Stepansky: “Here in Hadassah, we have some of the most advanced treatment methods in the world, such as CAR-T (cell therapy). But we also learned how to run treatment protocols in very efficient ways. This could save an enormous amount of money for the health system.”

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Gold Gets St in Kyiv
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Kyiv is naming a street after Israel’s first – and so far only, female prime minister, Golda Meir.

Israeli ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, announced the decision after meeting with Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Ukraine’s capital city.

Golda Meir, Israel's fourth prime minister, was born in Kyiv in 1898.  Her maiden name was Mabovitch, Golda Mabovitch. Golda’s family fled to the United States in 1905, when she was 7 years old, escaping anti-Semitic violence and pogroms in Ukraine.  The family settled in Milwaukee, WI.

Ukraine today is trying to "de-Russify" street names in the wake of the Russian invasion of the country. Naming a street after Golda Meir fits in with that plan.

Ukrainians have a special place in their hearts for Golda, as she is often called. Throughout this war, famous lines from her speeches have appeared in pro-Ukrainian memes and some were even picked up by Ukrainian diplomats.

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Plane Delays Silver Lining
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Maybe there is a silver lining to the horrendous travel stories about lost luggage and delayed luggage.

The search for missing luggage has been helpful in the fight against drug trafficking.

The global backlog in airline baggage loading was instrumental in the discovery, by Israeli police, of a drug haul.  The drugs were hidden in a suitcase that was X-rayed after it arrived a day late and went unclaimed.

The tinfoil-wrapped 7 kg (15 lb) of amphetamines worth some $600,000 were in a false bottom of the bag, which police allowed to be sent from Ben Gurion Airport to the Jerusalem address its owner had listed in his lost-and-found complaint.

The drugs, of course, were no longer in the suitcase.

It is not very smart to put your address on luggage that is being used for drug smuggling.

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British Arrest ISIS Killer
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

British authorities have finally caught and charged a 38-year-old man who is accused of being a member of an Islamic State terrorist cell.

The terrorist, Aine Davis, had been deported from Turkey to England.

Because they had British accents, those held captives by this terrorist cell dubbed their captors “The Beatles”.  But that’s where the levity ended.

Members of this terrorist cell perpetrated horrific and brutal murderers.   They kidnapped Westerners and held them captive.  Some of the captives were beheaded.  Others were held for ransom and huge sums of money. 

Prosecutors said they had originally authorized the charging of Davis under terrorism laws in 2014. After being deported by Turkish authorities he was arrested on his arrival at Luton Airport and will soon appear in a London court.

Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service released a statement that: "Mr. Davis, 38, has been charged with terrorism offenses and possession of a firearm for a purpose connected with terrorism".

According to BBS reports, Lewis denies being a member of the terrorist group.

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Twitter Employee Helped Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A former Twitter Inc manager was convicted of spying for Saudi Arabia.  He was found guilty on six criminal counts, including acting as an agent for a foreign country and trying to disguise a payment from an official tied to Saudi's royal family.

The spy was found guilty after a 2 ˝ week long trial held in federal court in San Francisco.  Of the 11 counts in the charge against him. 5 were not proven and on the other 6 he was found guilty.

Ahmad Abouammo is a dual U.S.-Lebanese citizen.  In his position at Twitter he helped oversee relationships with journalists and celebrities in the Middle East and North Africa.

There are many spies roaming around throughout the United States.  It would be a mistake to think otherwise.  Most are from China, but many are from Russia and, like Abouammo, from Arab countries.

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Gaza Tried to Bomb Israeli Gas Rig
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel announced that Gaza's Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was involved in a failed attempt to launch a drone toward the Tamar gas rig during this recent Operation Breaking Dawn.

The terrorist group's unsuccessful launch of an unmanned aircraft from Gaza prompted Israel's army to step up its efforts to protect the gas rig’s platform which is situated in southern Israel.

The drone was launched from Gaza and set out across the Mediterranean Sea toward the gas rig before it was intercepted.

It is very unusual for Israel to publicly discuss these matters. 

We can surmise from Israel’s making this information public that Jerusalem wants to inform PIJ, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran that drone offensive is not working and that Israel has upgraded its anti-drone defenses.

Israel’s enemies will, hopefully, get the message.   

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Iron Dome 97% Hit Rate
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

97% effective is near perfect.  

Israel’s Iron Dome, in real battle conditions, as rockets launched from Gaza headed into Israel, was 97% effective in destroying those rockets. 

The Iron Dome was first created in 2011.  At that point the anti-missile defense battery operated at 85% efficiency. Since then, it has been tweaked and it continues to improve.  In 2012 it had a 90% shoot down rate.

The Iron Dome was developed by Israeli state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd with support from U.S. firm Raytheon Technologies Corp.  This unique defense system was designed to economize on costly interceptor missiles by only engaging rockets that are on a trajectory to hit populated areas.

And since the most recent flare-up of fighting between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants in Gaza, it has, according to an Israeli military spokesperson, been the Iron Dome’s best performance so far.

"We are improving our capabilities all of the time," the spokesperson said. "Touch wood."

Islamic Jihad had fired 580 rockets at Israel as of Sunday morning, the spokesman said, adding that around 20% fell short.  That means that they fell within Gaza.  The remaining 80% reached as far as the outskirts of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

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Bella Hadid Hits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Bella Hadid, world renowned model, has 54 million followers on her Instagram account.  And Bella Hadid used that Instagram account to attack Israel.

On her Instagram account Hadid quoted from an interview with Ha’Aretz columnist Gideon Levy that ran in Al-Jazeera.  

Quoting from the interview, the super model wrote: "The Israeli public is quite brainwashed and knows very little about what is going on. In recent days we were told that the southern communities near the border with Gaza need to be under curfew because there is danger. No one knew what the danger was exactly and all of a sudden, after three or four days, Israel said this was an 'intolerable' situation – but Gaza can be under siege for 16 years and this is 'tolerable.' Meanwhile, some of the communities in the south can't withstand four days of lockdown…"

And she added pictures.

Hadid, the American born daughter of a Palestinian Jordanian has never been a fan of Israel. In fact, it’s fair to call her a Palestinian advocate and an Israeli basher.

Several months ago, on Valentine's Day, Hadid took a virtual swing at the Jewish state, posting a photograph of a heart on her Instagram page with the words "Will you free my Palestine".  It was, of course, a play on the traditional request "Will you be my Valentine."

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Gaza Bombs Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

580 rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel. 

Most of them were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.

But damage was done within Israel. Shrapnel from both the terrorist’s rockets and from the Iron Dome defense system came raining down and some of it fell into residential and commercial areas. 

One person from Israel was injured from the rocket debris.  He is a Palestinian worker from Hebron working in a factory in Ashkelon.

This is the classic definition of irony.

Palestinian terrorists try to kill and wound and terrorize as many Israelis as possible by launching rockets that are intercepted and their falling remains hurt a Palestinian from the West Bank working in Israel.   

Classic irony!

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Israel is the Winner
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The biggest winner in US President Joe Biden’s meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was not the United States.

In the end, the United States did not walk away with any significant increase in OPEC oil production.  In fact, the goal the United States had set for this meeting wasn’t met at all, even though the US jumped through Saudi hoops and even let the Saudis out of the diplomatic doghouse it was in.

The biggest winner was Israel. 

Israel was one topic that both the United States and Saudi Arabia could agree on.  And agree they did. 

For years Israel and Saudi Arabia had conducted secret interactions especially around security and Iran. But as of late, that relationship, albeit secret, had have cooled off.  Until Biden’s visit.

The US / Saudi meeting smoothed over Saudi Arabia’s negative feelings towards Israel and allowed for forward movement - not just on air travel but also on security and trade especially, hi-tech

Biden failed at one goal, but succeeded in another.

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Israel Holds PA Tax Money
By Micah Halpern

Wendesday August 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has decided to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue from the Palestinian Authority.

The tax is collected in the ports and then delivered to the PA.

The decision to withhold the money was made by Israel because the Palestinian Authority continues with its policy of paying out stipends to Palestinians who were killed or imprisoned after perpetrating terrorist acts against Israelis and the Jewish state.

Israel will offset approximately NIS 610 million ($175 million) in 12 installments. Israel withheld a similar sum in Palestinian tax revenue last summer.

The decision by Israel to withhold the money is in accordance with a 2018 law that requires them to deduct stipends paid out by the PA to Palestinian terrorists and their families. Israelis believe that the payments encourage violence, while the Palestinians say the funds assist distressed families.

In April, the High Court of Justice in Israel ruled that due to this controversial PA policy termed “Pay to Slay”, the Palestinian Authority can be held liable for terrorist acts.

Justice Yitzhak Amit, setting out the majority ruling, found that the decision to pay convicted Palestinian terrorists and those killed as part of what Palestinians define as the “struggle against Israel” makes the PA liable for their actions.

Amit wrote: “[The PA] expresses its consent to their actions, in a manner that takes responsibility for the acts. This justifies that [the PA] will be assigned personal and direct responsibility.”

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Iran Arrests Bahai
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is once again arresting members of the Baha’i community. 

Baha’i, an offshoot of Islam, is considered to be a collection of apostates and heretics by religious Iranian leadership.

According to a report by Iranian State TV, those who have been arrested are being charged as spies.  They are accused of spying for Israel.

Crackdowns on Baha’i are common in Iran. What is rare is for the ministry to report the arrests. The report did not say how many Baha’i had been detained but the detentions have raised concerns about potential crackdowns on followers of the religion.

Iran already bans the Baha'i, a religion founded in the 1860s by a Persian nobleman considered a prophet by his followers. Muslims consider Muhammad the highest prophet.

Since the 19th century many Iranians have converted to the Baha'i sect.

In 2013, Iran's top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, issued a fatwa, a religious decree, urging Iranians to avoid all dealings with members of the banned Baha'i sect.

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Lebanon Arrests Christian Leader
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Maronite Archbishop of the Holy Land, headquartered in Haifa, serves as the leader of the Maronite Church in Israel. Upon his return to Lebanon from Israel, the Archbishop was subjected to an intense search.

Because of his special role numerous exceptions are made for Archbishop Moussa El-Hage to travel back and forth between these countries which have no diplomatic relations.  The Archbishop brings aid and assistance and money to support his parishioners.

While not actually arrested, the Archbishop who has been vocal in his call to stop calling all Israelis terrorists and traitors, was charged with treason.

Judge Akiki who was hearing the case said: "I respect the church, but there is a law that is the boycott of Israel and it is my duty as a judge to implement it".   

Maronite Patriarch Rahi, who sits in Beirut Lebanon, has come to the defense of the Archbishop. 

Rahi has demanded that officials rectify the situation.  He stated: "What happened with Archbishop Moussa El-Hage constitutes a test of the ability of those responsible to put an end to the attack on the Maronite Church...Some were complaining about the interference of sects in the state, so the state attacked a founding sect and a cleric who was famous for his piety and serving the people, whom the state should have secured respect for in his movement between Lebanon and his diocese."

Rejecting claims that the transfer of funds from Lebanese citizens in Israel to their relatives in Lebanon is considered "working with the enemy," the Maronite Patriarch stressed that: "we affirm once again that 'working' with an enemy country has never been part of our culture, our spirituality and our dignity."

Patriarch Rahi insisted that: "We are the first to respect and defend the laws, so we ask the authorities to respect and abide by them. We are the first to respect the judiciary and defend it, but we ask judges and judicial officials to respect the sanctity of the judiciary and liberate it from maliciousness and dependence on political and sectarian forces.”

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Explosion in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Two years ago, the Port of Beirut exploded. 

The explosion was equivalent to 10% of the power of a large nuclear bomb.  It was so powerful an explosion that a major section of Beirut was destroyed and windows were broken 15 miles away.

The sound reverberated and smoke could be seen for tens of miles.

Almost exactly two years later to the day, silos in the Port of Beirut have collapsed and a large cloud of dust and smoke was seen in the area.  This report comes from a witness as reported by Reuters. 

Earlier in the month, a fire had been burning slowly in the ruins of the port's grain silos.  The fire, which gave off an orange glow was visible at night from nearby neighborhoods.  Local Lebanese warned that the fires would cause the silos to collapse but nothing was done to prevent the damage.

Something is rotten in the leadership of Lebanon.

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Direct flights from Nigeria to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

There will soon be direct flights to and from Israel and Nigeria.

The announcement was made, during a meeting held in Jerusalem, by both Israeli Tourism Minister Yoel Razvozov and the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Christian Pilgrim Commission, Dr. Yakubu Pam.

The meeting centered around the mutual benefit that will come to both parties with the opening of this new route.

The route, a regular, non-stop flight, is intended to provide direct service for Christians in Nigeria to visit religious sites in Jerusalem.  According to Razvozov, roughly 50% of Nigerians are Christian.

It will take a bit of coordination, but it is expected that both Nigerian Air and El Al will be providing the service.

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Stop UN Investigation
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid has called for UN Secretary General António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres to disband the UN Human Rights Commission of Inquiry (COI).

Lapid’s request cum demand was prompted by statements made by COI Commissioner Miloon Kothari.

On July 25th Kothari was quoted saying that the “Jewish lobby” has global influence and power. The Commissioner also called for ousting Israel from the United Nations.

The COI, which is investigating the 11-day war between Israel and Gaza, has placed almost all blame on Israel.

Miloon Kathari is a professional within the United Nations. His expertise is in human rights and in housing. The statements, coming from him, are no surprise. Miloon Kathari has a long and established history of Jew hatred.

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Iranian Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Pro-Iranian hacker group Al Tahrea announced that they had launched a cyber-attack against Israeli targets.  According to their claim, Al Tahrea launched a cyberattack on soft Israeli sites.

Al Tahrea and Israel have history. This is the same group that recently took down the Israel Airport Authority website.

Israel has come under attack from many hacker groups.  The most common modus operandi for the hackers is to identify and then attack soft Israeli targets.  

The objective of these hackers is not merely to infiltrate Israeli targets.  It is to show the world that Israel is vulnerable.  That contrary to reputation, Israel, the Start-UP Nation, is not superior in computer technology.  That they, the hackers are better at their craft.

The hackers want to inconvenience Israelis, they want to make life difficult for Israelis, rather than to cripple the country.

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Putin vs Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Vladimir Putin is on the war path against Israel.

Russia is shutting down the office of the Jewish Agency in Moscow.  They are arresting Russian who did not declare their Israeli citizenship within 30 days of their arrival in the country.

Russia's Foreign Affairs spokeswoman, Ministry Maria Zakharova, said that Israel has taken an "unhelpful" stance towards Russia in the last few months.

In her statement, Zakharova explained that Russia’s issues with the Jewish Agency are legal rather than national.  She also acknowledged that Israel's support of Ukraine "raises questions".

During a TV interview Maria Zakharova said: “It is up to Russia's Ministry of Justice to take a decision on the fate of the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency, which helps Jews emigrate to Israel.”

When asked about the fate of the Jewish Agency in Moscow the spokeswoman responded: "It's a question for the Ministry of Justice, that's the information I have. It definitely is a legal matter.”

The Israel-based Jewish Agency is the largest Jewish organization in the world.

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Saudis Visit Europe
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Time heals diplomatic wounds.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made his first trip to any European Union country since the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The country he chose to visit on this maiden voyage is Greece.

Bin Salman travelled with a large delegation composed of both government and business representatives.  Included in the crown prince’s itinerary was a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the signing of a series of bilateral investment and defense agreements.

The EU in general, and Greece in particular, has much to gain from Saudi interaction and investments.

In the end business, is more important any other issue.  Business triumphs.

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Russia Shot At Israeli Jets
By Micah Halpern

Monnday July 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:


srael has acknowledged that, in May, IDF jets came under Russian anti-aircraft fire over Syria.  Israel’s defense systems, they report, prevented Russia from hitting their target.

Downplaying the situation, Israel has termed the confrontation as just a "one-off incident".

This disclosure, which came from Defense Minister Benny Gantz, came as tensions between Israel and Russia over the Israel’s condemnation of the Ukraine war and Russia’s scrutiny of the Jewish Agency’s role in their country, intensified.

Russia has helped Syrian President Bashar Assad turn the tide of their more than a decade-old civil war.  Their influence in Damascus is strong and widely accepted.  And Russian forces in Syria have also regularly turned a blind eye when Israel conducted air strikes against suspected Iranian-sponsored deployments and arms transfers in Syria.

For these reasons and others, it is very important that tensions between Russia and Israel do not spiral out of control.


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EU Finds Alt to Russian Gas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 24, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia supplies oil and gas to the European Union.  And the EU is afraid that Russia will cut off the supply. 

Moscow has said that despite the sanctions, the supply will not be shut off. That’s because Russia needs the money.  And as far as Russia is concerned, the more expensive the oil and gas, the better it is for Russia.

The status quo is too uncertain and the EU needs to find alternative oil. If they can accomplish that maneuver, it will make them more secure and it will hurt Russia.

Of all countries, Nigeria has popped up as an alternative.

Matthew Baldwin, deputy director general of the European Commission's energy department, is the person who first made this possibility public.

Baldwin was in Nigeria where he held meetings with officials from Africa's largest oil producer when he was told that Nigeria was improving security in the Niger Delta and planned to re-open the Trans Niger pipeline sometime after August. 

If it happens, it would yield more gas exports to Europe and solve the problem of their reliance on Russia.

This is very good news for everyone - except Russia.

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Israeli Jews Enters Mecca
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli journalist Gil Tamari posted that he had crossed into Islam’s holy city Mecca.  On his post it was possible to watch Tamari as he drove into Mecca proper and crossed under the huge hands holding a Koran at the entrance to the city.    

Mecca, located in Saudi Arabia, is a city for believers only.  It is forbidden for non-believers to enter.

It was just a matter of time before an Israeli, even a respected journalist like Gil Tamari, would try to pull off a stunt like this. And police in Mecca say they have arrested a Saudi man who helped Tamari sneak into Islam's holiest city, defying a rule that only Muslims can enter the area.

While Muslims of any nationality and background can enter Mecca, non-Muslims are not permitted.  A very specific code of conduct and behavior is required of all people within Mecca’s boundaries.  That code includes certain forms of modesty, ritual cleansing and prayers.

The public backlash over the Israel’s visit was immediate on social media.  It was hostile, with Muslims and Saudis expressing their anger over Tamari’s deception and apparent disregard for the sanctity of the site.

Tamari was wrong.  He acted arrogantly and selfishly.  He could have driven up to the edge of the city and not broken through the invisible, but very spiritual, boundary to the city – Islam’s holiest site.

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Iran Violating Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

If you have been paying attention to reports from and about Iran then you know that they Iranians are advancing toward nuclear capabilities at a very rapid pace. 

And one of the projects Teheran has undertaken is the dismantling of the international watchdog’s equipment specifically set up to monitor their nuclear development.  

The International Atomic Energy Agency has admitted to having very limited visibility on what is happening. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told the Spanish media outlet El Pais that Iran’s nuclear program is moving at a very rapid rate.    

In June, Iran began removing essentially all of the agency's monitoring equipment, originally installed under the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. At the time, Grossi said that the dismantling of their equipment by Iran could deal a "fatal blow" to chances of reviving the Nuke Deal following the pullout by the United States in 2018.

Grossi told El Pais: "The bottom line is that for almost five weeks I have had very limited visibility, with a nuclear program that is galloping ahead and, therefore, if there is an agreement, it is going to be very difficult for me to reconstruct the puzzle of this whole period of forced blindness."

This is neither good news nor is it surprising news.  This is how Iran does things.

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Cameras replace US Soldiers
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Times are certainly changing.  The United States is withdrawing troops from the Straits of Tiran.  People are being replaced with cameras.  These cameras will monitor events and safe shipping lines travelling through the water at the mouth of the Red Sea.

US officials have announced that remote-controlled cameras will take over responsibility from U.S.-led peacekeepers for ensuring that international shipping retains freedom of access to the Gulf of Aqaba. 

The coastline of the Gulf of Aqaba is shared by Israel and three Arab nations.

During his visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the tiny Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) contingent on Tiran, which lies at the mouth of the Gulf, would be departing.

Israel is skeptical about the feasibility of this new arrangement, but has not impeded the change in protocol.

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Israelis Visit Arab Countries
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 20, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The opening of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Arab world is many-faceted.

Exchanges of security, military material and intelligence is a key benefit of these new relationships. Technology is another.  Trade and tourism benefits both sides.

As part of an official trip to Morocco, IDF Chief of Staff Major General Aviv Kochavi visited the "Ben Grier" Moroccan airbase.  There, Kochavi met with the commander, Colonel Major Hassan Mahuar.  The military leaders spoke about cooperation between their country’s air forces.

During his visit Kochavi also met with members of the Moroccan Jewish community.  Addressing the crowd in the synagogue he said: "Morocco is an ally to Israel and is an example to deep connections between peoples based on a common heritage."

This bodes well for Israel and for Morocco. It is a very good sign for the future of Israel’s relationship with the Arab world.

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Buck Stops
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 19, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The buck stops where?

US President Harry S. Truman had a sign prominently displayed on his desk that read “the buck stops here.” In other words, ultimate responsibility rests with the leader. Great leaders take responsibility.

But it seems that not all leaders subscribe to that sentiment.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu testified that he bears no responsibility for the safety gaps that led to the deadly stampede that killed 45 people last year on the Jewish holiday and festival called Lag B’Omer.

The incident, which was the worst civilian disaster in the country's history, took place on Mount Meron in northern Israel in April of 2021. Around 100,000 worshipers attended the celebration despite coronavirus regulations limiting outdoor assemblies to 500 people, and in spite of longstanding warnings about the safety of the site.

Testifying before an independent commission investigating the tragedy, then Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed that he only became involved in preparations for the Festival at Meron because of the coronavirus pandemic. As for safety gaps or measures, he said, “I didn’t deal with safety … The prime minister doesn't deal with that."

That is simply a sham.

Netanyahu also said that he did not step in to investigate how it happened, why it happened and who was derelict.

The death of 45 people on his watch, countless others injured and still suffering and Netanyahu has the gall to claim no involvement.

This tragedy, this catastrophe, will be a blight on his long career as an Israeli leader.

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Iran Can Make a Nuke
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 18, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

I think that we are approaching the point of no return for Iran and their nuclear technology – their nuclear bomb.

France is convinced that there only a few days left for diplomacy because Iran is on the brink of having a bomb.

Kamal Kharrazi, senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently told Al Jazeera's Arabic media that Tehran will also directly respond against Israel should its security be targeted.

He said: "In a few days we were able to enrich uranium up to 60% and we can easily produce 90% enriched uranium ... Iran has the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb but there has been no decision by Iran to build one."

This is truly, bone chillingly, frightening.

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Taliban Attacks ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Taliban attacked an ISIS group, killing some and arresting the others.

ISIS had perpetrated attacks against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from Afghan soil, so, in response, the Taliban raided ISIS.

"Last night, special forces of the Islamic Emirate discovered and destroyed a center of Islamic State militiamen. During the operation, three of them were killed and five others were arrested," said Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid.

In a message disseminated through his Twitter account, Mujahid pointed out that ISIS "weapons and several vehicles" were seized. He wrote: "It was not so long ago that they launched several rockets against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan."

Why all this tension between the Taliban and ISIS? Here’s the explanation.  ISIS attacked two countries from Taliban controlled Afghanistan.  That made the Taliban look bad. This attack was to shut down the ISIS cell that perpetrated those attacks. 

For the Taliban, the mission was a success.  

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Saudis & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

In an interview with CNN, on the day after US President Joe Biden left Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said that Saudi Arabia that will normalize relations with Israel only after there is a two-state solution.

The Saudi foreign minister said: "We have said that Saudi Arabia supports the Arab Peace Initiative. In fact, we offered it. We have made it clear that peace comes at the end of this process, not at the beginning of it."

"We have also said that the countries that signed the Abrahamic Accords with Israel, those are sovereign decisions made by those countries. We hope that those decisions will have a positive impact on Israeli domestic efforts."

Small steps are important, and those have been taken – even if Saudi Arabia has not changed its official stance on normalizing with Israel.


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UNESCO Report
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A New UNESCO report just blew my socks off.

Around half the public content related to the Holocaust on the Telegram messaging service denies or distorts facts about the killing of six million of Europe's Jews in the Holocaust.

The UNESCO report found that 80% of public German-language messages about the Nazi genocide during World War II denied or distorted facts.  The same distortion was true for 50% of both English language and French language posts about the Holocaust.

The research analyzed 4,000 Holocaust-related posts across five top social media platforms.  In addition to what they found on Telegram, the researchers found Holocaust denial or distortion in 19% of content on Twitter, 17% of content on TikTok, 8% on Facebook and 3% on Instagram.

The report defined distortion as posts that celebrated the genocide, smeared or blamed its victims, equated it to other events such as Israeli policy towards Palestinians, or omitted facts about Nazi perpetrators and their collaborators.

Asked about the report, a Telegram spokesperson said: "Telegram is a platform for free speech where people are welcome to peacefully express their opinions, including those we do not agree with."

The most important point of this report is not the numbers.  These social media platforms provide us with a snapshot of today’s youth. 

Only young people are using these platforms.  Today’s youth have been infected with a POV that rejects the Holocaust.

That is astounding – and very alarming.


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US Stops China Deal w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

China is the United State’s one true competitor in the world today. And the United States has forced Israel to put the brakes on high-tech cyber security deals with China.

Pressure from Washington has been mounting for some time. It started during the Trump administration. As China was pinpointed for the COVID outbreak, serious efforts to stymie Israeli /Chinese tech sales intensified.

Israel is considered a hub for cybersecurity firms, many of which are manned by veterans of Israel’s military's intelligence units.

According to the Israeli National Cyber Directorate, over 40% of private investments in cybersecurity globally are funneled into Israeli firms. Additionally, many foreign high-tech companies have also opened research and development centers in Israel.

Until 2018, China solidified its place as an important partner to Israel's burgeoning high-tech sector, which was looking for a reliable source of capital and access to one of the biggest global markets. In 2018 alone, Chinese investors poured $424 million into Israeli start-ups.

Chinese behemoths such as Ali Baba and Huawei also opened their R&D centers in Israel.

But the Unites States wants China to leave Israel.

According to a US Embassy spokesperson who spoke to Bloomberg News: “We would like to see Israel’s investment screening system strengthened and expanded, especially in the field of high tech. We have been candid with our Israeli friends over risks to our shared national security interests.”

The spokesperson was, of course, referring to China.

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Egypt Meets Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

On June 27th, in the city of Muscat, in Oman, there was a secret meeting between Egypt and Iran.  The meeting took place while Egyptian President el-Sisi was in Oman.

Iran wanted to make certain that the ongoing Negev Summit was not about plotting an attack against Iran. Egypt calmed their fears and explained that the Summit’s objectives truly were purely economic.

During their meeting, Iran and Egypt discussed the situation in the Gaza Strip, the Syrian issue, and other matters in the Middle East.  The meeting opened the door to relations between the two countries.

While Iran’s Mehr News Agency confirmed the meeting in Oman, it did not specify the issues that were discussed between Cairo and Tehran.

Interestingly, there was no other coverage of the meeting.

Egyptian and Gulf news agencies and newspapers did not report any news about Iran meeting with Egypt.

On July 3rd, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian did, however, acknowledge that “Egypt is an important country in the Islamic world,” but then indicated that there were no direct discussions between the two countries.

Interesting, indeed.

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Iran Hacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran successfully attacked both Jerusalem and Eilat with a cyber strike that caused real alarms, as well as metaphorical alarms, to sound.

Yoram Cohen, who heads Israel's internet association, said that while the hack did not appear to harm any vital infrastructure, it revealed, once again, how vulnerable civilian systems are to attack.

Cohen said: "There is a gap between Israel's excellent cyber defenses on critical infrastructure compared to non-critical civilian systems."

"This was not the first cyberattack to demonstrate the gap and there must be increased awareness of the fact in order to protect Israel's networks."

Iran will continue to try to attack soft and weak Israeli targets.  It is a big emotional victory for Iranian leadership as they think that Israel is vulnerable. 

For that reason alone, these soft targets must be hardened.

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Saudis Don't Fly US Flag
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Adir Ynako, the YNET reporter Adir Ynako covering US President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia arrived in the Gulf State several days ahead of the president.

This reporter’s descriptions of Jeddah were powerful - especially on his second day in the city when he decided to tell people in a shopping mall that he was from Israel.

For most of the people he broached the subject with, that little tidbit of information turned into a great big conversation stopper. In other words, Saudi leadership might be inching toward normalization with Israel but the masses are not there yet.

Yanko also pointed out that, in the lead up to Biden’s arrival in Jeddah there were no United States flags to be seen.  There was no fanfare… no pomp… and certainly no circumstance.  Compare that to Jerusalem where there were not only flags upon flags flying – the flags were ironed before they were displayed.

In fact, Ynako pointed out, vendors at the mall did not even know that the US president was due to arrive in their country. 

That observation was significantly telling. 

Giving an Israeli journalist tourist a cold shoulder was to be expected.  But not knowing about, not promoting the arrival of the president of the United States, is a negative statement. 

It was a major, intentional, diplomatic dis.

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Iran PLay Muke Games
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is playing the nuclear enrichment game.

Iranian and Western press are reporting that Iran is not just enriching uranium, they are increasing their uranium enrichment.

Iranians are using more advanced machines to achieve their enrichment goals. It is happening at Fordow, Iran’s underground under-ground nuclear facility. The reports describe that in Fordow, as opposed to their other nuclear facilities, Iran can more easily change between enrichment levels.

Changing between enrichment levels means increasing enrichment levels.

The IAEA, the atomic watchdog of the United Nations, has reported on Iran’s new nuclear status and the Iranian press has verified the report.

Western diplomats and the IAEA have been concerned about these advanced devices and the goings-on at Fordow for a very long time. With these centrifuges, so-called modified sub-headers means, Iran can switch more quickly and easily from enriching uranium at acceptable levels to higher purity levels – all it takes is a quick moment.

Iran is required to inform the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, about any change in enrichment. But Iran, as we all know, does not believe in being compliant.   

Iran does not play by the rules.


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Israel Will Strike Iean
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Yair Lapid recent announced that Israel maintains freedom of action against Iran's nuclear program.

During his remarks at the opening of the weekly Cabinet meeting, Lapid did not mince words when he said: "Israel reserves political and military freedom of action in fighting the Iranian nuclear program."
In that same meeting Israel’s caretaker prime minister also appealed to Middle

Eastern Sunni Muslim countries to engage in steps of rapprochement with Israel. Speaking for their benefit he said: "Israel extends a hand to the countries of the region and calls to change history for the sake of our children."

Israel is issuing their message loudly and clearly and for everyone to hear. Iran is the most significant threat to regional stability and all nation in the region should join forces to prevent them from attaining nuclear capabilities - especially nuclear weapons.

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Israel Ask for Flight to Saudia
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

srael's regional cooperation minister has asked Saudi Arabia to allow direct flights from Tel Aviv to Riyadh for Muslim pilgrims.

Israeli officials have also been seeking expanded permission for their airlines to fly over Saudi soil to better reach Asian destinations.

A person in Washington who was familiar with the matter said the new aviation deals sought by Israel could be announced around the time of Biden's visit, but that details still needed to be worked out and may not be completed in time.

Israel’s Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Freij is a member of Israel’s 18% Muslim minority.  Speaking as both a Muslim and a member of government, he said: "I want to see the day when I can depart from Ben-Gurion (airport near Tel Aviv) to Jeddah to fulfil my religious obligation" of pilgrimage to Mecca.”

"I took this matter up with Saudi Arabia and I really hope that day will come," he told Israel's Army Radio, without expanding on where or when such discussions took place.

Saudi Arabia has long admitted Muslim pilgrims from Israel, but they must travel through third-party countries to get there. That ends up costing around $11,500 for a week-long stay, Freij said. Pilgrims from neighboring Arab countries pay around half that much for their travel.

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Russia Bombs Oil Tanker
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A Russian missile hit a tanker that has been drifting in the Black Sea for over four months carrying diesel. 

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported the hit, citing Ukraine's military which called the ship an "ecological bomb".

The Moldova-flagged tanker Millennial Spirit has now been struck by Russia twice since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24th.

It was first hit with a missile fired from a warship mere days after the invasion began. At the time Moldova claimed that the ship had a Russian crew and that two crew members were seriously wounded.

Hitting a tanker and causing a spill could result in one of the most serious environmental disasters in decades. But it does not surprise me that Russia would be so cavalier about ecology. 

The West should have stepped in immediately, grabbed that tanker and offloaded the diesel. Now, it might be too late.  

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ISIS Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is on the attack - and ISIS is succeeding in the mission. 

They are striking sites, especially prisons, and freeing hundreds of their captured commanders and soldiers.

ISIS claimed responsibility for a raid on a Nigerian prison in the capital city Abuja.  The raid freed around ISIS 440 inmates.  These former inmates are now fighters and they will join other fighting groups. 

ISIS is gaining strength.

Shuaib Belgore, permanent secretary of the Nigerian interior ministry, spoke to journalists gathered outside the Abuja prison.  He told them that the prison houses 900 inmates and that one security officer was killed during the raid and three others were injured.

A total of 879 inmates fled, according to a statement released by the Nigerian prison service. 4 inmates were killed and 16 were injured. 443 are still at large.  The remainder have been recaptured.

The 443 unaccounted for inmates have almost certainly escaped with ISIS.  That was, after all, the purpose of the attack.

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Israelis at Tour de France
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s cycling team is making Tour de France headlines.

Simon Clarke, an Israeli cyclist and team member, won Stage Five in the Tour de France.  This is the first time an Israeli team member has ever won any segment of the Tour de France. Clark pulled out the win in the final 50 meters of this portion of the competition.

The name of the team is Israel–Premier Tech.  Originally called Team Israel Start-Up Nation, it was established in 2014 and joined the World Tour in 2019. The team competed in the 2020 Tour de France, and has now partnered with the Canadian company Premier Tech for the 2022 season, renamed Israel Premier Tech. 

The team roster consists of eight riders, including Guy Niv, an Israeli. A second Israeli rider, Omer Goldstein, was scheduled to compete but was forced to give up his place after exposure to Covid. He was replaced with Canadian Guillaume Boivin. 

The Tour de France is a world renowned bicycle race that covers 2,000 miles in 23 days. 

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Abraham Accords
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Abraham Accords are changing the modus operandi, the way things work, in the Middle East.

Israel and Morocco normalized relations in late 2020 as part of the US brokered Abraham Accords.

And for the first time ever, Israeli defense officials took part in a military exercise in Morocco.  The drill was called African Lion 2022.   

Israel sent a very modest delegation to Morocco.  No troops participated, instead, there were high level observers. Three representatives of the IDF and the Defense Ministry watched the military drill.

The event was coordinated and led jointly by the African Command of the United States Army and the Royal Army in Morocco.

This is a very important step for Morocco.  It will pave the way for many more coordinated activities way beyond military maneuvers.

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Hezbollah's Drone
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah sent the three low flying drones toward Israel’s natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea. 

Israel shot them down.

Hezbollah was sending a series of messages. 

# 1: Hezbollah argues that these rigs are in Lebanese waters - not Israeli waters.  And Hezbollah wants Lebanon to make the claim to the United States. 

# 2: Hezbollah also wanted to let Israel know that their gas rigs are vulnerable. 

# 3: Hezbollah was delivering a message from Iran. Iran wanted Israel to know that they have a far reach and can hit Israeli targets.   

The drones were all shot down miles from the rigs.  One was shot down by an Israeli air force fighter jet.  The second was shot down by an Israeli navy Corvette.  The third drone was downed by a Barak-1 surface to air missile known as a SAM.

The drones did not explode when hit which indicated that they were not carrying explosives.  Rather than destroy the rigs, their mission was to take pictures that would be used to embarrass Israel and to show the vulnerability of the precious natural gas rigs.

Hezbollah’s/Iran’s plans backfired.

Israel’s defenses were 100% on target.

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Russia's New Iron Curtain
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia is once again lowering the “Iron Curtain.” They are creating a massive wall between them and the West.

Speaking at a press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained the separation between Russia and the West this way: "It's practically already coming into place. Let them just behave carefully.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, Russia has been a pariah state.
Moscow has been isolated by the rest of the world. In response, Russia is proactively responding to the distancing by creating a distance on their own.

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Biden Tweets Congrats to New Israeli PM
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

US President Joe Biden congratulated Yair Lapid as he assumed his new position as the new prime minister of Israel.

The blessing came in the form of a tweet in which President Biden spoke of the strong the relationship between the countries . 

The new Israeli prime minister responded with a tweet of his own.  In his tweet, Lapid wrote: "Thank you, Mr. President. The ties between Israel and the United States are unbreakable. They are based on deep foundations of shared values and a common vision for the future.”

"I look forward to welcoming you to Israel and strengthening the unique alliance between the U.S. and Israel."

Times have certainly changed.  Heads of state tweeting congratulations to each other is not what I would have imagined – especially in this case. 

Biden and Lapid are not strangers to each other, they have actually developed a bond.  I would have expected that the president would have picked up the phone and called the prime minister, not merely send a tweet.  

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Israel Meets w Arab Army Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A report has just been leaked about a secret meeting between senior Arab military leaders and Israel’s IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi who all met in Sharm el Sheik in March. 

It was convened to discuss countering regional threats posed by Iran.

Details of the meeting, which was sponsored by the United States, were reported by The Wall Street Journal.   

Then-head of Central Command, Gen. Frank McKenzie, brought together the top military commanders from Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan.  Included in the group was Saudi Arabia’s Chief of Staff Gen. Fayyadh bin Hamed Al Ruwaili.

Two important notes are that while the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also sent officers to the meeting, they did NOT send their military chiefs.  And Kuwait and Oman did NOT participate at all.

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Qatar to Host Iran Nuke Talks
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that Qatar will host indirect talks between Iran and the United States.  Their topic will be the revival of Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

The announcement was made by Mohammad Marandi, a media adviser to the Iranian nuclear team. Speaking to the semi-official ISNA news agency, Marandi said: "Iran chose Qatar to host because it is our friend.”

This is a major step forward in the negotiations over revitalizing the stalled talks around the Nuke Deal.

It is also important to note that this move places Qatar in a pivotal role not just in this one case, but as a serious player in the entire Middle East.

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Israel Unites Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that all arms of the defense establishment were working in tandem to oppose the threat of a nuclear Iran,

Gantz made his point in response to reports that have begun to surface about disagreements between the military and intelligence agencies.  

Benny Gantz said: "The defense establishment is dealing with the Iranian threat day and night as the most important and urgent strategic issue currently for Israel's security. This is done in coordination between all the security arms and with freedom of opinion while the political echelon makes the decision."

This is important given that the European Union announced that world powers and Iran have decided to restart the long-stalled talks on the revival of Tehran's nuclear program.

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Kyiv to drop free-visa w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ukriane is extremely unhappy with Israel.

So much so, that Kyiv is considering suspending its visa-free agreement with Israel.  They are peeved about Israel's policy on Ukrainian refugees.

Ukrainian ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk told Israeli Russian-language news Detaly that Israel is not playing fair.  This is what he said:

"Russian citizens enter Israel without restrictions, Belarusian citizens as well, and Ukrainian citizens have invented electronic visas. "Neither I nor my management can help but take it painfully."

"We are now considering whether to suspend the visa-free regime for Israelis in response. It will be imperceptible now, but before Rosh Hashanah, the Israeli government will feel it."

The ambassador was referring to the pilgrimage of religious Jews who flock to Uman during the High Holy Days.

All the way back in March Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Chief-of-Staff Andriy Yermak made the same threat.  He called the electronic permit system "an unfriendly step for the citizens of Ukraine."

Korniychuk also expressed disappointment with Israel's stance on the Russian invasion, saying Ukraine "expects [any form of] help from our partners... but do not sit on the shore waiting for someone to start winning."

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Fake Gaza Village in IDF Base
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has built a fake Gaza city in the middle of a military base named Zeelim, located in the Negev Desert, in the south of Israel.

Even the muezzin, the Muslim call to prayer, is sounded five times a day in this fake city.

Other than members of the IDF, the city is deserted.

This Israeli built fake city cannot be found on any map. Officially, it’s known as the Urban Warfare Training Center. Israeli soldiers who run military drills call it “Mini Gaza.”

The IDF began building Mini Gaza in 2005 at a cost of $45 million.

According to the facility’s commander, Col. Eli Abeles: “The nature of war has changed … Today our principal fighting … is done around built-up areas and in built-up areas.”

The tight alleyways, drab concrete buildings and open areas in the roughly 60-acre (quarter square kilometer) facility are meant to simulate the urban environments in which Israel’s soldiers often operate.

The IDF has an official graffiti artist who decorated the buildings with murals featuring Arabic slogans and portraits of Palestinian and Lebanese militants.

Between exercises, soldiers rest in the shade of the 500 buildings Israel has built, the tallest being eight stories high. They smoke cigarettes beneath faded posters, some of which honor those Palestinian fighters killed in battle with Israel. Other soldiers don red-and-white checkered scarves to role-play militants in an upcoming drill.

The training center can accommodate exercises for an entire brigade of 2,000 soldiers at a single time. Visiting American troops and forces from European allies — most recently Cypriot soldiers — have also trained in Mini Gaza.

This fake city is as realistic as you can get.

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Zelenskyy Castigates Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 24, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the Israeli government is still not offering his country sufficient support since the Russian invasion of his country.

"We will in future have to look into each others' eyes," he said - but then added that the support of Israeli people was noted and appreciated.

Zelenskyy spoke via Zoom to an audience at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.  It was his second speech to Israelis.  The first was his address to Knesset members in March.

At Hebrew University the Ukrainian president said: "On Friday we will mark four months since the Russians invaded Ukraine and Moscow declared war against Kyiv."

"I think you have all witnessed what a tragedy it is, but nevertheless I'm sure we will prevail and win."

Zelenskyy called Russia a "terror state" and said that Russia continues its indiscriminate shelling of both Ukrainian military and civilians.

He said: "They attack and destroy our cities, and they burn everything in their path.  Some 2000 educational institutions have already [been] destroyed in Ukraine. What kind of country intentionally bombards kindergartens?"

The Ukrainian president said that there was virtually nothing left of Mariupol after heavy Russian artillery bombardments. He said: "Four months ago, half of million people lived in the city. Now, only a few tens of thousands are left. The Russians shoot people all across Ukraine, they torture them, and they rape minors - boys and girls."

"The Ukrainian people are grateful to the Israeli people for waving our national flag on the streets, and we appreciate the gesture very much. We thank the Israeli people, but we also ask for the support of your government."

"Luxembourg, with a population of some 600,000 people, provided us defensive aid equal to 15% of their defense budget. But what about Israel? We understand this is not an easy situation but we would like to see greater support."

Zelenskyy went on to say that, while it has not yet happened, he expects Israel to join the sanctions imposed by the West. In his words: "Unfortunately, we haven't seen Israel joining yet."

Meanwhile, Israel reopened its embassy in Kyiv for a few days in order to provide consular services.  Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky explained the move saying that “an Israeli diplomatic presence in Kyiv is very important and it is another sign of Israel’s support for Ukraine.”

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Iran & Russia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Both Iran and Russia are in the world’s doghouse.  They both have international sanctions against them.

And so, Iran and Russia need to bond and to work together.

According to Tass, Russia’s official news agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid an official visit to Iran. The news agency did not go into detail about the visit.     

Last month Moscow announced that Russia and Iran - which sit on some of the world's largest oil reserves - had discussed swapping supplies for oil and gas.  They also discussed setting up a logistics hub.

These are events we need to carefully monitor and follow.

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Israel & Turkey Work Together
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Turkey are working very closely on security – and, thankfully, it is paying off.

Turkish media is reporting that Turkey has thwarted several attacks on Israeli targets in Istanbul.

According to the reports, Iranian operatives were monitoring Israeli political figures and tourists for some time.  The Iranians were planning a combined shooting and abduction attack. One such target, reports claim, was a former Israeli ambassador and his wife who were staying at a hotel in the city's Beyoğlu district.

Israel’s Mossad is in constant contact with Turkish intel.  They have mutual goals.  Turkey does not want terror attacks on their soil - not even terrorist attacks against Israel.

It’s not good optics.

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Russian Denied Fly Overs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Serbia and Russia confirmed that a planned visit by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to the Balkan country will not take place.  Moscow is accusing the West of preventing the trip by blocking the envoy's flight.

The announcement followed reports that Serbia's neighbors Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro, had refused to allow Sergey Lavrov's plane to fly through their airspace to reach Serbia.

During an online news conference Lavrov said: "An unthinkable thing has happened. A sovereign state has been deprived of its right to conduct foreign policies. The international activities of Serbia on the Russian track have been blocked."

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met with Russia's ambassador to Serbia who informed him that Lavrov could not come because the Russian government plane was denied necessary flyover permissions.

Montenegro, Bulgaria and North Macedonia are all members of NATO.  And Lavrov blamed NATO countries for engineering the flight ban.  He noted that the action showed once again that the main purpose of the alliance’s expansion is to try to isolate Russia.

For his part, the Russian foreign minister said that the West has trampled on the principle of a free choice of foreign policy partners.

Serbia, meanwhile, is almost fully dependent on Russia for gas. Serbian President Vucic recently talked to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone to arrange a new deal for gas supplies over the next three years.

It’s not just about obtaining the gas. Analyst Slobodan Stupar described Lavrov's attempted visit to Belgrade as a "show" that would have been used by Moscow to further vilify the West.

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Polls Show No Winner
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 20, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

According to an early opinion poll, neither of the large blocs in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, will get a majority of the 61 seats necessary to form a stable government.

The poll was conducted by 103FM.  It was conducted following the announcement by the ruling coalition to vote on dissolving the Knesset. 

Yair Lapid, Israel’s Foreign Minister, would replace Naftali Bennett as prime minister until the new election which is scheduled for October 25th.

According to the 103FM poll, the Bennett-Lapid bloc can count on 55 seats.  And the right-wing bloc, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is predicted to get 59 seats.  There are 120 seats in the Knesset. 

Looking at it party be party, rather than by multi-party coalitions, Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to receive 36 seats, while Lapid’s Yesh Atid party is predicted to get 20 seats. Outgoing Prime Minister Bennett’s Yamina party is predicted to gain back seats raising their number to seven.

The poll also indicates increased support for the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir with 10 predicted seats. Blue and White led by Israel’s Defense minister Benny Gantz will, according to the poll, retain their eight seats, while Israel’s Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party is expected to lose two seats ending up with only five.

According to the poll, the Labor Party and the Joint List are predicted to get seven and six seats respectively. Ra’am and New Hope are predicted to receive a minimum of four seats each.

Former Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who served as Israel's longest-serving prime minister, said he intends to form “a strong, forceful” alternative government. He is gearing up for the October 25th election.
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Israeli Gov Falls
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 19, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Even as he spoke about making great efforts to stabilize his ramshackle coalition and keep the government afloat, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had already made up his mind to dissolve the Knesset and pass the premiership to Foreign Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

Bennett’s mind was made up following a conversation he had with Attorney General Gali Baharav Miyara.  During that conversation the then-prime minister attempted to understand the coalition's maneuverability.  He tried to figure out if the contentious West Bank bill - extending Israel's authority over the West Bank settlements - could be implemented despite not being approved by the Knesset.

The coalition's failure to approve the West Bank Bill in the Knesset came as a blow to the government.  As a result, following that dramatic vote, Bennett’s government was split.

The attorney general made it clear to Bennett that no legal evasive action can overcome the failure to pass the legislation. The only way to extend the regulations without a majority in the Knesset is to dissolve the government before the end of June, which would result in an automatic extension of the bill.

Once Bennett finished the conversation with the attorney general, his next call was to his wife Gilat. In that phone call he confided that he can no longer remain in position as prime minister.

Rather than watching his government get humiliated over and over again, he would rather put an end to it by himself.

And so he did.

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Hamas & Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 18, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The terror group Hamas is restoring ties with Syria. 

The relationship between Hamas and Syria broke off ten years ago.  That was when Syrian President Bashar Assad cracked down against the revolt to oust him.

One official, who asked not to be named, spoke about the reconciliation and said that, of late, the two sides have held several "high-profile meetings to achieve that goal."

Hamas supported the revolt against Assad which began in 2011. Its goal was to overthrow Assad. 

At that time, Iran supported Assad and Hamas shunned Iran – but only temporarily.

Hamas' ties with Iran were quickly restored. And Hamas was quick to praise Iran for helping rebuild their arsenal in Gaza.  The arsenal consisted of long-range rockets, used to attack Israel.

One year after its 11-day war with Israel, Hamas is shifting its strategy. The terror group is now adopting a strategy known as “load distribution”.  They no longer focus all their hatred on Israel.  They are calling on Palestinians in the West Bank to continue the fight against Israel while reaching out to as many supporters as possible to join them in their struggle.

15 years ago Hamas took control of Gaza in a coup expelling the Palestinian Authority. While it is an internal Palestinian conflict, this conflict continues to have major implications for the region - especially Israel.

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Iran Will Try to Attack Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Former chief of Israeli military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, has been very vocal about Iran.  He made it very clear that Iran would exact revenge for attacks on its soil, attacks attributed to Israel.

In an interview on Ynet, Yadlin slammed Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for announcing a new Israeli strategy on Iran, and said obscurity is a better policy.

He and many others assert that Iran is already planning actions against Israelis. He further said that Iran is attempting to carry out attacks against Israel and Israelis.

I agree 100%. Israelis and Jews must be very careful now and until this threat diminishes.

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Iran Attempts Sat Launch
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

We must carefully monitor and scrutinize the Iranian space program. 

Why? Because the same technology that is used for space launches is used for non-conventional weapons launches like nuclear and chemical bombs. 

Iran appeared to be readying for a space launch recently as satellite images showed a rocket on a rural desert launch pad.  This satellite sighting came as tensions remain high over Tehran's nuclear program.

The images from Maxar Technologies showed a launch pad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran's rural Semnan province.  We have seen many failed launches from this site.

One set of images showed a rocket on a transporter, preparing to be lifted and put on a launch tower. A later image showed the rocket apparently on the tower.

Iran did not acknowledge a forthcoming launch at the spaceport at its mission to the United Nations.  That is not surprising.

The Iranians are very secretive about their launches.

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Suing Ben & Jerry's
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Unilever is being sued by a group of U.S. shareholders who believe that the company mishandled the decision by its Ben & Jerry's unit to stop selling ice cream in the Israeli-West Bank.

According to the proposed class action suit filed in Manhattan federal court, Unilever improperly concealed the decision before it was announced, recognizing that many U.S. states might divest from companies that support anti-Israel boycotts, yet stood behind it once the news became public.

To refresh your memory, last July Ben & Jerry's announced that it would stop selling its products in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and parts of East Jerusalem.  Ben and Jerry’s then stopped a three-decade-long relationship with the local Israeli company that was making the ice cream.

According to the official complaint: "As a result of defendants' wrongful acts and omissions, and the declines in the market value of Unilever, plaintiff and other class members have suffered significant losses and damages."

I think this case has merit.

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Russia Summons Israeli Amb
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Ambassador to Russia, Alexander Ben-Zvi, was summoned by Russia’s foreign ministry.  Ambassador Ben-Zvi to clarify the how and why there was an airstrike on Damascus International Airport. 

Everyone had concluded Israel was behind the strike.

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry explained that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikahil Bogdanov had expressed to Ben-Zvi Moscow's deep concern regarding the attack, which, the Russians said, had damaged the airport's runway, navigation systems and buildings, and caused damage to international air traffic.

The ministry also stated that the attack had disrupted the inflow of humanitarian aid from the United Nations to millions of Syrians in a country ravaged by over a decade of civil war.

Bogdanov told Ben-Zvi that the explanations Jerusalem provided so far did not satisfy the Kremlin and that Moscow would not allow Syria to become the "battlefield" of other countries as Syria helps in fighting terrorism across the region.

Everyone has their own perspective.

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Israel to Sell Gas to EU
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Energy is a very big issue - especially in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Europe is highly reliant on Russia for oil and natural gas, that should be perfectly clear to everyone.  Europe is in trouble – but hope is on the horizon.

Israel is coming to the rescue. 

Israel is now an exporter of natural gas.  And, according to the Israeli Energy Minister, Israel and the European Union will sign a natural gas export deal.

According to the EU, Israel could be a new source of gas as EU nations look to reduce their reliance on Russian energy.

Originally, Israel was content being a regional supplier.  They have already signed natural gas deals with Egypt and Jordan.  Now that they are expanding to Europe, Israel will need to transform their natural gas to LNG, Liquified Natural Gas, and ship it on special ships across the Mediterranean.

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Norway Labels Items West Bank
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Norway has decided that all products imported from the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Height will be labelled as being produced in the West Bank.

All products.

The Norwegian government claims to have very good relations with Israel and explains that they are following a 2019 European Union Court decision.  According to the decision Norway is referencing, people should have the knowledge of where something was produced before making purchases.

Israel is extremely displeased by this new decision by Norway. 

Israel’s Foreign Ministry released a statement that reads: “This is a decision that will not contribute to the promotion of Israeli-Palestinian relations”.

“It will adversely affect the bilateral relations between Israel and Norway and impact the relevance of Norway’s role in the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian relations."

It is important to note that the EU court has ruled that countries cannot boycott products form the West Bank.

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Maduro Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro recently visited Iran.  There are not too many heads of state running to visit Iran these days.

Iran and Venezuela recently signed a 20-year cooperation plan, according to live coverage on Iranian state TV.

The signing ceremony was held in North Tehran's Saadabad Palace in the presence of visiting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi.

The plan includes cooperation in the fields of oil, petrochemicals, tourism, and culture.

These two nations will continue to expand their ties.  They will focus on their economic growth, energy and technology fields.

Both Iran and Venezuela are under serious international scrutiny and sanctions - especially from the United States.

That pressure coupled with sanctions is one of the powerful forces uniting Iran and Venezuela.  They are bound by a mutual hatred and disdain for the United States.

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Biden To Re-Open Jerusalem Consulate
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Despite protestations from Jerusalem, the Biden Administration is committed to moving towards re-opening a US Consulate in Jerusalem.

The Biden team has made the announcement and has sent diplomats to speak to Palestinian leadership.

This flurry of activity is a lead up to the President of the United States’ visit to Jerusalem and Ramallah.

Additionally, the US office responsible for diplomatic relations with the Palestinians has been renamed. Once called The Palestinian Affairs Unit, the office has now been renamed the US Office of Palestinian Affairs.

According to the official US statement, the new name is meant to "strengthen our diplomatic reporting and public diplomacy engagement."

It read "We felt that it was important to reintroduce separate reporting lines to Washington on Israeli and Palestinian issues, by our respective teams on the ground that focus on these issues.”

Before it was closed, the US Consulate in Jerusalem functioned as a de facto embassy for the Palestinians that reported directly to the State Department.
This change in name is significant. What was once a “unit” is now an “office”. In the parlance of Washington DC bureaucracy, that is a very big step up.

Israel is still pushing back against this change in US policy and suggesting that the United States open their Palestinian Consulate in Ramallah which is the seat of the PA government. The US has countered saying it is not a change, rather it is a return to a previous policy.

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Iran Turns Off Cameras
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is playing a nuclear game --- Again.

Iran turned off two surveillance cameras that were installed to monitor their nuclear activity. 

The cameras had been installed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), the United Nations' nuclear watchdog group, that was monitoring one of Iran’s atomic sites.

It was Iranian TV that reported the incident – but it did not report the nuclear plant’s location.

According to the state TV report: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has so far had extensive cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency … Unfortunately, the agency, without considering this cooperation … not only did not appreciate this cooperation, but also considered it as a duty of Iran."

Iran has been withholding footage from IAEA surveillance cameras since February of 2021 as a pressure tactic to restore the atomic accord.

Israeli Prime Minster Naftali Bennett has made it very clear that Israel will not let Iran cross the threshold and become a nuclear power with nuclear weapons: 

Bennett said: "Israel is operating against the many tentacles of Iranian terror, not only as it has done in past decades. The days of Iran having immunity when it strikes against Israel and spreads its terrorism via proxies, are gone. We are operating everywhere and all the time and will continue to do so.”

"In recent years Iran has crossed red lines, especially last April, months before this government came to power, when it began enriching uranium to 60% with no international response … Israel cannot and will not accept such a situation."

And then Bennett added: "We expect the IAEA Board of Governors will issue a clear warning sign before the regime in Tehran and make clear that if they continue their defiant nuclear policy, they will pay a heavy price."

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Ukraine Demands Israel's Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ukraine is again asking Israel for one of their most secret weapons.  This time it’s the “Iron Dome.”

Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, confirmed that his government had made the request for an Iron Dome missile defense system.

Speaking at a press conference, the Ukrainian ambassador said: "We must defend our citizens just as Israel defends its own against the Hamas.”

Korniychuk complained that only 10% of the protected gear Israel committed to supply Ukraine have been delivered and that Jerusalem has refused to allow wounded Ukrainian soldiers, in need of prosthesis, to enter Israel for treatment.

He said: "Israel remains inside its comfort zone … Jerusalem must decide if it will stand with the just and democratic countries of the world."

There is no way Israel will deliver the Iron Dome, which triangulates and plots an incoming missile and then shoots a supersonic rocket to intercept it, to Ukraine.

When Israel brought plans for the Iron Dome to the US Defense Department, hoping to partner in its development, the Defense Department said it was impossible to create that missile defense system.  How wrong they were.

These weapons could easily fall into the hands of Israel’s enemies and Israel will not let that happen. Not for Ukraine, not for anyone.  

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Turkey Plans For Attack
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

It appears that Turkey is preparing for an offensive attack into Syria to strike Kurdish enclaves located there.

So now Russia and Syria are bolstering the border between Turkey and Syria to help prevent that attack from happening.

Turkey already controls a 20 mile buffer zone which they set up in Syria.  The buffer zone’s purpose is to protect the Turkish border from potential Kurdish attacks and cross border strikes.

And now the Turks want to expand their “safe zone” and move it toward the regions of Tal Rifaat and Manbij and several other areas further east.

Russia, which warned Turkey against military escalation in northern Syria, sent Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for talks in Ankara to make the message clear.

Did Erdogan receive the message?  We will soon find out.

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Ukraine Says Russia Stealing Grain
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

In a scathing attack, Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara, said that Turkey is among the countries buying grain that Russia – grain that was stolen from Ukraine.

Ukraine is now seeking help from Turkish authorities and Interpol is launching an investigation to determine who exactly is involved with the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters.

Over the past month reports have emerged accusing Russia of stealing Ukrainian grain.

Russia and Ukraine are two of the world's biggest grain exporters, but the ongoing war has stopped many of these shipments from leaving the Black Sea.

According to a local newspaper, Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko indicated that Belarus was ready to discuss the transport of Ukraine's grain via Belarus, “but there must be compromises."

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry asserts that several grain shipments were being shipped to Syria via Russian cargo ships. Several trucks were also sent to Russia and around 1,500 tons of grain were exported to Crimea from the Kherson Oblast.

A Russian ship loaded with grain had also headed to Egypt, but Cairo had refused to accept it and turned it away. Egypt is one of the world's largest wheat importers and usually imports large volumes of Black Sea wheat.

Russia has denied all accusations of stealing Ukrainian wheat. And Russian officials have recently promised to ensure the passage of vital Ukrainian food exports through the Black Sea in exchange for the end of sanctions against them. 

"We call on our friends, the African Union, to persistently demand that the West lift illegal unilateral sanctions that undermine the transport and logistics infrastructure necessary for world trade,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said according to Interfax.

Lavrov also noted the vulnerability of  African countries in terms of food security.

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Microsoft Catches iran Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Microsoft announced that it detected and took down an Iran-linked, Lebanese, hacking group that had targeted more than 20 Israeli organizations and one intergovernmental organization over the past three months.

The group, knowns as Polonium, which was tracked by Microsoft's Threat Intelligence Center (MSTIC), abused OneDrive cloud storage for command and control (C2) as they attacked Israel.

Up until now Polonium had gone undetected.

Microsoft indicated that MSTIC assessed with high confidence, that POLONIUM is Lebanon-based, and also indicated that it could rule with "moderate confidence" that the observed activity was coordinated with Iran's intelligence and security ministry.

The Microsoft statement reads: "MSTIC assesses with moderate confidence that the observed activity was coordinated with other actors affiliated with Iran's intelligence and security ministry"

Polonium created and used legitimate OneDrive accounts, then used those accounts as part of their attack operation.

In response to this hack, Microsoft suspended more than 20 malicious OneDrive applications created by Polonium and told the targeted organizations of the attacks.

According to Microsoft, Polonium primarily targeted Israeli organizations which specialize in critical manufacturing and IT, along with major organizations in Israel's defense industry.

Microsoft has, in the recent past, identified and disabled several Iranian-linked attacks on Israeli companies.

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Russia Thanks Israel& Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian Deputy Chairman of their Security Council, thanked Israel and Turkey for helping negotiate between Russia and Ukraine and the West.

Of course, he also blamed Ukraine for all the problems resulting from this invasion.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Medvedev said: "Mediation is valuable not because there is simply an intermediary [but] because there is a platform for negotiations, and parties demonstrate a desire to negotiate," and then added that Ukraine prefers to continue fighting.

Yevgen Korniychuk, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel, also praised Israel for their help in mediating the conflict.  He said: "We are looking more for the Israeli diplomatic effort, as an intermediary … We always look to Israel as one of the most prominent possible intermediaries for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin."

Israel has close ties with both Russia and Ukraine, and is in a position where it can act as a trusted mediator.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has had numerous phone calls with Putin and with Zelenskyy. Bennett has even travelled to Russia to meet with Putin for face-to-face mediation.

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Iran's Nuke Plans
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The situation is heating up again vis a vis Iran and their nuclear plans.

Iranian state media has reported that Iranian leadership is promising an "immediate response" to any move against them by the United States and the European countries participating in the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

"Any political action by the United States and the three European countries in the agency (IAEA) will undoubtedly be met with a proportionate, effective, and immediate response from Iran," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was quoted as saying by state media.

Iranian media also reported that Amir-Abdollahian said that the head of the IAEA’s visit to Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, was in conflict with the agency's impartiality.

According to a draft resolution seen by the news agency Reuters, the United States, France, Britain, and Germany are pushing for the U.N. nuclear watchdog's Board of Governors to rebuke Iran for failing to answer longstanding questions on uranium traces at undeclared sites.

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50 Yrs after Munich
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Finally, 50 years after the Massacre of 11 Israeli Olympic athletes in Munich, Bavarian authorities say that they are releasing the unpublished files on the attack.  Or almost all the files.  All, “except for some confidential files.”

On September 5, 1992, PLO terrorists who called themselves Black September, broke into the Munich Olympic.  The terrorists murdered 11 Israeli athletes and then they escaped.  

Joachim Herrmann, the top security official in the southern German state, explained that Bavaria will no longer keep any files under wraps, but conceded that federal authorities might still hold confidential files.

The goal of Black September was the release of terrorists held in Israeli prisons and two comrades held in West German jails.

A failed attempt to free the hostages in Munich resulted in the death of all of the Israelis.

There are still so many unanswered questions about this terror attack. Hopefully the newly opened files will shed important light on this tragic episode in Olympic history.

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US to Re-Open Jerusalem Consulate
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

According to State Department spokesperson Ned Price, the Biden administration has announced that they are 100% committed to re-opening a U.S. consulate in Jerusalem and the administration is discussing the issue with Israelis and with Palestinians.

In May of 2018, then U.S. President Donald Trump moved Washington's embassy to Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.  That move resulted in the shutting down of a separate facility in the city that served as a consulate for Palestinians.

President Joe Biden, who defeated Trump in 2020, pledged to reopen the consulate, but no date has been set.

Israel has publicly opposed the Biden plan and suggested that if the United States is determined to re-open a consulate, it should be located outside Jerusalem, in the West Bank.

According to Price: "There are a number of steps that have to go into the reopening of any diplomatic facility. As you know, there are some shall we say unique sensitivities to this particular facility ... We are working through the issue with our Palestinian and Israeli partners."

The Times of Israel, citing unidentified U.S. and Palestinian officials, reported that in lieu of reopening the facility, Washington was planning to appoint the current top State Department diplomat for the region, Hady Amr, as a special envoy to the Palestinians.

Asked about The Times of Israel report, Price said he did not have any personnel announcements to make.

To be continued, this issue has not yet been resolved.

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Surinam to Move Embassy to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 31, 2022
I've Been Thinking:


Surinam has announced that they will be moving their embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem very soon.

Surinam’s foreign minister, Albert Ramdin, was in Jerusalem when he made the announcement in a joint press conference with Israeli foreign minister, Yair Lapid.

Several other countries have already moved or have promised to move their embassies to Jerusalem, the Israeli capital.

In May, Ecuador opened an Office of Innovation in Jerusalem which is seen as a first step to moving their embassy. 

Columbia opened an Office of Innovation in November of 2021.

Brazil and Honduras have trade offices in Jerusalem.

The US opened their embassy in Jerusalem in May of 2018.  

Guatemala moved their embassy to Jerusalem quickly after the United States made their move.

In June of 2021, Honduras opened its embassy in Jerusalem.  

Kosovo opened its embassy in March 2021.

And The Dominican Republic, Malawi, and Equatorial Guinea have announced their intentions to open embassies in Jerusalem.

Surinam and Israel established diplomatic relations in 1976.

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More Sanctions Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The US Treasury Department issued new sanctions against a list of Iranian, Turkish, Russian, Chinese, Emirati and Lebanese citizens and entities that it said were linked to an oil smuggling network that provided funds for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah.

The Treasury Department said the network was led by current and former Quds Force figures, "backed by senior levels of the Russian Federation government" and included Chinese companies and a former Afghan diplomat. According to the Treasury, this network had raised hundreds of millions of dollars for Iran's Quds Force and Tehran's Lebanese allies Hezbollah, and helped Tehran support proxy militant groups.

The Quds Force is the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and controls its allied militia abroad.

The Trump administration put the IRCG on the State Department list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) in 2019, the first time Washington formally labeled another nation’s military a terrorist group.

The Biden administration has been engaged in indirect talks to restart a 2015 deal former President Donald Trump abandoned, under which world powers lifted international financial sanctions on Tehran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

According to an official statement issued by US State Dept: "While the United States continues to seek a mutual return to full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we will strictly enforce sanctions on Iran’s illicit oil trade."

In a separate statement, referring to the Nuclear Deal, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: "While the United States continues to seek a mutual return to full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we will strictly enforce sanctions on Iran’s illicit oil trade."

And Ned Price, the State Department Spokesman said: "The signal that we are sending is that we're not going to tolerate the illicit activities of the Quds Force, of other Iranian proxies, terrorist groups that receive Iranian support."

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TAU Discovers Cure for Autism
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Tel Aviv University researchers announced that they have identified a previously unknown mechanism shared by mutations in two genes which are thought to cause autism, schizophrenia and certain other conditions.

Researchers also found that an existing experimental drug may be suitable for treating a range of rare syndromes caused by these mutations which impair brain functions.

Their new findings could lead to the development of effective treatments for some cases of autism, schizophrenia and neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s.

“Some cases of autism are caused by mutations in various genes,” said Prof. Illana Gozes from the Department of Human Molecular Genetics and Biochemistry at the Sackler Faculty of Medicine and the Sagol School of Neuroscience at Tel Aviv University. “Today we know of more than 100 genetic syndromes associated with autism, 10 of which are considered relatively common (though still extremely rare).”

The results of the study were published in the Molecular Psychiatry journal earlier this month.

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Turk FM Visits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Turkey’s Foreign Minister finished a 2-day visit to Israel. This was the first high level Turkish visit to Israel in 15 years. Relations between the two countries have been strained of late.

While in Israel, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with Israeli leadership and he also met with Palestinian leadership.

Israel’s foreign minister Yair Lapid spoke at a joint Israeli/Turkish press conference and said: "The goal is to form and expand economic and civil cooperation between our countries, and to leverage our two countries' comparative advantages regionally and globally, even during the pandemic, and even in times of political tension."

Lapid and Cavusoglu indicated that they would begin working on a new civil aviation agreement.

Turkey's foreign minister emphasized that normalizing ties with Israel will help efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Cavusoglu said that "working on a positive agenda can also help us to address our disagreements in a more constructive manner." And then he added that: “Communications between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Israeli counterpart helped calm tensions between Israel and the Palestinians in Jerusalem during Ramadan.”

Lapid agreed with Cavusoglu and said that the two countries "have always known how to return to dialogue and cooperation."

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Iran Guard Col Assassinated
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Thousands of Iranians came to pay their respect at the funeral of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodayari.

The IRGC Colonel was assassinated on Sunday, May 22nd, while driving on a small street outside his home in Tehran. At exactly 4 PM local time, two assassins on a motorcycle pulled up and shot him five times at point blank range. Their weapons had silencers.

Khodayari was the masterminded behind several successful terrorist acts against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world. Other attacks that he had planned were thwarted by Israel's intelligence agency Mossad.

He had also been smuggling materials into Syria and was charged with taking revenge on Israel for the assassination of another IRCG commander, Qasem Solameini, in 2020.

Khodayari was also responsible for planning terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India.

According to a report by the Iranian state-owned Tasnim news agency, two assailants on a motorcycle fired five rounds at Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodayari who was sitting in his car in the heart of the capital.

Fingers are pointing at the Mossad - which makes sense.

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Biden Says No to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

It has been reported that President Joe Biden has finalized his decision to keep Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the U.S. notorious terrorist blacklist.

According to a senior Western official, this decision by the president of the United States will further complicate international efforts to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Iran has maintained that removing the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, from the terror list is essential if progress is to be made on the now stalled nuclear talks.

Another person familiar with the situation said that President Biden conveyed his decision regarding the terrorist list during an April 24th phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.  This source added that the decision was conveyed as absolutely final and that the window for Iranian concessions had closed.

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13 UN Amb Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 25 , 2022
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13 UN ambassadors arrived in Israel on Tuesday at the invitation of Gilad Erdan, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations.  The trip was organized by both Ambassador Erdan and the UJA of NY.

The objective in putting together this 7-day trip is for these UN ambassadors to see the real Israel and after seeing Israel with their own eyes, their voting records in the United nations may turn more favorably towards Israel.    

The ambassadors will tour historic sites and sites of religious and cultural significance.  They will be taken to visits at the Western Wall, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre and the Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Museum.

They will meet with Israel’s senior leadership - President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.  They will visit several IDF bases across the country and engage in discussions with Israeli security officials.  As part of their visit, the 13 ambassadors will visit the sites where Gaza terrorists and Hezbollah have perpetrated attacks against Israel.

The emphasis of much of this trip will be mutual economic and security interests. 

The UN Ambassadors visiting Israel represent Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Estonia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tanzania, Benin, Burundi, Malawi, El Salvador, Panama and Mexico, a current member of the UN Security Council.

Israeli Ambassador Erdan said of this trip: "We're bringing the ambassadors to Israel to experience Israel's commitment to coexistence, freedom and equality first-hand."  The visitors to Israel will, he said get a "deeper understanding of Israel's reality and contributions to the international community”.

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New Hamas Tactics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 24 , 2022
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Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are hard at work preparing for their next attack and next war with Israel.

They are using three tactics to achieve their goals.

Tactic # 1 - digging new tunnels

Tactic # 2 - developing better drones

Tactic # 3 - expanding naval capacities

The newly dug tunnels that have been recently uncovered by the IDF reach the Israeli border, but don't cross it. In times of war, Hamas hopes to emerge out of the tunnels on the Gazan side, close to the partition fence, and then break through it.

IDF sources say that Hamas has added 1,000 rockets to its existing arsenal, since the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls last year. The big difference is that now Hamas is focusing on the quality, not quantity, of their drones and missiles. This new arsenal is more accurate and more sophisticated than their previously used weapons.

Hamas also has well trained drone teams that have not been targeted by Israel.

They are also smuggling equipment through the Gaza-Egypt border by disguising their cargo to look like civilian shipments. They are utilizing the shipments to manufacture larger and stronger engines for boats already used by Hamas naval commando units and to assemble explosive boats.

Hamas is becoming more adept at warfare.

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Jew Hatred in Hollywood
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 23 , 2022
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They call themselves GDL, the Goyim Defense League. Their aim is to draw attention to their hatred of Jews.

Over the weekend 3 members of the GDL pulled their truck into the Beverly Hilton and shouted ugly anti-Jewish expressions at hotel guests. Their truck was covered in anti-Jewish slogans and they shouted “The Nazis are coming!”. 2 members of the group were dressed as Nazis, the third wore a hat with fake sidelocks.

They were trying to intimidate hotel guests. The police were called/

Their website, Goyimtv’s, describes their vision this way: “All members of the community and wider society should be treated as equals with the same rights, regardless of their race, age, sex, religion, political beliefs, or any other immutable attribute or self assigned designation UNLESS YOU’RE A JEW or THE SHABBOS EQUIVALENT.”

The group’s major philosophy is called replacement theory. They believe that Jews will replace whites in the United States. It is one of their group mantras.

They believe that a cabal of political elites – often Jews – are trying to destroy white culture or race through mass migration of non-white peoples. That belief is often part of a narrative about “white genocide,” and is manifested in the slogan, “You will not replace us,” or “Jews will not replace us.”

This group is very small, but the Jew-hating sentiment is catching on and others are starting to repeat this hateful rhetoric.

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Israel Parade in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 22 , 2022
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Today New York City’s 5th Avenue was transformed into a celebration of love for Israel.

The 57th annual Salute to Israel Parade had 10’s of thousands of spectators as 10’s of thousands of marchers from schools, synagogues, youth groups, Jewish organizations, police, fire, ambulance heroes – all told over 40thousand, proudly strode down the avenue accompanied by marching bands and clowns on stilts – and of course, politicians.

After a three year hiatus, necessitated by Covid, the theme that was chosen for this year’s parade was, in English, Together Again. In Hebrew it was Kolannu b”Yachad, we are together.

The joy and love for Israel was palpable. An unabashed and proud lover pf Israel, I was in the reviewing stands and cheered as the marchers went by. I spoke to many JBS viewers who told me both how excited they were to attend the parade and how essential a part of their lives JBS is.

An electric celebration of 74 years of Israeli statehood and independence, marchers made their way from 57th Street all the way to 74th Street. How appropriate – the 57th Salute to Israel Parade began on 57th Street and ended on 74th Street – Israel’s 74th anniversary celebration.

When the parade first originated nearly 6 decades ago, marchers marched along Manhattan’s Riverside Drive.

Yesterday’s parade was all about Jewish pride.

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Fake Attack on Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 21 , 2022
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Israel is in the midst of the month long set of drills called Chariots of Fire. The country is preparing for any and all attacks they might have to, one day, face. This is the largest, most comprehensive drill in Israeli history.

A recent Chariots of Fire drill was an enactment of an attack on Tel Aviv. During the drill it was as if missiles, shot by Hezbollah, hit the center of downtown Tel Aviv and destroyed a building. Israel actually destroyed a real building in order to truly train the participants.

A senior officer, who could not be named, who is a high ranking member of the Home Front Command explained that:

"The goal was to practice complex scenarios which could occur in the future."

"In the next military conflict, we could experience more frequent and intense rocket fire, especially from Hezbollah, and the potential of more racially motivated riots across the entire country, after the May riots last year."

The IDF trained in 42 cities and towns, they trained in industrial areas across the country activating sirens in as many as 61 communities, as part of the drill.

All to be prepared for the inevitable.

One of their biggest fears for Israeli forces is that roads will be blocked by rioters and that will prevent rescue equipment from getting to sites and it will block medical teams form evacuating the wounded.

As part of the drill the IDF was trained on how to remove rioters and free up roads. The IDF will also use a completely different internet and communication system, so that it will be 100% reliable, during any crisis that might arise.

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Lag B'Omer 2022
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 20 , 2022
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Yesterday was Lag B’Omer.

The Jewish calendar counts a 50 full days, 7 full weeks, from Passover until Shavuot. It is called “counting the Omer”.

Lag B’Omer is the 33rd day of the Omer, in other words, it comes 33 days after the first day of Passover.

One year ago, in Israel, 45 people - men and children, were trampled to death on Lag B’Omer. It happened at Meron, where 100’s of thousands of people gather each year to pay tribute to Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai.

The 45 deaths were the results of overcrowding and poor planning. All of the dead were trampled to death.

This year, in response to last year’s tragedy, a plan and restrictions were put in place. Only those with tickets were permitted entry. They were asked to remain no more than four hours. The number of people at the gravesite of Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai was limited.

But the crowds did not follow the rules. And the grave site became overcrowded with 400 people where only 170 can safely fit.

And as the crowds got larger and reached the maximum - the Police stopped busses as they were getting off the highway causing traffic jams. Some people became unruly. They pulled down fences and cameras. It was getting out of hand.

The police ended the celebrations a few hours early. They managed to maintain control despite some difficult moments.

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5 Sand Cats Born in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 19 , 2022
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Sand Cats, also known as Sand Dune Cats, are an endangered species.

The Ramat Gan Safari had two Sand Cats - one male and the other a female. One feline came from France and the other from Sweden. The two-year old female just delivered 5 kittens.

According to the Safari staff, at first, the Europeans did not seem to get along. But as time went by they got closer, grew fond of each other and eventually mated.

All five of the newborn Sand Cats in the litter have survived. Often, only two kittens survive - so this is an exception. The mother is very protective of her newborns and barely lets the father come close.

There are less than 10,000 of these endangered cats in the wild and only 178 in zoos across the world. At one time there were Sand Cats in Israel, but with time they came extinct in the region. Now several zoos, like the Ramat Gan Safari, are taking part in efforts to boost the species' reproduction rate and to bring more Sand Cats to the world.

The Israeli-born kittens will eventually be transferred to zoos in Europe where they will, hopefully, continue to help the species' population increase.

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Huge Loss for Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 18 , 2022
I've Been Thinking:


There were elections in Lebanon - and Hezbollah turned out to be the big loser.

Final results are in, and Hezbollah has lost significant power.

Hezbollah won 31 seats in this election. In the last election they had only 29 seats. So how did they lose?

Here’s how:

Hezbollah’s partners from the past parliament lost significant seats in this election. Because of that Hezbollah, despite a gain of two seats, they lost power.

In bigger terms, this means that Hezbollah has lost control of the Lebanese parliament. It’s actually good news for everyone except Hezbollah.

I have been predicting this outcome for the past few months.

And that’s because, in Lebanon, for the past several months, we have witnessed numerous signs and signals that average citizens of Lebanon are expressing anger at Hezbollah. There were repeated claims that Hezbollah was putting the rest of Lebanon at serious risk. And they were shouting that Hezbollah’s priorities and Iran’s priorities are not Lebanon’s priorities.

They were publicly saying that Hezbollah keeps poking Israel and that when Israel strikes back, they hit at all Lebanese – not only Hezbollah.

And through their votes, they made their point. And they made their point loud and clear.

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Chariots of Fire- Drill
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 17 , 2022
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It’s called Operation Chariots of Fire. It is the largest military drill in the history of Israel.

“There won’t be a unit that doesn’t take part in this drill” explained IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen Ron Kochav.

Operation Chariots of Fire will involve multi-fronts and real-time decision making operations by political leaders and military general staff. Of course, thousands and thousands of soldiers will be involved.

Tensions in Israel are very high and getting higher with each successful and thwarted terrorist attack. This drill will involve ground, sea and air forces. While the IDF spokesman did not mention computers, the most important element in Chariots of Fire will be the high tech responses.

For Israel, the most important and dangerous front is now in the north. Hezbollah is in possession of 150,000 rockets and there needs to be a coordinated Israeli response in the event of an attack.

The stated purpose of the Operation Chariots of Fire is: “to improve cooperation between the IDF, government ministries, security organizations and civilian bodies, including their capabilities to transition from routine to a full emergency scenario with multiple areas that are constantly evolving.”

A multi-front attack is a realistic scenario. Israel needs to be prepared.


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1st Whale in Israeli Waters
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 15 , 2022
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A whale was recently sighted off the coast of Haifa. This is big news. It was the first whale ever spotted off the coast of Israel.

It was a massive sperm whale.

The sighting was photographed by a graduate student named Kim Kobo. And so the whale was given the name Kim, because was the first person to see it.

Kim, the grad student, was part of a group of marine scientists.

After spotting the whale, the marine scientists contacted colleagues in the hope of gaining information and they received conformation that this was the first sighting of this – or any whale in Israel ever.

They are now cataloguing the whale and identifying it thru scars and other indicators.

About her namesake, Kim Kobo said: "It's a nice feeling. It's especially exciting that I was part of this study. Most of our lab members have dolphins named after them… But I had the honor of having a sperm whale taking my name."

According to Dr. Aviad Scheinin, the Head Apex Predators Investigator at the University of Haifa’s Morris Kahn Marine Research said: "Sperm whales are on the verge of extinction in the Mediterranean and their population is in rapid decline.”

He added: “We hope that our discovery will show that the Haifa area serves as an important habitat for them. We hope that Kim will be the first on a long list of Israeli whales."

This is one whale of a story.

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Iran Targets US General
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 14 , 2022
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The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel’s Mossad interrupted a triple assassination attempt. The targets were a US general, an Israeli diplomat in Turkey and a journalist in France.

The Mossad arrested the 52 year old leader of the plot. Mansour Rasouli. in Iran and interrogated him. Rasouli gave up the details of the plan and his links with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He was later released.

Rasouli revealed that they were willing to pay contractors $1 million per hit.

In a British media outlet, Rasouli now claims that: “criminals abducted me … They put a bag over my head and took me to an unknown location … They told me they’d kill me and my family and tortured me severely. They told me I had to say everything they told me — that I was an emissary of the Revolutionary Guards and that I was sent to kill people in Europe and Turkey.”

There were a lot of credible details in the report Rasouli gave the Mossad.

The information sounds incredibly reasonable especially given that the United States spends $2 million per month protecting former secretary of State Mike Pompeo because of credible and actionable threats against his life.

Rasouli is working hard to protect himself from reprisal by the notorious Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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Value of Old Garbage
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Who knew garbage would be so informative?

The Nabataean–Roman ancient trading route connected the Mediterranean world with eastern and southern sources of incense, spices and other luxury goods, stretching from the Levant and Egypt through Northeastern Africa and Arabia to India and beyond.

The route was in use for 600 years, from 300 BCE to 300 CE.

Professor of Archaeology at the University of Haifa, Guy Bar-Oz, heads the study that excavated ancient rubbish which had accumulated at rest stations along the route. And he says that the research his group conducted did helps unveil new information about the trade route.

Prof. Bar-Oz explained that: "When examining the trade composition, three main trends are recognized: international trade with a central route to South East Asia; international trade that connected between sea sources - especially between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea; and local trade that acted as an 'economic belt' of the route and provided raw material and food for the merchants along the route."

The University of Haifa researchers pursued a strategy involving targeted, small-scale excavations at ancient middens or garbage dumps at caravanserai along the Petra–Gaza section of the route.

Rubbish deposits, rich in ash and organic remains, located on the outskirts of the archeological sites, enabled the researchers to illuminate aspects of the organization of desert trade, with wide implications for other ancient trade routes.

What great finds they uncovered.

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Shame on Lufthansa
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 11 , 2022
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Lufthansa has apologized for not allowing Jews on one of their flights.

In a statement, the CEO of the airline wrote that Lufthansa: “regrets the circumstances surrounding the decision to exclude the affected passengers from the flight.”

He went on to say that the airline regretted that: “the large group was denied boarding rather than limiting it to the non-compliant guests.”

What Lufthansa referred to as a “group” were 100-plus Hasidic Jews, many of whom did not know one another, flying to Hungary on a pilgrimage to the graves of renowned rabbis.

According to the passengers, they were not a group at all - most of the Jewish passengers were flying as individuals.

Lufthansa also apologized “not only for the inconvenience, but also for the offense caused and personal impact.”

Lufthansa management did not use the word “Jews” nor did they mention that the only passengers barred from travel were Jews and very Jewish looking Jews.

Airline employees spoke to that issue saying that it was Jewish people who had boarded a plane at JFK who were non-mask-compliant and hence, they were being punished.

During the flight from JFK the pilot admonished passengers and told them there would be consequences for not wearing a mask. And there were.

Shame on Lufthansa -- even the apology was insulting.

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World Leaders Beg Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 10 , 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Leaders from around the world are still attempting to convince Iran to come back to the negotiation table and sign on to a new nuclear agreement.

The European Union's Iran nuclear coordinator, Enrique Mora, is going to Tehran to meet Iranian negotiator Bagheri Kani.

On Twitter, Enrique Mora wrote: "Travelling again to Tehran for meetings with Bagheri Kani and other officials on the Vienna talks and other issues. Work on closing the remaining gaps of this negotiation continues."

Ali Shamkhani, the chair of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council, tweeted in Hebrew that nuclear talks were progressing and "were a sign that the strong government and its official ability to deal with the most important matters."

Shamkhani was, obviously, trying to bring home his point to one of the nuclear deal’s most outspoken naysayers

Mora has played a crucial role in facilitating the negotiations, given that Iran refuses to speak directly to America. He last traveled to Tehran in late March, before heading to Washington.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Mora would be "conveying messages" from the other signatories to Tehran during his trip.

One of Iran’s most outrageous demands is that Washington lift its terrorism designation from the Revolutionary Guard.

Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has grown increasingly critical of Iran's failure to cooperate and its refusal to explain the traces of radioactive material at several undeclared nuclear sites.

The IAEA’s head, Rafael Mariano Grossi, has repeatedly expressed his frustration with Iran. He is quoted as saying: "We, in the last few months, were able to identify traces of enriched uranium in places that have never been declared by Iran, so we are extremely concerned about this."

Grossi added that he was skeptical that officials could close a nuclear deal if the IAEA still had unanswered questions.

This is not over – and probably wont be over for a while.

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A/S in Antwerp
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 9, 2022
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It was right out of a comic book.

It took place in Antwerp, Belgium.

A man was attacking a Jew. The Jew was dressed in traditional Jewish garb. He had a beard, a fur hat, a long black coat and a white shirt.

The perpetrator shouted hateful anti-Jewish slurs and then lunged at the Jew. The Jew quickly responded taking down the bad guy.

The scene was filmed by someone watching from a balcony above the melee. The perpetrator was held on the ground by the victim while other people called the police.

The police came and arrested the perpetrator.

Attacks against Jews in Belgium are commonplace. They have been on a fast rise this past year.

It is good to see that Jews are responding.

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Jews Fight Back in Anterp
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, the news just makes me laugh.

Sometimes, an item shoots across my screen and I think it is a joke - but it turns out to be all too true.

A family of American tourists was leaving Israel after their visit. They arrived at Ben Gurion Airport and, like everyone else, stood on line for a security check of their luggage. And there, in their luggage, it was discovered that they were carrying home a souvenir they found on their trip to the Golan Heights.

What was this souvenir? It was an intact, unexploded, loaded, shell.

The airport was quickly evacuated. One person was hurt in the mayhem. The family was taken and interrogated.

The American family was quickly released and they were even able to fly home on their originally scheduled flight. It was obvious to security that they had no intention of wrongdoing. And just as obvious that they had no idea of how dangerous a souvenir they had.

In a certain way, it was a quaint story. Had they been in the United States the family would have certainly been arrested and charged. The legal principle is “ignorance is no excuse.”

In Israel, they handled things differently.

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Russians Leave Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel granted refugee status and citizenship to about 6,000 Russian Jews. they were obviously also granted the Right of Return.

As refugees, these new Israelis receive even more benefits than those granted to a simple oleh or Jewish immigrant.

These 6,000 Russians were granted the same refugee status as Ukrainians who were truly escaping for their lives. The Russian Jews were not escaping. But they lived with the fear that they may be targeted in Russia simply because they are Jews.

Now, 2 months since the invasion into Ukraine and the arrival of Russian refugees to Israel – 1,800 of these Russians have returned to Russia with their new Israeli citizenship plus the cash and other benefits given them by the Jewish State.

As you rightly imagine, Israel is not pleased. The Israeli government, you could say, is livid.

The Russians all flew back on either El Al or Israir. They are the only airlines that fly from Tel Aviv to Russia and the tickets are extremely expensive. Not to mention that the flights from Moscow to Tel Aviv were paid for by Israeli taxpayers.

These 1800 people are clearly not refugees … that is obvious by their return.

They exploited Israel to get an Israeli passport - a passport that is more respected in the Western world than a Russian passport.

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Teddy Bear Hospital
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

500 Israeli children received teddy bears for participating in an Open House for Children. The event was sponsored by the Azrieli Faculty of Medicine in Safad.

Every year for the past decade, this branch of Bar Ilan Medical School transforms their facility into a hospital and creates a program intended to de-mystify the hospital for children.

The goal is to alleviate anxiety. They conduct child-friendly programs in emergency rooms, blood labs, x-ray rooms, a cardiac center and even in ambulances.

The program is call “the Teddy Bear Hospital.” And it is very successful.

Many children, as well as adults, have a fear of hospitals and that fear keeps them from getting early treatment. If this anxiety can be alleviated early, then whenever hospitalizations are required - even if the need arises later in life, these graduates of Teddy Bear Hospital will feel comfortable enough to quickly access a hospital, before their situation turns into an emergency.

In the long term, innovative programs like this one save lives.

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Zelenskyy & Bennett
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett about Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s Hitler comments.

Zelenskyy called the comments "scandalous and completely unacceptable remarks". Zelenskyy also went on air and said that Lavrov’s ridiculous pronouncement had outraged the world.

Referring to Lavrov’s comments, Bennett said: "His words are untrue and their intentions are wrong. Using the Holocaust of the Jewish people as a political tool must cease immediately. Lies such as these mean to blame Jews for the horrible crimes committed against them throughout history and by doing so, remove responsibility from their enemies."

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid was very forceful in his outrage over Lavrov’s comments. He found them to be both a personal affront and a historical untruth.

Lapid said: "This is an unforgivable and outrageous statement and a terrible historic mistake and we expect an apology.

"Jews did not kill themselves in the Holocaust. My grandfather was killed by Nazis. To say that Hitler was of Jewish origin is like saying that Jews killed themselves and we cannot forgive such a comparison.

"It enrages me not only as foreign minister but also as a son of my father's who was put in the Budapest ghetto. He was not put there by Jews. He was put there by Nazis.

"The Nazis persecuted the Jews and killed six million of them. Ukrainians were not Nazis. Only the Nazis were Nazis and they had conducted a systematic eradication of the Jewish people.”

This issue is not going away. The Kremlin firmly asserts that Ukraine is Nazi and fascist. Russian’s propaganda machine is in full force telling Russians that through this invasion, they are de-Nazifying Ukraine.

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Lavrov's Ridiculous Pronouncement
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The ridiculous and very bold announcement, made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stating that Hitler was Jewish set in motion a series of responses.

Lavrov’s intent was to say that it does not matter that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is Jewish. Russia still must destroy the Nazism and fascism of Zelenskyy and of Ukraine.

The statement was made in a now famous interview Lavrov gave to Italian media.

He said: “I could be wrong but Hitler also had Jewish blood … [The fact that Zelensky] is a Jew doesn’t mean anything. Wise Jewish people say that the most ardent anti-Semites are usually Jews.”

The claim by Russia’s foreign minister is 100% false. But that doesn’t stop it from being repeated often these days in the Soviet Union. And it is even being used to discredit Israel and all Jews. The Kremlin’s intent was to bolster their claim that Ukraine is Nazi and Fascist – which is also blatantly false.

Just because they are false statements, doesn’t mean that they are not effective. These pronouncements have awakened a deep-seated hatred of Jews that, in the new era of Russia, has been controlled - residing and festering, beneath the surface.

There are serious ramifications to these Russian moves and proclamations.

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Elite Chocolate Betrayed Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

There has been a salmonella recall on Israeli chocolate made in the Strauss Elite Nazareth plant. Elite was bought by Strauss. Strauss is owned by Unilever. Unilever, of course, has gained notoriety as the parent company of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream.

Almost every Israeli has grown up on Elite chocolate. This was a big blow to the Israeli public – from toddler to senior citizen and everyone in between.

The salmonella was first detected by inspectors before Passover - but they did not go public until after Passover so as not to hurt the mood of Passover or, probably more importantly, their bottom line.

Ofra Strauss, the chair of the Strauss Group apologized to the public. She said: "I apologize for letting you down. We pledge that we will fix the flaws and return our products to the shelves only when they are safe."

Eyal Dror, CEO of Strauss Israel, explained the timeline: "About a month before the incident, there were pigeons in the chocolate factory. We got a couple of complaints from one of our clients, and indications of product anomalies, but we didn't listen or look into it, and that's not right."

The “incident” Dror refers to is the time when the salmonella was officially detected – not when the report was released. So they knew of the danger and continued producing chocolate and shipping chocolate for a month.

These executives showed sheer incompetence and a lack of regard for their customers, their health and their wellbeing. That is criminal. They must be prosecuted for their decision and their own words can be used against them.

They just wanted to sell more product.

Think about it. How could pigeons ever be permitted in a sterile food factory. Every worker on the factory floor wears masks, gloves, white coats and those silly looking white shower caps. Look at their videos on Youtube.

This isn’t Purim or Halloween. They wear disposable outfits because when you come into contact with food, you are legally required to sanitize. Everything should be as close to sterile as possible.

What would happen if there were reports of pigeons in an operating room? Would responsible leadership wait a month see if some inspector detects impurities? No way! Not even in Iran!

This is about more than chocolate. There should be national outrage. The board should replace the Elite Strauss leadership.

Strauss Elite decided not to inform the public of a risk and not to shut down. They decided to continue to sell beloved chocolates and ice cream and spreads that they knew was dangerous to consume.

What they did not know was just how dangerous. And that is the biggest legal issue. It was wanton disregard for the health of the public. Management took the risk. Thankfully, no one died.

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Mariupol Was Home to Great Yeshiva
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

By now, almost everyone has heard of the city of Mariupol.

But did you know that the great yeshivah of Ponevezh (Ponevitch) relocated to Mariupol in 1914 and tried to remain safe in that city during the inter-war years.

Originally located in Lithuania, during World War I, the Ponevezh Yeshiva was forced to shut its doors by the Germans. They looked for a safer place to re-open and Mariupol was the perfect spot. At the time it was about 20% Jewish – that was about 5,000 Jews.

And located on the Black Sea, it was far from the fighting.

After the War the Yeshiva went back to Ponevezh, but in 1939 it was caught between both Germany and Russia who were both squeezing it.

The Rosh Yeshiva, the head of the yeshiva, was able to save the prestigious school and reestablish it once again. In 1944 the Yeshiva of Ponovezh opened its doors in Bnei Brak, Israel

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Israel Convicts People Whose celebrate Murder
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Seven Israelis were convicted of celebrating the brutal murder a Palestinian toddler and his parents.

They were members of the Dawabsheh family and they were murdered in 2015 during an act of arson.

The Jerusalem Magistrates Court found the men guilty of “glorifying murder with song and dance”. The dance and song took place at a wedding.

There is an issue of freedom of expression. But this behavior was not appropriate and it was beneath the threshold of acceptability.

The court was correct. There is no first amendment right in Israel. It is not as all-encompassing as it is in the United States.

Shame on those seven Israelis.

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Russia is Hacking
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Both Microsoft and the government of the United States have discovered that Russia has been attacking Ukraine with digital hacks.

In fact, Russia has been aggressively targeting infrastructure and media and communications systems. It is part of a larger military strategy initiated by Russia to strike and disrupt life in Ukraine.

The Russians are, of course, using the standard bot and malicious software.

The United States discovered a Russian cyber weapon called “Pipe Dream.”

Pipe Dream is extremely dangerous. It targets Industrial Control Systems (ISC). That means power grids, water supplies, hospitals, pumping stations, sewage, trains and bridges. Pipedream is called a Swiss Army Knife because it has so very many adjustable tools.

It was discovered by a group of US teams working to keep the United States safe. The Department of Energy, the Department of Cyber Security, the Infrastructure Security Agency, the NSA, and the FBI all played a role in uncovering Pipe Dream.

Making it even more of a threat, Pipe Dream’s attack software targets Open Platform Communications Unified Architecture (OPC UA). That is our internet and computer systems.

To complicate matters, Pipe Dream may not have been developed by Russian hackers. It was probably purchased from Schneider Electric or from Omicron- both are now selling this product.

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Russia Uses Flechettes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 24, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Most people have never heard of and certainly can’t pronounce the word flechettes.

The best way to describe flechettes is the wing on a throwing dart or the feathers on an arrow. On military weapons, flechettes are the fins.

One type of weapon which uses flechettes is the cluster bomb - which is an illegal weapon according to today’s rules of war. The cluster bomb explodes high and releases hundreds of mini bombs that spread in all directions.

Russia uses flechettes. The Russians used flechettes in their invasion into Ukraine and especially in the city of Bucha. The Russians fired 122mm shells and hundreds of 3 mm flechettes flew out to attack Ukrainians.

As I said – flechettes are an illegal weapon according to today’s rules of war. Russia knows that. Russia, aka Vladimir Putin, does not care.

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Ab Accords Have Distracted the Media
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

One of the biggest issues Palestinians have with the Abraham Accords is that the Palestinians are no longer dictating the way other Arabs and Muslims see Israel.

Israelis and Arab leaders are engaged in trade and activity. The Palestinians are watching from the sidelines. The Palestinians are not even in the game.

But the tide may have turned for the Palestinians.

Some Palestinian advocates are claiming that recent violence on the Temple Mount may be what is needed to once again put their agenda on the front burner of the Arab world.

In a recorded speech, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, said that: "the Palestinian Issue is returning to life and gaining supporters and additional combatants that are willing to sacrifice themselves for its cause. The enemy relied on the time to pass and for the nations to forget the Palestinian issue, but what's happening is the opposite.”

Nasrallah spoke of the riots being waged on the Temple Mount, referring to them as the resistance, and said that: "its returning today and with it the sword in Gaza that defends it like it did last year."


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Leopard in Iran City
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A leopard, walking around your neighborhood, jumping from porch to porch and then to the ground is simply – to put it bluntly, not normal.

But that is exactly what recently happened in the Iranian city of Ghaemshahr, located in northern Iran.

The leopard attacked a policeman. It was subsequently wounded by police who shot it in order to save their colleague. The policeman is in stable condition.

The leopard was taken to a wild life refuge. These leopards are an endangered species. Unfortunately, the leopard died.

More and more. wild animals are encroaching upon and entering human domains. What was once unheard of, is now happening all over.

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Shocking Studies
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

There have been some shocking studies about US youth and their attitudes toward Israel and why they developed to those attitudes. College students were polled and here are some of their responses.

When questioned about feeling a “responsibility” towards Israel the responses were: 33% feel some responsibility, 23% feel little responsibility, and 12% feel no responsibility.

About responsibility for fellow Jews in the United States: only 9% feel a great deal of “responsibility” to help fellow Jews in the U.S., 33% feel some responsibility, 30% feel little responsibility, and 18% feel no responsibility.

These numbers are, quite frankly, shocking.

Nearly half of the college students polled have little to no “responsibility” for their fellow Jews in the United States.

“Responsibility” is a loaded term. It implies more commitment than the word “care” or “feeling”. But this is worrisome.

At the same time, 23% of the students polled reported that the anti-Israeli climate on campus or elsewhere has forced them to hide their Jewish identity. And 28% say the anti-Israeli climate on campus and elsewhere has made them rethink their own commitment to Israel. 54% say it has not affected them.

Jews are hiding their Jewish identity and young Jews are questioning their connections to Israel because of the toxic climate on campus.

That is a problem. It is a big, worrisome, problem.

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Abbas Livid w Hamas Leader
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 20, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas is livid that Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh is playing a role in talks regarding increased tensions in Jerusalem on the Temple Mount.

Not just any role, a large role.

Haniyeh was in touch with senior Egyptian intelligence officials, with Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and his foreign minister and with UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland.

The Hamas leader also contacted Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi.

Ismael Haniyeh lives in Doha, Qatar under the sponsorship and protection of the Qataris.

It seems as if important people are listening to him and taking his calls.

None of that bodes well for Mahmoud Abbas.

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West Bank Wine At White House
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 19, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States, served Psagot wine at her seder. The picture was splashed all over the twittersphere.

Actually, it was condemned all over the twittersphere.

Psagot wine is made in Samaria, in the north part of the West Bank just outside of Ramallah.

Quickly doing damage control. Hadar Susskind, head of Americans for Peace Now tweeted an explanation. She tweeted: "I absolutely believe that the VP did not intend to serve wine produced in a settlement. But this mistake came about because of policy. Specifically, the Trump administration policy which erased the Green Line and allowed products made in West Bank settlements to be labeled as 'Made in Israel.'"

Susskind urged her membership to: "sign this petition to urge Secretary of State Antony Blinken to reverse Trump’s embracement of West Bank settlements."

I am flabbergasted, simply flabbergasted.

The wine served by the vice president and her husband was a very good wine and I compliment the selection. But if you think it was wrong to select that wine – say it was wrong. Condemn the selection. Don’t try to justify it.

This is an example of one of the big issues that emerges in covering this administration. It appears as if the right is the only group that criticizes the administration.

Part of the role of ideologues is to be true to their ideology. That’s not what happened here. Instead we have a perfect example of ideology morphing into a political apology.

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Passover Easter Overlap
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 18, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Passover and Easter overlapped this year.

That coincidence provides a perfect opportunity to illustrate how certain aspects of Christianity misread the life of Jesus – and that misunderstanding led to the persecution of Jews over the millennia.

For instance, whenever the Passion (the story of the crucifixion in Christian tradition) is read - anti-Jewish acts happen in its wake. The theology emerges out of an idea called supersessionism.

Supersessionism is the concept that Christianity replaced Judaism. It is best seen in the Christian names of the Bibles. And in the New versus the Old – in the idea that the new Christian Bible takes the place of the old Hebrew Bible.

It is also seen in the notion that Jesus was lapse in His Jewish observance. New scholarship, with very few exceptions, totally reject this. They assert that Jesus was an observant Jew, including issues of ritual purity.

If more Christians studied and were taught the real roots of Jesus, it would go a long way to fighting the awful plague of Jew hatred ravaging the world today.

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Hezbollah Destroy Israel fir $9 Bill
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction in Lebanon announced that with just $9 billion they could wipe Israel off the map.

According to Mohamed Raad: “The resistance only needs $9 billion and there will be nothing left called Israel in the region.”

That is, to put it mildly, a very bold statement.

When you analyze the statement, however, you see that Raad and Hezbollah demonstrate two major weaknesses.

Number one - they do not understand the value of the dollar. When speaking in military terms, $9 billion is not all that much money.

Number two - they do not have an understanding of Israel’s military power.

I can guarantee that if they were to get $9 billion and tried to destroy Israel, they would be the ones to be destroyed.


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Sisters Lost in Mine Field
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:


A family was hiking in southern Israel in the Arava Desert, in Nachal Tamar, when two daughters wandered off the path. The younger daughter was 6 years old and the older one was 13.

The children wandered on to a minefield.

Thankfully, the girls had the presence of mind to call emergency services.

After four wrenching hours, they were finally safe and sound. Two of those hours were spent standing still in the very same spot and two were spent slowly, very slowly, making their way back to safety - personally guided by sappers.

The two girls, along with a sapper, wore large mats on their feet which spreads the weight so as not to trigger an undiscovered mine.

Because they were in the desert, police suggested they use drones to deliver water so that the children would they not dehydrate. But the parents feared that the drone would disturb a mine and they nixed the idea.

It was an emotional and harrowing four hours and after making it to safety the sisters ran into their parent’s loving arms.

This story had a happy ending. Israeli police are using this story to call on all hikers to pay attention and stick to signed paths. Good advice.

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Shel Silverstein RIP
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Silverstein, the beloved children’s author and artist, is being honored with a US postal stamp.

Silverstein was born in Chicago in 1930, he died in 1999.

“The Giving Tree” is Silverstein’s greatest work.  It tells the story of the friendship between a boy and a tree.  The commemorative stamp features a picture of the boy catching an apple.

A marvelous lesson about the relationship between trees and people, “The Giving Tree” is read ubiquitously in Jewish education. 

Children read the book themselves or have the book read to them every year on Tu B’shvat.  What a wonderful way to celebrate the New Year of Trees.

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Dolphin Killed
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A bottlenose dolphin was found dead in a fish farm in the port of Ashdod.

There are only an estimated 300-400 of these dolphins in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. They are considered “vulnerable” – in other words, they are at risk of extinction.

The authorities and investigators and, of course, the expert marine biologists were all called to make certain that there was no foul play at the fish farm.

They discovered that the body of this eight-foot-long dolphin had marks around the dorsal fin and the pectoral fins. It was determined that the dolphin had probably gotten tangled in the fishing nets or ropes that are used to secure ships in the Ashdod port.

Other marks were also seen on the dolphin. According to the scientists, those marks were caused by members of the pod that had tried to free the dolphin. Dolphins work together to solve common problems. As a pod they even coordinate to take out sharks.

This is the third dolphin this year to be washed ashore. All three of these dolphins were caught in nets or ropes.

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Hammerhead Shark Near Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli fisherman, fishing off the coast of Ashdod, spotted a hammerhead shark.

The fisherman contacted the Israel Nature and Parks Reserve. They sent out two inspectors – and they found the shark.

It is very unusual to find a hammerhead shark in the Mediterranean.

This hammerhead was over 6 feet long. The inspectors observed and filmed the shark for over an hour.

Hammerheads are considered rare and endangered in the Mediterranean. Experts approximated that there were only 12 hammerheads in the entire Mediterranean.

This sighting, in addition to being exciting, is evidence that the shark population is expanding in the Mediterranean area.

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Texas Synagogue Re-Opens
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The now famous Texas synagogue – the synagogue that captured the attention of the world when the synagogue rabbi and three congregants were held captive by a terrorist - recently re-opened.

Congregation Beth Israel in Colleyville, TX had been damaged by the attack. Windows were broken and doors were destroyed. There were bullet holes in the walls.

Much of the synagogue needed to be repaired.

Anna Salton Eisen, a synagogue founder, said that the scene reminded her of the abandoned synagogues in Poland, still marked with bullets from World War II, that she saw while visiting that country in 1998 with her parents — both Holocaust survivors.

She said: “I was standing in my synagogue this time and it was just empty and silent and it showed the marks of the violence that had occurred.”

Eisen added that the return to their synagogue will help the healing process for her fellow congregants.

She said: “We are not defeated and we are not going to live in fear.”

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Hamas Condemns Arabs who Condemn Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Hamas slammed Arab and Muslim countries that condemned the recent spate terror attacks in Israel.

Hamas supported the terror attacks. They were not responsible and did not claim responsibility. They certainly gave their support and heaped praise on the terrorist and their actions.

Concerning the nations and leaders who condemned the terror, Hamas published a statement.

"We were surprised by the condemnation. Resistance is the protection of people and holy places and is a right enshrined in international law," the Islamist terror outfit said.

"Israel's aggressive policy against the Palestinian people is one of the causes of terrorism and racism around the world."

The hardest thing for people is their last statement that Israel is the cause for terror and racism around the world.

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World Won't Call it Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has seen an uptick in terror and yet, the international media is reluctant to call it “terror”.

Instead, they rewrite the events - placing blame on Israel.

Here is a recent Reuters news agency release. "Israeli forces shoot dead Palestinian after Tel Aviv bar attack". Well, yes – BUT – only after the Palestinian perpetrated a terror attack that killed 3 people. That detail was omitted from the original release.

Only after a huge backlash did Reuters rewrite the lead. Now it read: "Israeli security forces on Friday shot dead a Palestinian suspected of killing three people in a Tel Aviv bar, in the latest attack in a series amid renewed tensions between Palestinians and Israelis".

Better but not quite accurate. It places the emphasis and the wrongdoing on Israeli security forces. And the words “terror” and “terrorist” and still not mentioned.

The BBC posted this biased portrayal of the terror attack: "Palestinian gunman killed by Israeli security forces after deadly attack at Tel Aviv bar".

The Guardian depicted the events this way: "Israeli forces kill Palestinian after Tel Aviv shooting leaves two dead". It was later altered to read: "Israel: Two dead after gunman opens fire in Tel Aviv bar".

Fox got it correct - but hedged a little: "Israeli forces kill Palestinian after Tel Aviv shooting leaves two dead". Later altered it to: "Israel: Two dead after gunman opens fire in Tel Aviv bar".

This is a moral problem.

Murdering Israeli Jews simply because they are Israeli Jews is terror and it is racism.

How do these people, people others depend on for information, not lose the high ground for their moral inconsistency?

Every decent person must label these events properly and condemn the murder of innocent people, targeted because and only because, they are Israeli Jews.

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1 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Support for a single state solution of the Israeli/Palestinian situation is higher now than it has been.

A recent survey shows that 33% of Palestinians support the idea that there should be only one state for both Israelis and Palestinians. The study was done by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Just three months ago, 24% of Palestinians supported a single state solution.

The one state solution is most popular among young people and nationalists.

This study indicates that the mainstream population of the Palestinians have lost confidence - or are quickly losing confidence, in their leadership to bring a resolution to the stalemate.

This number represents the highest number in 30 years of surveys on this subject.

If there were to be a single state, the populations would be split evenly with about 7 million Israelis and 7 million Palestinians.

The results of these studies suggest a troubling future in terms of resolving this problem.

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1 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Support for a single state solution of the Israeli/Palestinian situation is higher now than it has been.

A recent survey shows that 33% of Palestinians support the idea that there should be only one state for both Israelis and Palestinians. The study was done by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Just three months ago, 24% of Palestinians supported a single state solution.

The one state solution is most popular among young people and nationalists.

This study indicates that the mainstream population of the Palestinians have lost confidence - or are quickly losing confidence, in their leadership to bring a resolution to the stalemate.

This number represents the highest number in 30 years of surveys on this subject.

If there were to be a single state, the populations would be split evenly with about 7 million Israelis and 7 million Palestinians.

The results of these studies suggest a troubling future in terms of resolving this problem.

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1 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Support for a single state solution of the Israeli/Palestinian situation is higher now than it has been.

A recent survey shows that 33% of Palestinians support the idea that there should be only one state for both Israelis and Palestinians. The study was done by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Just three months ago, 24% of Palestinians supported a single state solution.

The one state solution is most popular among young people and nationalists.

This study indicates that the mainstream population of the Palestinians have lost confidence - or are quickly losing confidence, in their leadership to bring a resolution to the stalemate.

This number represents the highest number in 30 years of surveys on this subject.

If there were to be a single state, the populations would be split evenly with about 7 million Israelis and 7 million Palestinians.

The results of these studies suggest a troubling future in terms of resolving this problem.

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Bloomberg Center For Mayors
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Michael Bloomberg has joined forces with the Sagol family to help mayors in Israel become better mayors.

They have created The Bloomberg-Sagol Center for City Leadership at Tel Aviv University.

Bloomberg is drawing on the experience he has gained from his own Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership Initiative at the Kennedy School for Government and the Harvard Business School.

At the launch event held at Tel Aviv University, Michael Bloomberg explained the thinking behind the newly created center in Israel this way: “Mayors are on the front lines of every crisis, whether it’s terrorism or a pandemic. The series of recent terrorist attacks in Israel underscores the urgency of this new initiative, which is aimed at helping mayors confront their most difficult challenges and most pressing crises.”

“Israel has always been an inspiration due to its fortitude and the resolve you continue to show in the face of terror. In New York we are in tremendous gratitude to all those countries who stood by us and helped after 9/11, especially Israel, and one small way we can repay the debt is by replicating the program that has been phenomenally successful in the United States.”

The Bloomberg-Sagol Center will have a significant impact on municipal leadership in Israel.

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Miri an Israeli Billionaire
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Forbes published its list of billionaires and Elon Musk tops the list with $219 billon.

Miriam (Miri) Adelson hit the list at #50 with $27 billion. Miri is the widow of Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate.

Together, Sheldon and Miri created the newspaper Israel Hayom. Miri remains owner of the Israeli paper.

Israel Hayom is the largest newspaper in Israel. It is distributed, for free, across Israel. The thinking behind the paper has always been to challenge mainstream media in Israel – media that has generally been left leaning or even extreme left.

Miri Adelson continues the tradition of philanthropy she and her husband began. Their generous support was and still is given to education in Israel, education about Israel and Jewish causes.

The Adelson’s were also very large contributors to Republican causes and candidates.

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Iran Blames US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is pointing their finger. And that finger is aimed directly at the United States. They are blaming the United States for the stalemate in the nuke talks.

While significant progress was made in the latest round of talks, the talks taking place in Vienna have stalled.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman did not mince words. He said the United States is responsible for the pause in talks between Tehran and world powers in Vienna aimed at reviving their 2015 nuclear deal.

Speaking during a weekly news conference Saeed Khatibzadeh said: "America is responsible for the halt of these talks ... a deal is very much within reach … Washington should make political decision for the deal's revival."

And then he added that Tehran would "not wait forever".

If it sounds like a threat – it is.

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AirBnB Shuts Russia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

AirBnB has announced that it is now suspending all operations in Russia and in Belarus.

The company statement announcing this decision reads: "Guests globally will no longer be able to make new reservations for stays or experiences in Russia or Belarus."

Brian Chesky, AirBnB CEO, added that reservations starting on or after April 4th have been canceled. This policy change was announced on Twitter.

This is a small but essential move.

AirBnB is a huge company and travelers have learned to rely on this service when travelling both domestically and to foreign destinations.

Many more US corporations that service Russia and Belarus should be following AirBnB’s move. They, too, must pull out of Russia and Belarus and they must pull out now.


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Taliban Outlaws Opium
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Afghanistan just outlawed the farming of poppy.

Poppy is what makes opium.

Afghanistan was producing over 6,000 tons of opium.

Poppy is their largest single export - amounting to billions of dollars. And the Taliban declared that if farmers continue to grow their poppy, their fields will be burned.

Every year for the last 6 years, Afghanistan has broken records in poppy and opium production. They are the largest producer of poppy and opium in the world. So large that Afghanistan produces more than all the other poppy producers in the entire world combined.

The US has spent $8 billion over the past 2 decades trying to eradicate the crop.

The Taliban outlawed poppy and opium once before, in 2001. It ruined their economy. This time, Afghanistan will probably suffer the same end result. This decision will probably further ruin their already failed economy.

On the bright side, if Afghanistan no longer produces opium. there will be fewer hard drugs on the market.


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New Spike in Terror
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

There has been a spike in terror attacks against Israelis.

It could be considered a wave of terror.

These most recent terrorists are operating on their own - independent of organizational support and coordination.

They are lone wolves. They are, however, affiliated with IS the Islamic State, which used to be called ISIS.

Lone wolves are very difficult to defend against.

They have no real network or command structure. One cannot infiltrate or pay for information about them. Lone wolves get radicalized online, from the internet, and they get their info because they are locals.

And that is why Israel the government is telling Israelis that everyone needs to be alert and vigilant. Every Israeli must try their best to detect lone wolves.

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Abraham Accord Success
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Abraham Accords, begun under the administration of Donald J. Trump, continue to produce positive results.

The most recent result is a free trade agreement signed between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

Negotiations for the deal were pretty straight forward. They focused on imports and exports, regulations, customs and government purchases. The most important element in this new agreement is that trade between the two nations expand and that is because trade will be stimulated by having no tax on any deals between the two countries.

The groundwork for the deal was laid during Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s trip to the UAE last September.

These are very positive moves. There is significant benefit not only for both these countries, but also for the region. Positive results and important change will emerge because of these Abraham Accord deals.

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They Blessed Families of Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 31, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Two Palestinian Arab terrorists murdered two Israeli officers and wounded many others in the city of Hadera before they were killed by undercover police who were having a meal at a café nearby.

Jordan condemned the attack. Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt and many other Arab countries condemned the attack.

The municipality of Umm al Fahm, an Arab city inside Israel proper, sent official condolences to the families – that is, to the families of the two terrorists.

The official Umm al Fahm statement read: "We send are heartfelt condolences for the deaths of Ayman Agrabia and Ibrahim Agrabia. May God take pity on them and forgive them."

Earlier in the week, Samir Mahamid, the mayor of the Arab Israeli city, told Ynet that the municipality and he personally, condemn the attack.

That statement condemning the attack was later retracted, explaining that it had been a mistake. According to the municipality: "We thought it was right to release a condolence statement as we do when people in the city pass away, but the mayor demanded we erase the statement."

Yes, the terrorists lived in Umm al Fahm - but they were terrorists.

Umm al Fahm is an Arab city in the north of Israel near Hadera and in the Haifa region. It sits in the middle of the country. It is home to 56,000 people. It is a real city.

All Umm al Fahm residents - including terrorists Ayman and Ibrahim Agrabia, are full citizens of Israel. Israelis don’t send condolences to the families of terrorists.

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Poisoning the Mediators
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

We are learning more about the poisoning of the Russian oligarch, Roman Abramovich and two Ukrainian diplomats.

The poisoning took place in Kyiv, on March 3rd, after the negotiations broke up. Abramovich and Ukrainian Member of Parliament Rustem Umerov, along with another diplomat, were all together when they began to experience strange symptoms.

Their symptoms, according to the reports we are getting, included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands.

Most experts are saying that the dose of poison was small, but big enough to frighten the targets. The objective was not to assassinate - just terrorize.

The obvious culprits are the Russians - who have a successful history of poison. But many countries use poison. And Russia is claiming that it was not them.

The exact quote of Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov is that the reports "do not correspond to reality."

Another strange sidebar in a very strange story.

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Arab Summit in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The foreign ministers of Israel, the United States, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco concluded a two-day summit at Kibbutz Sde Boker in the Negev Desert. Sde Boker was home to Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben Gurion.

The 5 Arab nations came to Israel to talk. They all had different agendas and varying priorities. For Israel it was all about Iran. Not so for the others around the table.

Dan Shapiro is a reliable source. He was the former US ambassador to Israel and is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program. Until last week, he served as senior adviser to the US special envoy on Iran.

Shapiro was quoted by the Times of Israel saying: “For the UAE, it might be investment in clean energy; for Bahrain, it might be maritime security; for Morocco, it might be education and agriculture; for Egypt… [it might be] all of those.”

Such is the nature of diplomacy and international affairs. Seldom does everything fall into total alignment.

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Palestinians Celebrate Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Two Israelis are murdered by terrorists - and Palestinian leadership rejoices.

Something is terribly wrong with that model.

Islamic Jihad and Hamas both celebrated the terror attack in Hadera.

The terror groups announced that the reason behind this terror attack was the regional peace conference, taking place at just that same time, in the Negev. Attending the summit were diplomats from Egypt, the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain and of course, Israel.

According to Islamic Jihad: "The attack in Hadera is the reaction of the Palestinian people and the liberators of the nation to the 'summit of evil' in which the foreign ministers of Arab countries are participating."

Hamas had a similar explanation for the attack: "We welcome the heroic attack against the soldiers of the occupation army in Hadera."

If they are angry at their fellow Arabs, why attack Israel?

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Pet Refugees
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

So far since Russia invaded Ukraine 12,000 Ukrainian refugees have been brought to Israel.

About of those 3650 Ukrainian Jewish refugees are eligible to make aliyah – that is, they can become citizens of Israel. 20,000 Ukrainians were in Israel before February 24, the date Russia invaded and they will be allowed to stay until the war ends and 5000 of them were granted visas.

Several hundred Russians have left Russia and have also made aliyah.

The Israeli government and private groups of Israelis are organizing to provide for the needs of these refugees.

Not surprisingly, many of the refugees come with nothing except for the clothes they are wearing and small bundles or suitcases that they could carry as they ran out of Ukraine and escaped to Moldova or Poland and from there, to Israel.

Ukrainian refugees have lost almost everything. Most left without their husbands and fathers who may not leave Ukraine – they must stay and fight. Families have no idea of the wellbeing of the men they left behind to wage war against invading Russia.

Many of them escaped Ukraine with their pets. They’ve brought cats and dogs and hamsters and other pets. The Israeli ministry responsible for the care of the refugees has also been making arrangements for their pets.

The ministry is informed in advance when a pet is arriving and upon arrival, as an act of goodwill, the ministry's staff has provided for the needs of the "olim on all fours", the “new immigrants on all fours”. They have quality food and the proper documentation for their aliyah, waiting for the new immigrants at Ben-Gurion Airport.

At least that part was made easier for these tired, desperate souls.

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Matzah Shortage
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

There will most probably be a shmura matzah shortage this year. And this shortage really is, unquestionably, Vladimir Putin’s fault.

Shmura matza is also known as hand-baked round matzah.

Ukraine produces 20% of the world’s grain. And surprisingly – they are a huge producer of the world’s shmura matzah. In one city alone, the city of Dnipro, hey have 2 very large matzah bakeries. Chabad also has a matzah bakery in Dnipro.

Most of Ukraine’s matza is normally exported, some is made for internal use. On average, former Soviet Republics eat more matzah than most other people. They average over 2 pounds per person. Twice as much as the matzah allocation for an IDF soldier.

Tiferes HaMatzos, one of the factories in Dnipro, employees 100 people. Many of the workers have been baking matzah for generations - 3,4 and even 5 generations. They get their water from a well which sits 145 feet below ground.

Under the oppressive Soviet regime, matzah baking was mostly illegal. But matzohs need to be baked and eaten on Passover and so underground matzah bakeries were organized. Locals would bring their own flour and give it to the bakers to turn into shmurah matzah. When they could, they also baked and tried to supply matzah for the rest of the community.

In Ukraine today there are 116 Jewish communities that will get matzah, but there will not be much matzah for export. Because of the Russian invasion, there will obviously be fewer people in each of those communities to enjoy their homemade matzah.

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Israel's New Air Defense
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Tal Shamayim means Sky Dew. And Tal Shamayim is Israel’s newest anti-missile system.

As far as anti-missile systems go, this one does not look very threatening. In fact, it looks like a white Goodyear Blimp.

Tal Shamayim was developed by The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO). It is a high-altitude early warning system designed to detect drones and missiles.

Unlike the Goodyear blimp, these balloons don’t travel. They are tethered, the way a kite is tethered. They float and use their advanced radar technology to monitor and watch.

One system has already been operational in the south of Israel and now a second system was just positioned in the north of Israel.

This balloon can stay up for indefinite amounts of time and can be raised higher or lower.

This simple concept but will dramatically improve Israel’s advance warning system.

Over the years Israel has developed a multi-layered defense system to protect itself from ever-evolving threats from Iran, the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Syria.

Tal Shamayim, Sky Dew, joins the ranks of the Iron Dome system for close-range threats and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems for long-range threats.

It is another set of Israeli eyes in the sky.

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Madeline Albright
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 24 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The first female US Secretary of State, Madeline Albright, has passed away at the age of 84. Born in 1938 in the city of Prague, she immigrated to the United States in 1949 at the age of 11, together with her parents. The family lived in New York, on Long Island.

Under President Bill Clinton, Madeline Albright served as US ambassador to the United Nations before making history as the first female United States Secretary of State.

Three of Albright’s grandparents were murdered by the Nazis. But her parents converted before she was born and never told Madeline that they were Jewish. They raised her as a Catholic.

On a personal note, I was with Madeline Albright on several occasions. I was at Yad Vashem when she publicly announced and affirmed that she was Jewish. She had just finished her official tour and was holding a press conference outside the Children’s Memorial. It was there that she spoke openly, candidly and I must say, very movingly, about the Holocaust and her family.

Madeline Albright was a powerful force. When she felt it necessary, she did not hesitate to put people in their place. I was there, in Ramallah, with the Secretary of State and Yasser Arafat, when she made the famous statement that “there is no equivalence between bombs and bulldozers”. At the time Albright was responding to justifications for terror and that Palestinian houses were being bulldozed by Israel and so they, the Palestinians, were murdering Israelis.

Throughout her career, Madeline Albright remained a true lady. She telegraphed her intentions through her scarfs and her pins and the colors she chose to wear. When she visited victims of terror in an Israeli hospital she wore white, for her visit at Yad Vashem, it was blue and to reprimand Yasser Arafat, Madeline Albright dressed in black with a pin in the shape of white dove adorning her outfit.

She was one of a kind. May her memory be blessed.

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Israeli Clowns Help Refugees
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 23 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel makes up more volunteers per capita than any other country helping in Ukraine. Israelis are even a larger percentage of volunteers in the countries bordering Ukraine - especially in Poland and in Moldova.

Israelis take up arms and defend Ukraine against Russia. They are in these countries providing medical care and psychological care. They deliver food and other essential services.

And they come as clowns.

Dream Doctors was established in 2002. Its members can be found in 30 hospitals throughout Israel. And at the request of local authorities on the ground in Poland and Moldova, Dream Doctors have come there, too. Helping. Making people smile.

The clowns of Dream Doctors are well trained and certified. They work in pairs and, like in Israel, they have had tremendous success working with Ukrainian refugees in Moldova and Poland.

In Israel, they are also working with Ukrainians - Jewish Ukrainians and non-Jewish Ukrainians, who have been airlifted to Israel. They all need help

These clowns speak a universal language for children, a language that also resonates with adults. Dream Doctors gets people to smile and laugh again.

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Singapore & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 22 2022
I've Been Thinking:

53 years ago, Singapore and Israel established diplomatic relations. The year was 1969. Now, these many years later, Singapore will finally open an embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel

A statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on March 21st explained that the Singapore embassy in Tel Aviv will "serve as a focal point and support Singapore companies seeking to expand their collaboration with potential Israeli partners”.

For years the two countries engaged in covert military partnership. Both Singapore and Israel welcomed closer cooperation in areas such as innovation and technology, trade and investment, research, development, and education.

The Singapore-Israel Industrial Research & Development Foundation (SIIRD) is celebrating its 25th anniversary in 2022. Since its inception in 1997, the Foundation has funded about 190 projects, providing about US$120 million to projects between Singapore and Israel.

In addition to announcing the opening of its Tel Aviv Embassy, Singapore emphasized its commitment to a two-state solution and to a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Israel and Palestinians.

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Lego Zelenskyy
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 21 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Citizen Brick is the name of a company that creates customized Lego characters. They create the personalized and spectacular characters for the classic children’s game Lego.

There is a new addition to their Lego collections. It is called Lego Zelenskyy.

Lego Zelenskyy is now able to play along with police and firefighters figures as well as figures of construction workers and various family members.

Along with Zelenskyy, Citizen Brick made a Molotov Cocktail figurine. There is an option to buy both figures or to choose either the president or the firebomb.

Chicago-based Citizen Brick created these figures not as a business venture, but as a humanitarian gesture. They wanted to raise $100,000 to help Ukrainian refugees through the organization Direct Relief. And they sold out within 24 hours.

It is important to note that Citizen Brick is not the Lego Group – it is a company licensed to produce specialized additions to the game. And given the response, these figures are a welcome addition.

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Zelenskyy to Knesset
By Micah Halpern

Sunay March 20 2022
I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Israeli Knesset.

In the course of the presentation, as the Ukrainian president was speaking, the Knesset was forced to repel computer attack after computer attacks.

Almost certainly, the attacks on the Knesset were an attempt to prevent the Ukrainian president’s speech. The cyberattacks could have resulted in disaster - but the Israeli cyber defense system was alert and did their job and the speech went on.

The attackers were, most probably, Russian.

In his speech, Zelenskyy referenced the Holocaust, a decision that was met with serious critique. The general feeling of Knesset members was that the Ukrainian president’s Holocaust related material bordered on Holocaust denial. Most specifically, his use of historical comparisons and the exaggerations he employed when comparing the murder of Jews by Nazis to the Russian invasion of his country, Ukraine.

The Holocaust was perpetrated under the guise of war. It was a program to murder every single Jew and to that end, murder factories were created. The end result was the murder of 6 million Jews.

Israeli lawmakers and Holocaust experts contend that that is not what is happening in Ukraine.

Never the less, almost every member of Israel’s Knesset agreed to support Ukraine against an aggressive Russia.

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Hackers Hack Mossad
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 19 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Open Hands is the name of a hacker group.

And on Telegram, an online messaging platform that quickly deletes messages once they have been opened, Open Hands has published the private details of the head of Israel’s Mossad.

Not once, but twice in a very short period, Open Hands has divulged private information about one of the most private people in the world – the head of Israel’s clandestine intelligence service.

Mossad head David Barnea’s private phone and salary were published.

The material was from Barnea’s 2020 tax return. He makes $268,000.

Israel’s response to this hack was that the material that was made public is irrelevant and not of use to anyone. That the material came from Barnea’s wife’s old cellphone.

Because the material on Telegram disappears so quickly, finding the culprits is hard. We know it was Open Hands, a group of loosely connected hackers with varied political ideologies and goals, claimed they responsibility for the deed.

Israel is a target for hackers and this is one of many examples.

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US Warns China
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 18 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Washington issued a series of public and private threats to Beijing, suggesting that if China helps Russia and supports the invasion of Ukraine, there will be a heavy price to pay.

The United States literally said that China will face serious consequences if it supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In addition to a phone call between the leaders of the United States and China, a seven-hour meeting took place in Rome Between Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s nations security adviser, and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi.

We have been told that the meeting was tense as the United States passed their message on to China very clearly.

The Biden Administration is trying to insure that China does not help Russia end around Western sanctions or, more importantly, supply weapons to the Russians as casualties mount in Ukraine.

It is a difficult diplomatic needle to thread.

The Biden administration is taking a big gamble with China and Russia.

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Foreign Fighters Are Coming
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad has promised to provide some 40,000 militants to Russia to help them fight in Ukraine. This information comes from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

Russia opened 14 recruitment centers in Syria and is signing people up. They are promising a salary of $300 - $600 / month.

That’s not the only outside help Russia is receiving.

The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, has said he will be sending another 1,000 Chechens to assist Russian forces in Ukraine.

On the other side of the struggle, about 20,000 foreign fighters have joined Ukraine. Ukraine says that these fighters have come from 52 different countries.

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Iran Suspends Talks w Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has suspended talks with Saudi Arabia.

The news come to us from a website affiliated with Iran's top security body. No explanation was given for the surprising decision that came just as a fifth round of negotiations between the two countries was due to start.

Tehran also condemned mass executions in Saudi Arabia and said that 41 Shiites had been executed. They didn’t say it, but that very well may have been the reason for the suspension of talks.

Iran is a Shiite Muslim country and Saudi Arabia is a Sunni Muslim country. The two groups are sworn enemies. And these two countries are leaders in their respective groups.

There is very little chance that Iran and Saudi Arabia will ever trust one another. Each sees the other as a heretic.

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Israel Send Field Hospital
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has set up a field hospital in Western Ukraine. The hospital is named after a former prime minister, Israel’s Prime Minister Golda Meir.

The cost of the field hospital is $6.4 million. The hospital will obviously treat the wounded. It will also be equipped to function like any other hospital and treat everything form delivering babies to broken arms.

Placing the hospital in the west, close to the Ukrainian border with Poland, which is a NATO country, is an important – and not arbitrary, move. It signals to Russia that the hospital is there for humanitarian reasons.

Israel has previously deployed field hospitals like this one in various war zones and disaster areas. They are very effective and very important humanitarian aids.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett released a statement which read: “Establishing a field hospital there, in Ukraine, is an initiative that not many countries are capable of taking on themselves. … The State of Israel has this capability and we are getting underway. This is important and I am pleased that we — the Health Ministry and the Foreign Ministry, with the assistance of the Finance Ministry — are leading it.”

Israel continues to try to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. Israel is doing everything it can to save as many lives as possible.

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Russia Conflict Forces Questions
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused others to look at their local border conflicts - conflicts that could explode at any moment.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis agreed, during talks in Istanbul, to keep communication channels open and to improve ties despite disagreements.

Turkey and Greece carry a special responsibility within the security foundation of Europe, which has changed with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As the Turkish president acknowledged, their increased cooperation will have regional benefits.

Turkey and Greece have been sworn enemies for decades. But the Ukrainian/Russian conflict has graphically illustrated for them how conflict can savage a country.

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Russia & China
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia is starting to suffer in real terms in Ukraine. One clear sign is that proud Russia has begun asking for international assistance.

Quoting US officials, the Financial Times reported that Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine.

According to the report, the White House was concerned that Beijing may "undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country."

Obviously, the United States is concerned - but there is nothing that they can do about it.

There is no question that China is one of, if not the only country, that has any influence on Russia. And China is one of the only countries Russia can comfortably ask for help.

In response, China has told Russia that it is time to de-escalate in Ukraine.

We must wait and see if China will, in the end, help Russia and more importantly, if Russia will listen to the advice given them by China.

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Water is Rising in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Water is an essential in the life of a society.

For Israel, the main source of fresh water is the Sea of Galilee aka the Kineret. After some rough, dry seasons, the Kineret has slowly been battling back and rising to capacity.

For the sake of safety, as a precaution, Israel desalinates water. That’s just in case there is not enough fresh water.

Israel’s Water and Sewage Authority has reported that the Sea of Galilee has risen by no less than seven centimeters and now stands at -209.53 meters -- only 0.73 meters from full capacity.

That is truly a miracle.

For years analysts have predicted that the next war in the Middle East will be about water. Keeping the Kineret high lends important security to Israel.

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Israel & Oligarch
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Russian oligarchs made their billions with the support of Putin. The president of Russia is a partner in all their contracts.

And now the oligarchs are being sanctioned.

Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum has suspended a strategic partnership with Roman Abramovich, an Israeli-Russian oligarch, who has faced sanctions abroad since the eruption of the Ukraine conflict.

It was only last month that Yad Vashem announced that Abramovich's pledged funding would strengthen its endeavors in the areas of Holocaust research and remembrance.

The Memorial Museum survives om donations and Abramovich’s pledge was more than substantial. It is courageous and ethical for Yad Vashem to take this stand.

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Israel & Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The world is evolving. International relations are advancing.  Alliances we never would have expected are being forged. 

Aviv Kochavi, Chief of Staff of the IDF, visited Bahrain for a series of meetings with top security officials in the Persian Gulf kingdom.

Kochavi was accompanied by the head of the IDF's Iran directorate, Tal Kalman.

Kochavi's visit came just a few weeks after Israel’s Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, visited Bahrain. During that visit a security cooperation agreement between Israel and Bahrain was signed.

There is little doubt as to what Israelis and Bahrainis are speaking about and sharing.  Iran, Iran, Iran and Islamic terror.

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Israel Takes in Ukrainians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel announced that they have already taken in 25,000 non-Jewish Ukrainians. They will be permitted to stay in Israel permanently.

Israel has also suspended the $3000 deposit usually requested of non-Jews to make certain that they leave the country.

Of the 25,000 Ukrainians non-Jews now in Israel, 20,000 are in Israel illegally in Israel. They will be permitted to legally remain.

Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked made the announcement Tuesday. Israel’s Law of Return usually offers citizenship only to people with at least one Jewish grandparent.

But this is not a usual circumstance and Israel needs to act to save lives. Shaked summed it up when she said: “The sights of war in Ukraine and the suffering experienced by its citizens rattle the soul and don’t allow us to remain indifferent”.

Ukrainians are not the only newcomers to Israel. Over 300 Russia Jews arrived in Israel and made Aliyah (came to live in Israel permanently) in 48 hours. And +Israel is expecting many more.

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PA Thinks Ukraine will Steal Their Place
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes people think the world revolves only around them.

Palestinian leadership and laity are worried that the crisis in Ukraine will hurt their cause and the way there are perceived in the world.

Palestinian leadership is concerned that the conflict will force Palestinians off the front page and they will need to create reasons to return to center stage.

Palestinian leadership has been silent on the matter. And to their benefit, no one is actually looking for Palestinian input and perspective.

Palestinian leadership is upset that Israel is receiving 5,000 Ukrainian refugees and opening their country to tens of thousands of temporary Ukrainian residents in need of refuge.

Palestinian leadership is concerned that, once again, Israelis are importing Jews and they are convinced that these newcomers will usurp Palestinian land.

Humanitarian aid for Ukraine seems not to be on their agenda.

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Kosher in Istanbul Airport
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

We all know people travelling form the United States to Israel and laying over in Istanbul.

The trip has become a bit more enjoyable.

A kosher vending machine with sandwiches and other items is now open for business in the airport. It is called Kosher Food Point.

The food is certified kosher by the local Turkish rabbinate under Chabad Rabbi Mendy Chitrik and also has the international kosher certification OK Kosher. According to Rabbi Chitrik, the airport authority reached out to him.

Turkey is the 5th largest producer of food in the world and there are 300 factories in Turkey that produce kosher food.

This is a very good idea and certainly a very good service for the kosher community.

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Israel Downs 2 Iranian Drones
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

This is crazy - but true. And it has taken one year before this information was permitted to be made public.

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit announced that F-35 aircraft intercepted two Iranian UAVs, aka drones, enroute to the Gaza Strip. The UAVs were carrying a cargo of pistols.

It happened in March of 2021, just before the start of the 11-day war between Israel and Hamas.

The aircraft that shot the enemy drones down were 'Adir' fighter jets. The announcement did not indicate how many planes were involved in the operation.

This was an obvious – and thankfully failed attempt by Iran to find out if it was possible to "open an axis" of supplying weapons to Gaza using unmanned vehicles.

The interception was coordinated with Israel's neighbors, thereby preventing infiltration into Israel and the drones were tracked by intelligence throughout their journey.

Over the year the IDF has learned much about Iran’s interest in supplying Gaza with weapons.

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Polio in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Some news flashes send a chill up one’s spine.

When Israel’s Health Ministry announced that a child in Jerusalem tested positive for polio, an illness not seen in Israel since 1989, I was stunned and I was saddened.

The ministry added that the 4-year-old child was not vaccinated against the disease as is required.

The Jerusalem regional health administration opened an epidemiological investigation to get specific answers on how this child contracted polio. The office is maintaining contact with the child and his family, providing instructions for those involved in his care.

Clearly, people are not vaccinated against polio. No one knows how many. This is very dangerous.

In Israel, the Health Ministry has records of all vaccinations - they need to check and act fast and vaccinate unvaccinated children.

One new case of polio is one case too many.

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Israel & New Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Rafael Grossi, head of IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, on the eve of Grossi’s trip to Iran to inspect Iranian nuclear development.

According to the Prime Minister's Office, Bennett told Grossi he expected the UN nuclear watch dog to conduct an impartial review of outstanding cases in regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The two men agreed to remain in regular contact.

Bennett has stated more than once that Israel will not be bound by any agreement. That Israel will determine when and if they need to act to protect themselves.

Israel has very little faith that either the United States or the greater international community will do anything to protect Israel.

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Iran Satellite Fails Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has failed, once again, to launch a satellite. This info comes to us by way of satellite pictures.

We know it was a failed launch because when Iranian launches are successful, Iranian state media broadcasts the news for 48 hours straight.

We also know that the attempt failed because we have pictures of a burnt launch pad. These burns and the launchpad looked exactly like previous failed satellite launch attempts.

There have, in the past, been rumors that the other failed launches were due to sabotage.

The big fear of the Western world is that the same technology used by Iran for satellite launches is also used for nuclear and other non-conventional missile rocket launches.

Today, Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — that is only a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. And it is far greater than the nuclear deal’s permitted 3.67% cap.

Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow as international inspectors face challenges in monitoring advances.

Not a good situation.

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No Tax on Your Tank
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

An announcement from Ukraine’s Tax Authority is, to put it bluntly, simply hilarious.  

Ukrainian authorities told Ukrainian taxpayers who captured Russian tanks that the tanks won't be counted as part of citizens' personal income.

Authorities said seized tanks and military equipment need not be declared for tax purposes.  Why, or more precisely, why not? Because they are considered "manifestation of the unity and cohesion of the Ukrainian people".

"Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland!" read a statement from the Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP). 

"There is no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment because the cost of this does not exceed 100 living wages."

That sum equates to about $8,300.

You can’t make this stuff up.

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Israel Will Not Accept Iran Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has let it be known that their government will not respect the Iranian nuclear agreement being cobbled out on Vienna.

On Tuesday Prime Minister Naftali Bennett repeated, once again, that Israel would not be bound by any nuclear deal with Iran and would continue to consider itself free to act against the Iranian nuclear program.

Speaking before a group attending an event about advanced technologies and innovations development of the Mossad, Bennett said: "I said it before, and I’ll say it again, the possible nuclear agreement with Iran doesn't bound Israel, nor does the date in two and a half years that will allow Iran to assemble countless centrifuges."

Israel will act to protect itself. There should be no doubt about that.

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Russia Bombs Babi Yar
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 28, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia will continue to strike at targets in Kyiv. They have already attacked Ukraine's security service and a special operations unit and communications networks.

It was all reported by Russia’s official media, quoting the Russian defense ministry. They told us that the strikes aim to prevent "information attacks" on Russia and urged those near the sites to leave the areas.

And they bombed Babi Yar.

Babi Yar is situated close to the Kyiv television tower. It is a picturesque ravine with a monument that commemorates the horrific Nazi murder of Jews in a massacre that took place on September 29th and 30th in 1941.

The Nazis took 33,771 Jews and brought them to the ravine. And then they shot them. It was the third largest massacre of the Holocaust. First was the massacre at Odessa, in October 1941, where 50,000 Jews were murdered. Second was the Harvest Massacre in Majdanek in November of 1943 where 43,000Jews were slaughtered, shot to death.

There was no reason to strike Babi Yar.

Putin did not break his stride, he did not apologize for hitting a memorial to a Nazi massacre.

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Zelensky asks Bennett to Mediate
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 27, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

Bennett offered humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

And Zelensky suggested that Bennett serve as a mediator between his country and Russia.

Israel is probably the only country in the world that is trusted by both Russia and Ukraine.

The prime minister’s office neither confirmed nor denied reports that Zelensky made the request. Their statement read:

"Prime Minister Bennett reiterated his hope for a speedy end to the fighting, and said that he stands by the people of Ukraine in these difficult days"

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9 November 2023 09:59 PM in Thoughts   ·  Comments (0)   ·  TrackBack (58)



Hackers Hack Russia
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Anonymous is an international hacking collective. And anonymous made it clear to Putin that they are attacking Russia, that they want him out of Ukraine and that they want him to resign.

Anonymous posted their demands on twitter and YouTube.

They have successfully attacked and knocked out 6 government websites including the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin. They have made it very difficult for Russia to get their message out.

They have also taken down the website and transmission of RT TV, the official Russian English-language station.

Anonymous tweeted that they will work to keep these sites down and fight to keep Ukrainian sites and the internet open. According to their tweet:

"Anonymous has ongoing operations to keep .ru government websites offline, and to push information to the Russian people so they can be free of Putin's state censorship machine ...We also have ongoing operations to keep the Ukrainian people online as best we can."

Elon Musk has also shown his support for Ukraine. He has moved satellites to focus on Ukraine and to make certain that their internet and communications are accessible. Musk promised more satellite coverage for Ukraine in the coming days.

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9 November 2023 09:59 PM in Thoughts   ·  Comments (0)   ·  TrackBack (9)



Putin Speaks to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi spoke with Vladimir Putin and pledged support for Russia.

Iran also made it illegal for citizens of Iran to criticize Russia.

And yet, some brave Iranians went out to protest Russia’s action and many more took to social media to slam Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Iranians are defying their leadership and they are protesting the Russia action.
One very large protest took place in Tehran, the Iranian capital.

Iranian protestors were celebrated and supported by tweeters from around the world who reiterated the Iranian message - that Putin and Iranian leadership are linked.

Russia and Putin have very few supporters. In fact, Iranian leadership and Chinese leadership are probably their only supporters

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Mansour Abbas Meets Jewish Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 24, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Mansour Abbas is the head of Ra’am, the United Arab List party, which currently sits in the Israeli government.

Abbas met with a delegation from the Conference of Major American Jewish Organizations which recently held their conference in Jerusalem. He met the delegation in the Knesset.

Abbas is a smart politician. Since joining Bennett’s government, Mansour Abbas has met with quite a few Jewish groups and Jewish leaders. He explained his mission this way:

“We Arabs in Israel are the bridge that can create hope for the two peoples living together in the holy land, based on the vision of Jews and Arabs living together in security, peace and mutual respect … This can bring light to the entire world.”

Abbas is aware that American Jews are very concerned about Jewish Arab tensions. The perception is that there is tension. His meetings will allow for direct funding form American Jews to Arab communities.

This is a win-win in many ways.

Arabs in Israel will win by getting much needed money from American Jews. American Jews win by learning about the complexity of integrating Arabs into Israeli society. And Israel wins as American Jews recognize that the Arabs of Israel are full members of Israeli society.

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Iran Returns COVID Shots
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has returned 820,000 out of the 1 million anti-COVID shots that were donated by Poland to help Iran.

The shots that were returned are from the United States and Britain. They were produced by AstraZeneca.

Iranian Healthy spokesperson Mohammad Hashemi said: “But when the vaccines arrived in Iran, we found out that 820,000 doses of them which were imported from Poland were from the United States.”

And then he added: “after coordination with the Polish ambassador to Iran, it was decided that the vaccines would be returned.”

As far back as 2020, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, rejected any possibility of American or British vaccines entering the country. He called them “forbidden."

135,000 Iranians have died from COVID.

Iran has the highest death rate from COVID in the Middle East. 90% of Iranian adults over 18 have had two shots. Only 37% have received a third shot.

Iran has been relying on Sinopharm, the state-backed Chinese anti-COVID vaccine, but also offers Iranian citizens a smorgasbord of other shots to choose from, including Russia’s Sputnik V, Indian firm Bharat’s Covaxin and its own Iranian vaccine called COVIran Barekat shot. British-Swedish owned AstraZeneca makes up a substantial amount of Iran’s inoculations.

But they still need more.

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Putin Does Not Care
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

This will give you a sense of who Vladimir Putin. What he’s like as a leader. An idea of what he thinks of the United States. And especially, what Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks of US President Joe Biden.

Putin did not watch, he did not even listen to, Joe Biden’s speech announcing sanctions against Russia after Russian forces marched into cities that Putin claims to be Russian.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that information. He said – not explained, plain out said, that Putin was in a meeting.

The defiance of Vladimir Putin was broadcast all over Russia.

The dis was heard around the world.

Not even listening to the president of the United States was a blatant act of arrogance.

The President of Russia does not give a hoot what the President of the United States has to say.

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Iran's Red Lines
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:


What is Iran’s bottom line in the nuclear talks with the West? What are Iranian expectations?

This is what we know for sure:

The Iranian parliament issued a list of conditions that need to be met before they rejoin the now infamous 2015 agreement termed the nuke deal.

Even with that condition, in typical Iranian tradition, there is a caveat: There are 290 members of the Iranian Parliament, known as the Majlis, and the parliament will need to vote and approve the agreement.

This is what they Iranians want:

1 - a guarantee that the parties will not back out of the agreement

2 – assurance that snapback mechanisms will not be triggered

3 – lifting of all sanctions against Iran

It is unlikely that all three of these conditions will be met - maybe two, but not all three.

Will that be enough – or will these diplomatic games continue to be played?

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Israel COVID Winding Down
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 20, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is moving out of their fifth round of COVID.

Numbers are coming down and the country is beginning to re-open.

Israel is opening up internally, for locals, and opening up for outsiders.

Borders will be open to everyone – and everyone means even those who are unvaccinated.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, along with Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz. announced that students will no longer need to take their weekly COVID tests. The rapid tests that families were given and were asked to administer every week, to each child attending school, can be stored away.

Israel has shifted gears.

Israeli leadership is convinced that the country is almost completely out of COVID risk.

It was a long road to get to his point. This is more than simply good news.

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Israeli Strawberry in Guinness
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 18, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli strawberry has made it into the Guinness Book of World records as the largest strawberry in the world. This Israeli-grown strawberry broke the record previously held by Japan since 2015.

The strawberry weighed in at 289 grams, that’s 10.19 ounces - more than half a pound. The type of strawberry is called Ilan. It is 7 inches long and 4 inches thick and a whopping 13. 4 inches in circumference.

The strawberry was grown in Kadima Zoran, near Netanya in central Israel, by the Ariel family.

This prizewinning strawberry was picked a year ago and put in a freezer because of Guinness issues about certifying its entry.

As and aside, I can attest to the exactitude and the paperwork required by Guinness and their record keeping. I was a Guinness judge. I judged the largest falafel in the world.

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Drones Are the Future of War
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Drones are the futire of war.

Israel downed a drone sent into Israel by Hezbollah. It was a spy drone. Its purpose was to monitor and transmit information about the best ways to cross borders and enter Israel.

The drone was not shot down – that was not Israel’s intention. Instead, it was downed via hacking, allowing Israel to then take over the controls and then land the enemy drone where it wanted it to land.

In a speech he delivered earlier in the week in a tv broadcast, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that Hezbollah is using drones. Nasrallah said that they are manufacturing drones. He also said that Hezbollah now has the technology to transform unguided rockets into precision missiles. Nasrallah explained that “Iranian experts” taught them how to accomplish these military goals.

Israel is obviously concerned. The new technology can pick at Israel’s defense and possibly strike sensitive targets within Israel.

This newly captured and downed drone will help Israel defend itself against Hezbollah and other enemies.

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US To Buy Israeli Boat Drones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 16, 2022

I’ve Been Thinking:

Wednesday February 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The United States is going to purchase new Israeli defense technology – drone boats.

Drone boats are unmanned vessels that are controlled by operators with joy sticks sitting miles, or even tens of miles, away from the vessels. The drones are armed and they are outfitted with exceptional sophisticated video equipment that sends back real time images.

Unmanned drone boats are similar to arial drones in that they can observe and attack without risk to any troops. They can also just sit quietly and watch. Those are big bonuses in terms of defense technology.

And like flying drones, these vary in size depending on their specialty.

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Gazans Are fed Up!
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

It’s becoming apparent that more and more people in Gaza are just fed up with Hamas and their leadership in Gaza.

#TheyKidnappedGaza is a campaign on social media that is making headway among Gazans.

In a tweet about Hamas leadership, Sad Abdalah tweeted: “Thieves can’t build a state that takes care of the interests of its people, just as they can’t liberate an occupied homeland.”

On his Facebook page Amin Abed of Gaza posted: “…Gaza is the only place in the world where, when you go forward, you go backward thanks to its rulers.”

He explained that the campaign is intended “to make the ruler [Hamas] aware of its responsibilities after reaching an unbearable level of injustice and deterioration in all aspects of life.”

Gazans who tweet and post about Hamas in unflattering and critical language are putting their lives and the lives of their families at risk. They may be arrested or even murdered for speaking against Hamas.

But they’re willing to take the risk. Because that’s how very much they want change.

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Pfizer & Israel in Trials for Omicron Shot
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is taking part in a Pfizer medical trial. That should not come as a surprise.

They are participating in the testing of a COVID shot developed for Omicron. The trials will take place at Sheba Medical Center, in Tel Aviv. Israelis who have not received their fourth shot are eligible to take part in the study.

Pfizer and Israel have developed a very good relationship during COVID.

Israel was the perfect partner for Pfizer because of the nature of their medical system which is, on the one hand, developed and sophisticated – and on the other hand, is a socialist system.

Israel’s medical system is also very well organized with national health data feeding into central computer systems. This system allows for almost immediate reporting on the status of illnesses and shots as well as demographics and the locations of outbreaks.

This relationship between Pfizer and the Israeli medical system will certainly continue even, as we hope, COVID finally recedes.

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Hamas Warns Israel - Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 13, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Once again, Hamas issued a warning to Israel.

If Israel continues to clash with Arabs in the Sheik Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem, Hamas warned, there will be a repeat of last year’s mini war with Gaza.

According to the terror group: "Israel will pay the price for its actions and the attempts to expel the residents of Sheikh Jarrah … The resistance has threatened Israel in the past and also faced the threat. The 'Guardian of the Wall' campaign began from Jerusalem and spread to the West Bank and into Israeli cities. We will not hesitate to begin such a campaign again."

This is not an empty threat - but it is not totally realistic either.

There are many factors to be considered before conflict with Gaza erupts. One part of the calculus of is when and how Israel responds to the attacks from Gaza. Another is how dramatic rocket strikes are and the intensiveness of the attacks.

Finally, there is the question of Israeli casualties. Israeli leadership will not stand idly by when Israelis are injured or killed.

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Iran Says Saudis are Jews
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian Navy said on Bushehr TV that the Saudi Royal family is Jewish. This was not a compliment. It was an insult and a theological attack.

He was saying that the conflict between Iran and the Saudis goes back to the 7th Century, to the battles between the first Muslims and the Jewish tribes in Arabia.

General Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian navy said: “We cannot bear to see injustice in a Muslim country that is perpetrated by the Zionists and the seed of the Jews.”

In a clear reference to the assassination by the United States of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC Quds Brigade, he said: “[We cannot bear to see] that Muslims are being slaughtered by people who call themselves Christians but are not.”

And in a clear reference to the Saudis. General Tangsiri said: “These are the very same Jews — and I’d better say Zionists — whose hearts have never aligned with Islam, and even with the Prophet in his time.”

He continued: "The grudge that the enemies harbored towards Soleimani resembles their grudge towards Imam Hussein in Karbala." This was a reference to the battle in which Ali, the son in law of Muhammed, was brutally killed. Ali was the first imam of Shia Muslims, and to the battle in which he was killed, which became a formative event for Shia Islam.

This tirade was a direct attack against the Saudis and a call to all Shiites to understand that the Sunni Saudis are enemies - just like Israel.


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Israel De-Criminalize Cannabis
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Things are changing fast. It is a new era.

Cannabis, pot, marijuana, call it what you will, it is now decriminalized in Israel.

Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar published draft regulations making self-use of cannabis an administrative offense, rather than a criminal offense.

There are, however, some exceptions. The use of these substances by minors, soldiers, police and guards on duty are all exceptions.

Fines for use will be up to 1000 NIS.

This new status does not mean it is legal - rather it means that it is not criminal. No trial. No prison.

Smoking cannabis in Israel is now just like underage drinking or cigarette smoking.

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Russian Navy in Black Sea
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 10, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Don’t be surprised, but - the Russian navy held exercises in the Black Sea.

Six Russian navy ships are situated near Crimea.

They announcement that this move was coming was made in January. It is happening now. The original announcement was that the Russian navy ships would engage in simultaneous exercises in the Pacific to the Atlantic and including the Mediterranean.

But it is the Black Sea that is most worrisome.

Ukraine is on the Black Sea. And that means that the Russians are on another Ukrainian flank.

This is yet another move of intimidation by Russia to Ukraine and by extension, to the rest of the world.

Not long ago the United States sent ships into the Black Sea to check Russian activity. When the Russians responded, the United States turned and left the region.

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Gulf States Demand of Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 9, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Arab Gulf States have lost their patience with Lebanon and with the terrorist organization Hezbollah, the Iran sponsored terrorist organization which exerts tremendous power in Lebanon.

Kuwait has delivered a list of expectations to Lebanon.

The list was probably approved by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Included in the list is taking back national control of Lebanon - that means control over Hezbollah. It includes increased security in Lebanon. The Gulf States also expect a curbing of the sale of drugs to Gulf States. And they want a commitment that elections will take place as scheduled, in May.

In response, the leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said:
"Lebanon is a sovereign country and should not be sent dictates.”

Once again, Iran is continuing to sow turmoil in the Middle East.

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Stop a Cell Hack
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Cell phone hacking has become a big and all-consuming topic of interest and of debate in Israel.

Israeli technology has been utilized to hack phones across the world and also, to the chagrin of Israelis, at home.

In Israel, police were hacking – among others, numerous politicians and their families. And they did it without court orders. And they’ve been doing it for a while. In fact, it may have been evidence gathered from former Prime Minister Netanyahu’s son’s cell phone that furthered the police investigation against his father.

Kaspersky Labs, world renowned hackers themselves, has given Israelis a quick set of tools to make certain that they are not hacked.

# 1 Restart device daily

# 2 Delete unknown apps

# 3 Keep apps up to date

# 4 Do not click on anything unfamiliar

Also, iPhone users should cancel iMessage and Facetime and they should not use Safari or Google Chrome.

If a hacker really wants in, they will get in. But this advice will help protect all of us from cell phone hackers.

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Iran's Red Line
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has finally made it official.

The Iranian “red line” for returning to the Nuke Deal is the removal of all sanctions – that’s right, all sanctions.

Nuke talks with Iran have been taking place in Vienna. The talks have been on again and off again.

The Iranians has been dragging their feet. The United States and the other P-5+1 participants want Iran to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iran has made their level of interest perfectly clear. "The issue of removal of sanctions and Iran benefiting from it is Iran's red line in the talks," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said.

It came as no surprise. We all knew this was Iran’s bottom line. The Iranians, master manipulators that they are, were constantly putting off moving into a more serious discussion until it was time to announce their red line.

Now that we know, one looming question remains. And that question is: Will the US and the West capitulate to Iran’s demand.

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Kuwait Ban Gal Gadot
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 6, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait has banned the showing of the Hollywood remake of Agatha Christie’s great murder mystery “Death on the Nile”

Why the ban? It’s about politics, not production or creativity. It’s because Israeli actress Gal Gadot stars in the movie.

Kuwait also banned the blockbuster movie “Wonder Woman” in which Gadot had the starring role.

Unlike many of Kuwait’s neighboring countries, Kuwait does not believe in normalizing relations with Israel. The government’s official terminology when referring to Gal Gadot is "former soldier in the Zionist occupying army".

FYI Gadot was a fitness instructor in the IDF.

Unlike the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain who signed agreements with Israel and are normalizing relations, Kuwait is still very old school.

There are many people in the Arab world who see this movie and the classic movie “Cleopatra”, which starred Elizabeth Taylor, as violations of their heritage and history. The movies take place on their land and they do not want an Israeli or any Westerner treading on their literal or figurative territory.

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Abbas Succession
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 5, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Central Council is a decision-making body of the PLO. It is composed of 141 people - and it has not met since 2018.

The Council has called for a 2-day meeting to set plans for what appears to be the succession of 86-year-old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas was last elected PA president in 2005 and has not been re-elected since. He has heart problems and recently suffered other health issues. Succession is on everyone’s mind.

According to the information we have, two people will be taking new positions as replacements for Abbas.

Hussein Al Sheikh (61 years old) will become the secretary general of the PLO’s Executive Committee. Rawhi Fattoouh (73 years old) will become the head of the PLO’s National Council.

Both men are insiders. They are both trusted advisers of Abbas. Neither of them symbolizes change or deviation in any way form Abbas’ style and objectives.

Nonetheless, this seems to be a step in the right direction.

But the transition may not be as smooth and uncomplicated as the Palestinian Central Council hopes for. There are many people within the Palestinian Authority who are laying claim to the mantel of leadership. And when Abbas can no longer lead, I predict serious tensions and even violence.

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Anne Frank New Book
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 4, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A huge uproar has been brewing about a new book on Anne Frank.

This new book asserts that the Frank family’s hiding place was given up to the Nazis by a Jewish notary.

The European Jewish Congress (EJC) which represents 42 Jewish communities of Europe has asked the publisher to pull the book titled “The Betrayal of Anne Frank: A Cold Case Investigation”. According to the EJC, the book damages the reputation of Anne Frank and will cause even more Jew hatred.

Several scholars have said the conclusions drawn by this work are dubious.

Moshe Kantor, EJC president, sent a note to Harper Collins, the book’s publisher. In his note Kantor explained that the book poses a "potentially incendiary claim... at a time when anti-Semitism and the denial and distortion of the Holocaust are on the rise.”

Kantor continued: "In our view, the publication...has deeply hurt the memory of Anne Frank, as well as the dignity of the survivors and the victims of the Holocaust.”

The thing about history, is that eventually, the truth comes out. Mistakes are common when retelling and writing history - some are larger mistakes and some are smaller. It is my belief that we should let historians and analysts argue it out.

It is never good to be on the side of censorship.

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Israel Offers to Help Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 3, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced that he offered aid to the Lebanese army.

Lebanon is confronting terrible economic and political crisis.

This is what Gantz said: "Unfortunately, Lebanon has become an island of instability. And the citizens of Lebanon are not our enemies, so this year I have offered aid to Lebanon four times, including last week through the commander of UNIFIL."

"We seek to provide focused aid to the Lebanese army, which is suffering from a shortage of basic supplies and has lost more than 5,000 troops that left it recently while Hezbollah is growing in strength under Iran's auspices."

"We've turned the Abraham Accords from a declaration of intent into a reality of economic and security cooperation. These actions strengthen the stability of the region and create a moderate front which includes countries which the agreements with have yet to mature."

"This year, we will have ample opportunities to strengthen these bonds and Israel's security interests. The same goes for European states that help us immensely with our efforts to block Iran, and for other Gulf countries and for Turkey. Assessing the situation soberly, in accordance with our common interests, and while maintaining and strengthening our deep and important alliance with Greece and Cyprus."

Gantz means well.

Thus far, however, Lebanon has not responded to Israel’s gesture.

Hezbollah, which is sponsored by Iran, is a mutual threat to both Lebanon and Israel. This is a perfect example of Machiavelli’s rule “the enemy of my enemy of is my friend.”

With time, hopefully, Lebanon will realize that Hezbollah and Iran are not interested in co-existence, while Israel is ready and willing and able.

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Israelis Create Laser Wall
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 2, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel will be protected by a laser wall of security within the next few months.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that "within about a year, the IDF will implement a laser-based interception system." 

Bennet made his comments while addressing the annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies. He said that the laser security system "will be implemented in the south first, and later elsewhere."

And he added: "The system will allow Israel to be surrounded by a laser wall that will protect it from missiles, rockets, UAVs and other threats."

“If we can intercept a missile or rocket with an electric pulse that costs only a few dollars, we will by all accounts neutralize the ring of fire Iran has set up around our borders.”

The laser system will make Israel safer – and compared to the huge expense of the Iron Dome, the cost will be mere pennies.  

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Omicron New Variant
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 1, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Move over Omicron. COVID-19 has a new variant.

A variant is a spinoff. It occurs when the virus mutates and a new version of it appears. This new variant is not so different from its predecessor.

The old Omicron is called Omicron BA.1 - this one is called BA.2. And it has ripped through Denmark and has been found in 49 other countries including the US.
Scientists are still studying this variant.

According to early studies, BA.2 is 39% more transmissible that BA.1. But one study shows that unlike BA.1, BA.2 is not transmissible if you are vaccinated.

This new variant proves that the Covid 19 virus will continue to adapt as it weakens, or to use the scientific term, attenuates.

In other words, the virus gets weaker but continues to be viable - meaning alive. The virus does not die - it just changes.

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Dahlan Gives 1 Mill COVID Shots to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 31, 2022
I've Been Thinking:


Mohamad Dahlan has secured 1 million COVID shots and delivered them to Gaza through Egypt.

Dahlan is from Gaza - but he now lives in Abu Dhabi, in UAE. He moved there because his life was in jeopardy within the Palestinian Authority for challenging President Abbas.

And now Mohammed Dahlan is the major challenger to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Procuring these vaccines was an important humanitarian move by Dahlan. It showed that he cares about the lives of Palestinians. So far, 1744 Palestinians have died from COVID.

The vaccine is the Russian version called Sputnik V and this is the single largest shipment of COVID vaccine to date.

Dahlan may be very popular with Palestinians, but he is persona non grata in the PA. He was tried in absentia and found guilty of challenging Abbas publicly.

This humanitarian act of obtaining vaccines for the people of Gaza seems to be a strategic power play by Dahlan. Abbas is 86 years old – no matter how hard he tries, he will not be able to remain PA president forever.

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Israeli Boy Gets COVID 3 Times
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 30, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Alon Helfgott, an 11 year old boy from Kfar Saba, Israel has had COVID-19 three times. He has had three different variants of the corona virus.

Alon contracted the Alpha variant, then the Delta variant and now he has Omicron.

And despite it all, he is maintaining a positive attitude.

According to this upbeat 11 year old: “I’m fine, feeling pretty healthy, without so many symptoms … During the Alpha [infection], I suffered from a high fever … My mother bought me some sweets at the supermarket and I hope I get more things,”

Helfgott reports that around 10 out of his 27 classmates are also currently ill with COVID-19. He acknowledged that: “I miss being with friends, because the truth is there is nothing to do. You’re shuttered at home and do nothing.”

Like most children with COVID, Alon’s biggest hurdle is boredom. He’s in isolation and alone - except for his phone.

Having COVID-19 three times is truly a unique experience.

I wish Elon Helfgott a speedy and complete recovery.

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Israeli Song Viral in Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli comedienne wrote a song called “Dubai Dubai” and the song is going viral in the Arabic world.

“Dubai Dubai” is a lampoon on the Abraham accords.

The name of the songwriter / comedienne is Noam Shuster-Eliassi. Singing her song in perfect, unaccented, Arabic, she pokes fun at Israel and at the Arab world.

Here are some of the lines from this song/satire.

“Israel goes to make peace with a country 1,500 miles away and forgets the Palestinians next door.”

“In Dubai, they forgot the siege on Gaza.”

“How nice would it be if only all the Arabs were from Dubai.”

Humor is such a wonderful vehicle for dealing with tensions and problems.

The Arabic world is not free to create their own humor. Monarchies are autocratic and even those states which have elections and presidents are not really totally free democracies. Humor about and criticism of the government is punished.

The comedienne, Noam Shuster-Eliassi is an Israeli woman singing in the style of Eurovision to Israelis and Arabs. Her audiences relate to her observations. Her video viewers even laugh out loud.

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Turkish Israeli Relations
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 29, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that he will host Israeli President Isaac Herzog for an official visit to Turkey as early as next month.

Details, including the final date for the visit and its duration, were still being discussed between the two countries.

Relations between Turkey and Israel have not been good since 2010 when the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish ship filled with activists, attempted to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Israeli commandos boarded the ship.

Six years later, in 2016, Israel decided to pay $21 million to all the Turkish citizens killed in the Israeli raid.

Things got even worse in 2018 after riots on the Gaza border. Israel responded to the rioting and the violence. And at that point, Turkey withdrew its ambassador from Israel and Israel’s ambassador was asked to leave Turkey.

More recently, when an Israeli couple was arrested for spying in Turkey, the two presidents – Erdogan and Bennett, spoke and working together, they helped free the couple.

And even more recently than that, the Turkish president called Herzog to offer condolences on the death of his mother.

The biggest bone of contention between Israel and Turkey is that Turkey has given refuge to Hamas leadership. The latest word on the street is that Erdogan has asked Hamas leadership to leave, that they have short visas and that some Hamas leaders have been detained and even deported.

Israel is not certain that all that is verifiable. They do not trust Erdogan. Regardless of what Turkey says, the Turks are still major supporters of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

Will the visit actually happen? Time will tell.

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S Korea Paid UN Dues for Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 26, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

South Korea paid $18 million to the United Nations. The $18 million was to cover the cost of Iran’s dues. Iran was $18 million in arrears.

Being in arrears is nothing new for Iran. They are annually delinquent in paying their membership dues.

Sanctions that have been placed on Iran make it very difficult for them to meet their international commitments. To accommodate, the United States relaxed restrictions and permitted the release of $7 billion dollars from Iranian accounts that were in South Korean banks. The money was released specifically in order for Iran to pay debts - like the dues owed to the UN.

The South Korean Ministry of Finance confirmed the payment to the UN in Iran’s name. The statement from South Korea read: “Iran’s right to vote at the General Assembly is expected to be restored immediately with the payment”.

It’s all part of a game called international diplomacy.

Iran really needed their status restored in the UN.

Iran really wants to be a world leader and you cannot be a world leader if you are locked out of the United Nations.

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ISIS on the Rise
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 25, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is having a resurgence.

There was a prison break in Northeast Syria.

100 ISIS terrorist in heavily equipped vehicles blew up the gates of Gweiran Prison in the city of Hasakeh. The prison housed 1,000 ISIS prisoners, many of them leaders of the ISIS movement.

This prison break was not just about freeing ISIS leaders. Its purpose was to let it be known and clearly understood that ISIS is still around.

As a result of the break, a massive battle ensued. Numbers are unclear but there were many dead and many left wounded. The ISIS claim is that 800 prisoners escaped.

This prison is one of about 10 prisons that the United States runs together with the Syrian Kurdish forces known as the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF).

ISIS is making a real play for power. This is just step one. Stay tuned for step two.

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Iran Weeks from a Bomb
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 24, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli experts say that Iran is only weeks away from having nuclear weapons.

The Institute for National Security Studies of Israel prepares an annual survey to be delivered to Israel’s president and prime minister. It is a survey of events from the past year and a set of predictions for the future.

The most important take away from this year’s report is that Iran has reached the status of having the ability to put a nuclear bomb together in just two weeks.

The report also draws attention to Iran’s proxies on Israel’s borders. Iran is sponsoring Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, increasing tensions on Israel’s borders.

Finally, the survey predicted that as Palestinians get more and more frustrated by the lack of movement in the conflict between Israelis and the Palestinians, there will be increased anger and terror directed at Israelis by Palestinians.

The report speaks of a stalemate in the peace process. That stalemate might even challenge the democratic nature of Israel.


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Gaza Supports Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 23, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Islamic Jihad organized a rally in Gaza. It was a combination pro-Iran rally and anti-Saudi Arabia protest.

Protesters shouted “Death to the House of Saud!” They carried posters with pictures of the head of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the group that is fighting against the Yemeni establishment supported by the Saudis.

Hamas controls Gaza, but this time they neither participated nor did they prevent this protest and rally from taking place.

Hamas is worried.

They want Saudi support to help build Gaza’s infrastructure. They need Saudi Arabia to contribute to Gaza.

Hamas made a mistake.

The rally in support of the Houthis was plastered all over the press. It was covered in Arabic media and English-language media throughout the Middle East and Europe. Gaza was portrayed as supporting the Houthis and condemning Saudi Arabia.


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Russia Playing for the Mideast
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 22, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Russia wants to be the leader of the world. And part of the Russian plan is to be power broker to the Middle East.

The Russians want to outplay the United States and the West in every way – most particularly, when it comes to Iran.

So how does Russia plan on executing their plan?

The Russians proposed an interim agreement with Iran.

According to their agreement, sanctions relief will be instituted in exchange for the reimposition of some restrictions on the Iranian nuke program.

Both Russia and Iran have been mum on the exact details of the agreement. US officials are either totally in the dark or not divulging any knowledge of the details.

Truthfully, I can’t imagine that this interim proposal is any different from the proposals that the P5+1 have already proposed.

The one difference is that this proposal came from Russia and not from the West.

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Turkish Prez Hires Israeli MD
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 21, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Turkey and Israel have had a very cold relationship over the past few years.

Lately, however, that relationship is beginning to slowly thaw.

But how do you judge how well the relationship is progressing?

Foreign ministers spoke for the first time in years.

Trade is picking up.

And – and this is very interesting, Turkish President Erdogan has hired an Israeli doctor to treat him.

Professor Itzhak Shapira, a cardiologist and the deputy general of Sourasky Medical Center in Tel Aviv was hired by the Turkish president. In addition to President Erdogan, Shapira also advises other world leaders.

When media outlets got the news that Erdogan had hired an Israeli doctor, his PR spin doctors sent the Turkish president out to the basketball court as a whole team of journalists watched him shoot hoops.

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Israel Changes School Policy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 20, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has changed their policy on COVID and schooling.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced that students who come in contact with confirmed COVID positive patients, will NOT need to isolate.

He also said that every student must test twice a week. And the government will send antigen tests to the families of every school age child.

The message Bennet was sending is that parents need to be responsible and not send sick students to school.

The prime minister said that school children must stay in school.

Studies clearly say that children who are double vaccinated are, depending in the study, either two or four times more protected than unvaccinated youth. One study reported that children vaccinated within the past two months are better protected against the Omicron variant than unvaccinated children or children who received the shot more than two months ago.

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Raisi To Moscow
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 19, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday January 19, 2022

I’ve Been Thinking:

I pay attention to the travel plans of world leaders.

And it was very telling to learn that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was visiting Moscow and meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Iran and Russia are working together in several areas - the most obvious of all is Syria.

Both Russia and Iran have propped up Syrian President Assad. They have secured his political position and they are helping him retake most of the country.

But - and this is a serious “but” - Russia is not happy with some of what Iran is doing in Syria and the Russians want to reel Iran in.

You can be certain that Raisi and Putin also spoke about the nuke talks in Vienna and the development of Iran’s nuke plan.

They also spoke about Israel.

Putin spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett only a few days before meeting with Raisi. Putin, without a doubt, updated Raisi on Israel’s position on Iran and gave him his thoughts on whether Israel is truly prepared to attack Iran and how powerful that strike would be.

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Houthi Drone Hits UAE
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 18, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

A drone attack by the Houthi, Yemen’s rebels, in Abu Dhabi - the heart of the UAE, might be the shot heard round the world in 2022.

For years there has been a move to build bridges in the Middle East. This drone attack, which killed three people, hit fuel trucks near the Aby Dhabi airport and caused multiple explosions, has everyone in the Middle East talking and asking questions.

In order to get from Yemen to the UAE, the drone had to lift off from Yemen, enter the Gulf of Aden and then the Arabian Sea. At this point the drone needed to turn in to the Gulf of Oman, round the corner and enter the Persian Gulf, pass Dubai and then, finally, arrive at Abu Dhabi.

This was a very well-planned attack with a very sophisticated weapon.

In response to the drone attack, the UAE and Saudi Arabia sent a counterattack against Sana’a the capital of Yemen. That attack killed at least 12 people. It was the deadliest bombardment in the city since 2019.

The Houthis have promised to continue to attack with their drones.

The back story in this whole episode is that the Houthis are sponsored by - Iran.


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Iran UN Dues
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 17, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

For the second year in a row Iran, was unable to pay their dues at the United Nations.

That means that, once again, Iran will not be able to participate in any of the votes on UN committees or in the General Assembly.

The minimum Iran needs to pay the UN is $18 million.

US sanctions have made it difficult - if not impossible, for Iran to get the money they need. Although the United States did free up $7 billion for Iran from a South Korean bank, it was too late.

Under the UN charter, if a member country’s arrears are equal to or exceed the amount of dues it should have paid over the preceding two years, that country’s voting rights are suspended until payment is made.


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Muslims Must Speak Up
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 16, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Muslims in America have started to respond to the Muslim who took four Jews hostage in their synagogue in Texas.

The most significant of the responses came from a Muslim professor who teaches at the Divinity School at Duke University in North Carolina.

Abdullah T. Antepli said the time has come for Muslims to stand up and realize that this culture of hatred must be addressed. He saw this act of terror as a “moral call for action for the soul of Islam and Muslim” to address senseless, blind, hatred towards Jews.

For too long there has been a deafening silence after the many acts of violence against Jews in the United States and around the world.

The time has come for Muslim leadership to step up and condemn the evil of these acts.

Thank you Professor Antepli for taking the leadership helm.

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Jew Hatred from Utah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 15, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

David Bateman, a major Republican donor form Utah, claimed that Pope Francis was a secret Jewish agent. Bateman qualified his statement saying the Pope has “love for the Jewish people.”

That wasn’t all he had to say about Jews.

On Instagram, David Bateman wrote: "heart breaks for [the Jews'] multi-millennial plight wherein they were driven from country to country. Robbed. Beaten. Denied voting rights, and exterminated over and over again."

He continued: "My beef is with the Khabbalist [sic] central banking, secret society Jews. Not the amazing, humble, and industrious Jewish people."

The qualification to his statements just makes Bateman’s comments worse. According to his statements, he has a problem with Jewish bankers, meaning wealthy secret society Jews. But no problem with humble working - class Jews.

I find that hard to believe.

Either way - Shame on you David Bateman.

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Hezbollah Host Rebel Conference
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah from Lebanon hosted a conference supporting the rebels in Saudi Arabia.
Challenge Saudi Arabia in Lebanon, when the majority of Lebanon supports Saudi Arabia and wants Saudi support to help rebuild Lebanon, seems rather counter intuitive. It takes gall.

Lebanon is in dire need of help from the Saudis. This move by Hezbollah speaks volumes.

A large part of internal Lebanese tension is due to the actions of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s support for the rebels in Saudi Arabia was the reason Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador from Lebanon and banned all imports from Lebanon.

Throughout the conference, Hezbollah officials repeatedly told Saudi Arabia to stop “bullying”.

Everyone in attendance at the conference was allied with Iran. Iranian support was their common denominator.

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Russia &Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 14, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are between the United States and Russia are increasing. There are several issues of contention.

Israel has entered into the dialogue of one of those issues – Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had a substantial phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They spoke about Iran, especially the Iranian nuclear program and the talks taking place in Vienna about Iran’s nuke plan.

Bennett and Putin also spoke about security in the Middle East, about Syria and about Lebanon. They spoke about continued cooperation between their countries.

Bennett made it very clear to Putin that Israel was carefully watching Iran. He made it clear that no matter what is decided in Vienna, it will not stop Israel from striking Iran if they cross the line.

At the end of the call, Putin invited Bennett and his wife to visit Russia.

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Taliban Visit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 12, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

The foreign minister of Iran met with the Taliban foreign minister in Teheran.

After the meeting Iranian leadership announced that they are not yet ready to recognize the Taliban government of Afghanistan.

In the meantime, they decided to have future meetings and, Iran announced, they will continue to send humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.

It is important to remember that Iran and Afghanistan share a border – a very long border – 921 miles. That is the distance between new York City and Minneapolis or NYC and Des Moines, Iowa. There have been border conflicts between the two since August, that is when the Taliban forced the United States to leave Afghanistan.

Iran has a long memory. They reminded the Taliban that in 1998 Taliban terrorists kidnapped and murdered Iran’s ambassador to Afghanistan in the Iranian consulate.

Iran said that the Taliban has never taken responsibility for the murder and the terror.

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New Combined Variant
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 11, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

DeltaOcron was just discovered in Cyprus. The discovery was made by a professor of biology.

DeltaOcron, as the name implies, is the combination of two COVID-19 variants, Delta and Omicron.

This was the first discovery of this combination variant. The professor said that he found the combination variant in hospitalized patients.

He said: "We do not know if the combined strain will take over and be more common than Delta or Omicron, but for now, it seems that Omicron is the most contagious strain."

This new COVID discovery definitely needs to be watched.

Since the discovery this has been disporved as a lab mishap.

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Iran Sanctions US
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 8, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

This is funny, It is a game being played by Iran.

Iranian leadership has declared that they are imposing sanctions against 51 Americans. They claim that these 51 Americans were responsible for the assassination of Qassem Suleimani in 2020.

Iran is calling the assassination an act of terrorism and a violation of human rights.

Iran can now seize the assets of the 51 Americans – their assets in Iran. Of course, none of the 51 have any assets in Iran.

This entire episode is a symbolic attack against the United States. In reality, it means nothing.

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PA Leader Son Deported from Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 7, 2022
I've Been Thinking:

Ramy Shaath, son of Palestinian leader Nabil Shaath, was deported from Egypt.

Shaath the father is a senior adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. That means that his son, Ramy, is from one of the most public and entitled families in the region.

Ramy Shaath has been in pretrial confinement in Egypt since 2019, accused of having ties with the Muslim Brotherhood. That could mean that he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood or that he was a fixer for them - connecting and making contacts to help the Muslim Brotherhood fight Israel.

Egypt has designated the Muslim Brotherhood as illegal and as a terrorist group. Part of Ramy’s agreement and deportation was that he renounce his Egyptian citizenship.

In other words, this agreement means that there was a diplomatic agreement allowing him out of detention, stopping a prosecution and facilitating a deportation. Ramy Shaath should consider himself lucky – very lucky.

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Dutch Says No $ for PA Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Netherlands has announced that they will no longer be funding the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC), a Palestinian NGO that has so far received approximately $25 million of Dutch taxpayer money. They announced that UAWC will not be receiving the next installment of Dutch aid.

The decision was made by both the Dutch minister of foreign development and the Dutch minister of foreign affairs. In a statement made to the Dutch parliament the ministers revealed that their audit “has made it sufficiently plausible that there have been ties at the individual level between employees and board members of UAWC and the PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) for some time.”

“The large number of UAWC board members with a dual mandate is particularly worrisome … For the Cabinet, the findings about individual ties between UAWC and the PFLP and the lack of openness about this from UAWC, also during the investigation, are sufficient reason to no longer fund UAWC’s activities.”

They made it clear that there was no official link between the UAWC and the PFLP. But what concerned them was that 34 UAWC employees were members of PFLP and 12 hold leadership positions.

This was all proven through internet research investigations. It was all right there for the public to see.

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Iran Fails To Put Paylaods into Orbit
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran recently failed to put three payloads into orbit.

I watched several videos of the launch.
Official Iranian media did not mention the failure.

Iran has failed numerous times before. To their credit, on the other hand, they have successfully launched a few satellites into orbit. But they have failed more than they have succeeded.

This time the problem was that the rocket just did not make it up to the speed necessary to push the payloads into orbit. “For a payload to enter orbit, it needs to reach speeds above 7,600 [metres per second]. We reached 7,350,” spokesman, Ahmad Hosseini, said in a documentary about the launch vehicle broadcast on state TV and posted online on Friday.

It is very important to note that Iran has both a space program and a ballistic missile/rocket program. In order to launch any part of the space program they use rockets. The programs are linked.

Iran will continue to develop their space program. The space program is not against any international agreements. It is the ballistic missile program which is not permitted.

But Iran is doing it anyway.

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Israel's 2021 Exports Break Records
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is the end of the year 2021, an appropriate and natural time to take a look at end of year business numbers.

Despite COVID, Israel’s exports hit a record of $140 billion worth of exports in 2021. That is an increase of 18% over last year 2020.

To understand the enormity of the number - in the year 2019, Israeli exports were a comparatively mere $117.5 billion.

Also this year - for the first time – services exceeded goods in exports… meaning 51% of Israel’s exports were services, including startups, while goods and products produced in Israel composed 49% of their exports.

Another business highlight for Israel in 2021 was the entry of the Israeli unit of Teva Pharmaceutical into the medical cannabis market. Teva Israel signed an agreement with Tikun Olam Cannbit, an Israeli cannabis company.

Under the agreement Tikun Olam will produce cannabis oil and Teva will market it.

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Israel's 2021 Exports Break Records
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is the end of the year 2021, an appropriate and natural time to take a look at end of year business numbers.

Despite COVID, Israel’s exports hit a record of $140 billion worth of exports in 2021. That is an increase of 18% over last year 2020.

To understand the enormity of the number - in the year 2019, Israeli exports were a comparatively mere $117.5 billion.

Also this year - for the first time – services exceeded goods in exports… meaning 51% of Israel’s exports were services, including startups, while goods and products produced in Israel composed 49% of their exports.

Another business highlight for Israel in 2021 was the entry of the Israeli unit of Teva Pharmaceutical into the medical cannabis market. Teva Israel signed an agreement with Tikun Olam Cannbit, an Israeli cannabis company.

Under the agreement Tikun Olam will produce cannabis oil and Teva will market it.

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Alibaba & the PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Alibaba, the very large and very popular Chinese e-commerce site, announced that they will no longer deliver to The Palestinian Authority. The announcement came in the form of a message sent by aliexpress.com.

The decision is not political - it is purely business. It is logistical and is based on a jumbling of packages.

Due to a PA policy, many Alibaba packages have not reached their destinations in the Palestinian Authority.

That’s because the PA postal service will not deliver a package that has Israel as part of the address. It is a matter of policy. But many Palestinians who order from Alibaba put Israel as part of their address.

Alibaba decided that the problems this causes and the damage to their reputation and the inefficiency of non-delivered packages outweighs their gains and their profits.

So they simply cut off the Palestinians.

Since their original announcement, Alibaba has resuming deliveries to the PA.

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Abbas Visits Gantz in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz hosted Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday.

The meeting took place at Gantz’ home in Rosh Haayin.

This is the first time since 2010 that Abbas was in Israel - with the sole exception of Shimon Peres’ funeral in 2016.

The meeting lasted for two and a half hours. Also present were Israeli Major General Rassan Aliyan, Palestinian Minister of Civil Affairs Hussein a Sheik and Palestinian Chief of Intelligence Majed Faraj.

Following the meeting Defense Minister Gantz’s office released this statement:
"The two discussed various security and civilian issues … The defense minister emphasized the shared interest in strengthening security coordination and maintaining stability, and preventing terrorism and violence."

The statement also revealed that Gantz told Abbas that he intends to "further promote bond-building steps in the economic and civilian spheres, as the two agreed on during their last meeting."

This was the second meeting between Benny Gantz and Mahmoud Abbas. Their first took place in August in Ramallah.

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Anti Vax Star of David
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A poster condemning anti-vaxxers with a Star of David on it appeared in two different locations in the Los Angeles area.

One of the posters was displayed outside the Baba Sali Synagogue. The second poster was at Cedar Sinai Medical Center

On these posters, the Star of David, also known as the Magen David, is composed of the letter A and, on top of the letter A, the letter V. It is clearly identifiable as a Star of David.

The posters’ caption reads “Report Anti-Vaxxers, because you care and they don’t,” and includes a telephone number that, according to a local media outlet, went to a restaurant in Hollywood.
Police are investigating.

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Operation Shield the North
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has begun “Operation Shield the North”.

The purpose of this operation is to provide the residents who live in the northern part of Israel with bomb shelters to protect them from rockets and missiles that may be shot into Israel from Lebanon or from Syria.

All total, 21 communities that are situated on the border will have their existing shelters reinforced and new shelters built.

Operation Shield the North came about as a direct result of the 2020 comptrollers report which revealed that 30% of Israelis do not have access to functioning shelters in the event of a bombing.

Israel needs to prepare for an onslaught of rockets from the north. Until now, they have relied on interceptors like the Iron Dome. But interceptors can only shoot down so many rockets and missiles.

Citizens of Israel need to have safe, well built, well protected bomb shelters in which they can – when necessary, hunker down and wait out the storm.

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Maduro to Visit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela announced that he is planning an official visit to Iran. Maduro said that an invitation was extended to him by the Iranian president and that he has accepted the invitation.

Iran and Venezuela are allies. They are joined together because they are both members of OPEC and they both have US sanctions against them.

Iran has helped Venezuela update their oil production and helped get them back on-line. In exchange, because Venezuela was hurting so badly for oil, Iran broke international sanctions and shipped oil to Venezuela.

In an interview on Venezuelan State TV, Maduro said: "I am going to Teheran very soon, for a visit that President (Ebrahim) Raisi offered me, so that we meet in person, to hold conversations and sign new agreements ... and speed up processes of cooperation."

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Israel to Double Population of Golan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced that the Israeli government is planning to double the number of people who live in the Golan Heights.
The government will invest $300 million to lure and entice Israelis to move north.

About 50,000 people now live in the Golan Heights. That population is divided almost evenly between Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs, especially Druze.
Israel captured the Golan Heights from the Syrians during the 1967 Six Day War.
In 1981, Israel annexed the Golan. And on March 25, 2019, under the administration of then-President Donald Trump, the United States recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Most other countries in the world do not recognize that decision.

The Golan Heights is filled with Jewish history. The decision to move more Israelis into the Golan is a strategy to make certain that Israel will not be forced to evacuate the area.

From atop the Golan the entire valley below is in the cross hairs of anyone sitting on the Heights. Keeping the Golan is a security necessity for Israel.

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Israel & the Pfizer
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday, Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and it was agreed that Israel will purchase 100,000 doses of the newly approved Pfizer antiviral drug called Paxlovid.

The FDA approved the drug through their emergency use authorization.
100,000 Paxlovid pills will arrive in Israel this week. According to an announcement released jointly by the Office of the Prime Minister and the Ministry of Health, the pill will be available, at no cost, to those people considered high risk.

Trial tests showed Paxlovid to be extremely effective against COVID, including against the Omicron variant. It reduced death and hospitalizations by 98%.

Talks are also in progress for Israel to purchase large numbers of Merck’s new antirviral pill called Molnupiravir. This pill, too, given emergency use authorization by the FDA this past week.

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Israel Will Open Up to All Soon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Minster of Tourism, Yoel Razvozov, announced that within the next few days and as early as next week, Israel will be lifting restrictions for travel.

The lifting of restrictions means opening up travel and tourism to those who are fully vaccinated, Israelis and tourists visiting Israel, alike.

In an interview with YNET Tourism Minister Razvozov said: "In my opinion, within a week we will be able to open Ben Gurion Airport because there is no point in it being closed and having all the restrictions on vaccinated Israeli citizens and the tourism industry that suffers as well."

In essence, the minister was explaining that restrictions are not helping contain the spread of COVID and the country must reach a balance between public health threats and economic damage.

For many people, this is welcome and long awaited news.

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Israel Invests in New Tourism
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has suffered economically from COVID.

Tourism, which was one of the major staples of the Israeli economy, ground to a halt for two years.

The government of Israel just allocated NIS 235 million, which is about $73 million, for a tourism plan to help rebuild the tourism industry.
NIS 25 million will go towards tour guides, 60 million for incoming tourists and 150 million for hotels.

It is not much money - but it is a start.

The ripple effect of the halt in the tourism industry crosses almost all sectors of Israeli society and industry.

When tourism dries up, agriculture, transportation, safety, entertainment, food, hotels, restaurants – even falafel stands, and technology feel the impact.

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Israel's Goal in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has a simple, single, goal in Syria.
Stop Iran.

Israel’s entire objective is to prevent Iran from expanding their control on land, in politics and in practice.

In effect, Israel wants Iran out of Syria. They want to end all Iranian influence over Syrian activities. That includes the Iranian soldier and military advisers on the ground. It includes major Iranian influences in markets imports and exports.
Israel will continue to strike and hit Iranian military in Syria. They will strike their advisers and they will hit and destroy their equipment.

They will degrade them until they do not come back.

Syrians realize that Iran is putting them in Israel’s crosshairs.

Despite President Bashar Assad having won the civil war that tore Syria apart, there is still neither peace nor quiet in his country – and Syrians know that most of the noise and danger is courtesy of Iran.

Israel will continue on their mission. Iran’s very presence in Syria is a threat to Israel.

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2 Men Named Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It’s ABBAS versus ABBAS.

There are two important people in the Palestinian establishment with the name
Abbas and the confusion that it causes is spreading.
Mahmoud Abbas is head of the Palestinian Authority.

Mansour Abbas is head of the United Arab Party, a member of Knesset and a part of the Israeli government coalition.

Mansour Abbas recently said: “The State of Israel was born as a Jewish state, and it will remain one.” He made the statement while speaking at a conference convened by Globes, Israel’s economic newspaper.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and was outraged by the comments made by ‘the other’ Abbas. His response was: “These irresponsible statements are consistent with the calls of extremists in Israel to displace the Palestinians and harm the status of the blessed al-Aqsa Mosque and the history of the Palestinian people”.

President Mahmoud Abbas added that Knesset member Mansour Abbas represents only himself when he talks about accepting Israel as a Jewish state. He said: “He does not represent the Palestinian people at home and everywhere in the world,” and such remarks “contradict religion, history and Palestinian heritage.”

In a statement released by his office, PA President Abbas accuses the other Abbas of being part of a “current that promotes the Zionist colonial project, … It is unfortunate that instead of siding with the rights of his people and condemning the settlements, killings and displacement committed by the occupation and the plans of Israeli extremists to empty Palestinian lands, we see him repeating the lies of the Zionist movement.”

The reality is that each Abbas has a relationship with Israel and they should both be working together with Israel.

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Italy Permitted Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

They are 40 years late, but Italy is final investigating their role in terror attacks against Jews and Jewish sites in Italy.

Internal documents show that Italian security knew specific details about the 1982 terror attack against the Great Synagogue in Rome during which a 2 year old baby was murdered and 37 people were wounded.

The documents that have been made public show that even though Italy’s security apparatus knew about the attacks, they did not step up protection of the Great Synagogue.

Much later, only 1 of the five Palestinian terrorists who perpetrated this attack was arrested - but for something else. He was arrested because he was crossing the border and entering Turkey with 33 pounds of explosives.
49 years ago Italy decided that supporting Palestinian murderers and terrorists was more important than protecting Italian citizens and Italian historic sites.

This is an embarrassment.

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US Not Happy w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States is not happy with the nuke discussions taking place in Vienna.

The United States is not actually sitting in on in discussions. They send messages through the 5 members in the room with and speaking to Iran.
Jake Sullivan, the US special envoy. has said that the United States “is not pleased.”

Well of course not. The United States wants Iran to comply with return to the 2015 agreement. But that is not what Iran wants. Iran wants a nuclear program and they are moving in that direction. And they want the international community to give them their blessing.

Jake Sullivan, speaking on a webinar, also said the United States has conveyed through European negotiators to Iran its "alarm" over Tehran's "forward progress"
in its nuclear program.

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US Not Happy w Iran Talks
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States is not happy with the nuke discussions taking place in Vienna.
The United States is not actually sitting in on in discussions. They send messages through the 5 members in the room with and speaking to Iran.

Jake Sullivan, the US special envoy. has said that the United States “is not pleased.”

Well of course not. The United States wants Iran to comply with return to the 2015 agreement. But that is not what Iran wants. Iran wants a nuclear program and they are moving in that direction. And they want the international community to give them their blessing.

Jake Sullivan, speaking on a webinar, also said the United States has conveyed through European negotiators to Iran its "alarm" over Tehran's "forward progress" in its nuclear program.

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Iran Hiding Tapes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Somehow, the surveillance tape from Iran’s nuclear centrifuge labs is missing. I hope you’re not surprised.

The IAEA, aka the International Atomic Energy Agency, aka the United Nations watchdog group, has asked for the tapes. The Iranians say the tapes disappeared after and during an attack in June that sabotaged the facility.

The IAEA has asked for the tapes once again.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, is not hopeful that they will get the tapes.
Actually, he is skeptical that that they were, as Iran claims, just lost.

At a news conference when asked if it was credible that the tapes had just vanished, Grossi replied: "We have doubts about that and this is why we are asking, 'Where is it?"'.

"I am hopeful that they are going to come up with an answer because it's very strange that it disappeared."

The are many things that could be on the missing tapes. Things Iran does not want others to see. Most importantly, it may show the secret Iranian contingency plans that go into effect after an attack. The tape may very well show the secret storage and other secret areas that have yet to be exposed or shown to the IAEA.

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Drones Attack US Post in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Drones have become a weapon of choice for Iran and Hezbollah.

Two drones recently entered the area around a base in Syria, located near Tanf, where US forces are still in place. Tanf is just inside Syria, very close to the Iraqi Jordanian border.

The base has been attacked in the past by drones. They are almost certainly Iranian drones.

As the two drones entered the area close to the camp, one was shot down and the other turned and escaped.

US Central Command confirmed the attack and the response.

It is unclear how many US troops and advisers are now there. Certainly, there are many fewer than were there before, but everyone in the Middle East, especially enemies of the United States know Tanf and know US troops are headquartered there.

This camp is a symbol. For enemies of the West, it is the embodiment of the United States. It is a target for enemies of the United States.

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Israel Donates 1 mil Vax to Africa
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced that they are donating 1 million COVID-19 vaccines to Africa.
Relations between Israel and African nations have continued to develop and to improve. The Israeli Foreign Ministry announced that the vaccines will be distributed to 25% of the countries of Africa. There are 54 countries in Africa, so that means Israel will be helping 13 or 14 African nations.

The recipient nations will not be made public.

Israel is donating the vaccines through the UN backed COVAX. The purpose of COVAX is to get vaccines to countries that can’t get them or can’t afford them.

Obviously, wealthy countries bid for and procured vaccines.

Israel strategically expanded their procurement. They emphasized the Pfizer vaccine, but they also bought other vaccines, including 1 million vaccines from AstraZeneca.

Israel does not need those vaccines and so, they are donating them to countries in Africa, in need.

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Palestinians Prefer Israel
By Micah Halpern


Thursday December 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


This new poll will shock you. The actual raw data will shock you even more. These statistics are far different from what we read in headline news.

A poll conducted by Shfa, an Arab polling group, asked Arab residents living in Jerusalem if they would choose living under Israeli rule or giving up their Israeli identity card and living under Palestinian Authority rule.
93% of the Arab respondents replied that they preferred Israel and their Israeli identity cards.

Most Arabs living in Jerusalem are not Israeli citizens. They have ID cards that permit them full freedoms, access and movement like any Israeli citizen or permanent resident. They can ask for citizenship, but most do not.

Here is the raw data. 1,200 people were asked the question. 1,116 answered yes to Israeli rule. That means only 84 people polled preferred Palestinian rule over Israeli rule.

When the follow up question was asked, 79 of the 84 said they would still not give up their Israeli ID’s.

That means that out of the 1,200 - only 5 Arabs would actually prefer Palestinian rule. 5 out of 1,200. That’s the real number. 5.

That number is remarkable. That number is very telling.

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Israel Will Stop Syria's WMDs
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Eyes have been trained on Iran, trying to decipher Iranian nuclear aspirations.

But, according to Israel, Iran is not the only country that needs watching. Israel wants to alert the world to Syria’s aspirations.
Israel wants the world to know that Syria has made, stored and used Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs).

Israeli Minister of Intelligence, Elazar Stern, neither confirmed nor denied reports that Israel recently struck targets in Syria. Those targets were said to be the starting centers for new WMD labs. The report came out of the Washington Post and the question was put directly to Minister Stern.

According to the Washington Post report, Israeli jets hit 3 targets. Two in Damascus and one near Homs. The report also claimed that 7 soldiers and 1 engineer were killed in the air attack on their lab near Homs, which was disguised as a villa.

Stern’s response to the Washington Post was: “We have a neighbor that has already proved that it doesn’t hesitate to use chemical weapons even against its own people … “[Syrian President Bashar] Assad must not have chemical weapons.”
For everyone’s sake, Israel must prevent Syria from attaining WMDs.

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US Denis Israel Re-Fuel Planes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States has denied an Israeli request to fast track 2 refueling airplanes.

Nearly one year ago the United States approved the sale to Israel of 8 K-46 refueling planes for a total of $2.4 billion. The planes are supposed to be delivered in 2023. This is the first time the US has even permitted the sale of refueling planes – to anybody.

Israel’s current fleet of refueling planes was grounded this year. While we do not know how many planes are in the fleet, we do know that the planes are 60 years old. They are called Rams. They are repurposed Boeing 707s.

The early arrival of 2 of the new K-46 refueling planes would make it much easier for Israel to conduct a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities and defense systems.

It’s so obvious. The United States knows why Israel is requesting the planes. So -- why reject the proposal? Why not make it easier for Israel to strike Iran?

The simple answer is that despite what we are told, the United States might not want Israel to attack Iran alone.

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Bennett to UAE
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett travelled to the UAE. It is the first official visit of an Israeli prime minister to the Gulf nation. The invitation to Bennett was extended, in October, by Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed.

Relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates came about as part of the Abraham Accords that were signed last year at the White House, under President Trump.

This high-level trip comes amid heightened regional tension as world powers try to renew a nuclear deal with Iran. Israel has broached the idea of setting up joint defenses with those Gulf Arab states that share its concern over Iranian activities.

But the UAE has recently begun to court Iran, sending a top official last Monday and recently hosting Iranian diplomats.

The office of the prime minister reported that Bennett thanked the crown prince and spoke with the ambassador about bolstering bilateral ties, increasing regional cooperation and strengthening the Abraham Accords.

"The stronger the ties between Israel and the UAE will be the better for regional security and stability," said Bennett.

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Gantz Tell DC Prepping for Attack
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

During Israeli Defense Minister Gantz’s trip to Washington DC this past week, he made it abundantly clear to US officials - and to anyone else who would listen, that Israel is preparing a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Gantz said that he had told the IDF to prepare for a strike.

According to a responsible source: "The Americans are with us, and at the same time we, as Israelis, need to understand that the United States looks at the world broadly and has other priorities". The source went onto explain that, despite Washington’s apprehension, quote: “there was no veto” unquote, regarding a potential strike on Iran.

And then added: "If [the Americans decide] they have had enough, they will not jump on the military option right away. Instead, they will put pressure on [Tehran], all while preparing [for a military action] as well.”

To send a direct message to Iran, in addition to an IDF aerial drill meant to simulate an attack against Iran, Israel and the United States are expected to announce joint military deals.


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2nd Ancient Syn in 1 Village
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Archaeological excavations and salvage digs in Israel are the norm.
While expanding Route 90 in the Galilee at Migdal Junction, the salvage dig discovered a synagogue.

It was the second synagogue to be unearthed from the ancient town of Migdal.
The first was uncovered in 2009. Two synagogues in one town sounds like a famous joke. This is the first time that two synagogues have been found in a single town.

But the ancient town of Migdal is not a typical town. It is the birthplace of Mary Magdalene from the Christian Bible, and Mary Magdalene was a major supporter of Jesus.

The village features prominently in the book of Josephus, described as a base of his operations when he served as head of the rebellion against Rome in 67 CE.

The first synagogue was unearthed in the market area. This second synagogue is in a residential area. The thinking is that the synagogues were used not simply for prayer, but also as social meeting areas.

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Israel's 4th Dose
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has acquired enough COVID-19 vaccine for a 4th dose. The decision now is whether or not to administer that next dose in January.

There are some looming questions that need to be answered. Is another dose necessary? Will the vaccine be successful against the new Omicron variant? How long are vaccines successful in staving off the Delta variant and other COVID strains?

Israel is prepared. A decision is expected soon. It’s not a cut and dry question and answer.

Public health authorities are in a quandary. On the one hand. they need to protect their citizens. On the other they are not clear about how effective their actions will be.

A health ministry official with knowledge of the decision-making process has offered insight into the dilemma he and his colleagues are wrestling with.
According to him: "Our decision will likely be made based also on the severity of the illness from Omicron, which is also unclear. If it is less severe than the Delta variant, we may only offer a fourth dose to adults only," he said.

Nachman Ash, director general of Israel’s Ministry of Health has said. "If we see a considerable reduction in protection after six months, it will certainly be a greater burden … In any event the booster is not likely to be effective for years and we will have to be vaccinated again.”

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Boycotting Winter Olympics in China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Canada has joined Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing.

A diplomatic boycott means that athletes will complete in the Games BUT countries will not send political or diplomatic emissaries to the Games.

The decision by these countries to participate in a diplomatic boycott was made as a protest against human rights abuses in China.

China has condemned the countries that are boycotting the games. The Chinese said that these counties will pay a price for their decision.

Israel has said that they are participating in the Olympic Games. They explained that they do not want athletes to suffer.

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Steinhardt Returns 180 Items
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

An agreement was reached in Manhattan Supreme Court. The agreement has Michael Steinhardt agreeing to return 180 antiquities, objet d’art that he innocently, bought not knowing that they were stolen.

The 180 items were valued at $70 million.

In addition, Steinhardt agreed to never again collect antiquities.

Steinhardt is a major Jewish philanthropist. He is the co-founder of Birthright, the organization that brings young adults to Israel for the first time in their lives.
Birthright has injected Jewish identity into hundreds of thousands of young Jews.

It is essential to know that the antiquities world is filled with ugly, nefarious and underhanded deals. This agreement acknowledges that Michael Steinhardt did not steal nor did he commission theft. He bought the items from authorized dealers.

But it is illegal to purchase stolen goods, even if you do not know that they were stolen.

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Smart Border Finished
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has completed the building of their super hi-tech border with Gaza.  Aviv Kochavi, Israeli IDF Chief of Staff, announced the completion of the project.

The project was originally announced in 2016.  

Benny Gantz, Israel’s Defense Minister said of the border: "The barrier, which is an innovative and technologically advanced project, deprives Hamas of one of the capabilities it tried to develop.”

"(It) places an 'iron wall', sensors and concrete between the terror organization and the residents of Israel's south.”

Kochavi put it this way: "We have responded with force to any minor violation along the border and will continue to do so. We are bolstering our defenses on all fronts ... including against Iran.”

The border runs beneath the ground, its exact depth is a military secret.  It is filled with sensors which will monitor the sounds of any movement or digging, pounding or slicing.  The smart border is 40 miles long.  Above ground the fence is 20 feet high and is outfitted with remote control weapons.  There is, of course, a sea wall.

Israel is planning to build a similar structure along their border with Lebanon.

According to Gantz:  "In order to change the reality in Gaza there are simple steps that must be taken including ending Hamas's military build up, a long period of calm along the frontier and the return of Israelis held by the terror group in Gaza."

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Hamas Tunnel Collapses
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

This is something that used to happen a lot and now it is happening again.

What is it? A Hamas member was killed when the tunnel he was digging collapsed on him. It was not clear if this was a new tunnel he was digging or if it was an older destroyed tunnel that he was clearing out and refurbishing.

What is essential in this story is that tunnels are still being dug by Hamas.

The tunnels have two purposes.
Purpose # 1 is to attack Israel
Purpose #2 is to protect Hamas leadership who seek protection from Israeli air attacks.

Whatever its purpose, we have another example of what appears to be Hamas readying for another confrontation with Israel.

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Israel Reached Out to Egyptt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

As tensions between Hamas and Israel heat, up Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid travelled to Egypt to meet with his counterpart and other government officials.
This was a critical move.

Egypt is the go between for Hamas and Israel.

It’s not that Hamas and Egypt are the best of friends, they’re not even allies. But their relationship is good enough to send and receive messages and to host indirect talks.

Israel, through Lapid, is sending a message to Hamas, through Egypt.

That message is: Stand Down. Do Not embark on a campaign to draw Israel into a conflict. Because if you don’t stand down and if you do draw Israel into conflict, that conflict will cause tremendous pain and tremendous losses to Gaza.
Egypt is doing its job – Hamas has been warned.

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Erdogan Assassination Attempt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Another assassination attempt against Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was intercepted.

A bomb was discovered under the car of one of the members of Erdogan’s security team. It was disarmed. The plan was obvious. To blow up the security car as it drove close to the president.

The Turkish president was not in danger. Sappers disarmed the bomb way in advance of any real threat. But the incident is telling.

While there are numerous external threats to the life of the Turkish president, those external threats pale in comparison to domestic threats.

Turkey is a democracy, but Erdogan has utilized his position, his power and his police authority to stifle opposition - especially opposition voiced by secular student protesters.

To put it mildly, there is a great deal of local discontent in Turkey. A great deal.

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Israel & US in Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States have, thus far, avoided serious conflict.

There are, however, some very looming disagreements between the two nations. While each side has voiced their objections, they have been voiced, for the most part, behind closed doors.

But the conflicts might be too big to keep quietly hidden.

The United States is very angry with Israel for having moved ahead on the building of thousands of homes in an area about which they made a promise to the US that they would not build.

Israel, meanwhile, cannot fathom how naďve the United States and other Western nations are regarding Iran and Iranian nuclear plans.

And the idea of opening a consulate in Jerusalem to service the Palestinians is a bone of tremendous tension.

Israel’s advancing and reaching out to China does not make the US happy. Neither does the discovery of Israeli spy software that has been used to spy on allies.

Only so many issues can be kept behind closed doors – eventually frustration reaches the boiling point and someone runs to the press. We’re almost there.

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US Stands Up to Russia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Eastern Europe. He is in Riga, the capital of Latvia. He is there meeting with his NATO colleagues burning issues on the international agenda.

The elephant in the room is Russia.
Russia has amassed troops on the border of Ukraine. Everyone is asking if or when Russia will invade. The answer is dependent on the United States.

In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. At the time, the United States response was lukewarm.

Seven years later, Blinken is doing his best to sound intimidating. He is proclaiming that the United States must stop Russia.

Here are Blinken’s comments:
“Now, we’ve seen this playbook before in 2014, when Russia last invaded Ukraine. Then as now they significantly increased combat forces along the border. Then as now they intensified disinformation to paint Ukraine as the aggressor to justify pre-planned military action.”

“Now, we don’t know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade," he said. "We do know that he’s putting in place the capacity to do so in short order should he so decide. So despite uncertainty about intentions, and time, we must prepare for all contingencies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course."

“We’ve made it clear to the Kremlin that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past.”

“We’ve made it clear to the Kremlin that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past.”

Russia will evaluate – and then Russia will act.

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Omicron Not From S Africa
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

According to mainstream media coverage, the new COVID-19 variant B.1.1.529 aka Omicron is thought to have come from South Africa.

But Omicron was detected in The Netherlands on Nov. 19th and on Nov. 23rd. That’s a week before it was discovered in South Africa.

Point is - Omicron has been found all over the world.

Israel has several dozen Omicron patients, including 2 doctors. One doctor infected the other, his colleague. The first doctor was infected at a medical conference in England and brought the variant back to Israel.

We still do not know enough about Omicron. But we do know that experts are certain that we are not as well protected from this variant as we have been from previous variants.

The experts are worried.

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Black Eyed Peas in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


The music group Black Eyed Peas is performing in Israel. The group is supporting Israel despite tremendous public pressure to cancel from BDS (Boycott, Divest and Sanction) supporters.

Black Eyed Peas’ lead singer, will.i.am, said that supporters of the Palestinian-led boycott campaign against Israel would not deter him from performing in the Jewish State, nor will it deter him from investing in its booming high-tech industry.

Before their Jerusalem concert, front man will.i.am, along with Taboo and Apl.de.ap, two other members of the group, gave a statement to the Associated Press: “I’m a musician and a tech enthusiast and people like our music.”

Will.i.am added: “Do I turn my back on people that live here because of politics? No, that’s not the way we were built. So, you know, there’s beautiful people here as well as beautiful people in Palestine. And one day we want to go there too.”

Black Eyed Peas seem to understand the issues of the region.

Kudos to Black Eyed Peas.

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Israel Leads World in Cyber Tech
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has become a giant in cyber technology.

We hear a lot about cyber security, but cyber security is not the same as cyber technology. Cyber tech is everything related to the internet and cyberspace. Cyber security is just one part – albeit an important part, of cyber tech.
How large is the Israeli cyber technology giant? 40% of the world’s investment in cyber tech is invested in Israel.

That 40% is invested in Israel by private equity companies, investors and even governments. As a result, inventions, innovations and cutting developments are coming out of Israel. All eyes are on Israeli companies and on the Israeli military which is grooming tech leaders of the future.

A huge government investment in the computer industry and in a cyber army helps Israel retain its cutting edge position. The military has fostered cyber tech talent in the hope that it will both protect Israel and allow for the development of weapons capable of striking the enemies of Israel by way of cyberattacks.

Israel will continue to be on the cutting edge. The Jewish State will continue to innovate. They have the human capital – Israelis.

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Hacked Hospital back online after 5 wks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Five weeks ago, one of Israel’s largest hospitals was hit by a cyberattack. Finally, over a month later, the hospital is back to normal operations.

Hadera's Hillel Yaffe Medical Center has returned to full operations after the ransomware attack that crippled the majority of the hospital's systems.

The cyberattack that all-but paralyzed the hospital was orchestrated by the Black Shadow hacker group.

Black Shadow is believed to be affiliated with Iran.

The cyber terrorists attacked the hospital with ransomware. They demanded money. The hospital refused to meet their demands and pay.

It took over a month, but they finally fixed their system. In the interim they used an alternative web system and relied on good, old fashioned, low tech, pen and paper to keep records.

Patient care did not suffer.

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Israel to Nix UAE Pipeline
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s energy minister, Karine Elharrar, is recommending cancelling the proposed oil deal between Israel and the UAE.

Elharrar’s office issued an official statement that was broadcast on Israeli Army Radio. It read: "I am calling to cancel the EAPC agreement. It poses many risks to the Gulf of Eilat, to residents, and it does not benefit Israel's energy market."

The proposal was to have UAE tankers, filled with oil, arrive in the Red Sea port of
Eilat and off-load the oil. Israel would build a pipeline from Eilat to a Mediterranean port and then up-load the oil to tankers and ship that oil to Europe.

The plan never really considered either environmental costs or environmental dangers.

Israel’s energy minister is not alone in her concerns. Even the Israeli supreme court demanded an explanation for this venture and a plan that would protect the environment.

To be continued…

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New COVID Variant
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A new and powerful COVID variant has been detected. This variant is called B.1.1.529.

22 people in South Africa have become sick and scientists say that even 3 shots will not protect us from this new variant.

Israel, along with several other nations, has coded South Africa “red” and travel to that country is prohibited.

Israelis who want to return to Israel from South Africa must now isolate for 10 days even if they have been given 3 doses of COVID vaccine. They will also have to test negative after their isolation.

In addition to South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Namibia are also part of the travel ban.

Only a few weeks ago, in the beginning of November, Israel lifted all restrictions and said that if you have had 3 doses of the vaccine you can travel anywhere. This new variant has modified that optimistic plan.

An official statement from the PM’s office reads: "The prime minister instructed officials to immediately stop all flights to destinations in Africa."

Medical professionals explain that the B.1.1.529 variant has a "very unusual combination" of mutations which raise concerns that it might be more transmissible and more capable of evading the body's immune response than the variants we have seen until now.

Scientists are quickly trying to complete the genetic sequencing of the variant to best understand how to combat this new COVID threat before it spreads out of control.

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Iran UAE mend Fences
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Events in the Middle East are changing quickly. Long held assumptions are no longer givens. The foundations are shifting.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, who also doubles as the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator just visited the UAE. In Dubai, he met with several UAE leaders.

UAE Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash reported that the meetings went well.
In a tweet on the eve of Iran’s nuclear negotiations in Vienna with the P5+1 Kani announced his visit to the UAE. After the meeting he tweeted that “We agreed to open a new chapter” and that the meetings were “friendly and cordial.”

These two countries have been on opposite sides regarding Syria and Yemen and of course, Israel.

Iran is not the only country sending emissaries to the UAE. Recent high level visitors have included US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley and representatives from Israel, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. They all came to discuss the upcoming seventh round of nuclear talks.

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Travels of Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There is much to be learned from the travel itineraries of world leaders.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting took place in the resort town of Sochi. The discussion centered on diplomatic and regional issues. Most importantly, on Iran’s role in supporting radical groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Israeli Defense Minister Gantz travelled to Morocco for a 2-day trip, jump starting relations between the countries. Morocco is jumping on the Peace Train with Israel, aka the Abraham Accords.

The Prince of Abu Dhabi, Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE's de facto ruler, travelled to Turkey. He was there to mend a very fraught diplomatic relationship brought on by Turkey’s courting of Russia and Iran.

By keeping track of who goes where and when they go there, we are better able to predict, plan for and plot future world events

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Iran Smuggling Bombs w Drones
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz delivered a speech during which he publicly announced that Iran had attempted to smuggle explosives into the West bank for Hamas’ use.

The Iranians were flying in the bomb-making materials by using a Shaded 141 drone. The drone took off from T-4 airbase in Syria which was filled with TNT.
The drone was shot down by Israel near Beit Shean, not far from its West Bank destination.

All this happened in 2018. It was only now cleared for publication.

Gantz chose to discuss this drone and TNT incident as a way of illustrating how Iran is expanding its influence. Iran wants to control the entire region. Iran wants to support any and all potential minions and proxies in the region.

Israel is working hard not to let this happen.

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Preparin for the 4th Vaccine
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is preparing for a 4th shot to fight COVID.
Nachman Ash, director general of the ministry of health in Israel, held a press conference and laid out the probability of another jab.

Prof Ash told a press briefing: "It's probably a matter of time, and the question is how long. If [vaccine protection] lasts for a year, we'd be delighted... In any case, it probably will not last many years, even the booster shot, and we will have to keep getting vaccinated from time to time. I hope it will be a year or more."

This is important information. It means that periodic boosters may be part of our lives for the foreseeable future.

Interestingly, Merriam Webster changed their definition of vaccine. Vaccine used to mean a single shot which protected you for life.
The COVID “vaccine” changed all that.

According to the new definition, the COVID shot is a “drug” which will need to be improved and will help protect you for 6 months to a year.

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Protests in Iran Against Regime
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I watched a video of 10’s of thousands of young Iranians at a protest in Isfahan, Iran.

The protestors booed the Grand Ayatollah and they changed street signs that read “Martyrs of Gaza” to signs that read “Martyrs of November 2019”.

The protest was held in commemoration of the 2nd anniversary of Iranian leadership’s brutal crackdown against protests from November 2019.

It was held in the Zayande Rud, the dried up river bed of the great Red River which was once the life blood of the region. Participants said that Iranian farmers were protesting the awful water shortages devastating Iran.

The protestors, who looked to be between 18 and 30 years old, could be heard shouting: “By cannon, by tank, the clerics must go” and "Let Isfahan breathe again, revive Zayande Rud" and "Our children want water to provide food for your children."

The anger, the excitement and the frustration of the protestors was palpable throughout the video.

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Jew Hatred in Poland
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Last week there was a 4 hour long anti-Semitic rally in Kalisz, Poland.
Important fact # 1: The rally was officially called to honor Polish independence.
Important fact # 2: Rally participants shouted “kill the Jews” and “death to the Jews”.

The city of Kalisz is located in the southern part of Poland. This location is telling and is hugely important for a rally celebrating Polish independence combined with Jew hatred.

In 1264, Boleslav I, known as Boleslav the Pious, issued the first charter officially welcoming Jews to the region. One hundred years later that charter was expanded by Casimir the Great.

On the eve of the Holocaust, during the interwar period, Jews constituted 30% of the city of Kalisz. There were over 20,000 Jews residing in the city. After the war, roughly 500 Jews survived and returned to Kalisz.

In July of 1946 a letter of ultimatum was sent to the Jews of Kalisz to leave the city or suffer worse consequences than the Jews of Kielce.

What happened in Kielce? On July 4, 1946 - after the war - a pogrom took place in Kielce murdering 46 Jews and injuring 40 others. These Jews survived the horrors of Hitler and came home to Kielce, only to be murdered.

Kalisz threatened their Jews and told them that the same fated awaited them as the Jews of Kielce. Almost every Jew left Kalisz.

The organizers of the rally to honor Polish independence selected the city of Kalisz as the site of this rally to make a point. It was a move to challenge the legacy of Boleslav and of Casimir and to remind Poles of the plan to get rid of the Jews of Poland.

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UK Bans Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


The United Kingdom has banned all forms of Hamas.

England’s Minister of the Interior, Priti Patel, delivered a clear and unambiguous statement.

"Hamas has significant terrorist capability, including access to extensive and sophisticated weaponry, as well as terrorist training facilities.”

“The organization will be banned under the Terrorism Act and that anyone expressing support for Hamas, flying its flag or arranging meetings for the organization would be in breach of the law.”

Throughout the years Hamas has tried to create a fiction between their military wing, Izz A- din al Qassam, and their political wing, Hamas.

From this point on the United Kingdom’s definition of Hamas is in line with that of the United States and with the European Union.

Hamas was founded in 1987. Officially called the Islamic Resistance Movement, the organization is dedicated to the destruction of Israel. This Palestinian terror organization is headquartered in Gaza. Hamas opposes all interaction with Israel - especially peace talks and that is the most significant point of conflict between
Hamas and the Palestinian Authority which is run by Fatah.

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Welcome Home Oknins
By Micah Halpern


Thursday November 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Mordy and Natali Oknin are free and have returned to Israel after spending more than a week in a Turkish prison. Israelis are celebrating.

The husband and wife arrested for espionage – they were taking pictures looking out from an observation tower. I ask you – isn’t that what tourists do on top of an observation tower?!

Even Turkish media called this international debacle an embarrassment for Turkey. How, the media asked, do our leaders expect tourist to come to our country if they cannot take pictures from a café atop an observation tower.

Mordy and Natali were not spies. That was apparent. But it required intense diplomatic discussions to bring about their release.

Upon her return, Natali Oknin delivered a message of thanks for her government:

"Mr. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, we want to tell you from the bottom of our hearts, we're not taking what you did for granted. You were by our side. I heard that [Lapid] spoke to my family every day, and also the prime minister. You spoke to my family, you spoke to my sisters, my brother, my daughter Shiraz, everyone. I heard that the whole government rallied behind us … We are grateful. We are strong thanks to you."

It is hard to imagine that leaders of a country would so involved and so caring and attuned to the personal lives of citizens in distress. But that is Israel.

What did Turkey gain? Israel claims that they gave nothing in return. That is not quite accurate. While Turkey received noting tangible from Israel, they received a major diplomatic boost.

Prime Minister Bennett spoke to President Erdogan. It was the first conversation between an Israeli prime minister and the leader of Turkey in 9 years - since 2013.

That’s significant.

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Shin Bet & the PA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Ronen Bar is the new head of Israel’s Shin Bet.

Shin Bet stands for Sheirut Bitachon, or security service, it is the first letter of each word. The Shin Bet is Israel’s FBI.

Ronen Bar secretly met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. This was an important meeting.

Bar and the Shin Bet are responsible for the internal safety of Israel.
One way to do that is to constantly monitor what happens in the Palestinian Authority which is where many threats against Israel emanate.

But that is not all the Shin Bet learns. One of the obvious additional gains from the intel they glean from within the PA is threats against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his PA.

This is essential information.

Ronen Bar met with Abbas because Israel is integrally involved in keeping the Palestinian Authority, under Abbas, in power.

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Israel & US Join to Fight Cyber-War
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States have agreed to work together to combat ransomware. They will work together and share material on cybersecurity and especially, on fintech.

Ransomware is a cyber-hack. In most cases of ransomware, the hacker blocks your system until you pay a ransom that unlock your computer. Another form of ransomware occurs when an attacker takes private details and threatens to publish them unless a ransom is paid.

These are serious security risks for companies, corporations, institutions and for agencies. If you recall, not too long ago the largest oil pipeline in the United States was hacked and as a result, oil delivery in the US was halted for several days.

Fintech, a compound word combining financial and technology fields, is one of the most dangerous of all cybersecurity platforms.

Fintech needs bolstering and constant protection. If a financial market is hit through a cyberattack, it could cripple the country’s economy. Both Israel and the United States are aware of the magnitude of the problem and will work together to make sure it does not happen to them.

Joining forces is critically important in the effort to protect all of us from the growing dangers of cyberattacks.

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Israel at Dubai Air Show
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Dubai Air Show was the perfect place for Israel to further advance the Abraham Accords.

Individuals and companies and - most importantly, countries from all over the world come to the air show to check out what’s available and to buy military equipment. Israel is on the cutting edge of many of these products and so Israeli representatives were involved in numerous conversations, meetings and exhibitions.

The Israeli companies present in Dubai for the air show were national defense companies. In other words, companies that are a branch of the government, often the defense ministry or the science ministry. The Israeli delegation was led by Brig. Gen. (res.) Yair Kulas, head of Sibat, the defense ministry’s weapons exports department.

Speaking of his attendance at the show, Kulas said: “Opening a national Israeli booth in Dubai represents a new and historic element in the strengthening of ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. We are pleased with the opportunity to take part in this important exhibition and to present Israeli defense contractors’ advanced technological capabilities … During the exhibition, we plan to hold many meetings and discuss advancing new partnerships.”

In all, seven Israeli contractors went to Dubai. They are Elbit Systems, the Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael, Astronautics, Nir-Or, UVision and Tomer, which manufactures rockets.

This is a huge step forward for all the parties involved. It is initiative that will, hopefully, lure more regional players to join the Abraham Accords.

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Scorpions Swarm in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Scorpions are swarming in Egypt. Blame it on excessive rain.

When scorpions leave their nests, they seek new homes and along the way, people get stung.

Massive rains continue to fall in the south of Egypt, in the area of Aswan. The rains flood the scorpion’s nests. The rains also displace snakes, and they, too, are looking for new homes.

A scorpion sting is usually painful and an inconvenience. But these displaced scorpions are “fat-tailed scorpions.” And they are probably the most dangerous scorpions in the world.

Three people have already died in Egypt and over 400 have been hospitalized.
Doctors have been reassigned from hospital COVID wards and are now dealing deal with patients who have been bitten by these deadly scorpions.

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Joint Naval Drill Confronting Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel, along with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and the United States is involved in a 5-day naval drill in the Red Sea.

By way of this drill, the nations are sending a direct message to Iran. They are telling Iran that, as a group, they are increasing their coordination, their interactive communication and their ability to streamline information, movement and strikes.

Iran received the message, and they have responded. Iran has said that Israel may start the conflict with Iran, but Iran will certainly end it.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander of Aerospace General Amir Ali Hajizadeh told official Iranian media Tasnim that: “Any mistake by Israel in dealing with Tehran will accelerate its destruction.”

An Israeli briefing about this joint naval drill indicated it was not just a message directed to Iran, it was also a tool to reduce the exaggerated and unbalanced projection of power that Iran has, over these last few months, been presenting.

This is as much about perception as it is about tactics and strategy.

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Syria Expels Iran - WOW
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Tension between Syria and Iran is boiling over.
Syria’s president has expelled the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria, General Javad Ghaffari.

The decision to expel the leader of the Iranian troops was simple.

Iranians have engaged in a smuggling operation in Syria and created a market for black market products. The network has literally threatened the Syria economy.

The report on this, which appeared on Al-Arabiya, emphasized that Iran was running an economy within the Syria economy that was undercutting Syrian trade networks and avoiding taxes.

Iran had thought that, in Syria, they could do whatever they wanted and do it with impunity. So much so, that over the past few weeks Iran has also been involved in direct attacks against US bases in Syria.

Iran’s actions in Syria have been causing Syria damage. And Syria finally said “enough”.

This is a huge blow to Iran’s goal which is to bring together the region, under Iranian leadership.

In the end, Iran needs Syria. So expect Iran to come to Syrian President Bashar Assad with a bowed head and a plan to smooth things over.

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Libyan Leader Lands in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

This is one of the many ways that international diplomacy is brokered.

The son of a Libyan warlord, the man expected to win the upcoming national presidential elections scheduled for December, landed in Israel for secret meetings.
Saddam Haftar is the son of Khalifa Haftar. His father is, effectively, the most powerful leader in a fractured Libya. The election will, if all goes according to plan, help unite the country.

According to reports, Saddam’s plane landed at Ben Gurion airport. It remained on the tarmac for 90 minutes. No one got off the plane. But several Israeli leaders did board the plane and spoke to Haftar. It is not clear who exactly came to the meetings.

The son was delivering a message from his father. The message was that Libya is interested in normalizing ties with Israel in exchange for Israeli help in the diplomatic sphere, the technical sphere and the computer sphere. Libya seems to want to join with Israel in the style of the Abraham accords, in line with UAE, Bahrain and Morocco.

And then the plane took off and headed home.

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Israel Says No To US Consulate
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States wants to open a consulate in Jerusalem that will service the Palestinians.

Israel opposes this move from wall to wall. They have made their feelings public, official and on the record. Almost every party leader has explained how it would be a terrible decision on the part of the United States to open a consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett answered a direct question from CNN about the consulate. Bennett was standing next to Yair Lapid, his partner and foreign minister, and next to Avigdor Liberman, his finance minister when he made the following statement to CNN:

"There is no room for another American consulate in Jerusalem. We always present our position quietly without drama and we expect it to be understood. Jerusalem is the capital of one state and that's the state of Israel. I'm sure our American friends and us will continue to collaborate on a long list of big things."

A few days earlier Bennett had suggested that if the United States is so dead set about opening a consulate for Palestinians, they should open it in Ramallah near the government headquarters of the Palestinian Authority.

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IDF Drills in North
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is engaged in a 2-day, all out, military drill on their northern border using reservists of the 36th division aka - Gaash.

Included in this grill are non-combative elements – like the speed of call up and the agility required to move into formation and to move into defense or attack mode.

The drill begins with either a text message or a phone call to the cell phone to each member of the division. They are told where to go and they are given their first instructions.

The goal of the drill is to test readiness. To make certain that reserve soldiers can be efficiently called up and place into position.

The drill is, obviously, also a message to Iran to Hezbollah and to Syria.

Israel is sending a message to their enemies. Reservists, professional and mature veterans of the IDF, are at the ready and fully prepared for any and all future conflicts.

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Iran is Enriching Uranium
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that they have successfully enriched 77pound of uranium to 60% purity.

There is no reason to question the veracity of the announcement. Although Iran often lies and exaggerates, in this case, the announcement reflects a reality that is more than plausible.

The announcement comes on the eve of renewed talks, to take place in Vienna, between Iran and the P5+1. The West, especially the United States, hopes that this round of talks will result in a return to the famous Iranian nuke deal that President Trump pulled out of in 2018.

Here is the problem, and it is the very reason that Iran’s uranium announcement is probably truthful: It is very hard to walk back scientific technology.

Iran has the capability to enrich uranium to 60%. They will not go back to the 3.65% which is stipulated in the original agreement.

This is the exact quote from Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: "So far we have produced 25 kilograms of 60% uranium, which, except for countries with nuclear weapons, no other country is able to produce.”

I would say that the P5+1 are walking straight into an Iranian diplomatic trap.

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42 Yrs Ago Iran Stormed US Embassy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


On November 4, 1979 Iran stormed the United States embassy in Teheran.
The kidnapping and “hostage crisis,” as it was dubbed by the media, lasted 444 days.

That was 42 years ago.

Rallies took place in over 800 Iranian cities to celebrate this strike against the enemy – their nemesis, the United States of America.

These rallies are traditional in Iran. The establishment embraces attacks against the West. Especially attacks against the United States. So, in each of these coordinated and choreographed rallies, huge US flags were laid on the ground and participants marched over them. They were, in essence, trampling on the United States. But that was not enough. US flags were also set on fire and left to burn along parade routes.

These rallies and parade have become an annual event in Iran. It is a celebratory event. Last year the celebrations were cancelled because of COVID, this year they are back.

This is just another example of how consumed Iranian leadership is with their battle against the United States.

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Iran Chief Rabbi Visits US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s Chief Rabbi, Rabbi Yaakov Gerami, paid a visit to the United States.
Rabbi Gerami was received with mixed emotions and mixed greetings.

While many Persian Jews living in Brooklyn and in LA were livid and extremely upset that Gerami was visiting their Jewish communities, other invited him in and received him like a hero.

The Chabad conference of “shluchim” (Chabad emissaries from communities around the US and around the world) danced around him. He was invited into their schools and met with their students.

But there was significant dissent from the general Jewish community.

Gerami is a frequent Israel-basher in both the international press and in the Iranian media. Even worse, was his condolence visit to the family of Qasem Soleimani after Soleimani was assassinated by the United States in January 2020.
To jog your memory, Soleimani was commander of the al Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard. He was the mastermind behind almost every significant attack perpetrated on Western targets outside Iran.

Gerami has to make, what I call, choiceless choices. His home and his rabbinate are in Iran. He needs to bow to Iranian Shiite leadership to protect himself and his community. He needs to say and do things that are totally against what we would think to be correct. We, who do not live under that oppression, cannot possibly imagine what that is like.

The closest historical parallel to Gerami’s predicament is the Judenrate, Jewish leaders who ran the ghettoes during the Holocaust.

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Saudi Prince Tells Of US Errors
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I was surprised to hear the former intel minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Turki al-Faisal, publicly critique the United States and US policy in the Middle East.

The prince’s critique was not a private, off-the-record, critique intended for insiders. His remarks were made at an event sponsored by the Atlantic Council.
Prince Turki al-Faisal said that United States influence in the Middle East was stuck in “strategic confusion.”

He said: "The United States was the dominant power for the last seven decades.
Therefore, doubts about its role and commitments to preserve regional security are accumulating and resulting in a continued strategic regional confusion, which leads to more conflicts and crises …No region in the world fears the danger of this strategic confusion more than the Middle East region."

I fear that the prince is correct.

The confusion displayed by the United States in their foreign affairs decisions is causing tremendous global uncertainty – particularly in the Middle East. That uncertainty will translate into empowering the dark forces of the Middle East, forces that, for decades, had been held at bay by the United States.

But no more.

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Glasgow Conf Makes Big Mistakes
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

25,000 leaders from around the world descended on Glasgow, Scotland to fight for the future of the earth. The gathered to combat climate change. The conference is officially called COP26.

There are some really serious issues that the organizers should have foreseen – and did not.

There has been significant blowback, for example, because many of the participants flew in, on private aircraft. The organizers should have called on everyone to fly on commercial airlines, they should have been encouraged to save energy – even if only as a symbol.

Even if people disregarded the directive and flew their own Learjet, the conference would have been on the record.

Conference organizers could also have asked major players to charter large aircrafts and invite other participants to join them. Again, this is a symbol, it is a gesture, an important one.

This next example is inexcusable in the year 2021 at a conference claiming to save the world.

The conference center was not accessible to the disabled. Israeli Minister of National Infrastructure and Water Karine Elharrar, who suffers from muscular dystrophy, has a very special wheelchair. This minister in the government of Israel spent two hours trying to find a way enter the conference center. She went to three different entrances. And then she called for a shuttle to pick her up – and to add insult to injury, that, too, was not accessible.

She tweeted: “I went to the international climate conference to promote the joint struggle in the climate crisis through meetings with my counterparts around the world. “Unfortunately, that was not possible because of accessibility problems that have no justification in the year 2021.”

Actions speak louder than words.

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Its All About Drugs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to the Middle East, we spend most of our time discussing terror, security and borders. They are all important. But just as important is an often over-looked enemy. It lurks behind the scenes. It hugs every border.

I am referring to drug smuggling.

Israel is a transit cross location for the transfer of drugs.
Israel is also the final marketing place for some of those drugs.

The IDF was involved in a shootout with drug smugglers attempting to cross the Egyptian border into Israel. No one was injured on the Israeli side and the IDF successfully seized 660 pounds of drugs. The estimated market value of the drugs is $2 million.

The drug trade puts it all in perspective.

Israel is struggling with the same issues that other countries, countries with peaceful neighbors, address when securing their borders.

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Israel Attacks Hezbollah in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Midday on Saturday, Israel attacked an arms shipment in Syria just west of the capital city.

The arms were being moved from the area around Damascus, the capital of Syria, to Beirut, the capitol of Lebanon. Five people were killed. All were members of the Iranian backed terror group Hezbollah.

The weapons were going to Lebanon to further improve Hezbollah’s weapons cache.

Media throughout the Middle East covered the attack. Israel does not often comment on strikes and this was no exception.

Midday attacks are rare, night attacks are usually preferred. Night lends excellent cover for missiles, planes, drones and helicopters.

Israel uses many variables when deciding whether to strike during the day or at night. One factor is whether there will be another opportunity to hit the target.
Another is whether the target is so important that it will shift the balance and empower the enemy – in this case, Hezbollah.

In this attack, I would suggest that both were at play and in the end, the weapons were destroyed, enroute in Syria, during the day, before they could be hidden.

This strike taught Hezbollah that Israel’s rule about night time attacks is not ironclad. That lesson alone is essential for Israel to drive home.

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US Stance on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

What is the current United States stance on Iran and on negotiating with Iran? They claim that, when it comes to Iran, patience is “wearing thin”.

On Monday the Biden administration said that diplomatic efforts to get Iran back to nuclear negotiations are at a "critical place" and that international patience with Iranian delays in returning to the talks is "wearing thin."

U.S. special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, told reporters that there is a "deep and growing" concern about Iran's continued intransigence and refusal to commit to a date to resume the negotiations in Vienna.

Malley said the U.S. and its partners want a diplomatic solution. He said the United States wants Iran back to comply with the 2015 nuclear deal.

Malley also said that the United States will not wait for long for this to happen. He said that the United States is considering options other than a purely diplomatic solution.

Malley said, "We're in a critical place.” He said that the talks with Iran in Vienna were suspended after a sixth round in June due to Iran's presidential elections and then stalled again as Iran installed their new Iranian president. Ebrahim Raisi.

But Raisi has been in Office since August. Enough time has passed for Iran to decide on a policy.

"At this point it's hard to find an innocent explanation as to why it's taking so long," Malley said. "The 'Plan B' being implemented right now appears to be the Iranian one, and that's something we have to be prepared for."

This is not looking good for the West.

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Gaza Executes Many
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Hamas controls Gaza and they have just sentenced 6 people to death for collaborating with Israel.

According to the Islamist terror group's military court, it issued sentences "against a number of informants, including six death sentences, other sentences varying between life terms and temporary hard labor, and one acquittal."

Intel assets or collaborators are an essential part of war – of every war.

Local Gazans volunteer to help Israel. They get paid. They deliver essential information that cannot be culled from hacking or cyber spoofing.

But it is dangerous work - Hamas deems it a betrayal.

The essential point here is that many people, many Gazans, do not support Hamas.
So much so, that they are willing to risk their own lives in order to help Israel.

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Slaughtering Kosher Meat Illegal in Greece
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Jewish ritual slaughter of meat is a central component of Jewish life.

Over the past few years there has been a move to outlaw Jewish ritual slaughter of animals. The reason given for promoting this move – which has already won in court cases, is that Jewish law prohibits stunning the animal before slaughter.

Not stunning the animal before slaughter, is considered animal abuse.

Today, the highest court in Greece ruled that Jewish ritual slaughter of animals was animal abuse and illegal.

The Greek ruling echoes last year’s decision from the highest court in the European Union. According to that ruling, any region that prohibited slaughtering an animal without first stunning it, was illegal.

The rulings directly impact the lives of both Jews and of Muslims who must, according to their religious belief, eat kosher and hallal meats.

These rulings make an obvious point: animal rights take precedence over, and have become more important, than religious rights and religious rites.

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Cyberattack Hits Iran Gas Stations
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran was hit by another cyberattack on Tuesday.
This was one brilliant attack.

The target of this cyberattack was gasoline fueling stations. Long lines snaked across the country as no one was able to fill up on gas.

Here is how the hack worked:
All Iranians get their gas by using a government issued credit card that gives them a subsidy. Effectively, with the government card a gallon of gasoline costs an
Iranian 5 cents for up to 15.8 gallons. After that, gas costs 10 cents a gallon.
This hack attacked the card system.

Every time an Iranian used their card and began to fill-up on gasoline, the number 64411 flashed along with the word “cyberattack”.

The numbers 64411 echo a previous attack that struck Iranian trains. That attack was attributed to a hacking group named Indra – the Hindu god of war.
The earlier attack was tracked by Check Point, one of Israel’s cybersecurity firms.

Any number of groups could have perpetrated this cyberattack. Israel and Israelis are, of course, prime candidates – but there is a long list of groups and countries that would benefit from disturbing daily life in Iran.

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Israel Invests in Arab Sector
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has allocated NIS 30 billion for a five-year plan dedicated to the economic. social and infrastructure development of the Arab sector. The plan includes investments in education, transport, housing, culture, sport and employment.

According to Meirav Cohen, Israel’s Social Equality Minister: "this plan will provide hope for many people in Israel, and at the end of the day will also reduce the violence and crime problem in the Arab sector."

That’s not all.

The government approved another NIS 2.5 billion dedicated to fighting the spike in crime in the Arab sector.

Public Security Minister Omer Barlev explained the decision saying: "the decision convinces the whole government to act as one for this important goal."

Lawlessness within the Arab sector has led to a sense of frustration in Arab villages and cities. These allocations are seriously needed. Hopefully, they will have the desired and desperately needed effect.

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Syria Executes 24
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Syria regularly executes people convicted of crimes.

Recently, Syria executed 24 people. They were convicted of igniting wildfires last year that left three people dead and burnt thousands of hectares (acres) of forests. The fire was devasting.

Executions are common in Syria.

But 24 executions is an unusually large number even for Syria to execute at one time.

Syria's decade-old conflict left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced half the country's population, including five million refugees outside the country.

The Syrian Ministry of Justice said those were executed, "criminals who carried out terrorist attacks that led to deaths and damage to infrastructure and public property." The ministry said that there were another 11 people who were sentenced to life in prison in the same case.

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Iran's Public Air Drill
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran boldly and publicly had the media cover their annual air force drill. As part of the exercise they had planes flying across the country, crossing into the sea and then back to land.

This air force drill came just one week after another massive exercise – this one in air defense.

Official Iranian media covered the two events extensively so as to send a message to the United States and Israel.

According to Iranian reports, bombers, jet fighters, and attack and surveillance drones participated in the drill. Additionally, they used heavy weapons including laser-guided missiles.

The press reported that all of Iran’s military air bases participated in the maneuver. Reportedly, Iran has 12 air bases.

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India Vaccinates 1 Billion
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

1.4 billion people live in India. Vaccinating India against COVID was a real challenge. There were devastating surges of COVID and the country was devastated by the numbers of deaths due to corona virus.

But India just celebrated a milestone. They successfully administered 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines.

The government promoted the event with song and a video. But just as the celebrations began, the number of daily vaccines dropped.

Today, India's has vaccinated 75% of its 944 million adults with at least one vaccine dose. BUT only 31% with two doses. The government wants all adults to get vaccinated before the end of 2021.

"India scripts history," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter. "We are witnessing the triumph of Indian science, enterprise and collective spirit of (1.3 billion) Indians."

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Hezbollah Losing Support
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Samir Geagea is the head of the Lebanese Christian Forces.

The Lebanese Christian Forces is publicly charging Hezbollah, which is the Iranian backed Shiite Muslim terrorist group, as being "the biggest threat facing Lebanon and its people."

Geagea further stressed that, right now, Hezbollah has only one goal. And that goal is to stop the investigation into last summer’s explosion at the port of Beirut.
The explosion killed hundreds and injured thousands.

Geagea is suggesting that Hezbollah and/or Iran must have had some role in the explosion. The head of the Lebanese Christian Forces is not alone. We are hearing from more and more Lebanese leaders condemn Hezbollah.

Until recently this critique was unheard of. This might be a sign that Hezbollah is losing popular support and control in Lebanon.

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Egypt Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has implemented a set of plans aimed at destroying ISIS in the Sinai desert.
Until now, for all intents and purposes, ISIS was freely roaming the desert. They were roaming the desert with impunity.

The first thing that the Egyptian army is doing is cutting off this freedom of movement.

To that end, the Egyptians erected a string of watchtowers, checkpoints and army posts along the northern edge of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian troops now patrol in armored vehicles along newly repaved roads, they are on the lookout for ISIS.

Smaller roads have been blocked off with piles of sand and some houses were demolished to eliminate cover between Al Arish and Sheikh Zuweid.

These measures reflect a significant shift in the security situation during the past two years. Hopefully, Egypt will successfully secure the area and force ISIS into retreat.

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Iran Strikes US Base
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran attacked a US base in Syria.

The al Tanf base sits on the Syrian/Iraqi border. The base is there to function as an intel facility. It houses about 400 US troops along with British and French intelligence personnel.

Interestingly, the report on the attack of a US base was broadcast not on US media – but on Iranian media. And the Iranians claimed responsibility.

This was a direct message to both the United States and Israel. And the message is that Iran is acting and responding to changing events in the region.

Iran regularly uses others to do their bidding so that they have plausible deniability. So their direct involvement in strike against a US base is a significant change in style.

Aside from the message to the United States and to Israel, Iran is also telling Russia that they too do not want the United States in Syria and that they are actively moving to push them out.

We have been warned.

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Internal Divide in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

"No one is above the law and judiciary."

That is what Lebanon's Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, the top Christian cleric in Lebanon, said regarding the protests and violence in Beirut.

He is speaking about the judiciary’s probe into last year's horrific explosion at the Beirut port and the violent reaction it has caused.

This violence may ignite more violence - sectarian violence between Shiites, Sunnis and Christians which has plagued Lebanon for decades and always lies just under the surface in Lebanon.

Remember, the Lebanese suffered under a 15 year bloody civil war from 1975-1990.

It appears that Hezbollah, the Shiite terror group sponsored by Iran, is fomenting against the investigation. We can only wonder, and at this point speculate, about why Hezbollah is so involved and cares so much about this investigation.

In his sermon the Patriarch said: "We must free the judiciary from political interference, sectarian and partisan political activism and respect its independence according to the principle of separation of powers.”

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Violins From Holocaust
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Commemorating the Holocaust is a true challenge.
Amnon Weinstein found a moving and innovative way.

Weinstein, an Israeli, is one of the world greatest violin restorers. He works with his son. One of his greatest projects is collecting and restoring violins from the Holocaust. Weinstein calls this project “Violins of Hope.”

The Jewish Federation in Roanoke, VA Jewish held a concert featuring Weinstein-restored violins playing music composed by composers who were murdered by Hitler during the Holocaust.

The concert was called “And their Music Lived On.”

It was held in the Grandin Theatre in Roanoke, Virginia, in a special show presented by the Roanoke Jewish Federation.

In 2014 Germany invited Amnon Weinstein to bring his violins to Berlin to be played by the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.

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Sweden New A/S
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Sweden has emerged as a hotbed of anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial.

During an international forum combatting anti-Semitism held in a synagogue, the words “The Holocaust was a scam” were flashed onto the walls of the synagogue in Malmo, the 3rd largest city in Sweden. A light projector was used project the slur and to disrupt the event.

It happened during the forum, which was taking place outside the synagogue, and intended for all the dignitaries to see. The same words were simultaneously projected onto the walls of other buildings especially municipal and court buildings in Malmo.

Police are investigating these disruptions and treating them as a hate crime.

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Political Change in Arab Countries
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Every Israeli prime minister is briefed on issues and safety questions concerning Israel and Jews from all over the world.

I was very happy to hear Prime Minister Bennett talk about internal challenges in Lebanon and in Iraq and specifically about the grassroot opposition groups emerging in these countries.

There has been violence and protests by Hezbollah on the streets of Beirut opposing the judiciary’s investigation of the horrific explosion in the port of Beirut.
In response, popular voices are emerging rejecting that violence and those protests. In essence, those voices are rejecting Hezbollah and Iran.

During the recent elections in Iraq, Iranian-backed candidates did very poorly.
Bennett said: "Wherever Iran interferes, there is violence, poverty and instability.”
He continued: "I hope the Lebanese and Iraqi people will succeed in breaking free from the strangle-hold of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and build a better future for themselves."

I hope, his hope, comes true.

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Jews Must Secure their Buildings
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Security is one of the biggest issues that Jewish communal leaders deal with every single day. They ask for and have received millions of federal dollars to help secure Jewish buildings and institutions.

Now the quandary: With the increase of violence against Jews and Jewish institutions, leaders are questioning whether they should pull back on the visibly Jewish symbols on their buildings. They fear that Jew haters can easily locate and then deface and vandalize the institutions.

They raise an important point -- but the horse is already out of the corral.

Very few Jewish buildings are unknown, especially to Jew Haters. And a simple internet search can provide the address of almost any Jewish institution or building. They are listed in order to serve the good people they serve.

Jewish institutions should not hide from those evil people who want to cause damage, perpetrate terror and instill fear. They should bolster their security.
Seriously bolster their security.

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Israel is Opening
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

From now on, in Israel, the parents of children testing positive for COVID will not have to isolate.

This is a major step forward towards insuring that neither the country nor the economy shut downs or even slows down.

The only caveat – and there is always a caveat - is that the parents have been fully vaccinated or recently recovered from COVID.

Fully vaccinated means that a person has received all three shots OR two shots that were administered within the last 6 months.

Recovered means someone who has recovered from COVID within the past 6 months OR recovered more than 6 months ago and has received 1 vaccine dose.

The Health Ministry statement indicated that this is "significant news for parents of children under the age of 12, who were forced into isolation and lost working days."

All in all, the Delta variant is receding in Israel. The infection rate has dropped significantly and is below 2%.

In the span of two weeks the number of “red cities” and towns dropped from 63 to 3. Two weeks ago, 63 cities and towns were considered red, of those 58 were Arab. Now only 3 are red and of those, only 1 is Arab.

This is all very good and encouraging news.

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Israel COVID Self Tests
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Part of Israeli Prime Minister Bennett’s plan for getting Israel back to normal and defeating the COVID Delta Variant is placing antigen test kits in the hands of every family with school aged children.

7.2 million kits have been imported. Parents will test their children in the privacy of their homes and only if the test results are positive will they need to take them to an official site for a PCR test.

This plan is intended to relieve parents in many ways, especially by removing the need to take time off from work to trek to testing centers only to find out that their child is negative. Kits will also be available in classrooms.

Prime Minster Bennett explained his thinking this way:
"We are doing everything to keep the economy open, the education system functioning, and to maintain routine life. With the millions of tests that we are bringing to the country – it is possible. With correct, close and flexible management, we will defeat the Delta strain."

This is a gargantuan step. Hopefully it will improve the quality of life for Israeli parents as they struggle to care for their families and to defeat COVID.

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Markel in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Angela Merkel, before officially stepping down as Chancellor of Germany, paid a visit to Israel. While there, she met with numerous Israeli leaders - and they all counseled her to clamp down on Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett did not mince words when speaking to Merkel. He told her: "This is a critical point in time, and Germany's position is crucial. In Israel, we are taking action and operating against Iran in every dimension – including daily actions to stop it flooding our region with weapons”.

"The Iranians are stalling and their centrifuges are spinning. Israel's responsibility is to make sure, with deeds and not with words, that Iran will never have nuclear weapons."

"Nuclear weapons in the hands of such an extremist and violent regime will adversely change the region and the world. For us it is an existential issue".
Germany’s chancellor heard what the Israeli prime minister had to say and responded:

“I see a responsibility for Russia and China here.” She went on to say that every day without a deal, is a day that Iran continues to enrich uranium.

This is a very serious issue and it must be closley monitored.

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IAEA Iran's Uranium & The Bomb
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, announced that Iran has successfully enriched 120kilo of uranium. 120kilo is 265lbs of uranium.

That is an enormous amount of uranium

Iran countered the announcement explaining that, according to their agreement. Iran was supposed to receive 20% enriched uranium - but that uranium was never delivered. So, the Iranians made it themselves.

Of course, the agreement also stipulates that Iran is not to enrich greater than 3.75% uranium. But for Iran, that’s beside the point.

According to scientists who specialize in uranium, Iran is very close to the threshold for making a rudimentary nuclear bomb. A rudimentary bomb would require 375lbs, or 175kilo, of enriched uranium. At 265lbs, they are almost there.

This is – to put it mildly, a very worrisome situation.

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Cafes Have No Limits Anymore
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Corona Virus Cabinet voted to scrap the rule which put a ceiling on the number of people who could sit outside in a café or restaurant.

But there is a caveat. They decided to scrap the policy only as long as the tables were separated from each other by 150 cm, which would mean that they are about 5 feet apart.

The decision to change policy is significant,

It frees up restaurants and it follows the science. More than that, it is a resounding acceptance of the thinking that there is very little chance of COVID transmission when outside.

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Tensions in Persian Gulf
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Tensions continue to be high in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian State TV reported that their navy’s rubber boats successfully harassed a United States vessel.

They released a video which was broadcast on television. In the video, which certainly looks authentic, there is audio of the Iranians in the rubber boat shouting “keep chasing them” in Farsi, the language spoken in Iran.

But is it really authentic? The US Navy spokesperson has no knowledge of any event of this sort.

The Persian Gulf is a tinder box. The region can explode at any time. Talks, which were taking place in Vienna, stalled in June and there is no date for the resumption of talks.

Iran is trying to lure the United States into a conflict.

Iranians believe that in any exchange with the US, the United States will be perceived as the aggressor and they, Iran will be seen as the victim. That thinking is one of the reasons for using small rubber boast against large US ships.

They are hoping to re-enact the David and Goliath story, Iranian style.

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Brazil & Nazis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

When executing a search warrant, it is not uncommon for police to find the unexpected.

In Brazil, police were searching the home of an accused serial child molester. And that’s how they found a huge collection of authentic Nazi memorabilia. Uniforms, hats, helmets, all varieties of memorabilia.

Included in the stash there were also various daggers and nine guns. There was a rifle, a machine gun and a large amount of ammunition.

The collections was valued at $3.5 million

After World War II, Brazil was a safe haven for Nazis.

Nazis could gather and sing songs and regale each other with tales of the greatness of the Nazi era and express their yearning for its return. The movie “The Boys from Brazil” captures the essence of that period in history.

It is estimated that over 9,000 Nazi officers found refuge in South America and that in Brazil was home to between 3,000 and 4,000 Nazi officers.

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Israel & COVID: Update
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s COVID positivity numbers are dropping and dropping. Obviously, this is very good news. But it is not all good news.

17% of Israelis are unvaccinated. And as expected, the overwhelming percentage of those people being hospitalized – are unvaccinated.

Unvaccinated Israelis compose 70% of those people in the hospital.
23% of those hospitalized received 2 vaccines over 6 months ago.

Surprisingly, 4% of the hospitalized also received their third vaccine, the booster.

This next number is very disturbing - and it is growing.
44% of those testing positive are children under 11 years old. Some of them are very sick and even dying,

And that goes against conventional wisdom. The COVID virus of 20 months ago is not the COVID virus of today.

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The Search for Ron Arad
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The story of Ron Arad is back in the news.

Israeli Prime Minster Naftali Bennett told Israelis that the Mossad was launching a serious investigation to find out what happened to Ron Arad.

The story of Ron Arad has been hanging over – and haunting - Israel for 35 years ago.

In 1986, Arad, an IDF navigator, ejected from his fighter jet and landed behind enemy lines in Lebanon. He was captured by the Amal Militia and never again heard from or found. His body was never returned to Israel.

In a speech to the Knesset during the opening of the winter session Prime Minister Bennett said: "It was a complex, large-scale and daring operation. That's all there is to say right now. We made another effort on the way to understanding what happened to Ron.”

After an Israeli columnist claimed that the current operation endangered lives, Arad’s widow, Tami, defended the operation and said that she was specifically told that no lives were endangered.

Israel has already discovered the first place where Ron Arad was held. The search for answers continues.

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Iran's Attempt to Kill Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israelis living outside of Israel, everyone including Israeli business people and their businesses and Israeli diplomats and their family members and Israeli properties abroad have been put on alert. They were told to be extra specially careful.

The announcement came in the wake of the unsuccessful assassination of an Israeli businessman in Cyprus.

According to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the attempt was real and all Israelis must be vigilant. He corroborated the story and emphasized that Iran attempted to assassinate billionaire businessman Teddy Sagi.
Cypriot security informed Sagi and the plot was foiled.

Of course, Iranian officials say that this is all an Israeli fiction.

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UN Rights Watch is Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I watched and I was stunned.

In a video conference, the UN Human Rights Council listened to UN Watch Executive Director Hillel Neurer as he spoke about how teachers and principals at United Nations schools are posting and teaching hatred of Israel and of Jews and teaching an appreciation of Hitler.

The President of the UNHRC, Nazat Shameem Khan, cut Neurer off and said he was out of order. She said that his comments were insulting and offensive. Khan’s exact words were: "insulting and inflammatory remarks" were made that amount to "personal attacks" against individuals. Then she said that the "statement is out of order"

Neurer’s watchdog group documented over 100 teachers and principals in UN schools violating their neutrality. They praised and even advocated killing Israelis on social media.

The UNHRC is an independent body. The Secretary General of the United Nations has only very limited influence over the Council.

There has been almost no outcry on this blatant misuse of power. That is unexcusable.

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COVID Now Hitting Kids
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There has been a dramatic change in the COVID numbers of children seriously affected by the virus.

The only real numbers come from Israel – which, as I have said many times before, is most transparent with their COVID numbers. And unfortunately, Israel has seen an upward trend in the hospitalizations of children.

In September more than 50 children were hospitalized with COVID. 40 of these children displayed life threatening symptoms and were put on ventilators.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, conventional medical wisdom was that young people did not suffer dramatically from COVID.

It is clear that the change was brought on by the Delta Variant.

Professor Tzachi Grossman, head of the Israeli Pediatric Association, explained to YNET that: "COVID is often more than a mild illness … There are serious complications and we must do everything we can to prevent infections."

Dr. Adi Klein, who heads the pediatric ward at the Hillel Yaffe Medical Center in Hadera, said that they were receiving increasingly younger patients with severe COVID-19 complications for treatment.

She said: "We used to get mostly teens, but now we see small children too, as young as 4 and 5, who come to us in serious condition due to complications of COVID … COVID is mild in most children, but once tens of thousands of children are infected, some of them will end up developing more severe illness."

This is not news we had hoped to hear.

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96 & She Runs from Court
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A 96 year-old woman named Irmgard Furchner skipped her hearing in Germany. She got up and ran away – or rather, hobbled away.

The woman has since been caught. She ran because she was to stand trial for her role in Stutthof, a Nazi concentration camp in Poland where, between 1943 and 1945 she worked as a typist.

Furchner is charged with accessory to the murder of 11, 412 people. At the time, she was 18 years-old and so, she is being tried in Germany, as a minor.

Very early in the morning on the opening day of her trial, she left her home and took a cab. An arrest warrant was issued and she was found. After undergoing medical testing, the trial is slated to begin.

This is the latest in a series of trials of elderly Nazis and they will be the last of Nazi trials.

These former Nazis played minor roles in the murder process. In the first few decades after the Holocaust there was a concerted effort to find Nazis and bring them to trial. The targets of those searches were those Nazis who played significant roles in the murder process.

The objective today is to use these last Nazis trials as teaching moments.

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Egypt's Direct Flights to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

EgyptAir is the official commercial airline of Egypt and EgyptAir is now operating 4 flights a week to Tel Aviv.

These flights were 42 years in the making.
It’s been 42 years since the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, known as
The Camp David Accords, was signed. The Accords provided for official flights between Egypt and Israel with planes carrying the Egyptian flag on their tail wing.
But it never happened – until now.

Until now, Air Sinai flew the route.

Air Sinai is a subsidiary of EgyptAir and their planes do not display the Egyptian flag on their tail wing.

Air Sinai was created in 1982 specifically for the purpose of fulfilling the treaty which clearly stipulates that there will be official commercial air flight travel between Egypt and Israel.

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Wild Antelopes Roaming
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Arabian Oryx is a white wild antelope. In the beginning of the 20th century, these antelopes became extinct. Or so we thought!

A large herd of Arabian Oryx was seen grazing and strolling about the Arava desert. The video shows at least 16 of these white, wild, antelopes.

There is no mistaking them with their white bodies, black stiped head and black antlers.

In the early 2000’s Israel released several oryxes into the wild in the hope of allowing them to reproduce. We now know that the experiment was a success.
The video, shot by a Drone, verifies that this is a new herd with at least 4 newborn Arabian Oryx.

There may be many more herds out there.

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Birds Arriving in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Fall is the season for bird migration.

The birds of Europe are now flying south to Africa for the winter. And one of their most popular routes is to fly right over Israel.

The birds fly, land and then, most of them move and return 6 months later, in the beginning of Spring, for their return trip. Some birds, however, seem to like what they see and remain in Israel.

Traditionally, bird watches from all over the world flock to Israel to witness this yearly occurrence. This year, however, COVID has put a damper on bird watching.

But the birds are still coming.

The most majestic sight of all is the arrival of storks. They come in the hundreds and sometimes in the thousands and they appear to cover the sky.

Storks are huge, measuring 3 feet in length and with 6 foot wing spans.

In a single day as many as 100,000 storks arrive in Israel. Over the next few days between half a million and a million storks will drop in and visit the Holy Land.

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Israel Selling Arms to NATO
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Czech Republic will buy a new air defense system from Israel. The new, Israeli, system, will be used to replace their 50-year-old Soviet air defense system.

This is over a half billion dollar deal and it clearly demonstrates that Israel is making headway with NATO nations when it comes to arms sales.

Although exact details and numbers are secret, it looks like Rafael Industries, one of Israel’s arms manufacturers, will provide the Czech Republic with 4 mid-range anti-missile batteries as well as command and control units.

The system is designed to protect cities and nuclear facilities.

Slovakia, another NATO nation, has placed an order with Israel for similar defense weapons, mostly radar and control devices.

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House Votes 420-9 for Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is good news when a bill supporting Israel wins by a whopping vote of 420 – 9 in the House of Representatives.

And that’s exactly what happened when the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly for legislation to provide $1 billion to Israel to replenish its "Iron Dome" missile-defense system.

Referring to the vote as a "resounding response" to those challenging the United States' support of Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said:
"Thanks to all members of the U.S. House of Representatives, Democratic and Republican alike, for their sweeping support for Israel and the commitment to its security. Those who try to challenge this support got a resounding response today."

In the debate that preceded the vote, Democratic Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian American, termed Israel an "apartheid state" and demanded that the House of Representatives discuss the protection of Palestinians from Israeli attacks.

She said: "I firmly believe our country must oppose selling weapons to anyone, anywhere without human rights law compliance."

House majority leader Steny Hoyer said support of Israel is not a partisan matter.
In his words: "We vigorously, strongly, unshakably stand for Israel's right to defend itself against terror … Iron Dome has saved countless lives.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the Iron Dome was purely a defensive system and said: "Passage of this bill reflects the great unity in Congress on a bipartisan and bicameral basis for Israel's security … Assistance to Israel is vital, because Israel's security is an imperative for America's security. Today, and every day, Congress stands in support of a comprehensive, durable peace in the region, and we pray for every life lost on all sides of this conflict.”.

This is a major statement of support for Israel.

As an aside, hedging her bets, AOC voted NO VOTE, or PRESENT in the proposal.
After the vote, she apologized to her supporters.

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Iran Talking to Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A new, potential problem may be emerging in the Middle East. The anti-Iran block may be cracking – and that is not good news for the West.

There are reports that talks between Middle East regional rivals Tehran and Riyadh have led to "serious progress" on the issue of Gulf security. The direct quote is: "Serious progress has been made on the subject of security in the Gulf," and the quote was released by Iran’s state news agency IRNA, quoting ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh.

For the first time since 2016 when they cut ties, Shiite-majority Iran and Sunni kingpin Saudi Arabia, on opposing sides in multiple regional conflicts, have been engaged in talks since April with the aim of improving relations.

The discussions began under Iran's former moderate president Hassan Rouhani and have continued on, even after the election of his ultra-conservative successor, Ebrahim Raisi, who took over the reins of office in August.

Speaking to journalists at the UN General Assembly, spokesman Khatibzadeh assessed the talks as "good" and called for the countries to settle regional issues between themselves, without foreign interference.

This does not portend well for us.

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Turks Say Ties w US Strained
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Finally, the Turks are going public and acknowledging that diplomatic ties with the United States are strained over their purchase of Russian S-400 anti-air batteries.

According to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's ties with the United States were not healthy and Washington needed to "sort out" issues.

Ties between the NATO allies hit a low point earlier this year when Washington sanctioned the Turkish defense industry over the S-400s purchase. Washington also expelled Ankara from its F-35 jet program, where it was a buyer and manufacturer.

After attending the UN General Assembly Erdogan spoke to reporters and is quoted as saying: "I cannot say that a healthy process is running in Turkish-American ties ... We bought F-35s, we paid $1.4 billion and these F-35s were not given to us.
The United States needs to first sort this out.”.

The problem with this new public realization is that Turkey is laying blame with the United States and with NATO when it is Turkey that created this situation.

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Meron Finally An Answer
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Finally, details of the Meron stampede in which 45 people were killed in Israel, in April, are coming out.

Ynet published leaked protocols of a meeting of Israeli Police top brass and other senior officials indicating that they were aware, in advance, of all the problems that led to the deadly stampede. And yet, they decided not to stop the celebration at Meron.

In a meeting on April 19 officials discussed all the different and complex security issues pertaining to the event, including COVID-19 restrictions, crowd control and securing access routes to the tomb site.

Ynet has compiled some of the main points raised by police higher-ups in the damning document:

These are the pertinent components of the meeting as quoted by YNET:

Police Northern District Commander Maj.-Gen. Shimon Lavi, who oversaw the event on the ground, remains the only official to publicly take responsibility for the tragedy. However, the protocols show that Israel's top cop — Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai — was the one who pushed to authorize the mass event without any restrictions on the number of parishioners allowed on the mountain.

Shabtai and others at the meeting recognized the dangers entailed in allowing large masses of people to pass through the tomb site's narrow walkways at the same time.

"These issues require concentration of effort and attention in the preparation in light of the large number of participants in a small and limited space and the tangible danger to human life," he said.

Northern District Commander Lavi was the only official present at the meeting who pushed to put a cap on the number of participants allowed on the mountain concurrently.

"I recommended an outline… [allowing] 10,000 people to enter the mountain at any given moment. The outline is challenging, but we must make a decision," Lavi said in the meeting.

Another official who sounded the alarm about a potential disaster was then-head of police Operations Department Maj.-Gen. Amnon Alkalay who pointed to the site's rickety infrastructure and called to prepare for a potential mass-casualty event.
Alkalay also admitted that the police would have been unable to enforce coronavirus restrictions at the packed festival if any had been imposed.

"Israel Police will not be able to meet the restrictions... Choosing between safety and health — safety comes first, and preventing overcrowding would serve both purposes," he said.

Then-Israel Police legal adviser Ayelet Elyashar and Human Resources Department chief Maj.-Gen. Boaz Goldberg also joined Alkalay's warnings, stating that enforcing such measures would not be feasible.

In the end, all their fears were realized. 45 people are dead. Countless others will carry emotional scars throughout their lives.

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Sudan Kicks Hamas Out
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Sudan joined UAE, Bahrain and Morocco declaring that they were normalizing ties with Israel.

Now they are taking a big step forward and stopping all support for Hamas and other terror groups. As a result of that step, the United States has removed Sudan from state sponsors of terror lists enabling the Sudanese to trade freely with the West and netting them well over $50 billion in deals in a very short period of time.
Hamas is no longer operating in their country.

Hamas had major investments in real estate, restaurants and construction in Sudan. Their assets have been seized – including 50 of those companies.

Remember, before signing on to the Abraham Accords in January, Sudan was the hub of terror. Sudan sheltered Osama Bin Laden and Sudan was the center of operations for Palestinian terror.

The United States was firm in insisting that to join the movement, they needed to totally cut off ties and support to terrorist.

This is a huge step forward for Sudan and for the world.

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FL & AZ Divest from Ben & Jerry's
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Florida and Arizona are finalizing their divestment from Unilever, the owner of Ben & Jerrys.

Ash Williams, executive director and chief investment officer of the State Board of Administration of Florida told the Miami Herald that he anticipated Unilever will be added to what is known as Florida’s list of “scrutinized companies that boycott Israel” prohibiting state investments and contracts with the companies.

The Florida announcement came shortly after Arizona made a similar announcement indicating that it is pulling all the public funds it has invested in the ice cream parlor chain.

Ben & Jerry's pro-BDS statement was issued last July following pressure from pro-Palestinian groups on the Vermont-based company over its business in Israel and Jewish settlements in the West Bank, handled through a licensee partner since 1987.

The company also said it will not renew the license agreement with its Israeli franchise when it expires at the end of next year.

Arizona state treasurer Kimberly Yee — a Republican who is running for governor of her state — said the decision to pull all public funds invested in the frozen dessert company was in compliance with a 2019 state law that bars Arizona government agencies from holding investments or doing more than $100,000 in business with any firm that boycotts Israel or its territories.

On her Twitter feed, Yee posted: "Arizona created a national movement holding companies accountable for boycotting Israel by divesting public funds from woke companies … Israel is and will continue to be a major trade partner of AZ. #IStandWithIsrael and I will not allow taxpayer dollars to go towards anti-Semitic, discriminatory efforts against Israel.”

Arizona and Florida are the first states to have fully divested themselves from Ben & Jerry's and Unilever while Illinois and New Jersey, among other states, warned they would pull any public-funded investments if the company's board does not change its decision within three months.

Florida and Arizona have $139 million and $143 million, respectively, in holdings in Unilever and its subsidiaries. That is over a Ľ billion dollars.

This is significant. And this is just the beginning.

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Had COVID 3 months Can Enter Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In a major step forward, a step that recognizes natural immunity for those who have suffered from COVID, Israel has decided that those who have had COVID within the past 90 days do not need a PCR test to enter Israel. Effective immediately and for the next three months.

The decision was made unanimously by the Exceptions Committee of the Foreign Ministry and the Population and Immigration Authority.

Of course, travelers must provide proof that they had and have recovered from the virus.

Three months is a start. It signifies that Israel is following the science which indicates that people who have had COVID are safe for at least 90 days.

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Israeli Baseball Wins
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is not known for their baseball prowess – until now, when the Israeli national baseball team took a silver medal in the European Baseball Championships.

The team lost to the Netherlands in the finals with a score of 9 to 4, taking second place. Earlier in the games, during the semi-finals, Israel defeated Italy 11 to 5.

This is Israel’s second time in the games. And it is their first time taking a medal.
Four years ago they came close and took fourth place after losing to Spain which took home the bronze.

The Netherlands has won 24 times. That is impressive. But, for such a young team and young program, Israel’s silver is also quite impressive.

Good going Israel.

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ISIS Terror in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There was a terror attack in Syria. The attack struck a gas line that powered an electricity station.

On the state news agency SANA, Syria's electricity minister acknowledged that an attack on one of the gas lines at Deir Ali station led to an electricity outage that affected the capital city Damascus, its outskirts and other areas, and that repair work is ongoing.

The Minister told state TV that electricity was expected to return to Damascus within an hour of his announcement and then, successively, to other affected areas.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack according to a statement published on its affiliated channels.

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Bennett Responds to FDA
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Prime Minister commented on the FDA’s decision to support the third vaccine for high-risk people and people over 65.

Naftali Bennett predicted that the United States will gradually begin to offer the vaccine more widely after being presented with scientific data from Israel.

On Twitter, Bennett asserted that: "The FDA decided to follow in Israel's path … I estimate that the FDA will gradually approve the extension of the vaccine to more age groups, as has happened in Israel, as the effectiveness of the second vaccine continues to decline even among younger age groups.”

The FDA decision will make people uneasy about the vaccine. If it is good for those over 65, it should be good for those 64 and under.

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EU & Israel Accept COVID Cards
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Countries around the world are beginning to create agreements allowing for travel – as long as the travelers have COVID certificates.

Israel and European Union have agreed on mutual recognition of their certificates for coronavirus vaccinations. The move enables Israelis in Europe to apply for and receive local green passes which will give them the ability to enter restaurants, cultural events and public buildings. European citizens will enjoy reciprocal status in Israel.

The problem with the agreement is that it allows each EU country to decide on its own, whether or not it wants Israelis - it does not prevent individual countries within the EU from restricting entry to Israelis.

Despite that caveat, this is an important step toward normalization even as the world is witnessing spikes in the Delta variant.

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Bennett Won't Meet Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli PM Naftali Bennett explained why he will not meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas.

Bennett gave YNET the reasons for his decision. He said:
"My perception is different than that of the defense minister although we work in harmony. I oppose a Palestinian state and I think it would be a grave mistake to import the failed Gaza model of Hamas which shoots rockets at us and turn the entire West Bank to that.”

Bennett also explained why Defense Minister Benny Gantz met with Abbas and why he can and should continue to meet with him.
Bennett explained that Gantz has different issues and different variables at play when deciding to meet with Abbas. But for him, it is a very different situation. He said:

"I see no logic in meeting Abbas when he's suing our soldiers in the Hague and accuses our commanders of war crimes. In my opinion, the Palestinian Authority is a failed entity.”

The government is acting in concert – there are no secrets among Israel’s leaders.

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Israeli PM Visits Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

For the first time in a decade an Israeli prime minister went to Egypt - publicly.
Egypt is the very first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel – but – over the past few years, the relationship cooled.

That might be changing.

Israeli PM Naftali Bennett travelled to Israel and met with Egyptian President al Sisi. The meeting took place at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheikh, located at the very southern tip of the Sinai Desert.

The most significant purpose of this Egyptian/Israeli talk was to come up with a plan to jumpstart talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Additionally, Bennett and al Sisi were able to discuss regional tensions in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and of course Iran and Iran’s influence in the region.

By the meeting’s end, al Sisi volunteered to host an Israeli/Palestinian summit.

The question is, will the Palestinians accept the invitation.

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Israel Preps a 4th Booster
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

2.8 million senior adults in Israel have already received their third COVID vaccine.
That is almost everyone eligible for the booster.

And Israel is already securing and preparing a fourth vaccine. The reason should be clear. There is no way to know what will happen next. A fourth shot may be necessary, and necessary around the bend.

In an interview on Radio 103FM, Nachman Ash, Israel’s Health Ministry Director
General explained the thinking this way: “We don’t know when it will happen; I hope very much that it won’t be within six months, like this time, and that the third dose will last for longer.”

Most countries haven’t yet figured out how to vaccinate their citizens in a first round. Israel is preparing for a fourth!

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A Plan for Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Economy for security – that, in a nutshell, is Israel’s plan to bring quiet to Israel from Gaza.

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has laid out a detailed plan.

Lapid presented his outline in an address to the International Counter-Terrorism Conference at Reichman University, formerly called IDC, the Interdisciplinary College. The plan is dubbed "Economy for Security" and will include two phases.

Phase 1 will be humanitarian rehabilitation for Gaza in return for combating Hamas' efforts to increase its military capabilities.

Phase 2 will see the Palestinian Authority take control of civil and economic affairs in the enclave.

Sounds simple, sounds easy – on paper. We will see what happens when reality sets in.

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20 yrs Since 9-11
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It’s been 20 years since that fateful day, the day that changed history.

The world is a different place because of what happened that Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001.

What we consider a given, that al Qaeda, under the leadership of Osama Bin Ladin, perpetrated a triple hijacking that resulted in 2,977 deaths and over 20,000 wounded – is not what many people living in the Middle East think happened on that day.

Conspiracy theories positing that 9-11 was not the work of Muslim terrorists are rampant. They believe, instead, that Israel and the CIA colluded to cause that unfathomable act of terror. Or that the United States conspired to destroy their own Twin Towers.

It’s all about perspective. For many, facts and truth be damned.

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Taliban & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Taliban has announced that they are not at all interested in any diplomatic ties with Israel. What do you know – not a surprise.

The surprise is that they made the announcement in the first place.

Taliban spokesman, Suhaul Shaheen, spoke to Sputnik News Service, a Russian news outlet and said that the Taliban would cooperate with the United States.

He said: "Of course, we will not have any relations with Israel. We want to have relations with other countries, Israel is not among these countries."

"Yes, of course, if America wants to have a relationship with us, which could be in the interest of both countries and both peoples, and if they want to participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, they are welcome.”

The Taliban has already named a provisional government and that government includes several people wanted for terror offenses. Among that group are:

Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, a veteran of the group who is on a UN sanctions list and served as the Islamist regime’s brutal leader between 1996-2001. He was named as acting prime minister.

Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is wanted by the FBI for suspected involvement in a 2008 terror attack in Kabul that killed six people, including an American, and other alleged offenses. He has a $10 million bounty on his head. And he was named as acting interior minister.

Taliban co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar will be the deputy prime minister. He previously served as the head of his movement’s political office, overseeing the 2020 signing of the U.S. withdrawal agreement.

Mullah Yaqoob, son of the Taliban founder and late supreme leader Mullah Omar, was named defense minister.

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Uman & COVID
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Those Israelis who visited Uman this year for Rosh HaShannah have returned home and along with their luggage, they are bringing home COVID.
And the virus is barreling in at a startling rate.

Followers of Rebbe Nachman travel to Uman, in Ukraine, to visit the grave of Rebbe Nachman of Bratslav. Being there for Rosh HaShannah holds serious significance.

In order to return to Israel, travelers from Uman and everywhere else, were required to ahow proof if a negative PCR test. Many of those who returned had COVID and forged their PCR test results.

The COVID positive travelers most certainly infected the entire planeload of people by traveling while infected. Ad then they infected everyone they were in contact with at the airport and upon returning to their apartments - especially their children.

Those now exposed children go to school, see other children and infect them.
Uman has become a super-spreader event. This may be the single largest super-spreader event in Israel since the beginning of COVID.

This behavior is simply unacceptable – it is sheer arrogance of the highest order.

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Abraham Accords 1 yr Later
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It has been just over a year since the signing of the first Abraham Accords, the U.S. brokered agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Even though the first of the accords were signed during the peak of COIVD, there was a flurry of activity and back and forth travel between the countries.

Israelis flocked to the UAE and Bahrain, some even made weddings and forged new business contacts in these once forbidden countries. But most of the travel and excitement has been one way, one sided.

Residents of the Arab countries are being discreet about their forays into Israel. While we are seeing significant investments, those making the investments are keeping a low profile. They are taking private planes so as not to be seen in the terminals and on the flights coming to and from Israel.

Israelis are jumping at opportunities. The question is whether these will be long term or short term opportunities. Will the relationship develop or disappear after one cycle? Will there be continued and open reciprocity?

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Moderna & The Flu Shot
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Moderna has announced that it is developing a single vaccine that combines a booster dose against COVID-19 with its experimental flu shot.

Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, presented an update during a presentation to investors on the company’s drugs in development. During the presentation Bancel said: "We believe this is a very large opportunity that is ahead of us, if we could bring to market a high efficacy pan-respiratory annual booster … We believe Moderna could be first to market in this important new opportunity.”

The drugmaker already had several influenza vaccine candidates in development before the corona virus hit. This new vaccine combines the experimental flu shot that is furthest along together with Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine.

The company has also already started clinical trials for a vaccine appropriate for older adults.

Novavax, another pharmaceutical company, has also announced that it has initiated an early-stage study to test its combined flu and COVID-19 vaccine.
This is a major step forward.

By combining the vaccines into a single booster injection, recipients will bolster their overall protection.

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COVID in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It seems that the 4th wave of COVID in Israel is beginning to subside.
Positivity rates have been dropping, the numbers of hospitalizations are dropping and deaths are dropping - but that said, there are still people dying.
COVID is still there and still dangerous, even for those Israelis who are triple vaccinated.

Here are some number from Sunday, September 5th:
After 11 more Israelis succumbed to the virus, the total death toll since the start of the pandemic rose to 7,205.

Of the 127 people who died from COVID since the beginning of September - 65 were unvaccinated, 42 received the first two doses of the vaccine but not the booster shot and 15 received all three vaccinations.

39,600 Israelis received the third dose of the coronavirus vaccine on Sunday.
2.6 million Israelis were given the shot since its rollout late in July.

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Even Harder to Get out of Afghanistan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Private organizations and private people are still chartering planes to help US citizens and Afghanis who were helpful to the United States, escape Afghanistan.
They are facing terrible obstacles.

At least four chartered planes, capable of rescuing several hundred people, are instead literally sitting on a tarmac in Afghanistan. They have been unable to board the people they came to rescue. They have been unable to leave the country for days. There are a variety of reasons for why they cannot take off.

An Afghan official at the airport in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif said that the would-be passengers were Afghans, many of whom did not have passports or visas, and thus were unable to leave the country. He said they had left the airport while the situation was being sorted out.

Entrance and exit to Afghanistan has now been tightened.

None of this portends well for those desperate to leave the now Taliban-led country.

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Attacking Saudi Oil Fields
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There was an attack on the oil fields of Saudi Arabia. A missile was shot and intercepted over Saudi Arabia's oil-rich eastern region. The Saudi ministry of defense reported news of the attack.

The missile was intercepted over a suburb of the city of Dammam. The falling shrapnel from the destroyed missile fell and injured two Saudi children and caused light damage to 14 houses. This news came in a statement carried by Saudi Arabia’s state news agency SPA.

Photos on state media showed broken glass and the damaged entrances of several residential buildings.

Conventional wisdom blames the attack on Iran-aligned Houthi forces. There has been no immediate claim of responsibility in Houthi-run media.

The coalition of Western powers policing the region report that they have intercepted and destroyed ballistic missiles heading towards Jazan and Najran in the southern part of the country. They earlier reported the interception of three explosive-laden drones headed towards the Saudi Kingdom.

Iran sponsored tensions are increasing. It is just a matter of time before one of these missiles gets through.

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Europe Wants Iran Talks
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

France, Germany and The United Kingdom have all been urging Iran to come back to the table and, once again, talk to the P-5+1 about their nuclear plans.

In response, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi announced that Iran would, indeed, resume talks with world powers with the objective of reviving the 2015 nuke deal.
But – and this is a big “but” they will not sit down and talk with Western "pressure". Raisi also made it cleat that Iran’s objective is the lifting of U.S.- imposed sanctions.

Negotiations without pressure. I do not thank that exists anywhere in the world. The entire point of negotiations is to push and to be pushed back. Maybe, quite possibly, this is Iran’s first push.

France and Germany have pushing Iran to return to negotiations. A break in the talks was called a few months ago to allow for Iranian elections in June. And now, elections are over and France is demanding an immediate restart amid Western concerns over Tehran's expanding atomic work.

Last month the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), aka the UN’s nuclear watchdog, confirmed that. For the first time, Iran has produced uranium metal enriched up to 20% fissile purity and lifted their production capacity of uranium enriched to 60%.

And that is the impetus for the big push by France, Germany and Britain to get Iran back to the table and talking.

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Israel Critiques US Departure
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


In an unusual diplomatic moment, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on Wednesday criticized the way the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, which led to the consequent takeover of the country by the Taliban terrorist organization.
It is unusual for the Israeli Foreign Ministry to comment on US policy.

Lapid said: "The withdrawal was botched. I think the whole world is worried, America first and foremost.”

Lapid continued: "This was probably the right decision, but the way it was done was wrong. I do not think we fully understand the implications of this move. This is going to have a big impact on al-Qaeda, and on ISIS.”

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School Starts in Israel w COVID
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Today the school year opened in Israel.

About two and a half million students went back to school on Wednesday Sept 1 –
Israel’s traditional first day of school - even as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to rage on.

Education Ministry Director General Yigal Slovik announced that about 250,000 other students were in quarantine and could not attend school.

He explained: "We must get used to living this way this year. the numbers will only go up but most students will continue to learn in person next to their friends, with teachers. 90% of students are in school".

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Bennett on TikTok
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In order to increase the vaccination rate among teenagers, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett hosted a live broadcast on the TikTok video sharing app, where he answered viewers questions regarding vaccines and the risks of COVID.

"The coronavirus is an epidemic that will end someday. Will we have to get vaccinated every six months for the next few years? Maybe yes, maybe no," said Bennett. "I believe that within two months, approval will be given to vaccinate children aged 6 to 12."

"We see that the vaccines work. It could be that the third jab will last forever, it could last for no more then half a year, and that's not the end of the world. What matters is that the vaccine is not a poison. The poison is the pathogen."

Hopefully, this venture into teenage social media works.

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Israel-PA Dialogue
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

For the first time in over a decade, a high level Israeli met face-to-face with the PA leader. Israel’s Minister of Defense Benny Gantz travelled to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

In and of itself, this trip was a symbol of respect shown by Gantz, representing Israel, for Abbas, representing the Palestinian Authority.

Their discussion, we are told, was on security issues, not diplomacy.

As expected, Hamas slammed the meeting between Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In an official statement the terrorist organization termed the meeting: "a knife in the back of our people and sacrifice and a betrayal for the blood of the martyrs."

According to their statement: "Abu Mazen [Abbas] continues to give up on the national values and work to justify the occupation. "He does not represent his people, only himself.”

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Lebanon Oil Shortage
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I have already described the fuel shortage in Lebanon and how Hezbollah is sending tankers to Iran for fuel. There is a new addendum to the situation.

A dispute over scarce fuel supplies ignited sectarian tensions between neighboring Shi'ite Muslim and Christian villages in southern Lebanon, forcing the army to intervene.

The clashes center on the crippling gasoline and diesel shortages that have become a daily occurrence in Lebanon, and now there is concern that Lebanon will descend into chaos and a sectarian civil war.

The Lebanese have been suffering from severe financial woes for two long years.

Sources report that around six people were wounded in a dispute involving residents of the Christian village of Maghdouche and the Shi'ite village of Ankoun.

The incident spiraled out of control when a Maghdouche resident filed a complaint to police after being injured during a dispute over fuel and police visited Ankoun to investigate.

Villagers blocked roads and burned trees and troops were deployed in an effort to bring the situation under control.

This is just one example of the conflict enveloping Lebanon.

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Israel's COVID Stats
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 28, 2021
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Israel is very open about their COVID situation and statistics - and what happens in Israel has helped medical and scientific personnel around the world shape decisions for their own populations. It should be clear from the COVID situation in Israel that vaccines blunt the virus but vaccines do not eradicate the virus.

Israel is experiencing its 4th COVID spike. In an effort to stave off more cases, vaccines are readily available and strongly advised and many Israelis have already received their booster, a third shot.

What is also clear is that the blunting of COVID means fewer deaths and fewer hospitalizations for high risk people.

Most recently, half of those Israelis who tested positive for COVID were double vaccinated - and few of them were required to be hospitalized. Of the other half, the unvaccinated, many are fighting for their lives.

Most of those people requiring hospitalization in Israel as aa result of COVID, are unvaccinated.

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Iran's Shadow Oil Fleet
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 27, 2021
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Iran has a shadow fleet of oil tankers that is operating daily, shipping fuel to China.

The Iranians are, once again, skirting international sanctions. About 700,000 gallons of oil per day is shipped from Iran to China.

As part of its strategic support, China is assisting Iran in selling pirated oil. This Chinese-sponsored oil export allows Iran to maintain regime stability and inject foreign money into the state coffers.

China is also helping Iran operate its shadow fleet so that the tankers will not be detected.

This, for example, is how they do it: the tankers transmit their incorrect location into the Automatic Identification Systems, the AIS, required by international shipping laws. The tankers are repainted, and the tankers' names are changed to cover the real identity of the tankers.

In another example: the Iranian shadow fleet tankers change their flag with frequency. This move is backed by a global operational infrastructure set up by the Iranian Quds Force, which includes a huge array of straw companies whose tankers are registered as owned.

And this is how Iran manages to inject much-needed money into its coffers, to revive its economy and to continue its arms race to build offensive capabilities and complete its nuclear program – which is getting closer and closer to completion.

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Israeli NGO Sending Planes to Afghanistan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 26, 2021
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The Shai Fund in Israel is organizing planes to airlift people out of Afghanistan.

Charmaine Hedding is the president of the fund and she works out of her home in the coastal Israeli town of Zichron Yaakov. Hedding is working feverishly to help extract thousands of people desperate to leave Afghanistan.

Hedding is an emergency response specialist and the Shai Fund is a humanitarian organization based in Israel and registered in the United States.

She revealed that her organization is heading up logistics, in coordination with the U.S. military, on a pending series of private flights that are set to swoop in and out of Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, in order to evacuate high-risk human rights defenders and other activists, including some high-profile personnel, who are direct targets of the Taliban, the Islamist group that has rapidly retaken control of the country upon the withdrawal of US and international forces, two decades after being overthrown.

I’m quoting: “We formed a coalition because, of course, this is a huge operation.
We have private charter flights. So, this is a civil society, grassroots initiative, run by NGOs (non-government organizations) like mine. We have raised the funds to get the flights in. So we have our first flight arriving. And these flights can take up to 300 people.”

“We’ve got 10 flights, back-to-back potentially, but there’s no point if we land in
Kabul airport and they can’t get through the gates because the Taliban are controlling the gates to the airport. And so, we have to break that open and negotiate where we come in, and we establish this humanitarian corridor so that we can evacuate our people out.”

The humanitarian aid the Shai Fund can offer is desperately needed. Hopefully, they will find a way.

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Gaza Balloons of Fire
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Gaza is once again lofting balloons that fall as fire bombs inside Israel.

So once again, Israel struck back in response.

The Israeli air force attacked two sites in Gaza after Gazans clashed with IDF forces on the border and launched incendiary balloons at southern Israel.

A statement issued by the Israeli army reads: "IDF fighter jets struck a Hamas military compound used for manufacturing weapons and training as well as an entrance to a terror tunnel adjacent to Jabalia."

"The strikes were in response to Hamas launching incendiary balloons into Israeli territory and the violent riots that took place yesterday."

According to the army, both incidents were "examples of how Hamas continues to employ terror tactics and target civilians."

There were no reports from Gaza of casualties caused by these Israeli strikes.

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Rabbis Vs the Pope
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There is a kerfuffle going on between the Chief Rabbinate of Israel and the Pope.

The Israeli Chief Rabbinate sent a letter to the Pope asking for an explanation and for clarification after a very significant public address that he gave.

Rabbi Ratzon Arusi, chairman of the Rabbinates Commission on Dialogue with the Holy See, aka the Vatican, sent the letter to the Vatican.

The issue in question is simple and yet, very crucial. It is at the very essence of how Christians view Jews and how Christianity views Judaism.

On August 11, speaking at the Vatican, Pope Francis said that God gave the Torah to the Jewish people. He said: “God offered them the Torah, the Law, so they could understand his will and live in justice. We have to think that at that time, a Law like this was necessary, it was a tremendous gift that God gave his people.”

Later, however, Pope Francis added an addendum to his remarks when he said:
“The Law, however, does not give life, it does not offer the fulfillment of the promise because it is not capable of being able to fulfill it. The Law is a journey, a journey that leads toward an encounter… Those who seek life need to look to the promise and to its fulfillment in Christ.”

In his letter to the Vatican, Arusi wrote: “In his homily, the pope presents the Christian faith as not just superseding the Torah; but asserts that the latter no longer gives life, implying that Jewish religious practice in the present era is rendered obsolete … This is in effect part and parcel of the ‘teaching of contempt’ towards Jews and Judaism that we had thought had been fully repudiated by the Church.”

Truth be told, this is actually the way Christianity understands their role versus the Jewish role. And that is why Christians term their Bible the New Bible or New Testament and refer to the Jewish Bible as the Old Testament.

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A Day in the Life of the PM
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Ayelet Shaked co-leads the Yamina party with Israel’s Prime Minster Naftali Bennett.

Shaked said that she will bolt from the coalition and bring down the government if they even begin discussions about a Palestinians state.
Bennett is a rotating prime minister. He will leave office after serving as prime minister for two year and Yair Lapid will step in.

It is no secret that Lapid is in favor of a two-state solution. It is assumed that there will be discussion of the subject during the first two years of this government - while Bennett holds the position of prime minister.

That would probably be a wise move.

The Arab party in the coalition – an integral part of the coalition - also threatened to bolt if Bennett responds to the increased cross border fire balloons, fire kites and rockets coming from Gaza.

Bennett is in a bind. Another typical day as prime minister.

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PA Clamps Down on Protests
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 22, 2021
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Palestinians police in the West Bank, under the direction of the Palestinian Authority, are clamping down on protests.

Palestinian police arrested 24 people protesting the death of a prominent political activist while in the custody of Palestinian security forces.

The demonstrators had planned to call for accountability in the death of Nizar Banat, an outspoken critic of the Palestinian Authority who died while in custody on June 24, shortly after he was arrested. Instead police prevented the protest and arrested the two dozen activists.

PA police spokesman Louay Arzeigat issued a statement that the demonstrators had not received a permit and "refused to sign the conditions for the gathering." The statement did not elaborate further.

Banat's family has said that he was beaten as he was taken out of his home and they have accused the Palestinian Authority of trying to cover up the death.
Palestinian officials have said the matter is under investigation.

The protesting group’s major complaint - aside from regular human rights abuses, is that the PA was elected for four years back in 2005 – and that same government is still in control in 2021.

Abbas has faced mounting pressure for calling off parliamentary elections whenever it appears that his Fatah party would suffer crushing defeat at the hands of their rival, the Hamas militant group.

Al-Haq, a Palestinian human rights organization, condemned the security services for blocking this demonstration and making the arrests.

It accused the government of "attacking the rights and freedoms guaranteed by law" and called for the immediate release of those who were arrested.

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Poland Overturns Ruling
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 21, 2021
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An appellate court in Poland rejected a lower court’s decision forcing two Holocaust scholars to apologize for defaming the uncle of a Polish woman who, they said, collaborated with the Nazis.

The case against these two Holocaust scholars has been closely watched around the world. It was expected to serve as a precedent for research into the highly sensitive area of Polish behavior toward Jews during World War II.
Poland is governed by a nationalist conservative party that has sought to promote remembrance of Polish heroism and suffering during the wartime German occupation of the country. The party also believes that discussions of Polish wrongdoing distort the historical picture and are unfair to Poles.

In explaining its decision, the Appellate Court of Warsaw argued that it did not believe that it was the responsibility of the courts to judge scholarly research.
The ruling was welcomed by the two researchers, Jan Grabowski and Barbara Engelking, who declared it a "great victory" in a Facebook post.

They wrote: "We greet the verdict with great joy and satisfaction all the more, that this decision has a direct impact on all Polish scholars, and especially on historians of the Holocaust.”

The ruling comes half a year after a lower court ordered the two researchers to apologize to a woman who claimed that her deceased uncle had been defamed in a historical work they edited and partially wrote, entitled: "Night Without End: The Fate of Jews in Selected Counties of Occupied Poland."

Lawyers for the niece, 81-year-old Filomena Leszczynska, argued that her uncle was a Polish hero who had saved Jews, and that the scholars had harmed her good name and that of her family by suggesting the uncle was also involved in the killing of Jews.

Poland was occupied by Nazi Germany during World War II and its Jewish population was subjected to mass murder and slave labor. During the more than five years of occupation there were both Poles who helped the Germans and took part in the killing, and Poles who risked their lives to save Jews.

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Israel To Grow Avocados in Morocco
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 20, 2021
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Superfoods are considered to be extremely nutritious and healthful. They are in big demand in the market.

Avocado is a superfood. Israel grows many avocados and wants to grow even more to take advantage of the growing market.

And so, Israel’s largest grower and exporter of citrus — Mehadrin — announced that for the first time it will begin growing avocados in Morocco as it attempts to meet the constantly rising demand for the superfood.

Following the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, during which Morocco was the last of four Muslim majority and Arab countries to join, there has been a gradual deepening of ties between the Jewish state and the North African Kingdom.
Mehadrin is also looking to expand production to Africa and Latin America in a bid to produce the fruit year-round and also, to lower costs.

“Planting the avocados in Morocco is part of a larger plan to be able to supply our European customers more easily than from Israel in terms of geography and in terms of more competitive costs,” Mehadrin CEO Shaul Shelach told the news site The Algemeiner.

Shelach added that demand for avocados is currently outstripping supply, which he assesses will be a thing of the past when the superfood is grown more widely in both hemispheres of the globe. The current Israeli growing season extends only from October to March or April.

Shelach hopes to start planting the avocados as soon as he gets land from the Moroccan government. Mehadrin will have fruit in three years and full production in five.

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3rd Dose For Over 40 in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli government approved the COVID vaccine for everyone over 40.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has already received his third dose of the coronavirus vaccine.

Bennett urged everyone in his age group to get their booster shots. "If you get vaccinated, we will be able to avoid a fourth lockdown," he said.

The United States is now offering third doses of the vaccine now to people who are immunocompromised.

The figures coming out of Israel for those over 60 who received a third dose several weeks ago indicate that very few people of that age group have gotten sick from COVID.

It seems clear that the third dose boosts protection against the Delta variant.

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Poland May Deny Israeli HS Students Entry
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 18, 2021
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Almost every high school student in Israel travels to Poland during their tenure in high school. And now Poland is rethinking that practice. Poland is rethinking permitting Israeli youth trips to enter their country.

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński said that the Poland is reexamining educational trips by Israeli youth because, he asserts, the trips teach hatred of Poland.

This re-examination of a long held tradition comes in the context of a huge diplomatic feud between Israel and Poland over the passing of a Holocaust restitution law.

According to the Polish foreign minister: "Educational trips from Israel to Poland do not take place in a proper manner [and are conducted] in a way that hatred of Poland sometimes seeps into the minds of young people. We will examine the issue in depth because it is clear that the way these tours take place is not the right way.”

He has accused Israel of fostering "anti-Polonism" which is prejudice against Poles as an ethnic group and the state of Poland and its culture.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called the signing of the property restitution law “a shameful decision and disgraceful contempt for the memory of the Holocaust” and said that “Poland has chosen to continue harming those who have lost everything.”

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Iran Enriching Uranium Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 17, 2021
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The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, has announced that Iran is producing uranium that can be used to build a nuclear bomb.

This discovery by the IAEA is a major obstacle to renewing talks between the P-5+1 and Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that his inspector now found that Iran had produced 200 grams at 20% enrichment. Just a few months ago Iran had produced only 3.6 grams at uranium at 20% enrichment.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the move by Iran was “unconstructive and inconsistent with a return to mutual compliance.”

He said: “Iran has no credible need to produce uranium metal, which has direct relevance to nuclear weapons development ... Such escalations will not provide Iran negotiating leverage in any renewed talks on a mutual return to JCPOA compliance and will only lead to Iran’s further isolation.”

He further said that “Iran’s nuclear advances have a bearing on our view of returning to the JCPOA,” and suggested that the U.S. was slowly running out of patience.

Price said: “We are not imposing a deadline for negotiations, but this window will not remain open indefinitely.”

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3 Israeli Schools in Top 100
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 16, 2021
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Three Israel universities made it into the list of Top 100 Universities in the World. Three!

Hebrew University took the 90th position. The Weizmann Institute grabbed the 92nd spot. The Technion was awarded 94th place.

These Israeli universities are in very good company.

Harvard was given first place for the 19th year in a row. Stanford was in 2nd place and Cambridge in 3rd place.

This is a huge honor and special recognition for Israel. To understand just how big an honor this is and to put it in perspective, there are 5,300 colleges and universities in the United States alone. And there are over 17,000 colleges and universities in the world.

Being in the top 100 universities in the world is a distinction worthy of pride.

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Poland's New Law
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel recalled their top diplomat in Poland as a result of the new law just passed in
Poland, which sets a 30-year limit on the ability to reclaim property.
The law, in essence, prevents any Jewish claim to property stolen from Jewish victims of the Holocaust.

There is no doubt that this law is anti-Jewish. It nullifies any chance of families or of victims themselves from getting any satisfaction on claims they make for their stolen property – many of which have been dragging through the Polish court system for decades.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is outraged. The Israeli prime minister described this new Polish law as: "a shameful decision and disgraceful contempt for the memory of the Holocaust … Poland has chosen to continue harming those who have lost everything.”

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid instructed Israel's top diplomat in Warsaw, the charge d'affaires, to return home immediately for an indefinite period. And the new Israeli ambassador to Poland, who was scheduled to leave for Warsaw, will remain in Israel.

Upon hearing of the passage of this law Lapid said: "Poland today approved - not for the first time - an immoral, antisemitic law."

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Israeli Born in Dubai
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 14, 2021
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History is made in many ways.

The first Israeli child to be born in Dubai is history.

Ilan Sztulman, the head of Israel’s diplomatic mission in Dubai, and his wife Jackie are the proud parents of a newborn baby girl, born in Dubai.

The baby, named Maya, was born in Dubai’s Mediclinic Hospital, is their fifth child.
Giving the birth another reason to be entered into history books is that baby Maya was born on the first anniversary of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE.

Proud Papa Sztulman marked the occasion saying: "Maya is the first Israeli citizen to be born on Dubai soil. We are especially delighted by the symbolic timing of her birth.”

He continued: "There are many new Israeli owned businesses here and now we have an Israeli baby, born to a diplomat. When we issue her passport here in Dubai, we will be doubly excited because it will be the first Israeli passport issued here.”

Many locals came to congratulate Sztulman. Even the chief of police came to say Mazel Tov.

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid sent his congratulations over Twitter tweeting: "Maya is the first Israeli baby born in Dubai! Congratulations to Ilan Sztulman, head of mission and his wife Jackie. The entire ministry is raising our glasses in a toast".
L’Chaim! And Mazal Tov!

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Urging Abbas to Join
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 13, 2021
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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is being urged to address the new Israeli government – and address it in a serious way.

Both the United States and England have pointed out that if Abbas has any hope (or any real desire) or moving toward Palestinian statehood and normalcy, he must engage with Israel’s new leaders.

These messages from the United States and England have not simply been sent floating out there for Abbas to receive, they have been personally hand delivered.
Richard Moore, head of Britain’s MI-6, which is their equivalent of the CIA, went to Ramallah to meet with Abbas. That visit was followed by a visit from William Burns who also travelled to Ramallah. The CIA director paid his visit to Abbas while he was in Israel for talks about the region.

Topics under discussion with Abbas included Iran and their influence in the region.

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HRW Says Palestinians did War Crimes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Human Rights Watch announced that during the recent war between Israel and Hamas, Gazans committed war crimes.

The group was referring to the deadly rockets fired into Israel by Palestinians, rockets that led to the deaths of 12 Israeli and injury to tens of others.

The human rights group also pointed out that rockets that misfired or that fell short of their intended targets within Israel, also killed or wounded "an undetermined number of Palestinians in Gaza". At least seven Palestinian civilians were reported killed by their rockets.

This is newsworthy.

Traditionally Human Rights Watch has been extremely critical of Israel and extremely wary of saying anything negative against Palestinians.

Because they were so biased, their credibility was in serious question.

Have they finally seen the light of truthful reporting – it is way too soon to tell.


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Robots for Bees In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 11, 2021
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Bees are not just our source of honey. Bees are, more importantly, an essential part of the ecosystem, and the bee population is becoming rare. Without bees, the ecosystem will break down.

Bees are now at risk because of very aggressive farming methods and because they are being poisoned by pesticides.

An Israeli startup named Beewise is helping save the bees and save the world.
They are using a robot. The robot makes hives, stacks the honeycombs using robot arms and inspects the honeycombs for disease and pesticides. It also issues real time reports on anything determined to be threatening to the bee colonies.

This robot can house 24 colonies – that’s about 2 million bees. It is about the size of cargo container.

The developers od Beewise hope to have 100 of these systems operating in the United States and Israel.

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Found an Ancient Coin
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 10, 2021
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Every tourist to Israel and every person living in Israel dreams of finding a valuable piece of history while walking or digging through the country’s many excavation sites.

Of course, the likelihood of discovering a major find is next to nil. Bones and burnt wood and broken shards of pottery are often unearthed, but actually finding something significant in a site that has already been excavated and is open to tourists is practically unheard of.

But sometimes, dreams do come true.

The Yizhaki family was playing a game in the excavated mikvah in the Karazim National Park in Israel when one of the girls spotted a coin on the ground. As everyone is instructed to do, she handed the coin over to the park staff.
It was bronze and it is 1500 years old.

According to Dekel Segev, director of the Korazim National Park, this ancient bronze coin is estimated to date to the Talmudic period between the fourth and fifth centuries which is, he explains, “ … the peak period of the Jewish village in Korazim”.

Korazim, which is mentioned in the Christian Bible, is located in the Galilee between Safed and Tiberias. It is home to several impressive remains including a beautiful synagogue and a mikvah, both constructed with stunning pillars.

The coin is a natural treasure and it would have been illegal to keep the coin. It is a national treasure. In all probability, the family will be awarded a public honor for finding this remnant of archaeological history.

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Israel's Vaccinates Elderly
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has mandated that people over 60 get a third booster against the corona virus.

The Health Ministry reported that 295,585 Israelis over the age of 60 received COVID booster vaccines in the first five days of the program. That accounts for nearly 20% of that age group.

There is no scientific evidence that the third dose will help. It certainly will not hurt.

Interestingly, however, the World Health Organization has asked for a moratorium on the third dose. Their rationale is that the entire world should get a first dose of vaccine before some get a third.

This is not a humanitarian gesture. It is a clear attack against Israel. Israel is the only country in the world that has begun administering a third dose of the COVID vaccine.

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Israel to Help Greece w Fires
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Greece and Turkey are confronting raging, out of control, fires.

Israel has a great deal of experience fighting fires. Israelis use computers and models to fight and plot and fight fires. They offered to help Turkey and Greece.
Turkey rejected their help. Greece accepted.

A delegation of 16 Israeli firefighters will travel to Greece to assist in the fight against the severe wildfires ravaging the country.

Thousands of people fled their homes on the outskirts of Athens. Hundreds were evacuated by boat from the nearby island of Evia.

The wildfires are fueled by strong winds and searing temperatures.

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Israel Unveils Iranian Master Planners
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There has been an increase in tension between the Iran and the West.

Iran attacked an Israeli-leased and managed ship sitting off the coast of Oman and two people were killed. One was British. One was Romanian. The ship, named Mercer Street, is registered in Liberia and the company that runs the ship is registered in England. The actual ship is owned by Japan.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz unveiled the identity of an Iranian commander responsible for the deadly strike on the tanker.

Briefing the ambassadors of countries on the UN Security Council, Gantz and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid named Saeed Ara Jani — the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) UAV Command — and claimed that he was directly involved in the attack on the Mercer Street tanker that killed the two crewmen.

Gantz said: "The person directly responsible for these actions is Saeed Ara Jani, whose name I am revealing for the first time. Ara Jani is the main operator of the Revolutionary Guards' UAV apparatus which attacked the Mercer Street. He provides the equipment, training, programs and is responsible for many terrorist acts in the region."

Revealing the identity of the commander lets Iran know that there is a target on their back.

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PA Banks
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Banks in the Palestinian Authority have decided not to be the conduit for the agreement that allows for to Qatari money to be distributed to Gaza. The banks fear that their cooperation would expose them to legal actions on the grounds of supporting and funding terrorism.

International laws are very strict about banking and the support of terror.

According to “the Memorandum of Understanding between the State of Palestine through the Ministry of Social Development and the Qatari Foreign Ministry through the Gaza Rehabilitation Committee,” the PA has agreed to transfer Qatari funds through banks subject to the supervision of the Palestinian Monetary Fund according to a list of names compiled by the Qatari side.

The transfers will take place using ATM cards bearing the bank’s logo and will include assistance to 100,000 beneficiaries from poor families as well as 27,695 other beneficiaries, most of whom are Hamas officials.

After the funds are transferred to the Palestinian banks, the PA will issue magnetic cards that will be recharged each month with $100 and these will be handed over to the poor families in the Gaza Strip.

All this will happen only after banks that agree to participate in the plan are found. Right now, there is a serious fear of an international backlash against Palestinian banks.

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Budget Includes Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


One of the results of the new Israeli government is that the Israeli Arab community now sits in the government. And that means that they have power -- economic power.

And so, the new budget has an allocation of 29.5 billion shekel directed toward Israeli minorities. 29.5 billion shekel is equivalent to about $9.18 billion.

21.5 billion is part of a 5 year plan for the Arab sector. 3 billion NIS will be directed to Druze and Circassian minorities. The Bedouin population will receive 5 billion NIS.
This is a major step toward equalization. Equalization that is long overdue.

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Turkey Says No To Israel 's Help
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Horrific fires are burning through the southern coastal region of Turkey.

According to the Israeli Embassy in Ankara, Israel offered to help fight the fires -- but Turkish officials refused their offer.

According to Turkish officials, the "situation is under control".

The Israeli embassy has indicated that their offer of assistance still stands.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government seem poorly prepared to fight these fires. Their poor response to the horrific fires decimating a wide swath of their country is inexplicable.

There has been a great deal of tension between Turkey and Israel. Israel puts all bygones aside to help save lives - but Turkey still does not want their help.


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COVID In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s COVID infection rate continues to climb. The government is being forced to make difficult decisions.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told the public that if daily coronavirus infection rates do not drop, they should prepare for another lockdown. This lockdown, Israel’s fourth, should it happen, would be enforced next month, during the Jewish High Holidays.

Gantz explained his prediction to the coronavirus cabinet. He explained that a lockdown during the High Holidays would cause less economic hardship to Israelis than previous lockdowns because so little happens economically during this time of year.

Israel is aggressively pushing more vaccinations and has begun to administer a third booster to everyone over 60 years of age.

Israel does not stand alone in this uptick of Covid numbers, they are just very open about it. The Delta variant is wreaking havoc on the world.


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US Returning Artifacts to Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Even today “spoils of war” are a reality. Looting is as wrong today as it has been for centuries - especially when national treasures are the stolen loot.

During the Colonial Period the British were notorious looters. The British Museum is filled with the stolen artifacts. The head of a sculpture, for example, is on display in the museum while the rest of the statue’s body stands in situ.

In 2003, during the US operation in Iraq to oust Sadaam Hussein, tens of thousands of archeological artifacts were looted.

The United States is now gathering those Iraqi national treasures and will return more than 17,000 ancient artifacts looted and smuggled out of Iraq.

The most valuable of all the items is a 3,500-year-old clay tablet bearing part of the Epic of Gilgamesh. Gilgamesh is the Babylonia creation story, it is their equivalent of the biblical story of Genesis.

Countless national treasures of Iraq, archeological finds and artifacts, were poached or – more often, destroyed by ISIS. Thrown to the ground and smashed into pieces. They destroyed more than the United States took. ISIS controlled a third of Iraq between the years 2014 and 2017, before they were defeated by Iraqi and international forces.

U.S. authorities are working diligently to recover the artifacts. They are literally seizing them from dealers and museums in the United States. And Iraq is grateful.

As Iraqi Culture Minister Hassan Nadhim told Reuters: "The U.S. government seized some of the artifacts and sent them to the (Iraqi) embassy. The Gilgamesh tablet, the important one, will be returned to Iraq in the next month after legal procedures are finalized".

It is never too late to right a wrong.

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Israel at the Olympics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel loves sports and Israelis love the Olympics. They also love to win and to get medals. What country doesn’t?

Hearing the Hatikvah, Israel’s national anthem, being played while an Israeli stands on the winner podium makes every Israeli’s chest swell with pride.

It almost makes it feel as if all the bad press Israel is bombarded with is worth it.
Especially when Israel has just won a gold.
Artem Dolgopyat won the gold medal in artistic gymnastics, the floor exercise. The win was impressive. Artem was impressive.

Israel’s president called Israel’s star athlete and congratulated him. President Herzog said: "We are all very excited and I congratulate you. We are all looking forward to seeing you in Jerusalem soon. You are a source of pride to many children who will surely follow in your footsteps.”

Dolgopyat told Herzog that he did it all "for the people of Israel" and expressed his happiness that "all of our nation watched me [during the final]."

In his call to Artem after the win, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said: "You made history here. We stopped the cabinet meeting in the middle to congratulate you for bringing us this great news".

“On behalf of the government of Israel and on behalf of the citizens of Israel - we are all proud of you and look forward to your return to Israel for the celebrations”.
Bennett and the members of his cabinet had interrupted their weekly Sunday morning cabinet meeting to watch the floor performance.

This is the second gold medal for Israel in the history of their participation in the Olympic Games.

In Israel, people disagree over politics but they are united in their national pride.

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Israel Vaccinating 60 & Older
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is beginning a third round of vaccinations for people over 60. The decision to vaccinate was made in order to avoid a fourth country-wide lockdown.

In a televised press conference Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Israelis :
“Our goal is to keep the State of Israel open … But we must understand that there is a race between the vaccine campaign and the pandemic. We must make sure the vaccinations rate beats the pandemic's spread. We all have the shared obligation to protect one another. Go get vaccinated!"

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, who turns 61 in September, was the first Israeli to receive the booster shot as part of the campaign.
Bennett said that he will accompany his 78-year-old mother Myrna when she gets her jab.

The prime minister explained the efficacy of the third dose saying: "Within a few days of receiving the third dose, [the vaccine] comes into effect and provides protection. I urge seniors who have been vaccinated with the second dose — go get vaccinated with the third dose. It will protect you from serious illness and death."

The essential point he was making is that you may get sick, but with the vaccine you are not going to die. And that is what is important.

If the campaign works as Israel is hoping, the country will not need to shut down. And that means the economy can continue to rebuild itself.

To answer the most asked question, tourism will not spring back up. Open borders are not immediately on the agenda.

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Iran Attacks an Israeli Ship
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

An oil tanker flying a Liberian flag that was a part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s maritime group named Zodiac was attacked just north of the Omani island of Masirah. That puts it 185 miles from Muscat, the capital of Oman.

The ship is actually Japanese owned, leased by Zodiac and registered in Liberia.
Although owned by Ofer, an Israeli, Zodiac is a British based and registered company.

Two crewmembers were killed in the attack - one British and one Romanian.

This attack has international implications. It was perpetrated by a drone strike and Israel asserts, with absolute certainty, that the attacker was Iran.

In an official statement, the management of Zodiac Maritimecalled the attack piracy.

The statement read: “At the time of the incident the vessel was in the northern
Indian Ocean, traveling from Dar es Salaam to Fujairah with no cargo onboard.” In other words, the ship was making its way from a port in Tanzania to a port in the United Arab Emirates.

Israel will certainly respond to this attack. Because there were deaths and one of the crew members killed was British, England may join Israel in the response.

We will watch and see.

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New Policy for Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

We need a new policy toward Iran.

The West world, especially the United States and Israel, need to change their attitude and realize what Iran is really doing.

Historically, radical regimes like Iran have perceived reality differently than the West. And because of that perception, they invest in their country very differently than does the West.

In Iran’s case, despite terrible economic and internal crisis after crisis, Iranian leadership is channeling huge amounts of money not into their own country, but into aggressive actions in Syria. They’re doing this in an effort to strike at Israel and the US.

It is counterintuitive when it comes to Western logic, but to Iran it makes sense.

Iranian leadership is trying to deflect attention from internal crises and place blame on the United States and Israel for their problems. Iran is solving problems internally by attacking what they perceive to be the root causes - the United States and Israel, which are on the outside.

The US and Israel needs to focus and push back hard against Iran. The entire region and Iran will be better off when internal issues are addressed.
Iran needs to be forced back and to face inward.

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Israel Helps Dom Rep w a Med Test
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

We do not dedicate enough time to good news – especially good news about the great contributions Israel has made to the world.

Here is a one example. Israeli technology is being used in the Dominican Republic to diagnose early stages of cervical cancer. This test will save the lives of many of the women who are diagnosed early.

The name of the Israeli company that developed this technology is MobileODT and they launched a nationwide program testing 50,000 women.

The Artificial Intelligence-based kit allows non-specialists to diagnose abnormal cervical findings in their early stages using an ordinary smartphone. The patient is then matched with adequate preventive treatment.

The test is checked through the phone. 18,000 of those women who were tested were of very modest means and early detection would both save their lives and cut the cost of treatment exponentially.

Danny Biran, Israel’s ambassador to the Dominican Republic, noted that "Israeli technology can reach anywhere in the world, make essential health services accessible to everyone and present fast results and above all — save lives.”

He said, "We will continue to work on a variety of issues in the field of groundbreaking and life-changing Israeli technologies together with Israel's great friend, the Dominican Republic."

The world could use more good news of this sort.

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UAE Israel Oil Deal on Hold
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Affairs froze a deal with the UAE.

The ministry explained their actions saying that the standards Israel requested to protect the environment were not met by the UAE and until they are, the deal is frozen.

The deal was that the UAE would ship oil, by tanker, to the port of Eilat. From Eilat, a pipeline would take the oil inland to the port in Ashkelon where it would be shipped to Europe.

The pipeline was called the Med-Red Land Bridge, and it was a product of a joint Emirati-Israel company called Med-Red Land Bridge LTD.

Work on the pipeline has not yet begun, so the oil would have been trucked.
Details and safety aspects of the pipeline have not been made public. Therefore, the courts found that the safety of the environment was not guaranteed – and the deal was frozen.

This may push the push the parties to act quickly and responsibly.

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Russia to Supply Syria to Fight Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Russia is convinced that the new US administration disapproves of Israel’s bombing in Syria. And that opens the door for Russia to arm Syria to protect itself from Israel.

It appears, through certain Arabic press sources in London, that Russia wants to stop Israel’s bombing of Syria terror targets. To that end, Russia will supply Syria with better surface-to-air-missile systems.

The anonymously sourced report by the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat cited a “well-informed” Russian official saying that the Kremlin has “run out of patience” with Israeli air raids in Syria.

Israel’s objectives are clear - to prevent Iran from gaining a permanent military foothold on its doorstep and stop them from heavily arming Hezbollah.

Russia, a key supporter of the Assad regime, has built a strong military presence in Syria.

Israel needs to step in and diplomatically stop this and the way to do that is by going directly to the top – to Putin.

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Israel Hits Keys Players In Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Reports that an Israeli air strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander and a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander have spread throughout Arabic and Iranian news.

We do know that a Hezbollah commander and commander in the Iranian-backed Liwa Fatemiyoun militia were both killed recently. The details of their deaths remain unclear as of Saturday night.

The Saudi news outlet Al-Arabiya reported that the two died in Syria.

Hezbollah-affiliated media reported on Saturday that the Hezbollah commander Imad al-Amin, from Deir Kifa in southern Lebanon, was killed while “carrying out his jihad duty,” without providing further details.

Iranian media announced on Saturday as well, that Ahmed Qureshi, a commander in the Liwa Fatemiyoun militia, died due to wounds he suffered while fighting in Syria.

These multiple reports seem to be reliable.

One of Israel’s objectives is to cut off the heads of the snakes. Israel’s intention is to eliminate terrorist leadership.

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Gaza Getting Hot
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Things have been relatively calm on the Israeli border with Gaza. Relatively calm, not completely calm.

Gaza has not returned to the once-daily routine of launching attacks against Israel.
There had been, however, balloon-fire bombs tossed into Israel. These were met with quick Israeli responses.

But now, over the past few days, Gaza has increased intensity in its balloon fire-bombs and they have successfully caused at least three serious fires.

On one of the balloons a message was scrawled. It read: “time is running out”.
Israel is again responding, hitting what they believe to be the sites from which the balloon fire-bombs are both launched and created.

Hamas has not yet learned their lesson. Or maybe they are not interested in learning.

There may very well be an escalation and another mini-war around the corner.


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Ben & Jerry's
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream is owned by a gargantuan company called Unilever. The company is headquartered in England.

Unilever bought the ice cream company in 2000 and by some quirk, they allowed Ben & Jerry’s to maintain its own independent board – a special board to deal with social issues.

That board decided to stop selling ice cream to Israelis living in the West Bank, also known as Judea and Samaria. With that decision, Ben and Jerry’s, and by extension Unilever, is subscribing to the BDS boycott. BDS stands for Boycott Divestment and Sanctions Against Israel, not other countries, just Israel.

Boycotts are illegal in the United States and almost 35 states have enacted laws preventing states from doing business, making investments or assisting companies that boycott Israel.

Here is one example of those laws, from Illinois, passed in 2015. The language is very simple and very clear and it reads: “‘Boycott Israel’ means engaging in actions that are politically motivated and are intended to penalize, inflict economic harm on, or otherwise limit commercial relations with the State of Israel or companies based in the State of Israel or in territories controlled by the State of Israel.”
That is the exact definition of the decision made by Ben and Jerry’s.

Ben & Jerry’s and Unilever should pay the price for their mistake. Texas and Florida are already investigating how they can divest from Unilever and do it ASAP.

That is how you answer BDS.

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Moderna to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

From the start, Pfizer was the only vaccine given to Israelis. That is no longer the case.

Israel has 200,000 Moderna vaccines in storage. And Moderna will now be the vaccines administered to Israelis 18 years old and under.

Moderna has already been administered to 120,000 Palestinian workers in the Jewish State.

One of the reasons for the switch is that the Pfizer vaccine that Israel has in storage is about to hit its expiration date of July 31st.

Israel sold 700,000 of those Pfizer vaccines to South Korea. The South Koreans were well aware of the expiration date and needed vaccines so badly and so immediately that, for them it was a deal worth making.

100,000 new Pfizer vaccines are scheduled to arrive in Israel on August 1st.
The overwhelming majority of the country is already double vaccinated.

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Water Shortage in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A water shortage in the Middle East, an arid, desert land, can lead to a very dangerous situation.

And this summer, Iran has been suffering from exactly that, a water shortage.

Iranians have taken to the streets to protest. They are protesting across cities and towns in Iran, making clear to Iranian leadership that they want the government to solve this problem.

During one protest in the city of Mahar shots were fired. A police officer was killed and a civilian was wounded, shot in the leg. This incident was reported in the official state media outlet IRNA.

It was the third shooting death that has occurred at protests calling on the Iranian government to get Iran more fresh water.


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70 yrs ago Jordan King Assassinated
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It was a Friday. The date was July 20, 1951 and King Abdullah of Jordan was visiting Jerusalem. He stood on the steps of the Muslim Mosque of al Aqsa, what Jews called the Temple Mount. The King of Jordan had come to Jerusalem to speak to leaders of Israel.
But it was not to be.

Seventy years ago, while standing on those steps, in front of his grandson who would later become King Hussein, King Abdullah of Jordan was assassinated.

The assassin was a Palestinian named Mustafa Shukri Ashshu. He was a follower of the ex-Mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husseini. The Haj Amin was anti anything Jewish. So anti that he forged a relationship with Adolf Hitler and was even hosted by him.

The Haj Amin and King Abdullah were arch enemies.
The ex-mufti supported the establishment of a Palestinian state. Abdullah annexed the West Bank. That act alone prevented the creation of a Palestinian state.

It was a season for assassinations. Just days before Abdullah’s assassination on the steps in Jerusalem, Riad al Sohl, the first prime minister of Lebanon, was assassinated in Jordan. Ali Razmara, prime minister of Iran, and Abdul Hamid Zanganeh, former education minister of Iran, had been assassinated days before.

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US Drones-Strike Iranian Militia
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States used a drone to attack an Iranian backed militia truck which was, most probably, carrying weapons and ammunition along the Syrian/Iraqi border.

The attack was reported in Iraqi news and by human rights observers in Syria.

There are several hundred US forces on the Syrian/Iraqi border. Their mission is to fight terrorism.

US troops, especially US bases, have recently come under attack by Iranian backed Syrian fighters. The attacks came by way of drones.

And so the United States has begun to counter attack. They are targeting the group known as Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada.

According to reports, the US drone first shot a warning shot in the direction of the truck and the driver ran away. Then came a second shot that destroyed the truck.

As is the case in almost every incident, there are other reports that the driver was killed and that instead of weapons, and ammo the truck was carrying food.

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Israel Enforcing COVID Rules
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has begun a new method of tracking people who are supposed to be in quarantine because of COVID.

The person in question will receive a text message and must respond by sending a photo in a return text message. The police will use that response to triangulate location and make certain that people are, indeed, where they are supposed to be.

If you do not respond to the text message, the police will come by and pay a personal visit.

Another change Israel has made is that indoor masking is now, once again, required. Weddings are included. This new rule applies to everyone, even double vaccinated Israelis.

Violators will be fined 5000 NIS.

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US Attacks Iranian Militia
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Beitar Yerushalim, an internationally competitive soccer team, was to host Barcelona in a scrimmage match leading up to the World Cup which is known around the world as the Mondial.

Barcelona asked for a change of venue.

They did not want to play in Beitar’s home city - Jerusalem. They thought that playing in Jerusalem would give credence to the Israeli occupation of the city.
Barcelona wanted to play elsewhere – preferably in Tel Aviv.
Instead of collapsing under international pressure, Beitar’s owner, Moshe Hogeg, simply cancelled the match.

Hogeg was stunned that Barcelona played a “political card” - a very harsh political card, but Hogeg and Beitar would not be pressured.

This is a point of principle.

Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Jerusalem is not an occupied city. If there were to be any discussion at all, it would be about East Jerusalem, not about West Jerusalem.

Barcelona was way out of line.

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Jordan Needs Vaccines
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States has just sent 500,000 Pfizer anti-COVID vaccines to Jordan.

The delivery of these vaccines is not part of the World Health Organization/ UN COVAX program that is charged with delivering vaccines to the world.

Jordan is suffering. Jordanians cannot wait for all the red tape to be cleared, they cannot wait for the bureaucratic machine to decide to ship them vaccines. They need those vaccines now.

There are about 10 million people in Jordan and their median age is 23.8. Given these numbers there are about 2 million Jordanians at risk.

These half million Pfizer COVID vaccines will provide for 25% of those Jordanians in need. The United States is enabling Jordan to take an important step forward in protecting those most at risk in the Kingdom.


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Iran Enriching Uranium
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

If you had any doubt that Iran was going to limit their uranium enrichment, the outgoing president of Iran removed all doubts. Rather than limit uranium enrichment, Iran will do exactly the opposite.

President Hassan Rouhani told his cabinet that "Iran's Atomic Energy Organization can enrich uranium by 20% and 60% and if one day our reactor needs it, it can enrich uranium to 90% purity.”

All this was reported in Mehr media, an official Iranian new outlet.

The percentages Rouhani spoke of are way above the 3.67% agreed upon in the famous nuke deal and the 20% permitted in research.

Iran is planning to move into nuclear technology. That is obvious. There is no way that they will walk back their enrichment numbers. Obtaining and then providing nuclear weapons to others is important to Iran.

Iran will continue to enrich uranium and continue their march toward nuclear weapons.

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Plans to Attack Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Hebrew media lit up over preliminary discussions on the budget.

The budget line that drew everyone’s attention was a request by the IDF for billions of shekel to be used to plan for and defend Israel against Iran.

Billions of shekel is quite a lot of money. The obvious question we must ask is: why was there was no allocation to deal with Iran set aside up until now? It’s no secret that Iran is a large and looming threat.

It appears that until this moment, until this budget discussion, Israel has not been totally prepared to strike and defend itself from Iran.

I find that frightening.

To clarify, there always were and there continues to be plans for old style attacks against Iran - especially assassinating nuclear scientists and sabotaging nuclear labs and centers. And we cannot forget that Israel smuggled out the Iranian nuclear archives. But as remarkable and as successful as smuggling that archive was – it is still old school.

Israel needs new school solutions. Kudos to the IDF for bringing this pressing need to the forefront of budget discussions.

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Israel Holds Terror Money from PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is freezing 597 million NIS of monies that are supposed to be transferred to the Palestinians. 597 million NIS is about $180 million.

The defense cabinet agreed that this was a wise and correct decision.

This is the exact amount of money - calculated by the defense cabinet – that the Palestinians paid to terrorists and to the families of terrorists now serving time in Israeli prisons.

The system has been dubbed “Pay to Slay”.

The Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, passed legislation in 2020 permitting Israel to freeze money being transferred to the Palestinian Authority that would go to terrorists. That is exactly what Israel just did.

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Israel Hacked Iran's Transit
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel – it must have been Israel, successfully hacked and brought down Iran’s rapid transit system.

The system is partly owned and operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The IRGC ownership of the transit system made it a viable, justifiable and ethical target of attack.

This is just another example of many attacks against Iran. The attacks are not isolated incidents, they are part of an orchestrated plan to hurt and even cripple Iranian leadership.

There is a downside. An attack against Iran means a response from Iran. There is always a counterattack.

Iran has attacked Israeli ships on the open seas. Iran has hacked Israeli infrastructure, like the water system. Iran has unleashed their proxy Hezbollah and Hezbollah has launched rockets and drones into Israel.

I’m expecting Iran to unleash a cyberattack against Israel within the next week.

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Israel Leaves Surfside
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli search and rescue team that came to Surfside and helped reshape and redirect the dig to more effectively discover bodies has returned to Israel. The work at Surfside is not yet complete, but the Israeli team successfully taught the Americans how to safely and effectively search for and find bodies in the aftermath of the building collapse.

The role of the Israeli team was essential to the success of the grueling and daunting task. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava thanked the Israeli battalion for their "unrelenting dedication" and presented them with an honorary "key to the county."

The team was divided into 2 sub teams and each sub team worked 12 hour shifts to find bodies.

As the Israeli team left Surfside they marched out in formation. People, family members, locals, clapped. It was a solemn clap, a sad clap of appreciation. The team marched and sang a Hebrew dirge, they sang “Ani Ma’amin”.
“Ani Ma’amin” means “I believe.” It was an extremely powerful moment.

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Israel Hacked Hams' Bitcoins
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has begun hacking and seizing Hamas’ Bitcoin accounts. The Israelis have also hacked into and seized other Hamas crypto-currency accounts.

How did they do it – how did Israel successfully hack and confiscate Hamas’ Bitcoins and other crypto-currencies? Notice I am not asking why – just how.

The US Justice Department is doing the same thing. Attempting to hack into and seize the accounts of as many terror groups as they can. So far, Israel has seized over 150 crypto-currency accounts while the US has seized over 300.

The answer as to how Israel broke into this supposedly super stealth Bitcoin system is brilliant.

While crypto accounts are nearly impenetrable, they have a weak spot. The weak point is the point of transfer. That is when the accounts, the information, the owners are easier - NOT EASY, just easier, for the white hat hacker to access.

That is where Israel entered the system and that is how they were able to seize millions and millions of terrorist assets.

Israel has frozen the accounts.

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Delta Plus Variant
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

We all know about the Delta Variant of the Coronavirus.

But have you heard of Delta Plus?

Delta Plus is a mutated form of Delta, too similar to get its own name – but still a little different.

Like Delta, Delta Plus was first discovered in India. And now a handful of cases have been found in Israel. If the Delta Variant is more contagious than the Alpha Variant, Delta Plus is even more contagious and deadly than Delta.

It is still too early to understand what is happening, but information and research about this new variant is coming out daily.

One would think that, by now, the medical community would know so much more about the Delta variant and be on top of this, but not so. The standard PCR test offered everywhere does not identify variants. The test just identifies the presence or lack the virus.

And that makes the work on understanding, tracking and determining the nature of the various variants so very difficult.

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Israel Announces Lavish Room Discovered
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Antiquities Authority has announced the discovery of a glorious and lavish set of rooms from the Roman era, adjacent to the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

The structure was built only a few decades before Rome destroyed Jerusalem and the Temple in 70CE.

The rooms were actually discovered decades ago, but they are only now being opened to the public. Now people can visit these rooms alongside other architectural finds at other sites near the Western Wall, like in the tunnels that run underground and parallel to the walls of the Temple.

The rooms, like all the digs in the tunnels next to the Wall were not “digs” per se.

Over the centuries or, more accurately, over two millennia the rooms and structures remained intact, they were never actually destroyed. They were filled in with dirt, sewage, rubble and remains from other destructions, but they survived.

That fill needed to be cleared out. And in the fill were items left over after the destruction of Jerusalem from other periods. The fill, which served to preserve the rooms, needed to be sifted and clearly identified. And that fill, those items discovered in the rooms, helps us understand what happened above ground, in the gloriously preserved and newly opened, Roman era rooms.

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Hareidi Childcare Gets Cut
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are rising along one of the Israel’s perennial fault lines.

Subsidies to Hareidi families have been cut. Specifically, subsidies for childcare.
Minister of Finance Avigdor Lieberman has chosen to change the childcare entitlement program that has been in place as far back as memory goes.

The Lieberman plan now requires fathers to work or study in a non-religious educational accredited institution for at least 24 hours a week. None of the traditional Hareidi yeshivot are accredited.

The childcare credit amounts to between NIS 900 and NIS 1,300 per child. In total, around 130,000 families benefit from the subsidies every year. The Labor and Welfare Ministry spends some NIS 1.2 billion on these benefits, approximately a third of which traditionally went to Hareidi families.

Of the Hareidi population, 53% of working age men are employed as compared to 85% of working age men from the rest of the country.

Changing the eligibility criteria for the childcare subsidy will impact the economy.
The rationale behind the subsidy was always to put children in day care, thereby freeing up mothers/wives so that they could go to work. If not for subsidies, they would have to remain at home taking care of the children.

We will see what happens now. It’s way too early to tell.


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Iran is Attacking the US
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has, for all intents and purposes, declared war on the United States in Iraq and Syria.

Over the past several weeks, US forces have been targeted by Iran’s proxies almost every day. Even the US embassy in Baghdad has been attacked.

The attacks come in the form of missile strikes and drone strikes. The drones being used are becoming more and more sophisticated. To date, thankfully, no personnel have been killed.

And now, the United States has begun to strike back.

Iran has an agenda. Iranian leadership is ratcheting up tensions in order to force US involvement – to goad the United States into conflict with their proxies. Iran wants the US to hurt – Iran wants the United States to suffer the loss US lives.
That hurt will come as events escalate.

Iran does not care about the lives of their proxies, about those who will bear the brunt of US counter strikes. Iran cares about Iran, only and exclusively.

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US Shuts Iranian Websites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States seized 36 Iranian websites. The seized the sites and they shut them down.

Why these websites? Because they were spreading lies and drawing people into their traps.

A few days later, the sites resurfaced. Just like they always do.

So the question begs asking: Is it really a good idea for the United States to remove Iranian websites. One thing for certain is that it certainly plays into the narrative that the US controls everything.

The best way to combat rhetoric is to replace it with better material - not by shutting its sources down.

Censorship is never a good idea unless a source, a website, goes over the red line that limits free speech. That red line is the direct instigation of violence.

Really evil groups use the dark web and, unfortunately, by their very nature. it is impossible to shut them down. The United States should certainly monitor those sites, and sometime even play with them and hack them.

But never take them down, never shut them down.

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Iran Hits Another Israeli Ship
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The internet lit up with reports that Iran attacked an Israeli vessel in the Indian Ocean. The vessel was enroute from Jeddah to the UAE.
Israeli news N12 broadcast the story.

According to the N12 report, the crew was not hurt and the ship was not badly damaged. They cited unnamed sources within Israel's defense establishment for this information.

Lebanese, pro-Iranian, TV channel Al Mayadeen had also reported that the ship was attacked in the Indian Ocean.

This is a big story. It is very difficult to police and to protect the high seas.


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Iran Electric Blackouts
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Widespread electrical blackouts are crippling Iran.
The heat is excessive, air conditioners are running round the clock, people are staying indoors and they are one their computers.

This story was first covered by Iran International, a TV and web media outlet out of London. The outlet is trying to present balanced, insightful coverage of Iran.
Large parts of the Iranian capital Tehran and parts of Karaj, a city west of Tehran, as well as other, smaller, cities were plunged into darkness. Iranian leaders are announcing that there will be more blackouts.

But this widespread blackout, which started at 11:00 pm Saturday night, was not part of the scheduled power cuts that Iran has experienced in recent months due to insufficient electricity generation and rising demand. In some parts of Tehran the power outage continued until 5 am Sunday.

An unexpected and long power cut in mid-summer high temperatures could create discomfort in apartments where air conditioning is essential, as well as unforeseen problems in hospitals. The scheduled power cut was supposed to take place only between 8-10 pm on Saturday.

Iran’s power consumption this summer has topped 60,000 megawatts per day. That is more than a ten percent increase in power consumption compared to last year. Meanwhile, electricity generation in Iran has remained the same at 50,000-56,000 megawatts.

None of this bodes well for the people of Iran.

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Israel Arrests Arrivals from Russia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

24 Israelis were arrested in Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport.

They weren’t arrested for drug trafficking and they weren’t arrested for smuggling.

They were arrested for buying tickets and almost boarding a plane for Russia.
40 other Israelis were fined 5000 NIS each, that’s approximately $2,000, for getting off a plane from Russia and trying to enter Israel.

Russia is a red state. Covid is rampant. It is forbidden for Israelis to come or go without special permission from the Exceptions Committee.

It might sound like Israel is becoming a police state. But the truth us that Israel is a country that takes the life and death of its citizens seriously.

No travel means no travel.

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Israel Helps Surfside
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The head of the IDF search and rescue team is Colonel Gidon Vach.

Vach spoke to a US media outlet and explained what the Israeli team is doing in Surfside and the value added by having Israelis on the ground at the site of The Champlain South building collapse.

Colonel Vach has been working search and rescue missions for more than 20 years. When speaking of the Surfside rescue operation he said: "It's one of the most difficult and complicated situations that I've ever seen."

He said that while one should never lose hope, you also have to be honest and there is “no chance” for finding survivors.

Vach described the 3-D model of The Champlain that Israel created even before arriving on the scene. He explained that the team is looking for bedrooms because people were asleep at the time of the collapse.

He also explained that the Israeli team replicated the collapse to determine how the building fell and then he said: "Our purpose is to get the first responder to understand, where exactly is he digging?"

That’s important. This way rescuers do not waste time and energy digging and removing rubble. Instead, they can target their dig so as to find people and bodies.

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Fire Balloons
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

They are called incendiary balloons. In other words, the balloons sent over from Gaza ignite and cause fires in Israel.

These fires cause 10’s of millions of dollars of damage. They destroy crops and fields and endanger farming communities.

The balloons bombs are very low tech – in fact, they cost less than a dollar each to make. They are one of the least expensive weapons in the Middle East today. An exacto knife is more expensive.

On May 21 the latest conflict between Gaza and Israel ended. Both sides agreed a cease fire. And yet, these incendiary balloons are being launched with more and more frequency.

If they do not end, if the balloons do not stop, Israel will respond. This is not a prediction - it is an absolute inevitability.

Israel will strike Gaza from the air and hit the labs the make the balloons. Israel will target the leaders of the groups launching the balloons. They will shoot the people who are launching the balloons as they are being launched.

This is an absolute fact. Hamas must know this. And so, I ask: why does Hamas insist on continuing to launch fire balloons into Israel?

The answer is that Hamas has a need to always attack Israel. They simply cannot stop.

It is a real life version of the Aesop fable about the “Scorpion and the Frog”.

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Fire Balloons
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

They are called incendiary balloons. In other words, the balloons sent over from Gaza ignite and cause fires in Israel.

These fires cause 10’s of millions of dollars of damage. They destroy crops and fields and endanger farming communities.

The balloons bombs are very low tech – in fact, they cost less than a dollar each to make. They are one of the least expensive weapons in the Middle East today. An exacto knife is more expensive.

On May 21 the latest conflict between Gaza and Israel ended. Both sides agreed a cease fire. And yet, these incendiary balloons are being launched with more and more frequency.

If they do not end, if the balloons do not stop, Israel will respond. This is not a prediction - it is an absolute inevitability.

Israel will strike Gaza from the air and hit the labs the make the balloons. Israel will target the leaders of the groups launching the balloons. They will shoot the people who are launching the balloons as they are being launched.

This is an absolute fact. Hamas must know this. And so, I ask: why does Hamas insist on continuing to launch fire balloons into Israel?

The answer is that Hamas has a need to always attack Israel. They simply cannot stop.

It is a real life version of the Aesop fable about the “Scorpion and the Frog”.

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Israel Permits Gas in to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel permitted the entry into Gaza of fuel trucks. The trucks were permitted entry in order to fill Gaza’s electrical stations which had not been producing electricity. They had gone dark..

The fuel is paid for by Qatar.

Ironically, permission was granted the same day that Israel received a formal request from Gaza to permit 10 trucks of fuel entry. Israel had made the decision before the request even came through.

Israel has also relaxed towards Gaza in other ways.

They are permitting the importing of raw material necessary for civilian purposes.
And even earlier, Israel extended the Gaza fishing zone another 6 nautical miles permitting Gazan fishing to extend 9 nautical miles into the Mediterranean Sea.

Qatar is asking that Israel permit their monetary aid be transferred into Gaza. That has yet to happen. It is still unclear where the money will go and how it will be supervised.

In daily meetings Egypt and Israel discuss the “hows” of how to make certain the money goes to the proper places and not to Hamas or to Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

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US Strikes Iran in Syria & Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States has carried out airstrikes against Iranian supported forces in Iraq and Syria.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the attacks were approved by President Biden who also, he said: “directed further military action to disrupt and deter” attacks on U.S. facilities and personnel in Iraq.

According to the official US statement: “We are in Iraq at the invitation of the Government of Iraq for the sole purpose of assisting the Iraqi Security Forces in their efforts to defeat ISIS … The United States took necessary, appropriate, and deliberate action designed to limit the risk of escalation - but also to send a clear and unambiguous deterrent message.”

The official Iraq military response condemned the United States.

The Iraqi condemnation was to be expected. What was not expected was the US strike.

Over the last few months Iranian proxies have been aggressively attacking US personnel in the region using drones. This United States needed to respond, and this was the best response.

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Israel & US Must Work Together
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met with his US counterpart Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Vienna.

Lapid indicated that Israel had made a serious mistake by alienating Democrats in the United States. Both Lapid and new Israeli Prime Minister Bennet are committed to improving and even strengthening the relationship between the United States and Israel, a relationship which is so important that it should be above US party politics.

Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid also made it clear that Israel is unhappy with the United States for advances being made toward Iran in resurrecting the 2015 Nuke Deal.

Before the meeting began Lapid said: "Israel has some serious reservations about the Iran nuclear deal that is being put together in Vienna. We believe the way to discuss those disagreements is through direct and professional conversations, not in press conferences."


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Israeli Baseball & the Olympic
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States will face one another in baseball in their opening games at the 2021 Olympic Games in Japan.

Their face-off will be a double elimination which means that you are allowed to lose one game and still compete in the Games.

Israel's baseball team is expected to include former major leaguers Ian Kinsler and Danny Valencia. Current Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer is also said to have joined the team.

The fate of baseball in the Olympics has been rocky.

Baseball was dropped from the Olympics after the 2008 Games. It has been brought back this year – but only as a limited run. In the 2024 Paris Games baseball will be dropped again. This sport is expected to be played, once again, when the Olympic Games are hosted in Los Angeles in 2028.

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Honduras Opens Jerusalem Embassy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Embassy of Honduras has opened in Jerusalem.
Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez came to Jerusalem to be part of the celebration.

At the opening, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said: "This is another demonstration of the deep friendship and deep connection between the two countries."

Joining the president were a great many of his ministers and aides.

The Honduran foreign minister was there to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid. The MOU contained the decision by the two countries to collaborate in the fields of agriculture, water resources management, health, education and information sharing.

This is another example of Israel’s improving foreign relations. Israel continues to raise its status in the world. The decision by the United States to recognize Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel and to move its own embassy there has been anything but an impediment for other countries.


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Bennett is Not Soft
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

For anyone worried that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett went soft by joining the coalition that made him prime minister – you can put that worry aside.

In addition to bombing Gaza after Hamas sent balloons which caused wildfires and tremendous destruction within Israel, the new prime minister also gave the order for the recent attack by the Mossad on Iran’s centrifuge factories.

Of course, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied the Iranian attack.

Bennett also approved new settlement construction in Elkana, Mishor Adumim, and Yitzar. The new construction in these Jewish settlements on the West Bank is the first such move okayed by the government of the new prime minister.

The subcommittee on settlement in the Civil Administration actually made the decision to build and sent it on to the prime minister for approval. The committee, which normally convenes every three months, had not met since January.

Prime Minister Bennett has been kept very busy his first days in office.

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Russia Shoots @ UK
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A Russian naval ship shot at a British naval ship in the Black Sea. The Russians also scrambled a jet and launched several bombs toward the British ship. The boat, called the HMS Defender, is a destroyer ship.

Russia explained their action by saying that The Defender crossed into Russian waters. The British deny the claim. The Russians countered saying that the British ship was as far as 2 miles into Russian waters.

Britain went so far as to deny everything - even that Russia shot at them.

According to the UK Ministry of Defense: “No warning shots have been fired at HMS Defender. The Royal Navy ship is conducting innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters in accordance with international law.”

As usual, the Russians are flexing their muscles.

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Bitcoins in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

You get bitcoins through mining. In order to mine, you use computers – very powerful computers. These computers answer questions, solve problems and get new coins.

Turns out, Iran is a very big Bitcoin miner. And because the computers mining the bitcoins are so extremely powerful and drain huge amounts of electricity, Iran has shut down several cryptocurrency mining operations.

In fact, Iranian authorities seized 7,000 powerful computers that were being used to mine bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies.

Analytics about these currencies show that 4.5% of all bitcoin mining takes place in Iran. If this is true, it translates into $100’s of millions of unrestricted dollars.

Iranian leadership seized the 7,000 computers because they feared that the mining computers would cause power shortages throughout the country.

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Iran's Nuke Plant
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s only nuclear power plant broke down and went offline. The plant will be closed until it can be fixed. It needs part from overseas. But because of international sanctions, parts are hard for Iran to procure.

The plant, which opened in 2011 is in Bushehr. One of its jobs is to help reduce the cost of electricity across the country. As a result of the Bushehr plant going down, an electricity shortage will most certainly occur throughout Iran.

The plant is actually very old. Iran started building it in the 1970’s under the Shah.
In 1979, because of the revolution in Iran, worked stopped and was only picked up again and finally completed with the help of the Russians.

The Russians are still helping out. This plant is uranium powered and Iran gets their enriched uranium from – you guessed it, Russia.


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Bennett Warns Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has a warning for Hamas.

As we all know, Hamas controls Gaza. And Prime Minister Bennett announced to Hamas leadership that Israel’s patience “has run out” and that Israel will not tolerate “any more violence” from Gaza.

This is a theme that Bennet has been voicing for years.

Bennett had more to say to Hamas. He also told them that: "Residents of Gaza border communities are not second-class citizens, they deserve to live in peace and security.”

"Our enemies must understand the rules, we will not tolerate violence, we will not tolerate sporadic fire and we will not tolerate renegades.”

Bennett was very specific. He said that Israel "does not have any intention to harm those who have not risen against us in violence, and those who are held captive by a ruthless and violent terror organization."

Prime Minister Bennett also promised to retrieve the bodies of fallen Israeli soldiers and to bring home those Israeli still alive and held captive in Hamas’ custody.

He told Israelis: "I know that over the years you have heard a lot of promises and statements and the families only know disappointment and grief, but now it is our watch and we are committed to this."

These are easy things to say. The question is whether Bennett can act and effect change.


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PA Vaccine Story
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

UPDATE ON:
Israel offered to loan the Palestinian Authority 1.2 million Pfizer Covid vaccines.
To loan?

The PA really needs these vaccines. They really need more than 1.2 million vaccines.

The latest UN estimate, as of January 2021, has about 5.2 million Palestinians living in the West Bank. So any number of vaccines will help. Even a single dose of vaccine will help protect Palestinians.

But why lend the vaccines to the Palestinians?

Palestinians are scheduled to receive vaccines in 2022, presumably from the World Health Organization. They have, I am told, also made some progress in procuring the Chinese and the Russia vaccines.

Israel wanted to give them Pfizer vaccines. I presume that Israel would have received Pfizer vaccines in return.

But, in typical form, the Palestinians have rejected Israel’s offer.

They claim that the vaccines are too close to the expiration date. They claim that they will not have enough time to distribute the vaccine.

Truth is, the Palestinians could have had these vaccines a long time ago, but they dragged their heels in closing the deal. These are the same vaccines – with the same expiration date, that Israel is still using.

No need to worry. The vaccines will not go to waste. Israel has been approached by other countries only too anxious to receive and to distribute these Pfizer vaccines.

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Israel Lends PA Vaccines
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is loaning the Palestinian Authority 1.2 million Pfizer Covid vaccines.
Loaning?

The PA really needs these vaccines. They really need more than 1.2 million vaccines.

The latest UN estimate, as of January 2021, has about 5.2 million Palestinians living in the West Bank. So any number of vaccines will help. Even a single dose of vaccine will help protect Palestinians.

But why lend the vaccines to the Palestinians?

Palestinians are scheduled to receive vaccines in 2022, presumably from the World Health Organization. They have, I am told, also made some progress in procuring the Chinese and the Russia vaccines.

Israel is giving them Pfizer vaccines. I presume that Israel will receive Pfizer vaccines in return.

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New Poll About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I am very troubled by a just released poll about Evangelical Christians’ support for Israel. The poll was a joint effort between Americans and Israelis and was released by Tel Aviv University.

The poll studied 700 Evangelicals between the ages of 18 and 29. Participants were asked about their support for Israel. In 2018, 69% of respondents supported Israel. Today, only 33.6% support Israel.

The 2018 poll asked Evangelicals of all ages - but even taking that into account, these new results indicate a dramatic drop in support.

The poll also indicated a striking increase in support for a Palestinian state. 44.7% of respondents supported the establishment of a Palestinian state today, versus only 35% three years ago.

Evangelical Christians have traditionally been an essential ally for Israel and for the Jewish community. Israel used to spend time and energy and money developing and strengthening relations with this Christian community in the US.

It is now obvious that someone, or somehow, Israel dropped the ball with Evangelical Christians. That’s a real loss – a big loss, for Israel.

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Iran's Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has publicly announced that they have successfully enriched uranium to 60%.

The good news, if there is any, is that they did not enrich a large amount of uranium. Their announcement mentioned 6.5 kilos which is 14 pounds of highly enriched uranium.

The reality is that Iran is inching toward 90% enriched uranium - which is high weapons grade enrichment.

Iranian spokesman Ali Rabiei said that 108 kilo (230 pounds) of uranium has been enriched to 20% already.

Israel is nervous. Serious thinkers are nervous. 90% is not simply a number. Once Iran has achieved 90% uranium enrichment, they can mount it on a missile and fly it to Israel causing the deaths of thousands of Israelis.

There is good reason to worry.

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Palestinian Polls
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Polling the Palestinians has never been easy.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research is the best of Palestinian polling vehicles. Though flawed, they have managed to give us more and better insight into the opinions of Palestinians than any other polling organization.

The Center recently released a poll that shows a dramatic rise in Palestinian support of Hamas. This increased support of Hamas is certainly a direct result of the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Almost 75% of Palestinians concluded that Hamas was victorious against Israel in this last conflict.

The poll also showed that support for the Palestinian Authority and for Palestinian leader President Mahmoud Abbas plummeted dramatically.

Fatah and Abbas garnered only 14% support, while Hamas received 53% support.
This was in answer to the question which is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people.

These numbers are significant. They are also worrisome.

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Putin Denies Satellite Story
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Reuters and the Washington Post reported that Russia is about to provide Iran with advanced technology - including satellites, that would propel Iranian defense forward.

The Russian satellite system is called the Kanopus-V. It has a highly sophisticated camera with extra high resolution.

Technology of this sort would allow Iran to track numerous military targets, at a single moment, across the Middle East. The satellite will provide Iran with an ongoing monitoring of oil fields and troop movements. It will allow Iran to see military barracks in Israel and every US troop movement.

The plan is to launch the Iranian/Russian satellite, from Russia, in a few months.

If Iran were to receive this technology, it would most definitely change the face of the Middle East and help Iran become an even greater power.

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Russian Giving Iran Satellites
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The story that Russia will provide Iran with high tech satellite technology was first reported in the Washington Post and then picked up everywhere.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview on NBC news said that “it’s just nonsense garbage.”

Putin said that the entire idea was contrived: "It's just fake news. At the very least,
I don't know anything about this kind of thing."

Maybe. But the problem with Putin is that he, himself, is not reliable. There is nothing Putin says that can be taken at face value, nothing that can be assumed accurate or true.

Putin does not want to be caught helping Iran defend itself. But that sounds exactly like what Russia is doing. Not wanting to be caught doing something does not mean not wanting to do something.

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More On The Coup in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There continue to be ripples from the attempted overthrow of the King of Jordan several months ago.

At the time, Prince Hamza, a step brother of the current King, was placed under house arrest and charged with attempting to topple the King.

Now, the former head of the royal court, Bassem Awadallah, is standing trial. Also standing trial is former finance minister Sharif Hassan Zaid, a distant relative, who played a significant role in trying to liberalize Jordan’s economy.

The two were arrested in early April when the former heir to the throne, Prince Hamza, was placed under house arrest over allegations that he had liaised with foreign parties over a plot to destabilize Jordan, a close U.S. ally in the Middle East.

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Egypt in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has pledged $500 million to help repair and rebuild Gaza.

Last week Egyptian army tractors and other equipment crossed the border between Gaza and Egypt. Accompanying the equipment were soldiers. Army engineers crossed the border alongside the equipment.

Egyptian officers and soldiers are in Gaza for the first time since 1967.

They are there to help rebuild Gaza and they are there to monitor where Egypt’s money is going. And very importantly, the Egyptian soldiers are in Gaza to make certain that Hamas does not, once again, shoot rockets into Israel.

Not everyone is pleased that Egypt’s military is in Gaza. Palestinians fear that this is an Egyptian move to invade or at least, to take over Gaza.

And Israel has asked Egypt to remove their equipment. Israel, too, is fearful about Egypt trying to play too large a role in Gaza.

If all Egypt wants to do is rein in Hamas, that’s a good goal. But is that really all they want? Is it worth the risk of permitting Egypt into Gaza?

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Arab Jewish Violence in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Jaffa, which is part of Tel Aviv, is what Israelis call a mixed city.

That means that, in this city, Jews and Arabs live together. 100% of the Arabs of Jaffa are 100% citizens of Israel.

Over the past few weeks mixed cities in Israel has seen tremendous violent eruptions between Jews and Arabs. Most of the violence - though not all, has been Arabs attacking Jews.

In the Ajami neighborhood in Jaffa, 3 young Arab men threw a Molotov Cocktail into a home. They thought, incorrectly, that the home was inhabited by Jews.

The attack landed a 12 year old Arab in the hospital, severely injured with terrible burns.

Police have arrested the three young men. Investigators say that the accused were acting in retaliation for the violence which has taken place in Lod, another mixed city, and on the Temple Mount. The three were also upset that Arabs were evicted from homes in the Sheik Jerach neighborhood in Jerusalem

After their arrest, additional weapons - not just materials for Molotov Cocktails, were discovered in the homes of the three young men.

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Hareidi Frustration w Bennett
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

For the first time in the history of modern Israel, the prime minster will be a kippa wearing shomer shabbat (Sabbath observant) Jew. Although Menahem Begin was shomer shabbat and often wore a kippa, he was known for donning and then removing his head covering.

So why is Naftali Bennett being attacked by the Hareidi religious community? Why is he being called “the evil one” and the “destroyer of Judaism in Israel” and “a traitor to Judaism”?

The answer has nothing to do with Judaism or of that decision ition – and everything to do with budget.

Hareidi parties, by their own choice, are no longer in the government. And when you are no longer in government, you no longer have power. And that means that your special interests will no longer receive special attention or – and more importantly, budgets.

The Hareidi community will take a significant budget hit with this new government. Established educational institutions and schools will, of course, receive allocations. But almost no schools in the Hareidi community conform to national standards and they will now suffer the consequences.

Not only will Hareidi education suffer, Hareidi housing projects will fall to a low priority issue, as well.

For decades Hareidi leadership has perfected the art of joining and supporting the government and, in exchange, they received essential money for schools and housing.

The hareidi community will not be left high and dry. Not all the benefits they have been receiving will disappear, but certainly, a significant percentage of the money they had been allocated will dry up with this new government.

The times, they are a changing.

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Iran Out in UN
By Micah Halpern

Monday June , 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran will lose its right to vote in the United Nations General Assembly this week.
They will lose the right to vote for none of the obvious reasons. Not because they sponsor terror and not because they violate the UN nuclear agreements.

Iran is in arrears to the UN. They own over $16 million in membership.

UN Secretary General Antonia Guterres explained that Iran has failed to pay their dues and as a result of that situation, he sent a note to the General Assembly President explaining that Iran’s vote may not be counted.

Somalia and the Central African Republic are also losing their voting rights. Somalia owes $1.4 million to the UN and the Central African Republic owes $29,395.

In the end everyone will pay their debt.

But given the present situation on the nuke agreement and the dialogue Iran is engaged in with the P5 + 1, Iran is snubbing their nose at the United Nations. And it probably gives them great pleasure.

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China & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I read strategic reports all the time.

The reports issued by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) are always worth reading.

One of their recent studies discusses the importance of the role of China in harnessing and guiding Iran.

The suggestion is made that China is maneuvering to assume a more responsible role in international affairs - especially in the Middle East.

China is one of the only countries in the world that can influence Iran. Until recently China was, to put it plainly and simply, a user and abuser in the region.
The Chinese maximized their economic gain and their influence. One of their ulterior motives is – and always was, to hurt the US at every turn.

China now is interested in expanding their role.
The objective of Israel and of the West, including the United States, should be to influence China to act responsibly and to use their role of trusted ally of Iran to urge Iran to moderate their moves and their activities.

Iran often acts to destabilize. China just may be the power to bring stability to the region.

They will not do it to help Israel or to help the West. They will do it to further improve their role in the region and position themselves as the power that can insure stability in the region.

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Qatar Gives 1,4 Billion to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Over the past 9 years Qatar has given Gaza $1.4 billion.
The Gazans and the Qataris claim that all the money went to reconstruction. They also claim that Israel is aware of the avenues through which the money arrived to Gaza and where the money went.

Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bi Abdulraham bin Jassim al Thani has said that Qatar played important roles as mediator in the region and Qatar wants to continue in those roles. He said that most recently Qatar, together with Egypt, helped mediate between Gaza/Hamas and Israel to achieve the current cease fire.

The problem with aid being given to Gaza is that Hamas takes a cut of everything.

As of now there is no way around Hamas’ strangle hold.
Think of it as a mafia that controls a port. To use the port, you need to pay. Or else.

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Uruguay Sings Hatikvah
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I was stunned when I heard Israel’s national anthem being sung in the second season of “Who’s Got Talent” in Uruguay.

The name of Israel’s national anthem is HaTikvah, which means “The Hope”. The anthem was sung by Lucia Abealar, a contestant in the competition. She translated the song and sang her own version.

The four judges were visibly moved. One even quoted the song, speaking about the soul that yearns to be free. And then all four judges unanimously sent Lucia on to the third round of competition.

In introducing the song HaTikvah, the contestant correctly explained that the lyrics are a poem written by Naftali Hertz Ember in 1878 and that the music was added later.

Uruguay has no real skin in the game. They are a small country that has returned to, once again, being a democracy. The people of Uruguay care about important values and they have become friends of Israel.

We are often jaded by the many negative and loud voices heaping criticism upon Israel. But we must always maintain our faith and understanding in the values we know to be true.

It has taken Who’s Got Talent to teach us that love of Israel can be a universal concept.

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Arabs Take Take Down Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is no longer Israel’s prime minister – that’s big news.
Bigger news is that the ouster of Israel’s longest serving prime minister was orchestrated with the assistance of the Israeli Arab political party Raam. Mansour Abbas, the head of the Raam party tossed the four Knesset votes of his party to the opposition.

Those four votes put the opposition coalition over the top, toppling Bibi and shifting political power in Israel.

And now, Palestinians in Gaza are calling Mansour Abbas a traitor, a man who acted for personal gain. They are calling him an “opportunist.”

Those lambasting Mansour Abbas are blinded by years of indoctrination and hatred.

In joining the government for the first time ever, Mansour Abbas (not to be confused with Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority) is cementing the opportunity to secure more funds for Israeli Arab infrastructure in the cities and town and villages where they live.

Abbas has already secured 36 million NIS in additional funds for roads and for beefing up police departments to protect his constituents from the roaming Arab gangs who terrorize their communities.

Of course there are problems with Abbas joining the government. But most of them are ideological. Practically speaking, this is a win- win for democracy in Israel.

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Iran's Largest Naval Ship Sinks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Things aren’t going well for Iran’s military.

On June 2nd, Iran’s largest naval ship caught fire and sank near the port of Jask.
There has been no confirmation as to the cause of the fire.

A day earlier, an airplane accident led to the death of two Iranian pilots.

These news events were confirmed by Tasnim, one of the official media outlets of Iranian leadership. The name of the ship was the Kharg. It is a helicopter carrier and from the ship’s deck, dozens of attack helicopters could land or launch. But it was more than that. This ship was also outfitted with electrical generators capable of supplying electricity for an entire city.

According to an Iranian official: “This ship is one of the most advanced vessels of the Iranian military and is sometimes called a helicopter carrier.”

Tensions are extremely high throughout the region. There have been Iranian attacks on Israeli interests on the high seas. And there have been attacks against Iranian ship and targets that, Iran claims, have been the work of Israel.

Iran has not only been attacking Israeli vessels. They have also harassed US naval ships, US coastguard boats and commercial US vessels in the region.
Iran is keeping busy – and that’s not good news for anyone.

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Hamas & the UN
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In a stunning announcement Hamas declared that both the head and the deputy head of UNRWA are persona non grata. They are not permitted into Gaza. UNRWA – the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East is the UN division that is dedicated to Palestinians especially in Gaza.

UNRWA notoriously attacks Israel at every turn and have been known to aid terrorists.

Why would they do this? What provoked their actions? Turns out that Hamas leaders were displeased with UNRWA’s Gaza director, Matthias Schmale.

Schmale was called out by Hamas for siding with Israel or, as Hamas put it, for ‘bias in favor of the occupation”. Hamas is calling for the removal and the replacement of both UN officials.

What was it exactly that the UNRWA head in Gaza said? What so angered Hamas?
He said: “I have the impression there is a huge sophistication in the way the Israeli military struck over the 11 days … Yes they didn’t hit, with some exceptions, civilian targets, but the viciousness, the ferocity of those strikes were heavily felt.
More than 60 children were killed, 19 of who went to UNRWA schools. So, I think the precision was there but there was unacceptable and unbearable loss of life on the civilian side.”

In other words, Israel was very precise in their strikes against Hamas and Islamic
Jihad terrorists. But he was by no means flattering or siding with Israel.
Schmale told the truth. But Hamas and their supporters are not interested in truth.

There is a Post Script to this story - because of pressure, Schmale walked back his comments and said he meant no insult. Hamas has power not only over Gaza, but also in the UN.

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Iran Violates Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The International Atomic Energy Agency, aka the IAEA, discovered evidence of nuclear particles in a number of sites in Iran.

After the evidence was discovered, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi announced fresh talks with Iran.

In his report about Iran Grossi wrote: “After many months, Iran has not provided the necessary explanation for the presence of the nuclear material particles at any of the three locations where the Agency has conducted complementary accesses (inspections).”

Britain, France and Germany now need to decide whether or not they will sponsor the imposition of new sanctions on Iran for violating the nuclear agreement.

For these countries, who so want the nuke deal, it is a tough decision.

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Mossad Success in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Yossi Cohen, the man who has served as head of the Mossad, Israel’s famous spy organization, has just ended his 5 year appointment.

In his farewell to the agency, with Prime Minister Netanyahu at his side, Cohen recounted some of Mossad’s great achievements under his tenure.

He said: “We penetrated into the heart of hearts of the enemy Iran … We acted to constantly gather intelligence and uncover its secrets, and undermined its self-confidence and haughtiness.”

Cohen also said that the operation to squirrel away Iran’s nuclear archive had “exposed to the whole world Iran’s military nuclear program, its plans, its preservation of capabilities in the military nuclear field and Iran’s fraud and lies.”

Farewell, Yossi Cohen. Welcome, David Barnea – new head of the Mossad.

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Iran Tells Israel go Back From Where you Came
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is very good at the media game.

In a recently issued message to Israel, Iranian Quds Force commander Ismail Kaani warned that Israel will soon be destroyed and that the Palestinians will control all of the land.

He said: "We recommend Israelis buy back the houses they sold in Europe, America, and elsewhere, before they become expensive".
Kaani delivered this message as part of a speech he gave during an event marking the 40th anniversary of the death of Quds Force deputy commander Imad Hizaju.

Later, Kaani congratulated Hamas on their success during the recent military operation in Gaza.

It is important to understand the history meaning behind Kaani’s message. Israelis are buying properties from Arabs in Jerusalem. When Kaani said “buy back your apartments in the countries from which you came”, the Iranian Quds commander is really saying that Israelis are not natives, that they are colonizers and interlopers.

He is saying that the land belongs to the Palestinians.

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Assad Re-elected
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Syria re-elected Bashar Assad as president.
Of course they did. In a dictatorship, the dictator always gets re-elected.

The question is by how much of a majority did Assad win. Certainly not a small majority of the vote, that would never do. In this election, Assad garnered 95.1% of the vote. At least, those were the official numbers.

In the last election, which was held in 2014, Assad won 88.4% of the vote. Apparently, he is much more popular today than he was 7 years ago.

It might surprise you to know that there were 3 candidates who stood for the May 26th election in Syria. The names of the two other candidates were obscure, they were unknowns.

Syria’s High Constitutional Court released their names on May 3rd. That was 22 days before the presidential election. If it was a real election there was no way to garner support let alone to get a groundswell of voters.

Syrians living in Lebanon were permitted to vote in this election. Syria views

Lebanon as a Syrian district. And about 1 million Syrian Lebanese voted in the election.

Obviously, this was a show of support for Assad, not a real election. Assad was guaranteed a fourth victory clearly and simply because he is a dictator. No other option existed.

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Jewish Hate Crimes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The drastic rise in hate crimes targeting Jews has not fostered many responses on the grassroots level.

Some figures, like Senator Bernie Sanders, have even announced that they’ve had enough with all the condemning of anti-Semitism.

But there have been some inspiring attempts to help and assist the many frightened Jews. Especially frightened are those who are “obviously identifiable Jews.”

A group of martial arts experts in LA is being organized by a Remi Franklin, a Jewish martial arts instructor.

Franklin is coordinating jiujitsu, karate, mixed martial arts and boxer instructors who will escort Jews going to and from synagogue and will also secure synagogues in LA. His group is working together with a Jewish security group named Magen Am.

In interviews with the LA Times and The Forward, Remi Franklin explains that coordinating these communities combines his Jewish life and his martial arts life.

Haters of Jews need to witness strong powerful Jews and their friends standing together, standing tall and standing proud.

We need more people like Remi Franklin.

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US to Re-Open Jerusalem Consulate
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Tony Blinken has wrapped up his trip to Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

The secretary of state promised to re-open the US consulates in the Arab section of Jerusalem. He said that President Biden will ask congress for $75 million to re-open the consulate and for humanitarian assistance.
Why, you might ask, is there a need for a US consulate in Jerusalem - isn’t the embassy housed in Jerusalem?

The answer is that the consulate will serve the Palestinian community.

Blinken also indicated that President Biden will ask Congress for even more help for the Palestinians. Biden will ask for another $5.5 million in addition to the original request of $32 million slated for humanitarian aid.

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Jews Care About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Pew Research Center Religion and Public Life published a study in mid-May which attached numbers to Jews and their attachment to Israel.

Look at these numbers.

45% of American Jews think that caring about Israel is essential to being Jewish. 37% think that caring about Israel is important. Only 16% of American Jews polled think that the Israel is not important.

The study was conducted between June 19, 2019 through June 3, 2020.

So - what conclusions can be drawn from the Pew Study?

The most important conclusion is that Israel is still important to the overwhelming majority of Jews in the United States.

I find that to be remarkably comforting. I would guess most of those 16% of Jews do not feel anything is important to their identity, not just Israel.
Poor souls.

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From Cease Fire to Peace - NO!
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Since the cease fire between Israel and Hamas went into effect, I have heard over and over that it is essential to ride the wave of momentum and to continue on. The assumption is that the cease fire will lead to a peace deal.

And I say - No way! Definitely not! To think this way is, quite frankly, to flaunt your ignorance. It is wishful thinking.

Hamas’ raison d’etre is the destruction of Israel, it is the basis of their charter.
Hamas does not want peace. For Hamas the cease fire was a protective move undertaken to prevent their total destruction.
Anyone who knows the region, knows this to be true.

So, you ask, why did the UAE and Qatar volunteer to help continue to broker a peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

And why did Egypt's foreign minister, during a visit to Jordan on Sunday, discuss ways to build on the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, ways de-escalate tensions in the Palestinian territories and ways to revive the Middle East peace process. And why was all of that announced in an official foreign ministry statement. They certainly understand the region.

The answer is - because, they have an ulterior meeting.

The Palestinian Authority is the only party that can negotiate peace with Israel. And right now the PA is not ready to take that step.

The UAE and Qatar and Egypt countries know that. But for the moment, they want to ride the wave of success and gain favor in the eyes of the United States and other Western countries.

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How Israel Destroyed 14 Stories
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


I watched the Israeli air-force demolish a 14 story building that was a center for
Hamas activity. The building was used especially for planning and for communications.

The video I watched was shot from a neighboring building.

The media felt so secure that Israel would be pin pint accurate with their shot that they were right there to tape the demolition. And indeed, Israel was accurate.

As always, Israel also text messaged people to get out of the building. I watched and listened as Israel called the guard of the building and asked him to evacuate.
They asked how long it would take. He responded 2 to 3 hours. They said good and then they called back to confirm that everyone was safely out of the building.
Even in war and conflict Israel maintains a respect for the lives of their fellow humans.

Most local media working for foreign outlets and covering this conflict are extremely biased. They did not even realize that by telling this particular story they were proving Israel’s point – not Hamas’ point.

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Arab Riots in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Rioting by Arabs in Israel has spun out of control.
Attacks on Israeli Jews by Israeli Arabs have increased dramatically.

There have been violent riots by Arabs against Jews in Jerusalem, Haifa, Lod, Tiberias, Acre, Umm al Fahm, Bat Yam, Jaffa, Jisr a Zarqa, Wadi Ara, Hadera and Beer Sheba.

In the course of these riots 374 Arabs were arrested and 36 police were injured. Many of those arrested were teenagers, some as young as 13 years old.

A synagogue in Jaffa was set on fire.

Beatings of individuals by gangs have taken place.

Policing is only one tool to prevent riots. Real prevention requires real community work and an investment of time and effort. Unfortunately, over the past few years
Israeli leadership has neglected crucial issues in Israeli Arab communities.
Frustrations have festered. We are seeing the result.

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Israel and Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is important to understand the real reasons behind the conflict that erupted between Israel and the Palestinians.

The eviction of 7 families from their East Jerusalem homes, despite what many are claiming, is not a reason for the conflict. The posturing for position by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad within the Palestinian community is the reason for the eruption of this conflict.

Israel mishandled the housing riots. They should have known better and that mismanagement poured proverbial fuel on the flames.

The riots served to force Hamas’ hand. Hamas wanted to make themselves relevant to Palestinians – more relevant than Fatah. And so they launched 1,800 rockets into Israel within 48 hours.

Israel hit back. They hit 750 targets and 160 rocket launchers. Within 18 minutes
Israel launched 170 smart bombs aimed at terrorists and at terror facilities – especially missile launchers and weapons depots and command and control centers. They were all surgical strikes.

The IDF claims to have successfully targeted 60 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist leaders. Hamas says that the Israeli strikes have killed 100 people. Israel will continue to attack Hamas and PIJ leaders.

Israel’s objective it to eliminate both the rockets and Hamas and PIJ leadership.
Israel’s objective is to keep Israelis safe.


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Israel & Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza will not end quickly.

Israeli leadership is of one mind. Israel will continue to strike at Hamas and at Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leadership and their infrastructure.

Israeli leadership believes that: “whatever is not done now will need to be done again in 6 months or a year.”

Israel is targeting terror commanders and communication centers and they are striking weapons depots.

Soon Israel will advance teams on the ground to rid out the terrorists and to destroy their centers of operation. The teams will go in under the cover of darkness.

In three days over 1000 rockets have been shot from Gaza into Israel.

Israeli injuries and deaths are mounting and that means that the government must continue to strike Gaza until Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad is no longer a threat to Israeli citizens.

Not an easy decision to make, but a necessary decision. Israeli leadership cares about the lives and the quality of life of Israelis.

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Israel & S Korea Signing Free Trade
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel and South Korea are signing a free trade agreement. This agreement is the first of its kind between Israel and an Asian market.

The purpose of a free trade agreement is to bolster investments and create a market between countries. In general, when there is a free trade agreement, most goods are tax free. So, the price of the items go down. And when that happens, sales and profits go up. The lost money from import taxes is made up on the sale of other items. As a result, economies blossom – all because good were imported without taxes.

In 2020, total trade between Israel and South Korea came to $2.4 billion. 33% of that was Israel importing goods from South Korea. That means that two-thirds of the $2.4 billion was Israel exports to South Korea.

This free trade agreement is very good news for the Israeli economy.

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Gaza Lofting Eplosions
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It’s happening again.

Incendiary balloons, launched from Gaza into Israel, are making a comeback. Twenty fires were ignited by balloons launched from Gaza into Israel.

The balloons fly into Israel and fall as if in a burning cloud. When they fall, they hit dry ground and crops. The dry ground and the crops catch on fire. Often, the fires burn out of control.

And rockets continue to be launched into Israel from Gaza.

The Iron Dome defense system shot down two rockets over Ashkelon. The Gaza launched rockets were aimed at civilian targets.

The Iron Dome is only activated when rockets are clearly headed into civilian areas. If they are headed to fall in an abandoned area like a field, there is no need to waste the massive amount of money it costs to shoot the rockets down.

Violence in Israel has increased. Acts of terror have increased. Aerial attacks have increased. Palestinians in Gaza are getting restless, They are flexing their collective muscle. They are taking aim at Israel.

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India's COVID Trouble
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Despite a national lockdown, India is suffering terribly from COVID.

In March there was hardly any COVID in India. And then the tide turned and the pandemic surges. In the course of this last month, almost 250,000 people died as a result of COVID.

The numbers rise exponentially. The number of people testing positive for COVID increases by over 400,000 from one day to the next. Think about it. Over a four day period the number of people in India with COVID reaches 23 million. And that number continues to rise exponentially with each passing day.

The closure is helping, but the virus still progresses. Without the closure the situation would be even more dire. Almost one billion 400 thousand people live in India. They are all at risk.

With so many people, it is impossible to vaccinate any significant percentage of the population in a short period of time. Many more people will get sick and many will die. That is the unfortunate reality of India today.

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1st Orthodox Female Rabbi in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

History is being made in Israel.

For the first time ever, a woman has been hired to be the leader of an orthodox synagogue.

Rabanit Shira Marili Mirvis was appointed to lead Congregation Shirat Tamar in Efrat.

Mirvis will graduate from a five-year course at the Susi Bradfield Women’s Institute of Halakhic Leadership (WIHL) at Ohr Torah Stone’s Midreshet Lindenbaum in June.
Her course of study included Jewish law pertaining to Shabbat, kashrut, family purity, mourning, marriage and divorce. The program certifies graduates as “spiritual leaders” and “morot hora’ah” - women authorized to provide direction in matters of Jewish law.

Rabbi Kenneth Brander, president and yeshiva head of Ohr Torah Stone expressed his pride in this first of its kind program for women. He said:

“I am deeply hopeful and confident that we will look back on this moment as one which paved a new halachic direction for the rightful place of women spiritual leaders within the Orthodox community.”

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Mossad Head in Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Yossi Cohen, the head of Israel’s Mossad, visited Bahrain.

In Bahrain, Cohen met with his counterparts, the head of Bahrain’s national intelligence and the head of Bahrain’s strategic security.

There is tension in the region. Tension over Iran and how to deal with the Iranian regime. And tension caused by Israel's deal to normalize relations with Bahrain, aka the island kingdom. And further tension because Iran is trying to whip up anger against Israel.

Cohen’s visit and the meetings he held were reported about on Bahraini state run media.

The statement carried by the news agency was brief.

It said only that Yossi Cohen met with Bahrain's heads of national intelligence and strategic security to discuss "the most prominent security topics, regional developments and issues of common interest."

Neither Bahrain nor Israel want to cause more and unwarranted tension.

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Iran Threatens Israeli Shipping
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

For months I have explained, repeatedly explained, that Israel’s shipping assets are at risk.

For months, Iran has been targeting Israeli commercial ships on the high seas.

Now Iranian General Hussein Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is threatening Israel’s maritime trade. Salami has said that Israeli shipping could be "easily disrupted."

Iran and Israel have targeted each other’s ships. But Iran thinks that it has the upper hand. The Iranian general told state TV that Israel's small size makes it "more susceptible to such a devastating attack."
"On action can bring down this whole regime.”

General Hussein Salami was just posturing or sounding off. He was delivering a message.

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Iran In COVID Trouble
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has purchased 60 million Sputnik V COVD vaccines from Russia. The Sputnik V is a two-dose vaccine.

60 million vaccines, at two doses each, means that Iran purchased enough vaccine for 30 million people. Sounds like good news - except that Iran has a population of 84 million.

Iran is in total COVID lockdown. Almost the entire country, 85% of the cities which comes to 250 cities, are in Red or Orange zones.

Thus far, only 100,000 people in Iran have been vaccinated.

Making matters worse is that the Sputnik V vaccine is not expected to reach Iran until the end of 2021. are only expecting the vaccines by years end.
The situation is dire.

Iran is living a COVID nightmare. The country is on the precipice. At this rate, millions of Iranians will die from COVID.

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Biden Meets Mossad Chief
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

US President Joe Biden met with Yossi Cohen, the head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. They met one-on-one in the Oval Office.

The president of the United States receives a daily briefing on intel threats throughout the world. But this meeting was not a simple intel briefing.
Cohen was sent to Washington as a direct emissary of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And immediately after leaving the meeting, Cohen called and briefed his prime minister.

The topic of the meeting was Iran.

Israel is not happy with the on-going Iranian negotiations. The United States is not happy with Israel’s moves and counter moves against Iran.

Relations and interactions between Jerusalem and DC are still positive. The United States and Israel are working together - even when they disagree.


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COVID in Israel Almost Gone
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

As of the first week in May, Israel had a COVID positivity rate 0.1 percent. In real numbers that means that of the 9,236 people tested for COVID, only 13 people were positive.

There were 62 Israelis on ventilators, 102 hospitalized and two deaths.

That brought the entire fatality total in Israel to 6,365.

This was very good news.

Israel is still restricting entrance to the country, but progress on that front is being made. People entering from high COVID countries like India are put in quarantine hotels for 14 days and then tested.

Slow and cautious. That’s how Israel is managing the pandemic.


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Iran Sees Lift of Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media is reporting that their negotiations with the P-5+1 are going very well.

Their media is reporting that the talks in Vienna will lead to the lifting of sanctions on oil, banks, individuals and institutions.

"Sanctions ... on Iran's energy sector, which include oil and gas, or those on the automotive industry, financial, banking and port sanctions, all should be lifted based on agreements reached so far," Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted telling Iranian state media.

Washington, on the other hand, is playing down any progress.
One day soon, we should know the truth about these negotiations.

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Death on Lag B'Omer
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The stampede that took place in Meron, Israel on Lag B’Omer is nothing short of a catastrophe.

The numbers will continue to rise – as of this writing there are 44 dead Israeli celebrants and 150 injured.

We are getting some background information on the stampede.

Meron sits on top of a mountain. There is only one way in and out. 500,000 people were at Meron for Lag B’Omer. As some people were trying to descend the mountain, they fell. And then they were trampled.

Lag B’Omer is a celebration tribute to RASHBI aka Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai, the traditional author of the Zohar, the work that forms the foundation of Jewish mysticism. People come to Meron to commemorate his Yahrzeit, the anniversary of his death.

They go to Meron and light bonfires. Why? There are many reasons.

In the Zohar Shimon bar Yochai is frequently referred to as Butzina Kadisha, which in Aramaic means “the holy candle.”

Zohar actually means splendor which really means light.

So in his honor, on this day, year after year, bonfires are lit.

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Azerbaijan Opens Tourism Office in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Azerbaijan's Economy Minister, Mikayil Jabbarov, announced that Azerbaijan will open an office in Tel Aviv. The office will advance tourism and diplomacy.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi has said about Azerbaijan: "Azerbaijan is our greatest friend and energy supplier. We will continue to work to develop relations."

This is new, important and very good news.

Azerbaijan and Israel have had diplomatic relations for over a decade.
Azerbaijan is a Muslim country.
Azerbaijan has tremendous assets of oil and natural gas.

Advancing tourism will help both countries.

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Tourism Waking Up in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is starting to let tourists enter the country. Hopefully, the doors will soon be open to every tourist who wishes to enter.

Until now, Israeli authorities have been vigilant - not letting tourists in and even putting returning Israelis through a very rigorous regiment. Some have ankle monitors, others were put in forced isolation in hotels, still others isolated at home.

How can Israel’s behavior be compared to other countries? The Jerusalem Post asked the question of a health professional government source.

The source responded: “Countries around the world are open to varying degrees …

You have countries like Australia and New Zealand, which are totally shut to tourists, and then there is the European Union, which says that EU citizens can only move from country to country under certain conditions. Then you have countries like Estonia, Iceland and Slovenia that are letting in vaccinated people from certain countries only.”

“Then, on the other hand, we see countries like Greece, Cyprus and Portugal rushing to let people in as fast as they can. As a rule of thumb, countries whose economies are heavily dependent on tourism are willing to take greater health risks to reopen than others. In Israel, about 250,000 people are in the tourism industry, but in others, it makes up 20% of GDP.”
Not bad.

I predict that Israel will slowly continue to open.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis are employed in businesses connected to tourism. Hotels, for example are slowly opening - 30% are still closed.

Tourism will certainly bolster, even lift, Israel’s economy.

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Abbas Postpones PA Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced, first to his cabinet and then to the EU, that he is postponing the Palestinian Parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of May.

The EU asked to delay the announcement to give them time to influence or pressure Israel.

Why pressure Israel? Because the reason given for the postponement was that Israel was not permitting people living in Jerusalem to vote in the election or to run for the Palestinian parliament.

While that is true, it is by no means the reason behind the postponement.
The real reason is that the polls, as well as common sense, show that Hamas has a united party and campaign while the PA is divided into many factions.

If the election were to be held, Abbas’ party will lose seats and lose power. According to all polls Hamas looks to gain the overwhelming plurality.

A victory for Hamas would be the end of Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. It would also mean a very different relationship between Israel and the Palestinians.

As I have been predicting over the past several months, there is no way Abbas will allow for an election - and then lose.


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Is Sells 22% Gas Field to Abu Dhabi
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Delek Drilling, one of Israel’s largest energy companies, is selling 22% of Tamar - one of its offshore natural gas fields, to a conglomerate owned by the government of Abu Dhabi called Mubadala.

The price of the sale is set at $1.1 billion.

As of now the gas field, which has exceeded all expectations and is successfully driving down the price of natural gas, is jointly owned by Delek Drilling, Chevron, Isramco, which is an Israeli energy company, and a few smaller partners. Delek Drilling is owned by Israeli billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva.

This is very good news. The idea that Israel is becoming a player in the region’s energy market is significant. The fact that Arab countries are partnering with Israel in energy drilling and marketing is monumental.

Times are changing. Ten years ago, this ever happening was just a dream.

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France Permits Jewish Murder
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The highest court in France ruled that a Muslim man named Kobili Traore could not be tried and was not criminally responsible for murdering Sarah Halimi, a 65 year old Jewish woman, a retired doctor and teacher whom he threw out of her 3rd floor window.

Traore’s defense was that he was not responsible because he was under the influence of marijuana. The exact words were he was in a “delirious fit.”

As he threw her out the window, witnesses heard him shout Allahu Achbar – Arabic for God is the greatest.

Tens of thousands of people, all around the world, protested this decision by the French court. The main protest was held in front of the Eifel Tower where protesters held up signs which read “Jewish Lives Matter.”

French President Emmanuel Macron weighed in. This was the second time he commented on this highly unusual case. France respects the separation of powers and Macron instructed the minister of justice to change this law and to change it ASAP.

Macron said France: “does not judge citizens who are sick, we treat them … But deciding to take drugs and then ‘going crazy’ should not, in my opinion, take away your criminal responsibility.”

The president of France wants to reassure the Jewish community that the Republic would keep them safe. He said: “It’s not for me to comment on a court decision, but I would like to express to the family, to the relatives of the victim, and to all our Jewish citizens who were waiting for a trial, my warm support and the Republic’s determination to protect them.”

Macron’s remarks were quoted in the French daily LaFigaro.

This French law permits people to murder with total impunity, in the name of terror, by simply shouting the words “Allahu Achbar”. It is a truly perfect defense for a perfect crime if you want to murder Jews.

And that’s a problem.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Hussein Baqeri, said that Iran will “teach Israel a lesson.”

This message cum warning was broadcast across Iranian media. It appeared in every outlet, on television, on radio and on the internet.

The general said: "Israelis think they can keep hitting Syria and make mischievous moves elsewhere and in the seas and not receive any response.”

"The moves made in the past few days and future moves against their interests will make them be wise."

"We don't announce anything about the incidents that happened recently, nor do we know who did it, but the resistance front will teach a very good lesson to Israel."

There’s more, he indicated that: "if Israel's actions against Iran" continue, it's "not clear how Iran will respond, but the Zionist regime will not remain peaceful." The expression “not remain peaceful” is Iran’s way of saying that Israelis will not have peace of mind or quiet moments in their homes.
These are direct threats.

There have been a number of military hits, back and forth between Israel and Iran and her proxies. The intensity has escalated. The targets have escalated.

The unanswered question now is will Iran increase or decrease the targets and the intensity.

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UAE & Israel Plant Trees
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Who can argue with Earth Day?

Earth Day should be the one event that unites everyone around the world. And yet, it was still a major event and a pleasant surprise when the UAE sponsored a tree planting – along with Israeli representation, at their embassy in Washington DC. The UAE ambassador planted an olive tree along with the Israeli ambassador. And a twin tree, an olive tree, will be planted in the garden of the Israeli embassy.

The UAE Ambassador Youse al Otaiba marked the occasion saying: “Warmer relations will help get us to a cooler planet. Normalization is already accelerating climate cooperation between the UAE and Israel. These efforts in innovation, promotion and finance will help deliver the benefits of low-carbon, sustainable economic growth across the region and world.”

Other ambassadors and dignitaries present at this special event included Ambassador Princess Lalla Joumala of Morocco, Ambassador Dina Kawar of Jordan, Ambassador Motaz Zahran of Egypt, and Deputy Chief of Mission Yousif Ahmed of Bahrain, Ambassador Barbara Leaf, Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Security Council and Ted Deutch, Chairman for the
Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

This will, hopefully, be one in a long list of events jointly celebrated by Israel and the UAE.

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More on Missile From Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thurssday April 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


A follow up to yesterday’s entry.
The missile launched from Syria into Israel needs much further investigation.

It appears that the missile was a Russian made and supplied SA- 5 surface to air anti-aircraft missile. And although it flew over Jerusalem and into the Negev Desert, it now looks like it was actually a misfire from Syria.

Israel’s air defense did not shoot the missile down. The Israeli system is designed against surface to surface missiles, not surface to air missiles. Surface to air missiles are not at all accurate when used to hit targets on the ground.

The design of the SA-5 is actually not to hit the target aircraft but to blow up near it. If it misses its target, the missile self-destructs.
In this case, the rocket blew up mid-air.

Although, Iran claims that this missile was in retaliation for the Natanz bombing, it seems unlikely. It is also unlikely that Syria is using anti-aircraft weapons to attack Israeli targets on the ground.

These missiles have a long range and they can clearly threaten Israeli aircraft. As an example, in 2018 Syria shot down both an Israeli fighter jet over Israel and a drone. Israel quickly retaliated by hitting five rocket launch sites in Syria.

Syria has the weapons to launch more attacks against Israel. But Syria clearly does not want to escalate for fear of Israeli counter attacks.

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Missile From Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Syria launched a missile strike against Israel’s nuclear plant in Dimona, located in the Negev Desert in the very south of Israel.

Israel’s anti-missile defense system went into effect and Patriot missiles were launched from all over Israel. Reports of the Patriots were heard in Israel’s north, in Jerusalem and near Dimona.

And then, in response, Israel immediately struck targets outside of Damascus.
DImona, Israel’s nuclear facility is at the other end of Israel. This was not an errant rocket or a mistake.

This was a tit for tat. Israel attacked Iran’s nuke facility in Natanz so Syria, an Iranian proxy, attacked Israel’s nuke lab.

Iran’s hardline Kayhan newspaper published an opinion piece by Iranian analyst Sadollah Zarei suggesting that Israel’s Dimona facility be targeted after the attack on Natanz. Zarei cited the idea of “an eye for an eye” in his remarks.

He wrote that action should be taken “against the nuclear facility in Dimona ... This is because no other action is at the same level as the Natanz incident.”

It seems pretty obvious that Iran is trying a “Hail Mary”, throwing a long pass trying to hit Dimona. Israel did not confirm that they successfully shot down the missile, but it certainly did not hit Dimona.


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Israel Orders 3rd Shot
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel has signed agreements with Pfizer and with Moderna for 9 million more vaccines to be used for a second round of COVID shots.

Netanyahu said that they will start revaccinating the country, children included, in six months. He told the country to prepare their shoulders and to prepare their children because in 6 months the vaccine will be approved for children.
In addition, the prime minister told Israelis that they are bidding on building factories which will produce vaccines in Israel.

Israel has determined that, without a doubt, there is a need for a booster shot to control the COVID virus. The new vaccines will be tweaked to protect against the new variants that are punching through the old vaccines.

Six months puts us at October, just after the New Year and High Holidays.

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Israel & US At Odds
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States and Israel are at odds about Iran.

The United States, along with the five other permanent members of the UN’s Security Council plus Germany are in serious talks with Iran about their nuclear development.

While that is happening, Israel attacked Iran’s Natanz nuclear lab knocking out their centrifuge system.

The United States made it very clear to Israel that they were unhappy about the attack. So Israel has agreed to step back and halt their aggressive strikes against Iran. The trade off is that Israel is expecting – or at least hoping, to have significant input into US and policy regarding Iran.

I would posit that Israel stepped up their strikes against Iranian targets in order to one day – which turns out to be now, pull back. Israel always intended to use these attacks as a valuable card to play with the United States.

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Elections in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

This year, Spring is the season of Middle East elections.
Syria has announced that on May 26th they will hold presidential elections.

Assad will win a third term as president. These are not true elections and his win is a certainty.

The Assad family belongs to a minority group in Syria. They are Alawites. And Syria’s Alawites control their brutal security forces. Opposition is not tolerated. A part of the Syrian election law is that a candidate must have lived in Syria for the past 10 years.

There is no opposition within Syria.

In 2011, protests in Syria began in the south of the country. The protestors were asking for election and political reform. The protests were crushed and so began a civil war that has, for the past ten years, devastated the country.

The only question about Syria’s upcoming election is whether Bashar Assad will win 85% or 95% or even 98% of the vote.

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US Displeased w Israeli Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States has made it known to Israel that they are displeased with the strikes on Iran.

The US is especially unhappy with Israel’s “boasting” about their success and claiming responsibility for the attacks - something that Israel has been loath to do in the past.

When there is an element of doubt it leaves the target, in this case Iran, questioning not just whether it was Israel but if the strike was a coordinated effort.
Was the United States involved? Was there intel from agencies from other countries? Were their neighboring countries involved?

The United States is concerned because Iran has announced that they are enriching uranium to 60%. That is 20 times the agreed upon enrichment level.

Because of strike on Natanz and the strikes on Iranian ships – all courtesy of Israel, the US is going to have a difficult time at the negotiation table in Vienna.

What we have here are two very arrogant nations. The United States is dictating to Israel. The US believes that they can tell the world what to do and what not to do. Israel, meanwhile, is telling the United States that they will do what is necessary in order to achieve safety for their citizens.

Neither country is about too change their point of view.

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PA Elections- Maybe?
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Elections for the Palestinian legislature are scheduled to take place on Thursday, May 22nd.

Presidential elections are scheduled for July 31.

Polls are telling us that Fatah, the ruling party of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO, is having a difficult time getting a majority or - even a plurality.
Because of these polls, I anticipate that the elections will be postponed or even cancelled.

The Palestinians will blame it on Israel. They will claim that because Israel is not permitting Palestinians residing in Jerusalem to vote, they cannot hold a true election.

That of course is simply a smoke screen. It is a contrived excuse to save Fatah, with Abbas at its head, the embarrassment of losing. It really is a big deal. Losing this election would not just be an embarrassment – losing would mean the end of the Palestinian Authority and the end of Fatah as we know it.

In the meantime there are several parties that are contenders in this election.
They include Fatah and Fatah breakoffs - but Hamas is a contender as well.

If the elections take place there will be serious changes within the PA, if not a total implosion. The situation could certainly devolve into armed battle between factions.

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Biden Sanctions Russia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Biden Administration has slapped Russia with a series of sanctions.

The announcement about these sanctions was unclear as to the timing. There was no date given for when these measures would take effect.

It did, however, explain that included in the sanctions will be a list of banned companies. Also included is the expulsion of diplomats. And finally, the sanctions will prevent US banks from buying any Russian bonds from Russia’s central bank, from their national wealth fund and from the Russian finance ministry.

This is a major step in the right direction. Russia has been a significant agitator in the US political arena and in US financial markets. When it comes to foreign affairs, the Russians tease and taunt the United States.

In response to the Biden announcement, Moscow said that they are considering a response which may also include counter sanctions against then United States. The Kremlin spokesperson explained that: "The principle of reciprocity for such matters has not been canceled, but everything will depend on the decisions made by the (Russian) head of state.”

Every decision in Russia, we all well know, is made by the head of state.

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Israel @73
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel celebrated 73 year of independence.

This was no small feat. 73 years ago, most people doubted that Israel would survive a single year - no less 73.

This past year was tough for everyone world over. But Israel seems to have emerged out of the dark tunnel called COVID.

In honor of Independence Day, for the first time in thirteen months, the city of Tel Aviv held large outdoor concerts for children. There was a limit of 650 children per concert and all the children were given a free COVID rapid test within an hour of the concert. The test gave results in 15 minutes. The test was developed by an Israeli bio tech company and results came back in fifteen minutes.

As required for all large gatherings, even outdoor gatherings, masks were worn.

Life is not yet back to the normal we used to live, but in Tel Aviv as in all of Israel, a new normal is developing. And life goes on.

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Iran's Fiction
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is masterful at using their own media to develop a narrative.
And one of the literary devices they often use, is making things up.

The Iranians exaggerate. For example: They say that they have more weapons than they really have, or that they have new weapons. They say that they have attacked and hit targets which never happened and is all sheer fantasy. And they deny the damage or the extent of the damage to their infrastructure, military and population, all the time.

So, when Iran threatens revenge against Israel on the same day that they claim to have discovered, conquered and destroyed a Mossad house in Iraq – fake news antennae must go up.

Fact is, there are no such Mossad houses in Iraq to discover. The entire episode looks great on Iranian media and it makes Iranian leadership look strong for having avenged the Natanz strike, which Israel purportedly perpetrated, but it is a total fiction.

But fiction and fantasy never stops Iran.

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Israel Changes Tune in Involvement
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Ephraim Halevy is the former head of Israel’s Mossad.

Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility was struck with a cyber-attack. The attack turned out the lights in the facility. It literally turned off the electricity in the Iranian nuclear enrichment center.

Around the world fingers pointed at Israel. Leadership in Israel did not deny responsibility – nor did they claim responsibility. They did, however, publicly comment that Iran was due for a lesson.

Halevy had something to say about the entire situation. He said: "Apparently, those in Israel in the political leadership want [the attack] to be attributed to Israel. Therefore, it must be assumed that the attack was indeed carried out by those who are now suspected [of perpetrating it]"
He continued:

"We will make a big mistake if [we will think of Iran] as an opponent who has two left hands, that is not true."

When Ephraim speaks, we should all pay attention.

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Saudis Against Iran Talks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The talks in Vienna between Iran and the P-5+1 to kickstart the Iranian nuke deal are not pleasing everyone.

We know that Israel, for example, is very skeptical of the outcome of these talks.
So is Saudi Arabia.

Tariq al Humaid, a very popular Saudi columnist, wrote in the international paper of Saudi Arabia, Asharq al Awsat, that many people do not trust Iran. He wrote: “There is Gulf apprehension regarding the Vienna talks.” His comment should not come as a surprise. Iran and Saudi Arabia are arch enemies.

The 6 world leaders pushing the nuke deal will not pay much attention to Saudi Arabia’s analysis, just like they are not paying attention to Israel. But Iran is paying attention. And Iran is pleased that the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia are being ignored. It ups the Iranian advantage.

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Pfizer Not Good Against S-African Variant
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

According to a study done in Israel, the South African COVID variant can “breakthrough” the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

That is not good news. Actually, it is very bad news.

The study was composed of 400 unvaccinated people and 400 double vaccinated people. The result of the study is that people who were not vaccinated were 8 times safer against the South African variant than those who had been vaccinated.

The good news is that there is very little incidence of South African COVID in Israel.

In South Africa however, the variant is predominant.

This study has not yet been peer reviewed. But, the essential lesson to be learned is: do not use the Pfizer vaccine in South Africa.

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PM of Norway Fined For COVID
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The police and the justice department in Norway fined their prime minister for violating COVID restrictions after Prime Minister Erna Solberg held a party to celebrate her 60th birthday. Thirteen members of her family were in attendance.
Solberg was fined 20,000 Norwegian Crowns which comes to about $2,500.

The prime minister had apologized - but Norwegian leadership and the justice department knew that her apology was not enough. They knew that the country cannot have a situation where the there are two sets of rules.

That’s why they chose to fine Prime Minister Solberg and to make her punishment public. So they needed to fine her and make it public. Gatherings are limited to 10 people and they would tolerate no exceptions.

The irony of this situation is that Prime Minister has been on the front line insisting that people act responsibly during COVID.

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Iran in Lock-down
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced a 10-day lockdown. The announcement was made after a fourth wave of COVID hit the country hard, very hard. This information was made public by state media.

Using state media in this way is not at all typical of Iranian leadership. Under normal circumstances, Iran would not want outsiders to know the extent of their damage and the enormity of the threat. But COVID is not normal and they needed to inform the public of the shutdown so they bit the bullet and used the media for all to see.

The decision was made to shutter 23 of Iran’s 31 provinces for 10 days. Shuttering means no schools, no theater, no sports and the closing of all public gatherings.

Ramadan begins in the midst of the closure. This year, that means that there will be no families gathering together to break their fasts as is the custom.

The psychological pain of this closure will surely have a harsh impact on the people of Iran.

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US Give $235 Mil to Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In 2018 then-President Trump stopped all aid to the Palestininas.

Now things are about to change.

The Biden administration has announced that they have a plan to give $235 million to the Palestinians. This is the second time in one week that the Biden administration announced the granting of money to the Palestinians.

First, they promised $15 million. Their new plan calls for $150 million through the United Nations relief agency UNWRA, $75 million in U.S. economic support and $10 million in development funding. These figures came to light in a notice emailed by the administration to congressional offices.

The US State Department has said that the monies are legal and in line with US policy toward the Palestinians.

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Iran Meets w US about Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The P 5+1 met with Iran in Vienna. They met to take a look at the Nuke Deal.

The talks were successful and they decided to meet again in a few days. The P 5+1 are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany.

Iran and these major powers will continue to discuss ways to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.

Following the meeting, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi told Iran state television: "The talks in Vienna were constructive... our next meeting will be on Friday.”

He added that Tehran would not suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20% fissile purity in return for the release of $1 billion of its funds blocked in other countries because of U.S. sanctions reimposed on Iran since 2018.

Interesting. Iran is running this how and they are holding strong.

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Problems in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Jordan’s crown prince, the King’s half-brother Hamsa bin Hussein, was put under house arrest. An investigation against him was opened.

The visit by the head of the army to the home of the crown prince was made public for the entire country to witness. Everyone needed to see that King Abdullah does not tolerate any challenge to his leadership.

The crime Crown Prince Hamsa bin Hussein committed was posting an on-line serious critique of Jordanian leadership claiming that it was corrupt.

The back story is that, not too long ago, Prince Hamsa was removed from the line of succession after attempting to position himself for the kingship and maybe even ousting his half-brother King Abdullah.

When King Abdullah discovered Hamsa’s newest challenge to his leadership, the King’s hand was forced and he had to act to make an example.

The story is still developing. There are rumors being spread that the situation between these brothers is on the mend. Hamsa publicly signed a letter pledging support to the King.

There is little tolerance in Jordan for those who challenge the king. House arrest is getting off easy.

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Putin Signs Law He Can Run Until 2036
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Vladimir Putin signed a law that now allows him to run for president for two more terms.

His current term ends in 2024, so the new law would keep him in power until 2036.

If there was any doubt in anyone’s mind about the “democratic” (and I put democratic in quotes for a reason) nature of Putin and the country he leads, this is another cogent and essential example of his style and objectives.

Of course, he still needs to run for reelection and to win … but why would Putin change the constitution if he was not assured of a successful re-election bid.

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Sudan Repeals Israel Boycott
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Sudan repealed a law prohibiting any interaction with Israel. The boycott law, which was originally enacted in 1985, had prevented any trade with companies or citizens of Israel.

On October 23, 2020 Sudan and Israel normalized relations.

It is still unclear, however, what that entails. Sudan’s local press quoted ranking leaders as saying that they will not recognize Israel and send an ambassador. But that was probably just bluster.

It clearly looks like normalization means trade. It also probably means tech and military advice. And it certainly means agricultural and medical technology assistance.

Baby steps are still steps. Slowly, slowly, one at a time.

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Investment in Israel is Way Up
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Here is some very good news about investments in Israel.

Israeli cyber companies broke an all-time record and concluded the first quarter of 2021 having raised $1.5 billion in 17 different transactions.

Israel is in second place worldwide in the volume of investments made in cyber companies in the distribution of investments. First place goes to the United States.

Israel’s performance is a continuation of a 2020 trend, when investments in Israeli companies reached $2.9 billion and accounted for 31% of all cyber investments in the world.

These investments could help Israel return to normal after the devastating damage of the COVID pandemic.

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US Human Rights Report & Israel, PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The United States issues a Human Rights Report every year. The report is an update on the ongoing status of human rights across the world. This document is essential in understanding the status of worldwide human rights – and human rights violations, and in pinpointing those areas that the United States deems to be in need of more work, more money and more influence in order to bring about improved human rights.

Israel and the Palestinians are always mentioned in the Human Rights Report.
Under the Trump administration the chapter title dealing with their area was changed from “Israel and the Occupied Territories” to “Israel the West Bank and Gaza”.

The big question this year was: Would the Biden administration revert back to the Obama language in the Israel and the Palestinians chapter, or were they continuing with the Trump perspective on those areas?

The State Department clarified the issue: in some places in the body of the report it refers to the areas as “occupied”.

Ned Price, the US State Department Spokesperson said that the report: “does use the term ‘occupation’ in the context of the current status of the West Bank.”

Lisa Peterson is the highest level State Department official currently in the human rights bureau, she is the deputy secretary. Peterson explained the new / old terminology saying that the report generally uses geographical names and that “Israel, West Bank and Gaza” was easier and clearer for readers.”

So indeed there is a small and important change happening. Progress is progress.

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Yugoslavia to recognize
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Yugoslav’s new foreign minister, Donika Gervalla, gave an interview that made headlines in Israel and around the world.

Gervalla had just finished a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan. Erdogan was pressuring the Balkan nation to reconsider their diplomatic opening of relations with Israel and the opening of their embassy in Jerusalem.

In her interview with the online news site Kallxo.com she said “I believe that the issue of our embassy in Israel is a done deal. Why is it a done deal? Because we cannot get involved in diplomatic adventures to reconsider an issue that already has ended”.

Gervalla said Kosovo wants to strengthen ties with Israel but also wants to have “a good friendship, good ties with Palestinian authorities.”

Kosovo established diplomatic ties with Israel on Feb.1st of this year and earlier this month became the first European country and the first Muslim-majority country to establish an embassy in the western part of Jerusalem.

The Turkish president is, once again, stirring the pot – but Yugoslavia is not interested.


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Corruption in France
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Lest you think that only Israel has corrupt officials.

Former President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, has been convicted of corruption. He was sentenced to 3 years imprisonment - 2 of those years are suspended.
Sarkozy is the second former president in modern France to be convicted of corruption. The first is the late Jacques Chirac.

Sarkozy was convicted of offering a job in Monaco to Judge Gilbert Azibert in return for confidential information about an inquiry into allegations that he, Sarkozy, had accepted illegal payments from L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt for his 2007 presidential campaign.

The payments came to light while conversations between Sarkozy and his lawyer, Thierry Herzog, were wiretapped after Sarkozy left office. Those wiretaps were in relation to another investigation into Sarkozy about alleged Libyan financing of the same 2007 presidential campaign.
Vive la France.

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Iron Dome 10 Yrs Old
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Ten years ago, the Iron Dome defense system shot down its first rocket targeting an Israeli city.

The Iron Dome intercepted the rocket, launched by Hamas terrorists, midair.
It was nothing short of a miraculous achievement that then proceeded to give new life to the south of Israel.

Skeptics refused to believe that this defense system would be successfully deployed. The US Defense Department rejected the idea and the math behind it. They thought it would be too expensive, that the costs would outweigh the benefits.

But it did work. And it has brought a measure of security to those living and working in the southern part of Israel.

While it is not fool proof, the Iron Dome is a vast improvement over whatever defense systems Israel had once used. The system is constantly recalibrated to handle the changing nature of the threats against Israel.

When a terrorist’s rocket is shot into Israel, the Iron Dome will activate only if that rocket is going to land in a populated area. If the terrorist’s rocket is going to fall in Gaza or in an open field, there is no reason to waste money on shooting that rocket down. Each Iron Dome missile costs $30,000 to $40,000. There are eight missiles in a battery – if they are all deployed it would cost over $300,000.

The Iron Dome is a wonderful addition to the Israeli defense system. It is hard to believe that it has been ten years.

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Israel Yearns to be Boring
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Eretz Nehederet is the most successful political satire show in Israel. The television show is a smash - hit enormously funny and enormously popular. The show pokes fun at Israel, at Israeli leaders and at life in Israel. Nothing is off limits.

Eretz Nehederet, like all sature, is social and political commentary.
The name, Eretz Nehederet, means a “Wonderful Country”.

The star of Eretz Nehederet is Eyal Kitsis. He is quoted as saying that he wishes there wee less fodder for his show to feed on. He yearns for a more boring and stable government. Of course, he acknowledges, that would hurt the show. But it would be good for the country. The situation, as it now exists, makes for very good satirical material.

Katsis said "I would like us to finally have a stable government and make a boring program.”

Most Israelis would agree. But after a few episodes, they would certainly find their favorite program boring.


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Biden Giving Aid to PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Biden administration is restoring relations with the Palestinians. The first official move signaling this change in US policy came in the form of a speech by the US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

The ambassador spoke before the UN Security Council at their monthly meeting. She announced that the United States will be giving $15 million to the Palestinians for humanitarian assistance. Especially for food in “vulnerable communities”.

She also said that the Biden administration supports Israel and that Israel is often “unfairly singled out by one-sided resolutions and actions in international bodies.”
She said that too often, criticism of Israel “veers dangerously into antisemitism. Antisemitism, as with all forms of hate, works directly against the cause of peace.”

This entire turnaround is troubling. Despite the kind words and caring sentiment the UN ambassador expressed for Israel, the resuscitation of US / Palestinian relations will inevitably spin around and hurt Israel.

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Iran Hits Israel Ship
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran shot another missile at an Israeli tanker. It happened in the Arabian Sea. The tanker was hit and damaged.

The tanker is owned by an Israeli businessman and registered in the name of a Haifa company named XT Management. The ship was on its way to Tanzania from India. The attack took place between India and Oman.

A similar incident occurred to another tanker, called the Helios Ray, in the Gulf of Oman in February.

Israel is investigating and will determine two important things.

First, how to punish those responsible for theses attacks. Second. how to protect Israeli ships.

Punishing those responsible for these acts of terror might incentivize those making the decisions and calling the shots to stop these acts of terror and destruction against Israeli ships.

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Soccer A/S in Argentina
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In Argentina fans shouted “Chaca is coming along the road, killing the Jews to make soap.”

This is a direct anti-Semitic slur directed against Jews.
Chaca is short for Team Chacarita.

The ream was was preparing for a game against their long-time rival, Atlanta.
Atlanta, like Chaca, comes from the Villa Crespo neighborhood in Buenos Aires.
Many Jews live in this neighborhood.

But Atlanta has a long history of positive and open relations with their Jewish fans, their administrators and even some players. Jewish fans have supported Atlanta for years - ever since its founding in 1904.

This is not the first time a reference to soap has been made. In 2000, Chaca fans threw soap and Nazi flags at Atlanta fans. Then they chanted “the Jews were made of soap”.

In 1988 Argentina passed laws forbidding this hate speech, making it illegal and punishable by imprisonment. Yet, in certain circles, it persists.

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Israel's Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Today is election day in Israel. Four elections in two years.

It is expected that, this time around, there will be a very low voter turnout. As of noon, only 24% of voters had cast their ballots. It is hard to build voting enthusiasm when it looks like nothing more than a repeat performance for the fourth time in a row.

It appears that the results will be more of the same.

The final tally will not be in until Friday. Big winners, so far, are Netanyahu and Bennet and Religious Zionists. Big losers are Blue and White and Saar’s New Hope party.

The big question is: This time around, will Netanyahu have enough votes to forge a government of likeminded parties without compromising too much on his political platform.

FYI - anyone who was deluded or naďve enough to think that corruption charges would derail the sitting prime minister’s election, does not understand Israel. No one chose to vote against Netanyahu because of the charges against him.

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Israel Court - Teachers Must Vaccinate
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Tel Aviv Regional Labour Court ruled that an assistant teacher in a special education program who refuses to vaccinate against COVID and refuses to get tested can be barred from entering the school.

The court ruled that while the personal rights of the assistant teacher are important, those rights cannot encroach on the safety and security of the students and their families.

This case will certainly soon appear Israel’s Supreme Court. Hopefully, by then, the Israeli Knesset will have passed laws dealing with this issue so that the High Court will have a basis upon which to rule.

As of now, in Israel, the rights of the individual do not outweigh the right of the many. Teachers have the right to say “no” to both the vaccine and to COVID testing. But they cannot work in schools or in hospitals.

This is also established law in the United States – and not just as it relates to COVID vaccines. It is about other critical vaccines, as well. A good example is the response to an outbreak of polio, which was thought to have been eradicated in the United States, in the New York City area several years ago.


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Congress Invites Rivlin
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Both Houses of Congress have invited Israeli President Ruby Rivlin to address a joint session. The invitation is a farewell gesture to the Israeli president whose term of office ends on July 9th.

This is a wonderful swansong for Rivlin. It also – and perhaps more importantly, is an indication that there is still a strong bipartisan spirit of support for Israel in Congress.

COVID will be the determining factor in whether or not President Rivlin comes to Washington.

Reuven “Ruby” Rivlin has been a wonderful diplomat for Israel. He has fulfilled his role with grace and dignity. The role of an Israeli president is to generate non-partisan, worldwide support for Israel – and Rivlin has succeeded par excellence.

Most recently he travelled to Europe for talks with the heads of state from countries including France, Germany, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Portugal. He spoke to them about the plan of the ICC, the International Criminal Court, to prosecute Israel for war crimes.

Rivlin was very successful in swaying world opinion. Ruby Rivlin will be leaving large shoes for Israel’s next president to fill.

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Iran Threatens DC
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

According to an AP report, United States intelligence has discovered that Iran was planning a USS Cole-style attack on Fort McNair.

The intel, which comes from the NSA, the National Security Agency, also indicated that the US Army Vice Chief of Staff was a target.

Fort McNair is in Washington DC. Literally, it is in the nation’s capital. It is in closer proximity to the White house than the Pentagon or the CIA.

Fort McNair is also home to the National Defense University which includes the National War College. Included is the Capstone Program which brings 100 flag officers from 50 countries around the world to learn together.
As a target – it is prime. And that is why it was chosen by Iran.

The USS Cole was a US Navy destroyer situated in the Gulf of Aden in Yemen. In October of 2000 a small rubber boat filled with explosives pulled up alongside the destroyer and blew a huge hole in the ship. 17 sailors were killed.

A USS Cole-style attack is an attack against a significant US military target, This was a very serious threat.

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Contracting COVID Twice
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday, the highly respected medical journal Lancet published a very important peer reviewed article about re-infection from COVID.
The research was done in Denmark.

This research challenges the conventional wisdom that you cannot get COVID twice. The Denmark study puts numbers to the possibility of reinfection and to its risks.

The study divides people into two groups, those below 65 years of age and those older than 65.

If you are under 65, you have an 80% chance of recovery from a second COVID infection. If you are 65 or older, you only have a 47% chance of recovery if you contract COVID a second time.

The study explains that contracting COVID a second time is extremely uncommon.
They explain that new variants need to be studied. And they suggest that the new variants might be a reason for contracting COVD a second time.

Importantly, the study asserts that, should you contract COVID a second time, and if you are over 65 years old, it could very well be life threatening.

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Drone Deliveries in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel conducted a drone exercise on Wednesday. This was not a military program, instead, it was a test of commercial deliveries using small mini drones.

The test took place in the city of Hadera. It was computer controlled and managed from Haifa, which is 35 miles away.

The drones, released 20 at a time, delivered pizzas and other small items.

The skies of Israel are filled with other drones, with planes and with helicopters and even with paragliders. Because of all this air traffic, the rules of delivery drones state that they must fly under an altitude of 360 feet.

Israel’s delivery drones all have emergency parachutes in case of malfunctions.
Should there be a malfunction, the parachute will make certain the drone and the package and anyone or anything on the ground is not damaged.

The exercise was a success. It looks like drone deliveries are soon to become a reality for Israelis.

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Icholov Closes COVID Wards
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On Monday March 15, 2021 Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv closed their last COVID ward.

The 18 remaining patients were transferred to other non-COVID care units.

This is enormously significant.

Ichilov is the largest medical center serving Tel Aviv. It is one of the largest medical campuses in Israel. Closing their COVID wards signals that Israel is in the final stretch of this pandemic.

Fewer and fewer people are dying of COVID in Israel. Fewer and fewer are becoming critically ill and requiring hospitalization. Vaccinations have topped 5 million will hit 7 million in the next few weeks.

The lock downs, the quarantines, the strict enforcement of rules and restrictions have paid off in lives saved and a pandemic that has been contained.

Good going Israel.

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Israel to the ICC
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli group named Anshei Emet (the People of Truth) have taken the State of Israel to the Hague, also known as the ICC – the International Criminal Court.

This group alleges that Israel is forcing citizens to vaccinate and that forcing them to vaccinate is a form of abuse. They also assert that people have died from the vaccine. Their biggest argument is that the reaction to the shot is a form of abuse.

In reality, the numbers tell an opposite story.

Only 0.25% of those in Israel who received the Pfizer vaccine had any significant reaction. That number is practically 0.

The case is absurd. This group and their decision to bring the case to the Hague takes anti-vaxxers to a whole new – and dare I say ridiculous, level.

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Hackers Hack Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A hacker group successfully attacked an Israeli finance company. Now they are demanding a ransom of 1.9 million shekel. That’s about $570,000.

The group is called The Black Shadow.

The company they attacked is called KLS, a finance company that handles car payments.

The Black Shadow has begun to release the company’s private information on the web. They also deleted a significant amount of data.

This is not the first time The Black Shadow has cyber attacked an Israeli company.
Last December they successfully attacked Israeli Insurance company Shirbit. Following that attack the hacker group demanded - and received 200 Bitcoins which equaled $3.8 million.

KLS has refused to pay. They told The Black Shadow that they will not pay.

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Archeology in The MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A team of archeologists from Norway and France have discovered and unearthed a compound consisting of six churches and many isolation chambers. The remains are from the 5th century.

The finds are located in the Western desert. This dig further supports the idea that monastic life was commonplace in Christian religious life.

They found inscriptions. They found buildings that were cut into bedrock. They discovered that basalt stone as well as mud brick was used for building.

Archeological finds like this one are very helpful in our understanding of early Christian society.


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Sea of Galilee Nearly Full
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Just 18 months ago the water line in the Sea of Galilee was so dangerously low that it was below the bottom red line.

It was so low that pumping from Israel’s only freshwater lake was restricted to the bare minimum and nearly stopped. When the water level reaches the bottom red line, pumping must be restricted if not stopped.

Today, the Sea of Galilee is almost at full capacity. Israel is no longer in crisis for fresh water.

The Sea of Galilee was filled due to an unusual amount of rain and snow over the winter months.

If the water rises just a little more, the National Water Authority will open a dam and release water form the lake into the Jordan River. This is done in order to prevent flooding.

Imagine, six months ago water in Israel was at a dangerous low, today it is so high Israel can afford to siphon it off.

Israel needs water. For decades Israelis have been taught about the importance of water conservation. Water is so important for productive life and Israel has many plans to insure that the country continues to have fresh water.

Rain, of course, is not part of the plan but, thankfully, this year it arrived in the nick of time.


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Timeline for Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I have written about the upcoming elections in Iran that will take place on June 18th.

Now we are hearing from “experts” explaining that, because of those elections, the window for the United States to come to an agreement with Iran before their election is about 10 weeks. That is all - just 10 weeks. After the election, they explain, the new president who will almost certainly +be even more conservative than Rouhani, the current president, will not welcome an agreement.

That entire analysis is wrong.

Who is to say that after an agreement is cobbled together and signed with the current government of Iran within the next 10 weeks, the incoming government will not rip it to shreds if for no other reason than to prove that they do not support relations with the United States and with the West.

This is Iran we are dealing with!

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Waters to Stevie Wonder - Boycott Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Stevie Wonder will be awarded the Wolf Prize from Israel. As always, the award was announced by the Israeli President, Ruby Rivlin.

The Wolf Prize is awarded to artists and scientists. It’s quite impressive.

Not surprisingly, Roger Waters – a blatant and outspoken hater of the Jewish State, is asking Stevie Wonder to reject the prize. Waters is a singer, songwriter, musician and composer. He is a also rabid supporter of BDS and he never misses an opportunity to attack Israel or to use his fame and music popularity to force others to boycott Israel.

Waters has reached out to just about every single performer scheduled to come to Israel. He publicly calls them out and uses Twitter to embarrass them.

Thus far, Waters’ campaign has had only very limited success.

And Stevie Wonder is still scheduled to accept the award.

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Iran Bombed Israeli Embassy in India
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There was an explosion outside the Israeli embassy in New Delhi, India, this past January.

Until now it was thought that ISIS – which claimed responsibility in the aftermath of the explosion - had planned and executed the terror attack.

But India has now concluded that Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were behind the terror attack which was detonated by remote control.

A note, written in English was found nearby the site of the attack.

Turns out that the note was a deliberate attempt to mislead investigators.
According to the note, the attack was to avenge the deaths of several “martyrs”.
The martyrs listed on the note were Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander who was killed in a January 2020 United States drone strike; Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi militia commander who was killed along with Soleimani; and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of Iran’s nuclear program, killed in a November 2020 attack that Tehran has blamed on Israel.

The note also said warned that the attackers are watching and can strike at any time.

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Elections in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On June 18th, right around the corner, an election is scheduled in Iran. Candidates are starting to emerge.

One of the most likely candidates, and with an excellent chance of succeeding in this election, is named Saeed Mohammad. Mohammad is the director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He also runs the largest commercial enterprise in Iran called the Khatam al Anbiya Construction.

Mohammad has no political experience. But that will not sideline him. He is very close with the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei, the man who makes all decisions in Iran. In addition, his role in the IRGC gives him a great credential.
And he is also the employer of 10’s of thousands of people. Or he was – Mohammad just stepped down from that position in order to dedicate time to his run for the presidency.

Name recognition. A close connection to the Grand Ayatollah. An insider. Remember the name. Saeed Mohammad may very well become the next president of Iran.


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Israel Closes Kindergartens
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s ministry of education announced that over 500 kindergartens have been closed because of COVID. It is the largest number yet.

The kindergartens have been closed either because the children have been exposed to COVID or because their teachers have contracted COVID. In an effort to protect the teachers and the students and their families, the kindergartens had to be shuttered.

Anat Dadon, director of pre-school unions in Israel is quoted saying: "Parents are sending their children [to kindergarten] knowing they may be exposed to a carrier of the virus."

"We have not seen so many kindergartens forced to close and staff and children made to quarantine since the start of the pandemic."

The simple fact is that, in Israel, for the next few months, there will continue to be rolling closures of schools as students and teacher continue to test for COVID and some of them come back with positive test results.


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Dalia Lama Gets the Shot
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


Today the Dalai Lama got received his COVID 19 vaccine.

It was the first of the two vaccines he will get.

After receiving the shot, the 85 year old Tibetan spiritual leader spoke to the world.
He spoke to his ardent followers and to all who listen to him. He urged them all to be brave and to get the vaccine.

The Dalai Lama was the latest in a series of leaders - especially spiritual leaders, who are urging people to vaccinate. They are combatting a growing number of anti-vaxxers who have created conspiracy cults. Thee claim that COVID is a hoax.

They claim that the vaccine will cause damage to one’s health.

It is these conspiracy theories that are the real hoax. The Dalai Lama stood up and is helping to save the lives to his followers.


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Teaching Site Says Jews Killed Jesus
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A mother complained that the homework assignment for her 7 year old son depicted the Jews as killing Jesus.

As a result, the site that the homework was on took down the 19 pages dealing with Jews as the killers of their god.

On the site, under the title The Trial, there was the following quote: “The Jewish leaders wanted Jesus to be guilty. They found it difficult to find anything that he had done wrong even though they paid people to lie about him. Eventually they asked him if he was the Son of God. Jesus replied I am. This was enough. They said this was an insult to God. Jesus was taken before Pontius Pilate the Roman Governor.”

And it goes on.

In the Christian Bible, on the several occasions where it is written that Jesus says that he is the son of God, it is only inferred. He never actually says those words.

There are people who are teaching children to hate Jews because they are the killers of their god. It is medieval. But it is happening today.


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Assad Has COVID
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

President Assad of Syria and his wife Asma tested positive for COVID. Both the president and his wife are 55 years old.

Asma had cancer nearly three years ago. She was treated and has fully recovered. The presidential office said that they have only mild symptoms, are in isolation in the palace and will return to work in a few weeks.

Several important points have emerged with that report.

Telling us that Assad and his wife have COIVD is unusual – it is not the modus operandi in Syria. Not telling us how serious the cases are is also very telling. The Syrian president’s office lies all the time. They are not lying about the COVID, but they are most certainly lying about the symptoms.

As an example of a lie - according to Syrian health officials only 16,000 people in Syria have contracted COVID. That cannot be the case.

In a dictatorship, information about the president or about national health are almost never made public and what is made public is almost never accurate.
It will be interesting to see if any further details – truth, half truths or lies – will be released.


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Hoaxes About COVID
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is investing millions of shekels to combat fake news on the internet about the COVID-19 vaccine.

Over the past few weeks, as Israel has hit major milestones in vaccine numbers and prepares to vaccinate the remained of their still unvaccinated population, an online movement has developed spreading hoaxes and lies about the vaccine.

Those behind these hoaxes couch their lies in pseudoscience and medicine.
Israelis who have not yet been vaccinated have done so out of choice. They need to be convinced. And because of these fake news sites, it is harder to sway them.

Experts say that these hoaxers are endangering individual lives as well as the greater health and well being of the population of the nation.

500,000 Israelis over the age of 50 still have not been vaccinated. They will get sick and some will die - simply because they were told lies about the vaccine.
Websites quoting real Israeli medical experts are now on counter websites. In simple terms, they explain the science behind the vaccines. They are debunking the myths. Hopefully, they will be saving lives.

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Agreement Btw US & Israel on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


Most great agreements are hammered together behind closed doors.

Announcements of the final product are much more impressive when details of the day-to-day bickering inherent in forming an agreement are kept in the shadows.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced that the United States and Israel have come to an agreement about Iran.

Both countries agreed that there be no surprises. That means that Israel will not attack Iran without tell the United States in advance. And the United States will not open doors for Iran or enter negotiations or begin a new strategy without letting Israel know in advance.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said: "If anyone thought the Americans would run to make an agreement with Iran, up until now it did not happen, and I hope it does not happen in the future".


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Israel Launching Regional Security Pact
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has launched an effort to create a regional defense pact.

The idea is to come to strategic agreements with numerous countries in the region, bonding together as a group, enabling group members to better protect themselves from aggressive outliers.

This defense pact will function similarly to NATO. If one country is attacked it is, by treaty, seen as an attack on all member nations.

The plan was reported by KAN, a Hebrew language radio network in Israel. It credited Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi with the idea for the plan and the follow through.

So far, the players joining Israel are UAE and Bahrain. I predict that both Egypt and Jordan will follow suit.

The outliers that will be isolated in this defense pact are Iran and Syria.

This could be a very useful – and intimidating, defense tool.

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Prof Fired for A/S Tweets
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Nothing surprises me anymore when it comes to anti-Semitism.

A science professor at Ferris State University in Michigan named Thomas Brennan was fired because of his tweets. There is no hiding it – his tweets were outright anti-Semitic.

The Torch, which is the university student newspaper at Ferris State, printed a screenshot of one of his tweets. It read: “Covid19 is another jewish revolution.”

At the time, the university’s president, David Eisler, said the school was “shocked and outraged by these tweets.” He added that the tweets were “extremely offensive and run counter to the values of our University and our commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion.”

In November, Brennan was placed on administrative leave until an investigation was concluded.

As a defense, Brennan explained that he thought there were people invading his body and mind. He claims that he was not in control when he wrote those tweets.


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Iran Attacks Israeli Ship
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 27, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

This week an Israeli cargo ship, the Helios Ray, was hit by 2 missiles while above sea level in the open sea. The shop docked in Dubai in order to repair the holes.
The attack was almost certainly the work of Iran.

Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi said: "This past weekend we received a reminder from one of the biggest threats in the region, who reminded us that Iran is not only a nuclear threat, but a spreader of terrorisms which carries out terrorist acts and actions against civilian targets."

Iran has identified a very weak link in Israeli security – Israeli shipping in the open seas. Cargo ships at sea are totally defenseless. Israeli ships flying the Israeli flag have only limited security.

This ship, the Helios Ray, was not flying an Israeli flag. It travelled under a Bahaman flag. But Iran knew its origin.

Israel must figure out how to defend ships on the high seas.

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Gantz Visits Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The head of Israel’s Blue White Party, Benny Gantz, met with King Abdullah of Jordan on Friday.

The purpose of the meeting was to point out to Israelis that Prime Minister Netanyahu was not welcome in Amman. Bibi has never successfully developed or expanded relations with Jordan.

Gantz is a serious underdog in the upcoming March 23rd elections.

This tete a tete in Jordan was an attempt by Gantz to illustrate how much more likeable to the Arab world he is than Bibi Netanyahu is.

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Israel Gives Vaccines to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

There have been some very interesting developments on the COIVD vaccine front.

One of the most fascinating is mostly speculation - but it is still, very plausible.
Syria received the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. It was given to them by a “friendly nation.” That was how Syrian Health Minister Hassan Ghabash put it, as reported by the official Syrian media outlet SANA.

Now here is where it gets interesting and speculation begins: Russia was running interference and playing mediator between Israel and Syria to swap prisoners for an Israeli woman who accidently wandered into Syria.

To sweeten the pot, Israel bought the Russian vaccine and had the Russians deliver the vaccine to Syria. So who’s the “friendly nation”? That would be Russia.

The private equity company in Russia handling the sale and distribution of the Sputnik V vaccine would not comment.

We may never know the truth or learn more details. But quite possibly, Israel bought the vaccine from Russia and had it sent to Syria in exchange for the release of an Israeli woman.

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Vaccine Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I call it Vaccine Diplomacy.

Israel is giving COVID vaccines to countries that have already moved, or promised to move, their embassies to Jerusalem.

Israel is giving vaccines to those countries that have opened their diplomatic doors to them.

The ability to vaccinate your citizens, when vaccines are expensive and difficult to come by, is of the great benefits of creating relations with Jewish State.

Honduras, Guatemala and the Czech Republic will all benefit from Israel’s Vaccine Diplomacy.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that: “Our stock is above and beyond what Israelis need; we have more than enough to help out.”

More countries are in line to receive COVID vaccines from Israel – and more and more vaccines are arriving in Israel.

Pfizer was, for a long time, the only vaccine administered in Israel. That’s because Israel agreed to transmit to all the details of the public rollout to Pfizer, allowing the drug company to use Israel as their test country.

Now however the Moderna has arrived. And Israel has more than enough vaccine, allowing them to be generous to their “friends” in need.

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Elections in Iran June 18
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Most people have not marked the date on their calendars, but on June 18th there will be a presidential election in Iran.

The present government, which is run by “moderate” Rouhani will be replaced by – who knows. The field is full of conservatives. Included in the roster of contenders is Irani’s current Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif.

It is too soon to predict the outcome of the election for two simple reasons.
Reason number one is that the Supreme Leader has not yet made his opinion public. And as we all know, in the end it is The Grand Ayatollah who decides who wins an election.

Reason number two is that the only issue of significance in Iran right now is the nuclear question which is all about sanctions and the economy. Until the Biden administration puts their plan of action into play, neither the candidates nor current
Iranian leadership will be able to respond.
We must all be patient and wait.

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Monitor World Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 22, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is important to monitor the activities of leaders of allied countries, not just the actions of our enemies. Their travel and their health can be very telling.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is recovering from a successful surgical operation. The report was issued by the state news agency.

The Crown Prince underwent laparoscopic surgery for appendicitis in the King Faisal Specialist Hospital in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

This is very good news from all points of view.

Most important is that the Crown Prince was quickly diagnosed and that he was brought to a local hospital where a successful and quick surgery was performed.
This shows a change in Saudi policy. In the past, the Crown Prince would have been flown to another nation for his surgery.

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Israel's Cure for COVID
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Enlivex is an Israeli biotech company specializing in immunotherapy. The company is working on a cure for COVID. They just completed Phase II of trials and the results are very promising.

The drug Enlivex is testing and improving is called Allocetra.

In this second stage, sixteen patients who were all in severe or critical condition survived a 28 day experimental Phase II treatment. At the end of the trial, two of the sixteen patients were in still in critical condition and on ventilators. The other fourteen patients were fully recovered, healthy and released from the hospital.
The average duration of hospitalization after receiving Allocetra, for those who were discharged, was 5.3 days.

In the Phase I trial of the drug, five patients were all in severe condition when they started receiving Allocetra. Their average stay in the hospital was 10 days and they all recovered.

The most significant finding in this study is the improvement that was seen from the first to the second trial. Nearly a 50% improvement. And the time spent in the hospital once the drug was administered went from ten days to five.

There is hope.

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Arrest the Rioters
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The rioters who broke into the Capitol on January 6th are, slowly, slowly, all being arrested.

The rioter who sat in Mike Pence’s seat in the Senate and who shouted and posted horrific Jew hatred saying that the Jews control the government and Israel controls governments around the world has been arrested.

His name is Christian Secor. His internet name is “Groyper.” He follows and supports white supremacists. He has praise for shooters who spray their bullets across crowds and murder innocent people and for the neo-Nazi rally that was held in Charlottesville, VA in 2017. His web-posts are littered with racist Jew hatred and with conspiracy theories.

The Department of Justice has prioritized their agenda. Fighting extremism is high on their list.

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Israel's Nano Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


Tel Aviv University launched a nano satellite from Virginia. The satellite is, as the name implies, tiny. It is only 4 inches by 4 inches by 12 inches and weighs just over 5 lbs.

This nano satellite will orbit the earth at an altitude of 250 miles, racing at a speed of 5 miles per second which puts it at a speed of 17,150 mph (27,600 kph). An entire orbit of the earth will occur every 90 minutes.

Tel Aviv University’s nano satellite entered orbit on a NASA supply ship on its way to the international space station. It split off into orbit when it hit its proper altitude.

This is truly remarkable. The technology was created by a few engineers in a university lab - not by a multi-billion dollar company with hundreds of engineers and physicists.

We are witnessing the future of satellites and it is a great equalizer. It is called “New Space technology” as opposed to “Old Space Technology”.
And Israel is on the cutting edge of this technology.


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Chief Rabbi Fires Judge-Refuses to Vaccinate
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Chief Rabbi David Lau suspended a rabbinic judge who serves on the conversion court.

As president of Supreme Rabbinical Courts, Rabbi Lau has the authority to suspend judges for behaviors deemed inappropriate. This judge refuses to take the COVID vaccine.

In a statement issued by Rabbi Lau, he wrote: “It is forbidden for a person to damage his own body and all the more so that of someone else”.

Lau said that the dangers of COVID-19 are a verifiable fact and that any dangers inherent in the vaccine are uncertain, and that it is, therefore, an obligation to get vaccinated.

He explained: “Someone who does not get vaccinated is not only likely to harm himself but is also likely to harm someone else.”

According to the Chief Rabbi, protecting one’s health allows people to “fulfil our obligations in a world of significance … Someone who does not fulfill this command rejects the good that God granted his world by giving us the possibility of getting out of the distress caused by the coronavirus.”

According to Jewish law, Rabbi Lau is correct. According to Israeli law, I’m not sure if suspending the rabbi for these reasons is legal.

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Israel Warns Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has sent a very clear message to Hezbollah.

During a single, 24-hour period, Israel engaged in an exercise during which the Israeli air-force attacked 3,000 targets.

The targets were all essential infrastructure and military sites. They hit bridges, electric grids, airports, arms depots and underground command and control centers.

This is the first air-force drill of its kind. It was so big and so real.
Israel carried out this one-of-a-kind exercise in public. In an almost unprecedented move, the exercise was broadcast to the media.

Israel was transmitting a message to Hezbollah both through the air and through the air waves. The message was clear. Israel is prepared to respond to any attack or act of aggression from Lebanon.


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Rabbis From Arab Lands
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The rabbis of fourteen Arab countries have created an alliance.

Israel’s Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Yossef endorsed the new group which is named the Alliance of Rabbis in Islamic States. The chairman of the alliance is Rabbi Mendy Chitrik, the Chabad representative in Turkey.

Rabbi Chitrik explained the background behind this alliance and said: “The establishment of this alliance to unite all the Jewish communities in these places with the recognition of government officials in each state is very welcome and will assist in the provision of Jewish needs of the members of these different communities.”

The fourteen countries participating in this alliance are: Tunisia, Morocco, Uganda, Nigeria, Kosovo, Albania, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Uzbekistan, North Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates. Additional members are the Russian Muslim-majority republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan.

According to Rabbi Chitrik: “Our purpose is to advance Jewish life in these countries and focus on Jews who still work and live in the Muslim world … It is important for us to have our voice heard in countries where we live, so we work with government officials to maintain the Jewish past and sustain Jewish life in the present.”

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Iran Arrests Synagogue Thieves
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 15, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran arrested a gang of thieves as they were tunneling into an ancient synagogue in Urmia, a city in the north western region of the country.
Urmia is the 10th largest city in Iran.

The gang’s plan was to steal synagogue treasures and then to sell them.

In the past, it was Torah scrolls that were stolen from synagogues in Iran. In one case, a Torah was found and returned to its rightful synagogue – all by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

It was the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that discovered the tunnels and arrested the thieves.

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Israeli Borders & Drug
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 14, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s borders with her neighbors are, first and foremost, security risks.

They are also the point of entry for illegal drugs.

When an Israeli soldier was injured in shootout on the Egyptian border, the reason was clear. The Egyptian army and drug smugglers were shooting at each other when the Israelis arrive. The soldier was not hit by a bullet, but by shrapnel.

In the end, the drug smugglers were stopped.

Most drugs enter Israel through its borders, very often from the Egyptian border.
Bedouins excel at drug smuggling. For Bedouins, borders do not exist. Crossing borders and delivering product is not a violation of Bedouin tradition.

This tradition must be broken.


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Israel Gives Gas To Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel has signed on to an agreement to import natural gas to Gaza.

The agreement was signed between Israel, Qatar, the United Nations and the European Union. The deal was brokered by Qatar.

The agreement has two parts.

Part one involves Israel providing gas to the Palestinian Authority.

Part two includes the construction of a pipeline from Israel to the Gaza Strip. The European Union and Qatar will allocate money for the pipeline.

Israel has already signed contracts with Egypt and Jordan, so it makes sense that they should supply natural gas to Gaza.

It is hard to imagine, but Israel is now a major player in the supply of natural gas.


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Herzl 150 years
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 12, 2021
I’ve Been Thinking:

Friday February 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Theodor Herzl’s spectacular work. Der JudenStaat. was published in February of 1896.

In this pamphlet Herzl presented his plan for changing the Jewish people through the creation a state. Herzl argued that a state will transform the Jewish people.

The title Der Judenstaat is most often mistranslated. Whereas as “The Jewish State” is the translation we most often here, it is fundamentally a wrong translation of Herzl’s idea. The best translation of Der Judenstaat is the “State of Jews”.

Herzl wanted Jews to come together, he wanted to create a mini-Switzerland in the Middle East. Herzl did not want a state imbued with Judaism.

Herzl proposed that, rather than one language, all languages be spoken in the new state. That way, he felt, it would bring the culture of the world to the new state.
He warned that two languages should not be spoken.

Those languages were Hebrew and Yiddish.

About Hebrew he said: who among us knows enough Hebrew to order a train ticket. And About Yiddish he said: Yiddish is the language of the ghetto, the new state is a rejection of the ghetto.

Herzl actually went to the Sultan of Turkey and offered to balance his books in exchange for giving Jews land in Palestine. Obviously, the deal never went through.

Theodor Herzl is the father of modern Zionism. This year commemorates the 125th anniversary of one small publication that changed the world. Not just the Jewish world, the entire world.

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Gaza Has Re-Armed
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza have completely rebuilt their military apparatus in the years since their last major conflict with Israel in 2014.

According to Israeli estimates Hamas now has:
7000 rockets, 300 anti-tank missiles, 100 anti-aircraft missiles, 30,000 soldiers and 400 naval commandos.

Islamic Jihad has:
6,000 rockets, dozens of drones, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and 400 naval commandos.

This is not good news.

The border between Israel and Gaza is 30 miles long and very problematic. In 2014 alone, Israel discovered and destroyed 20 terrorist tunnels going from Gaza into Israel.

With each passing year, the threats increase.


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Crazy Ideas About COVID
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I’ve Been Thinking:
Israel has been a beacon to the world on how to best deliver the COVID vaccine to millions of people.

And yet, there are still those who DO NOT want to receive the shots.
Vaccine evaders tout pseudo-science and pseudo experts and parrot claims about the dangers of taking the vaccine.

There are rabbis and community leaders and people with influence who advise that the vaccine leads to death and that COVID is, really, not so bad.

Rumors are spreading that the vaccine is actually a tool of the government used to track every citizen and therefore, DO NOT vaccinate.

It’s ludicrous. But there are believers.

Israel is spending millions of dollars to educate anti-vaxxers. Proponents of this idea are very slick, they couch their message in great presentations. But performances aside, their premise is incorrect.

The numbers are unclear. No one knows exactly how many people are refusing COVID vaccines, but every one of them can and will endanger countless other people.

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TEVA to Help Produce Vaccine
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 9, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Kare Schultz, the CEO of Teva Pharmaceuticals, announced that the company has been approached by, and they have approached the manufacturers of, COVID vaccines to help produce more product.

Demand for the COVID shot is tremendous. And that demand is only increasing.
Every country in the world needs to have their residents inoculated and creators of the vaccines need more and more vaccine. They cannot keep up with the need and so they are looking for help.

Teva is an international company. It was created in Israel, it manufactures in Israel and Israel is one of its major centers, especially in R&D.

This is a good idea. The shortage of vaccines is due to inability to produce enough vaccine fast enough.

A contract between Teva, the largest producer of generic drugs in the world, with whichever company needs the help, will be a win-win for each and every one of us.


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Iran's New Boats
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 8, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media has reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has 340 new, small, attack boats.

Some of the boats are from England and they are called Bladerunner.

Some are from China and are called “China Cat”.

Some are from North Korea and are called Taedong -B. These are attack boats with the capability of going under water.

Some of the boats were filmed and photographed. Some had drones attached to them. Others had rocket launchers attached.

Part of the strength of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard comes from their fleet of small boats that travel under the radar. An additional 340 attack boats would be a massive upgrade to their fleet.

But - many analysists are doubting the veracity of the claim as reported by Iranian media. Some doubt that all of the 340 attack boats are new. Others doubt that there are even 340 of them at all.

It might all be a big fake. Iran enjoys the game of intimidation.

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Biden Says No About Lifting Iran Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

All it took was a single word – and that word was NO.

President Biden said NO, the United States will not lift sanctions against Iran until after Iran stops enriching uranium in violation of the 2015 Nuclear Deal.

Before the US president made his intentions clear, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and the Supreme Leader Khamenei both said that they will not stop enriching unless the United States lifts the sanctions. They both asserted that there should be no preconditions.

The Supreme Leader said: "This is the definitive and irreversible policy of the Islamic Republic, and all of the country's officials are unanimous on this, and no one will deviate from it."

It looks like we have an “Iranian standoff.”

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David Schoen Kiddush HaShem
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The lead defense lawyer for former President Donald Trump in his second Senate impeachment trial is David Schoen.

Schoen is an orthodox Jew and he requested that the proceedings halt from Friday evening through Saturday evening, during the Sabbath.

The request, which was granted by Senator Chuck Schumer, also Jewish but not as observant a Jew as Schoen, raises several questions. One of those questions is about how long will the trial actually take? Will it take over 4 days – an interesting question given that the Senate is not scheduled to meet during the week known as President’s Week?

From the Jewish perspective, the appointment of Schoen to lead attorney is a tremendous “Kiddush Hashem”, an act which elevates and highlights the beauty of Judaism and God.

It is a clear demonstration that accommodations can and should be made for Sabbath observers and that Sabbath observers can and should request the accommodations. It is a clear demonstration that being a Sabbath observer should not be thought of as a professional hindrance.

Schoen did not make his request of the Senate at the last minute, he let them know upfront. Respect is a two-way street.


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ICC Sides w the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 5 , 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have always felt secure about imploring the international community to plead their case and to defend them.

Their use of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague is a perfect example. The International community - and especially the ICC, is a reflection of the thinking and the tone of power as it is set on the international scene.

For 4 years under the Trump presidency, the Palestinians and their cause were sidelined. And for the past year even their fellow Arabs relegated Palestinian issues to the margins.

Things changed once Joe Biden took office. And now the Palestinians are making certain not to miss this opportunity. Not waiting for the result of Israeli elections scheduled for March 23rd, the Palestinians have mounted a diplomatic full court press in Europe.

They are also pursuing Israel by way of the ICC. And the ICC has ruled that they now have jurisdiction over the Palestinian territories.

Israel needs to clearly show where they stand - especially on the issue of Palestinian statehood.

For years Israel embraced ambiguity. It was safe. But because of the changes in the White House, real decisions are going to be forced upon the region. In order to properly respond, Israel must know its options and plan adequately and appropriately.

This is not just important, it is crucially important.

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Royal Cloth Found in Desert
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

A fragment of royal purple cloth, dating to 1000 years BC, was recently discovered in the Israeli desert, near the Dead Sea, in a place called Slaves Hill.

The dig in which the cloth fragment was unearthed has been dated to the reign of King David.

The royal purple color of the cloth is officially known as argaman. Cloth of that color, which came from a murex sea snail, was more valuable than gold. The color does not change over time. It does not fade. 3000 years later the purple is the same purple.

The textiles made their way from the Mediterranean coast where the snails were caught to Jerusalem where the clothing was worn.

This small fragment is proof that there was much more interaction between geographic areas and socio-economic groups than historians and archaeologists had thought. It is now clear that people of the rural desert and royalty must have interacted.

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PA Plants Trees for Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 2, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has begun planting trees to memorialize terrorists.

The PA decided to plant trees so that they can “sanctify” terrorists and make certain that they “eternally remain in our hearts”.

According to an advisor to Abbas: “[t]he initiative… honors the Martyrs, who are the most ‎precious thing we have in our history”‎

The father of a terrorists expressed his pleasure at this initiative and said:“Every day we will grow a tree, every day we will grow a Martyr”.

The list of people the PA has chosen to honor with trees is astonishing – and abhorrent. They include:

“Self-sacrificing fighter Martyr Dalal Mughrabi” - who led the mass-murder of 37 Israeli ‎civilians, including 12 children.

“Martyr commander Fathi Shaqaqi” - founder of the terror organization Islamic ‎Jihad. ‎“Martyr commander Salah Khalaf” – who planned the massacre of 11 Israeli ‎athletes during the Olympic games.

Thank you to PMW, Palestinian Media Watch, for their descriptions of these Palestinian terrorists and for bringing this initiative to our attention and to the attention of the world.

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France Suspends Hosts Who Interviewed Is Amb
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s ambassador to France, Daniel Saada, was interviewed on BEUR FM radio.

BEUR FM is a French national station that caters to the North African community throughout France. They broadcast in French, in Arabic and in other Berber languages.

Saada was interviewed by two hosts on a show that discussed the Abraham Accords and especially, the new relationship between Israel and Morocco.
The two hosts were suspended and sanctioned for hosting the interview with the Israeli ambassador. The hosts were stunned.

Legal proceedings have now commenced against the station for illegally suspending and sanctioning the hosts. This is most certainly a form of discrimination.

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Iran is Playing Games to Win
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 31, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The “Iran and the Nuclear Deal” game is on.

President Trump withdrew from the Nuke Deal in 2018. Three years later the new US administration, under President Biden, is excited about getting back to the negotiation table.

Don’t expect this to be easy, as much as Iran wants it and as much as Biden wants to make it happen.

Iran’s foreign ministry has flat out rejected changing participation in the negotiations. This was in response to France’s President Emmanuel Macron suggestion to bring Saudi Arabia along to the table.

Iran responded saying: "The nuclear accord is a multilateral international agreement ratified by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which is non-negotiable and parties to it are clear and unchangeable.”

Iran knows that France and the rest of the Western world want to stack the deck against them. The Saudis would join with Western nations and become a force against Iran.

Iran was correct to reject Saudi participation in the talks. I don’t often say that Iran is correct.


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World Watches Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 30, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The world is learning about COVID and the COVID vaccine from Israel. People world over are watching what happens in the Jewish state.

It is hard to imagine, but in Israel right now, 40% of all new COVID infections are found in school aged youth. Another 40% of new infections are found in the Hareidi population - which composes only 11% of the population.

The need for ventilators has increased six-fold for people between 40 and 60 years of age. 17 patients under 40 years old are now on ventilators. Another 25 people under 40 are on ECMO which is a heart / lung machine. It is the last hope these people have for recovery.

Israel is making all their numbers public to help the world understand how to confront this killer virus.

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Jordan King Demands Israel Vaccinate
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 29, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Jordan’s King Abdullah used his time in Davos, attending the World Economic Summit, attacking Israel for not vaccinating the Palestinians.

The King’s attack was not that Israel was not vaccinating Israeli Arabs, but rather, that Israel was they not vaccinating the 2.8 million Palestinians living under
Palestinian control in the West Bank and the 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza.

Here is the problem. Palestinian leadership has not asked Israel for vaccines. And actually, according to the Oslo Accords, the Palestinians are responsible for their own healthcare.

And there is an even bigger issue here. For weeks, Palestinian leadership has been working to get the vaccine from Russia through the Sputnik V vaccine program. PA leadership has also been insisting that they are going through the UN to get their vaccines. And they have repeatedly said that their program will begin in February.

So why was the King of Jordan attacking Israel in January?

The simple answer is that attacking Israel is an easy way to deflect personal responsibility. Attacking Israel unifies all those who hate Israel.


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Gantz Speaks to Austin
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 28, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, and his US colleague Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, had a phone conversation on Thursday.

Obviously, Gantz congratulated Austin on assuming his new position as US Secretary of Defense. Gantz emphasized how he was looking forward to continuing the spectacular relationship that has been in place for decades between the countries.

They also spoke about Iran – an area of potential tension.

Gantz clearly stated that Iran is a serious threat to the region and especially to Israel. He emphasized the importance of working together on issues concerning Iran and the importance of coordinating information and sharing strategy.

There was no comment from the United States.

Interestingly, as of this writing, Biden and Netanyahu have yet to speak.

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Holocaust Survivors Die of COVID
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 26, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

In Israel, 900 Holocaust survivors have died of COVID. 5,300 Holocaust survivors contracted the deadly virus. Those are powerful numbers.

As of now there are only 179,600 Holocaust survivors living in Israel. 850 survivors have lived to the age of 100. 66% of Israel’s Holocaust survivors are women.

Imagine the indignity of surviving the horrors of Nazism and Hitler’s murder machine only to succumb to COVID.

Everyone who gets COVID got it from someone who was not careful.

Think about that!


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Dubai is COVID Infected
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 25, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, was thought of as an escape from COVID.

People from all over the world went to Dubai for vacation. In Dubai there was no COVID – or, at least, people acted as if there was no COVID. There was dancing and partying and shopping.

In Dubai, you had fun. And then you went back home.

But in Dubai, all was not as it seemed, not as people wanted it to be.

240,000 ex-patriots from the United Kingdom live in Dubai. And among their friends who came to visit and party, there were COVID carriers. And they brought the new COVID variant with them.

Most countries banned flights to and from the United Kingdom. But Emirates Air flew five flights daily from Heathrow, London to Dubai.

Israel, too, was flying back and forth from Dubai. Some of those flights were even offset by government business assistance programs.

The irony! In the midst of COVID lockdowns, when only Israelis could enter or leave their country, Israel was sponsoring flights to a hotbed of COVID.

Several experts watching events unfold dubbed the Israeli / Dubai connection a ticking timebomb. They are so right.

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Modern Sandy Koufax
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 24, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Elie Kligman is a highly desired baseball recruit from Arizona.

A high-school senior, Kligman is regarded as one of the best baseball players in Arizona. There is serious interest from Division I universities and he is, of course, looking towards the majors.

Kligman is Jewish. Kilgman does not play on Shabbat. Friday night and Saturday games are not even an option.

In a story that ran on Chabad.com, Kligman is quoted as saying: "I have the mindset of, ‘This is what I am doing for Judaism, and this is what I am doing for baseball.’ Once the sun goes down on Friday night, it’s not a debate for me, [celebrating Shabbat] is just what I am doing … When you are a proud Jew, people respect when I tell them I’m not going to play on Friday night and Saturday.”

Kligman is still a teenager. He is also a Jewish hero. Not yet as popular or famous as Sandy Koufax who refused to play in the World Series on Yom Kippur, Elie Kligman won’t play on any Shabbat of Yom Tov.

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Hezbollah Drones
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 23, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

On a recent Friday morning, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon launched a drone into Israel.

Israel monitored the entire launch.

The drone passed into Israeli territory in the Western Galilee near Kibbutz Hanita, which is located 150 yards (450 ft) into Israel and it was there that the drone was shot down.

Israel collected all the parts and bits and pieces of the drone for analysis. There were no weapons but, of course, there were cameras.

Hezbollah is attempting to test Israel and Israel’s defense capabilities. Hezbollah also want to show Israel that they, too, have drones.

Iran has been extremely creative in their drone activities and Iran is helping Hezbollah advance their drone operations.

Watch and wait. Hezbollah will be using more and more drones as the days go by.

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Iran Likes Biden
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 21, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is happy that Joe Biden is the new president of the United States. No surprise there.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is so pleased with the potential he sees in the new administration that he took the liberty of offering the new US president some advice.

Rouhani urged US President Biden to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Rouhani delivered his message in a televised cabinet meeting. He said: "The ball is in the U.S. court now. If Washington returns to Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, we will also fully respect our commitments under the pact … U.S. President Donald Trump's political career is over today and his 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran has completely failed.”

Iran wants to get back to the good old days before Trump.
It’s too early to tell what direction the Biden administration will take.

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Blinken Has History
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 20, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

During his Senate nomination hearing Tony Blinken, the Biden nominee for Secretary of State, revealed some very significant foreign policy ideas on the part of new administration.

Blinken wants to push for the Two-State Solution between Israel and the Palestinians and he wants to restart relations with Iran Russia and China.

This is what he said to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: "When we're not engaged, when we don't lead, then one of two things happen: either some other country tries to take our place, but probably not in a way that advances our interests or values. Or no one does, and then you get chaos … Either way, that does not serve the American people."

There is no doubt that if Blinken passes committee’s scrutiny he will be the one directing the Biden administration’s foreign policy.

Tony Blinken has extensive foreign policy experience. Part of that experience includes making nice with Iran - it is a part of his philosophy.

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Charedi Leader Finally Shouts
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 19, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Finally, someone with real bona fides and credentials in the Chareidi (ultra orthodox) community is calling out Chareidi leaders, calling them irresponsible and guilty of aiding in the deaths of their followers. He accused them of denying COVID and not taking the deadly pandemic seriously.

Yehudah Meshi Zahav is the founder of ZAKA, a volunteer emergency medical
organization that unhesitatingly rushes in after accidents and terrorist attacks. ZAKA members are true heroes.

After losing both his mother and brother to COVID, Meshi Zahav gave an interview to YNET. He said: "This is our leaders' fault. I say this with heavy heart, I think they're worse than Holocaust deniers. After all, Holocaust deniers deny history, and here, they're denying the present.”

"What's wrong with those leaders? How can they say, 'our hands did not spill that blood?' There are people around here who are suspected of spilling blood, even if people call them 'rabbis'. There isn't a single neighborhood, building, or home without at least one victim.

"Forty-four people have died in the last 24 hours, 44 families whose entire worlds fell apart, 44 families for whom nothing will ever be the same again - and we played it down. Can’t they see? Each one of us is literally a ticking time bomb.”

And finally, he said: "Their obituaries shouldn't say, 'rest in peace,' but 'may the Lord avenge their blood' instead. Hearing [coronavirus patients'] cries in coronavirus wards, it's heart-wrenching. There is no one there to hear them, and I am sitting there, watching ambulance after ambulance taking out the dead."

Yehudah Meshi Zahav is to be applauded.

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Israel Demands Turkey Shut Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 18, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is showing strength and character.

Jerusalem issued a statement to Turkey about normalizing relations.
Israel made it clear that there can be no normalizing of relations between the countries until and unless Turkey shuts down their support and sponsorship of Hamas.

Turkey enables Hamas to organize their activities.

Turkey permits Hamas the ability to coordinate their terrorist operations out of Istanbul.

From Turkey Hamas recruits and finances much of their operation in Gaza. They transfer funds from Istanbul to Gaza and their money is protected in Turkey.

Israel has always had a weak spot for countries wanting to normalize relations with them. Israel would typically look the other way or even totally capitulate in order to accommodate the other country and get them to “like” the Jewish State.

Standing strong and making demands on Turkey is a major step for Israel.
Israel is showing maturity and wisdom.

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Saudis Welcome Qatar back
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 17, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I’ve Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has announced that they are opening an embassy in Qatar.

The announcement was thrown out as a nonchalant comment about the opening of new Saudi embassies by Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan.

The Saudi foreign minister was speaking to journalists in Riyadh when he was asked about embassy re-openings.

This revelation signals that relations between Qatar and the other Sunni countries are on the mend. That’s big news because Qatar was isolated from the other Sunni countries after they sided with Iran against the other Sunni nations.

Now it looks like that the divide is narrowing and that Qatar is coming back into the community of Sunni Gulf nations.

It is clear that the Trump initiative in the Middle East was successful. Iran was sidelined and now Qatar wants to come back to the security of the Sunni fold, but many in the Sunni world are still skeptical of their real intentions.

Qatar’s move to side with Iran caused serious pain to the Sunni community. But if Saudi Arabia is willing to trust them other nations will probably follow along.

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Israel's Transition to Biden
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 16, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Now that Donald J. Trump will no longer president of the United States, Israel needs to recalibrate.

Israel spent the last four years riding the wave of pro-Israel US policy. And it was quite a wave.

The United States recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem.

The United States recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel.

Now Israel must figure out how to navigate their relations with the United States under Joe Biden’s administration.

Israel - not just Netanyahu but almost every leader in Israel, felt comfortable in the relationship between the Jewish State and Trump.

That is gone.

Biden is no stranger to Israel. But it will not be the same.

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Hopkins' A/S
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 13, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

It is stunning to realize how many examples there are of anti-Semitism on campus.

In a tweet, a teaching assistant at Johns Hopkins polled her followers and asked if, when grading, she should take points away from pro-Israel students.
She then described how repulsed she was by the pro-Israel sentiment of her students and how she found white men reprehensible.

The teaching assistant insisted that, up until now, she has always been fair – but her tweets speak for themselves.

The university issued a statement:
"We are aware of an incident of alleged anti-Semitism and potential abuse of authority in the discharge of academic responsibilities on our campus, and while we are constrained in what we can share with you and others about matters such as these, we wish to assure you that we take seriously any and all allegations of discrimination, harassment, or other misconduct – including anti-Semitism."

The pressure Jews feel on campus is growing and growing.

This is just one of many examples.

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Pelosi Quotes Israeli Poet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I admit we live in crazy times. And then it just gets crazier.

While speaking in Congress, in an appeal to her Republican colleagues, Nancy Pelosi quoted from the great Hebrew poet Ehud Manor’s spectacular poem “Ein Li Eretz Aheret” which, in English, translates to mean “I have No Other Country”.

Pelosi did not just mention the title of the poem and its essential theme, she said: "Mr. Speaker … I recall the words of the great Israeli poet, Ehud Manor.”

And then continued: "I can't keep silent in light of how my country has changed her face, won’t quit trying to remind her. In her ears, I'll sing my cries until she opens her eyes. I can't keep silent of how my country has changed her face.”

The poem was turned into a song that was made famous by Gali Atari. It is a heart wrenching and deeply moving poem and when put to music it deeply touches the souls of people who care about their country.

For Ehud Manor, that country was Israel. For Nancy Pelosi, it is the United States.

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Pelosi Quotes Israeli Poet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 12, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I admit we live in crazy times. And then it just gets crazier.

While speaking in Congress, in an appeal to her Republican colleagues, Nancy Pelosi quoted from the great Hebrew poet Ehud Manor’s spectacular poem “Ein Li Eretz Aheret” which, in English, translates to mean “I have No Other Country”.

Pelosi did not just mention the title of the poem and its essential theme, she said: "Mr. Speaker … I recall the words of the great Israeli poet, Ehud Manor.”

And then continued: "I can't keep silent in light of how my country has changed her face, won’t quit trying to remind her. In her ears, I'll sing my cries until she opens her eyes. I can't keep silent of how my country has changed her face.”

The poem was turned into a song that was made famous by Gali Atari. It is a heart wrenching and deeply moving poem and when put to music it deeply touches the souls of people who care about their country.

For Ehud Manor, that country was Israel. For Nancy Pelosi, it is the United States.

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Iran & Their Drones
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 11, 2021
I've Been Thinking:


Iran recently conducted a drone exercise. Several hundred drones participated in the exercise.

The drones were used in many roles - air to air, air to surface and surface to surface. Some of the drones also were fitted with missiles and smart bombs.

A major part of the exercise involved hundreds of drones in kamikaze strikes in which the drones were used as missiles. This kamikaze drone weapon is new and it is very effective. Like suicide bombers, the drone can be sent by its operator directly to its target.

The videos I watched were like Top Gun with drones. But this is neither fantasy nor entertainment. The new use of these weapons by Iran is extremely dangerous.

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Yemeni Houthis Threaten Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 10, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Yemen is threatening Israel.

They are threatening Israel in response to an interview on Kan Media in Israel during which an Israeli military source said that Israel is preparing strikes against Iranian backed Iraqi militias, as well as Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen.

Fadl Abu Talib, a member of the Houthi Political Bureau, told the Yemini media outlet Rai Al Youm that they will strike “very sensitive” sites in Israel if Israel attacks them.

He said: "If the Israeli enemy was involved in any action against our people, our people will not hesitate to declare jihad against this enemy. We will not hesitate to launch the strongest possible attacks towards very sensitive sites for the Israeli enemy."

Abu Talib then added: "The remarks of the Zionist war criminals, which stated that Yemen is a threat to the Zionist entity, have been repeated; therefore, we are recalling … that our hostility to Israel as a rapist entity and hostile to our ummah is a human and moral principle, as well as a religious obligation."

The Houthis are blustering and over-reaching. There is no way that they can actually present a realistic military threat against Israel.

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Israel Delivers Iron Dome to US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 7, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Israel delivered its 2nd Iron Dome Anti-Missile defense system to the United States on Thursday. This is significant. The US commissioned Israel and purchased this advanced anti-missile system in 2019.

The Iron Dome works on a unique system. It triangulates and then once the missile target is determined, uses an extremely fast rocket to intercept the missile.

The Iron Dome is so good, it is even able to protect against low tech rockets shot into Israel from Gaza.

Ironically, when Israel first suggested the Iron Dome to the US, their Department of Defense engineers said the technology was impossible. They said there was no way to do what Israeli engineers say they can do.

The Iron Dome has successfully downed cruise missiles. It is the first time technology able to defend against the cruise missile.

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World Watches the US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 6, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

I’ve been watching how Israel is watching the United States in the weeks since the November 2020 presidential election.

I’ve seen how deeply concerned Israel is about the way in which the United States has been handling the election results.

Israel can be considered a microcosm of the rest of the world – they are watching and worrying just like the rest of the world, even enemies of the US, are watching and worrying.

The violence that took place in Washington, DC when the US Capitol was overrun by rioters, not only shocked the world, it shook the world.

The world, and Israel in particular, look towards the United States for direction.
The United States sets the example, other countries learn from the example of the United States.

The world is confused by the images they are seeing. They do not understand what they are seeing, cannot believe what they are seeing.
Neither can Americans.

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Cammack To DC w Israeli Flag
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 5, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Kat Cammack was just elected to represent Florida’s 3rd District. She will be a welcome voice in DC. Cammack loves Israel.

Cammack has announced that she will post an Israeli flag outside her Congressional office on Capitol Hill. Cammack’s office will be situated right next to the Democratic Representative from Michigan’s office. She will be right next to Rashida Tlaib, so that flag will have special significance.

Tlaib is of Palestinian decent. She also supports BDS

Cammack said ““She (Tlaib) has some very strong opinions about Israel, and I have some very strong opinions about Israel, so I have made a pledge that I’m going to be planting the flag of Israel outside my door right next to the American flag.”

“I think it’ll be very helpful as she walks past it every day.”
Cammack is going to push back against “the Squad” and against their stance on Israel. Her strength and clarity is welcomed.
Kudos to Congresswoman-elect Kat Cammack.

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Iran Seizes S Korean Tanker
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 4, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran seized a South Korean tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran claimed that the South Korean vessel was polluting. Iran acknowledged the seizure.

What was not acknowledged was that only hours earlier it was announced that a South Korean diplomat was arriving in Iran to discuss billions of dollars of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea.

South Korea freezes Iran’s assets and then Iran seizes a South Korean tanker.
There’s more.

While this is happening, Iran has begun to enrich uranium to 20%. Enriching uranium to 20% is 4 times higher than the famous Iranian agreement permits.
Iran is playing the world like a fine fiddle.

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Nimitz Back to Gulf
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 3, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

The US Defense Department announced that the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier group was exiting the region of the Middle East.

Over the past weeks Iranian leadership and the US president have been exchanging jabs. The intention of the United States in relocating the Nimitz was to de-escalate tensions between the countries,

So the Nimitz and its entire strike force group was relocated to the Persian Gulf area. And then, they were recalled. And now the Nimitz group has been returned to its original location.

During the course of a week the Nimitz was first recalled and then resent to the region.

Acting US Defense Secretary Christopher Miller announced, late on Sunday, that: "Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment."

Iran is back to its old tricks. Iran, once again, is playing games with the United States.

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Iran & Trump
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 1, 2021
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is obsessing over US President Donald Trump. Their thinking is that Trump will attack Iran in his final days in office.

Look at this tweet from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Zarif warns the United States not to attack Iran, he warns that Iran will defend itself so -- beware.
Zarif wrote: "Instead of fighting Covid in US, @realDonaldTrump & cohorts waste billions to fly B52s & send armadas to OUR region. Intelligence from Iraq indicate plot to FABRICATE pretext for war."

Zarif is claiming that President Trump is manufacturing a pretense so that the US can attack Iran.

A military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader warned the US president "not to turn the New Year into mourning for Americans".

This is just one of many episodes, one of many examples.

The essential lesson to learn from Iran’s behavior is that they are wary of Donald
Trump and believe him to be very unpredictable. Iranian leadership does not know what he will do and what he can do - even to the point of an attack on Iran in the last hours of his presidency.

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Naysayers About Normalization
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 31, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Morocco is the fourth Arab nation to announce normalization with Israel.
Over the past three decades Israel and Morocco have had secret relations - especially in the areas of security, terror and even foreign relations.

Despite all that, there has been serious blow back against the move to normalization. In Morocco and throughout the Arab world there is talk that normalization is an abandonment of the Palestinians and that following Donald Trump’s lead is a real mistake.

There is no way of knowing what the numbers are, of how many Moroccans support or reject normalization in Morocco. Morocco is not a democracy.

However, it is clear that the move will help concretize and increase relations with Israel and that those interactions that have been in place for decades.

Naysayers are exaggerating the damage that will be done and underestimating the benefits to Morocco.

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China Wants in w W Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 30, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The landscape is changing in the Middle East.

More and more countries are warming up to Israel.
And China is playing a more significant role in the Middle East.

That’s not all good news. Israel must tread very carefully.

China is determined to develop deeper relationships and become more involved with various Mid East countries. And Israel is on that list.

As the Trump era wanes and the Biden administrations emerges, China is going to want to play a more and more active role.

China cannot replace the United States – that is abundantly clear. But Israel will want to gain some of the advantages China has to offer. Those include investors, tourists, hi-tech production and most importantly, low-priced imports.

Trump did not look kindly at Chinese advances toward investments in Israel. We do not know how Biden will view the move.

It is imperative for Israel to understand that, while China may become a business partner, China will never be a friend.

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A/S Still Around
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 29, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism still exists. That should not come as a surprise.

The Simon Wiesenthal Center in LA published a top ten list of anti- Semitic outbreaks for 2020.

Number one: Jews created COVID. Again, not a surprise.

The report clearly explains that “[f]rom the earliest stages of the pandemic in February 2020, far-right extremists across social media platforms blamed Jews and Asian Americans for the virus.”

One example of that hatred is demonstrated through “an image titled ‘Holocough’ [that] urged, ‘If you have the bug, give a hug. Spread the flu to every Jew.’”

Another example is demonstrated throuf\gh a Trojan Horse with a Jew and a globe inside. The head of the horse is COVID-19 and people at the gate of the city invite the horse in.

The idea that the Jews created and spread COVID is obviously a canard. The most unfortunate part is that there are still many people living among us who believe the ugliest of stories about Jews.

And that, I am afraid, will not change and not go away in 2021.

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COVID in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 28, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel announced that they should have the COVID-19 pandemic under control by late February to mid-March.

They have already vaccinated nearly 300,000 people. 100,000 were vaccinated on Sunday alone.

There have been some hiccups. People complained that when they called on December 24th for appointments to vaccinate their elderly parents, they received an appointment for March. That is three months later.

When they complain, they are asked to call back because “more vaccination sites are opening all the time”.

Chief Sefardic Rabbi Yitzchak Yossef dedicated time to discuss the COVID vaccine on his Saturday night Torah lesson which is broadcast around the world on radio and internet TV.

Rabbi Yossef said that it was a Jewish legal obligation to GET the vaccine.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 27, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran threatened Israel by saying that they will attack any Israeli submarine found in the Persian Gulf. This threat came in response to statements by Israel and the United States that they are dispatching subs to the area.

Abu al Fadi Amoui, a spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, said this in an interview on Al Jazeera in Arabic:

“Israel must know that our response to aggression against our national security will be strong and massive … Israel is looking for excuses to drag the region into a tension that creates chaos in the last days of the Trump presidency.”

Iran has been referencing Trump’s last days a lot. They have repeatedly said that Israel is trying to draw Iran into a conflict in the final weeks of the Trump presidency.

Iran likes to play mind games with the West.

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Morocco & Palestine
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 25, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed VI, King of Morocco, sent an official letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In the letter the king wrote that Morocco stands behind the Palestinians and firmly supports a 2-state solution with Israel.
This is critical.

Morocco has begun to normalize relations with Israel, they have even instituted direct flights between the countries.

The purpose of the king’s letter to the Palestinians was to make it clear to Abbas and to all Palestinians and to the world that normalizing with Israel does not mean the end of support for the Palestinians.

The King of Morocco was explaining that they did not switch teams and can no longer be involved with the other side. The opposite. King Mohammed is saying that supporting both the 2-state solution and normalization with Israel is good for everyone.

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Israel's 3rd Lockdown
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 24, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel will enter another 2-week total lockdown on Sunday.

The cabinet met Wednesday night and agreed that all schools will close with the exception of 1-4 grades, 11th & 12th grades and special education. School will be limited to 5 hours of class.

No one will be able to wander more than 100 meters, which is 110 yards, from their homes.

All businesses, except food services, must close. Food services may deliver. No dining in doors or outdoors.

Only essential workers may move about.

Gatherings are limited to 10 people indoors and 20 people outdoors.

Israel’s Corona Czar. Professor Ash, has said that 2 weeks will not be enough.
Corona virus numbers in Israel have been climbing and climbing. Over the last week they have doubled to 4,000 cases per day.

Shutting down has worked for Israel in the past -- this is their third shutdown since March.

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UN Condemns Israel 17 Times
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 23, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

As 2020 comes to an end, it behooves us to look at some numbers.
In 2020, the United Nations General Assembly voted to condemn Israel 17 times.

The entire rest of the world combined was condemned (only!) 6 times.

One of the condemnations against Israel was for a 2006 oil spill off the coast of Lebanon -during a war with Hezbollah.

The only relief in this preposterous state of affairs is that resolutions in the UN General Assembly have no authority - they are totally without practical power.

They do, however, give a clear indication of the way Israel is viewed by the rest of the world.

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Israeli Elections in March
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 22, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Knesset, their parliament, did not pass their budget. And that means that Israelis are heading to their fourth set of national elections in two years.

Elections are scheduled for March 23rd. The date falls almost on the eve of Passover.

It is too early to predict what will happen in 3 months - BUT - there are certain absolutes.

The Blue and White Party has imploded. The party, which had emerged as a mosaic trying to bring together the center left, splintered after the last election.
There is no way they will get together again.

Gideon Saar broke, once a prominent member of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, broke away from Likud and is forming a new, right-wing party. He wants to bring party members and voters with him which will, inevitably, draw traditional voters away from Netanyahu and the Likud.

Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, which means “the right” has staked out a position further to the right of Netanyahu and will draw many voters from
Netanyahu’s traditional base. Bennett began his campaign several months ago.
Voters who are frustrated by Netanyahu feel comfortable with Bennett. Voters who naturally lean right feel comfortable with Bennett. He is squeaky clean and that is a very attractive attribute in this era of political corruption.

A lot will happen in the coming months.

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Huge Iran Hack on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 21, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Pay2Key is an Iranian hacker or hacking group - it is unclear. Individual or a group, they are highly skilled.

Pay2Key recently claimed that they hacked into Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI). They claim to have accessed one of the most secure facilities in the world.

Pay2Key published proof of their hack on their Darkwebsite, even including the name of the head of the IAI cyber division. Copies of secured documents were posted on their site.

How much damage was inflicted is unclear. The IAI says that no hack was detected.

If the hackers gained access only to files, they still have eyes on some of most sensitive material about Israel’s missiles and satellites, Israel’s present and future plans and importantly, Israel’s defense systems and intel.

If true, this was a huge hack.

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Iran Now Likes Bolton
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 20, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s FARS media has run a large story singing the praises of John Bolton.

I, too, was stunned as I read the piece. John Bolton is a hawk on all issues - especially on the Iranian issue.

As President Trump’s National Security Advisor, Bolton was the most vociferous of all hawks, constantly suggesting strikes and aggressive responses to Iranian hostility. None of this was new behavior or thinking. Bolton has been consistent throughout his career.

And then he and President Trump had a parting of the ways. And John Bolton wrote a tell-all book. And now Iran is praising him.

The reason is clear. In praising John Bolton, Iran is criticizing Donald Trump.

There are rumors that President Trump wants to impose martial law. Bolton does not think that to be a good idea and made his comments public. Trump retorted, in a tweet, that Bolton is “one of the dumbest people in Washington.”

Iran has been running with the martial law story.

It proves Machiavelli’s axiom. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Trump is Iran’s enemy + Trump and Bolton are enemies = Iran + Bolton = Friends.
Simple math.

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US Not Sharing Intel w Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 18, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Ever since Qatar sided with Iran, they have been on the outs in the Sunni Middle East.

And Qatar is also paying the price with Western democracies.
A report by the British Cornerstone Institute reports that the United States no longer shares intel with Qatar for fear that it will be shared with Iran. And neither do Great Britain or France.

What make this change in policy even more interesting is that Qatar still hosts US and British forces.

The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest single military installation in the entire Middle East. One of the reasons it is so large is that the base hosts both US Airforce units and British Royal Air force units, and also serves as the very important Headquarters of US Central Command.

More evidence that Qatar has been distanced from the West is that they ran to Turkey and Iran to try to scuttle the deals other countries were making with Israel. Qatar, Turkey and Iran are consolidating their relationship in the hope that they can become a strong front against the deals with Israel, all of which were sponsored by the United States.

It is assumed that Qatar has told the United States that they may not attack Iran from their territory. If that is true, it clearly shows where Qatar stands on the world stage.

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Russia Has a Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 17, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Last week Russia’s ambassador to Israel said that Israel was the most destabilizing force in the region. He said that Israel was even more destabilizing that Iran.

This week Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US policy in the Middle East “unconstructive.” He was responding to a comment made by Mike Pompeo that Russia’s Mid East policies are “destabilizing”.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had declared that: "Russia continues to threaten Mediterranean stability using a variety of techniques to spread disinformation, undermine national sovereignty, and sow chaos, conflict and division within countries throughout the region."

Lavrov response was: "The US practically bans all the countries in the region from cooperating with Russia, whether in the military or technical fields, as well as on any other issue."

Lavrov’s example was accurate. The US has imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry because Turkey imported Russian S-400 missile defense systems, which is incompatible with NATO systems and could compromise the Western world. Turkey has denied the claims, saying that it has no plans to integrate the Russian system into NATO.

Turkey’s comments are irrelevant. Their promise not to integrate or share NATO military information with Russia is empty and hard to believe.

But what is most distressing is this war of words between the United States and Russia.

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Sudan & Israel - True Relationship
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 16, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


A series of questions is emerging about the normalization deals between Israel and some Arab countries.

Like Sudan. Sudan has a nasty history of perpetrating terror and supporting terror.
They have a terrible human rights record. They have made some of the most extreme of anti-Israel statements.

Sudan has almost nothing to offer Israel. With that knowledge it was not surprising to hear Sudan’s foreign minister, Omar Qamar al-Din, being interviewed on Al-Hadath TV and saying that Sudan "agreed to avoid a state of war with the Hebrew state but we will not reach any other state."

As if that wasn’t enough, he went on to say that "there is no diplomatic representation, no Chamber of Commerce and no cooperation between Israeli and Sudanese universities or companies. There are military factors that work together as far as we know. I have no further information on this matter. Everything that concerns the promotion of relations with Israel in the future depends on there being an agreement or agreements, and any such agreement will be presented to the legislative council that will be formed soon."

Normalization is just normalization, normalization is not peace.

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Iran's New Nuke Plan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 15, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announced that they are planning to build two brand new nuclear facilities.

This announcement appears to be revenge for the assassination of the father of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

These new sites will be up and running within five months. It could change the entire nuclear game.

The first site is a laboratory that will deal with uranium in metal form. It is a mechanism essential in the making of nuclear weapons. The lab will have a heavy water reactor that can accumulate plutonium in its spent fuel.

Richard Johnson, the Senior Director for Fuel Cycle and Verification at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization, expressed his concern over Iran’s plans when he said: “If either was to proceed, that would stand out as a major proliferation concern.”

This is serious issue for the world. Iran has said that they will shut the new facilities down only if the United States re-enters the famous JCPOA, aka, the Nuke Deal.

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Iran's Oil Plan
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 14, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to up their oil pumping production next year. As of the beginning of the Iranian year, which means March, Iranian leadership plans to increase production to 4.5 million barrels/day.

This will happen in two stages.

Stage One takes place right now and extends through the Biden inauguration.
First, Iran will increase their oil production to 2.6 million barrels per/day. In Stage Two they will double that to 4.5 million.

Impressive as those numbers sound, the real increase will be in increasing their oil input from their current production numbers to reach 2.6 million. According to Bloomberg News, Iran is now only producing 133,000 barrels/day.

This plan was presented, by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, to the Iranian parliament on Saturday.

Oil is the most significant component of Iran’s economy. They need to pump their oil and to sell their oil. These past few years the Iranian economy has been crippled. It looks like it is on the mend.

As their economy improves, so will Iran’s threat and so will their nuclear program.

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Benefits of Normalization
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 12, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

I get the question all the time: What does Israel gain from normalization deals with Arab nations? What benefits do the Arab and Muslim countries realize from these deals?

The obvious answer is peace. But while that is a significant reason, it is not really relevant right now. There was little chance of war because none of the countries that have now normalized with Israel, share borders with Israel. And there is only a slight chance that, because of the normalizations, either the international community or the United Nations will change their tone when it comes to Israel.

And so, the main reason, the most significant reason, these countries want to normalize with Israel is to use this new status as a military check against Iran.

Another reason, important but of slightly less importance, is that with normalization comes access to Israeli technology. All forms of Israeli technology – and that includes bio tech, medical tech, agricultural tech. It also includes solar energy technology and advancements and natural gas exports.

These countries want to ride the wave of Israeli security and hi-tech military advances.

Morocco, for example, now imports 90% of their energy. Israel can help them with solar energy and natural gas. And even before the normalization of ties announcement went public, Morocco had secretly purchased $48 million worth of drones from Israel.

The benefits for Israel, too, are numerous. Doors, formerly sealed shut and markets, once unavailable, are opening wide for Israel. Millions of investment dollars are pouring into Israeli tech.

Next in line look to be Oman and Indonesia.

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Hamas Hacking Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 11, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The cyber branch of Hamas has been hacking Arabic-speaking targets in the Palestinian Authority, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Turkey.

Hackers sent emails to Arabic readers with links to interesting stories about Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel. Imbedded in the links were viruses that enabled the hackers to access their targets computers, especially their history.

The question is: Why would Hamas want to monitor what Arabic readers were reading.

The answer is that Hamas wants to know what the Arab masses and what Arab world leadership is reading and what they are thinking regarding Israel.
In other words, they are worried that now that the many in the Arab world are warming up to Israel, they might be turning an even colder shoulder toward Hamas.


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Norway Defunds Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 10, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Norway’s Storting, the Norwegian Parliament, voted to slash aid to the Palestinians.
They cut $3.4 million in aid to the Palestinians.

Norway’s Progress Party lobbied and convinced the parliament that for years the Palestinians have been saying that they will change, or have already changed, their textbooks. And yet, in schools and in their textbooks, Palestinians glorify terror and terrorists and preach wiping Israel off the map and pushing the Jewish State into the sea.

"Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists,"
Norwegian lawmaker Himanshu Gulati, the deputy chair of Friends of Israel in the Storting, posted a statement on the FrP website. He wrote: “Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists … "When Norway provides aid to Palestine, the money goes into the same economy that is also used to pay prisoners 'salaries’ ".

If the PA continues to pay salaries to the families of Palestinian prisoners arrested, convicted and serving time in Israeli prisons, Gulati called for Norway to further cut their aid to the Palestinian Authority.

This is critical.

For decades Norway has been known as a friend of the Palestinians, often attacking Israel as unfair and as an aggressor. They attacked Israel because they believe that Israel is stronger than the PA and that Israel has the power to help the Palestinians.

But Norway will not tolerate anti-Semitism. Norway cannot be part of or sponsor anything that promotes anti-Semitism.

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Russia: Israel More Destabilizing than Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 9, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem Post ran a shocking interview with Russian Ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov.

Viktorov said that Israel was the most de-stabilizing factor in the Middle East … not Iran.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry called him in and dressed him down.

The Russian Ambassador to Israel called Israel an aggressor. He questioned Israel’s bombing of Iranian arm shipments to Hezbollah, even if the tunnels Israel discovered on the border were dug by Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Moscow knew of and even prompted Viktorov’s comments. They also knew that he would be called in by the Foreign Ministry of Israel.

For Moscow, it was worth it all.

Moscow is realigning itself in the Middle East. It is shifting its own position in order to make Iran and Syrian and Turkey more comfortable.

Russia is responding to US involvement in the normalization of ties between Israel and several Arab nations.

Russia is siding with those who reject this US/Israel move.

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Iran Sending More Oil to Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 8, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Venezuela is suffering from a crippling shortage of oil. Considering that Venezuela is a member of OPEC and was once one of the world’s largest producers and supplier of oil and that Citco was once Chavez’ oil company – this is not a predicament anyone would have expected for Venezuela.

There are many reasons explaining why Venezuela is now in such dire straits. Most important is that the United States has made it clear that the Venezuelans have not been playing nicely when it comes to Foreign affairs. Nicolas Maduro has been a flamboyant and aggressive anti-US propagandist.

Venezuela needs help – and Iran is coming to their rescue. Iran, as we all know, is also in the diplomatic doghouse with the United States.

Iran has already sent oil tankers to Venezuela, I’ve written about that several times.

Now, they have launched a flotilla of 10 tankers headed to Venezuela to help further relieve the oil crisis.

Venezuela’s crisis will be eased, but the Iranian inspired crises in the Western world will be heightened.

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Abu Dhabi To Open Office in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 7, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


In September Abu Dhabi announced that they will open an investment office in Israel.

Today State-run Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO) Director General, Tariq bin Hendi told a UAE-Israel conference in Dubai: "It's very exciting for us because we will have that office open in the next few weeks."
They will be opening their office in just a few days.

The excitement is palpable. Abu Dhabi has already made inquiries into investments and they have already setup meetings and lined up several projects in Israel. Israeli investment groups are working hand in hand with Abu Dhabi. These groups identify possible projects and propose them to investors.

We are talking about an injection of hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars of investments into Israel technology. Israeli tech and Abu Dhabi investment is a tremendous power.

These investments can potentially change the world. It is a marriage made in heaven.

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Saudi Prince Attacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 6, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Recently Bahrain hosted The Bahrain Security Summit. Present was Israel’s Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi as well as many of the most important players in the Middle East.

Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was the head of Saudi intelligence for more than two decades was there and he spoke. Al Faisal also served for decades as Saudi ambassador to the U.S. and Great Britain. Currently the prince is officially retired but his words carry tremendous weight in Saudi Arabia and he has the ear of the king.

Al Faisal launched a scathing attack on Israel and normalization. He said that there will be no normalization deals needed to help the Palestinians obtain their own independent state.

He described Israel as a "Western colonizing" power. He said Israel has "incarcerated (Palestinians) in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations— young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice. They are demolishing homes as they wish and they assassinate whomever they want."

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Poor PA Investment
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

$1.732 billion is a large sum of money. That sum is the difference between private Palestinian investments flowing out of Palestinian Authority areas and external investments flowing into PA areas.

In other words, people with money living in the Palestinian Authority are investing their money outside the Palestinian Authority. And of all those people who say that they care about the Palestinians are investing very little in the Palestinians. They are not putting their money where their mouths are.

These figures come from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Ghassan Halum, a Palestinian investor explained: “When people go abroad and invest, they usually intend to earn some capital and then return home, but they get used to a certain system and laws, in addition to facilities and privileges. When they return home, the corruption and complications needed to get things done shock them.”

This is not good news. It means that the Palestinian economy is losing billions of dollars annually.

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Secret Mtgs Btw Israel & Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Al Monitor, an Arab news outlet headquartered in London, reported that Turkey and Israel are secretly meeting in the hope of re-establishing diplomatic relations and returning their ambassadors. The ambassadors were recalled in 2018, after the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem.

There is, of course, another motivation.

Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States was not interested in Turkey’s human rights violations and the problems that they were causing - which included teaming up with Russia and Iran in support of Syria.

Turkey has been a public attack dog against Israel.

But now Turkey expects that the Biden administration will not be as sympathetic to them and will not turn a blind eye to these issues.

Turkey believes that, if they warm up to Israel, they will curry favor with the new US administration and with the Biden inner circle.

Al Monitor reported that three meeting took place between Israel and Turkey. In at least one of those meeting, the heads of Turkish and Israeli intelligence were present.

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Another Election in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like elections are on the horizon in Israel. Again.

Both Benny Gantz, the head of the Blue & White party, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Likud, made announcements about elections on the same day. And their announcements were made only 15 minutes apart from each other.

Gantz wants elections. Bibi is saying hold on. They each have a personal agenda.
Elections are personal.

In the end, in the event of another election in Israel, both Gantz and Netanyahu will be big losers.

Gantz will never be able to bring together the broad base group that challenged Bibi in earlier elections. And Bibi is feeling a real threat from his right flank.
Gantz and Bibi aside, if there is a 4th election in Israel, the biggest losers will be the citizens of Israel.

Never a dull moment in Israel.

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UAE Blackballs 11 Muslim Countries
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the UAE are in high gear. Multiple airlines are flying back and forth.
ELAL has 16 flights from Israel to Dubai per week. And that’s just one of the airlines now connecting these two, now friendly, countries.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have signed a visa-free program. There is no visa necessary for citizens of either country to fly to the other country.

But while Israelis can now travel to the UAE easily and visa-free, the visas of eleven Muslim countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Tunisia, have been yanked. They have been cancelled, rescinded.

This black-list is official policy. Why does this policy exist? The answer is, actually, pretty easy to understand.

Most of those eleven countries are havens for terror. Terror groups gather there and organize there.

The UAE is concerned that Israelis would be perfect targets for terror. So, the UAE has literally blocked all entry from countries that might plan, sponsor and perpetrate attacks against their Israeli guests.

If terror came to the UAE it would ruin not just their new relationship with Israel, it would destroy tourism, trade and business between the UAE and any other Western group planning on expanding their dealings in the UAE.

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Iranian Nuke Head Assassinated
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of the Iran’s nuclear weapons program, was assassinated on Friday, November 27, 2020.

His name and picture were part of the nuclear archive that Israel smuggled out of Iran and which Bibi Netanyahu presented to the world. Israel place a photo of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on a large screen and Netanyahu told everyone to remember that name.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated while riding in a car. Witnesses describe an explosion and then some shots. Photos show gunshots through the front windshield on the driver’s side. There was significant blood on the street. First reports were that he was taken to the hospital and died there. More likely, he was pronounced dead there.

The policy of most highly trained assassination teams is to “confirm the kill”. That means that after the strike, if there is time and access, they will quickly approach the body and shoot the target in the head.

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Qatar Stops Bahraini Ships
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Midday on Wednesday two Bahraini ships were returning home from a nearby war exercise in the Arabian Sea. As they passed through Qatari waters, the two Bahraini ships were stopped by three Qatari naval vessels who claimed that they were protecting their border and territorial waters.

In the end, the Bahrainis and their ships were let go and continued the rest of their short trip home.

Bahrain is ledging a complaint with the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Both Bahrain and Qatar are members of the GCC which has an agreement that permits the vessels of member nations to safely traverse each other’s territorial waters.

In 2017 Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt all severed ties with Qatar. Why? Because Qatar had aligned with Iran.

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Israelis Go to Ethiopia to Fight Locust
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister has invited an Israeli team of locust experts to visit his country in order to help combat their worst locust plague in 75 years.

The team of four Israelis are on the ground in Ethiopia. They are using drones and spraying at night in order to stop the plague.

Dr Yoav Motro, a member of the team said: “It’s the worst it has been in 75 years. And a tropical cyclone that hit the eastern part of the region in the past few days will only make things more complex. One has to note these regions do not deal with locusts on a regular basis — which hampers their readiness and their resilience to it.”

The locust descend and literally destroy everything that grows. An entire year’s crop is lost - devoured. This is not just an issue of an industry being hurt or a crop being destroyed, it is about major food shortage.

Swarms of locust are destroying food in a region where food is desperately needed.

The Israeli team has studied locust and they have experience fighting them. If they were called in early enough, they will be successful in their mission. The locust need to be destroyed before they move on to their next location and destroy that area, too.

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Bibi Meets Saudi Crown Prince
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

With lightening-speed the media covered yesterday’s story of a secret meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The Wall Street Journal broke the news. And then The New York Times followed up and reported that the Saudis denied the meeting.

Then the Israeli press confirmed that the meeting did happen and the Saudis finally offered confirmation.

Yes, Israel’s prime minster and the head of Israel’s Mossad flew to Riyad, Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi leadership.

So, who leaked the meeting to the press?

In Israel, many people are pointing their fingers at the Office of the Prime Minister.

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9 November 2023 09:59 PM in Thoughts   ·  Comments (0)   ·  TrackBack (8)



Iran's New Naval Ship
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has unveiled a brand-new naval ship that is 170 yards long. The ship is a “naval city capable of carrying ocean missions.” It can carry aircraft and drones and missiles.

Iranian State television reported that a "heavy, multi-purpose, and long-range warship capable of carrying all types of aircrafts, drones, missiles and radar systems" had been added to the Revolutionary Guards fleet. The Shahid Rudaki warship is a “mobile naval city capable of carrying ocean missions," state TV added.

The Revolutionary Guards navy commander, Ali Reza Tangsiri, told state TV that the warship would provide security for "maritime transportation lines, oil tankers, commercial and fishing fleets on the high seas."

The name given to this ship, the Shahid Rudaki, is profound. A shahid is a person who dies for a cause, a shahid is a martyr. Rudaki was the founder of modern Persian poetry and literature. He died in 941.

This Iranian naval vessel is the size of an aircraft carrier. Its purpose is to check the US aircraft carrier fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf.

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9 November 2023 09:59 PM in Thoughts   ·  Comments (0)   ·  TrackBack (5)



Bibi Tells Biden About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minster Netanyahu spoke at the memorial for David Ben Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister.

He used the opportunity to explain and plead his case before US president-elect Joe Biden.

Netanyahu said “Do not return to the previous [Iran] nuclear deal. We must keep to an uncompromising policy to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.”

Israel’s view of Iran’s nuclear program is no secret. And way before Trump assumed the US presidency, Israel was pushing the United States to step up pressure on Iran and to stop their nuclear program.

In fact, in great part, the tension between Obama and Netanyahu was on this very issue. During Obama’s tenure in office, Bibi Netanyahu took his argument directly to the US Congress and to the American people. He convinced them that the Iranian deal was dangerous.

David Ben Gurion would have approved of Netanyahu’s action then, just as he would have approved of what he did today. “Speaking truth to power!”

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Iran Planted
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel dismantled three IEDs, Improvised Explosive Devices, on the Israeli side of “No Man’s Land on the border with Syria.
In other words, it was on the Israeli side of the border.

It should be absolutely clear that the purpose of the bombs was to kill as many Israeli soldiers as possible. They were certainly placed there by locals who know the area. Locals who were taught, advised and coached by Iranian elite forces.

Israel has announced that they have evidence that the Iranian Al Quds Force was responsible for the bombs. Actually, the IDF was even more specific.

The IDF said that unit 840 of the Al Quds Force was the group that made the bombs and helped the locals plant them along the border.

This is very important information.

Iranians positioned that close to Israel’s border is very dangerous.

Iranian involvement in local Syrian activity so close to Israel is causing Israel to consider new options to better protect their border.

Thankfully, for so many reasons, these IEDs were discovered and thankfully, safely dismantled.

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Iran & A New Arms Race
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 18, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the administration in the United States is changing, Iran is now laying out options for arms acquisitions.

In Iran’s eyes, the arms embargo is over.

Three countries are anxiously waiting to provide arms to Iran.
First is Russia, second is China and the third is Iran. Yes, Iran.

Iran is an arms manufacturer and with the opening of the embargo they will be able to build and even export weapons.

Because of Russia and China’s interests in supplying Iran with weapons, there is little doubt that an arms race will break out in the Middle East. Iran is going to expand vis a vis all forms of weapons – tanks, planes, boats, helicopters. That means that their Sunni competitors will also want to expand to keep their quantitative and qualitative edge.

While arms will be supplied to Iran by Russia and Iran, arms to the Sunni countries will be supplied by the US and other Western nations.

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PA to Resume Talks w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday November 17, the Palestinian Authority announced that they will resume interaction with Israel.

The announcement came after PA leadership received assurances from the Biden Administration that things will be different under the Biden Administration from what they were under the Trump Administration.

A Palestinian Authority official is quoted in the Jerusalem Post saying: “We have received many positive messages from the Biden team in the past few days ... We are looking forward to opening a new page with the Biden administration after the damage caused by the Trump administration.”

Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Maj.-Gen. Kamil Abu Rukun, had an official response to that statement:

“Israel has previously stated that the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian agreements continue to form the applicable legal framework governing the conduct of the parties. On financial and other matters.

“Therefore, in accordance with these agreements Israel continues to collect taxes for the Palestinian Authority. Unfortunately, it was the Palestinian Authority which decided not to receive those collected funds from Israel.”

Time will tell.

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Iran Should Not Assume Biden Will Roll Over
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is waiting and watching, very curious to see what will happen in the Biden administration.

Iranian leadership is hoping for a total change of direction - back to the Iranian deal and diplomatic paths that will reopen the embargo on Iranian business. Their ideal scenario would be to lift sanctions on Iranian oil and to permit COVID medications to enter the country.

At this stage, I think Iran is too hopeful.

They should continue to wait and test the waters and then they should wait a little longer because things may not go their direction.

The US is well aware that Iran have been cheating, ending around the system.
And the US knows, too, that the Saudis and other Gulf states are wary of and advances toward Iran.

Many things have changed in the four years since Obama left office. The Trump Administration successfully highlighted the problems with the Iranian deal. The imperfections need to be resolved. And Biden’s advisers are well aware of this as well.

Iran is hurting economically and COVID-wise, that should be clear. They need the assistance of the United States. And that is an important tool that can and should be used as leverage to get more from Iran than what was in the original Accords.

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WHO Condemns Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The World Health Organization (WHO), a sub-unit of the United Nations, spent their most recent meeting condemning Israel for health abuses against Palestinians and the Druze of the Golan Heights.

One would think they would address the crisis of COVID-19 as a pandemic.
Instead they attacked Israel for mistreating Palestinians by restricting treatment and access to treatment.

Representative after representative, speaker after speaker, stood and condemned Israel - repeating the exact same words. It was a four hour session that resulted in a resolution condemning Israel.

The vote was 78 in favor, 14 opposed with 32 abstentions and 56 countries absent.
Countries that voted against Israel, that condemned Israel, know better. France, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Japan, India, New Zealand, Luxembourg and Monaco, shame on you.

The entire notion is a total lie, a total fabrication. Israel has tried to help keep COVID contagion down in the Palestinian Authority. This sounds strange, but the best way to do that was by keeping many people from travelling. It helped.

Palestinians with COVID are in Israeli hospitals. It is the PA that shuns and even prevents their residents from going to Israeli hospitals. But a procedure is in place through which Palestinians enter Israeli hospitals.

Druze of the Golan are Israeli citizens. They are entitled to – and receive the same care every other citizen receives.

These are most of the countries that voted against the resolution: the United States, Britain, Australia, Brazil, Czech Republic, Germany, Honduras, Hungary, Israel, Slovenia, Cameroon, Swaziland and Micronesia.

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Saudi King Speaks Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz seldom speaks publicly these days. The running of the kingdom is firmly in the hands of Crown Prince Salman.

On Thursday, the king addressed the Shura Council. This is the first time he has spoken since addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September. Both presentations were given with a safe video uplink.

The Shura Council is a consulting body that advises all branches of government in Saudi Arabia.

In this presentation the king addressed the issue of Iran. The Saudi leader views Iran as the threat. It was also his topic when speaking before the GA. He said that everyone needed to stand up to Iran.

"The kingdom stresses the dangers of Iran's regional project, its interference in other countries, its fostering of terrorism, its fanning the flames of sectarianism ... in its efforts to possess weapons of mass destruction.”

Expect that this issue will drive a wedge between the new US administration and the Sunni Gulf states. The promised policy of the incoming Biden Administration is to reach out to Iran. This is the opposite of the Saudi and Israeli objective which is to isolate Iran.

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Saeb Erekat Buried in Jericho
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 11, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat was buried in Jericho. I know the cemetery, it is a fitting resting place for this illustrious Palestinian, lined with desert date palms - an oasis.

Erekat was one of the most recognized figures in the Palestinian media world. He was 65 years old when he succumbed to COVID. His burial coincided with the 16th anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s death. Also fitting.

Erekat was Arafat’s most trusted English spokesman and chief negotiator. More than simply an insider, 16 years ago he was thought to be a potential successor to Arafat. But the position went to Mahmud Abbas and once again he was in the successor position, to one day take over the Palestinian reins, this time from Abbas.

I had many interactions with Erekat, mostly on air, at times in person. Erekat was a propagandist for Arafat and the PA, a propogandist par excellence.
Unfortunately, that led to some ridiculous comments, speculation and accusations.
Some were honest most were forced. He fought to justify the Palestinian cause - including terror attacks against Jews.

Erekat understood the media. He understood the role of the media and its importance, even if it meant engaging in total falsehoods, as long as the Palestinian story would be told. He knew that when you fall off the “front page” you become irrelevant.

And that is the misfortunate of the end of his life. These past few years the Palestinian issue has become less central. The once great legacy of Saeb Erekat was lost. His death is not headline news.

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Iran is Emboldened
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is now flexing its muscles.

Iranian leadership knows that US President Elect Biden wants to return to making deals with Iran.

Should that happen, it would mean a significant weakening for the Sunni Gulf States. That’s because Donald Trump will no longer be there to protect them from Iran or to lend assistance, which was the plan.

So, Iran is now telling the Gulf States that now they are vulnerable and advising them that the best plan for them is to unite and join with Iran.

Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted: A sincere message to our neighbors: Trump's gone in 70 days But we'll remain here forever Betting on outsiders to provide security is never a good gamble We extend our hand to our neighbors for dialog to resolve differences

He wrote his tweet in English and Arabic. The tweet was announced on websites and broadcast on all their media outlets. It was like a Mafia family offering peace. Or else.

Iran has become emboldened by the Biden victory. It’s a new diplomatic chess game. Now we wait and watch to see what counter moves are in the works.

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Biden Mid East Policy
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


What will Joe Biden’s Middle East policy look like? – that is the question I am being asked non-stop.

There are certain givens. And there are many question marks.

The most obvious given is that Biden will, as he has said over and over again, return to the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or in lay terms, the “Iran Deal.”

It was no secret that the Saudis favored Trump over Biden. The Iran Deal was a
direct threat to Sunni hegemony. Expect tensions on that front.

Expect Biden’s administration to reopen the Palestinian Embassy in Washington, DC.

Expect them to restart aid to the Palestinian Authority - Kamala Harris has already made that promise.

Expect them to reach out and bring the PA back to the table based on the two-state solution.

Do not expect the US Embassy in Jerusalem to return to its former home in Tel Aviv. However, there will almost certainly be discussion about the United States withdrawing recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Israel is in for a series of roller coaster rides.

Biden has a long and very positive history with Israel. There were several low points during the eight years of the Obama presidency, but in general (“B’Gadol” as Israelis like to say), Joe Biden is a friend of Israel.

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Lessons From Israel -Tight elections
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel learned some important lessons from tight elections. The United States can learn from Israel’s experience.

Over the 15-month period between December 2018 and March 2020, Israel held three very close elections.

The most important lessons learned from these close elections are: First, be patient and second, do not pay attention to either sides claim of victory.

Next, there are always mistakes and problems in counting. These blunders are usually few and the exception. But when they become systemic, that’s when it is important to watch. Pay attention only when the mistakes sway the election.

In the end, true numbers will emerge and the legitimate winner will be officially declared. Do not rush the announcement.

Respect the process. For the sake of democracy, it is worth the wait.

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Not in US Interest to Push Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I’ve mentioned this before – Saudi Arabia is not going to be the next country in the Middle East to normalize relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia is in line but certainly not at the front of the line.

There are many reasons. One reason is that the United States has been pressuring the Saudi Kingdom to normalize their power in the region.

Saudi power is based on their wealth and on the way they spread influence. They are contributors and sponsors. Even more significant is that they are the guardians of the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina.

The Saudis have sway.

As open to the West as they appear to be, there is a significant group of leaders in Saudi Arabia – especially religious leadership, that is extremely conservative. They would have great difficulty with normalization with the Jewish State, especially public celebrations of the normalization with Israel.

The Saudi Kingdom functions by maintaining balance between Wahabi religious leadership and the royal family.

The Wahabis are a fiercely, fervently, religious subgroup of Sunni Islam. It is they who are responsible for religious life and education in Saudi Arabia. Normalization would wreck that balance.

We are not even going to discuss the Saudi human rights record and their attitude towards women.

While on the surface it would appear that Saudi Arabia is the prefect partner for normalization. That is simply incorrect at this stage. It is not in their interest or the interest of the US to push it.

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They Target & Murder Jews
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Vienna, in the Jewish area, near the synagogue. 4 people were murdered, 14 were wounded and 7 of those wounded remain in serious and life-threatening conditions.

One of the terrorists, wearing a fake suicide vest, was killed on the spot.

With this attack ISIS struck at two of their highest value targets. Western Europe and Jews.

There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that there are people - individuals and groups - who target Jews in order to murder them. These are not accidental attacks. These are not spontaneous strikes. They are planned, murderous operations to kill as many Jews and Europeans as possible.

What is so eerie is that this particular terror attack was perpetrated in November of 2020. Kristallnacht took place in November, 1938. Vienna is the city in which Hitler matured and galvanized his ideology of hatred and murder.

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Bio-Convergence From Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is investing $100 million in “Bio-Convergence”.

That’s a big investment. And I bet that most people have no idea what it is.
Bio-Convergence is the overlap of biology, physics, computer science, mathematics, engineering, materials science and nanotechnology.

BC is a new form of Bio Tech. It is the marriage of all forms of science, engineering and math with medicine.

It uses all that knowledge and all those creative energies to find solutions to difficult issues that until now were not even close to being solved.

Utilizing collective wisdom from multiple disciplines is “Bio-Convergence”. It is the wave of the future for inventions and it is the future for investments.

Israel is on the cutting edge of this new phenomenon. And Israel is on both sides, on both teams - the development side and the investment side.

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Russia Escorting Iranian Oil Tanker
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Samah is a 900 ft long Iranian oil tanker. The tanker entered the Mediterranean Sea by crossing through the Suez Canal. It was heavy, laden with oil coming from Iran.

After passing through the Suez Canal and starting to make its way into the Mediterranean Sea, the Samah turned off its transponder. For all intents and purposes, the location of the tanker became a mystery.

Satellite photos, however, show that the Samah was met and then escorted by two Russian navy ships. One of the ships was a destroyer. The ships made their way to Syria. Iran has a history of delivering oil to Syria – despite the international embargo on Syria and on Iranian oil exports.

In this case, Russia is not turning a blind eye. The Russians are aiding Iran’s delivery of badly needed fuel to Syria.

Russia has an entire naval base as well as two full air-force bases in Tatus, Syria.

They also have a squadron of submarines there.

Russia is putting the world on alert, announcing that they will protect Iranian oil tankers. Protect them from whom? From countries thinking of enforcing the embargo.

This is a move of intimidation.

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Saudi Media Change of Tone
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

In countries like Saudi Arabia official media offers a clue to understanding how the leadership us thinking and the direction in which the kingdom is moving.

Recently, official Saudi media has changed its tone about Israel and the normalization agreements.

Here is a quote from Saudi official Faisal Abbas that ran in the largest Saudi English language paper. Scolding Palestinian leadership he asks: “When will they learn that every time they turn away from the negotiating table, the pie only gets smaller?”

Faisal continues saying that the fault was “not all on one side” and that Israel also makes it difficult to reach a deal to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

That was one example of a changing Saudi attitude, here’s another.

For Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, the Saudi Arab News Twitter site changed its logo to “Shannah Tovah”.

And another: official State media ran a three day special, an hour each day, interviewing Prince Bandar in which he criticized Palestinians and all those who have been critical of the Kingdom’s advances with Israel and other Gulf State’s normalization agreements.

All this would have been unheard of just months ago.

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France Fights Islamic Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

France is becoming an extremely dangerous place to live.

There was a second beheading this week and three other people were murdered by Muslims shouting “Alahu Akhbar”.

The beheading and two of the murders took place in Nice in the Church of Notre Dame.

An Israeli professional soccer team, Hapoel BerSheva, was staying in a hotel next door to the attack. After the attack, they requested additional security.

In Jedda, Saudi Arabia the French embassy was attacked. A French guard stationed at the embassy was stabbed and hospitalized. That attacker also shouted “Alahu Akhbar”.

France is trying to crack down on Islamic extremists.

They are also defending the freedom to discuss and critique cartoons that depict Muhammed. Cartoons are the excuse for these murderers, just like it was the excuse for the mass murders that took place in the office of the magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2015.

Turkey has condemned France. The Palestinians are declaring a national Day of Rage against France’s anti-Islamic crackdown.

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US Passports Will Say Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It is going to be officially announced soon - maybe you’ve already heard.

The United States, under President Donald J. Trump, will now permit US citizens born in Jerusalem to list the country Israel as their place of birth.

Until now, if a baby, the child of a United States citizen, was born in Jerusalem, their passport would list Jerusalem under “city of birth. And under “country of birth” it would be BLANK.

There would be no country of birth because, according to US policy, Jerusalem was still in question and in doubt.

That ended in December of 2017 when the United States recognized that Jerusalem was the capital of Israel.

This is a slam dunk issue. In 2015 the US Supreme Court ruled that Congress does not have the power to determine foreign policy and recognize capitals. In practical terms, it means that the President of the United States can decide to put Israel on US passports because Jerusalem is indeed located in Israel.

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Iran's Spy Ship Saviz
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Saviz is officially a merchant ship registered to Iran.

It has been suggested by intelligence analysts that the Saviz is really an intelligence ship monitoring and transmitting everything they see.

The ship is anchored at the southern end of the Red Sea, off the coast of Yemen and the Straits of Bab el Mandeb.

The location is a choke hold for oil and goods as they make their way going both to Europe through the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Rad Sea and going off to Africa and Asia coming South.

There are two undeniable proofs that the Saviz is an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Intel ship. First, we see them on the ship in their uniforms. Second, the ship has barely moved in 3 years. It just sits and observes.

Monitoring every single ship that enters and exits the Red Sea provides Iran with a treasure trove of intelligence.

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New Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Yair Lapid, the head of the opposition in Israel’s Knesset and the leader of the Yesh Atid party, has said that if a budget is not passed by next week he will propose a vote of No Confidence in the Knesset.

Lapid is convinced that the vote will pass and the Netanyahu government will fall.
His former party affiliates in Blue and White have promised to vote for the No Confidence vote.

If successful - and there is a very high probability that the vote of No Confidence will, indeed, succeed Israel will go to new elections once again.

What it really means is that Israel has lost confidence in Netanyahu. Israelis have also lost confidence in Blue and White.

If there is another election, I predict a very different mosaic in terms of the parties that will be forming a government.

The moderates have disbanded. There will be a rise of the right. That means Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked will emerge as king makers, not Avigdor Lieberman who held that role in the past few elections. It will mean the near dissolution of Blue and White as well as Lieberman’s party.

Let’s see what happens next week.

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ISIS in Sinai
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

A branch of ISIS has been terrorizing the residents of the Sinai Peninsula.

In July they attacked a series of villages in Northern Sinai, planting explosives in the homes of residents.

The Egyptian army cleared out the villages. ISIS evacuated – that means they left without conflict. But the Egyptian army neglected to sweep for boobytraps.

Over the past few weeks, 14 people have been killed by explosives planted in their homes by ISIS.

This entire experience proves several axioms.

ISIS is bent on murdering as many innocent people as they can. They planted explosives for that very reason.

The Egyptian army was totally outsmarted by ISIS. They should have had their sappers sweep every home and every site for explosives.

People have been murdered. The murderers, ISIS, are smiling. This must not happen again.

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Sports The Great Peace Equalizer
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The real measure of success of a peace deal is … sports.

And now that Israel and the UAE have signed normalization agreements, sports competitions have begun.

On Sunday, Maccabi Haifa Football Club announced a cooperation agreement with the United Arab Emirates' Al-Ain Football Club. They will play a friendly match in Abu Dhabi very soon. The exact date has not yet been set.

Maccabi owner Yaakov Schachar summed it up this way: "I am happy to inform you that our club has been invited to hold a friendly soccer match called the 'Game of Peace', in Abu Dhabi …. I have always believed it was possible to develop friendly relations through sports. We will sign a memorandum of understanding between the two clubs. In a matter of days to create a relationship that will include collaborations on both the sporting and business side."

Al-Ain is the UAE’s national winning team. They have won the local championship 13 times and the Super Cup five times. In 2018, they lost to Real Madrid in the final of the Club World Cup. Real Madrid is the European champions, so even losing to them is an honor.

This will be a great football match. More than that, it is a big step forward towards forging real peace between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

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Israel to Test 100,000/day
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced a new policy vis a vis COVID testing. By next month, they will be testing 100,000 people every day for COVID.

The change in policy includes people being able to take tests without a doctor’s prescription which has been standard policy until now.

There are 9.2 million citizens of Israel. If Israel is able to test 100,000 every day, that means every 92 days, every Israeli will be tested.

The new testing will make Israel more capable of catching the virus early and of isolating those who are contagious.

The most critical part of stymying the virus is identifying those who have it and keeping those who are infected from spreading it to others.

Israel might have found the answer.

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Secret Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, the United States, Israel and Bahrain officially signed their agreement. Seconds after the document was signed, an Israeli official handed the Bahraini foreign minister a note.

It was an official request to open an Israeli embassy.

It was to be a simple procedure. All the infrastructure was in place. There has been a secret Israeli embassy in Bahrain since 2009.

The secret embassy had been set up as a development consultancy working to help non-oil companies advance business deals in Bahrain. The company was called “The Center for International Development”.

On the board were Israeli diplomats who now serve as Israel’s Counsel General in Mumbai, Israel’s Foreign Ministry Cyber Coordinator and the Deputy Director of Economic Affairs. They all had false backgrounds and LinkedIn pages.

Bahrain and Israel have been secretly engaged in economic development as well as anti-terror coordination and anti-Iranian strategy for over a decade. That’s essential to understand.

Ever since Qatar closed itself to Israel and to the rest of the Sunni world and joined forces with Iran – Bahrain knew they needed this Israeli advantage.

Kudos to Bahrain.

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Israel: Next Lockdown Hanukah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It has been a difficult month for Israelis. The month of the High Holidays and Sukkot are normally a time for family and fun even some relaxation.

This year it was spent in lockdown.

Now, slowly, Israel is opening up. Kindergartens and nursery schools. Essential businesses. Public transport is operating and people are permitted to visit family. Within a week or two, life should be back in full swing.

The contagion rate is 3% and the situation is looking very good. But if the contagion rate increases, Israel will snap back the restrictions.

Now the big challenge is Hanukah. What happens during Hanukah? Hanukah, like the High Holidays and Sukkot is a two week celebratory period (even though Hanukah itself is only 8 days) when Israelis travel, have family events and party.

As you read this, Israel’s decision makers are discussing how to lock Israel down during Hanukah to prevent a COVID spike.

If they asked, I would say the best way is to keep those people who are high risk away from everyone else. It sounds awful. It sounds heartless. But the best way to save those who are most likely to suffer is to make certain that the older people you love do not come into contact with potential carriers.

As a policy it sounds discriminatory. It is.

But de facto, this how people behave to protect themselves. People knew that when they were not feeling well, they did not go out. So, too, now.

Unfortunately, this season, flu shots are not readily available for the entire population in Israel. What would be a second line of health defense is not there.

An educational campaign should be launched to protect the vulnerable and remind young and old alike how to convey their love at a safe distance.

Go out only when necessary and properly protected. Wash hands and keep safe distance. It should be rote for all of us by now.

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Sacha Baron Cohen Humor/Critique
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched the tape of Sacha Baron Cohen, or Borat as he is best known to the world, on Jimmy Kimmel Live.

I thought it was truly hilarious. His Borat 2 is coming out on Oct 23rd on Amazon. The theme of this movie is about ridiculous and crazy anti-Semitism.

Sacha Baron Cohen remains in his Borat character for the entire interview and flips into Hebrew phrases, just like he did in his original movie in 2006.

Kimmel asks Borat/Cohen about COVID. He replies, "comes from a place called Wuhan, which is in Israel".

We hear laughter, it’s a funny response. But more than laughs, Cohen was making a point. As Borat, he was making fun of people who actually believe that Israel is responsible for the virus. The interview continues with a health questionnaire in which Borat asks Kimmel how many Jews he had been around. Kimmel’s response was “all our writers are Jewish and none of our cameramen.”

Some might find this distasteful and, paradoxically, even anti-Semitic. NO! It is Cohen’s vehicle of critique. Sacha Baron Cohen is flabbergasted that people, normal people, hold these beliefs and the medium he uses to teach and critique is humor and film. It is no different than what Charlie Chaplin did in “The Great Dictator”.

Sacha Baron Cohen has written op-eds and spoken to groups. But there is no comparing the reach and the power of those messages with the reach and the power of a blockbuster movie.

In Borat 2, Cohen also addresses Holocaust denial. He interviewed real Holocaust survivors. Some were offended afterwards - I can understand their offense. How can the Holocaust be funny? It isn’t funny, but there is an entire genre of humor that Jewish victims shared with one another in the midst of the atrocities. For them, it was a survival tool.

Humor is a vehicle of critique and communication. Sometimes it’s good humor, sometimes it’s tasteless. It always has a message.

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UAE Musician Plays Hatikvah
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 19, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmed al-Mansouri, a musician from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), played Israel’s national anthem, Hatikvah, on his oud – an eleven-stringed guitar-like musical instrument popular in the Arab world. He taped his rendition of the anthem and then posted it on YouTube. Al-Mansouri was paying tribute to the normalization agreement between the Jewish state and the UAE.

Ynet, easily tracked him down. They spoke on air about the Israel/UAE agreement, the responses he received to his tribute and the significance of music in shaping a world built on unity and peace.

In the interview Al Mansouri said that he would love to play together with an Israeli musician, on air, hosted by the interviewer. The Israeli newscaster said that he would arrange it and taught the UAE musician the Yiddish-Hebrew word “Schiduch” which means a match.

Al Mansouri told Ynet that: “Once I heard about the agreement between the UAE and Israel I decided to play the national anthem of Israel on the oud, to send a message of peace between the two countries … It is a dream for me, and I hope one day to visit Israel and play in public there”.

Speaking about Israeli music, al Mansouri said that he learned it from Youtube. He said he likes it and added: “In my opinion, Israeli music is very beautiful, it is similar to Arabic music in a different taste."

This is just one example of how people, regular people, not famous people, are expressing their excitement about the new horizons opening up between Israel and the Arab world. On YouTube, again, I saw another example. People, driving in a car on a busy highway in the UAE are happily singing the Israeli national anthem.

All the while imprinted on the screen are the words United Arab Emirates.

Israeli and UAE artists have already jointly recorded and posted songs. One of those songs received 1.1 million clicks in just a few weeks. The song is now trending and has gone viral.

Going back to the Ynet interview, the newscaster commented that this agreement seems so natural. He’s right - it does not seem forced at all. Actually, from Oct 17th to the 20th a team of Americans, headed by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, spent time in Israel and the UAE in order to further assist in commercial projects that will benefit all the parties.

This is a prime example of the famous quote: a rising tide lifts all boats. This expression is often attributed to John F Kennedy in a speech he gave in 1963. But his speech writer, Ted Sorenson, said that while he did write it into JFK’s speech, it is not original to either one of them. Sorenson borrowed the phrase from a report by the Economical Council of New England.

Partnerships, that’s what it’s all about.

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Saturday Night in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 18, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Saturday nights, in Jerusalem, protests take place outside the official resident of the prime minister.

About 10,000 people attend.

Most people don’t wear masks and there is no social distancing. Most of the people are young, but there are some more mature people in attendance.

Protest organizers claim that these Jerusalem protests are deliberately kept small and controlled. They assert that every Saturday night, throughout the country, there are other small protests that take place. They say that the number of Saturday night protestors totals 260,000.

The protests began months ago and now there seems to be a groundswell.

Polls show that Netanyahu is slipping. He is facing challenges from his rightwing flank. His political future is anything but secure.

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US Threatens Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The US warned Turkey that there will be “potential serious consequences” if they activate the S-400 Russian anti-aircraft anti-missile systems that they purchased and received.

The “consequences” will be a breakdown of relations between the United States and Turkey. It will also mean a breakdown of relations between NATO and Turkey.

Using Russian weapons is a clear violation of NATO membership. The US could recommend that NATO oust Turkey.

US State department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said that: "If confirmed, we would condemn in the strongest terms the S-400 test missile launch as incompatible with Turkey’s responsibilities as a NATO ally and strategic partner of the United States."

Turkey is pushing the envelope.

The Erdogan government is flirting with Russia and Iran and they are testing the US and NATO to see how will respond and how serious the response will be. Turkey is betting that NATO will not care and that they will get the best of both NATO and Russia.

I think that Turkey is underestimating both NATO and the United States.

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Cyber Attack Hits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has confirmed that on Tuesday and Wednesday they were targeted by a computer hack.

They said that two targets were attacked and that in order to make certain that everything is safe, they took other offices of the grid.

Since Stuxnet, Iran has made their systems independent. They have nothing on the internet. Everything internal.

This attack was very effective. They did not hide it from the public, Iranian media covered the hack.

If I were managing a cyber attack I would use the small attacks on the two agencies as a ploy. I would watch as Iran shut down and rebooted several of what would be my more significant targets. Watching, and maybe even injecting spyware.

Whatever attacked Iran, it is highly sophisticated. No doubt it will strike again.

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Liz Taylor & Cleopatra
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli actress model Gal Gadot, who became a household name after starring as Wonder Woman, will now star as Cleopatra in a new remake of the 1963 blockbuster movie originally starring Liz Taylor.

The response to the announcement about Gadot’s new role has met with criticism by the Muslim world which is claiming that “Israel has stolen our land, now they are stealing our heroes!”

When the 1963 movie came out, Egypt banned the screening and put Liz Taylor on a no - fly list. It was the most expensive movie to be made at that time and Elizabeth Taylor earned $1 million in her lead role.

Elizabeth Taylor converted to Judaism in 1957 to marry the famous and popular singer Eddie Fisher. She became a major supporter of Israel buying a $100,000 Israel bond and raising over a million dollars for Israel.

Historically, Cleopatra was not actually Egyptian. She was Ptolemaic. Her father was from Macedon. Her mother was unknown.

In the end, Egyptians were so impressed by the response to the film that they did a major turnaround. The movie mentioned Egypt 122 times and it earned 4 Oscars.
Despite Liz Taylor’s love of Israel and even her visit to Israel, Egypt lifted its ban on the movie Cleopatra.

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Herd Immunity
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

We are hearing a lot about “herd immunity”. It requires some explanation.
Never in history has herd immunity been a strategy for confronting a disease, an epidemic or a pandemic. Herd immunity is a result of a vaccination policy.

Let’s take measles, for example. Because 95% of the population is vaccinated, the other 5% are mostly protected. That 5% is composed of infants and others who cannot be given the vaccine.

Even in cases where the minimum percentage of herd immunity is less, like polio - where it is 80%, the principle is predicated on the vaccine.

The suggestion that people be exposed to COVID – 19 so that they develop herd immunity is just absurd. Or to suggest that they are already immune because others around them have been ill, is just absurd.

In the United States 8 million people, out of 328 million people, have been exposed. That is a 0.3% of the total population. About 10% of the world has been exposed.

The only way to get to herd immunity is with a vaccination and even then, the vaccine needs to be a blanket covering well over 80% of the population.
Self-delusion and made-up excuses are not an excuse for caution and proper conduct.

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Statue of A/S Lueger
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

A statue of the man who served as mayor of Vienna from 1897 to 1910 was defaced when the word SCHANDE was scrawled on the monument. SCHANDE means “shame on you” in German. Ironically, it also means “shame on you” in Yiddish.

Mayor Karl Lueger was a racist. He was the role model for Hitler. During his tenure as mayor, Vienna was one of the largest cities in the world with a population of over 2 million people.

Nowadays, debates about the appropriateness of statues is commonplace. In the United States statues erected to honor people now considered racist are regularly toppled and destroyed.

Lueger was a racist. He was a self-declared racist. Writers and philosophers use Lueger as the model of a racist. A racist cult of character has grown with Lueger at its center.

But in 1926, Vienna erected the statue to honor Karl Lueger. It represented Vienna as it was then and there is still an undertone of anti-Semitism in Vienna to this day.

The statue of Karl Lueger has not been taken down for a reason. In Vienna there are still many who have very positive feelings about the racism of Karl Lueger.

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Israeli Sings w Iranians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Liraz Charhi has just finished her second album. She is an Israeli actress and singer, of Persian decent.

For this album, Liraz had Iranian women from Iran singing with her. She used encrypted chats and encrypted social media. She sent money to her back-up singers through third countries. And she was petrified that they would be discovered.

“Technically, it was very difficult” Charhi, 42, said in an interview. “But emotionally, it was much more difficult. I felt night after night that I was doing a bad thing and these people could be arrested.”

In the end Liraz Charhi fulfilled her dream.

She is a strong believer that the real problem in Iran is Iranian leadership, not Iranians.

What a remarkable story.

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Egypt Broadcasts Israeli FM Speech
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

In Berlin on Tuesday October 6 Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi met with his UAE counterpart, Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, along with their German host Heiko Mass.

In what has become commonplace in the new world we live in, the group visited Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial. Gabi Ashkenazi is the son of Holocaust survivors.

What was extra ordinary is that, on the Gregorian calendar, the visit took place on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

The Israeli FM’s speech was broadcast live on Egyptian TV.

Peace between Israel and Egypt has been swung between cold to cool. Over recent years, once Egypt’s President Al Sisi took office, the relationship between leaders has warmed up. Al Sisi has welcomed the normalization of the Gulf states with Israel as a very good step forward.

However, the media and the masses have been consistently cold and angry at anything related to Israel. This broadcast of Israel’s foreign minister on an Egyptian network called Extra might be a dramatic change.

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Frm Saudi Spy Head Critique of PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief and ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz, is a living and breathing institution. He has been in his role for decades. In both of his positions his fingers were on the pulse of everything, small and large, that was happening in the world.

A 3-part interview was conducted with him on Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television.
The first episode aired on Monday.

The most significant element in the Prince’s interview was his critique of Palestinian leadership over the past decades. He called the PA’s criticism of the agreements that both the UAE and Bahrain made with Israel a "transgression" and "reprehensible discourse".

Saudi Arabia is not about to be the next country to normalize with Israel, but they are getting closer and closer.

Prince Bandar, as he is always called in the United States, said that the Palestinians and their backers always are on the wrong side. And yet, he reminded them, Saudi kings have supported the Palestinian Authority for decades - despite the PA’s errors.

As an interesting aside, Prince Bandar’s daughter, Reema, is the current Saudi Ambassador to the United States.

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Erdogan Claims Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

President Erdogan of Turkey addressed the opening session of his parliament and announced that Jerusalem was their city. That they, the Ottomans, controlled Jerusalem for centuries.

Erdogan said: “In this city, which we had to leave in tears during the First World War, it is still possible to come across traces of the Ottoman resistance. So, Jerusalem is our city, a city from us.”

While it is true that the Ottomans controlled Jerusalem from 1516 until 1917 and the end of WWI when they were ousted by the British, it is hardly their city.

Much of Erdogan’s opening remarks were dedicated to the Palestinians. It was
strangely eerie to read his words. His presentation sounded like a speech from 1980 - not 2020. This is a new era and there are only two vocal rejecters of this new era. They are Iran and Turkey.

Saudi Arabia has also stepped up and come out distancing themselves from Erdogan and his politics. Saudi business leaders have called for a total boycott of Turkey. There are tensions in the region and Turkey seems determined to stoke them.

Erdogan feels that Turkey will be stronger because they are rejecting Israel and the US. There will be short term benefits, but in the end, his is a losing strategy.

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Biden Says In-Sh'Allah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

“In-sh’Allah” in Arabic means “God willing” or if “God wills it.”

It is the same as “Im Yirtzeh Hashem” in Hebrew or “Siyata D’ishmaya” in Aramaic.

All nice expressions – but certainly not a part of the American vernacular.

So imagine my surprise when I heard the expression “In-sh’Allah” coming out of the mouth of former Vice President Joe Biden during the presidential debate against President Donald Trump.

It happened under the talk-overs, you had to be paying careful attention to catch it. Biden asked Trump about making his complete taxes accessible to the public and while Trump was talking, Biden muttered “In-sh’Allah”.

In colloquial Arabic the expression can also mean a sarcastic “yeah, like that will ever happen.” Something akin to “when hell freezes over”.

It was certainly a prepared and rehearsed line and it was directed at Arabic and Muslim voters who see Trump as far too pro-Israel.

The internet lit up - especially twitter. People are still tweeting about that split second comment.

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NYC Fining Non Mask Wearers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio announced that the city will start fining people who are not wearing masks.

The mayor is particularly targeting Hareidi communities, but other communities and neighborhoods are also being inspected.

Until now many Hareidi neighborhoods have been totally non-compliant - to the point that they believed that COVID was over and that they had herd immunity.

But things are changing. People have begun to wear masks.

The fines can be up to $1000.

Over the past few weeks NYC is testing at 3% positive of all tests. That is a huge increase after months during which the positive rate was way below 1%.

Hopefully, the fines and the threat of fines and the presence of inspectors will jolt more and more people back into wearing masks.

It’s all about compliance – that’s how we save lives.

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What Does Sudan Want?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Observers of the Middle East have speculated that Sudan will be the next country to normalize with Israel.

It is a good bet. Behind the scenes, however, there are some stumbling blocks.

According to the US, Sudan is still a state sponsor of terrorism. But the United States is dangling the carrot in front of Sudan by promising to remove Sudan from their terrorist list if the country moves forward with plans for normalization with Israel.

Sudan was put on the list because of its previous dictator, Omar al Bashir, who was in power for 30 years, from 1989 - 2019. Al Bashir gained power as a general in a coup. The list of his human rights atrocities inside Sudan and acts of terror outside his borders are too many to list here.

It would make sense for the United States to drop Sudan from their list. Except that, on Saturday, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said that he does not want that link.

That probably means that he wants something bigger and better.
Dropping them from the list would allow foreign aid to a country in need. What could be better? We will probably find out soon.

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UAE Signs an Israeli Soccer Player
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is changing so quickly and in so many ways.
Dubai has signed Dia Saba, an Israeli soccer player, to a three year contact at $3 million. He will play for the UAE club Al Nasr SC.

Dia Saba currently plays for the Chinese club Guangzhou R&F. He has played for them for three and a half years. He still plays for the Israeli national team in international competition.

Before signing with China, Dia Saba played for the Israeli team Hapoel Beersheba.
The significance of this soccer deal is that sports is the ultimate equalizer.

In the Middle East soccer is almost more popular than God. This move shows just how easy it is to normalize relations.

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Another Arab Country to Normalize w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, US Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft told al Arabiyah, the largest international Arab cable television network, that she expects that at least one additional Arab country will join the UAE and Bahrain in normalizing relations with Israel.

There is little doubt that it will be either Oman or Sudan.

Unlike many other Arab networks, al Arabiyah has no agenda and can be trusted. I was a commentator for them for several years.

On Wednesday, the leaders of Sudan finished a meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Abu Dhabi. It was reported – not by al Arabiyah, that no agreement was concluded. That report may or may not prove to be true.
Oman is also waiting to announce their agreement.

The Palestinians are up in arms, unable and unwilling to recognize this dramatic shift in the Arab world.

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PA Resigns Chair of Arab League
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians were scheduled to chair the Arab League meetings for the next 6 months.

They resigned the chairmanship.

The Palestinians failed to convince the Arab League to condemn the UAE and Bahrain for committing to peace treaties with Israel.

They said that the treaties were an abandonment of the long-held agreement among Arab countries not to recognize Israel.

Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki told a news conference in the West Bank city of Ramallah that they were resigning the chairmanship. He said: “Palestine has decided to concede its right to chair the League’s council (of foreign ministers) at its current session. There is no honor in seeing Arabs rush towards normalization during its presidency.”

Maliki then read from a letter he sent to Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit informing him of the Palestinian move and criticizing the UAE and Bahrain, both Gulf Arab nations.

He said that peace deals with Israel "created a deep crisis in the Arab League."

This is a typical Palestinian response. They are hurting themselves in the hope that by hurting themselves, people will take notice.

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Another Huge Explosion in Leb
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Another huge explosion in Lebanon.

This time, seven weeks after the first Beirut blast, the explosion was in an arms storage depot in the village of Ain Qana, just north of the port city of Sidon.

Two unauthorized sources say that the explosion, which was heard by other villages miles away, was triggered by a mishap.

Video shows a huge plume of black smoke.

The unauthorized sources also report that this very large weapons depot was located in the residential area of the village. The weapons belonged to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is a Shiite terror group that is sponsored by Iran. Hezbollah fights in Syria on Iran’s behalf and has wrested near total control of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s religious leadership and membership is motivated by an oath all members gladly make to destroy Israel.

So yes, it could have been a mishap. It could have been sabotage. It could have been a mission carried out by the Israeli Mossad.

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Honduras To Open Emb in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Honduras announced that they will be opening an embassy in Jerusalem by the end of the year.

The announcement came on the twitter account of the Honduran president.
President Hernandez wrote: "To strengthen our strategic alliance, we spoke to arrange the opening of the embassies in Tegucigalpa and Jerusalem, respectively." He continued: "We hope to take this historic step before the end of the year, as long as the pandemic allows it."

This announcement follows last week’s announcements by both Serbia and Kosovo about their hope to open their embassies in Jerusalem.

A good number of other countries have announced their intention to move their embassies to Jerusalem. They include, Brazil, Hungary, Moldova and Romania.

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Rosh Hashanah
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 18, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It’s Rosh Hashanah.
Another year has passed and a new one is upon us.
This, however, was no normal year – we all know that.
Traditions ground us and gives us stability. But this year, almost all traditions were thrown away, altered and re-shaped to meet the demands of our new reality.
Loss and crises flood my memory as I prepare for a new year.
And I wonder – can the community, any community, our community, sustain itself through another year like the one that is ending. And indeed, next year will be a year filled with the crisis called COVID-19. It will be different. Not the same crisis. But it would be naďve to think that this is all gone.
COVID is rolling back into certain areas with a vengeance. Those who thought the pandemic was waning thought wrong and arrogantly.
I know that our community must adapt to the change and to the risks involved. Real changes. Changes that include technology and changes that focus on services. Changes that will be hands-on, changes that will be small group oriented and changes that will be online.
Communities need to truly assess what they need. And then they need to go about raising the funds and implementing the programs that will achieve their goals.
Figuring that out is one of the most important items on my thought list as we enter the new year. May it be a Shannah Tovah, a good and healthy and productive year, for us all.

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Palestinian Israelis Love the Peace Accords
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The sides have been drawn. Those in favor and those against the Abraham Accords.

The Palestinians have made their discontent known to all who will listen.
But what about Palestinian Arabs that live in the State of Israel? They have been totally silent. And there is a good reason for that silence.

Palestinians citizens of Israel understand the tremendous benefits brought about by the agreement between the UAE and Israel.

Personal benefits.
Business opportunities.

Several Palestinians with Israeli citizenship have already opened Palestinian restaurants in the UAE. Others see tourism opportunities. Still others see educational and college opportunities.

And some Palestinian Israelis are hoping to culturally translate Israel to UAE and Bahraini leaders in business and politics. They know Hebrew and understand the Israeli mindset and they know Arabic and understand the Arabic world.

They see an opportunity that is expanding way beyond the tiny borders of Israel – which has already tremendously expanded past the borders enclosing Palestinians who are not citizens of Israel.

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The Abraham Accords
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Tuesday was a historic day at the White House. The Abraham Accords were signed between the UAE, Israel and the US.

As we know. is following suit and it looks like Oman will be next on the list. And that may well happen in the next week.

Oman will not be long before joining the illustrious group.

Lolwah Alkhate, Qatar's Assistant Foreign Minister, said his nation is not planning to join Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in normalizing ties with Israel.

Over the past three years Qatar has moved out of the Sunni sphere of influence.

They were at odds with the UAE and other Sunni states like Saudi Arabia when they joined Iran’s side. Qatar rejected the position of the Gulf States on Iran.

They want Arab countries to support Iran and relieve pressure being put on them by the United States.

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Israel Must Be a Bi Partisan Issue
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu flew in and out of Washington, DC to participate in the Abraham Accords singing ceremony.

Netanyahu spent time in the White House with President Trump. It is no secret that the two men are friends.

We have been told that while in the United States, Netanyahu did not reach out to Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate.

If that is indeed true, Netanyahu needs to correct that oversight.

He can call from the plane. He can call from Jerusalem immediately upon his return home.

No matter who wins the US presidential election, Israel must have access and the Prime Minister of Israel and he must be on very friendly terms.

If their relationship is not strong and secure, the potential damage is incalculable.

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More In Line For Peace Train
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

First UAE then Kosovo now Bahrain.

And now Oman. Oman state media issued a statement saying that Oman welcomed Bahrain's decision to normalize relations with Israel and hopes it will contribute to Israeli-Palestinian peace.

In one weekend, from a Friday to a Sunday, two Arab countries followed UAE. And earlier in the week Kosovo, a Muslim country, did the same. That makes it three countries in one week.

The Bahraini government statement read:
"Bahrain hopes this new strategic path taken by some Arab countries will contribute to bringing about a peace based on an end to the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and on establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as capital."

A few days after the UAE / Israel accord was announced on Aug. 13, Israel’s intelligence minister explained that Oman could also formalize ties with the country. Oman has welcomed the UAE and Bahraini decisions but has not commented on its own prospects for normalized relations.

Such statements are normally seen as the final steps in the process. In this case they are the first public statements, but they are also the last country to come out after long and secret talks with Israel.

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Iran in War Games
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I just finished watching videos of Iranian war games. I saw military drills and exercises that took place over three days in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.

The drills covered about 800 square miles. Included in the exercise were the
Iranian air force, navy and army. There were jet fighters, drones, helicopters, submarines and of course, ground forces. Iranian Special Forces swam and invaded land targets. Surface-to-surface missiles were shot and surface-to-air and air-to-surface missiles were all tested in what Iranian military considered real battle conditions.

It was impressive.
It was meant to impress.

The US 5th Fleet was right there watching. The US took no action. The US made no comment.

Tensions are always high in the area. But now, with Gulf countries waiting in line to recognize Israel, Iran is feeling their dream of a united Muslim world confronting the West crumbling down.

There is little chance that Iran’s dream will re-emerge – not even as a talking point among most of the Muslim world.

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Sri Lankan Gift Taken in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 10, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Sri Lanka donated about three and a half thousand pounds of tea to the victims of the explosion that devastated Beirut.

Many domestic workers in Lebanon are Sri Lankan ex-patriots. Sri Lanka feels close to Lebanon and they feel their pain.

Sri Lanka produces some of the best tea in the world and they believe that tea has healing properties. Their donation was thought through and it was significant.

But instead of going to victims, the president of Lebanon gave the tea to his family and to the presidential guard and their families.

On August 24th the office of President Aoun of Lebanon released a picture showing him with the Sri Lankan ambassador, and quoted her as saying that Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, had "donated 1,675 kilos (3,685 pounds) of Ceylon tea to those affected by the Beirut blast".

Not everyone was pleased. "The tea was sent to the Lebanese, particularly those affected by the explosion. Of course it wasn't a present for those who don't need it," tweeted Paula Yacoubian, a former Lebanese member of parliament who resigned after the blast. She, like many other Lebanese, blame the explosion on the neglect of Lebanese leadership.

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Chad May Open Emb in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Chad is a country in central northern Africa. It is a majority Muslim country.
And now, Chad is considering opening an embassy in Jerusalem.

This week a high-level delegation from Chad visited Jerusalem. They met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday. During the meeting, Netanyahu said: “I do not only want to mark the relations between our countries, but to promote them even more.”

This will not be the first time Chad had an embassy in Israel.

After the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Chad closed their embassy and cut off ties with Israel. They were one of 30 African countries that cut ties with Israel in ‘73.

And then, in 2018 the president of Chad visited Israel and Netanyahu visited Chad in 2019.

Chad realizes how useful good diplomatic, economic and tech relations with Israel can be. They will almost certainly open their embassy in Jerusalem sometime soon.

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Suha Arafat In Favor of UAE Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Suha Arafat, the widow of Yasser Arafat, has come out in favor of the Israel / UAE peace deal.

Suha also apologized to the UAE for the disrespect Palestinian have shown the UAE, UAE leaders and UAE symbols.

Suha did not mention any names, but she did say that while she has received threats from many Palestinians because of her pro-peace deal comments, she has not been threatened by Palestinian President Abbas.

On her Instagram account Suha Arafat posted the following: “In the name of all the noble Palestinians, I am apologising for the UAE people and leadership for the profanation [sic] and burning of their flag in Jerusalem and Palestine and for insulting the symbols of the beloved UAE.”

On Egyptian TV where Suha appeared twice, speaking about the threats she received from Palestinian leadership, she had a message for those leaders. She said: do not touch my monthly stipend of $11, 830.

Arafat also appeared on Israeli TV station Kan and explained how important the deal was and that Palestinians have not yet realized that this is a game changer.

Good for Suha Arafat. She is taking a stand and is not afraid of the ramifications.

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2 More to Open Emb in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, at a ceremony in the White House, Serbia and Kosovo agreed to normalize economic ties between their countries.

And in the middle of that signing ceremony, both Serbia and Kosovo agreed to establish embassies in Jerusalem.

Kosovo will be the first majority Muslim country to open an embassy in Jerusalem.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made an announcement soon after the DC ceremony saying that: “Kosovo will be the first country with a Muslim majority to open an embassy in Jerusalem ... As I’ve said in recent days - the circle of peace and recognition of Israel is expanding and more countries are expected to join.”

These are powerful moments in history.

But not everyone was pleased. Turkey expressed disappointment. Palestinian leadership said that they would cut ties with countries that open embassies in Jerusalem or establish ties with Israel.

To date, only the United States and Guatemala have opened embassies in Jerusalem.

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Iran's Abuses
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

This week Amnesty International released a report stating that following the
November 2019 protests in Iran, many of those thought to be involved in the protest had been arrested and tortured and sexually abused.

The immediate reason for the protests was a 200% increase in the price of gasoline. People took to the streets. They also created traffic jams by stopping their cars on busy streets causing huge backups. The protests spread across over 100 cities in Iran.

Iranian security services were sent to crush the protests. Those who were supposed to defend the right of the citizens against abuse, were silent.

The internet, which was the vehicle through which the protestors communicated, was shut down for an entire week. No internet - total black out. No communication – and the protests disappeared.

The Amnesty report was disturbing but not surprising. Iran is a human right abuser on par with China and North Korea.

This report is an important reminder, we need to remember what kind of country Iran is and what Iran stands for.

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COVID Spikes in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

COVID is spiking in Israel. Over 3000 cases in 24 hours – 2 days in a row.
Deaths have reached 1,000.

Several cities, towns and neighborhoods are the centers of contagion. They are called Red Zones. Their numbers skew national numbers. As a result, the national numbers, with an almost 10% contagion rate, are extremely worrisome. The Covorna Virus Cabinet just shut them down and sealed them off from the rest of Israel.

If those communities are not brought under control, authorities will be forced to institute another national lockdown. And soon - possibly even before Rosh Hashanah.

The Hareidi community and the Arab community are neither going to be tested nor are they complying with protocols. They claim herd immunity, but they are getting sick.

Several very prestigious leading rabbis have called for their communities not to test for fear that their schools will be closed. They are convinced that the testing and high COVID positive numbers will cause others to have a negative opinion of the Hareidi community.

800 students from the Hareidi yeshiva world tested positive yesterday. The number is, in actuality, much higher because many students did not test. That is about 30% of all COVID positives in Israel from a community that is only 10% of the population. The percentage is even higher when you take into account their age group, 18-25. In that group, these 800 positive Hareidi yeshiva students probably comprise over 50% of the Israel’s positives.

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Iran & the Internet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Average Iranians crave the internet – especially young Iranians.

Religious leadership in Iran, on the other hand, has clamped down on the internet, they have blocked access to the internet. They filter everything, especially social media. They even block game sites. And last year they shut down the internet for a week in order to prevent protestors demanding a change in religious leadership, from communicating,

TunnelBear is a company that provides VPN. VPN stands for virtual personal network. It is a program that makes it appear as if you are on your computer in a location that is different from your actual location. When an Iranian uses a VPN, government filters do not work.

TunnelBear is giving 10GB of free VPN, which is about 800 hours of web surfing, to every Iranian. They are also persuading other VPN providers to offer free services to Iranians.

The problem is that in order to get a VPN, you first need to get online. So TunnelBear has created a way to get onto the internet without using an Iranian host.

This move is a deal changer. Access to an unfiltered internet might possibly bring about the fall of the religious regime in Iran.

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Iranian Jew Hatred
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

For years Iran has insisted that they hate Israel, not Jews.

But this is what the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah, had to say about Jared Kushner:

"The UAE along with Israelis and evil Americans like the Jewish member of Trump's family are working together against the interests of the Islamic world ... I hope Emiratis wake up and pay for what they did."

Khamenei was, of course, referring to Kushner, Donald Trump’s Jewish son-in-law.

This just proves what we already surmised. All the Iranian rhetoric about being merely anti-Zionist, not anti-Semitic is simply veneer maintained to hide their deep-rooted hatred of all Jews - not just those Jews who live in Israel.

The Supreme Leader’s comments were broadcast on Iranian TV.

They included a tongue lasing of the UAE: "Of course, the UAE's betrayal will not last long, but this stigma will always be remembered. They allowed the Zionist regime to enter the region and forgot Palestine …The Emiratis will be disgraced forever."

Israel and the UAE united in order to confront Iran. Iran was never a friend of the Gulf nation or of any Arab nation. That is now abundantly clear. They only pretended to be, Iranian leadership told lies of convenience.

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Jordan COVID Spikes
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 31, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

This past week has seen a huge increase in COVID cases in Jordan which until now, had the virus under control and contained.

Just on Sunday 73 new cases of COVID were reported. That is the highest number of daily cases since the pandemic started.

Thus far, Jordan has only had 15 deaths and 1966 positives since March - so the number 73 is a significant number. Unless they control the contagion quickly, the numbers could exponentially increase daily.

Jordan instituted a nightly curfew, from 11pm to 6 am. Before this, their curfew began ay 1am.

Jordan has also cracked down on movement. Borders are closed and Jordanian authorities are even preventing people from travelling from one city to another.

These are not draconian measures, they are life saving measures.
Joran was successful in keeping people in place which kept down the transmission of the virus. They need to make that happen again.

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Balloon & Kite Bombs
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday night 26 firebomb balloons flew from Gaza into Israel. Most of the fires they created were small and were extinguished by firefighters.

Incendiary balloons and kites are becoming more and more common. They are launched into Israel from Gaza night after night. Israel has struck back hitting the sites that launch and design the bombs. Israel has attacked the headquarters of the groups who perpetrate these attacks.

These attacks are low tech. They cost only pennies to make and do not require sophisticated expertise to launch. Israel has high tech weapons and now they need to go low tech to shoot down these kites and balloons.

The best way to solve the problem is to get Hamas to stop the problem on their end. And that is exactly what Israel is trying to do.

Negotiations are taking place through a 3rd party - Egypt. There is hope. Israel is pressuring Hamas by bombing

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Cuomo Says Stop the Superspreaders
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


NY Governor Andrew Cuomo slammed large gathering within the Jewish community, especially in the New York City Jewish community. He also condemned Catholics for gathering in large numbers.

Cuomo, himself a staunch Catholic, said: “We’ve had superspreader events in New Rochelle with the Jewish community, we’ve had them in the Catholic community.
The virus does not discriminate by religious or racial lines, right? This is an equal-opportunity situation. So we police it in every circumstance.”

Cuomo threatened NYC Mayor Bill Deblasio, demanding that the mayor act against the superspreaders, defined as groups that gather without complying with the safety precautions of keeping safe distance and wearing a mask. The governor said: “If the mayor is not doing any enforcement actions, then the state will.”

Cuomo was not just spouting off, he does have jurisdiction. The governor can, legally, take action in NYC.

Having events with large numbers is simply irresponsible.

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US Livid At Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is not at all pleased that Turkish President Erdogan hosted Hamas leaders. When the US State Department issued a statement of public criticism of Turkey, Turkey immediately rejected the comments.

The US State Department statement said that the Hamas officials were "Specially Designated Global Terrorists" and the United States was seeking information about one member of the delegation, Hamas' military wing founder Saleh al-Arouri, for his involvement in multiple terrorist attacks, hijackings and kidnappings.

The United States and many other countries consider Hamas to be a terrorist organization.

The United States is of the opinion that Erdogan’s meeting with Hamas leaders will hurt Palestinians. The US believes that supporting Hamas over the Palestinian Authority is a mistake.

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Israel's COVID Numbers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The new COVID-19 numbers from Israel are deeply troubling.

The most compelling numbers are truly disturbing. Israel is using the traffic light system to establish procedures in dealing with COVID. That the entire country is not monolithic. Each area is different, and a different policy is required for each place.

Of the thousands of cities towns and villages in Israel – all except 20 are green or yellow. Only 20 are red zones and those cities are divided into regions which are also divided into color zones.

Here is the most troubling dimension of the new COVID -19 numbers. 40% of the positive numbers are from the Chareidi community. 20% of the new positives are from Arab communities.

The 40% is probably much higher. Rabbis in the Chareidi community have urged their members not to test because those results can be used against their community.

Leaders need to be urged to put a stop to large gatherings. People must be urged by their leaders to wear masks.

The COVID-19 numbers will increase if these steps are not taken soon. The economy of Israel is dependent on getting those numbers down.

Tourism cannot return until Israel becomes a green state. Only then Israel will open it doors to countries to other green countries and the tourist dollars will follow.

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Iran Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Remember when I told you that Iran was smuggling oil to Venezuela? Remember that it was a blatant violation of US sanctions against Iran?

Venezuela needed the oil. Even though they are sitting on huge oil reserves, Venezuela is suffering a terrible oil shortage. Their oil industry has been falling apart and is in bad need of replacement parts.

Venezuela is also suffering from US sanctions against Iran. That’s because US sanctions didn’t apply only to oil, they did not permit any oil industry replacement parts either.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro thanked Iran for sending oil and oil factory parts.

In his official statement of thanks to Iran, Maduro suggested that Venezuela will also be purchasing missiles from Iran.

The nexus of Iran and Venezuela does not portend well for the world.

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Turkey Hosts Hamas Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Erdogan hosted a full delegation from Hamas.

That’s unnerving, but not supporting. Turkey supports Hamas financially and politically. And Turkey has even granted citizenship to many Hamas leaders.
Present at the meeting were Hamas leader Ismayel Hanyieh as well as Hamas military wing founder Saleh al-Arouri - who is wanted by the U.S. government.
Also there were the head of Hamas' foreign branch Maher Salah and the group's representative in Turkey, Jihad Yaghmor.

The group went to Turkey to report on the Palestinian situation. The two main topics discussed were Israel’s plan to annex the West Bank and the UAE / Israel peace accord. Interestingly, the Palestinians are still burning about the Israel annexation plan despite the fact that it was shelved by the UAE accord.

Turkey, together with Iran, Hamas and the PA, are among the very few voices to have publicly condemned the UAE Israel agreement.

Turkey has become a sponsor of terror. They have moved into a position parallel to Iran in joining forces with those who oppose the West, especially the US and Israel.

This meeting is just another example of that behavior.

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Ironic & Funny
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

For me some of the irony is so tragic it is hilariously funny.

Tensions are heating up between Israel and Gaza. Hundreds of balloon and kite bombs launched from Gaza have caused fires and caused terrible and costly damage in Israel.

Israel has responded by striking at those terror bases and places from which the kite and balloon bombs are launched.

Escalating the situation, on Thursday night Hamas launched three rockets hoping to strike fear into Israelis beyond those living in communities located on the Gaza border.

But the three rockets never made it out of Gaza – and not because they were shot down or intercepted. They just dropped from the sky. Onto Gaza.
Hamas was trying to send a message to Israel. These rockets were supposed to tell Israel that they, Hamas, have the ability to hit central Israel.

Instead, they demonstrated how inept they are.

Ironic, but funny.

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Peace Train
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The ripples across the international community in the wake of the UAE/Israel peace are beginning to be felt.

There has been virtually no condemnation of the agreement - except from the regular suspects, Palestinians, Iran and Turkey.
Several countries in the Arab world are denying that they are in talks with the Jewish state, but they are - and that too is to be expected.

The reality is that the Arab world is no longer what it once was. The Palestinian issue, once front and center, is now practically irrelevant.

The Arab world has determined that Palestinian leadership is locked into the past, that they do not see and are unwilling to accept the new reality that has emerged – that Israel is here to stay and that Israel is a force to be dealt with.

Palestinian leadership remains steadfast and cannot be coaxed or tempted or convinced that it is better to accept the new reality, which means peace and coexistence, than be locked into an unrealistic hope that Israel will be destroyed by the combined efforts of the pan-Arab society.

The prevalent stance of greater Arab leadership, in the Middle East and beyond the region, is that there is more to gain from Israel than by ignoring or totally rejecting her.

It took a lot of growth and soul searching to reach that conclusion. Kudos to today’s Arab leadership.

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US Destroyed F-14s To Stop Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 19, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I just read a fascinating article about why the United States destroyed their entire fleet of F-14 Tomcats in 2007, after the entire fleet was retired.

Each of the fighter jets could have been sold for parts and would have brought in $38 million each.

The reason President Bush opted to destroy the fleet instead of selling it off was because, when the F-14 Tomcat was in its heyday, the Shah of Iran bought 80 of the planes. After the fall of the Shah, all those planes fell into he hands of the Ayatollah. Iran’s new air-force had the planes after the Islamic Revolution.

President Bush was thinking of the future. He knew that one day those planes would need spare parts.

Iran’s air-force now needs spare parts and because of the decision made way back in 2007, the Iranian air-force has been seriously weakened.

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Hamas Leader Says Kill all Jews
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 18, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

A leading member of Hamas posted a video on Friday that called on all seven million Palestinians in the Diaspora to murder Jews everywhere they live. All seven million.

Fathi Hamad said: “Seven million Palestinians outside, enough warming up, you have Jews with you in every place. You should attack every Jew possible in all the world and kill them.”

Established leadership in the Palestinian Authority condemned the comments. Even Hamas distanced itself from Hamad’s comments, saying that their fight was with the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and was “not a conflict with Jews across the world or Judaism as a religion.”

But the denial of other Palestinian leaders cannot put the genie back into the bottle. This call to murder touched a real chord.

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UAE Summons Iran Dip
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) summoned the Iranian Charge d’Affaires stationed at the Iranian Embassy in Abu Dhabi and issued a stern memo.

The summons came as a result of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s threatening statements concerning the UAE and the new agreement emerging between the UAE and Israel.

The memo, which was published on twitter, reads that he was summoned and that the government: “hands him a strong note of protest against threats in President Rouhani's speech on UAE sovereign decisions. Ministry considers the speech unacceptable & inflammatory w/ serious implications for security & stability in the region.”

Iran’s statements were viewed by the UAE as an “interference in internal affairs and an attack on sovereignty.”

The UAE is telling Iran that they are not free to act or even speak as they please.

The UAE is warning that there will be diplomatic repercussions for Iran’s aggressive behavior.

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UN Rejects Iran Embargo
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

With so much happening in the world, certain stories are bound to get lost and not receive the attention they deserve.

For example: The UN Security Council decided not to extend the embargo on Iran that is scheduled to end October 18th.

The proposal to extend was brought by the United States – and was soundly defeated.

There were 2 votes in favor, 2 opposed and 11 countries abstained. Russia and China, the two countries who opposed, did not even need to waste their veto power. The resolution had no chance of passing.

Five Gulf Arab countries and Israel were in favor of the resolution, but they had no vote. They know that once Iran is back up and running, they will wreak havoc in in the region and elsewhere. Iran will be free to sell weapons to whomever they please.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that we “know Iran will spread even greater chaos and destruction if the embargo expires, but the Security Council chose to ignore them.”

The UN Security Council decision is disastrous. Iran is reading the situation and rejoicing. They will conclude that world leadership does not with the United States or with the Gulf countries. They will understand that the momentum has shifted in their direction.

That conclusion by Iran is far more dangerous than the decision reached by the Security Council.

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Reactios to the Abraham Accords
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The framework for the Abraham Accords has been made public and the parties are sitting down to iron out the details. Responses and reaction is flooding in, most of it expected.

These responses leave no doubt as to where people and countries stand on the issues of Israel and real peace.

Many voices are saying the best part of the deal is Israel’s tabling of their plan to annex parts of the West Bank.

When Turkey came out blasting the deal saying that it was a stab in the back and that peoples of the region "will never forget and will never forgive this hypocritical behavior", many were taken aback.

Not me. It is exactly the response I expected from Erdogan.

The response is, never the less, insightful. It demonstrates how far Turkey has moved in the past few years. Once a friend of Israel, Turkey cannot now even see the benefit other states can receive by normalizing with Israel.

Not a surprise, but still a shame.

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Iran's Influence Dipping in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s influence in Lebanon has been severely damaged by the gargantuan blast that rocked Beirut.

Iranians are monitoring the protests and rallies very carefully. And Iran continues to publicly declare their solidarity with Lebanon.

Iran exerts tremendous influence in Lebanon through their proxy Hezbollah.

Iran sponsors Hezbollah and dumps huge amounts of money and community support to prop up Hezbollah and give their proteges a significant advantage in Lebanon.

Here is where Iran comes up short: right now, Iran does not have the money to help.

The Iranian economy is in shambles and COVID has been devastating for them.
Lebanon needs money to search for victims and to clear rubble and then to rebuild.

Iran knows that the Lebanese people are angry. They monitor Lebanon’s social media and see protestors holding effigies of Hezbollah’s Sheik Nasrallah with a noose around his neck.

Iran knows that if Hezbollah is weakened, their influence in Lebanon is lost.

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Hackers Try Hacking Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

An international hacker group named “Lazarus” was hired by a foreign government to infiltrate Israel’s defense computers.

The hack was stopped – and now we know just how devious these hackers are.

The hackers assumed the roles of HR recruiters for IT positions at huge international firms on LinkedIn. They approached Israelis working in extremely sensitive and secret departments in Israel’s defense and Israeli air divisions offering extremely attractive positions in the private sector.

Through their communication with the “recruits”, they dropped spyware onto the targets’ computers which allowed the hackers to monitor and follow and even infiltrate Israel’s secret defense systems.

Israel anticipated this type of hack and the targets were prepared for it. The hack was stopped but not before it was teased and led into dead ends. Israel kept the tease going long enough time for Israeli counter hacking teams to track and trace the hack back to Lazarus.

At this point the foreign body who sponsored Lazarus is unclear. Bu there are only a few possibilities. China, Russia, North Korea, or of course, Iran.

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Balloons & Kites Return as Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 11, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Balloons and kites have started over 30 fires in Israel over the past day.
How is that possible?

These incendiary flying weapons have retuned as an inexpensive and effective tool by terrorists from Hamas in Gaza.

Terrorists attach an incendiary device with a timer to a balloon or kite. They then launch the kite or balloon. When timer ends, the fire begins consuming the balloon and it falls into Israel. If times correctly and the device is still burning, it ignites the fields or crops or orchards where it has landed and burns them.

This low-tech weapon was very common in 2018. They are very difficult to defend against and cost less than a single dollar to build and launch.

A jet or helicopter gunship is useless against this low tech device. Radar does not work. Snipers can try to shoot them before they cross the border, but that is both very difficult and inefficient and a bullet will not bring down a kite.

Israel has found a solution, however. They used it in 2018 and they will use it again in 2020. A special team of volunteer drone operators fly their drones into the kites and balloons.

The IDF will bring back the drones.

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125 Iranian Bases in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 10, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has 125 army bases in Syria.

This information is documented by a Turkish research institute named Jusoor.
Their study shows that Iran has established itself as a significant presence all over Syria.

Iran is filling the vacuum left by Russia and the United States and are they are shaping Syrian defense systems.

Many of Iran’s bases in Syria were set up very close to Israel’s borders. The region of Deraa has 37 bases. There are 22 around Damascus and 15 around Aleppo.

From Israel’s perspective, most troubling of all are the 5 Iranian bases around Quientra.

Quinetra is a city in the Golan Heights, right on the border of Israel. If each of these bases has just 100 Iranian troops, that means they have 12,500 troops right next to Israel.

Like Israel, Turkey does not want an Iranian presence in Syria. In Syria, Iran is only interested in building and in extending their control.

Iran is creating a “land bridge” from Iran through Iraq and then into Syria and to the Mediterranean Sea. From there they have access to Europe.
And that is their goal.

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Lebanon Questions Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Social media in Lebanon is popping with condemnation of Hezbollah.

They are blaming Hezbollah for the ammonium nitrate explosions that killed hundreds and wounded thousands of their friends, family and fellow citizens in the port of Beirut.

The rumors that Hezbollah is behind the explosions have made their way to major media outlets. Middle East TV, (MTV) a Christian media outlet out of Lebanon, broadcast that Hezbollah officers, disguised as aid workers, have been found at the location. The reports are that the ammonium nitrate stockpiles belonged to Hezbollah and they simply neglected it.

Many Lebanese are saying that even their evil enemy Israel would never explode a bomb like that - how could Hezbollah permit this. Pictures of Hezbollah’s leader have been posted on social media with a noose around his neck.

Hezbollah is being blamed for putting Lebanon at risk. When Hezbollah attacks Israel, all of Lebanon suffers from Israel’s counter attacks.

This anger, this vitriol, this frustration and grief does not, however, mean that Hezbollah will be pushed out of power and influence. There are too many Shiites in Lebanon who would rather have corrupt Hezbollah leadership than Sunni or Christian leadership.

What it does mean is that those who are non-Hezbollah supporters are less and less afraid to speak out and are becoming more and more vocal.

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Polish Paper in Canada Spouts Hate
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Glos Polski is a weekly Polish paper in Toronto. It has published an article - for the second time, that blames COVID-19 on the Jews.

No surprise.

Glos Polski has also have published lies about Jews created ISIS. They write that Israel is the root of all evil and the devil itself. And if that is not enough for you, they preach that Vladimir Lenin, leader of Soviet Union, was Jewish. They write that Joseph Goebbels, the head Nazi propaganda, was really Jewish. They even argue that Turkish president Erdogan is Jewish.

B’nai Brith of Canada has filed a police complaint against Glos Polski for repeatedly spreading lies against Jews.

More and more anti-Semitism is permeating our world. People certainly have freedom of speech, but even that freedom has a limit.

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Beirut Explosion
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The explosions in Beirut at the port were cataclysmic. According to experts, this explosion was the closest in size to a nuclear explosion that has yet to occur.

The numbers of victims and injured will continue to climb.

The estimated cost of the damage is $15 billion, that too will climb. Given that Lebanon has only 6.8 million people and a GDP of $58 billion that number is bigger than huge.

Ammonium Nitrate has been used regularly for bombs. The IRA used it in London.
The Oklahoma City Bomber used it. It was used in Bali and used in India. Just about anywhere a huge explosion takes place, it can be traced to ammonium nitrate - often placed in a car or truck.

Stored properly ammonium nitrate is safe. But the more you have and the longer it sits, the more unstable it becomes.

2,750 tons is a recipe for an explosion. 2,750 tons is 5,500,000 pounds.

That’s what exploded in Beirut. It is dangerous by any estimate and was an explosion waiting to happen.
If this was an accident, it could – and should, have been avoided.

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Huge Wedding in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday the wedding of the grandson of the Belzer Rebbe took place in Jerusalem. The wedding was held in the Belz synagogue in Jerusalem which is enormous. The building can be seen from miles away. After it was built, the synagogue was jokingly referred to as the 3rd Temple by many of those who live in Jerusalem.

Thousands of people were invited to participate in the wedding. Thousands accepted the invitation and they were all in close contact.

Police officials met with Belzer leadership and explained how unsafe and unwise such a gathering would be. But the wedding went on as planned. The new head of Israel’s National COVID Task Force called the wedding a huge potential center for contamination. He was so upset he even went so far as to say that events like this play “Russian Roulette” with people’s lives.

Police fined the organizers 5000 NIS that is about $1400 for violating COVID laws and having such a large gathering.

We pray that no one gets infected. But mathematics may prove the opposite.

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Israel Sends Up Hi Tech Spy Sat
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday Israel launched the Ofek 16 Spy Satellite.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a Cabinet meeting: “The success of the Ofek 16 satellite very much increases our ability to act against Israel’s enemies, near and far alike. It greatly expands our ability to act on land, at sea, in the air, and also in space.”

The prime minister even hinted that Israel was responsible for the recent explosions and fires in Iran.

Israel has been using satellites for over 20 years. They are an enormously important part of their intelligence gathering.

Every new satellite that is launched has better technology than the ones that were launched before. Not just a little better - exponentially higher tech, higher speed transmission, better resolution with pictures and video that are immediately sent.

From high up in space, these satellites can even read the license plate on a car parked in a dark alley.

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India Cutting Off Iran's Tea & Rice
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Indian companies are about to stop exporting tea and basmati rice to Iran.

Their complaint is that it is very difficult to get payment from Iran.

The CEO of a rice company in India said “The payment is very slow and it is coming in small batches. It is becoming impossible to do trade with Iran. The Indian government should work out a deal with Tehran so that exports can be carried out smoothly.”

Iran loves basmati rice and Indian tea and they are very large importers of both.

But when a client cannot send you money, the supplier shuts down the supply.
Once again, sanctions are hurting Iran.

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PA Teetering
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority looks to be teetering. Actually, even on the verge of imploding.

The chaos that will emerge if or when this happens is not good news for anyone in the region – not just for Palestinians and for Israel.

If the PA falls the only power poised to fill the void is Hamas.

That is a 100% inevitability. And if Hamas takes charge in the West Bank, they will turn the area into an even bigger and failed mess than Gaza. they will make it into an even bigger failure than Gaza. If you think the West Bank is dysfunctional now, imagine if Hamas was in charge.

There are several indicators of the instability in the PA. It is apparent that PA President Abbas is no longer leading and directing. COVID plus economic difficulties plus Israel’s annexation threats are huge obstacles that Abbas is not properly embracing.

Rather than inspiring the masses, Abbas has activated his traditional tropes whereby he automatically turns Israel into an enemy and the root of all problems.
He has called out to the world to condemn Israel and called for aid and assistance.

This old strategy is no longer working.

In order for Abbas to build a stable society and transition and transfer power to a successor, whoever that may be, he needs to work together with Israel, especially in terms of security and safety.

Israel has a vested interest in keeping Abbas in power. Israel is working to maintain the PA president’s safety and to protect him from Hamas. Abbas, however, is not working with Israel.

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Eid al Adha Has Changed
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 31, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Eid al Adha is one of two most important holidays in Islam. The other is Eid al Fitr, But Eid al Adha takes precedence, it is actually the more important of the two.

Eid al Adha translates from Arabic as the Festival of the Sacrifice, it is found in the Koran in section 30, or Sura 30, lines 100 to112. It is the parallel story of the Binding of Isaac from Genesis 22. This holiday is also known as Eid al Qurban. Qurban is a synonym for sacrifice.

In the Koranic version of the story, Allah challenges Ibrahim’s faith and commands him to take Ishmael, his son, and offer him as a sacrifice. In the end, Allah intervenes and stops the sacrifice. and Ibrahim’s faith has been proven. The Koran’s rendition is a near exact replica of the story of Abraham and Isaac in the Bible.

At the end of the Koranic story, a sheep is replaced for Ishmael. In the Bible, a ram takes the place of Isaac.

Eid al Adha is as much a feast as it is a holiday. The feast is traditionally a four day celebration of food and prayers with family. An entire sheep is slaughtered and prepared. Two thirds of the sheep is eaten by the family, the third share is gifted to the poor.

But we are not living in normal times. And many Islamic traditions, like almost all other traditions and behaviors, have had to shift and morph to accommodate COVID-19. This year, because of COVID coupled with a crippling financial crisis, the Islamic population on the West Bank has scaled down their celebrations.

The sale of animals has dropped more than 50% according to some slaughterhouses and animal sellers. Some families are abandoning the traditional sheep and instead, pooling their funds and buying a larger animal, such as a cow. The celebration and the tradition has been changed.

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Iran & Turkey Making Friends
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


In a formal agreement, Turkey and Iran have decided to let us know that they have decided share information.

The official spokespeople of Iran and Turkey had a video conference and agreed to share this news and other materials.

These two countries, which share a border, are taking serious steps to coordinate.
They want to set up a block against the West, especially against the United States and Israel.

Iran has been expanding their foreign policy efforts. They are trying to pry people away from the West. Turkey is perfectly poised as a partner. Over the last two years Turkey has been moving further and further away from the West and the US and Israel.

Iran realizes this and is extending a hand in friendship to Turkey.

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Another Set of Mysterious Explosions
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Another mysterious explosion took place in Iran.

This time six fuel trucks exploded while in a parking lot in Dolat Abad. Simultaneously!

The trucks were in the industrial area of Kermanshah. They were filled with fuel. They burned for a long time.

The deputy head of the Kermanshah Fire Department said that while a few people were injured, nobody died in the explosions. He said that the explosions are under investigation.

The questions are obvious. How are all these mysterious explosions happening? Who is responsible for these fires? What is the link between all the explosions that have plagued Iran’s sensitive and secure areas?

One theory is Israel. Or maybe the United States. Or local saboteurs. Or maybe, a combination of all three.

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Iran's Model US Carrier
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran dragged out a life size model of a US aircraft carrier. And then they had a tugboat bring it into the Straits of Hormuz.

The model aircraft carrier is in the fashion of a Nimitz Class carrier.

The USS Abraham Lincoln is in the region and another US carrier is close by. The real Nimitz just made an appearance in the region. It entered Middle Eastern waters from the Indian Ocean and will probably replace the USS Dwight D Eisenhauer.

Why would Iran drag out a life size model of an US carrier?
That’s easy. They are going to use it for target practice.

The Iranians are going to sink the model ship using their weapons. They will practice attacking the ship. I watched small rubber boats zipping around the massive ship, jumping in and out if its wake as it was being tugged.

It looks like a game – but this is for real. This is serious stuff.

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US Joint Chief Visits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

US Chair of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, arrived in Israel on Friday morning. The four star general flew directly into an Israeli air-force base.
Milley met with Aviv Kochavi, his Israeli counterpart. He also met with Yossi Cohen, head of the Mossad Yossi Cohen. Defense Minister Benny Gantz came to the base and he, too, met with the American general.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Milley through a video conference, Kochavi was a part of the conversation.

Israel was the only destination for the US General.

So, what did they talk about? There is only one answer. Iran. They also spoke about Syria and Hezbollah – and their involvement with Iran.

All those suspicious fires and explosions in Iran, they were certainly on the agenda.

The US Chair of the Joint Chief of staff does not hop on a plane and make trips for no reason. This was a whirlwind visit. Milley came to Israel to deliver a message and to get information that could not be delivered any other wat. Not through the embassy or over the internet or on the secure phone.

Nothing is more secure than a face-to-face meeting.

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US Congress Supports Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Both Houses of Congress overwhelmingly approved a $3.8 billion aid package for Israel.

It is called the National Defense Authorization Act. It passed the House by a vote of 295 to125, that is nearly 3 to 1 in favor. It passed the Senate by a vote of 86 to14, which is nearly 8.5 to 1.5 in favor.

These are important numbers. They reflect a more true sense of support for Israel than the Congressional rumblings we hear about. Some very loud members of Congress shout that aid to Israel should be in question and that it should be a carrot or a stick, forcing Israel’s policies on numerous issues especially those regarding Palestinians and including annexation.

According to these votes, those voices are in the minority.

Senator Bernie Sanders as well as “the Squad” have been very vocal and led many to believe that Israel’s support in Congress was waning. But members of Congress have their finger on the pulse of their constituencies. On the one hand, they educate their constituencies and vote their conscience. On the other hand, however, they would not take a stand that would jeopardize and threaten their electability.

This is a very good sign. Especially good because two of the four members of “the Squad”, Talib and Omar, face serious primary election challenges in early August.

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Iran & Iraq Very Friendly
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Relations between Iran and Iraq are in high gear.
Over the weekend Iran’s foreign minister, Muhammed Javad Zarif, visited Iraq.

And a few days later Iraq’s foreign minister, Mustafa al Kadimi, visited Iran.
Iranian president Rouhani described these visits as a “turning point” in their relations - not just between the two neighbors but for the region, as well. He said that Iran stands ready to protect its neighbor.

After the Iraqi foreign minister met with the Iranian premier, Iranian President
Rouhani said: “We are certain that the visit will be a turning point in relations between the two countries … We still remain ready to stand by the Iraqi nation and apply efforts for stability and security in Iraq and the region.”

Kadimi then responded that: “Iraq will not allow the posing of any threat from its soil against Iran.” He continued and said that Iraq is committed to “balance and avoiding any alignment.”

There had been tremendous tension between Iran and Iraq. It now appears that they are warming and uniting.

Meanwhile, the United States has a serious and significant presence in Iraq. All this is happening right under their nose.

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Iran Claims Victim of Cyber
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

In a turn of events which is so typical of Iranian PR they are now asserting that the are the victims of a cyber assault from the US.

Abbas Mousavi the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran is being attacked thousands of times by cyber-attacks. He said that the hackers are from the US.

Mousavi said that “Iran is maintaining its right to respond in a similar at a time of its choosing.”

Remember Iran was the culprit in the multiple cyber attacks against Israel’s water infrastructure.

Israel has most probably countered and attacked Iran.

Mousavi, however, says that all the fires and all the explosions are absolutely not the result of cyber-attacks.

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Twitter Says:Star Of David Hate Image
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Twitter has shuttered accounts of people who have a Star of David as part of their profile picture.

Twitter informed account holders that their the Star of David was “hateful imagery.”
Several people reported that they received this message.
It reads: “We have determined that this account violated the Twitter Rules. Specifically for: violating our rules against posting hateful imagery. You may not use hateful images or symbols in your profile image or profile header. As a result, we have looked your account.”

This move by twitter is nothing short of crazy – and it is not the first time it has happened. At one point YouTube considered “Zionism” and “Zionist” to be hate words.

I just did a twitter search of the word swastika.

There were thousands of pictures of anti-Semitic swastikas. In fact, the first image was a person wearing a red COVID facemask with a swastika.

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Arabs Unite Against Annex
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Sameh Shoukry, the foreign minister of Egypt, took a quick helicopter ride to Ramallah to have a face to face conversation with PA President Abbas. He arrived after a short visit to Jordan and flew from Amman, Jordan to Ramallah, a 20 minute helicopter flight away.

The obvious agenda was to discuss a response to Israel’s plans to annex part of the West Bank.

Egypt brainstormed - first with Amman and then with Ramallah, on how to activate international influence against Israel if they pursue annexation.

The Arab world is deeply concerned about Israel’s annexation plans. They are planning a response.

All this Arab bluster may be a total waste of time, Israel’s plan has not yet been articulated – so far, it’s all speculation.

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Shortage of Syringes
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The race is on for a vaccine for COVID-19. Whenever that vaccine is discovered, hopefully soon, countries will need to give the vaccine to their citizens.

There are three ways to give a vaccine. Through the nose, through the mouth, or through an injection.

Odds are that an injection will be the most common method.

To give an injection, you need a syringe. The United States has already purchased 50 million syringes at a cost of $70 million. Canada and the United Kingdom have also already purchased their syringes.

Israel has not yet made plans.

That could prove to be very problematic. “The Health Ministry has been warned by private bodies that there is a need to buy syringes,” a source in the Health Ministry was quoted as saying. “Due to the global race to a vaccine, there is real doubt regarding the ability to produce and supply syringes on time if no purchase is done ahead of time.”

This is worrisome. The vaccine will come in vials. There are usually 10 to 20 doses per vial. But a vaccine is useless without a syringe.

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Iran Will Respond
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 19, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s character has been defined over centuries.

Iran responds to attacks, but they respond according to their own timetable.
Iran uses their “seconds” to do the actual attacks.

The Washington Post’s David Ignatius interviewed US General Kenneth McKenzie about the tensions between Iran and Israel.

Ignatius asked McKenzie if he thought Iran would respond to the recent devastating attacks that have been attributed to Israel.

McKenzie’s response was immediate and absolute. He said: "My experience with Iran tells me they will respond.”

So, what does that mean?

It means that this is the beginning of a tit for tat between Israel and Iran. It means that tensions will escalate, that targets will get bigger and bigger.

It means that the situation may get out of control.

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They Want to Impeach Rouhani
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Rouhani is fighting for his political life.

There is a move in Iran to impeach Rouhani. The move asserts that Rouhani failed in protecting Iran from COVID-19.

Obviously, the move comes from the right.

Rouhani has been working hard at trying to appease right-wing parliamentarians, calling for unity and brotherhood. His foreign minister, Zarif, was shouted down in parliament last week and Rouhani defended him.

Rouhani represents compromise with the West. It is Rouhani who is responsible for the nuke deal.

Internally, Iran is dealing with pulls and pushes. The right has a very strong voice in politics. The liberals are the youth of Iran.

Rouhani was open to liberal ideas, but he promised much more than what he delivered.

The move to impeach cites COVID, but in reality, the issue the right has with Rouhani is that he was too liberal - on everything.

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Fires in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Western media is finally paying attention to the explosions in Iran.

Yesterday, outlet after outlet covered mysterious fires in the Southern port city of Bushehr where seven ships were set aflame.

There were no reports of injuries. But the fires shut the port down.

Bushehr is significant for so many reasons. Those who set the fires are sending a message way beyond the ships burning in the southern port.

Bushehr is the where the Iranian navy is headquartered.

Bushehr is a location of one of the secret Iranian nuclear sites.

Whoever hit the Bushehr port was sending a strong message: Pay attention Iran, we can even hit your navy and your nuclear site. Iran, beware.

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They Unite Against the US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Enemies of the United States are banding together.
The two biggest enemies of the US are making a pact.

Which two? Iran and China.

During an Iranian parliament session last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that Iran is “with confidence and conviction,” in negotiations with China over a 25-year strategic partnership that could involve about $400 billion in Chinese investment through various sectors of the Iranian economy.

The 18 page document outlining the plan was leaked. The NYT covered the leaked document. The paper reported that many of the proposals are rehashes of the old ideas that have been rejected in the past.

The exact terms of the union seem to still be in flux, but enemies of the United States are joining together on issues of economic investment - and that bond will create a blockade to protect against US economic attacks.

That’s the bottom line, and that’s what counts.

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Israel Special Force
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli Air Force announced that all their special forces will now be under one command. This will be a totally new squad composed of five distinct groups working together to assist the air force.

Unit 669, one of the five groups, is an elite search and rescue team. Shaldag is the commando unit. There will be a Frontal Landing Unit whose job it is to build ad hoc landing strips behind enemy lines. There is, of course, a dedicated intelligence unit. And finally, a special forces school.

This is a sign of Israel’s future.

The combined skills and talents of some of Israel’s best youth will come together to protect and ensure Israel’s future. The commander of the air force, only identified as Colonel Ayin, said that this elite group “is standing on the shoulders of giants who did bold things.” Now, he said, it is our turn.

He is correct.

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PA & COVID-19
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has begun to take the COVID -19 issue seriously. Why? because they are getting seriously hit.

It was just a question of time. That is the way this virus progresses. We do not have numbers from the PA, but it must be very bad.

On Sunday night, in light of the recent rise in corona virus cases, the PA announced curfews and new travel restrictions.

Travel between all districts has been prohibited for the next two weeks. Nighttime curfew between 8pm and 6am has been implemented. Hebron, Ramallah, Nablus and Bethlehem are under a four-day lockdown. All public gatherings are banned.

These restrictions will help stop the spread from place to place - but not within the districts and towns. Unfortunately, the virus will have to run its course inside these areas.

The only thing people can do in the PA, just like everywhere else world over, is keep their hands clean and away from their faces and keep safe social distance.

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Very Small Sat Images Can Be Sold
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

During the last week of June a small and not very well known office in the US federal bureaucracy changed one of their policies.

The U.S. Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs Office decided that they will permit smaller images of Israel and the Palestinian Authority areas to be sold.
Up until now, images could not portray something less than 2 meters or 6.5 feet.

The new regulation allows for images to be .4 meters or 19 inches.
The change went into place on June 25th.

The original regulation had been in place since 1997and is known as the Kyl-Bingaman Amendment.

Israel has always argued that terrorists and other enemies can use google maps to plan and improve rocket targeting. That they can use the pictures to monitor sensitive sites and plot strategies to attack military and civilian locations.

The U.S. Commercial Remote office argued that there are already foreign companies that provide the material, so it is useless for the United States to prohibit it.

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Register the Cat to Vote
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 11, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I just read an amusing AP release about voter registration in Georgia.

Someone received a voter registration form for his cat, Cody Tims. What makes this even more ludicrous is that the cat died – 12 years ago.

The Georgia Secretary of State said that the form did not come from the official office of voter registration. However, interest groups bought lists and are trying to get people out to vote.

The essential point here is that there is and there will be tremendous voter fraud in this coming election. Especially because of Covid-19 and the fact that new methods of voting will be used to try to accommodate for social distancing.

The basic rule in voting is that the first time a system is used it is fraught with problems. It’s the case no matter how many times you test and try the new system. It’s the case even when we are not faced with the challenges of a pandemic.

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Canadian PM Candidate Says Will Move Embassy to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Erin O’Toole is a Canadian MP running for Prime Minister.
His chances are looking good.

O’Toole is a conservative and a proud supporter of Israel. And if he wins, O’Toole has promised to move the Canadian embassy to Jerusalem.

On his Facebook page O’Toole writes: "I'm a proud Conservative and firmly believe in a principled approach to foreign policy - one that builds on our values and interests as a country,"
"This approach has made me a resolute and strong friend to Israel."

Erin O’Toole was a member of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s administration. He recalled that back then, Canada was known to be a staunch supporter of the Jewish state and "trustworthy friend" to Israel.

This is a very good sign - even if it ends up a close election and this friend of Israel loses. It means that, once again, Israel and support of Israel is an important political value in Canada.

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Real COVID Numbers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a surge of COVID-19. The numbers are daunting. 50,000 in San Antonio in a single day.

The numbers of positives are up because the percentage of those testing is up. It does not matter how many people are testing positive – that number is not essential.

There are three important numbers:
#1: fatalities
#2: ventilated
#3: hospitalized.

And these numbers are significantly down.

They are certainly down in comparison to the numbers during March and April.
The argument that more testing creates more positives is correct.

It is also important to realize that younger people are testing because employers are requiring testing for employees. These younger people who are testing positive would never, until now, have been tested. Many are asymptomatic and would never have even known that they were carriers and positive.

However, once they do test positive, they must quarantine. And they must stay away from high risk populations.

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Israel is Heating Up
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Things are heating up in Israel on numerous fronts.

Hamas: Gazans shot three rockets into Israel yesterday. Israel shot back at Gaza, hitting Hamas sites.

Hezbollah: Israel targeted a convoy of weapons, in Syria, on its way to Hezbollah.
Corona: The virus has reached its peak and the numbers of ill and dead are receding. But frustrations are high. Group gatherings are limited. Family celebrations are severely restricted. Bars and restaurants are operating with severe limit. Neighborhoods in several cities have been sealed off. There are still no tourists permitted into Israel.

This has become Israel’s new normal.

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Explosions in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been experiencing a series of explosions.

Over the past few weeks I have watched numerous electrical stations explode, a hospital go dark and now - a fire and explosion at Natanz, the secret Iranian nuke site just north of Teheran, Iran’s capital.

All fingers are pointing at Israel for engineering a computer hack that is causing these mishaps. It makes sense.

But recently Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that all the mysterious events in Iran are “not necessarily” the work of Israel. Iranians are also now looking at local sabotage as an option.

It may all be a smoke screen.

Israel is almost certainly responsible for the breakdown of the Iranian nuclear facility, an attack that set Iran’s nuclear program back at least a year.

Israel has said that they will never let Iran attain a nuke.

The downside of these counter attacks, assuming they were perpetrated by Israel, is that Iran will discover Israel’s secret cyber techniques.

Israel can use an attack method one time only.

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Palestinian Protests Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday was a “Day of Rage” in America.

In several cities across America, people came out to protest Israel’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

All total several thousand people participated. The numbers were small.

Interestingly, the Palestinian Authority attempted to organize rallies in Ramallah and Jericho and those rallies fell flat. The PA gave people off from work and asked them to attend, but only a trickle came to the Ramallah protest while a few more were bussed to Jericho.

In the rally in Brooklyn, NY one female speaker said: “We don’t wanna go just back to our homes in Gaza and the West Bank. We want all of it...we don’t want your two states.”

Another speaker said: “we want it all.”
Another called for an “intifada”.
Of course, they also shouted the canard that “Israel kills children.”

These are powerful words. They are words that reject the idea of co-existence and reject the foundation of the peace process which has always been the “2 state solution.”

There is a movement in Congress, created by AOC, to defund all US support for Israel because of the plan and discussions about annexation.

Bernie Sanders is one of the signatures on the AOC letter.

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Jew Hatred Has No Bounds
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Jew haters will never let facts get in the way of their hatred of Jews.
The canard that Israel taught American police the choke hold that killed George Floyd is just another cruel example. Another lie.

However, and this will probably shock you, in 1983 the US Supreme Court ruled that city police may use the choke hold.

The court case began as the result of the 1976 arrest of Adolph Lyons, arrested for a broken taillight. Lyons, who did not resist arrest, was put in a choke hold. He survived the ordeal and sued the City of Los Angeles.

The case made it all the way to the US Supreme Court and the ruling came out against him by a vote of 5-4. Thurgood Marshall, the first black Supreme Court justice, wrote the minority opinion which identified the problem.


He wrote that "for many years, it has been the official policy of the city to permit police officers to employ chokeholds in a variety of situations where they face no threat of violence." Justice Marshall wrote that from 1975 to 1980, the Los Angeles Police Department used chokeholds 975 times. Sixteen of those incidents ended in death, and 12 of the dead were Black.”

The essential point is that Marshall was identifying the problem in 1983. He explained that choke holds were in place at least since 1970. What is critical here is that Israel had nothing to do with it. That the Supreme Court - despite Marshall’s powerful and prophetic minority opinion – still upheld police choking.

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Russia Iran & Turkey Summit on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will join together for a video conference on Wednesday.

The topic is Syria. They are all invested in Syria. They all have troops in Syria.
They all want parts of Syria.
And they all want Bashar Assad to maintain power.

This is the second time this group of three is meeting. They met to discuss the same topic in 2018.

These leaders have important matters to discuss. They must create rules in Syria so that they do not cross paths. They need to make certain that they are not in conflict with each other on the ground and in the air.

And they will be assessing how to deal with attacks from Israel, attacks which have been coming more and more regularly in Syria. The Israeli attacks are designed to prevent Iranian troop and weapons build up.

This summit has very large implications for the region. It is very important for the stability and security of the region that Russia put the brakes on Iranian and Turkish expansion in Syria.

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Iran in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media has reported that the head of the Iranian al Quds Force, General Esmail Qaani, has been visiting Syria.

Tasnim, an official outlet of the Iranian regime, reported that Qaani accused the United States and Israel of supporting ISIS and helping them.

He said: "Given that the existence of this group (Islamic State) is managed by the United States and the Zionist regime (Israel), we can be sure that the conspiracies of these two criminal regimes have not ended.”

What was an Iranian general doing in Syria - and why was he speaking about ISIS?
Iran is still deeply invested in Syria. Iran has advisers in Syria as well as weapons.

By speaking about ISIS and by pushing the idea of a conspiracy between the United States, Israel and ISIS, Iran - through Qaani - is trying to lump together ISIS and the US and Israel. They are trying to broaden their own ally base by creating common enemies. By so doing they are pulling at the heart strings of their supporters.

Iran is trying to re-shape the political landscape in the region.

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Israel and Arab Relations
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Yemen recently. Yemen and Israel are fast becoming good friends – but they are doing their best at keeping that friendship a secret.

Many Arab countries, Yemen among them, have been working behind closed doors with Israel. Among those countries are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Dubai and Oman.

On the flip side, there are other countries in the region where their warm relations with Israel have cooled. Turkey is the best example. Then again, Turkey’s chilled relationship with Israel is parallel to their chilled relationship with the United States. So, no surprise there.

The good news is that this thawing with Yemen and the others looks like it will continue for a long time - even if Israel advances with their plans to annex part of the West Bank, especially the Jordan Valley.

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Abbas Rejects Treaties But Wants Peace
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have officially rejected and discontinued all treaties with Israel.

The decision was made because Israel is discussing annexing parts of the West Bank – most critically the Jordan Valley. Israel has not yet done it – they are only discussing it. Maybe this is a test balloon.

In discussing the annexation issue with the Arab Parliament of the Arab League, a group that discusses issues and presents information within the Arab League, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas put forth that rejecting treaties with Israel is not a refusal of peace.

Of course - it is!

Peace is a treaty. The agreement, should it ever come to fruition, will be called a peace treaty.

One cannot even begin negotiating terms if you have decided not to talk. And that is the status today. The Palestinian Authority has nixed any and all conversation with Israel ever since the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem.

In his speech to the Arab League Abbas said that he rejects “every plan of the American and Israeli governments.”

And so I ask - with whom does he want to make peace?

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Interview w Chief Rabbi of Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 23, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

I read with great interest an interview with Iranian Chief Rabbi Yehuda Garami.

The interview was published in Al Monitor, an Arab website founded in 2012.
In his interview the rabbi gives spectacular insight into Iran and the Jewish community. Obviously, Iran’s Jews do not publicly support Israel.

The community appears to be stable in numbers and able to provide for their own needs and education.

Rabbi Garami says:
“I estimate that there are between 20,000 and 25,000 Jews in the country. Most of them live in Tehran, Shiraz, Esfahan and Karmanshah, though there are other, small communities too”.

He went on to discuss the state of the community, saying, “We have total freedom of religion. All the synagogues are open, and Torah classes take place there. We have all sorts of educational institutions too, including elementary and middle schools.”

About security and safety he says:
“Unlike in Europe, for example, we do not have guards outside our synagogues and schools, and our personal safety is excellent. Of course, we sometimes encounter people who are anti-Semitic, but that happens everywhere. Most of the population respects us and lives in peace with us. What is important is that in Iran there is no such concept as organized attacks on Jews.”

Is the interview 100% accurate – probably not. But it does show an important side of Iran and Iranian Jewish life.

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US Warns Israel about China
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 22, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Just as the United States puts more and more pressure on China in a trade war, Israel and China are become closer and closer.

The Israel/China nexus worries Washington.

Israel sees their relationship with China as a great, expansive, economic opportunity. China wants to invest in Israel. The United states is not elated.

The US is warning Israel. They are saying: do not let China in.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Israel recently on a whirlwind trip. He made time for a TV interview and took the opportunity to speak bluntly. He said:

“We don’t want the Chinese Communist Party to have access to Israeli infrastructure, Israeli communication networks … This is the kind of things that endanger the Israeli people and the ability of the U.S. to cooperate with Israel.”

That was a direct threat to Israel. And it is not the first time that the United States has forced Israel to drop a big deal.

Israel has been warned.

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Iran's New Cruise Missile
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 19, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that they have test fired a new type of Cruise Missile, a missile that is resistant to electronic hacking.

Official Iranian media covered the test and reported that the missile hit its targets in the Gulf of Oman and in the Indian Ocean at a distance of 280 kilometers (170 miles). According to the report two different types of missiles were tested.

If all this is true and Iran has a hack resistance cruise missile, they are a major step ahead of the West.

A Cruise Missile concept is a “smart bomb” with an adjustable homing device. The best defense against a Cruise is to jam the electronics or to fry the electronics.

It is easier to fry than to jam. Jamming requires the defense system to first find the transmission frequency. Frying destroys all electronics in the area that is targeted.

I am doubtful. I think this report is more intimidation than fact. It is highly doubtful that Iran has developed such highly advanced and protective technology.

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Annexation
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 18, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

According to press reports Jordanian Prime Minister Ayman Safadi embarked on an emergency helicopter flight to Ramallah to speak with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

The obvious topic under discussion was Israel’s plan to annex the West Bank.
It is not known exactly what the conclusions of their conversation were. But this much we know: King Abdullah of Jordan has said that annexation could mean the end of the Jordanian peace treaty with Israel.

That might be an exaggeration. But there is no doubt that there will be a cooling off of relations between Jordan and Israel if annexation takes place.
Other countries have articulated a similar theme.

What is clear is that the Israeli cabinet is set to debate the issue on July 1.

US elections will be held in November. Despite President’s Trump’s support for annexation, it could be a small, albeit critical, issue that might sway voters away from the incumbent. So the United States is asking Netanyahu to slow down annexation plans and wait until after November.

And that’s probably what will happen.

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Twitter Should Ban the Ayatollah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 17, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Twitter has a policy about abuse and language. The policy states that Twitter is not a place to articulate “violence against a group of people” or for “glorifying violent acts”.

The policy also states that “There is no place on Twitter for terrorist organizations... and individuals who affiliate with and promote their illicit activities.” One may not be “providing or distributing services (e.g., financial, media/propaganda) to further a terrorist organization’s... stated goals.”

That is their policy, at least on paper. In actuality – I’m not so sure.

Iran’s Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been violating this policy since he began tweeting in 2011. In just the last few days this is what he has written about Israel.

“We will support and assist any nation or any group anywhere who opposes and fights the Zionist regime.”

“Iran realized Palestinian fighters’ only problem was lack of access to weapons.”
“The West Bank must be armed, just as Gaza.”
“The only remedy until the removal of the Zionist regime is firm, armed resistance.”

And, Israel “will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed.”

The Grand Ayatollah needs to be censured by Twitter and removed.

If this is their policy, it should be applied. To everyone. All the time.

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Iran is Close to A Bomb
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s new Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, received a briefing on Iranian nuclear development.

According to sources that were published in the Hebrew press the report was ominous.

Israel’s defense intelligence predicts that Iran will have all the components necessary for a sophisticated nuke within the next six months. And then they will be on their way to assembling a bomb. Those same officials suggest that it will take them less than two years.

The job of the Defense Minister is to protect Israel and to advise the Prime Minister on these issues. Gantz was the IDF Chief of Staff. He knows there are risks and threats. But timetables are often simply guesses.

Israel cannot afford to wait and see if the predictions they were given are correct.
They need to stop Iran.

Israel has options – but their bottom line is that Iran cannot get an operational nuke.

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Billionaire Expelled from Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

In Israel even billionaires must quarantine. If not, even they will be caught and immediately deported

That is what happened to Brandon Korff, the thirty-something billionaire son of Shari Redstone, grandson of Sumner Redstone of CBSVIACOM fame.

Brandon was allowed into Israel on an appeal. No non-Israelis are permitted entry and everyone – and that means everyone, must isolate for 14 days.

Brandon’s appeal asked for an exception to visit his younger brother who is a lone soldier in the IDF. He was granted the waiver and arrived on Friday. Almost immediately after arrival, went to visit his girlfriend. Her name is Yael Shelbia
Cohen, a 19 year old Israeli actress/model who is also serving in the IDF.
Brandon was told to pack his belongings and leave Israel post haste.

This is a terrible public relations nightmare for the Redstone family and for his father, Rabbi Ira Korff, a very prestigious rabbi and Hassidic leader.

The Redstones like to fly under the radar. This “fashla” or snafu, projected them into the limelight. The optics were not good.

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Arab Diplomat's OPED in Hebrew Paper
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It was a unique moment in Israeli journalism.

The front page of the Hebrew daily Yediot Ahronot had an opinion piece, in Hebrew, written by Yousef al Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States. The oped column was about Israel’s decision to annex the West Bank.

It seems that Israeli American billionaire Haim Saban, inventor of Transformers, advised the UAE ambassador and even brought in his own media advisor.
Al Otaiba wrote that annexation would put in question the long strides that have been made between Gulf states and Israel.

As part of his conclusion the ambassador wrote: “Direct links. Expanded markets. Growing acceptance. That is what normal could be… Normal is not annexation.”

The UAE ambassador to the United States took his message directly to the Israeli reader.

Israelis are very excited about growing regional acceptance and expanding markets, so writing in Yediot in Hebrew, was an extremely wise political move. It demonstrated recognition of Israel and respect for Israeli readers.

In his own way, via this oped, Saban and his advisers may have achieved more than any political party or politician in bringing their opinion to the attention of the Israeli public.

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Syrian Baby Comes to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

A ten-day old Syrian baby was brought to Israel for emergency heart surgery.

Yes, a Syrian child brought to Israel for medical help.

The Syrian family is now living in Cyrpus as refugees.

Medical teams in Cyprus, after consultation with medical center professionals at Sheba Medical Center Tel Hashomer, decided that the only way to save the child was to bring him to Israel for emergency surgery.

The Israeli ambassador to Cyprus cleared a quick path to get the child onto a special medical evac plane and to the hospital – a patient in need of care.

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Guess Who's Flying To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 11, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Since the beginning of COVID-19 Israel has shut down its air space and airport to almost every airline.

Only Israelis are permitted entry into Israel. And after arrival, every Israeli must
quarantine for 14 days. For months, no foreigners have been permitted entry into Israel.

From the start of Coronavirus, only two airlines continued to fly to Israel on a daily basis. They are United Airlines, flying from Newark, New Jersey and Ethiopian Air flying from Addas Adaba.

More airlines, carrying Israeli passengers only, have just begun running flights to Israel.

United from Newark is easy to understand - but Ethiopian Air?
Ethiopia is the centerpiece of Israeli business in Africa. From Ethiopian an Israeli CEO can hop anywhere else in Africa.

Equally important, but not well touted, is that the Mossad is extremely active in Africa and Ethiopia is their point of entry. Now it all makes sense.

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PA Rejects 2nd Plane of UAE AID
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 10, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

For the second time in two weeks the United Arab Emirates has sent a direct flight to Israel.

Ethiad Air sent a plane carrying 14 tons of medical supplies intended to help the Palestinian Authority fight Coronavirus.

But once again, the PA refused to accept the aid from the flight.

No one can say where the first set of medical materials went. The PA went as far as to say that they have no idea about the second flight.

The reason the PA rejected the aid is because the UAE flight flew into Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. Both flights were official Ethiad Air flights, but rather than carrying passengers, these flights carried cargo.

The PA cannot admit that the UAE is flying into Israel and that is de facto recognition of the Jewish State.

Both planes were unmarked so as not to raise suspicion.

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Saudi to Halt Haj
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has been hit hard by COVID-19. Over 100,000 sick Saudis are infected.

The Saudis are considering seriously limiting the numbers of people allowed to come on this year’s Haj - the once in a lifetime pilgrimage to Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia.

One of the pillars of Islam is participation in the Haj. And each year 2.5 million Muslims visit Saudi Arabia for the Haj. Those Muslim visitors on their pilgrimage yield $12 billion of yearly revenue for Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis have already halted the number of people participating in the Umrah, the pilgrimage to Mecca. All because of Covie-19.

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Iran is a Split Nation
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is a split nation.

We cannot know what the true percentages are, but we know that there are two different and dramatically divergent groups in Iran.

One is traditional. This group embraces Iranian leadership and their conservative views. For the most part, they are an older group.

The other group wants modernization and openness. More than anything, this group wants cultural openness. They come out to protest almost every day, asking for more freedoms. They are young men and women. They are optimistic and they dream of a great future. They use computer software to end around the oppressive restrictions of their conservative leadership. They are hopeful. And they are pro-West.

They are at war with each other. At stake is the their hope for the future of Iran.

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Israel Air Strikes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

AFP (Agence France Presse) reported that airstrikes killed twelve Iraqi and Afghani soldiers. The strike took place in the rural area of Deir Ezzor in eastern Iraq, close to the border with Syria.

Conventional wisdom says that Israel was behind the strikes, there were eight of them, that took place just before midnight.

According to the sources quoted by AFP new reinforcements had arrived in the area. That’s obvious from the presence of Afghani soldiers so far from home. They were there moving materials to the large Iranian Syrian bases just over the border. Equally obvious is that the Iraqis that were involved are Shiite allies of Iran and Syria.

In addition to the deaths, the strikes destroyed equipment and ammunition.

The build up of weapons, advisers and soldiers is worrisome. Israel needs to push them back and prevent a critical mass of equipment and professional soldiers from entering the area. Their presence tips the scale.

If the critical mass builds up, Israel can expect Iranian strikes from Lebanon and from Syria. They will use local and imported soldiers to do their bidding.

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Support Diaspora
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

“We have not done enough for the Jewish communities outside of Israel.”

This is the most important quote to come from an interview Benny Ganz gave to the Israeli daily newspaper Makor Rishon.

Ganz is Israel’s new Defense Minister and alternate Prime Minister. He is scheduled to assume the prime ministry in 18 months.

He is correct.

The relationship between Israel and the Diaspora is worse today than it has ever been.

Jews around the world should be connected to Israel The real challenge is in determining how Israel can present itself in a more approachable manner to those Jews, enticing them to connect to the Jewish State.

If Ganz can do more than simply speak about the disconnect and actually conceptualize, implement and fund realistic ways to connect the communities, he will be on the way to building a significant bridge for Jewish communities outside of Israel.

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PA Again is Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have announced that they will not accept the tax money that was collected for them by Israel.

The Oslo Accords, signed in Washington DC in 1993 and then in Taba in 1995, outlined that Israel will collect all taxes on all imports to the Palestinians transported through Israeli ports and then transfer the taxes to the Palestinians monthly.

The taxes amount to 50% of the Palestinian budget.

Palestinian logic for rejecting their own money is that Israel is planning on annexing parts of the West Bank.

This is just another example of poor decision making and poor leadership on the part of the Palestinians.

Rejecting the money does not hurt Israel. Actually, not taking the tax money is helpful. Israel will earn interest on the Palestinian tax money.

Hoisted on their own petard, Palestinian style.

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PA Say Will Talk w Israel thru Russia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have sent a message that they are willing to resume talks with Israel.

The catch is that they want Russia to moderate – not the United States.

This is a major step forward on the part of the Palestinians. It is also a very sly diplomatic move.

This catapults Russia into a central role in the Middle East.

The Palestinians know full well that Israel has never agreed to talks run by Russia instead of the United States. Hopefully, they will not agree this time either.

Palestinian Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad Al-Maliki said on Tuesday. “We trust President Vladimir Putin and are sure that such a meeting would bear fruit, and succeed in getting us back to the talks, as well as stopping the Israeli plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.”

Israel has a desperate need to find world approbation. That might just persuade them to take the bait and engage in a very destructive arrangement.

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How Iran Hacked Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


How was Iran able to hack into Israel’s water pumping computers?

How was it possible that Iranian hackers were able to get so deep into a secure Israeli system?

The answer is twofold.

First, Israel’s water system was compromised.

Second, Iran worked hard to find the water system’s weakness.

Iran is getting better and better at hacking. They are spending more time searching and finding weaknesses within systems. And they are sharing information with other hackers, especially with anarchist hackers.

All this can and should be expected.

What is surprising is that Israel did not immediately repel their Iranian hackers. And that’s why Iran was able to get in as far as they did, before being expelled.

This cannot happen again. Israel needs to do better. Israel needs to be better.

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How to Stop COVID
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Israel’s expert on the spread of COVID, Dr. Eli Waxman, has clearly explained how to stop a rise in cases now that the country has opened.

Obviously, when Israel - or for that matter any society, opens after having been shut down for a pandemic, there will be some reinfections. If the reinfections get out of hand, the country will need to shut down again.

To stop Covid-19 from spreading and resulting in a second shut down, Dr. Waxman says that there are three essentials and time is of the essence.

They are: Test - Trace – Isolate.

And, Waxman says, you only have 48 hours to accomplish it all.

Test – immediately, as soon as there are symptoms.
Trace – everyone the patient contacted and test them.
Isolate – immediately.

If it takes 5 days, the country will inevitably go back into lockdown. After 5 days the first patient will have infected the maximum number of people they will infect and all the other patients will follow this pattern quickly.

By day six, thousands of people would have been infected.

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Russia Expands in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 31, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed his defense minister to get approval from Syria for Russia to expand their military foundations there. Truth is, it’s really, simply, a pro forma request.

Russia already has two very large permanent positions in Syria. In Latakia they have an airbase and in Tartus they have a naval base. Putin wants to expand these facilities and probably wants to build new ones.

Russia has been in Syria supporting Assad since 2015. The Russians are committed to stability in Syria and they are securing President Bashar Assad’s position.

Without Russia, Assad would have fallen.

For this reason alone, Russia will get permission to build and expand within Syria.

The rest of us must carefully watch the interplay between Russia and Syria+.
Syria is the best place for Russia to be if they want to monitor the goings-on in the Middle East and to play a pivotal role in the Middle East. It is a perfect place for them to monitor everything that transpires in the region.

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Iran Bill- No Zionist Tech
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Iran passed a law making it illegal for anyone in Iran to use any Israeli technology.
That includes software and technology.

The law reads “confronting the hostile acts of the Zionist regime against peace and security.”

Fars, an official Iranian media outlet, quoted the bill: “Any cooperation or spying for the Zionist is equal to enmity towards Allah and corruption on earth.”

The Iranian bill spoke of Israel’s actions as “warmongering and terrorist moves, siege of Gaza and settlement construction, displacing the Palestinian people, occupation of other countries’ lands including the Golan.”

Interestingly, when the Grand Ayatollah Shirazi was asked recently if it was permissible to use a vaccine against COVID-19 if it was developed in Israel, he answered that “yes” it was permissible if there was no alternative medicine. But he also said that “it is not permissible to buy and sell anything from the Zionists.”

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Mossad Got Millions of Covid Masks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s clandestine Mossad – translated as “the agency” - secured miraculous amounts of supplies to fight Coronavirus.

80 million masks, 30 tons of disinfectant, 10,000 respirators, 8 million goggles were procured. 142 million more masks are scheduled to arrive over the next few months.

Many of the supplies were made in China. Some were both made in and came from China.

But most of the supplies were procured from countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel. How could this happen? It happened because the Mossad, unlike the foreign ministry, has deep relations and interaction with people in many different positions in these countries.

These contacts were developed in order to unite against Iran. And because of those relationships the Mossad was able to secure all that protective gear for Israel.

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Iran Invested $30 B in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been supporting Bashar Assad in Syria from the very start of the Syrian civil war over a decade ago.

Iranian costs for their involvement in Syria comes to $30 billion. That number comes from Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, an outgoing member of the Iranian Parliament's Security and Foreign Policy Committee. He is quoted in Etemad newspaper an official government media outlet.

That number is twice as large as Iran’s annual defense budget and 6.5% of the GDP.

In addition to supporting Assad with military assistance, Iran also helped by providing oil and cash. They also lent advisers and consultants. In exchange for their help in Syria, Iran has built a port in Syria and received a major stake in the Syrian telecom monopoly.

Helping and defending Syria was an investment for Iran. Their biggest return is a land bridge connecting Iran to the Mediterranean Sea. And that’s worth every cent of the ten years and the $30 billion.

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Butterflies Land in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Butterflies, millions of butterflies, have descended into the butterfly garden in Eilat.
The butterfly garden was created in 2018. It sits in the bird reserve just outside of Israel’s southern most city in the Red Sea.

People come from all over the world to see the stunning colors and the fluttering of butterfly wings.

Every year, butterflies use the garden as a place to rest, just like their bird partners, as they migrate from Africa to Europe.

The butterflies migrate 9000 miles. No single butterfly makes the entire trip. A migration can take six generations of butterflies to complete.

This is another example of how Israel has become a world capital and magnet - not just for technology but also for those interested in studying, watching or admiring the butterfly.

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Argentina Let Rabbis In
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Coronavirus touches all corners of the world. We tend to focus on where we and our loved ones are located – but there is a whole big world out there and whether we pay attention or not, very often, what happens in other parts of the world has an impact on our lives.

Argentina has closed themselves off from the world. No commercial flights in or out. This has had a huge impact on business.

Argentina is the 5th largest exporter of meat in the world. Israel is their 3rd largest client, buying over $100 million in kosher meat from Argentina per year.

Before Corona, in order to certify that meat as kosher, teams of Israeli rabbis, ritual slaughterers, would travel to Argentina to properly kill the animals according to Jewish law, thereby making them kosher. The rabbis would remain in Argentina for three months to slaughter the cattle and then return home.

Since COVID the rabbis had not been permitted into Argentina.

Until now. This week the government of Argentina said that they will co-sponsor a private jet to bring in the rabbis. They will permit them to prepare the meat for kosher certification.

This will help keep the supply of kosher meat at full capacity – which is good news for Israel. It also means that Argentina will maintain its position in the top 5 of world meat exporters – which is good news for Argentina.

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Palestinians Reject Arab Aid
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have refused Coronavirus aid. The aid they have rejected is from the United Arab Emirates.

So why refuse the aid? Why refuse 16 tons of aid that includes 10 ventilators?
It’s simple – if you’re a Palestinian.

The aid was flown from Abu Dhabi to Tel Aviv on Etihad Air on the first ever commercial flight from UAE to Israel.

The Palestinians rejected the aid saying: “We refused the aid from the UAE because it wasn’t coordinated through us or any of our systems”.

At a press briefing in Bethlehem on Thursday, Palestinian Health Minister Mai Alkaila put it this way: “We are an authority and have our sovereignty and we can’t accept such aid without coordinating with us.”

Palestinians keep making mistake after mistake.

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Iran's Final Solution
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Iran’s Al Quds Day, which is really a “week of destroying Israel” has taken a new turn. An extreme turn, even for Iran.

The Grand Ayatollah has sent out a poster. The poster is both on-line and plastered all over Iran.

The poster reads: “Palestine will be free. The final solution. Resistance is referendum.”

Final solution is a very clear reference to Hitler and the Holocaust. The Grand Ayatollah clarified the poster’s message saying that he did not mean killing all Jews – just Israeli Jews.

Obviously, Jewish leaders took exception to the use of the term final solution. Remember, Iran regularly promises to destroy Israel and the Jews.

The poster was on the front screen of the Ayatollah’s website. The message was written in Farsi, in Arabic and of course, in English.

There was no misunderstanding. The message is perfectly clear.

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NYers Burying in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 19, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

It costs $200,000 to rent a private plane and fly to Israel.

During Coronavirus extremely wealthy American Jews have been renting planes and bringing loved ones to Israel – for burial.

In some instances, families have shared planes and brought several bodies at one time.

They enter, bury and leave, all under the radar.

And they are all in violation of Israeli law which requires Americans to quarantine for 14 days after arrival in Israel

On Monday a family of seven brought their mother to Israel. They are major philanthropists. The group went from the airport to a synagogue in Holon and met with people. From there they went to a cemetery in Jerusalem where over 100 people were gathered. That, too, is against the law.

After the funeral the family went back to the airport and returned to NYC.

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A/S is on the Rise
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 18, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a dramatic rise in anti-Semitism in the United States.

In the state of New Jersey, the rise is even higher.

Jewish leaders are now afraid that Jews will be blamed for the spread of COVID-19 and that will spark even more anti-Semitism.

The logic is sound.

The media has been covering numerous violations of social distancing in Hareidi Jewish cities, towns and communities. Almost everyone has seen large scale Jewish celebrations and funerals taking place despite Coronavirus.

Incidents of anti-Semitism in the US increased 12 percent.

Incidents of anti-Semitism in New Jersey jumped 73 percent.

These are numbers from the end of 2019 – they do not even reflect post Coronavirus attacks in 2020.

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Bad Season in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I’ve Been Thinking:

Every year, during this season, Iranians dedicate a special day to Israel. The day is called Al Quds Day. It’s other name is Destroy Israel Day.

Iranian Al Quds Day 2020 is scheduled for next week - right in the middle of
Coronavirus restrictions and social distancing. That shows you how badly official Iran hates Israel.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is organizing rallies in hundreds of cities and towns throughout Iran. Rally participants will be in cars - no marches and no one outside of cars. There will be virtual rallies in each town and city.

Iranians showed their hatred of Israel in another way this weekend.

The Tomb of Esther and Mordecai in the city of Hamedan was torched over the weekend. The tomb is a national heritage site in Iran. Fortunately, according to reports, the fire did not destroy the tomb. We hope those reports are correct.

Jewish leadership is calling for authorities in Iran to find and punish the arsonists.

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Iran Sending Oil to Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 15, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has sent five oil tankers filled with unrefined oil to Venezuela. The first tanker left Iran in March and made its way through the Suez Canal and into the Atlantic Ocean. Four more have departed and are on their way.

All five tankers are being tracked via GPS and satellite. They are being tracked by oil tracking companies.

The tankers are obviously violating the sanctions imposed upon Iran. And they do not care.

The question begs asking: Why is Iran sending oil to Venezuela, one of the largest producers of oil in the world?

The easy answer is: Sanctions.

There are only a limited few countries that Iran or Venezuela can import from and export to. They are North Korean, Syria and Cuba.

Iran does very little refining of oil. Venezuelan refineries have been slowed down and even shut down because of the sanctions. These shipments will allow Venezuela to start refining again.

The West, especially the United States, is going to increase pressure and call Iran and Venezuela out on this violation.

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Who's Most Evil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Which is the most evil country in the world today?

Several nations vie for that distinction. Iran, Russia and China top the list.

Then again, it’s all about perspective.

The Supreme Leader of Iran The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei announced that the most evil country in the world is the United States. His exact words were: “The worst and most evil government.”

The Grand Ayatollah proved his point by saying: “What government do you know which assassinates our military commander during an operation.”

The Supreme Leader was referring to the US assassination of Iranian General Qasem Suleimani on January 3, 2020 just as he was leaving the airport in Baghdad, Iraq.

For Iran, Suleimani was a national hero.

For the United States and the West, he was an evil terrorist.

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Jerry Stiller Dies- The Mighty Have Fallen
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Jerry Stiller died in his home on the Upper West Side of Manhattan less than one month shy of his 93rd birthday.

Stiller was a legend. A true comedic actor and personality.

And yet, he is best known for being a father. Ben Stiller’s father, who announced his death. And George Costanza’s father, his TV son on the hit show Seinfeld where he was part of the ensemble from 1993-1998.

Jerry Stiller, together with his wife Anne Meara who died in 2015 and with whom he regularly performed, had an enormously successful career. The endearing and very funny couple joked that they would end their act before it ended their marriage.

Stiller was a comedian’s comic.

And because Seinfeld is still running in re-runs and on demand, Jerry Stiller is known to younger viewers as the ultimate Jewish father of a neurotic Jewish son.

I will miss seeing this small man with a big personality saunter through our Manhattan neighborhood.

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Yes Christians Want to Convert Jews
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

GodTV and the Hebrew Christian Channel has been in the news of late. They are clearly looking to attract converts from Israel.

Israelis are livid about the station’s content and their intent to convert Israelis to charismatic Christianity.

But can you really blame them? The station never hid their intentions.

Jews in general and Israeli leadership, in particular, misread their intent. They simply thought that they would be content with the support of Christian Zionists and table their ultimate goal of converting Jews.

They were simply naďve.

Israel should have stipulated that when the Christian media was sanctioned and allowed to broadcast conversion and issues related to conversion not be broadcast.

But Israel didn’t do that.

From the point of view of Christian TV, it’s quite simple. Christians support Israel because they want Jews to convert and because they firmly understand that supporting Israel is doing God’s will.

Christians who support Israel have an agenda that they do not hide. Israelis who nurture Christian support know well what the Christians want.
It is Israeli leadership that didn’t understand.

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Learn From Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 11, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Three Arab Gulf states have asked Israel’s Sheba Hospital for help in treating COVID-19.

Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and (probably) Kuwait have reached out to the Israeli hospital in Ramat Gan.

It is important to understand that the contact was made directly to the hospital - not through political agents.

It seems that members of the royal families and their emissaries travelled to Israel to visit the hospital in March. Apparently, they liked what they saw.

There is no doubt that other hospitals around the world have been approached by countries in need of assistance. Over time information about all of these contacts will come to light.

The world is watching Israel. Even traditional enemies of Israel are watching.

They are asking for help and learning from Israel. Finally, a positive comes out of Covid-19.

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Bibi Tells World Leaders About COVID
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 10, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, via a conference call, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had a conversation with seven other world leaders about COVID-19.

Netanyahu explained how Israel has, thus far, been successful in attacking Coronavirus.

What is not clear is what will happen as Israel partially re-opens and returns to normal. Especially with the re-opening of schools and kindergartens.
Netanyahu spoke to his colleagues about “returning to a safe routine in the shadow of virus” and readying for a potential second outbreak.

In a statement from the Prime Minister’s office describing the call Netanyahu is quoted saying: “In fact, no one knows what will happen we open our economies and schools. We must be ready and prepared for an accordion effect and the possibility we’ll need to close again”.

The world is watching Israel very closely.

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Why Jordan Has No COVID
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East has been devasted by COVID-19.

Except for Jordan.

Jordan, a country of 10 million people, has had less than 500 people testing positive for COVID-19 and has now lifted all restrictions from coronavirus.

Israel, which has a population of 9.5 million, has had 230 deaths and 15,000 cases of people infected by COVID-19.

Yes, Jordan closed itself to high risk countries like China.

Yes, Jordan shut down all travel. In fact, travel with vehicles was completely banned. 1,000 cars were impounded for travelling and 2,000 people arrested for driving.

Yes, 5,800 people who arrived by air were quarantined in hotels at the Dead Sea.
People were permitted to walk and buy food and necessities - but only on foot.

The shutdown in Jordan started on March 18th.

Whatever they did, until now, Jordanians have been successful in stopping Coronavirus.

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Syria in Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Behind the scenes things are worse than one thinks in Syria.

Rami Maklouf is Syria’s richest man and a cousin of President Bashar Assad. But over the past week Maklouf has taped and posted 2 scathing attacks against his cousin on Facebook.

Maklouf is claiming that the Syrian regime is arresting his employees and stifling his business. He asserts that Assad wants to nationalize his businesses.

That would be a rather hefty move for Assad and Syria. Maklouf owns 60% of all of Syria’s production and business. He has amassed a $10 billion net worth.

Maklouf and Assad are more than cousins. They are friends. Maklouf has backed and bankrolled Bashar Assad since his first day in office. He has contributed billions of dollars to support Assad and to fight the rebels trying to oust him.

So why the split? Why the dramatic change?

It all goes back to Russia.

Russia suggested that Assad tax his cousin. Maklouf responded that it was excessive and rejected the tax assessment. So Assad marched in and started arresting his cousin’s employees.

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Facebook Closes Iran Fake Sites
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Facebook has just shut down 500 accounts.

They are all fake accounts and they are all connected to Iran.

Every month Facebook issues a report about the accounts they have closed due to violations of terms.

In this case the 500 are all Iranian news sites - Iranian fake news sites.

This is not the first time something like this has happened. Two years ago, Reuters uncovered 70 sites created by Iran to spread fake news – total lies about what was happening in Iran.

This time Facebook investigated and easily discovered that these sites were produced by official Iranian government resources - disguised as Western news outlets.

These sites were spreading falsehoods building Iran up and showing the best side of Iran. The sites were all set up for Westerners to read and to learn about Iranian news.

But the news was totally fabricated.

This is just a beginning.

At first glance these sites resemble the Russian sites which Facebook has shut down. They are all similar in structure and style. They are all propaganda sites.

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Iran Changes Currency
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Iran has changed its currency from the rial to the toman.

Effectively, it means that four zeroes have been lopped off the existing currency.
1 toman is worth 10,000 rials.

The change of a currency happens when a simple re-valuation is not enough.

In this case US and UN sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy. Add to that coronavirus and the impact it has had on both the country and the economy of Iran and one can understand why Iran acted so drastically.

The toman was the official Iranian currency in the1890’s.

Over the years after the rial became the currency, the toman remained a denomination within the rial currency. It was a denomination one level higher than a rial.

Consider this another indication of Iran collapsing under pressure.

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ISIS is Alive
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is back and getting stronger and stronger in Iraq.

In one of their attacks in Iraq, ISIS attacked an Iraqi Shiite force called Hashad al Shaabi and killed ten members of the group.

Hashad al Shaabi is also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

ISIS aka ISIL aka Daesh is growing throughout Iraq - especially in Anbar, Kirkuk and Mosul.

Hashad al Shaabi published this assessment of the attacks: “The Popular mobilisation forces and security forces have killed and wounded a number of ISIL [Daesh] fighters after being exposed to significant attacks on Balad and Mekeeshfah south of Tikrit … The Hashad also lost 10 members, while several others were wounded in clashes between the two sides.”

Egypt has announced that their forces, too, are in conflict with ISIS.
Fifty ISIS members were killed by Egyptian forces, many more were arrested.

This must be a wake up call to us all.

ISIS is back and ISIS is striking at their targets across the Middle East.

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Schools Open in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Schools began in Israel today. Not all schools - but about 1 million students went back to their classrooms.

First through third graders and eleventh and twelfth graders were the students chosen to return to traditional classes. Their classrooms were limited to 17 students each day, with students attending school on alternating days.

The cities of Tel Aviv and Beersheba decided not to follow the national decision. Their decision went back and forth – deciding to open and then not to open.

80,000 special needs students went back to school today, joining the 60,000 who returned to class last week.

127,000 hareidi students, in grades seven through twelve, went back to regular learning today, as well.

The choice of returning grades was not an arbitrary decision.

11th and 12th grade students will start preparing for their very important matriculation exams known as the Bagrut. These tests determine whether they qualify to attend university. In certain course and disciplines the entire year is solely dedicated to preparing for these matriculation exams.

Excluding Pesach, 5 weeks of traditional, classroom instruction have been lost.

Now the big test facing Israel’s Ministry or Education and Ministry of Health is determining how many teachers and school workers test positive for Covid-19 because they have returned to their classrooms.

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Iran Teams w Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

In a press conference at the State Department, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo implored countries to prevent Iran from flying over their air space.

More specifically, the United States secretary of state was referring to the way Iran’s Mahan Air has been flying over and delivering support to Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela.

Reports say that Venezuela has paid Iran 6 tons of gold.

Pompeo said: "Over the last few days, multiple aircraft belonging to Mahan Air have transferred unknown support to the Maduro regime …This is the same terrorist airline that Iran used to move weapons and fighters around the Middle East."

Pompeo continued saying that the flights "must stop". He said that countries should prevent Mahan Air overflight rights "just as many have already denied landing rights to this sanctioned airline."

Iran and Venezuela are uniting to help one another. They are both also strongly committed to hurting the United States and her Western allies.

This is just the beginning.

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Israel to have Drive-in Concerts
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


The entertainment industry has a taken a huge hit from Coronavirus. From Broadway to Fenway they are feeling the pinch.

Two Israeli live concert producers have come up with almost the same solution for producing live concerts while adhering to social distancing.

The solution is a variation on the theme of a “drive-in movie.”

They are proposing using outdoor space large enough to accommodate 1,000 cars, stages, speakers, performers and screens. They would restrict patrons to two people per car.

Food would be available, probably through delivery to the cars.

The organizers have scouted spots in suburban Tel Aviv and in the South of Israel near Beer Sheva. They are investigating sites in the Haifa area, too.

This flashback to the era of the drive-in is a very good idea.

Live performances with the windows down augmented by individual car speakers or phones with apps could provide for the perfect concert during the era of COVID-19. The stage can be used to screen movies when not being used for a concert.

The more things change, as the saying goes, the more they stay the same.

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Happy Birthday Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 29, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Today is Israel’s 72nd birthday.

It behooves us to take a moment and consider just how miraculous it is that Israel exists today.

72 years ago, when Israel was declared, it was doubtful that the Jewish State would last even a week. With the announcement came a war by the Arab states surrounding Israel to annihilate the newly announced Jewish State.

We all know the result of that war. And 72 years later, remarkably, Israel continues to grow and help and influence not just Jews around the world, but the entire world.

Traditionally, on Independence Day, air-force jets fly over the center of the country including bases that are open to the public. Not today.

Today, because of Coronavirus, those jets flew over every hospital throughout the country. A schedule was published. Those patients who could leave their beds went outside to wave.

It is inspiring to watch the videos.

The 72nd birthday of Israel is inspiring. Yom Huledet Sameach. Happy Birthday Israel. May it be a year of health.

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Bombings in Damascus
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Several Damascus suburbs were bombed this week.

They were more than suburbs, they were the military bases of Iran, Hezbollah and other Iranian backed Syrian militias.

Israel was, most probably, responsible for the attack.

Here’s why:

These sites were hotspots. They were locations from which attacks against Israel were organized and staged.

Iran and Hezbollah, as well as the Syrian militias, are fighting on several fronts.
Their priority is defending Syrian President Bashar Assad. Their goal is attacking Israel.

They move weapons into Hezbollah storage depots in Lebanon. Israel needs to stop the advance of these weapons.

Iran often trains Hezbollah in advanced military strategies against Israel. Israel needs to interrupt this procedure.

The evidence isn’t is, but it is not unreasonable to think that Israel was responsible for the bombing of these suburbs.

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Boys Make Masks From Kippot for Homeless
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Two brothers from Houston, Matthew and Jeremy Jason, collected kippot and then together with the rest of their family they added elastic loops and created face masks. Masks for COVID-19 social distancing.

The masks were then given to the homeless of Houston.

They called the campaign “Kippahs to the Rescue.”

The boys transformed 160 kippot that they had lying around the house. They were kippot from bar mitzvahs and weddings.

These kippot are all double lined. The double lining makes them perfect for filter masks. The elastics attached on the sides go around the ears.

Matthew, one of the brothers, said: “In less than a week we were able to collect enough of them to make 160 face masks … My parents, brothers and I worked very hard to sew elastic bands on them, and they were ready to be delivered by Friday.”

Good for them!

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Cyber Attack hits Irael's Water
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 26, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Sometime between Friday night and Saturday night terrorists attacked Israel’s water system.

The attack came in the form of a cyberattack and it focused on chlorine and pumping departments.

According to an internal memo between the head of Israel’s water department and the head of Israel’s cyber security, the attack was repelled and Israel successfully defended itself. No damage was done. The memo ordered everyone to change their passwords - especially those in the chlorine control department.

If that was not possible, they were instructed to remove themselves and to take their system offline immediately.

This attack was sophisticated. It penetrated deep into the system. It leads me to infer that the attack came from one of three sources: either Iran, Russia or China.
Iran, Russia and China are the three biggest hacking governments in the world.

Penetrating Israel’s security requires a great deal of computer and hacking power.

This was not a high schooler having a good time or winning a bet.

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Israel Lifts Restrictions
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 24, 20Friday April 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Israel has decided to permit the re-opening of certain stores and services.

Stores situated on streets (but not in malls) may open. Barber shops and hair salons may also open.

Gyms, restaurants and cafes may not open yet. Delivery from those establishments will continue.

Each store must position an employee with a digital no-touch thermometer outside the door and everyone who enters must have their temperature taken. That includes employees.

Violating distancing laws could lead to half a year in prison and/or hefty fines.

Social distancing must take place within the stores and barriers must be placed between customers and employees. In barber shops gloves must be replaced after each client.

A store that is 250 sq ft large may only have 6 customers at a time while a store with 325 sq ft may have 8.

The government will discuss opening other business next week.

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Iran Responds to Trump
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

There is more happening in the spat between Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the United States taking place in the Persian Gulf.

Head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hussein Salami, has responded to US President Trump’s tweet threating Iran by telling the US Naval fleet that next time the Iranians threaten them, shoot them down.

The Revolutionary Guards head responded on National Iranian television and said: "I have ordered our naval forces to destroy any American terrorist force in the Persian Gulf that threatens the security of Iran's military or non-military ships. Security of the Persian Gulf is part of Iran's strategic priorities."

General Salami was indignant. He said that whatever happens in the Persian Gulf is under their purview and control of the Gulf is Iran’s strategic goal and interest.

Speaking on National TV is significant. It demonstrates to the people of Iran that Iran is standing up to the United States.

What wasn’t covered in the Iranian press was another message from President Trump, tweeted later in the day on Wednesday. This tweet clarified the earlier aggressive Trump announcement about the US Navy protecting itself. Trump’s message was: “I have not changed the rules of engagement.”

Context and clarity count.

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Trump Says Shoot Down Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Following up on yesterday’s entry about Iran toying with US Naval forces in the Persian Gulf when 11 Iranian naval boats toyed with the US Navy’s 5th Fleet …

In a tweet, President Trump explained that he gave a direct order to the US Navy to shoot at the Iranians if this were ever to happen again.

The president’s exact tweet was: "I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea."

At the same time, Iranian media announced that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards successfully launched a satellite into orbit.

It’s all happening as Iran confronts the devastating effects of Coronavirus.

Trump is pushing back by ordering not just warning shots but orders “to shoot down and destroy any and all.”

This is not an ambiguous command. It is very clear. Now let’s see if Iran does it again.

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Iran Toys w US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The US 5th Fleet protects the Persian Gulf.

For sixty minutes yesterday, that’s one full hour, 11 Iranian Navy small boats dangerously and provocatively danced around the United States fleet. Included in the US fleet are the USS Paul Hamilton, a destroyer ship and the USS Lewis B Puller, a Naval Landing Base, home to a team of Apache attack helicopters.

The US Navy used tried to contact the Iranian vessels using speakers and even loud bursts of warning sirens. Finally, the Iranian boats responded and then left.
FARS, an official Iranian media outlet, mentioned the incident but without giving details.

The US Navy issued a statement that they were in international waters. The statement read: "The dangerous and provocative actions increased the risk of miscalculation and collision ... and were not in accordance with the obligation under international law to act with due regard for the safety of other vessels in the area."

Iran is pushing the envelope. Iran is trying to draw the United States into conflict.

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Russia Intimidates US Navy
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday, for the second time in 4 days, a Russian fighter jet danced around US reconnaissance planes.

This was not simply a fly by or a fly over.

The Russian SU-35 flew multiple times around the US P-8A, an unarmed craft that only receives and sends information. One of the techs on board the US plane filmed and then tweeted about one of the incidents.

The United States Navy acknowledged the events.

This US plane is attached to the 6th Fleet, the massive US presence in the Mediterranean. Since it began its mission the 6th Fleet’s mission is to check aggression in the area and maintain peace in the region.

On the other hand, Russia’s presence in the region is to gain power and influence.

This was not reckless. This was intimidation. It may have been the actions of officers in the arena and not in Moscow – we do not know. Maybe they were trying to impress Iran. These actions against a US plane are not in Moscow’s best interests.

Games of this sort have the potential to explode.

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3 Scenarios
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Here is what I see happening in Israeli politics.
There are three scenarios:

One - highly unlikely - Blue and White and Likud will sign an agreement to create a unity government

Two - more likely – efforts to form a unity government will be unsuccessful and the country launches into a fourth election

Three - most likely – Netanyahu successfully cobbles together a government

A Likud government, if successful, will not be the most stable. But then again, most governments in Israel have not been stable. Neither will it be the shortest government in history.

The 16th Israeli government was the shortest government in the history of Israel.

Golda Meir was elected in December of 1973 just after the Yom Kippur War. Her government was formed on March 10 and on April 11th Golda resigned. The government was replaced on June 3rd. The government lasted 85 days if you calculate from March through June. By the shortest standard of measurement, from March to April, Golda’s government lasted 32 days.

Another Bibi government would certainly last longer.

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20 Die in Amsterdam Home
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 14, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Jewish old age home in Amsterdam had 120 residents. Since Purim, only 5 weeks ago, 20 of those patients have died.

There are approximately 15,000 Jews in Amsterdam today. The death of 20 elderly Jews has sent a chilling current of fear and terror through the Jewish community of Amsterdam.

Amsterdam is a city with a long and rich Jewish history. It was also the home of Anne Frank.

The threat of Coronavirus frightens everyone, for this community it is now even more frightening.

It has been determined that the virus began spreading at the old age home’s Purim party. Twenty deaths already and many more who will probably die.

The virus is particularly deadly to the elderly, they comprise the vast majority of coronavirus fatalities. This is one of many ghastly examples.

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Leaders Shouldn’t violate social distancing
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Israel is considering - and will probably institute, another total lockdown from Tuesday through Sunday.

In the end, there will probably be a compromise and the lockdown will be in force from Wednesday night through Saturday night.

In the midst of these lockdown discussions Israelis are voicing their distress over the behaviors of their beloved president, Reuven Rivlin, and of Prime Minister Netanyahu over the first day of Passover.

President Rivlin’s daughter Rivi and her children left their home and came to eat with him in his home. And Prime Minister Netanyahu’s son Avner came to visit and eat with his parents.

Rivlin apologized saying since his wife died his children have been helping him around the house and in his presidential tasks.

The problem is — that is exactly what most children do for their parents.
These children, like all others, must stay away.

There are no exceptions.

There is one law for everyone. Not one law for the people and another law for the families of leadership. That would be a classic form of corruption. Even more, leaders should live according to a higher, more demanding, standard.

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Bibi is a Master
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 12 2020

I've Been Thinking:


With Covid-19 taking over the headlines and with our concerns over spending Passover away from family and with matzah all around us tempting us to overeat and indulge in one of the few pleasures still available and permissible, we tend to forget that other events are still occurring. Events that should be, and are, of concern.

The deadline for Benny Gantz to form his government is hours away.
Before Passover Gantz asked Israel’s President, Ruby Rivlin, for an extension of that deadline. The request was denied.

Over the past few weeks Gantz supporters have bolted. Seeing an opportunity to reclaim his position as the sole prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu has requested that the president ask him to form a government.

Netanyahu has 59 of the 60 Knesset seats sewn up and secure. All he needs is one more, two would be better.

More than once over the years an Israeli prime minister has successfully cobbled out a government by swaying parties and people to join his coalition. The modus operandi is to offer sweet treats. The sweetest and most obvious treats are power and positions.

Once upon a time all you had to offer was a Mitsubishi - not even a Volvo - but those days are long gone.

If Netanyahu successfully forms a government he will have done it by pulling Gantz’s Blue and White party apart. The only thing that united them was their hatred for Bibi which, if Netanyahu is successful, makes it all the more ironic.

But when Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz United to fight Covid-19, those who hated Bibi most jumped ship. It was a perfect plan, laid out by Bibi, to lead Blue and White to self destruction.

We will know what happens in a few more days.

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Muslims Suffering from Coronavirus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The month of Ramadan starts on or around April 23. (The dating of Ramadan will be the subject of another entry.)

Ramadan is a month long fast during which Muslims fast during the day and break fast with friends and family and night.

That break fast is called Iftar.

In addition to massive family gatherings, most communities host public Iftar for the general public - especially the poor.

Egypt has just announced the cancellation of Iftar celebrations. They are asking that Muslims break fast in private and do not engage in large celebrations.

Under normal circumstances the fast ends with prayers in Mosques. People return home with friends and extended family. This Ramadan, that must not happen.

The last ten days of month of Ramadan taken on even more intensity. They are called Itikaf. Muslims spend more time in Mosque, repenting and the final fast days have even more significance.

Egypt and hopefully, other leaders in the Arab and Muslim world, will step up and enforce social distancing—not permitting either Iftar or Itkaf.

We are monitoring Muslim leadership. Hopefully, they will react with a strong united voice, standing up against this silent mass murderer named COVID-19.

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BDS Will Take Vaccine from Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Omar Barghouti is the founder of BDS.

Barghouti recently gave a webinar on the Arabic Facebook page discussing how Palestinians need to continue to fight “Normalization with Israel.” Normalization is code for accepting Israel’s right to exist. It is a term used constantly in Arabic and in translation.

While addressing this issue, the founder of BDS said that if Israel develops a vaccine against COVID -19 there is no problem with Palestinians getting that vaccine. He explained that there would be no issues of hypocrisy and no conflict with the goals and values of BDS.

He said: “if you use medical equipment from Israel – it’s not a problem. Cooperating with Israel against the virus – to begin with, we didn’t consider it normalization…

The BDS announced normalization criteria long ago. If Israel finds a cure for cancer, for example, or any other virus, then there is no problem in cooperating with Israel to save millions of lives.”

However, Barghout did add, “up until now, we have not been in a situation where we need Israel urgently and no one else can save us but Israel. If that will happen, saving lives is more important than anything else.”

The webinar was created because Palestinian leadership foresees a massive humanitarian crisis in the West Bank and Gaza and they are blaming Israel for that crisis in advance.

Ideology only goes so deep for BDS.

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New Masks for Beards
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 6, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel, like the United States and many other countries, is now requiring that facial cover be worn when going outside.

But masks do not properly fit bearded men. So now Israel is certifying the safety and production of masks that properly fit men with beards. This will be useful.

There is also discussion in the Chief Rabbinate, as well as in Israel’s Ministry of Health, about asking men - or even permitting men - not to shave so that they can properly wear masks.

The same discussions took place back in the Gulf War when everyone was required to wear a gas mask and beards prevented a proper fit. Then, too, there were special masks for bearded men but they were limited in number and were also heavier and less comfortable.

These masks are not N-95’s. They are surgical style masks that properly and more completely cover the nose and mouths of those with beards so that there is no seepage or spillage when exhaling.

Remember, in this case the mask protects others from you – not you from others.

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COVID Tests Slow- Chemical Shortage
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

COVID-19 testing should be at its peak – and yet it is slowing down.

Why? How can that be? The increased availability of test kits and the institution of self testing has resulted in a dramatic shift, allowing hospitals and doctors to test many more people than they could several weeks ago.

BUT there is now a shortage of reagents. In other words, labs that run the tests do not have the chemicals needed to stabilize the virus and evaluate the test.
That’s why. That’s how.

The reagent in this case is Guanidine Thiocynate. The compound is known as GITC - it renders the virus safe and allows the tester to focus on the RNA and run the coronavirus test.

Weeks ago, when Israel saw that they were running low, a lab at the Rabin Medical Center started to find an alternative. After all, they reckoned, GITC is a chemical – maybe they could they make a facsimile. They now think that they have succeeded.

This past week, as Israel ran low of the reagent, testing in Israel has been dropping. Hopefully, if the facsimile reagent is successful, those testing numbers will once again be able to rise.

This alternative could be critical in the continued fight against COVID-19.

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Health Minister - Irresponsible
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Minister of Health and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. He is 71 years old.

After the news broke it forced the prime minister back into isolation until he could be tested. Prime Minister Netanyahu had just come out of isolation because his adviser on the Hareidi community had tested positive.

Other cabinet ministers and advisers are in isolation until their tests return.
Health Minister Yaakov Litzman is under attack for having spurned his own regulations against group prayer. Witnesses say that on Monday Litzman prayed in a Ger community prayer house.

Considering that nearly 30% of positive cases have been contracted in synagogues, it is likely he picked it up there.

If the story about Litzman engaging in group prayer is true, it was an extremely irresponsible act. If true, the prime minister should immediately relieve him of his duties and remove him from his post.

Even better, Litzman should resign. This would send a message of how very important social distancing is for the safety of the country.

Unfortunately, these scenarios are extremely unlikely.

While it is true that prayer in public is important in Judaism and Jewish law, saving a life in undoubtedly more important than public prayer. And killing is forbidden. When people flaunt social distancing regulations and go to synagogues the likelihood of someone dying because of that act is great. It is a simple and proven chain reaction.

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Cabinet Breifed on Mini Series
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I’ve Been Thinking:

Israel’s cabinet has been meeting regularly to update and decide how to confront the pandemic called COVID-19.

The cabinet is also briefed on how others are handling this crisis.

During one meeting the prime minister showed a clip of how Iran is dumping and burying hundreds of bodies in pits with bulldozers.

Or at least, that’s what he thought he was seeing. In truth, it was actually a movie clip from the Hallmark Network’s 2007 miniseries called Pandemic and starring Dustin Hoffman.

Obviously, Netanyahu did not know this. But neither was this clip vetted. The country with one of the greatest intel systems in the world made a big error. And so have lots of other people who have seen this video.

Iranians in the Diaspora have been circulating the clip. They want to paint the current leadership in Iran as evil. They are correct, they are evil. But there is enough real evidence of the bad acts of Iranian leadership - one need not spread untruths.

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Exit Strategy for COVID-19
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


The crisis of COVID-19 continues.

We should not yet begin to think that an end is in sight or to develop an exit strategy. Before that can happen, several other things must happen.

The growth of new cases needs to top out. When that happens, we will see it in the bell curve. The bell curve will show that in local studies, over a sustained period, fewer and fewer people have been infected.

The number of critical care patients needs to drop. Fewer and fewer people need to be on respirators. The key word here is “fewer” not “few” as in total numbers.

It is percentages, rather than numbers, that are the essential figure.
When that happens, when hospitals and their ICU’s are not backed up, we can begin an exit strategy. That strategy will probably come stage by stage, step by step, location by location – from community to county to city to state to country.

And it will also be determined by health status. Healthy with low risk communities will be the first to be able to ease up – not eliminate, merely ease up, on restrictions.

Monitoring of numbers is essential throughout the process.

If we are not cautious and very careful, we can create a revolving door situation. That is not what we want. It will only delay, dangerously delay, our eventual return to normalcy – or at least to what will be our new normal.

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Animals in the City
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 31, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Reports from around the world identify a natural yet startling and bizarre phenomenon directly resulting from COVID-19.

Animals are taking back the cities they were banished from when cities were built!

I have seen videos and still pictures of ibex walking down the streets of Eilat, Israel’s southerner most city, nestled between the Red Sea and the Arava Desert on the north and beautiful mountains to the east and west.

Malabar, an endangered animal that was thought extinct until seen again for the first time in 1990, is photographed walking down a street in India. A cobra jumps out of a moped’s steering wheel looking dangerously venomous.

Dolphins are swimming in places they have not been seen in centuries. 3,000 pound bison are pictured wandering around cities, many in the middle of the street just looking for food.

With humans and cars no longer creating a natural fence, wildlife is retaking their land.

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PA Spreads Blood Libel
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 30, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


For decades Palestinian leadership has blamed Israel for their dismal conditions. They have consistently accused Israel of Blood Libel – deliberately poisoning and murdering innocent Palestinians.

COVID-19 is just another excuse and another example of the Palestinian conspiracy theory that Israel is murdering Palestinians.

On Sunday Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shatayeh was the latest to add his voice to the conspiracy.

Shatayeh, who has a history of perpetuating this canard, said that Israeli soldiers are spreading the virus by putting it on car door handles of Palestinian cars. He said: "We were exposed to testimonies that some of the (Israeli) soldiers are trying to spread the virus on car handles."

He also said that Israel will be held accountable for their racist actions: "This is racism and hatred of people who long for the death of the other. We will record this in the list of crimes.” Shatayeh demanded that Israel pay 90,000 Palestinian workers for their missed work.

In the past Shatayeh has accused Israel of "waging war on the Palestinian narrative" and attempting to "Judaize the history of the Holy Land."

Thus far coronavirus numbers among the Palestinians, in Gaza and the West Bank combined, are at 100 cases and 2 deaths. Relatively speaking, those are low numbers for this deadly virus. Had Palestinians been exposed the way their prime minister claims, the numbers would have skyrocketed.

They will never admit it, but the best thing that happened for Palestinians was that Israel shuttered the crossings between Israel and Palestinian areas preventing Palestinians from being infected.

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Parrot Says "It's Corona!"
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Luca is a 22 month old parrot who lives in Kiryat Shmona in the very northernmost part of Israel, bordering Lebanon.

This parrot has become a celebrity in Israel.

Like all other Israelis, her owner, Zahava Shabbat, has been sheltered in her apartment since the arrival of COVID-19 in Israel. Zahava took advantage of the time and taught Luca to say “It’s Corona! Stay Inside.”

Little children have found this to be particularly fun and helpful. Reuters News Service picked up the story. In searching I found the video published on news websites as far away as Malaysia.

Luca is one example of so many ways in which people, around the world, hunkered down at home, find positive ways to occupy their time. It’s a nice alternative to playing video games, binge watching and noshing on snacks.

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Big Brother is Watching - Corona
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 24, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Hundreds of Israelis were startled Wednesday by an unsolicited text message.

"Hello. According to an epidemiological investigation ______ (fill in your name). You were near someone sick with the coronavirus. You must immediately isolate at home [14 days] to protect your relatives and the public. ... This information will be used only for this purpose and will be erased when no longer needed. Sincerely, Public Health Services."

Tens of thousands of Israelis are in self isolation, many because they received this message, as they confront coronavirus.

With this text message, Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed the envelope on violating personal liberties and freedom. He instructed Israel’s Internal Security Services, aka the Shin Bet, to use their highly advanced and sophisticated tools to help bring the virus under control.

These are the tools that are normally used to protect against terror. Now they are being used to fight a virus that has the potential to kill many more people than would be killed through acts of terror.

Cell phones identify the locations of people and are cross referenced with the locations of people who tested positive for the virus.

It’s a Big Brother tactic – but it is a tactic that will save lives.

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Getting Worse
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The US Surgeon General warned this morning that this is going to be a very difficult week. The reason is obvious - the number of Americans infected with COVID-19 is going to increase.

The Surgeon General knows what we all know, but he knows to take it seriously. He knows and, more importantly, he accepts what many of us have not been able to fully accept.

Many people than we know have contracted the virus. We do not know who they are for several reasons. Some have not been tested. Some do not show symptoms. Some have symptoms that are mild. All of these people can possibly transmit the virus to the people around them – and those people will get sick.

One doctor from New York sent a plea to President Trump laying out the details of the community he treats and suggesting an early treatment and even a prophylactic treatment.

He said that he has treated hundreds of people with the virus. Based on his practice, this physician estimates that 60% of his community has the virus. That alone equals 20,000 people.

Truly frightening.

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Punishment for VIolators
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

This is current Israeli policy:

If you violate self-quarantine you will be arrested, spend six months in prison and fined 5,000 NIS, which is about $1,800.

There are exceptions:
You are permitted to go shopping for food, to an essential job, help someone in need.

There are rules:

Only 2 people are permitted in a car, prayers are permitted but only with a maximum of 10, sports are only permitted 2 players only. You are permitted to go outside and stand very close to your home.

This is a very stern set of laws and a major limit on citizens’ rights and freedoms. But Israeli leadership has to clamp down in order to stop the spread of the virus. People especially older people, will die if they contract the virus.

Many people still do not understand that they are required to sublimate their personal, selfish, needs for the greater good by staying inside.
Selfishness is blind in another way, too:

By venturing outside, that very person pursuing their selfish acts may contract the virus endangering themselves and endangering their family.

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ISrael & Corona
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

As of 11am, which is 5pm just before Shabbat began in Israel, these are the most recent numbers of Coronavirus cases in Israel.

The numbers need to be divided into categories:
Most important is that as of Wednesday there are twenty testing labs, that’s eighteen more than Israel had until now.

Also since Wednesday, the Mossad successfully procured thousands of tests kits.
705 people have tested positive.

10 are in serious condition, 18 moderate condition, 271 light condition and in hospitals. 149 people are being treated at home, 58 in hotels transformed into Coronavirus facilities. 212 are awaiting decisions as to they should be treated.
15 people have been released from the hospital and are free of the virus and totally recovered – that’s an important figure.

Israel has been extremely aggressive in their approach. They are using GPS tracking on the phones of people who tested positive. They are fining and even arresting those who violate their restrictions.

The Coronavirus numbers in Israel are going up and up. The new labs and the availability of the testing kits will automatically increase the numbers. Many, many people have the virus and are asymptomatic.

The higher numbers should not serve as a source of alarm and panic. They are a more realistic assessment of reality.

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Iran is Suffering from the Virus
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 17, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is suffering from Coronavirus. That much we know.

We also know that the Iranians do not report the truth.

For two days in a row they have been reporting over 100 deaths each day.
There were113 deaths on Sunday and 129 on Monday. Total Coronavirus deaths in Iran, so far, is 853.

On Monday the Iranians said that new infections for the day hit 1,053 putting total infections in Iran at 14, 991.

There is no doubt that the numbers in Iran are far higher. How much greater is a serious unknown.

The one good thing is that Iran has been isolated for some time now, so few people have been in and out of the country. There is one major exception to that – and it is China. That does not bode for either of those nations, both of them centers of the virus.

If China has topped out and is now having fewer and fewer infections – which is the way it appears to be - it is because they closed down a city of 23 million people. That move localized the contamination to one region.
It was a good move by China.

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Israeli Poilce Arrest Violators of the Isolation
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I watched two videos on twitter that shocked me.

In both clips Israeli police were arresting people who broke their Covid-19 isolation. In one clip, all the police were in total hazmat garb.

It was right out of a spy movie.

Several days ago Israel announced that it was using tracking software on the cell phones of people required to be in quarantine to insure that they were not violating the procedures.

Isolation is not a suggestion - it is a requirement.

In both cases on the videos the violators were arrested and put into isolation.
They will have hearings and a judge will determine whether more punishment is needed.

Quarantine and isolation are in place not for the safety of the entire community. Coming out of isolation early could endanger thousands of other people.
Sometimes we need to put our personal needs on the side for the good of the larger community especially because people’s lives are at stake.

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Nothing But the Virus
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Television, radio, newspapers, internet, social media - almost all news is news about Covid-19, aka, Corornavirus. It’s blanket coverage relating to everything – sports, medicine, art, entertainment, business and of course, hard news.

Broadway shows are dark. Disney, the happiest place on earth is closed for the rest of March. March Madness is shut down.

There are important lessons to be learned. Most importantly is that epidemics are real. Epidemics, and certainly pandemics, do not follow a set prescription. Economic lines are crossed, international boundaries are ignored, race and religion play no role.

The risks are great.

This is not rocket science. We, the public, must follow the advice we are given and the guidelines that are set out. We can’t outsmart this virus. But we can do our best to limit its destructive power and the havoc it plays with our lives and with our health.

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Minority Gov in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 10, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, there is talk about the possibility of a minority government in Israel.

I have been discussing this for months, so I say, it’s about time!
Let me explain.

A minority government is not a very stable government, but neither is a government with a majority of 61. Either way, the government can fall at any time. The principle of a minority government is that the ruling coalition has less than the 61 majority – but it comes with the promise of other members of Knesset that they will not vote against the coalition in the case of a vote of ‘no confidence’.

The life expectancy of such a government is short, but at least it can begin to function.

At this point, both large parties have the ability to create a minority government.

To do so, the Blue/White coalition will depend on 15 members of the Joint Arab list. Several members of that list reject Israel’s right to exist so they are not dependable. Two members of the Blue/White party are against an agreement with the Joint Arab List. They may bolt bringing the Blue/White number to 60.
And if they bolt, that also brings the Likud coalition to 60.

Not enough to fell a government, but enough to swear in a government.

Minority governments have successfully existed in the past in Israel. But they had a purpose. In European parliaments they have also been successful - in the short run. Again, with a purpose.

If the two Blue/White members leave, they will have to create their own, new party. They cannot switch parties – if they do they will not be able to run in the next election cycle.

If nobody switches, or if no agreement for a minority government is reached, Israel is in for a fourth election.

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Coronavirus & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is responding to Coronavirus very aggressively. 150,000 people are in isolation - most in self isolation. Many borders with neighboring countries, specifically Egypt, are closed. Flights from many other countries, in Europe and Asia, are not permitted in.

Now they are seriously considering isolating every single person who arrives in Israel from any destination - Israelis, tourists and business people.

All this may backfire. The virus has already arrived. As of late Sunday 39 Israelis have tested positive. That is more than most other counties in the world. Actually, Israel ranks 33 in the world out of 196 countries with numbers of people with coronavirus.

Israel’s response probably has a political side to it.

Netanyahu needs to be seen as a capable leader handling - and or protecting - his country from a huge danger. No one else can do this. But the more leadership responds and comments, the bigger the crisis becomes. And by extension, the better a leader Netanyahu becomes.

On all levels, Netanyahu can do things and make decisions that his counterpart, Benny Gantz, cannot do, especially because his counterpart is embracing the Joint Arab List which is anti-Zionist and some membrane even preach the destruction of Israel.

If the virus spins out of control Netanyahu's plan could backfire. It could also backfire if Gantz can show that Netanyahu is causing more damage than good.

The tourism industry, a major source of revenue in Israel, had ground to a halt.
The virus is not just a medical headache. It’s tendrils reach all segments of society and government.

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Saudi Internal Tensions
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The youngest brother of the Saudi king was arrested by his nephew over the weekend in Saudi Arabia.

He was not the only person arrested - several other members of the royal family were also arrested including a nephew of the king.

Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince, is the son of the King. Since 2017 he has been the de-facto total leader of the kingdom. And since 2017 the Crown Prince has periodically arrested high ranking members of the royal family in an attempt to consolidate power and eliminate challenges to authority.

He has also been clamping down on corruption and kickbacks. It is a system rife with kickbacks - the family controls everything. Corruption is an easy tool to apply against political rivals.
We will watch and see

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Pundit Wrong about Israel's Elections
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

There are several essential takeaways from Israel’s election.

#1: Rather than exhibiting voter fatigue during their third election in the course of one year, Israeli were energized with more people voting in this election than in any election since 1999.

#2: Predictions about Netanyahu being punished by voters and about voters being unable to overlook the legal issues he is entangled with, proved false.

#3: Labor and Gesher have truly imploaded, Israel’s founding political party is now barely breathing.

#4: The Joint Arab List leached voters from Labor and are now the real left in Israeli politics, steadily increasing with each election and has become, as they are about to receive 14 or 15 Parliamentary seats, the third largest political party in Israel.

#5: Israelis have long believed that, because there are 120 seats in the Knesset, 61 was the magic number for coalition building, yet governments have been built and functioned with as small a coalition as 53 seats. A coalition of 61, or even of 59, is very difficult to keep together and is not a stable government, it works for a short time, but Israeli governments do not last.

Not a single Israeli government has ever survived its entire term.

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Super Tuesday
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

With Super Tuesday behind us, it seems clear that there are two leading candidates within the Democratic party.

Elizabeth Warren will most certainly drop out.

Michael Bloomberg, just pulled out despite his desire to stay in the game and walk into the Democratic Convention with over 100 - maybe even 200 delegates - out of the 1991 delegates needed to nominate the candidate who will lead the Democratic ticket against President Donal Trump.

A week ago it was unthinkable that Joe Biden would be a competitor, let alone a leader, for that nomination. A week ago it appeared as if Bernie Sanders was the presumptive candidate and nothing could stop him.

But the exits of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar and the throwing of their support behind Biden served to unify the party and bring it back to its home.

Biden embodies the traditional, old time, Democratic party. Sanders is not a Democrat. He is an independent and describes himself as a Social Democrat.

The people will decide.

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Tourism in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Azerbaijan has shut its borders to Iran. No Iranians or Iranian products can cross the border and no one from Azerbaijan may enter Iran – all because of coronavirus.

The tourism industry in Iran has already been decimated by US sanctions and now, because of this virus, Iranians are taking another economic hit.

This is the season of the Iranian New Year, called Nowruz. The Nowruz Holiday stretches over a two-week period.

Reports are that 80% of hotel reservations in Iran have been cancelled. One media report said that in the northern holy city of Mashad 90% of the hotels have no guests. No one is visiting the city.

These are devastating numbers.

Iran will not be having a happy New Year.

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Drones
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is a leader in drone and anti-drone production and defense. There are many Israeli companies in this segment of the market.

One company, Bluebird, just concluded a deal to provide 150 drones to a certain unnamed European country. Elbit, a much larger company in this niche, has sold over 1000 drones to an Asian country.

Israel needed to develop a defense system against drones coming from Gaza and Lebanon. And they have. They developed drones that can carry weapons and cameras. Some are tiny and some are huge.

Israel has also developed an anti-drone weapon that shoots drones down with lasers. The laser dissipates after several hundred meters so it will not damage anything beyond the target.

Before this new technology was developed the best way to strike a drone was with another drone.

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A/S in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 27, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

A new study about Europe’s attitudes concerning Jews and Israel has just been released. Be prepared, your worst nightmares are about to be confirmed.

The study was conducted in sixteen European countries. One thousand representative samples were culled with a degree of error from each country of only 0.8%.

Here’s what they found:

20% of Europe believes that Jews control the world.

20% believe that Jews exploit the Holocuast for their own interests.

25% of respondents said that Israel’s policies explain why people hate Israel.

25% disagree with the statement that Israel is acting in its own defense.

33% agreed with the statement that during World War II people from their country suffered as much as the Jews.

The numbers are baffling. But they must be believed. Given the representative sampling in this study, those surveyed accurately reflect the attitudes of their nation.

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Confilct w/in Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 26, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has announced that they have completed their attack against Israel. That’s not an easy thing for Hamas to say.

Hamas is stuck between the proverbial rock and the hard place. They are stuck between two very different points of view and approaches.

On the one hand, Hamas defines itself as being about defense and fighting Israel. Hamas’ message has always been that they are non-stop fighters against Israel.

On the other hand, Hamas governs Gaza and they need to maintain calm. Calm is defined by a society that can function. Hamas knows that as a government, they cannot tolerate ongoing regular targeting by the Israeli air-force.

That means that a cease fire and quiet becomes an essential objective. Even though a cease fire and quiet with Israel is in direct conflict with Hamas’ role as fighters and defenders of Gaza.

Hamas needs to embrace the ceasefire. They might just do it. Their self-preservation is at stake.

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Rabbi in Saudi Royal Palace
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 25, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Times are changing. I've said it before and I know I'll be saying it again - and again.

An Israeli rabbi was invited, as part of a group of interfaith leaders, to meet the King of Saudi Arabia in his palace.

Rabbi David Rosen spent 2 1/2 days in Saudi Arabia.

The group is called the King Abdullah International Center for Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue. Rabbi Rosen is a member of the board.

Quoted in the Times of Israel, Rabbi Rosen said: “would not have contemplated inviting us, and primarily me as a rabbi. This would have been too much for them”. He went on to explain that, in this sense, the reception at the royal palace was a “revolutionary moment.”

Rosen, is American Jewish Committee’s director of interreligious affairs, was one of nine KAICIID board members who attended the meeting with King Salman, and the only interfaith leader representing Judaism. The other eight attendees represented Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism and Islam.

According to the official statement of the organization: “The Custodian of the
Two Holy Mosques welcomed the board members, who were holding their first meeting in Riyadh, and stressed the importance of KAICIID’s role in consolidating the principles of dialogue and coexistence among different religions and cultures, promoting the values of moderation and tolerance, and combating all forms of extremism and terrorism.”

Other rabbis have visited Saudi Arabia, most notably Rabbi Marc Schneier, who met with the foreign minister earlier in February.

This is real change and real progress. But remember, these changes must be taken step by step, the process must go slowly.

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Iran's Elections & Caronavirus
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 24, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


Iran just conducted their national elections. The result proved to be and it was a dismal failure for the leadership.

42% voter turnout. This was the lowest turnout in history - lowest since the 1979 Revolution.

"The turnout across the country was 42.57 percent," Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli told a televised news conference on Sunday. "In [the capital] Tehran, it was around 25 percent. Across Iran, over 24 million people voted.

Only 25% turnout in Teheran. And not for lack of trying. The president had urged people to vote. The Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah, pronounced that it was a religious obligation to vote.

National elections happen every four years in Iran. In 2012 there was a 66% turnout. In 2016 a 62%. This is the first dip below 50% - significantly below 50% and 20% off the last election.

The election was a referendum on the government. People are expressing their displeasure with the religious leadership. 1000’s of candidates were disqualified by religious leadership including 84 sitting members of parliament.

The government and the Grand Ayatollah have a different reason, however, for the lackluster turnout. Coronavirus.

Iranian leadership is claiming that enemies of Iran and enemies of Islam spread terrible rumors of the virus.

In truth, until now, 50 Iranians have died from the virus. That is more than any other country outside of China.

Yes, there is a fear in being in crowded places like polling stations. But that’s not why voters didn’t out.

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Tensions in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 23, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are high. A potential escalation is obvious.

I'm talking about Gaza and the Israeli towns and farms situated near the Gaza border.

Over the past 48 hours over 400 rockets have been shot from Gaza toward Israel. And Hamas in Gaza has said that if Israel targets any of its leaders they will unleash their new advanced rockets. These rockets, they said, have fire power that can and will target Tel Aviv and threaten the economic foundation of Israel.

The situation was covered by the Hebrew press in Israel. It quoted Hamas leaders from the Hezbollah paper Al Akhbar which is published in Lebanon. It also quoted London based Al Jadida which wrote that Egypt’s head of security visited Gaza to try to tamp down tensions. He was probably the person who leaked information to the Arabic press.

Hamas governs Gaza. They ousted the Palestinian Authority in a bloody murderous coup in 2007.

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Bahrain Punishes Man For Burning Israel FLag
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 20, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

A Bahrain appeals court refused to allow the appeal of a Bahraini who was convicted of burning an Israeli flag at a protest in defense of Palestinians in May.

The Supreme Court of Appeals did not even entertain reducing the three year sentence of the leader of the group of about ten people who were part of an illegal demonstration.

There has been some backlash on social media against the decision. These critics claim that the Bahrain court of appeal’s decision was based on cozying up to Israel.

Relations have, indeed, warmed between Israel and the Gulf States, including Bahrain.

So much so, that the Chief Sefardi Rabbi of Israel visited Bahrain in December. And there are public photos of the ministers of foreign affairs from both Bahrain and Israel together in Washington DC at the State Department.

The world - including the Middle East - is changing. And not everybody is happy about that.

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Ballots for the Quarantined
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 18, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

On March 2nd Israel will have their third national election. That's less than two weeks away.

The election is facing some unexpected complications.

One such complication is the Coronavirus. So, how does the Coronavirus impact the Israeli election? Israelis love to travel. And now, because of the virus, all travelers on flights coming from China, Thailand and other Far East countries must be quarantined for 14 days.

That means that those Israeli citizens would not be allowed out of quarantine in time to vote on March 2nd.

To solve this issue the government has decided to deliver Israel’s famous blue ballot boxes to the quarantine centers. This way everyone who wants to vote, can vote.

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Historic Flight
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 17, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


Earlier this week an Israeli commercial airliner flew over Sudan en route to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport. This was historic. Never before had an Israeli commercial aircraft crossed into Sudanese airspace.

It was all the result of a face-to-face meeting, earlier in February, between the leader of Sudan Abed al-Fattah al-Burhan and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The meeting took place in Uganda.

The historic flight took off from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city, Kinshasa.

This is another example of change happening in the Middle East. Another example of Israel’s integration into daily activities and operations in the Middle East.

It is hard to conceive of the significance of this simple flight. Fundamentally, it means that Israel is no longer at war with Sudan. It means that Israel need not fear that Sudan will down an Israeli aircraft crossing through their territory.

This is a transformative moment in the history of the Middle East.

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Syria Shoots at Airline Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 14, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Syrian anti-air batteries shot and missed a civilian Airbus A320 with 170 people on board. The plane was fired upon while making its final approach into Damascus when it was targeted.

This flight, which shuttles between Najif, Iraq and Damascus, made an emergency landing at a Russian airbase in Syria.

Just last month, in mid-January, a civilian airliner was on its way to Canada and was also shot upon by the Syrian air defense system.

There are several issues at play here. One glaring issue is that the Syrians are aiming at - and missing, huge lumbering airliners after shooting at them multiple times. Another major issue is that the Syrian Air Force cannot differentiate between a civilian Airbus and a military F-15.

That is ineptitude at its best.

The Russians are blaming Israel for Syria’s actions, just as they did in September of 2018, when Syrian anti-air batteries shot and hit a Russian plane. That time, they did not miss and Syria’s error resulted in the killing of all fifteen people on board.

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Voter Fatigue in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 13, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Voter fatigue in Israel has set in.

On March 2nd Israel will have its third national election within twelve months.
And despite its importance, voter fatigue means people will not come out to vote.

When fatigue sets in, the political right is most often the winner.

Why is political fatigue better for the right than for the left? Because traditionally, rightists are a more passionate group than leftists.

That passion forces people on the right to vote - despite their fatigue.

In a few days we will know if that general rule holds true for Israelis.

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Irans Marks 41 Years of Revolution
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 12, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The anniversary went almost unnoticed in the United States because it was not covered in the press. But it was a date to remember.

Tuesday February 11th was the 41st anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.

The Iranians remembered.

Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in Teheran’s central Azadi Square to mark the day. Most of the speeches and most of the shouting and chanting called for condemnation of the United States and tirades against Israel.

Iranian citizens are restless and troubled. There is an upcoming election in Iran and thousands of candidates have already been disqualified by the Supreme Leader. Included in that group are ninety current members of parliament.

The awful reality for Iranians is that US led sanctions against Iran has taken a very serious toll on the people. It can be seen across the country.

41 years ago Iran overthrew the Shah and created an Islamic country that has been impacting the Muslim world ever since. I would argue that most of that impact has been negative - but it was their desired goal. Iranian Leadership wants to influence the Muslim world and guide that world in their direction. They want to be the head of the non-Western world.

Had the Nuke Deal continued and had the sanctions not kicked in, that would most probably have been the reality today.

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Al Jazeera Host Says Israel is Great
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 11, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

An Al Jazeera host named Faisal al Qassem, host of a program called The Opposite Direction, tweeted that Israel is the most successful project of the past two centuries.

This is what he wrote: “For most Arabs, if they want to curse you, they will describe you as a ‘Zionist,’ even though they know that the most successful project in the current and last century is the Zionist project”.

There was, as expected, blow back on twitter. So Qassem decided to ask his 5.5 million followers what they thought.

About 6,000 responses came in and well over 80% of them agreed that Israel was more modern, more democratic and more technological than Arab countries.

Qassem also hosted the IDF Arabic spokesman on his show via skype. And of course, there were people who condemned him. Qassem’s response was that people just do not understand history.

He said that in Arabic calling someone a Zionist is considered a curse while it should be considered a compliment because Israel has achieved what every Arab state merely promised.

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Iran Fails 4x to Launch Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


After four attempts in a row Iran has failed, yet again, to successfully get their satellite into orbit.

The Zafar, which means victory in Farsi, was launched. But the rocket on which it piggy backed did not reach a fast enough speed or the altitude necessary to keep the satellite in orbit.

Iran has been launching satellites into orbit since 2009 and many of them have been successful. Most of them have been spy and communications satellites. The Iranians would also contract with the Russians and use their rockets.

Recently, however, the Iranians have wanted to do it on their own. This requires more than knowledge - it requires better technology. Most of the hardware must be imported and, given the sanctions and restrictions placed on Iran, that is not an easy task.

Almost every element connected to a successful satellite launch can and will be utilized in a ballistic (conventional and non conventional) strike. That’s knowledge that is important for us to have.

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PA Boycotts Israeli Produce
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has issued a ban on importing fruits and vegetables and carbonated drinks, mineral water and juices from Israel.

This is a very bad idea.

The PA is responding to a decision by Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett to boycott certain PA produce. But Bennett was responding to the PA boycotting Israei livestock. It’s a vicious cycle of boycotts.

The problem for Palestinians is that the Palestinians need Israel much more than Israel needs them. The PA economy is dependent on Israel. Israel imports $55 million in fruits and vegetables per year from the Palestinians. The Palestinians import $300 million from Israel.

The Palestinians could never produce and provide that amount. Besides that is not what and how your economy should work. Buy what you can't produce - that is the principle. Don't waste money on things that can be made much better and more cheaply elsewhere.

Palestinians purchase over $100 million in bottled water from Israel alone.
This was a very bad decision.

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Who's on Which Side
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 5, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

When analyzing foreign affairs you can tell much about a situation by looking at who supports and who rejects policies and initiatives.

Sometimes, even without knowing all the details, you can get a good sense of a situation based on who is on whose side.

Much like the adage our parents often used about tell a person by their friends.

The Deal of the Century has gotten some very interesting supporters and some very typical detractors.

Arab leaders of the Gulf states are supporters of the deal. Iran rejects the deal.

The Supreme Leaders of Iran has dedicated several speeches to how the deal “is no real deal at all.” He has said that “Palestine is for the Palestinians.”

These are not significant critiques. However, there has been a very significant statement echoed in all of his addresses. The Supreme Leader of Iran has issued a call for “mass resistance”.

Mass resistance is a euphemism for Intifada.

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Israel Moves to Normal Relations w Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 4, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has embarked on a diplomatic tour. He is meeting with the Muslim leaders of Uganda and Sudan. The most significant Muslim leader on Netanyahu’s roster is Abdel Fattah al Burhan of Sudan.

This is a dramatic move.

Netanyahu’s tour is the continuation of the momentum that Israel has been developing over the past few years. It is also extremely troubling - at least for the Palestinians and especially in the aftermath of the Trump plan.

Just as Natanyahu is on a tour of Muslim countries, President Mahmoud Abbas is on a tour. His mission is to garner support for Palestinian opposition to the plan.

Netanyahu’s success does not please the Palestinians.

PLO Secretary General Saeb Erakat articulated just how damaging the meeting between the Sudanese leader and Netanyahu was to the Paelstinians. He said the Monday meeting between Netanyahu and Sudan's leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is a knife in the back of the Palestinian people.

That was a very powerful statement from a very articulate spokesperson for the Palestinians.

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Abbas Threatens Intifada
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Abbas literally told Israel that they will have to live with the consequences of Trump’s Deal of the Century. The statement by Abbas was his way of giving a blessing to Palestinians to start a new Intifada.

They were fighting words.

Abbas departed Ramallah and went to Cairo to meet with the Arab League. From Cairo Abbas will visit much of the Middle East and then parts of Europe. He has an agenda.

The Palestinian president is drumming up support for his rejection of the Trump deal.

The only real tools that the Palestinians have are violence and the threat of violence. But calling for an Intifada and having one actually emerge are two different things. This is not the first time Abbas has called for an Intifada.

The threat of violence and terror is a serious one.

The problem with these threats of violence and of an actual Intifada is the youth. Youth need to be activated. They need to take to the streets. But at this stage it is very unlikely that West Bank youth will come swarming out to the streets.

The reason is simple - they are not very excitable. Like youth the world over, simulated electronic war games are more intriguing than the real thing. Safer, too.

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Abbas Rejects Deal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League met on Sunday in an emergency meeting in Cairo.
The purpose was to show support for the Palestinians and for PA President Mahmoud Abbas as he presented his rejection of US President Trump's Deal of the Century.

Abbas repeated the message he delivered before. He would not accept any message from Trump, not by phone and not by letter. He did not want Donald Trump to say that the Palestinian president was consulted on the plan.

In addition, Abbas cut all ties with Israel and the United States. Diplomatic ties had already been severed. This time he severed security interaction. Until now both the CIA and Israel have had very close security links with Palestinian security. Those links have now been cut.

I am willing, however, to speculate that those contacts will resume - very quietly resume next week because it is an essential need on all three sides. They all need to share information to stay safe. And the PA needs it more than the United States and Israel.

Abbas is thinking about his legacy. He has repeated time and again this past week, before and after the unveiling of The Deal, that he will to be remembered as the person who betrayed Jerusalem.

The other issue he discussed was demilitarization. Abbas said it is simply unacceptable.

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Israel Strikes Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 31, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's air-force struck six targets in Gaza. They were all military sites. Many were lookout and observation posts.

Since The Deal of the Century was announced Hamas has increased its launching of rockets and balloons against Israel.
Hamas' objective is to show their anger at the deal.

Many of the Hamas launched rockets were intercepted or fell in remote locations. One rocket did, however, land and a child and mother were hospitalized for trauma.

That is really the objective of Hamas: Inflict as much terror and trauma as possible.

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Locust Plague in MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 28, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Over a billion locust are devouring 200 tons of food everyday as they make their way through Africa and the Middle East.

The locust swarm is so dense that it looks black. It is impossible to see outside and it is impossible to walk outside. It is the largest swarm in 25 years.

A locust plague will destroy crops and trees and almost every herb and tree, everything green.

This locust swarm can travel 4,000 miles in 10 days. Locust can fly 200 miles without setting down to rest and eat.

Using the word plague is deliberate.

Locust destruction is Biblical.

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Russian US Tensions in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 27, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

There is increased tension on the ground in Syria between the United States and Russia.

US troops are in Syria to secure the oil fields and keep them safe from ISIS and other terrorist groups.

And now - four times in eight days the United States has intercepted and blocked a Russian convoy going into the oil region.

On Sunday, when the US stopped them, the Russians turned back. Then the Russians sent a helicopter. In response to the Russian helicopter the United States dispatched two helicopters - and they brought the Russian chopper down.

These tensions are fierce. They could easily escalate, at any moment, into a full-blown attack if any step is exaggerated or mistaken.

These events are not covered in the Western press. That’s a mistake. We need to monitor this situation very closely.

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Perception of the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 25, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The Trump Peace Plan, labeled the Deal of the Century, is back in the news.
The Israelis have been invited to Washington, DC to hear the plan.

The Palestinians have not received an invitation.

Since December of 2017 the Palestinians have been officially boycotting the United States. The last high level discussion between the US and Palestinians took place under the presidency of President Obama. Those talks were conducted with John Kerry, Obama's secretary of state.

To get a good sense of the status of the Palestinians in world diplomatic affairs it is helpful to look at who visits Ramallah and where Palestinian President Abbas goes to visit.

This week 46 world leaders came to Jerusalem to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. There were kings, prime ministers and presidents. Only five leaders went to Ramallah to visit Palestinian President Abbas.

They were: Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, Australian Governor-General David Hurley and Britain's Prince Charles.
By my count, they are the only world leaders who took the time to make the twenty minute drive from Jerusalem to Ramallah.

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Putin Changing History
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 23, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Rule # 1: Whoever owns the history, possess the power.
That is why history is so often in dispute, why it is so often fought over. And that explains why people, especially those with leadership roles, create history.

Rule # 2: At all costs, avoid the role of perpetrator.
That is why history is so often re-written, often by perpetrators. It is better to be a victim than a perpetrator. It is better to be a bystander than a perpetrator.
This week commemorates the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz - Birkenau.

And with that we must remember these rules as we listen to leaders who are trying to transform themselves into victims or bystanders. When in reality they were mostly bystanders and perpetrators.

It is easier to explain to your children and grandchildren that you were a victim than explain that you participated in the evil murderous policies of the Nazis. It is easier to say that you were simply silent.

We are seeing a revision of history by certain leaders as they distant themselves from the Nazis. Most blatantly is President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Putin is continuing a historical rewrite that has been part of the Russian narrative since the end of WWII.

They assert that they were victims. Victims of the Nazis. At the Auschwitz Memorial in Jerusalem, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that 40% of the Jewish victims of the Nazis were Soviets. There is no doubt that between 26 and 50 million Soviets were killed in the War - many froze or starved to death. But Putin's statistic does not hold.

The Holocaust happened under the veil of WWII. It was a policy of the Nazis. One cannot conflate the two. The purpose of the Nazi Holocaust was to murder all the Jews first of Europe and then, all the Jews in the world.

Russia is deliberating forgetting important parts of history. They were not victims. They had an alliance with the Nazis. On August 23, 1939 Russia and Germany signed a treaty called the Molotov - Ribbentrop Pact named after the foreign ministers of both countries, Joachim von Ribbentrop and Vyacheslav Molotov.

They agreed to simultaneously invade Poland from opposite sides. Germany invaded on September 1st and Russia on September 17th.

For decades, first as Soviets and now as Russians, they have conveniently forgotten this essential fact. Russiaian leadership has chosen, instead, to emphasize Operation Barbarosa when, on Sunday June 22,194,1 Germany invaded the Soviet Union.

I will never forget the first time I heard this. I was in the then USSR and a tour guide explained that the Soviets entered WWII in June of 1941. I tried to correct her. She did not believe me. She thought it was I who was creating history.

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India Drops Oil Imports From MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 22, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

I've Ben Thinking:

India is the third largest consumer of oil in the world.
India needs oil. They realize they need oil and they have been implementing a plan to insure that they continue to receive a regular stream of imported oil.

For three years in a row India has reduced the amount of oil they import from the Middle East. To give you a sense of the numbers, in 2018 they imported 65% of their oil from the Middle East while last year, in 2019, that number dropped to 60%.

India understands the need to reduce their dependence on Middle East oil. The political situation is too volatile. Iran has made the region unpredictable. And so India and other countries are responding.

During the same period that India has been cutting back on their Middle East oil imports, the United States has become energy sufficient. The US is now producing enough oil that there is no need to import oil. The US still does import, but they are now significant exporters as well.

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46 Leaders Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 21, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Forty-six presidents, kings and prime ministers will visit Israel this week.
That number is truly impressive.

The United States is being represented by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The last time so many leaders converged in Israel was in 2017 and the occasion was the funeral of Shimon Peres who served the country as both prime minister and president.

Actually, fewer high level dignitaries came for the Peres funeral than are coming this week.

Israel is marking the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp. The official ceremony will take place on Thursday at Yad Vashem, the national Holocaust memorial and educational center in Jerusalem.
The central theme of this memorial event will be confronting anti-Semitism.

No other country in the world could successfully invite that many leaders to attend a memorial and receive so many positive responses. It shows how important and well respected Israel is and it shows how important the fight against anti-Semitism is.

Again, truly impressive.

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Jordan Says No to Israeli Gas
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 20, 2020

I've Been Thinking:


Media in the Middle East has been covering details of the new gas deals developed between Jordan and Israel and between Egypt and Israel.

According to the deals, Israel will soon begin providing natural gas for both Jordan and Egypt.

Jordanian and Egyptian leadership are pleased with the arrangements - otherwise, they would never have signed on to the deals.

The Jordanian Parliament, however, just passed a bill forbidding the deal.

The bill is symbolic. The parliament has no real role in the decision making, all control rests in hands of the King. The King can, and in this case certainly will, disregard the parliament’s new bill.

But the move by the Jordanian Parliament should not be totally discounted. And that's because this parliament passed bill represents the masses in Jordan who do not want a deal with Israel.

The bill was passed on to the government for approval. According to the Speaker of the Parliament the bill "answers the calls of the people who refuse an agreement with Israel. Governments recognize Israel, but the peoples do not recognize Palestine's occupying entity."

And so it goes.

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Tunnel Tech on Border w Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 19, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF recently announced that they are installing their new seismic and acoustic anti-tunnel defenses on the northern border with Lebanon and Syria.
They devices are called tunnel buster sensors.

This is a very new cutting edge technology that can detect tunnels that are being built and tunnels that have already been dug.

This new technology marks the first effective weapon in history to defend against tunnel. Tunnel warfare has puzzled defense strategists for millennia.
As for the installation of the tunnel busters on Israel's northern border, the IDF says this is just a preventative measure.

They say that there is no immediate threat. However, one must note that Israel has already detected a number of tunnels dug deep into the rock.

So - while there may not be an immediate alert, there is an ongoing threat. And that ongoing threat is now being partially neutralized because Israel is taking the steps to install this new technology.

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2 Defections in 1 Week
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 16, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Another defection from Iran. That makes it number two just this week. Both are women.

Shohreh Bayat, 32 years old, is a chess hero famous all around the world - and especially in Iran. This week she was the referee of the Women's World Chess Championship.

During one of the matches there was a picture of Bayat refereeing and it appeared that she was not wearing her head scarf, her Hijab.

Iranian media picked up the picture and it went viral.

In response, Bayat said that she was in fact wearing her Hijab, but that it was not visible from that particular camera angle. None-the-less, she received death threats.

It is against the law in Iran not to wear the Hijab and all female competitors, even in active sports, are required to wear a Hijab.

Bayat is afraid. At best, she fears that she will be arrested if she returns to Iran. At worst, she fears for her life. There are many Iranian women in prison for violating the Hijab law.

No word yet on where Shohreh Bayat will go.

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Another Hero Defect from Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 13, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Another dramatic defection from Iran by a national hero.

Kimia Alizadeh is the only Iranian to have won a medal in the 2016 Olympics in Rio. Her sport is Taekwondo. And now she has defected.

In her Instagram post Alizadeh wrote that she defected of her own volition, that she was not tricked or wooed into defecting, that no country offered her asylum or refuge. It is a chilling message that highlights what is now happening in Iran.
She wrote: “No one has invited me to Europe and I haven’t been given a tempting offer. But I accept the pain and hardship of homesickness because I didn’t want to be part of hypocrisy, lies, injustice and flattery."

Alizadeh continues: “I am one of the millions of oppressed women in Iran whom they’ve been playing for years ... I wore whatever they told me and repeated whatever they ordered. Every sentence they ordered I repeated."

And there's more: “None of us matter for them, we are just tools.”

The young athlete is referring to herself and to her sports colleagues. She is indicating that the Iranian regime uses them as propaganda tools for both the outside world and inside Iran.

Alizadeh concludes her message on a sad and sorrowful note: “Should I start with hello, goodbye or condolences? Hello oppressed people of Iran, goodbye noble people of Iran, my condolences to you people who are always mourning."

Kimia Alizadeh is the second athlete to defect from Iran in the past few months. A male judo wrestler defected after he refused to throw a match to avoid the possibility of competing against an Israeli athlete.

Iranian citizens, young and old, are bringing about change in Iran. They are standing up and taking a stance.

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Iran Lies
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 12, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

At the Israeli cabinet meeting this Sunday morning Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made an opening statement just as he does every Sunday morning. In today's statement Bibi spoke about Iran. He explained that: "Iran lied; just as she lied about the nuclear deal, now she lies about the Ukrainian airliner."

We have all witnessed Iran's denials, and then witnessed the reversals and changes they make. This time, they came clean - well, nearly clean. This time the Iranians have acknowledged that, indeed, the Ukrainian airline was shot down by an Iranian missile fired by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Iran now asserts that the shooting was human error and unintentional.
That part of the confession is the highly unlikely part.

Anyone who knows anything about anti-aircraft systems knows all anti-aircraft systems can distinguish between every kind of aircraft if only by the pitch and speed of the plane's engine. An F-15's engine is nothing like the engine of a civilian 737 jetliner.

For Persian Muslims, just like for other Arabs in the Middle East, any Westerner is considered an outsider and a foreigner. They are all lumped into the same group and they are all infidels. A Ukrainian airliner could have as easily been a US airliner or an airliner from British Air. They are all the same - interlopers and invaders treading on Muslim land - and, most importantly, they do not belong.

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Putin is Not Worried
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 9, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Vladimir Putin is not disturbed by the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani. Neither does the Iranian rocket strike faze him.
How do we know this?

On Tuesday, Putin landed in Syria to meet with President Assad and visit Russian bases. He spoke to his soldiers and inspected his bases.

Then on Wednesday Putin travelled to Turkey. Actually, Putin’s trip to Turkey was planned long before the Syrian trip. The Syrian visit was an add-on to the Turkey trip.

Putin was not afraid and not worried about being in the region. He was not afraid for himself nor for the Russia mission. He was not expecting any surprise Iranian generated surprises or moves.

Maybe he knew in advance that Iran was not going to escalate – that they would modestly respond by sending missiles to hit Iraqi bases. If Iran and Russia are that close, in this instance it's good news. It means that with Putin's influence, tensions would be shorter live and reduced.

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Iran Warned Iraq of Airstrike
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 8, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Things are heating up in the Middle East.

It has been reported that Iran warned Iraq in advance of the airstrike which took place early Wednesday.

Iran was aware that they were striking Iraqi air bases - true, that was where US soldiers could be stationed, but nonetheless, they were still Iraqi bases.

France also has several thousand troops in Iraq. The French have made it clear that there is no plan to withdraw them.

For the Middle East Arab and Persian mind, there is no difference between France and the United States. They are both Westerners and foreigners on Arab soil.

So the French are certainly a target for Iranian revenge.


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Iran's Possible Response to Suleimani
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 7, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The US assassination of Iranian al Quds head, General Qassem Suleimani, continues to be big news. Politicians, talking heads, anyone who has an opinion on the subject is spouting off about why the assassination was right or wrong and if the situation will or will not cascade into an all out war.

Israel and Israelis are justifiably worried. They are a convenient target for Iran if only because Israel is the biggest symbol and the most effective unifying tool in the entire Middle East.

My best analysis says that if Iran chooses to respond, they will use their proxies to attack US interests in the region and not engage directly with either the United States or with Israel. This was actually the role of Suleimani. He was tasked with the planning and execution of missions outside Iran using their proxies to strike at enemies of Iranian interests. He bolstered and trained the very groups and people who will now be called on to strike.

A full scale frontal war between Iran and the US is very doubtful. A direct strike from Iran and even from Iranian soil into Israel or to US bases is also unlikely.
Iran's most likely response will be calculated strikes by Hezbollah and by pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq - all, of course, with the assistance of Iranian advisers and weapons. The most likely target being US bases in Iraq.

Israel will not be entirely forgotten. Israel will likely be on the receiving end of a barrage of rockets, maybe even drone attacks, from across their northern border - but not from Gaza. (Gaza is a powder keg that even Iran will not be able to control.) The important calculation vis a vis Iranian proxies is which action will make the biggest statement. But the action cannot be so larges as to tilt the momentum so that Israel or the United States respond with even greater force.

Israel's counter response to Iran's proxy response to the US assassination of Suleimani will be based on damage assessment. If missiles land in areas without significant damage but still big enough to make PR splash in the Arabic and Persian press, escalated tensions will recede and revert to normal tensions.

However, should there any real damage - especially to human life, Israel will be forced to respond by ratcheting up the tensions. The United States will probably use the same calculus in deciding on their counter response.

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Targeting Suleimani
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 3, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Targeting Iranian General Qassem Suleimani was a game changer in confronting world terror.

Morally and ethically this was a justified attack, not simply because of all that Suleimani perpetrated in the past but also because he was certainly planning more attacks and the murder of innocents.

General Suleimani was not the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as so many have reported. That distinction goes to Hossein Salami. Qassem
Suleimani was the commander of the al Quds Brigade. The Revolutionary Guard is an elite division of the Iranian army. The al Quds Brigade is the most elite group within the elite Guard.

Suleimani was responsible for ALL operations outside of Iran. His great strength was his strategic and tactical planning. He was responsible for literally hundreds of operations as well as Iranian activities in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza. General Qassem Suleimani cannot be easily replaced.

This is a sampling of his diabolical achievements: He armed Hezbollah and brought them to their current strength. He did the same with Islamic Jihad in Gaza. He bombed the Saudi oil fields. He planned every operation against Israeli and Jewish targets tied to Iran. He masterminded the most recent storming of the US embassy in Baghdad.

It was no coincidence that Suleimani was in Iraq when he was targeted.

Over the past decade there have been numerous, erroneous, reports of his death. In 2006 he walked away from a plane crash that killed almost everyone else on board. In 2012 a bombing in Damascus killed his aides as well as aides to Syrian President Assad. In 2015 his death was reported during a battle in Aleppo. Then he was said to be badly injured. All of them untrue.
Today, he is dead.

The United States and Israel have both been waiting for the perfect time to try again. This time the US succeeded-- almost certainly with a little help from Israel.

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Iran Responds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is responding to the United States.
The United States hit six Iranian targets in Iraq. Western media clumped them all into one attack, but they were six individual attacks.
Iran is responding with rhetoric.
And not the kind of rhetoric that most of the Western world would expect. The Iranian response is atypically calm, calculated and clear.
The more one learns about Iran, the more one realizes how skillfully they use the media how artfully they compose their responses. They responses are not emotional at all. It is all about strategy. It is akin to a long term game of chess.
Look at the response of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Hossein Salami. This response is quoted by Tasnim, an official media outlet in Iran. It was picked up across the international world and was read by everyone monitoring the situation.
“We are not leading the country to war, but we are not afraid of any war and we tell America to speak correctly with the Iranian nation. We have the power to break them several times over and are not worried.”
In addition Iran’s Army Chief of Staff Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi also quoted in Iranian official radio announced on Thursday that Iranian forces were ready to confront the “enemy”.
“Our armed forces ... monitor all moves, and if anyone makes the slightest mistake, they will decisively react, and if the situation heats up, we will show our abilities to the enemy."

As if that was not enough, on Wednesday Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the U.S. attacks on Iranian-allied militias in Iraq, blaming the United States for violence in Iran’s neighbor Iraq.

Iran is dialing down the tensions just as the United States is dialing them up.

There is a possibility of all out war - but more likely is a scenario in which the next few weeks will be tense. We will witness a series of tit for tat, of actions and reactions.

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Israel Exports Natural Gas To Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 31, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is such a traditional region and yet, it's changing.
Israel is the cause of the change -- and it is very positive change.

Traditional ideas about energy sources were that the Arabs have it and Israel does not. For decades there were even jokes about it.

That's changing. As of mid-January, Israel will begin exporting natural gas to Egypt.

The agreement between Israel and Egypt was leaked to the media in October.

According to the details of the deal Israel will eventually provide 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Egypt. That process will begin in January of 2020.

Jordan has also signed natural gas contracts with Israel.

Our parents would never have imagined a day when Israeli companies would be providing fossil fuel energy to an Arab country.
Never would have imagined!

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Optics & PA Pay to Slay
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

“Optics” is a concept in politics and PR. The principle is that public perception of an action or inaction reflects directly on the cause or candidate. Leaders in democratic societies always want to optimize good optics and reduce the impact of bad optics.

Even dictatorships embrace the concept of optics. They, too, are concerned about international perceptions and pressure despite not preserving the rights of their residents.

Israel recently announced and now passed a new policy. They will close bank accounts used to pay terrorists and their families. Israel also announced that they will deduct $150 million from the tax money they collect on behalf of the Palestinian Authority at Israeli ports. The $150 million is the amount annually given to terrorist and their families. It is a concept known as “pay to slay.” The more you murder the more you get paid. A failed attempt to murder Israelis is rewarded less than a successful mass murder.

In response to Israel’s new policies, the PA has said that they will continue to pay those wounded, arrested or killed. They will find ways to pay their murderers – whom they call martyrs. It is their right to pay and they will not adhere to an Israeli blockade.

Palestinian Minister of Coordination of Civil Affairs Hussein al-Sheikh said that this, “is another step of escalation meant to impose a financial blockade on us … "We will continue to pay stipends to the families of the martyrs and the wounded - no matter what's the cost."

Several Palestinian ministries are responsible for this “pay to slay” policy. The Ministry of Prisoner Affairs, for example, is dedicated to work on behalf of Palestinians in Israeli jails.

There is very little that Israel can do to successfully incentivize Palestinians to stop their policy of mass murdering Israelis. The pay scale for terrorists is one of the highest pay scales within the PA.

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New Anti-Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

We are witnessing new anti-Semitism. It is spreading and spreading quickly.

Never would I have envisioned so many blatant attacks against Jews. Never would I have imagined that Jews would physically be attacked for simply being Jewish. Verbal and physical attacks have reached new heights and I do not see them diminishing, I see them increasing.

Last night’s terror attack in Monsey, when a machete wielding African American attacked a Hanukkah celebration wounding five people is another example of this new anti-Semitism.

Of course politicians decried the attack. But it is is silence from leaders – role models who need to speak out and really condemn these acts, that is deafening.

These attackers are no longer outliers, they are not marginal people. They are attacking every day and often in broad daylight.

Where are the religious leaders? Where are the African American religious leaders? Why are Jews standing all alone confronting this scourge? Why has the community at large not stood up and said these ideas and actions are not acceptable?

Could it be that these leaders are silent because it is they who stimulate the hatred and tolerate the hatred?

Religious leadership of America step forward! Jewish America needs you to step forward. If not for our sake, do it for your own sake. If you do not stand with the Jews of America, you are, in essence, telegraphing the message that you are complicit in this growing scourge of anti-Semitic attacks.

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Israel Prepping for War
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

When Israel’s IDF chief of staff speaks, it is important to listen.

Aviv Kochavi recently spoke at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herziliya. His address had a far larger audience that simply those in the room - and he knew it.

The IDF chief of staff was speaking to Israel and to Israelis. He was speaking to Iran. He was speaking to Hezbollah and to Hamas. Believe me, everyone was listening. He was taking about the next war.

Kochavi said that Israel’s pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza could push the enemy to attack and even tip the response to a full blown war.

To Israel and to Israelis, the chief of staff said that he was prepared for the next war. He said the next war will be costly to the home-front and to the soldiers.
He explained that to win, it will require boots on the ground. He said that Hezbollah’s storage piles have at least 150,000 rockets. He said that Israel must destroy Hezbollah’s ability to strike.

To Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, Kochavi said that Israel is prepared way beyond air strikes. He emphasized that Israel’s reputation for not having the fortitude to take losses is incorrect. He said that a real win requires Israel to use more than missiles and air force jets.

IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi said that Israel will do what needs to be done to win.

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More Protests in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is blocking mobile internet - again. They are doing it for the same reason they always do it – to make it more difficult for protestors to communicate and organize.

In certain Iranian provinces, the internet is totally shut down.

Iran is expecting huge demonstrations starting Thursday. Protestors are hoping for 250,000 people. One of the motivational tools protest organizers use to get people out to the protests is video clips of others protesting. The obvious messaging and announcements of the protests are important but they only go so far in penetrating the intimidation and fear factor that Iranian leadership has perfected.

On the flip side, Iranian TV is broadcasting clips of protestors being beaten and shot while protesting. Their message, too, is obvious. If you protest this will happen to you!

Now we wait and see. Will the Iranian masses swarm to the streets? Will Iranian leadership authorize the killing of masses of innocent protestors in order maintain their power?

By tomorrow we should have answers.

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Message App Spies on US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Spying, by way of a communications app, means that someone can see and hear everything and everyplace you go.

The UAE has literally forced everyone to use the messaging app To Tok. They have outlawed and blocked Skype, Facetime and other similar apps. That means that anyone in the UAE who communicates with anyone outside the UAE is being closely watched. It also means that all those outside the UAE who were
communicated with, are now also being watched.

Even if you delete the app you are still being watched.

The UAE company behind the To Tok app is called Breej Holding. They are directly linked to and quite possibly the sponsor of the hacking group Dark Matter.

Dark Matter is responsible for numerous disruptions and hacks around the world. They are probably all connected to PAX-AI, a nefarious hacker company headquartered in Abu Dhabi.

This is very bad. This is an app sent out to hack and downloaded in the open market that lends government the ability to watch your every move. The kicker is the app was developed by evil hackers and put right onto the phones and tablets of unsuspecting people.

The NYTimes has uncovered this story. They ran an excellent piece explaining just how deep spying goes. The hacker and cyber security communities are buzzing and reeling from this discovery.

The app was removed from the App Store and the Play Store. That is a small consolation. The damage is done.

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Iran Cracking down Killing 1500
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is experiencing a phenomenon not typically seen in that country - huge protests.

According to Reuters Media which quoted three separate Iranian Interior Ministry sources, 1500 Iranian protestors and security officers have been killed since December 16th.

That would make this the bloodiest two weeks in Iran since the 1979 Revolution.

The sources say that orders came from the highest level of leadership to shut down the protests and the anti-government movement fueling the protests. In Iran, “shutting down” often mean kill.

The Supreme Leader has demanded that the protests stop now – if not he will hold the leaders of the protest responsible. According to a source in the inner circle of the government, the Grand Ayatollah said: “The Islamic Republic is in danger. Do whatever it takes to end it. You have my order.”

At first, Amnesty International and other groups originally estimated 300 deaths.
Then the US State Department upped that to 1000 deaths. Now the Iranians are giving even higher numbers. These numbers include 17 teens and 400 women.
Iranians are saying that over 200,000 people are taking part in the demonstrations against the government.

We don’t know how this will end, but we do know that, for Iran, this is transformative. Iranian leadership is running scared.

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Athens Burned Israeli Flag at B-Ball Game
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Israeli Basketball team Hapoel Yerushalim played in Athens against AEK Athens. It was part of a GameDay 9 Match.

400 Hapoel fans accompanied their team to cheer them on. The Israelis were met by and totally surrounded by security. The Israelis were not welcome in Athens.

The Athens fans burned the Israeli flag. They held up Hamas flags and pictures of convicted terrorist Marwan Barghouti, now serving time in sn Israeli prison. The Israeli's were stunned.

On one twitter post an Israeli can be heard saying how painful it was to watch her country's flag burn, but there was nothing that could be done.

At one point a large group of Athens fans converged on Israelis, chanting and shouting. Security stepped up and the crowd retreated.

The Israeli team made an appeal to the International Basketball Federation arguing that this kind of behavior does not belong in sports. Several investigations have begun. I hope that the Athens fans who behaved in this way are disciplined and that these kinds of fans are banned.

Basketball cannot fall victim to the violence and politics of European football and hooliganism.

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Christmas in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Christmas was celebrated in Israeli schools this year.
Arutz 7 reported that in a school in Herziliya, Christmas was given preferred treatment. I was stunned

A parent explained that: "Our son, who is in eighth grade, told us he doesn't understand why the school's staff is working to provide preferential treatment of Christian holidays at the expense of Jewish holidays. It seems that the school made a concerted effort to make the Christian holiday attractive, while neglecting and marginalizing Hanukkah."

The parent described school exhibits about Hanukkah and Christmas commenting that the Christmas display was well thought out while the Hanukkah display was drab and rundown.

Israel is the Jewish state. Israeli culture is Jewish.
While 2% of Israel is Christian and minority rights are very important, schools should teach about other traditions - celebrating them is a different story.

Interestingly, at 2% of the population, Christians are a smaller group than "other", which numbers at 4% of Israel's population in response to the question of religion. There are more "other" than Christians in Israel.

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More A/S in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism is much more prevalent than we even imagined. People now feel free to shout and say and even physically hit Jews.

I'm not certain how it happened - but everything has changed in the span of a few years. What was deemed unacceptable just a few years ago in the United States has transitioned from an isolated incident into a common occurrence.

I just watched a Facebook video of Lihi Aharon, an Israeli who defended a Jew on a NYC subway and was attacked in the process. The video shows a black woman shouting anti-Semitic vitriol, vile statements about Jews and at the Jew - unaware that Lihi was also Jewish. She continues to shout even after police come and subsequently arrest her.

Included in the woman's tirade was that more Jews should have been murdered in Jersey City. She called out to the obviously Jewish looking man that he was not Jewish because he is white. That particular phrase is from the standard script of many Jew haters. They believe that Jews are not Jews, they believe that blacks are the true Jews. That is what the Jersey City terrorist/murderers believed.

This movement is gaining in strength. It has become much stronger and leaders, especially responsible Christian Black leaders, must stand up and work hard to set the record straight. This hatred must be stopped.

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Israel's Numbers
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A new study from Israel's Census Bureau has posted a remarkable figure: 3.3 million people in Israel are immigrants.

That is a remarkable number, given the total numbers of Israel's population.

Israel's total population is just over 9 million and the Jewish population is just over 7 million. From the years 1990 to the present, 43.7% of Israel's immigrants made their way to Israel.

In real numbers, that means that nearly half the Jewish population and 1/3 of the total population came to Israel from elsewhere.

What a remarkable set of statistics.

Israel always saw herself as a refuge for Jews in trouble. Over the years the Jewish State has also become a magnet - a place where Jews do not just run in times of crisis, but as a place they move to in order to replace their home elsewhere in the Diaspora.

It is the Diaspora that is a temporary home - Israel is their permanent home.

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UK Blowout Election
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The British blowout election has many lessons to teach us.
Yes, it was a vote for Boris Johnson and especially his plan to exit the European Union - aka Brexit.

It was also a vote against Jeremy Corbyn and his new Labour Party.
Corbyn has not just embraced anti-Semitic rhetoric, not just articulated anti-Israel stances, the wannabe prime minister literally paid honor to a mass murderer - to the planner of the Munich Olympic massacre.

British electorate went to the polls not only to oust the EU, they went to oust Jeremy Corbyn. This was a clear disciplinary move.

Reading the results of the election the message was clear: Labour was informed that the new direction heralded by Cobryn did not bring votes. Cobryn failed.

This was about a vote against Corbyn’s new Labour Party.

Voters wanted to bring back the moderates - their message was loud and clear.

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Trump's Order Against A/S
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump signed an executive order that will withhold federal money from colleges and universities that do not stand up against anti-Semitism.

The US cannot either sanction or condone anti-Semitism or, for that matter, any form of hatred. The government certainly cannot financially subsidize that behavior – and that behavior is running rampant on campuses across the country, campuses that take money from the federal government.

For too long, anti-Semitism has run unchecked on campus.

This is not an issue of freedom of speech. This is not a first amendment issue. People’s hatred and their ability to spout that vitriol is, was and will continue to be protected.

This is something else.

This is about the United States government giving money to agencies that support hatred. And this practice will now be stopped. Obviously, it includes public colleges and universities, but private institutions of higher learning are also the recipients of significant sums of federal money and they, too, fall under this executive order.

This executive order could have huge implications. The president signed the order, now there must be follow up.


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Rhouhani To Visit Japan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It looks official. Iran’s President Rouhani will visit Japan on December 19th where he will have talks with his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

These are important talks.

Japan is a perfect country for Iran to use as a conduit to the West. They are a world force and yet small. They are pro US, but are Asian and their interests are in keeping Asia safe.

Iran trusts Japan. And at the same time Abe has a direct line in to the White House.

The meeting is an opportunity for Abe and Rouhani to speak frankly.

Very seldom is there a situation in which we can witness the behavior and eavesdrop on the conversation of Iran. The Iranians are, typically, either extremely defensive or simply creating a veneer.

This meeting may give us insight into the method and madness of the Iranian thought process.

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Erdogan Again Spews A/S Lies
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


Turkey’s President Erdogan is once again fabricating anti-Semitic lies about Israel.

Literally, right out of the Middle Ages, Erdogan is spreading evil canards about how Jews attack non-Jews.

He said, for example, that Israelis are just “mercilessly” murdering Palestinians on the streets.

These are statements from the official translated Turkish president’s website:

“We today face a Palestine on the streets of which innocent girls, fathers, mothers, elderly people, children and young people are openly executed and mercilessly murdered by Israel … What is more, Western countries and — I regret to say — some Arab states practically encourage this brutality of Israel. We, as Turkey, most of the time feel ourselves left alone in our objections to the oppression in Al-Quds and Palestine.”

True to form, Erdogan is fomenting anti-Semitism.

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Israel is Not A Banana Republic
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is scheduling a third election in one year.

Israel is not a banana republic, it is a strong democracy, and Israel is still in the laboratory stages.

Think about it. The United States is going through crazy political gyrations and no one is questioning its democratic foundations.

There are many who draw parallels between the leadership of Israel and the United States, between Netanyahu and Trump. There are some similarities but the differences are tremendous. What most critics are latching on to is that both Trump and Netanyahu face public hearings. Impeachment in the United States, trial in Israel.

Ahmed Tibi, Arab member of Knesset, said that his constituency will come out to vote in force this next election in order to oust Netanyahu. He said: "The Joint List will be strengthened and will gain more seats in the upcoming elections."

Tibi then added his opinion offering that both Trump and Netanyahu will removed from office and the world will be better. He said: "2020 will be the year of impeachment of two people without whom the world will be better - Trump and Netanyahu. We will replace Netanyahu with the election where some Arab voters will cast more votes than the last election."

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Merkel in Auschwitz
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday morning German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Auschwitz.

This was her first ever trip to Auschwitz and the third time a German head of state has visited. Merkel has visited other camps and has visited Yad VaShem which is Israel's Holocaust Museum located in Jerusalem.

The visit is significant. Auschwitz is the "camp of camps". It was at Auschwitz that the Nazi murder factory was most efficient, it was there that the Nazis murdered 1.1 million people.

That Germany has acknowledging their responsibly for the murder of the Jews of Europe, is an essential act. The Chancellor's visit to Auschwitz clearly broadcasts that message to all those who question the Holocaust.

In addition to her visit, Merkel committed an additional $60 million to maintain and preserve exhibits in the Auschwitz Museum. This brings the total gift of the German government to $120 million, all earmarked for preserving evidence that has been deteriorating over time.

Auschwitz impacts everyone. It is hard to imagine a single place where an industry of death was created in order to murder so many people, in such a short time, for no reason - other than being Jewish.

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Bibi Meets w Pompeo
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Lisbon, Portugal where he met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. They spoke about Iran and the role of Iran in the Middle East.

Netanyahu said, "Iran is increasing its aggression as we speak" in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. The Israeli prime minister thanked US President Trump for applying pressure on Iran.

Pompeo talked about Iranian protesters and how they yearn for freedom. He said, "These are people that are seeking freedom and a reasonable way to live, and they recognize the threat that's posed by the kleptocrats who are running the Islamic Republic of Iran."

It's obvious that the United States and Israel see eye to eye on Iran and the damage that Iran is creating in the region and around the world.

The question is: What now?

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Israelis Help
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

There was an earthquake in Albania. Now 54 people are dead, 2,000 are injured and about 4,000, people have been left homeless.

Most of us can’t find Albania on a map. Yet, Israel sent off a team of earthquake specialists to help.

Israel has developed an expertise in helping countries and communities regain their equilibrium following a disaster.

The Israelis send teams across the world wherever there is a natural disaster. The teams include engineers, doctors, social workers, local specialists, master communicators and community organizers. Every team also has a dog or several dogs that have been trained as canine survivor sniffers who help find people who may be trapped as a result of the disaster and destruction.

There are multiple teams like this in Israel that are dispatched to save lives and help those who have survived in the wake of earthquakes.

This is a part of the character the Jewish State of Israel. Israelis help people in need. Official representatives of Israel travel all over the world helping people.

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China Russia Iran - Wargames
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia, China and Iran are planning join war games in the Straits of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean - on land, sea and air. This is an important move by the great powers in the world, countries that set themselves up as a check against the United States and US interests.

The link between Iran, China and Russia is incredibly dangerous.
In November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: "We, the People's Republic of China and Iran are preparing naval drills for fighting terrorists and pirates in this part of the Indian Ocean,"

Iran announced this week that in December: a "joint war game between several countries, whether on land, at sea or in the air, indicates a remarkable expansion of cooperation among them."

Secretary of the National Security Council in Iran, Ali Shamkhani, explained why this is happening. He said that: "The countries that have had the biggest share in creating tensions and insecurity in the region and plunged the region into chaos and destruction by waging multiple wars and spreading terrorism have never been after the Persian Gulf's stability and security, and only seek to fulfill their own interests and plunder the region."

The problem is that Iran has stimulated and sponsored some of these vile elements he describes. Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse.

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Trump Talks to Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US President Trump spoke on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday. The White House released an email statement following the call.

According to the White House email statement: "The leaders discussed the threat from Iran, as well as other critical bilateral and regional issues".

There has been some distance between DC and Jerusalem.
The tension has more to do with Trump's lack of patience with Israeli politics than with actions or statements.

Donald Trump does not understand why Bibi Netanyahu has been unable to secure the premiership despite his two two attempts. The US President thinks of Bibi as a winner and a great leader -- and yet, after two elections, his leadership is in question. A third election is on the horizon in Israel. It will probably be held in March.

In the meantime, Israel has an interim PM … but that will not lift the tension or change the perspective of the US President.

Trump likes Netanyahu. More than anything else, Trump like success.
Donald Trump is not a patient man. In this case he is going to have to wait until March, Israeli politics do not march to his drum.

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Disunity among Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The actions and counter-actions during the recent conflict between Israel and Gaza, when Palestinian Islamic Jihad launched rockets into Israel and Israel responded by targeting Islamic Jihad and not Hamas, was unique.

That Israel did not hold Hamas responsible for the rocket fire and that Hamas did not respond and defend Islamic Jihad, was also unique.

What requires more attention is the response of the Palestinians in the West Bank to the conflict.

West Bank Palestinians were, effectively, silent.

Thirty-four Gazans were killed and one hundred and eleven were wounded. There were no West Banks protests. No uptick in attacks against the army or against Israeli settlers. No increased terror attacks. There was a serious conflict going on in Gaza and no response from fellow Palestinians a few miles away.

This is not unique, in fact, it is very common. Palestinians of the West Bank do not share common goals or even family ties with Palestinians in Gaza.

Throughout the years of conflict, certainly since 2007 when Hamas brutally threw the Palestinian Authority out of Gaza, there has been little or no official or unofficial interaction.

In Arabic this cultural separation is called "Ya Wahdana"- "You are Alone." It comes from a famous poem by Mahmud Darwish describing the Palestinian situation in the larger Arab and Muslim world. In this case, it refers to Gazans and Gazans only.

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Hamas Cancels Riots
By Micah Halpern

Thursday 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For the third week in a row the leaders of Hamas in Gaza have cancelled Friday’s March of Return.

The March is a massive weekly riot on the border between Israel and Gaza. Every Friday, for well over a year, Palestinians organized a violent set of attacks against Israeli soldiers. They rushed the border, threw firebombs, shot guns and slingshots at Israelis and launched balloons and drones with bombs.

Until now.

Now, for the third week, Hamas has called it off. The reason for the cancelations is clear. Hamas is holding up their end of a ceasefire, part of which included reducing tensions with Israel.

Let’s see if it lasts.

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Arab Journalists Tour Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Arab Journalist toured Israel last week as guests of the Foreign Ministry. The journalists came from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Egypt. They spent five days in Israel.

This was the second trip of its type in six months. Unlike the last trip, none of the journalists in this group wanted to go public and make people aware that they were visiting Israel.

If you remember, in the last group a famous Saudi blogger went public and was subsequently assaulted on the Temple Mount went he went to pray at the Mosque of al Aqsa.

Ironically, this visit coincided with the London Conference, a meeting of forward thinking Arab leaders that endorsed a call for Arabs to stop boycotting Israel.

Two steps forward, one step backward - change is slow but it seems to be on the way.

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Pompeo Tells Arabs to Recognize Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted on Monday that the Arab world should stop boycotting Israel. He said that if they would just talk to Israel, the Arab world would gain so much.

Pompeo tweeted: “It’s time for Arab countries to abandon boycotts and engage #Israel,”

Pompeo tweeted. “#MiddleEast divisions = instability.”

Pompeo tweeted: “Arab thinkers who risk their lives to bravely advocate a regional vision of peace and coexistence shouldn’t face retribution. We need dialogue.”

Secretary of State Pompeo was referencing the Conference of Arab Thinkers in London that called on the Arab world to accept Israel. Leading, forward thinking, unafraid Arab thinkers from fifteen countries bravely gathered to assert that the time has come for Arabs and Muslims to embrace Israel.

Kudos to those who attended the conference. Kudos to Mike Pompeo.

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US Chiefs of Staff Visits ISrael
By Micah Halpern

Monday 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, visited Israel on Sunday. He met with his Israeli counterpart, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi.

The IDF released a statement about the meeting. The official statement read that Milley’s visit was a sign of “the depth of the partnership between the forces and its importance in promoting regional stability.”

This is no small event. Tensions in the region are high. Iran is flexing its muscles all over. Their support for Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Syria is two examples of Iran’s involvement very lose to Israel’s borders.

Iran has forces and advisers on the ground in Syria. That is way too close for Israel’s and the United States’ comfort.

Add to that Iran’s nuclear expansion activities and their moves against the US drone and against Saudi oil sites. Iran is feeling very secure.

Israel and the United States need to be on the same page to be able to check Iran when necessary.

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Arabs Against BDS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The New York Times ran a piece recently about the Arab Council for Regional Integration, a conference that took place in London.

The conference consisted of a group of Arabs who came to the conclusion that rejection of Israel has failed and actually hurt the Arab cause. They determined that the time has come to not just recognize Israel, but to cooperate with Israel.

The conference was sponsored by the Center for Peace Communications, a US group and it featured Arabs from business, academia, the media and even from political families.

It is essential to realize that there are Arab leaders who understand that dealing with Israel can be mutually beneficial. That, even when the parties disagree, there are still benefits to meeting and creating deals that will help grow the region.

This is a major step forward.

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Russian Tourists to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Two Russian tour agencies are offering excursions to Syria.
The itineraries include Damascus, Aleppo and Roman remains of Palmyra, also known as the “Bride of the Desert.”

The cost of the 8-day trip is $1950, US dollars. This does not include flights, visa fees and insurance. Pricey -- but people are signing up.

According to the website of the Russian foreign ministry, they strongly advise against traveling to Syria.

So far in 2019, 334 Russian tourists visited Syria. That was three times the number of Russian visitors in 2018. It looks like Syria will host even more Russian tourists in 2020.

It is hard to imagine why any Russian, or anyone at all, would want to visit Syria. Then again, there are people who are actually excited going into war zones. There is a niche market for tourist who want to be the first or for those who want to explore dangerous areas.

These Russian tour agencies have tapped into that culture.

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Iran Shuts the Internet
By Micah Halpern

Thursday 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iranians have been protesting over huge hikes in the price of gasoline.
There was a real chance that these protests were going to grow and expand and maybe even topple the Iranian regime. So Iranian leadership jumped in and reacted.
They sent in brutal police to intimidate the protestors. And the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that if the protests do not stop, they will step in. The threat was well understood.
I addition, on Saturday Iranian leadership shut off the internet. It was off for four days and when turned back on – only 4% of the internet actually resumed.
When the internet is turned off in Iran real communication is effectively squashed.
Iranian leadership had never before choked the internet to this extent. They liked what they saw. They saw how effective this method was.

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US Carrier Thru Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The USS Abraham Lincoln, a US aircraft carrier, passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday along with accompanying ships.

The carrier group went through the Strait very slowly. The entire passage was tense.

On one side of the Strait is Iran.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have been very high.
The United States blames Iran for hijacking oil tankers and for shooting down a US drone. The United States is also claiming that Iran attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Iran has threatened to attack a US military ship in the region.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and the carrier group are in the region to try to protect oil, shipping and other interests of the United States in the region.
Iran is monitoring every move.

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Russia Poaching US Clients
By Micah Halpern

Monday 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is expanding their weapons program.
The Russians are on the prowl for new clients interested in buying their fighter jets and missiles. Egypt has been enticed and they are in talks with Russia about augmenting their air force.
If the sale goes through, it would a violation of US contracts. Until now, ever since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been supplying Egypt with weaponry.
R. Clarke Cooper, Assistant Secretary of State in the US Bureau of Political- Military Affairs, issued a very bold and direct statement at the Dubai Air Show. The assistant secretary said that if Egypt buys Russian hardware: "It puts them at risk of sanctions and it puts them at risk of loss of future acquisition."
There are other sanctions that the US would apply. These would include spare parts and technology and anything that is connected even remotely to military assistance.
It would Egypt in the long run. But Russia really wants to break the US hold on countries like Egypt and is making their offers sound very attractive.

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Iran:"We're Not Anti-Semitic"
By Micah Halpern

Sunday 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, announced that he is not anti-Jewish at all.

At an Islamic conference in Tehran The Supreme Leader told the participants: “Calling for the elimination of the state of Israel does not mean the elimination of the Jewish people.” The comments were posted to his official website.

He continued “It means that the people of Palestine - be they Muslim, Christian or Jewish - should choose their own government.”

Iran is responding to the claims that they are planning to destroy Israel. The Supreme Leader wants it to be clear that his attitude toward Israel is political and theological.

It is certain that The Supreme Leader does not really think that there should be an election to determine the political leadership of the area. He is making a gesture to rebut his vehement threats to destroy Israel.

When you plan to wipe out a nation of 7 million Jews that is called anti-Semitism. Most of those 7 million people are not religious - they are simply Jews and they will be targeted because they are Jews.


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Cease Fire In Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A cease fire between Islamic Jihad and Israel went into effect at 5:30am.
As has become the custom, air raid sirens and rockets attacks persisted even after the cut off time.

The military exchange started on Tuesday and ended on Thursday. Thirty-two Palestinians were killed. Israel maintains that almost all were terrorists.
Islamic Jihad launched well over 450 rockets into Israel in a 48 hour period. That averages out to nearly 10 per hour - one rocket every 360 seconds on average.

Islamic Jihad threatened the international diplomats who were delivering messages from Israel. The threats were that intermediaries could get hurt because they are in the way and they are delivering messages from Israel.
It's over, technically, but it's never really over between Islamic Jihad and Israel.

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New Gaza Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The conflict out of Gaza is unique in many ways:
It pits Islamic Jihad against Israel - Hamas has stood on the sidelines
No one wants an escalation
Hamas is pleased with the ceasefire that has been in place since May

Israel's first strike was extremely surgical as have been their subsequent strikes. They are now taking out many above ground Islamic Jihad rockets.
Hamas does not control Islamic Jihad. They will watch, and smile, while Israel takes Islamic Jihad down a few notches.

In an effort to display unity, Hamas and Islamic Jihad released a joint statement saying that they are united. But it is not true. Their statement read: "We will not accept efforts by the occupation to resume their cowardly policy of targeted killings."

Islamic Jihad is unpredictable. Targeting their leader saved Israeli lives - never doubt that. The aftermath was predictable. But after a serious operation in which Israel depletes or destroys much of their weapons caches, the status quo and quiet will resume.

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Russian Sub in Israel's Waters
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A Russian submarine was spotted in Israeli territorial waters. The sub ventured eight nautical miles in. That's a lot, given that the area spans only twelve nautical miles.

The story was broken by YNet news, the Yediot website. The incident took place three months ago.

Once Israel discovered the Russian sub, they contacted Russian leadership.

Russia and Israel have a mechanism in place to avoid conflict. They have a direct line of communication. Within minutes of activating the mechanism, the
Russian submarine returned to the international waters of the Mediterranean Sea.

Luckily, this did not become an international incident.

Russia did not mistakenly wander into waters so close to Israel. There was a definite agenda. The closer the submarine got to Israel, the easier it would be to latch onto Israel’s computers and other electronic resources.

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Iran Discovers New Oil
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s president announced that the Iranians have discovered a huge new oil reserve.

President Rouhani said that they discovered a source containing 53 billion barrels of oil about 100 yards below the ground.

If true, this treasure trove would be only slightly smaller than the largest Iranian oil system which contains 63 billion barrels.

If true, this would move Iran into the # 3 slot in the list of countries with the greatest oil reserves.

If true, this discovery is so large that it would increase total OPEC reserves by 34%.

Add that to the announcement Iran made last month about a new discovery of natural gas. Something very big is happening in Iran.

The announcements are made publicly in an effort to reposition Iran in the eyes of supporters. The message Iran is sending out is that they are not down in the dumps – rather they are major players in the sphere of oil and natural gas.

The most important, albeit unspoken, point in these messages is that the United States is preventing Iran from tapping these resources. The United States will not permit Iran to extract and sell their badly needed natural resources.

The resources are badly needed by the world, the revenue is badly needed by Iran. These announcements help resuscitate Iran’s image.

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Israel Gives Land back to Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan and Israel signed a peace treaty on October 26, 1994.
The signing took place "somewhere: in the Arava Desert. I was there. It was historic and it was emotional.

Now, twenty-five years later, Jordan is walking back two elements in the treaty. The Jordanians are not breaking the treaty, provisions to reclaim certain areas were included in the original document and the Jordanians have decided to exercise that option.

# 1: Naharayim
Naharayim is an island, it is where the Yarmuk and Jordan rivers merge. The spot is a very important fresh water pumping and control station for the entire Jordan valley. Parenthetically, it is also the site where in 1997, a terrible massacre took place and seven Israeli high school girls were gunned down by a Jordanian soldier.

# 2: Tzofar
Tzofar is a plot of land in the Arava. Once dry and barren, thanks to Israeli care and agricultural science, it is now cultivated and flourishing.
Both areas are reverting back to Jordan. The government of Jordan put forth the requests a year ago as clearly articulated in the 1994 peace agreement.

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Pompeo At Shul
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the synagogue in Halle, Germany where last month a man threw bombs and shot people outside their synagogue. A Jewish massacre in the synagogue was averted only because those already inside the synagogue for prayers locked themselves in.

Secretary Pompeo wanted to take a stand against anti-Semitism. He also urged others to fight against anti-Semitism.

The secretary of state said, "Anti-Semitism is not just limited to certain places. We can find it everywhere… like in Pittsburgh. We must work together against this vicious attack on religious freedom.”

Pompeo is more than correct to fight anti-Semitism. Where he misses the point, however, is that hatred is not about religion and the practice of Judaism – the problem anti-Semites have is not universal hatred against religion, their problem is with Jews.

Anti-Semites have no problem with Judaism.

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Saudis Spy Using Twitter
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

According to charges filed in San Francisco, Saudi Arabia is directly connected to spying on Twitter users in America between May 21, 2015 and November 18, 2018. Two dual citizens of the United States and Saudi Arabia and one Saudi national were charged with accessing Twitter details and delivering the data to the Saudis.

The case is shocking.

Two Twitter employees and one handler were responsible for collecting the data of 6,000 critics of the Saudi regime. Not just their names, and usernames - they also accessed the meta data, the material that can show the geographic location of the user.

They did it In exchange for money and gifts.

Ahmad Abouammo, one of the dual citizens, was a media partnership manager at Twitter. He received $300,000 and a $20,000 Hubolt watch, paid by an unnamed person referred to as Saudi National -1.

Ali Alzabarah, the second Saudi/US dual citizen worked at Twitter as a site reliability engineer. He was confronted for accessing private Twitter info which was outside his job responsibilities. The next day he resigned by sending an email from a plane. He was on his way back to Saudi Arabia with his handler.
With the info gained from these spies the Saudi government boldly put in a request to Twitter for information on 33 Twitter usernames in what they called an "emergency disclosure".

Twitter admits that the nature of the industry creates "bad actors" who will try to undermine its service and that the company "limits access to sensitive account information to a limited group of trained and vetted employees."

The company statement read: "We understand the incredible risks faced by many who use Twitter to share their perspectives with the world and to hold those in power accountable ... We have tools in place to protect their privacy and their ability to do their vital work."

This entire episode is very troubling. The redeeming point is that the Saudis were charged and that the government was named.

If you remember, the 9-11 hijackers were Saudis. Mysteriously, despite the fact that all flights in the US were grounded, private Saudi planes flew returning many Saudi nationals to the kingdom. The United States has and continues to block any move to investigate how the Saudis were involved.

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Putin Invests in Libya
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

You probably don't know this, most people don't, but Libya has been enveloped by a civil war. As a land mass, Libya is enormous, it is three times the size of Texas. It is the Tobruk aka the House of Representatives versus the General National Congress. It may sound purely political, but this is true military warfare.

Who does know about it? Vladimir Putin, for sure.

For years the Russians have been investing money and weapons in order to sway the outcome of the conflict. They are rooting for and supporting the Tobruk. Now -- and I mean right now -- Russia has put specialists with experience on the ground in Libya.

The numbers are, of course, unclear. This is Russia we are dealing with. But we do know that there are dozens of Russian snipers, Russian hardware and at least 200 Russian soldiers. Russian weaponry includes guided missiles and fighter jets. And there are many, many Russian mercenaries. These mercenaries function as a private Russian army and they are extremely useful. Because they are not soldiers, the mercenaries are unshackled and can do things an army cannot do.

Hundreds of drones are being used and they are all operated by people with great experience in civil wars. The Russian soldiers and the mercenaries all came to this war with vast experience gained in Syria.

What is the reason for Russia's interest in Libya? The answer has three letters. O-I-L.

The reserves are immense. Despite the internal conflict, Libya is still pumping 1.3 million barrels of oil per day.

Libya is so close to Europe that it is very important to secure those oil fields.
Moving the oil via pipeline or tanker is simple. Libya sits only 300 miles off the coast of Italy. That means that Libya is a valuable asset to acquire.

Russia knows it. Putin has his eye on the money and the oil. In Libya he can get both for a very tiny investment.

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Iran Breaks Nuke Ceiling
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced the third stage of their reaction to the pullout by the United States from the - now infamous - Nuke Deal of 2015.
In September the Iranians declared that stage three was in the works and on Monday, as promised, the announcement was made.
Iran is now producing more than the 5,000 rods of uranium way beyond what was agreed upon in the Deal. Until now, the Iranians were using old IR centrifuges, now they are using newer and better IR-6 centrifuges. They are enriching their uranium ten times faster than stipulated in the agreement and ten times faster than what they were enriching in September.
The announcement was made on Iranian TV.
Ali Akbar Salehi, Vice President of the Islamic Republic and Head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency made the announcement. Salehi also said that Iran was working on IR-9 centrifuges which will be able to enrich fifty times faster than the IR-1.
The Iranians are public relations whizzes. They chose to release their information on TV, rather than at a press conference, to show the Iranian masses that Iran is snubbing its nose at the West, in particular, at the United States.

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Iran To Re-Build Syrian Electricity
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Syria and Iran just signed a Memorandum of Understanding.

Iran agrees to rebuild Syria’s electricity infrastructure. Iran agrees to rebuild Syria’s power plant transmission line. Most importantly, Iran agrees to link their electric grid with Syria’s electric grid.

Syria has been isolated by the Western world. Russia and China have not come forward to rebuild the Syrian electricity infrastructure – Iran has.

This link between Syria and Iran demonstrates a deep interaction between the two states. They are linked by mutual interests and by mutual gains and more than that, they are linked because they share mutual enemies.

Iran and Syria need one another.

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They Still Blame Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

President Bashar Assad claims that the protests in Lebanon and in Iraq as well the civil war that has ripped his country apart for the last eight years are all the fault of Israel and the United States. The Syrian president said that all these events are “tools serving Israel directly or through the Americans”.

He said “this is self-evident. Even if we do not discuss it, it is one of our national givens in Syria.”

Iran has joined the chorus. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif is also claiming that the protests in Lebanon and Iraq are sponsored by Israel.

Of course, this is totally absurd.

The blame Israel game is an old story. Blaming Israel for all things gone wrong is a historic tradition that has enveloped the Middle East.

These voices are becoming stronger. But so are the voices of other Middle East countries willing to break down traditional views of Israel and move closer and closer towards normalization.

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Is It A New Arab Spring
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 31, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Given the prolonged protests in Lebanon and Iraq, there is talk about another Arab Spring.

In Egypt, in Gaza, in Iran and in other countries across the Middle East there have been massive police crackdowns in response to protests and rallies against dictatorships, authoritarian leaders and monarchies.

Protests of this sort can shake a society to its core.

In Syria, the protests which started far away from the capital grew and spread and have now enveloped almost the entire country, including the capital city Damascus. It is those protests which resulted in the Syrian civil war responsible for the bedlam we are seeing today.

The situation in the Middle East is explosive. Protests can spread as quickly as wildfire. Middle East leaders know this well. They are acting to protect their power and their positions.

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New Poll on A/S
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A new poll about Anti-Semitism was published recently.

The American Jewish Committee (AJC) sponsored the study of 1,283 people over a period of a month.

The most telling or even shocking result of the poll is that 1/3 of the Jews are afraid to wear Jewish identifying marks in public. They were referring to wearing Stars of David and other Jewish symbols and jewelry. The exact wording of the questions was "avoided publicly wearing, carrying or displaying things that might help people identify them as Jews."

1/4 of the respondents said that they avoided public Jewish events for fear for their safety. 9 out of 10 Jews asked say that Anti-Semitism is a real issue today.

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Wrong Headlines- Shame
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Why should any of this surprise me. The headline in the Washington Post called one of the most brutal murderers in the modern era an “austere religious scholar.” The headline continued "Dies at 48."

Remarkably, this was the second headline the rework. The first called Baghdadi "Terrorist in Chief."

Finally on Monday morning, a new headline emerged on the website. "Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, extremist leader of Islamic State, dies at 48." No doubt this third headline is much better - but it is still far from a true depiction of the magnitude of the news.

I am an equal opportunity critic. Everything President Trump does as president is not perfect. When I disagree, I explain where he is off base in my analysis. I think he would appreciate the honesty and the analysis. It is how we play the game. All thinkers can and should be able to disagree about ideas.

But when Trump does the correct thing and scores a huge victory for freedom and democracy and the US. Everyone should applaud.

Everyone should applaud even if you dislike Trump. This no different than when your arch rival team makes a great play -- a one in a million perfect triple play. Honesty, intellectual honesty and ethics demands that you acknowledge the greatness of the moment. Enjoy it and compliment the other team.

Shame on those who did not see how significant this moment is.

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Killing Al Baghdadi
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Al Baghdadi, arch terrorist, founder and head of ISIS, was killed in a US Special Ops mission in Syria.

Now that Baghdadi has been killed, will that put the nail in the coffin of ISIS?

Unfortunately, Baghdadi’s death will probably not make a big difference.

Killing Baghdadi was important for the United States. It spoke to our sense of justice, but it has very little to do with ISIS.

Many of Baghdadi’s underlings have already been targeted by the United States. There are still many more senior ISIS members and an internal power struggle will emerge for the new ISIS leader. While Baghdadi was the terrorist organization’s figurehead while alive, in death his position could be even more powerful.

ISIS is as strong as ever and still growing. 11,000 ISIS prisoners have walked out of Syria’s Kurdish jails. They are now regrouping, organizing and readying to fight under their original mandate.

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Protests Ripple Effect in MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


The protests in Lebanon are having a ripple effect in the Middle East. People in
Lebanon have been taking to the streets to protest against government corruption and mismanagement.

Hamas in Gaza is afraid that the residents will learn form Lebanon and swarm to the streets and protest in Gaza.

So Hamas has arrested dozens of political leaders from groups and parties and organizations that might want to challenge Hamas especially those who have the potential to gather protesters.

This is another great example of the inter-connectedness of the issues across the Middle East. Even the small internal politics of Lebanon impact Gaza and probably many other places in the Middle East.

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Palestinian Converts to Judaism
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A 50 year-old Palestinian man from Hebron converted to Judaism on the eve of Rosh Hashanah.

His name has not been made public. But we do know that on the eve of Yom Kippur the new convert paid a visit to Hebron, his home town.

And then, as he was visiting his children, Palestinian police came, dragged him out and beat and arrested him. He is still in prison. All because he converted to Judaism.

The convert is proud of his status. His grandfather saved 26 Jews during the horrific massacre in Hebron in 1929.

There is an important lesson here: Palestinians are not open to any alternative to established, Islamic, Palestinian lifestyle.

How narrow minded. How sad.

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Israel to Attend to Summit in Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


Israel’s Channel 13 reported that an Israeli delegation will attend a two-day summit in Manama, Bahrain starting on Sunday.

This is part two of a meeting that was sponsored by the United States and originally held in Poland in February.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman will attend the conference and they have made it clear that they will certainly address the "Iranian threat in the Persian Gulf.”

This conference is another example of how relations with Israel are being normalized.

The normalization has caused others to be upset. Like Hamas, for example, which has condemned the meeting.

Now Hamas will probably target those countries that are publicly working with Israel against another Muslim country.


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Arabs Warn Against Trips to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have issued travel warning against visiting Lebanon.
The warning also urged those in Lebanon to stay inside or even leave.

Over the past few days protests have enveloped Lebanon. Thousands have rushed to the streets and caused traffic jams. The military has cracked down. The protests continue.

It is all about economic reforms and the changes people are demanding from
Lebanese the government. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has promised reforms.
And Hezbollah, the powerful terror group that controls southern Lebanon, is the de facto king maker in the country and has thrown their support behind Hariri.

Until recently, Lebanon, especially the capital city Beirut, was returning to its old cultural self - a city of cafes and international appeal with a vibrant night life.

These protests are unique. Never before has here been such civil engagement in Lebanon about policy.

For decades the conflict and the protests were always about Christian/Muslim and Shiite/Sunni divisions. Now the protesters are demanding that the government, especially the cabinet, work together to solve the economic crisis and free up $11 billion to go towards infrastructure.

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China Buying Iran's Oil
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

China is the by far the country importing more Iranian oil than any other country in the world. The Chinese are doing so in direct opposition to US President Trump’s demand that they sanction Iran.

The Chinese have been turning off their GPS transponders making it impossible to know the exact location of their ships. That means that Chinese ships are not trackable when they go to Iranian ports. Then, after picking up their oil load, they turn their GPS back on and go on their way.

US sanctions have been successful. Before Trump imposed these sanctions Iran was exporting 2.5 million barrels of oil each day. Now their oil output has been cut to 400,000 barrels a day.

The White House is not happy with this situation. They are contacting Chinese shipping companies and warning them not to play games when it comes to sanctions.

It does not appear that China is taking the White House’s message to heart.

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UAE Luring Israeli Techies
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

DarkMatter is a cyber company headquartered in Cyprus. In reality, DarkMatter is actually a company that is run and controlled by the United Arab Emirates.

What makes this interesting fact even more interesting is DarkMatter is recruiting ex Israeli intel officers. They are luring them with annual salaries of nearly $1 million.

The Israelis were part of 8200, an elite cyber command unit that is responsible for the defense of Israel as well as creating offensive strategies to attack Israel’s enemies.

DarkMatter’s official goal is supposed to limit their work to defense but that is highly unlikely. They have already been accused of threatening and attacking activists and journalists.

Israeli leadership is concerned. Is Israeli know-how being used to attack innocent people? Is it helping an Arab dictatorship?

There is little doubt that people act in their best interest and $1 million is a huge incentive.

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Tensions Btw Israel and PA
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian leadership is preventing Palestinians from buying Israeli sheep and calves.

This is now a serious bone of contention.

Israel responded that if Palestinians continue with this policy, Israel will no longer buy Palestinian agricultural products.

Israel's Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Major General Kamil Abu Rukun, said: “Israel will not allow boycotts of any kind against Israeli produce." He continued: “Because of the Palestinian Authority's unilateral decision, which is hurting the economies of both sides, and after several inquiries to resolve the issue on various levels, I have warned that if the situation does not return to normal, we will not allow much of the Palestinian agricultural produce to enter Israel."

Palestinian government spokesman Ibrahim Melhem responded that Palestinians have the right to diversity in the items in its markets, including replacing Israeli products with Arab products.

This kind of economic gaming will hurt and even destroy the local economies. There is no doubt that it is much more efficient to trade locally.

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Gaza Arrests ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Can you imagine a situation where one terrorist group arrests a group of terrorists?

The leadership of Gaza arrested four ISIS members. They were planning attacks against Hamas leadership. All this was reported in the daily paper Al Akhbar a daily newspaper publishing in Beirut. The paper also said that these same four assassins were also involved in launching rockets against Israel.

This is where the story gets interesting. Hamas in Gaza has handed down a directive to stop firing rockets into Israel. The reason for this policy is purely practical. They want to stop Israel from countering or even invading. The cost is too high.

ISIS on the other hand is livid that Hamas is not attacking Israel at every possible moment. So, they have recruited Gazans to join their terrorist cause to not just attack Israel but to attack Hamas too.

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Putin Does it Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is always finding ways to step up their game on the international stage. They are constantly pushing the buttons of the United States.

Vladimir Putin is a master of strategy. Russia's president never misses an opportunity to stick it to the US. He does that most effectively by challenging the authority and power of the United States and its role as leader of the free world.

At a conference held recently on the topic of International Politics held in the famous Russian resort city of Sochi, Putin announced that Russians are helping China build a warning system against missiles. That's big news. Until now, only the United States and Russia have had this exclusive kind of advanced technology.

Putin acknowledged the magnitude of this endeavor when he said: "This is a serious thing that will drastically increase the defense capabilities of the People's Republic of China.”

By helping China build this defense system Russia masterfully both advanced their own position and aided China - all of which further diminishes the position of the United States.

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Iran's Oil Exports
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iran's oil ministry website posted a statement by Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh. The Iranian oil minister said that Iran will go to any length to export its oil and that it is their right do so.

Zanganeh said: "We will use every possible way to export our oil and we will not succumb to America's pressure because exporting oil is Iran's legitimate right."

He is correct on both counts.

Iran is going to great lengths to export their oil. And exporting their oil is their legitimate right.

US sanctions are on buying Iranian oil - not on Iran exporting their most significant natural resource, which happens to be oil.

Iran is not violating either international law or US sanctions by finding ways to export oil. Rather, it is the purchasers of that oil and the middle-men facilitating the purchases who are violating sanctions.

The most powerful and influential countries helping Iran are China and Russia. India is also getting oil from Iran -- but far less than China and Russia.

To get the oil, ships are turning off the tracking devices on their oil tankers and using pipelines to avoid being monitored by the United States. The problem with turning off transponders is that pirates have not lowered their profile since these tensions with Iran have surfaced and the tankers are making their job of boarding and taking over ships easier.

Turning off tracking devices can be extremely dangerous.

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Ships Waiting in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

20 ships with over 10,000 tons of grain are just sitting outside Iranian ports.
They are waiting to be off loaded.

The ships just sit and sit and wait.
The grain is badly needed by the people of Iran.
The grain has not been brought into port for several reasons.

Most significantly, Iran does not have the money to pay.

US sanctions have made it nearly impossible for Iran to purchase basic
necessities. But it's not just the cash crunch. Ships want to make certain that their delivery will not be seen by the watchful eyes of the United States.
Ship owners fear US economic retaliation. And rightfully so.

The United States is utilizing all forms of intelligence, satellites, drones, computers and human intel to monitor the situation. The US can find out whatever it needs to know.

Nonetheless, despite the pressure and the intel, two ships managed to unload their cargo over the past two weeks. But that is almost nothing relative to the tremendous needs of Iran.

US sanctions against Iran are having a significant effect, that seems obvious.

What seems equally as obvious is that the sanctions are, quite literally, starving Iranians.

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Russia: No Proof Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


The situation emerging in the oil and energy world is anything but simple.
Russia has proclaimed that Iran is not responsible for the bombing of Saudi oil infrastructure fields and refineries. Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani personally assured him that Iran had nothing to do with the bombing.

This interaction took place at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Yerevan, Armenia on Tuesday, October 1, 2019.

Putin said: "We condemn these (attacks) but we are against shifting the blame to Iran because there is no proof of that.” He went on to says that the US has provided not proof that it was Iran who launched the missiles and the drones.

This creates a sticky issue for the US and Saudi Arabia. How can they retaliate when Russia strongly and publicly asserts that Iran was not responsible?

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Saudi Pro Israel Blogger
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


Remember Mohammed Saud, the Saudi Blogger who speaks Hebrew, loves Israel and visited in July?

Saud has a following of hundreds of thousands of Muslims. And in honor of Rosh HaShanna he tweeted a New Year’s message in Hebrew.

On Friday Saud sang a beautiful sang called Achila Le’ayl, a prayer from the High Holiday services and addressed the prayer to his Ashkenazi brothers. He also tweeted a blessing to his Sephardi brothers.

When Mohammed Saud visited the Temple Mount back in July, some of the Muslim worshippers threw plastic chairs and plastic bottles at him. He is a lightning rod for and against him.

It should not surprise anyone that there is a negative response to a Muslim who loves Israel.

What is a surprise is that despite his love for Israel, Mohammed Saud has such a large and positive following. His popularity is growing daily.


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Abbas @ UN
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the United Nations General Assembly yesterday. He took advantage of the opportunity to lambast the United States and Israel.

Abbas used the term “aggressive” numerous times. That is in and of itself telling.

Of the subject of US and President Trump this is what Abbas said: "The United States has taken illegal and aggressive measures.”

No surprise there. Abbas is very upset that the Trump administration has recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and has recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Speaking about Israel Abbas used the same term “aggression” but this time around he a very different tone and said: “The international community must put an end to Israeli aggression and arrogance."

“Aggression and arrogance”. Abbas is not even dealing with the legal aspect of aggression, but with arrogance -- the attitude. In this speech Abbas invoked the arrogant and aggressive stereotype of the Jew. It is a classic anti-Semitic canard. The Jew is pushy. The Jew is demanding. The Jew is haughty. The Jews is out of his place.

The speech delivered by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the United Nations General Assembly was vitriolic and anti-Semitic. Not surprisingly when Abbas spoke the words “Israeli aggression and arrogance,” he was met with great applause.

Welcome to the United Nations GA, circa 2019.

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Accidental Mtgs @ The UN
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Many very positive and often unpublicized developments take place during the annual UN General Assembly in NYC.

The GA is the perfect place for world leaders to unofficially meet or even plan to “accidently meet”. It is the place where aides meet and lay the ground work for future quiet dialogue. These meetings can be extremely successful and helpful, far away from the judgmental eyes of the public and the media.

It’s happening already. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz had an unofficial meeting late last night with his Russia counterpart Sergey Lavrov. They obviously discussed Syria and Iran.

And now the official statement of the Israeli Foreign Ministry mentions that Katz invited Lavrov to visit Israel.

This is a classic Jewish initiative – it is also very effective. Hospitality works. Seeing Israel and the issues facing Israelis first hand is a very useful way of convincing Russia that Israel’s concerns about Iran are very real and justified.


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Iran Says Israel Supports ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Just watched the Mike Wallace interview on Fox News with Iranian President Rouhani.

Rouhani said that Israel supports ISIS. He said that Iran actually destroyed ISIS.

He said that Trump destroyed the mutual trust by pulling out of the nuclear deal.

WOW -- talk about spin!!!!

A senior Iranian foreign ministry source added:
"We will never renegotiate a deal that took us years to reach ... Iran's leadership supports diplomacy but if Americans want to ease tension, they should lift sanctions and end pressure on Tehran."

These comments from the Rouhani and from the Iranian source show the true stance of Iran. Iran seems to see things only through their eyes. Rouhani says that they support those who are defending themselves and that Israel is the greatest terrorist in the world. Iran helps protect people against that Israel's terror. He asserted that Iran gives aid to help those oppressed and that they help defend the defenseless against Israeli aggression.

They certainly live in a different world.

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Iran is Hurting
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US is acting against Iran. This is a direct response to Iran’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities. US has concluded that Iran perpetrated the attacks on September 14. England, France and Germany have also concluded that Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields and refineries.

So, the US is tightening sanctions on Iran. Brian Hook the US Special Envoy for Iran says that the US must move "prudently". The US does not want to move too quickly or to make a drastic mistake by attacking or acting too aggressively.

Hook spoke at the Asia Society in NYC he said: "It is that Iran has crossed the line by this attack on another country's sovereignty."

This kind of calculated, slow response to Iran is very unlikely to intimidate Iran.

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Iran's Game
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is waiting for an American response to their attack on Saudi oilfields and refineries. The Iranian strike resulted in collapsing Saudi oil production by 50% and reducing world oil by 5%.

A combination of 30 drones and cruise missiles launched from Iran into Saudi Arabia was the cause. It was an Iranian response to the west’s sanctions. Now Iran is awaiting the counter by the US and Saudi Arabia.

The verbal US response was not very intimidating. Both the US President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo both spoke strongly but then couched and trimmed their anger. This tamed response will not be interpreted as a threat by Iran – actually the opposite.

If sanctions are all that the US is intending to enact against Iran – then the Supreme Leader will undoubtedly release another military strike. He is playing a game by pushing the envelope. That is exactly what he did by downing the US drone earlier this summer. The lack of response or a limited response by simply imposing more sanctions led the Supreme Leader to consider and then embark on this attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. The Supreme Leader loves these games and he gets a perverse pleasure out of making the US squirm.

He will continue to play until he is put in his place. He knows that the Saudis cannot do it alone, so he is challenging the US. It seems that he believes that US President Trump cannot or does not have the personal strength to take to blowback from Iran and the rest of the world. The US is taking the easy way out through sanctions.

But know, Iran is going to continue to push the envelope. They will once again strike at a US ally. Maybe they will strike another Saudi refinery or maybe one in the UAE instead.

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China Invests in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 20, 2019
I’ve Been Thinking:

Things got much more complicated between the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

China just entered the scene in a gargantuan way. They recently signed a $400 billion deal with Iran. It is an investment in the form of a capital investment into the Iranian economy.

China is doing exactly the opposite of what the US is asking countries to do. China is providing the badly needed US dollars Iran needs in order to provide for basic necessities for the economy.

Now the US must confront China but will they.

If they do not it will signal to everyone else including Iran that the US has no bite behind their roar.

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Iran's Judo Champ
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Saeid Mollaei the Iranian Judoka who followed country's leaders’ orders and threw a match so as not to compete against an Israeli has been in hiding in Germany for fear of his life since the end of the competition.

He cannot contact his family in Iran for fear that they will be punished for his actions.

The fly in the ointment is that he really wants to compete in the upcoming Olympics in Japan but certainly cannot and will not compete for Iran. He now has no country.

Now there is a solution for Mollaei and others. The International Olympic Committee has created a special team for refugees for this very purpose.

But there is another problem --- an athlete of the level of Mollaei needs to practice and needs to internationally. That draws attention. He will not be able to stay underground for long.

Mollaei is in Germany under a sports visa he did not request asylum.

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Israeli Election Results
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just finished their second election in 5 months and the results are important. Very important.

It does not matter who got more votes. What matters is -- who can carve out a coalition of 61 of the 120 members of Knesset to govern.

Many pundits are saying the best bet is a broad-based coalition of the two largest parties Likud and Blue and White. This is doubtful. A broad based coalition may not be stable.

There is a very important point to be made. The Joint Arab List will not and
cannot join any Israeli government coalition Blue and White or any other one.

So counting them as part of the center left block is dishonest and wrong.

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More Oil Disruptions By Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I’ve Been Thinking:

Iran has made it clear. There will be no meeting between US President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani at the United Nations General Assembly in New York City at the end of September.

President Trump is saying the same thing. In speaking about “fake news” which, he says, is claiming that he wants to meet with Iran without conditions: “That is an incorrect statement as usual.”

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi called the possibility of a Trump/Rouhani meeting “speculation” and said “this meeting will not happen.”

Those statements come as a major relief for Israel. Hearing that Trump is not running to Iran means that Israel and the United States are still on the same page regarding Iran.

Iran is expanding plans to destabilize the West. Their attack on Saudi Arabia oil which reduced world output by 5% was intended as a crippling blow to the West.

Expect to see more of these disruptions.

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Israel's Elections
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is the eve of elections in Israel and we need to go over some ground rules.

Do not trust polls.

Elections in Israel - as in the United States, are not easy for pollsters to predict.

When polling results are as close as they now are, polls cannot be a good indicator. Yes, there are two larger parties and yes, there are several moderate size parties and yes, there are many smaller parties that are just on the cusp of getting Parlimentary seats. But does anyone needs polls for that information?

The real strength in Israel's elections is not with the party that wins the most seats. The real strength - and the power, sits with the party that joins the ruling coalition and holds out and gets what it wants.

The follow-up to the election is where the action is.

That is where we will, once again, witness the trading and the negotiating and the manipulation. And eventually, hopefully, we will see a government emerge.
If that doesn't happen - and I'm not sure it will, prepare for another election come January or February.

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Bolton Fired or Quit
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It does not matter whether John Bolton was fired or whether Bolton resigned.

The question is what kind of impact his departure will have on policy.
Bolton was a hawk on issues like North Korea and Iran. He did not believe that the US should run towards dialogue.

On the issue of Israel there is no doubt that the Netanyahu administration has lost a very close friend in the White House. Bolton was an unconditional ally and friend of Israel.

The difference between Bolton and the US president were obvious to everyone who monitored the White House. There is an important role for advisors who disagree with the president. But the National Security Advisor and the President need to step in tandem.

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Shiite Holy Day
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the Shiite holy day of Ashura. Ahsura means 10 in Arabic. Ashurah is the 10th day of the first month in the Muslim calendar, the month of Muharram.
It commemorates the battle of Karbala when the Husein ibn Ali the grandson of Mohammed was killed in 1060.

Shiites which means most Iranians and Hezbollah mourn on this day.

Speaking to all Shiites, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said he and his allies, including Iran, were in the middle of a "major campaign." He used military terminology to invoke a connection to the Battle of Karbala.

"We are in the midst of a major campaign, (and) the United States and Israel are trying to outflank us," he says in a speech to mark the Muslim holiday of Ashura.

"The leader of this camp is (Iranian Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei and its center is Iran," he said.

He added that "tonight and tomorrow we will tell (Benjamin) Netanyahu and (Donald) Trump that we are a people not affected by blockades, sanctions, poverty and hunger."

We will wait and see. It looks like they have a plan.

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More Rockets From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

September 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It’s been a weekend full of rockets in Israel.

On Sunday night sirens blared in the region that abuts the Gaza Strip. More rockets were being fired at Israel from Gaza.

One of the rockets fell short and it actually landed in Gaza. Several others, we don’t know exactly how many, landed in the Israel.

The situation has reached such a pitch that Egypt dispatched an emergency team of military and diplomatic advisers to Gaza. They will shuttle between Egypt, Gaza and Israel. The Egyptians want to become major players in the area. Keeping peace between Israel and Gaza would serve both to position them as influencers and to keep their own country safe.

To risk stating the obvious, this is a dangerous situation and could easily spiral into a larger and larger conflict. The situation needs to be controlled. It needs to be contained.


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MidEast Food Battle
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Another battle is being waged in the Middle East. The intensity keeps rising. This battle - is over food.

For years, Arabs have accused Israel of appropriating their food and making it "Israeli". They claim that falafel is not Israeli food, it is Arab food. They claim that humus is not Israeli, it is Arab food. The assertion is that just about any of the foods created by Israeli chefs, is in fact a rip off of Arab food.

Now labeneh, or laben, a goat cheese yogurt is on the proverbial chopping block.

Enemies of Israel say that Zionists should create their own culture, not expropriate it from the Arab culture that surrounds them. They are claiming that appropriating their foods is another example of Israeli occupation. Israelis, they say, are not only stealing Arab land and Arab culture, Israeli is stealing Arab - or Palestinian, food too.

Israeli chefs and Israel's culinary creativity have become world famous. And while many of the dishes borrow from the region, to suggest that Israeli Jews stole the culture is preposterous.

These attackers want Israel to be seen by the world as interlopers, replanted into the Middle East from Europe. But in reality, most Israelis are descendants of Jews from Arab lands - not from Europe.

Part of Israel's culture comes from Europe, but much more of Israeli culture, including food, originates in the Arab world.
Blending those traditions is what makes Israel so interesting and so very Israeli.

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Israel Worried about US/Iran Dialogue
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The G-7 meeting was very worrisome for Israel.

Let me explain. President Trump publicly announced that he would gladly meet with his Iranian counterpart President Rouhani.

Here is the worry.

If the United States advances toward Iran in a path similar to the paths the US has taken with North Korea, it will mean that dialoguing with Iran will become a priority. It will weaken Israel's ability to influence the US.

More importantly, Israel has a series of priorities for their country's security. There are certain red lines in the sand that Israel wants to make certain the US does not cross with Iran.

This situation, this diplomatic warming between the United States and Iran, is not good news for Israel.

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Tensions Btw Israel & Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 27, 2019
I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are rising between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Add into the mix the terror group The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, also known as PFLP - GC and the tensions are pulsing even higher.

There are obvious reasons for these tensions. Hezbollah and the PFLP are sworn enemies of Israel and their raison-d'ĂŞtre is the destruction of Israel.

But of late there has been serious Israeli engagement in Lebanon and Syria. The groups are shouting about it. They are saber rattling.

Several important points of clarification - These groups do not awaken one day and hate Israel more than they did the day before.

Hezbollah has at least150,000 rockets. That is a conservative estimate. They have more rockets than 95% of the militaries in the world. Many of those are short range unguided rockets but a significant number are guided missiles with long range capabilities.

Another important point to make is that the Israeli elections are upon us. The will take place on September 17. Prime Minster is being portrayed as weak in Gaza by other contenders because he has not acted in Gaza. There is no magic solution to Gaza. So, Netanyahu has to show strength. He is attacking in Lebanon and Syria where it is easier to strike.

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Muslim Edict Against US Soldiers
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A fatwah is an Islamic edict declared by a leading authority.

Shiite theologian Grand Ayatollah Kazi al Haeri is held in very high regard by Iraqi Shiites. And he has declared a fatwah forbidding US troops to step foot in Iraq.

Grand Ayatollah Kazi al Haeri called on Iraqi forces to attack and stop all US forces.

The edict comes after media from all over the world covered stories that described Israel's attack on Shiite bases in Iraq - bases that are affiliated with Iran. Two Israeli officials confirmed that Israel was responsible for the attacks.

Many locals in the Middle East do not countenance any non-believers anywhere in the Middle East - not in any Arab lands.

The US brings out vicious animus in some people.

Over the years there have been numerous fatwahs involving the United States. This Grand Ayatollah is not alone.

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Saudis Track Hajj Pilgrims w Chip
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has announced that they are instituting a smart chip for everyone joining the Hajj - the annual pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca.

Over 2.5 people, or pilgrims, travel to Mecca every year.

For many pilgrims, the chip will certainly be considered an invasion of their privacy. It will allow the organizers to monitor all movements of all participants. The chip can detect mass movements. It can rearrange and reorganize transportation.

The chip can and will also direct and redirect people and police to provide a more efficient movement.

It will also track where people are sleeping and what they are doing. Every person who enters will be tracked.

There is a positive side for the 2.5 million people who will now be tracked - the chip can help in health emergencies and get immediate aid to people in distress.

The Saudis know this chip works. They quietly tested it out this year and it was a great success.

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How to Tell an Anti- Semite
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A nonsensical school of thought has been making its way into all sorts of forums and discussions. It goes like this: Criticizing Israel is not anti-Semitic. Don't label every criticism and critic of Israel an anti-Semite. As an example, proponents of this erroneous thinking will point to former President Barack Obama and say that Obama was a great lover of Israel, but he was also a vocal critic. He would say "friends need to call friends out when they make mistakes."

That may be true, but - and it's a big and important but - some people couch their anti- Semitism as criticism of Israel.

There are two factors that determine if the person criticizing Israel is an anti-Semite.

#1: does the critique allow for Israel to exist or does it suggest that if Israel were not there the problem would be solved

#2: the tone of the critique

Tone is everything. Critique is done with respect and love and is immediately identifiable. That kind of critique does not seek to harm or destroy but rather to help and assist.

Much of the recent and very vocal public criticism of Israel does not stand up to these factors. Certainly, US Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib fits into the category of anti-Semite.

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Is Israel Bombing Iraq- Maybe!
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday, an arms depot north of Baghdad was blown up. The depot was hit by an aerial strike. It belonged to an Iraqi, pro-Iranian militia. Last week, an arms depot south of Baghdad, also belonging to pro-Iranian fighters, was also destroyed by an airstrike.

Sounds like someone is targeting Iranian fighters in Iraq.

The finger is pointing toward Israel.

Israel has, over the past few years, publicly warned of the Iranian influence in Iraq and has insisted that Iran is becoming a major military force inside Iraq.

Israel now has stealth capabilities. They operate F-35s which can travel without being detected. So it is certainly possible, if not probable, that Israel is testing out its efficiency and abilities by hitting Iranian bases in Iraq.

This is not a new front for Israel, it is an experiment. And while perfecting their capabilities, they are also effectively clipping and trimming Iranian influence and Iranian weapons caches.

Iran is an arch enemy of Israel. At this stage Israel will not strike Iran directly. However, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are fair game.

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Iran Made Mistake Signing Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Shamkhani is a very close and trusted adviser of Iran's Supreme Leader. He is an official in the inner circle of Iran.

Lester Holt of NBC News sat down for a face-to-face with someone who almost never addresses the West and is as close as you can get to the Grand Ayatollah.

In the course of the interview Shamkhani said that Iran should never have signed the famous JCPOA, simply known as the Iranian nuke deal.

He said that it was not good for Iran. He also explained that, at the time, there were people who believed that a moderate approach was the best avenue to pursue.

He said that most of Iran, and certainly Iranian leadership, fervently believes that the entire strategy was a mistake and that Iran has suffered because of that moderate approach.

What Shamkhani is actually doing is telegraphing is the ouster of the current leadership, the President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif who were the architects of the agreement.

Shamkhani agreed to the interview only after he received the okay from the Supreme Leader, who also crafted the message he wanted to have presented and provided Shamkhani with his talking points.

There are big political changes on the horizon in Iran.

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ISIS is Alive & Well
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The suicide bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan which murdered 63 people and wounded 183 others is rock solid proof that ISIS is alive and well.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the bombing at the Shiite wedding celebration.

This is what they do best.

They are mass murderers of Muslims.

That might sounds strange because we, in the West, think of ISIS as targeting the West. While that is true, their main objective of ISIS is to intimidate and influence Muslims in the Muslim world.

ISIS announced the reason for their attack in Kabul. They said they attacked because the United States was negotiating a deal with the
Taliban and establishing an end to the 18 year old conflict in Afghanistan.

This bombing was a message to Muslims.

ISIS is back and alive and well and if you dare to stand up and oppose ISIS, you will be targeted - beware, you’ve been warned.

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UK Strips Jihadi Jack's Citizenship
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jack Letts is best known as Jihadi Jack, a dual UK / Canadian citizen who joined ISIS in 2014. Two years before joining, Jack had converted to Islam. In 2014 he changed his name to Abu Mohammed, married an Iraqi woman had a child.

Abu Mohammed has been interviewed on the BBC, pledging his allegiance to ISIS and promising to fight for the cause.

His parents sent him $300 and were subsequently tried and convicted of sponsoring terror. He claims he bought falafel and a pair of glasses with the money - not nuclear weapons.

Now Jack Letts cum Abu Mohammed cum Jihadi Jack wants to return to the UK.

The British Home Office not only said no - they stripped Jack of his UK citizenship and said he is Canada's problem now.

Meanwhile, Canada says that Jihadi Jack has no real contact with Canada and is a Canadian citizen only by virtue of his father, an organic farmer, who holds a Canadian passport.

The UK is correct to reject him.

Jihadi Jack must live with his decision.

Joining the enemy and fighting against your home country is treasonous and an act of sedition. It is easier to pull citizenship than to try someone as a traitor. Let Jack live in the community he selected when he abandoned his home and chose instead to take up arms against the country that nurtured him.

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Israel Denies Entry to US Congresswomen
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I usually touch on subjects before they become headline news, but today I am making an exception. Today I must weigh in on the news of the day.

Israel deciding not to permit entry to two United States Congresswomen.

As everyone knows, the two members of Congress in question are Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, the first Muslim females in Congress.

On their trip to Israel the Congresswomen wanted to focus only on Palestinian sites and interests. They scheduled no visits with
Israeli officials or, for that matter, any Israelis. Actually, in their invite to other members of Congress they explained that they were only entering Israel in order to pass into Palestine.

Both these members of Congress have proposed a bill to support BDS.

Israel has passed a law permitting leadership to prevent entry to those people who are known supporters of BDS.

I do not think it was wise of Israel to prevent entry to the Congresswomen - BUT, Israel was certainly justified in blocking them from entering the country.

All those who claim that Israel was violating freedom of speech are totally incorrect.

There is a limit to freedom of speech. That freedom stops when people are trying to destroy a state. The state - any state has the right and the responsibility, to protect itself against those advancing against it and attacking it.

BDS is not an idea. BDS is not an issue of speech. BDSers intend to galvanize supporters to unite and destroy Israel.

About that there is no question.

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Israel's Anti Drone Drones
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Drones are extremely difficult to defend against and now, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries named ELTA Systems has improved on their already very effective Drone Guard.

This improvement is called the Bird. One of the many advances the Bird has over the Drone Guard is a suicide mission that attacks incoming drones.

The new system identifies the drone or set of drones from take off.
It even predicts the direction the enemy drone will take. This system differentiates the incoming drone from other aircraft. Even if the other drone tries to deceive it with balloons, kites, hot air, even if it uses live ammo and shoots. The Bird knows it is a drone.

The Bird also employs the Drone guard technology of zapping enemy drones with electronic beams and rays that will cause the enemy system to implode.

Best of all is technology that enables the Bird to hijack enemy drones.

A new cyber war is taking place. ELTA's Bird is a major player in that war.

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Hamas Claims
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Speaking at an Eid al Adha ceremony, the head of Hamas, Yihya Sinwar, said that Hamas will teach Israel a lesson if it invades Gaza again.
Sinwar emphasized that Hamas will launch hundreds of rockets into Israel simultaneously. Israel, he said, will be broken.

"If Israel launches a campaign in Gaza, hundreds of rockets will be fired at Israeli cities in one go ... Hamas will break the IDF if it enters the Gaza Strip."

This is bravado, it is hyperbole.

Hamas really believes that they will strike and seriously hurt Israel - but it is pure bravado, hyperbole.

In Israel, any loss is a huge loss.

It is Hamas and Gaza who will suffer if Israel is forced to attack Gaza again.

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Caspian Oil Battle
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The five nations that surround the oil rich Caspian Sea (or Lake) met on Monday to figure out how to divide the great natural wealth - oil, that lies there.

Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan all have a stake. Russia and Iran are most insecure about what might happen.

Because of that insecurity they have not ratified an agreement that was drawn up last year. The other three countries are waiting for Russia and Iran to make the first moves and sign.

Both Iran and Russia are afraid that this newly found oil will change the supply of oil on the world market. They are particularly worried about Western countries that are urging the construction of a Caspian natural gas pipeline that will bring that oil over land to the West, especially Western Europe.

Iran and Russia need to preserve their reserves, keep the supply down and make certain the prices of oil and gas stay high.

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Muslim Holiday
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the Muslim holiday of Eid al Adha. It is the Festival of the Sacrifice, also called Eid al Qurban.

Eid al Adha is one of two big Muslim holidays, the other is Eid al Fitr.

This holiday commemorates the story in the Koran of Ibrahim taking his son Ishmael and offering him as a sacrifice to God. At the last minute God stops Ibrahim and provides a lamb that is sacrificed instead of Ishmael.

If this sounds eerily similar to the story of Abraham and Isaac in Genesis chapter 21, that's because they are, indeed, the same story.

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Iran Claims Military Greatness
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is masterful at propping themselves up as undefeatable.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Naval Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi spoke to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, and said that: "Americans have always been the ultimate and full-scale losers in all their encounters with the IRGCN [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy], and the most notable cases of their defeats were on April 14, 1988, and January 12, 2016 before their drone was shot down on June 20."

Fadavi was referring to three incidents:
#1: the April 1988 incident when an Iranian mine badly damaged the U.S. frigate Samuel B. Roberts
#2: Iran's kidnapping in January 2016 of two American riverine boats and ten sailors after the boats mistakenly strayed into Iranian waters
#3: the downing in June 2019 of the US Triton drone

Fadavi continued and said: "that all failures and defeats of the U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf are illustrative of the Americans' desperation, frustration, and agony in the face of the Iranian nation in the past 40 years."

This is simply - and not surprisingly, not what happened at all.
In 1988 the US responded, launching Operation Praying Mantis and crippling Iran's navy. Luckily the situation deescalated and did not turn into a full blown war.

As far as Fadavi's other two examples, the United States wisely chose to neither react nor overreact.

It's all about the spin.

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ISIS Re Booting in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Here's a surprise. ISIS is re-establishing itself in Syria. Don't just take my word for it, a report released this week by the US Department of Defense Inspector General's office spells it out very clearly.

"Despite losing its territorial 'caliphate,' the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) solidified its insurgent capabilities in Iraq and was resurging in Syria" from April through June.

The report begins with Principal Deputy Inspector General Glenn A.
Fine writing that from April through June, U.S. forces in Syria fulfilled the Trump administration's directive to partly withdraw from the country. Military officials told the inspector general's office that "the reduction of U.S. forces has decreased the support available for Syrian partner forces at a time when their foces [sic] need more training and equipping to respond to the ISIS resurgence."

Officials told the inspector general's office that ISIS continues to function as an insurgency in both Iraq and Syria partly because forces there "remain unable to sustain long-term operations against ISIS militants." ISIS is also "likely reestablishing financial networks in both countries."

Beyond that, military officials warned, ISIS "maintains an extensive worldwide social media effort to recruit fighters."

This means that ISIS is bouncing back.

It also means that ISIS is waging war against US allies and others who targeted them. Are you surprised?

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Iran is Jamming Ships' GPS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is playing dirty tricks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. For one, they are jamming the GPS of tankers, causing ships to wander off course - and in to their waters. They are also spoofing and radioing as if they are friendly and US navy ships.

US Central Command in the area, known as CENTCOM, said in a statement that Iran "spoofed bridge-to-bridge communications from unknown entities falsely claiming to be US or coalition warships."

"Due to the heightened regional tensions, the potential for miscalculation or misidentification could lead to aggressive actions against vessels belonging to US, allied and coalition partners operating in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman ... GPS interference, bridge-to-bridge communications spoofing, and/or other communications jamming with little to no warning."

Bridge-to-bridge communication is when ships speak to one another.

Jamming and spoofing by Iran explains quite a lot of what has been happening in the Strait. Iran is not playing a fun game. And as always, the Iranians are playing by their own rules.

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Amazon Coming to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Amazon is going to open operations in Israel in September - before the September 17th elections which falls a few days before the eve of Rosh Hashanah.

Amazon wants the site to be all in Hebrew.

Amazon has very stringent demands on writing, pictures and clarity of message. They are also very precise about handling and delivery. If it cannot happen in Hebrew, they will launch in English and then switch over to Hebrew. If everything is not in place and ready by September, Amazon will wait until after Sukkot and launch in November in time for the busy shopping period called Black Friday.

Amazon has already gobbled up several Israeli tech companies including a huge cloud service.

This is huge for Israel.

Having Amazon will be a huge boon in the local markets of delivery and move Israel's markets to an entirely new level. It will also devastate brick and mortar store fronts and ma and pa stores in Israel as it has done around the world. The competition will force Israel's big retailers and chain stores, including food stores, to up their game and move into internet sales.

Change can be great, change can also be very scary.

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Palestinian GPS Around Check Points
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A Palestinian tech company named Doroob created and app that can be downloaded through Google that will avoid Israeli check points and the long lines and waits that are involved.

The root D Ra Ba is found 58 times in the Koran. It's mentioned as Yadriba or as the noun Doroob and it means "to set forth."

Doroob Navigation uses crowd sourcing so people use their phones and the GPS to show where traffic in building up and to offer get updates and preferred routes.

Doroob operates much like Waze and Google Maps. But those systems were not very effective in the Palestinian areas - and this one is.

This company made their own maps and their own program.

Many check points are permanent, others change all the time. The IDF does that for security reasons. Although not its primary purpose, this program helps terrorists avoid the check points.

The IDF will have to work hard to stay out in front of this new software.

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Left Can't Oust Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The media is spending much energy showing how Israel's left and center left parties are trying to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

They are offering up a valiant set of descriptions - but their cause is hopeless.

All studies show that fewer and fewer Israelis connect with the left -- 12%.
In fact, in Israel, more and more voters lean right than left -- 59%.

Actually, the left numbers are almost as low as the numbers for those who simply do not care.

That does not mean that Bibi cannot be ousted ... Just unlikely.

Avigdor Lieberman is convinced that he can oust Netanyahu by creating a swing party. He thinks that his party will be big enough to make them essential to any coalition and that they will then decide if they want to take the government left or right.

Lieberman decided that Likud, Netanyahu's party, should select a number two. That way Netanyahu can step down when Lieberman - once again - refuses to join with Likud under Bibi Netanyahu.

Lieberman is also threatening to go to join the left. That is an empty threat. His voters are hardcore right and hard core secular. Lieberman's supporters would never countenance the moderate points of view of the Blue and White party.

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J.Lo in Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

J.LO - Jennifer Lopez, performed in Tel Aviv on Thursday to a crowd of 50,000 admirers.

The performer, her fiance A Rod and her twin daughters spent five days in Israel. The performance was part of J.Lo's "It's My Party Tour" that they turned into a family vacation.

While in Israel, they visited the Western Wall, took in Tel Aviv culture and generally enjoyed their time. There were great shots of her on the Tel Aviv Beach.

Tremendous pressure was put on the world famous dancer-actress-performer not to accept the invitation to bring her show to Israel and then later, to cancel her trip. The BDS movement has been successful in intimidating many performers - but not this time.

J.LO is only one of two A-list performers who have come to Israel - the second is Bon Jovi.

J.LO posted dozens of selfies and family pictures. She declared how wonderful Israel and Israelis are. She said that she would be back.

JLO has 100 million followers on social media. She is more than a star, just like her fiance is more than a former baseball player.
They are icons. They are idolized. J.LO and A Rod's trip and their posts reinforced for Israelis that they are part of world culture.

This past year Israel has felt beaten up and abused on the international scene. BDS has been very effective. JLO helped invigorate Israel. She accomplished more for the case for Israel than any diplomatic initiative or PR campaign could have achieved.

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Japan Won't Help in the Strait
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has been working on creating a coalition of countries to patrol the Strait of Hormuz.

It should seem like the obvious thing to do - the Strait of Hormuz is now the most dangerous maritime region in the world. And responsibility for that lies totally and completely on Iran's aggressive maneuvers in trying to exert influence on Western policy and force the United States and other countries to reconsider the sanctions that have been crippling the country.

Without a broad based world coalition, a true defense strategy to protect the oil tankers using the waterway will fail. A broad coalition is both a practical and public relations necessity. It is the only way to condemn Iran effectively.

And yet, there is opposition. Japan has said that they will not join.
They are afraid that it may trigger a war. Japan has said that they may escort their own ships (highly unlikely) and that they will provide airplanes to assist in monitoring the Strait.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said that they: "... are closely monitoring the situation and continue to collect information while working closely with the United States and other countries."

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Iran's Economy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The currency of Iran is the rial.

The most recent US sanctions against Iran have hurt Iran badly.

The economy of Iran is suffering.

In order to survive the tremendous inflation they are suffering, Iranian leadership has decided to lop off four zeroes from the rial.

Iran's inflation is so high, we have no idea how high it really is. There are official inflation numbers of 30%, but we know those numbers aren't true. Unofficial numbers put Iran's inflation at 1,000% - that's one thousand percent.

The announcement about the rial was made by the Iranian government spokesman after a government meeting.

To get a sense of what has happened to the rial and the economy of Iran let's look at the rial over the past 4 years. In 2015 $1 was worth 32,000 rials. Today the official exchange rate is 120,000 to $1.

Wow!

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Lieberman's Demands
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 31, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Avigdor Lieberman, the head of Yisrael Beitaynu, declared that the only way for his party to join the next coalition would be that will demand three points.

#1: There must be a mandatory draft for the ultra -orthodox.

#2: Public transport must be accessible on Shabbat.

#3: Civil marriages must be permitted and instituted.

These demands signify that, almost certainly, Yisrael Beitaynu will not be part of the next government.

It also means that the right needs to gather the required 60 members of government without Lieberman's party which is one of the right-wing parties.

We do not know how many seats Yisrael Beitaynu will earn in the September election. But we do know that the reason there is a second election taking place in September is because Lieberman refused to join the Netanyahu coalition in April, thereby torpedoing the possibility for Netanyahu to form a government.

In the end - what did he really gain?

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Turkey Lashes Out Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Turkey is once again lashing out against Israel.

Erdogan never misses an opportunity to attack Israel. This time he went out of his way to attack Israel without any reason or provocation.

At a meeting with provincial officials, as reported on Press TV in Turkey, Erdogan went on his rant.

He said: "Whoever is on the side of Israel, let everyone know that we are against them ... We do not approve of silence on the state terror that Israel blatantly carries out in Palestine."

This is more than a policy dispute. This is Erdogan drawing up teams and threatening discipline for those who break ranks with him.

While many barriers have broken down between Israel and other countries over the past two years, Turkey wants to turn back the clock.

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Iranian Youth Search www
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian youth works very hard to break through their government's block on the internet.

The government has shut down almost all forms of contact and any access to the West through the internet - the World Wide Web, aka the www. The Iranian web is a cheap facsimile of the www.

Iranians who want to jump on the West's www have gone to great lengths. They spend hours attempting to bypass governmental blocks.

The youth use VPNs, or Virtual Personal Networks. VPN artificially makes it appear as if the user were located someone else.

Here's how: Let's say you live in Teheran. When you go online, you click onto a VPN and it shows that you are in Los Angeles. The Iranian can now surf the net, and no one will know.

The bigger problem is that VPNs are overloaded. So many people want to get on that it can take an hour before you get on and that many users causes the server to be slow and users to be regularly bounced off.

Iranian leadership does not have the same restrictions. Iran's president and foreign minister tweet constantly - even the Supreme Leader, or at least the Supreme Leader's office, tweets regularly.

Iranians use the internet because they want to learn what is happening in the West. That's a good sign.

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Iran is Petrified of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is petrified of Israel's new stealth F-35. Israel has already flown the planes over Iran.

A Kuwaiti newspaper reported about it.

According to an "informed source" quoted by the newspaper Al-Jarida: "The fighters crossed Syrian airspace into Iraqi airspace, including to Iran, where they carried out reconnaissance missions and targets in the areas of Bandar Abbas, Isfahan and Shiraz, flying at a high altitude over other sites suspected of a relationship with Iran's nuclear program".

Iran did not detect the F-35. Neither did the Russians. This F-35 is a secret weapon. This worries Iran, but it is not their only worry.

Israel's character worries Iranian leadership even more than the weapon. The Israeli military is bold and tends toward quick and decisive action. That, combined with the F-35, is a real threat to Iran.

Israel can and will strike Iran if necessary - and Iran knows it.

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Barak Merge with Meretz
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli elections are coming up and the final lists for each party are due in two weeks.

The most curious of all lists will be the result of a speculated merger between Israel Democratic Party leader Ehud Barak and Meretz chair Nitzan Horowitz.

Meretz is the most left Jewish party on the electoral spectrum. Barak is a former prime minister and former leader of the Labor Party.

This potential merger will take voters away from both the Blue and White Party and the Labor Party.

Israel Democratic Party and Meretz are trying to create a genuine left. The problem is that the Israeli electorate is center right - not center left or left anymore. And that will almost certainly translate into failure for this merger at the ballot box.

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Israel Keeps The Lid on The MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

As I mentioned yesterday, Israel's Foreign Ministry invited Arab bloggers to Israel. In the end, six bloggers visited Israel.

They guests of the foreign ministry met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During their meeting the PM told them that actually, Israel is keeping the region safer.

Netanyahu said: "but within the region, Israel is the irreplaceable power, because there is no other power in the region that without its presence and activity here, I would say the region would collapse ... Without Israel, without the things we do, the things we stand for and the things we protect, I think the entire Middle East would collapse by the forces of Islamic radicalism, whether Shiites led by Iran, or Sunni radicalism led by the Islamic State."

The prime minister continued, saying that Israel "is the one indigenous force in the Middle East that prevents the collapse of the Middle East."

I have not thought about it until now. Prime Minister Netanyahu is correct.

Israel keeps the lid on so many issues. Without Israel, Islamic extremism would have taken over major swaths of the Middle East. And then the world.

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Saudi Blogger in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Foreign Ministry of Israel is hosting a group of bloggers from Arab and Muslim countries. We do not know how many bloggers came on the trip - but we do know that one of them is Muhammad Saud from Saudi Arabia.

Saud is a very popular blogger. Saud is also fluent in Hebrew.

Like any good Muslim, Saud wanted to visit the Dome of the Rock. He dressed in traditional Saudi religious garb and ascended the Mount.

Locals were not pleased. Some people threw chairs at him. Video shows Saud standing at the Dome of the Rock when one youngster ran up to him, grabbed his arm and spit in his face.

This was not part of the Foreign Ministry's objective in bringing the bloggers to Israel.

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Shaked Can Unite the Right
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Former Israeli Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked and her political colleague and party member Naftali Bennett had a meeting. It was agreed upon that Shaked will become the head of their party, The New Right Party, and that they will work to unite the entire right wing community behind her.

In Israel, many religious parties fall under the right wing umbrella. And some rabbinic voices are suggesting that a woman - certainly a non-religious woman, cannot lead the religious parties.

The problem with that point of view is that Ayelet Shaked is, by far, the best and most significant force in the right wing world and probably the only person capable of bringing the right together.

Shaked has national presence. She has experience. She has been successful in maneuvering and navigating around Bibi and his government. She is the best shot they have. The question is - will they give her the chance?

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Iran Takes Another UK Tanker
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched the video of Iranian commando rappelling from a helicopter onto the Stena Imperio owned by Stena Bulk, a British oil tanker.

The 90 second video was spliced together from several cameras. At least two of the videos were taken by the small Iranian boats that surrounded the oil tanker and one from inside the helicopter as the five commandos jumped out.

It was impressive. The operation took only a few seconds.

Iran has stepped up their game. This is the second UK ship they have taken. And just as Iran is stepping up their game, an Iranian ship that was in the Port of Jedda was released. The ship, which suffered from engine trouble, was being held by the Saudis. After its release the Iranians publically thanked the Saudis.

It is the long game here that is important.

Iran is becoming more and more brazen. But with each move they push Europe and others closer to US President Donald Trump. They are effectively unifying the world around Trump - a leader they would normally reject.

Right now the game is on. Iran is playing very seriously. The West's counter move may or may not be commensurate with Iran's moves. We should know soon.

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Iran Proposes a Compromise
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has offered a very nice deal to the US. It goes in both directions.

In New York Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said that Iran will permanently permit enhanced inspections. While at the same time the US will permanently lit all sanctions against Iran.

Zarif said that the Iranian offer was a good deal it was "a substantial move."

Zarif continued that "It's not about photo ops. We are interested in substance," he told reporters at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York on Thursday. "There are other substantial moves that can be made."

He said: "If they [the Trump administration] are putting their money where their mouth is, they are going to do it. They don't need a photo op. They don't need a two-page document with a big signature."

Zarif is calling Trumps bluff.


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Shelly Leaves Labor
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The politician who has been the back bone of Israel's Labor Party for the past 15 years announced that she is taking time out from politics.

Her name is Shelly Yachimovitich and she has been the most successful of all Labor politicians for the past 15 years.

Not only has Shelly been the backbone of Labor, she has also been Labor's heart and their soul.

The April election proved that the fire that once fueled Labor has dimmed and is about to be extinguished. The party is a shell of what it once was and Yachimovitich, who almost single-handedly kept the party alive and relevant, no longer has the burning desire to fight for change the way she once did.

Shelly as she was known - her first name was all she needed, came to politics after a long and successful career in media. She was the most popular radio talk show host in the country. Shelly affected change through her media platform. Then she left the media and joined Labor in order to better bring change to Israel.

Shelly's departure is another example of the death of the once great Labor party.

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Hezbollah & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 17, 2019
I've Been Thinking:

Last week Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah issued a warning to Israel and a description of what was to come.

With the warning Nasrallah informed Israel that Hezbollah rockets could hit anywhere in Israel. And then he went on to describe, more or less, where the attacks would take place.
In response, Israel bolstered 20 strategic targets.

Certainly Israel has the ability to respond to Hezbollah attacks, but that is not enough. They must secure their important sites again missiles. With the passage of time missiles become more powerful, their range becomes longer and their accuracy increases.

It would be irresponsible of Israel not to take the threat by Hezbollah seriously. Back in 2016, after an official assessment, Israel allocated 150 million shekel ($43 million) to improve the security on these 20 strategic sites. Attacks on these sites could cause serious damage and certainly inconvenience to Israelis.

It would also be irresponsible of Hezbollah to attack Israel's sensitive sites because Israel would counter attack - and counter attack very seriously.

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Hamas: Murder the Jews Everywhere
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

In the middle of his recent Friday sermon, a fiery charismatic Hamas Sheik named Fathi Hamad shouted that Arabs should murder Jews all over the world. He demanded that followers murder Jews in Israel and everywhere else.

A few days later Ahmed Yosef, who has a direct line to Hamas leader
Ismail Haniyeh, publicly condemned Hamad for calling for the murder of all Jews.

Yosef said: "The language of knives and explosive belts is not suitable for statesmen ... And the talk of killing Jews using this kind of language contradicts religion and morality."

Yosef continued: "Hamas is not against world Jewry, and not even against Judaism as a religion."

This exchange is illustrative of an important issue.

Traditionally, Palestinians terrorists struck out against Western targets, and, of course, against Jewish targets. Particularly in Europe. Then they changed course, turned inward, and focused on Israel only.

Today we are witnessing a conflict between the two perspectives and focus of Palestinian terror. There are those who still believe that Jews around the world should be murdered and those who believe in targeting only Israeli Jews.

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Why is Russia so Involved?
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Ever wonder why Russia is so involved in the Middle East and so committed to Iran?

I'll explain:

First and foremost, there is a significant Muslim population in Russia. And Russia needs to placate their citizens. There has been some Russian / Muslim tension and it is important to tamp it down.

Next is that the United States has significant influence in the region. And for Russia, it is very important to keep US interests in check. It is that attitude alone that informs large swaths of Russian foreign policy.

Third comes proximity. Russia itself, is actually located in the region. Their former states are even closer, extremely close, to Iran and to the entire Middle East.

Finally, Russia and Iran are linked economically. They are enormous oil producers. Russia is also a huge provider of much of what Iran needs.


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Hezbollah Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah went public today outlining the next conflict with Israel.

Nasrallah announced: "In the next war with Israel we will have surprises in land, air and sea." He went on and explained that "the resistance" which means perpetrators of terror and his own forces can reach "the whole of Israel until Eilat." Eilat is the southern-most part of Israel.

There was more. Nasrallah said he is "confident of victory" and confident that "Israel is weaker than a spider web ... Life and death are in the hands of God, yet logic points to me praying in al-Aqsa mosque."

Nasrallah described how Hezbollah could strike "sensitive targets" in the southern and northern Israel. 'In a next war with us, Israel will be fighting for its existence ... and I will be praying in Jerusalem".
The comments were made during an interview on Al-Manar TV, the Hezbollah TV cable station.

Explaining that Hezbollah is not afraid even though Israel has previously killed many Hezbollah members and will target them, he said: "Hezbollah is an organization that doesn’t depend on anyone ... There were those who died and those who left the organization, and it didn't affect us."

Nasrallah cautioned that Hezbollah will target the city centers: "There's no need for us to harm soldiers. Instead of wasting missiles on the north, we will attack the south ... "We'll bring Israel back to the Stone Age."

Explaining one of his targets Nasrallah explained that: "Israel tried to get rid of the ammonia tanks in Haifa and did not succeed. We only need a couple of rockets to hit these tanks, and the number of fatalities will be very large, even Israelis themselves say that."

The leader of Hezbollah emphasized that: "Everything I've presented is the minimum of our abilities. It's important to me that Israelis understand that."

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu responded very quickly to Nasrallah's remarks by saying: "Over the weekend we heard Nasrallah's remarks on his attack plans. It should be clear that if Hezbollah dares to do some nonsense and attacks Israel, we will hit him and Lebanon with a crushing military blow."

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Make Israel Normal Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The election in Israel will be held on September 17th.
After the April election, Avigdor Lieberman was the man responsible for preventing Benjamin Netanyahu from creating the coalition government he needed to cinch the position of prime minister - thereby forcing the new election.

On Thursday Lieberman and his party, Y'Israel Beitenu (Israel is Our Home), released a campaign ad that unveils a new slogan.
The 30 second video which was released via Twitter runs under the phrase "This is not Las Vegas." The ad cuts to a slot machine with photos of Netanyahu's potential coalition partners and labels them all as extremists. Next comes a derogatory comment about potential coalition members if the Blue and White party were to win.

The ad finishes with a flourish. In white letters, against a blue background, with a blood red exclamation point for added emphasis - and in English - is the phrase "Make Israel Normal Again!"

The allusion to Donald Trump's "Make American Great Again" slogan is obvious. The substitution of the word "normal" is critical. Normalcy is a political and defense condition Israelis yearn for.

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Israeli Arab High Jumper Represents Israel- Called a Traitor
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Hanin Nasser is an Israel Arab, she is also Israel's best female high jumper. Nasser will represent Israel in the European Athletic U23 Championships.

And that upsets some Arabs.

Hirak Haifa, a group of Israeli Arab activists, is pressuring Hanin Nasser to back out of the competition. They went public with a statement. This is how it read:

"We condemn her representation of the Zionist entity that uprooted our people and is using her as a fig leaf to cover up the racism and crimes of Israel."

The group also sent a personal note to Nasser asking her not to represent Israel.

What frightens haters more than anything else is normalization. In their narrow world, freedom and democracy are treated as treason.

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Israel Stopped 50 Terror Attacks Worldwide
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem Post published a report yesterday informing us that the Mossad has announced that Israel prevented and intercepted 50 terror attacks by Iran and ISIS over the past 3 years.

Twelve of those attacks were planned for Turkey. Some were halted at the very last minute.

Turkey's relations with Israel have been very rough since 2010. That's when a Turkish aid ship, part of a flotilla, was boarded by Israeli commandos.

Turkish President Erdogan has been a vocal critic of Israel at almost every turn.

And yet, despite the vitriol being spewed against them, Israel is convinced that helping stop terror everywhere is the right thing to do. Israel's leadership also believes that these connections will help Israel further improve relations with countries all around the world.

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Israeli Plans For Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's moves to increase the enrichment of their uranium has upset the countries who signed on to the now infamous deal with Iran.

It appears that the deal has no teeth. That there is no way to force Iran to comply with the deal.

Additionally, this deal leaves Israel in a very precarious situation.

Questions arise. How will Israel respond to the new threats?

It should be perfectly clear to everyone that this assertive move by Iran is, first and foremost, a direct threat against Israel. And then it is a threat to the rest of the Western world. But location is everything and Israel is in the neighborhood - in the target zone, in the cross hairs, of Iran.

Israel has a history of interceding when it perceives threats to be developing. In 1981 Israel attacked and destroyed the nuclear reactor in Iraq. In 2007 Israel attacked and destroyed the nuclear center in Syria.

If Iran pushes too hard, Israel may very likely strike Iran's nuclear system.

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Why Generals Are Running Against Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Have you ever wondered why so many generals are vying for political leadership in Israel?

One former general cum present contender was the most decorated Israeli general ever. Another was the head of the Mossad, another the head of internal security and another was chief of staff of the IDF.

Ostensibly the argument is that these former generals want to protect Israel and disagree with Prime Minister Netanyahu's point of view on safety and security. But that's not really true.

The truth is that these generals want to trade in their name recognition for political power and ultimate control.

They may disagree with Netanyahu about a two-state solution or about how harsh to be with Iran, but on most of these topics they are on the same pages with only nuanced difference.

They all worked for Bibi and now they want to oust him. They think that their IDF experience will win over the Israeli masses and lure them away from a leader they perceive to be a demagogue and a danger to Israel.

They want to save Israel from Bibi Netanyahu. And each of these generals wants to be the person who replaces him.

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J.Lo in Tel Aviv Aug 1
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jennifer Lopez, J. Lo to her fans, will perform in Tel Aviv on August 1st. The Tel Aviv concert is part of a sold out, 30 concert tour, entitled "It's My Party." The tour began in Las Vegas.

Accompanying Lopez on her trip to Israel will be her fiance, New York Yankee legend Alex Rodriguez, aka A Rod.

BDS supporters are applying tremendous pressure. Their goal is to prevent the concert by forcing force J Lo to cancel.

In a letter BDS supporters wrote: "Boycott! Supporting the Palestinian BDS call from within".

The letter described the Israeli "government's policies of oppression, occupation, apartheid and ethnic cleansing against the indigenous Palestinian people."

"To understand why we are writing you, we would like to start off by saying that, much like Sun City in South Africa under the apartheid regime, the city of Tel Aviv, where you are about to perform, is used as a tool for marketing the State of Israel as a 'cool' and 'cultured' democracy, while hiding a brutal history of colonization, even that of the city itself".

A Rod's responded to the letter by saying in an interview: "I'm going to Israel, so I am so excited, it's my first time."

So far the performer and her celebrity fiance are standing strong against the BDS pressure. If they do not succumb, J Lo and A Rod will witness - with their own eyes, the wonders of Israel. They will understand the lies BDS is spreading. And this concert and their trip will be an inspiration for those who are curious about Israel and for the many lovers of Israel constantly libeled by BDS canards.

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Erdogan Offers to Mediate
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered to mediate the conflict between the United States and Iran. He said that he wanted to help ease the tensions that continue to ratchet up between the two countries.

Erdogan made his suggestion at the G-20 meeting in a conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Surprising as it may seem, it is actually a very good idea.

Erdogan is perfectly positioned to mediate. He is distrusted by both parties - and yet, he is also close with both parties. Erdogan shares strategic economic objectives with both the United States and Iran.

I look forward to hearing the responses - if any, of both the United States and Iran to Erdogan's gesture.

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UN:Miss Iraq Says She Loves Irsrael
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Former Miss Iraq Sarah Idan and former Miss Israel Adar Gandelsman are friends. Their relationship began in 2017 at the Miss Universe competition.

Ms. Idan posted a picture of herself with Ms. Gandelsman and wrote: "Peace and Love from Miss Iraq and Miss Israel." Yesterday Idan was at the United Nations Human Rights Commission speaking about anti-Semitism in the Arab world and about the hatred towards Israel that is taught in the Arab world.

In 2018 Sarah Idan visited Israel.

While in Israel Idan said: "The issue between Arabs and Israelis goes beyond policy disagreements. It's deeply rooted in the belief systems taught in Muslim countries, which are anti-Semitic."

Yesterday, at the UN she said: "Two years ago, I represented Iraq at Miss Universe. I posted a photo with Miss Israel on social media. I was told to remove it and forced to denounce Israeli policies. I received death threats. Since then, I can no longer return to my homeland," she further recalled in Geneva,

While in Geneva, home of the UN Human Rights Commission, Idan made a point of mentioning that the Iraqi government did not condemn the threats, nor did they protect her freedom of expression.

She also spoke out denouncing Hamas:
"When I watched the news last month, why did they never report that the Hamas terrorist organization fired nearly 700 rockets at Israeli civilians in one weekend or that Hamas used Palestinians in Gaza as human shields? Why do they never condemn Hamas for initiating the attacks? Instead, they only show those killed by the response, in self-defense, and blame Israel."

Idan concluded her remarks by saying:
"For advocating peace, I'm called a traitor ... negotiating peace for both states isn't betraying the Arab cause but a vital step to end conflict and suffering for all. Thank you."

Thank you, Sarah Idan. The world needs more spokespeople with your courage and commitment to righting wrongs.

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Russia is Striking Hospitals
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Since April, when Russia launched an offensive to recapture the area of Idlb in Syria, the Russians have bombed more than 23 hospitals in the region.

Mark Lowcock is the UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs. He reported to the Security Council about the attacks on the hospitals.

Lowcock told the Security Council that he sent a letter to Russia asking for an explanation about the clear targeting of hospitals. He said that he was "not sure" why Russia would act in this way.

Last week, on June 20th, an ambulance with a pregnant woman being rushed to the hospital was targeted by Russia.

Lowcock has tried to find out how and why that happened. "I have written to the Russian Federation to request information as to how the details provided through the de-confliction mechanism are used."

Russia has not yet responded.

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Bank Leumi Appoints Arab Chair
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel once again proved itself a wonderful democracy. The largest investment bank in Israel, Bank Leumi just named an Israeli Arab as their new chairman of their board.

On Sunday Dr. Samer Haj-Yehia was selected by the bank's board of governors.

Haj-Yehia earned a PhD in macroeconomics from MIT. He earned an MBA in finance, a master's degree in accounting and economics and a law degree.

His resume is very impressive. As the new chairman of the board I am certain that the bank will continue to grow financially.

The most important lesson here is that his election was not a token appointment. Haj-Yehia is the perfect candidate for the position.

Israel is a democracy with equal opportunity.

Unfortunately, like any democracy, there are some very vocal racists.

A tiny minority -- and also unfortunately that minority attract the limelight. These racists often catch the attention of the media and they are paraded across headlines.

But they do not represent Israel.

More typical of Israel is this appointment.

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Syria S-300s are Operational
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli intel satellite company ImagSat International released pictures of Russia's four S-300 surface-to-air anti-missile batteries in Syria.

The fourth and final S-300 photographs were made public this weekend.

This information means that it will be much harder for Israel to attack Iranian and Hezbollah targets.

This Russian S-300 weapon is one of the newest and most sophisticated anti-missile systems - and it will most probably be manned by the Iranians.

The four batteries are positioned strategically throughout Syria and will significantly bolster their defense against Israelis airstrikes.

With the S-300 protecting them, Israel will have to work much harder to keep Iran and Hezbollah from amassing weapons and transferring them.

This is a major obstacle for Israel to overcome.

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PA Arrest Attendees of Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

15 Palestinians attended the Bahrain conference.
And on Friday, Palestinian police raided their homes to arrest all 15 of them.

The police confiscated computers and security cameras. Only one person was arrested the others escaped or went in to hiding before their homes were raided.

Hebron businessman Saleh abu Mayaleh was the person arrested. He spent two days in jail and was released after the US embassy sent a very strong letter to the PA.
Jason Greenblatt, White House Special Envoy tweeted a response after abu Mayaleh's release:

"We are pleased the PA has released the Palestinian they arrested after attending the Peace to Prosperity workshop. We look fwd to continuing our conversation w all who attended the workshop & anyone else who wants a better future for the Palestinians."

Before the Peace to Prosperity Conference the Palestinian press published the names and pictures of those planning to attend the workshop and called them all traitors.

The charge against them was treason.

Talk about an extreme reaction.


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Bahrain Not Really in the Media
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The workshop in Bahrain is over.

Palestinians are calling it a big nothing.
The United States is optimistic - after all, it is the first stage in
their "Deal of the Century."

There was very little coverage of the Bahrain workshop in mainstream US media. There was very little coverage in the Israeli media.

Actually, the most covered news items in the Israel news cycle at the time that the workshop was taking place were the US presidential debates and the Iranian threat.

On the whole, there was more media coverage to the lead up to the workshop than there was of the workshop itself.

One can never really predict how a news cycle will develop. In many ways modest coverage is helpful - but, then again, it proves the point for the Palestinians,

Bahrain was in the media, but on the sidelines.

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Russia Says US Drone in Iranian Airspace
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia announced yesterday that they have information that the US drone that was shot down by Iran was over Iranian airspace.

Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of Russia's Security Council, made it clear that their information indicates that the US encroached on Iranian air space and hence, Iran was justified in shooting down the US drone.

He followed up and said that the pictures, video and information that the US provided was fuzzy and very unprofessional and therefore unconvincing. He clearly said that he does not believe the US argument.

This is a devastating statement by Russia. They are siding with Iran over the United States. The Russian statement also raised doubts about whether the US is telling the truth - and that plays right into the Iranian playbook which repeats over and over that the United States has fabricated facts about Iran.

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US UK Israel Joint F-35s Train
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The British Royal Air Force Defense Ops tweeted about and confirmed a three country joint training operation with US, British and Israeli participants.

This was not just any training operation. This was a joint training exercise for the Lightning F-35B - the most advanced fighter jet in the world. One of the specifications of the F-35B is that it is a stealth jet.

The British released a picture of 6 jets - 2 British, 2 US and 2 Israeli - in arrowhead formation. Each of the countries was flying two F-35s.

The F-35 has already flown many missions for Israel, especially over Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. There are also rumblings about the F-35 flying several missions over Iran.

Making this information public is very important. It is a clear statement to Iran. It tells Iran that these three countries, Great Britain, the United States and Israel, each have the ability to enter Iran and then leave without even being seen.

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New Parties in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The new elections in Israel on September 17, will certainly have new parties. Two new ones are in the works.

One new party to emerge is headed by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak the only person who actually defeated Bibi in an election. He was the leader of the Labor Party. Labor has since imploded.

Ehud Barak is putting together a great new team. The names include former foreign minister and head of the Kadima Party Tzipi Livni.
Also, Dan Meridor a former Likud minister. Yair Golan former deputy chief of staff of the IDF is also part of the team. The final person to round out the top of this all-star team is Adina Bar Shalom. Bar Shalom is the extremely talented and well known daughter of Rav Ovadia Yosef, former Chief Rabbi and founder of Shas.

The emergence of this party will leach from the New Blue and White coalition. Barak has been rumored to have also spoken to Yair Lapid one of the heads of the Blue and White.

The second new party is far less nationally or internationally enticing. The mayor of Tiberias Ron Kobi is its head. The name of his party is the "Secular Right."

Many more parties will emerge some with better chances than others.


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The Deal of the Century
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The whole world knows that the Palestinians are not pleased with the Trump administration's Deal of the Century, but the truth is that there are Israelis who are not happy with it, as well. And not simply the prime minister. Many leaders of parties that will become part of the next coalition government will find parts of the deal highly objectionable.

Yet, despite those problematic areas, Israel must say "yes" in principle to the Deal of the Century.

Saying "yes" is how one gets a great deal.

The deal is a framework, a text upon which to work. It is a draft. Some items stay in, some are changed or modified and improved, others come out.

From Israel's point of view some issues - like questions of security, will need to be re- referenced and re-evaluated. The best example we have from what has, so far, been made public is linking Gaza with the West Bank via a train and highway.

Israel has rejected this idea for decades, ever since it was first proposed. It was always nixed for security purposes. Any route connecting Gaza and the West Bank would serve as an easy route of transport for terrorists and weapons.

Israel needs to think seriously about how they are going to deal with each proposal.

The Palestinians should have said yes and should be doing the same thinking.

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US Hits Iran - a Cyber Strike
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

USCC is the United States Cyber Command.

The USCC launched a retaliatory strike against Iran this weekend.
This has been a very busy week, cyber speaking. The big news was that Iran attacked US interests, striking tankers in The Sea of Oman. Lesser known news is that Iranian cyber teams were also kept busy attacking many other interests in the region and beyond.

In addition to the United States, Iranians attacked Saudi, Bahraini, UAE and other US computer systems.

In response to the tanker attacks, probably exacerbated by tensions resulting from the computer systems attacks -- or maybe the opposite -- The USCC launched a barrage of attacks against the Iranians.
It's important to note that Iran's cyber aggression team is directly connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Many questions have been left unanswered. It is not clear if this USCC cyber response is the response President Trump was referring to when he referred to striking Iran or if there is more of a response to come. It is also not clear who was hit by the US and how large the attack was. And we do not know if the US hit the Guard's naval force, the military body that has been wreaking havoc in the region.

What is clear is that a cyber attack can be far more destructive than any missile strike.

We learned that lesson from the Stuxnet cyber virus attack against Iran. Stuxnet and follow-up cyber strikes were enormously effective. Effective cyber attacks can set Iran back by months, even years.
The down side is that with each US-led attack, Iran improves its cyber defense capabilities.

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Iran May Strike Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is aware that Iran is feeling frustrated because the United States has not responded to their traps. The Iranians are also disappointed that the US has not al changed their policy toward them.

So, Israel thinks that Iran may decide to elevate tensions with the United States and take them up a notch, up them to a higher level.

That may mean attacking Israel - especially a border area in Israel. Iran would not make the move themselves, they would probably use Hezbollah, their proxy, or utilize their forces in Syria wearing Syrian uniforms and attacking from Syrian positions.

It is unrealistic for Iran to think that taunting the United States or US allies will result in a changing in US policy toward Iran. And yet, that is exactly what Iran is hoping for.

Israel will do its best to intercept an attack or preemptive strike coming from Hezbollah or Syria. Remember, Israel is not limited to the restraints that constrain the United States.

Should Iran conduct an attack against them, Israel will almost certainly respond and strike at the heart of the bases that perpetrated the attack.

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Israel Fixing Gaza Sewage & Electric
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Strange but positive things are going on between Israel and Gaza.

One of those things is related to sewage, the other is related to electricity.

The Gaza sewage system is in a state of total collapse. Gaza's sewage system sends its waste overflowing into Israel causing a real environmental and health hazard. Thousands of cubic meters of waste from Gaza flow into Israel every day.

Israel has been intercepting the waste and piping it to Kibbutz Erez for treatment, but the kibbutz pipes are small and the plant is tiny.
So Israel came up with a different solution.

There will be a new, heavy duty pipeline that will carry waste directly from Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia in Gaza to the Sderot sewage treatment plant. This re-routing of Gaza's sewage waste will save both the Western Negev and Gaza.

Israel needs to handle the sewage issue because, if ignored or mishandled, it could contaminate drinking water and the soil. Israel's drinking water comes from the aquifer which is a natural purifier in the ground.

There's more. It also looks like Israel will build a new electric line to Gaza, paid for by Qatar. Qatar has met with Israel and they have come to an agreement. The cost and the actual amount of money that Qatar will pay has not been made public, but Qatar has already made several payments to Gaza for other projects and they total hundreds of millions of dollars.

Things are looking up for Gaza.

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Trump - Don't Respond to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is luring the United States into a trap.
All these attacks against oil tankers and other US interests are Iran's way of trying to have US President Donald J. Trump respond.

And should Trump respond - any response will be deemed excessive and disproportionate and will play right into the hands of Iran and their public relations campaign. Iran's bottom line remains unvaried, the United States is unfairly targeting Iran.

My advice to the White House and the president is do not take the bait! Even when Iran escalates their targeting - do not take the bait. The only action I would recommend is interception.

Interception is when the United States sees an attack happening, intervenes and stops it before it reaches its target. In doing so the evidence will be clear that Iran was responsible and the Iranians will be publicly humiliated.

The situation is, quite obviously, problematic and extremely explosive. The potential for a larger conflict is certainly there.
And the lesson to be gleaned by Russia, China and North Korea should the United States let US interests be attacked without responding would have serious future ramifications for the US .

Israel is one of the United State's greatest strategic interests. Shared enemies may decide that the US and Israel will not respond to minor attacks so as not to escalate tensions with Iran and then go ahead and pepper them with small attacks.

None the less - and I can't stress this enough, it is essential that the United States hold firm and not respond to Iranian taunts and teases right now.

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Iran & Tensions Rise
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions with Iran are spiraling out of control.

A spokesperson for China went on record yesterday explaining that the situation must calm down and that no one wants war in the Gulf.

The attack on two Saudi oil tankers and the subsequent pointing of fingers at Iran by the United States and the release of a video showing Iranian Revolutionary Guards, only served to ratchet up tensions.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe was in Teheran when this all happened. His purpose was to deliver a message from US President Trump to the Grand Ayatollah urging them to sit down and talk.

The Ayatollah said: "Trump is not worthy." In response Trump tweeted: "They are not ready, and neither are we!"

We need to closely monitor the situation.

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New Terror Balloon Trick
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Balloon terrorism has entered a new stage.

Terrorists lofting balloons into Israel are now using slow burning wicks.

They have found a more powerful, yet still simple, way to terrorize Israelis. A six inch burning wick falling from the sky.

Slow burning wicks break off and continue to burn. That means one balloon which used to have only one attack point, now has three or four attack points. There is the final point - where the balloon drops, and the three other points where the wick breaks off and remains lit as it hits the ground and starts a fire.

This is a major advance for the Palestinians. It is an inexpensive and effective improvement.

Israel discovered this new terror devise after a series of balloon fires were doused and no remains of balloons were found. Israeli authorities watched the video tracking and they saw how that had happened.

This is very difficult weapon to defend against it. There is no way to stop it.

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PA Full Court Press
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians are putting together a full court press to influence their natural partners and supporters to boycott or even back out of the US economic workshop in Bahrain.

Today the PA went on Facebook with an appeal to the greater world to influence Jordan and Egypt to change their minds and not attend the workshop. Their hope is that public humiliation will impact decisions.

"The Palestinian Authority urges Egypt and Jordan not to attend the Bahrain conference," Ibrahim Melhem, a spokesman for the Palestinians wrote on Facebook after it was announced the two Arab countries and Morocco would participate.

Melhem continued, "all brotherly and friendly countries to withdraw," adding that participation "would carry wrong messages about the unity of the Arab position" on rejecting Trump's plan.

Lebanon said they would not attend because they have not been consulted. Now really - why would the US consult Lebanon?

One of the biggest problems emerging out of this entire episode is that countries and leaders, including the Palestinians, have an unrealistic understanding of their true import and role in the larger picture - not just of the Middle East region, but of the world in general.

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Iran Mock Bombs White House
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

In Northern Iran, in the small village of Kiasar, an enactment of a mock attack on Israel, the White House and a US Naval ship was staged.

Fake rockets were emblazoned with the famous quote from the former leader and founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini reading, "Israel must be erased from the annals of history."

The staged presentation was broadcast on Iranian TV. Present were heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Commander General Ali Fazli remarked: "This symbolic missile demonstrates their willpower and their faith. In fact, if there is a need one day, this place will be transformed into a real base for the defense of the religion of God."

In the video presentation of the strike a narrator is heard saying: "Prepare to erase Israel from the annals of history. This mark of shame will quickly and permanently be erased from the annals of the world. This base of global Zionism, England, and America - we shall raze it to the ground, and we shall erase it from the annals of history."

And the crowd applauded.


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Yiddish in the Spelling Bee
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For people who follow The Scripps National Spelling Bee this year's competition was more exciting than the Super Bowl.

Many people were amazed because the judges ruled that the competition was over and named eight national champions.

I found it amazing because three of the words in the competition were Yiddish.

Two of the Yiddish words were given to a 7th grader, contestant No. 5, Rishik Gandshari from San Jose, California.

The first Yiddish word he was given was "Yiddishkeit". He spelled it correctly. A little bit later he was given the Yiddish-Hebrew word "Keriah". The judges told Rishik that the word derives from Yiddish. Actually, "Keriah" really comes from the Hebrew. It means rending clothes during Jewish mourning. The judges defined it as tearing clothes in Jewish mourning ritual.

Finally, the last Yiddish word was "Lekach" the honey cake eaten by Ashkenazi Jews on and around Rosh Hashanah.

Wow.

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PA Religious Intolerance
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

At the end of Ramadan, the month of daily fasting, Muslims around the world celebrate. The celebration is called Eid el Fitr.

Because the Muslim calendar is a lunar calendar, based on the moon, and because that calendar has not been fixed or standardized like the Hebrew calendar, the celebration of Ramadan and Eid el Fitr varies from year to year.

Most of the Muslim world celebrates on June 5, but some celebrated on June 4. The cause of the disagreement centers on the question of how they calculate and see the new moon. So the date of the Eid depends on local leadership and their declaration of when the Eid begins.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE started Eid on Tuesday June 4, whereas Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan and Australia and others start today, Wednesday. The Palestinians, also, celebrate on June 5.

That brings me to the photo I saw of Palestinian police beating a Muslim Arab. The victim chose to celebrate the Eid on Tuesday, June 4 instead of Wednesday, June 5. They beat him with heavy four-foot wooden batons. The victim was on the ground.

This is a horrific act - and not simply because of the beating. It demonstrates just how intolerant the Palestinian system is for people who disagree. Where is religious freedom? Where is the protection of this man's rights? Whom did he hurt? Who will be held accountable for this gross violation of human rights?

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Crazy POV of the PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat the Secretary of the PLO Executive Committee announced on Sunday that Israel is a security threat to the region.

On Twitter Erekat wrote:
"The Israeli occupation's aggression and provocations inside Al-Aqsa Mosque compound." He continued "will be responsible for a new wave of violence to hit the whole region."

Erekat is repeating the very same tropes from 20 years ago. That the Middle East is about to explode because of Israel and their relationship with the Palestinians.

It should be clear that most of the leaders in the Middle East have lost patience with the Palestinians. And over the past year Palestinian leadership has once again tried to provoke the Arab masses into a frenzy because of some Israeli policy or another - even policies of safety and security at the Temple Mt did not cause mayhem. (Remember the Metal detectors).

Pundits thought that the Friday protests at the Gaza border would trigger mass riots around the Arab world. They did not. Many worried that every Friday during the month of Ramadan that there would be huge riots in Jerusalem which would cascade to violence around the world.

But these events were practically irrelevant and even if a small ripple was felt after some event - each blow back was temporary.

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US Tells Russia Israel May Strike Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Numerous times over the past few months the White House and the State
Department have told the Russians that they support Israel attacking Syrian targets.

Those targets include Hezbollah, pro-Iranian militias, Iranian advisers, weapons depots, transfers of weapons, command and control centers and launch and radar facilities.

The US explained that as-long-as Iran is present in Syria, Israel will consider it to be a direct threat and Israel will be justified in targeting Syrian military and all the other potential threats.

Israel, in the meantime, is planning a tri-lateral summit - Russia, the United States and Israel. The obvious topics of discussion will be Syria and Iran.

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Secret Behind New Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I'm certain that every single reader knows that Israel is heading to snap elections on September 17.

This new election is anything but predictable at this stage. There is no knowing who will win or even how many parties will run.

The most important lesson learned from the earlier election is the simple rule of coalition politics.

The party that gains the plurality -- the most seats -- is not always the party with most power. As we saw -- the breakdown of the coalition negotiations proved this point and catapulted Israel into another national vote.

The smaller parties which are courted by the election winner almost always have significant and power in negotiations. Even small parties exert strength and try to get as much as they can when they join the coalition.

This is coalition politics. This is parliamentary democracy.

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Iran's Midget Subs are a Secret Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

National Interest magazine and website rated Iran's navy as the fourth most powerful in the world.

Iran's is a non-conventional navy. It hardly has 10 active large ships. It does have 34 mini submarines. And that is a huge number. These subs are officially termed midget subs or "littoral" subs. About 24 were locally built in Iran and the rest were built and bought from North Korea.

These electric and diesel subs are extremely useful in the shallow and narrow straits and water ways in the region near Iran. Larger nuclear subs and Western subs cannot maneuver well in the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. These subs are the perfect attack given the terrain.

And that is why Iran's navy is ranked 4th in the world.

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Reading Trump's Rhetoric
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is very important to sort the rhetoric from the objectives in understanding President Donald J. Trump.

At a press conference held in Tokyo as part of his visit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, President Trump explained that he wants Iran to be non-nuclear. He explained that he does not want a war and he certainly does not want a change in regime.

Trump said: "I really believe that Iran would like to make a deal, and I think that's very smart of them, and I think that's a possibility to happen."

"It has a chance to be a great country with the same leadership ... We aren't looking for regime change - I just want to make that clear. We are looking for no nuclear weapons."

That was not rhetoric.

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Living w Anti-Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Felix Klein, Germany's Government Commissioner on anti-Semitism, announced that Jews should not wear a kippa in public. Klein said: "I cannot recommend to Jews that they wear the skullcap at all times everywhere in Germany."

In response to Klein's remark Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said: "The statement of the German government's anti-Semitism commissioner that it would be preferable for Jews not wear a kippa in Germany out of fear for their safety, shocked me deeply".

This is not the first time German leadership has warned Jews to be careful and not wear a kippa. Last year the head of the German Jewish community said something similar, but he was more specific and said not to wear a kippa in public especially in large municipalities.

Israelis do not understand what it means to live with anti-Semitism.

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PA Arrests ISIS Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has arrested a would-be ISIS terrorist. She - yes she, is a 23 year old teacher named Alaa Bashir.
Bashir's plan was to murder as many Israeli Jews as possible. Under interrogation Alaa admitted to her plan and to who trained her. She said that she began life as a potential terrorist by affiliating with al Qaeda and moved on to ISIS. She said that she was recruited via a Telegram group which is highly encrypted.

Alaa Bashir told her arresters that ISIS leaders from Syria and Gaza taught her how to assemble explosive devices.

The PA has been watching Bashir for some time, but because she is the niece of a general in the PA's internal security division, until she had a real plan in place she was left alone.

Now - the incongruity with this arrest by the PA needs to be explained.

Despite tensions in the political sphere, security interaction between Israel and the PA works very well. Security teams are in constant contact and work together towards preventing terror. It's a two-way street. Israel has thwarted attacks against Palestinians, and now the PA has thwarted an attack against Israelis.

And yet, PA political leadership continues to support and even pay terrorists to attack Jewish Israelis. So why stop an ISIS terrorist?

After all, what's the difference - dead Israelis are dead Israelis, no matter if they are killed by PA terrorists or ISIS terrorists. Both groups are united in the desire to murder as many Israelis as possible.

The difference is cause and motivation. Palestinian Authority leadership does not profess the same ideals as ISIS. (Gaza leadership, however, does share some of the ISIS ideology - emphasis on some).

Unlike ISIS, Palestinians do not want an Islamic caliphate.

So despite similar desires to murder Jews and to strike terror in
Israel, ISIS and the PA are not in agreement about fundamental issues. And that's why Alaa Bashir was arrested by the PA before perpetrating acts of terror against Israelis.

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Ayatollah Withdraws Support for President
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran The Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted a major critique of the president and foreign minister of Iran on his official website Wednesday May 22.

This is a serious public and direct attack against President Hassan Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Khamenei said: "In some extent, I did not believe in the way that the nuclear deal was implemented. Many times I reminded both the president and the foreign minister."

This announcement on his website is an official withdrawal of support. That means the Supreme leader is leaning elsewhere and to the right.
The president and foreign minister serve at the pleasure of the Supreme leader.

The president and the foreign minister made it very clear that they represented a more liberal Iran and the nuke deal was in the best interest of all of Iran.

The Ayatollah was skeptical at the time but went along and gave the deal and the president a chance. We are now seeing the Ayatollah remind us of his pov in 2015. That is his way of saying your days in office are numbered.

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Hamas Mails Weapons to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has, twice in one week intercepted weapons, components and other tools of war headed for Gaza.

The materials were confiscated at Erez Crossing going into Gaza. All the items were being delivered through the mail. They were all ordered online for delivery to Gaza - and then they were stopped.

In total 372 packages were intercepted. On Tuesday 200 packages were intercepted and on Thursday 172 were intercepted.

Look at this list, this is what the Israelis found and confiscated: multi-rotors, tasers, weapons, balaclavas (ski masks), lasers, air-bag mechanisms, field phones, laser-making lathes, navigation equipment, telescopic sights and military-issue shoes.

Hamas and other extremist groups in Gaza are trying very hard to arm themselves.

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Israeli Lands in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli backpacker named Bar Azoulay spent over four hours in Teheran.

Azoulay was flying from India to Bucharest, Romania for his brother's prenuptial celebration. On the way, someone on his plane had a heart attack and the plane was forced to land at the nearest airport - and that meant Tehran, Iran.

Azoulay was lucky. Throughout the four plus hour emergency delay he was on the ground. The Israeli fully expected Iranian authorities to demand that he deplane and that would be the end.

Instead, in the end, more than four tense hours later, the plane took off for Istanbul.

Speaking about the medical emergency and the plane's diversion to Teheran, Azoulay said: "After we landed, a medical crew boarded the plane, and I just sat there hoping they won't take us off. I promised myself that if I have to leave, it definitely won't be alone."

Once the medical crew stabilized the patient and he was removed from the plane, "we waited another four hours - and that's it."

Wow!


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US Has Low Expectations for the Peace Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Deal of the Century is getting a huge amount of press coverage lately.

President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Jason Greenblatt, said the "challenge of reaching a peace deal is extraordinary". He predicted that the great deal will be greeted with criticism. Well of course.

"What we hope is a full, comprehensive peace agreement," Greenblatt said while addressing the World Jewish Congress' annual meeting on Wednesday in Ottawa. "If that can't be achieved, then positive steps forward to help both Palestinians and Israelis and the region would be very good as well."

There should be no doubt that the peace deal will be met with mixed feelings from sides. But the Palestinians have an automatic "no". And that will be what stops the deal in its tracks.

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Tensions Btw US and Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Rhetoric is extremely high between Iran and the US. US President Trump says the Iran will "face its end" if it attacks the US. This comes after a missile lands too close to the US embassy in Baghdad.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said over the past few days that they do not want war but - "there is no power that can confront us."

Israel added that it will not enter any conflict unless it is attacked.
Of course there is a fear that a skirmish might be sparked by accident.

There is a long history of this in war.

The possibility that some underling somewhere, manning a weapons position will take the rhetoric seriously and push the wrong button in response to something is very possible

But discipline is very important. Middle level military leadership is essential. This is where training is so important.

Rhetoric is simply rhetoric. Neither Iran nor the US want to engage they not should escalate based on rhetoric. They need to walk back the tensions.

We need to watch this carefully over the next few days.

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Jordan is in Trouble
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah II is in a very precarious situation. Abdullah, who was never a very strong leader, is in a more weakened position than ever. He is in danger of becoming even weaker and he is certainly in danger of being overthrown.

Countries in the region see Jordan's king as irrelevant. They have no interest and no need for Jordan. Abdullah is not looped into any talks, strategy conversations or meetings. Washington barely speaks to him and even when he travels to DC he gets little respect and even less information.

King Abdullah II of Jordan has gotten no details of the famous peace plan.

Israel barely bothers to speak to the Jordanian king. And yet, Jordan needs Israel just like it needs backing from Washington and regional leaders like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Jordan needs their economic aid and needs a commitment to protect and defend the monarchy - his monarchy. But that aid has been dwindling. Leaders do not see the value of Jordan.

Jordan is petrified of neighboring country Syria, petrified by Assad, ISIS, Hezbollah and Iran. On Jordan's other border, Iraq is teaming up with Iran. Jordan has been the magnet for refugees fleeing Syria and Iraq. With those refugees come extremists from ISIS and al Qaeda as well as Iranian agents.

But Israel has not forsaken Jordan, not throwing Abdullah to his neighboring wolves. Israel is helping secure Jordan and it is probably Israel that leaked intelligence to an Arabic media outlet that there was a plot to assassinate key players in the Jordanian government.

Once upon a time Jordan was an important ally to Israel and in the region. Today the Hashemite Kingdom is no longer essential. The problem is that the alternative to Jordan is far worse. Despite their current status, for the sake of a stable region, Jordan and King Abdullah II must be reinvigorated and revitalized.

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Understanding Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Understanding Qatar requires clear insight and a watchful eye.
Qatar is emerging as a significant player in the Middle East, especially with regard to the Palestinians. Of late, Qatar is even exerting influence on Hamas and on Islamic Jihad.

At the same time - Qatar is siding with Iran against other Sunni nations. So much so that Saudi Arabia and their minions are united against Qatar.

The best example of their influence in the Middle East is the $480 million that Qatar gave to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to solidify a ceasefire with Israel. Egypt was not able to broker the agreement. The PA was not even in the room. The UN was irrelevant. Islamic Jihad, despite recently seeming to emerge as a force, was non-existent.

Qatar procured a ceasefire.

There's more. Turkey and Qatar have developed a very good relationship and that relationship, too, will be leveraged exponentially to propel Qatar into the role of regional influencer.

We need to keep a better watch on the Qataris.
Qatar may be isolated from their fellow Sunnis, but they have become remarkably successful at relationship building and power broking and have even begun to encroach on the role of Saudi Arabia as the region's great influencer.

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The Griffons Were Poisoned
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Eight griffon vultures were found dead in the Golan Heights. They were poisoned. Two others were poisoned and have been taken to an Israeli wildlife clinic. This was not terror -- it was the dastardly act of selfish people.

The Israeli authorities are investigating.

These birds of prey are huge - 9 feet wingspan 4 feet in length. They are so strong that they can literally pick up a baby calf or goat. The primary suspects are cattle owners who have poisoned griffons in the past.

These 10 birds are more than half of the entire griffon population in the region. What makes the timing of the mass killing even worse is that this is nesting season. Nesting is when the eggs are laid and they sit in the nest. The eggs need to be protected in order to hatch.

The eggs will probably not survive, creating yet another blow to the griffon population.

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Nakba is Today
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Nakba is the Palestinian Day of Catastrophe. It is May 15, 1948. The Day is remembered every May 15 since 1948.

Nakba, of course, corresponds to the Gregorian date of Israel's independence. It sounds strange -- Israel's creation is a Palestinian catastrophe -- but this is part of Palestinian culture.

This year there were Palestinian rallies throughout the region. One particular rally was at the Gaza border at the site of the Friday weekly rallies which are called the "March of Return." They gather and try to march through the border fence separating Gaza and Israel and then the purpose is to take Israel from the Israelis.

They attempt to breach the fence and the IDF uses various methods to stop them.

Hamas launches balloons and kites with bombs they roll burning truck tires.

It is hardly a peaceful protest. People often get hurt and some even die. So far today there have been no fatalities and injuries. Today, Hamas created a series of points where people should gather near the border fence. Hamas is clamping down and trying to control any violence to prove that they are in charge and to preserve the fragile cease fire with Israel.

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Iran Will Compete Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Olympic Committee has officially announced that they concluded meetings with the International Judo Federation.

Iranian Judokas will now compete against Israelis.

Of course, the announcement did not mention Israel. It specifically referred to the Tokyo Olympics which will take place in the summer of 2020.

Over the years Iranian athletes have missed weigh-ins, faked injuries or found other excuses to get out and even forfeit their matches when they were scheduled to compete against Israelis.

The head of the Iranian Basiji Athletes Organization, General Daoud Azarnoush, had a different take on the announcement of Iran's new policy. He said that he hopes Israel will be wiped out before the next summer Olympic games in Tokyo when Israel and Iran will likely compete.

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Eurovision Starts in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The Eurovision song competition began Sunday in Tel Aviv. While not a very popular music competition in the United States, Eurovision is the biggest musical event of the year worldwide.

As expected, there were calls for boycotts and threats of terror. More than 20,000 Israeli police are on hand - just in case. 250 million people around the world are expected to watch and Madonna, we are told, is scheduled to take the stage in a show of solidarity with Israel.

Each year, the previous winner's home country hosts Eurovision. Israel is hosting this year because last year's Israeli contestant, a woman named Netta Barzilai, won the competition with the song Toy. The Israelis created a huge statue of Netta in downtown Tel Aviv.

Israel has won Eurovision four previous times, once with the iconic song Halleluyah.

Two semi-final rounds will take place in Tel Aviv on May 14th and May 16th. The grand finale will be held on May 18th.

For Israel, winning and then hosting Eurovision, an international event based on merit and creativity, engenders a renewed sense of pride and validation. It is perfectly timed after Israel Independence Day and Jerusalem Day.

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US Condemns UN
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

I do not like to write about the United Nations but sometimes what happens is so outrageous I cannot remain silent.

The United Nations Security Council met to condemn Israel. They did not condemn Hamas for launching 700 rockets into Israel.

President Trump's Special Envoy Jason Greenblatt appeared at was is called and Arria Formula meeting. He condemned the UNSC for their present act and their history.

"Where is the urgent condemnation from this room for that unconscionable, sustained attack? Where is the sympathy and the solidarity for the people of Israel? All I hear is silence," Greenblatt said.

"It is baffling and disappointing to see the obvious, continual anti=Israel bias here. Here we are in an Arria session to condemn Israel, in the same halls where just a few months ago, Member States failed to condemn Hamas, a known terrorist organization that just a few days ago fired close to 700 rockets at Israel - including at hospitals and schools," Greenblatt said.

"It is truly shameful that in these halls there have been nearly 700 resolutions condemning actions of Israel - the region's only real democracy - yet not one condemning Hamas' attacks on Israelis or its abuse and neglect of the very people it purports to govern," Greenblatt said.

Looking beyond Gaza, he said, the UNSC has never held an "Arria or session of any kind focused on Palestinian terrorism or incitement."

"Let's stop pretending that settlements are what is keeping the sides from a negotiated peaceful solution. This farce and obsessive focus on one aspect of this complicated conflict helps no one," Greenblatt said.

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Israel: Happy B-Day
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is Israel's 71 birthday!

This is no small fete. Israel has transformed the world during those 71 years. Not just the Jewish world --- the entire world. The world is a better place because Israel exists.

During the first few years after Israel was established -- it was not at all clear that Israel would survive. That was the second miracle -- the first being the creation of the state itself. At any moment the young fledgling state could be over run by her hostile neighbors.

And yet Israel survived and grew now to over 9 million citizens (9,021,000 to be exact).

The creation of Israel and its continued strength and success illustrate several important points in history. The first is that the destiny of the Jewish people is not victimhood but creativity and productive contributions. Despite the horrors of Holocaust, Israel emerged as fulfillment of the age old dream of building the promised land, the holyland.

Being connected to the land of Israel is transformative. That connection is called Zionism. It changed the Jews as individuals and as a community. There is a stark contrast in Jewish life between pre and post 1948, the year Israel was established.

It was a watershed. It was one of the greatest most drastic distinctions in history. Within a period of 15 years (1941-1956) Jews went from horror to rebirth to builders. Ask any Jew who lived before and after.

Never take this miracle for granted. And remember that the miracle continues today and every day.

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The Cost of Gaza Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

There are several interesting pieces of information to be noted about the barrage of nearly 700 rockets that were just launched toward and into Israel.

90 of those rockets never made it into Israel. 240 were intercepted by the Iron Dome. Most of the others landed in empty areas.

It is estimated that between Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Gaza is in possession of between 5,000 and 20,000 rockets and missiles. Most of the rockets are short range but some, especially those missiles smuggled in from Iran, have the ability to reach far into Israel.

The Iranian supplied missiles aside, most of the rockets in Gaza are locally built in work-sheds and industrial parks. They are made from materials smuggled into Gaza.

The price is the most remarkable aspect of these locally made rockets. They cost anywhere between one hundred dollars and a few hundred dollars. The price depends on what goes into the rocket, especially the propellant.

Gaza's terrorists can develop a powerful weapon for a fraction of the cost of the Iranian-made rockets. The Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets and missiles shot from Gaza into Israel, costs up to tens of thousands of dollars for each intercept.

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Israel's New Population Numbers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Every year, on the eve of Israel's anniversary, they release the country's population numbers. The numbers are humbling given Israel's short, 71 year history, and the realization that just a few years ago Jews suffered a Holocaust.

Today, the total population of Israel is 9,021,000 people. That's the official number given by the annual report released by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. The report was made public on Sunday.

The report divides the population into different demographics.
6,697,000 of Israelis are Jews (74.2%).
1,890,000 are Arabs (20.9%).
434,000 belong to other religions (4.8%).

Israel is just a little larger than Papua, New Guinea and just a little smaller than Switzerland and Austria. It is miraculous that Israel has accomplished so much and is on track to accomplish so much more.


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They Defend Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar tweeted a defense of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. She tweeted after Palestinians launched more than 600 rockets into Israel and Israel struck back at launch sites and command and control centers.

She wrote: "How many more protesters must be shot, rockets must be fired, and little kids must be killed until the endless cycle of violence ends? The status quo of occupation and humanitarian crisis in Gaza is unsustainable. Only real justice can bring about security and lasting peace." in a tweet Sunday night.

This is stunning. But even more stunning was this response to a NYTimes headline. The headline read "Gaza Militants Fire 250 Rockets and Israel Responds with Airstrikes."

Rashida Tlaib Democrat from Michigan and a Palestinian American tweeted: "When will the world stop dehumanizing our Palestinian people who just want to be free? Headlines like this & framing it in this way just feeds into the continued lack of responsibility on Israel who unjustly oppress & target Palestinian children and families. #FreePalestine"


WOW! Simply warped

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Gaza Could Become A Major Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza launched 430 rockets into Israel on Saturday morning thru Sunday morning. 180 of the rockets were fired overnight.

Israel retaliated by striking 130 sites in Gaza.

Early on Saturday morning Gaza began the barrage by sending 50 rockets toward heavily populated cities and towns. Israel's Iron dome was launched and intercepted some of the rockets.

Over the course of the day Gaza continued to loft rockets into Israel. Israel struck back at what appears to have been a predetermined set of locations. but there was some collateral damage. In Gaza a pregnant mother and her fourteen-month old child were killed. And in Israel a sixty year old man was injured and then died from his wounds.

We must monitor this very carefully. The response and the counter response between Gaza and Israel will determine whether or not this barrage escalates into a much larger set of events or even into a military operation.

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Escalation on Gaza Border
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt takes its role as mediator between Israel and Gaza very seriously. Tensions are rising and the conflict might escalate.

In response Egypt has invited or rather summoned the leaders of Hamas specifically Yahya Sinwar and the leaders of Islamic Jihad to Cairo.
They are not simply concerned about the tensions at the Gaza border with Israel.

This week numerous balloons and kites were launched in to Israel was well as a rocket which missed its target and landed in the Mediterranean Sea. The rocket was launched by Islamic Jihad - they accepted responsibility for the attack.

In response Israel struck Hamas and Jihad positions from the air.
Israeli leadership has threatened that if things do not come under control in Gaza and if things are not become calmer they will re-institute their policy targeting Hamas and Jihad leadership. Targeting is a euphemism for saying assassinate.

Hamas in turn announced that if assassinations resume then they will start launching rockets at major cities in Israel.

The threat is real and escalation seems very possible.

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Middle East is Buying Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Countries in the Middle East spend more on defense than anywhere else in the rest of the world. And now the United States is urging NATO to reduce its defense spending to 2% from about 5% of their GDP.

Most countries in the Middle East spend 10% or more of their GDP on defense - especially on purchasing weapons. Oman spends 11% and Saudi Arabia spends 10.8%. Afghanistan spends 10.1% of its budget on defense.

Seven out of the top ten defense spenders are Middle East countries and ten out of the fifteen largest spenders are from the Middle East and North Africa.

There are several essential points to be learned from this information. First is that both the United States and Russia benefit from supplying these weapons. Next is that it means that the Middle East is being armed way beyond their need.

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An ISIS Resurgence
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A video of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has surfaced. He took responsibility for the deadly terror attack, the mass murder in Sri Lanka. Baghdadi also outlined the role of the Islamic State - IS without a state.

French Intel said that: "The video of al-Baghdadi - the Caliph without a caliphate - is to be considered with caution at this stage. French services are analyzing it."

French Intel continued: "If this video is authentic, it confirms what we have repeated: Daesh (Islamic State) has no territory, but Daesh has not disappeared."

The important point is that IS is still very much alive with or without Baghdadi. If Baghdadi is alive then IS is not just alive but will certainly have an explosive resurgence in the near future.

Be aware and be alert!

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Poland To Import Gas from Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like Poland is going to import gas from Israel.
Poland wants - or rather needs, to disconnect from its Russian gas dependence.

Relying on Russia for just about anything almost always lead to problems. Poland knows this. According to Piotr Wozniak, CEO of PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, Poland is "interested" in importing gas from Israel.

He told Reuters: "We are looking at all those places to the south of Poland ... So yes, we are interested in Israel ... We want to be the company at the crossroads of North-South and East-West ... we need something to the south. Something reliable. So we are looking at all those places to the south of Poland very carefully... So yes, we are interested in Israel."

This is very good news and a very important show of independence by Poland.

Russia has spent decades forcing countries into submission by using energy as a way to exert influence. Now Poland is finding a way to remove that threat and to forge an independent policy without Russia hanging over their shoulder.

Kudos to Poland.

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Iran Responds to US Threats
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is responding to US threats.

Yesterday they threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz through which 20% - 30% of the world's oil travels every day.

They are also threatening Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran is saying you think you can replace us and promise Donald Trump that you will fill the supply gap - don't count on it.

According to Iran's President Rouhani: "You whose existence is in the shadow of the Islamic Republic of Iran, how can you tell Trump that if you bring Iran's oil exports to zero we will make up for it? ... Do you understand the consequences of this statement and that it means you are a definite enemy of the Iranian people?"

Rouhani went on to say that if the United States wants to negotiate, all sanctions need to be lifted and an apology must be issued, referring to a prisoner exchange. This is Rouhani's phraseology: "Negotiation is only possible if all the pressures are lifted, they apologize for their illegal actions and there is mutual respect."

The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei has also chimed in. The Supreme Leader of Iran said: "America's efforts in sanctioning the sale of Iranian oil won't get anywhere ... We can export as much of our oil as we need and want."

This is very serious. The world oil market will feel the effects of
this standoff. Oil is now at its highest price since November.

The battle of oil on the world market has begun and Iran is not forfeiting.

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Abbas Calling Trump's Bluff
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jared Kushner, in conjunction with the the Trump White House, is starting a campaign to prop up and promote their deal of the century.

But at the same time Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, has embarked on his own campaign.

Abbas has called a meeting of the Palestinian Central Council to be held on May 15th in Ramallah.

The Council will discuss rescinding recognition of Israel and no longer engaging in security or any other interactions and exchanges with Israel.

They will discuss separating from Israel and the US and putting forth all requests to Europe. The most important appeal they will make will be for statehood and recognition.

Abbas is telling the US and Kushner and Trump we do not want your deal, we want a state. And Europe will recognize us. They are saying we the Palestinians do not need your support or your signing off on what we are getting form Russia the EU and even from Iran. Gone are the days that the United States can dictate to us.

We will soon know if the Palestinians emerge successful in their campaign and if they have outsmarted the United States.

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Trump Cracks Down on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The pressure is mounting.

The United States has cancelled all 8 waivers that permitted certain countries to import oil from Iran.

Now, President Trump has announced that anyone importing anything -- especially oil - from Iran will be sanctioned by the US. President
Trump is giving allies a choice: do business with Iran or do business with the United States. It is a simple choice. You can't do both.

Iran is responding. Iranian leadership has announced that they will close the Straits of Hormuz if they are not permitted to export their oil.

This is a game of rhetoric and power.
Who knows what the next move will be.

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Iran's HomeMade Fighter Jet
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 19, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran flew its first totally, locally, manufactured fighter jet yesterday.

I watched the videos and it showed nothing exceptional.
The Jet is called the Kowsar or Thunderbolt. It is also the name of a section in the Koran.

The Kowsar is based on the US made Northrop F-5. Iran claims that their jet is 4th generation in its technology and that it is capable of jamming all electronic attacks.

It was said that Iran manufactured at least 5 Kowsar jets. They claim 7 but I saw a picture of 5 of them in the factory. Iran is now ready not simply to test, but also to sell them.

The question now is how well this Iranian-made jet stands up against the best US and Russian fighter jets and computer technology.

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What Happened in Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For the past three days I have been reading how the Israeli delegation to the Global Entrepreneurship Congress hosted in Bahrain cancelled their visit due to security concerns.

The story was posted all over the Hebrew and Israeli press.
Surprise! Then I discovered that the Israeli delegation went to the Congress, returned home from the Congress and called it a successful trip.

Okay, so there were protests and members of the Bahraini parliament shouted that Israelis have no place in Bahrain. But in Bahrain decisions are made by the Emir, not the members of parliament and the Emir wanted the Israelis at the Congress. In fact, they were under his protection.

The president and founder of the Global Entrepreneurship Network, Jonathan Ortmans, was the source for the story that, while the Israelis were welcome , they did not attend for security reasons.

In the end, both versions of the story are probably accurate. Here is what probably happened. The Israeli went to Bahrain and met with several officials, maybe even the Emir. They probably did not attend the Congress.

That is why we have conflicting stories.

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Saudis Raise Their Price of Gas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:


Saudi Arabia is raising its price of gasoline. The price of 95 Octane gas was originally .50 cents a liter and 91 Octane gas was .37 cent per liter. The new price is .56 cents and .38 cents.

There are 3.78 liters per liquid gallon -- that means the price per gallon in Saudi Arabia is $2.11 for 95 Octane and $1.43 for 91 Octane.

The Saudis say that the price of oil is determined by world market price of oil per barrel. Since the cost of oil has hit $70 per barrel they claim that the internal price of oil had to reflect that increase.

There has always been a myth that the price of gasoline in Saudi Arabia was nearly free -- almost like the price of water. That is simply incorrect. The Saudis are the largest producer of oil in the world and the 3rd largest exporter.

All this is true but gasoline still costs money.

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White House Keeps a Secret
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

This White House is all about tweeting and telling the most ridiculous and minute details of the happenings in the Oval Office.

The Trump White House leaks and tweets about almost everything.
Everything that is, except their Middle East peace plan.

The one thing that the White House has kept completely secret is the peace plan. We hear learned a few details, but nothing that has been confirmed. Supposedly the plan is tens of pages long. And we are told that it stops way shy of Palestinian statehood.

It stuns me that the White House has been able to keep the plan a secret. And it stuns me even more that so many people in the media are so ready to comment about a plan they have never read and a plan they know so little about.


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IMF Downgrades Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The International Monetary Fund, the IMF has revised their estimates for growth in the Middle East. They cut the predictions in half from 2.5% to 1.3% growth.

That is a major failure for the Middle East economy and the a statement
of lack of faith by the investor countries.

It all has to do with 2 factors oil and stability.

As for oil ... It seems that their forecast expected much more oil and sadly that is not the case. On the issue of security ... it has not been a calm period in the Middle East.

Investors were very hopeful for the Middle East but there has been no sense that success is around the corner.

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Biggest Winners in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The big winners in the Israeli elections were the religious parties.

The United Torah party increased their seats to 7. In addition, Shas the religious party, known as the party of the sefardim, of the Israelis who have roots in Arab North Africa also gained seats and now they have 8 in the upcoming Knesset.

Also the Right Wing Union party also received 5 seats.

The biggest losers are Labor with 6 and Meretz with 4. The second big loser was the Arabs. The Arab voter turnout was low. There are 2 Arab parties and both together they yielded 10 votes.

If you were to read Haaretz you would think that it is the end of democracy.

But hands down the biggest loser was the New Right Party. After the final counting of the ballots the New Right has failed to reach the threshold and make it in to the Knesset. They broke away from their party counting on right of center votes and they failed.

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Israel's Election
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 10, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Yes, there was an election in Israel yesterday.

And yes Bibi Netanyahu, will, without a doubt form the next government.

Israel is a rich and vital democracy - but it is not a democracy like the United States. Israel is a parliamentary democracy like Canada and the United Kingdom.

In Israel no candidate runs for prime minister and no Israeli casts their vote for a candidate.

Israelis vote for parties and the leader of the party with the most realistic chance of forming a coalition (of over half of the 120 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament) is asked to form a government and then, that party leader becomes prime minister.

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Election Roll May be Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A hacker posted lists of Israeli voters on Saturday. The hacker claimed to have hacked 6,000,000 people and their details from what they claimed are current voter rolls.

The hacker was part of a larger, annual, mass hack attack against Israel called OpIsrael. It takes place ever year on April 7th and has been an annual event since 2011. Just coincidentally, tis is an election year and the election is today.

The name of the hacker is DarkCoder.

The timing of the hack is telling.

DarkCoder tweeted about the attack on Saturday, just days before Israelis go to the polls. Included in the tweet was a screenshot of a list of many, many names and ID numbers.

But really, it is doubtful that the system was hacked. More likely the list was copied from a previous hack. That information is on line and accessible.

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Flooding in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

70 Iranians have died in floods over these past few weeks. The devastation has caused thousands of people to be relocated.

The numbers say everything.

1900 cites have been flooded. 140 rivers have burst their banks. 409 landslides. 78 roads destroyed. 84 bridges failed.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement: "These floods once again show the level of Iranian regime mismanagement in urban planning and in emergency preparedness. The regime blames outside entities when, in fact, it is their mismanagement that has led to this disaster ... The United States stands ready to assist and contribute to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, which would then direct the money through the Iranian Red Crescent for relief."

Pompeo is correct. Iranians are suffering and their leadership is standing idly by and letting it happen.

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China & Russia Selling Arms in MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

China and Russia are moving to encroach on the US in the arms market in the Middle East.

The United States has always dominated the Middle East arms market and now that is changing. Both Russia and China and pitching to Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

To get a sense of just how lucrative and enormous this market it, in 2018 Saudi Arabia bought $7.7 billion of weapons from the US.

The US is losing market share in the Middle East. Russia and China are all too aware of that fact. The US is no longer the most influential force in the region. China and Russia are laughing, as the saying goes, all the way to the bank.

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Story Behind Baumel's Return
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Details of how Zachariah Baumel's remains were finally returned to his family and buried after 37 years are just now coming out.

The remains of a total of 20 bodies ended up in Israel's Abu Karbi forensic lab in Jaffa. Only one of them matched the remains of a missing Israeli soldiers. That was Baumel.

The entire operation of retrieving the bodies took 2 years and was managed by Russia. There were of course some snags along the way as tensions between Israel and Russia increased and decreased. The entire operation was put on hold after the Russia military transport was shot down by the Syrians and Russia blamed Israel.

The remains were found in the Yarmuq refugee camp which until recently was controlled by ISIS. After ISIS was removed Russia could go in.

Then the bodies were transferred to Israel.

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Superbugs Taking Over the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Superbugs are endangering the Middle East.

A Superbug is type of bacteria that is resistant to antibiotics. Superbugs are the result of overuse of antibiotics in a society.

Iraq and Egypt seem to have the worst case of Superbugs. They are popping up elsewhere in almost every part of the Middle East.

As far as we can see these areas have not controlled their use of antibiotics. Some have said that antibiotics are distributed like candy. And what is worse is that these societies also give them freely to their livestock.

Because of overexposure and over use of the medicine the antibiotics are simply not effective against these Superbugs. The medicine is simply not stopping the bacteria.

This problem has endangered the public health of the entire region. Unfortunately, there is nothing for them to do to change the situation. Stronger antibiotics would work but only if their use was limited and only prescribed in extreme situations.

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Bibi to Moscow
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 3, 2019
I've Been Thinking:

Netanyahu is flying off to Moscow on Thursday to meet face to face with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It must be very important for the Israeli PM to take a day and make this trip especially because it is 5 days prior to an Israeli national election where he is not necessarily a shoe in winner.

What is so important? Only one thing ... Security!!!!

The announcement came on Tuesday and the trip is Thursday so the subject is time sensitive and cannot wait until after the elections.

It must have to do either with Syria or Iran or both.

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Most Expensive Painting Missing
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The most expensive painting ever sold was auctioned by Christies in November of 2017. It was a painting by DaVinci named Salvator Mundi.

The record breaking painting was sold for $450.3 million and was purchased by Saudi Crown Prince Mohamud bin Salman.

The painting was supposed to go on display in September of 2018 in the Abu Dhabi branch of the Louvre. But that never happened. It seems that the painting has disappeared.

No one is answering questions about the whereabouts of the famous painting.


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Arabs Are Not Voting in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's upcoming April 9 election is raising some important questions.
One very interesting factoid is that a recent study shows that large percentage of Arabs who are citizens of Israel not planning on voting.

The joint Arab List is the third largest party in this outgoing Knesset. They currently hold 13 seats. It is worth pondering that important point.

The study shows that 19% fewer Arabs will go out and vote in the next election. That means a drop from their already dropping number. In the most recent Israeli election only 63% of the Arab citizens of Israel voted.

Ironically the motto of the joint Arab List is "flocking to the polls."
This is actually a play on the Netanyahu's fear mongering during the last vote when he said that the "Arabs are rushing to the polls."

Arab citizens of Israel really are not rushing out to vote.

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Brazil Will Move Its Embassy Slowly
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

In order to succeed in diplomacy one needs both patience and realism. Sometimes huge bold pronouncements are simply election slogans. On a practical scale it is difficult to snap your finger and accomplish big changes.

So I was not surprised when I saw that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro changed his tune about moving his country's embassy to Jerusalem.

The Israeli press covered the announcement as a walk back of the decision. The Arabic press covered it as a decision reversal.
They got it wrong.

Just like Honduras, Brazil will open an office - not an official embassy - in Jerusalem. The message sent by the Brazilian foreign ministry was that they will be opening a business office in Jerusalem. It is the first step in the process that will ultimately lead to an embassy in Jerusalem.

The date, Guatemala has moved their embassy to Jerusalem. Last week, Hungary opened a diplomatic trade mission in Jerusalem. Romania announced that they will be moving their embassy. Prime Minister Viorica Dancila of Romania made that announcement at the AIPAC conference.

Others, the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Australia are all discussing it.

It will happen, it will happen in stages and it will take time.

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Israeli Mayor Writes His Gazan Counterpart
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Mayor Alon Davidi, the mayor of Sderot, wrote a note to Ismail Haniyah, the leader of Hamas in Gaza.

Davidi wrote the note in Arabic and posted it on Twitter.

"Good morning, ya Haniyeh ... I wanted to send you an email or a fax, but it seems your offices no longer exist."

"Ismail Haniyeh - can you not see that you’re losing? You take all the money you get from the Arab world and instead of using it for food, a functioning economy and a future for Gaza's residents, you waste it on your image and attempts to beat us."

"It's true Haniyeh, things aren't easy (here). Sometimes it's rough and I'll go as far as to say we're suffering. But look at the results of your behavior... How does Gaza look in comparison to Sderot?"

"You've been launching rockets at us for 18 years ... But it seems you don't know what goes on in this city - it's booming! Hundreds of new residents join us every year, new homes are being built. We're growing and growing stronger."

Davidi attached 2 pictures one of the destruction of Gaza the other of the development of Sderot.

Pretty powerful.

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Tehran is Under Water
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Parts of Tehran are under water. Actually 31 provinces in Iran have experienced torrential floods mudslides and sink holes.

As of the last count 32 people are dead and the death toll will certainly rise.

The forecast is for more rain -- more disaster.

There have been landslides of 25 feet. That means that a 25 feet high wave of mud and debrit including rock and everything else surges destroying everything it is wake. When a force that powerful hits its destructive power is devastating.

Roads have been destroyed, bridges wrecked and home washed away.

Iran is in a terrible crisis.

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Honduras Recognizes Jersualem as Capital
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not know that Tegucigalpa is the capital of Honduras. But it's an important fact that we all should know.

The president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, announced that his country now recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Honduras will not be moving their embassy just yet, but they will be opening an office for trade and other official activities in Jerusalem. It is the first few steps in the process of moving the embassy

Hernandez said: "Today I have announced the first step, which is to open a trade office in Jerusalem, the capital of the state of Israel, and this will be an extension of our embassy in Tel Aviv."

Hernandez continued: "I've said that a second step will draw a lot of attacks from the enemies of Israel and the United States, but we will continue along this path."

This move by Honduras is significant and will impact others to act the same way - recognizing Jerusalem as the capital first, moving their embassy to Jerusalem later.

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Abbas Suggests US Force for PA
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed students at American University in Ramallah on Saturday. He described his fourth and last meeting with US President Donald Trump.

The meeting he spoke of took place in September of 2017 in New York City on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

During that meeting Abbas proposed a US peace keeping force to serve in the Palestinian state, supplemented by NATO troops. He said that Trump liked the idea.

"I told him that if Israel is worried about its security, I propose bringing US-led NATO troops to Palestine to protect Israel's and our security."

Abbas said that Trump then asked an aide "How many soldiers do we have?"

The official said that the United States has 6,000 soldiers who could be part of the planned NATO force.

"Trump told his aide that this number was not enough, but the soldiers should anyway be ready,” Abbas added. "I told Trump: Mr. President, I don't like war and I don’t believe in war. I believe that if we get our state, I would prefer to build a school than buy a tank, or build a hospital than purchase a warplane. I don’t want weapons. I just want to build my country."

After this exchange Abbas told the students. Trump looked at him and said: "How come they say you’re a terrorist? You are a man of peace."

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Israel Ranked 13th in World Happiness
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 21, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The results of the 2019 World Happiness Report are in - and Israel is ranked 13th in the world.

Actually, Israel slipped two positions since last year when they were ranked eleventh.

Topping the list are Finland, Norway and Sweden. The United States is ranked 19.

The World Happiness Report is generated by the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and comes out annually in conjunction with the Ernest Illy Foundations and with the Gallup Polling Company.

The study is very telling specifically because it is based on how citizens define their own happiness. There is no standard variable or scientific standard and there is no way of equalizing the happiness quotient except to ask each person to rank how they feel on a scale of 1 - 10.

Interestingly, despite falling two places in world ranking, Israel's own happiness rating increased by 0.5 from last year.

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Model Planes and Balloons From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The threats Israel is facing from Gaza continue to grow.

A few hours ago, a Styrofoam model airplane landed in the Eshkol region. A hand grenade was attached. The toy was found on Highway 234 near Gaza.

Of course, police sappers were called in and the devise was defused.

In addition to the model airplane, a bundle of balloons was found on Highway 40 in the northern Negev late on Sunday. This was the fourth set of balloon bombs sent from Gaza into Israel on Sunday. And again, police sappers were called to examine the explosives and defuse them.

These small devises are significant threats to the calm and well being of normal life in the region.

They are weapons of terror and they continue to threaten the lives and the wellbeing of Israeli citizens.

The end of this terror tactic is not yet in sight.

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Polish Paper- How to Identify a Jew
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

A weekly news magazine in Poland called Totally Poland had a frontpage story telling readers how to identify a Jew.

This is the magazine's formula for finding a Jew --- look at "[N]ames, anthropological features, expressions, appearances, character traits, methods of operation" and "disinformation activities."

This type of media is blatant anti-Semitism.

Poland has neither apologized nor have they tried to explain this magazine's agenda.

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Kurds Run to Russians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For anyone who does not know -- The Kurds were the backbone in the battle against ISIS. They were the front line. Without the Kurds ISIS could never have been defeated.

And now the US has once again abandoned the Kurds.

When the US pulls out of Syria they will effectively be leaving the Kurds all alone.

The Turks are poised to seek revenge on the Kurds for a long history of hate ... and they have already begun to attack them.

In order to defend themselves the Kurds are moving toward the Russians. The Kurds will ask the Russians to protect them from the Turks.

This is a very shrewd move on the part of the Kurds. The Turks have true respect for the Russians. In the end it may keep the Kurds safe.

This will work only for as long as Russia needs the Kurds.

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Iran's Pres in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently visited Iraq.

The purpose of the trip was to sign a series of agreements that mutually benefit both countries. One of the agreements deals with building a train that will link the two countries.

Iraq made the agreements and the meeting public.

To make this relationship work, Iran needs to push aside decades of tensions with Iraq. If that happens, Iraq can help Iran ease the pain of US sanctions.

It won't be easy - Iran and Iraq have had much tension and even fought a war. And Iranian troops are in Iraq to help protect the minority Shiites who live there. But the motivation on both sides is strong.

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Jordan's King in DC
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

King Abdullah of Jordan is in Washington, D.C.

In the residence of the Jordanian ambassador to the United States, the king met privately with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Also participating in the meeting was Special Envoy for the Middle East Jason Greenblatt and, of course, President Trump's son in-law Jared Kushner.

The meeting was significant.

The sheer presence of all the powerful men tasked with making decisions and advising the president on Middle East policy and potential peace plans for the region were gathered in the same room.

These are the architects of the plan of the century - the plan that President Trump has promised to deliver.

Jordan's support for the plan - whatever it is, is essential. The King of Jordan's support will be used as a tool to convince Palestinian leadership and the Palestinian people to accept the Trump Plan.

But don't think it was all a one way street. They talked about the plan, but odds are they also devoted time and energy to talking about what and how much Jordan is asking for in order to support the Trump Plan.

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Iceland Group Challenge Bibi to a Fight
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

This is the kind of story that makes those who read it laugh but is totally under covered.

Iceland's Eurovision entry which is scheduled to compete in Tel Aviv this year has challenged Israeli PM to Glima.

That is a test of strategy and physical strength. Strategy wins hand down in the national sport of Iceland.

The Icelandic group chosen to represent Iceland in Eurovsion is a techno band called Hatari. They originally said they would not attend. But now they are challenging Israeli PM to a duel of Glima.

Hatari defines themselves as "an anti-capitalist techno performance art group." Now they published an invitation to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a Glima, a Nordic folk wrestling match.

This is a major step in the right direction.

Who cares who wins. There will never be an actual Glima --- but there is an opening to talk.

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Fmr Pakistani PM Calls for talks w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf announced in late February that Pakistan should consider establishing ties with Israel.

"There is no harm to establish a relationship with Israel," Musharraf said, adding that "it will help Pakistan counter India" by accessing an "elite club" of "influential" nations.

There have been talks between Israel and Pakistan. In 2005 business man Jack Rosen facilitated a meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers. So the idea is not new ... but it is interesting.

Musharraf made the announcement in Qatar. He is living in Qatar in a self-imposed exile. Musharraf fears a kangaroo court at home in Pakistan. He has made his new home Qatar.

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US Gives Israel THAAD Missile Defense
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system has been deployed in Israel for the first time.

The United States is showing its support of Israel by deploying this new weapon in Israel. These 200 US soldiers will, without a doubt, enhance and supplement Israel's security.

This weapon will add to Israel's already extensive anti-missile defense shield system and protect against attacks from Iran and Syria.

The THAAD anti-rocket land-to-air defense system is made by Lockheed Martin. Its rocket travels at Mach 8.24 - that translates to 2.8 kilometers per second.

In October of 2017 the US provided Saudi Arabia with the THAAD. The obvious reason, at that time, was to protect the Saudia from an Iranian threat.

The THAAD system costs about $15 billion. It is an investment well worth it when it comes to protecting US allies.

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3Torahs Stolen from Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Israeli news reported that last Thursday three ancient Torah scrolls were stolen from a synagogue in Teheran.

There is no doubt - the synagogue was burgled and the Torahs were taken.

The synagogue is only one of many Jewish buildings in a compound. There are two Jewish schools, ritual baths and a lab used to check for shatnez - the forbidden blend of wool and linen in clothing.

The scrolls were several hundred years old.

It is still not clear why the Torahs were stolen. The immediate assumption is an act of anti-Semitism. But the real and most probable reason for the theft would be money. Burglars probably stole the three Torahs in order to sell them to a fence who will then sell them to collectors.

Sometimes a burglary, even in a synagogue, is only a burglary.

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Iran helps Hamas transform Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It has been reported that Israeli intelligence has issued 2 reports describing how Iran smuggled special systems to retrofit Hamas' rockets and make them more accurate with GPS satellite guidance systems.

The reports describe that the new guidance system is brought in small suitcases the size of airplane carry on bags commonly called wheel-ees.

Hamas smuggled in this new technology which literally transforms the status quo on the ground. A simple rocket is now a computerized smart bomb.

This is a game changer.

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Locust Swarm Approaches Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 27, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is preparing for a swarm of locust that is capable of devastating plant growth and agriculture.

The locust have begun making their way towards Israel as a result of the heavy rains that recently fell in eastern Yemen and on the Sudan-Eritrea border.

The Israeli Ministry of Agricultural explained that huge swarms of locust have begun migrating from Saudi Arabia. They will make their way to southern Israel via a small stretch of Jordan and the Red Sea.

Israel has prepared a series of pesticides to stop the locust. A similar swarm was stopped by Israel in 2013. While most of the locust were destroyed, several hundred thousand still got through and caused plant damage.

Locust do not pose a danger to humans but they have the ability to destroy the entire agriculture produce of Israel.

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Islamic Jihad Power Play
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 26, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Islamic Jihad has come out strong making statements about their prowess and capabilities especially their ability to fire rockets that can hit places north of Israel.

Why - and why now?

Islamic Jihad is making a play for power on the streets of Gaza. Their goal is to wrestle power from Hamas which currently controls Gaza.

Islamic Jihad is a relatively small group in Gaza - significantly smaller than Hamas. In order for Islamic Jihad to get more supporters, Islamic Jihad must show that Hamas is no different from Abbas and his Fatah party and the Palestinian Authority.

Islamic Jihad must show Palestinians that the true protectors of Gaza's Palestinians is Palestinian Islamic Jihad. And that’s why we have started to see rallies and protests and hear public statements filled with bravado, telling people on the streets of Gaza how powerful Palestinian Islamic Jihad is.

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Jihad Missiles directed at Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is headquartered in Gaza, has as its goal the total destruction of Israel. They made the announcement on Iranian TV.

Islamic Jihad said that they have missiles that they can launch from Gaza and hit as far as Netanya, an Israeli city north of Tel Aviv.
The threat is serious, very serious.

The vast majority of Israelis, two thirds of Israelis, live in a very small stretch of land reaching from just south of Tel Aviv to just north of Tel Aviv.

It is very important to understand that just because a news item was broadcast on Iranian tv does not mean that it is true.

What is true is that Iran has those rockets. The question is whether Palestinian Islamic Jihad has been able to smuggle the rockets into Gaza.

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Sink Holes in Teheran
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Teheran is suffering from a terrible problem - sink holes. The ground simply opens up and whatever is underneath, falls into the earth.

These sink holes are being caused by a thirty-year drought. The excessive water shortages cause the ground to be very weak and to shift. In addition, because of their water shortages, Iran has been pumping more and more from their underground water sources which are called aquafers.

The water they pump is saltier than their regular water and the pumping process reduces the amount of water which, in turn, dries up the foundation under the surface of the ground.

Over 8 million people live in Teheran. The risk to buildings, roads, infrastructure are enormous. It could all be solved by improving the water situation. But given the sanctions imposed against Iran, that isn't impossible.

Iranian leadership will, hopefully, wake up and see the crisis. Hopefully, before it is too late.

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Arab MK: Israel Experiments on Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

We need to be kept abreast of the happenings on campus and the state of anti- Israel anti-Semitic activity.

This morning Galei Tzahal, also known as Israeli Army Radio, posted an audio recording of a Hebrew University professor speaking at Columbia University an Ivy League college in Manhattan.

Professor Nadera Shalhoub-Kevorkian said that Israel experiments on Palestinians. That Israel tests all kinds of weapons on Palestinian towns.

The title of her talk was "Disturbing Spaces - Violent Technologies in Palestinian Jerusalem".

The idea that Israel uses Palestinian neighbors and villages as field to testing sites for new weapons is way off the charts. In addition to weapons she asserted that the IDF experiment with tactics.

"They check for which bombs to use, gas bombs or stink bombs. Whether to put plastic sacks or cloth sacks. To beat us with their rifles or to kick us with boots."

The IDF evaluates and critiques every single action. The post op after a military operation is written and discussed at every level and lessons are gleaned from successes and failures. From successes they look to see how to improve and the same is true for failures.

This is hardly experimenting.

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She Took Off Her Hijab & Now Where
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the woman in Iran who stood up on a transformer, took off her white hijab and waved it like a flag. The woman who was then arrested, fired from her job and convicted of indecency and willingly violating the law. The woman who was sentenced to 3 years in prison and was threatened with taking her child, Viana, away.

Before her prison term began the woman, Azam Jangavi escaped Iran with her daughter and is now awaiting asylum. She sat down for a recent interview with Reuters and described her situation and why she took a stand.

This is what she said: "I was telling myself: 'Viana should not grow up in the same conditions in this country that you grew up in' ... I found a human smuggler with a lot of difficulty. It all happened very quickly, I left my life, my house, my car behind."

This woman is a hero. She, and her daughter, are also in danger. Her message is very important.

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Russia Responding to Trump Plan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is on the offensive and trying to undercut the US. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called several meetings over the past few days and given press conferences.

In his terms --- he laments. He really means Russia is very upset that Palestinian Statehood is not part of the Trump Peace Plan making its way around the Middle East.

"Ending the split will strengthen the position of Russia and the international community, supporting a diplomatic solution based on decisions of the international community," Lavrov said. "There are countries that don't see an end to the division and therefore conclude that without it, the two-state solution has become mission impossible."

To combat the Trump plan Abbas is also traveling to Arab capitals especially Riyadh. His secretary general Saeb Erekat sent a letters to foreign ministers protesting the Trump Plan.

Everyone is running. Everyone is shouting. No one has seen the plan. We need to see the plan to make an honest evaluation.

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Official Saudi Recognition of Israeli Contact
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 12, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

For years it has been known that Israel and the Saudi Arabia have had discussions and communications. There are established lines of communication.

But what is new is that the Saudis have now admitted that a relationship does exist. This admission officially sanctions the dialogue.

It became official through Turki al Faisal the former ex chief of Saudi Intelligence. He said that Israel and the Saudis have been talking for 25 years.

This was all made public in an interview in Israeli media and Qatari media.

Light is shining and many things like this are coming out of the dark and into the light.

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Nasrallah in Humor Ad in Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Humor is one of the coping mechanisms that Israelis use to deal with the constant threat presented by their enemies.

An ad promoting recycling, for example, pokes fun at the head of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

On Thursday a huge ad with Nasrallah's image was put up on the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv. It beckons Israelis to recycle their plastic bottles.

Above the top on Nasrallah's head the caption reads: "I don't recycle bottles." Under the image of Nasrallah the caption reads: "Nasrallah has been stuck in a bunker for 12 years. What's your excuse?"

The humor is biting.

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Kushner to 5 Arab Countries
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt are off to the Middle East for week long trip. They will be visiting five Arab countries. The objective of their trip is to brief leaders on the details of the still secret Trump peace plan. The focus will be on the economic aspects of the plan.

Kushner and Greenblatt will stop in Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

We are only able to speculate about the Trump plan. Uncharacteristic of DC politics - there have been almost no leaks about the real content of the plan.

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Iran Wants US Out
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leadership is threatening the United States, telling them that they must leave Syria.

This is no surprise. At one time or another almost every Muslim and Arab country has issued the same warning and made it clear that the United States should not be in any Muslim country. They have said that no non-believer should tread on Muslim soil.

Syria is one of the centers of Muslim tradition and culture and so, they claim, the United States has no place being on Syrian soil.

Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to the Ayatollah Khamenei recently said: "Whether they want to or not, the Americans must leave Syria."

It just so happens that the United States wants to leave Syria as was announced by US President Donald J. Trump. The question is when.

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Europe Not Buying Oil from Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 6, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is trying to understand why European nations have not started to buy their oil.

In November, eight European nations received an official waver from the United States permitting them to buy oil from Iran. None of them have taken advantage of their waivers.

Fars, an official Iranian news agency, posted the comments of Bijan Zanganeh, Iran's Oil Minister. He said that they have been in contact with the Europeans and there has been no movement or interest. "[W]e have called them many times, but they do not return our calls." He was probably referring to Greece and Italy.

There are several interesting lessons that we must learn from this.

First, US sanctions are hurting Iran. Second, the countries that get permission to trade with Iran are still reluctant to do so because of feared backlash from the United States.

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Dogs Outlawed in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 5, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has prohibited walking dogs in public. Dogs are considered to be evil in Iran. And according to Iranians, the fact that the West embraces dogs is a sign of their backward nature.

Hossein Rahimi, Teheran's chief of police said: "Certain people who bring their dogs to public places cause panic and anxiety among the public." He added that local police have obtained permission from the judiciary to confront dog owners who walk their pets in public.

"People who walk their dogs in public places shall be dealt with severely."

Dogs will also be banned from cars, Rahimi said, underlining that "police will seriously confront dog owners who let their dogs ride in their cars."

Iran wants to discourage all dog ownership.

In 2010, A senior Iranian religious leader issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, that dogs were "unclean" and not to be kept as pets. "Friendship with dogs is a blind imitation of the West," Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi said. "There are lots of people in the West who love their dogs more than their wives and children."

Despite it all, especially among Tehran's middle class, dog lovers persist and they continue to own pets.

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Russia to Host Iran and Turkey Summit
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 4, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On February 14th Russia will host a summit with Iran and Turkey in their Back Sea resort.

The objective of the summit is to devise solutions to the problem called Syria.

Russia and Iran want the Syrian regime to continue under the leadership of Bashar Assad.

Turkey wants to oust Assad.

Turkey is not alone. NATO and the United States are working to remove Assad from power.

Is there any real hope that a possible resolution will emerge from the Summit? Highly doubtful.

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IDF Admits Hezbollah Poised to Attack
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The head the IDF commented on Hezbollah and he gave an important threat assessment.

Major General Aviv Kochavi explained that: "Only several dozens of kilometers from here, beyond our northern border, there is a terror organization that is set to harm Israel and its resilience, an organization that strives to use precision-guided weapons against us and aims to invade our territory and launch rockets and missiles at Israeli civilians, all the while blatantly violating international agreements and the rules of warfare."

There is no surprise that Hezbollah wants to attack Israel. What is new is that the head of the IDF is talking about it.

Israel is preparing to defending itself against border crossings where the terror group is planning to strike Israel.

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Olymipics Punish Malaysia for Banning Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 31, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Malaysia has said that they will not permit any Israelis to entire their country to compete in the International Paralympics swimming championships which they were supposed to host and were to take place from July 29 thru August 4.

The International Paralympics Committee (IPC) has now announced that they are pulling the events out of Malaysia. Other countries have until February 9 to propose hosting the events in place of Malaysia.

"Politics and sport are never a good mix," said IPC President Andrew Parsons in a statement. "We are disappointed that Israeli athletes would not have been allowed to compete in Malaysia."

"All World Championships must be open to all eligible athletes and nations to compete safely and free from discrimination," said Parsons. "When a host country excludes athletes from a particular nation, for political reasons, then we have absolutely no alternative but to look for a new Championships host."

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Russian Leaders Meet Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 30, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

One way to understand the important directions and strategies of a government is to look at their guest logs. Knowing who visited with the leadership and when they visited offers up a treasure trove of information.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with a delegation of senior Russian officials yesterday in order to discuss the situation in Syria. Details about the meeting were supplied by Netanyahu's office.

The Israeli prime minister met with Russia's Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev, and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin. The prime minister's office announced that the talks focused on Iran, Syria and "strengthening the security coordination mechanism between the militaries."

There has been a significant amount of tension between Israel and Russia over the past few months. The tensions increased after Israel took credit for carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets and Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah.

Israel and Russia maintain a hotline to prevent their air forces from conflicting, especially over Syrian skies. While, for the most part, the hotline has worked, a Syrian anti=aircraft missile aimed at an Israeli plane last September instead shot down a Russian transport plane and Russia blames Israel for the debacle.

This meeting was important. It bodes well for the relationship between Israel and Russia.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 29, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, second in command of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened Israel and warned not to attack in Syria again. The comments were made in the aftermath of last week's Israeli attack on Iranian targets in Syria.

As quoted by Syrian state television, Salami said: "We announce that if Israel takes any action to wage a war against us, it will definitely lead to its own elimination and the freeing of occupied (Palestinian) territories."

Speaking at a ceremony inducting Aviv Kochavi, the new head of the IDF, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu responded to Salami. The prime minister said: "I heard the statement made by Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman that they have no military presence in Syria, only advisors ... so I advise them to get out of there quickly, because we will continue our aggressive policy in the region as we've promised."

Most of this is rhetoric - but threats can have a real impact.

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Israel Sends Rescue Team to Brazil
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 28, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday a dam collapsed in the southern region of Brazil leaving at least 40 dead and more than 200 people missing. The dam was not just holding back water, it was holding back mining waste and was highly poisonous.

Almost immediately, Israel sent a team of rescue specialists to help find the victims. The Israeli crew is 130 strong and includes a highly trained team of rescue dogs.

Brazil's President Bolsonaro spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Saturday to inform him of the magnitude of the disaster and within 24 hours an emergency team boarded an El Al Charter flight for Brazil.

Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, also a politician, tweeted about Israel coming to Brazil's aid. He wrote: "thanks during this difficult time ... Israel does this because it is a friendly country. It was always around, but was always mistreated by former governments ... Excuse me, but for all the bad guys on duty, you just have keep quiet and look how much good comes of this approach."

Brazil and Israel have a very good relationship.

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France End Arounds Iranian Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 25, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

We knew it was happening - now France has made it official.
France has put into place a system to circumvent US sanctions against Iran.

The basic principle is simple. France is creating a non dollar base trade exchange with Iran. This trade with Iran is totally outside the realm of US regulators.

The US system is based on dollars that move through world markets. So if the French/EU system is independent of dollars - then it will be free of the heavy US restrictions.

This new system was announced by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Wednesday and it is totally backed by the Europeans.
Le Drian said that it "should be implemented in the coming days."

This end around US sanctions could have huge implications for US sanctions.
It could be the template for many others to follow and a way to avoid the wrath of the United States by those who insist on dealing with Iran.

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Iran Discovers More Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 24, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Surprise - Iran has discovered oil on an island named Abandan. The island is located on a river 35 miles north of the Persian Gulf, just at the nexus where Iran meets Iraq.

The oil was discovered about 4000 yards below the surface. According to the Iranian oil minister, it is the first time they have found oil in this region. There was no public statement as to how large the newly discovered oil reserve is.

The news was reported in Mehr, an official Iranian news site. Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh called the oil discovery "very light and sweet."
Of course now Iran has to try to sell the oil.

President Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, posted a message on his official website. He wrote: "With regard to oil issues, luckily we are pursuing various paths and roads for selling oil and we bypass American sanctions with pride."

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Germany Bans Iranian Airline
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 22, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Germany has discovered a spy in their military and as a result the Germans have banned an Iranian airline from entry into Germany.

The airline is called Mahan Air and Germany asserts that Mahan air has shuttled spies and other tools and equipment back and forth into and out of Germany.

They specifically say that the airline is connected to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Guard has direct connection to terror that has taken place in Europe.

In addition over the past year there have been several plots by Iranians to assassinate people in France and Denmark. These included a bomb plot to mass murder people in an anti Iranian rally in France.

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Israeli Elections-Ganz
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 20, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli elections are kicking off and it is spending some time looking at a political newcomer.

Benny Ganz, former head of the IDF, has launched his campaign.

Ganz's party is called "Y'Israel Lifnei HaKol". The simple translation is "Israel Before Everything". The translation that better conveys the sentiment behind the simple words would be "Israel is Our Priority".

Ganz sent out a very short video clip in which he says: "For me, Israel comes before everything. Join me and we will launch on a new path because we need something different and we will create something different. The screen then flashes the slogan Y'Israel Lifnei HaKol.

The video closes with Ganz saying he thinks he has "already said too much."

I disagree. In fact, Ganz has said too little. No plan. No ideas. No anything. Just a slogan.

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ISIS Kidnaps a Christian
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 18, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS strikes in Egypt again. This time in the Northern part of Sinai where they are free to do as they wish.

The standard targets in ISSI attacks in Egypt are Christians. In addition to kidnapping Christians ISIS attacks churches.

In this case ISIS kidnapped a Christian adult male. He was in a share a ride taxi.

The police were on site in seconds and the police chased the terrorists. One terrorist was killed and 3 wounded. Two police were also wounded in the crossfire.

For ISIS and all extremists Muslims killing a Christian is a goal.

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Malaysia Bans Israeli Athletes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 17, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Malaysia has decided to both uninvite and not invite Israelis to every sporting event they host.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the cabinet affirmed last week that no Israeli athletes will be permitted to enter Malaysia for sporting or other events in solidarity with Palestinians.

"The Cabinet has also decided that Malaysia will not host any more events involving Israel or its representatives. This is to me, a decision to reflect the government's firm stance over the Israeli issue."

"Even if we have already committed to hosting an event, they (Israeli athletes) will not be allowed (into the country)," Saifuddin said in a recording of a press conference heard by Reuters.

"It's about fighting on behalf of the oppressed,"he said.

The next sporting event taking place in Malaysia is the world para-swimming competition. It takes place July 29 to August 4 and 70 countries will compete. Israel will not be there. Israel has been uninvited.

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Israel is Growing
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It's January 2019.

It is important to show a few important numbers that help us understand Israel.

There are nearly 9 million people living in Israel. 74.3% of the population is Jewish while 20.9% is Arab.

185,000 babies were born in 2018 and 40,000 people came to live in Israel.

The country population increased by 174,000 or 2% during 2018.

There were 45,000 deaths in Israel and 7,000 Israelis left Israel to live elsewhere.

Overall the numbers are impressive.

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China Arms Sales to MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 15, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

China has increased its sales of weapons to the Middle East. This past year they sold 13 billion in arms sales.

That is an increase from 1.4 billion in the 2010. That means that China is one of the most significant arms dealers in the region.

This worries Israel for many reasons. Other than the sheer quantity of the weapons - most worrisome is that China has no limits when it comes to weapons sales. There are no checks and balances on their sales.

Another major worry is that this influx of weapons to the region including to Iran will alter the status quo and lend support to parties and governments that are true enemies of Israel.

This new Chinese weapons position ultimately confirms the reality that China is not trustworthy in the region.

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Iraq Opens A Virtual Israeli Embassy
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 14, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Attitudes toward Israel are changing in the Arab world. It's not news, it's the reality.

Here is the latest example: Iraq has opened a virtual Israeli embassy. The embassy was created by a movement called Project Blue Future, it is one of the very many ways the Arab world is interested in reaching out to Israel.

Ali A., the representative of the Project explained it this way: "Project Bright Future was founded in 2011 to establish relations with Israel on the basis of friendship and common interests, ... Our mission is to prepare the ground for this strategic relationship by establishing channels of communication. We believe that Israel is not our enemy."

If nothing else, Project Blue Future offers hope for the future, hope that there is potential for a great future for Israel and the Middle East.

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Abbas To Squeeze Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 13, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is poised for national elections on April 9th. In political terms, that is a lifetime away. There is so much that can alter the election prognosis in these next three months.

Just think about the Palestinian issue and how that can impact the Israeli election.

PA leader Mahmoud Abbas is set to put the squeeze on Hamas. The Palestinian Authority dumps about $100 million per month into Gaza, most of it to cover electricity and salaries. Abbas wants to put a stop to that aid. He wants Gazans to suffer and come begging to him for help. Abbas has made comments indicating that if Gazans want to self govern, they must assume the responsibility of governing.

Abbas also plans on withdrawing PA officers at the borders. If that happens, it will it will effectively starve Gaza. Egypt negotiated that PA officers patrol the border with Egypt and Israel was happy with that deal. The PA was committed to keeping weapons out of Gaza. If they pull their patrols off the border, Israel will force the border to be closed.

Abbas, a staunch advocate of paying prisoners cum terrorists for their deeds, is going to stop paying Hamas prisoners. And he is going to stop paying Hamas employees.

Most significant of all is that Abbas is going to rescind the Palestinian Authority passports and travel documents of Hamas employees. That will effectively keep Hamas leadership stewing in Gaza.

Responding to press reports of Abbas' plans, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim seemed unfazed and said that there was nothing new here.

He said: "Any type of sanctions such as electricity, preventing medicine, closing the border or cutting the salaries are intended to blackmail residents into rising against Hamas and they fail ... This is the most that Abbas can do."

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Israel Nixed Arms Deal w Croatia
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 11, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just nixed a half billion dollar arms deal with Croatia. The director general of Israel's ministry of defense former general Udi Adam flew to Crotia to inform them personally that the deal would not be realized.

The deal was for 12 F-16's Barak fighter jets that Israel bought from the US 30 years ago.

The US forced Israel to nix the deal.

The US needed to approve Israel's re-sale of a US weapons to a third party ... in this case Croatia. Why does the US care about 30 year old technology?

It was not the US technology that the US was worried about. It was the Israeli upgrades in the radar and sophisticated technology.

The US is worried about the Israeli technology. But the US is most afraid that countries will prefer the superior Israeli version of the F-16 and it will undercut the US weapons sales.

The US is 100%.

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Israel Says 3rd Party Hacking Elections
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 9, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

The head of Israel's internal Security Service known as the Shin Bet said that a third party country is attempting to influence the Israeli national elections scheduled for April 9.

Nadav Argaman the head of the Shin Bet added that, "[s]hould the need arise, Israel and its community intelligence have the tools and the ability to detect, monitor, and thwart attempts of foreign countries to influence the April elections."

This is important. Israel is constantly the target of cyber attacks. Israel tracks hackers and hacking tools.

Israel is also watching and playing the hacking game with the best hackers in the world. They are playing both sides. They are world class hackers while at the same time they are world class defenders.

Israeli hackers know the weapons that hackers are using and they are on the lookout for the attack and punching back at the hackers.

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Fatah Cancels Gaza Rally in Fear
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 8, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Internal tensions are high in the Palestinian world.

A rally march organized to celebrate the 1959 founding of Fatah, the original Palestinian movement, was cancelled. The Fatah supporters living in Gaza wanted to march in Gaza.

The March was cancelled because of internal tensions - Fatah was afraid that Hamas was going to crack down on them. They had reason to be fearful. Leading up to the rally, 500 members of Fatah leadership were arrested.

Gaza is controlled by Hamas and Fatah lives in fear. Not just in Gaza. Hamas is growing in popularity in the West Bank, the once-upon-a-time enclave of the Palestinian Authority.

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Iranian Russian Maneuvers in The Caspian
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 7, 2019

I've Been Thinking:
Iran and Russia are planning their third set of naval exercises. The first took place in 2015 the second in 2017.

This operation will take place soon and they will use the Caspian Sea.

The Caspian Sea is the largest inland lake in the world. It is 640 miles long and 270 miles wide. No surprise - 2 of the countries that abut the Caspian Sea are Iran and Russia. They

The Sea is rich in natural gas and oil and both countries have created many oil and gas rigs there. Both Russia and Iran know that the Caspian is an ideal area for natural resource development.

These naval maneuvers follow a tremendous multi-national deal over control of the Caspian. The final agreement resolves a conflict over the natural resources. Since 1991 the Caspian has been in dispute. Russia take the lion share.

Now matters have been resolved and Russian and Iran are working together.

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Red Dead Water Project
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 3, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Jordan are moving ahead on the Red Sea Dead Sea Project.

The purpose of the Project is to bring water from the Red Sea and desalinate it. The byproduct of the desalination, known as brine, will be sent north about 130 miles, to the Dead Sea.

Salty brine will help refill the shrinking Dead Sea.

The newly desalinated water will then be sent to Jordan, Israel's 50/50 partner in this project and it will help solve Jordan's extreme water shortage. Each country is putting up a mere $40 million each year to solve two huge water problems.

The Red Sea Dead Sea Project is a perfect example of how cooperation can help neighbors and the environment, all at the same time.

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Russia Takes Over MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 2, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Russia decided to make their Middle East presence know to everyone.

So the Russians took center stage by pushing the United States out of the position they had been occupying for a long time.

They did it with very little. They did it via media coverage.

Russia has been driving coverage in the Middle East. They are constantly featured as the centerpiece. And while it may not be true - it is the perception. The perception is driving the reality.

And they did it via the sale of weapons.

Russia is selling weapons to the players in the Middle East. Militant groups and entire countries are grateful for the weapons and the training they are receiving. Russian soldiers and contractors are swarming all over the Middle East.

And they did it going the business route.

Russia is driving contracts and business deals. These deals are essential in developing the Middle East. Coverage of the business deals is plastered in the media. And they are bringing in their own Russian investors.

Each of these four actions by the Russian, in and of themselves, is small. Together, they pack a big wallop and turn into a winning combination.

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Bolton to the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 1, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump's National Security Adviser, John Bolton, is getting ready to take off on a trip to Israel and Turkey. The visit is schedule for the beginning of January.

The topic of discussion during Bolton's trip will, undoubtedly, be Syria. The Palestinian question, also undoubtedly, will not be raised.

In Turkey Bolton will be joined by Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and by James Jeffrey, the secretary of state's special representative for Syria.

Bolton has a long standing relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Neither one of them will shy away from raising difficult questions. The most important they will discuss is whether or not the United States is really going to pull out of Syria.


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Another US PA Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

In January 2019 the US Anti-Terrorism Clarification Act will go into effect.

This act forbids the giving of US aid to any group linked to terror and permits US citizens to sue on behalf of victims of terror.

In October the Trump administration suspended $210 million dollars in aid to the Palestinians. Now in question is $61million more that goes to Palestinian security operations.

That money includes all the monies that go to sponsoring joint Israeli/Palestinian security cooperation.

The Palestinian security apparatus has been accused of involvement in terror. And in the end the Palestinians may actually decline the aid. They do not want to be embarrassed in front of the entire world by public lawsuits.

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Kurds Ask Russia for Help
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Kurds in Syria are running around trying to fill the vacuum in their defense shield that was created by President Trump announcing that he was pulling out US troops.

Yes -- there are only 2000 troops but their presence in Syria and their training protected of the Kurds guarded the Kurds from the Turks who see the Kurds as terrorists.

As a result of the US decision, the Kurds have asked the Russians to serve as their new protectors. No word yet on Russia's response. So the Kurds went to Assad with the same request.

Russia could easily simply tell Turkey to keep away. It would be as easy and a simple phone call. But will Russia get involved? Probably not. Russia will need Turkey later -- and they will not risk making this request because the issue of the Kurds is a very low priority to Russia.

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Iran is Selling its Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran released a report making it public that they are having no difficulty selling their crude oil.

Since the United States snapped sanctions back on Iran, we have all been wondering how Iran would manage. Now we know.

Here's how they're doing it.

Private contractors - even some Jewish contractors, are supplying the world with Iranian crude oil. According to the report 3 million barrels of oil could be sold every day on the open market.

Oil is fungible. It is the most fungible item in the world. Once it is no longer underground and it is in the market, it is impossible to track.

And that's how they Iranians are doing it.

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Rocket Shot into Israel from Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Syria, or perhaps Iran, launched a rocket into Israel on Tuesday night.
The rocket was launched in response to Israel striking at Hezbollah and Iranian arms depots southwest of Damascus, Syria. The rocket was launched into Israel as a counter measure.

Israel intercepted the rocket and it exploded in mid-air. By the time it was exploded, the rocket had already reached Hadera. That means that the missile had made its way deep into Israel.

Had it not been intercepted, had it struck a populated area, this could have caused devastating destruction and deaths in Israel.

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White House Won't Announce Plan til After Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

By now almost everyone who cares about the Middle East knows that Israel will have early elections on April 19, 2019.

Early elections have consequences. These elections are 7 months before their original scheduled time.

So far, the most dramatic results of having early elections in Israel came out of the White House. They announced that early elections in April will impact the date of the announcement of their famous peace plan.

The reason should be obvious.

The Trump White house does not want to set back any progress. An announcement from the White House might change the results of the election in Israel.

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Honduras to Move Embassy for a Price
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Honduras has decided to relocate their embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

But , there's a big "but" there. Honduras has several conditions that need to be met in exchange for the move.

Honduras knows the importance Israel places on embassies moving to their capital. So Honduras is taking advantage of the leverage they now hold.

They are asking that the Israelis upgrade their diplomatic mission in Honduras to a full fledged embassy. In addition, they are asking that Honduras receive Israeli hi-tech initiatives and programs that will help them advance in computer technology across the national spectrum which includes defense and medical capabilities.

The annual cost of an Israeli embassy is $1million. This is a small price for Israel to pay considering the benefits they will receive in return.

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Belgian Soccer Fans Sing "Burn Jews"
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

During a soccer match, a Belgian team sang a pep song glorifying burning Jews.

The team from the city of Brugge, about 40 miles from Brussels, has a history of anti-Semitic acts.

La Derniere Heure, a Belgian newspaper and website, posted video of the game which took place on August 20th. The video shows dozens of fans celebrating their local team’s victory by singing in Flemish: "My father was in the commandos, my mother was in the SS, together they burned Jews 'cause Jews burn the best."

These kinds of antics are typical of Europe - especially of the soccer culture.

European Jewish leadership is calling on soccer club owners to step up their game and fight anti-Semitism. They are also calling on political leadership to create a plan to combat anti-Semitism.

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Why US Def Sec Quit
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned. He handed in his letter of resignation soon after President Trump announced that the United States was withdrawing all US troops from Syria and that the war against ISIS was won.

Mattis' letter made no mention of the withdrawal.

But when reading the letter, it seems obvious that the decision was the last straw for a Defense Secretary whose voice and advise was not being seriously considered.

Mattis wrote: "you have a right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours."

He also does mention that his philosophy of keeping American safe includes supporting regional allies. He wrote that America First does not seem to go well with his strategy of protecting allies.

There are definitely winners and losers in the US withdrawal. ISIS is actually one of the winners. They gain a real sense of satisfaction that they - though diminished - are still standing while the United States has left.

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Lebanon Asks UN Sec Council to Condemn Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon officially asked the United Nations Security Council to condemn Israel and require that Israel respect their international border and their sovereign territory.

Israel is in Southern Lebanon in order to discover and identify terror tunnels.

They have already discovered and are destroying four tunnels.

In addition, they documented the tunnels and learned the strategy and direction of the tunnels and their designers.

It is clear that international law permits a country to cross another's border in order to defend itself.

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Hamas Beats Abbas in New Poll
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

According to the latest Palestinian poll, Hamas will defeat the Palestinian Authority in an election.

The poll encompassed Gaza and the West Bank and involved 1,200 people. It would make sense that Hamas would win in Gaza - but in the West Bank?

The poll was specifically about the leaders of the two governments, it was about Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh versus the PA's Mahmoud Abbas.

Haniyeh trounced Abbas. 49% Haniyeh to 42% Abbas.

The poll was conducted by Khalil Shikaki, a very reputable pollster. Shikaki founded and heads the Palestinian Center for Policy Survey Research. He is also on faculty at Brandeis University in Boston. His methodology and his science are exceptional. My only critique is that his sample is way too large.

The most important take away from this poll is that Abbas is on the wane. His days, as they say, are numbered.

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Russia & Israel on the Mend
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the relationship between Russia and Israel is on the mend.

This week Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Israel's head of the Jewish Agency, Isaac Herzog.

Herzog is said to have an excellent relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. so the information that was exchanged certainly made its way directly to Russian president Putin and Israeli leader Netanyahu.

For the past few months there has been almost no real Russian / Israeli interaction. This was the result of a Russian plane downed by Syrians that Russia claimed happened because of Israel.

Russia and Israel need one another. Tensions between the two make it unsafe for everyone.

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Christians Leaving the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 17,2018

I've Been Thinking:

Christians continue to leave the Middle East.

Christians are feeling threatened and they have the financial capabilities to pull up roots and leave the Middle East and set up new homes elsewhere in the world.

It is a trend that began about 15 or 20 years ago. It's happening in Syria. It's happening in Iraq. It's happening in Bethlehem - and in great numbers.

Thirty years ago Bethlehem had a population with a significant Christian majority. Today the numbers in Bethlehem are so sparse that according to estimates Christians compose a mere 10%-15% of the population. Some say the numbers are even smaller.

This trend is happening across the Arab world.

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Ukraine Honors Jewish Mass Murderer
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Ukrainian government has declared 2019 the Year of Honoring Stepan Bandera. Ukraine will celebrate the 110th year of his birth.

Bandera was a Ukrainian nationalist who lived from 1909 - 1959.

The problem with this celebration is that Bandera was also a notorious mass murderer of Jews during WWII who joined forces with the Nazis.

Under Bandera's leadership and direction Jews were "removed and relocated" which means - murdered. In Ukraine Jews were murdered in mass killing pits.

The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine, Joel Lion, stood up and protested celebrating this murderer as a hero. He was shocked by the government’s decision and said: "I can't understand how the glorification of those directly involved in horrible anti-Semitic crimes helps fight anti-Semitism and xenophobia. Ukraine shouldn't forget those crimes committed against Ukrainian Jews and in no way celebrate them."

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Anti Semitic Books at Int Bk Fair
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The International Book Fair in Doha, Qatar is famous for its sheer size. People and dealers, merchants and publishers come from all over the world to scout new books and products.

This year the Book Fair took place between November 29 and Dec 8, 2018. Over 30 countries participated, featuring over 100,000 titles. The United States was represented, they even had a booth.

Imagine the shock when books with titles like "The Lies Jews Spread" and "The Myth of Nazi Gas Chambers" and "Talmud of Secrets: Exposing The Jewish Schemes to Control the World" were featured at the Fair.

It did not stop there.

Old evil books like Henry Ford's "International Jew" which draws heavily on the infamous "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" were also present at the Book Fair in Doha.

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Muslims the World Over Take Israel Courses on Line
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

This is the age of computer education. Courses of all types are offered for free by leading scholars. Just sign on and learn.
Bar Ilan University, one of Israel’s leading institutions of higher learning, offers a superb selection of courses. One course is on Biblical Archeology.

People from all over the world have signed on - including students from Pakistan, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. These students are from countries that do not recognize Israel.

The course is filled with on-location virtual, or video, visits to archeological sites. Students read and watch and even ask questions. There is also a dialogue board where all the participants can get involved and learn from the interaction.

This is the beauty of the internet.

Yes, some websites can be blocked by certain countries. But most servers are not in their host countries and can be ghosted in order to avoid being blocked. That's another one of the beauties of the internet.

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Australia to Recognize Jerusalem as Israel's Capital
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

There were reports on Australian media, on Tuesday, broadcasting that Australia will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Recognizing, however, is not the same thing as moving your embassy to Jerusalem.

It seems that there is real pressure on Australia from Muslim countries stopping the actual transfer of the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, Brazil is moving ahead with their decision to both recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and to move their embassy to Jerusalem.

The Brazilians, too, have received serious threats from Muslim and Arab countries. The Arab League even made an announcement that Brazil's move will impact relations with all members of the Arab League.

Nonetheless, Brazil is standing firm and proceeding with their move.

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Iran Hit Squads
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Daily Telegraph of Great Britain published a piece announcing that Iran has a series of hit squads assassinating their enemies in Iraq.

The reason for the Iranian attacks on their targets is simple - they are public critics of Iran.

The paper brings a series of examples to prove their point. Quoting a senior British security official, the Telegraph writes: "Iran in intensifying its campaign of intimidation against the Iraqi government by using assassination squads to silence critics of Tehran."

He continues: "This is a blatant attempt to thwart efforts by the new Iraqi government to end Iran's meddling in Iraq."

There should be no doubt. The Iranians are aggressively tamping down on anyone who challenges Iran.

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Iran & OPEC
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC is asking their members to reduce output.

Iran is saying no. No, they will not reduce their output.

"It's a red line for Iran to reduce its production, to contribute to a new cut in production. Iran hasn't produced any more oil in the previous months and it's not Iran's responsibility to manage the situation," Bijan Zanganeh, Iran's oil minister said on CNBC.

"It's the responsibility of the countries that have produced more and more and have collapsed the market with more oil and extra oil and Iran has no responsibility for this situation," he added.

He repeated, "It's a red line for Iran not to cut one barrel ... Iran should be excluded from any decision."

Did anyone really expect any other response from Iran?

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Collecting $ for Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The US has collected $325 million from allied countries to help rebuild Syria. In the big picture, $325 million is not even close to the sum of money needed to rebuild Syria.

$100 million came from Saudi Arabia.

This funding move refers directly to rebuilding Syria from the destruction caused by battling ISIS. The money will be used to stabilize the northern areas in Syria.

The United States is trying to re-establish the coalition they built to wipe out ISIS. This is one step in the process.

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Chess Fed Stands Up Against Israel Boycotts
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It's finally happening.

The international Chess Federation (FIDE) put their foot down and punished Saudi Arabia for not issuing Israelis visas to compete in a world championship that they were hosting.

The FIDE warned Saudi Arabia to permit Israelis and when the Saudis did not bow to the pressure, FIDE moved the championship to Russia.

It would be wonderful if other international sports organizations followed this example and showed the leadership that FIDE has just shown.

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98 Iranian Fake News Sites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 2, 2108

I've Been Thinking:

A cyber investigative report was just issued by ClearSky, a cybertech security firm in Tel Aviv.

The results should not surprise you.

The details are very telling.

Iran is operating fake news sites around the world and funneling news and information through those sites to influence opinion. Many of the sites have names that include the words "Times", "Journal" and "News".
ClearSky discovered 98 such Iranian fronts, in 29 languages, in 28 different countries.

They were easy to discover because the registration information and contact information on many of the sites were Iranian. The obvious targets of the Iranian ploy were the Middle East and Asia. But they also have sites that target the US and Europe. They even have a site in Hebrew targeting Israelis. The Israeli site is called the Tel Aviv Times.

The sites often rewrite real news and portray Iran positively. They also include cultural and other sections with less propaganda and spin.
This is taking fake news to an entirely different level. This is propaganda masquerading as news.

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A/S at Columbia
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

A Columbia University professor's office was sprayed with swastikas and other anti-Semitic symbols. At 11:30 in the morning she walked into her office with a group of students about to begin their psych lab and they were stunned and shaken.

The professor, Elizabeth Midlarsky, is a professor at Teachers College at Columbia. She is a psychology professor who also writes about the Holocaust.

The images were sprayed in red spray paint. Two were swastikas and one was the word "Yid" which is a derogatory word for Jew.

Columbia is an Ivy League school. It is on the Upper West Side of Manhattan a haven of Jewish life. Hardly a place where one might expect this. But it is also a bastion of anti-Semitism.

Universities are supposed to be place where ideas are freely debated. However, this kind of vandalism and defacing property as well as writing anti-Semitic graffiti is frightening.

They scrawl this images in order to instill fear.

Hopefully they will find the people who did this and punish them.

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Iranian Hackers Indicted in US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Two Iranian hackers were indicted in the US yesterday. Two other Iranian hackers were sanctioned.

These four are allegedly responsible for the SamSam Hack. The SamSam Hack attacks a computer system and then encrypts all its files. The hackers then send a message to the computer explaining that if they pay in bitcoin, the files will be unlocked.

As a matter of good faith the hackers unlock one file.

Through this method SamSam hackers have extorted over $6 million and caused over $30 million in damage.

The cities of Newark and Atlanta have been brought to their knees. These hackers have attacked hospitals and universities and cities and courts.

They even caused the Port of San Diego to be ground to a halt.

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US Ambassador Visits the Belzer Rebbe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, visited the Belzer Rebbe, The Grand Rabbi Yissachar Dov Rokeach.

The US Ambassador told the Grand Rebbe that US President Trump and his advisers all love Israel.

Friedman said: "President Trump and all his advisors are lovers of Israel and want peace in Israel. But it will only happen with the grace of Heaven because the peoples want peace, but the terror leaders are setting fire all the time."

He explained that Trump wants peace but terror leaders are setting the tone.

Friedman also praised the Rebbe for rebuilding his community after the Holocaust.

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Czech President in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Czech President Milos Zeman is on an official trip to Israel. He visited Jerusalem and spoke in the Knesset.

In his address Zeman explained that he will do everything to help move his embassy to Jerusalem. The plan is to move the embassy to the Czech Cultural Center which is right next to the Cinamateque, an unofficial Jerusalem landmark.

In his speech to the Knesset, Czech President Milos Zeman's offered insight into European attitudes towards Israel. He criticized European "fear and doubt in supporting Israel."

Zeman said: "It is important and necessary to express our solidarity with Israel, since betraying Israel means betraying ourselves."

This is another in a series of examples of heroes stepping up and supporting Israel because, well, because it is the right thing to do.

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Chad Pres Visits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Chad, Idriss Deby, has visited Israel. The visit is newsworthy because Chad broke off diplomatic relations with Israel in 1972.

Upon arrival, the president of Chad met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In a joint press conference Netanyahu said: "The fact that you, the leader of an important African country, is coming to Israel to renew our friendship and our relationship, I think is a testament of what is going to happen with other such countries in Africa as well."

We are in a new diplomatic era.

African countries, Muslim countries, are reaching out to Israel - in friendship.

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Money From Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has received millions of dollars in aid from Qatar. The exact number, according to media coverage, is $18 million dollars.

Media coverage also says that the money they received was going to directly to pay for fuel.

Musa Abu Marzuq, a senior Hamas leader, was interviewed on Turkish media. When Abu Marzuq spoke about the transfer of Qatari funds to Gaza and said that the money "directly reached 50,000 poor families."

Abu Marzuq added that "most of the Palestinian factions are in agreement regarding a ceasefire arrangement with Israel." He did, however, also add that "the March of Return protests will continue until the blockade is completely lifted."

There is no way to know if Abu Marzuq's assessment is accurate.

Hamas has started to discuss a cease fire with Egypt to bring about a stable new status quo. But even if a cease fire with Israel is called, it is doubtful that it will be successful.

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Explosive Balloons Landing Far From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An explosive balloon, with a Palestinian flag attached, fell into a small moshav named M'lea located in the Gilboa region of Israel.

The Gilboa is 100 miles from Gaza. Moshav M'lea is located just a few miles away. It is just outside the northernmost part of Samaria and very close to Afula.

These balloons are becoming, more and more, a common weapon. They are being launched from all over the Palestinian territories. And they are being sent anywhere in Israel where Jews are living.

This time, Israelis sappers were called in and they diffused the explosive balloon.

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Impact of New Iran Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The new sanctions against Iran have been having an impact. Iran is having difficulty importing the materials for their products.

Factories are shutting down companies are firing workers. Reuters ran a series of interviews with small business owners and each and every one bemoaned the current situation.

Unemployment in Iran is officially at 12.3%. But employment among young people 25%. This is particularly devastating because 60 percent of the 80 million people are under 30 years old.

In addition, unemployment among higher educated Iranians is over 50%.

Sanctions are hurting Iran -- but know that they are also hurting Iranians.

The hope is that the pain of the sanctions will urge the Iranian leadership to change their approach to the world. The question is whether or not they care.

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Hezbollah Prepping For War
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Things are looking bad in the south of Israel along the Gaza border.

Israeli communities - towns and cities - wait in fear of the next series of rockets or kites or balloons coming at them from Gaza.

Meanwhile, in the North of Israel, Hezbollah is digging in and preparing to attack.

That, at least, is the evaluation of Israel's IDF Head of the Northern Command Major General Yoel Strik who said: "although Assad is stabilizing, we still face challenges ... Hezbollah is building infrastructure in the Syrian Golan ... We can see Iranian attempts to base themselves around the country."

When the Head of Israel's Northern Command says that the Hezbollah is digging in and that Iran is involved, we should all take notice.

Obviously this is all happening independent of the new relative stability in Syria and independent of Russian involvement.

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Macy's Parade in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On the first night of Chanukah -- December 3, 2018 -- in Jerusalem, the Macy Thanksgiving Day Parade will take place. Of course it will still take place in NYC on Thanksgiving.

But this year the famous parade is going on the road. The parade will take place just outside the walls of the old city of Jerusalem in the area of Sultan's Pools.

Kong Fu Panda along with Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck will attend. Newer balloons like Pokeman and Spiderman will also be there.

The parade is being sponsored by the Ministry for Diaspora Affairs.
The ministry wants to build bridges and especially since the massacre of Jews in their synagogue in Pittsburgh. There are actually plans to bring a delegation from Jewish Pittsburgh to join the parade.

At this point gestures are important.

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Calls to Boycott Sabra Hummus
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is constantly being attacked. Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) is constantly trying to needle Israel.

George Mason University(GMU) in Virginia has a BDS student movement that is sending around a petition to ban Sabra Hummus. They want Sabra products off campus because Sabra sppports the IDF.

The students petition says "In accordance with the call issued by
Palestinian civil society for a boycott, divestment, and sanctions campaign against the benefactors of the illegal occupation, we demand that you cease to stock, offer, and buy the Sabra family of products. Sabra Hummus is co-owned by the Strauss group, which support the Israeli Defense Forces' Golani and Givati Brigades."

GMU is not the first university to attempt to ban Sabra.

Princeton and University of Ottawa has already unsuccessfully attempted to ban Sabra. The call failed for several reasons. Primarily because boycotts are illegal. It also failed because people like Sabra Hummus.

The petition links to specific IDF brigades. That is curious. The reason for the link is that Sabra's parent company Straus and PepsiCo sent care packages to soldiers in those companies.

These boycotts are without real merit. The students from GMU are targeting a company from White Plains, NY. Even if it was an Israeli company -- boycotts are not effective and of course they are illegal.

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Czech FM Visits Western Wall
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Czech Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek visited the Western Wall. He was escorted by Israel's ambassador to Prague, Daniel Meron.

This visit enraged Palestinian leadership. They assert that it was a violation of tradition and protocol. They said that third parties should not recognize areas that are in dispute - like East Jerusalem.

The official Czech response is that their foreign minister is in Israel for the 6th annual Czech -Israel Forum. He will also visit the Czech House near the Cinemateque movie theatre. The Czech House is the planned space for the Czech embassy when it moves to Jerusalem.

This trip is more than a simple visit. It is paving the way for moving the Czech embassy to Jerusalem. That is what irks Palestinian leadership the most.

All of these are very good signs from the perspective of Israelis and Czechs.

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Hamas Rockets Killed Palestinian
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas launched over 300 rockets, their intention is to to kill as many Israeli Jews as possible.

As fate would have it, one person was killed by the barrage. That one person is Mahmoud Abbash Asba, a 48 year old construction contractor. He was the only victim - and he is not an Israeli at all. Asba lived in Halhul, an Arab village one mile north of Hebron in the West Bank. Mahmoud Abbash Asba was a Palestinian.

The irony is striking.

Hamas terrorists try to murder as many Jews as possible and instead, they murder a Palestinian from Halhul.

Asba would sleep in Ashkelon near his work site during the week and go home on Friday to be with his family. He was in Israel illegally.

Hamas continues to claim that they shot their rockets into Israel to defend Palestinians. What they are is murderers, the murderers of Palestinians.

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Yesterday Was Tough Day for Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

For Israel, yesterday was the worst of days since 2014.
Yesterday, Hamas launched over 300 rockets into Israel. That many rockets in one day were last launched into Israel four years ago.

Israel struck back hitting over 70 Hamas targets.

50 Israelis were hospitalized. Almost all were suffering from shock.
Three of those injured suffered physical injury.

When Israelis are injured and when rocket fire from Gaza increases to new heights, history tells us that Israel will respond with an increase in force.

Israeli special operations forces in Gaza are what began this recent crisis - there is no question or controversy on that. They were discovered mid-operation in Gaza, Hamas responded and continues to respond.

If Israel increases the intensity of their response, it may include more ground operations.
The situation is not good.

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Israel Operating in Gaza Draws Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel operates in the Gaza strip more often than one would think.
Their last operation resulted in the death of a 43 year old commander, a Lt Colonel in the IDF. Another officer was wounded.
This is a huge loss.

When Israel goes into Gaza, they go with very clear and specific goals for the operations. They go in with small, highly-trained strike forces with a great deal of experience. They work well together and they work efficiently. They go in on the ground and then often take a vehicle or use one that has been arranged for them through local Palestinian assistance.

These small strike forces move quickly.

Their goals, normally, are to confirm information or to sabotage or destroy targets. Sometimes they are there to kidnap or assassinate terrorist leaders.

When something goes wrong there are contingency plans. In this most recent case, the team was discovered. A firefight ensued and that's when the commander was killed and the officer was wounded. Within seconds IDF helicopters came and fired on the Hamas positions giving cover to the IDF team. Other helicopters landed to evacuate the wounded and the rest of the team.

Knowing what to do when things do not go as planned is a critical part of every operation.

Hamas is still responding to the Israeli operation. They are lobbing mortars from Gaza into Israel. Of the 80 mortars lobbed so far today, one mortar resulted in a direct hit on an Israeli bus.

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14 Years Since Arafat
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

14 years ago, on November 11, 2004, Yasser Arafat died in a hospital in France.

Since then, not much has progressed for the Palestinians. Actually, under the current Palestinian leadership, the Palestinian cause has stalled.

Many blame Israel. And yes, there are things Israel could have done to further urge Palestinian leadership and the masses into a mindset amenable to peace agreements. But the lion's share of responsibility sits firmly on the shoulders of Palestinian leadership.

Simply put, Palestinian leadership is afraid to take upon itself the responsibility of compromise. They do not have faith that their leadership will convince the masses that compromise will create a better life and a better future.

Extremists advocate black and white answers only - they refuse to compromise and they threaten anyone who speaks of an agreement with Israel as a traitor and a collaborator. And both leadership and the masses cower in fear and toe the line of the extremists.

Palestinian leadership even mimics extremist ideas in order to save public face which then gives rise to the question whether they actually want peace at all.

Classic examples of capitulation to extremist demands are the official PA policies of paying stipends to arrested terrorist and to the families of killed terrorists, and the offer to those who spend twenty years in Israeli prison for terrorist crimes to purchase car free of tax.

Since Arafat's time, things have really not improved.

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Saudis Say No Palestinians at Hajj
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis are not permitting Palestinian Arabs to attend the Hajj. Since 1978 Palestinians have joined the Hajj. They use temporary Jordanian passports in order to enter Saudi Arabia.

No Israeli is permitted to enter Saudi Arabia and certainly not the holy city of Mecca.

In order to side step that issus Jordan, gave Israelis this temporary status.

There are two interesting issues at stake. 1st is that Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank are included in the ban. 2nd is that this is all happening at a time when Israel and the Saudis are having secret meetings. It was rumored that Israeli PM Netanyahu met the Saudi Crown Prince in Amman Jordan recently.

Israeli press has also reported that they sold the Saudis their Iran Dome.

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Jewish Minister in Tunisia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Roni Trabelsi is the new tourism minister in Tunisia. This is important news because Roni Tabelsi is Jewish.

Trabelsi is the second Jewish minister in the history of Tunisia. The last Jewish minister was a financial minister to the king of Tunisia in 1860.

Trabelsi is a successful businessman. He actually lives in France, but is also a Tunisian citizen. In the past Trabelsi had been a candidate for this cabinet post but was passed over for the position.

He owns a very large tourism company in Tunisia called Royal First Travel.

Not very long ago Tunisia was home to over 150,000 Jews. Today there may be 1,200 Jews residing there. Not more.

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Another Iranian Hack
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced that they have discovered a new attack similar to Stuxnet. They claim that the attack was launched by Israel. General Jalali, the general in charge of defending Iran general said this:

"Recently, we discovered a new generation of Stuxnet which consisted of several parts ... and was trying to enter our systems."

I do not know whether Israel attacked Iran's computers. But I can certainly say that Iran must know that they are perfect targets.

This is the era of computer warfare and it is no surprise that the Iranians were attacked.

I doubt. however, that they successfully cleaned their systems of the infection.

If it is anything like Stuxnet the infection is dormant and cannot be found until it is called back in to action.

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New US Sanctions of Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The newest US sanctions on Iran kicked in today.

These sanctions involve the energy sector.
Countries and companies around the world are biting their nails waiting to see what happens now between the United States and Iran.

For an indication, here's what Iranian President Rouhani said: "We are in a situation of war. We are in the economic war situation. We are confronting a bullying enemy. We have to stand to win."

Iran is assuming the position of victim of an evil aggressor. They are portraying the United States as an enemy and they are speaking in terms of war - economic war as well as real war.

Rouhani cranked up the rhetoric when he compared US President Donald Trump to Saddam Hussein of Iraq, one of world's most vicious dictators and the arch enemy of Iran. He said: "Yesterday, Saddam was in front of us, today Trump is front of us. There is no difference. We must resist and win."

Positions have been set.

The United States made the first move.
How will Iran counter?

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Shortage of Tires in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians have been burning tires. One of the tools they use to obscure the field of vision of Israeli soldiers is burning tires.

So Israel initiated a ban on bringing tires in to Gaza. Eventually, Israel figured, they would run out of the tires.

And now, a shortage of tires has emerged in Gaza. There is a shortage of tires for burning and there is also a shortage of tires for cars.

With a short supply and a high demand, the price of tires will skyrocket. The price of tires has hit $350 a pair - that is an increase of 300% since the burning of tires began.

An essential good has now become a luxury good in Gaza.

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Still Spinning from The Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The mass murder of 11 Jews while praying in synagogue on a Sabbath morning has stunned America. The reaction is still apparent days later - the story still continues to dominate the headlines.

And not just in the US. Interest in this horrific event perpetrated upon 11 Jews resonates in Europe. Why?

Why is Europe so enthralled with the story? There are two reasons. First, is shock and dismay. Second, is that Europeans need to prove to themselves, to the United States and to Israel that Europe is not the only place where anti- Semitism lurks.

Israel is also spinning from this catastrophe. Israeli media is multi-focused - on the crime, on the victims and on the perpetrator of the crime. They are also asking an all important question.

Israeli media is asking: Is it is still safe for Jews to live in America as Jews?

It is the ultimate question about Zionism.

The original Zionists advocated leaving the Diaspora because of the
dangers in the Diaspora - the exception was the United States where Jews were supposedly safe. This attack calls that assumption into question.

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Iran's Pres Phone was Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian news media announced that their president's phone was tapped.

President Hassan Rouhani's cell phone was compromised, according to the Iranian Student News Agency the ISNA.

Iran knows that they are vulnerable. Since the Stuxnet virus ran rampant in 2011, Iran has realized the potential risks of technology and hacking.

Gen. Gholam Reza Jalali is the head of a military unit in charge of combating sabotage in Iran. The authorities in Iran are saying that Rouhani's phone was tapped "recently" and would be replaced with a more secure device. Jalali did not provide further details.

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Israel Selling Iron Dome to Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli media reported that the IDF chief of staff met with more than a handful of military chiefs of staff from Arab countries during this last trip to Washington.

The Israeli press also described a $250 million deal with Saudi Arabia. The deal is for highly sophisticated defense weapons - specifically the Iron Dome anti-missile system.

This deal coming to light is a huge issue.

While it is evident that Israel is getting closer and closer to Arab leaders - supplying cutting edge defensive weapons with the best possible computer technology is pushing the envelope.

With all countries, but especially with the actions of Saudi Arabia, Israel needs to be very careful about the sale of weapons.

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Oman Says Time to Recognize Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu returned to Israel from a two-day secret trip to Oman.

The secrecy was lifted after Netanyahu left Oman.
The purpose of this trip is obvious. It was another in a series of steps opening up the Arab and Islamic world to Israel.

After the Israeli prime minister left Oman, Omani Foreign Minister Yousuf bin Alawi released the following statement: "Israel is a state present in the region, and we all understand this. The world is also aware of this and maybe it is time for Israel to be treated the same [as other states] and to also bear the same obligations."

The foreign minister made this statement while attending the IISS (International Institute for Security Studies) Conference in Manama, Bahrain.

Omani leadership is taking a big step forward. They are boldly advancing interaction with Israel in the public eye and even suggesting that the rest of the states in the region do the same.
Kudos to Omani leadership.

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Increased Tension Could Lead to Quiet
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Thursday night at almost midnight Israel time the code red alert sounded in southern Israel. Families scrambled to grab their sleeping children and rush them into their safe rooms.
This is not unique. Unfortunately it maybe the new norm.

Now Israel must now evaluate their response.

A rocket was shot from Gaza into Israel - thankfully no was hurt and no damage physical damage occurred.

That is except if you count that this was one of her 40,000 rockets which the Palestinians of Gaza have launched into Israel.

In an Israeli army ceremony earlier in the day marking the transition of leadership in the outgoing IDF officer in charge of the region said that Palestinian terrorists continually attempt to attack Israel from beneath the ground and from the air and on the ground. But thus far Israel has the ability to stop them.

Over the past week Israel has begun to act aggressively against the Palestinian units launching incendiary balloons and rockets against Israel.

That seems to have been the decision by the prime minister's inner cabinet - his security cabinet.

In the meantime despite the recent rocket attack the Palestinians have quieted down because of Israel's more aggressive response.

Significantly fewer Palestinians are rioting at the Gaza border with Israel and the rioters behavior is much more controlled. This is clearly a decision and a response by the organizers to Israel's increased reaction.

All this translates into an intensification of the conflict. Because of last week's rocket which destroyed a family home in Beersheba - Israel changed their reaction. They hit Palestinian launching units. That military response created calmer life on both sides.

Given the current responses of Israel and the intensities - the rocket that was launched near midnight yesterday may force Israel to respond with even greater force.

Translation - increased tensions requires Israel's response.
Question: Will there be an IDF ground attack and an all military invasion into Gaza?:
Answer- neither side wants one.

Israel wants to cap the tension using drones, helicopters and fighter jets. They do not want to risk the cost of Israeli casualties that are inevitable in ground invasion.

The Palestinians want to push Israel and agitate just up to the point of forcing an increase in Israel's response especially avoiding an all out advance.

So far the Palestinians have caused Israel to use more aerial strikes. That response would be considered a moderate increase in activity.

But the Palestinian rockets are extremely unpredictable - an errant rocket will hit an Israeli civilian target. That single rocket could topple the very fragile balance preventing an all out war.

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Jordan & Israel at Odds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Part of the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was an agreement in which Jordan would lease lands to Israel. Those lands included parts of the Arava Desert and a section of the Jordan River with an island in its center called Naharayim.

The 25 year lease is up and Jordan announced that it will not be renewed.

The Jordanian's official and public decision took Israel by surprise - even though Jordan's King Abdullah had made several earlier announcements indicating that he does not intend to carry on with the leasing arrangement.

Israel did not take the King seriously, they did not make the diplomatic effort necessary to squelch this issue. And now they are in trouble.

For Israel, Naharayim, the Jordan River island, is an essential water source.

Adopting an adolescent-like stance, Israel assumed they would deal with it - that it was no big problem. But it is a big problem. The King of Jordan is promising the return of lands to their rightful, original owners.

Israeli diplomatic leadership made a massive miscalculation.

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The Real Khashoggi & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudi journalist murdered in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey was no lover of Israel.

Jamal Khashoggi often wrote disapprovingly about Saudi's relationship with Israel.

He wrote that public diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will hurt the standing of Saudi Arabia in the rest of the Muslim world. He wrote that it was irresponsible and myopic and shortsighted of Saudi leadership to not to see that.

This puts Israel into a difficult, almost a near impossible, situation.

On the one hand, Israel needs the Saudis to challenge Iran.

On the other hand, Israel cannot be seen as supporting Iran and ignorant of the culture of torture that still goes on Iran.

Saudi Arabia is not as evolved as Western countries forced themselves to believe they were.

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Chinese VP in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes it is hard to determine what is and is not important among the dozens of events happening in the world.

The Vice President of China, Wang Qishan is in Israel for a three day visit. This is significant and hugely important. A three day visit from the Chinese VP to a tiny country like Israel will shore up relations and transmit a message to those who know -- that Israel and China are working well together and that they are creating new agreements.

The Chinese VP is in Israel officially to co chair a conference on innovation cooperation. It is a joint summit and the other co host is Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.

Undoubtedly there are and will be tensions between China and Israel. This however shows a warming and it extends a real gesture of diplomatic interactions.

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Selling His Olympic Gold
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Gal Fridman is Israel's only Olympic gold medalist.

Israel's gold medalist is having a difficult time making ends meet, so he is selling his medal.

Fridman won the gold in 2004 in windsurfing. In 1966 he won a bronze medal in the Olympics in Atlanta. Today, he coaches windsurfers and world competitors. He makes a living as a wedding and bar/bat mitzvah photographer.

In an ironic twist, the home of Fridman's parents was robbed in 2005. Their safe was cracked and, among other items, their son's two Olympic medals were taken. The medals were later found, discarded, on the Tel Aviv beach.

After they were found, Gal Fridman said: "no amount of money could replace this medal."

Times change and situations change. Now Fridman needs to sell his prized possessions.

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Teachers Strike in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Teachers are striking in Iran.

That is a very bad sign.

Teachers are striking in over 12 cities - especially Iran's largest cities. They are striking because, they say, their pay is too low. Iranian teachers make 4million rials per month. That large number converts to only $100 on the black market exchange rate. It is the black market rate that represents the real value of the dollar, not the official rate which is artificially determined.

Teachers in Iran, like everywhere, dedicate themselves to creating an exciting future for their students. Across the world they are abysmally underpaid … in Iran even more so.

The Coordinated Council of Teachers Syndicates in Iran asked teachers not to strike. Instead, they said, come to your schools and simply do not teach. The teachers chose to ignore that option.

Iran has underestimated the importance of their own teachers and, in so doing, is putting their future at risk.

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US: No To Syrian Help If Iran is Still There
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced yesterday that if any scintilla of an Iranian presence remains in Syria, the United States will not pay one single dollar toward reconstructing the country.

Pompeo made his point very clearly while delivering an address to members of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

He said: "The onus for expelling Iran from the country falls on the Syrian government, which bears responsibility for its presence there."

And then Pompeo continued: "If Syria doesn't ensure the total withdrawal of Iranian-backed troops, it will not receive one single dollar from the United States for reconstruction."

This is a sine qua non for US involvement. That means Syria has to make a decision. Iran does not have the money to rebuild Syria and the Iranians have aggressive intentions there.

This move by the United States may successfully oust Iran from Syria.

If so - Kudos to Pompeo and to Trump!!

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Druze Show Support for Assad
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

A small group of Druze living in the Israeli Golan Heights went to the border with Syria. Once at the border the used their megaphones to call to their relatives on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

The Druze contingent brought pictures of Syrian President Assad and posters showing their support for the Assad regime.

This village the Druze chose for their demonstration is named Majd Al Shams. It is the shouting mountain on the border, the place where Druze come and speak to relatives on the other side of the border.

Druze, by religious doctrine, are loyal to their local state. It is very unusual to have a Druze community in Israel showing support for a leader from another country.


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Israel & UAE Amb Sit Together
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

According to the Israeli daily newspaper, Haaretz a remarkable event happened recently in Washington DC.

At a dinner for the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs the Israeli and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ambassadors were seated together. Also there was the Egyptian ambassador.

Yousef al Otaiba of the UAE and Ron Dermer of Israel spoke to each other at the event.

It should be clear that the thaw between Israel and some Arab countries is real. A year ago this meeting would have happened - but it would have happened behind closed doors. Now it is done in public.

This is a major step forward.
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Syria Celebrates Victory over Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian media spent the entire day broadcasting the 45th anniversary of their victory over Israel in 1973 in what Israel calls the Yom Kippur War.

In Syria they call the war the "October War of Independence" or Harb Tishreen al-Tahrir Yar.

The media was filled with interviews of witnesses who shot down Israeli F-15's and captured hundreds of Israeli soldiers. The "witnesses" made up story after story. They described shooting down 250 Israeli fighter jets.

One Syrian pilot claimed to have single-handedly downed four Israeli planes.

One person attributed the great stories of success to Syria"s sophisticated weapons. He said "[w]e can use complex technology."

In reality - Syria lost 109 fighter jets and 3,500 Syrian soldiers died.

Israel was attacked on the holiest day of the year in a multi-front coordinated strike. The Syrians attacked at the same time as the Egyptians. After three days of fighting, Israel pushed the Syrians back to pr-war lines. By the fourth day the Israelis were deep into Syria. By day seven Israel was parked outside of Damascus and surrounding the Syrian capital.

How Syria turned that loss into a victory and celebratory event is truly a mystery.


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Russia's Syria's S-300
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

People have been asking question after question about the Russian delivery of new S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria.

So here are some of the details.

Russia has delivered three sets of the S-300 with eight launchers each. They have also provided Syria with one hundred missiles. According to TASS, a Russian news agency, the cost to Syria for all of this was - nothing, zip, zero. The Russians threw in, at no cost, an entire staff of people to operate the S-300.

Syria will need the assistance. The Russians have not yet instructed them on how to operate these weapons. It will take at least a year to learn enough to be competent on the system.

And that is why it is almost certain that the operators who shot down the Russian military plane that killed 15 Russian soldiers - were Russia technicians.

One last point. The S-300's now in Syria came from a location that has since been restocked with newer and better S-400s.

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Iran Outlaws Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Parliament just passed a law that outlaws the funding and sponsoring of terror.

It makes no sense. Iran is one of the world's biggest supporters of terror. Why are they passing this law?

The answer is both simple and surprising.

Iran is trying to conform to international norms and to accept the International Convention on Fighting Terror (The CFT). Iranian leadership is hoping that by passing laws like this Iran will join the community of nations.

In the end, the plan might just work. These machinations may do the trick and Iran may be making headway with countries who want to continue their relationship with Iran after the full US sanctions kick in.

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Another Tragedy in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The brutal murder of two Israelis by a Palestinian terrorist this morning is another tragedy enveloping Israel.

Kim Levengrond Yehezkel, 28, from Rosh HaAyin and Ziv Hagbi, 35, from Rishon LeZion were shot to death by a 23 year old Palestinian terrorist using an M-16 assault rifle. It is very unusual for a Palestinian to procure that type of weapon and to have the ability to transport it.
And it is very critical to understand how he planned and then executed this murderous terror attack.

The attack took place in the Barkan Industrial Park which is just off the Cross Samarian Highway, known as Route 5, situated close to Ariel.

The Barkan Industrial Park houses about 150 businesses and about 6,500 employees working there. Not surprisingly there are about 3,300 Palestinians working there and about the same amount of Jewish Israelis. The terrorist and his victims - the two who were killed and a third who is injured - all worked in the Alon Recycling Plant.

These are places and business where Palestinians and Israelis work together. The 23 year old terrorist, as yet unnamed, was there legally - he had working papers. The authorities know who he is and where he lives.

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Russian Numbers are Fake
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Business Week wrote an insightful piece about the implausibility and total fabrication of Russian numbers - specifically, about the numbers of deaths in Syria.

Russia claims to have killed 85,000 terrorists and not a single civilian. Not one. They also say that they lost 112 Russian lives.

Independent monitors have very different numbers.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London based group, has been the eyes and ears of the West within Syria. Everything we know about the happenings inside Syria is because of these brave people.

According to SOHR reports, Russian air strikes have killed 18,000 people - and of those, 8,000 have been civilians.

How does SOHR count? They use local witnesses and contacts. Sometimes they have staff in place. And, after the fact, they always go to the area and interview survivors.

SOHR might not be completely accurate, but at the least they provide us with a good and educated guess.

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It's Anti-Semitism Not Anti-Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday, September 30th, sometime between 12 midnight and 8 AM in Carl Schurz Park which sits just outside Gracie Mansion, the home of the mayor of New York City, some one or several people scrawled Free Gaza several times on the Sukkah located there.

The graffiti was scrawled on this clearly Jewish structure right under the noses of the police and protection division of the mayor's office.

What is critical to understand is that a Sukkah is a Jewish symbol - but the graffiti scrawled on the Sukkah was anti-Israel.

It should be clear that to all who read this - those who hate Israel are anti-Semites. It's as simple as that.

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UN Head Say Hate of Israel is A/S
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres spoke out condemning anti-Semitism. The secretary general spoke at an event sponsored by UNESCO.

Guterres said: "The origins of the United Nations itself are rooted in the need to learn the lessons of the Holocaust. Being true to our Charter means combating anti-Semitism and hatred with all our energy and will."

Guterres also said that anti-Semitism attempts to criticize Israel "itself in attempts to delegitimize the right of Israel to exist, including calls for its destruction, using the pretext of the situation in the Middle East to target Jews and Jewish symbols."

Speaking of related issues Guterres said: "The world is also seeing an alarming proliferation of neo-Nazi and white supremacy groups, and of those seeking religious and ethnic domination ... This is tribalism run amok. Not only are their vile views coming into the mainstream, but the mainstream unfortunately, sometimes, is coming to them."

This speech by the UN Secretary General at a UNESCO event is an attempt to make clear that the UN has experienced a recent history of anti-Semitism.

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Terrorist Take Advantage of Jewish Holidays
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It is now the middle of the holiday of Sukkot. This year, like every year, Israelis are on family vacations all over Israel. Terrorists know about the vacations and, as a result, Israel and Israelis are at a greater than normal risk.

Because of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot - Israelis are targets.
Palestinians are also taking advantage of the holiday and the interruption of day-to-day living and sending more and more burning kites and balloons into Israel.

On Wednesday five fires broke out near the Gaza border, caused by balloons launched from Gaza.

It should be clear to all - the Hamas terrorists are taking advantage of the timing of the Sukkot family. They are attacking Israel during the holiday in order to injure or murder as many people as possible.

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Abbas in France
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron insists that talks resume between Israel and the Palestinians. To that effect, his office released this message: "to resume the thread of dialogue between Palestinians and Israelis and confirmed to President Abbas the willingness of France to mobilize on the diplomatic field, in order to change a situation that is no longer tenable."

Abbas explained that Palestinians are not against talks, it's just that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the reason for the stalled talks.

Abbas was happy to hear that France would like to take the lead in a future dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians. One reason for their excitement is that with France taking charge, Israel would, of course, be sidelined.

There is no chance that this will happen. Israel will never let that happen.

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Iran's Drills and Maneuvers
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been running military drills in the Persian Gulf. They have set off test rockets and they had ground maneuvers.

A country, especially a country like Iran which is feeling more and more isolated and threatened, has only a few options for regaining honor and pride and for sending a message to those poking and provoking them.

Iran's maneuvers are clear statements against the United States, the West and all other countries joining in US-sponsored sanctions against them.

These military exercises are carefully designed by Iran to make certain that their neighbors understand that they are capable of hitting anyone at any time.

Iran's maneuvers are a clear statement and part of that statement is a military threat.

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Iran Feeling the Sanctions Pressure
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is starting to feel the pressure of the US sanctions that are already in place and of future sanctions, those on oil that will on start November 4th.

Iran is responding by saying that the sanctions will not be that effective.

Moayyed Hosseini Sadr, an adviser to Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said, "Considering the high demand and low supply in the market, America's sanctions cannot drop Iran's oil sale to zero ... Other oil producers cannot replace Iran's oil."

Sadr is correct about the demand for oil - it is high.

BUT - here's the big question: is buying from Iran to meet your needs and even possibly undercutting the world market rate worth the potential backlash and wrath of the United States????

That is the question that needs to be answered.

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Syria Down Russia Plane
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Reports abound that Syria accidentally shot down a Russian IL-20 aircraft carrying 14 Russian servicemen.

Some background is required.

The Syrians have beefed up their anti-air defenses with the help of Russia. Yesterday - and the day before, missiles were headed toward the Syrian port of Latakia. According to Israeli sources, Latakia port was storing new weapons that would alter the status quo.

So Israel launched an attack against the weapons cache in Latakia.

On Sunday night Syria successfully struck some of the incoming Israeli rockets. But Monday night, rather than shooting down Israeli planes, they mistakenly shot down the planes of their ally, Russia.

One of the dangers of having hi-tech weapons is that when using them they can cause great damage.

The irony should not be lost. Russia improves the anti-missile defense system of Syria only to be shot down by that very system.

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A Hero Murdered
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Ari Fuld was murdered in cold blood yesterday by a 17 year old Palestinian terrorist.

Ari was a hero, cut down in the prime of his life in the parking lot of a Gush Etzion shopping mall, a spot frequented by both Palestinians and Israelis.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad of Gaza both issued statements supporting the murder of this father of four.

They proclaimed: "We welcome the stabbing attack in Bethlehem, which coincided with the killings of our people during the March of Return."

"The attack makes it clear that our people wish to continue the Jerusalem intifada. To resist the occupation, by using all means necessary, is our legitimate right."

"The attack is a natural response to the aggression and crimes perpetrated by the Zionist terrorists against our people, our land and our holy places. We praise our people in the West Bank and call for a continuation of resistance against Israel and attacks against the settlers."

These comments are official - they not off the cuff.

These terrorists want to stimulate more terror and to murder more innocents. They take pride in the murder of Ari Fuld. They justify the murder of Ari Fuld. They may think of themselves as freedom fighters, but they are nothing more than cold blooded murderers.

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Palestinans Say No Peace Deal!
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat, chief negotiator for the Palestinians, has made it very clear that Palestinians will not accept any US peace plan. More than that, he suggested that the United States will never even present the plan.

Erekat explained the reason for the Palestinian rejection by saying that the United States has sided with Israel on every issue.

In a Reuters interview which took place in Jericho, Erekat said: "I don't think they will ever introduce a plan."

He continued: "The whole world is rejecting their ideas. They are already implementing their plan by changing the terms of reference."

Erekat is not a prophet - but he is correct that, at this point, the US sponsored will not succeed. No peace plan will succeed if one of the parties refuses to participate.

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Hezbollah Leader Cries
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The leader of Hezbollah was moved to tears during a speech he delivered yesterday. Not quite what you would expect from Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah was begging his followers not to cut the faces of their children. Mutilation and self-mutilation are part of Shiite tradition, especially on Ashurah. Ashurah is the anniversary of the brutal death of Mohammed's grandson Hussein Ibn Ali during the battle of Karbala.

To reenact this historical event, Shiite Muslims whip themselves and others. They also cut themselves and each other.

Nasrallah said: "The whole world sees what is happening here today and I ask you all to restrain yourselves and to distance yourselves from anyone who seeks to create a negative impression about us." Then he started to cry.

ISIS, Nasrallah said, is the real enemy: "ISIS leaves an impression that causes the most harm to us. Islamic scholars condemn them."

Crocodile tears? Perhaps.

Effective? Time will tell.

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World Jewish Population is Up
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

New numbers are in.

According to the Jewish Agency, the Jewish population increased over the last year by 100,000. The total number of Jews in the world is now 14.7 million people.

There are 6.6 million Jews living in Israel.

8.1 million Jews live in the Diaspora, that means they live outside of Israel.

Of that number, 5.7 million live in the United States.

The second largest population outside of Israel is France where 453,000 Jews currently live.

The third largest Jewish community outside of Israel is Canada with 391,000 Jews.

The lessons gleaned from these numbers are important. But, numbers can be deceptive. The question needs to be asked: What activity do these 14.7 million people actually practice? In other words, what criteria was used in labeling someone Jewish?

The answer is that these 14.7 million people classify themselves as Jewish.

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US Closes Palestinian Mission in DC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The US State Department announced that the Palestinians must close their mission in Washington.

The mission is the closest thing to a US embassy the Palestinians have.

The announcement came in a statement from Heather Nauert, the State Department spokeswoman, during an official press briefing.

Nauert said: "To the contrary, PLO leadership has condemned a US peace plan they have not yet seen and refused to engage with the US government with respect to peace efforts and otherwise ... As such, and reflecting congressional concerns, the administration has decided that the PLO office in Washington will close at this point ... The United States continues to believe that direct negotiations between the two parties are the only way forward."

The Palestinians are livid. They are convinced that this is another US move against them.

But the United States has made it clear that actions have consequences - in this case the Palestinians refuse to advance direct talks with Israel or even to speak to US special envoys.

Back in November the United States warned the Palestinians that the price of not talking would be the closing of their Washington mission. They have a month to move out.

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Israel Issues Travel Warnings
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's National Security Anti-Terrorism Bureau has announced travel warnings for the Jewish holidays.

The two most important warnings involve the Sinai and Turkey.

"This is not about posting new travel warnings, but reflecting the current situation," the bureau explained. The announcement said that "the threat in Sinai remains high" in light of the presence of an Islamic State affiliate and efforts by al-Qaeda to establish itself in the region.”

About Turkey, it warned of "high threat potential for Israelis in light of the infrastructure and intention of terror groups to operate" in Turkey.

As always, there is also a high risk for Israeli travelers in the rest of Egypt and Jordan.

Hopefully, it will be an incident-free, safe and healthy New Year for all.

Shana Tova - Happy New Year.

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Greenblatt Says Palestinian Issue Not Central
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Jason Greenblatt is US President Donald J Trump's special envoy to the Middle East. He was quoted in yesterday's JTA saying that the Palestinian issue is not central to the Middle East and that resolving the Palestinian issue will not solve any other problems or impact any other issues. Of course, he added that this does not mean that the Palestinian issue should not be solved,

Greenblatt said "solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not solve other conflicts in the region, including the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, terrorists in the Sinai Desert in Egypt, a tragic, continuing civil war in Syria, war in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, instability in Libya, and an Iranian regime that oppresses its own people and foments terrorism around the world."

"That does not make resolving this conflict any less important."

Yes, Greenblatt is correct. What a welcome breath of fresh air. It's good to hear this point of view and know that it is reflective of US policy.

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Iran's FM In Syria Shows Unity
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian foreign minister Javid Zarif is in Syria. He arrived on the heels of Iran's Defense Minister Khatami.

Zarif met with Syrian President Assad in order to review international diplomatic responses to their assault on Idlib, one of the last strongholds of Syrian rebels fighting Assad.

The Syria leader said: "the fact that the West has resorted to threats and pressure on Tehran and Damascus attests to its failure to implement the plans it has proposed."

He continued: "the pressures exerted by some Western countries will not deter both countries from continuing to maintain their principles and securing the region."

Iran and Syria are in this for the long term.

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Putin's Rabbi Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Moscow's Chabad rabbi, Berel Lazar, secretly visited Iran as part of a Russian Duma delegation in April - immediately after Passover this year.

The trip was covered in the Times of Israel and in the Hebrew press. Neither Chabad nor the rabbi has confirmed the story.

Iran originally rejected the Rabbi and said that they would not permit him entry. But Rabbi Lazar is not just a Chabad rabbi, he is Vladimir Putin's rabbi. The Russians insisted that Rabbi Lazar be part of the delegation, and so he was.

While in Iran Rabbi Lazar visited a Jewish school and a synagogue and spoke with the Jewish community.

There are rumors that there was an attempt to resolve tensions between Iran and Israel using Putin and Russia and Rabbi Lazar - but there's no chance of that being true.

It was most likely another example need to prove his power over Iran.

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PA Lashing Out At Trump
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian leadership is lashing out at the United States -specifically at US President Donald Trump and those of his attaches who were given the mandate to bring peace to Israelis and Palestinians.

Chief Palestinian adviser Nabil Abu Rudeineh, who is also the spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said this about US Envoy to the Mideast Jason Greenblatt's comments regarding the PA's handling of the Gaza issue: "The US government is interfering in internal
Palestinian affairs and we will not allow this."

"Greenblatt is part of a scheme to transform the Palestinian issue from one of a nation yearning for independence into a mere humanitarian issue. The nation won't accept this."

This is ridiculous. This is a total exaggeration and Rudeineh is completely wrong.

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Tensions Btw Saudis and Germany
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Germany. This conflict emerges in the aftermath of a Saudi / Canadian conflict.

Saudi Arabia's conflict with Canada has been simmering for a while, but the most recent issue of contention came about because Canada spoke out about Saudi Arabian social injustice - especially against women and minorities in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis told Canada to butt out.

Germany spoke up about the conflict, too and they sided with Canada.

On the economic front, as a result of Germany's siding against them, Saudi Arabia has moved to block European pharmaceuticals from entering their country. The massive loss of sales will impact not only Germany but all of Europe and even the United States.

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Iran's Parliament Orders President To Explain
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 29, 2018

I''ve Been Thinking:

Iran's parliament ordered Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to make an appearance and explain his policies.

This is only the second time in history that such a move has taken place. The last time was in 2011 when then-president Ahmadinejad was summoned to the parliament over a similar issue - international sanctions against Iran.

Rouhani was asked to explain why his policies have not been able to counter the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran.

The parliament is worried, most significantly because the economic crisis in Iran is worsening. And this is just stage one of the sanctions, stage two begins in November.

Iran's parliamentarians want to know what Rouhani's new plans. They want to know if Rouhani's plans will succeed in lifting Iran out of its terrible economic condition.

There is good reason to worry.

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Russian Fleet to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

13 Russian war ships crossed through the Bosporus Straits en route to Syria. The Bosporus leads from the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea to the Aegean Sea and then to the Mediterranean.

The ships listed below are the most sophisticated and advanced attack machines in the Russia war chest. This flotilla is a floating attack base, it is an offensive weapon with express purpose of striking targets on land.

Russian Ships Now in Med Sea:
CG Marshal Ustinov
DG Severomorsk
DDG Yaroslav Mudryy
FFG Admiral Grigorovich
FFG Admiral Essen
FFL Pytlivyy
FSG Vyshniy Volochek
FSG Grad Sviyazhsk
FSG Velikiy Ustyug
LST Orsk
LST Nikolay Fil'chenkov
MS Turbinist
MS Valentin Pikul
SS Kolpino
SS Velikiy Novgorod

This return of the Russian armada to Syria is the result President Trump's announcement threatening that the United States was going to attack Syrian army posts. Russia is sending its fleet to defend Syria, its ally - and to check United States aggression.

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Iranian Defense Minister in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami touched down in Damascus, Syria on a Sunday for a two day visit.

Iran is deeply invested in Syria. Since 2012 over 1,000 Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have been killed in Syria. There is no way of actually knowing how many Iranian soldiers are in Syria.

The Iranians have repeatedly said that they are only in Syria because they were invited to enter and will stay until Syria asks them to leave.

Last week, while in Israel, the US president's national security adviser announced that Iran must get out of Syria.

Iran is very dangerous in Syria. They are a serious threat to Israel and the rest of the Middle East. They prey on Sunni majorities. But because of their presence, after eight years of killing, the Syrian civil war has almost ended.

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Palestinian Leaders are Arming
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

YNET and KAN, 2 Israeli news media sites, published reports that Palestinian leaders are maneuvering in order to gain position and power and get an advantage and in what will be the race to become the successor of Mohammed Abbas.

The reports say that these leaders are hiring not just assistants and campaign managers, they are hiring armed guards and even strike forces.

Whatever happens, it promises to be interesting, very interesting.

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Israeli Anchor Insults Cobryn
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 23, 2018
I've Been Thinking:

The anchor for the Israel public television station KAN, a woman named Geula Even Saar, made several comments that many people consider offensive.

Numerous people have eulogized Uri Avneri, a trailblazing leftist. In response to the tributes heaped on Avneri, Even Saar said: "Today, many people have eulogized him, including President Reuven Rivlin, but also Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, and Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen [Abbas], who don't have a problem also eulogizing terrorists."

Geula Even Saar is correct in that Jeremy Corbyn supports Palestinian terror as does Abu Mazen.

She abandoned professionalism and was, instead, expressing her anger at theses leaders.

Avneri was the first Israeli to meet and greet PLO leader Yasser Arafat - who was also a terrorist.

The anchor is unapologetic and stands by her words.

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Iran Says The US is Scared
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered a speech that was televised on Iranian TV. In the speech Rouhani explained why the United States has not attacked Iran.

Rouhani explained that the overall military strength of Iran is a deterrent for the US and that any attack on Iran would be extremely costly for the United States.

He said: "Why the United States does not attack us? Because of our power, because it knows ... its consequences."

There are many reasons why the Unites States has not attacked Iran.

The most important reason of all is that it would bring about war. And no one knows how that would end.

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Hamas Will Not Lay Down Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The ceasefire, the truce, between Hamas and Israel have serious implications. There is no question that part of the truce will require Hamas to disarm.

Hamas said that: "Our weapons will remain in our hands and there are no conditions regarding Hamas's right to [continue] the resistance. The truce does not require a political price [from Hamas] and it is not part of the deal of the century."

There is, without a doubt, a massive chasm between what Israel expects and what Hamas will do in the truce - but Israel cannot permit Hamas to continue to launch rockets and attacks.

So - Israel will probably look the other way at Hamas' continued weapon flaunting as long as things stay quiet and there are few to nil rockets and terror attacks aimed at them.

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Israeli Won't Compete on Yom Kippur
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Dan Kramer is the lead member of Israel's Equestrian Team. The team has a chance to qualify for the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Japan. But to qualify, they need to score high ranks in certain international competitions.

The best of the competitions will take place in September in the United States. But there's a problem - the competition takes place on Yom Kippur. Dan Kramer was insistent that he, personally, would not compete on Yom Kippur. He said that, out of respect for Judaism and out of respect for the Israeli people, he would not compete.

Kramer has written an open letter that reads: "I decided not to join the other members of the Israeli national team and not to participate in the upcoming world championships in the United States, because the competition is taking place on Yom Kippur and I want to honor this day as well as the Israeli public and Jewish Diaspora."

"I think that it will be a serious mistake in judgment to compete on this holy day, despite the sporting implications of not participating in such a major and important competition that will hurt my international score and my, and my horse's, chances of reaching the Olympics. As far as I'm concerned, this is not a matter of personal choice. As a Jewish athlete and a proud Israeli, I do not intend to offend the sensitivities of the Israeli public and the Jewish world in general and compete on our holiest day."

"I do not intend to compete 'below the radar,' as has been hinted to me more than once in my conversations with key people in the federation, because I believe that every performance by an Israeli team should be a heart-warming affair that fills every Israeli and Jew with pride."

The rest of the team has decided to compete. They are, however, split in favor of and opposed to the decision of their team captain.

The truth is that without Kramer, Israel's Equestrian Team's chance of reaching the Olympics is greatly diminished.

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Hajj Begins
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

According to many Islamic calendars, the Hajj began at first light this morning.

The Hajj is the annual pilgrimage to Mecca and sometimes Medina. Every able-bodied Muslim male is commanded to make the Hajj once in his lifetime. Some Muslims do it annually. This year Saudi Arabia granted 1.7 million visas and they are expecting over 2 million pilgrims during the 5 day event.

The Arabic word "Hajj" derives from the same root as the Hebrew word "Chag". It means "holiday". The three letter root is H - G - G. In both Arabic and Hebrew, the soft "G" has the "J" sound. That is why I spell Hajj with two Js, not two Gs. And that is why in Hebrew the biblical character is called Hagar and in the Koran she is called Hajar.

The pilgrim enters Mecca and makes his way to the Great Mosque, the largest mosque in the world with the ability to accommodate 2 million pilgrims at one time.

The Great Mosque encompasses the Kabba, the square stone. And that is where the pilgrim performs the Tawaf - the ritual in which the Kabba is circled 7 times in a counterclockwise direction. Pilgrims then walk between the two hills that Hajar, the wife of Ibrahim (Abraham) walked. She walked between Safa and Marwa looking for water for her son Ishmael.

Circling seven times is a common tradition in Judaism, as well. Jews do it during the holidays of Sukkot, Hoshannah Rabbah and Simchat Torah and call it Hakafot. During Jewish wedding ceremonies, brides traditionally circle their grooms 7 times while standing under the chupah, the wedding canopy.

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Syrian 1st Lady Has Cancer
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian First Lady Asma Assad has been diagnosed with breast cancer and is now undergoing treatment. The announcement came in a tweet from the office of her husband, the president.

The tweet was in Arabic, here is a translation: "With strength, trust and faith ... Mrs Asma al-Assad begins her preliminary treatment of a malignant breast tumor that was discovered early."

The tweet included a photo of the first lady, her arm attached to an IV drip, alongside her husband, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Asma Assad is 42 years old. She holds dual citizenship from both England, where she was born and schooled and from Syria. Her family is from the Syrian province of Homs.

The tweet continued: "From the heart, the presidency and the staff wish Mrs. Asma a speedy recovery."

We should all join in those wishes.

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Russia Stepping Up Role in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is now stepping up their role in Syria.

Russia is patrolling the zone between Syria and Israel and report to have 1,000 sappers probing for and deactivating mines in the area.

Russia has promised Israel that they will keep Iran 50 miles from their border.

The role of the Russians will be to make certain that Iran, as well as Hezbollah, stay far away from the Israeli border.

Russia also wants to reinstitute the UN patrols in the area between Israel and Syria.

We often hear about the Russian air force, about their fighter planes and bombers. We don't hear about their army. But it should be obvious that there is much more of a Russian presence than anyone expected or speaks about.

1,000 sappers plus enough army to patrol the buffer zone between Israel and Syria is massive.

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Iranian Leader Says No War w US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei said that there is no chance for war between the US and Iran. He also said there is also no chance for talks.

The Iranian leader was responding to Washington rhetoric that has been floating both of these ideas - both that the situation is close to war and also that President Trump has floated a trial balloon to have face-to-face meetings with Iran.

The Iranian leader put the ideas to bed.

In his televised speech the Supreme Leader said that: "along with sanctions, Americans have recently raised two more options, war and talks... War will not happen and we will not enter talks."

He continued on saying that Iran has not attacked anyone and to do so would not be in line with their history. They have not and will not initiate a first strike against the United States - so there is no chance of war. And they have no interest in talking to the United States.

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China Increases Influence in MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

China has a plan to become more and more active and involved in the Middle East. The plan is in the works and China has already become a major player in the region.

The Chinese plan is based on the old "silk road market". Today's version is called the Belt and Road Initiative.

To that end the Chinese hosted 28 Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. These countries are starting to work in sync to help supply China with her needs - especially her energy needs. In return China will supply these countries with important goods.

The route is not just over land, it is also over sea.

The more China is involved in trade the more it will be involved in policy and diplomacy. That is their ulterior motive.

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Bibi Said We'll Have New Elections
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has threatened early elections if there is no resolution on the Conscription Bill.

The Conscription Bill is a compromise that balances the requirements of the democracy that require citizens to do national service and the ultra religious community that asserts learning Torah is a form of national service.

The bone of contention with this bill is that the Supreme Court of Israel ruled that the law as it stands needs to be changed - it is unfair and unclear. Revisions have already been made to the bill. The number of draftees has changed significantly from the original version.
The age of the draftees has been changed. The compromises were made to ensure that Hareidi men will join the army, albeit in small numbers.

Even these changes have not satisfied the Hareidi community. Israel's ultra religious parties want the draft of yeshiva students nixed totally. The Supreme Court on the other hand asserts there must be some parity in national service.

Rabbi Litzman, the deputy health minister and the representative of the Hareidi Achdut HaTorah coalition said: "The approval of an amended draft law is one of the central things that served as a base to the current coalition and government. We have no interest in elections, but we will not be able to compromise on the fundamental and essential thing of safeguarding the status of yeshiva students whose Torah is their work."

Litzman continued. "The different proposals will be brought for discussion to the Council of Torah Sages, which will decide on the matter. We will do as they instruct us."

The Israeli Supreme Court is extending the deadline before the bill is voted on in the hope of achieving some sort of resolution that is satisfactory for all the parties. The original deadline was the first week in September, it has now been moved to December 2nd.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is well aware that, if elections were to take place as early as February, he would be the solid winner. All other parties - with the possible exception of two right wing and one center left party would lose seats.

Netanyahu is not sweating over this bill.

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Saudia Fake Oil Output
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Wall Street Journal Market Watch published a report that Saudi Arabia is faking their output numbers.

The reason the Saudis would fake their figures is to report to OPEC that they are controlling more of the market than they actually are. They would want to do that because the US has increased its output tremendously over the last year.

This fake is a classic example of how perception is more important than reality.

The reality is that the Saudis need to make themselves look bigger than they are.

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Iran Worried About China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is worried that China is a moving away from support of their country.

China is investing $3 billion in Bangladesh - especially in infrastructure.

The Chinese have plenty of money to invest and they are already heavily invested in Asia. But Iran is worried that this specific investment may be a sign that, because of the new US sanctions on Iran, China is pulling away.

The essential point is that China is a huge economy and exports everywhere - especially to the United States. Truth is, the US cannot function without Chinese products. But China is also a great client of Iran - especially for oil and other energy resources.

China has said that they will not adhere to the US sanctions against Iran - but you never know. So Iran is watching the Bangladesh investment very carefully.

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Iran Sanctions -- Taking Sides
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Now that US sanctions have been snapped back on Iran different countries are lining up in two columns - for and against.

The EU has said that they will not support the US sanctions and will even help companies that may be punished by the United States.

China has said that they will not accept US sanctions.

Iraq, a neighbor and sworn enemy of Iran, said that they disagree with sanctions however they will abide by the US requests.

At a news conference on Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said:

"As a matter of principle we are against sanctions in the region. Blockade and sanctions destroy societies and do not weaken regimes."

"We consider them (sanctions on Iran) a strategic mistake and incorrect but we will abide by them to protect the interests of our people. We will not interact with them or support them but we will abide by them."

Surprising, not really. Some countries still recognize the power that the United States wields.

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Iran Says US Lies
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump snapped sanctions back on Iran yesterday. As a lead up to this day, President Trump announced that he is inviting Iran to dialogue - and with no preconditions.

In response, however, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that he has no interest in any dialogue with the United States. Rouhani asserted that the US is simply not trustworthy. He said the US would first need to prove their honesty and that would nearly be impossible. He said that the United States pulled out of a deal and that proves that they do not keep their word.

"We are always in favor of diplomacy and talks ... But talks needs honesty ... The US re-imposes sanctions on Iran and pulls out of the nuclear deal, and then wants to hold talks with us." That's what Rouhani said on state television.

And then he added:"Trump's call for direct talks is only for domestic consumption in America ... and to create chaos in Iran."

Iran is suing the United States in the World Court for damages done since the 19553 coup that was sponsored and coordinated by the CIA. That was the coup that ousted Iran's democratically elected president and replaced him with the Shah.

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Syrian Scientist Get Blown Up
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian scientist Dr Azizi Asber was blown up in his car, together with his driver, on Saturday night. Dr Asber was in charge of Department 4, the department responsible for two very important pro-Syria projects.

Dr. Azizi Asber was developing new chemical and biological weapons and their delivery systems. He also worked very closely with Iran's rocket scientists and was helping to develop Iranian weapons.

Anti-Assad forces have claimed responsibility.

A group called Tahrir al Sham sent out a message taking credit for perpetrating the attack. You may already be familiar with the group - they used to be called al Nusra Front and they served as the representatives of al Qaeda in Syria.

An important subgroup of Tahrir al Sham, called Abu Amara Brigades, posted the message on their online Telegram channel saying that they "planted explosives" that assassinated the scientists.

The Assad regime has not yet commented on the successful assassination
of one of their most senior scientists.

This was a huge success for groups that we haven't heard from in a while, groups that we were led to believe no longer exist.

Well, these groups have returned, quite literally, with a bang.

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Israel Blocks Ship
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The captain of a Norwegian ship that attempted to break Israel's blockade of Gaza criticized Israel for stopping his ship which was carrying humanitarian supplies.

After the captain, Herman Reksten, returned to Norway he lashed out at Israel saying that his ship was in international waters and closer to Egypt than to Israel.

He said: "We were arrested in international waters and we were closer to Egypt than Israel."

Let me clarify. International waters are clearly measured and laid down in international law -- 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state.

So yes, sometimes, one country's territorial water overlaps with its neighbors.

Israel boarded and towed the Norwegian ship into Israel and interrogated everyone on board.

The ship was breaking a legal port closure. The captain knew that. None the less, he proceeded with his journey.

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Iran's Military Drills
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to conduct military drills in the Straits of Hormuz. The United States military is aware of the plan and they will be watching the Iranian drills very intently.

That suits Iran just fine - they want to US to pay attention.

Iran is making a clear statement by way of their Revolutionary Guard and the 100 boats and thousands of troops taking part in the drills in the Straits of Hormuz. They are in charge.

One of the most effective weapons the Iranian Revolutionary Guards employs is their swift rubber boats. The boats are very small, very fast and extremely maneuverable. They are so low to the water that the boats are difficult to detect on radar.

No surprise, the Iranians are very effective at attacking large ships.

The Straits of Hormuz is a waterway through which 20% of the world's oil travels every single day. Iran knows that if they sink as few as two tankers they will successfully stall the delivery of oil and cripple worldwide oil distribution.

The Iranians also know that they can, and have in the past, attacked US ships in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran knows that they have an advantage - and that advantage includes mini submarines made specifically to hit and run in the Straits of Hormuz.

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Israel is Under Cyber Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is under cyber attack.

There has been a uptick in cyber attacks against Israel, attacks that are different from previous attacks against Israel.

Serious attacks are emanating from Iran. Even more serious attacks are coming from China and from Russia.

These are hacking attacks. The attackers are not simply interested in trying to crash sites and breach security - that is what the huge amateur hacking community normally sets as their goals. This is much, much, more sophisticated than that.

These hackers from Iran, China and Russia are trying to secretly access and monitor the acts and behavior of the Israeli military. They want military secrets and decision making protocols. The hackers, especially those from China and Russia, are particularly sophisticated and very talented.

Israel has it hands full.

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ISIS is Growing Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS perpetrated four suicide bombs in southern Syria this week murdering 250 people. In addition to the murder, ISIS kidnapped 36 people - 20 women and 16 children, all Druze.

It all took place as Syria basks in the glory of what they are calling a total victory over ISIS and the rebels who, for the past 8 years, have been trying to oust President Bashar Assad.

That victory is not as clear cut as we have been led to believe.

ISIS is now grabbing land and instilling fear in Southern Syria. They're doing the same thing in Iraq where they have begun kidnapping and murdering. Not many are paying attention to this rekindling and reconstitution of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

But these are developments we cannot ignore.


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Persian Carpets and Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Sanctions against Iran often focus on oil.

But one of the most famous industries in Iran will be totally eviscerated by the new US sanctions. The carpet industry!

Iran's carpet industry, their famous Persian carpets, will lose hundreds of millions of dollars, as much as half a billion dollars, because of US sanctions.

The Iranian carpet industry employs hundreds of thousands of people.

The industry will continue, but it will hobble along with only a fraction of the workers and it will produce only a fraction of their famous Persian rugs because there will be no market to sell them.

After sanctions were lifted in 2016 under the Obama administration and once the market opened almost all Persian carpets were sold to the United States.

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Syrian Refugees Returning Home
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Refugees are returning to Syria.

Recently, 33 bus loads of refugees - complete families, crossed from southern Lebanon back in to Syria.

They were on their way home.

This was a group of several thousand people. Hundreds of thousands more are preparing for their return. It is the Russians setting the stage for this return. That's because Russia wants to repopulate Syria with Syrians.

And Russia has several reasons for fulfilling that plan.

The most important is to rebuild an economy. Syria needs to return to normal and that requires the million plus refugees now in Lebanon and Jordan to restart their lives back home.

Russia also wants to bolster Assad. The return of refugees will not only bolster Assad, it will afford him stability and the ability to challenge the world view of anti-Assad forces. The future status and stability of the country requires regular civilians to live normal lives.

That is the new norm for Syria. That is Russia's objective.

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Rock Falls & Conspiracies Explode
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The conspiracy theory about Israel destroying the mosque on top of the Temple Mount is again spreading throughout the Muslim world.

This time the stimulus for conspiracy theorists was the rock that dislodged from the Western Wall and smashed on the ground.

Osama Qawassmeh, a spokesperson for Fatah, called it a "dangerous sign of what was happening in the al-Aqsa Mosque and its surroundings."

Yusef Natsheh, director of Islamic Archeology and Tourism at the Haram al-Sharif, claimed that the dislodging of the boulder was "not casual."

"This is a dangerous incident," Natsheh said. "It was most likely pre=-planned. This could have been a balloon test or experiment to determine the direction of the excavation working the thickness of the walls of al-Aqsa Mosque."

Unfortunately, sometimes rocks fall off walls. It happens for many different reasons. Sometimes, as in this case, the rock protruded from an arch, known as Robinson's Arch. The arch suspends a stairway that was destroyed in the year 70CE.

That's a very long time ago.

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ISIS Making Comeback in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has made a slow and steady comeback in Iraq. They have increased their operations and are focused on kidnappings and killings.

ISIS now is using guerrilla tactics in an attempt to instill fear and to slowly, slowly, start controlling small sections of Iraq. This is all happening months after Iraq declared a total victory over ISIS. Only a few short months since ISIS was supposed to be totally defeated.

ISIS is now clearly making headway. ISIS is not yet controlling any region, but they are working towards that goal.

ISIS' guerrilla operations need to be stopped. ISIS cannot be permitted to reconstitute itself, not in Iraq, not anyplace.

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Iran Says Don't Block Our Oil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is responding to US diplomatic pressure. Once again, they have threatened the United States saying that If the US acts against Iranian oil exports, they will counter.

Bahram Qassemi, Iran's spokesman for the foreign ministry, was quoted in IRNA saying: "If America wants to take a serious step in this direction it will definitely be met with a reaction and equal countermeasures from Iran."

Iran is not only referring to blocking the water channels that transport oil. They are also referring to diplomatic pressure.

The United States is now aggressively working to stop countries from importing Iranian oil. Iran has a counter plan on the diplomatic side - they are promising a serious response.

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New Methods Around Iran Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Countries are finding new methods to end around the new United States sanctions being imposed on Iran.

Many of these countries, including India, are afraid that the US might bring sanctions against them as well. But that fear has not stopped them from importing Iranian oil.

Another example is Sri Lanka, which owes Iran $250 million accrued over the past few months. Sri Lanka is planning on paying Iran with tea.

This is just the beginning.

Countries need Iranian oil - and so they will certainly continue to import Iranian oil.

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Iran is Plotting A Cyber Attack
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Cyber terror can bring down a nation.

A properly placed cyber attack can bring a nation to its knees.

NBC news ran a story explaining that Iranian hackers are planning to attack US, European and Middle East countries. The source quoted in the report said that Iranian hackers were developing strikes to target US banks, electricity, water and other infrastructure.

Iran has done this already. In 2010 they attacked a dam in New York. Some analysts claimed that Iranian attack was in response to the Stuxnet virus that had attacked Iran.

Iran is plotting cyber attacks. Any and every country throughout the world should be working on defense and counter measures against an Iranian aggression. Not to do so is foolish and self-destructive.

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Arab Glides into Syria to Join ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli Arab is now under arrest and being tried for joining ISIS.

Nidal Salah, along with his friend, used gliders and flew into Syria in October 2015. As he was landing he was shot at - but not shot down. And then, after landing, he was arrested by ISIS and brutally tortured. Finally, Salah convinced ISIS that he wanted to join them. He then fought for ISIS.

Some time later Salah escaped and hired a smuggler to cross the Syrian border into Turkey. There he met family members. He eventually flew back to Israel where he was arrested and now charged.

The gag order was lifted yesterday, after his indictment.

As shocking as it is that an Israeli would join ISIS, it is even more shocking that he would return to Israel. When he was still in Turkey Salah's family brought over an Israel lawyer - he knew he was going to be arrested.

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China Invests in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

China is going to overtake the United States in foreign investments in Israel.

This is very big news.

In the year 2016 alone, China's investments in Israel tripled to $16billion dollars - all in one year alone.

China is set on investing in Israel to get their hands on new technology. Israel is the center of that new tech. China knows that in order to be part of that technology, they need to be close to Israel.

They Chinese can't invent the tech, but they can invest in it. They invest in the ideas and then own part of the tech.

This will put the Chinese in competition with the United States which does the exact same thing.

Of course there are dangers in accepting Chinese investments, but the dangers pale in comparison to the benefits.

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Iran Takes US to World Court
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It's pure Chutzpah - there is no other word for it.

Iran is taking the United States to the World Court, officially known as the United Nations International Court of Justice in The Hague.

Iran is suing the United States over the new sanctions being imposed on them. Their filing asserts that the US is in violation of a 1955 bilateral trade treaty between the two nations.

Sanctions or disrupting the free trade between the two countries is a breach of that treaty.

Iran is actually asking for a provisional ruling so as to lift the sanctions in the meantime and to then set a court date for complete arguments to be heard.

The United States will argue that the World Court does not have jurisdiction.

In fact, the World Court both does and does not have jurisdiction.

They are the go to address for countries when there is a treaty violation. But the 1955 treaty was with a different Iran and the sanctions the United States is instituting are part of a foreign policy of a sovereign nation - and that does not fall within the jurisdiction of the World Court.

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Hamas is Failing in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


Hamas is claiming that Israel wants to de-stabilize Gaza in the hope of making the situation so intolerable for Gazans, that they will rise up against Hamas leadership.

Hamas leadership is asserting that that is why Israel shut the Kerem Shalom crossing to all goods except for food and medicine, and even those exceptions must receive prearranged permission to cross the border.

Hamas issued a statement saying: "Israeli sanctions demonstrate its desire to increase the siege of Gaza and commit more crimes against its people. The world must end its silence in the face of Israel's crimes against humanity."
Hamas is not entirely wrong.

Israel is using the border closure as a vehicle to try to influence the masses who live in Gaza.

Israel is tightening the screws in order to force Gazans to rise up, to wrest control from their leadership and to act to defend themselves.

Israel wants life to be better for Gazans.

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Iran Must Decide about Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is facing a real dilemma. They must decide what to do in Syria.

The civil war in Syria, is drawing to an end. Bashar Assad is clearly in power and Iran's role in Syria is going to have to change.

Russia does not want the Iranians in Syria, mostly because Iran complicates their role own in Syria. Russia wants every power out of Syria except for Hezbollah and Russia.

Iran needs to calculate whether there is a positive role for them to play in Syria. Most analysts would say Iran is no longer helpful in Syria, so they should leave. But Iran has no interest in giving up any power or influence.

Iran has asserted that the only way they would even consider leaving Syria is if Assad asked them to leave. That would happen only if Russia demands that Assad make the request and make it both publicly and privately.

If Iran retreats from Syria it will draw down tensions and make for a safer region.

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China Wants to Help in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

China has decided to up its game in the Middle East.

President Xi of China has announced that the Chinese will increase their role in the Palestinian/Israeli peace process and in the rest of the Middle East.

It begins with China's pledge of 100 million yuan to the Palestinians. 100 million yuan is equivalent to only $15 million. For China, that's chump change.

China has also committed to partnering with the Arab League to advance peace.

In the end, this is simply a gesture.
China is not really serious about playing a central role in the Middle East.

If they were serious they would give at least $150 million, ten times their current pledge, to the Palestinians.

The ultimate goal of China is to try to oust the United States from any role in the Middle East. In that, China will fail.

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Bibi Meets Putin in Moscow Before World Cup
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin just before the World Cup semi-final which was played in Moscow.

Putin invited many world leaders to the July 15th World Cup finals. Netanyahu countered and asked to meet and watch the semi-finals instead.

It was a perfect maneuver. It gave Netanyahu and Putin time alone without pressure.

The most crucial part of the meeting was Israel telling Russia that they will not tolerate any violation of the Golan Heights buffer zone that separates Israel and Syria.

Israel will attack any force that approaches the area - no matter if they hail from Iran, Syria or Lebanon.

The message was transmitted and it was received.

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Iran Emptying Accounts for Cash
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is emptying accounts in Germany. They are trying to bring back as many dollars and Euros as possible before the US sanctions kick in.

At least 300 million Euros, which is equivalent to $350 million, have been transferred from Germany to Iran over the past few weeks.

On the one hand, Iran is doing everything they can to insulate themselves against US sanctions that kick in August and then in November.

On the other hand, Iran is counting on President Trump to keep on tweeting.
The more the US president tweets, the higher the price of oil soars.

Iran is a nuclear leader. The idea is to try to tamp them down. It's not going so well.

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China Blocking US Oil
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

In an act of defiance, an independent Chinese oil refinery has suspended all US oil imports and replaced them with Iranian oil.

The company, Dongming Petro-Chemical Company, is just one company in what appears to be a pre-emptive Chinese strike against the United States.

The Chinese are also planning to charge a 25% tariff on US oil imports into China.

China currently imports 400,000 barrels of US crude oil per day. The additional tariff coupled with the suspension of importing US crude oil will have a huge impact on the price of US oil and gasoline.

Analysts speculate that China will drop almost all US oil supplies. China will make up the loss in their oil supply by importing from West Africa and the Middle East.

Never forget that China is the largest consumer of oil in the world. The Chinese are the most important oil market in the world. If the United States is frozen out of that market it will have a catastrophic impact on the oil market.

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Israel Strikes Syrian Airbase
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel struck a Syrian airbase named T- 4 yesterday, Sunday. They hit this very same base several months ago.

This airstrike took place two days after Israel attacked a Syrian artillery base from which missiles were launched toward Israel. The missiles, which landed in no man's land, were tracked from that base.

Israel struck the Syrian T- 4 base after discovering that Iran had outfitted the base with a modern, sophisticated, anti-aircraft battery.

Israel has been threatening to make certain that Iran not change the status quo in Syria. They want to stop the buildup of weapons Iran is willing to provide to help their enemy.

These attacks are perfect examples of how Israel is actively preventing a change of balance of military power in Syria.

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World's Largest Shipper Pulls out of Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

One of the world's largest cargo shippers, a French company called CMA CGM, has decided to cease all business involvement with Iran effective ASAP.

This is a massive blow to Iran.

Iran is attempting to rally interested parties to resist US sanctions by appealing to their independent side. They are making the claim that the United States should not and cannot dictate world economic policy. Iran is arguing that each country should be able to make its own decision as to whether they choose to support Iran.

"European countries have the political will to maintain economic ties with Iran based on the JCPOA (the nuclear deal), but they need to take practical measures within the time limit," Rouhani wrote on Saturday on his official website.

That may be true, but it is also true that everyone needs to do business with the United States if they want to expand their markets. And US President Trump seems to be following through with his threats.

Countries realize that they must tread lightly in dealing with the United States - their entire economies are in the balance.

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Iran Doesn't Like the Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rouhani was working his magic in Europe this week.

It's all about the Iranian version of the "art the deal." The "deal" is the version of the nuclear package, now that the United States has pulled out.

Today, foreign ministers are meeting to discuss the newly proposed deal. In advance of the meeting Rouhani read the proposal. And then he reached out and called the French and German leaders.

Rouhani told French President Emanuel Macron that "[t]he package proposed by Europe ... does not meet all our demands."

He told German Chancellor Angela Merkel "[u]nfortunately the proposed package lacked an action plan or a clear roadmap for continuation of cooperation. It only included some general promises like previous EU statements."

These quotes come to us from Iranian news coverage. They are very revealing, which is very uncharacteristic of Iranian leadership. They tell us Iran did not get everything they asked for.

That is the nature of negotiation. It remains to be seen if Iran will simply walk away or if they will continue to try to reach a deal.

We will have our answer soon.

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Iran Threatens US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has threatened to shut all Iranian oil exports and is demanding that all Iranian oil become "toxic" after November 4th.

Iranian President Rouhani posted on his website and then reiterated in a press conference he gave in Bern, Switzerland, that the United States is making a mistake. He said that the United States has not thought through the ramifications of this decision.

In essence, Rouhani said that it will not be possible to have a situation in which Iran is the only country in the region which does not export oil - and mark his words, Iran will make certain of that.

The post on Rouhani's website reads: "The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran's oil exports. They don't understand the meaning of this statement, because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported, while the region's oil is exported."

At the press conference in Bern when he was asked whether those comments constituted a threat to interfere with the shipping of neighboring countries, Rouhani replied: "Assuming that Iran could become the only oil producer unable to export its oil is a wrong assumption ... The United States will never be able to cut Iran's oil revenues."

Rouhani is flat out saying that, if pushed by the United States, Iran will shut the Straits of Hormuz and no one's oil will be shipped. If the Straits are shut it will eliminate 1/3 of the world's oil.

Rouhani is also saying that with the reduction of Iranian oil plus the stoppage of the Straits of Hormuz, the price of oil and all its products including gas will skyrocket.

The United States cannot afford to let that happen.

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Putin Using the World Cup
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Putin, as I've said before, is using the World Cup to his advantage. He is using soccer to advance his role as world class mover and shaker. He is playing his own game of Maneuver and Manipulate as the consummate pro.

We already know that Putin invited a long list of world leaders to be his guests at the finals on July 15th. We know, too, that Palestinian President Abbas accepted his invite. The question was whether Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who got the same invite, would attend.

We have our answer. Israel countered and asked if Bibi could, rather than attend the finals, attend the semi-finals in Moscow on Wednesday July 11th.

As of now, that date has been penciled in by both Putin and Netanyahu.
Before the semi-finals these two leaders will sit down and hash out some important issues.

Putin and Netanyahu last met about seven weeks ago. They spoke on the phone last week.

The two leaders meet and speak regularly. It is to the best advantage of both Russia and Israel to make sure that they are both on the same page on a long list of international issues.

This counter move by Bibi assures him a great seat at the World Cup semi-finals, which could be a better match than the finals, and a private meeting with Putin. Bibi will have achieved the dream diplomatic play of so many other world leaders.

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Iran Claims Israel is Stealing their Clouds
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

I'm reminded of Chicken Little shouting "the sky is falling."
Iranian leadership is shouting that Israel is stealing Iranian rain and snow clouds.

Cloud theft, according to Iran, is the result of Western oppression of Iran.
In a press conference Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, head of Iran's Civil Defense Organization, said: "The changing climate in Iran is suspect."

Jalali is quoted as saying: "Foreign interference is suspected to have played a role in climate change," and is insisting that results from an Iranian scientific study "confirm" the claim.eHe said: "Israel and another country in the region have joint teams which work to ensure clouds entering Iranian skies are unable to release rain."

Jalali continued: "On top of that, we are facing the issue of cloud and snow theft," citing a survey showing that above 2,200 meters all mountainous areas between Afghanistan and the Mediterranean are covered in snow, except Iran.

Iran's meteorological service expert disagrees. The head of Iran's meteorological service, Ahad Vazife, was quoted on ISNA, an official Iranian news service. He said that General Jalali "probably has documents of which I am not aware, but on the basis of meteorological knowledge, it is not possible for a country to steal snow or clouds."

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Syrian Refugees Love Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

As crisis builds in Syria, local Syrians are running toward Israel and toward Jordan.

200,000 Syrians are fleeing to escaping the most awful experience of life in Syria today.

At the Jordanian border Syrian refugees just stood there. And waited. And waited. They got nothing.

On the Israeli border medical teams came to treat the wounded. They brought tents and clothing and food along with medical supplies.

Ynet news interviewed the refugees. Here is one of their comments. "We saw a very noble stance by the Israeli side, both by the aid that it sent and in its treating of the wounded."

In essence, refugees are running away from Syria and gaining safety and medical treatment in Israel. It breaks all the stereotypes.

Israel cares more about Syrian refugees than their Arab neighbors do.

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Water Crisis in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

This is a crisis you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy - and yet, here we are.

Iran is in the midst of a serious water crisis.

According to some predictions, as many as 97% of Iranians will be hit by the crisis. Others put the number at 66% of Iranians who will be seriously affected.

The protests we are seeing in Iran are as much about economics and freedom as they are about poor planning and the massive water shortage.

Just days ago Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke directly to the people of Iran saying that Israel can help with their water crisis. He said that Israel cares about the people of Iran. He said that Israel cares more about Iranian citizens than their own leadership cares about them.

The water crisis touches every aspect of society - food and health as well as defense. Everything is affected by the water crisis.

The situation can be resolved.

It requires using a few methods. The fastest resolution is to import water from Turkey - it's expensive and a short fix. Then comes borrowing technology from Israel - the world leader in water crisis aversion and conservation.

But Iran will not take the help. And Iranians are suffering.

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Trump Putin Summit
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The announcement has been made. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet US President Donald Trump on July 16 in Helsinki. It's all very convenient - NATO is meeting on July 10 & 11th in Helsinki.

The World Cup finals will take place on July 15 in Sochi, Russia. Putin is hosting the events and he will want all of his guests to be personally engaged in his world view. It is still not clear if President Trump will attend. It would be a very wise idea if he accepted Putin's invitations and attended - not because of Putin but because the world will be watching.

The obvious topics for the US / Russia summit are Iran and Syria. The centerpiece of their discussion about Iran will be nuclear activity. About Syria, the discussion will be stabilizing the country and potential solutions, if there are any.

There is little that can be done about either of these two issues without the benefit of time and dispassionate analysis. Israel has already taken that track.

Vis a vis Iran and Syria, Israel's solutions and suggested solutions should become a model for conflict analysis and resolution. Russia and the United States take heed.

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Iran Calls Enemies the Satanic Triangle
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is lashing out at the United States and saying that the new sanctions they are facing will not affect them.

The Supreme Leader of Iran military adviser has called the enemy they face a Satanic Triangle. The three sides of his triangle are Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia.

Within Iran there have been protests stimulated by the country's economic failures. Leaders are saying that anyone who hurts the economy of Iran will be prosecuted.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said: "We will not surrender to the United States. I kiss the hand of every person in the Iranian nation and we say to the world that our regime cannot be undermined."

Rouhani called it a "psychological economic and political war." Trying to calm the uncertainty inside Iran Rouhani said: "Even in the worst case, I promise that the basic needs of Iranians will be provided. We have enough sugar, wheat, and cooking oil. We have enough foreign currency to inject into the market."

The situation in Iran is serious - and Iranian leadership realizes just how serious it is.

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Putin Invites Leaders to World Cup Finals
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Putin is at it again - manipulating and creating a very ripe diplomatic climate.

Putin is using the finals of the World Cup, the world's most watched sporting event which will take place on July 15th, as a lure to bring world leaders together in order to achieve his own goals.

To that end, the Russian leader has invited numerous other world leaders to join him and together, watch the final game. On the list of invites are Palestinian President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

No surprise, the Palestinian leader said "yes" and the Palestinian ambassador to Moscow, Abdel Hafiz Nofal, is quoted in the Russian media outlet RIA saying that Abbas will meet with Putin on July 23.

Netanyahu has not yet responded, but it would be very difficult to decline a perfect seat to the greatest soccer game - the final of the World Cup.

Putin last met Netanyahu in May. They speak regularly. There is great interest on both sides to make certain that their forces do not butt heads in Syria or over Syria.

Putin has also invited US President Trump, North Korean President Kim Jung Un and the leaders of the EurAsia Economic Union (EAEU).

Putin is doing what he does best - he is using his natural resources to his best advantage.

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US Peace Plan W or W/O Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

No doubt about it, imagining a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians without the Palestinians is hard to do.

And yet, that seems to be the direction things are going.

US President Trump's special advisor on the deal has made it perfectly clear in almost every way and at almost every opportunity - including in Palestinian media - that the US is headed in that direction. Jared Kushner, son-in-law and Middle East negotiator, told anyone who would listen that the US wants to include Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, but in order to be included, Abbas must agree to sit down and be part of the discussion. If not, then the US will pursue a deal without the Palestinians.

The idea is to take the deal to the masses.

The first step the US is taking is persuading Arab world leaders to become the defenders of the Palestinians. The masses of Palestinians will genuflect to the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

These leaders will urge the Palestinian masses along, convincing them that their local leaders are not acting in their best interests.

If that can be pulled off, it will be a first step in the right direction.

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Yemen Attacks Saudi Capital
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Official Saudi media outlets reported that their air defense systems intercepted a rocket over Riyadh, the capital city, yesterday.

The rocket was shot from Yemen and, had it struck its target on the ground, it could have caused major damage.

The Houthi in Yemen are backed by Shiite Iran. They are attacking the Sunni Saudis.

The missile was the Houthi response to Saudi support of coalition forces and to the numerous aerial attacks on Houthi Iranian troops.
Yemeni Houthi have shot over 100 rockets into Saudi Arabia over the past 3 years. Most of the rockets fall short of their targets, but many have been intercepted.

Yemen has been attacking Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has, in turn, underwritten the Yemeni groups that are trying to defeat the Houthis. The Saudis are using their air force and striking Houthi targets.

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IDF Shoots at Drone from Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 24, 2 018

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this morning Israel launched a Patriot anti-missile salvo at a drone that was infiltrating northern Israel from Syria.

The trail of the Patriot was filmed by numerous people in the Safed area.

The drone was flying from the Syrian controlled area of the Golan Heights into Israel. These drones are large and are used for two purposes - primarily for reconnaissance but also for attack. This drone, and others like it, is part of a Syrian/Iranian system patrolling the skies and gathering information.

The Patriot is a US weapon that Israel purchased in order to bolster their defense against missiles, just like this drone, entering their airspace.

On Nov 17, 2017 Israel shot down a drone in a similar fashion.

Earlier today the Patriot missed its target, but despite that, the drone changed course and returned to base.

Israel must make certain that their airspace is not breached. The information Iran and Syria could garner from aerial photos could be devastating to Israel’s security.

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Iran Makes 15 Demands of US
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 22, 2 018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran posted 15 demands for the United States. They say that the demands are a list of the 15 things necessary to bring them back to the table. They are basic requirements.

The list was provided to the US by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

These 15 items are a direct response to the actions taken by United States, that is clear and obvious. In May the US set down a series of demands for Iran and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is the person who listed those demands.

It's a case of tit for tat.

Iran's demands include the return of the United States to the P5+1 Nuke Deal. They are also demanding that the US stop providing aid to Yemen invaders. The expression "Yemen invaders," when spoken by the Iranians, means the Saudis. Another demand is that US stop their opposition to Israel's nuclear disarmament.

There is very little chance that this Iranian strategy will succeed. Never the less, Iran is taking it very seriously.

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Gaza Changing The Rules of Engagement
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 21, 2 018

I've Been Thinking:

45 mortars and rockets from Gaza were shot toward Israel yesterday.
Seven were intercepted. At least five fell in Gaza. The others were left alone, they were not en route to populated areas within Israel.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad of Gaza claimed responsibility for the rockets.

In response, Israel struck 25 Hamas targets. Hamas and Islamic Jihad, for their part, claim that they are responding to Israeli aggression. They have announced that they will counter every Israeli attack with an attack.

Islamic Jihad said that, as of now, Israel can no longer act freely in Gaza.

These statements - and more importantly, the launching of rockets and mortars as a response to Israel's response - is a new reality and a new strategy for Gaza.

It will not impact Israel's actions but it is, none the less, a significant change in status.

It's real purpose is not to intimidate Israel. It's real purpose is to empower Gazans, to give Gazans a sense that they are not defenseless against Israeli attacks.

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US Team Meets w Jordan King
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 20, 2 018

I've Been Thinking:

US President Donald Trump's Middle East team met with Jordan's King Abdullah II yesterday. The team also plans to meet with leaders from Egypt, Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia over the next few days.

The US team leaders are in Jared Kushner, presidential son-in-law and Presidential Special Middle East Envoy and presidential advisor Jason Greenblatt.

The meeting with Abdullah took place in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

It followed one day after the Jordanian King hosted a quiet and surprise visit to Amman by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Everyone is weighing in on the still unknown, new, US peace plan.

We do not know what is in the plan only that the Palestinians do not like it. Once again the Palestinian press was filled with vitriol and rejection of the plan.


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CNN Reporter Tours Gaza Tunnel
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

CNN reporter Ian Lee was blindfolded and brought on a tour of a terror tunnel by Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The tour was taped and, quite frankly, not at all interesting. However - one question and answer were very insightful.

Lee asked about indiscriminately shooting rockets into Israel. He said that it appears that Islamic Jihad targets children's schools.

Islamic Jihad leadership responded that they do not deliberately target children.

Islamic Jihads wants to wreak as much havoc upon Israel as possible. Targeting children hurts Israel more than any other attack. Children are the most valued jewel in Israeli society. And that's why Jihad definitely wants to target children.

Their tunnels are an attack route into Israel. They are shelters to protect against Israeli air force attacks.

These tunnels are their lifeline, they are Islamic Jihad’s most effective attack weapon against Israel.

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Hateful Sermon in Mosque in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday over 90,000 people attended prayer services at the Al Aqsa mosque atop the temple mount in Jerusalem. They were also treated to a lengthy sermon which was extremely critical of the US and Israel.

Al Aqsa is the place where according to Muslim tradition Muhammad journeyed on in his nighttime mirage. It was a guided tour on his famous steed he saw Al Aqsa and even ascended to heaven.

Friday was special because it was Eid al Fitr the holiday/feast that concludes the month long Muslim fast of Ramadan.

In his sermon, the Mufti of Jerusalem, Sheik Muhammad Hussein, used the opportunity to lash out at the US and Israel especially US President Donald Trump. The Mufti shouted that the US peace plan which is about to be unveiled is destructive to the Palestinian cause. He said that "this is an unfair plan that aims at the liquidation of the Palestinian cause."

As you can imagine the Mufti also had sharp words about the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem.

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Miss Iraq in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iraq's Miss Universe 2017 is visiting Israel. She took a selfie with her Israeli counterpart.

Ever since posting the selfie, Miss Universe has been getting death threats. She is being cursed across the Arab world.

Miss Iraq now lives in the United States. She is visiting Israel as part of a program sponsored by the American Jewish Committee. After arriving she explained that she chose to come to Israel "because I want peace for everyone, for Israelis, for Palestinians."

The response Miss Iraq is getting to her visit to Israel underscores how important it is for people and for leaders to step up and embrace forward thinking solutions and engage in real dialogue.

It also demonstrates how petty and hateful people can be.

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Large Numbers of Iranians Support Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

#WeStandWithIsrael is the twitter hashtag that Iranian supporters of Israel are using to show their defiance against Iran's leadership.

On the same day and at the exact same hour that Iranian leadership organized Al Quds Day, a day condemning Israel, tens of thousands of people hashtaged #WeStandWithIsrael. The time was 9PM.

Israel's twitter feed directed at Iran and in Persian has 60,000 followers. The feed reaches as many as 2.5 million readers in a week.

The take away from this is that there are many, many Iranians who support Israel.

These revolutionaries, these young Iranians, are risking their lives to announce on twitter that they support Israel despite their national and religious leaders who rant and rave and proclaim a commandment to destroy the Jewish State.

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Iran Wants More
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

French President Macron called Iranian President Rouhani yesterday with an update on the progress he and the other remaining P5+1 leaders made on the nuke deal.

Macron's office issued a statement saying:

"The President of the Republic recalled the will of France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China, to continue to implement the Vienna agreement in all its dimensions."

"The president informed President Rouhani of the progress in the work being done on our side. He hoped that Iran, for its part, will fulfill its obligations without any ambiguity."

Meanwhile, according to Iranian media, President Rouhani of Iran told Macron that Iran cannot stay in the agreement without receiving much better incentives and benefits and compensation.

Rouhani's website posted: "We must not let this great achievement of diplomacy be destroyed by others' unilateral actions, which are unfaithful to their promises."

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Fire Balloons the New Kites
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Incendiary balloons are the newest danger hitting Israel from Gaza. They are a version of the incendiary kite.

The principle is the same.

Gazans launch a helium filled balloon. Attached to the balloon is a lit Molotov cocktail. The balloon is lofted up and into the wind, propelled westward by the strong breeze of the Mediterranean Sea.

When the lit bottle explodes the balloon bursts, dropping a fireball into Israel, igniting whatever it hits.

Israel is knocking the balloons out of the sky with drones - just like they knock out the kites. The drones fly into the balloons while still in Gaza and they fall there.

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Iran is Back in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

There are reports that Iran and Hezbollah have pulled out of southern Syria.

And there are other reports, like the one that ran in the Wall Street Journal on Friday and is now being reported across the Middle East that Iran and Hezbollah have returned to southern Syria.

They left in their uniforms and returned in Syrian army uniforms.

The change is not just a ruse to fool those who asked them to leave - it is an attempt to trick Israel. In Syrian army uniforms, Iranian and Hezbollah forces will not be obvious targets for Israeli strikes.

Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah announced on Friday that, "if the whole world comes together to force us to leave Syria, they will not be able to evict us."

This is a typical fake out by Iran. They said they were leaving and then came right back.

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Israel & Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone's eyes are on US President Donald Trump and his historic summit with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

But that's not the only game in town. Other very important international events are taking place and not getting the media coverage they deserve.

Some savvy leaders have actually intentionally taken advantage of the moment and timed their events to coincide with the US/NoKo summit knowing that they will be able to skirt the international limelight.
For example, Kenya is asking Sudan for permission to fly their commercial airliners over their airspace en route to Israel.

Sudan and Israel do not have diplomatic relations -- but one of the documents included in the trove of documents leaked by wikileaks provided a telegram from a senior adviser to the president of Sudan to a senior US official.

The telegram reads: "If things were going well with the US, you might be able to help us with Israel, as they are your closest ally in the region."

The plan is to start with one flight a week. This is a very big step forward in terms of African / European business. Israel can easily be a hopping point en route for travelers and for goods.

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Israel Asks FIFA To Ban Argentina
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Argentina has cancelled their friendly soccer match with Israel, scheduled to take place this Saturday June 9th in Jerusalem at 3:30pm Israel time.

It is clear that the BDS movement was able to successfully influence Argentina to scratch the match.

Now the Israeli branch of the Football (Soccer) Association is asking FIFA, the World Soccer Federation, to ban Argentina from the World Cup which takes place in Russia this summer. Israel is saying that Argentina's cancellation of the match was a case of "religious discrimination."

Comtec, the Israeli company that organized the game, has already paid the Argentina Soccer Association $2 million from the sale of tickets - the game sold out within 20 minutes of going on sale.

Discrimination is against FIFA rules. If FIFA leadership chooses to remove Argentina from the organization it would be an extremely serious punishment and would send a message to everyone else not to discriminate against Israel

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Farrakan Again!
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Louis Farrakan delivered a speech recently in which he attacked Jews and Judaism. It was a speech which was a lot like a medieval canard against Jews.

The founder of the Nation of Islam said:

"Satanic Jews who have infected the whole world with poison and deceit."

He said: "the false Jew will lead you to filth and indecency. That's who runs show business. That's who runs the record industry. That's who runs television." Farrakhan alleged that Jews often force aspiring actors to submit to anal sex. "Do you know that many of us who go to Hollywood seeking a chance have to submit to anal sex and all kind [sic] of debauchery [before] they give you a little part?" ... "It's called the casting couch. See that's Jewish power."

It is hard to imagine that in 2018 people like this still exist and speak out publicly. More amazing is that so many people actually believe these lies.

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Israel Thwarted Numerous Attacks in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on a European trip trying to convince leaders there to join Israel's global point of view.

One of Netanyahu's talking points is his also assertion that Israel continues to help Europe through sharing intelligence.

Netanyahu said: "Israel is operating against the threat of radical Islam. We prevent awful terror attack, also in France. Israel has thwarted many terror attacks across Europe and will continue doing so."

This is an essential point.

Israel is doing its job to help protect Europe. Now Israel wants a quid pro quo. Netanyahu is asking Europe to join forces with Israel and the United States.

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Putin Tells US -- Reward N Korea
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin was interviewed in ORF Austrian public broadcasting an media group. newspaper.

Putin told the paper that the US should make certain to reward North Korea if a real deal is worked out.

Putin said that if North Korea agrees to denuclearize, the US must entice them trough aid packages.

In Putin's words, the deal would not be "a one way street."

These statements make it clear to all clear that Putin wants to be a player in this game, too.

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Assad to Visit N Korea
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The web lit up yesterday as North Korean media announced that Syrian President Assad will soon be visiting North Korea.

The reports in Rodong Sinmun, the official media mouthpiece of the North Korean dictator, did not specify when the Assad trip will take place.

The timing of the announcement was not accidental. The new North Korean ambassador to Syria was welcomed by Assad, but that was incidental. The real reason for making the announcement is that it dovetailed into the announcement that the summit between the United States and North Korea was still on for June 12.

The statement from Assad read: "I am going to visit the DPRK and meet His Excellency Kim Jong Un."

"I am sure that he will achieve the final victory and realize the reunification of Korea without fail." Syria "will completely support all the policies and measures" of North Korea and President Assad is certain of their victory.

Now we wait, watch and analyze.

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Dueling Resolutions at UN
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The US proposed a resolution in the UN Security Council to condemn Hamas for their attack on Israel.

Unfortunately, the only vote in favor of the United States resolution was the United States.

The vote came on the heels of a Kuwaiti resolution condemning Israel for excessive force and asking for Palestinians to get international protection. The US vetoed that resolution.

It was a clear back and forth anti Israel - pro Israel set of resolutions.
Yet---

These resolutions illustrate how the UN Security Council has made huge strides. The United States is trying to level the playing field in the Security Council. They are trying to make certain that Israel gets a fair shake and these two resolutions are the proof.

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Iran Tourism Takes a Dive
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Trust me on this, it's true - As a result of the nuke deal Iran was expecting a huge increase in tourism amounting to 3%-4% of their annual income.

Iranians were planning on their tourism expanding every year. Next year they were planning on it being 6%-8% of GNP.

The problem is that new US sanctions are discouraging Iran's potential tourists.

But there are tourist coming to Iran.

There are curious tourists interested in visiting Iran and reporting back to their friends and relatives about their experiences. Most of these tourists are thrill seekers and there are plenty of these thrill seeking tourists.

And among the first of Iran's visitors are tourism writers and photographers, there to document the pristine adventures of uncharted escapes and trails. These are the tourists who blaze the trails for main stream conservative tourists.

What was supposed to be a real economic find for Iran has just had the rug pulled out from underneath it.

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3 Countries to Boycott Israel Hosting Eurovision
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

It's a cardinal rule: the winner of the Eurovision, the international song festival, hosts the next year's competition.

This year, Israel won and next year Eurovision will be held in Jerusalem.

But it's not that simple - politics have set in and the situation is getting ugly.

Iceland, Sweden and Ireland have announced that they will not attend next year's competition in Jerusalem. They have chosen to boycott a cultural event whose very purpose - much like international sports, is to bring different people from differ countries together.

Knowledge and interaction promote dialogue and removes bias and hatred. Some nations, like some people, just can't get beyond their own biases.

That's a shame.


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No World Cup For Hamas Prisoners
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Gilad Erdan, Israel's Minister of Public Security, is forbidding Hamas prisoners from watching the World Cup which begins in three weeks and takes place this summer in Russia.

That is real punishment.

Erdan is also investigating whether or not he can strip all TV viewing privileges from Hamas prisoners all year round.

The World Cup takes place every 4 years. This summer, literally 50% of the entire world will be watching.

Four years ago several prisoners were forbidden from watching the Games and in response the prisoners appealed to the Israeli Supreme Court. They won. The Court ruled that the prisoners could watch the World Cup.

For die hard fans, not watching the World Cup is truly cruel and unusual punishment .

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Philip Cross- Wiki Editor Draws Disdain
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Philip Cross, as he is called, is quite simply, impressive. He has edited Wikipedia over 133,000 times over the past 14 years. He has never missed a day and edits, on average, 30 times a day. And nobody knows his identity or real name.

Cross is hated by many because of his accomplishment. Rewards have been offered to discover his true identity. Cross is hated because he is relentless in his pursuit of truth. Those who hate him are on the other side of his quick typing and insight.

Cross has, for example, edited and reedited the Wikipedia entry for George Galloway 1,700 times. Really! Galloway is a British politician who resigned under a cloud. He was such an anti-Semite that he was an embarrassment to his Labour Party especially his dear friend Cobryn the leader of the Labour party. Galloway's people edit his entry and then Cross re-edits it - over and over and over again.

Cross has no sympathy for Russian expansion, for liberal / labour conflict, for socialism, Marxism or anti-Semitism.

Some people guess that Philip Cross is not a person, but a group of British intel officers. Some argue that Cross is a group of former disgruntled journalists.

It doesn't matter. Philip Cross is leveling the playing field. He or they are making certain that we, the reader, are presented with an important and honest point of view.


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Fire Kites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The fire kite has been Gaza's most effective weapon against Israel since they started using them on April 13, 2018.

The flying fire kite is a kite outfitted with a Molotov cocktail as its stabilizer tail.

The kites are launched into the air just like any regular kite would be. But then the kites burst into flames and turn into balls of fire. When they hit their targets, they land they ignite wheat fields on the Israeli side of the border.

The kite is an extremely low tech - and low cost, weapon. Hundreds of kites have been launched by Hamas and hundreds have landed in Israel and caught fire.

The damage that has been done is tragic. Over 1,000 acres of wheat has been burned. The fires are even more damaging now than when kites were first launched because the heat wave in the area causes the fields to be drier and more flammable.

Israel has now created a defense against Hamas launched Molotov cocktail kites.

Israel is using small multi-propeller drones with cameras and flying them right through the kites while the kites are on the Gaza side of the border. The fire kites fall on Hamas territory and catch fire there.

Over the past week Israel has downed over 120 of these flying fire bombs.

A low tech solution to a low tech weapon.

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Azerbaijan & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Azerbaijan leadership has just concluded a three day trip to Israel.

This trip was groundbreaking - for a number of reasons.

First is that Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation and does not yet have diplomatic relations with Israel.

Second is that Azerbaijan borders not only Iran but also Turkey and Russia.

Third is that Azerbaijan is one of Israel's largest suppliers of oil.

Finally, Israel sells all kinds of sophisticated weapons to Azerbaijan.

The Azerbaijani delegation to Israel was lead by their minister of taxation and he was joined by several deputy ministers.

A few weeks earlier Azerbaijan's most famous singer released a music video which included footage of the Azeri armed forces. Included were several shots of Israeli weapons.

A big new opportunity is opening up.

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Israel Says US Will Recognize Golan Heights
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's minister of intelligence Israel Katz suggested that the US might be interested in recognizing Israeli control over the Golan Heights.

This is part of the ripple effect begun when the US recognized Jerusalem as the national capital and dedicated the United States embassy there.

The Golan Heights was captured by Israel from Syria in 1967 - and then Israeli law was applied in the area. Israel views the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Before 1967 the Golan Heights was a strategic plateau from which the Syrians launched regular attacks on Israel. The attacks were so aggressive that it was nearly impossible for Israeli farmers in the valley below to plow their fields.

There is no way Israel will ever give up the Golan Heights.

Recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel would further cement another fact on the ground.

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Arab Scholar Says Jews Are Violent It's Their Genes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Arab culture is rife with conspiracy theories about Jews and the Holocaust. These canards are often spread by leaders and elites, even by professors.

That is what happened recently on Channel 2 Egyptian TV.

Professor Amr Allam, the head of the Hebrew department at Menoufia University said, while on air, that "the Israeli violence or aggressive spirit is embedded in the Jewish genes."

Allam was a guest on "The Blue Line" a weekly show which dwells on depicting Jews and Israel as evil. In this particular episode the topic was the reasons for the "abnormal" Israeli character.

Hazem Abu Saud, the host of the show, said that the Holocaust "was not directed specifically against the Jews, but against all the people suffering from diseases, and so on," and that the Jews "have exploited" and "continue to benefit" from what happened to them in the Holocaust.

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Qatar will Pay Hamas Salaries
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to supporting Hamas in Gaza, Qatar has been picking up where many other Arab countries have stopped.

Most of the Arabic world has abandoned Hamas but Qatar has been trying to funnel money and support. Qatar has promised to pay government salaries and inject monies to rebuild water and electricity infrastructure facilities in Gaza.

According to Arabic media sources, the Qatari Ambassador to Palestine, Mohammed al-Ammadi, is scheduled to visit Gaza soon to discuss the proposal.

"The Qatar initiative is moving beyond the humanitarian side this time and is related to fundamental improvements," the sources said.

"Qatar will support projects to improve electricity, water and other things that Ammadi may soon announce."

This is a very bad precedent.

Qatar seems not to care that by sidling up to Hamas they will further alienate themselves in foreign diplomacy.

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US Sanctions on Iran Are Working
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

New US sanctions against Iran are already having an impact.

On Thursday the largest international shipping container company in the world, A.P. Moller-Maersk, closed all operations in Iran. Maersk is so large that one cannot drive on a highway without seeing dozens of the containers rolling along on eighteen wheelers on the way to their destinations.

The day before that, on Wednesday, Total Energy shut their shop in Iran. Total Energy is one of the largest energy companies in the world, specifically for oil and gas. They employ over 100,000 people.

These are only two of the many companies that now feel the pressure of US sanctions to abandon Iran.

The sanctions mean that if companies continue doing business with Iran they will not be able to engage in any US economic banking activity.

That could destroy any company.


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50 of 61 Were Hamas Members
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Monday was a bloody day on the Gaza border. 61 Palestinians died.

On Wednesday senior Hamas official Salah Bardawil announced to Baladana TV, an official Hamas network, that 50 of the 61 dead were members of Hamas. In an interview Bardawil said that they were part of the Hamas ranks and that he was proud of their actions and their deaths. He said that they were fighting Israel and died as warriors and martyrs.

If that is correct - and there is no reason to dispute his claim, they were official members of a terror group, not innocents at the border.

That means that these 50 "protesters" were actually part of Hamas operations fighting against Israel. That is significant.

The remaining 11 may be connected to any number of other, anti-Israel, terror groups. Or they may have been simple rioters.

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Israel Delivers Aid to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday Israel sent supplies in to Gaza.

8 trucks filled with 53 tons of medical supplies crossed the border into Gaza.

And a line of gas trucks crossed from Israel into Gaza - but there was no one there to receive the gas, so the trucks turned around and returned to Israel taking with them the gas.

Hamas leadership, which controls Gaza, is actively working to destroy any attempts for aid to enter their domain - especially Israeli aid.

This assistance is from the Israeli army, the same group that the Gazans are fighting. The irony is staggering. The people you are attacking respond by sending you aid. Why? Because you were wounded striking out at them.

This is the Israeli way.

But did you see any international press showing the Israelis shipping humanitarian aid into Gaza the day after the world condemned them for being so brutal? The answer is: No, you didn’t.

That is the way of the world.

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Why More Palestinians Have Not Shown Up
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Some insight into the riots and attacks in Gaza:

During the most recent riots, Hamas organizers did everything they could to pack in the numbers and get as many people out as possible. They were hoping to be at least 100,000 strong.

In addition to busing rioters to the riot points, Hamas cancelled classes in all schools and all universities. They also announced a total shutdown of businesses.

There was no excuse not to have over a million people on the border between Gaza and Israel - but only 40,000 Palestinians showed up.

The reasons are simple:

Kids prefer to play computer games at home than to go out and riot.

Despite the inverted logic of Palestinian leadership, Palestinian parents and children are electing not to attend the organized riots and not to give up their lives for the cause.

Bottom line: The numbers don't lie!

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Hamas Wins on Campus
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Student Council elections at Palestinian Bir Zeit University had a not surprising result. Hamas won.

Hamas garnered 24 out of the 51 seats on the Student Council. The favorite party was the Martyr Party of Yassir Arafat which received 23 seats.

Hamas has claimed a tremendous victory - and they are correct to do so.

University elections are so important because they are a tool for predicting the future.

Winning at the university level empowers Hamas, it allows them to feel that they may very well be the future of the region.

It allows them to believe that they have unseated the establishment. This is not a good sign for the rest of us.

What is even more important than the results of the election at Bir Zeit University is that 75% of all students voted in this election.

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Israel Claims Syrian Strike
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

In a rare move, Israel accepted responsibility for air bombing Syria earlier this week.

The bombing was a response to the Iranian Al Quds Force launching of 20 missiles toward Israel. In the end, Israel struck and destroyed 50 sites, maybe even a few more.

Not all the targets were pre-arranged. According to Israeli Air Force sources, however, every site that launched a rocket was identified and destroyed. The targets included mobile operations like the S-200 rocket systems, command and control HQ's, radar and stocks of weapons.

As in the past, the explosions registered on the Richter Scale. This time they registered 2.6 in magnitude.

It is important to know that the elite Iranian force is embedded in Syrian camps.

Syrian fighters were trained in old Soviet-style strategy. In looking at the targets a specific Soviet-style pattern emerges. There are three lines and the first two lines have three clusters. Classic Russian defense pattern.

Of the 25 soldiers killed in the attack, most were Iranian. Israel has said that they were targeting equipment and not people - that makes sense.

This is now a game of cat and mouse. The game may still escalate.

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Iran Has a Plan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Make no mistake about it, Iran definitely has a plan in place as a response to the Trump move to pull the United States out of the Iranian nuclear deal.

Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Baqer Nobakht put it this way:

"The Management and Planning Organization of Iran have drawn up a plan that is proportional to the conditions of America's exit from the nuclear deal."

Piecing the plan together, it appears that Iran is making demands of the European nations. Iran is saying that, in order for them to stay in the agreement, they want more concessions. Iran will want more money and a shorter timetable to the sunset clauses. They will also permit more IAEA inspections.

It's all part of the game. And Europe may just agree to play by Iran's rules.

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Israel Strikes Iran Missiles Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

All educational trips to northern Israel were cancelled until further notice by order of the Education Ministry.

The reason is clear.

Iran has bolstered its missiles located in Syria and trained them on Israeli targets. And Israel once again struck a Syrian base with Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iranian missiles. According to reports 15 people on the base were killed -- 8 were Iranian.

Israel is preemptively striking the Iranian missiles while they are still on the ground.

Israel expects that Iran will use those missiles to strike them.

Israel will continue to seek out and destroy all Syrian centers for Iranian weapons because those weapons threaten innocent Israeli citizens.

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Palestinian Foundations Are Crumbling
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are up in arms at Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Bahrain and UAE participated in the first leg of an Italian bike race. That first leg took place in Israel - hence the reason for Palestinian ire.

Palestinians thought their boycott against Israel was ironclad - until it was smashed by these two Arab countries which have now officially competed in an international bike race hosted in part by the Jewish State.

The Palestinians are watching their foundations crumble. The bedrock upon which Palestinians stood in the Arab world was their position as victim. Now that the Arab boycott against Israel has been broken, their place in the Arab world is diminished, almost obliterated.

Now Israel and the Arab world are sharing interests.

This is very upsetting for the Palestinians.

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Oil Hits $75 -- Saudis Are Happy
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Strange things are happening in the oil markets - especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

For years Saudi Arabia has tried to push prices of oil down and tried to make certain that Iran was not able to benefit from sales of higher priced crude. But this week oil hit a high of $75/barrel and the Saudis announced that they want oil prices to rise higher - even to $80/barrel.

Oil today is already 50% higher than it was last year.

Meanwhile, Iran wants to sell as much oil as possible.

This change in attitude about the price of oil is part of a plan - a plan to hurt Iran.

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Bibi To Meet Putin
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will, once again, visit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Bibi will fly to Moscow where he will be an official guest at the Victory Day parade and celebrations.

Victory Day is held every year on May 9th. It celebrates the Russian (actually the Soviet) defeat of the Nazis. It is a huge celebration in Russia.

This will be the 8th face-to-face meeting between the Russian and Israeli leaders in two years. They have much to discuss.

Tensions between the two leaders surrounding Syria and Iran are certainly a high priority agenda item.

Putin's invitation to Netanyahu to join him at the Victory Day celebration and parade is a grand gesture signifying that the Russian leader wants to get relations between the two countries back on track.

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Jack Ma in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Jack Ma, the richest man in China and the founder and head of Alibaba, is in Israel receiving an honorary doctorate from Tel Aviv University.

During his presentation Jack Ma announced that he will continue to invest in Israel. He and his company have already invested in five companies in Israel. The results have been successful and Ma is very pleased. Now he will be investing in many more Israeli companies.

Ma said that Israel is one of only three places in the world where he would even consider investing.

That is a tremendous compliment - especially from Jack Ma.

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Israel Builds Alternative Airport
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Tourism in Israel is up.

This first quarter of 2018 was up 30% over the same period in 2017.

That is very impressive by any standard, especially so while Israel is under the threat of war from Iran and Hezbollah.

Recognizing that Ben Gurion Airport is a high profile target - and that there is a real threat of an attack on the airport from Hezbollah and from terrorists coming from closer to the airport in the West Bank - Israel is re-outfitting and expanding an air force base deep in the Negev desert.

The base is far away from a Hezbollah threat or a West Bank attack. But it is an alternative and, if needed, if there is a crisis, it will be there.

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Abbas Spouts Anti-Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Abbas launched into an anti-Semitic tirade during his two hour long speech at the Palestinian National Council meeting. This was the first meeting of the Council since December 1998.

Here is some of what Abbas said:

"From the 11th century until the Holocaust that took place in Germany, the Jews - who moved to Western and Eastern Europe - were subjected to a massacre every 10 to 15 years. But why did this happen?"

He continued: "The Jewish issue that was widespread in all European countries ... was not because of their religion, but rather their social behavior related to usury and banks."

Abbas often reverts to his anti-Semitic wheel-well to gain wall-to-wall support from his followers. The Arabic world is filled with conspiracy theories and people all too often believe these canards.

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What a Press Conference
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

WOW. That is the best response to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's press conference in which he unveiled, for all the world to see, an Iranian nuclear archive.

The European response is that the information is not new. In essence, Europe is saying that no proof will alter their mindset vis a vis the nuclear deal.

Iran denies all the allegations and claims that Netanyahu made it all up.

IRNA, Iran's official news agency, asserted that the Israeli prime minister is "famous for ridiculous shows."

Fars a semi official state news agency, believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard, dismissed Netanyahu's speech as a "propaganda show."

All Iranian media has joined together in issuing a public proclamation stating that Iran has never sought nuclear weapons and they are not seeking nuclear weapons now.

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Gazans Rush the Border
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel arrested two Palestinians who crossed from Gaza into Israel. They were carrying knives and wire cutters. Now they are being interrogated.

Also yesterday, Israel shot and killed two Palestinians who rushed the border and threw explosives at IDF soldiers. They were attempting to cross the border.

On Friday there were numerous attempts to strike through the fence between Israel and Gaza, even ripping down the fence in certain places.

When looking at the Palestinian demonstration, one can see their technique. They burn tires in such a way to as to create double plumes of smoke. That way, the terrorists can advance between the plumes in order to attack the fence.

There is a lot happening. There is a lot of activity that needs to be monitored.

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Oliver Stone in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The great Oliver Stone, director of Born on The 4th of July, Platoon and JFK, visited Iran. While there, he lashed out at the United States. He called the United States "outlaws." When speaking, his words were received with a loud ovation.

"We are outlaws, we're doing something that is outlawed internationally, we had no permission to invade Iraq from the UN, we did it, and we continue to do this."

Stone went on to say that "national security has trumped artistic freedom," claiming "you cannot make a film critical of the United States' foreign policy."

Artists produce messages all the time. Many artists, like Oliver Stone, feel that the US government obstructs them. At the same time, many people in the US feel that artists - like Stone, push their own agenda on America through their artistry, like movies.

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Iran Says No to New Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

As French leader Emmanuel Macron was lobbying US President Trump on fixing the Iranian deal, Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani was drawing his line in the sand.

Iran has made their stance on the deal public.

Iran likes the deal and will not accept any change in the nuke deal. Rouhani said that he has spoken to Macron and he: "told him explicitly that we will not add anything to the deal or remove anything from it, even one sentence. The nuclear deal is the nuclear deal."

In other words, it looks like the new deal is a no deal - even before we know what actually is in that new deal.

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German Leader: Don't Wear Kippa
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Violence against Jews of Germany has reached a highpoint. And it may get even worse.

The Berlin Kippa March is a proud show of solidarity, it is a rejection of anti-Semitism and violence against Jews.

But the Jews of Germany are afraid.

Joseph Schuster, head of Germany's Central Council of Jews, suggested that Jews stop wearing their kippot and instead start wearing baseball caps. He said that he was "against showing themselves openly with a kippa in a big-city setting in Germany, and wear a baseball cap or something else to cover their head instead."

At the same time Israeli Chief Rabbi Lau, who has said that his office was flooded by requests for help sent him by German Jewry, proclaimed that the Jews of Germany should continue wearing their kippot with pride.

This is a classic divide between Israel and the Diaspora. Nothing can bridge this chasm.

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A Good Assassination
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The assassination of Fadi Albatsh in Malaysia by two men driving motorcycles was a massive blow to Hamas.

Israel hit Hamas very hard by assassinating Albatsh.

Here is how the game card is calculated: Over the past few months Israel has successfully closed down Hamas' secret and all important weapon - "the tunnel."

Israel has figured out how to detect and shut down Hamas terror tunnels.

Hamas saw what was happening and started investing in an alternative weapon - the drone.

That is where Albatsh fit in. Albatsh was designing and training Hamas drone operators and designing Hamas drones.

Albatsh was a huge asset to Hamas, they were banking on him. That is exactly why it was so important for Israel to remove him. This assassination saved countless lives.

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Iran is Fiilled w Contradictions
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is a complicated place. In Iran, there are competing forces each pushing their own agenda - some for more openness and some for more tradition.

So when Iranian TV reported that Iran's President Hassan Rouhani chastised the famous morality police, that was a big deal.

Iran's morality police enforce the dress code and they have been very physical against violators. One such incident was caught on video. The video went viral and was broadcast on numerous TV outlets and on social media.

Last year the head of the police, the person responsible for the morality division, made it publicly clear that they would no longer arrest violators.

Rouhani said that it is impractical to promote virtue through violence "by grabbing people's collars." He said it will not work.

The interior minister has announced that the incident will be investigated.

This is one small glimpse into the internal struggles of Iran.

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Israeli Police Arrest Settler Youth
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli undercover police dressed as settlers arrested a youth from Yitzhar who was the subject of an arrest warrant.

The police entered in disguise so as not to cause a scene or endanger themselves.

Yitzhar is a hotbed of Jewish anti-Palestinian attacks. It is the HQ of "price tag" reprisals where Israelis strike out at Palestinians and their property in what they consider to be acts of reprisal.

The police have been cracking down on vigilantism and concentrating on arresting Jewish groups involved in illegal acts of violence.

The Od Yosef Chai Yeshivah in Yitzhar is run by Rabbi Ginsburg. He is the author of the book about Jewish terrorist Baruch Goldstein entitled "Baruch HaGever" which means "Baruch the Heroic Man." Rabbi Ginsburg has been at the heart of much of the vigilantism.

Several years ago Rabbi Ginsburg was charged with inciting violence, all charges against him were dropped when he retracted his calls to violence.

Israel is a state of law and justice. Citizens may not take the law into their own hands and the police must arrest those who do.

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Palestinians Consumed w Hate
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel celebrated her 70th anniversary of independence. But actually, the anniversary is today.

The anniversary is the 5th day of Iyar. When the 5th of Iyar falls on a Friday (as it did this year), the anniversary is officially celebrated on Thursday. This is Israeli law. It is a way to prevent a national desecration of the Sabbath.

So Thursday was the day before the anniversary. But yesterday was the day Palestinians mourned their Nakba, their catastrophe. What is interesting is that even the Palestinian catastrophe is artificial.

Palestinians chose to protest on a day that really is not the anniversary. In addition, Israel independence day is actually celebrated on the Hebrew date not the Gregorian date. That date should mean nothing to the Palestinians.

But the Palestinians are simply obsessed with their hatred. Listen to what Palestinian leader Ahmed Tibi, who is also a member of Israel's Knesset, said:

"What happened then was a Nakba - a human and national disaster on any scale ... Hundreds of thousands of Palestinian citizens live to this very day close to the villages they were uprooted from. What's more natural, humanitarian and just than returning them to their homes in their abandoned villages and restoring their stolen property?"

"We must recognize our national identity as Palestinians, with empathy to the suffering and loss we've experienced since 1948, which continues to this very day in different ways," he went on to say. "Empathy to another's suffering is an important aspect in narrowing gaps and bridging disagreements, including national conflicts. This is the time to recognize our Palestinian narrative."

Even the hatred was misplaced.
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70 Years is a Long Time
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

70 years ago today Israel declared its independence - and at that very same moment all her neighbors intensified their efforts to drive the Jews into the sea.

Our parents and grandparents could not imagine that Israel would thrive and live to celebrate a single year - and certainly not 70.
70 years later Israel is still struggling and fending off hostile neighbors.

In those 70 years Israel has transformed the Jewish people and the Jewish world. Then as it is now, a strong Israel in the aftermath of the Holocaust is a sign of stability and safety for all Jews, all around the world.

The world is a better place better place because Israel exists.
Israel has changed and touched almost every field and discipline. Art, music, literature, food, wine, economics, chemistry, biotech, computers and so much more.

That is powerful. That is something we can all hold on to.
Happy Birthday Israel. Yom HaAtzmaut Sameach.

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Gazans Fly Terror Kites
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


Palestinians in Gaza have begun using an old weapon to terrorize Israel.

They are moving close to the border fence and flying kites - kites that have been lit aflame.

The wind often blows from east to west and when that happens, the kites quickly fly into Israel where they fall on the fields. The fields catch fire and the crops burn.

This is a particularly nefarious form of terror.

Palestinian terrorists are burning the fields of the very land they claim to love and say they will die for.

The terrorists believe that they are untraceable because they lift the kites high up in the air and light them far away from IDF view. They are mistaken.

These aren't ordinary store bought kites. Each kite is homemade and very large. Each kite needs to be taken out and lifted. It several takes people to launch each kite.

Israel is not yet preempting the kites. They will soon. For now, they are sending fighters to douse the flames.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

People have been talking about the US strike against Syrian gas and chemical weapons.

Most have forgotten that, only days earlier, Israel bombed a Syrian base and killed 7 Iranians - all of them the creme de la creme of Iran's drone operators. Included among them was Colonel Mehdi Dehghan, the head of the Iranian clone unit.

Iran has not forgotten.

The Iranians have been announcing that they will exact revenge on Israel for the strike that killed 7 of their best men.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Bassam Ghassemi has said: "Tel Aviv will be punished for its aggressive action." He added: "The occupying Zionist regime will, sooner or later, receive an appropriate response to its actions."

The response from Iran will come according to their timetable.

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Israel Discovers aTunnel & Shows Secret Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel discovered another terror tunnel this weekend. It was the longest and the widest and most modern tunnel yet discovered.

This newly discovered tunnel emptied out just on the Israel side of the fence - literally right next to a location of the weekly protests held on the Gaza border.

When Israel announced that they uncovered and destroyed the tunnel they also unveiled that their new secret weapon - a multi dimensional unit of engineers, mathematicians, computer scientists, geologists and military experts.

Their faces were blurred but we saw them at work in a 54 second clip.

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US Strike on Syrian Gas & Chemicals
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the US, Great Britain and France have bombed Syrian chemical and gas weapons factories, Assad can breathe a sigh of relief. He was bracing for the inevitable, and now it's over.

The multinational raid on Syria was a gesture - nothing more.

As they promised, the US sent a message. But other than that, they probably did nothing more, certainly not prevent another gas or chemical attack.

Nothing changed on the ground. No difference was created by US action.

Hezbollah, Syria and Russia have not been touched or impacted in any way.

Israel is no safer and neither is the Middle East.

Most important, neither are the innocent people of Syria.

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No Direct Conflict w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Is a conflict between Iran and Israel inevitable at this stage?

No - it is not.

There is certainly the possibility of conflict, but it is doubtful that the conflict will be direct. Iran will probably permit - or perhaps order - Hezbollah, its proxy, to strike Israel.

As of last count Hezbollah had amassed 130,000 rockets and missiles, a large percentage of which can hit deep into Israel.

Israel knows that Iran and Hezbollah are operating on a hair trigger.

Israel knows that if Hezbollah launches an attack it will inflict harm on Israel. Israel also knows that she needs to protect herself. And that means targeting sites that warehouse weapons that can be used against Israel and their command and control systems.

In the end, rather than full blown conflict, there will probably be a skirmish between Israel and Hezbollah.

If necessary, Israel will hit Hezbollah hard enough to knock them out of the game for a period of time. Israel will want to do this from the air. The IDF does not want to commit forces on the ground.

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Bibi & Putin Talk
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to tell him that Israel should not act in Syria. Do not, he said, destabilize Syria.

Netanyahu reiterated that Israel could not tolerate an Iranian base in Syria.

Israel's Sunday airstrike against T-4 that killed 14 people including 7 Iranian military advisers should not be an excuse for Iran to attack Israel.

Israeli advisers are in unanimous agreement that if Iran acts in any way against Israel they will topple Assad and destroy all Iranians positions in Syria.

Putin got the message loud and clear that Israel is not playing a game with Iran.

So whatever game Russia is playing with the US, Israel is engaged in a battle to keep Iranian military bases as far from its borders as possible.

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Israel Not Interetsed in Conflict w Russia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is not interested in directly engaging in conflict with Russia - especially with Russian military soldiers and advisors on the ground in Syria.

Israel wants to reduce the tension that already exists - and is rapidly increasing, between Israel and the Russia.

Israel also does not want a direct conflict with Iran - but that conflict may be inevitable

Israel has a dilemma - the need to keep their country and citizens safe may involve strikes against Syria and Iran and Russians may be in the area.

There is little doubt that this conflict is potentially explosive and can spiral completely out of control.

Here's a warning: Russia and certainly Iran may be baiting Israel to act in order to accelerate the conflict.

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Israel Tells Russia & Iran Beware
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

There is little doubt that Israel was behind the attack on the T-4 military base in Syria. Four Iranian military advisers, including an expert drone operator, were killed during the attack which also took out at least one of their drones.

Israel struck the base from Lebanese airspace.

The Russians witnessed the attack and were quick to point the finger at and condemn Israel.

There could have also been Russian advisers in T-4 and Russia would have wanted to warn their people - but this time Israel did not give them advance notice of their planned attack.

The airstrike was a warning. Israel is sending a message to Russia and Iran that they are not shying away from using force. Israel is saying that despite the international attention, they are not afraid to strike and engage in actions against Russian and Iranian troops.

That is an important statement.

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England Opens Naval Base in Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday England's Prince Andrew was in Bahrain and he, together with the Crown Prince of Bahrain, officially opened a permanent British naval base.

This is a very large step and the culmination of a series of diplomatic efforts dating back to 2014.

Bahrain is a critical location for the West.

Bahrain is host to the US 5th Fleet. It is perfectly pitched to guard the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water through which 1/3 of the world's oil travels every single day.

Bahrain has close ties with Saudi Arabia and the US and Great Britain.

Most important, Bahrain is in place to check Iran. 85% of Bahrainians are Shiite Muslims and obviously close to Iran. The ruling family is a branch of the Saud family.

Bahrain wants to make certain that Iran's power and influence is checked in order to maintain order on their island.

The British navy will use this new base to help secure the region and keep it stable and friendly to Western interests.

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Saudi To Prosecute Princes for Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudi public prosecutor has announced that he is investigating and will be charging several of the Saudi princes who were arrested last year.

The Saudi deputy attorney general was quoted in the pan-Arab newspaper Al Sharq Al Awsat which is published in England.

According to the paper Saud al Hamad, the deputy attorney general, will be charging the princes for involvement in money laundering and terror sponsorship.

This is the move we have been waiting for.

This is not a power play, it is a move wresting people with enormous power and influence who consider themselves above the law away from committing illegal and immoral acts like terror.

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Gaza Plans Friday Protests
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Beginning Friday, Palestinians are planning a second week of protests at the Gaza-Israel border.

Last Friday Palestinians gathered at several points along the border. The total numbers were in question. Palestinians said 100,000 protesters turned out, Israel said the numbers were closer to 15,000. Looking at YouTube videos there were probably 30,000 protesters at the peak of the protest.

This Friday the Palestinians have called for 12,000 tires to be brought to the sites and set aflame. They also asked Palestinians participants to come with large mirrors.

The purpose of both these maneuvers is to make it harder for Israeli snipers to identify targets. Palestinians will also position their own snipers to shoot Israeli snipers.

The mirrors will reflect the sun and the tires will create a cloud of black smoke.

The danger of burning so many tires is devastating to the environment and to all the people around. The heat generated from the fire will be excessive.

According to weather predictions, the wind will blow west which means the smoke will blow back on the Palestinians and, in the end, not screen the protesters.

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Iran Says US & Israel Interfere in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani convened a press conference as he boarded his plane at Mahrabab airport in Tehran on Tuesday. Rouhani was en route to Ankara, Turkey to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

According to Rouhani, the problems of Syria are caused by Israel and the United States - they are interfering and that they do not respect Syria.

"There's interference from Zionist forces in Syria which has increased problems. They don't respect Syrian national sovereignty. They bomb areas in Syria. They support terrorists. These are all issues which have increased Syria's problems."

"The Americans are against the Syrian government establishing its authority throughout the whole country and are even thinking of a breakup (of the country)."

Two important notes: First, Rouhani will never refer to Israel by name, he refers to them only as the Zionists. Second, we must wonder why it is that the US and Israel are interfering in Syria and not Russia and Iran.

It's all about perspective. Iran and Russia see their actions as correct because that's what supports their point of view.

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Saudi Crown Prince Recognized Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed ibn Salman sat down for an extensive interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, editor and chief of the Atlantic. The most important points in their discussion were Saudi recognition of Israel's right to exist in peace in her own land and the need for a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.

The Crown Prince said: "I believe that each people, anywhere, has a right to live in their peaceful nation. I believe the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to have their own land." ... "But we have to have a peace agreement to assure the stability for everyone and to have normal relations."

He also described his reservations: "We have religious concerns about the fate of the holy mosque in Jerusalem and about the rights of the Palestinian people. This is what we have. We don't have any objection against any other people."

And he explained that there were great mutual benefits to be had in bringing Israel into the region's sphere of economic engagement: "Israel is a big economy compared to their size and it's a growing economy, and of course there are a lot of interests we share with Israel and if there is peace, there would be a lot of interest between Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and countries like Egypt and Jordan."


About anti-Semitism the Crown Prince said: "Our country doesn't have a problem with Jews. Our Prophet Muhammad married a Jewish woman. Not just a friend—he married her." ... "Our prophet, his neighbors were Jewish. You will find a lot of Jews in Saudi Arabia coming from America, coming from Europe. There are no problems between Christian and Muslims and Jews. We have problems like you would find anywhere in the world, among some people. But the normal sort of problems."

Speaking about Iran the Crown Prince paralleled the Iranian Grand Ayatollah to Hitler, calling him worse than Hitler: "I believe the Iranian supreme leader makes Hitler look good. Hitler didn't do what the supreme leader is trying to do. Hitler tried to conquer Europe. ... The supreme leader is trying to conquer the world."

These on the record comments represent a watershed.
Now we watch and see what comes next.

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Putin T0 Visit Turkey & Meet Iran PRres
By Micah Halpern

Monday April, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday and Wednesday Russia's President Vladimir Putin will visit Turkey.

Putin will have talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and will participate in the opening of the first stage celebrating the completion of the first unit of the Russian built nuclear energy station in Turkey.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani will also visit Turkey. Putin and Rouhani will meet face-to-face and the three leaders will have quality time together.

The most critical issue on Turkey's agenda will be a discussion about the Kurds - especially US support of the Kurds.

Iran deep concern about the May deadline of the infamous "nuke deal" is also on the agenda.

Russia is Iran's advocate. The voices of Iran and Turkey are magnified exponentially because Russia is on the ground and in direct head-to-head competition with the US in the region.

Of course, Israel and the Palestinians will also come up. On that subject, Russia will be silent.

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Drought in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


Iran is suffering a drought that is endangering the central area around the city of Isfahan.

Analysts say that conditions have worsened, in part, due to incompetence and mismanagement on the part of government. And Iranians are rising up in protest.

These protests have sprung up over the past month. Some of the protests have been squashed by authorities.

One of the chants shouted out during protests is "Death to the farmers - long live the oppressors." This is obviously a humorous critique of the situation. A drought can destroy the heart and soul of a region and impact a country on a national scale.

Water in the Middle East, even more so than in many other places in the world, needs to be properly managed so that people and populations can both earn a living and feed the masses without the need to import basic food needs.

The drought is not getting worse, it is only getting worse.

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Abbas Now to Openly Pay Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 29, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


The Palestinian Authority is once again lashing out hoping to hurt the United States. But once again, in the end, the only party to be hurt - will be the Palestinian Authority. Their actions just reinforce the momentum in US halls of power that the Palestinians are not helping themselves.

For years the US has been frustrated that the PA continues to pay terrorists who are in Israeli prisons and to the families of terrorists killed while perpetrating murderous acts against Israelis. For four years the PA indirectly paid their terrorists through the Palestinian Ministry of Prison of Affairs, a ministry which deals only and exclusively with prisoners in Israeli jails and terrorists killed while perpetrating terror.

Now Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his government have decided to fund the terrorists and their families directly. The PA officially announced that they are no longer hiding their sponsorship of terrorists.

Why - and why now? Because last week the US Congress passed the Taylor Force Act which prohibits the United States from sending funds to the Palestinian Authority if they pay/ reward terrorists. US aid was being used to sponsor terror against Israelis and even against Americans like Taylor Force who was murdered last year. Force was a decorated US veteran on a graduate school study trip to Israel and was stabbed and murdered in a terror attack in the city of Jaffa.

The numbers and the sums are numbing. According to Palestinian budget figures, 550 million NIS is budgeted annually for stipends to Palestinians in Israeli prisons and another 687 million NIS for the families of terrorists. That equals 1.2 billion NIS to terrorists and families.

The entire health budget of the Palestinian Authority is 1.8 billion NIS.

The total PA budget is 15.5 billion NIS. The budget for terrorists and their families (not terrorism) is about 10% of the entire Palestinian budget and just a tiny bit smaller than the health budget for the entire PA.

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Problems w the US Embassy Move
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The US is moving it's embassy to Jerusalem - that's a foregone conclusion, but even a healthy desire to make the change requires Herculean strength and great skill.

A consulate just can't become an embassy by tacking up a sign. US security procedures require a series of upgrades.

Before a US embassy compound can open, it requires a wall around the compound that is at least 8 feet high. It requires access roads with proper width and distance from the main gate. It requires anti truck ramming defense and a gate which will withstand a frontal assault. And finally the embassy requires alternative emergency exits including underground tunnels.

That all takes time to build.

In Israel in order to build any building with those requirements permits must be issued by the National Planning and Building Committee

That takes time. The Committee requires plans and the plans require approval.

Only 6 times in its history has the Committer fastracked approval. Each time the exception was predicated on saving a life or a situation of national crisis and importance.

Is moving the US embassy to Jerusalem an emergency? It is if you want it opened in time for the 70th anniversary of Israel's independence.

The Committee voted in favor of the exception.

A mini miracle.

There is still one other obstacle to be overcome. The former and now shuttered Diplomat Hotel sits within the expanded US compound. In the 1990's the hotel was converted into a facility to house new immigrants.

To this day some 450 new immigrants inhabit the facility. They must all relocated. If that happens before the 70th anniversary which will be celebrated on the 5th of Iyar, it will be another miracle.

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German FM Tells PA- Change Directions
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Heiko Mass is the new foreign minister of Germany.

Mass is on his first official trip to the Middle East in his new role. He was particularly profound when he spoke to Palestinian leadership in Ramallah.

Mass told the Palestinians not to tear down bridges.

He was referring to the position that Palestinian leadership has taken against the United States ever since President Trump announced that he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and would soon relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Mass was trying to help move the Palestinians back onto a path of acceptance. It is a commendable move but it is also an uphill battle.

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3 Iron Dome Alerts in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 26. 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Iron Dome was activated yesterday.

The Code Red alarm sounded in three different regions in Israel: Sderot, Hof Ashkelon, Shaar Hanegev.

The Iron Dome detected projectiles incoming to all three regions and responded by launching missiles to intercept them.

Everything worked perfectly - except that the incoming rockets were not rockets, they were bullets from gunfire.

The sensors on the Iron Dome are very sensitive. In fact, too sensitive. The sensors caused the Iron Dome to launch. This is a serious flaw in the Iron Dome.

Now Hamas knows that they can send small projectiles and draw Iron Dome fire. After that, they can launch real rockets at Israeli targets.

This massive flaw has been very publicly uncovered.

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IDF Warns Hamas & Lebanon About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The take of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate is always worth hearing. Major General Herzi Halevi offered several observations today.

The Israeli general warned Hamas and Lebanon that Iran was not a friend of theirs and would only hurt them.

Halevi said "Iran has launched a Shiite arrow that has split the region asunder. Hamas must understand running to (Iran) will only worsen its condition."

He said that Hezbollah is "continuing to grow in strength under Iran's tutelage." And added "Israel has no belligerent intentions towards Lebanon, the gaps between us are small and can be bridged." And that: "Lebanon must consider its economy, one of the largest in the region, and not Iran and Hezbollah's interests."

These were words of advice and warning for Hamas and Lebanon will probably not be heeded.

The inverse message in Halevi's comments is essential for us to hear.
Iran is making serious inroads into Hamas in Gaza and promising them essential funds. And, in Lebanon, Iran is expanding beyond Hezbollah and luring Lebanese leadership with promises of aid.

None of this bodes well for the region.

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UAE Flies with Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is changing - just look around and see the signs of transformation.

This week the air forces of Israel, the United States, Italy, the UK, Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates were all hosted by Greece.

During the course of the week the various air forces flew together and carried out joint exercises. The most significant of all joint exercises was when the United Arab Emirates flew together with Israel.

The UAE and Israel do not have diplomatic relations, and yet, this week, high above the Mediterranean two F-16's - one flown by an Israeli and the other by a pilot from the UAE, flew in tandem to accomplish a goal at mach speed.

A perfect example of how the Middle East is changing- for the better.

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ISIS Takes Part of Damascus
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Damascus area of Al Qadam has been taken over by ISIS.

The battle for Al Qadam lasted over 24 hours - and during that time at least 36 Syrian soldiers were killed. Do not misunderstand, do not think that ISIS is taking all of Syria back. But this area is back in the hands of ISIS.

ISIS has lost it momentum and has lost most of Syria, but Syria is still a tinder box that can explode at any moment.

Even the area around Damascus and its suburbs, which is one of the bastions of Assad's power, can be wrestled away by ISIS.

In the eyes of ISIS, as long as one fighter is still fighting they are still a threat.

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Russia Tables Talks On Human Rights in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians tabled a discussion on human rights abuses in Syria at the United Nations Security Council.

They asserted that human rights was not on the agenda and therefore should not be discussed. "We do not see any justification for this meeting since human rights is not a subject on the agenda of the Security Council," said Gennady Kuzmin, Russia's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations.

This is a typical Russian move.

Everyone knows about the rampant human rights abuses in Syria. Tabling a discussion on the obvious was a continuation of Russia's role in Syria. The Russians have been witness and even party to some of the abuses.

This is something they certainly do not want to discuss at the Security Council.

Eventually the subject will be placed on the agenda and it will be discussed.

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Abbas Curses the US Ambassador
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Ambassador to Israel David Freidman tweeted that the murder of 3 young Israelis was tragic and that the PA has been silent and has not even denounced the acts of terror.

That tweet led to a response from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in which he called the US Ambassador "a son of a dog - a settler - and father of settlers." He also attacked the US and mentioned the decision to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem.

During that same speech Abbas called out Hamas for a failed assassination attempt against his prime minister. Hamas, which tried to murder Abbas' #2 was not called any of the awful things thrown at Friedman. Instead, Hamas was asked to keep Abbas in the loop in the investigation.

This rant by Abbas is typical of him. He is a very emotional person.

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Warsaw March Against Anti Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday 1000 people marched in Warsaw to protest the new rise of Anti-semitism in Poland.

Protest marches also took place in other cities throughout Poland. The marchers shouted "Freedom Equality, Tolerance."

This is the first public response, in Poland, to the wave of public intolerance that has become so commonplace.

The Jewish community in Poland is extremely worried about the rise of freely expressed anti-Semitism expressed on TV, radio, the internet and in public life.

Hopefully, these marches will be a wake-up call people up and force anti-Semitism in Poland back into the bottle.

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Iran is Making Oil Deals
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just signed a huge foreign deal.

Dana Energy, the Iranian state oil company, signed a ten year, $740 billion deal, to collectively produce oil from two oil fields near the Iraqi border.

Their agreement is with the Russian state owned oil company Zarubezhneft. Together, both fields will pump 84,000 barrels of oil a day.

Last year China and France's oil company SA came to agreement with Iran. That agreement is worth $5 billion dollars to develop an offshore natural gas field.

Iran is running to expand their role in the world of energy. They are competing big and they are scoring big.

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US Likes Israel in Record Numbers
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Gallop published a new poll on their website that turned conventional wisdom on its head.

The Gallop poll showed that Americans support Israel more - or at least as well, as they have ever supported her for decades, ever since Gallop first polled the question.

64% of Americans have a positive feeling towards Israel. Only 19% feel positively towards the Palestinians.

Americans feel 45% more favorably toward Israel than toward the Palestinians.

This result tied with the 1991 gallop poll which was taken during the 1st Gulf War and the poll taken in 2013 when Barack Obama was the president of the United States.

Contrary to what the media tells us, Israel is well liked and respected by Americans.

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Russia Threatens US in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Russia and the United States are spiking in the Syria.

Russia's chief of staff and the head of the US joint chiefs of staff spoke yesterday about the tensions.

The Russians have held press conferences and have said that they have information that the US is going to strike Assad fortifications in Damascus. Russia said that they will retaliate if Russians were hurt in the strike. Russia also said that the US will create a pretext for the attack.

The US has been speaking about Syria's use of non-conventional weapons against civilians. They have said that they will respond if that proves true.

Russia is suggesting that the US will stage a gas incident in order to attack.

Words are ugly, but it is potential action that could destabilize the entire region.

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Saudi Prince to Visit White House March 3/20
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The White House announced that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office on March 20, 2018.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that that the crown prince and the president will discuss economics and security.

They will also discuss ISIS and Islamic extremism.

And Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.

They will focus on Qatar.

And they will spend time on the Palestinians.

The most important subject they talk about will be nuclear technology.

The Saudis want nuclear technology in order to have parity with the Iranians. And so the United States needs to figure out how to empower the Saudis without having the Middle East spiral into a nuclear arms race.

Easier said than done.

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Iranian Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been hacking. Iranians have improved their hacking skills and are successfully spying and disrupting computers all over the world.

An Iranian hacker group called Chafer has attacked Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Chafer has disrupted telecommunication systems and networks.

Another Iranian hacker group, this one named Advanced Persistent Threat APT -33, is very active. APT -33 has been attacking the United States, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

And these are just a few of the Iranian hacks.

Suffice it to say that Iran's interest in hacking systems is to do more than merely disrupt and make life uncomfortable. The Iranians want access, they want to control the hacked systems. They want the information in the systems and they want to bring their victims to their knees.

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Palestinian Council To Meet- 1st Time in 10 Yrs
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On April 30th the 700 strong Palestinian National Council will meet in Ramallah.

The PNC, the most important legislative body in the Palestinian government, has not met in over ten years.

The ostensible reason for this meeting is to fill those positions on the Palestinian Executive Committee that have been vacated because of deaths, illnesses, old age or a simple inability to function and carry on with the duties of the positions.

But there is another reason for the meeting.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' health is not as stable as it was. Abbas is 82 years old and no successor has been tapped, no one is even on the horizon.

This PNC meeting is an opportunity to see who might emerge as potential leader. Should several potential leaders emerge, there might even be an election to choose candidates. There might even be a primary and then a run off. All that is doubtful, but who know what might happen.

The important part is that the Palestinian National Council is meeting.

It's a first step, an important step.

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Indonesian University Bans Burqa
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic University in Indonesia has outlawed wearing a full veil burqa.

Indonesia is the most populated Muslim country in the world. The State Islamic University in Yogyakarta City on Java Island instituted a policy forbidding women from covering their entire faces.

The purpose of the policy is to curb radical Islamic activity on campus.

There has been some blow back claiming that this prohibition is a violation of freedom of speech. The irony cannot be lost - those demanding freedom of speech would curtail the speech of anyone who disagrees with them.

This university is trying to "put forth the modern face of Islam." What they are really trying to do, in other words, is to curtail extremism.

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Iran Responds to Bibi in a Tweet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at Iran. And Iran responded to Netanyahu.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that Iran is actually an honest player seeking justice and advocating for Palestinian victims of Israeli occupation and oppression.

It all always comes down to the Israeli occupation.

Zarif tweeted: "Despite Netanyahu's claims, the fact is that illegal occupation lies at the heart of most of the calamities in our region."

He continued: "Historically, occupying another's land has never been sustainable. This occupation, too - and the apartheid system that perpetuates it- will not last long."

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Nuclear Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

One of the dangers with Iranian nuclear development is the ripple effect. There is regional competition in the Middle East, so if Iran has nukes, Saudi Arabia needs them. The pressure to get nukes should not be underestimated.

It's like keeping up with the Jones', Middle East style.

As a result of the 2015 nuke deal with Iran, the international community is on their way to full nuclear capability. Saudis will not accept a situation where the Shiites, i.e. Iran, have weapon superiority over them.

Should the United States and Israel side with the Saudis or try to preserve fewer nukes in the Middle East?

It's a conundrum - more nukes or parity between Sunnis and Shiites.

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Pole Sue Paper over Holocaust Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The New Polish Law about the Holocaust has begun to make an impact. A Polish group called the Polish League Against Defamation is suing an Argentinian newspaper that Poland claims violated the new law by suggesting that Poland was complicit in the Holocaust.

The claim is that the paper Pagina 12, an Argentinian daily, misrepresented Poland in December 2017. The paper published a picture of "Doomed Soldiers" also called "Cursed Soldiers" or "Damned Soldiers" who fought against the communists during WWII. Pagina 12 ran their picture along with an article about a 1941 massacre of the Jews of Jedwabne during which local Poles murdered 340 Jews. The Germans were complicit in the murder.

The picture is clearly a mistake. The Polish group is hoping to slap down any mistakes that are made and to set an example for others.

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Bibi Not in Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the US for 5 days. A large part of his agenda for this visit will be addressing the AIPAC Policy Conference and meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Many people are worried about the latest investigation into Bibi over yet another legal issue. This time investigators are looking into bribery in exchange for better press coverage plus favors to streamline the bureaucratic web for Bezek in the communications ministry. It also involves efforts to drop the case against Netanyahu's wife Sara in exchange for promises to make the judge the attorney general.

This is not a crisis. These will amount to nothing against Bibi.

The real danger is the budget.

The ultra religious parties want a change in the bill regarding compulsory draft into the IDF. They want students in their yeshivot to have the same legal and economic status as soldiers in the army, without participation in the military. If that can be accomplished, yeshiva students would be permitted to legally work and get national insurance as they study. There would be no difference between a yeshivah student and a soldier.

The Shas party and the United Torah Judaism party have both said they will bolt from the coalition and not vote for the upcoming budget unless the current draft bill is amended.

That is a real crisis.


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Russia's New Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Putin gave his State of the Union Address yesterday. The speech was filled with pride and power.

It is the eve of an election campaign for Putin. He will most certainly win another 6 year term.

During his speech Putin claimed that despite the US, Russia is winning the arms race.

"I want to tell all those who have fueled the arms race over the last 15 years, sought to win unilateral advantages over Russia, introduced unlawful sanctions aimed to contain our country's development: all what you wanted to impede with your policies have already happened" ... "You have failed to contain Russia."

Putin also announced that Russia now has a nuclear powered underwater drone and a hypersonic missile. This hypersonic nuclear powered missile can travel Mach 5 which is five times the speed of sound. It has practically unlimited range.

"No one in the world has anything like that," he said. "It may appear someday, but by that time we will develop something new."

Sounding much like a cartoon character he said: "No one has listened to us." ..."You listen to us now."

Finally, Putin asserted that Russian weapons will preserve world peace when he said: "We aren't threatening anyone, we aren't going to attack anyone, we aren't going to take anything from anyone," ... "The growing Russian military might will guarantee global peace."


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US Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

A London paper, Asharq Al-Awsat, described in detail the US peace plan to resolve the Palestinian Israeli conflict.

The paper cites unnamed French diplomats as its source.

The details are no surprise. Arab leaders that have been looped in seem to not be too negative. That is a huge vote of support.

The main points published suggest:
East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.
No right of return for Palestinian families.
Financial Compensation for families. $40 billion dollars in building infrastructure.
Limited sovereignty which includes expanded governing responsibility in areas A and B.
The Jordan valley will remain under Israeli control and the large settlement blocks will remain in place. The the smaller settlements will be relocated into the larger settlement blocs.
Israel to control the borders. Egypt will control the Gaza border which abuts their border.

Interestingly, it was French diplomats that leaked the U.S. plan to a London-based popular Arab paper. Why not a US or Palestinian diplomat? Why an Arab paper and not the New York Times or the Washington Post? In Arabic Asharq Al-Awsat means "The Middle East." It is owned by a private company - but it is actually owned by the Saudi Royal Family. The Saudi family has a stake in this deal. This U.S. deal is very similar to the Saudi Peace Plan.

One must note that there is no way that a peace plan will be implemented without Saudi approval and Saudi support.

Understanding the credibility and viability of the peace plan will depend on answering the above questions.

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Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian campaign for presidency officially opened this week, the vote will take place from March 26th to 28th.

The incumbent Abdel Fattah al Sisi is the overwhelming favorite. Al Sisi came to power in 2013 when, as head of the army, he ousted the first ever duly elected president of Egypt - Mohammed Morsi, who was from the Muslim Brotherhood. A year later elections cemented al Sisi's position.

Now it is time for new elections. All the opposition candidates have either withdrawn or been arrested, except for one candidate and he is a relative unknown who backed al Sisi in the previous vote. One of the arrested candidates was the head of the army who announced his candidacy while still officially in the army - a clear violation of the law but ironic at the same time.

Sisi has been criticized for being too harsh on terror and on his political enemies. He has hit back hard against the press and there have been warnings and even arrests about "false news" that maligns Egypt. The chief prosecutor has called for vigilance in the media and charged his team to scour the media against "forces of evil" trying to influence the vote.

All members of government have been warned against trying to influence the election in any way.


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Oil Hits 3 Week High B/C of Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 27, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Oil hit a three week high - settling at about $64 a barrel.

The Saudis are most pleased with this rise in oil prices. But they needed to increase the price of oil. So to counter the huge influx of US oil into the market, especially from US shale which has effectively decreased the price of oil over the past few months, the Saudis severely limited production.

The Saudis have restricted their output. They have been producing less oil daily than even the official cap which is placed on them by OPEC. Their objective was to artificially decrease the supply and increase the demand.

Most oil experts are saying that oil will remain between $55 and $75 per barrel over the next 6 months. There is no chance of either a drop or increase in price unless supply changes.

The US is flooding the market with as much oil as possible to drive the price of oil down. Who knows what the Saudis have in mind.

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Egypt Trying to Unite Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian leadership is in Gaza trying to convince the Palestinians from Gaza to unite with the Palestinians from the West Bank.

Two intelligence leaders from Egypt, along with a senior diplomat, went to Gaza to urge a Palestinian reconciliation. They were joined by several Fatah ministers from Abbas’ ruling cabinet.

As this is happening, a group of Hamas leaders is in Cairo. They have been there for several weeks and are part of a group that Egypt is trying to influence in the same way.

Egypt thinks that bringing Palestinians together will make for a more secure region. They may be correct. But it is highly unlikely that any agreement will last - there have already been several agreements and all have shattered apart. Never the less, Egypt thinks that they can control Hamas and keep the border with Israel quiet.

The downside of any agreement is that it will be almost impossible to rein in Hamas and enforce any commitments made with Fatah and Egypt.

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Arab Leaders To Visit White House
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will visit the White House and meet, face-to-face, with US President Donald Trump in March and April.

There is no doubt about the agenda for these meetings. The White House wants to try to smooth over tensions between Sunni states and bring some calm back to the region. Qatar has been rocking the boat and aligning with Iran and that has caused a serious backlash in relations.

The White House also wants to enlist these leaders' assistance in hammering out a Middle East peace plan with the Palestinians. The strategy is part of a larger plan to widen the influence and the participation of nations involved in the peace effort and leverage pressure on Palestinian leadership to accept a deal.

More important than the leverage is the looping in of major Sunni states and their leaders. This will lend credibility to an agreement and obviate any direct responsibility for a peace plan, a significant factor hindering progress, that so frightens Palestinian leaders like Abbas.

If the White House can bring everyone together, an agreement can be cobbled out, supported and underwritten by the major Sunni states. Ideally, that plan will make a deal with Israel easier for the Palestinians to swallow - and ultimately sign.

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Abbas Hospitalized in Baltimore
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday and Wednesday websites were chattering away about Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' health. Rumors spread about his weak heart. Some concluded that a health crisis was related to decades of heavy smoking.

The Palestinians were mum - but their president did not look good or sound healthy when he spoke at the United Nations.

The most convincing evidence that something was wrong with Abbas was that, since his presentation to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, there was no media coverage of him. After such an important event, Mahmoud Abbas fell off the radar.

Suddenly, he was spotted in Baltimore at Johns Hopkins University Hospital -- but according to his travel schedule, Abbas was supposed to be in South America.

Official Abbas spokesmen said that the Palestinian president was in the hospital for routine checks.

Finally, Abbas spoke to Wafa, the official Palestinian media outlet, and said, "Our presence here was a suitable chance for us to make some medical checks." "We actually made those checks and we are out now and, thank God, all results are positive and are assuring. This is God's blessing on us."

Abbas is 82 years old. He has had cardiac catheterization to unblock clogged arteries. Abbas has a worrisome health history - and no one is speaking about succession. No one is discussing the democratic process of transition in Palestine.

This is a crisis waiting to happen.

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Iran in Syria to Attack Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The New York Times published a report which has been rewritten - with interesting additions, in the Israeli press.

The article in the NYT explained that Iran is not simply advising in Syria, but rather Iran is entrenched in permanent bases in Syria. One can count 28 fixed Iranian camps running north to South in Syria. There are also a handful of temporary Iranian bases that have been established.

These bases are proof of Iran's real agenda in Syria.

Iran is not in Syria as advisers for the short term to help fight ISIS and anti-Assad rebels.

Iran is getting into position to best strike Israel and to best help others strike Israel.


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Abbas is Too Weak
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday and called for an International Conference to solve the issue of Palestinian Statehood. Abbas wants to sideline the US and place power into the hands of more Palestinian friendly allies.

A conference is a good idea for the Palestinians.

Also on Tuesday, Heather Nauert, US State Department spokeswoman, gave a hint of what might be part of the US peace plan for the Palestinians. She said that other regional countries might be called upon to take a role in the peace process.

"If at some point we believe that other countries could be helpful to the peace process, we would certainly be willing to bring them in." ... "Is the time right for that right now? I'm not sure we've decided that, but that is certainly something that could happen in the future."

For a significant time smart analysts have said that one of the best ways to obviate Abbas' weak position would be to have regional countries support or accept the peace process so it does not appear as if Abbas is abandoning the cause by creating a deal with Israel.

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Israel Signs Deal to Sell Gas to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 20, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli energy company Delek, which is owned by Nobel Energy, signed a $15 billion deal with Egypt to provide the Egyptians with natural gas over the next 10 years.

This is the largest contract yet for the off shore, natural gas fields that the Israelis tapped and have been operating since 2016.

Jordan also has an agreement with Israel. Israel will deliver natural gas in exchange for $10 billion over a 15 year period.

Israel is becoming a regional provider of natural gas. Arab nations are signing up for their natural gas. It is another one of those counter intuitive situations. Israel is now supplying the Arab world with energy.

Arab countries are already importing Israeli energy - other countries and other products are sure to follow.

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Iran's FM Says Myth Of Israell Shattered
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that when Hezbollah downed an Israeli F-16, it shattered the myth of Israel's invincibility. He said that now when Israel attacks its Arab neighbors the neighbors can attack and defeat them.

"Israel uses aggression as a policy against its neighbors," Mohammad Javad Zarif told the Munich Security Conference. He also accused Israel of "mass reprisals against its neighbors and daily incursions into Syria, Lebanon."

According to Zarif, "Once the Syrians have the guts to down one of its planes it's as if a disaster has happened."

In response to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's remarks after the Feb. 10 downing of the Israeli F-16 jet, Zarif had this to say: "What has happened in the past several days is the so-called invincibility (of Israel) has crumbled."

Iran is stoking tensions with Israel in order to provoke responses in the Middle East. Israel needs to watch Iran very carefully.

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Bibi to Visit White House March 5
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The White House announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the Oval Office on Monday March 5. Netanyahu will be in DC for the Annual AIPAC Policy Conference.

This will be their 5th meeting since President Trump took office and the third meeting held in the White House. Netanyahu was one of the first foreign leaders to visit newly-elected President Trump. Their first meeting was in February, the second in May.

There was speculation that the White House was creating distance with Netanyahu because of the corruption investigations against him being conducted in Israel. Clearly, the speculation is inaccurate.

The White House said the meeting has nothing to do with internal Israeli issues. The White House does not alter its plans for such things. According to a White House Statement, "no impact on the content or timing of our plan that is currently being drafted."

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Oman FM Visits Al-Aqsa
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

I read with fascination about Foreign Minister of Oman Yusuf Bin Alawi's rare visit to the al-Aqsa Mosque (also known as the Dome of the Rock) and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.

The visit occurred while the Foreign Minister was visiting Ramallah for talks with Palestinian President Abbas. Oman does not have diplomatic relations with Israel. Both the Dome of the Rock and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre are within Israel.

Under normal circumstances this kind of trip would be coordinated through the Israeli Foreign Ministry. It was not the case with this visit.

Last week diplomats from Qatar and Kuwait visited the Mosque and last September a Qatari minister visited the mosque.

The head of the mosque, Omar al-Kiswani, told Reuters that the Omani's visit was "important, especially after Trump's decision, to support the steadfastness of the Palestinian people and to prove to the world that Arabs and Muslims stand with the Palestinians in the face of this decision."

Visits to the Mosque by Arab and Muslim leaders will be worth monitoring.

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Rouhani to India
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Rouhani has arrived in New Deli for a very unique diplomatic visit.

Iran wants India to invest in them - they are seeking billions of money from India.

Iranian Prime Minister Modi just returned from a trip to the Middle East and he did not visit Iran - instead Iran is visiting him.

The US is pushing hard to further isolate Iran and cut back on the now infamous nuke deal. They are lobbying India to back off any Iranian deal.

As soon as sanctions against Iran were lifted in 2015, India jumped in. They have invested over $20 billion in an Iranian sea port close to India. India has also invested in perto-industries and in infrastructure like trains and rails.

India is importing about $12 billion in oil from Iran and exporting only about $2 billion in goods to Iran.

India sees a real future with Iran - and they really need the oil.

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Tillerson in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Syria which involved Iran and Russia is not making his trip any easier.

Tillerson kicked off his trip in Egypt. He will also visit Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

The US has an uphill fight in the Middle East. The unusual dimension of this trip is that Tillerson will not visit Israel. He will be all around Israel, to the south and to the east. He will probably fly over Israel twice, but will not be stopping.

Bypassing Israel on this trip is probably in the best interest of the US diplomatic effort. But there is no way to uncouple Israel and the US, their friendship and links - especially after the announcement by President Trump to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

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Syria. Iran, Russia Proud they Downed Israeli F-16
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 13, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to stay in Syria. They have been invigorated by the downing of an Israeli F-16.

Senior advisor to the Grand Ayatollah in Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati, said on Monday that the "Iranian presence in Syria will continue."

He continued: "The downing of the Israeli F-16 planes is an important milestone in the conflict with Israel," ... "Israel must know that every attack will get the same response, it is Syria's right. The axis of resistance will protect its sovereignty, and we will not remain silent to Israeli aggression."

Iran, Russia and especially Syria were shown that Israel is no longer untouchable. That will benefit all of them. The victory is mostly psychological.

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Poles Miscalculated
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

One of the results of the new Polish law restricting speech and prohibiting the use of the term "Polish Death Camp" is a backlash of anti-Semitism.

For example: A Polish radio journalist named Bogdan Zalewski posted on his facebook page: "Poles, we are at war! We are at war with the Jews! Not for the first time in our history." ... "We can find ourselves in a state of absolute isolation that completely exhausts us down to annihilation. In my opinion, it is necessary for Poles to be aware and to work on the development of the national spirit."

At war with the Jews!

Another TV host and guest called the Nazi camps Jewish Death Camps.

The anti-Semitism is becoming pervasive. Piotr Kadlick, a leader of the Jewish community, was quoted in JTA saying "In my worst nightmares I never expected to hear jokes about Auschwitz, Jews and gas chambers on state-owned television."

Much damage has been done as a result of this law. Poland did not anticipate the harsh worldwide response their law has received. Neither did they expect that Israel would have reacted so dramatically.

Poland miscalculated.

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Israel Iran in Conflict in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel was attacked - Israel struck back. That is the best way to begin to understand what happened on the morning of Saturday, February 10th. Two incidents occurred on that morning.

Here are details about those incidents.

Incident #1: In the early hours of the morning an Iranian drone (UAV) crossed into Israel and was shot down by an Israeli Apache helicopter.
Incident #2: The IDF dispatched four F-16s to strike the fourteen targets in Syria responsible for the launch.

Israel needed to thread the needle and make certain not to hit Russian forces headquartered in the same locations as the Syrians. After
accomplishing the mission the four F-16s returned to Israeli airspace.

Back over Israeli airspace and flying high in altitude in relaxed mode, one F-16 was hit by an S-5 missile. The S-5 was fired by a Syrian anti-air battery operating Russian equipment. The two Israelis in the F-16 ejected and landed in Israel. The plane crashed in the Western Galilee near Shfaram.

The plane would never have been hit had it been flying lower and at a greater speed.

The Iranian drone was a re-engineered version of the US drone that was hijacked in 2011 and brought to Iran. Iran renamed it the US RQ-170. It was intended to be Iran's secret weapon.

It is a stealth UAV that was supposed to be undetectable to defense systems - especially radar. But Israel immediately discovered the UAV. They traced it back to its source which was Camp T-4, an Iranian and Russian military base in Syria.

The US version of the drone was an RQ-170 Sentinel by Lockheed Martin. Its wingspan is 65 ft and it stands 6 feet high and is about 15 feet from front to back. To be operated, the drone requires three people from its base.

There has been extensive coverage of the F-16 crash, the collection of remaining plane parts and the status of the crew.

There has been no information on the drone.

The drone will be examined and the United States and Israel will share intel about the differences between the original RQ-170 Sentinel and the US RQ-170 Sentinel.

Putin and Netanyahu spoke immediately afterward the incidents. They seem to be on the same page.

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Russia Explains US Motives
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Russian defense ministry released a statement yesterday that gave insight into the way Russia views the US and their role in Syria. According to the statement Russia is convinced that the real goal of the United States is to gain economic assets in Syria.

These statements are being released as tensions in Syria rise. Airstrikes on both sides are escalating. Syrian forces are hitting US allies and US allies are hitting Assad allies affiliated with Russia.

The US attacked Assad strongholds yesterday. At the same time Russia hit ISIS and other rebels challenging Assad's control in Syria.

The situation in Syria is safer and more in control than they were before - there are bigger issues at stake. Russia and the US are vying for control.

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Iran Guards Divest From Oil Holdings
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is demanding that all government agencies divest from all oil holdings. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are major shareholders in Iranian oil as are other Iranian groups.

"Not only the Social Security Organization but all government sectors, including banks, have to divest their business holdings, and this is the only way to rescue the country's economy," Rouhani said. "Government officials, non=government institutions and the armed forces and others -- everyone has to divest their commercial businesses."

There has been popular blowback against Iranian leadership. The major complaint is that the economy has not improved over the past 5 years, ever since the more liberal Rhouhani has been in power. Frustration has grown even more intense since the famous Nuke Deal was signed in March of 2016.

After the deal, sanctions were lifted on Iranian oil exports - but the Iranian economy was unaffected because the money was kept internally.

This policy should open the Iranian oil market to outside investment. And that may just dramatically improve the economy.
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Abbas Says Only We can Sign a Treaty
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is continuing his opposition to US policy. Abbas continues to attack the United States by saying that the US cannot force them into an agreement and that the US is not to be trusted as an honest mediator.

While delivering a speech Abbas said that the US cannot force the Palestinians to sign a peace deal. That they cannot impose a peace treaty.

Abbas held up his pen as a prop and said "this is our pen and we are the only ones who can sign."

It was an effective metaphor and strong symbolic gesture.

Abbas continued on saying that the Palestinians will only sign a deal if it includes a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and with East Jerusalem as the capital. It should include all the areas within in the pre-'67 borders.

Abbas is also facing charges that he wire tapped his opponents and allies in order to keep tabs on them. The surveillance was done by the CIA and the intelligence was handed over to Abbas.

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ISIS Attacking Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 6, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is on the run - but they are still extremely lethal.

ISIS has moved out of Syria and Iraq and now has a stronghold in the mountain area along the Iranian-Iraq border. This is Kurdish area.

The area is very difficult to access. It is extremely secure because of numerous caves. Locals have actually renamed the area Tora Bora after Osama Bin Laden's hideout in Afghanistan.

From this secure location ISIS has been regularly striking against Iranian forces using raids and suicide bombers.

Lethal, extremely lethal.

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Abbas Will Ask UN for Recognition
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Word is that Palestinian President Abbas is going to ask the United Nations Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly to recognize the State of Palestine with Jerusalem as its capital.

This is another Palestinian mistake. There is no possible way this will pass in the Security Council.

The General Assembly, however, is another game entirely.

The General Assembly will almost certainly support the Palestinian proposal. Even so, that decision will have no legal status. It will be a public relations victory for the Palestinians, nothing more.

Abbas' request will isolate other critical parties when it comes to other resolutions. Israel, the United States and every country that believes that a resolution between Palestinians and Israelis requires negotiation - not a proclamation, will be enraged by this move within the UN.

Consider this to be another in a series of Palestinian diplomatic errors.

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Hamas Smuggles Explosive into Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Kerem Shalom is the commercial border crossing between Israel and Gaza.
Kerem Shalom is the path through which thousands of trucks travel from Israel into Gaza delivering essential goods - including medicine clothes and food.

And it is through that crossing that Hamas continually attempts to smuggle in contraband. All kinds of contraband - including building materials that can be used to make tunnels and even explosive materials - as they attempted to do this morning.

Early Sunday, at the Kerem Shalom border, Israel discovered explosive supplies hidden in a medical supplies shipment.
Unfortunately this is typical.

Using supplies whose purpose is to heal civilians as cover for material that will murder innocents is a tactic often utilized by Hamas.

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Iran Expanding Influence
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leadership has made it clear that they are regional leaders and they do not plan on backing down because of international pressure.

The advisor to the Grand Ayatollah Khamenai, Ali Akbar Velayati was quoted in the official news agency Fars saying: "Iran's influence in the region is inevitable and to remain a key player in the region, this influence will continue ..."

He continued: "Iran has no intention to abandon the oppressed nations in the region ... Our presence in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon is in coordination with the governments of these countries."

Iran is bringing it's A game to the region. They are expanding their influence.

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Jewish 8 yr Old Attacked in France
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An eight year old Jewish boy in France was beaten up and kicked by a gang. He was wearing a kippah. It was a hate crime.

The French president, Emanuel Marcon, tweeted: "Each time a citizen is attacked because of his age, appearance or religion, it is the whole nation that is attacked."

There has been a worrisome rash of anti-Semitism in Europe. Combine that with threats of terror in France and attacks against the Jewish community and individual Jews and the situation is extremely dangerous.

French political leadership always says the right things. The police are starting to take all that is happening more seriously. There is a real risk that this targeting of Jews is on the upswing.

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Louvre Displaying Nazi Looted Art
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 31, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Louvre, that famous museum in France, has hung 31 paintings in their main exhibit that were all looted by the Nazis between 1940 -1945, when they controlled France.

Of the 45,000 pieces of art that were looted by the Nazis, some 2,000 pieces remain unclaimed. Most of the artwork was looted from Jewish families.

Over the years there has been a negative - almost evil, narrative in which renowned museums were thought to have profited from looted art. They displayed them and had them as part of their collections knowing that the provenance of Nazi looted art was questionable.

In some cases museums even argued in court against Jewish families and claimed that they were the true owners.

This is a very real and genuine move by the Louvre to help resuscitate the reputations of museums that have looted art in their collections.

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IDF Publishes Column in Arab Press
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 30, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF spokesman, Brigadier General Ronen Menalis, wrote a column that was published and then broadcast in multiple Arabic media outlets in Lebanon and Israel - including Al Masdar, Sputnik, The Voice of Lebanon and Israeli Arabic radio.

In the column Menalis wrote that Lebanon has become a launching pad for Iran and Hezbollah and that Israel will not let that continue.

"Through the actions and inaction of the Lebanese authorities, Lebanon is turning into one big missile factory while much of the international community looks the other way. It's no longer about transfers of arms, money or advice. De facto, Iran has opened a new branch, the Lebanon branch -- Iran is here ... Iran and Hezbollah are currently trying to build a precision missile factory."

The IDF spokesman continued.

"One of every three or four homes in southern Lebanon is a command post, position, weapons warehouse or hiding place for Hezbollah. We know these assets and will know how to attack them accurately if necessary. The future of the people of Lebanon is to be pawns in the hands of the dictator from Tehran. Those same heads of villages, towns, cities and government institutions who see what is going on and say nothing are also to blame."

The response from Hezbollah was expected. They called the premise of the column arrogant and said that Hezbollah would be able to defeat the Israeli Army.

Menalis is convinced that Southern Lebanon is a powder keg about to explode and responsibility for the explosion lies with those who let it happen.

The message was heard - but it will not be heeded.

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Jordan's King Says East Jerusalem to Be Palestinian Capital
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

As promised, the United States delivered the last batch of 12 black hawk helicopters to Jordan as part of a plan to bolster Jordanian troops and security and help them better defend themselves against Islamic extremists like al Qaeda and ISIS.

It was no surprise that Jordan's King Abdullah announced that he affirms his support for the only peace solution possible in his eyes... a two state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian State.

"I think our views on Palestine and Jerusalem are well known to you," the Jordanian king told the German president on Sunday. "We do believe in a two-state solution, with (East) Jerusalem as a capital for the Palestinians."

The king of Jordan has made himself perfectly clear. It is his belief that the best solution to the Palestinian / Israeli problem is for East Jerusalem to become the capital of the Palestinian State and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel.

Most Israelis would agree with this plan - so would the United States.

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Israel to Give Electricity to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 28, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel Water Authority just agreed to supply Gaza with electricity to run their two sewage treatment plants.

The agreement between the Water Authority and the Gaza Electricity Distribution Company is in stages. First, three megawatts for the sewage treatment center in Northern Gaza and then, later on, a treatment center in Southern Gaza will get fueled.

The new centers are part of a $75 million project funded by the World Bank and other donor countries. It should be completed in March.

Israel is also providing 1.5 mega watts of electricity for a $40 million desalination plant that is being built by the EU.

Israel is in a pickle. Despite Hamas' constant state of war, it is in Israel's best interest to clean up the sewage of Gaza. Gaza sewage has been dumping into the Mediterranean Sea polluting Israel's beaches and contaminating the water sources. It's a serious problem and has been going on for way too long.

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Lorde Heckled by Pro Israel Fan
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 26, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Several weeks ago, New Zealand pop star Lorde canceled a concert scheduled to take place in Israel. The BDS inspired cancellation caused quite an uproar.

Yesterday Lorde was in NYC at a benefit for Ally Coalition, an organization that defends and supports the LGBTQ community. Lorde told the crowd how nice they were for gathering together in support of such a great cause.

A heckler shouted out that there are nice people in Israel, too. The heckler was shouted down with obscenities and finally with "F---- the negativity."

According to Variety, Lorde then added: "I'm sure the Israeli people are very nice and I can't wait to meet them one day."

The BDS movement convinced Lorde to cancel her Israeli concert. It was a big deal in the entertainment world and a big victory for BDS.

Lovers of Israel will not forget that Lorde buckled under BDS pressure.

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Iran - Woman Uses Headscarf as Flag
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 25, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

During the protests in Iran a young woman jumped up on a telephone box and slowly took off her white head dress, her hijab. She tied the hajib on a black stick and started waving it like a flag. This was a massive move of defiance against a regime that has, since 1979, required women to cover their hair.

Twitter and social media lit. The incident was first tweeted by Armin Navabi, he posted the video of the woman and wrote: "This woman in #Iran took off her #Hijab to protest the mandatory Islamic dress code imposed on Iranian women. #IStandWithHer #IranProtests #Islam."

The woman seen waving her scarf has disappeared. A new hastag, #Where_Is_She, is dedicated to finding her. Through social media it has been determined that the woman was 31 years old and the mother of a 19 month old child.

According to another tweet she was reportedly arrested on Dec 27, released and then rearrested.

For many, this woman has become the symbol of Iran's protests.

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Al Qaeda - Use Cars to Murder Jews
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 24, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda leadership is calling on Muslims around the world to attack Jews with knives and cars and all other weapons, including burning their homes. That should come as no surprise.

The number two in Al Qaeda of the Arabia Penninsula (AQPA), Khaled Batarfi, went on TV and delivered an 18 minute appeal to every Muslim.

"The Muslims inside the occupied land must kill every Jew, by running him over, or stabbing him, or by using against him any weapon, or by burning their homes." "Our duty towards our Jerusalem."

He said: "Every Muslim must know that the Americans and the disbeliever West, and on top of them Britain and France, are the original reason behind the existence of the Jews in Palestine."

This is a classic example of extremist Islamic leadership stoking flames of anger and murder. Unfortunately, this leadership is predictable. The real impact of Batarfi's message is on impressionable masses.

The masses are not hearing alternative voices or even condemnations of Batarfi.

That is the real problem.

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Drug Smuggling inIsrael
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 23, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Drugs are an epidemic in Israel.

Most of the drugs in Israel are either created there, grown there or smuggled in over the borders of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria or Egypt.

Yesterday a drug smuggler was shot to death on the Egyptian Israeli border. The 25 year old Israeli was shot by other drug smugglers - Egyptians across the border.

Israel is clamping down on cross border drug smuggling. These smugglers are highly sophisticated and efficient. They are also deadly and like drug dealers everywhere, they are ruthless.

There is cooperation between Egyptians and Israelis when it comes to drug smuggling. Bottom line is this - drug smuggling is a business transaction.

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Abbas Asks EU to Recognize Paelstinian State
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 22, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is in Brussels at the monthly meeting of the European Union.

Abbas is asking the EU to support and recognize the Palestinian State. It is his response to US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Neither the EU nor any of the foreign ministers present at the meeting will support such a drastic move. While EU members already recognize Palestine, each and every one of them knows that a state requires borders and that those borders must be established, set and coordinated through direct negotiations with Israel.

Otherwise, it is simply rhetoric.

The Palestinian Authority is overreaching in every step they take. It is a pitiful play. If they continue on at this rate, the PA will move themselves out of the game as players.

Immature moves have repercussions. More mature minds and more mature leadership need to step in to make decisions and represent the PA. If that happens, they may be able to save the PA from themselves.

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Turks March on Kurds
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 21, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish tanks have crossed the border into Syria. Turkish forces are marching on Kurdish enclaves in Syria. The Turkish air force reports that they struck 153 Kurdish targets.

These are the same Kurds that have just received US support and weapons.

The Turks went ballistic when the Kurds received the US aid. Now they are claiming that the United States is supporting terrorists. They have announced to the Kurds that they cannot depend on US assistance to help them.

The French have asked Turkey to withdraw their forces. Even the Iranians issued a statement on Sunday asking the Turks to quickly conclude their operation explaining that the Turkish presence may stimulate more terror and extremism in Syria.

Turkey sees the Kurds as enemies and terrorists and are insulted that the United States has lent them assistance. The Turks want to squash the Kurds.

Turkish President Erdogan has promised to expand operations in Kurdish controlled areas in Syria. He will probably finish this operation, withdraw and then attack again soon.

The conflict is increasing in intensity. This flash point is not going to disappear in the near future.

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When Will The US Move the Embassy
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 19, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Netanyahu committed a faux pas when he made a public statement claiming that the United States will complete the transition and move their embassy to Jerusalem within the year.

President Trump responded that it will take time and that it will not be within the year.

The prime minister's office has now back peddled and released the following statement:

"Obviously the building of a new embassy takes years, but the prime minister believes that the US is considering construction steps which will likely to see the opening of the embassy in a short timeframe."

According to reports by The New York Times and i24News, the United States embassy in Israel will open in Jerusalem in 2019. That was also confirmed by sources in the State Department and the White House.

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Israel Pursues Justice
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 18, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is working hard to clamp down on violent, criminal and racist attacks against Palestinians.

Some of these attacks are known as "price tag" attacks against Arabs. The term is a Hebrew expression for a retaliatory strike. These attacks are payback for attacks against Israeli Jews. Most recently there has been graffiti on cars and the slashing of tires in Arab villages. The graffiti reads "Arabs out."

Police are investigating the incidents and will catch and charge those responsible for the crimes.

On that point, this week Israel finally successfully extradited Yehoshua Elitzur from Brazil. Elitzur was found guilty of murdering a Palestinian and fled the country before his sentencing in 2004. He will now serve his sentence in Israel.

These are important illustrations of how Israel is trying to tamp down on extremists, including Israeli extremists. Israel really is a society of law where Arabs are equal citizens.

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US Says 73% Terrorists Are Foreigners
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 17, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


The US Department of Homeland Security released a series of frightening numbers about terrorists.

The most shocking number is that of all those convicted of terrorism in the US, 73% are foreigners.

Over the past year (2017), 2,500 people on the terror watch list were stopped at airports across the US. That averages out to about 7 per day.

The DHS said that this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The 10 page report showed that over the past 6 years more than 370,000 people who were deported from the US had felony convictions and 2 had two non-felony convictions.

The report also disclosed that some of the worst traditions from elsewhere in the world are taking hold in the United States. These traditions violate US law and are anathema to the freedoms enshrined in US culture, society and law. Here's an example: there have been 27 honor killings in the US and 1,500 forced marriages.


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Palestinians Renege on Israel Recognition
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 16, 2018

I've Been Thinking:


The Palestinian Central Committee is the arm which creates policy for the PLO. The Committee has voted to renege on the 1993 Oslo Accords, the agreement that recognizes Israel and advances the proposition of a two-state solution. The vote was 74 in favor, 2 opposed and 12 abstentions.

The Palestinians are breaking off all interaction and relationships with Israel - including security cooperation.

The resolution, which is binding, "mandates the Palestine Liberation Organization's executive committee to suspend recognition of Israel until it recognizes the state of Palestine, cancels the decision to annex east Jerusalem and stops settlement activity."

The resolution also demands that Israel return to the 1967 borders and pursues the Arab peace initiative.

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Abbas Slaps Trump Hard
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 15, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

One of the ugliest, yet non-crude Arabic curses, is "may your house come to ruin."

That is what Palestinian President Abbas wished upon US President Donald Trump yesterday at the two day conference about Jerusalem taking place in Ramallah.

Abbas said that he found out about the US pulling their United Nations aid to the Palestinians from a tweet. Abbas said: "I see a tweet on Twitter." He said the tweet read: "'We will not give the Palestinians money because they refuse to negotiate." And then, referring to Trump, Abbas continued by saying: "May your house come to ruin. Where did you offer that to me? On the phone? On television?"

Abbas then explained why Jerusalem is important to Islam by saying it was the first direction of prayer. That is true. But what Abbas did not explain is that the prophet Mohammed turned his back on Jerusalem when the Jews rejected his prophecy.

Abbas said "True, Jerusalem does not have the Kaaba (a structure in Mecca considered the holiest site to Islam), but it is the first direction for prayer and the third holiest site to Muslims."

"Jerusalem is our eternal capital," Abbas declared, "come what may. It is for this reason that we are gathered here - to defend it. We're in a sensitive position. What can we comprise on later? The state itself? Abu Dis as capital? We're done. Here we stay. We will not make the mistakes of the past - of 1948 and 1967 - again. Jerusalem and al-Aqsa, of which Mohammad spoke, are one of the holiest sites after Mecca and Medina."

The Palestinians are trying to stoke the flames of conflict. They want people to get excited. They are rejecting past agreements and past proposals. Abbas is r-writing the playbook on peaceful negotiations and diplomacy.


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Rouhani & Trump on the Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 14, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

There's been a back and forth volley going on about the Iranian nuclear deal lately.

US President Trump has called on the major powers who signed the deal to "fix the terrible flaws" in the agreement. He even gave them an ultimatum, saying that they need to fix it or the United States will withdraw from the agreement.

Iranian President Mohamed Rouhani shot back on Iranian TV. He said that the United States was unsuccessful at torpedoing the agreement which he called a "long lasting victory" for Iran.

Rouhani said: "The American administration has failed to undermine the nuclear deal ... Trump, despite his repeated efforts, has failed to undermine the accord ... The deal is a long-lasting victory for Iran."

This is just the beginning of tensions.

President Trump is committed to improving the agreement. The other powers and Iran are satisfied with the agreement.

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Putin Complements Kim Jong Un
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 12, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Russia's President Vladimir Putin complemented North Korea's Supreme Commander Kim Jong Un. He called Kim Jung competent and mature and added that Kim Jong was handling a complex global situation in a calm and mature manner.

These are Putin's exact words: Kim Jong Un "is an absolutely competent and already mature politician" who has "solved his strategic task - he has a nuclear warhead and a global-range missile." Putin continued on, saying that Kim Jong is "cleaning up the situation, smoothing it, calming it."

This is a perfect Putin moment. What Russia's leader is really doing is complementing the North Korean leader on how he is handling Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America. It is also a direct attack against Trump.

Trump and Kim Jung have been flamboyantly bickering ever since Trump assumed the presidency. The exchange got so wild that there were those who thought it may lead to military, perhaps even nuclear, attacks or even war.

And in the end who is the calming force? In Putin's eyes the responsible, mature leader is Kim Jong Un of North Korea.

This is not just an attack on Trump, it is also a way of buttering up Kim Jong for something important in the very near future.


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Iran FM Visits Moscow
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 11, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

No surprise - Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif traveled to Moscow to meet with his counterpart, Sergey Levrov.

The obvious reason for the meeting was to discuss the now infamous Iran nuke agreement, from the spring of 2015, between Iran and the P-5 + 1.
Both Iran and Russia support Assad and want him in place, so they certainly discussed that, too. But it's the nuke deal that was primary on the Iranian agenda.

Since the US presidential election a year ago, the White House has been saying that they want to scrap the agreement. It was part and parcel of the Trump Platform. Candidate Trump called it "the worst deal ever" and "the worst deal in history."

Iran received assurances from Moscow that they would defend the agreement and they would fight against the "destructive policies" of the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov praised the now infamous agreement calling it the "key contribution to the regional stability and nuclear non-proliferation."

So again, it's no surprise that Iran and Russia are in cahoots when it comes to Syria and when it comes to boxing in the United States in the Middle East.

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Mossad Head Says They're Watching Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 10, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Israeli Mossad, Yossi Cohen, addressed a finance ministry conference the other day.

Cohen spoke about Iran and the political protests there. He said: "We have eyes and ears and more than that in Iran." He continued to say that while the protest movements are welcome, we should not expect to see real change in Iran.

Obviously Israel is monitoring the happenings in Iran from the outside and the inside. They have assets, not agents, there. Agents in Iran would be too risky. But more important than assets, Israel has computer technology that spies on almost everything in Iran.

Remember the Stuxnet virus that invaded Iran? There were at least four other viruses like Stuxnet that have invaded Iran. Those viruses give Israel real insight into what is happening.

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Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 9, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian Election Authority announced that the presidential election will take place March 26 - 28. If no candidate garners 50% of the votes there will be a runoff April 19 - 21.

Egyptian President al Sisi was elected 4 years ago. Even though elected, al Sisi took office by ousting the duly elected President Morsi who was part of the Muslim Brotherhood. A cloud has been hanging over al Sisi's presidency, he was originally elected with nearly no opposition.

All Sisi has yet to declare for the upcoming election, but it seems clear that other potentially viable candidates are feeling pressured to stay out of the election.

Egypt is a pseudo-democracy and the obvious question now is how free the election will be. Not whether people will be able to vote - but will candidates be able to stand for election.

The most important rule in fledgling democracies is that all democratic parties and all people who represent democratic ideas be permitted the chance to stand for election. Non-democratic voices and parties must be sidelined.

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Iran To Stop Teaching English
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 8, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has banned teaching English in elementary schools. The decision was made by the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Khamenai.

Iranian leadership sees English as a jumping board to assimilation and as an open invitation for Western culture to enter Iran. The response is to shut down what the Grand Ayatollah terms the "cultural invasion."

Mehdi Navid Adham, speaking for the ministry of education, described the logic behind the policy of rejecting the teaching of English in Iran this way: "Teaching English in government and non-government primary schools in the official curriculum is against laws and regulations."

Iranian leadership may be correct regarding cultural assimilation. But from the technological, scientific and medical vantage point, it will thrust Iran backwards. In as little as 15 years Iranians will not be able to compete on the world stage in any science, computer or technology related field.

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Rift in Gaza Over Prayer
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 7, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

A massive rift is emerging in Gaza - and it is had nothing to do with politics. This rift is over morning prayer.

Muslims pray 5 times a day. The first prayer is said at dawn. It is called "fajr" which means dawn. A committee of religious leaders thinks that the fajr has not been well attended and have decided to start a Gaza-wide campaign to change the situation. They are waking up all of Gaza for dawn prayers.

For the daily wakeup call they are not only using loudspeakers from the mosque as is traditionally done, but they are making them even louder and they are adding drums to the call to prayer.

There has been serious blowback, even from several Islamic scholars, who say that it is against Islamic law to annoy people.

Abdel-Bari Khela, a mufti, an imam and a very influential scholar of Islam, explained that while the fajr is very important, so is protecting people's sleep and not annoying them and this intrusion into their daily lives could backfire. He said, "The banging will awaken children and it will cause confusion."

Khela issued an Islamic ruling about the importance of prayer and going to the mosque at dawn. He also said that it is against Islam''s instructions to "annoy" people. He said that there are two traditional calls of prayer issued from the mosque, known as "azans," according to the instruction of Islam and you are not to add to them and disturb people.

"Replacing them with illegitimate means such as drums, music and loud sound that makes noise is illegal. If it leads to harm like annoying people or disturbing them, this is forbidden."

Filling the mosques at dawn is now a policy of the government. The ministry of religious affairs in Gaza has chosen to become involved and is sponsoring the early wakeup, so it has now become political. More people will be coming to dawn prayers but the inevitable outcome is that even more people will be angered.

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Texas Imam Calls to Kill Jews
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 5, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

An Imam from Houston named Raed Saleh Al-Rousan used his radio show as a forum to call on Muslims to kill Jews - and did not realize it was offensive. Al-Rousan is the founder of an Islamic institute in Houston. He did not think it was issuing a a call for violence until some of his colleagues explained it to him.

Al-Rousan said, "[Judgement Day] will not come until Muslims fight the Jews there, in Palestine"in a Dec. 8 sermon titled "Our duties towards Al-Quds [Jerusalem]."

The he quoted from the Koran saying: "The Muslims will kill the Jews, and the Jews will hide behind the stones and the trees, and the stones and the trees will say: 'Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew hiding behind me, come and kill him.'" He then added that "this is the promise of Allah."

The Imam continued: "The Muslims will have victory. [Jews] know these facts, brothers and sisters, but they are trying to delay it...because they don't want for us to be religious."

It is hard to imagine that anyone would not see this as a call to violence.

The Imam was mistaken in his words and in his sentiment. I would hope that the federal prosecutor investigates the Imam for hate speech and as a threat to murder Jews.

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Iranian Terror Cell in West Bank
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 4, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli internal security, the Shin Bet, uncovered an Iranian terror cell.

The Israeli daily Haaretz published a groundbreaking piece that describes how Iran recruited Palestinians through contacts in South Africa.

In South Africa, the Palestinian recruit would meet Iranian agents and get their orders. The recruit would then go back to the Palestinian Authority and organize a cell with the money and the information received from their recruiters and handlers in South Africa. The cells included suicide bombers, snipers and general shooters.

Recruits were responsible for two important missions. The first is intelligence. The recruits were clearly delivering important data to Iran. Second, they were responsible for activating real terrorists to act and attack Israelis.

This is just one of many Iranian ventures that, we’re sure, are out there.

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England Wants Iran to Debate their Differences
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 3, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

In response to the demonstrations against the leadership in Iran, Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May said, through her spokesman, that Iran should talk these issues through.

"We believe there should be meaningful debate about the legitimate and important issues that the protesters are raising, and we're looking to the Iranian authorities to permit that."

The logic behind the British call for debate is - laughable.

There is no way that any of the sides in Iran want to discuss anything. The protesters want change and the supporters of the Theocratic regime want everyone to conform.

There really are no grounds for compromise here.

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Iran Has Tradition of Protests
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 2, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has a great tradition of protests and rallies. These protests do not often make it into Western the news cycle. But when it comes to Iranian anti-government protests, the Western media is on top of the story.

Protests have continued popping up in dozens of cities and towns. Some of the protests have tens of thousands of people. So far Iranian leadership has not clamped down on the protest.

Iranian leadership needs to figure out how and when to quell the protests. Will their actions stimulate more protests and more protesters? If they crush the rallies, what backfire might they expect?

Iran is a society that is hard to track. While there are a significant number of people who want to oust the religious theocracy, there are also those who participate in counter protests supporting the government and the theocratic regime.

How is the population split? Is it 60%40%? 50%-50%? 55%-45%? Iran would like us to think that it is 90%-10%.

We really do not know.

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Putin Tells Assad Russia will Protect Him
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 1, 2018

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin sent a New Year message to Syrian President Assad. The content of the message was delivered by the Kremlin.

The Kremlin promised Assad that they will "continue to render every assistance to Syria in the protection of state sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, in the promotion of a political settlement process, as well as in efforts to restore the national economy."

This note, now made public, is an essential tool to understanding Russia's future interest and directions in Syria.

Russia is investing in Syria for the long haul.

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Revolution May be Starting in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There are signs of revolution in Iran.

Every year since 2009, a series of rallies take place in various cities throughout the Islamic Republic. The rallies commemorate the Green Revolution that almost ousted the theocracy.
This year is different.

The rallies are becoming protests. They pop up with more and more people, thousands and sometimes even tens of thousands, in attendance. They pop up simultaneously in dozens of cities and towns, big and small, across Iran.

Watching videos of the rallies is impressive. Throngs of mostly young Iranian males are gathering and Iranian leadership is not pleased. Iran is attempting to stop the social media that promotes and then proudly showcases the events.

An interesting twist is that Iranian President Rhouhani spoke and said that Iran needs to focus on economics and internal issues, not Syria and Palestine. The president said that the real enemy of Iran is not the U.S. or Israel but is economics and the local issues surrounding Iran. By that he means Saudi Arabia.

This move away from tradition, propelled by the Iranian masses, may be just the opportunity Rhouhani needs. If he can grab on and ride the wave he may be able to move Iran in the direction he promised to take.

In the meantime, however, thousands of rally attendees have been arrested. Police are showing some restraint and not attacking the protesters, just arresting them. The demonstrators are shouting for economic opportunity.

Women in burkas have taken to the streets, as well. In their own separate, rallies, they too are asking for economic change.
In the next few days we will be able to determine if this is a massive movement or a passing fad.

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Protests in Iran - 1000 Arrested
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There were protests in Mashad, Iran yesterday. The protestors shouted "Death to the dictator", "Death to [Hassan] Rouhani", "Don't be afraid, we are together", "Not Gaza, nor Lebanon, my life for Iran." They also shouted "long live Reza." That is a shout for the Shah.

There are reports that Iran arrested 1000 protestors.

Mashad is the second largest city in Iran located in north east Iran.

The protests illustrate a real crack in the Iranian system, it proves that people are willing to go to jail in order to express their dissent against tyranny and religious dictatorship.

People who live in Iran and are willing to chant "Don't be afraid, we are together," "Not Gaza, nor Lebanon, my life for Iran" are not afraid of the consequences.

Even more and more people will attend the next protests - but there are only so many prisons in Iran.

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Russia to Sell Turkey S-400 Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Turkey have come to an agreement. Russia will provide Turkey with 4 S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.

The missile batteries will cost Turkey $2.5 billion. They will be delivered by 2020. Upfront, Turkey will have to pay 45% of the cost. The other 55% will be a loan repaid to Russia over time.

The West is not happy with this arms deal.

The S-400 is not on the NATO weapons list and so it does not fit into the NATO system. Turkey is a member of NATO and weapons lists are there in order to provide smooth transitions and an understanding between members.

Turkey is the first NATO nation to acquire the S-400. This might be a game shifter. The S-400 is Russias most highly developed surface-to-air missile system.

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PA Arrests Famous Arafat Crony
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

If you criticize Palestinian President Abbas or his government you can get arrested. If you are a public person who commands a following, your arrest is more than likely.

Mohammed al-Dayya, a retired Brigadier General in the Palestinian National Security, Service was arrested for his critique of Abbas.

Not only was he a general, al-Dayya was also Yasser Arafat's person security guard. Arafat went nowhere without al-Dayya.

The al-Dayya family was stunned by the arrest and issued the following statement: "we were surprised by the unfair and illegal arrest of our militant son, Brigadier General Mohammed al-Dayya, by the Palestinian military Intelligence Service four days ago."

There are serious doubts about whether the Palestinian Authority is a democracy.

This arrest once again proves that personal rights and democracy are not a foundation of the PA.

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Wall to Wall Support for Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem is a hot button international issue these days.

In Israel, however, there is no debate about the status of the nation's capital. In Israel, there is wall to wall consensus item.

The leader of the Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, made the point clearly and succinctly. He said: "I will not negotiate over Jerusalem. We're better off with no peace agreement than with an agreement that divides Jerusalem."

Yesh Atid is a center left party that has marketed itself as the conscious of Israel. If Yair Lapid is so clear about Jerusalem, rest assured that most of Israel is of the same mind.

Right and left in Israel are all in favor of maintaining Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. They all agree that Jerusalem should be the seat of all foreign diplomatic representations.

It is - simply put -- a no brainer.

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Guatemala to Move Embassy to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Guatemala has announced that it is going to follow US President Trump's decision and move their embassy to Jerusalem.

Costa Rica and El Salvador once had their embassies in Jerusalem. Paraguay, Honduras and Guatemala had their embassies just outside Jerusalem in the city of Mivaseret Zion. By 2006, all of these countries had moved their embassies from the Jerusalem area to Tel Aviv to placate Yasser Arafat and the PLO.

At the time their move was a major blow to Jerusalem. But now it looks like some of those countries are starting to return.

Here is the Guatemalan announcement: "We spoke about the great relationships we have had as nations since Guatemala supported the creation of the State of Israel. One of the most relevant topics was the return of the Embassy of Guatemala to Jerusalem."

"I inform you that I have given instructions to the Chancellor [Foreign Minister] to initiate the process to make it possible. God bless you.:

Kudos to Guatemala for refusing to be intimidated by the PA, by the UN, by the overwhelming number of other countries, large and small, too scared to stand up for Israel and Jerusalem.

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Russia in Syria for Another 49Yrs
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Duma is the Russian parliament. Yesterday Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a resolution to the Duma and it passed hands down.

The Duma extended the Russian lease on their naval base in Syria for another 49 years.

The ramifications of that resolution are far reaching. Russia will be permitted to remain in Syria as a military force for decades. The resolution even enumerated the types of vessels that could be in port. It permits nuclear powered ships and subs.

The agreement was hammered out between Putin and Syrian president Bashar Assad.

In the end, it just needed to be ratified by the Duma.

All this is important. But even more importantly, this agreement shows that Putin and, by extension, Russia believe the person who makes decisions for the present and the future in Syria is Putin.

And it seems that Assad agrees.

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UN General Assembly Votes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The UN is an institution that provides some essential services to needy people all over the world. It is also an institution fraught with problems.

The goings on in the General Assembly is a classic example. There are 193 member nations and 2 permanent observers in the GA. Of those, there are only about 15 real democracies and another 50 flawed democracies. The rest are authoritarian, autocratic regimes that include monarchies and dictatorships.

The decision by the General Assembly to vote on acknowledging Israel as the capital of Israel is a direct attack against the United States.

The US is correct to be insulted and it is understandable to want to "take names." There is no reason for the US to support countries that choose to publicly teach the United States a lesson.

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Abbas Visits Saudi King
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with the King and the Crown Prince.

Abbas was summoned by the Saudis to discuss President Trump's Jerusalem announcement. There is no way to know what went on in the meeting. But it is safe to say that the Saudis were there to give support and guidance. Most importantly, the Saudis probably spoke of their own proposal - the one which discusses Jerusalem.

The Saudi proposal suggests that Abu Dis, a village next to Jerusalem, become the capital of the Palestinian State.

Abu Dis is in Area B which is under Palestinian political control and Israeli military control. It is both in Jerusalem and not in Jerusalem at the same time. It is in Abu Dis that Arafat began building his parliament building.

The Saudis are going to give Abbas the coverage and protection he needs to start accepting these proposals and so as not to lose face with his own people back home in the West Bank.

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Miss Iraq & Miss Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 20,2017

I've Been Thinking:

It all started with a selfie at a Miss Universe competition. Miss Israel and Miss Iraq took a selfie during the pageant. The caption under their photo was about peace.

The picture went viral. And then Arabs around the world - especially in Iraq, went crazy. Miss Iraq's family has been threatened and they have escaped to the United States.

Miss Iraq tried to explain that she was not condoning Israel's actions or in any way abandoning the Palestinians.

Miss Iraq also posed in a bikini - that was another major problem.

Miss Israel and Miss Iraq continue to interact with each other.

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Turkey to Open East Jerusalem Embassy for Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, while delivering a speech, Turkish President Erdogan announced that he wants to open his embassy in East Jerusalem as a way to emphasize that Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine.

Erdogan's comments are a direct response to US President Trump's announcement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. The announcement comes only days after Erdogan hosted a summit of 58 Muslim nations who condemned the Trump announcement.

So what does it really mean? Erdogan said that East Jerusalem already has a Turkish consulate general in East Jerusalem that is staffed by an ambassador. It should be easy to transition the office from a consulate to an embassy.

Erdogan said: "God willing, the day is close when officially, with God's
permission, we will open our embassy there."

Also yesterday, Iran issued a statement announcing that they have invited Palestinian President Abbas to visit later this week. Abbas' office denies that he received an invitation. Iran is trying hard to be a uniting force for Islam. At this point, Abbas is queasy about getting involved with Iran.


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Church Bombing in Pakistan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier today a double suicide attack in a church in Pakistan killed 8 people and wounded 42. The numbers will continue to climb.

The BethEl Memorial Methodist Church was packed with nearly 400 people as services began. 2 suicide bombers entered the church and began shooting indiscriminately.

No one has yet to claim responsibility. Given the situation, the perpetrators were probably a branch of the Taliban in Pakistan called Jamaat ul Ahrar. But it could also be an ISIS group.

Pakistan is home to 3.5 - 4 million Christians of the total 200 million citizen population. They compose about 1.6 percent of the population.

Attacks against Christians are becoming more and more common - not just in Pakistan but throughout the world, especially the Islamic world.

More attention needs to be focused on these attacks. World leaders need to be influenced, even forces, to take the proper and necessary steps to protect their Christian populations.


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US Shoots Flares at 2 Russian SU-35s
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Two Russian fighter jet SU-25's crossed the de-confliction line - they crossed over into the section of the Euphrates River in Syria that has been designated the US side. They crossed back and forth several times.

The US warned the Russians to stop what they were doing, but they were ignored. Finally, the US launched F-22's to escort the Russian planes back over the Euphrates. The US fighter jets also shot flares at the Russian jets.

The incident was confirmed by US military leadership. The source also confirmed that a Russia SU -35 was also present. The entire episode only took a few minutes.

These conflicts provide important back-stories to the interplay between Russia and the United States in the political arena.

Tensions between Russia and the United States continue to ebb and flow.

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Muslim States Try to Take a Stand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, in Istanbul, Turkish President Erdogan hosted a conference of the Organization of Islamic Countries.

57 Muslims countries came to the conference that was hailed as the "Extraordinary Session of the OIC." The purpose of the summit was to counter US President Donald Trump's announcement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.

This summit denounced the Trump announcement as: "irresponsible, illegal and unilateral." The group said that the announcement was "null and void legally" and an attack on the rights of the Palestinians.

They participants said that President Trump actions are: "deliberate sabotage of all efforts to achieve peace, feeds extremism and terrorism and threatens global peace and security."

Sounds like pretty ominous responses - but in the end, all these statements by the OIC will amount to a big nothing.


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Muslim States Try to Take a Stand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, in Istanbul, Turkish President Erdogan hosted a conference of the Organization of Islamic Countries.

57 Muslims countries came to the conference that was hailed as the "Extraordinary Session of the OIC." The purpose of the summit was to counter US President Donald Trump's announcement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.

This summit denounced the Trump announcement as: "irresponsible, illegal and unilateral." The group said that the announcement was "null and void legally" and an attack on the rights of the Palestinians.

They participants said that President Trump actions are: "deliberate sabotage of all efforts to achieve peace, feeds extremism and terrorism and threatens global peace and security."

Sounds like pretty ominous responses - but in the end, all these statements by the OIC will amount to a big nothing.


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Israel Has New Tech to Discover Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Ever wonder how Israel discovered not one but two terror tunnels crossing from Gaza into their sovereign land? The tunnels opened up well within Israel and were designed to enable Hamas and Islamic Jihad access in attacking Israelis and kidnapping Israeli soldiers.

Israel discovered the tunnels by using their new very unique technology. The system is called "the lab."

The lab harnesses human intelligence, scientific brain power, computers and other machinery and guides users to uncover tunnels. The lab uses an algorithm that literally takes all the guess work out of finding tunnels.

This is the first time In history that a mechanism has been developed to discover tunnels. It is pure math and science. In other words, the lab actually has done the impossible - it finds something that until now was undetectable.

Hamas is dumbfounded. . The lab is top secret. But it is certainly working. This new defense, when applied in full operation, will effectively protect Israel and destroy one of Hamas' most effective and aggressive weapons. There is no reason it cannot be used to discover Hezbollah's tunnels, too.

Hamas may be forced to prematurely use their incomplete tunnels to attack Israel before the tunnels are discovered. It is a risk Israel faces, but an unlikely one. Hamas does not want to escalate tensions with Israel at this time. But neither can they afford to just loose their investment in their tunnels. It is an issue of pride as well as money.

Given the effectiveness of the lab, Hamas will have to either ratchet up their tunnel use or throw in the towel and abandon it totally.

I predict Hamas will try one more time with their tunnels and then scrap tunnel warfare completely.

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Putin Spent the Day in the Mideast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin spent yesterday in the Middle East. His first stop was Syria where he met with Assad and proclaimed victory over ISIS.

Then he flew to Cairo for important meetings with al Sisi. Along with their discussions, they signed an agreement to resume commercial flights between Russia and Egypt. Russia had cancelled all flights to Egypt after ISIS blew up a Russian charter plane as it reached altitude after taking off from a Sinai airport.

Putin ended the day in Turkey. There, he lashed out at Trump and the United States for the decision to recognize Jerusalem the capital of Israel. Putin said that this decision will derail any chance of a mutual Israel Palestinian agreement.

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Israel Destroys Another Terror Tunnel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel destroyed a terror tunnel this weekend. The tunnel started in Gaza, crossed under the Israeli border and ended up several hundred yards into an Israeli agricultural area.

The tunnel was discovered almost two weeks ago and Israel has been monitoring all activities until they destroyed it. There was no one inside.

This tunnel is the second tunnel in a month that was destroyed. The previous tunnel was built by Islamic Jihad.

There were no weapons in the tunnel and it was destroyed very differently than others. It was not hit by missiles from the air but collapsed by ground equipment.

It appears that Hamas was aware that the tunnel was discovered because there was no real usage of the tunnel during the time that it was being monitored.

Only minutes before Israel destroyed the tunnel, Hamas made an announcement that Israel would pay a heavy price for their actions. The Hamas message said that Israel will soon be taught a lesson.

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Putin To Visit Egypt Ahead of Pence
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been said about US Vice President Mike Pence's upcoming trip to the Middle East. President Trump mentioned it in his speech about
Jerusalem. Some Palestinians have proclaimed that the US VP is not welcome. Some have said that his meetings with Palestinian have been cancelled.

But here is a big surprise --- on Monday Vladimir Putin will visit Egypt for the day. He will meet with Egyptian President al Sisi. This is happening just days before US VP Pence will in Cairo.

Russia and Egypt just signed an agreement. The deal says that Russia will provide new fighter jets to outfit the Egyptian air force.

This agreement is significant in so many ways. Upgrading the Egyptian air force with Russian planes is a watershed. It brings Russia back in to the game. The original Egyptian air force is MiG based. So these new planes will augment the already Russia planes Egypt uses.

Putin and Sisi will discuss all the issues plaguing the Middle East especially ISIS and Syria.

This Putin visit will steal the thunder from Pence's visit.

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Trump on Jerusalem -- Some Agreed
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

He did it. Yesterday US President Trump announced that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Much of media focus immediately following the announcement centered on the negative including the potential negative reaction to the announcement.

They covered the threat of violence, days of rage, an act of war, unilateral steps by the United States that might damage the status of Jerusalem.

But there were also some very positive reactions to the announcement - and not just from Israel and lovers of Israel.

Kudos to the Philippines and the Czech Republic who decided to join the United States in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital city.

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Trump Announces Jerusalem is the Capital
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump is threading the needle by announcing that the United States sees Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

It is actually not a real change at all. A US law, stating that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, has been around since 1995. It is called the Jerusalem Embassy Act of October 1995 and it passed by a vote of 93-5 in the Senate and 374 - 37 in Congress.

Fear of insulting the Arab and Muslim world has motivated US policy on Jerusalem for decades. It appears that President Trump is the first president in decades not to be afraid of ruffling these feathers.

President Trump is taking a calculated risk. There will be some flairs of displeasure but they will only be blips on the radar.

Trump is merely testing the waters by making the announcement. He is not moving the embassy. He is actually signing the waiver that has been signed every six months by every president before him since Bill Clinton.

If things go well, however, the embassy may indeed be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

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Egypt Hitting Back at ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt killed 5 ISIS terrorists in a shootout yesterday. In follow-up raids the Egyptians arrested 6 other terrorists. They also confiscated bomb materials and weapons.

Egypt has increased the pressure on ISIS. The Egyptians are dedicating significant resources, in multiple fronts, to find, capture, try and at times even kill ISIS terrorists. They need the momentum to change in their favor - despite all their efforts, ISIS is winning.

Thus far in Egypt ISIS has had the upper hand. They have successfully been striking, at will, across the country. Egypt recognizes the importance of confronting ISIS. They are one of the few countries taking the threat to their very existence seriously. They are also front and center as targets of ISIS.

Few countries have suffered as much as Egypt.

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PA Editor Says No Difference Btw Israel and DC
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Nasser Laham, the editor-in-chief of Ma'an, one of the most important Palestinian media outlets, said that the Jews control Washington and that there is no difference between Washington and Tel Aviv.

"The Jews rule in Washington and the Jews rule in Tel Aviv. What's the difference?" said Ma'an News Agency editor-in-chief Nasser Laham on Saturday in a television interview on his agency's own channel,

"It's the same if we negotiate with them (i.e. Jews) in Washington or in Tel Aviv. It's the same framework."

In his diatribe Laham actually mentioned Martin Indyk, the former US ambassador to Tel Aviv, saying that Indyk has more control over Washington now that he is a private citizen than he did when he was ambassador.

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Saudis Attack Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi anti-Iranian rhetoric is on the upswing. This time, Saudi Arabia has taken aim at Hezbollah, the Iranian backed Shiite militia in Lebanon.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir said that Hezbollah has hijacked Lebanon and Hezbollah must be disarmed. He said that as long as Hezbollah controls a huge militia Lebanon will be unable to be productive and creative.

"Lebanon will only survive or prosper if you disarm Hezbollah." Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told a conference in Italy. "As long as you have an armed militia, you will not have peace in Lebanon."

"Since 1979, the Iranians have literally got away with murder in our region, and this has to stop."

Iran has used its minions to wreak havoc on the region - and one of their very loyal proxies is Hezbollah. Part of the Iranian agenda is to destabilize Sunni areas and then move in and stabilize them and institute Shiite control.

Obviously, Iran's objectives are in direct conflict with the vital interests of Saudi Arabia.

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Iran Sending Ships to Gulf of Mexico
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is sending warships to the Gulf of Mexico. They Iranians have issued this threat before and are bent on being at the doorstep of the US.

Over the past few years Iran has sent 47 flotillas in to international waters. One expedition took place last year when the Iranians successfully launched a fleet of naval ships into the Atlantic by sailing around the Horn of Africa. Now they are trying again.

"Our fleet of warships will be sent to the Atlantic Ocean in the near future and will visit one of the friendly states in South America and the Gulf of Mexico," Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi was recently quoted by Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The Iranians want to expand their influence across the world and that includes taking a much larger role in sea power.

Naval commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that "sailing in open waters between Europe and the Americas should be the navy's goal, which will be realized in the near future."

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Hamas Delays Gaza Turnover
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

December 1 is the scheduled day for the transition of power in Gaza.

On that day, Hamas is supposed to give over the reins of leadership to Fatah which controls the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the West Bank. That means Fatah will take control of security. Taking responsibility for security involves disarming Hamas.

This is a big bone of contention.

On the one hand, Hamas does not want to disarm and on the other, Fatah cannot permit Hamas to be an independent military force in Gaza.

Early this morning Hamas asked to delay implementation of the agreement. In a message to the press they wrote: "Hamas and Fatah call on Egypt to postpone the transfer of power (in Gaza) from December 1 to December 10 to finalize certain provisions."

We'll see what happens. It's hard to imagine that what could not be accomplished by December 1st can be accomplished only 10 days later.

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Lebanon Claims Gal Gadot Mossad Agent
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This is a story for the history books.

A famous Lebanese actor Zaid Itani was arrested for spying for Israel and being in contact with a Mossad agent named Colette Vianfi. The story has been splashed all over the Lebanese press.

It all sounds like a Ken Follett spy novel.

Itani claims that Vianfi is Gal Gadot. Gal Gadot is Wonder Woman - an Israeli model, now actress, whose face and body is known worldwide.

It is hard to tell if the Lebanese media is taking this seriously. They are covering it like they cover all other conspiracy ideas about Israel and the Mossad. But they need to know - especially the editorial leadership, that there is no possible way in the world that Gal Gadot is a spy for the Mossad.

Then again, some people actually might believe that Gal Gadot is a real Wonder Woman.

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Uber Shut Down in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Uber is no longer permitted to operate in Israel.

There are two reasons for that decision.

The first is that in order to take money from a passenger, the driver must have a taxi license - what is sometimes called a hack's license. Uber drivers do not have that license.

The second is that Uber does not insure their drivers and hence, they are endangering their passengers.

The judge hearing the case ruled that Uber may not drive a single passenger one single meter more in Israel. Uber has been irresponsible.

The judge also let the cab drivers association, which brought the suit against Uber, a tongue lashing. He said that change and progress is inevitable and the old taxi system needs to catch up and recognize the new ways.

The old time association will not succeed by simply stopping progress through suing.

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ISIS Warned Egyptian Town
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The town in which ISIS murdered 305 innocent people as they gathered in their Sufi mosque was warned in advance not to commemorate Mohammed's birth in their Sufi tradition.

ISIS views Sufi Muslims as heretics. The Sufi have a different view of Islam than does ISIS. The Sufi embrace a mystical aspect of Islam. In the eyes of ISIS any heretic should be executed - that includes Sufi Muslims.

The very same week of the attack, ISIS warned the Sufi Muslims in the town to stop collaborating with the Egyptian army.

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Arab Anti Terror Alliance
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia hosted an Anti-Terror Alliance in Riyadh. While all the members of the Alliance were not in attendance, 41 members of Muslim and Arab states did attend.

The Alliance was created and chaired by the Saudi Crown Prince who doubles as defense minister.

This was, in essence, a gathering of defense ministers and other intelligence and military leaders from the entire region.

The Saudi Crown Prince made it clear that terror has become a scourge on Islam, that terror is destroying the beauty of Islam. The Crown Prince said that: "The biggest danger of this terrorism and extremism is the tarnishing of the reputation of our beloved religion ... We will not allow this to happen ... Today we start the pursuit of terrorism and we see its defeat in many facets around, the world especially in Muslim countries .. We will continue to fight it until we see its defeat."

He said: "This is indeed a painful event and it is a recurrent and strong reminder [of] the dangers of this terrorism."

It is very important for us all to recognize that Muslim and Arab leadership has begun organizing in order to confront terror both inside the Muslim world and outside.

This Alliance is a significant step forward. Now we need to see if any real concrete coordination and activity emerges.

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ISIS Beheads 15 of their Own
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS beheaded 15 of its own members yesterday in Afghanistan.

A rash of internal fighting and disagreements has been plaguing ISIS and the Taliban. The exact relationship between the two groups is hard to configure. At times they work with each other, at other times they are at each other's throats.

This incident seems not to have been Taliban related, it was pure ISIS on ISIS violence. The area in which the beheading took place is known to be controlled by particularly brutal ISIS leadership.

Infighting with ISIS is frowned upon. Those who dare to question or challenge are often publicly murdered.

Not much is known about the details of the beheadings. We can only speculate.

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Saudi Officials Visit Synagogue
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Here's an exclusive from the Jerusalem Post.

This week two Saudi senior officials visited the Great Synagogue of Paris. One official was the former justice minister, the other the former education minister who is now the Saudi ambassador to France.

This was their first ever trip to a synagogue for both men and the first time an official Saudi personality has ever been welcomed to a great synagogue.

The pictures of the event show the Saudis listening and engaging intently as the Chief Rabbi and Jewish communal leaders spoke.

This could very well be a precursor to better relations between Jews and Saudi Arabia, it might signal a springboard to relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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Important Phone Calls
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

French President Macron spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday. Macron also spoke with Iranian President Rouhani.

According to the French president's office, he spoke to both leaders about the same topic. They discussed the region and they especially discussed Lebanon.

It's pretty obvious that Macron discussed Israel with Iran and Iran with Israel. He is clearly trying to calm tensions in the region.

Also yesterday, US President Trump spoke by phone to Russian President Putin. The obvious topics spoken about during their conversation are fighting terror - especially ISIS, and the role of Iran in Syria.

These conversations between heads of state are encouraging. It looks like there is real progress on the world stage.

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Ancient Torah Scroll in Turkey Confiscated
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Ancient torah scrolls are extremely valuable. They fetch huge sums at auctions. More often than not, their "acquisition" is commissioned and the scrolls fall into the hands of collectors. That is a fancy way of saying that rare torahs are often commissioned to be stolen.

The provenance of torah scrolls can be tricky.

Yesterday Turkey confiscated a 700 year old torah scroll which was being auctioned in Mugla Province. The opening bid was supposed to be $1.9 million.

Turkish authorities did the right thing. Rather than letting the ancient scroll go to the highest bidder, they took it to a museum for evaluation.

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Israel's Contacts w Muslim Countries
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's contact with Muslim countries has been an open secret.
Yes, there are many countries that Israeli leaders and diplomats have interactions with. They share strategy and intelligence on terror and they cooperate against common enemies.

But seldom if ever is there any public acknowledgment of the relations and their productivity.

Until now. Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz spoke on Israeli Army Radio and admitted that the relationships are active. He said: "We have ties that are indeed partly covert with many Muslim and Arab countries, and usually (we are) the party that is not ashamed."

"It's the other side that is interested in keeping the ties quiet. With us, usually, there is no problem, but we respect the other side's wish, when ties are developing, whether it's with Saudi Arabia or with other Arab countries or other Muslim countries, and there is much more ... (but) we keep it secret."

So much for keeping it secret. And that is why it is called an open secret.

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Farrakhan: There are Some Good Jews
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Louis Farrakhan, the leader of a group he created and called the Nation of Islam - a personality cult revolving around Farrakhan and based on a combination of Christian and Muslim ideas, gave a speech recently in DC.

In his speech Farrakhan actually said that there are some good Jews.
Farrakhan, born Louis Wolcott, is one of the most boisterous anti-Semites in the US. He regularly preaches pure hatred against Jews.

In the hall, Farrakhan delivered his speech while standing next to a giant poster that appeared to be hawking a new book about how Jews control the world. The poster read, "The Secret Relationship Between Blacks and Jews, Volume II: How Jews Gained Control of the Black American Economy."

He said "There are righteous Jews, good Jews, Jews that want to practice the teachings of the prophets," ... "But then there are others who don't wish to practice and it is they that hated Reverend Jackson's desire to be president."

This is not a significant change of attitude or doctrine, just a new line by a very gifted and dangerous speaker and entertainer.

Farrakhan is now 84 years old. He spoke for over two hours about his ideas on conspiracy and race. He is still strong and powerful and for his many followers, his ideas still resonate loudly.

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German Court Bans Israelis from Kuwaiti Air
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A federal district court in Frankfurt ruled that Kuwaiti Air was permitted to ban Israelis from their flights.

The case in point centered on an Israeli flying from Frankfurt to Bangkok on Kuwaiti Air. The flight would touch down in Kuwait City and then continue on to Bangkok.

The airline argued that they would be subject to fines and even imprisonment for permitting an Israeli to board. The Israeli argued that it was discrimination based on the fact that he was Israeli.

The court ruled that German law does not recognize discrimination based on nationality only by race, religion and ethnicity.

French, Swiss and US courts disagree. They held that the situation was indeed discriminatory and issued policies to airlines that they cannot fly out of their airports if they practice discrimination - regardless of local laws.

In this case the mayor of Frankfurt, Uwe Becker, condemned the ruling saying, "An airline that practices discrimination and anti-Semitism by refusing to fly Israeli passengers should not be allowed to take off or land in Frankfurt."
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Iran & Hezbollah Invent History
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Rouhani said on Iranian national TV that Saudi Arabia begged Israel to attack Lebanon.

He said: "It is very reprehensible and shameful for a Muslim country in the region to beg the Zionist regime to bomb the people of Lebanon."

He continued by attacking Crown Prince bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. He said: "It is unprecedented in history for a Muslim country to take such measures, and this indicates the immaturity of the individuals, who have come to power in those countries."

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah continued on the same theme saying: "Saudi Arabia is inciting Israel to launch a war against Lebanon. I speak here about facts, not analysis. Saudi Arabia is ready to pay tens of billions of dollars to Israel for that." Nasrallah also said that Israel is helping Al Nusra and Al Qaeda in Syria. He claimed that Israel was trying to create a civil war in Lebanon. He said "Israel is trying to incite a civil war."

Iran and Hezbollah are making up facts in order to convince their populations and continue their thesis. That should be obvious to all.

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Russia Says US Protecting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Russia and the US are emerging. In fact, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently attacked the US claiming that the United States is providing cover for ISIS.

As part of their attack against the United States, Russia is claiming that the US is only pretending to fight ISIS. Specifically, they are saying that the US air force stopped Russian strikes against the ISIS town of Albu Kamal in Syria.

The Ministry statement said: "These facts are conclusive evidence that the United States, while imitating an uncompromising fight against international terrorism for the global community, in fact provides cover for Islamic State units."

Obviously, the Russians are exaggerating.

The US is taking a stand and will not permit attacks against innocent civilians. This is the major difference between the United States and Russia.

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Israel Refuses Entry to BDS Politicians
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Interior Minister Aryeh Deri has accepted the recommendations of Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan. Israel will not permit entry to a group of BDS supporting politicians from the EU parliament and BDS supporting mayors.

The group of 20, all from France, is scheduled to arrive in Israel in just over a week.

BDS is committed to destroying Israel. With this decision, Israel is exercising its right to protect itself. Opening the doors and allowing access to enemies who will use the trip to further their destructive goals is antithetical to the values of Israeli tourism.

These politicians will use media and politics as their bully pulpit and do everything they can to convince all who will listen that Israel is evil.

Good for Israel.

Wise decision.

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Increased Tensions in MIddle East
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Increased tensions in the Middle East can be explained by the division between Saudi Arabia and Iran - in other words, tensions continue to
rise between Sunnis and Shiites.

The Saudis have demanded an Arab League emergency meeting to convene this week. They claim that Iran is intervening, once across, in the region ... this time in Lebanon, in Syria, in Bahrain and in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia claims that, through proxies, Iranians have attacked their interests and are destabilizing the region.

The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri is a prime example. Hariri believes his life is in danger and is now living Saudi Arabia. On Sunday he appeared live on Future TV and said he was a free man and will return to Lebanon very soon.

Hariri said he resigned to save the country from imminent danger. He didn't elaborate.

We will see what happens next.

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Bahrain Pipeline hit by Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An oil pipeline in Bahrain, located just outside the capital, was the target of a terrorist attack yesterday.
Bahraini officials blamed Iran.

That should be no surprise. Bahrain's Minister of Interior Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, said the attack was "the latest example of a terrorist act performed by terrorists in direct contact with and under instruction from Iran."

Iran rejects the insinuation and claims that they had nothing to do the explosion.

About 85% of Bahrain is Shiite and the Iranians have supported their revolt against the minority Sunni leadership.

In 2011 there was an attempt to overthrow the Bahraini government that was sponsored by Iran. Since then, many revolutionary cells have been uncovered and all have been traced back to Iran.

It makes sense that, despite the protestations, Iran is behind the attack.

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Syria Claims Victory Over ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday the Syrian army announced their total victory over ISIS. The announcement is premature - but important.

There is still fighting in the area near the Syrian / Iraqi border, especially near the town of Albu Kamal, one of the first ISIS centers now one of the last.

The Syrian announcement is especially important on two levels. The first is that the Syrian army decidedly chose to release this statement at all. According to the statement about ISIS, or Daesh as the Syrians refers to them, this is "the fall of the terrorist Daesh organization's project in the region."

The second reason this is important is because there are reports, even if they are only rumors, that Abu Bakr al Baghdadi is in Albu Kamal.
There are reliable reports of high level ISIS prisoners but no comment or confirmation about Baghdadi.

The Syrian military is both very public and very secretive. They send out exaggerated, hyperbolic, incomplete, announcements that neither relate the obvious nor confirm it.

If Baghdadi is alive, he is on the run or in hiding. If he is holed up near Albu Kamal, or in Syrian custody this is very significant for ISIS. It could mean that ISIS / Daesh, is nearing the end.

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PA Says Hamas Must Disarm
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The nitty gritty of the agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is where it all may fall apart.

Primary among all the issues is that Hamas must disarm and the PA must take complete control over security, safety and police in Gaza. Hamas has said "no way."

PA national police chief Hazem Atallah has said that disarming Hamas is non- negotiable. He said "It is impossible. How can I do security when there are all these rockets and guns? Is this possible? It doesn't work."

The agreement is bound to unravel. This is one of many examples of how it is falling apart.

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Morocco Retracts Israel Judo Team's Visas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco is supposed to host The World Judo Championships on November 9-10, 2017.

Yesterday the Moroccans retracted the visas that were granted to the Israeli team. As a result, Israel was unable to depart from Tel Aviv. When the International Judo Federation discovered what was happening they demanded that Morocco grant the visas or, they said, they will cancel the entire championship.

This debacle follows on the heels of the Abu Dhabi judo championship when Israeli athletes were not permitted to wear their state emblem or play their national anthem.

This isn't a first time move against Israel by Morocco. In 2015 something similar happened when the Israeli judo team was arrested at the Rabat airport. They were released, finally, after being detained at the airport for 8 hours.

At that point the International Judo Federation intervened and reminded Morocco that a condition for hosting the event was that they host Israel. But here we go again.

We will continue to monitor these events.

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Egypt To West Dips: Out of Our Internal Matters
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

As predicted, Western nations have begun to criticize Egypt and their human rights actions against dissenters.

Egypt is aggressively striking out at ISIS and other anti-government groups. They are identifying people and movements that are working against the establishment.

In response there has been some serious Western blow-black.

So Egypt's foreign ministry summoned the ambassadors from Canada, Germany, Italy, Great Britain and The Netherlands and told them that they are interfering in internal Egyptian politics. He informed them that their actions violate the dictates of foreign policy procedures and diplomacy.

This story isn't over.

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US Strikes Somalia
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

US fighter jets struck an ISIS camp in Somalia on Friday. This is an important shift in policy.

The United States is now going after ISIS in places like Somalia, a place where ISIS fighters are re-organizing and planning their next stage of development as they leave Syria and Iraq.

The US Strategic command in Africa released the following statement: "U.S. forces will continue to use all authorized and appropriate measures to protect Americans and to disable terrorist threats."

It is possible that the air attack against ISIS was a direct response to the ISIS attack in NYC.

The United States has been upping pressure on ISIS in Syria and Iraq and now they are expanding to other areas.

In May a Navy Seal was killed during an operation against ISIS in Somalia. All total there are about 300 US troops in Somalia functioning as advisors to the Somali army as they try to fight ISIS.

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Dutch Supplied Nuke Tech to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Dutch minister of defense sent a very troubling report to the lower house of parliament yesterday.

He said that their technology was being used by nefarious countries to produce nuclear weapons against their policy and against their laws.

This was, for a long time, an unpublished secret. But now that Dutch intelligence officially disclosed the matter, they must act on it.
The defense minister wrote "Dutch technology was used in programs of weapons of mass destruction and means of delivery in Iran, Pakistan or Syria."

Technology was supplied by Dutch businesses, in violation of Dutch law, who exported the technology to Iran Pakistan and Syria.
The Dutch must investigate, shut down, fine and imprison those business leaders. These businesses made a conscious decision to make money by endangering the world and they should be brought to justice.

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Iran Calls US Their #1 Enemy
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is picking up its rhetoric toward the United States. The Supreme Leader has called the US their number one enemy.

On Thursday in a speech broadcast on Iranian TV the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said: "America's hostility is towards the Iranian nation ... America is the number one enemy of our nation ... We will never accept their bullying over the nuclear deal."

This is coming on the heels of Iran's President Rouhani meeting with Russian President Putin and their collaborating on how to stymie US activity and operations in the Middle East.

It is never easy when an arch enemy goes public --- but rhetoric can sometime become the foundation of policy. I think that is what is happening right now in Iran.

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Putin Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran yesterday.

Russian TV reported that the objective of the meeting is to discuss regional issues, especially Syria. Russian and Iranian leadership will speak about the nuclear deal and economic issues, even trade between Russia and Iran.

Most importantly, they will speak about the conflict between Iran and the United States.

Russia and Iran have many common interests. They both back Assad of Syria while the US and others in the region, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, support ousting Assad and groups trying to overthrow the Syrian president.

Putin is once again showing his mastery in the use of power and politics. Going to Iran is a direct poke in the eye of the United States. It means that Russia has control and influence that the US cannot even dream of achieving.

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Terror in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Terror struck New York City just hundreds of yards away from Ground Zero.

Eight people were murdered and eleven others injured by an Islamic terrorist from Uzbekistan named Sayfullo Saipov.

There should be no doubt that this was terror.

Saipov shouted the Takbir, the Muslim call "Allahu Ahkbar", which means Allah is better or Allah is best.

Saipov followed the exact directions - down to leaving a note in the vehicle - outlined by ISIS in an article published online.

Islamic terrorists are set on murdering as many innocent Americans as possible.

Sayfullo Saipov is not a lone wolf. The expression isolates the terrorist. In this day and age, no terrorist is isolated. They are all connected through the new media.

More details will emerge, but we know a lot already.

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World Court Against Israel's Female Bias
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is being brought before the United Nations Human Rights Council on charges of inequality regarding the status of women.

The focus is on several issues including inequality at the Western Wall and the fact that there are certain buses that are unisex and others that are separate sex.

The Human Rights Council is asking about the treatment of women in hospitals, in clinics and even in cemeteries.

In essence these are attacks on the religious and ultra religious communities of Israel and the internal strictures which define their lives and their lives only.

Israel has dispatched a team from the defense ministry to put forth their defense. It is shocking that Israel is even engaging these claims. Regardless of how the discussions go it will have no impact on Israel or on everyday life.

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Iran Pres Turned Down Meet w Trump
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian press published a story about US President Trump attempting to have a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.

According to the story, the invite was rebuffed by the Iranian leader. The Press reported that "an intention was expressed by the American side that was not approved by President Rouhani."

One of the great part of the yearly United Nations General Assembly in New York is the many meetings happen behind closed doors. Most of those meetings are never made public - secret meetings between leaders have real value.

In 2013, as Rouhani was on his way to the airport, President Obama made a call to him in his car on his cell phone. Rouhani accepted the call.

That was the last time any high level conversation took place between the United States and Iran.


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Bubbe Videos Are Funny
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The American Friends of Hebrew University created a series of 90 second videos centered around a traditional Jewish Bubbe, or grandmother, named Judith Cohen.

The videos are hilarious. They advertize a series of fake phone app -- one is about remembering to call your Bubbe, a second is to remind you to put on a jacket when it's cold outside and a third finds a mentsch as a match for your granddaughter.

Watch Bubbe ask you to call.

The video shorts went viral with tens of thousands of views. They are so clever that many people actually thought they were real apps and tried to buy them. In actually, they are a gentle lampooning of apps, Bubbes and grandchildren and a brilliant fundraising gimmick.

How does it help Hebrew University? It brings the name of the university to people's attention. It gets people to see and hear the name and associate the university with high tech and tech innovation.


The videos which are appropriate for all ages, clearly target a younger generation, one that watches Youtube and does not receive traditional, old fashioned, fundraising mass mailing solicitations, letters and brochures in the mail. The younger generation does not give on the same level as their parents, but these videos will make them chuckle and then maybe, reach out and donate in a "thanks for the laugh" moment.

Parents and grandparents will do more than chuckle, they will belly laugh at these videos and, hopefully, be moved to donate on an equivalent basis.

The American Friends of Hebrew University identified an emotional link, one which is real and touching and funny. The message was successful. The question is whether the campaign will raise the needed funds.

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Russia Seals Arms Deal w Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has made a big move in the area of arms trade in the Middle East.

Qatar's defense minister signed a defense deal with his Russian counterpart. The deal, which was signed yesterday in Doha, the capital of Qatar, is entitled the Agreement on Military Technical Cooperation. It is based on the promise by Qatar to buy all kinds of Russian weapons.

This deal can be worth billions per year.

What makes this especially critical is the fact that in 2015 Qatar was ranked 1st in the world of any country who bought US weapons.

The rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has a spill over - and that might just be the reason for the cozy new relationship Qatar is building with Russia.

The United States tried to smooth over the differences, but to no avail. The cost to the United States of this rift can be measured in the billions of dollars in weapons sales they are set to lose.

This is a total shift by Qatar towards Russia and a move away from the US.

Military equipment is not interchangeable. Qatar will be replacing their entire military infrastructure with Russian equipment.


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Pence to Visit Israel & Egypt in Dec
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Vice President Mike Pence announced yesterday that he will visit the Middle East in late December. He will visit Egypt and Israel.

Pence made the announcement at a dinner dedicated to raising money and awareness in order to save and protect Christians in the Middle East.

The vice president also announced that the United States will deliver money to protect Christians and other minorities directly. They US will redirect money that has, in the past, been sent to the United Nations and instead give it directly to the communities in need.

Pence said: "One of the messages that I will bring on the president's behalf to leaders across the region is that now is the time to bring an end to the persecution of Christians and all religious minorities."

He said: "From this day forward, America will provide support directly to persecuted communities through USAID." "Our fellow Christians and all who are persecuted in the Middle East should not have to rely on multinational institutions when America can help them directly."

It's a welcome move. Christians in the Middle East desperately need help.

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MD Gov Says No to BDS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland signed an executive order that will not grant any state contracts to businesses which subscribe to boycotting Israel.

Hogan is also asking for state pension investors to move away from any company that supports BDS.

BDS is gaining strength --- but the counter balance - the number of people who realize how wrong and immoral the BDS movement is, has grown.

Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland is a perfect example.

Hogan said: "Boycotts based on religion, national origin, ethnicity or place of residence are discriminatory, and contracting with businesses that practice discrimination would make the state a passive participant in private sector commercial discrimination."

Kudos to Governor Hogan.


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Rouhani Says Iran Expanding Role in Region
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday that Iran is stronger than ever and that they are the most important power-house in the Middle East. Rouhani asserted that Iran is more influential today than ever before in their history.

"The greatness of the nation of Iran in the region is more than at any other time." He added that Iran is the most significant player in the entire region. The speech, which was broadcast live, emphasized Iran's role in the Middle East.

Rouhani said: "In Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, northern Africa, in the Persian Gulf region -- where can action be taken without Iran?"

This is just another example of Iran assuming an important role in the region. Iran will continue to step forward. They have a plan and, as of now, it is working.

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Egypt Attacked by ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt was attacked by ISIS over the weekend. It was one of the worst attacks in the history of Egypt.

Fifty-four Egyptian security people were murdered in the south west section of Cairo.

We do not know the details. AP reported that in the course of 48 hours, 54 Egyptian police were killed. Officially, however, the Egyptian government announcement said that only 16 policemen were killed.

Egyptian president al-Sisi said: "Egypt will continue its confrontation against terrorism and those financing and standing behind it, with strength, decisiveness and efficiency, until it's curbed."

We will uncover the details of what happened soon enough.

Know this: Al Sisi will exact revenge. ISIS will soon be the target of Egyptian justice.

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No Israeli Emblems in Judo Match
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will participate in the Abu Dhabi International Grandslam Judo Championship later this week.

Israel will be sporting a team of 12 athletes in an Arab country.

Sounds like good news? Nope!

For the second time, the organizers of the competition have accepted
Abu Dhabi's demand that Israel not show her flag, emblem or anthem.
There can be no visual symbol that Israeli athletes are present or competing - and Allah forbid if they dare to win.

If the Israeli team does earn a medal, the International Judo Federation flag will be flown.

Israel has protested and continues to protest.
These sporting events are supposed to be above politics, not increase divisiveness, prejudice and hate.

Israeli bronze Olympian Ori Sasson will compete. Sagi Muki who is the European champion will attend as part of the team. Israel's team will also include three additional world bronze medalists. The chances of winning a medal and even taking a gold is very high.

Should that happen it will be an embarrassment not only for the Judo Federation and to Abu Dhabi, as well.

Let Israel compete like everyone else- let Israel compete using her own emblems.

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HAMAS Will Not Disarm
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has signed an agreement with the Palestinian Authority.

The United States and Israel both clearly assert that Hamas must disarm and recognize Israel in this Palestinian unity agreement.

Hamas says, in essence, no way.

In an official statement Yichya Sinwar, head of Hamas, said: "No one in the universe can disarm us. On the contrary, we will continue to have the power to protect our citizens." Sinwar continued: "No one has the ability to extract from us recognition of the occupation."

Israel has put it simply - the Palestinians must choose peace or choose Hamas.

Hamas has stated their intention equally clearly.
I would call this an impasse.

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Israel Will Feed the Birds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Ministry of Agriculture recently said that they will feed pelicans migrating from Europe to Africa.

Israel will create a feeding zone for the great white pelican.

The reasons are clear.

If Israelis do not feed these birds, the pelicans will pilfer and destroy entire agricultural regions and fisheries. These birds come in and descend and feed on whatever is available.

Israel is on the migration path of the pelican. Pelicans need food. If Israel does not feed them, they will poach anything and everything else that is available.

Everyone is in favor of Israel providing the food. Environmentalist, agriculturalists, farmers and economists support this idea.

Birds feed when they are hungry ... exactly in the place where they fed when they were migrating in the other direction.

Hopefully, this will work.

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Islamists Attack Church & Rob Bank in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt was hit by another Islamic attack yesterday.

A group of about a dozen Islamists attacked a church in the very center of El Arish. Rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) were fired at the police and the Church. 7 people were killed.

The massive Church has been closed for a few months. The government felt that because of the increased attacks against Christians and churches, it was important to close the church and station police outside.

After the Islamists attacked the church they robbed a bank and cleaned it out. They escaped in a pickup truck and a motorcycle heading south.

The victims include 3 guards, 1 soldier and 3 civilians. Another 15 people were injured in the bank.

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Syria Wants Turkey Out
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian foreign ministry has made it clear that the presence of Turkish forces in north western Syria is an act of aggression.

Turkey's response is that they are in Syria because of a deal they made with Russia and Iran in order to help the Syrian rebels fighting ISIS and al Qaeda.

The official Syrian ministry statement said: "Syria condemns in the strongest terms the incursion of units of the Turkish army in Idlib province, which constitutes a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and security of Syrian territory."

The Syrian statement continued by responding to Turkey's obvious counter to their claim. It read: "The Turkish aggression is not tied in any way with the understandings that were reached between the guarantor states in the Astana process, but constitutes a violation of these understandings."

It's not over. Let's see what happens over the next few days.

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ISIS Attacking Egyptian Targets
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Despite the agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, Egypt will not be opening its border with Gaza in both directions.

The opening was meant as a reward. The reason the Egyptians are changing their stance is that, on Sunday, ISIS simultaneously attacked six border crossings killing six soldiers and injured 37 other people.

The terrorists opened fire on the crossings with automatic weapons and mortars. Twenty-four of them were killed.

ISIS is picking up the velocity of their attacks against Egyptian targets. They plan is to stop the PA / Hamas / Egyptian deal. For ISIS the deal means a crackdown on their ability to move and to operate.

Egypt needs to shut down ISIS.

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Russia's Def Min To Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russia Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu will be visiting Israel this week.

Israel's obvious agenda for this meeting is to re-enforce their position that Iran cannot have a position of the Golan Heights - not in Syria and not in Lebanon.

Russia understands Israel's position. Israel will hammer the point home with on-site descriptions and details of the security threats Iran's poses for them.

The question is whether or not Israel will be convincing enough. In the end, will Russia will be convinced enough to assure Israel that Iran will not have a real presence in Syria.

Much is at stake.

If Iran establishes a forward position on Israel's border it would potentially create a situation in which every citizen of Israel would be in range of Iranian weapons 24 hours of every day.

That is a situation which Israel views as intolerable. If Russia does not come through for them, Israel will do it on their own and take direct steps to prevent Iran from endangering its citizens and security.

Those steps would also involve making certain that Hezbollah and Iran are not capable of retaliating against Israel.

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Belgium Pulls out f Palestinian Aid Projects
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Belgium government has pulled their support for two Palestinian projects totaling $3.9 million.

Belgium said that they cannot be party to anything connected to terror. The decision to pull back the funds came after the Palestinians renamed a school to honor the notorious female terrorist named Dahlal Mughrabi.

Mughrabi was part of the horrific 1982 terror attack in that resulted in the murder of 38 Israelis, including 13 children, by kidnapped a bus on the Coastal Road. The attack is known as the "Coastal Road Massacre" in English. In Hebrew it is called the "Bloody Bus Massacre."

Dahlal Mughrabi was killed in the attack. Immediately afterward, she became lionized as a great heroine of the Palestinians. Parks are named after her. Schools are named after her. Even sports competitions are named after her. Her biography is taught in elementary schools.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders called Mughrabi a Palestinian terrorist. He said "Belgium will not allow itself to be associated with the names of terrorists in any way."

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Iran Threatens the US Over Terror Designation
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The US is about to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.

The Guard and their members are the elite of the elite of Iran. They own major industries and they control significant branches of Iranian society. They are the wealthiest and most successful segment within Iran and they wield more power than any group except the Ayatollah himself.

This designation will cut into the Guard's purse.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is threatening a crushing attack against the United States is they are classified as a terror group.

"We are hopeful that the United States does not make this strategic mistake," foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi said. "If they do, Iran's reaction would be firm, decisive and crushing."

The Guard will be hurt if they are designated a terror group. That's a given. The big question is - why has it taken so long for this to happen?!

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Hezbollah Says US Suporting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, said that US activity in Syria is helping ISIS.

Nasrallah made the statement during a TV presentation.

According to Hassan Nasrallah: "The American air force in some areas prevents the Syrian army and its allies from advancing in areas controlled by Islamic State" ... "The Americans are working to hinder the battle against Islamic State."

This is an exaggeration, it is also a mistake

The US is not helping ISIS. But the US is trying to prevent a massacre in Syria.

The only way to do that is to make certain that Syria does not have free reign to murder innocent civilians who are affiliated with ISIS or, more likely, innocents who live in areas that ISIS controls and are terrorized by ISIS.

That is what the US is doing. Nasrallah knows that. He was looking for a sensational headline - and he found it.

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Turkey Cross in to Syria to Clear Idlib
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey has crossed into Syria. They are advancing into the province of Idlib.

The Turkish special-forces convoy, complete with weaponry, were met by pro-Turkish fighters at the border and escorted toward their destination - the city of Idlib.

And then Turkey began bombing Idlib.

Turkish forces are exchanging fire with Islamists groups--- with ISIS and al Qaeda and their affiliates.

The objective is for Turkey to carve out a no-conflict zone in the province of Idlib.

In order to accomplish that goal, the city of Idlib must be cleared of ISIS and be totally in the hands of Turkey.

According to Turkey's forces backed by rebels in Syria, "So far our forces have not entered Idlib."

But that is just a matter of time.

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Iran Bans Woman for Not Wearing Hijab
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

If you were hoping for a new Iran --- forget it.

Here is a perfect example. Dorsa Derakhshani, a female member of the Iranian national chess team was removed from the team for performing an unforgivable violation.

What did she do? In an international competition she refused to wear her hijab- in other words, she refused to wear her head covering during the match.

Since the revolution it is the law in Iran that all women must wear a hijab in public. That is especially the case in situations where the women are symbols of Iran --- in this case, an international chess match.

After being removed from the team Derakhshani left Iran and came to the United States. She has since joined the US women’s chess team and is now competing for the US - without a hijab.

The most interesting part of this story is that it was covered in the ISNA, an official media arm of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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Iran Squeezes Kurds
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Since the recent vote for Kurdish independence, Iran has begun to squeeze the Kurdish region in Iraq.

Almost immediately after the vote, Iran stopped flights to the Kurdish region and now the Iranians have issued an order to stop all trucks going to and from the Kurdish region. No Iranian drivers may deliver or ship or cross the border.

That means no Iranian diesel to the Kurdish area.

It is diesel that powers electric plants and the transportation industry.

The Kurds produce their own oil, but they do not refine it - they export it. Some of their oil was even exported to Iran-- but not any more.

Iraq is also squeezing the Kurds. So are the Turks who are not permitting Kurdish oil exports to pass over their border.

92% of the Kurdish region voted for independence. In other words, every single Kurd voted for independence. The other 8% were Shiite and Sunnis minorities that live in the area who were also permitted to also in the referendum.

The Kurds were aware of the ramifications this vote would have. They tried to mollify the vote by saying that their independence would not go into effect immediately - that the vote was simply symbolic.

The problem is that at this level of foreign affairs, symbols have significance.


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ISIS is Marching Back in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:


We have been hearing about the change in ISIS' momentum, about how ISIS is on the run in Syria and how Syria is taking back cities and towns and regions and ISIS is being pushed out.

Early Sunday ISIS took back a city named Al Qaryatayn which is located in the Homs region, 190 miles from Deir al Zor where the main conflict with ISIS in now taking place.

Al Qaryatayn was taken in a surprise attack.

What is important to note is that there are always back and forths - momentum shifts! Clearly the momentum is in the favor of Assad -- but ISIS is not giving up when it comes to Syria.
ISIS still has a lot of fight in them.

This should be a lesson for us. ISIS will not simply stop because they are defeated. ISIS needs to be completely and totally removed. ISIS needs to be wiped out.

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Putin Visits Turkey Agree on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin visited Turkey where he had a series of face to face with Turkish President Erdogan.

The Russian and Turkish leaders agreed to create and to protect no conflict zones. They also confirmed that Russia will help build a gas pipeline in Turkey. Most important is that Russia agreed to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant

In a joint press conference Putin said "We reconfirm readiness to implement final agreements reached in mid-September in Astana about four de-escalation zones, including the biggest one -- in Idlib."

He continued, calling Erdogan "our friend" in Ankara and said "Despite difficulties we have achieved positive result. These agreements are our common extremely important success."

Turkey and Russia are working hard and working together to try to keep Syria safe. They also want to make certain that no new states emerge in the region.

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Understanding Kim Jung and Trump
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

North Korean dictator Kim Jung Un is an enigma to all of us. His character is uncharted, his actions are unpredictable. Both Western and Eastern analysts are mystified by his behavior and stymied by his rhetoric.

US President Donald Trump is also an enigma. His actions, too, cannot be predicted. North Koreans are simply stunned by Trump. They cannot figure him out. And that is why they have actually tried to hire republican insiders. They need people in the know to help translate Trump to Kim Jung Un.

The conflict between NoKo and the US is increasing. The risks are gargantuan. The rhetoric is ratcheting up and up. Both leaders are using words as weapons.

Rhetoric is never the basis for a truthful debate. By definition, rhetoric is exaggerated speech, it is most often non-creative and almost always repeats cliches.

Trump and Un are threatening attacks and moving closer and closer to action. North Korea continues to launch missile tests, and the US continues flying fighter jets and bombers near North Korea.

This kind of saber rattling can be misread. It can be overdone and when that happens, it causes dramatic and dangerous overreaction. That overreaction can lead to counter action which can lead to massive damage and deaths.

We can't tell Kim Jung Un what to do, but we can beseech President Trump. The United States needs to take a deep breath and step back.


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PA Calls Terrorist a Hero
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

When a Palestinian terrorist murders three people in Har Hadar, the natural response should be universal condemnation.

The three Israeli victims were murdered by a 37 year old Palestinian named Nimer Jamal.

Instead of condemnation, the official Palestinian Facebook Fatah page celebrated the murder and the murderer. The Facebook page called Nimer Jamal a hero. It read: "We mourn this heroic martyr."

One has to wonder how interested the Palestinians are in peace. They didn't have to condemn him. All they had to do was remain silent, that would have been sufficient. Instead, they went so far as to proclaim the terrorist a hero.

This is a public relations victory for the Palestinians. They murdered three Israelis and only lost one of their own.

In their eyes the terrorist - a wife beater whose wife escaped to Amman Jordan and sought refuge and safety abandoning her children, is seen as a hero by the Palestinian people.

This is a problem. It is not just a problem for peace --- it is a problem for justice and morality. If there is no agreement about the principles of right and wrong, how can there ever be the possibility of achieving peace.

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Iran Increasing Oil Exports
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has pledged to continue to export oil. Actually, they promised to export even more oil and increase their current production numbers.

This Iranian declaration comes despite the threat US President Donald Trump made if Iran were to do just that during the speech he delivered at the United Nations GA.

Currently Iran exports 2.6 million barrels of oil a day - that is up from 900,000 daily barrels in 2015, before the sanctions were lifted. It is a three-fold increase.

President Trump explained that the deal with Iran was one of the worst deals in history and during the campaign he threatened to rip up the deal. He hinted at that again during his UN speech.

But Iran's oil exports are not a violation of the terms of the famous nuke deal. They are pushing the OPEC quotas. Actually, that is good for the rest of the world as it will force down the price of oil in the world market.

It seems that Iran is making more money, but less per barrel. It is a mistake to cap them. An unintended consequence of Iran continuing to increase their exports is that they may, at the same time, break OPEC's control of the price of oil in world markets.

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Russian Def Min To Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Sergai Shoigu, Russia's Defense Minister, is going to visit Israel in October. The exact date of the trip has not been made public.

This is the first trip to Israel by a Russian defense minister in decades. One topic under discussion during this trip will most definitely be Syria. The Russian and Israeli defense ministers will discuss Iran's role in Syria and Hezbollah. At issue is how involved Iran will be in the future of Syria.

Heavy weapons will also be a very important topic.

Israel has stated their red lines very clearly to Russia. Israel will not permit a long term Iranian presence in Syria. Israel is asking Russia to make certain that Iran not remain there.

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Saudi At UN -No Excuse for Not Resolving Israeli PA Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The UN General Assembly is most often a tedious waiting game - waiting to listen to speaker after speaker rehash old ideas and make vague, never to be fulfilled threats or promises.

Saturday was different. That's the day Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir made a surprise pubic pronouncement during his speech at the UN.

Al Jubeir said that there is no reason for the Israeli / Palestinian conflict to continue. He did not lay blame. He just said it can and should be resolved.

The Saudi foreign minister said: "The Arab-Israeli conflict is still the longest conflict in the region in current times ... We don't see a justification for its continuation, particularly when there is international consensus about the solution based on two states."

Bottom line is that world pressure should be brought upon the parties to resolve the issue. World powers are already in agreement. Now the conflict must be resolved.

To make that happen, the United States must pressure Israel. Saudi Arabia will take care of pressuring the Palestinians.

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Israel Downs Iranian Drone
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel launched a Patriot missile and shot down an Iranian-made drone.

The drone took off from Damascus airport and flew toward Israel. When the drone hit the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, Israel launched a Patriot and shot down the drone.

Drone parts were found scattered in the area of Qunetra.

IDF spokesman Brig General Ronen Maelis said the [t]he drone "took off from the Damascus Airport towards the Golan and operated in the buffer zone, without infiltrating Israel."

The IDF spokesman is clearly suggesting that the drone was sent by Hezbollah, made by Iran and sponsored by Syria.

Israel will always aggressively protect its borders and not permit any drone to collect intelligence along its borders.

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UN Head Against Kurd Vote
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Kurds of Iraq are going to vote for independence on September 25th.

Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres just announced his displeasure with the referendum. He said that this vote, at this time, would detract from the immediate need to destroy ISIS.

Guterres' spokesman, Stephane DuJarric, explained that the Secretary General respects the "sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity," of Iraq. He further explained that any differences should be resolved through dialogue and compromise -- and through unilateral moves like a referendum of secession.

The Secretary suggests that the entire situation be approached with "patience and restraint."

Depending on the reaction to the September 25th referendum, there could be a massive genocide of the Kurds.

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Snapchat Shut Al Jazeera in Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Snapchat shuttered its portal to Al Jazeera in Saudi Arabia.

On September 13th Saudi Arabia asked Snapchat to shut down Al Jazeera down and yesterday they did just that.

Al Jazeera is a media group located in Qatar and owned by a very rich businessman who is also a member of the royal family.

For months there has been a huge dispute between Qatar and the other Gulf States - especially Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have led the charge against Qatar mainly because Qatar has reached out to Iran and been brought under their umbrella.

Sunni Qatar did the unthinkable and went over to the Shiites. The Saudis are making them pay for their defection.

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Turkey & ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September, 17,2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey arrested 74 people on charges of being ISIS members.

Interestingly the only 1 of the arrested was Turkish, all the others were foreigners. The 73 are being prepared for deportation. The report did not name the countries to where they will be deported and the countries from where they came.

The local Turk was being interrogated.

Turkey intersects with ISIS in 2 ways. Turkey is the easiest point of access for all those who want to join ISIS. From Turkey future ISIS fighters slip over the border into Syria.

ISIS is attacking Turkey within its own borders and has been organizing and perpetrating terror attacks to attempt to destabilize Turkey. Turkey knows that they need to confront ISIS. They must stop any and all ISIS activity.

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Israeli PM & Mexico Agree to Help Central America
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Thursday. This is the first time in the history of Israel that a sitting prime minister visited Mexico.

Netanyahu and Nieto agreed to update their 2000 free trade agreement. To quote Netanyahu: "We have agreed to establish and begin the ... negotiations to look over this agreement so that the commercial relationship between both nations intensifies and grows."

The most significant element of this agreement is that Israel agreed to help Mexico and the United States develop Central America.

This is a very important strategic move for Israel, they have much to contribute in this space. Over the years Israel has developed an expertise in helping African nations develop in the areas of agriculture, electricity, water, health and medicine.

Israel can do for South America what they do for Africa.

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Iran & Turkey to Get Part of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Ashraq al Awsat is an Arabic language newspaper headquartered in London. It is one of the most influential media outlets in Arabic.

Yesterday the paper covered a story about Iran and Turkey being very close to a coming to terms on a formal agreement pertaining to Syria. The agreement is under the auspices of Russia because Russia is actually the controlling force in Syria.

The main points of this agreement are frighteningly problematic.

Turkey will get a presence in north western Syria called the Idlib region. In exchange for that, Iran will get control over an area in southern Damascus. The area is heavily Shiite and includes a very important Shiite Mosque by the name of Sayyidah Zaynab. In addition, Iran will expand the mosque.

This agreement will guarantee Iran's involvement in Syria. It will be the basis for Iran's involvement on the ground in Syria and in the capital and will allow Iran influence and access to decisions in the Syrian capital.

And Russia will be pulling all the strings.

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Saudis Bust ISIS Terror Cell
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia made an official announcement stating that they have busted a ring of ISIS terrorists.

During the arrest Saudi authorities seized numerous explosives, triggers, grenades and weapons. The group had the materials used to make explosive vests and had practiced using them.

Two of those arrested were Yemini's living in Saudi Arabia under assumed names.

Two native Saudis were also arrested.

ISIS has set its sights on the Saudis. They want to hit Saudi Arabia with terror attacks and they want to unseat the Saudi royal family that runs the government.

The plan that was uncovered during this arrest was a design to blow up the Saudi defense ministry.

If ISIS successfully targets Saudi government symbols and creates a sense of fear among Saudi residents they will successfully weaken the fabric of Saudi life.

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Conference w Israel and Muslims Postponed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Bad news was announced by Israel's Foreign Ministry. There has been a significant setback in Israel's effort at normalizing relations with Africa, including with many Muslim countries.

From October 23rd to 27th, in a city called Lome, the capital of Togo, there was supposed to be conference of 54 African countries. Israel was counting on participating. The conference has been postponed.

It was cancelled by the president of Togo. He succumbed to pressure and to the fear of violence in his streets if the conference were to go on as planned.

When Israel was informed of the cancellation of the conference, it was agreed that another conference, one between Israel and Togo, would be arranged. The official response was that their conference was moved "to a date to be agreed upon between the two countries."

The Lome conference was originally seen by Israel as a sign of the massive success of their outreach to Africa.

The cancellation did not come out of the blue. Many countries tried to derail the conference. South Africa, for example, was particularly vocal. The Palestinians were working hard to find a way to prevent Israel from participating and that included trying to cancel the conference.

For the Palestinians, their effort paid off. For everyone else, it's an unfortunate loss.

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Russia and Saudis Agree to Safe Zones
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Abdel al Jubeir, and Russia, Sergei Lavrov, met and emphasized that the three de-escalation zones now in Syria are not a framework for dividing up Syria in the future. The de-escalation zones are supposed to be quiet areas that are in the regions where the ceasefires have been in effect and where air force flights are off limits.

There is, however, a plan to create a 4th zone soon.

Lavrov said: "The purpose of the de-escalation zones is to stop the violence." ... "It is not a permanent measure, and nobody who agree those zones has an intention of keeping them for good, thus in fact having long-term enclaves in the Syrian territory."

He continued: "The agreement is their term is six months, and it is clear already the result is evident, the ceasefire is generally observed."It is important to realize that the de-escalation zones are supposed "to begin spreading across Syria the space, where ceasefire is observed, where peaceful life is developing."

People are expecting that this agreement might set the stage for a peaceful end to this conflict in Syria. But for now, we are only talking about baby steps.

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Saudis To Reduce Oil Output
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia announced that as of October, they will be cutting oil output. This Saudi decision is in line with the decision made by OPEC to reduce the amount of oil being sent to refineries.

Saudi Arabia will drop production to all their customers by 380,000 barrels per day. The largest consumer of oil in the world is the Asian market. Japan will most certainly be hurt by this reduction.

Europe normally gets 225,000 barrels per day from the Saudis. In October they will be cut to anywhere from 70,000 to 155,000 barrels. That is nearly a 30% reduction.

Even exports to the United States will be cut.

OPEC needs this to happen. They need to lift the price of oil. In January oil sold at $58 per barrel. Now the price has dropped to $50, sometimes climbing only as high as $54.

OPEC is counting on this reduction in output - especially by the Saudis, to force the price of oil up. They are hoping the price will level out at over $75 per barrel.

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Hitler Bell in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A small town in Germany still has a Hitler Bell.

What's a Hitler Bell? A Hitler Bell is a bell inscribed with a swastika and a quote from Hitler. This quote reads: "Everything for the Fatherland" - Adolph Hitler.

The small German town is called Herxheim am Berg. The bell is situated in a Protestant Church. It is causing quite a hoopla.

The mayor of the town defended the bell. He was so defensive that he even quoted a 95 year old resident who said that the Nazi period also had some "good things."

Obviously, most Hitler Bells and other Nazi and Hitler structures were destroyed immediately after World War II. No one can explain why this bell remained.

The best answer is that no one thought it necessary to remove it. That, in and of itself, is telling. And as for the mayor, he has since resigned.

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Godiva Becomes Muslim
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

I just read an article in the Israeli daily Haaretz. It was about Godiva Chocolate and its current owner, the Turkish company Yildiz.

In April, Yildiz quietly ended all alcohol infused chocolate production. There are those who believe that the new Godiva has become heavily - maybe even overly, influenced by Islam.

The story of Lady Godiva is about as far from the tenets of Islam as one can get.

Godiva Chocolate was created in 1926 in Brussels. An image of Lady Godiva, after whom the company is quite obviously named, appears on every chocolate wrapper and chocolate and on the label of every box. She appears on horseback and nude, but covered up by her long hair. According to legend and lore, Lady Godiva rode nude through Coventry and the only person to peek at her was Peeping Tom looked.

In 1958 the first store opened in Paris, the chocolate company came to New York in the 1960's. Soon after, Godiva was bought up by the Campbell Soup company. And then, in 2008, It was bought by the Turkish company Yildiz.

The company has grown and few people even know of the Islamic connection. Islam never impacted on the product - until now.


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35,000 Radical Muslims in England
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union's counter-terrorism coordinator, gave his evaluation on the future of terror in Europe. Using England as an example, he said that the "The United Kingdom has identified 20,000 to 35,000 radicals."

Breaking down the radical groups even further, de Kerchove went on to explain that "3,000 are worrying for MI5, and of those, 500 are under constant and special attention."

By comparison, de Kerchove said that "France has 17,000. Spain many less, but more than 5,000 I suppose. In Belgium almost 500 have been to Syria and there are around 2,000 radicals or more."

In short - Europe is infested with potential terrorists. De Kerchove said, "I wouldn't like to put a concrete figure on it, but (in Europe) tens of thousands, more than 50,000."

De Kerchove has a plan for dealing with these potential terrorists. "We must select those who are really worrying and the most dangerous, and they should be monitored 24 hours a day, seven days a week."

His conclusion is based on the principle that terrorists need not travel to the Middle East anymore. "The propaganda of the organization no longer requires people to go to the caliphate. They can attack in their places or origin, including on a small scale with home-made weapons."

This is a sobering and welcome evaluation. It means that Europe and European leadership is finally waking up to the threat of terror. Hopefully, this message will be received by those people who can benefit from the evaluation.

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Putin Meets Xi about N Korea
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 3, 2017

I've Been thinking:

Russia and China are worried about the latest North Korean nuclear test.

The two presidents, Putin and Xi Jinping, said that they are working together to "appropriately deal with" the North Korean nuclear saber rattling.

The two are meeting in the Southern Chinese city of Xiamen as part of the BRICS economic group. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They are a group of five fast growing emerging economies and they meet to compare notes and assist one another with their growth.

China and Russia are clearly untied in their objective to keep North Korea from advancing its nuclear capabilities. The best way to achieve that end is to coordinate their approach and next steps.

This meeting underscores for us just how closely aligned Russia and China are. They are on the same page and they are speaking at the highest of levels.

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IAEA Says Iran Is Following Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Looks like Iran is following the nuke deal.

Yesterday, the IAEA, the international agency that is the watchdog supervising Iran's nuclear development, delivered its 3rd report on Iran since January.

They concluded that Iranians are following both the spirit and the letter of the famous - or, as some consider it - the infamous, nuke deal of March 2015.

This is important news.

The White House has accused Iran of violating the deal. Congress has asserted that Iran is playing footloose and fancy free with the deal. But the only group qualified to actually determine whether Iran is cooperating is the International Atomic Energy Agency.

And they say that everything is A-OK.

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US Craters ISIS as the Retreat
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has been ousted from the Lebanese/Syrian border. They have moved east toward their stronghold on the Iraqi/Syrian border.

Making up the ISIS convoy were 308 fighters and 331 others. As the convoy moved, the United States blew up the road and the bridge that ISIS members needed to travel and reunite with their group.

The ISIS ceasefire was created between Hezbollah, the Lebanese army and ISIS. The entire objective was to oust ISIS - and they succeeded. The US, however, is not obligated to uphold that agreement and that is why they blasted the road.

Ryan Dillon, the US spokesman for the coalition, put it clearly and succinctly: "We did crater the road and destroyed a small bridge to prevent this convoy from moving further east ... We're not bound by these (ceasefire deal) agreements ... They're clearly fighters and they're moving to another location to fight yet again. In accordance with the law of armed conflict ... we will strike them if we are able to do so"

There is no rule of war that permits terrorists to relocate.

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ISIS Ousted from Leb/Syria Border
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

After being subjected to a sustained pounding on both sides of the Syrian Lebanese border, ISIS agreed to a ceasefire.

The purpose of the cease fire was to get ISIS out of the region.

According to Hezbollah TV, ISIS really is on its way out. They reported that two dozen buses and eleven ambulances departed the region. No one can confirm how many people were in the vehicles.

ISIS was moving to Boukamal, a town in eastern Syria. Boukamal is on the border with Iraq, far away from the border of Lebanon and Syria.

This is a great success for Hezbollah and the Lebanese army. They ousted ISIS from their borders and moved them to the other side of Syria. Their region now appears to be safe and secure.

But not really. The void will most likely be filled by Iran.

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Saudis Sign $70B Deal w China
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

China and Saudi Arabia just signed a $70 billion deal in which the Saudis will be purchasing goods and services from China.

That is a huge deal. Not only will it be a tremendous boost to China's economy, it also means that the Chinese will now be less dependent on US markets.

The deal involves media, postal services, trade, energy and communications. It is a massive investment on the part of Saudi Arabia. They are investing in China to buoy their future.

This is such an important deal that it actually has its own name - it's called Looking to the Future 2030.

The most important thing to remember is that the Saudis are moving towards the Chinese. China has become a provider, it is no longer only self-oriented and internally focused.

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Iran Imprison Leaders Who Liberalize Islam
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran convicted a Shiite religious leader and sentenced him to death. He was convicted of blaspheme and creating a cult.

In reality, the Shiite leader created a New Age style of Shiite Islam. It is a form of liberalizing of Islam. His lawyer will appeal the decision.

There was a similar case in 2014. After appeal, the death penalty was reduced and the cleric remains in prison for life.

Iranians are looking to control the growth of Shiite Islam. They cannot tolerate and do not understand the growth of religious ideas in the modern world. Ultimately, Iran will not be able to restrict the natural evolution of new ideas that has always influenced Islam.

For centuries external forces improved Islam. Shutting out those forces is a recipe for failure for Iran.

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California Leads US in Anti-Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism is up 30% in California in the first quarter of 2017.
California leads the country in anti Semitic incidents. California!!

How is that possible? The stories are hair-raising. Fourth graders are being told by their classmates that Hitler should have burned them all in the ovens. This happened in the context of young Jewish girls describing their trip to Memphis, TN and discussing the rise of the KKK and neo-Nazism.

Alameda, situated just outside of San Francisco and considered by Californians to be a liberal bastion, has been teaming with anti-Semitic attacks. One might think that in this uber liberal environment anti=Semitism would be unacceptable, but it is happening all over - especially in schools.

The numbers and the examples come from the ADL.

This does not bode well.

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The Mid East May Explode on 9-25
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On September 25th the entire Middle East might explode.

That is the day that the Kurds of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq will vote for independence.

5 million people will cast their votes and almost everyone will opt for independence.

The Shiites, who now govern Iraq, have said that they will not recognize an independent Kurdish state. But the truth is that the Iraqi army is preoccupied fighting ISIS and they are no match for the Kurds. In addition, the Kurds already control their border.

The Turks and the Iranians will be very upset with Kurdish independence. 75% of the Kurds are split between these two nations. And that is where war may emerge.

The Turks will do anything to prevent a Kurdish state. Iran does not want to cede any of its land, nor do they want their Kurds running to join the new Iraqi Kurdish state.

If battle breaks the conflict will be between Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Iran. There will be huge losses. But in the end an independent state might emerge carved out of Turkey and Iran and Iraq.

The other possibility is a massacre in which of millions of Kurds will be murdered at the hands of Turks and Iranians.

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Israel Revokes Citizenship of ISIS Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A new law was activated in Israel this week: Citizens who engage in hostile acts against the state will have their citizenship revoked.

Aryeh Deri, Israel's minister of the interior, listed 20 people who will have their citizenship revoked. The 20 were convicted of joining ISIS.

Aryeh Deri also mentioned that those who use their cars to murder and ram Israelis may also be put on the citizenship chopping block. I would guess that all convicted terrorists might fall into this category.

The hope is that this new legal power will influence terrorists to stop their actions. Israeli citizenship brings with it many benefits.

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Iran Makes Nuke Counter Move
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is striking back at the United States. Iranians are saying that it will only take them five days to ramp up their uranium production to 20% - enough make a nuclear bomb.

Official Iranian media quoted Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's atomic agency, saying: "If we make the determination, we are able to resume 20 percent-enrichment in at most five days."

As part of the deal agreed upon in 2015, Iran destroyed or exported almost all of its uranium that was enriched over 20%.

But there's more. Now they say that if the US does not hold up the agreement they will also violate the agreement and they can easily start enriching uranium.

This is Iran's counter move to Trump's assertion that the United States will stop the deal because Iran is violating it. Iran is saying, in essence, whatever you think is a violation will pale in comparison to what we will do if the United States breaks the agreement.

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Russia Strikes ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This will give you a sense of what Russia is doing in Syria.

The Russian ministry of defense announced on Monday that they successfully intercepted an ISIS convoy and destroyed it killing 200 ISIS fighters.

The Russian ministry of defense said that the Russian air force attacked and destroyed a large column of ISIS fighters.

The ISIS fighters were moving from Raqqa to the city of Deir al Zor. They were hoping to secure their move and created a large convoy in the hope of protecting themselves from attack.

But the larger the convoy, the easier it is to hit from the air. And that is exactly what the Russian air force did. In addition to killing the ISIS fighters, Russia emphasized that they also destroyed ISIS' weapons, hardware and equipment.

This was a very impressive strike and is a huge loss for ISIS. Kudos to Russia.

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Israel Prefers Good Terms Won't Critique Trump
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There has been critique of Israeli leadership for not criticizing Donald Trump's comments - or lack of comments, about white nationalists.

It should be abundantly clear that this was an obvious decision, not an oversight. Israel came to the conclusion that preserving their relationship with the Trump White House is more important than calling out anti-Semites.

President Trump is not, I believe, an anti-Semite - but he is giving them cover. When Trump failed to criticize white nationalists he empowered them.

Israel should have explained this to Trump. They should have gone public and clearly explained that these people are evil.

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ISIS Celebrates Terror in Barcelona
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is celebrating the attacks in Spain. The celebration is taking place not just on official ISIS websites, but also by supporters of ISIS in the Western world.

Amaq, the ISIS news agency, has an explanation for the deadly terror attack that has rocked Barcelona. This is what Amaq had to say: "The perpetrators of the Barcelona attack are soldiers of the Islamic State and carried out the operation in response to calls for targeting coalition states."

Twitter lit up after the Barcelona attacks. There was an entire group who supported ISIS and the attacks against innocent Spaniards and tourists. They said that this terror was coming to them for being part of the US coalition and intervening in the Middle East to fight ISIS.

"To all Spanish people, the time has now come to pay for everything that your government has done to innocent people in our countries."

Another twitter writer wrote to Christians around the wolrd: "The worshipers of the Cross no longer feel safe and secure in their homes, individual wolves are still watching and waiting for the right time to cover your heads and shed your blood."

The hashtag #thecrucifixionofthecrusaders collected much of these comments. The hashtag itself means "to kill Christians".

This is dangerous stuff.

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ISIS Attack Hamas in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Early Thursday morning at Rafah, the crossing between Gaza and Egypt, Hamas security forces went to arrest two suspicious people.

As the two were being arrested they blew themselves up together with the Hamas border police.

ISIS along with their Salafi affiliates in Gaza took responsibility for the attack against Hamas. The announcement said the attack "was done in response to Hamas activity against Salafist jihadists ... which includes the destruction of mosques belonging to the organization, the arrest of its members, and their persecution."

The terrorists were probably wearing explosive suicide vests.

It should be noted that both ISIS and Hamas are terror groups. They are both on the same side in Syria both, trying to oust Assad. But in Gaza - in Gaza, Hamas and ISIS are arch enemies.

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Hamas Warns Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yahya Sinwar has been the leader of Hamas for the past 6 months. He has not been a very public - until yesterday when he held a press briefing.

Sinwar warned Israel not to escalate tensions or attack Gaza. He asserted that Hamas is much more powerful than they were during the last conflict with Israel.

Sinwar said: "Hamas is not seeking a confrontation, but if such a confrontation should arise, Hamas will pummel Israel."

Sinwar warned Israel against "taking stupid steps against the Gaza Strip" and claimed that "the Palestinian resistance has the ability to respond to that."

There is no doubt that tensions wax and wane between Israel and Hamas.

Tensions will certainly rise to a level that will require a response - and that response may very well lead to an all out conflict, something approaching war war.

Hamas is saying that, should it come to another conflict, they will respond and, in the end, Israel will be hurt.

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Abbas Sends Blessing to Kim Jon Un
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas did it again ... only this time with North Korea.

Abbas sent Kim Jong Un a telegram wishing him and the North Korean people congratulations on the celebration of Liberation Day, the day that celebrates their liberation from Japan.

Abbas thanked Kim Jong for his support of the Palestinian people and for North Korea's investment and trade as well as for their close friendship.

WAFA, the official Palestinian media, published a copy of the telegram.

Abbas wrote that Kim Jong Un "sacrificed the most precious sacrifices for its freedom and honor."

He wrote that he hopes that the "historical friendly relations between Palestine and North Korea and their two peoples will continue to develop and grow" and then he wished Kim "all health and happiness."

What is Abbas thinking? How many other countries wished North Korean well on this day? Reaching out to Kim Jong Un is a destructive move that will only further alienate Abbas and Palestinians from the West.

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Convicted For Defrauding ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A German court convicted a Syrian of attempting to defraud several ISIS terrorists.

The Syrian is referred to only as "Hassan A.". He asked the ISIS members for 180,000 Euros which is equivalent to $212,400. In return for the money Hassan agreed to plan and perpetrate a terror attack in Germany.

In the end no money was transferred - but Hassan A. was sentenced to two years of prison for trying to defraud ISIS.

Hassan A., a 39 year old a hairdresser, was found not guilty of planning a terror attack. He never planned on creating an attack - he was just trying to steal money from ISIS.

One has to laugh at the entire story. Should ISIS be protected from fraud and a flimflam? I'm not certain ... Should an illegal enterprise be protected from fraud? What do you think?

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US Kills More ISIS Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has killed several major ISIS leaders in Afghanistan.
The US targeted the ISIS leaders in an airstrike on Thursday. The top leader killed in the strike is Abdul Rahman, ISIS leader in the Kunar Province. The ISIS group was called ISIS-K.

Three other ISIS leaders were also killed in the strike. US General John Nicholson, senior US commander in Afghanistan, confirmed that the strike and the successful targeting of the SIS leaders.

"The death of Abdul Rahman deals yet another blow to the senior leadership of ISIS-K."

ISIS is on the ropes in the Far East and in the Middle East. Pressure against ISIS is continuing to build. The final destruction of ISIS is in sight.


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Iran May Be Forced Out of World Cup
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

International sports are supposed to be above politics. In fact, the rules of international sports competition dictates that no politics be a part of any decisions.

Some participants and organizers even harbor the hope - perhaps, the dream - that during competitions warring states will be seen as parties that can compete even when they disagree.

But hopes and dreams do not always come true. Two Iranian players for the Greek soccer club Panionios decided not to play in their away game against Israel, in Israel, even though they were pressured and fined by the club. When Israel traveled to Greece, however, to play Panionios at home, some same two Iranian players for the Greek club played.

Playing in their "home" stadium was considered a huge act of defiance by Iran. Iranian political leadership saw the player's participation as a betrayal, even a crime.

In the end the two Iranians who played for the Greek team were dropped from the Iranian national soccer team. Social media in Iran overwhelmingly defended the athletes' decision to play. But in this case, politicians had the last word.

Now FIFA, the international soccer body that supervises the soccer worldwide, has stepped in and asked for clarification. FIFA bylaws say there can be no external/political influence in decision making. If it is determined that the political powers exerted any influence Iran would be removed from all international competition.

This would be very costly and painful for Iran. Not simply because they would not be permitted to compete in club games, but because Iran qualified for the World Cup which is a great national honor and they would not be permitted to participate.

This is an example of emotions getting the better of them. The Iranians did not think things through.

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ISIS Threatens Iran w/ More Terror in Tehran
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday ISIS released another video in Farsi, the language of Iran.

The ISIS speaker, holding an AK-47 and sitting between two other ISIS members, called on followers in Iran to resume making bombs and blowing things up in the Iranian capital of Tehran.

They called it Jihad.

In June ISIS successfully carried out simultaneous attacks in Tehran. They struck the burial tomb of the founder of the Islamic state, the Grand Ayatollah Khomeini, at the same time as they attacked the Iranian parliament.

The speaker in the video said: "The same way we are cutting the necks of your dogs in Iraq and Syria we will cut your necks in the center of Tehran."

ISIS means business.

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Israel Extradited Jewish Murderer of Arab
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This is a remarkable story.

Yehoshua Elitzur has been extradited from Brazil to Israel.

Elitzur, who lived in the settlement of Itamar, was found guilty and sentenced to 20 years imprisonment in Israel for the 2004 murder of Sael Jabara al-Shatiya who lived in the Arab village of Shalem.

To reiterate - Israel has successfully returned a Jewish Israeli murderer who killed a Palestinian Arab in 2004. He is returning to serve his sentence. The process of extradition was long and it was expensive. Elitzur was arrested in Brazil in 2015. The Brazilians did not want to release him to Israel.

Now Yehoshua Elitzur will pay his debt to society in an Israeli prison.

Israeli justice is interested in bringing all people who flaunt the law to justice. The dictate cuts across the board. In the view of Israeli justice, Arab lives are just as important as Jewish lives.

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Pushing ISIS out of Syria & Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Lebanese army, together with Hezbollah, is planning to uproot ISIS from both sides of their borders. Assad's Syrian army will also be involved in rooting out ISIS - but the Lebanese say they are not coordinating directly with Assad.

The United States is supporting Lebanon's army. The US has provided Lebanon with weapons, helicopters and drones.

There are about 400 ISIS fighters in Lebanon - across the border there are probably about another 700 ISIS fighters. Hezbollah's leaders took to the airwaves and warned ISIS fighters that they will either die or be imprisoned.

This will be a coordinated force striking out against ISIS. There will be Lebanese losses, but the Lebanese will succeed.

But that's not all good news. ISIS will be dislodged, and after ISIS is dislodged, the vacuum will be filled by Hezbollah. Hezbollah will be on both sides of the border - they will be on both the Lebanese side and the Syrian side.

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Hamas Drones
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Another Hamas drone fell in Israel. It was not shot down -- it fell from the sky. The IDF found it and they are investigating and evaluating the drone.

There have been numerous Hamas drones that Israel either shot down or tracked down after they fell on Israeli soil. As a rule, Israel permits drones to fly over Gaza = but in principle, they will target a drone when the drone crosses over the Gaza border into Israel.

Hamas uses the drones as a tool to monitor Israeli movements, fortifications and even security features on fences and border crossings.

These drones are very small and inexpensive. They can even be bought on Amazon. They are outfitted with cameras that relay their pictures back to a computer in Gaza. These small drones fly low so they are hard to intercept. Larger drones, on the other hand, are targeted by helicopters or planes.

No doubt about it, Hamas is getting more and more sophisticated in how they collect intel.

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Hamas in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A senior Hamas delegation arrived in Iran on Friday.

This is gigantic step in Iran/Hamas relations. Iran has been supporting President Assad of Syria since the beginning of the Syrian conflict while Hamas has sided with those Sunnis trying to overthrow Assad.

As a result of this parting of the ways between Iran and Hamas over Syria, monies and the support for Hamas from Iran dwindled these past few years. But last week, during a visit to London, a high ranking Hamas member met the Iranian deputy foreign minister in charge of Arab affairs.

Now, with the push of Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations to isolate Qatar and Iran and create informal and public interaction with Israel, Iran sees how important it is to bring their natural allies - like Hamas, closer to their bosom.

So Hamas is now in Iran. Hamas leaders officially came to Iran to celebrate the inauguration of newly re-elected President Rouhani.

While there, Hamas leaders will have many meetings and extract many promises for support and assistance from Iran. In other words, they will come away with a lot of money.

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Iranian Granted Asylum from Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Neda Amin, an Iranian blogger/journalist for the Times of Israel, has been granted a special circumstances visa to enter Israel.

Amin left Iran in 2015 and has been living in Turkey. Now she is spending her time in a court battle, fighting a demand from Iran to repatriate her and bring her back to Iran - where she will certainly stand trial for the crime of blogging.

Neda Amin received UN refugee status in 2015 and she is appealing to other nations to take her in.

As a rule, Israel does not give visas to Iranians unless they are Jewish. But Interior Minister Aryeh Deri has made an exception. He said that Amin's life is in danger because she writes for Israel. The situation was brought to his attention when the Israel Journalists Federation appealed to Deri on behalf of Amin.

Deri responded immediately saying "This is a journalist whose life is in real danger." He continued --- "Given the clear humanitarian circumstances, I authorized her entry without delay."

We hope that Turkey will permit her to leave. Given that there have already been several Iranian hit squads that have executed Iranian expats in Istanbul, time is of the essence.

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Shin Bet Finds Hamas $ Trail
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's internal intelligence agency, the Shin Bet, together with Israeli police uncovered evidence that Turkey is helping Hamas launder money through Ramallah, the capital city of the Palestinian Authority.

The investigation has uncovered what is most probably only the tip of a major money laundering scheme.

The Shin Bet found that $200,000 was moved into Ramallah from Hamas headquarters in Turkey and then sent to Gaza.

There is no question that Hamas is getting money into Gaza. It is being smuggled in and schlepped in. Some of the money is coming from Iran and some is coming from Qatar. This method is more direct.

Qatar can deposit money in Hamas' account in Istanbul, Turkey as a way into Gaza. In that way Hamas avoids the international bank restrictions imposed on support for Hamas.

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70% of Israelis Want Death Penalty for Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Democracy Institute recently conducted a survey asking Israelis if they support the death penalty for terrorists who murder Israelis.

70% of Israelis say that they would support executing terrorists found guilty of murdering Israelis.

This week a bill will be brought to the Knesset to change the current law and allow capital punishment for terrorists.

Since Israel's birth in 1948, only one person has been executed - Adolf Eichmann the mastermind behind the transporting of Jews to their deaths during the Nazi Final Solution. And even then the Knesset had to pass a special exception in order to execute Eichmann.

The debate going on now is intense.

Until now terrorists knew that should they remain alive after the attack, they may one day return home as part of a negotiated trade deal. But with the rise of suicide terrorists and ISIS, there are very different options available for Israelis and for the terrorists. Today's terrorists almost always assume that they will die in the operation.

It is too soon to tell what the result of this very heated debate will be. We will, however, soon have our answer.

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There is No Solution
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 2, 2017
I've Been Thinking:

People are up-in-arms that special adviser and lead Mideast point man Jared Kushner said "there may be no solution" the Israeli-Palestinian situation.

Kushner's comments were leaked from an off-the-record briefing on the Middle East with congressional interns. The interns were warned not to leak anything from the briefing.

Actually, Kushner's insight is refreshing.

Most serious analysts have said, at one time or another, that there may not be a solution to the conflict. They have come to the conclusion that the best that can happen is a slow improvement towards a better situation and a better status quo.

The idea that a magic wand can bring the parties together is nothing short of insane.

One of the most important goals must be to improve the lives of Palestinians and Israelis. And that can be achieved without a real political resolution.


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PA Trying to Cancel Israel Africa Summit
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

In October, Togo is going to host the Africa Israel Summit. 40 of the 48 Sub-Saharan participant countries have diplomatic relations with Israel.
The Palestinian Authority and Morocco are lobbying Togo to cancel the summit.

Togo's president told PA President Abbas to stop telling him how to run his country.

This summit has been in the works for two years. The summit will focus on security, counter terrorism, economic ties, agriculture exchange, health and education and - of course, technology.

The Africa Israel Summit will benefit all those countries in attendance.

This summit is the fruition of Israel's foreign policy vision. It will allow Israel to expand its role and to play a significant part in the development of all the Sub-Saharan countries that partner with her.

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Qatar Says - Internationalize Muslim Sites
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Qatar shot back at the rest of the Arab world yesterday. They suggested that Muslim holy sites be controlled by an international body.

Qatar took a dramatic swipe at Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis control many of the Muslim Holy sites, as do the Iraqis. And the Saudis shot back.

The Saudis said to Qatar that this is a declaration of war. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir said on al Arabiya's website: "Qatar's demands to internationalize the holy sites is aggressive and a declaration of war against the kingdom."

He continued: We reserve the right to respond to anyone who is working on the internationalization of the holy sites."

Qatar accused the Saudis of politicizing the Hajj and of setting obstacles preventing Muslims from participating in the Hajj.

These tensions will continue to fester.

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Abbas Refuses to Meet w US Envoy
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone keeping tabs on the tensions in Jerusalem knew that President Trump dispatched Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt to the region to help resolve the problems.

Their dispatch, their meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, - everything they did and spoke about was covered in the press, especially details about settlements.

So why was there no mention of Abbas’ meeting with the dynamic duo? That answer was just released and it will blow your mind. Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas refused to meet with the US president's special envoy Jason Greenblatt.

The reason given for the slap in the face to Greenblatt is that Abbas is enraged by Greenblatt's public announcement that the United States will slap sanctions on the PA for paying salaries to terrorists who are arrested by Israel and to the families of terrorists killed in the act.

That announcement was made clear to Abbas in an earlier meeting between the US and PA.

Instead of meeting with Abbas, Greenblatt met with PA chief negotiator Saeb Erakat and PA intelligence chief Majid Faraj.

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Arab League Warn Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League convened an emergency session on Thursday. They met to discuss al Aqsa, Israel's adding and then removing metal detectors on the Temple Mount and the proposed plan to check everyone entering the mosque area.

After the meeting, Secretary of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit said:
"Israel's withdrawal from its provocative and illegal actions solves the crisis they themselves created."

He continued:

"Dealing with Islamic sanctities with such imprudence poses a real threat of igniting a religious war, because no Muslim in the world accepts tarnishing al-Aqsa or its closure in the face of the worshipers or placing it under Israeli control."

And then:

"I call on the occupying state to read the lessons of this crisis and the message it carries."

Gheit was underscoring that al Aqsa is the third most holy site in all of Islam. True to form, the secretary of the Arab League could not call Israel by name - in keeping with anti-Israel tradition, he used the term "occupying state."

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PA is Calling for Violent Attacks on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday the Tanzim, the Palestinian Authority Fatah military wing, gathered together for a meeting. They called for armed conflict with Israel.

This is a huge divergence from the past. It is a game changer. This declaration outs the Tanzim and puts them squarely in the Hamas and Hezbollah camp.

How do we know that this call was authentic and real? Because the meeting took place in Ramallah and because Abbas’ deputy, Mahmoud al Aloul, was present at he meeting. Also present was Fatah Central Committee member Tawfik Tirawi. Even official Fatah Spokesman Osama Qawasmeh said that this call to arms was in line with established Fatah ideology to fight Israel.

The Tanzim called for violent confrontations and not just demonstration on Fridays.

It now seems clear that Palestinian leadership is intent on taking advantage of the momentum of violence and protest and push it forward,

The sad reality is that Palestinian leadership is not pursuing a path towards peace. Instead, it is pushing for the destruction of Israel. They are in pursuit of an impossible and unattainable goal.

Israel is not going away.

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Tensions Continue Despite Removal of Metal Detectors
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:


We were told that the crisis - the tensions in Jerusalem, was all about the metal detectors. But yesterday all the metal detectors were removed and yet, the violence and the protests and the rhetoric continue.

Here's why.

The Grand Mufti of Jerusalem has said Palestinians will not rest until all
Israeli police presence and all IDF presence is totally removed from the area around the Temple Mount. The Palestinian agenda is to have all access to and from the Temple Mount totally out of the control of Israel. To that end they are also rejecting the smart cameras which have been suggested as a solution to the problem of security.

This new demand by the Mufti is a clear violation of previous agreements regarding the status quo and even the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan.

But that is not the essential point.

The essential point is that Netanyahu, the prime minster of Israel, capitulated. Even though 77% of Israel thought it was a mistake to remove the metal detectors, the Mufti saw that Israel gave in and now they want more.

The principle behind the Mufti's demand is that, in the eyes of Islam, a non-believer - especially a Jew, cannot control a Muslim holy site and cannot tell a Muslim how to behave in what is supposed to be a Muslim controlled region.

And that's the crux of the issue.

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Israel Jordan Rift Resolves
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Resolutions are in the works. Calm may be restored sooner rather than later.

The Israeli guard who shot and killed two Jordanians has returned to Israel.
That resolution came about after conversations between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Jordan's King Abdullah.

At the same time, the head of Israel's Shin Bet traveled to Amman to meet with his Jordanian counterpart, the head of the General Intelligence Directorate (GID). In the presence of the two department heads, while in the Israeli embassy in Amman, the Israeli guard re-enacted events and was debriefed/investigated/interrogated.

At the end of the investigation, the guard was permitted to leave Jordan. He and the Israeli ambassador crossed the Allenby Bridge and returned to Israel on Monday.

It is almost 100% certain that in exchange for lifting their ban on Israeli diplomats, Jordan received assurances that Israel will remove the metal detectors from the Temple Mount.

The Israeli cabinet discussed removing the metal detectors and replacing them with smart cameras - very sophisticated cameras that can sense weapons and explosives.

Once all this happens, tensions will melt away.


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Israel Embassy Attacked in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There was a shooting inside the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan yesterday.

Israel has not yet issued a statement. So far, all the information we have has come from the Jordanians.

Two terrorists entered the Israeli embassy, presumably, as workers for a furniture company coming to do repairs. Once inside they started to shoot.

The terrorists were killed. An Israeli was wounded.

The Israeli embassy in Jordan is in a very luxurious neighborhood in Amman.
It is built like a fortress and is guarded, on the outside, by Jordanian anti-terror forces. The embassy has been a center for protests against Israel.

Tensions are high in Jordan - about 40% of Jordan's population is of Palestinian descent.

Jordan is very close with the United States and they have a peace treaty with Israel. They are officially in charge of the Temple Mount. The Wafq, which is the religious trust that operates and controls the Temple Mount, is funded by Jordan.

The Jordanians are walking a tightrope.

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Tensions Increasing - Not Yet an Intifada
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A rocket, shot from the northern part of Hamas-controlled Gaza, exploded en-route to Israel.

The rocket was aimed at the southern Israeli port city of Ashkelon. Thankfully, it exploded prematurely, early on during its flight.

This rocket is the latest exchange in the increasingly tense situation between Israelis and Palestinians.

Tensions ratcheted up when three Israeli-Arab terrorists killed two Druze-
Israeli border guards in the Old City of Jerusalem. The murder took place just outside the compound of the Temple Mount. The terrorists ran into the grand plaza for protection after the attack. Two of the three were killed by the Israeli army responding to the attack. The third was injured and arrested. One of the terrorists posted about his need to defend al Aqsa, the mosque atop the Temple Mount.

Israel shut the Temple Mount for 36 hours and then re-opened it up after setting up metal detectors. This past Friday, the Muslim Sabbath day, the day when most Arab worshipers come to pray at the Mount, Palestinian leaders called for protests until the metal detectors were taken down. In response, Palestinians rioted.

Three Palestinian youths were killed during Friday's rioting.

And on Friday night a Palestinian terrorist broke into a Jewish settlement and then into a private home as a family was enjoying their Sabbath evening dinner. Three members of the family were killed, a fourth was seriously injured. This terrorist wrote on his facebook page that he loves people and is peaceful and happy, but he can't sit still, he must defend Al Aqsa.

Palestinian President Abbas has cancelled all interaction with Israel until the metal detectors are taken down.

And now much of the Arab world is echoing the call to defend al Aqsa from the Jews.

Tensions will only continue to escalate.


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Kuwait Expells Iranian Ambassador
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait has evicted the Iranian ambassador stationed in Kuwait City. The ambassador has 48 days to pack up and leave.

This is all the result of a spy scandal.

Kuwait uncovered a set of spies and tracked them back to Iran. The Kuwaitis are breaking relations with Iran because of the spy ring.

Iran issued a statement through SNA, their official press, the Iranians
Students News Agency. They said:

"Under the pressure of Saudi interventionist policies, and the baseless accusation of Iranian interference ... Kuwait has announced that ... Alireza Enayati, the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait, must leave within 48 days".

Obviously, tensions are rising. The real issues go far deeper than spying.

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Iran Threatens US Over Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

As everyone knows, the US has stepped up sanctions against Iran.
The United States feels that Iran is violating the great deal that was signed between the P-5 plus 1. And Iran is hitting back.

The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammed Ali Jafari, has warned the United States that if they continue to invoke sanctions, they should withdraw troops up to about 700 miles away from Iran.

He said: "If the United States wants to pursue sanctions against Iran's defenses and the Guards, then it has to move its regional bases to a distance of about 1,000 km around Iran and be aware that it would pay a high price for any miscalculations.”

Iran is making a direct threat. Iran will attack US interests.

Here is the deal – Iran does not think that they have violated the deal.
Hitting them with sanctions will almost certainly result in a serious counter response. And the Iranian counter may be military.

More probably, however, it will be political response, perhaps even an economic response, like blocking US firms from bidding on Iranian contract or buying Iranian oil.

Time will tell.


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More Sanctions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The US Treasury Department announced a list of Iranians who are skirting the now infamous deal with the Western nations signed in March of 2016.
Sanctions have now been levied on the Iranian firms and individuals on the list.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is part of the elite of the elite of Iran, is on the list. The US Treasury says that Iranian violators have been developing drones, producing and maintaining boats and importing electronic components of defense materials.

According to the report two Iranian individuals are "engaging in activities that have materially contributed to the development of Iran's nuclear and missile programs."

Another group has been involved in stealing US software.

The agreement with Iran covered nuclear development and not conventional weapons development. The Iranian claim is that all this activity is for conventional and not nuclear weapon programs.

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Imam in Montreal Calls to Kill Jews
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Montreal police have issued an arrest warrant for a Jordanian Imam who preached the murder of Jews.

Daral Arqam Mosque, located in the neighborhood of Saint Michel, invited an Imam named Sheik Muhammed bin Musa al Nasr to give a sermon in December of 2016. During his sermon the imam recited a Hadith, a post-Koranic text, about the end of days which proscribes that Muslims murder Jews who hide behind every tree.

"O Muslim, O servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him."
The director of Bnai Brith in Montreal asked the police to investigate and police issued the arrest warrant.

B'nai Brith has committed to tracking down this imam wherever he is and to extradite him for trial. They argue that one cannot preach hatred that calls for the murder of Jews.


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Arab Leaders Condemn Terror: Local Leaders Embrace
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This is essential to understand.

The King of Jordan condemned the terror on the Temple Mount. And yet, the parliament of Jordan proclaimed the terrorists to be great heroes to the people. They actually blessed the terrorists.

This should not surprise anyone.

Most - if not all, of national Arab leadership publicly condemned the al Aqsa terror perpetrated last Friday. They want to make certain that there is no explosion of violence. At the same time, there is a call for revolution and shouts about Israel taking over al Aqsa.

Here is how the problem breaks down: National Arab leaders realize the need to keep calm - but local leaders feel the need to feed the terrorist frenzy. Local leaders want to connect to every local resident.

This tension is dramatic. But - and this is important, it remains clear that national leadership takes priority.


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Arab Leaders Mostly Silent about Al Aqsa
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

After Friday's terror attack on the Temple Mount, Israel closed the mosque --but only temporarily. By Sunday it was already open, albeit with increased security in the outside area. Israel can only secure the inside area because the large inside area, where the mosque and the Dome of the Rock are situated, is under the control of Jordan.

The Muslim world has weighed in on the closure... some silently, some critical and some critical of the silence.

Cartoons are very telling.

The Saudis have been silent, but Saudi newspaper Al Wattan shows a picture of a star of David in the shape of a Devil devouring Al Aqsa.

Al Quds al Arabi, which is published out of London, depicts an ostrich burying its head while al Aqsa is on TV - filled with blood. The ostrich is Arab leadership.

One very telling cartoon from facebook has a Palestinian youth telling Arab leaders that al Aqsa is in danger. The leaders are fat and drinking wine. One asks the other what the kid is talking about. The second answers that al Aqsa is in Qatar.

The commentary is clear.

Arab leaders do not see the danger that other, mostly Palestinians, want to foment. There is a long history of al Aqsa being the catalyst for riots and uprisings and the murder of Israelis. There are some in the Arab world that want to renew and revitalize that chain of events.

It seems that the leaders do not want to go along with this call to incitement and are trying to quell possible explosions.

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Direct Flights form Israel to Saudi Arabia- Maybe
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Minister of Transportation, a Druze named Ayoub Kara, has suggested direct flights from Israel to Saudi Arabia exclusively to accommodate Hajj pilgrims.

Ideally, the flights would be direct and nonstop. The next best alternative would be to have the flights touchdown in Jordan before continuing on to Saudi Arabia.

This year the Hajj begins on August 30th and ends on September 4th.
Obviously there are no diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia - but there certainly is exceptional and continued real communication taking place behind closed doors.

About 6,000 Israelis travel to Mecca each year as part of the Hajj. The distance between Mecca and Tel Aviv is about 1,000 miles. These flights would make the pilgrims' trip so much easier. They would be a special set of charter flights to serve a specific population for a specific purpose and a special, limited, goal.

Interestingly, there is precedent for the flights. The first person to make the direct flight from Saudi Arabia to Tel Aviv was US President Donald Trump on his first international trip as president. He flew directly from Saudi Arabia to Israel while all the planes accompanying him had to stop over in Cyprus.

If these flights are approved, it could pave the way for more expanded relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, or, like the flights themselves, it could be a one time, limited run exception.

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Bastille Day & Trump
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

For those who don't know -- President Trump is still in Europe.

On Friday, July 14, 2017 US President Donald Trump will be the featured guest at the Bastille Day celebrations in Paris. President Emmanuel Macron, the newly elected president of France, invited him to be the guest of honor.

While in Paris, Macron and Trump will discuss how they can best work together.

Bastille Day in France is like the 4th of July in the United States. The day memorializes the storming of the Bastille by democratic revolutionaries as they retook France from the aristocracy.

The French Revolution was the beginning of democracy in France and the stimulus for the movement of democratization in the Western world. It was the springboard for the mass transformation of the West into a democracy.
It was the first, it was the model.

While in Paris, Donald Trump will be at the epicenter of European news. In the United States, however, this trip by the US president will probably not even be a blip in the news cycle.

That's a shame, because this visit resonates with symbolism - it heralds US President Donald Trump as the leader of Western democracy.

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Gulf States Continue to Pressure Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE - the four Gulf states that continue to isolate Qatar - have made an announcement: Despite the US / Qatar agreement that was signed by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and the Emir of Qatar al Thani to stop all monetary support of terror, they - the four nations are going to monitor Qatar very carefully.

They have also called for the ousting of Qatar from the anti-ISIS coalition, the group of countries under US leadership fighting ISIS.

This is what the Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman said in a meeting of the anti-ISIS coalition in Washington, DC: "It is unacceptable for the coalition to have amongst its members states that support terrorism or advocate for it in their media."

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid, who is heading the Egyptian delegation in Washington, continued to say: "The decision by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain to boycott Qatar-a coalition member-is in accordance with that principle."

The four Gulf states are cranking up the pressure on Qatar. At the same time, the United States is trying to ease the situation.

The four really want Qatar to stop supporting terror and to stop supporting Iran.

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Iran Opens Tenders for Oil Exploration
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is opening 14 new gas and oil exploration tenders.
Iranians are hoping to entice foreign energy companies to foot the bill to discover new gas and oil sources and then partner with Iran in the profits of the new wells.

This is a very important move for Iran.

Iran wants to increase production and make themselves an even larger supplier of natural gas and oil.

Many companies from many nations have expressed interest in bidding for the rights to partner with Iran. Total from France has already signed a deal with Iran this week. Lukoil from Russian is very interested as is Maersk from Denmark.

So are Britain's BP, Austria's OMV and Russia's Gazprom. Italy's Edison and Malaysia's Petronas are also vying for the opportunity to partner with Iran.

There is no doubt that the 14 tenders will be very lucrative for the companies as well as for Iran.

The big question is if how these relationships will develop given the anti-
Western and anti-foreign involvement sentiments within Iran. If their attitude was just a stance Iran adopted in response to Western sanctions, it is all in the past because sanctions have been lifted. But if there really is an anti-Western and anti-foreign bent in Iran, then the investors could very likely lose their investments.


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Sisi Accepts 2 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

President al Sisi of Egypt told Palestinian President Abbas yesterday that he accepts the two-state solution.

The two had a meeting in Cairo and the Egyptian president explained that he was in favor of a Palestinian state and an Israeli state based on the '67 borders.

This is a tremendous step forward.

In essence, Egypt is saying that they want a resolution to the Palestinian problem and urging Abbas to move. The important point is that with a resolution other issues in the Middle East can and will fall into place and begin to be resolved.

Of course al Sisi also said that the Palestinian state would have its capital in Jerusalem.

An agreement with Israel mean that the Palestinians would be able to secure their future and that Arab leaders would be able to focus their attention on the other issues within the Arab world that require their time and energy.

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Bibi Takes a Phone Call
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Indian Prime Minister Modi had a very successful trip to Israel. Both Israel and India agree that they have concretized a very strong set of objectives based on shared values.

Before this trip the two nations got along well, but there was an implicit understanding that India needed to accommodate to the Arab world. India needed Arab oil and markets. So India needed to take sides and the side they took was not Israel.

However, during this trip the tone and the spirit was one of mutual and total friendship.

On Thursday, just before the end of his trip, Modi and Netanyahu were walking on the beach near Haifa when Netanyahu interrupted their conversation and took a phone call. Who is so important that one prime minister would take a call and interrupt a meeting with another prime minister? No-it was not Netanyahu's wife Sarah.

The call was from Putin.

Putin called Netanyahu on the eve of his first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump. I suppose Putin wanted to pick Netanyahu's brain on how to deal with Trump and get updates on the situation in Syria.

Foreign diplomacy at its best!


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ISIS Not a Cyber Threat
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

It has become pretty clear that ISIS does not have a serious hacking branch. They do not have a cyber attack team that can threaten the West in any serious way.

Yes, they communicate with one another using encrypted software like WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal and Wire. But they cannot really hack. The style of hacking used by ISIS is termed "kiddie hack" or "fledgling hack." That is not a compliment. They use preexisting programs and do not create any real threat.

Up until now ISIS' computer hacking success has been "denial of service" attacks. Denial of service is a cyber attack that floods a site and brings it down. Even this is old. They use windows programs and multiple servers and the best of these use bots and botnets.

ISIS does not cover their cyber hacking tracks well. They use proxies and cyber-criminals. Both of these are very simple to crack.

ISIS has been working the cyber angle for three years and after all that time they are successful only their communication.

Individuals around the world might do ISIS a favor and hack for them -- but there is no actual cyber threat from ISIS.

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Misspelled Terrorism on the Memorial
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday, Columbia City, Indiana uncovered their new Vietnam memorial.
Part of the memorial is a bench and at the foot of the bench is written the word Terrorism.

But "terrorism" was misspelled. The word had an addition "i" so it read Terriorism.

Ty Murphy, the designer of the memorial, said that it was a minor and small issue. He said it was a "pretty small thing to worry about" but, never the less, phones have been ringing "off the hook."

The designer said that the mistake would either be fixed or the bench would be replaced. In the meantime, he put a piece of gaffer's tape on the extra "I". He thinks that for now, it looks ok.

The truth is that misspelling a word - especially a word that resonates as much as the word "terrorism" does is not a small or minor thing at all.

It's a big deal, a very big deal.


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Israeli Hospitals Hit by Cyber Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli hospitals were recently hit by a cyber attack. It was originally thought that eight Israeli hospitals were targeted but the prime minister’s office has reported that actually, only two hospitals were affected.

The names of those two hospitals have yet to be made public. Everyone involved has clearly confirmed that there has been no security risk and that the hospitals were only briefly affected. Hospital computers were quickly treated and further protected.

This attack was not connected to the massive attack which took place the day before. The GoldenEye virus, aka Petya, hit ports all around the world including Mumbai and Los Angeles. The virus attacked and disabled thousands of computers even hitting a chocolate factory in Australia.

GoldenEye is a ransomware improvement of the Petya ransomware virus. It originated in Ukraine.

The virus that hit Israel was not a ransomware which is when the computer is taken over and you need to pay to get control back of your own computers.
This was an invasion to see and disrupt.

Israel says that no damage was done and all the computers that were attacked are now protected and back up and running.

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Iran Anti Trump Cartoon Competition
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Iran's cartoon competition about the Holocaust?

The same people are organizing a cartoon competition about Donald Trump.

The competition opened in Teheran on Monday. Some of the 1,600 cartoons submitted to the competition used Nazi and Hitler images to depict the US president.

First prize is $1500.

Iran is making fun of Trump. That's good news.

It means that Donald Trump and America are doing something right. Iranians are feeling the pressure of the United States upon them and they are responding by turning America and the American president into a target of ridicule and of humor.

With both the Holocaust cartoon competition and this competition lampooning President Trump, Iranians are trying to change history by challenging world leadership and the role of the United States - especially the role of President Trump, in world affairs.

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Assad on New Bank Note
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Syria is printing a 2,000 pound bank note.

Until now their largest denomination was a 1,000 pound note.

This new note has --- you guessed it --- a picture of Bashar Assad on it. The 1,000 note has a picture of father, Hafez Assad.

The banknote went into circulation on Sunday.

The release of this new note transmits a very important message from the president of Syria. Assad is feeling very secure. Even those trying to oust him in Syria still use Syrian bank notes. They are using notes with his father's face printed on them, and now they will be using notes with his face.

Assad clearly and firmly believes that he is in Syria to stay.

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Indian PM To Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Prime Minister Modi of India will make history when he arrives in Israel on the first trip ever of an Indian prime minister to Israel. Modi will spend three days in meetings in Israel.

India has historically been very quiet about their good relations with Israel and very public about their ties with the Palestinians and the Arab world. Arafat was a regular guest in India. Abbas just made a trip there.
India may have pledged and delivered generous support to the Palestinians - but when all is said and done, India is a partner with Israel. They buy $1 billion a year of military equipment and training from Israel.

Even more important right now is an Israeli program to help alleviate food shortages in India.

Israeli has created 26 agricultural centers in 15 Indian states to help improve the growth of staples by efficiently providing food. This will aid by boosting the production of vegetables, mangos and pomegranates.

This $100 billion program will benefit both Israel and India.

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Iran is the Hottest Spot on Earth
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

When I say "things are heating up," I am usually speaking metaphorically.
But not this time.

Things are really heating up in Iran - not figuratively but quite literally. It is really hot.

Yesterday the temperature in the southwestern Iranian city of Ahvaz reached 128.7 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 53.7 Centigrade. That is one of the hottest temperatures ever recorded - anywhere in the world.

The hottest temperature ever recorded was in July of 1913 in Death Valley, California where the temperature reached 134 F. While that's the recorded temperature, it's doubtful that it was a true reading. When you take into account the other heat and the real feel, the temperature was probably more 142 F.

Ahvaz is so hot one might think it was a ghost town - but it is home to 1.3 million Iranians.

The name of the town, Ahvaz, means the market of the Khuzis, a local Iranian tribe.


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Hamas Creating Buffer w Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leadership in Gaza is creating a buffer zone between them and Egypt. The Hamas Interior Ministry has begun construction on the zone.

The objective of the buffer zone is to make certain that no one and nothing is smuggled from Gaza into Egypt or from Egypt into Gaza.

The buffer zone is going to be 100 meters wide. Anything that might possibly obscure someone or something from being seen or allow something or someone to hide is being bulldozed. Everything is being knocked down.

The decision to build this buffer zone came about as a result of a meeting between Hamas leaders and Egyptian intelligence chiefs. It is part of an agreement. Leadership in Gaza needs to control its border and prevent ISIS and weapons from coming into Egypt.

In return for securing the border and keeping ISIS out of Egypt, Gaza will get relief. Egypt will provide electricity to the strip which has been having difficulty providing electricity - Gazans receive only three hours of electricity a day.

Egypt has also promised to open their border crossings on a more scheduled and regular basis.

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Iran Now Selling Gas to Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is now exporting natural gas to Iraq. The Iranians are moving 7 million cubic meters of natural gas to Iraq per day. They hope to slowly increase to 35 million over the next few months.

Iran began sending the gas on Wednesday. It travels through a pipeline that goes directly through Basra, in southern Iraq on the border of Iran, to Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Iraq really needs the gas because their electric grid has been so devastated by the years of conflict.

"The long-awaited project finally went on stream after four years of delay due to the challenging security situation in war-torn Iraq" explained Amir Hussein Zamaninia, the deputy at the National Iranian oil company. The quote was reported in the Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, which is the official news agency of Iran.

Until yesterday, Turkey was the only country receiving natural gas from Iran. Now Iran has two important clients.

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Israel US Cyber Terror Pact
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the US have signed a cyber security pact. The pact was signed during a cyber security conference.

Present at the conference was Tom Bossert, President Trump's adviser on Homeland Security. Bossert explained the importance of partnering in order to curb cyber terror. He said their intention was "stopping adversaries in networks and identifying ways to hold bad actors responsible for [their cyber terror activity]."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the conference saying that one fifth of the world's investment in cyber security is invested in Israel. He said that Israel is home to tens of companies that deal with cyber security.

Everyday Israel is attacked by 10's of thousands of cyber threats. The country is well equipped to repel those attacks.

Participation in this conference signals a serious step forward in global coordination against cyber terror.

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Iran Defends Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made a public defense of Qatar.

Rouhani explained that Qatar has unfairly been isolated. He said the "siege of Qatar is unacceptable." This was reported on IRNA, an official media arm of the Iranian establishment.

This is what he said: "Tehran stands with the Qatari nation and government ... We believe that if there is a conflict between regional countries, pressure, threats or sanctions are not the right way to resolve differences." IRNA quoted Rouhani as giving over this message to Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, in a telephone call.

The president also told the emir, "The siege of Qatar is unacceptable to us ... The airspace, land and sea of our country will always be open to Qatar as a brotherly and neighboring country."

This should not be a surprise. Qatar has upset the apple cart. They have come out in support of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah and Hamas and are suggesting that Iran be taken seriously as a regional power.

Now Iran is now coming to their defense.

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Assad Visits Leaves Enclave for Hama
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

President Bashar Assad of Syria has been ensconced in his capital stronghold for years.

Assad seldom leaves his palace. Since 2011 when the civil conflict erupted, the Syrian dictator has wisely remained in the most secure and safe haven he has to avoid assassination.

But today Assad ventured to Hama, a large city in South West of Syria.
Hama was host to some of the largest protests against Assad at the beginning of conflict that has embroiled Syria for the past 6 years.

The Syrian president ventured to Hama for the final prayers of Ramadan and the beginning of the three day festival of Eid al Fitr which marks the end of Ramadan.

This is a telling and important move.

The choice of Hama, above all other Syrian cities, illustrates that Assad feels he is in control of the symbol of the revolt. The decision to leave his enclave means that Bashar Assad believes that the tide of the conflict has shifted enough for him to be safe in the focal point of the rebellion against him.

This may indeed be the beginning of the end of the conflict and the return of Assad to the undisputed leader of Syria.

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PA Justifies Paying Terrrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority continues to pay families of terrorists. They pay more to the families of those killed in the act than those in prison, but everyone gets paid.

This is a major bone of contention for the United States. President Trump has told the PA to put a stop to the payments and Abbas said that they had stopped - but they really haven't.

Now spokespeople of the PA are claiming that they cannot stop. Yesterday, Nabil Shaat, the official PA spokesman of PA President Abbas said that Palestinians have a "social responsibility" to pay the families of prisoners in Israeli jails because they are "political prisoners," and that the payouts are the PA's way of "look(ing) after innocent people affected by the incarceration or killing of their loved ones as a result of the military occupation."

We have reached an impasse.

According to Palestinian logic, the PA must pay terrorists and the terror is to be blamed on Israel. The rest of us know that this is ridiculous. It's Israel's fault that Palestinians blow themselves up? It's Israel's fault that they try to blow up, or stab, or ram into and run down Israelis? Come on now.

There is no excuse for murder.

It seems clear that the PA is excusing and justifying their payments to terrorists by justifying the mass murder of innocent Israelis.

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Israel to Evacuate 100,000's of Lebanese
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is gearing up for a new conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

We have already heard that that Israel will now be able to accomplish in only two days what they accomplished in 34 days during the last conflict with Hezbollah.

Israeli generals are saying that they have great surprises for Hezbollah.

Israel's IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot said that, in the event of conflict, Israel will need to evacuate hundreds of thousands of civilians. He said, "The moment we know the enemy goes into urban terrain, it becomes a matter of morals and values. There are hundreds of thousands in the civilian population. We'll need to evacuate them ... and we'll have to do that as quickly as possible. We need to preserve legitimacy while fighting."

Each time an Israeli IDF general talks about the conflict, I am struck by two things - improved Israeli technology and the conviction that evacuating innocents in order to avoid as much "collateral damage" as possible holds a priority position in Israel's plan.

Israel already has the evacuation plan in place. It is a practical plan based on the moral conviction that civilians not become "collateral damage" in a conflict with Hezbollah.

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Why Israel Saves Syrians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Since the conflict began in Syria, at least 3000 if not 10,000 Syrians have been brought into Israeli hospitals for treatment.

Why would Israel accept Syrians and why would Syrians want to go to Israel. After all, Israel is their sworn enemy.

This is how a fighter for the Free Syrian Army, a fighter named Ramadan, who was shot and badly wounded and went to Israel for help describes the situation:

"All the world is killing us, all the world." "All my life I was told Israel is my enemy. I grew up like that, to believe that Israel is the devil. But all the world is against us, and only Israel is our friend. The world is killing us. Israel is saving us."

"One of my team had a friend from a village near the Israeli border, so they took me there right away. They put me on a donkey. The donkey carried me up to the Israeli border. And then the Israeli soldiers brought me here."

Imagine the situation. Sworn enemies - and yet Israel is saving their lives.


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Iran Explains Missiles & Warns Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has explained their missile attack into Syria. Missile were launched from Iran they flew over Iraq and hit Syria.

The adviser to the Iranian foreign minister explained the attack by saying that "the presence of Americans in the region is illegal; the US should leave Syria sooner or later."

He continued, "The Saudis and Americans are the main recipients of this message."

The adviser explained that Israel "is the main enemy" of Iran, despite the attack targeting militant groups who Iran blames for the Tehran attacks, and adding that Israel now "has to worry about (its actions)."

He further explained that Israel must understand that Iran can - and actually will, hit Israel. He said. "I think (Israel) understood rockets' messages well." He added, "We are targeting terrorists only, and the countries that support them must know what it means when we use these missiles."

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Iran & China Conduct War Games
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

It is commonplace for countries to perform joint military exercises. It is a way of demonstrating that allies can operate together and work together to achieve military goals.

It is also a way of signaling alliances. Sometimes, rather than being reassuring, that becomes an alarming event.

China and Iran are now involved in joint naval exercises. I learned about their war games from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), an official Iranian news agency.

This is a very dramatic military move. It is no secret that tensions are very high between the United States and Iran and that there are heightened tensions with China.

I monitor the war games of nations very carefully. These games are telling us that the links between China and Iran are very strong.

From Iran's point of view, China is an important friend to have. On the international stage, having China in your corner brings about a huge power boost.

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BBC False Headline Doesn't Say Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The BBC publicly issued a statement of regret -- regret, not apology -- for a horrific headline that neglected to mention 'terror by Palestinians' or the 'murder of an Israeli border patrolwoman' in East Jerusalem.

The false headline read: "Three Palestinians killed after deadly stabbing in Jerusalem."

The BBC responded to outrage and outcry from around the world, including a tweet from Donald Trump Jr. about how false the news was, by issuing the following statement: "We accept that our original headline did not appropriately reflect the nature of the events and subsequently changed it. Whilst there was no intention to mislead our audiences, we regret any offense caused."

The story line is upside down.

According to the BBC headline, the most important element in the story is that three Palestinians were killed. Missing is the fact that the three Palestinians were terrorists and they were killed in the midst of a terror attack perpetrated by them during which they murdered a young female Israeli soldier.

Donald Trump Jr. Tweeted, "You mean after they stabbed a female Israeli police officer to death... right? This is as close to being misleading as possible."

The BBC merely accepted the critique and regretted an offense. They did not deem it appropriate or necessary to issue an apology. As unacceptable as that is, the worst part of their non-apologetic statement is the assertion that they did not intend to mislead. There is no other possible motivation for the false headline than to be misleading.

The BBC intended to reshape the story and deflect responsibility from the murdering terrorist Palestinians and lay it at the foot of Israelis.

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ISIS on Israel's Border
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is losing their strongholds in Iraq and Syria. Israel sees these ISIS losses as a significant threat to their borders. ISIS fighters are being forced to flee and are relocating in areas closer and closer to Israel - like the Golan Heights.

Israel is running cross border exercises into Syria. As they run their exercises, Israel is gathering more information and active intel on ISIS and the several dozen other fighters that are now gathering in the South eastern part of the Syrian Golan Heights.

This area is the nexus of the border between Jordan, Israel and Syria. It is at the Yabuk River which is where the Biblical patriarch Jacob wrestled with the angel.

An elite unit of the Israeli Givati Brigade is in the Golan. The Givati unit is involved in the cross border activity. Normally, Givati is headquartered in the south and specializes in the Gaza Strip. But they also train up north in the Golan to help out in the event that they may be needed there.

In an unusual move, the IDF invited a journalist to observe Givati in the Golan and report on their activity.

Israel is preparing for infiltration or attacks by ISIS. Israel knows that they must be prepared.

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Remember Tora Bora
By Micah Halpern

Thursday, June 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Tora Bora?

Tora Bora was Osama bin Laden's hideout, located in the mountains of Afghanistan. It sits nestled in a labyrinth of caves and tunnels.

ISIS is now attempting to conquer Tora Bora and turn it into their own headquarters.

But the location is not up for grabs. Actually, for certain nefarious groups it is the equivalent of prime real estate.
ISIS is locked in a fierce and deadly battle with the Taliban in the area of Tora Bora.

If ISIS successfully wrestles the bastion from the Taliban, they will not only have a nearly impervious hideaway - just as bin Laden had, but they will have scored a colossal symbolic victory - because bin laden was ensconced there.

ISIS will have out al Qaedad al Qaeda.
Even in the world of terrorists, it's all about location, location, location.

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Indonesia Admits ISIS is All Over
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Indonesia is the country with more Muslims that any other country in the world. Over 240 million Muslims live in Indonesia.

The head of Indonesia's defense said that ISIS has sleeper cells in every single province. General Gatot Nurmantyo gave a press conference yesterday in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital.

He said: "After observation, we see that in almost every province ... there are already ISIS cells, but they are sleeper cells." Nurmantyo also said that "These sleeper cells can easily join up with other radical cells."

Indonesia is joining forces with Malaysia and the Philippines to fight ISIS. They have come to the realization that they must stand up and root out ISIS. If they do not stop them, ISIS will continue to attack their home-front.

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Hamas in Egypt Mending Ties
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas sent a delegation to Egypt to discuss security in Gaza and Egypt.

The delegation was lead by the new head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar. The group met with intelligence leaders in Cairo.

Hamas is trying to mend fences with Egypt. Egypt has closed the border with Gaza and clamped down on the smuggling of people and goods in and out of Gaza into Egypt.

Egypt has traced the arrival of weapons and terrorists from Gaza into the Sinai Desert where they attacked Egyptian civilians and soldiers and made their way to Cairo where they targeted civilians.

Hamas leadership also met with Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan was one of Arafat's strongmen in Gaza. Today he is a rival of PA President Abbas and has been convicted, in absentia, of offending Abbas.

Not too very long ago, Hamas also saw Dahlan as an arch enemy and he had to run for his life after Hamas took power in Gaza in a coup.

This meeting is an attempt to bridge that gap too.

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Hamas is Pushing For Escalation
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A special series of circumstances is stimulating Hamas and other Gaza leaders to go all out in an effort to escalate acts of terror against Israel.

The leadership is pushing hard, sparing no cost to stimulate terror attacks primarily in the West Bank but also in the entirety of Israel.

And it is happening right now.

The situation in Gaza - especially issues with electricity and fresh water and joblessness is reaching a peak. As the summer heat increases, the sense of defeat, frustration and desperation increases.

Now, add Qatar to the equation. Qatar, the most significant of all of Gaza's sponsors, is under pressure. The Qataris have been given notice to stop their support of terror by other Gulf nations as well as by the Sunni and Western world .

And then finally, Israel has begun to build an underground security wall in order to put a final end to the tunneling from Gaza into Israel.

A new leader has assumed leadership of Hamas, His name is Yahyah Sanwar. This is the first real test of his leadership abilities. Sanwar's rhetoric is more radical than the rhetoric of his predecessors. He is known as a firebrand and he is pushing for big, bold, game changing terror attacks against Israel.

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Confilcting Messages from Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Habash is the adviser on religious affairs for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. In his Friday sermon Habash made it very clear that the Western Wall must always remain in Muslim control.

Habash said "It is an Islamic endowment that absolutely cannot belong to non-Muslims." "It is our property and endowment. It is impossible to concede one millimeter of it."

This is a huge issue.

These statements contradict statements made just last week by another Abbas adviser, Jabril Rajoub who spoke on Channel 2 Israel News. Rajoub said that the Western Wall will stay under Jewish control in any agreement with Israel.

This is a classic move by the Palestinians.

Leaders and advisers often say whatever they need to say. It all depends on the audience they are addressing. To the mosque it is one message, to Israelis it is a very different message.

The big question remains. Which one will it be?
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Cobryn Justifes Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Jeremy Cobryn, leader of the Labour Party, who scored a huge victory in yesterday's election, has justified the actions of terrorists who create websites to raise money for terror acts.

Two terrorists admitted to creating websites with the purpose of raising money for the exclusive purpose terror attacks. They were extradited to the United States and were convicted of terror.

In October of 2012 Cobryn said on the Islam Channel that the two terrorists had "done nothing wrong." Cobryn asserted that these two were protected under the concept of freedom of speech. That it was wrong to arrest, extradite and convict them.

Watching him defend the terrorists is simply shocking. It is no wonder that the Labour party is failing and that so many Jews have left the party.

The party must throw Cobryn out... and then they must rebuild.

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Kurds To Vote on Statehood in Sept
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Kurds of Iraq have announced that in September they will vote on seceding from Iraq and creating an independent Kurdish state in the current independent Kurdish region.

This is a huge move.

Marsoud Barzini, president of the Kurdish regional government, made the announcement on his twitter feed.

About 5 million Kurds live in the region. They have been relatively autonomous since the establishment of the new Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. They are very productive and they have great oil reserves.

Tensions emerged when the national government tried to lay claim to the oil revenues. But since the rise of ISIS, the national government has been hands-off the Kurdish region, freeing them to fight ISIS and allowing them to use their oil profits to fight ISIS.

The tide might be turning.

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Israeli Police Raid Bomb Factory
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Just in case you thought that a real sense of calm had settled over Jerusalem and that terror was a thing of the past - here's a reality check.

Israeli Border Police arrested two bomb makers in a midnight raid.

The raid took place in a home located in an Arab village that abuts Jerusalem.

The police confiscated bomb making materials. They assert that, since January, these bomb makers built thirty bombs that were used in acts of terror. Most of the bombs were thrown at Israelis.

The two bomb makers were arrested for making bombs and for exploding them.

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Oil Prices Slip
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The price of oil dropped 39 cents by the end of the day yesterday. Those watching the market are expecting the price to continue to fall.

This happened on the same day that OPEC decided to continue to drop output.

Conventional wisdom would say - when OPEC reduces output, the price of oil should shoot up.

So why has it dropped?

Two reasons.

First, there has been a surge of output from elsewhere in the world filling the gap that is created by OPEC. The US, for example, has increased production by over 10% over the last year. Second, instability in the Middle East is telling the market that OPEC members will not hold to the restrictions on output.

Both of these reasons telegraph a message to the market. This is how we predict markets.

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Russia & Saudis Agree on Oil deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A very special meeting took place recently in Saudi Arabia. Head of the Russia oil company Rosneft Igor, Sechin met with his counterpart Amin Nasser, the head of Saudi oil company Aramco.

This was their very first official meeting. In the past these two powerhouses of oil have spoken - because they were often at the conferences and meetings together, but this was different.

They met in order to develop a working plan to provide oil to Asian markets, especially Indonesia and India.

The idea is that these two mega oil producers work together and not compete to deliver energy to an area of the world in dire need of oil.

It will be a very good investment for them and, because the demand is so high in that part of the world, it will insulate them both from damage should the price of oil drop.

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ISIS Calls for Terror During Ramadan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has been calling for vehicle attacks for several years. They are not alone.

Terrorist leaders across the globe - especially in Gaza and the West Bank, have called for using vehicles as a weapon for a long time.

Even Imams preach about the use of cars, trucks and knives to attack innocent people.

Now that Ramadan has begun ISIS has picked up their messaging.
ISIS has posted videos and other messages - including a poster sized message posted across the internet, imploring people to "kill the citizens of the Crusaders."

The message written in black, also reads "run over them with vehicles." In yellow, in parenthesis, they added (Gain Benefit from Ramadan).

Under that slogan there are pictures of a gun, a knife and a truck with the English words, written in red, next to each item.

At the very bottom of the poster is a translation of all the slogans into Arabic.

ISIS is calling for more terror - take them at their word and expect more, especially in Western Europe.

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A/S in Mt Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The pine cones spelled out words "KILL THE JEWS". And then there was a swastika for added emphasis.

This hateful message was laid out on the retaining wall at a school crosswalk for everyone to see in the beautiful, picturesque, affluent, Pittsburgh suburb of Mt Lebanon.

It was not the first or the second incident of this nature in that neighborhood. A few months ago the girls' bathroom in a local high school was defaced with a similar graffiti message and swastika and the same thing happened at a local playground.

The corner on which the pine cones were arranged is a popular spot for messages. The school crossing often arranges pleasant messages for the children going to school. "HAVE A NICE DAY" is the most common message --- not one of hate.

The house on the corner is up for sale and, for now, no one is living there. The message was discovered at 6:30 AM. After snapping a picture and calling the police, someone transformed the word KILL to LOVE.

This anti-Semitic sentiment is certainly not shared by everyone in the neighborhood. The vast majority of the residents do not, in any way, subscribe to it. The problem is that some hateful person or group of teens in Mt Lebanon is scrawling messages of hate for all to see.

The culprit or culprits need to be apprehended and punished.

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Kuwaiti Arab Anti Terror Vieo Goes Viral
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An anti-terror YouTube video has gone viral. This is the first time anything like this has happened - the 3 minute and 11 second video was made by a Kuwaiti telecom company named Zain.

In just a few days 2.4 million people had watched the video.
Zain, the telecommunication company is actually a regional mobile operator with more than 45 million customers.

Through the voice of a young girl, the video proclaims: "You've filled the cemeteries with our children and emptied our school desks."

The video is an ad that takes a stand against terror.

The song sung in the video contains the following lines: "Worship your God with love, with love not terror." And, "Be tender in your faith, gentle not harsh. Confront your enemy, with peace not war."

This video depicts victims of terror. It implores a terrorist, who made a suicide bombers belt which he wears throughout the video, to stop the murder and embrace a different understanding of Islam.

This video ad is very impressive. So is the response it has received.

Watch the video:


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Trump Yelled at Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Channel 2 News in Israel is reporting that US President Trump yelled at Palestinian President Abbas when they met in Bethlehem.

The quote, as reported in the original Hebrew, went like this: "You lied to me in Washington when you talked about commitment to peace, but the Israelis showed me you were personally responsible for incitement."

The Palestinians deny that there was any shouting and maintain that the conversation was peaceful and productive.

I would venture to say that Trump really did say those words, but in a civil - not loud and lecturing - tone. Both versions are correct and both are incorrect. One version is exaggerating the issue, the other is minimizing it.

Suffice it to say that President Trump is not happy that official PA media sites and networks are still inciting terror and that the PA is still paying regular salaries to the families of suicide bomber and the families of terrorists in Israeli prisons.

Just this weekend Norway went ballistic when they discovered that money they gave for a women's center in the West Bank town of Burka, located north of Nablus, was being named for Dalal Mughrabi, a female terrorist who participated in the massacre of 37 Israelis on the Coastal Road in 1978.

Norway has asked the PA to give their money back.

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Iran Leader Attacks Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, lashed out at Saudi Arabia. The Ayatollah said that the Saudis are being used and exploited by the Americans and hurting the Muslim people and all of Islam.

The exact expression he used was that the Saudis are "being cow milked" by the infidel Americans.

The Supreme Leader delivered these rebukes to Saudi Arabia as he marked the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.

He said: "These people [the Saudis] appear to believe in the Holy Quran... but in practice they act against its teachings."

"They are close with the infidels and offer the enemy the money they should be using to improve the lives of their own people." He said "The stupid Saudi government thinks it can attract the friendship of enemies by giving them money."

"But in reality there is no closeness and, as the Americans have said, they are just there to pump them for money like a milking cow, and later slaughter them." Khamenei added that host of Islam holy sites is Saudi Arabia and they are "cruel toward believers and kind toward pagans."

The critique is not surprising - but with these remarks, the Supreme Leader raised the level of tension and hatred and that in itself very powerful, significant and certainly noteworthy.


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Iran's Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is extremely hopeful that their recent election will bring in new investments.

Iranians feel that the election signaled that Iran as a whole - and reelected President Hassan Rouhani in particular, will ramp up the moves that will open Iran and allow for interaction with the West.

Iran is working hard to improve oil production to 5 million barrels a day. With their expanded output Iran has become the third largest oil producer in OPEC.

Iran is actively courting industry and corporations and sweetening the pot for those interested in investments and trade.

Iran's real hope is that the increased output will provide the much needed money that will enable them to buy whatever they need and build whatever they want.

Iran is moving closer to their goal - and that means there is real danger on the horizon.

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What To Do About those Who Celebrate Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's lead editorial in The New York Times condemned the terror in Manchester.

The conclusion they came to is that worldwide unity needs to be the main strategy for confronting terror.

Quoting the editorial: "That spirit should bring together all citizens, all countries, who---whatever their faith or birthplace---grieve for the innocents cut down Monday night in Manchester."

This is a valiant idea. Uniting those around the world who condemn attacks and mourn victims is a major step.

But there's a problem. What about those who celebrate the deaths. What do you do about the serious percentage of the population who applaud acts of terror.

Until we come up with a real plan to confront the threat of terror, terror will continue for years to come.


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PA Media Calls Israeli Reception was Immature
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian media is taking pride in their high class behavior and in the way in which they received President Trump in Bethlehem.

In contrast to their behavior, on Palestinian TV the press spoke about how the Israelis were childish and immature in the way they received Trump at Ben Gurion Airport.

Israeli member of Knesset Oren Hassan took a selfie with the president. Then Israel's minister of security, Gilad Erdan, told the president that the terror attack which had just been perpetrated was actually a traffic accident. Erdan wanted to show off - but did not have all the information. The truth became clear a few minutes later.

The Palestinians explained that their reception for the US president in Bethlehem was dignified and classy and showcased the great tradition of Palestinian Arab culture of hospitality.

The Israelis, they said, were childish.

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No Direct Flight From Saudi Arabia to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The maiden Trump Presidential Trip has, so far, been a success.

Here's an interesting tidbit that has not been covered.

On Monday morning, when the US president departed Riyadh, his plane traveled directly to Ben Gurion Airport in Israel.

However, everyone accompanying the president in planes that would normally follow the president, did not make that same direct, non-stop flight, from Saudi Arabia to Israel.

That's because no planes - other than the US president's plane - can travel directly between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Everyone else made a short stop in Cyprus. They just touched down and took off.

Progress, when it comes to diplomacy, can be slow moving.

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Trump's Trip-- A Deal is Coming
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump's trip to Israel and visit with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is already a success.

Abbas has declared that he is interested in talks with Israel and will return to the table.

Trump's meeting in Saudi Arabia with Arab and Muslim leaders also gave the US president - and by extension all of us, as well - new reason for hope in two very important fields. President Trump saw the Arab world's willingness to accept Israel and their motivation to destroy ISIS and other extremist groups.

Now the real challenge emerges.

How does the transition from the idea to a reality get under way?
How do you get the parties to actually work together and create a deal.

Previous US leaders have gotten the parties to talk, but getting them to move beyond talking has always been where it all broke down.


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Iran Votes in Liberal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has voted - and voted with gusto.

Incumbent Rouhani defeated all other candidates with a resounding victory, garnering a significant 57% of the vote, leaving the other four candidates in the dust.

Ebrahim Raisi, the most serious of all contenders for the position of president of Iran, was far more conservative and representative of a point of view more in line with the style of past president Ahmadinejad than of Rouhani.

Clearly, hands down, Iranian masses rejected that direction. The people of Iran signified that they want to continue down the path of reaching out and embracing the world as opposed to snubbing and spiting on the world.

Rouhani tweeted a message to Iranians - even though twitter is outlawed in Iran. Many, many people, especially young Iranians, follow twitter by getting around the block.

His tweet read: "Great nation of Iran, you are the winner of the election. I humbly bow down before you. I will remain loyal to my promises to you."

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Saudis Say They Don't Mind Sharing Intel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday, the same day that the Justice Department announced that a special counsel would investigate the "Russian Connection" to the Trump campaign, a very interesting - and supportive, comment was made by a very surprising individual.

Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir defended Trump with regard to sharing intelligence with Russia.

Jubeir, who will be meeting with Trump next week when the US president visits Saudi Arabia, said that President Trump can certainly discuss intelligence with Russia during a White House meeting last week. He said that the US president had an "absolute right" to share "facts pertaining to terrorism and airline flight safety."

He said: "We share a very, very large amount of intelligence with the United States and vice versa," "We have had no hesitation about doing so and we will not have any hesitation about continuing to do so."

Appointing former FBI director Robert Mueller to investigate action taken by the Trump team during the campaign has little - and yet everything - to do with the Saudi statement.

The Saudis are saying: let's get serious and let's act like adults. They are saying: enough already, there is serious business at hand, let's get to the real problems we face and not waste time on games and name calling.

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Elections in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:


Presidential elections in Iran take place tomorrow - Friday. While there are six candidates running for office, only two of them count.

The two contenders to watch in this election are:

#1: the incumbent, current moderate president of Iran, 68 year old Hassan Rouhani

#2: his arch rival, 56 year old staunch conservative Ebrahim Raisi

Terms like "moderate" and "conservative" are relative and not very helpful when they are attached to Iran, but the terms do, at least, put the two candidates on a continuum.

Rouhani's party is actually called the Moderation Party. Raisi seems to be more in line with the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Grand Ayatollah. To date, the Supreme Leader has not endorsed either candidate.

Iran is not really a democracy. The Grand Ayatollah holds all the power, but he cedes much authority to the president who seems to be elected by a popular vote.

So the real question is whether Rouhani's openness to the West - which is what brought down the sanctions -- is more powerful than the conservative Raisi’s point of view which is to spit in the eye of the West and have Iran do whatever Iran must do.

Has the relief caused by lifting the sanctions been good enough? Or has Iran suffered because of the openness?

History is on Rouhani's side. No incumbent has ever lost an election in modern Iran since 1981. But you never know.


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Al-Bashir Invited to Trump Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has thrown a monkey wrench into the Trump visit.

It seems that Sudanese President Omar al Bashir has been invited to the meeting with Trump and 50 Muslim leaders from the Middle East, Africa and Asia scheduled for this coming Sunday.

Al Bashir is wanted by the International Court for Human Rights in the Hague for war crimes, mass murder and massacres in Darfur during the civil war there.

It will be a major problem for US President Trump to speak to and be greeted by a group that includes a war criminal.

Trump cannot be present in the same room as al Bashir. I look forward to seeing how this plays out. Will the Saudis un-invite al Bashir or will President Trump demure and back out of the meeting? My money is on dumping al Bashir.

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US Officials Say Western Wall Not In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There are reports of tensions being high - even explosive, between Israel and the Trump team, all revolving around the upcoming Trump trip to Israel. There are many issues to be resolved. Included among them are protocols and what is required of every visiting head of state.

Most troubling of all is that during a preparation meeting for the US President's trip to Jerusalem, the Israelis were unceremoniously told to leave during the Trump team's field trip to the Western Wall.

According to the reports the team from the US embassy told the Israelis that they must leave the Western Wall area which, they explained, is not in Israel - it's the West Bank.

The two American embassy diplomats said "We're asking you to leave, and we need to be left alone. Israeli officials cannot be here; this is not your territory, it's the West Bank. This is a private visit by the President and has nothing to do with you. It's none of your business."

To make it clear this was all about planning President Trump's trip to the Wall. Which these US officials say is not "Israeli territory."

And that's not all.

The US team gave Israel an ultimatum - either Trump visits the Holocaust Memorial called Yad Vashem or he has a visit with President Rivlin at the presidential residence. In the end Trump will do both, but it looks like the visit to Yad Vashem will be just 15 minutes long.

There is also a dispute over Masada. Netanyahu wants to speak on the mountain top for seven minutes and make the visit to Masada the center piece of the Trump visit. That was not part of the original Trump plan.

In the end, it will all be resolved. Even planning a trip requires diplomacy.

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$300 Bill Weapons Deal for Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Trump foreign policy is moving so quickly it is hard to keep track.

The US and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an arms deal worth over a $100 billion, a deal that could be worth over $300 billion during the course of the next 10 years.

The deal includes fighter jets, naval ships and much more.

This deal will be inked on the eve of President Trump's May 19th arrival in Saudi Arabia. It will be his first, official, foreign, state visit of his presidency.

A White House official has assured everyone that this deal will not challenge Israel's qualitative edge in the region. He said: "It's good for the American economy but it will also be good in terms of building a capability that is appropriate for the challenges of the region. Israel would still maintain an edge."

Israel will be the second stop on the president's trip.

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Eurovision & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Eurovision is an international song competition. Different countries send one representative each, all vying for the title of Eurovision Winner. Finals were held in Kiev, Ukraine. The winner was Portugal.

Nearly 300 million people watched this event.

Israel made it to the finals. Of the 26 finalists, in the end Israel came out 23rd.

Imri Ziv, a 25 year old performer from Hod Hasharon, represented Israel singing a song in English called "I Feel Alive".

Over the years Israel has won the Eurovision three times. They won with performers singing the songs entitled "Halleluya," "Abani Bi", and "Diva". One British paper wrongly reported that Israel was pulling out of the competition.

Once upon a time the music was the centerpiece of the competition. Now it is about the performance and that means glitz, videos and tech.

As that old favorite goes, "The Times They Are A'Changing".

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Hezbollah Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah is making serious threats.

Yesterday Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said that in the next conflict between Israel and Hezbollah the conflict will be, not just in Lebanon, but also be in Israel.

According to Nasrallah, Israel "is scared and worried of any future confrontation ... and knows that it could be inside the occupied Palestinian territories." He continued saying "There will be no place that is out of reach of the rockets of the resistance or the boots of the resistance fighters."

The implication is that Hezbollah's rockets will strike Israel at the most populated regions in Israel. According to intelligence sources Hezbollah has amassed hundreds of thousands of rockets. Some say over 100,000, others say 200,000.

With that kind of an arsenal Hezbollah can shoot at Israel non-stop and Israel will be hard put to defend herself.

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Cyber Terrorist, Librarian Arrested in England
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Great Britain arrested a cyber terrorist named Samata Ullah, he is 34 years old.

Ullah was the cyber librarian- one stop shopping for everything you need as a terrorist. He taught anyone and everyone about missiles, bombs encryption and whatever terrorists need to know. He even hid h
is material in cuff-links.

Head of the counter terrorism squad in England Commander Dean Haydon said this about Samata Ullah:

"He was an internet terrorist. He had set up a self-help library for terrorists around the world and they were using his library.

"There was guidance on encryption, ways to avoid detection from police and security services, expert tuition around missile systems and a vast amount of propaganda.

"He was self-taught. He has accessed it online himself and compiled a lot of material and put it into his own library.

"He has created a one-stop shop for terrorists.

"In my view he was a very dangerous individual although he was operating from his bedroom.

Mr Haydon added: "Just because Ullah's activity was in the virtual world, we never underestimated how dangerous his activity was.

"He sat in his bedroom in Wales and created online content with the sole intention of aiding people who wanted to actively support Isis and avoid getting caught by the authorities.

"This is just the sort of information that may have helped people involved in planning devastating, low technical level attacks on crowded places as we have seen in other cities across the world."

Samata Ullah was arrested in September with the help of the Kenyan police who told British police about him. The information has only been released now.

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Israel's New Cyber Unit to Protect Children
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel introduced a new police bureau yesterday. It is a special investigation and response unit for cyber crimes against minors. This unit will focus on cyber bullying and sexual abuse.

The stats on cyber crime in Israel are devastating.

One out of every four Israeli children has been subjected to humiliation, shaming and online bullying.

One in every five children Israeli children has been sexually solicited on line.

As if that was not bad enough - one in every ten children Israeli child has been sexually harassed, blackmailed or had their identities stolen while on line.

The new unit will have 100 investigators and will have a 24 hour hot line. Minors will be able to dial 105 and report an attack, an abuse, or any form of cyber bullying.

This unit has been in the planning stages for several years. Now it will be a reality.

It is essential that this cyber crime wave against minors in Israel be brought to an end. It is essential that Israeli police crack down and stop this cyber abuse. The children of Israel must be protected.

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Iran Tests Torpedo in Straits of Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iran tested a new torpedo - a high speed torpedo.

The Iranian missile was tested in the Straits of Hormuz, totally within Iranian water. No international protocols were violated.

The missile is called the Hoot, it travels 250 miles per hour with a range of 6 miles.

The West, understandably worried, is watching the Hoot very closely. Remember, one third of the world's oil travels through the Straits of Hormuz every day.

This torpedo test is another example of Iran flexing its muscles in the Straits. The West knows well that they are held captive by Iran in this enormously strategic and essential waterway.

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US Weapons in Kurdish Hands
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Military Times reported that US weapons are being used by Kurdish fighters in Syria to fight ISIS and al Qaeda.

The Kurds are using US manufactured night-vision goggles, rifles and advanced optics.

The journal also said that Kurdish fighters are using advanced combat helmets, digital camouflage uniforms, Patagonia cold-weather attire, chest rigs that hold ammunition, body armor and first-aid kits, plus M4 rifles with various modifications, including infrared lasers used for targeting during nighttime raids.

According to the journal "American-made rifle optics and visible lasers have been provided to other Syrian rebel groups. While no particular organizations were specified, Lt. Cmdr. Lara Bollinger told Military Times that those products include a scoped optic that special operators commonly call an ELCAN, an EOTech holographic sight and the AN/PEQ 5 visible laser."

These weapons will help Kurdish fighters as they attack Raqqa. The weapons raise the quality of Kurdish fighters to the equipment level of US Army Rangers. That having been said, it is against the law to simply give sophisticated US weapons to non-US groups.

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Watch ISIS in Sinai
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to ISIS, the Sinai Peninsula is the place to watch.

ISIS has expanded in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. They are now training there and operating against locals as well as launching attacks against other Egyptian targets. ISIS has shot missiles from the Sinai into Israel and even launched cross border attacks into Israel.

ISIS fighters attacked a family in Yamit, a village in Sinai. They murdered the mother on the spot and kidnapped her husband and two sons.

On Saturday the heads of the father and his two children were left on the street in Rafah, in Sinai. Their bodies were also found and taken to a hospital to be identified.

ISIS has been on the attack - Egypt is now fighting back.

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Went Into Labor at Justin Bieber Concert
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Justin Bieber performed in Tel Aviv to a sellout crowd. It was the talk of Israel. Not just the performance - but also, maybe even especially, the traffic jams it generated throughout Tel Aviv.

A 23 year old ultra-Orthodox woman name Reut Ziskind, from Bnei Brak, was one of the concert attendees. Of all the people in the Ganei Yehudah stadium - even though she had to leave the performance after hearing only the back-up performers - Reut probably had the most memorable experience of all.

And that's because, in the middle of the concert, Reut went into labor.

"I wasn't having contractions, so I didn't think I needed to be resting," said Ziskind.

"At first I was disappointed that I didn't get to see the show because I was going into labor, but now I am happy because I have an amazing daughter," she said.

"I'm a modern Haredi woman, so [ don't ] be surprised, there are a lot of Haredi women who like Justin Bieber. When I bought the tickets I was sure I would give birth before the concert or after it, but I never believed I would give birth during the concert. If I had had a son, I would have named him Justin, but I had a girl and we named her Hadar," said Ziskind.

This entire story illustrates an important point. Haredim do not fit easily into one stereotypical group. They are not all what they appear to be. Classic stereotypes no longer apply.

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Trump Tell Abbas Enough
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

US President Trump hosted Palestinian President Abbas yesterday. They held a press conference after their meeting. The message was hopeful.

Donald Trump believes he can bring Israel and the Palestinians together and create a deal.

The most important part of the meeting was that Trump insisted that Abbas stop inciting hatred and paying terrorists and the families of terrorists. The US president said no more naming of parks, events, schools and stadiums after terrorists. He said change the names of venues already named after terrorists.

The best paying job in all the Palestinian Authority is being a terrorist or a family member of a terrorist. They get monthly stipends and - in a macabre and evil way, there is a calculus determining how much they get. The more Jews killed the more money received. For injuring Jews, they also receive money, but less money.

Families of suicide bombers get $5,300 a year - that's four times the average salary in the PA. A wounded terrorist collects $2,655 yearly. Families of terrorists in prison receive $1,325.

Trump said enough - stop this behavior.

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Erdogan to Visit Putin Then Trump
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Erdogan is off on an official trip to Moscow to meet with Russia's President Putin.

The two leaders will discuss plans for dealing with Syria and for attacking terrorists. They will discuss America involvement in world affairs and especially President Trump.

Erdogan has a busy travel schedule. In addition to Putin, he is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington next month.

Yesterday Putin and Trump spoke by phone. They spoke about Syria and North Korea. And today Palestinian President Abbas is meeting with Trump in the White House.

There are a number of important meetings and phone calls happening.

Most of the dialogue - no matter which leaders are in the conversation - focuses on the same topics.

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Israel's Big Riddle
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Today is Israel's 69th birthday.

Part of the fun and celebrations this year was a riddle.

The riddle, which was was online with multiple layers, had 90,000 people attempt to solve it in the first 48 hours. Six people have so far solved the riddle.

The riddle was created by the Israel National Security Agency, known in Hebrew simply as Shin Bet. It is a form of recruitment. Those who solve the riddle will be invited in for an interview.

It was a tool to help recruit candidates who can bolster and build the Shin Bet's high tech security and defense apparatus.

Last year Israel's Mossad provided a riddle and 20,000 people attempted to solve their problem.

Israel is using great games to attract gamers. Computer games are the foundation of the tech security world. Those who excel in gaming are good at real world games of defense.

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Iran Assassinates Media Mogul
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian expatriate was assassinated in Istanbul Turkey recently.

Saeed Karimian was the founder and head of a satellite television network that broadcast in Persian all over the world and was even viewed in Iran through satellite dishes and the internet.

Karimian was murdered, along with a colleague, as they drove down a street in Istanbul. A jeep pulled up and blocked their path. Then two assassins with ski masks got out and murdered Karimian and his associate.

The jeep was later found abandoned and burned.

Earlier this year Karimian was convicted in Iran in absentia and sentenced to 6 years in prison. He was convicted for "acting against national security of the Islamic Republic" and "spreading propaganda against the Islamic Republic."

The prime suspect in the death of Saeed Karimian is, of course, the Iranians. We will follow the investigation.


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Abbas Preps to Meet Trump
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday April 3rd, in the White House.

In preparation for the meeting Abbas met with Egypt's President al Sisi on Saturday and then on Sunday met with Jordanian King Abdullah.

Abbas hope to gain insight into Trump. He is prepping himself so that he can create a strategy to engage the American president and as well as benefit from the meeting and the relationship. Abbas feels that he is at a distinct disadvantage.

President Trump, he realizes, is clearly pro-Israel.

What Abbas does not realize is that being pro-Israel does not de facto make President Donald Trump anti-Palestinian.

Trump wants progress - not talk.

When he shut off the electricity to Hamas in Gaza, Abbas took action that will resonate with Trump. It means that Abbas has no illusions of unifying the PA with Hamas and Gaza.

That might be what Trump needs to push Israel into dialogue.

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Abbas Shuts Electricity to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas aka Abu Mazan has informed Hamas and Israel that the PA will no longer foot the bill for electricity in Gaza.

Israel provides about 30% of the electricity for Gaza - and Abbas pays for it. The payment is actually taken out of the import taxes that Israel collects at the ports of Ashdod and Haifa.

If it was Israel that decided to shut down electricity to Gaza, the world would declare them war criminals and label Israel a huge abuser of human right and would even take Israel to the Hague.

Aside from the Palestinian on Palestinian cruelty - which the world seems not to care about --- the real reasons for initiating this action is that Abbas is creating distance between the PA and Hamas. Sure, there have been stabs at unity between the PA and Hamas, but they have always failed and will continue to fail.

So why now? Why is Abbas cutting off electricity to Gaza now? Because of Donald Trump's upcoming and imminent trip to the Middle East during which the American president will push Bibi Netanyahu to begin talks with Abbas.

By lashing out against Hamas, Abbas is signaling that he might be ready talk to Israel.

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Pope to Visit Egypt on Friday
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Pope Francis will visit Egypt on Friday, he will depart on Saturday.

This is a very important visit. In Egypt Pope Francis will meet with the Coptic Pope. The two clerics have developed a relationship - they are both called Pope.

Pope Francis will also meet with other Christian leaders.

More importantly, the Pope will meet with the Islamic leader the Grand Imam and president of Azhar University, arguably the most prestigious Muslim institution in the world.

Everyone in the Middle East is aware of the symbiotic relationship between Muslims and Christians over the centuries in the region. But of late, there has been a rejection of Christians spearheaded by Muslim extremists like ISIS and al Qaeda.

These extremists have called for no meetings with Christians and even for the killing of the Christians.

Friday will be a very interesting day.

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Israel May Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian press has warned Arab leadership to beware that Israel may attack them.

Specifically, Al Hayyat media has issued a warning, in the name of Jordanian monarch Abdullah, that there is a real risk. King Abdullah warned the Lebanese president and prime minister that there is a strong possibility that Israel will strike Lebanon.

Hezbollah has been on edge - waiting and preparing to make certain that if Israel attacks, they are ready with a response.

There needs to be a serious rethinking of what is happening.

Clearly, strikes are one option. But now, at this stage, other options need to be put on the table.

There is dialogue. There are negotiations. There are thoughtful resolutions. But all that is predicated on thoughtful discussion.

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Pope Should Never Speak off the Cuff
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There is a reason why the Pope does NOT traditionally speak off the cuff. But Pope Francis is different - he often speaks off the cuff and speaks from his heart --- and sometimes he mis-speaks. That can be a problem.

Most Popes in the recent past spoke only by reading prepared, vetted notes. They do not repeat themselves for fear that there may be a difference between the messages that can cause confusion.

An example of what can happen - did happen, when the Pope said that refugees today are living in concentration camps.

His exact words were: "I don't know if he managed to leave that concentration camp, because refugee camps, many of them, are of concentration because of the great number of people left there inside them."

The parallel is absurd. Nazis created work camps and death camps. They created murder camps where technology was created specifically in order to murder Jews.

Illegal immigrants and refugees cannot be portrayed as Jews in murder camps.

The Vatican is simply saying that the Pope spoke off the cuff. That is not an apology. That remark requires a real mea culpa. The Pope's comments must be explained in a proper moral and historical context.

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Iran's New Misssile
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is now outfitted with a cruise missile designed to strike ships. The new missile is called the Nassir.

The Iranian Defense Ministry tested the missile in February and the Nassir is now being sent to both ship and land batteries to augment defense against naval attacks.

What makes the Nassir unique and gives it value is neither range nor speed - it is the pride Iranian generals are feeling in their new weapon. The Nassir has counter jamming capabilities that will render it impervious to the counter defenses of the US fifth fleet.

When a missile is shot at a sophisticated target like an air craft carrier or a destroyer US counter measures are usually deployed, causing the smart bomb to miss its target and go off course or self destruct.

In the case of the Nassir - there is a counter to the counter -- and so the missile continues towards its target.

Until now it was just a question of how to better protect or hack the computer of the enemy. This missile re-codes after being hacked. It adjusts to the hack and overrides the override.

The technology of warfare has changed.

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Iranian Election
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Six candidates will be pitted against each other in the Iranian presidential election scheduled for May 19th.

The biggest news so far is that former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been barred from running for the presidency by the Council of Elders, the committee that vets - and then either approves or disapproves, each potential candidate.

The leading candidate in the race is now the incumbent, 68 year old Hassan Rouhani, the liberal leader who brought Iran out of the international doghouse.

Rouhani's biggest competition is Ibrahim Raisi who is 56 years old and a personal friend of the Grand Ayatollah. Raisi is a member of the Assembly of Experts which is the body that will select the next Grand Ayatollah.

Rounding out the list are are two reform candidates and two more conservative candidates.

But remember - this is Iran. Reform and conservative Iranians are a far cry from reform and conservative candidates of the Western world.

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Trump May Visit Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There is talk that President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia at the end of May.

With so many world leaders coming to visit President Trump in Washington, DC, this stop in Saudi Arabia will signify a very important step in cementing a partnership capable of taking on and confronting Iran, ISIS and al Qaeda.

The visit to Saudi Arabia will be an added stop in Trump's first international trip.

First stop will be Brussels for the NATO Summit on May 25th. May 26th through May 28th the president will be in Sicily for the Group of Seven Conference.

Because this is his first international diplomatic trip, Trump will be especially motivated to solve big international issues - like the diplomatic and security dilemmas he is now confronting.

Syria, Russia, Iran, ISIS and al Qaeda will be the essential questions. Trump will be sizing up his colleagues and deciding who to partner with in order to confront the huge issues that will define his presidency.

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Iran's Parade of the S-300
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leadership just staged a huge military parade.

A highlight of the parade was a display of Iran’s new weapons - including their new S-300 Russian made anti-aircraft missile system.

The S-300 is a very capable weapon. It is a vast improvement over the Russian S-200 system that Iran has, up until now, relied on.

One of the purposes of the parade, in addition to reviving national pride, was to send out a message to Israel. The message was that Islam, and Iran in particular, intends to destroy Israel. There were floats that had pictures of Israeli flags being hit and destroyed by Muslim fists.

Israelis don't seem too concerned about the S-300s. That tells me that they already have a defense against the S-300 in place and ready to go.

That is a good sign.

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Iranian Pres Elections on May 19
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has submitted his name to run as a candidate in the Iranian presidential election scheduled to take place May 19.

There is a five day period during which candidates submit themselves and are vetted.

Submitting his name is a major power play on the part of Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, has already publicly forbidden Ahmadinejad from running for the position.

Ahmadinehad is staging a significant challenge to the supreme leader.

The polls put Ahmadinejad ahead of all the other potential candidates. The question is whether the vetting committee will permit him to run. The committee will need to decide if they should follow the Ayatollah or move to the even more conservative candidate Ahmadinejad.

This kind of challenge has never happened in Iran. It is pitting the extremely conservative against the even more conservative. Until now it was just assumed that the president will always be tapped by the Grand Ayatollah.

Things are changing in Iran. In a short while we will know just how much they are changing.



IDF Destroys Monument to Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF destroyed has destroyed a monument erected in memory of the sixteen year old female terrorist named Bian Asila.

Asila was killed by the border patrol soldier whom she had stabbed but failed to murder at the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron in October 2015.

The teenager was turned into a folk hero locally and throughout Palestinian culture. Asila became a symbol of defiance. Asila represented a girl who could make a difference.

And so some people, we don't know exactly who, erected a monument to her memory.

Inscribed on the monument is a quote from the Koran that reads: "In the name of the merciful Allah, do not think that those who were killed for the sake of Allah die, but live in the midst of Allah."

This quote is one of the most important verses in the Koran. It is the Koranic line that justifies suicide terror attacks. Theses terrorists see themselves as being martyred in the name of Allah. They see their deaths not as suicide - which is forbidden in Islam, but instead as a way to elevate Allah.

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Sisi Declares State of Emergency to Defend Christians
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

After a horrific day of terror in Egypt, a day in which two Christian churches were attacked and over forty-four Christians were murdered by ISIS, Egypt has declared a state of emergency for the next three months.

President al Sisi understands just how important it is to clamp down on ISIS as they continue on their murderous rage against the Christians of Egypt. A significant change has taken place over the past month and Egypt is officially and actively working to stem the tide of violence and the murder of Christians.

In the eyes of ISIS they are perpetrating these attacks against Christians in order to galvanize Muslim support for their cause. Al Sisi realizes that he needs to step up his efforts against al Qaeda, too, in order to save Egypt from ISIS.

This is a very difficult move,

Most Muslims in the Arab world recognize the importance and the history of Christians in the Middle East. But there is also a resentment of Christians that has built up and festered over the years.

It has taken this horrific spate of mass murderous attacks against Christians in Egypt for al Sisi to begin the fight to destroy ISIS.

Hopefully, with the right effort and a lot of determination, al Sisi will, over these next three months, effectively destroy ISIS in Egypt.

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Reaction to US Strike
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

One of Newton's famous laws of gravity goes like this: For every action there is an opposite and reaction.

Apply that law to the sphere of international affairs and the equation changes a bit: For very action there is an opposite, though not always equal, reaction.

I'm referring, of course, to the US strike on Syria. We can certainly expect not one, but several responses.

Russia will pull back on cooperation with the United States - that should be clear.

The air-forces of 13 countries fly over Syrian air space. Russia is a powerful force in that air space as is the United States. It is inevitable that planes brush shoulders or even bump against another. Usually, it happens inadvertently. But then again, mid-air bumps are one certain way of reducing cooperation.

Rebel forces will be bombed by Syrian forces and by Russia forces.
Syria and Russia will use rockets and jets in order to prove to the world that the US strike did not impact the strength and power of their air force and weapons. Syria will aggressively attack their enemies and Russia will help.

They need to stem any momentum that rebel forcess may have picked up from the US strike.

This is not just tit-for tat. It is more like tit-for-tat-for-tat-for tat.

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Risks of Striking Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

We all know why President Trump sent about 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike the airbase in Syria from which Assad sent the chemical weapons that caused such death and carnage.

In US politics both sides of the aisle have come out in favor of the action.

The US action is supposed to be a message to Assad that the US will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons against innocent civilians. This is truly a red line.

The biggest question is whether this strike will, in turn, stimulate a response that will then spiral out of control.

At this point it was a risk worth taking. The United States is isolating Syria and Iran and Hezbollah.

Other Arab states are in favor of boxing Assad in and making certain that Syria not use chemical weapons ever again.

Russian military on the ground must have known that this was going to happen. They made certain to get their advisers out of harm's way if any were present at the Syrian airbase. There is no reason to think that Russia will respond if none of their people and none of their weapons were injured in the strike.

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High Warning on Cyber Security in UK
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

England's nuclear facilities and airports have been put on high cyber security alert.

Along with other public transport networks they have been told to bolster their cyber defenses because of immediate threats.

The Telegraph media website asserted that these facilities need to improve their computer defenses because, if they don't - the entire nation will be endangered.

The obvious danger should be clear to the reader. Weaknesses in their computer systems could compromise the running of the nuclear systems. If computer security is lax in the airports and in the other transport systems, thousands of people are put at risk should there be a hack.

There is no reason for computers in these agencies to be susceptible. Too many lives are at risk. Excuses just don't cut it.

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Theresa May Didn't Cover Head in Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May visited Saudi Arabia on an official visit. The agenda of the talks has not driven the news cycle in Great Britain - a sidebar item has captured the country's attention instead.

The focus of the attention centers on May's decided not to cover her hair while on the visit. Saudi Arabia has very specific diplomatic protocols for women. Modest dress and head covering is par for the course.

May was taking a stand but she was not the first woman to abstain from covering her hair.

In 2015, First Lady Michelle Obama visited Saudi Arabia with her husband the president. Not only was her head uncovered, she also shook hands with Saudi leadership. The shaking of hands is a real no-no in Islamic protocol. Men and women do not touch in public.

In 2012 Hillary Clinton was US secretary of state and her head was not covered. Condi Rice the Bush secretary of state did the same.

In 2007 first lady Barbara Bush was in Saudi Arabia and her head was uncovered during the first part of the trip. Later, she did cover her hair.

Finally, when Angela Merkel of Germany visited Saudi Arabia in 2010, she, too, did not cover her hair.

My suggestion is that British press spend time on the talks between their prime minister and the Saudi leadership. Some very important progress is happening on trade - and most importantly, on the fight against ISIS and other Muslim terrorist groups.

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Father of Kid who called Bomb Threats Says Sorry
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The father of the Israeli-American who called in many of the bomb threats that terrorized American - and parts of world - Jewry, apologized for his son's actions. His son called in bomb threats to US, Canadian, Australian and even New Zealand schools and Jewish community centers.

The father said that his son did not mean to hurt or harm anyone or make anyone afraid. The father said the son had no idea of the impact his calls were having. He, like his wife, the boy's mother, blamed the behavior on their son's brain tumor and his autism.

We know the name of the young man - it is Michael Kedar, but Israeli police has put a gag order on publishing his name.

Israeli police has also forbidden publishing an image of his face, so for now all the coverage only mentions him as M and his face is shaded. The decision by the censor is only good until the details are published by an international agency. The moment after that happens, the Israeli press should be free to use both his name and face.


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Passover Threats Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's office of cyber security has announced that a cyber attack against Israel is expected and will coincide with Passover.

The attack will strike both websites and people affiliated with Israel. The name of the attack is Op-Israel.

There is a Facebook page that is informing people of various plans for the attack. In addition, a more secure Telegram group was created with 12,000 hackers connecting and sharing encrypted messages.

Obviously the hacker group Anonymous is involved in this attack. Also coordinating the hacking operation are groups called AnonGhost and Red Hack.

ISIS has also threatened to launch rockets and attack Israel during the same period.

In light of all the potential threat from ISIS, the Israeli counter-terrorism bureau has issued a travel warning against traveling in Sinai over Passover.

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Imam Apologizes to Rabbi
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This is a first in Islamic Jewish relations. Earlier this morning in Singapore, Imam Nalla Mohamed Abdul Malik entered the Maghain Aboth Synangoue to meet with Rabbi Mordechai Abergel.

The imam presented the rabbi with a formal letter of apology. Even before the meeting was held, the apology was made public and read at various times and places.

The story begins with a series of sermons the imam gave in January and February. In the sermons, the imam referenced a scathing attack against the Jews and Christians which he took from an old Arabic text which originated in his village in India.

The text read: "Allah help us against the Jews and the Christians."

It should be noted that this is not a verse from the Koran.
Rabbi Abergel accepted the letter and the apology.

Imam Abdul Malik proffered the same apology to the Bishop of Singapore on Friday, two days before he met with the rabbi.

The imam also apologized to all Singaporeans for behaving in a way that is unacceptable and that generates hatred and anger.

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Chinese Pres to Visit Mar-a-Lago
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit President Trump in Mar-a-Lago on April 6th and 7th.

This will be their first meeting between these presidents. It is important to note that while the visit will take place in the United States, not in China, it will be taking place in the president's Florida residence, not at the White House.

During the campaign Trump often made reference to the unfair money manipulation that China engaged in against the US. But campaign rhetoric and promises quickly fade away after the candidate assumes the presidency and faces the priorities of leadership.

No doubt they will discuss North Korea. They will only mention, if not skirt around, trade issues. The need to work with China to stop North Korea is essential for the US. The potential danger that North Korea poses is top priority.

China is right there, China is North Korea's neighbor and North Korea cares what China thinks. They fear China.

The US and China need to be on the same page now, as North Korea tries to flex its muscles.

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Arab Summit Recognizes Israel -- Sort Of
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:
The Arab Summit finished up this week. It was agreed that the only solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict is a two-state solution.

King Abdullah of Jordan said in his Summit address that a Palestinian state cannot be created without a two-state solution.

This is groundbreaking.

The idea that the vast majority of Arab leadership publically recognized two states is noteworthy.

To put it bluntly: Two states means -- Israel and the Palestinian state. This was official recognition of Israel by Arab leadership.

This is nothing short of historical.

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Carlos the Jackel Convicted Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Before ISIS and al Qaeda - there was Carlos aka The Jackal.

Carlos was the greatest terrorist of the 70's and 80's. He was a terrorist for hire. His "employers" were mostly Palestinians, Soviets and other communist leaders and their states.

Yesterday Carlos was convicted by a French court and sentenced to life in prison for blowing up a shopping mall in Paris in 1974.

This was Carlos' third life sentence for murder and terror.

Carlos called the entire trial absurd and that is exactly what he shouted after the sentencing. He made fun of the trial convened for a 42 year old crime.

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ISIS Member Arrested in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli Arab was indicted yesterday for sending money to an ISIS fighter in Iraq

Fadel Tzaber Knaneh is a 25 year old man whose brother Mohammed joined ISIS in Syria. Fadel's brother Mohammed was killed. Fadel found out about his brother's death via a message which came from a mutual friend named Muhammed Keilani - who is also fighting for ISIS either in Syria or in Iraq.

In early March of 2017, Keilani told Fadel Knaneh that he was injured and needed money. Knaneh went to a money changer in Jenin who transferred 5000 NIS, which equals $1300, to Keilani in Iraq. And for that he was arrested.

This is just one of many examples of Israelis who have been arrested for helping ISIS. It is not a trend, but it is troubling.

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Iran Places Sanctions pro Israel Companies
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is sanctioning companies that are doing business with Israel.

The companies include Bent Tal, United Technologies Products, ITT Corporation, Raytheon, Re/Max Real Estate, Magnum Research Inc, Oshkosh Corporation, Kahr Arms and Elbit System.

Iran is responding to the US sanctions imposed against them after a series of missile tests. Iranian media covered the decision by the foreign ministry to ban these companies from doing business in Iran.

Iran has also threatened to declare the CIA and the US army as terrorist organizations.

The Iranians are barring these companies from doing business in Iran. In truth, it will have very little impact on the targeted companies or on their industries - Iran is making a statement, they are responding. Many of these companies are Israel oreinted with major Israeli sections.

The Iranians are responding in order to make themselves feel relevant. The reality, however, is that in this case, the Iranians are overreaching.

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Egypt Starts Defending Christians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has finally started protecting their Christians.

When an anti-Christian incident took place in the ancient city of Luxor, police stepped in to control the mob. Eight of the protesters were arrested and seven protesters were injured. Four police were also injured.

Here's what happened: Muslims were marching on a Christian home and the police found out about it and stepped in to protect the family inside their home. The motivation for the protest was a rumor that a Christian teenager converted to Islam. It was rumored that his parents were holding him and punishing him for the conversion and trying to influence him to change back.

The family denies all of this.

Had police not stepped in, the crowd would have lynched the family.

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Why An Israeli Called in the Threats
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 24, 2017

I've been thinking.

Yes, it's true. The culprit behind the rash of over 120 phone threats against Jewish community centers and other Jewish institutions was a Jewish boy living in Israel, a boy with dual Israeli/US citizenship.

The question on everyone's lips is "Why?"

The answer is clear. But first - a caveat. Just like the former journalist aka the first culprit caught for perpetrating crimes against Jewish institutions - this has nothing at all to do with President Donald Trump.

It was an attempt to become powerful. That quest, coupled with a modicum of computer skills is a very dangerous combination.

In order to feel powerful, this 18 year old attacked his community, his own people and threatened his family in Israel and in the United States. He exhibited a hatred of himself and of his community.

Doing his dastardly deeds under the veil of anonymity yielded him even more power. Doing it to his loved ones and doing it right under their noses while they searched for the perpetrator of these hate crimes empowered him. And he just went on and on and on strutting his stuff and exercising his new found power.

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JCC Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 24, 2017

I've been thinking.

Yes, it's true. The culprit behind the rash of over 120 phone threats against Jewish community centers and other Jewish institutions was a Jewish boy living in Israel, a boy with dual Israeli/US citizenship.

The question on everyone's lips is "Why?"

The answer is clear. But first - a caveat. Just like the former journalist aka the first culprit caught for perpetrating crimes against Jewish institutions - this has nothing at all to do with President Donald Trump.

It was an attempt to become powerful. That quest, coupled with a modicum of computer skills is a very dangerous combination.

In order to feel powerful, this 18 year old attacked his community, his own people and threatened his family in Israel and in the United States. He exhibited a hatred of himself and of his community.

Doing his dastardly deeds under the veil of anonymity yielded him even more power. Doing it to his loved ones and doing it right under their noses while they searched for the perpetrator of these hate crimes empowered him. And he just went on and on and on strutting his stuff and exercising his new found power.



UKraine Bans RUssian Eurovision Singer
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Ukraine has announced that the Russian contestant in the Eurovision music festival will not be permitted entry into Ukraine. Eurovision is an annual music festival that functions as a creative cultural competition between nations.

According to Eurovision rules, the winning country hosts the next year's competition. Last year Ukraine won. This year the music contest will take place in Kiev on May 11-13.

Ukrainian officials say that Yulia Samoylova, a 27 year old Russian woman who is confined to a wheelchair may not enter their country.

Eurovision is traditionally non-political. This year is different. Why? Because in 2014, after the Russian land grab, Yulia toured Crimea. Ukrainian law does not permit any entry into Crimea except through a Ukrainian border crossing. Anyone who violates that law may be refused entry into Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials take this very seriously.

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Ted Allen Was Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Anne Frank Center for Mutual Respect is calling on actor Tim Allen to apologize for his comments on the Jimmy Kimmel Show.

Allen likened the atmosphere in Hollywood to Germany in the 1930's. He paralleled the being a conservative in Hollywood to Jews under Hitler. Allen his audience to imagine that life in LA is as bad as was life in Berlin. He said that "you've got to be real careful around here or you'll get beat up." He added, "If you don't believe what everybody believes, this is like thirties Germany."

Steven Goldstein, the director of the Anne Frank house, said "apologize to the Jewish people." He told Allen that "no one in Hollywood today is subjecting you or anyone else to what the Nazis imposed on Jews in the 1930s."

Goldstein is correct and Allen should apologize. There is no parallel. Allen could have said that it is uncomfortable being a conservative in Hollywood - he did not have to be so melodramatic and theatrical and invoke the Holocaust to make his point.

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Egypt an Palestinians Reconcile
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians and Egyptians are in talks in an effort to reconcile their tensions.

Palestinian leaders are now meeting in Egypt with their Egyptian counterparts. This is a good sign, for some time now there was almost no interaction between these two parties.

There are several reasons for this division.

The first reason is that Egypt had begun reaching out to the leaders of Gaza and tried to work with them in order to protect their border and stop the back and forth movement of weapons and drugs. Tensions between Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank are nearly beyond repair.

The second reason is that Egypt withdrew their anti-Israeli settlement resolution at the United Nations Security Council due to pressure from the US and Israel. Never mind that the resolution passed the next day after being proposed by another country.

Tensions between Egypt and the Palestinian Authority can be resolved. Egypt is a regional power and it is in the best interests of Palestinians to be able to count on al Sisi and his government.

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Israel 8th Most Powerful
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

US News and World Report has published its yearly list of the most powerful nations of the world.

Israel was named number 8 in the most powerful category. Number one was the United States, followed by Russia, China, UK, Germany, France, Japan and then Israel.

Israel was listed as #19 in the movers and shakers category and #25 in entrepreneurship.

Israel's standing is impressive by any standard. Israel, a country with about 8 million people, is competitive in power with countries like China with a billion and half people and the United States with 325 million.

Israel truly is extremely powerful. And so are Saudi Arabia, which was rated as #9, the United Arab Emirates which came in at #10 and South Korea and Canada, # 11 and #12, respectively.

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IDF Drills Near Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has called up army reservists for drills in southern Israel.

The drills, which will prepare the IDF for a variety of scenarios that may arise, were stimulated by increased tensions along the border with Gaza.

Over the past few weeks five rockets have been launched into Israel and three other border security incidents have occurred.

This does not mean that a battle is imminent, it means that Israel wants to be as well prepared as possible for potential threats and for an intensification of attacks coming from Gaza.

Bringing the IDF reservists to the Gaza border sends a signal to the leadership in Gaza. It says that Israel is preparing and that an increased number of launched missiles into Israel could result in a series of Israeli operations and strikes against Gaza.

That was not a part of the Gazans plan.

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Strange Sports in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

People have written about the Israeli national baseball team and how the team made it to the world baseball championships beating Cuba, Netherlands South Korea and Taiwan.

In the end they lost to Japan. But their performance was inspirational and certainly impressive. Commentators around the world wrote about how the well the team did, only Israel seemed not to be paying attention. Israel just wasn't paying attention.

Israelis themselves were blase. That's because Israelis don't understand baseball.

They don't understand yo-yo either. Tal Mordoch, a 16 year old 10th grade high schooler from Ramat Hasharon, won second place in the European Yo Yo Championships which took place in Krakow, Poland.

He is now training for the international championships taking place in August in Tokyo. At last year's competition in Prague, Mordoch placed 30th.

Congratulations. Sports is big news.

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Frankurt Wants to Stop BDS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The mayor of Frankfurt is working hard to squash a Boycott Divestment and Sanctions, known as BDS, group that is planning a conference and protest in his city.

The mayor, Uwe Becker, asserts that BDS is anti-Semitic, even Nazi-styled, and therefore BDS protests would be illegal. He says that the proof of his assertion is BDS slogans, ads and posters.

Their slogans are based on the principles of: "Don't Buy From Israel" and "Don't Buy From Jews."

The event is scheduled for June 9-10 and the speaker list is an all-star team of anti-Semites. An earlier protest is scheduled to take place in Bonn at the end March.

There, too, efforts are underway to squash the protest.

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US Extraditing Palestinian Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The US Department of Justice has asked for Ahlam al Tamimi to be extradited from Jordan to the United States to stand trial for bombing the Sbarro Pizzeria in Jerusalem on August 9, 2001. Two of the fifteen people murdered in the attack were US citizens.

122 people were wounded in this terror attack.

Al Tamimi was convicted after pleading guilty. She scouted the pizzeria and she drove the suicide bomber there on the day of the attack.

Al Tamimi was released from prison in an exchange for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Since her release she has been the host of a very popular TV show in Jordan that regularly interviews terrorists. On her shows she often speaks about terrorism and has even admitted to other terrorist activities.

This is the first time the United States has is engaged in prosecuting a terrorist for attacking Americans abroad.

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Iran Expands Oil Exports
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There is big news in the world of oil.

Iran is now the second largest supplier of oil to India. They overtook Iraq over the past few months.

India is the second largest importer of oil in the world. And now Iran is in the very same position they were in before sanctions began.

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela are the primary exporters of oil to India and not surprisingly the order has been disrupted. The order was not just disrupted by Iran - Nigeria also overtook Venezuela.

What this all means is that that Iran is becoming more and more powerful. With this new market growth comes money and with money comes power .... power and, especially influence.

Welcome to the natural outgrowth of Iran's new status.

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Europe Upset by PA Hate Education
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Europe has a long standing history of siding with the Palestinians against Israel.
It's not that Europeans are anti-Israel, it is just that they believe that there is an injustice at the heart of the conflict.

European leaders as well as the European masses actually embrace Israel and Israelis. In fact, most are repulsed by the anti-Semitism and hateful rhetoric of the Palestinians. That is certainly the case for the leaders of Europe.

It sounds counter intuitive. The European psyche rejects any kind of anti-Jewish behavior and thought - but they side with the Palestinians.

A British weekend paper, the Mail on Sunday, ran an investigative story about Palestinian schools which get European funds and still teach hatred and glorify terror.

The paper brought video and photos and interviews that show Palestinian children playing games with the objective of murdering Israeli soldiers. They highlight the Facebook page of a school which posted videos and pictures of these games.

When interviewed, one teacher acknowledged that he would urge students to become suicide bombers if and when students approached him for advice.

The report in the Mail also pointed out that schools are named after terrorists. Sporting events are named after terrorists. Faculty and administration admit to taking European money and not following the conditions of the international aid.

This is deeply troubling for Europeans - as it should be -- it means that their money is going towards teaching hatred.

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Abbas & Trump
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are embarking on a new strategy -they are on the offensive.

The Palestinian Authority is now aggressively pursuing the White House and Jewish communities in the US.

On Friday President Donald Trump spoke to Abbas for the first time since assuming office. Trump spoke about his desire to get a resolution between Israel and the Palestinians. Abbas spoke about two states.

Trump also extended an invitation to Abbas to come to the White House.
Also it appears that Trump might be organizing a Peace Conference.

This week Trump's special negotiator, Jason Greenblatt, will arrive in Israel and meet with Israelis and Palestinians.

In addition, Abbas has opened a new aggressive PR front. He is approaching Jewish communities in the US. He is reaching out to Jewish communities about speaking at temples and synagogues.

This will be very important - it may result in a shift in momentum in US Jewish communities viv a vis the Palestinians.

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Putin Holds Summit with Erdogan Too
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Erdogan is in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Putin.

The Turkish president arrived in Russia on the same day that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu came and met with Putin.

Putin is creating a series of summits. The purpose of the summits is to cement his role in the region.

Both Israel and Turkey are regional players. Russia wants to make certain that everyone is on the same page in dealing with ISIS. He also wants to make certain that there is agreement on Assad of Syria.

Israel said they don't care about Syrian leadership - all they want is stability and Iran as far away as possible. Turkey wants their border to be quiet and the ability to cross when needed in order to pursue and to punish terrorists who seek refuge by crossing the border.

Iran is the elephant in the room. No one wants them in Syria. But they have been and still support Hezbollah and have significant troops and advisers in Syria all to defend Assad and keep him in position.

Putin has power and he knows how to wield it.

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3 Teens Apologize for Swastika
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday three teens in Pennsylvania sprayed a swastika on the parking lot of the parking lot of the Exeter Community Library.

The teens stuck a note and $50 in the book return slot. The apology was found by library workers on Monday. The note said the youths were "three stupid teenagers apologizing for our heinous acts." The note explained that the teens didn't intend to offend or hurt anyone.

The teenagers explained that they "all have religious roots and did not intentionally mean this as any form of hate speech or dislikeness towards any culture."

This act of anti-Semitism is not typical. There is sincere contrition on the part of the teenagers. They had no idea of the magnitude of the their deed and they have since corrected their mistake.

Most of these acts are perpetrated by real hateful people.

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Ahmadinejad Opens Twitter Account
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was leading the country when it banned Twitter in 2009, finally joined the social media platform.

He was President from 2009 - 2013. In 2011 there was a groundswell against him called the Green revolution. The members used twitter to communicate and organize.

Ahmadinejad's first tweet was "In the name of God, Peace be upon all the freedom loving people of the world #Imontwitter".
He then posted a video message, in which he said: "In the name of God, the most merciful and most compassionate. Follow me at Ahmadinejad1956. That's me. Peace and love, and best wishes." The year Ahmadinejad used in his username is his year of birth.

His Twitter bio reads: "Husband, Dad, Grandfather, University Professor, President, Mayor, Proud Iranian."

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US Backpedaling on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Trump administration is backpedaling on its original positions on Israel. The administration now seems to be adopting a more traditional US point of view on settlements and on the West Bank.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that he has received direct messages from the United States that should Israel annex any part of the West Bank it would trigger an "immediate crisis" between the two nations.

To quote Lieberman: "We received a direct message—not an indirect message and not a hint—from the United States. Imposing Israeli sovereignty on the West Bank would mean an immediate crisis with the new administration."

Israel's defense minister also said that he received dozens of messages from leaders around the world about the traditional US stance which became an international issue after annexation was again raised by a junior member of the ruling Likud party named Miki Zohar.

Lieberman and Netanyahu have tried to calm the bluster and defuse the storm that has erupted. But world leaders are concerned about annexation - and that includes the Trump White House.

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Russia Arrest ISIS Cell
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Associated Press reports that Russian authorities have arrested three terrorists and killed one other. The terrorists were all members of an ISIS cell.

According to the report these four terrorists were part of a sleeper cell in the southern region of Dagestan, in the city of Derbent, which is on the Caspian Sea very close to the Azerbaijan border.

The Russian anti-terrorism unit approached a home where one of the terrorists was hiding out. A shoot out ensued and the terrorist was killed. The other three were arrested afterwards in other locations.

ISIS is expanding their reach and Russia is one of their primary targets - the Russian presence in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, does not please ISIS at all.

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Bahrain Arrests 25 Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain arrested 25 people suspected of terror. The police say that the 25 were part of a 54 person group. The police seized weapons, explosives, cars, a boat and a drone.

The group is charged with going to Iran and Iraq and receiving training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Iran has been trying to destabilize Bahrain since 2011.

Bahrain is controlled by Sunnis who compose about 15% of the country - but the majority of Bahrainis, about 85% of the country, are Shiites.

There continues to be a low level, constant movement by Shiites to overthrow Sunni leadership in Bahrain and this group is another example of that endeavor.

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Hamas Israel Tensions Rising
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is increasing their attacks against Israel.

Tensions along the Gaza- Israeli border are heating up and could continue to escalate.

Numerous rockets have been launched from Gaza into Israel. Israeli military units are being targeted as they patrol the Israeli side of the border. Israel is striking back using drones and helicopters.

Hamas has said they will strike back at Israel because Israel has attacked Hamas' nerve centers.

This is not merely a repeating cycle of violence. It is an escalation in the number and intensity of attacks by Hamas against Israel.


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US Takes A Stand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The new administration is telling the United Nations to change its behavior or they, the United States, will withdraw their support and membership.

United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Erin Barclay told the United Nations Human Rights Council to balance their agenda and stop their obsession with Israel.

Barclay made this statement as she addressed the committee on Wednesday.

She said: "The United States also remains deeply troubled by the Council's consistent, unfair and unbalanced focus on one democratic country: Israel."

The Trump White House is saying, plain and clear, that the United States will not be party to Israel bashing.

Let's see how the Human Rights Council, one off the most anti-Israel forums in the world, responds.


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A King Travels in Style
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdul Aziz is making a trip to Indonesia. Kings don’t travel the same way you and I do.

Salman bin Abdul Aziz will be travelling with an entourage of between 900 and 1500 people - including 100 security personnel. He will be bringing over 500 tons of luggage - including two Mercedes S600 limousines and two freestanding elevators. Yes, two freestanding elevators

10 ministers and 25 princesses are joining the king on this 9 day trip. In addition to Indonesia, they will visit China, Japan, Maldives and Jordan.

In 2015, when the King of Saudi Arabia visited Washington, DC, the royal entourage took over the entire Four Seasons Hotel in Georgetown - all 222 rooms.

When a king travels, he comes complete with an entire crew and all the trappings of the monarchy. The king of Saudi Arabia will sacrifice none of the comforts of home even when hitting the road.

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Iran Launches Missiles from Sub
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 28, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been testing ballistic missiles. They shot two cruise style missiles, called Nasir missile, from a submarine. The missiles hit their targets.

The United States and other Western nations say this behavior violates UN Security Council Resolution 2331 which was passed in the aftermath of the famous nuke deal. The resolution, passed in July of 2015, says that Iran is "not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology."

Iran says that they are not in violation of any resolution.

Iran claims that they do not have a nuclear program so they cannot be in violation of anything nuclear-related. They say the resolution only deals with issues in connection to nuclear development.

Of course the Iranians want to expand their nuclear technology. They say that they are engaging in energy and research - not in weapon development.

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Clans Conflict in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas finished a 3 day trip to Lebanon.

As he left Ein el Hilwa, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, which is located near the Southern city of Sidon, erupted in violent fights. Internal clashes between supporters of Abbas and some of the extremist groups in the camp, including al Qaeda, went after each other.

There were numerous injuries. Ein el Hiwa is a lawless center and a hotbed of extremism.

These conflicts are typical in the region. People in the Middle East are tied to clan and area affiliations. They are fiercely loyal to their families. When the family leader establishes an affiliation with a cause - political or otherwise, the entire clan falls into line. That includes defending and fighting for their cause.

We see this happen in camps, in towns and in villages throughout the region. There is far more loyalty to clan than to a national leader.

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3 Die in Gaza Tunnel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Authorities in Gaza announced that three of their workers were killed in a tunnel that the Egyptians blew up the day before.

The three were workers who went into the tunnel to repair the destruction. They were killed from inhaling poisonous gas that was in the tunnel as the result of the blast.

The information was made public by the Hamas interior ministry.

The important element in this story is that Egypt is destroying Hamas' tunnels to make certain that they are not used for terror or to transport illegal weapons.

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Iran Fears Israeli Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani addressed, a conference in Teheran this week. The conference, which was about the Palestinians, was dedicated to finding solutions for the problems besetting Palestinians.

Rouhani said, "The occupying regime, in an attempt to normalize its situation, has for the first time referred to certain Arab countries as its allies against the resistance front, instead of describing them as its enemies."

Iran is feeling the pressure.

Israel is making headway. Serious relationship building between Israel and her Arab neighbors are developing - mostly as an outgrowth of the rise of ISIS and increased tensions with Iran.

Iran is striking back and telling the Arab world to stop. But will they listen?

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IDF Says Hezbollah Has Low Morale
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Gadi Eisenkot, the chief of IDF staff and the head of the entire Israeli defense system said that Hezbollah is suffering from a crisis in morale.

Eisenkot made his point while addressing the Knesset committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense. He said that Hezbollah leaders' statements about shooting rockets and hitting the ammonia plant in Haifa as well as the nuclear power plant in Dimona are an exaggeration. He said that hits of that type are way beyond the capabilities of Hezbollah.

The Israeli top general said that the civil war in Syria has enabled Hezbollah. It has given them important operational experience as fighters and as tactical warriors battling ISIS and others in Syria.

Eisenkot said that Hamas in Gaza has been Israel's largest border threat. He said that the IDF has spent $2.4 billion in creating a response against tunnels and other border threats along the Israeli Gaza border. He said that the new leader of Hamas has changed the public attitude - but not tactical decisions on whether or not to attack Israel.

All in all, Eisenkot delivered a positive message. He is optimistic about the state of Israel's safety and optimistic that Israel's enemies are still a safe distance away.

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Ayatollah Tells Palestinians to Fight Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei, announced on his website that the Palestinians should fight to create their state and destroy Israel. He said that by fighting, they will achieve their ends.

But he never called Israel by her name. Instead, the Supreme Leader called Israel a "cancerous tumor."

He said that: "...by Allah's permission, we will see that this intifada will begin a very important chapter in the history of fighting and that it will inflict another defeat on that usurping regime."

About the Palestinians, Khamenei said: "The Palestinian intifada continues to gallop forward in a thunderous manner so that it can achieve its other goals until the complete liberation of Palestine."

Iranians and Palestinians are in very different spheres they disagree on nearly everything. But Iran wants to be the leader of the Muslim world. And that's why Iran must now become the most public defenders, the cheerleaders, of the Palestinians to the outside world.

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London Arrests 5 kids Running Away to ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 21, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

As we have seen, over the past few years youth from all over Europe have run away to join ISIS. Conservative numbers put the figures at 4,000 but the real number may be as many as 3 times that.

Recently, London police arrested 5 teenagers between 15 and 19 years old. The teens have been charged with terrorism and with traveling to join a terrorist organization. The plan was to travel to Syria and join ISIS.

Police raided the houses of the teens and seize their computers, phones and other materials as evidence.

The British press is exploding with this story. People are in shock just as they were in 2015 when three girls disappeared to join ISIS.

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ISIS Hit By Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS reports that an Israeli drone struck and killed five ISIS members in Sinai. They were traveling in a car in the very northernmost section of Sinai, almost in Gaza, just outside of the city of Rafah.

This was probably a response to ISIS' launching rockets from Sinai into the southern port city of Eilat just over a week before the drone attack.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the original rockets attack into Israel. They made an official statement and posted and proudly boasting that it was an operation ISIS of the Sinai Peninsula. They said: "A number of rockets were launched at Jewish centers in Eilat, known as Umm Rashrash. The Jews and Crusaders should know that the war of the apostles will not save them in any way."

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Take Bombs Threats Seriously
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Terror threats against the organized Jewish community have risen. These threats do not appear to have activated any serious response on either the part of the media or of the Jewish community.

The events were minimally covered in the press - especially the local press in the cities where the terror threats took place.

National and international press covered the threats, but did not extend their analysis to focusing on the threats, how to approach these threats or how to educate the Jewish and non-Jewish community.

Over three separate days in January - on the 9th, 18th and 31st there were 60 bomb threats called in to 46 JCC's in 26 states (including one in Canada). Some JCC's received several threats. The threats said that C-4 has been placed in your building and "a larger number of Jews are going to be slaughtered."

A national response is essential.

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Hamas Election
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas just held an election. As with everything Hamas related, it was fraught with controversy. Putting that aside – we can now say that Hamas has a new head and his name is Yahya Sinwar.

This is bad news all around - for Israel, for the West, for Gaza and for Hamas.

Sinwar is even more extreme than previous leadership. First and most importantly, he was in an Israeli prison and released only because of the prison swap for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Yahya Sinwar is a free man because of an exchange and yet, he has put unrealistic and extreme preconditions on any swap with Israel. He is demanding that all 50 prisoners who were released for Shalit in 2014 and then re-arrested after the kidnapping and murder of the 3 Israeli teenagers, be released.

And then he is demanding the release of dozens of other prisoners before he will even begin to talk about returning the bodies of Israelis killed in the most recent Gaza operations and the freeing of two Israelis who accidentally wandered into Gaza.

These are non-starters.

Even more dramatic and more dangerous is that Yahya Sinwar wants to rekindle relations with Iran. Previous Hamas leadership was interested in mending fences with Egypt. But moving towards Iran means Hamas will receive money and weapons that could have a huge impact on the safety of Israelis.

Running to Iran is never a good sign when it comes to power and politics in the Middle East.


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Hate Speech on YouTube
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 16, 2017
I've been thinking.

Many people have never heard of PewDeiPei. His real name is Felix Kjellberg. And he is the most watched person on YouTube - the most watched person ever!

PewDeiPei has 53 million subscribers and his videos have been watched over a billion times.

He is what you would call - hot. And yet - Disney just dropped him.

PewDeiPei was dropped because he had eight videos that were overtly anti-Semitic. One video included two Indians unfurling a banner that read "Kill the Jews." Another video had him saying "Hitler was right."

Kjellberg said that it was all done in humor, but he understands that it could be misunderstood.

That falls far shy of an apology.

Disney did the right thing. There can be no tolerance for hatred, not even in humor.

This artist was self destructive. Disney was worth millions to him per year. But don't feel sorry for him - he ruined his own career.

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Trump Bibi Meet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Today's White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be, at the same time, both very exciting and very boring.

Exciting because it has been a very long time since an Israeli prime minister - especially Netanyahu, has been a welcome and well received guest at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

Boring because there will be no new news to come out of the meeting -no news, no conflict, no new ground. In the end, that 'no news' will turn into "good news" for everyone.

The first meeting between a new US president and a sitting Israeli prime minister is normally a formality. The two leaders review basics and reaffirm the promise made by Bush and Sharon to protect Israel. They get to know one another and make certain that they can pick up a phone and clear things up if and when it becomes necessary.

In this case, Trump and Netanyahu are already friends. They will skip the formalities and get down to brass tacks business, or, as some will call it "tachlis." They will probably speak about Iran, ISIS, Syria, Turkey and the cabal of negativism that swarms around each of them.

They will only briefly discuss Palestinian issues - and only to reaffirm the Two-State Solution and agree that there is at present no Palestinian leader strong enough to broker the compromises necessary for negotiations and meaningful dialogue. They will mention settlements and President Trump will reiterate that it is not helpful to make public pronouncements about such things.

And finally, they will agree that it is a good idea to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, but more time is needed before the move can and should be made.

Not bad for Israel. And not bad for the United States.

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Tillerson to Meet w Russsian FM
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 14, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like new US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is going to meet with his Russian counterpart Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The potential meeting was reported by the Interfax news service which quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.

The report suggests that the two chief diplomats will meet in Germany.

The coverage clearly articulated that the topic of their conversation will be Syria.

This will be an important test for Tillerson in his role as Secretary of State.

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Turkey in Syria Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey has begun their part in a ground operation to destroy ISIS. Over the weekend Turkish forces crossed over into Syria on their way to liberate the Syrian city of al Bab from ISIS.

The operation was confirmed by Turkish President Erdogan before he departed on a regional trip visiting Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar.

Al Bab is about 13 miles over the Turkish border, so it was not too difficult logistically for Turkish forces to get to. But their next stop is Raqa which is 110 miles from al Bab.

Raqa is the capital of ISIS and is its nerve center.

Erdogan said that the objective is to liberate 5000 sq km (about 3000 sq miles) from ISIS. He actually used the word "cleanse" not liberate. He also made it clear that Turkey will not stay in Syria.

This is a major change in the Turkish game plan. Erdogan and Trump spoke earlier in the week and this must have been part of the plan they discussed. Turkey is a very important asset in the battle to defeat ISIS.

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Trump Walks Back US Embassy Move
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This Friday Israel Today (Yisrael HaYom), the largest circulated news paper in Israel, published an interview with President Donald Trump. The interview touched on two important topics, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and settlements.

About settlements, Trump said that building new settlements is not helpful.

And about the embassy move, President Trump said he is rethinking the move and looking at all the different angles. These are his words:

"I am thinking about the embassy, I am studying the embassy [issue], and we will see what happens. The embassy is not an easy decision. It has obviously been out there for many, many years, and nobody has wanted to make that decision. I'm thinking about it very seriously, and we will see what happens."

Right now - that's all we can do. Wait and see.

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US & Turkey to Fight ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

US President Trump spoke with Turkish President Erdogan. The two leaders agreed to form a united front against ISIS.

Trump and Erdogan spoke about specifics and decided to work together to liberate two cities in Syria that are under the control of ISIS - Raqa and al Bab.

I am absolutely certain that they either already have a plan or are preparing a plan and that they will act together to liberate these cities.

Raqa is the capital of ISIS in Syria. If the US and Turkey successfully oust ISIS from Raqa, it may very well be a near death blow to the governing process of ISIS. It will also be major blow to ISIS recruitment and to the reputation of ISIS. If it happens it means that ISIS will not have a capital and will lose the head and heart of their state.

This could be a huge success. It certainly highlights the difference between the Obama administration and the Trump administration.

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Islam in Italy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Islam is not recognized in Italy. That means, unlike Christianity and Judaism whose congregations and clergy are paid by the state, Islamic congregations and clergy are not paid by the state.

Now there is a move to register all Italian Imams. And Italy's Imams are now required to sermonize in Italian and to sign a good citizenship statement.

There are 1.4 million Muslims in Italy - they are the second largest religious community in the country. Italians are afraid of the trend overtaking Europe where radical Islam is hijacking many countries.

The solution Italian leadership has devised is called the National Pact for an Italian Islam. The idea is to integrate Islam into the modern state of Italy.

It's an ambitious undertaking- but will it be successful?

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Le Pen Wants to Ban Kippot
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front and contender for President of France, said some very controversial things in an interview on Israel Channel 2.

Jewish media around the world have been talking about the interview which was sent from the Jewish Chronicle in England to the JTA in the US.

Le Pen said that Jews of France should stop wearing their kippot. He said they should wear hats. This is part of the battle against Islam. She advocates the removal of all religious symbols.

She said "Honestly, the dangerous situation in which Jews in France live is such that those who walk with a kippah are in any case a minority because they are afraid."

"But I mainly think the struggle against radical Islam should be a joint struggle and everyone should say, 'There, we are sacrificing something.'"

Le Pen also said: "Maybe they will do with just wearing a hat, but it would be a step in the effort to stamp out radical Islam in France."

Marine Le Pen is wrong.

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No Lone Wolves Says the NYT
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 7, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A recent front page Sunday NYTimes article proclaimed that there is no such thing as a lone wolf.

Finally!!! Some of us have been saying this for years. We were told we do not understand it was as if we were living in different worlds.

Of course there are still anarchists and private political lone wolves, but not when it comes to Muslim terrorists.

Almost every single Muslim terrorist acts together with ISIS and al Qaeda. The individual terrorist may not be a member of a terror group, but they have all been activated by the terrorist media. Terrorists in the United States and in Europe engage in ISIS social media and watch their videos.

These are motivational videos.

ISIS and al Qaeda also have operational videos and how-to videos. They have videos explaining Islam and videos explaining how to gather supporters as well as how to encrypt your emails and messages to remain safe and off the radar of the police.

These media even allow for communication back to the nerve center of ISIS and al Qaeda to get personal tutoring when needed.

Finally - the NYTimes seems to understand what I've been saying all along.

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Turkey Arrests 400 ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey arrested 400 suspected terrorists yesterday. Turkish military and police conducted raids throughout Turkey in six provinces all around the country.

Add these 400 to 780 suspected terrorists the Turks have already arrested. Of those already arrested, 350 suspected terrorists are foreigners.

Turkey is the latest country to make the decision to intensify their actions against ISIS.

Countries in the region have stepped up their game. This change is important. These actions show a change in local momentum and in attitude. The regional war against ISIS is intensifying.

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Jordan Bombs ISIS in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has been hit hard by ISIS terror attacks - and now they are ratcheting up their fight against ISIS.

Jordan attacked ISIS basis in Southern Syria. They attacked an ammunition depot. They also attacked a factory that builds car bombs and a building that housed ISIS fighters. The Jordanian army released a statement declaring the success of their mission.

"The operation resulted in killing and wounding a number of members of the terrorist gang in addition to destroying a number of vehicles," said the army statement published by the Petra news agency.

This move is critical. It moves Jordan into the league of countries actively active striking ISIS outside their own country. Most countries have limited their defense against ISIS to within their borders. The fight needs to be broadened. Kudos to Jordan.

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Iran Says US Comments are Useless
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is responding to US President Trump's announcement that Iran has been put on notice. The announcement was actually made by National Security Adviser Michael Flynn after Iran shot two ballistic missiles as a weapons test.

The spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, Bahram Ghasemi, called the United States' stance "repetitive, baseless and provocative."

He continued by suggesting that "instead of thanking Iran for its continued fight against terrorism, the American government is practically helping the terrorists by claims about Iran that are baseless, repetitive and provocative."

Iran continued and said that these US threats against them are useless.

The question is - what will and can the US do if Iran continues along these lines? We need to see what President Trump has up his sleeve.

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Sheik Says US Policy NOT Anti Muslim
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates said that the executive order limiting entrance to the US from seven Arab countries that are centers of terror - Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen - is not anti-Muslim.

Sheik Abdullah bun Zayed al Nayen issued the statement during a press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov was visiting Abu Dhabi to talk about issues related to ISIS, Iran, Syria and other Middle East tensions as well as the new US president.

The Sheik told the press conference that the 90 day policy did not include most Muslims and was not directed at Muslims, but rather, at countries that are filled with terrorism.

The UAE foreign minister said that the United States has the right and the responsibility to behave in this way.

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Israel-Turkey Talking
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 1, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Turkey are mending fences. For the first time in six long years high level talks between Turkey and Israel are taking place.

On Tuesday, Yuval Rotem, Israel's new Director General of the Foreign Ministry, flew to Ankara, the Turkish capital, where he will be in meetings until Thursday. Rotem's main meetings will be with his Turkish counterpart Umit Yalcin.

The objective of these meetings is twofold - to normalize relations through trust and to rebuild security and counter terror communications.

These six years have been a long time during which tensions were high and important opportunities were lost.

Working together is beneficial for both Israel and Turkey and for the region. Turkish-Israeli cooperation was sorely missed. It will take time to get it back up to the level where it once was, but these talks are a good indication and are a big step towards improving the situation.

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UN Sec Gen Says Temple MT Was Jewish
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 31, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday morning newly elected UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres spoke on Israeli Radio. He wanted to make perfectly clear that it is clearly understood that the Holy Temple stood in Jerusalem on top of the mountain which is today called the Temple Mount.

This is Guterres' quote: "completely clear that the Temple that the Romans destroyed in Jerusalem was a Jewish Temple."

Since that very moment Palestinian leadership and media have exploded in condemnation of the UN Secretary General. They are claiming that the Secretary General does not know history.

The entire debate is ridiculous. The Palestinians are trying to rewrite history and erase historical fact.

Historical facts are not open to debate. Those who dare to make up history should be put in their place.

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Israel Happy About Trump's Wall
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 30, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

At least one company is very happy about President Trump's declaration to build a wall.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu posted a tweet that wall works and that building a wall is a good idea. He tweeted that it works in Israel and has kept Israel safe.

Magal Security Systems is the main company that built the smart wall in Israel and they are lobbying to help build the wall in America. Magal's American counterpart is called Senstar.

Senstar is scheduled to show off their FiberPatrol system in Alexandria, VA on January 31st at a conference on border security. Homeland Security and other agencies will be present at the conference.

The FiberPatrol system embeds fiber-optic sensors along fences. The system is already in place in airport perimeters across America.

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Terrorists Hacking Police
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 29, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Terrorists have begun hacking the police who monitor them.

In a twist of convention - the hunted is now hunting the hunter. Australian anti-terror police have made public that they have discovered a list of their own security forces and details about them on the computers of terrorists.

In the past terrorists and hackers, especially hacktavists, have made public names and details of police and government leaders.

The interesting twist is that ISIS is not known for hacking. This is true despite their highly advanced use of media and encryption in communication. Media and encryption is fairly easy - just follow directions to post and stay safe.

Hacking is far more complex.

Hacking requires skills.

We now know that terrorists in Australia want to hack and are trying to hack - but we do not know how successful they were in actually gaining access and information.

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Gaza Lacks Water & Electric
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 27, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Maybe you've heard of the Electricity Intifada. It is the conflict in Gaza being waged between the people and the leadership of Hamas. Youth in Gaza are up in arms that there is not enough electricity. It is the middle of the cold, wet, winter and there is not enough heat or even light for the people living in Gaza.

Many homes are lit with candles.

As if the lack of electricity was not enough, now we are seeing another dangerous crisis emerging. There is not enough fresh water to drink in Gaza.

The aquifer that services Gaza has been contaminated by sewage and the water is not drinkable. Only two of the three desalination stations are functioning and they are not producing enough drinking water.

Contamination sewage needs to be filtered before it can be released into the water system and Gazans are still waiting for at least two large desalination facilities that are being built by the EU and the UN to be completed.

Life in Gaza was never good, now it's even worse.

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Obama Jabs At Bibi Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 26, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

No doubt about it - Obama was giving a parting jab to Netanyahu.

On Friday morning, as everyone prepared for the inauguration of the 45th president, literally seconds before Donald Trump was sworn into office, Obama sent $221 million to the Palestinians.

Two Congressmen intervened and stopped the money, at least for now.

What possessed Barack Obama to do this at a time when almost every single person in DC would be occupied by the pomp circumstance of the inauguration? Did he think nobody would pay attention? Thankfully two Congressmen, Ed Royce (D-CA) and Kay Granger (R-TX) were paying attention. And someone else, in the State Department, noticed it as well.

The Congressmen had no legal means with which to stop the payment - but tradition has permitted them the power to stop these payments. Obama's people have justified his action, the last minute move, the secrecy, saying that the money was already approved by Congress in 2015 and 2016.

Any way you look at it, this move was Obama's last minute attempt to hurt Israel and Netanyahu.

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Leader of Protest Sympathizes w Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 25, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Most of us have never heard of Linda Sarsour.

She was one of the chief organizers of the massive rallies that took place the day after the Presidential inauguration. Sarsour is, without a doubt, a supporter of terror. She has tweeted about both a friend and her brother who are serving long prison sentences in Israel for recruiting mass murderers/terrorists.

Sarsour tweeted "nothing is creepier than Zionism."
Linda Sarsour is the executive director of the Arab America Association of New York. The mission statement of the organization states, "the heightened sense of fear and the acts of blatant discrimination aimed at [the Muslim] community."

On May 12, 2015 she tweeted her support for Islamic law: "You'll know when you're living under Sharia Law if suddenly all your loans & credit cards become interest free. Sound [sic] nice, doesn't it?"

Does nobody find it unusual that someone with such strong anti-
establishment feeling would be a central figure in a movement that professes to speak for mainstream America.

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Computer Virus Hits Saudi Oil
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 24, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Shamoon 2 has hit Saudi Arabia and its oil industry.

Shamoon 2 is a variant of the original Shamoon virus of 2012. The original virus shut down 35,000 Saudi computers within the Saudi oil industry, including Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia.
The virus literally brought Saudi oil production to a halt.
Speculation was that the virus was created and run out of Iran. That speculation makes sense.

And now again, from November 2016 thru December and into January of this year, an almost identical virus has been found in Saudi oil computers.

The virus strikes the host computer and quickly spreads throughout the entire network. Shamoon then relays all information and all documents back to the attacker and then destroys them on the host's own network.
Finally the virus overwrites the master boot record of the infected computer. Once the overwrite is completed, the infected computer cannot be turned on. The entire system is defunct and the files are no longer there.

This is a very powerful and very destructive virus. Anti-virus companies are all working overtime to isolate, counter and protect against this virus.

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Russia's Pivot In Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 23, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past month Russia has moved from being an actor in Syria, securing Assad's position and control, to being a mediator in Syria, trying to establish a ceasefire.

It's a hard shift, but it can be done. However - the Assad regime and the Iranians are not happy with this new role Russia has assumed. They want Russia to stay firmly on the side of Assad.

The rebels fighting Assad have no delusions that Russia is on their side. They also know that Russia has the power to influence Iran and Assad which means that a ceasefire could be in everyone's best interest.

Syria and Iran do not understand Russia. Russia is not turning its back on them, rather, the Russians are advancing their vision. In order to confront Russia, Iran and Syria need to first understand why Russia is interested in changing their established role and becoming, at the same time, a mediator and a bomber of ISIS and al Qaeda.

When they find that answer, they can try to confront Russia and influence their policy. But not before they have found the answer.

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Hamas Thinking
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 22, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas member of Parliament Marwan Abu Ras gave a sermon in a mosque recently that illustrates just how radical Hamas beliefs are.

Abu Ras said that Jews recruited prostitutes into the army "in order to lure Arabs into their traps," and further added that Jewish leaders sent "AIDS-infected girls to fornicate with Muslim youths."

He said: "My brothers, have patience. Victory is coming soon, Allah willing". He continued: "Their state is about to disappear. We do not know exactly how this will happen, but we know what our Lord and our Prophet have told us. The time for miracles is almost upon us".

"My brothers, know that people, stones, and trees all hate [the Jews]. Everyone on Earth hates this filthy nation, a nation extrinsic to Mankind. This fact was elucidated by the Quran and the Sunna."

"Oh Allah, destroy the criminal Jews and those who help and support them, as well as those who engage in security coordination with them! Oh Allah, strike them with a resounding blow, for they are no match for You. Shake their entity and bring them down. Oh Allah, drive them out of our lands in submission and humiliation! Oh Allah, enable us to kill them!"

This is the true voice of Hamas. This is what Hamas is preaching to the masses.


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ISIS Using Social Media Headhunters
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 20, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The head of Germany's domestic terror unit said that ISIS has been utilizing social media headhunters for recruiting purposes and that they have signed up children as young as 13 and 14 years old.

Social media recruiters use Facebook, Instagram and other new media. They use an algorithm to identify people who might be prime for ISIS. The next step is to send the potential recruits to ISIS recruiters to snap up the kids and send them off to join ISIS.

This is one of the most serious dangers of social media and the algorithm. Information in the wrong hands becomes a danger for all others.

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Russia & Turkey Unite to Bomb ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 19, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Turkey coordinated air strikes against ISIS yesterday. Their attack was on the town of al Bab about 30 miles northeast of Aleppo.

This is the first time that there has been a coordinated air-force effort between these two nations.

It seems that the Russians have also provided air support for Assad's forces in Dir el Zor.

Russian fighter jets also bombed outside of Palmyra. The Russians were defending the Assad forces who were squaring off against ISIS. The fear was that ISIS will once again loot and blow up the remains of the ancient city.

Russia has trimmed its air fleet, so working together with Turkey bolsters the Russians air-force presence.

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Pole Pres Put Warsaw Stone on Grave in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 18, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Poland, Andrzej Duda, is visiting Israel. This is an important trip for both countries.

The Polish president asked to include a visit to Mt Herzl, Israel's national cemetery, on his official itinerary.

While at Mt. Herzl, Duda placed a stone on the grave of Yoni Netanyahu, the brother of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was killed in the famous July 4, 1976 operation saving Jews who were hijacked, kidnapped and brought to Uganda.

The Polish president knew of Yoni's story and brought a stone from the Warsaw ghetto to place on his gravesite. The symbolism is powerful - bravery and fighting against all odds.

The Warsaw ghetto uprising and the Uganda rescue are two of the most significant, elevating and mythic stories for Israelis - as a nation, as a people and as individual Jews and Israelis.

This was a very thoughtful and positive move on the part of President Duda and the people of Poland.

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Russia Understand's Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 17, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since Russia entered Syria in 2015 Israel and Russia, more specifically Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin, are in regular contact about Syria and other issues in the Middle East.

The essence of the dialogue is the shoring up of mutual interests. In this case that means that both sides stay away from each other and not fire upon each other.

Russia's allies in Syria include President Bashar Assad and his supporters Hezbollah and Iran. They are not happy that Russia not only understands but even supports Israel's actions and bombings in Syria.

Israel does not want Assad or Hezbollah or Iran or ISIS or al Qaeda in the Golan Heights. Russia respects Israel's need to protect itself.

Open lines of communication between Putin and Netanyahu are Russia's way of de-escalating potential conflict between Israel and Russia in the air or on the ground in Syria. That is very wise.

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Iran & Its New Planes
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 16, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Passenger jets is the perfect symbol of Iran's move out of the doghouse and finding a place among the community of nations.

Both Airbus and Boeing have been competing for the huge prize of well over $130 billion in deals with Iran. Airbus represents one of the largest companies in France while Boeing symbolizes American corporations.

So far, the score is nearly even with Airbus just nosing out Boeing. Airbus now has a contract for 731 planes with Iran while Boeing has a deal for 668. This includes the 100 Airbus sold to Iran just after the sanctions were lifted.

These planes will open the doors for Iran. Tourism, trade, global interaction and much more will happen as these planes arrive in Iran and take their place in the new Iranian fleet.

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Paris Conference
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 15, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

A conference on the future of peace in the Middle East is taking place in Paris today. It is said to be the only hope to save the two state solution.

The biggest problem with this conference is that the two major players - the Israelis and the Palestinians - are not there.

The sponsors of the conference want to develop a plan acceptable to both sides. This is the second meeting of the groups in the Paris Conference. The first meeting was earlier last year, this meeting was originally scheduled for December but was postponed because the Israelis and the Palestinians were not talking.

They're still not talking. So why now?

Because it is just days before Obama leaves the White House.

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US Sends Troops to Poland
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 13, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The US sent troops into Poland. This is a direct check against Russia.

Soldiers and tanks crossed over into Poland from Germany. They crossed in the south western part of Poland and are now headquartered in the south western Polish city of Zagan.

Since the fall of communism in Poland in 1989 the Russians have been trying to influence and intimidate Poland. The Russians have never been happy about Poland's independence.

In addition, the Russians want to make certain that the US not become the main influencer in Poland. The Russians went ballistic when the Poles permitted the US to set up anti-missile batteries in Poland.

Poland fears the influence of Russia. They do not want to be another Ukraine or Crimea.

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Hamas & Israel in Talks
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 12, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An Arab Israeli newspaper has reported that Qatar is mediating between
Israel and Hamas in an effort to get back the bodies of two Israeli soldiers and the two Israelis (believed to still be alive) who were kidnapped after wandering over the border into Hamas controlled Gaza while walking on the beach.

The Qatari ambassador to the Palestinian Authority has been travelling back and forth to Gaza and is the conduit passing along messages.

The negotiations are slow to start. Hamas demanded the release of 60 prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit exchange - and then re-arrested on various terror charges.

Israel agreed - but only with the stipulation that the 60 to be expelled from Gaza or sent to Qatar.

Hamas rejected that condition.

According to the Arabic report, that is where the situation now languishes.


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Jordan Fires Imams
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 11, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's Ministry of Religious Affairs has fired fifteen Imams from their roles as leaders of mosques. Seven additional Imams are being disciplined.

The reason behind these disciplinary actions is the decision by these religious figures to refuse to pray for the recovery of the Jordanians and tourists who were wounded in terror attacks by ISIS on December 18th and 20th. In addition to those who were wounded, eleven Jordanian soldiers, two Jordanian civilians and a Canadian civilian were killed in the attacks.

The five ISIS terrorist perpetrators were also killed.

This incident illustrates just how fragile the situation is in Jordan. Jordanian leadership is fighting ISIS, but it seems that some of the rank and file - even Imam employees of the Ministry of Religion, side with the terrorist.

Jordan sees the threat of ISIS very clearly and senior leadership is working hard to buttress the country against terror and stymie the development of ISIS within Jordan.

But Jordan borders both Iraq and Syria and therein rests the problem.

Tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of refugees from both countries have fled to Jordan. Independent of that reality is the fact that there are many people in Jordan who lean toward religious extremism in the guise of ISIS or al Qaeda.

Despite it all, Jordanian leadership is stepping up their battle against terror. They must stop the trend of terror threatening to overrun their country and the region. They know what needs to be done. We all hope they can do it.

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Terror Uptick
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 10, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

There has been an uptick in terror of late.

Terror has risen in the USA and around the world. In Arab countries and in Western countries. Almost all recent acts of terror have been perpetrated by Muslim terrorists.

There have also been enormous strides in fighting terror.

In Israel this week a terrorist used a semi-tractor trailer truck to run over soldiers. After the attack, ISIS called for more truck attacks.

Also last week Israel announced that they had intercepted hundreds upon hundreds of terrorists en route to perpetrate attacks on Israelis.

Had even a few of these attacks been successful, dozens more Israelis would have died. Israel's defense establishment, along with their intel and clandestine services, is working overtime to discover and uncover terror cells before they act or to intercept the terrorists during their missions.

Kudos to Israel's defense establishment.

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Russians Are Not Pulling Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 9, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

News reports have been proclaiming that Russia is pulling out of Syria.

The headlines are exciting and entertaining - but not true. All that seems to be happening is that Russia is sending its only aircraft carrier back to port in Severomorsk. That is hardly a pullout.

The Admiral Kuznetzov only arrived in the region in mid October to the region where it dropped anchor just outside the port of Tartus. It was sent to accomplish a task.

They've finished their task and now the carrier is on its way, either to home or to its next mission. The Admiral Kuznetzov is Russia's only aircraft carrier.

Russia uses its carrier as an offensive weapon as opposed to the United States which uses their carriers as defensive weapons and to preserve peace.

The Russians have played the withdrawal card before. In March they also announced they were withdrawing. All that it really means is reorganization.

Over the past few years Russia has invested billions of dollars into their infrastructure within Syria. They are not folding up. They are reorganizing.

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Taiwan Pres to Pass Thru US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 8, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Taiwan is on her way to four Central American countries. She will travel through the United States to get there and on her return to Taiwan.

The four counties are Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala.

The Chinese are already livid about last month's conversation between the Taiwanese president and US president-elect Trump. This trip only adds fuel to the fire.

Since 1979 there have been no official diplomatic relations between the US and Taiwan - ever since China gave the United States an ultimatum: us or them. That was when the US decided to shut down relations with little Taiwan.

Taiwanese presidents have in the past, however, met with US officials when they travel through the United States.

We assume this will be the case this trip, as well. The exact dates for those meetings is still unknown.

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Israeli Investment
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 6, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is the "start up nation." That means that Israel is the high tech and biotech Mecca of the world.

During the first 9 months of 2016 Israeli venture capital companies raised $4 billion of investment. That is a 27% increase over 2015 numbers.

Others say that the increase in investment was closer to 50%.

These numbers are humbling and telling at the same time.

Israel continues to be the center stage of ideas in medicine and bio tech and tech. At the same time that Israel is the center of the world, Israel is being raked over the coals in the UN and elsewhere around the world.

Israel is on the cutting edge of music, literature, film, food and wine. There is almost nothing on the creative side of any field that is without Israeli influence.

Proof of all that is in the investments - the money to Israel keeps on flowing in.

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Iran Gets $1Billion Loan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 5, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

This news was just made public in a Reuters piece.

Vitol, the largest energy group in the world, signed a deal with Iran in exchange for oil. The deal is a loan of one billion euros which is about a billion dollars in exchange for oil, plus 8% of the oil.

This is a huge boon for Iran. It is a direct injection of money into their economy at an essential time and they are trading against their oil production - the only commodity of value they have.

Since the lifting of sanctions in March 2016 Iran has been clawing their way up to be a major force in the oil world.

This Vitol deal will help Iran emerge from their economic crisis.

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Arab Countries Learning Hebrew
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 4, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

An interesting conference was recently held in Jordan. Participants included Egyptians, Iraqis and Saudis.

The conference was about teaching Hebrew at universities in the Arabic world.

The study of Hebrew in the Arab world is summed up in the comments of the conference:

"Of course in times of war one must know the language of the enemy. Here at the conference the participants said "know thy neighbor?" Or, are they only learning Hebrew in an effort to collect intelligence, to "know thine enemy?"

The answer was given very eloquently at the workshop:
"(Hebrew) is very important to understand the 'other.' as it is only through language that we can understand the culture of the society and its way of thinking. The language can bring our nations closer."

Studying Hebrew has been part of university studies in Egypt and Iraq since the 60's. The Saudis began offering Hebrew courses in 1994. And in 2000 Jordanians began to learn Hebrew.

Learning language is a very important step in understanding culture.
The study of Arabic is not only a major staple of the Israeli educational system, it is also an official language in Israel.

This conference is a step in the right direction.

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Hamas Calls Israel Barbaric
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 3, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine - Hamas calling Israel barbaric.

That is what did they did, explaining that Israel's policy of not returning terrorists bodies to Hamas for burial is "evidence of criminality and barbaric occupation."

This policy is clearly stated by the office of the Prime Minister in order to pressure Hamas into returning the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza during the summer of 2014.

Their names are Staff Sgt. Oron Shaul and Lt. Hadar Goldin.

Hamas is also believed to be holding two more Israelis who inadvertently wandered over the border. Their names are Avraham Mengistu and Juma Ibraham Abu Anima. Mengistu, who is emotionally challenged, is of Ethiopian extraction.

This policy of the prime minister's office is the newest of several attempts to provide the Shaul and Goldin families a sense of closure. Israel has a policy of doing nearly everything to bring back the bodies of their soldiers.

Even in battle, Israel leaves no one - dead or alive - behind.

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Iranian Currency Falling Fast
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 2, 2017

I've Been Thinking:

The rial, Iranian currency, has hit an all time low against the dollar.

There are several reasons for this massive drop in value. The most obvious explanation is that, just like almost every other currency in the world, since November, the rial has dropped against the dollar.

Yes - the dollar has strengthened since the election of Donald Trump. This hurts Iran very seriously. The rial is now exchanging at nearly 43,000 to a dollar when, only a week ago, it was at 39,000 to the dollar.

This is the weakest the rial has been. In 2012 it hit its previous low of 40,000.

President Rouhani of Iran has pledged to strengthen the rial much in the same way that he brought down inflation. When he entered office Rouhani brought down Iran's inflation to single digits from over 40% inflation which is where it was before he took office.

Strengthening the rial will prove more difficult than controlling inflation. A weaker rial is going to make it harder for Iran to buy products from abroad and to import essential and luxury goods.

The Iranians have a plan. They are going to inject $5.8 billion into the Iranian economy to boost the rial and keep it all in Iran. This is a dangerous step but it may be enough to counter the downward spiral.

If the rial continues to fall, Iran will spin into hyper-inflation which will make it impossible to compete in the international market.

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Israel Arrests Tunnel Hamas Head
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On November 27th a senior Hamas commander, the brother of the head of internal security for Hamas, crossed into Israel. He was promptly arrested.
Bilal Razineh, 24, was indicted in a Beersheba court on Wednesday.

During the month-long interrogation Razineh proved to be a treasure trove of information offering intel about his brother and Hamas leadership. In addition to that, he gave over the locations of centers of command and control HQs. Most importantly, Razineh identified the exact position of many terror tunnels.
Razineh was a major player in the tunnel development. He described a labyrinth of tunnels that emanated from his family's home and then split off in many directions.

Razineh also confirmed that Hamas and Islamic Jihad used hospitals and other civilian centers as hiding places and command HQs during the conflict with Israel. He explained that he was a messenger running messages from his brother to other Hamas leaders while his brother was commanded operations out of Kamal Adwan Hospital.

That Bilal Razineh believed that he would not be arrested when he crossed into Israel is mind boggling and frankly, unbelievable.

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Kerry's Just Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Outgoing US Secretary of State John Kerry took to the media to defend his policy and the US abstention at the UN Security Council last Friday.

No doubt, his words were heartfelt and passionate. And just as certainly, what he said was deluded and wrong.

Kerry defended the Obama Middle East policy by suggesting that the only direction to take is a two-state solution. Hanging Israel out to dry at the UN was a lesson from the Obama administration intended to teach Israel a lesson and to let them know that the two state solution is the only path toward peace.

He invoked the memory of Shimon Peres as a leader and visionary of peace. And yet, Peres was never actually elected Prime Minister. He shared the position with Yitzhak Rabin in a swap to placate the party. His entire life in politics was one of second place, his policies were never voted in. Peres was a nice model for those outside Israel but not internally.

The Kerry and Obama point of view is flawed. They placed almost total responsibility for the failure of the peace process on Israel. And then they taught Israel a lesson in front of the entire world - by abandoning them. The Obama administration, according to Kerry, behaves in a fair and balanced manner.
And yet the Palestinians received no reprimand, and are exempt from accountability.

And worst of all --- Kerry forgot that Israel already withdrew from all of Gaza and relocated Jewish settlers. And what did Israel get in return? International applause... NO! They got thousand of Palestinian missiles from Gaza.

So given this experience the US should understand Israel's hesitation and demand for direct talks without preconditions. The US should be support Israel not embarrass her.

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Iran's Newest War Games
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Once again Iran is in the middle of a 5 day set of war games, conducted in the south of Iran.

The name of the war games is Defenders of Velayat Skies #7. The games include air defense drills, missile drills, artillery and radar drills and, of course, cyber and electronic war games. The games include 17,000 Iranian forces.

Included in the games are the US F-4 Phantom jet fighter and the new Russian S-300 anti air missile system.

Iranian air force chief Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili warned that any foreign aircraft over Iran's air space, including drones, will be shot down. He announced: "We are witnessing the presence of a number of trans-regional planes outside the air and sea borders of the country but we emphasize that these planes should know their limits and know that we will take action in less than one second."

This entire set of war games is also a propaganda tool, about that there is no doubt - Iran wants to send a message to Israel and the West especially the US.

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Oil Prices in Flux
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Let's talk about oil prices.

The price of oil per barrel hit a 17 month high on Friday and settled down at about $53 per barrel.

The big question is how the OPEC oil production cut will impact the price of oil. As of January 1, 2017 OPEC will reduce production by 1.8 million barrels per day.

At the same time, over the past few weeks Libya has increased their production by 22,000 barrels per day. And most importantly, Russia has increased production by 5%.

One can only expect that Russia will try to increase their profits by increasing their production to fill the need created by the OPEC reductions.
If that is what happens, OPEC will have misplayed the entire situation.

OPEC originally went to Russia to explain their production cut. Everyone thought Russia was on board, but it doesn't look that way at all right now. Russia is ready to pounce.

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More Secret Deals w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The story of the Iranian deal continues to haunt us.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has discovered that the famous nuke deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), permits Iran to keep enriched uranium above the 300 kilogram limit. The additional enriched uranium above the amount permitted was "deemed unrecoverable" by the US.

According to the IAEA, the US gave Iran an exception on uranium and would "permit the country to stockpile uranium in excess of the 300 kilogram limit set by the nuclear deal."

The US State Department could not adequately answer why this exception was never made public and how it is even possible when it directly contradicts the public agreement that was confirmed by the P5+1 and Iran.

This Iranian deal is a perfect example of Iran getting what it wants in international affairs. The most essential point is that when the international sanctions against Iran were lifted and in return, Iran was supposed to fulfill expectations and act within certain guidelines.

Clearly Iran has not held up their end of the bargain and just as clearly, the United States has sponsored Iran as Teheran skirts around their commitments.

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Why Obama Abandoned Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Still perplexed and spinning form the UN vote condemning Israel. I thought I had analyzed the possibilities from every angle and figured out every which way it would go. But it never occurred to me that the US decision would be based on childish silly character issues - not substance and history.

I was not alone.

Even the Arabic press and the Islamic press covered the US abstention as a watershed. They, too, were taken aback by the US abstention, it was seen by them also as a first -- the first time the United States did not defend Israel in the Security Council.

Sometimes it is important to investigate who was in favor of a resolution or a historical incident and who lent public support - and who did not. Then you can get a sense of which is the correct side.

Obviously, there were 14 countries who voted for the resolution.

Turkey supported the resolution. Iran supported the resolution. Hamas and Hezbollah supported the resolution. The Arab League and Syria supported the resolution. ISIS and al Qaeda supported the resolution.

Normally, when ISIS and Iran come together to support anything it is not good for the freedom and the lovers of democracy.

How and why did the United States choose to crawl into bed with these deeply nefarious and problematic groups and nations? Trust me, it was not because Obama was insulted by Netanyahu.

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Israel Busts Hamas Cell
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel uncovered a Hamas terror cell and arrested the cell members. The information was cleared for publication yesterday.

Some twenty terrorists were arrested in Shechem aka Nablus.

The group had constructed numerous bombs and procured M16s over the summer. They have been planning to perpetrate numerous shooting and bombing attacks against Israelis.

Under interrogation some of the terrorists confessed their plans to perpetrate attacks on the major cities of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa as well as other cities. Their targets would be city centers and bus stops.

Apprehending these terrorists utilized great intelligence resources and analysis. Had the terrorists succeeded the attacks would have been devastating.

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Iran Will Get 1st Airbus in a few Weeks
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

In a few weeks Iran will be receiving their first Airbus commercial plane. It will upgrade their antiquated fleet. The plane is scheduled arrive in Teheran just after the New Year.
A journalist witnessed the Iran Air logo being painted on the Airbus.

The initial plan is for Iran to purchase 100 Airbus planes for about $1 billion. In the final stages Iran will get twice as many Airbus planes - about 200 planes. And it seems that on top of all that, Iran just signed another deal for another 80 Airbus planes.

There is also talk about the planes being leased by several leasing company. Word is that the leases would be in Euros and not in dollars.

Normally Airbus requires payment in dollars.

Sanctions have been lifted and Iran is off and running. With the new planes they can expand their tourism market and they will, once again, be permitted to fly over and get landing rights in airports around the world. Given the condition of the old planes Iran was not permitted to fly over many European countries or land in many airports.
The Airbus deal is very important for Iran.


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Israel Offers to Help Aleppo
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has invited Aleppo survivors to come to Israel and to provide medical care for those in need.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement: --- "We see the tragedy of terrible suffering of civilians and I've asked the Foreign Ministry to seek ways to expand our medical assistance to the civilian casualties of the Syrian tragedy, specifically in Aleppo," said Netanyahu.

The statement continued "We're prepared to take in wounded women and children, and also men if they're not combatants. We'd like to do that: bring them to Israel, take care of them on our hospitals as we've done with thousands of Syrian civilians. We're looking into ways of doing this; it's being explored as we speak."


Israel has the ability to help. The real question is whether those in need will allow Israel to provide the aid they are ready to offer in order to save thousands of lives.

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Putin & Rouhani Speak about Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Hassan Rouhani. The conversation came at the initiative of Iran.

Putin told Rouhani that he hopes to get a resolution in Syria as soon as possible.

This came to us via a Kremlin statement declaring that Putin wants to put this Syrian issue to bed.

A summit is scheduled for Wednesday in Moscow. Russia, Turkey, Iran and even Syria will sit down and discuss how to quickly bring the situation to an end.

Russia has an influence on Iran. Putin knows that he has that power. And there will be important instances when Russia's influence will prove essential in bringing about a resolution between Iran and the world community of nations.

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Iran Promises to Uphold Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yukiya Amano, head of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), the UN's nuclear watchdog, just visited Iran and met with Iranian leadership.

Iran convinced Amano that they are committed to fulfilling and living up to the terms of the now infamous nuke deal. The meeting was covered by media across the world.

At the same time, Iran also asserted that when the US Congress resumed sanctions against them, even without President Obama's signature it was "inconsistent" - meaning it was a violation of the nuke deal.

It is hard to take what Iran says seriously. All I can say is that the Iranians are very good at playing the game of nuclear chess.

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Mossad Assassinates Hamas Engineer in Tunisia
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors, many spurred on by media outlets, about a Mossad assassination in Tunisia of a Hamas operative, abound.

Piecing together the pieces this is probably what happened - and why.
Mohammed al Zawahiri, also known as Murad, was on his way home at 1:50am when his car was overtaken by several other cars. He was shot in the throat and the heart, literally, while speaking on the phone.

Zwaharia was working on a doctorate in engineering. But the motivation for the assassination was his work for Hamas. He is the man who developed automated spy drones for Hamas and was in Tunisia working on an automated submarine. This information comes from his brother Radwan.

There is no connection to the Mossad.

The people so far arrested include the car rental agents who supplied the assassins with their cars. Weapons and silencers were found in one of the cars. A Hungarian female journalist was also arrested as was a camera man.

The assassins dismantled all the cameras in the area redirecting the video feed elsewhere in the city to cover the time and details of the assassination.

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Tech Companies Join to Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and Microsoft are collaborating to fight extremism.

Yesterday a message went out saying that they will all share information through a central database of sites and material that they have hashed as problematic. Hashing is the term used to describe the computer additive that the tech companies attach to problematic sites, videos, images and activities and discussions.

They will all go into a shared industry data base so that once caught, extremists cannot reinvent themselves on another platform.

This is a major step forward. These tech gurus have all been seriously criticized for not doing enough in combating extremism and sometimes, for not even acting against terror and extremism at all.

This collaborative effort will really help. This is an important and very positive step.

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Assad Says Putin & Trump See Eye to Eye
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Assad of Syria was interviewed by Portugal RTP Television. The president of Syria explained that he is hopeful about Trump's presidency and his Middle East policy. He also suggested that Putin and Trump will be great allies.

Assad said that if Trump is committed to fighting terror, he will be great for Syria.

"We cannot tell anything about what he's going to do, but if... he is going to fight the terrorists, of course we are going to be ally, natural ally in that regard with the Russian, with the Iranian, with many other countries," he told Portugal's RTP state television.

"Trump's statements were clear during his campaign in relation to fighting terrorism, non-intervention against states in order to depose governments, as the United States has been doing for decades."

"This is good, but this depends on Trump's will to carry on with this approach, and his ability to do that."

Assad commenting on Trump and Putin has no foundation in reality value except that it shows what Assad is thinking.

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Mass Murder Of Christians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday a suicide bomber murdered 24 Christians and wounded almost another 50 people in attendance at Marks Christian Cathedral in Egypt. The suicide bomber was a 22 year old named Mahmoud Shafik Mohammed Mostafa.

ISIS claims responsibility for the terror attack.

This was a terrible attack. Thankfully, this time the Western world paid attention and the Western press covered the terror attack against Egypt's Coptic Christians.

The plight of Christians, who were repeatedly attacked by Muslims in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East, has been ignored for way too long. They tragedies were, at best, simply ignored. Other times they were even justified.

Christians are being targeted by ISIS and other Islamic extremists.

Not to see this is not to understand ISIS or the Middle East.

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Iran's War Games
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is conducting war games. The games began on Sunday and will continue through Wednesday.

Patting their own back, Iranians are calling it a demonstration of Iran's "superiority" in the region.

These war games include all the various branches of the Iranian military - land, sea and air. Particularly new in these war games is the use of Iran's newest unmanned drones.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran's military forces enjoy supremacy over the Persian Gulf region more than any other time," Brigadier General Massoud Jazzayeri, the deputy chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, was quoted as saying over the weekend. "The military and security conditions of the Persian Gulf are in a way that the enemy's forces and equipment are fully within the range of the Iranian military men."

The other very special weapon Iran claims to be testing is their new jammers - a system that will block and bring down enemy drones. They also are showing off their newest missiles, helicopters and ammunition.

Iran is showcasing their great weapons and saying that they will defend themselves against attacks from Western forces. And quite honestly, Iran really does have an impressive array of advanced defensive weapons.

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ISIS ReTakes Palmyra
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The pendulum is swinging back again and this time Palmyra is squarely in the hands of ISIS.

The battle for Palmyra began in March of 2015 and then, in May of 2016, Russia took charge. Russia withdrew in early December and ISIS has taken over total control of Palmyra and the entire region.

Now Russia is bombing Palmyra in an attempt to take back the city and the province.

Many people have been killed on both sides.

As a result of the bombing ISIS fled the center of the city. Now, the bombing has stopped, and reporting on all sides says that over the past few hours ISIS has returned and once again established control of the city Palmyra.

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Company That Builds Israel's Subs Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The company that is making Israel's top secret submarines and patrol boats was hacked.

ThyssenKrupp, arguably the largest steel manufacture in the world, was hacked sometime in February. The attack was discovered only two months ago. According to the company report, the marine division was not hacked.

But that might not be so. Upon further analysis it is unclear what was or wasn't hacked and what was taken. ThyssenKrupp's own computer defense unit detected the hack. They assert that, as of now, the material hacked and stolen was from the unit of Industrial Solutions.

This is very troubling - also expected.

It appears that the hackers came from Asia. That, too, is par for the course.

The hackers want info and intel and they want to sell it to the highest bidder.

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Israel Bombs Near Damascus 2Xs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Official Syrian News Agency (SANA) reported that Israel bombed a Damascus suburb for the second time this week. According to the report Israel fired surface missiles at an airbase outside Damascus.

Israel is typically silent about these issues, they do not respond when questioned. This time, however, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said "We are trying to prevent the smuggling of sophisticated weapons, military hardware and weapons of mass destruction from Syria to Hezbollah."

Liberman's statement was a message for both Syria and Hezbollah.

Liberman's statement left out some essential components that all the parties who needed to know, clearly knew.

Israel was preventing weapons of mass destruction (WMD's) from being transferred by Syria to Hezbollah.

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MiGs Crash in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

For the second time in only a few weeks, a Russian MiG fighter jet has crashed in Syria near their only aircraft carrier.

Two MiG crashes near their aircraft carrier is causing people to conclude that the problem has less to do with the MiGs and probably more to do with the carrier.

The Russian carrier is ancient, it is named the Admiral Kuznetsov. It does not have a catapult system which is what helps the jets land and takeoff. Without a catapult, landing and taking off is very difficult.

The ship is over 30 years old and it is simply not up to standards.

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Islamic Terrorist Sentenced in Ohio
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

In January of 2015, twenty-two year old Christopher Lee Cornell planned to assassinate President Obama in the Capitol Building as he delivered his State of the Union address.

Yesterday, Cornell was sentenced to 30 years in a federal court in Cincinnati. The judge also added a life sentence of probation after the 30 years end. Cornell was convicted of "attempted murder of US officials and employees."

As he was convicted Cornell called out "Allah is in control, not the judge."

This is just another example of Islamic terrorism. Thankfully, this time the plot was uncovered and the terrorist, Cornell, was caught.

There are many others like Cornell out there, plotting to do harm to the United States.

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Australia Rejects 2500 Refugees- US Takes them
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

2,465 refugees were rejected from Australia. They have been accepted to enter the United States.

The refugees were being held in temporary camps in Papua New Guinea and Nauru as they tried to get into Australia. They are from Iran, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, and Sudan. The story has been reported in the Australian press and on FoxNews.

Some in Congress are livid. Two Congressmen sent a scathing letter to US Secretary of State John Kerry and Homeland Security Director Jeh Johnson who agreed to accept these refugees from dangerous countries. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Congressman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) condemn the situation as "concerning for many reasons" foremost because:

"...your departments negotiated an international agreement regarding refugees without consulting or notifying Congress."

They said that Congress only learned of this deal "through the media". These two legislators maintain that even they have been unable to learn how many of the 2,465 refugees will, in the end, actually be transferred to the U.S.

The entire situation is unacceptable. We will see how it is resolved.

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Egypt Floods Tunnels and Kills 4
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas radio reported that the bodies of three Palestinians were recovered in a smuggling tunnel this morning, they are still searching for a fourth.

The smuggling tunnel ran from Gaza into Egypt. The Egyptians flooded the tunnel with sea water and the tunnel collapsed with the 4 smugglers inside.

Flooding the tunnels was one of Egypt's most effective methods of confronting the tunnel threat. All kinds of people and goods came and went through the tunnels and the Egyptians were powerless to stop them or even monitor what and who was coming in and going out.

The issue came to a head in 2015 when it was clear that terror groups were shuttling people and weapons in to and out of Egypt and that they were attacking Egyptian targets in major cities. At that point, the Egyptians started flooding the tunnels.

Throughout most of this year, however, Egypt has turned a blind eye to the tunnels.

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Huge Raid On Cyber Mafia
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Ten countries from around the globe worked together, coordinating their efforts, utilizing their counter cyber resources, and arresting and shutting down one of the largest cyber crime syndicates in history.

Germany was the focal point of the raid. In the end, 16 people were arrested in 10 countries, but the group carried out their investigation in 40 countries.

Here are some impressive numbers. 39 servers and 50,000 computers were confiscated. It is the biggest botnet ever, actually a zombie army infecting over 900,000 routers.

The routers were all infected with malicious software, each of them sending out notes that asked recipients to click or open an email. If they clicked, their system became part of the botnet. Deutsche Telekom was attacked. They repelled the attack but it brought the entire German internet to a freeze for a few minutes.

Over a million emails were sent each week. The objectives were numerous. The cyber terrorists were gathering and selling information and intel as well as gaining access to many high value targets.

And now, it's over. Mission accomplished.

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The Trump Bump
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Austrians will go to the polls and vote for a president.

Ever since the US presidential results came in, pundits in Austria and throughout Europe have been talking about The Trump Effect and the Trump Bounce.

One Austrian candidate is a populist named Norbert Hofer. He is pit against liberal, left leaning, Alexander Van der Bellen. As of now, Hofer is up in the polls.

Elections everywhere across the world are trying to tap into the phenomenon of Trump Energy. Elections are often more about the candidates than about issues, this election broke even those barriers.

In order to duplicate Trump-like effects you can't just be like Trump, you have to be Donald Trump himself.

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Russia Setting Up Hospital in Aleppo
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send a field hospital into Aleppo, Syria. This hospital will provide 100 beds and will be able to serve 420 people daily in outpatient services.

So many Syrians have been displaced and so many need medical help. Now Russia is bringing in medical care with trained medical professionals.

It is not pure altruism. Aleppo is in crisis and Russia sees that it is in their interests to help avert more civilian crises.

Russia only acts when it is in their best interests. They know how dangerous and how problematic the situation in Syria is, especially in Aleppo. But they need to secure the support of the masses against ISIS and al Nusra, a branch of al Qaeda.

With the help of the masses Russia can re-establish power and provide Syria with the stability that the Syrians so badly need.

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Mosul- Not Over Yet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi forces have killed as many as 1000 ISIS fighters in Mosul.

Only one Iraqi unit actually entered into Mosul from the East where the massive fighting was - this group is called the Golden Division and they are an elite, highly trained, unit.

The advance on Mosul has taken 6 weeks. The momentum is now squarely on the side of the Allies and the Iraqi establishment.

But ISIS has constantly been surprising the allies. I predict that they have other surprises up their sleeves in Mosul.

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Iran Wants Navel Bases in Syria & Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to open distant naval bases - in Syria and in Yemen.

This is a very aggressive and telling move for Iran. It should be extremely worrying to the Sunni Muslims in the region. But they are not the only country which should worry, this move is also a threat against the rest of the world.

The plan was made public in a news piece published in the Shargh daily newspaper, an official news outlet. It quoted an important general.

"We need distant bases, and it may become possible one day to have bases on the shores of Yemen or Syria, or bases on islands or floating (bases)," said General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, quoted by the Shargh daily newspaper. "Is having distant bases less than nuclear technology? I say it is worth dozens of times more."

To even suggest that these bases are more important than the nuclear deal is huge. These new bases will be asserting a new power and putting Shiite Iran in close range of almost every regional center in the Middle East.

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Fires in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The fires ravaging Israel are acts of terror.

Several people have been arrested. Police have videos of people lighting fires. Entire communities have been evacuated - hundreds of thousands of people.

Thankfully, there have been no arson-related deaths, but many have been hospitalized for smoke-related injuries.

Minister Naftali Bennett said the terrorists "tried to kill an entire town". Bennett and Minister Avigdor Lieberman say that the answer to this type of terrorism is rebuilding and then building even more.
The cost of the fires will easily top $2 billion, maybe even $3 billion.

Terrorists have struck at the heart of the every single Israel. Israeli education stresses the beauty and the importance of nature and the value of land - especially the land of Israel.

Even those whose homes have not been threatened, or those who live out of the danger zone, are in pain about the loss and the damage.
Why would terrorists destroy the very same land that they want and claim to love?

Because, Palestinian terrorists gladly cut off their own arms when it results in Israelis losing a finger.

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Terrible Fires in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Tens of thousands of Israeli's have been evacuated from their homes.
The University of Haifa was evacuated. The major prison in Haifa was evacuated. It is a devastating situation. It is a catastrophe.
Every Israeli is wrenched and pained by the fires ravaging the land and the lives of their fellow citizens.

It was undoubtedly arsonists who set the first four fires. The wind has helped to spread the circle of destruction. The police have made arrests. They say that the arson was nationally/politically motivated. That means terror.

Who would burn the land they supposedly love? Who would want to throw Jews out of their homes?

Cyprus and Greece sent four planes to help fight the fire. Russia, UK, Turkey, and Italy have also sent fire fighting planes. Prime Minister Netanyahu called on Evergreen, a US based company that has a 747 filled with water and was used to help fight the Carmel fires in 2010, and asked for their assistance. The plane drops 94,850 liters of water. Even the Palestinians sent four teams of firefighters.

Israel is usually front page news, but not this time. The devastation, the national pain, the fires burning through Israel have hardly made a blip on the international news cycle. The reason should be obvious. No deaths. No abuse of Palestinians. This story does not have any of the requisite elements needed to make international headlines.

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Mosul Close to Liberation
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Since the assault to take back Mosul began last month, on October 17th, there has been slow progress towards achieving that goal.

But yesterday a major blow was struck against ISIS. The main supply road linking Mosul, Iraq to Raqqa, Syria was taken over by the Iraqi Shiite Militia, known as Hashed al Shaabi.

Air support was provided by the United States, but the ground fighting against ISIS was done by Iraqi Shiites.

On the very same day the US air-force destroyed the 4th bridge crossing the Tigris River into Mosul.

Cutting off the trade and travel route is very important. The entire route is 182 miles long. If it is interrupted it will make it nearly impossible for ISIS to send fighters from Raqqa to reinforce and help their fighters in Mosul.

These are their two remaining strongholds.

Iraqi sources estimate that there are between 5,000 to 10,000 ISIS fighters in Mosul. Amassing outside of Mosul are close to 100,000 Iraqi and other troops.

The battle is not over yet - but the end is in sight for liberating Mosul from ISIS.

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Ex Nazis Still Drawing a Pension in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It is possible that 10's of thousands of Nazis are still collecting pensions from Germany.

There were 50,000 suspected Nazis working in Germany and as of 20 years ago Germany passed a law stating that suspected war criminals were to be stripped of their pensions.

After an investigation, it was uncovered that over the years of the 50,000 suspected workers, only 99 people have lost their pensions.

The German Ministry of Labor would not comment on this figure or about why so many suspected Nazis have continued to draw money from the state.

This is a terrible abuse of taxpayer money. Money should go to victims - not to murderers.

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Iran Exporting Heavy Water
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has too much heavy water. It is a violation of the infamous nuke deal signed 18 months ago between Iran and the six world powers.

Heavy water helps cool down the technology that enriches plutonium.

Iran has decided to export the extra heavy water. It's not a lot, it comes to about 220 pounds of heavy water.

How is that done? How do we even know about this? The Iranian media ran a piece yesterday citing diplomatic sources who said that the heavy water was already sold and shipped to Oman.

This is not a violation of the infamous agreement. Actually, it is the objective of Iran and has been from the start. Iran has always wanted to supply the rest of the world with nuclear materials. Iran was angered and insulted that the United States would not permit other countries to have nuclear materials.

Iran is doing what they want to do - just as they always do.

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Assassins in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Two assassination attempts against Egyptian President al Sisi were just foiled by Egypt's police. The assassins were members of ISIS.

Egypt is experiencing very difficult economic and social tensions. Al Sisi is working hard at keeping terrorists at bay, but it is a difficult battle.

One of the assassination plots was to be carried out at the Clock Tower Hotel in Mecca during the president's pilgrimage to the Hajj.
The plan was for the wife of the plot organizer to put on a suicide belt and blow herself up. The suicide bomb was intended to serve as a distraction for al Sisi's guards and he would be killed.

At the same time that al Sisi was being murdered, the ISIS plotters planned to assassinate the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammed bin Nayyef.

Egyptian police also uncovered a second ISIS plot. They call the plotters the bearded police and they have been arrested and charged.

Assassination is a commonly used weapon in the Middle East. ISIS is exploiting those who are loyal to the cause, many of whom work inside mainstream professions, by getting them to hand over information and facilitate access to targets. That is exactly what happened in Mecca and in Egypt.

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Palestinian Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

There is a significant movement rising up against Palestinian leadership in the Palestinian Authority.

The movement includes violent armed conflicts and shootouts with PA security and police pitted against armed locals in villages and towns like Ballata.

Ballata is a refugee camp outside of Shechem/Nabuls.

What makes this current internal conflict different from previous conflicts is that this time those fighting the establishment are not from Hamas - they are true blue Fatah supporters and always have been. They are people who have gotten to the point where they can no longer tolerate Palestinian corruption.

They support Mohammed Dahlan.

Dahlan is in exile and living in Abu Dhabi. Once upon a time he was one of Arafat's fair-haired boys and was the strong arm power of the PA in Gaza. Abbas and Dahlan came into conflict when Dahlan accused Abbas' two sons of corruption by using their power to amass personal financial success.

Dahlan was then convicted, in absentia, of corruption and of besmirching the name of the president.

The corruption is just one element of the discontent and resulting armed conflicts.

Palestinians are rejecting PA leadership because they have come to the full realization that there is no hope for change in the leadership. People are discouraged. Jobs are given only to insiders and their families.

The situation is getting so bad that the shootouts themselves have claimed the lives of at least 12 people and resulted in the wounding of dozens others.

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MidEast Importing US Natural Gas
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The US is exporting natural gas from shale to the Middle East.
Two shipments of liquefied natural gas went to Kuwait, one to the United Arab Emirates and two to Jordan. This is mind boggling.

Kuwait and the UAE together hold 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves. And they have more than 100 years of natural gas reserves.

So why are they importing US natural gas?

The answer is that they have a shortage of usable natural gas.
How? Here's how. They have heavily subsidized gas and fixed prices and they have a huge amount of wasted energy. Prices are so low and demand is crazy high --- so they need much more. Their gas is sour which means it has to be purified. It contains far too much hydrogen sulfide. That is expensive -- way above the price being charged per
BTU in these gas rich Middle East countries.

And that's why it is getting cleaner gas from the US makes sense, even if it is counter intuitive.

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Bibi on Russia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke about Israeli Russian relations. Given Russia's new role in Syria and the Middle East, everyone is concerned that an unintended skirmish might accidently become a reality.

Netanyahu said: "We are in close contact with Russia. I met four times over the last year with Putin in order to avoid any clashes that nobody wants between the IDF and the Russian army. So far, there has not been one and we hope there will not be one. The reality in the Middle East changes extremely fast and not always to our detriment. We need one thing and that is to be strong."

Yesterday, on Monday, Russia increased its intense bombing in Aleppo. The air attack originated from the aircraft carrier they have stationed off the coast of Tartus. That is the same carrier where, on Sunday, a MIG-29 crashed while landing.

Accidents happen in the air. But Israel and Russia want to make certain that, just in case, they will not be in one another's.


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Israel is the World's Best
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has awarded Israel the honor of being the country with the best disaster relief system in the world.

Israeli field hospitals are now ranked the best in the world.

The WHO said that Israel has a unique ability to deploy large, fully outfitted, medical teams with field hospitals at a second's notice and travel all over the world. The WHO evaluated Israel's teams as highly skilled.

People who monitor Israel and people who monitor world catastrophe know full well the grand and spectacular role Israel plays.

This is not an award - it is an honest evaluation. The truth is that whenever there is a world crisis, Israel volunteers and is almost always welcome.

Israel saves lives and teaches others how to save lives.

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Iran's Oil Production
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is once again violating their OPEC agreement.

This is upsetting Saudi Arabia more than anyone else. Iran is a member of OPEC and has agreed to their production quotas.

The purpose of the production quotas is to keep the price of oil as high as possible without creating a crisis that would stimulate research for new alternatives to fossil fuels.

Iran has begun producing about 250,000 barrels from the Karoun River valley, up from 65,000. President Rouhani says that productions in the valley should reach 1 million barrels per day --- ASAP. "Oil production west of Karoun must reach one million barrels per day," Rouhani said, referring to the North Azadegan, Yadavaran and Yaran fields. "This is a realistic goal, and we need investment and technology."

This will be a massive change in Iran's production. There is no doubt that the increase in oil production will have two effects. More cash will flow into Iran and the price of oil will drop.

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Iran Violates Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, Iran has violated the nuclear agreement.

This time around they violated the agreement at the very moment that they were warning President Elect Trump not to walk back on the famous agreement.

This information comes from the Associated Press.
AP saw a copy of a secret UN report by the IAEA stating that Iran has recently exceeded their agreed upon heavy water limit, which was 143.3 metric tons.

Iran went over by .10 metric tons.

The significance of this is enormous. Heavy water is an essential component of refining plutonium for use in nuclear technology.

Reports of these violations are few and far between. That's because few people want to harp on the inadequacies of the agreement and the policing process.

This is just one example. Like so many others, this violation went without notice. This was not the first violation and, worse still, it will not be the last.

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Rebels in Syria Prefer Turmp
By Micah Halpern

November 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

From what I am hearing, seeing and reading, Donald Trump's election to the presidency is seen as a positive by the rebels in Syria.

The rebels see Trump's ascent as a welcome change. They were very disappointed with Obama's lack of action = especially after Putin and Russia put boots on the ground in order to secure president Assad of Syria.

The rebels realize that Trumps has been very clear about ISIS and about taking the fight to ISIS. But they are also frustrated that the United States has not supported them in their battle against Assad and ISIS and al Qaeda and Hezbollah.

The rebels needed the US and Obama would not help. Now they are hoping that this new president will act and give them the weapons and the support they need to adequately fight ISIS and bring down Assad.

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What Really Happened in the Election
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Trump's election to the highest office in the land has many stunned.

Strange reasons were given for his victory.

The entire paradigm has shifted. The Democratic and Republican parties are no longer what they once were.

The Republican party is no longer the party of the wealthy and the elite. It is the party of the blue color worker and those who want to eek out an honest living.

The Democratic party was once the party of the worker, not just the organized worker. The Democratic party has been transformed and is now the party of the elite intelligentsia.

The former elite party is now the party of the honest worker. The former party of the workers, the party that looked out for the little guy, is now a party of people who are detached from workers, their needs and their issues.

It's quite an inversion.

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Long Live the King
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 9. 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The king is dead -- long live the king. That is how Charles VII of France was ushered onto the throne after the death of his father, Charles VI.

It is all about a smooth transition of power.

Mr. Donald Trump is the next president of the United States.
Most of pundits were wrong, they misread the polls and the numbers.
Analysts misunderstood the tone and the basics of what was happening in America. They could not - or did not, place proper weight on the messages and the answers that were given to them in the polls.

Establishment leaders and mainstream media could not admit that average Americans were feeling betrayed. There is a class divide.
While the country's leaders and elite could not believe that anyone would vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump, the people, in fact, voted for him resoundingly

It is clear that change is the best theme for a successful campaign. In fact, that was the theme that got Barack Obama elected in both his campaigns.

This is a revolution, a real change.

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Election Day
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It's Election Day. Certainly, an exciting day.

As I mentioned, Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner visited the grave of the Lubavicther Rebbe the other day. Yesterday, the Satmar Chasidic sect endorsed Hillary. Satmar is divided into two large groups and both they support Hillary.

This is very unusual. The vast majority of the Orthodox Jewish community in the US will vote Republican. The vast majority of American Jews in general will cast their votes for Democrats. That's the history of American Jewry.

On the other hand, the Satmar have a long history of supporting the Clintons.

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Egypt To Buy Iran's Oil
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian oil minister took a trip to Iran yesterday. It has been a very long time since any senior Egyptian official traveled to Iran.

The reason for the visit is that the Saudis suspended their oil deal with Egypt last October after Egypt supported a UN resolution on Syria. It was a resolution that the Saudis opposed vehemently.

This entire move is very unusual.

The Saudis have supported Egypt since al Sisi took over. They have been Egypt's financial safety net. By going to Iran a new avenue for oil is opening for Egypt. It could be a gesture of independence on Egypt's part or, it could be simply a head fake.

Saudi Arabia was a major Egyptian benefactor. If Egypt actually does sign a deal with Iran it could shake up the entire balance in the Middle East.

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Ivanka Visits Grave of Rebbe
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Here are two interesting tidbits to mull over on the eve of the US Presidential election.

# 1: Ivanka Trump and her husband Jarred Kushner visited the grave of the Lubavitcher Rebbe. The obvious reason was to court a very powerful and influential segment of the Orthodox Jewish community, a community which is already voting Republican.

The second reason is that they really were appealing to the awesome power of the Rebbe to help and assist Donald Trump in the election process. I am certain that they are not alone. Many people are praying for their candidate to win.

# 2: In the ISIS online journal called Al Hayat which is produced by the communications team of ISIS a call went out for US Muslims to boycott the presidential election and, instead, vote with blood by attacking Americans.

The very long article was filled with pictures and quotes from the Koran speaking about the "Murtadd." The Murtadd is an apostate, a former Muslim who must be killed. ISIS identifies US Muslim leaders as Murtadd.

There has been actionable intel of threats on election day in New York City, Texas and Virginia.

What we have here in these two tidbits are two sides of the coin.

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Israel Warns Iran Controls Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Avi Dichter, chair of Israel's Knesset Defense and Intelligence Committee, reported to the Swiss Parliament that Iran is commanding a force of 25,000 fighters in Syria. The force is actually a foreign legion composed of Pakistanis and Afghanis ... not Iranians.

Iran trained, commands and supports the fighters.

Dichter explained that Iran has brought both this force and Hezbollah into Syria. He said that these forces are not fighting ISIS at all. They are fighting the rebels and any group challenging Assad. He also described their advanced weapons and their skills.

Bottom line: Hezbollah has gained much needed experience while fighting in Syria and defending Assad. All courtesy of Iran.

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Putin Defies Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Putin and Russia defy the world. They have snubbed their proverbial noses at UN Security Council sanctions that were slapped on them after the 2014 land grab of Crimea.

Russia ordered two Mistral helicopter carriers from France. But sanctions did not permit France to deliver the ships.

Now fast forward to the end of September 2016.

That's when France delivered two Mistral carriers to Egypt. Supposedly, the Saudis paid for the ships.

The delivery was covered in the Egyptian press with great fanfare. Then the carriers disappeared. They have now re-appeared off the coast of Tartus, Syria as Russian helicopter carriers. Is anyone surprised?

The Polish minister of defense uncovered the entire story and made it public by announcing that the Egyptians sold the French ships to the Russians for a single dollar. The minister said that his intelligence was reliable.

This is a blatant end around UN sanctions. It completely demonstrates how all the parties involved in this charade simply do not care what the UN decrees and will do whatever they can and whatever they want to advance their own goals.

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Israeli Mr Universe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Arnold Schwarzenegger. He won the Mr. Universe title four times in the under 23 year old under division.

This week in Birmingham, England, Israeli Kobi Yifach won the same title of Mr. Universe. This is a huge feather in the cap of Israel.
As Kobi said "It's an amazing feeling to wrap myself in the Israeli flag. I came from such a small country and became the center of attention. This is unprecedented!"

Israel is a tiny country not only in the world of body building but in the world in general. This victory puts Israel on both maps.

Mr. Universe is the most prestigious of all body building awards.
Future competitions will tell whether Israel is a fixture in the body building community of simply a blip on it radar.


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UAE Convicts Hezbollah Cell
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) convicted and sentenced 7 people to sentences of up to life in prison for being members of a cell connected to Hezbollah, which is a Shiite group sponsored by Iran and headquartered in Lebanon.

The 7 were tried and convicted of various degrees of espionage.

Cell members transferred pictures of oil fields and maps and the locations of gas fields. The convictions prove that the Sunnis of the UAE are actively trying to stop Shiite organization and aggression.

This is no small act on either side.

Hezbollah's objective is destabilize Sunni centers of power. The Sunnis are trying to repel Shiite incursions into their homes.

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OPEC Disagreement
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC had their meeting on Friday and the 14 oil nations could not agree on a central issue.

Iran and Iraq want to continue to produce more oil. They need the money - their main source of revenue is oil.

The other members said that Iran and Iraq need to hold to their production quotas to keep the market stable. This is especially true now as the price of oil is increasing --- if they flood the market with more oil, the price will certainly drop.

OPEC set another meeting for November 30.

In the meantime OPEC members will meet with other oil producing countries.

OPEC is trying to collude, they want to confirm that all oil producing countries are on the same page.

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Shiites Shoot Missile Toward Mecca
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The other day the Shiite Houthis of Yemen launched a missile into Saudi Arabia. The missile was intercepted 40 miles from Mecca by a Patriot anti missile battery.

The Shiite Houthis are involved in a civil war in Yemen backed by the Iranians. They claim that the missile was not aimed at Mecca but rather, it was aimed at their second largest city Jeddah with a population of 4 million.

The Saudis say that this attack was a terrible violation. It effectively broke through the glass ceiling. The Shiites respect Mecca as a Muslim site, but they resent Saudi control over the site.

This assault was a massive game changer.

There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia will respond to an attack of this magnititude with a serious and significant counter attack.

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Abbas Meets W Hamas Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmud Abbas, the leader of Fatah and the President of the Palestinian Authority, met yesterday with the two leaders of Hamas. The meeting took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar. It was sponsored by the Qatari foreign minister.

The objective of the meeting was a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. Abbas did not want to meet with the Hamas leaders. His advisers and handlers repeatedly said that there were no plans for a meeting in Qatar despite rumors from Hamas and Qatar leadership.

An official statement from Abbas' office said that the meeting was a business lunch and the objective was to try to reconcile the two sides.

Despite the fact that they had lunch together, there is no chance for that Hamas and Fatah will get together. They hate one another and do not trust each other.

This is just the most recent set of events resulting from the election that Abbas cancelled and that Hamas barred Fatah from participating in.

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Saudis Sign Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, World Nuclear News published an announcement that Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia have signed a nuclear pack.

Saudi Arabia has plans to create 300 nuclear facilities over the next few years and this agreement with Kazakhstan is a huge component of the larger picture. Kazakhstan sits on 12% of the world's uranium. Together with Russia, which will enrich the uranium, Saudi Arabia can now create the nuclear material that will enable them to create nuclear plants.

Saudi Arabia already has nuclear deals with Argentina, France, China, Finland, Hungary, Indonesia, Russia and South Korea.

This agreement with Kazakhstan puts Saudi Arabia squarely on the nuclear map.

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Cyber Attack on Friday Was a Warning
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Friday's cyber attack is an important warning to us all.

On Friday, Twitter, Snapchat, Vox, Reddit, Etsy, Netflix and Amazon all came under cyber attack.

They all went down.

This was an amazing cyber attack and it was spread through kiddy cams and home routers.

The essential point is that future conflicts will be centered around cyber attacks.

Future wars will more than likely utilize cyber attacks.

They will certainly be less bloody than traditional wars, but the fall out and the damage caused by cyber attacks is still unknown.

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Price of Oil is Rising
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Knew it would happen. It did!!!

Oil hit $50 a barrel. The Saudis are elated. So are the Iranians. And everyone else in OPEC, too.

To give some perspective: In January oil was below $30 a barrel. In February it fell even more, to $26. And now - oil is expected to hit $60 a barrel by year's end.

The changes are due to several factors.

The two most important factors involve Venezuela and Russia.

During the first week of October Iran and Venezuela agreed to freeze production in an effort to stabilize the market, i.e. to increase the price of oil. Then during the 3rd week of October, OPEC and Russia agreed to a production reduction.

There is great distrust of Russia, and yet, the price of oil is rising.

This is good news for Iran and Saudi Arabia and of course for Russia.

It is bad news for us.

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Iran Preps to Kidnap More Americans
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been positioning itself to kidnap more Americans. Just a few months ago, in a reversal of long standing policy, the US transferred $1.7 billion to Iran in exchange for freeing American hostages in Iranian custody.

Since the release of those hostages, Iran has taken more Americans.
It is inevitable that the new hostages will be ransomed for billions more dollars.

The Iranians have already begun discussions, or rather negotiations, for the lives of these Americans.

Iran wants to kidnap Americans and use them to make money. They are
already on their way.

The precedent has been set.

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ISIS Loses Money Sources
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

One of the most important effects of the United States' and Allies' strikes against ISIS in Mosul, is that the pounding and the invasion is resulting in the shrinking of ISIS resources and of monies immediately available to them.

The attack on Mosul is causing a shrinking of ISIS oil and gas and cash and bank accounts - essentials that have been the foundation of their state since 2014.

Most of these resources have now fallen back into the hands of the Iraqis.

ISIS has been forced to turn to other means of generating cash.
They are raising income by increasing their extortion and protection programs. They are also increasing their kidnapping efforts and are raising money from foreign supporters.

Without money, ISIS will die a slow death.

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Dropping Leaflets in Mosul
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Iraqi army dropped leaflets over Mosul early Sunday morning warning residents that the final assault will soon take place.

The messages told the population that their intent is not to target civilians, and that they should avoid ISIS areas. Other leaflets announcements that the final attack to free Mosul from ISIS is about to begin.

Many say that announcements of this kind show the players' hand.
They say that the bad guys will have the opportunity to run away or to burrow and hide deeper underground or even embed themselves more tightly among the innocent population.
Israel drops these messages.

It is an important moral component of combat.

Innocent civilians should not be targeted. Inevitably, some evil characters do escape but more normally, exits are limited and only innocent people are permitted to leave.

Today wars can be surgically and successfully executed.

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Saudis Want Relations w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An official Saudi lobbyist proposed closer relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, especially economic relations. The essay with this information was published in an oped essay in The Hill, an insider DC web journal.

The author of the piece is Salman al Ansari who is the founder and president of a Saudi PAC in DC called the Saudi Public Relation Affairs Committee.

Ansari suggested "rapprochement" between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He wrote that they have many common objectives and "a more solid foundation for establishing deep-rooted ties between the two countries could manifest in the context of a mutually beneficial economic partnership."

He believes that better relations between Israel and the Saudis would create "a rare, golden opportunity for Israel to participate in and help bolster the Saudi economy."

Ansari also wrote about Israel helping the Saudi deal with issues like water and technology. Better relations "will undoubtedly promote security and weaken extremism in the region."

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US Warship Attacked in Red Sea
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian backed Houthis shot 2 missiles at a US destroyer off the coast of Yemen.

The missiles missed, but it was clear that the US destroyer was the target of the attack.

A little background. The conflict in Yemen is between Shiite Houthis and Sunni Yemeni leadership. Iran is backing, arming and helping the Houthis while Saudi Arabia is supporting Sunni leadership.

The attack took place in the Red Sea. It came on the heels of last week's bombing of a UAE auxiliary ship by the Houthis. The United States has sent in support ships to make certain that the water ways stay secure.

Iran, through their Houthi proxies, are sending a message to the United States. The message is that: We, the Shiites, are in charge.

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Israelis Are Fasting on Yom Kippur
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It is the eve of Yom Kippur and Israel is preparing for the fast day.

61% of Israelis have declared that they are going to fast on Yom Kippur, 38% have said that they will not fast and 1% did not respond at all. The poll was conducted by YNET.com and by Bina, the movement for social change. They polled 500 people, with a standard deviation of 4.4%.

Fasting on Yom Kippur is a religious act. Does that mean that over 60% of the population in Israel is religiously observant? It does not. The number of religiously observant Israeli Jews is closer to 20% of the country.

The reason for the 40% disparity is simple to understand. Israel is a Jewish society. Jewish life is the foundation of the State. It's that simple. And when you understand that, you can also understand why it is that so many Israelis sit down to Shabbat dinner every Friday night.

Israel is a society where secular Israelis are not really secular. In Israel, secularism is infused with religious undertones.

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Russia Blocks Airstrike Resolution in Sec Council
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Both France and Russia had their proposals to end airstrikes in Aleppo rejected by the UN Security Council yesterday.

The French proposal, which received 11 votes in favor, was defeated by a Russian veto.

The US said that because of the failed resolution more people will die and that Russia is part of the killing process, "using tactics more commonly associated with thugs than governments."

The British UN Ambassador said - "please stop now!"

In response, the Russians presented their proposal to stop airstrikes. The Russian resolution received only 4 votes - there was no need for a veto. In order to be adopted and carry, a resolution needs a yes from 9 of the 15 members with no vetoes from any of the 5 permanent members.

The Russian proposal was not really an end to all airstrikes. They proposed using the September 8th ceasefire as the foundation of their resolution.

That would mean placing the responsibility on the local actors and permitting parties like Russia and the United States to continue to bomb at will.

Back to square one.


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Hackers May Sell to Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Eugene Kaspersky, one of the world's leading cyber security experts, just expressed one of his leading fears. He said "I am really afraid some terrorist group will pay cyber criminals to develop and deploy such weapons on their behalf."

Kaspersky said that cyber criminals often are mercenaries, providing cyber crime services to anyone who is willing to pay - anyone, even terrorists.

This is very scary. Kaspersky's comments were made in an interview he gave to ComputerWeekly.com.

Fears that a cyber weapon will be launched are real. The parties in the game will probably exercise self control. But terror groups, by definition, want to attack the most sensitive part of society and wreak havoc.

If cyber criminals are hired they will produce a devastating cyber weapon. There is no doubt that terrorists will deploy the weapon. The result will be devastating.

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Iran Warns Saudis in Straits of Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Revolutionary Guards have issued a public warning to Saudi Arabia to stay out of Iran's territorial waters.

The Saudis have begun a five day maritime war game in the area. Iran wants to make certain that the Saudis stay out of the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is interpreting the entire activity as a saber rattling.

Of course the Iranians would think that, and of course that is why Iran responded so forcefully. It is also of course critical to know that Saudi Arabia deliberately planned these maneuvers in order to get under Iran's skin.

The problem with all these actions and counter actions is that they continue to ratchet up tensions and intensity in the region - which is already explosive enough on several fronts.

The parties are already confronting one another through proxies in various areas in the Middle East including Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

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Iran Insults Germany
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

German Minister of Economic Affairs Sigmar Gabriel is visiting Iran. The visit has been heavily covered in Iran, in Germany and throughout Europe.

That having been said, imagine my shock when it was announced that Iranian speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, has cancelled his meeting with Gabriel. Remember, Germany and Gabriel have been in the forefront of leaders asserting that Iran is changing and that countries and leaders need to give Iran opportunities.

No reason was given for the cancelled meeting.

Whatever the reason - it was a huge mistake on the part of Iran.
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Abbas Condemned For Peres Funeral
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attended the funeral of Israel's former president, Shimon Peres. Abbas was one of 70 leaders from countries around the world who came to pay tribute to Peres, the Israeli statesman who had a real impact not only on the Middle East but also on their worlds.

During his eulogy, President Obama gave a shout out to Abbas for attending the funeral. Across the Palestinian world social media criticized Abbas for attending. It was vicious.

Some officials were extremely critical of Abbas on their private social media accounts. What they did is in violation of their employment agreements which do not permit public critique. And, in some cases, it is even illegal.

PA Military PR officer, Osama Mansour, was arrested for writing and criticizing Abbas on his private facebook page. Yes. Arrested for criticizing the President! In a democracy he would be censured and maybe lose his job - but not arrested. He would only be arrested if he had exposed national secrets.

The PA, as we know all too well, is not a democracy.

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Egypt Court Supports Deal w Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian court overruled a lower court and permitted an agreement which transferred back to Saudi Arabia two Islands in the Red Sea at the mouth of the Gulf of Eilat of Aqaba.

The agreement, which was signed during a visit of the King of Saudi Arabia to Cairo in April 2016, sparked the largest protests in Egypt since Al Sisi seized power in 2014. The agreement transferred Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia.

A lower court had earlier annulled the agreement. This court rejected that agreement. So the agreement now stands as it was signed.

This agreement also had both Saudi Arabia and Egypt negotiating with Israel which also controlled the island and wants to make certain the mouth of the Red Sea remains opens.

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Hit an Imam w Shoe on Live TV
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian lawyer took off his shoe and started beating an Imam on live TV.

The Imam, who is from Australia, argued that a woman's headscarf is just a cultural tradition and not a legal or a religious tradition. The lawyer insisted that that it was, instead, a religious obligation.

During the conversation the lawyer took off his shoe and stood up and started hitting the Imam. The stage crew sprinted in to separate the men.

Afterward the host apologized to the viewers and said that he should have done a better job of moderating the conversation and keeping distance between his guests.

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Nasrallah Says Wahabi is Worse than Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, told his followers that Wahabi Islam is worse than Israel. Wahabi is the sect of Islam most commonly practiced in Saudi Arabia and is most influential in directing its education and even Islamic policies

Nasrallah said: "Wahabism is more evil than Israel, especially [in] that it seeks to destroy others and eliminate whatever thing that has to do with Islam and its history."

This is more than a simple comment and a passing attack from a Shiite about Sunni Islam.

This was a cry to make certain that in the battle which is raging in Syria and Iraq the Wahabi Muslims are the enemy of Hezbollah Shiite Islam.

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Ahmadinejad Will Not Run Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone is talking and thinking about presidential elections. And not just the US presidential election.

Iran is also having elections -- they are scheduled for May.

The former and infamous Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has expressed interest in running, once again, for the presidency in Iran.

Yesterday Ahmadinejad met with the Supreme Leader and asked not only permission to run but also for his support. In Iran it is de rigueur to meet with the Supreme Leader. Without the blessing of the Grand Ayatollah no one can win the presidential election in Iran.

The Supreme Leader denied Ahmadinejad's request.

The Grand Ayatollah told Ahmadinejad that his running would divide Iran and that was unacceptable at this time.

This effectively ruins Ahmadinejad's candidacy for president, at least for the moment. May is not yet upon us. And no one knows what will happen over the next few months.

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Iran Issues Credit Cards
By Micah Halpern

Monday 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran introduced their first credit card.

There are three different categories for the credit card. A $3,000 limit, a $10,000 limit and a $15,000 limit.

Iran is easing the credit cards into their country in the hope that it will help stimulate the economy - especially the banking system. The country needs to jump start its internal purchases.

There is an important issue still at hand.

Islam rejects the concept of interest which is exactly how credit cards work. That is the reason Iran and other Islamic countries have until now shunned the credit card.

Is business trumping religion? I wonder how long credit cards will last in Iran.

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ISIS Man Convicted of Hacking
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Federal Court in Alexandria VA convicted Ardit Ferizi of hacking for ISIS.

This is the first case in which a person has been convicted of hacking and helping a terror group. Ferizi is a native of Kosovo and was arrested in Malaysia. From there he was extradited to the US to stand trial.

Ferizi stole the records of over a 100,000 people from a retailer in the US and identified 1,351 US members of the military and federal employees to be targeted by ISIS.

He knew that ISIS was going to attack them and "hit them hard." He pleaded guilty to the charges.

"Ferizi admitted to stealing the personally identifiable information of over 1,000 U.S. service members and federal employees and providing it to [ISIS] with the understanding that they would incite terrorist attacks against those individuals."

ISIS is working hard to attack the US - and attack in as many ways as possible.

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Israeli Satellite Back on Line
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Last Tuesday Israel launched spy satellite Ofek 11. This satellite launch brings the total of Israeli spy satellites to ten.

When the spy satellite was launched, it was malfunctioning. That's a problem. The satellite was unable to send pictures back to earth to be analyzed by Israeli defense intelligence teams.

But yesterday, Thursday, we got a report that the Ofek11 was online and transmitting very clear pictures.

The coming on line of the satellite allowed the Israeli teams to breathe a deep sigh of relief. It is very hard to fix a satellite from earth - but it seems that is exactly what they did.

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UK Amb Converts to Islam and Does the Hajj
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Simon Collis, the British Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, converted to Islam. This week Collis and his wife, who is of Syrian descent and is also a Muslim, performed the Hajj - the pilgrimage to Mecca.

The Saudi press has been filled with compliments for Collis.

There has been a ripple effect throughout the rest of the Arabic world.

Collis, in explaining his decision, said that he spent the past 30 years living in Muslim cultures.

Although conversion is a personal matter, Collis' conversion is clearly important to the Arabic world and they are literally holding Collis up as a hero within Islam.

On the other hand, I am certain that people in White Hall, the center of the British foreign office, are very concerned about this very public conversion and the attention it is getting in the press throughout the world.

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Russia - Egypt Tensions
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Egypt are in the midst of a serious trade crisis.

Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat and Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the world.

In August a shipment of Russian wheat arrived in Egypt contaminated with a common fungus called ergot. Egypt rejected the shipment.

Then Russia rejected Egyptian citrus fruit saying that the fruit shipment was potentially rotten.

Now a special Egyptian delegation is off to Moscow to solve the problem. But Egypt will not accept tainted wheat. There is no doubt that ergot ruins wheat, but Egypt has been filling part of Russia's fruit needs since the breakdown of Russian Turkey relations earlier this year.

Egypt needs both to get Russia's wheat and to sell them fruit. Russia is in the driver's seat in this dialogue. Is anyone surprised?

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Israeli Embassies Drill Hostage Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Riga, Latvia the Israeli embassy and the Latvians conducted an important drill. They simulated a full blown hostage situation.

This Latvian drill comes on the heels of a drill in Rumania and another one conducted in Kiev, Ukraine. There was also a drill in Greece.

Israel needs to drill because the possibility of a hostage crisis is everywhere. These locations utilized the host communities to practice so that both the host country and Israel can be as well trained as possible.

Every single Israeli embassy and consulate around the world has been regularly training and drilling so that, when the situation arises, they will be ready and able to protect themselves.

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New Muslim Poll in France
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A recent poll in France reveals two very interesting and important pieces of information about Muslims who live in France.

30% of those surveyed said that Islamic law is more important than French law and that one should follow Sharia over French law.

The next interesting point is that it has been assumed that 10% of the 64 million people in France were Muslims. This poll halves that number and puts it at 3 to 4 million Muslims in France.

The information in the poll is important to process. It is clear that Muslims in France are less and less likely to buy into the national values of freedom, equality and fraternity.

It is also important to realize that an entire educational message needs to be directed at teaching about the importance of the Republic.

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Algeria Put Israel on the Map
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A massive crisis has engulfed Algeria. It is called "mapgate."

An educational textbook identified Israel by name on a map. It did not use the word Palestine. There are calls for the minister of education to resign. The Islamic parties are livid.

The books have been recalled.

The explanation given for the choice of Israel over Palestine was that the labeling was a mistake - that there was no intention of labeling the area Israel and not Palestine. The minister blamed the publishing house. The head of the publishing house apologized for offending Algeria sensibilities. It was called "a lapse and unintentional mistake."

The publisher said that the author was on deadline and downloaded a map from the internet without checking it.

The hatred towards Israel is so great in Algeria that they are jumping through hoops to try to justify using the name Israel. Israel, in Islamic Algeria, is quite simply an unacceptable word.

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Israel Drills for Massive Attack
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Israel will conduct a national drill. It will be as realistic as possible.

The Home Front Command is enacting a drill that will simulate a multi-front simultaneous attack against Israel. There will be attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights and from Iran. 95% of the rockets will not hit residential areas but 1%-5% will definitely land and cause damage.

The most important part of the drill is getting emergency teams to the people and places in need and providing the necessary triage to get the wounded to the proper trauma centers.

These drills are so important.

Israel needs to constantly keep themselves as on top of their game as possible. At any time, on any day, the enemies of Israel can strike. Israel needs to be prepared.

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French are Cracking Down
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The French are working overtime to prevent terror. Just in the last week they prevented two terror attacks that were in the works from being carried out.

Yesterday France made public the arrest of a 15 year old. This teen had links to the notorious terrorist organizer Rachid Kassim. Kassim is one of the leaders of ISIS in France and has been linked to at least four, mass murder, terror plots since June.

The French have expanded their defensive net and are arresting people who are vulnerable to ISIS messages coming out of Syria and Iraq. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve explained that the arrest of the teen was part of a larger program to target people vulnerable to "calls to carry out killings, led by certain members of Syrian actors."

This of course means that the French have broken the terrorists' communication code because, as the Interior Minister said, they "use encrypted means to encourage increasingly young people."

There is no doubt France has picked up their game. But there is still room for improvement, especially in the areas of sharing intel and info.

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Al Qaeda Makes Appeal to Black Americans
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda just released a new video in honor of the anniversary of 9-11.

The video appealed to Black African Americans coaxing them to convert to Islam and protect themselves from the oppressive White Americana who are subjugating them. The video invokes the Black Muslim leader Malcolm X.

The video's objective is to stoke racial tensions in the US and push Black Americans to convert to Islam.

We will never know how successful this video will be - but it will certainly have some influence on some people.

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Iran's New Nuke Program
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I read an insightful piece in the Japan Times yesterday. It was About Iran's new nuclear program.

According to Japan Times, Japan is offering Iran nuclear plants. The piece also noted that Russia is breaking ground on two new nuclear power plants. In addition, Russia and China have confirmed their positions as suppliers of nuclear technology. They have signed deals for 20 more nuclear sites between the Chinese and the Russians.

It seems obvious from this piece in Japan Times that Iran is already off and running on their nuclear program.

The reality is that Russia, China and Japan are jumping in and helping Iran's re-entry into this new nuclear era by supplying and building nuclear facilities all over Iran.

No one in the Western press has even begun to uncover this data or cover these issues.

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Germany Drops Charges Against Nazis
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A court in northern Germany dropped charges against a 92 year old woman charged as an accessory in the murder of 260,000 Jews. The woman was a radio operator in Auschwitz.

Yes, she is old and suffers from ailments of age including poor vision and poor hearing.

But age should not be a reason to drop charges. Age can and should mitigate the punishment, not wave it away.

Shame on Germany for not pursuing justice and historical truth on behalf of victims of the Holocaust.

These are goals that trump the health of the defendant. It was the responsibility of the prosecution to pursue justice for those 260,000 Jewish men, women and children.

After being found guilty, the judge could have shown compassion and not imprisoned her, or the judge could have found an alternative punishment. Dropping the charges was taking the easy way out and tantamount to dropping the ball.

History and truth require prosecutors to prosecute - especially when it comes to Holocaust crimes. Especially in Germany in the year 2016.

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Palestinian Elections Delayed
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians have postponed their elections. I knew they would.

The Palestinian High Judicial Council, the PA equivalent of a Supreme Court, has ruled that the election scheduled for October 8th has been postponed. They ruled that there are too many election related questions that need evaluation before the court to proceed with the October 8th date.

Almost all the cases have to do with lists and access to the ballot. Both Hamas and Fatah are challenging one another in court saying that they have not had proper access to voters and to the registration of candidates.

Elections are rescheduled until December. But the next case won't be heard until December 21. Hamas denounced the delay. They are demanding the elections go on as planned.

Who knows what will happen.

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Iran & Saudi Arabia Trade Barbs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past two days Iran has released some damning public critique against Saudi Arabia.

It might appear as if this is standard stuff, part of the on-going Shiite/Sunni - rift but it is much more than that. And the vitriol is far more biting.

On Wednesday September 7th, on the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iranian President Hassan Rouhani publicly said that Saudi Arabia should be held accountable for the deaths of last year's pilgrims during the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Last year 2,426 people were trampled to death in Mecca. The tragedy was allowed to happen because of poor planning. 2,426 is an official number of deaths, but there are estimates that place the number at two times that.

464 of the dead pilgrims were Iranian.

Iran says that other Islamic states should punish Saudi Arabia. Rouhani is quoted as saying: "regional countries and the Islamic world should take coordinated measures to punish the government of Saudi Arabia in order to have a real Hajj."

This is just one example of the vitriol.

For their part, Saudi Arabia declared that Iranian Shiites are not Muslims. Saudi Arabia's grand mufti Sheik Abdul Aziz al Sheik, the most notable cleric in Saudi Arabia, said that Shiite Islam is not Islam and that Iranians are not believers in the basic tenets of Islam.

He called them Majuws. The Majuws were pagan fire worshippers and Zoroastrians.

He said: "We must understand they are not Muslims, for they are the descendants of Majuws, and their enmity toward Muslims, especially the Sunnis, is very old."

Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to trade shots at one another. But they are taking it up a notch. The situation is intensifying.

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New Poll in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A new poll conducted by Israel's Channel 2 News has left me surprised.

According to the poll if there were to be an election today, Yair Lapid would unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu. Lapid and his party would garner 24 seats - up from the 11 seats they received in this past election and Netanyahu and his Likud party would only get 22 seats, down from the 30 they have now.

Another big winner would be Naftali Bennet and his Bayit Hayehudi party increasing to 14 seats from 8.
Lieberman, the current defense minister would increase from 6 to 10.

The biggest news is the big losers.

Biggest is the Labor party now called Zionist Union. They will drop from 24 to 13 seats. And the Kulanu Party, headed by finance minister Moshe Kahlon, would almost disappear, dropping from 10 to 6.

Polls are never something to rely on. However, this one is very telling. Obviously Netanyahu is in a low spot in his popularity but not that bad. 22 seats to 24 seats looks more like a tie with Lapid than a dismal defeat.

The big new centers on Labor dropping even more and Bennet gaining. Israelis like Bennet because he has no guile. He is direct and honest in his vision and objectives.

The Labor Party continues to fall. It seems that the party that founded and shaped Israel for decades is having difficulty connecting with Israelis today.

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Israel Breaking Travel Records
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

September 29th is going to be the busiest day in the history of Israel's airport, Ben Gurion International. 90,000 people will go through Ben Gurion on that fateful Thursday breaking the record set this summer when 87,000 passed in a single day.

The month of September is expected to see 1.73 million passengers pass through the airport, a 6% increase over 2015, the last busiest month in history.

So why September 29? Because it is the last day people can leave or arrive in Israel before the New Year -- Rosh Hashanna, which begins early Sunday evening October 2nd.

The flights are all booked. In addition to the many tourists entering Israel, many Israelis are leaving. Some are leaving for the Holidays, flying away from the anything remotely Jewish and heading for beaches and gambling casinos.

The largest group of people leaving the country, however, is travelling specifically for religious reasons. They are headed to Ukraine, to the city of Uman where the great Rabbi Nachman of Bratzlav is buried and where tens of thousands of his disciples descend during this period.

This travel record is a huge boost for Israel. It tells Israelis that people are coming to visit, that their economy is getting a big shot in the arm and that, despite the news, people still see Israel for her true self. People see Israel as a very attractive place to visit and support.

It reinforces for Israelis the knowledge that Israel is a destination worth visiting.

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Israel & PA Sign a Mem of Understanding
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the Palestinian Authority signed an official Memorandum of Understanding yesterday.

The MOU was signed in order to coordinate postal delivery. The new process will allow direct transfer of PA mail to cross into Jordan using the Allenby Bridge which is controlled by Israel and then off throughout the world.

This process will streamline PA postal service around the world and allow for more efficient movement of the mail as it moves out of the PA. Until now Palestinian Authority mail was bottlenecked and there was great difficulty getting the mail out.

The PA and Israel have come to an agreement about a small but important issue - small, but important. It's a good start.

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Syrian Launches Tourism Campaign
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has just launched a tourism campaign entitled "Syria Always Beautiful."

It sounds crazy. I watched the video - looking at it you would never guess that Syria has been at war for 5 years. The campaign pushes the beautiful beaches and great historical sites of Syria.

In 2011, before the war began, 8.5 million tourists visited Syria every year. That would amount to about 15% of their annual economy.

Since 2011 tourism has dropped to nearly nothing.

They Syrians claim 400,000 tourists came in 2014. I find that number to be an exaggeration. No way did 400,000 people visit Syria - certainly not tourists using passports. Maybe, if you include the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Hamas fighters you might reach that number.

The irony of it all is that 400,000 is also the estimate of the number of people killed by the war in Syria.

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Hacker Gets 52 Months
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 2, 2106

I've Been Thinking:

The famous Romanian hacker Guccifer was sentenced to 52 months in a US federal prison yesterday for hacking. He claims he is the one who hacked Hillary Clinton's server and made it known that she had a private server in her NY home on which she was conducting State Department work.

In May, Guccifer plead guilty to crimes including the crime of unauthorized access to computers.

The Romanian hacker Marcel Lazar Lehel changed his name to Guccifer which, he feels, combines the style of Gucci and the light of Lucifer.

The United States asked Romania to extradite Guccifer because of the damage he had done here. He hacked into hundreds of official emails. He embarrassed the cyber security of the United States. He has been made an example of. But what of the illegal discovery?

Guccifer will spend 52 months in the federal penitentiary. Hillary Clinton is not even charged.

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Russia To Turkey - Hands Off Kurds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The spokesperson from the Russian foreign ministry made a public statement yesterday.

Russia asked Turkey not to attack any group fighting ISIS - including the Kurds. The Kurds have been the most effective fighting group against ISIS.

Several important points need to be made here. First, Turkey has been targeting and attacking the Kurds and has utilized the battle against ISIS as cover to attack them.

More importantly, Russia has reinvigorated their relationship with Turkey. Turkey is highly motivated to keep Russia happy and retain Russian support and protection. So when Russia says hands off the Kurds, despite Turkish objectives and agenda, odds are that Turkey will comply.

Once again Russia is influencing the region.

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Kerry Says Don't Cover Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry made an inane statement in a press conference the other day.

He said out right that the press should stop covering terror attacks. He actually said, not implied, that if the attacks were not covered people would not know about them. The implication was that without the coverage, people would not freak out and fear terror and that without the publicity the terrorists would not act.

The entire message by Kerry is a serious mistake.

Terror does not go up and down because the events are covered. A press blackout on terror would never stop events from being covered. In this day and age of media access, most people learn about things from social media and not from traditional news sources.

The most important issue here is that Kerry's entire perspective is based on the false assumption that if you de-emphasize the value of something/anything it becomes less important to everyone else. This is not true. It is a terrible fallacy.

Terror is important to the terrorists and to the victims and to the world that is at war confronting the terror. Saying it is not Islamic or not terror will not make it less important.

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Israel 1st To Send Aid to Italy
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not know this, but the first country to send a team of aid workers to help Italy after the terrible and devastating earthquake struck on August 24 - was Israel.

Israel has volunteer teams that are always ready to hop on a plane and help people in need. They were the first in Italy, the first in Haiti and the first aid team in Nicaragua.

The teams specialize in finding victims buried under rubble and in dealing with the Red Cross, neighbors and community. Knowledge of the victim's native language, in this case Italian, is essential.

In Italy one of the main foundations of the team is a psychologist named Sylvania Winer who came to Israel from Italy as a 20 year old.

The Israelis are indentifying bodies and informing the families. Part of Israel's job also is keeping people away from the remains and from the dead bodies that are decomposing and rife with disease.

Well done Israel, we are all proud.

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Oct Summit in Moscow BTW Pal & Is
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It is happening... almost certainly.... in October Netanyahu will meet with Abbas in Moscow under the sponsorship of Putin.

Originally, this meeting was supposed to take place in Egypt under the sponsorship of Egypt, but Abbas is wary of the Egyptian plan. It seems that he trusts Putin more than al Sisi.

We know that Netanyahu and Putin have been in contact over the past few days and now their teams should be ironing out the details.

Last week I wrote that Egypt's President al Sisi announced to a closed groups of select journalists that Putin was interested in hosting the meetings... and now they will all come together. Egypt and Saudi Arabia will also be part of the talks

Abbas has no idea what he wants - but he knows that he needs to stack the group against Israel.

What Abbas does not realize is that most everyone has lost their patience with him (not with Netanyahu) and as I read the tea leaves, the real pressure will be on the Palestinians (not the Israelis) to make serious concessions and move towards a real solution.

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Iran Attacks US Carrier- US Fires Warning Shots
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday and Thursday saw two aggressive Iranian actions against the US aircraft carrier Nitze.

On Wednesday four little boats belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard aggressively approached the Nitze. The United States fired four warning shots at the little boats and the incident ended.

And then again, on Thursday, the rubber speed boats came in "arms length" of the US aircraft carrier. This time the US carrier fired three warning shots. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessel turned and left.

The White House and the Pentagon have said only that they are concerned and that this behavior is not helpful and that they do not understand the motivation behind it.

Well, I understand the motivation very well. The Iranians are toying with United States. These actions are meant to lure the United States into an irresponsible and exaggerated response.

This is a game that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is playing.

In January the Iranians did the same thing with drones and a submarine that were close enough to nearly touch the flight deck of the US vessel.

My suggestion to the United States - don't take the bait.

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Bibi's Gov Almost Fell Last Night
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A massive crisis in Israel was averted on Thursday night.

The crisis was not about peace or economics, not about the Palestinians or security or even about ISIS. And yet, it was a crisis of such proportion that it threatened to take down the government - and nearly did. Prime Minister Netanyahu spent the whole night in dialogue and negotiations to keep his government from falling.

The crisis centered on a simple Latin expression composed of 2 words: Status Quo - which means, things should stay the same. No Changes.
Status Quo. These words are the foundation of the Netanyahu coalition. It has to do with the concept of religious life in Israel, especially the role of government.

In this case religious parties in the Netanyahu government were up in arms because work on the rail lines was taking place on Shabbat.
Two ministers sent a scathing letter to the PM saying stop or we will pull our support from your government because this is a violation of the Status Quo, which is part of our coalition contract.

Israel's ministers of transport and labor said that their contracts allowed for work on Shabbat in Tel Aviv. The religious parties said no way.

Finally, the prime minister stepped in with a Solomonic resolution.
They agreed to allow emergency and safety related work to be done on Shabbat because that work save lives. For instance, major safety improvement on the Ayalon Highway may be performed so that fewer people will die in what has become a deadly roadway. But simply laying track and other non-safety related work will be postponed until after Shabbat.

A near crisis - averted.

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What a Shock-- Its Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

George P. Bush, Jeb Bush's 40 year old son, just returned from a trip to Israel.

The trip should come as no surprise, Jeb and his uncle George W. are great supporters of Israel.

The big surprise is that George P Bush broke ranks from his father and endorsed Donald Trump, the republican nominee. Despite the awful way that Trump attacked his father, George none the less has embraced the idea that Trump needs to win the presidency.

Currently, George P. Bush is the Texas land commissioner, elected in 2014. But he may be maneuvering for a spot in the Trump administration. This trip to Israel certainly helps secure his foreign policy exposure and experience.

Machiavelli said that politics make strange bedfellows. Here we have the perfect example.

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Russia to Sponsor Israel-PA Summit
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President al Sisi informed several journalists yesterday that Russian President Putin is offering to host direct talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas.

That is a very important announcement.

Originally, Egypt was supposed to host a bi-lateral summit. Now it will be Russia who hosts. It is essential that Egypt and Saudi Arabia be present. Their presence will allow Palestinian leader Abbas the illusion of protection, comfort and security that may permit him to make concessions.

Of course, the biggest questions is where the United States will be during the summit. They will unquestionably be invited - but this time around they will have to take a back seat.

This is Russia's party and the co-hosts are Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

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Iran's Weapons Industry
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran now has an advanced weapons industry.

Iran's motivation in creating this industry was the sanctions that the West and the world imposed on them. So far, their results have been very impressive. Iran is making sophisticated weapons, on its own.

Here's an example:

The Russian S-300 rocket system has been caught in the sanctions debate. And even though Iran signed a deal with the P5+1 last year, the S-300 has not actually been delivered.

Russia has been pressured by Israel and the United States not to send the entire S-300 order.

So, since 2010, Iran has been developing an alternative to the S-300. The Iranians say that they have successfully developed the Bavar-373. We are told that they tested the rocket and that Iranian President Rouhani actually toured and watched the launching of the new weapon.

Also on the agenda for release almost immediately is Iran's first turbo jet engine.

This info comes to us courtesy of Iran, so some skepticism is valid. Iranians are masters of deception and have, in the past, fictionalized their technical weapons development and prowess.

We just have to wait and see what the real story is this time.


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Turkey Confiscates Accounts of Rebels
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is confiscating the money, property and assets of anyone they feel was involved in the July coup.

Included in the group of confiscated properties are the schools and other charities of self-exiled Turkish cleric leader Gullen who lives in a complex in Rural PA.

In addition, two Fortune 500 companies that are in Turkey have also been impacted. Their assets were taken and their company offices were closed.

The Turks will continue to crack down on everyone they think was involved in the coup.

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More Info About Egypt's Refusal to Shake Hands
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

More details are coming out about that judo match between Israel and Egypt, the match in which the Egyptian refused to shake the hand of the Israeli.

Now it has been made public that Egyptian athletes have refused to ride in elevators with Israelis.

Israeli Ori Sasson has described the evil murderous looks that Egyptian Shahabi gave him before their judo match. He reports that as they began the match, Egyptian Shehabi said "Alahu Akhbar." Sasson said he could only think of the declarations make before a terror attack.

After the incident the Olympic Committee summoned the Egyptian. Shehabi was disciplined him and sent back to Egypt.

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Hamas Threatens PA on Elections
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas sent out a scathing ultimatum to the Palestinian Authority yesterday.

Hamas said that if the PA doesn’t stop arresting their people in the West Bank --- Hamas will boycott the upcoming local elections.

Actually, many of the Hamas leaders that the Palestinian Authority is arresting in the West Bank are election organizers who are motivating people to vote for Hamas over Fatah.

Fatah might actually want Hamas to boycott the local elections - it would give Fatah a hands down victory over Hamas.

The problem is that if Hamas is absent from the election, it would call into question Fatah's true popularity and give Hamas the opportunity to delegitimize the entire election.

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All Maps Are Political
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

All maps are political. And Google Maps is in the middle of a huge conflict over their maps.

Over the past few weeks Google has been accused of removing Palestine from their maps. The company has responded by saying that they never did have Palestine as a separate country. Some voices are saying that Google should show Israel's occupation of Palestine.

The argument is not unique to Israel and Palestine.

There are similar arguments about Crimea. The argument is whether Google maps should show Crimea as part of Ukraine or, now that it is under Russian control, should they show Crimea as part of Russia.

And what about the Kurds who control areas in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Should they show the Kurdish controlled areas? And what about ISIS controlled regions? Should people know which areas are under the control of ISIS? But then again, does showing all that automatically signify acceptance of their right to control the area?

Goggle is in a difficult position. We need their maps - and we want to be up-to-date in terms of geographical shifts and changes in territory.

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Iran Lost 400 Guards In Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's actions are often shrouded in deep secrets - even mystery.

The Iranians do not telegraph their actions. Often they become reliable sources of information about what others are doing, such as the United States. And Iran was the source of the video and the information about the $400 million in cash that the White House delivered stealthily one night, the same night that four American hostages were released by Iran.

One of the mysteries that has plagued those of us who have been analyzing Iran is how large their force in Syria and Iraq really is.

On Saturday, Iran's semi-official news agency, ILNA, reported that 400 families were being honored because they were the parents of sons who had died in Syria as fighters for the Revolutionary Guard. Yes, 400 dead in Syria.

400 dead Revolutionary Guards is a huge number. We have be shown, here and there, memorial photos of Guards killed in Syria - but we never knew how many of them there were. We also heard from other sources that the Iranians were there. We even had a vehicle filled with six Revolutionary Guards, including a general, that Israel killed in an airstrike as they were touring the Golan Heights.

Iran has made a huge investment in Syria and we always assumed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards were all over Syria attacking ISIS and Al Qaeda. Now we know for sure.

This is a very important admission and acceptance.


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Christians Protest in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Christians protested in Cairo on the steps of the national court house. They were demanding equal rights and equal protection.

Protests are virtually unheard of today in Egypt. New anti-protest laws are so strict that they almost certainly guarantee conviction and prison, not to mention injury caused by the police in a crackdown.

Christians number about 10 million in Egypt, which means that they are about 10% of the population. Almost universally, they supported al Sisi in his overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood's president Morsi.

Under Morsi the Christian community was in the cross hairs. They expected improvement under al Sisi but they have not felt any significant change. Egypt's Christians want equality under the law. And they want protection from abuse.

Their demands are reasonable.

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Israel Ordered to Pay Iran $1.1 Bill
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The World Court has ordered Israel to pay Iran $1.1 billion plus interest and lawyer's fees.

The decision came about as the result of an oil company created jointly by Israel and Iran in 1968. The company was created after the 1967 War during which Egypt closed the Suez Canal. Israel needed to get oil and so they created a corporation with Iran who provided the oil.

But then, eleven years later, after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, it all fell apart. And when it fell apart Israel took control of the corporation.

Now that the court has ruled (although the ruling is dated June 27) it is unlikely that Israel will pay up.

It is against Israeli law to send any money or support to Iran.
Israel cannot and will not hand over any money to Iran.

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US Hits ISIS Hard
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has confirmed that they have killed 300 ISIS fighters - that is 1/4 of their fighters - including much of ISIS leadership in Afghanistan. Yes, in Afghanistan.

We think of ISIS in Iraq and in Syria and then in Libya and Yemen. But ISIS is now setting up shop in Afghanistan. And ISIS needs to be stopped.

General John Nicolson, US head of the region, confirmed the kills. He told reporters: "They killed a number of top leaders of the organization and up to 300 of their fighters".

"Obviously it's difficult to get an exact count, but what this amounts to is about 25% of the organization at least, and so this represents a severe setback for them."

This is a very important step in checking ISIS as they attempt to expand into new regions. Without this check ISIS would be free to take over Afghanistan.


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Iran Bans Pokemon Go
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran joins the nations that are banning Pokemon Go.
They claim that the game is a security risk and a tool of foreign spy agencies.

Niantic, the company that makes Pokemon, never asked for permission to launch in Iran. If they had, Niantic would have had to submit an application to the Supreme Council on Cyberspace. This group was set up by the Ayatollah in 2012 in order to try to keep a handle on the cyber world inside Iran.

The Council is also responsible for a cyber defense and attack infrastructure in Iran.

Iran is one of the top 5 cyber tech countries in the world today. Obviously, the Council would have rejected Pokemon Go. But just as obviously, Pokemon Go is being played in Iran anyway. I have seen pictures and videos of Iranian teens in public parks running after those little guys.


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Charity Aided Hamas- Countries Stop $
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

World Vision was a credible Christian charity. It was respected all over the world and it raised millions of dollars for its various causes.

The NYT scooped a story about how World Vision in Gaza was giving its charity to Hamas.

The Israelis supported the claim by saying that they had the head of World Vision in custody since June and he confessed to siphoning millions - almost all the money allocated to Gaza - and giving it to Hamas. He actually said that he infiltrated the organization with that plan in mind from the very beginning.

Now a few days later, Australia has suspended all gifts to World Vision. The Australian government gives about $4 million a year to World Vision. Germany, also, has stopped their donation dollars to World Vision. Israel is providing the evidence to any and every country interested.

Israel has also said that countries and individuals must be particularly careful about giving to organizations in Gaza. The chances of it going to Hamas are extremely high.

According to the Israeli briefing report the monies did not go to Hamas charities or their social service infrastructure. The monies from World Vision went to the military wing of Hamas and to the digging of tunnels.

That means individual Western donors and Western countries were contributing to terror infrastructure. It means that giving to World Vision was not just fraud but a violation of the anti-terror funding laws of these countries. That is a very serious violation.


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IDF Saves Syrians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF released a video of its medical teams going into Syria to save Syrians who were badly injured in bombings. Two of the wounded were very young children with burns all over their bodies.

Seven medical teams went into Syria in the dead of night. This was many more than are even assigned to the special medical group designated to stealthily save Syrians. These medical teams were borrowed from the armored corps that was involved on a drill nearby in the Galil. The teams included high ranking medical personnel that had with them a huge amount of equipment to help the injured.

So dramatic were the injuries that the team called a helicopter to airlift the Syrian patients out of the area. This was highly risky and very unusual --- in an already unusual situation.

The most amazing part of the story was watching an uninjured elderly women walk alongside the gurneys to the helicopter. The children's grandmother was with them as they were dying and she joined them in Israel.

Here is a link to the video:
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4838412,00.html


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Egypt Kills ISIS Leader
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The head of ISIS in Sinai was killed in an air raid conducted by the Egyptian military.

The Egyptian air force launched an attack against an ISIS weapons depot. One of the additional reasons for the strike was that according to intelligence reports they had received, in addition to the weapons numerous ISIS leaders and fighters were present at the depot.

So the strike was launched. 45 ISIS members were killed and the entire cache of weapons was destroyed.

Among the dead is said to be Abu Dua al Ansari, the head of ISIS in the Sinai. Ansari was responsible for the planning and execution of the horrific terror attack that blew up the Russia charter flight murdering all 224 people aboard the airliner.

There has been no confirmation of Ansari's death from anyone in the Sinai. No one - from ISIS to the Bedouins of Sinai have said anything about the attack or the death.

This is par for the course.


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Iranian Leader Says Saudis are Traitors
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei has gone on record saying that the average Iranian has not felt any positive effect from the six month old nuclear agreement between Iran and the Western world.

The Ayatollah also accused Saudi leadership of committing treason. He was referring to a group of Saudi businessmen and a former Saudi general who recently went to Israel for a long visit and have been speaking about the experience and about how Israel is not at all what it is assumed to be by the general public and by the media.

Khamenei was livid with the Saudis. He said: "This job by Saudis is a great sin and treason but in this big wrongdoing, Americans have played a role since the Saudi government is possessed by the U.S. government while following and listening to Washington."

When the Supreme Leader speaks, the Arab world listens.

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Pope is Wrong on ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope has got ISIS and Islam all wrong. In fact, his comments actually help ISIS gain more support.

After the brutal murder of a Catholic priest in Normandy, the Pope and his spokesmen did not mention Islam. His Holiness does not believe that Islam is the issue.

Yesterday the Pope said: "It's not right to identify Islam with violence. It's not right and it's not true." He said: "I believe that in every religion there is always a little fundamentalist group."
And then he concluded "I know how they think, they are looking for peace."

Unfortunately, the Pope does not know how ISIS works. He is so very far off from understanding them.

The Pope believes that ISIS "presents itself with a violent identity card, but that's not Islam." He is wrong - for ISIS that is Islam.


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ISIS Terror in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Since June 8 there has been an ISIS inspired terror attack every 84 hours in cities outside the war zones of Iraq, Syria, Sinai, Egypt and Libya. This statistic comes to us via IntelCenter a group that tracks terrorism.

According to IntelCenter over half of those attacks were outside major cities in what would be considered low risk areas. This is counter-intuitive - but it is also part of the ISIS plan.

Today Europe is flatfooted in dealing with ISIS terror. And at the same time, ISIS terror is increasing in its intensity. We will see many more attacks before the summer ends. ISIS knows that their attacks are working.

Europe is stunned. They have no idea how to respond to ISIS and now, in addition to the deaths and the fear, they are being hit in the pocket book, too.

Tourism in all the traditional European tourist sites has plummeted. Even fellow Europeans are not travelling within Europe. Certainly Americans are not interested in visiting traditional European centers of tourism.

The loss - both financial and psychological, is devastating.

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Hezbollah Tatoos & Islam
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I just read an eye opening essay about Hezbollah supporters and fighters tattooing themselves with Shiite images and even tattooing themselves with pictures of Shiite leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

Most Muslim authorities forbid permanent tattoos. Henna and non-permanent body art is ok according to all Islamic authorities.

The Koran does not mention tattoos but the Hadith which is the oral teachings of Mohammed does. This Hadith, recorded by Bukhari, reads: "It was narrated that Abu Juhayfah (may Allah be pleased with him) said: "The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) cursed the one who does tattoos, and the one who has a tattoo done."

That is pretty clear.

No reason is given for the prohibition, so Muslim thinkers can only speculate as to the motivation behind it. The answers are obvious. Tattooing mutilates Allah's original creation. It was a tradition of the pagans. It covers the natural body.

Getting tattoos, even Shiite tattoos with quotes from the Koran or pictures of Mohammed's sword or similar depictions are not in line with majority Islamic tradition.

But the people being tattooed do not seem to care.

This may change, however, when they are killed by other Muslims because of their tattoos and because they are Shiites.


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New Elections Slated in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced that next year on May 19th they will conduct presidential elections. The decision was made by the Iranian Guardian Council.

President Rouhani is expected to run for election. If he does not run and win, he will be the first president in the history of Iran since the 1979 not to win a second term.

The real power in this election will not be the voice of the people. The real power will come from the Supreme Leader, The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

We do not yet know who the other candidates will be. But we do know that that there has been serious tension between The Grand Ayatollah and the current president. May 19, 2017 will be the perfect time for the Ayatollah to remove Rouhani from office and from power.

But removing Rouhani from the presidency could cause a huge loss of confidence in Iran. It could be devastating for the future of Iran.

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ISIS Murders in a Church
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS terror strikes Normandy in northern France. Two terrorists enter a Catholic church and slit the throat of an 85 year old priest. The terrorist then tape themselves declaring their goals and their motives.

One of the terrorists was on a watch list and was outfitted with an electronic ankle bracelet to monitor him activities. He was, however, permitted to remove it for several hours each morning. And indeed the murder took place at 9:30 AM. His mother turned in her son saying that he had become an extremist.

The West was shocked by the murder.

This murder in a church is exactly what ISIS wants. It proves ISIS' superiority and demonstrates the inferiority of Christianity. ISIS wants to attack the essence of Western and Christian values and traditions.

ISIS is trying to attack the very heart of the West. Going into a church is part of that plan. For ISIS it is even more important than attacks against Shiite mosques or pilgrimages.

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Iran Destroys 1 Mill STV Sat Dishes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran destroyed 100,000 private satellite dishes yesterday in its capital Teheran. All the satellite dishes were handed over by their owners in order to avoid a stiff $2800 fine for having the TV dish.

The general in charge of destroying the satellite dishes, General Reza Neghdi, said that these dishes "deviate morality and culture." They are un-Islamic. They "increase divorce, addiction and insecurity in society."

He said: "Most of these satellite channels not only weaken the foundation of families but also cause disruptions in children's education and children who are under the influence of satellite have improper behavior."

Iran leadership as well as Iranian citizens know that there is a vast world of ideas out there. Their leadership wants to shut out that influence. But people in Iran yearn for that which their leaders shut out - information and news.

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Saudi Delegation Visits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Saudi businessmen and academics wrapped up a three-day visit to Israel. The delegation was led by former high ranking Saudi general Anwar Eshki.

The delegation met with high level Israeli diplomats.

The objective of this visit was to resurrect the 2002 Saudi- Arab peace initiative. The essence of the initiative was land for peace wherein Israel was to give the Palestinians land taken during the 1967 Six Day War. In exchange for the resolution, the Arab world would normalize relations with Israel.

The messages we are receiving are that the meeting was very successful. More important, however, is the message that comes with that success: Creating a solution to the Palestinian question is a priority for moving ahead on the diplomatic front.

This was not General Eshki's first meeting with Israelis. Last year he met with Dore Gold, director general of Israel's foreign ministry. They met in the United States.

The photo-op for this meeting took place at the history-infused King David Hotel in Jerusalem.

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Abbas' Brother Dies
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is in Qatar. He went to Qatar from Paris.

Abbas went to Qatar to bury his brother Omar who just died from cancer.

Omar Abbas, also known Abu Loway, died at the age of 76. I have discussed his cancer and his medical care in the past. Abbas' brother received regular cancer treatments at Asuta, a private hospital in Tel Aviv.

Of course they have hospitals in Qatar, world class hospitals. But they are not even close to providing the level of quality of Israel's hospitals. They were not good enough for the brother of the Palestinian president.

Despite all the myths and all the lies, Palestinians get the best medical treatment in the world - in Israeli hospitals.

Arab news outlets never covered the fact that Omar Abbas was treated in an Israeli hospital. It does not fit their narrative. In their narrative all of Israel and all Israelis are evil.

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Erdogan:Outside Countries Sponsored Failed Coup
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 21, 2016 I’ve Been Thinking:

Turkish President Erdogan gave an interview to al Jazeera. In the interview Erdogan said that foreign governments had a hand in the failed coup in Turkey last week.

The Turkish president did not mention any governments by name but he said he knows that this is very clear.

I can go through the list of countries who were happy about the attempted coup and crushed to discover that the coup failed.

These are countries in the Middle East and in Europe and even in the Americas.

It should be very clear that Erdogan knows who his enemies are and who are his friends.

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Bibi Send Message to Abbas Via Youtube
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Netanyahu posted a YouTube video directed at Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

On his video, Netanyahu spoke directly to Abbas saying: "President Abbas, over the past several years, you refused to meet me and sit down and negotiate peace, I hope you'll hear this message."

Netanyahu's message to Abbas was, let's talk and make peace - we owe it to the future. He said the time has come to stop supporting terror and that he needs to put an end to the statements of his underlings who repeatedly make comments supporting terror attacks.

Finally, Netanyahu asked Abbas to stop paying premiums to the families of terrorists. That, according to Netanyahu, only incentivizes terrorism.

Now we wait and see if Abbas responds to the Netanyahu message.

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Russian Delivers S-300 Part to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian news sources have confirmed that Russia is sending them components of the S-300 missile system and that a significant segment arrived yesterday.

The news report said that the S-300s components will be delivered in their entirety by the end of the year.

The S-300 is a surface-to-air system. It is not the best Russia, has but it will definitely improve Iran's ability to respond to incoming missiles and aircraft.
Israel has voiced their disapproval over the deal, but they have not raised a huge stink - probably because the old S-300 has serious weaknesses and can be gamed. In other words, Israel has a defense against it.

The Russians said that they would slow down the delivery - which they have done. But eventually they must live up to their obligations and contracts with Iran. This agreement is over a decade old.

The most troubling part of the arrival of the S-300 components is that this marks another new stage, a period in which Russia and Iran are engaging in important weapons trade.

Russia has a difficult time saying "no" when it comes to the money and influence side of the weapons market.

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Syrian Rebels Fear Loss is Near
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian rebels are taking the US to task. They are publicly saying that the US is not calling Russia out on their massive violations.

The Russians are supporting Assad and in the process they are perpetrating war crimes. Basma Kodmani, the spokeswoman for the resistance, has been very vocal about the Russians and the United States. "What we lack here is a serious reaction to Russian behavior on the ground" she said.

Kodmani is a member of the main opposition High Negotiations Committee.

All this comes as the resistance is watching the noose tighten around Aleppo. Assad, his allies and Russia are closing in on the resistance stronghold. There is no doubt that the High Negotiations Committee and all the those fighting against Assad fear that if Aleppo falls to Assad the entire battle to oust Assad will be lost.

That is why Kodmani is making such strong statements and accusations against the US. She needs the United States to act against Russia. She is trying, in her own way, to guilt them into it.

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France: 17 Unidentified Victims
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

French officials still have not identified 16 of the dead and one of the wounded from the devastating Islamic terror that rocked Nice.

The numbers of dead and wounded are mind blowing. One single person, in a truck, killed 84 men, women and children and wounded 202 more people in a low tech attack using the simplest of weapons. All that was required was a terrorist to drive a truck into a crowd and murder as many holiday revelers as he could until he, himself, was killed.

The number of unidentified victims is a telling statistic.

Most of the 16 unidentified bodies, people with no discernible i.d. on their person, were probably tourists or individuals out on their own to enjoy the evening - and no one has yet to notice that they were in Nice and that they are missing. The unidentified injured victims have wounds that do not allow them to aid in their own identification.

The lives of the 202 injured are forever changed. The lives if families and friends of all the 84 murdered have all been irrevocably altered.

The terrorist successfully struck at the heart of France and the West. For ISIS this is another huge victory. Their web sites claim that this style of attack is an effective tool - a model that should be duplicated throughout the West against the enemies of Islam.

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Why Bastille Day
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Over 80 dead and hundreds wounded on Bastille Day in Nice, Southern France.

Clearly, an act of terror.

The symbol of the day is so important - it cannot be ignored. The prison, the Bastille, was stormed on July 14, 1789. The prisoners inside the Bastille were freed. That act became the symbol of the French Revolution which, in turn, triggered the birth of the modern state in which individual rights and freedoms are the hallmark of modern society.

Bastille Day is a symbol even more powerful than July 4th. It is the foundation of the revolution that heralded the assumption of all future modern states that every individual is created equal.

For the Islamic terrorist the ideas of equality and freedom are the antithesis of everything they believe in. Every citizen of France understands the deep significance of Bastille Day. They have internalized the knowledge that all the terror that has been targeted at France rises out of what France represents and what it demands.

France demands freedom and equality. France demands that all those who enter their country adhere to the principles of freedom and equality.

That is an idea that extremist Muslims, that Muslim terrorists, cannot abide.

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England's New Foreign Secretary
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The new prime minister of England has appointed Boris Johnson as her foreign secretary.

Johnson served two terms as Mayor of London and has a huge amount of foreign affairs experience as a politician, a news editor and a political columnist.

Concerning Israel and the Middle East, Johnson has proclaimed himself a proud Zionist who supports Israel's right to exist even if he disagrees with some of her policies.

When he visited Israel he announced that the Boycott Israel Movement was a group of "Lefty Academics." As a result of that comment many of Johnson's meetings with Palestinians in the West Bank were cancelled.

This is a very good appointment. Johnson will serve well and he will be an honest friend. Most importantly, when he disagrees with policies, he will disagree with respect and his style tends not to be patronizing.

This may be the beginning of a new era of Israeli // British relations.

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Jews Say NO to Abbas Invite
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, has invited a group of Israeli and Jewish leaders from Arab lands to meet with him.

The group, which is made up of seventy leaders from The World Federation of Moroccan Jewry, has already met with Abbas several times. Their meetings have been very productive and have helped to move issues and dialogues along.

This time, however, the group rejected the invitation from Abbas.

The leader of the group, Sam BenShitrit, said that they would not meet with Abbas until the Palestinian Authority president publicly condemned the recent stabbing of Hallel Jaffa - the 13 year old Israeli girl stabbed to death by a Palestinian intruder while in her bed.

BenShitrit also pointed out that Abbas refused to meet with Israeli President Rivlin in Europe at the EU meeting.

And finally, BenShitrit explained that after their last meeting with the PA president he wrote to Israeli PM Netanyahu paving the road for face to face with Abbas, but Abbas still has not pursued that meeting.

BenShitrit feels that it is not useful to continue meeting with the head of the PA when Abbas does not follow through with their previous agreements.


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Terrorist Prisoners Watch Soccer
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Eurocup2016 was played on Sunday night. It was watched all across the Middle East. Like the World Cup, or Mondial as it is called, hundreds of millions of people tune in to watch the game.

For the purpose of our discussion, it does not matter who won or lost. It is about watching the game.

What matters is that the Supreme Court of Israel decided that Hamas prisoners convicted of mass murder and terrorism were entitled to watch the game.

Families of the victims of the crimes perpetrated by these prisoners petitioned the Court to disallow them the pleasure of taking in the game.

But the Court ruled in favor of the prisoners.

Call me crazy, but I don't believe that pleasures like this should be rights --- they should be rewards for cooperation, insight and information.

Watching the Eurocup could have been used an incentive to leverage information from prisoners. Now watching soccer has become a right.

What's next?! What a missed opportunity.

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Mideast Countries Issue Travel Warnings on US
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Two Middle East countries have issues travel alerts about the United States. Add to that The Bahamas which also said that their citizens should exercise judgment and avoid protests and any interaction with police while in the United States.

The United Arab Emirates embassy in Washington DC has issued a warning that their citizens should stay away from big city protests. In addition, the government of Bahrain tweeted that their citizens should maintain distance from protests in the US.

There is no real threat to citizens in the United States - especially relative to the dangers of the Middle East. The United States is safe for Americans and for tourists.

The subtext of the warnings these countries are releasing is that the Black Lives Matter movement and their protests are likely to be violent and police are on edge and they may react which could lead to more deaths.

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Hackers and Cyber Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hackers are starting to ask questions about cyber terror.

Hacktivism, the online hacker journal, published an essay saying that new definitions of cyber terror are important and cyber attacks really do not meet the current criteria.

The current definition, according to the journal, reads:
"An act must be illegal and violent or endanger human life, be coercive or intimidating, and occur in whichever jurisdiction fits. The code does not say that terrorism must meet one or all, but "means activities with these three characteristics." Most acts of hacktivism only tick one or two of these boxes, if at all."

They are correct.

Most cyber hacks are illegal - but not terror.

Most cyber hacks are denial of service when they flood a website and bring it down. That makes for a minor inconvenience and an illegal act, but hardly an act of terror.

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Israel Creating Laws Against Facebook
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is advancing legislation to limit hate speech on Facebook and other social media. They want to scrub it.

Israeli Minister of Public Security Gilad Erdan said yesterday:

"Some of the victims' blood is on Zuckerberg's hands."

"Facebook has turned into a monster. The younger generation in the Palestinian Authority runs its entire discourse of incitement and lies and finally goes out to commit murderous acts on Facebook's platform."

There is much support for these laws - and not just by Israelis.

The evidence seems pretty clear that there are direct links between terrorists, their Facebook accounts and the incitement they are exposed to.

Normally we would say that people still have the ability to choose between good and evil, that just because, for example, someone watches horror movies they are not turned into a potential mass murderer.

But, in defiance of all logic, these kids are different. For some reason, these young Palestinian kids who go out and become terrorists seem to be different from the norm.

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Davos Report: Israel Top in Tech
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The World Economic Forum, also known as Davos, has released a report on Global Information and Technology.

The report puts Israel in the top group of nations that benefit from technology and digital innovations. The report actually said that it is private individuals who are driving the progress - not government or business

In order, the United States, Singapore, Finland, The Netherlands, Sweden Switzerland and Israel are the countries that gain the most from technological innovation.

The most troubling part of the report is that the gap between those gaining from technology and those not gaining is growing very quickly.

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Hackers Attack Olympics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Olympics are scheduled for this August, this summer.

It looks like the hacker community is talking a lot about the Olympics, too. These hackers are not out to wreak havoc and terror on the Olympics, these hackers are selling knock off tickets and other memorabilia.

Hackers are luring people into honey traps by offering travel packages that include flights, hotels and tickets to the games ... they are all fake.

This is the classic hacker model. Most black hat hackers are after the quick buck. They almost always go for the simple easy buck.

Most hackers are petty thieves and con artists - not evil masterminds. They lead people down a path, deceive them and simply steal from them by entrancing them with the excitement of the con.

The hacker community is talking about their plans in great detail.

Caveat Emptor. Buyer beware!

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ISIS Is Back in Full Force
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS plans to end Ramadan with a blast.

Over the past few days ISIS has orchestrated terrible attacks in Bangladesh, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The attacks have all been timed to coincide with the final days of Ramadan - a three day festival called Eid el Fidr which marks the conclusion of the month long period of introspection.

Yesterday three attacks took place simultaneously in Saudi Arabia. The day before a car bomb blew up in Iraq killing over 200 people. The intentions are obvious, the attacks were devastating.

The targets have been Shiite and Sunni and even Western diplomats.

ISIS has made it clear that they are attacking across the board. No established group is safe. ISIS may be Sunni Muslims, but they are also attacking Sunnis - Sunnis who do not specifically subscribe to ISIS' understanding of Sunni Islam.

In the world ISIS occupies, if you subscribe to a more liberal form of Islam you're a heretic and you can be killed.

Sadly, it does not look as if these attacks will die down after Ramadan. A new momentum has been created and we must watch and determine how powerful this surge of ISIS violence and terror becomes.

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Turkish Ship Arrives in Israel Gaza Aid
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The first Turkish ship carrying aid and journalists to Gaza has arrived in Ashdod port in Israel.

This arrival of the ship comes as a result of the agreement that was signed between Turkey and Israel as they normalized diplomatic relations only last week. The aid must come through Ashdod and then it can be transferred to Gaza over land.

This ship was carrying medicine, food and toys.

Taken together with yesterday's public criticism of the original flotilla by Turkish leader Erdogan, it seems as though a new era of interaction between the two nations has begun.

There are those in Israel who are against the transfer of aid to Gaza.

Their reasoning is that Hamas has still not given Israel any information about the bodies of Israelis soldiers or the whereabouts of two Israeli who stumbled into Gaza. They argue giving aid is unilateral and Israel gets nothing for giving the aid.

The argument continues. If Hamas has either info on the bodies or on the kidnapped boys, they should inform Israel and then and only then should they receive aid - any aid, even aid from Turkey.

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Bibi on Historic Africa Trip
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will begin a four country African visit tomorrow.

Netanyahu will start his trip in Uganda on July 4th, the day that marks the 40th anniversary of the heroic rescue in Entebbe where, in 1976, his brother Yoni was killed while leading the historic and dazzling mission.

This is the first time an Israeli prime minister will have visited the sub-Saharan Africa region in over three decades. Israel has a long history of aid and involvement in Africa, especially dealing with technology, water and agriculture. Most of those interactions have been behind the scenes and kept very quiet.

Israel is now ready to open a new era in their relationship with that region of the world. Part of Israel's objective is to challenge ISIS and radical Islam.

Africa is the future - and Israel needs to have a presence.
So over the next few days Prime Minister Netanyahu will visit Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya and Ethiopia. A truly historic mission of his own.

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Assad Says West is Helping Him
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Reuters has released a sneak preview of an interview with Syrian leader Bashar Assad scheduled to be broadcast on Friday on Australia's SBS news channel.

The quotes are very damning -- damning of Western countries.

Assad is quoted as saying that Western countries condemn his government politically but then send security advisers to help fight ISIS and al Qaeda. He also gave a big dig to the United States saying that Western countries simply mimic what the US wants them to say.

One of the important revelations in this interview is that Assad tells the Australian media that their country, Australia, is among those countries who show their duplicity.

"They attack us politically and then they send officials to deal with us under the table, especially the security, including your (the Australian) government."

"They don't want to upset the United States. Actually most of the
Western officials, they only repeat what the United States want them to say. This is the reality."

It is befitting that Assad sees the world through his own unique lens - before becoming a ruthless dictator, he was, after all, a card carrying MD and licensed eye doctor.

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Iran Favors Brexit
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is elated about the Brexit vote.

The Iranians claim that they believe in democratic voting and so they supported the vote about leaving the EU. The Foreign Ministry statement read "As a democratic establishment, the Islamic Republic of Iran respects the British people’s vote on leaving the European Union, and considers that as being in line with the will of majority of that country’s people to adopt their own foreign policy."

It sounds good, but it is truly irrelevant.

The real reason Iran supports Brexit is because the United States was in support of remaining.

In addition, the Iranians perceive England to be a huge trading partner and they want to expand their trade with Iran.

Every country has an agenda. Iran is no exception.

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Germany to Lease Israeli Killer Drones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will lease 5 drones to Germany in a deal worth 600 million Euros.
There are two fascinating components to this deal. The first is that Germany did not lease or buy the US drones, but chose Israel instead. After all, the US Predator and Raptor drones are part of the United State’s highly developed weapons cache.

Israel has a wide range of drones and they are the leaders in technology in the field. The Germans are leasing the Eitan which is called the Heron TP.
It is huge, weighing over 5 tons. Its wingspan is 86 ft and it is 43 ft long. The Eitan can carry an additional 4000 lbs of equipment. (bombs).

And that leads to the second very interesting dimension to this deal. The
Germans said that the Heron can carry and shoot missiles, rockets and bombs. The Germans used older versions of these drones to attack in Afghanistan.

The Germans were revealing a well hidden secret
Israel has never admitted that they make drones that can be armed with weapons. The Germans just disclosed that very important piece of information.

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US May Buy Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The US is considering buying the short range interceptor missile, the famous Iron Dome, from Israel.

The idea is to use the Iron Dome in Europe to protect against Russian missiles that could attack European cities. The US already has anti missile batteries in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia has interpreted this as a major threat against them and an increased US direct involvement in Central and Eastern Europe.,

US Major-General Glenn Bramhall of the US Army's Air and Missile Defense Command just visited Israel and discussed details of buying the Iron Dome or major segments of it.

Israel developed the Iron Dome with the financial help of the United States.

There were many conditions placed on the money. Israel cannot sell it to just anyone. But they can certainly sell it to the United States.
Interestingly, there have not been many potential buyers for the missile despite it 90% success rate against the rockets shot at Israel from Gaza.

The original Iron Dome was limited to a range of only 3 - 43 miles. But with improvements that expand its range to 95 miles this short range interceptor now encroaches into the range of a mid range interceptor allowing for a near total defense shield.

The United States is thinking critically and strategically with this military purchase.

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The Pope & Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Pope Francis just finished a visit to Armenia and, as expected, he ruffled Turkey's feathers.

When the Pope arrived he made a clear declaration condemning the Turkish- led Armenian Genocide as a planned attempt to murder Armenians.

In response the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey, Nerettin Canikli, called the Pope’s declaration "greatly unfortunate." He said that the Pope was showing a bias that resembled "the mentality of the Crusades."
Last year Pope Francis made a similar statement condemning the Armenian Genocide which resulted in the deaths of 1.5 million Armenians. As a result Turkey withdrew its ambassador from the Holy See for ten months, only now returning to their post in Rome. The Turks accused the Pope of spreading lies.

The Turkish claim is that people died on both sides and that it was the middle of WWI just as the Ottoman Empire was breaking down. They also simply say that the number 1.5 is a huge exaggeration.

Turkey is in the midst of trying to resurrect diplomatic relations with Israel. The day before the preliminary deal was signed Turkey hosted a formal meeting with the head of Hamas.

Turkey appears to have a warped sense of the code of conduct for the art of diplomacy and they just don't know how to get along with others.

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Muslims Sworn into IDF
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Muslim soldiers were recently sworn in to the IDF.

Most of the soldiers are Bedouins. They were sworn into the Desert Corp. They will probably be trackers, a task that Bedouins have traditionally excelled in for decades.

These Muslim soldiers swore their allegiance to defend the State of Israel. They each received a weapon and a Koran.

The ceremony took place at the Memorial for Fallen Bedouin Soldiers in the Negev Desert in the southern part of Israel.

Israel wants and needs Bedouin input in the IDF and in Israel society.

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New ISIS Hit List
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS just released a new hit list of 8318 people from around the world and almost all 8000+ were from the US.

The United Cyber Caliphate put the list on line. The list includes names, addresses, and email addresses belonging to 8,318 people.

Names come from the United States, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Brazil, China, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, New Zealand, South Korea, Sweden, Trinidad, and Tobago. On Vocativ reports of the 7,848 Americans listed, 1,445 had addresses in California, 643 in Florida, 341 in Washington, 333 in Texas, 331 in Illinois, and 290 in New York.

An interesting point is the Vocativ also found that 4000 names and details were found on an earlier hit list from Linkedin created in 1999.
This new ISIS list was unique in its own way. While it was a list of enemies - earlier lists were actually entitled hit lists. This list was not.

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Israel & Turkey to Mend Relations
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Turkey will normalize relations this weekend. The information was leaked yesterday. This will bring a final conclusion to six full years of diplomatic conflict between the two nations.

There will be an official announcement at a joint meeting between Israel and Turkey and then ambassadors will once again be dispatched.

Israel had earlier agreed to compensate the families of the ten Turks killed in the Israeli operation that stopped the flotilla of Turkish ships from breaking the sea barricade against Gaza.

Israel announced that they "regretted what happened." At the time, that was not enough for Turkey - they wanted an apology. Israel did not want to issue an apology. That would have meant that Israel's actions were wrong and unjustified. And of course Israel does not think they were wrong or unjustified.

Six years later Israel issued an "apology". There are two reasons for the change in terminology. One is that Israel wants Turkey back on board. The second reason is that six years is enough time for the people of Israel not to be upset and may not even see the difference in meaning between regret and apology.


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Hamas To Import Israeli Watermelons
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

In Gaza this summer the price of watermelons is going through the roof. And in Gaza, watermelons are a staple of the summer season. They are eaten in the evening, the afternoon and just about every other time all summer long.
Right now, the price of the melons is prohibitive. So the Hamas Ministry of Agriculture came up with a plan to lower the cost of watermelons for the people of Gaza.

Hamas is letting in Israeli watermelons. For three days the market will be flooded with Israeli watermelons in the hope that the Israeli melons will flood the market and bring down the price.

I'm a bit skeptical.

Three days is not a lot of time and while it will most probably artificially alter the price, it will then re-adjust and come back to normal.
Or, the Israeli watermelons will prove superior in taste and quality and they will become even more expensive lifting the price of both Gaza’s and Israeli watermelons.

The final possibility is that the demand will be so great that Gazans will want more Israeli watermelons and other produce and Hamas will let in more and more. If that should happen then the price of watermelons will drop as the market will naturally force down the price of produce.

The plan may just work. Then again, maybe not.


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Hackers Hit Airlines
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I read with amazement a report by the Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) that most commercial aircraft and airports are susceptible to hacks.

I was astonished to find out just how many hacks have grounded flights around the world.

The worst part of it all was that when I investigated the hacks, I discovered that they were very simple hacks.

About a year ago a hacker grounded and disrupted Polish Lot Airlines. And when a Spanish cargo plane crashed it was discovered that three of the four computers on board were totally wiped clean.
Four people were killed in that crash.

There are all kinds of hacking. Some are just for fun. Flights where everyone is served a vegetarian meal is harmless - and maybe even healthy. But a hack is a hack is a hack.

We need to make certain that our planes and airports are in our control and not under the control of some outside power.

You never know what power may be lurking behind a hack - even an innocuous hack..

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Iran is Pumping Much More Oil
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is now producing oil at a rate that makes them a major player in the oil world.

In January, when the sanctions were lifted, Iran produced 1.3 million barrels a day. By April, they were producing 2 million barrels per day.

May's figures put Iranian oil production at 3.64 million barrels per day.

Several problems emerge.

One problem is that Iran is making such serious headway that they are creeping up into the Saudi market.

A bigger problem is that fewer people are buying the oil. The market is weakening and just because the Iranians are pumping oil, it does not mean they have someplace to unload it.

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Iran Buys 220 Passenger Planes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

This past week Iran signed a deal with Boeing for 100 passenger jets. And a few weeks earlier Iran signed a deal with Airbus for 118 planes.

This is enormous. The newest Iranian plane was a 1994 Airbus. Their fleet is so old that most of the planes are from the 1970’s - from before the revolution.

The condition of Iran's planes and their safety was so poor that they are not allowed fly over Europe. This is all the results of the sanctions that did not allow spare airplane parts to be imported to Iran.

Before this purchase Iran only had 46 jets. Now they will have nearly 220 brand new planes and the EU has already approved flight plans with the new planes.

The price of the planes will total about $60 billion. It is an investment that will have huge benefits for Iran.

We are seeing more and more doors opening for Iran. We are witnessing massive changes. It signals that there will be almost no way to snap sanctions back on sanctions Iran. Actually, just the opposite.


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Obama Caused ISIS Attack in Orlando
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Senator McCain said that President Obama was responsible for the ISIS terror attack in Orlando.

What he meant was that the policies of the president led to the creation of ISIS and that with different policies there would never have been the rise of ISIS and, consequently, there would never have been an attack on Orlando.

President Obama visited Orlando yesterday and met with victims and families of the victims.

He told them that they, or their loved ones, were killed and shot by a single individual. This is so dishonest.

The president paralleled this terror in Orlando with Aurora, Colorado Newton and Connecticut. How wrong. This was terror not a crazed individual. This terrorist was part of ISIS.

ISIS does not require or need membership - it just requires watching internet videos or reading a website.

Those who believe the president simply do not understand the nature of ISIS and the modern face of terror.

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ISIS Terror Squads on Way to Europe
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An ISIS Terror squad is en route to Belgium and France. They are traveling through Turkey and Greece.

The intelligence message was sent to Belgium and the Belgians sent it on to France. They are evaluating the information.

Neither country yet increased their threat level. They explain their inaction by saying that France and Belgium constantly get alerts and cannot change their status on a whim without evaluating the threat. The say that their threat level is already at 3 or 4. It is very serious but not the highest

The description of the ISIS squad is very clear and the targets are obvious.

Not raising the threat level is irresponsible at best and possibly even criminal.

We hope that the plans of the terrorists will be foiled. But unless France and Belgium tighten their defenses, attacks will be successfully carried out.

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Muslims Supporting Orlando Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The dark web has been full of praise for the terrorist Omar Mateen.

There have been some condemnations, but those are relatively tepid.

The essence of the praise arcs over two topics. One is the attack against the infidel. The other is the attack against gays.

One blogger wrote that the terrorist will have a place in Jannah. Jannah is Arabic for heaven. The word has the same root as Gan in Hebrew which means garden, as in the Garden of Eden.

Another writer, this one named Ahmed, is very verbose and graphically praises the terrorist.

He writes "He is a hero -- Let me kiss your hand ... Finally a martyr died in place where people deserved to die not in a Mosque"

"Those who apologize are stupid donkeys. I hope a Civil War breaks out and kills the Americans"

"Allahu Ahkbar - Allah brought the battle to their doorstep ... This made me very happy."

These were some of the less inflammatory praises heaped on Mateen. The other stuff is really ugly.

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It's Called Terror
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Terror hit Orlando. Do not be deceived. It was ISIS terror. It was Islamic terror.

Not to call it terror is not simply a mistake but it is also a hindrance.

Not to call it terror is an obstacle in confronting terror.
One needs to know what one is confronting in order to stop it.

Terror, Islamic terror in particular and ISIS terror in the West especially in the United States, is a very particular terror.

This terror cannot be confronted in the same way that normal police activity and investigations deal with terror.

To confront Islamic terror, authorities need more latitude. But if you don't acknowledge acts as being Islamic terror, that latitude will never be given. And our risk of attack is heightened.

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US Calls on Israel to Not Respond to the Terror
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The United States State Department issued a statement on Thursday about Israel and the Palestinians.

According to the statement: Israel "must" avoid an increase of tension with the Palestinians in the aftermath of the terror attack perpetrated in central Tel Aviv that resulted in the murder of 4 Israelis and left another sixteen people murdered.
Excuse me? Israel "must"!

Does the US Department of State expect Israel to kiss the Palestinians for this? What would a responsible US response be in such a situation?

Israel always exercises restraint. Otherwise there would be wanton killing and counter attacking. And when Israel does launch an operation is it a surgical strike and carried out with the utmost care to avoid civilian casualties.

Palestinian terrorists, on the other hand, embark on missions to murder and injure as many civilians as possible.

It is hard not to be incensed by these boneheaded official directives cum statements issued by the United States.

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PA Condemns Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The terror that rocked Tel Aviv killing four innocent people and injuring another sixteen is still very raw.

In an official statement the Palestinian Authority rejected the act of terror but made no mention of Tel Aviv. That was not an oversight. It was a deliberate omission because Tel Aviv is a modern Zionist city created in 1909 next to the Arab city of Jaffa.

The condemnation statement was issued in writing from the office President Mahmoud Abbas. It read: the PA "reaffirms its rejection of all operations that target civilians from any background regardless of the justifications."

The statement continued: "Achieving a just peace and creating a positive climate is what (will) contribute to removing the causes of tension and violence in the region."

The statement concluded saying: "Achieving peace requires everyone to stop taking any action that will increase tensions and resorting to violence."

According to a recent study, Palestinian support for terror is down slightly from three months ago when a similar study was done. The study focused on stabbings.

Three months ago 58% of Palestinians supported stabbings, now 51% support stabbings.

Three months ago 65% of those asked thought that violence would lead to an Intifada that would lead to improvement in their lives in a way that negotiations would not. Today 58% believe in that theory.

Sometimes small gains are the most important.

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NATO & Security
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

For more than a year I have been arguing that the Western world lacks a true understanding of the terror threat.

Now, finally, NATO is discussing the appointment of an assistant director of intelligence. They are finally thinking about creating a position specifically designed to confront ISIS.

There are those who are in favor and those who are still opposed to creating this new position. It is not yet clear whether NATO will indeed create the position and allot for the clout and the funds and the personnel necessary to create a division to confront ISIS through the establishment of a unified intelligence system.

Should it ever come into existence, the new division must place emphasis on cyber terror, cyber trolls and intel. They will need to get up close and personal in the dark web and watch ISIS very carefully.

One major problem that NATO will confront if this unit were to be created is that the unit will step on the toes of other, non-aligned, nations. That issue will need to be resolved.

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Putin & Bibi Meet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Putin and Netanyahu met again today in Moscow.

This is their fourth meeting in six months.

Netanyahu has met with Putin more often than he has met with US President Obama. That small fact speaks volumes about relationships within this triangle.

Unlike the emergency meeting six weeks ago when, on the eve of Passover, Netanyahu ran to Russia to clarify and correct some communication problems with the Russian and Israeli air forces, this meeting was more diplomatic. The trip involved meeting the Jewish community. It was an official diplomatic outing which also combined cultural and social events.

Of course, there were official and obligatory press conferences and photo ops.

Putin wants to be a major force in the Middle East. He has set up operations in Syria and is continuing in his effort to expand his influence.

In order to be effective Putin needs a very good and strong working relationship with Israel. That is now his mission.

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Ramadan Has Begun
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Ramadan, the month-long fast in Islam, started yesterday.

Ramadan is one of the five pillars of Islam. The objective of the fast is to gain introspection, self-improvement and atonement.

1.6 billion Muslims around the world are said to be fasting. That is over 22 % of the 7 billion people on earth. I'm not certain how many Muslims actually fast, but even if it is half that number, it is still a huge and significant number.

During Ramadan Muslims break their fast each night at sundown. As an aside, our English word breakfast originates because we break our fast every morning after not having eaten all night. Muslims break fast after not having eaten all day.

In the Koran the original Muslim fast was only one day long. It paralleled the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. But after the Jewish tribes of Arabia rejected Muhammed's message, he changed the single day-long fast into a month-long fast.

That change along with other changes was designed to break from Judaism and "one up" the tradition on which Islam was based.

It was at this time that Islamic prayer turned its back on Jerusalem and began praying towards Mecca. It was also when Islam moved from praying three times a day to five times a day.

ISIS is calling on Muslims around the world to attack infidels during Ramadan. ISIS and other terrorists see this month of introspection and atonement as well suited for attacking their enemy, the Western infidel, who abused and attacked Islam.

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Another Hamas Tunnel Digger Arrested
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF has allowed the publication of a report on the arrest of a 17 year old Palestinian boy from Gaza to go public. He was a tunnel digger, the third Hamas tunnel digger to be arrested by Israel in the past few weeks.

The 17 year old was arrested last month after he infiltrated into Israel. The boy had no weapons - but he was a treasure trove of information about Hamas, especially their tunnels.

The boy told his interrogators about his training and about the purpose and design of the tunnels. He described how the exits are all situated around schools and mosques. This we all knew, it was just confirmation, but much more information was gleaned from the interrogations.

This terrorist had no contact with the other two tunnel diggers who are also in Israeli custody.

There is clearly a large cadre of tunnel diggers and they are spread throughout Gaza.

The big mystery is why these three Gazans crossed the borders. What did they hope to accomplish? In the case of this young boy, he had no weapons and no direction. He was caught upon his exit.

It is entirely possible that these boys are dupes, sent over by Hamas
to test the response time of Israel to a border crossing. You can never tell when dealing with Hamas. And you can never be too careful. Hamas leaders are very casual about using their people as human guinea pigs.

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ISIS Has A Plan B
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The West is successfully striking at ISIS in Iraq and in Syria.
ISIS is taking serious hits. Recent victories by the West in Fallujah, Hit and Ramadi as well as a pounding from increased air strikes have begun to take a toll on ISIS.

Recruitment for ISIS is at an all time low. To rectify that situation, ISIS is in need of a huge public attack and a real victory.

But ISIS has a plan B.

Plan B is already in operation. ISIS has already pulled out much of their forces from Iraq and Syria and established a new front and base of operations - in Libya and in Yemen.

ISIS knows that they need to move on and that they are out-skilled and out-gunned in Iraq and Syria. Their downsized recruits and recruiting tell the story.

ISIS will now romanticize their struggle in Libya and in Yemen.

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Abbas Will Speak to Israel's New Foreign Minister
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking.

A delegation of Israeli mayors met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday.

The timing of the meeting is very important -- the Paris Conference, which is Europe's attempt to solve the peace issue between Israel and the Palestinians, begins today.

Israel has also empowered Egypt to create and initiate a peace conference.

The mayors were optimistic with the result of their meeting with Abbas as were the Palestinians.

The great surprise was that Abbas said that he would speak to Israel's new minister of defense, Avigdor Lieberman.

Abbas said that even though Lieberman referred to Palestinian leadership as "diplomatic terrorists" he also spoke positively about the Two State Solution. Abbas said that he was not dealing with Lieberman's past, just his present and his future.

Palestinian President Abbas is under huge amounts of pressure to meet with Israel. These comments are telling. They show an openness on Abbas' part and a willingness to sit down and negotiate with Israel.

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The Presidential Election
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I've Been Thinking:

The most common question I get nowadays is about the presidential candidates.

The big question on people's minds is which candidate is better for Israel. Everyone wants to know which candidate is better on security. Of course, people also want to know which candidate has the best chance of winning.

Now that we are down to two candidates - even though the third party option has also emerged --- it is time to clarify some essential points of presidential politics.

The excitement about these issues will grow as we approach summer and the conventions which will be held at the end of July.
The conventions formulate and cast the candidates in the context of their parties.

Conventions ground the candidates and force them into a platform. For better or for worse, no matter which party you cheer for, the convention merges the candidate with the party.

We need to watch and see if either candidate wants to abandon ship or the party.

Until the conventions are over it is impossible to answer questions - even questions as simple as who is best for Israel's security, for US security, and who has the best chance to win.

Patience is the name of this game.


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Israel Bolsters Northern Border
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is worried that ISIS and Hezbollah are building fronts from which to strike and attack their northern border.

So the Israelis are implementing a strategy that is reminiscent of Lebanon in the 1980's and 90's. Israel has created and is now expanding a 'liaison unit' for their northern border.

The job of the liaison unit is to reach out and create positive and essential relations with villagers and leaders in Syria. So far, it has been a very effective plan. Locals have informed upon and even convinced ISIS, al Qaeda and Hezbollah not to attack Israel.

Since the conflict in Syria began, thousands of wounded Syrians have been picked up by the IDF inside Syria and brought to Israeli hospitals. The wounded are treated, healed and sent back. These people have become important liaisons, too.

When Israel carried out this plan in Southern Lebanon, it began with humanitarian aid and health care and then moved to helping the locals fight for themselves. Eventually the Southern Lebanese Militia was actually under the authority of the head of Israel's Northern Command.

That situation created a safer Israel - until it all collapsed.

I hope that Israel will learn from its mistakes.

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Iran India Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Several days ago India and Iran signed a groundbreaking set of agreements. 12 sets of agreements in all.

They agreed to fight terror, radicalism, drug trafficking, cyber terror and other societal ills. They agreed to share intelligence and to work together.

The agreements were signed in Teheran by Iranian Prime Minister Rouhani and Indian Prime Minister Modi.

The jewel in the crown of the agreements was that India and Iran will mutually develop Chabahar port. Chabahar is located in the south of Iran outside the Persian Gulf. It is to the West of India and it is very important for them. The Indians are investing $500 million in the port - and it will be a significant conduit for them in the region.

India hopes that this will be the start of "bi" and "tri" level transit. If it all works out, the third party to this part of the agreement will be Afghanistan.

This new deal shows just how eager countries are to get Iran back up and moving forward. This deal with India illustrates how Iran can easily become a major player not just in the region, but also in Asia.

And that is a significant part of Iran's long term goal.

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Oil Nearly $50/ Barrel
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The price of oil is almost $50 a barrel. The price has continued to creep up even thought Canadian Suncor Energy oil-sands project is about to hit the market.

In addition OPEC will be meeting on Thursday and they will certainly be discussing the issue of supply.

The price of oil continues to slowly climb and that has important ramifications - and not just for our pocketbooks. If oil continues to climb beyond $50 and goes to $70 or $75, it will empower Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran and Saudi Arabia both suffered when oil prices dropped. Saudi Arabia lost power and influence. Iran nearly went bankrupt.

The tide is turning once again - and that is not good news for the West. Oil is the tool that greases the wheels of power and influence in large parts of the world.


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Turkey Livid with US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Erdogan is livid with the United States. He is angry after viewing pictures of US Special forces wearing Kurdish insignias while training YPG and PYD Kurdish groups in Syria.

Erdogan said that this was a violation of the agreements that the US and Turkey had made.

The US Defense department acknowledge that it was a mistake and the issue is now being corrected and dealt with. The official word was that the forces on the ground should not have been wearing the insignias.

Obviously there is a tightrope here. The Turks want to destroy the Kurds. And the Turks will do anything and everything to prevent the Kurds from getting an independent territory. They have used the ISIS conflict to inflict serious damage on he Kurds - killing about 5,000 of them,

But the US needs real fighters on the ground - reliable and dedicated fighters to fight ISIS. The only group that meets those qualifications is the Kurds. So the US will continue support the Kurds and that upsets Turkey.

Kurds will not risk their lives and families simply to fight for either Iraq or Syria. The Kurds need to know that they are working toward their goal of territorial independence.

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Muslims Attack Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Christian population in Egypt constitutes a large minority, numbering about 10 million people which puts them at 10% of the entire population. And yet, Egypt's Christians live in fear.

Christians living in Egypt are Coptic Christians.

In a village south of Cairo, seven Christian homes were recently burned and an elderly, 70 year of Christian mother, was stripped, beaten and dragged through the streets.

The woman's son, a Christian, was the real target of the attack. The son managed to escape as the mob shot thousands of bullets into the air. The attackers were so angry at not being able to find the son, that they grabbed the mother and attacked her. They also burned and looted neighboring homes.

Police arrived two hours after the attack. They arrested six people and are looking for twelve others. According to witnesses the angry crowd was as large as 300 people all shouting in unison "Death to the Infidel." President el-Sisi has condemned the act of violence.

Rumors had spread that the son was involved with a Muslim woman - a practice that is shunned in Egypt. And the son actually called the police the day before the attack issuing a complaint about threats that he was receiving.

The Christian community feels threatened. This is just one of many examples.

It should be noted that had it been a Muslim man and a Christian woman - there would have been no reaction from the Muslims.

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Hacking Middle East Banks
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Middle East banks are now the targets of a massive hack. This hack is happening only one month after the largest bank in the Middle East - the Qatar National Bank (QNB), was hacker and 1.4GB of data was stolen.

That hack was traced to a Turkish hacker group which eventually did take responsibility for the hack on YouTube.

This new set of hacks is different from previous hacks. Those responsible are not taking anything, they are just searching for things. The new hack is not for exploitation, it is just for reconnaissance. And that leaves analysts asking a lot of questions.

In this latest hack emails were sent to people in the banks as if they were from co-workers. When the emails were opened, downloaded and forwarded the infection went with them.

It is not clear how many banks have been hacked... but it is safe to say that many more than a handful fell victim to this new cyber attack. More than one and less than 50.

The looming question is, who stands to gain from the knowledge that was gained. I have a few ideas.

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New Head of Iran's Powerful Assembly of Elders
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Ayatollah Amhed Jannati was elected to be head of the Assembly of Elders in Iran. This is one of the most powerful positions in Iran - it is the Assembly of Elders who select and support the Supreme Leader.

Jannati is an extreme ultra conservative. He won hands down receiving 55 votes in the internal election cast by the 88 members of the Assembly of Elders.

Here are some examples of Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati's attitudes:

In April 2008, Jannati said: "You cried: 'Death to the Shah,' and indeed, he died. You cried: 'Death to Israel,' and it is now on its deathbed. You cry: 'Death to America,' and before long, Allah willing, the prayer for the dead will be recited over it."

And on 17 September 2010, he claimed that "opinion polls reveal[ed] that 84 percent of the Americans consider the US administration responsible for 9/11 attacks."

This is a national leader in Iran who has been in central positions since the revolution in 1979. He is the overwhelming voice in the most powerful body in Iran.

This is hardly a liberal and open Iran.

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PA Museum is Just Sad
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 24, 2016

I've Been thinking:

The Palestinians opened a museum of Palestinian history and culture in Ramallah last week- and it was empty of exhibits. That is both funny and tragic at the same time.

It is also an unbelievable metaphor. A $28 million dollar building that took decades to create was opened to huge fanfare - and there were no exhibits inside.

They said that people will come anyway, just to see the gardens - which are not completed. They admit that the leadership of the museum was in conflict and could not decide what type of direction the museum should take - so it took no direction.

Palestinian leaders opened a satellite museum in Beirut, Lebanon the same week which focused on Palestinian embroidery. The theme of that exhibit is that embroidery is a significant part of Palestinian culture. The hope is to open other satellite museums around the
world in the next year.

The entire idea has been a mess. This is the biggest single project the Palestinian Authority has embarked upon and it is a colossal failure in almost every way - especially in its symbolism and the message it is conveying to the Palestinian people.

For instance, there is no shortage of Palestinian architects, but a Dublin firm was commissioned to design and build the museum. And the heralded gardens are landscaped by a Jordanian firm. Even the director is not a Palestinian - he was hired under the pretense that he was the head curator at the renowned British Museum - but now it has been disclosed that he is not a curator at all, just a visiting scholar.

You can't make this stuff up.

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Building in Saudi Arabia Drops 51%
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Building in Saudi Arabia has dropped 51% compared to last year at this time.

The drop is due to low oil prices.

Saudi Arabia has scaled back on all their building. The building that is going on is the result of contracts that are already signed and buildings in the midst of being built. Most are in the tourism and business areas.

Tens of thousands of jobs have been eliminated and many foreign workers have left the kingdom.

The cost of the war in Yemen in which the Saudis are supporting a regime against an Iranian insurgence is also tapping the Kingdom's reserves. Add to that the enormous cost of supporting the movement against Syrian leader Assad while Iran is propping him up.

Despite being the second largest exporter of oil in the world, Saudis are hemorrhaging money and no longer making what they once made. They are in trouble.

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ISIS Vid Calls for Small Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A new ISIS video has been posted by Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the spokesman of ISIS. He is calling on followers to strike at as many targets as possible during the Muslim month of Ramadan.

The nearly 30 minute long message was very explicit - calling on ISIS supporters to advance the cause everywhere they live.

Ramadan is a month long Muslim fast dedicated to introspection. It begins, for most Muslims, on June 6th and ends on July 5th. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night, after sundown.

Al-Adnani said: "Ramadan is coming, the month of attacks and jihad, the month of conquest so be prepared and be on alert, and make sure that everyone of you spends it (Ramadan) in the name of God on the attack. Requesting from God that it (Ramadan), God willing, be a month of calamity on the non-believers anywhere, especially by those soldiers and supporters of the caliphate in Europe and America."

"The smallest action you do in their heartland is better and more enduring to us than what you would if you were with us. If one of you hoped to reach the Islamic State, we wish we were in your place to punish the Crusaders day and night."

These comments are a call to arms for followers and lone wolves to do whatever they can, however they can, wherever they live.

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Let Saudis Sell their US Interests
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has threatened to pull out their US investments and sell their ownership of US companies if the United States permits 9-11 victims to sue the Gulf oil state.
This is a serious threat and people are rightfully taking it seriously.

And yet, it is also an empty threat and would prove to be a silly move.

Saudi Arabian interests in the United States total about $750 billion. Selling all that, over a period as short as a few months, will cause be a huge loss to the Saudis. Actually, good estimates say that if the Saudis sell their US assets, they will take more than a 50% loss on the sell. That would mean $750 billion will melt away and be reduced to something just over $300 billion. That is a huge loss - and a colossal failure.

The Saudi own $117 billion in US treasury bonds. Even if they liquidate all the bonds overnight, it will not have a huge impact. The daily treasury market is about $500 billion. China sold off their bonds in order to raise cash and it did not impact the market.

If Saudi Arabia did choose to try to sell their interests, there would be a long line of interested people excited about picking up those investments at a price way below market value. Many of those new buyers may actually be Americans.

If the Saudi follow through with their plan, it will backfire and the result may actually be better for the United States.

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Bibi Stabilizes His Government
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The government of Bibi Netanyahu just got stronger and more stable.

Lieberman and his party of six have just agreed to join the Netanyahu coalition. That decision will further guarantee Netanyahu's positions and power.

In joining the coalition Lieberman will become the defense minister and his party will receive several other governmental positions.

The additional six Knesset seats give Netanyahu a total of 67 seats - seven more than the majority he needs to hang on as prime minister
.
The dynamics of this new expanded coalition pushes the Netanyahu government further to the right, but it also insulates the prime minister from any harm the two religious parties in his coalition can do to him - he can now survive if either of those parties leaves, he has the votes.

Netanyahu was not only negotiating with Lieberman, he was also negotiating with Labor. And they almost succeeded in joining a coalition. But, as they say, almost doesn't count.

Labor has 24 Knesset seats. Had they joined with Netanyahu they would have received the foreign ministry portfolio. That move have put Netanyahu in the center left position and stabilized him even more with 85 seats.

And if both would have joined the coalition that would have made it 91 seats.

Some things, it seems, are just not meant to be.

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Pope Tells West to Stop Cultural Colonialism
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope has taken Western countries to task about, as he calls it, their cultural colonialism. He is speaking especially about the United States.

The Pope has been very critical of the desire of Western countries to impose democracy on others, without relating to or concerning itself with local cultures.

In an interview with the French Catholic paper La Croix, the Pope said: "Faced with current Islamist terrorism, we should question the way a model of democracy that was too Western was exported to countries where there was a strong power, as in Iraq, or Libya, where there was a tribal structure."

"We cannot advance without taking these cultures into account. As a Libyan said some time ago: 'We used to have one Gaddafi, now we have 50 of them!'"

The Pope is not anti-democracy. He is simply suggesting that respect for local culture will more effectively achieve the end results of democracy without creating a buildup of resentment.

On Islam, the Pope said that he does not think that Europe or the West is anti-Islam. Rather, they are anti-ISIS. There is a huge difference.

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Jordan Won't Let Gazans In
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab world has a very harsh approach to towards Palestinians.

Since last summer Jordan has not permitted Palestinians from Gaza to pass through Jordan. For the past several years Egypt has not permitted the movement of Gazans.

The most ironic element of the story is that while Israel is permitting more and more Palestinians exit and transport over Israel, they can't leave because they have no place to go. Jordan will not let them in. Because of Jordan, Gazans are stuck in Gaza.

The reasons should be obvious. Gazans are thought to be terrorists and affiliated with Hamas.

Gazans who are attempting to go to work, to the hospital, to the university, cannot go even when the destination is Jordan. A Jordanian university may accept a student from Gaza, but that same student will not be able to attend the university because of the Jordanian law.

This is a problem. It is not a problem caused by Israel.

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They Mourn Israel's Creation
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, May 15, the Palestinians commemorated Israel's 1948 creation in what they called the catastrophe, or, the Nakba. It is a yearly tradition.

They mourned the creation of the State of Israel which took place 68 years ago. In Palestinian eyes, Israel's creation was their destruction.

In Palestinian cities and villages throughout the West Bank a siren rang for 68 seconds. One second for every year of Israel.
Palestinians stood still in mourning, mimicking the siren that Israel sounds for Holocaust Memorial Day and for the day that memorializes Israel's fallen soldier heroes and victims of terror.

They created a model train out of cardboard, put it on wheels and had it run from Dheisha, a refugee camp just south of Bethlehem, to Rachel's tomb in northern Bethlehem.

It was an effective use of a near life size model train which they called "The Train of Return." Only one or two people were on the train but they used large model keys symbolizing the keys to their family homes that they still hang on to and hand down to younger generations. The idea is to use these keys to return home.

Of course there were riots.

The creation of Israel displaced many people - including millions of Jews across the Arab world who had to escape the Arab world and run to Israel for refuge.

Palestinians tell just part of the story. Yes, Arabs living in Israel left their homes. But one of the major forces telling them to leave was Arab leadership which told them to clear out while they destroyed the Jews and forced them into the sea.

The saddest part about the Nakba is that it places all the blame on Israel. It does not consider the Arab role. Israel won the war - that was not part of their consideration at the time. That was a tragedy.

The other tragedy is the incongruity - this day bemoans the creation of Israel in 1948. It does not focus on the territories. Dhesisha and Bethlehem and the entire West Bank were part of Jordan after 1948, all the way up until 1967.

Palestinian sadness is real. But Israel is only partially responsible. Only after they realize this will there be a possibility of living together. Otherwise, Palestinians will continue to wish and work for the disappearance and destruction of Israel.

And that is not going to happen.

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Ex Syrian General Wants Peace w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An ex-Syrian brigadier general named Nabir al Dandal recently sent a letter to Yuli Edelstein, speaker of the Israeli Knesset.

Al Dandal said that the Syrians want and need peace with Israel. They want it now more than ever. The letter was sent through academic researchers.

In a phone interview with Ynet, a leading internet source of Israeli news, al Dandal said: "When I was a part of the regime, I was convinced that former President Hafez Al-Assad missed an opportunity to make peace like former Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat. But when you serve the regime, you need to say what it wants (you to say) and not what you really think."

Al Dandal expressed his frustration that Israel has not supported the Syrian resistance against Assad. "Israel has an opportunity to make peace with the Syrian people, who now, since the revolution against al-Assad, have made sense of many things including the lie that the regime is selling regarding its resistance to Israel."

The ex-general and former high level Assad government leader made it clear that he wants real peace - as do the people of Syria.
"Indeed, those who believed and those who were Jews or Christians or Sabeans - those (among them) who believed in Allah and the Last Day and did righteousness - will have their reward with their Lord, and no fear will there be concerning them, nor will they grieve."

Al Dandal also said that: "The Syrian people want to emphasize to the Israeli people that it wants to separate itself from wars and that it is ready to take the necessary steps to build the infrastructure for religious coexistence in the homeland of Moses and Jesus."

This is very important. It shows a real opening in dialogue between Israelis and Syrians. It shows potential. Al Danadal, who says he is not just a one man voice but rather the voice of many people is bemoaning the fact that there was no diplomatic movement to normalize relations with Syria as there was with Egypt - and he is hoping that that normalization can still be brought into play.

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Tensions Btw Iran and Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia just got worse. Of course - like always, it is all about the Shiite Sunni conflict.

In this latest chapter of the conflict, Iranians will not be able to attend the Haj in January. Iran blames Saudi Arabia for not being able to work out the details so that, like all religious Muslims, Iranians pilgrims can make the religious trek to Mecca.

Last year during the Haj over 2000 people were trampled to death. 464 of the dead were Iranian.

Also this year, Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran.
It happened in January after Iran burned and attacked the Saudi Embassy in Teheran after the Saudis executed a Shiite religious leader.

These tensions make normalization very difficult. The two states are not allies. They are rivals for the leadership of the Islamic world. There is no way to make their interaction less contentious.

It all goes to prove, once again, that the internal conflicts of the Middle East are rooted in divisions that have nothing to do with Israel. And these tensions are not likely to be resolved.

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Israel Strikes Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday may 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

They struck oil in Israel. You know ... black gold, Texas tea.

Oil not gas.

Gas has been in the news a lot lately, mostly due to the huge reserves discovered and now being tapped in the Mediterranean Sea.

But now we're talking about oil. A group of companies have partnered together in order to pump the new found oil.

The oil was found near the Dead Sea in a place called Marimur. It was discovered by the same group that first discovered oil in Halamish in 1995 and is located very nearby.

Ever since 1995 there was believed to be a small but significant oil reserve at that spot. At the time, the low price of oil helped the owners' investors make the decision not to drill.

But now, despite the low price of oil, things might be different.

This is very big news.

It will not make Israel a large oil producer or even exporter--- but it will put her on the oil producing map.

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Muslim Terror Strikes in Munich
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

He shouted Alahu Akbar-- Allah is Great in Arabic - as he stabbed four people on a train platform 20 miles east of Munich in Germany.

One of those stabbed died from his wounds. It all took place just before 5 AM as people were commuting to work early on Tuesday morning.

It is hard not to call this Islamic terror. And yet, people are calling the terrorist crazy or psychotic deranged. They say he was talking drivel when apprehended by the police.

People are making excuses for this act of terror.

Europeans are looking for reasons. Was this man brainwashed or encouraged by a radical Islamic group? Was he a member? They will search his computer to see if he was part of the now infamous, loosely linked, cyber community that supports ISIS. A community you do not join or sign up for - all you do is click on and watch, read and write about radical Islam.

It does not matter if the terrorist was officially part of an established organization. The current hi tech world of ISIS stimulates lone wolves and very small units to act on their own.

If he was just a kook, he would not have been shouting Allah is Great as he stabbed people. People who stab other people and shout out Alahu Akbar are Muslim terrorists.

Period, end.

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Prof Thought to be Terrorists b/c of Math
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine you were doing a complicated differential equation while sitting on a plane. You scribble away and your seat mate thinks you are plotting in Arabic and planning a terror attack.

Well, that is exactly what happened on an American Airlines flight flying from Philadelphia to Syracuse.

The person doing the math was a world renowned math professor from the University of Pennsylvania who on his way to give a lecture on math. His name is Guido Menzio and he is originally from Italy. Was he surprised.

The humor cannot be lost. The person who reported the "math attack" asked to get off the plane claiming that she was ill. But once she deplaned, she said the real reason was her seatmate's scribbles.

What is shocking is that this entire non-incident could not be dealt with quickly and dismissed. Instead, the flight was delayed two hours.

This is a no brainer. Actually, all you need to do is use your brain and you would know that this was not a terror threat.

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ISIS Attacks Cairo - Kills 8 Police
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS attacked and killed 8 Egyptian police in Cairo yesterday.

The ISIS terrorists attacked a minibus filled with police, including an officer. They killed everyone inside the vehicle and stole their weapons before running off.

ISIS has claimed responsibility.

ISIS has long been active in the Sinai and now they have expanded to the northern Sinai. While they have attacked in the cities several times before, it has not been a regular occurrence. Their style in cities until now has been small attacks or explosions - not massive attacks against large numbers of police. This attack is a watershed event.

Over the past few months Egypt has been clamping down on the expansion of extremists, especially trying to stop ISIS. Egyptian fears are real and not imagined. They walk a very thin line when it comes to cracking down on freedoms and Egypt's extremists are using those freedoms to organize and to popularize their particular points of view.

Egypt understands the potential risks.

Yesterday's ISIS attack in Cairo - and not in the Sinai, proves just how important it is to keep the pressure up against ISIS.

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Muslim Mayor of London - Not an Anti Semite
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Sadiq Khan assumed his new job as mayor of London Saturday. Khan is a Muslim, his parents and grandparents came to England from Pakistan just before he was born. Khan's election was filled with tension.

On Sunday his first full day in office in his first official act, Khan, went to the National Holocaust commemoration in London.

This was a very important gesture for unity and it dispelled any feeling that people might have that Khan holds the same feeling towards Jews as does Ken Livingston, a former Labour party London mayor who was removed from the Labour party for making statements comparing Israel and Hitler. (Actually, on Sunday, Livingston said that it would have been better had Israel not been created.)

In a previous position, Khan headed Ed Miliband's successful election team and that thrust him into politics. It should e noted that Miliband and his twin brother, both important British political Labour leaders, come from and continue to be active and proud Jews.

While Khan is undeniably Muslim, it is clear that he does not toe the Muslim line. There was even a fatwa (a religious edict) pronounced against him because of his support of same sex marriage.

Britain's Labour pary has its fair share of anti-Semites. And they are getting more and more obnoxious. But I do not see Khan as one of them. Actually, I would guess that a trip to Israel is the works -- even by the end of this summer.

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Hamas Needs to Decide
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are shooting mortars from Gaza into Israel.

The mortar attacks are a direct result of Israel's discovery of another underground terror tunnel.

The logic works like this: Israel is searching for tunnels and Hamas is shooting at them to slow the search process down.

It is clear that Hamas and Israel do not want the situation to escalate into a war. But Hamas has a serious question to answer.

Because Israel is searching and has found two tunnels within ten days, Hamas is in danger of losing one of its most effective weapons.
Should Hamas abandon the weapon, or will they use it as they can in order to attack Israel before they lose it totally.

The reason Hamas does not want this to escalate is because they are not prepared for an all out conflict similar to the conflict of two summers ago. So Hamas is taking the middle position. They are hitting Israel and hoping not to escalate.

Israel struck back with their air force. Thus far this is not a significant change in the status quo. But it is a balancing act.

Hamas is counting on knowing the proper calculus - one that will not break the paradigm. If Hamas pushes too hard, it could force Israel's hand. And Hamas fully understands that.

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Iran Threatens to Close Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Rhetoric between Iran and the US is ratcheting higher.

On Monday the Iranian Supreme Leader called attention to US naval activity in the Straits of Hormuz. He reminded the world that Iran controls the Straits and the United States is permitted there only by Iranian largesse.

And yesterday, the deputy head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard announced on Iranian national television that if the United States continues it aggression against Iran --- Iran will close the Straits to the US and her allies.

Them's fighting words.

One third of the world's oil passes through the Straits every day.

I cannot determine if this rhetoric is the onset of new tensions between the United States and Iran or if it is a revival of old tensions.

What I can say is that Iran is speaking very boldly.

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Rouhani Is a Reformer
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

President Rouhani of Iran spoke about reforming Iranian society while at the International Book Fair in Teheran.

Rouhani said that people who criticize the government should not be arrested. He said "critics should not be detained, critics should not be sent to jail."

This has been Rouhani's platform since his election in 2013. Rouhani leads and represents the reformists in Iran. He believes that Iranian law has gone too far in limiting the freedoms of expression.

The February elections and the run-off elections for the parliament showed that Iran's reformists have a powerful groundswell and have a serious plurality that cannot be ignored. The fact that their leader is also the president adds credibility to their cause and their numbers will continue to grow.

And yet, it is essential to understand that change in Iran can only happen with the blessing of the Grand Ayatollah also known as the Supreme Leader.

The Grand Ayatollah has been touched by this reform movement. That is the reason he tapped Rouhani in the first place. But the Ayatollah is uncertain about what this all means and he has not implemented any significant changes in Iran.

Iran's parliamentary election is the most important vehicle the country has with which to inform The Supreme Leader of the true voice of the people.

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US Cyber Warriors
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

In a Senate hearing last week, the US Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff laid out an usually clear and detailed description of what the United States is doing to disrupt and attack ISIS through cyber attacks.

The objective is to disrupt ISIS' chain of communication and prevent them from moving money and even to block them out of access to their money. The US Cyber Command Center, headquartered in Tampa, FL, is spoofing ISIS and disturbing the very heart of the Islamic State.

The US cyber team is trying to isolate ISIS.

According to Ash Carter, the US Secretary of Defense, "The objectives there are to interrupt ISIL command and control, interrupt its ability to move money around, interrupt its ability to tyrannize and control population, interrupt its ability to recruit externally."

And, of course, -- "All of that it does in a cyber-enabled way."

One of the 27 US Cyber teams is dedicated exclusively to ISIS. It is made up of many Arabic speakers and hackers. US Cyber teams are a combination of military and civilian contractors specializing in hacking. Eventually there will be 133 different teams - each team composed of 45-60 people. In the end this division will to have 6,187 people hacking. We can call them cyber warriors.

They are coordinating their cyber attacks with their ground strikes.

Part of the US objective in cyber attacking ISIS is to take away their method of communication - including their hand held devices.
The United States can shut the devices down, but tapping them and tracking them leads to better results. (This is something the US defense leaders did not say in their testimony).

For some time now, ISIS has preferring using handheld phones and texting as opposed to internet.

And of course, the US Cyber team is also attacking recruiters and other ISIS sources in Europe and throughout the rest of the world.

Most dangerous of all is that ISIS has contracted outside freelance hackers to do their bidding. According to the Senate testimony the US Cyber team has been monitoring and dealing with them, too.

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Israel Lets Cement into Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is now again permitting cement to be brought into Gaza.

Why? After all, it is clear that Hamas has used the cement to build and fortify their tunnels of terror and their command and control bunkers. The reason is that Turkey and others, especially the UN, are asking nicely.

Israel wants to renew relations with Turkey. This gesture will go a long way towards achieving that goal.

Israel had stopped the movement of cement into Gaza. The cement was supposed to be used by UN and other sources to rebuild Gaza's infrastructure and buildings, especially housing and schools. But much of the cement was either pilfered by Hamas for their purposes or stolen and sold at huge gouging prices.

Israel actually embarrassed Hamas' deputy economics minister in Gaza, Imad al Baz, who was responsible for the stealing of the cement and its resale and for appropriating it in order to build tunnels.

Israel embarrassed al Baz by using social media pictures and short videos to show how he redirected the cement away from UN projects and into the hands of Hamas.

Now Israel is going to try again.

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Runoff Elections in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Results of the runoff elections for parliament in Iran are now coming in. The first elections were in February. In that election, 68 spots were too close to call or no candidate received the minimal required number of votes to win a seat.

Friday April 29th was the day the runoff took place.

Thus far it looks like the reformers who support the current president, Rouhani, received a plurality of the 68 spots. 30 of the 68 runoff seats will side with Rouhani. The remaining seats are split between the conservatives, the arch conservatives, and the independents.

The Iranian parliament has 290 seats. After all the votes and seats are finalized this election will give reformists a strong presence in public government.

This is a huge show of support for Rouhani and a terrible blow to Iran's religious leadership - especially the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah.

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Hamas Defeats Fatah in University Election
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few months there have been many surveys of Palestinian attitudes. Some of the results have been surprising, some have supported conventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom says to follow student body elections at universities in the West Bank and Gaza. If nothing else, you get a sense of the educated elite's point of view and you may get a picture of the direction of future Palestinian leadership. This, however, is a problematic barometer as the election results have swung back and forth from year to year.

That said, Bir Zeit University just trounced Fatah and elected Hamas. Bir Zeit is by far the best name in Palestinian higher education. It is located in Ramallah and offers a full array of subjects. For students staying close to home, it is the most respected of all Palestinian institutions of higher learning.

So the swing to Hamas - and away from the mainstream Fatah party that rules and controls the West Bank and the PA, is significant. It indicates that Abbas and his party have lost the faith of Palestinian youth.

How significant is it? I do not know, but that election is as telling as any other survey or any other student election.


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Saudis Testing the Waters
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Testing the waters. That's when leaders send out a message and see how it is received.

Saudi Arabia is testing the waters about diplomatic relations with Israel.

Retired Saudi General Anwar Eshki, who was a significant power and influence in Saudi strategic decision making, made an announcement that if Israel accepts Saudi Arabia's peace plan, Saudi Arabia will begin building an embassy in Tel Aviv.

Eshki, who was quoted in an extensive interview in Al Jazera, is a very high level source. He is trying to figure out if it is worthwhile to have diplomatic ties with Israel and what the blow back is going to be if Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel.

The answer is pretty clear. And it seems that the Saudis are interested in floating the idea.

So far there has been no negative feedback. But it only became public a few minutes ago.


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ISIS Cyber Threat
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Over 2/3 of tech professionals surveyed said that they believe there will a cataclysmic cyber attack against the United States within the next two years.

Over 90% of those surveyed think that private companies and government agencies should invest more money and effort protecting themselves.

In addition, the tech professionals believe that companies and corporations are more likely to be attacked and are more vulnerable to a cyber attack than government.

This is not good news.

ISIS and other terror groups are getting better at hiding themselves and their activity. It should be clear that terror groups are recruiting computer experts who can hack and attack and their attacks can be not only irritating, but far reaching and dangerous.

An attack against the electric center or water distribution source of large or even small cities would create mass hysteria.

Attacks are just a question of time. The United States must prepare itself. They need to be able to both defend themselves and respond and repair the damage immediately.

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MidEast Oil Losses 1/2 $Trillion
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its assessment of Mideast oil production profits and losses.
The IMF is an international agency whose objective is to stimulate international economic growth. The IMF loans money and directs money. Its' assessments on profits and losses is essential in plotting and anticipating investments.

Originally the IMF said that gulf oil exports should anticipate a $360 billion drop in profits. They have revised that number to $390 billion.

In addition, the IMF is predicting a half trillion dollar reduction of profits for next year.

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US ISIS Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Terror is in our midst --- here in the US. Not a group of crazies, but real dedicated ISIS players who swear their support to abu Bakr Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS.

Yesterday two men in Boston had additional charges added to the original charges against them for attempting to decapitate police officers. The added charges were terror charges.

They were plotting to decapitate police in the name of ISIS. The two, David Wright and Nicholas Rovinski, are now in prison.

While in prison Rovinski is recruiting for ISIS. He is continuing to try and convince his fellow inmates to decapitate non-believing inmates and then, when they get out of prison, to decapitate other non-believers. Rovinski is so committed to ISIS that he scribbled a pledge to support ISIS and Baghdadi on his charge sheet.

Funny thing is that both Rovinski and Wright pleaded not guilty to the charges -- despite the written pledge.

Obviously, ISIS does not consider their actions terror. They think that it is justifiable to decapitate police and non-believers.

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US May Buy Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Iron Dome was just used to shoot down a drone in the United States.

It was a test.

The purpose of the test was to evaluate the Iron Dome and see if it could be used against a variety of weapons, including US drones. This is the first time the Iron Dome was shot in the US. Most importantly, the US wants to purchase the Iron Dome but only when they know that it can work against various weapons.

In the past year the Iron Dome has been upgraded to strike a multitude of targets. That will make the weapon marketable. As of now the Iron Dome has not been sold to anyone.

Since 2011 the Iron Dome has shot down 1500 targets - that was a success rate of 90%. There are not many defense systems in the world that have that level of success.

The fact that the US is showing interest in the Iron Dome is huge.
The fact that Israel's Iron Dome is unique and one of a kind and will probably be purchased by the US is an enormous success.

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Saudis Not Opening Up to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been written in Israel and across the Arab world about a new relationship emerging between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings - but the perception is simply not correct.

Yes, lines of communication about security and terror and Islamic extremism are open and working. And two summers ago both Saudi Arabia and Egypt were kept up-to-date on Israel's actions against Hamas and they even egged Israel on to destroy Hamas.

And yes, Egypt just handed back to Saudi Arabia two Islands in the Straits of Tiran, the islands of Tiran and Sanafir. And the transfer of these Islands required Israeli approval -- so Saudi Arabia and Israel and Egypt engaged in important albeit indirect discussions.

BUT --- and there is a big but, the new Saudi King acts with a plan. And clearly, he has no plan to open relations with Israel - otherwise he would be doing that, even behind closed doors.

Saudi / Israeli interaction is only about achieving pragmatic small goals. It is that and nothing more.

We should continue to watch and see if more interaction and more expansive sharing takes place. That will be the sign of a real change in Saudi / Israel relations.

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AntiSemitism in Romania
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism can be found not only among the uneducated.

In Romania, a candidate for mayor named Marian Munteanu from the National Liberal Party, Romania's second largest political party, declared that Jews in Romania exaggerated the number murdered in the Holocaust in order to get more money.

The would-be mayor said Jews lied in order to "obtain illicit moneys from Romanian people through disinformation and manipulation of public opinion, with the complicity of treacherous elements who infiltrated the Romanian institutional structures."

Munteanu defended himself saying that he was not an anti-Semite. He also said that there was hardly any anti-Semitism in Romania because --- "there is hardly anti-Semitism, rather xenophobia. We are all philo-Semites because we are Christians."

Of course, he is wrong.

Just last year National Romanian TV broadcast a Christmas special that glorified the burning of Jews. The station was fined.
Anti-Semitism is, to this day, deeply entrenched in Romania.

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Yesterday Was a Bad Day
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, after the terror attack that rocked Jerusalem, an announcement glorifying the attack came out of Gaza.

Not a surprise.

The terror attack came right after Israel announced that they had discovered a terror tunnel from Gaza that opened into Israel. The tunnel was 100 feet deep.

Hamas and Gaza also issued a press statement, also typical. It was a report that five Palestinians had been convicted and sentenced to death for collaborating with Israel. Four of the collaborators were to be hanged and the fifth was to be shot by firing squad.

The five were convicted of informing Israel about the tunnels and telling them where they were located and where Hamas members lived.

There is no doubt that there are hundreds if not thousands of Gazans who relay information to Israel. That information, together with satellite and drone and other intel like computer intel, allows Israel to strike at Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza.

Hamas needs to intimidate their residents and strike fear into them. It is another form of terror - this time directed at their own.

What Hamas does not realize is that the people helping Israel are not just doing it for the money. These assets in Gaza do it because they hate Hamas and think that Hamas is destroying their society.

All the fear and all the terror of Hamas will not change that perception.

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Iran Says They will Protect MidEast from Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran's President Rouhani gave a speech addressed to the Muslim world, especially to her Arab neighbors, saying that Iran will defend everyone from terror threats and from Zionists threats.

Rouhani said: "If tomorrow your capitals face danger from terrorism or Zionism, the power that will give you a positive answer is the Islamic Republic of Iran."

"The power of our armed forces is not aimed at any of our neighbors ... Its purpose is to defend Islamic Iran and act as an active deterrent."

There are several important things happening in this speech.

Most importantly, Rouhani spoke at an army parade. It was the annual army parade in Iran during which the newest and most modern Iranian weaponry is displayed - it is intended as a source of great pride.
This parade showcased many of the new Russian arms that Iran has received since the arms embargo was lifted last year. Especially present was the newly acquired Russian S-300 missile system. (Actually, it is not certain how much of the missile system Iran received or if Iran actually received the entire system.)

Next in importance is that Iran wants everyone to understand that they are the protectors of the region. This is a theme that Iran has been pushing for some time. They want to usurp the roles of Egypt and Saudi Arabia as caretakers of the region. People on the Arab street are starting to believe them.

Iran also wants to emphasize that the people they support are not terrorists. In other words, in their eyes Hezbollah is not a terror organization.

And finally, Iran is taking a strong stand against those countries that are warming up their relations with Israel. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have agreed to exchange the Island Tiran. That exchange involves Israel. Iran is challenging anyone who would deal with the Israel, or as they call it, the Zionist Entity.

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France Terror Tip Line
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

French President Francois Hollande said yesterday that France has created a national hotline for tips and information about Islamic extremism and terror.

The hotline has already received 9,000 tips.

Not all the tips are real, actionable intel - but the sheer number tells an important story. It tells us that the French are worried and that they are no longer playing the role of uninterested bystander and instead, telling national authorities if something appears out of place or unusual.

France has been stunned by terror. They sit in the epicenter of Islamic attacks.

At first it was unclear how the French people would respond. In the past, after the dust settled, and after the protests, people just picked up their same old habits and ways.

Now it seems that French citizenry is still shaken and their lives have been changed. Now the French, or at least the 9,000 people who contacted the hotline, are stepping forward to say that they want to help stop the scourge that has been attacking their country.

The nation and its leaders must motivate the masses and turn this into a national teaching moment. Local leaders and normal folk need to understand that terrorist recruiters are as dangerous as the terrorists who blow themselves up.

Recruiters and the organizers must be stopped. That is the only way to truly halt the murderous campaign of ISIS - in France and around the globe.

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Abbas' Brother in Israeli Hospital
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

PA President Mahmoud Abbas' younger brother, Abu Louai, is in being treated in an Israeli hospital.

Abu Louai is 76 years old and suffers from cancer. He lives in Qatar. The PA press has not and probably will not publish this information - neither will the rest of the Arabic press.

The decision by the brother of the Palestinian president to enter an
Israeli hospital is not surprising. He is just one of many

Palestinian elite and their family members, including family members of Hamas leaders, who have entered Israeli hospitals to get help and to have their lives saved by Israeli medical teams.

It seems like the height of hypocrisy.

Israeli health care is arguably one of the best in the world. And when it comes to the life and death of loved ones the leadership of the arch enemies of Israel, or of those who are trying to pressure Israel at the UN, in the international court and around the world, will "use" Israel.

Unfortunately these leaders hide the truth from the masses. The reality is that, if there were peace, Israeli knowledge, technology and health care could easily be shared with Palestinians.

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Why Palestinian Terror is Down
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a significant drop in Palestinian terror attacks over the past few weeks.

It is too early to say that the six month long wave of terror is over, but what I can say is that a slew of new techniques and activities undertaken by various groups have been at work and they are, now, coming together and seem to be effective.

First and most important, Israeli military leadership has conducted a series of sit-downs with Arab village leadership. Not threats, real sit downs. The price of the terror is clear to the leadership - but never the less, the IDF decided to give incentives to stop it. They started building soccer fields and parking lots and opening up new entrances to the villages.

In response, local Arab leaders spoke out against violence. They gathered their communities together and said that the violence is hurting them - not helping them.

It also became clear that much of the violence was incited via internet. The IDF cyber squad gave over info to IDF force commanders and they arrested those people who were posting the incitement. If there was not enough evidence to arrest the person, the IDF paid the hosts a visit.

The IDF has been very vigilant and continues to prevent attacks before they happen. Sometimes attacks are aborted and sometimes terrorists are stopped on their way to perpetrate their attacks.

There have also been changes in procedure to make certain that people cannot walk through certain roadblocks.

The Palestinian Security Services is also arresting terrorists. They have confiscated many weapons and PA police have made it clear that they are clamping down on acts of violence and terror. They are even going into schools and instruct children not to plan or perpetrate attacks. They are searching backpacks and school bags.

These and many other tactics are making a big difference.

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Gaza Tunnels Collapse
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Another tunnel collapsed in Gaza. Three people were killed.

The news was reported on Channel 2 News in Israel, despite a media blackout by Hamas. Hamas does not want information to be given out about neither the deaths nor the collapsed tunnel.

A few hours before the tunnel collapse, the Egyptians blew up a tunnel that they found on their side of the border.

All of this tunnel activity took place in the area of Rafah. Rafah is a city that sits half in Egypt and half in Gaza.
This is the 11th tunnel to collapse since February.

From the point of view of Hamas the tunnels are a huge operation that
lends them pride and power.

Hamas employs over 1,000 people in various digging operations across Gaza. Tunnels used to be primarily for smuggling and the smugglers invested a lot of money and care in the construction of their tunnels. But the days of private enterprise are long gone.

Today Hamas digs and controls all the tunnels and it is a great source of revenue - they both charge for passage through the tunnels and tax everything that passes through the tunnels.

Tunnels are a major component of the Hamas economy. Collapsed tunnels cannot fill their coffers.

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PA Arrests Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority Security (ISA) arrested 3 terrorists from Hebron on Saturday.

The combination of this announcement and these arrests are intended to signal a renewed sense of cooperation between the PA and Israel.
The PA was under tremendous pressure to step up and try to stop the wave of terror against Israelis that has been so commonplace and was even supported by PA leadership.

This arrest came with a further announcement explaining that recently PA security services have prevented 200 attacks and arrested 100 people and confiscated numerous weapons.

It is not clear that this is a new era of cooperation. But it certainly is an important symbol. Hamas responded by condemning the arrests and called the PA, its security forces and even its leadership "collaborators".

Israel responded to the ISA announcement saying that, as of late, there has been a huge drop in terror attacks. The prime minister is being cautiously optimistic about this ... but regardless - this is a very good sign, even if it is only temporary.

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Straits of Tiran Now in Saudi Control
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement resolving a maritime border dispute that has lasted since 1906. This agreement will have huge implications for the safety of Israel and its shipping
trade.

Here's a quick history and geography lesson:
In 1906 the Ottomans and the British demarcated two islands Tiran and Sanafir, which we refer to now simply as the Straits of Tiran, to be under the control of Egypt.

In 1967 Egypt closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli ships. The Straits of Tiran are at the mouth of the Gulf of Aqaba which leads up to Eilat, one of Israel's largest sea ports. The Straits are between Egypt on the west and Saudi Arabia on the east.

When Egypt shut the Straits they were committing an act of war. That act of war precipitated the strike which, after escalating, is now called The Six Day War or The '67 War.

Saudi Arabia gave over control of the Straits of Tiran to Egypt in 1950. It became part of a larger plan to cripple Israel and, in 1967, the Arab League supported the closure.

After the Six Day War, Israel took charge of the islands, aka the Straits, to ensure free movement for Israeli shipping. After the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt were singed, Israel returned the Straits to Egypt.

Now that the islands of the Straits of Tiran fall into the hands of Saudi Arabia the obvious question arises: Will the status quo continue?

At this point I am almost certain that the status quo will continue as is.

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Palestinians Made A Memorial Garden for Terrorists in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel destroyed a memorial garden yesterday in Jerusalem. The garden was a memorial to 47 terrorists killed in the act of terrorism.

The garden was the undertaking of local Palestinians. A tree had been planted for each terrorist and a large placard-sized picture of each terrorist was placed in the garden.

The garden was located in the community of Raz al Amud, also known as Maalei Hazeitim, which abuts the Cemetery of the Mount of Olives. The garden was on Jerusalem public property.

The Jerusalem police and the Israeli army uprooted the trees and destroyed the pictures.

There is no doubt that Israel was 100% correct in tearing down a memorial that glorified acts of terror and the men and women who perpetrate terror. There is no way that Jerusalem could sanction attitude and mind think.

The biggest issue is that the Palestinians do honor terrorists. They build memorials for terrorists, name stadiums after terrorists and set them up as role models and heroes.

That is nor the Israeli way.

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BDS Isn't Scarying these Musicians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

BDS has been pressuring musicians not to come to Israel. Even more
horrific is the pressure BDS is applying to force those musicians who have already scheduled concerts in Israel to cancel their trips.

And yet, despite the pressure, this summer's music schedule is very impressive. Here is just a short list.

Julio Iglesias will perform in Israel on May 7th.
Deep Purple will perform on May 22nd.
Michael Jackson's Thriller will be performed May 19 - 24.
Elton John will perform on May 26th.
Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys is performing on June 8th.
Alice Cooper will perform on June 16th.
Duran Duran is coming in June and Bruce Springsteen is coming to Israel in July.
Beyonce is performing on August 3rd.
Dire Straits will be in Israel in September.
On March 1st Pat Boone performed in Israel.

This is simply a partial list of names on the list ... They are the performers I know best. Groups like Die Antwoord, Symphony X and

Realestate are also coming to Israel to perform. I assume that these groups are very popular because of the price of their tickets and the venue of their concerts.

The beat goes on - despite BDS!

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US & Israel Cooperate of Cyber Security
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The United States and Israel are cooperating on cyber security, especially as it refers to energy.

US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz is in Israel. He said that the US and Israel must coordinate and cooperate on energy issues even more than they have in the past because “a very large fraction of cyber attacks involves the energy sector and that's a recent experience.”

He went on to say that the United States must learn from Israel about cyber security especially in protecting government operations and agencies.

The visit was not without both some humor and some tension. Moniz was the point man for the nuclear deal. He was the main US expert and the most important voice in the ear of US President Obama. Moniz was the voice that asserted that the deal was good.

His counterpart in Israel, Yuval Steinitz, reminded Moniz of the issues that they were deep in conflict over last year. Moniz quipped back laughing that Iranians chanting "Death to Israel" are matched by their calls for "Death to America".

The United States and Israel signed two agreements about energy. The first agreement is about cooperation on issues related to natural gas, electricity, energy and cyber security. The second agreement is to provide scholarships for Israeli post-docs to study and work at institutions in the United States that do energy-related work.

Seems like a win-win for both nations.


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Cyber Terror Links w Brussels and Paris
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

A cyber tech firm that specializes in cyber security and hails from Israel discovered a link between cyber terror attacks and murderous terror attacks.

Cytegic based their studies on the terror attacks that rocked Brussels and Paris.

Not surprisingly, they discovered that after the terror attacks there was a significant increase in cyber attacks. According to Cytegic most of those cyber strikes were DOS attacks. A DOS attack is an attack in which the cyber terrorist attacks by sending a deluge of emails that forces the site to crash. Other forms of attacks that they discovered included posting pictures and phishing and social engineering hacks. In the end, they are pretty low level hacks.

Low level hacks or not - many people, including the anarchist group called Anonymous, are trying to fight the ISIS hacks.

Cytegic also discovered that there was a slight dip in terror attacks before the murderous attacks in Paris and Brussels.

The most important point in the Cytegic findings is that there is a short lag time between the physical attack and the computer attacks.

In that break, targets - including countries, agencies, corporations and individuals have a window which can be used to bolster their defenses.

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Iran Has Water Shortage
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran will face a serious water crisis this summer. The numbers are frightening. And it appears as if it is too late to turn the situation around.

The numbers I have seen estimate that as many as 37 million people will suffer from dehydration in Iran this summer. That is just under 50% of the country.

The crisis is totally man made. And while it is too late for the summer of 2016, future crises can be solved by Iranian leadership.
Iran's average water consumption is almost twice as large as the world average. Iranians totally misuse their water - rain water, ground water and river water.

Agriculture uses 93% of Iran's water. That is crazy and it should be cut in half. Iranians need to filter and recycle water. As a society they also need to stop wasting water. When farmers drop their water usage, their crop size will plummet.

From experience in Israel they should learn to plug industrial leaks. That is where most water is wasted - water linkages and open pipes. Not in homes, but all over the country.

If Iran's leaders can teach their people to be more water responsible and if they can plug the leaks and reuse water after it is treated -- next year may be a much easier summer.

Unfortunately, there is very little that can be done in the next eight weeks to solve Iran's water problem.

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Pendulum Swings in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

For those who thought that the pendulum had swung and that Russia and Iran were helping Assad secure Syria by conquering strategic sites like Aleppo -- wrong.

Over the weekend, starting on Friday, al Qaeda's affiliate al Nusra has been taking back Aleppo. Al Nusra began their assault with three simultaneous car bombs and then they ambushed Syrian forces while they were on the move.

According to sources, dozens of Syrian forces were killed while only sixteen al Qaeda/al Nusra forces were killed in the fighting.
Syrian forces and their allies are now responding and trying to take back the areas that they lost on Friday and Saturday.

Al Nusra, with the help of other rebels, targeted some of the most strategic zones around Aleppo.

The most important element to understand is that the fight continues - section by section, city by city, neighborhood by neighborhood. Control of strategic locations often swings back and forth. Control is wrestled from one group and then from another.

This conflict is far from over.

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Iran Knows There's No Punishment
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On March 8th and 9th Iran test launched Shahab -3 and Qadr -1
missiles.

The United States, France, Great Briton and Germany all said that the test launches were a violation of the nuke deal and that sanctions should be re-imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council.

They said that the missiles are "inherently capable of delivering nuclear warheads." That status means that the test launches violate both the agreement and Security Council Resolution #2231. Iran claims that these missiles do not and cannot carry nuclear warheads.
Iran has a plan.

The Security Council is meeting today, Friday, April 1st, to discuss the matter.

Iran knows that despite the debate in the Security Council sanctions will not be imposed and no significant punishment will emerge. Here is the comment made by Iran's defense minister, General Hossein Dehghan: "I am certain that the Security Council and the United Nations will not respond as our actions are neither a breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the July nuclear deal) nor are they against Resolution 2231."

Why is he so sure?
Because Russia is against imposing new sanctions on Iran.

The Russians have been saying for months that they will not tolerate new sanctions against Iran. Russia will veto any move to sanction. They are permanent members of the Security Council and all permanent members have a veto.

Iran has, once again, found the back door they need to accomplish exactly what they want.


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Russia Arrests ISIS Recruiters
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia arrested twenty ISIS recruiters yesterday in Moscow. Russian news agency RIA broke the story. The arrests came as the result of a joint operation between the police and the FSB, the Federal Security Service.

Here is the quote. "During a joint operation of the FSB (Federal Security Service) and the police, around twenty people suspected of connections to ISIS (Islamic State) were arrested."

ISIS was recruiting young Moscovites. Many of those arrested for joining the terrorist organization originally came from Uzbekistan which is a former Soviet Republic.

There were many things that were confiscated in the operation. The ISIS recruiters had an entire collection of fake ids, especially fake Turkish driver's licenses. They were clearly forging materials to help the recruits make their way into Turkey and from there into Syria.

Russia knows that they are high on the ISIS target list. And the Russians are responding by increasing security and by doing everything they can to try and locate the ISIS organizers that might be planning attacks.

This is just one example of Russia's private war against ISIS in their country.


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Leave Turkey Now!
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 30, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday Israel issued a travel warning. Do not travel to Turkey and if you are in Turkey, leave immediately.

On Tuesday the United States issued an evacuation order for all families and non -essential personnel to immediately leave southern Turkey. The US order also said that those remaining in Turkey may not travel outside the compounds.

Southern Turkey is more than simply dangerous. It is where ISIS transfers people and goods - including produce and including oil.

This is where it would be easy for ISIS to attack. Even easier than when they attacked in downtown Istanbul a few weeks ago killing three Israelis.

ISIS knows the area and they can easily fit in. It is very hard to protect people when the enemy is so familiar and so conversant with the lay of the land.

The best response is to get out.

Israelis and Americans are easy targets. Turkey must begin to assert control over their southern regions and oust ISIS. They must begin the process now.


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Kuwait Deports 60 Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait is deporting 60 Hezbollah members. Their residency permits have been withdrawn because they are members of a terrorist organization.

Since last month's decision by the Arab League and the GCC (the Gulf Cooperation Council) to label Hezbollah a terrorist group, member countries have been stepping up their pressure on Hezbollah.

The decision by the Arab League and in the GCC was not due to a new vision of the world nor to a recognition of Western concepts of terror. The decision was made because Hezbollah, like Iran, is supporting and defending Assad in Syria. This decision was split straight down the Shiite Sunni rift.

Hezbollah is a Shiite group sponsored by Iran and Assad is part of the Allawites a break-off from Shiite tradition. They are pitted against the Sunnis.

The GCC is all Sunni and the Arab League is mostly Sunni. The only voices who voted against the declaration to label Hezbollah a terror organization were Lebanon and Iraq.

Once you get your bearings and figure out who is who, it all starts to makes sense.

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Hamas Egypt Summit #2
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The Hamas delegation departed for Egypt on Sunday. A second round of Hamas / Egyptian talks will begin today.

Hamas has done their prep work for this second round of talks. They have consulted with Qatar about significant details that caused the breakdown of the first round of talks.

The major stumbling block during round one was Hamas' involvement in and admission of knowledge about the assassination of the national prosecutor of Egypt.

I expect that Hamas will come forward with the name of the group and people who were involved in the assassination. I also expect that those involved are, by now, long gone and far away.

I expect Egypt will demand that they be handed over. Hamas will not comply and the talks will break down again.

Typical.

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Russia Helps Syria Attack ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Remember that announcement Russia made about withdrawing from Syria? Remember that I called it a re-adjustment and not a withdrawal?

My point was proven yesterday...

Syrian forces are now retaking the city of Palmyra. ISIS took Palmyra last May and destroyed its centuries-old Roman archeological remains. The Syrians have control over three major neighborhoods and continue to wrestle the city from ISIS.

Syrian forces are not alone in this battle. The Russians are allowing the Syrians to fight ISIS and giving them air support.
Russia fighter jets flew 40 sorties and hit 150 targets killing over
100 ISIS fighters.

This is the new Russian status in Syria.

Russia has not and will not withdraw from Syria. Instead, they are moving into the position of helping the Syrians fight ISIS by giving Syrian forces the cover they need to force ISIS out of their positions.

Not what you'd call a withdrawal by any stretch of the imagination.

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ISIS is Taking Losses in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi forces are taking back the villages around ISIS controlled Mosul in northern Iraq.

The Iraqi forces are working together with the Peshmerga, also known as the Kurdish fighters, and are being aided by US and coalition air support. Progress in taking back these villages is slow.

Today is the second day of the offensive and they have successfully taken back three villages. They are preparing to move against several more.

The reason the offensive is going slowly is because ISIS has booby trapped the roads and many of the buildings. Clearing mines is a slow process.

The fighting is only sporadic. There do not seem to be a lot of ISIS fighters in these villages.

Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq with over two million people. The villages around Mosul are essentially suburbs. This the first stage in isolating and attacking Mosul.

I would expect the attacl against the big city of Mosul in the next few weeks.

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Israeli Tech Firm Hacking the iPhone for FBI
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

YNET news reports that an Israeli company named Cellebrite is the third party helping the FBI crack the encryption on the iPhone 5C that belonged to one of the San Bernardino terrorists, the phone that Apple is refusing to unlock even after federal judges demand their help.

There has been much discussion about how to break the codes on cell phones and chat forums are filled with ideas.

Cellebrite, which is headquartered in Petah Tikva, has been on contract to the FBI and the Justice department since 2013. One of services they provide is cracking encryption codes by means of software that they have developed.

Cellebrite has also been known to strong arm and break individual codes. Another part of their business is data backup and diagnostics. They can run retrieving programs on 15,000 different cell phone models.

The Israeli company provides their service to over 90 countries. Most of their subscribers are intelligence agencies, security agencies, armies and governments. The company has been able to help solve crimes perpetrated around the world by getting information off phones that have, supposedly, been wiped clean.


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Mistakes in Belgium
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The terror in Belgium is a terrible tragedy. It is a terrible tragedy that could have been avoided.

The United States had announced that they had information of an impending attack - but nothing specific. The Belgians had the same info. I had the same info. It was clear earlier in the week, after the Belgians and the French had captured the leader of the Paris attacks, that there were plans to attack Belgian and French sites.

Salah Abdeslam told his interrogators, just days ago, that he had several ISIS terror cells in place and poised to attack.

Knowing that info and not increasing security at Brussels' main train station and airport is irresponsible.

Ever since the 1970's, when Palestinian terrorists attacked Israeli tourists in Brussels and hijacked planes, Israel gave Belgium important tactical plans to beef up security. Had those plans been in place it is unlikely that yesterday's attack would have been successful.

The basic concept of security at these sites so beloved by terrorists is called the layered approach. A defense system is set up to catch unusual threats and what is not caught in the outermost layer is caught by a layer within. It is not good enough to simply have a security screening station for people with boarding passes as they go to their gates.

This was a huge failure by Belgian security and by those who determine threats to their nation. They should all resign.


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ISIS Attacks Secret US Base in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Firebase Bell is a secret US special-forces base in northern Iraq.
The US base came under rocket fire attack by ISIS on Monday. Two days earlier another rocket attack killed a US Marine.

Staff Sergeant Louis Cardin is the marine killed by the ISIS rocket that struck the base. The number of injured during the attack has not been released. We do know, however, that the company at the base is composed of less than 200 soldiers.

ISIS discovered the US base and figured that they could hit it from a distance by launching rockets into the camp.

That maneuver was so successful that ISIS returned two days later and did it again. This is a major flaw in US security.

ISIS rocket launchers and shoulder launched multi-purpose assault weapons (SMAW) are easy to carry - but the United States needs to prevent ISIS from getting close enough to shoot at their base.

If the United States does not make this correction ISIS, will continue to shoot at them, day after day, damaging the base and putting the lives of the military stationed at Firebase Bell at risk.

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Time Is Shamed into Correcting Story
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It happened in October. Two Palestinians terrorists murdered three
Israelis. One of the terrorists, Bahaa Allyan, was a graphic designer.

It took Time Magazine 5 months and much pressure and international shame before they finally corrected the dots in this story.

Originally, on October 15th, Time Magazine ran a story entitled "The Desperation Driving Young Palestinians to Violence," which simply referred to Bahaa Allyan as "a graphic designer" who "was killed by Israeli security forces after allegedly trying to carry out an attack in Jerusalem."

The piece totally ignored the fact that the graphic designer was a mass murderer and that he was killed after killing three Israelis and would have, if permitted, killed many more.

Allyan and his accomplice overtook a bus in Jerusalem. They stabbed and shot and continued to shoot and stab. The terrorist (aka graphic artist) locked the bus door not letting anyone escape and preventing defense teams from boarding.

The terrorist was killed when an Israeli anti-terror team shot him from outside the bus.

The important part is not that he was a graphic artist ... NO! He murdered three innocent people by taking over a public bus in Jerusalem.

Only now, 5 months later after being shamed into clarifying their original story Time Magazine finally made a correction - one that fell far short of an apology. In Time's words, they added a component to the website and the story "to give a fuller account of the attack."

Think about it - 5 months need to pass to get to the truth.


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Why Sanders is Skipping AIAPC
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Bernie Sanders made a very big mistake. Deciding not to speak at the 18,000 strong AIPAC Conference on Monday in Washington DC shows that Sanders is not as pro-Israel as he says he is.

All the other candidates will be speaking on Monday. Hillary Clinton will present in the morning and the three republican candidates will take the stage and deliver their own messages in the evening.

Max Blumenthal, a rabidly anti-Israel writer, created a petition for Sanders not to attend the AIPAC Conference and 5,000 people signed it. Blumenthal is the son of Sidney Blumenthal who is one of Hillary Clinton's closest confidants.

Sanders said that he is too busy campaigning. Well - so are all the other candidates. He said that the will be on the west coast and cannot make it back to the east coast. Well - the conference is several days long.

Sanders asked to remotely speak, but AIPAC policy is no remotes except for the Prime Minister of Israel. Remotes just do not work well. Sanders suggested that the conference distribute the speech he would have given. He told AIPAC that the text of the speech should be ready by Monday.

Bernie Sanders has a problem. Many of his supporters are vehement critics of Israel and going to the AIPAC conference would alienate his base.

Israel might not be as important an agenda item to Sanders as he says it is. With Sanders, what you see is, very often, what you get. This is probably no exception.

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Iran-Turkey Summit
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif is visiting Turkey today, Saturday.

This is a follow up visit.

Earlier in March, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Iran.

Relations between Turkey and Iran are strained - and Turkey needs those relations to improve.

Turkey and Iran each back opposing sides in Syria, but they are united against the Kurds and Kurdish independence.

Iran and Turkey are not natural allies. There is so much that separates them. But at this point they are united against Western influences - specifically Russian and US influences in the region.
The Turkish-Russian conflict has become a big issue in the region and it is not going away.

It is possible that, with these visits, Iran might just be able to mollify the tension with Iran. We need to watch carefully and monitor what happens.

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British Kids Joining Terror Groups
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The British police have announced that over the past year they have arrested a record number of children under the age of 18 for terror. The number they have given is -16 !

They have also arrested 45 women for terror - another dramatic increase over the previous year.

All in all, there were 280 terrorism-related arrests in England last year.

The numbers are actually very small considering how many terror cells must be active in the entire country and how many kids are on the internet.

Many more than 16 kids under 18 have gone and joined ISIS by traveling to Turkey and crossing the border into Syria.
Something is wrong with these numbers.

There must be thousands of youth engaging in conspiracies that include planning and plotting terror attacks. Most are learning and reading and watching all the time. Some are actually buying plane tickets and joining terror groups.

Who knows how many have returned and are recruiting new, potential terrorists.

The British police are not sharing the real numbers. Why?

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Iraqi Forces Free Yazidi Women
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Iraqi forces conducted a raid into ISIS controlled territory and freed Yazidi women.

During the summer of 2014 ISIS captured 5,000 Yazidi women and turned them into sex slaves for their forces. Over the past year about, 2,000 of the women have escaped.

The exact numbers that were freed was not made public in the announcement that was issued by the Iraqi defense ministry. The covert operation was extremely important.

ISIS considers Yazidis to be Satan worshipers because their religion is a combination of Islam, Christianity and Zoroastrianism.

Many in the region thought that there was no possibility of either freeing any of the captives or of striking deep in the heart of ISIS controlled areas. This is a massive shot in the arm for local Iraqi forces - it is a dramatic success for good against evil.

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Hamas - Egypt Summit Fails
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and Egypt held a summit in Cairo yesterday. Their agenda was to iron out differences and, hopefully, start working together.

The summit failed miserably.

Each side came with its own agenda and neither side would budge.
Egypt wanted Hamas to accept responsibility and help find the people who assassinated their Prosecutor General, Hisham Barakat.

It is clear to Egypt that the assassins were trained by Hamas and they want to bring the perpetrators to justice. Hamas offered small gestures but no real help.

Egypt also wants Hamas to protect the border.

Hamas, on the other hand, wants nothing to do with protecting the border and is accepting no responsibility for the assassination.

Hamas wants intelligence cooperation. They want to know what Egypt knows about terror groups and about goings-on in the region, especially what's going on with Israel.

Egypt is not interested in that kind of cooperation.

There is very little hope that the government of al Sisi in Egypt will ever, actually, make peace with Hamas.

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Saudis Looking for a Loan!
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

We live in a strange world.

Word is that Saudi Arabia is applying for an $8 billion loan from international banks.

We all know that the price of oil has dropped over the past 18 months - dropped by 60% to 70%. But Saudi Arabia is still making money - a lot of money, just not the amount their economic forecasters had projected and budgeted for.

Consider that over the past decade the Saudis have amassed $600 billion in surplus. But last year they ran a $100 billion deficit.

Now they need to make up the deficit.

Saudi Arabia has already started selling domestic bonds, but that will not be enough. Once they get their $8 billion loan, they will start selling international bonds which will allow people to invest in their national energy (oil and gas) resources.

There are also rumors that Saudi Arabia may sell off Aramco, which is the Saudi Arabia oil company, or parts of Aramco. It is their greatest national asset. Perhaps they will sell off part of the company, perhaps they will sell bonds in the company. It is, however, more likely that the Saudis will take Aramco profits and invest them aggressively.

Oil is now hovering between $38 and $40 per barrel. The situation is far improved today than it was over end of January and the entire month of February. The price of oil is slowly creeping up. But Saudi Arabia needs the cash now.

This crisis has taken a big chunk out of Saudi power and Saudi influence. It is the wrong time for Saudi Arabia to feel the pinch of a reduced cash flow. A reduced cash flow will result in a reduced Saudi influence and imprint - not what the world needs right now as Iran and Russia are increasing their respective roles.

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Israeli Arabs in ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

An Israeli Arab was killed by the United States in Syria. He was fighting for ISIS and was killed as part of a US aerial attack against ISIS.

According to Israeli sources about 50 Israeli Arabs have gone to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS. It is hard to imagine why people from Minneapolis or London join ISIS. But why would they leave Israel and join ISIS -- Israel says that 7 of the 50 have been killed fighting.

Israel is prosecuting the family members still living in Israel who are supporting their siblings and/or children who left Israel and are in Syria and Iraq fighting for ISIS. On Sunday an Israeli court indicted the brother of an Israeli Arab who transferred $1500 to his brother now fighting alongside ISIS. According to the indictment the
Israeli Arab transferred three separate $500 gifts to his brother.

Israeli Arabs are mesmerized by the same videos that convince young people across the world to join ISIS. Many "experts" have claimed that these young people are brainwashed in mosques. A lot of brainwashing may be going on in mosques, but rest assured that mosques in Israel are not preaching and suggesting that people go and join ISIS.

The internet is the great equalizer in terms of ISIS recruitment. Internet sites suggest going to on Turkey and then crossing over the southern border into Syria.

Getting to Turkey is very easy for Israelis. Upon arrival, most of them are picked up by handlers and couriers at the airport and then shuttled to a safe house where plans are made to bring them across the border at the perfect and safest time. These times change by the moment.

Once inside Syria the new recruits head to their assigned positions.
There is always a training assessment and training period. Each volunteer comes with different skills. Each volunteer is evaluated and assigned a role which will best meet the needs of ISIS throughout their Islamic State.

It is a streamlined procedure. ISIS has their recruitment process down to a science.

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Another Shift in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

To best understand extended conflicts in the Middle East it is important that we look at momentum and at shifts in momentum.

Of late, it looked like ISIS and al Qaeda backed groups were being beaten back and that Russian, Iranian and US forces and air power have finally started to take a toll on them.

But there are always setbacks and these setbacks can cause the momentum to shift. Some shifts can have a huge impact on the overall conflict.

Last night, on Saturday March 12th, al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra attacked and captured several Free Syrian Army bases in the North East. Dozens of prisoners were taken.

These Free Syrian Army fighters were part of the 13th Division. Al Nusra said that they were responding to attacks against them by the 13th Division.

The Free Syrian Army fighters were US-trained and US-armed.

Yes, just as you guessed. Yet again, modern, advanced, US weapons were captured and are now in the hands of al Qaeda. Some of these weapons include sophisticated anti-tank missiles.

The momentum has shifted. This is not a good sign.

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Abbas Rejects US Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

US Vice President Joe Biden met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday in Ramallah.

The US VP offered Abbas a bare bones deal to bring the Israelis and Palestinians together and create a peace deal. According to Palestinian sources the deal consisted of four simple points.
Abbas rejected the deal.

The meeting between Abbas and Biden lasted over two hours but Abbas thought that the deal would only result in a presidential letter or a UN Security Council resolution. Abbas thought that it would not change the situation on the ground.

Biden's four points were:
1- East Jerusalem is the capital of the Palestinian State
2- Building in the West bank and in East Jerusalem ends
3- Accept Israel as a Jewish State
4- Disavow the Palestinian right of return

Each side needed to compromise on two items. It would be the foundation of a long term agreement --- of a Palestinian state.

Once again, Abbas chose rejection over acceptance. The reason should be obvious - Mahmoud Abbas does not, cannot, will not, compromise.

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Iran Launches Another 2 Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran launched two ballistic missiles at a target that was 870 miles (1400 kilometers) away.

Supposedly, on the rockets was a message written in Hebrew for Israel and the world to see. The words read "Israel must be wiped out."

The Iranian Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guard General Salami said that the launch was dedicated to the Palestinians, the Lebanese, the Syrians, the Iraqis and all oppressed Muslims around the world.

US Vice President Joe Biden who is on a visit to Israel right now said that the launch of these ballistic missiles is a violation of the agreements with Iran and it will be investigated.

Hillary Clinton said that this act was a serious violation and Iran needs to know that. She said: "Iran should face sanctions for these activities and the international community must demonstrate that Iran's threats toward Israel will not be tolerated."

White House Spokesman Josh Earnest said that he expects more launches. He said that the US is dealing with the Iran and added: "We will continue to redouble our efforts with our allies and partners in the region to try to limit Iran's ability to continue to develop their missile program."

The most important point here is that the flight distance from Tehran to Tel Aviv is 988 miles. If these missiles are placed between Teheran and the border of Iran and Iraq, they could easily target any location within Israel. Tehran is only about 450 miles from the border with Iraq - the distances are much shorter than one would think and this medium range rocket can just make it.

It is a very dangerous scenario. The situation is getting worse.

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Real Jew Hatred
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism is becoming institutionalized.
One of the largest saving banks in all of Germany, Sparkesse Bank, refused to allow an Israeli to open an account in a Berlin branch.

After taking Yakir Avraham's Israeli passport to another room, the teller returned and said: "I'm very sorry, but we cannot open up a bank account for you here. We aren't allowed to open accounts for citizens of countries under embargo."

We can assume that the teller was not alone in the room, or that he spoke to someone on the phone, sent an email or checked via computer. It is unimaginable that the teller would make this decision alone and use the nomenclature "citizens of countries under embargo."

The Israeli contacted YNET, an Israeli media outlet connected to Yediot Ahronot. YNET called the bank. The bank conducted an investigation.

This is the statement issued by Sparkesse Bank: "It's clear that this isn't our business policy. This is an unfortunate mistake made by a young colleague who is still in training, and who didn't know how to deal with the situation properly. She deeply apologizes for the mistake. We hope that Mr. Avraham accepts our explanation and apology."

The apology is not relevant. Avraham can accept or reject it. Denying an Israeli a bank account is against the law in Germany just as it is against the law in the EU. And the language used by the teller explaining her actions is a racist act.

The bank, the teller, and any supervisor who approved the initial refusal to open an account for an Israeli passport holder must be charged and tried for racist anti-Semitic behavior. The German state prosecutor must be alerted. This act must be investigated and charges must be proffered.

This is no small act. This was not a small mistake. This is rabid anti-Semitism.

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Expect More From ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Western intelligence is saying that we should expect ISIS to attempt to perpetrate large spectacular attacks against Western targets. The intel is talking about attacks like the Paris attack of last year that claimed the lives of 130 people.

In London, the Assistant Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley, is reporting that ISIS is broadening their threat. "You see a terrorist group that has big ambitions for enormous and spectacular attacks, not just the types that we've seen foiled to date."

At the same time the West, and especially the United States, is stepping up the intensity of their attack against ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

A Kurdish media outlet reported that the United States has nearly completed construction on two airports with extensive airstrips for military and commercial planes. The airports are in Kurdish areas of Syria. These new airfields will allow the US better access to the region. Most importantly it will put US forces close by and they will be essential in securing the airstrips.

This is war. ISIS is entrenched. They will take prisoners, but they prefer deaths.

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Hezbollah Lashed Out at Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said that the plans of the Saudis will fail. Saudi Arabia led the Arab League in declaring that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization.

On Sunday, Nasrallah lashed out at the Saudis. He said that the motivation behind the Saudi Arab / Arab League declaration was the normalization of relations with Israel.

In reality, the announcement was a result of the Sunni Shiite conflict taking place in Syria where the Saudis back the rebels and Hezbollah and Iran back Assad.

During the funeral of the Hezbollah commanders who were killed this week Nasrallah asserted that: "The reactions in the Arab world mostly support rejection and this is different than the position presented by some Arab regimes, mainly in the Gulf."

Nasrallah offered a psychological explanation for the Arab League announcement. Nasrallah said, "He who fails gets angry and the one who gets angry makes decisions that vent his rage and frustration and looks for scapegoats, and this time Hezbollah and Lebanon became the scapegoats."

We must not forget that there are some very serious problems facing Arabs and the Arab world is not at all united. When left to their own devices they are divisive, dismissive of each other and downright cantankerous.

And that makes it very hard for the region to move forward and achieve any of their stated goals.

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Russia Suspends Arms Deal to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has cancelled the further delivery of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile to Iran.

This important news was reported in a Kuwaiti paper.

The reason given for the cancellation is that Russian President Putin says that Iran violated their agreement when he transferred high tech weapons to Hezbollah. The weapons he is referring to are SA - 22 surface-to-air missiles.

The intel was given to Putin by Israel. It was irrefutable proof that, on multiple occasions, Iran has transferred weapons to Hezbollah.

In addition, Russian pilots flying across Syria and Lebanon have reported that they detected highly sophisticated radar and missile systems operating on the ground.

Iran and Russia signed an $800 million arms deal in 2007 for the S-300 but the deal was suspended due to the UN sanctions. The deal was resumed when sanctions were lifted. Now Putin has, once again, suspended it.

Major components for four S-300 missiles have already been delivered to Iran. The radar system has almost totally been assembled in Iran. But there are still significant components that need to be delivered. Without those elements the S-300 is incomplete and not usable.

This is very good news.

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Visiting Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

United States chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is visiting Israel. General Joseph Dunford is in Israel meeting with his counterparts, sharing ideas and strategies and, most importantly, making certain that both the United States and Israel are on the same diplomatic page.

Israel and the US share important goals in the Middle East. Their most essential goals are defeating extremism and maintaining stability. To that end they are sharing info and intel.

These are never simple objectives - and they are made even more difficult given the current situation.

The United States has an added agenda item for this trip. Dunford is there to make certain Israel does not act rashly against Iran or against any other target.

Next week US Vice President Joseph Biden will visit Israel.

Biden's objective will be the same as Dunford's objective. The United States wants to make doubly certain that Israel realizes that they are united in their goals, that they are in this together.

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Turks Want Drones from Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey wants to resume diplomatic relations with Israel. The Turks are insisting that in order to move forward they get Israeli weapons - especially drones and spare parts.

According to a report in a Kuwaiti newspaper, a special envoy was dispatched to Israel to negotiate this deal.

Israel will not provide the weapons unless they get absolute confirmation that the drones and other materials will not be used against the Kurds.

Moshe Yaalon, Israel's defense minister, actually said that he is not hopeful that Israel and Turkey will come to an agreement because Turkey continues to fund ISIS.

He said "I am not sure if we can arrive to an agreement" if they continue funding these extremist organizations." Yaalon also said. "They must comply with the terms of our agreement so that we can overcome these obstacles."

Two weeks ago Yaalon made a public statement condemning Turkey for buying oil from ISIS.

There is no way that Israel can transfer weapons including drones if Turkey is supporting ISIS.

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ISIS Executes ISIS Members
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 2, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has executed eight of its own members.

The eight ISIS members were all Danish, they were executed by ISIS in Raqqa.

These eight Danes were part of a larger Danish ISIS group that came from the Netherlands. The Danish government says that over 200 of their countrymen have made their way to the Middle East in order to join ISIS. They claim that most of these recruits originally came from Morocco. They also report that of the 200, at least 50 are women.

We do not normally think of The Netherlands as a hotbed of extremism but it is now becoming one - much like France and Belgium. Europe has changed. Nothing in Europe is the same as it was only a few years ago when it comes to terror and Muslim extremism.

In this case ISIS claims that the eight Danes were trying to desert. According to reports there was conflict between the Danish ISIS recruits and ISIS intelligence forces from Iraq.

ISIS leadership sent an intermediary to resolve the problem.

The mediator was killed.

And so ISIS leadership ordered the arrest of these eight Dutch members. And then they were executed.

As this was happening, other Dutch members of ISIS in Raqqa arrested several non Dutch ISIS members and killed one of them. He was beaten to death during an interrogation.

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Iran Election Results
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The elections in Iran are over. Now we need to understand the results.

Simply put, moderates and reformers won big - and the hardliners lost. This is a huge success for President Rouhani.

In Teheran, the reformers and moderates won every single seat up for election. In the rural areas, the hardliners won more convincingly.

Some of the candidates who lost the election were the most publicly anti-reform and anti-Nuke Deal. For instance, after the deal was signed, Mehdi Kochakzdeh called Iran's foreign minister and chief negotiator, Javad Zarif, a traitor. Rouhollah Hosseinian said that he would bury all the nuclear negotiators under cement because they had capitulated to the P-5 + 1.

Fifteen of the sixteen seats that were up for election in the powerful 88 seat Assembly of Experts went to reformers. Two extremely important hardliners were ousted - the chairman of the Assembly, Mohammad Yazdi, lost his seat.

Maybe even more significant is that Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, an arch-conservative who was widely seen as the spiritual mentor to conservative former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also lost his seat on the Assembly of Experts.

So far it looks like reformers got 30% of the vote, hardliners 40%, independents who can go both ways got 17% and 13% will be runoffs which will take place in April.

Considering that in the last election for Majlis reformers only had 10% of the parliament, this is a huge move toward progress in Iran.

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Apple Invested $1.2 Bill in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday February, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The culture of Apple is even more top secret than that of the CIA - at least, that is what the Apple folks like to brag about.

Apple has invested over $1.2 billion in Israel over the past three years. They have opened two huge centers and employ 800 creative thinkers. 400 employees were recruited over the past two years.

Apple in Israel has developed new chips and new designs, especially on the security side. Steve Jobs loved the idea of working with Israeli brainpower and Tim Cook followed suit. Cook secretly visited Israel last February.

Secrecy is a value at Apple. Apple workers cannot even speak to other Apple employees outside their neighborhoods (the Apple term for their insulated work group) about the material they are working on.

Yes, Apple has purchased several Israeli companies for hundreds of millions of dollars, but that is nothing compared to the investment they are making in tech teams in Israel.

The head of the Israel component in Israel is in the inner circle of the innermost circle of Apple. Johnny Srouji is the senior vice president for hardware technology. There are only two other Apple hardware development centers in the world - one in Austin and one in Silicon Valley.

Apple is going to continue to recruit and grow in Israel. That's because Israel is the ideal place to develop people, ideas and of course, product.

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Saudis in a Cash Crunch
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia is in a cash crunch. The Saudis have burned through almost $100 billion of their cash reserves putting them way over budget. They are even thinking of selling shares of Aramco, their state owned oil company.

Aramco could be the most important company in the world right now. Selling part of it could be a huge risk, or, it could buy Saudi Arabia the time they need to prop themselves back up.

The Saudis are in this financial hole as a direct result of the drop in oil prices.

Given the oil market and given the nature of the Saudi oil reserves which stands at about 300 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia has only 5 to 7 years left as king of the mountain.

They need to get the price of oil back up and they need to start being more fiscally responsible.

Saudi Arabia is trying to do good in the region. Most of the $100 billion deficit that is now crippling them comes from their decision to protect the Arab world and keep it in relative check.

If the Saudis lose their power it is not they alone who will suffer. If the Saudis lose their position of power, it will result in a reshaping of the Middle East.

We, the West, have an interest in this, too.

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Elections in Iran Today
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the day. It is election day in Iran.

Two elections are taking place. One election is for the Majlis which is the Iranian parliament. One election is for the Assembly of Experts.

Today's elections could reshape Iran as we know it - but the deck has been stacked against change.

There are 6,200 candidates running for about 290 seats in the Majlis. The exact number will be determined in relation to the total number of voters.

There are 88 slots in the Assembly of Experts.

Every candidate running for either the Assembly or the Majlis must be vetted by a special committee. Most candidates running for the Assembly of Experts did not pass the vetting process. Only 1% of the 3,000 reformist candidates passed the process making it almost impossible for them to actually get elected.

The moderates have united with the reformers in the hope that, against all odds, if they are well organized, they can beat out the hardliners who will divide the vote.

The moderate/reform unity group has issued a list of suggested candidates. The list was published on social media and contained only 30 recommended candidates for the Majlis and 18 for the Assembly of Experts.

They need many more than 30 members of parliament. However, 30 is a modest expectation and can serve as an important bulwark for their platform.

It is possible that there are other underground lists. If there are, in the end the unity group could garner 146 seats and that would certainly change Iran.

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Iran Will Pay Terrorists $7000
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Iran once again showed their true colors.

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon held a press conference on Wednesday and announced that Iranians will not abandon the cause of the Palestinians.

And I quote: "Iran will not abandon the Palestinian people, who are faced with killing, theft, and expulsion." He continued: "The blood of the martyrs will bring the liberation of all Palestine from the sea to the river."

The ambassador announced that Iran will pay $7,000 to the family of every terrorist who dies while trying to perpetrate their act of terror. He also announced that Iran would pay $30,000 for every home that is demolished by Israel. "The decision firstly includes giving an amount worth $7,000 to every family of a martyr of the intifada in Jerusalem."

Iran is trying to exercise influence in the region. They want to be seen as the patron of all Islamic activity against outside, non-Islamic, influences. Do not be fooled - they are not building bridges with Sunnis and Shiites.

Plain and simple Iran wants influence and power and they want to be seen as the only Islamic authority that has challenged Western powers like the US and Israel.

Iran is quick to tell everyone who will listen that after all the challenges they have been put through, Iranians have emerged victorious. They encourage all other nations to follow them to grandeur and greatness.

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OPEC Will Not Cap Output
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

When you join a cartel you are making a commitment to live up to the agreements made by the cartel. OPEC is no exception.

So when a decision is made to cap oil production, like OPEC and Russia did last week, everyone else must fall in line.

There is, however, an incentive to cheat - an incentive to sell more and make more.

Last week's agreement was an attempt to stem the 18 month long downward price of oil. The agreement was to cap production at January's levels.

And then Iran decided to reject the agreement. Actually, Iran's oil minister called the entire plan ridiculous and a joke. Iran wants to produce more and more oil because sanctions against them have been lifted and they are not yet up to their full potential.

In other words, they need the money.

So does Russia, Venezuela, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. If Iran continues to produce more and more oil thereby lifting the ceiling, the price of oil will drop even more. And all those oil producers whose breakeven point is above $35 to $40 will be crushed.

And that, of course, includes Iran. Saudi Arabia's breakeven point for the production of one barrel of oil is $30. The Saudis can afford to make only $5 per barrel. They will make less, but in the long run, as other countries drop out, they will make more.

Now we know that the other OPEC members did not agree with the Russian deal on limiting the output of oil.
We will see what happens next.


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China's FM Visited Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I wrote about the Russian defense minister's visit to Iran. Today I want to tell you about the visit of Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, to Iran.

Iran wants Chinese tourists.

The Iranians just concluded a huge tourism fair and China was there for the second year. If Iran can woo Chinese tourists they can profit exponentially. Since the movement to lift sanctions began nearly a year ago, Iran has been investing in convincing Chinese leadership and tourists to come and visit.

Iran has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in improving their hotels and in creating a tourism infrastructure. They hope to lure 3.5% of the traveling Chinese tourists to Iran.

Several universities have started offering Chinese language courses.

But most importantly, the Iranians have streamline the visa process to less than 48 hours for a 6 day visa which can then be extended to 30 days upon arrival.

There are now direct flights between Iran and China three times a week. This will make vacation travel much easier and it will also make business trips much easier for the Chinese. An automatic outgrowth of the improved travel and the streamline visa process is that many more Chinese companies and investors will arrive in Iran to evaluate the potential risks and growth.

These are very good signs - for Iran.

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Russian Def Min Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Most of the international media reported that US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Jordan on Sunday.

Yet none of the media that I read even mentioned that on Sunday Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Teheran Iran.

This is very important news. Both Iran and Russia are allied in Syria and are propping up Assad and preventing ISIS, al Qaeda al Nusra and the rebels from ousting the Syrian dictator.
Thousands of Iranian advisors and revolutionary guards are on the ground in Syrian and in Iraq directly confronting ISIS, al Qaeda al Nusra.

The Russian defense minister needs to strategize and make certain that everyone is on the same page. Russia is aggressively bombing and they are weakening the ISIS and al Qaeda / Al Nusra stronghold and even passing those cities back to the Syrian army.

Russia's biggest obstacle right now is maintaining the newly freed regions. Iran and Russia need to figure out how to make certain that ISIS and al Qaeda and al Nusra do not retake these strategic areas. This is the reason for the recent horrific terror attacks in Damascus.

In order to understand what is happening out there we need to look beyond our limited US news coverage and see a bigger and broader picture of events.

With this larger and more informed view our own leaders will be able to make better decisions that take into account the many factors that are at stake. We need to take off our blinders and take in the big picture.

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Russia Ups the Stakes Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has once again upped its game in the Middle East.

The Russians are carrying out 100 bombing sorties per day. They are covering the entire region and succeeding in their game altering plan.

They have deployed their most sophisticated spy plane. The plane is called the TU-214R and it is the size of a commercial airliner. The TU-214 actually is a commercial plane, adding the letter R signifies that it has been modified and turned into a spy plane.

This plane can track communication - including US transmissions. It takes photo-like images with perfect clarity. It tracks hidden and camouflaged targets. It is outfitted with SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) which enables it to see things up close, deep inside targets. It has electro optical systems letting the Russians see all around the region.

This plane is the best and latest technology when it comes to spy equipment. Imagine US AWACS on steroids.

There is a caveat. The TU-214R is a slow moving plane. It needs protection. That protection comes from jets and ground support.

The deployment of these planes and this game changing move proves, once again, that Russia does what Russia wants to do. They know that the United States will not shoot their planes down.

This is a new level of interaction between the United States and Russia who have, up until now, kept the lines of communication open vis a vis air missions.

In a related issue - the United States asked Russia not to strike at its special forces that are on the ground now is Syria. The US is worried that Russian sorties will also target the US military.


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Israel Preps for Cyber Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:


Israel is merging eight of their cyber units and forming one, large, cyber defense division. This division will be responsible for the defense of Israel's infrastructure.

It was a good decision. In Israel today, the water, electric, communication systems and even airports are all vulnerable to cyber attacks.

This new division will be tasked with stopping the two greatest cyber threats facing Israel and all other nations.

One threat is the injection of malware that will, when commanded, cause extensive damage and harm and shuts down its target.

The other threat is the threat of spying, it is the threat of a malware program that allows the enemy to see inside deep and hidden secrets.

The threats are not merely theoretical. Because of one of these attacks Turkey recently lost electricity for 20 hours. The country was left the country powerless and in crisis. And in December, Ukraine was hit by an attack that left 33% of the country without electricity for 3 weeks. The airport in Kiev was shut down for 48 hours because they had no electricity.

Israel's systems are off line. They do not use public internet, instead, they use an internal communication system. That makes the system more secure - but not impenetrable.

There is no doubt that a huge attack is around the corner. It is just a question of when and where and how much ultimate damage will, or will not, be caused.


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Politicians Lie
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Politicians lie - especially when they deliver speeches and hope to convince the audience of their point of view. And once a politician, always a politician.

It came as no surprise when former President Bill Clinton said that the San Bernardino terrorists never visited the Middle East.

This is what he said:
"We got to have a strong defense, we got to have tough diplomacy. Also, in a world where the borders look more like nets than walls."

"Keep in mind, the people that perpetrated that travesty in San Bernardino had never been to the Middle East. They were converted over the social media."

WRONG!!!

Yes -- Tashfeen Malik was born, in Pakistan but she lived in Saudi Arabia for most of her life. Her husband and American born citizen, Syed Rizwan Farook, visited Saudi Arabia numerous times. He even went there for several weeks in 2013 as part of the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca.

We need to keep the facts straight.

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Iranian Elections in 10 Days
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Ten days from now, on February 26th, elections for the Iranian parliament and for the even more important Guardian Council will be held.

In a new move, Iran's reformers and moderates are merging to create a united list called "The Alliance of Reformers and Government Supporters." This group combines those who want reforms with Rouhani supporters - which explains the rather unusual choice of name.

The group is, of course, running against much more radical candidates and parties. Their hope is that by uniting they will succeed.

This election is seen as a referendum for or against Rouhani and his moderate stance - including the now infamous nuclear deal with the West. The most significant reason for Rouhani winning the previous election and becoming president of Iran is that the parties on the right of Iran's political spectrum split their vote. There are many more conservative hard liners parties than rightist parties in Iran, and during the last election the moderates were able to unite around Rouhani.

There are 290 seats in the parliament. 12,000 candidates were originally hoping to run but that number is now down to a mere 6,200 which includes 586 women.

The reformers are hoping that they will draw the young vote. 60% of Iran is under the age of 30.

If the hardliners remain divided and if the youth come out to vote for the moderates, there is a strong chance that Rouhaini and his cohorts might actually take over the Iranian Parliament and if that happens it could be an electoral earthquake.

Imagine Iran with a parliament that supports Rouhani and his moderate outlook.

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Turkish AntiSemitism
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The ruling party in Turkey is the AKP and it is an Islamic party. Erdogan, the president of Turkey, is the head of an Islamic party.

And yet, I was still surprised to read in Vahdet, the official Islamic newspaper of Turkey, that a major Turkish writer and thinker said: "I believe that the gorillas and chimps living today in the forests of North Africa are cursed Jews. They are perverted humans that have mutated."

The author and thinker is named Syefi Sahin. He writes regularly for the paper and deals with issues of Islam. His bio says that he is a physician which should imply education and exposure to science.

Sahin says that "Jews terrorize the scientific world" and claims that Darwin was a Jew. In his world view, "The aim of [Darwin's] theory is to turn the non-Jews away from their religion, to harm their faith, and to make them suspicious about their religion. Darwin, being a Jew, believed, lived, and was buried according to his religion. His real targets were the Muslims."

Sahin says that monkeys came from Jews and he quotes from the Koran "Whomever Allah has cursed and punished, and those he turned into monkeys, pigs, and Satan worshipers, occupy the worst place [in his eyes], and they are perverts that have deviated from their path."

Sahin claims that the Jews convinced the world that Darwin was right and that they control the banks and science.

He defends Islam when he says that we Muslims have our brains and the truth and Allah and that will protect us from the Jews.

Syefi Sahin is not some nut on the fringes of Turkish and Islamic society. These thoughts and writings are published in a mainstream paper in Turkey and the paper is a mouthpiece of the ruling party.

The significance of this is gigantic. It underscores a serious and gaping synapse between the point of view presented by the leadership of Turkey to the outside world and the point of view disseminated to the people of Turkey who read the country's mass circulation newspaper.

Turkey has a serious ax to grind.

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Not A Cold War
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Putin and Obama spoke today.

They talked about the Syrian talks and the future cease fire in Syria. It seems that Putin and Obama have had an understanding about what should happen in Syria for quite some time and it is only now becoming public.

The plan, or even better, the understanding between Russia and the United States was drawn up, but Obama was queasy about it. The reality is that Russia is bearing the lion's share of the work. That is because Russia is on the ground in Syria. Yes, Russia has gone above (literally) beyond their role and has shut down the airspace of Syria for most of the day by enacting their own anti-air defense system which protects Assad and that infuriates Obama.

The basic understanding is that Russia will confirm that Syrian forces and Iranian and Hezbollah forces as well as their own forces will hold to the cease fire. But the United States must get the rebels to stop - and that is the stumbling block. All the rebel groups do not agree to this agreement and they certainly are not at all connected to the US, especially because many of them are al Qaeda connected. It's a mess.

The saving grace is that I can finally prove to people that the United States and Russia are not engaged in a modern day "Cold War" - it is a question I get all the time. Obama and Kerry and their underlings are in constant contact with their counterparts in Russia. That's called communication, not a Cold War.

Yes, they certainly have significant differences of opinion and objectives, but they are also working together. Yes, Russia is making a play for a greater role in the world and wants to become a major power, but they are not yet there. Yes, Russia is gaining in influence, but they are still playing catch up. We are not on the brink of a world war and it is not in Russian's interest to promote a world war.

Russia's main interest is to propel itself into an even more relevant player.

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Turkey Gives US an Ultimatum
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey has thrown down the gauntlet with the US. Yes - with the United States of America!!!

Turkey has almost no allies anymore. The United States has been a strong friend of Turkey for the past 60 years. But Turkey has chosen to give the US an ultimatum - it is accept our ultimatum, or else.
The US must abandon the Kurdish fighters in Syria or lose Turkey as an ally.

The idea that Turkey would even think of saying this publicly, that they would call in the US ambassador to Turkey and issue the ultimatum is just mind boggling. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Israel and even Iran have all deserted Turkey and are no longer their allies.
The United States used to refer to Turkey as their "most reliable ally in the region." No more.

The Kurds of Syria are the only true fighting force that has had any real success against ISIS. The raid at Tishrin, for example, was a joint operation that was successful only because of the Kurds who were the foundation of the raid.

But the Democratic Union, aka the PYD in Syria, is an outgrowth of the Kurdish Workers Party - the PKK. And the PKK has been at war with Turkey since 1984.

Turkey has used the cover of ISIS to strike at the Kurds and the Kurds have hit back at Turkey.

The United States cannot abandon the Kurdish PYD. That would mean cutting off and abandoning their only reliable set of trained and vetted fighters on the ground in the region. These Kurds are great fighters. They are fighting for their land, for their families and for their lives. If they lose to ISIS they will lose everything - including their heads.

These Kurds will not run away like Iraqi soldiers or Syrian Sunnis did. They are motivated to fight. The United States needs them.
Turkey is over playing their hand. They have not even offered all that much in the first place.

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Twitter Shuts Down Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Twitter has stepped up and shut down 120,000 accounts that have supported terror. Bravo!

Since the summer of 2015 Twitter has increased the number of their teams that respond to complaints and have dedicated other teams to searching on their own to make certain that user rules are not abused.

This was their post: "We condemn the use of Twitter to promote terrorism and the Twitter Rules make it clear that this type of behavior, or any violent threat, is not permitted on our service."

"As the nature of the terrorist threat has changed, so has our ongoing work in this area."

"We also look into other accounts similar to those reported and leverage proprietary spam-fighting tools to surface other potentially
violating accounts for review by our agents."

"We have already seen results, including an increase in account suspensions and this type of activity shifting off of Twitter."

Much of this material is in English. One in five people creating these types of accounts preferred English. And 75% preferred Arabic.

Twitter is starting to take this situation seriously. They are not the purveyors of this message - they are simply the tool. At first, all social media hosts claimed they even though they had no responsibility, they would examine and investigate and even remove those who preached hatred and death.

That is a passive approach. It responds only to complaints. Now
Twitter is actively going further and investigating on its own. This is a must do. All other social media providers should follow Twitter's lead. They must be proactive and seek out and investigate sites similar to those already removed.

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Shocking Response by Arab MKs
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 10, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Three Arab members of the Israeli Knesset have been have been punished by the Ethics Committee for visiting the families of terrorists and broadcasting it on their social media sites.
This is not a significant story. One would expect that.

But when one of the Knesset members, Basel Ghattas explained the entire situation on Israel Army radio -- that is what should have caused a volcanic eruption and a public outcry. Yet surprisingly there was almost no coverage of his comments and no real response.

These were his words.

"If [Israel] wasn't occupying the West Bank, these children would not have to kill Jews." He synopsizes the entire issue and lays blame at the "occupation". He makes his inflammatory claim on Israeli army radio and it goes almost without response.

That is shocking.

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Does Iran Support Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 9, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has announced numerous times that they have not received any monetary support from Iran since 2009.

But the new spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry, Hossein Jaberi Ansari, said that Iran does support Hamas, in principle because part of Iran's foreign policy is to support Hamas in its fight against Israel.

The messaging is unclear. Does "support" mean actual money, or doesn't it.

And certainly, since 2011 when the Syrian crisis began Iran was livid that Hamas supported ousting Assad while Iran was propping him up.

At this moment, even if Iran gave money to Hamas they might reject it, despite their massive need for funds. They might reject Iranian Shiite help because it might upset the Sunni leaders that have stepped in to fill the void in supporting Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza.

Iran is interested in erecting another front in the region and they will want to bribe Hamas - but it looks like some of the people in the region are not interested in having Iranian/Shiite influence re-arrange their lives.

Talk about mixed messaging.

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Hamas Executes Leader
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has executed one of their senior leaders. His name is Mahmoud Eshtewi and he was convicted of unnamed "moral and behavioral violations." A Hamas tweet said that Eshtewi confessed to spying for Israel since 2007.

They later said that he was executed for various crimes.

Mahmoud Eshtewi disappeared from his family last year. He was arrested and interrogated and confessed. He came from a very prominent family and the family protested outside the home of Ismail Haniyah, the head of Hamas in Gaza, to find out where Eshtewi was being held. Security services threatened the family and dispersed them.

Hamas has executed dozens of people for collaborating with Israel. In this case, Hamas believed that Eshtewi gave Israel the location of Mohammed Deif the Hamas strategic mastermind. Israel attempted to target Deif at least four times.

Hamas could not tolerate even the thought that one of their senior leaders gave Israel the most secret location of their most treasured symbolic military leader. He needed to be executed and everyone needs to know that.

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Did Israel Destory Gaza Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Does Israel have a secret weapon that can make tunnels in Gaza collapse?

Over the past two weeks nine Palestinians, including at least two high level Hamas commanders, have been buried alive in two or three tunnel collapses.

There is no doubt that Hamas has been rebuilding their tunnel infrastructure and hopes, once again, to attack Israel using this secret underground weapon. And it has been reported that Israel is fast at work developing new technology to combat the tunnels.

So did Israel cause the collapse of the tunnels?
The best answer is - maybe.

Yes, Israel is developing and testing new weapons and yes, they may have done the deed. Israel will never take credit for the sabotage, but Israel did warn Gazans to stay far away from the tunnels.

Israelis may be playing into a conspiracy that Israel has these great powers but sometime the conspiracy theories are actually true.

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Good News & Bad News w ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Good news and bad news.

The good news is that the number of ISIS fighters has not increased over the past year. The bad news is that the number of ISIS fighters has not decreased over the past year.

That is the official report by the US military.
The United States puts the number of ISIS fighters at somewhere between 19,000 and 35,000. I would say that the number is between 30,000 and 40,000.

The worst news is that this handful of ISIS fighters is turning the region and the world upside down. Billions of dollars are being spent in order to confront this group and they still remain the same in numerical strength and in capabilities.

The region and the world have been dedicated fighting ISIS - and they have not yet been able to degrade their strength.

I can only hope that next year we will be able to say with conviction that ISIS numbers have been seriously reduced.

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CBS Distorts Headline
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

When three terrorists attack two female soldiers in Jerusalem, murdering one of the soldiers, a nineteen year old named Hadar Cohen, and injuring the other woman - that should be news, even international news.

But when the three terrorists who attacked these female soldiers were killed, that became the headline news headline - not the terror and not the murder of the female soldier.

CBS news website plastered a headline that read: "Three Palestinians Killed as Daily Violence Grinds On."
Excuse me!

That was a perversion of the truth that does not follow the story line and, moreover, is simply not true.

The Palestinians were terrorists. Two of them had guns, the third had a knife. They had already shot and stabbed the soldiers and were continuing on their way when they were stopped. You do not stop terrorists by asking them to put down their weapons. You neutralize them. You stop them from murdering more innocent victims. Yes, they died -- but hardly in the fashion described in the CBS headline.
CBS later changed the headline to: "Palestinians Kill Israeli Officer, Wound Another Before Being Killed."

We have come to expect sensationalism of this type from Al Jazeera. Their online English website ran the headline: "Three Palestinians Shot and Killed by Israeli Police At Damascus Gate in Occupied East Jerusalem. More Soon..."

The Israeli Government Press Office is considering rescinding press credentials of the CBS staffers responsible for the headline. This is, they maintain, much more than shoddy or amateurish journalism or amateurish. This is a blatant rewrite of the facts. And that is reprehensible.

The person or persons responsible for this slanted portrayal of the news should at least be disciplined, perhaps even lose their job.

Journalists have a responsibility - they must present that facts and tell the truth in an unbiased way.

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Russia Ousting Saudis As Oil Seller to China
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 3, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is now ousting Saudi Arabia as the main supplier of oil to China.

This is a major move and it is critical in understanding the power of one country and its influence on the world.

If Russia is now out playing Saudi Arabia in oil in China, it is not only getting more cash in its coffers, but it is also seen on the world stage as upstaging Saudi Arabia at its own game.

That translates back to important issues in the Middle East where Russia, along with Iran, is supporting Assad in Syria and Saudi Arabia is doing everything in order to oust Assad and harm Iran and Russia.

In 2010, Russia was only providing 7% of Chinese oil while the Saudis supplied 20%. Now it looks like they are both somewhere between 13% and 14%. And for several months last year Russia won the oil export game.

Russia is making a serious move and the Saudis are trying to fight back.

Yes, they all can use the money given the drop in the price of oil. But more than money - what they really need is influence and prestige.


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Iran & Their Newfound $Billions
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 2,2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced through their media that all $100 billion of frozen assets are now unfrozen.

Most of the money was kept in banks in China, South Korea, Turkey, India and Japan. It sat and earned interest.

The Iranians are now accessing those assets.

Iran is now reconnected to SWIFT, a Belgian-based cooperative that transfers monies from bank to bank. For years no foreign banks were located in Iran so all funds needed to be transferred through SWIFT.

Much of the money will remain abroad. This is telling. It tells us that the Iranians are nor fearful that their funds will be frozen again in the future.

Keeping the money abroad makes it very simple for Iran to transfer dollars after they purchase the many, much needed, goods - like planes from France, that Iran needs and Rouhani plans to procure.

Watching how Iranian leadership conducts itself now that the sanctions against them have been lifted is an important key in understanding how Iran views the future.

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ISIS Attacks Shiites
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 1, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS exploded three bombs in southern Damascus yesterday. The bombs exploded nearly simultaneously, killing over sixty people and wounding many more.

The first was a car bomb, the other two were suicide bombers who ran into the crowd of those who were trying to help the car victims, blowing up as many people as they could.

The location was very critical for ISIS. It was a Shiite holy site and the traditional burial place of Zaynab. The site has been very well protected by Syrian and Hezbollah forces because of its symbolic value.

Zaynab was the daughter of Ali and Fatima. Fatima was the daughter of Mohammed. That means Zaynab was the maternal granddaughter of Mohammed. The split between Shiites and Sunnis is all about Zaynab and her parents.

In the famous battle of Karbala, the brother of Zaynab, named Hussein, leads the battle and loses the battle. Zaynab tends to the wounded and is then brought to Damascus. The Koran records how the severed head of each leader was held up and displayed. With each head a story is told.

According to the Koran, Zaynab is making noise and the leader asks an adviser "who is this arrogant woman?" Zaynab answers, "Why ask him, ask me. I am daughter of Fatima granddaughter of Mohammed."

One of the major tensions between ISIS, al Qaeda, Salafis and other Muslims - especially Shiite Muslims, is over holy tombs and holy sites. ISIS views their very presence as pagan and wants to destroy them.

This ISIS attack in Damascus was not simply aimed at murdering the masses. It was a direct strike at the hero of Shiite Islam and the traditions of Shiite Islam.


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US & UK Hack Israel's Drones and Jets
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 31, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has been hacked - by the United States and by the United Kingdom.

A huge intelligence hack was exposed on Friday. The United States and England broke the computer codes of Israel's drones and fighter jets all the way back in 1998. And ever since then, they have literally had a "virtual seat in the cockpit" of Israel attacks.
They were watching the video of drone attacks and jet attacks.

The hack and the intelligence operation against Israel are called "Anarchist."

They hacked in and used the British air force base in the Troodos mountains in Cyprus as their listening center - it sits on the highest mountaintop in the region, Mt Olympus. This is the most elite intelligence hub in the entire array of British intelligence centers known as the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) intelligence agency.

From their mountaintop vantage point the United States and Great Britain were able to watch armed Israeli drones fire on their targets. As an aside, Israel is one the of the world's biggest producers and suppliers of drone technology and they have never admitted to having armed drones.

The leak of this hack is part of the Wikileaks that Ed Snowden stored and released.

According to the leak, the hack gave the United States the ability to read the drone monitors in real time as Israeli drones and fighter jets fired at their targets. And it is not a stretch to assume if they accessed the video, they could also INTERUPT the mission. So far there is only evidence that they observed, but they could also take control. That is the massive nature of the breach.

In Intel terms this is an "earthquake." Not simply because the United States is not supposed to spy on friends but because Israel's codes were cracked.

Yuval Steinitz, Israel's minister of energy, was quoted on Israel Army radio saying "I do not think that this is the deepest kingdom of secrets, but it is certainly something that should not happen, which is unpleasant. We will now have to look and consider changing the encryption, certainly." He continued "We know that the Americans spy on the whole world, and also on us, also on their friends."

Change the encryption codes. I would certainly say so. I would also add that Israel must rebuild their entire security system. Now!

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How ISIS Continues On
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 29, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

How has ISIS been able to withstand the nightly bombing raids that the allies have launched against them? It seems as if ISIS has been barely affected by the bombings, almost as if they have sustained no losses from the attacks.

I've discovered how. I've discovered how and why ISIS has hardly been degraded by the 14 allied air forces that have been pummeling them day in and out.

Several reasons have been given by Intel analysts, and they all seem plausible.

The first reason is that the planes only fire on a few of their missions.

Another is that ISIS is doing what the allies did during World War II. ISIS has paper and cardboard models of convoys that they put out at night, and the allies bomb them during the day. The models look like trucks and Hummers and even half tracks.

ISIS has also created new, narrow, windy roads through fields and hills. These roads are unmapped and they travel at night with vehicles using lights that are painted blue. They travel at night and most of the allied sorties are flown during the day.

ISIS is still selling oil and their trucks are still moving and bringing the oil to their buyers. All the oil is paid for in advance. The oil trucks belong to the contractors, most of whom are Turkish and Kurdish.

Even when trucks are hit, it has no effect of ISIS, not on the money flow and not the oil flow. The contractors take all the risk.

Finally, ISIS has hired Iraqi officers who specialize in camouflage. They have dressed the vehicles to blend into their environments. They look like part of the background and it is hard to see them when scanning a satellite image on a computer screen.

ISIS has gotten very good at protecting themselves.

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Iran Plays Another Game
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 28, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Tasnim and FARS, both semi-official Iranian news agencies with very close ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, have reported that on Wednesday an American naval ship turned and ran away from the Iranian navy in the Gulf of Oman.

According to the report, Iran was in involved in naval maneuvers when the US ship appeared on the scene. The Iranians told the Americans about their war games and the US ship quickly turned and left.

The United States should never have been in the area and left themselves open to another encounter with the Iranians - but once they were there, it was wise not to let this escalate and turn into "incident" or a "situation" as it did last time.

But - and this is important, this non-situation is another in a growing list of examples of how the right-wing in Iran uses mundane and simple issues to its advantage at home.

The press report describes the United States naval vessel high tailing it and running away from the awesome Iranian navy. The Iranian naval chief is quoted as saying that he thinks the US ship was there to "learn our tactics".

This kind of news plays well for those in Iran who think that conflict is good and that Iran is a peer of the United States when it comes to military strength.

Again, the United States did the right thing - it was a trap that Iran had set out for them and, this time, they nibbled, but did not swallow the bait.

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Israel Says Turkey Buys ISIS Oil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 27, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's minister of defense, Moshe Yaalon, is a straight shooter.
It is his character.

Yesterday the defense minister was extremely critical of Turkey. He said that Turkey supports ISIS. That pronouncement was made in a press conference after a meeting between Yaalon and his Greek counterpart.

Israel and Turkey have been working hard to mend fences and reconstitute diplomatic relations. Yaalon said that Israel stipulated that the relations would get back on track only after Turkey puts a stop to several actions that support ISIS - including buying their oil.

Yes, Turkey buys oil from ISIS and that helps prop up ISIS.

Yaalon said that "ISIS enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended." He also said that Turkey is a center for other terror groups. He called Turkey "Hamas' terror headquarters outside of Gaza."

In his most direct condemnation of Turkey, Yaalon said that Turkey has a choice to make. "It's up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide... should all these stop, and Turkey will be willing to reconcile with us, then Turkey can be part of the collaborative regional effort to fight terror - instead of supporting it."

Israel has always known that Turkey was buying ISIS oil but they have kept silent hoping that Turkey would do the right thing and stop dealing with ISIS on its own. That has not happened.

So now Israel, through Yaalon, has embarrassed Turkey by calling them out for buying ISIS oil.

Turkey can't let this pass. Turkey has to respond.

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Good News about Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Good news. I seldom write about good news but this is something I must write about.

Israeli high tech raised $4.47 billion in investment money in 2015.
That is an increase of 30% over 2014 and, not surprisingly, a record high.

The rest of the world is slowing down as many tech investors have become shy and the investment market has become a bear market.

But Israel is the exception.

Of course, there are those who say that Israel is simply lagging and the reality of the market will catch up with them soon. But to the investor it is not a lag. Investors are always looking for opportunity and Israel always has great ideas that need funding, ideas that can become the newest high-tech phenomenon.

Israel's tech companies sell themselves very well and they entice investors. The promise is not just of great fortune, the promise is that the new product or company will make a huge difference and change the world as we know it.

708 deals were struck last year. $1.2 billion worth of investment was brought in during the last quarter alone.
Investors have faith in Israel and in the future of Israel.

That is a very optimistic message.

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Iran Pres in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 25, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Rouhani will be in Europe from Monday through Thursday.

Rouhani intends to buy planes and court investors. In the week since sanctions were lifted, over $50 billion in foreign investments has poured into Iran. Now Rouhani knows what he needs.

Rouhani will be in Rome for two days and then go to Paris. Iran has ordered 114 Airbus planes including the Jumbo A-380, the A-320 and the A-321 from France. That comes to a total of $18 billion.

Iran needs to renew their passenger fleet which has not been updated for nearly four decades. Airbus is a French company. Boeing, the Seattle based US company, would really like to supply Iran, too. In addition Iran wants to add at least 20 new regional planes. The best supplier for the regional jet is CanAir/ Bombardier. They are a Canadian company.

This weekend Iran hosted 300 guests from various airplane companies, luring them back into the Iranian market. Iran is becoming a serious consumer. They have the need and they have the cash. Any supplier is going to want to step up and bid to get their business.

In case you had any doubts - sanctions against Iran are a thing of the past.

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Elections in Iran Feb 26
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 24, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Important elections will be held in Iran on February 26. We should watch them carefully. The elections are for parliament and for the Assembly of Experts.

The parliament in Iran is also known as, and better translated as, the Assembly of Representatives. In Persian is it called the Majles or the People's House. It is composed of 290 members from 31 provinces and 65 districts.

Elections for the Assembly of Experts is far more significant than the elections for the Majles. It is the experts who choose the Supreme Leader.

This Assembly is composed of 88 Islamic experts. Over the years the number of experts in the Assembly has varied from 82 to 88. The purpose of The Assembly is not political, although it is supposed to hold a check against the Supreme Leader. It appoints the Supreme Leader and can also remove him if necessary. The Assembly is divided into traditional conservatives and hard-line conservatives.

The future of Iran and the direction it takes will be determined on February 26. They will be heated elections. I anxiously await the results.

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Important News Items
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 23, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Three important items need to be brought into perspective this weekend.

A- The Slovenian supermarket that was boycotting Israeli fruits has rescinded that boycott and placed a new order for Israeli produce. They government officially responded saying that there was never a boycott. The truth is that boycotts are illegal under EU law so Slovenia changed their policy.

This is an important defeat for BDS. But they will continue to try to get more European countries to boycott Israel.

B- The Israeli army gave a briefing to the communities that live along the Gaza Strip. Community leaders were told that Hamas is ready for a new conflict. The threat is from rockets and from tunnels - Hamas has rebuilt the tunnels and restocked the rockets.
The communities have been trained to counter a ground strike to hold strong until army reinforcements arrive. The IDF says that the attacks could take place at anytime, but right now it seems that Hamas is playing a calming role and cracking down on Salafi extremists who are trying to attack Israel.

C- China's President Xi addressed the Arab League on Friday saying that the Chinese support a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders.
He said "We are in favor of putting in place a new mechanism to promote peace as to the Middle East question, and support efforts made by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation toward this end."

He continued by saying that China: "firmly supports the Middle East peace process, the establishment of a state of Palestine with full sovereignty on the basis of the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as its capital."

President Xi also committed to supporting a solar energy project for the Palestinians and pledged $7.6 million to that end.

These are all essential news items, they all require careful monitoring.

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A New Word Frenemy
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 22, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

FRENEMY - a combination of the words Friend and Enemy.
Machiavelli could have used this word.

It is the perfect way to describe those who live in the Middle East and those outside the Middle East who try to exert influence in the Middle East.

Using the word frenemy helps us understand that groups and people are not monolithic and that some things are complicated and many are never consistent. On one issue you may be aligned with a particular party or a leader and their nation and on another issue you may be on the opposite side.

That's what happens almost every time with almost every country in the Middle East.

FRENEMY is an oxymoron. It is also a portmanteau.

An oxymoron is an expression which is a contradiction within itself, like icy-fire, fight for peace.

A portmanteau was originally a 2 sided trunk. It describes a combination word. The best examples are "brunch" and "motel." Lewis
Carroll created the word when he had Humpty Dumpty explaining to
Alice the weird words like Jabberwocky... he then explains "slithy" which is lithe and slimy combined.

There is an argument as to when FRENEMY came into existence. It was probably sometime between 1970 and 1975. Some argue even earlier.

It is a word I have begun using more and more frequently.

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The Meir Family Are Heroes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 21, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

This is about a stark contrast in societies and in characters.

Dafna Meir, a young Jewish mother of six, was brutally murdered by a 15 year old Palestinian boy. Dafna was stabbed in the head, in front of her house, as she painted the trim on her front door. The terrorist struck her so brutally, he could not retrieve the knife from her skull. Robbed of the ability to also murder the children who were in the house, he fled.

The family, friends and the nation of Israel is in morning.
Natan her husband said this: "We have no anger."

"I am not angry at anyone. We do not curse Arabs. We are not people who hate. That's not how Dafna and I educated the kids. I spoke with the children yesterday and didn't hear a single bad thing. I talked to them about what we will do now. It's not simple."

When Palestinian terrorists are killed, even when suicide bombers blow themselves up, their families celebrate the suicide/death and the murders. Mothers say that they wish all their children would become martyrs. Some say they will have more children and raise them, too, to become martyrs.

Natan and his family are heroes, they are giants, they are an example of strength and humanity in the face of unspeakable tragedy.
And the world calls Israelis "oppressors."

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BDS Wins in Slovenia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 20, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Slovenia's largest supermarket chain, called Mercator, is now boycotting Israel. This is a major victory for the BDS movement and a significant loss for Israel.

Israeli products are now off the shelves at Mercator. Before the boycott, Slovenia imported primarily citrus products from Israel, fruits like pomelos, oranges, limes and lemons as well as avocados and dates.

What makes this decision by the Slovenian supermarket even more devastating is that the state of Slovenia itself is a significant shareholder in this national food chain.

Israel saw the writing on the wall and had been increasing diplomatic pressure on Slovenia to prevent this decision - but failed.

This Slovenian boycott does not concern itself with products from the West Bank. This policy which is framed by BDS addresses only those items imported from Israel.

Boycotts of this nature violate international law. But this is not about law - it is about hatred and bile and anger.

I hope that the Slovenian government and the Mercator supermarket chain some to their senses. Soon.

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ISIS is on the March Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 19, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

We are hearing that ISIS is on the run - that they have been beaten back.

I'm not too sure.

Yesterday I read a series of reports that ISIS is on the march and capturing more and more cities and villages and towns in northeastern Syria.

The province of Dayr Az Zawr is the place of most interest right not. The capital city of Dayr Az Zawr, which bears the same name as the province, is now totally under the control of ISIS. According to reports, ISIS captured their weapon depots and many other stocks of weapons.

ISIS also captured the city of Ayash which housed an army base.

All these places were snatched from Assad's forces.

ISIS will use these victories as propaganda to help propel and boost their morale and to help motivate their fighters who have been hurt by Russian and other air strikes.

The pendulum often swings in these conflicts. Seldom is the movement only in one direction.

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FBI Arrest 2 from ISIS in VA
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 18, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday afternoon the FBI arrested two men in Richmond, VA. One was arrested at the airport on his way to join ISIS in Syria, the other was arrested near Richmond. The second man helped plan the trip and had dropped the first man off near the airport. He took a taxi the rest of the way.

The plan was to get to Syria by flying from Richmond to Chicago and then from Chicago to Amman, Jordan. From Amman he would somehow make his way into Syria.

The FBI found out about these two men because a third person, the person coordinating the trip, was an FBI informant.

This is an important illustration of how people just get on planes and go off to advance the ISIS cause. The problem, which should be obvious, is that it is almost impossible to stop this from happening. Had it not been for the informant arrests would never have been made and the first person would be in Syria.

Joining ISIS is so easy. It is as simple as buying a ticket. In combating ISIS recruitment we need to find better ways to stop them.

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Inside Iran & The Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 17, 2016

I've Been Thinking:


Iranian media is revealing a split in thinking about the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear deal.

On Saturday a front page headline read "Nuclear Burial". That was a pun based on the removal and the filling of Iran's only heavy water reactor in Arak with cement.

Another paper said the filling of the reactor with cement "hurt national pride."

Both these papers side with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They are far right of the political leadership of President Rouhani and foreign minister Zarif.

This tension should be elevated by the Supreme Leader. But the Ayatollah seems to side with the Revolutionary Guard.

When Ahmadinejad was in power his policies were even more extreme than the expectations and wishes of the Supreme Leader.

When the Ayatollah chose the next president he selected Rouhani who was of a more liberal bent. But he is too liberal for the Supreme Leader who now seems to side more with the Revolutionary Guard.

This makes the entire situation very difficult to predict.

There is serous blowback inside Iran. If the Supreme Leader is unhappy with the deal he will need to be convinced that lifting the sanctions are a panacea for all the ails Iran is confronting.

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Iran Humiliated the US for a Reason
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 16, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

It is worthwhile taking some time to understand what really happened when Iran captured 10 US sailors who, for 40 minutes, wandered off course. As of now it is clear to everyone that the ship's GPS was working and that they had plenty of fuel.

The real issue here, and the real intention, was to totally humiliate the United States. Also humiliated were President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif. It was all part of the plan concocted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They were behind the video taping of the US sailors and they were behind the release of the video.

US Secretary of State Kerry was immediately in touch with his counterpart, Zarif, in Teheran. The release of the sailors was a quick deal, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guard needed to exploit the matter.

The Guard does not like the nuclear deal and they certainly do not trust the United States. The deal is near completion and the sanctions are about to be lifted. The Guard knows this and is trying to agitate. They see the deal as a plot by the US and by Rouhani to topple the current regime and to break their monopoly on the Iranian economy. They want to show the United States and the Iranian people - as well as the mass media, that they will not be lured into the point of view held by the United States. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard wants to prove that Iran will neither bow to the United States nor succumb to the West and adopt Western culture.
This is a huge statement.

On the other side in Iran are President Rouhani and his foreign minister Zarif. They know that Iran needs the sanctions to be lifted especially on oil - even despite the fact that the drop in the price of oil is not helpful to their bigger goal.

The Grand Ayatollah seems to be silently on the side of the Revolutionary Guard and has only begrudgingly and cautiously permitted the nuclear deal.

The United States wants the nuclear technology to be secured and they have looked the other way regarding serious violation and saber rattling by the Revolutionary Guard - which also includes firing a rocket dangerously close to US ships and the testing of long range ballistic missiles.

The capture of the US sailors could not have come at a worse moment for the United States and Iranian leadership. It was, however, perfect timing for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It was just at the point of the end of the nuclear deal's timetable. And of course one could not miss that it was on the eve of Obama's last State of the Union Address.

Releasing the video was a huge embarrassment for the United States.
The video went viral around the world. What is most important is that millions of people have watched as the Iranians forced the US to their knees - literally and figuratively. Yes, the US aircraft carrier was poised to attack Iran - but Iran trained their missiles and rockets on that carrier and many other targets.

In the end the sailors were released and the situation did not escalate. But the biggest winners were the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the biggest losers were the United States and Iranian President Rouhani.

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Mother Takes Infant & Joins ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 15, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Is Tareena Shakil the new normal in our world today, or is she a lost and wayward soul? Read on.

Tareena Shakil, a 25 year old woman from England, took her 17 month old baby and traveled to Turkey, then crossed into Syria, and joined ISIS. Before choosing to live in the Syrian stronghold Raqqa, she lived in Burton-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

The 17 month old baby boy is named Zaheem and on her facebook page there are pictures of the two of them, together, in Raqqa. Zaheem is posing in ISIS clothes. Tareena claims that ISIS kidnapped her and tried to force her into marriage. Facebook and other social media show her to be a public relatons advocate for ISIS.

Before she left England Tareena wrote a farewell letter to her family. While in Raqqa she continued to correspond through facebook and texting.

She was arrested almost a year ago, in February of 2015, at Heathrow Airport when she returned to London. Her trial is beginning now.

How did this TOWIE fan from England take her infant son and join ISIS? (TOWIE, for those who do not know, stands for THE ONLY WAY IS ESSEX -hardcore English soccer fans of the Essex club).

The case against Tareena Shakil is very strong despite her claims that she was kidnapped and is frustrated and disillusioned.

European security sources say that 5,000 Europeans have made their way to Syria and Iraq to fight for ISIS. Many have been killed, many are still there and many have returned.

The question is how many of those who have returned are disillusioned and frustrated and how many are actually ISIS terrorists or ISIS recruiters.

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Poll of Arab Youth on ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 14, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

The results of a very interesting survey that took place in October of 2015 have been released. They offer hope for our future.

5,374 people, both men and women, were surveyed in Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories by the Zogby Research Services.

75% of people between the ages of 15 and 34 living in the Middle East said that ISIS and al Qaeda were a perversion of Islam.

They also say that the blame for the emergence of these extremists groups is corruption and leadership.

"At least three-quarters of millennial respondents in all countries surveyed" said movements like ISIS and Al-Qaeda "are either a complete perversion of Islam's teachings or mostly wrong."

In Morocco and the United Arab Emirates over 90% of those surveyed said that ISIS and al Qaeda were a "complete perversion." In Egypt 83% concurred also saying that ISIS and al Qaeda were a "complete perversion."

In the Palestinian Authority and in Saudi Arabia the numbers were lower and the sentiment not as dramatic. 55% said that the groups "were distorting Islam." It should be noted that a "distortion" is not the same as "a complete perversion."

This is very good news. Now we need to see the millennials behind these numbers standing up and stopping the perversion and the distortion. If that were to happen it would be a huge step towards defeating extremism.

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Bomb the ISIS Money
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 13, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched two videos. Both videos were almost exactly the same. One video was posted by ISIS, the other was posted by the Iraqi forces.

The videos showed a bank in Mosul after a bombing. US sources said that the United States targeted and hit the bank in the ISIS-controlled city of Mosul with 2,000 pound bombs. A 2,000 pound bomb would destroy whatever it hit. In this case it hit the al Zahour bank.

ISIS released their video as a critique of US activities. Iraqi forces show it as a hallelujah to the success of US forces.

Targeting and hitting the bank in Mosul is a very important change in US tactics. Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq with a population of two million people. The city is located north of Baghdad very close to the borders of Turkey and Syria.

The essential element of the story of banking in Mosul is that within the first day of ISIS taking over the city, they wired bank holdings back into the bank itself, automatically giving themselves control and use of nearly $200 million.

Over the next few weeks ISIS pulled the same stunt in the cities of Tikrit and Baji. Combine all three cities and ISIS probably secured nearly $500 million, or half a billion, dollars.

Today ISIS cannot use international banks - the banks would freeze the stolen money. Instead, ISIS actually keeps the cash in the banks, just like in the good old days before wire transfers and computers.

In order for the United States to strike at the heart of ISIS, they need to hit the money sources. The US has already started bombing several of ISIS' oil fields. And when they hit the al Zahour bank in Mosul, they destroyed not only the bank building, but the money that was in the bank.

There is almost no defense against a bomb of that weight. It leveled the entire area. ISIS will respond by taking money out of their other banks and spreading it out, making it harder for the United States and other enemy forces to get to the money, but also making it harder for them to monitor and control their ill-gotten money.

Hitting the cash was a very good idea. It should have been months ago. The big mistake, however, is that the United States didn't hit all the banks simultaneously. That would have dealt a crippling blow to ISIS activities.

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Brand New F-35s to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 12, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is about to receive its first set of F-35 fighter jets. These are the hottest item in the world of fighter jets at this stage.

The F-35 is a stealth fighter. It is undetectable to radar.

Israel ordered thirty-three F-35s from Lockheed Martin at a total of about $4.75 billion - about $110 million each. The thirty-three fighter planes will be housed in two airbases.

Israel has already renamed their F-35, they are calling it "Adir" which means very special.

A ceremony took place at the Texas Lockheed Martin plant where the planes are nearly ready to be shipped. All that remains are the computers and the electronics. That is what will make Israel's Adir F-35 that much more special than all the other 130 stealth fighters that have been manufactured thus far to date.

Israel is "souping them up." That is the expression used in the race car world. And in the world - and in the world of stealth fighter jets.

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Bibi Only Candidate on Primary Ballot
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 11, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is the prime minister of Israel and he is the head of the Likud party.

Registration for the Likud primary closed at 12 PM on Sunday. Netanyahu was the only candidate registered. The primaries are scheduled for February 23.

What should a party do when there is no opposition? It certainly opens up the doors for potential legal challenges if there is no opposition.

Likud leadership says that not having a primary will save them 4 million shekel, the minimum cost of a primary.

It is amazing is that there really is no challenge to Netanyahu from within the party. There is no young guard and there are no senior members of Likud willing to stand for the position of leadership.

Under normal circumstances the primary very quickly establishes the pecking order for the rest of party leadership. The primary creates a list and that list becomes an essential guideline for which person gets what position in the party and in the government.

By not having a primary the future of Likud is left in the hands of Bibi Netanyahu and his inner circle of advisers.

The lesson here is that even when it is a no-doubt-about-it shoe-in election, it is still essential to hold a primary.

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Saudi - Iran Conflict Will Not Become a War
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 8, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Where is the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran heading?

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran want to destroy, or at least badly hurt, the other.

The conflict is centuries old. It is the continuation of a rift that was created after the death of the Prophet Muhammad at which time a challenge arose as to who would succeed the prophet.

This is the root of the Shiite- Sunni conflict.

At this stage both Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to use proxies and the international media to stab and jab each other. It is not in either of their interests to turn this squabble into a full scale direct conflict. The cost is too great, neither country can afford it.

The Sunni and Shiite worlds are now attacking one another.

The real test is how well each country does at drawing other counties and tribes and even non=Muslim leaders in support of their cause. In the meantime they will name call and blame each other for violating the true dictates of Islam.

Right now it looks like Saudi Arabia has the upper hand. But Russia is on the side of Iran. And who knows which side the United States will choose.

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US Bombs ISIS Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 7, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

I've Been Thinking:

Since October, the United States has been bombing ISIS oil fields.

This was a significant change in policy - until then, oil was not touched. The thinking was that oil would be an important and immediate cash source for any new government that would be replacing ISIS.

But as of October the US changed plans, now thinking that the cash profits ISIS was getting from the oil was helping fund and run their militant, terrorist state. The United States also, finally, understood that and ISIS was not teetering or toppling.

The shocker is that this huge change in policy, a change that is intended to strangle ISIS monetarily, has to date only involved 65 strikes. The strikes have reduced ISIS oil production by only 30% - from 45,000 barrels per day to 34,000 barrels per day.

In real figures this would be a drop from $1,575,000 per day to $1,190,000 per day at market prices. The only redeeming part of all this is that ISIS is selling their oil at significantly below market price, selling at between $20 to $25 per barrel. That still means that they are making $850,000 a day on oil.

This is just another example of how the United States is only half heartedly confronting ISIS. If they want to strangle ISIS and remove their oil profits, it will require more than 65 strikes and more than a 30% reduction in oil production.

The United States is reluctant to do more. That reluctance permits ISIS to run their state and fund their fighters. The United States must decide what they really want to do vis a vis ISIS, and then go after it.

But maybe, this is what the US really wants. Many words, little action.

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ISIS Retakes Ramadi
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 6, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Remember how last week the United States proclaimed that their Western backed forces in Iraq had finally ousted ISIS from Ramadi?

The action took days to accomplish and we were treated to an almost minute by minute accounting as Western forces went building by building and took back the city. Then the announcement came. ISIS was removed and the city is now under the control of Western-backed Iraqi forces.

So how is it possible that Arabic media websites are now filled with the story that ISIS blew up the public hospital in Ramadi on Monday?

The hospital really was bombed and there is no reason to doubt the claims that ISIS did the deed.

Clearly ISIS is still there and clearly they targeted the hospital in order to terrorize the residents of Ramadi. The selection of a target, especially a hospital, is a deliberate act. We in the West ask, how could anyone target a hospital? ISIS doesn't ask that question.

ISIS does not hold the same values and act according to the same principles that the West does. Hospitals are a perfect target for ISIS. It demonstrates their ruthlessness and it emphasizes that those people at the target site are traitors and not fellow followers of the ISIS version of Islam.

Ramadi is a city of 450,000 people it is located about 60 miles west of Baghdad. Ramadai lies on the essential trade route used by truckers making their way between Baghdad and Amman, Jordan.

ISIS is telling all those in the region that they are still active and potent in Ramadi. They are broadcasting that the earlier reports issued by the West are nothing more than anti-ISIS propaganda.


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Crisis in the Mideast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 5, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

As I wrote yesterday, tensions between Sunnis and Shiites are becoming more and more apparent. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has spilled over into the rest of the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia announced that they cancelled all flights and all trade with Iran.

Bahrain, a Saudi ally, has also expelled Iranian diplomats from their country.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has said that they are downgrading their relationship with Iran. They no longer have full diplomatic ties and have asked the Iranian ambassador to leave. The most senior Iranian diplomat now in the UAE is a “charge de affairs.” This is almost like expelling the entire diplomatic team - it leaves Iran with a skeleton presence in the UAE.

Sudan has also expelled their Iranian diplomats.

The lines have been drawn. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are on one side. The rest of the Arab world is on the other side.

Now let's look at how China sees the situation. In speaking about the Saudi / Iran conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a news briefing on Monday that: "Like the international community, China is highly concerned about the developments and expresses concern that the relevant event may intensify conflict in the region."

It is important to analyze how the Chinese see the unfolding of international issues that may have
an impact on their country. As you can clearly see, China is worried about the Middle East, especially this tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Islam is filled with internal conflict. For those in the West who do not yet realize it, tensions between Sunnis and Shiites are even greater than tensions between Islam and non-believers. The non-believer can be saved, a heretic cannot be saved.

Islam, Shiite and Sunni alike, views the other as heretics and according to their belief, they are both permitted to murder the other with impunity.

That is what we are seeing.

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Iran Saudi Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 4, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

There is a diplomatic crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The Saudis have expelled all Iranian diplomats and are closing the
Iranian embassy there. They were given 48 hours to leave.

I wish there was a clear way to pinpoint how the current conflict started.

Many experts will say that the Saudi execution of Sheik Nimr al Nirm, the Shiite and Iranian supporting cleric, which led to Iranians storming, burning and pillaging the Saudi embassy in Teheran leaving the embassy engulfed in flames, is to blame.

Whatever the real reason, the bottom line is that the Saudis expelled the Iranian diplomats - and that's what counts.

Things have always been tense between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They represent opposite streams in Islam that have warred and persecuted and butchered each other for centuries.

The current conflict is over Yemen and Syria where, through proxies, these two sides of Islam continue their centuries old battle over the true belief.

Even when these obvious tensions of the past few days diminish, it will bring a calming of tensions. It will simply being a subsiding of aggressive conflict between the two countries.

Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to harm each other through their proxies and in the world of politics and world markets.

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US #1 Threat For Russia
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Russia just released their new threat assessment. Their last assessment was in 2009. This new assessment places the United States as one of the prime threats against them.

The document is called: "About the Strategy of National Security of Russian Federation." It was signed by President Vladimir Putin on New Year's Eve.

The document explains that Russia has become more involved in resolving international issues and in doing so, Russia has been brought head to head with the United States and other Western countries. It also explains that significant tensions emerged after the Crimea annexation. The document also accuses the United States of supporting an illegal coup in Ukraine.

The document reads: "The strengthening of Russia happens against the background of new threats to the national security, which has complex and interrelated nature."

The new Russian threat assessment recognizes that, because Russia is more active in world affairs, it is causing tensions with the United States and has resulted in a "counteraction from the USA and its allies, which are striving to retain their dominance in global affairs."

The assessment concludes that there will be blowback - "political, economical, military and informational pressure."

The Russian assessment is correct and tensions will continue.

The most important information we garner from the document is not that the Russians have come to an honest threat assessment, but rather that Russia will continue along this vein of international activism and will continue to confront the United States on these issues.

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Arabs Sue US over Support of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Two American Arabs and an American Jew have brought suit against the US Treasury for not supervising non-profit groups that are giving money to Israel. The groups receiving the monies are not named in the suit but are brought forth as examples of violations of US law and Treasury rules for tax free donations.

The complaint is 72 pages long and was formally submitted on December 16th. It claims that over $1 billion a year of US money goes to illegal causes and is tax deducted. The complaint lists many groups that they are accusing of giving money and says that there are 150 groups guilty of doing this.

The groups include, Friends of IDF, Friends of Ariel University, The Hebron Fund and The Gush Etzion Foundation. The case asserts that some of these groups have no presence at all in the United States other than a post office box. The case asserts that up to a trillion dollars of tax money is lost.

The suit claims that the money is supporting terror and violence as well as violating human rights.

This case has no merit. It is wrong and it will be thrown out.
Never the less, it is disturbing.

The problem with the case is that it is predicated on the assumption that everything that Israel does is illegal and violates international law.

The complaint says: "Treasury claims that it takes a very vigorous and active role in terms of monitoring the activities"
An attorney for the group said: "Huge tax deductions are being taken that support ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Guess who picks up the tab? The American taxpayer. There's something wrong with that. "

The complaint continues: "U.S. tax-exempt entities and their donors, settlement leaders, and the construction companies they hired to build housing developments and shopping malls can all be criminally prosecuted because they have conspired to fund, facilitate, trespass on, demolish and/or confiscate private Palestinian property, all in the name of settlement expansion."

The people behind this suit want these groups to be called "special designated global terrorists," stripping them of their tax-exempt status and freezing their assets. The case states: "There are huge penalties that go with that."

The people bringing the suit assert that the US and the Treasury are being two-faced. That they are not following their own laws regarding Israel and have turned a blind eye for decades.

The suit states that: "the entities cannot promote or finance racially or religiously discriminatory practices, nor can they violate federal statutes in the process of raising funds and/or transmitting the funds overseas."

It is a foolish lawsuit - but it clearly demonstrates that the Palestinians and their supports, like those in the BDS movement, are getting creative in their attacks against Israel.

They are trying to hurt Israel in the pocket book.

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Iran Shoots at US Carrier
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 31, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday, December 26th, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired rockets dangerously close to the USS Harry Truman, the aircraft carrier of the US 5th Fleet. Also in the area was a French frigate.

The incident took place in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran gave the United States 23 minutes advance warning and then shot the rockets.

The rockets came within 1250 yards of the US ships.

The action was provocative, to say the least. There is no doubt that tensions are swelling in the region.

In the past the United States has attacked Iranian targets in the Straits and that has been the cause of great tension.

1988 was a very tense year. It all began in April when the Iranians almost sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts when it hit an Iranian landmine. Later that month the US sank oil platforms and 6 Iranian navy ships, including 2 frigates. And in July, the United States accidentally shot own an Iranian airliner killing 290 people. The US said that they mistook the airliner for an Iranian F-14 fighter jet.

Iranians still talk about these events and call for justice.

Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. Even a brief closure would be devastating to the oil market - about 30% of the world's oil passes through those straits every single day.

Tensions must be dialed down - now.

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ISIS Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has created an internet message forum that teaches and trains hackers on ways to invade and attack. The forum is found on a social messaging app called Telegram.
300 people have signed up.

On the site are tutorials and while most of the material can easily be found elsewhere on the net, this is one stop shopping. Many lectures and videos are in a single place making it easier for future cyber terrorists to learn their diabolical trade.

Telegram offers a 27-part video course on evaluating and then penetrating a computer system. It teaches how to find vulnerabilities and weaknesses. It gives tests and practice problems.

The hard reality is that learning these details will not convert the student into a hacker or, at least, not into a good hacker... one who can cause damage to a country or a city or a company.

Missing from this app is the creative energy and the problem solving skills. That is what really makes a great hacker.

ISIS is trying to hack. They succeeded in hacking into US Central Command's twitter feed and posted some tweets in January. But that is hardly a serious hack. Breaking into a twitter account is not like breaking into Central Command itself.

We must worry and we must protect ourselves from cyber attacks. ISIS wants to be a player in the world of cyber crime and they have some capable hackers. But in the meantime, the real threats come from China and from Russia and from the anarchists.

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Saudi Head Imam Says ISIS is Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Conspiracy is one of the hallmarks of Arabic culture and society.

But there are problems with conspiracy theories. They get in the way of history and truth. They prevent authentic evaluations. And they can be found almost everywhere, even in the highest echelons of power.

Abdul-Aziz al-Sheikh is the Mufti of Saudi Arabia. He is the most important Imam, or cleric, in the country. The Mufti analyzed ISIS and the threats made by ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi against Israel. Remember, Baghdadi released a radio message telling the world, and especially Israel, that ISIS has not forgotten the

Palestinians and that when Israel least expects it, ISIS will strike.
Saudi Imam Abdul-Aziz al-Sheikh told a Saudi newspaper that ISIS was actually Israel. He said that the radio presentation of ISIS was a hoax and that, in reality, ISIS is actually soldiers of Israel.

I couldn't make this stuff up. Here is the Imam Mufti's exact quote about Baghdadi: "his threat against Israel is entirely false. The reality of ISIS is that they are soldiers of Israel."

How can one even progress in any dialogue or any discussion when fundamental elements and facts cannot even be seen as truths?

It is like having a discussion with someone who says the world is flat or the sky is green. And this is the most important cleric in all of Saudi Arabia.

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ISIS in Sinai
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Sinai Desert might very well be where ISIS is most powerful and best organized right now. It is probably there that they are better organized than even in Syria in Yemen or even in Iraq.

The Sinai is home to Answar Bayt al Maqdis (ABM) which means the protectors of Jerusalem, aka (also known as) Wiliyat Sinai which means the Sinai Province.

ABM is over 10,000 fighters strong. That is a massive and significant number, especially considering that 30,000 is the number of fighters ISIS has in Iraq and Syria. They threaten Egypt regularly and they are right on Israel's border. Israel has increased their intelligence in Sinai as they expect that ABM will attempt an attack and there is very little chance that there will be any advanced warning.

Just a few days ago Israel's Special Forces conducted a surprise set of maneuvers in the south. They were role playing an ISIS attack in Eilat and Niztana.

ABM is the group that downed the Russia airliner in Sinai which killing 240 people. Now Israel is working very closely with Egypt and has increased every aspect of defense strategy.

What makes the fight against this ISIS affiliate so complicated is that the most feared and best organized Bedouin tribe in the region has become part of the ISIS block. The Sawarka tribe is the most brutal and the most powerful of the 26 tribes in the Sinai. Cross the Sawarka and you die.

The Sawarka began their business trade by smuggling drugs into Israel, then weapons and now people and just about everything else.
This tribe has 2,500 fighters plus 10,000 in reserve. They are divided into organized units with 75 to 100 fighters in each unit, each with clear roles and responsibilities. They are a professional fighting force.

This Bedouin tribe knows the terrain like no one else and they are extremely loyal. Right now the tribe favors ISIS - they have an alliance which will attack Egyptian forces and all Westerners.

The head of operations for Sawarka is Ibrahim al Manai. He has granted only one interview and it took place in a cafe in Caro. In the interview al Manai made it clear that his tribe is well outfitted and well trained in the use of numerous weapons and tactics.

Most importantly, it was clear from the interview that al Manai sees the Sinai as belonging to the Sawarka and they will not permit any outsider control over what it theirs.

None of this portends well.

The union between ISIS and a fierce Bedouin tribe with experience smuggling goods and people into Israel is a very serious and very dangerous nexus.

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ISIS Says They're Coming For Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS released a radio address on Saturday , December 26, in which the voice of their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is heard saying that he has not forgotten about Palestine and that ISIS is coming for the Jews.

He said "The Jews thought we forgot Palestine and that they had distracted us from it."

He continued "Not at all, Jews. We did not forget Palestine for a moment. With the help of Allah, we will not forget it ... The pioneers of the jihadist fighters will surround you on a day that you think is distant and we know is close. We are getting closer every day."

By "pioneers" Baghdadi means the first ISIS terrorists who have the plans and are plotting to attack Israel.

Israel is aware of the threat - and has been aware of it even without the warning delivered by this radio address, and is working to defend itself.

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Arabs Heckle Arab
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A world famous Arab expert in Islam, Dr. Omer Salem, was heckled at the University of Haifa.

From news coverage these days one would naturally think that the hecklers were Israeli Jews. But no, it was not Israeli Jews who heckled Dr. Salem.

Two Palestinian psychology students disrupted the lecture. They called Salem a collaborator and said that he had Palestinian blood on his hands.

Dr Omer Salem was born in Egypt. He teaches at Yale University. His area is what Islam thinks of Jews and the opposite and he has created an institute for bringing Jews and Arabs together. Salem focuses on Israel and also deals with other areas of the Middle East.

The hecklers shouted that "the blood of martyrs is spilled and you get the middle finger." In Arabic and Hebrew the expression is graphic and vulgar. In English - well, you get the idea. The hecklers shouted that Salem "should just go back to Egypt and solve their problems."

These two students succeeded in stopping the meeting. It was all caught on tape. Security came. The hecklers were referred to the university's committee on disciple.

The university responded by saying that it is unacceptable to disturb a presentation in an academic institution. The students will be punished. Freedom of expression and academic independence are essential.

The sad part is that these students represent the Balad party, an Israeli Arab party which is represented in the Israeli parliament. These students clearly have difficulty with freedom of speech.
There are ways to protest and ways to disagree. Heckling and being disrespectful is not a time honored democratic principle, However, freedom of speech and freedom of expression are.

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China's New anti Terror Laws
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Chinese are about to pass their new anti-terrorism law.

Everyone in the counter terror community, including Western politicians, is waiting to see how strict it will be and how wide the span of this new Chinese law will be.

The basis of the law is that all technology will be required to have a back door and all providers will be required to provide encryption keys to the government. That includes media, internet, phones, cell phones, computers - everything.

Obviously, there are many concerns about the abuse of personal rights which, for many years, has been a concern in China.

In the West, governments have asked businesses to turn over their encryptions and so far they have declined. The most obvious example is Apple. The iPhone6 has a very simple yet highly effective encryption system. When asked by Homeland Security to turn over the encryption key, Apple demurred and said doing so would violate the privacy of their customers.

It is almost impossible to crack these encryption systems and the
more they are used by terrorists, the safer terrorists will feel and the easier it will be for them to coordinate and execute their attacks.

A balance must be achieved between preserving citizen privacy and tracking terrorists and terrorist activities.

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Jordan Says Hamas Leader Not Welcome
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has decided not to allow Khaled Mashaal to visit their country. Mashaal is the head of Hamas.

In 1999 he was officially expelled from Jordan and Hamas offices there were closed down. Since then Mashaal, who has Jordanian citizenship, has visited only once - with permission, in 2012.

Jordanian leadership believes that Mashaal and Hamas will disrupt Jordan. They think that Mashaal will incite and agitate.

The purpose of this trip is to celebrate the release from prison of Muslim Brotherhood leader Zaki Bani Ershaid. It is Ershaid who was guilty of harming relations between Jordan and the UAE.

Jordan told Mashaal that he was not welcome at this time. In other words, circumstances might change. These things happen. At another time, he might be permitted to visit.

For instance, in 2012 when Mashaal last visited Jordan he met with the king. That is significant. Mashaal went from an audience with the king to not being permitted.

At this point Mashaal and Hamas are seen as problems by the Hashemite Kingdom. We will see what happens as time passes.

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Israel Targets Evil Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There is little doubt that Israel targeted Samir Kuntar, the infamous Druze terrorist and Hezbollah leader.

Israel released Kuntar from prison where he was serving successive life terms for perpetrating a horrific terror attack that included the brutal murder of a young Jewish Israeli girl. After having the child witness the drowning and shooting of her own father, he crushed her skull.

Israel released Kuntar in exchange for the remains of the bodies of two Israelis that were being held by Hezbollah.

Samir Kuntar returned to Lebanon a hero.

So why kill him?

Kuntar was not targeted for what he did - that would require a judge and jury. Kuntar was targeted because he was plotting more terror attacks. Israel had Intel that he was coordinating a series of attacks from Lebanon and Syria into Israel.

That knowledge elevated the targeting of Samir Kuntar to an act of self defense.

This was not an act of vengeance. Vengeance is not justice and vengeance is immoral -- vengance is not how Israel behaves.

Given Samir Kuntar's history and the intelligence it was clear that innocent Israeli lives were at stake. Targeting the terrorist was morally justified and it was legal.

An interesting aside to this story is that part of his exchange was that Samir Kuntar signed a contract not to engage, organize or be involved in any form of terror.

Hah!

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Belgium's Laws Prevent Searching for Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Belgians have detained - not arrested, only detained one person in connection with last month's horrific terror attacks in Paris.

There has been very little progress that has been made public. The person detained was not the ring leader Abdelhamid Abaoud. He is still at large.

Belgium almost caught him last week. They knew where he was staying the night of the attack, but he escaped.

You will not believe this, but t is against the law for the police in Belgium to conduct a raid after 9 PM and before 5 AM.

Abaoud discovered that the police were waiting for him so he slipped out of the apartment where he had been staying, during the night.

The law is in place so that Belgian people are not disturbed by police making noise at night. It is impolite and not urbane or cultured to have such activity at night.

The laws of Belgium must be changed.

Terrorists do not care about disturbing the quiet of the night. The police cannot be limited by such ridiculous limitations. They need to find and capture the mastermind of this terror cell.

Belgium should not be a safe haven for terrorists.

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New Poll in West Bank Prefers Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Surveys and polls work one of two ways - either they surprise us or they confirm what we thought.

A new poll surveying Palestinians shows that Palestinian youth today are radicalized and think that violence is justified and that through that violence they will achieve their goals. This is a marked change.

The survey also showed that the motivation for these actions is not religious, it is political. Those surveyed say that their reason for supporting violence and the reason for violence is to achieve a political objective.

Finally, and this is the most telling of all the results of the new survey, is that if an election were held in the West Bank today, Mahmoud Abbas, the current leader of Fatah and president of the Palestinian Authority, would overwhelmingly lose by at least 10 percentage points to Ismail Haniyeh the leader of Hamas in Gaza.
This is a damning blow to the establishment.

The West Bank is becoming more and more radicalized. This new study confirms our sense that young people are disenchanted with Abbas and the Fatah establishment and that West Bank youth are embracing violence as a tool to achieve their objectives.

That thinking poses a serious threat to a peaceful resolution to the situation between the Palestinians and Israel.

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Kuwaiti Air Shuts Route -- Told to Accept Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The US Department of Transportation has ruled that Kuwaiti Airlines was in violation of US law by not allowing an Israeli named Eldad Gatt to travel on their airline from JFK in NYC to Heathrow in London in 2013.

Gatt complained to the DOT. At first they rejected his claim. He appealed and the DOT found Kuwaiti Airlines in violation.

Kuwaiti Airlines said that they were following their laws which prohibit any business with Israelis or with Israel. The punishment for violating that law in Kuwait is very strict and includes imprisonment and hard labor.

The DOT ruled that "We considered Mr. Gatt's claim upon an alternative ground ... which holds that an 'air carrier or foreign air carrier may not subject a person, place, port, or type of traffic in foreign air transportation to unreasonable discrimination."

The DOT said that Kuwaiti laws do not outweigh the US law against discrimination where the destination permits Israelis to take off and land.

Kuwait appealed the ruling on November 23.

In response, Kuwait has simply shut down their NYC London route. It was very profitable route but they decided to close it rather than lose to the DOT while the case is in appeal.

Kuwaiti Air still flies from NYC to Kuwait and Israelis are not permitted to purchase a ticket. That does not violate US law because Kuwait does not allow Israeli passport holders to enter their country.

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US Travel Warning for Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday The US State Department issued a travel warning concerning Israel.

The statement was issued in order to call attention to US travelers to Israel because of what it calls "heightened tensions and security risks."

The warning is worded in almost the same language as previous warnings saying that the "security situation can change day to day, depending on the political situation, recent events, and geographic area." It lets travelers know that US government employees cannot travel on public buses and that certain areas are off limits.

Then the warning editorializes, saying that these are the worse tension in over a decade.

"Since October 2015, attacks on individuals and groups have occurred with increased frequency in East and West Jerusalem, Hebron, and Bethlehem, as well as various other places in the West Bank and Israel, including Tel Aviv."

"More than 12 US citizens have been among those killed and injured in multiple attacks in 2014 and 2015," it added.

The warning asks Americans to be aware and sensitive to religious cultures, Muslim sites and increased tensions on Friday and on Muslim holidays.

The State Department needs to do this, they need to issue warning and protect US citizens.

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Kerry Folds to Putin
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry had a very long meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting lasted three and a half hours.
Supposedly, Kerry was there for tough talks.

After the meeting Kerry said that the US and Russia see Syria "fundamentally very similarly." He added that: "The United States and its partners are not seeking so-called regime change as it is known in Syria."

I think everyone was shocked to hear this.

The United States has been pushing a regime change since the very beginning of the conflict. What was Kerry really trying to say? And how is it possible that the US and Russia see eye to eye?

The secretary of state explained it this way: "Despite the different positions of our countries, we have shown that Russia and the United States are moving in the same direction."

In Kerry's eyes he and Putin were trying to discuss items that they both agreed on. So as opposed to continuing along the same path with the United States pushing for the ousting Assad, the US Secretary of State instead spoke about creating a vehicle of political transition - which is just another way of saying let's oust Assad.

Russia knows how to play that game, too. So Putin agreed to what Kerry said, knowing full well that the only way there will be any stability in Syria is with Assad in place. Putin also knows that Assad needs to part of any political process.

Kerry also said that the United States does not wish to "isolate Russia." But from an analytical point of view, it looks like the US has capitulated to Russia. Kerry termed that "charting a course out of hell" - referring to the Syria situation.

It's no wonder Putin looked so happy in official press photos.

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Why People are Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

65 nations are part of the coalition to fight ISIS. Many of them are Muslim countries.

Do not be deceived. They are in it for their own interests, not for the common goal.

Let's just go through a few and you will understand.

Start with the Turks. Turkey's main objective is to destroy the Kurds. They are using the ISIS situation as a cover to help further their own anti-Kurd actions.

Next, the mostly Shiite Iraqi army. They are taking advantage of the situation and getting rid of Sunni tribal forces. Iran is siding with the Shiite militias and striking out against Sunni fighters everywhere. The Iranians want to attack all Sunni fighters whether in Iraq or in Syria.

As for Russia, the Russians come from the outside and they are hitting Sunni forces throughout Syria.

We think that the fighting is between the 65 countries in the coalition and ISIS. That is not true. There is a huge amount of internal fighting going on, both Sunni to Sunni and Shiite to Sunni fighting.

Some of the feuds go back centuries, others are more current battles centering on today's power struggles and the control of essential resources, roads and lookouts.

And we cannot forget that even ISIS is fighting not just against the West, but also against al Qaeda and all its various spinoffs. Almost everyone is fighting someone.

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MUD is Not What You Think
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Have you ever heard of MUD. Not the dirty wet sludge that we dread when it gets on our kids' clothes.

MUD is a method of attacking social media.

Israel is one of the world leaders in understanding the internet and hacking. So why has Israel permitted such anti- Israel vitriol on the world wide web? They could easily take it down. Why have they let it go on?
MUD stands for Monitor, Use and Destroy.

This is how MUD works. First thing you do is watches the websites. That's the Monitor part.

After you watch all the websites and detect what is happening in world wide web you have your hackers use the site and try to manipulate the site through the use of outsiders. This second level of interaction tries to influence content through the users. That's the USE part.

Finally comes DESTROY. The last step is to destroy a site, to flood it and to bring it down. The problem with just bringing down a site is that, in a matter of a short period of time, the site will be resurrected elsewhere in a matter of hours, sometimes days.

Shutting down a site is not the best way to stop a message. They pop up again too quickly. The concept of using and manipulating a site through its existing users is a great risk. There is no way of knowing what will happen.

That leaves us with monitoring the sites as the best method of dealing with the anti-Semites. Israel can easily bring down these anti-Semitic sites, but the best way to really deal with these sites is to monitor them and nothing more.

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Gay Iranian Poet Escapes To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

This story almost sounds like it is made up. But it is not made up and it touches on an essential difference between Iran and Israel.

A 30 year old, gay, Iranian, poet named Payam Feili escaped Iran and is now in Israel - where he wants to stay. Feili is the author of nine books and many other works including a novella which was made into a play and is now being performed in Tel Aviv. It is entitled "I Will Grow I Will Bear Fruit ...Figs."

Feili came to Tel Aviv to see his play performed.

Iranian police arrested Feili three times over four years. His charge for most of the arrests was being gay. He fled Iran because, he said, it was too much. During his last arrest, Feili was held for 44 days without being charged. He was blindfolded and kept in a shipping container. The reason for that arrest was agreeing to have his book translated into Hebrew and sold in Israel.

Human rights groups say that over the last few years, 4,000 people have been executed in Iran for being gay.

Feili has been fascinated by Israel since he was a little kid.
Tel Aviv is a very open city and is one of the most gay-friendly cities in the world. It is constantly garnering top positions as a popular Mecca for gay culture

Feili is happy to be in Israel and during an interview he said: "All the stupid and ridiculous threats the regime issues against Israel have never influenced me and will never influence me."

Iran and Israel are arch enemies. Iran has pledged to wipe Israel off the map and Iranian leaders often call Israel a cancer.

Feili is proving a point. He escaped the restrictions and rigidity and oppression of Iran and is seeking refuge and freedom to be who he is, in Israel.

This is one of those great stories where evil is evil and good is good.

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Catholics Church Says Don't Convert Jews
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Vatican's Commission for Religious Relations with Jews released an official statement which is now the official policy of the Catholic Church and is endorsed by the Pope. The new policy is very clear. Do not try to convert Jews.

The statement reads: "The Church is therefore obliged to view evangelization to Jews, who believe in the one God, in a different manner from that to people of other religions and world views."
The Church is asking Catholics: "to do all that is possible with our Jewish friends to repel anti-Semitic tendencies".

"A Christian can never be an anti-Semite, especially because of the Jewish roots of Christianity," it said.

The document called on Catholics to: "bear witness to their faith in Jesus Christ also to Jews" but that they should do so in "a humble and sensitive manner, acknowledging that Jews are bearers of God's word."

This is the most direct statement the Church has made. They are saying hands off.

This is a follow up to Vatican II which made it clear that Jews today do not bear responsibility for the death of Jesus.

This new statement says that Judaism is not some pagan, it is not a foreign tradition. It is saying that Judaism is the original tradition upon which Christianity is based and it is saying that Jesus was, unequivocally, a Jew.

The Vatican has taken a major step forward.

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It's Chanukah
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It's Chanukah and the White House hosted its annual party. This year's guest of honor, the person who lit the White House menorah, was Israel's president Reuven Rivlin.

Before the event Rivlin and Obama met and conducted a media session. The meeting went well and, so did the press conference that followed.

True to form, Obama could not let an opportunity slip by without, in some way, chastising Israel about the situation with the Palestinians. The president told Rivlin that while it may be that peace is far away, none the less, Israel should still try hard.

There was, of course, a menorah lighting service in Jerusalem at the Prime Minister's residence, as well. That ceremony was far different from the ceremony at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The Netanyahu family dog took a bite out of both a member of Knesset and the husband of the deputy foreign minister. The medical team assigned to the prime minister treated the victims.

Four more nights to go.

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Terror Dolls Stopped in Haifa Port
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

4,000 dolls were confiscated in the Haifa port.

The dolls were packed and labeled as clothing, carpets and plastic.

Male dolls wore a scarf emblazoned with a picture of the Al Aqsa Shrine. Writing on the scarf read "Jerusalem - We are Coming," and "We are Jerusalem."

The heads of the dolls were wrapped in black and white kafiyahs, only the eyes were visible.

Each doll's hand clenched a rock and the arm was raised and cocked as if ready to throw the rock.

Inspectors stopped the dolls at the port because there was absolutely no doubt but that the toys were a tool for incitement and hatred.
Authorities termed the dolls "inciting dolls."

Thousands of containers enter Haifa every day and there is no way of checking them all. The inspectors profile each container. This container came from UAE and seemed suspicious so it was x-rayed and the dolls were discovered.

This is really a treasure trove of a toy chest.

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The Last Nazi
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Germany is putting a 93 year old man named Reinhold Hanning on trial. Hanning is charged with 170,000 counts of accessory to murder. Reinhold was an SS guard in Auschwitz.

The trial will begin in February and will probably be one of the last Nazi trials. We will watch it carefully. The case will only be heard in two hours daily doses because of Hanning's age and health.

Hanning admits that he was a guard in Auschwitz I. Auschwitz I was a prison not a death camp. He claims that he was not in Birkenau, also known as Auschwitz II, which was where 1.1 million Jews were murdered.

The Germans will also be following this case very closely. They need to teach the lesson that evil is evil and it does not matter how old Hanning is now. What was done was wrong.

He might be the Last Nazi.

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Farouk's Father's Words of Wisdom
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Sayd Farouk's father Rahil gave an interview to the Italian media outlet La Stampa. He told them how "polite" Sayd was and what a "good man" he was.

The father gave insight into the advice that he gave his son. The father's words of wisdom were, in his own eyes, supposed to calm his son and to assure us that Sayd Farouk was not a murderous terrorist.

The father said that Farouk supported ISIS and its leader Baghdadi.
He was particularly pleased with the role of ISIS as it stood to confront Israel.

This is what he said:
"I always told him, 'remain calm, be patient; Israel won't exist in another two years ... The geopolitical situation is changing; Russia, China, even the US - no one wants the Jews there anymore. They'll send them back to Ukraine."

These ideas are coming from Farouk's father and they are hardly moderate. One can only imagine how extreme the son's ideas and actions were if this is considerate moderate thinking.


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PA Supports Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Let's all agree that terror is evil -- it is simply wrong and there is no excuse and no justification for terror. Especially, when the terror is perpetrated by members of the police or security forces.

On Thursday when a Palestinian security intelligence person stopped his car at Hizma junction, exited his car and opened fire wounding Israelis and a Palestinian, just north of Jerusalem. We should all agree that it was wrong.

The terrorist was killed on the spot. His name was Mazen Hassan Orbia. In 1992 his father stabbed an Israeli. In 2002 his nephew was killed stabbing an Israeli on Jaffa Street in Jerusalem. Orbia carried out his terror attack the day after the anniversary of his cousin's attack in 2002.

This is clear cut.

What is not clear is why Saeb Erakat, chairman of the Palestinian National Committee and chief Palestinian negotiator with Israel, visited the Orbia family on Saturday together with the governor of Jericho.

Palestinian leadership often visits terrorist's families - but this is the first time such a high ranking official visited a terrorist's family.

I read about the visit in MA'AN news which is a Palestinian news agency. They were very clear as to the sequence of event - the shootings and the death of the terrorist. They were very clear that Erekat visited and showed a wonderful picture of him sitting in the family living room.

Why did Saeb Erekat make this very public visit to the family of a man - a man whose job it was to protect others - a man who, unquestionably, committed a blatant act of terrorism?

The only reason I can formulate is that Erekat came as a representative of Palestinian leadership and Palestinian leadership openly agrees with and supports this kind of terror - not just stabbings, but shootings. Not just actions taken by ordinary citizens, but also actions taken by their security members.

There is no other explanation.

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It Was Terror in San Bernardino
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Why is it so hard to call what happened in San Bernardino TERROR.

The answer depends on what you are hoping to accomplish and what your stance is on certain issues.

The Fort Hood terror attack is still called "workplace violence" even though the murderer was in direct email contact with Islamic radical leaders who call for mass murder and jihad against America.

The FBI says that because the perpetrator acted alone, because he was not part of a group, it is not terror.

They are afraid to call it terror - and they certainly refuse to call it Islamic terror. They refuse to see the simple reality.

Two Muslims planned and organized attacks on Americans. They were radicalized. The targets were clear and the attack precision perfect.

Many people are refusing to call it terror because that would mean that the murderers do not fit into a narrative. Instead, they put the perpetrators into a false narrative that calls them "crazy" and "unstable unwanted and troubled".

Others do not want to call it terror because people are afraid of what Islamic terror means in America.

Finally, people do not want to offend Muslims.

These terrorists were not unstable. They were cold and calculating. They were mass murderers. Repeat after me. It was an act of terror and the perpetrators of the act were terrorists. Say it again.

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OPEC Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC will meet on Friday. Expect fireworks. The conflict will be between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Many issues are at stake. The most important issue is, who sets the tone and who is leader. It is all about power.

OPEC is responsible for 1/3 of the world's oil and they have tried to control the price of oil by controlling the supply of oil. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer by far pumping 10 million barrels per day.

Iran is trying to re-emerge as an oil producing power and they are producing 1 million barrels per day.

But oil dropped below $40 a barrel this week and OPEC is considering limiting production. That can be dangerous.

Iran wants to limit oil in the market to drive up prices. If only it was as simple as that ubiquitous supply and demand graph in Econ 101.

In 1985 and 1986, Saudi Arabia played with supply and dropped their output from 10 million barrels per day to 2.5 million. That decision caused a drop in revenue that resulted in a 16 year cash crisis for Saudi Arabia and turned the oil market volatile.

Now, 30 years later, Saudi Arabia is thinking of suggesting a reduction of production - but that is also what Iran wants and given the tumultuous state of affairs and the conflicts between these two nations, that would be a gift that the Saudis probably don't want to give Iran.

In 2011 the Saudis walked out of the meeting because they wanted to increase production. Today the Saudis are locked in conflict in Yemen. They are locked in conflict in Syria. They are locked in conflict in Bahrain. This may be one of the most contentious OPEC meetings in their 168 meeting history.

Over the course of the past few meetings the Saudis have convinced the members of OPEC that playing with supply, despite falling prices, will hurt everyone and by keeping production stable they can predict the market.

Of course, the side benefit of keeping supply stable is that Iran cannot increase either its power ot its coffers. And that is a real benefit to the Saudis.

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ISIS Cell in Georgia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Georgia is a former Soviet republic.

Yesterday the Georgians arrested the members of an ISIS cell.
Counter terrorist police found stockpiles of guns, grenades, audio equipment, communication devices, computers, videos and discs.
Of course the group had ISIS flags.

The cell was situated in the area around the Black Sea. There is a significant Muslim population in that area, but traditionally, it is a Christian area and there have been no tensions.

In the past most terror cells and arrests in Georgia have taken place in the northeast of the country. The northeast is home to the many ethnic Chechens living in Georgia.

Georgia security officials are not commenting on the arrests. Nor are they discussing the dramatic difference between this group and its location versus the ethnic Chechens.

It should be obvious.

The Chechens are fighting for independence. They happen to be Muslims and they are attacking Christians, Georgians and, of course, Russians. They want a Chechen state which will be a Muslim state.

On the other hand -- and this must be worrying the Georgian authorities --- ISIS is fighting to create a caliphate. And then they want to take over the world.

There is the difference.

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Where Will Russian Run Escape The Cold
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The conflict between Russia and Turkey has significant ripple effects.

For example, Russia is no longer importing fruits and vegetables from Turkey. The official reason for the ban is contamination of the imported produce. We, of course, know that the real reason is that Turkey shot down a Russia air force bomber.

This is a huge loss to Turkey. 20% of Russian fruits and vegetables are imported from Turkey.

Russia announced that they will pick up the difference by importing fruits and vegetables from Iran and Israel. This, in turn, will be a big boon for Israeli produce exporters.

At the same time, Russians love to escape the cold winters and they were accustomed to fleeing to Turkey. Turkish hotels and charters included very inexpensive, all inclusive, deals. No Israeli hotel can compete with the price, the service, or the standard that Turkey easily provided.

Never the less, the Israeli Hotel Association is lobbying for a huge immediate investment of government tourist advertising funds in an effort to woo this potential new tourist pool. Some Russians might be swayed to come to Israel despite the significant price difference. But most will not.

Also taken off the agenda for Russian vacationers are the chartered, all inclusive trips to the Sinai. ISIS took care of that when they blew up a Russian vacation charter jet killing 224 people.

Sinai was another perfect place for Russian to vacation during the cold winter. And again, the hotels in the Sinai were luxurious and inexpensive.

One night in a 5 star Jerusalem hotel is the cost of a week in Sinai or Turkey.

But at least Israel, along with Iran, will be providing tomatoes to Russia.

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Israel Did Not Shoot Down A Russian Jet
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A Russian jet fighter wandered into Israeli airspace ... but it was not shot down. There are several reasons for that.

As I have mentioned, there are 14 separate air forces operating over Syria and there are bound to be mistakes. In this case the Russian jet flew 1.5 kilometers, or about 1 mile, into Israeli airspace and then quickly turned around.

The main reason the plane was not shot down is communication. Israel informed Russia and the Russians told their pilot to turn about.
Communication between Russia and Israel is at the highest operational level. Heads of both air forces met in Tel Aviv to discuss procedures and agreed to inform one another in advance of when they would be operating.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "Russian planes don't intend to attack us and therefore there is no need to automatically, even if there is some kind of mistake, shoot them down."

There have been several Israeli strikes in to Syria and several Russian strikes that hit very close to Israel but they have not become "incidents."

Israel tracks and watches everything that happens in Syria. They monitor the land, sea and air. All this is done to both insure Israel's safety and to gauge the pulse and movement of the conflict within Syria.

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Allahu Akbar is #1 Song in England
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Guess what the # 1 song on the British music chart was this week.

It's a song called "Allahu Akbar." The artist performing the song goes by the name DJ Inappropriate. It repeats the words Allahu Akbar, just a dance track and the song title.

Allahu Akbar means Allah is Great.

According to Spotify rankings, "Allahu Akbar" is # 5 on the international chart. Spotify is an excellent method by which to judge the popularity of a single these days.

The song is very popular on the radio and in clubs as well.
"Allahu Akbar" is a dance song. It has been rising slowly in popularity for the past seven months. Since the simultaneous terror attacks in Paris the dance track for "Allahu Akbar" has been high up in the charts hitting the # 1 spot this week.

Some might say that this is a good thing, that it is a healthy response to Islamic terror. Dance instead of kill.

The words Allahau Akbar are part of normal parlance in Islamic prayer and Arabic interaction. In English they are parallel to saying Thank God.

But in the West, these two Arabic words are understood to be a chilling call to murder. Many of the terrorists in Paris shouted Allahu Akbar as they blew themselves up and it is the phrase that was used as other terrorists began shooting at innocent people.

We don't know the reason this title was chosen for the song. DJ Inappropriate is not coming forward to explain.

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Europe is Clueless
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Europe is clueless about the scourge of terror ravaging the continent.

For decades, Europeans refused to consider themselves part of the problem and refused to entertain the notion that they needed to clamp down on the terror that was swilling around them. Even events of the past few years and these past few months did not sway them.

Leaders, governments, courts, police - none of them had any idea of how deep, how pervasive, how dangerous and how powerful the terror had grown in their own societies.

One would have thought that the Charlie Hebdo attack would have been a wakeup call. Sadly, it was not. We can only hope that the most recent attacks that horrified Paris finally woke Europe up.

There is one sign that change may be happening.

A Belgium court convicted a famous comedian of hate speech and sentenced him to two months in prison and 9000 Euros (about $9500).

Dieudonne M'Bala M'Bala, known simply as Dieudonne, has been the center of much hate humor over the past decade. He claims his material is protected by free speech and that it is political and social commentary - not hatred. The court in Belgium has disagreed.

Dieudonne is best known for his "quenelle." I call it the inverted Nazi salute. Right arm stretched down instead of up. Left arm across chest.

The "quenelle" became a symbol of anti-Semitism. Europeans took pictures of themselves posed in front of synagogues, next to Holocaust survivors, at Holocaust memorials, even in soccer matches and at the Western Wall.

Europe must crack down on hate - on symbols of hate and on hate speech. Terror organizations cannot be protected under freedoms of democracy.

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ISIS Recruits Friends & Relatives
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Scott Atran, co-founder of the Center for the Resolution of Intractable Conflict at Oxford University, made public some very interesting information about the study of ISIS recruits.

Atran said that 75% of all ISIS recruits are recruited by friends.
He also said that 20 % of ISIS recruits are recruited by family -- that means siblings and cousins.

He admitted that mosques have become radicalized but ISIS recruitment very seldom comes from the mosques.

Anecdotal evidence seems to confirm Atran's research and his assertions. We see many sects which include friends from the same neighborhood. These are friendships that date back decades. When looking at those who perpetrate terror attacks we see an uncanny number of siblings and cousins.

This means that radicalized mosques are not the hotbed of recruitment that we may have thought. And hard core recruiters are less effective than we gave them credit for.

Contacts and connections are the most effective recruitment tools.
This knowledge should allow us another set of methods to use to interrupt recruitment. Find friends and find siblings.

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14 Air Forces Fly in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian SU-24 yesterday. This is a very ominous set of events. Turkey is claiming that they warned the Russian pilot ten times in five minutes to leave Turkish air space.

Russia will not let this action go unanswered.

The atmosphere is very tense in the air in and around Syria. Fourteen air forces fly in Syrian skies. Fourteen! That fact alone is cause for worry - mistakes are made all the time.

The US, Britain, Canada, France, Australia, Russia, Israel, China, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Turkey and of course Syria all fly around in Syria. They are bound to bounce up against one another and it is inevitable that some country, at some time, will fly out of bounds.

But Russia and Turkey have been testing one another for over a decade. This is not the first skirmish between them that involves planes.

The first incident took place in 2012. A Turkish F-4 reconnaissance plane was shot down. Then a year and a half later Turkey shot down a Syrian MIG and a helicopter. The Turks have repeatedly said that the Russians are violating their airspace. On October 3rd it was reported that a MIG locked onto a Turkish jet.

Russia is now expanding its plane arsenal. They are doubling their number of planes over the next few weeks.

As I said - this was not the first and it will certainly not be the last time there is an incident in the skies of Syria, and it is not the first and not the last time there will be aerial conflict between Russia and Turkey.

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Finally US See ISIS for What it IS!
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is revamping its perspective on ISIS objectives. Finally!

For the past 18 months the US has called ISIS a "regional threat" and insisted that ISIS was not interested in striking any targets outside of the Middles East.

Of course - that was wrong from the outset.

The US evaluation was so off-base that it endangered not only the US but also Western allies around the world.

To put it succinctly, the US has been absolutely clueless about anything and everything ISIS. Thankfully, they have now re-adjusted their understanding of ISIS and know that it is a world threat and a real and significant threat to the US.

The truth was staring them in the face, but US leaders refused to see it because their preferred ISIS narrative did not see them as a world danger. Not even Charlie Hebdo shook the US out of their fantasy.

The signs and signals were there. But they refused to hear the wake-up calls.

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Missed Red Flags Of Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 23, 3015

I've Been Thinking:

Red flags were missed about the Paris attacks. And for some reason that I cannot understand, mainstream media has not made this information public. It is time for people to know.

These were not small flags, they were major flags.

The list is long. Here are some examples:

One of the terrorists had an international arrest warrant out on him, another was on an international watch list.

A third terrorist had missed his check-in with his official police monitor for three weeks in a row.

Some of the terrorist had been deported to Belgium from Turkey.
Turkey conveyed details of how the terrorists were involved in plans and other information. Then the terrorists arrived in Belgium they said it was untrue they were let go.

Several terrorists were members of a known terror ring in Belgium.

The French were warned by Turkey about this terrorist attack and only after the Friday night horror did France ask for details. Twice they were warned about the first suicide bomber Omar Ismael Msutafei.
Turkey named him by name. Sadly he was the first one identified as a suicide bomber.

According to the reports in Europe there were 24 people in the cell that pulled off the attacks. That included a sleeper cell in France and Belgium. The training for the attacks, run through as well as the planning took place in Raqqa Syria, which is an ISIS regional capital.

Aba'aoud, the ring leader, had bragged that he was able to enter and leave Belgium and Europe at will and without fear of being detained.

Two brothers, Saleh and Ibrahim Abdeslem, were on watch lists.
Ibrahim blew himself up in Paris that Friday night on Boulevard Volatire. Seleh his brother fled to escape. He was apprehended on Saturday, the day after, at the Belgium border and after a short interview he was released and is now in the wind.

Wow. I could not make up these details and they are only a handful of the snafus from before and after the horrific terror attack in Paris.

It is not just France and Belgium that are at fault - the entire system is not set up to stop these acts of terror.

Terror suspects are a different breed. They are not simply criminals. Countries need to apply a different set of conditions of due process.

The threshold for evidence needs to be changed and it needs to be lowered. Police should not need enough evidence for prosecutors to decide whether to charge and convict as they do with common criminals.

The only evidence they should need is the information necessary in order to follow, track.

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Pollard's 1st Wife Sues Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Now that Jonathan Pollard has been released on parole there are other details that need to be brought out into the open.

As is often the case, t story is not so simple or straight forward.
Pollard's first wife Anne served 40 months in jail and was released early. She was part of the plea deal that Jonathan made. That deal was later thrown out by the judge.

In 1990, after she was released from prison, she and Jonathan divorced. After Anne got out of jail she came to Israel for a while, but returned to the States.

Now she is suing Israel. She says that throughout the 30 years that Jonathan Pollard was in prison, Israel portrayed her as a crazy woman.

Over the years Anne has tried to get assistance from Israel but they rejected her. She and her father live in NYC and an Israeli embassy official has visited them and discovered that they are both ill and live in terrible poverty.

Now Prime Minister Netanyahu has set up a team to help her. He is said to have told them that Israel has a moral obligation to help them.

It should never have come to this level.

The legal suit being brought by Anne Pollard against Israel has merit.

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What Turns A Kid Into A Suicide Bomber
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Hasna Aitboulahcen is the name of the 26 year old terrorist in Paris who blew herself up at the safe house as police were closing in to arrest her and her colleagues.

She actually played the victim card and asked the police to come in - but only so that the closer they were to her, the more of them she could kill as she blew herself up.

Instead of police men, Diesel, the police dog was killed in her suicide explosion.

This 26 year old daughter of Moroccan immigrants was a party animal. By all accounts she loved to drink and dance. Then she became hooked on ISIS and turned herself into a suicide mass murderer.

What makes a young woman switch gears so quickly? She was clearly impressionable ... but so are many other women her age.

The answer rests with the recruitment, the recruiters and the media propaganda. ISIS PR is very slick and very convincing. They make young Muslims feel needed and they give them purpose.

Most importantly, ISIS recruiters and the accompanying ISIS propaganda lends these young men and women a tool with which they can redeem and return the honor of Islam in a world that dishonors Islam.

That is how ISIS works. That is why ISIS is so successful at what they do.

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ISIS Bomb
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS released a picture of the type of bomb they used to blow up the Russian airliner that departed from Sharm el Sheik, Egypt.

It was a Schweppes Gold can. Schweppes Gold is a pineapple flavored carbonated soft drink. A huge Schweppes bottling plant is located in Egypt.

This can was put onto the plane. It was probably brought on with the refreshments and nestled between the rest of the drinks.

A tiny explosive - one as small as 500-700 grams which is about the size of a ping pong ball, is enough to blow a hole in a plane's fuselage and cause it to crash.

The soft drink can was hollow allowing for the explosive and ignition switch and timer fit in perfectly. The terrorists probably packed the can so that it did not rattle and made certain that the weight of their can was exactly the same weight as a full can.

Then the terrorists planted the bomb in the guise of a can with drinks that were being loaded onto the plane. That was probably the weakness in security to which ISIS referred.

Another possibility is that part of the cleaning and service crew planted the can in the garbage. Because, as garbage in a closed bin like one in airplane bathrooms, the can would not have been out of place and the worker would not have looked suspicious carrying a Schweppes Gold can.

This was a terrible terror attack and ISIS is rubbing our noses in it.

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Don't Mess w Soccer in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Europeans are very serious about their soccer or, as they call it, football. Don't ever mess with European football.

The terror in Paris on Friday messed with their football. Three near simultaneous suicide bombers blew themselves up at the stadium that was hosting a football match between Germany and France.
The bombers, as we all well know by now, never made it into the stadium - they blew themselves up outside.

And then, yesterday, European football was messed with again.
This time it was in Hanover, Germany at a match between Germany and the Netherlands. The game was cancelled 90 minutes before it began.

There was a substantial and credible threat of a bomb.

About the stadium scare - a report came in that security found an emergency vehicle filled with explosives. Police did not confirm the report. Also, a local reporter on CNN International reported that a bomb was found at a train station in Hanover. The station was evacuated and people were sent home in an orderly fashion. And then a concert that was supposed to start was cancelled and everyone was sent home.

It is hard to generalize about a large group of people, but Europeans love their soccer and they will not take kindly to people who are disturbing and interrupting their games, even exhibitions matches.

This terror may have an unintended consequence. It may rile up the Europeans enough that they start to protect themselves not only at stadiums, but at other public events and locations, as well.

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Hackers Declare War on ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Anonymous is a confederation of computer hackers. They are a notorious group. And they have successfully attacked numerous sites around the world.

Anonymous attacked the NY Stock Exchange as part of the Occupy Wall Street Movement. In June of 2015 they shut down the entire internet system of the government of Canada. Anonymous has hacked presidents and prime ministers and defense departments.

Anonymous has also hacked and shut down child porn sites. They have hit banks and private industry like Koch Industries. They also orchestrated a large systematic attack against the Church of Scientology.

Yesterday, Anonymous posted a video to YouTube and declared war on ISIS. The video was in French. The reader was wearing a Guy Fawkes mask and announced that Anonymous will search, will attack and will destroy ISIS.

The reader pledged that Anonymous will find the ISIS website, ISIS players and ISIS contributors and they will destroy them. By destroy
Anonymous means that they will wipe out the ability of ISIS to use the internet. Wherever anything ISIS pops up, Anonymous will shut them down.

Anonymous "declared war" on ISIS.

It was not an idle threat. This is the second time that Anonymous has declared war on ISIS. The first time was after the Charlie Hebdo attack.

Anonymous is very capable. They have people all over the world. Most are good hackers - some are exceptional hackers. The exceptional ones are driven. They do not stop.

Some of the hackers are kids. The first person arrested in the United States for being part of Anonymous was a 19 year old. His name was Dmitry Gunzer. He served 366 days in federal prison.

Anonymous is very dangerous. They tend to like anarchy, but they are also fiercely protective of individual rights - especially the right to live one's own life. And that is why Anonymous has targeted ISIS.

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Paris Theatre Was A Jewish Target
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The central target of the ISIS terror attack in Paris on Friday night was the Bataclan theatre.

These terrorists did not select the theatre out of convenience, it was selected because it has been a well known Jewish establishment for decades. Until September the theatre was owned by Jews, two brothers named Marcel and Joel Laloux.

The Bataclan theatre has been the centerpiece of many Jewish conferences and events. Even fundraisers for Friends of the IDF have taken place in the hall. And indeed, over the years, the theatre has been the target of many threats and attempted terror attacks.

Since 2007, numerous videos have been released that threaten the Bataclan theatre. In 2011, Farouk bin Abbas, an Islamic terrorist, admitted under interrogation that he planned to attack the theatre with his terror organization Jayish al Islam.

The reason Abbas gave for planning an attack on that particular theatre was that the owners were Jewish. The BDS movement, too, has targeted the theatre often and pro-Palestinian groups were often seen protesting outside the Bataclan.

The band playing in the theatre at the time of the attack was also important for the terrorist organizers. The group, Eagles of Death Metal, is American and the founder and lead is Jesse Hughes.

In July 2015 Eagles of Death Metal performed at the Barby Club in Tel Aviv. At the time, a huge amount of pressure was brought on the band to cancel their performance. BDS exerted public arm twisting. Even Roger Waters sent a letter to Hughes demanding that they boycott Israel. This is how Hughes put it at the concert:

"I would never boycott a place like this ... You know what I wrote back? Two words ... Never waste your time worrying about what an asshole thinks about you."

Hughes shouted out the two words he wrote to Waters. The Tel Aviv crowd went wild. And then later, during the concert, Hughes remarked: "I've never felt more at home in my life."

So yes - odds are that, along with the Bataclan theatre, the band Eagles of Death Metal was also a target for these terrorists.

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France Still Does Not Understand
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Europe still does not understand. It's frustrating, it's infuriating, it's sad. And the United States is not much better.
This is a war not between Paris and ISIS, a war not between Russia and ISIS.

It is a war - and I do not use the word frivolously - between radical Islam and everyone else.

It is a war waged by Jihadists who want everyone to convert to their radical ideology - or die.

It is a war between the terrorists, their supporters and the silent majority of Muslims who look on and do nothing - and the West.

It is a world war and there is no way that anyone can sit it out, sit on the sidelines or claim to be impartial.

In this battle, the terrorists targeted Paris and the West. Paris represents the freedoms that they reject, freedoms that embrace inclusiveness and equality. And France has the numbers.

Attacking France was, in many ways, an easy target for these terrorists.

There are more than a significant percentage of Muslims living in France. It is a country in which the terrorists can recruit and train and easily mix and mingle in society.

The freedoms and protections of individual rights in France allows for terrorist organizations to build their organization and solidify their infrastructure.

From France, terrorists have easy access to weapons and explosives making their way from Libya.

In interviews with people on the street in streets around the world in the aftermath of the Paris attacks, most displayed shock and the horror - and then asked "why?"

Only after you realize that you are a target can you best protect yourself.

The Paris soccer stadium was spared unimaginable carnage because stadiums realize that they are potential targets. This stadium had protections set up in advance of the four attacks for which they were targeted. None of the bombers got in. The lives of thousands of attendees were saved. All because the stadium knew and understood that it was a potential target.

That lesson must be translated, across the board, to everyday life.

It is a lesson Israelis know well. It is how Israelis live their lives and it is how Israel protects itself from terror. Every theatre and every restaurant and every promenade is a target.

Without that understanding, you will never be able to protect yourself and you will always be an easy target.

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The Symbol of the Knife
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The use of large knives being used by terrorists to attack Israelis is not accidental. For these terrorists, the knife is a weapon of convenience.

Now, while that statement is true - there's more to it than what is apparent and obvious.

Saif is the word used in Arabic for large knife or small sword. Saif can be found in all aspects of Arabic and Islamic life. And, here's where it gets interesting, the saif is filled with symbolic value.

Throughout history every man carried his own saif, it was an issue of power and defense.

But Islam uses the word saif in a way which resonates with domination. For example:

Saif al Islam means the sword of the submission to Islam.
Saif al Haqq means the sword of truth.
Saif ul Maluk means the sword of the power of leadership, or of the realm, or the governing force.
Saif al Ulla al Masloul means the drawn sword of Allah.
Saif al din means the sword of religion (of Islam).

And then, there is the most famous of all saif - Saif ul Ali.
Saif ul Ali refers to the sword that first belonged to Mohammed and was then handed down to his son-in-law and successor Ali. Ali cleaved off the head and the helmet of an enemy Makkan foot soldier with one flash of his saif. It is with that sword that Ali killed the powerful Makkan fighter Amr in the battle of the Trench in Medina.

The long knives now used by Palestinians to attack Israelis cannot be seen simply as a weapon of convenience. These modern day saif need to be seen as a symbol that returns power to Islam and defends and ensures and protects Islam from any threat.

In the world of Islam, a knife by any other name is not, simply, a knife.

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Hezbollah is Deluded
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu met earlier this week.

Many people concluded that the two leaders spent their time together patching up a badly tattered relationship. They concluded that this visit was really a badly needed opportunity to build bridges and that Netanyahu spent his time in DC talking to both sides of the aisle.
Others came to different conclusions.

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, delivered a speech on Wednesday. He told his audience that the two leaders actually spent their meeting time discussing Hezbollah. Now, there is no doubt that a few minutes of discussion time were dedicated to Hezbollah in the context of Syria and the stability of Lebanon as it relates to Israel's border. But this was most certainly not a meeting about Hezbollah.

Nasrallah said: "We can be proud that the Little Satan (Netanyahu) and the Great Satan (Obama) dedicated their meeting at the White House to Hezbollah."

He continued -- "Hezbollah is (fighting) on the right front and is having a genuine influence on the region."

Nasrallah ended his speech very crypticaly. He said that if the US were to try to reach out to Hezbollah, it would mean that the US is totally deluded to think that Hezbollah would join them.

Now, how Nasrallah concluded that the Great Satan would reach out to Hezbollah is truly a mystery. Then again, people are often deluded and can have a very unrealistic sense of themselves and reality.
Nasrallah is simply deluded.


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Pollard Release Nov 20th
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jonathan Pollard is scheduled to walk out of prison on November 20th. In just a few days the end of a very difficult chapter in US/Israel history will be closed.

The terms of Pollard's parole have not been released. The word is that the terms stipulate that Pollard may not leave the country. In other words, he may not go to Israel for the next 5 years. And for the next 5 years he may not grant any interviews.

In July, when his parole was processed, it was thought that the Justice Department could, at any point, challenge the parole and quash Jonathan Pollard's release from prison. At this point is seems like a truly done deal.

I wrote it then and will I repeat it now: The release of Pollard is very important to Israel. There is no doubt in my mind that it is a direct reward to Israel to help soften the blow of the Iranian deal. The talks with Iran were taking place at the very same time that the decision to grant Pollard parole was made.

I am told that Pollard will take up residence in Manhattan. He has a place here and has been promised a job. It won't be an easy transition.

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Stopping Iran's Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian hackers have been hard at work attacking Western targets.
One of the most notorious hacker groups is nicknamed Rocket Kitten.
The name was dubbed by Western analysts as they were identifying the group.

The group has done some serious damage. Rocket Kitten has launched attacks against EU infrastructure as well as countries within the EU. There have also been attacks launched against Israel especially academics.

The Iranian hackers are using a malware called GHOLE and they have launched a series of continuous operations of attack. One is called Operation Woolen Goldfish. It is a fishing campaign to get the targets to open a link - and then the hackers are in. They successfully compromised 1,600 high profile targets and are now able to spy on them through this operation and discover their secrets.

There is good news. Some of the links that people were lured to click on were not closed. That enabled counter measures and Western analysts have been able to crawl in and follow, watch and infect the infectors.

At one point earlier this year Iran had a foothold in five major satellite communications systems in Europe - they are the data hosting and communications systems of much of Europe. With their malware and spyware, Iran was deeply bedded inside.

After Western analysts burrowed in, they saw the map of what Iran was able to see and realized that it was a total picture of some very sensitive material. Iran had set up a command and control center which was being hosted - unknowingly, by the West inside their supposedly secure data and communications systems.

Now Western analysts have begun counter measures and they have declawed Rocket Kitten. According to the official reports written by Western techies the Iran infection is no longer in the system.

This is a huge setback for Iranian intel and a defeat for Iranian hackers. It is a great victory for the West.


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ISIS Now Have Great Hackers
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has hacked in to 54,000 twitter accounts. Most of the accounts belonged to the CIA, to CentCom (Central Military Command) and to the FBI.

The hackers sent out messages on the hacked accounts supporting ISIS activity. People who owned the accounts looked on, powerless, as their twitter feeds pounded out tweets glorifying the actions of ISIS.

The Cyber Caliphate claimed responsibility. They posted a video explaining their message. The video showed a still Cyber Caliphate person with their symbol and there was a computer muffled voice reading the following statement:

"Praise to Allah, today we extend on the land and in the internet. We send this message to America and Europe. We are the hackers of the Islamic State and the electronic war has not yet begun."

"What you have seen is just a preface of the future. We are able until this moment to hack the website of the American leadership and the website of the Australian airport and many other websites."

We know exactly who founded the Cyber Caliphate. We have a very good sense of those who support it and those who are involved. They are a very capable bunch.

These pro-ISIS hackers have the ability to cause damage on a large scale. I would estimate that even at this stage they could successfully attack a nation and its infrastructure - water, energy (especially electricity) and even communication grids. They could certainly hit small and medium size cities anywhere across the Western world. Large cities would just be slightly more difficult.

It may sound like a sci-fi movie, but this is real.


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Tensions Again Btw US & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Obama on Monday.

Washington announced last week that they would not be pressuring Israel to make concessions regarding peace with the Palestinians. The announcement continued that not pressuring Israel on this issue will be the policy for the remainder of the Obama presidency.

The purpose of the prime minister's visit to Washington is to get the reward package Israel was promised when the United States signed off on the Iran deal. Netanyahu is going to Washington to pick out and pick up Israel’s goody bag.

We have been told that Israel wants a very significant list of goodies amounting to a $5 billion a year package for 10 years. The current deal between the US and Israel is for $3 billion a year and it is up in 2017.

But we are hearing that the White House is not keen on this increase. The White House is saying that times are tough economically and so Israel must make do with the same package - or less.

If this becomes the scene, expect an explosion.

Israel needs the qualitative advantage on the military side. They need it by a factor of three - not simply better, but a full three times better.

Given the new threat posed by Iran, if the United States will not help Israel, Israel may just have to look elsewhere. Russia and China are waiting in the wings.

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Oil in The Golan
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Private geologists have announced that they found oil in Israel. And it looks like a huge find.

There are only three problems.
The first problem is that the oil reserves lie deep under volcanic rock.

The second problem is that the only country in the world that recognizes that the site of the oil discovery is in Israel --- is Israel.

Why? Because the oil that was discovered is in the Golan Heights. The Golan came under Israeli military law after the Six Day War in 1967. In 1981 the Knesset passed the Golan Heights Law which applies Israeli "laws jurisdiction and administration" to the Golan.

People often mistake this as annexing. The law and the Knesset fall short of annexing. They specifically do not use the word in the context of the Golan just as they do not use it when referring to Jerusalem.

Finally, the third and last problem is that the oil reserves lie right on the border with Syria. They are only hundreds of yards from where ISIS and al Qaeda and Hezbollah and Assad's forces are fighting.

This is one hot potato - but it might be worth dealing with in a serious way.

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More Lies By Palestinians at the UN
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Lies, more lies and still more lies in the UN, perpetrated by the Permanent Observer to the UN representing the Palestinians.

Riyad Mansour submitted a formal complaint against Israel saying that Israel is harvesting the organs of Palestinian terrorists killed by Israel and returned to the PA for burial.

"A medical examination conducted on bodies of Palestinians returned after they were killed by the occupying power found that they were missing organs."

Israel photographs each stage of the process. Bodies received, bodies inspected, bodies stored and bodies transported.

There is no harvesting of organs ... to say that there is, is a modern day blood libel!

This is the same centuries' old libel that has permeated throughout history and springs forth from the hatred of Jews, but with a twist.
It is a classic tale of how Jews take the blood of Christians and Muslims.

This myth resounded throughout the Arab world and now it has found a new forum in the form of a formal complaint presented before the United Nations.

A blood libel - a sham!

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Israel Is Training w/ Arab Forces
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has been involved in joint air force training missions with Jordan. The Israeli military has also been cooperating with other Arab armies.

The news about the military cooperation was hinted at in a press conference - but the hint came from a high level source which means that it was, effectually, a declaration. It was a press conference with Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon and was later confirmed by US sources.

In July, the United States hosted Operation Red Flag where the US air force and others - including Israel and Jordan, worked together. In one exercise a Jordanian fighter jet refueled over the Atlantic from an Israeli fuel tanker.

Yaalon said "There were Arab pilots there too, and pilots from the various branches of the United States military and other countries."

For years there has been contact between Israel and her neighbors but it was kept very hush hush.

This new cooperation is a result of the Arab nations being very uncomfortable with the Iranian nuke deal and the very public role that Iran is taking in world affairs.

Another example of current cooperation took place the other day after the Russian airliner crashed in Egypt's Sinai Desert. It was Israel's air force that immediately located the crash site for the Egyptians.

The times they are a changin'.

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Iran Tells World Powers Get Serious RE:Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 3, 3015

I've Been Thinking:

World powers and regional powers are meeting in Vienna to discuss Syria.

Included in this group is Iran. Iran is, undoubtedly, one of the most important factors influencing the Syrian conflict. They have major numbers of boots on the ground and they supply aPnd support Assad and his forces.

The talks began on Friday.

Iran is, so far, very displeased with the process. They feel that Saudi Arabia is being negative. So on Monday Iran announced that they would pull out of the talks if the parties, especially Saudi Arabia, were not more positive.

"In the first round of talks, some countries, especially Saudi Arabia, played a negative and unconstructive role. Iran will not participate if the talks are not fruitful," announced Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.

This announcement was carried in the Islamic State News Agency (ISNA) which is an official outlet of the Islamic Republic.

Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are centuries old. They play out most dramatically in Syria and in Vienna but they also play out almost everywhere in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia represents the Sunnis. Iran represents the Shiites.

This is how lines are drawn across the Middle East.

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ISIS Video
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday ISIS released a second video in Hebrew. The video began with the message "this is an important announcement to all Jews."

The speaker, in green fatigues, spoke Hebrew with an Arabic accent.
He was very clear about what he had to say.

"My message to the officers and soldiers and all the Jews - we will fight you with God's help, we will come for you from across the world and we will slaughter you like sheep, prepare for the big war, the war of stone and wood. This attack will be soon."

He said: "We will enter al-Aksa mosque as conquerors, using our cars as bombs to strike the Jewish ramparts."

"Do what you will in the meantime until we reach you."
"Then we will punish you ten times for the crimes"
"Soon there will be not a single Jew in Jerusalem. We will kill every Jew in Jerusalem and all of Palestine."

The first video was shorter. It ran about 43 second and was less detailed. This video was more than three times as long, running 2 minutes and 3 seconds.

ISIS is not climbing over Iraq and into Israel, neither are they coming in from Syria as the speaker says. The video is, however, building on fears of the ISIS phenomenon.

ISIS knows that people fear them. They want to make sure that Israel fears them, too.

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Trump Says Obama Hates Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Donald Trump said that he thinks that Barack Obama hates Israel.

Trump did not just blurt this out or shout out like he sometimes does. Trump was responding to someone who called out the word "Israel" when he said "I heard the beautiful name of Israel."

The Donald followed up his own comment by pointing at himself and declaring: "Israel is safe with this one."

From there Trump commented on the Iran deal, saying the deal "is so bad for Israel, so dangerous." And then he spoke about President Barack Obama.

Trump said: "They [Israel] have a president who they actually think Obama hates Israel. I think he does..." He said that Israel is "in such a massive amount of trouble. Because of the agreement."

This was an observation --- not one of the rants we have grown so accustomed to from Donald Trump. This was the expression of a sincere sentiment. Donald Trump truly believes that Barack Obama hates Israel.

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Plane From Spain Says Landing In Palestine
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

An Iberia Air airliner landing in Tel Aviv sent shock waves throughout Israel. Why you might ask?

Here's why. As they were landing the captain came over the loudspeaker, as is customary, and made his announcement. The captain announced that in a few minutes they would be landing at Ben Gurion Airport. They would, he said, be touching down in Palestine.

The announcement was made in both Spanish and in English. Throughout the entire trip the announcements never once mentioned Israel. Airplane personnel instead spoke of Palestine, Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport.

This is more than not PC. It is actually an international diplomatic incident. Iberia is the national airline of Spain, not dissimilar to Israel's national airline El Al.

There has yet to be a comment from Spain or from the airline.
Channel 2 TV News in Israel was the first to broadcast the story and then almost every media outlet in Israel ran with the story.

Ben Gurion Airport is in Israel. It is in Israel according to everyone who is involved in any negotiation. Only those who deny Israel's right to exist actually believe that Tel Aviv is in Palestine. Those deniers include Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah.

It is very unusual that Spain would side with Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah.

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ISIS & Asia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Russia's director of intelligence, Alexander Bortnikov, was quoted in a Russian paper saying that ISIS is making headway in Central Asia, especially in Afghanistan. He added that ISIS is also popping up in Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Up until now, ISIS was recruiting online in these areas and the recruits would then travel to Iraq and Syria. But now it seems that some fighters who have pledged support for ISIS are remaining local.

It is not clear if we are dealing with only future fighters or also with returning fighters.

From the figures that we do have, what is clear is that over 50% of ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq are not local. They are foreign recruits. And the overwhelming percent of those recruits are from Asia - especially Central Asia.

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Kurds Are the Secret to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The secret to the next stage in the Middle East is - the Kurds.

There are 30,000 Kurds who compose a well trained, fully operational and well disciplined fighting force. It is the only force that has successfully pushed back ISIS across the region.

Now the Russians want the Kurds to be part of their ground force. Part of the deal is that the Russians will support the Kurds militarily and also support their bid for Kurdish autonomy.

The United States cannot let that happen. So the US has begun to lure the Kurds and recently engaged in a joint raid against ISIS and a major weapons drop that delivered US small arms to the Kurds.

Over the next weeks the Kurds are going to have to make their decision. Who will it be - the Russians or the United States. Soon enough, we will know.

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Russia/Syria Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The RIA News Agency in Russia has reported that President Assad is willing and ready to stand for elections and to making changes to the country's constitution after things calm down in Syria and order is restored.

Part of the Russian / Syrian deal, in which Russia came to save Syria and Assad from ISIS and al Qaeda, was exactly this - having Assad agree in principle to stepping down as president and holding elections.

Assad of course believes that he will win an election when the time comes and he is probably correct. Some observers of the Russia / Syria collaboration assumed that new elections meant that Assad would step down and not run. That is clearly not the case.

Russia knows that they need Assad in place for now if for no other reason than to keep Syrians untied against ISIS and al Qaeda.

The heartening news is that a plan is in place and everyone involved is on board.

The Russian leader was quoted in the article as saying "Assad said that if the Syrian people consider it necessary, he would not be against taking part in presidential elections."

In that part of the world that is not hedging, it is a declaration of intent.

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Abbas' Family Uses Israeli Hospitals
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

This is a story I read on YNET. It speaks volumes about Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas' brother-in-law was just admitted to Assuta, a private hospital in Tel Aviv, to undergo heart surgery. The surgery was deemed essential, a matter of life or death.

Last June Abbas' wife had surgery in the very same hospital.

Even more interesting is that the head of Hezbollah's daughter, Ismail Haniyah's daughter, a woman in her 20's, was brought to Israel in an emergency situation and admitted to Icholov Hospital after a routine operation went wrong. That happened last year.

And Haniyah's sister was treated in an Israeli hospital about three years ago when she had an emergency. And then most recently, only six months ago, his granddaughter was also brought to Israel for care after an emergency.

All these cases were considered humanitarian medical acts.

Despite all the care his family has received, despite all the care any Palestinian receives in Israeli medical institutions, at this very moment, Abbas is still on his high horse shouting to all who will hear that Israel is executing and murdering Palestinian children in cold blood.

Ironic? Typical? I am still undecided.

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UNESCO Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Jewish world was up in arms when a handful of Arab countries proposed to the UNESCO board that the Western Wall be declared a Muslim holy site, connected to the Mosques above.

There was huge blow back and indeed - the proposal was altered.

The alteration was very significant - and the new proposal passed.

BUT-- and it's a big BUT - the new proposal says that The Tomb of the Patriarchs (Marat HaMachpela) in Hebron and Rachel's Tomb (Kever Rachel) in Bethlehem are holy Muslim Sites.

The status of these two sites had already resolved as part of the peace agreements and they are managed by Israel.

Throwing a UNESCO decision into the works will undoubtedly create a real change in status. And that change will cause serious strife and raise the real possibility of serious violence.

The phrase goes: be careful what you wish for. We need to add: and be sure to read the fine print.

This is a mess. Why didn't Israel see this coming?!

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Israeli Press is Covering Terror in West Bank
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Another reason this terror spree throughout Israel is so different from previous periods of terror is that mainstream Israelis and the press are taking notice of terror that takes place in the West Bank.

Almost the entire population of Israel lives on the coastal plain from just north of Haifa to just south of Tel Aviv. It is a very narrow strip of land.

In the past, Israelis living on the coastal plain did not take an interest in any acts of terror perpetrated against settlers - stone throwing, stabbings, shootings - on the West Bank.

Terror against settlers only came into their field of vision if it was covered by national news. There were websites that specifically informed those who cared about the events. Arutz Sheva is one such site.

The mainstream media in general did cover terror in the West Bank or Gaza. If they did, it would be buried. For the mainstream media and hence for main stream Israel, what happened in the West Bank to the setter population was not important - or maybe, mainstream Israelis thought that settlers who chose to live there, knew and accepted the risks.

Last summer there was one glaring exception to this almost iron clad rule. It centered around the three boys kidnapped in the West Bank. When that tragedy struck the nation galvanized around their parents who lived in Israel proper.

Now, once again, Israelis are showing concern and care for all other Israelis affected by terror and tragedy - regardless of address.

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More Than 2110 Dead From Mecca Stampede
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It was a horrific tragedy. On September 26th a stampede of people just outside of Mecca trampled 769 people to death and injuring 934 others.

We all knew that the numbers were low and that the number of deaths would creep higher and higher. But there was no update on the numbers.

AP, the Associated Press, did their own tally and according to their count at least 2,110 Muslim pilgrims died in the stampede.

This past Sunday a meeting took place in Saudi Arabia, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif who is also the minister of the"interior. The Saudi Press Agency reported on the meeting saying:
"The crown prince was reassured on the progress of the investigation..."

"He directed the committee's members to continue their efforts to find the causes of the accident, praying to Allah Almighty to accept the martyrs and wishing the injured a speedy recovery."

Well, if they cannot update their own numbers it is very unlikely that the Saudis will actually conduct a true investigation.

And the numbers of deaths, reported or not, will probably still go higher.

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Terror By Arabs w/ Israeli ID's
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

While it is definitely terror, the terror that Israel is confronting today is different from the terror Israel faced in the past.

One significant difference is that terrorists attacking Israelis over these past few weeks hold Israeli IDs. This is true for many of the attacks perpetrated throughout the country and almost every single attack perpetrated in the Jerusalem area.

Holders of Israeli IDs have an easier time making their way in Jerusalem and around the country than those without Israeli identification certificates.

One way of securing Israel is to cut it off from the West Bank and to limit the movement of people who do not have Israeli IDs. That is done by way of road blocks and police and army patrols roaming the streets and checking for IDs. When terrorists carry Israeli IDs they more easily blend in with the crowd.

Today's terrorists need to sniffed out through behavior, actions, signs and signals that alert trained security personnel that something is wrong.

The Old City of Jerusalem is blanketed with monitors and security cameras and has teams of people watching the cameras and alerting police in the field to anything unusual or anyone arousing suspicion.

Cell phones and messages are canvassed - that means that all communication is tapped. Email, sms, whats app, facebook, pintrest are all monitored in real time. If you broadcast or send a message in certain areas, know that it will be read.

Israel is defending itself from threats perpetrated by Palestinians who live over the green line and inside Israel. The Israelis are using highly sophisticated tools operated by top notch techies and highly trained technicians.

Even then, terrorists still slip through the cracks.

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Israelis Save Refugees
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday morning, 12 drowning Syrian and Iraqi refugees were fished out of the sea near Greece by an Israeli yacht.

The Israelis saved the refugees who were wearing life vests and floating in the sea. Their raft was destroyed.

A six month old infant died in the water cradled in her mother's arms. She held the dead baby the entire time on the yacht.

An older man had a heart attack in the water and suffered diabetic shock. He was given sweets and administered first aid.

Everyone received food, water and phones to call their families.

The Greek navy was alerted and they came to pick up the refugees after a few hours. When the refugees were told that their saviors were Israelis, the refugees hugged and kissed the Israelis.

The Israelis were not simply motivated by the code of Maritime law and culture. These Israelis saved people in need.

Israelis, in general, save people in need.

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Lies Lies and Lies by the PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

By now everyone has heard about the 13 year old terrorist - the boy PA President Abbas spoke about claiming that he had been "executed" by Israelis. The 13 year old terrorist boy who is now alive and doing well in Jerusalem' Hadassah Hospital.

I have heard claims that the boy was innocent and just beaten up by Jews. And even though Abbas has now downplayed his rhetoric and exchanged the word "executed" for "killed in cold blood", I have yet to hear an acknowledgment from him, or from the PA press, that their propaganda tool is alive and kicking.

We've heard a lot about him, now it's time to hear from him. Here is part of the statement he gave to the Jerusalem police.

"I went there with my cousin Hassan in order to stab Jews." He said that his cousin Hassan planned the terror attack and Hassan brought the knives.

This is a confession from a terrorist if ever there was one. He may be a 13 year old, but he is a terrorist none the less, a terrorist who stabbed and tried to murder Jews. Tapes show that he was kept on the ground by locals and that he was kicked and his knife was taken from him. His cousin kept running and then turned and crossed the street, knife held over his head, lunging at the police. The police shot the older cousin as he ran toward them and he died on the spot.

There are lies and there are truths. Many people, people who should know better, want to sell the lie. That's pitiful. And it's shameful, too.

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Abbas Fomenting Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem has been victim of a flood of terror. In order to stem the tide policies that limit movement in Jerusalem have been instituted.

Israeli leadership needs to stop the terror. These new policies may seem harsh to Americans but restoring order and preventing daily terror attacks by young adults - boys and men who enter the holy city is one effective way of accomplishing that.

Creating a monstrous police presence is another effective method.

Israel cannot permit this wave of terror to continue any longer. More than one attack in more than three or four cities on the same day is unacceptable.

Israelis have started to strike back on their own. There have been several cases of Israelis stabbing Arabs. This is wrong - it's vigilantism. Israelis should maintain their honor and not sink to the level of those who are trying to annihilate them.

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India Pays Iran for Oil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday India paid Iran $700 million. It was the second of 2 installments totaling $1.4 billion.

Iran has been providing oil to India - however, under the sanctions, India could not pay them. But now they are paying. Iran is India's seventh largest supplier of oil. Before 2013 when sanctions kicked, in Iran was their number two.

Even during sanctions India found a way through a back door bank in Turkey so that they could continue paying Iran, but that was discovered and blocked.

India has deposited another 170 billion rupees which is equivalent to $2.6 billion in their own UCO bank which is, of course, headquartered in India. This money will also be transferred to Iran.

There is one snag.

India will not convert the rupees into dollars and Iran wants dollars.
I know it sounds backwards. Why does Iran, the nation pit against the United States want US dollars? Iran is the nemesis of the US.

There is no other nation in the world --- not North Korea and not Cuba - that has that distinction.

The answer to why Iran wants US dollars is clear. Iran does business in a world that honors the greenback. They want the dollar to support their economy.

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Wright Spouts More A/S
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Reverend Jeremiah Wright? He was the pastor of President Obama's church.

Yesterday Reverend Wright spoke at a rally in Washington DC sponsored by Louis Farrakhan.

Wright said some very contentious things, especially because the name of the rally was "Justice or Else." The rally was held in honor of the 20th anniversary of Farrakhan's "Million Man March."

Wright said that: "Jesus was a Palestinian."

Wright concluded his talk saying: "We are grateful to God to be able to be here and to speak a word on behalf of Palestinian justice. Palestinians are saying 'Palestinian lives matter.' We stand with you, we support you, we say God bless you."

Wright argued that Palestinians were the first to live in Palestine and then Europeans came and took over the land. Wright called Palestinians the original people in the land.

Wright spoke about Palestinians, Native Americans and African Americans as people who were victims of a "three-headed demon" of "racism, militarism and capitalism."

What foolishness. And people actually believe this material.

There is little doubt that Reverend Wright is an anti-Semite and there is no doubt that he has a huge impact on the many people who listen to him.

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Iran Deal Violates Obama's Law
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Today's NY Post ran an editorial which was stimulated by James Rosen of Fox News.

The piece blasted the Iran deal in a way that claims that applying the agreement would violate United States law. Actually, it would violate a US law that was signed into effect by Barack Obama himself in 2012.

The law is called "The Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act." It says, according to the NY Post, that reducing restrictions and sanction on Iran can only happen "if Iran is removed from the State Department's list of terror sponsors and the president certifies that Iran has permanently ceased the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction."

Thank you James Rosen and the NY Post. I have been saying this for months. The only way to stop the agreement is through the courts.

The courts are the most independent branch of government and the only place where there is a chance to get a fair hearing on this issue.

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State Dept Finally Calls it Terror!
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A major change in terminology emerged out of a briefing at the State Department on Friday.

John Kirby, the spokesman for the State Department, briefed reporters and told them how the US views the increase of terror in Israel.
Normally, the State Department would have called the terror "events" or "incidents". They would also use terms like "violence" and "acts".

Until now, when Americans and Israelis were murdered by terrorists in Jerusalem or in East Jerusalem, the State Department termed the terror "incidents".

But on Friday October 9, 2015, Kirby said that the US "condemns in the strongest possible terms violence against both Israeli and Palestinian citizens."

And then the State Department spokesman said: "We consider these violent acts that we're talking about specifically here acts of terror ... this terrorism."

Terror. He actually used the word.

This is a huge change in terms and one which puts the United States on the right side of this scenario. Up until now the US attempted to be neutral on this issue.

It looks like the United States finally understands.

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De Blasio to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

New York mayors travel to Jerusalem. That is a tradition.

And next Thursday, New York's current mayor, Bill de Blasio, will make his mayoral trip. He leaves New York Thursday evening, arrives on Friday and is scheduled to depart Israel on Sunday evening.

On the agenda are several events and talks. The reason for the trip is the Annual Mayors Conference that takes place in Jerusalem.

This conference is a great opportunity for mayors across the world to share and learn. As it has been for several years, the top on the agenda will be security. That is a topic that Mayor de Blasio can both teach and learn. And Israel is the perfect place for that.

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Israel Palestinian Conflict Must De-Escalate
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian terror reached a new high these past few days.

It is bad. It does not matter what we call the terror - some say it is an "Intifada" while others say we are not yet in an Intifada.

What matters is that it be stopped. Immediately.

Here is the best way to stop it: Do not allow vigilantism. Arrest extremists. Create a large security presence in all areas where tensions might emerge. Keep security personnel calm. Security must go to great lengths not to kill anyone even by accident - unless it is absolutely necessary and that is especially the case when it comes to children and youths.

Abbas and Netanyahu must make public statements against violence.
They must call for calm on both sides. They must meet and have a joint press conference. They must speak about calm - not about the peace process.

If this violence gets out of control the price both sides pay will be very costly. Many lives will be lost.

This conflict must de-escalate.

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Russia & Israel Military Meet In Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Russia's Deputy Chief of Staff met with Israel's Deputy Chief of Staff in Tel Aviv. It was not a private meeting, other officials were also present.

The talks centered around making certain that both sides - both Russia and Israel, understood one another and trusted each other enough to warrant giving each other advance knowledge about and warning of operations.

Most importantly - they would not shoot at one another. Russia and Israel are working out a mechanism to avoid clashing. The most important tool is information, they must keep each other up to date and informed. As long as the advance information does not get leaked, i will be a viable modus operandi.

It is reported that Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Nikolai Bogdanovsky and his Israeli counterpart Yair Golan interacted well and seem to have a working relationship.

Last week Russia attacked several sites in Syria. They informed Israel in advance of the strikes. It was an important gesture.
Israel does not want its control over Syrian airspace curtailed by Russian jets and technology.

Israel maintains, and Russia agrees, that Israel needs to have the ability to fly over Syria in order to maintain stability so that the crisis ripping through Syria does not spill over into Israel.

These meetings will continue. Hopefully there will be no need for emergency sessions.

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Terrorists Mistake Arab for Jew
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier today an Arab man was stabbed near the entrance to Kiryat Arab which is just next to Hebron.

There has been a rash of Palestinian terror against Jews since Abbas' speech before the UN General Assembly.

The Arab victim in this case was treated by Jewish/Israeli paramedics. He claims that his attackers mistook him for a Jew.

That is possible - but it is more probable that he was targeted as a collaborator or someone who was interacting with Jews, even if he was not an intelligence asset.

The Palestinians are attempting to close ranks and ferret out the many assets, informers and collaborators who regularly update Israel as to the goings on in the West Bank and Gaza.

These assets are essential to Israel's ability to defend and protect its citizens.

So, yes, one explanation could be that the terrorists mistook this Arab for a Jew. But the other, much more probable, explanation is that this Arab man was dressed in a way and was found in an area that made his attackers assume that he was meeting Israeli contacts.

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Bahrain Expels Iran Diplomat
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain has expelled Iran's charge d'affairs and is recalling its own ambassador back from Iran.

The Iranian diplomat has 72 hours to leave Iran and has been labeled persona non grata. The Iranians have not responded officially. And there has been no press coverage of this by any of official Iranian press agencies.

The Bahrainis say that the Iranian diplomat has been involved in terror activity.

Bahrain is a tiny Island very close to Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is controlled by a minority of Sunnis while the majority of the Island is Shiite. The split is about 15% to 85%, Sunni to Shiite.


For the past four years Bahraini leadership has been complaining that
Iran has been provoking and sponsoring revolts, demonstrations and violence against them and, simply put, meddling in the internal issue of Bahrain.

On Thursday 1.5 tons of explosives were discovered in a Shiite terror hideout just outside Bahrain's capital.

There is no doubt that Shiite Iran wants to oust the Sunni leadership of Bahrain.

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US Missed Russian Angle in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The press coverage showing Russia NOT hitting ISIS shows a total lack of understanding. Look again.

Russia was hitting al Qaeda representatives called al Nusra. And al Nusra is the group that controls areas essential to transport and movement within Syria.

Al Nusra is a large and very organized force in Syria and they control populated strategic areas. The Russians, Syrians, Hezbollah and Iran are all joining forces to fight them, as well as ISIS.
One source explained "The (Russian) air strikes will in the near future be accompanied by ground advances by the Syrian army and its allies."

This combined force has several targets - ISIS is only one of them. Included in their target list is al Nusra (the al Qaeda group) and any rebel groups supported by the United States. As of last count there are only 4 or 5 of those groups. Included, of course, are all foreign fighters especially Chechnians and that group may number as many as 6,000 fighters.

The objective is more than simply securing Assad and establishing a Russian / Iranian nexus of control and influence. It is getting these factions under control. The entire job should take about a month. Thousands of Iranian commandos have arrived over the past few days. They will join the Syrian, Hezbollah and Russian teams.

The United States thinks that Russia is simply interested in ISIS because the United States is interested in ISIS. But NO there are many other forces on the ground. Once again, the Russian agenda is larger than the United States agenda.

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Russia vs Israel in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Much talk has centered on Russia and the United States and how they might butt heads in and around Syria.

Leaders from Russia and the US are seen standing in front of the United Nations and appearing on television announcing contradictory plans for Syria.

But his relationship with the United States vis a vis Syria is not the only pressing diplomatic situation for Putin.

In a press briefing on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin addressed the issue of Russia and Israel in Syria. Putin said that they, the Russians, "must respect Israel's interest" in Syria. But Putin continued saying that he was "worried."

Putin is clearly worried about Israeli strikes into Syria as happened only days ago as a result of rockets being fired into Israel from Syria.

Last week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu flew to Moscow to speak with Putin. It was a cordial encounter. By the time their meeting came to a conclusion - with the clock ticking closer and closer towards Yom Kippur, the two leaders were able to cobble out a workable solution, but the situation is still potentially explosive.

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Russia, Iran & Syria Team Up To Fight ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Reports are circulating about close cooperation between Russia, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran on directly fighting ISIS.

These reports are worrisome to the United States. It further demonstrates Russia's involvement, and even leadership, in the region and underscores how the Russians are playing a major role in confronting an issue that the United States considers extremely important.

Adding to that - it brings Iran, Syria and Hezbollah onto a team that is part of the solution where, until now, they have been portrayed as the problem.

If these groups successfully put together a crack A team set of commandos with air support and on the ground real time intelligence, they may be able to attack, hurt and even cripple ISSI in a matter of weeks.

The results will be very positive - but the US will be absent from the game.

The entire situation is a big loss for the United States. A scenario is under construction in which Russia and Iran destroy ISIS and, in so doing, help Syria's Assad stay in power.

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Iraq Rejects Iran's Influence
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has been at the front fighting against ISIS. This is true in Syria and it is especially true in Iraq. So when the US prods the Iraqis about their relationship with Iran --- the Iraqis get testy.

Iraqi foreign minister, and former prime minister, Ibrahim al Jaafari spoke at the Council of Foreign Relations in NYC. He said "Iraq is not part of Iran. Iraq is not an Iranian province," he said. "Iran has no right to make decisions on behalf of Iraq. We accept help, but we do not accept interference or violations of our sovereignty."

Jaafari is responding to the US wondering what kind of role and what level of influence Iran has and will have in Iraq's future. Jaafari insisted that the answer is - no role. But it gets more complicated. Jaafari is a Shiite as is Iranian leadership.

There is much hatred between the Shiites of Iran who are Persians and the Shiites of Iraq who are Arabs. Tensions between the groups are almost insurmountable.

But for the time being the mutual animus between these two Shiite groups has been set aside in order to fulfill their common goal - fighting ISIS.

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Hezbollah Says Will Scale Back in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Daily Star, which is a Lebanese newspaper, reported yesterday that Hezbollah is scaling down their activity in Syria.

The source told the paper that Hezbollah would be involved in defensive activity only. That activity will begin after the battle of al Zabadani is completed.

Al Zabadani is situated about 30 miles from Damascus and it is the battle ground of the conflict between Hezbollah and anti Assad forces. A ceasefire was reached at the end of the day yesterday - but that will only hold for a few hours.

This move by Hezbollah into defensive mode coincides with increased Russian and Iranian boots on the ground in Syria. Hezbollah, it seems, is using the situation to regroup and recuperate. According to the announcement they will still help Assad, but from a different and more secure position.

Honestly, I can't really believe that Hezbollah is about to make such a dramatic shift in their activities and operations, so it is very important now to track not only what they do and how they behave, but what they say.

Another source, this one in a Kuwaiti newspaper named Al Rai, said that Hezbollah has been "dealing" with informants who have been reporting to Western nations. This scaling down of activity could be the Hezbollah way of removing themselves from the center of the conflict in order to flush out those informants.

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Iran Caught By Surprise by Russia in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Financial Times ran a piece on Wednesday entitled "Russia's Syria Build -Up Takes Iran By Surprise."

I was very excited to see that the US was not the only nation involved in the conflict to be totally surprised by Russia's return to Syria.

But the article was very disappointing. It was mostly feedback. A catchy title, but nothing new or interesting in the article itself. No quotes and no thoughts from Iranians who were surprised.

I think that Iranian leadership was surprised but not because of the article in FT. They were surprised because Russia does not telegraph their actions - especially their military actions.

Russia is in charge in Syria and they do not need to tell Iran or the United States what they plan on doing.

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Soda Stream Offer to Take 1000 Syrian Refugees
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The internationally famous bubbly water maker, Soda Stream, has said that they will employ up to 1,000 Syrian refugees.

Soda Stream recently relocated to a brand new set of facilities in the city of Rahat which is in Southern Israel. Rahat is a city of 55,000 people. It is a Bedouin Arab city - a city where Bedouins live, not nomadically migrate and move as most Bedouin communities do. About 33% of the Soda Stream employees are from Rahat.

Daniel Birnbaum, the CEO of Soda Stream, said in a press release that was quoted in The Calcalist, an Israeli daily business paper:

"As the son of a Holocaust survivor, I refuse to stand by and observe this human tragedy unfold right across the border in Syria."

"Just as we have always done our best to help our Palestinian brothers and sisters in the West Bank, the time has come for local business and municipal leaders to address the Syrian humanitarian crisis and take the initiative to help those in need. We cannot expect our politicians to bear the entire burden of providing aid for the refugees."

There is little chance that Soda Stream's offer will be accepted. As of now, Israel's PM Netanyahu has been firm and clear on not accepting any more refugees from Syria. Use of the term "any more" means that Israel has already accepted many of the wounded Syrians that Israeli has rescued and treated in Israeli hospitals.

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Egypt Floods Hamas Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, Hamas made a public denouncement of Egypt's "Operation Fish Farm" program because, according to them, it poses a "great danger to Gaza and to the ground water."

The Fish Farm is a program through which Egypt dug a huge mote next to their border with Gaza and repeatedly floods the mote with sea water.

Last week the Egyptians flooded the mote and in so doing, they significantly damaged several of Hamas' smuggling tunnels.

Hamas is upset because the tunnels that smuggle weapons and fighters back and forth between Gaza and Egypt are being destroyed.

Since Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, Egypt has blocked the border.
The Egyptians do periodically open the border for humanitarian purposes. But since Sisi took over as president of Egypt, he has been very serious about stopping terrorists from crossing the border.

Those terrorists that are now being stopped are the terrorist who attack Egyptian army personnel and civilians.

Operation Fish Farm is a low tech response to the smuggling tunnels - and from the point of view of Egypt, the operation is working well.

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Bibi to Moscow
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched a video post by a Syrian rebel group called the Islamic Army. The video showed members of the group shooting rockets from the mountains supposedly down onto the newly established Russian air-force base.

In the video the group explains that Russia will not experience a peaceful stay in Syria.

This week more Russian manpower, materials and weapons arrived in Syria, including tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Many people are worried about Russia's renewed presence in Syria. So much so that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting Moscow this week to sit down with Putin.

This is a very busy time in Israel. The holidays, Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur and Sukkot, sap huge time out of the 24/7 work week…so taking a half day and flying in and out of Moscow to have a meeting with Putin says it is important.

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Iceland And its Boycott of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The boycott of Israeli products by Iceland's capital Reykjavik has not garnered headlines. I have written about it and have spoken about it, but almost nobody else has.

The ADL has asked Jews not to visit Iceland and Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress, has proclaimed his shock that Icelandic leadership has not condemned the decision of their capital to boycott Israel. He has termed it: "[T]he silence of Iceland's political leadership on this important matter."

Lauder said: "We urge the government of Iceland to act against this boycott."

""It is unfair, and it could have negative repercussions for Iceland's good name on the international stage. We need to know what the official position of the Government of Iceland is in that regard, and what it intends to do about this boycott call."

There are about 150 Israelis who live in Iceland, almost all in Reykjavik. Most of them are either married to Icelanders or are students.

There are almost no imports of Israeli products to Iceland, so a boycott will not mean much economically. But that is not the point.

Boycotts are illegal. The European Jewish Congress is investigating legal procedures to right this act of anti-Semitism. That may serve as a lesson to prevent others from joining the boycott movement.

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Obama Talks w/ Saudi King
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama spoke with King Salman of Saudi Arabia yesterday.

They discussed Yemen, the tensions in Jerusalem and other regional issues.

A statement from the White House said that the two leaders spoke and ...

"They reaffirmed their commitment to work expeditiously to allow for unfettered access to all forms of humanitarian assistance, including fuel, into Yemen, and the opening of Red Sea ports."

The two countries are allotting $90 million in humanitarian aid for Yemen.

It looks like both the US and the Saudis are trying hard to resurrect their relationship.

They are working together on issues of common interest.

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Iceland Capital Boycotts Israeli Products
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The capital of Iceland, Reykjavik, has just passed a resolution to boycott all Israeli products.

The city council just passed the matter.

Emanuel Nachson, Israel's foreign ministry spokesman said, "A volcano of hate is currently exploding in Reykjavik’s city council building. There is no reason or justification for this move, besides hate itself, which is being heard in the form of calls for a boycott against Israel, the Jewish state. We hope that someone in Iceland will wake up and stop this blindness and one sidedness which is aimed against the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel."

Iceland does not import much from Israel, - so this boycott is not likely to have any significant economic impact.

It is the principle behind this action that is crucial. Having a European capital, any European capital, boycott Israel is very troubling. This must be stopped before it becomes trend setting.

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Inspectors in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's top nuclear official, Ali Akbar Salehi, announced that the head of the UN agency that monitors nukes will be visiting Iran this week.

Yakiya Amano, head of the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency) sent 13 inspectors to Iran earlier this week and according to the Iranians, Amano is to arrive later this week.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also called the Iranian Nuclear Deal, is intertwined with IAEA agreements. The agreements require Iran to stop nuclear development in order for the sanctions to be lifted. In order to make sure that happens, inspectors must be on the ground.

"About 12 or 13 IAEA experts are going to Tehran tonight and Amano will visit in the next three or four days," Salehi said on state television. "We hope the remaining issues are resolved by December 15 so the implementation of the JCPOA can start."

Salehi was referring to the deadline set in a 'road-map' deal Iran reached with the agency alongside the JCPOA.

This is an important visit and we will monitor it closely.

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Refugees Living in Buchenwald
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Buchenwald, a place synonymous with Nazi horrors, is now housing 21 Middle East refugees.

The town explained that it is an emergency situation and they converted one of the only remaining buildings of the camp into a residence for the refugees. The refugees will get 135 Euros each ($150) as a stipend.

It sounds very unusual. Buchenwald is a memorial and a museum today. It is located 5 miles from Weimar on the outskirts of a small town named Schwerte.

56,000 Jews were murdered or died at the hands of the Nazis in Buchenwald. 250,000 prisoners were interned there from the time it opened in 1937 until it was liberated by the US army in 1945.

It was one of the largest camps and one of the only camps of its kind in Germany itself.

There were 168 sub-camps in the region affiliated with Buchenwald.

Is the local Schwerte government doing the correct thing by housing these refugees in Buchenwald? Or is that camp a holy site for memorializing and for teaching.

And do the refugees being housed there know the history of the place they are now calling home?

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85% Jews of Europe Afraid to Attend Synagogue
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A new study about Jews of Europe was just released and after reading the findings, I was speechless.

85% of the Jews of Europe will not attend synagogue during these High Holidays out of fear of Anti-Semitism. This figure is up from 70% last year.

The Jews of Europe are afraid of a terrorist attack.
70% of those asked report that they conceal their Jewish-ness. That statistic, too, is a marked increase from last year when the figure was 40%. When you do the math you see that there is a 75% increase in those European Jews who feel it necessary for their safety to hide their Jewish-nesss.

187 Jewish community leaders in Western and Eastern Europe participated in the study which was sponsored by the Rabbinical Center of Europe (RCE) and the European Jewish Association (EJA), which is connected to Chabad.

These numbers are simply frightening. While it is hard to fathom that these are true figures, the EJA asserts that these are the true
numbers.

If fear and hiding have once again become significant characteristics of Jewish life and Jewish living in Western and Eastern Europe, it means that the Jews of Europe have no future in their host countries - not in the long term and certainly not even in the short term.

Wishing everyone a safe and sweet New Year.

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9-11 14 Years
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It's 9-11. 14 years have passed.

9-11 changed us all. It changed the society we live in and it changed how we approach the world.

Today, 14 years later, we understand that there are people - many people, major swaths of the world, who despise and hate almost all that the United States of America stands for. Their numbers are large, approximating 100 million - most are silent supporters. They show disdain and go about their lives.

But what about those who are not silent? Those who not only despise us and harbor hatred toward us and put that hatred on display? Those who train in ways to hurt us, who plot against us and who plan to attack Western targets?

Many of those haters are volunteers in militias in Iraq and Syria, Some have joined ISIS, others al Qaeda.

We learned our lessons from 9-11. Our haters learned lessons, too. One crucial lesson they learned is that they can attack the United States and it will hurt us.

This is a lesson they are putting to good use.

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US - Russia in Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Russia called US diplomatic requests "boorish."

The Russians are livid at the United States and I'll explain why.
Russia has stationed over a thousand troops, a few dozen pilots and fighter jets on the outskirts of Damascus.

The United States warned that this action on the part of Russia could lead to conflict between the coalition forces and Russian forces.
Russia responded that they are there protecting their own interests.

In response to the Russian troop deployment, the US asked Greece and Bulgaria to restrict - more accurately, to forbid Russian aircraft from their airspace. Greece and Bulgaria have yet to respond but the request itself is seen as a response that is way out of proportion to the situation.

Granted, the United States was and is still upset. But there are ways of countering the situation without asking 3rd parties to intervene and punish Russia. Asking Greece and Bulgaria to help fight their battle was not at all appropriate on the part of the United States.

Russia has had troop on the ground in Syria from the very start of this conflict. For several months Russia's only aircraft carrier and all its ancillary ships and crew were anchored just outside the port of Latakia. Russia actually built and modernized the port investing $300 million of their own dollars. About 16 months ago Russia withdrew its troops from the area.

Now Russia has returned. This entire move should not have surprised anyone. Certainly, it should not have surprised the United States military or diplomatic corps.

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Austrian President Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The first Western head of state to visit Iran arrived on Tuesday.

The visit marked the first time in over a decade that the head of a Western country was in Teheran.

Austria's President Heinz Fischer went to Teheran to seal a series of trade deals that have been in development since the signing of the Nuke Deal in July.

Fischer told the joint news conference that he held together with
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani that --- "We expect to boost our volume of trade to 300 million Euros in the short term, and we then look forward to markedly increasing our economic relations."

The gates are now open. Exports all forms of trade will be spilling out and in to Iran. But make no mistake about it, the balance will definitely be in Iran's favor.

Iran is officially out of the doghouse. In answer to that popular question: Who let the dogs out? We did. Woof, woof!

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Iran Backs Assad --- Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Foreign Minister Jarif said yesterday that calling for Syrian leader Assad's removal is wrong. He said Assad's departure will only cause more death and devastation.

The importance of these comments is that they indicate how the lines are drawn and how each side sets up.

In the West it is simply assumed that Assad is bad and that he must go. But Iran and Russia disagree with us. Remember, Russia just re-established a very large presence in the Middle East that includes fighter jets to attack ISIS and al Qaeda. The Russians have moved into a base outside of Damascus and their pilots and jets are all there.

We should never forget that Russia, together with Iran, have significant boots and weapons on the ground.

The West talk as much as it wants about ousting Assad -- but Russia and Iran are propping him up and making it more and more difficult to dislodge him.

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Crooks Beat Up Holocaust Survivors in Amsterdam
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Crooks beat up and tied up two Holocaust survivors, aged 86 and 97, in their own home in Amsterdam. The perpetrators called their victims "dirty Jews" and then stole their jewelry.

The thugs knocked on the elderly couple's door and declared "police, open up." The thugs then badly beat the pair and threatened to cut off the wife's fingers to steal her rings.

It all happened on August 4th - and the story is only now becoming known. The son of this elderly couple has offered a reward of 10,000 Euro for information that leads to the capture of the criminals. He has posted pictures of his parents and their wounds on the internet so that people can see how heinous and brutal the attack was. The pictures are very disturbing.

The survivors who were once independent are now confined to wheel chairs.

Attacking the weak and the aged in their homes is vile and heartless. Attacking Holocaust survivors is a new low - even for European anti-Semites.

The police have promised to take the case and all it symbolizes seriously but now, more than a month later, the authorities have still not arrested the evil perpetrators.

This is what you call a "shanda." Shame on them!

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US Congressman Calls It "Peace in Our Time"
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

US Congressman Patrick Murphy of Florida said he supports President Obama's Iran deal because, among other things, it will bring "peace in our time."

Murphy used the infamous Chamberlain quote to explain his support of the Nuke Deal.

When I heard about it - I couldn't believe it. So I checked it out and it was true. Here is the exact quote:

"I believe deeply in the unbreakable bond between the United States and Israel."

"This debate has proven to me that America and Israel are fortunate to have so many passionate, diverse voices who all want the same things: a nuclear-free Iran, a secure Israel, and peace in our time. In the interest of all three, I will be supporting this deal and voting against a Resolution of Disapproval in September."

In 1938 worried about the advances of Hitler's Germany, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain went and signed the Munich Pact which forced Czechoslovakia to give Germany the Sudetenland. And that was supposed to appease Hitler's desire to conquer Europe. Chamberlain returned from the meeting with the Munich Paper in his hands and announced at the foot of the stairs of his plane. "We have achieved peace in our time."

Actually, that was just part of Hitler's plan which duped Western leaders. Murphy should brush up on his history before making such grandiose statements.

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Iranian Plane Flies to US Carrier and Flims It
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian plane flew right up to a US air craft carrier and filmed it.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said that it was part of normal activities in the Straits of Hormuz and was one of several ways in which they regularly patrol the entire region.

The report said: "The latest Revolutionary Guard operation is a mission to identify an American aircraft carrier passing through the region, carried out by a navy reconnaissance plane called the Harbin Y-2."

And then it added: "For some time, the Revolutionary Guard has had modern drone technology, and it is carrying out missions to identify foreign vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz."

According to Tasnim, the Persian media outlet: "The most well-known example of this is a Revolutionary Guard drone's reconnaissance mission to identify an American aircraft carrier in the Strait of Hormuz; images from this were broadcast live to a Revolutionary Guard commanders' conference in Mashhad province."

One part of the video that was released by the Iranians was hilarious. The Crew on the carrier was seen staring at the plane and looking right into the camera. It was almost as if they were asking: What are you doing here?

The United States did nothing. They just stood and watched as they were being filmed.

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Hajj Pilgrim on Hover-board
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 3, 3015

I've Been Thinking:

It is the season of the Hajj. Muslims from all over the world make pilgrimage to Mecca and circle the Kabba 7 times.

Watching a video of this religious act, I observed that in the section reserved for the elderly, the disabled and wheelchairs, a man was on a hover board. Yes - a hover board. Wearing white robes and holding his hands together, there was a blue glow under him as he scooted by the other pilgrims.

The hands free "segway" as it is called, actually has wheels. Wheels but no handles. It forward when you lean forward and slows when you shift weight.

The web was filled with comments and the video went viral.

Can one scoot or hover while performing the "tawaf", the 7 circles around the Kabba. Must one walk? Can anyone use a wheel chair or only someone who cannot walk? The next best thing, one would think, is a motorized scooter - but a hover board?!

Islam meets the future or back to the future - I'm not quite sure.


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A Jewish Hero Dies
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A great Jewish hero has died. His name is Mark Dymshitz and he was 88 years old.

Dymshitz was a prisoner of Zion, a "refusenik". He was one of the leaders of the early years of the struggle by Russian Jews to escape persecution under Soviet rule.

Dymshitz drew attention to Soviet Jewry by attempting to hijack a plane in what was then Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, on June 15, 1970. The plan was called Operation Wedding. 16 refuseniks took part in the plan - 14 Jews and 2 non Jews.

Dymshitz was a pilot and along with fellow dissident Edward Kuznetsov, planned to hijack the plane and fly it to Israel. The group bought up all the seats on the 12 seater Antonov An -2 plane.

The plan failed and Mark Dymshitz was sentenced to death. His punishment was commuted because of world outcry and finally, in 1979, he was freed in a swap with the USSR.

The attempted hijacking and the audacity and daring of the plan drew huge attention to the plight of Soviet Jews.

Dymshitz and the 13 others who collaborated with him on Operation Wedding, even though it failed miserably as a plan, were truly heroes.

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A Hassid Fights Against ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

This is simply a weird story - but so important to tell. I read it in YNETnews.

Timothy Paul Jacobs Wordsworth aka Batn el Ghoul is fighting with the Kurds against ISIS in Iraq.

His grandparents survived Dachau - but his parents converted to Christianity and he was taught to love Israel.

Timothy was raised to fight for good against evil. He joined the British army and he even moved to Israel where he joined the Bratslav Chassidic sect. Timothy could not become a citizen of Israel, he will try again soon.

Interesting, right? But not the most interesting part of the story.
Here comes the most interesting part.

Every place in which Timothy Paul Jacobs Wordsworth fights and defeats ISIS, he tags with graffiti. He writes his graffiti in Hebrew. He writes: Na Na Nachman Me'uman. Rabbi Nachman from the city of Uman, the phrase on the lips of all Bratslav chassidim.

Timoathy aka Batn el Ghoul says that he wants to bring sunlight into an area of darkness. According to the interview he ends practically every sentence with the phrase "Am Yisrael Chai" (the nation of Israel lives on).

Now that is interesting.

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Luxembourg Chain Boycotts Israel Products
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 31, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The largest supermarket chain in Luxembourg has just joined the boycott against Israeli products.

The chain has said that until it can be proven that a product is not produced in the West Bank, the product from Israel will not be sold in their markets.

The Cactus Supermarket chain said that it was easier to do business in this way than to suffer the inconvenience of protesters and their impact on the shoppers. Cactus management said that they use very few Israeli products anyway.

They also followed up by saying that they would continue to sell Israeli produced Soda-Stream and other equipment that compose a larger percentage of their sales.

Luxembourg is a tiny country of about 500,000 people with a GDP (gross domestic product) of about $53 billion.

The size of the country and the size of the supermarket chain do not matter. This boycott must be stopped not because it will hurt Israel, but because it is the principle that counts. Boycotts are anti- democratic and anti-freedom.

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Rouhani Against the Vote
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

As I wrote several days ago, Iranian leadership had decided to mimic the US and have a parliamentary debate and vote on the famous Nuclear Deal.

But the other day, President Hassan Rouhani announced that he opposes the vote. The Iranian president told a news conference that the agreement is not a treaty and does not need either a vote or a debate.

Rouhani said that it was an understanding between the parties. If it is voted upon in parliament, he said, that would mean that the agreement would have legal obligations in Iran and that would not be advantageous.

In other words - there would be internal legal issues if the Iranians violated the agreement.

Rouhani said that the deal says that Iran is not obligated by the agreement. He says that the deal very clearly states that Iran will implement the terms of the agreement voluntarily. If, on the other hand, it is voted upon by parliament it is no longer voluntary and instead becomes becomes legally binding in Iran and that is not to their benefit.

Democracy versus realpolitik.

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Swiss Ambassador Calls Iran "Pole of Stability"
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Swiss ambassador to Iran addressed 500 Swiss business people and called on them to run back to Teheran and invest.

Ambassador Guilio Haas said that Iran was "a pole of stability" in the Middle East and now that the sanctions are over it is a perfect and safe place to invest. Haas urged those listening to his message to take advantage of a lucrative market that has been closed for years.

Haas was not just referring to the oil markets. He was referring to the entire Iranian market. And he was urging the heads of business to invest in Iran.

"Iran seems still for a lot of people to be bearded, elderly gentlemen with turbans. You see them, but you see not a lot of them, especially when you're dealing with business," Haas said.

This is the new modus operandi across Europe. European investors are excited about the possibilities that will emerge out of Iran.

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Iran Invites Israeli Conductor
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is a society that loves culture, especially music.
So it was not a surprise for me to learn that Iran has been working out details so that the Berlin State Opera Orchestra can come to visit Teheran, Iran.

The Iranians love great music. And this is one of the greatest orchestras in the world. The only hitch is that the musical director/conductor is an Israeli named Daniel Barenbiom.

The word is that the orchestra will accompany Angela Merkel when she visits Teheran on an official visit -- the plans for that are also in the works.

The ministry of culture in Iran has confirmed that details are being worked out but would not comment on whether Barenboim will have a problem getting a visa. Barenboim has also conducted a Palestinian youth orchestra in Ramallah amidst protestors there. The original plan was to have a joint Israeli - Palestinian youth band but that failed.

Iran will probably make an exception for Barenboim.
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Saudi King To Visit DC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It is not yet official, but it looks like King Salman, the new king of Saudi Arabia, will visit Washington DC on September 5th and 6th.

This will be his first trip to the United States as king. Salman ascended to the throne in January after the death of King Abdullah.

New heads of state usually rush to DC to meet the president of the United States. But Salman waited, he wanted to play it cool. He wanted to make his own evaluations of the players in Washington. And most importantly, he wanted everyone - especially the United States to know that he was not Abdullah, that he was his own man.

The word is also out that Salman will visit Egypt on his way back from the United States to Saudi Arabia. This, too, is important because the relationship between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has become strained of late, especially over the tension between the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Hamas in Gaza. Saudi Arabia sides with the Muslim Brotherhood.

He is an interesting character this King Salman of Saudi Arabia. He bears watching.

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BDS -- A Chance to Beat Them
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The BDS (Boycott Divest & Sanction Israel) movement has taken off like wildfire in the United States and in Europe.

Lovers of Israel are stymied by the attraction and magnetism that the movement has generated. They are asking why is it that so many young people and critical thinkers are running to embrace a movement that condemns Israel and blames nearly all the problems of the world - certainly all the problems in the Middle East, on Israel's occupation of the Palestinians.

For the longest time I feared that the battle was lost. I feared that there was no possible chance of convincing BDS supporters that they were wrong. Pointing out that the facts did not support their movement was fruitless. Like Hamas and ISIS, BDS supporters held strong to their point of view and did not let facts get in the way of their beliefs. Quite simply, they hated Israel and that in their eyes the world would be vastly improved without Israel.

But recently, after the debacle in Spain during which world famous and obviously Jewish reggae singer Matisyahu refused to sign a declaration supporting a Palestinian state and was then removed not permitted to perform in a festival, I saw a glimmer of hope.

People, not lovers of Israel at all, just plain people and the publications that supported the BDS movement suddenly realized that the movement was not about mutually resolving an issue - but rather, it was about destroying Israel to make room for the Palestinians.

The government of Spain apologized for the embarrassing incident. They publicly and personally said that what happened was wrong and anti Semitic - and they re-invited Matisyahu to perform. National and local papers said more or less the same thing - that they support a Palestinians state but they do not support anti Semitism.

I am wary, yet hopeful that many followers of BDS fit into this category. I hope that they have seen the true hateful colors of the BDS movement. That BDS supporters now realize that rational people can disagree with Israel and support Palestinian statehood without advocating the destruction of Israel.

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Iran's New Missile
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just unveiled their newest missile, it is called the Fateh 313.

I watched the videos of their celebration and the test launching complete with all the hype and all the propaganda one would expect at such an auspicious occasion.

The missile seems very effective. It has a range of 500 kilometers, which is 310 miles, and the claim is that it has pinpoint accuracy.

The celebration, the display, the announcement and all the accompanying bravado is essential to the Iranian strategy.

Despite the nuke deal, Iran is moving ahead on missile production. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that "We will buy, sell and develop any weapons we need and we will not ask for permission or abide by any resolution for that."

It might surprise you to know that weapons production is not in violation of The Deal signed between Iran and the P5 +1- - - but Iranian action and the building of these missiles is definitely in violation of countless other UN Security Council resolutions.

Another example of the game Iran is playing, and playing so very well.

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Britain Opens Embassy in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Things are looking good if you're an Iranian leader.

Change is happening vis a vis Iran and the rest of the world - especially the Western world.

Great Britain just reopened their embassy in Teheran, Iran. It was opened in a joyous, hopeful, optimistic, ceremony. The flag was raised by British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond. Hammond is the first British foreign secretary to visit Iran since 2003. The British embassy has been shuttered closed since protesters stormed it in 2011.

Hammond's presence at the opening is no small gesture. It symbolizes a drastic and major move to advance diplomatic re-positioning where Iran is becoming a player.

This is a theme I have continuously repeated. Iran is more interested in high level, world power, diplomatic stature than they are over any nuclear technology. They want it because it improves world influence and impact as well as economic strength and power.
Europe is mistakenly unfurling and raising the Union Jack without first seeing if Iran is really complying with the agreements they are so readily signing.

In an unrelated item, also effecting the British:
A new video of Jihadi John, ISIS' famous be-header was just posted to the internet. In it he says-- "I will go back to Britain... and will carry on cutting heads off".

Mohammed Emwazi, aka Jihad John, is 26 years old and he is one of the world's most wanted men. The United States has put out a $10 million reward for his capture.

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IDF Strikes Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

As I predicted last week, Israel's northern border with Syria has become very hot and rocket upon rocket has been launched into
Israel. In retaliation, Israel has launched air strikes into Syria.
Israel hit six target sites. Each site had multiple targets within it. Israel hit Hezbollah sites and al Nusra sites as well as Syrian military bases.

The objective of Israel's air attack was to issue a warning to all the forces in Syria - including Iran - to not deliberately launch rocket attacks against them. It was clear that the night before the Israeli retaliation, rockets direct from Syria were aimed at and shot into Israel.

An IDF senior officer was quoted saying: "We hold the Syrian state responsible." "We attacked with tanks, artillery, and one target from the air... We attacked several kilometers into Syria, five or six sites with multiple targets within each site. Our attacks are much more severe this time around, in order to send a message and underscore the severity of this incident."

I predict that Iran will test the waters yet again and that Hezbollah and Syrian forces will again launch their rockets into Israel and Israel will, again, strike back. Only next time Israel will strike back more fiercely, wiping out even more of the military infrastructure.

Iran is testing Israel. Iran wants to see what kind of defenses Israel has in the north. It wants to see those defenses in play.

If Israel plays it smart they will stick to conventional methods of retaliation and not show too much of their hand to the enemy. To do otherwise is to play right into the hands of Iran.

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New Tunnel Technology for IDF
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

We know Hamas is digging new tunnels.

We know how dangerous the tunnels were last year and know that tunnels were the chief reason for Israel's defensive operation into Gaza.

Over the past year Israel has developed a series of anti-tunnel technologies to combat the tunnels that Hamas is using as a weapon against Israel.

Israel is testing and re-testing the technology. They do not want to claim that the six or seven technologies they have are all effective for two reasons. One reason is that Israel may still need to fine tune the technology and the second reason is that Israel wants to keep Hamas guessing.

I have seen pictures of the Israeli anti-tunnel equipment partially buried along the Gaza fence.. The IDF is also using tunnels - they are building their tunnels as testing grounds for the technologies.
These tunnels are on IDF bases. They are in the sand and replicate the terrain of Gaza.

Israel has devoted enormous funds to develop technologies to help defend against tunnel warfare, but just like with every other technology, nothing is 100% effective.

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Abbas Heading to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and the Palestinian Authority are repairing their relationship.
This is not good news. It is bad for Israel and really bad for the United States.

An announcement informing the world that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will soon be making a visit to Teheran, Iran was carried all over the Palestinian press.

An official invitation letter was sent to Abbas by the Iranian government and an advance team of Palestinians has been formed and will set off to work out the agenda and the details of the visit.

Palestinian emissary Ahmad Majdalani, has already returned from Teheran. His comments are essential in understanding the new relationship forming between the two countries. He said that the Iranian Palestinian relationship was: "an inevitable step if we [the Palestinians] want to confront the Israeli occupation."

The Palestinians want Iranian money and support. But there is tension and the main source of tension has to do with Syria. Iran supports Assad and his regime. Abbas has come out against the Assad regime and in favor of the revolt. But of late, the PA has tried to stay above the fray and not get involved in the Syrian situation.

Iran cannot countenance the PA not toeing the line on Syria. In order for Iran to support the PA, the Palestinian Authority must conform to certain world policy standards that Iran will set down.

We will watch and we will see if the PA veers from their original course and takes a stand in support of Assad. When that happens, it will be a clear sign that Iran is supporting the Palestinian Authority.

A clear sign - not a good sign.

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Iran Leaders Counter Move
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The guiding principle propelling the desire of the White house to go forward with the Iran nuclear deal is the conviction that, with the deal, the United States can exert influence over Iran. The argument the White house is supporting is that any deal, even a bad deal, allows for dialogue between the United States and Iran.

Here lies the problem: Iran already countered this argument when they said that they reject any economic or political influence or interference from the United States - and their Islamic leaders are issuing warnings and taking steps to prevent such influence.

On Monday Iran's Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted on his web site. The excerpt was taken from a conversation the Supreme Leader had with members of Iran's state radio and state television networks.

This is what he said:

"They thought this deal - and it is not clear if it will be passed in Iran or in America - will open up Iran to their influence."

"We blocked this path and will definitely block it in the future. We won't allow American political, economic or cultural influence in Iran."

Note that the Supreme Leader is not yet certain that the deal will or will not pass the debate in the Iranian parliament. But whether ir clears or not, he is, in no uncertain terms, countering the US move to exert influence over Iran.

Move. Counter move. Now it's up to the United States. How will the US counter now?

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IDF Poised to Attack Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The IDF is running exercises on the Golan Heights. They have amassed significant troops and weapons there.

Rumors are spreading that Israel is preparing to strike inside Syria. The scuttlebutt is that Iran has armed and prepared a large numbers of Syrian fighters and outfitted them with sophisticated weapons.

There is tension between Hezbollah fighters sponsored by Iran and al Nusra fighters sponsored by al Qaeda.

The conflict itself, coupled with the proximity of the military camps is worrisome. The camps are located very close to Israel's border. .

Under normal circumstances one would hope that Hezbollah and al Qaeda and ISIS would just destroy each other. But the conflict is spilling over to Israel and there are many among those groups who want to attack Israel.

Recently, four Druze terrorists were killed as they planted bombs along the border with Israel. Their objective was to kill as many Israeli soldiers as they could.

Israel needs to make certain that their border stays safe.

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Israeli-Arab Town Names Sq After Nasser
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Kfar Mond is an Arab village in the Galilee. It is in Israel. All of the residents of the village are Israeli citizens. They are not part of any revolt and they do not question their citizenship in Israel.

Last week the Town Council of Kfar Mond decided to name the newly built main square after Gamal Abdul Nasser the former dictator of Egypt. The proposal was put forth by the Hadash faction and the council approved. Hadash is one of the Arab-backed political parties in Israel.

There has been major blow back - but not it NY way one might expect.
Muslim parties in Kfar Mond are saying that Nasser arrested and murdered Islamic leaders. Nasser repressed religious political development, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, and they do not want to see his name glorified.

Hadash defended their proposal saying that Nasser was an Arab hero.
The entire idea is unusual, but such is democracy at work in Israel.

Nasser was an enemy of Israel, a man who never made peace with Israel. And yet, a town square in Israel is to be named after him.
And yet again, if the decision is made to change the decision, it will be based on the fact that Nasser persecuted the Muslim Brotherhood - not because of his animus towards Israel and Israelis.

Wow!


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Israeli Tourism Bounced Back
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Last year at this time the FAA listed Israel as a dangerous location and United States carriers were not permitted to fly to Israel.

Israeli tourism took a huge hit.

July and August 2014 saw cancellation after cancellation.
Conferences, tourists, groups, individuals, one after the other they all cancelled out of fear. The conflict between Gaza and Israel was very costly. Part of the cost was the downturn in the tourism market and that decline impacted the greater Israeli economy.

It is now one year later and this August looks like it will break all tourism records as 2 million people enter Israel via Ben Gurion airport.

On Thursday August 13, 80,000 travelers arrived in Israel - a record for a single day. They traveled on 457 flights from all over the world. Of course some of those entering Ben Gurion were Israelis returning home from their time out of the country. Record breaking statistics aside - imagine the lines!

These are good markers for an exciting economy. Tourism and travel in general are important components of Israel's economy. And the summer months are one of the busiest times for travel.

The Israel travel industry has bounced back from the damage inflicted on it by Hamas last year.

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Why Israel Made it Public
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It is out of character for Israel to go public with news about the arrest and the interrogation of a Hamas leader as they did with Ibrahim Shear.

The details that were made public to the press, details that I wrote about yesterday, would normally be held as top secret intelligence to be used in helping save Israelis and defend Israel.

So why did the office of the prime minister go public with these details? That office determines the security needs of the nation on every level - so what was the point Israel and the prime minister were trying to make here?

Israel wants Hamas to know that they know what Hamas knows and Israel wants Hamas to know that their leader broke under the pressure of interrogation.

There are several reasons behind the decision by Israel to make this public.

#1 It tells Hamas that Israel knows a lot - and now Hamas has to ask what else Israel knows. That question can inhibit and prevent an attack.

# 2 The international community is now aware of what is happening in Gaza and that will give Israel diplomatic cover when they strike Gaza.

# 3 The knowledge that Iran is sponsoring the terror infrastructure of Hamas will help Netanyahu in his battle against Obama in Congress. The money that the United States has given to Iran will no doubt go to Hamas to attack Israel, and Congress and the White House need to know that.

# 4 Hamas is gaining friends and access to international bodies, they are wined and dined in capitals across the world. This will hopefully show some of those states what Hamas is doing now.

In the final analysis the Israeli prime minister's office believes that making this information available to the press and open to public discussion will make Israel safer.I think that he is correct.

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Hamas Leader Discloses Iran's Role & New Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel arrested and interrogated a high level Hamas terror leader.
His name is Ibrahim Shaer. The information that he gave will save Israeli lives.

That information has now been cleared for release.
According to Ibrahim Shaer, Hamas has built and rebuilt, dug and re-dug, new and old tunnels.

Shaer gave the locations of the tunnels and directions to get inside. In addition he explained that the new road that Hamas built along the border was to be used as part of an attack that would include vehicles. He said that the tunnels were attack tunnels and smuggling tunnels.

Shaer also confirmed that Iran was sponsoring the building, sending new weapons and training Hamas fighters.
Contrary to what was assumed, Iran is still heavily sponsoring Hamas. Iran is sending weapons, money and electronics. The electronics are jamming devices.

And of course, these materials are being stored among the civilian population.

Again, this information will save lives.

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Iran & Russia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif will travel to Moscow to meet Russian leaders next week sometime.

The visit was announced on Taas media which is an official media outlet of the Russians. Interestingly, the outlet quoted the Iranian embassy in Moscow as its source, saying that "the exact day will be announced in the coming days."

It was a news source exactly like this one that announced, this past Friday, that Iranian General Sulamani visited Russia - despite his UN travel ban.

Sulamani is head of the Iranian al Quds force and is responsible for the death of hundreds of Americans. He is banned from international travel.

These two examples of Iranian leaders going to Moscow illustrate an essential point. Iran and Russia are positioning themselves as players on the world stage. Sending Sulamani to Russia and having the Russians not only receive him but also publicly announce the visit is an intentional move by both Iran and Russia aimed at flaunting international law and UN decisions.

Remember - this was all done after the Iranian deal was announced.

And now, sending Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif to Moscow shows us again that Russia and Iran are plotting and planning to conduct serious negotiations. Ultimately, their mutual goal is to position themselves as world leaders who can propose solutions for the many problematic areas around the world.

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Brazil Will Not Put Israel on Passport
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It was the United States, Canada, France and now it is Brazil.
Brazil announced that they, too, will not add the word Israel on the passports of citizens born in Jerusalem.

This is the exact same issue that the US Supreme Court ruled on several months ago when it decided that it is the president who determines foreign policy. And so, for US citizens born in Jerusalem their passports do not say Israel.

Now Brazil has joined the ranks of the US, Canada and France. These are the countries that do not add Israel as the name of the country after Jerusalem, the name of the city on the passports of citizens born in the capital city of Israel.

The logic behind this should be clear. In the eyes of the leadership of these countries Jerusalem is in dispute. Not just part of Jerusalem, as in East Jerusalem or what some call Arab Jerusalem, but all of Jerusalem.

This is the same reason why countries do not recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and instead choose to locate their embassies in Tel Aviv.

This entire episode is indicative of the attitude of the world toward Israel - not just Israel after 1967, but Israel from its inception in 1948. Leaders and nations have always are still continue to question the very existence of the State of Israel.

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Iran Against "The Deal"
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

In Iran today there is substantial and significant opposition to "The Deal."

The opposition comes not simply from hardliners in the Iranian Parliament, it also comes from the elite Revolutionary Guard. The Guard controls much of the industry in Iran and owns an interest in almost every walk of the Iranian economy - from oil and gas to real estate.

The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammed Ali Jaffari, has publicly renounced the agreement. He says that the agreement will weaken Iran's military power and put them at a strategic disadvantage.

It should be noted that there are also Iranian leaders who have embraced the agreement.

Iran has decided to mirror the United States. The Iranian Parliament will engage in debate and then vote to either accept or reject the agreement.

In the end, the debate will take place but the Supreme Leader will ultimately be the decision maker.

As of this moment it is not clear that he will accept the agreement.
Why might the Supreme Leader decide against the agreement? There are many possible reasons that can be given, but the one true answer is that Iran wants even more from the agreement.

I would call that chutzpah!

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Hamas Shooting Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday three rockets were shot from Gaza toward Israel. The rockets landed not in Israel, but instead, two landed inside Gaza and one landed just inside the fence. On Friday there were more rockets.

On the rocket front this summer has been very quiet. There have only been a handful of Gaza rockets into Israel. That said Israel cannot accept Hamas shooting rockets toward Israel - even if they miss.

So on Friday the Israeli air force bombed the sources of the rockets. Hamas needs to know that they must keep things quiet. If it stays quiet in Israel, it will be quiet in Gaza.

Hamas claims that they are not the one launching the rockets.

But that does not matter, certainly not for Israel. The essential point is that if Hamas is in charge they must be responsible for keeping Gaza quiet.

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Hamas Plays PA in Soccer
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, for the first time in many moons, the Palestinians engaged in a display of unity. It cannot last long, but Hamas and the PA engaged in a sense of communal and national solidarity.

The Palestinian Authority and Hamas played soccer. Yes, a soccer game. The PA team dressed in green, Hamas dressed in red. The match was played in Gaza in front of 7,000 people. The game ended in goalless 0-0.

A second match will be played in the West Bank. That match is called the Palestinian Cup and the winner of the match will play in the
Asian Cup representing the Palestinians. Jibril Rajoub, head of the Palestinian soccer federation, named the match.

It might look like a simple game, but this sporting event, this decision to play a soccer match, is a huge move. As much as they can say that there is no politics in sports and that sports is above politics - Palestinian sports is very politically charged.

Even letting Hamas compete against the PA with the possibility of their winning and then representing the Palestinians - in anything, no less the Asia cup, is a gargantuan gesture of unity.

Even if Hamas does not win, all of Gaza will have seen that that the Palestinian Authority attempted to extend their hand.

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Iran Hosting Peace Summit
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is hosting Russia and Syria in a peace summit this week.

The results of the summit will be presented to the United Nations as a peace proposal for Syria.

Now, there is no doubt that Syria has suffered horrific carnage over the past 4 years. But how can any country, let alone Iran, hope to compose a deal with only one side in attendance - and no one has invited the anti-Assad rebels to participate.

Iran has supported Assad of Syria from the very outset of the conflict. So has Russia. So whatever the agreed upon proposal is, it will certainly be biased towards Assad.

Most interesting than the outcome of the peace summit, - is the host of the peace summit and the participants.

Iran has turned itself into the peacemaker. Russia is the international team leader. Where is the United States?

From the point of view of this summit, the United States is on the outs, not necessary, to be ignored.

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Iran Will Snap Back
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to take great advantage of The Deal and the lifting of sanctions.

Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said in a state radio interview on Sunday that, "We are already doing marketing, and within a day after the lifting of sanctions we will raise (production) by 500,000 barrels per day".

He also added that within a few months the Iranians will increase their oil production by 1million barrels per day.

This is one of the most important announcements made thus far.

Iran is saying that they have a significant plan in place that will catapult them into one of the largest oil exporters in the world.
And straight from the mouth of the Iranian oil minister we are being told that, when it comes to oil, Iran plans to morph into a behemoth practically overnight.

That sure scares me, what about you?.


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Jordanian Planes ReRoute to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday a massive sand storm carpeted Amman, Jordan. For hours no flights could take off or land.

Sand storms happen in the Middle East. In Arabic there are many names for the winds and the sands that blow. Arabic probably has as many words to describe the winds and the sands as the Eskimos have for snow and the various storms and precipitation they live with regularly.

Royal Jordanian air flights were rerouted and landed in Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. That was a wise and safe solution to a problem. With sand storms you cannot predict how long they will last so rerouting is a very good idea.

In this case two Jordanian flights landed in Israel.

But what about the rest of the air traffic, what about flights from other countries, countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel and would never land there?

Those flights rerouted to Aquba, the tiny Jordanian airport on the Red Sea. The runway was short and it was not ideal, but everyone made it safely.

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Stop Jewish Jihadis
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is whirling from the terrible violence Jews have been perpetrating in the name of religion.

The latest victim is16 year old Shira Banki, a high school student marching in the Gay Pride Parade that was held in Jerusalem. After having been savagely and brutally stabbed in public, in front of cameras and police, Shira succumbed to her wounds.

The murderer had been released from prison only the month before after serving 10 years of a 15 year sentence for attacking people at a gay pride parade in Jerusalem ten years ago.

This attack and many other attacks by Jews could - and should, have been prevented.

Israel needs to lower the evidence bar when it comes to cases of Jewish Jihad.

There must be administrative detention for Jews engaged in acts of terror or violence just as there is for Palestinians. This means that when there is not enough evidence to convict, police detain
suspects because of a greater risk.

Rabbis who incite and justify violence must be arrested, charged and tried for incitement. Curricula must be created to teach about differences and tolerance. And courts and leaders must give stringent penalties to Jewish Jihadis.

These are those who want to murder people because they are different and because they believe themselves to have the moral ground and to have Jewish arguments to prove their case.

There are not many Jewish Jihadis - perhaps several hundred,, but they must be publically condemned by both political and religious Jewish leadership in Israel and abroad.

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Russia Out-Smarts US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians announced that on Sunday August 2nd and Monday August 3rd, their foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, will meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al- Jubeir.

They will meet in Qatar.

The Russian announcement said that the topics for discussion are: how to move toward peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya, how to move forward in the fight against ISIS and the best ways of maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf.

Russia is positioning itself as a power broker. They want to be seen as the most significant force capable of assuring conflict resolutions. Russia has outmaneuvered the United States in the region for the past two years - this announcement is one more example.

What we have here is Russian leadership - and US participation.

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Al Qaeda Captures CIA Trained Syrians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Al Nusra Front, the al Qaeda group in Syria, announced that they have captured Syrian rebels that were trained by the CIA.

The message said that the group was captured after they crossed over the border.

As if it could not get worse or more pitiful or simply ludicrous - only 60 rebels have thus far been trained by the CIA since the program began a year ago. And now a significant number (any number is significant ! ) have been captured.

The captured rebels will be tortured and executed. Any important intel and information they might have to give over will be harvested by al Qaeda before they execute the CIA trained Syrians.

The US plan is not working very well, but this is how it goes: Train Syrians to fight Assad, Hezbollah, al Qaeda (al Nusra) and ISIS and then take over Syria.

The problem is that if the few who have been trained cannot even hole their own and defend themselves - how are they going to take over the country.

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Putin Assures Netanyahu -- Iran Deal is Good
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 31, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Kremlin released a statement about a conversation that took place between Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. The purpose of the conversation was to assure Netanyahu that the Iranian deal will not lead to a nuclear Iran and that the deal will provide for a safer Middle East.

According to the statesmen Putin told Netanyahu that the agreement includes "solid guarantees that the Iranian nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful."

It continued to explain "that implementing it would positively impact the security and stability of the Middle East."

There can be no doubt that Netanyahu does not believe that Putin is correct. Israel is in the midst of mounting a serious battle to convince the few Democratic members of Congress to nix the Iranian deal and this conversation has not changed or swayed that campaign in
the least.

Netanyahu knows that Putin and Russia do what is best for Putin and Russia. And he realizes that Putin wants calm in the Middle East and does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons.

And yet, despite the assurances and the knowledge conveyed by Putin, Netanyahu is not convinced that Russia, the United States and the deal can keep Iran nuclear weapons free. Not collectively and certainly not individually.

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Jewish Athletes Compete in Berlin
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Jewish Olympics, the European Maccabi Games, are being played in Berlin. Hard to imagine - but true.

Not just are the games being played in Berlin, the games are being played in the same stadium that Adolf Hitler built for the 1936 Olympics. 2,100 proud and strong Jews playing Olympic games in Hitler's Germany.

This is a powerful image. Hitler used the stadium to propagandize his vision. It was there in that stadium that that Hitler created pageants and huge pyrotechnical performances all in order to glorify the racist message of the superiority of their Teutonic Aryan philosophy.

Today Europe is undergoing a resurgence of anti-Semitism. But because of these Jewish Olympic games, because of the Maccabi games, European leaders are coming out to join in a celebration of Jewish life and Jewish creativity.

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Pollard Release
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jonathan Pollard's lawyers announced yesterday that the parole board decided to free Pollard on November 21 of this year, the 30th anniversary of his imprisonment.

The US Department of Justice has not challenged the decision - so without resistance Pollard may see his freedom in just a few short months.

Pollard told the parole board on July 7 that he had a job lined up and a place to live in New York City. The job and NYC seem to be terms of his parole. Israel and others are hoping that they can convince the board to permit him to leave the United States and go to Israel.

As of now that does not seem to be in the cards.

The announcement by lawyers representing Jonathan Pollard, closely followed by comments from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, are all signs that seem to imply that this is a done deal.

However, I must point out that there were times in the past when Pollard was nearly set free and then, at the last minute, the deal was cancelled.

I am hopeful that this time will be different, but I will be convinced only when I see Jonathan Pollard leave prison as a free man.

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Russia & Turkey Talk About the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Kremlin held a press conference yesterday to summarize an important conversation that took place on Sunday between Putin of Russia and Erdogan of Turkey.

According to the statement released by the Kremlin, the two leaders had an important telephone conversation. The topics under discussion included the situation in the Middle East. They spoke about Iraq and Syria and most especially, they spoke ISIS.

They also discussed the spread of terror and the need to fight
terrorism.

The most important component of their discussion was Russia's interest in uniting the various countries in the region to confront ISIS and to fight extremism.

The Kremlin spokesman said that in the Sunday conversation the leaders "exchanged opinions on the situation in the Middle East, first of all in Syria and Iraq, in the framework of stepping up multilateral and bilateral coordination with the aim of increasing efficiency of countering threats from the Islamic State."

"It was stressed that consolidation of efforts of all interested countries is necessary on the basis of international law to successfully fight the spread of terrorism and extremism."

This is important stuff - especially coming, in unison, from Russia and Turkey.

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The Mullahs of Iran Are Against the Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian religious leadership has a very interesting "take" on the nuclear agreement.

It seems that religious leadership in Iran believes that the agreement is a trap. They think it is a lure with promises of great economic rewards. And they think that what the United States, Israel and all the other nations who were forcing the agreement really want - is a change of leadership in Iran.

The religious leaders think that the entire purpose of the agreement is to entice Iran into understanding Western ways so that they will view the world outside of Iran as beneficial to the masses in Iran.

They fear that those Iranians who yearn for improved economic and cultural exchanges with the outside world will - because of the nuclear agreement, immediately see and understand the new status Iran has achieved.

Iranian religious leadership may not be so far off.
And Iranian religious leadership is petrified that their assessment will come true.

If their fears are realized, it means that they, the religious leadership of Iran, would be ousted and their values and their stranglehold on the youth, the culture and the economy of Iran would be vaporized.

So, why did Rouhani receive permission from the Supreme Leader of Iran to sign off on the deal, and why has the rest of Iranian religious leadership remained quiet until now? The answer is that the religious leaders in Iran understood how important it was to lift the sanctions and improve their economy. Now that it is a done deal, they will clamp down on the hopes and dreams of reformers and youth attempting to use this agreement as a springboard to freedom.

Iranian religious leadership is telling the United States -- "We see your games and understand you moves."

This is the only way we can interpret the numerous comment made by the Supreme Leader immediately before and since the announcement of the nuclear agreement.

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Israel Gives Jordan 16 Cobra Helicopters
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel gave Jordan 16 Cobra helicopters.

The helicopters are all originally US made and were part of a US arms deal. But these Cobras have since been retired. The United States needed to sign off on the transfer of these Cobras to Jordan.

The purpose of the gift from Israel to Jordan is to help Jordan patrol its borders with Syria and Iraq. For that purpose, these helicopters are perfectly adequate.

These borders are porous and ISIS and al Qaeda have used the holes to penetrate into Jordan. Without a doubt ISIS and Al Qaeda want to destabilize Jordan.

It is in the best interest of Israel to secure those borders and to make certain that Jordan remains stable.

With this arms deal everyone win. The United States is happy that there is real cooperation between Jordan and Israel on regional matters. Israel is happy because it adds to their credibility and stability. Jordan is happy because it is seriously protecting itself from ISIS and al Qaeda.

This is what you call a no brainer.


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Turkey & ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian border with Turkey has become very hot lately. There have been serious skirmishes and exchanges of fire between ISIS on the Syrian side and Turkey firing back from their side.

A Turkish soldier was killed and another wounded in the exchange of fire.

Turkey also scrambled their air force and sent fighter jets to the area. The jets fired and struck ISIS targets.

Finally, there are unconfirmed reports that the Turks have given a green light to the United States, saying that they will host US fighter jets that will attack ISIS in Syria.

Until now the Turks have said that they will not host the US military and their fighter jets. But things have changed. Turkey is clearly an SIS target. ISIS wants to destabilize the entire region - and that includes Turkey.

The United States does not need to take off from Turkey. The mission was not hampered or limited in any way because of the reluctance of Turkey up until now. This is as much about diplomacy as it is about military maneuvering.

The area is very small. But this new ability to take off and land in Turkey will improve some angles and allow for better dexterity with the air strikes.

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Anti Semitism in Soccer
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking

The world of soccer is starting to take the scourge of anti- Semitism seriously.

The UEFA, which stands for the United European Football (Soccer) Association, has punished Croatia for anti-Semitic and racists acts.

A swastika was painted on the playing field of Croatia before a game against Italy.

The Football Association punished Croatia in several different ways:
# 1: Croatia was docked a point
# 2: the next two qualifying matches Croatia plays at home will be played without fans in an empty stadium
# 3: Croatia may not play in the city of Split
# 4: the Croatian team was fined 100,000 Euros ($110,000)

These penalties might seem small, but they actually touch the fans and the owners much more than the players. The players were not responsible for the swastika. The fans were responsible and the fans will not be able to watch their team play.

The penalties are a lesson for everyone. They were put in place to teach everyone that these kinds of expression cannot be tolerated in civilized society - and that includes football.

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Israel Mum On US Gifts After Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter departed Israel and traveled to Saudi Arabia.

We do not know what actually happened in Israel. People there have been uncharacteristically tight lipped about the meetings.

But we think that things went well.

What we do know is that Prime Minister Netanyahu told everyone not to talk about and not even entertain or discuss any list of potential gifts that the US might provide Israel in order to ease the pain of the Iranian deal.

The PM clearly feels that any discussion of US treats will hurt the Israeli argument in Congress. Netanyahu does not want Congressional leaders to think that Israel came to grips with the Iran deal so there is no problem if they support the deal.

In Saudi Arabia Carter is talking about Iranian aggression and the battle against ISIS. Also on the agenda is cyber terror.

Saudi Arabia and the US have many mutual interests. But do not for a minute think that Saudi Arabia trusts the United States.

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Hamas Shuts Its Electricity
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

In Gaza, yesterday, Hamas stopped producing electricity. This is the second time since March that Hamas stopped producing electricity.

Hamas blamed the stoppage on the PA. They said they stopped the electricity because of a fuel tax demanded of them by the Palestinian Authority.

The electrical plant in Gaza produces electricity from diesel. Most of the diesel comes from the PA. The PA has stopped providing the diesel because Hamas cannot pay for it. That fee, the cost of diesel, is what Hamas is calling the fuel tax.

In March when this happened Qatar coughed up $10 million. That money paid the back payment and covered the bill - until now. But now, in July, the Qatari money has dried up.

Even before this money crunch, electricity in Gaza was blacked out for 12 hours each day. Now there will probably be only 6 hours of electricity per day for Gazans.

Many people in Gaza use electric generators. They are the richest people in Gaza.

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Pollard May Be Part of the Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors abound -- one of them is that part of the so-called "carrot" Israel will be given as a result of the Iran deal is the release of Jonathan Pollard!!!!

The United States Department of Justice is saying that they will not object to the release of Pollard in November of this year, when he reaches his 30th year in prison.

While the potential release of Pollard makes sense, it in no way makes the Iran deal any less risky. It does, however, make the bitter pill a little easier to swallow.

For years the idea of releasing Pollard from the US prison where he has been serving time after being convicted of spying against the United States has been dangled in front of Israel. Each time, it turned out to be nothing more than a diplomatically orchestrated gimmick.

The US Administration knows that, from the point of view of Israel, this deal with Iran needs to be sweetened. Israel will certainly present a huge shopping list to the United States. Most of the items on that list will be on the security side.

Pollard is an entirely different matter. His release might make Israelis more comfortable with the deal. But if it does not happen, their frustration will reach new heights.

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How the White House Thinks About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

For several days now I have been wracking my head trying to understand how the White House could be so convinced that the deal with Iran was a good deal.

Everywhere I looked I saw flaws and problems.

But I think that I have now figured out what the Administration sees. I still vehemently disagree - but I understand their thought process.

Here is the White House point of view. They want to stop the production of a nuclear weapon - not permanently, just for the next 15 years.

In order to prevent a bomb from being dropped over the next 15 years the president and his staff put two essential items in the agreement.

The agreement reduces the number of centrifuges in Iran from 20,000
to 50 or 60 and all of these will be the old IR-1 type centrifuges.

The agreement also demands that Iran reduce the amount of uranium from 10 tons of low enriched uranium 3.5% to 300 kilos. This will make it hard to create a bomb because an effective nuclear bomb needs 90%-95% enriched uranium. About one ton of uranium is what you need to make a single weapon.

Not as important to the White House but also stipulated in the agreement is that the arms embargo stay in place for another 15 years.

Now, if Israel was to initiate a military strike they would only delay the capability of Iran to develop their bomb by 7 or 8 years, at most 10 years. The White House thinks that what they have accomplished is a much better deal.

The White House is also wishfully hoping that, within the next 15 years, there will be a regime change in Iran. And therefore, they believe that their plan is the best plan to keep the region safe.

Again, I disagree.

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Deal From The Iranian POV
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Let me tell you what Iranian leaders are saying about this historic agreement. Let me take you behind the beyond the celebrations in the streets.

Iranian president Rouhani said the following in a press conference: "We didn't ask for charity. We asked for fair, just, and win-win negotiations." He also said that sanctions never worked on Iran.
Consider that his hah-hah moment.

Then Rouhani used the moment to make an important point about international diplomacy by attacking Israel. He said: "Today the people of Gaza, Lebanon, Qods (Jerusalem) and West Bank are also happy because the endeavors of the Zionist regime were defeated."

He said: "Neighboring countries! Do not be deceived by the Zionist regime."

Iranian state news agencies reported that the deal would not touch any nuclear facilities and all of them are up and running - including research facilities. Additional reports said that R&D on centrifuge improvement would continue.

The reports said that all bans on dual purpose imports would be lifted. Machinery and technology that had industrial and nuclear purposes would now be permitted in. And sanctions would be lifted.

The reports also spoke of unfreezing Iranian funds. That is about $1.4 billion in found money for Iran.

All this will have a huge, positive, impact on Iran. This agreement catapults Iran into a leadership position in the region and in the world.

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Finally the Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The newly-signed nuclear agreement raises more questions than can possibly be answered. But we have got to start somewhere.

So, here is one of the biggest questions I have about the Iranian deal: Why are the Iranians dancing in the streets now that the agreement has been finalized?

The best reason I can give is that now that the stifling sanctions will be lifted, Iranians will have clear access to the West and billions of dollars of new income.

That is just one reason. The Iranians have many, many more reasons to feel elated. For example, by now we have all heard about the 24 day notice that Iran will get before inspections take place and we know that the Iranians have the option to reject the requests and instead have a hearing of the committee from the P5+1 and Iran.

But did you also know that:

Iran can have 300 kg of enriched uranium.

Iran need not shut down, seal or freeze any sites.

Iran can have 5400 centrifuges in Natanz and 1000 in Fordow.

Iran need not come clean about their past violations.

Iran does not need to stop its surface to air missile program.

Iran will continue its nuclear R&D.

Iran's heavy water plant in Arak will continue to operate.

In other words, not only did Iran get everything it wanted out of this agreement, but the West got almost nothing in the agreement.

And as for Israel, well, Israel needs to improve the relationship with Obama and his entire administration.

More crucial and to the point, Israel must improve their intel and their anti-missile program. Iran is sprinting towards outfitting themselves and their friends with nuclear potential. And we all know where they will aim during target practice.

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Assad and Hezbollah Take Momentum Away from ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The tide is once again shifting in Syria. The position of power is once again firmly in the hands of Assad and Hezbollah.

A few weeks ago we noted that ISIS had made serious advances in Syria, but in a pretty quick turnabout, Assad and Hezbollah successfully repelled ISIS and al Qaeda and they are now in control of nearly every large city and every major highway in the country.
It was reported today that two leaders of ISIS were killed by an air attack in Syria.

In addition, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah went on Youtube and shouted that ISIS has a choice - leave Syria or be killed in Syria.

Nasrallah and Hezbollah are taking advantage of the momentum.

There is no doubt that Hezbollah and Assad forces will search out and seek revenge on ISIS and al Qaeda fighters. No prisoners will be taken. Anyone found hiding or defeated in battle will be butchered and paraded as examples of what happens to those who dare to cross President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah cannot quite do it, but they will try to match the brutality of ISIS. They must publicly display acts of brutality in order to regain the sense of honor they lost over the past year as ISIS inspired fear crept into the hearts of many local Syrians.

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Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It seems as if some time today, Monday, there will be an announcement out of Vienna celebrating the signing of a deal with Iran.

On Sunday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that --- "The deal is within reach today ... but some issues remain that need to be resolved by foreign ministers."

The Europeans are saying that a deal will certainly be announced on Monday, the Americans are a bit more cautious. The Americans say they are hopeful.

Whatever the deal actually is, whenever the announcement is made, we will have to look over the deal very carefully. What is written down is not always what was verbally stated.

The last agreement for the temporary agreement that was presented in March was so ambiguous it was impossible to understand. For the Iranians, that was the point.

After the deal gets signed we will look it over. Then comes the insight.

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Iran's Supreme Leader On the US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Supreme Leader was speaking to a student group yesterday. A student asked him what would happen to the battle against global arrogance if they sign an agreement with the United States.

The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei responded by explaining that the battle against global arrogance cannot be interrupted and it must continue.

Khamenei said "Fighting global arrogance is the core of our revolution and we cannot put it on hold. Get ready to continue your fight against the global arrogance."

Simply and clearly put the Iranian leader said:
"The US is the true embodiment of the global arrogance."

This is how Iranian leadership views the United States.

There is no other way to interpret the Iranian message.

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Pope Calls it a Genocide
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Pope Francis is in Boliva. In a speech he delivered while there the pope spoke about a genocide being perpetrated against Christians in the Middle East.

He has been silent on this matter until now.
The Pope said: "Today we are dismayed to see how in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world many of our brothers and sisters are persecuted, tortured and killed for their faith in Jesus."

"In this third world war, waged piecemeal, which we are now experiencing, a form of genocide is taking place, and it must end."

There is no doubt that, throughout the Middle East, ISIS and al Qaeda as well as many other Islamic groups are targeting Christians and Christian sites.

There was a fear that speaking up would put people and property at risk. Actually, the Vatican had been trying to stem the tide of hatred by befriending non-friendly groups hoping that ultimately, everyone could live together in peace.

That plan has not been working out.

The new Vatican policy: Speak up, speak out and stop the genocide of Christians in the Middle East at the hands o Muslims.

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2 Israelis in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The gag order was lifted yesterday. Now we know that two Israelis are in Gaza. One, an Ethiopian, has been there since September, the other, a Bedouin, since April.

Hamas admits to having the Bedouin, but says it knows about - but does not have, the Ethiopian. This sounds like the truth. And that is not good news.

During the operation against Gaza last summer, one of the most important objectives from the Hamas point of view was to capture an Israeli soldier - alive. The Ethiopian could not be an Israeli soldier, he is a learning disabled adult and that becomes immediately recognizable to anyone who meets him.

His name is Avraham Mangisto and he was walking on the beach and crossed the border into Gaza. When soldiers saw him they shouted, to no avail to get his attention, a helicopter was even dispatched to find him. The soldiers saw him walk up to a group of Gaza fisherman and that was the last time he was seen by Israelis.

If Islamic Jihad or ISIS took him, then the situation is very grim. If any other Islamic group has him the scenario is even worse.

The reason the entire situation was not made public before this was to make certain that Hamas, or other terrorists, did not turn it into an international bargaining war. Hamas wants the release of prisoners in Israeli jails. Because Israel was not even acknowledging the situation, there was the opportunity to try to locate the captors through back channels.

Even members of the Israeli security cabinet were in the dark about the situation. They found out about it only from online coverage which was first released on YNET.

Now it seems that all informal avenues have been exhausted. Now Israel is ready to admit that the situation is grave, very grave.

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Hamas Has Rebuilt & ISIS in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It has been a year since last summer's conflict between Israel and Gaza.

According to sources in Israel's southern command, Israel "is in a race against Hamas {over} who will learn the lessons of Protective Edge faster."

That is scary. The source told YNET that Hamas has nearly re-attained the level and capacity they were at pre-Operation Preventive Edge. That means that within the year Hamas has restored and rebuilt their arms and rocket capability.

"Hamas is getting closer to finishing restoring its stock of mortar shells and short-range rockets ... They don't yet have the amount of medium and long-range rockets (that can reach Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and further north) it had. Hamas will not give up the ability to fire rockets deep into Israel in the next war, because to them, a routine of sirens and emergency situation in Tel Aviv is an achievement."

Now there is another factor operating in Gaza -- ISIS.

Every success ISIS has whether it be in the region, anywhere in the Middle East, or in Europe, it magnifies their cause and draws more recruits.

Sources estimate that there are 1,000 ISIS members. That is huge - especially because ISIS is about to make a play for more recruits and to oust Hamas from leadership in Gaza.

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US - Only 60 Syrians Trained So Far
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the brilliant plan that the United States hatched to train Syrian fighters to battle ISIS and al Qaeda?

The original plan was to train 5,400 Syrian fighters every year.

These fighters were to be the future of Syria. First, they were going to defeat ISIS and al Qaeda and then they would take over Syria and oust Assad. That was the plan.

Well, so far, only 60 Syrians have been trained. That's right - 60. I did not forget to put the zeroes on.

We know this because it is the testimony that US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter gave before Congress yesterday. Carter says, and rightly so, that the difficulty is vetting the fighting to make certain that they are not the enemy. If they made a mistake in choosing fighters, the US would be training and arming people who, in the end, would be fighting for the other side.

The real problem is that most people fighting in Syria are the enemy.

Very few Syrians can pass the vetting process. Not because it is so rigorous --- but because most people were at one time or are currently affiliated either with ISIS, al Qaeda or Assad.

In his prepared remarks to Congress the secretary of defense explained that the United States is trying to streamline the program and to enable the vetting process to find and train more appropriate recruits.

Carter put it this way: "We are also refining our curriculum, expanding our outreach to the moderate opposition, and incorporating lessons learned from the first training class."

Suffice it to say the United States needs another program. This one is not going anywhere.

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ISIS Smuggling Members into Europe
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Europe may be slowly waking up.

The European Union prosecutor held a special press conference to inform journalists that ISIS is using ships not only to smuggle people but also to secretly smuggle ISIS members into Europe.

Journalists were also told that ISIS is earning money smuggling people.

ISIS is smuggling illegals across the Mediterranean into Europe.

Obviously, the ISIS members are entering Europe to organize, raise money and recruit. They are also there to motivate and plan attacks.

Eurojust is an EU agency that tries to coordinate with EU members on issues of terror, cyber crime and illegal immigration. According to the Associated Press, the director of Eurojust, Michele Coninsx, has information about ISIS and their smuggling operation. She did not want to reveal too much information, but made it perfectly clear that it is happening.

I found it interesting that, according to the coverage, EU leadership did not want to venture a hypothesis as to why ISIS was smuggling people into Europe.

The answer should be clear. ISIS wants to attack Europe!

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Jordan Finds Terror Cell
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Newspapers in Jordan today are reporting that a major terror attack was averted. The authorities arrested a man with Iraqi Norwegian citizenship who was in possession of 45 kg, equivalent to 100 pounds, of explosives.

The media says that this attack would have been the worst terror attack in a decade.

The first judicial hearing for the suspect will take place in Jordanian security court on Monday.

The terrorist is believed to belong to a group called Bayt ul Maqdis. This is a common name for many terror groups - but all of the groups with this name are not connected to each other.
Bayt al Maqdis is another Arabic name for Jerusalem.

The discovery of this group is very important - and not just because this discovery saved lives. Finding this man and his group will lead authorities on a path to discovery of other terror cells and of arms and of explosive suppliers.

This is a big step in the fight against ISSI and other groups taking hold in Jordan and in the region.

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ISIS Plots to Take Over Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has announced that they are plotting to remove Hamas from power in Gaza.

ISIS posted a video on Youtube of a masked man addressing the "Tyrants of Hamas" i.e. Hamas, saying:

"We will uproot the state of the Jews (Israel) and you and Fatah, and all of the secularists are nothing and you will be over-run by our creeping multitudes."

He continued -- "The rule of sharia (Islamic law) will be implemented in Gaza, in spite of you. We swear that what is happening in the Levant today, and in particular the Yarmouk camp, will happen in Gaza,"

The speaker said that after all this time Hamas has not succeeded in applying any Islamic law in Gaza and now Hamas are clamping down on groups attacking Israel. In the eyes of ISIS, that is definitely not a good thing to be doing.

ISIS wants to topple Hamas because, in their eyes, Hamas is simply too liberal.

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ISIS 1 Year Later
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It has been exactly one year since ISIS proclaimed themselves a state.

The US Department of Defense announced that ISIS is a formidable force. They say that despite the fact that ISIS has lost 25% of the land that was under their control at the heyday of their rise to power.

Finally, the Department of Defense is realizing that ISIS is no longer a junior varsity player. Now the DOD must devise a serious strategy that will put more pressure on ISIS and, eventually, eradicate them entirely.
ISIS has a plan.

Now the United States needs a plan, too.

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Talks Have Been Extended!
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I told you so. And it is official.

The talks with Iran have been extended beyond the June 30 deadline. Of course they were.

Here is the official quote: "Since a lot of work remains to be done, delegations will stay in Vienna after 10 Tir (which is June 30) to continue negotiations to achieve a good overall agreement."

Do not hold your breath. The leader of the Iranian delegation is now back in Teheran getting guidance on how to move ahead. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who heads the delegation needs to get the parameters and the limits of what compromises Iran can make.

Rest assured - Iran will want much more than what the P5+1 is willing to give. That bone of contention will be understood in completely opposite ways by Iran on the one hand and Western negotiators on the other.

Stay tuned, there is definitely more to come.

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Deadline Just Hours Away
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The deadline is June 30th. However you count it, it is just a few hours away.

There have been reports of major movement - reports that the sides might be moving closer and closer to a deal.

But will there be a real deal with Iran? Can there ever be?

I doubt it.

Even if an agreement was signed it would not be a deal.

The real issue is how close everyone comes in their demands - and if that will constitute a deal, or, if there will be an deadline extension to the end of August.

My bet is that there will be an extension.

Even if there is an agreement just like there was in April it will require many more months of ironing out the details. That is not a real deal.

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Anotehr Flotilla Sailing to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Another flotilla set sail for Gaza yesterday.

The flotilla is a symbolic gesture. There are 70 people, including crew, aboard the ship which launched from Crete en route to Gaza.
The reason given for sending out the ship is that it is carrying medical supplies for needy hospitals in Gaza.

Also on board is an Arab member of the Israeli Knesset. His name is Basel Ghattas and he is a representative of the Joint Arab List. The president of Tunisia was on board when it departed Crete. Sounds strange considering that an ISIS terror attack just took place in Tunisia. Terrorists struck a beach hotel at a tourist resort killing at least 38 people and wounding 26.

People affiliated with the flotilla said that the night before they set sail, someone tried to sabotage the ship - as has been done with other flotillas. Someone swam under the boat and tied up the propellers. The organizers detected the problem and freed the propellers.

In 2011 a very similar attack took place and the sabotage postponed the departure of the ship. As a result fewer ships joined the flotilla.

Today there is just one. This flotilla is begging for publicity.

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Gaza Sent A Drone to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a drone took off from Gaza and flew into Israel.

The Israelis report that the drone was being watched every moment - even before it was launched. The Israeli Air Force was scrambling to destroy the drone if necessary.

The drone crossed into Israeli territory and then fell to the ground. The army picked up the drone and they are examining and studying it. Israel is asserting that at no time was the drone a threat.

There are two types of drones. One is for intelligence and spying and the other is for attack. They are both remote control operated and they both have cameras that send back important reconnaissance pictures to be studied.

There have been serious rumors that Hamas was given drones by Iran. And Hamas has repeatedly said that they do have drone technology and the ability to hit Israel with drones.

Israel is not yet releasing information on the nature or the make of the drones. But no one can deny that this incident was an important game changer. Drones give Hamas eyes in places they never could see before.

That is dangerous.

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US Will Not Prosecute Families Who Pay Ransom For Loved Ones
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Today the United States is publicly releasing a broad review of their policy on hostages.

The review was ordered by the president.

As a result of the review findings, a new policy regarding hostages will be put in place.

The request for review came about after the recent spate of kidnappings and beheadings of American citizens by ISIS.

Family members of the hostages were threatened by US officials. They were told that if the family paid ransoms, they would be prosecuted for helping and providing money to terrorists.

This was devastating to the families. And it became even more painful when it was clear that European hostages whose ransoms were paid to ISIS by their family and friends - were indeed released and went free.

The report does not change the law which stands as it always did. It does, however, say that the White House will make certain that the Department of Justice knows not to prosecute family members if the situation should once again become a reality.

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Egypt Digging a Moat Around Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

For Egypt, Hamas is a significant threat. Not surprisingly, the Egyptians are trying to block all smuggling tunnels into and out of Gaza.

Over the past year hundreds of Egyptian soldiers, police and civilians have been killed by terrorists who have received material aid from Gaza. Hundreds.

Egypt has shut the border between their country and Gaza. They also, recently, doubled the width of the buffer zone of that border extending it to 1 kilometer which is .62 miles. In doing so they uprooted trees and destroyed homes.

Anything that was within the swath of land that was destined to be the buffer zone was razed in order to create a safer and more defensible border.

Now the Egyptians are digging a security ditch 23 yards deep and 11 yards wide.

These efforts are designed to make it much more difficult to tunnel into Gaza. Tunnel builders must now dig deeper and dig longer. Now digging tunnels is more expensive, more dangerous, and much more time consuming.

Most important of all is that, now, it is much easier for Egypt to detect the digging.

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Uptick in Terror-- Here's Why
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There has been an uptick in terror against Israelis. There have been stabbings and car attacks.

There are several important reasons for this surge in terror attacks.
The most significant reason is one of inspiration.

This is the month of Ramadan. It is a time for sermons and dynamic speeches in mosques and on TV and radio. During their sermons Imams call on Muslims to act.

The action that inspiration stimulates is terror.

The next most significant reason is the ISIS / al Qaeda influence.
Muslims are inspired to imitate the actions of extremist groups.
ISIS and al Qaeda movements operating all around the world, but especially from Syrian and Iraq, set the tone for would be followers and supporters.

Your average Muslim is not capable of perpetrating a massive terror attack, but is perfectly capable of carrying out a stabbing or initiating a car attack.

There is no easy way to counter these attacks or to stem the rise of violence and acts of terror.

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Rescue History from ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Great Britain has put together a group of rescues archeologists to go and save historical sites threatened by ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

Right now only England is funding the project, but they are convening a summit meeting in hopes of raising more monies to save these priceless and unique historical treasures.

ISIS does two things to the sites.

# 1: ISIS publicly destroys the sites. ISIS films and posts on line the actual destruction of the sites. In their minds, they are destroying paganism. They broadcast to all their followers how Islam has destroyed the pagan culture of Rome and Greece et al. ISIS says that the sites "promote idolatry."

# 2: ISIS raids the sites for artifacts that can be sold. The sales amount to tens of millions of dollars annually, all profit going into their coffers. For ISIS, the sale of historical artifacts is almost as lucrative an industry as the sale of oil.

This new group of rescue archeologists will hopefully secure the sites, reconstruct the destroyed elements and document the current state of affairs for posterity. It is a daunting but very worthwhile endeavor.

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Iran Defeats US in Volleyball
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The FIVB, which is the International Federation of Volley, is holding a competition in Tehran, Iran.

On Friday Iran defeated the United States in three sets. The scores were 25-19, 29-27 and 25-20.

The US and Iran are set to face off again on Sunday.

Participation in this competition demonstrates a significant change in US policy. It signals the thawing of relations and the end of sanctions. One of the most obvious and easy to comply with dimensions of sanctions is involvement - or absence thereof - in international sports.

In this case not only Is Iran involved, they are hosting and the US is participating in the volley championship in Teheran much as they would were it to be held almost everywhere else in the world.

I am not shocked by this - actually it was to be expected. The only unrealized issue is: what will this lead to.

The obvious answer is normalization of diplomatic relations- bringing Iran in out of the doghouse. This is one of the objectives of international sports. The idea is that conflicts are about politics and leaders while sports are about people.

Athletes are supposed to put politics aside and deal only with the sport and the competition. Sometimes that is harder to do than at other times. This is one of those other times.

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Palestinians May Rescind Israel Recognition
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat presented a 56 page report outlining what he considers essential steps to be taken regarding Palestinian relations with Israel.

The report is really the Palestinian response on the status of non-negotiations with Israel and their lack of progress in finalizing
the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

Erekat, always a wily character and shrewd thinker, suggests that the Palestinian Authority rescind its recognition of Israel. Yasser Arafat recognized Israel in 1988. The rescinding, or taking back, of this recognition would be a tool to force Israel into concessions.
Erekat also suggests bringing Gazan Islamic groups, like Hamas and Islamic Jihad and others, into the PLO executive committee.

These moves are more than symbolic. Erekat hopes that they will unify Palestinian leadership. If enacted, the Erekat plan will give Palestinians leverage over Israelis in the international arena and in bi-lateral, face-to-face and tri-lateral talks.

But it will fail.
Palestinian unity is a myth.

Even if the Palestinians withdrew their recognition of Israel it would mean nothing. It would appear to be a blank gesture of weakness - and that is exactly the opposite of the position Palestinians want to convey.

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Ramadan Starts Today
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

For most of the 1.5 billion Muslims in the world, today begins the month long fast of Ramadan. From dusk to dawn Muslims cannot eat or drink. It is a period introspection.

Ramadan is one of the five pillars of Islam.

Within Islamic tradition this is the month during which the original revelation of Mohamed took place. It is a month where Muslims try to do the right thing - especially in interpersonal interactions and speech.

According to some media reports crime rates drop significantly in Muslim countries during Ramadan as people attempt to mend their ways. Other media outlets report the opposite - a serious increase in crime. Criminals know that families are out celebrating and homes are empty.

A lot of interesting things happen during the month of Ramadan. Who knows what will happen this year.

For some, Ramadan is a call to peace. For others, Ramadan is a call to arms.

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Syrians Are Running For Refuge in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has declared the entire region of the Golan Height where it abuts Syria a closed military zone.

There are two reasons for the closure.

# 1: In the aftermath of the increased number of massacres of Druze in Syria, their family and outside sympathizers have organized protests on the Israeli side of the border in the hope of influencing Israel to intervene stop the massacres in Syria.
The closure will keep people safely away from a hot border. The protesters are targets for al Qaeda, al Nusra and ISIS rebels.

# 2: Israel is expecting a massive exodus of Druze and other Syrians as the massacres continue. When that happens the area must be free of civilians in order to properly facilitate the escape of these Syrians seeking refuge and safety in Israel.

I know - it sounds preposterous. But yes, thousands of Syrians have already sought safety in Israel. More are on the way.

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Saudi - Iran Confict at the OIC
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Today, Saudi Arabia is hosting the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). And there are going to be fireworks.

The OIC is the umbrella group of 57 Islamic states that was founded in 1969. It was created in the aftermath of the Six Day War when it became obvious that the Islamic world was leaderless and directionless.

Iran is attending the meeting and the Iranians want to discuss Yemen. Saudi Arabia is hosting and they want to discuss Yemen. Iran is on the opposite side of Saudi Arabia when it comes to Yemen.

For the past three months Yemen has been in the thralls of a civil war and Iran has been supporting the Houthi tribe. The Houthi are Shiites and they are trying to take over Yemen. Saudi Arabia is supporting the regime which is Sunni.

Bringing in the 55 others countries will not resolve this issue.

Iran is making a tactical mistake. Saudi Arabia has more clout in the OIC than they do. Most countries will not get involved in this local issue except to say resolve it on your own and do it ASAP.

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Amazon Was Selling ISIS Magazine
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Amazon had a very embarrassing moment last week. They were selling ISIS's propaganda magazine for $12 a pop.

How would they know. The magazine is a glossy production called Dabiq and this was its 9the issue. It is produced in 5 different languages: English, German French, Spanish and Arabic.

As soon as Amazon found out, they pulled the product.

Dabiq is a town in Syria. It is the equivalent to the city of Megido. It is where the cataclysm will take place.

But, and this is the most interesting part, ISIS did not need Amazon in order to reach thousands and thousands of magazine buyers. Dabiq is an online publication. Amazon just made it easier. ISIS is selling the magazine throughout the web.

This latest issue of Dabiq is dedicated to explaining why and how young women become sex slaves. There are also two very long articles explaining ISIS. The point is that these women would not be sex slaves if only they converted and accepted the ISIS point of view and stance on Islam.

The articles are written by women. That is part of the ISIS propaganda machine. ISIS is justifying the denigration of women and hoping to recruit women, all at the same time.


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Russia Says - Iran Talks Are Dead
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

TASS, the Russia news agency, was the first to report that the current talks with Iran taking place in Vienna are at a standstill. TASS was quoting a Russian diplomatic source inside he negotiations.

It should not surprise any of us. Iran really does not want this kind of an agreement. They want an agreement on their terms only.

The deadline will most certainly be extended. I have been predicting that ever since the April 2 framework agreement was signed.

Just because some nations think there there is a framework agreement does not mean Iran thinks that there is a framework agreement.

The sides are at odds.

Now - an agreement might still emerge. But if an agreement is signed it most certainly will be one which favors Iran and its nuclear program.

Why? Because Iran knows that the United States really wants an agreement. And Iran knows that they have the leverage in these negotiations.

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Iran Says NO!
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It is now mid-June and only a few days remain before the deadline of the nuclear deal with Iran.

The negotiations are beginning.

Paragraph 3:1of the temporary agreement speaks about Iran scaling down their nuclear operations and granting unfettered access to nuclear facilities. It also speaks about giving early notification about new nuclear sites.

Here is the Iranian response to Paragraph 3:1:

Chief Iranian Negotiator Reza Najafi told reporters in a press conference that -- "These are the issues still under discussion and I believe we should wait to see the final text... and before that, we cannot prejudge anything."

In other words: NO!

In the world of Iranian diplomacy and negotiations, in the world that only they inhabit, the interim temporary agreement is not applicable. It was merely a suggestion and it is a suggestion whose principles they do not agree with and did not agree to.

The deal is no deal and never was a deal.

For the United States unfettered access to Iranian nuclear activities and the scaling down of those activities were to be essential component of any agreement.

But now, who knows? The United States is so worried about placating Iran we have no idea what they will agree to or sign on for.


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Spyware Uncovered At the Nuke Summit
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Wall Street Journal ran a piece yesterday that has set off a maelstrom.

The paper reports that a computer virus infected five hotels in Lausanne, Switzerland. Lausanne is where the nuclear talks with Iran have been taking place and where they will continue to take place.
The WSJ's source is Kaspersky, one of the world's biggest antivirus companies. Kaspersky found out about the virus because they themselves were infected.

This virus, called Duqu 2.0, does no damage. It is an advanced version of the Duqu virus of 2011which attacked Iran and it is very similar to the Stuxent virus of 2009-2010. The original Stuxnet successfully destroyed thousands of Iranian nuclear centrifuges.

The virus uses the computer as a relay. It can watch and hear everything going on in the room and everything that is on the computer can be seen and sent to its own home base. The computer's activation light for the microphone and for the camera are disabled by Duqu. The virus takes over the entire computer. There are only a few companies and governments that have the tools to even detect this virus.

If the code is written well, no one can ever even know that the spyware is there.

Both the Wall Street Journal and Kaspersky imply that Israel is behind the spying.

In their report, Kaspersky referred to Duqu 2.0 as Duqu Bet. Bet is the second letter of the Hebrew language with the numerical value of 2. They are clearly hinting that Israel is behind the hack. But there is no tangible evidence.

One thing is for certain, this is not the work of a lone hacker or talented high school kid. This attack bears all the markings of a highly complex worm that cannot be found. This kind of computer spyware is created by countries - they are called APTs or Advanced Persistent Threats. They are the most sophisticated and complicated and stealth of all the computer threats out there.

When they are discovered, APTs have already done their harm. And most of the time, most of them go undetected. They do their job and then they go dormant. Kaput. All done. Good bye. Until next time.

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Cairo Summons US Ambassador
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The tables have been turned.

Egyptian officials summoned US Ambassador Steven Beecroft to Cairo yesterday. Egypt summoned the US ambassador to discuss their displeasure over the fact that a delegation from the Muslim
Brotherhood is in Washington, DC on a mission to determine if they will set down roots in the US capital.

Egypt is not merely displeased. Egypt is livid.

According to the Reuters report the Muslim Brotherhood delegation is not meeting with US officials. The Egyptians, however, take exception to the very presence of the Brotherhood in the US capital.

According to the Egyptians, the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist group and is dedicated to the destruction of Egyptian society. The Brotherhood wants to establish a caliphate, a Muslim state, in Egypt.

Over the past year the Muslim Brotherhood has been responsible for hundreds of terror attacks in Egypt - including attacks against military bases, soldiers, civilians and even natural gas lines.

The United States defended the Muslim Brotherhood when their representative, Morsi, was elected president and then again when he was ousted from office last year. The US slowly came around to recognizing the current leadership and to the realization that the Muslim Brotherhood was threatening the entire region.

Or so we thought. This latest move tells us that the United States may not have actually internalized the message.

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Supreme Court Says Jerusalem is Disputed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The US Supreme Court 6-3 ruling striking down Congresses' law about
Jerusalem is a damning decision.

Here's why:

The Supreme Court is now saying that the President is THE lone voice in determining US foreign policy. This is not just about filling in a small box titled Place of Birth on the US passport. The ramifications are tremendous.

This decision by the Supreme Court effectively diplomatically minimizes Israel around the world. The decision, in effect, tells Israel that they cannot select their own capital. They are not the masters of their own capital - the president of the United Sates is.

This ruling by the US Supreme Court leaves the question of the status of Jerusalem up for negotiation. The greater problem is that in some circle the very existence of Israel - not just of Israel's capital city - is being disputed. This decision gives credence to that POV.

The Supreme Court should never have ruled on this issue.


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Next Week Iran to Ship Oil to Russia
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

This week Iran will start exporting 500,000 barrels of oil per day to Russia.

The delivery is part of the "oil for goods deal" that Iran and Russia have been speaking about since April. For a long time, it was just talk. Now it is becoming a reality.

Iran will provide the oil and, in turn, Russia will give Iran food and cash. With the cash, Iran is supposed to buy iron and other essential goods.

The Iranian oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, was quoted in FARS, one of the official news outlets of the Islamic Republic, talking about the deal. The official announcement was made in Teheran as the minister returned from the latest OPEC meeting in Vienna. He made it clear when he said "Russia will begin oil imports from Iran this week."

"We agreed with (Russian Energy Minister) Alexander Novak in Vienna that Russia will buy less than 500,000 bpd from Iran in exchange for cash, and Iran will use this cash to buy Russian goods such as steel, wheat and oil products from Russia."

This effectively ends the sanctions against Iran. Russia is only the first among nations to begin trading with Iran again. The list will not be a short one.

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Cyprus Arrests 2 Hezbollah Bombers
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Since ancient times Cyprus has been used as a conduit, a place to group and re-group. So, too, today - and not always for the most up and up and peace loving groups.

Over the past week Cyrus has arrested 2 people on charges of having the chemical materials used to make explosives.

Last week a 26 year old Canadian / Lebanese man was arrested.
Yesterday a 62 year old Cypriot from Nicosia was arrested. The men were in possession of 5 tons of chemicals and fertilizers. The most dangerous chemical they had was ammonium nitrate which is extremely
volatile and explosive.

Cyprus authorities were tipped off by Israeli intelligence which was tailing and monitoring these two people as well as several others. After the chemicals were located, local authorities arrested the terrorists.

These men are part of a Hezbollah web. I am confident that the other members of their team will also be found out and arrested. They were procuring, securing and transferring supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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French City Names Street After Arafat
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It was bound to happen in France. It was only a matter of time.

The southern coastal city of La Seyne-sur-Mer is naming a street after Yasser Arafat, the notorious founder of the PLO, the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Arafat, a 1994 recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize along with Israeli Prime Minister Ytizhak Rabin, died in France in 2004.

La Seyne-sur-Mer is a small city of about 57,000 people. It is famous for being home to one of the finest ship building yards in the world and certainly in Europe.

The mayor, Marc Vuillemot, said that he does not understand the problem. He explains that Yitzhak Rabin has a street named after him in the very same quarter. In his own words: "My understanding is that the two men received the Nobel Peace Prize together! I am not going to be the decider of who was the greater person."

The logic is wrong. Even if, in the end, the Nobel committee saw Arafat as worthy of the prize, he was still a mass murderer of Jews and Israelis.

In a strange twist of history... maybe even an ironic twist ... the Israeli attack on the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osarik that took place June 7, 1984 was an attack on a reactor that was manufactured and assembled by in La Seyne-sur- Mer.

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Hamas Does Not Take Responsibility for the Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Gaza terrorists have been lofting rockets into Israel.

It does not make a difference which specific group is actually responsible for the rockets - Hamas is in charge of Gaza, they are the address. Whatever comes out of Gaza, whoever sends it out of Gaza, the ruling force is still responsible. And that force is Hamas.

After the rockets were launched, Israel responded by conducting air strikes against the launch pads.

And then Hamas said that the Israeli response to the rockets was a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Hamas official Ismail Radwan said on Thursday that the Israeli aerial strikes against Gaza in response to rocket fire was "a violation of the ceasefire terms, and the occupation bears responsibility for it."

Well, maybe. But if the Israeli response was a violation of the ceasefire, what would you call the original rockets that were fired into Israel.

Would you call those a gesture of peace?

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ISIS - Al Qaeda Fighitng in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera in Arabic ran a very unusual interview with Abu Mohammed al Golani, the head of al Nusra, the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.

In the interview al Golani made it crystal clear that ISIS and al Qaeda are fighting each other and he sees no chance of rapprochement in the near future.

"There is no solution between us and them in the meantime, or in the foreseeable future. We hope they repent to God and return to their senses ... if not then there is nothing but fighting between us."

Imagine that. Al Qaeda is saying to ISIS that they must return to their senses and repent. Even al Qaeda thinks that ISIS has gone too far.

In the course of the interview al Golani also divulged that 30% of al Nusra fighters are foreigners and that some even come from the United States of America.

Al Qaeda / Al Nusra is seen as the more moderate arm of Islamic extremism. Many, many, people are joining ISIS specifically because they are so ruthless --- even more ruthless than al Qaeda.

What a world!

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ISIS Hamas Conflict in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Hamas and ISIS in Gaza continue to heat up For a year Hamas has maintained that there is no ISIS presence in Gaza and then, yesterday, Hamas killed the 27 year old leader of ISIS in Gaza. His name is Younis al Honnor.

Al Honnor was buried in black shrouds emblazoned with ISIS slogans. Banners adorned the street proclaiming his martyrdom and allegiance to ISIS.


According to the Hamas Ministry of the Interior, Hamas forces came to his house and a firefight broke out. The forces came because Honnor was stockpiling illegal weapons.
Honnor was killed in the firefight. He had booby-trapped the house. According to Hamas reports "explosive belts, explosive devices and rifle-propelled grenades were found inside."

The PA in Ramallah said that Hamas was wrong to have murdered Honnor. They said Hamas should have arrested him and tried him. In a statement published by WAFA, the official Palestinian news agency, the Palestinian cabinet said: "Hamas must respect the law and civil rights."

The statement continued: "It must not mess with the souls of people. It must cease abolishing security and order and stop trespassing on the authorities of the government and the judiciary."

Terrible tensions are emerging in Gaza. Hamas, ISIS and several other smaller radical Islamic groups are gunning for each other. In Gaza, that means literally as well as figuratively.

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ISIS Delivers Ultimatum to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

June 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Supporters of ISIS in Gaza have sent a message to Hamas leaders and to ISIS followers. The message is: Stop the crackdown in the next 48 hours - or else.

Hamas has been cracking down on all groups that have been firing or are planning on firing, rockets into Israel.

All Islamic radical groups in Gaza have been told not to agitate. And Hamas has gone so far as to arrest gangs who have violated the cease fire with Israel.

Just to rub Hamas' nose in it, ISIS also claimed responsibility for the rockets that struck Israel last week.

Who knows what will happen, but one thing is for certain - ISIS is active in Gaza and they are itching to get into more and more conflict with Hamas.

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Egypt Fighting Radical Islam
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A gas pipeline transporting natural was blown up in the Northern Sinai area of al Arish.

The blowing up pipelines has been a regular tool of the trade for terrorists over the past year. One specific Islamic terror group called Ansar Beit al Maqdis has become very effective at blowing up these pipelines.

Ansar Beit al Maqdis recently pledged their allegiance to ISIS. They regularly attack Egyptian forces and strike at pipelines delivering natural gas throughout the Sinai and at pipelines transferring natural gas to Jordan.

According to reports coming out of Egypt this latest pipeline to be blown up supplied gas that powered the electrical power station in al Arish and distributed energy to the homes and businesses there.

Egypt knows that the biggest threat the country currently confronts is the threat from radical Islam. The Egyptians are now involved in a full force attempt to crack down and put radical Islam back into the bottle.

I do not know if they will succeed. If they do, others should learn from their example so that they, too, can learn how to contain and control radical Islam.

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Russians Pulling Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 31, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The popular Arabic paper published in London, Asharq al Aswat, is reporting that Russia is pulling its support from President Assad of Syria.

The paper sites a series of sources saying that 66 Russian have been flown out of Latakiah airport, bound for Moscow. They are reporting that the Russian Embassy now has far fewer staff and that Russian experts are no longer in the Syrian war room.

This move comes just as the US and Russia are more involved in talks about the future of Syria. The pull out by Russia means that the Syrian regime will have to work much harder to stay in place.

When you combine the gains made by ISIS and the rebels, you see that they are now in control of more than half of the provinces in Syria.
Assad only controls 8% of the oil resources in Syria. ISIS controls 80% and the rebels control 12%. That leaves Assad very short on cash - the Russian were helping the president support the battle.

With the handful of losses the Assad regime has suffered over the past week, the Russians pulling support may make it impossible for him to recover and swing the pendulum back in his direction.

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FIFA - Israel & The Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday FIFA voted to continue its leadership under Stepp Blatter.

FIFA officials have much on their minds these days. In addition to all the headline grabbing news, the Palestinians had a proposal on the table to expel Israel from FIFA. At the last minute the proposal was withdrawn.

The real story behind the withdrawal is that no country has been expelled from FIFA since the 1970's when South Africa was removed. They have since rejoined.

Of all the mass murders in the world perpetrated by countries -- Israel is the only country that was to be called out on the table by FIFA.

The head of the Palestinian Football Association, former PA strong arm security director Jabril Rajoub, pulled the proposal because numerous African countries told him they do not want to set the precedent of disciplining a nation.

Rajoub and the Palestinians use sports as a political weapon.
Palestinian Media Watch has produced a report documenting how the Palestinians glorify terror in sport by naming tournaments and camps and stadiums after terrorists.

There is, for example, a table tennis tournament named after Dalal Mughrabi who murdered 38 Israelis, including 13 children, and wounded 71 in 1978 on Israel's coastal road.

A chess championship is named after Marwan Zalum responsible for the murder of a 10 month old Israeli infant girl named Shalhevet Paz.
The child was in her stroller when the terrorist shot her in the head. AP reported the tragic terror attack as "Jewish Toddler Dies in West Bank." The Voice of Palestine reported that the sniper and shooting was a lie and that the girl was murdered by her mother.

Soccer stadium and rallies are named after Abu Jihad, a terrorist responsible for over 120 murders.

When the Peres Center for Peace organized a soccer game between Israeli and Palestinians children, Rajoub called it a crime against humanity. And any Palestinian who attempts to play for an Israeli soccer team is threatened by the PA and removed from the national Palestinian team.

This behavior by Palestinians is an affront to the spirit and nature of sports. Shame on them. Dropping the case against Israel is not enough - the world should call the Palestinians to task.

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Conflict btw ISIS and Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Iraqi city of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, fell to ISIS. So did the rest of the Anbar province. This week Iraq announced that they are fighting to retake the province, which is home to 2 million people and the capital, home to 500,000 Iraqis.

Shiite militias have been brought in to fight ISIS - and the Iranians have a stake in this operation.

Now ISIS is responding.

ISIS sent the Blind Sheik to Ramadi. His real name is Ali Atiya al Joubari aka Abu Asim, but he is most well known as the Blind Sheik of ISIS. He is their # 2 leader on all religious issues and he is # 5 in the overall ISIS pecking order.

The Blind Sheik arrived in Anbar Province with his security entourage so, naturally, people paid attention. One arm, his head and his face were totally covered. The Sheik spoke after evening prayers.

The reason for this visit was to inspire locals in Ramadi to accept ISIS. The locals now side with the Iraqi forces. The Blind Sheik was supposed to convince them to acquiesce and submit to ISIS authority.

Anbar is the largest province in Iraq, it is equal in size to all the other provinces combined. Ramadi is a mere 80 miles from Baghdad.

Both ISIS and the Iraqis know how crucially important this battle for Ramadi and Anbar is.

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Al Qaeda Says They are Defeating Assad
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Abu Muhammed al Golani, leader of the al Qaeda group in Syria called al Nusra, gave an interview to Al Jazeera.

He said "We will continue our focus on Damascus and on toppling this regime."

Then al Golani emphasized -- "I assure you, Assad's fall won't take a long time."

Al Golani also called on the Alawites of Syria to put down their weapons and convert to Sunni Islam in order to save their lives. The Alawites are a breakaway from Shiite Islam and a minority in Syria.
But Assad, the Syrian president, is an Alawite.

Al Golani also had a few choice words for Hezbollah which is fighting for Assad and keeping him in power.

The point of the interview was to say that the tide of the war has shifted in favor of al Qaeda and the end is near. The end, for al Nusra, means the fall of Damascus and the ousting of Assad.

Despite the predictions of al Golani, at this point it is not clear if the momentum of the civil war in Syria really has shifted. Al Qaeda has had some important victories of late but that has hardly altered the stalemate that has been in place in Syria for three long years.

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Israel Accepts Iran Deal - Makes List Of Prizes for the US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has come to accept the inevitable - a nuclear deal between Iran and the West.

Israel is resigned to the realization that the deal will be signed and sealed within the next 8 weeks. After that, the sanctions will be lifted and Iran will again be a world power. Maybe even - a nuclear world power.

So the Israelis have begun to develop a wish list. It is a list of things they want from America. The IDF Planning division has been tasked with the responsibility of drawing up a list.

The first thing they will wish for will be an increase in the annual aid they receive, raising it from $3.1 billion to $4 billion. They will also want to extend the 10 year military aid deal which is set to expire in 2017. Israel will want to extend the deal now --- not to wait for a debate over the issue from the person elected president in 2016.

By congressional law Israel must have a qualitative edge over her neighbors. If other countries in the region are getting something, Israel needs to get the same thing - but they need more of it and they need it to be of a better quality.

Israel needs to be realistic. And the US needs to help Israel protect herself. As bad as this deal is for Israel there is at least some solace. The silver lining will be that, in the end, Israel will be better armed and better protected than they were before the deal was signed.

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Austrian Convict 14 Yr Old For Terror
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 26, 2015

Micah Halpern


An Austrian court sentenced a 14 year old to a suspended sentence of16 months in prison for joining a terror group and researching how to build a bomb. The teenager pleaded guilty to the charges.

The 14 year old is a citizen of Turkey. He used his Play Station game internet hook up to research the bomb making.

He has been in pre trial hold for the past seven months - ever since his arrest in October.

This case illustrates both how young kids are drawn in by the lure of ISIS and how they can keep it from their parents by using electronic games which parents wrongly assume are safe of the dangers of the internet.

Governments and prosecutors needs to look carefully at the recruitment of young people living in their countries. These young adults have been preyed upon by ISIS recruiters. Officials need to try to stop the flow and recruitment of ISIS supporters if they want to keep their countries safe.

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Obama Gives The Atlantic an Interview -- Why?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama spoke at Adas Israel in Washington yesterday. His topic was the condemnation of anti-Semitism. The president also spoke about his love for Israel and for Jews.

The day before his synagogue appearance, the Atlantic published an interview with the president -- an interview conducted by Jeffery Goldberg.

The essence of the interview in the Atlantic is that Barack Obama is aware of the gravity and the danger of the Iranian threat. The president realizes should Iran get a nuclear weapon - it will be his fault.

This is extremely powerful. Presidential ownership and responsibility has not been the norm. But as powerful as it is, it is not very comforting. So he owns the mistake - but in the end that does not make either Israel or the region any safer.

What struck me about the interview was not the insight Goldberg gave us into the Obama Iranian genuflection.

I was struck that Barack Obama sat down with Jeffrey Goldberg for the interview.

It was Jeffrey Goldberg, in the Atlantic, who gave the White House that huge black eye in October of last year on the subject of tensions between Washington and Jerusalem. It was Goldberg who quoted a senior White House official saying "The thing about Bibi is, he's a chickensh*t."

We were told that this was a huge embarrassment for the White House.
Told that heads would roll because of the statement. How could a senior person in the White House use that kind of terminology and refer to America's stalwart friend so smugly. Some guessed that the entire episode was a plant. The White House wanted to send a clear message to Netanyahu and this is how they chose to get that message across.

Months later, it seems clear those who always believed that the statement was intentionally made and printed were right on the money. Otherwise, why grant Goldberg, or for that matter anyone who writes for the Atlantic, a face to face just a few short months after that terrible faux pas.

Unless of course it was not a misspeak - but a deliberate message.

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Australia to Take citizneship from Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Australia is planning on taking more serious steps in their fight against Islamic terror and Islamic homegrown terror.

From now on in Australia, if you join ISIS and travel to fight for them, or if you join them in Australia and you are an immigrant or the child of an immigrant, they will strip your citizenship.

Peter Dutton, the Australian Minister of Immigration, announced the plans earlier this week.

This is a significant step - especially for Australia, which has a reputation for openness and claims to be the most diverse country in the word.

Homegrown Islamic terror and Australians running to join ISIS has become a threat to the homeland and needs to be addressed.

This new law may or may not dissuade young people from joining ISIS - but it will give Australia more power and more teeth to punish and prosecute Islamic terrorists. The threat of deportation might not seem daunting, but word will soon get around.

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Battle in the Golan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The heat during the day in the Golan Heights is brutal. Maybe that explains why summer is a time for fighting in the Golan. Whatever the reason, it has become the tradition. And this summer is no exception.

In two important battles over the past two weeks, Syrian rebels have extracted ISIS fighters from important positions very close to the Israeli border.

In both locations ISIS was attempting to expand their control - in the end, they lost and were badly defeated.

The first battle was waged just south of Qunetra, right on the Israeli border. That is where Jayash al Nusra, an ISIS affiliate, was defeated by rebels. During the second battle the Free Syrian Army, together with the Islamic group Jabhat al-Nusra, (which is affiliated with al Qaeda) overpowered ISIS fighters from the Shuhada al Yarmouk Brigades.

It is crucially important to understand that local issues trump ideology.

Groups cooperate with each other in order to make certain that the border with Israel remains quiet. That is why the Jabhat al-Nusra fought together with The Syrian Free Army.

ISIS was a threat to the stability and quiet of that border - and that was simply not acceptable.

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ISIS Rings in PA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

120 silver rings that had ISIS slogans on them arrived at Ben Gurion airport. They were imported from Turkey and they were to be sold to Palestinians.

En route to Ramallah, in the Palestinian Authority, the rings were confiscated. And will be destroyed.

The essential point is not that the rings were discovered. The significance is that they were to be sold. The significance is that there is a market for semi precious jewelry that proclaims support for ISIS.

120 people would wear those rings with the same pride we feel wearing our lodge rings or college rings.

Palestinian leadership has been shouting for months that there is no ISIS presence in the PA ... none. And yet ...

Given this discovery that claim is very hard to believe.


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EU Wants To Lead Israel-PA Peace Talks
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There is one thing almost everyone can agree on: The United States is losing influence in the Middle East.

As a result, other forces are lining up to try to exert leadership and influence in the vacuum that now exists.

The European Union is one of those forces. The leader of the 28 nation bloc EU is Federica Mogherini. She is 41 years old and the former foreign minister of Italy. Mogherini will be meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Wednesday where she will be propose that the EU step in and provide the much needed role of negotiations facilitator.

While it is true that the US role has diminished in the region, it is also true that the EU simply has neither the gravitas nor the ummpf necessary for that vital role. Besides, the Europe Union has a long history of siding against Israel.

Unless Mogherini can convince Israel otherwise, this proposal will simply die in the water. And someone else will try their hand at filling the role of negotiator.

Next ...

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Russia & China Navies Drill in the Med Sea
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and China are embarking on naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea.

The exercise will include 9 large ships and numerous smaller support vessels.

The headquarters for the maneuvers will be the Russian missile cruiser the Moskva which is attached to the Black Sea Fleet and is normally docked in Crimea.

The deputy commander of the Russian navy, Vice Admiral Alexander Fedotenkov, is running the exercise from the Russian side. According to him "Sea Cooperation 2015 drills ... were not aimed against a third country."

Of course --- this is pure 100% rhetoric.

These drills are aimed at the United States and her allies as well as at the entire Middle East. Russia and China are saying loudly and clearly that they are now, individually and collectively, significant players in the region.

From here on, Russia and China will influence and effect change on everyone and everything in the region.


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Abbas' Pre -Conditions
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gave a speech commemorating the
Palestinian nakba, it is called Nakba Day.

Nakba means catastrophe. Nakba Day falls out on May 15th every year.

May 15, 1948 is the day on the Gregorian calendar that the State of Israel was declared. Palestinian Catastrophe Day is Israel Independence Day. It does not have to be seen that way-- but it is.

Make special note that the Palestinians chose to celebrate this day according to the Gregorian calendar, not according to their Muslim calendar.

In his speech Abbas clearly repeated his conditions for returning to negotiations with Israel. His three pre-conditions are.

#1: Total stopping of settlement
#2: Release of prisoners
#3: Negotiations for just one year.

This set of pre-conditions set by the Palestinian leader is pie in the sky. That is why the starting point of negotiations for Israel is NO pre-conditions.

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Iran Caught Important Nuke Materials
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Do we really think that Iran can be trusted to live up to their end of the nuclear bargain?

This infraction was just made public: A UN report prepared by a committee that oversees nuclear sanctions against Iran showed proof that the Czech Republic recently stopped nuclear materials from being shipped to Iran.

The Czechs discovered that the paperwork on a set of highly sophisticated compressors was forged and false and reported their discovery to the UN panel.

That committee that monitors compliance with the UN sanctions regime determined that there had been a "false end user" on the paperwork.
That means the paperwork fraudulently stated where the compressors were headed.

"The procurer and transport company involved in the deal had provided false documentation in order to hide the origins, movement and destination of the consignment with the intention of bypassing export controls and sanctions."

These particular compressors made by Howden are used to enrich uranium to 90% plus - especially the essential fissile isotope unranium-235.

All this is happening while the P5 + 1 continue to push for a deal with Iran and while the US is trying to influence local leadership to trust the deal.

If you still think Iran can be trusted, think again.

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US Kills ISIS #2
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Iraqi defense ministry announced on its website that the number two leader of ISIS, the man who was successor to Baghdadi, was killed yesterday in an allied coalition air strike on a mosque in Northern Iraq.

Abu Ala al- Afri was reported killed.
"Based on accurate intelligence, an air strike by the coalition forces targeted the second in command of IS, Abu Alaa al-Afari,
(sic)" the ministry said in a statement on its website.

If this is true --- it is a huge victory for the West and for moderates in the region.

ISIS leader Baghdadi was reported to be badly wounded and suffering from a spinal injury. He was thought to be wounded in a coalition attack at the end of March. Al-Afri assumed the mantel of ISIS leadership the first week of April.

If, in the course six weeks, the West successfully hit both ISIS number #1 leader and ISIS replacement leader #1, it will hamstring the organization and their ability to govern and make decisions.

If true, this is a huge setback for ISIS. For everyone else, it is very good news.

But the question lingers: What does Iraq gain by releasing this information?

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Shiite Sunni Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday 19 Shiite pilgrims were killed and another 50 wounded in terror attacks in Baghdad, Iraq.

The pilgrims had gathered together in commemoration of the death of their Shiite leader from the 8th century, Imam Moussa al- Kazim.

Much of the tension and the fighting in the region traces back to the Sunni / Shiite conflict.

ISIS is Sunni.

Hezbollah is Shiite.

Iran is Shiite

Assad of Syria is from a break off of Shia.

Saudi Arabia is Sunni.

The Houthi in Yemen are Shiite.

Iraq is a split of Shiite and Sunni.

This Shiite Sunni divide can be seen throughout the entire Middle East. Without a doubt it is the most powerful cause for war and conflict between Arabs.

As we have seen over and over again, a Muslim Sunni can and will kill a Muslim Shiite with impunity. And vice versa.

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Arabs Stone Firefighters in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Firefighters are like doctors - they save lives, even the lives of bad guys.

Now picture this: Firefighters were called in to squelch a fire in Arab East Jerusalem in the neighborhood of A-Tur. The fire was spreading and homes and people were in danger.

And as the fire trucks were lining up and as the firefighters were attempting to put out the fires, they were stoned by the Arab residents.

Despite the barrage, the firefighters got the fire under control and prevented it from spreading further ... then they retreated. At that point the firefighters were in more danger from the pelting than they were from the flames.

Crazy? You bet! How can anyone make sense of what happened? Who behaves like that?

Why the residents of A-Tur did not run and say thank you to the firefighters is impossible to figure. They should have thrown candy - not rocks. Why throw rocks at people trying to save you and your community?

In the end the fire fighters succeeded in saving the entire block and all the people. The firefighters fought back the fire while under rock fire.

I am waiting to see if any Palestinian leaders condemn, comment on or chastise the rock throwers.

So far - silence.

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Arab Tribes Unite Against ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Sinai Tribal Federation had their first meeting yesterday. The Federation is a newly formed group of tribes in the Sinai desert in Egypt banding together to fight ISIS.

Members of the Federation are feeling threatened and abused by ISIS. The Egyptian army is trying their best to protect them, but the tribes think they need to step it up. They issued a statement saying that they are discussing ways to confront ISIS and other extremists who want to topple Egypt.

This is a major move on the part of tribal leaders. This does not happen often. On their own, Arabs are standing up and defending themselves against aggressive extremists.

This is unique. This is good.


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2 Important Items
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There are 2 interesting items that just happened that I want people to know about:

1- ISIS staged a prison break in Iraq freeing 50 of their fighters and killing 15 guards.
This seems bold - and that is exactly typical of the ISIS style of doing things.

ISIS does what it wants, when it can. The only time ISIS does not act is when it is clear that they will not succeed.

2- The Saudis and the Houthi have agreed to a 5 day truce.
But the Iranian press is reporting that a monster cargo ship with thousands of tons of aid is now on its way to Hodeida the Yemeni port controlled by the Houthi. If you and I know about the shipment so do the Saudis. And they will prevent the cargo from arriving.

There may be medical aid and humanitarian assistance on the ship. But the Saudis would be skeptical even of that. The Saudi would need to make certain that weapons are not being smuggled in to help the Houthis. That is a risk that the Saudis will not take.

So short an of inspection -- Saudi Arabia will not permit the vessel to dock in Yemen.

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Fighting Btw Al Qaeda, ISIS & Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Fighting has picked up between Hezbollah and ISIS and al Nusrah. I expect that the fighting will continue throughout the summer.

Battles are taking place north of Damascus in a mountain area called Qalamoun. It is actually a mountain range. The Qalamoun Mountain Range.

The area borders Lebanon and Syria. The Lebanese border sticks out into Syria like a finger.

Media has reported that Hezbollah lost 40 fighters in these battles.
Hezbollah does not usually respond to these reports - instead, they report their own story on their own TV and radio stations as well as on the websites. They set the record according to their own point of view.

Hezbollah says that they lost 4 fighters and that their families have been informed.

This region is significant. Whoever controls the little finger controls the mountain passes which descend straight down to the Mediterranean Sea.

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Bibi's New Government
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The joke goes ---

Q - "What is worse that losing an Israeli election?"

A - "Winning the election!"

There is little doubt that when Netanyahu and his party won the March 17 election they were elated. But in Israel today, the political reality is that building a government means sharing power - and that most definitely dilutes the victory. Netanyahu's party is not happy with the results of their victory.

Many prime positions have been divided up and will be shared with coalition partners. There is no way of making that sound good. The secret to a long lasting coalition government of 61 members is that the partners, all the partners, need to be happy.

At any moment any coalition member can become disenchanted and bolt - bringing down the government. The only hope is that party discipline, commitment to issues and the fear of a new election in which you might garner fewer seats than you won in this election, will tether the parties and their representatives to the Netanyahu - led coalition government.

It can work. The fear of losing power is tangible. The question is whether that fear trumps ideology.

Time will tell. For now, there is a government.

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Saudi Plane Lands In Israel For Service
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

This is certainly a sign that the times, they are a changing.

An Air Saudi Airbus A300 landed in Tel Aviv for routine maintenance. The job is being done by Bedek, a company contracted by Israel Aircraft Industries to service airplanes.

The plane is owned by a European company and leased to the Saudis.
It is part of the fleet of the commercial carrier Saudi Air - the
official national airline of Saudi Arabia and fully owned by the Saudi government.

This does not mean that full diplomatic relations between Saudi
Arabia have begun - although there are back channels that are often used for communication. But, in an earlier era, if a Saudi or other friendly Arab representative or product were to arrive in Israel it would be handled discretely and certainly, the name and any other identifying marks would have been covered over. Not so this time.
In the end, this could prove very embarrassing for Saudi Arabia. Some things are better not seen.

Below is a link of the Saudi Air plane at Ben Gurion airport, located just outside of Tel Aviv. That is where Bedek services its planes.

http://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/595914479239462913/photo/1


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Momentum in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

He is "The Tiger." He is, in Arabic, al Namr, That is what they call him. His real name is Colonel Suhail al Hassan. He is the "go to" man in Syria for President Bashar Assad.

The man is a living legend for the Syrian supporters of Assad. He is a terror, a living nightmare, for those fighting against the regime.
He is sent into every place where Assad needs to win and once there, al Hassan defeats his enemy. He is brutal. He is thorough. He is driven. Most of all - he is successful.

This week a video was leaked of al Hassan pleading on the phone. He is in Aleppo where the battle being waged is fierce. He is asking for ammunition for his highly trained and highly motivated troops.
They are well paid and well respected. His immediate force is composed of about 1,000 elite fighters.

On this call, his tone indicates weakness. His tone sounds desperate. It is not the sound of "The Tiger."

If Aleppo should fall into the hands of the al Nusra and ISIS it will be a major setback to Assad. Momentum will swing to ISIS and Al Nusra. It will give them the courage and incentive to advance in the Syrian Golan and in Damascus. A military win in Aleppo will give ISIS and al Nusra the psychological boost they have been desperately waiting for.

We must watch and see what happens next. If "The Tiger" gets enough ammunition and gets it fast enough to repel ISIS and Al Nusra then the position of Assad will remain strong and unchanged. If he fails, Syria becomes a changed country.

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Islam Hates Any Image of Mohammed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

What do you call a terror attack when it takes place in suburban Dallas? Well, you certainly do not call it a terror attack.
Gunmen perpetrated an attack against a conference on freedom of speech that sponsored a competition for cartoon depictions of the prophet Mohammed. And that attack has yet to be labeled a terror attack.

We can assume that the terrorists were upset by the depictions and by the competition. We assume that they were offended by the subject of the competition and decided to defend the honor of the Prophet. And they chose, as did the terrorists in Paris who attacked Charlie Hebdo, to use guns as their defense tool.

What so irks Muslims about the portrayal of their Prophet in art?
One might think that it is disrespect - and that indeed might be the basis of the anger played out in Dallas. But that is not the reason for the Islamic prohibition against depictions of Mohammed the Prophet. In fact, during the Middle Ages, Muslim art was replete with images of Mohammed. In most of those depictions, however, the faces were blurred.

The reason for the prohibition is a direct reaction against paganism. In that way it is not dissimilar to the Biblical commandment against graven images.

A bit of background: Islam emerged out of a pagan society and believers feared that any depiction of the Prophet would be worshiped. Islam rejects that outright. In Islam, Mohammed was both a man and a prophet and he cannot be worshiped.

Out of fear that followers would create icons and images and figures and then worship them --- Islam forbade the creation of an image or the portrayal of Mohammed.

Today it is an entirely different story. Portrayals and cartoons and caricatures are not icons and could never be seen as anything other than a lampooning of their subject matter.

At issue is freedom of speech versus respect for Islamic sensibilities. Given the choice there is no doubt that, in the West, freedom of speech trumps the sensibilities of any religion, not only Islam, and trumps, as well, almost every other value out there.

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Secret Weapon Attacks ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS is being struck by leishmaniasis.

Leishmaniasis is not a new military missile. It is not a secret weapon used by the US coalition. But leishmaniasis may turn out be a more effective weapon against ISIS than any smart bomb.

Leishmaniasis is a flesh eating skin disease caused by parasites and spread by the bite of sand flies. It is easily treatable with the proper care - a plan ISIS has not yet put into operation. Poor hygiene, poor nutrition and contaminated water all cause the spread of the parasite.

If not treated, flesh is literally eaten away and the patient, the host providing food for the parasite, dies.

So far about 100,000 people have contracted leishmaniasis in the area of Raqqa, the ISIS capital in Syria.

No one knows how many of the 100,000 sufferers are ISIS fighters and supporters but one must assume that if it is that prevalent ISIS members have been struck by the disease.

Before ISIS took over the area the parasite was being treated by Doctors Without Borders and they were getting the disease under control. Once ISIS came along these doctors fled the area taking their medicine with them and the parasite that reemerged is even more aggressive than the original disease spreader.

The pictures are pretty gruesome.

Some might say that this is a curse, "a pox on ISIS." Others might simply say --- "it could not have happened to a nicer group of people."

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New Leader of ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like ISIS has a new leader. According to a piece in the British Guardian - containing information that is still unconfirmed, the founder and leader of ISIS was victim of a US drone strike that rendered him incapable of leading.

The Guardian quotes Iraqi intel sources saying that Baghdadi suffered a spinal injury. They say he is in Mosul and accompanied by two doctors at all times.

The new leader is Abed a Rachman Mustapha. He goes by the name Abu Ala al Afri. It is common practice in Arab culture to confer a new name after your first born son. The name becomes Abu which translates to mean "father of ...."

Not much is known about Abu Ala al Afri. He was second in command to Baghdadi. Before joining ISIS he was very active in al Qaeda. In al Qaeda he was very close to Zarqawi up until his demise at the hand of the West. Since joining ISIS, Abu Ala al Afri has been a commander.
One interesting detail we do know is that he was a professor of physics.

People report that al Afri is dynamic, interacts well with others, has operational experience and he has very good contacts.

It looks as if Baghdadi was unable to lead and stepped aside in order for his number two to assume the new mantle of leadership.

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Human Rights Watch Condemns Israeli Aid to Nepal
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Ken Roth, the executive director of Human Rights Watch, tweeted this:

"Easier to address a far-away humanitarian disaster than the nearby one of Israel's making in Gaza. End the blockade!"

It is a horrific attack against Israel for helping to save lives after the tragedy that rocked not only Nepal, but the world.
In a warped conception of what it right and what is wrong, Roth was saying that Israel should help the Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel sent two jumbo jets and 260 rescuers to Nepal. The medical equipment they sent included a fully outfitted field hospital.
Israelis are saving lives in Nepal, just as they did in Haiti in 2010.
Israel is one of -- if not the - best in the world when it comes to disaster relief. They have honed their skills and continue to develop better and faster techniques for dealing with disaster when it strikes.

The US pledged $1million and will probably cough up another $9 million. Israel did not give money but their presence is worth far more than $10 million.

The next largest delegation in Nepal came from the United Kingdom. They have 68 members on their team. China has 62 people there and the United States sent a team of 54.

Roth is so anti-Israel that even when Israel does something that can only be interpreted as "good " he finds fault in their actions.

How interesting that an agency that purports to be a humanitarian agency, as Human Rights Watch does, should criticize one nation for offering vital humanitarian aid to another nation in need.

Roth should be chastised. Israel should stand proud.

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Iran Trying to Get Nuke Materials
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

As Iran and the United States and the other P5+1 nations sprint towards an agreement that will meet their June 30th deadline, I saw a small report leaked by AP. As dramatic as it is - and believe me, it is dramatic, I was not surprised to read the release.

England has told the UN special panel on nuclear issues that there is an "active Iranian nuclear procurement network."

The network is connected to Iranian companies and they are reaching out around the world buying uranium and other basics for nuclear development. This warning was presented to the UN on April 20th.

The confidential report to the UN committee names the two Iranian companies that comprise the network. They are Iran's Centrifuge Tech Company and Kalay Electric Company.

Don't be surprised. For Iran, this is clearly an established, tried and true method of negotiation. For Iran, there is no conflict in working to resolve an issue and forge an agreement while, at the same time, secretly undermining the very objectives of the future agreement.

The only question I ask, once again, is how the United States can be so naive that they do not realize this was happening - and right under their noses.

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Interpol Going After ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS makes about $100 million a year stealing and then selling off ancient art and archeological artifacts. It is a major source of their annual budget. It is so significant that ill begotten art sales equal about 1/3 of their oil revenues.

ISIS has raided museums and historical sites throughout Iraq and
Syria. They strip the sites and sell the artifacts and even pieces of statues on the open market where collectors, through middle men of course, gobble them up. The buyers are willing to pay very good money for these priceless pieces.

The Secretary of Interpol, General Jurgen Stock, has said that his agency is now going to make stopping the sale of these artifacts by ISIS a priority.

"In the eyes of criminals, cultural heritage often stands as an easy target," Stock said. "The current situation in Syria and Iraq presents a significant challenge as sites vulnerable to destruction are often out of effective government control and illicit excavations dominate the picture."

We can only hope that Interpol and other law enforcement agencies in the Western world can stop ISIS from destroying and desecrating priceless pieces of history and that, by clamping down on this illicit activity they will eliminate a very profitable avenue of revenue for ISIS.

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Israel Will Not Hit Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Two mortars shot from Syria landed in Israel yesterday.

Israel will not respond to the mortar attack.

Israel determined that the mortars were errant. They went astray and were not deliberate shots into Israel. They landed in the orchards of Kibbutz Ein Zivan which happens to be situated very close to a UN camp.

There was fighting in Syria near the side of the border that is very close to the Israeli border. Israel was watching the fighting very closely so that it did not spill over and to make sure that the parties did not simply change the direction of their shooting. Watching and monitoring is one of the standard modus operandi for Israel.

In this case, battle was raging and mortars were flying and two of them simply went off in the wrong direction. So there was no reason to respond.

Israel appreciates it when Hezbollah and al Qaeda fight - they root for both sides to win. They want both sides to use up as many weapons and armaments as possible and for them to kill each other. It makes for a safer Israel.

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Al Qaeda Attacks Hezbollah in Syria- Israel Blamed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The al Qaeda Affiliate in Syria, the group that goes by the name Al Nusra, attacked a weapons convoy transporting sophisticated weapons destined for Hezbollah.

It all happened on Friday. Over the weekend this attack was a feature throughout the Arabic media with Arabic stations reporting that it was the Israelis who perpetrated the attack against the weapons. They reasoned that the weapons would fall into Hezbollah's hand and probably be used against Israel.

Both al Jazeera and al Arabiya blamed Israel - but Israel refused to comment. The Arab press later discussed a second Israeli attack that killed 4 Hezbollah members who were setting up a bomb along the border between Israel and Syria just at the spot where the border also abuts Lebanon.

Before too long it became clear that the Israelis were not responsible for the weapons attack. Sources reported that al Nusra wanted to make certain that Hezbollah did not get weapon superiority. Hezbollah was trying to push al Nusra out of Syria and al Nusra cannot let that happen.

This was a perfect move. Israel could have targeted the convoy. It might actually have been on their agenda. But al Qaeda's al Nusra did it first. And that made the region a little safer.

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Palestinians Disappointed in Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are upset that Netanyahu was reelected.

The Palestinian National Central Council, which is the Palestinian leadership committee, will meet on Wednesday April 29 to discuss upcoming future interactions between Palestinians and Israel.

In brief, the Palestinians think that the next Israeli government will be extremely right of center.

Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator, had this to say: "I've been told that this will be the most extreme government in Israel."

He also said: "If the prime minister doesn't want to accept a Palestinian state, what will I talk to him about?"

And: "We will hold the Israeli prime minister accountable for any crimes committed against Palestinians." Continuing: "It will not be cost-free legally."

There are a number of essential points to discuss following these comments by Erekat.

Israelis want peace - but elected Netanyahu. That is because they do not think Palestinians want peace.

Palestinians have thus far sought out and found any and every excuse not to sit at the negotiating table.

And how can Saeb Erekat know the makeup of the government which is still up in the air?

Finally, it has always been a right wing government that has moved Israel toward peace agreements. It is right wing governments that convinced the majority of Israelis that concessions were essential to improving and securing Israel ... that peace is the best security that Israel can hope for.

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New ISIS Video About Healthcare
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched a new ISIS video.

This one is about their new and wonderful health care.

The ISIS video is staged in the ISIS capital city in Syria, the city is called Raqqa. The video calls on medical professionals to come and join ISIS and contribute their skills to the IS.

The most fascinating part of this slick and very professional video is an interview with an Australian who calls himself Abu Yussef. The interviewee has been identified as Tareq Kamleh, a native Australian who was trained in Adelaide University in Australia and then moved to Perth and now works for ISIS in Syria.

Kamleh aka Abu Yussef speaks about how important his work is and how happy he is helping the Uma, the Islamic people. He actually calls his work a jihad.

As a medical recruitment tool, this video is very effective.

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Iran Will Be a Giant When Sanctions are Lifted
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

If a deal with Iran is signed on June 30, Iran will be welcomed into the community of nations. Economically, that would have a huge impact.

Iran is the third largest country in the Middle East. Egypt is the largest with a population of about 90 million. Turkey follows with 83 million and Iran has about 80 million people.

Iranians are primarily well educated and young.

Before the crisis of 1979, Iran had a very healthy import from the US. Iran imported of $3.7 billion worth of US products. While at the same time the United States imported $2.9 billion worth of goods from Iran.

That was in 1979, 36 years ago. Today that number would be 4 times higher.

In the 1990s, through subsidiaries, the United States purchased $3.4 billion worth of Iranian oil. Before this last round of sanctions were placed on Iran in this recent UN sanctions move, Iran was the third largest producer and exporter of oil in the world.

When sanctions are lifted Iran will become a major exporter over night - and that will catapult it into a world power. With that power Iran will become the voice of all the small nations and downtrodden peoples in the region.

When the sanctions are lifted - Iran will become a giant.

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Elections at College-- Hamas Wins
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Bir Zeit University in Ramallah, located just north of Jerusalem, just held student council elections.

Bir Zeit is the elite university for Palestinians. There are 9,000 undergrads and 1200 graduate students at the university. 47 BA degrees are offered and 26 MA degrees. The election drew 77% of the undergraduate student body.

The results are telling.

In student council at Bir Zeit University, Hamas defeated Fatah. Of the 51 council seats, Hamas' Wafaa party garnered 26. Fatah, the party begun under Yasser Arafat, will have only 19 seats.

Last year Fatah got 23 seats and Hamas 20.

This election was watched very closely by all Palestinian leaders and by Israel.

University elections often offer insight into the perspective of the population-at-large and are the first to show trends in future leadership, in business and in politics.

Winning an election at Bir Zeit, the heart of the West Bank, is a major victory for Hamas and a terrible blow to Fatah.

Hamas is on the rise. There is no possible way of interpreting this election any other way.

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A Miracle -- Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I marvel at the miracle.

Most of the time I take it for granted, but every year, on Israeli Independence Day, I marvel anew at the miracle called the modern State of Israel.

Israel was established 67 years ago. At the time there were 806,000 citizens. Today there are 8,345,000. That is a ten fold increase.
That's a miracle.

When Israel was created Tel Aviv Yaffa had 100,000 residents. Today there are 14 cities with over 100,000 residents and 6 of those cities have over 200,000 citizens. That's a miracle.

Israel grew by 162,000 people last year. There were 44,000 deaths. 32,000 people made aliyah - despite, or perhaps in spite of, the tension of this past summer. That's a miracle.

Here is the most remarkable number of them all. 176,000 babies were born. Every birth is a miracle. Now multiply that by 176,000.
75% of Israelis are native born sabras.

6,251,000 are Jewish. 1,730,000, or 20.7% of the population, are Arabs.

These numbers are nothing short of a miracle. At 67 years old Israel has exceeded all expectations. 67 years ago, when our parents and grandparents witnessed the birth of the State of Israel, they hardly believed it would last this long.

Happy birthday and forever more.

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Taliban Announce Their Spring Season
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this morning the Taliban announced their spring season.

Now that the snow has melted spring fighting will begin. This year the Taliban are calling their new offensive AZM which, in Arabic and in their native dialect, Dari, means perseverance.

Remember, the Taliban have also declared their Islamic state. The Islamic state of the Taliban is called The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

In years past springtime brought a huge increase in attacks against NATO and Afghani forces. This year will be different. Most of the international forces have pulled out of the area and so this spring season the Taliban will face off against Afghan army forces exclusively.

The West has been preoccupied with Iran and ISIS. We have paid very little attention to the Taliban. These next few weeks, the start of the new season, will be important. We need to watch carefully and determine if the momentum shifts in favor of the Taliban. That is something we do not want to happen.

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Carter to Israel - President Rivlin will Not Meet Him
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Former US President Jimmy Carter is to arrive in Israel on April 30 for a 3 day trip that will include Gaza and the Palestinian Authority.

Israeli President Rivlin will not meet the former US president. Israel's foreign ministry advised Rivlin to break protocol and not meet with this former US president because Carter has consistently done his best to delegitimize Israel and meeting with him would help further that cause.

Carter has spoken publicly about Israeli apartheid policies on numerous occasions and even wrote a book about the subject. Carter has urged Israel to recognize and dialogue with Hamas.

In the past, when Shimon Peres held the post of president of Israel and Jimmy Carter came to visit, Peres would meet with him. And then Peres would take Carter to task - privately and publicly. Peres would use the opportunity to correct Carter on the record.
Rivlin is a different personality and he has decided not to follow in Peres' footsteps.

Carter has good intentions --he is just misguided and he is totally wrong. And if given legitimacy, Jimmy Carter can do terrible harm to Israel and to the region.

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Trust Iran More Than the White House
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

We are learning more and more about the agreement with Iran. And most of what we are learning comes from the Iranians. They are telling us that the four page agreement that the White House and State Department have given us is not at all what our leaders have promised us in what is known as the framework agreement.

An Iranian leader was quoted on Iranian state TV yesterday saying that they will not permit nuclear inspections in any of their military sites.

This is enormously important.

I am suggesting that Iranian sources are more reliable than the White House and the State Department.

Can you imagine what that means?

It seems that the Iranians have maintained that there really is not a framework agreement at all. There is simply an agreement to continue talking until June 30.

To put it mildly, this is very disturbing.

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Iran Cyber Attack Against Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday March 31, half of Turkey - 44 of 81 provinces, 40 million people including those living in Istanbul and Ankara - suffered a massive power outage that lasted a solid twelve hours.

The blackout was caused by a cyber hack that originated in Iran.

The cyber attack was payback, a taste of what Iran has to offer.
Everything went down. Computers, airports, air traffic, traffic lights, hospitals, lights, elevators, refrigeration, water and sewage, everything simply stopped. In an instant Turkey was transported back to the stone ages.

Iran's cyber army has propelled itself into one of the world's best.
They have become very good at their craft and have probably inserted malware into the electric grids of many other countries - probably even the US. Over the past twelve months Iran has successfully and repeatedly broken into the defensive systems networks of several Western nations.

This attack on Turkey is the first time that Iran shut down a country through a cyber attack. This kind of an attack can bring the enemy to its knees very quickly.

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Obama Invites Gulf Leaders to Lobby on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama has invited leaders of critical Sunni Gulf states to Washington for a two day meeting. Day one, May 13, will convene at the White House. Day two, May 14, will be at Camp David.

The purpose of the invite to the White House and the coveted presidential mountain resort, Camp David, is to convince these leaders that an agreement with Iran is good for everyone. Especially for those in the region.

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have all been invited.

Obama is going to have to be very convincing. These Gulf State countries do not trust Iran. And they think that in his dealings with Iran, President Obama is delusional. They are convinced that Iran will become a nuclear state almost immediately after the agreement is signed and they do not think the United States can stop that from happening.

And if in the end Iran does get a nuclear deal, they want the same deal.

On paper, this meeting is a great idea. Unfortunately though, I think that Barack Obama will be the one sitting in the student seat and be lectured to by those who live in the region and do not trust Iran.

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Al Qaeda in Yemen Now on the Rise
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Shiite Houthi has nearly taken over Yemen. Saudi Arabia and their eleven nation Sunni Arab coalition has continued to bomb the Houthi in order to prevent them from taking control of Yemen's ports and control of vital assets and resources.

With all eyes on the Houthi over the past few weeks al Qaeda of Yemen, also known as al Qaeda of the Arabia Peninsula, has been left unchecked. Taking advantage of the situation, and al Qaeda has spent their time re-organizing and starting to take control of areas they consider to be strategic.

The Houthi and al Qaeda are arch enemies.

Yesterday, al Qaeda took over the airport of al Mukallah, the fifth largest city in Yemen. They also took over an oil export port and refinery in Dhabah which is on the Arabian Sea.

Al Qaeda of Yemen has scored a huge victory. They beat the Houthi, the Saudis, the Yemeni authority and whatever is left of the Yemeni army all at the same time. With these victories come money, power, prestige and recruits.

They did it all while everyone was ignoring them. The Middle East is not mono-dimensional. There are always multiple balls in the air and many factors in play.

The Houthi were able to gain momentum, at first, because the US was consumed by al Qaeda and paid them no mind. As soon as their attention was diverted towards the Houthi, al Qaeda was free to carry on, unhampered, with their dastardly deeds. They did it all while everyone was ignoring them.

The Middle East is not mono-dimensional. There are always multiple balls in the air and many factors at play. To think otherwise is not wise at all.

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Hamas Building Tunnels & Making Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A report in the Times of Israel echoed a report in the British Telegraph. The reports should not surprise anyone who follows the happenings of the Middle East.

Hamas is rebuilding their labyrinth of tunnels. The report in the
Times of Israel described Hamas using small bulldozers to speed the process and to access small areas.

The British Telegraph said that Iran has funneled $10's of millions in order to reconstruct the tunnels of Hamas.

The most interesting and unique element to come out of the article in the Times of Israel is that military experts and analysts in Israel are reporting that Hamas is building a slew of new rockets. All short range rockets.

The lesson learned by Hamas in their conflict with Israel this past summer was that short range rockets were both less likely to be shot down by the Iron Dome and were more effective at terrifying and terrorizing Israelis.

So now Hamas is dedicating much time and energy to producing new, smaller, short range rockets to fire at Israel in the near future.

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Massive Cyber Hack on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The results are in.

April 7th was to be the day for the annual, all out, cyber attack against Israel. It was a huge failure.

The attack is called #OPIsrael. There were to be hackivists from all over the Muslim world drumming up support and energy for a huge tidal wave of hacking against Israel. It was described as a cyber Holocaust against Israel. In fact, the date April 7th was selected because the first year the attack was planned, that date coincided with Holocaust Memorial Day.

This was the third year of the hack. It is coordinated by a hacker named AnonGhost. This particular hacker works out of Tunsia.
There was more hype leading up to the day than actual hacking on the day. A few hundred private websites were hacked and a few thousand email accounts and passwords were leaked - but most of those were recycled from last year's list.

The best analysis I saw was by SenseCY, a cyber security firm in Israel. They monitored the entire event. Most of the chatter was on social networks and not in the dangerous areas like the darknet, where real hackers hang and act.

Even in the social media world the hack against Israel barely got noticed. It peaked at 3000 tweets. That is hardly an international movement.

On one message board people were bemoaning the small turnout and lack of impact relative to previous years. They suggested that people were simply bored and tired of repeating the same hack.

That is not good news for Israel. When amateur hackers get bored and try to work out new plans, the results are often diabolical. This year, Israel got lucky.

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Russia To Send Missiles to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Russia decided to loosen restrictions on missile sales to Iran. They will be delivering a shipment of S-300 missiles as soon as possible.

Israel was informed of the decision just before it was made public. Israel is most concerned - but expected it. After all, this is an outgrowth of the framework agreement with Iran.

Israel's main concern is that the S-300's will be shipped from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In 2007, Russia initiated an $800 million missile deal with Iran.
But because of the sanctions they never completed the deal. In 2011, Iran sued Russia for $4 billion in an international court for breach of contract and for losses. The case is still pending.

The White House expressed disappointment with Russia.

But really, what is the message the US is conveying? What do they expect?

Russia said they intend to ship the missiles quickly, as soon, that is, as the political leadership gives the go ahead.

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Bush Calls Out Obama on Castro & Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Candidates are starting to get serious about the 2016 US presidential election.

Hillary Clinton declared yesterday. Rand Paul declared a few days earlier.

Jeb Bush is still as of yet undeclared, but he is certainly testing the water. He has name recognition and would be a formidable candidate.

Yesterday Jeb Bush tweeted a serious critique of President Obama. Obama met with Raul Castro, the leader of Cuba, a repressive anti democratic regime. We know that Obama has intentions regarding Cuba.

But Bush called him to task in a different way. He asked how can you meet with Castro and not with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu?!
"Obama meets with Castro but refused to meet w/ @netanyahu," Bush wrote on Twitter. "Why legitimize a cruel dictator of a repressive
regime?"

There is something profound about the statement.

The purpose behind the tweet was to present Jeb Bush as a defender of Israel. It was to get him front and center in the eyes of Jewish donors and lovers of Israel - a position he does not yet occupy.

This is a sure way of getting the important funding every politician needs and will certainly help boost his 2016 campaign.

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Coalition Building in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Building a coalition to govern in Israel is a huge task.

Theoretically, the winner of the election has power, but practically, much of that power must be ceded much in order to lure other parties to join the coalition in order to govern.

The deadline for the coalition is April 22. It is ten days from now. The winner of the election then gets a total of 42 days to create a coalition. Likud and Netanyahu got 28 days plus a built in 14 day extension.

There are major obstacles blocking the formation of a coalition.
Parties and their leaders vie for more and more power for themselves and try to limit the power of other partners.

Everyone thinks that time is on their side. But it if they do not join the coalition when given the opportunity, and if Netanyahu does not form a coalition within the allotted time, the president will charge another party to form a coalition. And that could mean that these very parties negotiating for more and more will, in the end, lose any chance of having the power. And like most politicians they decisions they make will be dictated by power over principle.

Likud will convince them to join him. I predict a last minute deal.

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What Iran is Really Doing in Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday the Supreme Leader of Iran the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei gave a nationally televised speech in which he called the Saudi response to the Houthi in Yemen a genocide that is punishable by international court.

What is important here is not that the pot is calling the kettle black.

What is important is that the Saudis have gotten the attention of Iran in their response to the Iranian sponsored Houthi overthrow and takeover of Yemen.

Two weeks ago the Saudis put together an 11 nation Sunni force to strike Shiite Houthi from the air.

The stakes have now increased.

Last week the Egyptian navy came to the Gulf of Eden and shelled the Houthi who were attempting to take over the port city and choke the gulf. Had the Houthi been successful they would have done immeasurable damage to Egypt and others by shutting down the Suez Canal.

Since then, Iranian war ships were also dispatched to the area around Aden.

Now we have a naval standoff between Shiites and Sunnis in the Gulf of Aden.

It should be clear that Iran and its Shiites proxy want control of the port of Aden and the waterway. It should be equally clear that the Sunnis do not want that strategic waterway to fall into Shiite hands. If it does it would mean two of the most important water passes - the gulf of Aden and the straits of Hormuz, were under the control of Iran.

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ISIS Killing Palestinians in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Several days ago ISIS took control of a Palestinian refugee camp called Yarmouk. At its peak there were 180,000 Palestinians living there. Since the conflict in Syria, Yarmouk has shrunk to about 18,000 Palestinians.

Yarmouk is really a neighborhood in Damascus. It is located only 5 miles away from the very center of the city.

In the past, ISIS had tried to take over Yarmouk several times. It abuts a neighborhood they already control, and the move to take control of Yarmouk is an attempt to get a flank of the Syrian capital and then use it to move on the center of the city.

Since taking over Yarmouk there have been reports of beheadings and mass murder of Palestinians by ISIS. The UN has said that the situation is worse than dire.

Palestinian Authority leadership has just sent a delegation to Damascus. The group was sent out after a commitment from Syria to use military force to secure Yarmouk was confirmed.

The Syrian army must now make the retaking of Yarmouk a priority. It is a principle for the Palestinians - they must get back their neighborhood. It is also an essential strategic objective for Syria - they must not permit a flank to emerge in their capital.

This delegation from the PA is going to make certain that the agreement is fulfilled.

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ISIS Now Has English Radio
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has just launched an English language radio bulletin service.
Every day ISIS puts out a bulletin that runs 9 minutes and 30 seconds long. The intro and end of the bulletins showcase traditional Arabic music. The bulletins contain news headlines and eschew the ISIS point of view, similar to what is produced and presented on the ISIS radio network and ISIS websites.

This English language bulletin joins already running radio bulletins in Russia and in Afghani.

ISIS has opened a social media campaign with the express purpose of driving committed followers and other interested parties to listen to their taped broadcasts. There was a huge twitter response to the new radio spots.

That ISIS is creating slick, impressive, professional youth oriented media should be no surprise. This radio bulletin is just another in a slew of spectacular media products that ISIS has released in order to lure young people to their cause and to attract people to fight for their cause in Iraq and Syria.

These media casting calls by ISIS must be answered by equally attractive counter appeals.

Unfortunately, the Western response has been, at best, uninspired and lackluster.

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Turkey & Iran Meet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the now infamous leader of Turkey, visited Iran.

Erdogan of Turkey traveled to meet with his counterpart, Rouhani of Iran. It was a major meeting and in the end they held a joint press conference during which they called for an end to bloodshed and suffering in the region.

The entire episode is mind boggling. These two leaders and their countries find themselves on opposite side of almost every issues in the Middle East – and here they are, acting in concert.

Iran supports Assad. Turkey supports the rebels in Syria and in Iraq. Iran supports Hezbollah, Turkey sides with ISIS.

As late as last week Turkey called Iran a force bent on destabilizing the region thrusting the region into conflict. Turkey joined the multi-national force organized by Saudi Arabia to combat the Houthi in Yemen while Iran sponsors the Houthi in Yemen.

So what does it all mean?

It means that Iran is playing the diplomat card. It means that Turkey wants to be the big diplomat in the region, just as Iran does. It means that this is a very dangerous alliance.

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Islamists Hate one Another
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

All extremist Muslim Sunni groups are not in cahoots. Actually, many of them are at one another's throat.

I was extremely pleased to note that Hamas arrested a radical sheik who is a Salafi. The sheik, Adnana Khadar Mayat, is being held in a Hamas prison charged with being part of ISIS.

"Adnan Khader Mayat from the Bureij refugee camp (in central Gaza) was arrested as part of an investigation," the AFP reported. The quote was without attribution because the source was speaking on condition of anonymity and gave no further details.

The AFP continued and said that sources close to the Salafists said Mayat had been arrested yesterday "by the Hamas government security services who fight mujahedeen who belong to the Salafist movement."
The essential point here is that one extremist group is fighting the other.

That is important, very important.

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PA Returns Tax Money
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Israel decided to unfreeze the taxes they have been collecting for the Palestinian Authority over the past few months.
These are taxes that Israel collects from imports and then hands over to the PA.

The total comes to about $130 million per month. Periodically, to apply pressure on the PA, Israel withholds the tax money. And then, after a short period of time the monies get freed up and are handed over to the PA.

This time Israel unfroze the tax money and transferred it to the PA but first subtracted some of the debt the PA owes to the Israel
Electric Company. Not the entire debt, just part of it.
After discovering this --- Abbas decided to return the tax money to Israel.

Abbas said: "We are returning the money. Either they give it to us in full or we go to arbitration or to the court (ICC). We will not accept anything else."

Again, for Abbas and the PA, it is all or nothing.

As an aside: the PA will lose in arbitration at the ICC if Israel agrees to appear. Which they will not agree to do.

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Bibi Demands Iran Recognize Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Obviously, the government of Israel is not happy with the framework of the nuclear agreement with Iran.

In response Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a statement that any agreement that permits Iran that kind of latitude on nuclear technology must insist that Iran recognize Israel.

"Israel demands that any final agreement with Iran will include a clear and unambiguous Iranian commitment of Israel's right to exist," Netanyahu said in a statement.

The idea is a brilliant counter to Iran's demand for nuclear technology.

If Iran really wants this technology they must state publicly that Israel has the right to exist - then there will be no fear or even a question over using that nuclear material to wipe Israel off the map.

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Bibi's Objections to the Iran Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I spent hours pouring over the text of the 4 page agreement between Iran and the P5+1 or what is commonly called the Western powers.

It is filled with specifics that are ambiguous and details that are oblique. There are huge loopholes and details are simply missing.

Some have responded saying - yes of course, that is to be expected, it is only a framework for an agreement. The final agreement will hammer out the details.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks otherwise. He spoke about the details in the agreement after the cabinet meeting on Friday, the eve of Passover.

"Israel will not accept an agreement which allows a country that vows to annihilate us to develop nuclear weapons, period."
A deal must "include a clear and unambiguous Iranian recognition of Israel's right to exist"

Netanyahu said his Cabinet "is united strongly opposing the proposed deal."

"Such a deal does not block Iran's path to the bomb."

"Such a deal paves Iran's path to the bomb. And it might very well spark a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East and it would greatly increase the risks of terrible war."

"They would not shut down a single nuclear facility in Iran, would not destroy a single centrifuge in Iran and will not stop research and development on Iran's advanced centrifuges," he said.

"On the contrary. The deal would legitimize Iran's illegal nuclear program. It would leave Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure. A vast nuclear infrastructure remains in place."

There is absolutely no ambiguity in those comments.

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Agreement w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A framework for an agreement was announced.

I did not think it was going to happen. And yet, it did. As I read the agreement - or, more accurately, what information we are being spoon fed about the agreement, it seems that the Iranians agreed to many US demands. It seems they agreed to the ten year and fifteen year waiting period and agreed not to develop nuclear technology during that period of time.

The only better agreement would have been to totally prevent all nuclear activity and the US and the Iranians were never going to do that.

There are big issues with the fifteen year deal.

What happens after fifteen years?

And what happens to the site called Furdow where we have been told thousands of centrifuges are housed. There have been few proper inspections there. Furdow is buried 90 yards under solid rock and cement. It is built into and under a mountain.

And what happens when this agreement is not fulfilled. Iran has never been forthcoming in their negotiations and there is no reason why this should be the exception.

Furdow will not be shut down. It is supposed to be transformed into a center for nuclear physics. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif plainly explained that this center would neither dismantle nor destroy the already existing centrifuges.

There could have been far worse agreements. The real issue here is how to make this agreement work and how to fill in the holes.

Meanwhile, Obama has called Netanyahu and the US National Security team is en route to Jerusalem to brief the Israeli PM and to offer him a slew of gifts.

The hope is that over the next ten - fifteen years there will be regime change in Iran.
To be continued.

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Company Won't Insure Jewish Kindergarten
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

An insurance company has refused to insure a Jewish kindergarten in Brussels.

The insurance company said that, given all the anti-Semitism that has been flaring up throughout Europe, the risk in insuring a Jewish kindergarten is too high.

The kindergarten has a solid steel door and a 6 digit security code.

Every school in the Western world needs to have insurance. Every nation and every state and every district and every city has that law. Schools often shop around for the best deal. And when risks increase, so too do premiums and costs.

But here the premise is very different. In this case, the insurance company has said that they will simply not carry the risk. There is no premium high enough to insure a Jewish kindergarten, they say.
That notion, I say, is simply not correct.

But even this insurance company prevails, even if no company is willing to insure the Jewish kindergarten, there is an alternative.

In that case, the government or a multi-governmental agency should step forward and promise to cover the risk.

That is what often happens in the aftermath of a terror attack.
Places and people are almost always underinsured and the government steps in to protect them.

Shame on that Belgian insurance company.

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US Resume Military Aid to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the White House released military aid to Egypt.

The aid was suspended in 2013 when al Sisi took the reins of power by ousting Morsi, the man elected president with the help of the Muslim Brotherhood.

US law does not permit aid to a government installed by a coup. But since the events of 2013 there has been an election in Egypt and the White House is now satisfied that al Sisi is indeed an elected leader.

As an aside -- although military aid was suspended, the United States continued to give Egypt hundreds of millions of anti-terror aid. Anti-terror aid does not have the same restrictions as military aid.

The aid package now comes to $1.3 billion annually.

Materials immediately being sent to Egypt from the US include12 F-16s, 20 missiles and 125 tank kits

This aid will help Egypt as it works together with Saudi Arabia and valiantly attempts to create a multi-national Arab force to combat Islamic extremism in the region.

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Arabs Bomb Houthi in Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 31, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

If you think only the Saudis were acting against the Houthi in Yemen, you are wrong. Saudi Arabia has put together a group of at least 10 other Arab nations working side by side with them against them Houthi.

The Arabic press - including the Egyptian press, is reporting that all Yemeni ports are under the control of the Arab coalition.

The press also reported that Egyptian naval forces bombarded the Houthi from the sea in the area of Aden.

This combined effort against the Houthi in Yemen is a very important step towards creating a United Arab front against Islamic radicals - a group that is growing both in force and weaponry.

The idea of a United Arab force was agreed upon at two Arab League meetings. At the meetings the idea was agreed upon in principle, but the details were very sketchy. This set of naval actions moves the principle toward the practical.

The mistake, however, is to think that this force and this action will eradicate the Houthi. The plan, as it now stands, is to bring the Houthi to the table, not to wipe them out.

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Cyber Hackers to Attack Israel April 7
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The secret cyber group Anonymous announced that they will attack Israel on April 7, 2015.

The video the group released said that they will create a "cyber Holocaust" for Israel. That they will do what they have done in the past and it will bring Israelis to their knees in revenge for all the horrific acts that Israel perpetrated against the Palestinians.

Now, why April 7?

It all started in 2013. April 7, 2013 was Holocaust Memorial Day. And that was the day of the first Anonymous attack on Israel.

But still, why did they choose that day? Why Holocaust Memorial Day?

Holocaust Memorial Day is a day when every person should reach deep inside and realize the depths to which humanity sank during WWII when humans created a mechanism to murder 6 million Jews.

Selecting that day as the day to strike is warped and misguided. And that is what Anonymous is – warped and misguided.

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Arabs to Unite Against Islamic Extremists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League Summit wrapped up in Sharm el Sheik earlier today.

As I predicted three weeks ago, the end result of the Summit was a decision to move ahead on a mutli- nation force to confront ISIS and other Islamic extremist forces overtaking the region - like the Houthi in Yemen and extremists in Libya.

Saudi Arabia has already, successfully, put together a ten nation group that is acting against the Houthi in Yemen.

Al Sisi of Egypt concluded the Summit by saying that it is essential to unite because the threats to the region are too great for any nation to fight alone. His assumption is that it will still take several months to work out the details of sharing power.

In the past, these attempts by the Arab League to work harmoniously have failed. But today the strength of ISIS coupled with the crumbling and disintegration of Libya, Yemen, and Iraq, countries where Islamic extremists stepped in with only a few hundred fighters and took over, is reason to worry that the entire region is at risk.

The Summit viewed the entire move of the Houthi in Yemen, a move that was sponsored and supported by Iran, as an attempt to create a proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Iranians are supporting and arming the Houthi. Saudi Arabia and her allies are confronting the Houthi.

The big question is where the United States is in all of this? The US had the intel and the background, but they made the conscious decision not to confront, not to irritate, not to bother the Iranians.

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Yemen & the Remaining Jews
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yemen is imploding. Shiite Houthi has run the Yemeni government and leadership out of their own country. Sana, the capital city, and most other cities, are in Houthi hands.

The Houthi are Islamic extremists.

And what about the Jewish community that still lives in Yemen? The community today numbers about 100 Jews. In 1959 there were 60,000 Jews living in Yemen.

Today about 76 of the Jews of Yemen live in the capital, Sana. The others are scattered in other cities around the country.

Over the years a relationship developed between the Jewish community and the Arab community of Yemen. Recently, especially since September when some very ugly acts were perpetrated by the Islamists, the Jewish community began to live in fear. They are in fear not only of the Houthi but also of their once friendly neighbors. The Jews of Yemen are worried about their safety and security.

Yemen once had a strong and very proud community of Jews - rich in tradition and heritage. Those Jews who chose to remain did so because they felt comfortable and at home. They stayed despite having opportunities to leave.

Now their safety is in the balance.

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US Ignored Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

How did the U.S. not see what was happening in Yemen? Why did the US not prevent Yemen from failing to the Houthi?

This was a huge regional blunder.

The answer is that the US made elementary mistakes.

The United States had all the intelligence and all the info. They just did not perceive of the Houthi as a power that could and would take over not just Sana, the capital, but the entire country.

The U.S. thought the Houthi were weak and disorganized. They saw them just like they saw ISIS.

The attention of the United States was focused on confronting al Qaeda of Yemen. The Houthi were, quite literally, left alone.

Another reason the US left the Houthi alone is because they are sponsored and supported by Iran. The U.S. did not want to disturb or irritate Iran and jeopardize their very sensitive nuclear talks.

Now Saudi Arabia has begun the task of confronting the Houthi. The Saudis cannot have an extremist Islamic group spilling over across their border.

The U.S. has dozens of drones flying and relaying Houthi movements to the Saudi Air Force. Also joining Saudi Arabia in their air strikes are the Jordanian Air Force and the Egyptian Air Force.

The United States did nothing as Yemen fell. Now they are providing only intelligence.

This is a colossal failure on the part of the United States. Even bigger than Libya.

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Saudi to Intervene in Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like Saudi Arabia is getting closer to intervening in Yemen.

The Houthi are taking over more and more of the country and anarchy is reigning. And so, the Saudis are amassing more and more troops on their border with Yemen.

On Monday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al- Faisal said that if the anarchy is not solved quickly and peacefully the Gulf States will take "necessary measures" to protect the region from the "aggression of the Houthi" and their allies --- who are the Iranian backed forces.
Yemen is in tatters. Violence and destruction is ravaging the country. There is no rule of law.

Saudi Arabia cannot let this violence spill over.

The violence is fueled by Islamic rejection of current leadership.

The Houthis reject both the monarchy and democracy. They reject all forms of government except for a caliphate, which is a government run by a religious authority. That authority is their version of Shariyah (Islamic) law.

Time is running out for Yemen.

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PA PM to Visit Gaza Tomorrow
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

We need to watch internal moves and machinations within the Arab world. We need to see how and if situations change, to know if progress is made and to understand in what directions the Arab world is moving.

When I discovered that Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah will not only visit the Gaza Strip on Wednesday but that he will also spend several days there, I was very interested in knowing the why and how of this visit.

This is the second trip of Hamdallah to Gaza.
Gaza is controlled by Hamas and there is great tension between the Palestinian Authority and Gazans.

It looks like they are now trying to mend fences. I would probably guess that the fence mending has to do with resources - especially electricity and the donor funds that are supposed to pour into Gaza.

I would also guess that in Gaza, Hamas and the PA will also be talking about Iran, about ISIS and about Israel under Bibi.

The biggest question they have, their biggest conundrum, will be how to engage with the United States and either meet or divert the expectations that the West has set for the Palestinian of Gaza and the PA.

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Enough Bickering from the White House
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Enough -- I have heard enough about Bibi Netanyahu saying that he now rejects the two state solution. And enough about how the United States now needs to re-evaluate their relationship with Israel.

The statement made by the prime minister of Israel was not a rejection of the two state solution. It was simply a continuation of statements the prime minister has always been making. There does not seem to be a partner for peace on the Palestinian side of the negotiating table. And until there is a partner, there will be no peace.

Netanyahu has been saying this for three years.

The White House has now become afflicted with selective hearing. When they only hear what they want to hear, entire scenarios become skewed.

There is no convincing way to explain what is happening in the White House and its relationship with Israel. The only person who can adequately explain what is happening is the president himself.

The White House is really not very interested in what was said and why. They are only interested in exacting a penalty - a tax on Israel for not toeing the line. This behavior is called "disciplining" in Washington speak. The White house is using discipline in an effort to control Israel and rein in Netanyahu.

This is not an isolated incident. The White House will continue to discipline Israel. Get used to it.

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Obama & Bibi Sound like Teen age Boys
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes the people involved in international relations need to rely more heavily on the tools needed to manage adolescent behavior and conflicts than one would imagine. Mediating between presidents, prime ministers and diplomats is very much like dealing with full blown adolescence.

The recent chastisement of Israel by the White House is a perfect example.

It sounded like 15 year old kids playing a game of "dare", albeit with much higher stakes. Like kids who say things they should not be saying just to get a rise out of the other side.

This was more or less the tone of the White House statement:
"We are thinking of withdrawing our cover for Israel at the UN."
Many people were livid that this sentiment, even in an unattributed statement, would be expressed.

The media grabbed it.

Republicans went berserk.

In the end, it will never happen. It is a ploy. It is all about the reaction it will illicit. It is so adolescent.

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Media Tried to Defeat Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I have been asserting that the media was biased against Netanyahu.
That the media used its power of communication to influence voters to cast their ballots not for someone, but against Bibi.

Ten days before the election, one of the leading papers in Israel ran an expose on Prime Minister Netanyahu. This newspaper and its very popular website made it very clear that they do not like the sitting prime minister.

News should be news - and it should be objective.

The expose was framed as a news item but the timing of its publication made the agenda very clear. The story is still running on the web site. I ask you, how many stories stay up on the internet for two weeks - the internet where news changes every few seconds.

The expose was written by Nahum Barnea, an excellent commentator and analyst with extremely good contacts and reliable sources. Barnea listed all the concessions Netanyahu was prepared to make with the Palestinians. He wrote about secret negotiations that took place between Israel and the Palestinians in London.

Ultimately, according to the expose, Netanyahu was ready to give up on almost everything in order to get a deal.

This information could have killed any chance Bibi had of winning the election. Obviously, as we all now know, it did not ruin his chances. Any why not? Because the expose was deemed, by readers as well as by other media outlets, as interesting but not germane to the business at hand.

The article challenged the right wing bona fides of Netanyahu. How could he be a rightist leader if he was willing to capitulate on so much. The implication was that if you are a right winger you should not vote for Bibi and Likud --- you should instead vote for a marginal small party.

If that had happened, if that advice had been followed, Likud would not have received the votes it got or the seats it has or the royal crown worn by the winner.

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Bibi Wins & Why!
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There are several important lessons to be learned from this Israeli election.

First has to do with polling and coverage.

A man from Mars watching the coverage leading up to the election would have been convinced that Netanyahu and his Likud party --- in fact, the entire nationalist camp would be trounced.

But that did not happen.

For three months the Israeli media painted a portrait of a Bibi Netanyahu as a loser. In the final weeks before the election, many media outlets here in the United States jumped on that bandwagon. Not only was he not ousted, he came out a winner, much as he predicted for himself three months ago when he called for new elections.

It was not really analysis, it was wishful thinking. It was a prophecy that many pundits wanted to see fulfilled.

Next was the belief that the vast majority of Israeli voters are in the center - perhaps center right, or perhaps center left, but somewhere in that wide center swatch . And the largest block of voters, it was believed, was center right.

That belief is correct. That's the way it up until this election and that is what we are seeing post this election.

We were told that Israel needs change. We were told that all Israelis want change. And yet, the only real change to emerge from this election is that the political power of extremists on the right and left was severely diminished. Other than that, little has changed

The results we have today will not be the results we have tomorrow. The final breakdown will still change. Ah! Finally, a change! But the big winners will remain the big winners. Old time Likud and the new party on the block, Kulanu, led by Moshe Kahlon, which garnered 10 or 11 seats will be the big players come coalition building time.

The fun and games of campaigning are over. Now comes the real work. Building a government, or, in this case, cobbling together a coalition that will be willing and able to govern.

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Saudis Want What Iran Gets
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Today is election day in Israel. The vote is still up in the air so I will not write about it - for now. But I know that these election results and their aftermath will be dominating my writing for the
next few weeks.

And, as it turns out, there really are other noteworthy events taking place in the world right now.

For instance, a very senior Saudi prince announced that a deal between the West and Iran will spark a Middle East nuclear arms and technology race.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to DC and London as well as the former head of Saudi intelligence, said: "I've always said whatever comes out of these talks, we will want the same." He made this statement, almost a declaration, in a BBC interview that aired on Monday.

The point al-Faisal is making is quite clear. If Iran gets any nuclear technology, Saudi Arabia will demand and quickly get it also.

The delicate balance of power will be upset if Iran gets such technology. Other Gulf States will follow Saudi Arabia's lead.

This is an important variable and it deserves serious consideration.

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Elections in Israel are Tomorrow
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Tomorrow is election day in Israel. This election will be a real nail biter.

Israeli media analysis is hard to trust because the bias of each media outlet is so obvious. The polls are difficult to discern.

But come what may, one thing is for sure --- there will be a winner and a loser come Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Real questions emerge: Israel went to early elections. It was Netanyahu who agreed to dissolve the government and go to those early elections. Why did he do it?

Netanyahu called for new, early, elections thinking that he was a shoe in. So what happened over the past three months to transform a sure deal into a race that is way too close to call?

Most importantly, elections make people contemplate change. Elections make people question whether their situation could be better. Whether their country has more to offer them. And that is exactly the campaign that the opposition ran on.

Do you want four more years of Bibi and for more years of this? The opposition did not even need to offer voters a real platform. That was only officially published late last week.

Ahh, the beauty of elections and the nature of the polity. Voters can and will be fickle. And that is exactly what we are seeing in this Israeli election. Stay tuned.

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Egypt & Saudi Arabia Conflict about the Brotherhood
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has fired 41 judges who have been supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The leadership of Egypt sees the Brotherhood as a direct threat.

The Muslim Brotherhood is the founding influence of Hamas. And since its inception, the Brotherhood has been challenging traditional Egyptian leadership -with the exception of the year that Brotherhood was in power, under Morsi.

Egyptian tension over the Muslim Brotherhood is the major bone of contention between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia does not see the Brotherhood as a major threat and certainly not at the level that Egypt sees it.

In Egypt, the Brotherhood plots and perpetrates attacks almost every day. The Brotherhood is aligning with ISIS and the result has been a slew of even more brutal murderous attacks.

Egypt understands how dangerous the Brotherhood is. But Saudi Arabia is not convinced. The new king of Saudi Arabia does not feel that he should be funding a campaign to stymie and stifle the Brotherhood.

This is but one example of serious tensions emerging in the Middle East. Tensions between the most populated Arab country - Egypt, and the richest Arab country, Saudi Arabia.

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Media Bent on Bibi's Fall
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Elections in Israel are around the corner. You can literally count the hours.

Polls are coming in and all the campaigns are in full stride as they come into the final stretch.

In the US we speak about an October surprise - some last minute out of control issue that takes place that can alter the nature of the vote. In the US it takes place somewhere in the last six weeks before ballots are cast.

In Israel the October surprise can take place the morning of the election. There are many factors that determine how Israelis vote. Of the two biggest determining factors, one is economics, the other is security.

At this point if the economy, housing and jobs are the main issue then the Zionist Unity camp will win hands down. However, if it is a question of security then Likud has a strong chance of winning.

The newspapers seem bent on defeating Bibi.

To give an example --- In today's Yediot the image that ran with the article on the latest news polls has a picture of most of the candidates crowded together in a row. In the middle looking straight ahead, space on both sides of his picture, is the leader of the center left, Yaakov Herzog. Four people away to the right, second form the end, is Netanyahu. That position on the other side was given to Meretz leader, Zahava Galon, a party that may not even break the Knesset threshold.

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Iraqi Atrocites May Lead to Loss of US Aid
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There have been reports that the Iraqi army has perpetrated war crimes parallel to those of ISIS.

There are reports of massacres, torture, brutal beatings, public executions and decapitations. There are even reports of soldiers walking around with severed heads.

The problem that emerges from this is that these Iraqi troops were trained by the United States and they are using US weapons. US money and training cannot be used to in such ways.

ABC reported on this situation and it is now being investigated by Congress. If Congress discovers that atrocities were carried out by members of the Iraqi army that would put in question all US aid and all US assistance - not just to Iraq.

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Israel Elections Roller-Coaster
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

In less than a week Israelis will run to the polls.

I use the word poll for a reason. The only poll that actually counts is the election poll itself. Understand that and you will have an easier time riding the roller-coaster of Israeli elections.

Over the next few days elections will be in high gear. Final public polls will be published. This party will be up and that party will be down.

A very wise person once explained the entire polling system to me in a very logical and compelling way. She said "polls don't lie --- people lie."

That is so true. People tell the pollster what they believe the popular line is at that moment in an effort to be politically correct. In the privacy of the ballot booth, however, they do as their conscience dictates.

In Israel an election can be swayed by a last minute surprise issue. Is defense and Iran more important than social issues like housing?
It is if that is the tone set on election morning.

There is no way of predicting how close this election will be, no way to know which party will win, which person will lead his party to victory.

The next few days promise to be very interesting. If people claim that they can predict the results of this election, think of them not as analysts, think of them as wishful thinkers.

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Arab League Against ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League has called for a united front and an organized force to fight and eradicate ISIS and al Qaeda in Yemen.

At a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers, Secretary General Nabil el-Araby called for action against ISIS.

"What is required now and urgently is to look into creating a...multi-national force that is able to look at what unites them in terms of responsibilities in the areas of quick intervention to fight terrorism, the activities of terrorist groups, helping in peacekeeping operations and securing humanitarian operations."

This is another important step in organizing the Arab world against ISIS and al Qaeda.

The Arab League will meet again in another few weeks in Sharm el Shiek, and there, they are hoping to add some flesh to this initial bare bones idea.

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US Bombs ISIS Oil Refinery
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Thirty ISIS members were killed in a single air strike in Syria yesterday, just on the Turkish border.

The US coalition hit an ISIS oil refinery. Oil has been one of the key ways that ISIS bankrolls its operation.

Until now the US coalition has been reluctant to strike the fields or the refineries. They steered clear because the West wants to preserve the infrastructure - especially natural resources and income producing infrastructure.

The idea is to have a turnkey income and operation as soon as the good guys take over. This policy is in place so that there is no need to rebuild. Then the new, controlling, power can have immediate income.

The situation with ISIS is getting ridiculous.

ISIS keeps making money. There is no timeline for a reduction of their power and control of the oil fields or of oil refinement and production. ISIS just keeps going on and on.

Even the loss of thirty fighters does not set them back at all.

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Boko Haram & ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yes, Boko Haram pledged loyalty to ISIS.

This should come as no surprise.

The broadcast came in Arabic announcing that the Nigerian group is now fighting together with ISIS and supports Baghdadi as the Caliph, or general leader, over all of Islam.

"We announce our allegiance to the Caliph ... and will hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity." The pledge of allegiance was attributed to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau.

Boko Haram is a Nigerian based terror group that has been terrorizing and fighting in Nigeria for several years. Their name says everything. Boku means book in their Nigerian dialect and Haram means forbidden.

Boku Haram means "Books are Forbidden." It is a major attack against women's learning. The entire purpose and name of the groups is to stop the education of women.

In the year 2015 - WOW!

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ISIS Destroying Archeological Cities
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Iraqi ministry of tourism and antiquities announced on their facebook page that ISIS was destroying archeological sites.

ISIS destroyed the ancient archaeological site Nimrud also known as the biblical city of Nimrod named after the character from Genesis 10.

Nimrud was one of the capitals of the Assyrian Empire. It was there that Sannacherib built his palace. In the ancient world there was always movement from Nimrud to Nineveh which is less than miles away. They were like sister cities.

Nineveh is the famous biblical city found in the book of Jonah.

ISIS destroyed Nineveh just last year and now they have destroyed Nimrud. According to the Iraqi government ISIS bulldozed the site.

This is such an amazing site that major sections of the site were moved to London to be housed in the British Museum where they have been since the 1840's.

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Kerry in Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry, is in Saudi Arabia to discuss Iran and ISIS.

Kerry arrived in Saudi Arabia after three days of nuclear talks or, to put it more accurately, three days of negotiations with Iran.
Kerry said that there are still very large gaps between the parties.
Over and over again we see that Iran really understands the United States.

The Iranians know that the Obama administration really wants a deal. They want something on paper. It does not matter much if it is a good deal or a bad deal.

The Israelis, however, are saying that a bad deal means that they will be destroyed.

The United States does not feel the same way, the administration is not moved by that statement.

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Why Critique the Bibi Speech
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 4 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I am shocked by responses to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech.

So much so that I am, jokingly, wondering if I missed the parts of the speech that everyone is critiquing. And to know me is to know that I missed nothing. I am not just talking about Pelosi saying she was insulted or Obama saying there was nothing new. That I expected.

The purpose of the speech Netanyahu gave was not to divulge new material - actually that is why he said you could Google all the info anyway. The Israeli prime minister has often been criticized for leaking details so he was deliberately not going to do that again, before the entire world and announce state secrets. Doing that is illegal both under Israeli and United States law.

Interestingly, Al Arabiyah had a very positive column saying how on target Netanyahu was. Their report was that the prime minister of Israel described the Iranian threat perfectly. And Palestinian President Abbas said that Bibi accurately described the explosive nature of the Middle East.

His message has not changed in over a decade. It is the same threat - it is just becoming more threatening.

The speech was not supposed to change people's minds. The purpose of the Netanyahu speech before Congress was to remind people of the danger, the very grave danger, posed by Iran and to explain why there is a difference between the US point of view and the Israeli point of view.

And in that, Netanyahu succeeded.

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Obama vs Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama has responded to Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to AIPAC in anticipation of his speech to Congress.
Obama described the difference between the two sides.

Obama is telling us that Bibi is exaggerating, that he is painting an unrealistic portrait of the situation. Obama said that sanctions have not worked.

His new plan is, in Obama's eyes, the only hope for stopping Iran.
He also says that the entire episode, the brouhaha over Netanyahu's coming to address Congress, is simply a distraction and not permanently destructive.

Obama says: "why not wait if there is a going to be a deal" and see whether or not Iran will actually accept a deal. "Why will we not take a deal?" "There is no good reason not to let the negotiations play themselves out."

The space that separates the Prime Minister and the President is enormous.

The difference comes down to this: do we trust the Iranians or do we not trust the Iranians.

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Sisi Visits Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

With all eyes on Bibi Netanyahu and his trip to Washington DC, other important stories from the Middle East are going almost unnoticed.

Yesterday President al Sisi of Egypt visited Salman, the new king of Saudi Arabia. This visit follows only days after the King of Jordan made the same trip to Saudi Arabia.

The Egyptian / Saudi conversation was very straight forward. These two heads of state see things eye to eye. Egypt wanted to make certain that the new king continues to support him politically and monetarily. And both countries needed to make certain that they share info and intel on terror and Islamic extremists.

I think that they probably decided to create a joint force between their two countries to confront the new challenge from ISIS in Iraq Syria and to control the new tensions emerging from Libya and Yemen.

Salman and al SIsi need to work well together. What they do and say will have tremendous impact on the rest of the Arab world. They can convey a sense of stability - or not.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the two most powerful of all Arab countries. Saudi Arabia is the richest, Egypt is the most populous. They have clout.

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White House Will Exact Revenge on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The White House can be very vindictive. They do not take kindly to being publicly humiliated or chastised.

The Administration responds according to its own timetable and in their own way.

So YES, expect that Israel will have an expensive price to pay because Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be speaking before a joint session of Congress.

There are several tools the White House has immediately at their fingertips.

They can simply drag their feet on requests from Israel - requests for aid, for intel for experts or advice.

They can cut the requests out and trim aid packages.

They can close doors that had been open and not provide info and intelligence about terror threats and movements as well as about Iran.

They can give a cold shoulder to Israeli politicians and diplomats who need to confer with their US counterparts.

When the White House wants to teach Israel a lesson, there are many ways to do it. And right now, the White House wants Israel to know that antics like this one cannot go on without a serious response.

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Iran Hacks Casinos
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Clapper confirmed that Iran hacked Sheldon Adelson's computer system at the Sands Casino Corporation.

Casino computers were non-functioning for several hours.
Adelson is a huge republican supporter and a very big donor to Israel. Actually, he is one of the largest contributors to Israel in the world.

A cyber attack against his hotel, the Sands Casino, is a major attack against a US company. Put this attack together with the North Korean attack on Sony and we see that nations are searching out and striking at US commercial interests - not just at military or governmental interests.

Iran is has become a real powerhouse in cyber hacking. They are certainly in the top ten and maybe even in the top 5 in the world of hacking. The United States, Russia, China, Israel, are the other nations in that league.

When it comes to cyber warfare, I ran is a force to be reckoned with. Beware of more Iranian hacks.

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New ISIS Video
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The newest ISIS video is five minutes long and it shows members destroying ancient archeological treasures. The video was shot in the Mosul museum. Bearded men with drills and sledge hammers are seen destroying priceless antiquities.

In five minutes we learn exactly what ISIS thinks of ancient history and of other cultures. This is their portrayal of themselves - not someone else with their own biases, analysis or interpretation. ISIS wants everyone to understand that they reject history and culture.

An essential and fascinating side bar to this is that a significant percentage of the ISIS annual budget comes from the sale of antiquities. It is unclear exactly the sum that ISIS earns. But it is certainly in the 10's of millions. Collectors have commissioned their intermediaries to negotiate with ISIS on archeological relics.

It is ironic that, on the one hand, ISIS hates these pagan symbols and destroys them. And on the other hand, they are unearthing new finds and raiding museums and sites to capitalize on the monetary benefit of the pieces.

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Kings Meet
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday The King of Jordan travelled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to meet their new king, King Salman.

This is an extremely important meeting. Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia are part of the coalition against ISIS. Both have strong relations with the United States.

More than anything else, both monarchies are in the cross hairs of
ISIS. Both know that ISIS wants to take over their kingdoms. And both kings know that there are already individual people and organized groups inside each of their countries who are affiliated with ISIS and with al Qaeda.

I would bet that these two kings agreed to increase their cooperation against ISIS even outside the coalition and to step up and strike ISIS and al Qaeda and to support one another and share information.

Fighting ISIS is a battle of survival. Abdullah and Salman know that very well. In order for their reigns to survive they must defeat ISIS.

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Spain Breaks Up ISIS Recruitment Ring
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

As part of an ongoing attempt to crack down on ISIS recruitment at its roots, Spain arrested a recruitment ring on Tuesday.
The ring was dedicated to recruiting young women into ISIS. Four
recruiters were arrested and all of them were women.

This is a huge success - but it is still only the tip of the iceberg.
Europe needs to find these recruiters and the websites they use as recruitment tools. The stakes here are very high.

It is not simply that recruits go off and fight for ISIS in Syria and Iraq. It is that they return home with training and the motivation to strike targets in Europe - and there is almost no defense against them.

In the long run, the best way to protect the homeland is to make certain recruits never get recruited. This is not about economic and social issues - an improvement in those areas will not change the minds of highly motivated would-be recruits.

The only way to prevent local Europeans, or Americans or Asians for that matter, from running into the arms of ISIS is to arrest them.
And then shut down the systems of broadcast that they found so enticing

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Will Egypt Attack Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 24, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I was not surprised to see a piece in the Hebrew press about Gaza and Egypt.

Salah Bardawil, a senior figure of Hamas in Gaza, was quoted as showing real concern that Egypt might launch attacks in Gaza after it recently bombed ISIS targets in Libya.

There is no doubt that Egypt is thinking about crossing their border and entering Gaza and using helicopter gunships and fighter jets to strike targets responsible for terror attacks in Egypt that were planned and supported and inspired in Gaza.

At this moment Egypt might cross into Gaza while in hot pursuit. But as of now I do not think it probable that Egypt will strike Gaza in any way.

But as the situation is in flux , Egypt might feel the need to strike Gaza to emphasize the point that they must control their terrorists.

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ISIS Is Not Hurting
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Reuters recently ran an insightful piece about how Europe is beginning to crack down and stem the flow of Europeans into ISIS.

New laws preventing citizens suspected of interacting with ISIS from returning home and the seizing of travel documents of anyone suspected of ISIS activity are now in effect. It is an attempt to strangle the constant stream of European recruits into ISIS.
ISIS has responded by saying that now, most of their recruits are no longer coming from Europe.

"Now most of the (foreign) fighters are coming from Asian countries, like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. They are tough fighters," said an official who was quoted by Reuters.

Another official said that at first people did not take ISIS and their recruits seriously. That was a big mistake. He said, "At first these countries took us lightly, they thought the fighters will come here and die. But what they did not see coming was that they get trained and also started to contact their friends and relatives to join."

It is true that recruits are flocking to ISIS from all over the world and especially from the Far East. There has also been an influx of recruits from Libya and Egypt.

ISIS is not suffering for lack of money or manpower.

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Turkey Launches Raid into Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There have been reports that ISIS has moved significant numbers of fighters into Turkey. The fighters are in Turkey as sleepers and they will strike when ready.

At the same time, Turkey has been guarding the tomb of its founder's grandfather, Suleiman Shah, which is located in Syria about 25 miles from the Turkish border. The tomb is in Kobani in the Aleppo province and has been the site of huge battles between ISIS and the Kurds as well as the target of airstrikes by the United States and her coalition partners.

Forty five Turkish soldiers protect the tomb.

Last night Turkey launched an operation to transfer the tomb into Turkey. One soldier was killed in the action. The Turks say that the death was not a result of fighting or of defending the tomb, but an accident that took place during the night time move.

Despite Turkey's reluctance we are going to see many more operations by Turkey and Jordan into Syria and Iraq.

Turkey and Jordan will be the boots of the coalition on the ground.

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3 London Girls Run Away to ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

London police and airport police are trying to figure out how three teenage girls boarded a plane at Gatwick, one of the two international airlines servicing London, en route to Turkey to join the fight for ISIS.

The girls never told their parents of their plans.

All three girls lived in East London. They boarded a Turkish Air flight to Istanbul. From there the trail runs cold, but it is assumed that their recruiters arranged for a pickup at the airport and from there they made their way across the Syrian border.

London is hoping to reach out to concerned people in the region of Turkey and Syria to give them information about the girls. Then they will try to reach out and convince the teenagers to return home.

Of course this is a total hoax.

A recently released report tells us ISIS executed 125 Europeans and other foreign fighters who wanted to return to their homes.

Whatever these girls are thinking, whatever they were hoping for, they are in for a very rude awakening.

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Islam is Not Like Christianity
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I have been paying very close attention to the speeches he has made and the statements he has given and I now understand how President Obama has come to his conclusions about violent extremism.
President Obama, like many other Americans, thinks that Islam is a religion like Christianity.

Islam is a religion like Judaism, Islam is not at all like Christianity.

Christianity is a faith based religion. Belief is everything. And belief is the emphasis in what is called Pauline Christianity. Paul ridiculed the Jews for adhering to precepts and laws.

Islam, like Judaism, has essential beliefs but their world revolves around a set of laws. Their world revolves around codes of behavior and those codes dictate actions.

In Arabic there is no real word for "religion." The most commonly used word is "din." Din means to comply with Sharia law. It is also used to describe Christians prayer. The word comes from the Zoroastrian Persian.

Interestingly, in Hebrew, too, the word din means law and for the very same reason. Like in Arabic, there is no Hebrew word for religion. Hebrew borrows a different word from Persian to describe religion, that word is "dat."

Islam cannot be compared to Christianity at all. There is no such thing as the secular in Islam. One cannot even say hello or goodbye in proper Arabic or respond to any greeting without invoking the name of Allah.

The West needs to understand this.

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New Stuxnet Worm Attacking Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Kaspersky, the Russian cyber security firm, announced that a new set of malware and worms are spreading. The new malicious software is infecting computers in the Middle East - especially in Iran.

Kaspersky says that this set of malware and worms is very similar to Stuxnet.

Several years ago Stuxnet was one of the most vicious worms to invade Iran. It took over their nuclear program and infected almost all computers connected to the development of nuclear technology.

A spokeswoman for Iran said about this latest danger: "The Islamic Republic of Iran pays great attention to this matter because we are one of the targets of (cyber) espionage."

The word on the street is that Israel and the United States have been guilty of creating several waves of these computer viruses. Stuxnet is, according to these rumors, just one example.

We are now entering another stage. It remains to be seen who becomes infected and who spread the virus.


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Help ISIS by Getting them A Job
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

At first, I believed State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf's interview with Chris Matthews on MSNBC to be too inane to be taken seriously. Now, on further reflection - and given the fact that there has been no back peddling by the Administration, I realize how serious she really was.

In response to questions about ISIS and whether the Administation has a plan for dealing with ISIS, Harf responded:

"We cannot win this war by killing them. We cannot kill our way out of this war," Harf said. "We need, in the longer term - medium and longer term - to go after the root causes that lead people to join these groups - whether it's lack of opportunity for jobs."
"We can work with other countries around the world to help improve their governance," Harf said. "We can help them build their economies so they can have job opportunities for these people.

Many members of the press skewered Harf. Her responses were anything but realistic. They gave a sense that Washington has no idea of what ISIS really is or how to deal with them.

And yet, I still expected that someone in the inner circles of Washington would have the presence of mind to stand up and say that simply getting a better economy will not change ISIS' POV.

Bottom line: I was not shocked by the comments made by Marie Harf nor by the way the press ridiculed her. I was shocked that the Administration has not clarified the points Harf made in her name.

That means they agree. And that is truly frightening, because no amount of leadership training or economic development will transform ISIS. No amount. Not ever.

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Germany Tries 93 Yr Old for Holocaust
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

In Germany yesterday a 93 year old was indicted on 170,000 counts of accessory to murder. His name has not been released.

The history is clear. The man was a German guard in the horrific
Nazi death camp Auschwitz which is situated in Southern Poland.
Interestingly, the man does not deny being an Auschwitz guard. His defense is that he was stationed in the camp known as Auschwitz I.

The prosecution agrees. However, they also say that this man, despite being stationed in Auschwitz I, was integrally connected to the selection process which took place at Auschwitz II aka, the infamous Birkenau.

Selection took place immediately upon arrival in Auschwitz II. That is when and where Jews were directed to life or death.

The massive Nazi murder machine with all of its apparatus was in Birkenau - but it was still a part of Auschwitz, as were dozens of smaller camps.

Claiming that he was in one camp instead of another is hardly a defense. Auschwitz was the nerve center of the labyrinth of camps.

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France Arrests 5 Boys for Destroying 300 Graves
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 16, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

In France, five teenage boys were arrested for destroying 300 Jewish graves and the Holocaust memorial in a cemetery in the Alsace region.

The country was shocked by the blatant horrific act of anti-Semitism. Leaders and media decried the vandalism as barbaric and anti-French. They called it an assault on all of France.

The response of his countrymen had an impact on the youngest of the vandals. He told a friend what he had done and the friend urged him to come forward and admit to his crime.

Prosecutors say the boys claim there was no reason for their acts of vandalism or no anti- Semitic motive behind it. This is very hard to believe given the extent of the destruction. 300 graves plus a memorial. The graves included a substantial number of mausoleums.

It takes significant force and energy to destroy these buildings.
This was not a simple boyhood prank.

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Terror in Denmark
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 15, 2015

I've been thinking:

Details are still scant. But what we do know for sure is that two terror attacks were perpetrated in Copenhagen, Denmark. One attack was at a solidarity meeting for freedom of speech. The other attack was perpetrated at a synagogue where a bar mitzvah was taking place.

Two police were wounded outside the synagogue and the Israeli/Danish security guard at the synagogue was killed. One person, a Danish filmmaker, was killed at the solidarity event and three police were wounded.

The Prime Minister of Denmark labeled both the attacks terror. There is no question about it, she said "they were politically motivated and so we consider them as terror."

Denmark has about 5.5 million citizens and about 7,000 of them are Jews. Almost every Jew is totally integrated into the social fabric of Danish society and has been for decades.

There is even an urban legend that during the Holocaust the king of Denmark wore a Jewish star. Not true, but he did find and organize the escape of 8,000 Jews across the sea to Sweden.

Denmark is a place where Jews felt safe. All that might have changed overnight.

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France Arrests ISIS Recruiters
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

France arrested six people this week for recruiting and raising money to support terror.

They were charged with the preparation of terrorist attacks and terrorist financing. The prosecutors say that the six were recruiting fighters to join ISIS and to fight in Syria.

The six are being held without bail.

This is a significant change for France and it is a very important step. The French need to continue to try to stop the terror at the point of its origins and on the organizational level.

France must be aggressive in fighting their terrorists and their legal system, especially the investigation and the prosecution side of the law, needs to expand in order to best clamp down on this new wave of terror.

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Turkey Israel Trade-- $5.6 Billion
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

I just read a spectacular piece on "The Media Line" website showing that despite terrible diplomatic and political tensions and even crises between Turkey and Israel - their foreign trade is impressive.

Foreign trade between Turkey and Israel was $5.6 billion last year.
Half it imports, half of it exports.

Many of the Japanese cars being drive all over Israel are actually made in Turkey. The fresh fruit and dried fruits that Israelis love so much - much of that, too, is imported from Turkey.

Turkey is still Israel's 7th largest trading partner. The bulk of exports from Israel to Turkey are chemical and technical supplies.
In years past, especially in the 1990's, Israel exported weapons and contacts to train, repair and improve and even swap Turkish weapons.

That was then.

Despite all the public vitriol it seems that the all mighty dollar trumps political anger.

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Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Zionist Camp went on the offensive with a biting campaign against Likud and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

There had been serious critique by many in the Camp that the new/old now merged party has no real campaign. So they started one.

A huge billboard was erected. New radio and TV spots were produced. Bumper stickers were plastered all around the country. Posters are all over the place.

What is their message?

There is a picture of Bibi Netanyahu and the caption reads: He spends 10,000 shekel a year on ice cream and you do not have enough money for cottage cheese. Only a fool votes for Netanyahu.

A real zinger.

The word that was selected for fool is "Fryer." We do not really have a synonym in English. Fryer is more than just a fool. A fryer is a person who allows him or herself to be abused by others.

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Syria Starts End Game
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has begun a serious advance south of Damascus. In this strategic move Assad is using Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon.

It appears that Assad wants to clear out not only the al Qaeda rebels inhabiting the area south of Damascus, but also the independent rebels who are not connected to either al Qaeda or to ISIS.

This is a big move.

It means that Assad sees a way out and is starting to implement an end game strategy. The independent rebels are those who the United States feels could replace Assad after ISIS and al Qaeda are cleared out.

At the same time, Assad is indirectly involved in the US sponsored attacks on ISIS and al Qaeda.

In a BBC interview when asked if he was in the loop or if he was indirectly getting info from the United States in his quest against ISIS, Assad admitted --- "That's true, through third parties, more than one party, Iraq and other countries, sometimes they convey message(s), general message(s), but there is nothing tactical."

So now Assad is having the US attack one enemy (ISIS and al Qaeda) and Hezbollah attack his other (the independent rebels).
It has taken him a while but Assad finally seems to be in control o the situation. For better or for worse.


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Syria Says No To Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Syria is not happy with Jordan's new aggressive stance against ISIS.

The main reason for the Syrian displeasure is that Jordan has attacked ISIS targets in Syria - which is a clear violation of their air space and their borders.

Jordan is now threatening to also launch ground offensives against ISIS. And Foreign Minister of Syria Wallid Moallem has said very clearly that Jordan is not welcome and that Syria sees this Jordanian involvement as an infringement of Syrian rights.

He said that Syria will not permit any foreign ground forces to enter their country. That includes an international force and it certainly includes a Jordanian force.

Of course, the Syrians have neglected to mention that there are huge amounts of Iranian forces in Syria and as many as 35,000 Hezbollah fighters who are also there. That is perfectly okay with them.

Syria needs to apply more pressure on ISIS - but they want to do it on their terms. Jordan, on the other hand, does not seem to care about either Syrian or ISIS sensibilities.

A major diplomatic conflict is brewing. Sometime soon that conflict may lead to a skirmish or two between these cold neighbors.

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Quartet Says Don't Force a Palestinian State
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet met during the International Security Conference that took place in Munich.

The Quartet, which is composed of the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia issued a statement stating that they do not condone nor think it proper that the Palestinians force Israel into a de facto recognition of a Palestinian State.

Here is the statement the Quartet released, "a sustainable peace requires the Palestinians’ aspirations for statehood and sovereignty and those of Israelis for security to be fulfilled through negotiations based on the two-state solution."

It went on asking "both parties to refrain from actions that undermine trust or prejudge final-status issues." And that both parties utilize "UN Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, the Madrid Principles, including land for peace, and the agreements previously reached between the parties."

In other words - do not make any unilateral moves.

This is a very strong and important statement. Given the move in European capitals and their parliaments to recognize a Palestinian state and the move in the UN and in the Security Council vis a vis a Palestinian state, this decision by the Quartet is very important.

At last, world leadership recognizes that face-to-face negotiation is the only way to create a Palestinian State.

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ISIS Imam Questions Burning Pilot- Now He is To Go On Trial
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A religious leader in ISIS who voiced his objections to the burning of the Jordanian pilot has been removed from his official position.
He will stand trial and he himself may be executed.

At a meeting of the religious leadership of ISIS that was held in al-Bab in the Province of Aleppo, the Imam said that the burning of the Jordanian pilot was a violation of Islamic law. Many Islamic scholars, even some who are al Qaeda advisers and supporters, have condemned the burning and the compilation and release of video.

The Imam also said that those responsible for the burning should face trial.

Remember, these statements were made not as a public pronouncement, but rather, during a discussion among religious leadership.

It must be made clear to everyone - even ISIS religious leaders are not able to honestly express their feelings and thoughts. In ISIS, there is no room for discussion - even among those who we once thought of as inner circle.


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Jordan is More Complicated
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 7, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan is demonstrating great furor and fury in their fight against ISIS. So much so, that the Jordanians are decorating their bombs with verses from the Koran condemning ISIS.

On their return flight from a bombing raid that targeted ISIS, fighter jets did an honorary pass over the home town of their fallen pilot-in-arms.

And while it is not being spoken about, I am certain that Jordan has begun special ground ops raids into Iraq to get better intelligence about ISIS and even to attack ISIS encampments.

The King rushed back from the United States where he had been visiting to take his place at the helm of his country in this time of crisis. He has announced that Jordan will double down in their fight against ISIS.

Not all of Jordan agrees with the King and with the anger aimed at ISIS. There is a part of Jordan that is in agreement with ISIS beliefs and tactics and it is important to know what they are saying. Be prepared to see real divisiveness in Jordan - and by extension, in the rest of the Arab world.

After the video of the burned and mutilated Jordanian pilot went viral, many Jordanians took to social media with a hashtag that quickly became popular and reads:#notourwar and #notmypilot.

A large group of Jordanians are not empathizing with the pilot, his family, or his mission - but they are empathizing with his brutal murderers, the ISIS terrorists.

The pilot came from a tribe that was extremely loyal to the King of Jordan. That tends to be the division. Tribes are loyal while
Palestinians, who compose about 60% of Jordan, tend to be less loyal and consequently less trusted by the King.

The potential for internal conflict in Jordan is huge and ISIS knows it. So does the King. Jordan has turned into a potential, future, battle ground for ISIS.

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Palestinians May Want Bibi To Win
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone thinks that the Palestinians are rooting for Bibi to lose the upcoming Israeli elections. After all, it seems that the peace process has ground to a halt and that Palestinian leader Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are arch enemies.

Conventional wisdom has it that a prime minister from the Labor camp, from the newly merged party called the Zionist Camp, would be more amenable to Abbas and Palestinians demands than Likud. The Labor camp wants a resolution more than Likud does and will do more to get it. At least, that is what the pundits are saying.

The truth, however, is that it is unclear that the Palestinian Authority and Abbas even want that resolution. They may actually be rooting for Netanyahu. Why?

Because Netanyahu is the perfect scapegoat. He is the perfect reason for not needing to move toward a resolution. With Netanyahu in position as prime minister, the Palestinians can blame the lack of progress squarely on him.

If part of the Palestinian goal really is to avoid a resolution- and I think it is - then it should be obvious that they will be extremely happy if Likud and Netanyahu trounce the newly merged middle left Zionist Camp. But do not expect them to admit that publically.

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EU Chides Jordan -- Why Kill Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There has been nearly unanimous condemnation of the recent horrific murder of the Jordanian pilot.

Condolences and messages of support have been sent to Jordan.
Some of that support was coupled with very mixed messages.

We support you but...
We want to fight terror but...
We condemn any form of capital punishment but...

Below is the statement presented by the European Union to Jordan. Note how the EU both supports and condemns Jordan. These comments show the root of Europe's problems with confronting terror.

Here is the official EU statement.

"While all efforts must be made to counter terrorism and hold the perpetrators accountable, our reaction to the threat posed by (Islamic State) needs to be consistent with our common values on justice and the rights of prisoners."
"Our action has to be guided by the respect of international human rights law and humanitarian law. The European position against death penalty remains unchanged and we believe capital punishment does not serve any deterrent purpose."

Imagine what ISIS leadership thought when they read this statement.
Now imagine how the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan feels.

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Israel Cut Electricity to the PA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 4, 2015

I've been thinking:

Israel has decided to cut electricity to the Palestinian Authority.

No it is not what you think!
The Palestinians owe Israel 1.8 billion Shekel. That is $600 million dollars that they owe to Israel for electricity.

So the Israeli electric company is shutting the electricity. Well, actually, sort of shutting it off, but not really. For one hour every morning and for one hour every evening, Israel is reducing the electricity that will be delivered to the Palestinian Authority by 50%.

That means for two hours a day the Palestinians will have to conserve and only use half their normal allocation.

That is hardly a hardship. But make no mistake about it, Israel will certainly be admonished for taking even this small, limited, action.

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Bibi More Popular Because of Obama Shun
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

People quote polls as if they were quoting the gospel.

They are not - and polls now being conducted in Israel, prior to the upcoming election, are a great example.

Recent polls are showing that Likud, the party of Prime Minister Netanyahu, is gaining. Likud has moved into the top slot. With each passing week their numbers have been increasing.

This increased fame and political fortune comes despite the fact pundits in both Israel and the United States predicted that Bibi would take a huge hit because he accepted the Boehner invitation to address both house of Congress.

Actually, the opposite is true. Netanyahu is more popular and his party continues to grow in popularity.

One of the reasons for this rise in popularity is that Israelis enjoyed seeing their prime minister standing up to Obama. If the

White House wants to sabotage Bib in the next election - they should be nice to him. That would send a very different message to Israel.

It would paint Netanyahu with the brush of a failed US Mid East policy and that would be the political kiss of death.

Instead, Obama has breathed new life into his campaign. Netanyahu and his Likud party are flourishing.

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Ahmadinejad - A Blast From The Past
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Here is a name from the past ---- Ahmadinejad.

Yes, Mahmoud Ahamdinejad, former president of Iran, just opened a web page. The page features a smiling photo of Ahmadinejad with the caption "Coming Back Soon." That seems to be his new theme: Coming Back Soon.

It looks like the former political leader is setting the stage to make a comeback in the upcoming elections, set for next year.

The past few years have been a PR nightmare for Ahmadinejad. Many in his inner circle have been convicted of corruption in various forms.
His vice president, for example, was just convicted and sentenced to 5 years in prison and a $300,000 fine. The charges were so problematic that even other right wing politicians saw Ahmadinejad as toxic and moved away from him.

Ahmadinejad has been out of the public eye.

Now he is preparing to re-enter and he needs to distance himself from the corruption and present a new face.

Ahmadinejad is very conservative - and that message is very powerful in many parts of Iran. Do not discount him. There are many positions of power that he may be seeking. And one of those positions is most certainly a return to the presidency.


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Jordan Threatens ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan responded to ISIS.

ISIS has said that they will execute the downed Jordanian pilot they captured and are holding unless Jordan releases a female terrorist.

Jordan has decided to up the ante. They have countered and are now threatening ISIS. They want proof that their pilot is alive and they have clearly told this to ISIS. If you kill our pilot, the Jordanians said, we will execute all ISIS prisoners in Jordan.

This is not an idle threat. Jordan can and will do exactly what they have threatened to do. Jordan is betting that ISIS will understand and respond to the threat of force.

That remains to be seen. How will ISIS respond?

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UN Fed Up w/ Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 30, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The UN is expressing its frustration with the infighting and lack of organized government in Gaza.

The United Nations is laying the blame on inter-Palestinian power struggles. The most important issue for the UN is that they have a plan to rebuild Gaza but their plan is going nowhere because there is no government in Gaza to help in the rebuilding.

Robert Serry, who doubles as the personal envoy to the region for the UN Secretary General and as the Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, is very frustrated.

Serry complained saying: "We need a government ... that is able to take responsibility." He continued: "We have a (UN) mechanism that is working but almost everything else is not in place and that influences decisions of donors... I am not (absolving) donors for their responsibilities, the fact that so little money is available is scandalous."

For months I have been writing that there are two things that will prevent the rebuilding of Gaza.

# 1: Donors will not give to an environment where they are not certain that the fund will 100% go to rebuilding.
#2: The Palestinians are not interested in rebuilding. They have not organized themselves to rebuild.

Until these two items happen there is no way there will be any reconstruction in Gaza

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US Says No To Iranian Diplomat
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 29, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone who enters the United States needs a visa. That includes diplomats and even ambassadors to the United Nations. Even heads of state traveling to speak at the UN need visas.

The man appointed to be the ambassador to the UN for Iran was denied his visa. So Iran needed to appoint a new ambassador.

Hamid Aboutalebi was the original Iranian appointment. The United States said "no" to his entry, even on a restricted visa that would have permitted him the ability to travel a 25 mile radius from the epicenter the UN which would include all New York City airports. The US State Department denied entry to Aboutalebi because they believe that he was involved in the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy in Teheran.

This is very important.

There was a time, in November of 1988, under President Reagan, when the United States would not grant a visa to Yasser Arafat because he "knows of, condones and lends support to acts of terror." As a result, Arafat could not address the United Nations in New York.

In that instance the United Nations picked up, packed up and moved the General Assembly to Europe, specifically to Geneva, Switzerland, and Arafat was able to deliver his address to the UN.

There is a lesson in all of this. I am glad that the United States, or at least the State Department, is using the law to take a stand on certain important issues. I wonder when the White House became aware of the decision.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 28, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Iran sent a message to Israel via the United States.
The Islamic Republic News Agency, known as IRNA, reported that Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdullian told the Americans to pass a message to Israel.

"We told the Americans that the leaders of the Zionist regime should await the consequences of their act."

He continued: "We tell them to await retaliation but we will decide about its timing, place and the strength."

The death of an Iranian general at the hands of Israel while he was, literally, on the border of Israel in Lebanon together with a Hezbollah team was a painful blow to Iran.

And Iran needs to save face. Their operations in Lebanon and Syria most often go unreported and are unknown to the world. This Israeli intervention forced the spotlight on Iran's presence in those areas.
And it showed that Iran was plotting and planning and advising Hezbollah in ways to attack - and even try to destroy, Israel.

There are those who say that the Israeli action was a mistake. Iran could attack Jewish sites around the world in retaliation. This is true. And in the past they have done just that.

But it is also essential that Iran knows they cannot get that close to Israel without consequence.

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BBC Wont Use Terms Terror or Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 27, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Some people are afraid to call them Muslim terrorists because it is a value judgment. And some media believes that if they refer to Islamic mass murderers as terrorists they will be accused of showing a bias.

Me, --- I have a bias for the innocent victims who are slain by the Muslim mass murders who openly profess their desire to intimidate us, convert us and if that does not happen to destroy us.

I was floored when I read the comments of the head of the Arabic section of the BBC. This is the BBC's largest foreign section. The name of the depatment head is Tarik Kafala.

In an interview with the British newspaper The Independent Kafala described how he approached coverage of the terror attacks in France.
Kafala said "We try to avoid describing anyone as a terrorist, or an act as being terrorist."

He continued, "What we try to do is to say that 'two men killed 12 people in an attack on the office of a satirical magazine'. That's enough, we know what that means and what it is."

Kafala tried to explain his editorial style by saying "We know what political violence is, we know what murder, bombings and shootings are and we describe them." "That's much more revealing, we believe, than using a word like terrorist which people will see as value-laden."

How sad. And Kafala is just being a good BBC soldier. He is following the BBC guide book of style and usage which, he said, cautions that "the use of the words 'terrorist' or 'terrorist group' can create inconsistency in their use or, to audiences, raise doubts about our impartiality."

The BBC advises using words other than "terrorist", words such as "bomber", "attacker", "gunman", "kidnapper" or "militant".

The free press is supposed to promote freedom, not suppress freedom.

What a very sad state of affairs for the BBC.

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Yemen is a Real Mess
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 26, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yemen is a real mess. The government resigned - and that is the least of their problems. Yemen is a country of 24 million people.
It is one of the poorest countries in the Middle East with an annual average income of about $1400.

Yemen is also the major base of al Qaeda in the Middle East. One of the al Qaeda groups working out of Yemen is al Qaeda of the Arab Peninsula. It is probably more potent, more powerful, more organized and has more members than any al Qaeda group anywhere in the world.

Another of the al Qaeda groups in Yemen goes by the name Houthi.
They have taken over Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, a city of nearly two and a half million people.

The United States has been trying to prevent al Qaeda from taking over Yemen. They have been training Yemeni military forces and using unmanned drones to strike al Qaeda and its leadership.
Unfortunately, the intelligence that the US has relied upon for their drones has been almost totally infiltrated by al Qaeda.

The military training and the use of drones simply falls shy of what is necessary to protect and save Yemen.

The day after the government resigned tens of thousands of people marched in the capital demanding a government and asking for order in an attempt to say "no" to al Qaeda. There was some violence.

The people of the capital city Sana'a do not want al Qaeda to take over. So what can be done?

Yemenis must create a group of loyal, dependable and trustworthy fighters who are capable of attacking al Qaeda directly. They need to seek out and strike at al Qaeda everywhere they live. These forces will need air support from the United States. They may also need to get support from their neighbor Saudi Arabia who abhors and detests al Qaeda.

The United States needs to immediately identify and support this group. They need to ply them with weapons and money and set them loose. This is the only way to stymie and defeat al Qaeda. Right now al Qaeda has the advantage of momentum. That energy must be reversed.

Time is of the essence. And right now time is not on the side of Yemen.

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Iran To Enrich More
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 25, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Here is a peek into Iran's point of view on nuclear negotiations.

Yesterday the parliament in Iran began drafting legislation that would empower scientists to continue to enrich uranium in their new generation centrifuges.

There is a nuclear committee in the Iranian parliament and the spokesman, Hussein Naghavi Husseini, is quoted in the Iranian media
explaining the draft legislation.

He said: "This bill will allow the government to continue enrichment, using new generation centrifuges."
"The parliament's nuclear committee is working on the technical issues and details of this draft."

There is no doubt that the parliamentary committee is expressing the feeling of many Iranians and their leaders.

These politicians are not confident that an agreement with the West will benefit Iran. More than that -- they strongly believe that it is their inherent right to develop nuclear technology and the West has no place to limit that right.

For Iran it is an issue of pride and power.

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US Ban Embassy Workers from Israeli Public Transport
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 23, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The United States Embassy in Tel Aviv has issued a travel warning to all employees.

US Embassy employees are not permitted to use public transport or to come within 1.5 miles of the borders of Syria, Jordan or Lebanon without permission.

The statement from the US Embassy reads "Because of concerns about security on Israel's northern borders, US government personnel are currently required to obtain advance approval if they wish to travel within 1.5 miles (2.4 kilometers) of the Lebanon border, or travel on or east of Route 98 in the Golan Heights."

Banning public transport is an exaggerated response.

No doubt terrorists have targeted public transportation, but public transport is a way of life in Israel. The suggestion that US embassy personnel are not safe while performing the most basic of Israeli daily activities is not just truly insulting to Israeli society, it is a total misunderstanding of the situation.

Barring personnel from approaching a hostile border makes sense. But shutting off employees from buses and the trains sends the wrong message. And it does not make them safer.

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Lone Wolf Terror in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 22, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There was another lone wolf terror attack in Israel.

The perpetrator is a young Arab man from Tulkharam. He boarded a Tel Aviv bus and started stabbing - attacking 13 people. He ran and was shot in the leg by police as he attempted to escape. He was arrested.

The terrorist explained that he perpetrated the terror because of Israeli actions in Gaza over the summer. He said that he was excited by the internet videos he saw and by internet discussions about seeking revenge.

There are certain givens about lone wolf attackers against Israelis.
The lone wolf in Israel is almost always:

A young Arab man in his 20's or 30's.

Angry over a family member who was wounded, killed or interrogated by Israel.

The attack is often an initiation rite or an attempt to prove something.

The attacker is almost always illegally in Israel.

Lone wolves attack public transport because that is where Israelis are stationary - waiting for a bus or train, sitting and traveling. The public transport system makes Israelis easy targets for the lone wolf.

At this stage it is pretty clear who the "lone wolf" is. Now Israel needs to put a stop to the terror. It will take intel and a strong security presence.

Israel needs to advance its intelligence on people who illegally infiltrate the country. They need to stop them and watch them.

It is not an easy task, but Israel needs to clamp down on these lone wolves. And they need to do it soon.

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Hamas Building New Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 21, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

We have known some of the details since the battle with Gaza ended.
Now we know more. More details and specifics that further our understanding - not conjecture, not hypothesis.

Since the end of the 50 day conflict, Hamas has been reconstructing, recreating and digging new tunnels.

Tunnels into Egypt. Tunnels into Israel. Tunnels within Gaza. Tunnels, tunnels and more tunnels. And with these new tunnels comes newer, more sophisticated technology.

According to Israeli intelligence Hamas learned from their experience in fighting Israel and they are applying those lessons in their new tunnels.

And Israel has begun to counter. The IDF engineering corps that focuses on these tunnels is called Yahalom (Diamond). Yahalom is adding hundreds of personnel to their unit. Not only is Israel significantly increasing the size of this specialized unit, they are also upgrading the status of its commander. The commander, once a Lt. Colonel, will now receive the rank of Colonel.

Israel must anticipate the technological advancements Hamas will use and develop strategies and practical devices that can defeat them.

This expanded engineering corps is essential.

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Israel Kills Iranian General in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 20, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I discussed the Israeli attack on Syria that actually struck Hezbollah.

It is now clear, from Arab news reports and video, that 6 Hezbollah members were killed and 6 Iranians were killed including an Iranian general. Iran has confirmed his death.

The airstrike was not against a location or a base but against two vehicles, two SUVs. One was a Jeep Cherokee and one was a Kia Sorento. Both were travelling in the northern section of Quneitra, seven miles from the Israeli border.

The video shows that both vehicles totally destroyed. Burnt out and blown to bits. Just pieces remained. UN witnesses said that they saw two drones fire but news reports cite Hezbollah witnesses saying that an Israeli helicopter shot two missiles that destroyed the cars.

The difference between what we knew at first and what we know now is important. A strike against two vehicles with six people in each vehicle means a great deal. It means that these people were planning and plotting and sketching out responses to a potential attack by Israel on Iran. And the presence of an Iranian general seven miles from the Israeli border is very significant and is extremely telling.

That Israel knew and stopped the plot was very impressive.


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Israel Strikes Syria - Hits Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 19, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Israeli helicopter gunships hit a Hezbollah base located in Syria, on the border with Israel situated on the Golan Heights.
The target was large arsenals of missiles and rockets that could have endangered Israel.

One of the dead was the leader of Hezbollah strategy on the Golan, Jihad Moghniyeh. He was the son of one of the most important leaders of Hezbollah - their chief strategist Imad Moghniyeh, who was killed in 2008. Some say that the father, too, was killed by Israel - but the list of potential sponsors for the assassination of Moghniyeh senior is very long and it includes Saudi Arabia.

Will Hezbollah launch a large scale retaliation against Israel in response? No, they will not.

They will not do it even though only last week Hezbollah proclaimed that they were prepared to attack Israel. There may be some small responses, those can and should be expected, but no large reaction.

And why not? Because Iran has supplied Hezbollah with 10s of thousands of rockets to respond when Israel launches an attack on Teheran - but they are not to be used now.

In addition, there is no real justification for attacking Israel for striking at Hezbollah in the Syrian Golan Heights. After all, Hezbollah will have a difficult time justifying their response in defending Syria - and not southern Lebanon.

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Canada Stands w Israel Palestinians Egg FM
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 18, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

John Baird, Canada's Foreign Minister, went to Ramallah to meet his Palestinian counterpart Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Malilki.
As soon as Baird stepped out of his vehicle, he was pelted with eggs and shoes.

Not a propitious moment! And certainly not what one would expect when greeting the leading Canadian diplomat who was venturing to Ramallah as part of an official visit to learn about the situation.

Want the back story? Unknown to most people, Canada has been a staunch supporter of Israel these past few years. Since Stephan Harper and his Conservative party took over the reins of leadership Canada has been a major bull-work in the international community explaining and lobbying for Israel's point of view.

What was unknown to the average reader was well known to Palestinian leadership - and certainly to the egg throwers.

Using his own words, here is how Canada's Prime Minister Harper described Israel. Calling Israel a "light of freedom and democracy in what is otherwise a region of darkness" he said: "When Israel, the only country in the world whose very existence is under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand. Demonization, double standards, delegitimization, the 3 D's - it is a responsibility to stand up to them."

Canada stands strongly beside Israel and the eggers of Ramallah showed their disapproval.

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Belgium Suffers From Muslim Extremists Too
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 17, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

People have been asking me about Belgium . They want to know about the Islamic influence there.

I begin by saying that when in Brussels, I am more likely to speak Arabic than French.

But more importantly, after the series of anti-terror raids it should be pretty evident that Belgium has a significant number of organized radical Muslims. And it should come as only a small surprise to learn that the weapons purchased for the Paris terror attacks were procured in Belgium.

There are some important numbers to remember. Belgium estimates that 40 of their citizens have been killed in Syria fighting for ISIS.
They also estimate that another 170 Belgian citizens are there right now, in Syria, fighting for ISIS.

Each of these numbers has a name - so they are hardly estimates. I would guess that the real number is probably three times higher, making it 100 deaths and about 600 Belgians who can now be counted in the ranks of ISIS.

Many more Belgians hare returned home having already fought for their new-found cause. They return with training and proceed to recruit and train others.

The most devastating number of them all is this: for 18-25 year olds in Belgium, unemployment is over 50%. On a bad day, ISIS looks very good.

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Cyber Terror in France
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 16, 2015

I've been thinking:

In the week since France was thrown into the throes of a series of Muslim terror attacks, a new set of threats has enveloped the country.
In the course of one week 19,000 French websites have been hacked by cyber terrorists.

Muslim cyber terrorists have initiated a full court press on the internet - disrupting and destroying normal internet activity.

President Francois Hollande is trying to bring a sense of calm back to his country. He has addressed the Muslim community. He has reassured them that they are welcome. That France respects them.
That France respects Islam.

Hollande said -- "France is a friend, but it is a country that has rules, principles and values. One of them is not negotiable - freedom and democracy."

Hollande is trying to strike a balance. Using words, not actions, he hopes to convince the five million Muslims living in France that they need to fight for democracy.

In this effort, I believe that Hollande will be successful. But it is not peace-loving Muslims who are the problem - and that's the problem France must deal with.

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Conspiracies say Mossad Behind Paris Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 15, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Conspiracies abound. Websites are spewing anti-Semitic rhetoric about the terror in Paris. Some sites and some media outlets have gone as far as to actually blame Israel and the Mossad for the terror. Believe it or not, many of the sites are hosted in the United States.

ADL has put together a very troubling collection of examples of people blaming Jews for the attacks.

Mark Glenn, a virulently anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist, wrote on his blog The Ugly Truth that "the massacre in Paris as (sic) yet another False Flag event aimed at re-igniting and re-invigorating Judea's declared war against Islam."

One of the most disturbing pieces of this vitriol was published in an established media outlet in India, the International Business Times.
They outright claimed that the Mossad perpetrated the terror attacks in Paris. And then they admitted there was no proof.

"Although there is no way to verify the claims that Mossad was involved, the back-drop in which the attack took place seems to indicate that they might be involved, many conspiracy theorists have noted. Mossad is responsible for intelligence collection and has undertaken many covert operations for Israel in Europe that aim to further their Jewish cause."

In defense of the outlet, the article was pulled and a note was posted saying that the "article should never have been published."
One might expect these ideas in the Arab world but not from Jordan.
On January 8, the Rawafed News website which comes out of Jordan posted a piece by Assad al Azony titled "The Tragedy of Satirical Charlie Hebdo." The essential is this: "One must be certain that Jews and the French extreme right wing executed this terrorist attack."

One might expect that sentiment from some parts of the Arab world, but not from Jordan.

There is only one word to describe this material and these attitudes. Anti-Semitism. Weave together conspiracy theories and call them proof. It's classic. Classic anti-Semitism.

They weave together conspiracy theories and call it proof.


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Mistakes in France Helped Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 14, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

There were serious snafus in French intelligence gathering and security. The terror that devastated France may not have been perpetrated had intelligence and police acted differently.

The French neither tracked nor followed the terrorists - even though they possessed the knowledge that they were a serious security threat.

That was a sin of omission. It was something that France should have done, but did not do. And they also committed a sin of commission. French police did something that they should not have done. They did something that altered the course of terror.

When the terrorists left the offices of Charlie Hebdo they drove their car into a narrow alley where they got out to reload and to celebrate. They shouted in elation that they had ravaged Charlie Hebdo and avenged the Prophet. At that point a police cruiser came down the alley.

The terrorists assumed they would be shot at. But instead, after a few seconds, the police, ignoring the actions of the terrorists, sped backwards allowing the terrorist vehicle to pass.

The terrorists were shocked. They jumped back in their car and eased forward cruising out of the alley. After going nose to nose with the police cruiser, the brothers quickly turned left and sped away. The police car stood still the police were not in pursuit.

And thus began the massive national manhunt that ended two days and five innocent lives later. All the police had to do was not let the terrorist car turn. But instead, they let them turn.

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France Asked Bibi Not to Attend Rally
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 13, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Haaretz, the Israeli daily paper of record, sent out a screeching alert that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was going to Paris to participate in the rally - defying terrorism and standing in support of the fight against terror by honoring the 17 French victims, 4 of whom were Jews murdered in the kosher supermarket.

The kicker is that French President Hollande did not want Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to attend the rally. WOW!
Obviously, Netanyahu went anyway. And just as obviously, they came to an understanding.

Here are the probable reasons Hollande had for asking Netanyahu to keep out of his rally.

1- The presence of both Netanyahu and PA President Abbas might steal the show. The spotlight would shine on them and the lack of progress in their negotiations towards peace.

2- Netanyahu would arrive with a very large delegation and a very large security team. It would make the rally very difficult to manage securely.

3 - Netanyahu has been calling on French Jews to move to Israel as a result of the threat of terror and the flagrant anti-Semitism running rampant in France. This is a direct offence to the French who do not see the threat as substantial.

4 - Hollande and his advisers do not believe that terror in Israel can be paralleled to the terror they face in France. In Israel, they maintain, terror is understandable. It is political and, therefore, in their eyes it is justified. In France, the terror is Islamic.

Netanyahu speaks about the Western world working to together to confront the same threats. France would like to think that the Palestinian terror Israel is confronting is not the same as the threat they are facing.

In the end the French changed their minds. Israel played the victims card. How would it look if the prime minister of Israel announced that he was going to France and then changed his plans. How would it look if he was not at a rally in honor of 4 Jews brutally murdered in a kosher market and awaiting burial in Israel.

I'll tell you how it would look. It would look far worse than if the president or vice president of the United States was not there.

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France Not Mourning Death of Jews
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 12, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The French are not mourning the brutal murder of four Jews at the hands of a Muslim terrorist. They are mourning the loss of their own innocence.

The 17 people murdered by Muslims terrorists in Paris last week awakened France to the dangers of Islamic terror. Until now the French saw Islamic terror as an atrocious act reserved for Jewish targets. They were repulsed but did not act significantly to stymie the threat. There were a few rallies and politicians recited touching rhetoric. But there was little significant movement to combat the terror threats.

Once the attacks touched the fabric of French culture - the press, then the nation woke up.

France is not prepared to deal with the threat. Terrorists on the US "no fly list" were not even tracked in France. Even if they were tracking the terrorists the French could not and would not be able to tap their phones and computers or share the material with other countries to battle the terror.

The French need to change their laws. They need to realize that, in the current state of terrorist affairs, it is crucial to cooperate with others and to track their own threats inside their own country.

The alternative is now obvious, even to the French.

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French Terrorists Were ISIS- Video Proves
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 11, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

A video has emerged showing French terrorist of Algerian extraction, Amedy Coulibaly, pledging allegiance to ISIS and specifically to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS and the Caliph.

Since events unfolded on Wednesday analyst and columnists and talking heads have stubbornly refused to see the ISIS connection. They were all basing their assumptions on the past history of the Kouchi brothers, asserting that they were involved only in al Qaeda.

But things change - especially in the world of extremism. And for hard core extremists the more radical you become the more likely you are to seek out radical movements. When ISSI came around these French terrorists hit the web and created a club of like minded ISIS followers. They were certainly influenced by ISIS - and this video proves it.

In the video Coulibaly explained his connection to the Kouchi brothers saying: "We've done things a bit together, a bit apart, to try to and achieve more impact."

The terrorists were clearly linked. That is why Coulibaly demanded the release of the brothers and why he threatened to murder the hostages in the kosher supermarket if they were not released.

ISIS is not about membership, ISIS is about affiliation. It is crucial that we understand the difference. As soon as you click onto ISIS sites you are affiliated.

This is just one in a long list of examples demonstrating how little we understand ISIS and the people who will pick up the sword to fight their cause.

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A Muslim Challenges ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 10, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

For over a decade I have been calling for Muslims to stand up against extremism within Islam. Very few have taken up the challenge. Many Muslims are fearful of reprisal, petrified that they will be attacked verbally and physically.

And then, I discovered a convenience store manager in Minnesota named Ahmed. Ahmed is producing video shorts combating Muslim extremism. He is going it all alone. Each of his shorts cost about $4000. As says, he is addressing one issue at a time. His audience is small.

ISIS, on the other hand, produced a 55 minute long format video that went viral. Called the "The Flames of War" it is all over the internet. ISIS inspires young people to join the cause and fight the West.

So Ahmed from Minnesota decided to create a 76 second short called "The Flames of Hell." It is a cartoon that depicts a Muslim who is shooting captives, all of whom are bound, in the desert. The cartoon asks: "How many innocent children, women and men has the Islamic State killed today? Do you want to save mankind or kill mankind? Your choice!" In the background is the echo of gunfire.

All the videos Ahmed creates end with the expression "Peace Up, Extremist Thinking Down" and all the characters give a thumbs up and a thumbs down. He uses the Koran in his videos in an effort to disprove the much more slick media produced by al Qaeda and ISIS.

Over the last few months the short videos received a few thousand views on Youttube. That can be considered a modest success. Ahmed from Minnesota is fighting a long, uphill battle. A large number of kids from Minnesota have run off to Somalia and Iraq and Syria to fight.

Ahmed needs to make more videos. And more people need to watch them.

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Paris Terorists Were ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 9, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been written and reported about the horrific terror attack in Paris.

The terrorists are said to be from al Qaeda - but that is not so clear. One of the terrorists, Charif Kouachi, was convicted and sentenced to three years in prison in 2008 for recruiting and organizing people to join all Qaeda and fight for the cause.

But between the years 2008 and 2015, ISIS emerged and many groups and many organizers went from al Qaeda to ISIS.

It is more than probable that the Kouachi brothers started as al Qaeda and ended up as part of ISIS.

Al Qaeda has a loosely knit organizational structure in Europe. Al Qaeda sends commands through the internet. They have coded communications. The hierarchy of leadership draws up plans and then recruits are vetted and terrorists are trained and selected to implement those plans.

ISIS is not a membership organization in Europe. ISIS trained their people in combat in Iraq and Syria. Then they sent them home to wreak havoc. If they frequented ISIS websites -- they were ISIS.

That seems to be how this heinous attack unraveled in Paris.

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Rand Paul Says Stop Funding PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 8, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Senator Rand Paul, who will almost certainly throw his hat in the ring as a Republican presidential contender, submitted a bill to the Senate to immediately stop all aid to the Palestinians.

He said:
"We are currently sending roughly $400 million of US taxpayer dollars to the Palestinian Authority."

"Certainly, groups that threaten Israel cannot be allies of the US; I will continue to do everything in my power to make sure this president and this Congress stop treating Israel's enemies as American allies."

The Leahy bill already makes it illegal for the United States to give any money to the Palestinians if they bring Israel before the International Criminal Court, the ICC. Some say joining the Court is the first stage of that process, others say it is only after April 1 when Palestinians actually become members of the Court that they will have stepped over the boundary of what the US considers acceptable behavior, and still others say it is only after they submit legal papers outlining the complaint.

Senator Paul is proposing stop the aid now - without a discussion on when the Palestinians actually violate the existing Leahy law.

As a rule, Rand Paul is against foreign aid but he knows that it is necessary - sometimes. Here is a perfect example of why aid should sometimes be stopped.

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ISIS: An Eye For An Eye
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 7, 2015

I've been Thinking:

ISIS is known for decapitations..

They have decapitated countless numbers of people. In Syria, one of the most prominent ISIS leaders responsible for those beheading was known as the Deputy Emir of the Hesbah Force.

He is now dead - decapitated. What poetic justice that was.
Imagine the surprise - or perhaps even relief, when the discovery was made and then reported to the public. The body was found near a power plant. There were signs of torture.

This was a message to ISIS, there should be no doubt about that. Victims of ISIS cruelty were saying that they, too, are capable of great brutality. They were saying that they will seek revenge against ISIS torture and beheadings using the same methods that ISIS uses against them and their families and communities.

It is the Koranic equivalent of Exodus 21:24 "an eye for an eye."
The Koran says in Surat al Maidah 5:45 "And we ordained for them therein a life for a life, an eye for an eye, a nose for a nose, an ear for an ear, a tooth for a tooth, and for wounds is legal retribution. But whoever gives [up his right as] charity, it is an expiation for him. And whoever does not judge by what Allah has revealed - then it is those who are the wrongdoers."

The message was heard but it is not convincing. Why? --- Because ISIS knows that they are far more brutal than their victims will ever be.

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Israel Slows Electricity to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 6, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Israel Electric Company (IEC) is slowing the flow of electricity to Gaza. They are not shutting off the electricity - just slowing it down. Israel says that Gaza owes them 1.7 billion NIS, which is just about $400 million.

Gaza may get electricity from Israel, but the agreement and the bill go to the Palestinian Authority.

Israel is also with holding $120 million per month of tax money that it owes the Palestinian Authority.

According to a treaty between Israel and the Palestinians, all Palestinian imports that come into Israel are taxed by Israel and at the end of the month Israel is supposed to hand over the tax money to the PA.

Once the Palestinians decided to join the international criminal court -- Israel decided that as of January 1, 2015 they would not be handing over the tax money.

Several times a year, as a form of punishment for various transgressions, Israel decides to withhold the taxes for a few weeks, and then, a few weeks later, they deliver the money.

In this case as in others, after a few days or weeks Israel will hand over the tax money. But Israel will probably keep some of the money back to defray the 1.7 billion shekels that is owed to the Israel Electric Company.

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Revote in Sec Council on Palestinian State
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 5, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians confirmed several items over this past weekend.

First, Palestinians President Mahmoud Abbas made a public statement confirming that the Palestinian will ask Jordan to resubmit a resolution to the United Nations Security Council to vote on Palestinian statehood.

Second, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat said that they will be submitting two cases to the ICC in The Hague.

"The two main files will be the aggression against Gaza and the settlement file, since this is a continuous crime."

It is not clear that these cases will be heard by the ICC court - and not just because of the political aspects. The Court tends to steer clear of certain unresolved issues and, in this case, the Court can also easily side with Israel.

The Court has, in the past, made clear distinctions between civilians killed in acts of self defense and the targeting of civilians when there is evidence that they were defending themselves.

Now we wait.

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PA Puts A Noose next to Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 4, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Today on the Fatah - Palestinian Authority facebook page, on their main page, a picture of the Israeli prime Minister was posted. In the picture Benjamin Netanyahu was shown wearing the red uniform of a condemned prisoner, dangling next to his head was a hangman's noose.
The accompanying Arabic text read: in the near future.

Creating and posting this picture unveils for us exactly what the PA and Abbas are telling their people. The Palestinian Authority is gunning for Netanyahu and for Israel.

The objective of Palestinian leadership in going to the International Criminal Court in The Hague is to bolster Palestinian pride by bringing Israel before the ICC.

The problem Palestinian leadership may face is that the ICC may not take the case - and then the PA will be open to prosecution in its own right.

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Harper Collins Wipes Israel Off Map
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 3, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab world has found another way to wipe Israel off the map. And Harper Collins helped them do it. Literally.

In the Harper Collins atlas for English speaking schools in the Middle East, Israel is missing from the map. Yes, Harper Collins they did not put Israel on the map. According to their representative it was because of "local preferences."

Since the story became public, however, Harper Collins has issued a statement and destroyed all remaining maps.

"HarperCollins regrets the omission of the name Israel from their Collins Middle East Atlas. This product has now been removed from sale in all territories and all remaining stock will be pulped. HarperCollins sincerely apologizes for this omission and for any offense caused."

See the map here: click

What kind of world do we live in where the reason given for Israel being removed from the map was that it would offend the locals - with no concern for distorting the truth or eliminating facts. Facts and truth tend to fall by the wayside, at least in the world occupied by Harper Collins.

In the end Harper Collins realized their error and corrected it. In the end they realized that they had published a blatant untruth.
So much for fact checkers and editors.


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Palestinians and the UN
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 2, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have really climbed up a very high tree. In order to get down, they will need assistance.

We know that most countries in the world support the Palestinians and their push for a state. But they really mucked up the support they have been gathering around the world with the ill thought out and poorly planned proposal they had the Jordanians present on their behalf to the UN Security Council.

Plain and simple the Palestinians want a state. And they want that state without going through the trauma and drama of negotiating with Israel. Now, at the same time the Israelis want negotiations, but negotiations that will not in the end create a state.

The Palestinians were not thinking clearly. It is not good enough to have the support of most of the world. There are still procedures and diplomatic rules to adhere to in order to achieve the ultimate goal of statehood. One cannot trounce up the rules and still hope to get the support of those who created the rules.

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Iran Has More Men Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 1, 2015

I've Been Thinking:

Deputy head of the Iranian elite unit called the Revolutionary Guards announced yesterday that Iran has more forces fighting ISIS than does Hezbollah.

General Hossein Salami said that the number of their Guard soldiers in Iraq and Syria far outnumbers the soldieries that Hezbollah has sent over. His point was to say that Iran is actively fighting ISIS on the ground. And he was explaining why a Guards Brigadier General was killed earlier in the week in Iraq while confronting ISIS.

To get some perspective, the best estimates we have are that when Hezbollah was actively fighting ISIS in Syria they had 15,000 fighters there. And those fighters made a difference. Hezbollah swayed the tide of the conflict and successfully brought the momentum over to the Assad side.

Iran wants everyone to know that the United States created a coalition for air strikes against ISIS. But everyone knows that real transformation can only happen with forces on the ground. And indeed, that is what happened. Iran put boots on the ground to try to root out ISIS.

I would bet - and it is certainly not beyond the realm of possible, that we will see US aircraft laying down cover for Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen as they battle ISIS.

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UN Sec Council Rejects Palestinian State
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Security Council voted to reject a resolution that would have created a Palestinian state twelve months from now.

Rejection of this resolution should be viewed as a major misstep by the supporters of a Palestinian state. Even those in favor of the state could not actually support the resolution as it was written.

The major supporters of the resolution were hoping to force the vote and the issue by embarrassing those countries who say that they support a Palestinian state but who would really vote against it.

In order to pass, the resolution needed nine votes. If it would have gotten the necessary nine the United States or the United Kingdom would have been forced into using their veto to stop the resolution.

In the end the vote was 8 for, 2 against, 5 abstentions.

The eight countries voting in favor of the motion were China, France, Russia, Argentina, Chad, Chile, Jordan, Luxembourg. The two countries opposing the resolution were the United States and Australia. The five abstentions belonged to the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Nigeria, Korea, Rwanda.

Imagine--- the resolution was so ill thought out and planned that even countries like the US and the UK could not support it. The deadline is what did the resolution in. Even if a state was not created within the year, it would still, automatically, be recognized by the Security Council.

That is so out of touch with the way the international conducts itself that even the UK, the US and Nigeria had to reject it.

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ISIS Interview w/ Jordanian Pilot
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS released an interview with the Jordanian pilot they shot down last week.

The interview was in Dabiq magazine.

Dabiq is a very appropriate name for an ISIS periodical whose is to inspire followers and convince would be and wannabe followers to join the cause.

Dabiq is a town in Syria. But more importantly, in Islamic eschatology Dabiq is the central location of the final battle and the end of days.

It is the Muslim equivalent to Megiddo.

The interview with the Jordanian pilot, First Lieutenant Muadh al-Kasasbeh, has him describing how his F-16 was shot down on Wednesday by a heat-seeking missile near the Islamic State group's regional capital Raqaa in Syria. That to this day the U.S. denies is even possible.

This is a huge PR success for ISIS. And they have plastered it on the glossy cover of their new magazine.

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Iran General Killed by ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced on Sunday that one of their commanders was killed in Iraq while aiding the Iraqis in the battle against ISIS.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards is an elite military unit. The Guard is a serious political and economic force. They control almost every aspect of Iranian society.

The Guards announced that "Brigadier General Hamid Taghavi was martyred during a mission to advise the army and Iraqi volunteers ... in the city of Samarra."

Samarra is about 70 miles north of Iraq's capital, Baghdad.
Over the past year there have been several reports that Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel have been killed while fighting ISIS and reports that some have even captured by ISIS or al Qaeda. But this is by far the most senior person in the Guards to have been killed.

That old adage about "the enemy of my enemy" is alive and well and at play in the war against ISIS and al Qaeda. Thankfully.

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ISIS Executed 2000 Since July
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Since July ISIS has executed nearly 2,000 people - most of them civilians. But thousands is too nebulous for the gravity of the killings and the levels of depravity and brutality ISIS exercises almost every single day. Let's examine one specific incident.

The figures come from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Observatory is the most reliable agency on the ground, in the region, and we quote their figures with great confidence. Home based in London, the Observatory relies on locals and has a network of checkers to confirm their findings.

930 ISIS victims were fellow Sunni Muslims from the tribe and area of Sheitat located in Eastern Syrian. The reason for the massacre was twofold. The tribe of Sheitat has been fighting ISIS since ISIS first appeared on their turf. More recently, the groups were engaged in a heavily pitched battle for control of two oil fields. In the end, ISIS defeated Sheitat. In order to make the point clear to all who followed the battle and to intimidate anyone who might challenge ISIS, nearly 1,000 civilians were butchered in August.

And then ISIS executed 120 of their own fighters. Why would they murder their own?

All of the 120 fighters were foreign fighters. And they all were planning on returning to their homes. Once again, ISIS murdered in order to drive home a point. You do not go home, not unless you have orders to do so. If you plan to return home you are traitor, and traitors are publicly executed.

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Iran Shows US Their Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran claims it is in the midst of the largest military maneuver in their history.

The Iranians are saying that this maneuver is taking place over six days, on land, air and sea, using 13000 personnel and covering 2.2 million square kilometers.

The general in charge of the operation, General Hasham Allah Malka, said that the exercise is an "Important message of peace to our friendly neighbors, but also a show of force regarding our defense abilities which sends a message to our enemies."

The operation is called "Mohammed Rasoulallah" which means, "Mohammed the Messenger of God."

The maneuver will cover sea areas in the Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Aden. Iran has been active in the Gulf of Aden in the battle against the rise of piracy that has plagued that region. The entire exercise, which will conclude on December 30, will end with a parade.

When Iran presents its weapons and its military, we must sit up and watch very carefully. We must compare what the Iranians say is happening with what our intel is telling us and with what the Iranians have said in the past.

We try to correctly assess the capabilities of Iran. We can never take their pronouncements at face value.

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ISIS Downs an F-16 - A Big Victory
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It was a huge feather in the cap, make that kaffiyah, of ISIS when they successfully shot down an F-16 fighter jet yesterday, a jet that was part of the US led coalition against them.

The US-made fighter jet went down in the area of Raqqa in Syria. It was piloted by a Jordanian pilot who has been captured by ISIS and ISIS forces are cheering and celebrating. The pictures do not look good.

Raqqa is a major center of ISIS. In Raqqa ISIS has crucified Christian children for not fasting on Ramadan. They have decapitated men for the crime of being members of "the wrong family."

The downing of a coalition fighter jet is a huge psychological victory for ISIS. It might just be victory enough to mollify the pain of defeat ISIS forces suffered earlier this week when Kurdish Peshmerga fighters forced them out of a vast area around Mount Sinjar in Northern Iraq. Fighting in that area is now going back and forth.
The pendulum swings.

The fact that it was an Arab piloting the downed jet, that ISIS now has an Arab as captive, makes the ISIS maneuver even more potent. You see, as much as ISIS is fighting the West they are also fighting other Muslims.

It is very simple. ISIS wants everyone to convert to their version of Islam. Not just Westerners. Even other Arabs. Everyone.

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Polls in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I have been repeating over and over that the Israeli elections will take place on March 17 - and that is just over 10 weeks away. I keep repeating myself because, for Israeli elections, ten weeks is a huge span of time.

There are polls coming out and while it is important to look at them, they in no way show what will happen mid March. These polls are important in terms of movement and ideas and followers.

The secondary questions the pollsters are asking are very important. Polls often ask which party you would vote for and then, they ask whom do you think is the best person to be prime minster or who is best equipped to be prime minister.

In the most recent polls Labor and Likud looked about tied 22 - 21.
The party of Naftali Bennet, Jewish Home, looks to jump from 12 to 17 seats. The party of Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid, will probably drop to 10 seats.

But when asked which leader would be a better prime minister Netanyahu overwhelmingly won 38 - 32. And then when asked who was best equipped Netanyahu won again, 30 - 22.

Again it is far too early for any of this to mean much. But it is essential that we look carefully and watch for changes as the campaign develops.


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ISIS in France
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Look at the last three days in France.

On Saturday, in Paris, a man stabbed and wounded three police officers while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar," which means God is Great.

On Sunday, in the city of Dijon, a man rammed his car into a crowd injuring thirteen people while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar."

On Monday, in the western city of Nantes, the sixth largest city in France and the city known as the Venice of the West, a man drove a van into a Christmas market wounding ten people, five of them very seriously while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar." In this case, after he stopped, the man stabbed himself.

These attacks were all, plainly and clearly, stimulated by the ISIS. The attacks were perpetrated during the Christmas season in the hope of striking fear into the hearts of the community.

These attacks are modeled after the car terror in Israel and they are fueled by the social media of ISIS.

We are going to see many more of these attacks in France and throughout Europe. Be prepared.

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ISIS Pushed back
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday there was some good news about the battle against ISIS.
Kurdish fighters, called the Peshmerga, forced ISIS out of a 2500 square mile area around the Mount Sinjar in Northern Iraq.

The Peshmerga brought in 10,000 fighters and then an addition 350. Together with US fighter jets, they forced ISIS out. Local can now, finally, come home. Most of the people who had been displaced were Yazidis - tens of thousands were living in transit camps with no water.

Peshmerga means "those who confront death" in Kurdish. It should be clear that when you join the Peshmerga you are expected to fight to the death.

This recent victory against ISIS brings with it great hope. The area around the Mount Sinjar is large. Now the allies and the Peshmerga must work together to expand control and to slowly and progressively continue to oust ISIS

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Syria Making Local Truces
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's powerful speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani is on a visit to Syria where he met with Syrian President Bashar Asad.

Assad told Larijani that Syria is in favor of developing small, local, regional treaties as a way to ease, if not bring about a total cessation, of civil war in Syria.

The principle behind the instituting of treaties is that local leaders, even leaders who oppose Assad, will come to an agreement about local resources and security. It really would be mutually beneficial to break the area down into regions controlled by tribal leaders - that way all sides are satisfied, but with some reservations.

For obvious reasons, the two groups which would be left out of these treaty agreements are al Qaeda / al Nusra and ISIS. They are what Assad calls the terrorists.

Iran was very pleased to hear about the Assad plan and the potential for alleviating much of the internal conflict fueling the Syrian civil war. If the plan progresses as Assad hopes it will, it will demonstrate a clearer identification of ISIS and al Qaeda / al Nusra as the enemy.

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2% of Peldges to PA Have Been Paid
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Months ago donors gathered in Egypt and pledged $5.4 billion to help rebuild Gaza. The pledges far exceeded the expectations. That was not surprising.

And since then, almost no one has paid their pledges and those that did come in were for only a fraction of the promise. Once again, as
I always say, this is not a surprise.

Thus far of the $5.4 billion only $100 million has been paid and that was by the United States and the European Union. That comes to about 2% of the pledges. And those were monies already in the pipeline.
Qatar promised $1 billion, the Saudis $500 million.

Now, we also know that the supplies that have been delivered to Gaza are either in storage waiting for proper supervision or they have been stolen and Hamas is using them to rebuild tunnels and create new ones.

Of the pledges, 50% was to go to rebuilding and the other 50% was to go to bolster the Palestinian economy.

Recent history of donor conferences and pledges has taught us that the only group that actually fulfills pledges and pays on time is the United States. And that is the only reason that the United States still has influence in the region.

The Palestinians cannot run to the highest bidder because the bidder may not pay, may not pay on time or may not pay the pledged amount.
Welcome to the Middle East.

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Did Israel Infiltrate Inner Circle of Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The name of the Israeli double agent inside Hezbollah was divulged by Al Jazeera. His name is Mohammed Shurba. Shurba lived in Southern Lebanon. He was head of foreign operations and at one point was even in charge of Hassan Nassrallah's security detail.

When the announcement first came out saying that Hezbollah had captured an Israeli spy, they gave only the letter M as his name.
Reports are that Hezbollah followed Shurba to business meetings and witnessed him meeting with his Israeli handlers. It was at first unclear that the reports were actually true because, in the past, Hezbollah declared on more than one occasion that they had rooted out spies. But this report rings more true than previous reports.

If this really is true, it will be a great loss for Israeli intel.
This highly placed and reliable resource helped prevent massive terror attacks against Israel and aided in assassinating numerous terror leaders.

Here is the remarkable piece. If true, that means that Israel successfully infiltrated Hezbollah at the very highest levels possible. They had a double agent in place, since 2008, in the inner circle of Hezbollah.

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2 15 Yr Old Brits on Flight to ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

At a London airport a flight was stopped on the runway as it was about to take off.

On board were two 15 year old girls from East London who has saved up their own money to fly to Istanbul and from there, they were planning to cross over the border into Syria.

One of the girls was detained and brought back home by the police and she will be dealt with by the proper authorities. But the other 15 year old escaped before the police arrived. She will certainly be found.

The girls are minors so the law will be more lenient on them. If charges are proffered against them, the law will certainly treat them as minors. But affiliating with a terror organization is a serious charge - even for a minor.

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Al Qaeda Takes a Main Route in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It was two days of non-stop battle and in the end 100 Syrian soldiers were killed and 80 al Qaeda al Nusra fighters were killed.
When the fighting stopped control of the strategic base in Wadi Deif which controls the central artery between Damascus in the South and Aleppo in the north switched hands.

Now the essential base is in the hands of al Qaeda which not only killed 100 Syrian soldiers but also captured 120 Syrian soldiers.

These numbers and many details come to us courtesy of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British group which has been the eyes and ears of the West in Syria.

This strategic base is an essential site in Syria. Whoever controls Wadi Deif has control of almost all trade and transport in Syria. Al Qaeda now has that control. But I predict that within the next week Syrian land forces and the Syrian air force will launch a campaign to retake the base.

Assad cannot allow that route to be shut down and he cannot permit the south of Syria to be cut off from the north.

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ISIS is Behind the Australian Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS and the West - so complicated and yet, so very simple.
ISIS wants to invade the West and destroy it. But Islam is multi layered and complex. Sunnis hate Shiites and Shiites hate Sunnis.

When a Shiite refugee from Iran kidnaps Australians and demands an ISIS Sunni flag, even we in the West should get recognize that things are not so simple.

The Lindt Cafe terrorist, Man Haron Monis, was inspired by ISIS.
There is no doubt about it. To deny that is to both be deceived and to deny our potential to properly protect ourselves from ISIS terror.
ISIS is not just about weapons and beheadings. ISIS has created a huge web and social network presence. ISIS Youtube videos are impressive and they inspire young people to join their mission in the West.

ISIS wants to take over the West from within. They promise their followers respect, wealth success, sex and power. And their followers believe ISIS.

That is what happened in Australia.

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Palestinians Move at UN Security Council
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 15,2014

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Jordan, a member of the United Nations Security Council, will submit a proposal for Palestinian statehood.

The draft resolution for Palestinian statehood was crafted jointly by Jordan and The Arab League. The resolution contains two elements - one of them is a deadline. By November, 2016 a Palestinian state will emerge with United Nations recognition.

The second element in the resolution is that the new state will be located within the pre 1967 borders.

This resolution will go into effect regardless of whether a negotiated resolution is reached between Israel and the Palestinians.

Everyone, supporters of Israel and supporters of Palestinian statehood alike, are wondering what the United States will do.

Will the United States use their veto? Or will the United States articulate its frustration with Israel and support Palestinian statehood by fiat and not through negotiations?

Wednesday is the day.

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Hamas Celebrates
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas held a rally earlier today. They were celebrating the 27th anniversary of their creation.

For the rally, Hamas brought out their rockets and their elite teams. Hamas even paraded their naval commandos for all the public to see. At the end of the rally a blurry figure was shown - and Hamas asserted that it was Mohammed Deif, who Israel claimed to have killed in August. Deif was head of the Hamas military wing. As he was paraded out, an old speech of his was played.

Thousands of people, including children, marched and thousands more came to watch. For Hamas It was a huge propaganda show. Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Hamas military wing said, "Hamas was able to stop the ambitions of the Zionist enterprise and because of that, it is today on the verge of collapsing and disappearing."

Hamas leader Khalil al-Haya, shouted "After 27 years, Hamas holds aircraft and holds the sea. It has the ability to penetrate the enemy by sea, land and air. Anyone who thinks that Israel is here to stay is wrong. All of Palestine is Islamic land and no one will share it. Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine and the center of the conflict."

Propaganda is war, too.

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Hamas Tests Long Range Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas fired 3 rockets into the Mediterranean Sea earlier today. Last month they fired 4 test rockets. In October they shot test rockets two times, once into the sea and once into the Egyptian desert in Sinai. They also conducted a few tests in September.

Hamas shoots the rockets and then their spotters, positioned in likely strategic positions, watch to see where each rocket lands.

The Israeli security defense system is set up to sound alarms whenever a rocket is launched - even if it does not land in Israel.

The rockets Hamas is test shooting are M-302 rockets. They are mostly homemade, based on a Syrian design that was given to Hezbollah. They have a significant range and can hit as far as Haifa.

The head of Hezbollah named the rocket Khaiybar. Khaiybar is a dessert oasis about 70 miles east of Medina in Arabia. It features prominently in Islamic tradition. Khaiybar was a town mostly inhabited by Jews. The Jews living there rejected the teachings and prophecy of Mohammed and so they were slaughtered in what is called the Battle of Khaiybar.

The choice of weapon should be no surprise, neither is the choice of name for this weapon. Hamas is not just rebuilding, they are testing and improving their systems.

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Germany Clamping Down on Jihadis
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

This week a court in Frankfurt convicted a German homegrown jihadist of membership in ISIS. The trial went on for four years.

Another trial is taking place in Stuttgart. A Lebanese German is being tried for joining ISIS in Syria and then returning to Germany to get medical supplies and weapons.

These are the first two legal cases in Germany, trying Germans, for membership in ISIS. Germany is very concerned about this radicalization. They know that many young people have joined the fight for ISIS and they know that many more support that fight.
German federal prosecutors are investigating 83 people and regional prosecutors are investigating another 100. The estimate is that 550 Germans are fighting for ISIS right now, 60 have been killed and another 200 have returned to Germany.

How Germany is going to stem the tide towards ISIS is a real challenge. The speed of the radicalization in Germany has been dizzying. But if nothing is done to stop it, Germany will be facing an even bigger problem as soon as next year.

Kudos to Germany for tackling the problem head on.

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Iran Upset at Price of Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Since June oil prices have fallen more than 40% to under $70 per barrel.

OPEC has decided to keep output the same and not play with the supply or demand side of the price curve.
Iran is very upset.

The Iranians submitted their budget for next year and they are reducing their expectation of oil profits. They are relying on less oil profits because of the drop in price. As a result, less of their budget will be oil based. Oil sale profits will be less substantial for Iran.

Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani explained that the new budget, especially in issues of national infrastructure, will receive significantly less capital from oil profits.

Rouhani told his cabinet that the cause was "conspiracy against the interests of the region, the Muslim people and the Muslim world."

He was referring to many groups - but his primary target was Saudi Arabia which was the most significant force within OPEC making certain that oil output did not dip.

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It was Anti Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The stabbing of a Jewish man sitting and studying in a synagogue in Brooklyn, NY is a horrific act.

Authorities do not want to label act as either terror or as anti-Semitism. In their eyes those labels could potentially inflame the community - and they are trying to calm the community.
But it was anti - Semitism. The stabbing cannot and should not be interpreted any other way.

Even if Calvin Peters, the perpetrator of this act of anti-Semitic targeting and terror, was homeless or bipolar or arrested 19 times - shouting the words "kill the Jews" and stabbing a Jew in a synagogue is anti-Semitic.

His actions spoke as loud as his words. Peters came in and out of the place of worship. When he came back in, he started stabbing and shouting. He chose a target that was Jewish. Peters came from Valley Stream. Valley Stream is on Long Island, it is a significant journey from there to Brooklyn. He did not stab anyone in Valley Stream.

NY authorities have been playing down the terror and the anti-Semitic side of events of late. NY and US authorities have difficulty calling any lone wolf a terror attack - by their definition, the act
needs to be organized before it can be labeled an act of terror.

I wholeheartedly disagree.

This attack is different from the brutal stabbing in a synagogue in Jerusalem - but it did not happen in a vacuum. The Jerusalem terrorists claim to have been politically and religiously motivated, they professed the credo of Hamas. The Brooklyn, NY terrorist is, perhaps, emotionally unstable, but he clearly knew that he was attacking Jews. Knives were used in both attacks. And where did
Calvin Peters come up with the idea of bringing a knife to a synagogue - knives are not commonly used as the weapons of choice in the United States when the attacker does not personally know the victim.

We must face the facts and call these attacks what they are. They are, both the attack in New York and the attack in Jerusalem, violent anti-Semitic acts.

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Hamas Delegation in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A delegation of high level Hamas leaders touched down in Iran on Monday morning for meetings that are scheduled to takes place over the next few days.

The meetings are being called a new chapter in Iranian Hamas relations. The Hamas leaders are expected to meet with numerous Iranian leaders.

This is a very important trip. Iran wants to be the supporters of Hamas. They want a foothold in Sunni society in the Palestinian world and in the greater Arab world. There is a natural tension between Sunni and Shiites. But Hamas needs the money that Iran can give them and they are willing to push that difference aside in order to receive the badly needed support.

As a rule, the Islamic world sees Iran as a pariah. The Iranians are not part of the mainstream of Islamic world leadership. But Iran has a plan to move themselves into world Islamic leadership. Part of that plan includes being the benefactor or sponsors - and even the protector of the Palestinians.

Iran has big plans for this relationship.

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What Arab Leaders Think of Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I just read a fascinating and insightful piece about the upcoming Israeli elections. The piece was written from the point of view of the halls of leadership in the Arab world. In other words, what are they saying in the palaces. What do the kings and emirs think about the upcoming elections in Israel.

The overall consensus as expressed by the piece is that the entire Arab world would like current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to fail and be replaced with a Labor/Lapid moderate government.

From Egypt to Jordan to Saudi Arabia all the palaces of power despise Netanyahu the article reported.

While it is clear the Arab world can wish for whatever they want, in the real world there is almost no scenario in which Netanyahu does not, once again, emerge as prime minister of Israel.

It is almost a waste of time to consider the alternatives. Certainly the palaces of the Middle East have the money to get better analysis. Tsk, tsk. As I said, it was a fascinating and insightful read - but also very off base.

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Israel Strikes Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Media reports and the internet have been lit up about two Israeli strikes against military sites near Damascus.

The reports ran on Hezbollah, Syrian, Lebanese and even Christian websites. All the reports are spin-offs using the same material, just rehashing it. The most important points are that no one was hurt and that the sites were located outside Damascus.

Other intelligence says that the sites stored S-300 rockets. S-300s are the Russian made and Iranian marketed rockets with a range of up to 150 miles. They are a serious threat to Israel both from Syrian and from Hezbollah. Their launcher is very large. It looks like a very long and wide tube that sits on the ground or on the back of a semi truck. The rockets themselves are very large, 23-25-feet long.
They weigh about 4000 lbs and carry a 400 lb warhead.
Israel will neither confirm nor deny that they struck the depot of weapons. But all indications appear that this is an Israeli operation.

Israel needs to always prune back the technology and the abundance of sophisticated weapons that her enemies procure but they cannot destroy all weapons. These actions do not eliminate the weapons - they just make certain that Hezbollah does not have too many of them. This is a very different kind of defense.

The principle is -- the fewer sophisticated weapons the less likely you are to use them.

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Danish Court Convicts Muslim of Incitement
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The other day, in Copenhagen, a Danish court ruled that inciting terror included statements on facebook accounts.

A Danish bookseller, originally from Morocco, named Sam Monsour posted "We are all terrorists, and we are proud." Monsour and his lawyer argued that it was free speech in a free country and they actually drew the parallel to the Danish cartoonists that lampooned the prophet Mohammed.

There are several huge issues at hand. One might expect this reaction from a book seller - but the lawyer should know better.
Lampooning a historical figure, regardless of how venerated, is a clear issue of free speech. The fact that people were insulted by a cartoon does not violate an issue of free speech. Being insulted is not one of the rules used to limit free speech. That is just disrespect and poor taste.

However, preaching hatred and inciting violence _ that needs to be reined in by the law.

So the Danish court is correct.

There is some latitude. The court could have ruled that it was freedom of speech simply because Monsour was on line and was siding with the terrorists.

But given the environment in Europe at this very moment, the court felt that they had to stem the tide of public affinity with terror.
The court made a clear connection between public affinity and the support of terror and the terror itself.

This should be the direction courts take regarding terror in all Western democracies. Publicly supporting acts of terrorism is a form of incitement to terror. Publicly supporting terror justifies the destructive acts of terror.

And that should never be condoned or allowed.

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Good Part of Elections
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

March 17 is the day new elections will be held in Israel.

Israeli elections have always been a fascinating blend, a combination of pathos and humor. This election will be no exception. Old parties die, new parties emerge, large parties shrink and traditional parties break up.

Over the next three months we will see a slew of ads and jingles and bumper stickers portraying the ideals, visions and foibles of each party.

Beyond the failed parties and the arrogance, however, something great emerges. Israelis will spend the next three months debating and discussing the priorities of their state.

That discussion is enormously positive.

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Ugly New Anti Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In Moscow yesterday a Jewish student was brutally beaten just outside his yeshiva. Literally, he was 20 yards from the entrance of the school. Three attackers armed with brass knuckles beat him in the head and caused serious damage.

During the beating they shouted terrible anti- Semitic slurs. The attackers took no money.

Add to this two more cases of blatant and evil anti-Semitism that took place in the past two weeks. A Jewish man in Antwerp was stabbed. And a Jewish woman was raped near Paris.

These attacks were all clearly anti- Semitic.

What is essential to understand is that Jews are feeling threatened all over the world - and even in Western countries that were once host to the rise of Western freedoms.

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Why Bibi Is Going For Elections
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It seems that early elections will be taking place in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has already fired many of his ministers and pulled his support from the Cabinet.

According to sources, elections will take place on March 17. The heads of the various parties need to be consulted and the date will be selected.

I am going to let you in on a big secret. There is no need for this upcoming election. Netanyahu could have kept the coalition together. There will be an election because Netanyahu wants an early election. He wants to reshuffle his coalition - to bring in the ultra orthodox and oust the moderates.

Now here comes a bigger secret. Netanyahu is constantly conducting polls for internal consumption only, what are called internal polls.
The prime minister has devoted or, better yet, invested a small fortune in polling. There is never too much polling info. Suffice it to say that the current prime minister would never even engage in election talk unless he had very positive polling information.

Netanyahu is hoping for the implosion of several of the new parties.
He is assuming that he will hold on to or even gain some of the seats that will be the casualties of the implosion. Even if he drops a seat or two, Netanyahu will be fine as long as no other party gains seats.

Even before his present government comes to an official end, Bibi Netanyahu has a very good sense of what the next political landscape will look like. And it pleases him.

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New Elections in Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

People in Israel are talking about national elections.

Analysts are saying that the prime minister is floundering and that the final straw is that the finance minister and he have come to an impasse.

The problem with this analysis… which is correct ... is that it assumes that there will be a reshuffle with a new election.

Yes there will be a reshuffling - but not with the traditional parties. If there were an election tomorrow there is no doubt that the big losers would be the new parties. It is the new parties which would suffer the most.

The current leading party, Likud, may lose some seats but Likud would still be the party to beat and Likud would be the winning party.

Other than Likud, there really is no party or leader on the horizon. The parties which want to flex their muscles and apply pressure to pull down the government in a vote of no confidence would actually be weakening their own current political power and their own positions.


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Abbas Provokes Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas made a provocative announcement to the Arab media yesterday.

Abbas proclaimed that Hamas and Israel are conducting secret talks.
The Palestinian leader asserted that Hamas and Israel coordinate their public announcements. He said that it seems easier for Israel to talk and coordinate with Hamas than for them to conduct discussions with the PA.

Of course there have been indirect conversations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt has been the intermediary and has successfully brokered deals by relaying information between the two parties.

But Israel does not speak directly to Hamas.

Abbas is correct when he says that it is very difficult to get Israel and the PA to speak - even when the US is the intermediary. The main reason for the difficulty is that both parties continue to point the finger at one another and do not seem to be interested in sitting down with each another.

Abbas is always blaming Israel.

Instead of blaming each other, Israel and the Palestinian Authority should sit down and start talking.

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Terror in Nigeria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A set of bombs and a hail of machine gunfire killed at least 120 and wounded 270 people in Kano, Nigeria's second largest city.

The bombs and the bullets exploded in the central mosque right in the middle of the city. The people had gathered to hear the Imam speak.

All signs suggest that the attack was the work of Boko Haram. The attack was very similar to many others that have struck the area since September - all of them perpetrated by Boko Haram.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan called on people to unite and fight the terrorists.

He said: "continue to take every step to put an end to the reprehensible acts of all groups and persons involved in acts of terrorism."

He asked the people of Nigeria: "to remain united to confront the common enemy."

Boko Haram has terrified the people of Nigeria. The only way to defeat the terror of Boko Haram is for the masses to stand up against Boko Haram.

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ISIS Shuts Off Phones
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Mosul is a city of 2 million people. It is the second largest city in Iraq. And Mosul is controlled by ISIS.

This week ISIS turned off all cell phone and telephone service in Mosul. Can you imagine a city without phones in November of 2014?
What was the ISIS rational for this decision? Most people would probably say it was the nefarious influence of the web on smart phones. NO!!!

ISIS believes that the people of Mosul were informing on their activities to members of the Iraqi army. And ISIS believes that the information was being used to attack ISIS targets. So the best option to stymie the flow of information was to cut off the source --- the phone.

Interestingly, the internet system in Mosul is still up and running. That system uses a different network and has not been affected. I would guess that the ISIS will figure that out pretty soon and that internet will soon be turned off too.

And when that happens, the city of Mosul will really be closed down, shut off, out of contact, groping around in the dark.

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Israel Proposal to Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 27, 2014
I've Been Thinking:

A proposal for a bill to fight terror is in the works in Israel. The bill was developed by Likud member Yair Levin at the request of the Prime Minister.

The bill contains eight significant points. Some of those points will almost certainly be struck down by the Supreme Court for violating the "basic law." There will be some conditions within the bill that apply only to those in the West Banks - that comes under

the Army Code of Law and is determined using military and security guidelines.

It is not yet a perfect bill, but it is certainly a very good start.

Here are the highlights of the plan:

Anyone caught involved in acts of terror or in supporting terror will lose their Israeli citizenship or Palestinian Authority residency.

After completing a prison term, those people will be deported.

Terrorists will not receive a funeral.

There will be no transfer of the body of a terrorist and the body will be buried in an unknown location.

Houses of terrorists will be destroyed within 24 hours.

Anyone caught throwing stones or firebombs, etc. will remain remanded until trial. Illegal protests include the waving of enemy flags. Anyone waving the Palestinian flag will be arrested. Anyone participating in illegal protests will lose their social benefits and driver's license for 10 years.

Family members of terrorists who supported the acts of terror will lose their citizenship and will be deported to Gaza. That support includes social media and internet.

Businesses that print posters and materials that support terror will be closed.

Some of these items are anti-democratic in nature and will never pass the Knesset. But others will.

The Supreme Court of Israel will certainly weigh in heavily on the material contained in this bill.

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ISIS Earns $45 Mill in Ransom
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Security Council Committee on Counter Terrorism was briefed yesterday.

The most salient point to come out of the regular briefing was that
over the past year, ISIS has earned $45 million in ransom.

The amount is baffling. ISIS has made kidnapping for ransom a very good industry.

In the West, especially in America, we see photos and video of the kidnappings and the beheadings - and we are appalled. What everyone must understand, however, is that almost everything we know about what transpires in ISIS captivity and almost everything we know about the ISIS victims comes from those hostages who have been freed by ransom. The dead cannot talk.

US policy on ransom will shock many people. It is not something the Administration advertises. It is their big secret.

The United States refuses to pay ransoms and has intimidated the families of hostages not to pay. The United States government has even threatened to prosecute families who wanted to raise money to ransom their loved ones.

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Erdogan Again Puts Foot in Mouth
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Should I write a column about Turkish President Erdogan or should I just collect a list of his most ridiculous comments? What a dilemma!

For example:

Remember last week Erdogan said that it was Muslims who discovered America and not Columbus? Well, yesterday Erdogan said that women and men are not equal. He said that women, especially feminists, cannot possibly understand the special role women have in Islam.
They should be mothers.

Erdogan said, "You cannot put women and men on an equal footing." He said, "It is against nature. They were created differently. Their nature is different. Their constitution is different." Erdogan continued, "Motherhood is the highest position ... You cannot explain this to feminists. They don't accept motherhood. They have no such concern."

Earlier this year he said that women should have at least three children.

Erdogan is a deeply religious Muslim and the party he created is an Islamic party. He is clearly trying to pull back from the great democratic freedoms that have enveloped Turkey over the years.

Every time Erdogan opens his mouth to speak about women his anti-women sentiments become more pronounced -- and more ridiculous.

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Iran Deal: No Plan B
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The deadline for decisions about Iran and nuclear talks is upon us. Obviously, no agreement has been reached.

An extension will be arranged.

Iran and the West have different sets of objectives. The West very much wants the agreement. But Iran is not about to compromise on two basic issues.

Iran does not want to dismantle their 10,000 operational centrifuges and scale back the 9,000 more that are nearly operational. They want all 19,000.

And Iran wants a quick removal of sanctions - they will not even consider the option of a ten year, slow removal, process during which the international community checks and verifies that they continue to live by the agreement.

The United States has already shown flexibility on the numbers of centrifuges. But 19,000 is way too many. And the US will not immediately lift the sanctions.

Bottom line: neither party trusts the other.

But trust is not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that the United States has no "Plan B".

The United States has no backup plan other than to enlist the help of China and Russia. And while it is true that China and Russia are not in favor of a nuclear Iran, neither are they keen on going to the mat on this issue - especially because they would be doing the bidding of the United States.

This is a real problem.

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Germany Says Dialogue is the Only Way
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 22, 2014

"I've Been Thinking:"

The move to recognize Palestine has been dizzying. Parliament after parliament, country after country, has been voting in support of Palestinian state recognition.

But Germany has said no.

On Friday German Chancellor Merkel announced, rather emphatically, that Germany supports a two-state solution and "we see how difficult that is, so we also believe that unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state won't move us forward."

Merkel explained that the two sides look distant right now and dialogue is not immediately on the horizon. She said "that appears very difficult in the current conditions."

She continued saying that none the less it should be clear - the only way to create a Palestinian state is through dialogue and not through fiat and votes in parliaments around the world.

Merkel is correct. A Palestinian state will only emerge through an agreement with Israel. Because, in the end, a Palestinian state can not exist without the support of Israel.

I just wish everyone else understood what Merkel understands.

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Hamas Plots to Murder
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It should come as no surprise that Hamas wants to attack Israel and part of that plan would absolutely include assassinating Israeli leaders. The more prominent the leader, better. The more vocally anti-Arab the leader, the better.

Israeli intelligence has successfully arrested a Hamas cell for plotting the assassination of Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman.

The plan was extremely detailed. The most important dimension of the plan focused on the essential fact that Lieberman lived in Nokdim, a settlement in the Gush Etzion area. Lieberman traveled through the West Bank at least twice a day.

The nature of the roads and the topography of the West Bank provided an important element of the perfect assassination plot. The Hamas cell procured RPG's (Rocket Propelled Grenades) which they planned on sitting atop a hill in order to target the minister as he drove thru the area en route to Jerusalem. Lieberman is the only minister who lives in the West Bank.

Lieberman would be a prize target. Thankfully the cell was discovered.

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How to Stop Lone Wolf
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

People have been declaring that it is impossible to defend against the lone wolf terrorist. Wrong ... it just takes different tools.

The best tool is to change the atmosphere and create a sense of trust and economic hope. It is harder than it sounds, but it is essential. When political and economic issues improve there will be less interest in terror.

This does not happen overnight.

Almost all these lone wolves are connected both religiously and politically. That nexus needs to be identified, it needs to be monitored on the web and monitored through real intel.

Israel also needs to increase the number of agents working in those communities from which the terrorist come. Lone wolves do not come ex nihilo, they come from an environment rich and saturated in this hatred. Identify the environments, monitor them and then shut them down.

Arrest agitators and arrest leaders who preach and write and support terror. Stop local religious and political leaders who inspire the terrorists.

Jewish extremists need to be reined in too. Jewish extremists need to act within the limits of the law and not step outside the law.

Strengthening and utilizing local Jewish community volunteer resources and the civil guard will help increase the numbers of alert trained personnel to assist in protecting their communities.

Finally, there needs to be an increased number of soldiers and police in locations that are high risk and in communities that foment terror - that is another way to deter terrorists, even lone wolf terrorists.

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This Terror was a Game Changer
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The terror attack in Jerusalem yesterday is a game changer, it is an absolute watershed.

Let me explain why: The attack took place in a synagogue -- no one, not even the most secular person, can understand how Palestinians could attack Jews in the act of prayer. Americans, especially US leadership, were shocked. Even Muslim leadership in certain parts of the world were stunned that the terrorists chose to murder people in the act of prayer.

The attack place in Jerusalem where Israel is in charge of security - not the Palestinian Authority.

The two terrorists who perpetrated this attack came from within
Jerusalem. They were from a Jerusalem that, in 1967, was offered
Israeli citizenship. Rather than citizenship the villagers chose to become permanent residents. People ask how the terrorists were able to get in to Jerusalem. They did not have to get in, they were in, these terrorists lived in Jerusalem.

In the aftermath, Palestinian Incitement continues. Even as Abbas condemned the attack, he justified the attack by giving it context. Abbas explained that it is because of the occupation and Israeli disrespect of Al Aksa that the attack was perpetrated.

This attack was not spontaneous. It was planned. The terrorists knew the workings and timing of the synagogue. A huge amount of preparation went into this attack.

Was not a single lone wolf at least 2 were involved if not more.

The many of victims were dual citizens - 3 were Americans and one from Great Britain.

Was not on the seam of the city between Arab and Jewish sides of Jerusalem.

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ISIS Butchers Innocents
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has murdered well over 1400 people, all non-combatants. Thousands have been killed in battle.

This group of 1400 victims were beheaded, shot in the back, had their throats or were stoned. Brutal mass murders, most of them carried out in towns after ISIS members entered the area, gathered the relatives of opposing fighters - and butchered them.

It is impossible for the Western mind to comprehend how a military force can sponsor the murder of so many civilians. It is all part of the ISIS master plan. In order to reduce military opposition, ISIS intimidates the masses. If you challenge ISIS and lose, ISIS will search out you and your family and publicly murder you all.

That alone is enough to convince would-be opponents not to challenge ISIS.

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Palestinian Music Video -Calls to Destroy Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are several effective forms of mass media today - a handful are gripping.
Video shorts, 30 seconds to 4 minutes long, sound, music, stills and motion shots blend to create a message. Some of the messages go viral.

Over the summer Palestinians produced a short music video called: "up, hit, bomb, do terrorist acts."

The video turned into a hit. It glorified terror. The production was gritty. It was performed in broken Hebrew with Hebrew and Arabic subtitles. The Arabic "B" sound replaced the "P" sound. Most Arabs cannot say the "P" sound and there is no hard "P" in the Arabic.

The same group came out with another video short. Also in Hebrew, this one was far better performed and produced. See for yourself at:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4591242,00.html

This video talks about destroying Israel by way of the new Intifada. The producers show a great deal of knowledge about the Israeli army and Israeli history. It is graphic and it is powerful.

Worst of all, this music video proclaims - through words and music - that every Arab participate in the fight to defeat Israelis and destroy Israel.

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Muslims DID NOT Discover America!
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Absurd and ridiculous are the first two words that came to mind when I read that Turkish leader Erdogan addressed a conference of Muslims from Latin America and informed the group that Muslims discovered
America - not Columbus, and that Columbus actually wrote that in his diaries.

"Contacts between Latin America and Islam date back to the 12th century. Muslims discovered America in 1178, not Christopher Columbus."
"Muslim sailors arrived in America from 1178. Columbus mentioned the existence of a mosque on a hill on the Cuban coast."
"I would like to talk about it to my Cuban brothers. A mosque would go perfectly on the hill today," the Turkish leader said.

Erdogan is wrong. The quote he gave is not from Columbus or from his diary - it is from Bartoleme de Casa who rewrote the ship logs from his own point of view and through his own eyes. And the actual quote goes: "has a hill on its summit like a graceful mosque."

De Casa was describing what they called San Salvador. He was hardly describing a mosque on the hill. Actually, quite the opposite!

The irony of it all is that de Casa was most probably a converso - he was from a Jewish family that had been forcibly converted to Christianity.

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ISIS Minting Money
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS, or as they call themselves the Islamic State, announced yesterday that they are beginning to mint their own money.

ISIS coins are minted out of gold, silver and cooper. According to the announcement, the purchasing strength of the money would be the weight of the metal. In other words - the market value of gold would be the weight of the gold piece. The same for the silver and cooper coins.

All the coins read: Islamic State/A Caliphate Based on the Doctrine of the Prophet.

One coin is a map of the world, symbolizing how Islam will soon conquer the world.

One coin has a sword and shield, symbolizing jihad.

One coin has the image of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem. The point of this coin is the connection between the Islamic State and grand Arab and Muslim issues and the Palestinian quest.

As they say, money talks!

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ISIS & Al Qaeda Unite
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There had been rumors about ISIS and al Qaeda agreeing to put their differences aside and join forces to fight their common enemies.

So I was not surprised yesterday when AP reported, in a tiny little release, that ISIS and al Qaeda of Syria are now working together.

This puts another huge obstacle in the way of the US led coalition as it tries to fight ISIS and al Qaeda. The most important problem that emerges as a result of the unification of ISIS and al Qaeda forces is that they will now totally intimidate, decimate or even annihilate any moderate forces within Syria. Moderates will go into hiding and never be found.

The United States had been counting on those moderates and planned to arm and even train them. When ISIS and al Qaeda were warring factions there was a chance that the United States could put them under their wings. But if they unite, fear alone will paralyze all moderates.

As a united front, ISIS and al Qaeda can pool resources. That means that they can share money and share intel. It is a good match. ISIS has a lot of money and less intel. Al Qaeda has more intel and less money. It also means sharing weapons and training each another on new weapons.

This is only bad. Now add to the mix the CNN report that President Obama charged his senior analysts with figuring out how to fight ISIS and oust Assad. According to the report Obama believes that defeating ISIS will require toppling Assad.

The situation is looking very grim. Ousting Assad and fighting ISIS and al Qaeda are entirely different missions. The unification of al Qaeda and ISIS will certainly fill any power vacuum that may be - created especially if Assad is ousted.

This is a mess and the White House is making it even messier.

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World Wide Intifada
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The riots and the protests, the rocks and the Molotov cocktails, the car attacks and the van attacks - they are the weapons Palestinians are using in confrontations with Israel.

And they are extremely dangerous.

Around the world Palestinians and their allies are also attacking Israel. The attacks are sometimes physical, but most often and far more dangerous are the attacks on college campuses and in the media.

There are protests and rallies shouting death to Israel. There is an overall rejection of Israel. There is a tone that Israel is wrong and evil. In most of these places, the case for Israel is at best faint, more often it is non- existent.

Youth, especially campus youth, are being poisoned by this terrible anti-Israel tone. The consequences are huge. An erosion of support for Israel among the youth of today - those who will become the leaders of the future, is a certainty.

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New Intifada and ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is a strange and unusual blend. I am talking about the combination of motivations that roll into the violence/riots/unrest between Israel and the Palestinians.

Previous Intifadas were mostly motivated by politics. After that Palestinian frustrations grew out of political dead ends. And of course in the background there were religious tones. This unrest is different.

This unrest has strong political issues. But it is also fueled by strong feelings of revenge. And finally religion is playing a role.
One part of the religious push is a conspiracy theory that Israel wants to take over and destroy al Aksa and the Temple Mount. The second is ISIS. The idea is to get rid of any non believer.

Yesterday a 17 year old boy was arrested in Jerusalem with a large knife hidden in the lining of his pants. After he was arrested he shouted at the police "ISIS and Hamas will take care of all of you."

Religious issue are becoming even more significant. This Intifada is taking on a character of its own.

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Abbas Says Will Move Arafat to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the tenth anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat.

Two very significant things happened yesterday. Hamas in Gaza cancelled a rally in honor of Arafat saying that they could not protect attending participants. There has not been ceremony since 2007.

Second, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced that he is planning to transfer the shrine of Arafat from Ramallah to Jerusalem. The announcement was made in MA'AN the official Palestinian media outlet.

Making such an announcement is an invitation to the Palestinians masses to take to the streets to riot in Jerusalem. This announcement by Abbas about Arafat on such a day is a call for Palestinians to fight in Jerusalem.

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Intifada Or Not
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

They are calling it the "Silent Intifada." In Arabic, some are referring to it as the "Automobile Intifada."

It is certainly a period of rioting and unrest. And over the past few weeks the level and intensity of the violence has waxed and waned.

The word "Intifada" is a hard word to translate. Most people just say, uprising, resistance or rebellion. The root in Arabic actually means to shake off, even to shake up, to awaken and, to get them to stand up.

The word "Intifada" was first used in 1965 to describe politics in Bahrain when leftists rose up against British colonial power. In 1970 the term was used again as the "Zemla Intifada" against the Spanish in the Sahara.

"Intifada" became best known as a term during what is now called the First Palestinian Intifada which lasted from 1987-1993. And then it resurfaced during the Second Palestinian Intifada from 2000- 2005.

And now - the Silent Intifada. This Intifada gets its name because there is no organized controlling power. The two previous
Palestinian Intifadas were well organized and perpetrated by trained leaders and organizers.

While this Intifada is certainly being egged on by leaders, there is no Tanzim identifying targets and orchestrating demonstrations. This Intifada thrives on spontaneity. It can spin out of control or it can fizzle out at any moment. Or it can linger for a long time creating a low level, constant, terror and rock threat.

Interestingly, the most powerful force in a spontaneous riot is Mother Nature. When it rains or is cold outside, fewer people participate. The good news here is that the region is in the rainy season and it is getting darker earlier. I would guess that the weather will put a damper on this Silent Intifada.

That is of course unless it gets organized.

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More Conflict in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

More violence in Jerusalem. Riot erupted as the second Jewish victim of Wednesday's terror attack, Shlomo Baadani, was buried. Not Jewish riots - Arab riots.

At Baadani's funeral Sepharadi Chief Rabbi Yitzak Yosef spoke and told people to stop going up to the Temple Mount. "We need to stop this, only then will the people of Israel's blood not be spilt."
Rabbi Yosef demanded that people listen and not ascend and visit the holy site. He said that stepping in the wrong place on the Mount is a sin that is punishable by death. He said: "It's inconceivable that b-rate rabbis will argue with Israel's most prominent and prestigious rabbis."

This is not a new argument. The father of the present chief rabbi, Rabbi Ovadiah Yossef, was also Sephardic chief rabbi. His counterpart, Aschkenazi Chief Rabbi Shlomo Goren, was a major advocate of going up the Temple Mount and even wrote a very detailed book with dozens of maps describing exactly where one can and cannot step.

Rav Goren was hardly a b-rate rabbi.

There are serious questions about Jewish law and ascending the Temple Mount today. But they are hardily simple and mono-dimensional. That said, there is no doubt that the specter of Jews going up to the Temple Mount is explosive.

Since this conflict there are no groups or individuals permitted up --- only politicians and security personnel. And yet, the violence and rioting continues.

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Ultra Orthodox Jews Say Don't Go To Temple Mt
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are those trying to understand the nature and the cause of the rioting in Jerusalem. And there are those trying to cast blame.

One group says that Jews going to the Temple Mount is incendiary, just explosive. They may be correct.

The largest ultra religious paper in Israel, Yated Neeman ran an editorial telling Jews not to go to the Temple Mount and it criticized those who do go.

To quote the editorial, going up to the Temple Mount is like "throwing a match into an oil well which will bury the Middle East in smoking ashes."

The editorial blasted those Jews who want access to the Mount saying, "They are laying out a red carpet for terrorists which will only become redder with blood as the tensions are intensified. These [people] will not be satisfied until they leave behind them and their activities politically scorched earth, and when Jerusalem, which sits on a powder keg, burns with the fires of hatred."

They conclude that the Temple Mount should be officially off limits to Jews in order to maintain order. "The government of Israel must close the Temple Mount [to Jews]. It is not only a terrible security threat but more seriously an awful stumbling block for Jews, [who may violate] one of the most serious prohibitions."

The more serious prohibitions are laws and demarcations on the Temple Mount delineating exactly where only certain Jews were permitted in Temple times. Stepping in the wrong place is absolutely forbidden.

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Abbas Calls the Terrorists Martyrs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The increased number of terror attacks in Israel is troubling - but it is not surprising.

Using a car as a weapon is not a new idea. Recently, a major Hamas leader made a statement in which he said, literally, that every
Palestinian with a car has a weapon. And he said those who do not use that weapon are cowards and are betraying and forsaking the Palestinian cause.

This is to be expected from Hamas and from Hamas supporters. Hamas wants to murder Jews and Israelis.

What troubles me most is not Hamas and the terrorists - I expect them to act and to speak in this way. They are, after all, self proclaimed mass murderers. What troubles me is the reaction of Abbas.

Abbas is the president of the Palestinian Authority. He is supposed to be a partner in peace, or at least, believe in basic rules of conflict.

Abbas wrote a letter to the family of last week's terrorist Mutaz Hijazi and called him a martyr. Hijazi is the man who shot Yehudah Glick four times in the middle of Jerusalem and then jumped on his motorcycle and drove off. Abbas wrote that Hijazi was a martyr and he will be sent to heaven.

And what do you think Abbas called the perpetrator of yesterday's terror attack, Ibrahim al Arki, who murdered one person and injured fourteen others? Abbas also called him a martyr.

Where are the leaders of the free world? Where are the Americans? Why has no one called Abbas on the table for these comments? These endorsements are carte blanch invitations to perpetrate terror.

The double standard is so blatant - the world is telling Palestinians that they can do no wrong. And that is not right.

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Saudis Buy Weapons For Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is buying $3 billion worth of arms and weapons from France.
The weapons are being stockpiled in order to defend Lebanon - once known as the Switzerland of the Middle East, from extremists ... from all kinds of extremists.

Lebanon is in need of real serious materials to assist them in defending their country. They need defense against ISIS, al Qaeda, Hezbollah and, in their minds, even against Israel.

But Lebanon does not have an extra $3 billion sitting around to procure weapons.

Saudi Arabia stepped up and plopped down the cash. Not a loan - the Saudis gave the Lebanese a gift. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the Protector of the Sunni World. Lebanon is caught in the middle of a series of major conflicts. Their biggest conflict is between Sunnis and Shiites.

Despite the current conflict with ISIS, the most dramatic issue confronting the Muslim world is the internal conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. Sunni Saudis want to insure that Lebanon is not toppled by Shiite Hezbollah. They want to make certain that neither ISIS nor al Qaeda move into Lebanon.


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US Supreme Court Hears Jerusalem Case
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Menachem Zivotofsky is 12 years old. He was born in Jerusalem in 2002.

Yesterday the nine members of the US Supreme Court heard all about Menachem. His parents want the US passport of their son to read "Jerusalem, Israel" in the box designated for place of birth. As of now, all US citizens born in Jerusalem have simply the word "Jerusalem" in their passports. The box for country is blank.

In 1995 Congress passed a law clearly stating that Jerusalem was the capital of Israel. In 2002 Congress passed another law saying that the United States should move its embassy to Jerusalem and that US passports should read Jerusalem, Israel.
George Bush signed that law.

The US Administration and State Department argue that adding the word "Israel" in passports would undermine United States power and interests. Their legal argument is a constitutional one. They claim that foreign policy is determined by the president and that Congress has overstepped its bounds and that the law is unconstitutional.

The sixty minute arguments were on that issue alone. The case for the Zivotofsky family was eloquently presented by Alyza Lewin. It looks like the nine justices are split down the middle - the swing vote is Justice Anthony Kennedy. From his questions he seemed to truly be undecided.

Justice Elana Kagan paralleled this case to that of selective vanity license plates. Pro-Israel US citizens would be able to choose Jerusalem, Israel for their passports but pro-Palestine US citizens would not be able to have them say Jerusalem, Palestine.

It could go either way. In June the decision of the justices will be made public.

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Hamas Blocks UN Aid for Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has been blocking the United Nations from supplying the people of Gaza with UN aid and services.

Hamas leadership is not pleased with the plan that the United Nations proposed in September, after the 50 day conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Hamas expressed their reluctance then and now they are refusing to permit the UN to distribute badly needed resources.

Hamas has a reason. According to the UN plan, Hamas is sidelined in the revitalization and rebuilding of Gaza process. According to the UN plan, they are not the people distributing and/or receiving the goods.

That means that Hamas will be powerless and unable to exert control locally.

It also means that hundreds of tons of cement and other building supplies are just sitting behind fences and armed guards - unwanted and unused. The badly needed supplies have been there for more than a month. I expect that there will be no resolution to this standoff in the near future.

So close - and yet, so far away.

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Tension in Jerusalem Could Cause World Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions in Jerusalem are still high - but it appears that calm might yet prevail.

How and why tension rose and are slowly dropping is not a simple story. Let's just start with Wednesday.

On Wednesday night there was an attempted assassination of Yehudah Glick, an activist for Jewish access to the Temple Mount. The attack took place in the middle of Jerusalem.

On Thursday the Israeli government joined by the Israeli police determined that the attempted assassination had crossed a red line.
In response they decided to shut down the al Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount, the third most holy site in Islam. Palestinians and Arab and Muslim leaders interpreted the closing as an assault against all of Islam. Some called for a massive uprising. Jordan's king called it state terror.

On Friday Israel modified the closure of the mosque and al Aqsa was reopened. People aged 50 and over were permitted to enter and to pray. This is a common restriction in times of tension.

On Saturday nature intervened. It rained so there was little conflict, just a fire bomb thrown at police in Shuafat, just north of Jerusalem.

On Sunday the Israeli cabinet voted to increase the punishment for rock throwing to 20 years in prison. The Jordanian king said that the Jordanians would defend Muslim rights at the mosque. There was a massive rally of Jews in support of Yehudah Glick who is still in critical, but stable, condition. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he was continuing the famous status quo on the Temple Mount. He also called on all leaders to exercise calm. He instructed them not to stoke the flames of anger.

Actions taken and not taken over the next few days will determine if the region - or for that matter the world, will go into greater conflict.

Cool heads must prevail.

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Israeli Technology Fighting Ebola
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has developed two technologies that will help fight Ebola.

The first technology is a made-to-specifications special pop-up isolation tent. The technology was created by an Israeli company called SYS. All that is needed are the desired dimensions and details and the tent will be delivered in only two weeks.

So far Ebola has been detected in eight countries. 10,000 people have contracted Ebola and 50% have died from it. These tents control the contamination. They also come with special stretchers to isolate the patient in transit to the tent.

The system utilizes positive air technology to create a hermetically sealed system. Many airports and hospitals have already placed their orders. The SYS tents are already being used in Guinea.

The other technology that Israel has developed is for an infrared thermometer which can be used in airports to detect if travelers have a temperature.

These new products developed by and marketed in Israel will both save lives and control the spread of Ebola.

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Attack in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The attempted assassination of Yehudah Glick, in the middle of Jerusalem, just outside the Menachem Begin Center, marks a new low point for the city and for Palestinian - Israeli relations.

The shooter actually got very close to Glick, an activist and extremely vocal proponent of the rights of Jews to traverse on the Temple Mount. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Glick's political point of view, the attack set a new nadir. The shooter confirmed that it was Glick by asking his name. Then he shot him four times - in the head, the neck, the chest and the arm and fled on a motorcycle.

As the news spread, Israelis were in communal shock. Such a brazen act of terror in the heart of Jerusalem is deeply worrisome. This heinous act was not simply an assassination attempt. It was an expression of the desire to ignite a full blown Intifada.

When nighttime came, the sky was lit up by fireworks in celebration of the attack. Yes, Palestinians in Jerusalem were elated that Glick was shot. To them it was an act of courage and heroism.

That is hard to comprehend.

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Egypt Attacks Hamas Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is very seriously and aggressively destroying the new tunnels that Hamas has dug from Gaza into Egypt.

It is through those tunnels that terrorists smuggled themselves and their weapons into Egypt and were able to conduct an attack against
Egyptian soldiers, killing 31 Egyptian military personnel.

Egypt has now evacuated every home and every building which borders Gaza. They are instituting a buffer zone. That buffer zone will protect Egyptians from Gaza and from the tunnels.

The exact dimensions of the buffer zone are still unclear. It will certainly vary according to specific locations. But it is clear that the buffer zone will reach far enough into Egypt to make it very difficult for Gazans to burrow under.

Understand - this does not mean there will be no more tunnels.
Creating a serious buffer zone means there will be significantly fewer tunnels. It means that building the tunnels will be more difficult. It means that entering Egypt and committing acts of terror will happen less frequently. It means that life just got harder for the terrorists of Gaza.

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Pressure Building on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is being squeezed in a diplomatic vice grip. Israel is being pressured into accepting a two-state solution.

The United States and the European Union have publicly denounced the decision by Israel to build 1000 housing units in East Jerusalem.
They both used similar language in their official comments suggesting that Israel cannot be serious about peace when they continue to build.

The US and the EU and frankly, almost every other country, is trying to understand why Israel continues to build. Unfortunately, it will be very difficult to convince any of those nations of the inherent right of Israel to build - even if the areas being developed will almost certainly fall within Israel in any future agreement with the Palestinians.

The problem the United States has is not legal. The US sees building as a direct act of breaking down any sense of trust that might possibly emerge diplomatically.

And so, the US, the EU and just about every other Western country has concluded that current Israeli leadership is simply not interested in a two-state solution. These nations believe Israeli leadership is making up excuses and buying time. They see the Israelis as not fully committed to finding a negotiated resolution.

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Israel - Jordan to Sign Gas Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan and Israel are about to sign an energy agreement.
Israel will provide 600 million cubic feet of gas per day to Jordan for 15 years. The deal should save Jordan $1.5 billion per year.

Jordan has been suffering since the collapse of the pipeline from Egypt, which ran through Israel, was destroyed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan used to receive 80% of their natural gas through that pipeline. Now, two years later, they struggle to find natural gas to power their electricity.

Due to population increases Jordan's natural gas demands have increased by about $6 billion per year. They have great difficulty keeping up with their electrical demand.

This deal will make natural gas easily accessible and extremely secure for Jordan. It is a very simple decision Yet, there was much debate and dispute about it among Jordanian parliamentarians.

The deal will be signed soon without public fanfare. It will be a new lifeline for Jordan. And it will also be an important positive link between Jordan and Israel - a link that underscores the mutual gains that emerge from good diplomatic relationships.

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US Disses Israel in DC
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Defense Minister Moshe "Boogie" Yaalon has been in Washington. Not a single member of the US Administration or even
their assistants was cleared to meet with him.

Imagine that - Washington is teaching Israel a lesson.

Yaalon and his boss Prime Minister Netanyahu have been insolent and publicly insulting to the US. Yaalon told US Secretary of State Kerry to just get his Nobel Prize and stop coming back to the region - and that is just one of his numerous public outbursts.
So when Yaalon comes to DC, no one will meet with him.

This is not childish or immature behavior. It is the way things are done. Everyone and anyone who has been involved in foreign affairs knows that the United States expects theirs friends, especially those who receive three billion dollars a year are expected to be civil towards them. If not, they will be disciplined in DC. Hence the cold shoulder.

This is simply a lesson and Israel had to know that it was going to happen.

I would have done things differently. If I were the Administration I would have scheduled the meetings and then cancelled them seconds before they were to happen to further humiliate Israel and to make certain that Yaalon could not use his time in Washington for other meetings or purposes. That way, his entire trip would be turned into a colossal waste of time.

That would not be called vindictive diplomacy, it would be appropriate diplomacy.

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US Calls Terror Attack in Jerusalem a Traffic Accident
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US Consulate in Jerusalem sent out a memo calling the murder of 3 month old United States citizen Haya Zisl Braun - a traffic accident.

Here is the exact wording of the memo.
" As of 2105 hrs Reports of unrest/demos in many EJ neighborhoods all related to earlier traffic accident near french hill"

The United States could have called it an incident, they could have called it an act or even an event. They chose to call it a traffic accident. The United States is afraid.

There are many ways to parse word and diplomats are very good at creating words or at using many words to say nothing. The situation now is that the United States does not like the word "terror."

The US has yet to call the axe wielding incident that took place in Queens, NY on Thursday terror. They officially called it "another crazy New Yorker" even though Zale Thompson, the axe wielding terrorist, changed his name to a Arabic name and posted numerous online justifications for murdering innocent people in the name of Jihad.

This is not a good sign for the United States of America.

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Nigerian President Visits Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Make sense of this. Goodluck Jonathan, the president of Nigeria, made an agreement with the terrorist group Boko Haram to free the 219 Nigerian girls who were kidnapped six months ago.

Next year there is a presidential election scheduled for Nigeria and Goodluck is the incumbent.

But today, Goodluck is arriving in Israel and visiting Jerusalem to get some good luck. Jonathan is a devout Christian and believes that Jerusalem - and specifically the Western Wall is holy and that he will get blessed by visiting. He will participate in a mass of 300 Nigerians.

Goodluck Jonathan comes to Israel as a president with a private plane and an 80 member delegation. They book 40 rooms at the brand new beautiful Jerusalem Waldorf.

I have not even gotten to the strange part yet. The strange part is that Nigeria sits on the UN Security Council. And during his stay, Israel will try to convince Goodluck Jonathan of the importance of not backing Palestinian Statehood.

Israel is deeply invested in Nigeria. About 50 Israeli energy companies operate there.

Right now Nigeria has been non committal about their stance on Palestinian statehood. Hopefully, Goodluck will get good luck and will commit to supporting Israel at the Security Council. If Nigeria supports Israel, the United States may not have to utilize their automatic veto.

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Terror & Riots in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Thankfully, there was only one death as a result of the terror attack perpetrated in Jerusalem yesterday. Tragically, the one death was that of a three month old Jewish infant name Haya Zisl Braun. Haya Zisl was buried almost immediately after she was declared dead - brutally murdered in a terror attack at the light rail station. The terrorist deliberately ran her down.

And then the rioting in Jerusalem began.

One may have thought that the rioting was by angry relatives of the three month old or by anger Jews frustrated about the death of this innocent soul.

But NO!

The rioters were Palestinians who took to the streets and threw rocks and burned tires and tried to further disrupt life in Jerusalem.

Nir Barkat, Jerusalem's mayor, a leftist by all definitions called on the police to restore order. He said "the situation in Jerusalem was intolerable." Arab violence had reached the point where the police must enter into Arab neighborhood and restore order.

Watching the video of the terror attack was surreal. A white car slowly moves out of its lane, driving between a pole and barrier and then deliberately swerves into the crowd. That is where the driver murdered Haya Zisl.

Arabs rioted after the brutal murder of a Jewish baby by an Arab driver. Jews went to the funeral to mourn with and comfort the family.

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Assad Hits 200 Sites - US Hits 7
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian air-force launched 200 strikes against rebels within the last 36 hours.

And yesterday, with the new increased intensity of the US led coalition, the United States and her allies launched 7 strikes.

At the same time Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, spoke about the US strikes against ISIS. He said that the US strike against ISIS pales in comparison to the Israeli strikes against southern Lebanon in 2006. Actually, he said that all the strikes combined do not equal a single day of Israel air strikes.

We can understand why Assad is striking the rebels. The Syrian president fully expects that the US will soon send weapons to the Syrian rebels - just like the US sent weapons to the Kurds. Assad and his air force are also taking advantage of the moment as the United States busies itself with attacks al Qaeda affiliated groups and ISIS. That way, there are fewer attacks on Assad and he is free to strike against the rebels.

200 is a heck of a lot of air strikes.

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Qatar Wants UN Directorship
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Emir of Qatar is throwing a lot of weight and a huge amount of money behind his former prime minister. The Emir is backing his PM for secretary general of the United Nations.

The Emir of Qatar wants his former prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, to take over the position of UN chief now held by Ban Ki-moon, who will vacate his post when his term concludes in 2016.

This is very problematic.

The Emir of Qatar is one of the most powerful men in the Middle East. He is also the single largest supporter of Hamas in the world.

With this kind of money and an already very well oiled campaign in place, Hamad bin Jassim will be a very serious candidate for UN secretary general. He is the man to beat - and as of now, more than a year away from the actual election, no one else is even on the docket.

If Hamad bin Jassim wins, the entire United Nations will shift directions. Overnight Israel and most of the Western world, including the United States, will become pariahs. The strength of the non aligned nations will become unprecedented.

It will be the end of the UN as we know it.

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Israel To Sell Gas to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The tables have turned!

2.5 years ago Islamic terrorists of the Muslim Brotherhood were blowing up the natural gas pipeline that led from Egypt to Israel.
They were upset that Egypt was providing gas to Israel.

Thirty months later, Israel and Egypt have signed an agreement. This time Israel is providing Egypt with natural gas and using the same pipeline. But now the pipeline is more secure. Egyptian President al Sisi believes he can provide the line the protection it needs.

Over the next 3 years Israel will regularly provide a minimum of 5 million cubic meters of natural gas to Egypt.

Egypt has not yet recovered from their internal turmoil and crisis. The Egyptian economy, especially their oil and natural gas industry, is dependent on outside powers for a jump start - and it has barely moved.

Egypt has a long way to go. They need to import. And the perfect partner is Israel which is now marketing their newly discovered natural gas resources.

Strange but true, just the way things happen in the Middle East.

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Kerry Makes A Silly Statement Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry recently made the startlingly ridiculous statement that in his travels in the Middle East "there wasn't a leader I met within the region who didn't raise with me spontaneously the need to try to get peace between Israel and the Palestinians, because it was a cause of recruitment and of street anger and agitation."

The suggestion that the lack of resolution between Israel and the Palestinians is in any way a reason for radicalism and the rise of ISIS is simply uninformed fiction.

The presence of the United States and the role of the United States in the Middle East - including the coalition, have much more to do with increased recruitment to ISIS and radicalization in the region than the lack of progress between Israel and the Palestinians.

And that is still no reason for the US to stop its involvement.

Kerry continues to stun me. How can the person responsible for US policy in the Middle East repeatedly make these ridiculous statements?

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NYC Imams Condemn Extremism
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The other day almost a dozen Imams from New York City gathered on the steps of City Hall. They announced that they were going to fight extremism.

This is a huge step forward for the Muslim community and for Muslims living in the United States.

The Imams announced that Islamic law forbids acts of terror and violence against innocent people.

The leader of the Islamic Leadership Council of Metropolitan New York, Imam Al Hajj Talib Abdur Rashid, explained that the group would now start a serious educational campaign to combat extremism. They would use the web and counter extremist propaganda.

In addition, they will educate their constituency about balance - especially the need to balance public safety issues and constitutional issues with Muslim issues.

I will monitor them carefully. I wish them good luck and great success. So far they have received no death threats from Muslim extremists.

Death threats tend to silence moderates.

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US Finally Hitting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The tide might be changing. The Kurds are scoring more points against ISIS - especially around Kobani.

The coalition against ISIS has been more and more effective in their air strikes and the Kurds of Kobani and elsewhere have been more successful in pushing ISIS back.

The United States announced that they believe that they had killed several hundred ISIS members on Wednesday. It is not clear that the Kurds now have the power of serious momentum pushing them forward, but in the short term, we are seeing a change.

So why are the coalition aerial assaults more effective this week than they were last week? Good question.

The answer is that the Kurds are currently giving the US and the coalition the proper coordinates. With proper coordinates the air strikes are making a difference.

So why did the US and the coalition not use Kurds to get them they coordinates they need earlier? Another good question.
Unfortunately, in this case there are no good answers.

I could speculate and in doing so the possible answers would not cast positive light on the United States or on the coalition.

Whatever the answers --- at least now the US and the coalition are getting intel from the Kurds.

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US Names Operation LOL
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US has now named the operation against ISIS. We know that it is a coalition of many who agree to stop ISIS - but in reality most nations are not actually doing anything.

Inherent Resolve is the name of the operation.

I think the name is very appropriate. Resolve is necessary to defeat ISIS. Inherent implies that everyone, every human being, should have that resolve.

If the message is so inherent, that may have been a reason that the operation went without a name for so long, at least until yesterday.
Now the operation has a name. Now we know what we are fighting for and what we are fighting against. And we know that we are fighting it inherently and with great resolve.

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Israel in Line for Huge Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is gearing up for a huge fight.

Not the kind you would expect. No guns or rockets, no Iron Dome.

This is a diplomatic battle.

The Parliament of the United Kingdom recently voted, in a non-binding vote, to recognize the Palestinian State. France will soon do the same. Other Western European countries will follow suit.

In addition, there is an international, primarily European, move to punish settlements and settlers and boycott Israeli products from the West Bank. Some are even calling for a total boycott of Israel products.

The political leadership of Europe understands the need to not step forward and recognize a Palestinian State but the masses, even rank and file politicians not in leadership positions, see no harm in recognizing a Palestinian State.

Why is recognizing a Palestinian state so dangerous? It means that the fiat, or votes, around the world trump direct face to face dialogue.

The only way to create a state is for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to discuss and then agree upon the terms. A unilateral declaration is simply counterproductive.


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Iran Sudan Rift Will Hurt Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Sudan are at one another's throats.

Sudan shut down all Iranian culture centers in Sudan. The shutdown was ordered by the king himself.

Sudan shut down the Iranian centers because Iran was using them to spread Shiite tradition and influence Sunnis in Sudan.

This breakup will have a huge impact on weapon transfers to Hamas. Iran sends weapons to Sudan and the Sudanese then bring the weapons through Egypt and into Gaza.

This breakup between Iran and Sudan is troublesome - but it is also typical. All Sunnis are skeptical of Iran. The Sunnis fear that the Shiites want to poach Muslims and bring them over to Shiite Islam.

The difference between Shiites and Sunnis is so dramatic that they think of each other as heretics and can kill each other with impunity.

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Iran Tries to Help the US
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Stranger things have happened. But they are seldom as strange as these reports from the Iranian press.

Iran appears to be looking out for the United States and Israel.
Iran has warned the United States that toppling Syrian dictator Bashar Assad will increase the risks to Israel's security.

Over the weekend Iranian news covered and quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian as having specifically told his counterparts in the US that ousting Assad would endanger Israel.

There is no doubt that the Iranian assessment is correct. An ISIS or an al Qaeda/al Nusrah government in Syria would endanger Israel.

But why does Iran care enough to let the United States know their evaluation? And why have they made that message public?

The answer is that Iran does not think that the United States sees the region with the proper perspective. So they are helping the US view the region from the POV of US interests - or at least the way the Iranians see US interests.

Iran thinks that the human rights issue is so dramatic that ousting Assad is on equal footing with fighting ISIS. I fear is that Iran is wrong and that the United States does not understand it own priorities.

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Donor Conference For Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Today, in Cairo, the Donors Conference to rebuild Gaza is taking place.

The Palestinians are asking for $4 billion. As might be expected, the donor nations and agencies know that giving money to Gaza needs to be properly administered to make sure that it really goes towards the reconstruction of Gaza - and is not funneled to other purposes.

The United States planned on pledging $118 million. But in the end John Kerry pledged $212 million. That is hardly a significant sum.

Every donor nation thinks that if they give money now to rebuild Gaza, in two years Hamas will launch more rockets into Israel. They do not want Hamas involved in the rebuilding. The PA needs to step in.

The Conference is sponsored by Egypt and Norway in cooperation with the European Union, the United Nations and the Arab League.
There is almost no that the conference will reach the projected money goal.


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EU Lifts Sanctions on Iran Oil Tankers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an EU court lifted the sanctions against Iran's main oil tanker company. The court said that the sanctions have been annulled.

The EU did not even present an opposing point of view and so, the sanctions were automatically annulled. The time frame allotted for appeal had elapsed and no paperwork had been submitted in order to continue the sanctions.

That means that Iran's largest oil tanker company known as NITC which stands for the National Iranian Tanker Company is free to deliver oil to the European Union without restraints.

Of course there are still limits on the export of Iranian oil --- but not on the Iranian tankers delivering the Iranian oil.

This effectively destroys any potential power a European boycott of Iran would have. It means that there is almost no way to effectively pressure Iran. Their most important cash cow is free to function as it wishes and Iran is now able to provide Europe, a continent starving for fuel especially oil, with as much as they demand.

What a downturn and disappointment this is for those hoping to create a united front to pressure Iran to adhere to international demands and expectations regarding nuclear technology.

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Who Can Beat ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is a crap shoot. That is the answer I give when people ask me what the chances of defeating ISIS are.

I know the West can win. But ...

Every day, about 30 times a day, I get reports about battles and conflicts with ISIS and al Nusra. I read about losses and injuries, casualties and beheadings. I get regular reports on the vast numbers of people running away to escape the horror.

The real issue is not if the United States air force will inflict enough pain on ISIS or whether ISIS can endure the pain of the aerial strikes. The real issue is will ISIS be contained, do the Kurds and Hezbollah have the where-with-all to repel them.

Hezbollah and the Kurds are the only real groups on the ground with the psychological power to confront ISIS, they are the only groups with the need to succeed.

The reports I get concerning battles between Kurds and ISIS bare very important. If the Kurds trounce ISIS, that is a very good sign.
And if Hezbollah forces ISIS out of major parts of Syria, that, too, is very good.

It has nothing to do with agreeing with Hezbollah or liking Hezbollah. It has to do with wanting ISIS defeated. And other than the Kurds one of the only groups who care enough to fight them face to face and who have the experience, the weapons and the gumption is Hezbollah.

So I watch the daily skirmishes. I get moment by moment updates and I count the casualties. I also watch the map very carefully to make certain that areas and rings and swaths are or are not being connected.

This fight is happening even without US boots. And it may be over before you know it.

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Hezbollah Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are only a few groups in the Middle East who have the psychological wherewithal to confront ISIS.

They are the groups that fight for their land and their lives and know that they cannot run from ISIS. The Kurds are one group and Hezbollah is another.

Yesterday, ISIS and Hezbollah had a huge battle on the Syrian Lebanon border in the Bekka valley. Yesterday, also, Hezbollah had another major battle with the al Qaeda affiliate group called al Nusra.

Hezbollah sustained two losses and several injuries. ISIS and al Nusra fared much worse, losing 16 in one battle and 8 in another.

It sounds strange but in this case, we need to root for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah will defend Lebanon and Syria from al Qaeda and ISIS because they know that if either one or both of those even-more-extremist-than-they-are groups gains a stronghold, Shiites will be massacred. Hezbollah has nowhere to escape and their only option in the short and in the long term is to push back as hard as they possibly can.

Here I am, a major critic of Hezbollah and there is no doubt in my mind that Hezbollah will not abandon their ranks and will not run away from the fight and will not be deceived into believing that ISIS and al Qaeda are just a passing fad.

Ditto for the Kurds.

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Israel and the Fight Against Ebola - A US Double Standard
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 5, 2014

I've Benn Thinking:

Israel has just decided to send 3 mobile medical units to Liberia and Sierra Leone to help the fight against Ebola.

The request was officially sent from US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Powers to Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prossor.

Originally Israel rejected the request.

At first look, denying the request seemed strange and out of place.
Israel is usually the first country to jump in and help out other countries in need. And it appeared as if any disciplined Western medical team could institute the proper protocol to minimize risks to their team and their home country.

So why did Israel say no? And then say yes?

The request officially went to the Israeli Defense Ministry. The Foreign Ministry weighed in and suggested that Israel go. The Foreign Ministry thought that it would counterbalance the negative PR Israel was still getting from the summer conflict with Gaza, Operation Preventive Edge.

It seems as if the Defense Ministry determined that Israel could not take the risk. Or, maybe not.

The IDF has a good number of ready prepped MASH units. They were the proper address. They had the training.

Once again, Israel is faced with a huge double standard.

Liberia and Sierra Leone have not been shut down by the FAA. US airlines are still free to fly there and have been for months with no restrictions since the outbreak of this deadly virus now turned epidemic and potentially even pandemic. And yet, during the summer, Israel's Ben Gurion Airport was shut down to travelers to and from the United States causing over a billion dollars of lost tourist revenue.

There is no irony here - simply a double standard.

This is another example showing how wrong Washington has been when it comes to making certain foreign affairs decisions.

But in the end, Israel is sending teams to help. The teams are from the Foreign Ministry. Officially they are mobile medical clinics not MASH operations.

Why? Because Israel does the right thing. Israel helps people in need.

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Egypt Will Invite Israel PA to Talks
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 3, 2014

I've Been thinking:

If things go according to schedule Palestinians and Israelis are soon to resume peace negotiations and Egypt will act as mediator.

But it is not that simple. Egypt does not want negotiations. Neither does Israel. Not now.

Why doesn't Egypt want negotiations to resume now? Because Egypt has carved out a new position for itself within the Arab world. The Egyptians have successfully moved themselves into a position of leadership and Egypt does not want to jeopardize that new/old position.

Why doesn't Israel want negotiations to resume now? Because negotiating with the Palestinians now means negotiating not only with Abbas and his Fatah party, but with Hamas, too.

Egypt sees eye to eye with Israel about Hamas. They have said that the speech delivered by Abbas at the UN General Assembly was not simply wrong, it was a mistake.

But Egypt will do what it needs to do - it will do the right thing. After the Jewish holidays and after the Muslim pilgrimage known as the Haj and feast of the Eid, Egypt will sponsor new talks. They will send out invitations inviting the Israelis and the Palestinians to meet in wither Jerusalem, Ramallah or Cairo.

They will go through the motions, but their heart will not be in it.


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A Big Lie About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 2 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat, the outspoken Palestinian negotiator and spokesmen, drew a parallel between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the leader of ISIS.

The ad hominem attack is far from the truth - but never the less, it must be addressed.

Erekat begins by drawing the parallel between words and names. He reminds people that Netanyahu is the head of the Jewish state, while ISIS is creating an Islamic state.

Erekat goes on to say that Netanyahu allows his Jews to kill innocent people, massacre children, burn churches, destroy mosques and he permit settlers to perpetrate terrible attacks against Palestinians at will.

There is no way to compare ISIS with Israel. Yet Erekat does just that.

Israel is a democracy with checks and balances. Leaders and citizens are held accountable for their actions and for their misdeeds. There is an Independent judiciary in Israel and independent investigations and police and prosecution.

Israel is a country of law and justice.

Erekat did not just get his facts wrong - he is deliberately trying to transform a democratic country of peace loving defenders into a pre-modern society of barbarians.

Shame on you Saeb Erekat. And shame on anyone who actually believes your lies.

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Protests Against Israel in US Ports
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Port of Oakland is the 5th largest port in the United States.

On Saturday September 27, for the second time, protesters prevented an Israeli cargo ship from Zim Cargo from unloading its cargo at the port. The group of protesters was small - only about 200 people. They were organized under the banner of "Block the Boat for Gaza Online." Officially, they were upset by Israel's 50 day operation against Gaza this summer.

The first time this happened was in August and now this second time during the last days of September it has happened again. Twice in two months. Each time, the Zim ships eventually pulled out of Oakland and unload their cargo in Los Angeles.

Protesters prevented the ship from unloading by blocking the ship and the entrance to that section of the port so that the longshoremen could not and would not access the Zim ship.

The ILWU union (International Longshore and Warehouse Union) speaking for the longshoremen said that they did not take a stand on the politics. They also said that their workers and their vehicles were blocked and that they were threatened so they decided not to unload the ship or even break the line.

Here is the real problem: If this situation becomes more common, Zim will simply dock in LA or Long Beach. Zim is one of the biggest cargo companies in the world. It is a multi-billion dollar company.
Ironically, what the protesters do not realize is that they are not hurting Israel, they are hurting their local workers. When Zim takes it business elsewhere, the port will have to cut workers.

In the end, this kind of boycott will not be successful.


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US Air Strikes Hit Grain Silos - Not Reported
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US led coalition against ISIS struck targets in Manbij the other day.

But instead of hitting an ISIS camp, the coalition planes hit a series of grain silos. And instead of killing ISIS or al Nusra al Qaeda terrorists, the missiles killed locals who were processing food and flour for people in need.

Reports of the attack came from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Observatory is a British group which, form the beginning, has been in Syria documenting, reporting and broadcasting on the casualties of the conflict.

We use the Observatory numbers and in general, they are accurate.
They are anti-Assad government but they report on massacres perpetrated by all involved parties. There is no reason to doubt their report - especially because they explained that the fighter
pilots probably mistook the silos for a training camp.

One should know that in air attacks there is a possibility for civilian deaths. It is unfortunate and civilized countries try their best to eliminate civilian losses.

But here is the double standard: the world lambasted Israel and the Israelis went far beyond necessary in warning civilians about missiles. Here in Manbij the United States gave no warning at all.

Interestingly, there was almost no coverage of the attack and of civilian losses at the hands of the coalition. No outrage. No critique.

I am not criticizing the United States. I am pointing out the holier than thou approach when it came to Israel and now, with the coalition, it seems there is no response. No coverage. No preachy comments. Just business as usual.


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Abbas at the UN
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The biggest problem with the speech given by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas before the United Nations General Assembly is that Abbas was perpetuating a terrible lie.

The president of the Palestinian Authority declared that Israel had perpetrated a genocide against the Palestinians of Gaza. He said it took place before the eyes and ears of the world.

That is not what happened in Gaza -- not at all what happened. And Abbas knows it.

Yes, Palestinians died. But there was no systematic plan to murder or destroy Palestinians or the Palestinian people.

The plan was to defend Israel by destroying the terror tunnels emanating from Gaza into Israel and to degrade the ability of Hamas to launch rockets into Israeli civilian population centers. And, by the way, a byproduct of the action taken by Israel was to bolster and secure the leadership of Abbas.

Calling Israeli defensive actions an act of genocide is perverse. It is diplomatically irresponsible. It is blatantly untrue. It is an affront, an insult and an abuse of the Holocaust.

To call what happened to Palestinians the greatest catastrophe in the modern era is simply wrong. Abbas knows what happened and he knows about the Holocaust. For those of you who don't know, Abbas wrote his PhD on Israel's use of Holocaust.

The statements made by Abbas at the GA were met with applause. The United States responded by calling them incitement and not productive.

But words mean something. It is hard to call the person you hope to establish a long term working relationship with a genocidal murderer. And it is hard to make peace with someone who labels you a genocidal murderer.

Abbas was interested in building a united world front against Israel. It all begins with lies and conspiracies - de rigueur in Arab Middle East politics and diplomacy. I hope that some world leaders and some nations can see the truth through the lies and deception.

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Turkey & Egypt Verbal Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In typical fashion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a stinging attack during his recent UN address. His target was Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al Sisi.

The Turkish leader accused al Sisi of destroying democracy in Egypt by ousting the first elected president last summer.

Of course, the Turkish leader neglected to say that the previous Egyptian government systematically dismantled the new democracy and replaced it with Islamic law. He also did not mention that the then-elected leaders of Egypt were members of the anti-democratic Muslim Brotherhood.

Egypt wasted no time and shot back at Turkey accusing Erdogan of sponsoring terror. Here is the official response of the Egyptian foreign ministry.

"There is no doubt that the fabrication of such lies and fabrications are not something strange that comes from the Turkish President, who is keen to provoke chaos to sow divisions in the Middle East region through its support for groups and terrorist organizations."

Egypt and Turkey will continue to spar. Erdogan and his party are Islamic. Al Sisi defines himself as a leader committed to combating Islamic political parties and their advancement I the Middle East. Conflict is inevitable.

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Rosh HaShanah Happy New Year
By Micah Halpern

Shannah Tova

I will not be posting Thursday Friday and Saturday.
Wishing everyone, Jews and non Jews a happy new year.

See you Again on Sunday.

Micah Halpern



Fighting ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US led coalition against ISIS requires constant activity and vigilance. Much effort will be required keeping the coalition together and keeping up the pressure on ISIS.

This is a military battle. It is also a battle of PR and social media. ISIS thus far has successfully frightened the masses. Almost everyone fears their brutality and their massacres. The question is when or whether ISIS will start to realize the power of the West and the coalition.

The first major airstrike was significant. It hit 50 targets with multiple ordinances from various launching positions.

But is seems that ISIS knew the US was coming. According to various on site reports, especially from the human rights organizations in Syria, 23 to 25 ISIS and al Nusra fighters were killed. It seems all those locations that we saw get blown up on tape were empty.

According to reports, those people who were killed were mostly manning the check posts that prevent people from travelling from one location to another without paying protection money aka a toll which they call Zakat, or charity for the poor - which in this case is for the greater good of ISIS.

Interestingly, after the strike, the Syrian government, which up until the strike warned the US saying that a coalition would been as an act of war, supported the coalition bombing of the terrorists. Now Syria stands with those who fight the terrorists.

As an important aside it seems that the United States sent messages, using the United Nations General Assembly in New York City as their conduit, to the Syrian ambassador that the airstrike was to take place. And it appears that the Iraqi ambassador served as the intermediary.

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ISIS Says KIll Civilians
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS called on followers to attack civilians of their enemies wherever they live.

ISIS spokesman Abu Mohammed al Adani released a 42 minute video in which he called on all followers to fight the coalition that is being formed against ISIS. The video explained that there are groups organizing against ISIS and ISIS needs to strike back. He asked that
ISIS followers join together in the upcoming ground war against the coalition and explained that those ISIS followers who are living among ISIS enemies all over the world should attack the civilians.

There is no way to misinterpret this message. It is a rallying call for volunteers to come to the Islamic State and to support it in any way possible.

This message comes on the heels of last week's Australian plot that, thankfully, was discovered and stopped. ISIS supporters were planning on kidnapping and decapitating someone - just anyone. Those plotting the attack received their indoctrination and their training on line and swore allegiance to ISIS. Kidnapping and decapitating was supposed to be dagger to the heart of the West.

Members of the Western coalition and the many Arab leaders joining forces with them will be confronting ISIS - all at the very same moment ISIS intended to strike in the heart of the West. In Australia ISIS was going to send a message that would shake the West and the coalition to their very core.

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Hezbollah Drones
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We know that Hezbollah has drones. We know it because Israel has shot down some of the drones as they entered Israeli airspace and when they attempted to fly over the Mediterranean Sea near Haifa.

And in a major moment of embarrassment a drone, probably sent forth by Hezbollah, was shot down in the southern Negev having gone undetected for some time. There was some thought that the drone was Iranian - but it was probably from Hezbollah.

These drones, known as UAV's (unmanned aerial vehicles), were reconnaissance gathering drones. They were not armed.

But yesterday was different. Yesterday Hezbollah used one of their drones and attacked al Qaeda in Syria killing 20 to 25 al Qaeda members who were engaged in battle. Many more were injured.

This is the first time we have seen Hezbollah using armed drones in conflict. These drones could prove very effective for Hezbollah against ISIS and al Qaeda.

The use of drones changes many operational points. Most importantly, it gives Hezbollah the ability to watch, see and to stop ISIS and al Qaeda without endangering their own fighters.

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Stonings in Jersualem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Stonings are on the rise in Jerusalem. It is not what you think.
When you speak of "stoning" in Jerusalem you are referring to kids and young adults throwing stones at cars, at buses and at the light rail.

In this case it refers to Arab youth throwing the stones.
Over the past few weeks there has been a precipitous rise in these stoning which cause huge damage and frighten, injure and even kill anyone caught in the path of the flying discs.

This morning an Egged bus filled with school children on a trip was stoned. Some of the children were physically injured, some went into shock. The windows of the bus were destroyed and the bus was caked with black paint and riddled with dents.

This most recent bus attack was a frontal assault.

Unfortunately, there are seldom arrests after these attacks. The rock throwers assemble nonchalantly and then quickly scatter.

Acts of this kind are corrosive to the healthy psyche of a society and the police must devise a way of stopping them. Left unchecked, these rocks will become more damaging than rockets from Gaza.

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Kurds Flee ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Thousands of Kurds are fleeing for their lives and escaping into Turkey.

ISIS has begun a campaign and Kurdish leaders have announced that all women and children should flee to save their lives.

This is the ISIS response to the coalition.

The coalition wants to support locals in order to confront ISIS. But the only group even closely prepared to do this, despite being woefully under-supplied is the Kurdish militia. It is the Kurds who pushed back ISIS from the Mosul dam. And the Kurds have, with the help of US air support, been scoring some important victories.

ISIS is not taking this sitting down. They went after the softest of all targets. When the fighters were away, ISIS went into Kurdish villages and towns that border Turkey in the Northern part of Syria.
They began capturing the cities. To save themselves Kurds in the area simply fled.

There will be a series of other attacks and reprisals. The brutality is just beginning. The Kurds will strike back at ISIS - and they, too, will be extremely brutal.

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Rebuilding Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia opened the bidding yesterday. They pledged $500 million to help rebuild Gaza. That is about 1/6-1/8 of the entire estimated cost which has been put at $3-$4 billion.

The pledges will come. And as per normal, most pledges will only be partially filled.

But to what use will those pledged funds be going?

The real practical issues of rebuilding Gaza have not yet been resolved. We know that the Palestinian Authority will be supervising the rebuilding and we do know that Hamas will be sidelined. But so far, there is no organized method to plan and rebuild.

Just finding cement is a problem. Rebuilding Gaza will require approximately 10,000 tons of cement per day. Up until now, 30 tons per day are brought in and Israel just increased that three-fold making it about 100 tons per day. They will need those 10,000 tons per day for at least 6 months.

The PA has said that they do not want to buy cement from Israel. There really is no other choice. Importing that much cement from Cyprus or from parts of Europe into Gaza will prove to be financially prohibitive. So despite Palestinian reservations, a private Israeli company will provide the cement necessary to rebuild Gaza.

That will most likely be the case with other construction supplies as well.

There is no irony or surprise here. Israel and the Palestinians are inextricably linked inextricably one to the other. Palestinian growth, Palestinian development and the Palestinian economy need to feed off of Israel. And major sectors of the Israeli economy feed off services provided to Palestinians.

Conflict, destruction, rebuilding and even terror are part of their ongoing relationship. I do not see that changing - even with a peace agreement or the declaration of an independent Palestinian state.


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Israel Can't Sell Their Gas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Remember when Israel discovered a mammoth natural gas reserve off their coast in the Mediterranean Sea? It was nothing short of a miracle!

In 2018 when the natural gas field, Leviathan, opens for business it will turn Israel into a real player in the natural gas market.

The problem is that Israel is having problems securing contracts and clients to buy their natural gas. Turkey was their best potential client, but that outlet dried up because of this summer's conflict Operation Preventive Edge in Gaza.

Then Cyprus pulled out because of negotiation issues.

Austria fell apart because of an old and continuing conflict over taxes.

That leaves only the Palestinian Authority and Jordan as clients and the possibility of supplying the Egyptian side of British Gas and their liquefied natural gas facility in Egypt.

What this really means is that the gas will be way undersold and that Israel will only be a regional supplier and not an international supplier. That situation is potentially cataclysmic for Israel as it tries to break into the market.

Once Israel is relegated to being a regional force, it will be hard to become a world player.

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Turkey is Ticking off People
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is really beginning to tick people off. By people I mean world leaders and diplomats from both the West and from Arab countries.

Turkish leader Erdogan just visited Qatar. On the plane, on his way back home, he held a press conference and announced that all exiled Muslim Brotherhood leaders were welcome in Turkey.

A bit of background -- The Gulf states have been very frustrated with Qatar. Qatar has been supporting the Brotherhood and Hamas. So the Gulf states exerted extreme amounts of pressure on Qatar to stop.

Instead of stopping, Qatar decided to expel the leaders of the Brotherhood and Hamas who had created their international nerve center out of Doha. Qatar gave them two months to leave. All this happened last week.

Now Turkey is declaring itself the new center for this terror.

Turkey has a lot going on a lot of different fronts. They tacitly joined the coalition against ISIS and refuses to allow the coalition to fly over their airspace or use their runways. They are also creating a buffer zone in Syria and hemorrhaging youth who are rushing out of Turkey to join the ranks of ISIS.

Those are some of the reasons why Turkey is really upsetting people.

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Hezbollah Against ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah has made it very clear that they are fighting ISIS - and that Syria cannot lose the battle to ISIS.

The deputy head of the Hezbollah executive council, Sheik Nabil Qawouq, explained that Hezbollah will not leave Syria, they will remain in Syria to fight ISIS --- "this is a battlefield where we will defeat and crush them."

The point is that if Hezbollah is not there to battle ISIS, then the Islamic State will roll right over Syria and then into Lebanon.
ISIS has taken some serve blows in Syria. It looks like Assad/ Hezbollah and those fighting with them are slowly but surely securing more and more area.

There is little doubt that the powerful forces that are fighting on the ground checking ISIS in Syria are Hezbollah. But the irony of ironies is that Hezbollah is acting in their own self interest. And part of that self interest is also keeping the border with Israel safer.

A secure Israeli border is a stable reality that Hezbollah count on. Hezbollah must keep ISIS at bay for many reasons - and one of those reasons is to maintain stability on the Israeli border.

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N African Group Embraces ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a major shift took place in the structure of power in the Middle East.

In Algeria the group called al Qaeda of North Africa, known as AQIM which is the acronym for Al Qaeda of Islamic Mahgreb, split away from al Qaeda and joined ISIS. They now call themselves The Caliphate Soldier of Algeria.

The group now professes allegiance to the ISIS declared Caliph Al Baghdadi.

This is another in a long line of examples demonstrating how popular ISIS is becoming and showing us that people and groups are bailing on al Qaeda. Clearly ISIS is very popular among the rebels.

This move highlights the success of ISIS. And it reminds us that al Qaeda on the ropes. More of these defections will come in the near future. ISIS is now the focal point of the West and hence a very attractive place to hang your hat in the extremist sector of the Middle East.

One incentive not to be overlooked is the reality that ISIS is paying their fighters very well and will continue to fill the coffers on a daily basis.

It is not only the West that is feeling the pressure of ISIS, al Qaeda is feeling that pressure, as well.

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PA Says ISIS Was Created Because of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The entire Arab and Muslim world is trying to figure out how to engage ISIS, or Daesh, as it is called in Arabic. Some groups, like al Qaeda, are in competition with ISIS. Other groups are trying to confront ISIS. This was the case on Saturday when there was a huge protests against ISIS by Arabs in Israel.

But PA leadership seems upset that ISIS has caused the world media to shift attention away from the plight of the Palestinians. Several years ago the Palestinian leadership was also upset by the refocus on Syria. So now the PA leadership is trying to gain back that focus and even use ISIS as a tool to put the Palestinian cause front and center.

Saeb Erekat a senior Palestinian leader and chief peace negotiator said on Fatah TV that Israel and the settler are the reason for ISIS and Islamic extremism. He added, saying that the "terror acts" of Israel and the settlers empower and create groups like ISIS.

Erekat is creating a false narrative "solve the Palestinian problem and the ISIS problem will be solved." All of the problems confronted in the Middle East derive first and foremost from Israel oppressing the Palestinians.

This has always been the central talking point among leaders in the PA. But today it is a real shocker. There is no logic to it but their modus operandi is always to first blame Israel for everything.

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ISIS Gets Over $1Mill/day from Oil
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

How is ISIS getting their money and paying for their ever increasing numbers of recruits and fighters. The CIA has now increased their assessment of ISIS as having as many as 31,500 fighters, up from 10,000 at the beginning of the summer.

So, how does ISIS get their money? Aside from stealing $1.2 billion from the banks when they entered Mousol, ISIS has other means of raising money.

ISIS taxes with a "zakat" which is, supposedly, alms for the poor - but in their case, the tax goes to salaries. Zakat is one of the pillars of Islam and is best translated as charity or, in Hebrew, tzedaka. ISIS goes to every store and demands the tax. They set up road blocks on the highways and call them toll stations. They demand the zakat at gunpoint.

ISIS also has oil. They have 4-5 oil fields in Iraq and Syria. Each field has 40-70 wells. The fields and wells are operated by locals who worked for the oil companies.

ISIS is pumping 25,000 barrels per day (bpd). They are selling locally. They are selling at severely below market value, at cut-rates that are 50%-75% below price - at $25-$60 a barrel. That brings in a staggering $625,000 to $1.5 million per day.

That is per day. This is one of the reasons ISIS is recruiting so successfully. They pay very well. And that is the magnet that draws recruits from all over the world.

There is no question that at this stage ISIS has much, much, more money and better funding than Al Qaeda.

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Ted Cruz Walks Off Stage After Defending Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Senator Ted Cruz was booed off stage for supporting Israel. Cruz, the Republican senator from Texas, was speaking at the inaugural event of a new organization called "In Defense of Christians."

Cruz, a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination, was addressing the group and explained that, in 1948, Jews from around the Arab world escaped persecution by escaping to Israel. He said that "Christians have no greater ally than Israel." The crowd started to heckle him by booing and shouting.

Cruz folded and put away his prepared speech.

And then he said: "I will say this: I'm saddened to see that some here, not everyone, are so consumed with hate." At that, the crowd got even more aggravated.

Cruz continued: "I will say this: If you will not stand with Israel and the Jews, then I will not stand with you. Thank you and God bless you."

Watching the various videos of this event was very disturbing. The hecklers were clearly Arabs. The host asked for respect from the attendees in a clearly accented voice, he reminded the audience that "this is America."

How could the crowd publicly heckle and boo a sitting US senator who did nothing more than articulate his support for Israel and Jews. And this from an organization that was professes to fight religious persecution.

It is as if to say that Jews in the Middle East are not and were not oppressed - in Iraq, in Iran, in Syria, in Egypt, in Libya, in Morocco, in Algeria, in Ethiopia. The point Senator Cruz was making is that Jews sought and found refuge in Israel. That Israel understands religious persecution.

And all this took place in the US Capital, in Washington DC.

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9/11 13 Years Later
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is the 13th anniversary of 9 /11. I remember it as if it were yesterday.

More than memory, 9 / 11 transformed the United States. It was a watershed event. Seldom can we look at a single historical event and say this event changed us and changed the world.

The unreal became real. The United States became a target on its homeland. It was a harsh awakening, a difficult process of maturation. 9 /11 is when the United States lost its naivete.

The United States was a sleeping giant and the terror of 9 /11startled the sleeping giant awake.

The United States became not just a player in the game of world terror, it became a leader in the fight against terror. Until 9 /11 the United States knew that terror was awful, but assumed that it would never knock at their door, assumed that terror was a reality that "others had to deal with." It was a reality in Israel - not in the United States.

9 /11 taught the United States that America could be and was a target. Everything the United States stands for came under attack, everything - especially freedom, democracy and success.

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PA Admits Donors Afraid of Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The deputy prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammed Mustafa, explained that donor countries are reluctant to give aid to any government where Hamas is involved. Mustafa said that the countries see Hamas as destructive and that any rebuilding undertaken by Hamas would be done in order to launch another attack against Israel.

Mustafa explained that the donors want Abbas and his PA to take control of Gaza.

"Some donor countries are concerned because of the atmosphere on the ground ... because the reconstruction is not possible without enabling the (Palestinian) government to take the lead in all aspect of life in Gaza."

Donor nations do not want to be complicit in sponsoring another Hamas led conflict with Israel in Gaza.

And Egypt announced that they will host a donor conference on October 12 to help raise and allocate money to rehabilitated Gaza. And certainly, one of the chief questions under discussion at the conference will be who directs, supervises and monitors the money and the building that will be funneled into Gaza.

Egypt has a vested interest in knowing that the money does not go to building and repairing new tunnels. Tunnels from Gaza into Egypt have been responsible for hundreds of Egyptian deaths at the hands of Gaza terrorists. Egypt will make certain that the money and the work in Gaza will not be abused.

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CIA To Help Jordan Fight ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is deeply concerned that Jordan is in the sights of ISIS. So the United States has charged a former CIA official with extensive links to Jordan to head up a special task force. The King of Saudi Arabia also announced that he predicts Jordan is next.

There is reason for worry. ISIS has made it clear that they are on the move. They have a vision and they are setting out to accomplish it.

The US wants to develop real responses to the potential ISIS threats against Jordan. They need to focus and to figure out what Jordan can do and what the United States must do.

Jordan cannot fall to ISIS - not simply because of Jordan's role and friendship with the US, but because Jordan borders Israel. If ISIS breaks into Jordan through the border with Iraq it will be a game changer. Israel will not tolerate ISIS that close.

If ISIS breaks into Jordan Israel will strike ISIS immediately. It is simply too dangerous for the very existence of Israel. Israel's border with Jordan is not like their border with Syria in the Golan Heights. In the Golan, Hezbollah is defending the region and will do everything to prevent ISIS from taking over.

Jordan does not have the same capabilities as Hezbollah. Yes, Jordan has a professional army and they have trained officers. But the Jordanians have no real experience and they are not prepared for a real battle against an enemy like ISIS.

Everyone is worried about Jordan. And the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan itself are responding to the threat. There is real reason for this worry.

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Hamas is Rebuilding Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In Israel yesterday the press reported that an intelligence source said that Hamas is rebuilding their tunnels.

That would make it less than two weeks after the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza went into effect. Later in the day a report was published quoting not a source but an actual Hamas leader saying that indeed Hamas has started rebuilding the tunnels.

He said that weapons and other important supplies, including building supplies, are being smuggled in.

We know that he is telling the truth, and there is no reason to doubt him, the supplies must be small because the tunnels they are using from Egypt are small.

When the Israeli press reports on Hamas, it can reasonable be called speculative. But when the Hamas official describes the actual tunnels and the materials that they are smuggling, that can be seen as confirmation.

There is no question that Hamas is rebuilding. And there is no doubt that they want to strike at Israel again and very soon. And the biggest no doubt is that Hamas understands that this will put into question both the international aid they have been receiving and have been promised and the unity government with Abbas and the PA.

Bottom line is that Hamas does not care. The Hamas objective is mono-dimensional. Hamas wants to destroy Israel. Period, end.

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ISIS Among Israeli Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS has become a hot topic of debate, argument, discussion, in many places around the world. Even in Israel. ISIS has caused fissures even among the Arab citizens of Israel.

In their Shabbat (weekend) edition, YNET ran a piece in which several Israeli Arabs discussed ISIS. Some of them embrace ISIS, others reject them. Some like the direction ISIS has taken, others think they go too far. Some advocated for volunteering to fight alongside ISIS, others violently attacked preachers and imams who advocated ISIS.
The article has pictures and even video. Most of the material comes from facebook pages.

Here are some of the interchanges:

"ISIS is on the right path." said one imam as worshippers shouted at him: "You are defending a terror organization. We will not pray at the mosque as long as you hold such murderous thoughts of terror. You must realize that our religion does not teach us to murder people - Muslims, Christians, Jews, or Druze."

Another example turned physical after a member of a mosque declared: "the Islamic State is the only one that can establish an Islamic state, and it is good they are punishing people. I hope they make it to Israel." Responders said "You are terrorist scum, and you have nothing to say to us. Get out of here; we do not want to see your ilk."

It is one thing to have ISIS followers in Iraq or Syria. It is conceivable that there are disenfranchised youngsters from Europe eager to join ISIS - but from Israel, that is very scary.

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Is Israel Prepared for Hezbollah?
By Micah Halpern

September 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Some military experts are suggesting that Israel's next conflict will be with Hezbollah. I am not certain that I agree, but agree or disagree, I know that the real issue to consider is whether Israel is properly prepared for a next conflict.

Hezbollah is far better trained than Hamas and has much more experience and many more rockets and guided missiles than Hamas has.

Hezbollah, according to intel sources, has the ability to launch 1000 rockets per day into Israel. Some experts say that Hezbollah has accumulated 100,000 rockets of various styles and ranges.

Assuming that intel is correct, and I assume that it is, it will be extremely difficult for Israel to defend itself against Hezbollah. As of today Israel only has nine Iron Dome batteries. Considering that Israel began Operation Preventive Edge with only seven, nine is a 30% increase and vast improvement - but is it enough?.

In addition, Hezbollah has 5,000 commanders with hard earned operational experience fighting ISIS, al Qaeda and al Nusra in Syria. They fought in Syria as a real army, not as a ragtag group of terrorists or guerrillas.

One cannot discount the possibility that Syria will lend their fighters and weapons to Hezbollah in a conflict against Israel. Assad would simply be retuning the favor because Hezbollah was such a stalwart force fighting to keep him in place.

Again, I do not think that Hezbollah is running to confront Israel. Actually, right now their plate is pretty full with ISIS and with helping Assad. None the less, it is essential for Israel to be prepared the eventuality.

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Debating ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The tragic murder of Steven Joel Sotloff has given us greater insight into the world that ISIS inhabits.

Satloff's mother made an appeal to the head of ISIS after the brutal murder of James Foley. She appealed to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. In addressing the mastermind behind the beheading, Mrs. Sotloff used Muslim terms and emphasized Muslim values. She referred to Baghdadi in the most respectful of ways, even using his self appointed title -- Caliph.

At the time, I was struck by the nature of her plea and thought that whoever had advised her knew Arabic society and had determined that this was the only possible chance a mother had to save her son.

Now, in the aftermath of both horrific murders, we know that one of the family's spokespeople, Barak Barfi, actually challenged Baghdadi to a debate about Islam and Islamic ideals especially about mercy and peace.

Here is what Barfi laid out in his challenge:

"I have a message to Abu Bakr,"

"You said Ramadan is a month of mercy but where is your mercy? You speak of Islam and the Holy Koran but I know the Koranic verses."

"Abu Bakr, I am ready to debate you"

"I come in peace, I don't have a sword in my hand, I am ready for your answer."

Barfi understood that Baghdadi would not entertain his request for debate. Barfi is really speaking to the rest of the Arabic world, not to Baghdadi. He is saying these barbaric acts are hardly the acts of a true Muslim.

Barfi is calling Baghdadi a heretic, a man who takes parts of Islam and exploits it for his own purpose.


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Al Qaeda Attacks ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the head of al Qaeda, released a 50 minute tape yesterday. The purpose of the tape was to announce that a new al Qaeda front is opening in the Indian subcontinent.

But the real reason for the tape was for Zawahiri to give a slap in the face to ISIS / ISIL / IS, the Islamic State for all the havoc it has caused and all the claims it has made.

Al Qaeda is taking issue with ISIS. The major point of contention is over the fact that that ISIS is creating discord in the name of Jihad. They are violating basic Islamic teachings in order to fight their battle. Zawahiri claims that ISIS does not care about other Muslims or their property or their money. And even more, Zawahiri says that the discord created by ISIS is in and of itself a violation of Islam.

He said: "If you said that you are doing jihad to defend the sanctities of the Muslims, then you must not transgress against them or their money or honor, and not even transgress your mujahedeen brothers by word and action."

Zawahiri continued: "Discord is a curse and torment, and disgrace for the believers and glory for the disbelievers," he said. "If you say that by your jihad you do not want but the pleasure of Allah, then you must not race for governance and leadership at the first opportunity."

ISIS leader Baghdadi is being called an opportunist and a fraud.
That is a very strong challenge to posit.

ISIS is becoming more popular than al Qaeda. We may witness some very ugly rhetoric fly back and forth and maybe even some real fighting - brutal conflict similar to what took place between al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria.

Be prepared.

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Hamas Oppressing PA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A recent poll shows that Hamas has increased in popularity over the past few weeks. They are, at this moment, more popular than Abbas and the PA.

So PA representatives have begun unveiling horrific descriptions of brutal abuse at the hands of Hamas. Hamas has threatened and physically abused and even murdered PA people in Gaza

"Hamas acted in the same barbaric way in 2009 and 2012 without ever giving any reasons," one witness described the situation. "Nobody can forget the Fatah blood they spilled after their 2007 coup d'etat."

Others describe how Hamas humiliated and even publicly murdered PA employees over the past few weeks.

There are 100,000 PA employees in Gaza. They all continued to draw a salary during the conflict with Israel and that, too, was a huge cause of conflict between Hamas and the PA. Now they are being terrorized.

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Rouhani Tells Clerics Be Open To Modern World
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made an appeal to the leading clerics of Iran who had gathered together at a conference in Teheran.

The appeal was do not "close the gates to the world."

Rouhani was referring to internet and to the sciences.

Rouhani told the religious leaders that Iran needs to teach technology and science and that the youth of Iran need to engage with them.

Iranian clerics have been against the internet and against 3G connectivity and against 3G service out of the fear that the evil elements of the internet will have a horrific impact and negative influence on Iranian youth and on the future of Iran.

The religious leaders are concerned about the moral decay of a society that uses the internet. Rouhani urged them to be more open to new technology and new ideas. Without these new technologies Iran will not be able to compete or to defend itself.

Rouhani promised that he would liberalize many aspects of Iran including the internet. That is not as easy as he originally suggested it would be. Progress may just be on the Iranian horizon.

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16 Yr Old Girl Caught Going to Fight in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the French Minister of the Interior announced the arrest of a 16 year old girl who was running away to fight in Syria.

The girl's parents had no idea, they were shocked. Her recruiter, a 20 year old man, was arrested with the 16 year old as they boarded a plane in Nice en route to Turkey on Saturday night.

Europe has been worried that significant numbers of their youth might join the ISIS or al Qaeda fighters in Syria and Iraq, worried that after being trained these fighters might return to fight from their native soil.

In this case we have a young girl who has been dubbed Jihad Jane.

The fact that she is a young girl is very disturbing. For those who have been following the ISIS butchering of the Kazidis, you know that about 600 girls were spared a brutal death - and were instead relocated and either given or sold for $1000 to become the slaves of ISIS fighters in Syria. If the girls convert to Islam, these young victims can potentially become wives of ISIS fighters.

ISIS is paying every fighter $400 a month. They then add another $100 per months for every child the soldier has.

ISIS is extremely sexist. I have difficulty understanding what a 16 year French girl would be doing in this conflict.

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The Abbas Dilemma
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, is facing a huge dilemma.

On the one hand, Abbas signed a unity agreement with Hamas. On the other hand, the agreement between the PA and Israel says that talks will resume within the next 30 days. And the problem is that Israel will not talk with Abbas as long as he is connected with Hamas.

Abbas has to choose between Hama and Israel. Now remember, Abbas really wants to destroy Hamas and the feeling is mutual - Hamas really wants to destroy Abbas and the PA.

All the funds for rebuilding Gaza are going through Abbas and his people. He will be building a real infrastructure in terms of actual buildings on the ground and the people who will be doing the work will be employed by the PA, not by Hamas. That will promote loyalty to Abbas and the PA on the streets of Gaza.

And now another problem arises. Abbas just promised to pay Hamas from his own coffers and transfer the money to Gaza banks. That means that he is now empowering Hamas.

Netanyahu said it on Saturday night. Abbas cannot have it both ways. Abbas must make a choice. Either Israel or Hamas. Not both.

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Head of Hamas Shouts V
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas in Gaza, took a tour of certain parts of Gaza.

Haniyeh flashed the V sign everywhere he went.

From our Western POV it is hard to look at all the destruction in Gaza and interpret it as, in any manner whatsoever, success. And yet, Hamas does just that.

Hamas sees and evaluates success very differently than we in the West do. From Hamas' POV they emerged victorious because there are still Hamas leaders that were not assassinated and Hamas fighters that were not killed. Hamas sees a victory in the fact that they are still able to fire rockets into Israel.

Hamas sees a victory when there is still one man standing, still able to speak and shout and fight.

The West does not see loss and victory in total terms. The West assesses greater and lesser, better or worse. For the West, assessment is a series of evaluations in shades of gray.

For Hamas it is total, all or nothing, black and white. As long as
Hamas can still rebuild and continue to fight, they have emerged successful. And they are triumphant.

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Abbas Laces Into Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas laced into Hamas in a publicly broadcast interview.

Abbas said that the current ceasefire is identical to the very first ceasefire agreement proposed by Egypt - which Hamas refused to accept. He then suggested that all the civilian deaths that took place were as a result of that refusal. So Hamas is responsible for all those deaths.

Abbas further said that he was personally assured by the Khalad Mashal, the leader of Hamas, that Hamas had nothing to do with the kidnapping and killing of the three Israeli teenagers Eyal Yifrah, Naftali Frankel and Gilad Shaar. And then, just a few days later, another Hamas leader publicly claimed responsibility and involvement for the kidnappings and murders.

One of the points Abbas was making ws how important it is that the rebuilding of Gaza be done under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas. He, Mahmoud Abbas, will supervise the project.

Judging from his tone during the broadcast, it seems that what most irked Abbas is that Hamas stated that they can and will determine whether there is quiet with Israel or whether they will attack again and go to war.

Abbas said this is not the unity agreement that he signed with Hamas. The Palestinian president asserted that only the PA can make that declaration.

We have to watch this tension closely. It looks like Abbas is making a move. It looks like he is preparing to assert his influence and flex his power and maybe - maybe even take back Gaza from Hamas.

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Boycotting Israel Will Not Work
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There has been an uptick in anti-Israel sentiment in the Western world - in Europe and in the United States. The reality is that it is old fashioned anti-Semitism with a thin veneer, a coating, of anti-Israel rhetoric.

The most organized group promoting this ugliness is the BDS movement. BDS stands for Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions. They movement spouts lies and speaks half-truths and promotes the boycotting Israeli products. Their invective is filled with hate under the guise of promoting justice for Palestinians.

Regardless of what the BDS movement or any other movement has to say, boycotts have virtually no impact on Israel.

Here is why:

Israel's economy is insulated against these kinds of boycotts because of the nature of what Israel produces and what it exports. The only real exception is agricultural exports and they compose only 2% of total Israeli exports. And even that can be protected.

95% of Israel's exports are B2B, business to business, which means that they are not actually sold to consumers. Many of those businesses are subsidiaries of multinationals firms. They produce small components of larger pieces and the multi-national companies are only interested in the price of the product and no one knows what is inside those products. The same is true for the pharmaceutical industry. Some are products wholly developed and produced in Israel and some are products in which Israel contributes elements to the finished product.

And the companies that are doing business with Israel have felt no impact from the BDS movement at all.

It is industries in the West Bank, along with the agricultural sector, that have felt the pinch. But that is due to the EU boycott and their enforcement. But Israeli products, even from West Bank industries, are finding different markets willing and even excited about buying their products.

I know about the BDS movement in terms of the economic effect. The real impact though is on young people on campus - especially those students who may actually fall victim to the bile and ugly rhetoric.
That is where my worry lies.

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What Hamas Wants From Ceasefire
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A long term cease fire has been reached between Gaza and Israel.

The exact details have not been made public. But from leaks it seems that Rafa, the crossing between Gaza and Egypt, will be opened. And Israel will let humanitarian and reconstruction materials into Gaza. And finally, in 30 days, peace talks between Israel and the PA will resume.

There were huge celebrations in Gaza after the cease fire was announced. Gazans flashed the V sign as a symbol of victory.

I ask you - how could this be a victory for Hamas and Gaza? From what we know thus far from the agreement, Hamas achieved almost none of their demands.

The answer is that Hamas needed to show Gazans that there was a victory so they went out to set the example and led the celebrations - despite having won nothing.

And that leads to the next question. How long will the ceasefire last?

That depends on Hamas' perception. If Hamas still feels strong enough, they will break the ceasefire because they see that they have more to gain. However, if Hamas has been bruised and beaten and their weapons are depleted, if Hamas does not have anything left to fight with, then the ceasefire will hold - until they rebuild their caches and restock their arsenal.

It sounds complicated but it is not. Hamas cannot stop. Hamas is sworn to Israel's destruction. The ceasefire is simply a time-out, a time to replenish and a time to reload.

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ISIS is in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has been insisting that there is no connection between ISIS and them. They say that there is no ISIS at all in Gaza.

Hamas is lying. It looks like there is a definite ISIS presence in Gaza.

I watched a video with ISIS members shooting rockets into Israel.

YNET reported that there has been a real uptick in internet activity from Gaza on websites that are ISIS affiliates.

Egypt, which has been sensitive to the growth of extremist Islamic groups, has asserted that ISIS has successfully recruited young men of Gaza to join their movement.

And there was an ISIS rally that took place in Gaza in June.

All this lead us to conclude that ISIS, the real thing, is getting off the ground in Gaza.

This is beyond dangerous.

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Hamas is Like ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Since the beginning of the current conflict between Hamas and Israel, Hamas has been extremely adroit at messaging.

The Hamas message has been on point at every juncture. Hamas has been successful at framing the discussion and deflecting almost all responsibility. Their message has been clear and simple: Israel is killing innocent civilians.

Try as they might to cast Hamas in the light of a terrorist group, Israel has not successfully redirected the coverage.

But recently, the office of the Israeli prime minister began drawing the parallel between ISIS and Hamas. After the execution of Jim Foley, they intensified the parallels.

Hamas took exception to the comparison.

And last week there was a major synapse.

Last week Hamas executed dozens of Gazans accused of collaborating with Israel. The still pictures were plastered all across the web and on the front pages of newspapers. The Hamas executioners were wearing black and their faces were covered with black hoods.

And the parallel stuck.

The prisoners had their hands tied behind their backs and they were kneeling. Everyone seeing the photos drew the ISIS/Hamas link.

Hamas claimed it was not so. They issued a new directive that all future executions not be done in public and not be photographed. But here is the problem. Like ISIS, Hamas wants people to see the executions because they want to sew the seeds of fear - in their own people. The more fear, the greater the power Hamas wields over the 1.8 million Gazans.

Hamas and ISIS are not identical. But they are very, very similar.

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Poll: Gazans Want Ceasefire -- But
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I am not surprised.

A new survey was released on Saturday by the Palestine Center for Public Opinion.

1000 people in Gaza participated in the door to door survey. The main questions they were asked were about a ceasefire with Israel.

The overwhelming majority of those polled agreed that they want a long term ceasefire with Israel. 87.6% responded positively to that question. At the same time, 93.2% said that they would not support a ceasefire that involved disarming.

The essential point here is clear.

The people of Gaza want quiet. And those same people also want the ability to transform the quiet and to strike Israel at will.

Analysts are saying that disarming is too great a price to pay for the Gazans. But the real issue here is the issue of power. If the people of Gaza have rockets, they still have power. If they give up their rockets, Gaza loses a tangible and visible sense of power.

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The Israel Response Variable
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are several variables that will move Israel to more aggressive action against Hamas. Those variables result in actions that include ground strikes and more intensive air strikes.

For Israel, the most important variable is the death of children - like the killing of four year old Daniel Turgeman.

Another variable is a constant barrage of rockets.
And finally, the increased intensity of attacks upon Israel by Hamas, demonstrating no desire to a return to a status quo quiet.

It seems that this is the new status.

Up until now Israel has been extremely lucky and there have been very few civilian deaths from the Gaza rockets. The death of a child is a game changer.

Israel has already re-called 10,000 reservists. They are now considering a series of ground strikes utilizing their elite strike forces. These attacks will be dramatically different from the previous ground operation. They will use more air support and more precise targeting of people and places - relying heavily on new intel.

The attacks will hone in on Hamas and Islamic Jihad command and control centers.

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Israel Kills Hamas Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has successfully targeted several Hamas leaders. Targeting is a euphemism for assassinate.

Two of the Hamas leaders were central field commanders, responsible for the operational planning and execution of Hamas' attacks against Israel. Their names are Raed al Attar and Mohammed Abu Shamala.
These men were not just responsible for the shooting of rockets from Gaza into Israel, they also coordinated, planned and trained hundreds of terror raids into Israel. Together they were responsible for hundreds of Israeli casualties.

A third person assassinated by Israel is Mohammed Barhoum. He was in charge of Hamas logistics. Over the past 10 years Barhoum's main role was facilitating and building the tunnels of Gaza.

Up until now Israel has been unable to locate and target Hamas military leaders. Something changed. My guess is that Israel was able to crack the Hamas communication network.

But does killing the leaders have an impact? Yes.

It send the rest of Hamas' followers into disarray. Cutting off the head of the beast means that it will take time for new leadership - with charisma, experience and the creativity to launch bold new operations, to emerge.

This is what the United States did with al Qaeda and the Taliban and what it should be doing with ISIS.

This successful strike by Israel may not totally destroy Hamas, but it will have a huge impact on the ability of Hamas to plan attacks against and to strike Israel.

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Hamas Shoots Record Number of Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is a new and very sad and dubious record.

Last night 168 rockets were launched from Gaza into target Israel. The previous record was 150. Hamas is making an important point. And Israel responded in kind.

Hamas' point is that Israel did not defeat them and they still have the capability to strike Israel. With no intel to validate the observation, it seems clear that Hamas still has plenty of firepower and plenty of underground silos to launch them from.

Hamas hosted a Rueters camera crew and still photographer earlier this week. The journalists were taken on a tour of a tunnel system. The purpose of that tour was identical to Hamas launching these rockets.

Hamas is declaring that Israel is lying. Hamas is proving that they can still strike at the heart of Israel.

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Status Quo Agreement w/ Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The ceasefire between Hamas in Gaza and Israel was broken. It was also timed out. No surprise.

Now, again, Hamas is launching rockets and Israel is countering with airstrikes. Israelis were told to stay in their bomb shelters.
Hamas is claiming that Israel dragged their feet in this stage of the negotiations. They were probably correct.

At this point there is no doubt that, from Israel's perspective, Israel would be giving way too many concessions to Hamas in a long term status accord. So it is in Israel's interests to just create a new status quo and live by it.

Hamas was not budging. Israel was giving in to more and more demands. At a certain point Israel simply said enough.

That is where the talks are now. In many ways this kind of status quo is better than an agreement that is neither applicable nor enforceable. In the new status quo Israel will have to use its own power of deterrence to make certain that Hamas does not step out of line.

At the beginning it will be very important that Israel clearly send that message and set down the cost of violating the status quo to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. If Israel does not respond quickly and strongly, Hamas will not understand the high price of firing at Israel and disturbing the peace and quiet of the Israeli citizens that live near Gaza and in all parts of Israel.

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Hamas Agents Plot to Overthrow Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Intelligence, known as the Shin Bet, arrested 93 Hamas members in the West Bank. Israel also confiscated hundreds of thousands of dollars and numerous weapons and ammo.

The arrested are charged with plotting a third intifada. But the intifada was actually simply a terrorist's tool. The objective was to sow the seeds of great antagonism and cause huge resentment by way of an intifada that would cause Israel to clamp down on Palestinians living in the West Bank and force the Palestinian Authority to break down and, finally, implode.

Think of it as a game of dominos.

Abbas and the Palestinian Authority would either have to clamp down on the intifada - or let it happen. Either way, either decision that they made, the Palestinian Authority would come crumbling down and Hamas would take over.

Interestingly, Turkey was also included in this Hamas move. The Hamas organizer has been in Turkey and much of the money and many of the players came to the region via Turkey.

There's more. On Tuesday Abbas went to Qatar to meet with the head of Hamas, Khaled Mashal. Abbas went to meet Hamas knowing of this plan.

For months I have said that the objective of Hamas is to oust the PA and Abbas. That is why Israel so diligently kept Abbas in the loop.

The irony is that Israel Is actually protecting Abbas and the PA against Hamas. And PA security forces are helping Israel and briefing the Shin Bet.

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New Old Anti Semitism in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

People are blaming the rise of anti-Semitic violence in Europe on the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

They are wrong.

The idea that Israel's conflict with Hamas is connected to Europe is a disconnect with reality.

The hatred has been presented as anti Israel, but it is clear that the real tone of hatred in Europe is, in fact, anti-Semitic - not anti Israel. When we review the protests, the posters and the shouts and slogans we are reminded of Europe in the 1930's.

European protesters in 2014 are shouting "Gas the Jews" and "Hitler was right." Their placards read "Child Murderers." The protesters publicly declare that Israel is murdering Palestinian children as a policy.

This is a clear reenactment of the blood libel.

This is not about being anti Israel. There is no evidence for these canards. It is an exact replay of medieval Jew hatred. Only it's 2014.

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With Hamas - No Agreement Works
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The good news and the productive tone that came out of the Cairo talks on Thursday and Friday has disappeared.

It looks like there is no way for any ceasefire to emerge. Hamas has totally rejected the Egyptian proposal.

The main reason for their rejection is that Hamas gained nothing from the Egyptian brokered deal. There is no real success that Hamas can point to as an accomplishment from the entire operation.

But this is not a sign of total despair. The probable outcome of the breakdown of the talks will be the creation of a status quo without an agreement.

In the absence of a signed agreement, Israel will need to monitor and make certain that quiet reigns in the south. That means that things return to what they were before operation Preventive Edge and if Hamas once again begins to launch rockets at Israel, Israel must immediately respond and re-institute a system of deterrence by quickly and forcefully retaliating.

The system of deterrence forcing Hamas not to attack Israel will be based on Hamas' fear of retaliation by Israel.

If that system is in place a de facto ceasefire will work - and quiet will be returned to the south of Israel, at least, for the short term.

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Hezbollah Lashes Out at ISIS
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah is the head of Hezbollah.

Nasrallah lashed out at ISIS in part two of a rare six hour interview.

Nasrallah called ISIS an "uncontrollable monster conducting horrible massacres," and then he said "They have no reservations: Not ideological, not moral, not religious and not human."
Nasrallah said that ISIS is a "monster that has come to devour the region's people."

Hezbollah challenged ISIS in Syria. Had Hezbollah not stopped ISIS in Syria, ISIS would now be in Beirut.

Nasrallah asks:"If someone steps up to fight this monster ... should they be thanked or condemned?"

That was not the most biting of Nasrallah's critique. His most biting critique of ISIS came in the form of an explanation of their true character. "The danger in ISIS is that they don't differentiate between Shiite, Sunni, Christian, Druze, Yazid or Arab. The monster is growing and everyone should be concerned."

Nasrallah is saying that ISIS will gain access to places where one group claims that others are non-believers and heretics, what is known in Islam as "takfiri." He said "Wherever there is support of takfiri there is a basis (for support) for ISIS. This is in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Gulf states. Any country that thinks it can use this group for its advantage will find out it has no mercy when their turn comes."

And as you look at the map it looks clear that ISIS is on the way.

Never did I think that I would see eye-to-eye with Hassan Nasrallah on anything. On the subject of ISIS, I do.

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Tensions Btw Israel & US Climb
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I have been writing and speaking about increased tensions between the United States and Israel for weeks now.

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a very important piece illustrating some of those tensions. They wrote that Israel tried to fast track the restocking of their arsenal by going through the Pentagon for Hell-Fire air-to-surface missiles and the White House shut them down.

Of course, the administration denies that anything has changed. But it has.

Just listen to how Marie Harf, deputy spokesperson at the State Department, dealt with the issue.

1st she said: "Let me make it very clear - there has been no change in policy. Period."
2nd she said: ... "no other country is as supportive"
3rd she said: ... "it is normal in crisis that each agency pay close attention"
4th she said: there has been "no broad change in our policy"
5th she said "We made it clear publicly that we thought Israel could do more to protect civilians."

It seems that there was a change, but not a broad change and there was a reason for it.

As she continued Harf intimated that Israel was able to strike and even hurt civilians because of US support and weapons and, she said, that was what the United States was concerned about. Her exact phraseology was: "a number of their capabilities because of our support" but nonetheless, the US "continued to provide offensive capabilities as well."

This entire exchange in the State Department briefing room confirms the WSJ report, not the administration's denial.

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Arabs Are Blaming Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have leaked the Egyptian brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

The issues raised in the agreement seem to be reasonable and should satisfy the needs of all the involved parties - Israel, the Palestinian Authority/Hamas and Egypt.

From the leaked document It seems that one of the byproducts of the ceasefire will be the strengthening of Mahmoud Abbas and his PA. The strengthening of Abbas means the weakening of Hamas and that can only be good.

There is no doubt that weakening Hamas is an objective not only of Israel, but also of Egypt. It should not surprise you that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority want the same thing.
So, too, do many of the Palestinians living under Hamas in Gaza.

Many Gazans want Hamas held accountable for their deeds in the recent conflict with Israel. The Washington Post published a powerful story yesterday about Gazans who blame Hamas for their mess.

Hamas can claim victory, but not everyone has to believe them.


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Will Israel Empower Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Naftali Bennett is the leader of a party that is a partner in the Netanyahu coalition. Bennett has been very critical of the prime minister and the concessions Israel has made under the leadership of Netanyahu.

Most recently, Bennett was anguished over the terms Israel agreed to in order to continue a ceasefire with Hamas. As opposed to an even handed swap exchanging quiet for quiet, Israel i.e. Netanyahu, agreed to relax part of the blockade against Hamas in Gaza and to permit money to be transferred through a third party to pay Hamas salaries.

Bennett dubbed the decision "Diplomatic Protection" ... "Pay us now and we'll shoot you later. Don't pay us, we'll shoot you now."

"You can't fight Hamas with one hand, and fund it with the other. The claim the money won't go to terrorism when you give it to Hamas is false, to say the least, and this is exactly why Hamas is insisting on getting this funding."

Bennett is correct. But short of re-entering Gaza and destroying Hamas, what is the alternative.

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Does Hezbollah Have Tunnels Too
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Here's another big question: Has Hezbollah, operating along the northern border of Israel, dug the same types of smuggling tunnels under the Lebanese border into Israel that Hamas dug in Gaza, to the south of Israel.

In other words: Is Hezbollah using the same modus operandi as Hamas.

Yair Golan, the head of Israel's northern command, says the answer is "no". While speaking to Israel's leaders of the north, Golan asserted, with 100% conviction, that Israel has not suspected or discovered tunnels burrowed under the border with Lebanon that would be used to kidnap Israelis.

What Golan did not say is that, like Hamas, Hezbollah has built a gargantuan labyrinth of tunnels inside southern Lebanon. And like the tunnels built by Hamas, the Hezbollah tunnels were built with the assistance of Iranian engineers, are situated deep underground and are outfitted with all the essentials necessary to use them as command and control centers. They have beds, communication networks, editing bays, air conditions, electricity, food.

The Hezbollah tunnels are so deep underground that they cannot be penetrated or destroyed by Israeli air force aerial attacks. They can only be discovered and destroyed by forces on the ground going from place to place.

The Israeli army has been training to confront Hezbollah using the same tools they utilized fighting Hamas in Gaza.

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How Can You Compare
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 11,2014

I've Been Thinking:

Comparisons between Israel and Hamas are not just deeply disturbing, they are simply wrong. They need to be answered and corrected.

First, all rockets are not the same.

Hamas shoots rockets that do not fly straight. That is not a problem for Hamas because their objective is not to hit a specified target, their entire objective is to wreak havoc, cause panic and engage in acts of terror. Furthermore, Hamas removed the explosive heads on their long range rockets so that the rockets fly further. The further the rockets fly into Israel, the more the rockets terrorize Israelis. Hamas celebrates these rockets and the results.

Israel is using laser guided missiles and sometimes, even those rockets miss their targets. When they do miss, Israel expresses regret, Israel does not celebrate.

Second, Israel is a democratic state defending itself against Hamas which is a terrorist organization. The two can never be compared.

Third, a defensive operation - as waged by Israel, can never be confused with aggressive terrorist strikes - as perpetrated by Hamas.

Fourth, all victims are not the same.

In a case in which fighters hide among residents, the 4th Geneva Convention places responsibility and culpability on the hiding fighters. That is also the rule when fighters are not wearing uniforms and are instead wearing civilian clothing to best avoid identification and mingle among local residents.

Fifth, justification is not based on losses and innocent casualties. Because Israel has been lucky and because Israel has created an effective defense called Iron Dome and because Hamas and Islamic Jihad have an ineffective rocket strategy, Israel is not to be penalized for having low casualty numbers.

Low casualty numbers does not diminish the moral rightness of your defense. Israel would not be more in the right if more Israeli civilians were killed. And because Palestinians have had more civilian casualties than the Israelis, that does not make Hamas and Islamic Jihad more correct in their actions and tactics.

These are just a few necessary corrections. The list goes on.


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No Word for Ceasefire in Arabic
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Americans often misunderstand politics and foreign affair only because we do not understand the language and culture of the people and places that we are engaging with.

The Gaza ceasefire is a perfect example of that.

In our culture, a ceasefire means a total stoppage of shooting. It means quiet. It means, as some have put it, that silence will be met with silence.

But in Arabic there are two words being used for ceasefire.

The first word being used is "hudna". Hudna is a long term quiet established because you can defeat your enemy. Hudna is a 10 year agreement that can be broken at any time. And a hudna is often renewed.

The second word being used is "tahadiyeh". A tahadiyeh is a lull.
A lull is akin to a cease fire - but not exactly a ceasefire as we know it. Tahadiyeh means less fire. Shooting less, yet still shooting, is a tahadiyeh.

While The United States and the West would consider it a violation of a ceasefire to keep shooting, a lull is something very different. And Hamas and Islamic Jihad can easily sign on to or agree to a lull and still shoot. (Although Islamic Jihad has said that Hamas does not speak for them, when it suits them, they work together.)

The United States is trying to carve out a hudna. That is totally unrealistic. Those involved in the region, studying the region, trying to advise the region, should know better.

Given the ideology behind Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a tahadiyeh is the best that should be hoped for.

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Political Landscape of Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Unraveling the Gaza political landscape is difficult.

First, we speak only of Hamas and that is misleading. Hamas is certainly the dominant force in Gaza, but Hamas is by no means the only force and, for that matter, Hamas does not even have a monopoly on setting the tone in Gaza.

Islamic Jihad is the second largest group working out of Gaza and, in many ways, it is Islamic Jihad that sets the tone.

And of course, there can be no conversation about politics inside Gaza without mentioning Iran.

It is Iran that empowers Islamic Jihad. They provide money, weapons and support. Once upon a time Iran provided all those things to Hamas, but the Iranians withdrew their support for Hamas after Hamas threw their public support behind the rebels in Syria fighting Assad.

Iran demands a set of stipulations in exchange for their support. And this is where we see the enormous influence and power that Iran holds over Gaza.

Iran has said, demanded, that the Islamic Jihad not accept any ceasefire and demanded that they continue to strike at Israel regardless of the cost. That means that Iran and Islamic Jihad wantonly and regularly with deliberate forethought attack Israel knowing that Gazan residents will die.

Another demand put forth by Iran is that Shiite institutions be established in Gaza. Hamas and Islamic Jihad reject this outright. And in the past there have even been attempts to break into the Sunni world of Gaza.

Iran is trying to reclaim the history of Gaza and to establish some historical links to it. If they are successful and Gaza is turned into a holy place the situation in Gaza will turn into an even more religiously charged conflict. After all, Hisham, the great grandfather of Mohammed was from Gaza. But Hisham was a pagan.

Iranian religious leaders are now saying that Hisham was killed on his way back to Arabia - killed by Jews.

He is buried in Gaza.

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They Do Not Understand
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Two colossal whoppers have come out over the past few days, both by people who are supposed to know better, supposed to understand what is happening in the Middle East.

The first is courtesy of former President Jimmy Carter. Carter suggests recognizing Hamas. His view was expressed in an OPED on the prestigious website Foreign Policy.

Carter writes: "Hamas cannot be wished away, nor will it cooperate in its own demise. Only by recognizing its legitimacy as a political actor - one that represents a substantial portion of the Palestinian people - can the West begin to provide the right incentives for Hamas to lay down its weapons."

The second is courtesy of US National Security Adviser Susan Rice. Rice is suggesting that the ceasefire in Gaza be the beginning of further peace deals.

According to Rice: "It is very important that both sides remain committed to it and use this opportunity to begin the negotiations that we had been working so energetically through US Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama to get off the ground so that the underlines causes of the conflict in Gaza can be addressed at the negotiation table."

Does Rice not realize that Hamas is not a part of the deal? That Gaza is not the West Bank? And that the discussions that US Secretary of State Kerry has been so involved in do not involve Hamas at all?

These two statements are, to say the very least, disturbing.

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Parallel w/ Pancho Villa
By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Thursday August 7, 2014

I am reminded of an important historical parallel.

In 1916 Mexican rebels under the leadership of Pancho Villa terrorized the south western United States. They would cross over the border to murder and run back into Mexico for safety.

The purpose of these attacks was to capture weapons and equipment from the US to help in their fight. Some historians say that it was because Pancho Villa was insulted by President Woodrow Wilson who withdrew his support for Villa and chose instead to support Venustiano Carranzan.

Between March 9 and July 31 of1916 Pancho Villa and his rebels crossed the border into the US and murdered dozens of Americans. The entire city of Columbus, New Mexico was burnt to the ground and 18 Americans were murdered.

Similar events were perpetrated in Glenn Springs, Texas in Ygnacio, Texas and in Fort Hancock, Texas.

The marauding continued until President Wilson sent General John J. Pershing and 5000 US soldiers into Mexico to search for, chase down and attack Pancho Villa and his gang of rebels. In the end they did not capture Pancho Villa - but working together with Mexican authorities, the United States did the US succeed in capturing and executing some of Villa’s commanders.

The parallel, of course, is Hamas and Israel in 2014.


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Hamas Claims Victory
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is claiming that they have emerged victorious from the conflict with Israel.

Hamas communications people are claiming that the result of the current conflict with Israel, all the destruction and all the damage to Gaza is actually a great victory. It shows that Hamas was not defeated but still stands and Israel has lost its advantage and its weapon of intimidation.

Hamas is saying that now it is clear that Hamas cannot be intimidated and or destroyed.

Hamas concludes that now they will rebuild Gaza with the help of those who understand.

Of course the line that Hamas is pitching has no bearing on reality.

Hamas is very close to dead. And it seems that most of the Arab world is not on their same path. Many of those close to Hamas - geographically or even physically as well as other Arabs living in Gaza have articulated their displeasure with Hamas.

The list is very long, it stretches from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. We are seeing television broadcasts throughout the Arab world questioning Hamas, wondering why it took so long to stop shooting and to accept a ceasefire. Arab leaders have said that all the lives that have been lost since Hamas rejected the ceasefire are on their heads.

That is powerful criticism.

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Lone Wolf and Hamas Terror
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It's time to talk about the lone wolf.

As a rule, lone wolves are not part of a group. They do not broadcast their intentions. No one knows their plan, no one except for the lone wolf terrorist.

Lone wolves are every bit as dangerous as members of terrorist organizations. They plan their attacks in their heads. They go over it hundreds of times until they perpetrate their attacks.

Leaders of terrorist movements have begun taking advantage of lone wolves, they are egging them on.

And that explains what happened in Jerusalem yesterday when a tractor driver at a construction site used his tractor to murder 29 year old Avrohom Wallis, a father of 6 children. The terrorist then turned his tractor on a bus, ramming it and ramming it until the bus was upended.

His motivation for the attack came just a few days earlier. Hamas Spokesman Fauzi Barhum demanded that Palestinians attack, attack, attack: He goaded them on with these words: "Do you not have cars, motorcycles, knives, clubs, diggers and trucks? If you do and do not hit Jews or settlers, and do not kill dozen of Zionists - then you are not Palestinian."

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Another Cease-Fire
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A humanitarian ceasefire has been has been announced between Israel and Hamas, again.

This ceasefire is scheduled to take place on Monday, starting at 10am and ending at 5pm.

It will not last more than a few hours. It cannot.

It is my understanding that Iran has given specific orders to Islamic Jihad not to abide by cease fires. And once Islamic Jihad breaks the cease fire, the rest of Hamas can certainly break it.

Israel has obviously responded that if Hamas breaks the ceasefire, they will respond.

There is a fundamental principle at play here.
A cease fire between Israel and Hamas is not a prelude to peace with the Palestinians. Hamas is dedicated to Israel's destruction.

A ceasefire is just a ceasefire, it puts a stop to the shooting, it is not a springboard into peace talks

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Israel Demands US Support
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with United States Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro.

It was a tense conversation.

The bottom line is this: Netanyahu told to the United States not to second guess him when it comes to Hamas and he told the US administration that they should have trusted him all along when dealing with Hamas. Netanyahu said that he expects that the United States will fully support Israel in all future actions against Hamas.

The response by the United States is that they support Israel.

The problem is that the support always comes with caveats and suggestions. In one sentence the United States will say "We support Israel's right to defend itself against rocket attacks" or "No country would tolerate tunnels dug under their land that can be used to launch terror attacks." But then comes a "but." An often used example is "But we are concerned about civilian deaths."

Even the assertion that the tunnels "can be used" which is a direct quote from President Obama from Friday is a qualification. It is not that the tunnels "can be used," the tunnels ARE used - used to launch terror attacks against Israel. That is raison d'etre, it is their one and only purpose.

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Tensions Are High in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are very high in Israel - tensions between Arabs and Jews.
There has been way more than usual spontaneous violence, rock throwing and indiscriminate beatings.

Nerves are very raw.

Last night, for example, as families across Israel were sitting down to eat the Sabbath evening meal, four cars with Israeli flags on them were torched in the upscale Jerusalem neighborhood called the German Colony.

The capture of IDF officer 2nd Lt. Hadar Goldin put Israeli Jews on edge in a way reminiscent of the kidnappings of the three Israeli teenagers Eyal, Gil-Ad and Naftali. Only now there is the added tension of Operation Preventive Edge and the persistent presence of rockets raining down on Israel.

All this will pass and one day, things will again return to a sense of normal.

But until that normalcy arrives tensions will continue to mount and nerves will become even more frayed.

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Tunnel War
By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Friday, August 1, 2014

It is worthwhile thinking about the history of tunnel warfare.

Until now there has never been a weapon able to combat or defeat tunnels when tunnels are used as an attack tool. Tunnels have the element of surprise. Tunnels are almost impossible to detect. Tunnels allow for regress and secret escape.

Israel is fighting to destroy tunnels that are designed as weapons. These are not wine cellars - they are military weapons.

The history of tunnels can be found as far back as the Bible. II Samuel 5:8 describes David as saying that those who succeed and defeat the Jebus, the original name of Jerusalem, will enter through the water tunnel. And so it happened.

The Romans could not defend against tunnels. So much so, that the Romans themselves built a labyrinth of aqua ducts under Rome to help themselves in their time of defense. During the Jewish revolt against Rome, Bar Kochba used tunnels. The Romans tried to smoke them out.

Tunnels were used by the North Vietnamese, the Koreans, the Chinese, the Japanese, the Afghans. They were used by the Germans and the Russians. They were used in WWI and WWII. They were used in the ancient world and in the medieval word and they are used in the modern world.

Tunnels as a weapon of war have not changed much over time - they connect internal units and allow for escape to the outside.

The only way to combat tunnels is to destroy them. That is Israel's goal. And that is why Hamas has booby trapped their tunnels

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The World Doesn't Understand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It pains me to say this, but the world in general has little patience for Israel in their current battle with Hamas. The United Nations and even the United States just want it to stop. They say too many civilian are dying. They say too many UN targets are being hit.

The entire operation seems so lopsided to them. As the world sees it, Israel is so much more sophisticated than Hamas. And Israel has already destroyed so many tunnels. So it is time for Israel to stop and pullout.

What the world does not see, does not understand and does not care about is that the Israeli operation is justified. That Israel has the right to defend itself against the rockets if Hamas. What matters to the world is only that Israel stops.

But what is missing in the call to stop, whether it be echoed by the president of the United States, the secretary of state of the United States, the secretary general of the United Nations or a host of other world leaders is the understanding that stopping the operation before the tunnels are destroyed and while the Hamas military infrastructure is still intact will defeat the purpose of the operation.

Hamas had, at most, 10,000 - 20,000 trained fighters. Those numbers have been depleted, we do not know by how many. Hamas has hundreds and perhaps even thousands of tunnels in Gaza, especially when you count the many tunnels with multiple exits.

The tunnels of Gaza must be destroyed before Israel stops her operation or they will be used to attack Israel again the day after Israel stops. That is not a prediction. It is a fact.

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Report on Religious Oppresssion
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the US State Department published its Report on International Religious Freedom. The gist will not surprise you, it is the details that are appalling.

Since 1998, when Congress passed the International Religious Freedom Act, the State Department has been required by law to submit a report on the state of religious freedom in the world.

There is no question that in many parts of the world people are persecuted because of who they are. They are murdered because of the tribe they are in and the religious community they are members of.

I have written about the oppression of Christians in Egypt and the oppression of Shiites in Iraq. The report tells their story.

In the Syrian city of Homs there were 160,000 Christians just three years ago. Today there are fewer than 1,000. In Mosul a city taken over by ISIS, the second largest city in Iraq, there are now 20 Christian families. Three weeks ago there were 20,000 Christians. ISIS gave them an alternative - leave, convert or die.

This madness must be stopped.

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Israel Has Another Stage in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

At a press conference yesterday Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon announced that there will be a tactical change in Israel's approach over the next few days.

He said:

"If the leaders of Hamas believe that they will be able to keep up a constant barrage of missiles, rockets and terrorist attacks - they are making a big mistake. If terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip think that they'll be able to break the State of Israel and our citizens - in the next few days they'll understand how wrong they are. They're firing at us and we will hit them hard."

The statement by Yaalon predicts that Israel will not merely continue to strike at Hamas as they have been doing, but that Israel is preparing to "hit them hard."

That means that, up until now, Israel has restrained itself. It means that in the final stages of Operation Preventive Edge Israel will go the distance to wipe out Hamas' infrastructure, including the tunnels, and to truly hurt Hamas.

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US - Israel Tensions Rise
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between the US and Israel are now becoming public.

Israelis feels that the United States is not dealing straight with them. Israel feels that the US was simply pressuring them, not Hamas, to accept the terms of the Kerry ceasefire. And Israel feels that the US was pushing Hamas' terms for the ceasefire.

Israel is so upset that they leaked the entire proposed deal to the Haaretz newspaper so that everyone can read the details and confirm for themselves that, indeed, the United States had practically abandoned Israel on this issue. Readers of the proposed document for a ceasefire are left asking what the United States was even thinking in putting those ideas on paper as an official proposal.

As you can imagine, the leaking of the document really ticked off the United States. The US responded by hemming and hawing and saying that the document was meant for comments - not as a final agreement.

The entire episode has shown that there is a real disconnect between the United States and Israel. And it underscores the fact that there is very little good faith between the two countries at this juncture.

Israel thinks that the United States is more interested in a ceasefire than in returning calm to the region. For the United States, getting everyone to stop shooting is a priority. The United States has misplaced priorities.

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Ugly Anti Semitism in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We have been witnessing a huge spike in anti-Semitism in Europe. Much has to do with Israeli Operation Preventive Edge. Preventive Edge is not the cause of the anti-Semitism, it is the release valve for the hatred. The hatred was been simmering, just under the surface, waiting to erupt.

According to reports in Belgium this week, some shops are not serving Jews. The most dramatic example is a cafe which posted two signs one in Turkish and one in French. The Jewish Forward reports the signs as saying "Dogs are allowed in this establishment but Jews are not under any circumstances." The French version of the sign replaced "Jews" with "Zionists."

In addition, outside that same cafe, two flags were hung. The Palestinian flag and the Israeli flag - with a huge red X through it and two kafiyahs, Palestinian scarves, hanging on it.

Sadly, when I wrote about this hatred last week, some people responded saying that those who were exhibiting this ugly hatred were not Europeans but Muslim immigrants --- well, to those people I say, that makes them Europeans.

It is the role of the host nation to educate their immigrants as to what is and what is not acceptable in their country.

I was glad to see the foreign ministers of several European nations stand up this week and, in unison, renounce the rise of anti-Semitism.

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Hamas Being Rcvd By Iran Hezbollah and Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

One of the very bad consequences of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, a consequence that no one else seems to be speaking about, is that this conflict may very well be uniting some very bad, even evil, forces in the Islamic world.

Syria had successfully drove Hamas away from Hezbollah and Iran and Syria. But over the past few days Hamas representatives have had conversations with Hezbollah and Iran. That is bad.

Until now, Hamas has been isolated. Not just politically isolated but also isolated in terms of resources, money and weapons. Only Qatar has been supporting Hamas.

That fissure was caused by Hamas siding with the Sunnis as they were trying to oust Assad in Syria. Iran and Hezbollah took exception to that decision and it was a very ugly divorce.

If there is a rapprochement now - political, economic, weaponry - it will open a whole font of support for Hamas at a time when they are reaching the very end of their stockpiles of weapons and other resources.

Unfortunately this is happening just as Israel is gearing up for a strike that should end Hamas' weapons cache and ability to strike at Israel. If Hamas rekindles their relationship with Iran, Hezbollah and Syria their weapon flow is very likely to be revived.

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Where's the Outrage?
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Where is the outrage?

That was the question a friend posed to me the other day. He was asking why civilized leaders of the world were silent when Hamas attacked and publicly declared that they were targeting civilian transportation and civilian aviation - attacking Israel's largest airport, Ben Gurion.

There has been no official comment by world leaders following the declaration by Hamas. It is as if it is OK for Hamas to target a civilian airport. It is as if the world expected Hamas to target civilian aviation.

But it is not OK. And it is not OK that Hamas has not even been chastised, let alone censured or condemned, for threatening to attack Ben Gurion Airport.

World leaders should be up in arms, they should demand that Hamas be isolated. Instead we have another, blatant, example of the double standard. Israel is condemned for hurting civilians after warning them. Hamas is permitted to attack an airport.

The world is afraid to condemn Hamas, afraid to condemn that which is wrong. Hamas is a terrorist organization - and the world is scared of terror, and that terror is paralyzing.

That scares me.

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Rioters Attack Israeli Soccer Team in Austria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Since the beginning of Operation Preventive Edge, there has been a dramatic increase in attacks against Jews around the world.

In France, two synagogues were fire bombed. People have been assaulted. Pro-Palestinian protests have turned into violent mobs of anti-Semitic riots.

In Austria yesterday a sporting event turned very ugly. Maccabi Haifa soccer team played an exhibition match against Lille from France in Austria. In the 84th minute a group of rioters rushed the field and started beating up the Israeli team which, in turn, started kicking and hitting back. Security was slow to respond and in the end calm was restored but the game was called.

Across Europe there has been an increase in violence and rhetoric against Jews and Israel.

The rhetoric is often couched as anti-Zionism and not anti-Semitism.
In reality, there is no difference between the two - anti-Zionism is anti-Semitism. Violent riots may start off using terms that are anti-Israel but soon the vitriol turns to hatred of the Jew.

The anti-Zionist cliche is simply a socially acceptable veneer for anti-Semitism.

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Laugh - UN Returns Rockets to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Even painful and costly conflicts are not without humor. Sometimes, when we find the humor, it serves as both critique and catharsis.
Laughing helps.

Israel told the United Nations Relief and Works Agency in Gaza that Hamas was hiding rockets in their schools. This has happened several times.

The first time it happened the United Nations school run by UNRWA called up Hamas and asked them to come and please take the weapons out. Hamas did just that. The school was not targeted by Israel. But the rockets were taken to be used by Hamas.

Yesterday, the same thing happened again.

Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird was livid when he heard of these events. How can the UN give weapons to Hamas? Here is what Baird said:
"I was appalled to hear reports, one as recent as today, of stockpiles of rockets in a school run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency in Gaza."

"Even more alarming were reports that in the first case, officials with the United Nations returned these weapons to Hamas, a listed terrorist organization, once Israeli officials discovered their location."

And in conclusion, Baird said, "Canada unequivocally calls on the United Nations to launch an immediate independent investigation to determine the facts surrounding these reports. Canada also calls on the United Nations to ensure that in the second case, no rockets are returned to Hamas. Anything less than an independent investigation would be absolutely unacceptable."

Laugh. It's our only response. Laugh.

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Israel is Not Using Disproportionate Force
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a lot of talk about Israel's "disproportionate" reaction to Hamas.

But proportionate and disproportionate force are not literary or mathematical terms. They are legal terms and mean something very different than what one might think.

The terms are found in the 4th Geneva Convention of 1949 and mean "a defensive operation." In other words, it is by definition a category of self-defense.

The Geneva Convention lays out 3 basic requirements.
# 1: Use the amount of force necessary to remove the threat but not more than that.
# 2: Avoid civilian casualties as much as possible.
# 3: Use as much force as necessary to make certain that the threat does not return.

When these limits have been exceeded, you have perpetrated disproportionate force.

Add to that the Rome Statute which confirms that, under these conditions, in a defensive operation civilian casualties are regrettable but they are not a war crime.

It seems clear that Israel is fulfilling all the requirements of a defensive and proportionate response.

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Israel Respects Human Life
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is a society that respects human life.

The value of human life is primary, it is second to none. And it is for that reason that Israel began the operation in Gaza - to protect the lives of Israeli citizens.

That's Israel. Hamas is different.

Hamas is using their citizens as human shields and it is for that reason that it is innocents who are being killed. Hamas does not care about the deaths of their people. If they did, they would not use human shields and they would certainly have accepted the ceasefires.

Israel has a very low threshold for the deaths of innocent civilians and even for the deaths of soldiers. Israelis have an even lower threshold for kidnapping.

Hamas operates differently.

In order of goal prioritization, Hamas wants to kidnap soldiers, kill as many civilians as possible and kill as many soldiers as possible.

Up until Sunday Israel was very successful at preventing Hamas from achieving any of their goals. But it was always clear that as soon as Israel initiated a ground operation in Gaza, the risks would increase dramatically.

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ISIS Take Over Oil in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past week our attention has shifted to Gaza and Israel. But there are still major issues that need to be monitored.
Syria had been relatively quiet.

ISIS, now IS, took its battle to Iraq and forces loyal to Assad are mopping up major swaths of regions that had been under the control of IS.

Then yesterday, from out of nowhere, IS attacked and captured a major oil field in Dir el Zour. It is the most significant oil production area in Syria and it fell to the Islamic State.

In the process over 100 of Assad's soldiers were killed and 200 taken captive. While at the same time only 20 IS fighters were killed.
This is a huge victory for IS, Baghdadi and his movement - not from the economic point of view but because of how the capturing those oil fields will stifle Assad's economy.

IS does not have the wherewithal to extract the oil and the markets and ability to sell the oil. But they prevented Assad from having it.

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Hamas Does Not Listen
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 18, 2914

I've Been Thinking:

It should be abundantly clear that Hamas does not listen to any outsiders. Not Egypt, not Turkey, not Qatar.

And it should be absolutely clear that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has absolutely no influence over Hamas either.

That was the case before the unity government and it is the case now with the conflict between Hamas and Israel.

It should all be crystal clear.

In many ways Abbas is happy that Hamas is being pounded by Israel. Destroying Hamas's leadership and organizational infrastructure allows Abbas to lead with fewer restrictions and hindrances in the West Bank.

There is a small chance that if Hamas is weakened a scenario will emerge in which Gaza will toe the line with Abbas and again join the PA. It is only a small chance and it is very unlikely, but it is possible. Should it happen, it would require enormous PA police resources in order to bring Gaza under its wing and to keep Hamas under control.

It would also mean dissolving the Hamas / Palestinian Authority unity government.

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Hamas Can't Have a Ceasefire Yet
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

People are asking me to explain why does Hamas not want a ceasefire, not even for a few days.

The answer is simple.

Hamas does want a ceasefire, but Hamas cannot accept a cease fire.

One reason Hamas cannot accept a cease is because of Egypt - and spitting in the eye of the Egyptians is a very attractive byproduct of not accepting the Egyptian sponsored plea for the ceasefire.

Hamas wants Egypt to squirm. Hamas wants the Egyptians to open their borders and if they do, then Hamas will consider agreeing to a ceasefire.

But the main reason Hamas cannot participate in a ceasefire is that they have nothing to show for all the rockets they have launched into Israel. Hamas cannot point to a single success. And given the tremendous damage inflicted by Israel on Gaza, they need to show their people some symbols of victory.

In the eyes of Hamas victory means huge numbers of Israel casualties and gross amounts of damage.

That is what Hamas needs. And that is a Catch-22 Middle East style.

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US Allocates More for Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee just approved a spending bill that will allocate $621.6 million to Israel for missile defense.

Of that, $351 million is directly allocated to the Iron Dome.

In this time of military aid cutbacks and the reduction of defense budgets, this is a huge success. Dick Durban, the chair of the subcommittee, said "it works." He was referring to the Iron Dome. The Iron Dome saves lives.

The Iron Dome cost billions of dollars to develop but costs only $70 million to assemble. Each missile costs about $20,000 to $30,000.

Right now Israel has 8 Iron Dome batteries. There is no doubt that Israel needs more batteries because, just as the senator said, "it works."

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Hamas and their Drone
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle called a UAV. Actually, UAV is the technical term, in simpler terms we would say that Israel shot down a Hamas drone.

The drone was shot down using US made Patriot anti-missile technology. Patriots, while once very popular, have not been used in Israel since 1990.

Hamas claims that they have several drones - some for reconnaissance, some to assist in real time attacks and some that can launch weapons.

To prove their point Hamas released three pictures taken by a drone. The problem with the pictures is that it is not clear if the photos were taken recently or even for that matter, if they were taken over Israel.

Hamas also claims that they possess Abibil 1 drones made in Iran and that their engineers have developed newer and better ones.

While Hamas does have some extremely modern and up-to-date weapons in their arsenal, in many ways they are not sophisticated in their attacks against Israel.

What the UAV drone does prove, however, is that they do have weapons, including some long range rockers, that were produced by Russia, Iran and China.

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Gaza Cuts Off its Own Electricty
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has some long range rockets. They received these rockets from Iran and Syria. Some are Russian made, some Chinese made and some produced in Iran.

These rockets are extremely dangerous for Israel - they have a range that puts 80% of Israel in the target zone.

But Hamas has many more short range rockets than long range.

Yesterday, one of Hamas' short range rockets never made it out of Gaza, Instead, it landed on a major electric power line in Northern Gaza and cut off the power to 70,000 Gazans living in Khan Younis and Deri el Balah.

The electric line now needs to be fixed. But it is the Israelis who need to go in and fix it because Gaza gets its electricity from Israel. But it is very dangerous task to undertake right now.

Prime Minister Netanyahu told the electric company not to endanger the lives of their workers in order to fix the line. He said wait until the situation quiets down. In other words, why jeopardize the lives of Israeli electric workers to fix what Hamas broke.

Hamas destroyed their own electric line while attempting to murder and terrorize Israelis. That should not guarantee them a repair call.

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Hamas Cannot Shoot Straight
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A rocket shot from Gaza landed in Hebron and destroyed a home. Two other rockets landed in the Palestinian city of Bethlehem.

Hebron is a city mostly controlled by Hamas. So yes, in their attempt to strike at Israel, Hamas is shooting rockets and hitting their own people.

Hamas responded by saying that they know the geography and they will not hit Arabs. They know the difference. The problem is that the weapons they are using do not know the difference and are not very sophisticated.

Hamas is using point and shoot weapons. They can only adjust the angle after seeing where their rocket lands. But Hamas does not have the ability to correct their shots and try again because the launchers need to be hidden immediately afterwards. And the rockets they are using are not uniformly filled with the same amount of fuel, so they travel different distances and speeds.

The hardest part for Hamas is hitting into the mountains. Gaza is located on the coastal plain and gauging where their rockets will land is almost impossible. They need to not only calculate distance, they need to consider elevation. That is why their rockets hit Hebron and Bethlehem.

It is obvious that Hamas cannot accurately shoot rockets, and it should be just as obvious that that is not their objective. The objective of Hamas is to disrupt the lives of Israelis and to cause as much fear as possible. If they were to hit a target it would be luck, not skill.

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The Differnce is In the Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 12, 2014
I've Been Thinking:

The Iron Dome has become the hero of Israel, much like the Patriot was during the gulf war.

We must realize, however, that there are risks involved when relying on the Iron Dome so much.

The Iron Dome is, after all, simply a computer. And as we all know, computers crash and fail and don't always do what we want as fast as we want.

The Iron Dome is an extremely important part of Israel's homeland defense. But there are only 8 batteries. Until yesterday, there were only 7. That means that the defense system is over worked and that the teams manning them are extremely stressed.

Imagine the pressure that is put on the operating teams running these Iron Dome batteries. (And to help you understand, let me point out that most of the teams use port-a-johns that do not have running water or showers and their parents pitch in by bringing them quality food to eat.)

The essential point was made by Israeli PM Netanyahu at a press conference on Friday.

The prime minister said that the real difference between "us" and "them" is that over the past few years Israel has spent billions creating innovative defense weapons to defend civilians, while "they use civilians to defend their weapons."

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US Offer to Broker Ceasfire - Crazy
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Thursday.

Obama offered to broker or negotiate a cease fire between Israel and Hamas. Then, in the course of their conversation, they touched on other issues including the US teen who was beaten and arrested in Israel, as well as Iran.

If you are thinking how magnanimous, how gracious, how hopeful it is that the president of the United States is offering to broker a cease fire, let me stop you right there. It is time for a reality check.
The United States does not have relations with Hamas. And by stepping forward to broker a deal, Obama elevates Hamas to the level of the United States and of Israel.

If the US engages with Hamas even for this positive objective it is tantamount to inviting Hamas to join the table of world leaders.

The fact that the White House would even suggest assuming the role of negotiator between Israel and Hamas shows how little they understand both the conflict and the region.

It is the opposite of hopeful, it is devastating.

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Operation Preventive Edge Cost
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Operation Preventive Edge, like all military operations, is costly.

The biggest cost is the human cost. The high risks inherent in military operations often lead to the deaths of soldiers and of civilians.

There is also the financial cost.

In 2012, Operation Pillar of Defense cost Israel NIS 2 billion. That amounts to about $585 million. It comes out to about NIS 25 million per day of the operation. Pillar of Defense lasted only 8 days and was far less costly than Operation Cast Lead which took place in 2008-2009.

Operation Preventive Edge is probably costing Israel about 40 million shekel, or 10 million dollars, a day. It is worth it.
Bringing quiet back to the area is worth the cost.

We need to remember, however, that undertaking a military operation of this scope and magnitude is what is referred to as a recurring cost. This operation is not a solution. Operation Cast Lead ended in 2009 and Operation Pillar of Defense took place in 2012.

Expect that Israel will enter into another military operation in 2 or 3 years. The next operation might very well be called Operation Back to Gaza.

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Hamas Has Outwitted the Iron Dome
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has successfully outwitted Israel's Iron Dome by lowering its efficiency.

The Iron Dome is designed to intercept incoming low range rockets. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian Resistance Committees have overloaded the Iron Dome - much like hackers will overload a web site.

The Iron Dome can track only one or two rockets at a time, so, by launching multiple rockets at the same target from nearly the same area, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have rendered it nearly unworkable. Hamas has successfully, simultaneously, launched ten rockets seriously limiting the response capability of the Iron Dome.

Hamas has also been launching long range rockets. In order to defend its targets within Israel the Iron Dome is now required to spread its batteries out over wider and wider areas. The more thinly spread the Iron Dome is, the less efficient it will be. The tactics now employed by Hamas make it nearly impossible for the Iron Dome to work as envisioned.

Hamas has pulled apart the Dome and overloaded it at the same time.

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Israel Begins Operation in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:


The Israeli cabinet has agreed to respond to the increased rocket fire from Gaza. Yesterday over 80 rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel. 30 of those rockets were shot within a 30 minute period.

The cabinet agreed to steadily increase their engagement in Gaza until they achieve their goal.

The Israeli air force has begun to identify and attack targets. The main objective of this operation is to eliminate the leadership of Hamas.

The operation is called Tzok Eytan, in translation the operation is called "Preventive Edge." A "tzok" is a precipice and "eytan" means strong. It is a literary term which means having the strength not to go over the edge.

The operation's name says it all. The objective of the operation is to carry out a controlled mission - not to go impulsively or impetuously over the edge and into Gaza.

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Immeasurable Harm Done to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The brutal murder of a 16 year of Palestinian boy named Mohammed Abu Kheidr by six Jewish Israelis was beyond despicable.

The murder of this young boy has done immeasurable harm to Israel. In some ways, it has lowered Israel to the level of Hamas.

It is essential that Israeli and Jewish leaders around the world renounce the act as the horrific murder of an innocent child. All leaders - left and right - must make certain that their ideas are clearly stated and articulated and that they cannot be misinterpreted. They must make it clear - the murder of a child is wrong and can never be justified.

Each and every person who holds a position of authority in the Jewish and Israeli world must speak out. Educators, rabbis, politicians and parents must all clearly articulate where they stand on the murder of a child and stop those who would plot to murder innocent children.

Decrying this senseless, brutal act is what will separate Israeli and Jewish leadership and the Israeli and Jewish masses from Palestinians leadership and from Palestinian masses.

The Israeli and Jewish mass media condemned the murder as did the masses and the highest echelons of Israeli political leadership.
Israeli police solved the case in a matter of hours. The messages were uniform - they condemned the murder as senseless and wrong and evil.

The Palestinian leader condemned the kidnapping and murder of the three Israeli teens, but the Palestinian mass media glorified the murder. The official media outlets made fun of the kidnapped teens and did not condemn it at all. Other than the president, no other Palestinian leader was quoted in their media condemning the kidnapping and murder of Israelis. On the contrary, we have numerous recordings of Palestinian leadership supporting kidnappings.

There are many differences between Israelis and Palestinians. These senseless murders, these acts of terror, serve to highlight some of the most glaring of those differences.

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When Will Israel Strike?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza continues to launch rockets into Israel. It is a psychological weapon more than anything else.

Hamas and Hamas affiliates and friends in Gaza is being very methodical about the launches. It is in their best interests to make certain that Israel does not retaliate with a heavy hand - either by air strikes or a ground offensive. Thus far, Israel has only lightly responded to the rocket fire.

Gaza, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and the Palestine Resistance Committees are all responsible for the manufacturing, importing and shooting of these rockets into Israel.

They are trying to calculate how many they can shoot and still not draw Israel into a massive response. So far they have calculated correctly. Eight or nine rockets a day seems to come in under the threshold, fifteen maybe too many. But there is a cumulative effect. After a total of "X" rockets are launched int Israel, the Israelis will respond very seriously to the rocket fire.

At first, Israel will probably respond by air. If that is not effective they will launch a ground strike.

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Jews Smuggled Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

This heartwarming story was recently cleared for publication.

A Syrian Jewish family of nine has been reunited with family in Israel. In the midst of an ugly war, Israel was able to rescue a family and bring them across the border to safety.

It happened in May and the mission was conducted in several stages, bringing out family members is small groups so as not to arouse suspicion and increase the chances of danger. Israelis and non-Israelis were involved in this underground railroad to freedom.

Once upon a time Syria had a rich and vibrant Jewish community complete with remarkable historical sites. Much of that changed with this terrible civil war that has enveloped the country. Until recently, the old synagogue in Damascus called Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue was intact. But a few months ago the battle between Assad's forces and the rebels destroyed the synagogue which was built on the spot where tradition holds that Elijah (Eliyahu Hanavi) and his fiery chariot ascended to heaven as Elisha watched.

The nine members of this Syrian Jewish family are now at home in Israel - reunited with family and old friends and making new friends gathered in Israel from all corners of the world.

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Murdering Children is Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past 24 hours more than 50 rockets have been shot into Israel from Gaza. The Israeli response has been to target the rocket launching site.

The world needs to understand the Israeli response: Israel is responding directly to the launching of these rocket into Israel, this is not a response to the brutal murder of three Israeli children by Hamas.

Israel has not yet decided on a policy and a response to the kidnapping and the terrible murder of these three angelic characters.

Israel will not pursue vengeance. Israel will pursue the kidnappers and they will find them. But it will be out of a sense of justice and a sense of principle - not a quest for revenge.

When the uncle of Naftali Frenkel, one of the murdered boys, responded to the murder of a Palestinian teenager he said that he hopes that it was not revenge or nationalistic. He said that murdering a teenager is wrong, just wrong, whether they be Jewish or Arab. He said that all blood is equal, all the same.

Both sides, Palestinians and Israelis, Arabs and Jews, are trying to play the victim. Victims are given a wide berth by the Western community and each side is vying for indulgence when they respond to the events of these past few weeks and days.

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Iran Has the Upper Hand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

As talks resume between Iran and the 5 +1 powers in Vienna, Iran has begun to strut.

All the parties understand that the July 20th deadline for the agreement is but a few days away. There is a possibility that an extension may be in order, but only if there is real progress and the chance that an extra week or two, or four, would result in a signed agreement.

Iran has the upper hand and the leverage. They see how the US really, really wants the agreement and they know full well that the threats and rhetoric emerging from the West are empty.

Here is how the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif put it at his press conference in Geneva:

"We have never bowed down to imposition and we will not accept it in this round of talks either."

Iran feels strong and they have a sense that the United States will capitulate. Given the facts on the ground, there is no reason for them to feel otherwise.

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Israelis in Shock
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 1, 2014

Column:

The kidnapping and brutal murder of three teenage boys in Israel by Hamas terrorists has been a devastating experience for Israel and for many Jews around the world. Talk of the boys, well wishes and prayers, worry and concern united all Israelis across the often divisive political, religious, economic and ideological spectrum that is Israel. The mothers of the boys became symbols of strength in the face of unspeakable adversity. Now that the mutilated bodies of three teenage boys have been found, a new chapter emerges.

As devastating as it was, however, the kidnapping has allowed Israel a great advantage in the battle with Hamas. Israel can now take actions, almost without limitations, against Hamas, the enemy that publicly and vociferously swears to destroy them - the people and the state. And Israel will try to destroy Hamas.

Kidnapping civilians, especially school children, is way beyond the pale. It is a violation that can be viewed in only one way -- it is an act of terror.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the Western world did not question Israel's activities against Hamas in their crusade to find the boys. They understood that Israel was taking advantage of the situation and slowly rooting out the infrastructure of Hamas and they understood why.

Israel is not traditionally the recipient of world support for their activities and actions in the region in general and, more specifically, against the Palestinian Authority. And remember, only weeks before the kidnapping the PA and Hamas signed an agreement to form a unity government. So why were things different this time around?

Primarily, because kidnapping boys is taboo. Following that, because despite the veneer of harmony and unity, Hamas is still and always will be a radical Islamic group. Western leaders are seeing and feeling the encroaching dangers of radical Islam in more and more ways and they are powerless to confront it. They see it most strongly in al Qaeda, in Iraq and in Syria. And so far Israel, which bears the brunt of the danger, has exercised great restraint. Even now, in their concerted effort to hunt down and destroy Hamas, they have kept the violence down and even their arrests have been extremely specific and targeted.

It will take time, but everyone responsible for the murders will be found. The process must be slow in order to be methodical. It is an intelligence operation. Israel is getting at Hamas and its organizational structure not just in and around Hebron, where the bodies were found, but in Bethlehem and Ramallah, as well.

Israel has seized hundreds if not thousands of computers from Hamas.
And in those computers resides the infrastructure of the organization. The unity government brought Hamas out into the open in the West Bank. And that meant that they dropped their guard concerning the secrecy of their organization. It is all in their computers. And now those hard drives and contacts are being used to track down senior and less senior members of the terrorist organization. The web of groups is being dismantled. And with that will come the continued capture and arrest of Hamas members.

In response, Hamas has once again pledged 'to rain down hell on Israel,' according to their spokesman Sami Abu Zurhi. But the Israeli government is not the only government that Hamas wants to bring down and destroy.

Hamas has an objective. Hamas has already set its machinery in motion to topple its new unity partner, the PA, and conquer the hearts and minds of the youth of the West Bank. They want to take over the West Bank and oust the Palestinian Authority.

Israel is not destroying Hamas to support Abbas. Not at all ... although that is a byproduct of Israel's actions. They are striking down Hamas to better secure Israel. Abbas has known all along that Hamas was behind the kidnappings, but publicly, he was asking for proof. TV stations within the Palestinian Authority did not cover the news that the boys' were bodies were discovered. Palestinians watched that on Al Jazeera.

The vision Hamas has of one day usurping control of the West Bank from Fatah and the Palestinian Authority slips further and further away with every passing day as they continue to be squeezed by Israel.

Israel will stop only when their objective has been achieved.

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White House Blows It: Doesn't Say Murderers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Decades from now people will remember where they were when they heard the news that the bodies of the three teenage Israeli boys who had been kidnapped by Hamas terrorists 18 days earlier where found - brutally murdered in the hills north of Hebron.

The callousness of the language used by the White House in offering official condolences shocked me. Put aside for a moment the fact that one of the boys, Naftali Frenkel, was a US citizen. This is how Josh Earnest, Chief White House Spokesman, spoke about the news in an official statement:

"We obviously condemn in the strongest possible terms violence that takes the lives of innocent civilians."

What a perversion!

The boys were brutally murdered by terrorists and the White House refers to it as violence. They were teenagers, innocent boys, and the White House calls them civilians.

And then the president and the state department continue by calling for all parties to show restraint.

The White House should issue an apology!

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Hamas Lashes Out at Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has taken aim at PA leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Mousa Marzook, the deputy head of Hamas, posted a diatribe against Abbas on his Facebook page. The final words of the letter shout "you have abandoned the West Bank."

The reason for the letter is to tell the Palestinian people that, from Hamas' point of view, Abbas has totally given in to Israel. To tell them that there has been no substantive PA response to Israel. That as a leader Abbas is a weakling. And, most importantly, that Palestinians cannot expect anything more from Abbas.

Marzook wrote: "You gave respect to your enemy when three settlers were kidnapped. Haven't you noticed that more than 566 Palestinians have been taken from you and five have been killed since then? You've abandoned the West Bank."

According to Marzook, the obvious counter to Abbas' non-response, would be the response of Hamas which is to shoot rockets and deliver consistent blows to Israel. So while Israel attacks Palestinians in the West Bank and roots out the infrastructure of Hamas in the West Bank, Hamas from Gaza hammers away at Israel on a daily basis.

Marzook need not even ask the obvious question, the Palestinians know where he is taking this diatribe --- decide now, who is the better leader, which is the better party?

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Israel Pleads w US on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Today a high level delegation of Israeli security, intelligence and nuclear experts arrived in DC for an emergency meeting that they themselves called. The group includes Israel's Intelligence Minister, Minister of Security Affairs, Director Strategic Affairs and Deputy Director of Strategic Affairs in the Foreign Ministry, a high ranking Mossad agent and a member of the military directorate.

They came to the United States to demand -- or rather, to plead, that the US and the West not capitulate to Iran. Israel is worried that the United States wants a deal so badly that they will give in on several essential issues.

One of the main issues on Israel's agenda is uranium enrichment. Israel wants to make certain that Iran cannot enrich their uranium and if they do, to keep it below 3.5%.

The other major issue is that the agreement itself should be centered on disarmament - not on observations and monitoring. The point Israel is making is that Iran has proven very effective at getting around the observers and monitoring.

It was a good sign that DC agreed to meet with the Israelis for this last minute meeting. The deadline for an agreement with Iran is July 20.

But it is unlikely that the United States will alter its POV. As Israel fears, the United States wants an agreement and they are willing to give in on and to give up on almost everything to accomplish that goal.

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Jews Thrown Out of Summit
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Jewish delegation was thrown out of the 23rd African Union Summit taking place in Equatorial Guinea.

The Summit was supposed to open with a moment dedicated to the three teenaged Israeli boys kidnapped by Hamas. But that never happened.

As the Summit was supposed to kick off, the Arab League refused to enter the hall. The Jewish delegation was already seated. In the end, the Jewish delegation, referred to as the Israeli delegation by the Arab League, was ejected. Only then did the Arab League enter the hall.

The Jewish group was composed of 14 members of the President's Conference of Major American Jewish Organizations. It also included a sitting US congresswoman.

The Jewish group was invited to the African Union Summit by its host, the president of Equatorial Guinea, who was deeply offended by the Arab League snub of his guests. He called the group to apologize and to invite them to dinner but they had already departed the country.

And as this was all happening Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, was sitting in the hall. He did nothing to help or to stop the Jewish delegation from being evicted. He did not even intervene. Neither did the Prime Minister of Spain.

These powerful men could have, at the least, accompanied the Jewish delegation as they walked out of the Summit hall.

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FM Lieberman in Paris
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has been in Paris.

In Paris Lieberman met with US Secretary of State John Kerry and with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.

Talks went well. But, and this is no secret, Lieberman has a reputation. He is very direct and not very diplomatic - especially when it comes to compromise and settlements. Considering that he is the chief diplomat of Israel, those are not traits one would ideally want to flaunt.

In his talks with Kerry, Lieberman said that there is no need for a Palestinian peace deal right now. A regional peace plan, he explained, would be much more effective.

In his talks with Fabius of France, Lieberman said that there is a warped and incorrect comparison floating around and it needs correcting. He said that one cannot compare the action of the kidnappers to the actions of the IDF.

Lieberman explained: There is no parallel and no commonalities upon which to compare.

The terrorists kidnapped children.

The IDF is trying to find them. One is accountable to a democratically elected state pursuing justice and peace and trying to defend a nation in a very ugly neighbor from armies and terrorists.

The other is a terrorist group that kills indiscriminately. Its objective is to target civilians and cause as much fear as possible.

The fact that the terrorists claim to be justified by righting an injustice does not make it any less terror. Terrorism is defined by the methods not the reasons and rationale.

Lieberman was on point. No gaffes. No inflammatory rhetoric. This time, he spoke plainly and clearly and made his points rather eloquently. Agree with him or not, he spoke like a true diplomat and statesman.

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Abbas:Incentivize Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We have known about the practice for years, but we never knew the figures.

Everyone knew that the Palestinian Authority paid prisoners who were convicted and sitting in Israeli cells. But until the other day when
Naftali Bennett gave the figures, we never knew how much. They are mind boggling.

The PA spends NIS 44 million per month paying prisoners. The message that sends is deeply problematic -- and contrary to the public message Abbas is articulating.

Abbas condemns acts of terror but rewards the terrorists monetarily.

A prisoner convicted and sentenced to 0-10 years in an Israeli jail will receive NIS 4,000/ month. 10-15 years gets NIS 6,000/month. 25-30 years gets NIS 10,000/month and a prisoner sentenced to over 30 years gets NIS 12,000/ month. In addition, each prisoner receives NIS 400 twice a year for incidentals.

Compare that to the average Palestinian police salary of NIS 2,700/ month.

It seems clear that there is a monetary incentive for Palestinians to commit acts of terror - and the greater the terror the greater the reward.

The money paid to the terrorist comes from aid donated to the Palestinian Authority as does almost all the money in the PA budget. So, in the end, it is US money that is paying Palestinian terrorists.
Worse yet, US aid is stimulating terror.

That needs to change. Congress needs to be made aware of this. Naftali Bennett has the right idea.

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Search for Kidnapped Boys Ending 1st Stage
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

According to an Israeli army report, the IDF will "exhaust" its search for the three kidnapped teens in the Hebron area over the next few days.

That begs the essential question. What happens next?

The hope is that the boys will be found ... but what happens if they are still not found.

Several options emerge.

The first is to "expand in." Change the search parameters and intensify the search in certain specific areas within Hebron if you are certain that that is where they are being held.

The second is to "expand out." Focus on where else the kidnappers could be hiding their hostage. That means searching every Arab village to the north, south, east and west of Hebron. All of them.
And then expand the search toward Gaza.

"Exhaust"-ing the search does not mean that the search is concluded.
It means that the first stage of the search is concluded. The search will go on.

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Israel Hits Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The rocket that was shot from Syria into Israel is a violation of the cease fire between the countries, and the death of a thirteen year old Israeli is tragic - but the incident must be viewed as an isolated event.

Never the less, Israel responded by launching nine sets of Spike ground to ground missiles into Syria. The Spike missiles are extremely accurate weapons and all the missiles hit their targets in the Syrian Golan. The targets were Syrian army positions, including the command post of the 90th Division headquartered in the Golan.
Israel needed to respond. Syria launched the rocket on purpose. It was not an errant missile gone astray from a battle with al Qaeda. And it killed a 13 year old boy. Israel decided that it was worth the risk of escalating tensions in an area that has been quiet and under control and shot back.

As always, Israel has to weigh response and retaliation against defense and deterrence. Overreacting might incite war. Inaction might stimulate more rockets and more bombs lobbing into Israel.

It is a gamble that Israel is willing to take. For Israel, every life is valuable and valued. And Israel has determined, militarily and politically, that a precision strike at the force which launched the rocket was the right decision.

We will soon know if their calculation was correct.

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World Cup - A Protest Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

World Cup fever is electrifying. All over the world fans are watching the games. National allegiances and national pride are always primary reasons to cheer for you team.

Yesterday Iran lost to Argentina 1-0 in the World Cup competition.

Before the match, outside the stadium, a group of people came to demonstrate, demanding that Iran be held accountable for the 1994 terrorist bombing in Buenos Aries at the AMIA Jewish Community Center, killing 85 people. It was the worst terror attack in the history of Argentina. The names of the victims were recited and there was a minute of silence.

An investigation concluded that Iran was responsible for the attack, but it went no further than that.

Interestingly, Israel's Channel 2 News interviewed several Iranians as they entered the stadium and they gave very positive responses to Israel and the news. One Iranian even said, "we love Israel." Another said, "Israel is good."

These Iranians might be arrested when they return home. Iran leadership does not take kindly to public disagreements, especially in the media. Remember the six Iranian dancers who were arrested for singing about happiness and posting it on Youtube? They have been released but they had to make a public apology.

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Saudi King Visits Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The 89 year old King of Saudi Arabia flew to Cairo on Friday night to visit Egypt's new president.

While it is only a short, quick flight across the Red Sea given his advanced age, the Saudi head does not often fly. The trip is a show of support for al Sisi. And since the ousting of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood from leadership in July of last summer, the Saudis have been extremely supportive of al Sisi and the new Egypt.

The Saudis see the Muslim Brotherhood as a threat to the entire region. The Brotherhood is a form of radical Islam. They are the progenitors of Hamas. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have experience with these groups and their understanding of Islam and they want to root out the threats they impose.

In addition, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are hoping to re-establish an Arabic leadership which will direct the Middle East that lures people away from Iran and the other influences that have filled the gap since the fall of Mubarak.

This is a very important trip.

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Hamas Says "Will Rain Hell on Israel"
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has pledged "to rain down hell on Israel," according to their spokesman Sami Abu Zurhi.

Hamas is responding to Israel's response to the kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers a week ago yesterday.

Now, seven days after the kidnapping, Israel is searching for the boys and they are using that search to destroy Hamas in the West Bank.

The Palestinian Authority / Hamas unity government has been in place for only a few weeks and Hamas has already set its machinery in motion to topple the PA and conquer the hearts and minds of the youth of the West Bank.

But now Israel is getting at the organizational structure of Hamas - and not just in Hebron but in Bethlehem and Ramallah, as well.
Israel has seized hundreds of computers from Hamas. They are rooting out Hamas from all those areas.

For everyday that Hamas holds the boys, their own vision of one day usurping control of the West Bank from Fatah and the PA slips further and further away.

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Israel Clamps Down on Hamas Prisoners
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has decided to apply pressure on Hamas prisoners in Israeli prisons.

The Israeli Prison Authority has announced a policy that will curtail privileges for all Hamas prisoners who are security prisoners.
Security prisoners are those prisoners convicted of terror activities and they are held in separate sections of the prisons. Security prisoners do not interact with the rest of the prison population.

These Hamas prisoners will not be permitted visitors. They will lose their television privileges. They will not be permitted to purchase additional items from the prison cafeteria.

To those who believe that Israel cannot limit these privileges, that
Israel is not permitted to put a halt to the privileges Hamas prisoners receive - you are wrong. Watching television in prison is a privilege, not a right. And not to have the privilege of watching television during the World Cup is, for Hamas prisoners, a greater punishment than one can imagine.

Israel is squeezing Hamas from all angles by shutting down Hebron, isolating Hamas internationally, applying diplomatic pressure and curtailing activities for Hamas security prisoners.

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Israel is Now Attacking Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

As devastating as it is, the kidnapping of three Israeli teens has allowed Israel a great advantage in the battle with Hamas - Israel can now take actions, almost without limitations, against Hamas.

Kidnapping civilians is way beyond the pale. It is a violation that can be viewed only as an act of terror by the Western World. Europe and most Western counties in the United Nations do not question
Israel's activities against Hamas in their crusade to find the boys.
Israel is taking advantage of the situation and is slowly rooting out the infrastructure of Hamas.

It will take time to find the three kidnapped boys. Israel is working tirelessly to find the kidnappers and they will, eventually, find them. Hopefully, when Israel does find the terrorists they will be able to return three missing sons to their families.

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Iran is in Iraq Fighting Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

At least 2000 elite Iranian soldiers, member of the al Quds Brigade, are fighting in Iraq. The soldiers are there along with their commanders and other senior advisers.

Interestingly, the al Quds Brigade arrived in Iraq on Thursday and the European press began their covering on Friday and Saturday. The Wall Street Journal reported the story today.

Now that the Iranians are inside Iraq, the United States is saying that there may be some potential synergy because them and the Iranians since they both want to oust the al Qaeda Islamic Army of Levant from Iraq.

So now, as the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran break down, the situation in Iraq might just be the bridge that connects the US and Iran and forges a cooperative effort.

But understand, this kind of cooperation is not without very big risks. Very big risks, indeed.

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Kidnapping is A Trauma Felt Around the World
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The kidnapping of three Israeli teenage students has resulted in traumatic and emotional pain. Trauma felt around the Jewish world.

The search for the boys has become the most essential national political issue in Israel. The cabinet, the parliament, the army, police, intelligence and diplomatic branches are all working, almost exclusively, on getting the boys back.

Those coordinating the search believe that the boys are still in the Hebron area. They are interrogating more and more people and gaining more and more information.

The fragments of the story of the abductions are slowly coming together. Soon the entire puzzle will be pieced together. It is clear that Hamas is responsible. Israel's prime minister said so.
The United States secretary of state said so.

When all the pieces are in place, a plan will be put into place. And questions will arise. Should Israel negotiate and trade for the boys or should they try to free them through military means. The risks are very costly in both circumstances. In one case it means releasing terrorists who might murder again and an incentive for more kidnappings. In the other case it means the possible sacrifice of soldiers and the kidnapped boys in a rescue attempt.

These are difficult questions. There are no simple answers. There are no easy answers.

Prayers can only help.

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3 Boys Kidnapped by Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Thursday night kidnapping by terrorists of three Israeli teenage boys has stunned Israel and Jews around the world.

Synagogues throughout the world recited prayers for the three boys, hoping that they are still alive and that they will be returned safely to their families.

There are only several possible scenarios. The worst is that they are already dead. The best scenario is that the terrorists are interested in exchanging the boys for prisoners in Israeli jails. Other scenarios are variations on these two.

Now the intelligence teams have to piece together the story. How it happened, the timeline and who did it. With this information will also come the motivation of the terrorists. After this information is pieced together it will be easier for Israel to determine what to do.

Right now Israel needs to focus on what happened. That is the best way to find the boys.

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Iraqi Rebels Behead
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Things are getting even worse in Iraq.

To get some sense of how bad it is, look at these figures reported by The London Telegraph.

The Telegraph reported that 800 rebels from the Islamic Front of Iraq and Levant (or Syria, known by its initials ISIL or ISIS) chased out 25,000 police and 30,000 soldiers from Mosul in Northern Iraq. (I did not add an extra zero.)

That is remarkable. The rebels are al Qaeda affiliates in Iraq and Syria. They are even more brutal than you could imagine. They behead people regularly in public and institute Shariyah (Islamic) law. The fear of beheading was enough to make 55,000 people - trained soldiers and police, run away.

And when the Iraqi police and soldiers ran away, they left their (American made) tanks and weapons right where they were for the rebels to simply swoop up.

Talk about re-gifting!

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Oil Prices Go Up B/C of Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Oil is one of those commodities that fluctuates in price based on world events. Stability and security in the Middle East play a central role in the price of crude oil.

So when there is crisis and rampant conflict in areas close to major oil fields, the market responds. And that response is felt at gas pumps and in the wallets of people wherever they may live.

Iraq right now is a case in point.

Over the past few days the West has been taken by surprise as al Qaeda affiliated rebels have taken over cities in Iraq, some of them located in major oil region. Areas like Mosul and Kirkut have fallen to al Qaeda.

Capitalizing on the confusion of the moment, Kurds in Tikrit, Iraq have seized the opportunity to kidnap and grab Turks.

The only response available for the market is to increase the price of oil.

There is more to the story. If Western forces enter Iraq in an effort to bring stability or if Iraqi forces attempt to take back the cities - it will happen again. The price of oil and hence gasoline will increase again.

Either way, we the people lose. And just in time for summer vacations.

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Israel Retaliates in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel retaliated for rocket fire from Gaza by launching an air strike. The strike killed Mohamed Ahmed Alarur.

Alarur was the head of a network that launched rockets into Israel.
He was responsible for the attacks perpetrated on Passover night.
His objective was to terrorize Israelis as they all sat around the Passover seder table.

Since January, 140 rockets have been shot into Israel from Gaza. This week's renewal of rocket attacks forced Israel to act.

United States State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki responded to the situation by saying that "Abbas' ability to prevent attacks from the Gaza Strip is limited at this stage."

Abbas condemned the rocket attack into Israel and called on Hamas to respect the ceasefire. But the State Department spokesperson is correct - there is only so much Abbas can do.

That is why Israel launched their airstrike. Scrambling fighter jets to kill one person seems like overkill. Actually, that is the reason only one person died. Israel launched a surgical strike targeting a single person - the leader responsible for the rocket fire, namely, Mohamed Ahmed Alarur.

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Afghan Drugs Threaten Reconstruction
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Afghanistan increased its poppy, opium, heroin and morphine production this year. It is now a $3 billion industry that increased by a billion dollars since last year.

This illicit market is placing the entire reconstruction of Afghanistan in serious crisis.

The United States has given about $7 billion towards Afghani reconstruction. The money was given under the condition that the poppy trade would shut down.

John Sopko, the United States SpecialInspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, told a US House subcommittee that the drugs are helping the Taliban and creating corruption.

If drugs become their central export it will be clear that Afghanistan will move further down the road and become a narco state, a state that is funded through and revolves around drugs.

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Australia Changes View on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In an extremely rare move, a move which can only be described as bold and trailblazing, Australia announced that it will no longer refer to annexed East Jerusalem as "occupied."

While this decision was hardly covered at all in the Western press, the Palestinian and Jordanian press focused on it heavily. The Palestinians called the Australian diplomatic representative and asked for an explanation. The Jordanians called the Australian embassy and "expressed their concern."

This decision was officially made by the attorney general of Australia who told the senate of the new terminology.

Australia took the Palestinians by surprise. But it was a bigger surprise than it should have been. The Australians have, of late, been more and more aware of the issues confronting Palestinians and Israelis and more understanding of Israeli claims.

And in January, when Australia's foreign minister Julie Bishop visited Israel, she paid her respects at the grave of former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. At the time Bishop made it clear that Australia no longer calls settlements illegal and they do not refer to the West Bank as occupied. All this is, by the way, in stark contrast to current United States policy.

The changes have come about as a result of the change of government in Australia - the ousting of the Labour party and the emergence of the Liberal National coalition.

Kudos to Australia, I hope they can take the heat.

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Sisi Says No To Islamists
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Abdel Fattah al Sisi was sworn in as the new president of Egypt yesterday. Al Sisi was elected in an election that was witnessed by international observers and he is Egypt's new democratic leader.

Soon after being sworn in the new president of Egypt made it very clear that there will be no reconciliation with Islamists. Al Sisi announced that anyone who adopted violence, anyone who committed crimes will be punished and that there is no place for that behavior in Egypt.

Al Sisi has a long road ahead. One of his important jobs is to reinstitute law and order. Egyptians need to feel safe and that safety will bring the return of tourists to their country.

On another front, al Sisi will work behind closed doors with Israel to help secure the region. This cannot be made too obvious, but part of al Sisi's plan for Egypt is to reestablish it as a leader and mediator among the Arab world. That cannot happen if the relationship between Egypt and Israel is too obvious.

There is a lot riding on al Sisi. But there is no doubt that given the current situation, he is the only chance Egypt has of reemerging as a productive entity in the region.

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Abbas Says No And the World Applauds
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is a clash of leadership and Abbas is winning. Actually, winning is an understatement. Abbas is trouncing Bibi Netanyahu and the State of Israel.

In analyzing the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, one might think that Abbas would never stand a chance against Israel's great communicator. And yet, over the past few years, Abbas has played the pr game so successfully that at almost every opportunity he has garnered resounding world support for the Palestinian Authority.

Abbas has accomplished his goal by saying "no". He said "no" to every single peace talk related issue - and Israel has said "yes" every time. And with all his "no"s, Israel has failed and Abbas has emerged victorious.

The unity government is the last - and best, example.

The entire Western world leadership warned Abbas not to go ahead and form a unity government with Hamas. Abbas defied the United States and the entire Western world. And what happened? Abbas and Hamas were embraced by US Secretary of State Kerry and the rest of the Western world. And now Israel is the only power adhering to the plan and maintaining that Hamas is a terror group.

What happened? How did this happen? Abbas not only has no charisma, he has no power to deliver. He is out of sync with the masses of Palestinians and yet he has managed to wrap Western world leadership around his little finger.

Abbas says "no" and the Western world applauds.

Political correctness has gone too far.

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Syrian Elections Cement Assad's Place
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

This week there were presidential elections in Syria. The results are in.

Syrian Parliament Speaker Jihad Lahan announced the final results.
He along with the Supreme Constitutional Court of Syria said that the turnout was 73.42%. That was pretty good considering that there is a civil war waging in Syria and that many people were threatened and told to stay home and boycott the elections.

Assad received 88.7% of the vote. The other two candidates combined garnered 5.5% of the vote and the rest were disqualified ballots.

There are important issues that emerge from this vote. Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah put it best. He said that there is no doubt that Assad is the popular candidate by all standards and this election cements his position.

It is very hard to think otherwise with the kind of turnout and the kind of victory Assad received. There were only sporadic areas of the country where polls were closed down by the rebels. If you looked at international media coverage, however, you would have assumed that half the country could not or would not come out to vote.

Through this election Bashar Assad has fortified his position and made it undeniably clear to all that he is there to stay - at least for the near future.

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US Misled Israel About Unity Government
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States saw eye to eye on the question of Hamas involvement in a Palestinian unity government. There can be no doubt about that. And it was obvious that Israel would not respect or deal with a Palestinian government that included Hamas.

But while the United States agreed with Israel, that agreement is not an issue principle.

The decision by the United States to recognize a government in which Hamas plays an integral role is a major turnabout of US policy and it breaks a longstanding agreement between the US and Israel. The agreement was twofold. The US would not recognize the Hamas government and the US would not pressure Israel to, in any way, deal with the Hamas.

The United States and Israel even spoke about and confirmed for each other that the technocratic government was simply a ruse.

All that is now gone.

And the worst part is that the United States does not even realize that it did anything wrong or dangerous. The United States does not even realize that it has put in jeopardy an issue that is vital to its own security. And the United States does not realize that it is now perceived as not being there to protect Israel's security interests.

It is only a matter of time before other nations and communities take advantage of what is a very public and very large diplomatic and security gap between the United States and Israel.

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Muslims Burn Christian Shops in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Mobs burned Christian shops just outside of Luxor in Egypt the other day.

They threw gasoline on the shops and lit them aflame. It all happened just as a young Christian man, Kerolos Ghattas, was about to go on trial. Ghattas is charged with blaspheming Allah and Islam.

There are about 9 million Coptic Christians in Egypt, they make up about 10% of the population. They live in fear. Their institutions are being burnt and plundered.

Ghattas has a popular blog and he has said some very critical things about Islam.

Despite the new elections and al Sisi winning nearly 97% of the vote, very little will change vis a vis the Christians of Egypt. They will continue on as they have been, an unprotected minority in a very hostile environment.

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The Rolling Stones in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Rolling Stones arrived in Israel on Monday night and tonight, Wednesday night, they are performing in Yarkon Park in Tel Aviv.

This is a huge event for Israel. It is the first time the Stones have performed there.

The legendary group opened their tour in Oslo and from there went on to Lisbon, then Zurich and now Tel Aviv. It is all part of their On Fire 14 European tour. The Band arrived on their own Rolling Stones airplane adorned with a huge set of lips and a tongue that sticks out.

The event will start at 9:15pm even though it was scheduled for 8:45. This will give people time after the Holiday of Shavuot, Pentecost, to attend the once in a lifetime event.

The Rolling Stones concert will last for two hours. Under normal circumstances the park closes at 11pm, but for this extraordinary event, an exception will be made.

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DC Accepts Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The PA/Hamas unity government was sworn in yesterday. And almost immediately afterward, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki recognized the new government.

I am told that the Israeli cabinet and diplomats were caught off guard.

The United States might have rushed to embrace the new Palestinian government, but there will be serious blowback in DC - especially from powers on the hill.

Why was Israel surprised?

Months ago I predicted that if the agreement went through, the United States would accept it. And by Saturday it was clear that the new Palestinian prime minister was already officially invited to Washington to meet with Obama in the White House.

Israel has always had a misapprehension of the White House's desires and priorities. To think that the administration would not back a unity government was a big misjudgment. And to think that embracing a Palestinian unity government is an attack against Israel is even a bigger mistake.

The White House is wrong. It is illegal in the United States to recognize Hamas. But to think that they would not have done so was sheer folly.

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Elections In Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It sounds outrageous, but on Tuesday Syria will go to the polls to elect a president. That's right - the Syrians have been embroiled in a civil war since March 2011 and now is the time they have chosen to vote for a president?

It is part of the deal that all sides, including the United States and other Western nations and the warring parties in Syria, agreed upon. They wanted the people to have a say, they wanted them to vote. Of course, at the time, the brilliant minds that compose the international community could never have foreseen that Assad would be a sure bet for a landslide victory.

When Syrians go to the polls there will be three candidates to choose from. When the process started, there were twenty-four viable candidates including two women and a Christian. Now Assad is the main candidate and the other two other names on the ballot, Hassan Abdullah al Nouri and Maher Abdul Hafiz Hajjar, are simply tokens or symbolic candidates.

This is the first time that a presidential election in Syria will not be simply a referendum. In the past there were no other options.
Then, in the early part of 2014, the Syrian parliament passed a law to create a real, multi-candidate election program. Even though all three names are on the ballot, there is little to no doubt about who the winner will be, despite the fact that the police and the army are prohibited from voting.

Western leaders thought this election would pressure Assad. In the end, it empowers Assad.

The entire idea of having elections to solve a problem in the Middle East in the middle of a civil war is irresponsible thinking on the part of those trying to build stability. Did they really hope to oust Assad? Really now, how could they even in their wildest, most hopeful, imagination expect that outcome?

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Abbas/Hamas Unity Causes Conflict W Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas has announced that the PA will declare their unity with Hamas on Monday. In response, Israel has said that they will boycott the new government. The boycott will include withholding import taxes that Israel collects for the PA at Israeli ports.

The Palestinians are now threatening Israel. Look at Abbas comments from Sunday when he met with French pro-Palestinian leaders:

"The announcement of the government will be on Monday."

"The Israelis informed us today that they are going to boycott us immediately after we form the government."

"They are going to withhold our money."

"This is our money, not aid from Israel, and we will not stay silent. They want to punish us because we have an agreement with Hamas, which is part of our people."

"We say (the government) is going to recognize Israel, denounce violence and recognize the international agreements."

"This is a technocrat government. It has nothing to do with Fatah, Hamas or any factions."

Abbas also said that "we are going to react to any Israeli action."

This scenario has been played out before. In the end, after a few weeks, Israel will free the Palestinians taxes and transfer the money just as they have always done. Israel is showing its displeasure and is using the withholding of taxes as a strangle move. It is a gesture of strength.

After their recent successes with the Pope and UN agencies, Abbas and Hamas feel emboldened enough to make their next move. Israel's move is only temporary. The Palestinian move will probably be more long term.

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White House Embraces Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the United States, specifically the White House, has officially embraced the Hamas / Palestinian Authority Unity Government. This is a major turnaround. And it is a serious violation of US law.

The Israeli daily Maariv reported on and then quoted the high level Palestinian official and head of the Fatah reconciliation team, Azam Al Ahmad, saying that since the unity agreement the new Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah has been invited to the White House for an official visit. "The visit will take place in June, during which Hamdallah will meet with the American president and visit the US Congress."

Azam Ahmad also said that "The US administration has renounced its previous disapproval of the national unity government and will now support the new government."

This is truly earth shattering. It will require some very fancy footwork on the part of Washington diplomats and whoever else wants to recognize the new Palestinian government.

According to US law, a law which was passed by Congress, Hamas may not receive support or US money. As a result of the unity government, any aid and/or any money that goes to the PA cannot be separated from Hamas - and so it is impossible to recognize the newly formed unity government.

Even the presidential waiver cannot apply here. It is a clear and absolute rule. Congress passed this law expecting this specific scenario.

There is no way around this law. The only answer would be to change the law.

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Iran Hacks the West
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A cyber intel firm from Dallas, Texas called iSIGHT Partners just dropped a huge bomb.

They have shown that, over the past few years, Iran has successfully hacked into leaders around the world - including a four-star United States general, leaders from Arab countries, from England and even from Israel.

The hack was slow and very methodical. They created fictitious Facebook, twitter, Linkedin and other accounts and they created imaginary people. They befriended friends and made their way slowly to their targets. They probably targeted 2,000 people in order to get to the several dozen people they really wanted to hack.

They created a media outlet called NewsOnAir.org. All the journalists posting on the site had false identities.

Once the hackers found their targets they planted spyware and other software. This would enable the hackers to follow and to get passwords and access to highly secure sites. They invested huge amounts of time to cultivate contacts and then to get introduced to their targets.

This hack was wildly successful.

There is no way of knowing how much material was compromised and who was compromised when. iSIGHT has said that the operation has been going on since 2011.

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Conflict Over Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem Day marks the liberation of Jerusalem, it marks the reunification of the city in the 1967, Six Day War.

It is a great day of celebration for Jews around the world - especially in Israel and even more so in Jerusalem. When Israeli
Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to mark the day he repeated the often declared statement that Jerusalem is the eternal, undivided, capital of Israel.

That Jerusalem is the eternal, undivided, capital of Israel is a near absolute point of unity and agreement in Israel. And yet, the Palestinians responded to the Netanyahu speech by reminding him that East Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine.

This small exchange illustrates some of the enormous tension and explains in part the gargantuan rift that exists between both Palestinians and Israelis.

There are ways to bridge the gap regarding Jerusalem. The division is predominately an issue of rhetoric. But in order for there to be any change in the stagnant status quo there needs to be a real desire to find a solution - even about terms.

At this moment I am not very hopeful.

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Extra Day for Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt's two day election was extended for a third day. The Presidential Election Commission announced that the ballots would remain open for a third day due to low turnout.

The low turnout should have been predicted.

The reasons are obvious:

# 1: The outcome is clear, so why should people come out to vote.

# 2: People are politically burned out. They have had enough of presidential politics. They want to move on.

# 3: The heat has been blistering.

# 4: There have been, not unexpectedly, boycotts by groups that do not recognize the elections.

In order to secure a better turnout on the third day, one member of the Commission considered applying an old law still on the books. If implemented, Egyptians that do not vote would be fined 50 Egyptian Pounds. That is about $79 US.

Democracy is new to Egypt. Most new democracies are excited about the voting process. Al Sisi and his advisers believe that when more people vote, he will be given a larger and clearer mandate to govern. He is wrong.

Unfortunately, as democracy matures fewer people vote. All that is required is that there be a legal, fair and honest election.

Egypt will soon learn an important lesson about democracy. Most people really do not care. Those who do care are those who come out to vote.

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Elections Shake Up EU
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The BBC called it an "earthquake that rocks EU elections." They were referring to the Euroskeptics who grabbed power by the handful in the elections that concluded over the weekend.

The Euoskeptics want to disband the EU and they are now a formidable contingent in the EU parliament.

Center parties lost serious ground to the rightists. The voting public is responding to the changes in European societies. They are hoping that the rightists will stem the influx of Muslims into Europe. They are xenophobic.

The right is also filled with anti-Semitism.

To get some sense of the numbers:
In France, the National Front garnered 25% of the votes. French President Hollande's Socialist Party came in third place with only 14% of the votes.

In Greece, the Golden Dawn which is similar to the National Front, received 10% of the ballots.

In England, the Euroskeptics won with 27% while the Conservatives only got 24% and the Labour Party received 25% of the vote.

The European Jewish community is deeply concerned about these changes in the EU Parliament.

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Iran Executes Billionaire
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran executed a billionaire for perpetrating a $2.6 billion fraud.
Mahafarid Amir Khosravi, also known as Amir Mansour Aria, was hung in prison in a secret execution. Even his lawyer was not informed that the execution was to take place.

Khosravi was involved in the biggest bank scam in the history of the Islamic Republic. Thirty nine people were convicted. Four were executed, two were given life sentences and the rest were given twenty-five years.

Considering how controlled the Iranian economy is, the case raises questions as to how it was possible to perpetrate such a huge fraud and over so long a period of time.

The fraud began in 2007 with forged documents that enabled bank loans. The loans were used to purchase thirty-five companies. The state owned steel company was bought. A mineral water company was bought. A soccer team and a meat importing company were bought. In such a highly controlled economy, it is highly likely that there were also government payoffs.

The banks played a huge role in the fraud and many of the players were former banks executives. Some of those involved were able to escape Iran. One character escaped to Canada. I expect that, over the next few weeks, he will spill the beans about the government involvement in this colossal fraud.

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Pope's Visits Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope's trip to the Middle East is extremely important. Although it is a short visit and there were times when the trip itself was in doubt, the Pope's appearance in the region serves an important vehicle in helping to bridge differences.

The three day trip began on Saturday and ends on Monday.

Obviously, all sides will do their best to put their best foot forward when entertaining the Pope. By definition, that means explaining your case and explaining why the peace process is at a standstill.

The blame game will be played. The Palestinians and the Israelis will blame one another. What the sides do not understand is that Pope Francis is not about blame. This Pope is all about solutions to injustice.

The Pope will listen, but he will not judge. He wants the parties, Israelis and Palestinians, to sit together, begin to resolve their issues and stop all the injustice.

During the visit Pope Francis will visit most of the requisite places and offer the required masses and deliver the expected speeches and meet with the appropriate people. He is hoping that his very presence will help, that his dialogue and discussion with the parties will enable them to move closer to the table and an agreement.

Pope Francis is an optimist. I hope his optimism is infectious.

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Ukraine Election on Sunday
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

This Sunday is Election Day in Ukraine. There are still tensions and even skirmishes in Eastern Ukraine.

On Friday Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will respect and recognize whoever is elected. And then he added that he hoped the new government would stop the military action against ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.

21 candidates are running in this election. It is taking place throughout Ukraine, including eastern Ukraine. The voting is supposed to take place in areas that just had elections. All the areas that had elections voted to create independent regions from Ukraine - and yet, the central government in Kiev wants everyone to vote on Sunday.

The exception is Crimea. They will not participate in these elections. They were officially annexed by Russia.

Election rules in Ukraine require that the winner must gain over 50% of the vote. In the event that it does not happen, there will be a runoff of the top candidates.

Expect a run-off.

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Golan is in Flux
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Golan Heights have been hot these past weeks. It all relates back to Syria.

On the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, al Qaeda and al Qaeda affiliated groups have made progress in capturing important towns, crossroads and vantage points. They are now positioned just yards from the Israeli border.

I expect that Bashar Assad will make a major play to redeem the Golan from the rebels. The reason Assad needs to take back the Golan is clear. Damascus is just 40 miles away. If the rebels control this southern flank they have easy accesses to Assad's center of power.
At the other end of the country, in the north, the battles are far away from Assad as he sits in Damascus.

Saudi Arabia had been supporting the rebels, but they have now stopped supporting those rebel forces connected to al Qaeda out of fear that the extremist Islamic approach will not work. So now the Saudis are supporting only sub groups of rebels who are, or will eventually, fight al Qaeda.

On the Israeli side Druze residents of the Golan Heights have made an appeal to the UN to permit them to vote in the June 2nd election in Syria. Almost every single Druze person I have heard says they will vote for Assad. They want to cross over and vote or get the ballots brought across the border and into Israel by the United Nations.

Druze families straddle the border. Some are in Syria and some in Israel. Some Israeli Druze even attend university in Syria. For decades people have crossed back and forth over the border under the supervision of the UN. In the fall Israeli Druze farmers bring their entire apple crop over the border into Syria for sale in Damascus.

Since this eruption in the Golan Heights, courtesy of al Qaeda, Israel has closed the UN border crossing into Syria.

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Racism in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Outlawing racism is difficult to do. It requires crossing over into the sacred realm of free speech.

Switzerland, like most western European countries, has laws against racism and against Nazism. Now the Swiss Federal Tribunal, the highest court in the land, has issued a ruling on the question of racism. It is the Swiss attempt at severing the Gordian Knot.

The title of the decision is "The Hitler Salute in Public is Not Always Punishable." The court wrote that using the salute depends on the intention and so it is not blankly forbidden. It all has to do with the intent of the person performing the salute.

According to the ruling, it is forbidden only if the intention was to spread racism. It is permitted if the salute was simply conveying the personal ideas of the person saluting.

This creates a very difficult standard to prove.

Once this new legal standard is firmly in place it will be almost impossible to prosecute anyone ever again on the charge of racism in Switzerland.

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Al Sisi Speaks About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

An extensive taped interview with al Sisi, the shoe-in for president of Egypt in the election scheduled for May 26 &27, was broadcast on three Egyptian satellite stations the other day.

Al Sisi explained his point of view on the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel. He went into detail about the role of Egyptian forces in the Sinai. According to the Camp David Peace Accords, Egypt may not have a military presence in the Sinai Desert. But because of widespread terror networks now operating in the Sinai, Israel and Egypt have agreed that the Egyptian military should operate there.

Al Sisi explained that the informal change to the Accords is in everyone's best interest. It is clearly in the best interests of both Egypt and Israel to stem the terror there. Al Sisi then went on the say that if they need to implement an official change to the treaty that is what they will do.

Actually, there is no need to officially amend the treaty. Both sides agree and both sides are communicating well and sharing information.

Al Sisi is correct. It is in their mutual self interest to cooperate and fight terror in the Sinai.

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Every Must Know Abu Khattala
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone in the Western world should know the name Ahmed Abu Khattala. It is a name that should be as well known as that of Osama bin Laden or of his successor Ayman Zawahiri.

Abu Khattala was the leader of the attack in Benghazi that murdered four US State Department employees including the Ambassador.

The White House has applied a full court press to find Abu Khattala.
He has so far successfully eluded them. He very recently, literally, slipped through the fingers of the United States and foiled a plan to assassinate him. Abu Khattala was tipped off in advance of the plan.
Quite obviously, capturing this terrorist is an important goal of the White House. The killing of Abu Khattala would be a very significant feather in the cap of President Obama. It is also an extremely important US policy objective.

The United States and the West should not be targeting terrorists for revenge --- but for justice. They must pursue terrorists to show that the US can and will eventually find and punish the people responsible for these heinous acts. The reason it is even more important that Abu Khattala be caught - and caught quickly, is because he is still actively plotting attacks against the United States.

It is not just about the past, it is also about preventing future terror attacks.

Remember the name Ahmed Abu Khattala. Remember what he did.

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Syrians Fight to Take Back Golan from Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian army has launched an offensive to retake the Syrian Golan Heights.

Last week al Qaeda affiliates successfully moved into the major villages on the Syrian Golan. This was a redo of exactly the events of last June. The Golan has critical importance and is essential in terms of keeping the border with Israel and Jordan secure.

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Abdel Rahman described the Syrian assault:

"The army's counter-offensive, against rebels and the (jihadist) Al-Nusra Front, has been extremely fierce. On Friday the army fired 100 rockets and carried out 15 air strikes. On Saturday, the air raids and shelling have been continuous, and the army also fired a surface-to-surface missile against Sahem village."

There is no doubt that many more Syrian foot soldiers will be brought to the region to mop up the operation.

Last year, Syria used Hezbollah as the fighting force to oust al Qaeda.

Keeping the Golan quiet is critical so as to make certain that the Syrian conflict does not cross over into Israel or drag Israel into retaliation strikes.

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Pope's Trip to The Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope's trip to the Middle East will take place in just a few days, from May 24 through May 26. This trip will be both fast paced and full of political turf issues.

Accompanying the Pope will be two of his colleagues from Argentina. A Muslim leader, Omar Aboud, head of the Institute for Religious
Dialogue will join the Pope's entourage as will Rabbi Abraham Skorka, chief rabbi of Argentina and a co-author with the Pope. The two are officially part of the delegation from Rome. Rabbi Skorka will join the trip on the second day because of the Jewish Sabbath, Omar Aboud will be there the entire trip.

The trip begins with a half day in Jordan where the major focus will be a visit to the Jordan River and the traditional site of the baptism. The delegation then helicopters to Bethlehem to visit the traditional birth site of Jesus. Also on the Bethlehem itinerary is a visit to Dheisheh, a UN refugee camp established after Israel was created in 1949 for 3400 Palestinians.

Here's where a logistical complications set in. Bethlehem is only a one minute drive to Jerusalem city limits and about ten minutes from there to the Prime Minister's residence, the Knesset and Yad Veshem.
And yet, official protocol requires heads of state to land at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport be taken directly to the Holocaust memorial, Yad Vashem.

So the Pope must get back into his helicopter and fly to Tel Aviv just in order to come back to Jerusalem.

In Jerusalem he will ascend the Temple Mount, or Haram al Sharif, where he will meet the Grand Mufti. At the Church of the Holy Sepulcher Pope Francis will meet Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, the leader of the world's Orthodox Christians. The site is the traditional site of Jesus' burial.

Along the route representatives of many other churches will also be presenting the Pope with gifts, including the leader of Lebanon's Maronite Catholic Church, which is Lebanon's largest Christian community.

Although tensions are very high the Pope has refused his bullet proof vehicles. He will travel in a simple Ford. Pope Francis wants to remain as close to his flock as possible.

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US Buying Kurdish Oil
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States are importing crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan. This might just turn into a huge diplomatic time bomb.

According to Iraqi law, all oil must be sold through Bagdad. But more and more clients are going to the Kurds and getting oil from them. The oil is piped across the border to the Turkish port of Dortyol and uploaded onto tankers that then make their way to their destinations.

According to ship tracking companies who track the whereabouts of tankers, the first ship left for the United States two weeks ago.
Since January four ships filled with Kurdish oil have gone from Turkey to Israel. Add on another two ships that arrived in Israel
last summer.

The Iraqis are livid and are threatening all kinds of reprisal, including law suits.

But the United States has, finally, figured out that those in control of oil in Iraq are not their friends. The Russians and the Iraqis are ultimately in control of the oil production.

And it became clear to the US, like it became clear to Israel and several other countries, that good prices and reliable timetables for delivery were something they could count on from the Independent Kurdish Region in Iraq.

When it comes to energy, reliability trumps everything but price.

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Clinton - No Deal Better than Bad Deal w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Hillary Clinton addressed a policy conference of the AJC (American Jewish Committee) in Washington, DC. It is clear from her presentation that Mrs. Clinton is setting her sights on the White House.

On the subject of the Iranian discussions and the issue of their becoming a nuclear power Clinton echoed an important point made by many world leaders. Her comment may not have been original, but it was certainly presidential.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" she said. Even Israeli Prime
Minister Netanyahu has used exactly those same words.

The basic premise is that Iran will certainly take advantage of the deal. And that means that the parties have to be "tough" and "clear eyed" regarding Iran and the deal. It is not simply good enough to assume that when a document is signed within the assigned deadline that everything will be fine.

Actually, quite the opposite!

The agreement must allow for protections and policing and solutions to the inevitable violations. It must work for both sides. And it must put at ease the skeptics who think that Iran is simply playing the West and specifically the country many are claiming Mrs. Clinton hopes to govern.

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Israelis To Nigeria to Help Find Girls
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is sending a team of experts to Nigeria to help search for the kidnapped schoolgirls. The Israeli team will be composed of intelligence people, hostage negotiators and tactical experts.

The role the Israeli team plays in Nigeria will be to help piece together information as it comes in order to figure out where the girls are being held and how to free them. It is an area in which Israel has vast experience.

Israel has, unfortunately, been confronted with similar hostage situations many times before. Most often, they have handled the situations without fanfare or any public knowledge. Last year, for example, Israel advised Kenya after hostages were taken by terrorists in a mall. It is said that in Columbia it was the Israelis who helped find and free Ingrid Betancourt, a presidential candidate who had been kidnapped and held prisoner for six years by FARC.

The Israelis will probably use drones and satellite images in addition to human intel in order to start piecing together a set of possible hiding places. They will comb through numerous telephone and other communications that have been accumulated for them.

Then they can create a plan.
We wish them all much success.

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Al Qaeda Battling in Syrian Golan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda is once again making a play to capture the Syrian Golan Heights.

Over the past few days al Qaeda has successfully kicked Syrian forces out of the strategically located towns of Quneiytra and Qunaytira.
They have captured the hill of Tel al Ahmar which controls the road in that area and connects these significant towns.

Most importantly, al Qaeda has captured towns that sit right on the border with Israel.

As I watched the fighting I saw how al Qaeda rebels literally took up position at the Israeli border fence. But they were not shooting into Israel. They were shooting at Syrian forces on their side of the border parallel to the fence.

For obvious reasons Israel is on high alert at that border right now. The UN crossing between Syria and Israel at Quneiytra has been closed for fear that al Qaeda will take advantage of the passageway.

I watched the battle on a video posted by the al Qaeda affiliate called Jumat Beit Al Maqdas al Islami which, in translation, means the Organization for the Islamic Temple. They say that they were assisted in the battle by Araya al-Jihad, the Jihad Squad, and by Harchat Mujahedeen a-Shaham Syrian, the Jihad Worriers Movement.

Many of the rebel fighters wore black al Qaeda flags when fighting.

All of the rebel soldiers shouted Allah is Great before they rushed forward and started shooting at the Syrians.

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Kevin Spacey For Pres in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

House of Cards, the original series from Netflix that stars Kevin Spacey is very popular in the Arabic world, especially in Egypt.

Because of the upcoming presidential election in Egypt, scheduled to take place on May 26 & 27, Egyptian social media is ablaze with messages and puns about the show and the election. The show, for those who do not watch, is about a congressman who is campaigning for president.

Social media in Egypt playing aword play and having fun. Al Sisi who is considered to be a shoe-in for the post. Al Sisi is responsible for the ouster of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood and has been the leader and defense minister since the ousting. And his name Al Sisi sounds like Spacey.

The postings show a campaign picture of the Spacey character with arms crossed and the words "al Spacey for President" and "Long live Egypt." One of the most popular Egyptian twitter #hashtags is "Al-Spacey instead of Al-Sisi."

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Shot Jewish Ukrainian Mayor Gives Interview
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Two weeks after being shot, he Jewish mayor of Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, gave an interview from his hospital bed in Haifa where he was brought for treatment and recuperation.

Gennady Kernes was shot in the back while on his daily early morning run. After the unsuccessful assassination attempt, Kernes was rushed into surgery. Following the surgery he was taken to the airport and flown to Israel where he was brought to a private hospital in Haifa.

Kernes is recovering well and is able to sit up in bed and is even beginning to eat on his own.

He has no idea of who tried to murder him.

Kernes was a supporter of the pro-Russia regime of Viktor Yanukovych, the previous President who fled to Russia. But he said "I'm in favor of Kharkiv remaining part of Ukraine and therefore in favor of seeing her flourish."

He expects to return to his country and to resume his position soon.

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Rice Comes to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

US National Security Adviser Susan Rice is visiting Israel. Rice and her team are meeting with the highest level of Israeli leaders.
Washington today is like a revolving door. Out goes Kerry and in comes Rice.

The White House issued a statement about the meetings saying: "The delegations held thorough consultations on all aspects of the challenge posed by Iran, and pledged to continue the unprecedented coordination between the United States and Israel."

National security adviser is one, of if not the, most influential adviser to the US president.

The talks with Rice focused on Iran. Bu the quote did not do service to the security adviser's real agenda. The purpose of this trip is to try rein in Israel on the Iranian issue. The objective was to put the brakes on any potential Israeli strike on Iran.

The results are not quite clear.

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New Israeli Super Radar
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

For those who do not know, today, most of our defense is in the hands of techno geeks. There are more and more techo soldiers and fewer and fewer hard core fighters.

And the technology is more and more impressive every day.

Israel just announced that a new radar system called MF-STAR will be operational in the next few days. This radar, which will be outfitted on Israeli naval ships, is exponentially better than any other radar anywhere in the world.

MF-STAR can monitor multiple targets and it be able to determine threats from friends even when ships are travelling together in a bunch. It has a range of thousands of miles and can lock onto missiles at any altitude at sea, on land and in the air.

Up until now one of the biggest threats facing Israel has been a very low flying missile called the Yakont (which is actually the Russian made S-800 missile) that has already, successfully, hit Israeli targets by slipping under their defense shield. Amongst its other, many, attributes MF-STAR will prevent this from happening again.

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Saudi Court Convict Blogger-1000 Lashes & 10 years
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A Saudi appeals court sentenced a blogger named Raif Badawi to 10 years in prison and 1000 lashes and ordered him to pay 1 million Saudi riyads. (about $80,000).

The appeals court overruled a lower court that had sentence the blogger to 3 years and 600 lashes.

The blogger was the founder and manager of a web chat room that discussed Islam. He was found guilty of cyber crimes and defaming the Prophet. One Muslim leader said "These are red lines that nobody should cross."

1000 lashes is a near death sentence.

But considering the maximum penalty, there is at least a small chance that Badawi will survive. The maximum and usual penalty for such crimes is death. Considering the crimes, the response of many people in the Middle East was surprise over such a light sentence.

Given the bizarre nature of this situation, I suppose one has to find something to be happy about.

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Hamas will Destroy the PA & Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 7, 2014

I'm Predicting:

The unity agreement between Hamas and the PA is beginning to take shape.

Six Fatah security officers who had been taken prisoner in Gaza were released. There are dozens more still in prison and there is no word on their status.

As I observe both organizations and analyze their current situation it seems clear that the more powerful party is indeed Hamas and Hamas will cause the downfall of Abbas and Fatah. If there is an election, and if Hamas assumes any role, they will use it to destroy the PA.

As soon as Hamas is permitted in the West Bank as part of the PA, they will cannibalize the Fatah and the Palestinian Authority.

Until now Hamas operations in Abbas territory on the West Bank have been severely curtailed and are even illegal. But now, under cover of a unity agreement, these activities will be totally permitted. West Bank youth are flocking to Hamas.

Israel has until now been involved in helping protect Abbas, his government and his power base. Post unity agreement, Israel is pulling back.

One of the objectives of Hamas will be to topple Abbas. I predict it will take two months form the time Hamas and Fatah begin governing jointly for Abbas to fall.

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Happy Birthday Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Happy Birthday Israel!!!

It is nothing short of a miracle. 66 years ago my parents and grandparents could never have imagined that Israel would today be the great state that it is.

Today the number of Israeli citizens totals 8.18 million citizens. The number of Jewish citizens living in Israel today is 6.13 million.

In 1948 there were 800,000 inhabitants of which 600,000 were Jews.
The increase has been 10 fold. Today Israel has the largest Jewish community in the world.

The State of Israel was born into war and came out of the ashes. Today Israel is a leader among nations.

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Iran & China Boost Friendship
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and China are creating better and better relations, especially in terms of defense.

The Iranian defense minister is visiting Beijing and has met with his Chinese counterpart. During their joint press conference it was announced that they will continue to further their bilateral relations. The Chinese defense minister said the relationship "remained positive and steady, featuring frequent high-level exchanges and deepened political mutual trust."

And according to the Chinese news agency Xinhau, the Chinese minister also said that China is "confident that the friendly relations between the two countries as well as the armed forces will be reinforced" due to "increased mutual visits and personnel training cooperation between the armed forces."

In addition, Iran has announced that they will be tripling their trade diplomats in Europe increasing their number from 11 to 30.
They will send trade envoys to Spain, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Serbia.

This points to a huge desire by Iran to boost their trade with Europe and to expand their business investments.

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Iran Bans WhatsApp
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Rouhani just banned WhatsApp. He announced the ban on Saturday. Just as a reminder, Rouhani is the liberal more open leader of Iran.

The reason Rouhani gave for banning WhatsApp is because it was bought for $19 billion "by the Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, who is an American Zionist."

I know that it sounds crazy. Iranians are very active on social media. The government is trying very hard to control the activity and make certain that they can monitor it. On the one hand applications like WhatsApp and Facebook and twitter are very problematic for them. On the other hand, Iranian leadership uses these systems to try to influence the outside world.

It has been an ongoing battle. Iranian leadership has blocked Google. But most young Iranians know how to get around the block. So then the government blocks that hole and young people device a new way.

Youth uses their computer as a way of communicating. Of course they also use computer websites to plot revolutions and to learn and teach about freedom and democracy. That is what Iranian leadership fears most.

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Rebels Cut Route of Chem Weapons in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Assad Syrian rebels have cut the road and are preventing the evacuation of chemical weapons in Damascus.

The conflict is preventing the international community from loading and moving the last set of the 13000 tons of weapons. Rebels are trying to attack the eastern area of Damascus. That is where Domair Airbase is located. When you follow the road going east for another 25 miles you hit Sayqal Airbase which is where the last vestige of chemical weapons was stored.

The final deadline for the removal of this last batch of chemical weapons was not met. The deadline was April 27. Assad and his forces cannot be blamed. It is now clear why the deadline was missed. Once the weapons are put on trucks and moved, they can easily be hijacked.

The rebels want those weapons and they are advancing in their efforts to grab them. If the rebels do get them, no one knows what they will do with them.

Some say that the rebels do not have the capabilities needed to weaponize the ingredients. If that is true the rebel pirates would then move the weapons on - giving or selling them to another source. Others have asserted that these rebels do indeed have the knowhow and that they have even already used chemical weapons.

It is not exactly clear what the specific motivation of the rebel forces is beyond trying to free the eastern side of Damascus from the grasp of Assad.

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Military Parades in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I watch military parades in the Middle East very carefully.
Countries are always displaying their weapons. I want to see those weapons and figure out if anything is new and what they might be used for.

Of course, sometimes a country tries to fake their weaponry asserting that they have one type when in actuality what they really have is a similar but downgraded weapon. But that is part of the game.

Saudi Arabia recently displayed a slew of Dongfeng 3 missiles. They already have a few of the newer and more sophisticated Dongfeng 21.
Dongfeng, by the way, means east wind. The Dongfeng 3 has a range of 3,000 miles and can carry a nuclear warhead. That makes them older but very potent and worth watching.

Israel is only partially concerned about the acquisition of these new old missiles from China. Israel knows that they share an enemy with the Saudis and, in all likelihood, these missile were purchased with Iran in mind as a target.

So Israel sleeps a little more easily knowing that these newly acquired Dongfeng missiles will be aimed in the right direction - at a common foe.

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E Ukraine to Vote May 11
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A referendum in the Oblast (region) of Donetsk in Eastern Ukraine has been scheduled for May 11th.

The wording of the referendum is somewhat ambiguous. There is no mention of either Ukraine or Russia. There is only one question. It is a yes or a no vote.

Here is the question:
"Do you support the creation of the Donetsk People's Republic?"

Donetsk is the third most populated city in Ukraine. It is filled with factories and is the most industrial region in the entire country.

But according to the law of the Donetsk region, a referendum requires that all the citizens be officially invited to vote 1 week before. That means that by Monday all invitations must be issued.

That might prove problematic. Today is May Day. It is a national holiday and the entire region will celebrate with a long weekend before the Monday deadline. It is doubtful the invites will get out in time.

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What Hamas Says About Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leader Mohammed Al Zahar told Reuters that Abbas is not telling the truth about Hamas and their recognition of Israel. Al Zahar said it is simply not true.

In an extensive interview with the news service the Hamas leader was very forthright and very clearly explained Abbas' motives.

Al Zahar said that Abbas is "very weak" and that "he is seeking a guarantee that US financial support will continue."

He continued by saying that the idea that the government would be composed of academics and technocrats was also a big Abbas lie cultivated in order to assure Western powers of something that will not happen.

"Abbas is not telling them the truth. He says 'this is my government'. But it is not his government. It is a government of national unity. He is marketing it in this way to minimize the pressure."

It seems that Hamas understands the ways the motives and the manipulations of Abbas. It also seems that the United States and the West do not understand either Abbas or his tactics.

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China Cancels Big Bang Theory
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We have known for a long time that China wants to control the internet within their borders.

The reasoning goes like this: If you can control the flow of information you can control the truth and limit access to resources and alternative views. You can prevent real communication and organization. And you can control the culture that people are exposed to.

The internet represents freedom. And China is flexing its muscles.

Chinese youth watch TV through the internet and the most popular shows on Chinese television are US shows. The shows are viewed on sites like Shohu TV, Youku and iQiyi. Yesterday China yanked several US shows off the internet. The government forced them to pull, The Big Bang Theory, The Good Wife, NCIS and The Practice.

One can probably find an ideological reason for pulling the shows - except for The Big Bang Theory. It is a harmless comedy about socially awkward academics guys who share an apartment. Why yank
The Big Bang Theory?

My only answer is the great success and popularity of the show. So far the series has been viewed 1.3 billion times in China. Do the calculation - almost one view for every person in China. And that means the people are not watching the tepid boring communist shows.

The Big Bang was cut because too many people were watching it. And now Chinese viewers are up in arms and have taken to the internet to plead their case.

We shall see what happens.

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Presidential Election in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 28 , 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A presidential election in Egypt is scheduled for May 26 & 27. The most serious candidate running for office is al Sisi, the force behind the ousting of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood last July.

Since the ousting Egypt, has been run by an interim government and has been setting the stage for new elections ten months later.

The Muslim Brotherhood has called on their supporters to boycott the elections. We are told that from his prison cell, ousted president Morsi is saying that the elections are illegal and that people must boycott them.

On Sunday al Sisi explained to the country how important these elections are and he called on all Egyptians to unite and come out and vote in "unprecedented numbers for the sake of Egypt."

There is no doubt that al Sisi will win the May election. The question is whether he can unite Egypt and guide his country back into a position of power and productivity.

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The Real Situation
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The response to the breakdown of peace talks between the PA and the Israelis has been telling. But when it comes to the Middle East, you do not take anything at face value.

The sanctions that Israel has imposed will soon be lifted.
Palestinian tax money that has been collected at Israeli ports and withheld by Israel will soon make its way to Palestinian national accounts. And the goods that normally cross into the PA and Gaza will continue again as they did. It may take a week or a few days longer, but it will happen.

The international community will insist on it and Israel knows that they must deliver it. It was a gesture. And Israel will not withhold electricity or power even if they do not receive payment because of a Palestinian cash shortage.

The Palestinian Authority has run headlong into the embrace of Hamas and in so doing they have insulted Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and almost every other Arab country except Qatar. All these countries have isolated Hamas because of links to the Muslim Brotherhood. The
Brotherhood has sworn to overthrow each of them and Hamas represents the Brotherhood.

The PA cannot live in that situation. They gain almost nothing from association with Hamas. Besides, they will agree on almost nothing. They will never be able to share power and authority.

Hamas thinks that this agreement will enable them access to PA money. But money from abroad will not flow (except from Qatar and the taxes that Israel will soon return) as long as there is a union between them.

All around, this is a very bad decision and it will be self-corrected very shortly. Then the real problem re-emerges.
The stalemate between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas is malignant and it will remain the status quo.

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Obama Lemonade
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

As the folksy expression goes, when you have lemons make lemonade. And President Barack Obama has just made himself a big tall glass.

The Israelis and the Palestinians are frustrated. A huge chasm divides them. Peace talks have broken down. And US President Obama is quoted as saying that "there may come a point at which there just needs to be a pause and both sides need to look at the alternatives."

Duh!

In other words, the Israelis and the Palestinians need time away from one another in order to see how good the peace deal really is. And that separation is actually a good thing and a part of the plan.

Hearing his speak, one would think that the United States actually thought it was a good idea for the talks to break down so that when they get back together, the parties will see how valuable and important the resolution is to them and to each other.

Despite the cool and refreshing illusion that lemonade conjures, the reality is that the drink itself is extremely tart, acidic and difficult to swallow.

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Anti-Semitism: Russia vs Ukraine
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I cannot determine with 100% certainty those responsible for the new wave of anti-Semitism spreading through Ukraine and Crimea. But my sense is that both Russians and Ukrainians are responsible, each in the own way, for variant forms of the despicable racism.

The first major act of anti-Semitism took place in Donetsk, a province in Ukraine, on the eve of Passover when leaflets were passed out asking Jews over 16 years of age to register at their local offices and to register their property and cars, as well. The fee for this mandatory registration was $50.

The following Friday night, in the southern Ukrainian city of Nikolayev, two fire bombs were thrown at the main synagogue. The firebombing took place on the Sabbath eve of Passover.

This past Tuesday, in Crimea, in the city of Sevastopol, the Holocaust memorial was vandalized with a huge red sickle. The memorial is relatively new, having been erected in 2003.

In Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine's 4th largest city with a population of over one million, the grave site of Dov Ber Schneerson, the brother of Menachem, the previous Grand Rabbi of Lubavitch, Chabad was covered with graffiti swastikas.

And this past winter two synagogues were fire bombed and a Jewish person was stabbed in Kiev.

Anti-Semitic violence will only increase in both Ukraine and Crimea as long as stability and order elude those countries.

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Hamas- PA Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and the Palestinian Authority signed an agreement yesterday.
The overall winner is Hamas. They get almost everything. Abbas and the PA get to rub the faces of the United States and Israel in the mud.

The reality is that all the conditions as agreed upon in this current agreement were already signed onto in two previous agreements - one in Doha and the other in Cairo. The only difference is the timetable.

There are very few details about any sharing of power in any of the three agreements.

So why did Hamas once again agree to this? The real problem for Hamas is that Gaza needs money. They have been bled dry. There is an almost total barricade of funds entering Gaza. Most Arab countries, with only one exception, have long ago withdrawn their support of Hamas. Even Iran, the lone holdout, no longer supports Hamas in Gaza because they are on opposite sides in Syria.

It is the hope of monetary aid that helps drive Hamas' acceptance of the deal.

As for the PA, they have now entered into an agreement and joined forces with a registered and universally accepted terror organization.

United States law, as well as almost all of European law, prohibits supporting a terror organization. That means that the monetary aid, the raison d'etre of Hamas for joining with the PA, will stop.
There is no way the White House can justify sending funds to a Palestinian government that includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

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Europe Sees The Jihad Threat
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Both the French and Dutch governments issued reports today that hundreds of their citizens have been involved in jihadist activists. Many of them have been trained, fought and died in Syria.

In the case of Amsterdam, one Dutch citizen was even a suicide bomber.

The reports underscore the urgent need for Europe to respond to the changing and wide spread landscape of terror. These governments, as well as the rest of Europe, are trying to create responses which will protect their homes and home turf from the extremism that these jihadists will bring back with them from Syria.

The jihadists return home with battle and weapons experience and training. They are battle hardened and they are even more dedicated to the jihadist cause than they were before joining the fight in Syria.

France says that 700 of their citizens were involved in jihadist activities in 2013. The actual number is probably three times that.

Until now the only tools governments had been using involved intelligence collection. Now the French Ministry of the Interior has announced that they are working on a plan to stem this movement. And Amsterdam has announced that they are cooperating with other governments to try to create a response.

The best response to hate is education. But that is a long term solution.

In the short term Europe needs to breakup jihadist groups, arrest members of jihadists groups and clamp down on individual jihadists.

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Next Iran Talks to Be in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The official Iranian student news service reported on Sunday that the next set of nuclear talks will take place in New York City.

The news agency, called ISNA, quoted a senior negotiator saying that in May the Iranians will continue their discussions with Western powers on the sidelines of the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty talks.

This is the first time since the talks began that negotiations will take place in New York City. It is a significant signal.
It means that all the parties to the negotiations have enough of a comfort level to agree to have the United States both host and to be a part of the talks.

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Al Qaeda & the PA
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, head of al Qaeda, posted a general update of al Qaeda on Saturday. Part of the update dealt with the Abbas and the Palestinians.

Zawahiri refers to Palestinian leadership as traitors and cowards.
He says that they have given up on the land and on their people and want only to conform to US and Zionist demands.

The PA responded by posting a statement on their website asking since when has al Qaeda even cared about the Palestinians.

Ahmad Assaf, the Fatah spokesmen, took the PA response several steps further saying: "confirm the level of his and his organization's involvement in the Zionist project. Since when has this hypocrite and his gang been interested in the Palestinian issue and the Palestinian people? They see the whole world an open arena for their activities, but we didn't see even one activity against the Israeli occupation."

Did you catch the last line?

The Fatah spokesman is asking why there has been not even a single terror al Qaeda attack against Israel. He is saying, in essence, if you cared about the Palestinians then you would be attacking Israel and killing Israelis.

This is one of the most honest statements by Palestinian leadership that I have heard in a very long time. Palestinian leadership traditionally attempts to create the illusion of a desire for coexistence and a condemnation of terror. Here we see the opposite. The spokesman is saying --- If you really loved us, you would be killing Israelis.

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Al Qaeda vs Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is clear that Bashar Assad is there to stay, at least for the short term. It is also clear that the real battle now being waged in Syria is between al Qaeda and al Qaeda breakaway groups.

The most recent spat is being waged on the audio waves of the internet. Abu Mohammed al Adnani, spokesperson for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the largest breakaway from al Qaeda posted a very angry and antagonistic internet audio message attacking the current leader of al Qaeda, Ayman Zawahiri.

Al Adnani let loose an ad hominem rant about how Zawahiri is betraying the cause of Islam and jihad and how he has deviated from the proper path.

In November of 2013, Zawahiri was so frustrated with this group that he officially disbanded them. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant responded by breaking away from al Qaeda claiming that they were the true jihadist group and declaring war on all others groups - especially al Nusra, now the official al Qaeda representative in Syria.

The battle about how best to conduct jihad continues. And the killing goes on.

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Turkey to Ask Russia for a Favor
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In foreign affairs and diplomacy nothing happens in isolation. A country's foreign affairs are, in many ways, akin to the game Settlers of Catan.

So as the situation begins to unravel with Russia, many other countries are stepping up, taking sides and taking advantage.

Imagine how interested I was to see that the deputy of the Russian natural gas company Gazprom was schedule to visit Turkey. And during the visit, Turkey intends on asking the Russians for a price reduction.

Russia/Gazprom is the major provider of natural gas for Turkey - and Turkey is dependent on imports for almost all of their energy.
Given today's political climate, Russia might be willing to reduce the price of gas in exchange for support in the international arena. If not support, at least silence.

For Turkey, it would seem to be a very small price to pay for cheaper natural gas.

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Horrific - Jews Must Register in Russian Ukraine!
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Horrific!! Just Horrific!!

The Jews living in a province located in a section of Ukraine that is being contested by the Russians have been asked to register at the regional citizenship office. If they do not follow directions their citizenship will be revoked, they will be forced to leave Ukraine and all their property will be confiscated. They must also pay a $50 registration fee.

The province, or, Obalst in Ukranian, is called Donetsk. It is home to the largest industrial area in Ukraine and lies in the eastern part of the country, close to Russia. Donetsk has a population of 4.3 million which is about 10% of the total population of Ukraine.
Many ethnic Russians live in the province. And there are 17,000 Jews living in Donetsk.

On Passover armed masked men delivered leaflets demanding that the Jews register.

The leaflet read:

"Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality,
Due to the fact that the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine, because you supported Bendery Junta, and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk, (An historical allusion to WWII) has decided that all citizens of Jewish descent, over 16 years of age and residing within the republic's territory are required to report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and register.

ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles.

Evasion of registration will result in citizenship revoke and you will be forced outside the country with a confiscation of property."

Who would have imagined that this would happen in the year 2014.

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Secret Talks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Those in the know knew, but they were quiet about it for these past two years. And those who did not know were no less wise without the knowledge.

I am referring to secret talks between Israel and her Arab neighbors. The talks have focused on how the region can confront Iran and save the Middle East from falling into crisis.

And then, on Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman gave an interview during which he outlined the pros and cons of the talks and explained why Arab countries are engaged in these unofficial dialogues with Israel.

Liberman said: "For the first time there is an understanding there that the real threat is not Israel, the Jews or Zionism. It is Iran, global jihad, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda."

He continued: "There are contacts, there are talks, but we are very close to the stage in which within a year or 18 months it will no longer be secret, it will be conducted openly."

"I have spent more than a few years of meetings and talks with them. As far as they are concerned, there is only one red rag and that is Iran," he said.

"You have to understand that if in Bahrain outlaws Hamas or Hezbollah, it's not because of Israel. When the presidential candidate in Egypt, General al-Sisi, outlaws the Muslim Brotherhood, it's not because of Zionism. They understand that we are on the same side of the divide."

"I think that they too are stewing in their own juice and reaching an awareness that there will be no choice but to move from the secret stage of the dialogue between us to the open stage of the talks."

The winds of the Middle East might be changing.


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Elections in Egypt May 26-27
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

On May 26th and 27th Egypt is scheduled to have democratic elections.

Last July Egypt ousted their democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood party. Since then an interim government has been in place. That temporary government was supported by the military. And it was the military, together with public outrage at the Muslim Brotherhood, which ousted Morsi.

Now the former leader of that military, Abdel-Fatteh al-Sissi, has collected the 25,000 signatures necessary to run for president in the May elections.

We have always assumed that al-Sissi will run and that he would be a shoe in. But nothing is certain until it happens - and in the Middle East nothing is certain until the dust settles which can take a good few weeks.

Elections in Egypt are five weeks away and campaigning has yet to really begin.

We hope for a fair election and that whoever the winner is will propel Egypt towards a future that is more stable and free.

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Iran Drills on Iraqi Border
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media has been reporting on two very interesting pieces of information.

The first is that Iran has called off the move to position part of their naval fleet in the Atlantic. The decision was made because, at this point, they need to keep their ships closer to home.

The second is that the Iranian border patrol has embarked on a four day exercise involving drones, balloons, armored vehicles and 4,000 border guards. The drill will take place along the Iraqi border, covering five Iranian provinces.

Aside from the obvious need for preparedness, this drill is sending a direct message to Iraqi militia groups and smugglers warning them not to cross into Iran.

Iran is warning Iraqi leadership to make certain that their side of the border is secure. Or else!

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Al Qaeda Threatens Entire Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I was pleased to see that Egypt arrested Wael Ahmed Abdel Fattah on terror charges and charges of being affiliated with a terror organization.

Abdel Fattah, who worked for an oil company, went to Syria and fought alongside the al Qaeda affiliated group al Nusra in their battle to oust Syrian President Assad. Al Nusra is also locked in a bitter struggle against other rebel groups in Syria.

The natural outgrowth of an al Qaeda fighting force in Syria is to pop up, to sprout, to infiltrate surrounding countries. And now these al Qaeda groups have new, well trained fighters with battle experience.

Another outgrowth of al Qaeda groups fighting in Syria is the realization that even those leaders who supported ousting Assad - like the Egyptians, have now been turned into the targets of the rebels groups they were supporting in Syria.

The complexity and multi-layered underpinnings of the war in Syria are only now beginning to be understood by the world. The repercussions will be felt for a long time.

The Middle East is an extremely complicated region. And yet, for decades, world leaders chose to describe it in the most simple of terms. Now they must face the truth - the Middle East no longer fits the simple narrative they imposed upon it.

Al Qaeda is setting their sights on every single country in the Middle East. And after that, they intend to conquer the West.

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Syrian Update
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has been on the back burner for most media outlets these past few weeks. Yet, there are still important developments that warrant our attention.

The process of the disposal of non-conventional weapons by Syria had come to a halt, but is now back on track.

And Assad has continued to solidify control over more and more of Syria.

Most importantly, rebel forces continue to fight one another more than they are fighting Assad. Over the past 36 hours 68 rebels have been killed by other rebels. The fighting is taking place in the area around Bukamal which is situated in Eastern Syria, near to the border with Iraq. Bukamal just happens to be the site of Syria's rich oil reserves.

The conflicts are between an al Qaeda breakaway called the Islamic State of Iraq and between the Levant and an al Qaeda affiliate called Al Nusra. There were times when the forces worked together, but for the past 18 months they have been viscously battling each of over.

They are battling over the question of who has the greater faith.

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If Deal Goes Thru Bibi Might Fall
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors abound about a deal that will put the Israeli /Palestinian peace talks back on track. But not all concerned parties are in favor.

The deal, according to Al Arabiya, a usually reliable media source, goes like this: Israel agrees to free more prisoners and temporarily freeze construction; Palestinians extend the April 29th talk deadline and stop all UN advances for membership; the United States frees Jonathan Pollard.

All is fine - except. Except that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition might just fall apart.

Coalition member Naftali Bennett of Bayit Yehudi (The Jewish Home Party) said in response to the deal: "If any proposal freeing Israeli murderers is put before the government, the Bayit Yehudi will object, and if it will pass - the Bayit Yehudi will leave the government which frees murderers with Israeli citizenship. Enough is enough."

Bennett continued: "I hope to see Pollard freed from prison soon, but not through immoral deals like the one currently being proposed."

Bennett has 12 of the 68 seats in the Netanyahu coalition. A coalition requires 60 seats out of 120 members of Knesset. If Bennett and his party pull out, the government falls. When the government fails, Bibi Netanyahu is out.

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Israel Launches Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Israel launched another advanced satellite into space.
This Israeli satellite is named OFEK 10.

The new satellite joins OFEK 9, which is already in orbit.

Each OFEK satellite takes 90 minutes to circle the globe. The satellites are evenly spaced and now, every 45 minutes, Israel has real time pictures of what is happening.

This addition to Israel's satellite system brings with it significant improvement to Israel's security. Now Israel can better monitor what is happening in places of concern. They can, for example, watch and see in real time if Iran is moving missiles and if so, where.

Israel was the seventh country in the world to launch satellites.
Today that club is still very small. Only twelve countries possess the satellite technology. They are: United States, Russia, China, France, Italy, Britain, India, South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, and Iran and Israel.

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Peres Visits China
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli President Shimon Peres is on an official three day offical visit to China. Peres is the first Israeli Presidential visit to China in ten years.

Yesterday Peres met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday. Their meeting lasted two hours.

There is no doubt that the two presidents spoke about Iran's nuclear technology and the threat it poses to Israel, the region and the world. They also spoke about Palestinian / Israeli negotiation and probably about Syria.

It appears that Peres was moderately successful in convincing his Chinese counterpart of the dangers Iran poses. But never the less, Xi Jinping stressed that China is in favor of talks and negotiations with Iran.

With that, Peres tried to make sure that China will help make certain that, in the course of negotiations, Iran does not quietly slip into a position in which they actually do have nuclear weapons.

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PA Will Turn to Russia
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US and Israel still feel the after effects of the trouncing they took at the hands of the Palestinians last week.

And now, as I have been predicting for the past two years, the Palestinians have another card up their sleeve - a card that neither the US nor Israel ever took seriously.
Russia.

After the events involving Ukraine and Crimea, after the role Russia played in Syria, the Palestinians have the perfect entree to go and request that Russia be their mediator in talks with Israel.

There have been game changing events in the Middle East over the past few years and Russia has been vying for more influence in the region. Now they have the perfect opportunity. And the best part of it all is that the Russians can, once again, show the world not only how the United States has failed but also how they can be counted on for the win.

Of course it will happen just as the Palestinians want. Israel will be forced into a discussion with the Palestinians and the third party will be Putin. In the best of all worlds the United States will remain a part of the discussion - even if only as a fourth wheel.

If I were advising Abbas and the Palestinians that is exactly what I would suggest. Invite the Russians to join the table. And watch out for sharp knives.

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Iran & Pakistan Navies Engage in War Games
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Non-Western news agencies are filled with the story of Iran and Pakistan and their naval maneuvers in the Straits of Hormuz.

The Chinese press is all over the story.

In the West few people will know what story I am talking about - but they should. So here it is:

On Saturday a flotilla of Pakistani naval ships docked in Bandar Abbas in advance of a four-day joint exercise with Iran. According to the Tehran Times the ships included a missile launching warship, a supply ship and an advanced submarine.

The obvious reason for the drills is to advance military cooperation between the two countries. There will also be meetings between the leaders of both navies.

The untold agenda is far more significant.

Iran and Pakistan are proclaiming to the West that they are hardly pariahs. They are saying that there are real and substantial relationships between them and that they will stand by one another in the case of political or military attack. They are making the point that the "international isolation" of Iran is not working.

They are reprimanding the West. Iran and Pakistan are saying that a byproduct of the serious talks between Iran and the West concerning
Iran's nuclear technology is to make "international inclusion" the more operative status.

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Potential Blow Back on the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States are evaluating responses to the recent and very bold initiative taken by the Palestinians to join the United Nations via its agencies and treaties.

The obvious counter response by the United States is to withhold nearly $1 billion in funding.

Israel has many more options. They can decide not to hand over import taxes collected at Israeli ports for Palestinian products.
They can make traveling from area to area on the West Bank very difficult. Or they can grind the current political model to the ground.

Most importantly, Israel had the ability to withdraw its protection of Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Israel has made a concerted effort to squelch Hamas and other anti-PA activity in the West bank as a way of currying favor with Abbas, their peace partner and with his Palestinian Authority.

Israel can, easily and indirectly, cause the ousting of Abbas and his entire regime. It is a response that is being considered over all other responses right now.

The down side of implementing that plan is best articulated by the famous quote from Machiavelli: "the enemy you know is better than the enemy that you don't."

In this case, Israel knows both Hamas and Abbas and it is not going to be an easy decision.

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Israel Warns of Hack Attack
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced a cyber alert for all government and national websites.

The alert is in effect from Friday through Monday. There will be only limited international access. Upgrades and maintenance are postponed. Almost all government financial transactions with outside vendors will be pushed off until after Monday.

Israel has received intelligence that over the next few days there will be a cyber attack against their computer systems. The attack will emanate from pro-Palestinian hackers around the world.

The hackers hope to ride the wave of the huge diplomatic success Palestinians have had over the past week. The Palestinians have left both the Israelis and the United States flat footed as they push hard to expand their independence - not just their statehood.

Palestinian supporters are urging Palestinian leadership to step out with swag and style. They are saying you took charge of the negotiations and put your diplomatic foot down.

In truth, Palestinian leadership is acting to meet short term interests and rubbing the noses of the US and Israel in their new found power and prowess. Their people and their supporters, who assumed that the leadership did not have the gonads for any of this, are elated.

This new support has propelled the popularity of PA leadership over that of Hamas leadership. They should enjoy the revelry and euphoria now. It will soon come to an end. Long term interests trump short term victories.

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DC Upset by the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The White House is livid, Congress even more so. They are furious with the Palestinians.

It is not like Washington to be unified in their frustrations with the Palestinians. As a whole, the Palestinians usually get the benefit of the doubt and are seldom called to task for their mistakes or deliberate jabs against the United States.

This time is different.

Calling off talks with Israel and starting a full-court press for UN recognition through the 60 or so treaties and UN-affiliated organizations is a violation of the very deal the United States has been working so hard to achieve. The worst part of it all is that the Palestinians are proceeding a month before the deadline.
Congress is investigating ways to cut off funding to the Palestinian Authority. The White House has not yet figured out how to respond.

The Palestinians response is that they were given no choice, that they had to act, that this was their only move.

In politics, there is seldom simply one move. And unilateral moves always result in strong responses. Now we watch and see how the United States responds.

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Fast Changes in Mid East
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Changes are emerging so quickly, it is hard to keep it all straight.

Israeli / Palestinian / US interaction was stalled. In order to jumpstart a discussion so many different proposals have been put forth that it is impossible to figure out which are realistic and what may actually take hold.

There is no way of knowing what is actually being suggested, but leaks and travel schedules can be extremely telling. For instance, when the US secretary of state makes an unscheduled trip to region, then promises to return the next day, then cancels that trip, something is happening.

When the president of the Palestinian Authority promises to not go to the United Nation and ask for full membership in its committees and then he begins the process of filling out the paperwork, something is happening. We know something is happening even when the US secretary of state says it is not so.

When each side has completely different talking points about the status of almost every item they are supposed to be negotiating about, we know there is a problem.

This is a sign of the futility of the venture - at least for the moment.

April 29th is the actual deadline for the negotiations. From the behaviors of the parties, one would think that the deadline was March 29th.

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Pollard Is US Ace in the Hole
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A few weeks ago I wrote about murmurings emanating from the White House suggesting that freedom for Jonathan Pollard would be dangled in front of the Israelis as a means of luring them into making difficult concessions to the Palestinians.

Now clearly articulated voices are even tossing around dates for his release. I have heard that if it happens, it will happen before Passover which takes place in two weeks - on April 14.

Spokespeople in the State Department and the White House have no comment on whether this is a real or fantasy proposal.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians have threatened to launch full scale bid for recognition in all UN agencies if Israel does not release the third and final set of prisoners originally scheduled to be released this past Sunday. When US Secretary of State John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to the region yesterday he was slapped with this Palestinian ultimatum.

So in order to mollify the Israelis, the Obama administration might play the Pollard card. No US presidential administration has come this close to freeing Pollard who was arrested on November 21, 1985 and convicted in 1987.

The problem is that the United States holds very few cards - and even fewer aces, when it comes to enticing Israel. The one ace is Jonathan Pollard. As it now stands, it is not even clear that the Palestinians are ready for a peace deal. And if that is the case, it would be a waste for the United States to play their ace right now.

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Palestinians & 3rd Intifada
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians are threatening a 3rd Intifada. An intifada is a huge spontaneous uprising against the Israelis.

They threaten violence if Israel does come through on the promised to release the 4th group of Palestinian prisoners. The prisoners were scheduled to be released on Sunday. By Friday it was clear the prisoners would not go free.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that they would go free only after the Palestinians come back to the negotiating table and there is some real progress.

The hook that lured the Palestinians to the table for the last round of talks was the promise to release prisoners. But now, after three sets of prisoners have already been released, the Palestinians are not so eager to return to the table.

Israel says come to the table and you will get the prisoners.
Once again, Israel and the Palestinians are at a stalemate.

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Egypt Opens Border w Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday, Egypt opened their border with Gaza at Rafah and permitted 6000 Gazans to enter.

Since July when Sisi overthrew Morsi assuming the presidency of
Egypt the border has been closed and only opened sporadically.
Gazans claim that the thousands of people waiting to re-enter Egypt are students waiting to return to classes and the sick, waiting entry to hospitals for treatment.

The Egyptians say that Gaza is exporting extremism and that using tunnels and border crossings terrorists are entering Egypt and embarking on attacks that result in destabilization and murder.

Egypt has said that since July they have destroyed over 1000 tunnels that smuggles people and goods. They say that now all the tunnels have been destroyed.

But Hamas and other groups claim that there are many more tunnels that have not been destroyed and that they will continue to shuttle people and weapons and food and supplies in and out of Gaza.

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More Violence in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Three people died in protests in Cairo yesterday.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been protesting the mass conviction, sentencing and execution of hundreds of members. They have taken to the streets.

As is to be expected, Egyptian authorities have clamped down on the unrest and the streets have turned violent. According to some reports, one of the victims of the violence was a female journalist - but I have not been able to confirm the identities of any of the victims.

Egyptian leadership has determined that the Muslim Brotherhood is a real threat to their democracy and to their very culture as a state. They have finally concluded that the Muslim Brotherhood should be made illegal. The process of closing them down will be fraught with continued conflict and more violence.

To put it in perspective, the Muslim Brotherhood has been a legal organization for just under three years. Since its founding in 1928 until the revolution in 2011 that ousted Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood was illegal.

In Egypt, this situation is not so unusual at all.

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Turkey to Block Youtube
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Turkey began blocking another social media site. Now the Turkish government is shutting down YouTube. Last week Turkish President Erdogan shut down twitter.

Despite the outpouring of international and Western criticism, the site remains shuttered. I am being told that, this time, people are finding ways around the twitter shut down.

YouTube is closed after a damning and embarrassing tape of an important meeting was posted. It was a meeting between the Turkish foreign minister, the head of Turkish intelligence, the deputy head of the Army and other important diplomats and leaders. The government officials were plotting an invasion into Syria.

A leak of this sort was a clear violation of Turkish law. The tape contained plans to intervene in Syria. YouTube is a platform, it is a vehicle. Content is not evaluated, it is a place where people post.

The government of Turkey should find the person who posted the video and punish that person. YouTube as a social media platform is a great tool and it should not be closed.

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Syria Launches New Airline
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Kinda is the name of a new Syrian international airline. The airline will begin operations within the next few weeks.

The most telling part of this new venture is that after three years of civil war Syrian leadership believes that they can invest in the business of moving people - locals, business people and tourists - in and out of two major airports, one in Damascus and the other in Latakia.

Kinda anticipates that within a few months they will be servicing 10 destinations including Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.

The entire coastal region of Syria is under the total control of Bashar Assad and in his eyes and in the eyes of people on the ground, the situation is fast approaching normalcy.

Syrian leadership hopes that this new government-sponsored airline will help invigorate travel and attract people to visit and invest in Syria as it rebuilds. The creation and launch of Kinda is intended to symbolize the transition from war to rebuilding.

This does not mean that all is quiet, it does mean that the conflict is winding down.

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Iran Out-Smarts West in Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran always thinks strategically. And the move they just made is brilliant.

According to ISNA, the official government Iranian Student News Agency, Iran is planning to open an oil shipping terminal outside the straits of Hormuz, in Bandar Jask on the Gulf of Oman.

It will be the second oil terminal Iran has opened outside of
Hormuz. The first is on the island of Khark.

Why is this move so brilliant? Because it protects Iranian national interests.

Somewhere between 20% and 25% of the daily supply of oil for the entire world goes through the Straits of Hormuz. And Iran is in control of the Straits.

But Iran has threatened to shut down the Straits. If they did indeed shut them down, it would impact their own oil exports. But if Iran had its own outlet for oil, an outlet that avoided the Straits, they would be free to close the Straits of Hormuz at any time without any real economic risk.

The price of crude oil would skyrocket and Iran could continue to supply the market. A win win for Iran.

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Arab League Summit - Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The 25th Arab League Summit is now taking place. The summit is fraught with tension.

So far, participants have agreed that the 26th summit will be held next year in Cairo.

But seriously now, Qatar is causing a stir. Qatar is sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood - and Saudi Arabia and Egypt are trying to pressure Qatar to withdraw that support.

There is real talk about creating an Arab League resolution that would condemn terror and isolate the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are in agreement that the Muslim Brotherhood is a major cause of internal strike within the Arab world in general, and especially in their respective countries.

Other points of contention during this summit are the Arab spring and events in Syria.

Interestingly, last year during the summit Syrian opposition sat in the Syrian chair - this year the chair is empty. The Arab League is not convinced that Syrian opposition, because of who they are and what they represent, deserve a seat at the table.

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Hamas Sends Text Messages to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas, or some other terror group from Gaza, has just sent out a mass series of text messages. The messages threaten Israel and promise revenge for the death of Sheik Ahmed Yassin who was killed in a surgical missile strike by Israel in Gaza 10 years ago.

The texts, written in Hebrew, read:

"If Gaza will be attacked the life of the Zionists will be hell"

"In the next war all the Land of Palestine will return"

"Al Qassam has chosen you to be the next Shalit"

"We don't forget the blood of our sheik. We swear again to take revenge, and this time by taking off the head of your leaders"

"Zionist killed our sheik by missile and now our missile can hit every corner of Zionist state"

And they are signed: "Sheikh Yassin's Followers"

The purpose of these messages is to frighten average Israelis who picked up their phones and were invaded with the text messages.

Israel's phone systems were hacked. In 2009 Hamas also succeeded in sending text messages, but the Hebrew was very poor and they were not taken seriously. These are different. This time Israelis who read the texts feel as if their privacy has been invaded. It is as if the terrorists threatened them personally.

The phone companies are trying to make certain that this does not happen again.

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Pollard May Be An Incentive
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The US Israel relationship is very sturdy. It is also very complicated.

Yes, the United States is upset because Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon has spoken out of turn. And there will be a price to pay. Exactly how much and when is still to be decided.

But now the US is also very worried, this time about the breakdown of Israeli Palestinian talks. The deadline is just a few weeks away. And the US needs to incentivize the talks.

Israel is the party that will need to capitulate, accommodate and compromise. That is the nature of the beast. Israel is the powerful party and in the eyes of the United States it is Israel, not the Palestinians, who must give in.

Given the impasse, the question of the day is what will help Israel along the path to compromise? There are not many things that can be used as incentives for Israel.

And so, for the first time in decades, I am hearing whispers about the United States raising the Jonathan Pollard case and using it as a fulcrum to help Israel come around to thinking about the negotiations through the perspective of the United States.

In the end, the United States may very well sweeten the deal by promising to release convicted spy Jonathan Pollard. That would be a new, and long sought, development.

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Israel's Def Min Insults the US -- Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Defense Minister has once again insulted the United States. Defense Minister Ya'alon, voicing his own point of view, said that the image that US President Obama and the United States present to the world is best described as "feebleness."

In the past Ya'alon has said that Kerry "should just get his Noble Peace Prize and leave us alone."

And indeed, in the past Ya'alon has apologized. This time he offered a clarification to US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. But neither the White House nor the State Department are satisfied with the "clarification."

The question begs asking: why does the White House care at all about the rants of Israel's Defense Minister. Sure, his comments were insulting but they were for internal consumption not for international broadcasting.

And internally, the Israeli understood. They took the comments for what they were - an attack on their own prime minister.

Now Ya'alon is persona non grata in the halls of power. I doubt that this time not even an apology will get him out of the DC dog house. And I fear that this situation might impact on Ya'alon's ability to do his job.

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Turkey Wants to Close Twitter
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is on the eve of national municipal elections scheduled for March 30.

Pressure is mounting. These municipal elections are a referendum on Erdogan and his leadership. While he is not running personally in this election, everyone in the country is either voting for or against him by proxy.

Yesterday at an election rally Erdogan threatened to shut down twitter and other social media. The social media chatter has become an effective tool of the opposition especially the youth.

Erdogan said that he will shut them down and he does not care about world condemnation. Of course, Erdogan's statements are electioneering. He is trying to turn his people against the West and Western technology.

No one can predict what will happen. Erdogan can fail or he can succeed. Only time will tell.

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PA to Drill For Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while you hear or read about crazy idea.

Like this: EU representative and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair together with US Secretary of State John Kerry are suggesting that the Palestinians drill for oil. The two leaders drew up the initiative and now, together with the Palestinian Authority, they are seeking proposals for oil exploration.

What were they thinking? The area that the Palestinian Authority plans to explore covers 155 square miles - and most of it is in Israeli controlled land. According to all previous agreements as well as the location for the exploration, the process would require Israel's agreement.

Why are Blair and Kerry involved? What company would dump money into this exploration? Has no one asked for the research?

There have already been a large number of exploration surveys and viability studies. And all the research has determined that there is no energy profit to be made in the West Bank and that part of Israel.

Crazy and dangerous. Blair and Kerry have just created and opened up another Pandora's Box of strife and controversy between the PA and Israel.

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Egypt & Ethiopia in Conflict over Nile
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in conflict for a year.

Ethiopia is diverting part of the Blue Nile River in order to create a huge hydro electric dam called the Great Renaissance Dam. Work on the $4.7 billion project began last year and should be completed in three more years.

The Blue Nile begins in Ethiopia and flows into Sudan where it merges with the White Nile and forms the famous Nile River.

Diverting the Nile for any purpose is an explosive act because it could cause a death blow to any of the ten Nile Basin desert countries that are dependent on its fresh water.

In 1929 Egypt and Ethiopia signed a treaty promising not to alter the Nile without mutual approval. Then, in 1970, when Ethiopia attempted to build 26 dams Egypt rejected the plan. And in 1993 the two countries again signed a deal stipulating that neither would do anything to the Nile that would harm the other's interests.

Now we arrive at the present day conflict.

Both parties are talking but there is no agreement. Egypt is not happy with the current project and tensions are rising.

In that part of the world fresh water is far more valuable than oil.

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Jerusalem the Gold - A Model For Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic conference is taking place in Teheran, Iran right now. Of course, one of the major themes of the conference focuses on the evils of Israel or, as they call it, the Zionist entity.

Ramadan Salah, the leader of Islamic Jihad in Gaza, spoke in a way that was truly surprising. Salah explained the significance of
Naomi Shemer's legendary song "Jerusalem the Gold" saying that the Zionists have taught their children the importance of Jerusalem and this famous song symbolizes that message.

Salah said: "There is a song the Zionist army sang when it conquered the Al-Aqsa mosque. It is called Jerusalem of Gold."

"Every child in the Zionist entity and every soldier in that cursed entity memorizes the lyrics to this song."

Then he added: "many well-known Western artists have sung it in English."

By way of critique and comparison Salah asked the crowd: "What is the significance of Jerusalem in our culture?" "What is its significance in our religion?"

The leader of Islamic Jihad in Gaza was telling the Muslim participants at this conference that Jews around the world connect to Jerusalem as do so many other people around the world - while Muslims do not.

His plea to Muslim leaders was to go home and change their message.

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Israel Imrpoves Security Due to Malaysia Flight
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is responding to the disappearance of Malaysia flight # 370.

The Israelis have instituted a series of new security steps to prevent commercial aircraft from becoming weapons.

Israel has extended the required range for airlines to announce that they will be entering Israeli airspace. The buffer was already a significant distance and security secret. Now it is even larger and gives radar and air force teams that much more time to make certain that a passenger airplane is indeed what it says it is.

Over the past year there have been numerous passenger planes that have not followed Israel's procedures in air. They entered Israeli airspace and were met with F-16 fighter jets and escorts until they properly identified themselves using the required codes.

Israel believes that pilot suicide and plane hijackings are very real risks to their security, so they are constantly and diligently improving their security measures.

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Russian War Games in The Med
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We have not paid much attention to the Russian navy now stationed in the Mediterranean.

The Russians have a very formidable force in the Middle East. Most significantly their only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kunetzov, is stationed in the region.

And it should come as no surprise that the Russians are presently engaged in war games and exercises in the Mediterranean. That means that tens of fighter jets and helicopters are practicing and drilling their evacuation and medical teams.

But the real purpose of this public display is to let everyone know that Russia has a real force in the region.

Russia is also making a clear point: As things get more difficult for Russia in the Ukraine, things will get more difficult for the West in Syria and in the Middle East.

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US Changes POV on "Jewish State"
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine my surprise when I read this official comment by Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for the State Department.

Psaki said that --- "If you look at the issue of a Jewish state and whether Israel will be called a Jewish state, that's been our position, as you know, for a long time, but that doesn't reflect what the parties will agree to ... and of course there are many issues like that that are being discussed as part of the framework."

This comment means that the US is not committed to the Israel's demand that the Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish State.

This statement assumes that the Jewish State issue is still up for discussion. That means that US Secretary of State Kerry realizes that Palestinian President Abbas will not budge on this issue.

And that in turn means that Israel must be forced to compromise.

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Iran's Rouhani Visits Oman
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran made his first visit to an Arab country since assuming office. Yesterday, Rouhani visited Oman.

This short two day trip is much more important than it appears.

Rouhani flew into Muscat accompanied by a very significant Iranian economic delegation. Ostensibly, the purpose of the trip is to build better relations between the countries and to bolster trade and, quite frankly, all other interactions.

But the real purpose of this trip is to explore mutual interests.

Iran and Oman are separated by only one tiny strait. They share the most important straits in the world - the Straits of Hormuz. On one side is Iran and on the other is Oman. And every single day between 20% and 25% of the world's oil passes through those straits.

Iran and Oman need to be on decent terms in order to effectively achieve their own and their shared aims. They both know that there is much that divides them. Rouhani is hoping to find those things that unite them and to make Oman happy enough to permit Iran to use
Hormuz in order to achieve its objectives.

We can only guess at what those objectives are.

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Turkey is Erupting Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Protests plague Turkey once again.

This time around the protests have erupted for several reasons.
Most important is that a 15 year old boy died from the wounds he suffered during an anti-government protest in June last summer. The boy was hit with a tear gas canister and lapsed into a coma. Upon his death, huge rallies were organized.

Although people are, quite rightfully, upset by the death of this young man his death is really a tool with which to draw Turks to the protests.

The real reason for the huge anti-government protests taking place now is that in less than three weeks the nation goes to the polls. And although the elections will only be for municipal and regional posts, the entire country will be voting.

The election is seen as a referendum for or against President Erdogan.

For the first time since he was elected to power nine years ago in 2003, Erdogan is worried.

In December major players associated with Erdogan were arrested and investigated on corruption charges. He has since begun a significant - but unsuccessful - campaign to prop himself up and deflecting the bad PR.

Turkey has been out of the limelight for some time. Expect it to return to center stage in the next month.

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Gas -- The Ukraine and Russia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Security Council met again yesterday - and Russia was feeling the isolation. Everyone, even China, spoke against the Russian land grab in Crimea and the future referendum scheduled for May 16.

The EU is going to meet next week, on March 17, and they will be talking about increasing their pressure on Russia to pull out.

But Russia still has a few cards still to play.

Gazprom, the Russian gas company, supplies the Ukraine with natural gas. They are demanding payment for February which comes to $1.3 billion. Gazprom is the largest natural gas extractor and supplier in the world. Russia says that if they do not get paid they will not deliver gas in March.

There's more. Six EU countries receive 100% of their natural gas from Russia. 75% of Russia's natural gas export goes to the EU. That means that Russia exerts tremendous influence on EU decisions.

The EU and the West can try to flex their muscles but it should be clear who holds the better cards in this game.

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Libya on Verge of Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Conflict is about to get ugly in Libya. It is a country on the verge of a civil war.

Rebels, who are demanding more liberal changes, have taken over three major ports since the summer. Now a North Korean oil tanker is sitting in the port of Sadr. The rebels want to fill the tanker and send it on its way.

Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan went on national TV and warned everyone, including the crew of the ship, saying: "The tanker will be bombed if it doesn't follow orders when leaving (the port). This will be an environmental disaster."

Zeidan was not issuing an idle threat. In January the Libyans used their navy to block rebel ports and prevent tankers from entering and picking up oil.

On Saturday the rebels sacrificed a camel in Sadr and the footage shows the North Korean tanker in the background. The rebels were celebrating their first filling of the tanker filling and wishing it well.

It looks like a Libyan standoff. Expect fireworks - literally.

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Hamas Beats Up on Fatah in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas police brutally beat up on and then broke up a rally of Fatah supporters in Khan Yunis today. People were injured and people were arrested. They twenty people who were arrested were released only after signing a document saying that they would never again participate in illegal gatherings.

The rally was a memorial and show of support for those who died fighting (against Israel).

The rally did not have a permit - and that was the reason given for breaking it up.

The entire episode shows the important distinctions and tensions that exist between Hamas and Fatah, the two largest Palestinian groups. Ever since the parliamentary election of 2006, when Hamas won the plurality but Abbas and the PA never permitted them to assume their elected, role there have been violent tensions between the groups. That includes the 2007 brutal and murderous coup that ousted the PA from Gaza.

There have been attempts at reconciliation. And agreements have been signed. The latest agreement was signed in 2012, but never implemented. There is terrible hatred and terrible distrust between Hamas and Fatah.

Now Hamas is feeling the strangle hold of Egypt which closed their border with Gaza and has made Hamas illegal in Egypt. Add to that the loss of Hezbollah and Iranian support and you understand how Hamas has been marginalized, weakened and starved.

Hamas will continue to lash out at Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. That is all that is left for them to do.

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US - Israel Special Realtionship
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Congress passed a bill that transforms the relationship between the United States and Israel.

The bill classifies Israel as a "strategic partner." That classification comes with great benefits. Under the bill Israel will receive tremendous security benefits as well as priority on weapons surpluses.

The bill is now off to the Senate where it is expected to pass overwhelmingly and then to the president who is expected to sign it.

The original draft of the legislation had an additional benefit that Israeli citizens were very much hoping to achieve. But in the final version, it was removed.

The clause would have permitted Israelis automatic tourist visas. Israeli citizens would get visas upon arrival in the United States the same way US citizens get them when they enter Israel. It would have streamlined Israelis access to the US, a process that often requires long months of waiting and even denial.

That privileged status may still come - but at a later date and by way of another bill.

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Agreements to Protect -- Don't Protect
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Have any of you heard of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances? Here's a hint. It was signed in Budapest, in 1994.
My guess is, probably not.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was an agreement wherein the Ukraine agreed to dismantle all nuclear weapons in exchange for security and safety. It was signed in Budapest on December of 1994 and the signees were US President Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister John Major and Russian President Boris Yeltsin.

Here is the official summary: Russia, the UK and the USA undertake to respect Ukraine's borders in accordance with the principles of the 1975 CSCE Final Act, to abstain from the use or threat of force against Ukraine, to support Ukraine where an attempt is made to place pressure on it by economic coercion, and to bring any incident of aggression by a nuclear power before the UN Security Council.

In other words: the United States and Great Britain (forget about Russia) and the world promise to protect the Ukraine.

This agreement and others like it, really do not help much. This one is certainly not protecting the Ukraine.

Now imagine what Israel is thinking and what lessons Israelis are learning from this. How can Israel possibly assume that the United States will, should the time come, come to its defense?

Israel has learned that the best they can expect is an appeal to the UN Security Council. Not much consolation there.

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Quenelle Salute - Player Gets Punished
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The UEFA suspended Omar Rahou for repeatedly using the quenelle, the inverted Nazi salute. The Union of European Football (soccer) Associations has zero tolerance for any hint of racism and has punished Rahou a Belgium player for 10 games.

Omar Rahou joins Nicolas Anelka as players who used the saluted and suffered the punishment suspension.

The quenelle has become a rallying point for anti-Semites throughout Europe as they follow in the footsteps of the French comedian, Dieudonne, who invented the gesture.

The shame of it all is that the quenelle continues to gain popularity. On the positive side, decent people and organizations like the UEFA understand the danger of this kind of racism and are clamping down and doing their best to stymie the momentum.

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Why We Should Care About Urkraine
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past week or so one of the most common questions asked of me on air and during lectures has been about the Ukraine and the role of Russia vis a vis the Ukraine.

More specifically, people are asking why we should care about what happens in the Ukraine. And they are asking if Russia is pulling a land grab.

My response is brief and to the point: Think energy natural gas and oil.

Since the crisis with Russia and the Ukraine, oil and natural gas prices have skyrocketed. The principle reason for the increase is that Russia is a major producer and refiner of oil and a producer of natural gas. And the Ukraine's largest export is oil.

Now that there is a threat of war between Russia and the Ukraine the market is talking. And the market is saying that any actions that put at risk the flow of oil and natural gas will drive up prices.

Because Russia is poised for war and has taken over Crimea, the price of energy has increased.

If that isn't enough of a reason for the West to care about what is happening with the Ukraine and Russia, I don't know what is.

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Bibi Obama Meeting Today
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In the Oval Office today President Barack Obama will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Both leaders have made opening moves before the meeting. On Thursday Obama sat down for an interview with Jeffery Goldberg that was posted on Sunday, on Bloomberg. Before boarding his plane to the US, Netanyahu issued a statement from his office.

There was a clear objective in both messages - announcing the direction they each wanted the meeting to take. As is often the case, there was nothing new or surprising in either message, nothing the other leader is not already aware of.

In essence, both Israel and the United States are on the same side conceptually, it is the practical side, the nuts and bolts, that puts them at odds with each other. Actually, it is all about time and timing.

Obama believes that there is no real time left for continued discussion of the Palestinian issue. He believes that if a resolution is not arrived at now, the United States will not be able to successfully support Israel in the international arena. And on the Iranian issue, on the other hand, Obama thinks there is plenty of time left to let Iran come around.

Netanyahu thinks exactly the opposite. He believes that there is plenty of time on the Palestinian issue but on the Iranian issue, there is no time left at all.

It is past the point where Obama and Netanyahu can agree to disagree. Sparks will be flying out of the Oval Office.

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Difference Btw Ukraine & Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

What makes the ousting of the Ukrainian President Victor Yukashenko different from the ousting of the democratically elected Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi?

The difference is that Egypt's ousting of Morsi was accomplished by a coup and Ukraine's ousting of Yukashenko was a legal transition of power.

Both leaders were elected to serve their country. During the resulting unrest, there was violence and people were killed in both countries. Both had huge rallies in support of and opposition to their leadership and there were massive protests in both main city squares. In both cases the protestors leaned towards Western influences while the presidents leaned toward traditional, older school influences. In the case of Egypt, Morsi affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and in the Ukraine Yukashenko leaned toward Russia.

The significant difference is that in the Ukraine, Yukashenko fled. He fled the capital and tried to escape the country. Eventually, he succeeded and landed in Moscow. Yukashenko ran for his life for fear of being killed or arrested. He abdicated his office.

Once he left his office, he was no longer in charge and the process of transition applied. The Ukrainian parliament put a temporary government in place and stability was restored.

In Egypt, Morsi refused to leave. He had to be forced out of his post, then he was arrested and then he was replaced.

In the end it may sound the same but in reality it is the difference between a coup d'etat and a democratic ousting of an elected president.

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WMD Convoy Attacked in Syira
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

No details were given but it was a very disturbing report.

According to a report given to the UN Security Council, two convoys carrying chemical weapons were attacked while transferring their materials in Syria. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons told the UN Security Council that on Thursday January 27, 2014 while transporting Syrian weapons of mass destruction for their ultimate removal and destruction the convoys were attacked.

Unfortunately, we do not know who attacked the convoys nor do we know the nature of the attack or the extent of the damage.

We can assume, however, that the weapons were not compromised. We can assume that they did not become volatile and/or dangerous. We can also assume that the weapons did not fall into the wrong hands.

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300 Anne Frank Diaries Vandalized in Japan
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism can be found anyplace ... even places without Jews and without a history of Jews or Jew hatred ... even in Japan.
308 copies of Anne Frank's diary were vandalized and destroyed in Japan. The vandals also destroyed entries on Anne Frank in reference books. The damage was so pervasive, it was found in 11 of the 13 public libraries in the capital city Tokyo.

Israel has just donated 300 new copies of Anne's book "Diary of a Young Girl". It is without a doubt the most famous book on the Holocaust ever published. It chronicles the life of a young girl in hiding with her family in a tiny secret room in Amsterdam.

The journal was never completed - neighbors informed the Nazis about the family and they were taken away to the notorious concentration camp Bergen Belsen where Anne died.

Anne Frank's thought and insights belie her young age and pre-War insulated upbringing. She asks and ponders the role of good and evil. She contemplates love and the importance of family. More than anything, Anne yearns for freedom.

An investigation is going on in Japan. It is very clear from the number of books destroyed that this was a carefully planned calculated attempt to rid Japan's public libraries and information centers of one of the most important first hand testimonies of the Holocaust.

That is deeply disturbing.

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Iran is Exporting More Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has increased its oil export for the fourth month in a row.
According to sources monitoring the oil tankers, it is clear that
Iran has continued to increase its oil production and its exports. And increased exports are a tremendous injection of cash into the Iranian economy.

According to the sources, Iran will have exported 1.30 million barrels per day in the month of February. That is an increase of 100,000 barrels per day.

The main destination for these oil tankers appears to be Syria and South Korea. And it seems that sometimes the tankers unload at sea. They transfer their cargo ship to ship so no one really knows where the oil is from and where it is going. That happened twice this February in Indonesian waters.

It should be clear that Iran is taking full advantage of the situation presented it by the new international "let's trust Iran to do the right thing" attitude the world has adopted. That attitude has provided Iran with an entry visa back into the world oil market - even with the serious sanctions that are still out there.

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German Gov Ministers In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days German government ministers - including the prime minister, the foreign minister and the education minister, were on a group visit to Israel.

It was a very important bonding experience for Israel.

Germany made the gesture to assure Israel that they are a true supporter and not merely a fair weather friend. As is the case with friends, several significant disagreements between Germany and Israel came to light during the visit.

The main difference of opinion is over the handling of Iran. Israel thinks that the only effective way to stop Iran's nuclear program is to insist on the dismantling of technology. Germany, an integral member of the P5+1, agrees with the rest of that group that it is possible and even preferable to negotiate with Iran and create a plan for slowing down and monitoring Iran's enrichment and nuclear development program.

Israel believes that the point of view of the six nations negotiating with Iran is nothing short of naive and that there is no real way to monitor and/or guarantee that Iran will keep up their end of the deal.

The friends agreed to disagree - but the debate is far from over.

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Follow the Money
By Micah Halpern

Blog
Tuesday February 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

We have all heard the expression "follow the money."

I do it all the time. It is a tool I use to understand and predict who the influencers are and what their involvement is, in the Middle East. We need to follow where the money is being spent - who is supplying weapons and who is buying them and from whom.

It was always obvious from the money trail that Iran supported Hezbollah. But not now. Now Iran has stopped supporting Hamas.

We also know that Iran and Russia are pumping money into Assad's regime in Syria. They want to influence the outcome.

And then yesterday it became public that a Russian delegation of flagstaff air-force officers arrived in Egypt. They came as the result of a $2 billion arms deal in which Egypt is buying air-force materials from Russia. The money trail led us right there.

Money in the Middle East is the key to influence and favoritism.
Even small money which led us to the discovery this week that Iran has signed an arms deal with Iraq to the tune of $165 million. The deal is small - but it is significant.

Follow the money and find out who is pulling whose strings.

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The Prob w Spain's Invite to the Jews
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Spain and Portugal are offering citizenship to the descendents of the families that they expelled in 1492 and 1493.

At first glance, you would assume this to be a magnanimous gesture. Think again.

The expulsion from Spain forced hundreds of thousands of Jews to run to Portugal. Eight months later when Portugal expelled them, they escaped to North Africa. Those who stayed were forced to convert to Christianity. The Inquisition was established to investigate those who converted and make certain that they were truly practicing Christianity, not secretly remaining Jewish. Those caught as still practicing Jews were torture and even burned at the stake.

There are three interesting elements missing from this citizenship invitation.
There was and still is no apology.
There was and still is no attempt to pay compensation

The deal is not being offered to the Muslims who were expelled in 1609.

Neither Spain nor Portugal has yet to see the wrong that was done and the horrors that were perpetrated in the name of keeping their countries Christian.

Today, with their warped and biased perceptions of Jews, they are trying to entice Jews to come to Spain and Portugal to help energize their terrible fledgling economies.

There is no attempt at contrition. There is no attempt at justice. And there is no desire to allow Muslims into their countries.
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Israel - Now A Gas Exporter
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is now an energy exporter. Israel is now exporting natural gas and will soon become one of the largest natural gas suppliers in the world.

Last week Israel signed a deal with Jordan to provide them with $500 million worth of natural gas over the next 15 years.

Jordan is in great need of gas. They were hit terribly by the breakdown of the pipeline from Egypt after it was repeatedly sabotaged by rebels. Now the Jordanians will have a dependable source of natural gas.

This gas comes from Tamar, a gas field deep below the Mediterranean Sea. It is the smaller of two gas discoveries that have been tapped recently. The larger is called Leviathan. Interestingly, Israel signed a gas deal with the Palestinian Authority to provide them natural gas from Leviathan.

It seems that Israel is a more reasonable and more dependable gas resource than neighboring Arab suppliers.

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Iran Executing Even More People This Year
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The West is full of preconceived ideas about the Middle East. Many people who were upset with Iran's human rights record under Ahmadinejad were relieved when Rouhani came into office. They saw real hope and were intoxicated by his use of language.

It was a farce. And the United Nations has seen a part of the duplicity.

The hope was that few people would be executed and that Iran would scale down - especially because under Rouhani, as a public gesture, some prisoners have been released. Then exactly the opposite happened. In the first seven weeks of 2014 as many as 95 people have been executed.

UN Human Rights Spokeswoman Ravina Shamdassani said in a press conference yesterday that: "There were some encouraging signs last year where the political prisoners were released… But it appears at least in the past seven weeks that in fact executions have been scaled up."

What astounds me is that people we are supposed to trust for their analytical skills were duped by the Iranians in the first place. How could the human rights people all over the United Nations not have expected this?

I saw it coming! Why didn't they?

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Iran Opens Embassy in London
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian flag was raised over the newly reopened Iranian embassy in London yesterday.

The embassy was closed two years ago after tensions between the United Kingdom and the Islamic Republic of Iran came to a head.

This past December England sent a charge d'affairs to Teheran and now Iran is ready and willing to re-open their embassy in London.
As of now the embassy is being staffed by locals and Iran does not yet have a diplomatic presence in England. However, Iran can and will begin to engage in bureaucratic activities.

It will not be long before a series of high level Iranian diplomats are dispatched to London.

As I first wrote several months ago when England sent their diplomat to Iran, the walls of Iranian isolation are tumbling down. It does not matter what emerges out of the dialogue with Iran, the very fact that there is a dialogue has greased the diplomatic wheels.

The winner in this entire game is definitely - Iran.

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Iran Has Become a Cyber Hacker
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Two years ago the world cyber powers were but three. The United States, Israel and China. They were the only real cyber players.
Today there is a fourth. Iran. Iran is now a serious cyber contender in terms of hacking, attacks and defense.

As recently as early in 2012 Iran was barely involved in cyber warfare. And then, in March of 2012, the Grand Ayatollah created a national council for cyberspace. Like wildfire Iran dedicated monies, hired recruiters and groomed their best and brightest for the cyber war.

Now Iran is both perpetrating attacks on others and protecting itself from attack by others. The Iranians are probably responsible for attacking the Saudi oil company named Saudi Aramco - the energy company that supplies about 10% of the world's oil. The attack erased data from 30,000 computers.

The Grand Ayatollah recently called on students to be their country's "cyber agents." He told them that they should get ready for a war. And Iranian Chief of Staff General Hassan Firousabadi told students that a "decisive battle" was on the horizon. "If any war is launched against Iran, we won't give any ground to the enemy and they themselves know this very well."

The general was speaking of cyber war. Iran is more prepared now than they have ever been. In less than two years, from March of 2012 until today, Iran has become a real player on the world's cyber warfare stage.

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Iran Told the Truth
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 resumed yesterday.

They began with the Iranian representative firmly proclaiming that Iran has no intention of shutting down a single nuclear facility.

This was a surprise to many observers - but not to me.

Since November the West has been maintaining that Iran will close certain facilities. The United States even took it upon itself to promise Israel that certain nuclear centers would be shut down.

But when you listened to the Iranians who were party to the agreement they repeatedly said that closing sites was nowhere in the agreement.

Of course, the West believed the West.

I realized that Iran would not have been so insistent if they did not have a real leg to stand on. And so it goes. Diplomats and Western leaders lied. Iran was speaking the truth. Iran does not and will not shut down their nuclear facilities.

Where does that leave us? In deep trouble.

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Kerry To Meet w Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 18, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

From all sources I have culled it appears clear that US Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas this week. I just do not know where the meeting will take place.

According to AFP a member of the Palestinian leader's inner circle said the meeting will take place in Paris. But a Chinese release has said that the meeting will take place in Amman, Jordan.

It really does not matter where the meeting takes place. What matters is that there will there be a meeting of the minds. Not necessary like-thinking minds, but certainly serious minds. My inclination is that there will be some agreement and much disagreement. At the conclusion of the meeting they will both tout the agreements.

Given the 6 demands that the Palestinians have already laid out, Kerry has his work cut out for him. The US secretary of state will be pushing hard for Abbas to accept Israel as a Jewish State. His argument is procedural.

Once that happens, Israel will almost immediately deliver on all other demands.

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Hamas Will Not Honor Any Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

In a speech at a rally in Gaza City on Saturday, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh made it very clear: If a deal is signed between the Israelis and the Palestinian Authority, it is not binding on Hamas.

Just in case we were unaware or unsure of how Hamas felt, now we know for sure.

He said: "The so-called American framework is not binding for us."
He explained that an agreement between Israel and the PA: "is unfair and imposes the Zionist violation of the Palestinian land."

There is no relationship between Gaza and the West Bank. The West Bank is controlled by the PA which is run by Mahmoud Abbas. Gaza is run by Hamas and led by Ismail Haniyeh.

There was a terrible rift between the two groups and they have separated. They have signed reconciliation agreements not once but twice, and neither agreement has been put in place.

As recently as this past week when a delegation from the PA went to Gaza they did not discuss reconciliation - they spoke primarily about border security.

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Egypt Clamps Down - Shuts Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has begun to clamp down hard on Gaza. Some analysts are anticipating a mini invasion into Gaza by Egypt to wipe up Muslim Brotherhood groups operating from and headquartered in the area.

Over the weekend Egypt destroyed 10 smuggling tunnels and blew up the houses that hid the tunnels. They are clearing out all the homes and all the sites that could be used as starting and ending points for the tunnels. In addition, Egypt created a 600 yard buffer zone from their border into Gaza. In unpopulated areas the buffer zone is 350 yards.

According to Egyptian sources, Egypt has destroyed 800 tunnels from January through October 2013. That is an impressive number.
Egypt is expending all this energy in an effort to keep extremists out of Egypt and, ultimately, to starve the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian army is actively pursuing all terror cells - but mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood. They are destroying the infrastructure of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Sinai and trying to strangle any access the Brotherhood might have to outside support, especially from Hamas in Gaza.

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SodaStream - Bubbles or Blood?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The recent controversy about SodaStream, the one that centered on the Super Bowl ad with Scarlett Johansson, has led to some very interesting debates.

SodaStream is manufactured outside Jerusalem over the now famous pre 1967 border known as the Green Line. The factory employs hundreds of people including many Palestinians who live over the Green Line. These Palestinians earn more than the Israeli minimum wage - which is more than three times the minimum wage in the Palestinian Authority.

The great selling point for SodaStream is not sexy Scarlett Johansson. The selling point is that when you use SodaStream you save plastic. SodaStream is "green" and great from the environment.

Detractors, however, claim that SodaStream is not about green issues or about the eco system and making less waste. They say "it is not about bubbles it is about blood." They argue that it is about Israelis spilling the blood of Palestinians in the form of their occupation.

This is a very emotional issue. It is charged with accusations and counter accusations. I do not foresee a simple resolution to this issue and I do not see any resolution in the near future.

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Palestinian Demands
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian demands before there can be peace with Israel have now been made public. There are more demands and more problematic demands than I had originally expected.

The demands became public in the form of an interview given by one of Abbas' aides to Al Ayyam, a Palestinian paper published in Ramallah.

The Six Palestinian demands are:
# 1: End of the conflict based on the Arab peace plan and relevant UN resolutions
# 2: Borders based on 1967
# 3: Israel must gradually withdraw from all Palestinian areas within 3 to 4 years
# 4: East Jerusalem is the Palestinian capital
# 5: Resolve the Palestinian refugee issue with Arab peace plan international legitimacy and UN Resolution 194
# 6: All Palestinian prisoners must be freed with the total withdrawal of Israel from Palestinian land

These are very problematic demands.

Let's just focus on #5 and UN Resolution 194. The resolution was passed on December 11, 1948. At the time there were 58 members of the United Nations. Six of them were Arab countries and every single one voted against it. The vote was 35 - 15 and 8 abstentions.

There are 15 clauses in the resolution and some are totally irrelevant. The first 6 clauses deal with recognizing Count Bernadotte and a reconciliation committee.

It is the 11th clause that most interests the Palestinians - it is the clause that deals with the refugee issue. It is a small paragraph of about 120 words and included in those words amorphous and vague terms like "should be permitted," "earliest practical date" and "wishing to live at peace with their neighbors." Also included are the words "compensation should be paid" for damages and property.

This will not be an easy issue to resolve. Palestinians and their supporters read this resolution very differently than the way Israel reads it.

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Bibi To White House in March 3
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The White House issued a statement confirming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit and meet with US President Barack Obama on March 3rd.

"The president looks forward to discussing with the prime minister progress in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, developments in Iran, and other regional priorities."

"Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit is a demonstration of the deep and enduring bonds between the United States and Israel, and our close consultations on a range of security issues."

Three essential topics will be discussed:
Iran and the nuclear issue
Israeli Palestinian peace talks
Regional stability in light of events in Syria and Egypt and the influx of al Qaeda

There is a strong possibility of tension between the two leaders on the first two topics. While Israel and the United States share a conceptual agreement on Iran and the peace process, they disagree on the details.

As they say, "the devil is in the details."

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Apollo Found in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

They live in Gaza and they went out fishing. For the fishermen of Gaza it has been a very slow season. That is, for fish.

Youdat Ghrab claims to have hooked an 1100 pound bronze statue of Apollo - in perfect condition. Ghrab says that he and his relatives spent 4 hours reeling in the find. Then they put it in a wagon and brought it home. It is a very special find.

Most statues are made of stone, finer statues are carved out of marble. Finding a complete life size sculpture in bronze is very rare. The pictures that have been released of the statue show the Greek god lying on a sheet - with Smurf designs all over it.

The statue was placed on ebay for a short time and then taken down. The asking price was $500,000. Hamas police came and took the statue. No one knows where it is now.

And the statue is no longer intact. Ghrab cut off a finger and brought it to a jeweler to test to see if it was gold. His brother did the same and the jeweler melted the finger.

Jean-Michel de Tarragon, a historian with the French Biblical and Archaeological School of Jerusalem, has made it very clear that the sculpture was discovered on land and not in the Mediterranean Sea just north of Egypt as is being claimed. Tarragon said that the true location of where it was found went unmentioned to avoid arguments over ownership.

Ynet quoted Tarragon saying "This wasn't found on the seashore or in the sea ... it is very clean. No, it was (found) inland and dry." He added that there were no tell-tale signs of metal disfigurement and no barnacles that one would normally sees on items plucked from water.

The sculpture is at least 2000 years old and something like it would never stand alone. It was in a temple or a palace. That is why the true location is so critical.

The truth will emerge. There were too many people involved in this escapade and at least one of them will be unable to keep the secret.

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Terrorists Blow Themselves Up
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It happens much more often than one would expect. Terrorists blow themselves and their colleague up while assembling and learning about bombs.

When you actually think about it, it makes sense.

Terrorists begin their careers as inexperienced ideologues playing with highly combustible material. Many of the explosive components they use are unstable - which means that just about anything can ignite them. Some components that are stable become dangerously unstable when mixed.

Yesterday, outside Baghdad, a bomb instructor teaching terrorists how to make a car bomb accidentally blew himself up and killed twenty-one other terrorist wannabes. The explosion alerted authorities to the terrorist training camp. The army came and arrested 24 mostly wounded terrorists.

Sometimes, this is the best way. Terrorists kill themselves in a work accident, far away from innocent people.

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Iran Airs Simulation Striking Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the weekend Iranian TV ran a documentary entitled "The Night of the Vultures." The film was a created by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and was a simulation of an Iranian counter attack against Israel and against the US fleet in the region.

The computer graphics were very realistic showing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV's) known as drones, flying over Israel and shooting missiles at strategic targets. The graphics showed the drones hitting huge business centers in Tel Aviv and Haifa, hitting military targets and hitting the Israeli nuclear facility located in Dimona.

The Iranian message is clear. Iran wants everyone to know that they will respond to an Israeli strike and they will strike at the very heart of Israel as well as at United States ships stationed nearby.

This is not the first time such a movie has been aired. A similar documentary was broadcast in September.

Moviemaking, even documentary moviemaking, is not the same as real life. But there have been Iranian drones that successfully infiltrated Israeli airspace. The most worrisome element of this documentary is in the details and in the images of Israeli targets.

That is what Iran really wants Israel to understand.

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Israel's Man on Man Against Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 9, 2014

I've Been thinking:

The Israeli Air Force stuck and hit Abdullah Harti this morning in Gaza.

Harti was riding a motorcycle and the missile that hit him was probably shot from an unmanned drone.

According to IDF and Shin Bet sources, Harti was a major leader in Global Jihad and is the person responsible for the increased rocket fire from Gaza into Israel these past few weeks.

Sources also say that Harti was instrumental in the deadly August 18, 2011 terror attack near Eilat. The attack killed six people and injured another twenty five. It was perpetrated by twelve terrorists who divided into four groups. The terrorists came from Egypt and then returned there.

Until his death this morning, Abdullah Harti was still a major force sending weapons and terrorists into the Sinai desert.

This type of targeted strike by Israel is a move towards man-on-man defense. As opposed to targeting weapons launchers, weapons labs and weapons depots the Israelis are focused on targeting the leaders responsible for the weapons, attacks and acts of terror.

Israel employed this style of targeting several years ago and it proved to be a very effective defensive tool.

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Iranian Ships On Way to US Atlantic Coast
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has sent several naval war ships in the direction of the United States. The Iranians intend on patrolling the Atlantic. They are sending a message to the United States just like the message the United States sends to Iran by having US fleets patrolling near Iran.

Admiral Afshin Rezayee Haddad, commander of Iran's Northern fleet, said in the official IRNA news agency report that the Iranian ships are on their way to the Atlantic Ocean via waters near South Africa.
"The Iranian Army's naval fleets have already started their voyage towards the Atlantic Ocean via the waters near South Africa," Haddad announced on Saturday.

In Fars, another official Iranian media outlet, the admiral said that "Iran's military fleet is approaching the United States' maritime borders, and this move has a message."

Ynet, an Israeli internet news site, reported that: "The fleet, consisting of a destroyer and a helicopter-carrying supply ship, began its voyage last month from the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. The ships, carrying some 30 navy academy cadets for training along with their regular crews, are on a three-month mission."

I have been writing about this for some time. It is just a matter of time before the Iranians break through this glass ceiling.

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Turkey Squashes Free the Web
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I have been watching Turkey very carefully over the past 36 months.
And I have been following more than one frightening move on the part of the Turkish government vis a vis civil rights and individual rights.

In short, over the past year and a half in Turkey, there have been major challenges to democratic values and individual rights.

Yesterday another such incident occurred, only this time, it was bigger and more egregious than almost every other violation.

The Turkish Parliament approved a law that permits the Communications Authority to block websites for whatever reason they deem necessary. In addition, it requires the web and service providers to track and record data about online users.

The kicker is that the information must be turned over to the government upon request. This is a major step back in terms of media and freedom of information.

Now I will watch and see if anyone gets upset about this huge and unprecedented violation of privacy.

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NYT Finally Sees True Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, The New York Times has printed clear coverage of events in Syria.

Granted, a few months ago the paper covered the fact that the rebels were not all nice and that they too, like Assad, were perpetrating horrific atrocities. And they did run stories about how many of the rebels were al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliates.

But by and large the coverage of Syria in The New York Times has shown the evils of Assad and the merits of ousting him in favor of the rebels.

And then yesterday, at long last, the NYT ran an entire page covering the story in more depth and with greater understanding than they have since the civil war began nearly three years ago.

They ran a story explaining that the US now sees that Assad is getting stronger. They also ran a story reporting that the UN says that both sides in Syria have been brutal and have perpetrated, awful, brutal acts that are in violation of the international rules of war.

The NYT had fallen victim to an unfortunate US bias. The inclination of the United States is to oust evil dictators. They hope that their wishes will come true - the reality is that they usually do not.

Media outlets, like The New York Times, proclaim their objectives and wish the results into reality. In this case they did not get their wish.

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French Comic Banned in UK
By Micah Halpern

Blog
Wednesday February 5, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

England has banned the French comedian Dieudonne from entering the country. The reason given for preventing entry of the entertainer into England is public safety.

Dieudonne has been convicted, on multiple occasions, of hate speech and anti-Semitism. He is the mastermind behind and the creator of the quenelle - the reverse Nazi salute. He was coming to England to perform a show and to show support for his friend Anelka, a former Frenchman professional soccer player who performed the quenelle after scoring a goal in December. Anelka was disciplined for the act.

An official government spokesperson said, "The home secretary (Theresa May) will seek to exclude an individual from the UK if she considers that there are public policy or public security reasons to do so."

Dieudonne was performing in Switzerland when he received the news. His response was to shout the Queen's name and give her the quenelle.

The obvious issues of free speech arise. And yet, both France and England are satisfied that there is a greater risk to public safety- than freedom of speech.

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Iran is Launching More Satellites
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is prepping to launch another handful of satellites into space. The satellites are all domestically produced.

IRNA, an official Iranian news agency, reported that Iran will launch the satellites into space before the end of the Persian year which ends on March 21st.

The head of the Iranian space agency, Hamid Faveli, was the main source cited in the article. Faveli explained that one on the satellites will be a communication satellite which will improve secure wireless connections throughout the country and the region.
Another satellite will be a photographic satellite that can take pictures with 100 meter resolution.

In December Iran claimed to have successfully launched a monkey into space and that the monkey returned to earth healthy. This was their second attempt - the first attempt, a year earlier, resulted in the death of the space monkey.

There are numerous reasons for these announcements.

Most importantly is to show that Iran is racing ahead in high technology. And, make no mistake about it, that technology includes weapons.

The second is to show that just like we spy on Iran, Iran can spy on us. They are using similar, yet independently developed, technology.

Iran is not some backward state. Iran is a highly sophisticated, cultured and educated society. It would behoove us to understand that.

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US & Iran Meet Face to Face
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry met face to face with Iranian Foreign Minister Javed Zarif in Munich on Sunday. It was a very rare moment.

Both men were in Zurich for a security conference and took time out to speak about the future of the nuclear talks with Iran.

Up until now there has been a major bone of contention about what is expected from Iran. The supposed 30 page agreement has been kept secret, so we do not know who is telling the truth.

Talks are scheduled to resume in Vienna on February 18.

As of now Iran is very hopeful. Iranians are saying that they do not need to break down any nuclear technology, just limit their enrichment. The United States is saying that Iran must reduce their nuclear infrastructure.

What I would have given to be a fly on the wall and listen to that conversation.

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Israel's Emergency Gas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is always in a state of emergency. That is a reality. Most of the time, we think Israel's emergencies concern safety and security. Truth is, the state of Israel's energy is another, large, all consuming concern.

Does Israel have enough electricity?

Israel's electricity is generated by natural gas. The gas powers the turbines that generate the electricity that lights up the country and keeps it functioning.

In order to avoid crisis, Israel has positioned a permanent liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker off the coast. When the need arises, it dumps the liquid into an underwater pipeline that feeds directly into the country's electric resources.

The tanker holds 138,000 cubic meters of LNG. After it is converted to gas and sent to the turbines, the tanker can produce 3000 megawatt hours of electricity --- which is enough to power 20% of Israel's total energy needs for one week.

The tanker and the buoy it is connected to when it delivers the gas is a way of keeping Israel safe. The tanker is always there and it is always filled. During the recent snowstorm that crippled the country the tanker deposited its gas and Israelis did not even feel that they were in a state of energy crisis.

The tanker costs $100 million and each load costs about $50 million. It is a small price to pay considering what would happen if the country went without electricity for even a fraction of an hour.

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Terrorists Returning from Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 31, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Washington Post just ran a story about an issue that has been troubling many of us for the past three years. What will happen in Europe after the foreign fighters in Syria return home?

A growing number of rebel fighters in Syria, men fighting against Bashar Assad, are from Europe. They are members of al Qaeda. Not only are these fighter receiving important operational fighting experience, they are also becoming more and more virulent in their ideology.

Many fighters have been killed in the Syrian civil war and many more will die. France estimates that 700 Frenchmen are currently fighting for al Qaeda against Assad in Syria. Many of them will come home.

Great Britain arrested 14 Brits entering England last month upon their return from Syria. They estimate that there are 50 former rebel al Qaeda fighters already back home in England.

Country by country the list goes, all of them trained terrorists.
All of them deeply committed to their extremist cause. And all with easy access to roam free in their homelands. They know the language and its nuances, it is their language. They know the community - they are from the community.

They are a ticking bomb. It is just a matter of time before they unleash their extremist, ideological, acts of violence and terror against their hosts, their homes, their country.

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Threats to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 30, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The head of Military Intelligence for Israel, General Aviv Kochavi, addressed a security conference recently. Whenever that happens we sit up and pay very close attention.

Kochavi explained that because of the Syrian civil war, al Qaeda is now spread all over the region. And that, he said, has a very negative impact on security.

He also said that while the number of rockets pointed at Israel has reduced in number, their quality and accuracy has improved.

"Some 170,000 rockets and missiles are threatening the State of Israel from all regions. Up until recently, the number was much greater and it has decreased, but it will go up again."

"They are much more precise and a lot more lethal. The most significant thing we would like to point out is the fact that the enemy has the capability to land mass amounts of arms on Israeli cities."

"There are also many terror groups, including semi-military terror groups. We can't keep referring to Hezbollah as a terror group in the simple sense of the term - an organization that possesses more than a 100,000 rockets, including hundreds of different kinds of advanced antitank missiles, advanced mortar shells can no longer be a referred to as a terror group in the simple sense of the term. And the same goes for Hamas ."

General Kochavi was typically realistic when speaking about cyber warfare. He said Israelis are constantly being attacked: "Fortunately, most attacks were foiled, but the ability to carry out such attacks is almost unlimited."

The state of Israel's security is very good - but it is clear that the country faces significant, constant, unending threats.

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In Paris 17000 Shout "Jews Get Out"
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 29, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday 17,000 anti-Semites marched through the streets of Paris.
And they shouted: "Jews Get Out," and "Jews Go Home" and "Auschwitz and the Gas Chambers Never Existed" and "France is Not For You - Jews" and "France is Not Your Country."

The marchers also used the "quenelle", the now infamous reverse Nazi salute created by French political comedian Dieudonne M'bala M'bala, which has become more and more popular among the new breed of anti-Semites in Europe and even, in America.

Did you read about it? Did you hear about it? Why did this hateful march receive almost no coverage in the United States? I want to know why.

France was one of the most Western and most liberal societies in the world. France is where the modern free state was created and where Jews and everyone else were first emancipated and given complete rights as citizens with total freedom.

Why was this massive act of racism barely mentioned in the US media? It took days for it to even appear on relevant websites.

I refuse to believe that people just do not care. There must be other reasons.

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Syrian Conference - No Progress
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 28, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

They called it, appropriately, the Dialogue of the Deaf.

That is the name given to the discussion about Syrian in Geneva.
The entire event broke up yesterday after an hour of hot and heavy shouting.

Of course it did!!!

There was total disagreement about the future of Syria. There was disagreement over whether Bashar Assad should stay in power or graciously leave his position as president. The rebels wanted him to leave and establish an interim government before the elections. Assad's representatives said absolutely not - no way, no how.

They could not even agree to disagree.

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Israel Defense Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 27, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

According to a report by the private security firm Seculert, 15 Israeli defense computers were hacked and taken over by a aggressor for several days.

The Israeli establishment has made no comment.

The report says that 15 civil service computers were hacked. The computers were part of the agency in charge of Palestinian movements into and out of Israel, they are the division that issues passes for Palestinians to enter Israel.

The malware was XtremeRat. This is the second time in two years that this particular malware has gotten a foothold into Israeli defense computers. It was probably accomplishes by the same hacker on both occasions.

XtremeRat got into the system masquerading as a Shin Bet email about the death of Ariel Sharon. The email was sent on January 15. It fooled many of the security systems, anti virus and spyware allowing the hacker to inject new Trojans, inject new commands, steal info and infect other computers.

Seculert 15 created a sink hole and the XtremeRat was tricked into entering the sinkhole where it roamed around in a controlled and protected space.

This is just the beginning. The server that hosted the original message was from the United States. But the coding was very similar to that used for a cyber attack on Israel from Gaza in October of 2012.

More attacks are on the way.

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New Election Timetable in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 26, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

This morning in Egypt Adly Mansour, the interim president of Egypt, announced that presidential elections will precede the parliamentary elections.

This fact that this announcement comes the week of the referendum on the new charter that was overwhelmingly supported by those who voted, is significant.

The most important issue here is that according to the earlier transition schedule, known as the transition timetable, parliamentary elections were supposed to come before the presidential elections.

In Egypt, these last few days have been very violent and very bloody.

The Muslim Brotherhood is attempting to galvanize the people and move them into the street to try to prevent the interim government from proceeding with their stated goal.

Al Sisi has stepped down as Army chief of staff. Now he is preparing to run for president. It is not clear how free these elections will be. It is widely assumed in Egypt - by just about everyone, that Sisi will be the next president.

I can tell you with almost complete certainty that, this time, the Muslim Brotherhood will not be permitted to stand a candidate for election.

Egypt has learned its lesson. The hard way.

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Some Details of the Peace Deal
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 25, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Details on the Israeli Palestinian discussions have been under wraps.

We do know that the Israelis were unhappy with some of the suggestions proposed by US Secretary of State John Kerry. It has also been made very clear that the Palestinians are frustrated and feel as if the United States was adopting the Israeli position in the negotiations.

But recently the Palestinian magazine Tariq ran an in depth and extremely candid interview with Palestinian negotiator Yasser Abed Rabbo during which he delineates much of the US proposal.

According to Abed Rabbo, the US plan calls for a staged process of Israeli security withdrawal linked to increased effectiveness in Palestinian security. Israel would be the evaluator determining if Palestinian security is effective.

Additionally, Israel would maintain mountain top and aerial monitoring over the Palestinian areas and have the ability to follow - in hot pursuit, inside Palestinian territory.

About Jerusalem, either the Arab neighborhood of Abu Dis or the neighborhood of Kfar Aqab would be called the Palestinian capital.
Palestinians had hoped for much more.

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PA -Russia $Billion Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 24, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians and the Russians have signed a deal.

Russia will give $1 billion to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for PA help in exploring for natural gas off the coast of Gaza.

Russia would then get dibs on part of the gas if any is discovered.

Aside from the obvious and much needed injection of money into the PA, there are several huge benefits to this deal.

By partnering with Russia the Palestinians have lessened their dependence on US aid. That means they are less beholding to and consequently, not required to, toe the US line.

This new agreement will enable the Palestinians - it will boost the psyche of every individual Palestinian and it will move the Palestinians closer towards independence.

It is not good news for the United States and it is not good news for Secretary of State John Kerry who has begun to apply pressure on the Palestinians to move towards peace with Israel on US terms.

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The Great Fire Wall Of China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 23, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

10's of millions ... maybe even 100's of millions ...it is just a guess ... that's how many Chinese lost access to the Internet on Tuesday.

Whenever you talk about numbers and the Internet in China it is all just a guess. But assume that it was a gargantuan, even a Malthusian number of people who were redirected from their intended sites to other sites.

The Chinese restrict freedom of the Internet. Their web is so censured that we jokingly refer to their system of web control as "The Great Fire-Wall of China."

Tuesday's debacle was probably orchestrated by hackers who hate the Chinese wall. The result was that users were sent to an illegal and highly censured site owned by a US company.

The US company DIT confirmed that they own the site but said that they did not hack China. Instead they offered a plausible explanation. DIT said that it was probably due to an accidental mis-configuration of the Chinese fire wall.

The firewall normally redirects requests to sites that are Chinese friendly. This time all the unfriendly sites were now the destination. Now the forbidden sites were now open to all.

Not surprisingly, this happens pretty often when you try to control information to 1 billion 500 million people. There are 2 million cyber police in China today dedicated to hacking Western sites and keeping that firewall up.

Some days the system works better than others.


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Conference on Syria Will Fail
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 22, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

The Geneva Conference dedicated to creating a resolution in Syria has begun.

The conference has all the necessary components - for dismal failure. Actually, this conference has more of a chance of failure than the peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

How can the conference even hope to succeed when there is not even an agreement on the direction of a resolution? Until now, even agreed upon cease fires have failed to last more than 20 hours.

How are the parties going to adhere to a peace accord or to devising a path that leads to the resolution of a three year old bloodbath?
Ceasefires are child's play relative to the solutions needed here.
Ceasefires were based on religious and calendar dates that were easy to quantify and understand. They ceasefires were seen as goals that all sides could relate to.

A general resolution to the conflict? No way.

Assad is feeling more and more powerful. He is gaining strength and amassing more areas under his control with every passing day. The rebels are on the run - and the rebels are fighting one another.

Believe me, this conference will not yield the end that either the United States or the United Nations hope for.

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Hamas is Trying To Stop Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 21, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A few days ago Hamas enacted a policy to try to prevent rocket fire into Israel.

Over the past week several dozen rockets launched from Gaza and landed in Israel. Israel is retaliating. Now Hamas is afraid that Israel will increase that response. And Israel will definitely increase their response if rockets continue to land.

In order to prevent the escalation Hamas has set up roadblocks on all roads that lead to borders with Israel. They are checking the cars for rockets.

Hamas cannot simply make an announcement - they do not have that kind of control in Gaza. The rockets are being launched by a number of groups and sub groups - and these groups do not profess allegiance to Hamas.

So in order to prevent unnecessary and costly damage, Hamas is trying to be preemptive. Only time will tell if Hamas succeeded in stopping the rockets and preventing the retaliation.

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Israel Returns More Terrorists Bodies
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 20, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is returning another 36 dead terrorists to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

One was returned last night, the others will be transferred over the next two weeks. It brings the number of dead terrorists returned to the Palestinians over this past year to 91. So far, nine bodies were returned to Gaza, the rest were transferred to the PA in the West Bank.

In Israel, the families of the victims murdered by these terrorists are livid. There has been very little publicity and very little press coverage about the transfer and none about the outrage - not even after the Israeli Supreme Court rejected an appeal by the families of the victims to cancel the transfer.

Among those bodies now being returned are the bodies of the terrorists who bombed cafe Hillel in 1993 and those who took over the Savoy Hotel in 1975. It also includes the bodies of the terrorists responsible for the bus bombing that killed 16 in March of 2003.

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Israel Strikes Back
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 19, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has responded to the increased rockets that have been showering them from Gaza.

Over the past week there has been a huge increase in the rocket fire and today the Israelis struck back. With surgical precision Israel launched a missile that critically wounded Ahmed Saad, the 22 year old responsible for launching this last batch of rockets into Israel, as he was riding his motorcycle.

The bike was damaged but not destroyed. The Israelis used just enough explosive in the missile to strike at the motorbike. A 12 year old boy was also moderately wounded in the attack.

Because of the increase of rockets lobbed at them, Israel has also decided to use its new anti-rocket devise, named the "Iron Beam."
The new system is a laser beam that locks on to rockets and destroys them before they land.

The difference between the Iron Beam and the Iron Dome is that the Iron Beam is designed to intercept low flying rockets that do not hit the height trajectory required before the Iron Dome can effectively intercept them.

The low flying rocket has been the Achilles heel of anti-missile batteries. The Iron Beam should be a defensive game changer.

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Bibi Meets Abdullah in Amman
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 17, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu flew to Amman, Jordan yesterday to have a sit down with Jordan's King Abdullah II.

Last week Abdullah hosted Palestinian President Abbas.
We are told that the talks were candid.

According to an official Jordanian report King Abdullah urged Netanyahu to make use of "and build on the opportunity made available by the consolidated efforts of the U.S. secretary of state to achieve tangible progress in the peace negotiations."

The official report continued, stating that the objective is to create an "independent and viable Palestinian state" with East Jerusalem as its capital. The report also revealed that an Israeli Palestinian agreement is in "higher Jordanian interests."

In discussing the negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel the king told the Israeli prime minister: "They are a top priority for us."

The overriding issue is whether the agreement will be practical. I am certain that was the focus of Netanyahu's presentation to Abdullah.

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Egypt & Their Charter
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 16, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There is no real word in Arabic for "constitution".

That is why the word being used to describe the Egyptian Constitution is the Arabic word for "charter". For these purposes, constitution is synonymous with charter. The word "charter" comes from the Latin word "carta" which means map and as we all know, the founding document of England is the Magna Carta.

160,000 soldiers and 200,000 police officers were deployed to preserve the peace during the two day election period for the new Egyptian Constitution that ended in Egypt yesterday. On the first day of voting, 9 people died in election violence. On the second day at least 79 pro-Morsi protesters were arrested.

Commenting on the election, the head of public relations for the interior ministry, Major General Abdel Fattah Othman, said that the "turnout so far may exceed 55% and the approval of the constitution is perhaps more than 95%." His interview was broadcast on private satellite channel Al-Hayat.

Duh! People who came out to vote came to vote in favor of the Charter. There was no alternative. The joke was that either you went and voted for the charter, or you went to jail.

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Poles Do Not See Anti-Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 15, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is a basic rule of civilized society. When thugs and football hooligans shout anti-Semitic epithets it is our duty to condemn the slurs as base and unacceptable.

In any sport, even in soccer matches, racism is totally unacceptable.

Poland is no exception. In fact, Poland has a set of laws prohibiting racism. Those laws include a prohibition against the dissemination of racial slurs. So why then have Poland and Polish official prosecutors decided to justify the racism in their midst?

When the home team in Poznan, Poland, started shouting: "Go Jews, Get out, Go to Auschwitz" the local prosecutor determined that those shouts, that sentiment, was not an anti-Semitic slur.

Even when the slogans continued with the added verse: "send you to the gas chamber," the prosecutor did not think that it was racist.
His rationale was baffling. The prosecutor reasoned that the shouts were levied against the other team Widzew, Lodz and that there were no Jews on the other teams or, for that matter, anywhere in the Stadium.

This incident would not be so noteworthy if were an isolated occurrence. It is not.

In the city of Lublin, the home of Tomasz Pietrasiewicz was recently vandalized. Bricks with swastikas were thrown threw his windows.
He is not Jewish but he is deeply involved with Jews and publicly advocates for and teaches about the rich Jewish history of Lublin.

Here, too, the local prosecutor chose not to file racist charges against the hoodlums because Pietrasiewicz is not a Jew.

And in Bialystok people spreading leaflets with swastikas were not prosecuted. To add insult to injury, the prosecutor added that the swastika is an ancient Hindu symbol - not just the sign of the Nazis.

If this were not so sad, it would be funny. Do intelligent people actually believe that anti-Semitism exists only in the presence of Jews? Do they really believe that in the world today anybody sees any other realistic symbolism for the swastika other than Nazism? The Nazis themselves were unaware of the Hindu derivation.

Football hooligans must be held accountable. The clubs know that and they banish teams that violate the rules. If the prosecution does not get it then the home team should take a stand.

Anti-Semitism cannot be ignored. No form of racism should go unpunished.

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US - Iran - Russia Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 14, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are some rather out of the ordinary interactions happening of late between Iran, the United States and Russia.

The United States is deeply concerned about an oil for goods barter involving Iran and Russia. The deal would allow for a $1.5 billion monthly swap.

According to the White House, US Secretary of State John Kerry shared the US concern directly with his colleague, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on Monday when the two were in Paris working out the details of a conference on Syria which is scheduled to take place on January 22.

The biggest worry is that this barter could be considered a violation of the P5+1 agreement with Iran. If it is, it could trigger new US sanctions against Iran, sanctions that Congress has already prepared - just in case of a scenario like this.
If this barter deal goes through, everything everybody has been working so hard for could just fall apart. But Kerry is hopeful.

Kerry is also generous. He gave Lavrov a special present in a modest size box yesterday. It was a box of 2 Idaho potatoes. While speaking during the break Lavrov mentioned his love of the Idaho potatoes, so Kerry gave him a few.

We are told that there is no symbolism there. No symbolism at all. I do not care if this is or there isn't, but if there is - I don't see it.

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Assad Visits Mosque
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 13, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past 3 years, since the fighting in Syria began, President Bashar Assad has ventured out in public only a handful of times.

There was always an important reason for the public appearances.
Often, they included a trip to a mosque. But the real purpose of appearing in public is to say that I am still in Damascus and I am the man in charge. Assad needs everyone, allies and enemies alike, to know that the conflict did not shake him.

So yesterday, on Sunday, Assad went to prayers at the al Hamad Mosque in northwest Damascus. The trip was broadcast across the Arab world, most especially on Syrian state-sponsored TV.

To all appearances Assad went to the al Hamad Mosque to celebrate the traditional birthday of Mohammed. In reality Assad was saying that the end is in sight, that the rebels have crumbled and that the country is getting quieter.

Assad was saying that although there are still areas withering away by virtue of violence, the conflict will soon be over. He was saying that the rebels are fighting amongst themselves and his supporters and troops will soon secure the entire country. And even though a few pockets of rebels may continue to exist in Syria, the country is his to once again preside over. Totally and completely.

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Egypt Votes This Week
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 12, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

I'll bet almost nobody knows that last Thursday, Egyptian expats living all over the world were able to vote on the new proposed Egyptian constitution.

And on January 14 and 15 the entire country of Egypt will vote on the constitution as a referendum.

While it is undeniable that there have been violent clashes recently in Egypt and it is true that the Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed in Egypt, strange as it may seem, all of it has been done in the name of democracy. Democracy must prevent non-democratic forces from taking over which is exactly what happened when Morsi was elected - and Egyptian leaders today are determined to see democracy thrive in their country.

The proposed constitution is called a draft charter. It uses moderate Islam as a foundation for legislation.

Interim President Adly Mansour has been on national Egyptian radio and television urging people to come out and vote for the referendum and to "lead the ship of the nation to the shores of safety."

An Arab country like Egypt needs to have a constitution and that constitution needs to be loosely based on Islamic tradition. Egypt cannot be a secular society, it must try to marry the valued and essential traditions of Islam with modern democratic rights.

Sounds easy ... but turning theory into a reality will be very difficult, especially as Islamic tradition confronts modern human rights.

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Ariel Sharon is Dead
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 11, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Ariel Sharon is dead.

Since his stroke in 2006 the former prime minister of Israel has been nonresponsive. Even though he has been gone for nearly eight years, now is the time when Israel and the world must say their final goodbyes.

Everyone had an opinion about Ariel Sharon. No one was indifferent about him. You either liked him or hated him - nationally and internationally. To Sharon it made no difference, his actions and decisions were based on his own convictions, not a desire to either please or to enrage others.

Ariel Sharon was a great warrior and he was a great politician.
Seldom are politicians so simple and so direct, Sharon was different because Sharon approached politics like he approached war.

Sharon was very easy to understand. His priorities were simple and clear on every level. He never minced words. He was a pragmatist.
He achieved his goals by placing them in priority order and then attacking them one by one.

Most of all, Ariel Sharon was a master tactician - in that arena, he was truly unparalleled.

The overarching goal of Ariel Sharon at every level - prime minister, defense minister, member of Knesset, author, private citizen, land owner and farmer - was the protection of Israel.

The word of Sharon was his promise, and yet, he was a man of action, not words. Part of his appeal for the Israeli public was that people believed that Ariel Sharon would deliver on his word. And he did.

Surely there was much controversy in his life and surrounding his career and I do not know how history will treat Ariel Sharon. But I do know that the world, not just Israel, not just the Middle East, the world has lost a great man, a true hero. May his memory be blessed.

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Iranians in The IDF
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 10, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

It is not rocket science but it is very important - and Israel is trying its best to take advantage and make the most of it.

What am I talking about? Here it is: BaMachaneh, the IDF magazine, printed a story that is not only very interesting, but also very unusual for them. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) never releases figures, but here they did.

According to the magazine each year fifty Iranian-born Israeli boys enter the army. The army is trying to move these soldiers into intelligence units and keep them "in" as long as possible. The article also reports that 23% of Iranian-Israeli girls join the army and within that group, 33% of the girls join intelligence units. That is an astounding number and it is even higher than the statistic for the males which is about 20%.

Every year about 100 Iranians arrive in Israel. They all arrive via a third country.

The upside is that these young people have language and familiarity with Iran which is unequaled. The downside is that they are young and have never been trained in how to really see and analyze raw data. For that, they need to be trained from scratch.

This Iranian intelligence force in Israel is a very powerful weapon. There is almost no chance that any of these young men and women are double agents. The Iranian Jewish community is too small and there is no amount of money that would tempt an Iranian Jew to betray his Jewish family.

Israeli intelligence is ions above other countries because of this very valuable human asset.

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Arabs Do Not Want to Join the PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 9, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

They used to be called Israeli Arabs. Then they became Palestinians living in Israel and sometimes they were called Palestinians with privileges. Now they are just called Palestinians.

All these names refer to Palestinians who are also Israeli citizens.

The topic has emerged again as peace discussions dealing with land swaps come up for negotiation. The idea is that certain places on the Israeli side of the '67 border will be swapped for certain places of on the Palestinian side of the border.

Recently Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman suggested that the Wadi Ara area which is the area of Um al Fahm also known as the triangle would be the perfect place to swap.

The entire area is Arab and it abuts the West Bank. The area gained notoriety as a major center of Naqba protests against Israel. Naqba means the tragedy corresponding to Israel's Independence in May of 1948.

And yet, all those residents of Wadi Ara who have been interviewed absolutely reject any idea of living under the Palestinian Authority.

They do not want to exchange freedom for corruption.

They do not want to give up their Israeli privileges - especially health care, education and accountability, law and safety.

They do not want to give up all that is taken as a given in Israel and will most certainly be lost in the Palestinian Authority. They want to continue living in Israel and reside under Israeli law.

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UN Doesn't Count Victims in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 8, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There are signs of change that we look at to determine if solutions are on the horizon.

The Geneva Conference about Syria is one of those signs, it is a good sign. The disagreement between the United States and Iran as to how involved Iran should be in any resolution undertaken at that conference is another good sign. And the fact that Iran and the US both recognize that they are confronting similar Sunni radical movements is a third good sign.

A bad sign, in fact a very bad sign, is that the United Nations Commission for Human Rights has officially announced that they are no longer keeping track of the victims of the Syrian crisis. They stopped totaling the figures in July, when the number of victims hit the 100,000 mark.

Rupert Colville, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, explained that they just cannot verify the sources and so, they cannot even speculate on the numbers. Until they stopped tallying, the Commission based their estimation on six different sources and reports that were made available to them.

But all of the sources were biased - it was always a guessing game.

The problem with not even trying to determine the number of victims in the Syrian crisis is the message that is being sent out. The message is that the numbers do not count and once the numbers do not count the lives do not count. And for a crisis like the conflict overtaking Syria --- that is the wrong message.

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Egypt Shuts Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 7, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt destroyed eight tunnels running between Gaza and Egypt in the area of Rafah. The tunnels are used for smuggling everything from weapons to construction materials.

The Palestinian news agency Ma'an reported that the Egyptians also arrested 24 people who worked in the tunnels and in a warehouse which housed explosives and other weapons. The warehouse was in the Northern Sinai, abutting the Gaza Strip.

Egypt has increased their vigilance in trying to shut down the tunnels and the movement of weapons and explosives in and out of Gaza. Those weapons and people often take up arms with the Muslim Brotherhood and attack Egyptian targets.

There has been a huge recent increase of attacks in Sinai and the Egyptians have received special permission to abrogate their peace treaty with Israel and bring their own military into the Sinai. The Peace Accords between Egypt and Israel very clearly specify that Egypt may not militarize the Sinai, but in this case the Egyptians need to bring in the army to prevent a terrorist takeover. Israel understands and agrees.

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Golan On Alert
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 6, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

There was a recent report of footprints crossing the border in the Golan Heights.

The entire area went into alert to find potential terrorist infiltrators.

In the 1970's and 80's this used to happen more often, it was a common occurrence. Sometimes the tracks were cows in search of pasture. Sometimes a terrorist sat on top of the cattle. Sometimes the footsteps belonged to drug suppliers coming from Syria and Lebanon into Israel.

This was a real set of tracks crossing from Syria into Israel. And with increased al Qaeda involvement in Syria, Israel takes these tracks very seriously.

There is no doubt that the conflict in Syria has destabilized the region. There has been spill over into Lebanon, into Iraq, into Jordan and into Turkey. It will spill over into Israel - it is just a matter of time.

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Watch How Arabs Treat Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 4, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Paying attention to how Arabs relate to other Arabs can be instructive.

Tunisia is sponsoring an Anti-Zionism Conference. Not unusual.
Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad were prevented from entering. Unusual.

Al Mayadeen, a Hezbollah TV network in Lebanon, reported today that the Hezbollah delegation was not permitted to enter the hall where the Anti-Zionism conference was taking place.

And the Islamic Jihad group was prevented from landing in Tunis.
The story was picked up by several other media outlets.

Why were Hezbollah and barred? The answer is simple.

Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad of Lebanon have sided with Assad and with Iran. And that makes them pariahs in the Arab world - even when it comes to the hatred of Zionism.

Now that is interesting.

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Yr of Jewish Strength Says Egypt Astrologist
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 3, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

Astrology is the craze in many parts of the world - like in Egypt, where people believe that the future can be seen in the alignment of the stars and constellations.

Sayyed al Shimi, one of Egypt's most popular astrologers, appeared on Egyptian national television as part of a year-end round-up for 2013 and to offer predictions for 2014.

During his prediction segment al Shimi warned that in 2014 the Jews will "grow stronger." He explained that it is a historical reality that in the past, when the stars have been in just such an alignment, the Jews have been greatly successful.

"We discovered that Saturn entered the fire sign of Sagittarius when the first World Zionist Congress convened. The Balfour Declaration was released when Saturn was in the fire sign of Leo. The Haganah Brigades [the pre-1948 Jewish defense force] began organizing and helping the English in 1928, when Saturn was in the fire sign of Sagittarius. The 1948 war took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Leo. The 1956 war took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Sagittarius. The 1967 War took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Aries."

"Between 1963 and1967 my late father warned in his annual reports:
'Beware, Saturn will enter the sign of Aries in 1967 and this means that the Jews will grow stronger, just like in 1956 and in 1948.'
'Beware,' he said, 'something is about to happen.' But they refused to believe him."

Personally, I would never argue with the stars. And I am glad that even the Egyptians see that Israel and the Jews are powerful and will be even more powerful. Let them continue to believe that 2014 will be a year of Jewish great strength.

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New Poll on 2 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 2, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

A new study about a Two State Solution was just released. The results of the study should surprise all those who think that the two-state-solution is dead in the water.

The study certainly surprised me. For two years now I have been saying that there is no will on either the Israeli or the Palestinians side for a two-state-solution, that each side is content to live with the current status quo.

Then comes this study which says that 63% of Israelis and 53% of Palestinians answered favorably to questions supporting a two-state-solution. The numbers dropped by 10% in both communities after details were added to the questions, especially details about settlements.

Each community was polled by pollsters from their own community.
Israelis were polled by the Hebrew University who asked 601 people and had a 4.5% degree of error. Palestinians were polled by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research who asked 1270 people and their margin of error was 3.0%

Granted, this is not a ringing endorsement for the two-state-solution, but neither is it a total rejection of the proposal.

Several significant sectors within the Israeli government are on record rejecting the two-state-solution. In addition, it is pretty clear that Palestinian leaders have never embraced the idea. And for the past two years we have been under the assumption that the masses on both sides had no faith in having a two-state-solution.

This study shows us that even now, or perhaps, especially now there is a critical mass of over 50% of Israelis and of Palestinians that can be used to sway the process if a good deal emerges from the Kerry talks.

That's leverage.

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Kerry Back To Push Both Sides
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 1, 2014

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry will be returning to the Middle East on Thursday. He will meet with both the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas revealed his strategy for the Kerry meeting when he welcomed back the Palestinian prisoners recently released from Israeli prison. Abbas made the point that his main objective is to secure the release of all prisoners.

Abbas said "this won't be the last time that prisoners are freed," and "there won't be a final agreement with Israel until all the prisoners are released."

The Palestinian leader was also very clear about his take on the Jordan River Valley. Abbas said "this is our land, and it will remain that way. This a red line on our part."

Abbas will secure his legacy in Palestinian history by forcing Israel to release prisoners. The Jordan Valley is actually less about the land than it is about the border. For Abbas and the Palestinians it is a practical issue, they are concerned about securing a border with Jordan.

Kerry will have his work cut out for him.

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Lebanese TV Lampoons Nasrallah
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As I think back over the past 12 months I find that one of the funniest and at the same time one of the boldest moves in the Middle East was made by LBC, the Lebanese Broadcasting Company, a private network that broadcasts from Beirut.

Every Friday night LBC airs a regular comedy show that pokes fun at the situation in Lebanon and the whole Middle East. Most of their comedy is simple imitation and role playing. The name of the Friday night show is in itself a play on words. It is called Bas Mat Watan which means the Homeland's Laughter, but it sounds very similar to Bas Met Watan which means the homeland is dying.

One particular episode in November depicted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It was a hilarious lampoon of the Shiites radical cleric. Nothing of this kind had performed on air since 2006 and undertaking this parody took a great deal of courage - even in free thinking Lebanon. People have been assassinated for much less.

The show caused riots and a huge tidal wave of activity on twitter.
Some said that it was inappropriate to mock a cleric. Supporters of the show said that Nasrallah was fair game because he was a political figure and was no different from any other politician they lampoon. Besides, supporters said, this program impersonates religious leaders all the time.

Until November LBC was too afraid of the repercussions to touch Nasrallah. The reason they felt enabled to rake him over the proverbial coals of television comedy is that as the conflict spilled over into Lebanon and more Lebanese lives were lost, they finally felt comfortable challenging Hezbollah's involvement in Syria and its impact on Lebanon.

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Iran Passed a Pro Nuke Bill
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian parliament just passed a bill for which over two-thirds of the members voted in favor of catapulting their nuclear development if the US Congress passes any new boycott legislation.

The Iranian press is filled with coverage of the dramatic change of heart in Iran. Since the last time they were asked, there has been a 100% shift in the Iranian parliament.

This Iranian bill will permit uranium enrichment to 60% and even 90%, whereas the agreement caps it at 20%. In addition, the bill allows for the heavy water nuclear plant at Arak to continue to be built.

The legislation the Iranians are concerned about is referred to as "Standby Sanctions" in the corridors of power in Washington DC. Congress wants the sanctions bills in place to allow them the ability to act quickly if the six month interim deal with Iran falls through.

Iran is setting up a counter move. They are saying if you pass a bill we will pass a bill that trumps your bill.

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Saudis Give Lebanon 3 Billion
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia just gave Lebanon a $3 billion grant to bolster their army.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman announced the aid on Sunday TV. "The king of the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is offering this generous and appreciated aid of $3 billion to the Lebanese army to strengthen its capabilities."

The obvious purpose of the money is to counter the enormous support that Iran gives to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That support has a huge impact on everything that happens in Syria.

If the Saudis successfully strengthen the Lebanese army it can influence the facts on the ground in Lebanon, in Syria and even - by extension, Israel. A stronger army in Lebanon will also, hopefully, prevent the violence overtaking Syria from spilling over into Lebanon.

The biggest however, is that giving money and buying better and bigger weapons does not necessarily make for a better army.

Hezbollah is disciplined and well trained. They are also well armed. Unless the Lebanese army is better trained and better motivated than Hezbollah, there is a strong possibility that
Hezbollah will capture many of the new weapons that Saudi Arabia will be giving to Lebanon.

If that happens the $3 billion gift will turn into one explosive backfire.

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Iran is a Compilcated Game
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Just look at how complicated the Iranian issue is.

On Monday talks will resume between Iran and the P5+1 in Geneva.

The talks were put on hold for Christmas. People are hopeful.

Yesterday Iran called for direct talks between the United States and Iran to try and start a new era, a new relationship.

But --- also yesterday ---

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, said that Iran is producing a new generation of centrifuges "and another round of tests will be made before proceeding to mass production."

Salehi said that Iran now has 19,000 centrifuges and is "able to produce its own nuclear fuel."

Spokesman for the agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi, said that these new centrifuges and new developments will improve Iranian production and enrichment capacity.

This, he added, is not a violation of the deal which forbids further production for 6 months - not improvement.

And the games continue.

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New Nazi Salute is a Rage
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I have not been this disturbed by a news item or event in a very long time.

Yesterday I spent several hours researching and investigating a new symbol of blatant and despicable Anti-Semitism. It is called QUENELLE. A quenelle is a French pastry. But this is neither sweet nor tasteful. This quenelle is a reverse Nazi salute.

The rise of the quenelle has been seen primarily in France, its place of origin. So far it has been perpetrated almost exclusively by the French - even when they leave France. It is all over the internet and Facebook. People take pictures of themselves doing the quenelle in popular and very inappropriate locales - individually and en masse.

It is illegal in France to use Nazi symbols or to inspire anti-Semitism. Changing the Nazi salute and inverting it by placing one hand downward while the other arm crosses the body is a way around the law.

I have added 2 hyper links to a 3 minute Youtube video and a YNET article showing pictures of neo Nazis doing the quenelle salute in front of synagogues, at Holocaust memorials and outside the notorious massive death camp Auschwitz/Birkenau. They are even seen at the Western Wall and posing with smiling Israeli soldiers oblivious to what is really being perpetrated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxlQK0g2kSk

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4464336,00.html

Once you understand what is happening, you will find this fast growing trend as frightening as I do.

The French are taking this seriously. French leadership is talking about ways to control the quenelle movement. In the meantime, the movement grows and spreads its Anti-Semitic message.

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Pollard Has A Small Chance
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There is a better chance now than there has been in a very long time that Jonathan Pollard may be freed.

Now that Prism, the NSA program made public by Edward Snowden, outted the United Sttaes for spying on Israel at the highest level, Israel is hoping to use the information as leverage with which to free Pollard.

Israel is attaching Pollard to the Palestinian peace process. They hope to link concessions that they make to the Palestinians - concessions that will appease the United States - with progress on the Pollard front.

Israel will push the US about the double standard. You can spy on us and we can't spy on you? We were caught years ago, you were caught now. We will drop the issue if you let our spy go.

Another important factor in this equation is President Obama who, until now, has not weighed in on Pollard. Fundamentally, Obama is motivated by fairness. He is all about being fair and being equal.
The publicity about the US spying on Israel may provide the impetus he needed to help Pollard.

The stumbling block is the defense establishment. The defense establishment is dead set against it.

The Constitution, however, provides for situations such as the one Pollard is embroiled in and the Constitution put the decision making power totally in the office of the president.

It is written in Article II, Section 2, Clause 1:
"and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

Since 1900, 20,000 presidential pardons have been issued. A pardon is not the only option. Vacating the verdict, clemency or commuting the sentence all fall under the right of the US President.

Now that Israel has assumed responsibility for Pollard (which for years they denied) swaps can occur. Recently, a US citizen was returned from Russia in exchange for several Russians and other things that Russia wanted. If Israel successfully applies the necessary pressure and the United States wants to play along Pollard can be freed through any number of scenarios.

In the end Israel is fighting for Pollard because of an essential Jewish principle: one does not leave captives. Jonathan Pollard has done his time. And I can honestly say that at this historical juncture, Israel is willing to pay dearly for his release.

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A New Intifada?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a serious rise in violence in the West Bank over the past few weeks. The IDF, the police and intelligence service have begun to call it a mini intifada or uprising

Actually, no one wants to even use the word because of its historical resonance, but, given the events, it seems both appropriate and accurate. In fact, several factors are emerging signaling that a full blown intifada might be on the way.

Over the past few months there have been several hundred small acts of violence in the West Bank. This past week the incidents escalated in seriousness. There were three large incidents including the Palestinian sniper who, yesterday, killed an Israeli defense contractor.

Abbas has given a green light to attacks against symbols of the occupation and the situation is getting out of hand. The Palestinian leader hopes to add pressure on Israel to force negotiations - but once out of the bottle, violence will not be easily stemmed or directed.

Frustration on the part of youthful Palestinians, couples with a rejection of the establishment and current PA leadership has resulted in the rise of popularity of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi groups in the West Bank.

These groups are independent of the PA. They are not controlled by Abbas but have received his nod and do not fear PA security forces.
They are beginning to strike Israel on their own.

All this means that at any moment the West Bank could explode. And that does not even take into account the potential of a retaliatory Israeli strike that could easily trigger this new intifada.

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Jesus Was Not A Palestinian
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Enough already.

Arafat used to do it all the time. Present day Palestinian leadership is carrying on the tradition. The Palestinians call Jesus a Palestinian.

In an email he just sent around the world PA President Mahmoud Abbas called Jesus a Palestinian. He wrote Jesus was a "Palestinian messenger who would become a guiding light for millions."

That's like calling Jesus an Israeli. And Jesus was not an Israeli.

Jesus was a Jew - he was not an Israeli and he was not a Palestinian.

Obviously, Islamic leadership cannot call Jesus the "Savior." Interestingly, the Muslim world has great difficulty even calling him "prophet."

In his email, Abbas called Jesus a "messenger" so as not to upset or, even better, to insult Muslim leadership around the world.

Jesus has his place in history. The fact that he does not play a role in Muslim history should not pose a problem. The Palestinians must stop abusing history.

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Iran is A Regional Power
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I read that Italian Foreign Minister Emma Bonino visited Iran and held a press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

The main point of the coverage was to say that any country trying to push Iran out of a position of power in the region, will fail.
Zarif made the following concerning efforts to exclude his country from the Syrian peace talks:

"We believe that the view which prevents Iran from playing a positive role on Syria issue is not realistic."

"We have announced readiness to find a political solution to Syria crisis and to have a constructive and effective presence in Geneva II."

"We hope the efforts (to solve Syria issue) will be based on realities"

Zarif reiterated that if Iran is invited to the talks, it will also take part in the forthcoming conference on Syria.

For her part, the Italian foreign minister responded well. She emphasized Iran's constructive role in the region.

She said: "We want positive presence of Iran in the international conference of Geneva II on Syria crisis."

"Geneva II Conference is the will of the United Nations to solve Syria crisis."

"... all the countries which have influence to stop tragedy in Syria should attend Geneva II Conference."

The only problem with this entire story line is that Iran has a proverbial horse in the race. The Iranians are major players in Syria. Iran has deployed special units of their Revolutionary Guard in Syria. Iran stationed training forces in Syria and the Iranians are sponsors of Hezbollah and of Bashar Assad himself.

Iran controls what happens in Syria. And Iran wants a resolution that meets their own specific goals and vision.

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Friends Spy on Friends
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The sensational headlines should not have come as a surprise to anyone who dabbles even a little in intelligence.

Prism, the NSA program, tapped the phones and computers of Israel's prime minister and senior leadership during meetings. They tapped emails and telephone calls.

The operating assumption is always that your phone and computer are being tapped. No one in a position of power should ever say anything secure on the phone or write anything secure in an email.

All secure messages are delivered face to face and then only in very secure places. Places where lips cannot be read. Even the president of the United States sets up a tent in his hotel room and all documents and important conversations take place inside that tent and away from probing telephoto lenses and prying visual and audio optics.

Computers, cell phones, land lines are all child’s play to intelligence services.

Most memos and conversations do not have to be secret and sometimes information is leaked deliberately in order to create a designed response or to set a plan in motion.

It is not about insult or trust - it is all about knowledge. And knowledge is power.

Sometimes, knowing too much tips your hand. Sometimes, the other side slips and says something that they could only have received from information gleaned from a tap.

That's where the game gets interesting.

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US Senate Condemns Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the US Senate unanimously passed a resolution condemning Iran. The resolution called on Iran to free seven Bahai leaders who have been imprisoned as well as numerous other Bahai leaders who have been illegally held and never even charged.

The resolution reads: The Senate "condemns the government of Iran for its state-sponsored persecution of its Bahai minority and its continued violation of the International Covenants on Human Rights."

The White House has said that these resolutions are "not helpful." They added that this is not the time for resolutions of this nature.

Clearly, even the democrats on Capitol Hill disagree with the president.

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Irony - Israel & the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Irony makes me smile.

Israel is trying to create a full court press on Iran. Each time an Israeli leader has the opportunity, he or she manages to inject comments about keeping the pressure on Iran into their conversation. President Peres does it, Prime Minister Netanyahu does it. Every leader, no matter the party or position, is pounding the pavement to try to convince the world to keep up the pressure on Iran.

Not only are they talking the talk, they Israelis are walking the walk. Israel is using every opportunity to apply pressure. And the most important place for applying pressure is in Washington, DC, both on Capitol Hill and in the White House.

Well guess what. The Palestinians are doing the same thing. Only the Palestinians are applying pressure on the White House in order to pressure --- Israel. And it is not just the Palestinians, it is anyone who sides with the Palestinians. Americans, Europeans, Asians and Arabs alike.

All irony aside, the pressure is growing. There is probably more pressure being brought on the United States to try to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian issue than to keep up the sanctions on Iran.

The Palestinians are doing a better job than the Israelis in their PR campaign. They usually do.

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Palestinian Israeli Peace?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said yesterday that talks with Israel may extend beyond the nine month April deadline if real progress and a "detailed skeleton" of all the elements in question is in place.

Erekat wants the skeleton to include frameworks for borders, land swaps, security coordination and refugees.

This comment indicates that there may be more room for optimism than the impression given by initial assessments. Thomas Friedman, in a recent OPED in The New York Times, seems to sense the optimism.

Friedman raked the Palestinians over the coals saying they cannot have it all and that they must be more realistic about their desires for statehood. He made a very cogent argument for compromise.

Friedman criticized Israel for wanting too much and said that Israel must give up one of their three essential loves - democracy, the Jewishness of the state, the totality of the land of Israel. He suggests the third option, giving up settlements in the West Bank.

There is still very little chance of success. That having been said, low expectations are a great tool through which to achieve change.

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Iran's New Super - Radar
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

With full fanfare, Iran has announced a new radar system.

The announcement was made in all the papers, TV and radio stations, each announcement contained almost identical information. Iran now has a new, extra long range system radar that uses UHF, VHF, HF frequencies.

The system is called Arash, named after the Persian mythical figure and archer. According to tradition the Archer resolved a conflict about the boundaries of Persia by shooting an arrow off in a direction and all the land within the bowshot would become Persia. Arash used a magical bow and hence, he shot the arrow a super natural distance.

According to the reports this radar has a range of 200 kilometers or about 120 miles. It is able to track as many as 100 different incoming projectiles at the one time.

We do not know if this is actually for real - but the reports say that the radar system has been unveiled and successfully tested.

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Snow in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It snowed in Jerusalem.

The international press has romanticized the rare, beautiful white blanket that now covers parts of the Middle East.

Both The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal printed unique, even entertaining pictures of the snow in Jerusalem - on their front pages and above the fold. The Times showed a lone figure swimming in a pool surrounded by snow and images of the city. The Journal showed a snow boarder high in the air, his tsitsit (ritual fringed garment) flying in the wind.

The images shown in those papers are beautiful, but they do not depict the whole picture. The reality is grim. There is a very real and very ugly underbelly to this storm. Over 100 people have been treated in hospitals after slipping on ice. Tens of thousands of people were left without heat and electricity many are still living in the dark and cold. There are people trapped, waiting in their homes for emergency evacuations to hospitals after giving birth or having suffered various medical crises.

Some say that Israeli leadership failed miserably and that basic services have not functioned well in this crisis. Others are enjoying what may be a once in a lifetime experience.

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Romanian TV Carol - Kill the Jews
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Dumbstruck. Flummoxed. I cannot believe my eyes.

I have just read the lyrics of the Romania Christmas Carol sung by a folk ensemble named Dor Transilvan on Romania public television.

In the song the carolers proclaim that Jews killed Jesus. They sing that the only good Jews is a dead Jew. And then they add the words, only in the chimney. In other words, do as the Nazis did - mass murder Jews and then cremate them.

The Romanian television network was fined the equivalent of about $15,000 for engaging in a major violation of the law by airing a terribly Anti-semitic program.

Here are some of the lyrics:

"A beautiful child was born/
His name was Jesus Christ/
All the world worships him /
But the kikes / Damn kikes /
Holy God would not leave the kike alive /
Either in the sky or on the earth /
Only in the chimney as smoke / This is what the kike is good for /
To make kike smoke through the chimney on the street"

After these words were sung, the host of the program actually said thank you the choral group.

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Iran Becoming Obese
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is positioning the entire scenario - the whole thing, the talks, the agreement, the other meetings, everything - as a conflict with the West, especially a conflict with the United States.

Iran may be correct. And they just may win the war of diplomatic public relations.

But on one battlefield, the Iranians are losing and they will continue to lose. That battlefield is the field of modern culture.

Here is the most recent - and a very scary - example: Fully 33% of Iranians are obese. The state is embarking on massive educational campaigns to combat the epidemic. Private groups are initiating campaigns to combat obesity. But none of their efforts are likely to succeed.

The main culprit is fast food. Pizza, hamburgers and french fries are being gobbled up by Iranian youth much faster than are yogurt and fruit. The Iranians are opening their own rip-offs of Western chains. The rip-offs come complete with all the poor nutrients and all the fats of the originals.

Iran realizes there is almost no way to confront this phenomenon.
But they should get points for trying. For example, for several days during the week the city of Isfahan has closed city streets to cars in order in stimulate walking.

It just won't work. The youth of Iran are doomed. And we all know what happens next - acne.

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Iran Leaves Talks
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday Iran walked out of the five day long set of meetings they had been holding in Vienna. The meetings were the follow up to the accord they had signed with the P5+ 1 in the end of November with Iran.

The Iranian delegation walked out because the United States publicly listed 12 companies and individuals who have been violating sanctions. The reason the US made the announcement was to quell a resolution in congress to add new sanctions.

The accord specifically says that any new sanctions will nullify the agreement. The US was trying to thread the needle. They will say that they were just policing the current sanctions. They will say that this is nothing new. But Iran will say that it is new enforcement against them.

Officially, the Iranians said that they were returning to Tehran for consultations.

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Talks w Iran Not Progressing
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

For several days now, ever since Monday, representatives from the P5+1 have been meeting with Iran in Vienna.

There have been conflicting reports as to the progress of those meetings. But four days of talks is a positive sign and we know that, at least, they are still talking.

At first, public statements articulating positive progress on both sides were released. But yesterday it became clear that there are still real difficult issues to be hammered out. Principally, the difficulties surround what should happen and when.

Both sides are proving problematic. Both sides are insisting that the other make concessions. Iran wants a lessening of sanctions and the United States and the West want to limit the development of nuclear technology.

The biggest issue is a chicken and egg discussion. Which should come first? P5+1 says first open up for unfettered inspections and stop nuclear development. Iran says first relax the sanctions and then we will accommodate you.

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Congress May Derail Iran Accord
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 13 ,2013

I've Been Thinking.

Congress has been threatening to derail the agreement that was signed between the West, as represented by the P5+1, and Iran in Geneva.

The House will probably pass a non-binding resolution before Congress goes to recess next Friday. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is circulating a draft resolution.

On the Senate side, they seem more trusting. The Senate listened to the president and has heeded the White House calls for patience.

The agreement signed between the parties clearly says that no new sanctions may be imposed on Iran. If new sanctions are imposed, the agreement is totally nullified.

In reality, the House is sending a message to the White House and to Teheran. The message goes like this: We do not trust either of you.

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Assassination in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Hassan al Lakkis was assassinated in his car in Beirut, Lebanon. He had just pulled up to his house and was still in the car when the assassin jumped out and shot him 5 times.

Lakkis was the Hezbollah tech guru. He masterminded the Hezbollah hi-tech drone system and many of their gadgets and gimmicks. Some friends and colleagues teased him and called him "Q" after the techie in the Bond movies.

It is also a commonly held belief that Lakkis has been the mastermind behind the smuggling of weapons from Lebanon into Gaza and into Egypt. He was very close with the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

So who assassinated Hassan al Lakkis? Nasrallah and Hezbollah immediately blamed Israel.

But in an unprecedented response, Israel denied responsibility. The Israelis do not normally respond in these situations, they prefer to leave everyone guessing. Two groups, however, have claimed responsibility. The Free Sunni Brigades of Baalabek and the Soldiers of Damascus have both claimed that they killed Lakkis.

The style of the assassination and the response of Israel leads one to believe that responsibility really does lie with a local group.
There is no shortage of Hezbollah enemies in Beirut. Most importantly, the assassination was loud and public and very untidy.

The assassins did not have a very sophisticated exit strategy. They simply shot Lakkis many times and then sped off in a car.

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Embattled PA Leadership
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The biggest problem with the US push for a resolution between Israel and the Palestinians is a practical one. Unfortunately, the United States does not see the problem that will emerge because of their misdirected actions and advice.

The PA is an embattled and nearly totally defunct entity. Hamas is gaining popularity in the West Bank. Al Qaeda is growing in number in the West Bank. Most importantly, the Salafi movement is not only growing, it is growing quickly.

These groups view the Palestinian Authority as collaborators with Israel and the United States. They are fighting for the hearts and souls of young Palestinian men and boys and these groups are promising them the moon.

The PA is seen not as the leader of the future but as a throwback to the past. The masses of PA youth are not interested in Abbas - in fact, when they look at him all they see is corruption and nepotism.

The suggestions being made by the United States about security and the PA and Israel are non-attainable because, simply put, they are just not practical. The Palestinians seem to want new, young extremists more than they want the old guard.

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Israelis & Saudis Meet About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Follow this carefully.

Iran reported yesterday that Saudi Prince Bandar, who is also the head of the Saudi Intelligence Service, recently met several times with Israel intelligence officials in Geneva.

Under normal circumstances neither the source nor the report would be credible. But this particular report seems to be substantiated and logic dictates that meeting of this sort would be more than probable.

There have been multiple rumors and even public statements about regional cooperation with Israel. In other words, Saudi Arabia and Israel met to discuss ways to try to contain or even counter Iran and deal with the newly minted relationship Iran now has with the West, especially the United States.

The priorities for Israel and Saudi Arabia include trying to sideline all of Iran's proxies and trying to talk directly with the US to convince them of the mistake they are making with Iran and show them how Iran's interests are to destabilize - not to stabilize - the region and even the world.

Saudi Arabia is not shy about voicing dissatisfaction over Iran and Israel has been very vocal in their skepticism over Iran's intentions. The Saudis and Israelis are also sharing intelligence about the Muslim Brotherhood, especially in Egypt.

These were high level meetings. I am certain that other lower level and operational meetings are happening as you read this.

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Israel's New Assessment of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few weeks it seems clear that Israel has changed their assessment of Syria.

Until now Israel has always claimed that President Bashar Assad of Syria was on his way out and that his days were numbered. It was not a question of if but when he would be ousted, killed, toppled or exiled.

Now the Israelis have confirmed that Bashar Assad is there to stay for the foreseeable future. Assad has secured his position and his primary mission is to rid his country of Islamic al Qaeda influences that have crossed into Syria to try to topple him.

The change in Israel's assessment is based on Assad's recent military successes and the change in momentum within Syria that has continued to flow in his favor over the past ten months. In addition there is the international credibility that Assad has gained by cooperating and helping to identify and destroy chemical and biological weapons facilities within Syria.

Now Israel is now drawing up new and future scenarios for Syria. Primary on their list are the 5,000 to 10,000 foreign al Qaeda fighters only a stone’s throw away from Israel.

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What If The US Withdraws
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There are numerous discussions in international arenas about the United States stepping down from its long held role as international policeman.

It seems clear that under the stewardship of President Barack Obama the US is redefining its role internationally. Part of that redefinition means pulling out of places where the mere presence of the United States insured stability and free flow of economic and commercial traffic.

One of the regions now in question is the Persian Gulf. Until now the US has played an essential role in making certain that oil flowed freely through the region. There is serious speculation and worry in the corridors of oil consuming nations that, given the current US condition and policy making decisions, they may diminish their policing role in the Gulf.

If that should happen who, if anyone, will step in to fill the void? So far, it looks as if the void will remain. Following is a significant example of that new reality:

Salman Khashid is India's minister of external affairs. India is the 2nd largest consumer of oil in the world. When the question was posed to Salman Khurshid's by Reuters, this is what he said: "We have never played the classical role of intervening with military assistance in the same way that the US has been doing."

That is troubling. Troubling for the region and troubling for the world.

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Hamas To Hang Those Who Aid Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Hamas court convicted and sentenced A.K. to death by hanging.

A.K. is the only name he is known by. His crime was helping the Israelis. Officially, in Hamas terms, the crime was collaborating with the Zionist occupation. It is a crime that is punishable by death.

Thus far, in 2013, Hamas has convicted and sentenced 12 people to death for helping Israel. Three have been executed. Since 2007, the year that Hamas took over Gaza, 17 people have been executed for collaboration with Israel.

Only two other crimes carry the death penalty according to Palestinian law - murder and drug trafficking.

Under Palestinian law the execution must be sanctioned by the President. In Gaza, Hamas does not recognize the authority of the president of the Palestinian Authority. They have not accepted Abbas since they took over Gaza.

Given that the punishment for helping Israel is death, it is very unlikely that any real peace can or will emerge between Israel and the Palestinians.

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Kerry is No Miracle Worker
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry returned to Israel last night.

Many people are hoping that he will succeed. They are counting on him to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Palestinian leadership has announced that Kerry must come in a save the day. New York Times columnist Thomas Freidman says that Kerry needs to push the parties and that will force a deal.

But Kerry is not a miracle worker.

It is not certain that the parties, Israel and the Palestinians, really want a solution. The Israelis talk about peace but have not really made the right moves. The Palestinians have never really made the right gestures or moves.

Realistically speaking, there is little chance of any solution during this Kerry Middle East trip.

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Iran to Move in on OPEC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Today OPEC is meeting and Iran is hoping to take charge.

The Iranians are attempting to change the daily output of OPEC and, once again, turn themselves into one of the most powerful forces in the world of oil export.

Of course, Saudi Arabia - the major OPEC member, will see this as a frontal assault. Saudi Arabia is currently the most powerful force around the OPEC table. Iran has been powerless since the Western sanctions were instituted. Now that the sanctions are being lifted, Iran wants to move into the position of power.

In addition to everything else they want, the Iranians are also proposing to place one of their people as the new chairman and head of OPEC. Exactly how the other OPEC members are going to receive the newly awakened arrogance of Iran is yet to be seen.

One thing is for sure, Saudi Arabia is not going to take this lightly. Expect real clash and a full blown battle.

We will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds.

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UK Resumes Diplomatic Ties w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

London has announced that their new charge d'affairs will visit Iran today.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague announced that Ajay Sharma will make his first trip to Iran with the intention of setting up new relations between the two countries.

Ajay Sharma tweeted that relations between the United Kingdom and Iran will improve one step at a time.

This is a huge step for any Western country. It is a real diplomatic normalization of ties. I am curious to see what the UK gains from this unprecedented change in diplomatic status.

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Al Qaeda in The West Bank
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli army recently shot and killed three terrorists in the West Bank. The incident was unusual.

The first reason is that the West Bank had been pretty quiet, so a shoot out involving three terrorists was an out of the ordinary event. The second is that the group claiming that the three terrorists were their group members is a branch of al Qaeda.

The Palestinian Authority has maintained that there is no al Qaeda presence in the West Bank despite some serious signs showing evidence of the opposite. These three terrorists are the most recent and the most significant proof.

Al Qaeda influences come from the outside the West Bank by way of affiliated organizations trying to motivate locals to join their al Qaeda ranks.

There are two methods of recruitment. One is when organizers infiltrate into the West Bank. Another is by way of the internet. Online sermons and chat rooms and websites serve as gathering places from which the organizers garner support for their local objectives and global goals.

The PA responded to the shooting saying that these three terrorists were not al Qaeda members. They need to deny the affiliation because if they were, it would prove that another force is emerging which is outside the influence of the official PA.

The Palestinian Authority can deny as much as they want, but at this point it is pretty obvious to whom these three terrorists pledged their allegiance.

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What Iran Really Thinks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

We often evaluate situations from our point of view, it's only natural. But in the case of the Iranian deal with the P5+1 power nations, it might be worthwhile to try to see things through the perspective of Iran.

Abbas Araqchi is the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. On Sunday he was all over the Iranian press - on TV and in FARS, the official Iranian news agency. Araqchi provided a timetable. He said that this week he expects to hear from Helga Schmid, a senior EU diplomat, and that the group will probably convene again the following week in Geneva or Vienna.

Many questions arise, especially when, or even if, the agreement is in play. There is no mechanism at all for the agreement. There is no way for this agreement to be implemented. The Iranians know that, they probably maneuvered in such a way to make that happen.

And now the Iranians are expecting the West to violate the terms of the agreement which will, in turn, free them from the agreement.
Even if I am wrong and that was not the Iranian master plan, Iran does not feel that the agreement released last Saturday night is binding.

Here is what Araqchi said. Determine for yourself what it means:
"The moment we feel that the opposite side is not meeting its obligations or its actions fall short, we will revert to our previous position and cease the process."

"We are in no way optimistic about the other side - we are pessimistic - and we have told them that we cannot trust you."

No need to read between the lines.

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There Must Be A 2nd Agreement w Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

"One hundred percent no."

That was the answer Iran's President Hassan Rouhani gave the Financial Times when asked if Iran was going to dismantle any nuclear technology.

This exclamatory statement is another in a long series of proofs that confirm for me that the agreement that the P5+1 signed with Iran came out in two very different versions.

Sitting on my desk is the copy of the agreement sent out by the White House. I re-read it several times a day when I write about or comment on the agreement.

But then I see, hear and read what Rouhani and others say and do and I have to ask what it going on here. Their words and actions are completely counter to what is written in and permitted by the agreement sitting in front of me.

At first I thought Iran was pushing the limits. But there are too many examples to cast aside. India says that they are now going to resume oil importing from Iran and that their insurance carriers will now cover them. Russia, too, says that they are now preparing to import Iranian oil.

The only way that this is possible is if there is another version of the agreement. Petrol chemicals are permitted in the pact according to my copy, oil is not.

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US-Iran Open Chamber of Commerce
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hear ye, hear ye, read all about it. Two news items you could not have expected:

# 1: An Iran / US Chamber of Commerce has been created and will officially begin functioning with the next few weeks.

# 2: Direct flights between the United States and Iran will be instituted in the near future. The flights will arrive and depart only on the Island of Kish. Kish is an international tax free trading zone. As such, US citizens will not need Iranian visas.

This news was presented, in Iran, by Abdolfazl Hejazi of the Iran / US Chamber of Comerce. The announcements were made public in a press conference and publicized to the English language press yesterday in Iran.

The announcement went like this: "Iran / US Chamber of Commerce will be launched in less than one month," Abolfazl Hejazi, a member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, told the English-language Iran Daily.

This process of normalization between the United States and Iran is moving ahead very quickly. While there are no official relations yet, at this rate I do not imagine that it will be too long before official diplomatic relations are established and there is an exchange of ambassadors.

Let us, however, not forget what happened in 1979. That is the year Iran took 52 US diplomats hostage - and kept them for 444 days.

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2 News Items
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Of the many news reports that crossed my screen yesterday, two items caught my attention more than the others.

One item was a report on how the United States formerly and publically defended Iran’s right to continue construction of their plutonium enrichment factory at Arak. That's right - the United States defended Iran's right.

The United States said that as long as the Iranians are not working on heavy water or plutonium itself, the plant can continue construction.

What the United States refuses to acknowledge is that once completed, the Arak plant will be in the perfect position to process plutonium for a bomb.

The other item was a report that the United States announced that they would be destroying Syrian weapons in the sea on a ship called the MV Cape Ray. The ship is a huge, 700 feet long. No country wanted to host the destruction so the United States will have to destroy these Syrian non-conventional weapons on its own.

These two items teach us a lot about what is happening in our world today. Item number one highlights that fact that the deal with Iran is really, honest and truly only good for Iran.

And item number two underscores the fact that no one other country cares about or is willing to help another no matter that it is for the greater good. When it's not about Iran, everyone is too busy to lend a hand.

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Rouhani Loves The Deal
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rouhani, the new president of Iran is very happy about the deal he signed with the West. And why wouldn't he be.

Yesterday he explained why this deal so excites him. This deal, he said, has made Iran stronger and severely weakened Israel.
Here is his quote: "Everyone is happy about this deal."

Rouhani said that the only people who were not happy or satisfied were "warmongers and that regime, which is an illegitimate one that occupies."

The words "that regime" is a Rouhani euphemism for Israel. The new president, just like the entire elite leadership of Iran, never mentions Israel by name.

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India to Import Iran Oil
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd has announced that they will once again be importing oil from Iran.

HPCL is the largest oil refinery in India. They only stopped importing Iranian oil in April when it became impossible to insure ships transporting oil from Iran to India.

India is the second largest importer of oil in the world. They are also the second largest consumer of oil. They import crude and refine it.

Soon, they will probably outstrip China for the title of the World's Largest Importer and Worlds Largest Oil Consumer.

HPCL is convinced that the new agreement signed by the P5 +1 will allow them the ability to freely, safely and legally get oil from Iran.

If they are correct - and there is no reason that HPCL would jeopardize their ships and their product - it was not included in the agreement that was made public.

It makes one wonder ...

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Winners & Losers of the Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The pact between Iran and the West has resulted in some very big winners and some very big losers.

The biggest winner by far is Iran. The Iranians got just what they wanted. They can continue to enrich their uranium, albeit a minimum amount or uranium and, more importantly, they saved face. These were their red lines.

Barack Obama is the next big winner. The president of the United States embraced talks, he wanted an agreement and he got an agreement.

The big losers are Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Palestinians have weighed in on the agreement and they endorsed it. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Issued a statement saying that the agreement "sent an important lesson to Israel of which it needs to learn that peace is the only solution for the Middle East, and the world powers have to be wound up in order to advance a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians."

Even this agreement, which has nothing to do with the Palestinians, has become their issue. Abbas can't resist. He insists on laying blame for the failing peace negotiations at the he feet of Israel for not engaging in peace and for the West for not forcing a settlement.

As far as the Palestinians are concerned, even though they are neither winners nor losers in this deal, it's all about them.

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They Signed & It's a Travesty
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The agreement signed between Iran and the 5+1is a travesty. It is what I would call a "temporary freeze agreement" - and a poor agreement at that.

The agreement is based on the hope that Iran will freeze their activity for 6 months and in return for allowing the nations of the world to hope, Iran will receive some relief from the sanctions placed against them.

The most glaring drawback in this document is that the Iranian plutonium reactor in Arak just stands still.

To be precise, it stands still in terms of its plutonium enrichment - but Iran can still continue to build and expand upon its technology. Unlike uranium, there is only one purpose for a plutonium reactor. The purpose is for weapons.

As for the other, the many, the small labs that Iran has been opening and developing technology and materials in - they are not even part of the package.

The Iranians are counting on is this interim agreement becoming permanent. That would be a huge victory for them. They would get relief from sanctions and the core of their nuclear program will not even have been touched.

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Rouhani Tweets About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani posted a tweet yesterday.

He told the 6 powers that are involved in negotiating with Iran in Geneva to make a decision. To make a decision independent of Israel and Israel's stance.

Tweeting this message is an essential tool of Iranian rhetoric. The Iranians are suggesting that Israel has manipulated the most powerful nations in order to accommodate their needs.

Rouhani is saying that Israel's needs are not necessarily the needs of other countries. And that is what is holding up the agreement.

The problem is that all 6 countries in the negotiations understand the risks that Israel will confront as a result of a treaty - especially if that treaty is abrogated. So, indeed, it may appear as if the 6 countries present are arguing for Israel.

Unfortunately, in this case the litmus test for a good deal is whether or not Israel is threatened. They are.

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Americans Favor Iran Treaty
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A recent CNN poll shows that 56% of Americans are in favor of signing a treaty with Iran in exchange for the stopping of uranium enrichment and the lifting of certain sanctions.

56% is a very telling number. It means that 56% of Americans are hopeful.

But it does not explain why they think this way. That, I can explain.

Americans are trusting and optimistic ... actually to a fault. It is that trusting attitude which allows Americans to believe that a deal with the Iranians will benefit everyone.

It is very hard for the American spirit to see a down side. I will tell them what that down side is. Iran is not trustworthy. And that I can say 100%.

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On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between Iran and the 5+1 began yesterday in Geneva. It was a very short meeting, only 5 or 10 minutes. The meeting was an introduction of sorts, now small groups are going into bilateral meetings.

Yesterday, while addressing commanders of the Basij, a paramilitary force that patrols the cities in Iran, the Grand Ayatollah said that: "The (Israeli) Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse."

The French government spokesman came out with a statement that comments of this sort are not productive, and are "problematic."

As Iran and the 5+1 were meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hopped on a plane to Moscow for a last minute meeting with Russian President Putin. Netanyahu wants to convince Putin to help France in demanding more substance in the agreement with Iran.

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Conflict Over Iran Deal
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The disagreement between the White House and Israel over a potential agreement with Iran has been blown way out of proportion.

Yes, there is disagreement - but it is a mistake to think that it is simply between Israel and the White House.

Congress has been very vocal about their disagreement with the White House, so dissatisfied that and have scheduled a vote to intensify sanctions against Iran even in the middle of talks with Iran.

So what does President Obama do? The president uses his most powerful tool of persuasion to convince the members of Congress to postpone the vote - he invites them to the White House.

First the Senate Committee on Banking pushed off their decision on sanctions. And then yesterday the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations decided to delay their vote on sanctions until after Thanksgiving and revisit the issue in December.

It is important to realize that there is an internal US conflict - not merely a Democrat /Republican split. There are honest disagreements about whether to trust Iran.

Israeli leadership is on the side of not trusting Iran, as are a significant number of leaders on Capitol Hill.

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PA Footbal Head Calls Israel Nazis
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Shock is the best response to the comments of Jibril Rajoub, the head of the Palestinian Football Association.

Rajoub laced into Israel and declared that Israel is a fascist and Nazi country. He called for a total boycott of sports interaction between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Rajoub is claiming that the Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu, are "taking advantage of the negotiations in order to play for time and create facts on the ground, which proves that this is an occupation in the form of fascism and Nazism."

Rajoub called for an immediate "escalation in the popular activity against the occupation." The term "popular activity" is an essential code which means violence and attacks against Israeli.

In response, the Israel Football Association released the following statement:

"We are disgusted by these wretched statements and reject them. It's unfortunate that Rajoub is using sports for political purposes and is failing to contribute to the creation of a better reality."

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Association Chairman Avi Luzon and the heads of the IDF are trying constantly to help the Palestinian Authority maintain a life of sports as long as it does not put the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in danger."

"Accusing Israel of fascism and Nazism and calling for an armed uprising by Rajoub can be seen as incitement, and it's hard to see how this can help improve the situation."

A conflict of this sort is extremely dangerous. It sets an awful tone and frames the issues of this conflict in terms that are wildly out of proportion to the real issues and the true conflict.

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Nasrallah's New Secret Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Media in both Lebanon and Israel have been actively asking a serious question about Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.


Nasrallah almost never comes out in public. He prefers the safety of underground bunkers. From the safety of those bunkers he broadcasts his messages and speeches.

To celebrate the recent Shiite holiday Nasrallah made not one but two public appearances. As usual when he is in public, Nasrallah was surrounded by his team of heavily armed body guards. But this time, something was different. One of the body guards, the one standing right next to Nasrallah, was not carrying a submachine gun. He was carrying a briefcase.

The media wants to know: What is with the briefcase?

Experts say that the case is actually a bullet proof blanket that pops up and shields the person. It can stand like a portable movie screen. It is supposed to protect against fire bullets of all kinds up to 7.62 mm and it is supposed to protect against explosions especially Molotov Cocktails. Several companies manufacture this product, the most popular company is Protech.

If that is in fact the case that Nasrallah is using, he is not the first to seek its protective powers. It is also used by the British.

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Israel & France Agree
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

French President Francois Hollande is visiting Israel. Israel and France both consider this a critical visit.

France is the reason that the lightening paced move to sign a deal with Iran was slowed down. The French want to add more specifics and independent evaluations into the pact. It was France that put the brakes on and stopped the signing last week.

Israel is very happy about that.

France was also the first and most powerful voice calling for a strike against Syria after the August 21 gassing. French fighters were in their jets ready to strike when Hollande got a call from the White House demanding that they stand down.

But Israel is realistic.

France has always pursued its own direction in the Middle East - and it was often at odds with and very different from the perspectives of Israel and the United States.

Israel realizes that Hollande has his hands full domestically - that his most important goal is to stabilize his own erratic economy which tanked post election.

So although Israel is elated by this trip and knows that it will be a huge success, they are also cognizant of the limitations of that success and very aware of how French foreign policy is prepared and played out. And right now, standing up against Iran and challenging the United States is a good move in Paris.

Make no mistake, that is why Hollande is behaving the way he is. Israel understands that. And right now, that is also a good move in Jerusalem.

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India v China: Battle of Aircarft Carriers
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

India just received its third aircraft carrier. The ship is a formerly decommissioned and revamped Soviet Russia carrier. It was totally overhauled by the Russians and sold to India for about $2.3 Billion.

The importance of this is huge.

China and India have a long history of coexistence. But over the past few years there has been increased tensions ... mostly caused by China and their movements in the South China Sea. More than that, there was also a three week land standoff on a mutual border between China and India.

The Chinese have orchestrated a series of tense moments between their country and India over the past year. Not the least of it is the fact that China has been chumming up to Pakistan - and we all know what India thinks about that.

The Chinese also have a former Soviet aircraft carrier that they put in the water in 2011.

China and India each see the other with great suspicion, yet trade between the two countries continues to grow.

These two nations are the most populous countries in the world and if they work together the relationship will be mutually beneficial.
If there are tensions it will be destructive.

One cannot avoid the reality that Russia is the provider of these and billions of dollars worth of other weapons. The Russians are in the middle of things - which is right where they want to be.

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Beheaded the Wrong Guy
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Oops!

Some mistakes you just cannot take back and correct.

Al Qaeda of Iraq and Syria beheaded someone whom they believed to be the leader of President Assad's forces.

They cut off his head and held it up in the town square. The entire event was filmed and posted on line.

After it was posted viewers responded on line explaining that the bearded head was not a Shiite leader at all - it was the head of a member of a Sunni rebel group, a member of a group that was fighting Assad. The beheaded and the beheaders were supposedly fighting on the same side.

This gruesome, senseless, brutal episode underscores just how disconnected the situation is right now in Syria.

Al Qaeda has asked for "understanding and forgiveness." Understanding, I doubt it, Forgiveness, I am certain they will not receive.

Expect a huge rift between the groups in the not too distant future.

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US Will Be Largest Oil Producer
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The International Energy Agency just released a report that says that the US will become the world's largest producer of oil by 2015.

That is good news and bad. Using new technology, especially hydraulic fracking, the United States is able to utilize shale and the natural gas and oil that are contained within.

The bad news is that the United States will not stay on top for very long. Shale reserves will be depleted by 2030.

The IEA also reported also that, over the next few years, 75% of all energy consumed in the world will be in Asia and that India is quickly outpacing China in energy consumption. By 2020 India will be consuming more energy than China.

Within the world of oil and energy both production and consumption are taking shape. It looks like things are changing - but are they really? If alternatives are not found, in 15 years we will be right where we started and Saudi Arabia will once again be the world's largest producer and largest exporter of oil.

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Lebanese Stop Hamas Arms Shipment
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The new Middle East is full of surprises.

In the Middle East, just like Machiavelli said, people act in their own best interests. No country acts altruistically. No leader acts on behalf of global issues or, even, out of pan-Arab concern.

In the Middle East leaders act to better secure their own leadership
positions.

So when the Arab magazine Al-Watan Al-Arabi reported that "Hamas men have been detained in recent months by state security forces while trying to enter the Beirut airport with fake documents" no one who understands the Middle East should have been surprised.

The magazine reported that: "The suspects tried to transfer a large sum of money from the Beirut Hamas headquarters to an unidentified source. Recently, it was claimed, Hamas managed to recruit a Lebanese weapons dealer in order to transfer advanced weapons to the Gaza Strip."

The Lebanese are clamping down on Hamas. They are doing this for the sake of better trade, especially with Egypt. But Lebanon is also worried. They do not want to call attention to themselves from Russia, the US or the Iranians.

Russia, the United States and Iran would all be very interested if arms were to be transferred out of Lebanon en route to Gaza. Rather than try to keep the operation hush hush, their next best option was to simply shut down the arms transfer.

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Pope Condemns Anti Semitism
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In St. Peter's Square, on Sunday, Pope Francis spoke about Kristalnacht. The Pope commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Night of Broken Glass.

He said: "We renew our closeness and solidarity to the Jewish people, our big brothers, and pray to God that the memory of the past and of the sins of the past helps us to be always vigilant against every form of hate and intolerance."

When Francis was Archbishop of Buenos Aires he co-authored a book on inter-religious dialogue with Rabbi Abraham Skora.

Pope Francis both understands and is sensitive to the issues that are central to the Jewish community.

Pope Francis fully recognizes and condemns all forms of hatred, especially anti-Semitism.

Pope Francis realizes that Nazism used anti-Semitism as fuel for hatred and as an excuse for murdering the Jews of Europe.

Pope Francis sees the dangers in not adequately confronting and learning the lessons of the Holocaust.

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US Gung Ho To Sign W Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Office of the Prime Minister of Israel has concluded that the reason the United States is so gung ho to sign a "bad deal" with the Iranians is because the United States thinks it is the only way to stop an Israeli strike against Iran.

Israel is not alone in concluding that the deal is bad. Many countries, including Arab countries, are in agreement with Israel.
The French are especially upset at the potential deal and they are aggressively working to stop the signing.

The Israelis are convinced that the United States sincerely believes that the only alternative to signing a deal with Iran is attacking Iran. And so, it goes to reason, that the US will do anything and everything even signing a bad deal with Iran.

If Israel is correct, a terrible deal is just around the corner.

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Israeli Can Strike Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One of the classic responses to the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran has been to say that Israel does not have the capability to do a proper job of wiping out Iranian nuclear systems and other weapons systems.

American leaders consistently put down the idea that Israel will strike Iran because the attack would not achieve the desired objective. But Israel's ability to effectively strike Iran has been updated.

Whereas it was always assumed that an Israeli strike would only delay the Iranian nuclear program by two to three years, today it is believed that Israel can set Iran back ten years. Even a partly effective attack by Israel would set Iran back seven or eight years.

The change in calculus is due to a better understanding of Israeli weapons and of better intel. This update in Israeli military might has been spreading through military and intelligence circles around the world. The axiom that was in play several months ago is no longer axiomatic.

Where once the United States said that Israel will need her assistance and will not act alone, today it seems that Israeli dissatisfaction over US negotiations with Iran carries with it a significant potential wallop.

Israel is now prepping a series of real strike scenarios. Some of those scenarios are to be carried out without US support.

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Israel Prepping on the Golan
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Israel will embark on a massive exercise in the north. The exercise will take place throughout the Israeli Golan heights

The Israeli army (IDF), along with communities in the Golan Heights, will work to improve preparedness for terror strikes that will be coming their way from Syria.

Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz has alluded to the dangers of these attacks several times. Now the chief of staff has determined that it is time to prepare for them.

There are about 6000 al Qaeda fighters and affiliates in Syria. Some estimate that the number will double by April. That means that regardless of what happens to Assad, Israel will become their target.

Israel must create proper defenses against the al Qaeda threat. The drills that will be undertaken next week are designed to point out weak spots that need to be strengthened in order to create a better and more secure border.

For the past several decades the border between Israel and Syria has been tense, but relatively quiet. There is no doubt that the quiet will soon be shattered. The only question mark is when.

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Syrians in Israeli Hospitals
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday fourteen Syrians were brought to two different Israeli hospitals for treatment due to serious injuries.

Two of the injured were women and they were brought to Ziv Hospital in Safed. The others were brought to Nehariya, one was a child and another, an infant.

Over the weekend an injured Syrian women recuperating in an Israeli hospital gave birth to a baby.

I have lost track of how many Syrians have crossed the border and received serious medical treatment and life saving care in Israel.

I do know that the numbers are now in the hundreds. I can also tell you that, so far, only one Syrian being treated in Israeli hospitals has died. That is impressive.

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Price of Oil is Dropping
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Oil fell to $94 yesterday.

The price of oil has been on a continuous slide and it will continue to slide even more.

There has been a 10% fall in the price of oil over the past month.
There has also been a 10% increase in US oil production against the average US output over the past 5 years measuring from the end of October.

The price of oil would probably have dropped even more - but the instability in Egypt, Syria and in Libya has caused the price of oil to increase. With those increases and with the additional output by the US there was still a drop in oil prices to $94.

Instability is normally the major indicator for oil prices. And the Middle East has not been calm. But in this case the supply side of the equation actually has an even more powerful impact on the price of oil than does turmoil in the Middle East.

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President Morsi in Court
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The trial of ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi did not go as planned.

The proceedings began two hours late because Morsi refused to wear the prisoner uniform required for all defendants appearing before the court. It was delayed even more when Morsi, and others charged with him, refused to cooperate during the hearing.

Morsi shouted: "I am your legitimate president. You are wrong." "I object to having the Egyptian courthouse cover for the criminal military coupe."

When the court clerk took attendance of the defendants, Morsi interrupted and said: "I am forced to be in this place. I am here by force."

As it became obvious that the court was unable to control the defendants, Morsi again shouted. This time he said: "I am Dr. Mohammed Morsi, the president of the republic. I am Egypt's legitimate president."

Morsi shouted: "I refuse to be tried by this court."

The court should have realized that this would be the tactic taken by Morsi and his cohorts.

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What Iran Really Thinks
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran - who has neither been seen nor heard from in several weeks - posted a very important declaration on his website yesterday.

The Grand Ayatollah Khamanei gave perspective to the process of negotiations with the West, particularly in light of the second round of talks scheduled for Nov 6-7 later this week.

Of course he called Israel an "illegitimate, bastard" regime. Actually, he referred to Israel as "an illegitimate bastard Zionist regime." He never uses the name Israel.

The Supreme Leader wanted the people of Iran to understand that the negotiations were not about Iran's weakness. "No one should see our negotiating team as compromisers."

He made it clear that he did not approach the talks with rose colored glasses --- "I am not optimistic about the (nuclear) negotiations but, with the grace of God, we will not suffer losses either."

Then he added: "All the better if the negotiations bear fruit but if there are no results, the country should rely on itself."

The Grand Ayatollah also strongly criticized the sanctions that are still in place. He seems to understand the United States very well. His ultimate take on the negotiations went like this: "The Americans smile and express desire for negotiation; on the other hand, they immediately say that all options are on the table." "We should not trust a smiling enemy."

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Kerry Visits Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry made an unscheduled stop in Egypt today.

It was the first time since the uprising of four months ago that any high level representative of the United States, let alone the secretary of state, has visited Egypt.

The United States had no precedent for dealing with the ousting of a democratically elected president - and Morsi was the first ever democratically elected president of Egypt. They did not know how to handle the situation. By law the United States cannot support a coup against an elected regime - even if the regime represented the Muslim Brotherhood. So the United States cancelled several aid packages to Egypt and stood by watching and waiting.

This visit by Kerry is significant.

It demonstrates that the US finally, truly, understands and accepts that even though he was democratically elected, as leader of Egypt Morsi transformed his government into an anti-democratic government promoting the goals of the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is a major step for the United States and will help US standing in the region.

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Next Israeli Coalition Bomb
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Another coalition bomb is set to explode in Israel on Monday.

Habayit Hayehudi, also known as the Jewish Home Party, under the leadership of Naftali Bennett, has proposed a law which would permit Jews to pray on top of the Temple Mount. The proposed law will be brought before a committee on Monday.

There is no official law forbidding Jews from praying there, but there is a status quo. And there is always the overriding issue of public safety.

There are Jewish tours of the Mount and periodically people will pray. When a Jew or a group of Jews pray as part of the tour, the police sweep down and arrest the Jews and then ban them from future visits.

The Muslim world scrutinizes every single action Jews take on and near the Temple Mount. There have been riots and protest in far flung Muslim locations stimulated by activities in Jerusalem.

Until now the status quo has controlled the situation. Status quo means 'stay as is' and in the interest of coexistence, everything should probably stay that way.

Obviously the point of the proposal is that Jews should be able to pray anywhere, especially in Jerusalem and especially at such a holy site.

While it is not forbidden by law, for the sake of safety and in the name of wisdom, Bennett should back off and everything should stay as is.

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Ayatollah Unseen For 3 Weeks
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

When a leader like Iran's Grand Ayatollah Khamenei does not appear in public for three weeks, and when there are press reports that he collapsed in a meeting and was taken to the hospital, the intelligence community starts making all kinds of assumptions and conjectures.

It has been three weeks since the leader of Iran has been seen in public and it is assumed that he is recovering from some health issue. We in the West do not know what might have caused the Grand Ayatollah to collapse.

Khamenei has been in power since 1989. He is only 74, but if he can no longer serve there will be serious upheaval in Iran.

The man most likely to succeed Khamenei would be Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the fourth president of Iran, from 1989 to 1997.
Rafsanjani is believed to be a reformer and as such, he could really create change. He is extremely well qualified to be the Grand Leader, actually more qualified than Khamenei in terms of his level of learning and academic standing.

I am not about to speculate. In all likelihood the Ayatollah is not going anywhere. But the end of the rule of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei will come eventually and when it does, it will be very interesting to see how things shake and rattle and are then resolved in Iran.

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Internal Conflicts In Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I think that it essential to critically observe the moves and changes in Egypt, the situation is not static. Changes are happening and tensions between political parties are emerging.

The army is arresting leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. They are clamping down on the all aspects of Brotherhood activity.

The judges hearing a case against the Muslim Brotherhood leadership resigned. They resigned because the accused were not permitted to attend their trial.

This move was a direct attack against the military leadership. The judges were not taking a side - they simply said that the accused must be present to have a fair trial.

I project that the right of the accused to witness and participate in their defense will be part of the Egyptian legal process from yesterday on forward.

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Gaza Resumes Rocket Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Israel has repositioned even more Iron Dome batteries at their southern border, near the Gaza border.

The Iron Dome is an anti-missile weapon that intercepts incoming projectiles and it has an extremely high rate of success. Just yesterday two rockets were shot from Gaza into Israel. One was intercepted and the second rocket landed in the Mediterranean Sea.

Gaza has started acting up again. Israel has already struck at one source of their launchers. They clearly believe that more rockets will be shot into Israel in the near future. Relocating the Iron Dome is a wise and effective defense against the missiles.

It also sends a message to Israelis. It tells Israeli residents in the region that the state is upping their security. And it clearly tells the terrorists of Gaza that if the situation escalates Israel is prepared to escalate, too.

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Hackers Hit Obama Twitter Account
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian Electronic Army has struck again. They hacked a twitter account belonging to the US President Obama's non for profit.

They tweeted, "Obama does not have any ethical issues with spying on the world, so we took it upon ourselves to return the favor."

The SEA is a hacking group that defends Bashar Assad of Syria. They have hacked into The NYTimes and into Reuters. They hacked AP and placed news items and attributed quotes to Obama.

They specialize in hacking social media.

The twitter account they hacked is not a central part of the president's message. It is not regularly used, but it was an important vehicle during the campaign.

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Just Shocked by Straw
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Shocking. That's the only way I can describe my reaction to reports about comments made by former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.

Straw actually said that "unlimited Jewish money" in the United States was an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians.

His message did not stop there. Straw continued by saying that another obstacle was Germany's official "obsession" with Israel - to use his terminology, Germany had an obsession with defending Israel.

This, too, is a form of anti-Semitism.

Jack Straw is suggesting that because of their guilt over the Holocaust, Germany cannot see the current political landscape clearly. His charge is that German guilt clouds their vision and forces them to defend Israel in unparalleled ways.

Straw was the British foreign secretary from 2001 to 2006, under Tony Blair. The Blair government was believed to be a friend of Israel and friendly to Jews in England and around the world.

Was that merely a well constructed façade? And where and how does Straw arrive at this warped conclusion?

Shame on you Jack Straw.

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Justice in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

We need to keep an eye on Egypt.

The current government ousted President Morsi, a democratically elected leader. They ousted Morsi in order to preserve democracy. Now the ruling military and the interim government are en route to elections and the re-establishment of democratic leadership.

That is a tough road. They have come close to the fine line and sometimes even crossed it - clamping down on anti-democratic forces like the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups who challenged their leadership and threatened to overthrow them.

And they charged former UN nuclear chief inspector for the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency) with betrayal. Mohamed El Baradei resigned from the new government after he saw the brutality of the army on the streets. He left the country but was charged with betrayal. The reason they gave for the charge was that he assumed a position and then stepped down.

Yesterday the court threw out the charges against El Baradei. The court said that there was no case. That is essential to understanding the new, new Egypt.

It shows that in the transition the judicial and democratic process is working. It would have been typical and scary had he been convicted, especially in absentia.

There is still hope for Egypt.

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Jews Fleeing Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There are 15,000 Jews living in Turkey.

There has been a long history of symbiosis for Jews in Turkey. The Jewish population has worked well with Turkish Muslims and Turkish Muslims have world well with Turkish Jews.

However, during the past few years, that very close and wonderful working and living relationship has begun to dissemble. The Jews of Turkey are now describing a very different political, cultural and religious climate. They describe an increase in anti-Semitism and are saying that socially, they are shunned.

Young Jews are leaving Turkey. Almost everyone wants to go the United States. If they cannot get to the US they go to Canada, Europe, Australia and Israel.

These young people complain that in Turkey Israel is always the topic of conversation and that there is tremendous pressure to critique Israel. The Jewish community is seen as local representatives of Israel and they say that they are targeted socially and physically.

The young people of Turkey are fleeing for more comfortable shores.

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Israel Gives Dead Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is preparing to transfer the bodies of 36 terrorists to the Palestinians. The families of the terrorists were told to assemble at check points on November 5 and November 7 to receive the coffins.

These terrorist were mass murderers some were even suicide bombers. They include the suicide bomber that murdered 15 in Jerusalem at the Sbarro pizza parlor in 2002 and the terrorist who murdered 17 in a restaurant in Haifa in 2002.

This exchange follows the transfer last year of the bodies of 91 terrorists - 79 to the West Bank and 12 to Gaza.

Family members of the victims are up in arms. There has been no official message from the government. The only way we have even this much information is from the Palestinian families of the terrorists.

Several months ago I wrote about this eventuality because the issue came before the Israeli Supreme Court. They needed to rule on the legality of the transfer and I noticed that the issue was on the docket.

The big question is this: What does Israel gain by transferring these bodies. Many families of victims fear that because the process has been so secretive it may just be a gesture to the Palestinians. And that they find insulting.

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Near Al Qaeda Jail Break
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Sanaa, Yemen 300 Al Qaeda prisoners attempted to break out of prison. They nearly succeeded.

An official described the jail break this way: "almost 300 al-Qaeda prisoners, armed with knives and iron bars, attacked prison guards, injuring some of them."

But the guards and reinforcements arrived in time and prevented the 300 al Qaeda terrorist from breaking out and rejoining their networks.

Yemen is now the world center for al Qaeda.

The Yemeni government is teaming with the United States and other Western and Arab countries to combat the vicious spread of al Qaeda.

Prison breaks are relatively common. Until recently, this break might have been successful. But now Yemen is far better organized - they are fighting back and they are controlling al Qaeda.

Good for Yemen. Good for us all.

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Abbas Will Blame Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians President Abbas was in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania yesterday. At a press conference he spoke about the new negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

He said Israel is at fault if the negotiations fail. They are at fault simply because of the current situation.

"And if they (the negotiations) fail, they (the Israelis) will be the reason for this failure, not us," the Palestinian president said.

"They do not have the right to stay on our land after the signing of the peace treaty," Abbas said.

"They don't have the right to stay in our territories after we signed a peace treaty," he noted, stressing that he accepts a future demilitarized Palestinian state.

"We want, according to the Oslo Accords, a strong police force. This is exactly what we want, how we understand, how they understand, how the Americans understand it."

No surprises. Israel is always at fault.

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Local Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Municipal elections are taking place throughout Israel today.

There are 8,051,200 citizens in Israel. 5,469,041 are eligible to vote in the elections. They are voting in 191 municipalities in 8,771 polling stations.

The largest election is in Jerusalem. Of the 890,428 citizens of Jerusalem 576, 408 are eligible to vote. Jerusalem is divided into three relatively equal groups: secular, religious and Arab.

The Arab population of Jerusalem has almost entirely decided to boycott the elections. There is an Arab candidate but had the Arabs of Jerusalem come out to vote for that candidate they could really have re-shaped the city council and the mayor's office. But they choose to boycott instead.

While from the political point of view this is not very wise, it is certainly very telling.

Notice it does not matter to me who is running - rather who is voting.

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Syria Peace Conf Nov 23
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Nabil Elaraby, the head of the Arab League, announced that peace talks to resolve the conflict in Syria will take place on November 23 in Geneva.

Elaraby held a press conference in Cairo after meeting with the international envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi. He said: "I discussed the Syria file with Lakhdar Brahimi and it was decided that the Geneva meeting would take place on November 23 and arrangements are being made to prepare for this conference."

Not surprisingly, at the same news conference, during his statement, Brahimi said: "The date has not been officially set."

But we assume that the date is November 23 and the place will be Geneva.

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Egypt Arrests 400 Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Sky News in Arabic reported a huge story yesterday. Huge.

According to the station which is headquartered in Abu Dhabi, over the past few weeks Egypt has arrested 400 people in the Sinai. Of the 400, 100 were Palestinians.

All 400 were terrorists. All were part of organized terror cells.

There was also a quote from an Egyptian army source saying that Egypt has successfully discovered and destroyed 97% of the tunnels that cross between Egypt and Gaza.

This is s very important move in securing and maintaining safety in Egypt, as well as in the region.

Sky News in Arabic is an extremely reliable source. Launched in 2010 they partner with Bloomberg and with English language Sky based in London. Rupert Murdoch's News Data is their second largest shareholder.

Sky News in Arabic wants to directly compete with Al Jazeera. This kind of news coverage shows their style and their potential.

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Saudi Arabia & the Secuirty Council
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Thursday was a day of change and rotation in the Security Council
Saudi Arabia, Chad, Nigeria, Chile and Lithuania were elected by the UN General Assembly to sit on the Security Council. They will each serve a two-year term.

These five newly elected countries enter the fifteen member body replacing Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo who are all bowing out.

It remains to be seen how each of these counties will stand on the major issues placed before the Security Council. The real questions will revolve around their stands on Syria, on Iran and on other issues important to the West.

We know where Saudi Arabia stands, that is obvious. But Saudi Arabia declined and will not sit on the Security Council because they feel it is ineffective.

It is the other countries that still need to be evaluated. We still do not know what they have to say and how they will vote. We will, soon enough.

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What is Happening in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

What is happening in Syria?

Yesterday several dozen rebel groups in southern Syria announced that they will no longer unite under the leadership of the rebels in Turkey.

The Syrian National Coalition, which is the political arm of the Free Syrian Army rebel group, is headquartered in Turkey.

Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria there has been a lack of leadership. Those in exile spoke as if they were in charge. But as time passed, it became clear that really no one was in charge. Certainly not some group outside.

The Syrian National Coalition had neither real contact nor control over the rebels.

So now there is an official split between the leadership outside and the rebels inside Syria.

Until this official break there was, at least, the illusion of a link with Western powers that could help the rebels with humanitarian aid - and the Syrian National Coalition would try to smuggle that aid into Syria. All of that, pretense and reality, is now gone.

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The Assad's Try to Look Normal
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Asma, the wife of Syrian President Bashar Assad, appeared on Syrian TV yesterday to announce that she was in Syria - not hiding in Russia or London, her former hometown.

There have been rumors that the First Lady of Syria abandoned the greater family and took her three children, Hafez, Zein and Karim, to a safer place.

"I'm here, my husband and my children are in Syria ... I'm here today and I will be tomorrow," she said, interviewed by Syrian television.

At the same time Assad himself went to a mosque in Damascus to celebrate the holiday known as Eid or Eid al Adha. The Eid is the celebration of the near sacrifice of Ishmael by Abraham. It is the exact story of Isaac with son Ishmael replacing son Isaac. The celebration of the act of sacrifice is one of the holiest days in Islam.

The Assad family is trying to look normal. Bashar and Asma are trying to show that despite the crisis and the bloody civil war they are doing things that every other Muslim does during the Eid.

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2 Turks Do the Unthinkable
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Two Turkish students were arrested and charged in Poland for promoting racist propaganda. If convicted, they could serve up to three years in prison.

The deed was actually far more heinous than simply spreading a racist lie or slander.

These two Turks were in Majdanek Death Camp, located just outside of the city of Lublin. Majdanek was a horrific place. It was a murder factory.

The two Turkish students in question stood in front of a group of Israelis visiting Majdanek, saluted with the Nazi sign and shouted Heil Hitler.

The students engaged in this inappropriate and unacceptable behavior at the far end of the camp where a huge pile of ashes sits next to the crematorium and the murder pits. They desecrated the memory of Jews murdered in Majdanek as they stood alongside the ashes of nearly 100,000 victims, mostly Jewish, that are placed in a mound and partially covered.

This is not simply a joke which is what the Turkish students claim.
This is a desecration.

Shame on them.

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US F-35 w Israeli Helmet
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will be making the helmet for the new F- 35 fighter jet. The F-35 is the most advanced and most modern jet in the United States arsenal. The Israeli company Elbit developed the design for the helmet in conjunction with the US company American Rockwell.

The United States is scrapping the original design for the helmet which has been used until now and replacing it with the
Elbit/American Rockwell design. This new helmet is not simply a safety hat. It is actually a Helmet Mounted Display System (HMDS). Everything, including the entire cockpit and the camera showing the undercarriage of the plane, is displayed in the visor of the helmet.

This is a huge coup for Israel. Israel ordered 19 of the F-35's and the HMDS helmet will be standard on all the jets - even those sent to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

4,000 helmets are set to be manufactured.

Last week, during his visit to the United States, Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Yaalon visited the production plant in Texas where the F-35 is manufactured.

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What's Happening in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Many things happen at the same time in the Middle East. Some are good and some are devastating and they can happen only a few miles away from one another.

The danger in analysis is that often we look at one item only, not the total picture and so we do not get a realistic understanding of the situation.
Syria is under crisis.

Then things began to look better. A second chemical team has entered to dismantle the weapons. The international committee that monitors chemical weapons won the Nobel Peace Prize. These are all good signs.

But --- at the same time, there was a horrific massacre by the rebels of Assad supporters killing nearly 190 people and capturing over 200 more. 79 people were shot in the back of the head, the others at close range.

And then --- there was an air strike against a rebel group that killed 11 civilians. In a separate video, a group of rejoicing rebels stop a van, drag out the wounded and execute them.

And now, once again --- the rebels are fighting one another in Aleppo. For four days they have been pitched in battle, Islamists against non-Islamists. Even the leaders of al Qaeda have appeal to them to stop, and yet, they continue.

For lack of a better term there is anarchy in Syria.
And yes, things in Syria are better.

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Hajj Alert
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hajj is one of the pillars of Islam. It is the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, it includes Tawaf, which is the encircling of the Kaaba, the huge black rock.

Every year millions of Muslims from all over the world come to Mecca to celebrate, or as some say, to perform the Hajj which begins this year on October 13. And every year Saudi Arabia warns pilgrims not to use the event for political purposes.

Saudi Arabia is concerned - especially this year.

The Saudis have warned the Muslim Brotherhood not to disturb the peace of the Hajj. They have banned the "four finger banner" and any signs connected to Rabba which means "four" in Arabic.

Rabba, as a slogan and movement, originates with four people killed in a protest in a square, which has four sides (and is called rabba in Arabic) outside a Cairo mosque called the Rabbah Al Adwiyah Mosque.

The word four and the raising of four fingers have replaced the "V for Victory" among many protestors in the Islamic world over the past few months.

There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is correct to fear that the
Muslim Brotherhood is planning something. 95,000 security personnel have been positioned throughout Mecca and an additional 40,000 have been recruited and trained over the past few weeks - all in order to maintain law and order.

But that will not stop the Brotherhood. I expect trouble.

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Iran's Gestures
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran continues to make gestures ahead of next week's meeting in Geneva with the leaders of the Western world.

In one major concession cum gesture, the Iranians have cancelled their annual New Horizon Conference, also known as the Holocaust Denial Conference. The conference was scheduled for next month and among the 63 foreign guests expected to attend was David Duke, the former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan.

The British newspaper The Telegraph reported the cancellation on Thursday.

This conference was a central feature in the foreign policy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was one of those dramatic moments of the Iranian diplomatic year, one in which people made the most outrageous announcements about the West and about the Holocaust.

Even if nothing comes from next week's meeting with Iran, cancelling The New Horizon Conference is a big positive.

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Irans Strategy on Next Wk's Talks
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next week in Geneva (on October 15th and 16th) a conference will take place between Iran and the world powers about the current nuclear impasse.

In discussing the matter, the Iranian speaker of the parliament, who is also their former nuclear negotiator, gave a recipe for predicting the success or failure of the meetings.

Ali Larijani said that for the meeting to succeed the focus must not be on what Iran must do and what will happen if they do not do.

Rather, he said, the focus of the meeting should be different. From Iran's point of view "It mostly concerns building confidence rather than a commercial give-and-take."

Confidence building means that the world powers must stop threatening Iran. It means that instead of threatening, they must create a situation in which Iran is a participant in the dialogue and that the dialogue must lend the Iranians proper respect.

The problem with this Iranian point of view is that by placing Iran in this new position it almost certainly means relaxing sanctions against Iran. And that means that the Iranians have won.

And that means that the West will have lost all leverage.

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Iran Sits on UN Arms & Security Cmts
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has officially condemned a decision by the United Nations to appoint Iran to a special committee.

The committee will oversee disarmament and international security issues.

Israel asserts that the entire escapade is a charade. How, Israel asks, can they place a country on a committee to supervise arms and security when that country has been censured by the Security Council for violating fundamental international laws regarding international arms and world security?!

This entire episode calls into question the credibility of the UN.
How could they make such a foolish, foolhardy decision? The answer is simple ... they are foolish and foolhardy.

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Iran Demands Right to Enrich
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Guess what?

Iran is demanding the right to enrich uranium.

Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammed Javad Zarif made the announcement yesterday in a meeting with the deputy foreign minister of Switzerland who was in Iran on a visit.

"The mastery of civil nuclear technology, including the enrichment of uranium, on Iranian soil is the absolute right of Iran."

This really should not surprise anyone.

Of course Iran wants to control every aspect of their nuclear development program. And if Iran can control the enrichment part, they can control when and if they can make a bomb.

The foreign minister also reiterated a point that has been made over and over again. He said: "The events of recent years have shown that the approach of threats and sanctions have not ensured the interests and objectives of the other party, and the continuation of this approach is the repetition of past mistakes which cannot prevent Iran from mastering civilian nuclear technology."

This really means to say that, whatever the West thinks, Iran will do as Iran sees fit to do.

And that should not surprise anyone, either.

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In 1965 Koufax Made a Decision
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I spent a lot of time thinking about what happened on October 6, 1965. It was a Wednesday. I do not remember that day, but I know it is a day that shaped history.

It was the first day of the World Series between the Minnesota Twins and the LA Dodgers.

It was also Yom Kippur. And because it was Yom Kippur, Sandy Koufax the kid who made it from 48th Street in Boro Park, Brooklyn to the big leagues, said that he would not pitch in the opening game of the
World Series.

The decision was one which would shape the lives of millions of people - Jews and non-Jews alike. The press was stunned. How could Koufax choose not to play in the most important game of his life?

The answer was simple. Some things are more important than others.
More important, even, than baseball. It was more important to Koufax that he stand by his faith than by his team on that one day.
For him, tradition was important.

Sandy Koufax was not a religious man, he was a deeply Jewish man.
And for him, that meant Yom Kippur was more important than the first game of the World Series.

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Starting to Dismantle Syrian Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The plan to destroy the Syrian arsenal of chemical weapons is up and functioning. In Syria today, the UN together with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) began the slow process of destroying those chemicals which are part of the Syrian weapons depots.

While the OPCW is not a UN organization, it does work closely with the organization. The objective of the OPCW is to observe and supervise the Chemical Weapons Treaty which was signed by 190 member nations.

The task will be enormous.

Also on Sunday Moshe Yaalon, Israeli minister of defense, departs for the United States where he will meet with US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. Yaalon will also meet with UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, Jewish leaders and congressional leadership.

There is no doubt about what the talking points in these meetings will be. Iran, Iran, Iran, some Syria, Iran and then a little bit of Egypt and the rest of the region. The United States will try to push the Palestinian issue onto the agenda.

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Break Down in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah has pulled out of Syria.

Last month there were as many as 10,000 Hezbollah fighters in Syria. Today there are about 1,500.

Hezbollah succeeded in turning the tide in Syria, they successfully helped secure Bashar Assad's position. Now that there is a risk to the Assad forces and there is almost certainty that a lot of world attention will be placed on them, Hezbollah has returned home.

At the same time, rebel forces in Syria are once again fighting one another. Over the past few days major armed battles have flared up between al Qaeda rebels and non-al Qaeda rebels.

These battles between rebel forces will continue. They will probably end up being one of the most compelling reasons for the failure of the rebels in their attempt to topple and oust the Assad regime.

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Bibi Speaks in Pesian
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's interview for BBC Persian.

The claim is that they have 12 million viewers. Almost all of them are ex-patriots, but some people may be able to watch in Iran by gaming and hacking around the blocks that Iran has placed on the station.

Netanyahu quoted from Iranian President Rouhani's book. He said that he had it translated so that he would get a good understanding of what the Iranian president had written.

Bibi furthered the theme that he developed during his address before the General Assembly on Monday. He said that we are not "sadaeh lo," that is the Persian term for easily duped or suckers.

He said called the comments of the Iranian president were "harf e putch" which means sheer nonsense.

The interview was a tremendous success wherever it was seen. It was also historic. It is the first time an Israeli prime minister has ever done an interview with a Persian station outside of Israel.

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Iran's Cyber War Chief is Assassinated
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It seems that Iran's Head of Cyber Warfare was assassinated over the weekend.

Majtaba Ahmadi was found in a wooded area with two pistol shots to his chest. The shots were fired ad point blank range. It is almost certain that he was assassinated.

Since 2007 at least five Iranian weapons scientists have been assassinated. Iran blames the Israeli Mossad for the killings.

Up until now the victims have all been scientists working on nuclear systems or other advanced weapons system.

Ahmadi was the head of a weapon and defense system, but not in the conventional style. His was a very important position. He was responsible for attack strategies against Israel and against the West.

So although he was not a scientist in the conventional sense, Ahmadi was in an even more significant position and posed a greater risk to the Western world than others who were previously targeted.

Like with the other targeted assassinations, I do not think any more information will be forthcoming.

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Bibi @ THe UN
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was a significant day for many Middle East countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly in the afternoon. Using his speech as a means of communication with those countries with which Israel has no direct communication, Netanyahu sent out several messages.

The message sent to Iran was that Israel and, by extension, the Western world will not tolerate nuclear weapons. Netanyahu called on the West to keep up sanctions against Iran. Continued sanctions, he said, are important because Iran responds to those sanctions.

Meanwhile, in Syria the number of victims of the civil war reached a new threshold yesterday. 115,000 Syrians have lost their lives in this conflict.

And in the month of September 1000 lives were lost due to conflict in Iraq. The count continues.

In Egypt yesterday what was supposed to have been a massive protest was held. The demonstrators were there to protest against the new government that has ousted the democratically elected former president Mohammed Morsi. The protest drew only a depressing 100 people.

All in one day in the Middle East.

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Israel Youtube Show a Hit in Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The world is a very small place and often there are positive even if unintended consequences of our actions.

One of Israel's medical providers is called Clalit. This medical provider created a YouTube video in Arabic. The purpose of the video is to teach women in the Arabic sector about breast feeding. The provider expected to get a few hundred, perhaps even a thousand, hits.

One million and growing fast is well beyond their wildest hopes.
560,000 views from Saudi Arabia
168,000 from Egypt
90,000 from Iraq
71,000 Morocco
65,000 Algeria
42,000 from Jordan
Even 11,000 from Syria

Other successful videos put out by Clalit are about pregnancy, early detection of diseases and the importance of routine health checks.
Israel has one of the most advanced public health system in the world. Infants and mothers are required to see doctors three times in the first year of life in order to detect health problems at their earliest stages.

These Israeli YouTube videos are helping woman around the world, especially in the Arab world, to stay healthy.

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Peres Says Read Anne Frank
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli President Shimon Peres is in the Netherlands.

His first stop after arriving was the Anne Frank House. It is home in which a young girl named Anne described life in a secret room as she and her family hid from the Nazis before the entire family was deported to the death camps. It is the home made famous by the book called "Diary of a Young Girl."

Peres made a very insightful comment while at the House.
Peres said that he doubted that the leadership of Iran or Syria had read the diary.

The implication of this comment is that reading the diary written by young Anne Frank would immediately lend a sense of deep connection to the dangers of mass murder.

Anne Frank is a symbol of the grandeur of the human spirit as it confronts the horrors of mass murder. In her case, mass murder came in the guise of the Nazis.

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Egypt & Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 29. 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Gaza share a border, that is not news. The international media have, however, have turned border issues and restrictions into a centerpiece of their coverage for years.

Just a stone's throw from the Israel/Gaza border is the Egypt /Gaza border. Egypt controls that border and is much more protective of it than Israel is of theirs. The border between Egypt and Gaza has been closed and opened and then re-closed and re-opened again for months.

Because terrorists use the border as a way of entering Egypt from Gaza, the Egyptians have decided to restrict border crossings. Last year 65,000 people crossed into Egypt from Gaza during the months July, August and September. This year, during the same time period, only 14,000 crossed from Gaza into Egypt.

5,500 people are now stuck waiting on the border. They include university students returning home, people in need of medical care and business people. They just wait.

As for trade, no goods can cross from Egypt to Gaza.

I know why there is almost no coverage of this blockade. Covering this blockade would not fit the media model. It is not as interesting when Arabs oppress Arabs as it is when Israelis oppress Arabs. When Israel oppresses Arabs, that becomes newsworthy.

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Rouhani Denies Holocaust Too
By Micah Halpern

Saturday, September 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In an interview on NBC Hassan Rouhani, the new Iranian president, clearly demonstrated how he differed from his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Rouhani showed his true colors. He is a Holocaust denier. He is more subtle and more soft spoken about it than Ahmadinejad was, hence, he is much more effective. Rather than deny the entire Holocaust, Rouhani denies the details and the numbers

"The massacre by the Nazis was condemnable. We never want to sit by side with the Nazis," he said. "They committed a crime against Jews - which is a crime against Christians, against Muslims, against all of humanity."

"The Nazis committed a crime in World War II," he said. "As to the scale of the massacres, and the numbers that my predecessor mentions, let's leave that to the historians."

So the massacres happened - not the Holocaust.

And then he acknowledged that many were killed --- but he is leaving it to historians to debate the question of just how many.

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Terror Threat in India
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

India has received intelligence reports that the Mujahadin terrorist network is planning to attack and kidnap Jews.

And so, there is a serious alert in place around Jewish sites, synagogues and other places where Jews and Israelis frequent.

In 2008, 173 people were killed in simultaneous terrorist attacks in India that targeted Western sites and as well as a Jewish center/synagogue.

Terrorists do not distinguish between Jews and Zionists. That distinction is a myth perpetrated by Arafat to lend legitimacy to his rabid hatred of Israel.

Today, those including Jews who use this argument, are simple anti-Semites.

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Terrorists Didn't Harm Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The terrorist group that murdered 169 people in Kenya said that they carefully tested people to make certain that Muslims were not killed and that the foreigners who were killed were legitimate targets.

The terrorists separated Muslims from non-Muslims. They asked their hostages to name the mother of Mohammed. If they could not provide the correct answer, they would be shot.

The correct answer is Amenah bint Wahb.

According to an AP report: "In an email exchange Wednesday with the Associated Press, al-Shabab said the jihadis 'carried out a meticulous vetting process' so the Muslims would not be harmed."

It is shocking ... But it is important to understand that this kind of division and this kind of question determines life and death.

The Kenya terrorists were committed to wiping out the enemies of Islam. They did not want to attack fellow Muslims.

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What is Happening In Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The world's attention had been focused on Syria and Iran. Now that the United Nation General Assembly is in full throttle the focused has shifted to the leaders of the United States and Iran, Presidents Obama and Rouhani.

But it's a big world out there and whether we pay attention or not, situations are evolving and at times, devolving. Take Egypt, for example.

Egypt has been playing hardball with the Muslim Brotherhood. Some Western news agencies covered the Egyptian decision to confiscate Brotherhood bank accounts, most did not. The Egyptian court ruled that the Muslim Brotherhood is no longer legal.

And the Egyptian army has been sweeping through the country, especially the Sinai, confronting the al Qaeda cells.

Meanwhile, the Brotherhood and al Qaeda have been creating havoc and they have been killing Egyptians especially - Christians and police.

Since July 3 when the revolt that unseated then-President Morsi began, over 100 Egyptian police have been killed. Last week a terror attack against a police bus killed 15 policemen.

Under the semi-cloak of silence, or perhaps preoccupation, current Egyptian leadership is dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood. They have successfully dismantled the entire Muslim Brotherhood leadership by arresting them and now they have taken all their money. All that remains is mopping up in rural areas where the Brotherhood is still strong.

Within the next week we will see the end of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. They will not be gone, they will be underground, they will be forced into hiding.

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US - Iran Accidental Meet @ UN
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 24, 2013

I've Been thinking:

It looks like President Obama will probably meet new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during the United Nations General Assembly.

The meeting will be hard to choreograph, it must look as if it is an accidental encounter. US President Obama is scheduled to speak at 4 pm while Iranian President Rouhani is scheduled for 11 pm.

The Americans have not discounted the possibility of a handshake. Now they will spend hours coordinating where and how an accidental / coordinated meeting can appear spontaneous.

Such is the greatness of the UN general assembly


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Back To Normal: Israeli Security
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Benny Ganz, Israel's chief of staff, called a meeting with Nitzan Alon, his general in charge of central command.

Ganz needed a threat assessment.

Earlier in the day in the city of Hebron a Palestinian sniper hit and killed an Israeli soldier named Gal Kobi.

The chief of staff needed to understand if there was a flaw in security and if there is a flaw, he needs he needs to correct it. Israeli soldiers should not be picked off by snipers while on patrol.

The assassination of Kobi Gal is another shocking reminder of the gritty, day to day, risks taken by members of the IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces. It is a reminder of the fragility of what we so cavalierly call "Israeli security."

For weeks we have been focusing on global risks. Iran, Syria, the ramifications of a strike by the United States. Concern over global risks has overshadowed the daily risks and the daily threats that confront Israel.

This sniper attack was a rude re-awakening - tragic, unfortunate, but a necessary re-awakening.

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IAEA Attempt To Attack Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The UN atomic energy watch dog, the IAEA, just held its annual meeting. This year the major resolution that they tried to put through was to force Israel to dismantle their nuclear weapons - and it failed.

On Friday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) rejected a resolution calling on Israel to join the global nuclear arms treaty.

The proposal had the support of Iran and the Arab League. But in the end, with 51 votes against the proposal, 43 votes for the proposal and 32 abstentions, the proposal failed. This was not their first attempt and it will not be their last.

Those in favor of the proposal called Israel and her status a double standard that prevented a nuclear free region.

Israel has never official declared that they have nuclear weapons.
They have a nuclear power plant in Dimona and several experimental reactors. Those in the know suggest that Israel gets around the nuclear weapons issue by keeping everything in component sections, easily assembled if the circumstances should require a nuclear weapon.

The reality is that one cannot compare a democracy with a system of checks and balances with the theocracies and totalitarian governments in the region.

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Israel Accuses Iran of Buying Time
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has accused Iran of buying time.

The possibility of diplomatic interaction between the United States and Iran has people talking and pundits preaching.

Israel has made their point of view very clear. Iran is using the diplomatic card as a tool to buy more time to further advance their nuclear program.

Israel is warning the West. Israel is saying that Iran specializes in this form of manipulation. That for years now, whenever there was a breakthrough and Iran showed flexibility it was a farce, it was a ruse, it was a charade.

Israel's POV is that there has never been any real change in Iran's direction. They are saying that the Iranians have consistently and doggedly marched toward nuclear technological development. And that is not about to change now.

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Iranians Changing Message
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

After much fanfare and discussion in the Hebrew, Iranian, Arabic and
European press it seems that Iran has begun to back peddle.

Originally, Ali Akbar Salehi, the Head of the Iranian Atomic Energy organization, said that Iran would close Fordo, their uranium enrichment site, and stop uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

Now Iran is saying that they will not close Fordo.

Is it a just a game? Is Iran deliberately saying two contradictory things? Or, perhaps, is there disagreement inside Iranian leadership? Whatever the situation the Iranians misleading us.

The press has been filled with coverage of the potential for new
diplomatic interaction between the US and Iran. Events at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly will be a very helpful indicator in terms of what Iran really is up to.

We just need to watch and see what, if anything, develops.

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Egypt Reopens Gaza Crossing
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Late on Wednesday Egypt opened the border with Gaza.

The border had been closed for over a week due after suicide bombers attacked Egyptian soldiers. The terrorists came from Gaza.

Thousands of Gazans were clamoring to get across for reasons varying from medical treatment in Egypt to business.

This is a hugely important lesson. After a terror attack that originated in Gaza and was perpetrated against Egypt --- Egypt shut Gaza off. They did what they needed to do.

No discussion.
No condemnation.
And no coverage in the Western press.

None.

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Chinese Hackers?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Almost all security today also involves cyber security. Every bank, organization, company - even churches and synagogues, must have good cyber security systems. Otherwise, it is an open market for hackers.

Hackers want to steal. Mostly, they want information. They want information more than they want money. Information is power and if one competitor secretly accesses another competitor's industrial secret, they have accessed a gold mine.

Until now, the assumption had been that the Chinese government was behind some of the biggest industrial hacks. But recently, Symantec - also known as Norton anti-virus - one of the biggest computer security companies published a 28 page report stating that a private hit team out of China was the real culprit behind these corporate hacks.

Symantec called the team Hidden Lynx. The assertion is that 50 to 100 very gifted, variable, multi skilled hackers are employed to attack sites on behalf of their client. They will and can undertake several projects simultaneously.

Not everyone agrees with Symantec. Some have said that the hacking group is government /military in nature. Almost everyone is in agreement that the hacking is out of China because of the codes and the Trojans that are used. However, because of the nature of the targets and the multiple, simultaneous projects which are almost always about gaining information that could help in a buyout takeover or stock maneuver Symantec stands firm in asserting that Hidden Lynx is a gun for hire.

The real lesson in all this --- protect your computer.

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Iran Looking For Way Out
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Der Spiegel has reported that Iran might be willing to shut down their nuclear enrichment plant in exchange for a lifting of sanctions against them.

The idea was floated by the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi. He indicated that Iran's new president will make the proposal at the end of September when he is in NYC for the UN General Assembly. Salehi referred to a "compromise" and said that among the leadership in Iran there has always a movement for compromise.

Hassan Rouhani, when he was elected this summer as the new president of Iran, promised to change the way Iran was perceived in the world. And he promised to break the sanctions.

This may be one of his initial steps in that direction.

Rouhani also pledged to change the tone and the course of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Everyone should note that while Salehi is now head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization he was foreign minister under Ahmadinejad. He is the only carry over from the previous administration and he holds a PhD in nuclear engineering from MIT.

Salehi understands the United States very well having spent six years in Cambridge, MA.

Ironically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in and out of MIT during the exact same six year period earning a bachelor's degree in architecture and a master's degree in management.

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Schools Open in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It was back to school in Syria yesterday. The day came as a welcome moment in a land torn by civil war.

The start of school will bring structure and stability to many children who have spent so long hiding from the violence.

Ironically, the school year almost did not begin because of the threat of potential attacks. This time, however, it was the US threat to launch a missile strike that almost derailed the school year. But not in the way you would anticipate.

In order to protect soldiers who were stationed in high risk target areas, the Syrians moved them into schools for protection. And now since the threat of the missile strike has subsided the soldiers are no longer in need of schools for alternative quarters and they have been made available for the opening of school.

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Iran is Learning from The Situation
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's comments on and interpretation of the deal that saves Syria from a missile strike are very illustrative of the way the Iranians really think.

Ali Larijani, Iranian speaker of the parliament and former nuclear arms point man, called the deal a sign of US "rationality." Larijani's comments were broadcast throughout Iran on Sunday on all news networks and media outlets.

In addition, the new President of Iran, Rouhani, will meet with British Foreign Minister Hague in NYC at the United Nations General Assembly.

There are actually rumors that Rouhani might also meet Obama. There have been and continue to be overtures to set up a private summit between Iranian and US leaders.

That is one of the great parts of the GA. With so many world leaders "milling around," it looks and seems matter of fact to "accidently" meet and greet.

In the world of social diplomacy, at least, it looks as if Iran is not averse to learning lessons from the Russia and the United States.


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Al Qaeda and 9-11
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In honor of 9-11 the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman Zawahiri, released a video on the internet. Zawahiri called on all of al Qaeda to carry out a large attack against the United States "even if it takes year to organize it."

This should come as no surprise. Zawahiri needs to make certain that al Qaeda stays relevant and to do so he must keep their 9-11 attacks prominent and center most in the minds of potential recruits.

To that end Zawahiri periodically reinforces the success of the 9-11 attack and then claims great victories over the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. He calls on his followers for fight the US and instructs them to do whatever it takes to strike at the enemy.

Zawahiri is telling his followers that they should plan attacks and perpetrate them in the United States even if it takes a year to plan them. And of course, Zawahiri praises the Boston Marathon attack.

"The Boston incident confirms to the Americans ... that they are not facing individuals, organizations or groups, but they are facing an uprising Ummah ( the entire Muslim community of the World), that rose in jihad to defend its soul, dignity and capabilities."

"We should bleed America economically by provoking it to continue in its massive expenditure on its security, for the weak point of America is its economy, which has already begun to stagger due to the military and security expenditure."

Al Qaeda is stepping up their game. The leadership is intensifying their operations so that al Qaeda appears to be the central force challenging Western and external influences within the Muslim world.

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What Syrians in Israel Think
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Since the conflict in Syria began, 86 Syrians have been brought to and treated in Israeli hospitals. There are 14 Syrians in Israeli hospitals right now.

Hassan Shaalan, a journalist for YNET in Israel, went to speak to some of the patients recuperating in Western Galilee Hospital which is located in the city Nahariyah in the North of Israel.
All of them, without exception, explained that they wanted a US strike against Assad ASAP.

A 20-year-old mother of a year-and-a-half old baby said that "I'd rather stay in Israel until the war is over. The people of the Syrian army are not human. They treat us like animals. I want Obama to attack certain locations in Syria without waiting for sources who can't understand our circumstances for approval. If there's no attack, I hope someone more courageous replaces him."

Another patient said: "Here in Israel I feel completely safe, but I'm worried about my family because I don't know where they are or how they are doing."

"In Syria, we live in danger and are prepared for death at any moment. I was surprised to hear that Obama went back on his decision to attack in Syria. I'm all for an attack so that he can protect us from the criminals who are murdering citizens for no reason. Canceling the attack leaves us abandoned. It proves the US doesn't care about us."

These Syrians represent a very small and very slanted sample. But their point of view is extremely telling.

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Arrogance-Israel's Worst Enemy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon identified a serious worry in the Israeli defense system.

I quote: "We must remember that our worst enemy is arrogance, haughtiness ..."

"In the fog that covers the Middle East we must understand that we need to trust only ourselves and build an army that will deter any enemy."

This is a very important lesson in reality.

As good as Israel is at defense, Israelis must remember that they still need to strive for perfection. They may not behave arrogantly just because they have achieved certain levels of proficiency.

And in the end the only people who will defend Israel - is Israel.

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What The Russian Plan Means
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The proposal offered by Russia to solve the Syrian weapons of mass destruction issue is an all around win. Everyone, from Putin and Obama to Israel and Iran, come out winners. There is only one loser - one big time loser.

Assad emerges a big winner. The president of Syria dodged a set of tomahawk missiles. There is no real challenge to him or to his policies and he continues fighting the rebels without any threat to his infrastructure.

Obama is the next big winner. John Kerry was the first to float the possibility of this solution in a throwaway line on Sunday during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

It does not matter that Putin then publicly came up with the idea and totally out maneuvered Obama because Obama and the US are initiators of the compromise. Putin and Obama both emerge as major forces capable of resolving international issues and crises.

Israel is very pleased. Pulling back the threat of a US strike against Syria relieves the pressure of a counter strike against Israel by Syria, Hezbollah or Iran. Israel was prepared and ready for an aggressive response but even then there were still significant risks. Now those risks have been eliminated. They just hope that the plan is in place quickly before Assad can hide or give the weapons to Hezbollah.

Iran is happy in that its proxy, Assad, is still totally entrenched in his position and back on the way towards squashing his rebels.
Iran understands that Russia is a formidable foil to the United States and now they have a realistic assessment of US/ Russian interaction in the Middle East. And, best of all, Iran has not been threatened at all.

Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey were all potential targets of retaliation. The problem has been solved and they are no longer in the crosshairs.

Assad, Obama, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar aside, the biggest winner of all is Putin, the Russian head of state. The Russians have turned themselves into the kingpins that put world agreements together and that defend their minions.

Russia was on the wane but now, after Putin's stubborn display, the world knows that when push comes to shove, he can cobble out a solution that works best for everyone.

The rebels are the big losers. Rebel fighters lost any and all backing they had from the West and Assad's position has been internationally affirmed. Their loss is tremendous.

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Why Russia Sides w/ Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It became perfectly clear during the meetings in Russia last week.

Putin won the battle. The Russian leader told Obama, simply and clearly, that Russia was supporting Syria. Putin said that he was not convinced by the evidence presented to him by Obama.

Obama had hoped that the evidence would speak for itself. US Secretary of State John Kerry, in his own way, is also trying to convince his counterpart in Russia to take action against Bashar of Syria, but his arguments, too, have fallen on deaf ears.

Russia is not interested in the truth. Russia is not interested in any red lines. Russia needs to back its ally. Russia needs to show Syria and all the other Russia minions that when there is a conflict with the United States their Russia patrons will defend them and sponsor them no matter what.

And it is no accident that the Russian defense tactic includes making the United States look foolish in the international community.

The main point for Russia is not gassing nor is it the death of innocents. Russia is only about power and about alliances.
Challenging the United States meets Russia's national interests.

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What Israel Thinks About the US
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel determines alliances based on shared interests. Israel's long term friendships are based on mutual values. The relationships are, for the most part, ongoing. That does not mean, however, that when it comes to trust and reliability, these relationships are not continuously evaluated and re-evaluated.

In terms of the relationship between Israel and the United States the fundamental question that is always asked is: Will the United States be there when the chips - military, political and diplomatic - are down?

Recent inaction, actually, the paralysis of inaction, on the part of the United States vis a vis chemical attacks in Syria has forced Israel into a new understanding of their long term and esteemed friend.

Israel now understands, unequivocally, that the United States is not capable of acting quickly in initiating a military strike. That does not mean that the friendship is tattered. Quite the opposite - it means that Israel has a better sense of the limitations of the United States in the fields of military and political decision making.

Israel must reassess and recalibrate. Israel must decide how best to utilize their friendship with the United States in defending itself against Iran and other regional threats.

This does not make the United States weaker. It means that the reaction time of the United States is slower than Israel and the world expected it would be.

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A Bird Is Arrested -- Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

This bird's name was Menes. Last week Menes was captured and arrested in Egypt. Today Menes is dead.

The story has become commonplace. Only this time, it ended horribly.

Last week a stork named Menes was arrested by the Egyptians. The stork was arrested as a spy. The bird was placed in its own cell in a police station and an investigation ensued. There was a GPS tracking system on its back and a tag on its leg. They charge was espionage.

In the end it was confirmed that the bird was simply a bird. It was confirmed that the devices were not spy equipment but ornithological tools that help track migrating birds from Africa to Europe and back.

Menes was finally released into a nature preserve. It flew to an island in the Nile. But a day or so later the stork was hunted down, killed and eaten - by human Egyptian predators, not animal predators.

These stories repeat themselves and at a certain point they are no longer funny. They are simply sad. And not just mean for Menes and the other birds.

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Jordan On High Alert
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Jordanian Air Force is on high alert.

Jordan wants to make certain that they can protect the country from a Syrian strike. They know that they are considered a very weak link and because of their friendship with the United States, Assad may strike at them.

In order to mollify the potential threat Jordan has announced that they will not permit any strike by a foreign force from Jordan.
There is a US air force base located there, but as of now, it is not in the game. Jordan hopes that this small gesture will drop them in the target priorities of Syria.

By limiting an attack from their borders Jordan is reaffirming the all too well known mantra that Arabs do not attack Arabs.

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Egypt Sees Difficulty
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is learning a very difficult lesson.

The Egyptians have discovered that it is much easier to control and even destroy a political party than it is a terror group.

Within the cities where they are firmly established, they Muslim Brotherhood has been shackled.

But Egypt is having enormous difficulty securing the desert where al Qaeda is roaming. Al Qaeda roams the desert popping up here and then popping up there. They appear, re-appear. They cannot be brought under control.

The Brotherhood went public. The desert terrorists remain nameless.

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US Strike & International Law
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A new challenge is emerging regarding a military strike against Syria. Not the challenge that pundits, lawmakers, jurists and analysts have been discussing. This is not about leadership or decision making.

Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, has said clearly that a strike against Syria without UN Security Council agreement would be a violation of international law. And he is absolutely correct.

The challenge is whether the United States will be able to withstand the ire of the international community and take a stand against the world, for the benefit of the world.

Only a few members of the world community will side with America.

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The US Message
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry testified before a Senate hearing yesterday.

Kerry explained that people in the (Mid East) region are watching what the US does concerning Syria. He said that America's friends such as Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel are watching the US to see if and whether we will act and if our word is our word.

And yesterday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the same thing in no uncertain terms when speaking to the same committee. He said the credibility of the US regarding Iran is at stake. He said: "A refusal to act would undermine the credibility of America's other security commitments - including the president's commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon."

More specifically, Israel gets it. Israel understands, now more than ever, that the rhetoric of US action under this presidency is actually a process and it requires an evaluation and then a decision and then maybe a symbolic gesture. Gaining that understanding was an important lesson for Israel.

And Israel now has confirmed for itself that, with regard to Iran, US rhetoric might be good - but US action will be very slow. Israel knows full well now that they are alone in action and that they can expect only back-up from the United States.

When it comes to Iran, Israel will make operational decisions in seconds while the US will involve itself in briefings and discussions that last for weeks. Israel will still need to get the green light for any operation from the US, but it will not be a joint operation.

But - this should not come as any real surprise to anyone. Except, maybe, to President Obama.

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US Marine Site Get Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The US Marines recruiting site joins the ranks of The New York Times as yet another website hacked by the Syrian Electronic Army. The SEA is a group of hackers that side with Assad. They hack into sites and replace original content with banners and posts that support Assad and reject the rebels.

The New York Times was hit twice in a single week. Twitter and HuffPost have also been recently attacked. Earlier in the year SEA hacked into the AP Twitter site and posted a news report that the White House had been bombed and that President Obama had been injured.

The weak link is Melbourne IT, the source of the servers. SEA accesses sites through Melbourne and then quickly makes the switch.
In some cases it takes hours to make the correction.
Melbourne IT took responsibility for the NYT - but given the continued barrage of successful hackings it seems clear that Melbourne has not adequately sealed their servers.

The Syrian Electronic Army wrote a note to ABC News saying "When we hacked media we do not destroy the site but only publish on it if possible, or publish an article [that] contains the truth of what is happening in Syria ... So if the USA launch attack on Syria we may use methods of causing harm, both for the U.S. economy or other." Excuse the grammar and syntax, this is a direct quote.

It is annoying, infuriating and frustrating - but the hacking damage could potentially be much worse. SEA is just trying to make a point - they are focusing on content, not destroying or taking over the site.

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Palestinians on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

What do the Palestinians think about the Syrian crisis and about a US strike?

Fatah, the main umbrella group of the PLO, called a meeting in of their affiliates to discuss the matter. The meeting was held in Ramallah. At the meeting Fatah made a formal statement that rejected any military intervention in Syria and stating that they, Fatah, stood for a diplomatic settlement.

Until this meeting Fatah had not taken sides with either Assad or with the rebels.

Hamas is more complicated. Hamas military leadership sided against Assad from the start of the uprising and they have been exiled from Syria. They continue to side with the rebels. But now one component of Hamas political leadership has stated that they, too, want a diplomatic resolution and that they, too, reject any outside military intervention.

The Palestinians are divided when it comes to Syria. There are serious divisions within Hamas as to how to handle Syria and the PLO does not want to take a stand.

The Palestinians are united, however, when it comes to spouting rhetoric that says Israel will gain from the conflict and that Israel is behind attempts to strike Syria.

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Israel Frustrated By US Decision
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel was shocked by the US President Obama's decision to delay a strike against Syria until getting approval from Congress.

The Israelis feel that the time lag leaves them open.

Israel will be on 24/7 high defense status alert until a decision is made - and then again, until the strike. The hesitancy, the foot dragging, the insecurity this decision demonstrates is not what bothers Israelis the most. It is that this decision --- not to make a decision --- is an about face that changes the momentum and diminishes any chance President Obama ever had of linking the strike to a teaching moment for the world.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Israelis an interim assurance telling them that, "Israel is peaceful and self-assured.
Our people know that we are well-prepared for any scenario."
Referencing Obama's disincentive to attack Netanyahu said, "Israeli citizens should also know that our enemies have very good reasons to not test our strength and power."

After a US strike against Syria, Israel becomes the only on-the-ground, local, identifiable, target for Syria, Iran or Hezbollah to attack. And even if the US only sends 10 or 15 Tomahawk Cruise missiles, Syria will most likely need to respond. They will respond so as to save face both internally and in the greater Arab world.

If Congress chooses to launch an attack against Syria, Syria will most likely launch rockets into Israel.

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Russia Has its Interest in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and China are doing their best to make certain that the United States does not strike Syria. But their reason for doing this is not just because the Russians and Chinese want to derail US interests and objectives.

Russian and China have their own economic and regional interests at play here. And those interests, which include oil and access, would be severely compromised if there was a US Strike against Syria.

This is serious business. Russia has sent another two naval vessels to the region. The US has added a fifth destroyer and is keeping both their aircraft carriers in the area for the interim.

The spectrum of responses by other countries in the region to a US strike on Syria could range from a bored yawn to a complete rejection of all outside influences. Ensuing tensions could result in Russia losing significant influence in the region - and even in the world.

The Russians do not want that to happen. So Russia is doing everything in her power to prevent a US attack of any kind.

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Israelis Panic - Get Gas Masks
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

For about a week now, Israelis have been experiencing a communal, albeit minor, panic attack.

People have been swarming to gas mask distribution centers and getting gas masks, filters and atropine injections.

This renewed surge towards gas mask preparedness comes in response to a series of serious, rhetorical, threats from both Syria and Iran. Syria and Iran have been making it known that if anyone attacks Syria, Israel will bear the brunt of the retaliation, and many Israelis are taking them at their word.

Understandably, Israelis are frightened. And the best way to defend themselves is by making certain that their loved ones have their gas masks. The religious community, by the way, is upset because there are not enough masks for bearded men- but there are never enough masks for the bearded community.

Honestly, Israelis should not be so fearful. There is very little chance that either Syria or Iran will strike Israel if there is an America or Western surgical attack against Damascus.

Priority number one for Bashar Assad is survival and an attack against Israel that would surely result in an Israeli counterstrike would potentially destroy his entire regime. Assad and Iran both know that.

So while there may be an errant rocket that lifts off from Syria and lands in Israel, no chemical weapons and no planned air force or missile onslaught will be heading their way. At least, not now and not because of any action taken by the United States or other Western forces.

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Who Used Gas in Syria?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rouhani, the new president of Iran, unequivocally condemned the use of chemical weapons in Syria. It appears that between 100 and 650 people were killed by the gas attack. It was an atrocious and vicious indiscriminate murder of innocent civilians.

"The Islamic Republic gives notice to the international community to use all its might to prevent the use of these weapons anywhere in the world, especially in Syria." That, according to the Mehr news agency, is a quote from Rouhani of Iran.

There's more: "We completely and strongly condemn the use of chemical weapons, because the Islamic Republic of Iran is itself a victim of chemical weapons." That quote attributed by Rouhani came from ISNA

"Many of the innocent people of Syria have been injured and martyred by chemical agents and this is unfortunate." Also from ISNA.

Iran, having been the victim of Saddam Hussein's murderous gassing attacks, is very sensitive when it comes to chemical weapons.

Assad has denied using the gas. He has actually argued saying why would he use gas - that he has nothing to gain. The tide of the rebellion had already shifted and he was winning the conflict.
Using gas, his argument goes, would just draw in the United States and the West.

Iran backs Assad. And Assad would do nothing to topple that relationship. Add to that the fact the Iranians are absolutely opposed to gassing Muslims, even enemy Muslims, and a serious question emerges.

The gassing was done, but by whom?

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Al Qaeda in Lebanon Attacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The rockets shot from Southern Lebanon into Israel were part of a much larger regional conflict.

Read the explanation given by the Azzam Abdullah Brigades, the group proudly claiming responsibility. They are a Sunni, anti-Hezbollah, al Qaeda affiliated group. The group explains that they shot 122 millimeter GRAD rockets into Israel in order to attack "the cities of Nahariya and Akko in occupied Palestine."

They further explain the change from a state of calm to a decision to launch rockets "as part of the resumption of the jihad against the Jews."

They said: "We've frozen the activity for the sake of the blessed Syrian revolution. Numerous developments - mainly the blatant Iranian-Hezbollah intervention in the Syrian revolution - have forced us to freeze our activity against the Jews."

"Iran and Hezbollah have formed a strategic alliance in the region and coordinated their positions with regards to the Syrian revolution. They worked to undermine the blessed revolution."

They go on to say a "green light given by Israel and the Western countries to Hezbollah in the fight against our people in Syria so that Israel could safeguard its security will not provide it with security. Rather, it will bring it closer to the fire of the jihadi fighters and make it much more exposed to them. In addition, it will make Israel a preferred target for the Sunnis."

From the point of view of Sunni al Qaeda terrorists shooting these rockets gave the "Jewish conquerors an indication of the quality of rockets in our possession. Haifa should be decorated with the most magnificent shrouds to greet our rockets."

More importantly, from the Azzam Abdullah Brigades point of view it exposed Hezbollah's "false claims regarding its hatred of Israel and the false threats made by the organization's secretary general (Hassan Nasrallah). The attack challenged (Hezbollah) to open fire on Israel."

These are attacks against Israel but they are also attacks against Hezbollah, Iran and Assad.

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How the US Will Strike
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Now that US Secretary of State John Kerry has publicly and unequivocally announced that the Syrians have used gas to murder civilians, the Obama administration must decide whether to take action or not take action against the Assad regime.

If the United States does strike Syria, what will the attack look like?

It will probably be a coordinated US / British attack. It will not be a UN-backed attack because the Russians will use their clout in the Security Council to block any act of intervention in Syria.

The best options available to the US and Britain would involve airstrikes using either planes or smart missiles. Smart bombs are probably the best choice here because they are the less risky and can be guided by unmanned drones.

The Tomahawk missile is the classic smart bomb. The Tomahawk costs about $500,000 each. There are four US destroyers in Mediterranean, each with ninety Tomahawks. The United States used 124 Tomahawks against Ghadaffi in Libya. They are surgically accurate and have a range of 1200 miles.

Targeted sites will not be the nine chemical weapons storage depots in Syria. The spill out would be too dangerous. Targets would be command and control centers, integrated air defense systems, missile sites, launching pads and security bunkers.

The 155 Brigade of the 4th Armored Division - the Syrian group that reportedly perpetrated the gas attack would definitely be hit.

If the US and Britain decide to strike their strike will be short but their point will be loud and clearly made.

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Assad's Chutzpah
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Chutzpah!

That is the word that best describes Syrian President Bashar Assad's action over the past few days.

Chutzpah is a Yiddish word. It needs no translation. It is probably best explained as absolute gall. It describes a person whose behavior represents the heights of arrogance.

Last week Assad invited the UN team to inspect and investigate his use of non-conventional weapons and gassing. While they were there, as the entire world watched, someone unleashed what appears to a huge lethal attack of gas.

All eyes are on Syria. Conventional wisdom says Assad's men did it. There is, as always, a contrary view. That view has it that the rebels are using gas now and have used gas in the past. My money is on Assad's men.

Now US President Obama must decide if he should act against Assad.
He needs to decide what he should do if he does act. If the United States attacks Assad and helps al Qaeda win (which is exactly what would happen), it will extremely destructive to US interests.

What Chutzpah. What a mess.

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What Abbas Fears Most
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Obscurity is what frightens the Palestinians and Mahmoud Abbas more than anything else.

Given all the drama in the Middle East right now, Palestinians fear that their issue has been relegated to the back burner. They fear that their issue will have neither the resonance nor the power to influence world leaders to pressure Israel into a resolution that is most suitable toward their side.

So, the Palestinians are embarking on a huge diplomatic push to make certain that world powers see their point of view.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius was just in Ramallah to meet with Palestinians President Mahmoud Abbas. Fabius understands the Palestinian fear. The two leaders concluded that resolving the Palestinian issue should remain a priority and will "contribute to peace and stability in the region."

At a press conference after their meeting Abbas said: "When there was an opportunity to resume negotiations, we took it without looking at what was going on around us."

The problem is that the Palestinians issue pales in comparison to the many crises now engulfing the Middle East.

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Targeting Beards In Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the immediate crisis in Egypt is puttering out.

The best indication of the cessation of conflict is that on Friday, after Muslim prayers, almost no one went to the streets to protests. The largest group of protesters numbered about one hundred people.

There is no doubt that, in terms of human life, the ousting of Morsi was costly. The death toll is about 900 so far, 100 of them police. And so now the question is, was it worth the price.

There is still a very strong anti-Muslim Brotherhood tone in Egypt.
The media is broadcasting footage of Brotherhood men shooting at the police and army. In one broadcast Brotherhood thugs seen beating a man after he was thrown off the roof of an apartment in Alexandria.

In Egypt, people with beards are the symbol of Muslim piety. As a way of combating profiling, pious, non-political, non-activist men are shaving off their beards. Pop up barber shops are appearing throughout the country. That is because bearded men are automatically targeted for suspicion and intimidation. And almost all Brotherhood men wear beards.

So now there is a crackdown on bearded men.

The Muslim Brotherhood has not been able to sustain public outrage at the ousting of Morsi. Combine that atrophy with intimidation and a lack of extremist leadership and it looks like peace and stability are making a comeback in Egypt.

Free and democratic elections are on the way. I just hope that, this time, the powers that be will not permit non-democratic parties to seek election. But this is Egypt, so who knows?

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4 Rockets Hit Israel From Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Four rockets were shot from Southern Lebanon into Israel yesterday. There were no injuries. At least one of the four was intercepted by
the Iron Dome anti-missile system.

Conventional wisdom is that Hezbollah did not fire these missiles.

Hezbollah wants to keep things quiet on their front so that Israel does not retaliate. Hezbollah wants to attack Israel on its own terms. So this missile strike was not Hezbollah and definitely not Shiites. This was an attack by a Sunni Jihadist group, maybe even a group affiliated with al Qaeda.

A few hours after the attack a Lebanese Sheikh named Siraj a-Din Zrikat tweeted that the "Abdallah al Aza'am Birgardes and the Ziad al Jarah Squadrons" were responsible for the rocket attack against Israel.

And then the Sheikh attacked Hezbollah for not attacking Israel. He called it protecting Israel. He tweeted that: "Hezbollah's responsibility of protecting Israel will - God willing - become a difficult task."

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US Will Not Intervene in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The AP published a letter sent by General Martin E. Dempsey to Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY) laying out the United States point of view on intervention in Syria. Engel is the ranking member on the Committee on Foreign Affairs

The letter is dated August 19. It is extremely telling and will no doubt upset those clamoring for US intervention in Syria. Here are some salient points:

"Syria today is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing one among many sides."

"It is my belief that the side we choose must be ready to promote their interests and ours when the balance shifts in their favor. Today, they are not."

"We can destroy the Syrian air force. The loss of Assad's air force would negate his ability to attack opposition forces from the air, but it would also escalate and potentially further commit the United States to the conflict. Stated another way, it would not be militarily decisive, but it would commit us decisively to the conflict."

"The use of U.S. military force can change the military balance." Then Dempsey added. "But it cannot resolve the underlying and historic ethnic, religious and tribal issues that are fueling this conflict."

General Dempsey is correct.

The US should stay out of the fray in Syria. They should help only by sending humanitarian aid which can and will help. There is no way the rebels will support US interests - and it is very possible that even with US interference, Assad will still emerge the victor.

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Iran's New Pres Picks Cabinet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rohani, the new president of Iran, is putting his cabinet together.

Rohani assumed office on August 3. He has been touted as a more open and more liberal leader than Ahmadinejad. He has publicly made statements that repudiate the stands taken by his predecessor - especially on foreign affairs and sanctions.

Rohani has already appointed the new head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization. It is a position that the new president knows well, it is a position that he once occupied.

The newly appointed head is Ali Akbar Salehi, he is the former foreign minister of Iran and he is perfect for this position.

Salehi will not function as the nuclear negotiator, rather, he is the representative of Iran to all international nuclear organizations and it is he who will be setting the tone on all nuclear issues. Most importantly, he is in charge of all of Iranian nuclear facilities.

Like Rohani, Selehi is considered to be a pragmatic leader and a diplomat, not an extremist like the former head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization Abasi Davani who was a perfect fit for the Ahmadinejad model.

This is not a new Iran, do not be misled. It is instead a slightly altered Iran.

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Iran Wants to Teach Hacking
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced that courses in computer hacking will be added to their senior high school curriculum. The Iranians want to enlist
high school students to hack foreign drones. I kid you not.

The announcement came from FARS, a semi official media outlet that is the voice of the Iranian Republican Guard Corp (IRGC).

General Ali Fazali the acting commander of the Basij militia gave the course a name. He explained that the new study is to be called Defensive Readiness.

A major component of the curriculum already exists. It is called civil defense training and is taught through a manual. The manual will now have to be updated to incorporate the hacking.

"This year," said General Fazali, "we will witness changes in the contents, teachers and teaching hours of the defensive preparedness lesson."

This is a brilliant plan by the Iranians. But it will most certainly backfire.

Once you give students the skills to hack they will not stop at drones - they will attack anything and everything that they dislike. And they probably dislike the government more than they dislike drones.

In the end, only a handful of students will gain the skills.

Hacking cannot be taught. Actually, the opposite. Hacking is about turning everything you were taught upside down. Hacking is about knowing a computer system inside and out and then finding its flaws. Hacking is about finding holes and backdoors that give you access. Hacking is about ingenuity, it is about combining linear and circular reasoning and thought and trial and error. Hacking requires patience, a lot of patience.

Some talented youthful Iranians will be able to hack - but not from a manual and not from a teacher in a class in an Iranian high school.


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What the PLO Says About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday the Executive Committee of The PLO met in Ramallah. The Executive Committee is the most significant and authoritative group of leader in the PLO. They were briefed on the progress of Israel-Palestinian-US talks.

The official responses issued by the Committee after the briefing is shocking. All they could focus on was Israel's decision to build 1200 apartments, mostly in Jerusalem.

Here are several salient comments:
"War crimes, anti-human, racist acts and violations of international laws."

"The PLO Executive Committee considers the unprecedented settler decisions which were announced by the occupation government as conclusive proof that Israel's first and last option remains expansionism, Judaization and theft of Palestinian land, and not ending occupation and implementing the two-state solution on the basis of the 1967 borders."

"We hold the US administration responsible for stopping these Israeli war crimes and attempts to foil the peace process."

"The last settlement steps contradict assurances that the Palestinian Authority received during preparatory talks for launching the negotiations."

"Israel's practices will prompt the Palestinian leadership to demand the intervention of international courts and institutions against these war crimes, racist acts and violations of all international laws and conventions."

The Executive Committee went so far as to call the settlement activity "ethnic cleansing."

Exaggerated use of language is common in the Middle East. But this time exaggerated language is taken to the extreme. These statements by Palestinian leadership are truly extreme. And they are simply not true.

It is hard to imagine how any real resolution can emerge when this kind of vitriol is being spewed by Palestinian leadership in official meetings. The situation is truly out of control.

Who is going to pave the road to coexistence?

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Attacking Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Christians are paying a very heavy price in Egypt. They are suffering the brunt Islamist anger. Morsi supporters have targeted Christians in a way that can only be called bone chilling.

One must ask: Why? How?

Theoretically, the answer lies is the knowledge that in the eyes of Muslim extremists, i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters, Christians are outsiders.

Christians compose 10% of the 90 million people of Egypt, but they are different. History has taught us how powerful difference can be when the objective is to unify the masses. This is happening despite the fact that the Christian community of Egypt is one of the oldest in the world, dating back way before the rise of Islam.

Politically, the answer lies in the perception that the Christians of Egypt played a disproportionate role in the ousting of Morsi.
This might be true and bolstering that theory is the fact that over the past year some important bridges have been built between Christians and mainstream Muslims in Egypt.

The most important reasons is, simply put, logistics. The Christians in Egypt are an easy target. Their churches and schools are immediately identifiable and by blatantly attacking those symbols Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood need not attack the other Muslims of Egypt in order to publicly display their strength.

Targeting Christians is a win-win for the Islamists. They whip up anger at those who threw Morsi out of office and not attack or directly threaten the people who actually ousted him. There is visible, physical, evidence that they acted.

Bottom line is that the churches of Egypt are damaged and ransacked. Over 50 churches have been looted or torched, 23 others were attacked. Looters have come back a second time to steal even more from the churches. Looters loaded trucks with furniture. Nuns have been sexually abused and marched and paraded as criminals.

The West should be shouting at the top of their lungs about the desecration and the violence. I hear nothing.

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Egypt will Get Worse Before Better
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Believe me when I tell you that the situation in Egypt is going to get worse before it gets better.

Morsi supporters and the Muslim Brotherhood have promised that blood will be spilled in the next few days. The statement comes in response to the decision by Egyptian police to clear out two pro-Morsi protest camps in Cairo. In the end over 600 people were killed. Included in that number are about 100 Egyptian police officers.

Morsi supporters also burned down three Cairo churches.

The United States was naive to have assumed that the Muslim Brotherhood would simply sit back quietly as they were removed from power. The Brotherhood waited 80 years before obtaining power and then, poof, on July 3rd it was wrestled from them. They are not going to accept that fate, certainly not without a dirty, violent, fight to the death.

Pro-Morsi protests are not calm and peaceful. Many attendees arrive armed with AK-47's. That is how the police were killed. Morsi devotees have a penchant for violence and are committed to attacking people who are different - especially Christians, and for destroying that which is not part of Islam, like Christian symbols.

This new interim government is not ideal, far from it, it is deeply flawed. But they are making some effort and last week the government passed a law saying that it is no longer illegal to criticize the president.

That should tell you something. In Egypt, that's progress.

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Israel To Transfer Bodies of Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Ynet reported yesterday that not only is Israel releasing prisoners, Israel is also transferring the bodies of terrorists to the Palestinians. It is all part of the series of gestures Israel is making in order to entice the Palestinians to come to the peace negotiation table.

There is no reason to think that this report was not true. The question that needs asking is what benefit will Israel gain from this transfer, especially after already agreeing to release 104 terrorist, all charged with murder or attempted murder, from Israeli prisons.

The only reason the transfer of bodies has not yet taken place is because the Palestinians are confirming the DNA. The precedent has already been set. Last year Israel transferred 91 bodies of terrorists to the Palestinian Authority.

When this transfer does happen it will almost certainly spark another great debate among Israeli.

Is it worth it?

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Abbas Legacy - Prison Release
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, is cementing his legacy.

Most observes would respond by asking how? He has stumbled and failed at every juncture to secure peace or, for that matter, any agreement and has misread Israel's objectives at almost every turn.

That is true. But the Abbas dream is not about peace or coexistence. Mahmoud Abbas wants to be remembered for freeing Palestinian prisoners. Abbas is achieving that which Yasser Arafat could never achieve.

This recent group of 26 prisoners, part of the larger group of 104 prisoners to be released from Israeli prisons, is a small group that numbers well over a thousand Palestinian prisoners who have been freed under Abbas' watch.

Mahmoud Abbas will be remembered in the Palestinian history books as the president who forced Israel to free Palestinians who had been in jail for decades. It is Abbas who gave them their freedom, not Israel.

In the end, for his own legacy, Abbas is not concerned about a Palestinian Israeli peace deal. All he really cares about is the release of prisoners.

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The Prisoners Are Murderers - Look
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Today, the first group of Palestinian prisoners will be released. 26 of 104 prisoners that Israel promised to release in order to entice Mahmoud Abbas to sit down at the table to talk about a peace deal will go free.

26 mass murderers. 14 will return to Gaza. 12 will be released in the West Bank.

Here are some of their names and their crimes:
Abu Moussa Salam Ali Atiya, jailed since 1994, for the murder of Holocaust survivor Isaac Rotenberg

Kor Mattawa Hamad Faiz, jailed since 1985, for the murder of Menahem Dadon and attempted murder of Salomon Abukasis

Salah Ibrahim Ahmad Mughdad, jailed since 1993, for the murder of Israel Tenenbaum.

Many of the victims were older and were Holocaust survivors. 12 of the victims were Arab. All of the prisoners were convicted of murder and attempted murder. Their release flies in the face of the judicial system that convicted them. They are not being released for good behavior nor are they being released on parole.

These convicted criminals are being released as a political gesture which is supra judicial.

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A Little Perspective on Settlements
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There has been much shouting and finger pointing these past few days over the decision by the Israeli government to build 1,200 housing units in the West Bank.

The shouters and finger pointers claim that the decision is at best counterproductive to peace talks. In fact, they have condemned Israel for torpedoing the upcoming second round of talks.

I say that a little perspective is required here. I am neither justifying nor do I need to justify Israel's decision, but that reaction is over the top.

One of the agreements decided upon by the Palestinians and the Israelis was that there no longer needs to be a total cessation of settlement building in order to come back to the negotiating table.

The vast majority of the 1,200 units are actually in Jerusalem, not in far flung settlements. They are in neighborhoods where residents pay taxes and get local bus service and garbage collection from the municipality of Jerusalem. They are over the 1967 lines, but they are part of Jerusalem.

Almost 800 of the 1,200 apartments will be built in Jerusalem: 400 in Gilo; 210 in Homat Shmuel; 183 in Pisgat Zeev. The other communities to receive units are huge city-like suburbs of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The settlement Ariel will get 117 units; Efrat will get 149; Ma'ale Adumim will get 92 units; Beitar Illit will get 36.

Ariel has nearly 20,000 people in it. Beitar Ilit has 50,000 and Maale Adumim has nearly 50,000 people. They are each only a few seconds drive from Jerusalem or Tel Aviv.

Perspective, it's important.

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Threat of Terror From Sinai
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Theories are swirling about the airstrike that destroyed a set of rocket launchers in Egypt and killed several terrorists. The launchers were pointing toward Israel.

The best theory is that the Egyptians used their helicopter gunships to do the job and that the Israelis gave Egypt the intelligence they needed to pinpoint the location.

This has really upset the Jihadists of Egypt.

The Mujahadeen Shura Council of Jerusalem and the Region, issued a statement saying that the real enemy is Israel even if the new government of Egypt was involved. They became even more specific adding that their first target is the Jewish settler community.

The Mujahadeen Council is a terror group that professes, first and foremost, Jihad. They are located in the Sinai and in Gaza.

Here is the statement: "The treacherous strike, which would not have occurred without the coordination of the Egyptian army, is a reminder to Egyptians that their first enemy is the Jews living on occupied Palestinian lands."

These are not idle threats. The Mujahadeen means what it says.

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Saudi Try to Bribe Russia to Drop Assad
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has offered Russia $15 billion to give up on Assad of Syria.

The Saudis are asking Russia to stop pumping money in weapons and knowhow into the Assad forces. Most importantly, they want Russia to stop blocking the UN Security Council.

In return, in addition to the $15 billion, Saudi Arabia has made other promises to Russia. They promise that Damascus will be controlled by Saudi Arabia. That arrangement would be far more pro-Russia than the Islamist regime that would emerge after Assad.
Russia declined.

The Russians said no to the deal for several reasons. One reason is that they probably did not believe that Saudi Arabia could deliver.
More than that, Russia is now at the top of their game in the Middle East. They have created an important nexus bringing Iran and Syria together and, as a byproduct of that arrangement, they are causing great harm to US interests in the region.

Russia now enjoys more influence in the region than it has in decades. There is no way Russia will give that up - not even for $15 billion.


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Take Israel and Italy to Court over Jesus
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Dola Indidis, former spokesman of the Kenyan Ministry of Justice, is taking Israel and Italy to the International Court of Justice. Indidis is asking that Israel and Italy be tried for unjustly convicting Jesus. And then he is asking for the conviction to be overturned.

Indidis is basing his case on the case of Joan of Arc. He maintains that the precedent was set when Joan of Arc's conviction was overturned 25 years after she was executed. Joan was burned at the stake and years later, in 1920, she was canonized. Indidis is convinced that - "This is the same case with Jesus. The judge who sentenced him said that he had no jurisdiction to attend to the matter but he went ahead to convict and pass a capital sentence under duress."

The basis of this argument is that Jesus was brought before Roman Governor Pontius Pilate. Pilate announced that he does not have jurisdiction and sends the case to Herod. Herod, not wanting to touch the issue, sends it back to Pilate who then convicts Jesus and has him crucified.

According to Indidis: "His selective and malicious prosecution violated his human rights through judicial misconduct, abuse of office, bias and prejudice."

"The proceedings before the Roman courts were a nullity in law for they did not conform to the rule of law at the material time and any time thereafter."

"Some of those present spat in his face, struck him with their fists, slapped him, taunted him, and pronounced him worthy of death."

There is no parallel between Jesus and Joan of Arc. And there is no way the International Court of Justice will hear this case.

The case of Jesus is full of historical and legal questions and asking those questions makes for interesting academic debates and great dinner party conversations and has even been the foundation for tenure at some very august universities. But they do not belong in court.

Then again, you never know. The International Court has a rabidly anti-Israel and anti-Semitic tone. But still, I do not believe that they will take on this case.

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Egypt Blows Up Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past month Egypt has begun to crackdown on the terror and anarchy that has been engulfing Sinai.

The new government in Egypt has begun to blow up tunnels and to arrest terrorists.

This crackdown in Sinai means that Egypt is separating the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt from Hamas in Gaza. Do not mistake this for a pro-Israel or a pro-Western move. The crackdown against the terrorists is absolutely and exclusively in the best interest of Egypt - otherwise anarchy would continue to prevail.

Egypt blew up 102 smuggling tunnels. They arrested 103 terrorist and they killed 60. They confiscated the 40 fuel depots with 2.7 million liters of diesel and gasoline. During the conflict with the terrorists 20 police officers and soldiers were killed.

These numbers are very telling.

This is proof that the new interim government in Egypt has begun to take charge. The new government sees the danger in anarchy and terror. They do not want the Muslim Brotherhood stimulating terror.

This is a very important and encouraging sign. It portends well for the new, new Egypt.

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Terror Alert - The Downside
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The terror threat level is still high and it will remain high until August 10 when the Muslim holiday Eid al Fitr ends.

Closing US diplomatic posts in order to keep them safe is the best way to prevent another Benghazi from happening. Once you close the facility the chances of a massive attack that claims US lives is virtually eliminated.

But...

There is an intrinsic problem with going on alert and closing embassies. In fact, in Yemen the facility was not only closed, all personnel was shipped out and away.

The biggest drawback to responding to terror threats by creating a policy which includes the closing of embassies and an international media campaign explaining the closings is the message that is sent to al Qaeda. The message is clear. They have won this round.

Right now the terrorists are celebrating their success. On their websites terrorists are describing how they have brought the mighty United States to its knees without even embarking on an attack. They are gloating and they are certainly enjoying the coverage and notoriety.

The United States must find a happy medium between what was done and doing nothing.

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Terror Alert
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Since the weekend, press coverage of the US embassy closures has been on front pages across America.

Most of the embassies will remain closed until August 10 which is the last day of Eid el Fitr. The Eid is a three day holiday that follows the Muslim month of Ramadan which is a month of fasting.

What is most interesting is that the embassies in Kabul and Baghdad opened on Sunday. And all US diplomatic facilities in Israel - Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, opened on Monday. That is because in all those places the US presence is secure and properly defended.

Vis a vis Israel, there is no al Qaeda threat at all in Israel. Closing US diplomatic representation there would be silly. The other closures are, however, all based on the same al Qaeda threat, a threat that clearly contained a time table and a set of dates.

Defensive thinkers usually have the "where" and the "how" but never the "when". They usually know what targets are sensitive and high profile and they know the methods used by terrorists.

This time all the pieces have been brought together and the State Department took great caution and acted to protect people and facilities. Nobody wants a repeat of Benghazi.

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Saudi Insult Al Bashir Big Time
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Almost everyone knows that Hassan Rouhani, the new Iranian president, assumed his post yesterday.

But hardly anyone knows that Sudan's President Omar al Bashir was on his way to the inauguration and was forced to return to Khartum.
Saudi Arabia would not permit al Bashir to cross their air space.

That happened despite his having a prior agreement and his using a Saudi charter and non-Sudanese pilots.

The plane took off and entered Saudi airspace and was told it may not proceed. So the pilots circled in Saudi airspace for about an hour as the diplomats tried to resolve the issue. In the end, al Bashir's plane was turned back.

In the Western world al Bashir is a pariah. An arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court (The ICC). But this is the Middle East and over the last few years he has been a regular and welcome guest in Saudi Arabia. The African Union officially rejected the warrant and it members disregard to ICC decree.

Here's the problem: Sudan has begun to permit Iran the use of their ports. Several times in the recent past Iran has docked its warships in the port of Sudan. This act has become a real public affront to Saudi Arabia.

And so, al Bashir and Sudan are being publicly humiliated for becoming too cozy with Iran.

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Al Qaeda Prison Break -- Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Interpol is concerned. The US intelligence and security establishment should be concerned, as well. This is an issue in which time is of the essence.

As I recently wrote there were simultaneous prison breaks in Iraq during which 500 al Qaeda leaders escaped.

In addition to the Iraqi prison breaks, 1190 prisoners escaped from a prison in Benghazi last week. Similar to Iraq, many were terrorists and al Qaeda members. And in Pakistan there was also a prison break in which untold numbers al Qaeda prisoners escaped.

Interpol is asking if all the prison breaks are coordinated or linked or in any way related. They need to know whether there is a concerted effort to get al Qaeda prisoners out to support a larger mission or even a series of missions.

And if so --- what is that mission?

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Nasrallah Left His Bunker
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, gave a speech yesterday. In the speech he repeated many standard cliches and themes.

What makes this speech worth mentioning is that it was delivered in honor of Al Quds, or Jerusalem, Day. Al Quds Day is a holiday that Iran instituted as a move to show solidarity with the Palestinians.
It is a holiday also celebrated by Hezbollah.

These are some of the statements made by Nasrallah as he delivered his speech: "Palestine must return to its rightful owners."

"The Palestine which we mean is a Palestine which stretches from the sea to the river."

"Israel poses a critical threat not only to Palestine, but to all the world."

We know very well where Nasrallah and Hezbollah stand on these issues.

What makes this speech unique is that Nasrallah delivered it live, in front of a live audience, away from his home turf. The head of Hezbollah left his secure bunker and went to id-a-Shuhada, a complex in the Hezbollah-controlled Dahieh quarter of Lebanon's capital Beirut, in order to deliver this speech.

That's what makes this speech special.

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Israeli Spying for Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has charged and will try a 46 year old Jerusalemite for treason. The man - whose name has not been released, went to Germany and initiated contact with the Iranians.

The unnamed man strolled in to the Iranian embassy and announced that he lived in Jerusalem and wanted to spy against Israel. Three men sat him down. At the end of the meeting he was told that more senior people had to evaluate the situation. He was given an email account and a telephone number at the embassy in Berlin in order to contact his handler.

This unnamed man is a member of Neturei Karta, a sect which vehemently objects to the modern political State of Israel and will go - as we can see - to great lengths to popularize their anti-Zionist message. But he also seems to be part of the sub groups called Torah Vayera. This smaller group flatly rejects all interaction with Muslims as a means to bring down Israel.

When he returned to Israel four days after his meeting the man checked his email account at an internet cafe and started calling the Iranian embassy in Berlin.

It is hard to imagine that this man had any real secrets to sell. But it is still comforting that he was discovered so easily.

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Ramadan Is For Fasting & Forgiveness
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

This is the Islamic month of Ramadan. Muslims around the world fast during the day and celebrate at night. It is a month of introspection and a month of forgiveness.

The Emir of Kuwait has taken the idea of forgiveness to a very practical new high

"On the occasion of the last 10 days of Ramadan, I am pleased to issue an emiri pardon for those who have been handed jail terms on charges of insulting the emir," Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah said in a televised speech.

The Emir of Kuwait has now pardoned a good number of prisoners who have already been found guilty and are serving their sentences and even some who are still only charged with insulting the Emir.

Insulting the Emir of Kuwait carries a five years prison sentence.

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1st Round of Talks Is Over
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The first round of peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is over and now. The talks were short and painless.

There are very low expectations for these negotiations towards peace. Ironically, low expectations work to the benefit of the talks. When people think nothing will result, then something actually can emerge from the negotiations.

The most important decision to emerge from the two meetings is the decision to meet again. That meeting will, most probably, take place in two weeks. It was also agreed that, at a minimum, the talks will last nine months. And the talks will deal with all the substantive issues including borders, refugees, Jerusalem and security.

Both the Israeli and the Palestinian street is conflicted about the meetings.

Some say: what is there to lose. Others say: what a waste of time. So far, the optimists have defeated the pessimists.

The first of the two meetings included a Ramamdan Iftar (break fast) eaten after sunset. The second meeting the next day was a working meeting at the State Department.

This formula did not guarantee success - but having only two meetings protected against the potential for certain and immediate failure.

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Abbas in Egypt - Supports New Gov
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As Israeli and Palestinian negotiation teams meet and dine in Washington DC, another Palestinian guest is visiting and cementing relations elsewhere in the world.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is visiting Cairo. Abbas is giving his blessing to the interim government and to the removal of Mohammed Morsi.

It is pretty simple. Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood party were very close supporters of Hamas. Hamas is actually an intellectual outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood. And Hamas is the political nemesis of Abbas and the PLO.

Going to Egypt and embracing the new interim government was a slap in the face to Morsi, to the Brotherhood and to Hamas.

This visit to Egypt is intertwined with the current charges against Morsi. One of the charges against him is escaping from prison during the uprising against Mubarak. And the prison break that freed Morsi was organized and perpetrated by Hamas.

Abbas is publicly taking sides. But it is no secret that he never trusted either Morsi or the Brotherhood because of their close ties to Hamas.

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What The Muslim Brotherhood Really Thinks
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The West needs to understand exactly what the point of view of the Muslim Brotherhood is. Their rhetoric is extremely hateful and very dangerous.

Mohammed Badie is the supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, he is known as the Supreme Guide. Badie is the 8th person to hold that position and has been the Supreme Guide since 2010.

And I quote: "I swear by God that what al Sisi (the head of the Egyptian army who led the campaign to oust Morsi) did in Egypt is more criminal than if he had carried an ax and demolished the holy Kaaba, stone by stone."

Badie also said: the "Zionist fingers are at play in countries of the Arab Spring, so as to fulfill the vision of the Great Israel."

He said that Sisi and the Egyptian army are: "committing massacres the likes of which we have only seen committed by the bitter Zionist enemies and their treacherous agents."

Badie called Sisi worse than Pharoah, who killed children. He said: Sisi and the army "are worse -- you kill everybody."

Badie has said that the values of the current interim government and of Sisi are inverted. In the world according to Badie the current regime in Egypt twisted the truth in such a manner that communication with Gaza is considered a crime while communication with the "Zionist enemy" is considered an honor.

It is hard to misunderstand the way in which Badie views the world.
The worst crime anyone can commit, according to Badie, is to be allied with Israel and the West.

That is the face of the Muslim Brotherhood. That is the voice of the Muslim Brotherhood. That is the mindset of the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Israel Agrees To Prisoner Release
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli cabinet approved the decision to release 104 prisoners, all of whom were convicted of acts of terrorism against Israelis.

The prisoner release is a stimulus to entice the Palestinians to come back to the table and resume peace negotiations. Of course, acts such as this one are never officially called "preconditions" because for years we have been told that there are no "preconditions" for talks.

Israel is wrenched by the decision. The families of the soon-to-be victims are divided. There is much pain in making a decision, a political decision, to release prisoners convicted of such heinous crimes as terror.

Naphtali Bennett the head of The Jewish Home Party said this about the cabinet decision:

"We once released a terrorist in exchange for a live soldier, then we released hundreds of terrorists for a live soldier, then terrorists for a dead soldiers and now 100 terrorists for a
'process'. We teach the world that everything is negotiable with us."

His comments strike a very powerful cord.

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Birds Are Spying for Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I have written about this before.

It happened in Iran and it happened in several of the Gulf states. And now it happened in Turkey.

A bird with an Israeli tag was arrested for espionage.

The bird was thought to be a spy with cameras and microchips or even -explosives. After an investigation which included an x-ray this bird, like others, was set free to fly away.

The bird that was just arrested in Turkey had a metal ring tag on its leg which read 24311 Tel Avivunia Israel. Of course, that would frighten any reasonable person who would then frantically call the police and the secret security service. This particular bird was found and captured in the Agin district of the eastern province of Elazig.

The incident was reported in the national Turkish newspaper Hurriyet - usually a reliable source. In this case at, least, Hurriyet maintained a sense of humor and concluded their piece with the sentence:

"Following the tests, the authorities decided not to press official charges and the falsely accused bird was free to fly away."

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PA Salutes Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I am in favor of the renewal of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. I think that peace is preferable to war. But I am not hopeful about these talks.

The word is that the talks will begin in Washington, DC on this coming Tuesday.

Here is one of the reasons why I am not hopeful:
Palestine Media Watch has made us aware that on their official Fatah Facebook page Palestinian leadership is teaching the masses about, and celebrating the murders of, sixty seven Israelis and they are honoring the murderer.

The Palestinian Authority is honoring Abdallah Barghoutti, a master bomb maker, who successfully created the bombs that ripped through the Sbarro restaurant in Jerusalem, the Ben Yehudah pedestrian mall in Jerusalem, the Hebrew University cafeteria and his list goes on. Look at the list below, it comes straight from the PA Facebook page.

How on earth do Israel and the United States expect to make progress towards peace when the authorized websites of the PA broadcast this and other, similar messages? How?

The following is the full text of the official Fatah Facebook page:

"The brave prisoner, Abdallah Barghouti, who has the longest [prison] sentence in the history of the Palestinian cause"
Text on photo:
"The free prisoner Abdallah Barghouti
Personal information:
Born in Kuwait in 1972.
Married and father of one son and two daughters: Osama, Tala and Safa.
Studied electrical engineering in South Korea.
Date of arrest: March 5, 2003.
His self-sacrificing activity: Planning a series of Martyrdom-seeking operations (i.e., suicide terror attacks) during 2000-2003:
- The Sbarro restaurant operation in Jerusalem which killed 15 Zionists
- The Moment Cafe operation which killed 11 Zionists
- The Sheffield Night Club operation which killed 15 Zionists
- The Hebrew University operation which killed 9 Zionists
- The Ben Yehuda pedestrian mall operation which killed 11 Zionists
Prison sentence: 67 life sentences.
Recipient of the longest [prison] sentence in the history of the Palestinian issue."
[Official Facebook page of the Enlistment and Organization
Commission of Fatah, July 22, 2013]


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US Stops F-16's to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I did not think that it would happen - but it did.

The US suspended the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. The jets were supposed to be delivered in the coming weeks. It was all part of a deal signed in 2010.

In 2012 The United States and Egypt agreed on a $2.5 billion military contract in which the US would deliver twenty F-16's. Four were delivered earlier this year and four more are scheduled for delivery.

Now the delivery of the fighter jets has been temporarily suspended. The Department of Defense says that given the current situation in Egypt it is best to watch and wait and see how things turn out before delivering the military equipment.

US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called his Egyptian counterpart, General Sisi, to give him the news.

At this point it would be unwise for the United States to transfer sophisticated weaponry that could potentially fall into the hands of enemies. And that is what George Little, spokesman for the Pentagon, meant when he said. "Just given the overall situation in Egypt right now we thought it prudent to make this decision."

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Al Qaeda Prison Break
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Abu Ghraib, that notorious Iraqi prison where US guards took pictures of Iraqi prisoners. Well, the prison is in the news again.

On Sunday and on into Monday a full scale prison break - actually, a full scale military assault on a relatively secure facility - led to the escape of 500 highly dangerous prisoners, all from al Qaeda and almost all convicted and sentenced to death. All of the prisoners were al Qaeda leaders.

The Abu Ghraib prison break took place simultaneously with another
prison break, in Taji, 20 miles north of Baghdad.

The Abu Ghraib operation was very well planned and executed.

Two suicide bombers drove cars packed with explosives into the gates of the prison blowing them open. Another two suicide bombers, on foot, detonated their explosives killing themselves thereby allowing the prisoners to escape. Mortars and RPGs were used to destroy the towers and attack the guards.

Other al Qaeda forces were positioned to prevent US reinforcements from entering the prison. As the battle ensured 500 Al Qaeda prisoners escaped. Control was not restored until Monday. A handful of escapees were recaptured, the rest are long gone.

There are two immediate ramifications from the prison breaks.
Number one, these people will be used to alter the momentum in the now Shiite-led Iraq. Number two, these daring escapes will motivate more al Qaeda forces to enter Syria in order to try and defeat Assad.

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Iran Rejects Israel-PA Dialogue
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has rejected the idea of Israel and the Palestinians re-embarking on peace talks.

Iranian media has been filled with comments by the foreign ministry denouncing the talks. Abbas Araqchi, spokesman for the foreign ministry, has been especially vocal on the subject.

He said: "Past experience shows that the occupying Zionist regime is basically not ready to pay the price for peace since war mongering and occupation lie at its very core."

He called for: "self-determination for the Palestinians, the return of all refugees to their ancestral land, and the creation of an integrated Palestine with al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital."

In our world, who is against talks? How bad can talks be? Peace can only help both sides. At least, that is the conventional wisdom.

But what if accepting Israel and signing a peace deal is anathema to a tradition and a story line and thesis? What happens when the new narrative that is played out, one in which Palestinians and Israelis agree and there is progress towards peace, would be destructive to the old guard?

That would be dangerous. And that frightens Iran.

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UN Defends Morsi
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The UN pressed the interim leadership of Egypt on the issue of Human Rights.

They wanted to know why Morsi, his colleagues and his allies are being held prisoner and asked if the current interim regime has plans to bring them to trial.

It is a valid question - but totally misplaced. Egypt cannot try Morsi for making colossal decisions. Bad decisions are not illegal. Getting bad advice is not a crime.

But it was cause to oust him.
Once ousted, Morsi must be held along with his cohorts so they do not incite riots or violence that could cause massive numbers of injuries or loss of lives. In addition, his own life is in danger because of the political crisis he precipitated. For the time being Mohammed Morsi is actually safer in protective custody than he would be anywhere else.

There are rumors that Morsi could be tried for escaping from jail during the Mubarak regime. But that, too, is unlikely. It is also unlikely that, at that time, he was arrested and convicted in a manner which would be considered due process today. So trying Morsi for escaping from a jail during the totalitarian regime of Mubarak is hardly a popular cause.

The UN should just watch Morsi, make certain that his accommodations are comfortable. I am told they are - actually much more comfortable than the jail cell Hosni Mubarak now calls home.


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Chemical Weapons in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There have been several recent and important reports of chemical weapon stores in Syria.

The reports relate to weapon transfers and to stores that have been discovered.

The first report came by way of a spokesman from the Free Syrian Army, a group that is recognized by the United States and the West as a legitimate rebel force fighting the Assad regime.

The spokesperson said that at a location near Damascus chemical weapons were transferred to Hezbollah by the Assad regime. This transaction was also reported in the Lebanese news.

In another report the Assad regime claimed that they had discovered a large cache of chemical weapons that were being stored by the rebels. That stockpile was found in a neighborhood in Damascus.

For a year already there have been credible intelligence reports regarding Syria and chemical weapons. Agencies have been maintaining that both sides in the Syrian conflict have chemical weapons. And then just recently, the United States confirmed that Assad has used limited chemicals.

None of this is good news. Not for Syrians, not for the region.

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Palestinians Want an Airport
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

News has leaked about what really transpired in the five hour dinner meeting held on Tuesday in Amman, Jordan between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Five hours is a very long meeting even by Middle Eastern standards - and there is only so much one can eat. So what really happened?

The Palestinians want an airport. They want an airport in Ramallah.

The United States will propose to the Israelis that the airport be for small aircraft and helicopters. The Palestinians want the airport, in Area A, to be totally controlled by them.

Gaza, by the way, had an airport. It was targeted by Israel during Operation Cast Lead and has never been rebuilt.

This is a classic precondition- but honestly, it is easily doable.
But the Palestinians also want something else.

The Palestinians want a map change. They want access to the Dead Sea.

They say they want the map change for tourism and to build hotels. That would mean changing certain parts of Area C and making them Area B.

That request is not so easily doable.

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Kerry in Jordan Talking w Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Guess what?

US Secretary of State John Kerry is back in the Middle East. On Tuesday night he wrapped up a meeting with Palestinian President in Amman, Jordan.

The United States, using Kerry as the vehicle, is pushing both Israel and the Palestinians to the negotiations table. Truth be told, the US is pressuring the Palestinians in ways that we had not yet seen coming out of Washington during the Obama administration.

The US is, of course, pressuring Israel, too - but that is commonplace. And Israel actually understands the gestures the United States must make to entice the Palestinians to come to the table and resume talks.

The Palestinians have been very reluctant to move without real assurances of real concessions by Israel. But the United States cannot give them those assurances. That is the purpose of the DIRECT talks. If the US could give assurances as to what will result from the talks and give advance notice of just how much Israel was willing to give they would be the intermediary and the talks would be called INDIRECT.

Israel wants direct talks with the Palestinians - as does the United States. The Palestinians want to know what the results will be before they begin. That just cannot happen.

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Iranian Film Director in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

World famous Iranian film director Mohsen Makhmalbaf is in Jerusalem. He is promoting his newest film "The Gardener" at the Jerusalem Film Festival.

Makhmalbaf has been exiled from Iran. For years he was on the run. Assassins pursued him, but now he lives relatively safely in London.

The movie takes place in the Bahai gardens. It is a docu-drama. The focus if the movie is the dialogue between the gardener and his son.

Makhmalbaf said that when he leaves Israel there will be more threats against him. He will surely be called either a Mossad or a CIA agent. And making a movie in Israel about the Bahai is a slap against the Iranian establishment.

The Iranian director-in-exile offered some words of advice to Israel and its political leadership. He said: "I love you, but please do not attack Iran. It is not the solution. It would only aggravate the situation."

He urged a resolution -- but not a resolution by way of attacks.

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Poland Outlaws Kosher Meat Production
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was a sad day for Polish Jews and, for that matter, for Polish history.

Yesterday a bill was defeated in the Polish parliament that would have allowed for Kosher slaughter and Hallal slaughter.

Earlier, a very clear bill protecting animal rights had passed through the Polish parliament. That bill demanded that all animals be stunned before slaughter - but both Jewish and Muslim law absolutely do not permit stunning prior to slaughter.

The proposed new, failed, bill attempted to make the religious slaughter an exception.

Comments made to the press after the vote smacked of anti-Semitism and hatred. Those who defeated the bill spoke about the precious feelings of animals, and how important it is to defend the animals, even if it causes economic loss. In the end, the needless sufferings of Polish animals was proven to be more important the a few dollars.

The Polish Parliament cared more about the sensitivities of dead and dying animals than about the quality of life of Polish Jews.

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Army Further Weakened in Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday Turkey changed the definition of their army. That decision will have a huge impact on the future of Turkey.

The army in Turkey was always used as an essential vehicle safeguarding the democracy. Four times in the past hundred years the military has been called to step in to take over and then hand the country back to the people. The Turkish army was a safety valve against anti-democratic movements and leaders.

On Friday Turkish Parliament officially changed the definition of the Turkish armed forces to that of "watching over and protecting the Turkish republic."
According to the new definition the Turkish army is "defending the Turkish nation against external threats and dangers, and maintaining and strengthening military powers to ensure deterrence."

As of now the Turkish army has no role in the preservation of the republic from internal threats. The army now functions solely as a defense against outside forces.

This is the last blow in a series of attacks against the army orchestrated by Erdogan. His objective is to neuter the army which was too powerful and too independent for him.

Erdogan is succeeding in changing the country - but at what cost for Turkey?

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Rebels Fighting Rebels in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syria may have been moved to the back burner since the situation in Egypt began heating up. But it doesn't mean that the situation in Syria is not simmering.

But things are still happening in Syria. Most crucial is that the rebels appear to be imploding.

Yesterday Kamal Hamami, one of the 30 leaders of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Supreme Military Command, was killed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, also known as al Qaeda of Iraq and Syria.

The FSA announced that they are now engaged in all out war.

This came on the heels of last week's filmed and public beheading of an FSA rebel in the city of Idlib.

It's classic. For two years I have been saying that there is no united rebel force in Syria. I've been saying that it is just a matter of time before one group of rebels kills another. Now that prediction is a full blown reality.

This rage, this warring, will be the end of the rebels. The rebels are unwittingly and unintentionally catapulting Bashar Assad back into power. And they just can't stop themselves.

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Israel: Secret Unit Gets Award
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli Army presented a merit award to Unit 8200 yesterday.

At first glance it is not such a big deal - until you realize that Unit 8200 is an intelligence unit.

This not just any unit. 8200 is the largest single unit in the Israel army. It is composed of thousands of soldiers. Its main base is called Urim and is located somewhere in the Negev desert, about 20 minutes from the city of Beersheba.

Unit 8200 was created in 1952. It is actually called "Shmoneh Mataayim" which in English translates to "Eight Two Hundred." There are many sub units within 8200. No one in one unit knows what others are doing in another unit - or even in their own unit. Part of 8200 collects intelligence and monitors the news, that section is called "Chatzav."

You would think it almost impossible to keep a secret when so many thousands of people are affiliated - but everything is compartmentalized and everyone is extremely secretive.

Across the world IDF Unit 8200 is officially referred to as the Central Collection Unit of the Israeli Army's Intelligence Corps.
Sometimes it is just called "The Israelis." 8200 has become a cabal, a mythical power with supernatural powers.

But 8200 also creates and attacks. Members of the Unit work closely with the Americans and it was probably 8200 which created Stuxnet, the virus that attacked Iran's nuclear enrichment program. 8200 is probably also responsible for W32.Flame which attacked Iran's oil pumping system and closed it down.

Above all else, Unit 8200 is a group of hackers, thousands of hackers. And they are competing with the Chinese and the Russians.

They are probably the largest, or at least, one of the largest listening bases in the world. Being in the desert helps - the skies are clearer with less interruption and they can listen to almost everyone everywhere. Unit 8200 tracks people, cars, ships, almost anything that moves. They are connected via satellite and have covert listening stations across the world.

In this era of budget cuts which means fewer planes and fewer tanks, money is being spent on high tech weaponry. Computers are cheaper than tanks and F-16s. And they have done some remarkable work.

We will never know all that Unit 8200 and other similar units around the world have done. But we do know that we live in a world of intelligence gathering and games of war. And in Israel, computer geeks have become military heroes.

Israel is saying "todah" or "thank you" to Unit 8200 by giving them this award.

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Who is Supporting Egypt?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Let's look at who is supporting Egypt since the ousting of Morsi and the Muslim Brother. It is very telling to know who is who - who is giving support and who is withdrawing support.

Saudi Arabia has come forward, they supported the ouster and are giving $8 billion.
The United Arab Emirates is giving $3 billion.
Kuwait is giving $4 billion.
Qatar is in for $5 billion.

Qatar was very involved in supporting Morsi in the first months of his reign. They gave billions to the Morsi government. But two months before the ousting of the Brotherhood they had switched allegiance and were sponsoring and helping the students.

It was probably the Qatari foreign minister who called Morsi and asked him to resign. And that was probably at the request of the White House. Everything is couched in terms of "probably" because it is all being kept confidential and hush-hush.

The US will go through with the promise to deliver four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. The jets were scheduled to be delivered in the first week of August and there is no reason to expect that it will not happen.

Thus far this year the United States has given Egypt $650 million in military aid. $585 million is still pending and will be delivered between now and September when the fiscal year ends.

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has also come out in support of the students. He called the showdown in Egypt "a blow to Jihadists."

Turkey, however, is vehemently opposed to the uprising. Erdogan is calling it an affront to democracy and says that anyone who supports the Egyptian uprising is a hypocrite.

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Syria Spills into Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier today a massive car explosion ripped though a southern Beirut neighborhood. The neighborhood is known to be Hezbollah territory and the explosion detonated near a Hezbollah military compound.

Beirut is no stranger to car bombs.

Fully understanding this particular explosion is essential in understanding the present state of the Arab Middle East. This is clearly a Sunni attack against Shiite Hezbollah. It is an obvious and tangible sign that the conflict in Syria between Shiites and Sunnis is spilling over into Lebanon.

Reports suggested that the attack was directed against a Hezbollah leader. I doubt it.

Car bombs like this one are massive. Very seldom do they successfully hit specific targets. Their purpose is widespread damage. They damage buildings, streets, institutions. They wreak fear. They are the opposite of a planned assassination.

A planned assassination would partially destroy the car and kill or maim only the people targeted in that car. It would use a few kilos of explosives. This car bomb used over 40 kilos, which is nearly 90lbs, of explosives.

This type of attack is similar to al Qaeda attacks in Syria and in Iraq.

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Why It is Not A Coup
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The White House is walking a tight rope. They still do not want to call the crisis in Egypt a coup. They are in a bind because Congressional law prevents the United States from giving aid to any regime that came into existence through a coup.

This is what happened: In 2012 Congress passed a law called the Consolidated Appropriations Act which prohibits spending money for any "assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree, or a coup d'etat or decree that is supported by the military."

So the White House is not saying it was a coup. If they do not call is a coup that means that it was not a coup.

Jay Carney, the White House press secretary put it this way: "I'm being very clear with you ... this is a complex and difficult issue with significant consequences."

The White House and DC have been portrayed as evil by both sides in Egypt. There is very little the United States can do to redeem their reputation.

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Stop The Non Democratic Parties in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood has taken their anger to the streets.

Everyday there are large Muslim Brotherhood organized rallies in support of ousted president Morsi. At the same time, tens of thousands gather at counter demonstrations rallied in support of the ousting. The protestors sometimes meet and the result is violence and even death.

The plan is to hold an election in 18 months. The temporary government wants to set the stage for a real secure transition back to democracy. They want to put the economy back on track. To do that they first have to strip the constitution of the anti-democratic changes made under Morsi and the Muslim
Brotherhood. They need to, and intend to, make significant changes -- especially regarding the role of the president and the primacy of Sharia, Islamic law.

The temporary government must add on provisions that prohibit non-democratic parties from standing for election. They must see to it that parties prove their democratic character - which will be an impossibility for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri parties.

Non-democratic parties should be disqualified until they prove their democratic nature. All their literature, presentations, speeches, leadership media interviews must be subject to inspection. Unless they pass the democracy test, a party should not be permitted to run.

A democracy must protect itself from anti-democratic forces. That is where Egypt failed in the last election. The Egyptians elected a "non" or better an "anti" democratic party and the leader of that party, Mohammed Morsi, proceeded to dismantle democracy and use his power to abuse the people and destroy the opposition.

Along the way Morsi and the Mulsim Brotherhood destroyed the economy, too.

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Brotherhood Trying to Take Back Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood is setting the stage to retake Egypt. To that end, at least seventeen Egyptians were killed yesterday. The Brotherhood has called on their people to take to the streets.

The rhetoric is getting ugly and it is dangerous. The Muslim Brotherhood website calls Adli Mansour, the new president of Egypt, a Jew. First it calls him a 7th Day Adventist. Then it says that Mansour wanted to get closer to Christianity but the Coptic Pope refused to baptize him. Then it calls him a Jew.

The Brotherhood is also trying to skewer Mohammed el Baradei, one of the leaders of the opposition. They claim that he refused to join the Sharia Council unless they recognized that there was a Holocaust.

On the website a famous TV personality named Ahmed Mansour (no relation) said this about the Holocaust and el Baradei: "This is a token gesture offered to the Jews by el Baradei so that he can become President of the Republic in the fake elections that the military will guard and whose results they will falsify in their interests ... All with the approval of America, Israel and the Arabs, of course.

"This is the glorious scene of the future of Egypt and the Arabs, who competed to recognize the coup, the coup whose drum the secularists are dancing to ... even to the extent that one of them, who hates religion, Islam and the nation announced that he has been reborn ... and that his date of birth is 30/6, that is, the day the army of defeats staged a coup against ballot box legitimacy."

Conspiracy theories abound.

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What's Next in Egypt?
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

What happens next in Egypt?

A technocratic government has been put in place in Egypt and Morsi has been deposed.

Now there are some very important steps to be taken and other, just as important, steps to be avoided.

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri party cannot be allowed to assume that they can beat back their way into power through violence.

There must not be a civil war. The army will play an essential role in this as will Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia must continue to give money to the new regime. Qatar came out already and welcomed the change. Saudi Arabia will be next.

The United States must not send out a message that the Muslim Brotherhood was injured by the change in leadership. That would be seen as a blessing that the Brotherhood could take to the streets.

The constitution in Egypt must be changed and stripped of its Morsi additions that place Islamic law above all else.

Infrastructure and bureaucratic institutions must begin to work. Safety and security and justice must become common place. Martial law existed in Egypt from 1981 until 2011. Now there must be a sense of safety and freedom.

The United States must understand that the Army did not take over but rather stepped in to safeguard the institutions of freedom and protect the masses. If things get violent and if there is no immediate control, Egypt will fall into chaos.

Democratic parties must work towards a speedy election and not split the vote.

Non-democratic forces must not be permitted to stand for election. If the vote is split among all the progressive parties then once again the Muslim Brotherhood will win in the next election.

This is just the beginning. This new, new Egypt has a long, long way to go.

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Ousting Morsi- Where Was the US?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The first elected president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, has been deposed. After four days of massive demonstrations the Egyptian army has unseated him.

This is all the result of the Arab Spring. The spring ousted
Mubarak and replaced him with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. The people reacted in an extreme political way by voting the extreme. It is what I call the rubber band effect.

Now the rubber band has stretched back to its normal size. That meant ousting Morsi and the Brotherhood which was the exaggerated response.

Now one has to ask: Where was the United States in this entire episode?

The answer is: Almost absent.

This was a real democratic uprising. We heard that the US Army Chief of Staff called his Egyptian counterpart. And we heard that the White House asked for responsible behavior. But that is hardly a show of leadership in a crisis. This was a world crisis and a democratic crisis.

Yes, Morsi was democratically elected. But democracy was kicked to the side and he turned into a tyrant. There was no constitutional way of removing him short of suspending the constitution.

This is a statement of empowerment by and for the people of Egypt.
This is a damning critique of American foreign policy.

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It's the Economy in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Make no mistake - the unrest in Egypt is about a failed leader and his failed economy. Calling it a religious conflict is easy - but wrong.

The rhetoric sometimes relates to religious issues, but the truth is clear and every Egyptian knows it. If there were tourism in Egypt and if natural gas and oil were being exported, there would be some discontent but nothing like this. There would be stragglers protesting in the street, not millions massed in Tahrir Square.

In Egypt right now, it is all about the economy.

We are talking about a country with almost no economy to speak of and a growing debt. Aid can no longer save the Egyptians. They need to produce, they need to export.

Some would argue that the problems in Egypt exist because Morsi is an Islamic leader. I would say that the crisis in Egypt is due to the fact that Mohammed Morsi is a bad and inexperienced leader.

There were high hopes at first. Morsi could have been forward thinking and more inclusive. He could have been a president that embraced public safety. Instead he became a president who polarized.

Polarization was probably the greatest error Morsi made. There is no doubt that in the eyes of the world polarization in Egypt was interpreted as danger and danger means no tourism.

In what we can now called "the good old days," the days before Morsi came to power, Egypt thrived on tourism.

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The US Just Does Not Get the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Washington does not understand the Middle East.

Here are four blatant examples illustrating how the administration is naive and overly optimistic about everything relating to the region. How they are not grounded in the realities of the Middle East.

# 1: In Egypt the United States jumped at the opportunity to oust Mubarak which turned into a big mistake. Now DC is overly cautious and as a result Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are getting the soft shoe.

# 2: In Syria it appears as if the United States has decided to side with the rebels. That is despite knowing that the best organized and best trained and most powerful rebels are confirmed al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliates.

# 3: In Turkey the United States has been relatively quiet about the brutal crackdown Erdogan has perpetrated against protesters. They have silently stood by as the Turkish leader's language slips into anti-democratic and extremely problematic imagery.

# 4: Just last week the United States opened official channels of communication with the Taliban. They met in Qatar.

The only way to explain these actions and inactions by the United States is to say that the present administration is naive, very, very naive.

Naivete and diplomacy are not a good mix.

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Kerry See Progress in MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry has wrapped up nearly four days of shuttling back and forth between Bibi Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Kerry met with leader three times.

As he was departing Ben Gurion airport outside of Tel Aviv Kerry said: "I'm pleased to tell you that we have made real progress on this trip. And I believe that with a little more work, the start of final status negotiations could be within reach. We started out with very wide gaps, and we have narrowed those considerably."

He punctuated his remarks by saying: "I know progress when I see it."

Kerry is confident that progress has been made, but that does not mean that the parties are ready to sit down and talk about final status accords.

What Kerry was saying is that the huge disagreements between the Israelis and the Palestinians have become less pronounced. And yes, there is no doubt that we can call that progress.

Now I await the next stage ... actually sitting down to talk. I wait, but I am not holding my breath.

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Egypt Heats Up
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As I write this I am watching a real time, live, feed from Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt where protestors have massed in the hope of ousting new president Morsi on the first anniversary of his inauguration.

The press reports that thousands of people are gathered around the square.

In the time I have been watching, the numbers have expanded. If there were 200,000 in the square a few hours ago there are three times that now - and it is still growing.

They are shouting "Erhal" which translates to mean "leave" and "step down."

All kinds of people are there. Even women. Women have, until now, been absent from events of this type because of the great dangers, the attacks and the rapes that have occurred during protests.

As the heat breaks and the approaching evening brings cooler weather
I anticipate that even more Egyptians will emerge. I am convinced that this anti-Morsi protest will top one million chanting attendees.

There has been only minimal violence so far. Unfortunately, yesterday, a young man from the United States in Egypt to teach English to locals was stabbed in the chest in Alexandria and died from his wound. The fact that he was actively Jewish had no bearing on the attack.

The crowd in Tahrir Square is serious. They want Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood out. Now.


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Erdogan to Visit Gaza on July 5
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

First came the murmurs. Then some spotty hints. Now we have confirmation.

On July 5 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of Turkey, will visit Gaza. This is big news. This is a very important statement from the Turkish prime minister.

Making the trip to Gaza is a domestic and an international statement. Erdogan is in the midst of a major civil crisis in Turkey, a crisis in which secularists are rebelling against his point of view and are upset by his Muslim-style shift away from the classic style of Ataturk.

Going to Gaza shows the citizens of Turkey that he, their leader, cares about the downtrodden.

The move also positions Erdogan as a Muslim player and a Muslim leader in the larger world. He becomes one of only a few world leaders who will have visited Gaza. The last Muslim leader to visit Gaza was the emir of Qatar. The emir visited for the same reasons. Of course, he also promised $8 billion in aid.

I am certain that Hamas will ask for money - and that Erdogan will comply. That part of the visit will not go over well at home in Turkey. The Turks have not had a good year economically. They want aid to be spent at home, not spread around abroad.

The people most hurt by aid given to Hamas in Gaza by Turkey are the students and the anti-Erdogan protests.

This trip is like taking two steps forward and one step backward for Turks, but one giant leap forward for the Muslim world.

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Will Russia Pull Out Of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Vedomosti is the Russian business daily. AFP (Agence France Presse) ran a piece citing Vedomosti that took me by surprise. In fact, I find it hard to imagine that the report is correct.

It said that Russia was packing up and leaving Syria. That they are only going to be leaving 3 to 5 war ships in Tartus, the Russian naval base in Syria.

The newspaper claims that there are no longer any Russian military personnel on the ground in Syria and that the Naval facility is operating on a skeleton crew.

The paper clarified that the number does not count the Russian technical advisers.

The reason it is so hard for me to believe this story is that Russia does not want that their $3 to 4 billion naval facility to fall into the hands of the rebels --- especially the al Qaeda rebels. They will do anything to make certain that does not happen.

That said, 5 warships can easily include the Russian aircraft carrier which is a mini air force and army all by itself. There is no doubt in my mind that Russia will not, at this stage, pack up and leave. There is too much at stake. If they were going to leave they would be doing so in order to throw a bone to the United States.

There is no way that Russia will leave Syria at this point. I need to find other substantial and reliable sources to confirm this story.

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US & Russia Can't Agree on Syria Meet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The United States and Russia really want to have a conference to solve the crisis in Syria. But they cannot agree on so many items, that their 5 hour meeting about the meeting ended as a dismal failure.

The US and Russia could not even agree on the date and the timing of a meeting. And they could not agree on who should attend the meeting.

Who should attend is the biggest bone of contention.

Should Iran come? Russia says yes, the US says no. Iran is one of the most important players influencing what happens on the ground in Syria. Russia follows immediately after --- but should their desire take precedence over the desire of the United States?

And they could not agree on who would represent the rebels.

This is a classic example of "hand tied diplomacy." The hands of both parties are tied, now they must return home to get a better understanding of the flexibility of their country regarding these critical issues. So they agreed to meet again in order to meet again.

In the end, the next meeting will probably not result in a conference. The tide has changed in Syria and by the time the US and Russia resolve their issues, Assad will be well on his way towards wiping out the rebels. In the end, a US/Russia conference on Syria will be a moot point.

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Gaza Rockets Break Quiet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The quiet lull that had settled in between Gaza and Israel has been broken.

A series of rockets has been launched from Gaza into Israel. Some of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile triangulation system. But others fell on Israel's border communities.

The Israeli air force struck back, hitting launch sites and weapon storage caches inside Gaza.

It is clear that the shooters were not Hamas - the relative quiet/lull was broken by the Islamic Jihad. But Hamas is in charge of Gaza. Islamic Jihad is the second largest group.

What was Islamic Jihad's motivation? They risk an internal conflict with Hamas.

It all has to do with Syria.

Hamas has called for and is supporting the rebels and Islamic Jihad is supporting the Assad regime. Iran has withdrawn its support for Hamas but it is definitely still supporting Islamic Jihad.

This internal tension is extremely important to understand. Islamic Jihad is preening for Iran. Islamic Jihad is clearly illustrating to Iran that Hamas is not - I repeat, is not - totally in charge in Gaza and that Iranian agenda can be put into play in Gaza for the right amount of money.

If Hamas wishes to survive this internal dispute they have one option: they must crush the Islamic Jihad.

If Islamic Jihad persists in their rocket attacks into Israel I expect Hamas to crack down very hard and eliminate the ability of their foe to challenge Hamas on the local and the regional scene.

If Israel ends up being the beneficiary of this in-fighting, so be it.

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Egypt: Army May Take Over
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian army is starting to move towards what may turn into a full blown coup, or at the very least, a show of military strength and power.

The Egyptian chief of staff is also the minister of defense. His name is General Abdel Fattah el Sissi. He was appointed by Morsi.
Because he has remained silent through much of the conflict it was assumed that he, and the military, will back Morsi.

But that seems not to be the case.

Over the past few weeks there has been much publicity about the June 30 anti-Morsi rally and protest. Over 15 million signatures have been collected and the attendees and supporters hope to oust the president. The date June 30 is significant because that is the anniversary of the election that placed Morsi in power.

Sissi has made it clear that many things that Morsi has done have hurt Egypt. He has also made it very clear that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be permitted to attack the protestors.
Minister of Defense Sissi seems to have changed his stance of when on intervene. Until now he had hinted that the military would intervene only in national crisis when the collapse of the state was impending. Now listen to what he just said:

"Those who think that we (the military) are oblivious to the dangers that threaten the Egyptian state are mistaken. We will not remain silent while the country slips into a conflict that will be hard to control."

"It is not honorable that we remain silent in the face of the terrorizing and scaring of our Egyptian compatriots. There is more honor in death than watching a single Egyptian harmed while his army is standing idly by."

Sissi gave the parties a week to work out their differences. After that, the army may be stepping in to protect the protestor and maybe to even oust Morsi.

Stay tuned. June 30 is only a week away.

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Palestinian Snipers Fight For Assad
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Palestinians are fighting for the Assad regime and against the rebels.

CNN ran a piece in which their correspondent followed a team of Palestinian snipers. He watched from their perch as a Palestinian sniper picked off rebels and followed the opposing snipers in their perch.

In urban warfare snipers are one of the most effective and essential tools. They keep the enemy from freely moving and wreak havoc and fear. An effective sniper can instill a sense of trepidation in your every move, always waiting for the silent distance shot which can be so deadly.

The CNN correspondent asked the commander of the Palestinian sniper unit to describe his enemy. "They are mostly Islamists from al Qadea and Jabhat al-Nusra. Mostly foreigners from the Emirates, Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also Syrians and Palestinians."

This is great insight into the conflict.

Who is siding with whom? Al Qaeda is al Nusrah and the rest are almost all foreigners to Syria - even some Palestinians.

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New Palestine PM Resigns
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Just a few days ago I wrote about the new Palestinian Prime Minister. Rami Hamdallah was British educated and received his PhD in English.

He was an outsider to politics. And that is why he was chosen by Abbas, the president.

The big question was this: could Rami Hamdallah handle the position of prime minister, the pressure, the fighting, the turf-wars and the egos? Many thought he would be consumed by the beast called Palestinian Politics.

We have the answer. Hamdallah has resigned. His deputies were Abbas people and they reported directly to Abbas, bypassing the prime minister. They had no interest in sharing power with Hamdallah.
They viewed Hamdallah as an unnecessary person in a job that they were already filling.

There was tremendous conflict. As prime minister, Rami Hamdallah had no power and no role. On Thursday, after his submitting his resignation, he left in his own private car. Hamdallah did not take the official car and driver, a symbolic way of saying I have had enough, I am truly out of here.

Abbas will most certainly accept the resignation and move on.

There is no election process in the Palestinian Authority. Abbas is the sole leader. In Gaza, Hamas has the same policy under Ismail Haniyeh.

In neither place is there any challenge to leadership.

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NSA Snooping - Perspective
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It is time for a little perspective on the NSA snooping scandal.

There is no doubt that the information took America by surprise. That is because our leadership has never appropriately explained that this information is being gathered by them.

But in the year 2013 everyone in the US should realize that there is no such thing as privacy. Anytime you go outside you are photographed. Anytime you use a phone or computer hookup you can be tracked.

Not simply by the government ... by thieves and by every person and organization trolling the waves.

If there is anything I can honestly say with 100% certainty it is that there is nothing we do that can be kept private. Today, the only expectation of privacy you have is with your lawyer and in your bedroom, provided there are no electronics on line in either room.

This NSA issue is important, but when looked at dispassionately, it appears that only 300 US lines were targeted. And only 10 people in the NSA are permitted to discuss the information with the FBI.

The United States must monitor terrorists around the world, and when those discussions and/or leads come to the US, they must follow the information and connect the dots.

That is what they did. The fault lies not in doing what must be done, it lies in so poorly explaining what must be done and why.

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Hamas Summer Terror Camps
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It is summer time again. And that means that Hamas is running their "terror for kids" camp program.

Hamas expects that there will be 100,000 kids in the summer camps.
Much of the program is dedicated to training. The curriculum has toy weapons, live fire, crawling under flames, swinging through smoke and the like. There are mock kidnappings and mock interrogations.

Hamas perceives the camps perfect recruitment centers. In addition to providing the children with something to do in the hot Gaza summers, Hamas instills and brainwashes their core values.

Interestingly, the largest camp system for Hamas children in Gaza is run by the UN. UNRA expects that they will have 150,000 campers. What do you know, but the UN facilities and storage areas have been vandalized.

The UN is hoping to provide an alternative to the Hamas thesis of education. The UN educational program may not be pro Israel, but it is certainly a thorn in the side of Hamas and Hamas will continue to sabotage and intimidate and do everything they can to mitigate the role the UN has in the lives of Hamas children.

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US & Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The US has officially concluded that the Assad regime has used gas against the rebels. It is clear that the red line that President Obama drew has been crossed.

So what can the United States do? There are no good options.

The administration has finally concluded that the rebels are not good guys and that there are many groups of rebels. The US now, should I say finally, realizes that a significant part of the rebels are al Qaeda.

Arming the rebels would be arming enemies of the United States. And the rebels are fighting each other. So even if the US gives weapons to rebels who are not anti-US, those same weapons could easily be given to, or taken by, rival rebel groups.

Drawing the red line was a political mistake. It was originally simple rhetoric. But then the president and his administration repeated the phrase so often that, in the end, the result will be that the United States loses face in the Middle East.

The United States now sees the downside of keeping Assad in power. If Assad stays in power, US interests and strength in the region could be severely damaged. The US will lose clout and Mid East leaders will be more likely to enjoy the courtship of Russia and Iran. Ironically, Russian and Iranian leaders are men of their word, not mere rhetorical wordsmiths.

Worse case scenario US weapons fall into the hands and arsenals of al Qaeda and Bashar Assad emerges victorious. If that is the way things play out, be assured that it will negatively impact the United States for the very long term.

All because of the need to publicly articulate a red line.

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Iran's New President - Rohani
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remarkable!

A new president has been elected in Iran. Hassan Rohani has won over 50% of the votes in the primary eliminating the need for next week’s run off.

Rohani was one of 6 contenders. All of the candidates were extremely well vetted. All were on good terms with The Grand Ayatollah, otherwise they would not have been permitted to run.
Rohani is being touted in the West as a reformer - and that is not true.

Rohani won for several reasons. He has the most flexible personality of all the contenders. He had a much broader electoral base than the other contenders. He crossed over ideological lines. And he was Khatami's candidate which is why he is being referred to - erroneously, as a reformist.

Rohani was also Rafsanjani's candidate, which made him a pragmatist. He bridged groups while the other candidates split the conservative vote.

In the end, and this is all that matters, The Grand Ayatollah is pleased because Rohani is someone he can work with to create domestic and foreign policies based on broad consensus.

Rohani is exactly the opposite of Ahmadinejad. One represents internal bridges, the other represented isolation.

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Hamas Losing Funding
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There has been some media coverage about Iran pulling its support for Hamas in Gaza.

The Iranians have said they will not support Hamas because Hamas supports the rebels in Syria and Iran supports the Assad regime.

Now Sweden has also announced that they will no longer be sending aid to Gaza. The Swedes say that the funds are simply not going where they should be going. The aid was supposed to help set up real government institutions and accountability. And that has not happened.

Qatar who pledged $8 billion to Hamas has fallen way short of their pledge and they are not planning on giving any more. Qatar seems preoccupied with other issues.

It seems that the Palestinians in Gaza are in for a very long, hot, difficult summer. And I mean that both literally and figuratively.

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Pay Attention to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone has been preoccupied with the protests in Turkey and the fast changing events in Syria. Egypt has fallen to the back burner, but that doesn't mean that it is a country at rest.

Syria and Turkey continue to percolate and even bubble over --- and big problems continue to brew in Egypt.

A massive opposition demonstration is scheduled to take place in Egypt on June 30th. A petition launched in late May against new Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi has already gathered 7 million signatures. That is 10% of the country. Remarkable. The petition is called "Tamarod" or "The Rebel." The signers want Morsi out.

The protest has a name. It will signal the start of a new movement and is to be called "The June 30 Revolution."

Several Islamic groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have announced a counter demonstration. The counter demonstration will take place on Friday June 21 - the week before the opposition demonstration. If the early counter demonstration is successful and throngs of people attend, it will most likely result in pushing more secular and Christian Egyptians to the June 30 protest.

Either way, Morsi's days seem to be numbered. Along with Syria and Turkey, Egypt is spinning out of control.

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Wounded Syrian Tagged w Note to Israeli Drs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The other day two wounded Syrians were brought to Ziv hospital in Safed.

When they arrived the medical team noticed that tacked on to one of the wounded men was a letter, in Arabic, describing the wounds, the treatment and the surgery that had been performed earlier.

The letter is extremely polite. It reads: "Dear Respectable Surgeon, Hello. This patient is 28 he suffered from a bullet wound to the chest and shrapnel to the diaphragm and liver. " ... "His chest has been opened and the bleeding is stopped."

It goes on to explain several other procedures that were tried and offers some recommendations. Most importantly, it lists the medications that the patient is on.

According to the Israeli hospital they were able to operate on the Syrian patient and save his life. The original surgery performed in Syria and the information garnered from the letter was very helpful.

The letter is wrinkled. It is signed by the Syrian physician and dated 10-6-13. The letter ends, "Please do what is necessary. Thank you in advance."

Twenty Syrians have recently been brought to Israeli hospitals for emergency surgery. This is the first time where there has been any collaboration between the Syrian and Israeli medical teams.

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Israel Thwarts Terror Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel has thwarted five major terror attacks and prevented thirty kidnappings since the beginning of the year.

This is significant because these are potential attacks and kidnappings that we know about. These were attacks where the terrorists were caught and apprehended. But there are countless others that are thwarted by the terrorists themselves.

In most attacks gone awry the terrorists abort their mission and there is no way of knowing how many of those attempted attacks/attempted kidnappings that may be. A terrorist could cancel for numerous reasons, but most often it is because when the terrorist arrives at the target he or she realizes that the target is secure.

When that happens the terrorists, even the suicide bomber, turns around and tries to blend back into the background. The suicide bomber wants as many people to be hurt and killed as possible. If he is not able to approach his target and get the bomb into position for maximum effect, he will abort.

In all probability 5 attacks and 50 kidnappings is really 10 attacks and 120 kidnappings.

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Syria: Rebels Feel Crunch
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The rebels in Syria are feeling the crunch. As Assad gains more and more momentum they ratchet up their moves.

A major call has been sent out through al Qaeda and other Islamic websites for fighters to swarm to Syria - because without them, the fight will be lost.

Assad's forces, combined with Hezbollah fighters and Iraqi followers of the Shiite religious leader Muktar al Sadr, have joined together and they are now creating a pincer move against Aleppo which had been under rebel control since last year.

Al Qaeda forces from Syria and Iraq publicly executed a 15 year old boy from Aleppo. He was brutally, publicly, murdered and his parents forced to watch. The crime was heresy.

The boy was reported to have said "even if Mohammed comes down from heaven I will still not be a believer." The boy was overheard saying this in the street while selling drinks.

Al Qaeda needed to make an example of him. They shot him through the mouth and then again in the neck. Their goal is to motivate people to toe the Islamist line.

On the rebel side, volunteers are getting uniforms and weapons and then shaking down locals for goods and money. But they are vastly outnumbered in terms of personnel and arms.

In Syria right now the real ruler is anarchy.

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Irans Ask US For Israel's Red Lines
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I do not often quote the website Debka. It is a site that focuses on and gives insight and intelligence about what is happening in the Middle East.

My major critique of Debka is that they have no real edit function.
Whatever comes in goes out. There is no filter on the intel they report prioritization of possible outcomes.

It is, however, excellent raw data - even when the data is inaccurate.

Debka recently reported that Iran has approached the United States through back channels in order to have them ask Israel exactly what their red lines are.

And, indeed, the United States has dispatched a messenger to ask Israel that very question. It is not clear how, or even if, Israel responded.

If true -- it is interesting that Iran seems to be interested in finding a way to down from the very high tree that they have climbed.

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US Tests Bunker Buster
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

YNET reported on Friday that the US has successfully completed a series of tests with their newest and most potent Bunker Buster bomb, the GBU-57.

The United States publicly announced the success of the GBU-57after first sharing the results of the tests with their allies.

They released this information in order to reassure the West, especially Israel, that the new weapon in the possession of the United States can easily wipe out the underground nuclear silos that Iran has so infamously created to protect their own atomic program.

Rest assured that Iran, too, will be getting this message.

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Al Qaeda & The Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the head of al Qaeda, has a new audio tape that was broadcast though the internet yesterday. For 22 minutes Zawahiri gave long and explicit directions to al Qaeda followers throughout the world.

Zawahiri called for a jihad against Israel and against Assad of Syria. The Jihad that Zawahiri is calling for is not the introspection or deep religious thought that some apologists for Islam so often repeat. He explicitly called on Muslims to unite against America, Israel, Assad and Iran.

He said: "Lions of the Levant, unite around this honorable goal and rise above sectarian affiliations."

He said: "America, its agents and allies want you to shed your blood and the blood of your children and women to bring down the criminal Baathist regime, and then set up a government loyal to them and to safeguard Israel's security."

He said: "There is no solution for Palestine except Jihad."

He said: "Every free Muslim in Palestine should unite with his Muslim brothers to implement Sharia (Islamic law) and rule by it, and make it a reference above all references, and to liberate Palestine in order to set up an Islamic state, even if the West hates that and calls it terrorism and extremism."

Zawahiri uses very different metaphors in Arabic than bin Laden did - but make no mistake, the message is the same.

Oust all western influence, defeat all none Islamic totalitarian states, replace them with Islamic states, united - stand together against the anti Islamic western forces.

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Assad Takes Back Crucial City
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qusayr has been retaken by the Assad regime with the help of Hezbollah. It took a few days of fighting, but now all the mines have been cleared and the fighting has stopped. The city had a population of about 40,000 people before the fighting erupted two years ago.

Al Qusayr is in south western Syria, about 35 miles from Homs and right on the border of the northern border of Lebanon. It is an extremely important city strategically speaking.

Al Qusayr has always been composed of Sunnis, Alawites and Christians. Before the revolt the majority were Sunnis with a large minority of Christians and some small handful of Alawites.

The largest chariot on chariot battle in history took place in Al Qusayr (then called Qadesh) in 1274 BCE between the Egyptians under Ramesses II and the Hittites.

From the beginning of this rebellion the rebels controlled Al Qusayr. They brutalized and publicly executed people who were thought to be informants. The city was the epicenter for many defectors from the Syrian army and it actually had a defector tank in its rebel armory.

Until yesterday, the Assad regime had repeatedly failed in trying to recapture the city. Assad won the city back because, this time around, most of the fighting was done by Hezbollah.

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Iran Nuke Site Busher Might Not Be Safe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Major concerns have arisen about Iran's nuclear status. The fear is that the only active nuclear energy plant in Busher has suffered serious infrastructure damage from the several enormous earthquakes that hit the region in April and May.

Diplomats are saying that they have real concerns that there are meter long cracks in the facility - despite statements made by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that there has been no damage.

The Busher plant opened in September 2011, but plant construction was begun in 1975 by Germany and was completed by Russia. They say that there was no damage to the plant and that the construction was designed to withstand an earthquake of 8.0 on the Richter scale.

The first big April quake was 7.7. May's quake registered 6.6 the first day and then 5.2 the next day. These are very large quakes erupting almost right on top of the nuclear facility. And the tremors are not single events - they are regular, ongoing, strong shakes of the ground around the supporting walls that protect the nuclear core.

There is no question that these acts of nature had an impact on the integrity and the safety of the entire nuclear power plant.

I would be worried. And I would not live anywhere close to Busher.
Remember Chernobyl.

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Reasons For Riots in Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It is important to view the rioting in Turkey with the proper perspective.

Thousands have been arrested. The destruction is very ugly. But what has been happening in Turkey for the past four days, without letup, is not an Arab Spring.

Part of the success of the rioting is due to the Arab Spring, but Turkey is the most democratic of all Muslim countries - they have free elections - and the concept of Arab Spring is antithetical to democracy.

Current leadership in Turkey, under Recep Erdogan, has been in place since 2003. Erdogan won three landslide victories. But now the time is approaching for municipal elections and Turks are using the opportunity to express their frustration.

Turkish protestors are all secularists. Erdogan is a liberal Islamist.

The protestors are calling Ergodan a dictator. They reject his ideas and his policies. They are frustrated by his economic policy and his foreign policy. They are angry. The Web is lit up about
the protests.

Erdogan, for his part, has called the protestors hoodlums and looters.

The protests originated with a rejection of the re-planning and redesign of trees in Taksim Park in central Istanbul. The government was planning on pulling up trees. But we all know that these protests are not about trees - they were the fuse that ignited the anger and hatred.

When Erdogan said that the park re-planning will go on as planned, he showed just how distant he is from the message of the protestors. And the protestors are spelling and acting out their message loud and clear.

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Syria Issues Travel Warning for Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is now in the middle of a severe social crisis.

Throngs of people have taken to the streets in Turkey's largest cities to show their displeasure with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They call him a dictator. The internet, the blogosphere and twitter are filled with attacks against the leader of Turkey. In response, thousands of Turks have been arrested.

While this is happening, Syria has announced a travel warning about Turkey. Beware and be careful when traveling to Turkey, they say.
The Syrian foreign ministry and its embassies have published warnings about the dangers of traveling in Turkey.

Look who's calling the kettle black.

But it's working. Just yesterday, Sunday, on the second day of the riots, 7000 Syrians crossed back into Syria from Turkey. And last week at least 20,000 Syrians returned to Syrian from Iraq.

It sounds strange, but Syrians are finding safety in their own war torn country. The irony of that situation should not be lost.

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Russia & Iran Helping Assad
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It should come as no surprise that the Russia and Iran are helping Syrian President Bashar Assad stay in power.

Yesterday the Washington Post reported that the Russians and the Iranians are providing advanced, sophisticated weapons to Assad which causing the pendulum to shift in his direction.
The specific weapons the piece referred to are drones.

The piece quotes rebel force leaders saying that they have seen many more drones in the sky recently and that they successfully shot down several of them. After downing the drones the rebels saw that the drones were made in Iran and Russia.

There is no doubt that Russia and Iran are helping Assad and that they are providing important military assistance that includes weapons and technology. They are also providing tactics and intelligence.

In some cases the gift of drones may have included more than just the weaponry. Some of those drones actually may have been operated by Russia and Iran, not Syria.


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15,000 International Troops Gather in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next week 15,000 troops from 18 countries will participate in a drill in Jordan. The drill will last two weeks and the countries have said following the drill they intend on leaving their troops in Jordan in case they are needed in Syria.

Here are some of the countries participating in the drill, Britain, Bahrain, Canada, Czech Republic, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, Lebanon.

The participating countries are saying that the purpose of this drill is to create a response to Syria in the event that things go from bad to worse.

So far, at least officially, the 18 countries are there to potentially offer humanitarian aid. They are also there to help with logistics. And yet, some of the countries are already using terms like "intervene" and "create a no fly zone."

At this point I do not see these 15,000 troops crossing the border and joining the rebels. The main reason for that is that the rebels will see them as a threat. So the task of these soldiers is clear - to provide humanitarian aid and move people to safety. That help should not be underestimated.

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Hezbollah Evicts Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Two best friends are now feuding in the Middle East. And the feud is ugly.

Hezbollah and Hamas have been cohorts for decades. They have been partners in arms, in training, in ideas, in just about everything - except that one is Shiite and the other is Sunni. Hezbollah and
Hamas were able to put aside this looming divide for the great goal - hating Israel.

But yesterday Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah expelled all Hamas members from Lebanon, effective immediately. The conflict is over Syria and support for Assad.

Hezbollah is fighting for Assad and Hamas has sided with the rebels. Hamas has made repeated and numerous public statements supporting the rebels. In response, from the outset of the revolt, Assad evicted Hamas from Syria.

This is just another example of how fractured and unpredictable the Arab world is today.

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Pink Balloons Upset Taliban
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yazmany Arboleda is a 31-year-old artist who lives in New York. He created quite a controversy by giving out free pink balloons in Kabul, Afghanistan over the weekend. The Taliban called it an attack on Islam.

How can giving away 10,000 pink balloons be an attack on traditional Islam? How can it symbolize the West's attempt to destroy Islam?

The artist wanted to put some joy and fun in the lives of the residents of Kabul who he says have suffered so much over the past years.

But on Sunday this is what Qari Habib wrote in Pashto about the balloons.

"Was it a balloon show or a mini-skirt show?"

"The West is using different techniques to promote their culture in Afghanistan. Sometimes they do it in an undercover way."

"Some girls were without headscarves, with tight jeans and tops on, and even with mini-skirts on the streets. The boys were also dressed in Western-style outfits."

"After distributing some balloons, they wandered around Kabul aiming to break the culture of hijab."

Pink balloons could mean so many things... and yes some could be offensive to Islamic society. But as Freud famously said: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

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Is Europe Changing? More Islamic Terror
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A French soldier was stabbed and killed by a Muslim terrorist in Paris just days after a British soldier was beheaded in London. And only a few weeks before that, a Muslim terrorist stabbed a gendarme. While stabbing the police officer the terrorist shouted "Alahu Ahkbar," "Allah is great."

These are critical signs about what is happening in Western Europe. People are starting to ask whether the idea of multiculturalism has failed. Some are suggesting that the tensions between Muslims in Europe and their host cultures are akin to a seething caldron about to over boil resulting in tremendous conflict.

In the past, immigrant communities in Western Europe more or less
remained true to their own traditions, but assimilated culturally.
They wanted to be French or British or Belgium while still remaining whatever they originally were.

In today's Europe many community leaders and schools do not emphasize assimilation and acculturation. Instead, they emphasize separation.

This new immigrant, this new response, this new style --- poses a huge dilemma for Western Europe.

In the past those who did not assimilate were shunned by the masses and were not successful. They were mere vestiges of the past.

Today, in Western Europe, entire communities refuse to acculturate.

A cultural war may be on the horizon.

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Russia Nixes Missile Sale to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

An interesting report ran in the Sunday Times of London and was picked up by almost every Israeli website. The report made a surprising and unconfirmed declaration.

It said that according to a senior Russia official, the Russians will not follow through with their agreement to provide S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. The report asserts that Russia fears that the missile will fall into the wrong hands and could be used against civilian targets in Israel.

"We are very much concerned about this; the large Russian community in Israel is a major factor in our attitude to Israel, and we will not let this happen," the official told the Sunday Times.

The report concludes that Russia wants assurances that Israel will no longer attack Syria now that the missile deal is off.

All this was supposedly agreed upon a few days ago during a trip made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to Russia. The entire trip lasted only a few hours.

Until now, until this announcement came out, that trip was publicly evaluated to be a major failure.

Of course there is no confirmation on this. And given the current state of affairs in the region it is highly unlikely that Israel would agree in advance not to strike Syria. But I certainly look forward to finding out more about this whole matter.

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Saudis Warn Iran Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

We do not spend enough time discussing inner disputes within the Muslim world. Some of the tensions within that world are enormously illustrative in explaining the various angles and sides in the Muslim inner conflict.

I will even go as far as to say that some inner Muslim divisions might never go away.

For example, earlier today Prince Saud al-Faisal, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, held a press conference with the foreign minister of India in Jiddah.

Here is what al Faisal said about Iran and the nuclear issue: "We stress the danger of the Iranian nuclear program to the security of the whole region."

No Western force put those words in his mouth.

There are centuries of distrust and even hatred between Iranian/Persian and Arab worlds. They are arch enemies with great animosity. The last thing Saudi Arabia wants is to see the Iranians become a nuclear power. If for no other reason than that it would mean that the Iranians have a leg up on the Saudis.

If the Iranians become a nuclear power before the Saudis do, it could trigger a Middle East arms race.

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Muslims Sympathize w/ The Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The beheading in London has some interesting elements that should be addressed.

The most important is that the sympathizers, those who support the actions of the two Islamic terrorists, see a very different scenario than do most of us.

I am not referring to British foreign policy that was so coldly presented in front of the camera by the terrorist. I am referring to the fact that terrorist sympathizers will see the victim, Lee Rigby, as a military target.

To them it does not matter that Rigby was a drummer in the band or that he was out of uniform. He was coming from the base and he was a full time soldier. In the eyes of the sympathizers, just as in the eyes of the terrorists themselves, that means Rigby was a valid target.

Reuters ran an interview with Imam Omar Bakri - who was deported from England and is a teacher of these terrorists. The Imam expressed his pride and his surprise that terrorist Michael Abeolajo had the courage to fight and defend Islam. The Imam said that he was happy to see Abeolajo, "standing firm, courageous, brave. Not running away."

"The prophet (Mohammad) said an infidel and his killer will not meet in Hell. That's a beautiful saying," Iman Omar Bakri said. "May God reward (Adebolajo) for his actions."

"If you breach the covenant of security with Muslims you are digging your grave," he said. "I cannot condemn what Michael did. I don't see it as a crime as far as Islam is concerned."

Bakri also spoke bout moderate Muslims and those Muslims who condemned the attack. The Imam said that his form of Islam was winning the bulk of converts in Britain and scoffed at the "moderate chocolate" Muslims who he said are "always melting the way the West wants them to be - they never stand for what they believe." "They are just a waste of space."

Everyone does not see the world as we do. For certain elements of the Muslim world, terrorism = heroism.

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Bibi's Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry is in Israel. He met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and then went to Ramallah, seat of the Palestinian Authority, and met with President Mahmoud Abbas.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague is doing the same loop.
Netanyahu has said all the right things - the critique he is getting is for saying and not doing.

Here lies the problem. Netanyahu does not want the peace process to move ahead but he must pay lip service to the peace process for the sake of the United States and for his own electorate. The vast majority of Israelis, like the United States, favor a two-state solution.

Up until now Netanyahu has bet on the fact that the Palestinians would not be able to come to the table and, if they did sit down at the table, they would not be able to deliver. It never hurt Netanyahu to say all the right things.

Now the question is this: how effective will Kerry be to in aiding the Palestinians to deliver on issues related to security, police protection, justice and education.

Kerry's success will result in calling Netanyahu's bluff and forcing his reluctant hand.

Up until now Netanyahu has done all that can be expected. The only way the Israeli can do anything more is if the Palestinians are brought back to the negotiation table.

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Momentum Shifts in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria, the pendulum swings almost daily.

After several weeks of momentum on the side of the Assad regime, the pendulum has begun to swing back and forth. From Assad to the rebels to Assad and now back towards the rebels.

Momentum is about "feeling." Big wins, losses, massacres - the triumphs and tragedies of war - are what cause the momentum to shift.

The rebel group al Qaeda al Nusrah captured a Syrian army base killing 40 soldiers and Assad affiliates. The base is near Nayrab which is on the road from Aleppo going west to the Mediterranean Sea.

This was a huge blow to Assad. Not just because he lost 40 soldiers but because he lost them to al Qaeda. In addition, the army base was on an extremely crucial access point.

The Syrian forces were not the best trained or the best equipped, but losing to al Qaeda was a significant psychological setback for Assad's soldiers.

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Iran: 2 Nixed As Pres Candidates
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian committee that vets candidates for president has nixed two popular people from next month's presidential elections.

Both men were expected to be disqualified. But there was still a chance that the Guardian Council, the committee that makes these decisions, would have been swayed to make exceptions.

Former president Rafsanjani was barred from running because he is simply too old. The requirements for a candidate in Iran say that you must not be older than 70. Rafsanjani is 78.

The second disqualified candidate is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. He is only 53. But Mashaei had an unfair advantage and that is why needed to be sidelined. Mashaei is very close with President Ahmadinejad and was his former chief of staff.

The kicker, or perhaps the kiss of death, was that when Mashaei went to register as a candidate Ahmadinejad accompanied him. That was in violation of Iranian election law and Mashaei could not benefit from his public association with Ahmadinejad.

The presidential field is still very large. Over the next week the few contenders will the most potential will begin to emerge.

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Obama Talks W Lebanon Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US President Obama spoke on the telephone with Lebanese President Suleiman yesterday.

Obama emphasized his concerns about Syria and about the possibility of the conflict spilling over into Lebanon.

He also explained that he was concerned about Hezbollah which is located in Southern Lebanon, and with their role in supporting Assad.

This is all true.

The real problem, however, emerges in that in Lebanon, Hezbollah is independent. President Suleiman has no control over Hezbollah. If anything, it is Hezbollah that has tremendous influence over Lebanon.

There is no question that Hezbollah is on Assad's side in Syria and they are fighting to help maintain his position.

Most telling is that Obama felt the need to even mention to the president of Lebanon his issues with Hezbollah.

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Syrian Rebels Now Fight Each Other
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Coverage of Syria is pretty biased. It is extremely difficult to get a sense of what is actually happening.

We generally refer to the people fighting Assad as the rebels. But the situation is more complicated than mere labels. Assad and his forces are supported by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian advisers.

The rebels are composed of many groups. Some of the rebels are locals, others are foreigners. Some of the rebels are secular and others are al Qaeda.

Internal bickering between rebel groups has escalated to the point where they have now begun to fight one another. In the northern Syrian city of Aleppo rival rebel groups, both Islamic, are fighting one another. They are kidnapping each others' fighters.

A group called the Judicial Council accused the group called Ghurabaa al Sham of robbing their factories. And now, after about a week of fighting, both groups have taken prisoners.

This is just the beginning. It is highly unlikely that tensions will scale down between the two groups.

Assad is taking advantage of the internal feuding. Assad's forces, together with Hezbollah, began a major offensive with the support of jets and helicopters. The plan is to start taking back strategic areas in the north around Aleppo. These rebels are playing right into his hand.

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Syria - Missiles on Standby
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has set its highly advanced and extremely accurate Tishreen surface-to-surface missiles on standby. And they are aimed at Tel Aviv.

Assad has put the alert command into place. Syria is to launch the missiles immediately after getting the command.
All this is in this morning's Sunday Times of London.

On Saturday, Clarin, an Argentinian newspaper, published an extremely rare interview with Syrian President Bashar Assad saying that the rebels are getting intel and support from Israel.

He said:
"Israel is directly supporting the terrorist groups in two ways, firstly it gives them logistical support and it also tells them what sites to attack and how to attack them. For example, they attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defenses, which can detect any plane coming from overseas, especially from Israel."

There are two reasons for this important declaration.

First, is to try to isolate the rebels by saying that they are being aided by arch enemy Israel. Second, is to justify a Syrian strike against Israel. Israel has already attacked Syria three times and in doing so they are aiding the force which is dedicated to ousting his regime.

This new status makes the already unstable regional atmosphere even more combustible.

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Kerry To Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

United States Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Israel next week.

Expectations have dropped since I first wrote about this impending visit three weeks ago.

The plan has not changed, Kerry with attempt to breathe new life into an old and dead interaction.

Kerry has two agendas to carry out on this quick trip. He will visit Israelis in Jerusalem and meet with Palestinian leadership in Ramallah. He will attempt to sit them down - face to face.

Before arriving in Jerusalem, Kerry will visit Amman, Jordan.

There he will meet with some of the Syrian opposition groups. It is very difficult to meet with the rebel groups of Syria because each one has different loyalties – but none of them are pro-Western.

Kerry believes this trip will have substance to it. I think if will be a lot of fluff.

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Bibi Goes to Moscow & Says Don't Sell to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just returned from China. And today he is off on a very quick trip to Moscow where he will meet with Vladimir Putin.

On this trip only a few aides will join him. His wife and driver, part of his usual entourage, will not be traveling along on this one.

The purpose of the trip is to try to stop Putin from supplying Syria with missiles. Which missiles is still yet unknown. Russia has already delayed the delivery of certain weapons. But Israel would obviously prefer that the deals all be cancelled.

How does Russia justify their selling weapons to Syria? Simple, they want to prevent what happened in Libya from happening in Syria. In Libya, if you recall, a no fly zone called by the United States was used to justify ousting Ghadaffi.

With these weapons it would be very difficult for the United States to fly and attack. Obviously it would also be hard for Israel to fly over Syria and attack. But that does not concern Russia.

Russia wants to help make certain that Syria remains secure and that Assad stays in position without external forces invading. That is their bottom line.

Netanyahu will have to use every diplomatic trick and economic incentive he has to persuade Russia to back off on supplying these missiles to Syria.

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International Conference on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and the US are planning an international conference about Syria. Their objective is to bring the conflict to an end.

The Syrian government in exile, known as the Opposition, is not certain that they will attend. They have been plagued with problems despite succeeding in electing a prime minister, Ghassan Hitto.

The Opposition will meet in 10 days in Turkey to discuss, debate and decide whether they will or will not attend. The reality is that despite their name, Opposition members will have no power in the meeting and no ability to garner power within Syria. And yet - they still may be given control by the United States. Ceremonial, figure head control rather than actual political and military.

Iran has announced that they are in favor of the international meeting and would volunteer to be the intermediary between the regime and the rebels. The problem with that gracious suggestion is that Iran has not been invited to the conference.

The United States does not want Iran at the conference. But in reality, it is Iran - not the United States - together with Russia that really has the power to broker a deal in Syria.

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Syrian Death Toll Reaches 80,000
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported today that the death toll in Syria has topped 80,000.

That 80,000 number should not come as a surprise. The Observatory is a British based pro-rebel - anti regime group.

According to the report, half of those killed have been civilians.

Now the math gets important. Of the 40,000 non civilians killed almost all have been rebels. Take away 10% of that number and you have 4,000 regime soldiers killed in the conflict. That means that 36,000 rebel fighters have been killed.

That is, if the 40,000 number is correct. Whatever the exact number is, many more rebels have been killed than regime soldiers. And that continues to be the case. Intelligence sources say that several thousand foreign fighters cross the border into Syria every month replacing the several thousand that were killed.

To prove the point of The New York Times ran a picture of a Chinese rebel fighting against the regime.

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Protests in Egypt Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A huge anti-Israel protest, coordinated by the Muslim Brotherhood was organized in Cairo, Egypt yesterday.

It was the first anti-Israel rally of this size since Morsi was elected president of Egypt. Ostensibly, the reason for the protest was to voice opposition to Israel's strikes against Syria.

Placards, signs and banners pronounced Death to Israel. Israeli flags were burned and the crowd shouted "Liberate Palestine from the sons of monkeys and pigs." "We will chant it over and over, Israel is our enemy. " "The people want Israel destroyed."

This was a direct attack against Morsi. It was a show of displeasure.

The Muslim Brotherhood is saying that Morsi and Egypt has become too close to Israel. The message is that Egypt must pull back and defend Muslims.

The sentiment being echoed on Arabic Op-Ed pages is that the Arab world was silent after Assad murdered, actually massacred, over 300 Syrians in Banias. But now Iran, Turkey and Egypt are voicing displeasure over the Israeli strikes which did more damage to the Assad regime than anything that has happened to the Syrian leader in the past two years.

How ironic. The only country keeping Bashar Assad in check is Israel.

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Church of Scotland Says Bible Not Literal
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Church of Scotland released a 10 page paper challenging the right of Israel to their ancient land.

The essence of their statement is that the Bible should not be used to resolve political conflicts. According to the Church of Scotland: biblical "promises about the land of Israel were never intended to be taken literally."

This is indeed explosive.

It can be easily said that both Jews and Muslims have competing textual claims to the Holy Land. In both great works extremely important events take place in the land. To say that what is written in the Bible is not to be taken literally is more than to belittle the Bible, it is downright blasphemy. And blaspheme according to Christian standards, not just Jewish standards.

Is the Bible now to be understood as a metaphor and not as the foundation stone of Judaism and Christianity?

There is little question that understanding the Bible requires many layers of analysis. The test of Abraham and the and the binding of Isaac in Genesis 22 which takes place in Salem, or, Jeru Salem is one of the most powerful pieces in all of religious literature.

On every level that story must be understood as a covenant between the progenitor of the Hebrew people and God who no longer desires human sacrifice. To remove that story from Jerusalem and remove the covenant between God and Abraham is to destroy the essence of the monotheism.

The test was not an accident. The chosen location was not serendipitous. It is the foundation of monotheism. That is why the Temple of Solomon was built on that spot and why, at the center of that Temple rests the Foundation Stone - at the place where Abraham bound Isaac, the place where the angel intervened and prevented the father's sacrifice of his son.

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Finally Egypt Permits Bond Sales
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt yesterday President Morsi signed the Sukuk into law.
Sukuk is the equivalent of Islamic investment bonds. If all goes as planned, Morsi may have just begun to create a system that will enable Egypt to sell and raise money for the development of the nation.

Islamic law, known as Shaaria, rejects the concept of interest so normal fixed market bonds are not permitted.

Money cannot produce money. It can only be used as a measurement of value. So, simple interest is shunned. So too are credit cards, most other conventional uses of money and other interest payments. It is permitted to rent and it is permissible to get paid for services.

There is a very important aspect of Sukuk called Maslaha. Maslaha is when there is overwhelming public need and hence the money may be used and invested to create a larger collective good. By creating an aspect of public need in the bond, one can mitigate the potential investment loss.

And that is a method of creating a kosher Sakk (the singular of Sukuk.)

Hopefully this new law will permit Egypt the basics and they will pull themselves up and out of a serious economic crisis.

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Syria & Iran Threaten Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad met with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi yesterday. At the press conference following the meeting Assad said that Syria will deal with Israel.

What most interested me was his comments about the new resistance front which will be the Syrian Golan.
"Resistance" is code for fighting Israel.

Not long ago Assad pulled his forces from the Golan in order to bolster his forces in Damascus. He let al Qaeda and Hezbollah battle it out for control of the heights. But now, over the past week, Assad has sent his forces back into the Golan to confront al Qaeda.

Since the momentum has shifted in general in the battle between the rebels and the regime, Assad has become far more cocky. Even the Israeli strike against his advanced weapons seems not shaken him or deterred his rhetoric.

It is certainly clear that Iran is solidly behind Bashar Assad. That might be the added psychological edge he needed.

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How the Arab World Repsonded to Israel Bombing Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One might assume that the Arab and Muslim world are up in arms about Israel's strike against Syria. But the opposite seems to be the case - with several exceptions.

The blogosphere is full of people condemning the Arabic world and their leaders. Here is an example of what is being said:
"Thanks to Israel. Shame on the Arab and Muslim leaders." This blogger is saying that the only force in the world attacking Syria and protecting Syrians from Assad, is Israel.

"The Egyptian President's Office condemns the Israeli attack in Syria… Did you hear any condemnation from it for the Banias massacre?" In Banias possibly over 300 people were murdered last week by Assad's cronies and there was absolute silence.

"I'm for the resistance (the Arab name for the armed struggle against Israel) and want it to win, but I'm confused."

"Only Iran loyalists object to the Israeli attack and condemn it, since they're afraid for Iran's allies such as Hezbollah and Assad, not because they hate Israel." This happens to be true. Loyalists condemn the attacks saying that Israeli is siding with the rebels. And that makes people uncomfortable.

It is clear that no Arab force has even thought to challenge Assad in the way the Israelis did with precise rocket attacks striking at the regime’s armaments stockpiles.

I am not surprised by the reaction of the Arab world. I am deeply surprised that the West has not even covered this. That shows just how little the West understands the region and the conflict.

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Why Israel Hit Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yes, in the course of 48 hours Israel struck Syria twice and targeted very specific sites.

All day today people have asked me if the strikes are connected to Assad's use of chemical weapons. The answer is flatly NO.

Even asking the question assumes that the major motivating force behind the action is seen in the context of a US issue - in this case the RED LINES that President Obama laid out last year.
Israel struck Syria because it was essential for their - ISRAELI - security.

Israel has a very sophisticated anti missile defense shield. It is a combination of the Arrow, the Patriot and the Iron Dome.

However there is a saturation point. And this was seen in the last conflict with Hamas in Gaza. At the time Israel was able to intercept a significant amount of the rockets - but some got through simply because of the sheer numbers that were launched.
Syria has a significant amount of very dangerous missiles as does Hezbollah. The transfer of SA-17s, Fatah-110s and SCUD-D's to Hezbollah or even receiving any more arms within Syria would be a game changer.

The SA-17 and the Fatah-110 are extremely dangerous. The SA-17 is a Russian battery designed to down fighter jets. It would be very threatening for Israeli aircraft and could hinder an Israeli air force strike against Hezbollah or Syria. The fact that these weapons were being transferred, that they were taken out of storage to be moved into Lebanon, meant that Israel had to act. The Fatah 110 has a range of 250 miles and can strike anywhere in the entire north of Israel.

Israel needed to prune the trees. They needed to reduce the amount of long range, highly sophisticated, missiles that could be used against them. That was the reason for Friday's attack.

The reason for Sunday's attack was to strike at the SCUD - D's.
These rockets have a huge range and if launched, could hit anywhere in Israel. Again Israel has a defense against most of these weapons - but the threshold was crossed and the sheer numbers of weapons to be used against Israel needed to be reduced.

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Israel Strikes Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Within two days Israel has twice struck targets in Syria. The fact that Israel is not confirming the strikes is normal and not a serious issue.

What is very important is that these strikes, one on Friday morning and one on Sunday morning, speak of a plan with a larger objective - not simply a onetime aerial strike.

Identifying the exact targets of the strikes has been more difficult.
If Friday morning's air strike was undertaken only to prevent game changing rockets from moving into Hezbollah control, which is a modest objective, why strike again on Sunday?

The Sunday attack came because the message that Israel was sending out on Friday was not heard by the Syrians. It looks like the target of the Sunday attack was an airport near Damascus, a storage and transfer site.

There has been much guessing about whether Israel crossed Syrian airspace to carry out these missions. The problem with that theory is that the Russians are in control of the space. There are ample methods of attack by missiles that do not put Israeli pilots and planes at risk.

One method would have been to fly over Lebanon. The other option is use smart bombs like the "Popeye." The Popeye can be shot dozens of miles away from the target. It hugs the ground. That could easily have been the choice of weapon.

Further details will emerge - with time.

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Japan-France Build Nuke Plant for Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Mitsubishi of Japan and Areva SA, the French energy company, just signed a $22 billion deal to build a nuclear power plant in Turkey on the Black Sea. The construction should be complete in 10 years.

For Turkey this is a watershed. The Turks spent $60 billion last year experimenting and trying to come up with alternatives that would break their energy dependence. This deal was one of the conclusions they came to.

The biggest problem is that all but two of the nuclear plants in Japan are closed. They are all getting overhauled as a result of the 2011 Fukushima meltdown.

That aside, for Turkey this could create a real sense of energy stability despite the fact that there will be no results from the nuclear plant, no improvement and absolutely no energy for at least a decade.

On that time, by that time there may be a better, safer and cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

Only time will tell. From the perspective of Turkey, the government is proactively addressing the problem - and that is always a positive.

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Land Swaps for Peace
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Tzipi Livni and Shlomo Molocho are in Washington, DC. They are, respectively, Israel's minister in charge of the peace process and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chief special negotiator.

Livni and Molcho are in DC to follow up on meetings held last week between Arab League representatives and Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joe Biden. For the first time ever leaders of the Arab League suggested that they would support land swaps with Israel. That is revolutionary.

I do not think that Bibi is too very happy about the suggestion, but none the less, he must move on it.

Hamas is not too happy either. The official response given by Ismail Haniyeh, the PM in Gaza, was: "Palestine is not land for sale, exchange or purchase." Khaled Mashaal, the international head of Hamas, rejected the idea outright.

Who is pleased? The United States. And many Israelis are excited, even if there is only a minute possibility that a land swap might actually happen. Even the suggestion of a land swap by the Arab League is a sign of flexibility on issues of land and borders - flexibility that has never before been shown towards Israel by leaders of the Arab world.

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Assad Makes An Appearance
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking.

Bashar Assad made a rare public appearance yesterday. The last time the leader of Syria was seen in public was March 30th.

In celebration of May Day Assad visited the Damascus electric power station.

May Day is about unions, socialism and Marxism. It is a long stretch from all that to the Bathist government of Syria. But when you are fighting a brutal, drawn out, civil war like the one Assad is fighting embracing May Day - if only to help gain support of the socialist and the workers - seems like a good idea.

Assad needs to show that he is still engaged and still on top on things.

Assad must make periodic public appearances to show that he is not
afraid.

Assad needs to give the impression that he is maintaining control.
Even if it is all a facade.

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Israeli Maneuvers in the North
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's northern border is extremely tense.

The border Israel that shares with Southern Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah and is in crisis. Civil war rages along the border that Israel shares with Syria. And so Israel called up 2,000 reservists and they are now conducting maneuvers and drills in the north of Israel.

The dangers are great. There have already been numerous cross border incursions.

Explaining the thinking behind the drills Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu said:
"Israel watches with keen interest and concern the latest developments in Syria and Lebanon."
"Syria is breaking down and Lebanon is unstable. Both places posit considerable threats to Israel's security."
"Syria represents two direct threats."

Israel needs to call up reservists for two reasons. Reason # 1 is to send out the message that Israel is prepared and has the resources and power. Reason # 2, and it is a more important reason, is to train the reservists so that they have the experience in the event of a real battle.

Which we hope will not come, but very well might.

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Israel Gets Another Nuclear Sub
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is about to receive their 5th Dolphin Series submarine. It is one of the most sophisticated weapons in the world and one of Israel's secret weapons.

The sub is built by Germany and was modified to meet Israel's specifics requests. A ceremony took place with leaders from both Germany and Israel congratulating themselves on the completion of the sub.

They also agreed to - and are now working on, a 6th sub which will be completed in 2017.

The sub will arrive in Israel in the near future and get an even greater soup up. It will be made into an even more superior weapon and Israel will strip all the elements that would permit Germany to track it.

The 5th Dolphin Series sub it is one of Israel's most expensive weapons.

They can stay underwater indefinitely. They are extremely quiet and do not give off any ping. They are practically a stealth weapon under the sea. They are armed with numerous weapons including nuclear missiles. And their conventional weapons can hit almost anywhere in the world without being detected.

These Dolphin Series submarines are a real game changer.

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Iraqi Kids Treated in Israeli Hospitals
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Continuing the theme of feel good news in the Middle East, a story about how Israel is helping people from other countries feel good - literally.

Just yesterday Israel approved a request for three Iraqi children to be brought to Wolfson Medical Center in Holon for treatment.

The children are aged 1, 4 and 5. They will be treated for heart ailments and hopefully, they will be cured. This program has treated over 3,000 children from 44 countries. Since 2004 they have treated over 180 children from Iraq - and 50 of those children were treated in the past two years.

Israel has also taken in and treated at least seven Syrians hurt in their civil war. The number of Syrians treated in Israeli hospitals is probably much greater, but privacy and security issues do not allow Israel to release more details.

This is remarkably altruistic. This is what Israel does, quietly saving the lives of people in need, even people who come from behind enemy lines.

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Burt Bacharach to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

We spend so much time hashing and rehashing the problems of the Middle East and the threats that emerge and subside in the region that I thought it would be nice to focus on a nice cultural event that will take place this summer, in Israel..

Burt Bacharach will perform one concert in Israel on July 2. The concert will take place in the city of Binyamina.

This will be the first visit of Bacharach to Israel. It is inevitable that the concert will be a huge hit.

Bacharach, who turned 85 in March, is still very spry and very sprite. He is without a doubt one of the greatest song writers in modern history. His greatest works include "What the World Needs Now Is Love Sweet Love" and "Walk On By."

Tickets to the concert cost about $100. Only a few thousand Israelis can attend this kind of event, but the entire country with get a tremendous psychological lift from Bacharach's appearance and concert. It will be all over the internet, on TV and radio and multi picture spreads and articles in the international press.

When international stars come to Israel it is a vote of recognition for the country and Israelis yearn for and thrive on that recognition.

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Jordan King in DC- Don't Trust Them
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

King Abdullah II met with President Obama in the White House yesterday.

It was very productive and useful meeting. The main topic was Syria. Of course there were two different perspectives on how to protect Jordan and on what Jordan can do to help the US.

King Abdullah is a very much at home in DC. He is a Georgetown graduate and has spent decades in the United States. But he should not be deceived by the friendly White House reception and the apparent symbiosis.

In the eyes of the White House Abdullah is just like Mubarak and just a little better than Assad and Ghadaffi. That means that the United States will use and exploit Jordan and will not hesitate to throw the King of Jordan under the bus when it is convenient. They will do exactly what they did to Mubarak.

Interestingly, Al Qaeda has set their sights on Abdullah. They want him out just like they want to Assad out.

Abdullah knows that there are real threats to his monarchy. And he knows that, right now, one of the most stable and responsible allies he has is Israel.

His enemies are counting on the US to abandon Jordan.

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Iran is Making Another Move
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Reuters ran an interview with Iran's deputy nuclear negotiator. His name is Ali Bagheri.

In the interview Bagheri explains that Iran is now ready to move forward and negotiate with the West. He says that Iran is awaiting EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton's phone call.
About Uranium enrichment Bagheri said that Iran's 20% uranium enrichment was for research reactors only.

"We produce 20% uranium to provide fuel for Tehran's research reactor, also four other reactors in four different parts of Iran which are under construction. With this in mind, plans have been drawn up to convert 20% uranium to 20% oxide."

That makes a total of 5 nuclear reactors working with 20% enriched uranium. Converting it to oxide powder is very positive and encouraging. Once the uranium is converted to oxide it cannot be reconverted.

Sounds good, but was he speaking the truth? Iran is great at spin.

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Rebels Have Anti Tank Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 25, 2013

I'm Predicting:

If there is one thing for certain it is that both sides in the Syrian battle have staying power.

And it looks as if, barring some colossal military maneuvering, the battle will continue to be waged. Game changers would be Assad becoming even more brutal and using more of his heavy weapons or the rebels getting access to more and better weapons.

Over the past few weeks the rebel forces have shown us that they do have a handful of very accurate and extremely potent anti tank weapons. They have the ATGM, the anti tank guided missile. That was their weapon of choice in fights around Damascus.

The ATGM has the potential to change the balance of the Syrian battle and even the outcome of the conflict. The guided missile is a point-and-shoot, error proof system. And it destroys tanks.

Part of Assad's strength until now has been that his tanks, helicopters and fighter jets advance at free will. There was no real response to them. That has changed. Now Assad's tanks cannot move at will. And when stationary, they are sitting ducks and easy targets for the ATGM.

There's more. Because the rebels have the ATGM Assad cannot relocate his tanks to other locations where they might be needed. On the open road or flatbeds they can be picked off with apparent ease.

But here's the problem for the rebels. It seems that they only have a handful of ATGMs. If they had more, they would use them.

The ATGM weapons are made by the Russians and by the United States. It is unlikely that the Russians gave them to the rebels. But the rebels could have bought them from a secondary source. The Americans cannot sell them to the rebels but it s possible that the CIA gave them to a group who gave them to the rebels as an experiment.

Either way, if more ATGMs appear in the battle field expect Assad to respond with even greater and more brutal force.

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EU Allows Oil Sales From Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The European Union has lifted their ban against importing Syrian oil.

Of course, there are still conditions to be met before allowing Syrian oil into the European market. The oil must come from fields controlled by Syrian rebels fighting to oust the Assad regime.

It makes sense. This way, the rebels can their own raise capital and buy whatever they need in order to fuel their fight against Assad.

News outlets around the world are touting this as a brilliant move. It would be - if only all of the pieces were actually true.

It is true that since December of last year most of the oil fields and pumping wells In Syria have been taken from Assad and they are now under the control of the rebels.

But the rebels that control the oil fields in Syria are al Qaeda rebels. So what the EU has done is allow al Qaeda the ability to sell oil to Europe. And that is, to say the least, extremely dangerous.

Allowing al Qaeda that kind of access to Europe with something as vital as oil and then giving them the proceeds is tantamount to a death wish for Europe.

There is no doubt that ousting Assad is a priority for most of Europe. But intentionally helping al Qaeda? That cannot have been on the EU agenda. If it is, then God help us all. I hope it was just a big, awful mistake - that will be rectified.

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Israel Using Jordan Air Space
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Le Figaro is one of the most responsible newspapers published in Europe. The paper, which is published in Paris, exposed a scoop which, if true, signals a real regional game changer for the Middle East.

Le Figaro published a story claiming that President Obama convinced Jordan to permit Israel use of their air space in order to gather intelligence from Syria. The paper wrote that Jordan is even permitting Israel use of their air space to launch attacks against the Syrians.

This is no small feat. Not very often does an Arab country make the decision to permit the Jewish Western country carte blanche to fly over and above them in order to access Syria.

Obviously, Jordan wants to oust the Assad regime. The United States has also gone on record saying that they want Assad ousted. But Israel does not want to take sides in the conflict .

What Israel and friends of Israel should want is a stable government in Syria. Stable countries build a stable region. Israel knows that.

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Bibi to Visit China
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next month, in May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to make his first trip to China.

This is a very important trip for the prime minister. Netanyahu has tried to visit China on an official trip on numerous occasions - both in his first term, his second term and now his third term as PM.
China is the key to many world issues and if Israel can form an alliance with China, any type of alliance, it will propel them along the road to great success.

Israel views China as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. China is the fastest growing economy in the world and it needs and would greatly benefit from the exciting R&D and technology that Israel is creating.

Economically, Israel wants to open more trade with China. They want to develop more technological and scientific agreements with China. Politically, Israel wants to try to convince China of the dangers presented by Iran.

Now China has its own agenda. The Chinese want to pressure Israel to make more concessions on the peace front with the Palestinians. And the Chinese will enjoy teasing the United States by dangling potential deals in front of Israel.

Hopefully, there will be no missteps or mishaps between now and May and the trip will go on as planned. But in the Middle East, you never know what might happen.

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Israelis Man ER in Boston
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There are many parallels between the Boston Marathon double bombing and the terror that plagues Israel.

Interestingly, some of the doctors in the Boston hospital made the same comparison - because they are Israelis or were Israeli trained.

YNET, the Israeli online paper of Yediot Ahronot, ran a spectacular piece featuring the Director of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Kevin Ilan Tabb. Tabb did his medical training and residency at Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. He is now on the hospital board.

Tabb said the head of their ER is Israeli and they have several other Israeli doctors in the emergency room. There is no doubt that they have a lot of experience with this kind of terror specific trauma.

The hospital director indicated that the two most difficult components in treating patients after terrorist attacks is admitting so many emergencies at one time and treating victims lying in beds right next to the terrorists in their beds.

Medical professionals try to save whoever comes through the door. But the families of the victims are most often far less compassionate.

If you had any doubt before this horrific, brutal and uncivilized act, it should be clear now. The West, especially Israel and the United States, have much to learn from one another - and they are linked inextricably, if only because their enemies unite them.

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This Terror Cell is Impossible to Defend Against
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The brothers who perpetrated the Boston Marathon bombings proved an important axiom of terror and the prevention of terrorist acts.

The most dangerous and the most difficult acts of terror to prevent are those perpetrated by terrorists who are religiously and ideologically committed to their mission. In the United States that includes those who are culturally and socially assimilated.

If there are others out there like these two brothers it will be almost impossible to intervene before they reach their targets. And there are others out there like them, that is a certainty. The only chance we have is that to secure soft targets and catch the perpetrators after they have committed their terrorist acts.

These brothers are a combination of the consummate sleeper cell and the crafty lone wolf.

They waited and planned this attack and all the while they were totally off the grid. They arranged an escape plan and even had alternative plans. They clearly strategized on how to inflict the most harm at the end of the race. And they knew how to strike at and destroy families waiting for their loved ones to cross the finish line. They knew their prime targets would be waiting for them a full three hours after the winners crossed the line. The terrorists were not interested in the race winners, usually foreign, professional, marathon runners.

The Boston Marathon terrorists did not need to be part of a larger group. They were a group. That is why no police, no intelligence team, no counter terrorism unit, could infiltrate them.

The lessons taught by these brothers will be taken to heart by other would be terrorists. The lesson we must learn is not to let fear rule our lives.

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Azerbaijan & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next week the foreign minister of Azerbaijan will visit Israel for 3 full days. This is a significant diplomatic event on many levels.

It is significant in that Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation. 95% of Azerbaijan is Muslim. Of that 95%, 85% are Shiites and 15% are Sunnis. Azerbaijan has the second largest population of Shiite Muslims after Iran. They have more Shiite Muslims than Iraq.
Another positive, significant element is that Azerbaijan is the 20th largest producer of oil in the world. The country is in the top 10 in untapped reserves.

Until now Israel and Azerbaijan have had a wonderful relationship, albeit at a relatively low level. There is great potential here. The mutual benefits and exchanges that can emerge from this relationship can and should extend to economic, technological and military arenas.

I have saved the best for last. The most significant element of the visit is this: Azerbaijan borders Iran's northern limits. Israel has on several occasions run air force maneuvers in Azerbaijan. And a significant part of the native language spoken in northern Iran is - Azerbaijani.

Azerbaijan has access to Iran the likes of which no other country has.

Imagine: one of Israel's up and coming friends is a Shiite Muslim country. That is revolutionary. And it is very useful.

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Iran Condemns Boston Bombs But...
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Grand Leader The Ayatollah Khamenei condemned the terror attack in Boston. He said that Islam rejects the murder of innocent people and children. But he also condemned what he referred to as hypocrisy of America.

Look at the statements Khamenei made yesterday to a convention of army commanders and Basij leader. These quotes are from FARS, an official Iranian news service.

"In compliance with the logic of Islam, the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes and condemns any kind of explosion and killing of innocent people no matter it takes place in the United States' Boston or in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria."

"The attitude of America and others who allege to be supporters of human rights towards the killing of innocent people is contradictory and we, thus, believe that the United States and the front standing against the Islamic Republic of Iran are irrational."

"What kind of logic is this that if children and women in Afghanistan and Pakistan are killed by Americans and if the terrorists supported by the US, the West and the Zionists cause catastrophes in Iraq and Syria, it wouldn't matter, but if a blast takes place in the US or a western country, then the whole world should pay the price for it."

Khamenei's biting critique of the US and it policies explains, in part, why Iran and her allies believe that the United States and the West is misunderstanding Iran and the rest of the world.

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Boston Bombs
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As time passes more and more information will emerge about the Boston twin bombings.

There are several important points that need to be mentioned, information that will help analysts as they study this terror attack.

The placing of the bombs shows great knowledge of the Boston Marathon. There is no doubt that the perpetrators had internal local knowledge of the marathon:

Whoever placed the bombs knew that people come to see their loved ones cross the finish line and thousands revolve in and out after the actual marathon winners, often non-Americans, cross the finish line.

Whoever placed the bombs knew that backpacks and food bags would be scattered and strewn all over the ground and go unnoticed and unreported.

The second bomb would have been even more devastating had it been placed closer to the first and delayed by another 30 seconds. More people would have been targeted - those already in the area and those who rushed in to help.

The explosions were very small. The bombs were very rudimentary. The small flash explosion and the plume of smoke told the story of a small amateur bomb.

We have to look at this attack with a more global eye. This bombing is similar to Middle East bomb attacks. But one can find the recipes on line - it does not mean that the bomber/s were from the Middle East.

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Turkey Convicts Pianist
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey tried, convicted and sentenced a world class concert pianist named Fazel Say to 10 months in prison. His crime was tweeting.
Actually, it was what he said in his tweets. His tweets were disrespectful to Islam.

The pianist, who has played with symphonies around the world including NYC, poked fun at the Muslim call to prayer. The call is only 22 seconds long. Say suggested that maybe the Muslim men were running to their mistresses or running to grab a Raki, a type of licorice alcoholic drink.

This all takes place in the supposedly democratic state of Turkey. And this is not the first time where people in Turkey who challenge or make fun of established tradition are imprisoned.

As Westerners we must remember that even the most democratic of Muslim states - like Turkey, is still a Muslim state.

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Israel @ 65
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is celebrating 65 years of independence. Sixty-five years ago not even the greatest idealists, the most fervent Zionists, could have imagined the State of Israel as it is today.

Technology, medicine, bio tech, food, music, drama, poetry, film. There is almost no field in which Israel has not had a profound impact or made a generous, vital contribution.

In 1948 the Jewish population of Israel was 600,000. Today, in 2013, the Jewish population is 6,042,000. The total population of Israel today is over 8 million people, There are 1,658,000 Arabs living in Israel, about 20% of the total.

Six million is a special number for the Jewish people. The juxtaposition of the 6 million Jews who died in the Holocaust with the six million Jews now living in Israel is enormously important.
It is a watershed.

It can be said that it has taken 65 years to catch up to the loss of Jewish lives at the hands of the Nazis and their mass murder machine. There were many who thought it impossible. But miracles do happen.

Israel at 65 is the proof.

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Fayyad Resigns As PA PM
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Salam Fayyad resigned. Fayyad was prime minister of the Palestinian Authority since June 2007.

Fayyad's departure will be a blow - it will affect almost everything PA related.

Salam Fayyad was the force behind economic growth and planning in the PA. Actually, when Yasser Arafat originally brought him in to manage the finance ministry, Fayyad reformed the entire civil service insisting on direct deposit. Before that Arafat used to pay people by doling out cash filled envelopes.

Fayyad resigned because the tensions between his vision and Abbas' vision were just too great, too untenable, to breach.

The relationship between Abbas and Fayyad came full circle. Abbas originally appointed Fayyad to the position of prime minister after Hamas leader Ismail Hayyineh was duly elected by the people in 2007. Abbas could not possibly tolerate having a Hamas leader as PM so he appointed Fayyad instead.

That move caused Hamas to secede and then respond by ousting the PA from Gaza in a coup. Ever since then, Fayyad's presence has been one of the most critical objections Hamas has had in uniting with the Palestinian Authority.

Salam Fayyad was THE address for all Western diplomats. He was a major voice for moderation and Western influence. Now that voice and that moderating presence is gone.

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Hamas Attempts to Kidnap Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security services, just announced that since the start of 2013 there have been 33 attempted kidnappings of Israeli soldiers.

That is huge.

According to the report, there were only 24 attempts to kidnap soldiers during all of 2012. The reason the Shin Bet gives for this rise in attempts to kidnap soldiers is that, in the eyes of the kidnappers and of the enemies of Israel, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit was a resounding success.

Hamas and others saw the Shalit kidnapping as a vehicle through which they could exploit Israel and free many of the prisoners serving time in Israeli jails for crimes committed in Israel and against Israelis.

For Hamas, kidnapping Israeli soldiers is a weapon more effective than any other - more effective even than rockets and terrorist attacks. With a successful kidnapping Hamas brings the entire "Zionist nation" to its knees. Hamas feels that with a kidnapping they are able to ask Israel for almost anything.

So, just as Hamas has intensified its efforts to kidnap Israelis, Israelis have increased their defenses to protect their soldiers and uncover these terror cells.

Thankfully, so far, Israel has been more effective than Hamas.

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US Sees A Window That Does Not Exist
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US President Barack Obama met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon yesterday. Ban Ki Moon said that he had hoped that the Middle East peace process would get momentum from the trip President Obama took to the region.

Obama said that there is a "window of opportunity for peace."

Use of the term "window" is, by now, a cliche.

For years the Obama administration, and almost every other Western leader and their administration, shouted about the dire need to find a resolution in the Middle East before the "window" of opportunity closes.

But it has not closed. The entire metaphor is wrong.

The sides - Israel and the Palestinians - are not prepared for peace. You cannot push and prod them into peace. That said, it would, at the very least, be nice to have them sit down at a negotiating table. This week, Israel was asked to take steps that would encourage and entice the Palestinians to come to the table.
Israel responded: "Absolutely no!"

But now the Israelis have said that they are stopping settlement construction. Will that bring the Palestinians to the table?

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Qatar Gives Egypt Another $3 Bill
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Qatar just promised to give Egypt another $3 billion. That is on top of the $5 billion that they already gave. Libya also promised to give $2 billion in support.

Egypt is in bad need of cash.

The Egyptian economy is failing. The IMF is in negotiations with Egypt about creating important economic guidelines in order to make them eligible for an IMF loan of $4.8 billion. The economy cannot grow without the money. They need it to create new industry, new jobs and to stimulate new investments.

But despite the effort to help them, Egyptians harbor real resentment toward the IMF and toward the demands they are making in order to receive the loan. Egypt does not want to put the safeguards and processes that the IMF is suggesting into place. And the Islamic parties do want Egypt to take a loan outside of Sharia, Islamic law.

The money from Qatar and Libya is critical, Egypt needs a back up in case, in the end, they do not receive the IMF money.

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Bahrain Calls Hezbollah Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain has just declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization. This is a huge statement.

Bahrain is now the first Arab country to call Hezbollah what it is. More Arab countries will soon join the club.

The story behind the declaration is this: Hezbollah is Shiite and Bahraini leadership is Sunni. Over the past two years there have been ongoing protests and almost a popular revolt in Bahrain by the 70% Shiite majority population against their Sunni minority rulers.
Hezbollah has been training the Bahrain fighters in urban terror tactics.

It has always been clear to the many Sunnis in the Arab world that Hezbollah was a terrorist group but it did not matter when they were attacking Israel. Now the Shiite terror group is fomenting unrest in a Sunni country. And Sunni nations are going to be up in arms about that.

There is only one Shiite controlled nation in the world right now. That nation is Iran. The inner division within Islam is going to emerge as a way of isolating both Hezbollah and Iran.

This announcement by Bahrain has several beneficiaries. It is good for Israel and it is good for the West and it is good for everyone else - except Hezbollah and Iran, of course.

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What a Mess in The Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Direct talks between Israel and Turkey about diplomatic relations have been rescheduled for April 22.

Rumors abound as to why the meeting, originally scheduled for this week, has been postponed. Most plausible is that Turkey is still peeved and is not willing to bury the hatchet.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is finishing up the Israeli/Palestinian leg of a MidEast trip that began in Turkey. This first official trip to the region has been filled with bold fresh blasts of reality.

All in all, Kerry's impressions of this trip can be summed up by his comments to Israel's President Shimon Peres. The quote went something like this: "peace is not easy, but possible."

"I would say to everyone that I have no illusions about the difficulties; we've seen them. But you have to believe in the possibilities to be able to get there. You and I believe in them and I'm convinced there is a road ahead."

In literature that is called an understatement. But this is diplomacy.

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Cyber Attack Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

OpIsrael began a few hours ago. Going by the name, one would imagine that OpIsrael is one of those programs through which people learn about the wonderful contributions Israel has made to the world. Or perhaps it could be a project of the Jewish Agency to activate Diaspora Jews and connect them to Israel. It is not.
OPIsrael is short for Operation Israel.

It is an operation that began on April 7 and was organized by the computer hacking group Anonymous. The hackers began attacking Israel on the evening of April 7.

Cyber defense experts say that OpIsrael is not a serious threat to the state. Thus far, the attacks have been very light. The cyber people in Israel say that they are always prepared and that the real, serious attack that they fear will not be announced on forums and chat rooms.

The suggestion is that Anonymous just does not have the skills and the power to seriously threaten Israel. This attack will be a minor inconvenience. It is one of many. There are 10's of thousands of attacks against Israeli websites every day.

Thankfully, OpIsrael is a failure.

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Egypt Shouts No to Shia
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The West has so little understanding of the Islamic world that they do not realize the enormous enmity and visceral hatred that exists between Islamic groups.

Egyptians hate Iranians. They hate Iranians because Sunnis hate Shiites. Simple and straight forward. Egyptians are Sunnis and Iranians are Shiites.

Egyptian society is very upset with their new president because it appears that Morsi may be on the verge of normalizing diplomatic relations with Iran. Commercial air flights between the two countries have just begun. Flights mean tourists. And the way Egyptians see it, the arrival of Iranian tourists in their country signals the beginning of an Iranian effort to convert Sunni Egyptians over to Shia Islam.

There have been violent protests outside the Iranian diplomatic presence in Cairo. Videos show graffiti being sprayed and rocks and fire bombs being thrown.

People are heard shouting slogans similar to the written graffiti.
Protesters cried out: "Jihad against Shiites and Hezbollah" --- "Morsi, you promised us Sharia, not Shia" --- "Muslim Brotherhood sold us to Iran."

These are powerful expressions. And the word play between "Sharia" which means Islamic law and "Shia" is a very good pun in Arabic.
The words sound very similar but they are very different. Shia means follower, in this case a follower of Ali, son in law of Mohammed. Shariah means legislation, that is, the law as decided by Imams spiritual/leaders/scholars.

This is actually the essence of the tension between the two forms of Islam. It is an argument over Mohammed's successor. Shia believed that Ali was divinely chosen. Sunnis, from the word Sunna, means tradition/teachings (of Mohammed) and Sunnis believe that the Imams chose the best leader.

This is just another example of the internal divisions and serious conflicts in the new Middle East. It is complicated. But it behooves the West to make the effort to understand what is truly going on in the world of Islam.

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Syria and Weapons Imports
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syria sent a very public message to its neighbor, Jordan, yesterday. The clear and unambiguous message was butt out - or else.

The announcement was printed as a front page editorial on the most read newspaper in Syria, the newspaper which is an official mouthpiece of Assad. The message was also declared on Syrian radio.
Jordan has permitted the CIA and other similar groups/agencies to train rebels in Jordan and then send them back over the border to fight the Syrian regime. Turkey has been doing this also, but from the very start Turkey proclaimed its opposition to Assad and support of the rebels. Not so Jordan. Jordan was trying to stay neutral and that is not an easy task.

Over on the other side, according to a report released yesterday,
Hezbollah troops are being trained in Iran and then flown back into Syria to help support Assad.
Each side is training.

And then a major mystery emerged yesterday when the Egyptians stopped and commandeered a ship with 63,000 arms on it, not including ammunition. The vessel was not flying a flag, but information has been leaked out of Egypt suggesting that it may have been registered in Togo. No one knows where it was going.

Most probably the ship carried weapons from Iran going to support Assad in Syria. But they could also have been weapons from Qatar going to the aid of the rebels in Syrian. The last possibility - and no one idea is less plausible than the others - is that the weapons were destined for either Hamas in Gaza or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

More details will, I am sure, surface soon.

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Jon Stewart Attacks Morsi
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Jon Stewart has taken Egypt and the new government under Morsi to task for arresting Egyptian TV comedian Bassam Youssef.

Youssef was arrested for insulting Islam and insulting President Morsi.

Stewart presented two excoriating pieces about Morsi about Egyptian democracy and about a duplicitous speech delivered by Morsi who, on the one hand, insults religion and, on the other hand, says religion should be respected and he respects all those who criticize him.

The Freedom and Justice Party - which is part of the Muslim Brotherhood - took to Twitter and defended themselves against Stewart and his attacks. Their intention was to call the US media hypocritical, to say that the media is really controlled by Jews like Jon Stewart.

What happened instead was that their Twitter feed became a link to a montage of rambling pieces mostly from al Jazeera. All of it was archival material and there was no real substance.

Stewart's attack against Morsi was brutal. He showed how Morsi explicitly promised to protect people like Youssef in an interview he gave to Wolf Blitzer on CNN. Blitzer specifically used several names including that of Youssef and the response by Morsi was: "they are my brothers" therefore they have nothing to fear.

One of the strongest lines delivered by Stewart was when he leaned forward, as if to say to Morsi directly, "when you are strong you do not have to be petty."

Unfortunately, we are now seeing just how petty new Arab leadership is. Dissent, any form of dissent, is simply not tolerated.

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Iran Exports Oil to China
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

China has been buying Iranian oil regularly - despite the international sanctions. China needs the oil and Iran needs the market.

Until now, Iran shipped the oil to China using their own Iranian tankers. This was done because since July 1 2012, when European sanctions were added to the US sanctions, insurance companies refused to cover any tanker transporting Iranian oil.

This week China sent its own tankers to Iran to fill up with crude and transport the oil back. Back in China the oil will be delivered to local refineries and flow into local markets throughout the country.

The fact that China is now no longer relying on the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) is a monumental shift in policy. It means that China is willing to underwrite the cost of any potential spill, kidnapping of the ship and/or a sinking. It means that the Chinese are thinking seriously about the long term and their oil acquisition from Iran.

China and Iran are linked. They need one another.

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Hamas Leaders Meet in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyah and Khaled Mashaal have met in Cairo.

Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah came over from Gaza and Politburo Chief Khaled Mashaal arrived from Qatar which is where he is now headquartered.

There are several reasons for meeting.

The most important part of their get together is to strategize a way to smooth over differences with Egypt. Hamas has been at a disadvantage ever since Egypt closed the tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt Hamas has suffered. They no longer have the freedom of movement the tunnels offered them.

Mashaal and Haniyah must also decide if they should continue to try to reconcile with the Palestinian Authority. So far, all attempts at reconciliation have failed.

There is no doubt that they will also discuss Israel. And there is no doubt that about Israel the two Hamas leaders will be in 100% agreement. Condemn, just condemn.

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Timbuktu Under Attack
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, al Qaeda fighters are trying to enter Timbuktu. The Mali army is repels al Qaeda, but even if the fighting temporarily dies down the conflict will continue for a long time.

Al Qaeda wants to control Timbuktu. Making the situation even more problematic is the fact that Timbuktu is controlled by the Mali government which is not Islamist. Timbuktu is controlled by Colonel Mamadou Mangara.

For centuries Timbuktu was the center of Islamic culture and learning. It is the repository for the greatest Islamic rare book library and manuscripts in the world. It was the seat of one of the greatest educational powers in Islamic history. The idea that it would be controlled by non radical, non al Qaeda type leadership is repugnant.

The government in Mali is a semi-democracy formed after two military coups that took place in 2012. The city has a population of about 54,000 people. But to al Qaeda the importance of controlling Timbuktu is not about numbers. It is about history.

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Gas Flows in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Gas is flowing.

Tamar, one of several Mediterranean natural gas fields, is now open and flowing to Israel. It took a long time and a lot of money, but this is the start of Israel becoming energy independent. That is a monumental event.

When the project began, many people thought it was a pipe dream - and now a huge deposit of natural gas is flowing underwater to Israel.

Tamar is located about 56 miles off the coast of Haifa. The drilling went down 3 miles below sea level. It takes 30 hours for the gas to travel from the field to Ashdod where it will be processed and then sold.

The hope is that Israel will become totally energy independent by 2035. That will happen when this field, Tamar, together with other fields like Leviathan which is scheduled to open soon begin producing more and more gas.

The kicker is that Israel will become an exporter, a supplier of world gas - not simply a consumer. That will change the balance of power in the Middle East. It will change the balance of power in the world.

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1 Yr Prison for Facebook Pic in PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A Palestinian Authority court in the West Bank has sentenced a journalist to one year in prison. It happened just yesterday

His crime was posting a picture on his own facebook page. The picture was a depiction of Abbas as a traitor.

Over the past few months human rights groups have lodged a series of complaints against Abbas for the way in which he is cracking down on civil rights in the West Bank.

Most often the people targeted by Abbas have been Hamas members. I agree that Hamas must be reigned in, especially in the West Bank, in order to control, rule and protect the Palestinian Authority. But this case is about a facebook picture.

A free and critical internet is part and parcel of the new media.
PA leadership must make a distinction between serious threats to their power and frivolous exercises in free speech. Once they accomplish that, they can focus on the real threats and not waste their time on facebook pictures or gratuitous tweets.

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Egypt May Fail
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Three divers were arrested as they were trying to cut Egypt's underwater internet cable.

The cable enables access to the internet for the entire country. The Egyptian Navy discovered the divers and apprehended them.
There is no better portal to the outside world than the internet.

But that doesn't sit well with many Egyptians. These people believe that if the cable was cut, people would be focusing on important issues of Islam and not distracted by the sins and horrors of the internet.

A major part of Egypt does not want Egyptians to be corrupted by influences from the outside world.

President Morsi and the ruling Muslim Brotherhood party agree with this principle and yet, the navy prevented the cable from being severed.

This incident underscores the tension between Egyptian leaders and the armed forces. This incident is another glaring example underscoring how there is no real leadership in Egypt right now.

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Golan is Safe
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As I have mentioned before, the Syrian side of the Golan Heights is
up for grabs.

Over the past week there have been several strikes from Syria into Israel. Rockets from Syria have landed in Israel and Israel has returned fire

One very strong possible scenario is that Israel will enter Syria in order to secure certain areas - especially if either Hezbollah or al Qaeda takes control of those areas near the Israel border.

Given the rockets and the threats it is only natural that Israelis fear that they may be a risk of war.

In response to the enveloping fear Army Chief of Staff Benny Ganz issued a calming statement. He said: "We can and should visit the Golan Heights - it is peaceful, safe and beautiful. We mustn't disrupt the routine of our lives due to this or that incident."

Ganz is delivering multiple messages with that statement. One message is clear. The army chief of staff does not foresee the region becoming a warzone during Passover. He knows that there are increased tensions on that border, but in his estimation, that is far from an unstable, unsafe situation,

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Prisoner X -- What Really Happened
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The real story of prisoner X will emerge over time. Some of the pieces have already started to fall into place.

Allen Zygier was arrested and imprisoned in Israel. He was actually placed in the cell built for Yigal Amir, the infamous assassin of
Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin. Cameras recorded his every move 24/7, and yet, he successfully hung himself using his bed sheet.
Why did a young Australian Jew, a father of 2 young children (one of them a new born) commit suicide?

Allen Zygier was a Mossad agent. The walls were collapsing around him. He had been in the field in Europe, principally in Italy, and he was not delivering. So he was brought back to Israel and reassigned to Tzameret.

Tzameret is the division within the Mossad that gathers and sifts through material collected from the field. It is a desk job. Zygier did not take well to being benched.

And here is where things got out of hand. On his own, Allen Zygier decided to prove himself. He decided to get back into the field by finding informants. He went in search of Hezbollah informants and found them. In order to convince the informants that he was who he was, he proved that he was a Mossad agent. And then he gave his informants the identities of two other Mossad informants who were then captured by Hezbollah.

The people Zygier was trying to recruit double crossed him. They used him and gained extremely sensitive information from him. The
Mossad was unaware of the extent of the damage. They only found out only as when they disciplined Zygier for stepping out of bounds.
Zygier then spilled the entire story and the Mossad realized that his naive attempt to curry favor cost them both an operation and an informant in Lebanon.

Actually, Zygier was willing duped into giving over information to Hezbollah. The shame and the magnitude of the crisis he caused were overwhelming. It is assumed that Allen Zygier could no longer live with the knowledge that he was tricked into betraying his dream and his home. And so he ended it all.

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PA Hid A Monument from Obama
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Every now and then PMW, Palestinian Media Watch, unveils a gem of an issue that no other media outlet even comes close to finding.
PMW is the watch dog of Palestinian media, headed by an American/Israeli named Itamar Marcus.

Yesterday PMW released a story explaining that during the Obama trip to the area, the PA removed an offensive monument in Bethlehem. It is a monument that President Obama would have found to be a real shocker.

In words and in picture, the monument tells of the total destruction of Israel and the start of a revolution. It shows a map of Palestine without Israel, glorifies terror and embraces the total annihilation of Israel replacing it with a Palestinian State.

There is more than one of these monuments, all strategically placed around the PA. The Bethlehem monument was the only one that would have crossed paths with the president of the United States.

Which proverb works best here? Is it one picture is worth a thousand words. Or is it actions speak louder than words.

Kudos to PMW for uncovering this subterfuge. It was an act carefully and purposefully orchestrated by Palestinian leadership.

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Why Israel Apologized to Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There has been much debate as to whether Israel should have apologized to Turkey for the 2010 raid of the flotilla en route Gaza that resulted in the deaths of nine Turks.

This is not a question of right and wrong. It was.
Now it is a question of security.

Israel was legally and morally justified in preventing the ship from reaching Gaza. They were right in boarding the ship. They were justified in protecting themselves.

So why was apologizing correct?

Because the apology is about improving Israel's safety, not about being diplomatically correct or legally right.

When there is tension between Israel and Turkey the door is open to potential threats. An apology closes that door. The United States - Turkey - Israel link is now reconnected. And the threat of fallout from Syria can be better defended.

The spillover of Islamic extremism, especially al Qaeda extremism emanating out of Syria is very real and it is very difficult to confront. Having Turkey as an ally will make Israel’s defense more effective.

Admittedly, the calculus puts aside the past and the question of who was right. But it focuses on the present and the future and that is far more important - and that is why Prime Minister Netanyahu did what he did and said what he said. He made the right move.

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Israel Apologizes to Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Turkey have reconciled. Netanyahu called Erdogan and apologized - and the apology was accepted. Erdogan responded saying that Turkey and Israel will now normalize relations.

Turkey and Israel have been in crisis since May 31, 2010 when Israelis commandos boarded a Turkish ship which was part of a flotilla en route to Gaza. Nine people on board the ship were killed.

It seems that President Obama made it all happen. At his final press conference in Israel, at the airport, as he was leaving, the US president said that the United States values the friendship it has with its allies Turkey and Israel.

Obama probably convinced Netanyahu to apologize, then called Erdogan, prepped him, and put Bibi on the phone.

Until now Israel official said that they "regretted" what happened on the flotilla ship, but never apologized. Israel offered to pay compensation but that was not enough. Turkey needed that word. They needed an apology. Once done, it has all gone back to normal. And now Turkey is willing to accept the compensation that Netanyahu had originally offered.

Why was an apology so significant --- pride. It was about Turkish national pride.

And in the interest of regional stability --- Israel can now afford to apologize.


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Obama Speech in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There is little doubt that the Obama trip to Israel has been a raging success. Israelis feel that the US president finally "gets Israel." They're right. But my point is that Obama always got it.

This is just a change in tone style.

During the first four years of the Obama administration one might think that Barack Obama did not understand Israel. He did.

During the first four years of his administration Obama was treating Israel to tough love. Now he is trying a different tactic.

This change in style makes the interaction between the leaders of the United States and Israel - and by extension their citizens - much more pleasant. While the past four years were filled with angst and frustration now the interaction is convivial and both Israelis and friends of Israel feel better about that change.

But there is no change in message.

And that's an important distinction.

Look at this quote from the famous speech delivered by Obama yesterday --- "It is not just when settler violence against Palestinians goes unpunished."

Hundreds of settlers are in prison for violence and for plotting against Palestinians. So are hundreds of soldiers. But there is not one single Palestinian in a Palestinian jail for violence or terror against Jews.

The Obama speech at Binyanei HaUma was populist. Obama tried to create a division between the masses and the Knesset elite. His aim was to sidestep those duly elected to power. He wants the masses to tell the leaders to take risks.

The overall tone of the Obama trip to Israel is romantic. His goal was to get the Israelis to join his team. And in that, he is succeeding. During the first four years of his presidency Obama dangled the proverbial stick in front of Israel. That did not have the desired impact. Now he is dangling the carrot.

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Obama Quotes Yoni Netanyahu
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama has been very successful during the first leg of his Middle East trip.

He has been charming and convincing. He is extremely gifted and knows how to show empathy, making people feel that he really cares about them.

In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Obama quoted Yoni Netanyahu - the brother of the prime minister who died in Operation Entebbe saving Israelis and other Jews hijacked and held under the reign of Idi Amin in Uganda.

The president said: "On Friday I will visit Mount Herzl, among the fallen buried there is Yoni Netanyahu." He continued by quoting Yoni, "Don't forget that strength, justice and staunch resolution are on our side."

Theodor Herzl, the founder of modern Zionism, is a hero for Israelis. So, too, is Yoni Netanyahu. Yoni was a modern day David, a role model for his brother and for almost every Zionist living anywhere in the world.

Herzl is buried twenty yards away from Yoni. I wonder if Obama will wander over and pay tribute at that grave as well. I wonder if anyone has told Barack Obama about Herzl. I hope so.

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Riots Against Christians Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Again, a mass riot against Christians in Egypt.
Hundreds of Muslims in the south of Egypt ran and rioted yesterday. They destroyed Christian shops. They tried to destroy both large churches in town of Ban Suef.

It all started because of rumors that a Muslim girl was kidnapped by Christians who then converted her. But there is no evidence - and the young woman has not been found. The young woman in question was last seen leaving her home with a passport, gold and a Muslim male friend. She is college age and probably left the country.

The local prosecutor clearly suggests that there is no link to this or any other Christian kidnappings of Muslims. But truth and facts are less powerful than rumor and traditional hatred.

Two sets of rumors stoke the fire that sets off these riots:
# 1: the fear that young girls are being forcibly converted by Christians
# 2: the building of new churches and the renovation and add-ons to older churches

Egyptian Muslims have no incentive to stop killing Egyptian Christians. Expect more rioting, more violence, more anarchy.

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Obama Billboard Defaced in Bethlehem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama is scheduled to touch down in Israel at 12 noon on Wednesday.

The planning for a Presidential visit is enormous as is the security.
On Friday at 12:30 President Obama is scheduled to visit Bethlehem.

This will be his second foray into the Palestinian Authority, first will be the day before on Thursday.

It has become more and more evident that the people in the PA are not welcoming Obama. A huge billboard with Obama's picture was put up in Manger Square next to the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. The huge sign was ripped down and defaced yesterday - with a swastika.

I am certain that all of Bethlehem does not feel the same way as those who tore down and defaced the sign, but we have not heard from those Palestinians.

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Egypt Is Teetering on Collapse
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There were brutal lynchings in Egypt yesterday.

Two men were caught stealing a motorized rickshaw. They were dragged to the public square which houses an open air bus station.
They were beaten, stripped and hung upside down.

3,000 people watched. 3,000 people shouted "kill them, kill them." They were killed - but only after they were beaten, stripped and hung upside down.

Witnesses describe and pictures depict a gruesome act of vigilantism.

Last week the Egyptian interior ministry called on the public to make citizens arrests because the police were on strike and law and order was turning to chaos. But vigilantism is almost worse than the chaos.

There is no real sense of safety on the streets of Egypt. There is no justice.

Egypt is teetering, it seems to be on the verge of total collapse.
The rise of Muslim Brotherhood militias will push the anarchy to a new low.

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Iran Puts Destroyer in the Caspian
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranians have just placed a naval destroyer in the Caspian Sea.

This is significant for several reasons.
# 1: The Caspian Sea is landlocked. It is sometimes called the largest lake in the world. (Despite the fact that it is salt water)
# 2: The Caspian is filled with oil reserves. And along with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and of course Russia, Iran is drilling very aggressively there.
# 3: There is no treaty and no agreement as to who controls what in the Caspian.
# 4; There is very little military presence in the Caspian, certainly not on the level of a heavy naval destroyer.

The world has paid little attention to the Caspian Sea in discussions of Iran's oil, always assuming that it is a sealed and controlled area. But much of Iranian oil exports have been from that region for that very reason. From the looks of things Iran is going to pick up oil exports from the Caspian Sea.

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Bibi Forms Coalition
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Netanyahu coalition was finally agreed upon and all the parties that are "in" have signed.

On Saturday night, immediately after Shabbat concludes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will bring his coalition list and the accompanying agreements to Israeli President Shimon Peres who will accept it and the government will be sworn in.

This will all happen only minutes shy of the deadline. Had the potential coalition members not reached a compromise President Peres would have had to enlist someone other than Netanyahu to form a government and create a coalition. That's the law.

The government needs to have at least 60 seats, half of the 120 members in the Knesset.

This government has 68 seats.
Likud-Beteynu - 31
Yesh Atid - 19
Bayit Haeyhudi - 12
Hatuah - 6

It is a small government composed of 4 parties. And Netanyahu gave up quite a lot to the partners. In Israel, the winner actually loses. He must give away some of the most important minister portfolios to keep his coalition happy.

In this case Netanyahu is anticipating that his partner Avigdor Lieberman, the Beteynu part of Likud-Beteynu, will splinter off.

And when he does Netanyahu will still have a narrow majority. Just enough to govern.

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Obama's Israel Trip
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The US Presidential visit to Israel is fast approaching. Expectations are extremely low on many fronts. Two segments of this visit, however, have caught my attention.

The president of the United States of America will not address the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. Even Jimmy Carter addressed the Knesset. Instead, the wise men and women advising Barack Obama have told him to take the message to the Israeli people, not the politicians.

Obama will bypass the politicians who, like in every working democracy, can sometimes be pretty petty. But the Israeli Knesset represents the democracy of Israel. It is an institution. And that institution demands respect.

Not addressing the formal Knesset is an anti-democratic and a populist act. Not addressing the Knesset is an act of terrible disrespect for the election process. Obama may not like them, but the members of the Knesset are the people duly elected and chosen by Israelis to represent them and their ideals.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Presidential advance team has invited the newly crowned Miss Israel, Yitish Aynaw, more often called by her nick name Titi, to the grand gala hosted by Shimon Peres at the President's residence.

Titi hails from Ethiopia. As she put it: "Ten years ago I was walking around barefoot in Ethiopia and I never imagined that one day I would be in the Land of Israel, meeting the Israeli president and the president of the United States. I could never have imagined such a powerful and exciting situation."

Nay to politicians, Yea to beauty queens. That's the Obama presidency.

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Golan is Up For Grabs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian Golan Heights is up for grabs.

While the Syrian army can still make a play for the Heights, it seems pretty clear that they are not actively in control of much of the Syrian Golan right now. If we were unconvinced of the role the army is playing - or rather not playing in the area, the UN has given us some concrete proof.

The United Nations has made it very clear that they are thinking of pulling all their people from the Golan because of the kidnapping of 21 UN observers several days ago. Croatia saw the writing on the wall weeks ago and withdrew all their personnel.

The Golan is now being fought over by al Qaeda rebels and by Hezbollah.

This is not good news.

Whichever group gains control of the Syrian Golan Heights it will be a murderous, volatile, terror group - sitting directly on Israel's border.

Al Qaeda and Hezbollah have each expressly pledged to destroy Israel and the conflict between the forces of Assad and the Syrian rebels has provided both groups with new and more advanced weapons with which to attack Israel.

Those weapons include chemical weapons.

Unfortunately, the only thing we can do is watch carefully and wait patiently. That's not much.

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Iran May Promise No Nukes at UN
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

First it was the Iranian press, now Western press, too, is buzzing about a pseudo announcement made by Iranian Vice President Mohammed Rezza Rahimi.

The Iranian vice president is quoted as saying that in front of the United Nations, Iran will declare that they do not have ambitions to attain nuclear weapons.

This declaration is viewed as a public pronouncement of the "fatwah" the religious edict handed down in 2005 by The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei in which, it is said, he declared that it is "forbidden to produce, store, or use nuclear weapons."

Is this serious? Is Iran trustworthy?

One thing is for certain. This is another move by Iran in a much larger game.

This orchestrated move is an attempt to roll back international sanctions. It is also an attempt to reduce tensions and pull Israel and other Western countries away from the brink. The brink, in this case, is the point at which Israel and/or the West launch a pre-emptive military strike against Iran.

Now, if there is a strike against Iran, it will appear as if Israel is the aggressor.

Does Iran intend on backing away from their enrichment. The answer is a resounding no. Actually, it appears that Iran is doing exactly the opposite.

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Saudi To Stop Beheadings
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis are holding meetings. They are considered stopping beheadings - replacing them with firing squads.

In attendance at these meetings are representative of the health ministry and the interior ministry who are saying that there are just not enough trained swordsmen in Saudi Arabia anymore. And those who are trained are so over booked that they come late and that delays the execution.

Remember - quite a few crimes in Saudi Arabia warrant the death penalty.

In addition, execution is the punishment for murder and rape.
And apostasy, which means turning away from Islam, is a very big sin and that punishment is heading.

In Saudi Arabia the punishment for any form of drug infraction is death, as is the case with armed robbery.

Beheading someone takes skill and strength. Firing squads are much easier to man.

Every country faces its own demons and dilemmas.

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Iran Blocks Internet
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is blocking all access to outside internet. This is all in order to prepare for their upcoming June 14 presidential elections.

So, as of yesterday, the only sites and information that Iranians can access are ports that are legal and permitted.

All VPI's or Virtual Private Networks have been closed. A VPI is computer program software that enables a user to access the internet as if they are sitting somewhere else in the world. An Iranian in Tehran can sit, conceivably, sit on his lounge and watch Gilligan's Island on YouTube and the computer thinks he is Munich.

Now Iran has blanketed shut all ports to VPI's. They also shut Skype and Viber which are calling and internet communication software.

There are still ways around the blocks for Iranians, but it is becoming more and more difficult.

Iran wants to manage the access to all information. That is one of the key reasons why, despite their claim of a democratic election, they are truly a dictatorship, a theocracy.

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Jihadis Test Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Jihadist groups are the ones I worry about most. Their actions are especially hard to predict - and their rhetoric closely resembles their actions.

There has been a significant rise in Jihadist group activity in the Sinai desert over the past few weeks.

This is what happened today: A Jihadist group launched a rocket from a central Sinai city toward the Suez. It was a test run. They say that the rocket, with a range of 30 miles, was originally Israeli pilfered after the last conflict in Gaza. The Jihadists say that they have numerous rockets just like this one.

Israel fears that these rockets will be used against them.
The Egyptians harbor the same fear.

The Egyptians fear that the Jihadist will use these rockets to attack the police stations and military posts trying to control the spread of anarchy created by the Jihadists.

And there is no better example of that than what is happening in Sinai.

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US Reneges on Honor to Egyptian
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Today Secretary of State John Kerry and First Lady Michelle Obama were scheduled to award the International Women of Courage honors.
Samira Ibrahim, a woman from Egypt was scheduled to get the award.
The State Department and the First Lady were drawn to Samira because she was the woman who challenged the virginity tests that were applied to women who came to protest at Tahrir Square.

Had she received the award, it would have been devastating. Yesterday, finally, just in the nick of time, the State Department and the First Lady decided against giving Samira Ibrahim the award.

As early as July, in fact, in the July 18 issue of the Weekly Standard, Samuel Tadros called our attention to the twitter feeds of Ibrahim. What she says would knock any Westerners socks off- for example, she congratulated Hitler for his success in murdering Jews.

And even after the Weekly Standard piece came out, Samira Ibrahim continued her vitriol. On 9/11 2012, the anniversary of the worst terror attack in world history, she tweeted, "Today is the anniversary of 9/11. May every year come with America burning."

Then after the July terror attack in Bulgaria she tweeted, "An explosion on a bus carrying Israelis in Burgas airport in Bulgaria on the Black Sea. Today is a very sweet day with a lot of very sweet news."

And here she is quoting Hitler in August, "I have discovered with the passage of days, that no act contrary to morality, no crime against society, takes place, except with the Jews having a hand in it. Hitler."

Who vetted this decision to have Samira Ibrahim receive this prestigious award? Does standing up to the tyrants in Tahrir Square whitewash those quotes and obvious biases?

Those quotes should have automatically disqualified her for the award and it should not have taken the administration months to recant ... only hours before the awards.

There was a major snafu here. Damage was done even if the award was not presented.

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In Syria -Both Sides are Evil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Tuesday was one of those very bad days in Syria. It was a day that was extremely illustrative of what is happening on the ground and how complicated things are for Syrians.

Reading Western press coverage one get the impression that there are good guys and bad guys in Syria. Assad is bad - and he is. The rebels who oppose him are good - but they are not. There are no proverbial white hats and black hats in Syria. In Syria, they all wear black hats - or kafiyahs, if you will.

On Tuesday rebels kidnapped 21 UN international observers. They are holding them as ransom. The demands have yet to be made. This was not a mistaken kidnapping, it was a well planned and well executed operation.

On the same day, Tuesday, Assad's air force bombed the cities of Homs and Raqqa killing dozens of rebels and others and wounding countless numbers of Syrians.

What we learn from this sliver of conflict is that both sides in Syria do really evil things. Unfortunately, seldom are the rebels ever analyzed, no less covered in the media and if they are, it is only when they strike at Assad forces. Public decapitations - and there are many, are seldom ever reported.

Bashar Assad is a murderous thug ... but do not think that the alternative to Assad is any less cruel and ruthless. Mainstream, opposition rebels in Syria are, if not full blown al Qaeda operatives, at least affiliated with and in sync with al Qaeda.

The West must think hard before offering help in Syria.

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US General Says Sanctions Not Working
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

General James Mattis testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. Mattis is head of US Central Command, he is the most important US military person in the Middle East.

In brief James Mattis testified that Western diplomatic efforts and sanctions against Iran have not had the desired impact. The sanctions have not, he said, brought Iran to its knees.

Actually Iran is continuing its traditional role of denial and of obstructing international agency inspections at their nuclear facilities. And Iran continues to enrich uranium far beyond the needs of any peaceful and/or scientific demands.

Mattis did say that the United States still has the ability to bring Iran to its knees. He even suggested that the US still has several additional, untried, tools to use against Iran that do not include a full military strike.

The testimony of Mattis made it clear that Iran is using diplomacy to their own advantage. The Iranians are delaying the West from moving seriously against them thereby giving themselves permission to continue with their enrichment plans.

I hope that this was not news to the Senate committee.

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Israel Warns Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is starting to set the stage for another strike against Syria.
Over the past few days Syrian shells have fallen into Israel. Now both the Israeli representative to the UN and the Israeli prime minister have gone on the record saying that the conflict in Syrian cannot spill over into Israel.

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador the United Nations, delivered a letter to the Security Council and all 15 members. The letter describes how the conflict in Syria is resulting in rockets landing in Israel. The important part of the letter is that Israel reserves the right to respond.

From Israel's point of view, "response" is not necessarily simply a hit back at the place that launched the missile. Israel reserves the right to respond and attack the source of the conflict.

That could mean striking Assad sources or rebel bases. It gives the Israelis carte blanche to hit anywhere and anything in Syria.

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Locust Plague in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been plagued by locust over the past few days. The video is eerie, evoking images of Moses and ancient Egypt.

Swarms of black locust drop like clouds, falling on crops devouring them. They bounce off cars. It is Biblical.

Israel is concerned that Egypt is not doing enough to eradicate the locust. There is a significant danger that the locust will make their way to Israel, so Israel has begun to take precautions. Hotlines are up for anyone who sees the swarms. Major pesticides are in full stock.

But what the Israelis will inevitably do is dig huge ditches on their border with Egypt at the anticipated crossing points. The trenches must be equipped with kerosene. When the locust come, the Israelis will light the trenches.

Because locust fly low, their wings will be singed by the heat of the fire and they will fall in the ditches.

This is one problem that Egypt did not need right now.

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Kerry in the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 3, 3013

I've Been Thinking:

The new US Secretary of State is on a whirlwind trip and his focus is the Middle East.

John Kerry has an agenda. He pledged to give the Syrian rebels $60 million, but that will exclusively be in the form of food and medical aid. $60 million is a drop in the bucket and food and medicines are not what the rebels need.

The rebels were at least hoping for night vision goggles and protective armor, which they are now lobbying to get from England.

The United States cannot give material aid to the rebels even if they are vetted because the chance are just too high that all that aid will then go to al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliated groups.

Today Kerry is in Egypt trying to urge the Egyptians to conform to the IMF request to enable billions of dollars of international aid.
Kerry is also urging that they find a national consensus around which to rally and put aside their inner conflicts. And it should be no surprise that Kerry and the Egyptians spoke about Syria.

Kerry wants to prove that he and the United States can help stabilize the Middle East. But to do that, he has to be more convincing. As of now there has been no real affirmation that the Middle East has any faith in the US point of view or even wants their involvement.

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Oil Prices Fell Due To The Sequester
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Oil prices dropped yesterday.

The price of oil per barrel dropped to $90. The most significant reason for the fall is the all powerful sequester.

Because of potential cuts across the board, the entire economy is in jeopardy of a free fall. As a result - oil process dropped. Add to that the slowdown in all markets across all spectra in China and you have price changes.

The world economy is elastic, it is very responsive to changes. And oil prices are extremely responsive to US consumption.

The US is the largest consumer of oil in the world consuming 19, 150,000 barrels per day. This is far more than the EU, which is the second largest consumer, at 13 million barrels per day. All total the EU and the US compose 33% of the world's oil. This proves just how important the US economic conditions are to the global price of oil.

We heard about the sequester for weeks and not a single person spoke about consequences other than the layoffs and the cutbacks.

Oil. Sequester. Expect a huge global impact.

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Talks w/ Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between the six Western countries and Iran have finished and Iran is satisfied. These were the first real discussions since June and they took place in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

To quote Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili: the Westerns tried to "get closer to our viewpoint."

The West offered Iran an easing of sanctions if they stop enriching uranium at Fordo. From reports, the message from the West was less strident but it was the same message: Stop enriching uranium.

Iran has said that they are willing to talk and negotiate. And they agreed to another meeting in April. But Iran said that talks and negotiations are not capitulations - talks do not mean that Iran must agree with everything the West demands.

So Saeed Jalilli was pleased and intimated that there was real hope. But hope for Iran is a softening of the West's position. It is a major softening in terms of rhetoric.

Iran is correct - negotiations cannot be a fait accompli. But the US should have adopted a nicer tone years ago - now is the time for firmness.

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Egypt Court Rules- Shut Gaza Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels that connect Egypt and Gaza. The case was brought before the court because last year 16 Egyptian border guards will killed by Palestinians from Gaza who came through the tunnels with weapons.

The security of Egypt is at stake. The Egyptian court would not act if the violence was only one way, if it was directed only at Israel.
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi's national security adviser Ossam Haddad has said on several occasions that Egypt cannot not permit the two-way flow of smuggled arms through the tunnels.

Ynet quotes Wael Hamdi, the lawyer that brought the case, and Judge Farid Tanaghou, who ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels.
Ynet reports "the court ruled to make it obligatory that the government destroy the tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip,"

"I filed the case because I was worried about the state of national security in my country after the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power and its unclear policies and links with Hamas" said Wael Hamdi, the lawyer who brought the case.

1.5 million people travel through the tunnels every year. There are 450 major tunnels and 750 smaller ones. Some think that there are as many as 2000 tunnels. 1/3 of all of Gaza's imports come in through the tunnels.

While it hurt only Israel, Egypt turned a blind eye to the tunnels.
But now Egyptians must act because these tunnels add to the lawlessness and anarchy that pervades their country.

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Nasrallah In Iran w/ Cancer
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

At this point I have no doubt that Sheik Nasrallah, the leader of

Hezbollah, departed Beirut by plane and went to Teheran.
The move was made in classic Middle East style. First, there were rumors. Then officials denied the rumors. And then came full blown press coverage explaining how he left and where he went.

As a rule, Sheik Nasrallah does not travel. When he does it is in total secret to reduce the risk of assassination. He very seldom leaves his secure home in Southern Lebanon. Leaving Lebanon and going to Iran now was a big risk, but a risk that needed taking. Nasrallah is said to be in a hospital.

Most Lebanese media coverage of the trip reported that the 52 year old leader of Hezbollah suffers from cancer - and it is getting worse. A second theory making its way around Lebanon and Syria is that Nasrallah wounded by Syrian rebel shelling and in need of Iranian medical attention.

If he has a full recuperation the entire episode will mean nothing except to show that Iran manages even the medical care their proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon.

However, if Nasrallah is hurt, or dies, or cannot fully return to his position there is the potential for real anarchy in Hezbollah.
That power vacuum will not be good for the West or for Israel.

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Will The US Keep Homuz Open?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Financial Times raised a very important issue in a piece they ran yesterday. The piece was about increased imports of oil from the Middle East, but that was not the profound part.

The Financial Times raised the following question: If the United States becomes more and more energy independent, as has been the trend and their objective, will the United States still devote and invest so many resources into keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

The United States now dedicates huge amounts of military hardware and manpower to patrol the Straits of Hormuz and make certain that they remain free and open. The Straits run between Iran and Oman and about 33% of the world's oil passes through every day.

But if the United States is no longer a large purchaser of that oil, will they still protect the Straits?

The answer to that question was not given in the piece.

But the answer is probably --- yes.

The price of oil is determined internationally. A crisis anywhere, especially in the Middle East and even more so in the Straits of Hormuz, would mean a huge spike in the price of oil for the world and especially for the United States.

It would continue to be in the best interests of the United States to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and safe in order to keep the price of oil stable.

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Ahmadinejad Admits Econ Hardships
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The other day Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an unusual and truthful comment on Iranian tv. It was picked up in the Washington Post but almost nowhere else.

Ahmadinejad said "[t]his was a very difficult year for our economy."

He went on with his assessment saying that the United States is engaged in a huge and powerful economic attack on Iran which has had an impact on Iran's economy. He said that many of the tactics the US and the Western world have applied against Iran have been unfair and certainly illegal.

Ahmadinejad then outlined his expectations for this coming year's economy saying that he anticipates growth in numerous markets. His big emphasis was on domestic production and export and self reliance. He explained that in 2013 Iran would emerge victorious against the United States in the economic war.

This admission is as revealing as it is extremely unusual. It is a signal to us that Iran was hit far more deeply than we expected.

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Iran Marches to Nuke Status
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In just a few days Iran will meet once again with Western powers to discuss the Iranian nuclear program.

One might naturally assume that in light of that looming event Iran would be on its best behavior. But no, not Iran. This weekend Iran announced that it is most certainly working to go online with nuclear technology.

The Iranians have announced a plan to open 16 new nuclear sites. They said that Busher was expected to be fully operational within the year. They also announced that they have discovered new reserves of uranium.

Originally it was thought that Iran would have to import uranium in order to service their nuclear capabilities. With this new discovery Iran will no longer be reliant on the price of uranium, they will be able to provide their own.

Iran marches forward to unchallenged nuclear capabilities.

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Al Qaeda in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Jabhat al Nusra is the most important group fighting against the ruling regime in Syria.

Founded on January 25, 2012 - only about 13 months ago - they continue to grow in ranks and have become very effective at striking regime targets. Attacks perpetrated by Jabhat al Nusra include car bombs in Damascus, bombing the TV station, suicide bombing in Aleppo, and the Taftanaz attack which was an attack against an air force base with 48 helicopters. This group has also been responsible for brutal executions in Sarqeb.

Jabhat means "the front" and Nusra means "support." It is often mis-translated as the Support Front but the full name of the group is, Jabhat al-Nusrah li-Ahl al-Sham and that means "The Front for the Support of the Syrian People." And "the front" refers to the battle front.

Jabhat al Nusra is al Qaeda. They are growing because more and more al Qaeda members are crossing into Syria to participate in the battle to oust Assad. They are also getting more and more defectors from the other anti-Assad rebel groups operating in Syria.

Those who cross into Syria to fight with them are well trained.
They bring weapons and other armaments. They swell the ranks of Jabat al Nusrah by several thousand a month.

The smaller rebel groups are purely anti-Assad. Jabat al Nusrah is Islamist. They embrace the entire al Qaeda line. But in the end, despite al Nusrah's expanding ranks, the numbers of the rebels are dropping fast.

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Christians Live in Fear
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Since the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt, the Christians there have been living in a precarious and especially dangerous situation.

And we only know half the story, because most anti-Christian attacks in Egypt go unreported.

This week Al Balad news service covered threats made to Coptic Christian religious leaders. The Coptic Christians were told to convert to Islam or die. These threats were issued in the city of Safaga, near the Red Sea. They were made by a new group called Jihad al Kufr which means "the holy war against the heretics."

In Islam, the punishment for heretics is death.

In Fayoum this week the church was attacked - twice. Last week two boys, one nine years old and the other ten years old were arrested for desecrating the Koran. They were playing on a garbage heap and in the heap there happened to be some remains of a Koran.

On a subway in Cairo Muslim in hijabs and burkahs grabbed two Coptic Christians and forcibly cut their hair. That is the third time something an incident like this has been perpetrated.

The situation is not getting better for the Christians of Egypt. Of the 85 million people who live in Egypt, 9 million are Christians.

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Saudis Behead BabySitter
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Let's begin at the end. Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador from Sri Lanka.

The move came in response to Sri Lanka pulling their ambassador in Saudi Arabia.

How did the situation get to this point?

It began in 2005 when a then 17 year old Sri Lankan babysitter was charged with smothering a four month old baby Saudi baby to death. On January 9, 2013 the babysitter was beheaded. In response to the beheading Sri Lanka announced a travel ban to Saudi Arabia on all women under 25.

Many international organizations condemned the beheading.
Saudi Arabia executes people who have violated laws that they deem fundamental to their social fabric. Drugs, robbery, adultery and more serious crimes like murder are all met with the same punishment - beheading.

The United States has made its point of view known to the Saudi government, but no country and no diplomacy will have an impact or influence on the policies of Saudi Arabia. Saudi policy is ingrained into Saudi life and is a fundamental component of Saudi legal culture.

This is Shariya -- Islamic law.

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Hagel--- Why?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I still believe that Chuck Hagel will be confirmed by the Senate. I do not think it is a wise decision. If I were advising the president, I would suggest that he find a new nominee.

The reason Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense comes down to simple math. The Democrats only need 51 members to approve the confirmation and they are a majority of 55 in the Senate.

Comments made by Hagel before an audience at Rutgers University in 2007 show just how off base he is. He suggested that the State Department is a branch of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. The ridiculousness of that comment shows just how out of line things have gotten.

If there is any genuinely pro-Arab agency in the US government it is State. And the Arabists there have good reason to be pro-Arab if for no other reason than that they must deal with the geopolitical reality. In their eyes it is a numbers game - there are some many Arabs and so many Arab countries that they must be addressed.

The State Department clearly has an anti-Israel bias, that is the way it is and that is the way it always has been. How could anyone, especially a sitting member of the armed services committee, even entertain any other idea.

The biggest kicker is that yesterday The Wall Street Journal exposed that the academic department that invited Hagel to speak at Rutgers was sponsored by Iran.


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Why Egypt Flooded the Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One of the most common questions posed to me over the weekend was - why has Egypt flooded the tunnels between Gaza and Egypt.

The answer is that Egypt has been hurt badly by weapons and by people making their way through the tunnels all in order to attack Egypt.

The reality is that now only 30% of the goods in Gaza come through the tunnels and almost all of that is illegal. Compare that to the 100% figure of only a few months ago.

This is the answer, according to Reuters, given by Essam Haddad, President Morsi's National Security Adviser, to the tunnel question: "And on the other side, we would not like to see arms smuggled through these tunnels either in or out, because we are now seeing in Sinai and we have captured actually across Egypt heavy arms that could be used in a very dangerous way."

Last week Egypt stopped two tons of explosives making their way to the tunnels en route to Gaza. The Egyptians stopped the delivery en route because once they are in Gaza the goods can be allocated for operations against Egypt.

Six months ago, in August, terrorists from Gaza attacked and killed 16 Egyptian police in the Sinai.

This week alone two sets of Israeli security teams are meeting in
Egypt to discuss mutual interests. Egypt says they will shout at Israel to open up the border even more - but they really want to hear what Israel knows about al Qaeda and other terrorists.

Terrorists almost as interested in destroying Egypt as they are in destroying Israel.

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Barbie & Ken in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while something fun happens on the world scene, something that makes me smile.

Last summer two Italians visited Israel. They went for a vacation and for the purpose of creating art.

The two were photographers, so naturally, they brought their cameras. They also brought Barbie and Ken. And then they took pictures of the dolls against the backdrop of the great sites of Israel. Tel Aviv, the Dead Sea, the Western Wall.

Those photos are now on display. They have been featured in very popular Italian fashion and art magazines and even in Vanity Fair.
What makes this an even more interesting story is that in Iran, Barbie and Ken are outlawed because they are Western influences.

They were officially banned in January of last year. And just yesterday the Iranians outlawed Buddha so that it is now illegal to sell any doll of Buddha in Iran.

Barbie was created by a Jewish woman named Ruth Handler on March 6, 1959. Handler was the co founder of Mattel. She named the doll after her daughter Barbara and then, in 1961, when Ken came along she named him after her son.

It is intriguing to see that dolls can have such an impact on the world that one country bans them while another takes pictures of them and publishes those pictures as art.


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Nasrallah Tells His Plan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Secretary General of the Hezbollah Sheik Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech from an undisclosed location. The speech was broadcast across Lebanon and Syria yesterday.

The speech was given to mark Martyrs Day and was entitle "The Road Back to Palestine."

In the most essential section of his speech Nasrallah spoke about Israeli attacks. And he described how Hezbollah is prepared for a confrontation with Israel.

Nasrallah - wily, deceptive, hateful Nasrallah - gave away a strategy.

The secretary general of Hezbollah explained that in Lebanon, they are used to power shortages but Israel will not be able to survive with a small power stoppage. Nasrallah said that they will target Israeli power sources and the entire country will buckle and fall into darkness.

Of course he is incorrect, but Nasrallah is thinking strategically.
He is trying to identify targets that will create the most pain for Israelis. Then he will try to evaluate how it is possible to effectively attack those targets.

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Syrian Insight from the Fmr PM
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The former prime minister of Syria, Riyad Hijab, appeared on Al Jazeera yesterday. Hijab offered important insight into the situation in Syria.

He stressed that the opposition will not compromise on their position that President Bashar Assad must leave.

He said that there is no way that Assad will step down from power peacefully and or his own accord.

He didn't say it in so many words, but we have a stalemate.

The most interesting point made during the interview came when Hijab asserted that Syria is actually being run by Iran.

We in the West have had a sense that the essential strategies of the regime’s battle against the rebels were decided by Iran. As a result of this interview we now know that the influence of Iran over Bashar Assad's Syria is wider and stronger than we possibly imagined.

With that information the pieces all fit into place. Now I fully understand how, against so many odds, the Assad regime has lasted so long and why it is not about to buckle anytime soon.

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Bahrain 2 Yrs of Protests
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A 16 year old boy was shot to death in Bahrain yesterday during protests marking the 2nd anniversary of the movement to challenge the monarchy.

As a result of the shooting the protests got much more violent. Movement leaders are calling for the masses to gather tomorrow at Lulu aka the Pearl Center of Manama, the capital city of Bahrain.
Lulu, as it is called, is the most recognizable symbol of Bahrain.

Two years ago, at the beginning of the protests, Lulu was the center of the protests - it was Bahrain's Tahrir Square.

At the time of the first protests police forcibly cleared Lulu and have kept it clear ever since. Calling protestors to mass there is an invitation for violence.

In the past two years the protests have not achieved much and not much has changed. Bahrain is composed of a majority of Shiites, but it is controlled by a minority Sunni leadership. It is about a 70 -30 split.

Shiites want more involvement in Bahrain society, specifically in job opportunities and in government. They have yet to find a way of achieving their goals. Increased violence is certainly not the way to go.

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Israelis Vacation in Greece
By Micah Halpern

February 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel broke its own record in 2012.

This past year, 400,000 Israelis visited Greece. When you think about it, 400,000 Israelis doing anything is impressive.

There are almost 8 million people currently live in Israel. That means that, statistically, one in every 16 Israelis visited Greece in 2012. In real terms, it probably means that some people visited Greece more than on time during the year. But the number is still very impressive.

Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni is actually on a trip to Israel to drum up even more tourism.

Israelis love to travel and they love junkets. Until recently Turkey was the pace to go. But ever since the May 31, 2010 flotilla debacle, Israelis have been reluctant to visit Turkey. As a reminder, the flotilla ship that Israel boarded was Turkish, tensions ensued, and since then Turkey has been on the warpath.

Israeli tourism to Turkey disappeared completely after the 2010 flotilla but it is now creeping up. Last year ELAL Airlines brought 270,000 Israelis to Turkey, the number for charter flights were negligible.

As much as they like to travel, Israelis like to be liked. Israelis are voting with their feet. So they are going to and spending money in Greece, the arch enemy of Turkey, instead of giving money to a country whose government is constantly, publicly, berating them.

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N Korean Nuke Test
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday North Korea conducted a nuclear test. They exploded a nuclear bomb that, according to Russian observers, was 7.5 kilotons. That makes this test a slightly larger version than their previous test explosions.

The test was met with condemnations from capital cities across the globe. But nothing more than condemnations and announcements.

Iran watches and learns from North Korea. In perfect, true-to-form Iranian style, they too condemned the North Korean test.

The North Koreans have been conducting nuclear tests since 2006 and almost nothing has happened to them because of their continued nuclear explosions and continued nuclear development.

That is precisely what Iran is counting on.

Certainly, boycotts and embargoes have been leveled against North Korea. But in general, they have been left alone.

Sounds like a plan for Iran. Last year Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak called North Korea an "ice breaking ship for Iran."

Everyone now observing the nuclear programs of both North Korea and Iran can only concur with the Barak analysis.

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Bibi Accepts 2 State Solution
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech in which he said that he believes in a two-state solution. His ideal situation, he said, is two states for two peoples.

Why is this speech so significant? Because ever since his first speech on the subject, delivered on June 14, 2009 at Bar Ilan University, people have said that they do not believe him. They think Netanyahu said what he said at Bar Ilan because of pressure from the United States.

Many people do not trust Netanyahu. His detractors say that his actions over the ensuing three years did not lend credence or in any way support a two-state solution.

To quote the prime minister: "I believe that a framework to peace is what I outlined in my speech in Bar-Ilan University - two states for two peoples: A demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes the Jewish state."

But, Netanyahu cautioned, the Palestinians must remove their preconditions.

"To reach this solution means to negotiate in good faith. That means you don't place preconditions. For the past four years the Palestinians regrettably place preconditions, time after time. My hope is that they leave them aside and get to the negotiating table."

Obviously this speech yesterday was very well timed. Barack Obama, President of the United States, is planning to arrive in Israel on March 20th - exactly 5 weeks from now.

Meanwhile, the White House has made it clear that expectations should be lowered about this trip to the Mid East.

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Negotiating w/ Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has responded to the call for renew negotiations with the West.

Iranians are in mid-celebration of the 34th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. This is a good time to comment publicly about renewing negotiations and other issues of interest. Even Syrian President Bashar Assad took the opportunity to send congratulatory wishes.

Yesterday President Ahmadinejad announced that: "We are prepared to conduct talks but not under pressure, with a gun pointed at our heads." Of course, he then also continued to announce that Iran will be victorious over all its enemies.

The argument about not negotiating "with a gun pointed" at your head resonates powerfully. In essence, Iran is saying: What kind of negotiations do they want, do they want us to just accept the point of view of the United States, that is hardly a negotiation.

The Iranians have thought this out very well. Those non- Westerners paying attention to this conflict think that Iran is being reasonable when they volunteer to enter negotiations as equals, and not simply receive dictates and jump at every demand of the US.

Unfortunately they are correct. But there is more to the story.
The US and the West are now, finally, making demands of Iran because they realize that after years of failed negotiations Iran is steadily marching toward nuclear weapons.

I will say point blank that if the United States wants to get anywhere with Iran they must adopt very different tactics.

Sanctions and dictates have not and will not work. The carrot and the stick is what works. And the most important carrot for Iran is respect.

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Egypt Bans Youtube
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt yesterday a court ruled to ban YouTube.
The logic is that on YouTube, anti-Muslim films are being circulated and - worse yet, viewed.

But despite the decision of the Egyptian court, Egypt cannot ban YouTube. They do not have the technology to ban or to block it. It is ridiculous to even think about.

YouTube is an essential vehicle for democracy movements. They film events and post videos of anti-democratic demonstrations. They post videos of police brutality. They post real time unedited tape of what is happening.

Banning YouTube in Egypt is like trying to forbid gravity from working within Egyptian borders. Whether they like it or not, it happens and there is nothing they can do about it. The best idea is to try to understand YouTube and use it for your advantage.

In and of itself, this ban tells us volumes about the attitude of Egyptian courts and leadership on modern technology and information and the dissemination of details and about the inner activities and workings in Egypt.

YouTube allows all of us "in." The leaders of Egypt do not want us to get too close and see too much. Egypt wants all of us to keep "out" of their business.

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Shame on the IDF
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remember how impressed everyone was with the Iron Dome, the anti-rocket battery system that helped keep Israel safe during last year's operation known as Pillar of Defense.

Remember how when Hamas in Gaza was lofting hundreds of rockets into Israel and the Iron Dome shot them down.

Personally, I was so impressed with the results of this defensive system that on a yearend wrap-up on Shalom TV I suggested that the Iron Dome be the "Jewish Man of the Year for 2012."

It has now become clear that the operators of the batteries that save so many Israeli lives live in sub standard conditions. Their tents are pitched in water and the water seeps in. They are sleeping in water. Their only bathrooms are port-a-johns. They do not get hot food. They have not hot water.

Shame on the IDF!

Iron Dome operators of have no base to go home to during their three years of military service. Traditionally, an IDF combat soldier returns to base and gets a hot shower and kitchen cooked hot meal after completing a mission.

Quoting from YNet: "One soldier noted that sometimes the toilets get blown away by intense winds and that food delivery is often delayed. 'How hard or expensive can it be to find a solution for us?'"

The soldiers actually describe how parents organize hot food deliveries. These soldiers are entitled to much more. They are true heroes. At the very least they should be given a toilet and hot water and provided with a cot that does not sit in water.
Shame, shame on the IDF.

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Fatwahs Against Egypt Opposition
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian TV has been broadcasting testimonials by clerics justifying the public mass rape of women in Tahrir Square.

And at least three clerics have issued Fatwahs, religious edicts, calling upon Egyptians to kill opposition leaders. Some of these clerics have also read their statements on television.

This behavior is not new for Egypt. In the 1990's Fatwahs were issued against political leadership and many leaders were then assassinated. At that time is was all a part of an Islamic uprising.
This time around the Islamists are in power and they are the ones threatening to murder their opposition.

Listen to this dialogue from Egyptian TV:
A very popular Imam named Mahmoud Shaaban described the actions of the opposition, which is called the National Salvation Front, this way: they are "setting Egypt on fire to gain power." And so: "the verdict against them under God's law is death."

Shaaban called both Muhammed ElBaradei, the former UN Arms Inspector and Noble Prize winner, and Hamdeen Sabahi, another leader of the National Salvation Front, traitors.

In a TV interview Shaaban said that "they have repeatedly spoken about toppling Morsi." Later in the program he qualified his statements saying that the government should carry out the verdict, not private citizens. But he did not go so far as to urge citizens not to participate in assassinations.

In another striking and appalling statement another very popular Imam named Wagdi Ghoneim issued a video statement pleading with Morsi to crack down on the protestors throwing stones and shoes and shouting outside his palace. He said: "The verdict under Shariah for those who seek corruption on earth is to be fought, or crucified, or have their arms or legs cut off or be exiled from earth." In other words this Imam is saying that the protestors and those who lead them should be killed.

And then he added: "Strike with an iron fist. Otherwise, the country will be lost at your hand and they'll say it is your fault. They'll say Islam doesn't know how to rule and that it's the Islamists who wrecked the country."

Shaaban, on the other hand, said: "We will kill the criminals, the thugs, the thieves and those who give them money and those who help them with words. No mercy with them."

One cleric calls for the people to act. The other calls for the president to act. They are both calling for bloodshed. That's the new Egypt.

These are very bold, very public, statements. And if anything they are incitement to violence and murder. As we have already seen - in Egypt, a Fatwah is seen as a license to kill. In this case - it is a blessed license to kill.

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Big Abbas Faux Pas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A "faux pas" is a very embarrassing misspeak.

In French it actually means a "false step" or a "misstep." It is a gaffe and normally something that you would really regret having said.

The faux pas I am about to tell you about takes place at the Islamic Conference in Cairo. The same conference Ahmadinejad is attending.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is speaking and thanking the host, the president of Egypt. In addition to thanking him for hosting the conference, Abbas also wants to thank him for supporting the UN vote which changed the status of Palestinians.
But Abbas misspoke.

Abbas thanked Mubarak instead of Morsi.

Abbas began his comments with the words "President Mohammed Hosni."
He then stopped and corrected himself saying "Mohammed Morsi."
Mubarak's first name is Hosni. In the video, Morsi was pretty pokerfaced but he did show a real sign of frustration after the gaffe.

What caused Abbas to misspeak? He will never tell. We can conjecture, but we will never know for sure.

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Egypt Up in Arms About Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been met with some serious negative receptions in Egypt.

While in a Cairo mosque, a Syrian living in Egypt tried to insult Ahmadinejad by throwing a shoe.

During a visit to Al Azhar University, a massive group of protestors swarmed around Ahmadinejad and tried to prevent his access to the university. Al Azhar University is, without a doubt, the greatest Sunni Islamic institution in the Muslim world.

The Salafis who partnered with the Muslim Brotherhood during the election but who are far more conservative than even the ruling Brotherhood Party, came out with a statement that Egypt should not normalize diplomatic relations with Shiite Iran.

There is ample Muslim law justifying the rift between the Sunnis and Shiites. This conflict is not simply about recent history. It is about basic, fundamental, differences in approach towards Islam.

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Ahmadinejad in Cairo
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Islamic world is changing.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is visiting Egypt today. He will be there until Thursday. This is the first time an Iranian head of state has come to Egypt since 1979.

Ahmadinejad will be attending an Islamic conference on Wednesday and Thursday. But first, on Tuesday, he will be meeting with Egyptian leaders. Obviously, the president of Iran will meet with Egyptian political leadership.

More importantly, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will meet the Sunni leadership of Egypt. Egyptian Muslim Sunni leadership is the most important in the entire Muslim world and it all comes out of Al Azhar University in Cairo.

Iran represents Shiite Islam and Shiite and Sunni leadership has been at odds for 1,000 years. This attempt at reconciliation is a move to bridge a gap that has separated Muslims for centuries.

They will meet. And they will agree to disagree. They will agree on their mutual hatred of the United States, of the West and of Israel. They will agree to avoid the differences which have caused them so much hatred over the past 1,000 years.

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Israeli Chief of Staff in DC
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Army Chief of Staff Benny Ganz has just begun a five day trip to Washington, DC.

This is an essential trip not only for Israel but also for the United States. The purpose of this trip is to solidify relations and continue dialogue between the countries. It is critical in terms of planning and approval.

Ganz is very comfortable in DC. He was the Israeli army liaison in DC just a few years ago. He knows the players and they know him.
Specifically, Jerusalem and Washington will talk about Syria and about Iran. Then they will cover other problems in the region.
Most importantly Ganz will be testing the waters to make certain that the US and Israel see eye to eye on certain red lines.

Obviously there are major differences in points of view. The United States wants to hear that plans can be implemented that will help and not hurt the region. Think of this as a longer version of the briefings that led to the Israeli bombing of Syria last week.

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Iran Ran A Hoax
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It was a hoax. And much of Western intelligence swallowed it hook, line and sinker. I was no exception.

Last week I reported about an explosion in Fordo, the Iranian nuclear site located deep underground.

Intel from around the world was spinning. An explosion in a seemingly impregnable site deep underground, probably by sabotage, was big news. At the time I was shocked that the United States would not comment about the explosion and that there was little to no coverage of it in US press.

Turns out, it never happened. It was all a big - and convincing, hoax cooked up by Iran.

I assume that the purpose of the hoax was to smoke out saboteurs. A good way to monitor people they have suspicions about by gauging their reactions and levels of interest. A good method for checking on international spy agencies which want to know if their people were involved and reach out for more and more details. And that's when the Iranians spring their trap.

In this case the United States and the White House were correct. They repeatedly said that they have no details and no knowledge of an explosion in Fordo. I don't say this often, but kudos to the White House for acting responsibly vis a vis Iran. At least, this time.

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Riots in Eygpt Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

For nine days there have been massive riots in Egypt. They are getting worse and more violent by the day.

The riots are demanding that Morsi step down. Dozens of Egyptians have been killed every day. The numbers of total deaths has reached over a hundred.

Police are brutal in putting down the protests. The army is waiting to see what they should do.

Protestors have tried to storm the presidential palace. They have succeeded in throwing stones and shoes and even firebombs into the compound.

Stones and firebombs are obvious. But shoes?
The throwing of shoes is a curse in Islam. The throwing of a shoe is a statement of serious rejection of a person and their ideas.

We will see what happens in the coming few days. Will the police clamp down more and will the Muslim Brotherhood take to the streets to defend their leader and confront the protestors.

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Israel Bombs Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Predictably enough, the day after Israel conducted an airstrike against a Syrian target a flurry of responses came flying.

The Syrian Electronic Army claimed to have attacked 60 Israeli websites. When the story was checked out it was discovered that only a few of the 60 sites on their list were actually down, and some were down due to internal issues. But there was great bravado on the part of the Syrian Electronic Army.

The Iranians said that Tel Aviv would pay for the Israeli air strike.

The Arab League condemned the strike.

Now - it is still unclear what was targeted in the strike.

If you believe the Syrians, a weapons factory was hit and four guards were killed. The factory was part of their poison gas program.

The United States and Israel are saying that a convoy of trucks carrying Russian made SA-17 missiles destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon was hit. For Israel and the US the rockets were a game changer and could not be allowed to reach their destination.

The truth, I assume, is probably a combination of the two. Israel probably hit both the poison gas weapons factory and the convoy. It would not have been too difficult a task to accomplish.

Syrian air force and anti-air craft batteries are now on high alert. I find that funny because there is almost no chance that Israel will strike two nights in a row. But you never know.

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Hamas Sends Message to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 31, 2013
I've Been Thinking:

Many issues are afoot.

This past week Abdullah King of Jordan met Haled Mashal, the Hamas politburo chief, in Amman.

We were told that the discussion was about Palestinian statehood. We naturally assumed that Abdullah was trying to convince Mashal to reconcile with Abbas so that the Palestinians can unite and make a state.

Well, not quite. It seems that one of the things they discussed was a way to empower Abdullah so that he becomes a mediator between Hamas and the United States.

There is more. We are now being told that Mashal asked the King of Jordan to deliver a message to President Obama informing that Hamas now accepts the idea of two states.

That information must be verified and then, if it is true, it must be publicly pronounced.

There is no question about it - if Hamas announces that they accept the idea of two states it removes one major obstacle in the path of the United States leading to direct discussions with Israel.

Of course, there are several other huge problems to be overcome before Israel and any Palestinians sit down and talk. One of the most significant is the sponsorship of terror by Hamas.

But there is no doubt that the US would look very positively on Hamas if they publicly announced their recognition of Israel within the '67 borders.

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Kerry Confirmed - Hagel in Line
By Micah Halpern

January 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate approved John Kerry as the next Secretary of State of the United States.
The vote was 94 in favor and 3 opposed.

That should be no surprise.

The big event will be Thursday when Chuck Hagel comes before the subcommittee. They will grill him. Grill him about what he said and what he thinks about Iran and about Israel and about the role of the United States.

The biggest question will be what Hagel thinks the US world view should be.

Is Hagel an isolationist? If he is might possibly nix him - the only thing that might nix his appointment.

Nothing short of that will tarnish Obama's Hagel nomination.

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Iron Dome in the North
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has repositioned one of the batteries on the supper effective anti-rocket system ... called the Iron Dome.

The Israelis moved a set of Iron Dome anti-rocket rockets to a site just outside the city of Safed.

The Iron Dome is the system that, without a doubt, saved hundreds if not thousands of lives during Operation Pillar of Defense that took place late last year. The land-to-air system locks on to incoming rockets, triangulates and then shoots. As it travels at extremely high speeds the Iron Dome re-triangulates and then destroys the incoming rockets mid-air so that they do not hit their targets.

The Iron Dome was created to combat against Hamas in Gaza and the incessant launching of rockets into Israel.

So why has an Iron Dome battery been moved all the way up north to be near the near the city if Safed?

The answer is Hezbollah. There is real fear in Israel that Hezbollah will again start to lob rockets into Israel- maybe even gas filled rockets. Repositioning the Iron Dome serves both to protect and to intimidate.

It is to let Hezbollah know that Israel will shoot down any foreign object entering their air space.

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Huge Blast in Iran Nuke Lab
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

This story has still not been covered by Western press.

Earlier last week there was a huge explosion in Fordo, the 2nd most important nuclear development site in Iran. The blast was so huge that people felt it miles away. The Teheran-Qoms highway which runs close to the site of the blast was closed for hours.

Fordo has 2,700 nuclear rods, or centrifuges. It is a serious atomic location, second only to Natanz which has 10,000 nuclear rods.
Fordo was always thought to be impregnable. It is built deep into a mountain and is totally underground. It is so deep underground that bunker buster bombs have been thought to be useless against it.

But this explosion was not spontaneous, it was not some freak accident. The report on the incident suggests that it was an act of sabotage.

That proves that saboteurs and spies can get anywhere.

When you add this act of sabotage at Fordo to the computer attacks that have been plaguing Iran and the continued accidents happening around the country you can only come to the conclusion that an anti-Iranian nuclear program is in place.

There is clearly a system set up to destroy the Iranian atomic infrastructure. And it is doing a good job of it.

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Abbas On New Is Coalition & His Demands
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The World Economic Conference in Davos just ended. Leaders have gone their separate ways, some to attend other conferences.

The African Union Summit followed Davos. It was there that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas stood up early Sunday morning and said that "the Israeli coalition's makeup might change, but the Palestinian's demands for the negotiations will not change."
Abbas made clear exactly what Palestinian demands are: "the freezing of settlement construction, releasing prisoners and solving the core issues like Jerusalem and the refugees."

The most interesting insight to emerge from the recent Israeli election and the formation of the new coalition is that the Palestinian issue is not a significant variable. In fact, it is way down the list of priorities and, for some, it is a negative issue.

Despite lip service from the White House saying that the Palestinian issue is important and lip service from the Arab world saying it is important, there has been almost no pressure on Israel or on the Palestinians to solve the problem.

That is revealing.

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Egypt 2nd Anniversary of the Revolt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Torching is a mode of communication in Egypt. In Egypt, they torch things.

Until now I have spent quite some time explaining that the Islamists of Egypt have torched Christian sites. Well, the tables have been turned.

Yesterday the Islamic Brotherhood offices in Ismailia Egypt were torched. Youths broke in and set the office on fire. And in three other cities in Egypt similar clashes occurred between the police and youths protesting the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood.

There were huge demonstrations.

In Cairo the police shot tear gas into the crowd to prevent them from storming the presidential palace.

In Alexandria a court was attacked by demonstrators shouting "Muslim Brotherhood this is the last day for you."
In Suez 4 people were killed. 186 civilians and 45 security personnel were wounded.

It all happened as the result of anti-Morsi, anti-Brotherhood, demonstrations that turned into riots. And it took place on the second anniversary of the revolt that ousted Hosni Mubarak.

What the Egyptians really need now is stability and tourism to jumpstart their economy. But there will be no tourists, no jumpstart and no stability. There will be more violence.

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Bibi & Wife Sara Vs The Coalition
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Forging a coalition is without a doubt the most difficult part of the election process in Israel.

After a long, hard fought and often ugly election battle, compromises and promises must be made in order to obtain the required 60 Knesset seats. Election planks and platforms are first weighed and then cast away in favor of the issues of power, control and of course, prestige.

Well before results were in, Netanyahu called potential coalition partners. Immediate calls went out to ultra orthodox Shas which then won 11 seats, ultra orthodox United Torah which then won 7 seats and the anti ultra orthodox Yesh Atid (There is a Future) which in the end won 19 seats immediately.

But Netanyahu did not call his natural partner, Ha Bayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home) party, a modern Zionist orthodox party which garnered 12 seats until late Thursday. And there is a simple reason for that.

Netanyahu's wife Sara did not want him to make the call. There is bad blood between the leader of The Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, and Sara Netanyahu. It goes all the way back to the time when Bennett was chief of staff in the office of the prime minister.

No doubt there has been much pressure in the Netanyahu household to avoid a connection with Bennett. Netanyahu needs to weigh the sides - the wrath of his wife or a successful coalition insuring his position as prime minister. It is not an easy decision to make.

Sarah has a strong hold on her man. But the prime ministry may be even stronger - and, despite the protestations and a clash of personalities, Bennett can only help Netanyahu.

Sara will probably lose this battle, but she will come back later with a vengeance.

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Israeli Election Surprise
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Elections in Israel are over -- finally. Now the real work begins.

The earliest and the most obvious result to come in from this election is that the polls were off, really off. If polling in general is difficult, polling Israelis is nearly impossible.
Israelis never vote for what they want.

Israelis vote to punish or to check or counter check.
Because almost no Israeli actually votes because they support a particular point of view, the swing vote is more volatile than any mathematical variable.

In the end Netanyahu's combined party of Likud - Beiteinu got 33 seats. The second largest party won 19 seats and it is the brand new party called Yesh Atid which means "there is a future". Yesh Atid is lead by brand new party head Yair Lapid, a former pro soccer player, tv talk show star and media personality. He is the son of Tommy Lapid who was an outspoken and even more popular media personality who also used his fame as a catapult into politics. His mother is one of Israel's leading authors.

Yair learned well from the father. His party ran on an anti'ultra religious platform. The most significant point it embraces is a universal draft - a direct assault on the ultra-religious and one more socially progressive policies - another assualt. He is realistic on Palestinian peace.

Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party could hold some important cards if they join the Likud - Beiteinu coalition.

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Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israelis are about to vote.

On the lighter side, one candidate's water broke and she ran to the hospital with Zippi Livni, the party head, accompanying her.

On a more serious note, and this is an issue that concerns me a lot, on the eve of the election Shas is giving out blessings and amulets in exchange for votes.

The amulets are called kamayahs.

Giving blessings in exchange for a vote is totally illegal. It is even more powerful an incentive in certain communities than paying people to vote.

The kamayahs come from Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, the spiritual leader of the Shas party and one of the undisputed greatest rabbis in the world today. So even non religious people and certainly people who are religious will vote in exchange for a kamayah that promises economic success.

Shas was fined 37000 shekels which is a out $9000.

The fine is a drop in the bucket and will have no impact.
The kamayah will most certainly have an impact on this election.

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More Riots in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Rioting has rocked Alexandria, Egypt for the past two days. The rioters burned down a court house and the police trucks that transport riot police.

These riots are taking place outside the court that is hearing the case of six policemen on trial for using excessive force in January and February of 2011. The court house is located near the Italian consulate. Without explanation, the judge trying the case stepped down yesterday.

Egypt is about to commemorate the 2nd anniversary of the rebellion that ousted Hosni Mubarak. That rebellion began on January 25 and ended when Mubarak stepped down on February 11. About 900 people were killed in the uprising, 300 in Alexandria.

Riots are also taking place in Cairo. Four people died and twelve were wounded including two police officers during the conflict with police and it still does not appear that quiet has been restored to either Alexandria or Cairo.

As we get closer and closer to January 25 and February 11 Egypt will be swept up in even more violence and even more conflict. The countdown has begun.

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Israel Elections- Hours Away
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli election is just hours away. Tensions are rising. Hatred and anger are permeating the process.

Some of the smaller parties with no chance of getting the minimum number of votes needed to attain seats in the Knesset are dropping out.

Shas leader Ovadia Yosef has proclaimed that the newly reconstituted Jewish Home party, in Hebrew called HaBayit HaYehudi, formerly called the National Religious Party, is composed of thugs and not only are they thugs but they are not even religious thugs.
And some very troubling graffiti has been scrawled in public places.

In big black letters, on the outside wall of the new break-off party called the Movement, or Hatenuah in Hebrew, someone wrote: Yigal Amir was right.

Yigal Amir is the convicted assassin of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. His stated reason for the assassination was Rabin’s desire to pursue a peace treaty with the Palestinians.

Hatenuah is a centrist left party. While it embraces a peace agenda, that is hardly the only plank in their platform. But they are likely to be one of the largest parties wanting to advance the peace process.

Any reference to violence - especially talk of assassination, must be condemned by all parties. I repeat, condemned by all parties.

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Again Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Christians are once again being attacked in Egypt.

In the province of Qena, Christian shops and the local churches were firebombed and stoned. The violence began when Muslims left their Mosques after midday Friday prayers.

The claim is that a Christian owner of one of the Christian shops molested a Muslim girl and that was what triggered the mobs to attack Christian businesses and churches and other properties.

In an unusual and nearly unprecedented act the police arrived at the scene of the massive mobs, shot tear gas into the groups to disperse the crowd and attempted to restore order.

Qena is situated halfway between the Northern cities and the resorts of the Red Sea. It is situated on the east bank of the Nile.
Despite the green beauty of the vegetation and the perfect location for travelers, Qena has been hard hit in these difficult economic times in Egypt.

Tension between the Christian minority and the Muslim majority in the region is as common as it is extremely violent. And rest assured it is not going away.

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McDonough to Be Obama Chief of Staff
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama is most likely going to appoint Denis McDonough as his 6th chief of staff. McDonough is currently the Deputy National Security Adviser.

General agreement has it that McDonough is well respected in the White House and that the President likes and trusts him a lot.

He is from Minnesota. He is one of 11 children.

After coming to DC to study for a master's degree at Georgetown University, McDonough spent his entire career on the Hill. He was aide to the House Committee on International Affairs. He was a staffer for several senators.

And in the 2008 election McDonough was one of the key foreign policy people in the Obama campaign.

To gauge just how much a part of the inner circle McDonough is, take another look at the now famous picture of the War Room during the raid on Osama bin Laden. McDonough is the one sitting right next to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

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Iran's Space Program
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is expanding its space program and is going to send a monkey into space in February. The last time they tried this, the monkey died.

Hamid Fazeli, Iran's Director of Space, said yesterday that Iran would be entering another rocket into space as part of the 34th Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Their revolution took place in 1979.

Surprisingly, Iran has a very successful space program. They have successfully launched at least three satellites. The Omid in February of 2009, Rassad in June of 2011 and Navid in February of 2012. The Iranians had planned on another launch in May.
Other than the monkey, Iran has successfully sent other animals in to space including a turtle, a rat and worms. They are plans for a human launch sometime before 2020.

I monitor the Iranian space program because the exact same capabilities needed for space launches are needed to launch nonconventional warheads.

No puns intended, the Iranians are advancing their space program at rocket speeds. Unlike their nuclear programs, their space program flies under the radar of international weapon monitors.

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IAEA Hopeful w/ Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the UN which is head quartered in Vienna, Austria has arrived in Iran.

The IAEA arrived in order to attempt to jump start their inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. The most important item on the IAEA agenda is to create a framework through which they can then approach their purpose and fulfill their mission in Iran.

Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to the press yesterday before taking off for Iran.

Nackaerts acknowledged that it is an open secret that Iran does not wish the IAEA to succeed. Still, there is a small possibility that a framework may yet be hammered out.

Iran is not against the principle of the inspections. And that is the IAEA ace in the hole.

They just don't intend for the IAEA to find anything. But that's another story.

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Hamas Closes Tunnels - Weather
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leadership in Gaza made an important announcement yesterday.
They will shut down all tunnels.

The tunnels run from Egypt into Gaza. Almost everything is brought through those tunnels except for weapons, explosives and rockets. Even trucks and livestock come into Gaza by way of tunnels.

So why did Palestinian leadership in Gaza shut down the tunnels thereby halting the import of many and necessary goods? Because the weather was endangering the goods and the lives of workers.

Too many tunnels have collapsed because of the many rains this season. The other day six workers were lost in the tunnels.

The tunnels are actually illegal in the eyes of Israel and Egypt. They are perfectly legal to the Palestinians. Legal, but now unsafe.

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Palestinans Squat in E-1
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, during the wee hours of the morning, just before sunrise - 200 Palestinians joined by foreign activists came to the area known as E-1 and started pitching tents.

E-1 is the area that received prominence immediately after the UN General Assembly decision changing Palestinian status to that of observer. It received prominence and attention because immediately after the UN vote Israel announced that it would be building in E-1. And that announcement was met with international outrage aimed at Israel.

In reality, Israel did not build in E-1 - they just announced plans.

Now Palestinians have erected a temporary outlet there.

The Israeli Supreme Court will most certainly rule that the Palestinian tents must be evacuated. There is no doubt that the outpost is a provocation.

And yet, I have heard no international outcry against the Palestinians. The international community is probably waiting for Israel to initiate the evacuation - then there will be an outrage.

The inconsistency and the irony should not be lost.

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US Sub Rams Ship in Hormuz Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It happened again yesterday. And it is extremely embarrassing.

A US nuclear submarine struck a ship in the Straits of Hormuz. No one was hurt. But the periscope of the sub was destroyed.

Evidently, the sub hit a fishing boat with its periscope. No damage was done to the civilian fishing vessel. According to an official Navy report, after the incident the fishing boat continued along unnoticed and unchanged in speed.

The statement from the 5th fleet reads "continued on a consistent course and speed offering no indication of distress or acknowledgment of a collision."

This is just one of many instances of US naval ships ramming one another and other vessels in the very narrow, very crowded, Straits of Hormuz.

It proves several important points:
The Straits are very hard to navigate.

The home team advantage goes to Iran which has much smaller subs.
For the US, even the best and most technologically proficient ships cannot be on top of one another without hitting one another.

Believe me, the Iranians are getting a good laugh about this - and it is at the expense of the United States.

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Egypt & Iran Try to Make Nice
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Egypt appear to be mending fences.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi visited Egypt yesterday. The press coverage of the visit underplayed the dramatic differences between the two countries.

The differences are gargantuan. Iran and Egypt are diametrically opposed over Syria. Religiously, one is a Shiite country and the other Sunni. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979 and then the assassination of Egyptian President Sadat there has been nothing more than a frigid cold relationship between the two nations - and it has never thawed. Iran even named a main square in Teheran after Sadat's assassin.

The Iranian Foreign Minister, a Shiite, spent some time meeting with new Egyptian President Morsi, a Sunni, and other Egyptian Sunni leaders. He met with Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb, the Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar - one of the most prestigious centers of learning in the Sunni world

The leaders attempted to put on the face of unity. President Morsi was invited to visit Iran. They emphasized their commonalities and their similar orientation.

But it is nearly impossible to unite Shiite and Sunni. It is not just about centuries old injustices. It is also about injustices that took place recently.

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Hagel is a Poor Choice
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is not happy about being in the limelight because of President Obama's decision to choose Charles Hagel, the former Republican senator from Nebraska, as his candidate for secretary of defense.

The position Israel has been thrust into is one of the most uncomfortable positions a country can be in vis a vis the United States.

The debate over Hagel has turned into a question of how critical one can be of Israel and still remain in the mainstream of politics and power in DC. Israelis cringe when the issue moves to the power of the American Jewish community and the power of the Israeli lobby.

Without meaning to, pro Hagel Israeli well wishers have started sounding like anti-Semites and anti Hagel Jews are sounding like people who see anti-Semites lurking behind every bush.

Yes, Hagel has been very critical of Israel. So has President Obama. I don't think that he should be given the position, but Charles Hagel will almost surely become the new secretary of state.

I don't think he is appropriate for the position not because of his stance on Israel. Hagel shoots form the hip, he enjoys controversy. I don't think that those are qualities that the United States needs or wants in a secretary of defense.

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Rebels Have Poison Gas Too
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Western leaders have been keeping the truth from the public on the status of lethal gas in their country.

In what must be an attempt to avoid mass panic, they have not let it be known that Syrian rebel fighters are in possession of poison gas agents. Now let me remind you about who Syrian rebel forces are - they are either out and out al Qaeda members or al Qaeda affiliate members. How did they get them? Defectors brought the components with them when they joined the rebels and they also captured some. The US actually has trained rebels in how to deactivate and secure the gas when it is captured. The opposite side of the same coin is knowing how to activate and use the poison gas. These rebels were trained by CIA personnel in Jordan.

To make matters even worse, Assad has supplied Hezbollah with the gas. He did this in order to get them out the range of the rebels.

Poisonous gas falling into the hands of terrorists was supposed to be a red line in the sand for Western leaders. Supposed to be, but is not. In the north of Syria near Aleppo, serious fighting is taking place in the town of Al Safira - a short 1.5 miles away from a base that contains the largest stockpile of gas in Syria.

The rebels want to get into that base. Assad fought hard to protect it. The Russians actually came to his rescue and helped secure the poisons. The United States is still unclear if this deadly weapon was simply shored up or if the gas was relocated.

Either way the question right now is who will be the first to use poison gas as a weapon - will it be the rebels or will it be the regime.

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Does US Sympathize w Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A new Pew Center poll just came out. The results are surprising and it is essential to publicize and learn from them.

The new Pew poll shows exactly the same information it has shown for the past consecutive six years.

50% of Americans sympathize with Israel
10% sympathize with the Palestinians
13% say that they do not sympathize with either side
23% do not even offer an opinion on the subject.

When you look at Democrats only, the percentage that sympathizes with Israel is much smaller. Only 33% of Democrats side with Israel while 22% sympathize with the Palestinians.

Although the trend is not fluctuating, several of these numbers are very troubling.

The fact that only 1/3 of Democrats are pro-Israel and 1/4 are pro-Palestinian is deeply worrisome can lead to an erosion of the support that Israel receives from the United States. If the strength and support Israel receives from the United States is to remain a foreign policy assumption, the numbers of Democrats supporting Israel must be shorn up and expanded.

If that doesn't happen, Israel might turn into just any other country in the eyes of America.

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PA Now State of Palestine
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday President Mahmoud Abbas gave the order for Palestinians to change their official name from "The Palestinian Authority" to "The State of Palestine."

All literature and all symbols are to be changed immediately to reflect their new status.

Abbas and company are riding the wave of their success at the UN. The UN vote changed their status to that of observer state in the United Nations. That vote, even though it passed, was a violation of the UN charter.

This move is even a greater violation. It is a violation of the treaties signed between Israel, the Palestinians and the United States in the Oslo Accords.

The name Palestinian Authority was supposed to be the interim title of the entity to be changed to something more permanent after a negotiated settlement that would create the State of Palestine.

Unilaterally announcing the name change will further push off negotiations and mutual agreements between Israel and the Palestinians.

I wonder how the United States, Israel and Western Europe will react. I wonder if they will react.


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Israel Decides to Shelve E-1
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the announcement about building in the area known as E-1?

Remember that announcement that came the day after the UN vote to change Palestinian status. Remember the announcement that caused the world to stand up and condemn Israel. Remember the announcement that resulted in Israeli ambassadors around the world being called in to their host countries in order to explain themselves.

Well, it seems that the announcement was just that - only an announcement. The plans were approved long ago when Yitzhak Rabin was prime minister. The they were put in a drawer. After the UN vote Israel dusted them off to use as rhetoric. These were simply plans to build 3000 housing units in E-1.

The great part about plans on paper that came out of a drawer is that they can be put right back in. And it seems that is what has happened.

In politics and in diplomacy there is a huge difference between announcing something and actually doing it. In this case Israel wanted to tell the world that they were the masters of their own destiny. No matter how much flack they would take, they alone would decide what was in their own best interest.

The most critical Israeli point of the entire announcement was that Israel was declaring that if the Palestinians were taking unilateral steps (by going to the UN) then Israel would, also unilaterally, announce the building of 3000 new housing units in E-1.

In diplomacy rhetoric is seldom what it seems. The louder the message the more likely it is to be misleading.

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Israeli Products Found in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Lebanese have launched an investigation.

A bag containing four peppers was discovered in the Spinneys food store in Sidon. And in the bag the word Israel appeared. The authorities and the army were called in - and they found ten other bags. They also discovered that the original barcode was scratched out and a new code had been attached.

Israeli products in Lebanon.

This is not the first time. There actually are many Israeli products to be found in Lebanon, but most are technology and biotech and medical products. And there are many who are up in arms about those also.

Spinneys is the largest food supermarket in the Middle East. Now headquartered in Dubai, it was originally opened in Egypt in 1924 by a British soldier. Spinneys has huge purchase power and transport/delivery power. They buy products internationally and send them wherever they need to go based on quality and price.

These peppers, like many fruits and vegetables in the Middle East, were purchased in Israel and then the labels were swapped in Cyprus. Cyprus is where much of these things happen. Cyprus is the perfect, if you will, middle man.

Unbeknownst to many haters of Israel there are probably many, many rewrapped and repackaged Israeli products including meats, vegetables and technology now are sold in the Arab countries.

Those who boycott Israel are actually, albeit unwittingly, enjoying and savoring some of Israel's best products.

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Syria Tomorrow
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Look at Syria with a critical eye.

If Assad is ousted, it is almost certain that the regime that replaces him will be a regime that embraces Islam as law. It will be an Islamist government. If Assad is ousted, the regime that replaces him will almost definitely be anti-Western, anti-United States and anti those who disagree.

The astounding part of this analysis is that, historically, Syria had tended to be anti-militant. In fact, the vast majority of today's Syrians rejected the Muslim Brotherhood which has been a presence in Syria for decades.

So why shift now? Part of the answer has to do with who the people involved in the rebellion against Assad. Outside forces, like al
Qaeda, have been playing a large role in Syrian politics. In addition, the Salafis - who make the Muslim Brotherhood look liberal, have been centrally involved in Syrian politics. And of course, Jahbat al Nusra, which the US State Department labeled as a terrorist organization, is garnering more and more support within Syria.

Jahbat al Nusra wants shariah, Islamic law, to prevail. They have forbidden the use of tobacco and they have been known to pull cigarettes out of mouths as people pass through checkpoints .
Bottom line: despite their secular proclivities, the Syrian masses have begun to embrace the Islamists.

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Arab Demographic Crisis?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics just came out with a study and a prediction.

They say that by 2016 there will be an even amount of Jews and Palestinians living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. And by 2020, they say, Palestinians will significantly outnumber Israelis.

There are 11.6 Palestinians across the world. 4.4 million live in the West Bank and Gaza. (2.7in the West Bank, 1.7 in Gaza). The study suggests that there will be 6.5 million by 2016 and 7.2 million by 2020.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics bureaucrats are hoping that their study will lead to a huge demographic crisis with Israel. But they are wrong.

One of the main reasons for Israel's unilateral evacuation of Gaza was to push off that demographic inevitability. And the demographic reality is a major push factor for creating a Palestinians State in the West Bank.

Without their highlighting it, this Palestinian study proves the opposite of their intended conclusion. The demographic crisis will not happen.

Since 1997 the average Palestinian family has declined in size from 6.4 per family to 5.6. That is a severe drop in just a decade. If that trend continues --- and there is no reason to assume it will not because as societies become more comfortable they have few children --- the number will decline even further.

This trend of smaller and smaller Palestinian families has proven true over the past few decades. The natural growth rate for Israeli Jews will continue to remain constant at 5.6, if there is any change it will be an increased family size.

In sum, the 1,648,000 Arabs living in Israel are not a serious demographic threat. Two years ago Arabs in Israel numbered 1,535,573 which amounted to 20.1 % of Israel's population. Today they are at 20.6%.

That increase in population is hardly a threat and it does not indicate a crisis on the horizon.

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Chirstians Under Attack in Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Christianophobia is the name of a new study from England published by the highly regarded think tank Civitas.

The study documents how the Christian community of the Middle East is being targeted and is in rapid decline. It states that there is a direct correlation between the rise of militant Islam and the persecution of Christians.

The Civitas study asserts that Christian leaders and others do not stand up and defend the persecuted Christians because they fear being labeled as racist.

The study expresses the fear that there will continue to be more persecution. It asserts that The Muslim world mistakenly understands Christianity to be a Western religion.

The Christianophobia study argues that over the past 100 years 1/3 to 1/2 of all Christians who lived in the Middle East have either been killed or fled. Where Christians once made up 20% of the Middle East, they now make up 5%.

An interesting twist to this study was added by the Hebrew news website YNET, the website of the mass distributed newspaper Yediot Ahronot.

YNET discloses that there are 158,000 Christians living in Israel and that is 2% of the Israeli population. In the year 2000 when the Pope visited there were 130,000 Christians in Israel. In Israel, the Christian population is thriving. Christian have the highest graduation rate of any group in Israel - 64% for Christians, 59% for Jews and 48% for Muslims.

Israel is the exception in the Christianophobia study.

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Arabs Will Not Help PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Arab League visited Ramallah together with the Egyptian foreign minister yesterday.

They of course congratulated President Mahmoud Abbas on his UN victory and explained that they must continue pushing in that vein in order to achieve Palestinian statehood.

Now for the kicker: Last month the Arab League promised to contribute $100 million dollars a month to keep the Palestinian Authority afloat.

The real reason for this visit was to explain that the money is not coming. Not this month - and maybe not at all. Certainly, not in the numbers that were proclaimed and broadcast across the world.

This is the reality. The only group that really gives significant money to the Palestinians is the United States. And it is for that reason if no other that the US should have been much more forceful about stopping the PA from making their move in the UN.

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Al Qaida Puts Bounty on US Amb Head
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda has posted a reward, or even better, a bounty of 3 kilos of gold for the murder of the US Ambassador stationed in Sanaa, Yemen. In US dollars that is roughly equivalent to $160,000.

Al Qaeda also said that that they will pay 5 million Yemeni Riyals, about $23,000, for killing any US soldier.

The announcements went up on al Qaeda sites across the internet.
They explain that they are offering the gold and cash rewards to "inspire and encourage our Muslim nation for jihad."

Al Qaeda is constantly in search of tools for motivation. This is just another very good example.

In this example Al Qaeda is not looking for recruits or planning attacks. In this case they are hoping that highly motivated lone wolves will act on their own. The lone wolf is almost impossible to stop in advance.

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Israeli Elections
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli elections are around the corner, scheduled to take place on January 22nd. Conventional wisdom has it that the Likud Israel Beiteynu party will win the most seats.

But the most recent polling is telling another story. All three recent polls show that the newly combined party is slipping. It is slipping so far down that the polls are now only giving Likud Israel Beiteynu 33 seats.

Of the 120 Knesset seats, right now the polls are giving the left bloc about 43 seats and the right bloc about 47 seats. The Ashkenazi Hareidi party appears stable at 6 seats and the Sefardi Hareidi party is showing 11. All three Arab parties combined, Taal Hadash and Balad, also come to 11 seats.

Of the 43 on the left, Labor has 17, Hatuna combined with Yesh Atid gets 11 and Meretz gets 5.

The big winner is Habayit Hayehudi which is a revamp of the old National Religious Party (NRP). It is polling at 15 and is grabbing voters from Likud.

That only leaves 2 seats open for play.

A month ago I assumed that Likud would walk away with this election with a huge plurality. I must revise my estimate. Likud Israel Beiteynu will still be the largest party, but not by as much as I originally thought. I had also thought that Labor had seen its last days. Now it looks like Habayait Hayehudi will be the third largest party in the next Knesset and that Labor has new life and will once again come in second.

The older parties have been reinvented. Their new incarnations are grabbing voters.

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Muslims in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Muslim extremism is taking a new path in Germany.

On Christmas Day a university student from India was walking home in Bonn, Germany when Muslim men stopped him. They asked him what religion he was.

And then they demanded that he convert to Islam. They warned him that if he declined - they would cut out his tongue.

The young man just ignored them and continued walking. Two men tackled him from behind and beat him. And they took out a knife and cut his tongue.

The attackers ran, jumped into a car and sped away. Hopefully, they will be found and brought to justice in Germany.

Police in Bonn confirmed the incident and said an investigation is ensuing. The university student was taken to a local hospital and his name has not been released.

Germany is a Western democracy. One of the definitions of Western democracy is agreeing to disagree.

How can anyone in a Western democracy even begin to justify these actions to themselves and to others? How can a group of young men roam the streets and not be condemned by their own peers who should be telling them their action is reprehensible and unacceptable?

This act is the height of arrogance.

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Bibi Meets Jordan King
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Israeli news stations have citied a report that ran in the London based Arabic daily Al Quds al Arabi. The report, which ran yesterday, said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had visited Amman, Jordan and had a long extensive discussion with King Abdullah.

This is not farfetched. And it has been confirmed by several members of the prime minister's inner circle.

The main topic of their discussion was the threat posed by Syria should they use non-conventional weapons.

Israel confirmed that they believe that the weapons are currently safely stored in Syria. They could not be certain, however, as to whether or not any chemical weapons have yet to be used during the conflict.

Israel and Jordan have history. In 1994 Jordan and Israel signed a peace treaty but recently King Abdullah has been very critical of Israel and of Netanyahu.

There is important symbiosis between Israel and Jordan. They need one another and they especially need intelligence from one another. And they share enemies - and these enemies work tirelessly towards the destruction of both Jordan and of Israel.

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Iran Navy War Games
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Guess what?

Iran has just announced that they will conduct another set of maneuvers in the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf over the weekend.

The commander of the Iranian navy made the announcement yesterday.
The war games will encompass one million square km. It will include navy, air force and ground missile systems.

The announcement asserts that the exercises are purely defensive.

The commander of the Iranian navy is correct in that the real objective of the maneuvers two fold. First, it is all a show, a grand, show. For internal consumption it will show the Iranians that they are a formidable force. And it will show the rest of the world, all of which will be watching, that Iran is not a push over.

The second and more important objective of these exercises is training. The Iranian navy is in need of training and rehearsal.
This really is, even more than a show, a training maneuver.

The Iranians know how to work a public relations angle, they know how to spin a story.

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Churches Burned on Christmas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is Christmas and that means that churches and Christianity will be under attack by hateful Muslims around the world.

It used to be that these attacks took place almost exclusively in the Middle East and in Muslim countries - but this year Christian communities in Austria and Australia have also been under attack.

The largest mosque on the Australian continent is the Lakemba Mosque, located in the suburb of Sydney called Lakemba in New South Wales. A fatwa, or religious edict, was issued on their Facebook page saying that it is a sin to celebrate any form of Christmas.

The Mosque caught a huge amount of blowback and took down the posting, but the sentiment was clear.

In Austria three churches were set on fire. All the churches were in the city of Amstetten and they were most probably targeted by the same arsonist or arsonists. One of the churches was set ablaze while services were in session. Pictures of the fires show significant damage to the buildings.

Attacks against churches will continue during Christmas season. The purpose is to lash out at Christian success. It is religious persecution born out of jealousy. What a way to prepare to welcome the year 2013.

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Russians Coming - US Leaving
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A few weeks ago I reported that the US 5th fleet was stationed off the coast of Syria. Well, it has just pulled back and is now on its way back to Bahrain.

The 5th fleet is composed of dozens of ship and tens of fighter jets and a fighting force of 4,000. The aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower is the focal point of the fleet.

Why is the fleet leaving?

Probably because the Russians are coming back to Syria. No one wants a conflict in Syria between Russia and the United States.

After the US gave Syria's neighbors Turkey and Jordan patriot missiles, Russia countered by giving Syria five sets of the modern and extremely effective hypersonic rocket system called the Iskander. It has a range of 280 miles and can fly 1.3 miles per second with a 1,500 lb. warhead.

The Russians have already trained the Syrians on how to use the rocket system. This system has yet to be beaten. The Iskander gives Syrian forces a major advantage over all encroaching forces.

It is a defensive weapon and no foreign attacking rocket or aircraft is safe when the Iskander is in the area.

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Why I'm Against Hagel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Chuck Hagel, the former Republican senator from Nebraska, has not been formerly nominated by the president - but he is the leading candidate for Secretary of Defense.

I am against the appointment - but not for the standard reasons. I will admit that Hagel has positioned himself against Israeli and, at times, against classical Western diplomatic policies especially when suggesting a sit down with Iran or when refusing to sign on to a letter condemning Hezbollah.

On these issues he is simply wrong. And there is place for disagreement. Hagel is not a friend of Israel but neither is he an enemy. Just because you are not a friend it does not necessarily follow that you are an enemy.

So why am I opposed to Hagel becoming the next United States Secretary of Defense? Hagel is a poor choice because of his personality. Hagel enjoys making people angry, he enjoys throwing out controversial comments and ideas. He loves to get a rise out of people. He gets a perverse thrill out of it.

That is not the kind of character that should be heading the DOD.

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Polling in th PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A new study was just release by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, a Palestinians outlet that often takes polls and then presents and sends out messages about issues of import to the Palestinians.

They took a poll of 1200 people.
62% favor negations with Israel over a solution.
75% believe that the UN vote was justified.
51% feel that more violence against Israel is required.

If an election were held today, 43% would vote for Abbas and 29% would vote for Ismael Haniyah the head of Hamas.

These figures underscore conflicting realities within the Palestinian community. Palestinians are interested in a solution - but they also feel that attacking Israel is okay.

Most importantly, we now know that Mahmoud Abbas is much more popular than most people thought he was.

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Syria Sends Gas to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

According to yesterday's Washington Post a Syrian defector is saying that Syria removed 100 kilos of chemical weapon components used for Sarin nerve gas.

According to the report the components were moved to Lebanon from their storage facility near Damascus. The report described how, almost a year ago, two men with Lebanese accents arrived at the facility and were trained in how to mix the two gasses isopropanol and methylphosphonyl difluoride. They then removed and took100 kilos back to Lebanon.

The real shocker is that Syria has about 500 tons of isopropanol and methylphosphonyl difluoride. The gasses are kept separately. When mixed, they become chemically activated or - in military terms, they become weaponized and can then be used.

Once weaponized, the material must be stored carefully so that it will distribute properly. Once mixed, it has a very short lifespan so it must be used very soon afterward or it becomes oxidized and is not dangerous.

Sending 100 kilos to Lebanon is hardly a significant amount and hardly a serious threat. But it us enough for a single, localized, target.

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Syrian Rebel Leader - Murder Christians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Another major Muslim leader has called for the murder of Christians.

Ahmad Al Baghdadi Al Hassani is one of the leaders of the rebels in Syria fighting against Assad. He told Christians to convert or die. He gave solace to the women, saying they could save themselves by marrying Muslims.

This announcement came just hours after another rebel leader exclaimed that after Assad, the rebels will turn their sights on Israel.

It is essential to understand something.

We in the West yearn to overthrow dictators and thugs. We want to support the oppressed against the oppressor. But sometimes, in the Middle East, the alternative is far worse the current ruling thug.

There is no doubt that a significant percentage of the rebel forces in Syria right now are either from al Qaeda or have an affinity for al Qaeda. Another significant percentage is deeply entrenched in extreme forms of Islam. These are people who reject any - I repeat - any interaction with the West or with liberalism.

Supporting rebels against thugs may not be the best idea.

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P A & Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

So many people interested in Middle East goings on have been so focused on Israel's announcements about new settlements, even obsessing over them and shouting about how settlements have become an obstacle to peace with the Fatah - PA, that they are totally missing an important, developing, news story.

Here is the story for all who have missed it:
Hamas refused to grant Fatah permission to hold a rally in the central square of Gaza. Meanwhile, the PA has been permitting Hamas to hold repeated rallies in their cities and towns over the past two weeks. And those rallies are the trigger that is sewing the seeds for an Intifada that just may oust the PA.

The PA will not take this lightly. They must clamp down on Hamas.

At this point the prime goal of Hamas is to oust the PA and then make their move against Israel. They cannot achieve Part Two until they have accomplished Part One. This is the main reason why unification between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will never work.

Hamas believes that they need to control both Gaza and the West Bank in order to effectively challenge Israel. It cannot be done from Gaza alone. That explains why Hamas is now so active in Ramallah and other large cities in the West Bank.

Hamas is creating an infrastructure to take over the PA and then attack Israel. That's the story - and it is one of the biggest stories in the Middle East right now.


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Syria- What is Best?
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Right now, it is very PC to side with "the rebels" against Assad in Syria. And the United States has thrown its support behind "the rebels." But "the rebels" are not one entity. The rebels are an extremely divided group.

One set of rebels are, in fact, al Qaeda. And another set of rebels are Salafis.

The leader of the Salafis in Jordan spoke at the funeral of a fellow member who killed himself in a suicide bombing earlier in the week.

The Salafi leader made the following statements:

"We tell Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, get ready. The army of the Prophet Mohammad is coming your way." "Those carrying explosives in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan will find you, Allah willing."

"The next fight is between us and you."
"Take over Damascus and then head to Tel Aviv ... As far as we are concerned, Palestine stretches from river to sea, from Rafah to a-Nakura. We will not rest until Palestine is liberated."

Do not be deceived. Those fighting to oust Assad want to destroy Israel. These groups aka "the rebels" are even more virulent in their hatred of Israel than the rebels who ousted Mubarak in Egypt.

The West and Israel must be very careful. You may support "the rebels" against Assad but know that they are not your friends.

The lesser of these two evils is still very, very, evil.

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Call for a 3rd Intifada
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The National Union Battalions has declared that the 3rd Intifada has begun.

The group called National Union Battalions is composed of members from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah. Their YouTube video explains their goals.

They are now passing leaflets throughout the West Bank and sending out links to their video.

I do not think that they have enough momentum from the masses yet to call the situation "Intifada" which means "uprising" in Arabic. But they are stoking the coals.

The National Union Battalions wants more people to come out, more road blocks and more rock throwers and Molotov cocktail throwers. They have been sending around videos of Israeli soldiers running away from Palestinian youths throwing rocks. The videos proclaim these events as major victories for the Palestinians.

Although it is clear that they are not victories, these videos are from the psychological standpoint, very powerful motivation tools for attracting young Palestinians to throw rocks and go riot. The feeling that results from forcing heavily armed Israelis soldiers to run away must be thrilling.

Israel needs to decide on a very clear path of response. Too heavy a hand could truly force the 3rd Intifada into happening and too light a hand could motivate the masses to join in more acts of uprising.

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Not An Intifada Yet
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is not quite an Intifada -- not yet. But if the Israeli army does not properly handle the unrest in the West Bank it will turn into an Intifada.

Over a thousand people marched toward the check point in Hebron and dozens others marched in towns and cities throughout the West Bank.
They came marching to attend PA sanctioned rallies.

The PA sanctioned rallies were called to officially celebrate the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. It was a dangerous decision the PA made to permit Hamas to march because the inevitable violence could have turned not only against Israel, but also against the PA itself.

The rioters threw Molotov cocktails and rocks. Soldiers fired tear gas.

On Wednesday, in Hebron, a female border guard saw a young boy pull a handgun on her fellow soldier and point it to the back of his head. The Israeli border guard instinctively drew up her weapon and shot and killed the boy. It was later discovered that the gun in the hand of the boy was a toy.

The picture of the Israeli border guard has been sent around the internet with the word "criminal" splashed on it and a warning that "we know who you are."

With each passing day the anger and the violence increases.

The tide has to be reversed to avoid another Intifada.
Unfortunately, the PA does not realize how much is at stake. Hamas really wants an Intifada. For Hamas an Intifada would effectively mean taking over the West Bank. That would oust the PA totally and completely.

The Palestinian Authority does not realize what they have unleashed. The PA still does not get it. The never will.

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Palestinians Get Bold
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are emboldened.

Since last week's UN resolution changing the status of the Palestinians to that of non-voting member, we have seen some significant changes in Palestinian diplomatic bravado.

The following was reported in the London Arabic paper, Al Sharq al Awsat: King Abdullah of Jordan came to Ramallah this week and emphasized the need to return to the negotiation table with Israel.

The paper said that Palestinian president Abbas responded by saying that several conditions must be met before he returns to the table.
And only then will he evaluate the attitude of Israel to the new situation of the Palestinians and determine whether to continue negotiations.

The first condition is that Israel recognize Palestinian state borders within the '67 borders. Next, negotiations must pick up where they broke down under former Prime Minister Olmert which was the swapping of Israeli land for 2.8% of the West Bank. And of course, all settlement activity must stop.

Setting conditions in order to start talks is inevitably an excuse to quit. The conditions are what need to be negotiated.

The Palestinians believe that they have the full commitment of 138 nations behind them. The problem is that peace needs to be negotiated with Israel - not with the 138 countries that voted for the change in Palestinian at the UN.

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Inspections in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is returning to Iran this week. No major interaction has taken place between the IAEA and Iran since January.

At the meetings the IAEA hopes to get permission to inspect and tour Parchin, a huge nuclear facility outside of Teheran. The IAEA suspects that nuclear explosive tests took place in Parchin earlier this year.

In photos Iranians are seen in plowing under earth and shipping it out - ostensibly to hide the remains of nuclear fallout from the experiment. This is known in the nuclear business as "sanitizing a site."

In addition to Parchin the IAEA wants permission to interview Iranian scientists and try to find out what is happening.

The IAEA hopes that the pressure for sanctions will soften Iran’s point of view and allow their inspectors some latitude.

I am not as optimistic as the IAEA.

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Syria - Almost 2 Years
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The civil war in Syria has been dragging on for 21 months.

The figures are staggering. Syria is a relatively small country. 22.5 million people live in Syria. Most of them have been seriously impacted by the conflict.

As of now the there have been about 45,000 deaths. And 509,000 refugees have fled the country - that equals about 2.5 percent of the population. The refugee figures come from the UN. The fatality figures are an estimate.

The destinations of the refugees are Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan.

As we plot and monitor the crisis so far in Syria it seems clear that the pendulum swings back and forth. Assad is on the rise and then he is on the ropes. The resistance is more effective and then they are less effective. Until the rebels unite it will be very difficult to oust Assad.

It is impossible to predict the future of Syria. As long as the air force and most of the army still stand behind Assad he will not step down and he will continue to inflict serious damage on the rebels. And the country will remain torn and shattered.

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Syria Impacts Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

What happens in Syria has an impact on Lebanon. That should come as no surprise to anyone following the Middle East.

Lebanon is in many ways attached to Syria. And so the civil war of Syria is also being fought on the streets of Lebanon.

Sometimes the fighters are armed gangs that support one side against the other. But the most common place for the fight to be pursued is in the media - on television, radio, newspapers and on the web.

Syria supports Hezbollah in Lebanon. So does Iran. Iran also supports Bashar Assad of Syria. The relationship between Syria and Lebanon is so very close that until very recently, Syria did not even have an embassy in Lebanon - they simply saw Lebanon as a Syrian province.

Syria murdered the political leadership it did not like in Lebanon. Literally. They acted with impunity.

Lebanon is more open, richer, better educated and much more cosmopolitan than Syria, but the Lebanese were there to do the bidding of Damascus. And the divisions and conflicts within Lebanon only served to assist Syria in manipulating Lebanese society and leadership and causing more strife.

Lebanese who were supportive of Syria got a pay check from Syria and they did what they were told. So again, it is no surprise that those supporters hired by Assad are now attacking supporters of the Syrian rebels on the streets of Lebanon.

Expect more conflict on the streets of Lebanon.

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Arabs Pledge $100/month to PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The most important decision to emerge from the recent Arab summit is that they - Arab countries - will provide the Palestinian Authority with $100 million per month.

It is all the result of the UN vote which changed Palestinian status to that of observer state from organization. Now, Arab countries are stepping forward with commitments.

According to World Bank figures, the PA actually needs $243 million per month. They will get $100 million from taxes collected by Israel. But that still leaves a serious deficit. The vast majority of PA costs go to paying their 153,000 civil servants.

The $43 million difference must be made up by taxes. And so far, the PA has failed miserably at collecting taxes. For that matter, they have failed at almost every element in the bureaucratic infrastructure that is the foundation of government.

The $100 million from Arab countries is a very important injection into their economy but - despite the promises, very seldom do Arab countries honor their pledges, especially to the PA. And if they do, the money never gets there on time.

And then there are the questions of who will be collecting money and how will it be transferred? These are some of the questions left unanswered at the summit.

Getting aid is fine, but the bigger problem facing the Palestinian Authority is building an economy - an economy that can sustain itself so that it does not have to live on the dole.

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Shocking Perfume in Gaza - Kill Jews
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

I could never have made this one up.

A new Perfume has hit the market in Gaza. It is called M-75. M-75 is the official name of the Iranian Fajr rocket that was shot toward Israel during Operation Pillar of Defense.

The fragrance comes in both male and female scents. It also comes with a message. The message is: this perfume is "worthy of the victory in the Gaza Strip."

I have already written about how the name Fajr has become very popular since the operation - but a perfume?!

Sadly, it is not the first time this has happened. After the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah a Lebanese company came out with a fragrance called "Perfume of Resistance."

I cannot imagine what it is made of and how it was developed. The Palestinians may call it perfume, but it probably the watered down version known as toilet water. A main line fragrance costs 100 million to develop and that process takes several years. The science behind perfumery is extremely sophisticated as is the marketing.

Here the marketing plan for both fragrances is very simple: Celebrate the killing of Jews.

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Hamas Homecoming for Maashal
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 8,2012

I've Been Thinking:

Halad Maashal is in Gaza.

Maashal arrived yesterday and will be in Gaza for 48 hours celebrating both the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas and the recent Hamas victory over Israel.

Maashal is the head of Hamas.

He is officially in exile and, according to Israel, not permitted in Gaza.

In 1997 after a gruesome terror attack in a market in Jerusalem then Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the assassination of Halad Maashal.

Two Mossad agents approached Maashal in Amman, Jordan and spritzed him in the ear with a poison. But they botched the mission and the two agents were subdued by Maashal's driver and arrested. After the antidote was delivered and Maashal's life was saved, the agents were released.

As another part of the deal to free the agent Hamas prisoners in Israel jails were released - including Sheik Ahmad Yassin, known as the Blind Sheik.

Maashal is a major symbol for Hamas and for Israel. His arrival to Gaza raises some big issues. Should Israel try to assassinate him and this time succeed, what will be the fallout?

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Israeli Elections
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, the Israeli election committee officially closed the list of parties eligible to run in the January 22, 2013 election for the 120 seats in Israel's 19th Knesset.

34 parties are now registered. Several parties may still drop out, but no more can be added. Each party must now submit their list of viable Knesset members. The Knesset has 120 seats and each party will choose the people and the order of their list. Some parties will vote on it, some will have a committee choose and some will have their list chosen by a rabbi.

Of the 34 parties only 10 to 15 will make get enough votes to be viable. A party must receive 2% of the vote to be eligible to sit in the Knesset. This 2% threshold restricts marginal and small parties.

In the last election, in February of 2009, 13 parties were elected.

Only 4 of those parties won more than 10 seats. Kadima won 28, Likud won 27, Israel is Our Home won 15 and Shas won 11 seats.
Since then, Kadima has totally imploded. Likud and Israel is Our
Home have merged. In all likelihood, this time around Shas will again get at least 10-12 seats or perhaps even 15 seats. One or two new parties will probably emerge and garner 8 or 9 seats - enough to exert some control and pressure on the larger parties. But in the end, these new parties like so many others before them they will have no staying power. The new parties that emerge are usually single issue parties, or parties based on a single personality.

I expect the total amount of Arab seats to remain the same at 11. And I expect the ultra religious Ashkenazi seats to remain at 5 seats. I also expect Labor to drop from 8 to 5 or 4 seats.

The big winner will be the Likud Israel is Our Home party which will get at least 42 seats in this election. Should they hit the 50 mark which is not totally improbably, it would make the task of cobbling together a coalition government that much easier. The leading party only needs 61 seats to form and maintain a government.

January 22nd is approaching fast.

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E-1 at The US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli decision to move ahead on a plan to build in Area E-1 has raised many people's ire. Some supporters of Israel are asking: Why spit in the face of your ally, the United States?

The US did everything it could to avoid the UN vote on Palestinian which would change the status of the PA to that of observer.
Nothing else could have been done to prevent the resolution on the floor of the General Assembly.

What is E-1?

It is an area of about 4.6sq miles that abuts Maalei Adumim and is called Maveseret Adumim. It is the area that would connect Maalei Adumim to Jerusalem. It is an area that runs next to several Arab villages including Abu Dis and Isawiyah.

In the 1950's the Jahalin Bedouins were relocated from the Negev near Tel Arad to what is now known as Area E-1 because the area was necessary for military and defense use. In 1994 then Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin officially made E-1 part of Maaleh Adumim. In 2008 a multimillion dollar regional police headquarters was completed there.

Ehud Barak, Ehud Olmert and Bibi Netanyahu have all wanted to implement construction in E-1. For Barak and Olmert the idea was two-fold. It was a check to Arab development that was going east and it enabled a road which would bypass Jerusalem going from Bethlehem to Ramallah on the other side of Maalei Adumim.

These plans were discussed in the Taba Talks. At the time the Bush administration forced Israel to desist from pursuing the plans because it would be seen as inflammatory and destructive to the peace process.

So, yes. Israel's decision to advance the E-1 plan is spitting in the face of the United States.

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Jordan King to Visit Ramallah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah plans on visiting Ramallah tomorrow, Thursday.

This will be the first visit of a head of state to Ramallah since last Thursday's UN vote changing the status of the PLO from an organization to an observer state.

Only a few dozen miles separate Ramallah from Amman, Jordan. The trip will take the king no more than a few minutes by helicopter.

The purpose of the visit is very significant. King Abdullah of Jordan is telling Israel that Jordan is firmly behind the UN change and Palestinian statehood. Jordan has much at stake in a successful Palestinian state especially because Jordan is composed predominantly of Palestinians.

Disorder or political unrest in the Palestinian Authority will certainly flow over the river to the Hashemite kingdom.

In Jordan, at this moment, there is a very strong anti-monarchy movement being led by the Islamists. They would gladly join forces with the Palestinians if they could in order to oust the king.

Going to Ramallah is not ceremonial. Going to Ramallah is an essential political move by Hussein. The fact that the visit also effectively embarrasses Israel is a double bonus for Jordan and for the Palestinians.

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Iran Thinks Assad is On the Way Out
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A newspaper in Lebanon that is supportive of the Syrian rebels recently reported that Iran believes that the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad may be coming to an end.

The paper relates that Ali Larijani, Iranian speaker of the parliament, told Syrian president Bashar Assad that at the point of no return, Iran will host him. Supposedly Assad responded by saying he has only two options - death or victory.

The newspaper added that the tone used by Larijani was one of farewell. It seems that this is not a change in Iranian policy - it seems that this is the exact same message that the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei gave to Assad months ago.

More important than the message here, is the medium. The entire episode was reported in a media outlet that supports the rebel cause against Assad. It is a tool which sends a message of hope to those fighting the regime. The message says that even Iran, the greatest supporters of Assad, has concluded that the regime will soon fall.

I do not know if the assessment is correct. I can say that the death total is getting higher and higher. And it seems that many more rebels are dying than Assad loyalists.

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Turkey Wants Patriot Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 3, 3012

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton is traveling to Europe this week. Her first stop is Prague where the Secretary of State will discuss their energy problems. The most important leg of this trip will be Brussels where Clinton will join with the other NATO foreign ministers.

The most significant issue on the agenda in Brussels will be Turkey's request for Patriot missiles. The Patriot is an American made anti-surface-to-surface missile battery.

Turkey has fears that Syria will launch chemical weapons at the rebels and may - either accidentally or deliberately, strike Turkey.

The Turks say that they have intelligence to that effect and they point to several Syrian rockets that have already gone awry.

There is no doubt that Syria has at least several hundred ballistic missiles with chemical warhead capability. The chemicals Syria is thought to have are mustard gas, a form of sulfur that burns the skin terribly, and the nerve agents sarin and vx.

In 2003, during the Gulf War, Turkey received two sets of Patriots batteries. They were Dutch and German manned and in place to protect Turkey. That is their hope once again.

It is very unlikely that Syria will launch such weapons. And even less likely that they will use them to attack Turkey. But Turkey is correct in wanting to be prepared for all contingencies and if the Dutch and the Germans agree, there should be no significant reason to deny the request.

The discussion in and of itself is significant because it shows us that, finally, NATO is starting to take a real interest in Syria and the Middle East.

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Who Supported Israel at the UN
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The same question has been asked of me over and over and over again since the UN vote of Thursday. It is a question worth raising and answering.

The question is: Which are the eight countries who voted together with Israel against the Palestinian state?

The vote was 138 - 9 with 41 exemptions. Given that 132 nations already had diplomatic ties with the PA the vote was a slam dunk from the outset.

The answer as to which countries supported Israel will blow your mind.

The United States and Canada were the only countries in North America to support Israel. That's two.

The only European country to support Israel was the Czech Republic and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting there today to thank them personally. That's three.
Then there was Panama. That's four.

The other four countries were Pacific Island nations that most people have never even heard and would never find on a map.

Nauru has 9,378 residents. Palau has about 20,000. The Marshall Islands has 68,000 residents. Micronesia, which has supported Israel in the past, is a huge metropolis by comparison with 111,000 residents.

Four of the countries eight countries that threw their support behind Israel in the United Nations vote have a combined population of about 200,000 people. You can fit them all in a few blocks in New York City.

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OOM SHMOOM
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians and Mahmoud Abbas are in 7th heaven. They never anticipated just how glorious it would feel to so publicly defeat Israel and the United States.

Israel is still feeling the sting of the trouncing. Only eight other countries took their side at the United Nations. They feel totally abandoned and the scope of the loss is hard to quantify.

Never before has this kind of near total rejection of Israel's POV ever happened on the international diplomatic stage.

Part of it had to do with the point of the argument which was, admittedly, hard to win. 132 of 193 countries in the UN already have diplomatic relations with the Palestinian Authority. Actually, more countries in the UN have diplomatic relations with the PA than have with Israel.

Even if people disagreed with the argument it was, nonetheless, valid, logical and most importantly - legal. The UN violated one of its own preconditions by voting in a change of status for the PA. They are giving country status - the name Palestine - to something without borders.

One response to the whole situation is to quote from Israel's first prime minister, David Ben Gurion. In the1950's Ben Gurion said about the UN which is referred to as the OOM in Hebrew, OOM SHMOOM!

There is nothing more that can be said.

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Arafat's Widow
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday a special committee headed by a Palestinian doctor exhumed the body of Yasser Arafat. Samples were taken.

After being unearthed, the body of Arafat was brought into a nearby mosque. There investigating doctors took biopsy cuttings from the former Palestinian leader who died in November of 2004.

For years now Palestinians have claimed that the Israeli Mossad poisoned Arafat with polonium. The claim has some grounds for believability because small traces of polonium were detected on Arafat's clothing.

The disinterment took place just a few days before the Palestinians went to the General Assembly of the United Nations to change status from that of an organization, The PLO, to a nation observer.

Arafat's widow, Suha, says that the timing of exhumation has spiritual significance. She said that it is almost as if Arafat was resurrected - as if his spirit was there at the vote.

Of course this entire episode is nothing more than rhetoric. During the lifetime of her husband Suha shunned being a presence in official Palestinian business, preferring a more flamboyant lifestyle in Paris. Now, these many years later, Suha is trying to place herself and Arafat in the limelight of an important event in Palestinian history.

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Price is Worth it for the PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the day. It is the day the Palestinian Authority brings their request for change of status to the floor of the United Nations.

They have the votes and they will emerge victorious. But what kind of victory will it really be?

The only other parties that count, the two countries that are invested in this decision, its aftermath and its ramifications, the United States and Israel, consider the conferring of statehood on the PA now, in this forum, a diplomatic step back.

I am certain that both the United States and Israel will exact a short term price from the PA for the move. I am just as certain that Palestinian leadership weighed the cost of the decision and then, none the less, decided to absorb the punishment because, in the end, it will be beneficial for them.

The Israeli response does not interest the Palestinians. And the United States will probably only temporarily stop funding them.

Congress will want to exact a serious price, but the Palestinians are convinced that the funding stoppage will only be temporary because the White House will come to their aid and that, after only a few weeks, the money flow will continue just as it did before. Palestinian leadership just assumes that this will be part of an American public dress down.

In their eyes it is an inexpensive cost given how much they will gain in the eyes of the world specifically because they are defying the United States.

That is the irony. Defying the US will in the end not hurt the PA financially. And they will also gain international respect internationally by challenging the US and publicly humiliating them.

And there will be a new state added to the roster of the United Nations.

The United Nations, the enabler.

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Palestinians in the UN
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking :

The Palestinians have decided to go ahead with their proposal to the United Nations for statehood. They have secured support from far more than half of the General Assembly members. Yesterday France announced that they, too, will support the proposal.

The United States is against it.

But the proposal is not what people think it to be. The problem does not lie where people think it lies.

Currently their status is that of an organization - the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization). And so this attempt, though referred to as statehood, is actually a change of status to now become the Palestinian Authority.

They are proposing that their official representation be changed to observer status and that they become recognized not as an organization but as a country. What happens next is the problem.

That change, if approved, effectively means involvement in committees and other roles in the UN.

There has yet to be a negotiated settlement to determine where the country will be located. The PA will be a country without borders.

This is called a unilateral move. A decision or an act made without the partner or the intermediaries - Israel and the United States. That is why there is opposition. And that is why the move is so dangerous to the future of negotiations.

The date that the PA has chosen to present their proposal is also significant. It was on November 29, 1947 that the United Nations originally proposed a two-state solution, a proposal which was rejected by the Arabs at the time.

The date is extremely important to Palestinian leadership, they need it to rectify history.

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Israel Wanted to Target Hamas Leader
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Kuwaiti paper reported on the Israeli strike which killed Ahmed Jabari claiming that Jabari was not the original target.

Rather, the paper said, Israel's original target was Prime Minister Ismael Haniyah.

But targets change all the time. The report suggests that while Haniyah was under surveillance he had several heated conversations with Jabari and that is how Israel was able to locate Jabari. Since the whereabouts of Jabari were always in flux, Israel only had a small window to strike and they did.

Jabari was on Israel's hit list for a long time.

Part of the conflict between Haniyah and Jabari was that Jabari had searched the prime minister's home. He did it at the request of the leader of Hamas who is headquartered outside of Gaza.

This search was humiliating - hence the heated exchanges between Haniyah and Jabari and Israel successful detection and killing of Jabari.

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Fajr Popular Name In Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since the start of Operation Pillar of Defense the name "Fajr" has become not only famous, but popular.

Many children born in Gaza since the operation began been given the name in honor of the Iranian rocket that shot deep into Israel wreaking havoc and instilling fear into the hearts of millions of Israelis - the Fajr 5.

The word "Fajr" means "Dawn." Naming children after a rocket is the Hamas way of celebrating terror and saying thank you to Iran for helping them attack the heartland of Israel.

Meanwhile, the Sunday Times of London reported yesterday that Israeli spy satellites have seen ships in Iranian ports being loaded with Fajr - getting ready to be smuggled into Gaza.

Experts say that the best way to get the Fajr 5 into Gaza is to get them into Egypt, disassemble them into four or five parts and then bring them through the tunnels to be reassembled on the Gaza side.

We have not see the last of the Fajr - neither the name nor the rocket.

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I Can't Believe Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There were two reports that I read very early this morning that were so surprising, I had to read them over again. On the first reading
I found them to be beyond belief and assumed that my reaction was due to the wee early hour of the morning. The second reading was, I am pleased to say, confirmation. They are beyond belief.

The first report was on a fatwah, a legal religious decree, by a major Islamic figure in Gaza named Suleiman al Daya. Al Daya issued a fatwah saying that violating the Tahadiyah cease fire with Israel is a sin. The fatwah was publicized throughout Gaza.

"Honoring the truce, which was sponsored by our Egyptian brethren, is the duty of each and every one of us. Violating it shall constitute a sin."

The second report was the transcript of a CNN interview with Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas. In the interview Mashaal says that he would accept a Palestinian state within the 67 borders. He does not accept Israel and did not wish to be asked about recognizing Israel until he gets a state.

These two issues were remarkable in terms of measuring change in the Hamas POV. Until now, comments of this sort would have rendered the speaker a traitor. At best, he would have been ousted from leadership - more likely, he would have been executed.

I never thought that, during my lifetime, I would hear comments like these coming from either a popular cleric or the leader of Hamas, let alone from both.

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Hamas Claims Victory
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is proclaiming victory over Israel.

There have been celebrations in the streets of Gaza. Hamas leaders have taken to local and international media announcing not only how victorious they were, but how miserably Israel failed.

In truth, Israel is also claiming victory despite the voices saying that victory was only partial and that soon Israel will return to the very same place they were in - with rockets raining down on them from Gaza.

The big difference is what Hamas is celebrating.

After the Wednesday morning rush hour terror attack inside a crowded bus in Tel Aviv, Gazans celebrated the horrific deed. They danced in public, glorifying an attack against innocent people.

No explanation, no rationale can adequately explain these celebrations.

Victory is a very strange concept in the Arab world. It is not unique to the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite tremendous losses both leaders and the people will claim their own victory as long as a single person remains to shout or to fight.

That is exactly what we witnessed in Southern Lebanon. Now we are witnessing it in Gaza.

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Morsi Becomes Dictator
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Now that Egyptian President Morsi has a major diplomatic victory under his belt he is moving on in an effort to fulfill new goals.

Morsi is going to try to unite Hamas (the leaders in Gaza) and Fatah (the leaders of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank). I wish him luck - I do not see that as even remotely possible. For the past six years efforts have been made to unite those two factions and all to no avail.

In addition, yesterday Morsi proclaimed and then set into law a series of acts that removes any checks or balances in the fledgling Egyptian democracy.

Morsi announced that he has written into law that none of his decisions are subject to appeal by the courts. This newly created law amplifies the power he already gave himself when he wrote another law giving himself anything he wants without approval of the lower chamber of parliament. He wrote that law after the courts announced that the parliamentary election was invalid.

Now the president of Egypt has set himself high above any other government body.

A leader from the opposition party, former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohammed el Baradei, tweeted that Morsi has become a new Pharaoh. Baradei is absolutely correct.

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Ceasefire in Arabic
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The word that means "ceasefire" in Arabic is not the same as the
word for ceasefire in English or even in Hebrew.

It actually does not mean "ceasefire." The word used is "tahadiya" and it actually means "lull."

A lull means a lessening of intensity - it does not mean a stopping of action. Ceasefire, on the other hand, means a total stoppage of attacks.

Knowing this, one should not be surprised that 14 rockets were shot from Gaza into Israel within the first hours of the tahadiya.

Islam has another, similar, term - "hudna." We hear a lot about hudna regarding peace and ceasefires, but it, too, is the wrong term to use.

Hudna refers to a maximum ten year truce between Muslims and non-believers. We come across the term in the Koran as a response to the realization that Mohammed is not capable of defeating the tribe of Qaraysh. A tactical decision was made and it was called the treaty of Hudaybiyah.

The prophet Mohammed enters into the treaty and then builds up his power. Actually, he enters into the treaty in order to build up his power. At the point where he can defeat Qaraysh, Mohammed breaks the treaty and slaughters Qaraysh.

This story from the Koran is enormously illustrative of how Islam views treaties and ceasefire agreements.

Call it tahadiya or call it hudna - either way it will not last long.

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Hamas Publicly Executes 6
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas publicly executed six people yesterday. This is the second time that they have dragged people out of their cars, tied them up and then shot them in the head in public squares. Hundreds of people watched and cheered.

The victims were called collaborators. Officials are quoted on Hamas' Aqsa radio saying that these six people had video equipment and transmission equipment.

The New York Times web site records the executions, they have both video and still pictures.

The video shows someone being shot and then dragged through the streets by a motorcycle. Around his neck hangs a sign proclaiming that he was responsible for the deaths of fifteen Palestinian leaders.

This kind of brutal, public murder and public celebration is part of life in Gaza. No judge, no jury, just murder.

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Ceasefire
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Some would simply call it gall, others will call it arrogance. Such is life and negotiations in the Middle East.

In the talks now taking place in Egypt, talks in which the Egyptians are trying to broker a cease fire between Israel and Hamas, Hamas has listed their demands.

Hamas is demanding:
No ground attack.
End to targeted assassinations
Ease restrictions and lift the blockade on Gaza.
And then, only after all that happens, will they come to terms and stop shooting rockets at Israel.

In response Israel also had an unreasonable request. Unreasonable because of the context, under normal situations this would be a simple assumption.

Israel is requesting:
A 15 year ceasefire agreement.

Suffice it to say the parties are far apart. Even if they were to come to an agreement, there is no doubt in my mind that the cease fire would be violated - by both sides.


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Hamas & Israel Measure Success
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is important to have a sense of perspective about what is now happening in Israel and in Gaza.

What are the numbers?
How effective is Israel in their counter attack?
How damaging has Hamas been?

As of this writing Israel has targeted 1,100 locations in Gaza.

Operation Pillar of Defense began on Wednesday. 80 locations were targeted between Saturday night and early Sunday morning, another 130 were targeted on Sunday.

Hamas has shot 820 rockets at Israel. 540 landed. 280 were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome, a special weapon that specializes in knocking out short range rockets before they hit their targets.
31 of the 820 rockets landed in or near urban areas in Israel, that is about 3.7% of the total rockets fired. That means that Israel has been effective at stopping most of the rockets.

Hamas is satisfied. Just having Israel sound air raid sirens in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem was a huge victory. Hamas is now stripping their rockets of their heavy explosive head - this way the rockets will have greater range. For Hamas, the fear factor and the terror they are striking into the heart of Israel and every Israeli is far more valuable than the actual destruction caused by the rockets.

Hamas gains from disrupting normal life and injecting a sense of profound fear into the heartland of Israel. That is their measure of success. That is their objective.

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What Hamas Wants
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The ratcheted-up conflict between Israel and Hamas has been going on for almost a week. It is time to take a look at several important issues.

The objective of Israel is to get a cease fire. Israel wants their citizens to live in quiet without fear of rocket fire.

The objective of Hamas is quite the opposite. Hamas is acting in order to provoke stronger and greater responses from Israel. The actions of Hamas indicate that they want Israel to advance on the ground and enter Gaza. It is as if Hamas has planned numerous surprises for Israeli ground troops when they enter.

A ground offensive could be extremely costly both for Israel and for Hamas.

Israel's top echelon leadership is going to stay far away from that option at this time. But the leaders of Israeli cities and the regional councils have a different objective. Local leaders and mayors have said they do not want a temporary cease fire. They want a solution. A solution means destroying Hamas.

Destroying Hamas would be even more costly than a ground war.

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Conflict w/ Hamas is About Timing
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is ratcheting up.

Hamas has set their sights higher and targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, the heartland of Israel. Where for years the targets of these incessant rockets have been Jewish communities living on the periphery in places like Sderot, that is no longer the case.

The rockets are no longer an inconvenience, they are now aimed at mainstream Israel. Hamas has taken it up a notch and they are attacking places where the vast majority of Israel resides.

To those people are asking why Israel does not just go in and take out Hamas, I answer: It is not so simple an equation.

The objective of any operation Israel undertakes may not be the elimination of Hamas. It seems that the objective is creating a long term cease fire and quiet - not getting rid of Hamas. That is a critical difference.

There is another reason. Israel is preparing for an election. And on the eve of an election, when soldiers may be put in harm's way and when there may be great military and/or civilian losses, no politician is going to want to advance a ground war and risk not getting re-elected.

The situation is moving ahead. Expect action - on both sides, soon.

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Crisis Btw Hamas & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas broke through the glass ceiling.

Hamas shot two Fajr-5 missiles at Tel Aviv. The rockets aimed at

Tel Aviv were fired only a short two hours after they fired at the
city of Rishon LeZion. Be'r Sheba, the capital of the Negev, was also the target of numerous attacks.

In all, nearly 500 rockets and missiles were shot from Gaza into Israel since Wednesday.

Israel will not take this sitting down. The Israelis have already responded to an earlier onslaught of rocket attacks by successfully targeting and assassinating Hamas military leader and strategist Ahmad Jabari.

This barrage by Hamas seems to be a response to that planned hit.
The cycle continues.

Israel has called-up tens of thousands of reserves. But this battle is most likely to take place in the skies over Gaza. Hamas and Gaza are not the same as Hezbollah and Lebanon.

It would not be wise for Israel to enter Gaza and launch a land offensive at this time.

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Jordan Drops Subsidies - Riots Begin
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Jordan lifted subsidies on food stables and on fuel. The move caused riots throughout the Hashemite kingdom.

The main supporters of the riots and its organizers were Islamic extremists, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda.

Jordan is suffering from a $3 billion debt. That debt amounts to 11% of their gross national product. And that is a recipe for disaster.

Subsidies artificially keep prices down below market prices. They are a large reason for the deficit because the government must pay the difference. Subsidies, in essence, are a gift to the people.

Since the Arab Spring began, Jordan has wanted to reduce subsidies.

But the King feared that any change like that could cause riots and, quite possibly, lead to situations similar to the uprisings in Egypt, Syria and Libya.

The Jordanians cannot put off their decision any longer.

The Islamists will try to capitalize on the lifting of subsidies in hope that the economic crunch will gather momentum and that the greater masses will be galvanized and eventually, King Abdullah will be ousted.

We have to monitor this very carefully. At any moment, it can go either way.

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Iranian War Games
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is in the third day of a weeklong military exercise. The exercise will include 8,000 soldiers, planes, rockets, missiles and ships and it will cover huge swaths of area covering thousands of miles.

It is Iran’s largest ever military exercise and is being heralded with great bluster and propaganda. Iran has promised to unroll their three newest weapons which, word has it, include short range defense missiles.

There are two or problems with Iran's military games. First of all, the Iranians tend to exaggerate. They hype their weapons to make them look more powerful than they really are to frighten and intimidate their enemies and impress their citizens.

Second is that the Iranians often pass off old versions of weapons as new. Sometimes they revamp and repaint them. Sometimes they take imported weapons and try to embellish them or make them look Iranian.

That said, there have been some real technical surprises coming out of Iran, but none of them in the field of missiles.

In the end, this weeklong event is probably nothing more than a large, drawn out, propaganda tool. But we are still watching it very carefully.

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England Can't Expel Terrorists Imam
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

England has been trying to deport an al Qaeda preacher named al Qatada to Jordan ever since 2001. The Brits have won all their court cases and Jordan is ready and willing to accept him.

Al Qatada was convicted in absentia for two terror attacks in Jordan. If returned, he would be retried. England has gotten absolute promises from Jordanian officials as high as King Abdallah that al Qatada would not be executed if convicted.

But now a court in England has said that those assurances are not believable.

In addition to his terror convictions in Jordan Al Qatada was also convicted of supporting terrorist activity in England. He would regularly preach about attacks and attacking.

When a country like England wins their case against someone like al Qatada they cannot simply expel him. There needs to be a country to receive the expelled person. Without a country on the receiving end the expelled person remains in England.

That is the case with al Qatada. It looks like he will be remaining in England.

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Palestinian Bid @ UN
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called US President Barack Obama and congratulated him on his election victory. In the course of the conversation Abbas also explained to Obama why he wanted to make a move in the UN changing the status of Palestinians from "observer" to "non member."

Ynet reports that Nabil Abu Rudeina, spokesman for the Palestinian president, recounted the conversation between Obama and Abbas and said that Obama reportedly expressed the resistance of the US for the bid.

The US does not want Palestinians status to change at the UN until there is significant progress in direct negotiations between the PA and Israel. Otherwise, a change in status at the UN will be seen by Israel as a unilateral act by the PA.

That act would be that the Palestinians are changing their status to that of a country outside of the framework of face-to-face discussions with Israel which is an essential part of the road map for progress.

Obama and the US understand that a move like this in the UN will only produce negative results and are trying to explain to Abbas and the Palestinians that this act will be an act of self-destruction.

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Israel Tense of 2 Borders
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Israeli borders are getting very hot.

Since Saturday evening more than 75 rockets have been shot into Israel from Gaza. The rockets are being launched by the brand new SK-8 which has the capability of shooting multiple rockets in rapid succession. Islamic Jihad has a whole slew of new weapons that they are rolling out against Israel.

This enormous increase in rocket intensity and the use of a weapon system that is much more effective and efficient than any that was previously used is causing Israel to reconsider their position. Will Israel be able to regain an effective policy of defense through intimidation? Will or when will Israel advance a land strike into Gaza?

At the same time Syria has resumed shooting across their border into Israel. This is the 4th breakdown of that border. The first two involved tanks that went into the demilitarized zone, the third time it was shots across the border and this morning a rocket was shot into the Golan.

Israel fired back warning shots including a computer smart bomb meant to tell them to stop.

Israel does not seem to think that Syria wants to invade or even draw Israel into the conflict. But Hamas certainly wants Israel to launch a ground offensive in Gaza.

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Arms Deals in The MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two major arms deals have caught my attention of late.

First, Iraq. Iraq has outlined a deal to buy $4 billion worth of weapons from Russia. The weapons will include, among other arms, attack helicopters and missiles. The plan was made public and now domestic Iraqi press is saying that the deal is filled with kickbacks and improprieties.

The biggest issue here is why are the Iraqis buying their arms from Russia and not the US?

Next, Saudi Arabia. I just saw that the US Defense Security Agency has submitted a nearly $7 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia and has asked for approval from Congress. Congress has 30 days to question or reject the deal.

The deal includes attack fighter jets and five refueling jets. Despite some tensions Saudi Arabia is again purchasing large weapons from the United States.

To give some background and some sense of numbers, in 2010 Saudi Arabia bought $60 billion in weapons from the US. In 2011 there was another arms deal in which the US provided 84 fighter jets in exchange for $30 billion dollars.

Keeping a watchful eye on arms deals is an essential tool to evaluate the flow of contacts and power in the world --- especially in the Middle East.

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Iran Wants Another Drone
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

No doubt about it. Iranian fighter jets shot at US unmanned drones flying in international airspace over international waters.

Iran has now warned the United States that they will not take kindly to surveillance in the region. The US responded by saying that they were legally in international waters - in the "waters of the Arabian Gulf." Calling the waters the "Arabian" Gulf was a direct jab against Iran who refers to the body of water as the Persian Gulf.

International law specifically refers to territory that extends 12 nautical miles from the shoreline. This incident took place 16 miles offshore - clearly not in Iranian space.

The drone was a MQ-1, also known as a predator drone. It was attacked by two SU-25 Russian-made fighter jets with a single seat. Because of their unusual shape they are called Frogfoot.
Now the real story.

In Dec 2011 Iran brought down a stealth unmanned bat drone. The Iranians reverse engineered the drone and they are now producing them. The Iranians wanted to bring down the predator drone and then quickly fish it out of the Persian Gulf before the US swooped in to retrieve it.

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Jewish Vote
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It may be Thursday already, but Monday morning quarter backing is in full swing. And now it is essential to ask and answer some really big questions.

The Jewish vote has traditionally leaned Democratic. This election was no exception. Exit polls show that 70% of Jews supported Obama. 2012 was a small drop from the 74% that supported Obama in 2008.

But the Jewish vote was never up in the air. It was never part of the potential swing, not even in those states that were up for grabs.
The real reason for the interest of the Democratic Party in the Jewish community is not at all about votes. The leadership of the Democratic Party needs to make certain that Jewish support will be in their court not because they care about a handful of Jewish votes but because Jews contribute large sums to the Democratic war chest.

That explains the caring, the concern, the sensitivity to Jewish needs. It is money, not votes. And during election periods, money counts.

Campaign contributions are the reason and the only reason that Jews are courted by the Democratic Party. Contributions are why the Democratic party invests so much time and energy focusing on the Jewish community.

The Jewish vote did not swing the election and it never will. But Jewish money, that was an essential part of the Obama victory.

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Iran to Go to Nuke Conference
By Micah Halpern

November 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announced that they will participate in the international conference on a Nuclear Free Middle East. The conference is scheduled for December.

That news should not come as a shock to anyone. More than that, it was a predictable move on the part of Iran.

Until now the Iranians have been publicly silent on their conference involvement.

But we all assumed that they would attend and once there, attack Israel. The Iranians will have no need of defending themselves at the conference. Their argument has always been that they need nuclear technology for 3 reasons.

# 1 as an energy alternative to fossil fuels/oil and gas

# 2 to help other countries attain the technology

# 3 to respond to Israel who already has a nuclear program.

Iran has an agenda at the International Atomic Energy Agency. Their ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Sultanieh, has consistently advanced an anti Western point of view. He argues that it is the right of Iran to develop nuclear technology and the West -especially the US, has no right to tell them what to do.

The Nuclear Free Middle East conference will be more of the same. More of the same claims. More of the same rhetoric. More of the same threats and accusations.

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Iran's Take on the Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today is Election Day in the United States. At this point he polls have the election so tight that it is impossible to predict who will win. For America, this is an exciting and dramatic time.

The drama has spread far beyond the borders of the USA. The Iranian foreign ministry has come out with a very clear statement about the elections and about the candidates.

The statement is posted on Nasim, an Iranian news website. It reads: "Both Democrats and Republicans were hostile towards Iran in the past, our only criteria evaluating the candidates is the amount of respect they hold for our nation."

This is important. From the point of view of Iran, one of the most antagonistic countries to United States policies and interests in the whole world, there is no differentiation between Obama and Romney, no differentiation between Democrats and Republicans.

The only variable that counts for Iran vis a vis the candidates is their point of view vis a vis Iran. That is an extremely myopic point of view and a very jaded method with which to make analysis of any sort.

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Iran & Steel
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Once again Iran is masterfully getting around sanctions to help buoy herself up and make certain that she remains competitive in the steel market.

Iran is a very large producer of steel. The Islamic Republic produces steel for internal needs and for production, not just for export.

But they need the raw materials. They need coke and coal and metallurgical coal, known in the business as coking coal.

So where are they getting these raw materials? From the Ukraine.

The raw material arrives in Iran via third party intermediaries and foreign banks. It gets shipped to Iran by way of the Black Sea. While sanctions monitors are busy watching for oil and checking out the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian companies are just bringing in the raw materials the other way.

A company can make as much as $25 million a month providing these raw materials to Iran. The important element here is that bringing coal to Iran is not a violation of the sanctions. Selling steel to Iran, now that is a violation.

The EU wants to stop all trade with Iran. But the UN and the US understand the need to provide humanitarian goods. But what happens when those goods make Iran stronger and provide her with the raw materials for a major industry.

As I said, Iran has, again and again and again masterfully gotten around the sanctions.

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Find New Geeks For Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

In today's army, the most valued soldier is the techie. The cyber warrior reigns. This is person we used to call -- the pocket protector guy.

Israel's IDF is no exception. And Israel has one of the best, if not the best, cyber units in the world.

These soldiers need to be different. They need to think outside the box. They are, for the most part, extremely arrogant and very creative. The way one protects a systems is to first spend time, oftentimes a lot of time, finding its vulnerabilities.

The Intelligence Branch of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has made the decision to actively recruit young hackers. They are scouring Israeli high schools for potential warriors. That should be expected.

And they are taking it a step further. The IDF Special Warriors Unit has launched a recruitment drive for the best hackers in the Diaspora Jewish community. Once they are found they will be coaxed and lured to join their patriotic destiny and serve in the Israeli Army.

Another example of thinking out of the box.


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No Guns at Weddings
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last month Saudi Arabia banned shooting guns at weddings. Shooting shotguns at weddings is a long and very popular tradition among tribes not only in Saudi Arabia but also throughout much of the Arab world.

The Saudi government felt that the tradition of shooting bullets into the sky was just too dangerous, hence the new law. But while they are publicizing the ban, they are not really enforcing the new law.

So, for Saudis at least, it should have been no surprise that twenty-six guests attending a recent wedding were electrocuted or burned to death as a result of weapon fire. The gunfire toppled electric wires, the wires hit a metal door, people were electrocuted. A fire also ignited and more guests were killed in the fire.

According to the report all those killed at the wedding feast were from the same tribe.

What a terrible waste of human life. A happy milestone was transformed into a horrific tragedy.

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Conspiracy Theory & Hurricane Sandy
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian supporters of Assad are spreading a conspiracy theory that is so mind boggling that people might actually believe it.

They are saying that Sandy, the hurricane that devastated the United States causing billions upon billions in damages, was the result of a highly sophisticated Iranian weapon.

The group supporting Assad posted a message on their Facebook page saying that Sandy was the work of Iran and that the hurricane was punishment for those who attack Syria.

What makes this conspiracy so different from others is that Iran is placed front and center as the major actor causing the damage in this drama.

Obviously no such weapon exists. But people will believe it and it will weaken the hearts of the opposition. There are people who can actually be convinced into believing that Iran has the ability to alter the power of nature.

Unbelievable, but true.

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Hezbollah Installs Border Cameras
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Lebanese paper just reported that Hezbollah has installed a set of cameras on the border between Israel and Lebanon.

The network of cameras is linked to a control room. From there Hezbollah is monitoring the movements of the Israeli army as they go out on various patrols. They are even monitoring the activities of local farmers.

The news report describes the cameras as being mounted on trees, but I am certain that they are also on the ground and even on the border fence. This would allow maximum vision and the best angles.

The paper also reported that Hezbollah is improving its telephone infrastructure in Southern Lebanon. Land lines are much more difficult to infiltrate than cell phones. So improving the land lines will improve the security of Hezbollah's internal communication.

All of this adds to the already tense environment. We know that Hezbollah has been building their arsenal and even launching Iranian spy drones over Israel. I hope that a way to release the tensions is found before the tensions morph into conflict.

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Gaza Shoots More Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days there have been dozens of rockets shot into Israel from Gaza by Hamas.

A Hamas released video shows six rockets being shot very quickly in rapid succession from the middle of an urban residential area. The rockets seemed to be shot by a single rocket launcher capable of multiple rockets.

This kind of attack makes it very difficult for Israel to retaliate against the launchers simply because the rockets have deliberately and intentionally been positioned in the midst of civilians.
Luckily, no Israelis were hurt by these rockets.

But Gazans will be hurt.

Gazans will be hurt in two ways. The first is that Israel will hit back with helicopter gunships and fighter jets. The second and greatest injury to Gazans is the damage that was done to the reputation of Hamas when they publicized the fact that they shoot from populated centers.

That action is absolutely unacceptable in the world in which we live today.

I just hope that the world will condemn these blatant terrorist acts.

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Iran Has Sudan's Back
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Iranian naval ships arrived in Sudan yesterday. The ships are a statement of support. They are a gesture from Iran. They are the Iranian way of saying "Sudan, we have your back."

It all began last week when four mysterious planes attacked and blew up a Sudanese arms factory. Everyone but the CIA has said that the bombers must have been Israeli. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement and I do not anticipate any change in their comments.

Intel on the attack has it that the target was not necessarily the factory but the finished products housed near the factory and which were about to be shipped out to Hamas in Gaza - highly sophisticated weapons could do serious harm to Israel.

At the site when it was bombed were weapons imported from Iran and weapons that had made their way from Libya. In fact, some of those weapons may have been American and may have been given to Libya in order to oust Ghadaffi.

The strike was huge news in the Arabic world. Almost every leader and every media outlet shouted about Israel being a cancer on the region and a country that, on a whim, will launch an attack.

The most important note of this entire issue is not the Iranian ship's arrival. It is the idea that Israel is behind the attack.

If the attack came from Israel, it means Israeli planes flew 1600 kilometers to their target. That is 300 kilometers further than Fordow, the main nuclear underground facility in Iran. That would mean that four planes - three fighter jets and a coordinator plane, made the 1600 kilometer trip, destroyed their target, refueled mid air and safely returned home without being detected.

Believe me, Iran knows all this, the Iranians can do the math.

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A Circus Comes to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian circus is now performing in Gaza. They plan on being there for an entire month.

Although the circus is not a government sponsored show there is no doubt that the Egyptian government approved and even helped them cross the border and set up their tents.

Because of certain issues, the circus is taking on a Gaza-like character. That means that no women from Egypt are in the show because there was great concern that the women would insult the sensitivities of the very religiously conservative Hamas. And because of the problems of bringing lion and a tiger into Gaza presented they, too, remain back in Egypt.

Tickets cost between $5 & $10. That might sound very inexpensive but it is still way too much for the average Gaza resident whose family lives on $2 per day. Over a million and a half people live in Gaza. It is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

The reports were that people came out of the circus smiling and laughing. Since most people living in Gaza have never seen a circus we should not take their critique too seriously. But laughing and smiling is always a positive.

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New Al Qaeda Videos for Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the leader of Al Qaeda, just released part one of eleven videos directed at the people of Egypt. In the videos Zawahiri gives Egyptians advice on how to complete their revolution. Zawahiri is actually an Egyptian.

He advises Egyptians to kidnap Americans: "I ask that all Muslims take prisoner citizens of countries that have attacked Muslims, because our prisoners will not be freed except by force, which is the only language they understand."

"I tell all of you who wish to purge Egypt of social injustice and corruption that the battle is not over." He said that only through victory can the Muslim and Egyptian people "achieve what they want - a government with Sharia law, proud, free and with social justice."

These videos will have an impact. Zawahiri is sending a powerful message to Egyptians and he will spur them on to plan more attacks against the United States. Zawahiri is a favorite son of Egypt's Islamist movement.

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England Says No To Strike on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

England has just said, clearly and categorically, that they will not support a strike against Iran.

The Official Spokeswoman for the British Prime Minister David Cameron said that at this time there is no "clear and present threat," according to the English daily newspaper the Guardian.

She also said: "The government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this moment, though no option is off the table."

This shows a clear and dramatic difference in approach between the rhetoric emerging in the US presidential elections and the attitude and thinking of Great Britain. It is very clear that both US presidential candidates are talking of more effective sanctions - but they have only begun to rattle their sabers.

Then again, it could all be empty rhetoric by the American. It might be that both candidates want to appear strong and unafraid to stand up in the face of Iran's nuclear program ... but rhetoric sometimes becomes reality and England has now publically said that they will not support the reality the United States is proposing.

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Cease Fire in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The ceasefire between rebels in Syria and Syrian forces loyal to Bashar Assad will not hold. Nonetheless, creating that ceasefire is a very important step.

It is important in that this is the first time that both parties have agreed on anything. And once has happened there is a road map for future agreements.

This ceasefire is intended to permit everyone to celebrate the Eid, the three-day Muslim holiday called Eid al Adhah. It starts today and is a celebration of the story described in the 2nd Sura, which mimics Genesis 22. It is the story of Abraham taking Ishmael and binding him as a sacrifice, but in the end the father does not sacrifice his son.

All Muslims celebrate the Eid and it is said that 100 million animals are killed and eaten during these days. Agreeing to the cease fire now is a very significant gesture.

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Problems in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week the supreme court of Iran forbade their president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, from visiting the prison where one of his assistants is being held for insulting the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

And now, the head of the judiciary has publicly chastised Ahmadinejad for even thinking about visiting the prison and for taking his desire to go public.

The judiciary went public saying that the president does not respect or understand the separation of powers. They said that it is unfitting and wrong for the president to go to the prison.

What do we learn from this? We learn that Ahmadinejad is once again getting beaten back from his attempt to totally control the system and run over governmental bureaucracy and other powers in Iran.

We saw Ahmadinejad attack and then beaten back by the parliament and now we are seeing it with the judiciary. These are important lessons that do not bode well for the future of Ahmadinejad as president of Iran.

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Lebanon Mimics Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is now experiencing the overflow of Syrian tensions. What is happening in Syria is happening in Lebanon now, but to a lesser extent.

Here is what is happening: In Tripoli four people were killed and dozens were wounded in a conflict between Sunnis and Alawites. That is an extract replica of Syrian tensions. Assad is an Alawite and his supporters are Alawites - but the rebels are Sunnis.

There's more: A senior intelligence officer was recently killed in Lebanon. Hezbollah has speculated that he was killed in order to spread the seeds of instability.

There is no doubt that the future of Lebanon is hanging in the balance and that both Syria and Iran have great influence over what happens there next. But so do Western forces - and so do Islamic forces.

Every group has special needs that they are imposing on the Lebanese people. Everyone wants what they want, and everyone is ignoring the obvious reality which is that the people of Lebanon need to learn to live harmonious lives together.

Lebanon has a history if civil war. When the different factions within Lebanon cannot work together they resort to fighting and killing each other. In Lebanon, history is repeating itself.

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Egypt Convicts Journalist for Dissing Pres
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court sentenced a TV anchorman to four months in prison for insulting the president of Egypt. Tawfiq Okasha was convicted but can still appeal his sentence.

Okasha, who owns Fareen TV network, has denied that he called Morsi a murder - but the court did not see it that way. Okasha's crime took place in the context of a broadcast during which he appeared to be offering commentary and in which he suggested that Morsi, the new president of Egypt, not go to the funerals of those soldiers killed by terrorist.

The implication was that were Morsi to attend the funerals the mourners would lynch him. The court saw this as an insult.
The person who brought the suit explained that Morsi is the new president of Egypt and if you insult Morsi, you insult Egypt.

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Jordan Arrests Al Qaeda Cell
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan prevented a huge terror attack. Eleven people, all members of an al Qaeda cell, have been arrested.

Jordanian media is clearly calling the suspects Islamic radicals and militants whose objective is to disrupt, destabilize and destroy Jordan. The terrorists were planning to attack Western diplomatic missions and Western style shopping malls and shopping areas in Jordan.

This is the same organization that perpetrated the horrific simultaneous attacks in November 2005 when they bombed three Western hotels, killing 60 people.

It seems clear that this time the group was trying to recreate the Benghazi attack in Libya in which they stormed the United States consulate killing US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other US embassy personnel.

According to official media, the now apprehended terrorists were planning to shoot rockets at the United States and British embassies in Jordan. The area around the embassies is full of foreigners and any of the buildings in the neighborhood would have made a good target.

At the same time another terrorists team was going to attack shopping centers housing Western stores and frequented by Western patrons. These are also stores where local Jordanians shop. Those locals are also targets of these terrorists because they are Jordanians who desire to assimilate into Western culture.

This arrest was an extremely important act. It both saved the lives of many people and kept the relationship between the West and Jordan very strong.

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Libya Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

By all rights, Libya should once again be front page news. Not just because the presidential debate tomorrow night will focus on foreign policy. But more if not equally important is the reality that right now Libya is on the brink of civil war.

This morning 26 people were killed and over were 200 wounded in battles between militias loyal to former dictator Ghadaffi and official forces.

There are 140 tribes in Libya. Several get along and there are long standing treaties between them. But most do not get along. Most of them join forces only in order to protect themselves from other tribes whom they despise more than the tribes they made a pact with.

All the militias are brokered by way of families and tribal power, money and arms.

The only way to resolve the conflict engulfing Libya and to create stability is not by creating equality among the tribes but rather by supporting one set of tribal leaders over another.

It is the opposite of democracy but it is the reality. Only after a single, recognized, strong, accepted leader emerges will that new Libyan leadership have the power and capability to confront outside forces --- like al Qaeda.

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Emir of Qatar To Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza is getting a very important guest. That is, at least according to MAAN an official Palestinian news agency.

MAAN quotes Egyptian sources as saying that they have been informed that next week the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, will visit Gaza.

The Emir will visit with family and be accompanied by a large delegation.

All this comes after an announcement last week that the Emir will be giving Gaza $250 million dollars to help rebuild the infrastructure of Gaza.

This is the first visit of any Arab head of state to Gaza since Hamas took over in a coup in January of 2007.

Gaza is controlled by Hamas and many moderate Arab leaders have a strange and uncomfortable relationship with them. On the one hand they want to help Hamas, especially by side with Hamas against Israel. But on the other hand they do not want to support Hamas against the Palestinian Authority which is more mainstream.

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Iran's Plan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has denied it, but the international press has been abuzz for the past few days. Der Spiegel broke the story.

Iran has a secret plan to initiate an oil spill in the Straits of Hormuz.

The spill would contaminate the water and force the Straits to close. Then Iran would use the situation as leverage and make promise to clean up the environmental mess - and the West would lift the sanctions against them.

All the while the cost of oil would sky rocket. Der Spiegel said that the plan was called "Dirty Waters."

It makes sense but it will not work - Saddam Hussein attempted the same trick.

The oil spill scenario is something that the West has already considered. A much more likely scenario would be for Iran to strike tankers and military ships with their tiny, mini submarines and with their fleet of speedy rubber craft.

When that happens there is almost no way to trace source of the attack and it can take weeks to clear out a disabled tanker or war ship.

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Debate - Unsportsmanlike Conduct
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The 2nd presidential debate was at time very tense, it even made me uncomfortable watching it at certain moments.

Americans tend to enjoy debates that are properly conducted, where the sides show respect for each other. That did not happen last night. The debaters appeared unsportsmanlike at times and it was, simply put, not nice. According to the rules that they both agreed to, the candidates were not even supposed to speak to or address one another.

In presidential debates, the more details are dispensed the less people are interested. People want platitudes and simplicity. They cannot understand numbers and have no interest in the details.

Simple points win in a debate, complicated points leave people wondering. Repetition after repetition after repetition does not hammer home a point, it makes people restless.

The debaters practiced the details, but the simplest lines were the most successful.

Like when Romney said to the audience "you know better than that" he was saying, you are living it you know the president is wrong.

Or like when Obama said "I find that offensive," referring to Romney suggesting that he campaigned instead of dealing with Libyan crisis.

Americans like a fight - a fair fight, and the 2nd presidential debate did not follow the rules.

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Attempted Assassination in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday on the website of Al Ahram, an official Egyptian newspaper, a very telling story was reported.

According to the report an assassination plot against new president Mohammed Morsi was foiled. The web report supplies the name and details about the person who was arrested. He is a 28 year old man from Alexandria named Mohib Ajar.

On the website it says that when authorities searched Ajar's home they found the president's itinerary for his visit Alexandria along with maps, routes and information about bomb making.

The telling part is that this was reported. And as many details as were given, that's how many details were omitted.

Egyptian security is sending a message. They are letting everyone know that they are aware of threats and that they are dealing with them. This was a deliberate announcement.

It was a warning: do not plot an assassination, you will be found out and you will be punished.

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New Al Qaeda Tape
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the new head of al Qaeda, has released another video.

This video, like the video released last month, calls for actions against the United States. Last month's video by Zawahiri was probably the trigger that set the Libyan attack that assassinated the US ambassador Stevens and three others.

He is probably hoping for a similar strike now also.

In his message Zawahiri praised all those protesting and all those fighting insults against Mohammed. He called for zealots to "continue their opposition to American crusader Zionist aggression against Islam and Muslims".

Zawahiri refers to the United States as a Crusader and as the Zionist Crusader. The term Crusader resonates with all Muslims. According to their definition, it means that the US and Israel are only a short distraction in the history of Islam.

Like the Crusaders, Zawahiri is saying, the United States along with Israel will be defeated and forgotten.

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Muslim Brotherhood Rabid Anti Semites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed Badie is the head of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. He was elected to the position in 2010. His views are the views of the Brotherhood - and they are biting.

Recently, the Muslim Brotherhood sent out an announcement with his insight and posted the message on their website.

Badie issued a scathing attack against Jews. He said that Jews were spreading corruption and that Zionist only knows force.

"It is time for the Muslim ... to unite for the sake of Jerusalem and Palestine after the Jews have increased the corruption in the world, and shed the blood of (Muslims)."

The United States has made no comment about this diatribe. The new president of Egypt has said nothing.

Re Egypt: The significance is that these messages are playing to the extremes in Egypt and Morsi is from the same party as Badie and to disavow them would be difficult.

Re the US: The US cannot do business with a country and a leader that does not at least attempt to control this kind of racism when it is being used to galvanize the people is such a demagogic fashion.

I am waiting for the United States to respond. I am not holding my breath.

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Bahrain Protests
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Riots and tear gas have again rocked the Arab island country of Bahrain.

Bahrain is a tiny island country located in the Persian Gulf. It is a very rich country that suffers from Sunni/Shiite strife. The ruling class in Bahrain is Sunni and composes about 30% percent of the population while the vast majority, some 70%, is Shiite.
33 islands make up the country. The entire population is 1.2 million. The largest of the islands, called Bahrain Island, is a mere 34 miles long and 11 miles wide.

Since February of 2011 there have been tensions, protests and riots that have at times become violent. The Shiites want a role to play - but they are in a bind. Their backers are Iran and they do not wish to replicate another Iran in Bahrain.

The Shiite demonstrators want an equal footing with the Sunnis. One of the reasons the crisis began in 2011 is that Shiites were removed from their positions as civil servants, officers and professionals in the army because Sunni leadership was afraid that Shiites were gaining too much power.

The tensions continue and they will not stop. Local leaders have arrested Shiite organizers while Iran continues to support the demonstrations. The demonstrators have been fueled by the Arab spring.

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Drone from Hezbollah Made by Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now clear that Hezbollah launched the drone that the Israelis shot down last week. The announcement came directly from Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah who said that they sent it and that the Iranians made it.

The drone was in the air over Israel for at least 15 minutes before it was downed.

There have been rumors that the aerial vehicle was a RQ-170 also known as the Beast of Kandahar. It is a bat drone, so named because it is almost 15ft long with a wingspan of over 39ft. It looks like a monster bat.

This is the type of drone that Iran hijacked out of the sky. Originally made by Lockheed Martin, Iranian engineers reverse engineered it.

Believe me when I tell you that whatever kind of drone it is, American drone specialists were on the first plane to Israel to reverse engineer it in order to determine the technology the Iranians were able to cull from their bat drone.

The big question is not what Iran saw via the drone but how the drone was controlled and how the material was transmitted back to base.

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Elections in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The word is that Israel may be moving toward new elections. Even Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that elections will probably take place in early 2013.

New elections will help Netanyahu and Netanyahu only. No one can challenge his popularity and no party will come close to getting the support that the prime minister and his Likud party have.

During the past few weeks, as discussions on potential elections emerged, people and parties across the board have paraded themselves before the PM trying to position themselves to ride the wave of Bibi's power and popularity.

If elections are held early next year Bibi Netanyahu and his Likud party will gain - and almost every other party will lose.

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Iran Converts Uranium to Powder
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A newly released UN report indicates that Iran has taken about 30% of their highly enriched uranium and turned it into powder.

Once it has been turned into powder it is almost impossible to transform the enriched uranium back into usable uranium, suitable for a weapon.

This move will be viewed as a major step towards appeasing the West and demonstrating that Iran has taken a positive step toward accommodation. It will help reduce tensions and slow down the pressure to strike against Iran.

Once again, we are witness to a masterful play on the part of Iran.

Iran is acting and reacting to pressure and sanctions. This move proves that Iranians have many available options. This is just one option - an option that most analysts had not even begun to think about.

I am certain that Iran has a number of other moves just like this one. And each of those moves will push back any move by the West to strike Iran.

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Egypt Celebrates Victory in 1973
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt celebrated their victory over Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Egyptians refer to this war as the "October War."

This is an annual event and it is not an isolated commemoration. Monuments to the Egyptian victory over Israel in 1973 are displayed all over the country.

So, what is the big deal here? This celebration reveals much about how the Arabic world sees reality. You see, Egypt did not win the war in 1973.

Israel won that war. Egypt was so miserably defeated that Cairo, the Egyptian capital, was entirely encircled by Israel under the leadership of General Ariel Sharon.

Israel could have captured the city. They did not. They did not because they could never have policed and controlled Cairo.

How then could Egypt celebrate a victory that never happened? The answer lies in the Arab mindset. The Arabic world has difficulty understanding how they can lose to Israel - the interloper, the outsider, a non-Arab, non-Muslim country.

The Arab world cannot accept that Jews won and the great Arab nation lost. So they simply transformed the loss into a victory. And now they celebrate.

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Christians Attacked in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

For months now I have been shouting about what is happening to Christians in Egypt. They have been shot at. They have been chased out of their homes. Their homes and churches have been burned. They have been exiled.

The only reason for these horrific attacks is that they are Christians living in a Muslim state.

Today, literally minutes after Egypt's new President Mohammed Morsi promised protection to the Christians in Rafah, they were once again attacked.

Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic Christian home in Rafah with machine guns. They sprayed the entire house with bullets.

It is hard for us to understand why this is happening. Why are Christians being threatened and killed in Egypt and why are they not being protected?

It should be understood that in the Middle East minority rights are not protected by the state. Even if it is illegal to attack minorities seldom are they protected from the Muslims masses.

Minorities live in a balance and in fear that at any moment they can be attacked.

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Confilct Over the Hajj
By Micah Halpern

October 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a huge religious and political conflict.

The conflict surrounds the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca. In that part of the world, one cannot differentiate between religious and political issues.

Saudi Arabia deported 1000 female Nigerian pilgrims from Mecca. The Saudis claim that the women were not chaperoned. After the issue had been resolved, Saudi Arabia airlifted all of those women who were deported and wanted to return to Mecca, back to Mecca. And they brought back even more.

It was a great insult to Nigeria done without consulting Nigeria. For the Saudis, it was a swift bureaucratic move. For Nigeria, it was an act of humiliation. Saudi Arabia publicly embarrassed Nigeria and their pilgrims, known as Hajji.

A new policy also emerged, one that the Nigerians agree with. The new policy as articulated by the Saudi National Hajj Commission says that:

"Female pilgrims who are above 45 years of age can perform the annual Hajj without guarantor, while those below the 45 years should have their guarantors indicated in their passports in the name of their respective Pilgrims Welfare Board's managements."

In the end 23,000 Nigerian Hajjis were brought to Mecca after this conflict as a peace offering to Nigeria.

For the time being the conflict between Nigeria and Saudi Arabia is on hold.

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Abortion Advisers Go to Morocco
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Flotillas have become a hot item in the guerrilla theater of international politics.

Women on Waves is an abortion advocacy program. They sail into places where abortion is illegal, counsel women and deliver day after pills that result in the abortion of fetuses. They engage in abortion education.

The group had been visiting Catholic countries including Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Now they have set their sights on the Arab country of Morocco where performing an abortion is punishable by 20 years in prison.

Morocco blockaded the port with warships to prevent Women on Waves from entering on their large ships. But Women on Waves persisted and they slipped in by way of the port of Smir. They tricked the Moroccan navy and sent a small yacht instead of their much large vessel to enter the port. The activists never left the ship and did not attempt to step foot in Morocco.

Obviously there are many clandestine and illegal abortions performed in Morocco. Like most Arab countries, Morocco is very conservative when it comes to these issues. They do not want it spoken about in public and family matters like this fall under the purview of Islamic law and tradition.

This flotilla will certainly alienate Moroccans on the street - even if the people themselves have participated in illegal abortions.

Private is private and what is done in private is neither done nor spoken about in public. In public, Moroccans toe the Muslim line.

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Iran Claims Hit By Cyber Attack
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran admitted that they were victim to an aggressive cyber attack on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The admission is unusual and was broadcast on local TV. Iran does not like to admit that their infrastructure is exposed to soft attacks like hacking and viruses.

Mehdi Akhavan Behabadi who is the head of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace, a new committee organized to try to defend Iran from these hacks said "we had a heavy attack against the country's infrastructure and communications companies which has forced us to limit the Internet."

He continued, "All of these attacks have been organized. And they have in mind the country's nuclear, oil, and information networks."

Iran is constantly being attacked. Iran also operates the largest internet filter in the world blocking out whatever they deem to be improper. And recently there has been a huge uproar among Iranians because their government has been blocking Gmail.

This admission could be a simple deflection - nothing having to do with Iran is what it appears to be on the surface. The Iranians are blaming the US and Israel for cyber attacks like Stuxnet and Flame and DUQU.

So yes, there are viruses and there are hackers hacking away at Iran. But this announcement could also easily be Iran's communication ministry deflecting responsibility for taking it too far and filtering their internet too much.

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HRW Attacks Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Human Rights Watch published a report today, it is entitled Abusive System: Failures of the Criminal Justice System in Gaza.

This report is a scathing critique of Hamas. It records how now, five years after Hamas ousted the Palestinian Authority from Gaza and control the area, they conduct midnight arrests, engage in prolonged torture and do not permit people to see lawyers for weeks and months after arrest - and all that just should not happen.

The report goes into great detail on how Hamas security police torture their victims.

Human Rights Watch has shored up its credibility. For years HRW relentlessly criticized Israel and turned a blind eye toward abuses elsewhere.

I for one was not surprised by the reports results. I was pleased to see that HRW finally realizes and is addressing the Hamas problem.

These abuses take place regularly. The report is only 43 pages long, but at least it comes forward and holds Hamas accountable for countless deaths and brutal torture.

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Iran Shuts Down Gmail -Huge Backlash
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Iran decided to shut down Google and Gmail. The decision came in response to the YouTube video mocking the Prophet Mohammed.

There are 32 million Gmail accounts in Iran. That is an unbelievable number given that the total population of Iran is 75 million. Iran is also one of the top 20 countries of users of Google.

People are starting to complain and the Iranians will probably lift the ban. Actually, it is highly placed officials who are complaining. Even members of parliament have complained to the communication ministry because they no longer have access to email.

In addition, people are spending huge amounts of money to scam the blockade and end around it using proxy sites that then deliver Gmail and YouTube service.

This may be just another small nail in the coffin of Iran. There is a basic rule in oppressive regimes. Do not mess with people's email. Read it, tap it, but do not deny it.


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Morsi Tries To Assume Regional Leadership
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The lines have been drawn in the Middle East. Countries are assuming their positions. Tensions are on the rise.

Mohammed Morsi, the new president of Egypt, visited Turkey yesterday. He made it very clear that Egypt and Turkey are united against Syria and for the Palestinians.

He said: "Our common goal is to support other people who are standing up against their administrations or regimes, to support Palestine and the Syrians in their efforts."

This statement by Morsi draws tensions between those who support the Assad regime - principally Iran - and those who support the rebellion.

Morsi was also underscoring tensions with Israel. In this case, by saying that they are united in support of Palestinians he means that Egypt and the Palestinians are united in their confrontation with and isolation of Israel.

All of this sets a tone. By making these statements Morsi is trying to re-position Egypt back into the role of regional leader.

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Israel to Help Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Chemical Company's "Aqua Tab," a simple tablet that purifies water and makes it drinkable, will now be used in Syria.

Syria has been in a recent crisis situation over the lessening amount of fresh water available to them and this will solve the problem.

UNICEF asked for the tablets and Israel will sell them to Syria through their Irish subsidiary. The deal needed to be approved by the Israeli government because it meant, in essence, delivering goods to an enemy.

The Israeli Minister of Economics approved the deal for three reasons:

#1: it was for humanitarian purposes
#2: it was being provided by a 2nd party
#3: it was being given to UNICEF and not Syria.

The Syrian water situation will not be totally solved by the Aqua Tab, but it will alleviate the crisis and permit people to have basic water until their own infrastructure problems can be resolved.

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UN Score Card
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We need a playbill to follow all the scene changes and dialogue that has captured center stage at the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

One set of issues worth watching and monitoring, is of course, the dialogue between Netanyahu and Abbas. Even more interesting than the interplay between these two leaders are the various reactions to their interplay.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas spoke about the need to resume talks in order to advance an agreement.

Hamas was livid. They could not believe that Abbas addressed the world assembly and called for dialogue and talks with Israel. Hamas called these comments destructive and said Abbas was going against the interests of the Palestinian people. That the real emphasis should be on unity talks between Palestinians.

The Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt declared that there cannot be talks with Israel. And newly elected president of Egypt Mohammed Morsi said that there will be no talks with Israel. Morsi, it goes without saying, must toe the line of the Brotherhood.

The comments are ridiculous. Practically speaking Egypt is talking with Israel even at the highest levels. But to make a public display of it would tarnish the image of the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Christians Forced Out in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Several days ago in the Sinai Egyptian town of Rafah the Christians living there received a note on their doorsteps. "You Have Two Days to Leave or Else" read the piece of paper.

After two days militants sped through Rafah on motorcycles firing machine guns. It was frightening. There was property damage but no one was hurt.

The Christian leaders of Rafah ran to the newly appointed regional governor. He told the Christian leaders that he would happily facilitate their relocation to the nearby city of Al Arish. He did not offer to try to protect them or even investigate the threats.

Over the past year the ancient beautiful church of Rafah has been firebombed and looted. It has been nearly razed to the ground.

The church dates itself to the time of Jesus but its structure and design is Crusader. It survived a thousand years but could only withstand a few month of Muslim Brotherhood rule.

It is unclear if any Christians remain in Rafah anymore. But this is a very foreboding sign.


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Arab Spring in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab Spring might have arrived in Gaza.

Yesterday over 500 people rallied and demanded that Hamas step down. The protests were a result of the tragic death of a 3 year old baby burned to death in a fire caused by candles due to the electricity blackouts.

Hamas blames the electric blackouts on Egypt.

It is against the law in Gaza to protest against the Hamas government. So when 500 people gather in the streets to call for ousting them, that is big news.

This story should be covered around the world. Let's see if Arab news agencies, especially Arabic TV, pick it up.

If this takes hold and protests continue it just could cause an ousting of Hamas.

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Subway Ad Shouts Defeat Jihad
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is a new ad on the subways and buses in New York City. It will run for a month. The ad has already been running in San Francisco.

The ad reads: "In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel/Defeat Jihad."
In July the MTA lost a federal case after they refused to post it.

The ad is now in 10 subway stations.

While this ad certainly articulates strong ideas, it is not offensive in and of itself. What it does is draw a line between Western support for Israel and the terrible violence and murder that has emerged in the Middle East.

The ad was created before the 9-11 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.

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Hamas Boycotts Israeli Fruit
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza has banned the import of Israeli fruit - with the exception of bananas and apples. The ban has increased the cost of fruit by 100%.

The already tough economic conditions in Gaza have now become even more difficult because Hamas wants to boycott Israel. Even fruits like grapes that grow in Gaza have spiked by 50%.

This boycott will increase prices and in the end, it will force people to starve.

Hamas Director of Marketing in the Ministry of Agriculture Tasheen al Saqqa said, in response to the change in policy, that --- "We are people under blockade and we should have the culture of resistance." "Why should someone have all kinds of fruits on his table?"

Hamas wants to hurt Israel by closing Gaza as a market for fresh fruits.

This is very revealing insight into their leadership and point of view. In reality the boycott is hurting the people of Gaza much more than it hurts Israel. The market for Israel is a paltry $26 million.

Losing the fruit will hurt Gaza badly and affect Israel almost not at all.

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French Arrest 2 For Plan Beheading
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

French police arrested two people yesterday for plotting to behead the editor of the satirical magazine that published caricatures of the prophet Mohammed.

The suspects had knives and posted demands and took claim for the plan to behead editor Charlie Hebdo.

This should not be a surprise. This magazine is notorious for lampooning anything and everything. It was not the first time they lampooned the Prophet. Lampoon and caricatures are the medium that Hebdo regularly uses.

Security has been higher than normal at the magazine lately. But the reality is that neither Hebdo nor his publication will be intimidated by threats. They believe that making fun of situations is their editorial contribution to political discourse in France.

This is not a debate over issues of censorship and free press. It is well within the purview of this or any other journal to raise these questions - and they will certainly continue to do so.

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Kissinger Says - No Israel in 10 Years
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week NY Post gossip columnist Cindy Adams ran a very short item which knocked my socks off.

The gossip queen of New York City quoted a conversation with Henry Kissinger. Kissinger needs no introduction, for the past few decades the free world has hung on to almost every word, certainly every diplomatic comment, he has made.

I found this particular comment to be more than disturbing. On September 17th Adams wrote: "Reported to me, Henry Kissinger has stated - and I quote the statement word for word: 'In 10 years, there will be no more Israel.'

I repeat: 'In 10 years, there will be no more Israel.'" Even uttering the words is almost beyond fathomable.

There was no real context for the quote other than to say that given the situation with Iran and what at the Democratic National Convention regarding their platform and Israel, Kissinger felt compelled to tell Adams his point of view.

Yes, Israel is confronting great risks and Iran's potential for nuclear weapon is one of them. And there are certainly forces on the fringe of the Democratic Party not friendly to Israel. But making that leap and predicting that Israel will be destroyed is very dangerous and even irresponsible.

People listen to Kissinger. People - both people on the street and people in position to make important decisions trust his analysis.

Given what the former secretary of state, Nobel Peace Prize winner and diplomat par excellence has said, why would anyone invest in or aid Israel to the tune of billions of dollars per year as we do, if there is no future there beyond a single decade.

Even if he believed what he said, it was wrong to say. Certainly, dropping this bomb shell to a gossip columnist, as credible as Cindy Adams is, was inappropriate.

Self fulfilling prophecies is not just a throw away phrase.

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No Signs of Change in Libya
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

More than a thousand people took to the streets yesterday in
Benghazi, Libya. They were demanding that the Islamic militias put down their weapons.

The protesters also shouted that the government should force the militias to follow the law and disarm.

There is little chance of that happening.

Libya is composed of 140 tribes and each of them is armed. Each tribe needs weapons to defend itself against other tribes. Embedded in the tribes are subgroups - including al Qaeda affiliates like those who attacked the US consulate and murdered the United States ambassador to Libya.

The fact that there was a protest like that in Benghazi is a positive sign. But do not read too much into it. The attack on the US consulate was also a sign of the times in Libya. And so is the fact that the militia will not lay down their weapons.

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30 Countries Train Near Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Thirty nations are participating in naval maneuvers in and around the Straits of Hormuz. The focus of the exercises is to detect and be able to defend against underwater mines and against mines that may be placed on ships by hostile forces.

This is the biggest naval maneuver of this sort in history.

The admiral in charge of the US 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral John W. Miller, announced that all these countries are committed to keeping the shipping lanes of the Straits of Hormuz open to international shipping and make certain that the oil keeps flowing.

Thirty nations working together. That's how important the Straits of Hormuz is. That's how crucial the oil that travels through those Straits is to every one of us.

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Hajj - Can Syria Attend
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Arabic news was filled with coverage of the Syrians saying that Saudi Arabia has denied Syrians access to Mecca for the Holy pilgrimage Hajj. The official Syrian new agency SANA reported that Saudi Arabia refused to permit Syrians from the Hajj because of the way the Assad regime has responded to the uprising.

"The Syrian Supreme Hajj Committee has banned this season's pilgrimage because the Saudi Ministry of Hajj did not sign the pilgrimage agreement on time, although the committee met all required procedures."

The Arabic world was alight with the question as to whether the Hajj should be political and whether Saudi Arabia should force its own political point of view on those who will make the pilgrimage.

And then, within hours the Saudi Ministry of the Hajj released a statement saying that Syrian Muslims were indeed welcome as always this year, too.

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Carbon Fiber Blocked from Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The international community is a gearing up for a serious discussion about Iran's nuclear program.

Next week the EU 3+3 will meet to discuss matters (that means 3 from the EU --- France, Germany, Britain + 3 --- China, Russia, United States). More than that, the Iranian nuclear program will be the topic touched on by almost every speaker representing a Western country during the course of the UN General Assembly.

Western countries are not alone in the quest to halt Iran's nuclear development. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recently stopped a ship and confiscated its cargo of carbon fiber headed to Iran.

Carbon fiber is used to make a better rotor to spin a centrifuge. It is strong, flexible and can spins effectively and efficiently.

The use of carbon fiber will boost Iran's centrifuge capabilities manifold so stopping its import was extremely important.

Intelligence sources are saying that Iran will be at the stage of 90% uranium refinement within six months. After that the only thing Iran needs to do is perfect their delivery and rocket systems.

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Iran General Admits They Are in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammed Ali Jefari, held a press conference on Sunday.

This is a rare happening in Iran. Jafari is rarely seen in public and even less often does he speak to the press.

Jafari warned Israel not to attack and said that the US was not at all likely to strike Iran. Then he admitted that the al Qods brigade is in Lebanon and in Syria.

This is the first official time that anyone in Iran has admitted that there are Iranian forces stationed in Syria and Lebanon.

He qualified it saying that they are only there to advise and lend aid. But yet, he admitted that they were, indeed, there.

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British are Coming Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Sunday Telegraph of London reported that England is sending an entire armada to the Straits of Hormuz.

All kinds of ships including battleship and aircraft carriers are on their way to support 25 other nations and their naval presence in the narrow stretch of water through which 20-30% of the world's oil flows.

The British are moving their forces into line with the US and other Western powers as a threat against Iran and as Iran flexes her muscles.

If Iran were to actually move from threat to action and begin to close the Straits, countries would be there ready to act to try to keep that important waterway open.

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Secret Weapon Hits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today I saw a piece that showed just how dangerous the war of rhetoric can get. Imagination and technology are very powerful tools.

Iran is suffering from a drought. Iranian news is covering the drought - and blaming it on their enemies. It goes without saying that everyone reading or hearing the reports know that "enemies" means Israel and the US.

Here is the quote attributed to Ahmadinejad.
"The enemy destroys the clouds that are headed towards our country and this is a war Iran will win."

This kind of contrived verbal attack sends another message and it always boomerangs. Ahmadinejad's message to his people reinforces just how technologically advanced and superior the United States and Israel are over Iran. It transforms enemies into super-humans.

In a culture that feeds on conspiracies this is very, very dangerous. The rhetoric and the theories take on a life of their own, they become believable and assumed to be true.

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They Hate the US But Love the Tech
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

As I watch the protests taking place in Iran and the read the banners screaming hatred of the United States and announcing the end of America, I am acutely aware not only of the turmoil, but of an underlying subtext running alongside the banners and announcements.

When the United States tightened sanctions on Iran, Iran fought back by boycotting US products.

The Iranian boycott of US products has not been very successful on big ticket items, but it has affected smaller products.

Coke is still a very hot item in the markets. And the most-in-demand Made in the USA items in Iran are Apple iphones and ipads.

Of course, they need to be hacked so that they can be used on the local Iranian information system, but they are the hottest hits on the market.

While hatred of the United States runs true and deep in Iran, it does not extend to US products and technology. Actually, and this is what makes a serious situation look comical, many of the protest participants are being invited to take part in angry protests aimed at the United States via cell phone technology developed in the United States.

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Obama and Bibi Speak for 1 Hour
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is the public tension that has emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama that grabs media attention while important and successful exchanges go mostly unnoticed.

On Wednesday, the day it was announced that President Obama would tape David Letterman at the very time the Israeli prime minister requested to meet with him, Obama and Netanyahu spoke on the phone for an hour. They spoke about the Iranian threat, they updated one another and they discussed the various options on the table.

Most importantly, they decided to be back in touch and to inform each other of further updates.

It is clear that Obama and Netanyahu do not have good chemistry - but at this level of leadership it is diplomacy rather than chemistry that takes precedence.

In a veiled apology to Israel the US president sent out his traditional Jewish High Holiday blessing yesterday. Obama mentioned reconciliation and spoke of reaching out to right wrongs. "We're called to seek each other out and make amends for those moments when we may not have lived up to our values as well as we should."

To some, this message will sound sincere, others will hear it as patronizing. Listening to the New Year greeting, I cast my vote for sincere.

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EMP Not the Weapon of Choice
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunday Times of London has brought up the secret weapon that Israel might use against the Iranians. It is the EMP or, in long hand, the electromagnetic pulse.

The Sunday Times of London calls the EMP the weapon of choice in an attack against Iran because it is considered non lethal.

The principle behind the EMP is that a huge microwave or gamma wave crashes and burns every electronic element in Iran. Every machine that operates on electricity and battery would be fried rendering the Iranians powerless in the face of an Israeli attack.

The Times piece focused on the gamma ray. It is highly unlikely that Israel would use a nuclear ray. And to my mind, at this point, it is unlikely that Israel would use the EMP - period. They have much more precise electronic jamming and disabling weapons. The Israelis could easily shut down all phone, computer, internet and other communications without using the EMP.

The EMP would take out hospitals and pacemakers. It would knock out the water supply and the sewage. There would be crises in the streets and a huge shortage of food and supplies. Within hours Iran would be thrust into internal anarchy and mayhem.

This would not be Israel's objective. Israel's fight is not with the Iranian people. Israel's goal is to cripple or delay Iran's nuclear development.

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Terrorist Returns to Court
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmad Saadat, was the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the PFLP. He was arrested for planning the successful assassination of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi at a Jerusalem hotel in October 17, 2001.

Saadat was tried in a military court. He is now serving a 30 year term for his role in the assassination and for heading a terrorist organization.

Saadat was, once again, brought to court. This time he was there as part of the evidence stage in a civil trial brought by the family of Keren Shatasky who was murdered in a terror attack in Karnei Shomron in 2002.

The trial has been ongoing since 2002. It started in Washington and is now gathering more evidence in Israel. The charge is that the PA enabled the PFLP and provided the PFLP money, weapons and information with which was used by the PFLP to perpetrate their attacks - murdering Keren and many others.

Saadat refused to accept the jurisdiction of the court. He did not answer any questions, he just flashed the V sign for victory.

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Iran's Rial Falls 7%
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The rial, the currency of Iran, fell 7% in a single day. It happened yesterday and then picked up a little toward the end of the day. The damage to the currency was still dramatic.

Over several days in January the rial took a similar hit. This current drop in value can be blamed on the potential for further anti nuclear sanctions against Iran by the United States and the West.

Some background: I am referring to the street rate of the rial against the dollar, not the official rate. The street rate is a more true representation of the value of currency. The official rate, which is double that value, shows not the real worth of the currency, but rather, what the official government thinks it to be worth.

That explains why the street rate was about 24,300 rials to a dollar and the official rate was 12,260 rials to a dollar.
The name "rial" comes from the Spanish "real" which was the Spanish currency that represented the "rey" of the ruler/king. After the Iranian revolution it took years to mint new currency. The Shah's face was on the bills for as long as a decade.

Today all the currency in Iran has the picture of the Ayatollah Khomeni, leader of the Islamic revolt.


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UN GA Focus on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The schedule of speakers for the United Nations General Assembly has been made public. There are no real surprises in the lineup - it is the timing of the speeches that is important.

No doubt about it, almost everyone of import and significance addressing the GA will focus in some part on Iran and their nuclear aspirations.

US President Barack Obama will speak on opening day, September 25. President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will speak on Wednesday the 26 which, significantly, is also Yom Kippur. And Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak the next day on the 27th.

Scheduling Ahmadinejad's speech for Yom Kippur is a sure way of trying to ratchet down tensions, public anger and protests against the Iranian president. Very few Jews will forgo their fast, synagogue prayers or family time to attend a protest at the UN in NYC on the holiest day of the Jewish year.

That said, the prospect of the speech Ahmadinejad is about to give may become the most important and popular material for Rabbi's pulpit sermons. Rabbi's sermons will replace protests. In the end, that may well be an effective educational and leadership tool.

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Iran Announces Elections for 6/14/2013
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced that presidential elections will take place June 14, 2013.

The most important element in this announcement is that the current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, cannot seek reelection. The constitution of Iran prevents any candidate from serving more than two terms and Ahmadinejad has had his two.

The last Iranian election was in 2009. The lead up to the election and the immediate aftermath caused tremendous upheaval. That period is now known as the Green Revolution. Tens of thousands of Iranians swarmed the streets and many more silently supported a change in regime and challenged the results of the election.

Most of all those candidates who opposed Ahmadinejad have since been arrested and placed under house arrest. Contrary to popular conceptions in the United States and in the West, almost all the opposing candidates were even more extreme than Ahmadinejad.

This upcoming election will pit supporters of Ahmadinejad against more radical factions. But even then, the only real voice, the only voice that counts is that of the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamanei.

Whichever candidate the Grand Ayatollah taps will be the next president of Iran. It doesn't even pay to count the popular vote. That is how elections are conducted in Iran.

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US Spies on Syiran Border
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Associated Press has reported that the United States is bolstering its presence on the Syrian Turkish border. The report explains that the new manpower positioned on the Turkish side of the divide is composed of spies.

The job of an intelligence operative, aka spy, is multi dimensional.

In this case they are there to advise and help the rebels who are fighting Bashar Assad's better armed and better trained official forces. The spies are also there to monitor how al Qaeda is infiltrating into the rebel forces.

There are reports of as many as 25,000 al Qaeda fighters in Syria fighting against Assad.

That is a huge number given that the total number of rebel fighters is only between 60,000 and 70,000 strong.

Spies try to do their work undercover, that is, without anyone knowing who they really are and what they are really doing. News outlets do their work by investigation and uncovering what is supposed to be kept secret and hidden. Hopefully, the US spies will carry out their jobs as well as AP carried out theirs.

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Putting God Back in to the DNC
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After removing Jerusalem and God from the Democratic platform both are back in good standing.

The new platform reads: "Jerusalem is and will remain the capital of Israel." And: "The parties have agreed that Jerusalem is a matter for final status negotiations. It should remain an undivided city accessible to people of all faiths."

In a statement read by Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz the correction was explained. She said: "The platform is being amended to maintain consistency with the personal views expressed by the President and in the Democratic Party platform in 2008."

God was returned to the platform echoing exactly the 2008 language with the lines: "we need a government that stands up for the hopes, values and interests of working people and gives everyone willing to work hard the chance to make the most of their God-given potential."

The mistake was taking them out. They were not returned because of Republican outcry or Israel or AIPAC. No one could actually say who took them out and who had the final say in the platform.

It is clear that Jerusalem and God were reinstated in the Democratic platform because it was wrong to take them out and the masses i.e. voters wanted them back in.

There is always a bottom line.

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20,000 Cyber Attacks a Day
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Electric Company (IEC) is attacked between 10,000 and 20,000 times a day. That's right, a day.

The electric company is a good, ripe target for cyber terrorists and cyber attackers. If the electricity of Israel is compromised, the entire country is in danger. That means everything from water and hospitals to defense systems and planes.

One would think that most of these attacks against Israel would come from the greatest enemy of Israel today, i.e. Iran. But that would be an incorrect assumption.

Iranian attacks on Israel number only 100 - 200 per day. That could be the work of a single hacker or of a few teenagers. It is hardly a massive cyber offensive by Iran. It certainly is not a dedicated team of high level mathematicians and computer scientists attempting to hack into Israel's soft underbelly.

Where do most of the 10,000 to 20,000 daily attacks come from? Most of the attacks come from China, Russia and North Korean. When you think about it that makes much more sense.

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Assad Says No Talks
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Assad regime in Syria released a statement yesterday saying that there will be no dialogue with the rebels until the opposition fighters are totally destroyed.

This is a critical comment coming right after the rebels released an announcement that in August, 5000 people were killed in the conflict.
The statement by the Assad regime emphasizes that they see the end of the conflict in sight. Clearly, they believe that in the past month they have been extremely successful in putting down the rebels.

Here is the Assad analysis in terms of numbers: If 5000 were killed in August and there are 20,000 - 25,000 al Qaeda fighters plus about 40,000 local fighters, it is only a matter of time before he can eliminate them all.

At this pace and if momentum stays on his side Assad thinks that he will successfully put down the rebellion within the next 5-6 months. He sees that outcome as inevitable unless, of course, there is a huge new influx of fighters or unless the tide of the conflict shifts back to the rebels.

This is part of a significant change in tone and message emanating out of the Assad regime over the past month. And it all has to do with cranking up the use of helicopters and fighter jets to strafe the rebels.

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Iran & N Korea Sign Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 3, 3012

I've Been Thinking:

North Korea and Iran have just signed a Memorandum of Understanding known in diplomatic speak as an MOU. We have been led to believe that this MOU deals with science and technology.

The signing was covered by the Iranian press including the Iranian state TV network. And in Iran you can be certain that whatever appears on state television has been officially sanctioned.

Kim Yong Nam, the second in charge of North Korea, came to Iran and met with the Grand Ayatollah as well as with Ahmadinejad. The MOU was signed as part of the official meeting with the president.

These two nations have mutual interests. Together, North Korea and Iran pose a very significant threat to the West. And they have each developed nuclear technology in defiance of the international community.

Iran has learned from Korea how to confront the West. They saw how Korea continued to successfully develop and test their weapons despite pressure from the US and the UN.

North Korea and Iran are allies. Allies like this signal a great danger for the free world.

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Iran China Conflict over Gas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Three years ago a consortium from China and Iran agreed to mutually build and share a liquid natural gas conversion processor.
China was to put up $2.6 billion and the two countries would reap the profits.

Three years later, Iran is frustrated with China. The money was just coming too slowly. So the deal is off and Iran is going it alone.

This was reported on Sunday by MEHR news agency which is an official mouthpiece of the Iranian government.

Iran was hoping that a deal like this with China would immediately create a market for their liquid natural gas and keep everything in a closed circle. That way, their production, conversion, transport and sale would all be kept just between China and Iran.

Now Iran will have this new factory join the other few factories they have for converting gas to LNG and selling it on the open market.

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Iran MisTranslates Morsy
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranians are up to their tricks again. They are mistranslating the speeches given at the Non-Aligned Movement Summit.

The mistranslations are deliberate. The Iranians intentionally misrepresent the speakers' points of view and tweak them so that they are in support of Iran's position.

This was particularly the case with the translations of Egyptian President Mors's speech that was broadcast live on TV and radio. This was the first visit to Iran by an Egyptian leader in thrity-one years and the Iranians used Morsy's speech for internal propaganda.
Morsy condemned Assad.

He said that in his speech there was a direct attack against Assad which was translated as "There is a crisis in Syria and we must support the ruling regime in Syria." The exact opposite of what Morsy really said.

The conclusion of Morsy's speech spoke about reforms that should take place without external interference. That section was never even translated.

When Morsy spoke of the Arab Spring it was translated as the Muslim Awakening.

UN Secretary General Ban suffered the same fate. His point of view was marred with mistranslations - especially his mention of the Arab Spring.

Iranian leadership deliberately did this because they want to convey to the Iranian masses that the Islamic world as a whole supports their regime's point of view. They want them to think that Iran is correct. They want to brainwash them into believing that Iran is leading the Islamic world down the correct path.

This is just another form of propaganda. I would guess that when the Egyptian masses find out about the way their leader was played by Iran they will be extremely disappointed with their newfound friend.

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Rabbi Rejects Violence Against Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Daniel Cohen, rabbi of the Israeli settlement community called Bat Ayin, wrote a letter to his community. He appealed to the community members to act properly and in accordance with moral and ethical Jewish values. Rabbi Cohen was referring to a recent incident in which youths from Bat Ayin were arrested for firing bombing a car that resulted in the injuring of six Palestinians Arabs,

He wrote: "We pray that the suspicions against our children are proven false."

That said, Rabbi Cohen went on to condemn any kind of attack. "Such an act is a crime and points to moral degeneration that fails to distinguish between murder and defense, war and terror. Such acts are wrong and reprehensible; they indicate confusion and lack of judgment."

He continued: "Do not [to] be led astray by inflammatory ideas. Build yourselves with Torah and toil. Build this country with hard work and devotion. Join a yeshiva or the army."

"The problem is not the Arabs, but an internal moral debate within the Israeli society."

"Harming Arabs is wrong and detrimental in terms of the debate."

He concluded by saying: "Remember, it's okay to protest the government's - but only legally."

There are many rabbis like Daniel Cohen and there are many more voices of people who not only condemn unjust acts but also teach the values that Cohen is referring to. I do not know the numbers but I hope that the vast majority of rabbis - in Israel and around the world - side with him and not with the bullies and the terrorists who firebomb innocent people as they drive along the road.

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Morsy Wants Nuke Program
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Morsy is in China.

China was the second stop on Morsy's first foreign trip as president -- the first was to Iran. The China trip has been successful. China pledged $200 million in aid.

Morsy was brilliant in his decision to go to China even before he comes to the United States. He is reaching out to world power brokers and enticing them. First Iran, now China and on September 23 he will be in Washington, DC.

Morsy said something very important while in China. He said he was considering reopening the Egyptian nuclear program in an effort to provide clean energy.

That caught my ear.

Egypt is a massive provider of natural gas and oil. They are ions behind on issues of the environment and environmental protection. Why would Egypt want to reopen its nuclear program?

The Egyptian nuclear program was never an electrical alternative. It was always a small and experimental only facility which, over the years, was constantly cited for violations of nuclear safety issues. Now Morsy wants clean energy for Egypt.

This is a progressive sign in the new Egypt, one that we have so far only rarely glimpsed.

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PA Will Not Ask For UN Membership
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Associated Press report from Teheran yesterday said that the Palestinians had withdrawn their bid for a change of status at the United Nations, a bid they were scheduled to make in September at the UN General Assembly.

The appeal was to be part of Palestinian President Abbas' speech and then the plan was for the Secretary General to bring the issue to a vote.

The Palestinians certainly have the votes they would need in the General Assembly to change their status to "non member state." Last year Palestinian leadership attempted to get full membership through the Security Council and failed, this year they were trying a no-fail method.

According to AP the announcement was made by Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Malki during a press conference at the Non-Aligned Movement meeting taking place in Iran.

The assumption is that the Palestinians need to wait until after the US presidential election because a move changing the PA status could have an impact on the US presidential elections and impact the future of the Palestinian statehood.

I think they are wrong. I do not think what happens to the Palestinians will impact the US election, I think they are giving themselves more worth than does the American voting public.

But right or wrong, this decision points clearly and unequivocally to the fact that the Palestinians are squarely in the Obama camp.

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Morsy Appoints Minority Advisers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

President Morsy of Egypt just appointed both a Coptic Christian and a woman to be assistants to the president. The appointments have been anticipated for weeks.

Having a woman and a Christian in his circle of advisers is thought to be an important gesture that will serve to mollify tensions and deflect accusations that the Islamic Brotherhood is taking over the presidency.

The Coptic Christian is Samir Morcos, a man who has dedicated his life to Christian/Muslim dialogue. His official position will be Assistant to the President for Democratic Transition.

The woman is Panikam Sharkawi, a professor of political science at Cairo University. She will serve as Assistant to the President for Political Affairs.

There is no doubt that this is an important step in the new Egypt. Opening up the inner circle to people who are not part mainstream is a significant and crucial political move - especially for Egyptians who are skeptical of the Brotherhood.

It is also a huge and important move announced times for the eve of
Morsy's first official trip to the United States.

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Egypt Convicts But Suspends Sentence
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Egyptian court convicted and sentenced 76 people for plundering and pillaging the Israeli embassy. The trashing of Israel's embassy in Cairo took place last September.

That headline alone is misleading. .It might lead you to think that only 76 people were involved in the razing of the Israeli embassy. But there were thousands. And there were spectacular pictures of thousands of Egyptians reveling as they ripped down the walls of the Israeli diplomatic post.

But only 76 were tried and convicted for assault against diplomatic missions and sabotage.

Seventy-five of them were given one year suspended sentences. And one person named Oma Afifi who was tried in absentia was given a five year sentence. But he is not even in Egypt.

Is this some sort of joke? Are pictures not admissible in Egyptian courts? What message is Egypt sending to thugs who might attack other diplomatic missions?

Suspended sentences hardly make an example of the rioters nor do they help the international diplomat corps feel safe and secure.

Another example of the new Egypt.

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More About Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Reports coming out of the Damascus suburb of Darayah speak of 200 dead bodies killed in execution style.

Darayah was the scene of a three day battle last week that ended with the rebels leaving and the Syrian army taking back the suburb.

The Syrian Army has pointed to the taking back of Darayah and their recent success in Aleppo as the pendulum that is swinging back in their direction. They are saying that they now have the momentum to put down the rebellion.

It is not clear that the analysis of the Syrian army is accurate, but what is certain is that the conflict is not winding down. And that there will most certainly be many more massacres - on both sides.

Massacre is part of the history of conflict in Syria. It has a longstanding tradition not just in early history but in modern history also.

The only time massacres stop in Syria is when a strong power assumes the helm and perpetually holds the threat of further massacre over the people.

We will see.

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Hamas To Visit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Not to be left out, the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, has also received an invite to Iran.

Representing Hamas, Haniyeh will join 120 nations at the Non-Aligned Movement meeting being hosted by Iran. Mosry and Abbas will also be in attendance.

Iran and Hamas have a longstanding relationship. Iran has been a sponsor of Hamas but with certain conditions. At times Iran has suspended their support because of the poor treatment of Shiites under Hamas jurisdiction.

Iran sees Hamas as a tool and a weapon to wield against Israel and against the West. They have never seen Hamas as a state, but there is little to no interaction between the PA's Abbas and Iran.

It seems as if the paradigm might be changing. Hamas is being treated more and more as a state and not simply as competitor to the Palestinian Authority.

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Hezbollah Manuever of 10,000 Fighters
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A report in a government sponsored Egyptian newspaper called al Gomhuria caught my attention yesterday. The report was subsequently described, in detail, on English YNET

The paper reported that Hezbollah just completed three days of maneuvers in the Bequa Valley in Lebanon. The exercises included 10,000 Hezbollah fighters. The operation was observed by Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

Over the three days Hezbollah enacted battles with Israel. They enacted attack strategies, raids and contingency plans for conquering key areas and making certain that local villagers and villages know their role and responsibilities.

The report also referred to 2,000 Hezbollah fighters who were trained for this purpose by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. And they wrote that Iran has made it clear to Hezbollah that they must get involved and attack Israel if Israel strikes Iran.

This is a very serious set of circumstances and it must be watched very carefully. Believe me, Israel watched the satellite footage and has begun to assess Hezbollah's new technology, weapons and capabilities.

These maneuvers signal a new phase in Israel/Hezbollah/Iranian relations.

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US Invites Morsy to DC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days I have been sounding the alarm warning that unless the United States quickly counters Iran's moves on Egypt, Egypt will be lost to the United States as a possible ally.

I pointed out that the new president of Egypt, Muhammad Morsy, accepted Iran's invite to visit Iran and participate in the Non-Aligned Movement conference hosted by Iran and taking place in Teheran on August 30 I wrote that by accepting the invitation Morsy is showing that he may be moving over to the Iranian sphere.

And now, a short while ago, Morsy's office confirmed that the new Egyptian president will be visiting Washington, DC on September 23, almost exactly one month after his trip to Iran.

Phew. This is the counter move by the United States. It is good, but must be played out carefully and delicately. The United States must, at the same time, be giving with and demanding of Egypt. In terms of giving, the United States is slated to continue providing Egypt with monetary aid to the tune of $1.3 billion.

This trip to Washington must come with the proviso that US support of Egypt is conditional - and then those conditions must be carefully spelled out. Those conditions must include Egypt's relationship with Israel and attitude toward democracy.
And then the United States must make sure that those conditions are met. It's the carrot and the stick. And Egypt will nibble from both Iran and from the United States until she decides which side tastes sweeter.

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Descent in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Not everyone in Iran is a saber rattling, some Iranians have a more realistic understanding of the risks that war with Israel entails.

Iran's greatest, or certainly, one of it's greatest Islamic leaders the Ayatollah Yousef Sanei yesterday announced that: "We must all do our best to prevent the Zionist attacks on Iran, because if they happen, Iran will be hurt greatly, even though the Zionist regime will be hurt even more."

The BBC Farsi station reported the quotes. The Ayatollah Sanei was speaking in the holy city of Qom at the celebration of the Muslim Eid that concludes the fasting month of Ramadan.

He continued: "We should not act, God forbid, as warmongers in our country and provoke a war. The nation is currently in a special condition, and the most important task is to shut the Zionist regime up with our thoughts, pen, and correct efforts and actions."

And then he concludes by saying: "Everyone should make an effort so that a possible war with the Zionist regime does not break out, because although the Zionist regime will suffer the hardest, Iran will be damaged."

The entire analysis is realistic and appropriate and it is probably very mainstream Iran, it is just not a point of view we hear very often from over there.

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Iranian Bird in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian White Throated Robin, Irania Gutturalis, has touched down in the Israel.

This is a very rare bird and indigenous only to Iran. It does migrate, but only very rarely, to Israel. That explains why this robin is on the endangered birds list in Israel even though they are plentiful in Iran.

The bird was spotted and photographed in a children's park in Israel's southern most city, Eliat. The Iranian was hopping and playing and enjoying himself. The photographer quickly snapped and sent pictures to the local bird watching center to confirm it was true.

Eilat is an international capital for bird watchers. People come from all over the world to see migrating bird that travel from Africa to Europe or from the northern portion of the Middle East to the southern portion.

When a tagged bird with a computer migration tracking chip arrived from Israel to Iran a few months ago, it was treated as a spy. Calls went out all throughout Iran that the bird was Israel's new secret weapon.

In Eilat, Israel the Iranian White Throat Robin is being treated like royalty.

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Iron Dome in Eilat
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel positioned one of its Iron Dome Anti-Missile batteries in Eilat. Last week they positioned one in the city of Safed.

Three GRAD missiles have recently fallen on Eilat. Now the Iron Dome will be there to intercept any more missiles that are sent their way.

The Iron Dome has been placed in exactly the area where the previous rockets have fallen. It is a mountainous area off a highway that descends to Eilat.

As this is happening in Israel there have been reports that Egypt is also positioning surface missiles in Sinai. Those missiles face Israel and they are joined by T-60 tanks which have been moved to the border with Israel.

The Iron Dome was created to intercept regular GRAD type missiles - more mobile and less sophisticated than other missiles. But there are also GRADs that are very large and very accurate. The Iron Dome can also defend against those missiles, the type that Egypt is placing in Sinai.

In terms of the Egyptian/Israeli peace treaty and its viability, these are not good signs.

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Morsy to Visit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

New Egyptian President Mohammed Morsy has decided to accept the invitation of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and visit Teheran.

The visit will take place on August 30. It is the first time in 33 years that a visit of this level is taking place. Not since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that unseated the ruling party and established the Islamic Republic of Iran has the president of Egypt has visited Iran.

Morsy will participate in the Non-Aligned Pact meeting that Iran is hosting. Iran is the international chair of NAP.

The Pact was created during the cold war in order to give voice to the many countries not aligned with the US or the Soviets. Now, well after the fall of the USSR, the Non-Aligned Pact continues to lend a voice but it has shifted its focus so that today it is a counter to the West and the United States.

Mosry got the invite form Iran last month but hesitated to respond. Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority had no qualms and immediately confirmed his participation.

Going to the NAP conference means dancing with Iran. This is not a gesture, it is a significant statement about which diplomatic side the PA and Egypt are now on.

The United States is losing Egypt and the Palestinian Authority to Iran. I am not certain that US even realizes what it is happening. If the US does have a counter move, now is the time to use it. Now, or never.

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Lebanon Arrests Gays
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

This week two Lebanese men were arrested for "unnatural sexual intercourse." That's a cliche and it means gay.

It is against the law to be gay in Lebanon and having gay relations is punishable by a year in prison.

Lebanon is the most liberal of all Arab and Muslim countries, in other countries the punishment would have been death.

And only recently, once again in Lebanon, police raided a movie and their arrest netted thirty-five men. All underwent anal inspections by doctors and three were charged with being homosexuals.

The Lebanese doctors union called on the physicians conducting the exams to cease and desist. If not, they said, the union would engage in a serious professional standards hearing and discipline them for violating the code of medicine.

This is all taking place in the most open and liberal of Arab regimes. Most human rights organizations have been silent on the issue although Human Rights Watch has supported the doctors union in Lebanon. There has been no international call to stop this abuse.

Where is the outrage?
The situation almost sounds medieval.

Human rights and civil rights should be independent of religious points of view. One has the right to reject homosexuality but that same person should - actually must - defend homosexuals who are harassed, threatened and persecuted by individual thugs of by thugocratic societies.

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Egypt Prosecutes Press for Anti Gov POV
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is drifting quickly and deeply towards dictatorship.

Yesterday an Egyptian court charged two people for publicly berating the current president of Egypt.

And not just any people. The two are Tawfik Okasha, one of the most popular TV presenters in Egypt and Islam Afifi, the editor-in-chief of Al Dastur, an independent newspaper.

Both men have been extremely critical of President Morsy.

On air, Okasha told Morsy not to attend the funeral of the sixteen soldiers killed by terrorists. He continued by saying that the Muslim Brotherhood had a role in the attack and as a result "spilling his blood would be permissible because of this."

Afifi's paper is already calling the new administration a dictatorship.

Being critical of the government is one thing, being charged for being critical is another thing entirely.
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Hamas Demands Egypt Open Border
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas in Gaza is lashing out at the new Egypt. Hamas leadership is drawing direct parallels between Mubarak's Egypt and the new Egypt. Hamas Interior Minister Fathi Hammad shouted:
"We suffered from the unjust regime of Mubarak that participated in the (Israeli) blockade of Gaza. Why should we suffer now in the era of Egypt's revolution and democracy?"
"The Egyptian leadership is requested to order the reopening of the Rafah crossing to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians wanting to travel, students, patients, residents in third countries and pilgrims," he added in a statement.

Egypt has not yet figured out how to deal with Hamas in Gaza. But at this stage, after it is 100% clear that the terror attack that killed 16 Egyptian soldiers came from Gaza and was Hamas affiliated, I doubt that there will be calm and friendly relations between these Mid East neighbors.

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Big Changes in Egypt: Army Sacked
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy is making serious changes.

Yesterday he forced Field Marshal Tantawi to retire. Tantawi had been in charge of Egypt since the revolution and was the defense minister under Mubarak for over 21 years. He was the head of the Supreme Military Council. In effect, Tantawi and the military were the counter balance to Morsy.

Sacking Tantawi was a huge move. It was a move signaling independence.

In addition, Morsy announced new laws that put him in charge of everything. He is now head of the executive, the legislative and the military. Morsy can now issue new laws and annul old ones. And that is exactly what he is doing.

Morsy has effectively become a dictator - with no check and balances. Until now the balance was the army but Morsy ousted the entire upper echelon of the air force, the navy, the army and intelligence.

The impetus for these changes was the horrific terror attack that killed 16 soldiers during Ramadan.

We must wait and see what happens. But as of now, Egypt is looking very much like a dictatorship.

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Qatar Lends Egypt $2 Bill
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 12, 2012
I've Been Thinking:

Qatar just announced that they are giving Egypt a $2 billion loan. The exact terms of the loan were not made public.

The Emir of Qatar visited Egypt on Saturday and MENA, the Middle East News Agency, reported the news of the loan on Sunday. MENA is an official arm of the Egyptian government sponsored and paid for by government funds. In this case, we can certainly rely on the report.

In Egypt, independent news agencies are censored for insulting the president. Saturday's edition of Al Dustor. a private newspaper owned by a Christian businessman, were confiscated before they were delivered and sold. The front page of the paper was dedicated to warning Egyptians that Egypt is becoming a Muslim Brotherhood state.

Egypt desperately needs the $2 billion. The question is whether they will invest it and build with it or just hand it out.

If they choose to hand out the money they will end up defaulting on the loan.

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Egypt Demands Hamas Turn Over 3 Men
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Serious tensions are arising between Hamas and the new Egyptian government.

Egypt has demanded that Hamas hand over the 3 men who helped plan the attack that killed 16 Egyptian soldiers. Thus far, Hamas has refused.

According to a report in the Palestinian newspaper Al Quds the names of the men are Ayman Nufal, Raad al-Attar and Muhammad abu Smala.
Nufal was a commander of the Izza Din al Qassam brigades, the fighting unit of Hamas. He was arrested in Egypt in 2008, escaped from prison and smuggled back to Gaza last year during the uprising.

Al Attar and Abu Smala are commanders of the Rafah brigade, a highly efficient unit that strikes and attacks Israel regularly. Attar is believed to be the person who planned and executed the Gilad Shalit kidnapping.

There was a report that Hamas agreed to hand over the men but the men refused. They feared torture - and rightly so.

This is just the beginning. Egypt is very upset that Hamas is sheltering these murderers - men who killed Egyptians in order to use their weapons and vehicles to attack Israelis. Adding to their anger is the fact that the entire episode took place on Ramadan at the time of break fast.

This act of mass murder during Ramadan was tantamount to saying that Egyptian Muslims are not true Muslims. Egypt will fight this battle to the bitter end.

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Another New Cyber Virus- Gauss
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yet another cyber weapon virus has been discovered in the Middle East.

The Russian antivirus company Kaspersky announced yesterday that it had discovered another virus. They call this one Gauss, named after one of the 19th century's greatest mathematicians, Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss. They also, by the way, found and named hacking files for Kurt Godel and Joseph-Louis Lagrange. These men were all trail blazing math philosophers and theorists.

The largest and major hacking file Kapersky found was in the virus called Gauss.

Experts at Kaspersky are saying that it is abundantly clear that the Gauss virus was created by the same people who created Stuxnet, DUQU, Viper and Flame. There are too many similarities.

Other viruses probably self destroyed, but this new Gauss is very sophisticated and will take a long time to unravel and crack.

Gauss can record and break identities and assume identities. It looks like Gauss specializes in banks and accounts. It is probably not an attack virus but a spy and manipulate virus.

The Godel program is automatically transferred to a USB drive. It will only decompress when it hits its target. Godel is probably the attack virus. It will do dramatic harm if and when it is unleashed.

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Abdullah Of Jordan's Take on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Jordan's King Abdullah said that the conflict in Syria could have a long term detrimental impact on the region.

King Abdullah went on to explain that he was worried that if Assad was unable to hold on to the entire state called Syria, Assad might carve out a smaller region which would be a safe haven for his own Alawite tribe. The Alawites are a break off of Shiite Islam.

If that should happen it means that another state would emerge in the region, a state which is the sworn enemy of some of its neighbors.

This is not the King of Jordan's biggest worry. Abdullah's biggest fear is that the same type of al Qaeda sponsored unrest now in Syria will cross over the border into Jordan and attempt to oust him and his family from power.

There are so many people now coming across the border seeking refuge in Jordan and Abdullah knows that some are there to foment and organize a movement against him.

Will Abdullah learn the lessons of Mubarak and Assad, both of whom exercised moderate restraint? Or will Abdullah massively murder on the first day of an uprising the way his father did when he massacred anywhere between 3,400 - 10,000 Palestinians in 11 days to put down a coup. That period in Jordanian history is now and forever known as Black September.

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Egypt Does Not Get It
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Morad Mowafi, head of Egyptian intelligence, admitted that Egypt had detailed and specific intelligence that a terror attack was to take place - they knew where, when and what. They had all the details.

He said: "Yes, we had detailed information about the attack, but we never imagined that a Muslim would kill a Muslim on the hour of breaking the fast in Ramadan."

All those details, and yet, unimaginably, the intelligence forces of Egypt did not believe that Muslim terrorists would murder Muslims on Ramadan at meal time to achieve their ends. In the end, sixteen Muslims were murdered by Muslim terrorists.

And then he said: "This incident should never raise any questions regarding the efficiency of the security forces in Sinai and their alertness."

Of course there are questions about Egypt's ability to secure their country against Muslim terrorists. Most essential is that it is now clear that Egyptian Intelligence knows so little about Islam that they believe they would not murder another Muslim on Ramadan.

This is the rule of: "if I would not do it then it could happen."

But the rule is false - that is why we have intelligence.
The only real way for Egyptians to understand what did happen is to blame it on the Israelis. And that's what they did.

But that does not take into consideration the 2000 Muslim terrorists, most of them al Qaeda trained and oriented, currently sitting in Sinai and waiting to strike.

The Egyptians will explain that one away, too.

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Iran To Hold Summit on Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was quoted by IRNA news agency yesterday saying that on Thursday Iran is going to host a regional summit in Teheran about Syria. Those who will attend, he said, will have a "reasonable" perspective about the outcome.

"A consultation meeting on Syria will be held in Tehran on Thursday with the participation of those countries who have realistic stances on this country."

Rest assured that the Saudis will certainly not attend the summit, neither will Qatar nor Turkey.

This is not simply another publicity stunt by Iran.

There is no doubt that Iran supports the Assad regime as do China and Russia who will most probably attend the summit. In arranging and hosting the summit Iran is trying to suggest that ousting Assad is not the only and certainly not the best option available.

With that, I agree.

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War of Rhetoric w/ Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Conflict in the Middle East is more about battles with weapons of rhetoric and propaganda than it is about conventional weapons of guns and missiles.

Yesterday Ahmed Vahidi, the Iranian defense minister, announced that it is beyond the realm of possible that Israel will strike Iran.
The Iranian Republic News Agency reported that Israel will never attack Iran "unless the Zionist regime wishes to commit suicide."

Iran knows full well that Israel is planning multiple strategies for attacking Iran. But they want their people to be calm and they want the Israelis to perhaps have second thoughts about attacking and to give more thought to the effects of an attack.

When we were kids we used to say that we were "psyching" each other out. Iran is trying to psych out Israel and the people of Iran.

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Iran Sends 3000 Soldiers to Syria
By Micah Halpern

August 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arabic media giant Al Arabia reported on TV that Iran has sent thousands of soldiers to Syria to help Assad.

The head of the Joint Military Council confirmed the report and said that 3,000 Iranians soldiers were now in Syria fighting. The Joint Military Council is one of the many groups fighting the Assad regime.

He explained that the reason the Assad regime needed Iranian help was that Syrian soldiers were too much of a risk. They could not be trusted as they were likely to defect to his group or to other rebel forces.

All this was happening as Assad stepped up his fight using planes and helicopters to reclaim strongholds and pound the rebel fighters in Aleppo and Damascus.

The situation in Syria continues to unfold.


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Iran Fears Soft War
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Jafari is the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The IRG is by far the most powerful group in Iran.

Jafari addressed a conference in Teheran recently and his speech was pasted on the IRG website. Jafari talked about the "Soft War."

He said that the biggest challenge to the Islamic revolution was the "Soft War." The expression "Soft War" normally refers to a conflict that does not involve conventional weapons of war like guns and planes and bombs.

In other words, a "Soft War" refers to sanctions to cyber warfare and to propaganda.

Iran is waging its own defense and attack in the "Soft War." But it has also taken some devastating blows. Acknowledging this publicly was a huge strategic move on Iran's part.

The IRG is hoping to get the support of the masses. The "Soft War" is felt most by the middle class. Jafari needs the middle class to know that at home, they are the true fighters for their Islamic revolution.

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Brutal Murder of Wives in PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Several dozen women and handful of men marched silently through the street in Bethlehem. The march was in protest of the inaction of the community and they demanding that all people especially the government and police protect women.

Earlier this week a woman was brutally murdered in the street by her husband in the Palestinian town of Batir. The murder took place in broad daylight in front of people who did nothing to stop it. This was the third such incident in a matter of weeks, the others were in Tulkaram in the West Bank and in Shati in Gaza.

Since January 12 women have been murdered by their husbands in the PA. And since 2011 thirteen women have been murdered for honor - they did something to bring shame on the family name.

In the Palestinian Authority police seldom act to protect or even investigate these murders.

The public demonstration may embarrass PA leadership and force them to act. President Abbass' office responded by saying that he held a meeting with the police about ensuring civilian safety.

That is not quite enough. Not if you are a victim

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Hamas Critique of PA & Auschwitz
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Hamas leader publicly strafed and viciously criticized a Palestinian Authority advisor for visiting Auschwitz.

Last week Zaid al Bandak a close adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went to visit the infamous and most notorious Nazi death camp located in southern Poland. In Auschwitz the Nazis murdered 1 million Jews in gas chambers and then burnt their bodies in crematoria.

Hamas made clear in their criticism of the visit that they firmly believe that the Holocaust is a lie fabricated to give Jews superior victim status that justifies their oppression of the Palestinians.

This conflict shows just how different Hamas is from the PA. It's critical that the difference be underscored. Hamas is a terror organization that has sworn to destroy Israel. It is part of their very essence.

The PA is the authority that Israel was, is and will need to deal with in order to achieve a rapprochement.

It is too simple to lump everyone together and say that the all Palestinian leadership is the same.

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Egypt Denies Sending Letter to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Morsy sent a letter to Israeli President Peres yesterday. The letter spells the name of the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt with a "Y" not an "I". Who am I to spell it differently.

The letter, accompanied by a cover letter, was delivered by the Egyptian Embassy in Israel.

The Israeli press picked up the news and heralded it. The Egyptian spokesperson for President Morsy who is the representative of Muslim Brotherhood said that the press reports in Israel were "all a fabrication."

But it is not so.

I saw a copy of the cover letter which mentions the official letter. In the cover letter Morsy blesses Peres and thanks Peres for the blessings he bestowed upon him.

So why the denial in Egypt?

Because being friendly - or rather, not being hostile - to Israel, is unacceptable in the new Egypt.

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Iran To Execute 4 for Bank Fraud
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a court in Iran convicted and sentenced four men to death. They will be executed for bank fraud.

The four were investment bankers who forged papers enabling them to get $2.6 billion in government loans that they then used to buy government properties.

The arrests were made in September 2011. The trial and the sentencing took less than 11 months. The government of Ahmadinejad has been tainted by this case. One of the charges against the current government is corruption and the charge is based on this $2.6 billion scandal.

In Iran they execute people convicted of bank fraud. There is no such thing as white collar crime and white collar sentencing in Iran.

I could not even begin to imagine how many people would now be on death row if that were the white collar punishment meted out in the United States.

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Jordan Opens Syrian Refugee Camps
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan gave permission to the United Nations to establish 200 refugee camps for Syrians seeking safe haven from the crisis in Syria.

Thus far 140,000 refugees have crossed into Jordan where the camps will accommodate up to a million. Until now Jordan was reluctant to permit camps thinking that camps will create their own problems. The number of refugees Jordan permits to cross the border per day has increased from 500 to 1000 and may be as many as 2000.

Now the Syrians are helping the UN establish the refugee camps. The first was opened yesterday on the Syrian border.

The Zaatari Camp was opened with 500 new refugees. It will eventually hold 120,000.

Jordan is preparing for the worse possible scenario. Kudos to Jordan.
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Arabs Blackout Israel at Olympics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Olympic Games - symbol of peace and global interaction, a series of events that inspire national pride and true, literal, global warming.

Every country broadcast Friday's opening ceremony with great pomp and circumstance.

Almost.

When the Israeli delegation came out and took their place in the opening night procession, Al Jazeera went silent.

The great detail that Al Jazeera had been using to describe and bring to life all the other delegations stopped short. The last words said by the commentators before they went silent were: "They do not deserve it." Translation: Israel does not deserve this place of respect in the community of nations.

Al Jazeera is broadcast from Qatar. It is the closest thing to an independent Arabic network. But in truth it is not independent. In truth, Al Jazeera broadcasts or in this case goes silent and chooses not to broadcast in order to perpetuate the great lie about Israel and to permeate hatred.

With or without Al Jazeera's coverage of Israel's participation, the Games go on.


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Near War in The Mid East
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the unimaginable happened. We are lucky that the tinderbox that is now the entire Middle East region did not ignite and burst into war.

As a family of refugees was fleeing Syria and crossing into Jordan, a group of Syrian soldiers opened fire. One of the children was killed.

The Jordanian army, on the other side, opened fire and shot at the Syrian forces with the intention of defending the refugees. It appears that the Jordanians were not in the direct line of fire.

It was direct combat between neighbors.

The entire episode only took a few minutes, but it was a skirmish. Official Jordanian media described it as a mini combat. Not a battle and not a war.

This incident could have easily lit the fuse and drawn Syria to respond to Jordan's response to Syria shooting the refugees.

This is a classic illustration of a tinderbox.

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Iran Hit with Cyber Attack- Heavy Metal Music
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Cyber war is serious stuff. But there are some lighter moments.
Yesterday the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran was hit by a virus. The virus shut the agency down. All Siemens products were affected.

The virus plays the 1991Heavy Metal song Thunderstruck by AC/DC.
As far as we can tell from reports, from people who have been called in to help Iran who have been quoted and from atomic energy colleagues, the music virus malware has done nothing more than offend the ears.

Heavy metal at its best with a lot of screeching and a lot of pounding.

This might just be a new form of torture for Iranian scientists.
Never underestimate the power of a good sense of humor.

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BP to Supply Israel w Gas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

British Petroleum (BP) just won the tender to supply Israel with Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

They beat out Russia's Gazprom, one of the largest gas companies in the world, for the tender.

BP will deliver two large tankers to Israel Electric Corporation every month until May 2013. This is a short term solution to the decision Egypt made in April to break their natural gas deal with Israel.

LNG is shipped on tankers that normally carry 150,000 - 250,000 m cubed. After LNG is converted back to natural gas it becomes seven times its size. The gas is then converted to electricity.

There are only about 360 ships in the world that transport LNG. The ships are easily identifiable, they look like they have four large golf balls on top.

Israel cannot be dependent on Egypt or any Arab country for energy needs until they can tap their own newly found gas resources. This arrangement works for both Israel and for BP.

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Will Obama Visit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Presidential electioneering is in high gear.

Next week, Romney will be making a trip to Great Britain, Israel, Poland and Germany.

And an aide to President Obama, Colin Kahl announced that the president will visit Israel in his second term. The comment was met with a chuckle - the last trip Obama made to Israel was a 2008 campaign visit.

To effectively reach out to important constituencies, the standard rule for presidential candidates is to visit the "Three I's," those of course are Ireland Italy and Israel. Obama visited Israel in 2008, Italy in July 2009 and searched for his roots in Ireland in May 2011.

As a sitting president Barack Obama has been all around Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia almost everywhere in the region, but he never stopped in.

Some say that the entire issue is irrelevant. Bush 43 visited late in his second term and Reagan and Bush 41 never visited Israel at all. Clinton visited four times and Bush the junior, although late in his tenure, visited Israel twice. Even Jimmy Carter who only visited thirty-one countries during his entire presidency made certain to visit Israel.

Some serious Democratic friends of Israel are struggling to determine if Obama really is a friend of Israel, or, is he just playing lip service. If Obama is elected to a second term, we will find out.

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Iran's Strategy
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since July 1st Ahmadinejad has been saying that the real battle between the West and Iran is now beginning because of the new heavy sanctions that are in effect.

Before July 1st the Iranian leader's rhetoric was directed internally. Now Ahmadinejad is starting to make serious threats to the West. The United States is interpreting these threats.

Intelligence and diplomatic analysts have almost certainly concluded that Iran is going to strike at the oil industry. That explains why futures on gasoline and oil have started to rise. The thinking is that Iran is going to make a move very soon and that move will include squeezing the Straits of Hormuz.

For Iran, there is no downside.

If there is tension in the Gulf - the price of oil goes up and they win.

If they reduce the movement of oil through the Straits of Hormuz - the price of oil goes up and they win.

If the United States attacks Iran unrest emerges in the region and - the price of oil goes up and they win. Plus they win even more because they appear as the victim and the US is the aggressor.

There is almost no situation in which Iran does not win. The best way to keep the Iranians weak is to keep the situation normal.

Good Luck with that.

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Iraqi Oil
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Chevron just signed an oil exploration deal with Iraqi Kurds. Chevron is the second largest US oil company, right after ExxonMobil.

The Iraqi Central government is upset, even livid, because of this deal. The Central government wants control over regional deals.

Well, actually, the Iraqi Central government wants control over all oil deals. They want them coordinated through their oil ministry.

The Kurds say that the constitution enables them the power to negotiate their own oil contracts. And that is just what they did.

According to sources Chevron paid between $200 and $300 million for the exploration of just several sites. In addition, according to the agreement the region receives $3-$5 per barrel. It is a much better local deal than the one struck earlier by the Central government.

There is no doubt that the strength and the future of the Iraq, as well as its stability, lies with will the regions, not the Central government. Iraq's economic viability is dependent on regions, not the Central government.
This is a hard lesson to learn.


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Egypt's Spy Master
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Omar Suleiman died this week at the age of 75. He was a soldier his entire life.

Suleiman served as Intelligence Chief of Egypt. He was the chief spy and one of the most trusted and most important people in the inner group of Hosni Mubarak.

Suleiman was Mubarak's right hand man and in the end, he actually served as vice president in a move intended to placate the masses during the riots that ousted Mubarak.

Suleiman even threw his hat into the race for president after Mubarak was ousted. He was disqualified because he did not gather the proper number of signatures and because he was affiliated with the previous government.

Suleiman was the mediator between Israel and the Palestinians and between Palestinians and Palestinians. He was known to be straightforward and fair.

Omar Suleiman died in Cleveland, he will be buried in Egypt.

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Reasons For Terror Attack
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There are several reasons - beyond the simple and the obvious, that can explain why Iran and Hezbollah went to attack Israelis in Bulgaria.

Most significant is that Iran and Hezbollah have a debt to settle with Israel. There was and there continues to be an ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. At times the conflict has taken a rhetorical form. But it is most dangerous when it takes the form of targeted attacks. Like in Burgas.

Israel has had successes in this conflict, too. Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated and Iran holds Israel responsible for the attacks.

Even more critical was the successful strike at Imad Mughniyah in February of 2008. It is unclear if Israel actually assassinated him - the US could easily have been behind it also. Whichever country it was, the deed was done with the assistance of others, most probably the Saudis.

Mughniyah was one of Iran's most important proxies. He was a responsible for killing more Americans than any other person before 9-11. He was responsible for the US Embassy bombing in Beirut. He planned and executed operations all over the world. He extended Iran's reach.

Mughniyah and Iran attacked the Jewish Community center in Argentina. And the attack in Burgas, Bulgaria took place exactly 18 years later, it took place on the 18th anniversary of the attack in Argentina.

This was not history repeating itself, and the Jews of Bulgaria themselves were not subject to significant anti-Semitism. This was terror, pure ongoing terror.

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Bulgaria Terror - No Surprise
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The terror attack at the Burgas airport in Bulgaria was horrific. It targeted Israelis of all ages as they stepped off their plane on the way to a holiday at the Black Sea.

Bulgaria's President said that the Mossad did not warn his country of the possibility of an attack. He was referring to a meeting that took place a month ago with Mossad and other Israeli officials who laid out threats.

But this was a no brainer.

Burgas, like Varna, is a regular spot for thousands of Israelis who arrive in Bulgaria on charter planes and stay at hotels that are almost exclusively for Israelis. They get off the planes from Ben Gurion airport and get on Israeli buses. The hotels have additional security for that reason. Actually, the hotels that Israelis stay at in Bulgaria have more security than the Bulgarian President's Black Sea residence which is located not far from the hotels. Burgas is an obvious, high risk, target even without a special Mossad warning.

Part of the ABC's of security is know the calendar - your calendar and the calendar of your enemies.

July 18th marks the 18th anniversary of the bombing of the Jewish Center in Buenos Aires.

This week is the eve of the holiest month in the Muslim world. Ramadan begins in most parts of the world on Friday.

Those are two every important dates and events in the Muslim world. They are dates and events that are very important to Muslim terrorists sponsored by Hezbollah and Iran.

The attack was tragic. But it was not a surprise.

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Iran Attack Israel w/ a Virus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday two major cyber security companies announced that Israel was not only targeted but hit by a cyber attack from Iran.

Seculert and Kaspersky both released info that a virus called Mahdi attacked 800 Israeli computers. The computers were in academic institutions and government agencies.

The virus was able to transmit and to record. It relayed messages and pictures and other information. It stole files and read emails and instant messages. Clearly, this virus is a part of a much larger portfolio. It was not a virus that caused a malfunction - it was a virus that spied.

The name given this virus is particularly important. According to Shiite tradition the Mahdi is the 12th Imam. The Mahdi is supposed to herald in the messianic era, destroy all evil and convert all non-believers to the proper faith. The Mahdi will rid the world of injustice.

One file in the operating system read Mahdi, the other read mahdi.txt. This is a sure sign that the virus was sent from Iran. No one would even joke about this.

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A Happening Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

In the midst of all the things that are happening in the Middle East, what with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hopping from Egypt to Israel to Ramallah, some very important attacks have never even made it to diplomatic radar screens.

While Clinton was in Israel a US naval ship, firing on a small rubber boat, killed the attacker. After several warning shots were fired aim was taken at the rubber speed boat because it would not turn away and it was coming directly at the US Naval ship.

And then, while Clinton was still in Israel, Gaza terrorists shot two rockets at Israel. They landed in an open field and no one was hurt.

The point is this: the Palestinians are pushing the United States to push Israel to make concessions to enable them statehood. They are pushing so hard and the United States is so consumed by this demand, that nothing else can make it onto the US radar screen.

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Clinton to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton is now in Israel after spending the weekend in Egypt.

In Alexandria the US Secretary of State was greeted with the calls: "Monica Monica" and "Clinton Go Home." This is not unusual and I am certain that it did not fluster the Secretary Clinton, but it is telling.

Clinton is viewed extremely negatively by the street in Egypt.

Hillary Clinton has an impossible task - demanding that Egyptian leaders play nicely with one another. She asked President Morsi and General Tantawi to work out their differences and work together - and when they do the United States will be there to help.

But this is where she is so off base.

Egypt's leaders cannot simply snap into shape, even for a few billion dollars. They distrust one another and they have divergent visions of how Egypt should operate. The easiest way to effectively work together would be to have each one work in their exclusive roles. Let Morsi stick to politics and let Tantawi stick to defense. But that is highly unlikely.

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Syria's Chemical Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

According to Western intelligence sources, Syria has begun moving some of its chemical stores. This is very concerning.

From my sources and from the reports I have received it does not seem to me that the Syrians are prepping the chemicals for use - but rather, moving them out of the conflict and more importantly, out of the potential hands of al Qaeda.

But there is an implicit threat in moving the chemicals. It means they exist. And it means that Bashar Assad may, at some point, want to use them. However, contrary to what most analysts say the threat is not that Assad might use chemicals against his own people.

The threat is that Assad will either attack Israel with the chemicals or counter with the chemicals. He might believe in an old fashioned, tried and true, method of leadership in the Arabic world - when all else fails attack Israel. That might unify and bring together the masses.

I know that it is one of Assad's potential plans and has been since the beginning of the rebellion in Syria. As of now it has not been clear that the high cost of attacking Israel would pan out in any significant gain for Assad.

If al Qaeda were to get their hands on the chemicals there would be only trouble for the entire region.

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Straits of Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Let's talk about the Straits of Hormuz. Not the oil dimensions - everyone knows just how important the Straits are to transporting world oil from the Gulf to markets across the globe.

Let's talk about the geography of the Straits of Hormuz.

The Straits of Hormuz are narrower than one can imagine. At its widest point the Straits measure 69 nautical miles wide. At its narrowest it measures only 21 nautical miles wide. Only 6 of those miles are shipping lanes - the other 15 miles are too shallow and too murky to be used.

There are 2 lanes going out and 2 lanes coming in. Each of those lanes is a mile wide. There is a 2 mile buffer between them.
The Straits are not, repeat, the Straits are not, international territory!!!

The Straits of Hormuz are territorial waters belonging to Oman and Iran. They are used for shipping lane out of tradition and through the good graces of Oman and Iran.

That's where the real problem emerges. Can Iran shut the Straits down? Yes they can. But will Iran shut the Straits down? Probably not.

Iran will taunt the West and Western powers will become flustered and then they will make mistakes.

In 2009 two United States vessels collided in the Straits. A submarine called the USS Hartford hit the USS New Orleans and amphibious craft. This is what happens when you play in the Straits.

Nobody plays better than Iran.

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4 US Carriers to Hormuz
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are rising in the straits of Hormuz, that tiny water way through which 1/3 of the world's oil passes every day.

Iran is making plans. Some of those plans will be radical than others. Certainly the Iranians have plans to shut the straits and/or to sink a ship and/or to mine the straits. They will most probably squeeze and slow down the already narrow water way.

The United States is countering. They are sending slews of unmanned subs capable of deactivating or simply exploding underwater minefields. They are also sending more aircraft carriers and accompanying fleets. By August there should be four US carrier fleets in the area along with France's sole carrier, the Charles De Gaulle.

The 5th fleet which is normally in the Gulf and the 6th fleet which is normally in the Mediterranean are already there. US power in the region will include the Eisenhower, Enterprise, Stennis and the Lincoln, all on the coast of Iran.

That is a lot of firepower and many boots. The United States means to intimidate. But what if Iran simply slows things down? How will the US respond?

If the United States is too heavy handed, they will play right into the Iranian game.

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Turkey Buying Iran Oil w/ Gold
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Intelligence coupled with speculation has led to the thinking that Turkey is importing oil from Iran in such significant quantities that the sale would and should draw attention if an exchange of dollars was used to cover the cost of the oil.

But what if currency was not exchanging hands to cover the cost of the oil?

What if it were some other form of payment that would not appear on the international banking records?

If that were the case Turkey would both be getting oil and doing an end around in their agreement with the United States to limit their oil purchase from Iran.

It seems that gold exports from Turkey to Iran have increased by 400% compared to this time last year. In dollars, that is about $1.2 billion of gold per month - for April, May and June alone.

This means that Turkey is paying Iran for oil and natural gas by delivering gold to Teheran in separate shipments. The intelligence sources on this are quoted by Debka and they claim their sources are Russian and Azeri.

There is no reason to doubt the veracity of this report. It makes perfectly good sense given the region and the relationships.

Do not underestimate Turkey.

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India Will Insure Iran Oil Tankers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

India announced yesterday that they will be insuring Indian tankers that bring oil from Iran to Indian refineries.

Since July 1 and the increased sanctions by the EU many oil shipping tankers were left without coverage and could not transport Iranian oil. As I have already noted, Japan is underwriting $7.5 billion in coverage.

India has allocated $50 million for pollution and $50 for hull and ship damage.

That sum, as large as it may appear, will hardly cover what is necessary. The minimum for an oil cleanup in $1 billion - but this $100 million has stimulated four other Indian insurers to step forward.

This is very good news for Iran.

Despite India's suggestion that they will reduce their dependency on Iranian oil, they are now equipped to receive as much Iranian oil as they need. Estimates are that India will be taking 300,000 barrels per day from Iran. That could translate into 1/5 to 1/ 6 of Iran's daily production.

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SaudisWants a Nuke
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since the EU sanctions came into full swing on July 1, the world has been gearing up for Iran's counter response.

The most logical response from Iran would be a narrowing of the Straits of Hormuz. Not a closing - a narrowing. Slow down oil transport, but not block it. That action would put the US in a quandary. Do they intervene or not intervene.

Saudi Arabia is at work trying its own form of intimidation. Reports have surfaced that the Saudis are offering to buy the Chinese nuclear Dong-Fen 21 ((NATO-codenamed CSS-5) ballistic missile. They are offering $60 billion plus oil.

When Saudi Arabia gets a nuclear missile, the game has changed. It puts Saudi Arabia above Iran in the race for nuclear weapons. That threat will either escalate Iran's intentions, or curb them.
Prepare for a very hot summer.

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Obama Invites Morsi
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is livid as are both sides of the aisle in Congress and Democratic and Republican supporters of Israel.

The White House is inviting the newly elected Egyptian president to the White House in September. The invitation was delivered to Morsi by Deputy Secretary of State William Burns at the conclusion of two days of conferencing in Egypt.

Why such an uproar about an invite? Because this invite disregards direct promises made to American Jewish leaders, Israelis leaders and congressional leaders. President Obama directly told them all that there were certain conditions that had to be set in place before the US opened the final stage of acceptance to Morsi and Egypt.

Those stages include a public proclamation about the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel. They include dialing down the anti-Christian, anti-minority violence and rhetoric. They include liberalizing women's rights.

This invitation was extended to Egypt as a way to counter the Iranian invitation to visit Teheran in August - an invitation Morsi has not yet accepted.

Call it a diplomatic mistake. Call it a serious mess. Call it what it is - amateur maneuvering by a country that should know better.

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Al Jazeera's Goof
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera promo'ed their scoop for weeks: Yasser Arafat was poisoned by polonium and they have the proof.

The story is totally bogus. The Swiss lab that did the testing has confirmed no such findings.

So why did they do it? Because al Jazeera wanted the Israeli/Palestinian conflict back on the map - but they failed.

No serious media ever believed this so-called scoop - other Arabic stations were totally blase about the story and did not even bother with it. People watching al Jazeera wrote to the web site telling them, in effect, that nobody cares. A few who did care to comment asked Arafat's widow Suha to return all the money. Others said cover the real issues of the Middle East, not ancient history.

The response al Jazeera got was the opposite of what they expected. They had hoped to reshape the media message and move things away from inner Arab fighting and replace it with Israel/Arab and Western/Arab conflicts.

Al Jazeera has no credibility. The Arabic speaking world watches al Jazeera knowing its limitations and is aware of its agenda.

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Clinton to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The US State Department announced that Hillary Clinton will visit Egypt to meet the new president, Mohammed Morsi, on July 14. She will be in Egypt two days before her two day visit to Israel.
Despite the rumors that circulated two weeks ago that Clinton would not be meeting Morsi, the visit has now become official.

Morsi will be kept very busy playing host. Yesterday Hamas announced that their prime minister, Ismail Haniyah, will be visiting Egypt to meet with Egyptian President Morsi next week also. It is important to note that the Muslim Brotherhood is the intellectual parent of Hamas.

Morsi greeting Hanyiah and Clinton one after the other is further complicated by a telephone conversation between Iran's Ahmadinejad and Morsi. Ahmadinejad invited Morsi to come to Iran at the end of August and join the Non-Aligned Pact Conference that they are hosting.

The Non-Aligned Pact is a synonym for anti United States. If Morsi goes to Iran in August they will completely sway him away from any impact the United States might have had on him in July.

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Killed for Ripping the Koran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Pakistan a man was dragged from a police station by thousands of people. He was beaten and then set on fire. It is not clear exactly when he died.

The man had been arrested for desecrating the Koran. It was said that he had ripped out several pages.

When the arrest of the man became public, announcements were made in mosques to punish the man who defamed the holy book.

Laws against defaming Islam are very strict in Pakistan. Christians and other non-Muslims live in fear that they will be charged.

Lawyers are frightened and will not take their cases. Judges are intimidated.

Last year two politicians who spoke about liberalizing these laws were murdered.

To a Muslim desecrating a Koran is not simply an insult. One does not turn the other cheek. It is an affront that often results in death. This is not a lone example.

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Syria: Thought It Was Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week I wrote that Syria was suggesting that the reason they downed a Turkish F-4 was because they believed it to be an Israeli plane.

True or not true - that is the official statement released yesterday by Syrian President Bashar Assad. Of course Assad hoped it would be and Israeli jet - it was the perfect excuse. Assad also officially apologized for the mistaken downing of the Turkish plane.

None of it makes Turkey any the happier. Turkey has scrambled F-16 fighter jets every day for the past three days. Yesterday six Turkish F-16s flew to protect the Turkish border when two Syrian helicopters approached. The helicopters turned back within a mile of the border.

Emotions are raw.

The formal announcement and apology from Assad do not smooth over the problem, but they do at least present an opportunity for dialing down the tensions and allow for Turkey and Syria to back away from the brink of conflict.

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Abbas Arrests Thugs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas and his loyal police have been spending that past few days cracking the whip.

Over 200 people have been arrested and a massive amount of weapons have been confiscated. Almost everyone arrested is affiliated with - Abbas and Fatah. Things have gotten out of hand in the PA.

Vigilantism has become the rule of the land. There have been too many gangland attacks and too many extortion rings all under the guise of Abbas' PA loyalists and now Abbas is saying - enough.
Anarchy. Violence. Unbridled gang attacks against businesses and against other gangs.

The situation is so bad that even politicians are being attacked.
The situation is so bad that it is placing in jeopardy international aid and the Palestinian bid for statehood.

If there is no law and order and no sense of safety and security there is no possibility that world powers will even consider the PA for Statehood.

Until now Abbas has been reluctant to crack down on Palestinians or on his militias and gangs. But this crackdown is self-serving. This crackdown is a perfect example of the Abbas-style of rule.

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Israel Now Has Natural Gas
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Isramco, an energy exploratory and investment group, announced that they have hit natural gas at the Shimshon #1 rig in the Mediterranean Sea.

The drilling rig is about 60 miles off the coast of Ashkelon, Israel.
Isramco dug 4400 meters deep and struck the natural gas. The exploratory dig began in April. Now that they have found the gas, they need 35 days to properly test the gas and evaluate production.

They already have a very good sense of the size of the natural gas deposits.

This is a very good sign for Israel and for the region. It will free Israel of external dependency upon natural gas and even permit them to export excess natural gas. In addition, it will further put the natural gas option front and center as a viable alternative to oil for Israel.

This find by Aramco is also a good sign for breaking the monopoly on Israeli energy exploration which, until now, has been exclusively been in the hands of the Nobel and Delek group.

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Turkey Will Not Invade Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Syria will not invade Turkey and Turkey will not invade Syria. It is all saber rattling.

Yesterday Syria amassed 170 tanks along their northern border, the 900 mile border that they share with Turkey.

A week ago Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom plane and since then Turkey has been spouting rhetoric about Syria and about how Turkey must defend itself.

The 170 tanks on the battlefield came as a response to Turkey's response to Syria's response to Turkey.

Aleppo is 19 miles from the border with Turkey and the tanks are north of there. Reports of the tank movements came from opposition leaders and have been confirmed by residents who saw tank movement.

Moving 170 tanks takes time and clogs up traffic. Tanks are moved two at a time on flatbeds so that their tracks do destroy the roads.

Hopefully, the rhetoric and the military maneuvers will tone down over the next few days. Unfortunately, it can be very dangerous when the big toys are taken out - they sometimes go off. That is what got Syria and Turkey, two otherwise friendly nations, into this situation in the first place.

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Syria Thought it Was Israel's F-4
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter jet last Friday. The incident ignited an already tense relationship between two countries that share a 900 mile border.

Turkey has said that in 2012, Syrian helicopters crossed into Turkish air space five times. From now on, they say, Syrian aircraft in their air space will be considered hostile and not simply pilot error.

But yesterday, Syria came up with and an interesting excuse. The Syrians are saying that their investigation suggests that the people manning their anti-aircraft battery assumed that the F-4 was Israeli - not Turkish - and that explains why the plane was targeted and downed.

The F-4 is an American plane and the Israeli air force is almost all American fighter jets. But since 2008 Israel has not flown the F-4. Now the Israeli air force almost exclusively flies F-15 & F-16.

Back in 2000 Israel still had about 100 F-4's but in today's competitive aerial fighting environment the F-4 cannot hold its own.

Syria made a huge error. Nice try at covering it up, but not at all even plausible. Bad intel and worse training.


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Israeli Cherries in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Wild and preposterous reports circulated throughout Iran yesterday. And then the impossible was confirmed.

Cherries sold in the markets of Iran were imported from ---- Israel.

How is that possible? There are no trade deals between Israel and Iran. There is no relationship between Israel and Iran. And yet - it has happened before. This is not the first time Iranians have tasted from the forbidden fruit of the Promised Land.

The cherries arrived through a third party. They were exported from Israel to a vendor and when Iran wanted cherries, these are the cherries that were sent.

It happened with Israeli oranges in 2009. Unlike the cherries, the oranges came wrapped and stamped with the words "Produce of Israel." In the case of the cherries, they probably arrived in a crate labeled "Product of Israel."

They were sweet cherries when they left Israel, I hope they didn't leave a sour taste in the mouths of Iranians.


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Politics and Rhetoric in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

CNN reported yesterday that new Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi intends to appoint a woman and a Christian as deputy presidents.

This is a welcome message to the West and acts to allay the fear that Morsi represents the Muslim Brotherhood movement which has repeatedly articulated anti-women and anti-Christian points of view. Those points of view have been articulated by Morsi, as well, but that was before he won the election.

It is not clear whether the new president will actually appoint a woman and/or a Christian or if he is simply changing his stance on women and Christians. But saying what he did was the right thing to say and to the right audience.

The official stance of the Muslim Brotherhood is that women should not be part of politics - period. They have been the bulwark behind violence against Christians and have been behind attacks against Christian churches. Morsi himself has never condemned any attack on Christians.

So how much of this is just political rhetoric - we will know soon enough.

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Oil Below $80 thw Best Weapon Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Oil closed below $80 per barrel yesterday. That is great news for proponents of sanctions and pressure against Iran. In February, oil was $110 a barrel.

As of July 1st the European Union will implement a total ban on Iranian oil.

Earlier this year Iran was producing 3.5 million barrels per day.

Since the pressure began building, that number has fallen to 3.1 million.

It is doubtful that Iranian oil production will fall much below this. Until now, as one country shifted its oil supply away from Iran, another shifted to Iran in an almost seamless transition. China and Japan alone account for 20% of Iran's oil and if anything - they both need and want more.

Iran has been preparing for this day.

The Europeans might shut their valves but the valves of China and Japan are open wide. Indian and South Korea have received exemptions from the United States allowing them to import Iranian oil - and that is exactly what they are planning to do.

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Hamas & Fatah at Odds Over Egyptian Pres
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

As soon as it was announced that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi won the presidential election in Egypt the calls of congratulations came pouring in.

The United States, England and Turkey are among the many nations that offered standard, diplomatically imbued, blessings.
The interesting messages are those delivered by the so-called "friends" of Egypt.

Hamas: the win is "a historic moment and a new era in the history of Egypt." It is a "defeat for the program of normalization and security cooperation with the enemy (Israel)."

Fatah: "We congratulate Doctor Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, on his win in the Egyptian presidential elections, and his election as president of Egypt."

You don't even have to read between the lines, it is all spelled out clearly in word and in tone: Hamas sees eye to eye with the Muslim Brotherhood and Fatah would have preferred the secular candidate.

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Ahmadinejad in Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is in Venezuela again.

An official Venezuelan newspaper ran a story, timed for this visit of the Iranian leader, recalling that during his visit to Venezuela in 2006, the Venezuelans gave Iran an F-16 fighter jet.
The jet came from a batch of twenty-three F-16 jests that the United States had sold to Venezuela in 1983. According to the report the F-16 was disassembled and loaded on to an air force 707 and flown to Iran where it was reassembled.

The obvious purpose in giving the plane was to allow Iran to calibrate their air defense systems. The United States and the Israelis use F-16s.

The US and Israel are aware of this transfer and know that more than half of the original F-16s have been sold to other countries - all for the same reason.

The upside it that the F-16 of 1983 barely resembles current F-16s and that Israel has gussied up their versions with their own electronics.

If Iran is basing their air defense system on the level of 1983 F-16s, they have to make serous estimates about the current capabilities of the F-16. That is serious guesswork.

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Clinton Finally Gets Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

I was very impressed when I read the transcript of the conversation between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of State James Baker, moderated by Charlie Rose.

Four years later, on the issue of Iran, Clinton showed a real understanding of the nuanced and complicated nature of the country and of how decisions are made there. Four years later, she almost gets it.

She explained that there is serious debate inside high levels of leadership within Iran.

She explained that there is a significant part of Iranian leadership that actually wants to be attacked because of the benefits that would emerge after a Western or Israeli attack.

She explained that there are those who know that the Iranian economy could be galloping ahead if only the Iranians backed down - and that backing down is not that big a step considering the benefits that would be reaped.

About all this, Secretary of State Clinton is correct.
Missing from her analysis is the machismo and ego aspect of the equation.

Granted, backing down is simple for some - but for Iran it is nearly impossible. Because the issue and the conflict have become so public, backing down would be tantamount to public humiliation.

The United States may not care much about that part of the equation, but for Iran, it is a really big deal - or in this case, a really big deal breaker.

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Iran Sells Oil to Japan & China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Japan and China have found their way around the problem of importing Iranian oil. South Korea and India are trying to do the same.

The biggest issue they have to contend with is how to cover the insurance of ships carrying Iranian oil. As of July 1, 95% of all oil tankers shipping oil from Iran will lose that coverage because they have been insured in Europe. The total embargo begins in 2 weeks.

The Japanese parliament has allocated $7.6 billion to cover any loss. China has said that they are comfortable with Iran using its ship to transport the oil. Those two countries are the biggest market for Iran totaling 620,000 barrels a day. The breakdown is 120,000 for Japan and 500,000 for China. China does not want to be totally dependent on Saudi oil so it is essential to keep Iranian oil flowing. Japanese import of oil rose 7% this May as compared to May 2011.

The estimated breakdown for June and July from last year to this year is exactly the same.

The most important point is that there are ways around the embargo and Japan and China have already found them while India and South Korea are still seeking ways to import Iranian oil. Where there is a will, there is a way.

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40 Rockets Fall in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday afternoon over 40 rockets were shot into Israel from Gaza. Four people were injured - one moderately and three lightly.

This was the worst single day of rocket fire from Gaza into Israel in years. It happened as the Egyptian presidential election results came rolling in and the day after an al Qaeda attack in the Sinai aimed at Israeli contractors building a security fence.

The attack clearly came after a command was given in Gaza to attack Israel.

The Israelis are evaluating their response.

As they do that, a two year old Palestinian was killed in her home by an explosion. The Palestinians said it was an Israeli airstrike reprisal but the Israeli air force said there were no sorties into Gaza.

The truth is that the girl died from a bomb misfired by the terrorists in their own home.

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Palestinian Poll
By Micah Halpern

June 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) just published a very telling study.

The study showed that a vast number of Palestinians believe that they do not live in freedom and that their leaders and institutions are corrupt. They indicated that they believe that if they vocalize critique, they will be punished. They answered that there is no freedom of press.

72.9% of those asked answered that PA institutions under Abbas are corrupt. 61% answered that institutions under Hamas are corrupt.
Only 23% answered that they live in freedom in the West Bank. Only 15% answered that they live in freedom in Gaza.

This is a damning report especially because half of those asked answered that the solution to their economic problems should be to have talks with Israel and get foreign aid. The question was clearly asked as a ruse. The answer was: fool the world in order to get aid.

There is no doubt that the Palestinians are in very difficult circumstances. The only way for them to get on their feet is to become economically independent and to root out corruption.

Not surprisingly, it has nothing to do with Israel, it is all an internal Palestinian issue.

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Israel May Build Islands
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's cabinet has approved a plan to explore building islands off the coast of Israel. It is a brilliant idea.

The purpose of the islands will be to house infrastructure industry like water purification, electricity generation and fuel refineries. These islands will open large plots of land that until now have been restricted for public works.

Israel needs to make certain that the islands are defensible and that they remain stable. These are not simply factories, they are essential components of Israel without which Israel's very life will be sucked out in a matter of hours. They must be secure from natural threats as well as military and terror threats.

It can be done. The question is: at what cost.

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Egypt Elections
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is voting for their president. Saturday and Sunday are the two runoff days.

This election takes place two days after the Egyptian Supreme Court dissolved the 75% Islamic controlled parliament. The two candidates running for president are polar opposites. One represents the Islamists, the other served as PM under Mubarak and was head of the Egyptian air force.

As of now it looks like voter turnout is lower than it was in the first primaries for president - and significantly lower than the parliamentary elections of six months ago.

This is all expected.

In the first elections for parliament, the people of Egypt rejected
Mubarak. First elections always are like that, a rejection of the past. But as time passes, people realize that the new alternative, in this case the Islamists, know even less about governing than the regime they have just rejected. They return to the middle in the hope that this time around they will be able to oust the extremists they have just voted in to power.

The Supreme Court laid the foundation for this by disbanding the parliament. Now we wait for the results.

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Coup in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt's Supreme Court disbanded the Egyptian parliament, effective immediately.

In one fell swoop the Supreme Court pulled power from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nuri Party, the two Islamic parties now in control of the parliament.

The Supreme Court also struck down a law preventing Mubarak cronies from running. That means that non-Islamic candidate Ahmed Shafik who had served as Mubarak's prime minister can run for office.

Since the original parliamentary elections were held six months ago, support for the Islamic parties has dwindled. They have been seen as partisan and have not been successful at uniting Egyptian. The parliament is fractionalized and has not been effective in --- just about any area.

Disbanding the parliament almost certainly assures that the new election will usher in non-Islamists and guarantee the election of Shafik as president over Mohammed Morsi of the Islamist party.

This was a Supreme Court coup and it was very effective. If the new president can take the reins and really start to lead it will prove to be even more effective.

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A New Cold War
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There has been speculation in certain corridors that the conflict in Syria is causing major dispute between Russia and the US.

The big question is whether this conflict can lead to another Cold War.

The answer is absolutely not .

This conflict could, however, cause some serious instability around the globe. It has divided the major powers. The split puts the United States and the West on one side and Russia, Iran and China on the other.

The two sides have conflicting goals about the world and power and Syria is the pawn that they are fighting over. Syria is just a small example of the difference. Add Iran to the equation and the issue becomes even more pronounced.

Those differences will not create a cold war. All the parties share economic ties. There is much that binds them. They will continue to pursue their own self interests and those interests, despite differences and even conflicts, will ebb and flow.

That is the nature of today's foreign affairs.

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Iran Plans Nuke Sub
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran announced plans to build their own nuclear submarine.

That would be a nuclear powered submarine, not a submarine carrying nuclear weapons.

A nuclear sub can stay underwater for an unlimited amount of time and never need to resurface. It can stay at high speeds all the time and it runs very quietly. A diesel sub can only stay submerged for a few hours at high speed.

Nuclear subs are new and highly sophisticated weapons. They are not nuclear bombs but their nuclear technology makes them very dangerous. The only down side to the nuclear powered sub is that the nuclear core gets hot and gives off a thermal signature unique to nuclear subs. So if you are looking for it - you can find it.

Iran says they are not developing nuclear weapons and that is an outright lie. Nuclear submarines are weapons. Definitely, weapons.

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VIrus is Now on Self Destruct
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Flame computer virus has received a self-destruct command. This Flame is the most recent virus to ravaged Iran.

Symantec issued a statement a few days ago saying that it seems that infected computers have received a command to destroy all traces of the Flame. The computers were also blasted with numerous other confusing commands which will mislead investigators.

It appears that researchers are getting too close to understanding the virus and cracking some of its important keys. When that happens they will be able to unravel the mystery of the actually creator of the virus.

And that fear of being discovered explains why the creators of the Flame virus sent out the command to self-destruct.

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Iran & US Playing Games
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has expressed serious disappointment about Iranian discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Now Iran is telling Russia that not enough preparations have been made to insure a successful meeting in Moscow. The meeting is scheduled for June 18 and 19.

Both Iran and the US are playing games.

The United States wants to make it clear that the international community has dropped the ball and that they are letting Iran slip away without any significant effort or compromise. Iran, on the other hand, is prepping Russia for failure in the talks they plan to host.

Iran wants to get more and the United States wants to give less.

Guess who will get what they want.

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Egypt TV: Beware of Strangers
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We all know that Egypt is in the midst of significant transition.

But, despite it all, they still need tourists to survive.
Tourism is Egypt's largest single economic branch and the industry been hit very hard by the unrest. Tourism is an even larger contributor to the Egyptian GNP than their oil and gas industries.

So imagine my shock when I saw that Egyptian national TV was running ads sponsored by the government to "Beware of foreigners, they may be spies."

Xenophobia in Egypt is off the charts. This is worse than Egyptian hatred of Israel.

After an outcry from people who understood the danger these ads can do, the Egyptian National Television Authority finally pulled the ads. They said they pulled them for fear that they may be misunderstood.

There is very little to misunderstand.

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Palestinian Games At The UN
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The summer has begun and that means that diplomatic games at the UN have also begun.

The Palestinians are testing the waters for September's General Assembly.

Last year they attempted to qualify for full membership. Yesterday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was in Paris. In his press conference with newly elected French President Hollande, Abbas said that the Palestinians will attempt to upgrade their status again, this year, at the GA.

The difference from last year to this is that now the Palestinians want to upgrade to the status of non-member state. That will entitle them signature on numerous treaties and membership on committees.

In order to become a non-member state the PA must be accepted by 2/3 of the General Assembly. Whereas last year in order to get full membership, they needed the approval of the Security Council.

The Palestinians now have observer status. The PLO organization sits as observers in the GA.

A change in status would be a huge boost to the Palestinians internationally. Hollande of France is wholeheartedly behind the move.

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Real Mess In Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian presidential election is just one big mess.

The Supreme Court of Egypt is scheduled to publish a ruling two days before the June 16 - 17 presidential runoff. The ruling will determine if Ahmed Shafik is eligible to run.

Shafik was disqualified under a law passed and accepted by the ruling military. The law said that former cronies of the Mubarak government could not run for president. Ahmed Shafik was prime minister under Mubarak.

Shafik was originally disqualified but appealed and the election committee let him run. The election committee then referred the entire issue to the Supreme Court. Now it gets even more complicated. The head of the election committee, Farouk Sultan, is also president of the Supreme Court.

If the law is constitutional, then Shafik cannot run. If Shafik cannot run, there is no need for a runoff - but there will be the need to redo the elections. If Shafik can run then so can other candidates like Omar Suleiman former head of intelligence was also prevented from running in the primaries because of their affiliation with Mubarak.

Like I said, a real mess.

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Russia Wants Iran In
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Russia suggested that Iran be invited to the next international meeting discussing Syria.

Russia was suggesting that Iran become part of the solution as opposed to part of the problem.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton responded to the suggestion by saying that it is "hard to imagine inviting a country that is stage-managing the Assad regime's assault on its people."

Iran is deeply involved in propping up Assad. Iran is giving Syria intel, training and operational assistance. They are supplying weapons and even tactics and advice.

Clinton thinks that inviting Iran would be preposterous. The problem with Clinton's analysis is that Russia is giving Syria the same exact help that Iran is giving Syria.

Just like Iran, Russia is giving Syria intel, training and operational assistance. They are supplying weapons and even tactics and advice.

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Polls Politics and the Jewish Vote
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Day in, day out, the polls keep coming in. It is, after all, a presidential election year.

The most telling and truthful polls will only emerge a few days after both the Democratic and Republican conventions conclude.

Immediately following each convention the parties get a bump. Then tensions and temperaments calm down and that is when the polls that are worth paying attention to come in.

A few days ago poll came out and caught my eye. It was sponsored by Workmen's Circle aka the Yiddish Workers Association.

The final results of their internet survey of 1000 people showed a 68 / 32 Obama / Romney split. That would put it 10 points off the 2008 78 / 22 Obama / McCain split, and still have two thirds of Jews voting Democratic.

On closer look, that is not what the survey showed at all.
The actual results of the survey showed a 59 / 27 split with 14% undecided. The pollsters just divided the 14% in exact proportions - 59% of 14 going to Obama and 27% of 14 going to Romney.

Undecided voters swing. They can go either way, they do not breakdown proportionally.

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China 23 Yrs After Tiananmen
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the 23rd anniversary of Tiananmen Square.

Those 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations rocked the world - and yet, not much has changed when it comes to human rights in China since then.

The Chinese government has blocked all internet key worlds and searches for anything that could connect to a commemoration of the protests.

Even the numbers 23 - for the anniversary; 6 - for the month of June; 4 - for the date and the words "candles" and the expression
"never forget" have been bared.

Movements that embrace freedom have been harshly oppressed in China over the past 23 years.

The rise of the electronic information age has been very helpful to supporters of freedom. It has enabled a freer flow of information. But the government of China continues to do its best to control that information and to restrict access that the citizens of China might otherwise have.

The Chinese cannot memorialize what happened 23 years ago, but we can. And we should.


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Mubarak in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On October 6, 1981 Hosni Mubarak assumed the presidency of Egypt. On June 2, 2012 he was sentence to life in prison.

Mubarak was one of the most powerful leaders of the Middle East. But situations change as the winds blow in his part of the world. Some of the most stable leaders are ousted - going from feared dictator to reviled exploiter. And indeed, Hosni Mubarak has suffered a tremendous fall.

The Book of Samuel described the fate of many leaders by saying: "Oh - the mighty have fallen."

On hearing the verdict Mubarak must have been both relieved and shocked. Shocked that he was convicted, relieved that he was not to be executed.

We cannot even come close to understanding the second thoughts Mubarak must be having about his handling of the riots in Tahir Square last year. He certainly could have put them down with great violence, but chose not to - never foreseeing that his openness to the protesters would bring him down.

The sons of Mubarak were exonerated for the events that took place during those few weeks. Perhaps that gives the former dictator of Egypt some solace.

We have no idea of what lies ahead for an Egypt without Mubarak. One thing is certain. Those winds continue to blow and they will bring much more change to the country Mubarak so loved.

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Egypt Stops Gas to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is prohibiting gasoline from entering Gaza.

This is the third stoppage in a month. The gas the shortage has become a crisis in Gaza. Electricity has been reduced from the generating station to 18 hours a day. The generator is powered by gasoline.

The gasoline is sitting in the port and has not been permitted to make its way to Gaza. Months ago Israel gave the green light and is now hands off. It is Egypt that is stopping the flow of gasoline to Gaza.

The crisis is even more serious because illegal gas has not been smuggled as frequently as it has in the past which means that the shortage is greater than the figures show.

But interestingly, no one is shouting at Egypt. Qatar delivered the gasoline. Its vessels now sit in port. One of the reasons for the silence could be because the Egyptians are to blame.

Could it be that the world is not interested when Egyptians oppress Palestinians?

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US Wants Daqduq From Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Moussa Daqduq is on the US wanted list. He is living free and high on the hog in Iraq. The United States has asked for his extradition.

Daqduq is a member of Hezbollah, he is also an Iranian agent. He was in US custody as of March 2007, ten weeks after he planned a very well executed attack on US soldiers and leaders in Karbala Provincial Joint Command Center. The attackers wore US-like uniforms, had US IDs and drove US vehicles - and then they murdered five US citizens.

Daqduq admitted that he planned and executed the attack. In an act of friendship and diplomacy, Daqduq was handed over to Iraqi custody and tried by Iraq. And then the Iraqi court dismissed his case for lack of evidence - despite the confession.

In Iraqi law all evidence permitted into court must be collected by Iraqi inspectors. Ali Moussa Daqduq gave his confession to the United States.

The US wants Daqduq back. This is a test of the relationship between the US and Iraq.

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Russia Delivers Arms To Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has condemned Russia for shipping arms to Syria.

A Russian cargo ship docked and unloaded massive amounts of weapons and then headed on to Greece.

The most important point to note in this scenario is that Russia is still selling high tech weapons to Syria. By doing so, they are telegraphing to the world that they do not believe that the regime of Bashar Assad is going to fall.

Russia also recently signed a fighter jet deal with Syria and will soon be delivering the YAK fighter jet to the Syrian air force. The YAK is one of Russia's most advanced weapons. They would not hand weapons of this caliber over to a teetering leader holding on by the skin of his teeth.

Russia has a very different point of view from the United States on what is happening in Syria.

When asked, the Russians cynically respond by saying that selling and delivering weapons to Syria is not illegal - it is just against the wishes of the United States.

Most significantly, selling to the Syrians is in the best interest of Russia.

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Flame is Attacking Iran's Oil
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Flame computer virus is only now showing its power.

We now know that Flame can hijack any computer. We now know it can relay any and all information. And we now know that it can sabotage - everything.

It can also connect to any blue tooth phone or devise around the infected computer.

Iran says that Flame is now under control. I highly doubt that.

This program is the second stage of the Viper virus which struck a few months ago. At that time the Oil Ministry of Iran was taken off line to quarantine and destroy Viper. It failed.

Flame built on viruses that were already in place. These viruses appear to be quarantined - when found, but they simply become dormant. At that point they are almost undetectable.

Right now the 2.2 million barrels of oil extracted daily by Iran are in jeopardy. Trying to protect their oil industry by taking them off line as was done on Wednesday would strike another huge blow to Iran's economy.

Most analysts are looking at the nuclear implications. Yes, those are certainly significant. But now the Flame virus has attacked Iran's only real industry - oil.

The Flame virus is not only extremely effective, it is also extremely dangerous.

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Talks w Iran Failed
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Iran met with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, the 5+1 as they are called. They met in Baghdad, Iraq.

After two days of meetings they concluded that they would meet again. This time they would meet in June, in Moscow.

Everyone assumed that the decision to meet again illustrated that the meeting in Baghdad was a success. But now more details are emerging.

The Obama administration was hoping that the small group pseudo secret meetings that have been taking place over the past five months would bear their fruit at this meeting. When asked, Jalili, the

Iranian head negotiator, said he had no knowledge of the meetings.

The Americans tried to shake his memory. Remember the Paris meetings with Dr Ali Bagheri, Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. And remember the Vienna dialogue with Hassan Rahani. Jalili said he had no idea what they were talking about and that this discussion started from square one.

This was a major blunder by the US and by the 5+1. They let Iran waste months of their time. Ana all the while the US thought that there was progress. Call it wishful thinking, diplomacy style.

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Olympics & Ramadan
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Olympics begin in London on July 27 in London.

The world is revving up - but Muslim athletes are in a real quandary.

This year Ramadan begins on July 20 and ends August 18. Ramadan is a month long fast. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night. For workouts and competitions and in order to maximize energy, output and strength, an athlete must east.

So what is a Muslim athlete to do?

One or two have said that they will delay their fast. Islamic law permits a Muslim to delay their Ramadan fast and make it up any time through the 8th month - the month before the next Ramadan. Provided, of course, the postponement is for a valid reason.

The reason cited in the texts is sickness. Muslim Olympic athletes will have to inquire whether their prep and competition is a valid reason to delay their fast. They are certainly healthy now, but they could cause grave damage to themselves if they fasted while continuing their regimen.

The athletes who compete in Olympic Games bring great honor to Islam and that, in and of itself, is often reason for a valid exception in Islamic law.

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Economics & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

As expected, the 1st quarter numbers are in for Israel’s exports. Israeli exports to Turkey dropped by 26% - no surprise there.

Also fallen during the same period were exports to the United States, with a 24% drop. The reason for that drop is a change in drug imports in the US.

Interestingly, at the same time exports to the UK and China all increased dramatically. China increased their imports from Israel by 15% which amounts to $540 million while England increased their import of Israel products by $650 million which is a whopping 84% increase over the 1st quarter of last year.

These figures are important – they demonstrate economic growth in Israel. This is especially significant in a world economy that is, for the most part, suffering.

Despite the issues it confronts Israel continues to export and to be a player in world markets. Turkey wants to try to punish Israel, but none the less, they still continue to import product only in a smaller quantity. Turkey still needs Israel.

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Desecrating a Synagogue
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An ancient synagogue 2.5 miles north of Jericho was vandalized. Swastikas were scrawled on the walls and the phrase "Palestine is Ours" was written in Arabic.

The Naaran synagogue dates back 1500 years to the period between the 5th and 6th centuries. It has a magnificent mosaic floor and featured on that floor are the Hebrew words Shalom al Y'israel - Peace Upon Israel.

Why would anyone desecrate a synagogue? And why an ancient synagogue?

The name Naaran is found in the Bible in I Chronicles 7:28. This synagogue is evidence that Israel has real historic roots - right there, right in that spot.

There are many who have tried to revise history. Official Palestinian sites assert that there was no Jewish presence in the region and none the Temple Mount.

The Palestinians live by a rule: He who owns history owns the present and the future.

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Egypt Elections
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The ballots have all been cast. Now Egypt and the world await the results. They are expected on Tuesday.

The top two contenders will square off in three week - the runoff is scheduled for June 16 and 17.

Over the past two days Egyptians went to the polls. There were 13,000 polling stations. There are 83 million Egyptians.

Speculation is that 20 million voted. I have heard that 50 million Egyptian voters were eligible, which seems very unlikely.

The Muslim Brotherhood is claiming that their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, has the lead. It is impossible to tell. There are no real exit polls. What can be said is that certain districts most certainly preferred Morsi while others preferred Amr Moussa, the secular candidate.

It will all remain unclear until the announcement is made on Tuesday. And even then I am certain that there will be irregularities in the collection and counting of ballots.

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Throwing Shoes in Islam
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian elections began yesterday and continue today.

When presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq came to cast his ballot he was greeted with a barrage of shoes and stones. Shafiq was prime minister under Mubarak. He was also the former head of the air force, as was Mubarak.

Stones are obvious - but what is the significance of the shoes? In Islam, shoes are a classic curse.

Shoes are covered with the dirt of the earth. In Islam one removes shoes and washes their feet before prayer. The traveler is covered with the dirt of the road and everyone must clean their feet before prayer.

Throwing shoes is throwing all the dirt - physical and metaphorical, on the target. This time the target was Shafiq.

The shoe throw is not unusual in Islamic culture, it is a matter of practice. President George Bush was the target of two shoe throws. Ahmadinejad has also been the caught in footwear crosshairs.

I do not have high hopes for the election. However, I can say that today women are encouraged to vote in Egypt. That is a huge step forward.

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New Tone From Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's official media has struck a very different tone these past few weeks.

Iranian media has reiterated that the person who makes policy in Iran is not Ahmadinejad, but the Grand Ayatollah the Supreme Leader - and that the Supreme leader has praised President Obama and is looking forward to signing the deal with the United Nations and to working together with the community of nations.

They have also been repeating the Supreme Leader's religious/legal stance about nuclear weapons.

They even quoted the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, just returned from Lebanon where he met with the leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, saying that he told Hezbollah not to attack Israel.

To top it all off, the official Iranian press has even been hinting that dialogue with the United States Is no longer out of bounds.
This is an entirely new face of Iran.

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Iran Finds Oil in Caspian
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just discovered a very large oil deposit in the Caspian Sea. It is the first new oil to be discovered in the Caspian in over 100 years. Estimates place the find at 10-15 billion barrels.

The Iranians were drilling deep. They went 1.5 miles down in very windy areas that had until now discouraged drilling. They were actually looking for natural gas and they found crude oil.

This will amount to 7-10% of Iran's reserves and it will give them a huge boost at a time where they really need it.

The oil deposit is located in an area in the North far away from the Gulf and from the areas patrolled and monitored by the international community. The Caspian Sea provides a great set of outlets for the oil that will allow for the smuggling of natural resources right under the watchful eyes of international observers.

All in all, this is great news - for Iran.

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Iran's Budget
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran passed their 2013 budget. It is equivalent to a whopping $462 billion.

This new budget is a reduction of 9% from the 2012 allocation. Iran is tightening its belt. Next year will be more difficult for them, especially if the cost of oil drops and the Iranians know that full well.

If, however, the cost of oil stays at $100/ barrel Iran will more than likely have more than enough to cover the budget.

That is what happened in the last quarter of 2011. The sanctions began to work and more and more countries began applying pressure on Iran. Just as the Western world began to believe that there was a chance that serious pressure could be brought upon the Iranians - the price of oil increased and so did Iran's profits.

Just this week Iraq overtook Iran as the second largest oil exporter in the region. And the price of oil per barrel has continued to drop and remains below $100.

These are signs that we must monitor closely.

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Iran Wants to Sue Google
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran threatened to sue Google.

From the Iranian point of view, the suit has great merit and touches upon a critical issue. It involves Iran's identity and her pride.

It is about her history and about her name.

In their Google Maps section, Google has renamed the peninsula that had once been called the Persian Gulf and Peninsula. They are now calling it the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula.

This battle over names has been an ongoing and fierce fight in the region. It was the cause the cancelation of the Pan Islamic games.
Arab countries in the region insist on calling the water and region the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran thinks otherwise.

The reality is that Google can call it whatever name it wants - provided it is an established name. And Iran has the right to block Google and Google Maps and prevent it from being received on Iranian computer networks.

But that is, to their chagrin, all the recourse available to the Iranians.

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End of the Egypt Gas Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ampal - American Israel Corp., the Israeli energy company, owns 12.5% of East Mediterranean Gas, the Egyptian owned company that exports natural gas to Israel and Jordan.

Yesterday Ampal wrote off their investment and gave it up. They have been invested in the company for 20 years.

Their pipeline was being bombed on an almost monthly basis. And when the first quarter figures came in, it became apparent that Ampal was taking big losses. Some tanking was expected but the dollar figures more than proved the point. Last year Ampal made $17 million in the first quarter. This year's first quarter losses showed $215 million.

No company can justify that loss.

Ampal, the Israelis and the American investors all need to cut their losses and run.

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Syria: Oil Pipeline Blows Up
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There has been an explosion in the oil pipeline in Syria. The bombing was originally reported by Syrian rebels and then it was reported in the Syrian press. The press also reported that pipelines had been bombed by rebel forces on April 21 and April 29.

There are several important issues here. Syria is not a player in the world oil market so the destruction of these oil lines will have no impact on world prices. Syrian production is already at 30% of what it was before the rebellion.

The explosion/s will, however, have a serious impact on Syrian cash flow. Oil is extremely fungible and the Syrians need the cash so they need to export whatever they can. The EU has a block against Syrian oil.

Convenience in shipping is very important and this oil is easily piped to the ports, loaded onto tankers and shipped. The best partner for oil from Syria is Iran they use tankers which are flags for hire. They get the crude and take it where it needs to go. But right now many Iranian tankers are filled with oil and sitting, waiting for a port of call to unload their black gold.

It seems that the pressure being applied to Iran is impacting, perhaps even more strongly and effectively, on Syria.

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Epidemics in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is suffering from a double health crisis. This kind of public health disaster has the potential to devastate not only Egypt but the entire region, including Israel.

Egyptian animals and livestock are suffering from both Foot and Mouth Disease and from Avian Flu.

Millions of animals are sick at this stage, there is almost no stopping the diseases. The Avian Flu has been spread by animals infecting humans. Egypt has had 60 deaths so far and almost 200 people are known to be infected with the deadly flu. More than any other county outside of Indonesia.

The Foot and Mouth Disease was imported from Libya during the uprising when
more than 10% of Libyan livestock were killed because of it. In order to avoid the losses herds were hurried across the border into Egypt and now much of the meat is contaminated.

The only method of stopping these diseases, outside of mass slaughter, is to isolate or inoculate. Because of the current status of the army and the lack of any faith in government there is almost no chance that anything will be done. $1.8 million worth of shots arrived in March, but they have barely been used.

This could destroy the protein sources of the region and spill back into Libya, Sudan, Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.

This is serious.

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Egypt Pres Candidate Calls Israel the Enemy
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential front runner Abul Fotouh said, in a late Saturday night interview, that the treaty with Israel is a security risk to Egypt.

He said: "It should be revised."

In an earlier debate with Amr Mousa, another presidential contender, Abul Fotouh called Israel "the enemy." He also called Israel a racist state. Speaking about the treaty he said: "It is a treaty that forbids Egypt from exercising full sovereignty in the Sinai and allows Israelis to enter Sinai without visas, while they need visas for Cairo."

His take on Osama bin Laden is the quintessential example of the world view of this man who may yet become the next president of Egypt. Abul Fotouh refused to condemn bin Laden as a terrorists. He said that if bin Laden was tried by a real court it would be different. But there was no trial. He was not found guilty. He was not a terrorist.

That is his logic.

Abul Fotouh is called the liberal Muslim.

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Moody's Downgrades Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week I was critical of Turkey and of the Turkish economy. The S&P had downgraded them and I explained that it was a direct result of their economic and diplomatic POV. That POV, I explained, made them an economic risk - or at least no longer an exceptional economic choice. As I wrote, Turkey went ballistic over the downgrade.

Well, at the end of last week Moody's - which is the other index or rating company, downgraded Israel from stable to negative.

Israel was downgraded for several reasons. A high percentage of domestic bank loans to huge Israeli corporations was one very important reason.

Geopolitical tensions was another important reason given for the downgrade. These tensions make international investment in Israel risky. Moody's was referring to the Arab Spring and to threats from Iran.

The report stated that in the past these tensions have not stopped Israel from growing, that Israel has bounced back and has been able to show creativity and economic stability despite the risk factors. This is a critical factor in understanding the position of Israel within the region.

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Saudis Pledge $2 Bil to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia just committed to a gargantuan aid package to Egypt. I know, I know --- didn't Saudi Arabia make the same pledge last year?
Last year the Saudis pledged 3.7 billion but, because of the turbulence in Egypt, they never followed thru with the money.

This year, on Thursday, Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million in aid. They also committed to depositing $1 billion into the Egyptian Central Bank.

And, as if that was not enough, Saudi Arabia committed to supplying Egypt with $250 million worth of butane gas which is used for cooking.

Egypt has also asked the IMF for $3.2 billion in aid.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Egypt in a few weeks. Saudi Arabia will want to make certain that Egypt is stable before they send over that hard cold cash.

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India Just Dissed the US
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking

Just hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wrapped up a two day diplomatic blitz in India, a huge bombshell drops.

The Clinton visit was all about getting on board against Iran. Clinton was pressuring India to restrict their oil imports from Iran.

Here is the bomb: Within hours after the visit, India and Iran signed a deal - a trade deal. Ostensibly, the deal is for India to provide sugar, rice and soybeans to Iran. In reality, it is a barter for oil.

Iran gives oil to India. India pays for the oil with sugar, rice and soybeans. This way, Iran does not have rupee problems and currency issues - and India is not in trouble for violating international sanctions by giving Iran US dollars.

We know this is happening because Iran has always been skittish about taking rupees. In February Iran took payment of only 45% in currency for their oil shipments.

This is a classic diplomacy story with the United States. Allies agree with the United States when they talk to the United States, and when the conversation is over, they turn around and do whatever is in their own best interests. The US has not yet learned that lesson

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Syria Getting Worse
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The rebels in Syria are striking at military targets. A Syrian army convoy was hit by a roadside bomb Wednesday injuring 6 soldiers.

The report was issued by a foreign journalist traveling with UN observers. The bomb exploded seconds after the UN convoy passed. The UN observers and the journalist had a perfect view of the explosion and its aftermath.

Roadside bombs are a menace. They were the most dangerous tool used by al Qaeda against US troops in Iraq. They were used against civilians and against pilgrims.

The use of a roadside bomb by Syrian rebels is a classic tool taken from the al Qaeda handbook.

This bomb was very sophisticated. It was remote control operated. The controller was within eye view of the explosion and ignited the bomb either by radio frequency or by cell phone.

If road side bombs become common place in Syria the cost in lives could be extremely high.

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New Unity Gov in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 9,2012

I've Been Thinking:

Here is my insight into the new unity government in Israel.

The newly elected head of Kadima is a perfect partner for the Likud leader. Shaul Mofaz is a hawk on issues of security. He served as defense minister under Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and was a successful chief of staff of the IDF, Israel's army. He is Iranian by birth, born in Teheran, to parents who came, originally, from Isfahan. His given name was Shahram Mofazzez Zadeh, a very ethnic sounding name - Shaul Mofaz has the ring of a true Israeli name.

Mofaz deeply understands Iranians, not just their language but also their mind set. He has a more liberal point of view than does Netanyahu on economics and social welfare. They are the perfect counter balance to each other.

Kadima is really a center- center/left party. And Likud is center -center/right. The coalition they have formed is now strongly center based. It is so strongly center that even if a party or two on either side of the spectrum should decide to leave the coalition it will have no impact on the stability of the government.

This is not an insider baseball issue. The ramifications of this newly formed coalition in Israel will not affect only Israeli society. This broad unity government under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu and then Shaul Mofaz has carte blanch on issues connected to security, Iran, and the Palestinians peace process -issues of vital import to the greater region and to the West.

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Warren Weinstein in Real Trouble
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda released a new video yesterday which is now on Youtube. On the video 70 year old captive American human rights consultant Warren Weinstein sits crossed legged and begs President Obama for his life.

The video has the prisoner telling Obama that his life is in his hands and that he, like the president, is the father of two daughters. He asks the president to do what the terrorists ask.

Weinstein was kidnapped in Pakistan last August and this is the first real evidence that he is still alive. His wife in Maryland was relieved to see that, despite losing weight, her husband Warren seemed to be otherwise okay.

Kidnappings are common, but most of the time, the kidnappers demand a ransom. The kidnappers are mostly tribal. This is a kidnapping with a twist. This is an al Qaeda ala Khalid Sheik Mohammed style kidnapping, akin to the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl.

There is no way to negotiate with al Qaeda.

I hope and pray that this kidnap victim will have a different fate.
I hope but I am not hopeful.

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We Gave KSM a Stage
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

No one should be surprised that Khalid Sheik Mohamed and his cohorts are using their trial to advance their own agenda.

Of course that is what they are doing. The United States presented these ultimate thugs with a stage and with an open microphone.

Did the powers that be in the super power called the United States think that after nine years in prison KSM would be rehabilitated, that he would suddenly respect the institutions of Western liberal democracy and humbly submit to its august power. This is the same man who masterminded the 9-11 attacks and beheaded Daniel Pearl because of what the Wall Street Journal symbolically represented.

The delusional decision makers, those who determined that an open trial was an appropriate forum, should be ashamed. They should be reprimanded, charged with incompetence for putting 9-11 victims and families through an unnecessary and pre-ordained ordeal, for subjecting them to the language and actions of the men who have now twice desecrated them and their loved ones.

This was the moment the terrorists were yearning for, it was another dream come true.

In the eyes of the terrorists the only way it could have been better was if they were given a totally public trial in civilian court.
There were celebrations across terrorist networks as reports circulated of their comrades-in-arms spitting, not only on the graves of the deceased, but also in the face of the US judicial system.

These thugs have once again become terrorist role models.
But this time it is we who put them in the limelight.

Shame, shame, on us.

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Clinton to India -Stop Importing Iran Oil
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is spending Sunday and Monday in India. According to an aid travelling with her, at the top of the agenda is convincing India to reduce their import of oil from Iran.

This is a very noble task. It is also herculean and an almost impossible feat to accomplish.

Of course, India will agree to curtail or limit or reduce or all of the above their import of oil from Iran - but they cannot.

India is an economic beast, they are the second largest nation in the world with well over a billion people - and they need oil.

Anytime extra oil pops up on the open market India gobbles it up.

This is a clear example of ideas coming into conflict with reality. India favors isolating Iran but they need the oil and cannot risk a lull. So India will continue to quietly import their oil from anywhere, including Iran.

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Turkey Downgraded by S&P
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Standard and Poor's is the most influential rating agency in the world. They rate countries and they rate their credit.

This week Turkey was dropped from "positive" to "stable." And if you had asked me, I would have said that I was surprised it was not dropped even lower. Turkey would have dropped even more had it not been for some very dynamic economic legislation.

This will certainly drop the credit rating of Turkey and that drop in credit rating will immediately impact on their interest which means that the cost of their loans will skyrocket.

The Turks are livid - on the same day the S&P dropped their rating, they improved the rating on Greece.

Turkey is claiming bias and the president of Turkey has announced that Turkey no longer relies on the S&P.

The reality is that Turkey only had minimal growth of 4% in 2011 and expect only 2% this year. Exports are only 24% of their economy and prices increased 11% in April. China holds most of their debt and the debt is in the form of a short term loan.

Turkey can be as angry as they want but they are in bad economic shape and it ony looks worse in the short term future.

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Iran Blames Israel and the US
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Vice President of Iran just wound up a visit to Hezbollah-controlled Southern Lebanon and Southern Beirut.

Muhammad Reva Rahimi stood on the Lebanese side of the border and looked over into Israel. He spoke about the need to continue resistance which, in his terms, means terror. He said that Israel is doomed.

Rahimi met with Hezbollah leader Sheik Hass Nasrallah.

Dignitaries do not regularly meet with Hezbollah. Only Iranians does, because Iran is an ally of Hezbollah.

It should be noted, however, that according to a leak that was spread earlier this week EU representatives met with Hezbollah in order to see how Hezbollah can use their influence in Syria and Southern Lebanon to maintain clam.

When it became obvious and clear that indeed it was true that Hezbollah and the European Union met, Israel blew a gasket -diplomatically speaking.

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Tough Day in the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday was a slice of life day in the Middle East.

On Wednesday we were given a glimpse of both the deep seated problems and dangers inherent in the region as well as the topsy turvy nature of today's Middle East.

It was a very bloody day.

In Syria, opponents to the regime successfully killed 20 military personnel including two colonels. It is the largest number of deaths in any single strike to date since the revolt against the regime began.

In Egypt, 20 protesters were murdered by a group of hooligans.

Witnesses report that the protesters were sitting down when a group of thugs emerged and violently attacked them. Conventional wisdom is that these thugs were part of an organized, civilian, plain clothed group of police and military. They were sent in to intimidate - and ended up killing.

In Syria the attack was against the military. In Egypt the attack was against the protesters. Situation and places could have easily been inverted.

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Violating Ceasefire in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head UN international observer in Syria made a very important observation yesterday.

He said that both sides are violating the ceasefire.

Yes, Assad's men are violating the ceasefire - but so, too, are the rebels.

This conflict is more complicated than it appears. Most of the rebels are from al Qaeda and most of the recent attacks have been perpetrated by them.

The observers will increase their number over the next few weeks from 28 to 300. But this will not bring a ceasefire. The job of the observers is to observe.

Most of the real rebels have gone back to school, fled, been killed or arrested.

The Syrian army has successfully cracked down and destroyed almost all local rebel movements. Now we are witnessing a new style of attack - car bombs and suicide bombs and attacks at large populated hangouts.

These are all al Qaeda tactics.

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US Deploys Stealth Fighter Near Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The US has deployed a set of F-22's, also known as Raptors, in the United Arab Emirates, the UAE. The report comes via the Iranian Defense Minister, Ahmad Vahidi.

Vahidi is quoted in the Iranian press calling the deployment harmful to the region and part of a psychological war. The planes, according to the report, are based in Al Dafra Air Base.

While we may find out many details from the Iranians, all the information we receive must be carefully evaluated. There is no reason, however, to assume that this piece of information is incorrect.

The F-22 Raptor is a stealth superfighter. It cannot be detected by radar. It is illegal to sell these planes to anyone - even to the closest allies of the United States.

The F-22 is one of the US's secret weapon. Putting a group of these planes in the UAE at Al Dafra puts them 200 miles from Iran. That means that the United States is literally a few hundred seconds away from striking at the their target.

This is what is called a major game changer. Now Iran must assume that the United States has the element of surprise - until now, Iran never believed that the United States could surprise them.

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Anniversary of Bin Laden
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday is the anniversary of the assassination of Osama bin Laden.
On May 2, 2011 the United States embarked upon a spectacular mission that resulted in the killing of the world's #1 terrorist leader.

And now, one year later, the West should be on high alert.

The terrorist world is highly aware of anniversaries. Terrorists preach, talk and write about anniversaries - about the events and the players. And they sermonize about exacting revenge against their enemy.

Over the past month al Qaeda has let loose a non-stop program of propaganda about exacting revenge against America and the West and anyone who could be blamed for killing Osama bin Laden.

There is no actionable intel offering details or targets - but there is no doubt that there are groups working to strike out at us this week. Even more problematic that the group effort is the lone wolf -and there are certainly line wolves who are planning attacks, too.
Americans, Westerners, be wary, be alert, stay smart.

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Saudis & GCC to Confront Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Council, composed of six Gulf states, is starting to organize a significant front to protect itself from two threats on the horizon.

The first threat is Iran and Iranian nuclear aspiration.
The second threat is the Arab Spring.

The Saudi deputy foreign minister outlined their strategy saying that the GCC must coordinate defense and intelligence resources.

The GCC, composed of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Oman, is the most organized subgroup within the Arab world. They are Western allied and feel a great threat from Iran and Islamists movements. They view the Arab Spring as an Islamist cast off of Western influence. And they understand that the obsession the United States has with liberalizing the Arab world and calling for Arab elections is catastrophic to their own point of view and positions of power.

The GCC sees all Iranian moves, including the desire for nuclear technology, as a power grab and an attempt to inject Shiite control over the region.

The GCC seems to have a very well defined and informed strategy and may be one of the only groups with a workable plan to repel the Iranian threat.

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Necrophilia in Egypt and Islam
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian parliament is debating the "Farewell Intercourse Law."

This is a law that will, if passed, permit men to practice necrophilia. According to the Farewell Intercourse Law a man will be permitted to man have sex with his dead wife within six hours of her death.

I couldn't make this up.

The legal precedent is brought forth by an Iman from Morocco named Azamazi. Last year this Imam explained that the death of a spouse does not end the marriage, that in Islam, husband and wife are married in the afterlife. If they are married in the afterlife they will have sex there - so when one is alive and one is dead, that is just a transition status.

The expression Azamazi used was that necrophilia is "halal." In Arabic and in Islamic law halal is kosher. It means that it is acceptable in Islamic law.

Imam Azamazi also taught women can do the same with their husbands -which is highly unlikely. The Imam concluded his fatwa, his religious ruling, by saying that this behavior, even if permissible, is not advisable.

The parliamentary debate revolved around whether the world will look askance if Egypt passes this law - and if the Egyptians should care about what the world thinks.

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Egypt Elections Muslims Unite
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian election for president is taking place next month. As of now 13 candidates have been approved to run.

Yesterday a panel of Islamic leaders endorsed Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate. The reason the committee formed and then issued an endorsement is that Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh recently split from the Muslim Brotherhood and is mounting a more practical and more realistic Islamic campaign.

The two candidates are certain to split the Muslim Brotherhood vote.

This announcement and the meeting that preceding it were meant to undercut Abolfotoh's campaign.

The campaign is not liberal by any means - but it is more practical. That might just speak to Egyptian Islamic voters. And if it does, then the Muslim Brotherhood will watch the presidency slip through their fingers

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Saudi Revolt: Girls Basketball
By Micah Halpern

Blog
Thursday April 26, 3012

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a minor revolution in Saudi Arabia - and it may have major results. No one in the West is talking about it, but I'll tell you what happened.

A school for girls in Saudi Arabia officially erected a set of basketball hoops and is permitting the girls to play during their spare time. It is the first state run school officially permitting sports for girls, the first school to say that sports is a proper use of student time.

This is no small event in Saudi education. It means that the old school attitude towards girls and modern physical activity is being chipped away. Female sports means placing an emphasis on things which have until this very moment been taboo in Islamic culture.

There will most certainly be a backlash. I expect some violence and serious rhetorical attacks against Saudi leadership, against the parents and against the girls themselves.

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New Cyber Attack Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran was hit by another computer virus. This is a Viper virus. Once it opens it propagates and continues to grow in every file that is opened.

The Viper targeted oil production and oil transfer components of Iran. It also struck the Oil Ministry. On Sunday the ministry shut down and took numerous computers offline to protect its programs.
The official response from Iran is that no data was lost.

That is a ridiculous assertion - the Viper and viruses like the Stuxnet and DUQU which previously struck Iran are not about data.
The purpose of these viruses is to corrupt the command system. The viruses literally have minds of their own. When you want A, you get Z instead.

This virus, the Viper, is a very bold strike against the very soft belly of Iran. Until now the cyber war was against nuclear facilities and research - annoying and a setback to "the cause."

This attack strikes at the heart of the Iran's financial sources and livelihood. Fifty of the country's most gifted techi's were summoned to the Oil Ministry on Tuesday to put their heads together to solve the crisis and make certain that the oil industry is safe.

I am curious to see if they will succeed.

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Turkey Isolating Israel at NATO
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

NATO is having a summit in Chicago on May 20-21.

It seems that that Turkey is making it clear that Israel should be banned from the summit.

Behind closed doors Turkey is saying that Israel has not apologized for the flotilla.

Officials of NATO have said that the purpose of the organization is inclusive - and Israel is part of a subgroup of regional committees within NATO.

Officially, Turkey is saying that they have not made any appeal to NATO on the subject. The reality is that Turkey is continuing a campaign to isolate Israel. They are doing their best to try to coordinate condemnation of Israel.

It appears that, this time at least, NATO is not biting at the bait.

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Egypt Stops Israel Gas
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Of course, things could be worse but - the relationship between Israel and Egypt has reached a thirty year low. Egypt has officially cancelled their natural gas deal with Israel. The new policy went into effect on Thursday and was not made public until Sunday.

Thirty three years ago Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty and part of the treaty was that Egypt would provide natural gas for a predetermined price.

Since the ousting of Mubarak the pipeline has been attacked fourteen times. And since the ousting there has been massive public rejection of the special relationship and treaty that Egypt has with Israel.
So they shut the pipeline down.

This will have a huge impact on Egypt. It will set them back economically and will send the wrong message to corporations and countries thinking of doing business with them. The Egyptians are sending out a message saying that they are not reliable. The only country that may view this as a good thing is Iran - and Egypt is unlikely to accept investment from their arch enemy Iran even if they are starving.

The occasion was used as a platform for the candidates running for president in the Egyptian election. They each weighed in on the topic and, not surprisingly, praised the decision.

Consider this typical of current decision making in Egypt. We can look forward to more of the same.

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Church Bombed in Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last night a church was fire bombed in Khartoum, Sudan.

Tensions in Khartoum, a very valuable oil city and important region, are fierce. There is no doubt that the reason for the conflict is oil - but the reason for targeting a church is religious.

The church is a symbol of outsiders, of non-Muslims. The tension emerges because both Muslims and Christians in Khartoum are locals.

We are not talking about Western missionaries, but still, the Christians of Khartoum are being labeled as interlopers and told that they do not belong.

So the church was targeted and it was bombed.

Once again I ask: Where is the Christian world, where is the Western world, how can this clearly targeted attack pass without no comment let alone outcry from Westerners around the world?

As with the persecution of Christians in Egypt, I feel as if I am a lonely voice howling in the wind.

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Palestinians Say They Struck Oil
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There have been several reports over the past few days that the Palestinian Authority has begun oil exploration in Ramallah.

I have not been able to verify these reports.

I can say that it sounds farfetched.

Even if someone has set up what appears to be a drill site it is highly unlikely that there is any oil in Ramallah - other, of course, than olive oil. World class geologists have combed the region and found no oil.

More importantly, Ramallah is on a mountain range. And oil exploration is extremely risky and very expensive. I do not see any serious oil groups taking that risk in a location that is such an obvious non-starter.

There is a back story and a motivation for the announcements. The Palestinians want to make it appear as if they found something --- something very valuable--- something the Israelis could not find and - this is the most important part - that the oil belongs to the them, the Palestinians, and not to the Israelis.

But it is all still highly unlikely.

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The Games Continue w/ Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The game continues.

As I reminder: Several days ago I wrote that Iran was outsmarting the EU by making the first move and cutting off oil sales and forcing them to scramble to find new suppliers before Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain were going to cut themselves off from Iranian oil.

In essence, Iran was cutting the European Union off before the EU total boycott went into effect and cut them off.

Then yesterday the Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Ghassemi denied reports claiming that Iran stopped supplying oil to Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain. He said that Iran sells to all of Europe except France and England.

All this is a smoke screen. Iran needs Europe to know that their oil flow starts and stops as easily as the turning of a spigot.

Iran's game is to clearly say that they have actually made money since the embargo. They claim to have earned $14 billion more than in this period last year. How could that be the case with the embargo in full swing?

There are two reasons: Reason one is that the price of oil has increased, so even if they are selling less oil, they can still be making more money. Reason two is that China and India are picking up every barrel of slack. Every barrel that Iran produces has a buyer. And China and India do not care about the international embargo.

Just yesterday China announced that they disagree with the United States policy of punishing people who do business with Iran.

Here you have it, the game of international diplomacy.

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Unusual Guests to the Temple Mt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem received two very special guests.


The guests traveled together and prayed together, one of them actually led the prayers.
Who were these guests? They were Ali Gomma, the Grand Mufti of Egypt and Ghazi bin Muhammad, Prince of Jordan. The prince is the first cousin of King Abdullah II.

An aide to the Grand Mufti said that he did not enter Israel or get a visa from either the border authority or the Interior Ministry. That means he came in with the prince on his private helicopter.

Last week another prince visited Al Aqsa. That time it was the son of Abdullah II.

There are several reasons for these sudden visits to the Mosque. Most importantly, Jordan is exerting its religious authority over the Temple Mount which was in their control until 1967. The Jordanians still have a major say in its operation - Israel prefers Jordanian control to Palestinian control over this very holy site.

There are also ugly rumors circulating that Israel is causing damage to the Temple Mount, especially at the Mugabri Gate. The rumors are untrue and unfounded and the revered guests are able to report back about the situation.

The Temple Mount is an extremely sensitive site. Anger over the site could instigate a war in the Islamic world. It is in the best interest of everyone to make certain that, despite rumors and propaganda, all is well cared for and in order.

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Deporting a UK Imam
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like it is finally happening. Abu Qatada, an Imam in England, may finally be deported to Jordan.

Jordan has convicted Qatada of terror attacks. Court papers in Spain and England have submitted that he is a major al Qaeda figure. There is no doubt that he certainly preaches the message of al Qaeda.

Until now Qatada avoided extradition, but the momentum of the courts is now in full swing - they seem to have all their papers in order and are confident that this terror spewing Imam will be deported.

Abu Qatada is a perfect example of an Al Qaeda leader. He teaches and preaches hatred and violence in the name of Islam. When he gets back to Jordan he will be retried for previous acts of terror.

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Iran is Courting Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is attempting to mend bridges with Egypt.

There has never been any love lost between the two countries, primarily because they have diametrically opposed stands on Islam.

And then after the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, the spilt became impossible to breach.

Iran actually named a square after the Sadat assassin and proclaimed him a hero.

But yesterday the Egyptian press was the guests of the Islamic Republic in Teheran. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi met with the Egyptian media and talked about nuclear issues.
The Iranian FM promised that Iran would provide nuclear technology and expertise to Egypt - but under supervision.

This is actually Iran's ultimate goal. Iran wants to provide nuclear technology to any and every country that asks for it throughout the world.

Iran wants to remove the United States from the global picture.

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Sinai Heating Up
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Security personnel along the Egyptian border were on extra high alert on Saturday and Sunday.

Why? Because last week the natural gas pipeline leading to Jordan and Israel was blown up for the 14th time.

And indeed, on both Saturday and Sunday the security fence sensors were set off.

Also on Sunday armed bands attacked and killed two Egyptian policemen in the Sinai Desert.

There is great worry that the rockets and the smuggling in the dessert will lead Israel to strike at terror targets in Sinai. That is what Omar Suleiman, the former Mubarak spy chief and currently disqualified presidential candidate, recently said.

Suleiman told the Egyptians that if they do not control Sinai, Israel will attack.

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Egypt 10 Candidates Dissed
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The committee supervising the Presidential elections in Egypt disqualified 10 candidates yesterday evening.

Threats of violence are in the air.

The disqualified included the Muslim Brotherhood candidate who is by far the most popular in the field. He was disqualified because of two criminal convictions. Also disqualified was the Salafist candidate about whom it is said that his mother held a US passport.

He was disqualified even though a court ruled on Thursday that he was eligible.

Another popular and disqualified candidate is the former spy chief and deputy PM who was only appointed deputy PM a few days before Mubarak's resignation. He is said to be too close to the former regime.

The disqualified candidates have 48 hours to appeal. Everyone thinks that they will appeal.

If these decisions stand they could change the nature of the presidential election. We must watch closely and see how this plays out.

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German Imam to Distribute 25 Mill Korans
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic leader in Germany is in the middle of a plan to distribute 25 million Korans to the people of Germany.

The Imam is a dynamic leader from Cologne. He is a Salafist. The Salafists are a very conservative element of Islam - even more conservative than the Muslim Brotherhood.

Thus far 300,000 Korans have been distributed.
The cleric wants to save the non-believers from hell. Others are up in arms over the Koran blitz. Opponents are saying that it is a personal violation of freedom of speech and a platform for extremist ideology and even terror.

The national security agencies responsible for watching extremist groups in Germany are monitoring this situation very closely.

In reality there is no real threat. My only caveat to that is there are about 80 million people in Germany. That would mean that there will be a Koran for every three people, or, more than one per family.

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Egypt Surges Troops in Sinai
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has bolstered its army presence in the Sinai desert. They have just added significant numbers of troops along the border.

The new troop surge is there for three reasons. First, the Egyptians need to fight the illegal smuggling that takes place there. Second, the Egyptians are making an effort to clamp down on the rockets that are shot from Sinai into Israel. Third, Egypt is trying to prevent the blowing up of the gas lines that run through the area.

In other words, bringing more troops to the Sinai desert is an effort to bring law and order to the Sinai desert.

The single largest business in the area is smuggling. Consequently, stopping smuggling is not very popular with local Egyptians and the army has not been very successful in stopping the smuggling industry.

The important thing is that Egyptian leadership, aka the Egyptian army is taking a stand. And it is a law and order stand and that, hopefully, will have an impact on the Egyptian elections slated to take place in June.

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Bibi Drops Demand- Jewish State
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet face to face with Palestinian Authority President Abbas. They each have an agenda.

Netanyahu wants to continue face to face talks and is willing to drop his demand that the PA first recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

Abbas has a list of demands that he wants Israel to comply with without any negotiating. One of those demands is a total halt to all settlement activity.

A huge problem may emerge.

Israel already embarked on a 10 month settlement stoppage - and no progress emerged. The only thing that did come out of that stoppage was the desire on the side of the PA to extend the stoppage.

Stopping settlements seems to be the objective of the PA, not peace.

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Iran Outsmarts EU
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran cut its export of oil to Greece and to Spain. They also threatened to cut their exports to Italy and Germany.
Why would they do that? Don't they need markets for their oil?

Aren't they suffering from sanctions already?
They are and they do. But ... Great force and pressure has been laid on nations around the world by the United States and her Western allies to stop importing oil from Iran. As a result, as of July 1, the EU is supposed to discontinue all Iranian imported oil. So the Iranians are making the first move - they are stopping first.

Iran is one upping the EU ante. They are forcing thU to scramble for much needed oil resources. As opposed to Iran hurting economically, Iran is causing economic pain to those countries that were about to strike out against them.

Only one nation in the EU, Norway, produces enough oil to sustain itself.

Once again, the Iranians are outsmarting everyone.

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Iran Can Survive Sanctions
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 10, 2012
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced yesterday while on a visit to the Hormuzgan Province that Iran can easily survive oil sanctions for at least 2 years - even if they do not sell any oil.

"They (Western powers) want to impose sanctions on our oil and we must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn't sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily."

True, Iran has become energy independent. But what Ahmadinejad
neglected to say is that the vast majority of Iran's GNP is oil.

What Ahmadinejad is really saying is that the sale of oil to those who do not care about the boycott against can keep them afloat.

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Iran's Inlfation
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

I saw a picture in an Iranian newspaper the other day in which Ahmadinejad was holding up a T-shirt with pictures of the Iranian nuclear scientist who were assassinated. Since 2010 four high level Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed.

Ahmadinejad was saying that you cannot assassinate or intimidate us into stopping our nuclear development. He called the scientists martyrs.

But there was some very bad news in the same newspaper. The inflation figure for 2011 was released and Iran claims that inflation rose 21.5% and the cost of goods rose 14.1%.

These figures are official government numbers. That means that they are probably grossly understated.

The real figures for inflation are probably 35-40% and the costs of goods have probably increased by 30%.

All the news that's fit to print, Iranian style.

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Egypt's Pres Election
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Presidential election in Egypt has taken some interesting turns.
The former spy chief has thrown his hat in to the ring. That puts an interesting spin on the election. The image of the past will be front and center.

In addition, the former head of the Arab League and trusted right hand of Mubarak, Amr Moussa is a strong candidate. But rumors have emerged that Moussa is a Jew.

Websites are proclaiming that his half brother actually lives in Israel and that his mother is of partial Jewish decent.

Of course this is not true. Moussa's half brother is Pierre and he
lives in Paris.

In the meantime the Muslim Brotherhood candidate has proclaimed that the objective will be that all future legislation will be in line with Islamic law, Sha'ariyah.

If this were a movie script, no one would believe it.


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Iran Nixes Turkey For Nuke Talks
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Word has it that Iran has it nixed Turkey as the site for the next nuclear talks with the West. The talks are scheduled to take place next week on April 13.

Until now it was assumed that Turkey would be acting as host.

But yesterday and today comments are coming out of Iran by people involved in the process saying that they will not go to Turkey.

Turkey has already hosted these meetings in the past. Turkey had proved itself an ally of Iran by voting against sanctions when they sat on the Security Council. But that was then.

Now Turkey seems to want to get back into the good graces of the US and the rest of the West and so the Turks have spiked their critique of Iran.

The Iranian response is to nixing them from the position of host.

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Arab League Boycotts Adidas
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab Youth and Sports Council of Ministers, chaired by a Saudi prince, has announced that the Arab Council will be boycotting Adidas.

Why? Because several weeks ago Adidas sponsored the Jerusalem Marathon.

"All companies that have sponsored the marathon of Jerusalem, including Adidas, will be boycotted." This is quote from Saudi Prince Nawaf bin Faisal, chairman of the Arab youth and sports council of ministers, which met yesterday in Jeddah.

It was their 35th meeting. The group is an official committee of the Arab League composed of ministers of sport from all Arab League members. They try to coordinate Arab international sports events and activities and resolve issues about sports between Arab countries.

I thought we were beyond the Israel boycott. Certainly Adidas thought so.

This puts the Arab League in violation of US law.

I know that Congress will be fuming - I wonder how or when the White House will respond.

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No Passover Seder in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There will be no Passover seder in the Israeli Embassy in Cairo this year. The entire staff, including the ambassador, will be at home with their families in Israel.

This is the first time since the 1979 peace accords between Israel and Egypt were signed that the Embassy will not be hosting a seder in Egypt.

The significance should not be lost on the excuses about technicalities that are being made.

Since the sacking of the Israeli embassy in Cairo several months ago the Israeli diplomatic presence in Egypt has been in flux and at times, it has even been in question.

As of now, the Egyptians are refusing to sell or even rent property to the Israelis. Conventional wisdom has it that the Israeli ambassador and his staff function out of a hotel room.
Oh, the irony.

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Malta Pulls Iran's Flag
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Malta delisted a merchant ship for violating international sanctions. That means that they removed the ship from their registry and are no longer allowing the ship to sail under the flag of Malta.

This is a huge success. The flag the ship was using is referred to as a "Flag of Convenience." Malta and Liberia are the largest of the countries that shield companies and other countries by allowing them use of their flag.

Malta delisted a freighter owned by MT Tour which is owned by ISIM Tour Ltd. MT Tour and ISIM Tour Ltd. are Iranian companies that were using the flag of Malta in order to break the sanctions.

The ship was picking up crude oil in Syria and shipping it to China. Syria could not find any other way to ship the 120,000 tons of crude worth $84 million. So Iran, at great risk, sent a cargo tanker ship to pick the freight up at the port of Tartus.

After seeing the evidence, Malta pulled the flag. Now everyone knows that the ship is from Iran - otherwise, with the flag of Malta flying on it, no one would have a clue where the ship was from and no one would have access to the paperwork to even investigate.

This is a small chink in the Syrian Iranian link. But If Malta continues to delist ships it may have a huge impact on the national products of both Iran and Syria.

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PA Crackdown on Freedoms
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority arrested a woman today and is charging her with insulting President Mahmoud Abbas.

She did not say a word and not a word was put in print.

Ismat Abdul Khaleq is a lecturer at a university in the West Bank. On her Facebook page she posted that Abbas was a traitor and she demanded that he resign.

Ismat Abdul Khaleq is being charged for sedition in cyberspace. Prosecutors said that this goes beyond the pale and that Palestinians may not insult Abbas in any media.

This is not the first Palestinian crackdown on freedom of expression and writing on air and on line. A journalist named Yossef Al Shayeb was arrested for insulting members of the Abbas government. Two other journalists were arrested, interrogated and recently released.

One was interrogated about a Facebook entry while the second was interrogated about a story he was prepping and researching.

Do not be misled. The liberal Palestinian Authority is not what is appears to be.

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Words From Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US policy toward Iran is taking shape. Given the rhetoric during the presidential campaign, it is not what one would have imagined.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a very long conversation with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Erdogan had just returned from a prolonged and detailed trip to Iran during which the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei explained that the Iranian nuclear program is about technology and energy and not about weapons of mass destruction.

Clinton responded by saying that those were ideals not policies statements. She said it is a good sign, but what is needed are real policy moves to prove what the Supreme Leader was saying and that those moves includes international inspections.

The AP quoted Clinton saying:

"They were told that the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) viewed weapons of mass destruction as religiously prohibited, as against Islam" ... "We are meeting with the Iranians to discuss how to translate what is a stated belief into a plan of actio" ... "It is not an abstract belief, but a government policy. That government policy can be demonstrated in a number of ways ... The international community now wants to see actions associated with that statement of belief."

As we all know, actions speak louder than words.

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Egypt's Growing Pains
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptians are going through serious growth pains.

For example: The Muslim Brotherhood had been adamant in saying that they would not stand a candidate for president. Now they have announced that Khairat el Shater will represent the party in the presidential election.

He is a shoe in. With Khairat el Shater in power, the Muslim Brotherhood will have almost total control of Egypt. The only vestige of power outside their realm would be in the military - and it is precisely because of the military's current grip on power that the Brotherhood changed their mind and entered someone in the presidential race.

Another example: The Arabic paper Sharq al Awsat, published out of London, has reported that Israel is unable to get space for an embassy in Cairo. Egypt is refusing to rent or sell the Israelis property. There is, however, an Israeli ambassador in Egypt.
According to the account in the paper, he works out of his hotel room.

That's the New Egypt.

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Justifying a Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A slew of apologists have emerged to justify/ white wash the terror attack that took the lives of seven innocent victims in Toulouse, France. The apologists are trying to suggest that Mohmmed Merah was not a bad person and even more, that he himself was a victim.

Writers, even a professor of Islamic Studies at Oxford, have written that "Merah was a misguided youngster in whose thought there were no values of Islam or racist and anti-Semitic ideas."

Misguided????

Mohammad Merah murdered three children all under 8 years old and claimed it was the happiest moment of his life. Merah said that he did not want to be a kamikaze, he said that he wanted to live in order to kill more Jews.

It is extremely troubling that so many people are not willing or able to define Merah and his actions for what they are. It is a black and white issue - Merah committed mass murder to promote a political and religious agenda. That is called terror.

Merah was a Muslim terrorist. He was trained to be a terrorist and he espoused terrorist values and teachings.

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Israel Buys Airstrip Near Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just bought an airstrip/airbase on the northern border of Iran. This is a real game changer.
Israel now has use of an Azerbaijani air base. Israel will revamp it and bring to up to their specs.

It is still unclear if this airbase is one of the four, now abandoned, former Soviet bases in the area or if Israel now has an airbase that Azerbaijan was using up until the purchase.

What is perfectly clear is that Israel now has close access to Iran and can act totally independently, without asking or even informing the United States. Not surprisingly, the United States is livid.

Add to that Saudi Arabian frustration with US inaction on Iran and the desire of the Saudis to help Israel strike at Iran and the possibility that they might themselves provide landing strips for Israeli planes - and you have all the pieces of the Israeli puzzle falling right into place.

It's official. Iran is worried.

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Land Day for Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tomorrow marks the beginning of Land Day activities throughout the Middle East and around the world.

Land Day is a Palestinian protest day created to remember the year 1976 when Israel declared its intention to take over 20,000 dunam of Arab land and use it for settlement development.

There are supposed to be multiple peaceful rallies throughout the
Palestinian Authority. They are expecting tens of thousands of foreign visitors to fly in over the next few days to participate in their marches.

Around the world Arab groups are symbolically marching toward Jerusalem. Because of the nature of cities and borders and the PA and Israel, communities sometimes literally abut one another. So several weeks ago the Israelis sent messages to bordering neighbors to make certain that people stay away from Israel's fences. Last year the Syrians tried to storm the Israeli border fence and rush into Israel.

Police in Israel are on high alert. They will have road blocks to make certain that the marches do not enter Israel and that the threat level remains low and Israelis are secure and safe.

The expectation is that rhetoric will be high but will not set off a third intifada.

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Hamas & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Lebanese newspaper reported on Tuesday on a recent meeting between Hamas and Iranian leaders. The purpose of the meeting was to synchronize a response in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran.
Iran is expecting Hamas to rain rockets down on Israel.

In exchange for this support Hamas will receive an immediate $33 million and will once again be part of the Iranian led gravy train.

In addition Iran wants to sabotage the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. This is already in the works. Hamas leaders in Gaza were never keen on the decision of Hamas leaders outside of Gaza to fraternize with Abbas and Fatah.

This Lebanese report confirms the Fatah/Palestinian Authority news reports and analyses that has been circulating over the past few weeks that Iran is supporting Hamas and trying to drive a wedge between Palestinians and foil any chances of reconciliation.

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Gas Crisis in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is a severe gas crisis in Gaza. Taxis have ground to a halt, electric stations have stopped generating and cooking gas does not exist. There are black outs for 18 hours a day.

Israel will be blamed, but this is not Israel's fault. Israel actually just delivered 450,000 liters of diesel to Gaza. It is Egypt that supplies gas to Gaza. And Egypt has decided to abide by the traditional agreement that all gas must come through the Kerem Shalom crossing which is controlled by Israel.

Gaza does not want Israel to control their gas imports despite the stipulation in the treaty.

Egypt wants better control over the gas and does not want the gas to continue coming through the tunnels as has been happening since 2007.

Hamas is livid. They want the gas to come through the smuggling tunnels and are pushing Egypt to do what they have been doing since ousting the Palestinian Authority from Gaza. Only Egypt wants to be more responsible. The potential for an explosion is enormous.

Until Hamas and Egypt come to an agreement, 18 hour blackouts will be the new norm in Gaza.

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He Loved to Kill Jews
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

According to a report in the French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche (The Sunday Journal), French terrorist Mohammad Merah was in a state of immense pleasure while brutally murdering Jews.

Just before the SWAT team stormed his apartment Merah explained to the police that he had hoped to murder many more Jews. He said he was sorry that he missed the day the students returned from vacation because then many more Jewish children would have been gathered in the entrance to the school.

Merah told the police that he did not want to end his life like a kamikaze. He wanted to live to kill more Jews. He said that during the killing he felt "endless pleasure."

He explained why he killed French soldiers in France as opposed to in Afghanistan where he was trained. Merah said that killing a French soldier in France is like killing six French soldiers in Afghanistan.

Do not misunderstand. This man was not crazy, he was not a lunatic. He was a cold blooded calculated mass murderer. He killed to achieve his political and religious goals.

Mohammad Merah was totally aware of his actions and of the ramifications of those actions.

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Israel Operates in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

This goes into the hard to believe but certainly within the realms of the possible and even highly probable category:

The Sunday Times of London reported today that Israel is running an entire intelligence operation in Iran with significant numbers and extremely high technology. According to the report Israel's base of operations is in the Kurdish controlled province of Iraq.

From the Kurdish controlled areas Israel can cross into Iran and gather information and run/operate their agents to gather large amounts of intelligence.

According to the article and everyone who is analyzing this material-the idea is to find a smoking gun. Israel is looking to find real evidence of nuclear weapons and technology.

The teams, according to the Times of London report, have highly sensitive radioactive sensors and have even used black hawk helicopters to drop commandos into Iran to gather info. They are dressed as Iranian military and even use Iranian military vehicles.

Attention is focused on Parchin and Fordow near Qoms. Parchin is where the IAEA last asked to take a look and were politely told to look elsewhere. Satellite pictures show that the earth around Parchin was plowed under and that major earth-moving vehicle were at works there.

Conventional wisdom is that the Iranians tested a neutron trigger in Parchin and then did their best to get rid of the evidence.

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They Honor the Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A teacher in a high school just north of Paris is facing disciplinary action.

The teacher asked her students to stand for a moment of silence to honor the memory of Mohamed Merah - the terrorist who murdered seven people in cold blood in Toulouse.

Some of the students walked out in protest, but some stayed to hear what their teacher was planning and to try to understand her point of view. She said that Merah was not a terrorist and that it was all a rouse contrived by the media and by President Sarkozy. She added that Merah had no al Qaeda connections. The students immediately wrote a formal complaint to their principal.

The brother of Mohamed Merah announced how proud he was of his brother and said that in his home were 10,000 Euros worth of weapons including a Kalashinkov machine gun.

A CIA source in Kandahar said that Merah had visited Israel and was stopped by Israeli security because of a knife he was carrying. US officials also confirm that he was on a no fly list for the United States.

France knew all about Merah but according to a statement made by the prime Minister they could do nothing - until he perpetrated a crime.

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Madonna in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Madonna is adding a second concert to her Tel Aviv tour. It is called the Peace Concert. She said that if there is anything she or music can do to help bring about peace - she will try.
Several major peace groups have been called upon to attend and be part of the concert.

The first Madonna concert will be held on May 29 in Ramat Gan Stadium. The second concert is scheduled for May 31. Her newest album entitled MDNA is scheduled to be released on May 26.

Madonna last performed in Israel in 2009. She refuses to be intimidated by the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement. The BDS and many other sanction supporters have tried to pressure and even blackball Madonna and other performers to cancel their concerts in Israel.

Some performers have caved under the pressure. Madonna did not succumb to the BDS pressure in the past and will not now.

In her own words: "It is my way of thanking those who are making so much effort toward bringing peace to the Middle East."

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Terror in Toulouse
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The terror attacks in France are extremely troubling - not just for the obvious reasons.

France is "the" bastion of democracy in modern history. It was in France that the concepts of freedom and equality first became a reality and the first real test case for those concepts was the Jews. Jews were emancipated in France as part of the French Revolution.

Now a Muslim terrorist, a member of al Qaeda, purposefully and willfully and violently murders seven people in Toulouse - three Muslim soldiers and four Jews including three children under the age of eight.

The terrorist murdered Muslims because they were soldiers fighting for France and in the eyes of al Qaeda that is a treasonous act punishable by death. And he took it upon himself to mete out that punishment.

The terrorist attacked a Jewish school to, in his words, "avenge the Palestinian children." The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority Salam Fayyad responded by demanding that terrorists of this type cease and desist. He said: "It is time for these criminals to stop marketing their terrorist acts in the name of Palestine and to stop pretending to stand up for the rights of Palestinian children who only ask for a decent life."

These events have shaken France and they have shaken the Jewish world and everyone who believes in freedom and equality.

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Iran Lauds US for Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told his people that sanctions against them would not work and that they must develop more domestically produced products.

The Supreme Leader also complimented US President Barak Obama. The Iranian leader said that he welcomed the stance of the US president that was embracing diplomatic solutions to the disagreements between their countries.

It is very important to understand this.

The diplomatic solution is by far the wisest resolution, but as the wheels of diplomacy slowly turn, the Iranians can be using the time to race toward nuclear proficiency.

For Iran talks are a win-win situation.

That is why the United States and the West must try to apply extremely costly and painful sanctions against Iran even and especially while the diplomatic option is explored.

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Russia To Push for Cease Fire
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC, has gotten a commitment from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to propose the concept of daily cease fires in Syria to Syrian leadership.

In principle this would mean several hours every day during which the ICRC can provide service to victims. It will be a time when they can evacuate the wounded and provide medicine and food to those in need.

Russia agreed that it was a good idea and that they would relay the message to Syria.

The idea of having several hours dedicated to life saving measures was something Russia felt that they could convince Syria to adopt.

In response to a question asking if Lavrov thought that Syria would respond positively to Russian pressure about this daily ceasefire, Lavrov responded "absolutely."

This may make a difference for the wounded.

This is certainly further proof of the influence Russia wields in Syria.

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Jews of Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

In the backs of the minds of those who are planning and analyzing an Israeli strike on Iran is this question --- what will happen to the 23,000 - 25,000 Jews still living in Iran?

This is one of the huge questions that rests on the shoulders of Israeli decision makers.

Iran's Jews have a history dating back 2,700 years. They are one of the oldest Jewish communities in the world. Today they live either in the city of Teheran or Shiraz.

In the year 2000, thirteen Iranian Jewish Hebrew teachers were arrested for spying. After years of persecution the case was dropped.

Iranian leadership has options. They could arrest Jews as they have done in the past. They could persecute them and arrest them on trumped up charges. They could run a smear campaign to foment public hatred and attacks against the Jews of Iran. They can forbidden the practice and teaching of Judaism.

A military attack is much more than a mere tactical and strategic maneuver.

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Iran Calls Israel Barking Dog
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani called Israel a "barking dog" earlier today.

Larijani was explaining that "Israel would never dare attack Iran."

He said Israel is like a dog it barks and does not intend to bite. He then echoed a repeated theme that has been developing over the last week or two by Iranian leaders. He said that if Israel were to strike Iran, it, Israel, would be playing with its own destiny.

The war of rhetoric is increasing in pitch.

Iran is pushing the don't attack model suggesting that Iran's counter attack against Israel would be too devastating and too costly to warrant a first strike.

This all happens as Swift, the largest international transfer-er of funds from banks disconnected 25 of Iran's banks from its services as of Monday. This could be a huge blow to Iran's already problematic foreign currency money flow.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Ali Akhba Salehi, Iran's foreign minister was interviewed on Danish television TV-2. The Iranian minister's comments provide telling insight into the complex chess game that Iran is playing with the West.

Salehi said that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would result in the total destruction of Israel.

He said: "If Israel ever made this mistake, it would set the clock for the end of Israel. And the Israelis know this."
He continued: "Israel is such a small country it would not last even a single week in a real war. Not even one week."

This takes the "wipe off the map" comments much further. Iran's top diplomat, the man who is also the former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, meant to intimidate and frighten the West - not Israel. His comments were directed specifically at the United States in order to try to make certain that Israel does not embark on an air strike.

Israel is fully aware of Iran's potential and the risks involved in a military strike. It is the United States that is still in the throes of decision making and so it is the United States that is open to influence through this rhetoric.

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Safe Haven in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has a plan to save innocent victims in Syria.
His idea is to create a "safe zone."

Sarkozy proposes to designate a section of Syria, including the city Homs, an area where the Syrian army may not go and may not fly over. Sarkozy suggests that the area be large enough to sustain 5.5 million people.

No foreign troops would be needed according to this plan. The entire area would be patrolled and protected from the air. Food and medical aid would be dropped down to those in need.

US President Obama rejected the idea. Without the United States this cannot happen, no local or other air force can handle the plan without the help of the US Air Force.

The idea was rejected because the United States is not convinced that Syria would respect the space- ground and air and is uncertain as to whether the area would turn into a battleground.

More significantly, the United States does not know if the Russians would simply stand by watching what happens or if they would come to the defense of Syria. A Russian aircraft carrier has been deployed in Tartus, Syria for this very possible eventuality.

The French are disappointed but honestly, Washington made the correct decision.

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Turkey Bombs Kurds in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish planes flew into Iraq and dropped bombs on three regions. It happened late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning. The targets were Kurdish separatist movement centers and bases.

This is an ongoing story, one that we do not see or hear much about.

The Kurds want their own state. They believe that part of that state should include sections of Turkey so to that end, the Kurds actively strike at Turkish targets. It emphasizes their point.

The Turks respond by attacking Kurdish centers. Part of the attack strategy of the Turks against the Kurds is to get at their support system in Iraq.

In Iraq the Kurds are almost totally autonomous. They live in predominately Kurdish regions, they have excellent oil resources and their province is relatively very quiet and peaceful. They are almost totally independent of Iraq - except that the Kurdish province is in the new country of Iraq.

Despite their autonomy in Iraq, the Kurds still want an independent country. Turkey disagrees.

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Quiet Now in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After four days of a constant barrage of missiles from Gaza into Israel, there is finally a lull. Israel says that they will "answer quiet with quiet."

222 rockets were shot from Gaza into Israel. 56 rockets, about 25%, were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti rocket battery system.

Israel struck Gaza 37 times. Israel acknowledges 26 Palestinian deaths, fourteen of them members of the same Islamic Jihad cell, four of them civilian Palestinians.

In a stroke of unbelievable wonderment, the Palestinians also assert that four civilian Palestinians were killed. Never have the two sides agreed on casualties.

During the four days of bombardment over a million Israelis were in range of the rockets. 200,000 school children were kept out of school.

In Israel there were 40 casualties, two, both foreign workers, sustained serious injuries. Most of the injuries are a result of broken glass, and shock.

The situation is bad. Thankfully, it isn't worse.

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Saudis Ticked At the Obama
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia is really ticked off at the United States because of two huge policy decisions. So Saudi leadership wants to make President Obama pay at the gas pump - and higher gas prices may just be the kiss of death for Obama's re-election campaign.

The current US policy of advancing talks with Iran is seen by the Saudis as just giving the Iranians more time to enrich their uranium and develop their nuclear weapons. The Saudis also feel that the US policy to wait and watch in Syria is destructive to the region. Saudi Arabia wants to oust Assad of Syria as a message to Iran.

Their frustration with the United States is so intense that it may even drive the Saudis into a defense and intelligence alliance with Israel.

The Saudis believe that the US must stop Iran. If the US is unwilling, they will do it together with other players in the region. And that might be very upsetting to the United States.

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Israel Will strike With Force &
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After several days of rocket fire from Gaza Benny Gantz, the Israel chief of staff, made a comment that was somewhat surprising.
Gantz said that Israel would continue to respond to the rocket fire with "force and sensitivity."

What a poor choice of words. So many expressions could have been used - but to say sensitivity?

He could have said "with force and surgical precision." He could have said "responsibly." He could have used the international league term "commensurate force" or said "proportional response."

He could have coupled the term force with "wise" or "justifiable."

But sensitive? That is not what the IDF should be when it comes to Gaza and the indiscriminate shooting of rockets into Israel.

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More Rockets From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since Friday night more than 120 rockets have been launched from Gaza into Israel.

Over 20% of those rockets have been intercepted by the Iron Dome, Israel's anti rocket battery. And more Iron Domes are being deployed in order to continue to effectively intercept rockets.

Israel is striking at the terrorists in Gaza responsible for shooting these rockets. Israel is also targeting their arms depots. But it is still nearly impossible to prevent the rocket launchings.

Some of these rockets are 3 feet long. One video now on the web shows how the rocket was propped up against a large stone and then shot at Israel.

The Palestinian Resistance Committees has given a green light to all their people to fire at Israeli at will - that directive comes in response to Israel's targeting on Friday of their leader, al Qaisi.

If there is a silver lining in all this it is that the Israelis are now smarter about what Gaza is capable of sending their way. And they now have a true test of the effectiveness of the Iron Dome should they need to use it in the event of an Iranian attack.

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Rockets Hit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Israel was hit by a barrage of rocket attacks fired from Gaza.

Of the tens of rockets that were launched into southern Israel at least 7 were intercepted. 4 Israelis were hurt, 1 critically.

Earlier in the day Israel successfully struck at and hit the man known as the General Secretary - the commander of the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC), Zuhir al Qaisi. Israel asserts that striking al Qaisi was a preemptive strike which helped to avert a serious terror attack which was about to go into motion.

The barrage of rockets launched on Friday night was clearly a response to Israel's strike. The PRC military wing, the Nasar Saha a Din Brigades, made it clear that it was they who sent out an order to fire and launch rockets at Israel.

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Russia Says 15,000 Al Qaeda in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Russia ambassador to the UN in Geneva came out with a very important statement about Syria yesterday.

He said that 15,000 foreign al Qaeda terrorists are in Syria fighting against Assad and his regime.

If correct, it highlights some interesting and essential points.

Few Syrians themselves are fighting against Assad. That would mean that these al Qaeda imports are trained and have an entirely different vision for Syria than the protestors.

Russia is an ardent supporter of the Assad regime. But that having been said, Russia is also trying to stop the killing and the Russians have serious resources in the region.

15,000 might be an exaggeration but half of that - 7,500, is a more realistic number.

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Iran Uses Neutron Trigger
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Three diplomats from the UN body responsible for monitoring nuclear development in Iran have anonymously asserted that Iran is cleaning up an area that is probably the site of a nuclear weapons experiment.
On Wednesday satellite photos were made public and the diplomats spoke to AP who reported their finding.

The location where the clean up is taking place is called Parchan. This is one of the sites that IAEA monitors wanted to visit during their last trip to Iran and were denied entry.

The assertion is that a neutron trigger was used in an experiment.

According to everyone in the nuclear world who studies this, there is only one use for a neutron trigger - activating a nuclear weapon. Its official name is an initiator and an initiator is what is needed to trigger the fission chain reaction of a nuclear weapon.

This is not news in the nuclear discussion world. People have been discussing Iran’s neutron triggers since 2007 and believe Iran had one as early as 2008.

The good news is that the polonium is very difficult to clean up and observers should be able to see what is happening in Iran.

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US Baffles Israel at Summit
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now a day or so after the summit between Obama and Netanyahu. Now real critique is beginning to emerge.

The Israelis are baffled at how immature the Americans are. One of the chief concerns expressed by Obama is the rising cost of oil and the impact that will have on the gas pump.

In other words, a volatile Middle east means high priced gas at the neighborhood pump.

The Israelis were nearly speechless. How do you even respond? The United States is thinking about the comfort of their citizens, about their wallets. Israel is worried about the lives and deaths of Israeli citizens.

This little example shows just how large the chasm is between the countries, their leaders and their respective points of view.

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Obama & Bibi Meet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Both President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the AIPAC Conference. Both gave similarly themed speeches. And on Monday they met in the Oval Office.

There seems to be an no disagreement in DC, on the Hill or in the White House. There seems to be wall to wall consensus on Israel’s right to defend itself from Iran. There is even an understanding that Iran is a real threat and that the Iranian goal is to develop nuclear weapons.

So, I ask, where and why do the tension and the conflict come from?

It is all a matter of style, of honor, of pride. Both the prime minister's office and the White House feel that they were insulted by the other - not during this trip and the insults are too insignificant to even mention at this point, but never the less, those perceived insults linger and they alter the tenure of the relationship between the leader of Israel and the leader of the United States of America.

This meeting in the oval office between Netanyahu and Obama was described as somber and professional - hardly a meeting of old friends. But honestly, I prefer somber and professional to the childish and immature behavior which characterizes previous meetings between these two men who should, by all rights, have become friends.

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Israeli Drones Over Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Hayat has reported that the Hamas military base in Damascus is closed.

And the large and respected Arabic paper called Asharq al Awsat quotes Turkish sources saying that Israeli drones are flying in Syria. The paper speculates about why.

The best explanation is that the Russians are using the drones and launching them from their carrier group outside the port of Tarsus. The drones are remote control and Russia has purchased a significant number of them.

The drones would be of great use to the Assad regime enabling real time intelligence on movements and communication.

The paper suggested that that Israel was aiding the Assad regime.
There is nothing further from the realm of possible than that statement.

This is a major lesson in understanding and interpreting Arabic news sources and analysis. To even think that Israel would be helping Assad or that Assad would accept assistance from Israel is theatre of the absurd. To print and publish it in twelve different Arabic countries is way beyond absurd.

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China Calls on Syria to Stop
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The situation in Syrian situation continues.

According to reliable reports several hundred Syrians have crossed the border into Lebanon to seek refuge and safety.

And the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement today published in Xinhau news, saying: "The Syrian government and all parties concerned should immediately, fully and unconditionally cease all acts of violence, particularly violence against innocent civilians."

Yes, the Chinese voted against international action in the Security Council and, yes, now they have issued this statement.

China wants to end the violence and protect civilians, but they do not want international intervention in Syria. They want to make certain that what is happening in Libya does not happen in Syria.

And the Chinese certainly do not want to open the door for the Security Council to interfere in any internal issues - even involving the gross violations of human rights.

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Iranian General Goes to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Friday al Arabiya TV reported that Kasam Slimani, the Iranian head of the Al Quds Brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, has just made a secret visit to Lebanon to speak with Hezbollah leaders.

The Al Quds Brigade is a highly elite section of the Revolutionary Guard. They are charged with special strikes and attacks.
According to al Arabiya the purpose of the visit was to coordinate and assess actions and reaction to an attack on Iran.

Iran probably made it known to Hezbollah that in the event of an attack by Israel they must respond by firing rockets and missiles into Israel. This would force Israel to spread its defense shield very thin in order to both protect from Lebanon on the north and Iran from the east.

Everyone, it seems, is making plans.

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Released Terrorist Has TV Show
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is a diplomatic nightmare. One of the terrorists freed in the Gilad Shalit exchange deal was deported to Jordan where she now hosts a weekly TV show about prisoners and about the former prisoners who were released along with her.

Ahlam Timimi was convicted and sentenced to 16 life terms for 15 counts of murder. It was she who drove the suicide bomber to Jerusalem on August 6, 2001 who then blew up the Sbarro restaurant. 15 people were killed and 130 were wounded.

At the time Timimi was a 20 year old university student and part time journalist. She dressed herself up as a Jewish tourist to successfully shuttle the terrorist to his target. Today she is a TV star on Hamas al Quds satellite TV out of Jordan.

After her release from prison she said that she had no regrets about her role in the terror attack.

The over arching theme of the show is to attack Israel and to kidnap soldiers. One of the guests on the show was Salah Arouri who was deeply involved in the Shalit deal. Arrouri says that the only way to impact Israel is through resistance. Resistance is code for terror. He says that kidnapping soldiers helps bring the Zionists to their knees.

It remains to be seen of the Jordanian will exert their power and shut down the show. Or will they turn a blind eye and let Ahlam Timimi continue on her mission.

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7 Americans Leave Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian judge lifted a travel ban on 7 of the 16 Americans who have been charged with numerous crimes including receiving external money to foment anti-government politics.

A charter plane waited to whisk the Americans out of Egypt and far from the grasp of anyone deciding to overturn the decision.

Included in the group of seven was Sam LaHood, son of Ray LaHood the current Secretary of Transportation in the Obama Administration.

The decision on Sunday to adjourn the trial until June and now this decision to release some of the prisoners should be taken as hopeful signs for the remaining Americans.

Unfortunately, it does not bode well for those 27 Egyptians who were employed by the American NGOs and are still being held prisoner.

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Jordan Queen Calls Syria 1st Lady
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Queen Rania of Jordan recently called Asma Assad, the wife of Bashar Assad, President of Syria.

The Queen of Jordan called asked about the situation in Syria and said that she hoping the life of the wife of the president was not in jeopardy.

Asma responded by saying that "our situation is excellent and we have no concerns." Asma then said to Rania of Jordan "but we have heard worrying reports from your country and wish to make sure that you are doing ok."

Asma Assad is British born and educated and spent time at Kings College. Before marrying Assad she worked for the Deutsche Bank and for JP Morgan.

Rania was born in Palestine, in the city of Tulkarm. She was educated at the New English school in Kuwait and the American University in Cairo. Before her marriage she worked for Citibank and for Apple.

The phone conversation was reported by the British Arabic Daily Al Quds and the source was a Jordanian contact.

This conversation highlights some important points. A stoic attitude and stiff upper lip are part of the role female leadership assumes in this part of the world. And Asma has not left the country and has no plans to do so - which means she really does feel secure in Syria.

Most telling of all is that Asma Assad does not feel the need to seek refuge next door - and actually voices her concern over the volatile situation in Jordan and feels comfortable enough to speak of her concerns for the well being of the Jordanian queen.

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Predicting Drop in Iran Oil Exports
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Oil experts announced yesterday that the year 2012 will see a 33% drop in Iranian crude oil sales.

In January the European Union decided that as of July they will totally cut their Iranian crude imports.

In addition China, India and Japan who together amount to about 45% of Iran's crude sales, are agreeing to each cut their imports by 10%.
The White House is elated as are those leaders from Western Europe who have been pushing the boycott.

What is missing from the equation is that there are other countries increasing their oil imports from Iran. And countries like China and India often change their minds and behaviors when it comes to Iranian oil. Earlier in February China dropped their imports of Iranian crude - and barrel per barrel India picked up the slack.

Think of it as a see saw, except that this is not child's play.

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Egypt Adjourns Trial Against Americans
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian court has adjourned the trial of the 43 arrested NGO workers including at least 16 Americans, one of whom is the son of the current US Secretary of Transportation, until April.

This is a very positive move.

This means that Egypt is not ready to take these people to court and that there is a chance that the entire case will be dropped.

According to the charges these NGOs and their employees received illegal funding from outside of Egypt. They are also charged with engaging in political activity outside the purview of their social and community work. And finally, they are charged with not obtaining proper permission papers and licenses for their work.

It is still too early to tell, but the situation is looking good. If Egypt wants, they can still turn this into a show trial. If they don't want a show trial, they can just make it all go away.

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Rockets Again Shot into Israel From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

This morning 3 Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel.

The rockets landed in the Ashkelon beach region. Luckily, no one was hurt.

Incidents of this kind are not covered in the world press, they are hardly even covered in the local, domestic, Israeli press. Deaths and injuries are covered, not near misses. And yet, 3 rockets coming over a border with the intention of killing and terrifying as many people as possible is more than a casual incident.

These are acts of war and require retaliation. And the Israeli Air Force struck back attacking 2 sites in Gaza.

But something is wrong with the picture.

The US and the world are pushing Israel to make concessions and compromises and the Palestinians are creating unity between Hamas and the PA. And all the while Hamas keeps shooting rockets into Israel.

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Jordan Putting Up Patriots
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's French Le Figaro had a very important piece quoting a European defense expert who says that Jordan will be stationing 4 Patriot anti-missile batteries on the border with Syria near to Israel.

The Patriots were purchased from Germany.

The missiles are an obvious defense against Syria. They are also very good for Israel. Any Syrian aircraft attempting to enter Jordan in order to cross into Israel will be locked on and shot.

Countries in the region are starting to see Syria as a real threat to regional stability. That means that they must defend themselves from Syria. It also means that Israel be safer because of it. The irony is not lost.For eleven months the border between Syria and Jordan has been quiet and simple to traverse. That was then, now, everything has changed.

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Israel's New Super-Sub
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Israel leaked some very highly secret information.

Israel has always closely guarded the nature of their submarine fleet. And yet, it was reported in a German newspaper and then in the Israeli press, that a new secret weapon has been added to the Israeli super sub fleet.

It is called Tanin which is Hebrew for alligator. It is a new Dolphin class German sub with Israeli modifications. Israel is scheduled to receive three of these subs over the next three years.

These subs are supposed to be totally cloaked - they have no acoustic signature and cannot be traced or found. They can spend long periods of time underwater. And they have diesel and hydrogen conversion systems that allow the subs to produce their own fuel.

The Tanin is supposed to be able to launch nuclear warheads from anywhere.

Israel will start test deploying their new super sub very soon.

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PA Hamas Unity
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leader Halad Mashaal met with Palestinian Authority President Abbas in Cairo on Wednesday. They met to iron out problems with the unity agreements they had created a few weeks ago.

After the meeting Hamas issued a formal statement saying, "the movement (Hamas) is devoted to ending the division and uniting on the basis of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the brave resistance."

Two things need to be clear. Number one is that Hamas leadership in Gaza is not in favor of this agreement. They will need to be convinced and cajoled into accepting it. Number two is that the expression "the brave resistance" means "terror."

Whenever you see the word "resistance" in Arabic, in this context, it means "armed attacks against Israelis and Jews." Always. With no exceptions.

This is not Mahatma Gandhi of the Middle East. This is Hamas.

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China India May Drop 10% of Iran Oil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

China and India have announced that they will be cutting their crude oil imports from Iran by 10%.

Together China and India total 35%- 45% of Iran's oil export so a reduction of 10% each would be a significant drop in oil revenues. A reduction of that size could really hurt Iran.

But ... Iran exports between 2.1 - 2.14 million barrels of oil per day, depending on the seasonal demand.

Earlier in February China reduced their Iranian oil imports and India grabbed the excess to meet the exact amount of China's reduction. Meanwhile, South Africa doubled its oil imports from Iran to 100,000 barrels per day.

This all means that even as pressure to squeeze Iran increases in the West, Iranian oil exports remain largely unchanged. Iran finds other willing importers.

The only chance of effectively pressuring Iran is to get China and India to follow through and reduce their oil imports by even more than the 10% they have announced. The way to truly hurt Iran is to have China and India break, or at least drastically reduce their ties with Iran.

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Iranian Ships in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday an Iranian destroyer and supply ship passed through the Suez Canal.

As predicted, those ships are now docked in Syria. A destroyer in that position can shoot at almost any rebel stronghold.

More importantly, those two ships working together have spectacular computer and satellite resources and the ability to listen in on and sabotage communications.

Meanwhile, sources in Egypt and from Syrian rebel groups announced that their communications systems have been disrupted. They said they are no longer able to communicate with one another freely.

According to a report in the newspaper Asharq al Awsat, a daily Arabic paper out of London, an Egyptian security source commented that Syrian army and intelligence is no longer able to totally monitor the communication of the rebels.

Now with the help of the Iranian ships, they can both listen and disrupt the systems of communication.

Disrupting communications is a very important strategy. Syrian powers are not interested in learning about the plans of the opposition. They are interested in disabling the opposition and in weakening them.

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Israel & Jordan Prep for Refugees
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has set up a refugee camp along the Syrian border in anticipation of the masses of people expected to flee Syria as the violence against them increases.

Israel is also prepared for a potential onslaught of Syrian refugees.

It is clear that the refugees will be divided into two groups. The first group will be composed of those Syrians who were caught in the fray and the fighting and are running away to save their families.

The second group will be composed of Assad cronies. If the tide changes, members of the oppressive regime may very well need to run from the revolution in order to save their own lives.

Israel is prepared for that eventuality, too. Why Israel? Why not Syria, Jordan or other Arab countries? Because these refugees would most certainly be killed if they were to flee to Syria, Jordan or anywhere else in the Arab world.

The irony of it all is that the very people who have fought Israel and who refuse to accept Israel, realize that their only refuge is the Jewish State of Israel.

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Trial Set in Egypt For US NGO's
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt announced the trial date for the 43 NGO pro-democracy workers they have under arrest. The date is Sunday, February 26.
19 of those arrested are US citizens, charged with being funded by outside money to agitate and interfere in Egyptian politics. One of those arrested and charged is Sam LaHood, the son of US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.

LaHood is Egypt Director of the International Republican Institute. Along with others NGOs like Freedom House, their mandate is to spend time teaching about democracy.

The White House and Congress are livid. President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton have all raised the issue - and the Egyptians refuse to budge.

The trial will go forward. It will be a show trial. Egypt wants to show the world that current leadership is not bending to the United States and the West.

This trial is an excuse to prove a point of national pride. Egyptian pride will cause many innocent people to suffer.

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Iran Destroyer Thru Suez
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian naval destroyer and a supply ship sailed through the Suez Canal on Thursday.

The Iranians are probably on their way to Syria. Syria and Iran are united in a clear link against the Western world.

Egyptian military leadership gave permission to the Iranians to pass through the canal. Last year at this very time a set of naval vessels also passed through Suez. They went up the Mediterranean coast and then returned through the Canal and went back home.
Israel watched very carefully as these ships passed.

I have no doubt that this destroyer is on its way to lend support to Syria.

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Egypt Responds to US
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 17, 2012

I;ve Been Thinking:

Egypt is responding in very interesting ways to the threat by the United States to pull $1.3 billion in aid if the 19 NGO pro-democratic activists they have taken prisoner are not freed.

First: they said that they will be forced to reconsider their peace treaty with Israel if the aid is not delivered.

Second: the head of a major Islamic institution of Salafists, a group that garnered about 30% of the parliament vote, offered an interesting suggestion. He said that every Egyptian should donate $1.66 to help offset the loss of the aid.

The math is just funny. There are approximately 81 million people in Egypt so, if everyone gave $1.66 to the cause the total amount would be about $125 million which is hardly $1.3 billion.

The sad reality is that the average GDP annual income in Egypt is $2892. I did not forget to add the zeroes, that is their average income.

Aid to Egypt has fluctuated over the past decade going from as high as $2.075 billion to as low as $1.5 billion.

Egypt is making all the wrong decisions and they must suffer the consequences. If the United States pulls their aid they lose their leverage. But even with the generous offer of $1.3 billion, it does not appear as if the US has much leverage over Egypt, anyway.

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Hamas Dissed Assad
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera reported today that Hamas politburo chief Halad Mashaal avoided a meeting with Syrian president Bashar Assad.

This is the second time in the past two weeks that Mashaal has skirted a meeting with Assad.

Despite the fact that for years Assad protected and sponsored Hamas, Mashaal does not want to now be seen as supporting Assad.

Iran is livid and so is Assad. Iran believes that given all the money they have dumped into Hamas they should at least be loyal to Assad. But no.

Hamas has had to relocate their headquarters and they are no longer in Damascus. Now Hamas has a major office, just opened in Qatar, and a smaller one in Amman, Jordan.

Iran thinks that Mashaal and Hamas have shown their true colors.
Hamas representatives have visited Iran several times over the past few weeks to plead the Palestinian cause - but their words have fallen on deaf ears.

That brings us back to Mashaal missing a meeting with Assad. Mashaal
need to steer clear of Assad, but his benefactors want him close. Mashaal is in a very difficult position.

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White House Budget
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The White House presented its budget. Some things will knock your socks off.

The White House decided to go ahead and give $1.3 billion dollars to Egypt. The allocation is billed as reward for progressing down the path of democracy and having successful elections. The problem is that the Egyptians elected non-democratic parties. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri party combined took over 70% of the parliament. And by the way, the Nouri party makes the Brotherhood look tame and liberal.

There's more. Egypt is still included in the White House budget despite having arresting 43 NGO workers. 19 are Americans and one is the son of the Secretary of Transportation.

It continues. $800,000 million is slated to go towards furthering the Arab Spring, but it is unclear where and what that means.

Meanwhile, Israel will get $3.1 billion, but their short range missile program was cut.

The US is cutting their only friend and the only democratic state in the region and is dumping $1.3 billion on an unknown entity (the New Egypt) that has elected Muslim extremists.

To round out allocation for the Middle East: Iraq is getting $11.8 Afghanistan $4.6 and Pakistan $2.4 billion. Jordan is only getting $300 million.

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Iran-Israel and Terror
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There was a terrorist attack in New Delhi, India yesterday that targeted Israeli embassy personnel. Two Israelis were injured when their minivan left the embassy en route to pick up school children.

At the very same moment in Tbilisi, Georgia a bomb was discovered in the car of an Israeli embassy employee. The bomb was disarmed and no one was hurt.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed Iran and Hezbollah for these attacks and for other recent attempted attacks against Israeli diplomats in Azerbaijan and Thailand.

Iran lashed back. Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehmanparast said: "The Zionist regime has a high record of criminal actions against humanity and it is the first suspect of any terrorist operation in the world." "Tehran condemns terrorism in the strongest terms as Iran has been a victim of terrorism."

Understanding Iran's response is critical in understanding Iran's character.

Iran wants to condemn terror. Iran wants to appear above it all. Iran wants it to appear as if they, too, are victims of terror.

Most of all, and this is as popular a theme for Iran as it is bewildering for us - Iran wants it to be known that Israel is a terror sponsor. Iran is now claiming that Israel attacked Israelis - in order to make Iran look bad.

The Iranians are building a foundation of conspiracy. It is the same theme with a few variations that Iran circulated after 9-11.

This logic is very popular in the Muslim world.

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Iran & Azerbaijan
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 13, 2012

I've Been thinking:

The Iranian foreign minister summoned the ambassador from Azerbaijan yesterday.

The minister told the ambassador to stop helping the Mossad.

The meeting was precipitated by a news story that appeared in the Sunday Times of London saying that the epicenter of intelligence gathering against Iran is Baku, Azerbaijan.

Based on that story, Iran is castigating their neighbor.

This is not a new charge. The Islamic world has repeatedly condemned Azerbaijan for their openness to the West and their friendly tone towards Israel. After a recent terror attack in Azerbaijan those who claimed responsibility said the attack was a response to the unusually good relations Azerbaijan has with Israel.

Azerbaijan has figured out how to modernize their county and how to approach and befriend the West. The question now is whether the Islamist movement will deter them from moving any closer.

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Internet Down in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Mehr News Agency, a mouthpiece of the government even though it is often referred to as semi-official, announced on Saturday that 30 million Iranians are without internet.

They said the downage hit on Thursday.

The report said that the telephone communication ministry which is responsible for the internet - had nothing to do with the failure. I believe them.

Iran has been known to down sites and stop usage of foreign web access like facebook. But they admit doing it. It last happened during the elections when the government wanted to limit the ability of the opposition parties and Iranian youth to organize and communicate. The best way for them to accomplish their goals was to shut down the internet.

This could be a worm, or a virus, or an outside source. Whatever it is - it is taking a long time to isolate and fix. Imagine four days without internet.

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New Iran Subs
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just added two more submarines to their Ghadari sub fleet. The name Ghadari is taken from Ghadar Khumm, a holy site for Shiite Islam.

The two new subs bring the total of light subs to, best guess estimate since the Iranians are not publishing this information, about twelve.

These are all domestically produced mini submarines. They do not have long lasting underwater staying power. They are designed specifically for use in the Straits of Hormuz and accordingly, are able to navigate the very shallow waters on the sides of the Straits.

These subs are modeled on the North Korean sub the Sang-O and the Italian mini sub the Littoral. The technology is highly sophisticated.

The Iranians also have three much larger German that are pretty much ineffective in the Straits.

Bottom line on these subs: Iran is gearing up for conflict in the Straits.

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Hamas In Gaza Rejects Unity
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas in the Gaza strip has rejected the unity agreement that was brokered by Khaled Mashaal and Mahmoud Abbas for their exiled Politburo and the Palestinian Authority.

The agreement sets up an interim government in which Abbas is both the president and the prime minister. The objective is to move to new elections.

Hamas' parliamentarians, including Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh, say that the agreement does not take into account two very important items.

The first item is that Hamas won the election on January 25, 2006 and received the plurality of the votes for parliament. And yet, they have never been able to govern.

The second is that that according to the Palestinian constitution the position of president and prime minister must be held by two different people. The reason for this law was to make certain that there would broad based accountability and that no single power controlled the reigns of leadership.

I am in no way suggesting that Hamas is a paragon of democratic values, but they do have two very serious points here.

What is the reason for an election if you cast aside the results?

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Inside Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt that innocent people are being slaughtered in Syria.
And there are people who want to oust Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Most of those slaughtered have been, and will continue to be, those who do not support Assad or who are working to oust Assad.

The foreign minister of Russia came to Syria to dress him down Assad and make him promise to stop the killings of innocents. And that same day more innocent people were killed in the city of Homs.

Against that back drop there are huge rallies in Damascus in support of Assad.

This is a tale of two different Syrias.
One Syria feels oppressed and wants to revolt. The other Syria is part of the establishment and wants things to stay the same with only cosmetic changes.

Syria is a very small country. In a country of about 23 million people, only 3 metropolitan areas have over a million residents - Aleppo with more than 2 million, Damascus with 1.7 million and Homs with 1.2 million.

Aleppo has been quiet during the entire revolt and is thought to be with the leadership. Damascus has had some riots and excitement but it has been pretty quiet and this city, too, is thought to side with the leadership. Homs has been a hotbed of anti-Assad activity as has been the city of Hama with its 790,000 residents.

Looking around Syria, it does not appear that everyone is on the "oust Assad" train.

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Turks Upset at Swiss
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Turkish foreign ministry has summoned the Swiss ambassador. The Turks want an explanation.

The Swiss have launched an investigation into the Turkish EU Minister suggesting that he may have violated international protocols by denying the Armenian genocide.

The Turks are livid.

They are saying such an investigation is unacceptable and they will tell the Swiss ambassador just that. Turkey will demand an explanation as to why this investigation is happening.

The Turks have already had a diplomatic skirmish with France over this very same issue. There is a big problem here, bigger than diplomacy, it is a nationalist issue. It is against European Union law to deny the genocide - but part and parcel of Turkish identity is to deny the Armenian catastrophe.

Right now, Turkish leadership is extremely volatile. They are overreacting to almost every international issue, not looking for solutions or detante. This is one blatant indication of the frayed nerves and extreme reactions of Turkish leadership.

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Pull Aid From Egypt Already
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

One may have thought that things could not get any worse when it came to Egypt and their new incarnation.

Now hear this: The new military leadership in Egypt has decided to put 19 Americans plus 24 other employees of NGO's on trial. They are charged with using foreign funds to foment political unrest.
These 43 people work for pro-democratic organizations, for organizations that helped oust Mubarak.

At first Egypt said that these workers could not travel, now they will stand trial. The military is deeply troubled that these organizations teach about accountability and responsibility, preach equality and equal protection and want justice.

These are all red flags and dangerous terms in the new Egypt.

The United States has threatened to pull monetary aid.

At this point the US must do something - intervene or pull not some but all aid to Egypt. If the United States does not act decisively, harshly and quickly, there will be no chance of saving these 43 people.

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PA Hamas Meet in Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Palestinians Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the head of Hamas, Khalad Mashaal, met on Sunday in Doha the capital of Qatar.

They met to talk about creating an independent interim government which would enable and organize presidential and parliamentary elections.

The PA and Hamas have been talking about unity and about elections for some significant time now, but have not yet progressed any further than saying that this is what we want.

This time also there is very little chance of success. Hamas think that they have already been elected - and have not yet served. The PA does not want to cede any power.

Creating a government to enable an election is a potential black hole. Once an interim government is in place there is no guarantee that elections will follow. And even if there are elections there are no guarantees they will be honest or that the results will be honored.

History has taught us that there is almost no chance of uniting the PA and Hamas in order to bring about united Palestinian elections.

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Iran - IAEA Failure
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

How naive and how gullible are we?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrapped up its meeting in Iran and then fed us all a great line. The meetings, they said, were positive - the Iranians are interested in talks and in inspections and there is a second round scheduled for later in February.

True, but only a partial story. The inspectors asked to see the facility in Parchin and the Iranians did not permit their entry.

Here is where it gets very tricky. The Iranians did not use the word "no" they just sidestepped the question. End result is that the IAEA inspectors were not permitted to inspect Parchin because the Iranians did not allow it, but yes, the Iranians did not say no to the IAEA.

Here is where it becomes troubling. Because the Iranians did not say no, the meetings and talks were considered a success in the eyes of the West and of the IAEA.

This is hardly a success - it is playing right into the hands of the very capable Iranians. It might come as a surprise to Westerners, but in many cultures - including Persian culture, it is impolite to say "no" and there are literally numerous ways of saying no without saying no.

Once again, the Iranians have succeeded in doing things their way.

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Comic Sentenced in Egypt - Insutling Islam
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians was convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison yesterday for the crime of insulting Islam.

This, not surprisingly, happened in the New Egypt.

Adel Imam, a truly iconic character in the Arabic world, has been an entertainment fixture for years. His shtick is to poke fun at politicians and politics. His humor is a test of the prevailing winds. At times, he went too far.

The sentence was handed down as a result of a 2001 movie called Morgan Ahmed Morgan. The film tells the story of a corrupt businessman who tries to buy a university diploma. The Egyptian sentencing judge said that Imam depicted Islamic symbols with disrespect and that he disrespectfully depicted a group of men dressed in Islamic garb. Imam went too far for the sensibilities of New Egyptian leadership.

Imam's most popular role was in a 1998 movie called Al Zaeem in which he played an Arab dictator. In 2008 he was found guilty of defaming lawyers, but that decision was overruled.

Adel Imam was tried in absentia. It was said that he was in Egypt recently to film a TV series but no one knows his current whereabouts.

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians has fallen out of favor by the New Egypt. During the rebellion Adel Imam defended Mubarak.

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Germany Upgrade PA Diplomats
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Germany upgraded the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA had been a "representation" and now they are a "mission." A mission means that the top representative to the host country is a ambassador that they may fly their flag.

This is a serious increase in diplomatic clout. Germany follows France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland in upgrading the PA.

Israel responded to the diplomatic upgrade by saying that the PA is getting the wrong message. Israel is saying that the Palestinian Authority is being rewarded with diplomatic upgrades for walking away from the negotiation table.

Israel is trying to suggest that the opposite should have taken place. Dangle the diplomatic upgrade as a reward in order to influence the PA to act diplomatically - don't just give that diplomatic perk away.

There is something fundamentally flawed in this picture. Diplomatic upgrades are huge and they just don't slip back down in status, they should be achieved as the result of serious transitions, not wishful thinking and vacuous promises.

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US, Israel, Iran, Sryia
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing yesterday. Syria and Iran were on the agenda.

David Petraeus, head of the CIA, explained to the senators that Israel and the United States see the threat of Iran differently.

From his testimony it became clear that Tamir Pardo, chief of Israel's Mossad, had been in Washington DC on Thursday.
This little bit of information made my jaw drop. The travel plans of the Mossad head are never supposed to be common knowledge.

The Committee also heard that there seems to be no real compromise position in Syria and that Iran sees the Assad regime as an asset. The senators were told that the loss of Syria as an Iranian asset would be a great loss to the Iranians.

What the United States does not seem to understand is that:
#1: Assad will not leave on his own
#2: the locals do not have the wherewithal to oust Assad.

They people of Syria need help, our help, help from the West. Iran is helping Assad stay in power.

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US Israel Tensions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between the United States and Israel about how to respond to Iran continue to rise. They have a clear difference of approach on how to handle the situation.

Israel has no doubt that Iran is on the verge of nuclear independence which would, in turn, enable the Iranians to provide enough refined uranium to make nuclear warheads. Israel says that the "window" is 5 months to 18 months. Action must take place before that window closes.

The United States sees the situation very differently. The US wants to continue to monitor and not act. It is far less of a threat for the US and the clock is not ticking nearly as loud as it is for Israel.

But both the US and Israel - and add to that even Iran, know that Israel does not have a knockout punch that would eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear threat. Rather, Israel has a knockdown punch which will delay progress. That means that the US will also have to engage Iran if they want to do the job right.

Israel has another option. They can attack the sites of Iran's national infrastructure - the military headquarters, the intelligence centers, the communication centers, the command and control centers.

That may be the best backup plan Israel can develop.

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Iran Says Oil Will Rise to $150
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has begun to play hard ball. Iran wants to frighten and to threaten the West.

Yesterday Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassami announced that Iran will soon stop exporting oil to certain Western European countries.

This announcement came at the same time that the vote in the Iranian parliament over a bill to cease exporting oil to Western European countries was postponed.

Qassami also said that he anticipates that oil will soon reach between $120 - $150 a barrel.

These statements and actions are all meant to strike fear into the hearts of Western decision makers.

Increasing the cost of oil to $150 a barrel will be a crushing blow to certain economies - especially Western European economies. These countries are dependent on oil - and they had already decided that as of June 31 they will not renew any new Iranian oil contracts.

That decision is at the root of Iran's decision to shoot back with statements and moves aimed at hurting Western Europe. Iran rightly believes that Europe cannot sustain itself without reasonably priced oil.

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Hamas Has Upset Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has a real problem. They have, to use a colloquialism, ticked off their sugar daddy.

And so, next week Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will be on his way to Iran to beg for money and support. Haniyeh just returned from his very first trip outside of Gaza, now he will be travelling again.

Iran is so angry at Hamas that under normal circumstances it would be doubtful that they would grant an extension on their lease - for life and for money.

What did Hamas do wrong? Hamas did not support Assad. Iran asked Hamas to lend support and instead Hamas spoke out against Assad. Now Hamas no longer has an interim home in Syria.

As if the situation was not grim enough, a group of Shiites were attacked a few weeks ago in Gaza. That was the nail in the coffin for Hamas.

Iran is not going to be easily swayed. The only thing going for Hamas is that Iran needs proxies and they need friends - now more than ever. If they beg hard enough, Hamas might just be able to bring Iran around, at least for the short term.

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Sacking Embassies in Cairo
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.

But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.

I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.

The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.

The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.

It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.

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Warning About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.

He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.

"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."

Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.

Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.

If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.

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US to Give Egypt Aid
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.

The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.

The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.

The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.

Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.

There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.

The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.

They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.

It just makes no sense.

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Monitors Pull Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.

These killings in Hama are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.

The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.

Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.

Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.

It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.

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Russia Sells Jets To Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.

According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.

There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.

It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.

The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.

All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.

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Arab League Continues in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.

This is good news for the Syrians.

However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.

The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.

This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.

I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.

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Motorcycle Assassins in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.

A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.

Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.

Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.

In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.

These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.

To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.

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Iran's Chess Moves
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.

Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.

This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.

At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.

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Shiites in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Shiites were brutally beaten in Gaza by Sunni Hamas forces this past Friday.

Traditionally, Shia has not had a presence in Gaza but over the past few months significant numbers of young people have converted to Shia.

Iran is a predominately Shiite country. Iran has been sponsoring programs and activities in Gaza. Iran has also been directly sponsoring Hamas.

Iran has already begun to reduce their contribution to Hamas and these brutal assaults might force them to further reduce it.

Initially, Iran reduced their donations because Hamas refuse to support Assad in Syria and Iran is very pro-Assad.

With violence breaking out between Shiites and Sunnis in Gaza it is highly unlikely that there will be much more money flowing off the Iranian gravy train towards Hamas and Gaza.

That's a mixed blessing.

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Rocket Falls on Ashkelon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Cyber terror has taken over the headlines in Israel this past week.

What most people don't realize, however, is that, real terror has reared its head and that story has gone largely uncovered.

Yesterday a rocket was shot from northern Gaza into Israel. Thankfully, no one was injured by the attack.

As the rocket approached, an alarm was sounded - it is called "Color Red." People had 15 seconds to find safety or get into the bomb shelters. The rocket landed in the beach area in southern Ashkelon.

There is a significant problem here. These rockets are launched with the specific purpose of terrorizing those Israeli residents who live within range. They have no real direction and no real targeting mechanism. They are shot, they fly and they land.

The rockets are launched less as a tool of destruction and more as a tool of terror and intimidation. It is the fear factor that is more important to those launching the rockets than the actual harm that may be done to people or property.

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More on Hacking
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now officially a cyber battle. Hackers against hackers.
The anti-Israeli hackers hit the Tel Aviv stock exchange yesterday as well as the website of the Israeli airline ELAL.

They also attacked Azerbaijan state sites. The hackers placed messages and images saying that the Azerbaijanians were traitors.
OxOmar, the self proclaimed Saudi hacker, joined forces with Nightmare, a hacking group that describes itself as pro-Palestinians.

These hackers want to cause Israel pain.

Now Israel must strike back. The point is not just to defend itself but actually to strike back because the reality is that given enough power and time and protection anyone can hack into anywhere.

To stop this hacking Israel must create a disincentive to breaking into their systems. They must ruin those who launched the attacks - not just destroy their current location but publicly out them and humiliate them.

Hackers need their privacy and hackers need to remain anonymous. To deny that is to destroy a hacker. It is the only way.
This is the only way.

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Assassinating Nuke Scientists
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week's assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan continues to generate international headlines.

Yesterday the Iranian speaker of the parliament was quoted in the Iranian news as saying that several people responsible for the assassination of the Nitanz nuclear scientist, the man who headed a major division of the nuclear plant, have been arrested.

Now a British paper has released important details on the attack that had not been made public before. According to the paper the assassination took place around the corner from the safest place in Teheran - the intelligence agency headquarters, which happens to be one of Ahmadinejad's pet agencies.

The British paper also reports that just prior to the assassination there was a flurry of police action and the police were all over the area - as if they had intel about an impending attack. And yet, with apparent ease, a motorcycle with two people on it simple attached a bomb and magnet to the scientist's car and sped away undetected.

It is highly unlikely that any of the people who have been arrested have anything to do with the attack or that they can lead back to any agency who helped in the attack.

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Iran Adviser Goes to Prison
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A senior adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday.

A reliable Iranian news website called Mashregh News reported that Ali Akbar Javanfekr, press adviser to the president, was sentenced to prison for insulting the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei .

Javanfekr will be imprisoned for one year and may not engage in any media activity for 5 years after his release.

This case is very illustrative of the nature and politics of Iran.

There should be no doubt that the Ayatollah is the Supreme Leader and everyone - even the president, must always remember that fact. Supreme Leader is one of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's official titles.

Iranian politics requires a sense of humility and no one, no one at all, is free to criticize anything or say whatever one desires.

Most importantly, this case clearly reiterates the rule of the land -whoever serves, does so by the grace of and with the blessings of the Supreme Leader. There is no other way.

He who forgets any of those truths will land in prison - or worse.

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US-Israel Attack Issues on Iran
By Micah Halpern

January 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The United States, especially the White House, has spent considerable time over these past few days trying to convince Israel not to strike Iran.

The US is unclear as to whether their message will be heeded, and that is very frustrating. But honestly, that is part of the Israeli defense strategy.

Allies and enemies are not supposed to be able to predict Israel's actions, especially the timetable for those actions.

There are several reasons why Israel is being ambiguous with the United States about their Iranian attack strategy. The most critical is that Israel is not certain that the US policy of sanctions and military buildup will make Iran back down. Now that another US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf area the US is saying that they have the situation under control, but Israel doesn't necessarily buy that.

Israel does not believe that, when the time comes, the United States will make the right call. So Israel is taking matters into their own hands and planning their own attack.

That frightens the United States - they worry that Israel is operating on a hair trigger.

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US Mixed Message to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted in the NYTIMES as saying that the United States is using back channels to tell Iran that closing the Straits of Hormuz is crossing a red line.

The message sounded extremely strong and unambiguous.
Until we heard the context.

The message said that there are two red lines that the United States will not permit Iran to cross. The first was closing the Straits of Hormuz. The second was advancing nuclear technology.
What began as an absolutely clear message ended as one of absolute ambiguity.

Iran knows full well that the US is unclear about the nuclear issue and that the United States has done nothing to aggressively curb their nuclear development other than demanding IAEA inspections.

Odds are the Iranians will recognize the US sensitivity to Hormuz and heed the warning. But they will not focus at all on the nuclear warning.

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Around the Embargo
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday a Russian ship carrying 60 tons of weapons travelling to Syria was stopped and taken to Cyprus.

While in Cyprus the ship changed its itinerary and listed its new destination as Turkey. The Russian ship was released. It then turned off its GPS locater. The ship was found docked at the Syrian port of Tartus.

The ship was originally stopped because of the embargo on delivering arms to Syria. The way around was to simply change the intended destination and turn off the GPS.

Is beating the embargo that easy? Yes it is.

The question we must now ask is this: Will there be a price to pay for violating the embargo. Russia will claim that it was a private ship owned by a private company with no link to the government of Russia. That is what they will claim.

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Killing Iranian Scientists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Another Iranian scientist has been killed by a bomb. The car bomb that killed this scientist is very similar to several other bombs that have been used to kill other Iranian scientists.

At first glance it makes no sense.

This victim was a professor of oil technology. Upon closer investigation it becomes clear that he was no ordinary scientist, he was the head of a division at Nitanz, the Iranian nuclear lab.

Iranian leadership is pointing the finger at Israel. The web is hopping with theories.

The wise-est guess is that the Israelis give assistance to a local group in order to kill the target. The bombs have the rudiments to be effective, but in almost each case, the bombs have been packed with too much explosive and the explosion turns – both literally and figuratively - into overkill.

Right now all we have is speculation.

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More Killing in Syria Since Monitors Arrived
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A closed door report was presented to the UN Security Council yesterday. The report said that 400 people have been killed in Syria since the Arab League monitors arrived several days ago.

US Ambassador Susan Rice correctly noted that the rate of deaths is significantly higher since the Arab monitors are on the scene.

Of course the Security Council attempted to censure Syria but that was stopped by China and Russia.

Why has the killing increased since the observers came to Syria? One reason is that the resistance has struck back heavily at the establishment and military and many civilian were hurt in the bombings.

One direct results of the presence of Arab monitors in Syria is that the resistance has been emboldened to take risks by attacking Syrian targets. The hope is that the established regime will not strike back as hard while observers are there.

It is unfortunate, but this scenario will cause more deaths.
Assad will continue to strike and strike even harder after he is attacked and he will claim that the resisters are terrorists who blow up civilians. Technically, he is not totally off base.

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Ahmadinejad on S America Tour
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is on a four nation South American trip. First stop - Venezuela.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad had a colorful and humorous meeting and then press conference. The butt of their jokes was the Western World.
Chavez said: "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out."

"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."

The two laughed and hugged.

Ahmadinejad is there to shore up support. He knows that sanctions are going to heighten and that he will need Chavez and his support. Part of what binds these men together is their resentment towards the West.

Iran and Venezuela must create a scenario in which they are unfairly victimized by the United States. That, in turn, will set the stage for the conspiracy and the persecution themes that run through their presentations.

This is how they gain and maintain support internally and how they build alliances.

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Rift Btw Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a huge internal rift erupted between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

Three senior Palestinian leaders were travelling to Gaza and they were refused entry by Hamas.

The event led to shouting and one of the senior PA officials, Sakher Bseisso, shouted prolonged curses using the name of the prophet.

This did not help their case.

A Hamas spokesman said that the PA had made their choice - and that the PA seemed to be prioritizing choosing the US and Israel over Palestinian unity and their agreement.

In response Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement that he is now revaluating the entire unity agreement between Hamas and the PA which stipulated that they were to share power and hold national elections on May 4.

The Palestinians cannot unite. Each side has too much at stake.

This is just one simple example. Hamas has agreed to become a member of the PLO and submit to Fatah leadership, but that just will not happen.

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Iran War Games
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We have heard about the recent military maneuvers conducted by Iran - when they shot surface to air missiles and other weapons.

Iran wanted us to hear about these military maneuvers. It is all part of an orchestrated move to exercise and flex their muscles making sure that the United States knows that the Iranians are capable of defending themselves. For internal consumption, these maneuvers were an important symbol of Iranian pride, telling the Iranians and their military that they have the weapons to repel any US aggression.

But even more interesting than their PR agendas is the military message the Iranians are also sending. These military exercises took place on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.

And then today another set of maneuvers took place not 40 miles from Afghanistan. This is Iran's way of sending a very strong message to those on the Afghani side of the border. The military message to the tribes was --- do not cross without permission.

Iran is in control of its border. Iran is totally out of control. That is not a contradiction, it is the Iranian way.

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Turkey to Return Envoy to Paris
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is returning their ambassador to Paris. He will be back in the embassy as of first thing Monday morning.

Last month Turkey withdrew the ambassador after the French parliament began debating a law to make it illegal to deny the genocide of the Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans in 1915. A fine of 45,000 Euros is part of the proposal.

This entire exchange shows how immature Turkey has become in the world of international diplomacy.

In the first 10 months of 2011,Turkish bi-national trade equaled $14 billion. France is Turkey's fifth largest export market and its 6th largest import source.

Pulling the ambassador was, simply put, a major mistake. Recalling their ambassador achieved nothing diplomatically and sent no message to France and taught the French absolutely nothing.

All it did was showcase Turkish leadership as immature and vindictive.

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Sunnis Murder Shiites in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the most bloody day in Iraq since the United States officially pulled out in December.

A series of coordinated bombings rocked Iraq. At least 72 Shiites were killed and many more were injured.

On one side of the country, pilgrims on their way to the Shiite holy city of Karabla were attacked by a suicide bomber. Others were killed and injured as roadside bombs exploded. One unexploded bomb was found. All the targets were Shiite pilgrims.

At the very same time, in the northern part of Baghdad, in the almost exclusively Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyeh, another series of explosions rocked the neighborhood.

These attacks are picture perfect examples of al Qaeda attacks against Shiites.

The internal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to foment. Al Qaeda wants to take advantage of this conflict and will continue to pound away at Shiite targets in Iraq.

To people who support al Qaeda, the Shiites represent heretics and they must be killed.

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Iran Currency Plunges
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's monetary currency, the Riyal, has plummeted 12% since Sunday.

On Saturday President Obama signed new sanctions against Iranian banks. Many Western observers are saying that free fall is due to those sanctions. Of course, the Iranians disagree.

The value of the Iranian Riyal, like other world currencies, is evaluated based on purchase power. If that power weakens the value of the currency falls.

There are several factors that make up that value. One of the factors is psychological. If people feel that there is a strong economy and stable government, the currency value grows. But if the economy is weakened or if there are attacks against the country's infrastructure, the currency's value drops.

The US boycott affects not only Iranian banks, it also effects anyone doing business with Iranian banks.

Bottom line: the Riyal only fell 12% - I am certain that those advising the president were hoping for a 25% fall in value.

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Saudis Hack Israel Credit Cards
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of anonymous Saudi computer hackers claim that they have hacked Israeli credit cards and posted 400,000 of them on line. They say that the personal information of 400,000 Israelis through their credit cards, including expiration dates, are now public.

The hackers hope to create mass hysteria in Israel and have 400,000 people storm their bank's headquarters.

Upon closer investigation, a student of math and computers at the well respected Israeli university called Technion said the hacker's claim is mostly bogus.

Ofer Schwartz says that the hack was really only of 18,000 cards and that the same details were repeated over and over to come to 400,000 entries.

This entire story raises an important issue about credibility and hackers reports. Very often in the hacker world stories are embellished and hackers hyperbolize. The story becomes bigger in order to make a bigger impact. But even in the hacker world there are people who try to set the record straight and keep people honest.
18,000 is a bad hack and should never have happened. But it is not 400,000.

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Santorum the Populist
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Rick Santorum announced that unless they let International Observers into their nuclear facilities, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.

The Republican nominee wannabe described the current US position developed by President Obama as one of turning the United States "into paper tigers."

The statement is POPULIST. We are seeing more and more of this populist jargon as the Republican primary and the presidential campaign chug along.

Populism has its great benefits. Populism is an attempt to emote a folksy political point of view. Populism represents the masses against the detached leadership.

Then again, populist political platforms almost always oversimplify to the point of being dangerous - and yet, populist points always sway voters, they fuel the momentum which brings voters to a candidate.

Rick Santorum is correct to push for action because he will get support. Where his populism fails is that bombing the nuclear sites does not solve the problem - it opens up a series of other, very complicated, problems.

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Brotherhood Rejects Israel Treaty
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arabic newspaper Al Hayat which is headquartered in London is the pulse of much of what happens in the Arabic world. Al Hayat ran an interview with Rashad Bayoumi the #2 person in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leading in the elections for parliament. Together with the Nouri party, another extremist Muslim party, the extremists can already claim about 75% of the seats in the parliament.

Bayoumi said that the Muslim Brotherhood will never recognize Israel and will never sit with Israel. He said that they will "ask the people" i.e. call for a referendum, about the treaty.

In response to the question of the Brotherhood's adhering to international treaties which they claimed they would do, Bayoumi said that the Brotherhood did not sign the treaty with Israel and that he does not see it as binding.

"We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people's freedom and sovereignty ... The people will express their opinion on the matter."

Bayoumi continued by saying that "each side has the right to re-examine the treaty."

This does not bode well for the region or for US interests.

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Riots In Egypt over Facebook Pic
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There are riots in Southern Egypt. Christians are getting beaten and church property is being destroyed.

The riots began because an image of the Prophet Mohamed was posted on the Facebook page of a 17 year old Christian student. The student, Gama Massoud, has been arrested for creating an image of the Prophet.
The student denies that he did it. Massoud claims that someone else posted the image on his page.

The significance of these events is gargantuan. Look at what happened: Because an image was posted on Facebook there were two days of violence - riots, beatings and burnings. Someone was arrested for posting an imagined picture of Mohammed and he claims that his friends did it as a practical joke and that lands him in prison. People can die in these riots.

We in the West blithely assume that Egypt is making the trek along the road to democracy. This does not look anything like the democracy we know.

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More Anti Nuke Worms
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Stuxnet and DUQU? They were 2 of the worms that have attacked Iranian nuclear installations and computer systems.

Yesterday the Russian anti-virus company names Kaspersky gave even more insight in to the worms. They confirmed that the worms were related. This is what I have said since the end of October when DUQU arrived on the scene.

But most importantly Kaspersky says that there are five more worms. They called them cousins.

My contacts explain that more worms like Stuxnet were inevitable. The principle behind the worm is to attack Iran. Not to attack once but to constantly attack. And each attach sets the stage for another future attack.

There are two reasons why there must be more Stuxnet worms:

The worms cost too much money to develop and as such they need a complete set of them.

A single attack would never be significant enough to ultimately ruin the Iranian nuclear system.

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US Resumes Aid To PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress agreed to free $40 million of aid and give it to the Palestinians. This is 20% of the $187 million that was frozen by Congress after the Palestinians began their move for statehood which put them in the Congressional doghouse.

The Obama administration has been pushing to free up aid saying that the money will help stabilize the Palestinian areas.

The Administration also claims that Israel is in favor of freeing the aid money.

All along the Palestinians knew that the US could not withhold the aid. And unfortunately, they were correct.

If the aid goes through, the Palestinians will be made to suffer no consequences for publically and internationally humiliating the United States.

And the Palestinians continue to act against US interests and still ask for more money. Now they are pursuing a plan of unity with Hamas. That can only end in one way - in anti-Western and anti-US actions.

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Iran Threatens to Shut Down the World's Oil
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if more sanctions are levied on them by the West. The Straits are a narrow water way through which about 30% of the world's oil travels on any given day.

Iran's first Vice President Mohammad Raza Rahimi was quoted in IRNA yesterday saying "If they (the West) imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz."

Much of the Straits are in the territorial water's of Iran. Until now Iran has permitted the international community to use the Straits as if they were international waters - but that is only by their grace. That fact seems to have eluded the United States and most other Western countries in their bid to apply sanctions against Iran.

It is in the vital interests of the United States to keep those Straits open. But at any time the Iranians can legally shut the Straits down. Iran will probably make this argument in advance in order to totally disarm any potential attack against them.

In addition the Iranians have just announced that they will seek the death penalty for an America caught and being tried as a spy.

Bundling these issues demonstrates how Iran is planning to utilize
pressure to achieve their diplomatic goals. Once again, the Iranians are very good at what they do.

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Iran Exports Gasoline
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Afghanistan have just signed a gasoline and jet fuel deal that will begin next week.

According to the deal, Iran promises to provide 1 million tons of gasoline and jet fuel to Afghanistan.

This agreement is very significant - it proves what I have been saying for at least 18 months: Iran is not suffering from sanctions.

Common knowledge was that Iran produced oil, but still needed to import 45% of its gasoline. That number was then reduced to 30%.

And now Iran exports oil. Iran refines oil and has plenty left over to sell.

Those who thought that sanctions would cripple Iran because they did not have gas were simply wrong. The sanctions motivated Iran. They updated and built new refineries. And because Afghanistan borders
Iran it will be easy to transport the gasoline.

Once again, proof of just how good Iran is at playing this game.

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PA Hamas Unity
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli and US leadership are asking the big question.

Western European leaders are asking the same thing.

Speaking about peace is one thing - but what about actions?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been speaking about peace but at the same time that his lips are moving, his arms are hugging freed terrorists and making deals with Hamas.

Serious thinkers and conscientious leaders want to know what Abbas really wants to accomplish. They are beginning to say that Abbas cannot have it both ways.

Is Abbas influencing Hamas or is Hamas going to influence Abbas?
Any unity government, in fact, any agreement of any type with Hamas is dangerous. And now there is a PA/Hamas agreement that has not yet been made public.

Hamas is sworn to the destruction of Israel. It is highly unlikely that Hamas leaders will change their charter even if, for the short term, they agree to a cease fire and not attack Israel.

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Christmas Bombing in Nigeria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Christmas Day 5 explosions rocked Nigeria. At least 25 people were killed.

The explosions were attacks on churches. They were attacks on Christians celebrating Christmas.

The attacks were coordinated. The goal was to intimidate Christians. The group called Boko Haram almost certainly perpetrated these murderous bombings.

Let me give you a sense of the philosophy of the group: The name Boko Haram means "Western education is sacrilege" or "Western philosophy is a sin."

Boko Haram is a Muslim group and they want total Islamic control over all aspects of life in Nigeria. There is nothing more threatening to them than other religious points of view - and Christianity means Western culture.

Boko Haram attacks show a continued increase in sophistication and planning. Their attacks are becoming more and more deadly and more and more, they are targeting specific symbols of Western values.

I am shocked that the response to these attacks has been so muted.

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France & Turkey in Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was a true diplomatic scuffle between France and Turkey.
As of Now Turkey has recalled their ambassador from Paris and they do not plan on having him return.

It happened as a result of a bill, passed in the French Parliament, making it illegal to deny genocide - specifically the genocide of the Armenians which took place at the close of WW I at the hands of the Turks.

The Turks have called the bill racist and will not even posit a public argument to debate the issue.

French diplomats have asked Turkey to discuss the matter, suggesting that pulling an ambassador is a very serious diplomatic act.

The French are suggesting that there are other, better methods of resolving differences.

Observers are not placing bets on a reconciliation, they see this diplomatic posturing as indicative of the new Turkey.

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PLO & Hamas Are Uniting
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Hamas Politburo Chief Haled Mashaal. The meet was held in Cairo, Egypt.

Hamas agreed in principle to join the PLO, the political party of the PA. And then they decided to set up a series of committees - including an election committee to plan the next election for the PA.

This is a huge step.

It is hard to say whether it is a positive or a negative step, but it is a step.

Hamas has never recognized the PA government because Hamas won the plurality in the last election but then never had an opportunity to govern because Abbas ousted Hamas and their prime minister. That led to Hamas throwing the PLO and booting the PA out of Gaza in a bloody coup.

Since then Hamas and the PA have not been able to agree on power sharing.

Because Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come together it does not necessarily follow that Hamas will not run in the election.
The PLO is by definition an umbrella for many Palestinian organizations. What it means is Hamas is confident that if they do run, they will once again win the plurality.

These are not the Republicans and the Democrats - they are and will always be the PA and Hamas.

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Hamas Thrown Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has refused to meet with Hamas leader Haled Mashaal.

This tension is not new.

It began several months ago when Hamas called for reforms in Syria.

Since then Hamas has been asked to leave Syria.

Hamas had found digs elsewhere.

Hamas' main offices are now in Jordan, with some other facilities in Qatar.

Jordan granted Hamas safety under one condition: absolutely no operations be initiated from Jordan - that means no planning and no execution of operations.

Mashaal accepted the conditions and moved almost the entire Hamas bureaucracy base to Amman. But because they also need an operations center, the Qatar office was opened.

Should Israel discover that Hamas operations were being executed out of Jordan, that would be casus belli which means an incident of war and hence - a reason for war. If that were to happen it could and it would legally permit Israel the right to strike Hamas operation centers in Jordan.

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Iran Moving Its Websites Home
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just decided to move 90%of all their websites - into Iran. Until now they were hosted by private servers and companies outside Iran.

The Iranians believe that this will render their websites more difficult to hack and make them impenetrable.

Of course, the opposite is true.

Until now the Iranians blamed the hosts for the hacks. The reality is that the hackers were very, very good at what they did. There is only so much a host can do when the hackers are dedicated and relentless.

Bringing the websites to Iran is a problem. Iran has neither the people nor the technology to defend their websites, to constantly update and to fend off attacks.

This decision will only make Iran's websites easier to hack and allow hackers better access to Iran.

For everyone outside Iran, that's good news.

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Syria Shoots Deserters
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria yesterday 60 to 70 deserters were gunned down as they were running away from their posts.

This is the first situation in Syria where so many soldiers deserted at a single time. In order to make certain that the soldiers did not escape, machine guns were used to shoot them dead.

Until now desertion has not been a serious issue Syria.

This incident can go both ways.

It can intimidate other soldiers not to desert out of fear of being executed.

Or it could move more soldiers to plot a clean escape out of an oppressive military environment.

This shooting is extremely telling. Syrians are running away and other Syrians think nothing of shooting to kill.

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Extremists Win Again in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the second set of elections took place in Egypt. Nine more provinces went to the polls to vote for the Egyptian Parliament which is composed of 498 representatives.

Once again the two largest Muslim extremist parties, the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice party and the Salafi al- Nour party, garnered a large majority of the vote. This time they came home with 75% of the vote, gaining even more votes in the second set of elections than extremist parties did three weeks ago when the first nine provinces went to the polls.

This time the FJP (Freedom and Justice Party) received 40% of the vote and the Salafi al-Nour party received 35%.

In the previous election the Nour party received 24% and the Muslim Brotherhood garnered 37%.

The next set of provinces is scheduled to vote in January.

None of this should surprise anyone. The first set of elections took place in more urban centers, the second set in rural provinces. The rule is that: the more urban the more likely to vote non-extremist, the more rural the more likely to vote for the extremists.

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Egypt Blows Up Pipeline
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Once again the gas pipelines in the Sinai desert of Egypt have been attacked by terrorists.

This is the 10th time in the recent past that attempts have been made to explode the pipe lines - and it will not be the last time. The terrorists want to disrupt the flow of natural gas to Israel. They want to hurt Israel.

Problem is, the terrorists still don't get it.

Israel has been weaning itself from Egyptian natural gas. They are far less dependent than they once were. Jordan, however, is still nearly 90% dependent on Egyptian natural gas. The terrorist plan to hurt the Jewish State actually ends up crippling an Arab state instead.

What is most strange is that these pipelines are supposed to be guarded by the Egyptian army. The army has simply been sound asleep on the job. By virtue of their silence, the Egyptian army is sending a signal to the terrorists that it is all right to continue their attacks on the gas pipelines of Sinai.

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US Meets with Musilm Brotherhood
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week US Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson, together with US Senator and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry, met with representative from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

This is no small feat.

This is the first time any official meetings have taken place at this high a level. In diplomatic speak, the ambassador is called a senior government official. The chairman is referred to as an influential political leader or politician.

The meeting was a shift in US policy. It was a move away from isolating the Muslim Brotherhood towards acknowledging them as a major player in the new Egypt.

Here is the problem: The Muslim Brotherhood is not democratic and should never have been permitted to stand for election in the first place. But they did.

So now, because they are such a significant power, the United States has begun to court them. For their part, the Brotherhood has not shown any reciprocal interest.

We need to wait and see. The Muslim Brotherhood sometimes surprises us.

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US Drone Was Hacked
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The top secret US Bat Drone that the Iranians now possess - and are in the process of reverse engineering, was, according to a report in the Christian Science Monitor, hacked and hijacked.

The logic works. The huge question was this: how could the drone, which was being displayed on Iranian TV, be in such good condition. There were no signs of damage which would make no sense at all if it fell from the air or was shot down.
Now we have the answer.

The report which is based on Iranian sources says that Iran hacked the control system of the drone and took advantage of it while it was in between GPS connections. Evidently the Iranians knew that there were GPS gaps in the drone's link to it handlers and that during that time, the drone was vulnerable.

Iranian hackers tricked the drone into landing, making it think that it was returning to Afghanistan. This information was gleaned from other downed US drones.

The entire episode is an embarrassment to the United States. It is the beginning of a dangerous and unfortunate new reality. Iran has some of the US's latest technology. And the United States just handed it over to them. The only thing missing was a big bow.

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US Drone in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 15, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Now, a week later, it is obvious that the Iranians are in possession of a US Bat Drone. Both the president and the secretary of state of the United States have asked the Iranians to please give it back. The answer was a resounding NO!

The Iranians want to reverse engineer the drone. According to Iranian press reports the Chinese, the Russian and the North Koreans have all called and asked to see the drone.

I do not understand why the US did not outfit the drone with a kill switch. That drone should have been destroyed as soon as it went out of US control.

Each drone should be outfitted with a switch that either destroys everything inside or a self destruct mechanism that fries the entire mechanism. These are built specifically to prevent reverse engineering.

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Iran & Saudi Ministers Meet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi met with Saudi Intelligence Minster Prince Nayef.

This was indeed a very unusual meeting.

This was the first interaction between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the United States accused Iran of plotting to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington, DC.

There is no question that tensions are running high between these two polar opposites countries. The agenda of this tete a tete was almost certainly to smooth over the terrible animosity that has emerged the countries.

I was not a fly on that wall, but I can say with the wisdom gained from years of studying and analyzing these countries and the region, that the Iranians did not apologize but rather - came with an explanation.

They probably said that yes, these were former Iranians plotting the assassination, but that the members of the cell caught by the United States were rogues and amateurs. That it had nothing to do with Iranian's real leadership. That Iran would not jeopardize the stability of the region by plotting such an assassination.
And Saudi Arabia, I believe, walked away satisfied.

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Israel Launches Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel launched their Amos 5 satellite from somewhere in Kazakhstan.

The Amos 5 is the newest and most sophisticated satellite that Israel has launched. It can and will serve as a communications hub for all of Israel's interactions. It will also be used to transmit and relate the clearest of all images from around the globe.

Israel's satellite systems are enormously important tools in protecting Israel. They gather information and enable Israel to observe and interpret the actions of both friends and foes.

Satellites also permit Israel to trade information and intelligence with the United States and other world powers.

Because of their state of the art satellites, Israel is a player in world intelligence.

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Arab PM Cries in Public
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The acting temporary prime minister of Egypt broke down in tears while speaking to the press yesterday.

Kamal el Ganzouri is the third person to hold the position of temporary prime minister in Egypt since February, when Hosni Mubarak was ousted.

Ganzouri cried as he described the economic situation in Egypt. He said that the Egyptian economy is worse than anyone can imagine. He said that the state of tourism is horrific and that crime is rampant.

Seldom have I ever witnessed a tearful Arab leader. Certainly I have never seen an emotional display of this sort in public and not ever when discussing the economy.

It will be interesting to see how the Egyptians and other Arabs interpret this act. Will they describe it as an act of weakness or will they describe it as pathos.

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Iran Nuke Factory Explosion
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Two weeks ago a huge explosion was heard in Isfahan, the third largest city in Iran.

The explosion came from a factory that refined yellow cake also known as urania. The blast was reported on Iranian websites - but then quickly taken down.

Now there are intelligence satellite pictures that show bulldozers at work clearing rubble and destroying buildings in the factory compound.

The pictures in and of themselves do not say anything - but they allow so to make inferences as to what truly happened as a result of that blast.

We can infer that the factory was badly damaged by the explosion and we can infer that Iranian decision makers are either knocking down the building in order to rebuild it, or in order to eliminate evidence of any explosion.

Any way you look at it, it is clear that Iran's nuclear program was damaged. The extent of that damage is harder to assess.

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How To Oust Assad
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is only one way to topple Bashar Assad of Syria. There needs to be a massive armed uprising.

And the Syrians are so far from making that happen.

True, a massive armed uprising would mean an enormously high number of deaths on the side of the resisters - but it is the only way. A simple, small uprising would only make matters and the lives of Syrians worse.

As of now Assad has the army behind him and very few military have defected from the army. Those who have defected are not from elite units and do not have great training. If they have weapons they are small and have limited ammo.

A massive uprising would require mass defections from the army, but that is not happening because everyone had the feeling that whatever they do, it will be useless. Assad is strong and Assad is ruthless.

The uprising I am talking about will need outside aid with weapons. But until there is a united voice for the opposition within Syria, outside sources of help cannot and will not help them.

Even when they try to act like opposition resistance forces, they get it wrong. The two major resistance groups in Syria decided to restrict their attacks against Assad's forces and instead, only defend the demonstrators.

That is a step backwards for regime change.

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Muslim Brotherhood is Winning
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood claimed electoral victory yesterday in the second round of elections in Egypt. This past Monday and Tuesday there was a two day run off for 45 individual seats. These seats are not connected to the party - the people ran on their own.

The Muslim Brotherhood claims to have won 34 of the 45 individual seats.

This segment of the election was held in 9 of the most urban of provinces in Egypt. If their claim is proven correct and this trend continues that will mean the Muslim Brotherhood will control nearly 75% of the 498 seats up for election in the Egyptian parliament.
These results should be truly worrying for the West and there is nothing we can do about it.

Once again the West's push for democrat elections in an Arab country results in Islamic extremists rising to power and control.


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US Sends Ambassador Back to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United States returned its ambassador to Syria last night.

Ambassador Ford had been recalled for a combination of reasons. One reason was for his personal safety. The other was that the White House was sending a message to Syrian President Assad.

There was good intel that the US ambassador to Syria was becoming a target. For his safety they brought him back. In response, Syria withdrew its own ambassador from DC.

Now the question is: why would the US return Ambassador Ford?

The official reason is to help make certain US interests are served. But France is also returning its ambassador. France and Italy are the two European countries who withdrew their ambassadors in the first place.

When the United States and France return their ambassadors to Syria, you can bet there is a very important back story. So what's the real, not official reason? The US and France want and need trusted observers and diplomats on the ground in Syria.

It is a shame.

Saudi Arabia is not for a moment thinking of returning its ambassador.

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Iranians Expecting
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iranians in the capital city of Teheran live in fear of an air strike that might happen at any time, on any day.

Since last week's raids on the two British embassy compounds in Teheran, Iranians are almost certain that retaliation will come in the form of an air strike.

Citizens have been stockpiling food and necessities. Foreigners have been pouring out of the country and the international schools have all closed. The French international school, which is located on the British Embassy compound, watched as the mobs attacked the embassy. They have since closed. The German school located nearby has closed and the British school - which is not located on the compound, has also been closed.

Iranians see all the closings as forebodings, they take is as a sign of a Western attack.

Actually, the schools closed to protect the students. Just like the British embassy these schools are Western institutions. They are very public and easy targets. The rioters and extremists could easily attack them.

Until the tone changes and tensions and calm are restored, the schools will remain closed and the people of Teheran will remain fearful.

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Iran Thinks it was a Virus
By Micah Halpern

December 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

My sources are telling me that Iran has, with almost certainty, come to the conclusion that the huge explosion that rocked the Algahdir missile base on November 12th, the explosion that killed 36 people including the head of the Iranian missile program - was caused by a worm.

The Iranians are now seriously trying to determine if the explosion was caused by either the Stuxnet or the DUQU virus.

If they are correct, it means that their systems are still seriously infected. It means that the Iranian missiles, the main weapon in any attack by Iran on Western targets or on Israel, are out of commission. It means that the Shahab 3 and the Sejil 2 are now useless.

People say that it will take Iran two to three months to clean their systems of the viruses. My tech people do not believe that to be the case. They say that there is really no way to clean these worms from your system. The virus becomes dormant and is not detected - but it has not gone away. Actually, it creates a false trail suggesting that your defense has detected and removed the virus while in reality, it is still deeply embedded in your system.

If the Iranians are correct, their entire missile system is in jeopardy. And that is good news for the West.

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Iran is Not Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

As the rhetoric continues to escalate in Iran about a potential strike and then their counter strike, we need to pay careful attention to what is being said and who is saying it.

Iranian Defense Minister Ahamed Vahidi was quoted recently saying: "Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, if the Americans make the mistake and attack Iran, we will show them how to fight."

The Defense Minister continued: "Israel has to be punished for what it has done to the Muslims in Palestine and Lebanon."

Vahidi said all this in front of 50,000 volunteer recruits to the Revolutionary Guard and concluded his remarks by saying that if Israel attacks Iran they will be hit by 150,000 missiles.

Iran does not have 150,000 rockets that have the range to hit Israel -- they have many fewer. But the minister was making a rhetorical point. He was preaching to the converted, he was egging them on.

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Iran Rhetoric Running High
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is torquing up the tensions and really applying the rhetoric.

Iranian military leader Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guards' Division of Aerospace, recently said that Iran will target the NATO missile defense shield in Turkey if the United States or Israel attacks the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian general was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency as saying that this warning is part of a new defense strategy to counter what Iran sees as an increase in threats from the United States and Israel.

In other words, Iran is giving notice that they will strike at US bases and their ally's bases.

The threats are increasing and they are real - but this is also about politics, US politics. Republican candidates, in debate after televised debate, keep spouting on about Iran without any real sense of the ramifications of their words.

Iran is responding in kind.

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Insight Into an Iranian Mind
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Several weeks ago there was a massive explosion that rocked a missile base just outside of Teheran. 18 people were killed. One of those killed was General Hassan Teherani Moqaddam, head of the missile program.

It is still unclear what caused the explosion. Some have said it was the Mossad, others have said that it was insurgents and anti-government underground forces. The government has been asserting that the explosion was an accident.

The explosion could have been caused by any or all of those reasons. Add to that the computer virus that has badly infected Iranian Siemens systems and there is another possible cause.

What is fascinating me right now is a Basij website that reported that the general's last will and testament said that he wants his tombstone to say "the person buried here wanted to destroy Israel."

For General Moqaddam, as for many leaders in the Iranian regime - and not only religious leaders as many people mistakenly believe, destroying Israel is a primary life objective.

That is mind boggling. That is insight into the Iranian mind.

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Russia Moves Carrier to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send its only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kuznetzov, to join a flotilla of war ships to Syria.

The Russians have built a multi-billion dollar navy base in Tartus, Syria. Tartus will be the new base of operations for the entire Russian presence in Middle East, especially for its submarine force.

Tartus is just north of Lebanon and a stone's throw from Turkey. It is practically next to Israel. And it is the second largest port of Syria.

Moving its aircraft carrier - its only aircraft carrier to Syria, makes a very strong statement.

This move says that Russia is going to support Syria on the ground and in the arena - not just in the United Nations Security Council where they continue to veto sanctions and any action against the Syrians.

Russia has too much to lose if Assad falls. That is why the Russians are doing their best to bolster Syria and secure the position of Bashar Assad.

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Explosion in Iran At Nuke Plant
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A huge explosion occurred in the Iranian city of Isfahan at 2:40 in the afternoon local time yesterday. According to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, the explosion took place in their uranium enrichment plant.

Soon after the piece was posted on FARS, it was removed. All the other official news sites in Iran quoted officials saying that no such explosion had occurred.

The Isfahan plant enriches uranium. It makes urania which is popularly known as Yellowcake. The Yellowcake is transformed into UF6 Gas which is the shortened form of Uranium Hexafuoride Gas. After the UF6 Gas is produced it is shipped to Natanz and Qom.

The explosion did take place and it did a great amount of damage. It resembles the explosion that happened two weeks ago outside of Teheran at the Revolutionary Guard's missile base.
In that explosion 18 people were killed including the general in charge of the missile program.

Isfahan is Iran's third largest city. People know about the uranium conversion plant - it is located too close to the city for people not to hear and know what happened.

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Egypt Election
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Elections will be held in Egypt tomorrow and Tuesday. This is the beginning of a long, extended, election for the lower parliament which does not conclude until January.

There is an array of parties and the entire election process is unclear. There will certainly be bullying and corruption. There will be no international observers.

The follow up, the upper parliament and presidential election, is scheduled for the end of June.

Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council, has begged people to come out and vote. The problem is that when there is crisis, those who do vote - vote for the extremes.

Because there has been almost no education about the parties running for election and no education about the voting process - very few Egyptians will ultimately come out to vote. They do not know where to go and have no idea of when to vote or how the votes will be tallied.

Egypt has no single independent body watching the process. It is a recipe for corruption and for extremism.

This is electoral anarchy. That is the worst kind of elections.
Just wait and see.

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Morocco Election
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco held an election on Saturday and The Party for Justice and Development (PJD) won the plurality. That means it won more votes than any other party, but not a majority. Now they need to form a coalition in order to rule.

There are about 33 million people in Morocco. 13 million are registered to vote and 45% of that group actually voted. In other words, about 6 million came out to the polls.

The PJD is an Islamic party. In all likelihood they will join with the left wing socialist party and two other parties in the current ruling coalition.

Bottom line: those who voted the Islamic line hoping for an Islamic state, will be disappointed.

For Moroccans in general the results of this election mean that there is virtually no chance to solve their country's 30 % unemployment and their huge deficit. It means that the 8.5 million Moroccans, 25% of the country, now living in abject poverty will continue to live in abject poverty.

Morocco now joins Tunisia as the second Muslim country to elect an Islamic plurality. These elections do not portend well for change. At best, there will be no impact on the lives of the voters, at worst - well, let's just hope for the best.

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Rally In Cairo Shouts to Kill Jews
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo, Egypt there was a rally attended by about 8,000 people.

The one verse quoted from the Koran, repeated over and over, by speaker after speaker, was this: "We will kill all the Jews."

One speaker said that the reason the US is losing in Afghanistan is because Muslims are willing to die for their cause. He said that: "Muslims have a different mentality."

Speakers referred to freeing Tel Aviv.

Speakers spoke about Jerusalem and how Muslim holy sites are being Juda-ized.

Speakers called on Muslims to unite and defend themselves against the Zionists and the United States.

The theme was: unite against the common enemy - Jews, Israel and the West.

The speaker who said Muslims have a different mentality was right. These rallies are deserving of more coverage in the mainstream Western press. The Western world needs to know what is going on, needs to understand how much the Muslim world hates us.

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Sanctions Don't Always Work
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Sanctions are the kind of thing Westerners understand. They are one of the only tools that can have an impact and that can help convince oppressive regimes to change.

Sometimes they work - sometimes they have the opposite effect.
Syria is the perfect example.

The EU has stepped up their sanctions on Syria. Heating oil, specifically, is not to be exported to Syria.

So who gets hurt by the lack of heating oil in Syria? The very people who want to oust Assad. Assad is not hurt at all, he has plenty of heating oil and he makes certain that those loyal to him have heat.

There was a delivery of heating oil to Syria on Wednesday by AOT, a Swiss company. Unfortunately, they are the only ones who understand what is really happening.

If ousting Assad is a priority, the actions applied should place pressure on Assad, not on those we are trying to support and to protect.

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Bulldozers in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli army is preparing for a major offensive in Gaza.

The division that will be primary in the operation is the engineering corps. Right now the army is trying to understand the TUNNELS.

It was through the use of tunnels that Hamas was able to capture and hold Gilad Shalit. In the eyes of the Israeli army, it is the tunnels that will be the key to any future offensive against Hamas.

One of the things the engineering corps is investigating is how effective their D-9 bulldozers are. They are determining how far can the bulldozers can go inside Gaza and how deep they can dig.

These are humongous vehicles. These are intimidating machines with great strength. They can destroy any structure above or below the ground. But they have to know where to go to be effective.

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Presidential Debate
By Micah Halpern

November 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy & National Security

*It should be clear that foreign policy is enormously important to the task of the president --- but it is not foreign policy that influences voters. Very few people say I support this candidate because of his/her foreign policy POV.

*Foreign policy segues into national security. Threats against the US and against US interests begin abroad. Those threats need to be understood - they are what stimulates terror and threatens the homefront.

* Several of the candidates make the debates interesting - but they are not real candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate. He articulated libertarian ideas which are growing in popularity, but are wrong vis a vis for example, the Middle East. Rick Perry is another such candidate - his no fly zone over Syria is "way out there" it makes no sense and shows a lack of understanding of the way international decisions are made.

All the candidates did well - there were no major gaffs which also means that there were no memorable moments.

Each candidate is really only dealing in theory. These threats against the US are truly overwhelming and will only be actually understood after the first security briefing.

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Bloody Day in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Monday was a bloody day in Egypt.
At least 33 people were killed in clashes between the army and protesters.

As a direct result of the violence, the entire Egyptian cabinet submitted its resignation to the Supreme Military Council later that day.

The Council accepted their resignations.

This is all happening during the week that the first stage of Egyptian parliamentary elections is to take place.

There is very little chance that the election will be democratic and even less chance that Egypt will usher out the Supreme Military Council.

The army rules in Egypt and I expect they will continue to rule in the near future.

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Kissinger & the Jews
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Newly released documents show just what Henry Kissinger thought about American Jewish leadership. It is not flattering.

Quotes from 1972 tell of Kissinger talking to Nixon aide Leonard Garment, who is also Jewish. In one exchange Kissinger asks, "Is there a more self-serving group of people than the Jewish community?" Garment, answers "None in the world."

Then Kissinger expounds on his earlier point "What the hell do they think they are accomplishing? You can't even tell bastards anything in confidence because they'll leak it."

I cannot say that I am surprised, but this does not make me feel comfortable. What is most deplorable to me is that Henry Kissinger has made millions of dollars speaking to Jews and advising Jewish groups - and the Jewish community has always taken pride in his accomplishments and showered Kissinger with respect.

Given these statements I do not think this self-hating Jew deserves such respect.

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Thousands Rally in Cairo
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Friday is the Sabbath in the Islamic world. It is the perfect time for protests and rallies.

Yesterday, in Tahrir Square, 10's of thousands of Egyptians gathered to shout out against their military government. The main organizers and the main groups that attended the rally were religious groups - principally the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Supreme Military Council is the body that has been in charge of Egypt since Mubarak stepped down. Some people do not think that the Military will step aside - even after any elections.

Egyptian elections are slated for November 25th. But they are not final elections, they are the first of a series of elections that will be dragging out over months.

The people who came to the square to protest are expressing their anger.

Signs read: "Down with the Military." "We are not an Army Camp." "The Koran is our Constitution."

This last one is important. The draft of the new constitution contains an article giving the military council the power to supersede elected president.

This is the country that the Western world, specifically the United States, is hoping will turn into a democracy.

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IAEA Mission to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA now has a plan for Iran. They want to create a mission. That's UN terminology for an onsite study.

Last week the IAEA issued a scathing report on Iran. You would think that the IAEA would now take some real action, especially after 15 years of walking on a tightrope with Iran.

But no ... the IAEA once again lives up to their tradition.

In response to their own damning report, the IAEA geared up, took a deep breath and asked Iran for permission to visit their nuclear facilities and inspect them again.

I ask you: What is the IAEA really there for?

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Syria Opposition Takes a Stand
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syria's opposition is beginning to strike at Syrian military targets.
For the first time in eight months the handful of army deserters that now form the opposition are using their training, their weapons and their knowledge to hit Syrian army targets.

At 2:30AM, in the dark of night, a major military target on the edge of Damascus was attacked by shoulder mounted rockets and machine gun fire. At least six soldiers were killed and over twenty were wounded.

The opposition targeted an air force intelligence center. In Syria, the army and air force intelligence agencies are responsible for tracking and finding deserters.

This attack is a watershed, it was well planned and executed.

Attacks like prove to the Syrian that the balance can shift. Attacks like this one would be proof that Assad and his forces are vulnerable and even beatable.

These attacks can move the opposition up a notch, propelling them from the protest stage to actual conflict.

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Fayyad Wants Palestinian Unity
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestine Prime Minister Salam Fayyad gave an interview to al Quds, an official Palestinian media outlet, yesterday.

In the interview Fayyad asserted that unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is a major objective and is an essential ingredient in moving ahead and gaining statehood. He referred to statehood as the "Palestinian dream."

He said: let there be a new prime minister.

Fayyad was never elected, instead, he was appointed by President Abbas in a move to oust Hamas from political power.

For Hamas, Fayyad is the symbol of the political power that was stolen from them by the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas has never accepted Fayyad as prime minister and it is no secret to anyone - including Fayyad, that in order to have any unity between Hamas and the PA, Fayyad must step aside.

The problem is that Fayyad is one of the only people in the Palestinian government who understands how a government should work and he is actively working for reforming in order to achieve some sense of government accountability and responsibility.

This is a Palestinian Catch - 22.

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Iran Hit by Another Virus
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The virus struck again.

Iran has been hit once again by a computer virus. This virus, which is very similar to the Stuxnet, is called DUQU.

Iran admitted that they have been hit and are saying that it is now under control.

Symantec (Norton) identified the worm on October 19th. It is hard to imagine that Iran managed to get it under control so quickly.

The DUQU virus attacks Windows fonts systems, it also gathers information and intel for further attacks. The virus has already been indentified in 12 countries - but the hacker community buzz is 100% certain that the target was Iran.

The name DUQU comes from the prefix of the file it creates. It looks like this ~DQ.

Stuxnet specifically attacked Siemens systems. Siemens controls water, electricity, gas, oil and of course, nuclear technology.

It is highly unlikely that Iran has either of these worms under control. The only way to know for sure is to actually use the weapons system.

DUQU is a major setback for Iran - and that is good news for the rest of the world.

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Mossad & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The internet is lit up about the explosion in Iran at a missile base located only 25 miles outside of Teheran.

The explosion killed 17 members of the elite Revolutionary Guard, including a general.

Speculation is that the Israeli Mossad is behind the attack. The Mossad could not have done it on its own, so added speculation says that Israel acted together with MEK, the Mujahedeen e Kalq.

The MEK is a well organized anti-regime movement in Iran that has the very strong support of wealthy Iranians living in exile.

The word was that MEK, together with the Mossad, is responsible for a slew of attacks including those against the Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at other military installations over the past few years.That's the speculation. But the reality is that even if the Mossad supports these acts, it is highly unlikely that they are involved. It is almost impossible to run agents in Iran.

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Arab League Suspends Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League suspended Syria. The suspension takes effect as of November 16.

I never thought it would happen.

This was such a surprise move that even caught many Arab League members unawares. It was 18 votes for suspension and only Yemen, Lebanon and, of course, Syria voting against the suspension.

The Arab League has been trying to pressure Syria top stop killing civilians. And each time, even after Syria agreed to stop the killing, it continued - sometimes just minutes and hours after the agreements were reached.

Last week another agreement was reached to stop the killing - and at least 250 civilians have been killed since then.

The Arab League is saying that they will now institute sanctions against Syria and they are calling all members to withdraw their ambassadors. They are walking the walk and talking the talk.

This move by the Arab League may be the most significant step towards ousting Assad.

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Iran Warns Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has warned Israel not to attack Iran.

Larijani made it clear that the Iranians are well prepared to defend themselves. He made it clear that should Israel attack, it will be very costly for Israel for the US and for their allies.

Of course, the Speaker did not call Israel by name. In Iran the conventional form is to refer to Israel only as the Zionist Entity and sometimes, as the Zionist Occupier.

The question is whether the Speaker was just bloviating or whether these were true threats.

Normally, in situations like this the more rhetoric Iran uses the less likely they are to strike - words are used to mask how weak they are. However, when Iran utilizes such heavy threat and rhetoric it also means that they are activating their proxies in the region.

Iran has a capable army. Iran also has a very serious set of surface to surface missiles. But it is much easier for Iran to turn up the rhetoric and activate their proxies than to launch an attack or a counter attack against Israel.

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IAEA Report
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report is out. There is nothing new in the report, nothing we did not know from the outset. This exact report could have been written fifteen years ago.

For the past 15 years some of us have been warning about Iran's nuclear ambition - but to no avail. Most of the world, including the IAEA, has been blase, uninterested and downright apathetic to Iran's nuclear aspirations.

In many ways the IAEA actually helped Iran cloak and continue their development. The United States served the same role. They were always willing to give Iran another chance. And each time Iran received a new chance, they used it to improve on their technology.

The UN and the US could be considered "useful fools." Using the term "fools" at least posits that their role was not deliberately malicious. Although some say that the IAEA, under the leadership of Mohammed Baradei, was complicit in Iran's nuclear development. It is true that under the leadership the agency deliberately did not publish findings which were damning to Iran.

This IAEA report is based on foreign intel and strongly suggest that Iran is working to develop nuclear technology in order to create weapons. So what else is new?

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No Traction on Big Story
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no explaining why the press did not pick up the story of how US President Obama and French President Sarkozy dissed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It happened last Thursday and the story has only just begun to get traction. It was a web site in France that broke the story and then the Israeli press ran with it. The New York Post covered the story, but it was a small piece. Then the Huffington Post and AOL posted it and Fox News ran it along with an interview with John McCain saying how embarrassing this is for the United States, and that Obama should know better.

When I tweet the incident I was asked for my sources - suggesting that it was all a made up incident, validated by the fact that the White House would not even make a comment about it.

This is yet another example of a very amateurish Middle East POV.

Even if he believes what he said and was not just politely agreeing with Sarkozy, Obama should never say these things. They will only come back to haunt him in the Jewish community. Even if Jewish donor and communal leaders agree with the president's assessment of Netanyahu they will never tell him that or make it public.

The US president owes the Israeli prime minister both a private and public apology. He has put his fundraisers in a very bad position and he has some more serious explaining to do to his Jewish donors and backers.

This is the same mistake that Obama made when speaking of the '67 borders. Certain things are quietly understood, but they are never voiced.

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Obama & Sarkozy Diss Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Beware the open microphone, especially if you are a head of state.

Barack Obama and Nicholas Sarkozy have been caught in a flagrant faux pas.

Following a G-20 press conference, the two men began to talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They thought the conversation was private. But the mic was on and a room full of journalists, from around the world, were privy to a 3-4 minute scathing critique before the mistake was discovered.

As a courtesy, none of the journalists rushed to publish the story.

The essence of what they said goes like this:
Sarkozy - I can't stand him
Obama - You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him every day

The two leaders were there to discuss France's abstention on the question of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Obama was very displeased with the French conciliatory gesture.

Then the conversation veered to Netanyahu. They should have stuck to their official agenda.

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Israel Expects Mass Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli strategists and the military have been considering the next, bad case, scenarios. Teams are training in order to try to prevent them from happening and to combat the possible attacks if they do happen.

The scenario that the army believes is almost certainly on the agenda is the mass kidnapping of a bus - a tourist bus, a school bus, maybe a city bus and then holding the hostages in exchange for prisoners in Israeli jails.

Some strategists believe that this was the motivation and the plan of Hamas terrorists who attacked a tourist bus en route to Eilat this past August. In the end, the terrorists were simply not successful in actualizing their complete plan. They attacked the bus, killed people aboard the bus, but were unable to kidnap the bus.

Two teams are training for this - one in the South of Israel and one in the North.

In the eyes of the military this mass kidnapping is a foregone conclusion.

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Abbas Giving Housing to Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed rumors that the PA would be supplying housing to the prisoners released from Israeli jails in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive for over five year by Hamas.

This admission has serious implications.

The released prisoners were all, in one form or another, terrorists.
Almost the entire PA budget comes from the United States, other Western countries and the United Nations.

These nations and organizations have made it very clear to the Palestinian Authority that no funds can be given, in any way, to terrorist activities.

The money cannot support terrorists or be used as reward for the families of terrorists. The money may not be given before or after acts of terrorism to anyone. No one involved in terror may benefit from the funds given for humanitarian aid.

Giving government-sponsored housing to these terrorist prisoners is in direct violation of the stipulations set down by the donor nations. Where else would Abbas and his government be getting the money?

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Flotilla W/O Aid
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Another flotilla was intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza. The flotilla consisted of two ships, one from Canada and a yacht from Ireland.

27 people, including crew and journalists (one Iranian journalist), were aboard.

The flotilla did not resist but neither did they heed warnings - they continued on their path toward Gaza after being warned away.

The Israeli Navy stopped the ships and towed the vessels and all the people aboard to the port of Ashdod. The participant journalists and crew were all processed by the police and border control. All of the people will be deported.

No weapons were on the ships. No medical or humanitarian aid was on board either. Ostensibly, the ships were claiming to be bringing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

This flotilla embarked on their journey to get publicity - nothing more and nothing less. Unfortunately for them, that has not happened. A few newspapers have written short pieces and there were some pictures, but this flotilla never made the splash the organizers had hoped for.

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PA Nixes Plan for 16 UN Agency Recognition
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 4, 2011

I've been thinking:

The Palestinians have changed strategy. They have decided not to apply for full membership status in all of the 16 United Nations agencies.

This shift is dramatic.

And it has come about because the Palestinians now realize what they have done- how by lobbying for and then receiving full membership status in UNESCO they have alienated and disenfranchised their major donors. The decision by the United States, Canada and even Israel to stop funding the Palestinians has effectively bankrupted the PA.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has stepped in and asked the Palestinian Authority to abort their plan. He said that the decision to become recognized members of the various UN agencies will result in the suffering of millions of Palestinian residents.

Israel is now stopping the transfer of taxes to the PA, taxes which come to about $100 million a month. This will strangle the PA.

The damage Palestinian leadership has done to itself is huge. Millions of Palestinians will starve. Millions will suffer terribly -and unnecessarily.

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Egypt Arrests and then Frees
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the Egyptian court found 73 people guilty of defiling and destroying the Israel Embassy in Cairo.

One might think that this was a significant symbol of justice for the new Egypt. But no - all 73 people were given suspended sentences.
That means that although these Egyptians were found guilty of perpetrating the crime, not one of them has or will be punished.

The gruesome attacks on the Israeli embassy took place just two months ago, on September 9th and September 10th. It was all caught on tape and available for everyone to see on You Tube. You see the aggressive behavior of hundred and hundreds if not thousands of angry Egyptians as they rip apart the building.

And all the while, the Egyptian army and the Egyptian police stood by and watched. This was an attack on one of the basic rules of diplomacy. A foreign embassy and staff are never to be threatened or touched. They are off limits. Those are the rules.

Those rules explain why the 73 were convicted. But the new Egypt does not care much for these rules - and that explains why the sentences were suspended.

The Egyptian authorities are telling their nation that even if you break the international norm, we are behind you.

Once again, welcome to the new Egypt.

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Jihad is Launching Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is Islamic Jihad that is shooting rockets at Israel from Gaza.

Islamic Jihad, with the permission of Hamas.
I understand why Islamic Jihad is shooting at Israel, what I do not understand is why Hamas is permitting it to happen.

Islamic Jihad is trying to make a place for itself, trying to improve its stature and status in the Arab world. Hamas made their name and turned into a serious player as a result of the Gilad Shalit deal. Islamic Jihad wants to do the same.

Islamic Jihad also wants to show the Arab world that they can launch longer, better and more accurate rockets than Hamas - rockets that they got from Iran.

According to intel sources, Islamic Jihad has many more long range rockets than does Hamas. They have rockets with a range of 30 miles and it is those rockets that are hitting the Israeli cities of Beersheba, Ashdod and Asheklon.

When they send the rockets into Israel, Islamic Jihad is testing the range and accuracy of the product they received from Iran.

So why is Hamas permitting this to happen? Because Hamas is unaware of the potential threat from Islamic Jihad.

Hamas is sitting back and enjoying its success ... but Islamic Jihad has thousands of fighters. They are making a big splash - and it might very well cause the fall of Hamas.

If this situation continues, Israel will have no choice but to go in and actually unseat Hamas.

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Libya To Try Ghadaffi Killers
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Libya the National Transition Council, aka the NTC, announced that they will investigate and prosecute the people who executed Col. Moammar Ghadaffi.

I do not believe they will follow through with this announcement. I think that what they are doing is throwing the West a proverbial bone.

The NTC has been hit very hard for having created an atmosphere of vengeance - not justice. during the rise of the opposition and in its aftermath, after Ghadaffi was deposed and in hiding.

The Ghadaffi killing is the most glaring example, but it is just one example of many.

It is clear from the video that Ghadaffi gave himself up. It is clear that he should have been arrested and not killed.

It is clear that that did not happen - and very few Libyans see the injustice or immorality of that act.

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Hamas Launching Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For several weeks Gaza was quiet. No shots were fired from Gaza into Israel.

The quiet has now been shattered.

Hamas had been treading very carefully during the final stages of the Shalit prisoner exchange. They did everything they could to preserve the quiet and make certain that their 1,027 prisoners would be released. And they were.

Even when there was a rocket attack during that period, Hamas proved that they handled the rogue activists and that they were neither Hamas operatives nor were they operating under the orders or auspices of Hamas.

Now that the prisoners are home, long range rockets - even longer than before the period of quiet, are being launched into Israel. Recently launched rockets landed in the port city of Ashdod and alarms have been sounded in the city of Kiryat Malachi.

This is called a serious escalation in rocket attacks.

We must watch and see how Israel responds.

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PA & Lieberman
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 28, 2011

I've Been thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has submitted a letter to the United Nations Security Council complaining about Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister.

The complaint says that Lieberman is threatening the life of PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

How is he threatening him? By saying that Abbas is "an obstacle to peace" and by saying that any leader would be better than Abbas for the peace process.

This is especially funny because not long ago - when the peace negotiation were working and when there was real progress, there were real and significant threats to Abbas' life. Those outright and direct threats, however, were never brought to the Security Council even though the threats were real enough and people were actually arrested for plotting the assassination of the president of the Palestinian Authority.

These are not threats at all, not real and not veiled. Lieberman is simply pointing out that Abbas is either ineffective or nonchalant about peace. Choose one. Neither leads to viable negotiations.

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Israel Says Yes - PA Says Maybe
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet has put together a plan to jump start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Israel officially accepted.

The Palestinians said "maybe."

Saeb Erakat, speaking on behalf of the PA, said that they will come back to the negotiating table only if Israel first stops all building in post '67 areas.

Erakat then said that negotiations must resume on the basis of the pre '67 borders.

Once again, the Palestinians have set pre-conditions to the start of the talks.

Behind the scenes, the United States is furious with the Palestinians.

Israel's far-right, hawkish foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, has never been in favor of negotiating with the Palestinians. So when Liberman began shouting about Abbas' most recent intransigence, Israelis did not take him too seriously.

It seems that Lieberman was correct.

Anyone but Abbas.

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Turks Blame Gov For Inaction
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In the aftermath of the earthquake in Turkey some very interesting issues have emerged.

Two days after the earthquake Turkey has asked Israel for aid - but only in the form of mobile homes.

Nearly 500 Turks are now dead and many more will be discovered. The cold in the Van region is bitter and people are fighting for tents and shelter and fire for warmth.

Turks are questioning the actions of their prime minister and attacking him for the decisions he has been making. There has been little central coordination and aid. AND he has rejected international assistance.

"The prime minister runs for help when it's Palestine or Somalia, sends ships to Palestine, almost goes into war with Israel for the sake of Palestinians, but he doesn't move a muscle when it comes to his own people," said Emrullah , an 18 year-old Turk from Van.

It seems that this is the consensus from the hard hit earthquake region.

The government cares more about the Palestinians than it cares about its own citizens.

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Syrian Ambassador to US Recalled
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrians have recalled their ambassador to the United States.
Officially, he was recalled for "consultations."

The ambassador was recalled at a time when tensions between Syria and the United States continue to rise. For their part, the US State Department has said that there are no plans to recall their ambassador to Syria... Although US Ambassador Ford has left due to threats against his life.

Recalling an ambassador for consultations can be a diplomatic gesture or it can be an internal, very practical move. The latter is, without a doubt, the case here.

Syria needs to improve its standing in the Western world, to strategize and to unify their message.

This was neither a gesture nor a statement about the tensions between the two countries. It was a necessary, practical, move.

I expect that the ambassador will soon be returned to Washington.


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Arabs Don't Pony Up
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ron Prosor, the Israeli Ambassdor to the United Nations, offered some compelling insight yesterday.

Prosor said that Arab countries have abandoned the Palestinian Authority. He explained that the contributions of Arab countries to the Palestinian Authority amount to 20% of the PA's budget.

His point was best illustrated by saying that the entire Arab world's contribution to the Palestinian Authority amounts to about half the price of the Saudi Prince's new private luxury airplane. That is a mind boggling piece of information and insight.

When you crunch the numbers you discover that while many countries pledge monetary support to the Palestinians, the few countries that actually come through on their pledges and dole out cash and dole it out on time - are the Western democracies.

And that explains why a Congressional threat to withhold aid to the Palestinians is so powerful a threat.

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Kill or Try Ghadaffi
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ghadaffi is dead - killed, after he surrendered.

The rules of war as well as the rules of Islam require that the Libyan thug him be taken prisoner. But that is not what happened.

He was killed - murdered in cold blood.

Was this the best outcome?
Was it best to drag him, beat him and kill him or should he have been arrested and tried?

Any established democracy would respond by saying bring the tyrant to trial - but Libya was not and still is not a democracy.

Had Ghadaffi been brought to trial his trial could have been an educational tool and a historical catharsis for a country that suffered under a brutal tyrant. A public trial would have inscribed the many atrocities perpetrated by Muammar Ghadaffi on the public record.

But these Libyans were not interested in history. These Libyans were out for revenge. And that is just what they got.

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Kuntar Says Kidnap More Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Samir Kuntar was quoted all over the Arabic press saying that kidnapping Shalit was a success and that more Israelis must be kidnapped.

Kuntar was himself exchanged in 2008 as part of the deal between Israel and Hezbollah that returned the dead bodies of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Kuntar was found guilty and admitted to a brutal terror attack that killed five people in 1979. The attack included the murder of four year old baby Einat Haran.

Since his release form Israel Kuntar has proclaimed the need to continue attacking and kidnapping Israelis and exploit them as leverage to gain freedom for prisoners in Israeli jails.

He is not alone. Many voices in the Arab world are calling for more kidnappings. Hamas is the first among them.

As a result of this exchange Hamas has catapulted itself way over Abbas and the Palestinian Authority in the eyes of the Arabic world.

We will see if that lasts.

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Free Terroroists tells Kids to Kill
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian interview with Gilad Shalit was a propaganda piece. It was designed by Egypt to position themselves as central to the entire exchange. And, by extension once again, to reposition them as leaders in the Arab world.

The interviewer, Shahira Amin, is unyielding in her defense of the interview. She has said that she did not want to be a propaganda tool. She has bolstered her defense by saying that she resigned from state TV during the riots against Mubarak so as not to be part of the propaganda.

There is a serious flaw in the entire episode. Putting the questions asked of Gilad Shalit aside, putting his health aside, the flaw lies with the interview itself.

Conducting an interview, any interview, went against the agreement that Egypt signed. To complicate the issue even further, Amin claims Hamas was not involved in her interview --- but they were and the pictures prove it. Why lie?

We all know that Shalit was brought into the room by armed Hamas men. In the room itself there were only Egyptian intelligence people. They did not intervene, and neither did the Hamas men. I say this with complete authority and responsibility

http://honestreporting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/shalithamasinterview.jpg

The translator/minder was not from Hamas as has been claimed, but behind Gilad Shalit in the still picture is a Hamas man in a mask with a camera. Shahira Amin hopes that this interview will be the big break in her career and take her international. But she interviewed a captive with his captors in the room - and then lied about it.

Say what she wants, that is propaganda, not journalism.

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Shalit Miracle
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Gilad Shalit is alive - and that is a miracle. There was no proof of life until he walked, on his own two legs, out of the nightmare he has endured for the past five years and four months and into freedom.

For someone who has endured these long years of Hamas sponsored confinement - in solitude, in a dark closet - like hole that allowed for no sun, with almost no human interaction, he has been declared in reasonably good condition. Sunken eyes, ashen complexion, weak and extremely thin - but able to see, hear, speak and respond.

Now - as so many people are doing, compare Gilad Shalit's condition to that of the prisoners released from Israeli prisons.

The 280 Palestinians already released by Israel came out healthy, strong and feeling secure. They were given three squares a day and fresh air and sunlight. They had access to doctors and regular contact with their family. They had their day in court and then were convicted.

Ethics, morality and the Geneva Convention separate the world inhabited by Gilad Shalit and the world inhabited by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

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Exchange Took Place
By Micah Halpern

October 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The exchange has happened.

1 Israeli for 1027 Palestinian prisoners.

The numbers are numbing.

The lesson to be learned is crucial.

Israel made a painful and very costly deal for the life of a single citizen. The cost of letting convicted terrorists go free is enormous. Freeing even one of them makes life more dangerous for Israelis. Multiply that 1027 times.

Israelis are torn about the deal, the families of terror victims are up-in-arms.

Gazans are celebrating.

What will happen next?

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Shalit Exchange -- Hard Choice
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The deal is supposed to go through tomorrow.
I am referring to the prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas, the deal that was negotiated by Egypt and Germany.

There are many hiccups still to come and many that have already come over the past 24 hours. The deal may still breakdown. Debates and discussions and demonstrations have swelled as the time nears.

Whatever happens, it should be clearly understood that this is an extremely painful adventure, an agonizing exchange of prisoners, for Israelis.

Rabbis and ethicists line up on both sides. One side says that the life of Gilad Shalit is more important than the punishment of prisoners convicted of murder. Another side asks how is Shalit's blood redder than the blood of any other victim killed or maimed by the terrorists being released. Others say this is a clear victory for the terrorists who will have achieved their intended goal in kidnapping a soldier and holding him hostage in exchange for prisoners held in Israeli jails.

There is no simple answer.

If the release does go through one family's nightmare will end - but nothing else will change. Nothing at all.

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Wall St Protesters' AntiSemitism
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tempers are rising in the "Occupy Wall Street Campaign."

Not just because the number of arrests have increased but because the tone has become very hateful.

I just finished watching a series of interviews with protesters and here are 2 clips from the Daily Caller

http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/07/anti-semitism-at-occupy-wall-street/

The clips depict virulent anti-Semitic feelings by the protesters.

One speaker could best be described as wild and crazed while the second is more stayed and rational in his presentation. Both are, frighteningly, filled with the echoes of medieval hatred of Jews.

Not, I repeat, not anti-Israel or anti-Zionist ideology... just outright anti-Semitism.

The film clips are edited by the Emergency Committee for Israel and are up on their front page. The Committee's board is composed of neo- con William Kristal and religious conservative leader Gary Bauer.

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Clinton Says Palestinian State Lost Momentum
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton has told Reuters that the plan for full Palestinian membership in the UN and a declaration of Statehood is "going nowhere."

The Secretary of State said that many countries are telling the Palestinians that the formal letter presented to the Secretary General of the United Nations has not advanced their goals. She recounted that those countries are saying that dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

It appears that the momentum has swung away from the Palestinians in the Security Council. No doubt, the threat of a US veto as well as the recent vetoes by Russia and China on Syrian sanctions has left the Palestinian question quite simply - hanging.

Unlike in the General Assembly, member states of the Security Council are not likely to push a unilateral declaration knowing that in the end, it will result in nothing more than a large waste of their time in the Security Council.


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Shalit Deal
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In a vote of 26 for and 3 against, Israel's cabinet approved the deal with Hamas to free Gilad Shalit. Hamas has also agreed to the deal. That is no small accomplishment.

Shalit, an Israeli with dual French citizenship was kidnapped and has been held by Hamas for nearly five and half years. He is being exchanged for 1,027 prisoners.

Anything can happen - but it looks like the deal will proceed in stages.

The head of Israel's internal clandestine agency, the Shin Bet, said that 90% of the deal was agreed upon three years ago. The only real question was which prisoners would stay and which could leave their Israeli prisons.

Some of the people on the list to be freed in exchange for Shalit include terrorists involved in vicious attacks. The names of Marwan Barghouti and the terrorist responsible for the kidnapping and death of another Israeli soldier, Nachshon Wachsman, have been on and off the list too many times to count. Until all the prisoners are released, we will not know their fate.

These debates are never easy. Getting Gilad Shalit back home while he is still alive is a priority. But each and every one of the 1,027 people who stand to be released is responsible for horrific attacks against Israelis.

Yesterday Halid Mashaal, the head of Hamas, praised the deal and congratulated the squad that kidnapped Shalit. He said it was a successful operation that will lead to the release of over 1,000 prisoners.

That is the Palestinian point of view and we must never lose sight of that mindset.

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Whipping in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Peyman Aref is a student at Tehran University.
Aref was recently released from an Iranian prison. He was in prison after being found guilty of anti-government political activity.

Aref was lashed 74 times when he was released. It was for a completely different crime. That crime was the crime of insulting President Ahmadinejad.

Aref had written a letter to the president and did not begin in the customary manner by writing "Salaam," which means "peace upon you."

Because he did not use the proper greeting or salutation he was given 74 lashes - with a whip.

Crime and punishment in Iran are incomprehensible to the Western mind.

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Christians Killed in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night was deadly for Christians in Egypt. Nineteen Christians were killed and well over a hundred hospitalized from injuries caused by plain clothes and riot police.

It began when Christians gathered and marched to sit in at the
National TV building in Cairo. They were protesting the terrible burning and riots against churches in Aswan, located in southern Egypt. The riots started even though local Christian leaders agreed to take down the crosses and bells from the church, Christian symbol that had incensed Muslims in the area.

What began as a peaceful protest turned violent when locals threw rocks and shot pellets at the Christian marchers. Cars were torched and people were arrested. The night ended with a curfew instituted for all of Cairo.

Christians compose about 10% of the Egyptian population -- 8 million out of 80 million people.

Nerves are very raw right now in Egypt. At this point any little incident can set off a large explosion.

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Anti Semitic Cartoons
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a huge increase in anti-Semitic, almost medieval, depictions of Jews and Israel in the Arabic press. This is particularly the case with editorial cartoons.

Since the UN hosted the General Assembly these cartoons have become so ugly that some of them actually parallel the infamous Nazi newspaper Der Sturmer which unabashedly depicted Jews as evil beings.
ADL ( the Anti-Defamation League) collected a significant set of the cartoons and posted them online late last week. I have pasted a link to their collection.

What is so telling is that almost all the cartoons depict Israel controlling the United States through the use of the veto they cast in the Security Council. Many smack of the conspiracy theory that says Jews control the world.

http://www.adl.org/anti_semitism_arab/cartoons-in-arab-press-demonize.asp

Remember these cartoons are current, they are not part of a historical archive, they were published just a short few days and weeks ago.

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Iran Sits In Israel Seat
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was an amazing picture on the Ynet site. It showed the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency sitting in the Israel chair.

In the photo the Iranian ambassador is joined by two aides and they are all speaking to the Irish ambassador.

CLICK ON THE GREEN:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4132525,00.html

Under normal circumstances this would not be an issue. It is here because Iranian policy is not even to mention the name of Israel no less be caught in a picture sitting in a seat with the sign in front of you reading "Israel" which Iran refers to only as the "Zionist entity."

Diplomats have been recalled, fired and publically humiliated for far less. Iranian diplomats have been recalled for being in a room with Israelis where they were photographed in the same picture or broadcast together. The policy of Iran is that there is to be neither informal nor formal interaction and no appearance of such interaction.

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Abbas Turns Up Propaganda
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the European Parliament yesterday. The speech was extremely problematic.

Abbas spoke about the Palestinian spring. He explained that the Palestinians must cast off the oppressive Israeli leadership and control over their own lives.

What Abbas did was to create a metaphor which is totally inappropriate. The force preventing Palestinian statehood is the lack of negotiations, not Israel's oppressive tactics.

The Palestinian president then compared the 6000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel cells to Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier being held by Hamas. That was just plain offensive.

Palestinian prisoners in Israel have beds, heat and air conditioning. They get 3 square meals a day and have access to doctors, calling time to speak to family, visits with family and even conjugal visit.

Gilad Shalit is held in a subterranean cave. He has not seen light and there has been no interaction with anyone including Red Cross since his abduction on June 25, 2006. His parents have no idea if he is even alive.

The rhetoric and the untruths, the use of metaphor and similes is just irresponsible. It is propaganda. If I were being irresponsible, I would say that Goebels would be proud.

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Biden Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Vice President Joe Biden hosted an annual event at the vice president's residence in honor of Rosh Hashannah, the Jewish New Year.

Biden said that "Israel is America's closest, dearest, and most morally-based friend."

Even though I would agree in many ways with the sentiment expressed by the vice president, this is just another in a series of "Biden-isms."

There are several other countries in the world that would like to claim those titles he bestowed upon Israel.

The vice president got it backwards. He should have said: "Israel and America are the closest and the dearest of friends. They are bound by a mutual sense of values and morals."
Adding the words "and the" in place of "is" makes all the difference in the world.

These speeches are matter of public record. The corrected form would not diminish the friendship between the United States and Israel. Rather, it speaks of their bond from a more mature and realistic point of view - a POV the VP should have.

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Congress Stops $200 mill to Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress has frozen $200 million promised as aid to the Palestinians.

Congress is holding the feet of the Palestinians to the fire. By stopping the funding Congress is saying that the Palestinians must embrace negotiations without preconditions with Israel in order to continue getting money from the United States.

The Obama administration is lobbying Congress to keep the money flowing. The White House thinks that stopping aid will do irrevocable damage to the Palestinian infrastructure.

The Palestinians, for their part, are convinced that they will continue to get the US aid.

Popular thought is that the difference in the funding would be picked up by petrol rich Arab countries. That is not clear or guaranteed.

This year alone the United States is scheduled to give $900 million to the Palestinians and only a fraction of that money will be picked up by the Saudis and other Arab countries.

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Biden & The Jews
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Vice President Biden was quoted in Saturday's New York Times as having spoken to 15 rabbis. The subject was Jonathan Pollard.

Biden told the group that President Obama was considering clemency for the convicted spy, sentenced to life in prison in 1987.

Biden reported that he advised Obama --- using the term "over my dead body" - not to allow Pollard to get out before his sentence is up.

Considering that Biden was sent by the White House to smooth over issues with the Jewish community and to pave the road for campaign funds to come rolling in, this was an unfortunate admission. .

The Pollard question is a very sensitive for the Jewish community. It has been on the table during the tenure of several presidents. The best method of dealing with the issue is to confront it directly. Biden took it to the extreme.

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Iran's New Missile
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran continues its rhetorical attack against the West.
The Iranians are making announcements and releasing proclamations designed to shake and rattle the West. Earlier this week they announced that they would be sending Iranian naval forces to the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Then Iran announced that they were transitioning into mass production of a cruise style missile - a land-to-sea, short range, highly sophisticated weapon which will bolster their defense.

Even more important than its capability is that the new weapon called the "Ghader" or the "Capable One" in Parsi is very easy to operate and will be sold to anyone with enough cash.
These are obviously just verbal games - but they are messages that should be properly understood and placed in the proper context. Then we watch patiently and re-evaluate continually.

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US Says No Preconditions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it first. Then United States Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said it again.

They said there should be no preconditions to talks between the Palestinians and Israelis.

They said the United States does not think that a settlement freeze must be in place before talks can begin.
This was the mistake that President Obama made after taking office in January 2009.

Obama made it clear that the expected a cessation of building before talks would begin. That, in turn, gave Palestinian leadership the license they were searching for to not participate. Even after a 9 month and 1 week freeze out of a total of 10 months, the Palestinians only came back to the negotiation table to discuss extending the building freeze.

This all happened exactly. Not much has happened since.

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Iran's Bold Statement
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian navy is quoted in a report in today's IRNA (the Iranian National News Agency) saying that Iran was thinking of deploying navy ships close to the shores of the United States.

Navy Chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari is quoted as saying: "Like the arrogant powers that are present near our marine borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to American marine borders."

The head of the Iranian navy is suggesting that Iranian naval boats strike up a post on the Atlantic seaboard.
Interestingly, the US ships in the Straits of Hormuz are often actually in Iranian maritime waters.

Should the Iranians put this plan into action it would result in a serious increase in already tense relations. It would not be an act of war - provided the Iranian naval ship remained outside the boundaries and provided Iran did not harass and interfere with trade.

But this would certainly be a very aggressive move by Iran.

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Palestinians Banking on US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is essential to lay out the threat that the US President and Congress have put to the Palestinians.

If the Palestinians pursue a unilateral declaration of statehood they will lose US funding. The Palestinians do not want to lose US funding, so that means that they must return to face to face negotiations with the Israelis.

Only by returning to the table and talking with the Israelis will the Palestinians get their nearly $1 billion in aid from the United States.

The Saudis have promised to pick up the slack - but they said that they will donate only $200 million which falls far short of what the Palestinians need.

The Palestinians are convinced that the US will not follow through with their threat to divest. They are convinced that the US will not let them starve or permit their infrastructure to crumble. The Palestinians are betting that the United States will help despite their threats not to give.

The Palestinians may be correct - but it is highly doubtful.

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Turkey -Iran Joint Military Op
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will be joining Iran in a military operation against the Kurds.

This is not just the Turks and Iran sharing information.

This is not a drill, this is not an exercise.

This is a real military operation to attack the Kurds.

Turkey and Iran see the Kurds as a mutual enemy.

This is another very blatant example of how Turkey has turned its back on the West.

Turkey is in possession of some of the most modern, up-to-date weapons systems which Iran will now have access to.

This is earth shattering.

The potential for destruction is enormous.

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Abbas Rejects Quartet's Proposal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas returned home to Ramallah today. Thousands of Palestinians crowded together to cheer him on for taking a stand and moving them toward statehood.

What was not heavily covered in the Arabic press was that while on the plane, just as he departed New York, Abbas rejected the proposal put forth by the Quartet to jumpstart talks with Israel.

Abbas outright rejected the Quartet's plan. I have not seen the plan itself, only partial bits and pieces that have been leaked - but from that and from previous plans and historical precedent, I can pretty much surmise what is in the Quartet proposal.

Abbas set down two pre-conditions for talks. Negotiations will not begin until all Israeli settlement building stops and until it is agreed that pre 1967 borders will be the borders.

Last year at this time there was a settlement freeze. Israel gave the Palestinians ten months with absolutely no settlement construction. And after nine months and one week and no talks, the Palestinians woke up and said they want an extension of the freeze.

At that point the Palestinian objective became crystal clear. The Palestinians wanted a settlement freeze - not negotiations. For the United States and for Israel the freeze was a tool - not a goal. For the Palestinians the settlement freeze was the goal.

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New Mideast Ideas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions have peaked in the United Nations. Now we can begin to understand what has been happening these past few days.

It all climaxed midday on Friday when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas delivered his speech. When he reached the rostrum, Abbas was welcomed with a loud ovation. When he lifted a hard copy of the proposal for Palestinian membership the applause grew louder. There was energy in the room, almost every speaker before him had mentioned Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyau, a gifted orator, did as fine a job as anyone could have done - but he was not even in the competition.

The looming problem is how to move ahead. Each side now has some serious preconditions.

The Quartet, composed of the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, which has been deadlocked on this issue for a year, finally hammered out some suggestions to advance the face to face negotiations. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon expressed hope that the parties would heed their suggestions.

But seriously - if the UN, EU, US and Russia could not come to agreement for a year and they are objective parties, how difficult do you think it will be for the Israelis and the Palestinians.

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Abbas Has Made Up His Mind
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made up his mind. After reading yesterday's interview with the Palestinian press organization MAAN, there can be no doubt that the Palestinians will submit a proposal to the UN Secretary General requesting full membership in the United Nations today.

It is a proposal that will be debated by the Security Council.

US President Obama made it clear that the United States will use its veto to squash the proposal. Ambassador Susan Rice said yesterday that she expects that the debate may begin as early as next week.
It is not certain, however, that the Palestinians have the 9 votes in the Security Council to get to the point that the US will need to use its veto.

Yesterday almost every speaker at the GA said that the Palestinians deserve a state. Almost representative also spoke about the need for Israel to have secure borders and the need to restart direct negotiations.

The purpose of submitting this proposal - which will fail, is contrary to our logic. Western thought would dictate that a failed proposal will hurt rather than benefit the Palestinians ... but in the Middle East, leaders do not always do what is beneficial for their people.

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Obama Gives Pro Israel Speech
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

United States President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly yesterday.

The response was predictable. The Israelis loved the speech, the Palestinians did not.

The Israeli interpretation of the Obama speech is that the president of the United States really understands the issues they confront and that he outlined the US perspective, which is in tandem with the Israeli perspective.

The Palestinians saw it as a "pro Israel speech." Across the board
every response that came from Palestinian leadership was that the Obama speech was pro-Israel and that it did not at all connect to the Palestinian crisis.

Obama said that the way forward is through direct talks and negotiations. He said that votes do not create a state.

Who knows where we are going now. Abbas is scheduled to speak on Friday - you can bet that after hearing Obama speak, the Palestinians are sitting down to rework and significantly alter the Abbas speech.

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UN Showdown
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The crunch is on at the UN. The Palestinians are pushing very hard for full membership.

They have 2 hurdles to pass, the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In the Security Council the PA needs 9 votes, no vetoes.

In the General Assembly the PA needs 128 votes.
Gabon, Bosnia and Nigeria are the key to the Security Council vote. Gabon has said that they will not say anything about their intention until Friday's vote - but they will probably either abstain or vote a "no vote." Nigeria has said they will abstain. Bosnia is still up in the air.

If all this happens, the United States will not have to use their veto - the Palestinian proposal will only have gotten 6 or 7votes.
On the other hand, if everyone votes "yes" then the PA will have hit the threshold and the Unites States will have no choice but to use their veto.

Friday is the day of reckoning.

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Turkish FM Walks Out on Israeli
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu walked out of a UN conference on terror just as Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon stood up to speak.

This was not the first time such an insult occurred. It has become commonplace since last year's flotilla.

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are worsening.

Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Ahmet Davutoglu. The meeting lasted a full hour. According to sources a significant amount of time was dedicated to Clinton urging Turkey to mend fences with Israel.

The upshot of Clinton's comments was that at this time the region does not need any more conflict.

The argument was hardly convincing for the Turks.

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Hamas Against UN Bid
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Question: Who is really against the proposal for Palestinian statehood?
Answer: Hamas.

The prime minister of Hamas, Ismail Haniyah, has blasted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas because Abbas never even asked for the Hamas point of view regarding statehood.

What is the Hamas point of view? Hamas rejects the idea. And because Hamas was elected in a plurality in the last election, that should be reason enough for the UN to reject the PA proposal.

The Palestinian Authority is presenting itself as "the sole representatives of the Palestinian people" and that is truly not the case. The voice of Haniyah and the Palestinians of Gaza is not being heard.

One must realize, of course, that the reason Hamas rejects statehood is because they know full well that a declaration of Palestinian statehood by the United Nations explicitly implies recognition of Israel. They know that a State of Palestine will be defined by the UN as a state next to the Jewish State of Israel.

That reality cannot be justified by Hamas. It would mean the end of their vision. And their vision, their mission, is vanquishing all of Israel and transforming everything into a Palestinian state. Hamas cannot let that happen.

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UN: A Big Week
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are going for broke. They want to propose statehood in both the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly.

The Palestinians want full membership in the UN.

As of now the PLO is an organization and with UN observer status. The proposal or proposals is for the Palestinian State. If the Palestinians are denied statehood in the Security Council they can change their status in the General Assembly to that of state observer, a status which, while it may be shy of total membership, is still a vast improvement over their current status.

The next few days at the United Nations will a roller coaster. They will be filled with misleads, empty promises threats and more.

As for the ultimate outcome - there are too many variables, too many egos and too many secret conversations and back corridor proposals still taking place to predict.

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Abbas & the UN
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Abbas gave a speech yesterday explaining that he was bringing the proposal for Palestinian statehood to the UN Security Council. He proclaimed that he would demand the legitimate right of the Palestinians people.

Abbas said: "We are the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and we intend to keep going until we secure full independence."

Hamas took exception to the Abbas speech especially the line about being "the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."

Hamas wants to remind people that they - Hamas, not the PA - won the plurality in the last election and that they - Hamas - control Gaza and are establishing more and more footholds in the West Bank.

Abbas is keeping his options open. He is clearly see-sawing back and forth. Does he go to the Security Council where he faces certain defeat or to the GA for overwhelming support or should he do both.

Now there is also talk of a softened draft proposal for Palestinian statehood. This soft proposal would be a theoretical acceptance of the idea of Palestinian statehood with an understanding that the details - borders, Jerusalem, refugees, will be handled later.

That softened proposal will be acceptable across the board. It will make all the players happy. Some of the observers, however, might be angered.

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Hamas is Against UN Bid for State
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations General Assembly 2011 has begun. Many issues await resolution. The one issue that has drawn the lion's share of attention is the call for recognition of a Palestinian state.

One Palestinian group is dead set against the proposal --- Hamas. They call the UN bid a "cosmetic move that will not lead to any results."

There are several reasons why Hamas is against the UN resolution:

# 1 Establishing a Palestinian state de-facto recognizes that Israel exists next to it, even if the borders unclear and to be determined

# 2: The Palestinian Authority never even consulted with Hamas before going public with the idea of approaching the UN

# 3: The original idea for proposing statehood in the UN came from Prime Minister Salem Fayyad who was not even elected to office but was appointed to fill what should have been the Hamas post of PM

Hamas is not in the business of accommodating on any of these issues -especially not on recognizing Israel or accepting Fayyad. These issues have prevented Hamas and the PA from coming to a power-share agreement. In May they signed a unity pact but have been stymied since.

This UN bid is just another example of the friction, tension, hostility and downright distrust that exists between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

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Turkish Ships to Escort Flotillas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday, September 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has announced that the Turkish navy will escort any future Turkish aid flotillas en route to Gaza.

This decision is a direct by product of the escalating tensions between Turkey and Israel - tensions that have been building to a crescendo as a result of the UN Palmer Report.

An action of this type would be an act of war --- an armed, foreign ship breaking a sea blockade. A not just any blockade, a blockade that the UN Palmer Report said was justified and legal.

I am not convinced that it will come to this, but the rhetoric is ratcheting up very high.

Very sharp words are coming out of Ankara.

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Hezbollah Might Move to Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Zahar, one of the central leaders of Hamas, was recently quoted as saying that Hamas is considering moving their headquarters from Damascus, Syria to Cairo, Egypt.

This is hugely significant both in thought and in action.

In Damascus, under the eye of President Bashar Assad, Hamas had free reign to do as they wished - including unleashing terror, coordinating with Hezbollah and with Iran and engaging with terrorist cells across the world.

Hamas used Damascus as a base of operations because in Damascus they were safe from the international community and in Syria they had a home which identified and supported their vision.

Right now Syria is preoccupied with other issues. Freedom of movement has been curtailed and there have been several massacres of Palestinians in Syria. If they do make the move to Cairo, Hamas will be signifying that they feel safe with the Egyptians and that they are secure in the knowledge that their host will support their visions and invest in their goals.

That would be a significant shift for Egypt ... even for the new Egypt.

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Israel's Best Response to Turkey is Silence
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Given the tremendous tensions and rhetoric that have emerged over the past few weeks between Turkey and Israel it is remarkable that Israel has been so quiet.

It all kicked into gear after the publication of the UN Palmer Report which laid blame for the flotilla on both sides and also said that Israel's sea blockade of Gaza was legal and justified.

Turkey has been on a tirade - stomping, fomenting, fuming and snorting. They have been aggressive and rattling their sabers.

Israel, meanwhile, has been impressively silent. And by being silent Israel has removed the need to engage in battle with Turkey - no PR battle, no battle of rhetoric and not even a battle of diplomacy.

Erdogan, the Turkish leader, is starting to look silly. He is spouting extremist and pretty foolish ideas. Rather than helping his cause, the leader of Turkey is taking his country down a few notches in the eyes of the Western world.

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10th Anniversary of 9-11
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The expression "a credible and unconfirmed threat" needs to be explained and put into proper context.

A "credible and unconfirmed threat" like the threat that was brought to the attention of the public about NYC and Washington DC just prior to the 10th anniversary of 9-11, means that there is specific intelligence that identifies an area and that a plot has emerged.

The people who received the intelligence are concerned that the report is not simply a plan, but that the plan is at the level of action. In this case the three men behind the plan are already in the US.

An "unconfirmed threat" means that there is information from one very reliable intelligence source --- but only one source.

The 10th anniversary of 9-11 threat is real. The plan seems real. The dates make sense. Much of the information actually comes from the computer that belonged to Osama bin Laden.

The US must react and must protect itself. Protection was already stepped up because of the anniversary. Now the authorities are not only on very high alert, they have a direction.

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PA Begins UN Lobby
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have officially begun the process of declaring Statehood in the United Nations and of becoming a full member state.
A formal letter has been sent by the PA to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.

In the letter they explain that their Declaration of Palestinian Statehood is an issue of human rights and self determination. They explain that this is not a question of foreign affairs or foreign relationships with the United States or with any other country. It is a question of relieving the Palestinian people's suffering.

The Palestinians are framing the issue in the context of human rights and have asked the Secretary General for support in helping to move the process along.

The problem is that the Declaration will not have a legal impact. It will be voted on by the General Assembly. The Palestinians believe that they will get 140 countries to vote in support of their Statehood making it an overwhelming majority of member support.
There is no question that this proposal will not be approved by the Security Council.

The only way for the Palestinian Authority to become a full member of the United Nations is to first have the proposal passed in the Security Council and then bring it to the General Assembly.

This vote will not only pass in the General Assembly but it will also alienate Israel and the United States as well as most other Western nations - all the countries who reject the linkage between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

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Turkey - More About Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan blasted Israel again yesterday. He said that Israel was not honoring their military contracts with Turkey.

Hold it ... didn't Turkey cancel all military contracts with Israel?
Evidently Erdogan is upset that Israel has in their possession 10 Heron drones which they originally sold and leased to Turkey. A service contract was included with the drones. As it happens, the drones are under service in Israel right now. And Israel is not returning them.

These drones are part of the secret weapon arsenal that Turkey keeps in order to patrol and use against the Kurds in the north and in Iraq when they threaten Turkey in their battle for independence.

Should the drones be returned to Turkey? That is an interesting international legal question.

It seems clear that the leased drones need not be returned. There is a big risk of not getting them back. The remaining drones should also remain in Israel. True, they are the property of Turkey - but at the present time there is no military agreement to facilitate the return of this very highly sensitive spy equipment.

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Disunity Among Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For years I have been explaining how the Palestinians are not united, explaining that they are perpetually at one another's throat constantly.

Here is another example of Palestinian disunity:

On August 1st both Hamas, who control Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, who control the West Bank, agreed to change their clocks to Daylight Savings Time. The change cut an hour off the long hot days of Ramadan when so many Muslims fast for the entire month.

On August 30th, at the end of Ramadan, the PA and the West Bank returned to Summer Time. Hamas in Gaza remained on DLS.

Here's the hitch: Palestinian Authority institutions in Gaza which include some universities and almost every bank in Gaza, keep West Bank time.

There is so little unity among the Palestinians that they cannot even agree on what time it is.

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China Ticks Off Libya
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday China admitted that, in July, they met with representatives of Muammar Ghadaffi to talk about supplying weapons to help Ghadaffi defeat the opposition.

The Chinese insist that that meeting did not result in weapons being transferred to Libya in order to aid Ghadaffi.

Opposition forces in Libya are livid. They know that weapons from China were sent to Algeria and from there made their way into Libya to supply and aid the strongman as he strangled Libya.

This public announcement by China will have a serious impact on diplomatic relations between the New Transitional Council, which is the new leadership of Libya, and China. The new government in Libya has said that they will not deal with China because of this weapons deal.

Get ready for much more vindictive diplomacy coming out of Libya ... Russia will probably be the next country to feel the wrath of the new Libya.

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Turkey & Egypt Make New Friendship
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel are crumbling and in crisis and diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt are on the upswing.

Relations between Egypt and Israel and Israel and Turkey are on the ropes. And then yesterday Turkey and Egypt set the groundwork for a strategic agreement. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will visit Egypt on September 12th. It is even rumored that Erdogan will visit Gaza while in the region.

These moves are extremely telling.
On the one hand: Israel is being further and further isolated and the countries that are isolating her are becoming closer and closer.

On the other hand: The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued an announcement saying that Egypt had no intention of following Turkey's lead and downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel. It said that their situation with Israel is very different from the Turkish situation with Israel.

If this was a kid's game, it would be called seesaw. But this is not a game.

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Apology V Regret
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt. The Palmer Report, the UN report about the flotilla, has brought about a diplomatic crisis.

Turkey has downgraded their ambassadorial status with Israel to that of Second Secretary. That means that the Turkish government has only an extremely low level diplomat handling affairs in Tel Aviv.

The Palmer Report placed serious blame on the organization that coordinated the flotilla and it also said that Israel was justified, but excessive, in defending itself. The Report recommended that Israel express appropriate regret to Turkey. Turkey, however, is not about to accept regrets, Turkey is demanding an apology.

From the philosophical and diplomatic points of view "regret" and "apology" are not synonyms. And believe me, both Turkey and Israel understand the nuance.

Regret is when you are not happy with the results. Regret is when the results may have been unintended, but the action that created the results was justified.

Apology means the entire episode was unfortunate and undesired. Apology means that any given act and the results of that act should have been avoided.

Obviously, Israel believes, as does the UN Palmer Report, that boarding the flotilla was justified and that boarding falls under the rubric of defending their borders.

Obviously, as well, Turkey disagrees.

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Palmer Report
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Palmer Report was made public yesterday. The report was very critical of Turkey and of the Flotilla organizers, calling them totally irresponsible. It was also duly critical of Israel.

After reading all 105 pages, I can safely say that although I disagree with several of the points within the Palmer Report, the report was honest and even handed.

The report reads: "the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade."

"Israel's decision to board the vessels with such substantial force at a great distance from the blockade zone and with no final warning immediately prior to the boarding was excessive and unreasonable."

"This included physical mistreatment, harassment and intimidation, unjustified confiscation of belongings and the denial of timely consular assistance."

And then the report advises that Israel should pay and express regret.

"An appropriate statement of regret should be made by Israel in respect of the incident in light of its consequences."

"Israel should offer payment for the benefit of the deceased and injured victims and their families, to be administered by the two governments through a joint trust fund of a sufficient amount to be decided by them."

Both the Israeli and Turkish representative were given a one page limit on which to respond.

Mr J. Ciechanover, the Israeli on the committee, disagreed with several findings. The Turkish representative, Mr S. O. Sanberk, was far more direct. He wrote : "I reject and dissociate myself from the relevant parts and paragraphs of the report, as reflected in paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii of the findings contained in the summary of the report and paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii, viii and ix of the recommendations contained in the same text."

The Palmer Report offers suggestions on how to progress from here. They recommend a committee to help move things along.

Interestingly Israel has already offered regrets ... Turkey wants a full blown apology.

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Egypt Candidate Says Army is Making Mistakes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohammed Al Baradei gave an interview to the Egyptian newspaper al Sharouk.

Baradei expressed anger with the current military rulers for not permitting international observers to monitor the upcoming elections.
Baradei is the former head of the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog.

He understands the importance of external supervision. He knows well that without international monitors this election will be a farce.

In the interview Baradei explains that the world has already stopped coming to Egypt - tourism has dropped totally and investors have all run away. A canned election will not convince the investors or the tourists to return.

What Baradei says makes perfect sense, but no one is willing to listen.

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Muslims in The US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Pew Research Center just came out with a study about Muslims in American. The survey is geared to coincide with 9-11 commemorations.

The objective of the study was to find out how Muslims living in the United States view America. As can be expected, some of the answers were predictable and some were surprising.

1000 US Muslims were called at their homes. This sampling represents the 2.75 million Muslims living in America of whom 1.8 million are adults and 300,000 are converts to Islam.

56% are pleased with the direction the United States has taken
76% are pleased with President Obama's performance
80% are satisfied with their lives in America
70% said they cooperate with law enforcement on an appropriate level
70% had an unfavorable view of al Qaeda.
90% voted as Democrats in 2008

Not surprising is that this study tells us that Muslims in the United States are not only comfortable here, they are elated to be in a democracy like the US.

As a rule Muslims in America are neither extremist nor do they support extremist movements - quite the opposite, they assist law enforcement in rooting out undesirable, extremist, Muslims.

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Libya Arming Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Nile TV, national Egyptian television, is reporting that the Egyptian army intercepted a large transport of weapons on their border with Libya.

The weapons were coming from Libya, across the Egyptian border, through Egypt, into Gaza and from there straight into the hands of Hamas terrorists. The situation is not new. Libyan tribes have become the major supplier of weapons to Gaza.

The 140 tribes of Libya get their weapons from NATO and from the United States. That means US tax dollars and weapons are being sold to Hamas, the arms terrorists of Gaza .In July Israel told the United States that this was happening - but the information fell on deaf ears.

One thing should be perfectly clear: the force that ousted Ghadaffi is not friendly.

Now there is not only verbal confirmation but also televised news footage confirmation. Perhaps now the United States will take off their rose colored glasses and respond appropriately.

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Iran's New Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is always developing new weapons. The Iranians are always announcing new and improved items for their arsenal.

Because of their constant announcements and celebrations it is not always clear what is true and what is bluster. Iran is known to have fabricated military information in the past. It is only after Iran tests their new equipment and actually begins to use their new equipment that we can believe the announcements.

Iran recently displayed and tested a new cruise missile. The name of the missile is Ghader or Capable. It has a range of 124 miles and can destroy warships. This missile is lighter than it older predecessor and it can fly with much more accuracy and maneuverability than its predecessor.

Until now the Iranians had have many different missiles for middle and short range targets. The Ghader will add to the depth and power of their weapon cache and their weapon sales.

We all know that when push comes to shove, the real purpose behind Iranian military development is to make huge profits on the sales of their weapons.

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No Recall-Egypt Keep Amb in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Despite all the press - internet, radio, TV and traditional print media filled with screaming headlines that Egypt was pulling their ambassador from Israel, the Egyptians cannot and will not pull the ambassador.

An official recall of an ambassador is a very serious diplomatic statement. It usually means an end to relations as they were and it means that a diplomatic downgrade is in the works.

The Egyptian press pushed the story. But within a day it was clear that the ambassador was not going home and the official foreign ministry press releases never even mentioned the possibility of a recall.

Recalling the ambassador to Israel would be a setback to the peace deal between Israel and Egypt and it is not in Egypt's best interest to scuttle the peace deal.

There is however popular support to demonize Israel.

The result is that Egyptian leadership maintains a schizoid stance when it comes to Israel. It must permit the vehement anti-Israel propaganda and vitriol. And it must also reach over and continue working with Israel on mutually beneficial projects.

This is all part of what it means to be the new Egypt.

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Al Qaeda in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Washington Times was the first media outlet to report that the terrorists who struck Israel in the area around Eilat were members of an al Qaeda terrorist unit. The unit was based in Sinai.

For some time now there have been intelligence reports that al Qaeda was organizing cells in the Egyptian Sinai and training there. These groups and individuals also trained in other parts of the world especially Iran, Pakistan and Syria.

In general, the activities of these terrorist units were local and they seldom crossed the border. There are, however, always exceptions and the barrage of rockets that hit Aqaba last year were also said to have been shot by al Qaeda cells in the Egyptian Sinai.

The intel and the evidence seem to point in one direction. If it really is al Qaeda behind these attacks, the rules of the game have shifted and as such, the rules of engagement will shift, as well.

Egypt - even the new Egypt, does not want al Qaeda perpetrating attacks from their soil. Not locally and not against Israel.

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Israel Appeals to UN
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has filed an official complaint to the United Nations Security Council.

The Security Council has not yet condemned the recent terror attacks that killed eight Israelis. Why? What is stopping the Security Council from condemning the horrific events that targeted innocent civilians?

The answer is simple. The answer is Lebanon.

Lebanon has refused to permit the passage of any wording condemning the terrorist attack. In response, Israel's new ambassador to the UN, Ron Prosor, filed a formal complaint. He added the recent rocket fire, too. That attack should have been condemned by the Security Council as well.

The letter of complaint from Israel was sent to Ban Ki Moon, the Secretary General of the United Nations.

Prosor explained that these terrorist actions against Israel are more evidence proving that Gaza, under supposed control by Hamas, is a "hotbed of terror."

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Chavez and Ghadaffi
By Micah Halpern

August 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It should come as no surprise that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, no matter what, continues to support and side with Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi.

Chavez said that Venezuela will not recognize the National Transitional Council in Libya. During a cabinet meeting that was broadcasted on Venezuelan television Chavez said boldly and clearly that ousting Ghadaffi was wrong.

He said: "This is kicking, spitting ... on the most basic elements of international law."

He said: "Where are the international rights? This is like the caveman era."

Chavez saw the intervention of NATO as an example of how the West is trying to unseat and exploit the non-Western world.

His good friend Ghadaffi would agree. With friends like these ...

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Russian Chess Chief Speaks to Ghadaffi
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday, head of Russian Chess Federation Kirsan Ilyumzhinov announced that Muammar Ghaddafi had told him by telephone that he was still in Tripoli, alive and well, and had no plans to leave the city.

On a recent visit to Libya Ilyumzhinov met with Ghadaffi. The Russian representative visited during the NATO bombing campaign.

According to Ghadaffi's eldest son Mohammad, he came to talk about the situation and relay messages to and from the Russian government.
Ilyumzhinov said that he had called Ghadaffi by telephone on Tuesday afternoon and they spoke. He said that the former leader of Libya sounded as if he was gearing up for a fight.

This is an important message. Ghadaffi has not been seen in public or on tape since a television appearance on June 21. Now we have the word of a very distinguished Russian official that Ghadaffi is in Tripoli and is during well.
We shall see.

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Israel Targets Gaza GRAD Commander
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel successfully found and targeted the commander of the group that has been launching rockets into the southern region.

In tandem with the horrific terror attacks of yesterday, approximately twenty GRAD rockets rained down on Israel within a 24 hour period. At least ten people were injured, some seriously, from the rocket attacks.

Israel's intelligence and operational units shifted into high gear and Samil Abdul Mati, Senior Commander of the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC), was found. Abdul Mati was on his motorcycle in Northern Gaza when Israel dispatched the missile that killed him.
As an important point of clarification - Israel's action was not retaliation.

Israel engaged in a surgical attack - a defensive mission to prevent future rocket attacks. Abdul Mati was responsible for numerous past sorties and was planning future attacks on Israel.

Israel's retaliation will take place later, of that I am certain.

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New Terror in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 19, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

The horrific terror attacks that struck Israel three, nearly simultaneous, times yesterday are a product of the out-of-whack metabolism that is raging in the region. At last count, eight Israelis were dead, killed by terrorists

There is no doubt about it. These attacks were able to take place because of the combination of the fall of Hosni Mubarak and an opening of the border between Gaza and Egypt.

Perpetrators, who probably have links to Egypt, and were probably aided by Gaza residents who scouted the area from their vantage point. The terrorists shot at and murdered Jewish Israelis on their way to vacation in Eilat.

At the same time as the shootings, road side bombs were detonated and three rockets were shot from Gaza toward Israel. All three rockets were intercepted mid-air by Israel's new Iron Dome anti-rocket anti-missile defense system.

Israel retaliated with an air force strike on Gaza.

The Israeli counter strike is not yet completed. Israel will seek out the group that organized and perpetrated the attacks and Israel will counter hard and counter surgically.

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Mubarak Tells Assad What?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's Egyptian daily al Gomhuriya quoted former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak as saying that Syria strongman Bashar Assad should step down because of the "crimes he committed against his countrymen."

Mubarak said that Assad should honor the Syria people's request and he should resign.

This entire episode is probably fiction.

There is no free press in Egypt and Mubarak has not and will not make public statements - about anything. He is being held in an Egyptian hospital under guard as a defendant in the case that could cost him his life. The last thing on his mind is what is happening in Syria and whether Bashar Assad should resign.

However, the current dictators of Egypt most certainly have an interest in Bashar Assad.

Their first interest in weighing in on Syria is to try to position themselves, once again as they were under Mubarak, as leaders in the Arab world. It may, however, be a miscalculation to invoke the old guard and the prowess of a fallen leader to achieve this status.

The image of Mubarak might backfire and Egypt will gain nothing more than a reputation as pathetic interventionists.

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Egypt Cancels Brazil Soccer Game
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt cancelled their friendly soccer match against Brazil.

The match was schedule to take place on Tuesday, September 6 but because of security reasons that match will not happen.
Brazil is a five-time world champion and when the two teams last met, Brazil won 4-3 in a nail biting match.

Things have changed. It used to be that soccer was more important than just about anything in Egypt ... including politics.

But now, if something were to go wrong during a match with Brazil - if there were to be a security snafu while the Brazilian team was in

Egypt ... then Egypt would suffer an embarrassment at a level beyond which any Westerner can possibility imagine.

So the authorities, correctly, cancelled the game.

And besides, the Egyptian soccer team does not even have a coach right now.

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Jordan Tells Syria to Reform
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Jordanian Prime Minister Marouf al-Bakhit called on Syria to stop killing civilians.

Jordan has gone on the record saying that reforms and more liberal policies must be implemented in Syria and that the time has come to reshape the powers that govern Syria.

The Jordanian news service Petra reported all this yesterday. The prime minister is quoted as saying: "There is a need to stop violence immediately, start implementing reforms and resort to dialogue."

On Sunday The King of Jordan also called a press conference and announced a set of proposed changes that would empower his own parliament. The reforms would give the parliament some of the powers that had been under the control of and reserved for the King

So Jordan calls on Syria to change and reform and Jordan slowly initiates her own changes and reforms. Jordan is, in a matter of speaking, putting her money where her mouth is.

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Palestine Declaration Will Hurt US
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went on the record yesterday and said that the UN proposal to unilaterally declare a Palestinian State will break the stalemate and help move Israel and the Palestinians closer to a negotiated settlement.

A message was also sent out by Hanan Ashwarwi saying that the Palestinians plan to ask the Security Council for approval.

The Palestinians hope that the US will abstain.

If the US does abstain the proposal will pass the Security Council and go to the General Assembly where the Palestinians have lined up at least 134 countries that they can count on to vote in favor of statehood.

The Palestinians have been told that the US cannot vote in favor of their statehood in the Security Council. But an abstention, that might be a way out. At least, so think the Palestinians.

The problem or the genius with this logic is that if the United States abstains it will turn US Middle East policy on its head. This administration, however, has been known to do just that. It would mean an end to direct negotiations and would thrust the region into conflict.

On the flip side, if the US vetoes rather than abstains, as would be the expectation, it would mean a thumb in the eye of the US by the Palestinians. The move would publically humiliate the United States. The Palestinians would call them out saying you are not really in favor of a Palestinian state - you pay lip service, but you the great magnanimous United States of America, are preventing the declaration of a Palestinian state.

Once again, the United States has managed to stab itself in the back - diplomatically speaking, of course.

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Russia to Talk to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Most foreign affairs analysts and policy makers would agree that the threat of Iran making a nuclear weapon is probably the greatest single danger facing the Western world. The fear is not just that Iran may use that weapon against Israel or other Western targets, but that Iran will supply nuclear weapons or nuclear technology to any country or group wanting it.

The Russians are not immune to that fear. It appears that they are now attempting to use their special relationship with Iran to bring about a mutually acceptable resolution to this nuclear issue.

Over the past few days Russia Foreign Minister Sergie Levrov and a special emissary of the Russian president have been involved in high level discussions and meetings with Iranians - including discussions with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The purpose of the discussions is to assure Iran that they will be able to develop nuclear technology ... like every other country in the world ... with supervision.

Iran trusts Russia more than any other country on this issue with the possible exception of China. Russia has an ongoing relationship with Iran on nuclear development and Russia is bound to make money on any deal that is struck.

This plan may succeed. This time, Iran might be willing to play along.

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Saudi Using Syria Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

If the Middle East were a game, the game would be called Push-Me Pull-You, Middle East style.

The main split in power in the Middle East right now is between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Although there are those who would have us believe that there is one united voice in the Middle East, that is a total myth and fabrication.

Saudi Arabia pulled its ambassador from Damascus. They did it not simply to take a stand against a tyrant who murders civilians, they did it because Saudi Arabia is taking a stab at Iran. Iran is linked to the Syrian regime and Syria is one of Iran's few friends in the region.

Iranians are Muslims but they are not Sunnis--- they are Shiites. The Iranians have forged a link with Syria who are Allawites --- a breakoff of Shiia. The Saudis want to isolate Iran and one method is by forcing Iran's few friends to fall.

If Syria falls it would strike a significant blow to Iran. And it could help bring about a drastically altered Saudi vision of the region - one in which Iran is not a player.

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Riots in England
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 12, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Commentary from the other side of the pond: Even casual observation of the rising surge of violence enveloping Great Britain leads us to conclude that the rioters feel comfortable and anonymous enough to join in and celebrate the destruction.

Mass mentality is a powerful tool - it is a dangerous and destructive tool.

Scotland Yard will slowly call people to account for their actions and their crimes. The police are using facial recognition software to identify participants and will, in the end, find and prosecute the perpetrators for their role in these days of bedlam.

It used to be that after riots people, the masses, slipped back into the woodwork and resumed their normal lives. The average rioter did not refer to the events and it was as if no one had been part of the destruction - as if they were all anonymous, leaving only the leaders to accept responsibility.

Technology has changed all that. Now, no one can slip away and even faces hidden behind masks can be identified,
We are witnessing a new level of civil discontent. Now comes the consequences.

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Poisoning Arafat
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Events in the Middle East are sometimes so hilarious that even experienced analysts throw up their hands in disbelief.

Case in point: the other day I read about a high level report prepared for Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president. The report was about the poisoning death of Arafat.

Two other reports like this have already surfaced, so I was not surprised to read that there was a third account. The first two reports rambled on, page after page, explaining how the Israelis poisoned Arafat in his French hospital bed.

This report contained new and different information. It blamed Mohammed Dahlan - not the Israelis. Dahlan was Arafat's strong-arm man in Gaza, he was an up and coming leader under Arafat. Dahlan and Marwan Barghouti were thought to be the future of Palestinian leadership. And Dahlan was the preferred choice of the Clinton administration.

Mohammed Dahlan has, for the most part, been out of the Palestinian picture ever since the coup that ousted Fatah from Gaza. He did, however recently criticize the PA leader by suggesting that Abbas saw himself above the law for pushing off elections. Dahlan was slapped with a charge of sedition and has left the country.

In order to further sully Dahlan and make certain that he cannot make a play for power this new report emerged, constructed and made public by Abbas' cronies.

I wonder why they didn't just come out with it and call him a Mossad operative?

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Messages to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Foreign Minister of Turkey met with Syria's President Assad yesterday in Damascus. He delivered a message.

The message went like this: Enough already - stop killing civilians.

The Turkish Foreign Minister said that the tone of the meeting was frank but friendly. He said that Turkey will be watching closely these next few days to make certain that Syria heard the message.

Assad characterized the meeting as a thank you to Turkey for their help in fighting terrorists and securing the border.

Assad does not get the messages that are being sent him. He sees the protesters as terrorists. He missed the entire point of the Turkish mission. And today when an international committee speaks to him, he will not hear that message either.

Assad has no interest in hearing verbal messages. It is clear to him that the longer he stays in power, the easier it is to hang on to power.

Muammar Ghadaffi would agree.

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US Ambassador Stays While Arabs Recall
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the US State Department officially announced that they were pleased that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait had recalled their ambassadors from Syria.

They added that they hoped that more Arab countries would follow suit.

The irony of the State Dept. announcement is that last week Italy withdrew their ambassador from Syria and called on Western countries to do the same. The United States engaged in no serious discussion after the bold move by the Italians and has had no serious discussions about pulling their own ambassador.

Add to that the fact that the United States just re-established relations with Syria a little over a year ago, in 2010. In 2005 the US pulled its ambassador after the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The fact that the US sent an ambassador back to Syria is indicative of the misguided impressions and mistaken assumptions the US has of the region. The United States should never have rewarded Syria and upgraded their diplomatic status by returning an ambassador.

Right now, as the brutal Syrian regime murders and arrests masses of people, the United States should once again recall its ambassador.
There is no conscionable reason for the United States to have an ambassadorial presence in Damascus.

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Saudis Recall Ambassador from Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

According to reports, Saudi Arabia is recalling its ambassador to Syria. The first outlet to report this news was al Arabiya TV.

If the report is accurate, it could be the first step towards saving the lives of those Syrians being slaughtered by the Assad regime. If other Arab countries follow suit strong message will have been sent to Assad that he must stop the slaughter.

On Tuesday Turkey is scheduled to send their foreign minister to Syria to deliver a very strong statement telling Assad that Syria must stop killing civilians.

And on Sunday The Arab League issued a statement acknowledging that they were concerned about what was happening in Syria.

Either Assad will feel the Arab pressure and stop killing civilians and start instituting reforms or Assad will feel the pressure and simply slow down the killing and the crackdown so that he can fly under the radar which will relieve the pressure put upon him but change nothing.

Either, or. It is impossible to predict the actions of this thug.

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Arab League Makes a Statement
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Finally - the Arab League has made a statement about Syria.
Here is the official statement as quoted in QNA, the Qatar based news agency:

"Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby issued a statement expressing growing concern and strong distress over the deteriorating security conditions in Syria due to escalating violence and military operations in Hama and Deir al-Zor and other areas of Syria.'"

"Growing concern and strong distress" are hardly demands to stop the mass murder.

"Deteriorating security conditions" hardly describes the crisis that Syria is faces.

"Escalating violence and military operations" is an understatement when it comes to the police and army attacks shelling beating and arresting civilians and torturing them in makeshift prisons.

I know we should be happy that the Arab League has at least taken the step to issue a statement. But this kind of statement will not corral the Arab masses nor will it intimidate the Syrian regime. This is what we call a pro forma statement borne out of pressure, not conviction.

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Did NATO Kill Ghadaffi's Son
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There were unconfirmed reports coming out of Libya yesterday that Khamis, son of Muammar Ghadaffi, was killed in a NATO air strike.

Opposition forces claim that he was killed. Forces loyal to the regime say that he was not killed.

Here are the key problems: Confirming information from Libya is impossible and spreading an untruth in Libya is propaganda. Each side has an interest in the story going their way - but only one side is accurate and truthful.

If Khamis was killed it is a huge blow to the Ghadaffi regime. Khamis heads the most loyal, best trained and best equipped unit in Libya. Everyone knows it. Without Khamis the opposition would have a much easier time.

Now we wait and see. Will Khamis step forward? Will he be buried.
Will he try to stay low and watch the opposition strut forward and show their skills and weaknesses and then strike hard at their leadership?

It is all possible. Probable - I just don't know.

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1 Senator Was in Session
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week United States ambassador to Syria Robert Ford testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs.

At almost the exact moment that the US Ambassador to Syria was giving his presentation, the US embassy in Damascus was evacuating all-non essential personnel from Syria.

Ambassador Ford testified before only one person. The other 18 members of the committee were otherwise preoccupied. Many were home -fleeing as soon as the debt ceiling issue was resolved.

The only Senator on the dais was Bob Casey, Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania.

Syria is a critical arena in the world today. A despot is oppressing his people and conducting a systematic campaign to stifle reforms and democratic values. US leadership must have the best information about what is happening and the man with boots on the ground is Robert Ford, the Ambassador.

Not to have heard with their own ears what Ambassador Ford had to say was a missed opportunity to be best informed in order to make the right decisions when the time comes. And it will be coming soon.

Shame on those members of the Committee.

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Egypt is of 2 Minds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Hosni Mubarak was wheeled into a courtroom in the police academy in Cairo, Egypt. He was placed in a metal cage with his two sons and several other defendants.

Mubarak, the former president of Egypt, was being tried on three charges:

# 1: the deaths of people who died during the January revolution that ousted him from power
# 2: corruption in a Sinai development deal
# 3: corruption in a gas deal that cheated Egypt out of natural gas while selling it to Israel

Egyptians seem of two minds regarding the Mubarak trial, and both sides came out and made their voices heard.
One side says try him, convict him and kill him - he was a ruthless dictator, a thug and a tyrant. They say the new Egypt must make a symbol out of old man Mubarak.

The other side says that over the three decades of his reign, Mubarak accomplished important and positive feats for Egypt - now he is old and sick and just let him go already. They assert that his greatest crime was staying in power too long.

The trial was pushed off and will continue on August 15. In the meantime, Mubarak is being moved to a Cairo hospital, close to the court proceedings.

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Arab Double Standard
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Italy recalled its ambassador from Syria yesterday. Then the Italians called on all European Union member countries and the EU itself to recall their ambassadors.

This was an important and bold step on the part of Italy, it signals that the Italians are taking a leadership role against Assad and his regime in Syria.

The EU officially said that they are not planning to recall their ambassador but many other Western countries are contemplating the move.

One big question is why are the Western countries thinking of applying such heavy pressure on Syria? Recalling an ambassador is a very strong diplomatic statement.

Another questions is, where are the Arab and Muslim countries? They seem to be standing and watching as Arabs and Muslims are murdered.

There is no outcry and there has been no move to isolate Syria. If there was a mass recall of 15 or 10 or even 5 ambassadors from Arab and Muslim countries it would have a huge impact on Syria's actions and the way they view their actions.

But this is typical of the Arab and Muslim world. Thousands will die in Syria at the hand of a Muslim Arab dictator and there will be absolute silence. The Arab and Muslim worlds only get up-in-arms when Israelis kill Palestinians.

That is a terrible double standard.

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Did Mossad Hit Another Iranian Nuke Scientist?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The German paper Der Spiegel ran a piece saying that the Mossad assassinated another Iranian nuclear scientist last week in Teheran.

It is possible - although you would never know it from the Iranians who first said that the victim was a scientist working on developing switches. The scientist was shot while taking his daughter to kindergarten. Originally Iran said that the name of the scientist was Darioush Rezaei. Later they said the victim was really Darioush

Rezeinejad, a graduate student in electrical engineering.
Their names are very similar and the murderers killed the wrong person, said the Iranians.

The German paper cited its source for the assassination being a Mossad operation as an Israeli intelligence source in Beirut. They concluded that this was the first operation of the new head of Mossad Tamir Pardo. They are saying that there is a growing conflict between the Israeli airforce and the Mossad as to how to manage and attack the Iranian nuclear program.

Once again, it is possible, but the source is highly unlikely.

There is no way that any Mossad source in Beirut has the access to know what is happening on an operation in Iran. And no way that he or she would be speaking to a German journalist in Beirut.

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Bieber's Hebrew Tat
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Popular culture is sometimes a key to understanding politics and foreign affairs.

Justin Bieber made a trip to Israel in May. The teen pop music sensation from Canada wanted to walk where Jesus walked. And indeed, Bieber is a devout Christian who admitted to praying before his performances in Hebrew and in English.

Yup, Justin Bieber prays in Hebrew.

That's not all. Bieber has, to use the correct lingo, a tat - for the over the hill gang, he has a tattoo. And the tat is in Hebrew.
Justin Bieber and his father Jeremy Bieber have matching tattoos - the name Jesus written in Hebrew.

The message of the holy land resonates for young people across the world.

The Jewish people in their ancestral homeland, connecting, walking, living in the cities of the Bible is, for many people, an inspiration and a vehicle to better understand the Bible in today's world.

Justin Bieber is a cultural icon. He has an enormous impact on an entire generation. This trip to Israel and these prayers in Hebrew and Justin's Hebrew tat are priceless tools presenting Israel's message to today's youth in a positive, vibrant and awesome way.
Going to Israel is now cool.

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Turk Shake Up Bad For West
By Micah Halpern

July 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The shake-up in the Turkish army is a bad sign for the West and for Israel.

The Turkish army was always fiercely secular. It was a counterbalance to Islamic influences. The balance/counterbalance worked well - even under the current Turkish leadership in which Erdogan and his party represent a Muslim party.

The departure of the top echelon of leadership, including the four most important members of the military, leaves a gap that will be filled by political appointments. When this happens the balance will be shifted and the status quo will be altered, breaking the checks that had been in place against Muslim political interests.

The Turkish army has had very close relations with Israel and the United States. There were weapons deals and training drills and maneuvers. But that was with the understanding that the Turkish army play a role in keeping Turkey friendly and open to the West. For years the trade-off has been very positive and helped Turkey become a significant economic force in the region.

Now the shake-up. It could mean a drastic shift in orientation and have a huge impact on the region. Iran already reached out to Turkey and in the last UN Security Council vote on sanctions against Iran, Turkey sided with Iran against the sanctions.

Turkey must be watched very carefully.

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Entire Turk High Command Resigns
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey experienced a political and military earthquake yesterday.

Turkey's military chief of staff, head of ground forces, head of the navy and head of the air force all retired. All because General Isik Kosaner said that he can no longer protect his staff.

200 military personnel are now arrested and are being tried for plotting coups - 40 of them are generals. One very famous case "The Sledghammer" was actually made into an army seminar.

The army has always been the safety switch in Turkey. The army created coups and ousted government in 1960, 1980 and 1997.

The army in Turkey is staunchly secular, but the prime minister and his party are devout Muslims. It was the army that always forced the country to separate religion and state. And it was the army that kept Islam out of power.

But now the leadership of Turkey is boldly professing their Islamic practice. They are in power and this Muslim leadership wants the army out of politics.

This mass retirement is a very dangerous sign. It can have a huge impact on the preparedness and safety of Turkey.

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Justice in the PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed Dahlan crossed over into Jordan yesterday. He had returned to the West Bank on Friday and on Sunday his trial for corruption and murder began.

Dahlan was the fair haired boy of Fatah with some people assuming that it is he who would succeed Arafat or then Abbas. He was the most popular Arafat adviser in the Clinton White House. That has all come crashing down.

Dahlan was the Fatah presence in Gaza. His downfall came because he was not present when Hamas led the coup that ousted Fatah from Gaza.

It signaled the end of Dahlan's future in Fatah. He was blamed for the Hamas takeover and was purged from Fatah and charged with undermining the leadership and the Fatah movement. The PA arrested his body guards, confiscated his weapons, ammunition and three armored cars.

So Dahlan left.

He saw the writing on the wall and knowing what it meant - he escaped. Fleeing is a long and honored response to issues in the Middle East.

I am certain that Dahlan will pop up somewhere in a few months. He may even be the one to tell the real story about the inner circle of Fatah.

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Voice of Protest Murdered in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The body of Ibrahim Qashoush body was found in the Assi river in Hama. His throat had been cut out.

Qashoush was the voice of the movement in Syria to oust dictator Bashar Assad. It was Qashoush who wrote the famous song "Get Out Bashar" that was sung and played on loud speakers at all the rallies and demonstrations.

Your legitimacy here has ended
Get out Bashar
Bashar you're a liar
To hell with you and your speech
Freedom is at the door
Time to leave Bashar
Mahar you're a coward
You're an agent of the US
Syrians won't be humiliated
Get out Bashar

Qashoush was probably taken by the secret police, murdered then dumped in the river that flows through his home town. It was a signal from regime. It is a threat. The regime is cracking down even more. Assad and his regime understand the rules of the game of survival - the longer he stays in power the harder it will be to oust him.

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Norway Mistakes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The horrific terror in Norway has caused many organizers and organizations to re-evaluate the safety of their camps and other educational environments. And rightly so.

But frankly, the response of the Norwegian police and assistance teams was so abysmal it is beneath any real critique. The list of mistakes leaves one breathless.

The perpetrator was on a terrorist watch list after ordering explosives from Poland and then purchasing 6 tons of ammonium nitrate.

The police in Norway do not carry guns.

There were no helicopters available because every single crew was on vacation at the very same time.

The SWAT team was not even called until 50 minutes after the police were informed and were finally put on a boat 40 minutes later.

The boat containing police and equipment was so heavy it took on water, stopped to bale out the water and then proceeded very slowly.

The terrorist made the trip from downtown to the camp in 20 minutes.
It took the SWAT team took over 2 hours to arrive.

We will never know how many people were murdered in the time that it took the police to arrive and arrest the terrorist.

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Wagner and Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Today the Israel Chamber Orchestra will perform Wagner. The piece, Siegfried Idyll, was not even rehearsed in Israel. It was rehearsed on Sunday in Bayreuth, Germany and will be performed there today, at an annual Wagner festival. This is a first.

There have been attempts to play Wagner in Israel and even successes. In 2001 at the Israel Festival in Jerusalem Wagner was played - but not by an official Israeli orchestra.

The issue comes up often. The debate ensues. Should an Israeli orchestra play Wagner?

Wagner was a rabid anti-Semite. His essay entitled Jews in Music is a classic work of anti-Semitism. It became one of the most read anti-Semitic works of the day alongside the works of Wilhelm Marr and Edouard Drumont. Wagner's daughter married one of the greatest theoretical anti-Semites of the era named Houston Stewart Chamberlain.

Hitler loved Wagner and played his music constantly - even playing it while Jews were marched off to the gas chambers. When it comes to Wagner, Israelis and Holocaust survivors are very sensitive. And indeed, the official policy of Israel since Kristallnacht is not to play Wagner.

Roberto Paternostro, conductor of the Israel Chamber Orchestra, is one of the exceptions. The child of holocaust survivors, he wants to play the music of Wagner.

The question is not just whether wounds have healed and whether enough time has passed.

The question is one of principle.

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Car Accident in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

According to MAAN, the Palestinian news service, four men were killed in a car accident in Gaza on Friday night. One of the men was a leader of the al Kuds Brigade, the military wing of Islamic Jihad.

Both the Islamic Jihad and the al Kuds Brigade confirmed the accident and the deaths. The car was overtaking another vehicle near Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip and hit a truck head on.

Roads are very narrow in that region, there are slight inclines and only partial shoulders. People drive very quickly and trucks move slowly. So naturally, cars want to pass and move along. But these are not highways. Gaza is only 25 miles long and between 4 and 7 miles wide.

The claim will be made that Israel had a hand in the killings. But no such luck. It is no secret that there are a lot, actually, far too many traffic casualties in Gaza. Leaders and self proclaimed important people are some of the fastest and worst drivers on those roads.

Sometimes, even very important bad guys die in traffic accidents in Gaza.

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My Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

With my deadline looming on Friday, brought on by the Jewish Sabbath, I took what information had emerged and made a judgment call. As it turns out, I was in error.

Earlier on Friday it was clear that Norway had fallen prey to horrific mass murders - near simultaneous attacks in the heart of Oslo and in the Labor Movement summer camp just outside Oslo. Even early on the numbers of dead appeared beyond comprehension - only to be dwarfed by the actual number that emerged over the weekend.

Two Muslim groups immediately accepted responsibility. I evaluated, interpreted and concluded that the events in Norway were the acts of Islamic terror. Only later, with the advantage of having received more and accurate information, I see that that was not the case.
Although Muslim terror groups have threatened Norway and although these acts were clearly modeled on al Qaeda style operations they were perpetrated by a lone right wing Christian extremist who wanted to wipe out liberal ideas.

The mass murderer was a terrorist and a self proclaimed crusader for his cause. He knew what he did was wrong but said, through his lawyer, that what he did was necessary.

At the time of my writing there was no way of getting any better info and of extrapolating from there. I have kept the mistaken entry as originally posted as an important reminder for myself and to keep the historical record straight.

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Muslim Terror in Norway
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The simultaneous attacks that shook Oslo, Norway were the work of an Islamic terror group called The Helpers of World Jihad. The death toll is still climbing - it will reach at least 30 because, sadly, some of the injured will succumb to their wounds.

A bomb struck the center of the city -- right next to the office of the prime minister and the ministry of finance. Then a man dressed in police uniform opened fire on a summer camp sponsored by the Labor movement.

It was both a massacre of children who were simply having summer fun and a massive murder in a political hub of the capital city of Norway.
This is the same terror group that was responsible for the suicide bombing in a pedestrian mall in downtown Stockholm in December of 2011.

The objective of The Helpers of World Jihad is to wreak havoc and instill fear in areas that had until then been far away from the conflict. This terror group wants the leaders and the people of Norway and Sweden to know that the conflict is not limited to the Middle East - it is also in Stockholm and Oslo.

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Libya Selling Weapons to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

One of the groups gaining tremendously from the unrest in Libya is --- Hamas in Gaza.

How so? --- you ask.

Weapons and armaments.

Hamas is buying a huge amount of equipment from the opposition forces in Libya.

The opposition has weapons and they are selling some of them off.

Those weapons are smuggled east from the areas around Benghazi to the border with Egypt. After crossing into Egypt the smuggled weapons continue east until they cross into the Gaza strip.

What that means is that Western weapons given to aid in the fight against Ghadaffi are ending up in the hands of Hamas in Gaza.

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Norway Tells PA NO WAY!
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 19, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was in Norway yesterday.
Abbas was there to shore up support and test the winds of Northern Europe on the subject of the Palestinian proposal to declare unilateral statehood at the United Nations during the General Assembly in September.

The leadership of Norway was very diplomatic in saying that that although they view the statehood declaration as legitimate, Norway is not ready to announce its support for an independent Palestinian state at this time.

This is a significant blow to Abbas and to the declaration movement.

Norway has always been a major supporter of the PA. They give about $100 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority plus another $25 million in aid to the United Nations for the PA. Percentage wise, Norway gives to PA far more per capita than almost any other Western or Arab country.

When Norway acknowledges publicly that they are unlikely to support the Palestinian declaration of statehood it should be seen as an omen for conflict.

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Iran's Modesty Police
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Welcome to summer in Iran.

The summertime is excruciatingly hot in Iran. And every summer the Chastity Police come out.

The Chastity Police are the division of the Iranian police charged with policing modesty. Any woman who is not dressed appropriately, who does not have her head and face covered appropriately, is arrested or fined. There are 70,000 police at work in these modesty squads.

It doesn't stop there. Next comes nail polish. If any polish peeps out of sandals, that wearer, too, is fined or arrested. Truly, a head to toe search.

But the mandate of the Chastity Police is not limited to women.
The Chastity Police also patrol clothing stores and barber shops.

They check to make sure that all haircuts conform to Islamic law. No shorts for men. No ponytails for men, no mullet for men - that is a haircut with short sides and a long back. Barbers are presented with a booklet detailing permitted haircuts and there are posters with the same information.

And then Iranian leadership tells the world how free they are, how there is no more perfect society in the world.

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Libya and the Contact Group
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the contact group dealing with Libya met in Turkey and decided to recognize the opposition. They feel that this move will give the opposition the support they need to help pave the way for a new interim government.

The group will also ratchet up the pressure to oust Ghadaffi. It has been 5 months and still Ghadaffi shows no signs of breaking.

For the first time China and Russia were invited to the meeting.

Neither attended, saying that they do not believe in supporting one side of this internal conflict over the other. The response by China and Russia points out that the United States and others have chosen a side in this conflict. While neither Russia nor China likes the current regime they do not actively seek its removal.

In response to the decision by the contact group Russia proclaimed that Ghadaffi has a suicide plan. No, not that Ghadaffi has any intention of offing himself. This suicide plan means that if the situation gets too intolerable or hopeless Ghadaffi will take out major industries and infrastructures and cities within Libya.

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Rockets Again Rain on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday six Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel. On Friday another rocket from Gaza landed in Israel.

This is a watershed. After relative calm Hamas of Gaza has permitted other groups to loft rockets into Israel. The parties who shot these seven rockets are not Hamas directly. But Hamas is turning a blind eye to their actions.

Tensions are rising and Israel has begun a response. As more rockets fall, more responses will be made. Between Thursday night and Friday morning Israeli planes hit three targets in Gaza. All were smuggling tunnels.

Israel's Military Chief of Staff Benny Gantz called a meeting to evaluate and plan responses.

There are the obvious: do nothing, bomb the tunnels, target the leaders, invade and clean house. Actions can be combined, increased, intensified, become more widespread.

Hamas has an objective. Hamas wants to push negative international media attention on Israel over the summer while Hamas and PA work out their difference and move toward a unilateral declaration of statehood in the United Nations.

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Arab League Push Palestinian State
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League has decided to support and push for United Nations recognition of the declared Palestinian state. The Arab League wants to upgrade Palestinian status in the UN to that of full member. This is all supposed to happen in September.

AP got a copy of the communique detailing this decision.

At the Arab League meeting in Qatar yesterday it was decided that the best move was to declare a Palestinian state at the UN. The League believes that this move will pressure Israel and the United States into making concessions.

But the rules are clear. In order to upgrade from observer to full member the Security Council must approve the proposal. Then it must be approved by the General Assembly.

There is no way that the Security Council will approve this change.

The US will veto it. That means that a vote in the General Assembly will have no international significance - it will only serve to embarrass the US.

Embarrassing the US might be the objective of the Palestinians and the Arab League. If it is - they should be prepared for the ramifications of such a public embarrassment.

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Arab Poll Pans Obama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A new study by James Zogby at the Arab American Institute presents some fascinating and damning numbers for the Obama administration.

Zogby looked at individual Arab states. Each was asked about President Barack Obama and United States policy in the region.

Lebanon: 99% disapproved of Obama's policies in the Middle East and feel that he has failed.
Morocco: 88% disapprove of Obama and US policies.
Egypt: 90% reject Obama's policies and felt he had failed.
Saudi Arabia: 77% disapprove.

These numbers are so bad it should shock the White House into a drastic and immediate change in policy. Until now, the policy of the Obama Administration has been to appease the Arab states and alienate the Israelis.

The White House has achieved half of their goal. They have successfully alienated the Israelis. But there is no way to appease the Arab states. The White House does not understand this. The White House does not understand that Arab states feel betrayed by the US and by Obama.

More than that, Obama cannot understand why both Israelis and Arabs are so upset. The White House clings to the old cliche: if both sides in a deal are upset, we must be doing something right.
They are wrong. When it comes to the Middle East, the Obama administration is doing something wrong, something terribly wrong.

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Neo-Nazis in Russia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 12, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a court in Russia sentenced 12 Neo-Nazi skin heads to prison. They will receive from 10 years to life.

These Neo-Nazis were found guilty in the brutal murder of 27 people.

All the crimes were hate crimes - beatings, stabbings, decapitations. They even filmed their own crimes, like the decapitation of a man they suspected of being a police informant.

Neo-Nazism is on the rise in Russia. Figures suggest that half of the Neo-Nazis in all the world are in Russia. Some put the numbers in Russia at 70,000.

Numbers do not do the Neo-Nazi movement justice. Video depicts the movement and its popularity much more accurately. Some of this groups videotaped murders and beatings were the most viewed videos on the internet in Russia.

Their message is Neo-Fascist and is exactly modeled on Hitler's.

They preach that foreigners - Jews, Muslims and immigrants from the Caucuses, destroy the true essence of Russia. They preach that there is one simple division white and black. Whites are Russians and blacks are everyone else. Their acts of violence are so heinous that foreign students at university are not permitted outside on certain days - like Hitler's birthday.

This is the very scary reality of a new evolving democracy.

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Hundreds Die Every Day
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is important to look at events in other parts of the world to gain perspective on our lives and events that touch and influence our world.

Yesterday was a typical day around the world.
A train derailed in India left approximately 40 dead and over 100 injured.

In a second derailment in India authorities are still tallying the number of dead and injured.

A boat sunk in the Volga and the toll is at 170 missing.

In India, bad train wrecks killing hundreds of people happen pretty often. Hundreds die because of human error and carelessness.

Train wrecks and boats that sink are not natural disasters, they are not acts of God. They happen because of poor building and poor infrastructure, because of carelessness and unwise decision making.

Here comes the perspective: Far more people have died in train crashes in India this year than in the total of all the revolutions in the Arab world.

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Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan is showing real signs of breaking and becoming the next country to join the wave of unrest in the Middle East. For months now, every Friday has been a day of massive protests by religious extremists - especially the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood has challenged the monarchy and the existing government and repeatedly called for their removal and for instituting reforms and liberalization and freedoms. And indeed the King has swapped cabinets, replaced people and made superficial changes hoping to placate the demands of the extremists.

Now the Brotherhood has taken the issue to the UN.
The irony. The Muslim Brotherhood, an anti-democratic group demanding democratic recognition.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is asking for an investigation by the UN Anti Corruption Committee. (ACC). They hope to put the issue on the map. They want to create an international and local ground swell that will ultimately oust King Abdullah.

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450,000 Protest in Hama Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, in the city of Hama in Syria, 450,000 people came out in protest against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

The protests were not limited to Hama, there were protests throughout the rest of Syria. But for Syrians and for students of the Middle East, Hama is a symbol. Hama has history.

Hama was a city under siege. Bashar Assad was clamping down on the city. Then ambassadors from the United States and France came in a show of support and gave encouragement to the local residents. The ambassadors told the people of Hama that the world cares and that the world is watching.

In 1982, in this same town of Hama, this dictator's father - Hafez Assad massacred 30,000 people in a single day. The massacre was so brutal that the next day Assad had special forces sent in to kill even the domestic and farm animals of Hama.

All of Syria remembers the horrific massacre in Hama. Now they wonder if there will be another.

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Hamas Captures Israeli Spy
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday Hamas announced that they arrested a double agent. According to Hamas the agent had been helping Israel for the past 23 years. They say that this agent is responsible for the deaths and arrest of numerous Hamas members.

On Wednesday Hamas announced that they had arrested an Israeli agent who for years had acted as finance minister for the Israelis. They say this person was the pocket book for Israeli assets in Gaza and that he paid them in cash.

The two announcements could be talking about the same person.
If the reports are true it shows just how deeply entrenched Israeli intelligence is in Gaza. To be an active spy and to handle assets as a middle man for 23 years is an entire career.

Only now that person has been outed, been discovered. Of course, whoever he is or they are --- they really do not work for Israel.

They may be helping Israel. Israel may have been paying them and everyone else. But they do not work for Israel.

There is no link between Israel and these assets. There could never be a link, it would be too risky. The people involved have no information about Israel and Israeli intelligence, just information about Gaza.

The sad shame is that Israel can do nothing once a person has been caught. If the Israelis had an inkling that arrests or capture were imminent, they could have removed the person/s and set them up in Israel. There are entire communities and complexes of Arabs who are former assets that have been "brought in." Unfortunately it is most probably too late in this case/s.

Experience says these people are tried at night and hung very soon after.

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Egypt's Secular Extremists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Observers of Egyptian society have been narrowly focusing on the Muslim Brotherhood and the threat that the Brotherhood poses to liberal ideals and reforms and democracy.

But serious threats also come from secular movements within Egypt.
In a recent interview with the Washington Times, Ahmed Ezz al Arab, number two in the large and very secular Wafd Party, gave a detailed description of how 9-11 was a hoax.

Al Arab also went to great lengths to explain how the Holocaust could never have happened, that it was physically impossible for it to have occurred. Certainly Nazis killed Jews, he allowed, but not millions of Jews.

And finally, he announced that Anne Frank's diary is a complete fabrication. Al Arab said that the girl may have existed but the story and the memoir did not. He remembers, he said, being a PhD student in Stockholm when he first came to that conclusion.

These are the thoughts of the Western educated secular leadership of Egypt. There is no need to say anything more about how Egypt is going to liberalize.

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Syria in Israel's Eyes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Director of Military Intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi delivered a remarkable and extremely insightful briefing yesterday.

Kochavi said that Assad of Syria is promising reforms and granting incentives so that Syrians will remain loyal to him. The incentives are working. According to MI (military intelligence) there have been only 20 to 30 Syrian officers who have defected and abandoned their positions.

According to Kochavi Assad needed more than the army to stop the uprising. The incentives he is offering include increased salaries to the military and subsides on staples for everyone.

If this phenomenon continues to take hold then Assad will have successfully quieted the revolt which threatens to topple his reign of power in this Middle East police state.

We will know more by next week.

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Israel To Hand Over 84 Bodies
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is in the final stages of handing over to the Palestinian Authority the bodies of 84 terrorists. Some of these terrorists were responsible for the most heinous attacks against Israeli citizens.
Approval for the handover was given months ago. The list was drawn up and it, too, was approved.

There is no quid pro quo. Israel is getting nothing for their generous gift. The Israeli response is that they received a request from the PA and they are gladly fulfilling the request.

But is this really a gesture of good will? If it is, how much more good will is on the horizon? In general, good will does not rank high in the respect quotient of the Arab world. Giving something for nothing is a sign of weakness - not an investment in good will.

I know the Israelis know this. I know that the advisers of the Prime Minister are all aware of it. And yet, they still are handing over the bodies of 84 terrorists.

The only conclusion I come to is that this is a gesture meant for the United States and not for the Palestinians and not for the region. The United States sees gestures as a sign of strength and magnanimity.

The problem is that the United States has it backwards when it comes to the Middle East.

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Egypt Blows Up Gas Pipe Line
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Early this morning, in Egypt, a truck with a handful of men armed with machine guns pulled up to the natural gas pipeline relay in the Northern Sinai Peninsula . They forced the guards away through intimidation and then set charges on the natural gas line and blew it up.

This act of terror and sabotage took place in Bir Abid, 60 miles east of the Suez Canal. The intent is to stop Egypt from providing natural gas to Israel. This is the third attack and the fifth attempt to shut down the gas flow from Egypt to Israel line.

There are several essential points to be noted: The natural gas line which goes to Israel, also flows to Jordan. The line that was blown up was not the right line. The destroyed line, according to a highly knowledgeable source, was an internal natural gas line.

There is a very vocal movement in Egypt to renegotiate the Camp David Treaty which articulates a special relationship between Egypt and Israel - and includes the natural gas provision.

An important aside is that Israel was much more heavily dependent on natural gas from Egypt before January when unrest took over the country. Before January, Israel received over 35% of its natural gas needs from Egypt, since the uprising Israel has weaned itself off Egyptian natural gas and Egypt now provides only 12-15% of their gas. That number, too, is dropping.

Jordan, however, has not found creative alternatives. Jordan remains 85% dependent on Egypt for natural gas. Damaging the pipeline to Israel hurts the Arabs of Jordan significantly more than it hurts the Jews of Israel.

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Gaza Flotilla and Greece
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Gaza flotilla has been on the minds of many this weekend.

The Greek government boarded and then turned back a ship headed out of their harbor for Gaza. On Friday, armed commandos stormed the ship to turn it back. And then on Saturday the captain of the ship was arrested by the Greek authorities.

For hundreds of years the code of the sea captain has been handed down from generation to generation. It is the moral and legal responsibility of every captain to do everything they can to maintain the safety of his passengers.

Greece charged the flotilla captain as violating that code. He was charged with endangering his passengers - a serious crime by any standard.

The activists trying to break into Gaza claim it is all politics. They say that Greece is "doing the bidding of the Israelis." The decision of the Greeks to turn back the ship might actually be in Israel's interests, but it is also an issue of safety.

The flotilla is an aggressive act against Israel. Now, especially, when the Gaza border with Egypt is open, there is now no international legal footing for any humanitarian group breaking through Israeli territorial waters with a ship.

Greece was correct to stop the flotilla.

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Iran - India Diplomatic Crisis
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A major diplomatic crisis is developing between Iran and India.

India has not been paying Iran for the oil that they have been receiving from them. The debt is building. India is nearly a year behind in payment.

India imports $12 billion of oil from Iran annually. That is about a half million barrels per day. All total Iran is the second largest oil supplier to India after Saudi Arabia. Iran supplies 12% of Indian oil.

But Iran does not want to be paid in Indian currency. China and Korea pay with import/export exchange ... especially cars. India sells a little green tea, but less than a billion dollars worth. Japan was going to help India by selling them yen. And the UAE was going to sell them dirmas. But these deals proved too expensive for India.

This crisis - which has been building for a year, is now about to explode.

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US Talking To Muslim Brotherhood
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the United States officially changed its policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. Now the US may engage in direct discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Until now official US policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood was that they would talk only to Egyptian parliamentarians who ran and were elected as independents.

This is a ginormous change in US policy.

The Muslim Brotherhood was the brainchild for both al Qaeda and Hamas. They are major supporters and financial contributors to Hamas. The Brotherhood stands for the exact opposite of freedom and democracy. It represents the Egyptian idea of establishing an Islamic caliphate in Egypt.

The Brotherhood was created in 1928 by Hassan al Banna. It had almost no members until the organization linked with Hitler and the Third Reich. The fascism of Hitlerism blended with Islamic Extremism created a unique creation in the Brotherhood. The secular side of this philosophy was found in the Baath parties in Syria and Iraq. Throughout the decades the Brotherhood has preached the mass murder of all who are not like them.

It is a grave error that the United States is making by lending credibility to the Brotherhood and approaching them as if they were any other party. They are not. They are dangerous. They stand for everything we oppose.

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Russia's New Nuke Missile
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia recently did another test of their newest nuclear missile. The Russians named this missile the Bulava which means "mace" in Russian.

The missile was launched from a submarine. It has a range of 3400 miles and the ability to strike half way around the world. The Bulava is called an intercontinental missile for a very good reason.

The Bulava is set to be the cornerstone of Russia's new nuclear arsenal. The Russians covered the test in their media. In the past they have posted Youtube video clips of the launch of Bulava missiles from submarines.

The question now is what is the market value of the Bulava and to which countries can Russia sell this missile. The real money in nuclear missiles is in sales.

This kind of weapon is not defensive, it is offensive only. The simple fact of developing and/or acquiring this missile says everything.

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2/3 of Egypt Support Peace w/ Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

67% of Egypt wants to continue the peace treaty with Israel. 67% is equal to two-thirds of the population. That's a lot.

That is the finding of a new survey of 1062 people conducted by the Cabinet Information Decision Support Center - the research arm of the Egyptian cabinet.

This is truly a remarkable number given the tensions and the rhetoric that has been abounding in Egypt since January.

According to the poll only 11% want to scrap the treaty and 2% of the Egyptian population wants to revise some aspects. 20% would not answer the question.

This is very good news for Egypt and for the region.
The poll also asked Egyptians if they were willing to vote in the upcoming election. An overwhelming 87% of those asked said they will vote - as opposed to the underwhelming 18% who voted in the last election.

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Iron Dome Near Haifa
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has deployed their Iron Dome anti-missile battery in an area near Haifa. This is enormously significant.

Two Iron Dome installations are already in position along the Gaza border and more are being placed throughout Israel. This anti-missile battery system, which is totally designed and manufactured in Israel, strikes at incoming missiles with remarkable accuracy.

The point Israel is making in deploying now is that they are preparing for what may be an imminent attack by Hezbollah. Should Hezbollah attack these Iron Dome batteries are the last line of defense. And they are a very good last line of defense.

Positioning the Iron Dome around Haifa signals to Hezbollah that Israel is aware of their moves and that Israel is publically countering with defensive - not offensive, weapons.

Hezbollah must understand that saber rattling in Lebanon has consequences. They must understand that Israel takes the safety of Israeli citizens very seriously.

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Ahmadinejad Terrorism Conference
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Ahmadinejad addressed a conference in Iran about international terror. 60 different countries including Sudan, represented by President Omar el Bashir, were in attendance. Bashir is wanted by the World Court for crimes against humanity.

Ahmadinejad's address was filled with wacko assertions. He said that 9/11 was a conspiracy and if only we had the voice recorder, the world would know. He said that the Holocaust was a conspiracy.

Thinkers are never permitted to question the Holocaust, he said, and in that way 9/11 is very similar to the Holocaust.
Here are 2 of his quotes:

"If the black box of the 9/11 incident and Holocaust were opened, then some of the truth would be exposed, but the United States does not allow this."

"There are those who believe that the goal of 9/11 was to revive the Zionist regime, reinforce stability in the region, divert US public opinion from the poor economic state. In terms of reference and benefits, 9/11 is very similar to the Holocaust."

I told you it was wacko.

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Cataclysmic Implications
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified in front of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

While her testimony was not a surprise, the implications are cataclysmic.

Clinton explained why the United States is involved in negotiations with the Taliban. She called it "unpleasant but necessary." From the US point of view, the purpose of talks with the Taliban is to secure peaceful interaction between the sides.

All the Taliban want is to get the United States out - and if talks will help that along, so be it.

The problem with these talks is not the total myopia of the United States, I've come to expect that. The problem is that this paradigm can now be used to force Israel to talk with Hamas.

Logic would dictate that if the United States can talk to the Taliban then Israel should be able to speak to Hamas. But logic plays no role in the thoughts or actions of Hamas vis a vis Israel.

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Abbas May Compromise
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 24, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Word is, from a high level Palestinian source and reported in YNet, that Abbas is ready to compromise.

The Abbas compromise would be the best kind - the kind where everyone wins.

According to the report Abbas is willing to accept a partial Israeli settlement freeze and then sit down and talk with Israel.

Until now Abbas has insisted on a total settlement freeze. For reasons that are obvious to everyone who understands the region, a total freeze is very unlikely and near impossible. But a partial freeze is doable.

By accepting a partial freeze Abbas can come to the table. He can reduce if not quite eliminate the pressure upon him to declare a state in September at the UN Security Council.

This truly is a win - win situation for everyone except, of course, those die hard extremists who refuse to accept the concept of compromise. Unfortunately the compromise-naysayers are a very large part of the audience before whom Abbas has had to play these past two years.

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Hezbollah Prepping for War
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

YNET reported yesterday that sources close to Hezbollah say that Hezbollah is preparing for war with Israel.

The upshot is that Hezbollah needs to relieve the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad. You see, Hezbollah needs Assad and they want to make certain that Assad stays in power.

The West may have an urge to oust Assad, much as they are trying to do with Ghadaffi. That would signal real danger and even a crisis of existence for Hezbollah. Syria sponsors Hezbollah and a newly-placed Sunni government would not look kindly on Shiite Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is preparing to make certain that no foreign soldiers enter the region. They figure that a major distraction - like a full scale assault on Israel, would lend Assad enough time to regroup and re-strengthen and would relieve the pressure and divert attention so that their Syrian sponsor could get his country back to order.

This is a very pessimistic view of foreign affairs and conflicts. It is also very much a part of the bag of tricks that Hezbollah can and will, if necessary, use.

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Not An Arab Spring
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Meir Dagan just retired as the head of the Mossad, Israel's clandestine service.

Dagan has been making comments that have many people irked.
Last week Dagan said that bombing Iran is just "dumb." He said that an attack against Iran will also bring about attacks from Lebanon and from Hezbollah.

Then yesterday while receiving an honorary degree from Netanyah College in Israel Dagan spoke about the changes happening in the region. He warned against coining terms like "Arab Spring" and "Democratic Tsunami" to describe current events in the Arab world. He explained that these events are actually existing rifts and not democratic at all. In that, Dagan is correct.

It is customary for the head of the Mossad and for other secret agencies to maintain a cooling off period after they leave their positions. Past former Mossad directors have remained silent about policy and politics.

Dagan is different. And people are listening.

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Dylan Concert in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Bob Dylan performed in Israel yesterday. The concert was a huge success in more ways than one.

Dylan is helping to keep Israel as an important stop on the pop cultural map of the world. If stand out stars like Dylan are not afraid to visit Israel, not afraid for security reasons and not afraid of the political fallout, neither should their fans be afraid.

Dylan turned 70 in May and this trip to Israel is part of a 2 month concert tour. It was his third concert tour of Israel. His first tour was in 1987, the second in 1993. During the 1960's he visited Israel as a regular tourist.

Many pop stars come to Israel and every one of them receives enormous pressure to cancel their trips. There are organizations that make it their raison d'etre to pressure artists to cancel their trips to Israel.

Congratulations Bob Dylan for not succumbing to pressure. That means more power to you!

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US Talking to Taliban
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

President Hamid Karazai of Afghan went public announcing that both his government and the United States have negotiated with the Taliban.
And yesterday US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed the announcement.

I can see the downside of talking to the Taliban. But what is the upside?

The promise is peace.

The objective is to stop the fighting between the Taliban and the Afghans and the United States.

The reality is that it is highly unlikely that an agreement can be negotiated between the Taliban and the US and the Afghans. The sides are too far apart. Even Gates in his comments said that the Taliban will only respond to military force.

But sometimes, even in politics and diplomacy, it's the effort that counts.

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Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 19, 2011

I've been Thinking:

Temporary Prime Minister of Egypt, Essem Sharaf, has called for a postponement of the elections set to take place in September.

Sharaf made a very cogent and convincing argument. The Supreme Military Council should follow his lead.

Sharafa said that more time is needed to build the infrastructure of democracy. He said that this early election will only favor the Muslim Brotherhood. He continued that the country voted to amend the constitution by an overwhelming 77% - but time is needed to make those changes.

The Muslim Brotherhood, on the other hand, wants elections ASAP.
The Supreme Military Council says they are not taking a side - but by not taking a side they are siding with the Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood is the best organized political group in Egypt. They represent about 20% of the country and in a parliamentary election they would fare very well.

An early election could mean the first and last free election in Egypt and the end of any democracy.

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Women Call for Right to Drive
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has done its best to insulate itself from the political movements and the unrest enveloping most of the Middle East.

The tensions in Saudi Arabia are clannish and tribal - they are also religious with rivalry between Sunni and Shiites. But now something interesting is happening in Saudi Arabia.

Traces of political freedom are emerging and that is a phenomenon worth addressing.

Traditionally, women in Saudi Arabia have very few rights. Yesterday a call went out asking women to take the wheel. Women, who are not permitted to drive, were asked to drive. One twitter report had only woman violating the law and driving before sunrise - a law that is strictly enforced by the very fierce modesty/morality squads.

Saudi Arabia is very much a leader in the Middle East and it is essential that the West understand the real Saudi Arabia. It is an extremely conservative monarchy. It is against all issues of equality. It will act to protect itself.

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Russia & China Defend Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

China and Russia have signed an agreement.

They are in sync on a very important issue of foreign affairs.

Both Russia and China agree that Iran should have the right to develop nuclear energy. They will propose a UN Security Council resolution to that effect in the next few weeks.

Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Part of the treaty enables all member states the ability to develop nuclear energy. But all the development must be transparent.

The problem with Iran and with Russia and China's point of view is that Iran refuses to permit unfettered access of the technology.

That's not playing by the rules. But then again, when did Iran ever play by the rules.

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Iran Launches New Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran launched another satellite. This one is called the Rasad 1.
The satellite was 100% home grown and Iranian TV covered the launch.

The world has focused on Iran's nuclear development. Their space program should also be a prime focus of our attention. The Iranian space program has flown under the radar for years - most of us do not realize how dangerous the program really is.

The Iranian space program illustrates two important factors.

# 1: These satellites spy on the entire world. These are not weather satellites or agricultural satellites. They are spy satellites.

#2: There are only a scant few countries in the world that have this or similar technology.

Also important to note is that launching a satellite uses the same exact technology used to launch non-conventional weapons.

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EU Parliament Says No To Palestinian Declaration
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Jerzy Buzek, President of the European Union Parliament, was in Ramallah yesterday.

In his press conference after meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Buzek said that it might be "more dangerous" to attempt a unilateral declaration of Palestinian Statehood in September at the United Nations General Assembly.

The EU Parliament is notoriously anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian. So when Buzek tells Abbas not to declare, you can bet that the message will be heard and will be well considered.

Buzek is letting us all know that Europe is no longer supporting the Palestinian Declaration of Statehood. And he is getting Abbas off the hook.

Abbas knows the declaration is a bad idea and he needs a reason to tell his people why he may need to withdraw the plan for unilateral declaration. This announcement by the EU Parliamentary President may actually be a blessing - for everyone.

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Blogger Hoax Uncovered
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A very popular blogger from Syria named Amina Arraf turns out to be a 40 year old American living in Scotland named Tom MacMaster.
The hoax was unveiled yesterday.

Tom, using the persona of a lesbian in Syria named Amina, had been chronicling the oppression sponsored by the Syrian regime.

MacMaster admitted that he created the character and blogged as a lesbian Syrian woman in order to educate the world about the abuses of the tyrannical regime in Syria.

The blog smacked of professional propaganda from the outset. That should have sounded the warning bell for all those who read it.

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Iran Hosting A Nuke Conference
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran opened a two day conference yesterday - a conference on nuclear non-proliferation. The conference is called "Nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None."

This is a classic example of the pot calling the kettle black. The real purpose of the Iranian conference is to call attention to Israel's nuclear program - which has always been cloaked in secrecy.
Representatives from 40 countries are in attendance at this conference. It is Iran's second conference on nuclear non-proliferation. The first took place just a few months ago. That conference, like this one, was called "nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None."

Iran has mastered the art of worldwide public relations. The Iranians are hosting a conference on nuclear proliferation and pointing their fingers at Israel in order to deflect peoples' attention from their own nuclear program.

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Bibi to Europe
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is off to Europe for a few days. The purpose of the trip is to convince European countries to back off with their support for the declaration of a Palestinian state in the UN General Assembly in September.

It is about time. Israel should have been out lobbying Europe against the declaration since the Palestinians first announced their September plan.

Netanyahu will visit Italy, Hungary, Rumania and Poland.
These countries are not the most powerful in Europe, but they do set a tone. If Netanyahu can secure these countries he will be well on the way to mounting a significant diplomatic beachhead.

Israel has already made serious headway with France, Germany and The United Kingdom. Actually, it was the Palestinians who helped Israel by declaring a unity government with Hamas and the PA.

The declaration with Hamas has made the new PA a pariah in Germany, France and England.

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Arab Mob Swarms Settlement
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday a group of 200 Palestinian Arabs carrying clubs, iron chains and Palestinian flags stormed the West Bank settlement of Gaon HaYarden.

The handful of settlers who tried to stave off the attackers survived until the Israeli army came to rescue them. But not before the attackers burned the tent used for prayer and all the prayer books.

The settlement is illegal. The attackers were bent on doing serious harm. This entire scene evinces historical parallels of Arab mobs massacring Jews in their homes.

Before the creation of the State of Israel there was a long history of Arab thugs targeting Jewish settlements, Jewish homes and Jewish pedestrians.

The greatest shock surrounding this invasion is that almost no voices came out and condemned the Arab mob. Where are the leaders of the free world, leaders who should stand up and cry out against such hatred?

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Abbas Does Not Want UN Declaration
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

An adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made public that the Palestinians feel trapped in the September UN declaration.

The Palestinians are victims of their own publicity. At this point, given their current read and analysis of the situation, a unilateral declaration of statehood would hurt - rather than help, their cause.

The problem Abbas faces now is: how does he climb down from the high tree that he so publicly scaled. If he backs out he risks a serious credibility issue.

Momentum has been building and many countries are pushing the Palestinian leadership to declare statehood. But now, finally, Palestinian leadership recognizes the diplomatic and political risks that taking the issue to the UN General Assembly in September entail.

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White House to Boycott Durban Conference
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has announced that they will boycott the United Nations Racism Conference scheduled for September. This conference smacks too much of the 2001 Durban Conference.

The Durban Conference was a hatefest. Its purpose was to slam Israel in the international arena. Practically no attention was paid to any of the real human rights challenges.

Ever since 2001 the United States has not participated in any of these conferences. They have made no secret about why they are not participatory. These conferences against racism and for human rights go to great lengths to point the finger at Israel - almost to the exclusion of any other violations in the world.

Since the United States walked out on Durban, the West has said enough. Now Western countries want to see the agendas and the resolutions as well as the speeches before the conference.
Conference coordinators have not yet acquiesced to that request.

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PA Agenda Push UN Declaration
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 8, 2011

I'm Predicting:

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat says that the Palestinians people must focus on getting Palestine to become a full member of United Nations.

This announcement is a clear declaration of intent.

The Palestinians are moving ahead at a full gallop in their attempt to get full recognition from the United Nations. They are willing to jeopardize almost all of their collateral with the United States and other Western countries in order to attain this aim.

In the end, they will not achieve their goal. The United States will certainly veto the move in the Security Council.

Without the Security Council it is impossible to get approval.

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Egypt Will Try Mubarak
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On August 17th Hosni Mubarak and his two sons will be put on trial.

They will be prosecuted for corruption and for the deaths of 18 protesters, killed during the revolution that ousted Mubarak
Prosecuting all three Mubarak men may result in blow back from the Egyptian street. The street is the Arabic equivalent of the vox populi or the voice of the people. The people of Egypt may be satisfied with placing the Mubarak sons on trial, but there may be political problems with placing the senior Mubarak on trial.

The sons are young and they are seen as opportunists while the father is seen as a sickly old man who spent decades fighting for Egypt.
If the current leadership overplays their hand it may come back to hurt them.

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Iran Parliament Condemns Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Parliament voted to bring Ahmadinejad to court on Wednesday.

This all comes about as a result of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. The Iranian parliament is siding against Ahmadinejad and with the Grand Ayatollah.

In their last squabble Ahmadinejad fired the minister of oil and then took his portfolio. The parliament agreed that this act by the president was a serious power grab. They determined that the grab was illegal and now they recommending that he be tried for his actions.

In an earlier incident the Iranian president fired the minster of intelligence only to have the Grand Ayatollah rehire him immediately. Then Ahmadinejad boycotted three of his own cabinet meetings because he knew the old-new minister would be present.

The situation does not bode well for Ahmadinejad.

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Situation Getting Worse in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The situation seems to be getting even more bleak in Syria.

Human rights activists in the town of Rastan are reporting that 41 people died on Wednesday - including a 4 year old girl. This is a huge escalation in violence against the protestors. On Tuesday it was reported that snipers had assumed positions on roofs and on other high points in the town.

Due to international pressure, Syria promised that those who have been arrested will be let free. At the same time, they are clamping down on protests and organizers. This is all a typical Syrian double act.

Make a public gesture for one group and then in private, move in the exact opposite direction.

Classically Syrian.

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Egypt: No Gas to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has refused to pay Egypt the new adjusted natural gas prices they are asking. Now Egypt is refusing to deliver the natural gas.
Since the ouster of Mubarak, the new Egypt has upped the price of natural gas for Israel. They also demanded more money from Spain and

Spain capitulated and agreed to the price.

Israel has threatened to take the dispute to international arbitration. The Egyptians are not afraid because the precedent was set when Spain agreed to pay the higher price.

Egypt feels they are justified in increasing their prices and bringing them come closer in line with the market value.

Egypt claims that the natural resources are theirs and that they can increase the prices whenever they deem it necessary.

Israel countered that a treaty and a deal were both mutually agreed upon. The treaty should not be abrogated and the price of natural gas should not rise.

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PA's New Plan For Statehood
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are still going to try for UN recognition at the General Assembly. The new session begins on September 15.

But there is a new twist to their plan. The Palestinians have changed their strategy and now they want to embarrass the United States. They want to go to the Security Council and make certain that the US will use its veto.

Afterwards, the Palestinians will go to the General Assembly and ask for recognition without the Security Council. That recognition will have no legal authority, but it will be very well received.

The PA will have accomplished two goals. Their first success will be embarrassing the United States. The second will be achieving their political ends in the General Assembly where the vast majority of the member states will support the declaration.

As Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in his cabinet briefing: The General Assembly could declare that the world is flat and there is nothing that we can do about it.

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Cracks in Iran's Leadership
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been grabbing even more power. And the Grand Ayatollah, also known as the Supreme Leader, is not happy.

The Supreme Leader has been sending Ahmadinejad both private and public messages expressing his displeasure. And Ahmadinejad has continued to ignore the Grand Ayatollah firing ministers and taking over their portfolios.

Most recently Ahmadinejad fired the oil minister and took over his responsibilities.

Why is this critical? It shows a blatant disrespect for the Supreme Leader. Last month there was a face off when Ahmadinejad fired the powerful minister of intelligence. When the Supreme Leader reappointed him immediately Ahmadinejad chose to boycott his own cabinet meetings. That situation was resolved only when Ahmadinejad capitulated.

These internal tensions show the cracks in the Iranian system. They prove that the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad hold very different views on issues of power, control and world affairs.

The Supreme Leader is showing a lack of faith in Ahmadinejad. In Iran, the final word on all issues, including politics, belongs to the Grand Ayatollah.

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Russia Defends Libya @ G-8
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Group of Eight, aka the G-8, is meeting in Norway. G-8 is an organization composed of the 8 most economically advanced nations in the world.

G-8 member nation Russia has expressed serious doubts about how Libya is being handled. The Russians have said that after two months they still see no progress and that the airstrikes are counterproductive.

They say that the tactics used by NATO are really just a way of siding with the opposition against Ghadaffi.

President Sarkozy of France countered by explaining that Ghadaffi must leave and that getting him to leave is a principle of the operation.

Russia is expressing a growing discontent with the NATO operation in Libya, the operation which began as a no fly zone. Russia has actually invited Ghadaffi advisers to Moscow and briefed them on how to progress in their defense against the Nato attacks.

I will not be surprised if Russia brings this issue before the Security Council to investigate the status of the Libya operation and to find out whether the Nato air strikes are outside the bounds of the resolution.

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Islamic Brotherhood Embraces Dictatorship
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood will boycott the massive rally being organized in Cairo where the plan is to once again take over Tahrir Square, rally for reform and push for democratic change.

The organizers are students and they are finally integrating democracy into their message. They realize now that the current regime is plain and simply a military dictatorship.

So why is Islamic Brotherhood boycotting the rally?
Because The Brotherhood prefers the dictatorships over democracy.

The Islamic Brotherhood knows that they have a chance to flourish under the new dictatorship. They know that under a democracy their entire world view is threatened. They hope that the dictatorship will continue and they plan to pressure the dictatorship into allowing them to pursue their continued public activities.

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Iran & Egypt Reach Out
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The foreign ministers of Iran and Egypt met yesterday to begin thawing out their frozen diplomatic relations.

For the past 30 years Egypt and Iran have had no diplomatic interaction. Relations broke off after Anwar Sadat was assassinated by a Muslim extremist.

Iran immediately named a public square after the assassin. At that point the Egyptians broke off all diplomatic relations. Iran continued to show their true colors by celebrating the death of the iconic Egyptian leader and lauding his assassin.

Now the new Egypt is reaching out to the Persians.

It does not appear that the thaw will be instantaneous. It will be a slow, gradual process. Iran and Egypt are not exchanging ambassadors quite yet, but that will happen with time.

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Response to Bibi Speech
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's 50 minute speech to the joint Houses of Congress was a great success. Even the White House was "content" with the speech.

It is interesting knowing who was not OK with the speech, who was upset.

Hamas was upset. After the speech Hamas announced that the PA should rip up all their agreements with Israel.

Spokespeople for the PA were very upset. They said that they have no partner for peace. They said that Netanyahu misrepresenting reality. They said that the Israeli prime minister declared a slew of preconditions for negotiations.

Let's talk about the Palestinian idea of "reality." Over the past week it has become clear that the Palestinians do not want to negotiate. They want to skip to the end and get the final prize not only without negotiations but also without giving anything to the Israeli and without re-educating their people about peace.

That simply cannot be done. Peace with Israel requires all of these things. It may take some time until the PA grasps that reality.

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Documents Show Bin Laden Figurehead
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Here's a news flash: the trove of documents found in the bin Laden compound, the chache of material tying bin Laden to current terrorist operations - came up empty. Nada. Gornisht. Nothing in it. Nothing to it.

The White House tried to create mystique around bin Laden. They said the material was filled with links to his operational invovlement, they said that his grasp extended throughout the al Qaeda terrorist web.

That tale ran contrary to everything we know about bin Laden over these past few years - even before 9-11.
Osama bin Laden was a figure head, Osama bin Laden was not an operational leader.

That does not diminish the impact of his death, it just puts it into perspective. Bin Laden is dead, that is good. But terror and terrorists and terror networks live on.

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Jewish Contributions to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

These are pivotal weeks for the President of the United States. The Middle East speech delivered by Obama on Thursday in which he called for a return to the '67 borders hit the American Jewish community like a tsunami.

There was nothing gained by the comments. A lot was lost. Including that one line about borders in his speech will cost the president in terms of support for his re-election bid.

The Jewish community does not have a voting voice strong enough to swing an election or topple an incumbent president , they amount to a tiny percentage of the vote, but their contribution to the campaign - especially in soft money, is enormous.

The numbers are staggering and hard to accurately count or confirm, but it is safe to say that at least 30% of the Democratic money comes from the Jewish community. The International Herald Tribune and the American Council for Judaism put the Jewish contributions to the Democrats at the 60% level.

A loss of even 10% of those donors is a huge hit for the president.

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Not What but How
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

I re-read the new Obama foreign policy speech six times.

I was hoping that I missed some nuance or some detail ... I did not.

The problem with the speech is not what was said but that it was said.

Everything in the speech was known. The administration wants the framework of the Palestinian state to be based on the '67 borders. Land swaps would enable settlement blocks to remain in place.
The problem with the speech is that the president knew that it would be a public embarrassment for Israel.

The reaction from Netanyahu was predictable. Why create tensions?

The president of the United States must know that Israel is willing to give, but the White House has not yet even figured out how to handle the PA/Hamas unity government. How can Obama ask Israel to make concession when the PA is leaning further away from cooperative agreements by power sharing with Hamas?

The situation has not been advanced by this speech. To the contrary.

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Obama Speech Re-Run
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was nothing really new in Obama's speech on the Middle East. What was touted as a major policy speech that would shape the region and cause people to rethink their conceptions of the Middle East was a simple re-run.

The president said nothing new. He blamed both Israel and the Palestinians and took Hamas to task for not recognizing Israel.

About the current stalemate he said to Israel: you are continuing with your settlement policy and that policy cannot continue if you want to pursue peace.

And to the Palestinians he said: you walked away from the table and isolating Israel in the United Nations or elsewhere will not create a Palestinian state.

As expected, Obama asserted that now more than ever is the time to come to an agreement.

The biggest problem with this so-called new policy speech is not what was said, it is that it was all a repeat of things that have already been said. Anyone who expected anything else from this speech does not understand this president. This is the speech that should have been expected, composed and delivered by a president who definitely does not understand the Middle East.

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Iran & Kuwait Renew Relations
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Kuwait have exchanged ambassadors - again.
The exchange happened yesterday, closing a long and tense diplomatic chapter.

The unraveling of diplomatic relations began several years ago when Kuwait accused Iranian diplomats of spying. In April of this year, they expelled three diplomats. In response, Iran expelled three Kuwaiti diplomats.

And then both countries withdrew their ambassadors.

Now, a month later, diplomatic relations are renewed. Kuwait's press statements called Iran one of the best neighbors in the region.

This breakup and quick reconciliation is typical of the Middle East. Quick diplomatic rage subsides and everything returns to normal ... or at least to what appears to be normal.

Kuwait does not trust Iran on any level - especially on the diplomatic level. Iran does not like Kuwait one bit and neither country intends to forget their differences. But in public, they will both play nice.

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Mubarak to Make a Plea on TV
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian daily newspaper al Shorouk reported yesterday that former leader Hosni Mubarak is going to make a taped public apology which will air on Egyptian TV.

According to the report Mubarak will ask the Egyptian people to remember that he was a soldier who fought for Egypt and who defended Egypt. He will say that many of the mistakes he made were due to poor information.

Mubarak will ask for amnesty for himself, his wife and his two sons.
Mubarak is playing for popular support from the all important Egyptian street. Without that support the prosecution will have to move ahead and prosecute the whole family.

As of now it seems that popular opinion is sympathetic towards Mubarak and his wife Suzanne. Mubarak is 83 years old and many Egyptians believe that Mr. & Mrs. Mubarak should not be prosecuted if for no other reason than their age. It also seems clear that the street does not share the same symapthy for the two sons of the former dictator.

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Iran Send Flotilla to Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran launched a flotilla yesterday. Two ships and 120 people are headed for Bahrain.

The purpose of this flotilla is to lend support to Bahrain, the predominately Shiite island nation which is controlled by Sunnis.

Iran is trying to alter the facts on the ground in Bahrain.
Iran wants to empower the 80% Shiite population of Bahrain to continue their revolt against the 20% minority Sunni leadership.

Iran says of course they need to send a flotilla to Bahrain. They say the Saudis brought soldiers to support and prop up the leadership of Bahrain to make certain that the Sunnis stay in power.

Iran is on a mission to save Bahrain - and to sway the masses to continue a revolution that they both support and sponsor.

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PA Assurances?
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Prime Minister's Office of the Palestinian Authority announced that Israel will be transferring the tax money that had been held up ever since the unity agreement between Hamas and the PA was announced.

Originally the Israelis had said that they cannot pass money to a Hamas government, even if the money actually rightly belongs to them, if the money was going to go to be used for attacks against Israel. How could they?

The PA assured Israel that the money would not be used to attack Israel. They had received assurances, they said. What assurances? The PA has been incapable of reigning in Hamas since elections of 2006 when Hamas won the popular vote.

The problem is not just the direct use of money ... it is sponsoring an agency or a group that supports terror and that is now their partner.

Given the new agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority it is hard to believe that Hamas will toe the line. It is hard to believe that the PA will be able to divorce itself from Hamas' actions and activities.

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Revenge For Bin Laden
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Revenge for the killing of Osama bin Laden has begun.
On Friday Pakistani Taliban perpetrated a suicide attack at a paramilitary target in Pakistan killing 80 people and wounding hundreds.

"It's the first revenge for the martyrdom of ... bin Laden. There will be more," Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan said by telephone.
Taliban will attempt to continue to try to unleash massive attacks to prove their superiority and to frighten locals into submission and silence. They want to make certain that locals do not to cooperate with authorities and do not collaborate with the United States.

The Taliban who perpetrated this terrorist attack were only loosely connected to bin Laden but they affiliated seriously with his ideas and goals. Most importantly, they realized and understood that their fates were shared with his.

If bin Laden was safe they were safe. Clearly, the Taliban are doing whatever they can to make certain that the tide does not shift against them.

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Interrogating Mrs Mubarak
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been interrogating Suzanne Mubarak, wife of ousted tyrant and ex-president Hosni Mubarak.

Suzanne is now hospitalized having suffered a heart attack.

Interrogators began speaking to her in the family home in Sharm el Sheik. She was then brought to Cairo where the interrogation continued. Then they decided to put her in prison for 16 days and continue the interrogation from there. That is when and where Mrs. Mubarak suffered her heart attack.

Egyptian interrogators are hoping to find out how much money was embezzled and when and where it was placed. The big question is what, if anything, she knows.

If interrogators press too hard they might actually kill both Mubarak and his wife. Then Egypt will be burying the secrets along with the bodies.

And this may be where they are right now.

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Egypt Arrests Woman
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Abeer Fakhry is a Christian woman living in Egypt. Yesterday, Abeer Fakhry was arrested by the Egyptian military prosecutor .

What were her crimes? Why was she arrested?

The Egyptian army prosecutor arrested Fakhry for being the cause of all Christian/Muslim tensions in Egypt. This woman is the reason Christians are being slaughtered in Egypt. Or so he says.

Fakhry is the Christian woman who, supposedly, converted to Islam and was then, supposedly, kidnapped by the Christian Church and brainwashed back to Christianity.

The prosecutor is investigating the case.

Imagine: A country's military prosecutor actually asking someone what their religion is and toward which culture they genuflect.

Imagine: Egypt's Muslims can tolerate someone converting to Islam, but not converting out of Islam.

Abeer Fakhry never converted from Christianity to Islam and she never had to convert back.

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Hamas Doubts Palestinian State
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday one of the senior leaders of Hamas in Gaza, Mahmoud al-Zahar, predicted that the Palestinian state will not be declared in September.

Al Zahar expressed skepticism about the entire process, asking very practical questions about borders and refugees. In general, he concluded that those backing the proposal and supporting the proposal are simply placating the Palestinians.

One of the biggest issues for Hamas is who will lead the Palestinians. Declaring a Palestinian state is the pet project of Palestinian Authority PM Salam Fayad. But Hamas will never tolerate having Fayad remain as prime minister. So they are hammering away at the entire proposal.

The official PA media outlet, MANA, reported that Abbas will be both President and prime minister and that he will have two deputy prime ministers - Fayad from Fatah and Ismail Haniyah from Hamas.

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Iran is Faking History
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is fabricating history. Iran is promoting the theory that the United States is using bin Laden's death as a tool to raise their profile in the world of international diplomacy.

Iranian intellingence minister Heyder Moslehi announced that Iranian intelligence sources have confirmed that Osama bin Laden had been dead for years before the United States claims to have killed him in Pakistan. Moslehi asks why the White House would lie and why they buried bin Laden at sea.

The minister, so he says, has a file that confirms bin Laden's death years ago. This news from Iran will support the crackpots, conspiratorialists and even home grown American crazies.
The Iranians are feeding the world disinformation - and there is no shortage of people willing to eat it all up.

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Syria Turns Up the Heat
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Syrian army and police went on house-to-house and door-to-door searches arresting people they claim to be leaders of the anti-government protests.

Hundreds of people all across Syria were arrested. The operation was particularly intense in the four cities which have been most active in anti-government demonstrations: Homs, Banias, Deraa and Damascus.

This new attack carried out by Bashar Assad and his henchmen is designed to accomplish several goals. They intend to get the leadership off the streets and away from their cell phones and computers. And they want to frighten anyone who might think of stepping into the newly vacated shoes of leadership.

It will take a few days to know how effective the action was and to know if Syria will continue with this policy of mass arrests.

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Bahrain to Lift Emergency Law
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain announced yesterday that they will be lifting their state of emergency as of June 1.

Technically, that means that the highly restrictive rules preventing protests and enabling the army and police to arrest anyone for almost anything will be lifted.

What it really means is that the leadership of Bahrain, together with the leadership of Saudi Arabia, feel that the entire internal crisis will be calmed in the next 3 weeks.

The Saudis are the real power behind the Bahraini royal family. The tensions are actually sectarian. Sunni versus Shiite.

This tension between Sunnis and Shiites is centuries old. In today's world that tension pins the Saudis against the Iranians.

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Mass Murder of Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

More than 10 Christian were murdered in Egypt. 2 churches were burned in Cairo. That's just yesterday and today's count.

Muslim rioters attack Christians and the world remains silent. More Christians have died in Egypt these past few days than people in Syria or in Libya during the protests and riots. But the world is silent.

Muslims in Egypt are on the warpath - on the religious warpath.
This round of Christian murders began with a rumor that Christians kidnapped a Christian woman who had married a Muslim man. According to the rumor, the woman was being held in one of the churches where the Christians were brainwashing her back to Christianity.

Egyptian Muslims set out to find this woman and along the way, they murdered Christians and burnt Christian property including churches.

The rumors were not true. There was no such woman and no such kidnapping. But there are two burned churches and over ten murdered Christians.

Since Christmas the murder of Christians has become a near daily event in Egypt. I do not see an ending to these hate crimes.

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Natural Gas Wars
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Arab media is hopping and bopping with a story about Qatar supplying Israel with below market price for natural gas. As much natural gas as Israel desires.

This media coverage is very important for Israel. Egypt has been threatening to abrogate their peace treaty and the Egyptians have already said that they will be doubling the cost of natural gas going to Israel.

Since the beginning of the revolutions in the Arab world, aka the Arab Spring, Israel has begun to draw down its dependency on Egyptian gas. What started with 40% dependency is now close to only 25% and would drop totally if this story with Qatar is true. After all, Qatar holds 15% of the world's natural gas supply and talks have been ongoing between Qatar and Israel on this very subject.

This might just be spin and the story may not prove true at all. Or it may be pay back by the many countries interested in leaking a false story in order to get even with Qatar.

Qatar owns al Jazeera. And al Jazeera has been fomenting the Arab Spring. What better way to hit Qatar than by casting them as friends of Israel.

We will wait and watch closely.

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The New Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court sentenced al Adli, former Egyptian Minister of the Interior, to twelve years in prison.

He was found guilty on several corruption charges.

Adi was one of the most feared and despised people under Mubarak. The Minister of the Interior is in charge of the police and it was the police that were so hated during the revolution of January and February.

This case sheds important light on the new Egypt. The new leadership wants to put significant distance between itself and the past government. They are implementing a crackdown on corruption and they are punishing the old guard for past mistrust and misuse of power.

The problem is that the new guard is also left over from the old - and the division between the two will get very blurry if they prosecute more than just a handful of people.

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Problems with PA Unity
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas signed a unity agreement with Fatah yesterday. That pact is a potential game changer for the entire region.

Things did not go easy. The signing was put off while the fighting took place.

First Abbas refused to have Khalled Mashal of Hamas sit next to him.

And Mashal originally thought that he was hosting and delivering the main speech. So Abbas made it clear that he was the one who would be explaining the deal and giving the long speech.

And finally there was a major dispute about whether Abbas was simply the head of Fatah or, as he wanted to be referred to, the President of the Palestinians. The conflicts were resolved.

Abbas won on every point. But it all goes to the essential point - this unity will not last for long.

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Will The US Fund Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State of Hillary Clinton told Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu that the United States will not suspend aid to the Palestinian Authority even if the unity government between them and Hamas goes through. That's right - will not suspend aid.

If Clinton is true to her word, it would be a major shift in US policy. Continuing to send aid to the Palestinians after the establishment of a unity agreement would mean that the US would be funding a terrorist group, Hamas.

It would be a breach of policy and it would be against US law. The law is very clear that terror groups and affiliates cannot receive funds.

Unity with Hamas is precisely why the first Palestinian unity government, after the first and only Palestinian election, lost its United States funding and other Western funding. No Western government can justify giving funds to any government connected to Hamas.

Congress will go ballistic if the White House continues to give aid to the Palestinians.

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Who is Supporting Bin Laden
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

We have to evaluate responses to the US action against Osama bin Laden. Those who are upset with the United States need to be identified and their motives must be exposed.

There have been three significant voices speaking out against the killing of bin Laden. The most vociferous belongs to Hamas, next comes a very significant group of Palestinians in East Jerusalem and finally, Iran.

All three groups claim that the US overstepped its role and violated international law. They describe the action as a premeditated cold blooded murder. They call the attack on bin Laden an attack on all believing Muslims.

For Hamas and Islamists in East Jerusalem, this logic makes sense. Bin Laden was their hero. Bin Laden challenged the US and the West. Bin Laden fought for the Muslim cause.

But Iran was a target of bin Laden. Iran and Osama bin Laden were sworn enemies. Why is Iran upset by the demise of Osama bin Laden? Because the Machiavelli dictum is correct, because "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Like Osama bin Laden, Iran, Hamas and other Islamists are united in their hatred of the United States and the West. What unites them is stronger than what separates them.

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Ahmadinejad Buckles Under Pressure
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad has caved in to pressure from Iran's Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

Last week Ahmadinejad boycotted two of his own cabinet meetings.

Yesterday, he capitulated. The history leading up to the conflict between Iran's # 1 and # 2 most powerful men was clear and the resolution was predictable.

Two weeks ago Ahmadinejad fired his Minister of Intelligence from an extremely powerful and integral position in the power structure of Iran today. Almost immediately afterward, The Supreme Leader reappointed him. In order to challenge the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad refused to attend his own government planning meetings because the old/new intel chief was going to be there.

There is no way that Ahmadinejad was going to win this conflict. The Supreme Leader is in charge of political activity in Iran.

According to Iranian law Khamenei, The Supreme Leader, has the final say - in everything.

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Egypt to Try Mubarak
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian Weekly al-Ahram reported that Hosni Mubarak faces either execution or life imprisonment.

The new Egyptian Minister of Justice, Mohammed al - Gindi, was quoted as saying that if convicted of embezzlement and complicity to murder, as well as corruption, the former leader of Egypt could be executed.

From the substance of the interview as well as its tone, it seems clear that the current Egyptian leadership blames Mubarak for decades of corruption.

It Egyptian leadership determines that Mubarak ordered the police or the army to fire on protesters there is no doubt that Egypt's once great leader will be convicted and he will be sentenced.

The question begging to be asked is this: Will Mubarak be tried in a court of justice or has the outcome already been determined?

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US Policy in Syria is a Misplay
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US foreign policy toward Syria is fraught with misplays and misunderstandings.

The United States actually improved ties with Syria last year hoping that the Syrians would become players in the effort to drive a wedge between their country and Iran.

After four years without an ambassador in Syria, the United States returned its ambassador in February of 2010. Once again, the US was hopeful that Syria would change and was rewarding the Syrians for anticipated good behavior.

How can "hope" and "optimism" be considered foreign policy?

By its very nature foreign policy is the art of realistic assessment and understanding. When the United States is unrealistic in its assessments the greatest power in the Western world makes mistakes -like it is doing in Syria and did in Egypt.

Sometimes, the United States gets lucky. Bringing Syria before the UN Human Rights Council turned into an important victory for the US and for the West. On Friday, the UN Human Rights Council voted on a resolution that narrowly condemned Syria. Of the 47 members, 26 voted to condemn, 9 voted against condemnation, 7 abstained and 5 refused to even attend.

The US could have lost the vote. And had they lost, it would have been a resounding loss for freedom against tyranny, oppression and thugs.

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PA-Hamas Deal Means No Declaration
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and Fatah have agreed to unite.

That unity will be a nail both in the coffin of the Israeli peace talks and in the declaration of a Palestinian state.

Israel cannot negotiate with a Palestinian unity government that includes Hamas. And the US cannot condone Hamas's participation in a state.

So, too, the Western powers. Yesterday Germany announced that they cannot condone a Hamas government of any kind. Hamas must recognize Israel's right to exist and Germany will not tolerate anything short of that. Even if they do not come out as publicly as the Germans, every other Western government feels the same way.

All the diplomatic progress achieved over the past four months by the Palestinian Authority has been destroyed over night.

There is no way that either the United States or any other Western state can recognize a new Palestinian state if Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist.

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Egypt Erases Mubarak's Name
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 27, 2011

I'm Predicting:

Egypt has implemented policy erasing the name Hosni Mubarak from all official institutions, buildings, streets, parks and just about everything else.

It was only a matter of time before this decision was instituted and it will be only a matter of time before the entire history of Egypt during the reign of Mubarak is completely rewritten.
Hold on to your history books.

You will want to compare the old history texts to the new ones that come out in the next month or so. Do not expect to see the word "revised" on them. Mubarak will be demonized and everything he backed or supported will be condemned. There will be an entire rewriting of the relationship between the West and Egypt and between Israel and Egypt. We are already beginning to hear significant Egyptian leaders and pundits advocating the repudiation of the peace treaty with Israel or at least revisiting the terms of that treaty.

What is most fascinating to me is that Mubarak followed in the footsteps of Anwar Sadat. A direct line can be traced between Sadat and Mubarak in domestic and foreign policy and in attitude toward the Muslim Brotherhood.

And yet, while the Mubarak imprimatur is being wiped out, the history of Sadat has not being rewritten at all - in fact, Anwar Sadat is a considered an Egyptian hero.


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Sarkozy Agrees with Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. They had a very friendly and positive meeting.

Sources from inside the office of president Sarkozy said that the French are in favor of the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state and it seems like France will come out in vociferous support of the declaration.

In response to questions following their meeting, Abbas said that it would be illogical for the United States not to support the Palestinian declaration. The Palestinian leader pointed out that, by now, most of the world is in clear support including the Western Europeans. Abbas said that the French president gave him clear and absolute support for the move to declare a Palestinian state.

In essence the only people on an international level who are not in favor of the intended Palestinian declaration of statehood, the only countries to actually reject the idea of a declaration, are the United State and Israel.

And pressure is really building on the US and Israel to buckle.

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US - Israel Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt that Obama and Netanyahu are feeling the pressure of the Palestinian diplomatic blitz.

Palestinians are gathering more and more support for their declaration of statehood and that is not something that neither the United States nor Israel want. Both the US and Israel want a negotiated settlement - not a declaration.

A negotiated settlement puts the issues on the table and offers the ability to resolve those issues to the satisfaction of both parties -a unilateral declaration removes that ability.

Each leader has a plan up their diplomatic sleeve and the plans will most likely be unveiled next month when Obama and Netanyahu meet in Washington, DC. Even if the two agree to fold their plans into one, it is highly unlikely that the Palestinians will accept the new plan.

The Palestinians do not want details resolved. That will hurt them in the eyes of their own constituents, in the eyes of Muslims around the world and in the eyes of their other supporter across the world.

Whatever plan the United States and Israel present will be based on compromise - and compromise, to the Palestinians means giving in and giving in weakness. Palestinian leadership does not want to be seen as weak.

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McCain Visits Libya
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday US Senator John McCain made a surprise visit to Libya. He visited Benghazi and spoke to press, to local leaders and to leaders of the National Transition Council. The Council is the de-facto government of the opposition headquartered in Benghazi.

McCain has been an advocate for intervention in Libya from the very beginning. He wanted the no fly zone up immediately and was one of the loudest voices in Congress conveying that message.

In his speech in Benghazi McCain referred to the opposition fighters as rebel and as heroes.

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McCain points to the need for US involvement in Libya based on US inaction during Rwanda and Darfur. McCain actually advocates having US troops on the ground in Libya.

Meanwhile, President Obama has okayed the use of US Predator Drones in Libya.

That said, it is not so clear that the United Nations Security Council resolution sanctions this type of action. The UN Security Council only sanctioned a no fly zone and humanitarian aid - not US drones.



US - Israel Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

France's ambassador to the UN Security Council announced in a discussion on Thursday that France and several European colleagues are considering recognizing the Palestinian state.

They assert that this would be a great boost to the peace process.
Of course, this is also a blow to US peace efforts.

Now President Obama and the White House have begun their own new push for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Secretary of State Clinton and the president are pressing for face to face meetings -hoping to get their plan, which has been shelved for so long, back on track.

In diplomacy, like in politics, there is often strength in numbers.

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The New Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt arrested their former energy minister, Sameh Fahmy. F other former bureaucrats from the ministry were also arrested.

Why were they arrested? Because according to the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, Egypt was supposed to guarantee a certain amount of natural gas at a certain price. According to the current prosecution, as well as to many politicians now vying for popular support - the deal is tantamount to treachery.

Actually, this deal is the backbone of the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel. Israel gets about 40% of its natural gas from Egypt.

These gross exaggerations, saber rattling pronouncements and prosecutions are creating a tense environment that is spinning out of control in Egypt. A full blown anti - Western, anti-Israel front fueling full scale attacks against Israel is overtaking Egypt.

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Finding the Truth in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is very difficult to know what is really happening in Syria.
Yes there are protests. And yes, oppression tactics are in use by the police and the army against the protesters.

The difficulty is in confirming reports.

Foreign journalists have been expelled. There has been a massive crackdown on all media outlets and all forms of media. Even the "new media" has been curtailed. That leaves us with only a series of messages and no real way of confirming them.

For instance, the other day Assad promised to end his emergency policy of government. He swapped his cabinet, promised reforms and pledged to liberalize his secret police and curtail their powers.

Yet, 300 people still came out to protest in Suewada about 80 miles south of Damascus.

Reports came out of Syria saying that the police brutally beat the protesters with batons. There is simply no way to confirm the story.

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Terrorists Confess
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel arrested the two terrorists responsible for the brutal murders of the Fogel family.

These are the terrorists who murdered their victims on a Friday night as they slept - parents Udi and Ruth and three of their children, sons Yoav 11 and Eldad 4 and their 3 month old baby daughter named Hadas.

The terrorists, 18 and 19 years old, and were caught by the Israeli police, the Shin Bet and IDF investigators. They confessed and said that they had planned to martyr themselves in the act.

Both terrorists are from the Arab village of Awarta which neighbors Itamar. Awarta's chief, Kais Awad said: "I have major doubts over the Israeli findings and demand an international inquiry. They're children, it isn't possible that they committed this awful act."

Both terrorists admitted to being part of the PFLP, but said that they developed and implemented the plan on their own.

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Muslims Protest Against Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt, Islamic groups protested the appointment of a Christian as a regional governor. This is part of the problem in Egypt today.

The protesters rallied outside the government buildings in the Southern city of Qena blocking roads and obstructing railroad lines. They prevented trains from leaving Qena and Luxor, the famous City of the Pyramids.

All this happened as a result of the military council installing twenty new governors, people who had not served under and have no ties to Mubarak.

But none of that matters. A Christian is a Christian in the eyes of Egypt.

Shockingly, the Christian world is standing still and silent. The Pope is silent and there have been almost no Christian voices raised in horror and protest over this act of religious abuse.

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Iron Dome Is Not the Answer
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It seems that Hamas is dedicated to ruining the Passover holiday for Israelis - especially those Israelis who live in close proximity to or within missile range of Gaza.

Yesterday, two GRAD rockets were launched from Gaza and fell in Ashdod, Israel's second largest sea port. Numerous sensitive and dangerous import products arrive in Ashdod.

At this point Israel has chosen to take a defensive posture regarding the increase in rocket launches from Gaza. Israelis are embracing the Iron Dome Missile Defense system which is stopping about 1 in every 8 rockets. This is an important mental shift and much is being written about the success of the Iron Dome.

But the Iron Dome will not solve the problem.

An offensive approach would be to attack terrorist roots in order to control the problem as opposed to swatting away the rockets after they are shot - and assuming that the target will always be able to withstand the attack.

No doubt Iron Dome is important. But more important is to focus on the problem and to eradicate, isolate or at least limit the threat.

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PA US Tensions About Statehood
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between the Palestinian Authority and the United States have emerged over the past month. It all stems from the pressure and the outright demands the PA is placing on the US.

The Palestinian Authority wants to declare statehood in September.

They want a clear statement by the United States - especially the President or the Secretary of State, that the Palestinian state will lie within the 1967 borders.

The PA reached some very important international milestones this past week. The UN, the World Bank and the IMF all published reports stating that the Palestinian Authority has the requisite infrastructure to establish a state. In addition, the PA has distributed its 3-year plan which will require $5 billion in donations to spring board the state.

The Palestinian Authority wants America on board.

The United States wants a Palestinian state to emerge out of negotiations - not unilateral declarations.

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A 3 State Solution Not 2
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

PA Prime Minister Salim Fayyad has begun to make public his economic plan for Palestinian statehood.

Fayad has distributed his plan to donor nations scheduled to meet in June. He hopes to collect $5 billion in order to put his three-year plan into place. The plan is to present statehood to the General Assembly of the United Nations in September.

By all estimates the decision will fly through the United Nations.

The Fayyad plan is very detailed. He lists dollar amounts required to build, stimulate and create a stable economy that will become self sufficient over time. The declaration of statehood and recognition by the world is pretty straight forward. The PA will ask that a Palestinian state be established in the post '67 West bank and Gaza areas - the terminology used by the Palestinian Authority is the post 1967 occupied territories.

The major problem with the entire plan is that it speaks in detail about Gaza - both in terms of economic growth and the bureaucratic role it will play. But Gaza is not controlled by the PA. Hamas controls Gaza and they threw the Palestinian Authority out in a coup.

This plan would create a 3-state solution, not a 2-state solution. There would be one Israeli state, one Palestinian state in the West Bank and one Hamas state in Gaza.

Three, not two.

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Iran Blames US & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Iranian foreign ministry issued an official statement about the unrest in Syria. The Iranians are blaming Israel and the United States.

This should not surprise anyone.

Ramin Mehmanparast is the spokesman for the foreign ministry. He said : "What is happening in Syria is a mischievous act of Westerners, particularly Americans and Zionists."

The Iranians never call Israel by its name. They always say the "Zionists" or the "Zionist entity." Instead of saying Israel, the leaders of Iran insist on referring to the 19th century nationalism called Zionism - a European ideology and phenomenon, which has no place in the Middle East.

Iran refers to this external ideology in order to discredit Israel's ancestral, historical and biblical claim to exist.

There is a method behind every utterance and every action taken by Iran. We must always remember that.

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Egypt Arrests Blogger
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A blogger in Egypt was sentenced to 3 years in prison for blogging.
Yes this is the new Egypt - and its very much like the old Egypt.

Maikel Nabil Sanad, a 26 year old, wrote in his blog that the army has been brutal. He was not writing history.

Sanad was writing about daily abuses against Egyptians at the hands of the army. It was the same army that stood still during the revolution and that ousted Mubarak.

The army stood silently by because they were ordered to do so. The leaders of the army under Mubarak were disillusioned and wanted him out. But they continue to rule the country just like he did - with an iron fist.

On Sunday Sanad was sentenced without his lawyer. The only reason we know any of this is because the information was leaked to human rights groups who came out and blew the whistle.

Who ultimately rules? The internet rules, even in Egypt.

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Goldstone and Danon Libel in the US
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Knesset member Danny Danon had serious meetings with lawyer friends in the United States.

Danon and his friends are filing papers against Judge Richard Goldstone for libel against Israel. They think that they have a case because in his now famous recant in the Washington Post, Goldstone referred to the tremendous damage his report did to Israel's reputation.

This, the group asserts, is the definition of libel.

The problem is that according to US law, you cannot libel a country. Adding to the difficulty of this case is the knowledge that it is very difficult to win a case of libel when a politician is involved. The United States heard a case of libel where then Israel Defense Minister Ariel Sharon claimed that Time Magazine libeled him - that Time clearly knew the facts and nevertheless, printed the opposite.

Sharon won the case against Time but was awarded only $1 in damages. It was a pyrrhic victory. It proved the principle, but it also proved that despite overwhelming evidence, US courts do not sympathize with foreign political figures.

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Abbas To Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas travelled to Egypt. It is his first visit to Egypt since the uprising. The purpose of this visit was manifold.

. to cement the relationship between the new military leadership and the Palestinian Authority

. to make certain that Egyptian and Palestinian leadership see eye to eye on Hamas

. to make certain that Hamas does not get a fair shake at any upcoming negotiations and unity talks

. to make certain that Egypt understands the role of the PA within the context of pressure by the United States to move ahead in a peace deal with Israel

This new government in Egypt is a wild card for everyone. They have not yet made their POV known or clearly defined a stance on any issue.

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Hamas Attacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Izz a Din al Qassam took responsibility for the rocket that struck a school bus in Israel yesterday. This group is officially the military wing of Hamas.

Hamas terrorists targeted a school bus and then they sent 45 other rockets into Israel in a single day. Israel responded with a helicopter raid on 9 targets including 3 tunnels in Gaza.
Tensions are increasing between Israel and Hamas. The possible dangers are obvious to all.

Sources say that despite Israel's attacks on Gaza, they are not planning another Operation Cast Lead 2008-2009 which was a ground and air offensive into Gaza.

Sources say that immediately after the school bus attack Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak called the army and instructed them to hit Gaza's terror network. They did.

And after Hamas lobbed 45 rockets at Israel - they declared a cease fire.

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Ghadaffi's Letter to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Libya's Muammar Ghadaffi sent a letter to President Obama on Monday April 5th. The rambling 3 page message containing Ghadaffi's demands was sent to the State Department. The letter was immediately forwarded to the White House.

The letter was not edited, Ghadaffi wrote it almost on his own with some help from his inner circle. At this point in the conflict Ghadaffi no longer controls a diplomatic corps to convey his message and finesse his style.

But some of the mistakes were intentional and totally missed by the commentators.

The letter refers to President Obama as "Our dear son, Excellency, Baraka Hussein Abu oumama." The only mistake in this pun is that the O should be capitalized.

Baraka Hussein Abu Oumama is translated as The Blessed Hussein father of the people. The expression in Arabic, Ouma, refers to the Arabic people.

The letter refers to the US handing over the campaign to NATO "following the withdrawal of America from the crusader colonial alliance against Libya."

It may be laughable, but this is no joke.

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Assassination From the Air
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a car on its way to the Port of Sudan airport with two people inside was blown up.

Some kind of very quiet and very low flying airplane came in from the Red Sea, followed the car and then shot the missile that blew it up. The plane turned back toward the Red Sea and disappeared.

This was probably the act of Israel - Israelis have conducted such attacks in the past in Sudan. The Israelis have even taken out weapon convoys en route.

Of course it is not clear that Israel did it this. They have not commented on the attack and they never will. But Israel had no comment on the other attacks either.

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Iran & Israel Cooperate in Japan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the most amazing thing happened in Japan.
Israelis and Iranians were handing out aid - together.

This is the first time in the recent past that Iranians were able to work together with Israelis in any effort. Even international sporting events have been scuttled because the Iranians refused to even engage in athletics alongside Israelis.

The post tsunami situation in Japan is no place to engage in sectarian violence and everyone is showing restraint due to the enormity and gravity of the situation.

This is a very big story and the Iranians will be embarrassed by it.

When the story goes viral or when the Iranians realize that it has become public knowledge the Iranians will put the brakes on this cooperative effort.

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Iraqi PM Says Attacks Unfair
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki was extremely critical of the
West's attacks on Libya and on Ghadaffi.

Maliki said that the intervention against Ghadaffi was totally out of proportion and that there are other places that are far worse than Libya. Maliki was saying that the international forces selectively chose Libya, while ignoring other leaders who abused peaceful protesters.

The back story here is that Maliki is a Shiite.

Maliki was referring to Bahrain where the Shiites are being persecuted by the Sunnis and the Saudis are aiding the Bahraini royal family while all the while the protesters are being persecuted.

Politics, religion and personal agenda all merge into one in the
Middle East.

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Goldstone's Recant
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 3, 3011

I've Been Thinking:

Richard Goldstone's recant in the Washington Post was "too little too late."

The damage perpetrated by his investigation, report, finding and the suggestions of Israel's human right abuses and crimes against humanity were so devastating that a mere mea culpa could never clean the slate or un-ring the bell.

In his opening paragraph Goldstone writes that "had he known then what he knows now" it would have been a very different report. Well.

Why didn't he know? I certainly did.

The original Goldstone Report will stand and it will continue to be used by anti-Israel activists and parties. His recant is not part of UN protocols, it was merely a public display in the Washington Post.
Even if a Goldstone apology makes it to the front pages of major newspapers around the world it will never counter the damage that was done over the weeks of front page coverage given the Report - coverage that included fabricated myths and stories of Israel directly targeting civilians.

I admire Goldstone's desire to come clean and finally tell the truth. Perhaps now he can sleep better at night, perhaps he is looking to re-write his own obituary, but the damage done to Israel by the Goldstone Report can never be repaired.

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Defections from Libya
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been said about the defection of Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa. He is in an undisclosed safe house in London.

Some analysts are saying that this is a huge blow to Ghadaffi, others are saying that many more senior advisors and aides have defected.
Koussa was an appointee. Yes, he has some important intel but he ran in order to save his own skin. He left Libya while he was still able to leave and he was brought to London in order to trade his information. Koussa was Ghadaffi's intelligence chief for over two decades. He is responsible for numerous terror attacks against the West.

As for the reports of other defections ... Al Jazeera reported that many other close aides defected - but one of those who men who was reported to have defected is saying that he has not defected. The chairman of Libya's national oil corporation is saying here I am, I haven't gone anywhere.

This goes to a central question of reliable information coming out of Libya. Almost no info can be confirmed independently. No one knows what is really happening in Libya.

And then the Vatican came out yesterday with the claim that in Tripoli 40 civilians were killed in the air raids conducted by the West.

This cannot be confirmed either.

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Arab League's More Active Role
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League has offered to run interference. The league has volunteered to play moderator between two warring Palestinian power parties, the Palestinian Authority who control the West Bank and Hamas who control Gaza.

Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, told one of the leaders of Hamas in Cairo yesterday that "The Arab League is willing to host any Palestinian meetings to push forward national reconciliation efforts."

He continued: "There is no justification whatsoever for the continued Palestinian division." Moussa asserted that Arabs want to "unify Palestinian ranks ahead the current challenges."

The Arab League and Moussa have started to take a more active role in the happenings of the Middle East. In the past the Arab League has basically responded to issues.

The prime reason for the change now is that Amir Moussa wants to position himself as a Pan Arab leader, he wants to gain notoriety and help power his own presidential candidacy in Egypt.

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Qatar: Opposition in Libya is Legit
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Qatar declared that they will recognize the opposition in Libya. Qatar will recognize the people who are running a rebellion against Libya from the Eastern port city of Benghazi.
Qatar is the first Arab country to turn their back on Libya politically.

The significance of the act cannot be understated. The Arab world never liked Ghadaffi, but they appreciated his in your face tone to the West. He was the bad boy. Despite his brutality and tyrannical style he was the perfect instrument to shoot back at the West.
This could be the start of a trend in the Arab world.

We need to track other countries and monitor their responses. Will anyone else jump on the band wagon? Psychologically, it is helpful for the opposition to see this - but for Qatar it is very dangerous.

What happens if Ghadaffi does not fall?

Qatar could be skewered.

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Bomb On Egypt-Israel Pipeline
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The natural gas pipeline that runs from Egypt to Israel and Jordan was shut down for an hour this morning.

Why? Because defense forces in Egypt had to dismantle a very large explosive that was attached to the line and ready to explode. This is the second pipeline attack since the protests in Egypt. On February 5th an explosion severed the line at a relay station.
Israel gets 40% of its natural gas from this pipeline, a result of the 1979 Camp David Peace Accords.

This new attack illustrates two diverse elements of the new era in Egypt.

The first demonstrates the lengths to which the anti movement will go: there are powers that want to sabotage any relationship between Egypt and Israel - even when the best interests of both countries are being served.

The second demonstrates the clear point of view of the military junta: Egyptian military leadership both wants to and works towards providing for the safety of Egypt's natural reserves infrastructure - and that includes exports to Israel and Jordan.

This is very important and very telling. It means that in real terms, not much has changed in Egypt.

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Hamas Launches Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 25, 2011

I'm Predicting:

The Middle East is heating up.

The crisis in Libya is getting worse. Syria is turning into an arena for unrest. Jordan is seeing serious protests.

And as all that is happening, Hamas in Gaza has resumed lobbing rockets into Israel on a daily basis. Yesterday alone 7 rockets were launched into Israel.

I expect that this will continue.

I expect that protests will continue throughout the Middle East. I expect that Hamas will continue to launch their bombs and that Israel will increase their retaliation.

Israel has been searching for terrorists and using helicopters to seek out and attack those terrorist leaders responsible for the bombings and the terror.

One can debate whether or not there has been a relative calm out of Gaza over the past few months. No matter which side of the debate you fall on, at this point one thing is perfectly clear - a new status in Israeli/Palestinian relations has emerged.

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Terror in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A horrific terror attack took place in Jerusalem yesterday. Over 40 wounded and a 60 year old woman killed.

The explosion took place at a central location, a popular gathering spot where commuters and school children await transportation on their way to work and school.

The story was not front and center in the US news - Libya still occupies those headlines.

The last terror attack in Jerusalem took place about 150 yards from the site of this attack. That was in 2008 when terrorists armed with machine guns invaded a school and murdered 8 students.

Murdering 60 year old women and killing students in school is the modus operandi of these terrorists. Those who support the terrorists claim that this bombing is the direct result of Israeli actions in Gaza against the Palestinian people.

Here is the problem. Israel is targeting specific people, leaders in Hamas who have planned and executed attacks and are planning future attacks against Israel. That is called self defense.

Murdering innocent people can never be considered self defense.

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Syria Kills 6 Protesters
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Today Syrian police shot and killed six protesters in their encampment in a mosque compound in Deraa, situated in southern Syria. That brings the total number of deaths to ten. Many more have been arrested.

For nearly a week the protests were quiet. Now the violence is intensifying. Syria's protesters have but one demand. They want the powers of the Syrian security police severely curtailed.

It seems that there is no real danger to the stability in Syria.
It looks like the protests are confined to Deraa.

But one must always remember that Syria is just like other Middle East totalitarian countries. The protests in Deraa could easily ignite in Damascus. And if the protests gain momentum the strong arm of the dictator will be felt. And when that happens the result is always the same - the death rate skyrockets.

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China & Russia Have Second Thoughts
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and China have been extremely critical of the air strikes conducted by international forces against Libya.

Both countries have gone public saying that they are against any strikes and Vladimir Putin has actually called the entire process "crusader-like."

Russia and China are now second guessing their decision to abstain on the No Fly Zone vote in the UN Security Council. Had they "no voted" the resolution would have failed. Abstentions go to the majority -"no votes" are not counted.

The vote was 10 "for" with 5 abstentions. In addition to China and Russia the other three abstentions were India, Germany and Brazil.
This behavior is typical of Russia and China. Now they can play the protector card. They are protecting non-Western, third world, countries against the aggressive, colonial acts of the United States and her allies.

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Coming to Ghadaffi's Aid
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The world is divided: Those on the side of world intervention in Libya and those uneasy with world forces intervening in the internal affairs of another country.

The Western world has finally come to the aid of opposition forces and of those Libyans caught in the middle of the battle between Ghadaffi forces and opposition forces.

At the same time some major world players are taking exception to this intervention, players who side with Muammar Ghadaffi. Leading the pro-Ghadaffi brigade is Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, a fellow thug with long standing links to the Libyan leader.

When push comes to shove, thugs stand by thugs.

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After the No Fly Zone
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the UN Security Council passed the No Fly Zone resolution over Libya, several important questions must be answered.

What will the UN do when Libya takes to the air?
Will UN forces hit strategic air sites while they are on the ground?
How will Libya respond to the attack?

As weak as Libya may be, relative to US airpower, they still have capabilities that can wreak terrible harm on soft targets in the region. Libya will interpret all pro-Western countries as targets and that includes their ships and their shores.

The No Fly Zone should have been instituted at the very beginning of the conflict, it should have been instituted through intimidation ... now, it is too late.

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Protests in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For the past two days there have been mini protests in Syria. This is revolutionary. There has not been an anti-government protest in Syria in decades.

When the first of 40 people gathered outside the Interior Ministry on Tuesday, nothing really happened. The police watched and no protesters were hurt. But then the next day, Wednesday, there was another protest.

This time 150 people came to demonstrate and this time the police dispersed them. And then the police continued dispersing the demonstrators through violent, aggressive, beatings.

The US State Department released an official statement asking the
Syrians not to violently disperse the demonstrators.

There are two predictable elements to this scenario - Syria's violent reaction and the United States politely asking Syria to stop.

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Weapons Intercepted On Way to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel intercepted an arms shipment on its way to Gaza yesterday.
The Victoria, a German registered ship, is owned by a Lebanese citizen. The weapons on that ship could have literally changed the Middle East equation.

There were 50 tons of weapons on that ship. There were highly sophisticated Chinese C-704 missiles - land to sea missiles with a 30 mile range. One of these missiles sunk an Israeli gunship during the Israel's war with Hezbollah.

There was also an Egyptian raid yesterday. The Egyptian army captured 5 trucks filled with weapons going into Gaza. These trucks were filled with rocket propelled grenades, mortars and explosives.

From the cache of weapons that have been captured we should assume that many more weapons has slipped into Gaza without interception.

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Saudi Arabia Enters Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has transported 150 armored personnel carriers and 50 other vehicles including buses, ambulances, water carriers and jeeps into Bahrain.

In total, about 1000 Saudi soldiers made their way into Bahrain yesterday. The troops drove across the 16 mile causeway (bridge) connecting Bahrain to Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi military contingent made its way to the Sunni area of Riffa, an area which houses not only a military hospital, but also the royal family of Bahrain.

Bahrain is a pawn in a much bigger game.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are in conflict. The battle is between countries but it is just as much a battle between Sunnis and Shiites. Iran still claims Bahrain to be theirs and a whopping 70% of the Island is Shiite. The Saudis are in this to protect Sunni interests i.e. the leadership of Bahrain.

The unrest is getting more violent. The unrest is sponsored by Iran.

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Mass Murder Cold & Ugly
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

What kind of man brutally murders a 3 month old baby? What kind of activist stabs an infant to death?

And murders a 4 year old Israeli named Eldad and his 11 year old brother Yoav. And their parents.

This crime ranks with the most gory of all murders in the Western world. These murderers are so obsessed with their political goals that the lives of anyone outside their circle, children included, are thought of only as targets to be destroyed.

These terrorist are members of a cult. These terrorists are brainwashed. These terrorists are taught that Jewish lives are not human lives. They are taught that Jewish life does not have the same worth.

Charles Manson and his murderous group terrorized in the same way. They brutally murdered families in the name of their cause. And the terrorists were so obsessed by their cause that they did not even understand that mass murder was wrong.

There will be people who justify the actions of these terrorists and celebrate the murders. People who hand out candy and who take pictures of themselves rejoicing in the murder of children.

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Using the Petroleum Reserves
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is talk about the cost of oil per barrel skyrocketing because of the unrest in the Middle East. There is even talk about tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). And President Obama said that to keep prices down he might just do that and tap into the SPR.

That would not be wise.

The SPR is not a cushion to bolster the economy. The SPR is there for emergencies. The SPR needs to be there when there is a shutdown or near total oil embargo, when the United States can get oil no other way.

That's when the SPR will save us.

There are about 583 million barrels of oil in the SPR, that is its present capacity, although several years ago capacity was 727 million barrels.

The problem is that we can only access about 4.4 million barrels a day from the SPR - that might sound good, except that the United States consumes over 21 million/day.

That is why the SPR is for emergencies - not just for a rainy day.

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Saudi Unrest
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Saudi police opened fire on protesters in a predominately Shiite dominated area. Today promises to be even more intense.

Shiites comprise about 40% of Saudi Arabia and neighboring Iran is also vastly Shiite. The Saudi monarchy fears Shiite unrest and the call for reform. The Saudi royal family fears that they may be the next power in line to fall.

In advance of what might come, the Saudi government has issued serious warnings announcing that protests will not be tolerated and that protesting is now illegal.

And despite it all, for the past several weeks there have been postings on Facebook gearing up for a day of protests to be held on March 11th.

The back story is that the royal family of Saudi Arabia is an oppressive monarchy - it is oppressive and regularly tramples on human rights and women's rights. But the Saudi royal family is also the back bone of oil production and if they wobble under this wave of protests the cost of oil could easily hit $300 a barrel.

The Saudi royal family will fight hard to hold on to their position and their power.

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Dealing with Thugocracies
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

What can be done to stymie the despots? That is the question leaders worldwide should be asking themselves and each other.

Before the answer can be given, the problem must be properly defined. Part of the problem lies in the way the world is organized. Power and objectivity are lost in international organizations. And part of the problem lies in the unfortunate reality that many western nations coddle thugs and tyrants out of a desperate need to obtain much needed natural resources.

Libya sat on the UN Human Rights Council. Eventually, the Libyans were unceremoniously removed over their treatment of protesters at the beginning of the uprising. But what were they doing on the Human Rights Council in the first place?

Now Syria is lobbying to get onto that same Council. Syria, a country with a worse record on human rights than Libya.

While this is happening, Iran was appointed to the UN Commission on the Status of Women. This is the same Iran that publically executes women for marital indiscretions, for adultery and even for begin raped.

One of the answers is to praise and reward those international powers that stop rewarding thugocracies. The UN and its many offshoots must be shown the value of not empowering tyrants.

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Chirstian Murdered in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

1000 Christians were marching in a solidarity procession yesterday in Egypt when violence broke out with aggressive Muslims and one of the Christians was killed.

The Christians were marching to protest the firebombing of their church. They were trying to create solidarity and underscore the need to protect the Christian minority in Egypt which has been massacred, threatened and left unprotected.
Muslims in Egypt were upset that the Christians were taking to the streets.

The Christian world has remained silent about this atrocity. Where is Christian leadership? Where is Christian condemnation? Where is the Christian world demanding a just investigation into the incident?

Any and all leaders who pay lip service to the rebellions in the Arab world should be standing up and shouting that Muslim crowds killing non violent protestors is simply - unacceptable.

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UK Upgrade PA Diplomatic Status
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United Kingdom is upgrading diplomatic relations with the Palestinian Authority.

England will upgrade their status from "delegation" to "mission." That means that the PA will be permitted to fly their flag outside their mission.

The big issue, however, is not the benefits that the PA will get, but that the British have not gotten anything in return for the upgrade.
Diplomatic upgrades of this type should not simply be gestures of good will, they must be rewards for serious commitments and proven accomplishments Once a country upgrades their diplomatic status, downgrades only happen after a huge crisis.

The PA has not changed their stance at all about the peace process. They have not even agreed to sit down and resume direct talks with the Israelis. At a minimum, England should have demanded that the PA come back to the negotiation table with realistic requests and expectations.

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Hamas: Protests Good for Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has embarked on a major campaign. They are engaging in an attack against all sitting Arab regimes.

The leader of Hamas, Khaled Maashal, undisputed head of the Hamas politburo came out yesterday behind protesters around the Arab world. He said that ousting the leader of Egypt after decades of being the dictator was the best thing for the Palestinian people.

He explained that Mubarak was pro West, pro Israel and pro Palestinian Authority and that toppling his regime was a boost to Palestinian independence.

Hamas is saying that all Arab people, especially the Palestinians, need to take a stand against their leaders. They need to stand up against the West and join forces against the established dictatorships. They are saying that the people need to fight for their causes.

Hamas is, quite obviously, excluding themselves from dictatorial, oppressive regimes

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Saudi Arabia: No to Protests
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has decided to be proactive.
The Saudi interior ministry announced that protests in their country will not be tolerated.

Saudi leadership has calculated that clamping down is the best way to stymie protests and stabilize their rule.

Having watched what happened in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and having witnessed the response of the United States, the Saudis are willing to take the risk of alienating the US and antagonizing the protestors.

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Chavez & Arab League Proposal
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has broached a plan to the Arab League and the Libyans to initiate dialogue between opposition forces and Ghadaffi's forces.

The Arab League liked the idea and started exerting pressure on Ghadaffi today.

There was contact between Venezuela and Libya and between the Arab League and Libya about the dialogue and it even looks like there is some possibility of an agreement. The only problem is the opposition - the opposition rejects any dialogue at this time.

One of the reasons the Arab League, Libya and Venezuela are of one mind is that this dialogue would place Lula, the former president of Brazil, as the intermediary. And that would totally marginalize the role of the United States.

These parties will do their best to oust the US and the West. But there is a counter to this view. The fact that opposition forces are not interested in talking keeps the United States in the game,

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No Fly Zone
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the House Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday.

Clinton asserted that the "no fly zone" that everyone is talking about is not as simple to implement as it may appear. Libya is not Iraq, she explained. And Clinton is 100% correct. A "no fly zone" means no Libyan plane or helicopters ... and the US and only the US flies over Libya to maintain the safety of the region and of the skies.

Libya has far better air-force and far more sophisticated anti-aircraft systems. That means that the US cannot safely fly over Libya to police and protect the "no fly zone."

Libyan anti-aircraft can easily pick off US fighter jets and helicopters. The air-force and the anti-aircraft batteries seem to still be under Ghadaffi's control or managed by his mercenaries.
This greatly complicates matters and that makes it dangerous for American fliers.

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Yemen & the Elders of Zion
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Salah President of Yemen convened a press conference yesterday. The president said that the unrest in the Middle East is caused by the United States and Israel.

Salah went on to say that there is an operational center in Tel Aviv dedicated to creating unrest and disrupting countries throughout the Middle East.

Salah is working the long standing history of conspiracy theories that run rampant throughout the Middle East where rumors suggest that Israel and the US control everything in the world.

The vitriol mimics the infamous Protocols of the Elders of Zion where Jews, in this case Israel, are responsible for all the evil in the world.

I have yet to hear anyone of important condemn the presidential pronouncement. That is truly telling. No one has condemned Salah. No one has asked Israel or the United States could even remotely be responsible for these events. No one.

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Price of Gasoline & MidEast Unrest
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The price of oil per barrel has been going up and up - a natural outcome of the unrest in the Middle East. But over the weekend something changed - now oil prices are dropping and dropping. The price began creeping below $100 a barrel and is now at $97.
And yet, the price of gasoline continues to increase even as the price of oil goes down.

There is obviously a calculus that takes place determining oil and gas prices, a calculus that includes costs like refining and delivery. But we all know that the bulk of the price of gasoline is the cost of crude oil per barrel.

Bottom line is that the unrest in the Middle East is having a very clear impact on the cost of oil and the cost of oil has a clear and direct impact on the entire world. The trickle down effect touches everyone.

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Tripoli is The Key
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tripoli, the capital city of Libya, remains the stronghold of Ghadaffi forces.

Libya is filled with history. In Arabic Tripoli is actually called Tarablus - there is no pronunciation for the letter "P" in Arabic, all "P"s sound like our "B"s.

In Latin Tripoli means three cities, the three unified cities of Oea, Sabrata and Leptis Magna. This is where the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius' great triumphant arch is erected. Marcus Aurelius ruled from 161 -169.

For ancient Rome Libya was both as important and as difficult to control as it is for the West today. The ports of Libya are perfect for ships and export trade.

The only way the Romans could conquer the area of Libya was by defeating the local tribes. And so it goes today. If Libya's local tribes can bring themselves to unite, they can bring down Ghadaffi.

If they cannot bridge their own differences Ghadaffi has a better chance of remaining in position. Local unity or disunity is what will determine the future of Libya.

The history of Libya is still being written. There is still much to happen.

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Alternative Gov in Libya
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Protesters in Libya have begun taking steps towards reorganization and control.

Bengahzi, the second largest city in Libya with about 650,000 people, has been in the hands of the protesters for several days now. Ghadaffi loyalists have been ousted and in their place an interim city government has been appointed.

Bengahzi protesters have appointed former justice minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil as interim governor and charged him with creating a transitional power team until Ghadaffi can be removed and new leadership put in place. This was reported by the Daily Mail.

Jalil is the minister who resigned from the Ghadaffi government over the oppressive techniques used by the dictator against the protester.

Jalil is the minister who announced to the world that Ghadafffi was personally responsible for the Lockerbie terrorist attack.

The situation in Libya could easily slip into a full scale civil war between the well armed Ghadaffi loyalists and the protesters. The best chance for the protesters is good organization. Building an infrastructure of leadership so that the people of Libya can see and feel that some semblance of normalcy can emerge from the alternative to Ghadaffi is a crucial first step in the right direction.

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Diplomats Abandon Ghadaffi
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The international diplomatic community has been busy condemning Ghadaffi and Libya.

In New York, the United Nations Human Rights Council heard from Libyan diplomats who, in a moving and powerful display of unity, renounced Ghadaffi and took the side of the protesters.

In Geneva, at UN headquarters, there was unanimous condemnation of Ghadaffi even from countries that traditionally defend the Libyan thug and even from countries that regularly stomp on human rights.

Pakastani Ambassador Zamir Akram, speaking on behalf of the Organization of the Islamic Conference which is composed of 57 Muslim nations from around the world, said "Muslims will no longer tolerate inequalities and injustice."

He said: "A new dawn has come."
He said: "The rules of the game have changed. Those who do not embrace it will be swept away." The Pakastani ambassador was referring to freedom.

This is a revolutionary shift in international diplomacy. The question now is what will follow after the revolution - the rise of new dictators or real freedom.

History suggests that dictators are on the horizon.

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PA Comes Out Against the US
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since last Friday the official PA media machine has been extremely critical of the US. Palestinian Authority newspapers, radio and TV have conducted a full blown frontal public relations assault on the United States.

The Palestinians are livid because, on Friday, the US vetoed their resolution to condemn Israeli settlements at the UN Security Council.

Interestingly, it did not seem to matter that immediately after the vote both United States Ambassador to the UN Dr. Susan Rice and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton contradicted themselves. Each in her own words commented on how awful, destructive and illegal Israeli settlements are to the region.

Palestinians are deeply wounded and they are lashing out at the US. Almost every leader of the PA has gone public to announce that $460 million/year does not mean that they must follow US dictates and that the US has cast aside human rights for exclusive, parochial, domestic parameters.

Prepare for serious diplomatic repercussions.

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Momentum is Shifting in Libya
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was a crucial day in Libya. Momentum began to significantly shift from Ghadaffi and to the protesters.

Right now, the Eastern parts of Libya are more or less in the hands of the protesters while Tripoli is still controlled by Ghadaffi loyalists.

Triploi is blockaded. Ghadaffi loyalists are keeping all the protesters out of the city. Only 6.5 million people live in Libya and of that number, 2 million of them live in Tripoli.

Protesters need to sustain their crowd in the streets and to stand up against the security forces and their weapons. Without that momentum, the masses will buckle under the threat and fear factor of the notorious Libya leader, a fear that causes every resident to quake.

This change in momentum is a huge shot in the arm for Libya's protesters.

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Libya Is An Important Asset
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Libya is an important strategic country.
While Libya never was a friend of the West, in the end you could always count on Libya to answer either the call of duty or the call of money.

As a leader, Ghadaffi could be persuaded through the proper economic incentives and yet, he was constantly leading the Arabic charge against the West. In his own eyes Muammar Ghadaffi was the Desert King of the Arab World.

Libya is a formidable military force to contend with. They have a very serious conventional stockpile of weapons. They traded-in their weapons of mass destruction for respectability and a seat at the international table.

Libya is also an economic force. They are the 11th largest exporter of oil in the world and the 18th largest producer. That makes Libya a player in the world market trailing just behind Venezuela. Libyan port cities are perfect natural ports for the oil tankers that take
their product around the world.

What happens in Libya reverberates around the world.

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Ghadaffi is Not In Total Control
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The stakes are rising as high as the tensions in Libya right now.
Yesterday the air force bombed targets. The protesters say that the targets the air force bombed were protesters. The air force says that they bombed ammo caches.

And there's more. Two Libyan pilots defected and landed their planes in Malta.

Rumors abound as to where Ghadaffi is holing up.
Oil companies are closing their operations.
Non essential personnel are escaping the crisis.

International pressure is mounting. The Libyans at the UN have asked Ghadaffi to resign. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has urged him to keep the calm. A major Sheik of the Muslim Brotherhood, Yusuf Qaradawi, announced on Al Jazeera that whoever can kill Ghadaffi should take the opportunity.

There is no way this can end well.

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Libya Unrest Escalating
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 21,2011

I've Been Thinking:

Now it is Libya's turn - it's the protesters versus the army/police.
Hundreds, probably even more than hundreds, have already been killed in Libya. And it's not stopping, abating or improving - it's escalating.

The leader of the tribal community in eastern Libya announced that if the army does not stop oppressing protesters he will shut down the oil export cities. That act would grind Libya's economy to a halt. It would increase the stakes and that is something Muammar Ghadaffi will not permit - not without a huge fight.

Ghadaffi has been walking a thin line. The Libyan leader has not yet begun a massive massacre, but as the situation heats up he will intensify his own attacks against protesters and their supporters.
Libya is in the middle of a tug-of-war.

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Ghadaffi Is Not Mubarak
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Libya is in the throes of conflict and unrest.

Libya's dictator, the man who has ruled his country for the past four decades, has not been able to squelch the uprising. Libya's protests are part of the wave of unrest rampaging across the Middle East.
In Libya, Ghadaffi rules with an iron fist. His patience is being tested - so is his judgment.

Press reports suggest that hundreds have been killed by sniper fire, not by riot police, in Benghazi the second largest city in Libya.

The hospital there confirms the reports but only through an anonymous source for fear that they will bear the brunt of retaliation by the military and the government.

In the city of Bayda, 1000 miles east of Tripoli, there are unconfirmed reports that the protesters took over the city and hung two police officers in public. All communication from that part of Libya is out and there is no possible way to verify the reports.

Ghadaffi will not follow in the path of Mubarak, that should be made clear. Ghadaffi has learned from what happened in Egypt. He is still a ruthless and powerful dictator, a true thug who will not have his hands tied or his voice silenced by the United States or by any other Western influences.

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US Vetoed UN Vote
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US vetoed the Security Council vote sponsored by the PA against settlements.

Let me explain the logic of why the US is so upset with the PA over the UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlements.

Logically, it would seem that the US would sponsor such a vote and certainly not veto it. Here's the back story:

United States Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, spent hours trying to talk the Palestinian Authority out of the decision. Even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama invested hours talking to the PA. But why?

Most importantly, the White House is against the "UN-ification" of the issue. Israeli/Palestinian disputes should be resolved either face to face or with a third party, certainly not by way of the Security Council. That's diplomatically politic.

Then it gets diplomatically personal. Taking the settlement issue to the Security Council is meant to embarrass the US and force her hand. It is an ugly ploy by the Palestinians to try to publically humiliate and weaken the US in the context of world politics.

The PA plan will not work, in fact, it will backfire. Obama has already told the Palestinians that US/PA relations will suffer because of this ploy.

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Libya & Bahrain Learned From Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and all the other thugacracies of the world looked on as events unfolded in Egypt. They took notes. They learned important lessons. They learned a lot from Egypt and Tunisia.

In order to survive they need to find a brutality balance.

The cost/price of freedom has gone up significantly.

Libya and Bahrain saw how the police and army were relatively calm in Egypt. Libya and Bahrain will walk a better balance and they will not be afraid to kill more protesters than did Egypt - not so many as to pull more people to the protests yet not too few so as to stimulate more protesters.

Libya, Bahrain and then all the other thugocracies will try to find the middle ground - that means just enough killing and brutality to put down the protests.

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Obliterating Mubarak's Name
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Mubarak Children's Hospital in Gaza was built in 1990 by Egyptian businessmen. Today Hamas changed the hospital's name to Tahrir Hospital.

Tahrir translates to mean liberation or independence. Tahrir Square is the place in Cairo in which the protesters gathered to protest.
This is just the first of many renamings that will be taking place.
Hamas is the Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt and it was the Muslim Brotherhood that assassinated Anwar Sadat, Hosni Mubarak's predecessor and mentor.

Hamas hated Mubarak and now they are jumping at the opportunity to expunge him from their midst.

In the meantime it is rumored that Mubarak is not taking his medicine and is likely to die in his palace at Sharm al Sheikh.

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Fleeing Tunisia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Since the overthrow in Tunisia and the ousting of their ruthless dictator, Ben Ali, the country of Tunisia has been in disarray.
The people of Tunisia are fleeing for their lives. The situation after the coup is very bad. There is lawlessness and economic crisis.

Now people are doing everything they can to leave. All those who can leave legally have already done so. Now thousands are fleeing illegally. They flee any way they can. Sometimes the results are tragic.

Italy says that 5000 dead Tunisians have washed up on their southern islands.

Regime changes often result in disorder, crisis and mass hysteria.

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Palestinians Replace Cabinet
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The events in Egypt have had their impact across the Middle East. Palestinian leadership is feeling the pressure as much as any other totalitarian regime.

The Palestinians postponed their own elections and then forgot about them.

Last week they announced new elections for July 9 and now the date has been pushed off until September.
And then yesterday Palestinian leadership announced that their cabinet will be replaced. President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayad will appoint a new cabinet with a few leftovers.

The problem here is that Abbas and Fayad are also the object of the people's aggressions. And neither Abbas nor Fayad are not stepping down.


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Jordan is in Trouble
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah faces a big problem. Abdullah is doing his best to quell potential public moves to overthrow his rule.

First Tunisia, then Egypt and now the King has received a petition from tribal leaders in Jordan.

The leaders want Queen Rania to remove herself from all politics.

The petition says that Rania is Palestinian and she is drawing attention to and speaking about the Palestinian cause and detracting from the Jordanian cause. The petition actually asserts that it is a misuse of state money and time and detracts from Jordan's interests.

These tribal leaders have been Abdullah's historical, political, natural power base. This petition means something.

One of the reasons for the marriage between Abdullah and Rania was to cement the relationship between Jordanians and Palestinians. The marriage was not meant to increase tension between the Palestinians and the Hashemites, it was meant to subdue and mollify tensions.

Now, everything has changed. Now, everything is different.

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Egypt Is Again Under the Army
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hosni Mubarak - after much jockeying for position and a series of false starts and stops has stepped down from office.

Mubarak transferred all control to the Superior Council for the Military which is headed by General Tantawi. And not surprisingly Omar Suleiman also sits on the council. Egypt is now under military rule.

But this is not really very different than yesterday... when it was also a military dictatorship.

Just like Mubarak and Sadaat before him Suleiman has been a military leader his entire adult life. Historically, Egypt has been controlled by the military and now again the military is in total control.

In Egypt the leader leads the army and contrary to media reports, the Egyptian army can be extremely oppressive and brutal.
The saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for." The people of Egypt have gotten what they wish for. Now let's see if they like it.

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The Cairo Effect
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Call it the Cairo Effect.

The unrest that rocked Cairo has had a huge impact in other parts of the world.

Because of the Cairo Effect leaders are turning cartwheels to placate their masses. And because of the Cairo Effect there is now a $1.50 increase in the average price of gasoline in the tank.

And tourists who had scheduled trips to Egypt are now going elsewhere. Tourists used to go to Cairo and Sinai before going on Bethlehem and Jericho. Now they are dropping Sinai and going to Bethlehem and Jericho and East Jerusalem. In fact, tour operators are rerouting groups to Bethlehem and Jericho even if they were not intended to vacation there.

15 million tourists used to enter Egypt every year. Now, the tourism industry has hit rock bottom in Egypt. It looks like the beneficiaries are Israel and the Palestinians.

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PA Calls for Elections in July
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has announced that they will have elections on July 9th. The last elections the PA held were in 2006.

The Palestinian parliament that now sits was supposed to dissolve in January 2010 - over a year ago.

The Palestinian president was elected in 2005 - and his term was up 2009. There were supposed to have been elections for that position also.

The Palestinian prime minister was not elected, he was appointed by Palestinian President Abbas.

The parliament, the president and the prime minister serve outside the constitution.

Hamas has declared that the PA has no right to announce new elections. They say it must be a joint decision.
Hamas wants to boycott the elections.

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New Risks to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's outgoing chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi made a very important observation. Ashkenazi announced that the changing landscape of the Middle East places Israel in great jeopardy.

Ashkenazi asserted that Israel will potentially be defending itself in multiple arenas. That not only means several fronts but also by land, sea and air even from countries that do not share a border with Israel.

This is important insight. The nature of the changes in the Middle East, the role of Iran and the rise of Islamic extremism and their increased control will be a serious threat to Israel.

If the protests in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are any indication Ashkenazi is correct. The rhetoric across the Middle East during these rallies is plain and simple a wave of anti-Israel and anti-Semitic slogans, signs and jeers.

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How to Change Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

President Barak Obama went on the record last night before the Super Bowl telling Fox's Bill O'Reilly "... here's what we know, is that Egypt is not going to go back to what it was. the Egyptian people want freedom, they want free and fair elections, they want a representative government, they want a responsive government."

The new reality in Egypt is that Egypt is different. But the nature of change in the Middle East is normally through violent overthrow. And a violent overthrow normally ousts an oppressive regime and ushers in new oppressive regimes.

The only way to prevent that from happening is to stimulate Egypt to work for serious reforms, change the laws of governance and build institutions of democracy that embrace equality.

The US should not urge Egypt towards free elections but towards building responsible schools and courts. They should be rewarded for their successes with millions of dollars of grants and with civilian aid.

The more they move toward democracy the more aid they get.
There is no way the Egyptians can move significantly toward democracy in the 8 months that remain until their next scheduled elections. No way.

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Protests Peter
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Two telling events took place simultaneously in Egypt today. Protesters met with Egypt's new vice president and a few thousand protesters gathered in Tahrir Square.

The meeting/summit/negotiation/bone to placate the masses with the vice president was a resounding success. The protest was, at best, weak and a sure sign that the momentum of the protesters has diminished almost to the point of disappearing. There were more soldiers in the square than there were protesters.

Transitions and reform will continue in Egypt, but at a slow place. We, the West, must take our cues from the people who know Egypt best -It's a hard pill for the West to swallow.

Egypt cannot make huge changes. Mubarak and Suleiman have heard the message. The timetable they are setting is for the fall. Mubarak said he will not run in September.

The earliest we can expect Mubarak to step down is summertime and it might be as late as after the September elections. The next leader will be a more moderate - type leader. The Parliament will change some elements of the ruling parameters permitting themselves, and by extension the people, more power. And that is how the slow process of reform in Egypt will get underway.

To rush reforms would be tantamount to creating a powder keg situation and a terribly unstable country. The opposite of what we want and Egypt needs.

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Egypt Lost $310 Mil/Day
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

$310,000,000.

The unrest in Egypt is costing $310 million per day in revenue. That does not take into account the cost of destruction or the cost of the police or the military.

$3.1 billion of revenue has been lost since the rioting began.

A conservative estimate puts that $3.1 billion at 5% of Egypt's GDP. The number will no doubt increase - it could easily hit 20%.

The industry most horribly hit is tourism and tourism is one of Egypt's biggest industries. Not only have tourists fled the country during the events of the past 10 days, but future trips have been cancelled. It will take months and years to rebuild the tourism industry.

No matter who ultimately holds the reins of power, it will be very difficult convincing foreigners that Egypt is a safe place to visit and vacation.

No matter who holds the reins of power, rebuilding Egypt will be a long and arduous task.

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Blame Israel for Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

I was astonished when I read the observation of Salam Fayyad the Prime Minster of the Palestinian Authority on the reasons for the unrest in Egypt.

In a press conference with the French PM, Fayyad said that part of the reason for the unrest in Egypt is to be blamed on the inability of the Israelis and the Palestinians to come to an agreement.

To what does this non-sequitur connect? It clearly connects to the desire of Palestinian leadership to link all problems in the Middle East to Israel. Israel is the primary or secondary cause of everything. If the region were to rid itself of Israel, the problems would all fade away.

Fayyad is no fool. He has a Ph.D. from U of T in Austin and was a major player in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He probably does not believe a word of what he said, but he knows that others will be persuaded by what he said. Comments like the one Fayyad just made unite the Arab masses against a common enemy. Fayyad carried out a classic practice in populism and in motivating the masses.

If anything, the events in Egypt show that Israel and the Palestinians are a minor issue in the Middle East. The events in Egypt clearly illustrate that Palestinians in Israel and in the Palestinian Authority live much better lives than their average Arab neighbors.

For Palestinian leadership, it's all about spin.

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Don't Rush to Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is hoping for quick elections in Egypt.
P.J. Crowley, the State Department spokesman, said yesterday that the US wants to see free, fair and credible elections. "The sooner that can happen, the better."

This is a big mistake. Rushing to elections will almost certainly guarantee the rise of extremists.

All non-democratic forces should be forbidden from participating systems. Non-democratic parties must not be permitted to stand for election.

Many of the parties in Egypt, but most notably the Muslim Brotherhood which is the best organized opposition party, is blatantly anti-democratic.

Many countries in the world forbid anti-democratic parties because extremism threatens the democratic backbone of a society and, if successful, eliminates democracy. That is what happened in the PA with Hamas and it is what happened with Hitler's rise to power.
Hitler was elected to power democratically and then dismantled the democracy that put him in power,

Fledgling democracies must protect themselves from anti-democratic forces.

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Reforms in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Jordan, riots and protests have become regular events over the past few weeks. Jordan's riots began when the riots in Tunisia began and have intensified as the unrest in Egypt intensifies.

Jordan's King Abdullah has sacked his entire government.

Abdullah is trying to stave off what happened in Egypt. To that end he is adding subsidies for food and staples.

The new government, he says, will "institute real political reforms." They are also expected to implement economic reforms. According to the King's statement the new government will be charged with the "immediate revision" of laws governing politics and public freedom.

It sounds like King Abdullah of Jordan is reworking his entire country. But that, of course, will never happen. It doesn't make a difference - in the Middle East, gestures are important. In the Middle East, gestures are sometimes more important than actions

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Meltdown in Possible in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A new round of intel is spreading thru the halls and flying over the screens of intelligence analysts.

The intel says that there is real danger that the Iranian nuclear facility at Busher, the facility that was built by the Russians, is in danger of a meltdown. A meltdown similar to the meltdown in Chernobyl.

The cause of the meltdown is the Stuxnet worm that infiltrated the Iranian nuclear plant.

Given the nature of the Stuxnet worm, the only way to know if Busher will really meltdown is when the plant develops its nuclear potential.

That is when we will know if Stuxnet really infiltrated the plant. That is when we will know if Stuxnet is as powerful as we believe it to be.

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Food Costs Go Up in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Another crisis is emerging. More unrest is poised to overtake Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Middle East.

The price of food is skyrocketing. When the price of food goes up - local unrest increases.
Wheat futures have reached a 29 month high. The price of gasoline is rising and rising.

To confront this new crisis, Jordan's King Abdullah is reinstituting subsidies on foods, especially on staples. Jordan asked for and received $100 million in help from the US to offset the cost of the subsidies.

And on Sunday, Mubarak, like Jordan's king, ordered that food prices be slashed to ease the burden on the masses and to hopefully quell anger over food prices.

This is a big crisis. It doesn't get worse than food and gas shortages. More unrest is brewing.

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Mubarak a Least Worst Option
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Replacing Mubarak in Egypt is not necessarily the best option. Yes we embrace democracy and the voice of the people and we also embrace the right of the people to choose even a bad leader.
One of the most obvious results of ousting Mubarak would be replacing him with Islamic leadership. Not Islamic leadership like in Iran, Islamic leadership like Hamas.

The potential for war with Israel would increase dramatically. Stability in Jordan would teeter and possibly fall. Anyone who enters the leadership position instead of Mubarak will be a sponsor of Hamas in their attack against Israel. A war or a near war situation could cost the lives of tens of thousands of Egyptians and ruin entire regional and world economies.

Mubarak is a thug. But a quick revolt and casting him aside could endanger the world. Mubarak needs to be pressured to modify and liberalize and transition into better forms of leadership.
An overthrow of Mubarak is not in the best interests of the United States or of the West. Not in the long term and not in the short term.

That might sound anti-democratic, but it is not. It is a political, economic and historically proven reality.

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Mubarak is Not Going Away
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

As things heat up even more in Egypt and as the military has been brought into the picture, several things should be made perfectly clear.

Egypt has the power to put down the protests and restore order. The question is how many people will die in the process.
There are about 18 million people in Cairo, about 78 million in the entire country. Even if this becomes a more popular uprising, the only way to topple Mubarak is if the military joins the cause.

The many and various extremist groups are more organized than the students who have been the face of this uprising. The extremists outnumber and out-organize the students. Extremists and students might join forces but they have nothing in common except their disdain for Mubarak.

Do not hope for major change in Egypt.

After the Government puts down the unrest and things become calmer - which will happen, Mubarak will institute changes. He will fire his interior minister, the person responsible for the police. He may free some long time prisoners. These are some of the demands of the student protesters. He may also call for new parliamentary elections even though the last ones were a mere two months ago.

Mubarak is not going to step down and disappear. He will seek revenge against both those who stood silent and those who participated in the uprising.

For many years Mubarak has functioned as a benevolent dictator, but he is and always will be a dictator. He is and always will be a thug.

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Friday in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Friday is the day of rest in the Muslim World. And on Fridays the Imams (Muslim clerics) preach to the masses who visit their mosques. Often, these sermons are broadcast nationally. The words of the Imams can set the tone for the nation.

Egyptian leaders and people across the Arab world are now holding their collective breath, waiting to hear what the Imams will say. Their words can cause a massive uprising - or they can quell it.

The Imams of Egypt are paid by the state. If the preachers embrace the protesters and the protests they will be removed from their positions and possibly even arrested. The government has already spoken to the Imams to make certain that they hit all the correct notes. But when a speaker speaks, there is no way to edit the text.

Yesterday also saw protests in the West African country of Gabon and in Yemen. Interesting - and not coincidental.

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Uprising in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Protests are spreading in Egypt. Now the United States and the European Union have asked Egypt to permit the protests and allow the rallies.

Let people voice their dissent, they say.
Tension between Egypt and the West about reforming and liberalizing and moving to more democratic institutions has been a constant.
Egypt will fight to protect itself. Egypt does not take kindly to the United States meddling into internal affairs. Egyptian leadership can always be counted on to defend their place and their position. Status is more important than democratic reforms.

Egypt will not take any risks for Western liberal values. If it comes to it, Egyptian police will massacre Egyptian citizens and publically hang and humiliate leaders of the opposition. The police are brutal in Egypt and there are untold numbers of secret police.
Egyptian leadership is not about to budge.

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Demonstrations in the Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Two demonstrations took place in the Arab world yesterday - two demonstrations worth noting and worth comparing.

Demonstration # 1 took place in Egypt. Egyptians took their lives in their hands and headed out to the streets. They were empowered by the events that took place several weeks ago in Tunisia - and they came out by the masses. Thousands of people spontaneously came out - not tens of thousands but, never the less, thousands of Egyptians willing to put their lives in jeopardy for a cause in which they believed. They want change in Egypt and they want more freedom in Egypt.

Demonstration # 2 took place within the Palestinian Authority. The demonstration was a welcome back to Abbas as the Palestinian leader returned from a visit to Egypt. Abbas was met with cheers and supporters, greeted by not more than several dozen supporter. The demonstrators intended to show the Arab world that Abbas has the support of the Palestinian people, but they could only muster up a staged and artificial display of support.

Spontaneous demonstration versus staged demonstration.
Spontaneous demonstrations are not looked upon kindly in this part of the world. Staged demonstrations are encouraged.

If momentum builds and if more people join spontaneous demonstrations, if as many as tens of thousands of demonstrators choose to protest in Egypt or other parts of the Arab world, governments will crack down. And they will make Iran's reaction to protestors look kind.

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Al Jazeera Leaks
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A set of leaks concerning secret negotiations between Palestinians and Israel has been made public by the Qatari TV network Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera is the most watched Arabic network in the Arabic speaking world. It exerts tremendous influence and has extensive popular support. Put bluntly, Al Jazeera sets the tone on the streets of the Arabic world.

The network claims to have some 1600 memos and minutes of negotiations between Palestinians leaders and Israelis in the midst of negotiations. And the material is damning, terribly damning. It has Palestinians agreeing to and showing great flexibility on the Palestinian Right of Return, on Jerusalem and on the final status map including land swaps.

This is very hopeful for those who hope for a negotiated settlement. It is a minefield for Palestinian leaders, the Arab world and the Palestinian population who see these ideas as sacrosanct.
These leaks could very well cause an uprising. These leaks could result in a Hamas revolt and the ousting of Abbas.

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Hezbollah May Lead Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Monday January, 24 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Word is spreading through the Arabic press that if Lebanon turns toward Hezbollah, the United States will pull all their support. They are saying this because this was the threat that Congress made last year and then proceeded to hold up $100 million in aid - until.

Until the US State Department argued that Lebanon needed the aid to confront Hezbollah, but the State Department was wrong and the entire plan was proved to be a failure.

Now that Druze leader Walid Jumblat has thrown his support behind Hezbollah it is almost inevitable that Lebanon will become the second Shiite country in the world.

There is also the possibility that Jumblat is laying a trap for Hezbollah. There is a possibility that he will pull his support and then side with the Sunnis and Christians of Lebanon creating a government that would clip Hezbollah's wings, or at least, limit their power.

The Arabic press is trying to influence Lebanon by holding US aid over them, hoping that the Lebanese will side against Hezbollah.

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Syrian US Relations
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

This has been an important few days for Syrian/US relations.

The new United States ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, and Syrian Foreign Minister Moualem met and spoke about improving relations. Ford showed his host a letter he will deliver to Syrian President Assad that stresses improved relations between their countries.

In 2005 the United States pulled the Syrian ambassador because it was clear even then that Syria had both direct and indirect links to the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri.

Now the US is hopeful that they can lure Syria out of the Iranian nest and bring the Syrians under the influence of the West. If the United States can succeed with their mission the entire complexion of the Middle East could be altered.

I doubt they will succeed.

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Druze Back Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 22, 2011

Ive Been Thinking:

Walid Jumblat is leader of the Druze in Lebanon. Jumblat is a second generation king maker in Lebanese politics.

Yesterday Jumblat announced that he supports a new Hezbollah government in Lebanon.

The Druze community in Lebanon represents the key swing vote between the Christians, the Shiites and the Sunnis.

The primary reason for the tension between Jumblat and the entire Druze community and Hezbollah stems from the fact that Jumblat wanted Syria out of Lebanon and that sentiment pit him against Hezbollah.

Not six months ago Jumblat claimed that Hezbollah wants to kill him. Now comes this announcement. When Druze leader Jumblat announces support for Hezbollah something is very strange - Jumblat has been a sworn enemy of Hezbollah for years.

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Iran Opens Hacker Unit
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's chief of police, General Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, recently announced that the Iranians are forming a new cyber police force.

This is not a group of cyber cops to spy on Iranians. This is a special task force unit, created about six months ago, to troll the internet and try to defend Iran.

Iran realizes that they are hopelessly trailing the rest of the world in internet related matters. Iran knows that there is only one way to catch up - by entering the world of hacking and counter hacking.

Iran needs to groom their hackers. Thus far, Iran has no real significant homegrown computer masters.

Iran's failure to stop the Stuxnet virus pointed out to them and to everyone watching how little they know and how expensive it is to get reliable computer brainpower.

Iran will catch up. When Iran is determined to do something, they do it. And right now, Iran is determined to master the cyber world.

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A Mistake: Dips on Strike
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will not be participating in the UN Security Council debate about the Middle East this month. It is a monthly discussion and Israel is always there as are the Palestinians.

During this meeting the Palestinians will present their proposal for the creation of a state. There will be no counter discussion by Israel.

Why?

Because the Foreign Ministry of Israel is on strike. That means that there is no one who can and will confront the proposal. The purpose of the forum is to have a debate, not a single-sided declaration.

Israel's foreign ministry workers are underpaid, even grossly underpaid. But the timing of this strike will cause irreparable harm to Israel.

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Russia to Open Muslim Network
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians have decided to launch a Muslim TV network. The idea was suggested three years ago by the current President of Russia, Medvedev.
Twenty million Muslims live in Russia and there has been a significant amount Muslim anti - Russian and anti-government activity over the past few years.

The suggestion that the new media, specifically TV as well as other forms of high tech transmissions, can shape the way people see things in ingenious.

By using modern media Russia can educate and acculturate the Muslim population and influence them. The vision would be to expose Russians to the positive sides of Russian democracy and Russian culture.

TV and other modern media could be the greatest vehicle ever to reach out and modulate extremism.

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Iran and Russia Talk About Nuke Fuel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia spoke to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by phone yesterday. The Kremlin released info about the call.
The conversation was about nuclear cooperation. They spoke about the Busher power plant - the plant that the Russians help build for the Iranians.

The Russians and the Iranians have agreed that they should work together and that there is much to cooperate over regarding Busher. Iran needs nuclear fuel and Russian is more than willing to provide it.

Of course there are numerous UN resolutions that are in place preventing Russia from cooperating and providing nuclear fuel to the Iranians and their nuclear power plant, but neither country seemed to be too concerned with that.

Russia built the plant and took an extra long time to complete it. There was much tension around the plant. Iran claimed that Russia was sabotaging the construction to cow tail to the US.

It will be very difficult for Russia to hide this new deal from the UN and from the West. Russia must have something up their sleeve.

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Syria & Jordan Fear Revolts
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syria and Jordan are in fear of revolts - similar to what happened in Tunisia.

And they have begun to respond.

Yesterday, Syria increased heating oil subsidies to 2 million workers by 75%. The goal is to try to buy support and allegiance.
Jordan did the same thing. Over the past few months Jordan had been trying to cut back on subsidies - to run the government without subsidies and bring their economy into the modern world. Now Jordan is reinstituting subsidies worth $225 million on essentials like sugar and rice.

Both Jordan and Syria are trying to quell any dissatisfaction among the masses. They are doing their best to put down any potential revolts.

The region is quaking - and for good reason.

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Tunisia & Tourists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

One of the biggest untold stories of the Tunisian uprising and anarchy are the thousands and thousands of Western tourists stranded in the mayhem.

Tunisia is a getaway for Europeans searching for warmth and beautiful beaches.

These Westerners are targets for the rioters.

European airlines are rushing to get their people out. Many tour companies and national tour agencies are heavily involved in Tunisia. Tourists are pushing and shoving in the airports waiting to board planes and escape.

The dangers to tourists in Tunisia are beyond conceivable, the dangers are truly life threatening.

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Ben Ali Flees Tunisia
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Tunisia went in a state of emergency.

Rioters succeeded in forcing Tunisian dictator Ben Ali to flee to Saudi Arabia, France rejected him. The dictator has been in power for 23 years, ever since 1987 when he assumed his position in a bloodless coup.

Massive anger and frustration over unemployment and a depressed economy exacerbated by the oppressive measures employed by Ben Ali had people spilling over into the streets. Tunisians were climbing the walls of the Interior Ministry - a place where so many were tortured.

Whatever happens, the situation in Tunisia will have a huge impact on the region and on the entire Middle East. Will there be elections? What force will emerge? Will that force be more of the same? Or will that force transition and create a productive positive Tunisia?

There is no way to predict the near or distant future for Tunisia.

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Lebanon Near Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is on the verge of civil war.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Arab League have all called on the Lebanese to calm down not act rashly.

Lebanon's Shiites and Sunnis are poised for battle. The head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, announced that there will be no war, but he is wrong.

Two grenades were thrown at the Christian Party offices in Beirut. That is the opening salvo. The Christian Party is thought to be Hezbollah allies.

Tensions are rising. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri is on his way to Turkey. In Ankara he will get an earful of "make certain that there is no civil war."

But it's not up to Hariri, Hezbollah is calling the shots. They brought down the government because they do not want the UN special committee to present indictments that will certainly name Hezbollah operations and heads as those responsible for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, this prime minister's father.

Talking to Hariri is a waste of time... if you want to stop the war- stop Hezbollah.

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Mousavi Calls Iran's Leader Nazis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Mousavi, the head of Iran's opposition and the leader of last year's election campaign for change in Iran, has publically proclaimed that the current leadership in Iran is just like the Nazis.

Mousavi paralleled the behavior of Iranian leadership with that of Josef Goebels, the head of propaganda for Hitler and the Nazis. He said that Iranian leaders tell lies just like the lies of the Nazis during the Goebels era.

Criticizing the government in Iran is against the law.

Criticizing the Ayatollah, the supreme leader of Iran, is a major crime.

Mousavi is on thin ice, he could easily be arrested. What is his end game? Does Mousavi think that getting arrested will help his cause?

I assume that Mousavi will shift into action when he gets arrested. And then maybe there will be massive riots calling for his freedom. That's the only way to shake up Iran.

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US Tests New Drone
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US tested a $30 million unmanned drone last week in the California desert. The test was reported in the LA Times.

This unmanned drone is so effective that it can:
stay in the sky for several days
relay info back to its base
cover entire countries in a single scan

The drone is the size of a 747 - tiny drones are useful but restricted to local monitoring.

This is the next generation of intelligence gathering and monitoring hardware.

This is the new generation of drones for a new generation of war.

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Obama and the Arizona Shooting
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The horrific shooting in Tucson, Arizona may be the water shed for President Obama and his presidency.

This event may be the turning point in the 2012 presidential election.

The president responded extremely well to the crisis. His response resonated with voters. Because of his response, Americans feel the pain of Tucson coupled with pride in being American.

I will not be surprised if this weekend's polls have Obama way up.

The presidential campaign has begun. Like any great politician Obama is seizing the moment to hammer his message.

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Romney To the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Republican party primary campaign is up and running. The field may small at this point but Mitt Romney is determined to take the lead from the start.

Romney is now on a trip to Afghanistan, from there he will go on to visit Israel and Jordan,

The tradition of presidential campaigns includes the 3 I's. Candidates often travel to Ireland, Italy and Israel. Romney is just the beginning. Almost all candidates from both parties will eventually travel not only to the 3 I's but also to Afghanistan and Iraq.

Presidential wannabes need to get their pictures taken and make their presence felt at real time briefings on what is happening on the ground.

The race is on.

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Arab League in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League is supposed to meet in Iraq on March 23. This would be the first time since 1990 that the Arab League will meet in Iraq. But the meeting is in question.

Arab League sources may say that the meet will go on as scheduled, but that statement is highly unlikely.

There are 2 issues that suggest that now is not the right time to hold the meeting in Iraq.
1- There is a shortage of hotels in Iraq that are at a level high enough to service Arab League events and representatives.
2- Al Qaeda has threatened to attack the League meetings and anyone and any group attending. At this point in Iraq's history a threat like that is very hard to defend against and must be taken very seriously.

We often focus on security issues related to the US and other Westerners in Iraq and on general threats from al Qaeda. This is a perfect illustration of just how much internal, Arab vs. Arab, conflict there is in the Middle East.

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Secretary Gates to China
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

This weekend US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates leaves for a 5 day trip to China. Gates will be the first Secretary of Defense to visit China since 2000.

The purpose of the trip is to re-establish military relations with China which cut off all military interaction and communications because the United States has continued its relationship with Taiwan.

China is by far the largest army in the world... but it is an army in need of modernization.

The US can help China. And China can help the US

The Chinese army is a huge market for the US - and China has a lot to offer the United States. China has access to a tremendous amount of military intel and info about what is happening in the world that could be enormously beneficial for the US.

Best of luck, Secretary Gates.

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Clinton to the Gulf
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is on her way to the Gulf States. She is there for the weekend and will spend her time in a round of talks.

Clinton will definitely be visiting the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar. This is her second trip to the region in two months.

This trip is anything but frivolous, there is an important agenda at work here. The United States must convince Arab states in the region to keep up pressure against Iran. The US must attempt to sway some of voices in the region to come out publicly and vociferously against Iran.

The United States must act quickly. While the US is trying to curry favors, Iran is working its magic in the same arena.

In January there will be a meeting of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and the EU held in Turkey. The topic under discussion will be Iran's nuclear program.

Iran is making a play for popular Arab and world opinion - the United States is only really interested in convincing the West. That is why this Clinton trip is so crucial.

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Christians in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tonight begins the Coptic Christmas.

Copts are a sect of Egyptian Christians. They were the target of the New Year's terror attack that killed 21 Christians. Egyptian Copts have been protesting all week, asking for more protection and more government condemnation of the attacks.

The government has stepped up protection - for tonight.

The Copts are calling for the Muslims in Egypt to create a human fence to protect their right to practice Christianity in Egypt.

There are 8 million Coptic Christians in Egypt and that constitutes about 10% of the population of Egypt. Coptic Christians date their sect back 2000 years. The word "copt" actually means Egyptian… but today it refers to Coptic Christians only. Christianity came to Egypt from via Mark in about the year 46. The Christians of Egypt trace themselves to that period which makes Copts one of the oldest Christian communities in the Middle East.

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Conflict Btw Iran & Afghanistan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A major conflict is emerging on the Iranian/Afghani border.

2500 Afghani fuel trucks fully loaded with gasoline are sitting on the Iranian side of the border. Iran is refusing to permit the trucks to cross the border. Afghanistan sees the act as a boycott and an act of war.

The cost of gasoline in Afghanistan has spiked by 70% over the past few days and it is only going to get worse.

Remember - US forces are in Afghanistan. There is the potential for a huge explosion, even a full blow conflict, between Iran and the US on the ground. And there is certainly the potential of a series of Afghan attacks against Iran.

Iran is looking for a legal opportunity to strike Afghanistan and even to hit targets sensitive to the US or US targets themselves.

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Iran Asks to Find General
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

New Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi asked the president of the International Red Cross to search for Iranian General Alireza Asqhari who has been missing since 2007.

Most likely, General Asqhari defected. He is probably living a wonderful life on a deserted island with all the comforts money can buy and a fat Cayman Island bank account. In exchange, he also delivered all the most important info possible to the US and Israel.

When the Iranians originally sounded the alarm there were very credible rumors that their general went to Turkey where he was probably picked up, interrogated and debriefed. From there he probably slipped away never to be seen again.

Iran claims that the general was kidnapped by Israel and by the United States. So why talk to the Red Cross now - again?

Because the new Iranian foreign minister wants to cement his position as the great defender of the Iranians.

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Attacks on Christians
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a streak of attacks against Christians living in the Arab world over the past few weeks.

The attacks have been perpetrated by Muslim terrorists, motivated primarily by deeply ingrained anti-Christian feelings.

Another motivating factor, one that has been overlooked, is that while the attacks are anti-Christian, they are also motivated by a hatred against the West.

Hatred against the West is a factor of being in the Middle East. Christianity, although born and nurtured in the Middle East, symbolizes Western culture and Western civilization.

In the Middle East, Christianity is a clear reference to the culture of the West.

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Clinton Shakes with Chavez
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

What was the US Secretary of State thinking? Where were her advisers? Where was their common sense?

Hillary Clinton shook hands with Hugo Chavez yesterday- pleasantries were exchanged.

Chavez just rejected the US ambassador in his country and Obama sent the Venezuelan ambassador packing. It's only the latest in a collection of snubs and name callings and disputes between the United States and Venezuela.

Shaking Chavez' hand sends the wrong message to everyone. Shaking Chavez' hand shows weakness on the part of the US. Shaking Chavez' hand is a diplomatic mistake.

Excuses can be made, but truly, there is no excuse. The invited guests were wasting time at the inauguration of the new president of Brazil. This is not the first time a US leader was in the room with a non-friendly leader of another country or someone who is getting the cold shoulder from the US. The response is to play diplomatic "sea-saw" - they go here, you go there. That is why you have staff. Even if Chavez wanted to embarrass Clinton with the handshake - which is most likely what he intended to do, the skillful diplomat avoids or deflects the situation.

This is a serious diplomatic snafu.

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Abbas Wants Altenative Peace
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had some insightful and forceful things to say yesterday.

He said that the United States is more interested in managing the Palestinian/Israeli conflict than in resolving it. In that, Abbas may be correct.

He called for an international response, explaining that he wants to establish an international committee to manage the establishment of a Palestinian State.

At the same time that the president of the PA was making these statements, PA security forces arrested Kawasma in Hebron. Kawasma is the most dangerous and most significant of all Hamas terrorists. In addition to being on the PA's list, Kawasma is also on Israel's terrorists list. Now everyone is happy.

In arresting a leading Hamas strongman, Abbas and the Palestinian Authority have finally assumed the roles that the international community was expecting them to assume.

This single and very important act may pave the way for more international support of the PA and may just accomplish the sought after end around of US involvement in the conflict.

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Christians Attacked in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In Iraq yesterday the homes of four Christian families were bombed. Two people were killed in the terror attacks.

This terror is part of larger Muslim/ Christian tensions in the Middle East.

The attacks were timed to coincide with Christmas and the Christmas season. Clearly, this is the work of Muslim extremists who refuse to accept alternative religious expressions.

These are the big questions: Why has Christian leadership been silent on this issue? Why hasn't Christian leadership been up in arms about this direct attack against Christians and Christian tradition?

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Israel Discovers Gas
By Micah Halpern

Blog

Thursday December 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the US energy company Nobel Energy jointly announced that they have discovered a reserve of 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The find is valued at $95 billion. This reserve is located 100 miles off the coast of Haifa.

This discovery is the largest natural gas find in of the last decade. This discovery will turn Israel into one of the world's great exporters of gas in the next few years. This reserve lies about 30 miles away from another recent find called Tamar, valued at $15 billion.

The name given to the newly discovered site is Leviathan... also known as the enormous beast.

These discoveries are true game changers - for the region and for the world.

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Dahlan Under Investigation
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Once upon a time Mohammed Dahlan was considered the fair haired boy of Fatah - seen as a potential successor to Arafat and Abbas.

Today Dahlan spends most of his time abroad and is being investigated by Abbas and Fatah for financial irregularities and incitement against Abbas. He has called for Abbas' replacement and has said some impolite things about Abbas' son.

At one point Dahlan was expected by Washington be the next Palestinian leader. He was one of President Bill Clinton's absolute favorites among the Arafat team and a regular guest in the West Wing.

Dahlan was the man Washington DC thought could bring order and move the Palestinians to the next stages towards peace and statehood. He was the strong arm of Fatah especially in Gaza and was expected to be the Palestinian connection to the West.

All hopes for Dahlan were dashed in the summer of 2007 when Hamas expelled Fatah from Gaza and he was nowhere to be found. Since then, Dahlan has been a non-entity.

Now the fair haired boy of Fatah is under investigation by Fatah.

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Presidential Elections in Egypt Sept 2011
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Gamal Mubarak, the Policy Chief of Egypt's ruling party, also the son of current president Hosni Mubarak, made an announcement yesterday.

Presidential elections will take place in September of 2011. And in July, the party will decide who their nominee will be.

President Hosni Mubarak is 83 years old, has been elected 5 times and has been in power since 1981. He has not said that he will step down, but the widely held assumption is that Gamal will succeed him.

The next few months will be critical in determining if Gamal is prepared. There are serious questions about his skill, his public presence and whether he has the ruthlessness to control Egypt.

Gamal has no military background and will be spending much time cultivating the Egyptian army and air force - without them, there is no possibility of maintaining order and power in Egypt.

Over the next few months we need to watch the different roles Gamal plays and the responses to those roles. He may be the chosen candidate or maybe - Hosni will forge on for another term as president.

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Christmas Muslim Terror
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Christmas day there was a slew of terrorist attacks against Christians by Muslim terrorists. The Pope, in his Sunday mass from St. Peter's Square in the Vatican, condemned the attacks.

These attacks should have come as no surprise - they were to be expected.

In Nigeria, two churches were bombed resulting in at least 32 deaths and critically wounding 70. A Church in the Philippines was also attacked.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. Of the180 million people living in Nigeria, there is an almost even split between Muslims and Christians. The average wage in Nigeria is about $1200 per year.

Muslim / Christian relations throughout Africa are stressed and they will continue to be stressed. Al Qaeda is gaining more and more sympathizers. What most annoys these newly recruited Muslim terrorists is the public displays of the other religions within their borders and the fact that religions other then Islam are given recognition as equal or even viable alternatives to Islam.

And that is why terrorists target Christian churches on and around Christian holidays.

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Mossad Apology to England
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The British Telegraph reported that the new Israeli Chief of Mossad was going to apologize to England for using stolen passports earlier this year during the famous assassination in Dubai of Hamas master terrorist Mabouh.

As a part of the apology comes a promise that the Mossad will not use forged or stolen British passports again in the future.

This kind of apology is tantamount to a public admission of guilt.

The objective here is to get Israel and England back on the same path, to get them once again working together on intelligence to make a safer world.

The new Israeli Chief of Mossad thinks that this goal is worth the cost of admitting responsibility for the infamous deed.

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Jordan Bans Anne Frank
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has established an official committee of inquiry into a private school.

What did this private school do? Their curriculum includes an English textbook and in the English textbook there is a chapter about the Holocaust that includes several quotations from The Diary of Anne Frank.

How obtuse.

The committee is looking into other schools, checking to see if they, too, may be violating Jordanian law by teaching Anne Frank. According to Jordanian law all curriculum must be approved - and Anne Frank is not approved.

Here is the problem.

We know that Jordan is not a democracy. We assumed that it was an enlightened dictatorship. We assumed that the monarchy was liberalizing ideas and education while still holding a firm grasp on government and leadership.

We were wrong.

I personally have purchased several editions of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion in Jordan.

Forbidding the study of Holocaust and banning Anne Frank is just a mistake. It is self destructive for a government to try to silence the voice of a little child. Read her diary and you will understand.

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Iran Meets Joins International Team
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), the official Iranian news agency, reported yesterday that the acting head of the Iranian Navy attended a conference in Sri Lanka.

What makes this interesting to us is that also present at that conference were commanders of the United States Navy, the Russian Navy, the French Navy and the British Navy. 22 nations sent representatives to the conference which took place last month.

The conference was convened to discuss piracy. The objective was to try to create a united task force and a united strike force to directly confront piracy.

There is no doubt that piracy has gotten out of control. Without serious international effort and significant cooperation, there is almost no way to adequately put the genie back in the bottle. It is in the best interest of all those nations who participated in the conference to organize and then strike out against the pirates.

Iran is a significant player on the high seas. Iran needs to make certain that the seas are free of pirates. Iran was wise to attend this conference. So why did it take a month to announce that they attended ... that's the way it works in Iran.

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Iran & Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad travelled just over his border today. He ventured into Turkey where several sets of critical meetings are scheduled to take place.

Turkey is a member of the Security Council. The Turkish government has been siding with Iran against the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Nuclear issues will certainly be on the Iranian/Turkish agenda. Turkey actually suggested that they host the upcoming nuclear talks and Iran readily agreed, but the European Union will not allow Iran to have such a home court advantage.

A meeting of Central Asian states, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, will also be taking place with Iranian participation. Iran wants to be taken seriously in that group. Ahmadinejad would like to sway these countries, also, to join him in changing world orientation away from the United States.

Ahmadinejad is a man with a mission.

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Assange is Calling the Pot Black
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

You know the expression: a pot calling the kettle black. Here is a perfect example.

In an interview with the Times of London, Wikileaks founder and figurehead Julian Assange was angered because the trial documents of his Swedish sex abuse trial have been leaked to the British newspaper The Guardian. The newspaper now has the task of deciphering the reams of cables and letters and comments and documents.

There is more than a hint of irony in this entire incident because the Guardian is one of the several news outlets handpicked by Assange to present his own massive leaks. Assange expressed his horror that the details are going unchecked into the mass media.

You know the cliche: what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Grow up Julian, grow up.

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Brazil Lashes Out at US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Brazil has announced that there will never be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is guardian.

Luiz Lula da Silva proclaimed that an end to US control of the Middle East would usher in an era of peace. He said: "There will not be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is the guardian of peace. It is necessary to involve other countries in negotiations."

He then added that the unfair conditions other countries must withstand because of the United States is unjust - particularly Iran and the sanctions that they confront.

Remember, Brazil, along with Turkey, voted not to impose sanctions against Iran in the most recent UN Security Council Meetings.

Brazil has bought into the world view that the United States should not be determining priorities and adjudicating who is right and who is wrong.

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Turkey is Upset Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is up in arms over the agreement that was signed last Friday between Cyprus and Israel.

It was an agreement about maritime borders. It was an agreement about oil and gas drilling rights. It was an agreement about who owns what and where.

Turkey is livid because they do not accept Cyprus' authority to make such an agreement. Turkey disputes the very right of the Cypriot government to exist. Turkey controls half of Cyprus.

Cyprus is just the catalyst. This is another in a series of events that pits Turkey against Israel.

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Denzel Washington Comes to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On the cultural front it is always interesting to watch who comes to Israel and who cancels their trips to Israel. But let's talk about who comes.

This past week Denzel Washington, Pauletta, his wife of thirty years and his family, flew into Israel on a private jet.

As a family they visited Haifa and were hosted by Denzel's long time friend from acting school in New York City, Dr. David Davis. Davis is the head of Messianic Jews in Haifa.

The Washington family also visited Jerusalem, stayed in a prominent Jerusalem hotel (the Citadel of David Hotel) and visited the Old City and the Western Wall. According to rumor, which often turns out to be true, Denzel and Pauletta bought his and hers wedding rings spun from red gold and a few cigars, one of Denzel's passions.

In 2011, according to an announcement he made on Larry King, Bon Jovi and his legendary band will be performing in Israel.

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France To Transfer Missiles to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

France just announced that they will be supplying Lebanon with 100 missiles by the end of February.

Why on earth would France do such a thing?

Both the United States and Israel strongly oppose this transfer of missiles to Lebanon.
But the French are doing it anyway.

The French believe that, given the tensions in Lebanon right now, the best way to stabilize the country is to bolster the standing government against Hezbollah. Hezbollah might very well attempt to take over Lebanon if the United Nations indicts their commanders for assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafik Hariri.

The obvious problem is that Hezbollah is stronger than the government's army.
That means that these 100 missiles will probably end up in the hands of Hezbollah.
And that is very dangerous.

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Iran & West Near Deal
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The British Daily Telegraph website came out with a blockbuster last night.

According to their French diplomat source Iran and the West are about to close a deal - brokered by the Turks.

The deal would involve lifting sanctions against Iran and taking them out of the international doghouse. In exchange the Iranians would deliver 1000 kilo of low enriched uranium and all 30 kilo of their 20% enriched uranium to the West.

In other words, if this really is the deal, almost all the uranium that the Iranians have - certainly all the highly enriched uranium they possess, would be given over to Western nations.

It all, of course, comes with a price tag higher than the mere lifting of sanctions. The West would then supply Iran with already enriched uranium rods (even at 20%) to be used for medical research.

Sounds good, maybe too good.

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Terror Threats Over Christmas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi officials have announced that they have very specific information about plans to attack the West during this Christmas season.

The Iraqis assert that the botched Stockholm terror attack over the weekend was part of a program that targets Western cities.

The information comes to us via captured Al Qaeda terrorists. During their interrogation by Iraq, the terrorists admitted that Al Qaeda was plotting a set of massive attacks to strike at the heart of the West.

One can always assume that Al Qaeda is plotting against the West. From this intelligence it seems that Al Qaeda is close to turning their plot into real action.

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Backlash in Iran Over Firing FM
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

They are feeling frustrated on the streets of Iran.

Iranians are responding negatively to the news that, on Monday, Ahmadinejad fired Foreign Minister Mottaki. There was no warning and no concern about backlash. And now - there is serious backlash.

The big question is: why. Mottaki was in Senegal at the time and received the news in the form of a letter from Ahmadinejad. He is embarrassed, even humiliated.

Politics in Iran have always been a powder keg. A decision of this kind and the response that it has elicited from Iranian society shows the enormous rift, the significant stress and the distrust among even supporters of the government.

Mottaki's job was to defend Iran. For all we in the West know, Mottaki was quiet at a time when Ahmadinejad wanted him to be on the attack.

Whatever the reason, we have to watch closely. We need to see where the chips will land.

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EU Supports Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the EU laid out important parameters defining their Middle East policy.

The EU made it clear that they were not going to recognize a Palestinian State. Now is not the time for such a declaration, they declared.

The EU also made clear their disappointment that Israel did not continue the moratorium on settlement, expressing "regret" over Israel's decision not to accept the US POV.

Then the EU promised to give significant aid to Hamas leadership and Gaza.

The European Union has undertaken the role of a very important intermediary between Israel and the Hamas. The European Union continues to pressure Israel to stop building.

In analyzing the entire EU POV from beginning to end it all the adds up to one thing. The EU is creating a soft cushion for the Palestinians.

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Hamas Has Long Range Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Shaul Mofaz, chairman of the Israeli Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, came out with a clear and unequivocal assessment of Hamas on Sunday.

Mofaz said that if Hamas uses its longer range rockets to attack Israel, Israel will respond by destabilizing and unseating Hamas.

The point is obvious: it is one thing to shoot a few rockets at kibbutzim and small towns near the Gaza border, but if you plan on attacking a major Israelis city with a significant population - you can expect real retribution.

The implication is clear: if Hamas attacks, the Israeli counter attack will not be proportional.

Mofaz is saying that if pushed too hard, Israel will take out Hamas - all of Hamas, from infrastructure through leadership.

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OPEC KEEPS PRICES
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) conducted a very short meeting yesterday in Vienna.

The oligopoly of 12 nations voted quickly to keep the current oil output numbers.

OPEC members are pleased with the current price of oil at just below $90 per barrel. OPEC members realize that given the uncertainty of today's economy, a change in oil production could wreak havoc on the world's economy.

OPEC members were gladdened to hear that it is anticipated that the price of oil will slowly increase over the next year.


OPEC is doing only what is good for OPEC. The organization does not want to put any additional strain on the current sensitive and volatile market - that would potential cause damage to the larger world economy.

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Rockets Hit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A rocket launched from Gaza landed in an open area in Ashkelon yesterday.

An increasing number of rockets have been shot from Gaza these past few weeks. To put it into perspective, fewer rockets are being showered upon Israel now than there were two years ago - resulting Operation Cast Lead, Israel's invasion into Gaza. And what is that diminished number - so far this year, about 205.

Again, putting it in perspective, 205 falling rockets is a lot of rockets.

Israel is responding with air attacks. On Thursday the Israeli air force struck three sites in Gaza.

There is a significant difference between the Israeli and Gazan style of attack. Israel went out on targeted missions with the specific goal of hitting two terrorist training camps and a lone terrorist planning attacks against Israel. Rockets launched by the Palestinians are shots in the dark. The Palestinian objective is to cause as much fear as possible.

Rockets are part of a Palestinian terror plan to generate raw fear in the heart of all Israelis.

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US Sees Error in Call to Stop Settlements
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US now understands that the demand to stop settlements in Israel was a mistake. The State Department is saying that they now see that ending settlement activity became a cause in and of itself and not a tool to solve core issues.

For the Obama Administration, it was a major realization, a diplomatic wow moment. The Palestinians feel betrayed. Israel feels vindicated.

The United States committed one of the greatest analytical and practical errors of diplomacy.
They championed the plight of the weak party only because they were weak.

They took the side of the Palestinians because it seemed that the Palestinians needed their help.
They sabotaged their own diplomatic agenda.
They blinded themselves to the facts on the ground.
And then, they were blindsided by the Palestinians.

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Mossad Report on Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Mossad has reported to the Knesset Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense that Lebanon is in danger of being taken over by Hezbollah.

According to the Mossad, Hezbollah may take over Lebanon as a direct result of the UN report about the murder of former Lebanese President Harari.

This UN report has the potential to force Hezbollah to take over and oust current Lebanese leadership. Hezbollah is already in position to control Lebanon.

The bad news is that if that happens, the Middle East landscape would be drastically altered, it would lead to the creation of yet another Shiite-controlled country.

The Mossad reported that Hezbollah continues to arm itself.

The Mossad reported that if Hezbollah does take over Lebanon there is only a slight chance that Israel would be impacted by the change.

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Egypt Blames Mossad for Shark Attack
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has had a shark attack.

They are blaming the Mossad.

The rumors spread quickly. Throughout Egypt, people are saying that Israel is deliberately sabotaging the Egyptian tourist industry by dumping killer sharks into the water to attack tourists.

People will say things, rumors will run wild and conspiracy theories will abound. We know that. What is most disturbing is when official leadership stimulates those rumors.

According to Egypt's South Sinai Governor Mohamed Abdel Fadil Shousha on egynews.net: "What is being said about the Mossad throwing the deadly shark (in the sea) to hit tourism in Egypt is not out of the question, but it needs time to confirm."

Time to be confirmed? Really, now.

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Iran Announced They Have Uranium
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has claimed a huge victory on the eve of the direct negotiations between their country and the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, which is taking place in Geneva

Iran claims that they have started to enrich locally mined uranium ore.

Up until now all the uranium in Iran has come from yellow cake imported 40 years ago, in 1970, from South Africa. Most experts say that this is a dubious success / victory at best.

Experts assert that there are not enough reserves of uranium in Iran to enable them to gather uranium in quantities sufficient to make the seriously enriched uranium used for high grade nuclear requirements.

The announcement and the negotiations are all about pressure and public impressions. Iran is playing a game of public perception, it is game the Iranians play well.

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Arsonists Add to Israel's Fire
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is confronting a horrific situation - and it's not just the great fire.

Making the situation worse are the numerous other fires engulfing the area - fires caused by terrorist arsonists.

Terrorists have attempted to light additional fires. They are happily attempting to pile on this Israeli tragedy.

This is the nature of the terrorist mind. Terrorists want to destroy. In this case the Palestinian terrorists want to destroy Israeli land and property - not just human life.

Palestinians profess a love of land, but these terrorists are destroying land in order to achieve their goal. Such is war.

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Fires in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The fire in Israel has been devastating. The damage to nature, property, industry and the Israeli people is still growing. Property damage caused by these flames is far worse than damage that has been caused by war.

1,500,000 tress have been burnt.
20,000 dunams (5,000 acres) of land has been destroyed.
15,000 people have been evacuated.
And 41 people have been killed.

Many FOI (friends of Israel) have stepped up with offers of help. Cyprus and Greece and even Turkey sent over materials, equipment and teams.

The hope is that the entire fire will be contained by Saturday night. The reality is that no one anticipated such a catastrophe. There were no emergency measures in place with which to begin to respond to a fire as destructive as this.

This is deeply troubling on many levels.
For years we have known that one of the standard terror plots against Israel was to attempt to set fire to large amounts of land, specifically around Haifa.

Why were there no safety plans in place?
The prime minister must now answer that question.

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Israel looks Good in WikiLeaks
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange agreed to an audio interview for Time Magazine online.

During the interview Assange spoke about Benjamin Netanyahu explaining that the Israeli Prime Minister says that a leader should say the same things in private and in public.

At the same time, the Turkish Prime Minister said that the Israel is responsible for all the leaks. His logic was that the only way Israel can be so happy and so certain about the leaks is if they knew what was in them and controlled the leak.

Of course, Turkey is wrong - and right. Israel did not leak the documents, but Israel does look good in these leaks.

The reality is that Israel was correct in their analysis of Iran. All along Israel has maintained that Iran wanted to go nuclear. These leaked documents help prove Israel's claim.

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Wiki Confrims Saudi King Tells Iran Off
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The WikiLeaks are filled with tidbits - tidbits that confirm things we already knew.

For example: Saudi King Abdullah met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Muttaki in March of 2009.

The Saudi king told the Iranians to butt out of Arab affairs. The message was clear: Do not interfere in Palestinians issues.

There is no love lost between Arabs and Persians (the Iranians). The Iranians are not Arabs and Iran's input is not welcome in their lives or politics ... especially because the Iranians are backing Hamas against the Palestinian Authority.

Sometimes, it's just nice to have confirmation. Sometimes, it's critical.

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Ecuador Offer WikiLeaks a Home
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Deputy Foreign Minister of Ecuador, Kintto Lucas, has offered asylum to Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks.

Lucas announced to the local media that they were searching for Assange and praised Assange for his investigative skills.

Ecuador may want Assange to come to Ecuador, to live in Ecuador and to speak about Wikileaks but there is almost no chance that Assange will take them up on the offer.

Ecuador is making an important anti-US point. Ecuador thinks that leaking the documents hurt the United States and in their eyes, that is behavior worth rewarding.

Ecuador is part of the left wing block of South American countries. That group includes Venezuela and Bolivia. The United States has no friends in that group.

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Wiki Leaks No Big Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesdday November 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

About the WikiLeaks

I don't find the fact that this information has been leaked unsettling.

Why? Everyone realizes that these things happen.

What I do find disturbing is that so much of the so-called "intel" is opinion, not fact.

That is truly troubling.

We should not be up in arms about the leaks.

Much of information could have been deduced by closely following each story. There were real-time leaks and rumors about many of the issues covered in regional and international press.

The unprofessional documents, writings and irresponsible requests should be brought to our - the public's - attention and to the attention of watchdog groups.

There is no place for ad hominem attack in diplomacy and intelligence.

Sadly, it appears that so much US foreign policy intel which was gathered and interpreted abroad is nothing more than opinion and personal feelings.

It is not intel and it is not analysis. It is not even raw information

These leaks allow tens of thousands more people - journalists, analysts and John Q. Public - to pour over the material.

The NYTimes was correct and showed responsible judgment in redacting confidential sources and the names of people who may be put in danger.

All this info is most probably available due to new hacking techniques.

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Terror in Portland
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

About: the Foiled Portland Terror Plot
aka a non-event turned into a successful publicity stunt for the Feds

The whole story highlights and is emblematic of some of the biggest problems with counter terror:
Was it important that they found, caught and arrested this 19 year old potential terrorist?
Certainly.
But ...
Like in so many cases, the "terrorist" had the bomb because the feds provided him with a bomb.
Yes ...
He had the will to murder masses, but had no ability and no technical skills to garner the money or the means to perpetrate an attack on his own.

I am not suggesting that he was entrapped.
But ...
If I was his lawyer, that would be my strategy - there would not have been any potential terror planned, had the Feds not provided the "terrorist" with all the necessary accoutrements to plan an attack.

The most important part of any terror bust is to find the connections to bigger fish and future cells - to get leads to controllers and operators outside the country and their links and organizations here at home.

This bust shows the dangers of the lone wolf and the intelligence limitations of the lone wolf. We have gained nothing other taking a would be killer off the streets on an attempted mass murder charge.

Plastering the story on the front pages does help raise awareness.
In other words, this was a non-event and a successful publicity stunt for the feds.

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Elections Today in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Parliamentary elections are being held in Egypt today.

Official Egyptian government sources say that all is fair and that everything is in order - but international observers are up in arms.

Only 10% of those observers who requested permission have been permitted to observe anything in the polling stations.

Not only have opposition candidates complained of harassment - but those observers who did receive permission have also experienced pressure and intimidation.

There is little doubt about the role of democracy in Egypt. The world is watching and the Western world wants Egypt to liberalize - but that is highly unlikely.

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Jew in Bahrain's Upper Chamber
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain gets it.

Bahrain understands the dynamic and complexity of tradition in the modern world.

Yesterday King Khalifa appointed four women to serve on the Upper Chamber of the Shura, the equivalent of the consulting wing of Bahrain's parliament.

Of the four women: two were Muslim, one was Christian and one was Jewish.

The Shura itself is composed of 40 members - 30 members were invited to return and 10 were replaced.

The recent elections for Bahrain's Lower Chamber were also significant. The Lower Chamber is balanced by the Upper Chamber and, all in all, they serve to lend voice to and advise Malik al Bahrain, the King.

Despite their openness on certain issues, despite their understanding on blending modern and traditional values - moves for which they should be recognized and applauded, Bahrain is still a monarchy.

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Canada Says No to Durban III
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The UN has decided to create a Durban III Conference to be held next September 21, 2011.

Durban was created to fight racism and turned into an anti- Israel and anti-Semitic festival.

Canada has already declared that they will not participate in Durban III. Canadian Immigration Minister Jason Kenney declared that they have lost faith in the Durban process.
"Canada is clearly committed to the fight against racism, but the Durban process commemorates an agenda that actually promotes racism rather than combats it."

Durban III is worth watching. Watching who participates and watching how countries respond will be useful in understanding racism.

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PA Says Jewish History at Wall
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Here are a few comments from the newly released five page official report of the Palestinian Authority about the Jewish connection to the Western Wall.

The author of the study is Al-Mutawakil Taha, deputy minister of information. The study itself, which is published on the official website of the Palestinian Authority, totally rejects any connection of Jewish history to the Wall or anywhere on the Temple Mount. It suggests that all of the history of the area is Muslim and Arab.

"This wall has never been a part of what is called the Jewish Temple."
Explaining why Muslims permitted Jews to pray at the Wall the paper asserts:
"it was Islamic tolerance which allowed the Jews to stand before it and cry over its loss."

No serious historian or archeologist promotes this thesis. And yet, it is the official point of view of the Palestinian Authority.

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Praying For Rain
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a drought in the Middle East. Rainfall is down 30%. And in Israel, Jews, Christians and Muslims are gathering to pray for rain.

The situation is so dire that the Chief Rabbinate has proclaimed a fast day. And yesterday 30 Jewish, Christian and Muslim women participated in a silent walk during which they visited important sites and at each stop, they prayed for rain.

There is a direct link between rain water and comfort and life in the Middle East.
Wells and reservoirs are filled by rainwater.
Irrigation and agriculture are dependant on rain.
Underground aquifers filter rain water and fill up water sources that provide drinking water for the region.
Rain water flows into and fills up lakes and rivers.

Today, even atheists in the Middle East are praying for rain.

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Iran Shuts Down Centrifuges
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iranians have shut down thousands of their uranium centrifuges.
Iranian nuclear enrichment has ground to a halt.
Iranian diplomats told AP about this nuclear crisis.

The Stuxnet computer worm has begun to take its toll. The objective of the worm was to knock out only the Iranian nuclear program - without hurting anything else. The great part of the worm is that it cannot be scanned, searched or quarantined.

The worm lies dormant until you turn on the nuclear program and then it disappears again after it has done its disruptive duty.

The Stuxnet may actually be the silver bullet, the bullet that everyone said never existed.

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Ahmadinejad Wants 16 Year Olds to Marry
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It's important to listen to the statements made by world leaders. By listening we can learn a lot about a people, a country, a society.

Yesterday Iranian President Ahmadinejad announced in the official press that girls should marry at age 16 and 17.

He was quoted as saying, "we should take the age of marriage for boys to 20 and for girls to about 16 and 17."

Ahmadinejad was responding to the new reality in Iran.

The average age of marriage in Iran is now 24to 26 years old. For Ahmadinejad an increase in the average age at which Iranian citizens marry is a sign of the religious degeneration of Iran. It is a symbol of the West's victory over the Islamic Republic.

Ahmadinejad has to respond. Ahmadinejad is calling on Iranians to return to their traditional ways.

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PA Study Is Distrubing
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 21. 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A recent study of the Palestinian public had very disturbing results.

58% of Palestinians felt the need to support armed struggle.
Armed struggle is a synonym for terror.

30% favored a two state solution.
60% chose an intermediate answer which says: "the real goal should be to start with two states but then move it to all being one Palestinian state."

Only 36% believe that direct talks are the only way to achieve a real solution.

This is deeply troubling.
It suggests that the Palestinian people are not primed for peace.
It suggests that Palestinian leadership has failed to set the groundwork for negotiations and for a peaceful mutual settlement.
It does not bode well for peace.

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Egypt is Insulted by the US
By Micah Halpern

Blog

Friday November 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a statement yesterday saying that the country was "dismayed" by the US call to send international monitors to observe their upcoming elections.

The statement implied that the United States was interfering in Egyptian domestic affairs. The US has neither rights nor any role in policing the inner workings of Egypt.

Egypt is suggesting that the US is not treating them like a friend but like a banana republic. They are suggesting that the United States is disrespecting Egypt - the society the leaders and the people. This type of disrespect unites a society against the West and helps to nurture anti-American sentiment.

If Egyptian leadership is stoking this narrative, it means they are posturing in order to create serious anti-America feeling. It means they are trying to sway the anti-Western vote away from the Muslim Brotherhood by demonstrating that they are even more anti-Western than the Brotherhood.

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White House Won't Put it in Writing
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The White House and most of the Western press were excited about Israel's decision to halt settlement activity in the West Bank for 90 days - but the celebration may be premature.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convinced his cabinet to support the proposal with several conditions - but he did it with only a slim majority.

Israel wants the proposal in writing from the White House.

Israel is saying that they need the terms that Netanyahu and Secretary of State Clinton ironed out in NYC last Thursday during their 7.5 hour long meeting on paper.

Israel will not make the decision to stop building unless the agreement is put in a letter signed either by the President or someone else of import in the White House.

The White House is reluctant to put this agreement in writing.

The White House finds the part about not ever again asking Israel to freeze settlement activity particularly problematic.

So now we wait.

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Peace Deal is Doubtful
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US is very happy about Israel's decision to halt settlement construction for 90 days.

But there are some real obstacles - on both sides.

The Arab League made a public statement that they do not believe that a 90 day moratorium would be well received either by Palestinian leadership or by Arab leadership or by the Arab League.

Arab leadership is signaling that stopping settlement building for 90 days is not going to have a real positive impact on real the peace process.

In Israel it will be very difficult to enforce the government's narrowly supported decision to stop building. Actually, if it was hard for Israel to police the building during the previous moratorium, this time it will be nearly impossible. There are not enough inspectors and there will be numerous protests preventing army forces from supporting the inspectors.

And you know what? The United States is oblivious to it all.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran to Begin War Games
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that they will conduct 5 days of war games beginning this Tuesday. They promised to unveil new, home made missiles proving that the Iranians do not need the Russia S-300.

We will be watching these maneuvers.

Iran will strut like a peacock. Even if there are misfires and failures, the Iranians will proclaim these games a great success.

Iran is constantly engaging in these war games. Last November they conducted similar tests. In September, they conducted war games in the Caspian Sea. In October, they joined Turkey and China in a set of war games that should have sent the Western world for a double loop.

The West is not investing enough time, energy or thought into the back story of Iran. These maneuvers are very much an integral part of that story.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Israel Proposal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There are serious murmurings about a 90 day Israeli building moratorium. So serious, that the story has been reported by most of news organizations.

It looks like a deal is being hammered out between Israel and the United States.

Israel will cease building for 90 days and the United States:
will veto all anti-Israel proposals in the UN
will deliver Israel 20 of the most sophisticated F-35 fighter jets valued at $3 billion
will not ask for another settlement stop

It is a good deal for Israel.
It is a terrible deal for the United States.
It is a horrific deal for the Palestinian Authority.

The PA will never be able to agree to anything - no less a peace treaty in the 90 days: they failed during the 10 month moratorium that ended in September
they have not even set the stage with their people acclimating them to the idea that a treaty with Israel is possible
they have no real sense of comprise on any issue.
their stance is all or nothing - or we go straight to the Security Council

The United States, which is supporting both the PA and Israel will lose all leverage with both sides after the 90 days. The PA wants a perpetual stoppage of all building with no exceptions. The US can only get a short term solution to that. There is no possible way to bring the sides together and in agreement in such a short time.

The entire suggestion is ludicrous and dangerous. Once again, the United States is displaying extreme myopia in predicting, anticipating, and understanding what might happen next. This kind of a deal is almost 100% sure to fail. The United States has not thought this through.

It is a win - win for Israel.
Israel gets everything and gives only a 3 month moratorium.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Kuwait Freezes Iran's Assets
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait has frozen all of Iran's assets.

This is a huge boon for those trying to impose sanctions on Iran. Getting Kuwait to join that group will empower other, less secure countries, to join the move to implement sanctions against Iran and to freeze Iran's accounts.

Kuwait may be a tiny little country, but the policies of Kuwait pack a punch.

Iran has always relied on the anti-Western feelings that permeate the Middle East. Combining that reliance with the intrinsic Middle East nature of not rocking the boat had Iran believing that her neighbors will not seriously join the sanctions.

Kuwait has changed that dynamic.

In this case, Iran overplayed its hand. Iran is now more and more isolated, not just from the West, but also from Middle East neighbors.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Vows to Help Nigeria
By Micah Halpern

November 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:
The Foreign Minister of Iran, Manouchehr Mottaki, met with Nigerian Foreign Minister Odein Ajumogobia in Nigeria yesterday.

Iran promised to help Nigeria investigate the weapon shipment that was discovered in Lagos 2 weeks ago. The shipment was sent from Iran en route to Hamas in Gaza. There were rockets grenades and much more.

The 13 containers did not have the proper paperwork. The company that packaged them said everything was in order. The paperwork was in English. Nigeria asked Iran for its help and that requests packs a wallop.

Nigeria is a major player in OPEC. Nigerian security police understands Iran. The Nigerians have both a distrustful and useful relationship with Iran. Iran is also acutely aware of the need to deal with Nigeria with respect. A missed step could jeopardize Iran's standing and further alienate her in the Arab world.

This is a very important interaction to monitor.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Pledges $150 Million to the PA
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just promised the Palestinians another $150 million dollars.

On Wednesday Clinton had a video conference with Palestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayed. In the conversation Fayed explained how the Palestinians are expanding services and making preparations for statehood.

She then promised to help out and give them $150 million.

The US is deeply involved in resurrecting face to face direct talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Both Obama and Clinton have expressed disappointment in Israel for announcing that 1300 new apartments will be built in Jerusalem.

The United States wants the moratorium on building to become the new status quo because that's the way the Palestinians want it, the Palestinians want to stop all building.

A new status quo should be the objective of the negotiations, not the pre-condition.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Obama Critiques Israel from Abroad
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

From far away in the Far East President Obama articulated a serious critique of Israel's decision to build in Jerusalem. And yet from that same place, the president was silent on Iran.

Obama and his administration have been critical and even over critical of Israel ever since assuming office.

They have acquiesced to Iran and have been neither as strident nor as aggressive as they should have been against Iran.

It is a lopsided and unfair standard. It works because Israel is flexible and the rest of the Middle East is intransigent. Iran will not give in. The US knows that.
The Palestinians will not budge. The US knows that.

The United States pressures Israel because the US knows that Israel will give in --- and that fact is what best epitomizes the relationship between Israel and the US vis a vis the peace discussions.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Will Meet in Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish President Abdullah Gul has announced that he expects that the international nuclear meeting will take place soon and it will take place in Turkey.

That's news because the meeting is supposed to take place in November and take place somewhere in Europe. Participating in the meeting will be Iran and the P5+1, the permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany.

So why inTurkey? Because Iran has said that they will meet in Turkey and nowhere else.

Originally, Iran had said that they would not be participating in the Conference at all. But over the weekend Iran's Foreign Minister announced a change of heart and said that they will talk with the West - in Turkey. Iran shifted the venue to get some home court advantage.

Again, so why in Turkey? Because Turkey voted for Iran in the Security Council and rejected the newest sanctions against Iran.

UN Secretary General Ban announced on Monday that the UN cannot say that Iran's nuclear technology is peaceful.

Iran was insulted and now they want to make certain that Iranian advances in nuclear material are not ceased.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Al Qaeda Threatens Christians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda threatens much more than the West. Al Qaeda threatens world leaders and other populations of the Middle East.

Al Qaeda is now threatening to attack the Christian Copts of Egypt. Al Qadea is seeking to avenge the honor of women that they claim to have been kidnapped by the Copts after converted to Islam.

There are 8 million Christian Copts in Egypt out of a total population of 79 million. President Mubarak has promised to protect the Copts from al Qaeda. Of course, that is a ridiculous promise because Al Qaeda is also constantly threatening Egypt. In fact, Egypt is already on high alert against al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda wants to oust Mubarak from power, al Qaeda wants to attack any and all leaders who do not embrace the al Qaeda version of Islam.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



England Israel in A Potenital Fight
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There are changes taking place in the very important strategic summit scheduled to be held between Israel and the United Kingdom.

First, the summit was postponed. Now the location has been changed. The summit was supposed to take place in England and it will now take place in Israel.

The reason is that British law has incorporated the "universal jurisdiction law" that permits British courts to arrest, charge and place on trial human rights violatorswho can then be tried in England.

Most recently, Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor was forced to change plans regarding a trip to England after being warned that once there, he was going to be arrested. Earlier in the year, Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak scoffed at the threats and made his official trip anyway.

There have been cases when retired Israeli generals were advised to remain on their ELAL plane because arrest warrants were in the hands of British police waiting in the airport them to disembark.

England has promised to rescind this law in parliament ... but they have not. If the law is not rescinded and rescinded soon diplomatic tensions will boil over. The diplomatic pot is bubbling.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Saudis Say Iran is Explosive
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis have declared that Iran's quest towards enriching uranium and their pursuit of nuclear technology is heading down an "explosive" path.

The term "explosive" is a quote from the former Saudi Ambassador to Great Britain and the United States, Prince Turki al Faisal.

Prince Turki is currently the Commissioner of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. He is also the former head of Saudi intelligence. He is a son of the previous king, a nephew of the current king and the brother of the current foreign minister.

Turki's comments are not tangential. They should be understood to be the official policy of the King of Saudi Arabia even if the King's name is not mentioned in the statement.

An important element in understanding the workings of a monarchy is determining which voices hold weight and which voices do not hold weight.

On issues of nuclear development, especially Iran's nuclear development, Prince Turki al Faisal is the voice that is heard inside the Saudi palace and the voice that should, therefore, be listened to outside the palace.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Yemen Gets Help From the US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US is now obsessed with threats from Yemen.
The US has just given Yemen $150 million to organize and fight terror.

It is a total waste of money for more reasons than you can imagine.

Yemen is one of the most disorganized, corrupt, bureaucratic societies in the Middle East. That says something because the Middle East is the Mecca of corruption.

See for yourself.

Google the online pictures of the Customs Mail Hold in Yemen. They actually show you rooms with packages and envelopes scattered all over the floor and heaped in piles without any hope of organization.

Despite this - it is still essential that we keep all channels with Yemen open and hospitable and that we at least try to make certain that the leaders of Yemen keep trying to fight terror any which way they can.

The United States needs Yemen - Yemen has info and Yemen has access.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Terror on the Rise
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Explosions and threats and false alarms are spreading like a plague in Europe.

Five embassies in Greece were targeted with real bombs.

A bomb in front of the Swiss Embassy blew up, no one was injured.

A bomb attack on German Chancellor Angela Merkel which was disarmed by sappers tops the list as the most high profile and most dangerous of all the attacks.

There's more: a Lufthansa flight from Germany en route to Tel Aviv landed in Greece because no one claimed a plastic bottle of iced tea. In the end it was simply iced tea.

Two more cargo packages were discovered in the Athens airport.
18 bombs exploded in Iraq.

The terrorist are working overtime.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Cancelling Flights from Yemen
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Countries are starting to respond to the ink cartridge bomb threats.

The most drastic response came from Germany. Germany has stopped all commercial flights from Yemen. That includes tourist and cargo aircraft.

Yesterday Canada banned all cargo flights originating from Yemen.

The thinking behind the Canadian decision is that Yemen cannot and does not check the packages that are sent - and that makes the risk too high. The risk is higher still because the reality is that most cargo is sent not on cargo planes, but on commercial, passenger-filled, planes.

Canada and Germany are correct. Unless packages, like passengers, are rigorously checked they should not be permitted aboard planes.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



New Terror Threat
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The ink cartridge bombs on UPS cargo planes out of Yemen that were discovered in Britain and the United Arab Emirates should raise concern and remind us that our security apparatus must be on constant alert.

Honestly, this was to be expected.

Within the world of security the literature has discussed this very situation for years. In this instance, intelligence was passed on to the United States via the Saudis. Cargo planes have always been a weak link and only recently have security and screening been shored up.

The vast majority of cargo leaving foreign countries travels on commercial planes - not cargo planes. That seems to have been exactly what happened in this case. Very little of that cargo is subject to inspection and what inspection there is, is not standardized. An envelope leaving Israel is not checked like an envelope sent from Dubai.

In this style of attack dry runs are always the precursor to the real thing. That is exactly what was happening here. Terrorists were testing us.

The other weak point is sea ports - security in the ports must be improved. This is an alarm, this is a wakeup call.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Hezbollah Has Re-Armed
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The French paper Le Figaro has detailed the path through which Syria provides Hezbollah with weapons and support.

It was the best short analysis of the subject I have read on the subject.

According to Le Figaro "Hezbollah has been able to completely rehabilitate its weapons caches, tunneling under the Syrian / Lebanese border, in an effort to create escape route for its operative, in case of another altercation with Israel."

Hezbollah has 40,000 missiles and rockets in Lebanon and 10,000 trained troops. That number includes navy divers. The machinery is delivered from Syria but the training is provided by Iran.

The report is news worthy - it is obviously a product of French intelligence gathering and analysis.

The leaders of French Intelligence are issuing a warning to the West. The leaders of French Intelligence clearly want the world to understand that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are preparing for war. We should pay attention.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran is Exporting Gasoline Now
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Things are changing in Iran and the Iranians could not be happier. Unfortunately, what is good for Iran is not necessarily good for the West.

It's official. It's been confirmed that Iran has begun exporting gasoline. In fact, $36 million worth of gasoline was recently exported from Iran to Afghanistan and Armenia.

I reported the original announcement out of Iran several months ago, but at that time the story was still unconfirmed. I discussed Iran's plans to open new refineries and to update old ones. And I reported Iran's decision to move into the realm of gas exporting.

This news shows us that Iran has made the conversion successfully and will now be oil independent. Not long ago Iran imported 40%-50% of its gasoline because they could not refine it. Today they are not only refining they are exporting.

The oil embargo on Iran, while not quit a moot point yet, now has very little efficacy.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



White House Trip Offends China etal
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On November 5th President Obama embarks on a 10 day trip to Asia.

Major players are insulted that he will not be dropping in.

Obama will be in India for three and a half days and not stop by in Pakistan at all. This trip to India is the longest stint Obama has had in any country since assuming office.

He will also visit Indonesia, South Korea and Japan.

Pakistan is upset and seriously slighted. But that's nothing compared to China, another country not on the President's itinerary. Who does Obama thinks he is, the Chinese are asking, we are after all only the country that holds the US debt.

The White House says no offense is intended. Of course not, but these countries are still offended.

This is not the first time Obama has inadvertently created tension. When Obama was in the Middle East, he went out of his way to avoid Israel - and no offense was intended there, either. It was just the first time a US president was in the region and did not visit Israel.

US Presidential trips are supposed to cement foreign relations, not destroy them.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Mohammed Top Name in England
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The list of most popular baby names in England during 2009 was released recently.
Topping the list were Oliver, Jack and Harry.

Mohammed was on the list in 12 different variations. It placed 16th and 32nd with a grand total of 7,549 little British babies carrying the name. Top rated Oliver only had 7,364 boys carrying that name.

It might not have been the official # 1 on the list, but in effect, Mohammed was the most popular name given to boys in England last year. The significance is enormous.

Unlike Oliver and Jack and Harry, only Muslims name their children Mohammed. Granted, 706,248 children were born in Britain last year and little more than half were girls - that means 7,500 out of 350,000 children were named Mohammed.

The most popular name does not mean the name given to most children. It speaks to a more powerful element. An explosion of Muslim life and culture is taking place in the United Kingdom. Names are just another way to prove the point.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US OK with Busher Nuke Plant
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is not all concerned about the opening of the Iranian nuclear power plant Busher. So unconcerned that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that it is Iran's secret plants, not Busher that concern the US.

"Our problem is not with their reactor at Busher, our problem is with their facilities at places like Natanz and their secret facility at Qom and other places where we believe they are conducting their weapons program."

The logic is scary and misguided - it is also but understandable.

Any nuclear facility developed and opened in Iran is dangerous - Busher or Qom they are all dangerous and they can all lead to potentially frightening outcomes.

The United States is making a very big mistake here.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Saudi Russian Nuke Deal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with Russia to develop nuclear energy - in Saudi Arabia.

One single source has alerted us to this agreement to which will develop atomic energy and atomic energy only i.e. non-military nukes.

Until now Saudi Arabia has been conflicted on the issue of nukes. The Saudi King was against nukes, his defense minister was in favor. But the Saudis have initiated several serious steps toward becoming a nuclear power in the past.

This move by Saudi Arabia comes as a direct response to Iran's nuclear development.

The Saudis cannot be left in a weak nuclear position relative to Iran.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Sudanese Fleeing to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Periodically I repeat myself. I do so because the topic is either so unusual or so important that it warrants repetition.

On Sunday the Egyptian police arrested 55 Sudanese refugees attempting to escape to Israel to find work and a better life. 40 men, 9 women and 6 children were found in a truck making its way from the Sudan through Egypt on the way to Sinai where they would meet the smugglers who would bring them into Israel.

On Saturday another 10 refugees were stopped.

The 1979 Camp David Peace Accords require that the 157 mile Israeli/Egyptian border be patrolled by 750 policemen and not a single policeman more.

These Sudanese refugees were caught in a truck crossing into Sinai. In the past many of these people looking for a better life have been shot by Egyptians as they try to escape and find refuge in Israel.

I know that it is mind boggling ... Muslim risking their lives in order to enter the Jewish State. Theodor Herzl could never have envisioned this turn of events.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Bahrain Elections ?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 24, 2010

I'm Predicting:

Bahrain held elections yesterday. Well, sort of elections. Bahranians cast their votes for their 40 seat Lower Parliament. 318,000 eligible voters were asked to select from the 140 candidates standing for election.

Do not kid yourself - there is no democracy in Bahrain. The people might elect the Lower Parliament, but there is also an Upper Parliament of 40 all appointed by the King. The Prime Minister is the King's uncle and has been in position since 1971.

In Bahrain the royal family has been in place since 1783 and they are not about to give up that place. The royal family of Bahrain is Sunni, 60%-70% of the people of Bahrain are Shiite.

Bahrain is a strong US ally in the region and the US Navy's 5th Fleet is hosted there. But despite its periodic liberal tone, Bahrain is not a democracy.

There has been serious tension in Bahrain recently and many Shiites have been arrested. Shiites are arguing that they are being discriminated against when it comes to getting jobs. The largest employer in Bahrain is the defense system and the armed forces has almost entirely purged of Shiites. Today only about 3% of the army is Shiite and they are all in low level positions. The army was purged to solidify and prevent potential insurrection, revolt and coup.

There is very little chance that Bahrain will change and liberalize on its own in the near future. And there is very little chance of a successful overthrow of the regime. Do not expect to see any change from Bahrain.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Carter Meets with Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Elders Organization is a group of former international leaders. The group visited the Middle East this week. Leading the group were former US President Jimmy Carter and former Irish President Mary Robinson.

The Elders Organization met with Hamas leaders in both Syria and in Gaza and then proclaimed that Hamas must be part of any settlement,

In Israel they met with Knesset Speaker Rivlin and with Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor. The Israeli leaders delivered a similar straightforward line and explained that speaking to Hamas legitimizes terror and hurts the Palestinian Authority. They also conveyed Israel's point of view of that by meeting with Hamas, the Israelis are seen as irresponsible.

Carter and Robinson, of course, responded that while they met with Hamas, they in no way justify terror.

Carter and Robinson are way out of the general mainstream - so far out in left field that they still do not understand how going to Hamas weakens Palestinian leadership under Abbas.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Saudis Make US Deal and Talk to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States just signed a $60 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia.
The United States asserts that Israel was read into the deal and gave their approval.

The bulk of deal is the upgrading of existing F-16s and the delivery of seven new 747's filled with modern tech devises for command and control tools.

A deal of this kind should have been expected. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the US and has the money to pay for the weapons.

What is unexpected and inexplicable is that the day after signing the deal, the King of Saudi Arabia spoke by phone with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

The Saudis and the Iranians are not allies. These two nations symbolize a huge rift in Islam between Sunnis and Shiites. This division is one of the reasons the United States has been cultivating the Saudis.

Obviously, the situation is far from being mono-dimensional.
Clearly, Saudi Arabia has other items on its agenda.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Chavez Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday, October 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Guess who is visiting Iran? Chavez.

Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez is visiting Iran for three days. Actually, this is his 9th trip to Iran.

On Iranian TV Ahmadinejad announced that "Iran and Venezuela are united to establish a new world order based on humanity and justice."

Chavez is quoted in the Venezuelan state news agency as saying "Imperialism has entered a decisive phase of decline and ... is headed, like elephants, to its graveyard."

From this exchange alone it should be clear that Ahmadinejad and Chavez have an agenda. That agenda is to topple the Western world and change the world order. That agenda is to anoint themselves as the leaders of the new order.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russia Now Wants the Missile Shield
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Remember how the Russians were so upset over the planned European missile shield?

Well, now it seems that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is thinking that it may be a good idea after all - such a good idea that Russia may actually participate.

Yesterday Medvedev said that he was considering the idea. He also said that he was going to attend the NATO meeting in Portugal from November 19-20. US President Barak Obama will be there as well and there is little doubt that the missile shield will be on their agenda.

This is how world politics evolves, it is how policy changes. Not six months ago Russia was nearly about to go to war over the missile shield.

In world politics things change quickly. In this case, the change was brought about because the Russian assessment of the Iranian threat has changed.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iraqi PM Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is trolling for support.

Yesterday Maliki visited Iran. He is trying to shore up strength and end the period of limbo that the Iraqi government has been struggling through since their March elections where no clear victor emerged.

Maliki heads the Shiite coalition and he needs support from Shiite Iran.

The Iraqi leader has also appealed to other neighbors, but Iran is probably the most important neighbor of all. This was Maliki's first visit to Teheran since the elections.

How's this for a plot twist? Iran may be the country that brings calm and security to Iraq.
Frightening, truly frightening.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran's Biggest Fear
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The real worry about the new worm that is affecting Iran is not how many computers are now disabled.

The Iranians know that they were hit very hard and that about a million computers were affected. They know that it will take enormous amounts of time and energy to rid the computers of the worm -if they can even do that at all.

The biggest fear is that the worm will lie dormant. That it will remain undetected until the machinery that has been infected is fired up and used.

That means that the Iranians will have no idea if their missile system will even fly - let alone fly straight and hit the target until the missiles have been shot. India's satellite system was not even the target of the worm and 12 of 24 of India's transponders were totally shut down by the worm.

Iran's real fear is that this worm is a more effective weapon than anyone can even imagine. Iran is correct to be afraid.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Jordan's Slow Economic Growth
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah spoke at a technology conference in Jordan yesterday.

Abdullah blames Jordan's slow tech growth on the tensions in the Middle East. His thesis is that if there was a treaty between Israel and the Palestinians, his economy would grow.

The Jordanians recently invested $2.2 billion in high tech - and they want to see an immediate return on the investment.

Yahoo recently bought a Jordanian company called Maktoob, the largest Arab on line information company.

There are 3 huge mistakes in Abdullah's analysis.
# 1: Jordan is only indirectly connected to the conflict and although they are affected, they are not a primary party.
#2: Most of the $2.2 billion was simply infrastructure, not creative investment. Tech booms do not result from having a computer and turning it on. To create a boom you create a service that people want to buy.
# 3: This is Abdullah's biggest mistake - the conflict has not slowed Israel's growth. The Israeli economy is outstripping even the US over the past few years. (Of course, one can argue that if there was peace the Israeli economy would be even better)

The reason Jordan's economy is in the tubes is that it has not been infused with any real creativity - instead, it is heavily control by the monarchy. Abdullah is as wily as he is smart, but here, he has created a recipe for failure.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Is Disappointed in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has expressed disappointment over construction and building in the Israeli West Bank. The Palestinians have called the building an affront to the United States' diplomatic objective. The Egyptians are saying that the Israelis are not honoring the 30 day extension given to the US in order to come to an agreement about the building freeze.

Say what you want, none of it makes any sense.

There is no freeze because the time limit of the agreement expired. Did the US, Egypt and the Palestinians expect that the grace period about the freeze would also constitute a freeze?

The US now wants a continuation and has asked the Arab League to grant what would constitute another 30 day extension. Once again, the Arab League is deciding whether to advise the Palestinians to stay or to walk away from these direct talks with Israel.

What does everyone expect? How can this period be considered a non-building period when the freeze expired and now the topic under consideration is a new freeze?

This period falls under the old status quo - the status quo which permits building.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ahmadinejad Ends His Lebanon Trip
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad concluded his visit to Lebanon with a meeting at the Iranian Embassy with Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah presented Ahmadinejad with a gun. Not just any gun, this gun was taken from an Israeli soldier during the Second Lebanon War.

After Ahmadinejad left Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza issued a statement saying that they, too, wish the Iranian President would visit them in Gaza. They realize, of course that it would be very dangerous for Ahmadinejad to come to Gaza but simply by making public their sentiment they made their point.

This entire episode surrounding Ahmadinejad says everything about how the teams break down.

Team One is aligned with Iran and includes Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran also enjoys the support of a very large but silent group, a group that shares Iran's disdain for the West.

Team Two is everyone else. Unfortunately this side, the West, is unprepared to effectively deal with Iran and is helpless against Iran's plans to unify Team One and to undermine US influence around the world.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ahmadinejad Is in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad arrived in Lebanon yesterday. This trip will advance several Iranian agendas.

One item on the agenda is to stir the pot of anti-Western sentiment, another is to unify the Muslim world.

Ahmadinejad delivered a speech in suburban Beirut. His presentation was compelling, dynamic and very well received. The central theme of Ahmadinejad's speech can be synopsized in this one quote: "Lebanon is a school of resistance and perseverance against tyrants."

The tyrants he is speaking about are Obama, Netanyahu, Sarkozy and every other leader of a Western nation. The students of the "school of resistance" are the kids of Lebanon.

For Ahmadinejad this entire trip to Lebanon is a way of recruiting terrorists for anti-American attacks.

Ahmadinejad wants to try to humiliate the West and Israel. He does this by riling up the Lebanese to fight and to resist. He does this by touring Southern Lebanon and by symbolically attacking Israel.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Agrees with Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US State Department came out with a statement yesterday that was exactly in line with Israel's position on the issue of Israel as the Jewish State. This should not come as a surprise.

The position of the United States was enunciated very clearly in a statement made by State Department Spokesman P. J. Crawley: "I'm not making any news here. We recognize the special nature of the Israeli state. It is a state for the Jewish people. It is a state for other citizens of other faiths as well."

I have said it time and time again, but it bears repeating now - in most cases and this during this recent round of negotiation is no exception, the United States and Israel see eye to eye on almost every issue. When Israel compromises, the US sees it a s a reasonable diplomatic move.

The clincher is that precisely because Israel does make compromises the United States will pressure the Israelis for more compromises. It is all part of the game. The Palestinians give little to almost nothing and Israel must compromise on hugely significant issues.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



IRA Found Stocking Terror Supplies
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Irish police have recently made several critical discoveries and arrests.

They arrested nearly two dozen people - all with links to terror groups. The groups were planning attacks for the IRA.

They uncovered a significant IRA arms cache with guns and explosives and materials with which to build a bomb lab.

The entire scenario does not portend well.

The fact that there are so many people organizing terror attacks and collecting weapons points clearly to the fact that the IRA is back in the terror business.

The IRA had agreed to stop all terror activities. They lied.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Che Visits Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Che Guevara was the symbol of revolution. His face was on t-shirts and hats and posters across the world. Che, as he is called, was the person who, together with Castro, was going to change the world.

So when Che's daughter Aleida meets with Sheik Nayim Kassam, the second most important person in all of Hezbollah - all of us should cringe. The whole scary scenario ratchets up when the meeting takes place in Southern Lebanon.

Aleida met the Hezbollah leader Kassam to discuss their shared mission "to fight the occupation" and to "fight colonialism." That, of course, means: confront Israel.

There was more to the meeting than shared ideology. Aleida was presented with an oil painting portrait of her father joining forces with Imad Mugneyah, the Hezbollah leader assassinated in Damascus.

Che's legacy still resonates throughout the world.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Gilad Shalit Was Nearly Freed
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

For Israel, finding and rescuing kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit is a national priority.

So when Hamas discovered that one of their most trusted people was an asset for Israel they were furious.
Israel has retrieved their informant, but the Israelis still did not have enough intelligence to locate and launch an operation to save Shalit.

The informant was the Hamas person responsible for communications. He inserted Israel's electronic bugs in the Hamas phones. It provided great information, but not enough information.
Unfortunately for Israel, these kidnappers do not use cell phones.

Unfortunately, the new information is one step removed from Shalit.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russia Pays Iran for Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A few weeks ago Russia announced that they were reneging on their deal to sell S-300 advanced missiles to Iran.

Russia admitted that the sale of the S-300 weapons to Iran would be a violation of the international sanctions agreed upon by the UN Security Council.

History has taught us that what the Russians say they are going to do is not always what they really do.

And yet, on Thursday, Russia announced that will pay back the $800 million that Iran had transferred over to them for the missile purchase.

This effectively means that the deal is now truly null and void.
The Iranians are livid. They cannot believe that the Russians would collapse under such modest international pressure. It was really only the Israelis and the United States exerting pressure to stop the deal.

The S-300 would have dictated the timetable of an attack against Iran and would have limited the potential success of any operation. In the final analysis, this is very good news.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Guns N' Roses to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The band Guns N' Roses is scheduled to perform two concerts in Tel Aviv, Israel.

The first concert is scheduled for December 18th, the second the day after on the 19th.

Any band deciding to perform in Israel does so for several reasons. Chief among those reasons is a deep seated belief in democracy and freedom.

Any band coming to Israel, even a band as successful and popular as Guns N'Roses, will come under ugly attack. The band will pay the price for their show of support to Israel in Europe will, inevitably, there will be huge protests against them.

In the end, Guns N'Roses sides with Israel. In the end, culture triumphs. In the end, democracy will in.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



DC Leaks About Terror Threat
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama and the members of his inner circle are upset by the very many daily leaks to the media, links emanating from Washington and broadcast the world over.

James Clapper. Director of National Intelligence, said that officials and bureaucrats in DC get "their jollies" by leaking to reporters.

Intelligence leaks flooding through DC about the terror threat for Americans have created a terrible diplomatic situation for not only for America but also for her friends in Europe.

The kicker is that there is not even a specific threat - just a general threat that is wreaking all this havoc.

Obama promised that his administration would not leak. Now we have an example of a vague leak that is causing terrible damage.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



They Agree But How
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Three world leaders have said that peace between Israel and the Palestinians is essential, they said that this is an opportunity that cannot be missed.

Former President Bill Clinton was the first to voice this observation. He said that a peace deal would "undercut" terror around the world.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said that a peace deal must be reached now more than ever. Mubarak was speaking at an event marking the 37th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

Jordanian King Abdullah called the Israeli Prime Minister and said that not reaching an agreement could be catastrophic for the region.

All three statements were made yesterday, but this was not a pre-planned, coordinated effort. None of these comments are unique to the players.

The issue is not whether peace is a good or even if a treaty can be signed.
The issue is whether both sides have the wherewithal to follow through with the peace if it can be achieved.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Abu Dhabi Invests in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Fortunes are often made through investing in developing areas. Fortunes are also lost.
Iraq is about to become one of those developing areas.

The politics of Iraq are starting to settle down. It looks like a coalition might be emerging, a coalition that is setting the stage for a "new Iraq."

A company from Abu Dhabi called AD Invests and is the official investor of the Emirate. AD Invests has called out to the West claiming that they will enable people and companies to invest in Iraq. AD Invests will facilitate foreign investment in Iraq - especially in Iraq's developing oil program. Iraq's oil industry is at a very important and essential stage.

Investors could reap huge benefits as Iraq's oil industry takes off.

Abu Dhabi has the ability to provide essential on-site local management of Western investments in Iraq. The risks are there, but the involvement of a company from Abu Dhabi certainly mitigates those risks.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Travel Warning in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

This morning the US State Department issued a travel warning for Americans travelling in Europe.

The warning is based on an increased threat of al Qaeda or al Qaeda-like groups targeting Americans in Europe. This threat was made public a week ago and now the State Department sees fit to warn Americans about it.

"Terrorists may elect to use a variety of means and weapons and target both official and private interests. U.S. citizens are reminded of the potential for terrorists to attack public transportation systems and other tourist infrastructure. Terrorists have targeted and attacked subway and rail systems, as well as aviation and maritime services. U.S. citizens should take every precaution to be aware of their surroundings and to adopt appropriate safety measures to protect themselves when traveling."

The intel is not clear enough to have a timetable. But it is threatening enough to warn travelers.

Those involved in the gathering of the information have said that the terrorists are planning a Mumbai-like attack in a major city in Germany or France or other major European cosmopolitan center.

The reality is that this threat has been building for some time - now it appears that all the pieces of their terrorist puzzle are coming together.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



China & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

China is always looking to expand their business deals - especially with Iran.

Despite all the condemnation and all the sanctions, China wants to expand its business trade with Iran. It seems counter intuitive. But it is easily explained.

China has very good trade relations with Iran.
The People's Daily quoted Li Changchun, the Communist Party's chief propaganda official as saying:. "China is willing to continue maintaining high-level contacts and exchanges at all levels with Iran and deepen mutual political trust."

There is little that the West can do about the relationship between Iran and China. Iran exports most of its oil to China. And China will take all the oil it can get from Iran.

Iran sees China as the only truly independent power not in the pocket of the United States. That is why the Iranians go to great lengths to appease the Chinese.

In the future we will read many more statements and see many more deals between these two countries cum allies.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Senators Tell Obama about PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

87 US Senators have signed and sent a letter to President Barak Obama.

The text of the letter is a subtle yet unmistakable attack on the Palestinians and on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The text expresses astonishment that a party would walk away from negotiations at the very beginning of serious talks, astonishment that the parties have barely started stalking and yet the Palestinians are threatening to stop talking.

The letter notes that on the first day of the negotiations a terror attack murdered four innocent Israelis and, despite the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Abbas is his peace partner. Netanyahu could have easily walked away from the talks - but he did not.

The real purpose of the letter is to tell the president that the Senate wants pressure brought on the Palestinians. That they do not want pressure brought on the Israelis. That in their eyes it seems that the Israelis have already compromised enough.

In other words, get something - even a gesture from the Palestinians. Coming to the table while there is settlement activity on the West Bank would be just such a gesture.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



PA Plan on Settlements
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are continuing to shout about Israeli settlements. They have threatened to walk out on the talks and have no interest in pursuing an agreement if there is continued Israeli settlement activity.

The Palestinians have begun to harness international leaders and world opinion to exert pressure on Israel to stop building.

One senior PLO official, Hanna Amireh, articulated the Palestinian plan very clearly. He said: "The consensus is that since the entire world is in favor of a Palestinian state and against settlements, then let us throw this problem in the face of the world and see what they can do about it."

The idea of unleashing the world's anti settlement/ anti Israel venom could be very nasty. But one thing is certain: world opinion will not force Israel to bend on this question.

The only hope for success with the anti-Israel campaign is if the United States joins forces against Israel. The simple reality is that the only power capable of exerting serious influence on Israel is the United States.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Muslim Leaders Travel Plans
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

I have mentioned before that I watch the travel schedules of Middle East leaders.
Who meets with whom is a very useful instrument in understanding what is happening in the region.

For instance: Ahmadinejad stopped in Damascus, Syria on his way to New York last week. He had an important sit down with Syrian President Assad. And now President Assad is scheduled to visit Iran in October. The press announcement from the Iranian embassy in Syria said that the leaders will be "discussing how bi-lateral relations can be strengthened."

There's more: Ahmadinejad is scheduled to visit Lebanon on October 13. The trip is supposed to last for 2 or 3 days. The leader of Iran will spend significant time in Southern Lebanon with the Shiite populations there. According to reports there are three Iranian advance security teams in Lebanon already. They are there coordinating with Hezbollah security. Exact details of the trip are not clear, but symbolically, Ahmadinejad will be throwing a stone at Israel while in Southern Lebanon.

Interestingly: Syrian Foreign Minister Moualem met with US Secretary of State Clinton in NY during the GA. That was the highest level US/Syrian dialogue in a very long time.

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US Wants Compromise
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has expressed disappointment over Israel's decision to restart building in the West Bank. It looks like the Israeli/Palestinian talks are on the ropes. So US Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell will return to Israel on Tuesday with the express purpose of getting the talks back on track.

The United States wants Israel to stop building in exchange for several "guarantees." The "guarantees" include promises about Palestinian refugees, about security, about Israel's right to exist as a Jewish State.

The Israeli prime minister isn't interested. But Mitchell and Clinton have their own agenda. They want to convince Israel to accept the guarantees and move ahead. The problem with the guarantees is that they are coming from the US - not from the Palestinians.

The United States thinks that certain items are a given and easily and mutually acceptable. Nothing is further from the truth. There is not one single issue that the United States can raise that will be easily accepted by both parties. Only when the United States realizes this truth will they have reached a serious level of sophistication in their understanding of the region.

Only then will the United States have a chance at bringing peace to the region. But that time is still far, far away.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



West Bank Deadline Ended Today
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The deadline ended today.

Israel had set a 10 month moratorium for building in the West Bank and now it is over. The Israeli government said that, for now, it will only build essential buildings .

Indeed, this morning, in a West Bank settlement a foundation was poured for a new kindergarten. In response, PA leader Abbas called for a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers.

Abbas cannot act on his own. He must have the support and backing of the Arab League. It was the Arab League that gave Abbas cover and insisted on his participation in direct talks with Israel. Having the Arab League make decisions provides Abbas with the security and power he lacks on his own.

Now the Arab League will decide on whether to continue talking under Israel's post-moratorium policy of limited West Bank building or to call the whole thing off.

The debate will focus on principle versus practical issues.

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Defections from Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's diplomatic service has been stricken with a series of defections. For the first time the Iranian foreign ministry has commented on this situation.

The three most recent defections include the # 2 man in the diplomatic service named Helzinki Hossein Alizadah, the press attache in Brussels named Farzad Farhangin and a consular official in Oslo. A member of Iran's diplomatic team in LA has also asked the United States for asylum because he is gay.

The Iranians do not call these men defectors or asylum seekers, instead, they refer to each one as a person "refusing to return."
The official stance is that these diplomats reuse to return for personal reasons not political reasons. Iranian diplomats are sent abroad for three years and sometimes it is extended.

In total, twenty Iranians from the diplomatic corps have recently sought asylum. Let's put it in perspective: since 2008 three hundred Iranians have been granted political asylum in the West.

This new wave is interesting to note, but it is not all that unusual.

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Protests in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The other day there was a protest in Egypt. Protests in Egypt make news because no protest is held in Egypt without permission from the government.

This protest had several hundred people in attendance. It was a protest against Mubarak. No, not a protest against President Hosni Mubarak, it was a protest against Gamal, his son and would be successor.

The protesters gathered to raise the question of lineage versus democratic elections. Egyptian elections are slated for next year and as of now, Mubarak's successor will be whomever the President taps.

Egypt permitted the protest as a gesture toward democracy. It is not often that Egypt either gives voice to activists or redress of grievance.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Libya to Join Flotilla
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Libya has announced that they will send a vessel to join a flotilla embarking on a mission to break the Gaza blockade.

The Freedom Flotilla as it is called, scheduled to set sail on October 1st, will depart from London heading for al Arish, Egypt. According to their website, the British ship will carry 300 passengers ages 30-85.

According to the Libyan announcement aboard their vessel will be humanitarian aid as well as members of parliament. The Libyan ship is called the al Quds which translates to mean Jerusalem in Arabic.

At the same time the Israeli Chief of Staff Gabi Aschkenazi is saying that there may be future casualties resulting from future flotillas. During a briefing he made it clear that he expects more flotillas and more violence.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Two State Solution?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There was a major snag at the United Nations yesterday, a snag in the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

PA Prime Minister Salam Fayed and Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon were in a meeting with US special envoy George Mitchell and Quartet special envoy Tony Blair. Ayalon asked that the minutes of meeting include the idea of "two states for two peoples." The Palestinian prime minister walked out in a rage.

All Ayalon said was that he wanted to make certain that there would be two states - one Palestinians and one Israeli. Shocking? Blair was taken by surprise by the Palestinian reaction.

It seems obvious. Two states for two peoples should be the goal of these direct talks, not a deal breaker. Unless you're Palestinian. The PA wants one Palestinian state and one bi-national state. The bi-national state would eventually become a state with a majority of Palestinians .

And that would mean the end of Israel.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran is Oil Indepenent
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran made an outstanding pronouncement yesterday. Iran issued a public claim that last month they did not import any gasoline.

Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir Kazemi announced that Iran is now refining 17.5 million gallons per day. That's right, per day.

If this is true then the Iranians have outsmarted everyone.

If this is true it means that all international sanctions are irrelevant.

If this is true it means the Iranians have insulated themselves and are now totally import independent.

Iran has accomplished exactly what I have been warning of for months, exactly what world leaders said was impossible. Of course, it is possible that Iran is exaggerating, but even if it is an exaggeration, there is no doubt that becoming totally oil independent is the Iranian objective.

When Iran does achieve oil independence there will no longer be any real vehicle with which to influence this extremist country. That time might be now, it might be in a few months from now. It will happen.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Olmert Spills The Beans
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

At a conference in Geneva former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert revealed several remarkable confessions. The confessions will appear in his upcoming autobiography.

He said that Israel and the Palestinian Authority were nearly at the point of signing an agreement but the Palestinians could not bring themselves to sign.

He said that under the agreement the United States, under George Bush, would receive 100,000 Palestinian refugees and Israel would receive no more than 20,000.

He said that the Palestinians could not sign off on that plan and neither could they acknowledgment that the conflict is over.

He said "The numbers discussed were below 20,000, but this would require an end to the conflict and a Palestinian announcement that they would not make any more demands..."
"If we had reached an agreement, it would have changed the map of the world and the entire Middle East. We are not to blame. If there is no agreement, it's because the Palestinian side was not prepared to take the extra step that we made..."

Olmert's autobiography will certainly be an interesting read.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russia Sells Missiles To Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A very disturbing meeting took place in the Pentagon yesterday involving Russian Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov.

Pentagon officials raised serious questions about a 2007 deal that Russia had signed with Syria. Included in the agreement is the delivery of P-800 missiles to Syria. In Russia the P-800 is called the Yakhont which means ruby. Actually, that is the slang or street name for the missile, officially, it is called the Onyx OHNKC.

P-800 missiles are extremely useful and efficient and are a staple of the Russian weapons trade arsenal. Selling them to Syria is a serious issue because this missile will significantly improve the Syrian defense system.

P-800 missiles can also be used offensively which means it can easily attack US and Israeli targets from land, air, sea and sub. The missile is 30 feet long, has a war head of 660 pounds and a 22 miles range. It can fly as low as18 ft above the ground and has a radar seeking war head.

Serdyukov was quoted in ITAR-TASS news agency Friday saying:
"We will supply Yakhont to Syria, we will fulfill the contract."

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Turkey is in with Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey has expanded its trade with Iran. The hope is that within 5, years their trade will triple.

This year Turkish/Iranian trade hit a whopping 10 billion dollars. That's up 86% from last year in only the first seven months for the year.

Iranian Vice President Reza Rahimi was quoted as saying: "We have been laying the foundations of a very strong building with Turkey." And "today, we have no better friend than Turkey in today's world." And "For Iran, for political security and economy, Turkey is a very important country."

Turkey is playing with fire - and they know it. Turkey is deliberately snubbing their nose at the West and the especially at the United States.

We will know just how sweet the Iranian pot really is over time. Iran will exploit this connection to the max. Iran will do its best to entice others to follow Turkey's lead.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Rockets Launched Again from Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It seems like deja vous.

Yesterday, nine rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel. All nine rockets landed in an open field in Ashkelon. There were no injuries and there was very little damage to property.

The IDF has confirmed that two of the nine rockets were phosphorus. Irony of ironies is that the Palestinians condemned Israel for firing phosphorus rockets during Operation Cast Lead in December 2008.

Israel responded to yesterday's attack by bombing a section of Gaza. One tunnel worker was killed and two were injured.

This is a real rerun - Gaza launches rockets and Israel bombs back. The problem is that this is a very dangerous cycle. Analysts claim that this cycle of violence is due to the direct peace talks.

My thinking is that this could be the beginning of a new status quo, a status quo where Gaza indiscriminately drops bombs on Israel.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Israel is Already Building for A Reason
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli moratorium on building in Jerusalem and the West Bank ends on September 26th.

Netanyahu has said that he will not extend the moratorium. Neither will he begin unbridled building. The Israeli prime minister said that Israel will build - but in measured and very specific ways.

Contractors have already begun building. Neot Hapisga real estate developers announced that they have already resumed their building in the city of Modiin-Illit.
They have been building for some time. Building is not the problem.

The problem is that the Palestinians will walk away from the table if there is building. Or will they?

Building has been a test run to make certain that Palestinians threats were bluster, not true actions. If Israel continues to build and the talks continue, it is a great success. If the Palestinians walk away, they look petty.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Has Another Secret Nuke Site
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Most of the best intel out of Iran comes from anti-government sources.

Anti-government sources have contacts everywhere. They are the best connected people in Iran. The only problem we have with these well informed sources is whether or not the information they deliver is reliable.

Recently, two Iranian groups, the National Council for Resistance for Iran (NCRI) and the People's Mujahadeen Organization of Iran, (PMOI), have informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - the world's nuclear watchdog, that there is another secret nuclear facility in Iran. Two different groups delivering the same message.

The IAEA has not yet determined that the information is real. But most analysts believe that the intel can be backed up with previous experience with Iran. Most analysts believe that Iran has more than just one secret and undeclared site.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Oil Spill in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The other day an oil barge filled with diesel tilted and dumped 110 tons of oil into the Nile River near Aswan.

The oil slick is about 60 yards wide and 1.2 miles long.

Most of Egypt's fresh water and drinking water come out of the Nile. The Egyptians are convinced that they have protected their water sources. Better yet, the Egyptian government is proclaiming that they have secured their fresh water.

The Egyptian claim is not obvious to most analysts. We won't know what is really happening, we won't know whether the slick will endanger most of Egypt, for a few days.

It is in Egypt's best interests to lower the intensity level and minimize the potential danger.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Rockets Again Land in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In Israel the Jewish New Year was ushered in with an unfortunate "bang" in areas that border the Palestinian Hamas controlled Gaza Strip.

Since Wednesday, the eve of Rosh Hashanah, four rockets have landed inside Jewish communities. One landed in a kindergarten - no one was hurt because of the Holiday. People who live in the agricultural communities called kibbutzim had their Holiday destroyed by rocket fire.

The residents of these communities had their silence shattered just as direct talks between Palestinians and Israelis, under United States sponsorship, are to commence. On Tuesday Israelis and Palestinians are scheduled to meet in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik.

The Jewish High Holidays are a time for contemplation and family. The High Holidays are a period of valuable introspection and evaluation.

Even the most optimistic family that had hopes for a sustained peace now has serious reservations. Rocket attacks do not bode well for peace.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Castro Condemns Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The other day Fidel Castro gave an interview to an American journalist.

This is not an everyday occurrence, when it does happen, we need to pay careful attention.

What interested me more than anything else in this interview was that Fidel Castor took on Ahmadinejad. Castro made it very clear that Ahmadinejad was way out of line. Castro called Ahmadinejad an anti-Semite.

Castro knows full well that Ahmadinejad is playing the anti-Semitism card in order to garner support in the Muslim world. And in the eyes of the Cuban dictator, that behavior is unconscionable.

Castro is not a lovey dovey kinda guy and he does not mind peddling propaganda. But Castro will not countenance or sponsor racism or anti Semitism. Even thugs have a line in the sand.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Kenya Convicts Pirates
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A court in Kenya convicted seven Somalians for piracy.

They were sentenced to 5 months in prison.

The pirates were convicted of attacking a German Naval supply ship last March. Lawyers for the pirates will appeal the conviction.

This is the first attempt by an individual country to clamp down on the pirates who are wreaking havoc all over the waters of the Middle East.

Five months is not a significant amount of time. But it is a beginning. At least the court in Kenya heard the case, at least they handed down a sentence. I hope they have set a precedent that will be followed by other countries.

Piracy must be stopped - or at least, pirates must be deterred from pursuing what has until now, been a very lucrative operation.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Terrorist Arrested in South FL
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the police in South Florida arrested a Palestinian named Abdel Aziz Hamayel. He was buying and stocking weapons that authorities believe were destined to outfit Palestinian terrorists

The report, which was first made public on WSVN, said that 300 weapons were confiscated. The weapons included M-16s, ammo, and grenades.

This is the first time that a significant arms cache destined for Palestinian terrorist cells has been discovered in the United States.

The capture of Hamayel is just the tip of the iceberg. The weapons were almost all stolen. Investigators need to follow their leads. Investigators need to put all the pieces together.

Tracking down, shutting down and arresting Middle East terrorists on US soil needs to be a law enforcement priority.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



China Clamps Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday China asked or, more correctly, pleaded with Iran to conform to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requests. China asked Iran to please cooperate.

If Iran were to cooperate, China reasons, the enormous tensions that emerge and grow day by day would be dramatically reduced.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry posted a very clear message to Iran on their Foreign Ministry website. They even went public in an interview by saying, "We hope that Iran and the Agency can fully cooperate and establish the trust of the international community in the peaceful nature of their nuclear plants."

China is the only country in the world that Iran actually trusts. The feeling is mutual. In Iran's eyes, China cannot be bought or corrupted by the United States. When China makes a request it will be considered very seriously by Iran - especially because China is Iran's biggest buyer. China is the largest consumer of oil in the world.

China wants Iran to back down. Will it happen? We’ll watch and see how Iran responds to China.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran & Bahrain Gas Deal
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Bahrain are about to sign a deal to create an underwater, natural gas, pipeline linking their countries and allowing for the safe exchange of gas.

It is a two-stage deal. Stage # 1 will have Iran sending 500 cubic feet of gas per day to Bahrain. Stage # 2 will be the transfer of nearly a billion cubic feet of gas.

According to the Mehr news agency, on Saturday Iran's Deputy Oil Minister, Javad Oji, said that Iranian and Bahraini officials met in Tehran to discuss measures for the establishment of a joint commission to increase cooperation in the natural gas sector.

He said: "If [a deal is] finalized, a new natural gas pipeline will be built under the Persian Gulf waters; the pipeline is expected to transfer one billion cubic feet of Iran's gas to Bahrain."

Iran holds the second largest reserve of natural gas in the world after Russia

The purpose of the agreement is simple: it is an end around world sanctions.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



PA Shoots Back at Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority shot back at the Iranians.

On Friday the Iranians called Abbas a traitor. On Saturday the PA told the Iranians to butt out. Who, the Palestinians asked, is Iran to declare what Abbas can or cannot do.

The Iranians are way out of their element. They are playing to a wide audience trying to say to Muslims around the world that Abbas has abandoned the Muslim world. To that end Iran portrays Abbas as an irresponsible leader.

Over the next few days the Palestinian Authority will go head to head with Iran. The PA must prove to the Muslim world that they are working not only for the best interests of Palestinians but for the best interests of the entire Muslim world.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



The Arab Press Response
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In a scan of Arabic and Parsi (Iranian) press I deciphered an overwhelming tone of frustration with Abbas regarding the direct peace talks with Israel.

The Iranians have said, in short, "who are you Abbas to negotiate?" And they described those Arab leaders who were present at the event as outright traitors.

The overall tone of the Arabic press suggests that Abbas is too weak at this time to negotiate and he will only capitulate to the US and the Israelis.

The noted and very public exception was the Egyptian press. They took offense. They have cancelled the diplomatic visit of the Iranian foreign minister who was to travel this week to Egypt. That is serious fallout.

Egypt and Iran are at one another's throats. The Arab League has given their blessing, saying give peace a chance.
There will be flack. There will be much more to come.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



The Meeting Ends
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The session is over. Netanyahu and Abbas are home already.

Many pundits are proclaiming the success of the meeting. Politicians are elated by the "frankness of the discussion."

All the hoopla is generated by an agreement to meet, again, in two weeks time at Sharm el Sheik. Hillary Clinton and George Mitchell will be there. Abbas and Netanyahu will lead their teams.

And then they will continue to meet every other week.

These next two weeks are essential to the success of this venture. The leaders must convince their masses as well as their political enemies that this is the correct route and this is the right time.

We will watch and evaluate. We will see how Netanyahu and Abbas respond to the challenges placed before them, to the stumbling blocks placed in their paths. We are not looking for a quick conclusion, we are merely hoping to be able to predict whether or not there will be further talks, whether any progress is being made.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



It is All About TIming
By Micah Halpern

September 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

"Seize the moment." "Don't let this opportunity slip through our fingers."

President Obama has used these metaphors repeatedly in describing the talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

"This moment of opportunity may not soon come again." "They cannot afford to let it slip away."

The reality, however, is that this moment, the one taking place in Washington, DC. is totally artificial and purely man- made. The meeting was forced on both parties. It has nothing to do with timing. Actually - the timing is terrible.

The big event happens the day before the Labor Day weekend. Then comes Rosh Hashanah. After that, from September 10-13, is the three-day Muslim holiday called Id al Fitr. followed by Yom Kippur and Sukkot.

The reality is that until October, there is no actual time to sit down. Clearly, there is no burning need to sit down and talk. But the US administration wants this to happen now.

So now is when it is happening.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Palestinian Israeli Talks in DC
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Tonight the ceremony begins.
Tonight the White House hosts Netanyahu, Abbas, Abdullah and Mubarak.

Tonight all sit together for a state dinner. Tonight the leaders of the United States, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority will break bread. Conspicuously absent from this event is Hamas - but their presence has already, sadly, tragically, been felt. The pomp and circumstance of the event will be more fitting for the end of the process than for the beginning.

The irony is that, while very few people appreciate this fact, this entire event could easily have taken place 20 months ago when Obama first took office. It was President Obama's insistence that forced the hand of the Palestinians and brought about the response of the Israelis.

In January 2009 talks between the Israelis and Palestinians were ongoing. What a waste of time, energy, productivity and momentum.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Egypt: Who is Next in Line
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been in a tumult these last few days.

Posters appeared throughout the country abdicating for Gamal Mubarak, son of Hosni Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt.

Why is this at all interesting? Primarily because there has been no discussion, either public or private, about succession. And those who have rejected the ideas of political succession have been arrested or silenced.

Now a serious dissident, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, has signed a petition for Mubarak. Ibrahim claims that he signed in order to support a real election not to endorse the candidate/son.

Do not expect a real debate - but the young Mubarak does have many things going for him as the successor. Then again, he also has many negative traits.

If Mubarak junior is to become the next president of Egypt it will happen because he has been firmly placed in position by his father, so firmly placed that there can be no doubts about his credentials.

This will not be an easy political task. Then again, Mubarak the father has never shied away from difficult tasks.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iraq's Oil Output
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Seldom do we get a really good first hand indicator of a developing country's potential.

Economists crunch numbers and insert variables. Analysts read the prevailing winds. Investors translate tones and offer a prognosis. But it is all one step removed.

So I was relieved to actually hear Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani explain his goals and give a timetable.

Iraq is producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
They are permitted 4 million per day by agreement with OPEC.
Shahristani said that he expects Iraq to meet OPEC totals within 2 years.

Iraqis are taking their production seriously. They are developing and expanding their capabilities. And now we have a serious timeline to attach to their objectives.

It seems doable.
Given the expansion, it seems sustainable.
Given Iraq's current orientations and direction we should take Shahristani at his word.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ghadaffi In Rome Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi is now in Rome, his fourth visit to Italy in a year.

Ostensibly, the purpose of this visit is the first anniversary of the reparations agreement between the two countries. The Italian government has agreed to pay Libya $9 billion because of the Italian occupation of Libya from 1911-1943.

But nothing Ghadaffi does is without serious symbolic value.

The Libyan leader has pitched his famous Bedouin tent. He has brought along 30 thoroughbred Berber horses and 40 body guards.

During a previous trip to Italy, in November of 2009, Ghadaffi hosted a lavish party for between 200 to 500 beautiful Italian women - all of whom were paid to attend. They were models and hostess and were told wear dresses that came to the knee. At the party Ghadaffi delivered a long lecture on the attributes of Islam and asked his guests to convert.

I can't wait to see what Ghadaffi has planned this time around.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Wants to Save Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is in a bind.
# 1: Iran has offered to arm Lebanon.
# 2: The United States is calling into question the $100 million a year they give to Lebanon.
# 3: Iran stepped right up and said they will fill the gap.

This is very important.

Iran is already the supporter and arms provider for Hezbollah. If the Iranians now become the patron of the Lebanese army that means that they will, literally, be arming both sides of an internal struggle.

Lebanon does not want to join with Iran but there may be no other choice. The Lebanese know that all Iranian aid comes with multiple strings attached.

One of those strings may be that the Lebanese become proxy warriors against Israel on Iran's behalf. And that could mean the end of Lebanon.

Lebanon really needs the aid and Lebanon really needs the weapons to hold their own against Hezbollah.
Lebanon is faced with a serious dilemma.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Abbas Arrests Hamas & Jihad Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian leadership is preparing for direct talks with Israel. The United States has made it very clear that these talks must adhere to serious conformity with existing agreements.

So over the past few days the PA has been arresting Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the West Bank. This might appear to be a win win situation, but the arrests can have serious backlash.

It is win win because to the outside world it now looks like the PA is taking security seriously and is designating Hamas and Islamic Jihad as terror groups working to undermine them. But it might be a lose lose because these arrests can easily come back to haunt Abbas.

Abbas is already in a very precarious political situation. The public believes that Abbas is too compliant, that he too often does what he is told, that the US and Israel pull his strings.

Abbas is a survivor.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Shootout in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since it became a modern state, Lebanon has been like a powder keg ready to explode.

Divisions in Lebanon run deep. Civil wars are commonplace. Capital city Beirut is extremely volatile - Shiites and Sunnis kill one another with abandon.

When Lebanon is quiet it is an eerie quiet. It means that tensions are there, covered over, hiding beneath the surface.

Yesterday there was a clash between Shiites and Sunnis in a mixed neighborhood in Beirut. This was no small shoot. At least three people were killed and many more were wounded. Machine guns and RPGs were the weapons used.

RPG stands for rocket propelled grenade. RPGs are the weapons Hezbollah uses to shoot tanks. This is serious destructive fire power.

This is a serious situation.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Syria Boasts Huge Rise in Tourism
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Tourism is up in Syria this year. The increase is 55% over last year at this time. That means 5.1 million tourists have visited Syria so far in 2010. Truly, an unbelievable number.

About 1 million of the tourists are themselves Syrians living abroad. About 3 million are Arabs from other countries. The rest are true foreigners, people from other countries.

An increase of such huge dimensions has to be attributed to something. The best I can guess is-the new attitude of the world-at-large towards Syria resulting from Syria's new openness to the West.

Syria's decision to entertain overtures from the West has resulted in tourism that has surged into the millions. More than people, the Syrians say that $5 billion US dollars in revenue has been raised.

Now for the billion dollar question: Will this improved economic tool further influence Syria's foreign policy?

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Says Israel is Too Weak
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is in victory mode.
The Iranians continue to gloat, proclaiming that they have trounced the United States and the West.

Yesterday, in response to Israel's frustration over the opening of the new Iranian nuclear reactor in Busher, Ahmadinejad declared that Israel is too weak to attack Iran.

He continued his rhetoric by declaring that the Iranians do not fear a US attack, either. He said that the US could not even defeat the tiny Iraqi army or put down the present insurgency in Iraq. If they can't even handle Iraq, how could they defeat the mighty Iranian military, he rhetorically asked.

This is a new stage in Ahmadinejad's bluster. He is milking the opening of the nuclear plant at Busher for all he can. He is trying to mesmerize the Muslim world by illustrating for them how both Israel and the United States are not to be feared.

Ultimately Iran's political leader is saying: Do not be intimidated by these heathens. They are weak, we are strong. Iran will lead and defend all the Muslim world.

He's not just mouthing the words. Ahmadinejad means what he says.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Goes Nuke & Defeats the US Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran opened the Busher nuclear power plant yesterday. Nuclear reactors are being filled as you read this.

The opening of this nuclear power plant was happen simply and easily on the part of Iran because the US proclaimed to the world - and particularly to Israel, that the Busher plant was a nuclear power plant. Russia confirmed this story because they constructed the plant.

Israel is shocked and stunned by naivete of the United States and Russia.

Iran is jubilant. The news was celebrated on TV and radio broadcasts. The Iranians are calling it a monstrous victory over the West. Despite Western pressure they were able to fulfill their objectives and open a nuclear power facility.

How could the US and Russia be so easily played?

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Lebanon Preps Boat for Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday a ship is set to depart from Lebanon stockpiled with aid for Gaza. The ship is called the Mariam, the Arabic name for Mary mother of Jesus.

The Mariam is supposed to have only Christian women aboard. The intention of this voyage is to break the Israeli blockade. Really, it is a serious propaganda and public relations ploy. The hope is that the Christian angle will call a lot of attention to this mission.
Cyprus has already declared that the ship is not welcome. They Cypriots said that if the ship does set sail they will arrest the passengers and send them back to Lebanon. Cyprus understands exactly what is happening.

The government of Lebanon was asked to stop this ship but as of now, has remained silent. Unlike the Turks, the Lebanese government has not supported, condemned or prevented the ship from departing. This is like walking a thin tightrope.

Israel sees this voyage by the Mariam as a provocation and has warned that it will respond in kind. Tensions are rising.
We must monitor this situation carefully - it clearly has the potential to explode.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



The Bald Ibis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

One of the byproducts of significantly better relations between Turkey and Syria is a joint effort to saving an endangered species - the Bald Ibis.

The Bald Ibis is one of rarest birds in the world. Large creatures of prey, Bald Ibis are found in Turkey, in Morocco, and a handful are to be found in Syria.

There are about 500 Bald Ibis alive in the wild today and 1,000 in captivity. That's a lot considering that they were considered to be extinct 300 years ago.

The bird's wingspan is 5 feet long, the body is nearly 3 feet long. Well named, the Bald Ibis has a seriously bald head and a 5 inch beak.

The new friendship sprouting between Turkey and Syrian is bad news for the West. But bad news for the West is good news for the Bald Ibis.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Religious Conflict Between Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A serious religious conflict is taking between Palestinian political groups. The conflict is taking place now, right this very minute.

The Palestinian Authority has made it illegal for anyone not authorized by the Authority to preach or instruct in mosques in the West Bank. Why this? Why now? It is the PA's aka Fatah's response to Hamas.

Hamas has been recruiting in the West Bank. Hamas has forbidden the reading of the Quran (Koran) from the minaret before the call to prayer. The PA says this diminishes the teachings of the Quran.

What the PA is really saying is: this is a check against Hamas. Even though the PA and the residents of the West Bank are overwhelmingly Muslim, the PA is fearful of a religious government, like Hamas, taking over.

Hamas says that turning non-PA authorized clergy into criminals is an act of outright war on Islam. Hamas is correct, but they are like the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. Hamas does the same thing. Only authorized Hamas preachers may preach in Gaza - and no political or religious alternative views are ever, at all, permitted.

This is all taking place during Ramadan, the holy month during which peaceful coexistence between fellow Muslims is, or is supposed to be, a prime theme.

Unlike Ramadan, this tension will not be resolved at month's end.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Palestinian Pre-Conditions
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet is pressuring Israel to agree to conditions before commencing direct meetings with the Palestinians.

The Quartet, composed of the UN, the EU, Russia and the US, is charged with trying to move the Palestinians and the Israelis toward a peace deal.

Israel had thought that they successfully cornered the Palestinians by pushing for a resumption of face to face, direct talks. The Palestinians had set up a series of pre-conditions before they would come back to the table with the Israelis. The Israelis said pre conditions are unreasonable. The US and most of the world agreed. Until now.

Now the Palestinians have the Quartet as their most welcome mouthpiece, pushing Palestinian preconditions and trying to force Israel into talks.

Israel is saying no and trying to convince the US to back them once again.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Al Qaeda Praises and Curses Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A new audio message was posted on an al Qaeda web site today. It was a message from Ayman Zawahiri, the second most important leader of Al Qaeda. The message, in Arabic, was 20 minutes long.

Most significantly, Zawahiri calls Muslim leaders to task for abandoning the cause of their people.

He also discusses Turkey, delivering a complex and serious message. Al Qaeda's # 2 both calls for ousting Turkey's leadership and compliments the Muslim leadership for supporting the Palestinians and for sending the flotilla to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

He delivers a biting critique of Turkish military cooperation with Israel. On the one hand Zawahiri says Turkey is doing the right thing and on the other he says Turkey is just like all the evil leaders in the Muslim world who co-operate with the enemy.

Zawahiri is not speaking in circles. This critique shows a multi-leveled understanding that until now has been missing in al Qaeda's public messages. Until now, al Qaeda messages have always been mono-dimensional.

This could signal a significant change in al Qaeda's approach to their disciples. Or it could just be a reflection of an obvious reality that needed to be articulated.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Obama & Ramadan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Last night President Barack Obama spoke at a break fast dinner. The dinner marked the end of a day of the month long fast of Ramadan. During Ramadan, Muslims fast by day and eat at night.

Obama spoke about religious freedom and tolerance. I saw a synopsis of the president's remarks and, mark my words, what was said will be heard and interpreted very differently from the intent with which the president chose and spoke his words.

The Muslim community will not be offended by the president. They will draw their own conclusions from the double message that the president, I assume inadvertently, delivered to the break fast guests.

The Muslim community will hear that religious intolerance is unacceptable. That religious intolerance is at the heart of the debate shrouding the World Trade Center mosque. They will understand that the President of the United States is in favor of the mosque.

Other audiences will hear the president deliver a subtle moral lesson, advising the Muslim community that they, too, must practice tolerance.

Bottom line: The president’s message will be totally lost. His attempt at subtle persuasion will be lost on the Muslim community. And those who do not want the Mosque to be built will not be moved by the call for tolerance.

What a wasted opportunity.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Stops $s to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Howard L. Berman (D-CA) is the Chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. On August 2, Berman put a hold on $100 million of US aid to Lebanon for 2010, another $100 million was held for 2011.

August 2 was the day before the cross border sniper killing of an Israeli officer.

In the official Committee statement released on August 9 Berman said:
"I have been concerned for sometime about reported Hezbollah influence on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and its implications for our military assistance program for Lebanon. For that reason, on August 2, I placed a hold on a $100 million dollar security assistance package to the LAF. The incident on the Israel-Lebanon border only one day after my hold was placed simply reinforces the critical need for the United States to conduct an in-depth policy review of its relationship with the Lebanese military. I strongly condemn the unprovoked attacked by the Lebanese Army that resulted in the death of an Israeli officer. Until we know more about this incident and the nature of Hezbollah influence on the LAF -- and can assure that the LAF is a responsible actor -- I cannot in good conscience allow the United States to continue sending weapons to Lebanon."

The Congressman is 100% correct.

It was not luck or karma that influenced Berman to shut the money down on that day. It was scrutiny. The Chairman and the Committee are correct to have suspicions because Hezbollah is so fully integrated into the Lebanese Army.

Within hours of the announcement the Iranian Ambassador met with the Lebanese Minister of Defense and promised Lebanon whatever they need. That's right, all of Lebanon's needs will be catered to on a silver platter by Iran.

The United States disciplines Lebanon and the Iranians reward them for the very same act. The Middle East is a very complicated region.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ramadan is Here
By Micah Halpern

August 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the first day of Ramadan.

Ramadan is the name of the ninth month of the Muslim calendar. It is also a month long fast. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night. When they fast it is a total fast, that means no food and no drink.

Ramadan, the Islamic fast, mimics the biblical holy day of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. The biblical holiday, the fast of Yom Kippur, is but one day long. The fast of Ramadan is designed as a month of introspection and repentance. Evening break fasts are a celebration of life and family.

During Ramadan the mosques are packed and the Imams are preaching. The people are hungry and introspective. Ramadan is the perfect breeding ground for extremist ideas and actions.

For the West, Ramadan is a time of high alert.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran's New Submarine
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iran announced that they were launching four new Ghadir series submarines. The Ghadir are a midget series submarine and Iran has 11 of them.

At about only 30 yards long, the Ghadir may be small, but they are stealth equipped and very high tech. They will help Iran patrol their borders. They are capable of firing both torpedoes and missiles at the same time.

The Ghadir are very dangerous, difficult to monitor and a very effective attack weapon.

Iran continues to crank up their conventional weapons capabilities. That means we must keep a very, very close eye on what the Iranians do and don't do. We need to know exactly what the Iranians are capable of accomplishing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ahmadinejad Denies 9-11 for a Reason
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad came out with his own information about 9-11 on Saturday. His goal is to position himself as the only leader capable of successfully challenging the established West.

On Saturday Ahmadinejad announced that:
9-11 was a fiction
the numbers were invented
he never saw a list of names of victims.

Ahmadinejad said that the Zionists were told not to come to work that day. He added that the Holocaust was also a fiction, a fictional tool used by the Zionists to gain sympathy.

Why is he saying all of this and why is he saying it now?
Ahmadinejad is making a play to isolate the West and concentrate power and strength in a non-Western block.

The most dramatic conspiracies to circulate throughout the non-Western world center around 9-11 and about the Holocaust . If Ahmadinejad can add fuel to the proverbial fire on these issues, he becomes the most public personality and influential international leader able to support a bid against the West.

In general, political leaders shy away from publicly speaking out on theories fearing that the US will slap them down. Instead these writings and ideas find themselves in mosques and in non-establishment publications and on websites.

Ahmadinejad is making these ideas mainstream. He is giving voice to a gargantuan mass that believe this rhetoric.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Shooting Rockets from Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian police, secret service and army are conducting a massive man hunt in the Sinai desert. They are looking for terrorists and trucks used to launch a barrage of rockets that landed in Aqaba, Jordan and in Eilat, Israel.

The rockets were launched on Monday. One Jordanian was killed and three were wounded. The incoming explosives left no dead or injured in Israel. Now the United States has updates the State Department's travel warning recommendations and is advising Americans to stay away from Eilat.

Immediately after the rockets came flying Egypt declared that there was no possible way that they came from their territory. They claimed that US anti-terror and police teams swarm the area making it impossible for an attack to be launched. They were convinced only after Jordan delivered incontrovertible proof and evidence that the rockets were, indeed, launched from Egypt.

Now Egypt is in high gear and they have announced that the terrorists came from Gaza. Of course, these terrorists have not been sunbathing in Sinai for the past few days waiting to be caught.

This delay by Egypt was a classic element of Mid-East machismo. This time that machismo got in the way of apprehending terrorists and gathering intel on their operations.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Is Organizing To Oust the US
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not know this, but in Afghanistan and Tajikistan one of the languages that is spoken is Persian - just like in Iran.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad created a Persian Language Summit with three of his neighboring countries. Ahmadinejad is trying to counter the influence of the West. He wants to oust the West. He is trying to organize and leverage and force NATO out of Afghanistan by organizing the leaders. In the final analysis, Ahmadinejad wants to further isolate the United States.

Iran needs to prove to Afghanistan and Tajikistan and everyone else in the area that their own region does not want the West to be there. He wants to prove that there is nothing more upsetting to people in the region than the presence of outsider armies, especially Western armies amidst them.

This is Ahmadinejad at his best.
This is Ahmadinejad organizing the region against the West.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Why Lebanon Attacked Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Why did Lebanese soldiers open fire on Israeli forces? Why did the Lebanese snipers target Israeli officers 220 yards from the border operation that was trimming shrubs?

The evidence is clear. The truth is evident. Even UNIFIL and the US State Department say that the IDF was within Israel's border while trimming the shrubs with a cherry picker.

The UN has also confirmed that Israel informed them and they alerted the Lebanese Army that Israel would be trimming the shrubs. And Israel was trimming shrubs in order to prevent further cross border kidnappings.

One theory is that the Lebanese need to distract their citizens from the soon to be released UN report on the assassination of Lebanese President Rafik Hariri.

Another possibility is that Hezbollah infiltrated the Lebanese army and planned the assassination of the senior Israeli officers who would certainly be supervising the trimming operation. Hezbollah is thought to be heavily inside the Lebanese army - to the tune of 30%.

Whatever the reason, the only thing that surprises me is that UNIFIL actually told the truth and that UNIFIL finally backed up Israel and UNIFIL supported Israel's side of the story.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Court Says No to Muslim Scarf in Prison
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Can prison authorities prohibit the wearing of a Muslim head scarf? A United States court has just come out with a ruling.

The argument is pretty straightforward.

Under normal circumstances, this would b a freedom of religion issue and there should be no question but that this is an open and shut issue. But these are not normal circumstances, this is a question of security.

Prison needs to maintain safety. The head scarf is a perfect place to conceal weapons. The head scarf can be used as a weapon to strangle someone. So the court sided against freedom of religion and came out in favor of security and safety.

One of the most important lessons to be learned here is that even constitutional rights, assumed to be inalienable, have their limitations when it comes to safety.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Threatens to Burn Tel Aviv
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Ambassador to the United Nation's, Muhammed Khazaee, just went on home leave. In Teheran he received face-to-face updates from his superiors.

The UN Ambassador is a very important position in Iran. The Ambassador defends and presents Iran to the world. It is the UN Ambassador who officially attacks the US and Israel and who circles the wagons for whatever cause or issue is on the Iranian agenda at any given moment.

Khazaee is portrayed as a very important person by the Iranian media, he is a hero who defends the honor of Iran against oppressors.

While on home leave Khazaee did a round of local interviews. To the Iranian press he proclaimed: "Tehran would burn Tel Aviv down" if Iran was attacked.

Much of this is bluster - but there is a real threat hidden inside those words.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Threatens PA
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is pressuring Palestinian President Abbas to begin direct talk with Israel. The same pressure is coming from the Arab League. And from leaders around the world.

Now come some very interesting follow-up comments: Hannan Ashwari, while interviewed on Al Jazera, said that the US threatened to cut off relations if Abbas did not join direct talks. The US State Department responded that the United States does not threaten.

Actually, the US does threaten. In this case, the US will withdraw the support they have given the PA if they do not embark on direct talks.

Abbas knows that local Palestinian leadership will not be at all happy with direct talks. So he has set out a series of preconditions before he will return to direct talks. Abbas hopes to keep both sides happy.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Since the Arab League Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since Thursday's Arab League meeting, interesting messages and movements have begun to emerge.

Most significantly, the Arab League now agrees with the United States and Israel that the way forward with the Palestinians is through direct, face-to-face discussions. The League could not say that they agree with Western nations outright, so they phrased it such that they see great benefit to direct negotiations that are overseen by the United States - but that the decision rests with the Palestinian Authority.

Next, the King of Saudi Arabia and the President of Syria called for unity in the League to help resolve the Palestinian Israeli issues.

And the King of Saudi Arabia and the King of Jordan announced that the only possible way to stabilize the region is through a two-state solution. This is especially interesting because the Saudis do not officially recognize Israel.

From the meeting and the announcements afterwards it seems clear that Arab leadership is divided. The larger group, led by the Saudis, wants direct negotiations and a two-state solution.

The smaller group, led by the head of the Arab League, Amir Moussa, wants to say no, wants to push off direct negotiations and wants a Palestinian state but only on their terms - which is very old school.

What matters is that there is serious development of thought in the Arab world and among Arab leadership. It remains to be seen if talk turns into action.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran's Family Planning
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Since the fall of the Shah, Iran has had nothing but disdain for family planning.

The Shah encouraged a reduction of family size. Ads during the '70's proclaimed "2 is enough." Under the Shah, the optimum Iranian family size was 4.

For years now, even discussions of family planning is thought to be a sin of the West and considered anti-Muslim.

The reality is that today Iran is suffering from a huge people drain, the Iranian people are in a crisis environment. Iranians are leaving as quickly as they can find the opportunity. Very talented people are leaving Iran in droves. Estimates put unemployment at 15% to 20% (official figures say 10%). There are 73 million people in Iran. 10 million live in poverty.

So Iran has devised a plan. The government has said they will pay $950 per baby at birth and $95 per year until the child is 18 years old, the money will be used to send the child to school.

The Iranians hope that they have devised a way of increasing their population and filling a serious need for trained professionals.

Iran is planning for the future - and that includes more kids and more home trained professionals.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Mubarak Sends Letter to Rabbi Ovadia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hosni Mubarak just sent a personal letter to Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. Egypt's president was responding to Rabbi Yosef's questions about his failing health and inquiry about the reports of cancer that are being reported in the media.

Ovadia Yosef is the former Chief Rabbi of Israel and the former Chief Rabbi Egypt.

This letter is not simply a letter. It is a message to Israel. The message is that Mubarak is healthy and here for long haul.

By extension, Mubarak is sending another message. This message is being sent home. Mubarak is telling all of Egypt that the rumors are just rumors, that the media is out to weaken Egypt.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Invests $46 Billion in Refineries
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has finally begun to invest in Iranian refineries.
Because Iranian refinery capability is so dismal, the Iranians actually import more than 40% of their own gasoline.

Iran is now investing $46 billion in upgrades on nine refineries and building seven new ones. They have already invested $26 in the new refineries.

The Iranians are finally realizing that the only way to break away from the strangle hold that will continue to tighten around them is by becoming independent. They are the 2nd largest oil producer in the Middle East and the 5th largest in the world and yet they have to beg for refined gas after they export oil.

The plan is to solve this problem within the next year. Iran is racing against the clock, against the sanctions clock. If the Iran plan works, sanctions will have no impact at all.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Jethro Tull Will Not Cancel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

This has been a summer of cancellations.

Band after band has cancelled concert tours to Israel. Most of the cancellations came as a result of pressure brought by European, anti- Israel, organizations.

Leftfield, Elvis Costello, The Pixies, Jill Scott Heron, Santana, The Klaxons, Gorillaz Sound System, they've all cancelled their Israeli performances. The would - be line-up is impressive. More impressive is Jethro Tull.

Jethro Tull has not cancelled, at least not yet. The group is still scheduled to perform an open air concert in Caesaria on August 7. The proceeds from the Jethro Tull concert will go to programs that sponsor co-existence between Israelis and Palestinians and between Jews, Christians and Muslims.

The band's lead musician, Ian Anderson, made it very clear that they will not be pressured to cancel their Israel performance. Anderson insisted that Jethro Tull will not be intimidated.

I hope others learn from Jethro Tull's example.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Chavez Threatens to Shut Off US Oil
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Chavez of Venezuela just threatened to stop exporting oil to the United States if Columbia launches any attack on its territory.

The Columbians believes that rebels are crossing their 1300 mile mutual border and crossing back to the refuge of Venezuela. Chavez believes that the US is behind the arrogance of the Columbian government.

According to Hugo Chavez: "If there was any armed aggression against Venezuela from Colombian territory or from anywhere else, promoted by the Yankee empire, we would suspend oil shipments to the United States even if we have to eat stones here."
For further emphasis Chavez adds: "We would not send a drop more to U.S. refineries."

Chavez will not live up to his promise. Why? Because 90% of Venezuela's oil exports go to the US of A. The entire economy of Venezuela would collapse if Chavez actually pulled the plug on the United States.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Egypt's Future is in Question
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak appeared on TV in a taped presentation.

There have been rumors that Egypt's president is dying of cancer and one US paper even reported that he has less than a year to live. In March he had gallbladder surgery in Germany and was out of Egypt for three weeks, running affairs of state from his hospital room.

Mubarak looked thinner than usual, but he sounded fine and still looked good. The thinness does not bother me. It was always well camouflage under his exquisitely tailored suits, but Mubarak has been about sixty pounds overweight for a long while.

This TV appearance was a tool to support and bolster confidence in Mubarak's power and position. The message is I am alive and well. I am in charge and in control of Egypt. You are in good hands.

There is no doubt that one of the most important issues Mubarak is considering is succession. Mubarak's internal struggle right now is whether to open and liberalize Egypt permitting a more democratic election or to personally choose and place his successor in position. The next question then is who that person would be. Who is best suited to succeed him? If he does not hand pick a successor and chooses to liberalize, Mubarak has to figure out what to do with the Islamists.

If Egypt permits the Islamists to run, they may just win the Egyptian election just like Hamas won the Palestinian election. Mubarak does not want that to happen. Neither do we.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Upgraes PA Status
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has decided to upgrade the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA now falls under the category of "general delegation."

Until now Palestinian status was that of a "mission." This boost in status is an attempt by the US to convince Palestinian President Abbas to sign on to the US peace plan.

The move is viewed by the PA as important and by the Israelis as a necessity. The problem with the way this upgrade has been bestowed upon the Palestinians is that these kinds of diplomatic moves should be rewards for deeds done - not enticements to achieve a diplomatic goal. Once given, the United States will not and cannot rescind this status, even if Abbas and the PA do not toe the line.

This is a classic diplomatic blunder. Hoping to achieve a goal and giving the reward before the goal is achieved will, in the end, turn out to be a wasted prize. The United States will not get what they want because the Palestinians no longer have any incentive to do what they are asked.

This is why diplomacy is an art. It requires more than good goals. It requires the nerves of a gambler who holds on tough and never shows weakness even when bluffing with a weak hand. The irony of it all is that the United States' hand was not weak, it was the Palestinians who, until now, had the weaker hand. Until now.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Smuggling in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Houdini used to say there has never been a lock that cannot be picked.
The same can be said of fences and security system. The only question is how much time it will take.

That being said, I was not in the least surprised to see video footage of a Palestinian with a blowtorch cutting a whole in the famous underground iron wall that Egypt constructed in order to prevent smugglers from entering Gaza.

Where there is a will, there is always a way.

Smuggling dates back to the era of the Bedouins who roamed the region without fear of crossing borders. Smuggling across the border with Egypt is part of a long tradition in Gaza.

Today the smuggling business is a lucrative and important business. Smuggling is a driving force of the Gaza economy. Nothing will stop the smuggling, not even an iron wall.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran is Going Fusion
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Nuclear Organization came out with an announcement yesterday: they are improving their fusion potential.

That small announcement is code for: Iran is set to build a nuclear fusion reactor.

Until now, Iran has been involved only in fission.

Fission is splitting a massive atom into two or more parts. Fission produces a lot of radiation and is perfect for an atomic bomb.

Fusion is fusing two or more atoms into one larger one. The fusion reaction is 3 to 4 times greater than the fission reaction.

The IRNA, Islamic Republic News Agency, announced that the Nuclear Organization is having a grand opening of their fusion facility on Saturday. If that is true, Iran will have mastered a new level of nuclear science and morphed into a super power.

I do not think this information is an accurate, but I do know that it is an Iranian dream.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Gaza Shopping Mall
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

From the pictures and video I've seen, the new Gaza multi-floor, indoor, Western style shopping center looks very impressive.

The air conditioned mall houses clothing stores, food shops, designer stores, and all the products of international investors like Adidas and Lacoste.

Tens of thousands of people visited during in the first two days the mall was opened. It was a very impressive grand opening. Many probably came because of the air conditioning - a welcome respite from the sweltering heat of Gaza. Others may have come because it is the first shopping mall of its kind in Gaza. But make no doubt about it, the cash registers were ringing up sales.

The difficult part of this whole picture is rationalizing the international image which presents Gazans as a poor and suffering population in need of medical and monetary aid and this high end, upscale portrayal of Gazans.

We need better information. We need to know where the aid is and where the money is going. We need to know what really happens in Gaza.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Al Qaeda Message
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Dr. Ayman Zawahiri has posted an audio file on an al Qaeda website taunting President Obama.

Zawahiri is the number two man in al Qaeda. In recent years, Zawahiri has been the man with the message. He has regularly and successfully delivered the word of Bin Laden to al Qaeda adherents.

The website has several message of import. One message is that Muslim leaders who collaborate with the West are more harmful to the Palestinians than are the Israelis.

Another message comes in the form of a moral lesson for the United States President: "Poor Obama comes to Kabul and he promises that Taliban shall not return to power ... You poor man, can you promise that your hordes will return safely to America?"

Zawahiri wants his followers to know Obama is wrong, he wants them to know that Western soldiers are going to die and he wants them to know that the Taliban is growing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Burqa in Europe
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

First Belgium, then France. Now England. Even Spain is considering it.

Belgium and France have already passed laws against women wearing the burqa, the Islamic headdress worn by women, the headdress that covers the entire face, leaving only a thin slit for the eyes.

In England last week a poll was conducted asking 2,000 people what they thought about passing a British law similar to the French law, a law prohibiting the burqa.
67% of those polled are in favor of enacting such a law.

In Spain the subject of the burqa is already under discussion in the Parliament.

The masses reject the burqa for two very different reasons.
One reason is that the burqa covers a woman's face in public and that flies in the face of womens' freedoms and equality. A second is security, it is impossible to identify people if their faces are completely covered.

For it or against it, the burqa elicits a visceral reaction.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Abbas Makes his Demands
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

George Mitchell, President Obama's Special Envoy in the Middle East, has been talking to the involved parties. Mitchell has spoken to both Abbas and Netanyahu about upgrading to direct talks.

In an interview in a Jordanian newspaper Abbas made clear what he needs to begin direct talks: He wants Israel to accept the pre-1967 borders, he also wants compensation for those who were displaced by Israel's creation in 1948.

The problem with these demands is that it leaves very little room for the direct talks.

Abbas' demands are called preconditions, they want them in order to gain advantage. In the end, preconditions stifle negotiations they don't advance them.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Bombings in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There was a double suicide bombing in Iran. The attack took place in a Shiite Mosque in Zahedan.

The attack was timed to take place on the birthday of Hussein Mohammed's grandson and the progenitor of Shiite Islam. The Mosque was quiet as the Imam read from the Koran when the first explosion ripped thru the mosque.

The first the bomber was a man dressed as a woman. The second bomb exploded twenty minutes later. The one - two bomb attack is becoming a more and more common modus opperendi. At least 27 have been killed, many of them Iranian Revolutionary Guards who were in the mosque in honor of "Iranian Revolutionary Guard Day."

Jundallah, which translates to mean Soldiers of Allah is the Sunni group that has claimed responsibility for the bombings. This group is also responsible for another devastating explosion that took place in Oct of last year killing 40 people.

There is a resistance in Iran. Some reject tradition, some reject Shiite establishment. They all despise the Iranian leadership and their response is to unite and create a real resistance movement.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Lockerbie Hijacker Still Alive
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Last year Scotland released Lockerbie terrorist Abdel Basset al Megrahi and sent him back to Libya.

At the time, the assumption was that al Megrahi was in advanced stages of cancer and on his death bed. Doctors were predicting that the infamous terrorist had only weeks, maybe a month, to live. One of the conditions of his release was that al Megrahi would live out the remaining days of his life quietly and privately - no hoopla.

So what happened? Abdel Basset al Megrahi returned home to Libya as a hero.
And today, he is still alive and a public role model.

Typical, just typical.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Postpone Meetings for a Reason
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Meetings between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have been postponed twice in the past week. Tuesday's meeting was postponed til Wednesday and is now rescheduled for Sunday.

The reason given for these postponements is said to be the ill health of Mubarak. A convenient excuse because almost everyone who monitors Egypt is worried about Mubarak's health - but probably a ruse.

Mubarak wants to wait until Sunday because George Mitchell has a meeting set up on Friday and Saturday with Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas. Abbas is also supposed to meet with Mubarak tomorrow, Thursday.

The real reason is that Mubarak needs to understand the responses of Israel and the Palestinians and then the Egyptian leader needs to try to create some real progress and move the parties together. Abbas has been apprehensive about moving on to direct talks unless there was real progress in the indirect talks.

All this will be unraveled in the upcoming week.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Gaddafi' Son and the Ship to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Saif Gaddafi is Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's son. He is also the head of the Libyan charity that is arranging the ship that departed from Greece headed to Crete and then on to Gaza.

The ship, flying under a Moldavian flag is called the Amalthea and is expected to arrive on Wednesday. Amalthea, known as the foster mother of Zeus, is also the third moon of Jupiter. Amalthea means tender goddess in Greek. Interestingly, in Arabic, amal means hope.

The Amalthea is carrying 2000 tons of food, 12 crew members and 15 activists.

Young Gaddafi was supposed to be on the ship. According to reports, he was on the vessel and his father demanded that he not embark. The fear was that Israel was gearing up to take make certain that the ship not reach Gaza.

Whatever happens, the Israelis will not permit this ship to break the blockade. Libya has said that they want to be practical and if Israel does not permit the aid to enter Gaza, they will get it there another way.

Probably through the Egyptian port of El Arish.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Putting Clerics in Schools
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is going in the offensive.

According to Sunday's Iranian press, Iran is going on the offensive to counteract Western influence on their youth.

The Iranians are dispatching 1000 religious leaders to schools in order to fight the "brainwashing" of their students. The Iranians want to challenge Western influences on their children and prevent the next generation from being indoctrinated by the ideas of democracy and freedom.

Each of the 1000 leaders are themselves religious role models.

Ultimately, the Iranian objective will fail. It is impossible to effectively combat modern influences with doctrine and seclusion. The only way to confront modern freedom is by teaching respect.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Arab League to Meet About Progress
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League is scheduled to meet on July 29 to discuss and evaluate the status of the Palestinian - that's their way of saying Israeli indirect negotiations.

It was the Arab League that underwrote the idea of indirect talks in the first place. Now Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League, is saying that "we are now facing the failure of these negotiations."

The Arab League is composed of foreign ministers from 22 countries and 4 observers. The Arab League sets the tone on almost every foreign policy issue the Palestinians embark on.

The Arab League provides cover and protection. And now the Arab League is slowing down the peace process - which was the reason for indirect talks in the first place.

In the end, the Arab League will not torpedo direct talks nor will they halt any real progress and momentum that the United States is hoping for. It is a classic Arab League move, it is pure bluster.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Travel Alert for Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Bureau for Counter Terrorism issued a warning to all Israelis advising them to be highly aware when travelling.

The Bureau normally issues very specific and precise warnings - this warning is very different.

Here is the text: "According to our intelligence, there continue to be threats of revenge, killings or kidnappings of Israelis traveling outside the country, especially business people and high-ranking ex-government officials."

In other words, Israelis traveling to any and all locations, be careful.

The best intelligence available is saying that Hezbollah is planning to attack Israelis. Hezbollah is monitoring major cities and major hotels, searching for Israeli targets. Hezbollah is ready to quickly snap into action when they find an appropriate target.

This is a real and very dangerous threat.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Sack Her For Her Blog
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Mainstream press has been discussing the CNN news editor who tweeted that she greatly respected Shiite Sheik Fadallah, the religious icon of Hezbollah.

CNN was forced to sack Octavia Nasr after 20 years with the organization. It was simply unacceptable for a CNN editor to heap praise on a person who represented virulent anti-Western attitudes and openly embraced terrorism.

So, what is the difference between CNN and the British Foreign Ministry?

Frances Guy is the British ambassador to Lebanon. Guy blogged, as
opposed to tweeted, about the death of Sheik Fadallah.

The British ambassador to Lebanon wrote: "One of the privileges of being a diplomat is the people you meet; great and small, passionate and furious." "People in Lebanon like to ask me which politician I admire most."

She wrote that the Sheik "impressed her" more than almost any other leader and had "an impact on everyone he meets." "The world needs more men like him willing to reach out across faiths, acknowledging the reality of the modern world and daring to confront old constraints. May he rest in peace."

Frances Guy should be sacked immediately. What is the British foreign office waiting for?

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Arabs Don't Want Iran to Get Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The ambassador from the United Arab Emirates to Washington, DC was interviewed at the Aspen Ideas Festival. The ambassador publically confirmed ideas that we have known for a long time.

He said that the UAE would prefer a US attack against Iran to Iran getting nuclear weapons.

The ambassador said:
"I think it's a cost-benefit analysis."

"I think despite the large amount of trade we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion ... there will be consequences, there will be a backlash and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country; that is going to happen no matter what."

"If you are asking me, 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran?,' my answer is still the same: 'We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.' I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the UAE."

As soon as this story hit the net, the UAE Deputy Foreign Minister went public disclaiming the comments and saying that they were taken out of context.

We now have confirmation: there is no doubt that the Arab world is against Iran going nuclear.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Hezbollah in Mexico
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Mexico has shut down an attempt by Hezbollah to open an operations center.

The news was reported in the Kuwaiti paper al Seyasseh.

It has been assumed for some time now that Hezbollah is attempting to establish strongholds in locations that will allow for the ability to launch attacks against Western and pro-Israel targets.

Some experts have been claiming that Hezbollah intends to be local in their attacks. That simply is just not so. For two years Hezbollah has been rattling their sabers about plans to widen their field and arena of attack. Now we have a prime example of that intention.

Hezbollah is readying for expansion. Part of that expansion is the creation of centers that will help raise money. To do that, Hezbollah will draw on local Shiite affiliates to aid in their cause. Like Mexico.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Assad is Right
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad is visiting Spain. While there Assad offered an important insight into the Middle East.

According to Assad, if Turkey and Israel do not mend their relations then "Turkey would find it difficult to continue its role as mediator."

The Syrian president is absolutely correct. Turkey has taken itself out of the game as a peace mediator.

More importantly, the region is now more unstable because Turkey is no longer a power that can exercise influence in both directions. Turkey cannot influence Israel and Turkey has no control over any Islamic leader.

Turkey has effectively upset the entire applecart of the Middle East and Syria realizes that the region has lost a very important tool for leverage in any future negotiations.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Hamas Summer Camps
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Summer time is camp time in Gaza.

This is the second year that Hamas has organized camps for children across Gaza. All total, there are about 500 Hamas camps servicing about 70,000 kids. Last week the staff spent a few days preparing and organizing, now the camps are up and running.

Most of the camps are in schools and almost all of them include time on the beach and in the Mediterranean Sea. Tuition is free.

Hamas promises that the programs will not include weapons training. But Hamas cannot be trusted. In the past, not only weapons training but also glorifying terrorism and suicide were season highlights.

This is color war of a very different order.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



July 4th Israel Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Today is US Independence Day. As is the tradition across the world, ambassadors and counsel generals have barbeques and invite VIPs and local leaders to celebrate this historic anniversary.

Israel is no different. Today, US Ambassador to Israel, James B. Cunningham, held a July 4th event. Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Liberman, did not attend. According to the foreign minister's office "The minister was on a tour of northern Israel and announced a few weeks ago that he would not be attending."

Israel's foreign minister missed the July 4th celebration hosted by the US ambassador. He did not miss the annual Independence Day celebrations of other countries, like Kenya and Kazakhstan.

This is a clear slap in the face to the United States. It is a slap in the face that, in this case, is long overdue.

Liberman has been regularly dissed by the United States. Even when this Israeli foreign minister is in Washington, DC he is not invited to meet with administration officials. Not a single person in the White House from the president down to his lowliest aides will meet with Avigdor Liberman - not in public and not even in private.

Like him or not, Liberman is also the Foreign Minister of Israel. That title alone should warrant official meetings with United States officials. It's called diplomacy, it's called protocol.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Obama- Bibi Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday July 6, US President Barak Obama will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The meeting will take place in Washington, DC.

Yesterday the White House announced that they are pleased with the progress of the indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. I'm glad that the United States is pleased because that is not at all the impression I have received from either the Israelis or the Palestinians - who have both expressed frustration with the other and with the United States.

Netanyahu is coming into this meeting with plans. But not plans about the Palestinians. Netanyahu has a plan for Iran and a plan for Syria.

The Israeli PM wants to confirm US commitments to confront Iran. On Iran, he wants to make certain that the US does not drop the ball and permit Iran to advance any further in their quest for nuclear technology.

Netanyahu also wants to see if there is any chance of movement on the Syrian side. He is convinced that the Palestinians cannot deliver on any deal and so the Syrian angle is an important distraction from the Palestinians.

It remains to be seen how the United States will react to Israel's plans.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russian Spies
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The arrest of 11 Russian spies, part of an espionage ring that had infiltrated the United States, has been grabbing headlines for a few days now.

Experts have said how amateurish these spies were and how suburban they were. None of that is really important.

The essential reality is that the United States is inundated with spies. Spies sent by enemies and spies sent by friends.

Another reality is that most of these spies are worthless. They have almost no insight and no contacts. They cannot interpret information and they have no idea of what is important and what is ludicrous.

Most of these spies read newspapers and troll websites. Intel officers back home have better knowledge of what is happening than most of these spies on the ground in the US. The only advantage the spies have is that they can monitor and judge the attitude of the people on the streets and in the suburbs. But even that is faulty information.

There is no way of judging what America feels by eavesdropping in Walmart. Most Americans are insulated from real issues and only live within the four limited sides of the tiny cubicles called their lives.
Yes there are spies ... yes most are useless ... and yes ... every once in a while they nonetheless deliver very compromising information. That's why they're here.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Leads Boycott of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran amended their "Law for the Support of Palestine." This law imposed a boycott on all Israeli goods, on all Jewish owned companies and on companies that outwardly do business with Israel.

The amendment also requires that an annual report be presented on the status of the boycott. That puts Coke, IBM, Intel, Nestles directly in the cross hairs or Iran.

Practically speaking, Iran only has about 73 million people. Not a huge market, but large enough to sting these companies. By comparison Israel's population is only 7, 587,000 about a tenth of Iran's.

Iran's hope is that others will join in the boycott. All these companies are searching for emerging markets and hope to expand. Iran knows that if more countries join the boycott, even in name only, significant pressure will be brought on these big companies to abandon Israel.

Iran wants to show how they can isolate Israel and how they can move international corporations to conform to their will. They are implementing their own boycott in the context of additional sanctions being brought on them.

Iran intends to use their boycott as a tool to repel the sanctions.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Saudi-US Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Abdullah King of Saudi Arabia met with President Obama in the White House. They lunched and engaged in a very substantive discussion.

The king and the president had three topics on their agenda:
empowering the Saudi Army to adequately confront Iran
the Palestinian-Israeli peace plan
Iran's nuclear plan

Saudi Arabia is not a friend of Iran. The United States is playing some very important cards which would place Saudi Arabia in the front line of a conflict.

About the Saudi army: Obama promised to help strengthen the Saudi army. If rumors are to be believed, the United States will also supply the Saudis with another 70 F-16s to bolster their air-force.

About the peace plan: The Saudis have advanced a Palestinian/Israeli plan and were the advocates of normalizing relations with Israel. If the US and the Saudis can create a real strategy, they will set their agenda in motion.

About the nuclear plan: Both sides agreed to fight Iran's nuclear advancement.

The US and the Saudis have a mutual agenda and that agenda might be well on the way of being advanced. This plan has not really been made public. There have been discussions about these new-old plans but this is the first time we are seeing Saudi Arabia in official discussions with the Obama White House.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Hezbollah Will Not Talk with the US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Deputy Chief of Hezbollah, Sheik Naim Kassam, announced that Hezbollah has no interest in conducting dialogue with the United States.

How strange. Kassam had been responding to US overtures to begin discussions with Hezbollah. Mid East experts had been pushing for a change in policy toward Hezbollah. The goal was to bring Hezbollah into the realm of respectable organizations and leading political parties. And now this.

Hezbollah won't speak to the US until the US changes its entire Middle East policy.
Hezbollah knows what they are and Hezbollah knows what the US represents.

Hezbollah knows how far they will go to fulfill their ideals.
But Hezbollah does not know and cannot understand the US. Unfortunately the US does not always understand who they are and what they represent.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Mossad Is Changing Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday General Tamim, the Chief of Police of Dubai, said that Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan should have been sacked long ago for blundering the assassination of Hamas leader Mabouh.

Tamim said:
"Dagan should have resigned a long time ago as his intelligence service has been widely exposed by Dubai police and the world especially with the recent expulsion of Israelis diplomats from Western countries. We recommended him to save face and resign but he didn't."

There is no doubt where Dubai stands and there is no doubt that Dubai has scored a series of important post assassination victories. There is also no doubt that Dagan will not step down from his position because of Mabouh's assassination - about which Israel has not said a word.

Dagan will be stepping down as Chief of Israel's Mossad because, quite simply, his tenure has already been extended for two terms - once under Prime Minister Olmert and the second under Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Dagan's time is up because in democracies even secret services must rotate out their people.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Dictators United: Chavez & Assad
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Venezuela yesterday. The visit is being called historic, it is being touted as a visit that will transform the world.

Assad met with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. The two dictators signed a $100 million trade agreement. They declared that Arab and South American cultures should unite against United States imperialism.

"Arab civilization and our civilization, the Latin American one, are being summoned in this new century to play the fundamental role of liberating the world, saving the world from the imperialism and capitalist hegemony that threaten the human species."

Chavez punched the point by saying: "Syria and Venezuela are at the vanguard of this struggle."

Chavez wants to unite the developing world.
Chavez is attempting to unite the developing world by positioning the West and the United States as exploiters of the developing world.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Decoy Jews
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Dutch police have publicly announced that they will be using "decoy Jews" to fight anti-Semitism.
There has been a rise of anti-Semitism in Amsterdam. Most recently, a rabbi was harassed while doing nothing more than walking along a street in Amsterdam.

These decoys will be undercover cops. They will probably wear kippot, sport long beards and some will probably adopt an even more ultra orthodox look. The minister of justice said that in the past, these decoys have been very effective at capturing hard to catch criminals.

The unfortunate reality is that anti-Semitism is becoming more and more acceptable in Europe. Thankfully, democracies are still using this prejudice as a litmus test through which they can better understand their own societies.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Nixes Flotilla
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's former ambassador to Syria made an announcement yesterday saying that the Iranian flotilla was not setting sail for Gaza as originally scheduled.

Hussein Sheik el Islam, who now heads the Iranian Organization to Protect Palestinians, said that Iran will not send this ship because the "Zionists" (the Israelis) have made it clear that they will interpret it as an act of war. He also said that Iran also has another ship ready to depart Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

For weeks Iran has been promising to send ships and aid. On more than one occasion they claimed that they actually were sending the flotilla - but that was for media consumption only.

Now Iran is not only admitting that the ship will not sail, they are also explaining why it will not sail. That's unusual.

Usually, Iran would rather lie than tell the truth if it makes them look weak. In this case the Iranians are more likely to shove off with great fanfare and then turn around than show weakness. That explains why they coupled the cancellation with a promise of future flotillas. They also said that all the aid will be delivered to Gaza using a different method.

We'll see.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



New Nuke Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced yesterday that in the next few days a conference call will take place between Brazil, Turkey and Iran.

The purpose of "the meeting," as they referred to the conference call, is to discuss the nuclear conversion energy deal that they agreed upon last month.

Turkey and Brazil have been insisting that this new agreement with Iran is a real chance for compromise and a way of moving all parties back from the brink of war.

At this point it is highly unlikely that this highly unorthodox agreement between Iran Turkey and Brazil will have an impact on the real status of the conflict between Iran and the West.

Simply put, neither the West nor the rest of the Muslim, has any faith in Iran.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Israel's New Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel launched another spy satellite. It was the Ofek 9 spy satellite.

The Ofek 9 reaches a whole new level of spy capabilities. With this launch Israel now has multiple spy satellites crisscrossing the world all at the same time.

Israel has anywhere between 3 and 6 satellites in the sky. That means that Israel can, independently, cover the world - with no need for aid from any other nation. It means that Israel can now see arms movements, people movements, even cars along with their license plates and drivers.

In this age of intelligence, satellite images are a significant element in decision making everywhere from local police to the most secretive, sensitive corridors of power.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Another Oil Leak
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There is another leaking oil rig in the world.
This leak is much smaller and it is in the Red Sea.

The leak was made public by the Middle East News Agency (MENA) on Monday. MENA asked the Egyptian Government spokesman about the leak point blank and the spokesman admitted that there is a "limited oil leak."

The term limited is not too specific. But we do know that oil has washed up on the shores of a very popular Egyptian Red Sea resort called Hurghada.

This leak must be plugged. Where is the public outrage and outcry? It's all a matter of location.

There is little doubt that information about this leak will even get out. The Egyptian government is not in the business of free flow of information.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



US Passes Thru Suez
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

At least 12 United States ships, including an aircraft carrier, passed thru the Suez Canal this weekend. An Israeli ship accompanied the US naval group.

The most critical point in this scenario is that now the US Naval group is in position to confront both the Iranian challenge and/or the Hezbollah challenge should either of them occur.

The Mediterranean Sea is not that big but it is a stepping stone to Europe Now, more than ever, it is essential that the US protect the Mediterranean Sea from the Iranians.

Iran wants to influence the entire world and they have a plan to carry it out.
The next step is to move expand their influence beyond Hezbollah and Hamas to include the surrounding areas.

If left unchecked, in just a few years Iran will have near total control of the Mediterranean Sea, the gateway to Europe.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Muslims Reject Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

No one who understands the Middle East will be surprised.
Others might be.

The Middle East is a complex, multi-faceted region. Here is one good example:
Pew Research Center, a non-partisan polling outfit headquartered in Washington DC, asked 25,000 respondents in 22 Muslim countries about Iran, about Iran's nuclear ambitions and about whether or not a military strike is an acceptable means to stop Iran.

The overwhelming majority said that Iran should not have nuclear technology.
The hold out country is Pakistan.

In 16 of the 22 countries there was agreement that a military strike should be used to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear technology.
In Egypt 55% said they agreed with a military strike against Iran and only 16% actually disagreed.
In Jordan 53% said yes to a military strike while 20% objected.

The numbers are telling - they prove a very important point that only the people who know, know.
Iran and Iranian nuclear technology are not welcome in the Middle East, this is much larger than a simple US/Israel issue.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russia: Sanctions Are Unfair
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US and the EU have ratcheted up the Iranian sanctions.

The fourth set of sanctions has been now been passed through the UN Security Council. And now the US and EU have independently increased their own sanctions.

Russia is very upset.
They called the actions of the US and the EU "unacceptable."
"For us, attempts to place oneself above the Security Council in this way are unacceptable," the official Foreign Ministry statement said.

Included in these new sanctions will be Iranian oil companies and banks and the businesses controlled by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Russian leaders think that the US and EU are being unfair. Unfair? Yes... unfair.

Russia only voted for sanctions against Iran because they were watered down.
Now Russian is claiming that the US and EU are putting themselves above the Security Council.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



High Tech Firms Go to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

This week, Syria had some very interesting visitors from the United States.

According to SANA, the official Syrian state news agency, executives from Dell, Microsoft, Cisco, Symantec and VeriSign all paid a visit to Damascus. They met with the Minister of Higher Education.

These high level executives are courting Syria. They want to open offices in Syria.
Syria is coming out of the dog house, Wall St style or, more accurately, Silicon Valley style.

There is no good reason for these businesses to expand into Syria except to save money. Given what we know about Syrian higher education and technology, this will be a huge business mistake. It might also be a serious security blunder. Syria could become the easiest portal through which to launch a cyber attack against these companies. If not a cyber attack, then sabotage.

If I were a stock holder in any of these companies, I would be up in arms.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



China & Israel Make a Tourism Deal
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and China are expanding their diplomatic relations and mutual investments. The result will be seen in significant improvements in diplomacy and understanding.

Israel's Minister of Tourism, Stas Misezhnikov, just visited China. The two countries agreed to have a conference and expand tourism. What that really means is that Chinese tourists will now be going to Israel.

China has about 47 million outgoing tourists a year, the largest number of outgoing tourists in the world. If a very small percent of the 47 million come to Israel that alone will result in a huge increase in Israel's tourism industry. It will also have a tremendous impact on China because, by definition, those Chinese tourists coming to Israel will be people of power, China’s leading decision makers and business leaders.

China's modus operandi is to use real politic to determine foreign policy. Their operation has now been expanded to include Israel.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Iran Is Sending Ships to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday a ship heading for Gaza departed Iran fully loaded with toys, food and construction supplies.

Iran claims that another ship will depart on Friday and is asserting that 100,000 Iranians have signed up to sail to Gaza. In addition, 3 Iranian Parliamentarians will be visiting Gaza this week entering via Egypt.

Will the Iranian ships reach Gaza? I doubt it. Permitting Iran to enter the Mediterranean Sea will shift the balance of power. That means that the Iranians can be turned back by the United States navy.

It is also possible that the ship will just disappear. The alternative is worse. If the Iranian ship succeeds in coming close to Gaza, Israel will not permit the ship to break the blockade.

Elite members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are probably aboard the ship lying in wait for an Israeli boarding.
The entire situation is explosive.
The Middle East might light up like a tinder box.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Ahmadinejad Is Blustering
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad has been very busy since the passage of the new sanctions against Iran.

This weekend when interviewed by Iranian State TV the Iranian president said that this vote proves the irrelevance of the Security Council. He called it "the end of the Security Council." He said that the purpose of the Council is a "suppressive tool in the hands of world powers."

In another interview Ahmadinejad said that the United States and Israel were trying to drive a wedge between Iran and their neighbor Saudi Arabia.
The truth is that Saudi Arabia has a very suspicious, problematic, tense, antagonistic and even bellicose and belligerent relationship with Iran. They are far apart diplomatically and their relationship can best be described as tense. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not and do not intend to be friends and that has nothing to do with either the United States or Israel.

Ahmadinejad is blustering - about everything.
The UN Security Council is problematic but has more value than almost any other division of the United Nations.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



4 Terrorists Escaped Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Four terrorists sentenced to death for the murder of a US diplomat in escaped from prison in Khartoum Sudan yesterday.
The terrorists crawled through a sewage pipe which led to the main street and then fled.

Their crime was murdering John Granville, 33 years old and originally from Buffalo, NY. Granville and his driver a local Sudanese hire were returning from a New Year's Eve party held at the British Embassy in 2008. It was 2:30 AM. They were overtaken and their car was riddled with 17 bullets.

In 1973 two United States diplomats were murdered in Khartoum by Palestinian terrorists. Sudan has been a haven for terrorists, but with that exception, there had been a tacit understanding that assassinations should not take place in the Sudanese capital and that Sudanese terrorists should not attack Western diplomats.

This terrorist action and the subsequent break out are a significant transformation of the terrorist modus in Khartoum.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah



Russia Building New Nuke Plants in Iran
By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Friday June 11, 2010

All it took was one day.

The day after new United Nations sanctions were imposed on Iran, Russia took matters into its own hands and modified the rules of sanction.

These were the fourth sanctions imposed on Iran by the Security Council. The permanent members of the Security Council all voted in favor. But not easily. Russia and China were real hold outs. Russia made certain that the sanctions were watered down to permit dealings and interaction. Now we know why.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that Russia is in negotiations with Iran to build more new nuclear power plants. On Thursday Lavrov said: "We are discussing these (new plants) with our Iranian partners, we are practically discussing this now."

Is anybody surprised? I hope not.
Russia and Iran have outsmarted the United States once again.

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UN Sanctions Pass
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Security Council passed its fourth round of sanctions against Iran.

That Russia and China voted in favor of the sanctions is a huge success for the United States. It was Brazil and Turkey who voted against sanctions while Lebanon abstained.

Yesterday, on the very day that the vote took place, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that he has never seen a sanctions program that worked. He cited North Korea as an example saying sanctions have not stopped North Korean from furthering their nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad has said that Russian should think hard about siding with Iran's enemies. Iran has also said that sanctions will have no impact on them. His exact quote about sanctions is that "they are not worth one cent."

The weakness of these sanctions is clear, they do not crack down on either Iranian international banking or trade. That means that Russia can still sell and deliver their highly advanced S-300 missile system to Iran without violating the sanction.

Putin knows what he is talking about.

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Yemen Will Not Extradite The Sheik
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 9, 2010

I've Thinking:

The United States has made a formal request of Yemen and the United States has been rejected.

The US asked Yemen to extradite Yemeni-American Sheik Anwar al-Awlaki. And Yemen said no.

Sheik Anwar al-Awlaki is not just any sheik. He used to preach in the US but has been in Yemen since 2004. Awlaki is the religious mentor that the Fort Hood terrorist corresponded with. He is the person who influenced the Christmas plane bomber. He is the voice that the Time Square Bomber listened to on line.

This man and his teachings are all over the world wide web. Among haters of the West and haters of the United States, Awlaki's teachings are particularly attractive.

Shutting Awlaki down would be a huge success for the United States.
Bringing Awlaki to trial and then ultimately convicting him turns Awlaki into an extremely high value target.

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Iran is Making Their Move
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has made two very important moves and they must be monitored.

# 1: President Ahmadinejad has embarked on a diplomatic trip to Turkey, China and Tajikistan.

# 2 Iran has signed up 8,000 young adults to join flotillas which will sail to Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid. Iran promises to sign up another 8,000 by next week. They claim that their first flotilla will set sail on Sunday.

I doubt that the flotilla will sail on Sunday.
What Iran is doing is setting the stage for a series of important diplomatic moves.

Turkey is the key to Iran's uranium enrichment deal. He is there to attend the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
China holds the key to sanctions at the Security Council.
Tajikistan is the 3rd largest grower of poppy in the world and has a huge opium and heroin trade.
The flotilla is Iran's kick off to an ingenious public relations campaign.

Iran is set to shake up the entire world.
Iran is flying in the face of the United States.

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Pope Speaks Out Against Islam
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Pope Benedict the XVI wound up his visit to Cyprus with a scathing attack against radical Islam.

He said: "Extremist (Islamic) currents, clearly a threat to everyone, Christians and Muslims alike, require a treatment in common."

Pope Benedict has been developing this theme for years, but for the past 18 months his fear has remained practically dormant because of the backlash that met his previous comments.

This Pope understands radical Islam. He as written about it and has taught about it. Whatever it was that stimulated Pope Benedict XVI to speak out against radical Islam once again and express this strong concern, it had to have inspired fear.

Radical Islam is dangerous.
Pope Benedict XVI is issuing a warning to us all.

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Egypt Don't Marry Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian court has ruled that any Egyptian citizen married to an Israeli be stripped of their Egyptian citizenship.

The court handed down their ruling and has now advised the government to implement the law on the grounds that marriage to an Israeli compromises the Egyptian and allows for the possibility that the Egyptian will be used to spy on Egypt.

This entire scenario is indicative of Egypt's bureaucratic point of view on Israel.
Much of Egypt's intelligentsia and the Egyptian elite have nothing but disdain for Israel and for the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.

This prevalent Egyptian attitude is often hidden from the West and from the public eye.
In Egypt, political leadership keeps things like this under wraps.

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Irish Ship En Route to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Irish government has come to a very fair agreement with Israel over the ship that set sail from Ireland en route to Gaza. The agreement is that the ship will dock in Ashdod Israel and unload. The cargo will be checked and then Israel will deliver it to Gaza.

Yesterday, late in the day, the crew that was intent on busting the blockade busted the agreement - they refused to go along with the arrangement.

After hearing this and recognizing the severity and the danger their citizens were in, the Irish Government issued a statement: "the Government demands that (Israel) demonstrate every restraint" when it intercepts the ship.

The Turkish flotilla is only the beginning of a very long wave of blockade busting ships. The summer activity for a certain segment of people will be joining ships destined for Gaza.

Israel has learned a lesson, of that I am sure.
Israel will find other ways to tow ships to Ashdod without endangering Israeli commandos.

Israel will not abandon this blockade.

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Egypt is Part of the Blockade
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has taken it on the chin for blockading Gaza.
But let's look at some of the facts surrounding the blockade.

It is not a secret. Israel has been shutting off sea and land access to Hamas in order to make certain that few weapons, ammo and rockets will get into Gaza and into the hands of terrorists. Whatever gets into Gaza will, ultimately, be used to attack Israel.

Not only Israel. Egypt is also a part of the blockade. Over the past six months Egypt has done an admirable job of keeping their border with Gaza blocked.

But despite it all, Israel still delivers 10,000 tons of humanitarian aid per week to Gaza. And yesterday Israel finished checking the flotilla's cargo and decided to send the safe cargo to Gaza - over land, not sea.

And what happened in the end?
Hamas refused to accept the aid that arrived via Israel.

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Truth is Coming Out About the Boat
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Several important pieces of information have become clear about the humanitarian flotilla.

The group that organized the ships is called IHH. They are headquartered in Turkey and according to terror watch groups around the world IHH has been funding terror for years. A Danish Institute for International Studies report as early as 2006 that the IHH has funded and sent terrorists to, among other countries, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya.

Israel has now interviewed most of the people involved in the lynch. They have determined that almost every single one of the people on board the ship had an affiliation with terror or extremist groups like the Islamic Brotherhood.

We have an obligation to understand exactly what transpired on that boat.

Perhaps the Israelis should not have even boarded the ship, but they did and nothing can justify or whitewash the events that followed.

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What Happened on the Boat
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There has been two types of media coverage on the Israeli boarding of the human rights flotilla headed to Gaza.

Type # 1: Total condemnation. This group immediately attacked Israel using the terms murderers and terrorists. They view this event as an unprovoked attack against innocent human rights activists.
The Muslim world falls into this category. They fall into line and condemn Israel. For most of this group, facts really do not matter and the real story would not change their understanding of the event.

Type # 2: Sheer disbelief. This group saw the video of the Israelis boarding the ship and immediately understood that the Israeli soldiers were beaten, threatened and stabbed.

A whole group of people concerned about the truth. Not politics not propaganda... but the truth of the story should lead. Many Western leaders, including the president of the United States, fall into this category.

This story is not going away. Pictures are too graphic. Emotions are running too high. Facts are too easy to throw by the wayside.
This will be a seminal in Israeli/Muslim relations.

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Iran Demands The US Act Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is elated that the UN Review Conference on Nuclear Non-Proliferation called on Israel to publicly divulge all of its nuclear secrets.

Iran's IAEA representative has been quoted saying how excited he is that the United States will now have to take Israel to task. Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that the US must now demand Israel open all of it secret nuclear facilities to international inspectors.

He said: "The US reservation is symbolic and it is obliged to go along with the world's request, which is that Israel must join the NPT and open its installations to IAEA inspectors."

Ironic? Not in the eyes of Iran.

Hypocritical? Not in the eyes of Iran.

Funny? Not really, Iran is serious about this.

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Bibi & Obama Will Meet Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Prime Minister Netanyahu is fast at work preparing for his meeting with President Obama.

Nukes and peace will be the two central items on the agenda.
Nukes: The United States will continue to pressure Israel to come clean and go public with details about their nuclear program.
Peace: The United States will continue to demand that Israel make concessions, even though they are one-sided concessions.

Netanyahu and by extension, his advisers, are baffled by the US stance on these issues. His mission during this meeting will be to try to convince Obama to change his stance.

Netanyahu will have his work cut out for him.
The United States truly believes that the best way to forge a Middle East Peace is to force a nuclear free zone in the region.

This idea is a clear misunderstanding of the Middle East and entirely preposterous.

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A Bank Robbery in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The scene could have come out of Mel Brooks movie.
It takes place near Najajf, Iraq, actually 20 miles south of Najaf, in the town of al Mishkhab.

$5 million US dollars is stolen from the state-run Al-Rafidain Bank. It was an inside job.

It happened at the crack of dawn. A guard in the bank slipped a mickey into the tea of his fellow guards. It was a sleeping pill. After they were all asleep the guard-turned-bank-robber made off with the cash.

This is so very funny because Iraq is truly becoming like very other country, and of course, who would have thought about giving a sleep drug to guards? Only another guard, of course.

Obviously, the bank robber's identity is known. Now it is only a matter of time until the guard is apprehended and the money, or at least, most of the money is returned. This guy watches the wrong movies.

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Iran & Russia Exchange Hits
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

After it became clear that Russia will be backing the new international sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council, some serious words were exchanged between Iran and Russia.

Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the press that he was not certain whether Russia was a "friend or an enemy." In response, the Russian foreign minister said that the Iranian president was "venting his rage."

Here's a news flash: Ahmadinejad does not show rage in public.
Ahmadinejad is never caught off guard and any pathos he shows is well choreographed. He is very effective and always maintains control. Anger is a tool and emotion is a vehicle and this Iranian leader has mastered the art and skills of political communications.

Ahmadinejad never believed that Russia was a friend.
Iran knows that Russia is always up for sale.

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UN Fails Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Review Conference on Nuclear Energy is about to wrap up.

The Conference began with Ahmadinejad raving about US and Western countries butting into the business of others.
The Conference is ending with 189 countries issuing a declaration about the status and dangers of nuclear development in the world today.

The 29 page draft does not contain a single word about Iran or about the Iranian nuclear program. Not a single word - and why? Because the Iranians said they would veto the declaration if they were mentioned. So the powers that be left Iran out.

This decision shows the Conference to be nothing but a sham.
If Iran cannot be castigated today given the political climate and given the public comments emanating from Iran and given Iran's record of compliance, then it is clear that the international community has given up trying to control Iran's nuclear ambitions.

That is sad.
That is scary.

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Assad Gives Voice to the Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Syria President Bashar Assad met with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in Damascus on Sunday.

Emboldened by the meeting, Assad is making some serious statements about the United States and by extension, about the West and about its role in the Middle East.

"If the West wants security and stability to be established in the Middle East, [it] must start to play an effective role to contain Israel and put an end to its extremist policies."

The bottom line is that Syria thinks the way the rest of the Middle East thinks. The problem with that way of thinking is that despite some ups and downs in their relationship this is hardly the beginning of the end of the special relationship between Israel and the US.

Assad is trying to take advantage of the now bumpy relationship between the United States and Israel to announce the Arab point of view to both the Muslim and the Western world.

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Iran is Threatening The West
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is making threats.

Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, said that Iran will scrap any deal involving enriching uranium outside of Iran if another level of sanctions is enacted.

Larijani made the announcement in an interview broadcast on national Iranian media.

This is not an idle threat by Iran. Iran embarked on their new deal with Turkey and Brazil assuming that the new sanctions would be instituted.

Iran and Iranian allies will now blame the Western world for preventing progress that would solve the stalemate. Non-Western countries will almost certainly be convinced that Iran did its all and that Iranian attempts at compliance were stymied.

Once again, Iran is doing an end around the West.

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Russia Will Deliver the Missiles to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has just announced that they will be supplying Iran with the new and very sophisticated S - 300 missile. This S - 300 will make it much more difficult for the United States and/or Israel to strike Iran.

Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Parliament, Mikhail Margelov, made it very clear when he said: "Russia is a responsible supplier to international markets and it has no interest in working towards arming the Middle East."

The only problem is that Russia is arming the Middle East. And even after new sanctions against Iran were decided upon, Russia is still supplying Iran with very highly sophisticated weapons. Their argument that previous agreements must be upheld is a sorry excuse for their behavior.

There is no reason to supply Iran with these weapons. But Russia wants and needs the money and Russia wants and needs to secure a reputation for providing weapons to problematic parts of the world.

Russia should be first warned, next censured and then punished if they violate sanctions against Iran or, for that matter, against any other country.

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Hezbollah Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli military censor has just made public important intelligence, making it clear for publication.

The now-public intelligence clarifies the exact type of missile that Syria has transferred to Hezbollah. The missile is an M-600, a homemade Syrian missile which is a copy of an Iranian missile which is a copy of the Chinese DF 11A missile. The number of rockets transferred reaches into the hundreds.

The M-600 is smaller than a SCUD and can be launched much faster. It is much more accurate than a SCUD and has a range of 200 miles. It weighs 3.5 tons and has a half ton war head. This weapon is even more dangerous than the SCUD.

Hundreds of M-600s in the hands of Hezbollah is a chilling thought. The biggest questions are how do you defend against the M-600 and how do you knock them out. Because of their quick launch time, the M-600 cannot be easily hit before it is activated.

An all out defensive is the only real response to the M-600. That is a very costly venture for Israel to undertake.

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The Golan for Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Late Tuesday Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had his meeting with Israeli president Shimon Peres.

Peres proposed a unique idea to resolve the tension in the Middle East.
He asked Medevdev to relay a message to Syria.

Peres said that Israel was willing to cede and withdraw from the entire Golan Heights if Syria would drop it ties with Iran and stop their cross border smuggling and open house policy for terrorists.

So far, there has been no response.
This is a case of Israel calling Syria’s bluff.

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Jihad Tours
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah has been running "Student Jihad Tours."
The objective is to expose university students to Hezbollah's history and heroism.

Hezbollah filled five buses with Christian and Muslim students for a weekend of education and indoctrination.

One student said it was like being in Disney World. They were shown how to shoot rockets, they were brought to the sites of famous battles, they met with Hezbollah fighter and leaders.

In the course of the "tour" the participants grew to admire the terrorists. A student was quoted on the Al Arabia web site as saying that they (the participants) believe that these people are fighter and heroes - not like the rest of the world who see them as terrorists.

Hezbollah is working the PR angle from the inside out.
Hezbollah is trying to recruit and convince Lebanese citizens to join their public relations campaign around the world.
That is the real purpose of the tours, the students are Hezbollah's means to their end.

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Iran's New Agreement
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The new agreement allowing Iran to export uranium, have it enriched in Turkey, then returned to Iran, is good news for Iran.

It helps Iran because Iran gets the Uranium.
It helps Iran because it appears as if the Iranians are complying with a compromise.

It helps Iran because it does not stop Iran from enriching their own uranium at home.

The agreement is a sham.

Iran has no interest in giving up their enrichment. This agreement gives them license to continue enriching and even advancing beyond their given 20% allowance.

Once again, Iran is the big winner.
Once again, the world shows just how gullible we all are when it comes to Iran.
Kudos to Iran, they have outsmarted us all once again.

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Recount in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The recount in Iraq is finally concluded. Now the real work begins.

Ever since the March election there have been claims about fixes in certain provinces and questions about who really won. Now the recount is official and the truth has emerged. The recount confirms the exact numbers of the earlier election.

This is bad news for Nuri al Maliki the current leader of Iraq and the head of the Shiite Coalition party. Al Maliki's party did not win a plurality in the 325 seat Parliament, on the contrary, the party earned only 89 seats. Even if all Shiites join together they would only reach 159 seats and fail to garner the 163 seats needed to rule.

The secular al Iraqia party has won the plurality of 91 seats.

It is unclear who will successfully form the coalition of parties necessary to rule. Both the Shiite Coalition party and the Iraqia party will try. It is also legally unclear who gets priority to begin trying to form the coalition.

We can only watch and wait.

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Israel Versus North Korean
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Foreign Minister, Avigdor Liberman, announced that North Koreans are responsible for the proliferation and spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

On Israeli Army Radio Liberman declared: "To our regret we see a mad arms race in the country. Everything must be done in order to thwart their attempts to reach a nuclear capability."

He said: "Up until today there were neither sanctions against Iran nor against North Korea. They need to be completely closed in terms of financial activities; the two states need to understand they are dependent on the supply of petrol because they have no refineries."

The Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman called Liberman an "ultra extremist" and "an imbecile in diplomacy." Given the antipathy directed toward Israel and Liberman this is no surprise.

Liberman is making a link between Iran and North Korea.
North Korea wants to distance itself from Iran and stay out of the limelight while also trying to radicalize Israel.

Who is more believable - North Korean or Liberman and Israel?
In this case - there is no doubt that North Korea is not credible.

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Syria Buys Russia MiG -29
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Syria is enormously pleased with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's trip to the Middle East. And why shouldn't they be?

Russia promised to supply Syria with a slew of MiG-29's and a battery of anti-aircraft weapons. Of course Syria is elated, any fighter plane is a quantum improvement for the antiquated Syrian air-force.

The MiG - 29 is hardly the best plane in the Russian arsenal. Russia has not updated the technology since the 1980's and last year they grounded all MiG - 29's. They are now selling them off at the good deal of $25-29 million a piece. That's a very good price for a flawed weapon.

The MiG -31 and MiG -27 have been updated and upgraded.
The MiG - 29 is simply an old fighting machine.

FYI MiG stands for Mikoyan - Gurevich the names of the two men who created the company.

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Russia Wants Hamas at Peace Talks
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has suggested bringing Hamas into the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Round 1:
That was the announcement made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during his recent trip to the Middle East.

Round 2:
Yesterday Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman shot back comparing Hamas to Chechnian terrorists. He said: "Developed countries cannot separate terrorists into good ones and bad ones based on their geographic location."

Round 3:
Russia responded by saying that they will not be intimidated by Israel.

Russia truly believes that the best way to bring about an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians is to make certain that Hamas is also at the table.

Russia is wrong.

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Syria Defends Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, visited Damscus and had a meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The press conference afterward was telling.

Assad insisted that further sanctions will not be successful in stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear technology. He said that that sanctions will not make the region safer. Assad proclaimed that "it is every country's right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes."

Syria has already attempted to create a nuclear facility with the help of the North Koreans.

Iran and Syria are linked in their desire to attain nuclear weapons. They are linked because they believe that the United States is leading a cabal preventing them from becoming a nuclear power. They consider nuclear status to be their right. Ahmadinejad even uses the term inalienable right when speaking of developing nuclear energy.

They are wrong. It is a privilege that must be earned through trust. Neither Syria nor Iran has yet to earn that trust.

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Typical Timing
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday within hours of an announcement made by Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell saying that there would a moratorium on building, Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat announced that he will continue to build in Jerusalem.

Barkat proclaimed that Jerusalem needs to expand and that he will build for Jews and for Arabs in Jerusalem as long as the Israeli Ministry of Housing provides permission to build.

In Barkat's eyes both Arabs and Jews need new homes in Jerusalem and the budget is already provided. Not to build is counterproductive and is not a part of his vision for Jerusalem.

Barkat is not a settler, he is not an expansionist. He understands Jerusalem - Jerusalem is a city of Arabs and a city of Jews.

The "Proximity Talks" will fail.
The Palestinians are counting on the Jews to build in Jerusalem. For them it is an excuse to torpedo the talks. For the Israelis it is a necessary for survival.

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Proximity Talks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

I need to explain the rationale of the new "Proximity Talks."
Proximity Talks is the euphemism for indirect talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians mediated by US special presidential envoy George Mitchell.

The presumption going into the talks is that each side assumes that the other will torpedo the talks - an interesting assumption, to be sure.

The Palestinians do not want the talks. They want to see Israel fail and fail big with diplomatic egg all over their faces. The Palestinians have made it clear that they will walk away from the talks if there is so much as a single bit of construction in the West Bank. The Palestinians want the US to pressure Israel to give in on a number of issues without negotiations. They want the US to force Israel to relax their stand and to literally roll over on issues - all as punishment for violations like settlement activity.

The Israelis want security. They know that the Palestinians cannot deliver security. As a result, they are certain that Hamas will destroy any potential agreement. Israel knows that Abbas cannot deliver basic issues in terms not only of security but also of police and organization. The Israelis are waiting it out, they are hoping that after the Palestinians fail, it will be clear to the US that the Palestinians were never committed to a real agreement.

Both sides are counting on the other to stumble.
The chances of success are, obviously, meager at best.

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Security Council Has Dinner WIth Iranian Envoy
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki hosted a dinner at his United Nations ambassador residence. His guests were all the members of the UN Security Council.

This dinner was a very bold move. It is rare that Security Council members are invited to dinner for what Iran called a "frank discussion." It was assumed that people on the ambassadorial level would not, themselves, attend. In the end the ambassadors of 11 of the 15 members participated. Only the US, Russia, Britain and France did not send ambassadors. They sent other representatives in their stead.

The Iranian Foreign Minister explained that it was not a negotiation, but a discussion. Everyone in attendance came because, as the United States explained, they were there in the hope "of hearing something new."

Iran is moving to stop another round of sanctions. The Iranians argued that they have the right to pursue safe nuclear energy. The dinner guests argued that Iran must work harder to convince the international community that they are trustworthy.

Never underestimate Iran.

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Goldstone Sentenced People to Death
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli mass circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth has made public their investigation into Richard Goldstone.

Goldstone, a South African Jew who authored the scathing report condemning Israel's actions during their conflict with Hamas during Operation Caste Lead, was a judge in South Africa during the 1980's and 1990's under the Apartheid Regime.

Judge Goldstone sentenced at least 28 blacks to death.
Judge Goldstone sentenced people to be lashed for listening to anti-Apartheid audio tapes.
When asked about these decisions Goldstone's defense was that he was just following the laws of the country.

Alan Dershowitz was repulsed by Goldstone's comments.
Dershowitz recalled Mengele's defense which was that he was just following orders.

Hannah Arendt wrote a compelling thesis explaining the "banality of evil" after witnessing the trial of Adolf Eichmann trial in Jerusalem. The Eichmann defense was that he was but a part of larger system, following orders, a cog in a wheel.

Goldstone should know that morally and legally his is a seriously problematic argument.
Eichmann, Mengele - is that the company Goldstone really wants to keep.

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Bomber was Inept
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Here's the low down on the Times Square bomb.

Faisal Shahzad did not pass the course on bomb making.
The fertilizer he used was non-combustible.
The M88 fireworks he chose were completely inappropriate for the job at hand.
They are almost impossible to self-ignite, they need fire. They do not explode. They are 98% paper and each one contains only 50 mg of explosive. The box that was found in the car contained 36 units which is just over 15 grams of explosives - that equals about 1/2 spoon full.
The propane tanks he thought would finish off the job would only explode if the temperature reached extremely hot temperatures in excess of 1000 degrees.

If would-be terrorist and bomb maker Shahzad had paid any attention to the instruction during his training he would have succeeded. These instructions are all over the internet.

Lucky for us all. Next time we will not be this lucky.

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US Tells Hows Many Nukes They Have
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

While Ahmadinejad was chastising the United States and attacking Israel at the UN, the Pentagon was releasing US nuclear details.

The US has 5113 nuclear missiles.
That number is a tiny fraction of what the US used to have. In 1967 there were over 31,000 nuclear missiles under US control.

This reduction of nuclear arms makes the world safer.
That is the real purpose of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The review that is now taking place in New York at the UN .is a secondary reason

Ahmadinejad is indeed moving toward nuclear energy and from there to nuclear weapons. Iran is claiming that they are only interested in nuclear technology for energy and medical reasons. That is a false claim.

Iran has an agenda. Iran wants to control the world. Iran wants a nuclear weapon.
With that weapon Iran will be positioned as the most powerful country in the Middle East and one of the most powerful countries in the world.

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Hezbollah is Ready for War
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Kuwaiti newspaper al Watan is reporting that Hezbollah has concluded their preparations for war. The paper quotes a Hezbollah source who says that Hezbollah has learned the lessons of the Second Lebanese War.

"Fighters in the organization and its armed units are prepared to stave off any new Israeli attack. They will surprise Israel with the quality of its weapons that will be used in any future battle." The source also made it clear that "At the same time, Hezbollah is determined not to give Israel any excuse to start a new war."

Hezbollah is working very hard to preparing for war. Those preparations are a direct threat to Israel and to the region.

Hezbollah is making it clear that they are a power to be reckoned with and they are not in the least afraid of Israel.

Hezbollah is flexing muscles in the hope to prevent an attack. Ironically, it is exactly that muscle flexing that may just cause Israel to attack.

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Hezbollah and their Rockets
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The story about SCUDs making their way from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon has been covered by the international news media.

In response to the coverage the Syrians, Hezbollah, the Iranians and even the Lebanese and Hamas have are calling the story nothing nonsense.
The chorus of protests proves that, indeed, the shipment took place.

These new missiles are much more dangerous than the old SCUDs. They have a longer range and are far more accurate. Good intel figures that Hezbollah now has 45,000 rockets and missiles. The most dangerous of those rockets and missiles, about 400-500 in all, have a very long range allowing them to hit anywhere in Israel if shot from northern Lebanon.

The one important drawback to these missiles, which works to Israel's advantage, is that because they are long range they require liquid fuel and the fueling takes about 30 minutes.

Hezbollah has created netting and camouflage and bunkers to try to allow them to fuel up just before launch. That is when they are most vulnerable. That is when Israel will hit them.

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Ping Pong in the Oval Office
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A game of Middle East ping pong is being played in the Oval Office.

One moment the White House criticizes Israel. The next moment they claim to be beside Israel unconditionally. A minute later the Administration is threatening Israel.

It is not uncommon to utilize the good cop / bad cop scenario in foreign affairs. It works when some members of the team have better relations with the other side while others are more suited for the role of the stern bad cop. But this ping ponging of the administration is taking it to extremes.

Now it is being reported that David Hale, George Mitchell's deputy, told the Palestinians that the United States is extremely upset with Israel's building policy in Jerusalem. Hale told the Palestinian leadership that the US is considering condemning and censuring Israel in the Security Council.

This would be a first.
If true, this means that the United States is not providing Israel with the safety net it promised. That means that Prime Minister Netanyahu is un-tethered (excuse the pun) and free to do whatever he wants.

The big question now is this: Will the United States have control over the Muslim world after they switch sides. I tend to doubt that they will.

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Belgium's New Law
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Belgium's Lower Parliament has voted to ban Muslim facial covering.

The ban will most certainly be approved by the Higher Parliament. This would be the first country to ban the Muslim dress. France is planning on voting on a similar bill later this year, but they are not there yet. This bill will generate a huge backlash from Muslims around the world.

Belgium has a population of 10 million people. The maximum number of Muslims in Belgium is 4 percent. That would be about 400,000 Muslims in total, plus approximately another 150,000 Muslim illegal immigrants.

The logic in Belgium is the same as the logic in France. Head covers present a security risk and security risks are an affront to the concept of freedom for women.

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UN Has Plans to Try Pirates
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Somalia is complaining that their judicial system is overburdened by piracy trials.

So Russia has suggested that the United Nations set up a court to try pirates who have been captured after terrorizing shipping lanes across the high seas.
The UN Security Council has agreed to the Russian proposal and charged the UN Secretary General to iron out the details within three months.

The pirates have wreaked havoc on the seas. They have free reign and even after being caught in the act, many have been released and allowed to board their own boats, but without their weapons. They are released because their captors do not have the jurisdiction to arrest and try them.

If the Secretary General comes back with a good proposal, new court may help just help crack down on these pirates.

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Ghadaffi is Giving Adivse
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Muammar Ghadaffi is at it again.
The Libyan leader is dispensing advise to anyone who asks and even to those who don't.

Ghadaffi hosted a group of forty Israeli Arabs, including several members of the Israeli Knesset. Ghadaffi advised the group that the best way to solve their conflict with Israel is to reproduce and have more children. That way, he says, Israel will have to deal with them - the more Palestinians there are the more seriously the Israelis will have to take them.

And then yesterday, in a TV interview, Ghadaffi said that he was deeply insulted that he was not invited to the United States Conference Nukes. He said Libya was the last country to give up nukes and they were not even invited to the meeting of the big players. He asked: What hope is there of enticing Iran and North Korea if Libya is not brought into the fold.

When he is off base, Ghadaffi is way off base.
But sometimes, he is right on target.

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Egypt Calls Israel the Enemy
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the US are livid over the statements made by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Gheit in an interview during a visit to Lebanon. Egypt called Israel an enemy.

The interviewer asked the foreign minister if his mission in Lebanon was to pass on a message from the government of Israel to the government of Lebanon.

His response was that he would not come to a sister Arab country with a message from the enemy.

The enemy!

Egypt and Israel have a peace treaty and a relationship.
The United States sees Egypt as the pivotal hinge in the entire peace process.

How can Egyptian an leader, someone who is so close to President Mubarak say such a thing. It had to have been sanctioned.

This episode took place on Saturday. Thus far, there has been no recanting, no public apology and no public dressing down of the foreign minister.

This message was planned and purposeful.

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Taliban Executing People Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Taliban are torquing up the tension. They are executing suspected US collaborators.

Last week the Taliban brutally murdered four men believed to be aiding the United States by giving information and locations of Taliban strongholds.

The bodies were dumped in a location that could be prominently viewed by passersby. Attached to the dead bodies were notices and postings warning others to learn their lesson from these dead spies.

One was decapitated. Three had their throats cut. Their hands were severed. These desecrations are messages to the masses to actively repudiate the evil in their midst.

The irony is that it has been the Pakistani army, not US troops, who have really taken up the cause of attacking the Taliban, but it is the United States that is to be blamed. Naturally.

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GRAD Hits Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Jordanians have announced that Aqaba, their southernmost city, was hit by a GRAD missile on Thursday.
Very little information was offered, other than that the missile came from outside of Jordanian territory.

This is a deeply problematic issue.
Aqaba is situated on the Red Sea, bordering Saudi Arabia on one side and Israel on the other. Just across the port, only a few miles away, is the Egyptian part of the Sinai Desert. Aqaba is Jordan's only port and that makes it a significant strategic and economic target. Any terrorist wanting to disrupt the Jordanian economy would do well to hit Aqaba.

The Russian-made GRAD is the most sold and most used rocket in the world. It will be very difficult to trace this rocket because of the GRAD’s attractive resale value. Whoever shot the GRAD into Aqaba got it from someone who got it from someone.

Jordan is taking this very seriously.
My best guess is that the GRAD was shot from Saudi Arabia into Jordan by al Qaeda.

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Buying a New Car In Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Thousands of tunnels supply Gaza with anything and everything the Palestinians need, all at a premium price. Smuggling is an economy in Gaza.

In Gaza, tunnels are specialized. I just saw a picture of a tunnel that was dedicated to smuggling cars from Egypt into Gaza. The total cost of a brand new Hyundai in the Palestinian Authority is $40,000. The car can be bought in Cairo for $20,000, but buying it in Gaza it costs $31,000 and then the Gaza Hamas government adds on another $9,000 in taxes and fees.

Until recently, new cars were dismantled and then reassembled. They were taken through the tunnels in pieces. Now the tunnels are big enough that you can actually drive cars into and out of them without getting so much as a scratch.

Egypt has been shutting down the tunnels from their side.
That has put a real damper on the new car sales in Gaza.

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Egypt & Change?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A movement for democracy is gaining ground in Egypt.
Every member of that movement lives in constant fear.

They fear arrest, or worse, they fear being murdered by the regime. Despite the warm relationship Egypt has with the United States and with the West, we must always remember that Egypt is a dictatorship. That is something the pro-democracy movement knows well.

Yesterday, a small group of some 30-40 protestors gathered in front of the Parliament in central Cairo. They had been warned in advance not to assemble, but they came anyway. They held up signs reading "Shoot Us" and "Shoot US with Bullets." The protest ended peacefully.

Egypt is the midst of serious crisis for its future.
Hosni Mubarak, a traditional dictator nearing the end of his life, has not yet appointed a successor.
The West is demanding that Egypt change and liberalize.
The country is torn between a very strong Islamic movement that wants to create a theocratic state and a handful of democratic-thinking liberals.

At this point, there is no way to know what will happen, but Egypt warrants careful watching.

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Happy Birthday Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In certain circles, Israel bashing has become the fad.
The sad reality is that much of the bashing is done by American Jews who, although they truly love Israel, feel it incumbent upon themselves to critique her in order to force Israel towards change.

Today is Israel's Independence Day.
Israel is 62 years old.
And while Israel is imperfect, the world is a far improved place because Israel came into statehood in 1948.

Israel has graced the world with inventions and advances in computers, technology, medicine, science and telecommunications.
Israel has impacted upon the world through research and study in the fields of literature, philosophy, language, economics and history.
Israel has contributed great ideas in the areas of morals, ethics and the law.

Few societies in today's world can openly evaluate their accomplishments and take communal pride in knowing that they have changed the world for the better.

Those who love Israel and those who are bound to Israel share in her pride.
Happy Independence Day, Israel.
Happy 62nd Birthday.

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Ahmadinejad's Letter To Obama
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Ahmadinejad has once again written a letter to President Obama. His first letter was a letter of congratulations. His second letter is not.

This letter was sent, delivered and has been confirmed by the White House. We know the content of the letter because Ahmadinejad wants us to know what it says. The Iranian media covered the communication and Ahmadinejad divulged what he wrote.

The letter reads that the United States needs Iran - not the other way around. The letter reads that spreading lies about Iran is how the United States keeps its power.

Ahmadinejad explained that Iran has the power to escape from the grip and control of the United States, that Iran has real true power. He explained that the logic the US uses to evaluate what happens in the world is seriously flawed.

When Ahmadinejad wrote to George Bush it was an 18 page long and rambling communication. This letter is very different, it is a shot across the bow.

With this letter Ahmadinejad is announcing that Iran has a plan - and that the United States is clueless.

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Iran's Nuke Conference
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran opened their special conference yesterday. The conference is called "Nuclear Energy for All Nuclear Weapons for None."

Last month I discussed how Iran was planning this meeting and how it would be the perfect vehicle to sway and even convince undecided countries to support Iran's quest for nuclear technology. 60 countries are participating. 10 foreign ministers and 14 deputy foreign ministers are in attendance.

Opening day was filled with vitriol and fanfare. The vitriol was directed at Israel and the United States. The fanfare was all about mobilizing against a world that is run by and influenced by the United States.

A message from Iran's Supreme Leader The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei was read. The message reiterated Iran's most repeated comments: the only country in history to perpetrate a nuclear war crime was the United States against Japan and Israel is stockpiling nuclear weapons while the Iranians are prevented from even creating nuclear energy.

Watch this conference carefully - it is the preliminary round for the next diplomatic conflict.
Iran is setting the bar very high.
Iran is successfully convincing other countries of their peaceful objectives and of the evils of the United States.
Iran may quite possibly, successfully, stymie any Western foreign flank that attempts to stop them.

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American Jews Support Obama on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Most of you have seen the polls.

73% of American Jews, see the US/Israel relationship as very strong.
55% of American Jews support President Obama's current approach to Israel. 80 % believe that peace cannot be achieved with Hamas.

On the Israel side only 6% -10% of Israelis agree with Obama.
While it is clear that American Jews recognize that the Arab side is not a willing partner for peace, the disparity with Israeli Jews is startling.

How does one explain the disparity?
The Jews of America understand the risk but not the significance of the risk. That risk is the very existence of Israel.
This is a risk Israelis understand all too well.

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Hamas Is Executing
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has begun to execute people for collaborating with Israel. Two were executed yesterday.

There are a whole slew of people on death row in Gaza. Eight are Fatah officers. Most of the Fatah officers were tried in absentia and have been convicted. But there are large numbers of people who await execution and are in the hands of Hamas. All of them convicted of treason.

All of these executions violate Palestinian law. But Hamas has its own law and they do not follow the Palestinian law that requires the Presidents signature to execute anyone.

Hamas claims that it is following British Mandate law from 1936 and Jordanian law from the 1960's. But this is also untrue. These laws require British Colonial approval and the Jordanian law required the Kings approval. So who approves the executions? The same people who tried and convicted the prisoners.

Most often the trials were in the middle of the night there was no defense and no appeal.

Hamas has its own government. They are not even playing by the Palestinian Authority rules. They play by Hamas' rules.

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Too Much Pressure on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has been pressuring Israel to sign the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The pressure has increased now that the Washington DC nuclear convention, with 47 countries in attendance, has concluded.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak made a clear announcement.
He said that Israel will not be pressured by the United States.

"There is no room to pressure Israel to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has never threatened to annihilate other nations and peoples, while today Iran, and also Syria, Libya and Iraq in the past, all of whom signed this treaty, have systematically violated its stipulations while explicitly threatening Israel's existence."

Barak is correct.
Israel cannot be pressured by the US, too much is at stake.
Israel cannot open its nuclear facilities to international inspections.
Israel cannot divulge their details, the details are what keeps Israel alive.

Israel uses the nuclear card to frighten their enemies.
That alone should be enough to make certain that Israel need not divulge the details of its nuclear potential.
The United States should know better.

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Move Counter Move
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It's move, counter move between the United States and Iran.

The United States is moving to prepare new sanctions against Iran because of their nuclear program.
And Iran has announced that it has new nuclear centrifuges.

This is the third generation of Iranian centrifuges.
They are Iran's response to the 4th round of sanctions against them.
It does not appear that Iran is the least bit concerned about the new sanctions.
Actually, Iran flaunts the whole idea of sanctions by publicly announcing new technology concerning their nuclear program.

Iran actually has holds a National Nuclear Day.
During the celebrations on this great day, Iran announced that they will retaliate against the United Sates if they are threatened by the United States.

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Iran Says US is Out of Line
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Supreme Leader, The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, has made an announcement.

The Ayatollah, who has the ultimate say on all issues in Iran from politics to religion, announced that Iran will lodge an official complaint against the United States at the United Nations because the US President Obama threatened Iran with a nuclear attack.

Iran claims that when Obama was asked about the new nuclear limitations that the United States is instituting, his answer was an implicit nuclear threat to Iran.

What Obama said was that North Korea and Iran were not part of the new nuclear weapons limitations that the US was establishing for itself.

In the eyes of the Iran, Obama's comment is a threat.

Why? Because the new limits prevent the US from using nukes in pre-emptive strikes - against everyone except North Korea and Iran.

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Ghaddafi and Israeli Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi recently invited Israeli Arab leaders to a meeting.

The invitation was issued and delivered thru the Libyan Embassy in Amman, Jordan and then ushered across the Israeli border to Nazareth where the official invitation was received.

The purpose of the meeting was to inform Arabs living in Israel, through their leadership, of the Arab League's decisions about the Palestinian/Israeli Peace process.

This is a first.
Arab citizens of Israel have always been kept out of the loop.
They hear about events and decisions only indirectly and through news coverage.

In truth, Arab Israelis are not major players.
The fact that Ghaddafi is reaching out to them is telling.

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Steal A Cell Phone and Get Access
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes it feels as if we are living out a television sitcom.

An Israeli chief of police left his cell phone in his unmarked car.
The car, of course, was burglarized and the phone was stolen.

Had the phone been locked or had it been a new G-3 Apple, the security system would probably not be too badly preached. But only a fraction of people who are in important security jobs actually lock their phones.

This burglar now has access to the private numbers of the most important and security sensitive people in Israel. The head of the Mossad, the head of internal security, the head of military intelligence just to name a few. He probably now has numbers for the prime minister.

The lucky thief is probably unaware of whose car he broke into.
But just imagine if he was an al Qaeda agent, or a Syrian, or an Iranian contractor. With these cell phone numbers he would have the ability to eavesdrop upon and keep surveillance on the most important people in Israel.

The situation is scandalous.
The ramifications are frightening.

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Hamas Injures Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas shot a rocket from Gaza toward Israel - and it fell short.
The rocket landed in a residential are, in an apartment complex - in Gaza.
The number of wounded is unclear, property damage is extensive.

We will never know how many people were actually hurt by this misguided rocket that accidentally fell on and killed Palestinians instead of the intended targets, Israelis.

A Palestinian humanitarian group asked Hamas to be more careful when shooting rockets.
They said that hurting Palestinians is unacceptable.

Think about that statement, that sentiment, for a moment.
The opposite side of that thought is galling - that while it is unacceptable to injure Palestinians, it is perfectly acceptable and permissible to hurt innocent Israelis.
What kind of system and what kind of humanity is it that condemns hurting one innocent civilian but permits and even applauds the death of another.

Hamas should stop shooting rockets. Period.
Then Palestinians will no longer hurt innocent Palestinians.
At the same time, they will also stop hurting innocent Israelis.

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Obama's New Peace Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Two high level Obama administration officials had a sit down with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.

They were pitching a new approach to the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations.
According to Ignatius' column, the White House wants to launch a new plan.

The Administration is frustrated by "incrementalism."
Incrementalism is the idea that everything works in slow stages, one difficult idea at a time.
The Administration's new plan is to create a Palestinian/Israeli peace program based on the agreement almost attained at Camp David in 2000.

Actually the new plan simply appears to be a rehash of old plans, but we will know more when more details about the idea are floated.
The new plan sounds great in a vacuum i.e., in a meeting between two officials and a Washington Post columnist.
The real problems will emerge when real parties i.e., the Palestinians and Israelis are called in for comment and cooperation.

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Iran Uses Fighting Words
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Defense Minister of Iran, Ahmed Vahidi, has made a dramatic announcement.

While on tour with President Mamoud Ahmadinejad, Vahidi said that if Israel should strike Iran, Iran will totally destroy Israel in a counter attack.

Vahidi said that if the "Zionist regime attacks Iran" then "there may not be anything left of it."
Then he added a comment about Israel admitting that they do not have the strength to attack Iran.

Iran is on the attack.
Iran is on the attack diplomatically and militarily.
In Iran, words speak as loudly as actions.

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Iran-China Getting Tighter
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In diplomacy, it all depends on how you spin it.

Iran is claiming that all the pressure the United States has been piling on China to support sanctions against them, has actually brought China and Iran closer together.
I know it sounds so incongruous.
But this time, Iran may be telling it like it is.

Iran just announced an international conference that they will host later in April titled "Nuclear Energy for All, Nuclear Weapons for No One."
This will be a public relations bonanza for Iran.
The Iranians are directly confronting the United States assertion that the purpose of the Iranian nuke program is for weapons.

Creating a conference about energy and rejecting weapons is sheer brilliance. Iran will attempt to convince leaders and countries around the world that all they are interested in is their unalienable right to develop nuclear energy - not nuclear weapons.
The conference will whittle away at international support for actions against Iran.

The Iranians have come up with a simple plan, or should I say, counter plan that will have a far reaching, long lasting powerful impact.

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Hamas Want Fatah Leader Dead
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas announced that it wants to put Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayad on trial as a traitor.

There has never been any love lost between Fayad and Hamas.
Hamas does not recognize Fayad as Palestinian Prime Minister.
Hamas believes that Fayad attained his position illegally after a "fair and free" election during which the plurality of Palestinians elected Hamas.

Hamas says: "Fayyad is a person without legitimacy, who has stolen control in the West Bank and whose hands are contaminated with the suffering of thousands of martyrs in the West Bank."

In several interviews last week Fayad said that he is certain that there will be a Palestinian state in the year 2011.
Hamas claims that in saying this, they have proof that Fayad no longer embraces the return of all Palestinians to all of Palestine.


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Liberal is Not Liberal in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Do not be misled by the titles "liberal" or "moderate" as they apply to the Middle East.

Many supposedly "liberal" countries in the Middle East are in fact extremely "conservative" and take a very narrow view of Western expressions of affection.

For example: A Dubai court of appeals has just affirmed the decision by a lower court to punish two British tourists with one month of imprisonment for giving one another a peck on the cheek in a restaurant.
The criminal complaint was made by a local woman who witnessed the dastardly deed.

Most "liberal" countries in the Arab Middle East are impatient not only with Western expressions of affection and public displays of sexual culture, but even with Western dress and its tendency toward bold colors.

What we in the West call acceptable and common place is called a violation of law and a disregard for tradition by "moderate" and even "liberal" Arab societies in the Middle East.

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Iran is Making a Move
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is making certain that the world knows its point of view on nuclear development.

No matter what anyone else says, no matter what pressure is brought upon them, Iran will continue developing their nuclear program. Actually the more resistance the West puts up, the stronger the Iranian resolve to build nuclear technology.

On Saturday Iran's President Ahmadinejad proclaimed that no external pressure will stop Iran from their stated mission.
He said: "Do not think that you can stop Iran's path of development. You can pressure us, publish statements and resolutions, but the Iranians are determined to continue."

Iran knows that the United States along with the rest of the West are planning to increase pressure.
These comments by Ahmadinejad are his first counter response to the inevitable future sanctions against his country.

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Russia & Hamas Are Playing a Game
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has stepped up its involvement in the Middle East peace process.
Russia is attempting to position itself as an even-handed a mediator that has influence with Hamas.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a phone conversation with Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas.
Lavrov made clear to Mashaal that Russia thinks that Hamas' increased rocket fire from Gaza into Israel is a big mistake.
Lavrov informed Mashaal that this change in the status quo is dangerous and that it could have a devastating impact on the calm that has been in place form the past year.

According to Russian sources, Mashaal said that he understands and will try to stop the rocket fire.
In truth, Hamas just wanted to get Russia off their back.
Mashaal has no intention of toning down the attacks.
Hamas wants to draw Israel into a retaliatory raid that results in the deaths of innocent Israeli civilians.

Russia is playing their own game, Hamas is playing their own game.
Their games are deadly.

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Russia & China Must Agree
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is not giving up.
Next week the US is expecting to conduct serious discussions with both Russia and China.

The topic under discussion will be stepped up sanctions against Iran.
It is not clear what power the US has over China and Russia, but the mere fact that they are willing to meet and talk is a very good sign.

In order to take sanctions against Iran to a new level, all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council must be in agreement. The United States may be taking the lead, but they will just be spinning wheels unless they can bring China and Russia on board. France and England are already on board.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, in an interview with The New York Times on Thursday, said that he was pleasantly surprised that China had agreed to entertain the idea and will actually be talking to the Americans about renewed sanctions.

The Russians are open to bribery and/or persuasion.
But without the Chinese, renewed sanctions against Iran have no chance at all.

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Iran Lobbies China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

New developments on the move to push through sanctions against Iran:
The United States says they have made headway with China to back sanctions.
AP is quoting sources high up in China confirming that they will back sanctions.

But Iran has other plans:
Iran has sent their chief nuclear negotiator to China.
Saeed Jalili will arrive in China today.
According to Iranian press reports, Jalili will be in China to help advance dialogue with the West.

Jalili wants to curtail sanctions.
Jalili is reaching out to China for help in stalling the sanctions.
Iran will guarantee China access to important natural resources.
Iran will promise China that all will be resolved thru face to face dialogue.

Of course, these are simply tactics.
And sanctions against Iran are not in China's best interest.
Soon enough, we will see where this all leads.
Right now, it's too soon to even hazard a guess.

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Pirates of the High Seas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The African Star, a ZIM lines freighter, was attacked by pirates.

ZIM is an Israeli company.

On board the freighter, in addition to cargo, were trained, armed, security personnel.

In response to the surge in piracy, many shipping companies have started hiring security teams and many of those teams were originally trained in Israel.

Many companies does not mean all companies, so the seas are still rich pirates.

With the situation on the high seas at a crisis level owners have started to take charge. In hiring experienced security teams the owners hope to scare off the pirates. When the pirates attempt to capture the vessel they are repelled by the small gun fire of the security team.

That is what happened on the African Star.

Pirates won't learn their lesson, but maybe other shipping, freight and cruise company owners will learn theirs.

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Haiti vs Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Figure this one out.

According to UN figures:

In Operation Cast Lead in Gaza there were about 1300 victims out of the 1.5 million people residing in Gaza.

In Haiti there were about 230,000 victims out of the 3 million residents.

When it came to receiving aid:

Gaza received $900 million from the United States and $200 million from the UN.

Haiti received $700 million from the US and DOD and $10 million from the UN.
The numbers don't seem to add up.
That's because this isn't about math or logic, it's about diplomacy.

Haiti needs more aid than Gaza, but Haiti is not a cause that pulls at the heartstrings the way the Palestinian cause does.

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Protests in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Did you ever notice that in totalitarian countries lots of people come out for protests?

You know why?
Because they are paid to come out and protest.

Some are paid with money, some are paid with favors like free university tuition. Others are paid with a promise - if they do not attend the protests, they will be arrested.

In Damascus, Syria recently tens of thousands of protestors came out to the streets to march against Israel and against settlements. The protest had a name. It was called the March of Anger Against Israel.

In Syria, as is the case in most dictatorships, nobody is ever permitted to protest against a domestic policy or a national policy.

In Syria the only protests are about Israel or the United States.
In Syria, they never protest about the level of their education, living conditions or working conditions.
In Syria, there are never any protests that are critical of the government.

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Muslims Seek Misunderstanding
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It is best said that Muslims seek misunderstanding.
Muslim leaders deliberately feed disinformation about Israel to their masses in order to promulgate stereotypes and stoke flames of hatred.

The Arab world is mistaken about building in Jerusalem, about synagogue rededication in Jerusalem and even about excavations in Jerusalem.

The Arab world thinks that Jews will not share Jerusalem or preserve holy Muslim sites.

The Arab world believes that Jews will do what they want to do - which is to destroy the holy sites of other religions.

Nothing is further from the truth.

The Palestinian Authority has asked the Arab League for $500 million to fight the Judaization of Jerusalem.
They want to unite Muslims around a common goal and truth has nothing to do with that goal.

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Bin Laden Theatens US if it Executes KSM
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Al Jazeera ran an audio tape of Osama bin Laden.
The reason for the tape was to threaten the United States.

Bin Laden said that if the US executes Khalid Sheik Mohammed, al Qaeda will execute all the Americans they can.
He asserted that al Qaeda will continue to kidnap and murder as many Americans as they can.

There has been no change in al Qaeda policy or in al Qaeda motivation.
That should be clear.
Al Qaeda is committed to murdering Americans as they can.

Terrorist trials and executions do not threaten al Qaeda.

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Language of the Mid East
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad was recently interviewed on Hezbollah TV.
He said that at this point there are only two options for the Syrians and Israelis - either peace or war.

Bashar added that the only language that Israel understands is the language of force.
Indeed, he is correct.
The Middle East, Israel included, understands strength and force.
In the Middle East, force is the most important variable in every argument.

Without strength and without force Israel would be destroyed.
Israel knows it and so does the rest of the region - it is the Israeli advantage.
No other country in the region will attack unless they are prepared for Israel's response.
Israel cannot afford to be vulnerable.

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Iran Arrest High Profile Leader
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The grandson of the Ayatollah Rafsanjani was arrested upon his arrival in Teheran Airport earlier this week.
He was returning to Teheran from London.

The Ayatollah Rafsanjani was the former president of Iran.
Rafsanjani has been a critical voice of the current regime.
His family has paid the price of Rafsanjani's vocal discontent. His son-in-law and daughter were detained as they left their home to attend a commemoration in Teheran marking the failed election this past summer.

Rafsanjani is the chairman of the Assembly of Experts. He is also the chairman of the Expediency Council. These are two of the most significant religious agencies in Iran. These committees confirm the Supreme Leader, and placed the Ayatollah Khamenei in his position.

Rafsanjani and his family are threats to the Supreme Leader and his regime.

In Iran, threats are carefully and closely scrutinized.

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Clinton And Russia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians and the United States has been talking about Iran.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just wrapped up a long visit to Russia. Clinton was trying to impress upon the Russians how important it is to either stop or at least slow down work on the nuclear plant they are building in Busher for the Iranians.

Clinton's thesis and the perspective of the United States is that the plant will destabilize the region and has the potential of forcing the region and maybe even the world into war.

Clinton failed.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister and Clinton's direct counterpart, holds the opposite view.

In their final joint press conference Lavrov said that the only way to exert some sense of control over Iran is to open up the nuclear plant.

He asserted that the open plant would permit international inspectors entry and the ability to observe the plant.

He said this is the only way to insure a safe Iran.
The United States was outmaneuvered - again.

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Rifts and Challenges
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Rift.
Challenge.
That is the language the US State Department is using in reference to the current boondoggle with Israel over building in Jerusalem.

For example:
There is a rift in the relationship.
Israel's settlement policy is a challenge.
Technically, the terminology is correct. But given the situation this choice of words hardly touches the heart of the matter.

Most diplomatic wars are chosen, not obligatory. One should never enter a diplomatic scuffle without knowing the outcome and without determining whether the effort is worth the price that will have to be, eventually and inevitably, paid.

This time around, the United States did not do their homework.
Even Ban Ki Moon, the head of the United Nations, made a statement this week saying that the Jerusalem issue is to be discussed in final status talks.

The United Nations knows how to play the diplomacy game.
Why opt for war when your intention is peace.

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Nigeria & Libya are in a Funk
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Nigeria just withdrew their ambassador from Libya.

Unless you follow these matters, you would think that Nigeria and Libya were allies and comrades. They are not.

This rift in the relationship between Nigeria and Libya is the result of a suggestion made by Libya's leader Colonel Muammar Qaddafi.
Qaddafi suggested that Nigeria should solve its current rioting problem which has already claimed several hundred Nigerian lives and divides the country along religious lines.
Qaddafi says just separate the country, dividing the Christian and Muslim sides, and the problem will be solved.

Nigeria went ballistic - literally.
Now Nigeria is calling for an investigation into Libya's potential sponsoring of revolutionaries.

It is possible that Qaddafi could be sponsoring divisions in Nigeria.
But it is more probable this is just another classic example of Qaddafi simply over-speaking and not self-editing.

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India and the US Need to Talk
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The government of India has asked the United States for permission to speak with David Headley.
Headley is the US citizen from Chicago who has pled guilty to charges of terrorism.

Headley was the main scout for the simultaneous terror attacks that rocked Mumbai and murder 166 people.
India would like to charge David Headley.
More importantly, India would like to know more about his links, his contacts and the infrastructure that planned and executed the attacks.

Until now the United States and India have co-operated on this issue. The United States has shared the information they have gleaned through interrogation with India.

But India has its own questions.
India understands things differently than does the US and India has much deeper intelligence than does the US.

The government of India deserves a chance to speak to Headley.
The more they learn, the more the United States will learn, too.

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Petraeus Makes A Big Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

General David Petraeus made an outrageous statement yesterday.
The gist of his analysis is that the relationship between the United States and Israel causes damage to US interests in the rest of the world.

How could the general have even made such a statement.
This statement in and of itself is a torpedoing of US interests.
Suggesting that the special relationship between the US and Israel is not special at all and is instead a liability is a perversion of the highest order.

Petraeus said that "anti-American sentiment" is a result of the unambiguous support the United States shows Israel.

Here is a news flash for you General Petreaus: Nothing the United States does will alter the way the United States is viewed by Afghanistan and the rest of the Muslim world.

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Mitchell Postpones Trip
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US State Department spokesman made an announcement Tuesday.

He said that Special Presidential Envoy George Mitchell will not be making his scheduled trip to the Middle East next week.
Instead, Mitchell will be meeting with the players as soon as possible.

The United States is trying to gain control of a situation that has gotten completely out of control.
There is a three way diplomatic crisis taking place.
The United States - Israel - the Palestinians, they are all on over drive and their responses to the crisis are all overkill.

When all the parties in a deal/crisis are out of control and when every response they give is an exaggerated response, it is very hard to get the situation back on track.

It will require significant time and real diplomacy before the United States can move Israel and the Palestinians close enough together to start the indirect talks as promised.

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Iran - Palestinian Games
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that they want to help facilitate a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
Palestinian unity is now a part of Iran's overall goal and philosophy.

Why has Iran has decided to take an interest in the plight of the Palestinians?
Because Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said that Iran is one of the reason for the conflict.
Iran support Hamas. Iran provides Hamas with money, weapons and training all of which is a public slap in the face of Fatah.

Abbas called them on it.
In order to save face internationally, Iran had to respond.
Iran chose to respond with a message of unity.

This is the classic Iranian move.
Iran needs to be viewed as pro-Islam. They cannot take one side over the other.
Yet, Iran clearly supports Hamas over Fatah. Why? Because Hamas more closely reflects Iran's understanding of Islam than does Fatah.

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Mubarak Out of Surgery
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak underwent gallbladder surgery in Germany on March 6th.
The hospital released a statement saying that the surgery went well and that Mubarak is recovering well.

Muabrak is 81 years old.
He has ruled Egypt with an iron hand for nearly 30 years. This is just one of several close calls the Egyptian president has had. No one can accurately predict the health of an octogenarian. And in Egypt, no one can predict where an assassin's bullet will land.

Speculation about the future of Egypt has taken on a new urgency.
How long can Mubarak hold on?
Will he appoint a successor who, symbolically, gets elected?
Will he liberalize Egypt as a final glorious gesture?

Time will tell.

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Tensions Arise All the Time
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton called Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu on the carpet the other day.

And Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador to Washington, was invited for a formal dress down.

It was to be expected.
It was the response of the United States to Israel's announcement that 1600 new apartments are to be built in a neighborhood outside Jerusalem, a neighborhood on the other side of the pre '67 border.

The announcement was just a matter of when.
When would the White House and the State Department call?
It was obvious what they would say.

This is by no means the first time, nor will it be the last time, that Israel and the United States are in conflict on the subject of settlement expansion in Jerusalem.

It was the timing of the announcement that was problematic - not the content.
It was timed to coincide with the visit of US Vice President Joe Biden to Israel.
It was timed to derail the resumption of indirect talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

It is about conflict within Israel, not about Israel's conflict with either the Palestinians or the United States.

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Convert to Islam Released
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In Mauritania, al Qaeda released a Spanish aid worker named Alicia Gamez.

Gamez was a kidnapped for 100 days and then let go.
According to al Qaeda websites she was released because "she voluntarily converted to Islam."

Something is very wrong with this picture.
Islam does not permit forced conversions.
All conversions must be 100% submission to Islam and Islamic teaching which requires freedom of choice, especially regarding the decision to accept the will of Allah as taught by his prophet Mohammed. If a person is forced to convert it is not of their free will and they cannot be a true Muslim.

Alicia Gamez was in captivity for 100 days. This situation can not possibly, objectively, be considered an exercise of free will.

Hundreds of historical examples in Islamic law address this exact issue.
It is baffling how little Muslim extremists know about Islam.

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Palestinians Say No to Talks
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors and reports have been spreading all over the Middle East for the past 48 hours.

The word is that the Palestinians will not join indirect talks with Israel under the present circumstances. The Palestinians are calling for US Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell to force Israel to stop all settlement activity.

The information made its way to the press via Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League. Moussa says that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was his source for the information.

The State Department spokesman says that they know nothing of this.
The Palestinians have not told the Americans about their cold feet.
The Palestinians are continuing the chorus they have been repeating for the past 15 months.

There is no way out of this dilemma unless the Palestinians give in.
The Israelis agreed to the indirect talks knowing that the Palestinians could never back down.
Now the Palestinians have a choice - they can appear weak or they can appear strong.
Weak would be join the Israelis for indirect talks, strong would be opposing the talks.

Odds are the Palestinian will have it both ways.
They will refuse to talk now and resume talks at a later date.

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Apartment Embarrassment
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced the construction of 1600 new apartments.

The announcement was a major embarrassment for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The announcement was made while US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel.

Netanyahu had told everyone, his cabinet, his advisers and even his press people ... no surprises ... no embarrassments.

Biden was forced to give Israel a tongue lashing. A perfectly uneventful and exclusively positive visit was turned into a tense moment and an international diplomatic incident.

Why? What motivated an announcement like that?
The decision was made by head of the Shas party and Minister of the Interior, Eli Ishai.

Ishai wanted to deliberately taunt the United States and their micro management of Israel.
Ishai used this announcement to say to the Israeli public that his party will not bend to the will of the United States.
Ishai was saying that the United States is not the most powerful force in the universe.

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Iraqi Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Sunday's election in Iraq was a water shed event.

This was the second ever free democratic election in Iraq. This year 62.4% of the people came out to vote, in the 2005 election, 76% voted. The results are still not clear and even after the results are made public it will take a few weeks for us to understand what is really happening.

The most important revelation to emerge from this election is that the Sunni population came out to vote. In 2005 the Sunnis were effectively removed from any chance of holding elected office because they had boycotted the election.

The delicate balance that has been forged between Sunnis and Shiites since 2005, what we call Iraq today, may yet be shattered. The Sunnis want to put serious distance between Iran and Iraq, they want to make certain that Shiite tones are not sounded in Iraq.

We don't yet know what will happen.
We do know that the big loser in this election is definitely al Qaeda.

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Israel Warns the PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

According to the Israeli press, Israeli leaders have issued an ultimatum to Palestinian leaders.

In private conversations, Israel has told Palestinian leaders that they must move and move seriously to prevent the Palestinian uprising.
The Israelis said that if tensions and incitement do not drop significantly Israel will start making arrests. This comes in response to a dramatic increase in public incitement against Israel - incitement that has been unofficially condoned by public officials.

A Palestinian rebellion is in the making.
Israel is trying to convince Palestinians leadership that a rebellion against Israel is not in their long term interests.
Israel will not permit the Palestinians to create another Intifada.

I think the Palestinians have gotten Israel's message - now they have to make a decision.
If there is another Intfada, thousands of Palestinian will die and any hope of Palestinian statehood will be pushed off again.
But an Intifada is good for local, political, popular support it will look as if Palestinian leadership is taking a stand against Israel.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a resumption of indirect negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, scheduled to be announced later today.

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New Talks PA & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday night US Presidential special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell landed in Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

This meeting sets the stage for the announcement of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. On Monday Joe Biden arrives in the region and everything is expected be in place for the vice president.

This is a classically well choreographed American event.
It will be pitched perfectly for history, for the cameras, for the world to watch.

The only problem is that the parties are not quite up to the task.
Israel and the Palestinians have been playing a game and neither has been honest about their stand on indirect talks.
The Israelis and the Palestinians are placating the United States.

We will learn what they each really want only after the talks begin.

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Syria Blames Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Under new leadership, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has begun to take nuclear development by Iran and Syria much more seriously than it had in the past.

Over the past several months Syria has been challenged by the IAEA on more that one occasion.
An IAEA report shows beyond the shadow of any doubt that Israel destroyed a nuclear facility in deep in Syria.
The Syrian ambassador to the IAEA, Bassam Sabbag, insists that it is not so.

Sabbag claims that the uranium readings that were detected were a set up by the Israelis.
Sabbag claims that the Israeli sprinkled uranium in the area after they bombed the agricultural facility.

Conspiracies and conspiracy theories abound in the Middle East.
The more far fetched they are, the more likely they are to spread with a vengeance

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Australians, Israelis and a Bicycle
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A team of Australian police investigators is now in Israel investigating the case of the Australian passports that were used during the assassination of Mahmoud Mabhouh.

This is not unusual.
What turns this bit of investigative work into news is that on Thursday, after leaving the Australian Embassy in Tel Aviv, the team hit a female bicyclist with their vehicle. They ran over the bike and kept on going.
They did not stop.

This is a serious violation of the law in any country. That police officials did not stop is scandalous. The woman, thankfully, was not badly injured. She is, however, demanding an apology and a new bicycle wheel.

In general, one of the rules of safe counter espionage in very risky environments is not to stop after minor accidents.
What appears to be a minor accident can in actuality be a trick, an attempt to kidnap the operative or to place a bug.
But this was downtown Tel Aviv.

An innocent, however unfortunate, encounter may now turn into a diplomatic incident. This time there is real evidence - as opposed to the assassination the Australian team is investigating which is filled with speculation.

Then again, this would be a Mossad-like tactic to discredit the Australians, wouldn't it.

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Iraqi VP Visits Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

One of the best ways of finding out the agenda of any country in the Middle East is by observing who is talking to whom face to face.

The vice president of Iraq, Tarik Hashemi, arrived in Damascus for a two day diplomatic visit. What makes the visit unusual is the fact that Iraq and Syria do not have diplomatic relations.

Iraq blamed Syria for the August bombings that devastated Iraq half a year ago. Iraq said that the Syrians permitted the terrorists to cross their border and then slip back over into Syria.

This meeting is an attempt at building bridges.
It will take much more that a meeting, but it seems that both sides are interested in improving diplomatic relations.

The big problem in all this is that Syria has a vested interest in sponsoring terror.
The big question is whether attacking America is more valuable to Syria than patching things up with Iraq.
Actions speak louder than words, we will have to watch this one carefully.

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Nasrallah the Calls Arab Leaders Wimps
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, made a passionate speech yesterday condemning every Arab country and every Arab leader for inaction - every country except Iran and Syria.

Only Iran and Syria have taken a stand on behalf of Hezbollah and helped Nasrallah's cause.

Nasrallah said, "The Muslim nation must assume its responsibility and not leave the resistance movements alone on the ground."

He said, "When Syria and Iran stand by us clearly they assume their responsibility and should be thanked for that. Assist the Palestinians as Iran does and this will resolve the problem; assume your responsibility."

Arab leadership will not take up Nasrallah's call for assistance and support.
Arab leaders act and do not act for a reason.
Arab leaders will never do anything that endangers their position.
Inaction is always preferred to action.

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US Gets Tough With Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is beginning to get serious with Syria.
The Syrian Ambassador to the US has been summoned to the State Department to meet with US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman

The Syrian Ambassador will be told - in no uncertain terms - that Syria must stop arming Hezbollah.

This change in tone and demands by the United States comes about as the result of a failed trip to Damascus by Under Secretary of State Frank Burns. When Burns asked Syrian President about arming Hezbollah, Assad said he has no idea what Burns was talking about.

Assad did not even deny it.
Assad said he has no idea.
A flat denial would have been a more serious and more respectful response. Saying he had no idea was a snub, suggesting that Burns was not entitled to either a real lie or the truth.

The message will be sent from the ambassador in DC to the president in Damascus.
But no change will take place on the ground in Syria or in Lebanon.
This is a shot across the bow - it is a warning to Syria.

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Oil at $80
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Crude oil closed at $79.66 in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Earlier in the day, it topped the $80 mark.

For the past week oil has been swinging and swinging high. On Friday it hit a benchmark.

There are many reasons why oil prices go up.
Suffice it to say, increased oil prices do not help either the consumer or the West. The people best helped by increased oil prices are enemies of the US. First and second on the list are Iran and Venezuela.

The US wants to apply sanctions on Iran and this surge in oil prices is exactly what they need to give them the extra cash to ride out any of the potential rough spots that might emerge over the next few months.

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Iran Syria Have Summit
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a day trip to Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was in Syria getting all his ducks in a row.

Assad and Ahmadinejad agreed on several issues.
At their joint press conference the leaders announced that the United States should pack up and get out of the Middle East.

The Iranian leader also met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shallah.
They all want to make certain that should there be another conflict with Israel, a united Islamic front will emerge.

They will fail.
There is a natural inclination for Muslim leaders to proclaim unity, but in reality, history shows us that in crisis, it is every Middle East leader for himself.
Should the time ever come, Iran will not lift a hand to protect either Hamas or Islamic Jihad.

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Persian or Arabian Gulf
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has issued a warning.

They told every country that flies to Iran that from now on the water surrounding the area must be referred to as the "Persian Gulf" and not by the more commonly used name the "Arabian Gulf."

They said that every map and every piece of paper, even inside airplanes and used solely for traveler entertainment purposes, must reflect the change.

Countries that do not comply with this demand will lose their landing rights in Iran.

The conflict of "Persian Gulf" versus "Arabian Gulf" is the conflict that caused the cancellation of the Islamic games earlier this year.

Last year National Geographic referred to the water improperly and the magazine, their maps and their atlases were all banished from Iran. After a long discussion and much begging National Geographic is now back in Iran.

Iran is dead serious, they are not playing around.

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Egypt Gets Their Bones Back
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, after way too long, the bones of an Egyptian nobleman have been returned to their rightful owner.

In 2008 Miami Airport officials confiscated a sarcophagus flying from Madrid to Spain. The box was from the 21st Egyptian Dynasty dating from 975-1010 BCE. It had been out on display and when it returned to the US, the importer did not have proper papers.

Egypt sued to get it returned and they won.

Until the 1950's and the rise of the modern Middle East, natural treasures and local historical prizes were looted by archeologists, grave robbers and traders. And then they were often sold to big name museums and serious collectors.

Many Middle Eastern states still have feelings of anger toward the colonial powers of the West. Many national treasures of the Middle East are still on display in museums in Western capitals around the world. These treasures were often stolen right out of dig sites leaving gaping holes in situ and then brought to London and Paris.

In this case, a historic wrong has been righted.

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Mossad is Not Just About Assassination
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Curiosity about the inner workings of the Mossad has ratcheted up ever since the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud Mabhouh.

The Mossad is not an assassination machine, the Mossad is an information gathering organization.
The Mossad is very compartmentalized. Units that are involved in dangerous field operations are the most separate and most compartmentalized of all.

For example: the Kidon Unit is part of the Ceasaria Unit.
The Ceasaria Unit is actually a Mossad within the Mossad. We do not know half of the activities that the Kidon Unit is involved in, but assassinations are not the foundation of the unit.

The Caesaria Unit is like a special projects organization.
Most Caesaria Unit activities involve field intelligence, not just gathering intel but also interaction and engagement. The work is highly pressured - not much cloak and dagger but a lot of acting and deception.

How is information gathered?
Posing as a journalist or lobbyist or traveling businessperson and hanging out in hotel bars, hot cafes and hot tubs is one very useful tool for gathering information and opening up channels of communication.

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Syria Does Not Want Inspections
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Youkiya Amano of Japan is the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The IAEA is the group charged with inspecting nuclear facilities around the world to make certain that countries work within international nuclear guidelines.

Amano just failed at trying to convince Syria to permit the IAEA unfettered inspection access. Inspecting Syrian facilities is especially important because, according to a newly publicized IAEA report, the facility Israel attacked in September 2007 had traces of nuclear remains

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said absolutely no to the IAEA. "We are committed to the non-proliferation agreement between the agency and Syria and we allow inspectors to come according to this agreement." In other words, Syria agrees to pre-scheduled inspections, but not to unannounced, spot inspections.

Amano wants Syria to join the new protocols which permit any and all inspections.
Syria is not interested and Moallem will not budge on this issue. "We will not allow anything beyond the agreement because Syria does not have a military nuclear program. Syria is not obliged to open its other sites to inspectors."

This situation is not good.
Syria and the IAEA are gearing for a showdown.

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Nukes Forbidden in Islam
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, also known as the Supreme Leader of Iran, made an announcement.

He said that the West does not understand what Iran is doing.
He said that Iran is not enriching uranium for weapons.
He said that the West does not even realize that for Iran, "it is forbidden to use that kind of weapon."

This is not the first time the Grand Ayatollah has made a pronouncement saying that Islamic law prohibits nuclear weapons.
The problem is that Islamic law also prohibits the murder of innocent people.

Everyone views their own world through their own special spectrum.
Iran seems to view nuclear weapons differently than we in the West view them.
Iran is masterful at clouding the issue and subverting blame - masterful.

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Arabs Unite Behind Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, added his voice and the voice of the entire Arab League to the voices of Iran and Syria and the rest of the chorus of countries saying they will not sit still if Israel attacks Lebanon.

It sounds good, but in reality, it is simply a gesture - political, rhetoric, machismo.

The Arab League has no army and no power to control the members of the League.
The Iranians are clear about their point of view, they have a serious stake in Southern Lebanon but their purpose in building up Southern Lebanon has always been to create a proxy so that they do not have to get personally involved.

The Syrians view Lebanon as their sovereign territory. They sew seeds of disorder to weaken the central Lebanese government. They want disorder in Lebanon. And they do it all from a distance.

These are real attempts to create unity - even though these statements are only meant for public consumption.

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Iran Says Israel Will Attack in the Summer
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not to be underestimated.
He has keen insight into the Middle East but his intelligence on Israel is open to question.

In a recent statement Ahmadinejad declared:
"According to information we have they (Israel) are seeking to start a war next spring or summer, although their decision is not final yet."

Ahmadinejad did not mention more specifics.
He did not say against whom Israel would go to war, but he did have very specific reasons for making this information public.

Ahmadinejad wants regional leaders and local citizens to be on edge.
He knows that the threat of war will be a galvanizing force in the region, that it will unite all Arab countries against Israel.

Ahmadinejad is probably talking about Israel going to war against Hezbollah, Syria or Iran, but his intelligence is totally off base.
Ahmadinejad will do whatever he can to propel his own agenda forward with other countries in the region.

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Iran Has the Upper Hand
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has been in Israel since Sunday.

Mullen is making the rounds of everyone who is anyone in Israel. He has met with the defense minister, the prime minister, and of course, Gabi Ashkenazi, Israeli Chief of Staff.

They are talking about several ideas - but there is only one topic that is important to both sides, Iran.
The United States wants to make certain that Israel will not act without getting their OK. Mullen made it very clear that the US will do everything to defend Israel.
Mullen also made it clear that but Israel cannot act alone.

The problem with the entire US/Israel exchange is that the United States and Israel are looking at the Iranian problem from very different perspectives.
The United States is thinking in terms of a defensive stand which does not allow for a preemptive strike. For Israel it is all about the offensive.

Without a preemptive strike Iran has a free hand.
More importantly, Iran has the upper hand.

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Lebanon Chases 4 Israeli Planes
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is claiming that they chased four Israeli jets out of their airspace yesterday by shooting anti aircraft weapons at them.
Israel has not commented on either the flights or the shooting.

These flyovers have irked Lebanon for years.
The rhetoric and the frustration are reaching new levels.

Israel has a long history of flying over southern Lebanon.
They use the air space for maneuvers and for reconnaissance.
Israel needs to constantly monitor what happens in Southern Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon is where Hezbollah stores arms and trains for attacks against Israel.

Tensions over Lebanon will continue to climb until the rhetoric calms down.

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Israel Did Not Harvest Organs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Baroness Jenny Tonge, a member of the British House of Lords in England from the Liberal Party, has been forced to step down as Health Spokesperson for her party.

This past week Tonge was quoted in the Jewish Chronicle urging Israeli authorities to investigate the charge that while in Haiti, Israeli doctors harvested organs at their mobile surgical hospital.

Jenny Tonge should be ashamed.
When a Baroness raises this kind of myth publicly she is acting as the spokesperson for anti-Semites, nor for her party.
I commend Liberal Party leadership for removing Tonge from her position.

There is no truth to the canard.
It is an outright lie.
It is a modern-day blood libel.

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Piracy Is Still Alive
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Somali pirates released a ship and its hostages after the government of Taiwan paid the ransom.
The men were released on Thursday, the ship was seized ten months ago.

The ship was a tuna fishing boat with a crew of thirty aboard.
In the course of captivity, three crew members died.

The story of Somali pirates has died down - but there are still seven ships and about 160 crew members still held captive.

The International Task Force has had some small impact. Last week, for example, a team of Danish commandos stormed and freed a ship.

But they are still far from freeing ships and captives and ridding the world of piracy.

We need a serious response to the problem of piracy.

Piracy has transported the shipping industry back to the 18th century where lawless thieves on the open seas bring Western civilizations to their knees.

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Iran Clamping Down
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

To give you a sense of how tense the situation is in Iran, just look at who was detained yesterday when she arrived in Teheran for a celebration rally marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

The granddaughter of the Ayatollah Khomeini, that's who.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was the founder of the Revolution and his granddaughter was detained along with her husband who also happens to be the brother of the former president of Iran, the Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami.

These are people beyond reproach and with impeccable Iranian pedigrees.
But they are also considered dangerous by today's regime because any action or comments from them could sway many undecided people in Iran away from the current leadership and into the waiting arms of the reformers.

No one is safe in Iran.
Silence speaks as loudly as do actions and involvement.
In Iran there is no such thing as standing safely on the sidelines.

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Hillary's Great New Plan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The State Department released Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's schedule yesterday and on the agenda is the Middle East.

The secretary of state will be spending Saturday through Tuesday in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
This is Clinton's first trip to Qatar as the top US diplomat and she will be talking about two major topics.
The first topic she will address is Iran.
The second topic is jump starting the Israel/Palestinian dialogue.

Clinton will be addressing the US - Islamic World Forum and she will deal with these two topics in both public and behind closed doors.

The United States needs to apply pressure on Iran.
The Forum is the perfect place to recruit regional leaders to join forces with the West and help isolate Iran.
This trip by the secretary of state could turn out to be a very effective diplomatic maneuver on the part of the United States.

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Al Qaeda in Yemen Calls to Kill Jews & Christians
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

An al Qaeda website broadcast an audio recording of Said a Shaheri, the deputy head of al Qaeda in Yemen.
What makes this broadcast newsworthy is the fact that Said a Shaheri was supposed to have been one of 30 leaders killed last month in a Yemeni Air Force raid that strafed their camp.

In the broadcast Shaheri spoke of his true objective and tried to persuade recruits to join his mission.
He said:
"The Christians, the Jews, and the treacherous apostate rulers have pounced on you ... you have no other way out from this plight other than to wage jihad,"

He continued:
"We advise you, our people in the Peninsula, to prepare and carry your weapons and to defend your religion and yourselves and to join your mujahideen brothers."

Said a Shaheri is one of those notorious prisoners released from US custody in Guantanimo Bay, Cuba who has re-emerged as a significant al Qaeda leader.
Upon his return to Yemen Shaheri assumed his previous role and he continues to evade the West.

It is becoming more and more apparent that, best intentions aside, we are the ones who continue to facilitate the growth and strengthening of al Qaeda.

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Abdullah Asks Obama for Help
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday CNN broadcast an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan. The Monarch was eloquent as he described the ticking time bomb that is the Middle East.

King Abdullah minced no words.
He said point blank that President Obama needs to dedicate time to change the situation on the ground between Palestinian and Israelis.

The King exaggerated slightly when he said that an opportunity for peace would be lost if not accomplished in the next thirty days. But he was correct in describing correctly the disappointment that is felt throughout the Arab and Muslim world that President Obama has not made the Middle East a top priority.

The King asserted that the possibility for a two-state solution is slipping away. If that opportunity slips away, so will the possibility for normalizing relations between Palestinians and Israelis.

The King implored President Obama to take action now.

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Iran Has a Plan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 7, 2010

Ive Been Thinking:

It is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Iran has planned a ten day celebration.

The excitement had been limited to the launching of rockets and the unveiling of satellites.
Now, according to Iranian radio, the Iranians are now adding two new missiles to their arsenal.
The first is an anti-helicopter missile.
The second is an anti-armor, anti-tank weapon.

There is an expression: work for peace and prepare for war.
We should assume that Iran is preparing for war and not for peace.
Presenting the new weapons is one of the ways Iran engages in a game of intimidation. The Iranians are demonstrating that they have capabilities and weaponry that will exact a toll on any attacking forces.

Iran has a larger plan.
They are allowing us one glimpse at a time.

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New Lead on Mabouh Assassination
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Irish Herald reported yesterday that the assassins who killed Hamas operative Mohamed Mabouh in his hotel room in Dubai were traveling on Irish passports.
The report could not be confirmed from through any other source.

On more than one occasion the Dubai chief of police has said that the killers entered and left on European Union passports.

Most people are still pointing their fingers at Israel.
The use of Irish passports does not give us any clues as to the identity of the assassins. Irish passports issued several years ago are still valid even though they do not contain holograms and RFID chips the way newer passports do. Old passports work perfectly in the hands of any operatives or other unsavory characters like drug traffickers and spies.

RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification chips which use a specific frequency to make certain that they are not counterfeit.
Many border patrols have no idea what an RFID is, so the old Irish passport is still in use.

We may have new information, but it is not yet useful information.
There are many more pieces to this puzzle.

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Russia is Courting Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Russian press is reporting that Moscow will be hosting a very special guest next week.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal will be the honored guest of the Kremlin.

Russia is making a play for influence in the Middle East.
It is not enough for the Russians to simply make statements - they need to make promises and they need to show that they can be a guiding force. That means that they must demonstrate support in the form of humanitarian assistance.

Russia thinks they know how to play the game.
They want to out - maneuver the United States in the region and they are hoping to buy their influence with Hamas. What the Russians do not realize is that Hamas is not for sale. They will take the money and run.

There is no counter balance to Hamas.
Nothing can and nothing will control Hamas - not Iran and not Russia.
Hamas is accountable only to Hamas.
Nothing else matters.

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Taliban is Still a Threat
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Dennis Blair, the administration's point man on terror, testified before the Senate Committee on Security yesterday.

He said that the Taliban are growing in strength.
He said the Taliban are stronger than they were in 2006.
This is an understatement.

The Taliban are growing in numbers, in weapons and in influence.
Everyone is upset, but almost no one is doing anything to stop it.

Yesterday, the Saudis called upon the Taliban to exile Osama bin Laden.
They used Muslim logic and tried to prevail on the Taliban to reject bin Laden.
Obviously, their plan did not work.

At least the Saudis had an idea and ran with it, even if it was senseless.

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Iran Wants to Execute More
By Micah Halpern

February 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has executed two men for their activities in the aftermath of the June 12 elections.
The men were publicly hanged.
The men were mid level organizers for the opposition.

Several things should be clear:
There is no democracy in Iran.
Those who believe they can bring democracy to Iran will pay with their lives and souls. The purpose of public hangings in Iran is to instill fear in those who might question the power of the system.

The point was made very clearly in Friday's sermon which was broadcast in Teheran.

The conservative cleric Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati delivering the sermon asked for more executions. He wondered why there were not more immediately after the election. He described the need to use a strong hand against the protesters. He said that the protestors may not have understood the proper message because Iranian leadership was not tough enough with them. He said: "If you show weakness now the future will be worse."

Nothing has changed in Iran.

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Iran's Budget Relies on Oil
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran appears to be playing it conservative regarding the price of oil for the next year.

Oil has been hovering around $70 per barrel for the past four months.

Iran submitted a budget based on oil prices being $60 for next year.

Last year Iran's projected budget was $37.50.

80% of Iranian foreign trade comes from oil exports. Everything depends on the price of oil staying above the estimate or the economy will collapse. Education, agriculture and industry will all dry up and fall apart.

This is a projected budget. It does not consider sanctions. It does not consider markets that might dry up.

Time will tell.

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Ahmadinejad Says They control the Mideast
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comes out with an amazingly astute observation. On Saturday the Iranian president addressed a conference marking the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution.

The official news agency FARS reported his speech. He made it very clear that whoever controls the Middle East controls the world. Ahmadineajd said that while there are numerous countries that have technology, they have no say in the Middle East.

So he asked: "Now the question is who has the last say in the Middle East? Well, of course, the answer is clear to everyone." Obviously, Ahmadinejad was asserting that Iran has the final say. This point of view is enormously illustrative of Iranian motivation and foreign policy and helps us understand why Iran acts the way it does.

Iran believes that Iran is in control of the Middle East and all other countries should recognize them as leader. This is the cause of much inner conflict in the Middle East. It is a significant reason for the resentment Iran feels towards the United States and towards Western involvement in the region.

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Israel May Have Killed Hamas Leader in Dubai
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The announcement of the assassination of Hamas strongman Mohamed Mabouh was no shock. Mabouh was killed in his hotel room in Dubai on January 19th, a full 10 days before the announcement was made public.

Hamas officials maintain that they kept the news under wraps in order to help them capture the assassins. The fact is that the killers were long gone by the time the death was reported to the police.
Mabouh entered Dubai under an alias. The Dubai officials say had they know he was there, they would have provided him with security.

Dubai has traditionally been a haven and protected place for wanted characters. The official word is that Mabouh was killed the day after his arrival. The cause of death is harder to work out. One source says he was tortured and electrocuted, that they found electrical burns on his head. Another source says that he was poisoned. A third source says that he was suffocated by a pillow.

Everyone is blaming Israel. The Arabic press across the world and the Western press in Europe that reads the Arabic press have all pointed the finger at Israel. They may be right. Mabouh was responsible for the smuggling of weapons into Gaza from Iran. He was responsible for capturing, torturing and murdering two Israeli soldier in the late 1980's. He was a major player in Hamas military planning wing.

Dubai thinks they have a lead. If it was done properly by Israel ... I would doubt they have a lead. But all signs do point to Jerusalem.

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Senate Helps Crackdown on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US Senate has passed an important bill concerning Iran's gasoline imports. The Senate bill echoes a House bill.

The new Senate law gives President Obama the ability to increase sanctions against Iran. Following the House bill the Senate bill also stipulates that any agency or country that aids Iran by providing them with gasoline will also be subject to serious sanctions and will lose any privileges from the United States.

Iran has the third largest reserves of oil in the world. They are also the fifth largest producer of oil. But the Iranians do not refine oil very well and over 40% of their gasoline is imported.
Stopping the import of gas to Iran or squeezing the suppliers could result in serious and impressive pressure being brought on Iran.

The question remains as to whether squeezing Iran on oil will have any impact on Iranian foreign policy in general and most specifically, on Iranian nuclear policy.

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Egypt is Pressuring Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a huge scuttlebutt going on in the Middle East.
The conflict is over the leadership style of Mahmoud Abbas. Egypt, Israel and the United States are pressuring the Palestinian leader to get back to the negotiating table.

Abbas is pushing back. He has asked the Kings of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to intervene.

An Arabic language paper published in London, with very reliable contacts in Egypt and a proven track record, has reported that Egypt made it clear that unless Abbas gets back to the negotiation table Egypt will totally alienate him. That would be tantamount to breaking down Palestinians leadership.

This is a play for power - Egypt versus Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Jordan may still be able to apply pressure on Egypt.
A bigger game is in the works involving Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the Palestinians.

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Ahmadinejad is President
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Mehdi Kharoubi, one of the challengers in Iran's June 12 election has been making news.

Kharoubi, who came in 4th in the elections, has been vehemently critical of the elections. He insists that the results were rigged and that the election was a total farce.

This week Kharoubi was quoted by the official Iranian news service FARS saying that he accepts Ahmadinejad as president despite the fact that the election was fixed. He accepts Ahmadinejad because the Supreme Leader appointed him. AFP followed up and interviewed Kharoubi's son who confirmed the original reports.

"I am still of the same belief that the election was unhealthy and massively rigged. But since the (supreme) leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) endorsed (Ahmadinejad's victory), I believe that he is the head of the government, meaning he is the president."

This is very important insight into Iranian society - even the most revolutionary personalities conform to the wishes of the Supreme Leader.

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Terrorist Returns to Jamaica
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Sheik Abdullah el Faisal recently arrived in his native Jamaica.
He arrived on a private jet.
The Sheik is a radical Muslim preacher.

He was found guilty and served time in England for plotting to murder Jews, Americans, Hindus and Christians.

He was also convicted of using words to stir up racial hatred.

Sheik Abdullah el Faisal used to be called Trevor William Forest.

He was the mentor to both Richard Reid, the shoe bomber and to Zacharias Mousaoui, the extra 9-11 hijacker.

On January 22, Abdullah was deported from Kenya. The private jet he traveled on was courtesy of the Kenyan government.

Abdullah el Faisal will not be staying in Jamaica very long. There is no significant Muslim population to preach to in Jamaica.

So now we must ask: where is the next soft target for Sheik Abdullah el Faisal and his preachings.

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Al Qaeada Women Try To Enter US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

According to reports, women attached to al Qaeda have been trying to enter the US.

The word is that the women have Western passports.

The word is that at least two of the women are affiliated with the same al Qaeda group that the underwear bomber was connected to.

The word is that the women are thought to be suicide terrorists.

This idea of using women with Western passports as suicide bombers is typical of al Qaeda. It is that type of terror attack that al Qaeda perpetrated in Europe.

Despite the serious weaknesses in United States security measures, everyone entering the country is scrutinized and it is still much harder to enter the US than it is to enter European countries.

We need to stay alert.

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Obama Made a Grave Error
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama has an interview in this weeks Time magazine.

He admits that he overestimated his ability to bring the Palestinians and the Israelis to a mutual agreement.

Overestimated is an understatement.
Before Obama was in power there was dialogue and discussion.
Now, literally since the very first days of Obama's presidency, there has been no dialogue, no discussion and no independent meetings.

In other words, the good intentions of the President coupled with his poor briefings and complete misunderstanding of the situation has caused the sides to move farther apart then they were before his meddling.

Exactly one year ago the new president insisted on a total settlement freeze as a precondition to talks between Israelis and Palestinians. 365 days later there has been no progress.

Middle East analysts are now singing a round of "I told you so."
Maybe next time he'll listen to us.

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Russia & US in Conflict On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Reality and vision are conflicting over Iran.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday that the United States will not stop, that the United States will not permit Iran to get nuclear weapons.

Just a few minutes earlier the Russian Cabinet was briefed by the head of Rosatom, the private nuclear company building the Iranian nuclear power plant in Busher, and they were told that Busher would open later this year, probably in March. He said there would be no more delays, that they had already been paid their one billion dollars in full.

There is no way the Russians would delay this, they have had the contract since 1995.
Russia can't possibly favor sanctions or any other diplomatic arm twisting if they are actually building the nuclear plant.
Russia might say that they want to stop the Iranians, but they are actively helping them.

There is a serious disconnect between United States and Russian words and actions.

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Iran Outsmarting the West
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A strange announcement was issued yesterday by Gill Tudor the spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to the announcement, the West and Iran still have a proposal to discuss.

The IAEA said: "The proposal made by the IAEA in October 2009, which was supported by France, Russia and the United States, continues to be on the table."

The Iranians will take this to be serious weakness on the part of the West.
The October proposal was countered by Iran, rejecting the Western advance.
Not pulling the proposal or counter-countering the proposal was a serious mistake by the West.

Iran seems to understand exactly what the West is doing - well before the West does.
Iran anticipates the moves of the West simply because they are very good at this game.
Iran is playing for serious stakes and we, the West, seem to be playing for fun.
Winners are normally the pros, not the amateurs.

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When it Rains it Pours in the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Ministry of Religion in Hamas-controlled Gaza called for a prayer to ask Allah, in the name of Mohammed, to send down rain.
The Rabbis in Israel have been calling for rain since the first week of December.

This week, everyone's prayers were answered.

The rain came in floods.
It is filling the aquifers, the lakes, the rivers and it is watering the crops.
But nothing is ever simple in the Middle East.

In the Middle East there is a rainy season and there is an arid season. When there is not enough rain the ground turns very hard and when the rain finally does arrive the ground is not soft enough to absorb it. If the ground is not properly prepped during the dry season, disaster will strike during the rainy season. The result is run off and flash flooding, powerful currents of water strong enough to carry away homes and tractor trailers and the people inside them.

Now people are dying and drowning and many are homeless.
Damage to land and infrastructure is significant.

The higher authority heard the prayers.
Local and municipal authorities did not.

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No Sanctions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday, in New York, the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, also known as the Power of 6, met to discuss Iran.

The group made a decision to work on two tracks:
# 1: to move ahead on the political/diplomatic front
# 2: to intensify sanctions

On Sunday, the Iranians held a press conference to declare that the 5 plus Germany meeting was a failure. They proved their point by claiming that the decisions taken by the group were unreasonable.

The Power of 6 released their own statement saying that they spent most of the meeting trying to intensify the move toward sanctions.

It's all about spin
The Iranians are spinning and the Power of 6 is spinning.
But in the end, spin makes no difference at all.

The only way to bring sanctions against Iran is to have China call for those sanctions.
And China is not budging.

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Hamas & Hezbollah Meet
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In Lebanon on Saturday Hezbollah chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah met with Hamas head Khaled Mashal.

The meeting was reported on Al Manar, Hezbollah TV. The report described the meeting as focusing on the need for Hezbollah and Hamas to unite and work together.
According to the report and a formal statement released after the meeting, Hezbollah and Hamas jointly criticized the Arab world for showing weakness against the threats and arrogance of Israel and America.

The meeting signals a union between two groups that dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the reduction of US influence in the world.

Hezbollah and Hamas are partners in arms.
The most highly developed weapons in their arsenal are rockets and terror attacks.

The West must be as united as Hamas ans Hezbollah are - it is the only way we will defeat them.

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China is Pulling Out
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

China is pulling back on their commitment to join an international movement to keep check on Iran's nuclear development.

Remember, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have been meeting to deal with Iran attempting to diplomatically craft a fair and safe solution to Iran's nuclear aspirations.

China just announced that they will be attending the next meeting of the group, BUT, they will be sending only an extremely low level diplomat.

China is deliberately sabotaging United States and Western attempts to force Iran to give up their nukes - or at least to create some resolution.

The US and the other Western nations will pressure China to send a more senior person, but in truth, they are powerless on this issue.

There is no way that China can be convinced to join with the rest of the world's leaders.
No way.

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Al Qaeda Among the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It is the classic disconnect.

The Palestinians insist that there is no al Qaeda presence among them.
For the past two years Israel has heard just the opposite.

Ansar al Sunna, an al Qaeda group in Gaza, just recently claimed responsibility for a Qassam rocket shot from Gaza toward Israel.
Because of the nature of these poorly designed rockets, it landed short of Israel and landed instead in Palestinian controlled Gaza.

The lesson here is clear.
Al Qaeda is operating in the Palestinian area.
They are well organized, they are well armed and most importantly, they are well funded.
They are gaining supporters and adherents by leaching from the Palestinian movements Hamas and Fatah.

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Jones to the Mid East
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The White House just announced that National Security Director James Jones will be making a trip to the Middle East.

Jones, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell will be making this trip together.

The pressure is on.

General Jones is no stranger to the region. He was military attache at the US embassy in Tel Aviv and served as military point man for the peace process for several years. Jones' military insight was regularly referred to and even sought after for years. Now he is the man with the office right next to the president. After Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod James Jones is the most influential person in the White House.

Jones has been enormously critical of Israel in the past.

He has also been characterized as having a very realistic approach to life.

Obama is sending a messenger to the region by sending Jones o this trip.
This is not a fact finding tour or a diplomatic trip.
Obama is laying down the line.
This is a roll Jones feels very comfortable filling.

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Hezbollah Sells Drugs
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The German journal Der Spiegel reported that Hezbollah is funding terror by selling drugs in Europe.

It's a case of: "I told you so."
For years Israel has been telling European and United States leaders and counter terror analysts that terrorists were selling drugs in order to fund terror activities and maintain their organizations throughout the world.

Germany arrested two people in Frankfurt with money that was coated with cocaine.
The drug dealers were sending money back to Lebanon and from there it was sent directly to Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah.

We are talking about millions of dollars a year.
The money is going directly into Hezbollah operations from Lebanon to South America.

Similar schemes are in being run in the United States.
Terror organizations are making tens of millions of dollars each year smuggling cigarettes from states with lower taxes in the south to higher tax areas in the north.

Terrorists will always find a way.

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US Might Sanction Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

I watched George Mitchell on Charlie Rose the other night.

I thought I heard Mitchell talk about sanctions against Israel in order to move them out of their deadlock with the Palestinians, I assumed I was dreaming.

I looked up the transcript - I wasn't dreaming.

Here is the exact quote:
"The reality is that, yes, of course the United States has both carrots and sticks, you have to be very careful about how and when you use them and apply [inaudible]--...Under American law, the United States can withhold support on loan guarantees to Israel."

Later on in the transcript Mitchell talks about how George W. Bush held back loans until Israeli policy came into line with US expectations.

Mitchell is not simply a former judge and a former senator.
Mitchell is the current Special Envoy of the President of the United States to the Middle East.

Withholding loan guarantees is tantamount to instituting sanctions.

I do not see the United States instituting a policy of sanctions against Israel at a time when Israel's intel on terror and Israel's military are the only real weight the United States has as leverage against Iran.

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Chief Said Don't Attack Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The obvious is often stated as if it has some deep profound impact.

Case in point: Yesterday Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that an attack on Iran may lead to unintended consequences that may destabilize the region.

His comments were clear and left little room for interpretation: ... "I think that the outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome ... on the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome."

The US has made a very important strategic move.
The most public soldier in the United States was chosen to announce just how dangerous it would be for Israel to attack Iran.

There is no doubt that Israeli is developing plans to strike Iran.
There is no doubt that the United States wants to discourage Israel from attacking.
There is also no doubt that the United States also wants to signal Iran that Israel is readying for attack.

The United States is telling Iran to come back to the negotiating table.
The clock is ticking.

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Iran Plans Maneuvers
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Naval division, Admiral Morteza Saffari, is quoted on a Iranian news website saying that Iran will be conducting maneuvers in the Straits of Harmuz. This is no small feat.

The Straits of Harmuz is a narrow pass of water through which about one third of the world's oil passes.
Iran claims to control the Straits.
International law considers the area international waters.

Iran excels at running little blue rubber boats that swarm around military ships and capture them. This offensive technique has proven to be an effective weapon against Western ships and Western military in the Straits.

The Iranians are prepared for a crackdown and increased sanctions.
The Iranians are signaling that they are in control and that they will not be intimidated.
The Iranians are doing the intimidating.
The Iranians are flexing their muscles.

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Cuba is Angry
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Cuba is furious.

Cuba is calling the new US policy to pat down and search both the hand luggage and the shipped luggage of all people flying to the US from 14 countries - including Cuba, anti-terrorism paranoia.

Four of the countries on the list of 14 are sponsors of terror.
The other 10 countries are places from which many terrorists have originated - including countries friendly to the United States, like Saudi Arabia.

The Cubans may call it paranoia, but the new US policy is anything but paranoid.

This is one of the best policies to date to combat terror and to secure our planes.
This marks the first time that the US has moved towards behavior profiling, the first time that the US is looking at background and not just checking every seventh person regardless of the threat.

Better late than never.

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The US is Pressuring the PA
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that the US administration is exerting serious pressure on Palestinian leadership, especially on Mahmoud Abbas.
The US is pressuring the Palestinians to return to the negotiating table with Israel.

For several months I have sensed that the US administration was applying pressure to the Palestinians and that they were slowly, incrementally, increasing the pressure.

The United States views this pressure as part of a larger, regional move.
The United States is rewarding Egypt with an entire slew of new weapons.
In return, with the expectation of reaping even more benefits, the Egyptians have been doing the bidding of the United States in the region.

Abbas is in Egypt, he arrived on Saturday and is staying for several days of meetings.
The Egyptians are pushing Abbas to go back to the table, Abbas is resisting.

It's a Middle East version of the game push me - pull me, orchestrated by the United States.

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Taliban Kill CIA Agents
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the Associated Press reported that the Taliban of Pakistan took responsibility for the suicide bomber attack that killed seven CIA operatives.

The Taliban claim that the 8th CIA death was the suicide bomber.
They say he was someone whom they had turned into a double agent/assassin.

The Taliban are probably telling the truth.
Running locals as CIA agents is a double edged sword.

On one side they are your eyes and ears on the outside.

On the other side they have the ability to get close to you and your highest level operatives in the field.

What is essential here is that the Pakistani Taliban also have links to al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda is the nerve center of many Islamic terror networks.

We must never forget that.

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Jews in Gaza for Shabbat
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 2, 2010

I've been Thinking:

If it were a short story, you would call it fiction.
Four ultra-Orthodox Jews from New York and Canada are spending Shabbat in Gaza - as guests of Hamas.

The four, long bearded men, all dressed in traditional black garb, crossed into Gaza via the Egyptian controlled border. From there they were escorted by their hosts to Gaza City where they have been provided with a proper ultra-Orthodox Shabbat setting, including meals and prayers. In Gaza they will be meeting the leaders of Hamas and will be entertained as honored guests.

The men are members of Neturei Karta, a group that rejects Israel's statehood. Rabbi Dovid Weiss is one of the members of this chosen group. Upon arrival in Gaza Rabbi Weiss said: "It's crucial that the people of Gaza understand the terrible tragedy here is not in the name of Judaism."

This is the same group of people that went to Teheran and participated in the
anti - Holocaust conference sponsored by Ahmadinejad.
No one really knows how many people are members of Neturei Karta ... more than 100 but less than 10,000.
Neturei Karta is not a group of crazies, but it is a very dangerous group.

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Happy New Year from Iran to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

It's a new year.
Greetings are sent around the world - from friend to friend, from business contact to business contact, and even from Soccer Federation to Soccer Federation.

Israel's Soccer Federation received a special greeting this year.
It came from the Iranians.
Not sure if it was a joke or for real, Israel sent back a New Year greeting to the Iranians.

A correspondent for Israel Army Radio called Mohammad Ali Ardebili, the information director of the Iranian Soccer Federation, and speaking in Persian, asked if it was a mistake or deliberate.
Mohammad Ali Ardebili said: "It is a greeting sent to every country in the world."
Then he asked: "Are you talking from Israel? I can't speak with you. It's a mistake, it's a mistake."
Then he hung up.

Happy New Year.

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End Around in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

So much happening in Iran it is almost impossible to track the goings-on.

The internal crisis, the popular rallies that have turned into riots running rampage throughout the country are only part of the story.
Iranians have been killed, arrested and many - including members of the opposition, have been placed under house arrest preventing them for attending the rallies.

All the while the theocratic dictatorship has continued to not only build nuclear facilities which they flaunt in the face of the world but now, as reported by the AP late last night, they are smuggling in "yellow cake", nuclear materials from problematic nations - nations willing to do business with Iran.

Intelligence suggests that the Iranians are actively smuggling all kinds of nuclear materials to aid in the production of a serious facility.

The Iranian objective is simple - do an end around the international community and achieve nuclear independence without international supervision.

And that last part is the truly scary part.

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It Took 3 Days For a Comment
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Each day we learn more about the failed terror attack of December 25th.

President Obama broke the silence and serenity of his Hawaiian vacation yesterday to assure Americans that his administration was keeping us safe. He assured us that all those responsible for the deed would be caught and brought to justice.

This is my first entry on the topic of the attempted terror attack.
It comes in response to President Obama's first comment on the matter.

Vacation or no vacation, it took the president of the United States too long to weigh in on what was intended to be a deadly terrorist stack aimed at Americans.

The failed attack led the news on all networks and was the focal point on newspapers and websites for days.
Everyone was asking the obvious questions - were we safe, were the people who are supposed to keep us safe doing everything they can and is that enough?

The President should have spoken out on Christmas day.
I do not blame him, for this blunder, I blame his handlers.
This was a colossal political mistake.

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Gaza 1 Year Later
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In Gaza today a siren sounded and for a moment everyone stood silent and still, there were memorial services and gatherings.
Today marked the one year anniversary of Operation Cast Lead, the 22 day operation during which Israel entered Gaza.

Ismail Haniyah, head of Hamas in Gaza, released a statement to the press praising the bravery of the people of Gaza and extolling them for repelling the Israelis. He spoke of the significant and damaging blows they delivered to the Israeli military thwarting Israel's goals.

The press statement read:
"The Strip won because of its durability and the Zionist enemy's failure to implement the objectives it set for itself during the war. The resistance continued in its path and forced the enemy to retreat without giving up on even one of its principles and its right to bear arms and defend the Palestinian people."

The successes and failures of Operation Cast Lead are still open to interpretation. But to assume that Hamas emerged victorious is stretching all fact and credulity ... unless, of course, you view the fact that Gaza is still standing as a victory.

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Shalit Deal Falls Thru
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Putting it simply, it looks like Hamas has rejected the deal that would release Gilad Shalit.
In actuality, the situation is a bit more complicated.

The proposal has been going back and forth and back and forth again and again.
Most recently, Israel sent back a proposal back to Hamas further refining the deal. In Israel's new version, seven Palestinians prisoners including Marwan Barghouti and Ahmed Sadaat would not be freed.

Hamas rejected Israel's counter proposal based on two issues. The seven prisoners who would not be freed and the large number of prisoners that Israel wanted exiled as part of the deal. A Hamas source is quoted as saying that it "was not a prisoner release deal but an exile deal."

This was expected.
Over the past three years deals about Shalit have been modified, modified again and then fallen apart - always because the modifications have been acceptable to the other side.

Israel tried very hard to accept the deal as it was presented this time, but the release of these particular seven people was too difficult for Israeli leaders and the Israeli public to accept.

These seven prisoners in question are young, hardcore, terrorist leaders.

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Politics In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Some serious political ploys have been at play in Israel recently.

This week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu offered Tzipi Livni, head of the opposition, a partnership - Netanyahu asked Livni to join forces by joining the government.
If Livni and her Kadima party were to join his government, Netanyahu would be able to broaden and stabilize his government and discard his radical right flank.

The problem with this plan for Livni is that there is an internal conflict within Kadima right now.
Livni is fighting to protect her position as party leader - number two in the party, Shaul Mofaz, is making a move to take over.

Netanyahu has another agenda.
By bringing Kadima into his coalition, Netanyahu can split Kadima into two, destroying their ability to garner votes in the next election.
Let us not forget that in the last national election Kadima won more votes than Netanyahu's Likud party.

It's about maintaining power or destroying power, it's what makes politics go 'round.

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Iran in Space
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that they are preparing to launch a new satellite into outer space.
They are asserting that they have a new generation of satellites with far more sophisticated technology.

The Iranian Defense Minister made the announcement yesterday. He told the world that Iran will be launching their newest satellite an the end of February beginning of March 2010, just two to three months from now.

The significance of this announcement is enormous for several reasons.
The most important reason is that satellites are used for intelligence gathering.
Another is that the mechanism that launches a satellite is exactly the same technology that is needed to send a non-conventional weapon careening toward Israel.

Iran is unquestionably a nation in space.
From space, the Iranians can watch and attack any country they choose.
And that threat is even greater than the Iraian nuclear threat.

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Demjanjuk Trial is Becoming a Joke
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The John Demjanjuk trial restarted in Germany yesterday.
This will probably be the last Nazi war trial for Germany, it may even be the last Nazi war trial in the history of the world.

I was expecting a very serious and well prepared defense.
I am disappointed.

On the first day of the trial Demjanjuk's defense attorney, Ulrich Busch, spouted that kapos were worse than Nazis. Kapos were prisoners who were forced to be guards in the camps. Busch actually asked: "Is it not true that the Jewish police were worse than the Nazis?"

The prosecution and the judge demanded a source for this ridiculous claim.
Busch's response was: "If you Google it, you'll find it."

The behavior of Demjanjuk's defense attorney should really not be a surprise.
During the trial opening, he suggested that Demjanjuk was a Holocaust survivor.
Hollywood could not have come up with an opening like that.

Whatever else happens in this case, I am now certain that Busch will push the envelope. He will challenge every fundamental historical and moral boundary.
The victims - and history, deserve better.

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They Found The Sign
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday famous sign at the entrance to Auschwitz, the sign that read "Arbeit Macht Frei" was stolen.
Three days later, on Monday morning, it was found and five people were arrested.

The sign was found in northern Poland, the other end of the country from Auschwitz. The fifteen foot sign had been cut into three pieces - each piece was one word long: Arbeit, Macht and Frei. "Work Will Set You Free."

Poland had declared a national emergency and dedicated almost everything they had to finding the sign.
The world was shocked.

This sign marking the entrance to the worst of all the Nazi murder factories had become a symbol.
It was a symbol of evil.
It was a symbol of how the world stood still as millions of innocent Jews were marched to their deaths.

Last week the leaders of Poland joined by leaders from around the world stood up and demanded the sign be found.

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Iran Grabs in Iraqi Oils Field
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The situation is tense between Iraq and Iran.

On Friday, Iranian forces crossed over the Iraqi border and took control of an oil facility and pumping station.

The eleven Iranian troops hoisted an Iranian flag at the oil field and stationed themselves in a defensive position awaiting an Iraqi response.

This field has been disputed.

Until now it was on the Iraqi side of the border.
Iran seems to want to change that status quo.
This is an important trial balloon for Iran.
Crossing a border and raising a flag is a very significant statement.

The objective is two-fold:

# 1: to test how the United States will respond to this aggressive act
# 2: to test how local Iraqi leadership will respond to this incursion

What happens in the next few days will be an important predictor of Iran's future actions.

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Petraeus Says Iranian Air-force is Weak
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

General David Petraeus, the general in charge of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, delivered a tremendous blow to Iran yesterday while in Bahrain.

Petraeus was at a conference speaking about the issues of the region.
He concluded that the United Arab Emirates air-force could destroy the Iranian air-force.
Petraeus said that "[t]he Emirati Air Force itself could take out the entire Iranian Air Force, I believe, given that it's got ... somewhere around 70 Block 60 F-16 fighters, which are better than the US F-16 fighters."

This is a damning blow to Iran's ego and image in the region.
The UAE, a little collection of sheikdoms, has a better armed and more sophisticated air-force than the great Persian fighters.
The Iranians sputter and bluster about their great air-force, but now it seems that it is all just hype.

The essential germ of Petraeus' comments is that the Iranian air-force is dangerous and will certainly hit some of their targets - but they are beatable, especially against a better trained, better equipped air-force.
Petraeus was not pointing out the greatness of the UAE, he was using them as a source for comparison with Israel.

The general made his point.

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A Nuclear Model for the Middle East
By Micah Halpern

December 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The United States and the United Arab Emirates signed an important agreement yesterday.

The agreement will enable GE- Hitachi Energy to provide nuclear energy to the UAE.

The agreement, aka, The 123 Agreement, allows GE to create an atomic energy plant for the purpose of making electricity.

The agreement is totally transparent and there is no chance that the plant will be converted into a nuclear power plant to be used for nuclear weapons.

The US is delighted and is hoping that their agreement will serve as the model for the region enabling nuclear energy for electricity in a responsible and safe environment with transparency and supervision.

The obvious parallel is Iran.

Iran does not believe in transparency.

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China says No to the US
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Trying to influence Iranian policy on nuclear development is nearly impossible.

One measure would be trying to introduce more sanctions. But that requires international support, especially from China and China is proving to be very difficult and is not joining the team.

The United States is using Israel as leverage. It was just reported that on his trip to China President Obama told Chinese President Hu Jianto that Israel was chomping at the bit to attack Iran and that the United States could not hold them back indefinitely.

The US thought that China had received their message and would agree that sanctions and international pressure were the best ways to keep Israel from attacking, but the US was wrong.

China has declined a US-Saudi deal that would isolate Iran much more significantly than any other international action.
The deal would substitute Saudi oil for Iranian oil and Saudi Arabia would supply China with all the oil it gets from Iran at significantly lower costs.

China does not want to save the money or to isolate Iran.
China wants to maximize its own leverage over Iran.
That is not good.

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Hamas Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A Hamas delegation, headed by the Khaled Mashaal the undisputed leader of Hamas, is being hosted in Iran.

Hamas is in Iran to get unconditional support from the Iranians for their cause. They are getting that and much more.

The message of support has come through loud and clear in press reports and press conferences.

According to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "the government and the people of Iran will always stand by the Palestinian resistance and the Palestinian people."

He went even further: "today Palestine is symbol of the global front of freedom-seekers and militants."

Hamas will continue their fight until there is no more Israel.
Iran will support that fight by supporting Hamas until the Zionist entity is totally annihilated.

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Iranian Protests Touch a Cord
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Things are changing in Iran in unexpected ways.

This past week anti-government student protesters burned pictures of their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.
This is unheard of in Iran.
Never have protesters, or anyone at all, burnt pictures of the Supreme Leader.

In the Iranian way of understanding theology the Supreme Leader is answerable to Allah and exclusively to Allah - not to any other force or power and certainly not to student protesters. Burning pictures of the Supreme Leader is also a serious violation of Iranian law.

In response to these protests the powerful religious leadership of Iran held two days of rallies in support of the Grand Ayatollah. The supporters numbered in the tens of thousands.

This new student protest touched a very sensitive cord.

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US Finally Responds to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the US has finally started to challenge Iran's free reign in Latin America. For one full year now Iran has been cultivating and investing in Latin America, courting and developing diplomatic relationships.

At last, yesterday, at a State Department briefing on Latin American relations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lambasted Latin American leaders for allowing themselves to be courted by Iran.
The Secretary of State said: "We can only say that is a really bad idea for the countries involved."
Clinton put forth a very compelling argument.
She said: "This is the major supporter, promoter and exporter of terrorism in the world today." "If people want to flirt with Iran, they should take a look at what the consequences might well be for them. And we hope that they will think twice."
Unfortunately, Latin American countries think otherwise.
Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador have concluded that the US has little to no influence over them or even in the region.
The power house players in Latin America that Iran has targeted for improved relations are happy with their new diplomatic amigos.

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Hanukah's Real Meaning
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Tonight, across the world, Jews will light the first Hanukah candle. When we think of Hanukah, we most often focus on the crucible of oil and the miracle. Not to diminish the miracle of light, that is only a small part of the story.

Hanukah was a battle for religious freedom against the religious intolerance of the Syrian Greeks.

The war waged by the Macabees was truly fought with swords and arrows, but it was more than a military operation, it was a war of culture and media. It was a conflict between a small religiously observant enclave and pagan masses. This clash of culture was without a doubt one of the most dramatic in Jewish history.

It was a conflict of tradition versus modern society that split families and pit family members against each other. What tipped the scale for the Macabees were the laws that were passed forbidding all Jewish observance and the absolute rejection by the Syrian Greeks of any type of religious Jewish life.

To the Syrian Greeks it was all a game, they were convinced that they defeated the few Jews because they were more modern. In the end it was the Syrian Greek culture and reign that fell. It fell because the culture and spirit of the Macabees was not simply encased in a building the Greeks desecrated but in behaviors and teachings handed down from generation to generation.

Some things cannot be taken away, not even by edict, intimidation or terror.
The Syrian Greeks learned that lesson the hard way.
Happy Holiday.

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Iran's Defense Minister Visits Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Defense Minister Ahmed Vahidi was in Syria, while there, he held several press conferences.

Iran is keeping thee rhetoric at high pitch.
In response to one set of questions about Iran's ability to fend off an Israeli air strike Vahidi gave some very insightful responses.

He said that if attacked by Israel "The Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces are fully prepared."
According to Syrian press reports he continued and said that If attacked by Israel, Iran would immediately respond and attack Israel's atomic sights.
He said that they would strike the "dirty weapons and other unconventional nuclear centers."
He said that "The Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces are fully prepared"

Iran has spent the past few months analyzing the various moves Israel might pursue to stop them.
Iran has begun to investigate its own possible responses to Israel's potential responses.

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Bin Laden - Only a Symbol
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Osama bin Laden.
Capture him or kill him - that is the question.

People are frustrated.
So many years later and the United States has still not found bin Laden.
Now, as the new Afghan policy takes hold, people are wondering if he will ever be found.

Yesterday General McChrystal went on the record again saying that we cannot defeat al Qaeda if we don't find bin Laden.
I disagree.
Bin Laden is no longer essential to al Qaeda. Capturing him or killing him will be a huge moral victory for the US and an enormous morale booster, but it will not defeat al Qaeda.
Bin Laden created an organization, a network, that reproduces on its own and that can and will flourish on its own.

Osama bin Laden is only a symbol - an important symbol, but just a symbol.

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Problems with Shalit Exchange
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There are some serious obstacles to be over come in the Gilad Shalit negotiations. Some of the information that is bouncing around is totally without merit, some seems very plausible.

One bit of info was gleaned form court papers presented to the Israeli Supreme Court. In the Government's response to a challenge concerning the prisoner exchange the court listed a definitive number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails slated for release as part of the deal. That number is 950.

Israel still has some serious issues to resolve regarding the prisoners:

For example: 125 prisoners originally from Gaza want to make certain that once they are released and deported they are not deported back to Gaza.

For example: there are prisoners who lived in Israel prior to their arrests and were imprisoned before the Oslo Accords were signed and so technically, they should not be part of the deal at all.

Of those 20 are Israeli Arabs, 1 is from the Golan Heights and 44 are from East Jerusalem.

Israel does not want these released prisoners/terrorists wandering around Israel freely and planning and perpetrating more terror attacks.

Not to be forgotten or minimized is the release of Marwan Barghouti, the biggest of all the big wig prisoners slated for release in this deal.

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New Rocket Lobbed From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An S5K rocket was launched from Gaza and landed in Kibbutz Alumim yesterday.

This is the first time an S5K has been known to be in Gaza and the first time one has been shot into Israel.
This S5K rocket has a much larger explosive charge than the Qassam, but it is also much less accurate.

The S5K is a Russian made rocket and was originally designed to be launched from an airplane. Recently it has been used against the United States and other Western forces by terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan who shoot the S5K from the ground in order to hit targets on the ground.

The terrifying new reality is that despite concerted efforts by Israel and Egypt this new Russian rocket has made its way to Gaza .
We now have confirmation that Hamas has been successful in smuggling weapons into Gaza.

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Iran-Swiss Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is sending a message directly to Switzerland.
Iran is displeased over the recently passed Swiss referendum outlawing minarets.

The Iranian foreign Minster has gone public with his phone conversation with the Swiss foreign minister. He was quoted in IRNA, the Iranian official news agency, saying that the Swiss vote was "against the prestige of a country which claims to be an advocate of democracy and human rights."

The chief Iranian diplomat said last week's referendum would "damage Switzerland's image as a pioneer of respecting human rights among Muslims' public opinion." He said: "Values such as tolerance, dialogue and respecting others' religions should never be put to referendum."

The entire Muslim world is up in arms about the vote, but only the Iranians have made their statements public. This is the beginning of a serious tension between Islam and the West.

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Real US Policy in the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

For those skeptical of US foreign policy in the Middle East, here is a diplomatic maneuver that should put things in perspective.

The Quartet is the driving force behind the Middle East peace process.
It is composed of Russia, the US, the EU and the UN.
The United States approached the other Quartet members and proposed that a statement of support be made concerning Israel's decision to halt settlement.
All agreed, but the drafts were left to each party to develop.

The original proposal came from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The person charged with getting everyone on board was David Hale, deputy to the President's Special Envoy, George Mitchell. Hale went to the parties with his own statement, but could not forge an agreement.

The problem is with two points that the US insists upon and that Russia will not sign off on.
# 1: that Israel is a Jewish State
# 2: that the final borders will be determined by the facts on the ground

The Russians will not budge.
Neither will the United States.

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Vatican and Moscow Create Pact
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Vatican and Russian are making peace.
For centuries there has been bad blood between the Vatican and the Russians.

Since 1990 relations between the two parties was so troubled that they had no ambassadorial exchange.

Now President Medvedev of Russia visited Rome and successfully hammered out a solution that will lift the diplomatic status to the level of ambassadors.

Under Communism, established religion was illegal.

Today there is serious competition for religious followers.

The Russian Orthodox Church has argued that Roman Catholics were poaching adherents and were proselytizing.

This is a battle over more than souls, it is a battle for money, too.

The Catholic Church has a lot of capital to invest in building, not only in chasing new believers.

Putin and Medvedev are looking towards the future.

Relations with the Vatican today will be brokered into a political tool for Russia to utilize at a later date in a power play.

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Iraqi Elections
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the elections in Iraq, scheduled for January 18, 2010, have been postponed.

Iraq is undergoing a serious election law crisis.
The United States is stunned.
The US did not expect a postponement, even though the Iraqi vice president who vetoed the new election law announced that he would be vetoing the election.

The election law dispute is all about who gets to vote.

Iraqi vice president Tariq al Hashemi is a Sunni and the Sunnis want to make certain that foreign or absentee ballots can be cast. There are a significant number of Sunni Iraqis living abroad and if they are given the vote Sunni representation will be clearly reflected.

The Presidential Council must unanimously approve the new law before it can be passed.

The Presidential Council consists of 2 vice presidents, one is Shiite, the other, Hashemi, is Sunni and the president of Iraq, Nuri el Maliki, who is a Kurd.

Iraq is at a stand still.

So is US policy which cannot move ahead until it is clear that the situation in Iraq is stable.

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Iran's New Threat to the West
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali, made a bold and categorical statement on Tuesday.
He said if the West "keeps on insisting on determining our nuclear policy, we will determine theirs."
Larijani is no stranger to this discussion, until a short while ago, he served as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator.

This comment requires careful analysis.
Larijani has no real power, but he is a senior adviser to both the President and the Supreme Leader.
Larijani is saying that Iran will entangle the West in a web.
Western nations will now spend a lot of time and energy analyzing every move Iran makes trying to make sense of this unveiled threat.
As it is the West has almost no idea what Iran does and why they do it.

This threat is probably very real.
It is a very effective Iranian tool against the West.

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Iran is Turning Up the Heat
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just doesn't let up.

Just yesterday the Iranians announced that they are allocating $20 million to a new investigative office tasked with investigating human rights violations - US and British human rights violations.

There's more.

Also yesterday the Iranians announced that they are investing in 10 new uranium enrichment facilities scheduled to be built in the next two months.

Iran is taunting the West.

The Iranians want to show that they are in charge. They are taking advantage of the last few days of the tenure of IAEA director Al Baradei to make their point.
Iran considers world leaders and the UN powerless to exert pressure over them, Iran believes that no one can force them to change either their practice or their policy.

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Dubai Meltdown
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Dubai financial crisis illustrates an interesting contrast between Palestinian and Israeli financial worlds.

Israel is primarily unaffected by the meltdown, the Arab boycott made certain of that.
Many Israelis wanted to get involved with Dubai, there is even an unofficial trade office under the auspices of the Israeli Foreign Ministry in Dubai. But Dubai made it difficult - so despite the financial allure Israelis could not go it alone in Dubai. There were only a few exceptions who managed to work it all out and so, Israel will fell almost no repercussions from the crisis.

Palestinians were heavily involved in Dubai, most importantly, about 100,000 Palestinians worked in Dubai.

Most of those Palestinians worked as laborers in construction which has ground to a halt. Others were engineers involved in building. The next largest group of Palestinian workers was high tech computer developers, another field which has been decimated in the financial meltdown. The West Bank was heavily dependant on Dubai in another way, they depended on Palestinian workers in Dubai sending money back home to help support families and that has now disappeared.

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The Exchange Plan According to Arab Press
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has been very tight lipped about a potential deal will Hamas that would exchange kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit for Palestinian prisoners serving time in Israeli prisons.
The Arabic press has been much more open with information.

Much of the information from the Arabic press is not reliable. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate each piece of information and determine what is real and useful and what is fabricated and wishful.

If and when there is an exchange it will involve the release of 1150 prisoners.
It seems that there will be a three stage exchange.
The process will begin when Shalit is transferred to Egypt where he will be visited by his parents and medical professionals. At that point Israel will release 450 Palestinian prisoners.
After Shalit is returned to Israel the remaining prisoners will be released in two stages.

According to the Arab press reports Marwan Barghouti, head of the Tanzim, and Ahmed Sadat, the person responsible for the assassination Israeli Minister Ze'evi in his hotel room in Jerusalem, are on the list.

Two days ago the report was that the exchange was imminent.
Yesterday the report was that Hamas was slowing things down until after the Muslim holiday Id al Adha which concludes on Monday.

The situation is still very much up in the air.

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The Barghouti Variable
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Arabic press is filled with stories about how Marwan Barghouti will be getting out of Israeli prison as part of an agreement with Hamas that will free kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Barghouti was convicted of murdering 5 people in terror attacks.
He was responsible for taking the lives of many, many othersin his position as head of the Tanzim.

The story was leaked to the Arabic press by Paletinians.
According to their reports the deal will take place next week after Monday - the Muslim holiday of Id al Adha.

If Barghouti gets out several things will happen:
On the upside:
There will be a huge groundswell of support for Barghouti as the leader of Fatah.
New energy will be injected into Palestinian leadership.
On the downside:
Barghouti embraces attacks against Israel and as leader he will encourage increased terror against Israel.
Barghouti wants a unity agreement with Hamas which will also increase terror.

Barghouti's major compromise is accepting Israel within the '67 borders.
He will compromise on nothing less.

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Barghouti Gives an Interview
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Marwan Barghouti, the terrorist cum Palestinian leader now serving time in an Israeli prison, is expected to be released in a prison exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas.

Barghouti gave an interview to an Italian news agency yesterday and declared that kidnapping Israeli soldiers is an important tool in getting Israel to take you seriously.
He also announced that as soon as a unity agreement between Hamas and Fatah was in place he would declare his candidacy for president of the Palestinian Authority.

Barghouti is a very shrewd and capable leader. However, despite the fears of many Israelis and the hopes of many Palestinians it is not clear that Barghouti will actually be on the exchange list.

What is clear is that Barghouti is still a major player in the Palestinian world.
It is also clear that Barghouti is by far the most popular Palestinian leader - even while in prison.
And it is clear that Marwan Barghouti has never stopped advocating terror as a tool to force Israel's hand.

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Egypt Steps Up on the Border
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt just reported that a truck containing 1 ton of explosive and bomb making material was discovered on their border with Gaza.

The driver and a passenger in the truck fled when they saw the army.
The police confiscated the explosives.

It all took place near Rafah on the Egyptian side of the border. Rafah is a split city - part in Gaza and part in Egypt. An active and very lucrative smuggling business moves things from one side of Rafah to the other.

No commodities are more in demand and more fungible than explosives and weapons.
Capturing this explosive material was a huge victory for the good guys.
Kudos to Egypt, they are doing a splendid job.

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Double Message From Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

SNS is the Syrian News Service.
SNS is an official mouthpiece of Syrian dictator cum President Bashar Assad.

On Sunday Assad made it clear that the only way peace negotiations with Israel will begin is for Israel to agree to one crucial precondition - the entire Golan Heights must be returned to Syrian.

Assad called it "unacceptable" not to expect that all land will be returned to Syria from the outset.
Assad said "This is where talks begin from. The result of the talks is peace; if you want peace then the result will be peace."

Most interesting is the contrast between this announcement and last week's announcement in Paris. Last week Assad said that he was ready to begin peace talks with Israel anytime, anywhere without preconditions.

No one in Syria will ever ask Assad about the contradiction.
Our only hope is that diplomats will seriously challenge the Syrian president.
Before the process can proceed, Assad needs to clarify his position on preconditions and peace.

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Iran's War Games
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran began five days of war games today.

The purpose of these maneuvers is to show the world that Iranians can and will protect and defend their nuclear sites.
Iran is also sending a message to Israel hoping to prevent a preemptive strike.

Influential Iranian religious leader Motaba Zalnur told Iranian TV that: "If the enemy should want to test its bad luck in Iran, before the dust from its missiles settles in this country, Iran's ballistic missiles would land in the heart of Tel Aviv."

Iran is worried.
The Russians have not yet delivered their promised S-330 anti-aircraft batteries. If the S-300's do not arrive Iran's defense will be severely reduced.

These games will try to show Iran's strength - but like with all war games, they may also show Iran's limitations.

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Iran Proves the Rule for the US
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The quote defining insanity as "repeating the same thing over and over expecting a different result" has been attributed to Kipling, Einstein and Ben Franklin.

Western foreign policy toward Iran is, I think, the best modern day way to prove the truth of that definition.
The Iranians have not fulfilled their obligations.
The permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are now considering ratcheting up restrictions and various sanctions on Iran.

From the outset Iran knew that they were just buying time while the West, under the leadership of the United States, was just postponing actions against Iran.
11 months later and Iran is closer and closer to their goal of achieving the status of a nuclear technological nation.

The West was not strictly insane - the West was deluded.
Western nations believed their own rhetoric, not what history had shown.
Delusions can be a type of insanity.
These delusions are dangerous, they have endangered the world.

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Internet War in the PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The internet is the wave of the future, that's not new - but it is also a litmus test for freedom of communication and freedom of education.

Those who fear the internet fear liberty.
Those who try to control the internet fear information.
The internet is an essential tool for spreading knowledge and information.
It teaches entire societies.

So how is the internet fairing in Palestinian areas?
In Gaza and the West Bank only 15% of people have access to the internet, 30% percent have computers.
By comparison, 20% of Egypt and 60% of Jordan have internet access.

Fatah has its own web handle called PS.
PS stands for Palestine.
Hamas has its own address.
PS.GOV which is shorthand for Palestinian government.

Hamas is trying hard to censor and suppress information on the internet.
They are filtering all items connected to any religion other than Islam.
They are censoring anything to do with sex and politics - anything other than their own Islamic style of government.

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Hamas Wants to Kidnap Israelis
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is offering $1.4 million to anyone who kidnaps an Israeli soldier.

The message came in an email blast sent out by a "Charity" called the Waad.
The Waad called on Arabs living in Israel to kidnap Israeli soldiers, any Israeli soldiers.

The Waad group is affiliated with Hamas.
They are a ruling group in Gaza.
The director is Hamas' Minister of Interior, Fati Hamad.

One of the greatest tools in the Hamas arsenal is the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
Hamas knows that the life of a single young soldier is worth at least one hundred, perhaps even upwards of a thousand, imprisoned terrorists.

This kidnap appeal fits perfectly into the Waad's mission statement.
Their stated mission is to support and aid Palestinians in Israeli prisons.

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Saudi Mufti Condemns Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Leading Saudi cleric Grand Mufti Abdul Aziz al-Alsheikh gave an important interview to the Saudi press.
The interview ran in the daily newspaper al-Watan.

In the interview the cleric had a long list of reasons to lay blame with Iran including the support of terrorists fighting against Saudi Arabia on the border with Yemen. He called it "collaboration of sin and aggression."

The Grand Mufti said, "We are right and they are wrong. They clearly must be fought. Saudi Arabia is the one defending itself and standing up against depraved aggression. We did not invade their land and no one infiltrated into it."

There is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Tensions continue to rise.
Iran's nuclear aspirations are just one of the many points of conflict.

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Tell the Truth, Mr. Clinton
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Former President Bill Clinton is on the lecture circuit.

Clinton is very popular and very expensive, he can be very entertaining.
Audiences are enthralled by him, they hear him speak and believe that they are privy to insight from the past and shown glimpses of the future.

Clinton most recently spoke at the Saban Center in Israel.
Haim Saban, founder of the Center, is the man who created transformers.

At the Saban Center Clinton declared that Iran is not the problem, nuclear development is the problem.
He said it with a serious, straight face.
Well thank you, Mr. Clinton, but the real problem is Iran's nuclear development.

The kind of syllogism that Clinton is creating is an insult to the region.
Saudis and Egyptians know the distinction here.
Israel's nuclear capability doesn't worry them - the region is worried only by Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Earn your honorarium, Mr. Clinton.
Tell the truth.

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Iran Sets Up Anti Blog Police
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday Iran announced that they were setting up an anti-internet squad.
They are targeting "liars ... spreading bad information."

That is code for bloggers.
Iran wants to shut down cyber communication.
Accomplishing their task will be a gargantuan task, nearly impossible to achieve.

The reality is that Iran's objective in setting up this police division has less to do with catching people than frightening people so that they do not use the internet and do not blog.

Hardcore activist internet users are not going to stop.
But the masses will be wary, they will be scared into thinking that the police will come knocking at their doors.

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Obama Dissed Bibi
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The cone of silence that had been imposed on last week's meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has finally been lifted.

Information has finally been leaked out.
It seems that this entire episode was about the White house teaching Israel a lesson.

The White confirmed the meeting so late that Netanyahu was already on the plane on his way to DC before the nod was given.
The White House did not care for the fact that the meeting was scheduled according to Netanyahu's timetable.
No photos were permitted and no press conference was given.
The interviews that Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak had scheduled had to be cancelled.

The most telling of all the details, the one that shows how the White House carefully choreographed this meeting in order to take Netanyahu down a notch is in the way the leaders arrived at the meeting.
Israel's PM and DM were brought to the White House in a nice black van - not by way of the presidential motorcade that has become de rigeur for these meetings.
Junior staff is usually relegated to the vans.

Before the meeting it was reported in the Israeli press that Netanyahu could exert pressure on Obama.
The White House disagreed.
The entire affair was an insult to Israel.

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Ceatlebrate Arafat 5 Years Later
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It has been 5 years since Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died.

In commemoration, thousands of Palestinians gathered in Ramallah at the Mukatah, the spot that was Arafat's nerve center.
Arafat ruled with an iron fist, he controlled and dispensed funds as if it was his personal cash because, you see, it really was.
Arafat kept it all for himself.

The fifth anniversary of Arafat's death coincides with the decision by the current Palestinian president, Arafat's successor Mahmoud Abbas, not to run for re-election in January.
This decision by Abbas will probably destroy the Fatah party, the movement that Arafat created.

What irony.

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Iran Says The US Must Choose
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave a very interesting speech in Turkey.

Ahmadinejad said that he wants to be the friend of the United States, but ...
It's a big "but."
But ... the United States has to make a choice - be friends with Iran or be friends with Israel.
The US must make the choice.

Ahmadinejad said that Iran will gladly extend a hand to the United States, but not if the US continues to have an extra special relationship with Israel. Of course he never called Israel by name.

Iran's neighbors are very upset with the statement.
Not because they are defending the special relationship between Israel and the United States, but ...
But ... because they do not want a special relationship between Iran and the United States.

How will the United States respond?
That is the key question now.

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PA May Declare a State
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority is in crisis.
If Hamas wins the January election, Fatah will effectively self-implode.

The PA is floating a trial balloon.
The PA is asking the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State according to the pre 1967 borders.
The PA is calling a US bluff. If the US vetoes the resolution, the Palestinian Authority PR campaign will proclaim that the US is not in favor of a two-state solution.

The reality is that the PA will not declare a state because they have not yet received the endorsement of the United States.
The Palestinians will convince themselves that they have leverage ... and the US may be swayed by the Palestinian threat.

If the Palestinians bolt and move and to announce their state without US sponsorship it will be because their ultimate objective is to maintain power by challenging US authority.

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Ahmadinejad Is Joking
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday morning I read a transcript of a TV interview with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

It was like reading a sitcom skit.

Ahmadinejad said that the West was not afraid that Iran might be attaining nuclear weapons.

He said Iranian nuclear weapons were not the issue at all for Western nations.

He said that the issue that frightens the West is that Iran is becoming energy independent.

WOW.

Iranian hierarchy sometimes disseminates disinformation to the Iranian masses. There is a reason for that and we can understand it. But this is so far from reality it is hard to fathom why Ahmadinejad would spin this tale.

The West along with the Middle East region is petrified of Iranian nuclear aspirations.

About the claim of energy independence, that would be a dream come true for the West.

If only everyone would become oil independent, that would mean that the entire region would be left with almost no international, diplomatic or economic leverage. If that were to happen, Iran would be a country like Micronesia - a country most people have never heard of it.

Ahmadinejad - that joke would be on you.

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Fort Hood Shooter
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There has been much speculation about the Ft. Hood shooter, Nidal Malik Hassan.

Some elements are simple fact.
He was a medical doctor and trained psychiatrist. He was a major in the US Army and the Army paid for his education. He was born in America but his family is Palestinian from the village of al Bira.

But the most telling element in the life of Nidal Malik Hassn is the mosque in which he prayed in Northern, VA.
He prayed at Dar al Hijrah in Great Falls, VA. He prayed there during the same period that two of the 9/11 bombers, Nawaf al-Hamzi and Hani Hanjour, prayed there. And he prayed there at the same time of day as they prayed there.

The Imam of the Dar al Hijrah mosque, Anwar al Awlaki, preached violent and extreme ideas. The Sunday Times of London describes this Yemini born Imam as a man who supports attacks on British troops and supports terror attacks.

The Times of London quotes a fellow Muslim officer describing how the Ft. Hood shooter talked with deep respect about the radical Imam's ideas and how his eyes would light up. The FBI is investigating these connections.

This is not a simple coincidence.
The Ft. Hood shooter was not part of the 9/11 gang, but he was clearly and heavily influenced by the same factors and teachers as the men who perpetrated the worst terror attack against the United States.

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Abbas Resignation?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It was assumed.
Now it is official.
At least for now.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has informed the election committee that he will not submit his name as a candidate in the upcoming January election.

Abbas went on to say that his announcement was neither a publicity stunt nor a political maneuver.

Abbas has said this all before.

If Abbas resigns there is little chance that Fatah will be able to fend off Hamas' total sweep of the Palestinian elections.

If Abbas pulls out Hamas will easily win the presidency as well as the prime ministry.

Fatah's failure in the election will be rightfully blamed on Abbas.

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Iran Is Sending Even More Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has intercepted an enormous arms shipment.
The arms were en route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Hamas in Gaza.
This was the largest arms cache ever stopped by Israel on its way to terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza.

As I looked down the list of the weapons captured by the Israeli Navy and as I watched video of the cases and cases of weapons being taken off the captured boat in Israel - I was shocked. I saw two types of rockets, the 122 mm rocket and the 107 mm Katyusha.

These are very common weapons in the Hamas Hezbollah arsenal.
According to military intelligence reports in Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas already have a significant supply of these rockets.
If this is true, why were the Iranians shipping these weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas?

The answer is that Iran is using every means - air and sea - to deliver weapons to Lebanon and Gaza. And they are undoubtedly successful.

This particular sea shipment was intercepted but it is abundantly clear that many others got through.
And they and will continue to get through.
Hamas and Hezbollah weapon stores are growing larger and larger and more and more quickly.

That should frighten all of us.

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Military Intel in Israel Shows New Threats
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have been poring over reports by Israel's Chief of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin.

Yadlin made it very clear that Syria and Iran have provided Hamas with a rocket that has a 60 kilometer (48 mile) range - a rocket that can hit downtown Tel Aviv.
Yadlin reports that Hamas test fired this ordinance into the Mediterranean Sea.

He paints a picture of Syria that has them working on two completely different tracks.
Track one is warming and expanding relationships with the West.
Track two is arming Hezbollah and Hamas.

He describes Iran's Qom nuclear site as definitely NOT scientific, but built for the purposes of public energy. He said that in Qom there are advanced centrifuges whose purpose was to speed uranium enrichment.

Yadlin made it clear that Israel's enemies are becoming stronger and more sophisticated.
Yadlin made it clear that the threat to Israel is increasing.

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The Hajj Begins
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Hajj is about to begin.
The Hajj is an annual pilgrimage to Mecca to visit the Kabbah, the holiest site in Islam.
The Kabbah is located in Saudi Arabia and is kept under very strict security.

The Hajj takes place from the 7th to the 13th day of the 12th month of the Islamic calendar, the month is called the Dhu al Hijja.
It is a reenactment of the story of Ibrahim and Hajar, also known as Abraham and Hagar.
It is from Hagar that the word Hajj is derived and a pilgrim is called a Hajji, someone who is participating in the Hajj.

Iranians are beginning to set out for Mecca.
As they prepare to depart the Supreme leader of Iran has given them a message. Actually, it is more of a warning.
The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said: "display the firm resolve of the Muslim nation to confront attempts that damage its unity and progress." In other words, confront the Sunni Leadership of Saudi Arabia.

In response, Saudi Arabia has issued a clear statement that they will strictly uphold security and that no politics will be permitted during this Hajj.

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2 Big News Items
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Two very important news announcements came out of the Middle East yesterday.

Saudi Arabia announced that they discovered an al Qaeda arms cache containing hundreds of weapons and ammo - proof that al Qaeda is alive and well and planning attacks in Saudi Arabia.

Iran announced that president Ahmadinejad will be visiting Turkey next Sunday - a visit that comes on the heels of the Turkish leader's visit to Iran last week.

The deepening friendship between these two neighbors is deeply troubling not only to the West but also to many in the Arab world.
The warming of diplomacy could have a tremendous impact on regional relations and will influence the ways in which the West exerts pressure on Iran down the line.

Turkey refused to give the US permission to launch or to fly over their airspace during the last Gulf War.
This could take the bite out of any diplomatic or military strike against Iran.

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US Will Continue Talks with Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's "preliminary response," as it is being called by the IAEA in Geneva, is as creative a move as it is effective.
It pitches to Iranian strengths - biding for time and delaying action by the West.

The United States has yet to respond to the Iranian non-response response.
That's because the US cannot count on either Russia or China to help support new and stricter sanctions against Iran.
As a result, the US has no alternative but to push ahead with negotiations.

Iran knows that there is almost nothing that the West can do to stop their move to develop nuclear technology.
Iranian media is filled with statements about Iranian officials demanding the right to import uranium.

Once again, the West has been blindsides by Iran.
The West hopes that, eventually, Iran will capitulate and accept Western demands.
But that is highly unlikely.
In the meantime, Iran will continue to deftly rig the negotiations in their own favor.

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Mrs. Clinton Visits Morocco
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will arrive in Israel on Saturday night.
On Sunday morning she will meet with Israeli leaders and then with Palestinian leaders.

George Mitchell, President Obama's special envoy, will arrive on Friday in advance of the secretary of state in order to test the winds and pave the way for Clinton who hopes to jumpstart negotiations.

Before coming to Israel Clinton will visit other countries in the region.
In Morocco she will meet with a group of Arab leaders and try to gauge exactly how disappointed and angry the Arab world is with the new US administration.
These leaders will be telling her about their frustrations with the US approach to Iran and with the softening attitude the United States has adopted towards Israeli settlement activity.

Prepare yourself Madam Secretary of State, you are in for a real tongue lashing.

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Bahrain Passes Anti Israel Law
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the parliament of the tiny and very, very rich Gulf country Bahrain passed legislation making it illegal to engage in any interaction with Israel.

Any talking or any travel would be punished.
According to a member of Bahrain's parliament: "Whoever holds any communication or official talks with Israeli officials or travels to Israel will face a fine ... and/or a jail sentence of three to five years."
He further explained that this legislation was instituted in order to stop the normalization of ties with Israel: "The motivation is that steps are being taken by certain countries to allow certain talks to be held with Israeli officials. Israeli delegates have managed to participate in events in Arab countries with no treaties with Israel."

Bahrain passed this law even as the Obama administration is exerting pressure on Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel.
The parliament of Bahrain has no real power, but his move is indicative of the mood of the people - and the people of Bahrain resent that their leadership is leaning to the West.

In July, on the OPED page of the Washington Post, Bahrain's Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa explained how Arabs needed to reach out to Israelis directly.
And in that same month five Bahraini diplomats visited Israel.

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US Citizens Support Strike on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Anti Defamation League released the results of their newest survey of Americans yesterday.

The study is worthy of note.
57% of the respondents viewed an Israeli air strike against Iran in order to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons favorably.
This new set of numbers shows the continuation of a trend that supports an Israeli defensive strike against Iran.

The increasing threat by Iran is not the result of a media blitz or a political lobby.
The movement to support Israel is a natural outgrowth of Iran's taunting of the international community, it is a natural reaction to the strident arrogance of Iran.

It seems that Americans have the feeling that the United States will not act against Iran but that Israel must strike if threatened.
US leadership is beginning to look at that these results very carefully.

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Egypt Finds 2 Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian security forces announced yesterday that they discovered and destroyed two tunnels used for smuggling materials into Gaza.

The Egyptians have finally begun to take this situation very seriously.
They know that Hamas is acting against Egyptian national interests.
They know that Hamas is unpredictable.
They know that Hamas uses these tunnels as a way to strengthen their forces and their cause.

For a long time Egypt deliberately turned a blind eye to the smuggling and to the building of the tunnels. Israel would discover a tunnel and blow it up. A flume of smoke would explode out of the other end o f the tunnel on the Egyptian side. More than once that other end of the tunnel was in an Egyptian army camp.

Shutting down the tunnels puts pressure on Hamas.
It sends a message that says Egypt cannot be disrespected.
For a long time Egypt was naive about Hamas, assuming they were working in the best interests of the Palestinians.
Egypt now understands Hamas. Egpyt does not appreciate what Hamas is really up to.

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Saudis Convict Journalist to 60 Lashes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A Saudi Arabian woman has been sentenced by a Saudi Arabian court to 60 lashes.

Rozanna al Yami is the first Saudi woman journalist ever to be sentenced.
Her crime is helping produce and advertise a movie that aired on the internet and on satellite TV in Lebanon.
The movie was about a man who discussed - with words only, sexual activity.

Al Yami was convicted of licensious behavior.
The Saudi man was sentenced to 5 years imprisonment and 1000 lashes.

In Islam, the person administering the lashes places a book under his arm in order to limit the range of motion and thereby lessening the pain of the lashes.

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Erekat's Expectations & Demands
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat is in Washington.
Erekat arrived on Tuesday and has been making the rounds in talks. He has met with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, National Security Adviser James Jones and Presidential Special Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell.

Erekat made Palestinian expectations vis a vis the Israelis crystal clear in an interview he gave the official Palestinian newspaper al-Ayam.
Erekat listed three items:
# 1: No more settlement activity of any kind
# 2: No interim agreements or short term resolutions - final status talks only
# 3: These talks must conclude with the establishment of a Palestinian State

Erekat did not use the catch phrase "preconditions for negotiations."
Instead he used the euphemism "explicit Israeli commitments that they must meet."
Given the White House's recent dropping of the term "precondition" regarding the freezing of settlements, it is difficult to gauge US reaction to these "demands."

In Middle East diplomacy there is often a public strong stance and a much more reasonable behind-closed-doors private stance.
In the end, it becomes a diplomatic balancing act.
We will see what happens here.

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Abbas-Hamas Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas wants Hamas to come under his control.

The Palestinian president announced that he will call for elections this week if Hamas does not sign the reconciliation agreement that Egypt has brokered between Fatah and Hamas. The elections would be held on January 24, 2010.

Abbas would be committing Palestinian political suicide to call for elections now.

# 1: The Egyptian agreement is more favorable to Hamas than to Fatah.
The agreement allows Hamas access and lends them respectability with the West Bank. It calls for communication and mutuality between the groups. The mutuality would be in the form of communication and police. It treats Hamas as partners in governance and policing.

# 2: An election will undoubtedly help Hamas more than Abbas.
Hamas already has a majority in the Parliament and has already earned the Prime Ministry even if Abbas did take it away from them after the Hamas/Fatah break-up. There is even a distinct possibility that Hamas would unseat Abbas as president.

# 3: If Abbas does hold elections and if Hamas chooses not to participate, that weakens Abbas even further. Abbas would be seen as president of the West Bank only.

Hamas is anti-democratic and it is unlikely that they will permit elections.
There is only one possible scenario in which Hamas would permit elections in Gaza - if they are convinced of a Hamas electoral sweep in both the West Bank and Gaza which would give them a majority in parliament plus the presidency.

And that just might happen.

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Abbas Failed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Abbas is dropping in popularity.
The drop is consistent.
He cannot bring his numbers up.

According to this week's JMCC survey of 1200 Palestinians, if a presidential election were to be held now, Abbas would not emerge the winner.

The election would be too close to call between Abbas and the Hamas candidate, Ismael Haniyah.

In the West Bank, Abbas's numbers have toppled to 12% from 18%.

Haniyah is at 14.2%.

The change in voting preference happened since JMCC’s last survey in June.

These results are extremely telling.

The rise of Hamas' popularity in the West Bank is a damning condemnation to Fatah and Abbas' leadership.

It makes sense in Gaza where Hamas is in charge, but when the West Bank sees the oppression of Hamas in Gaza and still prefers Hamas to Fatah that signals a serious synapse.

The only way to maintain Fatah power will be through force and Abbas does not have the personal character to apply military pressure to put Hamas back in its place.

We are witnessing the self destruction of Fatah and the rise of Hamas - all under Abbas' watch.

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Egypt is Frustrated With Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 19, 2009

I'm Predicting:

Today on al Arabia, the most watched Arabic TV station in the World -with a viewership even larger than al Jazeera - the spokesman for Egypt's Foreign Ministry lambasted Hamas.

Hussam Zaki said that Egypt had successfully negotiated a deal between Fatah and Hamas that was to be signed last week - and now Hamas wants an extension.
Hamas is upset that Fatah did not immediately embrace the Goldstone Report and they are standing on that principle.

Egypt is quickly losing patience.
Egypt now realizes that reconciling Hamas and Fatah is nor in anyone’s best interest. Giving credit where credit is due, the United States was instrumental in bringing Egypt to that realization.

Egypt now realizes that Hamas is a serious liability and, even without Hamas' foot dragging, they will be drop the entire notion of a deal very soon.

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The Ayatollah Still Lives
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is either dead or suffered a stroke and is in a coma have been circulating for about a week.

Iranian internet was going wild with the rumors.
Analysts had no idea of what to think.

This was not the first time rumors like this were sent out.
They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
On Saturday pictures of The Ayatollah, attending an event, were released to the media.

The internet is very useful in Iran - but the resources are irresponsible and unreliable.
This lesson about Iran's internet should have been hammered home during the election when much of the material released on the internet was so exaggerated it was better termed fiction.
Some lessons are never learned.

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Turkey Arrest Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey arrested 32 al Qaeda terrorists in multiple, simultaneous, raids across the country yesterday. The word is that there were 8 raids all together - but there could very well have been more.

The terrorists were charged with a long list of crimes including planning to attack NATO, the United States and Israeli targets.

Some of the terrorists were also charged with participating in a series of terror attacks that rocked Turkey in 2003 - attacks on two Turkish synagogues, an HSBC bank and the British Consulate.

Seven people have already been tried for the 2003 terrorist attacks, but clearly, the net is very large and it seems that Turkey is actively pursuing more of these terrorists and hopes to bring them all to justice.

These raids and these arrests are vitally important.

It is important that we understand how very many al Qaeda terrorists are actively pursuing their agendas in Turkey.

It is important to know that Turkey is in hot pursuit, that Turkey is working hard to prevent future terror attacks.

Turkey deserves to be commended.

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Strange New Friends
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A new alliance has been created in the Middle East.
The ramifications are important and almost no one is taking notice.

Syria and Turkey signed a series of agreements that will bring them much closer.
They agreed that they will no longer need visas to cross their mutual borders.

Syria and Turkey also announced a sophisticated set of joint military maneuvers.
And then Turkey cancelled long planned military maneuvers with Israel.

This alliance does not signal a sudden change.
Turkey has been slowly moving in this direction.
Turkey is seen as pro-Western with a very traditional Islamic bent.
Syria is one of the serious bad guys of the region.

The alliance between these two neighbors is anything but normal.
Syria is the big winner, Turkey gets the best neighbor award.
There is a hitch:
Syria does not have lasting relationships that do not involve terror and exploitation. Turkey is trying to build a real economy and create real relationships.

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Algeria Boycotts Israel
By Micah Halpern

October 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Algeria has been trying to buy arms from France for the past year.
The deal was almost complete, but it fell through at the last moment.

France refused to divulge the country of origin of all the components that went into the deal. Algeria wanted to make certain that no Israeli parts were in the systems they were buying. France would not bend. So the deal went sour.

The details of the deal were described in the Algerian paper el Khabar. A high level source in the Algerian Defense Ministry said that a contract of this sort is not new for Algeria. He said his country added the same clause when they were buying helicopters from Britain and buying battleships from Italy.

Algeria is the third largest military spender in the region when it comes to outfitting an army.

Algeria throws around a lot of money.
Algeria is boycotting Israel.

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Iran Threatens The West
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a bold declaration on Iranian state TV yesterday. He warned the West that the Oct 19th meeting had better be productive and not be a Western ploy to institute more sanctions against Iran.

He said: "The October 19 meeting is a test for fruitful cooperation {with the West} in the future."
"Failure of the meeting and imposing sanctions on Iran would hurt the West more than Iran."

Iran is making it very clear that this is a serious game.
Iran is coming to discuss issues of world nuclear supervision and how important it is to widen the self-appointed policing group.
Iran wants to be part of the group.
Iran has no interest in taking responsibility or debating their rights to nuclear development.

It behooves the West to realize in advance of this meeting that Iran and the West see the situation very differently.
If the West misreads this opportunity, the possibility of a backlash is great.

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Invest in Hamas?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Bloomberg News ran a spectacular piece explaining the investment risk of building smuggling tunnels in Gaza.

The tunnels are used to smuggle weapons, explosives, people and even livestock from Egypt into Gaza.
The Hamas government has promised 10% per month on investments. Remarkably, Hamas pays the dividends to investors - with only one exception.

If the tunnel is destroyed, Hamas does not pay.
That's a problem because Israel and Egypt have become very successful at destroying tunnels.
In response, Hamas has guaranteed 16.5% back if the tunnel is destroyed.

Pretty remarkable, right?
Well, not if you're an investor.
Investors are demanding all their money back if the tunnels are destroyed - they want a no risk investment.
According to the Bloomberg piece, 4000 people invested huge sums of money. One real estate broker named Sharub invested a half million dollars and now he wants it back.

As the saying goes, the greater the risk the greater the return.
But sometimes an investment is too good to be true.
In this case, investing in Hamas is a risk too good to be true.


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No More Veils in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is in the midst of a major conflict between the modern world and the traditional world.
That's not just conjecture, it is the claim made by Ali Gomaa the Grand Mufti of Egypt in an OPED published in Thursday's Wall Street Journal.

And then Sheik Azhar Mohammed Sayyed Tantawi, one of the most important Sheiks of Egypt, has also issued a new Islamic law, a fatwa, that forbids female students in state schools from wearing the veil known in Arabic as a niqab.

It is all a direct response to the rise of the Taliban.
The Taliban are influencing the entire Islamic world.
That influence is most clearly seen in the niqab, the facial veil that is becoming more and more prominent on Arab streets.

When he entered a classroom the Grand Sheik noticed a girl wearing a niqab.
He shouted at her and said "Niqab has nothing to do with Islam. I know about religion better than you and your parents."
He spoke the truth.

There is no clear Muslim obligation to wear the niqab.
There is no real significant international Islamic leader who has called on women to wear them.
Wearing the veil is an outgrowth of the tribal period before Mohammed.

There is a real conflict in Egypt.
It is a manifestation of the conflict within Islam.

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Egypt Nixes the Louvre
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has officially severed all ties with the Louvre in Paris.

The Louvre is one of the greatest museums in the world. It houses some of the greatest artifacts of Western civilization. Some of those artifacts were discovered in Egypt and then taken to Paris.

Egypt wants the artifacts back.
The museum pieces were never loaned to the Louvre, they were booty taken to bolster France's colonial empire. They were expropriated during a period in history when Empires established colonies around the world and then proceeded to exploit the citizens and the natural resources - including historical and archeological sites.

In Egypt, France expropriated great national treasures and brought them back for display in their world class museum, making it an even greater and more famous museum.

The Louvre has responded. The official response is that the museum not against returning the national treasures to Egypt, but there is a bureaucratic process to follow.

Egypt has ratcheted up the pressure.
They are getting nowhere going the bureaucratic route.

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Libya Demands Investigation
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Libya's representative in the United Nations has appealed to the Security Council to have a special meeting to discuss the Goldstone Report.

The request was made to the Vietnamese ambassador. Vietnam holds the rotating chair of the Security Council. Vietnam has confirmed that Libya made the request.

This is just the beginning.

Even though it has been rejected by the United States, Israel and the Palestinians the Goldstone Report has taken on a life of its own. Like so many other fact finding reports that are short on facts and heavy on slanted perspective, once they are part of the public record they are used and abused.

It does not matter what Abbas or Obama or Netanyahu think.
What does matter is how other countries - like Libya, embrace the Report and how they run with it, and then, how the US counters.

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Watch Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

One of the ways to understand what is happening in the Middle East is to watch who is meeting whom in the Middle East.

This week Syria is the focus of my attention.

This week the King of Saudi Arabia will be visiting Syria.
This is the first visit by the Monarch since the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri in 2005. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria is responsible for much of what happens in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria interferes and foments internal strife in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia believes that the ultimate objective of Syria is empowering Shiites.

As far as Syria is concerned, Saudi Arabia can provide Syria the access they crave to get back into the mainstream Arab world.
As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, this visit will be an attempt to bring Syria closer to the Western way of thinking.

At the same time that the Saudi leader was invited to Syria, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was dis-invited by Syria. The Syrians gave no reason for dis-sing Abbas. But you can bet that the Palestinian leader was un-invited because Syria is angry that Abbas is no longer backing the Goldstone Report. Syria is a huge supporter of Hamas.

Syria is telegraphing their thoughts to the Arab world by way of their official invite list.

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PA Rejects Goldstone Report
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have withdrawn their support for the Goldstone Report.

The Report, which condemned Israel in their recent battle against Hamas, clearly states that Israel acted outside the guidelines of international law.
So why did Mahmoud Abbas give the order to reject the report?
Palestinians are asking the same question and have established a committee to discuss the direction they should take in response.

The most important reason for Palestinian rejection of the Goldstone Report is pressure from the US, especially from Hillary Clinton.
The Americans have made it very clear that embracing the Report will make it very difficult to move forward with Israel. It will make it impossible for Israel to feel that they can defend themselves.
More than that, Fatah knows that Hamas is growing in strength - and beating down Hamas is an essential part of their future plan.

But there's a problem:
By withdrawing support for the Goldstone Report it appears as if Abbas has turned his back on Palestinians in Gaza. Palestinians on the street are asking if Abbas has sold his soul and his people to accommodate the United States which is simply defending the Israelis.

Israel is capable of weathering the storm, they do that all the time.
Abbas is now in an even more precarious position in terms of his popularity, and that could play directly into the hands of Hamas.
I am not certain that the US understood just how dramatic the counter response on the street would be to rejecting the Goldstone Report.

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Missile Philosophy
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Much discussion and emphasis has been placed on rocket missile systems.
The Iranians tested them.
Hamas is using them.
Hezbollah is collecting them.

It is important to understand missile philosophy.
Missiles are a tool.
Missiles can cause damage and can terrorize.
But as a rule wars are not won and lost through missiles - with the obvious exception, of course, of the nuclear warhead.

Conventional wars are won through conventional means - soldiers, tanks, planes, helicopters, military saturation. For Western nations, missiles are a defensive weapon. Smart bombs, a type of missile, can also be a first strike weapon. Missiles can dismember important internal enemy organs but they do not win the war. That is the case no matter how accurate the missiles may be. There is no substitute for a conventional military presence - with the obvious exception of total obliteration.)

Missile use and missile testing are tools of intimidation.
Missiles and rockets are vehicles used by the weak and lazy to intimidate, to threaten and to bolster a message.

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Hamas is Winning
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

This week the organization Palestinian Media Watch correctly concluded that Palestinian factions are so fractionalized and so plagued by internal fighting that only one thing universally unites them.
Kidnapping Israeli soldiers.

The huge array of Palestinian organizations have concluded that the best way to attack Israel and force her to compromise is to kidnap Israelis.

The kidnapping of Gilad Shalit is a perfect example.
Palestinian press - radio, print and tv, emphasis how enormous the role of kidnapping plays in their modus operandi. Even on Palestinian summer camps children are taught how to kidnap Israelis. After Israel released 19 Palestinian female prisoners in exchange for a video tape of Gilad Shalit, the Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah said that "this was a great victory for the kidnappers."

This is an essential issue to understand.
This shared realization shows that across the board Palestinians agree that they have discovered the soft underbelly of Israel.

Israel and the West must understand this, too.
Not because kidnapping is immoral or uncivilized, but because it is the method that will be employed.
And it is a method very difficult to prevent and defend against.

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Iran Wins in Talks
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The meeting between the 5 plus 1 and Iran ended without fireworks.
The group agreed to meet again.

The most important element to emerge from this meeting is that Iran got a better understanding that the West wants to talk - and not to use the military option.

Iran understands that there still exists the strong possibility of greater sanctions. Iran also believes that they can withstand these sanctions because the gasoline they so badly crave has already been promised by China and Venezuela.

Iran suggested the transfer of uranium to a third party for enrichment for their medical reactor at Teheran University. This was a suggestion originally put forth by George Bush.

In this discussion, Iran came out the great victor.
They spoke about world issues of nuclear development.
They emphasized how important it was for people to live up to international agreements.
They said that they have the right to develop nuclear technology.
The 6 retorted that that is exactly what they expected of Iran, and Iran said of course.

The head of the IAEA will visit Iran this weekend to see the newly publicized sites. The Iranians say they informed the IAEA about these new sites last year.

No party made any real headway.
But Iran achieved greater political advantage in the meeting because they were elevated to a party with standing. They were face to face equal footing with the United States and the West.
What we have here "is a failure to communicate."

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NY Businessman Confessed
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A New York Arab businessman, known as Abdul Tawala Ibn Ali Alishtari aka Michael Mixon, pled guilty to funneling over $150,000 to a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.

Alishtari also pled guilty to defrauding millions of dollars from investors in an investment scheme.

This is a great victory for the prosecution in the United States.
The United States has had difficulty convicting terrorists.
The best way to keep convictions coming is to make certain that the defendants confess.

Bravo.

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Iran Tests Missiles & US
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is snubbing its nose at the United States and at the West.

On Sunday Iran tested 3 short range missiles, today they test their long range Shabab-3.

The Shabab-3 has a 1250 mile range and can easily hit Israel.
The Shabab-3, tipped with a non-conventional weapon, will probably be Iran's weapon of choice when their nuclear development is complete.

Iran's short range missiles are important, too.
The Fatah Tandoor and the Zilzal fit into the Iranian arsenal and will become essential exports to Hezbollah and Hamas.

It is not accidental that Iran is conducting these tests and conducting them now.
Iran chose to test their missiles on Yom Kippur to inform Israel that their judgment day is near.

General Hussein Salami, head of Iran's air-force says that Iran will teach the West and Israel a lesson: "We are capable of supplying a devastating quick response to our enemy." He went on to say that Israel should get its own house in order, "it is best that the Zionist entity…deal with its own problems."

Iran is very serious.
Iran is sending another important message - we must pay attention and make certain that we interpret the Iranian message correctly.

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A Safer World
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Farouk Hosni really is evil.

Hosni is the Egyptian Minister of Culture who tried to become Director of UNESCO five times - and lost each time.
He is the man who wanted to burn all the Israeli books in Egypt.
He is the man who claimed to have repented and changed his ways.

The real Farouk Hosni has surfaced again.
In interviews with newspapers in Egypt and the United Arab Republic he is claiming that he lost because the Jews conspired against him and because of racism.

Hosni has announced that he is renewing his position against normalizing ties with Israel and embarking on a culture war against Israel. He wants Egypt to dwarf Israel in a war against Israeli tyranny and colonialism.

The world is very lucky that Farouk Hosni was not elected in last week's election.
Surprisingly, Israel removed its objections to Hosni, but many other human rights leaders in the West refused to drop their reservations against him.
Throughout the campaign Hosni apologized for his past and claimed to have grown and matured.
I was very skeptical.
Now we see that Farouk Hosni will always be true to his convictions.

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Ahmadinejad Cancels a Press Conference
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad canceled a press conference at the UN on Friday. That is historic. Ahmadinejad never misses a chance to rail on the West and on the USA.
Ahmadinejad had a great opportunity to get on the front pages of newspapers around the world, and he chose not to.
That is historic

Ahmadinejad cancelled his press conference because he cannot speak without answering questions. And he did not want to be asked about Iran's newly publicized nuclear plants.

Ahmadinejad did comment on the nuclear plants in an interview with Time Magazine and in a statement he released. He said that they are not secret. That they informed the IAEA last year about them and the IAEA is invited to inspect them.

Ahmadinejad made two other interesting comments:
He said the US and France would regret their great insult - saying that Iran lied. He said that Iran does not have to answer to Obama.

These two comments are telling. Calling Ahmadinejad and by extension all of Iran deliberate fabricators of the truth is a huge insult. And assuming that all the countries in the world are little children who must answer to Obama is truly infantilizing.

It may be arrogance, but the United States is still the United States.
In order to play, you have to pay and in this case that means being accountable to the US.

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Iranian Exiles Give an Address of Nuke Lab
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian exile group headquartered in Paris has delivered critical information about Iran's nuclear technology.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) delivered a series of satellite pictures of two Iranian nuclear facilities to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
They even gave over the address of a research and development lab in Teheran that is working on key components of the nuclear trigger mechanism.

The IAEA has almost no Intel about what happens inside Iran.
This Iranian exile group is providing information about what Iran is truly doing behind closed doors.
This group and other exile groups have contacts inside Iran and even contacts working inside Iran's nuclear facilities.
Any information the IAEA gets will help point investigators in the right direction.

I hope that Iran does not shut down the lab.
I hope the IAEA gets in there fast enough to see what is happening.

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Libya at The UN
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It was called a speech, but it really was a diatribe.

Yesterday, Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi, in his address before the General Assembly of the United Nations delivered a diatribe against the West, specifically against the Untied States.

A verbatim repetition of Ghadaffi's speech would be monotonous and counter productive.

The only reason at all to analyze the speech is to shed light on the way the leader of Libya is thinking - to understand what goes on in that mind.

Ghadaffi suggested that the "Security Council" be renamed the "Terror Council." He said that the way the world works, everyone else is made to feel "second class."

Libya is buying into the message that Ahmadinejad and Chavez are spreading. The message is that the current balance of the world is out of balance.

The message is that the world needs a readjustment.

The readjustment would liberate the world from the oppression of the United States.

Ghadaffi repeatedly said that he wants to free the US of their responsibilities.

The truth is, Libya wants to assume more responsibility i.e., Ghadaffi wants to play a larger role in running the world

Libya wants to become a player together with Iran and Venezuela.
That is serious.
That cannot be allowed to happen.

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The UN's GA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations is in the throes of the annual General Assembly.

There have been several terror threats made against the General Assembly. Homeland Security has extended the threat to public entertainment areas all across America.

The question is: Why would Muslim terrorists target the GA?
After all, the United Nations often gives voice to the sentiments and even to the political views of terrorists. All voices are heard in the GA, even those of Muammar Ghadaffi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Robert Mugabe.

The answer is: Terrorists do not care about those who defend them, they care that the GA also houses their enemies. At the GA, the Western world has the same voice as the thugocracies - and that upsets the terrorists. Terrorists do not want equal voices, they want world domination. To them, the United Nations is a symbol of how Islam bends over to accommodate other cultures of the world and that is unacceptable to the Islamic terrorist.

That is why terrorists target the UN and the GA.

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Iran is Very Happy
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

We all know that Russia was tickled pink that the United States shelved its missile stations in Poland and Czech.

The level of understanding of most people covering the news and most people reading the news was so low, and in this case so warped, that people thought that the purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Russia.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Iran.

Now you won't be surprised to learn that yesterday, Iran who came out in support of scrapping the program.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi explained just how happy the Iranians are about the change in US missile tactics.
He said:
"The Islamic republic welcomes any action that serves to decrease arms races."

Iran just won another round.
For Iran, this was not a win by default - it was a total knockout.
And it was handed to them on a silver platter by the United States of America.

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Al Qaeda Threatens Germany
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda released two threatening video tapes over the weekend.
The first was released on Friday, the second video was released on Sunday.

Bother al Qaeda videos were in German.
The German government has confirmed the identity of the speaker and confirmed that the threat is real.

The speaker was a German /Moroccan named Bakkay Harack.
The videos lambaste the German government for deploying troops in Afghanistan.
They warn that Germany is in for a "rude awakening" if German troops are not evacuated from Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is increasing their threats.
Al Qaeda is trying to intimidate Western countries into changing policy on Afghanistan and on Iraq.
Al Qaeda will attempt to strike at Germany but the Germans will hold their ground.

Germany understands that they are in Afghanistan for the very reason they are being threatened.
Germany understands how crucial it is to prevent al Qaeda from influencing and striking out against the West.

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Ahmadinejda is Not Welcome
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad will be in New York City for the UN General Assembly.
This year, the welcome given to the Iranian president will be even less warm than it was last year.

Iranians have invited numerous people to many events and almost everyone has declined their invitations. Even the Jews who attended last year's events are staying away. Not because of Ahmadinejad's attitude concerning Israel, because of his behavior following the June 12th election that re-elected him.

A dinner party on Thursday night was to be the main Ahmadinejad event.
Last year numerous academics and even Jewish leaders attended a similar event. Last year the attendees came claiming that is was important to speak even to people with whom you disagree. This year that argument cum rationale has fallen by the wayside.

Ahmadinejad will do an NBC interview.
He has received no university invitations from universities.
The Helmsley Hotel cancelled a dinner event that was to take place in their dining room.

This year it seems as if the American people, even if not the American government, are beginning to see Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for who he rally is.


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Egypt is in a Tizzy
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian media is in a tizzy.
An Egyptian journalist met with the Israeli ambassador.
Newspapers and TV in Egypt are blasting Hala Mustafa, editor of Egypt's Democracy Magazine, for daring to officially meet with Ambassador Shalom Cohen of Israel.

What's the big deal?
An official meeting with the Israeli ambassador means formal recognition of Israel.
Hobnobbing at a cocktail party or passing each other at a movie premier, although it may be planned, is not "official" - a sit down in an office, that's official.

Don't the governments of Israel and Egypt have formal, even peaceful relations?
They do, but it has not yet trickled down to the level of the intelligentsia.
It is classic Egyptian political double messaging.

The Press Association has summoned Mustafa for a hearing because she violated a condition of membership, the "resolution that forbids normalizing ties with Israel."

You got it.
Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and yet, Egyptian press is forbidden from meeting with the Israeli Ambassador.
That's what you call peace in the Middle East.

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Obama Cuts the Czech Missiles
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama has decided to cancel the Bush anti-Iranian missile program in Poland and the Czech Republic.

From the very beginning the Russians have been very upset by this US program.
Now the Russians are happier.
But here is something interesting:
On the same day that the US announced the cancellation of the missile program, the US announced that they would be acquiring the Arrow anti-missile system.

The Arrow is the jewel in Israel's crown of defensive weapons sold around the world.
It is the best short range anti-missile system in the world.
Why did the US decide to procure the Arrow?
To help defend its interests in Europe.

Obama seems to be redefining strategic threats.
The danger from Iran does not hinge on a long distance weapon as was thought by the Bush administration.
On this question, it seems that Obama might be on target.
No pun intended.

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Begging Doesn't Work
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Begging never works in diplomacy, especially Middle East diplomacy.
Begging never helps lure a leader over to your side.

The best diplomatic begging can do is to artificially trick the enemy into thinking that you are weaker than you are.
When former US President Bush begged the Saudi king to keep up the oil supply it served no good other than to show the Saudis how enslaved the United States was to Saudi oil.

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu traveled to Russia last week to beg Putin and Medvedev not to go through with an arms deal to Iran that includes the sale of the S-300, an advanced surface to air missile.

The S-300 is a weapon that could seriously impede an Israeli strike against Iran.
Russia realizes the value of the S-300.
That is why they are selling it, and that is why Iran is buying it.

Inadvertently, Bibi delivered a message to Russia.
He showed Russia just how important those weapons are to the Iranians - and now the Russians may tag on a higher premium to Iran.
More importantly, the weapons' credibility has just been authenticated by the best possible evaluator.

Now Russia will deliver a message to Iran.
Russia will tell Iran just how effective the S-300 will be against an Israeli air strike.

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New UN Head
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Treki stood up proudly and became the new President of the 64th United Nations General Assembly today.
The position of GA President rotates between the five major regions of the world.
Treki is a diplomat from Libya.

The new president takes over for Miguel d'Escoto Brockman a diplomat who had been the Sandinista Foreign Minister from Nicaragua in the 1980's. Brockman held that position during one of the worst periods of South American history. It was a period during which death squads assassinated countless citizens for daring to speak about challenging the Junta - even after the election.

Treki and Brockman are symbols for many Third World nations.
The UN gives voice to parts of the world that would not be heard from and that, honestly, should not be elevated to levels of power.
Like Nicaragua and Libya.

Libya just gave a hero's welcome to their arch terrorist, he of the Lockerbie bombing. The Libyan government even admitted that their own intelligence forces planned and executed the bombing.

It is bad enough that leaders of these nations are given the forum to address the General Assembly on an even footing with peace loving democratic societies.
It is even worse that leaders of these nations are appointed to positions of leadership and responsibility within the United Nations.
The United Nations is supposed to be the world body dedicated to the sanctity of life, human rights, freedom and justice.

This is what makes the United Nations General Assembly such a farce.
Not that these countries should not be represented ... but if their representatives are appointed to be leaders within the United Nations, they should be required to reflect and inspire the principles upon which the United Nations was founded.

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Bibi in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu paid a visit to Cairo and met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Netanyahu intended to pay tribute to Mubarak for his role in trying to free Israeli hostage Gilad Shalit who is being held in Gaza by Hamas.

Mubarak took advantage of the moment to promote his role as leader of the Arab world.
He gave Netanyahu a set of moral lessons.
He spoke about the risks and explosiveness of what he called "Judaizing Jerusalem."

Mubarak's spokesman explained that the president of Egypt made it clear to the prime minister of Israel that the Arab world does not care about natural growth.
He made it clear that any Jewish building in Jerusalem is like playing a very dangerous game.

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Shiite Law Against Peace
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In Lebanon today Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah, a leading Shiite religious leader, issued a religious ruling called a fatwa.
The fatwa forbids the normalization of ties with Israel.
"Islamic law forbids any normalization of ties with the Zionist enemy."

Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah holds no official government advisory position, but he is a well respected religious leader of the Shiite sect.

His rulings are read and followed throughout the Shiite world.

If this is the way Shiite Islam understands Islamic law, what chance is there for ever making peace?

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The Iranian Proposal - A 5 Page Joke
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have read all 5 pages of the Iranian proposal.
When the Iranians declared that they were preparing a proposal, I knew it would fall short of any serious dialogue on the issues.
Unfortunately, I was not disappointed.
At best, it is a joke.

Iran does not see that there is a problem.
Not once in the 5 pages does Iran speak about itself and its nuclear technology.
The ridiculously rambling document spews forth on issues of justice and freedom and condemns the empires that promote a double standard in the world.
The Iranians go so far as to volunteer to be part of a dialogue to rectify these injustices.

The document is called "Cooperation for Peace, Justice and Progress."
The document begins with the words "in the Name of the Almighty."
The second paragraph reads, "Resolution of these problems and creating a world filled with spirituality, friendship. Prosperity, wellness and security requires reorganization and creating an opportunity for broad and collective participation in the management of the world."
The proposal goes on and on about reorganizing the world, in other words, about ousting the United States and removing all traces of Western orientation.

Not one word about Iranian nukes.
This proposal is what is considered a non-starter.
Iran knew what was expected of them, made their own calculation and chose to solve the problem by saying that the problem is not with them but with US domination of the world.

How quintessentially Iran.

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Remember 9-11
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Eight years ago the world changed.
Eight years ago civilization was transformed.

We must not forget what we learned on September 11, 2001:
There are people who want to destroy the United States.
They want to destroy us because of what we represent.
We represent freedom and democracy and success.

We must not forget what we have learned since September 11, 2001:
There is a growing movement of terrorists who have no home port-of-call.
They train and organize all around the world.
Their targets are chosen from all around the world.
They are unyielding in their hatred of us and of the values we hold dear.

We must be vigilant.
We must learn more.
We must do our best to protect ourselves and our friends.

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OPEC is Optimistic
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC president Jose Botelho do Vasoncelos delivered his economic forecast at the OPEC meeting in Vienna yesterday.
He said that he was "optimistic that the darkest days of financial turmoil and economic recession are behind us."

The 12 OPEC members control most of the world's oil production.
The economic downturn hit them very hard.

OPEC's prognosis is an essential dimension of economic analysis.
OPEC needs a stronger economy in order to charge more for oil.
OPEC understands that the worse the economy gets, the more people conserve energy & the more people conserve, the less the demand and the lower the price of oil.

I would never wish OPEC well.
But I do hope that this prediction is correct.
I hope that the economy has bottomed out.

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Egypt Arrests 13 Shiites
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Egypt arrested 13 people and charged them with promoting Islam - promoting Shiite Islam.

Egypt is a Sunni country.

Egyptian law prohibits promoting Shiite Islam because Egypt sees Shiite Islam as a threat to their very existence.

It is legal to be Jewish and to have Jewish schools in Egypt, but it is illegal to teach Shiite Islam.

This is a critical element in understanding the nature of internal Islamic rifts that inform the very fabric of Muslim society.

Shiites and Sunnis are sworn religious enemies. They might both be Islamic, but their differences are so dramatic and their internal wars so vicious that they make external difference look minor. The core of Shiite Islam is Iran and that is intolerable in the eyes of Egypt.

The West labors under an almost complete lack of understanding of Islamic societies and neatly groups everyone under one umbrella - Muslim.

Unless the West opens its eyes to the nuances within Islam, we will never understand the inner workings and critical components that make that world tick.

In Egypt, Shiites are not welcome.

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Iran Making Anti Missile Missile
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iranian State TV announced that Iran was developing a new advanced weapons system.
The system is designed to intercept missiles mid-air.
It is an anti-cruise missile system.

This announcement may not be the absolute truth.
Iran has been known to exaggerate when it comes to weapons and advanced technology.
As tensions with the West continue to mount Iran is relying more and more on information and disinformation.
Iran wants to make certain that Israel and the US think twice before striking.

Believe me, these messages are evaluated very carefully to see if there is any real substance to them and if there is, to determine how far along the development and testing process Iran has come.

An anti-cruise missile system coupled with the newest anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems that Iran is getting from Russia means that Iran would be very well insulated from attack.

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Swedish FM Cancels Israel Trip
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt just canceled his diplomatic visit to Israel which had been scheduled for September 11th.

There has been a tremendous amount of diplomatic tension between Sweden and Israel over the past few weeks.

On two separate occasions a Swedish newspaper printed reports that Israeli soldiers harvest Palestinian organs for transplant.

The Swedish government has refused to distance itself from the articles which have never once offered any corroborating evidence.

The paper reported rumors and stories and Swedish leadership is choosing to hide behind the veil of freedom of the press, saying they do not interfere with the press.

Israel responded by saying that they did not ask the Swedish government to interfere. They are asking the Swedes to comment on the ridiculousness of the charges and the unprofessional journalistic approach that never even researched the material.

That is why the Swedish foreign minister canceled his trip to Israel

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Palestinians Expelled from UAE
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There has been very little speculation across the Arab world about why the United Arab Emirates fired and exiled hundreds of Palestinians.
The story has been barely covered.

To fill the void, Hamas released a statement saying that the UAE expelled the Palestinians because they were considered a security risk.
Hamas responded to their own statement saying that is was a farce and unfair accusation.
And still, the mass exile has received almost no coverage.

The real reason for the exile is difficult to unearth.
The UAE has released no comment.
But we know that the Palestinians working in the UAE were highly trained, well paid, skilled works. If even one worker was thought to be affiliated with or showing affinity for Hamas the likelihood is that they would all be fired and expelled.

The UAE is totally,100%, against Islamic extremism.
The UAE considers Hamas to be an extremist Islamic group that will not be tolerated in their regime.
The internal Arab fight against extremism is real and serious.
I hope the West takes this situation seriously, I hope the White House takes this situation seriously.

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Hezbollah Had Chemical Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A very disturbing report was published in a Kuwaiti newspaper yesterday.

The paper cited foreign intelligence sources in describing an accidental bomb explosion that took place in Lebanon on July 14 and killed 8 people. The paper reported that the explosion took place in a chemical bomb depot.

The paper, al Sayasseh, is generally well connected and has a good record on these issues. According to the intelligence sources Hezbollah refused to permit the Lebanese army into the area and kept the UNIFIL forces far way for 24 hours. The sources assert that this was done to give them time to remove all evidence of the chemicals.

The same source was quoted as having informed several European Union governments that Hezbollah has constructed chemical storage facilities to house weapons that they have imported from Iran, via airlift, to Syria.

If this is true, and it all seems very credible, danger in the region has increased exponentially.
Hezbollah is more volatile than Iran.

Chemical weapons in the hands of Hezbollah are a new catastrophic reality.

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Russian Ship Reappears
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A report about a Russian ship, en route to Iran and carrying weapons that suddenly disappeared, began circulating several weeks ago.

Originally, it was thought that the ship was hijacked by pirates but no crew and no ship and no cargo was found.
The ship just fell of the radar.
Then the thinking shifted and the theory was that the Israelis captured the ship in a way that only Israeli commandos can do.

Even Time Magazine alluded to this theory.
One Russian leader publicly berated an EU official who blamed Israel.
The condemnation was not diplomatic, it was pragmatic - he was saying keep your mouth shut because you do not know what is really happening.

Well, the mystery is over.
The ship has been found.
Turns out the Russians staged the entire affair as soon as they discovered that weapons were on the ship. They framed Israel and thought the entire episode was over. But an anonymous tip led investigators to find the ship and now all the pieces are coming into position.

That's international diplomacy, Russian style.

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It is All About Perspective
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

For a few days now there have been reports that a three way summit between United States, Israeli and Palestinian leaders will take place during the United Nations General Assembly.
The report was confirmed by Israeli President Shimon Peres in a Fox news interview.

There is a serious chasm between the three parties right now.
Mitchell and the Obama administration agreed that continued building in East Jerusalem on existing projects was okay.
Palestinian President Abbas says no way and no talks until all building stops. The entire Arab world is up-in-arms about the Jerusalem exemption.

Obama has his hands full.
Israel went into the Mitchell meeting saying that they agree to a 9 month moratorium on settlement building in the West Bank. But Israel asked to finish 2400 units in East Jerusalem. That sounded reasonable to the Obama administration so they agreed - after all, Israel agreed to stop all other building.

Washington is beginning to understand how nuanced the Middle East is.
It doesn't matter how things are viewed in DC.
What is considered reasonable in DC is very often not at all reasonable in the Middle East.

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UAE Captures Weapons On Way To Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 31, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It happened several weeks ago.
It was only reported about on Friday in a British newspaper.
It should not have been kept secret.

What is it?
What happened?
The United Arab Emirates, an Arab Gulf oil producing conglomerate of states, stopped and confiscated a ship carrying North Korean weapons en route to Iran.

This is a clear indication of what Iran is doing.
This is a clear indication of how North Korea is helping Iran.
This is also a clear violation of the international sanctions against Iran - sanctions that specifically forbid other countries from providing weapons, any kind of weapons, to Iran.

But as you probably guessed Iran does not care about international sanctions and neither does North Korea.

What is essential is that from this information we must assume if one ship was intercepted there have been many more that successfully slipped through. Who knows the kinds of North Korean weapons that Iran has imported via the vast sea?

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Guantanamo Sends 2 Syrians to Portugal
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Obama Administration is continuing its efforts to close Guantanamo. Closing a prison in Cuba specifically deigned to hold terrorists who threaten the United States is no easy task.
The most pressing issue is: where do you put the prisoners?

How about Portugal?
This weekend two Syrian prisoners were transferred to Portugal.
Portugal stepped forward and said that they had no problem receiving the Syrians.

How did Portugal become a haven for Syrian prisoners in a US military prison? The prisoners pleaded and begged not to be sent to back to Syria. They argued that they feared arrest and torture at the hands of the Syrian regime if they were returned to Damascus. So US authorities found a Portuguese alternative.

So far, the Guantanamo prisoner relocation plan has not proven effective.
Many of the prisoners, who were never tried or convicted, were sent back to their native homelands. Upon arrival they were transformed into local heroes and catapulted back into leadership positions in terror networks.

That's what happened in Yemen and in Afghanistan.
Is depositing Syrians in Portugal a better solution?
We will soon see.

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Jordan Lets Mashaal In
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Khaled Mashaal was just permitted to return to Jordan for the first time in ten years.
It will be his first return trip since being expelled.

The King of Jordan, King Abdullah, permitted Mashaal a temporary visit on humanitarian grounds.
Mashaal's father died in Amman at the age of 91.

We are seeing a very interesting component of Arabic society.
In Arab society it is possible for sworn enemies, like Hamas and the Royal Family of Jordan, to look the other way for reasons of mutual gain.

Let's examine what is happening.
On one hand:
Jordan gains tremendously by this act of kindness from Hamas followers in Jordan and on the West Bank.
The King has raised his currency and can now speak for the Arabs from a broader, more panoramic, perspective.

On the other hand:
This act of kindness is very risky for the King.
Mashaal could inject a huge sense of energy into Jordan's Hamas affiliates. Arabic death rituals include a mourning tent where masses come to pay tribute and Mashaal will hold court like a veritable king ... King of Hamas.

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US/Israel/Palestinians: A Tough Trio
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The US has accepted Israel's appeal to remove East Jerusalem from the building freeze.

On Wednesday, while in London, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu met with US Presidential Envoy George Mitchell. Netanyahu agreed to a 9 month moratorium on all building of any kind in the West Bank. He was adamant, however, about 2500 units in East Jerusalem that need to be finished. Mitchell accepted the counter proposal.

This was a huge success for Netanyahu.
It was a tremendous concession from the United States.
The US has always considered East Jerusalem to be exactly the same as the West Bank.

There seems to be real progress on the US/Israel front.
US/Palestinian and Israeli/Palestinian issues are another story.
The Palestinians are up in arms about the Netanyahu/Mitchell compromise.

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Supreme Leader Has the Right Take
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Here is an out-of-the-ordinary example of very clear, very honest, rhetoric that came from Iran yesterday.

The Supreme Leader the Great Ayatollah Khamenei gave a public address in which he said that there was no evidence that foreigners or foreign government agents or governments played any role in the unrest that rocked Iran after the June 12th elections.

The Supreme Leader also said that it appears that the rallies and protests had been organized in advance and even the political candidates probably did not know about them until they happened.

The Supreme Leader is probably correct on all counts.
Despite the xenophobic rhetoric that was espoused in the aftermath of the election, it was obvious that nearly everything that happened was domestically produced.
It was obvious that the rally attendees were prepped and just waiting for the election to happen so that they could perform their roles.
The winner in this election came as no surprise, everyone knew who the winner would be.
The rallies were organized as a tool to embarrass the regime in the international arena.

The organizers were very effective - they made their point.
As I explained before, during and after the election - the objective of the rallies was not to topple the government just to embarrass the government.

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Finally a Plan From The PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

For years, one of the central criticisms leveled against Palestinian statehood is that there is no infrastructure within the PA - that they are neither investing in nor planning for an infrastructure.
They get money earmarked for infrastructure, but never put it towards an infrastructure.
Without an infrastructure there is no possibility of having an efficient state.

Yesterday, disputed Palestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayyad, a bureaucrat through and through, put forth a 65 page document proposing a Palestinian infrastructure.

The details are pretty sketchy, but for the first time, at least there is a proposal.
Fayyad advocates building transportation systems that link Palestinian areas to neighbors. He suggests stimulating foreign investment and creating a stable economy.

Fayyad is a former assistant director of the World Bank. He has a PhD from the University of Texas. He is not well liked by Hamas and is particularly despised by Fatah leaders who see him as an outsider. But at least he has an idea.

65 pages is just a sketch ... but it is a start.

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Bibi On The Road
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

From Monday through Thursday Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will exchange his politician's hat for his diplomat's hat.
His mission will be to convince several world leader's that the Palestinians are not ready, willing or able to commit to peace right now.

Monday: In London, Netanyahu meets with Britain's ten most influential newspaper editors.

Tuesday: Netanyahu meets with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Wednesday: Netanyahu meets with US presidential envoy George Mitchell.

Thursday: In Berlin, Netanyahu meets with German Prime Minister Angela Merkel. Thursday night, he arrives back home.

The leaders Netanyahu will be meeting are neither anti-Israeli nor pro-Palestinian. They are just blind to the limitations of the Palestinians as state builders.

Netanyahu will need every skill he honed as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations. He will have to be both charming yet forceful. He will be waging an uphill battle on hostile playing fields.

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Hamas Finally Gives Aid
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The month long fast of Ramadan starts today in most parts of the Muslim world.
Muslims fast during the day, they eat at night and each night is a celebration. The month is dedicated to introspection and repentance.

To celebrate Ramadan, Hamas in Gaza has decided to transfer $100 of aid to all 78,000 registered employed and unemployed workers who live in Gaza. They will also transfer $50 worth of goods in the form of a food package.

Given the dire straits one would think that the leadership in Gaza would be more involved in distributing aid.
Unemployment in Gaza has reached 50%.
The assistance amounts to only about $12 million dollars.
Hamas receives significant international aid packages and they have smuggled in mega millions, but this will be the first time that Hamas is undertaking a serious program to distribute aid to the people of Gaza.

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Iran Appoints Terrorist as Defense Minister
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The new nominee for defense minister in Iran is Ahmad Vahidi.
That should not come as a surprise.

Vahidi is wanted in Argentina for the 1994 terrorist bombings that killed over 100 people in massive explosions at the Jewish Community Center (JCC).
Vahidi commanded the Quds Force which was part of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for terrorist activities abroad.
Vahidi helped Hezbollah perpetrate the attacks against the JCC.

There is no reason to assume that this nomination, the choice of Ahmadinejad, will not go through.

The Vahidi nomination is another example of how Iran enjoys strutting their feathers.
Iranian leadership knows who Vahidi is and they know what the Western world thinks about him. But they don't care.
Iran wants to appoint a man who is know to have successfully sponsored attacks against the West.
Iran is saying "in your face" to the West.

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Organizing Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 21,2009

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday.

The meeting was brought to the public's attention on the web site of the Russian foreign ministry.
Clinton and Lavrov spoke about Iran and the potential threat of Iran's nuclear technology.

As a result of the conversation, five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany will gather on September 2nd to discuss Iran and the Iranian nuclear threat. That, too, was announced on the Russian web site.

After the Russian website posted the announcement the German Chancellor said that they are gearing up to pressure Iran by adding more significant sanctions.
The Obama Administration is giving Iran until the opening of the UN General Assembly which takes place at the end of September to accept and toe the line.

Iran has begun to feel the heat of international pressure.
Yesterday the Iranians permitted United Nations inspectors entry into some atomic energy sites.

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Abbas in Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Palestinian Authority just visited Sudan.
He was treated like royalty and he returned the favor.

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, announced that he supports the Slaughter of Sudan aka Omar Al Bashir aka President for Life.
Al Bashir has been indicted by the World Court for mass murder and crimes against humanity.
Al Bashir is singly responsible for the massacres in Darfur, he is probably responsible for the deaths of 400, 000 and the displacement of 1.5 million.

Why is Abbas even in Sudan no less cuddling up to Al Bashir?
This visit raises all the wrong questions about the agenda of the Palestinian leader. He need not visit and he need lend support, he could just be silent.
Most of the Arab and Muslim world has stood silent about Darfur.
Now the Palestinian leader has embraced the leader of Sudan, a member of the illustrious group that includes Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

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US-Egypt-Israel-PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the US and Egypt have begun their summit in Washington DC the United States can pressure the Palestinians and the Israelis to begin their dialogue. At least, that's the word from State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley who made the announcement at the conclusion of an hour long meeting between Hillary Clinton and Hosni Mubarak.

To quote Crowley: "We're trying to work hard to create conditions for negotiation to continue and we hope to have this phase of this process completed in the next few weeks."
Now that is a pretty optimistic timetable.

The Palestinians have said they will not come to the table unless there is a total stoppage of building.
The Israelis believe that a total stop to building is unrealistic.

Mubarak threw another monkey wrench into the equation today.
Mubarak said that The Arab world will only make its gesture of recognizing Israel or of even warming relations towards Israel after a final peace treaty is signed.
That will not go over well in Jerusalem and it was hard for Washington to hear.

There was serious expectation that Arab relations towards Israel would be thawing. That thaw would be presented to Israel as a way to urge them on to make real concessions towards the Palestinians.
That whole scenario looks very unlikely right now.

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Mubarak Goes to DC
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is in Washington, DC.
This is Mubarak's third face to face with Obama, but it his first trip to the White House trip in five years.

The agenda is obvious and the issues are big.
Throughout the week Mubarak will meet with senior Obama people.
On Tuesday he is scheduled to meet with the president.
He is also supposed to meet with the leaders of 8 Jewish organizations in what is being termed a closed door session.

Mubarak has been in power since 1981, he is 81 years old.
He is a gifted, charming, politician and an exceptional international diplomat.

Mubarak understands that he has something to offer and he wants things in return. He is working hard and making sure that everyone knows he is the lynchpin of the Middle East - working hard for regional stability and working hard to diminish if not quite extinguish Islamic extremism and terror.

Mubarak wants to continue to get his $28 billion in US financial humanitarian and military aid. Most importantly he does not want that aid linked to the liberalization of his autocratic dictatorial regime.

Mubarak knows how to play the game.

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A Jew is on Trial in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is undergoing change.
It is our job to monitor those changes carefully.

Today is the last of three trials of people arrested for post-election violence.
Over one hundred people have already been tried in the first two trials.
Twenty five people stand in the docket today.
One of those people is a Jew.

The man, 19 year old Yaghoghil Shaolian, is quoted by his lawyer as saying that he is neither a member of a group nor did he participate in the protest movement. He does admit to throwing stones at a bank.

There are about 25,000 Jews who still live in Iran.
In 2000 there was a show trial of 13 Jews accused of being Israeli agents.
Today’s events have the potential to explode into a series of other charges orchestrated to publicly rally Iranians.
The Iranian government wants to channel the ire of the public away from the government and give it a new focus.

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Historic Day in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was a truly historic day in Iran.

Yesterday, a letter was sent to the Assembly of Experts by several (it is not known how many and who they are) former parliamentarians asking for an investigation of The Supreme Leader and his role in the elections and in the torture of protestors while they were in prison.
The letter asked that The Supreme Leader be removed from office.

The Supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts which is composed of 86 Mujtahids, or great religious scholars. In theory, the Assembly may remove The Supreme Leader - as they did once in 1985 during Ayatollah Khomeini's lifetime. At that time they chose Montazeri to be Khomeini's successor. In 1989 the Assembly changed that decision and that is how the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, assumed the position after the death of Khomeini.

The Assembly of Experts is elected every 8 years.
This Assembly will sit until 2015.
The Assembly leader is Rafsanjani.

The Supreme leader is all powerful in Iran. His word is the final word on all issues. The people recognize The Supreme Leader to be untouchable and that is why during the unrest in the streets that followed the election, the people called for the removal of Ahmadinejad, but not of The Supreme Leader.

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Al Qaeda targets Kuwait
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Kuwait, the 4th largest oil producer in the world, has thwarted an al Qaeda plot to blow up one of their largest refineries located in Shuaiba.

The attack was supposed to take place during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. The plan was to attack several important sites in addition to the refinery including a US military base and the Kuwaiti security headquarters.
Six members of an al Qaeda cell were arrested.

There is a lot for us to learn from these arrests.
Al Qaeda has pinpointed Ramadan as a very important month for targeting.

Kuwait is taking this plot very seriously.
Kuwait is just as much in the cross hairs of al Qaeda as is the West.

Most important and most crucial of all the lessons we can learn is this:
the best way to stop attacks from happening is through good, reliable, intel.

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Iran Outsmarts Us Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

At the International Atomic Energy Agency general conference planned for next month Iran will be proposing a resolution.
Iran will propose that any strike against a nuclear plant be determined illegal and be internationally condemned by the IAEA.

The motivation for the Iranian proposal is obvious.
Iran wants to make certain that should Israel strike at their nuclear sites there will be international condemnation.
Iran claims that this resolution is about making nuclear technology safe and about making certain that civilians are not injured in attacks against nuclear sites.
Iran claims that they are not concerned about Israel and that there is nothing selfish or self motivating about this resolution.

Iran is brilliant in proposing this resolution.
The majority of the 150 members of the IAEA will support the resolution.
Most IAEA members are dead set against using military force to deal with any conflict - especially a nuclear conflict.

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Egypt Praises Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iranian news ran story after story about the congratulatory wishes sent by Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

INRA, the Iranian national news agency, carried a glowing report on how Mubarak blessed Ahmadinejad on his new second term as president.

The Egyptian press, on the other hand, was totally silent on the matter. No official spokesman was able to confirm that indeed Mubarak had bestowed such praise on the Iranian leader.

There has been a tumultuous past between these two Muslim countries, no real love is lost between them. An endorsement from Mubarak, however, would certainly help solidify the Iranian leader's standing and further secure his position not only at home but also in the greater Muslim world.

Those in the know, know, that Iran cannot invent Egyptian support.
Somewhere in the grand palaces of Egypt along the Nile some very important aide related the president's message of support to the Iranians.

This is another sign that the cold relations between Egypt and Iran are slowly thawing.
And that frightens me.

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Shalit Deal is Very Close
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 10, 2009

I'm Predicting:

Talks designed to free Gilad Shalit, the kidnapped Israeli soldier held captive by Hamas forces for the past 1143 days, seem to have seriously intensified over the past week.
At least, that is the report coming from an Islamic Jihad website coming out of Gaza - and it is a report I am inclined to believe.

Ever since Shalit was taken hostage in a cross border attack, talks have been stalled, railroaded and stopped.
Now Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is urging Israel to make decisions on a list Hamas has put together naming the prisoners they want released in return for the release of Shalit. And Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader of Gaza, paid a clandestine visit to Cairo urging Mubarak to urge Israel even further on.

The report says that Hamas is just waiting for Israel to agree to the list.
The report also says that Israeli President Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Barak met on Friday to review the list.

I'm predicting that Israel will nix one or two of the names on the now infamous list.
When that happens, Hamas will be left with two alternatives.
Hamas can accept the changes Israel is asking for and release Shalit.
Hamas can reject the name changes and discontinue the negotiations.

It all depends on Egypt and how forceful Egypt is with Hamas.

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The Most Dangerous Man in DC
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian newspapers are laying the ground work for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's trip to Washington, DC.

The papers are debating Obama's Middle East policy.
They are writing about power and interests in DC.
They are discussing how and if Egypt and the Arab world have new power and pull with the US president.

One paper, however, is taking a different approach.
The Egyptian newspaper Al Akhbar has done a profile on the person they declare to be "the most dangerous man in Washington."
Who is that person?
His name is Michael Oren.
He is Israel's new ambassador to Washington.

Al Akhbar believes that Oren is dangerous because he is very active, because he has access and because he is, all around, very comfortable in Washington. He is able to make inroads.

Al Akhbar believes that Oren can reinvigorate the Israel US relationship that has been on the ropes. That Egyptian paper is concerned that Israel's ambassador will do a disservice to Arab interests.

Honestly now, what should be the objective of the Israeli Ambassador to Washington?
The objective is to serve the mission of Israel.
Al Akhbar is nervous because Ambassador Oren is doing his job and doing it well.

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Israel Exports Apples to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is in a state of war with Syria.
There have been third party overtures to iron out some issues that may lead to negotiations that may lead to formalizing relations - but Israel and Syria are in a state of war.

So isn't it surprising to learn that Israel exports food to Syria.
And Israel is increasing those exports to help elevate the food shortage in Syria brought on by the drought.

The most important food export from Israel to Syria is the apple crop grown by the Druze communities in the north of Israel. Israel's Minister of Agriculture recently visited the largest Druze community and informed them that his ministry will authorize expanding their exports to Syria.

Not only will Syria benefit, this is a tremendous boost to the Druze community. The Syrian border is so close to Druze orchards that transport costs are practically nil. The profit margin will increase tremendously. And Israeli Druze will play a significant role in helping to feed the Druze communities in Syria which is a psychological as well as financial boon - Druze families are actually split on either side of the border.

Despite, or perhaps in spite, of the state of war, this is a winning plan for everyone.

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Fatah Conference
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have been paying close attention to the goings-on at the Fatah Conference in Bethlehem, the first conference since 1989 and the first since the death of Arafat.

Before the Fatah Conference began it was understood that the objective was to elect new leadership and to establish an agenda. The goals of the conference were to solidify Fatah's centrality to the Palestinian electorate and to sideline Hamas.

So far, most of the Conference far has been fraught with internal bickering, jockeying for power and jockeying for political positions.
Almost no decisions have been made and those that have been made are, quite frankly, ludicrous.
For instance, it was unanimously decided to blame Israel for Arafat's death and to establish an international inquiry.
Arafat died in 2004, there have already been a series of inquiries into his death including a Fatah inquiry.

The Fatah delegates can agree on only one point.
Whatever the problem, Israel is to blame.
What a shame.

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King Tells Abbas to Unite
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:
The Saudi Press Agency, the official arm of the king, pasted a very interesting news item yesterday.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia sent a cable to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on the occasion of the Fatah Conference taking place in Bethlehem.
King Abdullah urged the Palestinians to unite saying that internal conflicts between Palestinians have done much more harm than "decades of Israeli aggression."
King Abdullah went on to say that if the entire world supported the idea of a Palestinian state it still could not be created because of the disunity among the Palestinians.

This is a damning critique of Palestinian leadership and vision.
This one cable makes it abundantly clear just how little respect the Saudis and other Arabs have for the Palestinians and their disdain for the infighting and killing in which Palestinian sects are engaging.

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Leonard Cohen's Concert Sells Out
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Leonard Cohen's concert in Israel on September 24th sold out in just a few hours.
47,000 tickets were sold between Saturday night and Sunday.

The theme of the concert is coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.

The 47,000 Israelis who grabbed up the tickets are just part of a much larger society, a society that aspires to that very goal of coexistence.

Leonard Cohen was planning on holding a concert in Ramallah on the same theme. Palestinian outrage forced the concert organizers to cancel. According to the Palestinians, coexistence implies that Israelis have a claim, it implies that the Israeli narrative might be correct. That was unacceptable to the Palestinian masses and to Palestinian leaders.

One has to ask the question: Is it possible that one side does not want peace?

If the answer is yes, what is it that the Palestinians really do want?

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Islamic Revolt Nearly 1000 Dead in Nigeria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 2, 2009

I've Been thinking:

Nearly 1,000 Nigerians have been killed over the past few days.

The killing is a result of a coup d'etat initiated by a radical Islamic group called Boko Haram. This group wants to transform Nigeria into an Islamic state, they want the state to run according to Shaaria, Islamic law.
Most of the fighting is taking place in the Northern section of Nigeria.

Nigeria, with a population of 148 million, is the most populous nation in Africa.
Nigeria is a black African nation off the West Coast of Africa, it borders Chad.
Nigeria has a history of take-overs, but since 1999 it has been governed as a pseudo-democracy and significant efforts have been made to stem corruption.

Right now, a lot of people have killed and the number of killed will continue to rise.
This insurgence will not be well covered in the press and the tensions that underlie the violence will not even be raised.

Islamic movements are on the rise.
We must monitor them carefully

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Conflict within Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Nearly 2000 delegates from all over the world are descending on Bethlehem for a conference.
It is the first Fatah conference to be held in 20 years and it will convene on Tuesday.
It is very likely that the future leadership of Fatah and the future of the Palestinian political movement will be determined by the participants at this conference.

Israel has granted visas for almost all the Fatah delegates from Gaza to attend. Hamas, however, will not let these Fatah members leave Gaza.
There is an inner conflict going on between Palestinian factions and Hamas wants to sabotage the Fatah convention.
Many of the 500 Gaza delegates are smuggling themselves out, some dress as women others are dressed to look like religious clergy.

The Gaza border has several check points.
The first checkpoint is Hamas controlled.
100 yards further is controlled by Fatah, they radio the Israelis giving advance details of the people crossing into Israel.
The next 100 yards is called "no man's land" and then comes the Israeli crossing.

Hamas is imprisoning Fatah Palestinians. They will let no one out until 900 of their prisoners are released from Fatah jails.
We hear about how Israel is turning Gaza into a virtual prison and about all the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Here we have another perfect example of the inner Palestinian conflict.

Inner conflict is the norm for Palestinians.

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Muslims Seek Refuge in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 31, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Sudan and Eritrea are Muslim countries.
Israel is a Jewish state.
Every day about 500-600 illegal immigrants Sudan and Eritrea enter Israel.
They cross over from Egypt into Israel.

These refugees leave their Muslim homes, sneak across dangerous borders into other Muslim countries and then illegally smuggle themselves into Israel.
These refugees trek through deserts so that they can escape to the democratic, Zionist, safe haven.

Israel wants to keep these illegal refugees out of the central part of Israel, but Israel is not murdering them as is often done in the countries they pass through and the countries they called home.
None of the people entering Israel can return home and so they are legally categorized as refugees.

Figure it out.
They are Muslims who grow up and live in countries that are rabidly anti-Israel and anti-Zionist and yet, each day, hundreds of them are willing to risk their lives by leaving their homes and smuggling themselves into the Jewish state.

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Non Stop Visitors to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem looked like it had a revolving door policy this week as a series of very high level US officials came dropping by and then headed off.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited to talk about Iran.
US Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell talked about the Palestinians and about Iranian nuclear threats.

Now visiting Jerusalem is National Security Adviser James Jones and his 15 member team to talk further about Iran and the Palestinians.
The national security adviser's team includes Dennis Ross and William Burns.
This is what we call "piling on."

In my entire career I do not remember a week so full of US dignitaries in Israel.
They came to Jerusalem with two objectives in mind.
# 1: to make certain that Israel does not attack Iran on its own
# 2: to underscore the Administration's stand on no natural growth in the settlements

What Washington does not understand is that they are trying to fit a round peg in a square hole. It doesn't matter how many people come to Jerusalem, the Israelis will not be convinced that the United States can control Iran.

Actually, it's the opposite. The more people the US sends, the more obvious it becomes just how powerless the US really is against Iran.
If the United States had control over Iran, the United States would be putting the squeeze on Iran, not on Israel.

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Busy Meetings in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Not only was President Obama's Special Envoy George Mitchell in Israel yesterday, but so was US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

Israel's political leadership is often so busy meeting foreign dignitaries and world Jewish leaders that it is a true modern day miracle that they have time left over to deal with their own issues and lead the country.

Gates finished up in Jerusalem and hopped over to Amman, Jordan to talk about Israel and Iran.
The secretary of defense told the Jordanians that Israel and the UN are, more or less, on the same page.
Gates made it clear that the Obama administration is not toying with Iran and if Iran balks at the US overtures there will increased sanctions against Iran.

The only problem with Gates' approach is that it wastes a great deal of time.
The process of reinventing the wheel and realizing that Iran's behaviors have nothing to do with United States policy towards them and everything to do with the fact that they choose to be that way has set back a serious program and taken away the momentum that had gathered before Obama stepped into office.

European diplomats are frustrated with the United States’ very strange approach to Iran. Europeans hope that Obama learns his lessons quickly - before the United States looses all credibility on all issues Iranian.

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Things are Happening in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Two very important events took place in Egypt yesterday.
You will probably not read about them in the world press, but each event has significant implications for the region.

# 1: At the request of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, George Mitchell, Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, moved up his scheduled trip to the region. Rather than arriving on Tuesday, he arrived on Sunday.
It seems that there are important issues at stake between Hamas and the PA, issues that cannot wait.
Mitchell arrived in Egypt via Syria and will be meeting in Jerusalem and Ramallah on Monday and Tuesday.

# 2: A special Egyptian security court dedicated to terror and espionage charged 26 people with joining a Hezbollah plot to blow up ships as they passed through the Suez Canal.
Had the plot not been thwarted, the entire Egyptian economy would have been destroyed. Egypt knows that Iran and Hezbollah were together in plotting these potentially devastating attacks.

All of this bears watching.
Careful watching.

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Facebook Takes Down Hamas Site
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Facebook broke one of its own long standing, ironclad rules and took down a page because of its content.

Facebook took down Ismail Haniyah's page.
Haniyah is the Hamas Prime Minister in charge of Gaza.
Haniyah's page had 10,000 members.

According to the report in the Arabic newspaper Al Hayat, members were given no reason for the page coming down, but assumed the page was taken down because of Israeli and US pressure. They assumed the same pressure will probably be applied to other Palestinian sites, especially to the Facebook page of Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal. Hamas is a terror organization.

Since it inception Facebook has maintained that they own the content and that they do not edit or stand in the way of anyone's First Amendment right to freely express themselves - even if the content is offensive.

Facebook and vehicles like Facebook spread information and galvanize ideas.
This change is dramatic.

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Friday Sermon in Iran Makes Demands on Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

This week's major Friday sermon in Teheran was delivered by The Ayatollah Sayid Mohammed Khatami.
Khatami, who was president of Iran from 1997-2005, took the opportunity to criticize Ahmadinejad and tell him that he should fire his 1st deputy vice president Rahim Mashaie.

Khatami made his point because The Supreme Leader, The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, wants him to - and conformity to religious authority is a central part of Iranian politics.

It is important to know that before Mousavi became a serious presidential candidate, the chief reformist candidate was Khatami.
Khatami choose to step out of the running so as not to split the vote.
And now, once again, Khatami is in keeping in line with the party/political/religious line, adhering to the political and religious authority of The Supreme Leader.
That is the way things are in Iran.

It is interesting and perhaps even ironic to note that Ahmadinejad is trying to carve out some independence for himself and for his position. We saw some of this toward the end of his previous tenure.
Ahmadinejad is trying to create a political counter balance to The Supreme Leader.
But there is no place for that independence in Iranian politics and Ahmadinejad will soon be slapped back into place.

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Israel's Anti Nuke Test Fails
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Arrow II is Israel's answer to Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Yesterday the Arrow II failed to engage three times when it was tested off the coast of California.

The United States sent up a fake Shabbab missile.
The missile was a weapon that mimics Iran's best nuclear technology.
Everyone waited for the Israeli secret weapon to launch and strike down the attacking ordinance. And waited.

The Arrow detected the missile, but did not launch to destroy it.
Why? Because all the variables were not met.
The system that failed is supposed to prevent a misfire - when a computer shoots down a commercial airline jet.

The Iranians must be in 7th heaven.
Analysts and decision makers in Iran have to be elated.
Now Iran has no realistic check against their nuclear development.
Now the situation for Israel is bad, very bad.

Israel now knows that it has absolutely no significant tool to threaten Iran.
That means the balance sheet that had Israel able to stave off Iran is nowhere close to accurate.

That means the West is in real trouble and that Israel is on the front line.

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Catch -22 Fatah Conference
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On August 4th Fatah will hold a convention in the city of Bethlehem.
This will be the first Fatah Convention since Arafat's death - actually, there have been no Fatah conventions in over a decade.

A big, bold line will be drawn dividing those Fatah members who support the Fatah run Palestinian Authority government that recognizes Israel- and the reset of Fatah.
Mohammed Dahlan made the point very clear on Palestinian TV.
Rafik al-Natsheh, a senior Fatah official seconded the motion saying that Fatah will not recognize Israel.
He said:
"We will maintain the resistance option in all its forms and we will not recognize Israel" ... "Not only don't we demand that anyone recognize Israel, we don't recognize Israel ourselves. However, the Palestinian Authority government is required to do it, or else it will not be able to serve the Palestinian people."

Al Natsheh is explaining the catch-22 by which the Fatah government must live.
Because the PA government needs international support, they must recognize Israel.
But, he is also pointing out that non-governmental Fatah is not obligated in the same way - they are neither required to recognize Israel nor to give up the resistance against Israel.
And we all know that resistance is just a euphemism for terror.

This conference opens the door on an entirely new set of issues for the US and Israel. I am not certain that the White house will be briefed on the importance of nuance in Middle East politics and language.
In many ways, on Pennsylvania Avenue, ignorance is bliss.

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Swiss Embrace Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

For some time now, under the guise of impartiality, Switzerland has hidden a very biased agenda.
On Sunday, Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy Rey revealed that bias.

The Swiss foreign minister put it bluntly: "Hamas is a major player in the Middle East and cannot be ignored."
And let us not forget that only a few months ago Switzerland invited and gave a warm welcome to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The Swiss claim that their diplomatic behavior is impartial.
What the Swiss are really doing is embracing these negative forces and lending them credibility.
By engaging with Hamas and by speaking to them diplomatically, the same way they would speak to any other country, Switzerland raises Hamas from the status of terror organization to the status of "major player."

The Swiss are not interested in being impartial.
The Swiss are interested in advancing their agenda.
The Swiss agenda is in reality anti-establishment, anti-West and anti-United States.

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All or Nothing Can't Work
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomacy is all about compromise.
The "all or nothing" variety of diplomacy rarely leads to success.
On the contrary, it leads to a breakdown in communication and the end of dialogue.

Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador in Washington, was summoned to a meeting with State Dept. officials over the weekend.
Oren was there because plans are underway to turn the Shepherd hotel in East Jerusalem, located only a few yards away from Israel's National Police Headquarters, into housing units.
Arab demands on settlements are not new, but they are to be viewed as opening positions for negotiations, not as absolutes.

The hotel was bought legally and publicly.
The plans were passed by the City Council.
The location is Jerusalem, albeit East Jerusalem.
East Jerusalem is not a settlement, it was annexed in 1967 after the Six Day War.

The Israeli Ambassador explained it all but to know avail.
For the Obama Administration, like for the Arab world, no building means no building. When Oren insisted that Jerusalem, Israel's capital, is different the State Department repeated their stance, "no means no", and "no", Jerusalem is not different.

Absolutes are deeply problematic stances.
Absolutes refuse to consider nuance.
Nuance has been the foundation of many agreements in the modern Middle East.

Saying "no" to the Shepherd Hotel project might win points for the Administration in the Arab world. But if the real objective is to advance a peace initiative this absolute demand will cause the failure of Obama's "glorious peace plan."

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Barenboim and Cohen are Cancelled in Ramallah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Leonard Cohen and Daniel Barenboim are music legends.
They are also political activists.

Both Cohen and Barenboim believe in Israel's right to exist and they both support the creation of a Palestinian state.
Both had scheduled events in Ramallah and both cancelled their events.
They cancelled because local Palestinian authorities refused to acknowledge that these two Jews could, at the same time, give credence to Israel and support the Palestinian cause - because they are advocates of dialogue between Palestinian and Israelis.

Palestinian leadership snuffed out the cultural performances of two of the greatest musical personalities of the 21st century.
For Palestinian leadership it was a question of all or nothing, with no room for compromise.
Leonard Cohen and Daniel Barenboim, musical geniuses, chose not to go to Ramallah because they feared for their lives.

There is little hope for a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians when the Palestinians refuse to recognize someone because he recognizes Israel.

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Jews Meet with Obama
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Representatives and leaders of 15 American Jewish organizations met with President Barack Obama on Monday.
The meeting was convened in the hope of quelling the tensions that continue to surge between Jewish communal leadership in the United States and the Administration about Israel - principally about the issue of settlements.

When asked by the Jewish leaders to tone down the disagreement in public, President Obama refused. The president said it was a failed tactic during the Bush Administration and that he must speak bluntly and honestly to Israel.

Obama added that Israel must do some "serious self reflection."
That is a polite and patronizing way of saying we know better and you should search your soul and come to the same conclusion to which we have come.
Obama suggested that brutal honesty reflects American Jewry's perspective on the issue.

When the conversation came around to Iran the president said he was open to dialogue with the Iranians and that the "door was open." He used the same metaphor at the G-8 when he said "they have to decide to walk through it."

Before the meeting concluded Barack Obama described himself as a "true friend."
The direction of Israeli US diplomacy has not really moved forward as a result of this meeting, but at least the president was willing to grant the group a meeting.

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Obama and Ghadaffi?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Unites States quelled the more severe sanctions against Iran that Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi proposed at the G-8 Summit.
That went just as I had predicted.

There is something else, however, about the G-8 that disturbs me.
Something that has gotten almost no press in the United States.

President Obama shook hands with Libyan dictator Muammar Ghadaffi.
And then Obama sat almost next to Ghadaffi at dinner, separated only by Berlusconi.

Ghadaffi has been the dictator of Libya for four decades, ever since 1969.
Ghadaffi has never met a US president - and there is a reason for that.
Yes, Ghadaffi met Condi Rice when she was secretary of state, but secretary of state is not president and that was done as part of the thawing of diplomatic relations.

Those relations are still in the thawing process - they are not warm and not yet at the stage where leaders should act as if they are friends.
There is a vast diplomatic chasm between thawing relations and warm relations.
There is a time and a place for first meeting and hand shakes.
Those formalities should be orchestrated based on behavior, diplomatic necessities and priorities.

The President of the United States should not have been so friendly and so close to the Libyan thug.
For more on Ghadaffi, look him up in my book THUGS.

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New Turkish TV Show
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A Turkish TV Station has really pushed the envelope.

Turkey is a Muslim country, it is also a democracy.

There are natural and understandable tensions between Islamic and secular leadership in Turkey.

Kanal TV is developing a reality show called "Penitents Compete."

On the show a Priest, an Imam, a Rabbi and a Monk all compete to convince a non-believer to convert to their religion.

The practicalities are proving to be a little complicated.
The Turkish Ministry of Religion has thus far refused to provide an Imam.

The producers are interviewing and scrutinizing potential participants.
They need make certain the participants are actually secular and not just trying to get the money or prove that their religion is best.

The concept is brilliant.

The result should prove very interesting.

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Saudis Say Yes To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunday Times of London reported that Israel has secured permission from Saudi Arabia to fly over Saudi airspace if and when it was necessary to attack Iran.
The office of the Israeli Prime Minister denies this agreement.

Such an accommodation should not be a secret.
This plan has been in the works for a long time.
A year ago there were serious and reliable rumors that Israeli fighter aircraft were on the ground in Saudi air-force bases so that Israeli pilots could orient themselves to the Saudi terrain.

The most recent report asserts that the chief of Israel's Mossad, Meir Dagan, came to a very clear agreement with Saudi leadership about flying over Saudi Arabia.

This is significant not only diplomatically, but also practically and militarily.
If Israel uses Saudi airspace to attack Iran they do not need permission from the United States and they do not need US flight codes.
Israel would only need to fly south and quickly east into Saudi Arabia, across the Persian Gulf and into Iran.

Permission for Israel to use Saudi air space alleviates potential pressure that the US could apply on Israel not to act against Iran.

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Israel's Nuclear Subs
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has three nuclear submarines and several others on order.
The subs are Dolphin types made in German and specially "redesigned and refitted" for Israeli specifications.

"Redesigned and refitted" is a euphemism for making the tubes larger to accommodate nuclear missiles.

A dolphin sub recently participated in a drill in the Red Sea and docked in the Israeli port city of Eilat.

That was very unusual - the whereabouts of Dolphins are top secret, but this one was deliberately on display for anyone who cared to look.

Displaying the sub was such a tremendous change in policy that Muslim countries sat up and took notice.

The sub went through the Suez Canal which required advance permission from Egypt and meant that the nuclear sub was un-submerged.

Never before had an Arab country, knowingly, been so close to an Israeli nuclear submarine.

The real message was directed at Iran.

Iran needs to know that Israeli subs are real and ready to enter the battle arena. Iran needs to know that Israeli subs have range and have both conventional and non conventional tools for battle.

Israel wanted Iran to see their submarine.

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Bad Guys Aim for July 4th
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

July 4th took place on a Saturday this year.
That proved problematic for haters of the United States.
Attacking over the week-end receives very little bang for the buck when it comes to news coverage.

Those people plotting to destroy America found a resolution to their problem
They rounded off the date.
They chose the week of July 4th, rather than the day.

That explains why the North Koreans launched their test missiles on the Saturday of the long weekend - so that it would get proper coverage.
They did not do enough research, however, because Friday and Saturday was part of the long weekend so they really only got partial coverage.

That explains why a McDonalds was blown up in downtown Athens, Greece over the weekend.
The attack was in the business district and clearly an anti-American move.
There was significant damage but no deaths.
The attack was probably perpetrated by far left extremists in Greece.

The lesson here is that for those who despise America, significant dates are obvious targets.
It is essential that we remember that these haters will round off the dates to make it easier for themselves and to maximize the newsworthiness of their attack.

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July 4th Messages from Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President Barack Obama received a telegram from President Bashar Assad of Syria on Friday July 3rd.
It was a celebratory telegram wishing Obama a happy Independence Day.

A copy of the text was published in the Syrian press on Friday.
The text of this telegram was completely out of character with the characterizations of the United States usually printed in Syrian national newspapers.

Assad not only wished the president of the United States a happy holiday but lathered on serious compliments that are most out of character for the for Syrian President. Assad went so far as to refer to Obama as a president who has the values the world needs today.

Assad is playing a very new and different game.
It is a very positive game and a very unpredictable one.
It is easier to predict what Syria will do when Syria always says "no" and every so often means "yes."
It is much harder to predict Syria when the say "yes" and really mean "no."

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US Will Stop G-8 Sanctions on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A G-8 Summit meeting will take place next week in Europe.
This will be a hot one with a discussion on Iran occupying a central spot on the agenda.

Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi will propose increasing sanctions against Iran.
The Europeans are particularly peeved at Iran since the aftermath of the June 12th election there.
The big news is that it looks like the United States will block Italy's sanction move.

Strange, but true. Here's why:
The natural allies of Iran in the G-8 are China and Russia.
China and Russia can sometimes be convinced that Iran needs to be sent a message to improve and/or change.
But China and Russia will never budge if the United Sates is in their court.

This move by the United States is part of the new foreign policy agenda that the United States is putting into action toward Iran and the Middle East.

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Hamas Plots Hit on Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority arrested several more Hamas members today.
This was the follow up to a group of arrests from last week.
This is not politics, these are real arrests.

Hamas was plotting to assassinate Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority.
They had plans to attack PA institutions.
They had an entire hit list of people to eliminate.

Abbas made reference to it all in an interview over the weekend on European TV.
Hamas leadership denies the plots.
Those who were arrested have confessed.
They say the motivation for the hits was to scuttle the PA/Hamas agreements that were in the works in Egypt.

One question remains: are the attempted assassinations enough to ruin the relationship.

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African Summit
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The 13th African Union Summit convened yesterday in Libya.

Gathered together are the leaders of many African countries and special invitees like Chavez of Venezuela.
The host of the Summit, Libya's Muammar Ghadaffi, is also the head of the African Summit.

Several notable invitees and members will not attend.
Berlusconi of Italy will not attend.
Mubarak of Egypt will not attend.
Ahmadinejad of Iran will not attend.

Topics to be discussed include: coups, global warming, drought and the environment, civil wars and the world economic downturn.

I want to see how these leaders approach several issues: the recent elections in Iran, Obama's new attitude to the Muslim world and the Palestinian/Israel peace initiative.

I am watching the proceedings very closely.
I am curious, very curious.

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Iran's Power Structure
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Guardian Council in Iran confirmed yesterday that the June 12th elections will stand and that the partial recount and the investigations into all the irregularities did not change the outcome of the election.
None of this should have come as a surprise.

The Guardian Council is one of the two most important councils in Iran. It is composed of 12 people - 6 are appointed by the Supreme Leader, 6 are chosen by the parliament.
Members presented to parliament are nominated by the head of the Judicial, who is also appointed by The Supreme Leader.

The Assembly of Experts is the second most powerful council in Iran.
The Assembly of Experts is a group of 86 people required to meet at least twice a year for at least two days.
The Assembly of Experts appoints The Supreme Leader. In theory, they could also remove The Supreme Leader.

According to Iranian law, in order to be a member of either the Guardian Council or the Assembly of Experts, one must be a religious expert.
Several of the reformists running for position in this past election called for a reformation of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts as part of their political platform.

It was an unacceptable stance.
One of the leaders of the reform is The Ayatollah Rafsanjani and he is the head of one of the councils.
Rafsanjani certainly does not want any limits put on his power.
Rafsanjani is also the leader of another council, the Expediency Council, which makes him the only significant check to both The Supreme Leader and president Ahmadinejad.

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Powder Keg in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There was a shootout between Sunnis and Shiites in West Beirut, Lebanon, yesterday.

The conflict was between groups aligned with the future prime minister and groups aligned with the speaker of the parliament.

In the election that took place in Lebanon last month Sunni supporters defeated Shiite supporters.

Now tensions are on the rise.

Shiites and Sunnis are staking out their turfs.
A 30 year old woman was killed and 3 others were injured in the shootout.

One of the injured was actually one of the shooters.
Reports said that only small arms fire was used in the shootout.

When we read small arms, we think pistols.
In Lebanon, small arms include automatic rifles aka machine guns, mortars and rockets.

Beirut is a powder keg.
Literally.

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Syria is Dirt Poor
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian newspaper Al Watan reports that 20% of Syrian families have no income.
That 3.5 million people in Syria are starving.
That 160 villages have been abandoned and the villagers have come to the cities to seek help.
That the abandoned villages are farming villages and nothing grows in Syria because of a drought.

Syria is suffering from horrific economic conditions, even without the consequences of the drought.
The cost of energy and food is hurting Syrians terribly.
The average monthly salary per Syrian household is $250, that's $3000 per year.

Syria is an autocratic dictatorship ruled by an Alowite minority that controls its citizens through a ruthless security police. President Assad stays in power by virtue of the power of his army.

It is very difficult to predict the actions and behaviors of a country so severely, economically, stressed.
It is precisely because Syria is under such pressure that the Syrians are so carefully watching what happens in Iran and playing games of cat and mouse with the United States and Israel over peace talks.

Syria wants the benefits granted to more open societies and governments.
Syria does not want to give up the strong arm tactics and control that closed nations wield.

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FIFA Is Upset with Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

FIFA is up in arms with Iran.
FIFA is the Federation Internationale de Football Association.

Fact is, more Iranians watch soccer than go to mosque.
And evidently, the four Iranian soccer players who wore green wristbands in support of the protestors have been removed from the Iranian national team.

That game was broadcast across the world and everyone saw the Iranian team defeat South Korea in the qualifying rounds for the World Cup.
Unfortunately, Iran was later bounced out of the running because Saudi Arabia drew against North Korea.

FIFA received a letter informing them that Iran had punished the players.
FIFA asked for clarification.
The Iranian Football Association responded by saying no one was punished.
Of course, it is difficult to challenge the Iranians assertion - we all know that there are transparent democratic agencies in Iran.

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Michael Jackson Tops Arab Headlines
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, two icons, Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett, died.
And a United States governor, Mark Sanford, grabbed headlines because he admitted, publicly, to a lurid extramarital affair.

Yesterday, also, former United States president Jimmy Carter announced that Hamas should be removed from the terror list.
And unofficial reports from Iran declared that seven people were killed by police and Mousavi was put under house arrest.

What made headline news in the Arab world?
The deaths of Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett.

In the Middle East, pop culture trumps local events.
That is something worth thinking about.

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The Arab World & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

As the tensions in Iran rise and fall, so goes the rest of the Middle East.

The countries of the Middle East had no illusion as to what Iran was and what Iran stood for, it was just more expedient, safer, to ignore it.
Now that Iran is changing before their eyes, they are openly expressing shock.
Shock because Iran was the voice challenging the West.
Shock because Iran was the voice challenging the US and Israel.
Shock because Iran was so haughty and so sanctimonious.

All along, the verbal critique hurled by Iran at the rest of the world was a political and religious maneuver.
Iran's voice was a lie.
Iran was simply painting the West as an evil anti-Muslim monster in order to give itself gravitas. Those verbal attacks lent Iran leadership power despite the fact that the Iranians are neither Arabs nor Sunni, merely Persians and Shiites.
Now, even those in the Middle East who sang the praises of Iranian leadership are massively disappointed.

The irony of it all is that no Arab Middle East state would have exercised the relative restrain that Iran is using. There could have been bloodbaths on the streets of Teheran but there aren't. There would have been bloodbaths on the streets of Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

The Arab world is beginning to speak out about Iran.
We must listen and monitor what they continue to say.

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Syria Calls For Quiet in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has called on Iranians to stop protesting and accept the results of their June 12th election.

Of course Syria is in favor of accepting the Iranian election.
Syria, like Iran, has a long history of rigging elections.
Syria wants to make certain that there are no surprises from Iran and the way to insure that is to make certain that the right person is chosen.
Syria is Iran's closest ally in the world and it is in Syria's best interests that the unrest in Iran stops immediately.

The people of Syria and the people of Iran have similar complaints about their leadership.
Syria would never have hesitated in cracking down on the protesters and would have crushed within hours, regardless of the international fallout.

When it comes to Iran, Syria has its own bias.

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Mossad Continues with Same Leadership
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 22, 2009,

I've Been Thinking:

Meir Dagan has been the head of the Mossad since 2002.
He has just been asked to continue to serve for another year.

This is a very important move on Israel's part.
Israel does not want to switch intelligence chiefs at this critical time.
The Mossad relies heavily on a combination of human intel and the creative interception and disruption of enemy activity.
The future of Israel, literally, depends on the decisions made by and the actions taken by the Mossad.

Dagan's main charge is to find a solution or two or three for the inevitable. To proactively respond to Iran's nuclear threat to wipe Israel off the map.
Of course there are plans in the work.

Dagan has been a very effective leader.
During his tenure the agency has doubled in size.
He successfully destroyed the Syrian nuclear power plant that was built by North Korea.
He coordinated the assassinations of major terrorists and attacks upon weapons convoys far from Israel's borders.

One of Dagan's main charges is to find a solution to the Iranian nuclear problem.
Israel must proactively respond to Israel's threat to wipe them off the earth.
Israel's response is in the works.

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Religious Conflict in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

When you look below the surface of the elections in Iran, you see the huge tension that exists between the two leading clerics.
The Supreme Leader, The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is pitted against the former president if Iran, The Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani.

They are political rivals and have been political rivals for some time.
They are both proteges of the founder of the Revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini.

Religiously they are cut of the same cloth.
What differentiates them is that Rafsanjani has taken a more pragmatic approach to the Islamic revolution while Khamenei has taken a more strict approach.
Parenthetically, Rafsanjani has been taken down a notch in this internal religious conflict. He is referred to as the "shark" a name he got because in politics he is positively ruthless.

Rafsanjani has sided with Mousavi and it is that combo of dynamic personalities that resonated on the streets of Iran as an anti-Ahmadinejad vote.
But it never had a chance.
Why? Because despite the fact the Rafsanjani is the head of two very important religious councils in Iran - he is not The Supreme Leader.

Therein lie the strength, the power and the end game.
Iran cannot and will not over throw Ahmadinejad because really, he is only a slight variation on the leadership theme of Mousavi.
In the end, all the players pay homage to the same vision and allegiance to the same principles.

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A Tradition of Rigged Elections
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Election irregularities in Iran have captured the hearts and imaginations of people around the world.
Some people demanding a recount are even expecting to get results from the investigations.
What these good hearted, well intentioned people don't understand is the problems involved in investigating rigged elections in dictatorships, especially religious dictatorships.

The theocratic leadership in Iran has promised to look into the over 600 irregularities and formal complaints that have been registered as a result of last week's election.
And odds are that there will be some superficial misconducts uncovered by the investigating committee.
But the real violations that are uncovered during this investigation will be errors and misconduct on the part of the reformers.

One example has already emerged. An email document announcing Mousavi's victory was found to be a fraud. It was sent on the Minister of the Interior's stationary.
Two people have been arrested.

Life in a religious dictatorship is life on a double edged sword.

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Fake Elections Are Common
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Fake elections are commonplace in the Middle East.

Most of the time thug regimes falsify results in order to better secure their positions.

Most of the time they are protecting themselves from religious fanatics who want to take over from the dictators.

Irony of ironies is that in the case of Iran, the exact opposite is taking place.

Religious extremists are using elections in the exact same way that their opponents do almost everywhere else in the Middle East.

Religious extremists are rigging the elections – just rigging them the other way.

In reality, it means nothing.
Elections are simply tools to prop up leadership.

In Iran today the rigging is clear and the results were clear from the start.

The problem is that even in dictatorships and theocracies the people sometimes want to feel that there is a slim chance for success.

The thugs running Iran miscalculated this time around.

They underestimated the need that people have ti feel that their voices matter - even in a theocratic dictatorship.

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Israel-US Tensions Over Settlements
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Avigdor Liberman, Israel's foreign minister, met with his US counterpart, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Their meeting typifies the new relationship between the United States and Israel.

Major tension emerged on the issue of settlements.
Clinton said that the Obama administration wants a total stop to settlements. Liberman said that it was an unrealistic demand. He said that people live and die in the settlements and that they cannot just freeze their lives.
Lieberman explained that Israel had come to a very clear understanding on this issue with the Bush administration.
Clinton said there is a possibility of working things out with Special Envoy George Mitchell.

There was agreement and there was disagreement on Iran.
The United States and Israel agreed that Iran is a threat. They disagree about approaching Iran and luring the Iranians into the civilized nations of the world.

Relations between Israel and the US are far from smooth.
Despite the tensions, hints are being dropped that there may be wiggle room and the possibility of compromise in the issue of settlements.
If that does happen, it will not happen anytime soon.

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The Wrong Perception About Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Today, in response to the first question asked asfter a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Burlisconi, President Obama talked about Iran.Once again, the president of the United States of America spoke as if Iran were a democracy.
Iran is not a democracy. Iran is not a democracy. Iran is not a democracy.
The record must be cleared.
White House advisors have got this all wrong. Iran is a theocracy. Iran is run by The Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah.
Obama sounds like he is referring to a Western European country when he discusses the democratic process in Iran. I quote: "And I want to start off by being very clear that it is up to Iranians to make decisions about who Iran's leaders will be; that we respect Iranian sovereignty..."
There's more: "I think that the democratic process -- free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent -- all those are universal values and need to be respected."
There is a synapse here.
Iranians went out to vote knowing all along that the Grand Ayatollah, not they, would be choosing the leader of Iran. Iranians are frustrated and fed up, but they are not fooled.
Why is Washington fooled?

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The Speech is Over, Now its Your Turn
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The much anticipated speech was given.
The responses came as expected.
Netanyahu spoke, everyone else responded.

The United States is hopeful.
Hamas rejects it.
The Palestinian Authority is offended.
Israelis are split.
The list goes on.

The most important part of the speech was the fact that Netanyahu gave the speech. He is now on record. The game is altered, a new set of rules is in play.

The Obama Administration applied significant pressure on Netanyahu and the Israeli PM caved on some big issues - the biggest is the Two State Solution. This was the issue that kept Kadima out of the Netanyahu coalition and forced him to sign on and embrace the more inflexible right wing parties.

By bowing to US pressure, Netanyahu earned some important credibility points. Now he waits, hoping that in turn, pressure will be brought upon the Palestinians.

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Only 1 Person's Vote Counts in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I shouted it as loud as I could, but it still wasn't loud enough.
Iran is not a democracy even though it is using the language of democracy.
Iran is not a democracy even though there were polling stations and people voted.
Iran is not a democracy.

On Saturday, The Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah made his decision.
On national television the Grand Ayatollah said that Iranians should throw their support behind Ahmadinejad.
He also called for calm.
He described the results as "divinely produced."
He was telling Iranians that the decision could not be challenged.

Yes, there is a risk of more civil unrest and violence in Iran especially as it becomes clear to gullible and naive voters that the fix was on from the beginning. But the statement of the Grand Ayatollah went a long way in reducing the tension among all but the most highly motivated, angered and frustrated dissenters. Those who persist in their opposition to the decision made by the Grand Ayatollah are taking their lives and the lives of their loved ones in their hands.

Why and how people actually believed that this could ever be a democratic election still befuddles me.

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Iran is not a Democracy!
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Both Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are claiming victory in Iran.

But what they say has as little import as the over 70% of the 46 million registered Iranians who came out to voter.
In Iran, only the Supreme Leader's vote counts.
The declaration naming the actual winner will take place sometime on Saturday.

This election was a huge growth experience for Iran.
It lent passion to politics.
It allowed the masses to give expression to their feelings and frustrations.
It allowed the people to voice their ideas about how Iran should behave internally and externally.

Iran is run by its religious council.
As observers we cannot and should not make the mistake of thinking that Iran is a democracy.
The language of democracy is being used in Iran today - words like voting and polls and opinion - but words alone are the trappings of democracy, not its essence.
In order to even receive permission run for office, the four candidates had to be vetted by the committee of The Supreme Leader. Hundreds were rejected.
The four candidates are all extremists and the only significant difference between them is the level of aggressiveness they use in discussing Israel and the West.

Everything in Iran is controlled by the religious council and The Supreme Leader controls and chairs the council.
They have the first say and the last say on everything that happens in Iran.
The role of the president is to serve as the mouthpiece of the religious council.

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Elections in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 12,2009

I've Been Thinking:

We are witness to a watershed in Iranian electoral politics.

It is no secret that Iran is not a true democracy, no matter what ruling Iranians call it.
But the fact remains that the winner of this election must - for the first time in Iranian history, consider the voice and the interests of the people.

There are no reliable polls in Iran.
Even if there were it would not matter - the president of Iran is truly chosen, not elected, by The Supreme Leader.

Western media is pulling for the reformers and sounding an optimistic note in the hope that The Supreme Leader will by swayed by their coverage.
The very fact that so many real people have gotten involved, gone to rallies and watched the debates, is a new and welcome phenomenon in Iran.

Whatever the final outcome of this election, Iran has taken a step toward democracy.

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DC Terror: Lone Wolf
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The attack that took place at the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C. is what I call "the act of a lone wolf."

A lone wolf is a person acting on his/her own.
A lone wolf may be marginally connected to a larger group, but perpetrates the act alone.
A lone wolf is nearly impossible to predict.
A lone wolf is nearly impossible to stop - the best defense is proper security at the site of the attack.

As a result of proper security and planning the only people at risk during this shooting in Washington were the guards.

That is what the way it is supposed to be during an attack.

We have experienced lone wolves before and we will become their targets again.

The lone wolf will attack specific high profile targets.

The primary threats are:
religious institutions - Jewish, Christian and Muslim
government agencies
schools
camps
school busses
public cultural and sporting events

We cannot stop these acts of terror, we can only minimize the death count and the destruction wreaked by the lone wolf.

On-site good security and on-site alertness are key.

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For Hezbollah the Loss is a Win
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have been analyzing the world of Hezbollah post Sunday's election in Lebanon.
For Hezbollah this election was actually a win - win situation.

If the Hezbollah block would have won the election, they would impose their issues on Lebanon top down. But they would have been uncomfortable. Hezbollah does not lead from the mainstream and cannot govern from the middle. Of course, no one would oppose their authority.

Now Hezbollah is in a very comfortable position. Because they are in the opposition they can attack the army. They can resist being disarmed and use any attempts against them as a battle cry for the loyal opposition. Hezbollah can instigate civil strife and incite near civil war. And even as a minority, Hezbollah still has total veto power over the government. That is what they did to the last government in Lebanon.

The up side in losing for Hezbollah is that they have the power to control, act, respond and sound off without any of the responsibility of government leadership.

The down side in losing for Hezbollah is that they intended to turn Lebanon into an Islamic state, like Iran.

The unfortunate reality is that the newly elected ruling party in Lebanon will not exert control over Hezbollah which means that, de facto, Hezbollah will have carte blanche to do whatever Hezbollah wants to do.

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West Defeats Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It appears as a bullet has been dodged in Lebanon.
Shiite Hezbollah and the pro-Syrian, pro-Iran coalition lost to the
pro-Western, Sunni coalition in yesterday's election.

The exact results are not in as of this writing, but Hezbollah has already conceded.
Certainly, Hezbollah can wreak havoc in the opposition.
Certainly, Hezbollah can attack the Lebanese army and government institutions and spurn government agreements.
But now the pro-Western Sunni/Christian alliance will be able to deal serious blows to Hezbollah whenever they violate the law and flaunt their rejection of Lebanon's international responsibilities.

One of the only responsibilities of a democracy is to self perpetuate.
In Lebanon, democracy has not learned that lesson.
The Lebanese people know how to vote, but the representatives they elect have always cringed for fear of civil war. That is how and why Hezbollah and its anti-democratic methods have been able to prevail in many parts of Lebanon.

Yesterday Hezbollah and by extension Iran and Syria were put in their proper place.
The people have spoken.
Lebanon must squash all anti-democratic violence and tolerate no intimidation.

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Obama Is Driving A Wedge Btw Jews
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President's Obama visited Buchenwald, the German concentration camp.
The president was accompanied by Elie Weisel, one of the most famous Holocaust survivors and the person largely responsible for keeping the memory alive by educating the world to the universal lessons and horror of the Holocaust.

There was method to Obama's visit to Buchenwald with Weisel, just as there was method to his Cairo speech.
Buchenwald served as an intimate connection to the president's visit in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Obama was only several miles from Israel when he visited Cairo - yet he chose not to visit. He was very critical of Israel calling the state an occupier and brutal oppressor. The very next day he goes to a German concentration camp and continues his thesis saying that those who forget the Holocaust are ignorant.
The criticism of Israel and shunning of Israel was counterbalanced by a visit with Weisel to Buchenwald.

Obama is attempting to drive a wedge between Israel and the Diaspora.
He embraced a basic universally accepted concept of the Holocaust - and rejected the deniers.
He used the Holocaust as a unifying concept - at the same time seriously criticizing Israel.
He is trying to show his respect for one holy cow - while desecrating the other.
He is driving a wedge between the Jews and the lovers of Israel - and critics of Israel.

Nothing Obama does is without purpose.
Everything Obama does is perfectly scripted.

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The Three Muslim Responses to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Obama speech was brilliantly crafted and exceptionally delivered.
The reception the speech received was the reception I expected it to receive.

The Muslim world was and still is divided into three unequal levels.
Level # 1 was excited by and about the speech.
They are also the smallest group.

Level # 2 couldn't care less.
No president of the United States can ever redeem the infidel and change America in their eyes.
They are the mid size group.

Level # 3 recognized that there was a change in tone in this speech, but tone is irrelevant to them. It is the "narrative" that is essential and this narrative cannot be changed by this or any other speech. This narrative is part of their mother's milk, it is their history, it is their collective memory.
They are the largest group, composed of the vast masses of the Islamic world.

Even if most of the Arab and Islamic world found the speech interesting, even if the speech was delivered by the first black president of the United States, it did not and cannot change anything. It is, after all, a speech. Words changed, but the "narrative" remains the same.

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Obama Selling His Soul
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Today President Obama stands in Cairo, addressing the Muslim world from an Arab capital.
The president of the United States of America will speak to his audience about misunderstandings and misapprehensions.

There is a certain irony to this scene.
Obama cannot push real democratic ideals from this spot. The soapbox he has chosen is one of the most notorious police states in the Arab world, it is a country that has no interest in liberalizing. And before arriving in Cairo, Obama visited Saudi Arabia, a monarchy that has shown almost no interest in democratic reforms.

Obama thinks he needs the Arab leaders. By embracing them and by embracing them on their playing field, he is accepting their terms -and their terms include the abuse of human rights.
The Bush administration had to sell its soul to the Arab leaders, too. But the previous administration received important counter terror intelligence in exchange. And even then the Americans were "asked" to butt out of internal Arab politics.

The Obama administration wants more than some info and intel. They want to transform the image of the United States in these areas and that means remaining mum on the thuggery inherent in the dictatorships and monarchies of the Middle East.

It is a mighty high price for a leading Western democracy to pay. And it is an even mightier disappointment for the many people of the region who are begging for and hoping that the United States under Obama will release them from their oppressive regimes and bring a ray of freedom and light.

What a shame, an all around shame.

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US Pressures Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors and speculation are darting back and forth across the Atlantic.

It seems that the Obama administration is beginning to apply pressure on Israel.
The assumption on Pennsylvania Avenue is that threatening to withdraw unconditional support for Israel will frighten Israelis and force the Israeli PM to capitulate and accept US demands.
It is a bold and untested thesis.

Here's the problem: what happens if the plan fails, what happens if it backfires?
The assumption is that a good relationship with the United States is more important than issues that threaten Israel's very existence.

Banking on that assumption is taking a very big gamble.
It is an assumption I would be wary to make.

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Rude Awakening in The MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

This weekend, a British newspaper announced that President Obama wants to see a resolution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict within two years.
Part of the idea calls for the Arab world to slowly normalize relations with Israel.

This is a very ambitious timetable.

Since this deadline was announced, there have already been sets backs.

Egypt has rejected the US idea of urging the Arab world to extend a hand to Israel in exchange for Palestinian peace.

If Egypt, a country with normalized relations with Israel, rejects the Obama initiative it is highly unlikely that any other Arab country will toe the US line.

The Palestinians have assumed a wait and see, not a get up and go approach - they are waiting to see what falls into place before moving ahead.

This is one conflict where forcing the issues to completion is very ill advised.
President Obama is in for a rude awakening.

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Hamas - Fatah Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 31, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Fierce gun battles between Fatah and Hamas in the West Bank town of Qalqilya today left at least 6 Palestinians dead.

These were not accidental conflicts.
For months Hamas has been preparing for conflict with Fatah in the West Bank and now they are forcing Fatah into clashes.
Hamas is painting a picture of Fatah as collaborators with Israel, claiming that the only reason Fatah is trying to stop Hamas activities is because of Israeli demands and expectations.

The Hamas plan has as its foundation the weakness displayed by Fatah leader Abbas.
Abbas never wanted to conflict with Hamas, never wanted to attack Hamas and never wanted to raise the specter of civil war ... but now Fatah forces are clamping down on Hamas' weapons which must mean that they are doing Israel's bidding.

Hamas has given an order to resist and keep getting more weapons.
The United States has expressed the expectation that Abbas will stop Hamas, but that cannot be done without violence.
Abbas is playing into the hands of Hamas.
The large questions remain as to whether the Palestinian people will side with Hamas or with Fatah and whether Fatah has the internal strength to put Hamas down. Or will Hamas portray Fatah as traitors.

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PA Honors Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A Federal District Court in Texas sentenced two men, members of the Holy Land Foundation, to 65 years in prison for funneling money to Hamas.
Hamas claims that the trial and the conviction are unjust and politically motivated.

Hamas is wrong.
In the United States, Congress makes the law and Congress has made this law perfectly clear: it is illegal to give money and support to terrorist organizations. Hamas is a terrorist organization.

That point having been made we must also recognize that US dollars are going to more and more causes that glorify terror.
On Tuesday the office of Palestinian Authority President Abbas opened a new computer center for children - with money given to them by USAID.
The center is named after a terrorist who, in 1978, led an eleven member terror squad that captured two school busses and a taxi and left 37 murdered Israelis, 12 of them children. Also murdered was American photographer Gail Rubin. This terrorist attack is now known by Israelis as the Coastal Road Massacre.

The name of the terrorist is Dala Mughrabi.
In addition to this computer center, a school, a soccer tournament, a summer camp and many other tributes have been named in memory of this terrorist.

Congress also prohibits idolizing terrorists with US government funds.
This miscarriage of congressional decrees must be stopped.
Trials are one way, diplomatic pressure is another.


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The Most Popular Arab Bad Boys
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Brookings Institute just completed a popularity study in the Arab world.
Brookings went to six Arab countries with the question: who is the most popular leader in the Arab world.

The six countries polled are Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
The answers are baffling analysts around the world - the White House included. Why is everyone so baffled?
Because most analysts have not paid attention to the "Bad Boy" phenomenon of Arab leadership and its popularity with the Arab population.

The assumption has always been that the leaders of the Arab world were Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Conventional wisdom is correct, they are indeed the leaders of the Arab world.
But they are not the most popular leaders in the eyes of Arab man-on-the-street.

Number 1 was Bashar Assad, Syria's strong man.
Number 2 was Muhammed al- Nayan, an enigmatic character from Abu Dhabi.
Number 3 was Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader.

The most important lesson the West can learn from this study is that the people of the Middle East love the bad boys who challenge the United States.
Which also explains the Arab world's love affair with Saddam Hussein.

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Do People Change?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes people change.
Sometimes new power and new responsibility force people to change.
Sometimes it is only the language they use that changes.

In 1987 Farouk Hosni became Egypt's Minister of Culture and has held the position ever since.
Egypt's Minister of Culture has said he will burn any Hebrew book he sees in an Egyptian library.

Hosni is now the leading candidate for the head of UNESCO.
He is now using the media to repudiate his previous statements.
Today Hosni says that he deplores racism and hatred, that he loves all culture even Jewish culture. He is saying that he "deplores the nullification of others ... the defacement of cultures and racism."

New attitude or political expedience?
Is the future head of the United Nation's educational and cultural body a racist and an anti-Semite or a reformed racist and anti-Semite?

Israel has withdrawn its objection to Hosni and he will probably get the UNESCO appointment.
Eventually, the truth will out.

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Jerusalem & Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Discussions about Jerusalem have sent a flurry of diplomatic shots across the bow this week.

In Jerusalem, during Jerusalem Day celebrations held last week, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu announced that Jerusalem will continue to be the undivided capital of the Jewish State.
The French, among others, are saying that Netanyahu's announcement prejudices diplomatic negotiations and influences the final outcome between Palestinians and Israelis.

The US State Department is saying that the status of Jerusalem is unresolved.
What a diplomatic understatement.

For those who do not know, to this very day the United States maintains two consulates in Jerusalem.
One consulate is in East Jerusalem and one is in West Jerusalem.
When an American is born in Jerusalem the US issued passport, issued out of the East Jerusalem consulate, does not list Israel as the country of birth.
The passport simply reads: Jerusalem.

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Israel and Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A recent poll, conducted by the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, illustrates how Israelis feel about the threat of Iran and about whether to preemptively strike at Iran now or to wait for diplomacy to work.

51% of the 507 randomly selected Israelis said strike now - while 49% said give diplomacy a chance.
74% responded that the new US policy toward Iran would certainly fail.

As this poll was made public one of the Iranian presidential candidates, Mohsen Rezai who had been the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards for 16 years, said that under his leadership Israel would never threaten Iran. Why? Because in one shot he would destroy Israel. Rezai said that he knows Israel's weakness and could, with a well placed shot, stop Israel forever.

Here is Rezai's exact quote from a Sunday news conference:
"My government ... understands missiles and tanks as well as foreign policy and knows exactly where Israel's sensitive spots are. It could stop them forever with one strike."

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"Calamitous" Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Admiral Mike Mullen, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was just quoted saying that a nuclear Iran is potentially "calamitous."

"Calamitous" is a very powerful word.
Mullen said, "I'm one who believes that Iran getting a nuclear weapon is calamitous for the region and for the world."
Here we have it:
The most important military leader and adviser in the United States is saying that Iran is very dangerous.

Ahmadinejad has been using his own very powerful word.
Ahmadinejad is on record saying that he is standing up to the West and defending Iran's honor.
He chose the word "disgraceful" to describe the decision of former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami to freeze the Iranian nuclear program in 2004.

Everyone seems to agree on the power behind Iran's nuclear activity.
Everyone, that is, except the White House.

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Biden in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

US Vice President Joe Biden will visit Beirut, Lebanon today.

Biden will meet with the Lebanese prime minister and president.

The objective of the trip is to bolster support for the Lebanese elections that are scheduled for two weeks from now, on June 2nd.

Right now, the elections look very tight.

Hezbollah might actually get a plurality in these elections and then take over Lebanon. Hezbollah is getting assistance and support from Syria. They are growing in their percentages because so many non-Hezbollah supporters are fleeing, leaving the oppressive environments controlled by Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon.

Since 2006 the United States has given a billion dollars in aid to Lebanon.

If Hezbollah becomes the prime force in the Lebanese government, that aid will stop.
If Hezbollah wins the election Lebanon will become a mini Iran, it will be a second Shiite nation and it will be an Islamic state.
It will threaten Israel and be a strong, effective proxy for Iran in the region and around the world.

If Hezbollah wins the election, Hezbollah will destroy Lebanon.

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Russia Says Won't Sell MIGS to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Word just came that the Russians have decided not to selling MIG-31's to Syria.

The Russians have decided to nix the deal that would add 8 new MIG- 31's to Syria's arsenal.

The MIG-31 is no ordinary flying machine.

The plane has a radius range of about 500 miles and can reach speeds of 1800 miles per hour.

The cost of buying these high flying, high tech fighter planes was half a billion dollars.

These fighter jets, often called "Fox Hound" would have been a huge improvement to the Syrian air force.

The Kommersant is the newspaper that reported that the deal was off.

The paper quoted two sets of sources giving differing reasons for the implosion of this deal.

Source # 1 said it was due to Israel's lobby. That ever since the rumors of the deal began, Israel and other Western governments lobbied Russian leadership to rethink selling such sophisticated military hardware to an unreliable and unpredictable government like Syria.

Source # 2 said the deal was scrapped because Syria could not come up with the money.

The second reason sounds more plausible than the first.

I think that Syria was asking Iran to foot the bill and stringing Russia along. Russia realized what was happening and made the preemptive move of canceling the deal.
Past experience with Russian deals to Iran shows us that Russia is impervious to international pressure and geopolitical arguments about good and evil hold no sway with the Russians. All that counts is the dollar.

Bottom line: This failed deal is good for the free world.

The relationship between Israel and the US remains very strong.

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Obama - Bibi Meet Went As Expected
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Obama - Bibi meeting played out just as expected.
There was a pinch of tension and a fistful of listening.
In the end, both sides agreed on almost everything and decided to disagree about the other things.

The Israeli said what he had to say about Iran and about Palestinian statehood.
Obama listened and then said what he had to say while Netanyahu listened.
Both men felt that they had successfully and convincingly delivered their messages.

The reality is that there are many commonalities between Israel and the United States.
It is the differences that are fundamental.
Obama wants to shake things up and start all over again.
Obama wants to give Iran a chance.
Obama wants to enable Palestinian statehood.

The relationship between Israel and the US remains very strong.
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Face to Face: Bibi & Obama
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I just got the news that the Bibi Netanyahu/Barack Obama meeting is scheduled to last for 3 hours and 15 minutes.

It will begin with a face-to-face tete-a-tete.
That's very unusual, it is also a very good move.
It means Obama and Netanyahu will meet and greet without staff.
It means they will do what they each do best - allow themselves to be themselves in a one-on-one situation.
They will be able to deliver their messages without posturing and without the input of others.

Netanyahu's national security advisor set up this Washington visit, coordinating everything through an advance trip. On Sunday he went on the record laying out what he understands to be to most essential issues that Israel will be addressing.

# 1: Iran. Not just the threat of Iran, but also the US approach to Iran.
# 2: The Palestinian State. Israel's prime minister will explain that immediately after Ariel Sharon gave Gaza over to the Palestinians the area was transformed into a haven of terror and a center for Hamas. He will stress that unless the PA accepts both control and responsibility what happened in Gaza will happen in the West Bank.
Netanyahu will probably use expressions like, "this is not rocket science" and "this will be a direct threat to the very existence of Israel and that is unacceptable."

Obama will just listen.
At a future date he will have his staff present the themes the United States wants to see evolving over the next few months.

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Nakba 2009
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have been commemorating the Nakba.
The Nakba is Arabic for the "Catastrophe."

The Nakba refers to Israel's Independence - Palestinians mourn Israel's creation.
The Nakba rallies took place in Ramallah on Thursday May 14th and in Gaza on Friday, May 15th.

I have never understood why the Palestinians do not use the Arabic calendar. I have never understood why some Palestinians commemorate the Nakba on the 14th and others on the 15th when the Gregorian date for Israel's independence was May 14, 1948.

In Gaza, Hamas forbade all Fatah organizations from participating in the Nakba events. Hamas ordered the head of Fatah in Gaza not to have any of his people there. These were Hamas events, Fatah participation was not welcome.
The participants held banners and signs that read "we will return to Jaffa & to all our lands" and "we will never recognize Israel" and "Israel is a cancer" and "the right of return is sacred."

The events of the Nakba are the centerpiece of Palestinian culture.
This entire commemoration demonstrates a basic Palestinian disconnect from reality, it illustrates Palestinian disunity and shows how fundamentally, Palestinians blame Israel for all problems.

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Iran is Helping Out
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran sent two naval warships to the Gulf of Aden yesterday.
Their job is to protect ships traveling with Iranian oil.
An Iranian spokesman put it this way: "The aim of sending these ships is to protect Iranian commercial vessels and oil tankers or those ships which carry Iranian commodities or nationals."

Iran is the 5th largest exporter of crude oil in the world.
Iranian exports have been attacked by the Somali pirates and Iran wants to make it more difficult for the pirates to strike again.
A NATO armada already operates in the gulf but these additional Iranian ships will help spread the security blanket and more completely cover the region.
There is already one Iranian warship in the area and it was unclear from the announcement whether there will now be three ships or if the original was included in the count of two.

Iran understands the danger of piracy.
Iran will be cooperating with the other ships in the gulf.
This is a very important move. It signals a willingness by Iran to participate in international activities for mutual gain and illustrates that Iran can cooperate when Iranian self interest is the motivating force.

The only question is whether new information can be applied to other issues.

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Conflict Within Fatah
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Word has it that Fatah leadership has ordered that government appointees of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad not appear and not be sworn into the new government.

Hamas/Fatah tensions are nothing new.
Now we are seeing Fatah/Fatah tensions.

Abbas and Fayyad are in sync, but the rest of Fatah leadership has a problem with Fayyad.
It has to do more with style and history than with substance.
Fayyad came from the outside, he had been in Washington DC at the World Bank for many years and it was Arafat who parachuted him in to leadership.
Resentment still lingers until today.

In the end, there is no need to worry.
Fatah will be as stable as Fatah can be.
Abbas will mollify the dissenters and push this issue to the sidelines.

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The Pope's Awakening
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope's historic dream trip to the Holy Land crashed into reality yesterday.

Conflict and shouting erupted during a meeting in Jerusalem at the holy site Notre Dame.
Religious representatives of all the religions of Israel had gathered to meet the Pope and have a traditional exchange of ideas. The situation got so far out of hand that the Pope was ushered out of the sanctuary before the event ended. The Pope was treated to a rude and real situation, one in which anger and uncivilized shouting are the norm.

What happened was that after the Pope's presentation about unity and working together in order to overcome differences, the head of the Muslim courts started shouting at the Pope. He shouted that Israel was murdering children and destroying mosques. He shouted that Israel needed to be stopped. He shouted that Israel was stealing Palestinian land. He shouted that the Palestinian capital will always be Jerusalem.

The Pope would not confront the ideas.
The Pope just left the room.
The biggest shame of it all is that the Muslim community was not even embarrassed by or ashamed of this verbal explosion.

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PA Says Iran Butt Out
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appeared on Italian TV on Sunday. Abbas made it clear that Ahmadinejad has no business sticking his nose in the business of the Palestinian people.

The interview was fascinating.

It highlighted the tensions between Iran and everyone else in the Middle East.

It demonstrates that the part of the world inhabited by Abbas and Ahmadinejad is anything but united.

The hottest button in the Middle East is the Palestinian button.
The Palestinians want help from everyone ... everyone except Iran.

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Obama's Speech to the Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The word is that during Obama's June trip to Europe he will stop in the Middle East.

We already knew that the president was going to pass through Israel and meet with Palestinian leadership.
Now the inside word is that he will also visit Egypt and from there he will deliver his much anticipated speech about new US relations with the Muslim world.
This speech will be the Obama vision of a new US/Muslim nexus.
He will lay out his perspective for the future and delineate what it means to work together.

I could write the speech for him today.
There is very little that will change between now and then. It will not be a speech about immediate events, it will be about tone and about the past. Most importantly this speech will be about the future.

Obama will condemn past American administrations.
He will emphasize the importance of Islam. He will embrace Islam for being a world leader in culture and civilization. He will underscore the need for everyone to confront extremism. He will assert the need to put down the terrorists and the need to stand up against the murder of innocent people. He will say that this is not about politics, that it is about doing what God demands. He will clearly explain that a better world requires us to work together.

Barack Obama will be very well received.
The masses will be happy but skeptical of him and of his message.
The extremists will not be convinced.
The rest of us will be left wait and watch and determine the real impact of his words.

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Real Tensions Btw Israel and DC
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There are serious murmurs about tensions and lack of coordination between the new Israeli administration under Bibi Netanyahu and the relatively new United States administration under Obama.
People are worrying.

This is not a judgment based on a comparison between old administrations and new administrations.
It is a true and significant series of questions about teamwork.
The problem is not Israel, it is Washington.

Washington is not telling Israel what it wants.
Washington is not coordinating messages or articulating expectations.
Jerusalem is in the dark about some very important issues.

For example:
Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for Nuclear Issues, Rose Gottemoeller, called on Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The United States blind sighted Israel, making a demand and never even broaching the subject with Israel.

For example:
The United States sent special envoy Dennis Ross to the region to work on Shiite-Sunni tensions between Iran and her neighbors. And Ross did not brief Israel, not before the meeting and not after.

In the past, even during periods of tensions, Israel and the US coordinated large issues. Why? Because of their obvious, mutual interests.
Now, when there is no reason for tension between the two countries, the White House and Jerusalem are not on the same page, they are sharing neither agendas nor priorities.
Israel is still standing.
But Israel is standing alone.

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Pakistan Reacts
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, the leadership of Pakistan has decided to act against the Taliban.

Until this week Pakistani leadership was handcuffed, refusing to act against the Taliban in the Swat valley which is located a mere 60 miles from the capital of Islamabad.

For some unfathomable reason, leaders in Pakistan felt it judicious to merely sit and watch as the Taliban swarmed the Pakistani countryside.

Muslim history over the past few decades has shown that most leaders simply do not act against extremists. They hope that the extremists will wither away, they pray that by some miracle they will not have to fight the extremists, turning Muslim against Muslim. The result is that as time progresses extremists become stronger and stronger and Pakistani leaders become weaker and weaker.

This is exactly what was happening in Pakistan - until this week. With the insistence and the tough love and urging of the United States, Pakistan decided to confront the Taliban.

This is not just an important step - it is an essential step. Without acting against the Taliban there is no way that Pakistan can defend itself or protect itself.

The assumption that there is a grand Islamic code whereby a Muslim will not hurt a Muslim is simply wrong.

If permitted to do so, the Taliban will destroy Pakistan and the only way to save Pakistan is to attack the Taliban.

Finally, Pakistani leadership figured it out.

Pakistan will not only be helping itself, it will also be helping to make the world more secure.

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Watch Ahmadinejad's Travel Schedule
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I watch Ahmadinejad's travel schedule very closely.
I want to know where he is going and with whom he is speaking.

This week his schedule is very interesting.
Ahmadinejad cancelled a trip to South America where he was supposed to visit Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador. The cancellation came with no explanation.

Tuesday was spent on a visit to Syria, his third visit to in a very short time span.
Note that Ahmadinejad's trip to Syria took place at the same time that President Obama's new team is making advances toward Syria and Iran.

There is no doubt about the Syria/Iran agenda:
- the new United States overtures
- the new Israeli prime minister
- the possibility of peace between Palestinians and Israelis
- how they can move Hamas into the mainstream in order to sabotage any plans for peace by means of political pushes, media blitzes and terror

Serious brainstorming sessions will produce concrete results.
That leaves us to wait and see what diabolical plans have been hatched.

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Syria Gives Tips to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, in an interview with France-3 television, Syrian President Bashar Assad praised the new Obama diplomacy and offered some tips for future success.

Assad recommended that the United States talk directly to Hezbollah and Hamas because they are, according to Assad's description, essential pieces in the greater Middle East and the conflict with Israel.

More remarkable than the content of Assad's comments was the tone.
It's as if Syria was an insider, as if a friend is offering insight to the United States on how to deal with a complicated issue via the French airwaves.

Syria is not a friend.
Syria cannot be trusted.
Syria is the farthest thing from a resource on this issue.
Syria sponsors Hezbollah and partially supports Hamas, by propping up Hezbollah and Hamas they are propping themselves up.

Israel's analysts are doing their best in trying to understand the motivation behind this US shift towards Syria.
Syria has not changed, so why has the US attitude toward Syria so changed?
I take that back, Syria has changed, Syria has clamped down and become even more repressive over these last few weeks.
What's with the new attitude, President Obama ?

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Peres From the PA POV
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In a damning critique a spokesman for the Palestinian Authority called Israeli President Shimon Peres a "launderer" of Israeli governments that do not favor peace.
The attack explicitly said that Peres has done nothing for peace and has white washed governments who hurt the peace process.

Shimon Peres is many things, but he is neither an enemy of peace nor a launderer.
If anything, Peres talks too much and too often says what is on his mind without caring about the consequences.
Over the course of his career that brutal honesty has hurt him politically while endearing him to much of Israeli society.

This statement is more damning to the Palestinian Authority than it is to Peres.
This statement demonstrates just how obtuse the PA is about peace.
Palestinians believe that if you do not support their cause 100% you are not an advocate for peace - and that is a huge mistake.
Shimon Peres is one of the biggest supporters of peace within Israel, but not peace at the price of the destruction of Israel.

And that is precisely why Shimon Peres is such a convincing Israeli spokesman for Israel against unfair attacks.
Shimon Peres has unquestionable credentials in the peace arena.

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Justice Drops AIPAC Case
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday United States prosecutors moved to dismiss the case against two former AIPAC personnel.
Steve Rosen and Keith Weissman, former high level AIPAC lobbyists, were about to be tried in US District Court on charges of espionage.

The case should never have gotten that far.
The prosecution is dropping the case and the court will certainly agree.
The prosecution was convinced that they could not win given the pre-trial rulings in favor of the defendants.
The Judge, JT Ellis III, saw the case for what it was - a ridiculous miscarriage of justice by the prosecution that bordered on anti-Semitism.

AIPAC made two gargantuan mistakes in dealing with this entire situation.
# 1 was a moral mistake
# 2 was a monetary mistake
Morally, AIPAC was wrong for not standing up for their own.
Monetarily, by dropping their employees and forcing Rosen and Weissman to fend for themselves AIPAC lost the opportunity to raise millions for their defense in the face of this anti-Semitic prosecution.

AIPAC showed poor judgment and even poorer leadership.

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Gates Says Sanction Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who also served under Bush, testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee that a military strike will not solve the nuclear issue in Iran.
Gates explained that a strike will push the Iranian program even deeper underground and will solidify Iran's desire to have a nuclear program.

For several years now I have been saying that the best the West and Israel can effectively and safely deliver is a knock down punch to Iran.
I have been saying that if a knock out punch is impossible, which it appears to be, then we must develop alternatives.

Gates is advising to hit Iran with more sanctions because the Iranians hate sanctions and hate knowing that they are despised by the world at large.
Gates is saying that the only real way to deal with Iran is through tough diplomacy - not through a military strike.

A one-two punch, a combination of diplomacy and the serious threat of attack, is probably the best method of influencing Iran's nuclear policy.

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It's Not Easy Being 61
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was Israel's 61st birthday.
US President Obama called and gave his blessing to Israel, emphasizing how his vision supports Israel and the peace process.

President Mubarak of Egypt also called. He congratulated President Shimon Peres and expressed the wish that this year the peace process will get back on track.

Interestingly, on Monday Venezuela chose to initiate a diplomatic agreement and the Palestinians opened an embassy in Caracas, Venezuela.
During this past winter's operation against Hamas, Chavez expelled the Israeli ambassador. Yesterday the Palestinian Foreign minister called Hugo Chavez the most popular leader in the Arab world.

Chavez is so popular because he challenges the priorities of the West.
Chavez is the voice of the many people that are afraid to challenge the United States and US hegemony and the US orientation in the world.

Chavez is what they call a very bad boy.
And very bad boys tend to become very popular n the Middle East.

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New Election in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The election in Iran takes place on June 12th.
Ahmadinejad is running and hopes to retain his position.
Other candidates who have thrown their names into the ring are also in favor of reforming Iran's backward economy.

Two of the most prominent candidates for reform are Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi. These reformers would have a better chance at success if they joined forces. As a united front they would be able to present The Ayatollah, The Supreme Leader and the only vote that really counts in this election, with a serious alternative to Ahmadinejad.

Karoubi went on the record, on Iranian national news, yesterday.
He made his points clearly and pointedly:
"Reducing tension with the West surely is my priority."
"The president's speeches have harmed Iran's interests."
"Holocaust is of no concern to Iran whether it existed or not ... Such remarks provoke other countries to take measures against Iran."

Karoubi expressed sentiments that resonate with the people of Iran.
The only question is whether they will sway The Supreme Leader.
Expect more of these statements over the next 6 weeks.

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Israeli Oranges in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday Iran launched an inquiry.

The Iranians are investigating how Israeli oranges were imported into Iran despite a law that clearly forbids promoting Israeli products.

The Israeli oranges are very tasty and seem to be in big demand.
And they entered Iran in crates marked in Chinese.
The crates seem to have arrived from Dubai.
Officials are saying that the oranges must have come in through unofficial channels.

The reality of today's markets is that things are often repackaged to make them look one way rather than another.

And in the case of many items from Israel the original packaging leaves off the words "product of Israel."

My guess is that is probably what happened here.

Another example of how Iran is trying to shut out Israel.

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The Ayatoallah Says it Was the US & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran is The Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On Saturday he announced that the horrific suicide attacks that shook Iraq were perpetrated by the United States and Israel.

"The American and Israeli intelligence apparatuses are the number-one
accused ... for the spread of the poisonous seeds of terrorism in Iraq."

"Those evil brains and sinful hands that established this blind, unbridled terrorism in Iraq should know that this fire will end up burning them."

Some of the victims were Iranians on a pilgrimage to Iraq, in fact, many of the victims were on a religious pilgrimage. It is hard to imagine, but Muslims murdered other Muslims who were involved in a religious pilgrimage. Muslims murdered Muslims as an act of Islam – and then threw the blame onto others.

If these Muslims do not even respect religious observance, what do they respect? This is the enemy we must defeat.

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We Must Say What is Right
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President Barack Obama marked the day commemorating the Armenian Genocide without even mentioning the word "genocide."

The day is set aside to honor the memories of 1.5 million civilians killed by the Ottomans in 1915. The subject is a difficult one for Armenians and Turks to discuss. Conversations become heated and are laced with passion. Only now are the two sides at the cusp of resolving the conflict and recognizing the historical reality that took place at the beginning of the previous century.

In not mentioning the word "genocide" the president was breaking an election promise. He was also cow-towing to the Turks. Turkey is certainly a friend of the United States, but the Turks must know where we stand on this issue. The Turks know what truly happened and they know that it is best for everyone to come to an understanding of that period in history and to remember it for what it was.

Obama called it "one of the great atrocities of the 20th century."
He said: "I have consistently stated my own view of what occurred in 1915, and my view of that history has not changed" ... "My interest remains the achievement of a full, frank and just acknowledgment of the facts."
He continued: "The best way to advance that goal right now," ... "is for the Armenian and Turkish people to address the facts of the past as a part of their efforts to move forward."
President Obama was tap dancing around this issue. What the Turks did was atrocious. One need not harp on it, but neither can it be ignored or avoided.

The word "genocide" was created in order to describe, as Obama called it, "one of the great atrocities of the 20th century."
History cannot be rewritten to better fit our political alliances.

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Egypt Is Angry
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak issued a stern warning to Iran and to Hezbollah.

He told them. Do not attempt to destabilize Egypt!

This is not the first time Mubarak has issued this warning.
This is not the first time Mubarak has spoken to Iran and to Hezbollah.
The warning began when it was discovered that there was a terror ring operating in Egypt, sponsored by Hezbollah and Iran, with the expressed purpose of attacking Egyptian tourists and the Suez Cannel.

This is what Mubarak had to say:
"They are trying to enforce their agenda on our Arab world. They see the division in the Arab and Palestinian worlds and they're pushing their agents to the region to threaten Egypt's national security and undermine its stability. We will not allow them to bring the region to the brink of an abyss."

He continued: "We are aware of your plans."
"We will uncover all of your plots and we will respond to your ploys. Stop using the Palestinian issue and beware the wrath of Egypt."

Egypt is angry.
Egypt is rallying other Arab countries to channel their anger toward Iran and Hezbollah

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Iran Rachets the Tension
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is ratcheting up the tensions.
Iran is trying to create an "us versus them" situation.
"Us" is Iran, "them" is the whole rest of the world.

Creating that tension was one of the intentions behind the keynote speech delivered by Ahmadinejad in Geneva at Durban II.

Perpetuating that tension was the job of Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament and a trusted closed adviser of Ahmadinejad, who said on national Iranian TV yesterday that if attacked "Iran will respond in a way so that they will not be able to sleep easy anymore."

That statement was a direct counter threat addressed to Israel.
In that statement, "they" was Israel.

At the same time Shimon Peres, the president of Israel, was quoted as saying that Israel is not planning an attack on Iran.

In truth, Shimon Peres does not have the faintest idea what Israel is planning because the president of Israel is a non-policy, largely ceremonial, post.

The point is that Peres is trying to dial down the tensions.

In an ironic twist, Peres is the father of Israel's nuclear program.
It was his brainchild and his initiative, dating back to the early years of Israel.

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US Banks Apply to Open in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An article in the Bahraini Gulf Daily News sent me running to the Iranian press to verify an amazing and apparently correct report.
Four US banks have applied to Iran for licenses to operate in Iran.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are the biggest of the banks to have applied.

The process is not easy.
If the banks do get permission, it will be limited permission.
The US banks will only be permitted to function in a free trade zone.
But if they adhere to Iranian law, they will be permitted to open branches in all the major Iranian cities.

I see two huge problems.
Problem # 1 is the 3 sets of sanctions that the United States was instrumental in passing against Iran. The US applies pressure to isolate and stop trade with Iran even if people are within the realm on non-sanctioned goods.

Problem # 2 is that Iranian banks must operate according to Islamic law.
That law forbids interest - it forbids earning interest or charging interest. The way the Islamic banks get around the law is that the Islamic banks pay "provincial rates." The provincial rate is the amount based on profits and losses in the bank.

More and more often, reality is more surreal than fiction.

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Spy Rings Everywhere
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Saturday's Al Hayat, the Arab language newspaper published in London, reported that a spy ring infiltrated the high ranks of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to the report the spy ring was originally said to be made up of Israelis, but now it seems that it was actually an internal Lebanese spy ring.
The paper reports that three people were arrested and one of them was a high ranking Lebanese military official.

Combine this with the information that Egypt reported about a terrorist cell that they broke that had a mission to overthrow the Egyptian government.
That cell was sponsored by Iran, Syria, Qatar Hezbollah and Hamas.
Egypt also reported that Al Jazeera, the television network, was also involved because some the meetings of the conspirators took place in the Al Jazeera bureau office in Cairo and that they were in cahoots with the Islamic Brotherhood which is dedicated to the overthrow of the Egyptian government.

There has always been lot of cloak and dagger in the Muslim world.
Now we are seeing much bolder and very public moves.
Now we are seeing external sponsorship of destabilizing forces and plots.
The stakes are getting higher for control of the Arab world.

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Al Bashir Has Chutzpah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Omar al Bashir has more than a little chutzpah.
Al Bashir was indicted in March for crimes against humanity and for the murder of 100,000 people in Darfur.
The indictment also charges that he was responsible for displacing 2.5 million refugees.

President Obama has dispatched a special envoy, Scott Gration, to meet with al Bashir.
In a recent speech he displayed a hopeful attitude about the new attitude of the US toward the Arab world.
He said, "our hands are held out to those who call for peace and justice in accordance with the standards of fairness and dignity." Omar al Bashir almost sounded like Barack Obama.

Al Bashir also explained why he expelled 13 different aid agencies. Not aid workers - aid agencies. These were groups working to make life bearable in the midst of the terror he has created.

What is going on? When a mass murderer, a butcher, a tyrant is feeling downright good about the attitude of the United states, the greatest democracy in the world, toward his country - something is terribly wrong.

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Hezbollah & Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The story of the Hezbollah cell that was uncovered and dismembered in Egypt is becoming more and more interesting.

The most recent information emerging from the interrogation of arrested cell members is that two of them were actually Fatah members planning to infiltrate Israel and perpetrate attacks in Tel Aviv.

The two terrorists were caught and transferred to the authorities in Gaza who let them go. They then returned to Egypt to complete their training and eventually make their way into Israel.

The recruitment techniques and the effectiveness of this cell is impressive.
They recruited Sunni Fatah members and manipulated them so that they would adopt the Hezbollah Shiite perspective.
They wanted to hurt Egypt.

This entire episode is an example of the way in which Hezbollah overstepped their boundaries.
Hezbollah should never have ventured to plan an attack in another Arab country and never should have admitted to it even if they had.
Hezbollah is getting too big for their britches.

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Durban II
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Durban II which is scheduled to take place April 20-24, 2009 in Geneva.
Ahmadinejad has announced through the national Iranian media that he will be attending.

Durban II is the follow up to a UN sponsored international conference that took place in Durban, South Africa in 2001. On paper, Durban was to be a conference dedicated to human rights. In fact, it turned into a hatefest against Israel.

The official title of this conference is the World Conference Against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia, and Related Intolerance.
As the finishing touches are being put on the conference, countries are looking over their shoulders to see who will and who will not be in attendance.

Clearly, Iran is in favor of the stated agenda for Durban II.
Canada has announced that they will not attend, Italy did the same. They said the agenda seems to be totally dedicated to bashing Israel.
The United States has sent out mixed messages and is now "considering not attending." Their early decision wasa to make no decision.

I have read the two draft positions of the organizing committee for the upcoming conference. The first draft was a near duplicate of Durban 2001. The second draft was a slightly improved version. It is telling that while many Western countries are expressing concern about the nature of the Durban II conference, Ahmadinejad has declared his desire to attend.

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Arabs Prefer Lieberman
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian Ambassador Imad Mustafa recently appeared on CNN.
In his interview Mustafa exhibited a rarely seen element of Arab diplomacy.
Mustafa spoke bluntly, he was downright direct and clear.

Mustafa spoke about two important items.

He said that the new administration in Israel seems to be very similar to the previous administration when it comes to peace and the process of peace.

He said that he prefers the new Israeli foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman to the previous foreign minister, Tzippi Livni.
Mustafa explained that the reason for his preference is simple. He prefers Lieberman because Lieberman speaks his mind.

This was not the personal evaluation of the ambassador, remember, he is the Syrian ambassador. Mustafa was giving voice to Syria's and the greater Arab world's perspective on the Netanyahu administration.
The Arab world is not happy about the Bibi/Lieberman team.
Actually, the Arab world has very serious reservations about Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman.

The corridors of power in the Arab does, however, recognize that one positive aspect of the new Israeli administration is the direct approach of Lieberman.

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Abdullah & Obama to Meet in April in DC
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

King Abdullah of Jordan will visit Washington DC and meet with President Barrack Obama on April 21, 2009.

The objective of the meeting is simple and clear.
Jordan wants the US to take a much more active role in the Middle East.
Jordan wants the US to pressure Israel to make concessions.
Most importantly, Jordan wants the United States to urge Israel to accept the Saudi plan.

Without a doubt, the meeting will be enormously positive and each party will be more than pleased with the results of their mini-summit.
Both the US and Jordan will agree that the biggest obstacle to the entire peace plan is Israel.
Both the US and Jordan will agree that the US is better able to apply the pressure necessary to change Israel's stance than any other third party in the world.

The problem with this conclusion is two fold.
The first problem is that Obama will not be totally honest with King Abdullah. Obama will say what Jordan and the rest of the Arab world wants to hear, but not necessarily what reflects reality.

The second and a very significant problem is that Israel knows what the end result will be even in advance of the meeting. Israel will know that the US and especially Obama has begun a duplicitous negotiation. Israel will understand that Obama's objectives are not necessarily in sync with Israel's interests on the matter of peace.

It is not good enough to pressure Israel or to buy into the regional Middle East plan.
Netanyahu and his new administration will rightly insist that any progress must be predicated on real Palestinian change regarding fighting terror and on the Palestinians changing their vehement anti-Israel teachings.

Bottom line: this meeting between Barack and Abdullah will be an abysmal failure for US diplomacy.

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Arrow II Is a Message to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Just to make sure, Israel has re-tested their Arrow II surface-to-air anti-missile rocket.

This was the 16th time the anti-missile rocket was tested.
The rockets have proven to have 90% accuracy and success.

Why did Israel make this information public?

To let Iran know that Israel is getting better and better at hitting incoming rockets. To let Iran know that Israel will be almost completely shielded from any possible Iranian attack.

Just to let Iran know, that's why.

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Syria's Take on Obama
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

One of the best ways to read the teas leaves in the Arab world is to watch the Arab world's response to other people's speeches and actions.

Syria's Foreign Minister Wallid Moullem was quoted in a Saudi Arabian newspaper.
Commenting on US President Barack Obama's speech in Turkey, Moullem said that the words were nice, then asked how they coincide with the new Israeli government.

With that comment Syria laid bare their lack of understanding of the relationship between the United States and Israel.
Syria assumes that there is a disconnect in policy and practice, as if the United States and Israel are two sides of the same unit.

But they are not.
Israel and the US will have to work out their differences.
And the rest of the world will wait and will watch.

The Israeli perspective is that two states will work only when there is a viable Palestinian Authority, only when there is a PA that can govern.
The United States is hoping that there already is a PA that can govern.
The United States will be disappointed.

The US still needs to be educated in the ways of the Middle East.
As that happens the US could be reaching out and helping both Israel and the Palestinians to build institutions of freedom and security and justice.
The best place to start is in the schools.

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George Mitchell Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

George Mitchell, President Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, will be visiting Jerusalem next week.
This will be his third trip to the region since assuming this position.

Mitchell is making the trip in order to introduce the Obama administration's Middle East plans - which are no big secret.
While in Jerusalem he will, of course, hear from the new Israeli administration about their plans for the Middle East in general and the Palestinian issue in particular.

Netanyahu and Lieberman, the new Israeli foreign minister, will undoubtedly have all the time in the world to plead their case with Mitchell. Mitchell's style is to let people talk and talk and talk. Then Mitchell distills the discourse into several essential issues and takes that back to his boss.

This visit signals the beginning of a detailed interaction between the United States and Israel.

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A Very Crafty Assad
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, veiled in secrecy, members of Congress visited Bashar Assad, the president of Syria.

If I did not read the Syrian and Lebanese press, I would never have known that Stephen Lynch, Democrat from MA and Robert Inglis, Republican from SC had a face-to-face with the tyrant of Damascus.

Assad was pleased.
He said that he was hopeful because of the new status Syria has been accorded by the West.
He said that he was hopeful because Syria was now engaged in indirect talks with Israel.
He said that he wanted the United States to play a more active role in the Middle East.

That's what Assad said, now I will translate and tell you what Assad means.
Of course Assad is happy with Syria's new role.
The West has brought Syria out of the cold and all Syria had to do was, well, nothing. Syria did not change a thing, not attitudinally, not militarily, not politically. It is a classic Ghadaffi move.
As for Assad's desire to have the United States play a more active role in the Middle East, that is Arab speak for saying that the wants the US to exert more influence on Israel to make concessions.

The young Assad has truly become his father's son.
Bashar is now playing a shrewd even crafty and dexterous game of foreign policy.
Bashar Assad has become adept at playing one side off the other and at not committing to anything all the while receiving promises of more and more incentives.

His father would be proud.

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Muslims Persecute Christians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Christians are often persecuted by Muslims in the Middle East.
In fact, there is a long history of Muslims persecutions of Christians.

Nowadays, most of these incidents go unnoticed and uncovered by mainstream press. In many cases, they are not even covered in the Christian press.

This past weekend in the port city of Alexandria, Egypt there was a massive riot against the Christians.
News spread quickly through the city that Christians had stabbed a Muslim.
In response, the Muslim community gathered near a mosque and from there went on a riotous rampage throughout the city breaking the windows of Christian shops and destroying Christian property.

The Egyptian police arrested only five rioters.
They had already arrested the three Christian brothers responsible for the stabbing. The stabbing was the result of a landlord tenant dispute that turned into a scuffle and from there into the stabbing.

10% of the 79 million people in Egypt are Christians.
Egypt's Christians live in constant fear of these hateful, violent riots and acts of rage.

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JUNE 12th, MARK YOUR CALENDAR
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 7, 2009

Column:

In Iran, The Supreme Leader wields supreme power.

And on June 12th the world will bear witness to that power. On June 12th the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, The Supreme Leader, will choose the next president of the Islamic Republic.

Certainly, the people of Iran will be the ones in the voting booths. Realistically, there is only one vote that counts in Iran.

The decision facing the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei is not an easy one. He must tap the candidate who will best move the country in the direction the Grand Ayatollah wants it to take and move it along with, not in defiance of, the Iranian people. At stake in this election are the hearts and minds of the Iranian people. At stake in this election is religious adherence. At stake in this election is a move towards the Ayatollah Khamenei's brand of Shiite Islam.

The Supreme Leader will decide which one of two men will best realize his, the Supreme Leader's, vision for the future of Iran. He will choose between the current leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a man whom the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei has supported and of whom he was once very fond and between Houssein Mousavi.

The major conflict on the streets of Iran today revolves around support for the policies embraced by Ahmadinejad and the policies of the reformist movement which, in the last Iranian parliamentary election, wrested thirty percent of the parliament away from Ahmadinejad. The head of the reformist movement is Houssein Mousavi.

The reformists are not liberals. But like liberals, the reformists of Iran want accountability and economic change. Mousavi, the leading candidate has successfully combined the forces of all the reformers into one strong, nearly united, voice. That feat will impact on the decision making process of the Grand Ayatollah. Mousavi succeeded in uniting political factions against the current leadership and he did it without using negative tactics and tricks and without resorting to anti-Muslim platforms.

In addition to having created a formidable political power base for himself, the current leader of the reformists has an impressive personal power base. Houssein Mousavi is well known in Iran and he combines his power with the still lingering power of the previous President and the power of another albeit less powerful Ayatollah, the Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami.

In a recent press conference Mousavi laid two very important issues at the feet of the people of Iran. The issues allowed the people to immediately and easily distinguish between the established leadership and the reformers.

In an absolute break with Ahmadinejad who has publicly denied the Holocaust, Mousavi said that he condemned the murder of the Jews by the Nazis during the Holocaust. And Mousavi welcomed talks with the United States provided that the cost of those talks was not too high for Iran which he defined as having to give up the Iranian nuclear program.

The Iranian reformer was pushing two very hot buttons, not just hot button issues in Iran but hot button issues elsewhere in the world. There is no doubt that Ahmadinejad knows that the Nazis perpetrated a Holocaust, but he uses the issue as a fulcrum to unite Muslims against Israel. And in many ways Mousavi's perspective on nuclear development is exactly the same as Ahmadinejad's perspective. Mousavi just phrased it differently.

The Grand Ayatollah has been very pleased with Ahmadinejad until now. But he has expressed frustration with the fact that Iran's strategy has not been very successful in luring more of the undecided, neutral countries out of the sphere of US influence. That miscalculation by Ahmadinejad has cost Iran dearly in economic terms and in political terms. There have even been Muslim nations which have moved closer to the United States and that new political reconfiguration of the map sharply stings Iran. Iran counted on Muslim loyalty above everything else and has been deeply shocked that the Sunni Muslim world has not rallied around them.

As he makes his decision, as he chooses the man to lead Iran, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei will be thinking about the cost of further isolation. He will be thinking about whether a change in leader will bring about a change in Iran's economy and in Iran's standing in the world. On June 12th we will all be a lot smarter.

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Saudi Leader Disses Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It should be clear to everyone that Iranian/Saudi tensions are deep and becoming more and more tense with each passing day.

On Saturday Saudi Prince al Faisal Turki, the former head of Saudi intelligence, addressed a closed door meeting in Jordan at the University of Jordan's Strategic Studies Center.
The Saudi prince explained that the Iranians are committed to taking the lead on all Islamic issues.

He also said that that the Iranian regime is fragile and that Iran is pursuing "expansionist aspirations at the expense of Arab interests."
He continued, "Arab differences represent a main reason for the increased Iranian role in the region that comes at the expense of crucial Arab interests and issues."
Turki described the Shiite regime by saying "Iran is a paper tiger with claws of steel."

This is a damning critique of Iran from a member of the Saudi royal family.
Al Faisal Turki holds no position in the current government, but he is still an extremely influential member of the Saudi elite.

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Al Qaeda & Binghamton
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The head of al Qaeda in Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the massive killings in Binghamton, NY.

Baitullah Meshud, who just last week claimed that he was unleashing a great act against the White House, has a $5 million reward posted on his head by the US State Department.
On Saturday Mehsud announced to Reuters that his al Qaeda group was responsible for Binghamton.
He said: "I accept responsibility. They were my men. I gave them orders in reaction to U.S. drone attacks."

Meshud was lying, he saw an opportunity and jumped on it.
The killer was not linked to al Qaeda, he was certainly a lone wolf.
There should, however, be no doubt that Mehsud has tried to activate his sleepers in the US.
And there should be no doubt that Mehsud does have sleepers in the United States even if they have not - yet - had the opportunity and means to pull off a terror attack.

We must keep our guard up.
We must stay aware.
We must do everything we can to prevent another attack from falling into place.

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Lone Wolf in Binghamton
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The shooting spree in Binghamton, NY that took so may lives was an unfortunate reality of today America's.
This shooting spree was an act of terror.

Islamic terror is the form we have become most familiar with but terror comes in many forms. This was not Islamic terror, but it was certainly real terror.
This was the type of personal, touching, terror most likely to strike cities like Binghamton, NY.

It is what we call "lone wolf" terror.
The gunman struck out at a visible symbol, a symbol that touched him personally, the gunman had been employeed and was recently let go.

It is almost impossible to anticipate the actions of a lone wolf.
That does not mean that we cannot protect ourselves.
Despite their anger, the lone wolf is easily discourage by security and will quickly choose another target.

We protect ourselves by better protecting our schools, places of worship, agencies and businesses.
Protection wards off the lone wolf forcing the attacker to be find another target.

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Israel US Tensions Emerge
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Much, probably too much, has been said about the emerging tensions between the new Israeli government and the new Obama administration.

Whatever does or does not happen, it is important to realize that all issues of mutual interest between the United States and Israel are now and will remain secure. Mutual interests between the countries have been grounded in a very powerful and unshakeable foundation.

Even under the best of situations, tensions emerge. Tensions existed between the Olmert/Bush government, between the Sharon/Bush government, between the Barak/Clinton government and even between the Netanyahu/Clinton government.
Tensions between governments rarely significantly impact on important issues. Think of them as blips on the diplomatic radar.

The reality is that the very reservations that the Netanyahu government is articulating have already been articulated back in DC by members of Congress.
The reality is that Obama's advisers know full well the limitations of the parties in Israeli/Palestinian negotiations.

Washington can wish for it, but until there is a sincere Palestinian leadership, a leadership with power and backbone, there cannot be a viable Palestinian government.
Wishing will not make it happen.

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Pakistan's al Qaeda Leader
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Baitullah Mehsud is one of the most notorious terrorists in the world.
He is responsible for numerous attacks, including the murder of Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan.

Baitullah is the leader of al Qaeda in Pakistan.
The US State Department has issued a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture.

Yesterday, in an interview with AP, Baitullah took credit for a massive bombing at a police station near Lahore, the second largest city in Pakistan and the capital of the Punjab province.
And that wasn't even the shocking part of the interview.
Baitullah announced that he is planning an attack on the White House that will surprise and dazzle everyone.

There are very few pictures of Baitullah and the pictures we do have are so radically different and varied it will be difficult to identify him.
I can tell you that Baitullah Mehsud is approximately 38 years old, slender and tall - but that won't earn me the $5 million.

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Things to Watch
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 31, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is currently in negotiations with both Syria and the Palestinian Authority. Or so we thought.

At the Arab League Summit now taking place in Qatar both Syria and the Palestinian Authority announced that Israel is not a partner for peace.

They said that Israel does not want peace.

What is happening? Just the day before the Summit began the New Yorker magazine quoting Syrian President Bashar Assad saying the exact opposite about Israel.

Meanwhile, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is boycotting and not attending the Arab League meeting because of Israel.

Mubarak feels that the League members are inappropriately manipulating their roles as negotiators and mediators with Israel on sensitive questions, including the Palestinian question.

And speaking of Israel and Sudan:

an Arabic newspaper in London reported on Monday that the United States told Sudan of the potential bombing of their weapons convoy by Israel months in advance. The paper said that a US leader told his counterpart in Sudan that their weapons convoys were being watched by a third party. In "spy speak" that means someone is going to bomb you.

Strange, interesting, disturbing.

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Al Bashir & the Arab League Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

All speculation ended on Sunday.
Sudanese leader Omar al Bashir landed in Qatar to attend the Arab League Summit.

It was the red carpet treatment for al Bashir.
After arriving he was given a face-to-face meeting with the Emir of Qatar, official host of the Arab League meeting, and with Amr Mousa, head of the Arab League.
It was reported that they drank coffee.

The ICC, the International Criminal Court, aka the International Court for Human Rights in The Hague, had issued an arrest warrant and indictment against al Bashir on March 4th.
The ICC had asked Qatar and the Arab League to live up to their international responsibilities and arrest al Bashir should he attend the Summit.

Sudan has been a member of the 22 state Arab League since January 1956.
Sudan is by no means the most influential player in the League.
Actually, the Sudanese government has embarrassed the Arab League because of their actions in Darfur.

And yet, today, the Arab League put its full support behind Sudan.
Al Bashir successfully re-spun Darfur into an insider versus outsider, and us versus them, scenario.
And when it is us against them the Arab League always circles their wagons.

This decision by the Arab League was certainly anticipated but that doesn't make it any the less a step backward for the Arab world.

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Arab League Summit
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Qatar is hosting the Arab League Summit this coming week.
The Foreign Minister of Qatar has released the Summit agenda to the public.

According to the foreign minister the two main topics under discussion will be:
the Palestinian issue
the International Criminal Court's indictment and arrest warrant of Omar al Bashir of Sudan for mass murder in Darfur

It is not clear whether al Bashir will attend the Summit but he has certainly made his desire to attend very clear.
The International Court has asked Qatar and the Arab League to arrest al Bashir if he presents himself.
The Arab League now has to decide how to balance this tricky issue.

Will the Arab League decide to protect a mass murderer or will they condemn al Bashir?
Their best move would be to do both:
to un-invite al Bashir
to categorically condemn his actions
In that way the Arab League can claim that they respect al Bashir's position and assert Arab unity at the same time.

Anything short of that plan will be a nightmare for all the parties involved.

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Ahmadinejad and Assad Talk
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking

Ahmadinejad of Iran and Assad of Syria had a phone conversation on Friday. The conversation was made public by the official Iranian press. Ahmadinejad was coaxing the Syrian leader. Ahmadinejad was assuring Assad that they would win over the West. Ahmadinejad said that a united Islamic world would be strong. Ahmadinejad said that the current world conditions will hurt the United States and the "Zionists" and it will help Muslims.

Here are some of the quotes: "The strong camp of friendly countries such as Iran and Syria are on their way to victory."
"The regional conditions are working in favor of the Muslim countries and against the Zionist regime and its allies."

Ahmadinejad used important images from the Koran. He referred to Muslims as being "in the same fortress." He asserted that they can "take advantage of abilities and opportunities in a wise manner" and in so doing defeat "the criminals of the Zionist regime (which) will eventually be put to death."

This sliver of Muslim diplomatic dialogue is very helpful. We were given a behind-the-scenes look at the true relationship between Syria and Iran.

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Israel Strikes Sudan
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It's been confirmed:
Israel successfully attacked a convoy carrying weapons in Sudan.

The weapons were destined for Gaza.
The weapons were traveling through Sudan to Egypt and from there they would be smuggled into Gaza.
39 people were killed when Israel sent out four F-15s to attack the convoy.

The mission was a direct message from Israel to Iran:
When Israel feels threatened, Israel will strike - even deep into foreign countries.
Israel has exceptional Intel and Israel will act on that Intel.
Do not mess with Israel.

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US & Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The House Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs and the Middle East received a briefing yesterday by Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman.

Feltman spoke about the trip he and Daniel Shapiro, the National Security Director in charge of Middle East and North African Affairs, just took to Syria.
Congress and the Committee are concerned:

They fear that during the visit the US showed itself to be weak
They fear that the US is signaling a change in policy

Feltman argued that talk is not weakness.

Feltman argued that the discussion with the Syrians were intended to reiterate US policy and to let Syria know that it must stop arming Hezbollah and protecting Hamas.
Feltman's presentation before Congress and the Committee displayed a deeper understanding of the issues than his visit did, which appeared to be nothing more than a frivolous gesture.

Feltman made it clear to the Committee that Syria is trying to achieve two opposing goals:
Syria is trying to come out of the diplomatic cold
Syria is not changing its behavior in any way other than with indirect talks with Israel that were brokered through Turkey

The question remains: Has the United States elevated Syria by talking to Syria?
That is an issue Feltman did not address.
The Syrians would answer "yes."
Syria even threw the United States a proverbial bone by asking that the US run the indirect talks with Israel along with Turkey.

Double messages are the norm for Syria.

Syria wants it all (like the entire Golan Heights) but wants to give nothing in return.

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Speaking About Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The House Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs and the Middle East received a briefing yesterday by Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman.
Feltman spoke about the trip he and Daniel Shapiro, the National Security Director in charge of Middle East and North African Affairs, just took to Syria.

Congress and the Committee are concerned:
They fear that during the visit the US showed itself to be weak
They fear that the US is signaling a change in policy

Feltman argued that talk is not weakness.
Feltman argued that the discussion with the Syrians were intended to reiterate US policy and to let Syria know that it must stop arming Hezbollah and protecting Hamas.
Feltman's presentation before Congress and the Committee displayed a deeper understanding of the issues than his visit did, which appeared to be nothing more than a frivolous gesture.

Feltman made it clear to the Committee that Syria is trying to achieve two opposing goals:
Syria is trying to come out of the diplomatic cold
Syria is not changing its behavior in any way other than with indirect talks with Israel that were brokered through Turkey

The question remains: Has the United States elevated Syria by talking to Syria?
That is an issue Feltman did not address.
The Syrians would answer "yes".
Syria even threw the United States a proverbial bone by asking that the US run the indirect talks with Israel along with Turkey.

Double messages are the norm for Syria.
Syria wants it all (like the entire Golan Heights) but wants to give nothing in return.

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Syria Has A Question
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad has a question:
What is the United States really planning on doing?

Assad wants to know what, if anything, is up the sleeve of the new administration.
Is the United States really trying to make amends with Syria or is the United States really just testing Syria?

Assad does not have the answer.

Neither does the United States.
But Assad does have a plan.
In classic Assad style, he will wait and see.

Neither President Obama nor his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, are clear as to the orientation the United States should take vis a vis certain Arab states, Syria among them. So the US is playing its own game of wait and see by laying out different possible scenarios and hoping that some country or another will swoop down and run with one of them.

Now comes the next question:
Who can wait longer?

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In Iran They Do Not Remember
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 23, 2009

I've Been thinking:

The Ayatollah Khomeini's widow died on Sunday in Iran, she was 93 years old.
She was known as The Mother of the Revolution.

The death of the Ayatollah's widow is of great import.
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran ousted the Shah of Iran.
It was then that the Iranians captured the United States Embassy in Teheran and held Americans hostage for 444 days.

This death marks another benchmark for Iran.
Public mourning for The Mother of the Revolution points our how removed the people of today's Iran are from the Iranians who lived through the 1979 Revolution.
Very few Iranians today remember either the Shah or the Ayatollah.

Never the less, the Islamic Regime will try to use the death as a way to stir up the passions and excitement of the once dynamic Islamic movement.
Their attempt will inevitably fail.
For the vast majority of Iranian, probably 80% of the population, the Revolution is synonymous with rhetoric.

The death of The Mother of the Revolution is a sign of just how far Iran has traveled since 1979.
For the West, it is a very good sign.

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Syria On The Record in Arabic
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem appeared on al Jazeera on Saturday.

He was there to counter a popular rumor that Syria and Israel are in the midst of a peace negotiation.

The Syrian foreign minister made his point clearly.
Moallem said, "Syria is in a state of conflict, still at war with Israel and the occupied territories."

He said: "It is natural that Syria will always act to obtain bargaining chips; this, along with its belief that peace cannot be achieved solely through diplomatic channels but also through support of the resistance. Resistance is a legitimate right of the people."

Understanding the message behind hidden in the rhetoric of these carefully worded statements is an essential tool for understanding the objectives of Arab leadership.

Pursuing peace is essential for Israel, but Israel must be aware of where that same objective falls in the priority list of Syria and other Arab countries.

Western diplomats and leaders would also benefit greatly from listening to leaders like Moallem when they speak, in Arabic, to their people.

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A Persian Holiday Called Nowruz
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while I think it is important to take the time to describe, in detail, certain Islamic traditions in an attempt to understand a culture that is significantly different from and certainly foreign to, our own.

March 20 is the first day of spring, it is the vernal equinox.
Ancient culture embraced this concept. It is the time in which there are equal amounts of day and night.

Iranian culture or better yet, Persian culture, created a holiday around this day filled with tradition, ceremony and activity.
The holiday is called Nowruz and is best translated as "a new day."
This is not a Muslim holiday, it is a holiday that comes into tradition from the Zoroastrians, the dominant pre-Muslim culture in Persia.

Everyone connected with that region celebrates Nowruz.
It is a celebration of a new year, it is the beginning of spring, the beginning of life.
Spring cleaning, bonfires and parties are all celebratory events.

President Barack Obama sent a video message to the Persian people commemorating the day. The message was subtitled in Persian, sent out to select media outlets and put up on YOU TUBE.
Israel's President Shimon Peres sent his own celebratory message to the people of Iran.

Presidents Obama and Peres reached out in the spirit of the day symbolically offering their hands in peace. It was their way of asking Iran to give up the threats and the violence and to invite her to join the community of peace loving nations.

Iran did not respond seriously.
Through a spokesman the Iranians sent a message saying that if the United States is serious, they will atone for decades of offenses done to Iran. The Iranians said that they are open to change and willing to wait and see if any real change occurs.

Happy Nowruz.

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A No Go For Shalit
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It comes as no surprise.
Israel's indirect talks with Hamas to free captive soldier Gilad Shalit have failed.

The given is that negotiating with Hamas by way of a third party almost always ends in failure.
Talks of this sort succeed when neither side expects very much.
This time, both sides wanted a lot.

Expectations were high at one point. It seemed as if a resolution was close at hand. And then, just as the negotiations approached the final stages, Hamas did what it often does. Hamas overplayed their hand and it all collapsed.

Two factors explain why Hamas' perspective became warped enough to warrant a last minute change in demands.
# 1: The end was in sight. Hamas realized that Israel could "taste" Gilad Shalit's release. That emboldened Hamas. Hamas believed that they could ask for pie in the sky because Israel wanted the release so very badly and because the end was so near.
# 2: Hamas kept tabs on the Israeli press and witnessed the public pressure that was being placed on the political leadership to come to a resolution. They became convinced that Israeli leadership would bend.

Hamas never realized that Israel had lines drawn in the sand.
Gilad Shalit remains captive, 999, 1,000, 1,001 days and counting.

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Saying No to the World Court
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Amir Moussa, the head of the Arab League, is going against the International Court of Criminal Justice.

The ICC, also known as the World Court is the court that prosecutes war criminals.
The Court issued the arrest warrant for al Bashir last week.
The warrant was issued because of al Bashir's direct and indirect role in the murder of hundreds of thousands people in Darfur.

Al Bashir was to be arrested at an Arab League Summit expected to take place in Qatar at the end of March.
Moussa has rejected the request to arrest the Sudanese leader.
The hosts of the upcoming event in Qatar have also said publicly that they will not arrest al Bashir.
This leads to a very problematic situation.

Al Bashir is going to Qatar to plead his case and to make certain that he has broad support within the Arab world.
An Arab front united against the ICC and de facto supporting genocide and mass murder is not something the World Court expected.

The West needs to start to work its magic here.
The West needs to put its own united, collective, foot down.
The West needs to demand that the Arab world comply with the decision of the World Court.
Diplomatically, all it takes is rescinding al Bashir's invite to the Summit.
That way, the League and the Qatar hosts would be neither arresting al Bashir nor blatantly rejecting the arrest warrant.
That is the art of diplomacy.

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OPEC & Iran Are Worried
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and several other OPEC countries are worried.
They think there is too much oil out there and they want to cut back production.

Here is the fundamental problem:
Iran wants to limit production to increase the price of oil per barrel.
They want to use the oil card as a political tool.
They are also embarking on a huge natural gas campaign.

Iran intends to get as much natural gas as possible, convert it to Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and become a world class supplier. The Iranians just signed a contact with China for $3.2 billion. China will pay Iran and China will build the LNG technology conversion and Iran will try to prove that they can be the world’s best conduit.

OPEC and others are not buying the Iranian argument.
They do not want to rock the very volatile oil market too much.
They are not altering or limiting oil production quotas because to do so would be to send the market into disarray.

The US responded to increased prices by significantly reducing consumption.
That reaction totally flabbergasted OPEC and brought about their decision not about to mess with the current market.

Let the Iranians suffer.

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The Palestinian Stalemate
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and Fatah are in a deadlock.

Both Hamas and Fatah have had numerous meetings with Egypt in order to come to some sort of understanding or at least an agreement to continue to disagree.

The objective is to create a unity government of Palestinians.
The basic problem is that Hamas will not accept any compromise on Israel. They will not accept Israel's right to exist nor will they honor previous agreements. Numerous compromises were suggested.

The simplest suggestion was to simply be silent on the issue of Israel.
Fatah would agree and Hamas would be silent.
Thankfully, Hamas cannot be silent on the issue of Israel.
Any compromise on Israel's right to exist is a violation of the fundamental credo of Hamas.

So the Palestinians are at a stalemate.
The newest Truman Center poll shows that 54% to 44%, Palestinians believe that attacking Israel is okay.

For Abbas, Fatah and those promoting coexistence that is a damning set of numbers.

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Politics in Iran Heat Up
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An election is scheduled to take place in Iran on June 12.
In Iran the only vote that counts is the vote cast by The Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei.

Even though Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has not declared his official candidacy, it is assumed that, based on comments and statements, The Supreme Leader will tap him for another term.

Iran's reformers are in crisis.
The reformers have 4 candidates for president.
Four candidates is a recipe for failure.
The job of the reformers is to convince The Supreme Leader that they can maintain the religious conservatism of Iran and improve Iran's dire economic conditions.

Ahmadinejad has the religious angle on his side, but he has failed on the economic track. If the reformers can make a convincing argument for economic growth they might have a chance, but not if they are fractionalized.

A possible contender to Ahmadinejad, former president and Ayatollah Muhammad Khatami, has rescinded his candidacy in order to solidify the candidacy of former Prime Minister Hussein Mousavi.
The Khatami contingent hopes that this move will prove to The Supreme Leader that they are both politically unified and politically wise and that he will bestow his vote upon them.

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Unity Among Palestinians?
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Mention US foreign policy and Hamas in the same sentence and I see red flags waving.

Red Flag # 1: Senator John Kerry visits Damascus, Syria and announces that the Syrians can play a role in uniting Hamas and Fatah.

The Syrians back Hamas, the Syrians are in cahoots with Hamas, the Syrians rely on Hamas.

Red Flag # 2: Last week's Donors' Conference in Egypt where the US pledged $900 million in aid to Gaza and the West Bank (300 million for Gaza, 600 million for the West Bank). Yesterday, finally, a formal statement was released saying that the giving of the money is not an absolute given.

No money can get to Gaza without Hamas.
It is against US law to give money to a terror organization.
Hamas is a terror organization.
There is no way to give money that money without benefiting the terrorists.

Red Flag # 3: Now the Obama administration has said that should the Palestinians establish a unity government between Hamas and Fatah that does not meet a basic standard (i.e., recognizing Israel as a minimum) then the Administration will have to rethink their stance on the aid.

Hamas will not and cannot accept Israel.
The question is if Hamas and Fatah can agree to disagree and still form a unity government. If that happens, they will loose Western support.

I am becoming more and more skeptical of United States policy towards Hamas.

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Iran Predicts the Fall Of Capitalism
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Ahmadinejad announced that the downturn in the world’s economy was a sign of the fall of capitalism.

The Iranian continued his economic discourse continued by saying that the West has already witnessed the destruction of the godless socialism and will now see the fall of capitalism.
His conclusion is that the only system of government that will remain is Islamic rule.

Where Ahmadinejad is wrong is in thinking that the capital markets that he is assuming will fail because of Allah, are actually destroying his own economy. Iran is suffering miserably because of the economic downturn, most especially because of the drop in the price of oil.

Because Iran has never really invested in the infrastructure that keeps an economy solvent and allows for robust spring backs after economic downturns, Iran will take even longer to recover from their economic suffering than will Western countries.

Ahmadinejad can blame Allah for the capitalism if he so wishes but that might also mean that Allah has turned his back on the Islamic Republic called Iran.

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They Threw a Shoe at Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Remember when President Bush was attacked by a show thrower in Ira?

Well, ever since then, shoe throwers have been popping up all over.
We just haven't been hearing about them.

No one heard about the shoe thrower in Iran, the guy who threw a shoe at Ahmadinejad in Urma. The story was not even covered in the Iranian mainstream press. That's because the Iranian press is controlled by the religious leadership of Iran and they most certainly did not want the story covered.

The story was, however, released in the local Urma press one time and then it was muzzled. The people who finally got hold of the story and started spreading it around were the bloggers of Iran.

The number of bloggers in Iran is enormous and their skill is highly developed.

It is through the blogosphere that we find out what is really happening in Iran.
It is there that the alternative news gets read.
It is in the blogosphere that the real spirit of Iran lives.

Iran loved their shoe thrower, even though the shoe was only thrown at Ahmadinejad's car.

Thanks to Iranian bloggers, the thud has now been heard around the world.

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Palestinian Poll-Hamas Up
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

New Palestinian polls are out and as was predicted, Hamas is doing very well.

The outcome of a face-to-face poll of 1,270 people conducted between
March 5-7 on how they would vote if a presidential election were held today:
47% would vote for Ismael Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas
45% would vote for Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of Fatah and current president of the PA.

Recent polls show that since the last poll were conducted, Hamas is gaining in popularity.
As a party, Hamas went up from 33 % from 28%.
Fatah still remains the largest party but fell in numbers from 42% to 40%.

Everyone is dwarfed by a non candidate.
Marwan Barghouti, now in an Israeli prison, would get 61% of the Palestinian vote if he were to run for president.

Hamas gained in strength in the West Bank where Fatah is in control but has diminished their strength in Gaza where they are in control.

What does this all mean?
It means that it is very dangerous for Israel and the West to continue pursuing their policy of courting Abbas.
If Palestinian elections had been held as originally scheduled on January 10th, Abbas would probably have emerged as the minority leader.

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Palestinian Disarray
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Think Palestinian Authority, think upheaval.
Think Palestinian Authority, think disarray.

Palestinian Prime Minister Sallam Fayyed submitted a letter of resignation to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday.
Abbas promptly rejected the letter.

Fayyed was never elected to office, he was selected.
Abbas appointed him prime minister in 2007, right after Hamas ousted Fatah from Gaza. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is the person who had been elected to be prime minister, but after the coup Haniyeh was relegated to leading only Hamas and only from Gaza.

Ever since then Hamas has been demanding Fayyed's resignation claiming that he was not legally entitled to the position.
This is an internal debate.
The law provides an interesting view. The law does not specifically state that the president cannot dismiss the prime minister, so President Abbas dismissed Prime Minister Haniyeh.
The law does permit the president to appoint a prime minister, so President Abbas appointed Prime Minister Fayyed.

Fayyed resigned as a gesture to Hamas, hoping to entice them into a unity government.
For the United States it was a risky gesture.
The United States sent a quick message to Abbas informing him that they want Fayyed to be the person to manage the $900 million they are donating to the Palestinians. Fayyed is a former World Bank executive and knows the importance of paper trails and accountable spending.
The United States trusts Sallam Fayyed.

Think Palestinian Authority, think, what a mess.

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Durban II, The Controversy Begins
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Durban II will take place in Switzerland from April 20-25.
Durban II is intended to be a follow up to the original Durban Conference which took place in Durban, in 2001.

Israel and Canada have already said that they will not be attending Durban II.
Durban has a history of turning into one long ranting tirade against Israel. At heart, Durban is a convention of anti-Semitism. The Obama administration says that the US will not participate if the Conference resolutions are anti-Semitic.

In a very uncharacteristic move The EU announced to the UN Commission on Human Rights, the body that oversees the Durban conference, that they will not tolerate the flagrant anti-Semitism that has been permeating the resolutions.

The Dutch, Belgian and Italian ambassadors have all made it clear that they will not accept these resolutions, either.
They also said that they will not accept the idea that defaming a religion is the same as defaming people. They made it clear that religions and ideas do not have the same status as people in understanding human rights.

The religion angle stems from the Muslim world which is still smoldering about the caricatures of Mohammed that appeared in the European press.
The Muslim world wants to stop this from happening again.
If it does happen, they want the act to be labeled as an abuse of human rights.

Durban II is only around the corner and things are starting to heat up.

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Saudis Say Fight Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal addressed a group of Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo, Egypt the other day.

Faisal discussed several issues - and then, he made an appeal.

The Saudi foreign minister called for Arab unity against Iran.

Prince Faisal asked the Arab leaders present to stand together and confront Iran. He said that together they could accomplish what individual countries cannot do alone, he said that Iran is one of the greatest threats to the region.

Interestingly, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was told exactly the same thing just the day before by many of Arab foreign ministers she met with.

Arab leaders are skeptical of US foreign policy in the new administration.

They are afraid that US policy will take Iran out of the dog house and put it back into the sun and that fear was alluded to by Prince Faisal in his remarks.

If Iran is permitted to regain a position of prominence Arab leadership is petrified that it will come at the expense of other Arab relations and interaction with the United States.

Faisal does not want to lose favor in the eyes of the US.

Faisal and other Arab leaders know that Iran will make special demands and will manipulate the regional point position away from Saudi Arabia.

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Hamas Rejects Donors Conference
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has rejected the Donors' Conference that raised $5 billion for Gaza and humanitarian aid.

Hamas called the Conference an act of extortion in order to strengthen Abbas.

Here is the issue at hand:
Hamas has control over Gaza and their influence is growing.
Hamas wants international recognition.
Abbas has international recognition.

Abbas does not have control over Gaza which means that he does not have overall control of the entire Palestinian pie which is what he wants.

The crux of the issue is the dispute between the PA and Hamas.

This conflict will not simply be smoothed over.

The tensions are deeper than the West realizes, they symbolize the real inner conflicts between Palestinians.

Other differences should not be minimized, like the deep religious differences and the deep political chasms which have to do with families, power and money - but this is paramount.

Bottom line is that in Gaza, Hamas is in control.
If Hamas is not in control, it will not happen.
And Hamas was not in control of the Donors' Conference.

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Clinton in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Israel.
Clinton met with many leaders and got an earful of about Iran.
In typical Hillary fashion, she gave as good as she got.

Hillary spoke repeatedly about the Two State Solution.
It is an issue that Bibi Netanyahu has been reticent to endorse.
Because of his reticence and his inability to articulate a clear and positive stand Bibi is forcing Kadima, which takes a firm stand on the issue, out of his coalition.

Netanyahu obfuscates.
His often repeated comment is: "I think there is broad agreement inside Israel and outside that the Palestinians should have the ability to govern their lives but not to threaten ours." That is actually the quote from his Washington Post interview with Lally Weymouth.

Clinton made it repeatedly clear in the press conferences she held throughout her visit that the United States believes that establishing a Palestinian state next to secure and defensible Israel is a priority.

Clinton was articulating the thesis of the cast majority of Israelis.
So why is Bibi still sitting on the literal and figurative fence on this issue?
He does not want to alienate those of his allies who sit to the right of him.

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OPEC Says No To Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is again taking it on the chin again.
This time they are getting it from the Sunnis in the region.

According to a report issued on Sunday by IRNA, the Islamic Republic News Agency, Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hussein Nozari has been informed that OPEC has rejected Iran's appeal to limit oil production.
This is bad news for Iran because they cannot manage with the current prices and need to limit output in order to increase the price per barrel.

OPEC has even sent out a message saying that at their March meeting, limiting oil output will not even be up for discussion.

There are reasons for their decision.
The first reason is that everyone in OPEC wants the price to increase, but if a limit is set there is an incentive to violate it and make more money. Countries will cheat and that will challenge the very objective of the cartel.

The second reason is Shiite versus Sunni tensions.
Iran is Shiite, the rest of OPEC is Sunni and they want to apply pressure and ultimately pain to the Shiite leaders of Iran.

We must neither forget nor minimize the role of internal issues in the Muslim world. More often than not, these internal issues are the most significant motivational forces in the region.

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Pope Demands Bishop Apologize
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Richard Williamson has become a household name.
He is the Catholic Bishop, recently elevated by the Pope, who had been part of a traditionalist group that had been removed from mainstream Catholicism. The group was just recently taken back into the fold.

Richard Williamson is a Holocaust denier.
He believes that only a few thousand Jews died in Auschwitz and that there were no gas chambers and no mass murder. Now that is back in the fold. Williamson must conform to the Pope's doctrines.

Richard Williamson must recant his public pronouncements denying the Holocaust. On Thursday he made a public statement saying that he regretted the pain he had caused others by his statements.

The Vatican told Williamson that what he said was not enough.
The Vatican told Williamson that merely regretting the pain is not enough.
The Pope is insisting that Williamson retract his comments about denying the Holocaust.

The Vatican is the expert on confession.
The Vatican knows a partial confession when they hear one.

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Another Sunni Shiite Rift
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The inner conflicts within Islam are getting more and more pronounced.
And the West remains oblivious, uninterested, or simply uninformed.

Case in point:
Morocco just recalled their ambassador to Iran.
Why? Because Iran insulted Bahrain last week.

Here's a recap:
In the middle of negotiations between the Iran and Bahrain, Iran ridiculed the Shah of Iran for liberating the 14th Province which is today's Bahrain. And so Bahrain walked out on the negotiations.

Some background:
It seems that earlier in the week The Supreme Leader, The Ayatollah Khamenei, said that Bahrain was truly Iran.

What we have now is a very big Sunni Shiite rift.
Bahrain is Sunni and Iran is Shiite.
Sunni newspapers throughout the Muslim world have decried Iran's arrogance, asking how dare Iran encroach on Bahrain sovereignty?

Morocco acted in defense of their fellow Sunni Muslim brothers and withdrew their ambassador.
In the meantime, Ahmadinejad sent a note to the Emir of Bahrain asking that they come back to the table to talk about natural gas. He did not apologize, he did discuss the great history of Iran.

This episode is not over yet.

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Iran's Democracy?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On June 12th Iranians will go to the polls.

Democracy in Iran is a concept very different from the democracy we know and depend on. In Iranian democracy the winner is predetermined, it is the person chosen winner by The Supreme Leader.

That is the way it has always been in Iranian elections and I am not expecting any changes come June 12th.

There is, however, one slight wrinkle in the upcoming election.
There is a reformist candidate running against Ahmadinejad, he is none other than the former president of Iran, Mohammed Khatami.

Reform, like democracy, has very different connotations in Iran than it does in the West. In Iran, reform relates exclusively to economic responsibility. That's it, nothing else.

Even though The Supreme Leader has tapped him to continue to reign supreme, the Ahmadinejad campaign is running scared.

This week two of Khatami's websites were shut down.

There was nothing taboo on the sites and they was nothing denigrating the current leadership. All they did was advocate Khatami's positions on economic issues in Iran.

They were knocked off the air not by hackers or by kids, they were knocked off by the official government agency that regulates the Iranian internet.

In Iran's democracy, things like this happen all the time.

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In Math We Round Up
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In math we round up.
When I heard through the grape vine, and later confirmed, that next week the US State Department intends on giving $900 million to Gaza I was in shock.

A billion dollars to Hamas, how is that possible?
The claim is that the money is not going to Hamas and that, besides, it is only 900 million not a billion.

Well here is some news for you.
Any money sent to Gaza goes to Hamas, it goes to them in either smaller and larger percents.

The reality is that the vast majority in Gaza is a silent majority.
According to surveys most Gazans overwhelmingly support Abbas, but they know, like we know, that Abbas lacks the authority to force Hamas to tow the line.
Those who are fearless enough to speak up have two points to make:
# 1: do not support Hamas
# 2: Arabs, do not give in to the United States

And here we are, giving out money like its halvah.

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Iran Will Open Nuke Site on Wednesday
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Iran is scheduled to hold a ceremonial opening for their brand new, big, nuclear power plant in Busher.
The Russian who built the plant will be on hand for the celebration.

Both the Russians and the Iranians have emphasized that it is just a ceremony. They want to make it clear that there are still some elements that need completion before the plant is fully operational, but the bulk of the work is done and what remains are the finishing touches.
This is a huge event for Iran.

At the time that the Iranians announced the nuclear plant ceremonies Gerhard Schroeder, the former leader of Germany, was in Iran.
Schroeder held a press conference and made his own announcement.
Schroeder was unequivocal in his declaration that there is no question about the history of the Holocaust - it definitely happened and 6 millions Jews were murdered.

These two events might seem unconnected, but they are very much connected.
These two events demonstrate the inversion of priorities and the importance of issues.
These two events point out the influence of and the interaction between the West and Iran and highlight how dramatic the synapse is on essential issues on both sides.

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Kerry In Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

John Kerry just finished a week long trip to the Middle East.
Kerry visited some important places and met with some important people. Probably most critical for him were his visit to Gaza and his visit to Damascus.

Remember, Kerry is the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
This was not a fact finding trip, in his position Kerry receives all the facts he needs with the snap of his fingers.
Kerry was in the Middle East serving as a high level messenger for President Barack Obama and rest assured, the message was delivered and it was received.

Hamas leaders in Gaza did not meet with Kerry but they were elated that he was there. Syria was ecstatic. All the Arab leaders in the region saw this as a genuine gesture, a reaching out to better understand the situation.

After meeting with Syrian leaders Bashar Assad, Kerry held a press conference. During the press conference Kerry suggested that Syria can play a key role in creating a Palestinian Unity government.

Until the press conference, I had not realized that a Palestinian Unity government was an objective of the United States.
The last time there was a Palestinian Unity government the United States was at the forefront of an international boycott because Hamas refused to accept Israel's right to exist. And the vast majority of the Western world signed on.

If this is a policy of the new administration it is a policy that needs to be seriously questioned.

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Bibi's Options
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Benjamin Bibi Netanyahu has been asked by Israel's president to form the new Israeli government by coalition.

There are only three options now.

# 1: To create a centrist broad coalition.
In that coalition will be Likud, Kadima and either Labor or Yisrael Beitaynu, the party led by Lieberman, or both. Despite the press coverage, Lieberman can easily join a centrist government, he has done it in the past.
This is the best option.

# 2: To create a narrow coalition leaning heavy to the right.
Reality dictates that such a coalition will soon collapse. Ideology will get in the way of governing.

# 3: If no coalition can be created, new elections will be called
It is not clear what the results of a new vote will be, there is now ay of now knowing if the Israeli voting public will choose to punish the small parties or reward the medium parties.

At this point I can offer only analysis, there is no predicting what will happen next.

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Bahrain Walks Out On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

You would think that Bahrain and Iran would be the best of friends.
You would be wrong.

Bahrain and Iran are engulfed in a serious diplomatic tiff.
The break occurred as the two countries were finalizing a natural gas deal. Bahrain walked out on Iran in a tizzy.

So what happened?
Iran is Iran is Iran.
Iran needs processed natural gas and so they approached Bahrain, which would make perfect sense.
The two countries got as far as ironing out the details of the deal when the Iranians felt it incumbent upon themselves to dis the Shah of Iran.
It is classic Iranian behavior.

The Iranians are constantly repeating what a big mistake it was to liberate the 14th province of Iran, which is today's Bahrain.
The Iranian negotiators listed the liberation as one of the greatest mistakes committed by the Shah.
That is when the negotiators picked themselves up and walked out.

I find it fascinating to see the lens through which Iran views local and regional issues.
For Iran, it is all about Iran and Shiite Islam - everything else is significantly less relevant.

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Arms Shipped to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Last Friday Cypriot authorities stopped a ship sailing under a Cypriot flag.

The ship was suspected of violating the UN embargo on arms to Hamas.
Yesterday, five days later the ship was finally permitted to leave Cyprus and sail for anywhere - only without its cargo.

The cargo has been unloaded and brought to a military base. It was material that can be used to make weapons. One source says the material included shell casings for tank shells.

Raids of this type are of critical importance in shutting down terror supply networks around the world. Even more important than stopping the arms shipment is following the money trail. That is how authorities can shut down the entire system.

The trail will, of course, inevitably lead to Iran.
But how does it get from one place to the other and finally land on a ship headed to Gaza.
The answer lies at the end of the money trail.

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Israeli Politics: Never in the Bag
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In Israeli politics there is no such thing as a shoe-in.
For proof you need to look no further than the results of the recent election and the subsequent deal makings and back door politicking taking place in Jerusalem.

The end game is forming a government.
The means to the end is coalition building.
Israeli President Shimon Peres is now performing his only official duty as President of Israel.
He is interviewing the party leaders and taking stock of what each leader projects about their ability to form a coalition and with whom.

The party most courted right now is headed by Avigdor Lieberman.
Lieberman has fascist leanings but he is the most politically realistic politician in the game. His primary issue is actually civil marriage and that is why the religious parties have united against him. Lieberman believes in a Palestinian state and is practical about swapping land in Israel for settlement blocs.

To his list of detractors add some of the nationalist parties and you have a minority anti-Lieberman bloc.
However, those to the left of center shouting anyone but Lieberman have already served in a government alongside Lieberman in both the Sharon and Olmert governments and none of that turned out too badly.

I recognize the dangers that Lieberman poses, but history has proven that beyond his two major issues upon which he is unbending, Avigdor Lieberman can be very flexible.

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Iran Wants to Play Chess
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomacy has often been compared to game playing.
Usually, it is outsiders making the comparison, rarely is it the players themselves.

On Sunday Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, was quoted by INRA, an official Iranian news agency, saying that the United States should stop boxing with Iran and learn a new game ... chess.

This is a powerful statement.
First, Iranians believe that chess was invented in Persia.
Second, Larijani claims that through chess, not through boxing, a solution might be reached between the United States and Iran.

I agree - with one caveat.
To play chess competitively, the opponents need to understand each other.
To box competitively, brute force, speed, agility, strength and intimidation are what is needed.
In order to play chess with Iran, the United States must first learn much more about Iran.

I suggest that the United States learns how to play against Iran before changing the game.

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Abbas Bashing Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few months Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has been conducting a very serious and problematic campaign against Israel.

This campaign came to a head last week, a week before the Israeli election.

In short, Abbas has been bashing Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu.
Abbas met with French, British and Italian leaders.

His message to them went like this:
"You refused to fully cooperate with such a government because Hamas did not meet the Quartet's conditions on ending terrorism and recognizing Israel."

"You will have to adopt a similar stance toward an Israeli government that will oppose the creation of a Palestinian state and genuine negotiations over the core issues of a permanent settlement."

Abbas is telling Western leaders to treat Likud like Hamas.
How warped is that, even if you disagree with Likud, it is a mainstream democratic party.

Why has no one called Abbas on this perversion of reality?

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Oil Prices Drop Bad for Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday at the NY Mercantile Commodities Market, oil dropped to an all time multi year-low of $33.98 a barrel.

There are many reasons for the drop.

Most of them are connected to the stimulus package and demonstrate the lack of faith investors have in the short term market.

The drop of course also illustrates the bear side of the market.

Do not be completely disheartened - there is some good to be found in the drop in oil prices.

The drop tells us that Iran is really suffering and will suffer some more.

The OPEC cartel can not single handedly alter the price by limiting supply.

This is good for the West and good for politics.

This drop also proves that the control the oil producing nations think they have is becoming more and more illusionary.

The role that real markets play is as important, if not more important, than the supply side.
We have moved one step closer to freeing ourselves from the shackles of oil producing countries.

Remember: That which hurts Iran, helps the West.

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John Kerry Is Off To Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Senator John Kerry is headed to Syria where he will meet Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Kerry is not embarking on a fact finding mission.
Kerry is head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Kerry does not need any information, if he did all he has to do is snap his fingers.
This trip by the former Democratic presidential nominee is a diplomatic mission, Obama style.

Two things are happening here:
# 1: Obama wants to send a very clear message of openness to Syria and the entire region signifying that the United States is opening doors. The visit by Kerry is an important gesture in that direction. Syria is walking a tightrope between Iran and the West and could go either way, so courting Syria is a wise diplomatic move by the new US president.

#2: The more significant reason for this trip by Kerry is to help the United States regain involvement and importance in the region. For the past 18 months the major Western player in the region has been Sarkozy of France who has been doing a very good job of moving Western priorities and interests along in the Middle East. This week alone, France has had high level meetings in Egypt and in Jordan. French leadership has played an essential role in setting acceptable limits on Iran.

Obama and the United States are embarking on a mission to wrestle back the mantel of leadership throughout the world.
Kerry is a key player in the fulfillment of that mission.

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Today's Elections
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It's Election Day in Israel.
Of the 33 parties running for the 120 seat parliament, only about 11 will succeed and be seated in the Israeli Knesset.

In this election there are:
5,278,985 people are registered to vote
9263 polling stations
7am is when the polling stations open and 10pm is when they close
When Machiavelli said "politics make strange bedfellows" he might have had a premonition about Israeli politics.
The Holocaust Survivor Party has merged with the Cannabis Party.

Voting is not mechanical in Israel, it is much simpler. There are neither computers nor machines. There is no curtain. A corrugated board stands on a desk separating the voter from curious observers.
The Israeli voter selects a small sheet of paper that looks a lot like Monopoly money, inserts it into an envelope and then walks over to a blue box with slit on top and a 7 branched menorah on the side and drops the envelope inside.
The papers are not imprinted with the names of the various parties, they display the letters that symbolize each party. It can get confusing.

This will be the 18th Knesset.
It is a historic time in Israel's history.

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Tuesday's Election
By Micah Halpern

February 9, 2009

I've BeenThinking:

About Tuesday's elections in Israel

This election is still up in the air.
Anyone who predicts results is projecting his/her own wishes rather than predicting.

It is all up in the air is because 22% of Israeli voters are still undecided.
Those 22% are centrists.
That means they are in perpetual motion, swaying between the slight right of center and the slight left of center.

The extreme right has gained popularity and power and will become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset.
The founding parties of the nation, Labor and the Religious Zionists, have continued to dwindle to the point where they now have almost no influence on Israeli politics.

When it comes to military and political decision making there will be no discernible difference between Likud and Kadima.
They fight bitterly, but it is more style than substance that differentiates between the parties - at heart they are the same.

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Farce in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Two vignettes about Hamas.
These things you can't make up.

Egypt stepped up and prevented a Hamas courier from transporting 11 million in cold cash - 9 million in US dollars and 2 million in Euros - from Egypt into Gaza.
The courier was part of a group of Hamas leaders that had come to speak with the Egyptians about negotiating their cease fire with Israel. After the group was caught one man stayed back and deposited the money in an Egyptian bank while everyone else crossed back to the Gaza side.

At just about the same time as the courier bust, Israel was boarding a ship headed to Gaza with food and health supplies. The ship was named Tali, And the word spread around the world was that Tali was supposed to have been filled with 60 tons of supplies in order to help the needy of Gaza. It sailed under a Tago flag, a small country in West Africa. Upon boarding, Israel discovered that the vessel carried only 150 bottles of water and a few dozen pounds of and medicine.

What a farce.
Smuggling money into Gaza and stealing the money intended for supplies to help the needy of Gaza.
That's Hamas for you.

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Iran's Home Grown Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announcement a new arrival - the Iranians have a new satellite.
Like proud parents, the Iranians even supplied footage of their newest production.

This satellite is totally home grown.
The Iranians made every part of this satellite.
Until now Iran was hiring, buying and commissioning the components needed for satellite technology.
Iran has reached a new high in their technological capability.

This new satellite is called OMID which means hope in Persian.
It is a three month satellite, it will orbit and then it will be replaced.
The OMID was launched into orbit by the Safir satellite rocket and the images on Iranian state TV were very impressive.

Anyone who thinks the Iranians are a backward people is seriously mistaken.
This satellite is further proof that Iran is home to great technical minds.

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Israel Delivers A Message
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has begun to strike back at Hamas.

Now the questions arise:
Is Israel toying with Hamas?
Is Israel working off of bad intel?

This is what is happening:
Israel began their operation with phone calls to the cell phones of Palestinians advising them to take proper cover and leave their neighborhoods and areas in Khan Yunis.
Then Israel hit a Hamas command center responsible for the increased intensity of rocket attacks falling on Israel these last few days.
The Hamas target site was empty.

This is why Israel did what they did:
The purpose for Israel's strike was to simply respond to the Hamas attacks.
Israel was sending the message that further attacks will not be tolerated.
Israel wanted to respond quickly and immediately.
Hitting an empty former command and control center was a way to deliver that message.

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Warning Warning
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 2, 2009

I'm Predicting:

Hamas on one border, Hezbollah on another, Israel is bracing for difficult times.

Hamas sent 4 rockets and 13 mortars into Israel yesterday.
Now Israel may have to hit back.

Hezbollah is all fired up and Israel is expecting attacks over the next few weeks.
Last year on February 13 Imad Mughniyah, the architect of Hezbollah's terror infrastructure and operations, was assassinated in a car bomb.

Hamas and Hezbollah are trying to strike hard at Israel.
Hamas and Hezbollah will do their best to attack Jewish and Israelis in acts of revenge.

Israel is on high alert.
Jewish and Israeli institutions around the world should be on high alert, as well.

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Israel and Turkey, Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the spat between Turkey and Israel at the World Economic Forum in Davos?
Here's the follow up: Israeli President Peres phoned Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to apologize.

Peres: These things can happen between friends.

Erdogan: Firstly, of course. There is no doubt that such arguments can happen between friends. But nobody can even speak to a tribe leader so loudly and in front of the international community, and not to the leader of the Republic of Turkey.

Peres: I raised my voice. In fact my friends tell me that I have a quite voice. This has nothing to do with my relationship with the prime minister of the Republic of Turkey. I am very sorry for what happened today.

Erdogan: I heard that you are going to hold a press conference.

Peres: Not today, but tomorrow.

Erdogan: If you express these sincere feelings, which I believe you will, in tomorrow's press conference, I assume this problem will be mostly overcome.

Peres: Of course I will publicly express these remarks.

In conclusion: Paying attention to what Erdogan said, we hear that the problem will be mostly overcome if Peres apologizes publicly.
That means the problem has not yet been overcome and will not even be completely overcome after a public apology.

Erdogan stressed that nobody can even speak to a tribal leader the way Peres spoke to him. A massive personal injury was done here. Unfortunately, while the insult is real the foundation for the argument is false.

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A New Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 31, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, we saw a new Egypt.
Yesterday marked a public change in Egypt.
Yesterday Egypt not only sang a different tune, Egypt danced a different dance.

Egypt arrested two armed men outside a tunnel on the Egyptian side of Gaza as they were about to enter the tunnel in order to smuggle in weapons. The Egyptians are searching for seven people, some of whom escaped into the tunnel.

Egypt pronounced that Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah was an Iranian agent. The pronouncement came as a response to a barrage of attacks made by Nasrallah during the Israeli operation in Gaza against Hamas.

There is no love lost in the Arab world when it comes to Hamas.
Hamas supporters, even in the Arab world, are few and far between.

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Fighting in Davos
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The World Economic Forum in Davos is known for being a place of polite, high brow dialogue.
It is where ideas are discussed and voices are never raised to the level of shouting matches.
At least, that's the way it used to be.

Yesterday, Israeli President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Simon Peres was on a panel with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.
Peres passionately explained Israel's action is Gaza.
The Turkish president was in the middle of speaking when he was cut off by the moderator. At that point he raised his voice to shout: "you are killing people."
Peres pointed his finger and said you would do the same if rockets would fall on Istanbul.
The Turkish president stormed out of the Forum, his face was beet red.
These were not polite exchanges.

By walking out, Erdogan lost credibility.
Had he stayed it would have been obvious that his argument was based on untruth and misrepresentation of reality and law.

By responding in the way in which he did, Peres was pitching to his own strengths. Shimon Peres excels in confronting liberals with liberal theory and reality couching it in the terms they understand best.

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Same Old Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A new approach to Iran does not mean a new approach from Iran.

Advisor to the president of Iran, Aliakbar Javanfekr, was recently quoted saying that Iran was not going to stop its nuclear development just because the United States asks them to stop. "We have no non-peaceful activities to suspend. All our activities are peaceful and under the supervision of the IAEA."

Javanfekr had his own take on what has become one of the most quotable quotes from the Obama inauguration speech.
Obama said: we "will extend a hand of peace if Iran unclenched its fist." Javanfekr says: "This is illogical to talk about unclenching fists when Iran is surrounded by American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq."
He said: "America has always extended a clenched fist towards Iran ... If America unclenches its fist Iran will extend a hand of cooperation towards America."

There may be a new administration in Washington, DC, but it is the same old leadership running Iran.

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Obama on Al Arabiyah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama's first TV interview was with Al Arabiyah.
This Arabic news network is watched by more people than Al Jazeera, it is also less strident.
Al Arabiyah is less well known in the US than Al Jazeera precisely because it is less critical of the West.

I watched the Obama interview several times and I read the transcript.
Several of the ideas expressed in the interview exhibit deeply flawed thinking:
The idea that all Islamic issues are linked including the situations in Pakistan, Indonesia and India.
The idea that the Palestinians should have a contiguous state.
The idea that people are basically the same and that the differences between us can be resolved.

Here's why I disagree with those comments:
Many of the conflicts in the Islamic world are inner conflicts, the Islamic world does not fall under a single rubric and Israel is not at the center of those conflicts.
The Palestinians cannot link Gaza to the West Bank without taking major sections of Israel.
The people who want to destroy the United States and obliterate US influence will stop at nothing to bring about their goal.

I hope that President Obama pays attention to his daily early morning security briefings.
We should begin worrying if the new president moves those briefings from the start of his day to a later part of the day or if the daily briefing is relegated to an every other day briefing.
Should that happen the United States will lose its grip on the world's situation.

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Carter Does it Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Jimmy Carter is at it once again.
Yesterday he was on the Today Show, talking to Meredith Vieira, hawking his new book on peace in the Middle East.
As a former president Carter projects great knowledge and experience.
But when it comes to the Middle East, the former president knows peanuts.

Carter asserted two un-imaginables.
He asserted that Hamas is trustworthy and believable.
He asserted that no real peace can happen without Hamas.
He concluded that Hamas was believable based on his two conversations with Hamas leaders in Damascus.
He said that Hamas held up their end of the agreement signed with Israel.

Well Mr. Former President, Hamas lied to you and you believed them.
Hamas did not keep up their end of the agreement with Israel.
Hamas sponsored and permitted and shot hundreds if not thousands of rockets during the time span of the supposed cease fire.

I cannot fathom how Jimmy Carter comes up with these ideas.

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Iran Needs Uranium
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors have been circulating for some time now that Iran does not have enough uranium to continue with their enriching program and nuclear development.
There are reports that Iran is recycling spent uranium.

Saturday's Times (the British newspaper) reported that Iran is very short on uranium and now needs to buy it.
The report describes how the British Foreign Office has charged its diplomats to lobby uranium producing countries not to sell to Iran.
The world's top uranium miners are: Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan, the United States, Ukraine and China.

This plan might succeed in stopping or at least slowing down Iran's nuclear development.
The United States, France and Germany have joined with England and they too are lobbying against the sale of uranium to Iran.
The problem is that seven of the top ten uranium miners are hard to read on when it comes to Iran and uranium.

But this is certainly worth trying.

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War Crimes- Israel or Hamas?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is bracing itself and preparing a legal defense in the international courts that will charge them for war crimes.

Article 147 of the Fourth Geneva Convention clearly defines war crimes as the "Willful killing, torture, or inhuman treatment, including .. willfully causing great suffering or serious injury to body or health, ... taking of hostages and extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly."

The International Committee of the Red Cross embellishes the Geneva Conventions saying "The parties to conflict must at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants in order to spare the civilian population and civilian property. Neither the civilian population as a whole nor individual civilians may be attacked."

There will be a serious attack against Israel in the international courts of law but they will fail.

The law is pretty cut and dry. Israel's behavior has been pretty transparent.

What does become clear is that according to international law Hamas' actions perfectly fit the definition of war crimes.

Sadly and perhaps ironically Hamas will not be brought before an international court for their crimes.

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George Mitchell As Special Envoy
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

George Mitchell was just named Special Envoy to the Middle East in the Obama administration.

After the announcement, I re-read the Mitchell Report.
The report was issued to the Israelis and the Palestinians on May 4, 2001.
The commission that wrote the report, chaired by the former senator, was tasked with addressing a series of specific problems that resulted in increased tensions and hostilities between Israeli and Palestinians.

The Mitchell Report is brutally honest and sadly, not optimistic.
The objective of the report was to provide a path to "end violence, rebuild confidence and resume negotiations." It lays out some clear changes that must be implemented by both sides for any progress to occur. Both sides are portrayed as in need of drastic change in behavior in order to reduce tensions and resume dialogue. The biggest issues within the report are the need for Israel to stop settlement activity and the need for Palestinians to stop terror.

Special Envoy Mitchell believes in an evenhanded approach.
That evenhanded perspective is deeply problematic to Israel, a country that has enjoyed a trusted and special relationship with the United States these past sixty years.

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Ghaddafi Asks Obama to Talk to Osama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 22, 2009

I've Been thinking:

Advice for the new president is coming in from the four corners of the world.
Of all the outlandish, the preposterous and the amazingly inappropriate wisdom coming Obama's way I have chosen one special favorite.

These are the words of wisdom of Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi to President Barack Obama:
If you are proposing a new era and new relations of openness, talk to Osama bin Laden, he said.

Yes, Ghaddafi was encouraging Obama to dialogue with bin Laden.
No doubt Obama wants change, but no, I don't think he will be following up on this particular piece of advice.

Some things, you just can't make up.

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Obama's Mid East Briefing
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Obama administration will be a friend to Israel, of that I have no doubt, it is stated policy. But that does not mean that the new administration will not bring pressure upon Israel, especially if they take up the Middle East gauntlet at the start of the new administration.

There is a lot to deal with in the region.
Egypt, France, Great Britain, Italy, Russia, Saudi Arabia - they all want to get involved, turning the Middle East into a diplomatic case of too many cooks spoiling the broth. On Tuesday, even Turkey got into the mix volunteering to mediate the Middle East conflict.

This is part of what the new president will hear concerning the Middle East in his first security briefing as president:
* on inauguration day 8 rockets, launched by Hamas, fell on Israel
* only a few hundred people came to a Hamas rally in Gaza
* only a few thousand people came to a Hamas rally in Teheran
* the Egyptian Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia the most populated Moslem country in the world, was fire bombed as a direct result of Israel's operation in Gaza
* India tested the Brahmos, a super sonic cruise missile and Pakistan is livid
* the NATO military chief is asking for 10,000 more troops in Afghanistan
* oil hit $34 a barrel

Some of these issues may seem to be non-sequiturs.
But each is an essential item, each must be understood and each must be put into context.

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Inauguration and Coronation
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The inauguration of a first term president is the closest thing this side of the Atlantic of a royal ceremony - it is a coronation, USA style.

In the days preceding the inauguration the president-elect is revered. The wheels of pomp and power move to create a transition of power that is seemingly seamless. A sense of excitement surrounds all inaugurations. The excitement surrounding the inauguration of Barack Obama is greater than all others in modern history.

The emotional high, as I walk the streets of Washington DC, is palpable and contagious. People have come to our nation's capital from cities large and small all across America. The concerts are loud. The museums are packed. The vendors are hawking photos and maps and calendars and clothing. Everyone feels a part of history. Everyone feels a part of history-in-the-making. These moments in American history are laced with magic.

When a democracy installs a leader it is an important occasion not only for that country but for the democratic world. When the most powerful democracy in the world installs a new leader it is important for the non-democratic world as well.

The President of the United States of America is the leader of the free world.
A safe and easy transition of power is the hallmark of our democratic process.
And that, my friends, is worth getting excited about.

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Does The Islamic Society Support Hamas?
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

We have a problem.
It concerns one of the select few scheduled to speak in the National Cathedral to inaugurate the 44th president of the United States of America.

The speaker's name is Ingrid Mattson.
Since 2006 she has been president of the Islamic Society of North America.
She teaches in Hartford, CT and has a very good reputation for condemning terror.

Here is the problem:
The Islamic Society of North America has been listed by federal law enforcement agencies as supporting the terror organization Hamas.

Legal papers were filed by federal prosecutors in federal court in July of 2007 and the papers make a very convincing argument. The papers concerned a terrorism case from Dallas. Mattson's group is mentioned but not charged.

Here's where it get more complicated:

The Islamic society claims to be the largest mainstream Muslim organization in North America.

Do they support Hamas even in word? I could not find it on their website. They certainly object to Israel's operation in Gaza and to civilian deaths, but that does not mean they are Hamas supporters.

The status and mission of the Islamic Society of North America must be checked out by federal authorities, the record must be clarified.

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No Israelis Allowed
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 17, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The world has taken note of the Israeli operation in Gaza.
Everyone has an opinion.

Some of the responses are to be expected, others are certainly surprising, even shocking.
Iran is recommending a boycott of Israel and of anyone doing business with Israel, which is to be expected.

However:
In Turkey a sign was put up in a private store window this week declaring: "No Israelis buy here."
In New Zealand taverns and bars are evicting Israelis with the mantra: "Israelis are not welcome until Gaza shelling stops."
Turkey and New Zealand have been major tourist stops for Israelis for many years. Israelis spend a lot of time and more importantly, money, in these places. So much so that at some spots the Israeli shekel is accepted as currency.

In most democracies one may not discriminate against people because they come from a particular country or culture. But as we are seeing, local establishments are being given more leeway in putting out the Not Welcome mat.

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Osama Bin Ladin Tape
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Osama bin Laden released a new audio tape.
In this version he calls on Muslim masses to rally 'round and jihad against Israel, the United States and any inactive Arab leaders who have done nothing to defend Hamas.

Bin Laden released this tape because he needs to show that:
- He and al Qaeda are still players and their positions have not been usurped.

- He can be as forceful as Iran which has, until now, single handedly spearheaded the assault against everyone not in support of Hamas.

- He cannot allow Shiite Iran to be the defender of Sunni Hamas.

- He views what is happening as the perfect historical example of monarchs and dictators in the Muslim world with no real pan-Islamic ideals. He can use this opportunity to demonstrate that these leaders are more closely linked to the West than to the Islamic ideology of Hamas and al Qaeda.

Bin Ladin knows the world of PR.
Bin Ladin knows that the Arab street or vox populi feel for the suffering of the Palestinians.
Bin Ladin wants to ride that wave.

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UN and Human Shields
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ban Ki Moon is on his way to the Middle East.

The Secretary General of the United Nations plans on using the weight of his august position to influence all parties in the region to push for a Gaza cease fire.

I have been watching the Secretary very carefully since the beginning of this conflict.
For the most part he has spoken up when it was required and made cogent evaluations and strong statements.

But on one of the most important moral and ethical issues of this conflict the Secretary General has remained utterly silent.

If there is one role that the Secretary General of the United States is required to play it is that of international moral compass. It is the responsibility of the Secretary General to not only point out the moral and ethical shortcomings of nations but to also try to influence those nations to act morally.

Ban Ki Moon has not said a word about Hamas' use of human shields.
Hamas has spoken openly, often and proudly about using human shields.
Hamas has aired TV programs about human shields.
Hamas leaders have gone on radio and TV to defend the act and to congratulate the people who participate in their human shield program.

This is a severe blemish on the Secretary.

When Hezbollah used human shields in the summer of 2006 the previous Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, made it clear that such behavior was reprehensible.

By not speaking out about the use of human shields Ban Ki Moon is allowing Hamas to appear as the innocent victims of Israel in this conflict.

The implication is that the civilian casualties are the result of deliberate act of Israeli brutality.

Speaking out against the policy of using human shields will not change Hamas' behavior but it will certainly show those who listen that Hamas cares only about the Islamic resistance and not about Palestinian lives.

Sometimes, silence really does speak louder than words.

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UN Cease Fire
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been said about the UN Security Council's resolution for a cease fire in Gaza. The vote for the cease fire was 14 - 0.
In a surprise move, the United States abstained.

Why did the United States abstain?
US Secretary of State Condi Rice was part of the process in drafting the resolution.
The reason the US abstained was because President Bush got a last minute call from the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert pointing out the flaws in the resolution that the United States helped draft.

The resolution is deeply flawed.
Rice was off base in helping to develop and draft the language of the resolution. The nine short clauses of the resolution never once mention Hamas.
One clause actually speaks about Israeli Palestinian peace.
Despite the wishes of the Arab foreign ministers involved in drafting the resolution neither does it mention condemnation of Israel.

Here's what it does say: Article 8. calls for renewed and urgent efforts by the parties and the international community to achieve a comprehensive peace based on the vision of a region where two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace with secure and recognized borders, as envisaged in Security Council resolution 1850 (2008), and recalls also the importance of the Arab Peace Initiative;

Folding the Palestinian/Israel peace process into the Hamas conflict with Israel legitimizes Hamas, it de facto takes Hamas to a whole new level.

The Israeli operation is not about peace with the Palestinians, it is about a terror group in Gaza shooting rockets at Israel.
Why would the US initiate such a new elevated status? They wouldn't. That's why they abstained on their own resolution

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Chemical Weapons in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Times of London broke the story which then ran on Al Jazeera:
Israel was using WHITE PHOSPHORUS in Gaza.

The assumption is that Israel is using a chemical war agent and will be condemned world over for that action.
The probability is that Israel is using Willy Pete as it is more commonly known by soldiers.

Willy Pete, which is widely used in many forms is not illegal by any treaty nor is it one any list of chemical weapons.
It does however smell like garlic and that could be offensive.
Most importantly, Willy Pete acts as a smokescreen, it hides movements and operations, it permits Israeli teams to get into position without being seen.

Willy Pete was first used in WWI by the British and then used very often in WWII. The US uses and actually, the battle in Fallujah went so well because of Willy Pete. Israel used it in Lebanon against Hezbollah and seems to be using it now against Hamas.

The cover of a smoke screen saves lives.
It saves the lives of Israeli soldiers and saves the lives of civilian non-combatant residents in Gaza.

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Cease Fire With Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The cease fire between Hamas and Israel is being hammered out on two fronts.
One front is the UN.
The other front is the Egyptian/French initiative.
Both are problematic.

About the UN:
On Thursday night the UN Security Council voted 14 - 0 for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, the United States abstained.
In reality this is just a declaration for the sake of a declaration.
The word Hamas is never mentioned, there is no operational language and no effective language. It is simply a tool to placate Arab and Muslim countries that were pushing hard.
If the Security Council really wants quiet in Gaza they will see to it that a real ceasefire resolution is forthcoming with in the next few days.

About the Egyptian/French Initiative:
The Egyptian- French proposal is heavily weighed to help Egypt and not to stop the fighting.
Egypt has an agenda, they want calm in their streets especially from the Egyptian Brotherhood. They would like to strike a blow to Hamas. They would like to build up their own military on the Gaza border and they do not want to have any responsibility for or in Gaza now or in the future. That is why they want international observers, the PA and Hamas to control the Gaza side of the border.

The reality is that Israel must not stop now.
Israel must keep their soldiers moving in and out. The longer Israeli soldiers stay in one place the more likely they are to take casualties.
The reality is that Hamas is on the run.

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The Terror Risk: The Lone Wolf
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In Islam, Friday is the Sabbath, it is the day of rest.
And on Friday's, like every other day, Muslims pray five times.
The difference is that on Friday the Imam delivers a sermon in honor of the Sabbath.

There are some mosques and some Imams who speak not only on Friday, but in every mosque the Imam delivers his main sermon on Friday.

I will venture to bet that today, in almost every mosque around the world, Imams will be preaching about Gaza, Israel and the world.
Some will add their own unique insight but almost all will draw a direct link between the United States, Israel and the Western world. Most will speak about how there is a clash of cultures.

The implication of these sermons is particularly important.
Friday sermons and Islamic websites are often the stimulus for the
"lone wolf" phenomenon.
Lone wolves are people who become so agitated by events or so inflamed by sermons or so frantic by what they read on the websites that, on their own, they set out to attack a soft target.

We must all be aware of the "lone wolf" phenomenon.
Soft targets are religious schools, synagogues, churches and institutions.
Soft targets are official offices, individuals and businesses.
There is no way to strategize against the lone wolf, the best defense we have is simply to be alert and to be aware.

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Chavez Expells Israeli Ambassador
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Chavez just expelled the Israeli ambassador from Venezuela.
Chavez's stated reason for cutting diplomatic relations with Israel is Operation Cast Lead.
But there is more going on here.

Chavez wanted to take a public stand against Israel and against the West.
This was his opportunity.
This was an important gesture.
This was proof of his commitment to support those whom he perceives as being oppressed by the United States and her associates.

The act of expelling the Israeli ambassador because of the Gaza defense operation empowers Venezuela as a leader of the developing world.
No one else stood up against the US and Israel.
Chavez can now claim that he alone stood up to the US and Israel.
This is serious currency in the bigger game of world domination.
Impressing Iran with his initiative and boldness is the big prize Chavez seeks.

Many people, including the Israelis, are upset by the loss of human lives in Gaza. For Chavez this is more than an issue of innocent lives lost.
For Chavez it is a mission, he is challenging US and Western values and leadership.
In this Chavez is in cahoots with Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and of course, Hamas.

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Accidents Happen
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Three Israeli soldiers have been killed and 24 have been wounded by friendly fire.
More Israeli soldiers have been killed by Israeli fire than by Hamas fire.

It was devastating, but not surprising:
Tragic accidents occur in all conflicts and in all operations.
In this case a tank hit a building where an entire Israeli team was taking shelter.
When so much firepower is so close in such a tight environment misfires happen.
That is why training and discipline so important.
They are the tools that are supposed to minimize the accidents that cost lives.

This should not come as a surprise either:
While all this was happening Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was telling EU representatives that there is no way that Hamas can have any victory.
Egypt's representatives were telling Hamas they must accept unconditional surrender and abandon their demands.

There is certainly no surprise here:
Muslim websites are calling the Israeli accident a sign from Allah.

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Hamas: Lessons Learned
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is beginning to feel the squeeze of the Israeli operation.
Israel's ground objectives are being easily obtained, the ground offense has been very effective against Hamas.

Israel's army has sustained almost no serious casualties.
Hamas is using machine guns to halt the Israeli army.
Hamas is also shooting mortars, not an effective method in this fight.

Hamas leadership:
Hamas leadership seems to be softening their attitude and reconsidering a "lull."
Hamas leadership is shocked by the passivity and resounding silence of the greater Muslim world.
Hamas leadership is realizing that no significant international pressure has been brought on Israel to stop the offensive.

The next few tomorrows:
In a few more days Hamas will crawl back to Egypt with its proverbial tail between it legs and ask Egypt to lay the framework a "lull."
The damage that Hamas has done to itself is unquantifiable.

Implications for the Obama Presidency:
Israel's invasion into Gaza will prove to be a huge benefit to the Obama presidency.
This invasion points out clearly and definitively that the vast majority of the Muslim world has taken a stand against Muslim Extremism, they have taken a stand against Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

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Security Council Changes for the Better
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A special session of the UN Security Council is being called to debate a critical resolution on Israel's operation in Gaza.
The draft of this resolution is very difficult for fair minded country to accept.
Even Egyptian foreign minister Gheit said that it is not realistic to only blame Israel at the UN.

The good news is that the Security Council changed over the past few days.
South Africa, Panama, Indonesia, Belgium and Italy are out.
Uganda, Mexico, Japan, Austria, and Turkey are in.
This is a big move toward more rational Security Council resolutions against terror and Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.

Replacing Indonesia with Japan means replacing the world's most populated Muslim country with a country petrified of terror.
Replacing South Africa with Uganda means replacing dogmatic anti-Western rhetoric with real politics.
Replacing Mexico with Panama means replacing a country on the fringes with a burgeoning Western wannabe.
And Turkey is the model for all Islamic states that hope to blend the modern world with Islam.

Looking at it through Western eyes, things are looking up at the United Nations.

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Reality Check For Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 1, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Abuse of a Mosque:
Israel intelligence and reconnaissance showed that Hamas was using a mosque not as a prayer hall but as a hall in which to stockpile and hide munitions and from which to shoot rockets into Israel.
Israelis took aim and bombed the building.
The resulting secondary explosions, which can be seen on You Tube, are proof that the mosque was a warehouse for explosives.

Saudi Leadership on the Conflict:
The opening remarks of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister at a special session of the Arab League dedicated to aiding Gaza placed responsibility for the entire messy affair on Hamas. Couching his criticism in diplomatic terms he said: "This terrible massacre would not have happened if the Palestinian people were unified behind one leadership."

Egyptian Leadership on the Conflict:
The head of Egyptian Intelligence, Omar Suleiman, said that "Mashaal (the head of Hamas) and his thugs will pay for foiling the internal Palestinian dialogue that was supposed to take place in Cairo." He continued saying that "Hamas' leadership is guilty of great arrogance. It snubs Egypt. It leaders must be reined in and must wake up from their dream."

Reality Check:
Mainstream Arab leadership is very upset with Hamas. And they want to teach Hamas a lesson.
Mainstream Arab leadership must, pro forma, protest Israel action and innocent casualties, but they do not cry for Hamas.

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Cease Fires: After the Goal is Accomplished
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is planning to come to Jerusalem.
He intends to mediate and negotiate a cease fire between Hamas and Israel.

There is a conceptual problem with racing toward a ceasefire in the midst of this conflict. Europe, the United Nations and at times even the United States subscribe to the theory that the quicker a cease fire is reached the better, but that is not always the case.

In this conflict with Hamas, Israel is attempting to destroy the terror infrastructure and create a new status quo. It is premature, even dangerous, for Western states to even raise the idea of ceasefire until the new status quo has been achieved and essential goals have been attained.

The thinking goes that the longer there is conflict the more innocent bystanders will be hurt so let's end it all with a ceasefire.
That is where the fallacy lies.
As long as the terrorists are able to act freely innocent lives are at stake, both at the hands of the terrorists and by the retaliatory strikes against the terrorists.

Hamas terrorists are using human shields in order to jack up the numbers of innocent causalities.
International law is clear on this issue: those people are no longer innocent if the terrorists act behind them.
Unfortunate, but true.
Sarkozy needs to think this through before lunging ahead with plans for a cease fire.

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Hamas & Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The death of innocent civilians, whether Israeli or Palestinian, is tragic.
The situation in Gaza warrants serious evaluation.

Hamas was hitting and hitting, launching more and more rockets into Israel it was inevitable that eventually Israel was going to strike back and strike with great force, principally from the air using fighter jets and helicopters.

Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on the face of the earth. Regardless of how precise the Israeli air force targeting mechanisms are and how accurate Israeli intelligence is in identifying targets, it is inevitable that some civilians in Gaza will be hurt. It is Israel's job to make certain that the number of civilian casualties is as few as possible and Israel takes that job seriously.

Everyone knew this was going to happen.
Hamas knew and they actually egged Israel on.
Egypt knew and with the exception of a short period of time when their borders were breached at 4 points and a major was shot and killed Egypt has maintained their border with Gaza and not permitted Palestinians to spill into Egypt.

Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the National Security Council, said it best:
"Hamas' continued rocket attacks into Israel must cease if the violence is to stop. Hamas must end its terrorist activities if it wishes to play a role in the future of the Palestinian people. The United States urges Israel to avoid civilian casualties as it targets Hamas in Gaza."

This is only a beginning. Gaza will not go away.

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Israel Strike at Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This was not a strike to oust Hamas, this was a nudge towards a ceasefire.

Israel is striking at Gaza. In the first 90 seconds of the strike Israel hit over 40 targets in Gaza. On Sunday in a matter of seconds Israel destroyed 40 tunnels used to smuggle weapons.
On Saturday, in total, Israel struck over 270 targets.

Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the PA begged Hamas to extend the "lull." He begged Hamas not to force Israel to attack and destroy Gaza.

Hosni Mubarak says Egypt has been warning Hamas that an Israeli invasion will be the end result of the rockets they are launching into Israel.

Hamas wanted Israel to attack.
Hamas upped the ante by not extending the "lull." They taunted Israel by launching up to 70 rockets in a single day into Israel. They were hoping for international condemnation and maximum casualties. Hamas wants a 3rd Intifada, they have called for a 3rd Intifada. They are sending rockets as far as Ashdod (200,000 citizens) and into Ashkelon (100,000 citizens), cities with nearly 100,000 Israeli residents.

Israel wanted to stir up Gazans against Hamas. Israel wants to take the momentum away from Hamas and dictate the next stages of the ceasefire. They want Hamas to know that hitting Israel has a high price. Israel will stop the raids after it has setback but not destroyed the terrorist infrastructure.

Hamas will try to launch as many rockets as possible during the Israeli operation to prove that they are still viable. That plan is working, this AM Hamas launched 4 rockets hitting deep into Israel. Hamas will also try to inflict damage on Israel through terror attacks originating from the West Bank. Hamas may also try strike against soft Jewish and Israeli targets across the world.

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Hamas Qassams Kill Palestinian Girls
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A rocket misfired in Gaza on Friday and it killed two young girls.
The rocket was a Qassam, shot by terrorist who were aiming it to land somewhere in Israel.
Instead, the rocket landed somewhere on a house in Gaza and a 5 year old and 13 year old were killed.

Earlier in the day another rocket misfired from Gaza.
That rocket badly wounded a 35 year old man who is now in a hospital in Israel where his wounds are being treated.
The man was wounded in the head when his house took a direct Qassam hit. After initial treatment at a Gaza hospital he was evacuated on an Israeli ambulance that entered Gaza and whisked him away.

All this was happening under the canopy of war, a war in which Qassams are shot into Israel from Gaza.
While this was happening Israel opened the borders to Gaza to allow in as much food and supplies as possible. Israel opened the gates and sent in the supplies in advance of a strike that Israel is planning against Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza.

For Israel this inconsistent behavior is not strange but expected.
Israel treats and cares for the wounded of their enemy especially the civilian wounded.
Israel delivers food to the enemy.

For Hamas this behavior is also expected.
Hamas, in their zeal to murder innocent Israelis, expects to murder innocent Gazans.
Hamas does not care about innocent bystanders, not their own and certainly not Israelis.
Hamas has said that innocent who die at the hands of martyrs are themselves martyrs and heroes.

Something is wrong with this picture.

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US 5 Year Threat Assessment
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A 38 page long, 5 year threat assessment of terror against the United States was recently uncovered by the AP.
The document details the dangers that will confront the United States in the coming five years.

Here are some highlights:
Terror threats originating from Middle Eastern countries and Muslim countries are extremely high.
Non-conventional nuclear, chemical and biological weapons remain threats despite the practical difficulties in actually using them in an attack.
Significant emphasis was placed on ways in which terrorists can creatively manipulate the internet and other high tech gadgets and how terrorists will be using computers and sabotaging computers in future attempted attacks.

The report even emphasized that Hezbollah might strike on the US homeland. Hezbollah has never hit the United States at home, but their growing strength, their frustration and their need to bow down to Iranian sponsors may push Hezbollah in that direction.

That's some scary stuff.

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Iran Supplying Sryia With Arms
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

An Italian newspaper, quoting a CIA source, reported that Iran was outfitting Syria with advanced weapons in violation of international law and in violation of numerous UN Security Council resolutions.

According to the report which was released several days ago, the CIA has uncovered the third party that permitted the transfer of these weapons. That third party is Venezuela.

The plan takes advantage of regular Venezuelan aircraft that fly into Iran.
The Iranians packed the aircraft with weapons. The planes took off and landed in Syria a few minutes later. The planes returned to Venezuela empty.

It was a very simple plan.
By all rights no one would even pay attention to Venezuelan planes.
But the CIA is skeptical of the relationship between Chavez and Ahmadinejad.
So the CIA started watching backdoor and other channels of interaction.
And that is how they must have stumbled upon the weapons transfer.

I wonder.
Why has a story involving the three worst enemies of the free world involved in unsavory, illegal, dangerous, threatening activity, not made news in the United States.

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Hamas is Readying For Israel's Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

You and I are not the only ones who know that Israel is preparing to strike Gaza in order to stop the rocket barrage that has showered Israel since the "lull" expired last week.
Hamas knows, too.

Hamas knows that Israel is preparing a land offensive and Hamas is preparing a defense.
When Israel enters Gaza Hamas wants to inflict as many casualties as possible.
Hamas has planted mines and explosives, obstacles that will maim and kill Israeli soldiers.
Israel knows that, too.

Israel knows that the home team has certain advantages.
Israel knows that tanks and vehicles are limited to a handful of routes.
Israel has no doubt that those will be booby trapped.
Israel also knows that Hamas has no compunction about hiding among the civilian masses who can provide them with the perfect cover.
Israel knows that Hamas will coordinate strikes behind the protective cover of children and elderly Palestinians.
Israel would be best advised to keep off the roads and use air attacks whenever possible.

Most importantly Hamas knows that the world will come out strongly against Israel and will condemn Israel for protecting her citizens by re-entering Gaza.

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Lebanon Sends Ambassador to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday the first Lebanese ambassador to Syria was named.
It was a historic event.

Lebanon and Syria are neighbors. The countries are not at war. Why did it take until now for Lebanon to finally appoint an ambassador to Syria?
Because since the 1940's when Lebanon and Syria become independent states Syria has thought of Lebanon as a Syrian province.

Things are slowly changing.
Pressure from the international community coupled with the need to hold Syria accountable for several deadly acts, including the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, have set the stage for a new level of interaction between these neighboring countries.

Lebanon and Syria are not yet like the United States and Canada, they may never be. But this is still an enormous step for the region.
Syria is finally recognizing Lebanon as an independent nation.

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Russia Asks Hamas to Stop
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has gotten into the Middle East act.
The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed on Friday that Russia has called Hamas asking them to reconsider their position and to begin negotiations on a new "lull" with Israel.

Since the "lull" expired a few days ago tens if not hundreds of rockets have been shot into Israel from Gaza.
Jimmy Carter also urged Hamas to reconsider when he met with Hamas leadership in Damascus.

But Hamas does not want a cease fire now
Hamas wants to ratchet up the pressure and then start negotiations.
The problem with that behavior is that between now and then more Israelis will be terrorized and Israel will retaliate against Hamas.

Hamas does not care.
Hamas wants more leverage.
Hamas thinks that they will gain more when Egypt negotiation for them.
Hamas is wrong.

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Shoe Guy Says "I'm Sorry"
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The famous shoe thrower has asked for forgiveness.
But not from President Bush.
He asked forgiveness from Iraqi leader Nuri al Maliki.

In a letter of apology written by Munater al Zaidi, aka the famous shoe thrower, to Maliki, Zaidi asks forgiveness for embarrassing the Iraqi leader in front of the world. (It has been mistranslated as asking for a pardon.)

This kind of apology is a classic act in Islam.
When one embarrasses the host one must apologize. The host is more important than the hurt party. The offense took place under the sponsorship of the host even though he was unaware of the offense. The host was violated and blindsided. In Islam guests are afforded safe and respected passage under the authority of the host. A violation of this code is a grave infraction.

Does Zaidi have any intention of asking forgiveness from President Bush?
That's a rhetorical question.

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Stop the Pirates
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday an international force launched a raid to rescue a Chinese ship that was 50 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen.

The boat which had 30 crew members aboard was called the Zhenhau-4.

It was the 4th ship to be pirated in 24 hours.

The incident occurred only shortly after the Security Council voted to permit the chasing of pirates from the air and on land.

The time the mission, which made use of commandos and helicopters, was successful.

It is about time.

Renegade pirates are running roughshod over the seas.
They are stealing, kidnapping and reselling goods. They have harmed innocent people and have set records for hijacking the largest vessels. They do not care who the ship owners are. They have pirated ships from Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. These pirates must be stopped.

The precedent has already been set.
Teddy Roosevelt fought the Barbary pirates in this same area by investing huge amounts of energy to clear the seas for shipping and trade.

Using the Roosevelt model pirates will first be stopped from perpetrating their deeds by means of extreme intimidation and then they will be prosecuted.

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Russia Gives Planes to Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 17, 2008

I'm Predicting:

Russian wire services and other news agencies are spreading the word that Russia has just agreed to provide Lebanon with 10 MIG 29's.

Russia calls this an Aid Package to Lebanon.
What are the Russians thinking?
Lebanon barely has an air force.

In the end there will be one of two scenarios:

Scenario # 1: Israel or Syria will view these aircraft as aggressive enemy air craft and the region will be drawn into conflict.

Scenario # 2: The aircraft will be called to scramble when Israel patrols either out over the Mediterranean Sea or over parts of Lebanon and they will be downed in a dogfight.

Once again, Russia has made it clear that the sale of arms and opening up new markets is more important than safety and stability.

Giving MIGs to Lebanon is a gargantuan mistake.

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An Arabic Curse
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Did you hear the one about George Bush and the flying shoe?
I bet you did.
Did you hear the one about the award given to the shoe hurler?
Probably not.

A charitable organization in Libya has bestowed upon the shoe thrower an award for bravery.
No one can make up a story like that.
The Wa Attussiman society which is chaired by the daughter of Libyan leader Muammar Ghaddafi called the journalist a hero.

As he chucked the shoe the journalist shouted "this is a farewell kiss you dog."
In many ways it was the perfect Arabic curse.
It combines kiss, dog and shoes.
Kiss is part of every Arabic greeting and departure.
Dogs are subhuman and seen as scavengers with four legs.
Shoes traipse through the drek of the earth becoming encrusted with dirt that is impossible to remove.

A few weeks ago Libya came to an agreement with the US, it was a significant diplomatic step forward.
Honoring someone who cursed the US president is taking a giant step backwards.

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Carter and Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Former President Jimmy Carter met Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal.
This is their second meeting since April.
This time, Carter and Mashall wanted a quiet meeting and did not call for the almost requisite post-meet press conference.

Before the meeting Mashaal had said that there was no need for Hamas to continue the "lull" in the conflict with Israel.
Carter was pressuring to continue the "lull."
Immediately after the announcement of not renewing the "lull" a Hamas spokesman in Gaza said it was unclear as to whether the "lull" would continue.

The best Israeli insight says that Hamas wants to continue the "lull."
It says that this latest set of saber rattling is specifically intended get more out of negotiations with Israel. Hamas can only gain from quiet, it allows them to rebuild Gaza in relative calm and without fear of retaliation.
That is their objective.

No surpise, but when Mashaal speaks he is not telling the entire truth, he is simply posturing in order to obtain a better bargaining position.

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Russia Invades Georgia Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There was a report on Saturday that the Russians had crossed over the border and taken a town on the Georgian South Ossetian side.
It is a small town called Perevi.

According to reports from Georgia and from the wire services Russia ousted the Georgian police. Now the town is occupied by 400 - 500 Russian soldiers.
The village is actually in Georgia but is very close to the South Ossetian border.

The implications of this are enormous.
The Russians and the Georgians are still trading jabs about this summer's invasion.
The Russians want to teach Georgia a serious lesson.
The Russians want to warn the US and other Western countries to stay away from issues that relate to the former republics.

Make no mistake.
Russia is in charge.

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Ahmadinejad Wants To Erase Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Iran has sponsored several large anti-Israel rallies.
At one of these rallies, Ahmadinejad spoke.

Ahmadinejad's message was on point.
Ahmadinejad spoke of erasing the Zionists from the world.

In the world of Ahmadinejad it is possible to explain away and rationalize the events that are taking place in Gaza.
In the world of Ahmadinejad there is a nuanced distinction between these comments, erasing the Zionists from the world and his other comments, wiping Israel off the face of the map, which he asserts will result as a natural course of history.

The Iranian leader said that Israel will soon "fade away from the earth."
He continued by saying that "[t]he crimes being committed by the Zionist regime [Israel] are happening because it is aware that it has reached the end of the line and will soon fade away from the earth."

Ahmadinejad argues that Israel sees its own end in history.
His observation is as fascinating as it is deeply flawed.

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Iran is Proud to Support Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The President elect has started to make an impact on global politics.

The Iranians are responding to Obama's comments about applying pressure to insure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon and the need to have Iran stop sponsoring terror.
The enormously popular speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, responded this way: "We are proud to support Hezbollah and Hamas, and you are wrong for calling them terror organizations."

It appears that we have a significant difference of opinion on the objectives of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran supports Hamas and Hezbollah knowing that they murder innocent people.
Not just Israelis, Hamas and Hezbollah regularly terrorize, murder, intimidate and oppress their own communities in Gaza and in southern Lebanon.

How can Larijani be proud of that?
Intimidating Muslims is an Iranian foreign policy goal, that's how.

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Obama to Address Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In interviews in the LA Times and Chicago Tribune, president elect Obama confirmed that he intends to follow though with his pledge to deliver a major address from a Muslim capital.
The objective, he says, is to "reboot America's image in the Muslim world."
It is a brilliant idea.

Barack Obama will use charisma and charm, two of his greatest assets, to explain the greatness of America.
Obama knows that those people who hate America will not be convinced even by him and those who already love America need no convincing.
The people he will be speaking to are the masses in the middle.

Obama will try to move the Muslim masses in the middle to move in two directions:
# 1: to fight terror
# 2: to embrace difference.
Obama will explain US policy against terror as he reaches out to touch the Muslim world.
Obama will lead by example.

This is a bold new idea.
I look forward to seeing how it is implemented and to measuring its impact.

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Carter Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jimmy Carter is at it again.

Yesterday he touched down in Beirut, Lebanon and announced that he would meet with Hezbollah and any other party interested in talking to him.
In April he met with Hamas leaders in Damascus including Khaled Mashaal the politburo chief.

Carter quoted Hezbollah leadership saying that they would not meet with any US president or any former president. Except for him.
It is as if the terrorists have more principles than the former president from Plains, GA.
US policy is very clear. Terror organizations are not to be elevated to a level of diplomatic exchange.

Carter is not just violating the tenets of US policy he is flirting with danger ... a danger far more serious than anything he is used to. Validating and publicly accepting Hezbollah legitimizes their murderous acts.

Forget for a moment Israeli/Hezbollah conflicts. The US has its own score to settle with Hezbollah. In 1983 it was Hezbollah that bombed the US Marine barrack in Beirut murdering 241 Americans and wounding many more.

Carter needs to be checked, he needs to be tethered, Carter needs to be muzzled.

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ONE OF THE ARREST TERROIST WAS UNDERCOVER
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Police in India have arrested two men for providing SIM cell phone cards to the terrorists who murdered 174 people in Mumbai last week.
The men were arrested in Delhi and then transferred to Calcutta.

This was a huge step forward in the case.
But then ... The anti terror unit called and told the Calcutta investigators that one of the men was theirs.
Not theirs to interrogate.
One of the arrested men was their operative.

The man had been undercover for some time and the anti terror unit actually admitted that he was indeed providing SIM cards to the terrorists in order to track them and listen to them.
There is no reason to believe that this is not true.
The Times of London picked up the story also.

What were the anti terror people waiting for and what were they listening to?
If they had real time intel and info, that meant that they stood by while people were going to be massacred.

That would be scandalous - even for India.

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Islam's Festival: Eid al Adha
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 7, 2008

I've BeenThinking:

Tonight begins the Muslim festival of Eid al Adha.
Eid al Adha us one of two holiday feasts celebrated by Islam.
In Islam, like in Judaism, the day begins in the evening, at sundown.

Eid al Adha is best translated as the Festival of the Sacrifice.
It commemorates the story from the Koran when Ibrahim (Abraham) was commanded to take his son Ishamel (not Isaac as described in the Genesis 22) and offer him as a sacrifice. It was a test of Ibrahim's faith. In the end a ram appears and Ibrahim sacrifices the animal in place of his son.

Eid al Adha takes place at the end of the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca.
It falls on the 10th day of the month of Dhul Hijja.
This is the Islamic year 1429.

Eid al Adha is a three-day-long holiday. Families gather together and slaughter an animal. Traditionally, the family eats 1/3 and gives the rest to the poor.

Eid al Adha symbolizes the dedication of Ibrahim.
Ibrahim's total submission to Allah's will is celebrated as an example for all Muslims to follow.

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A Week Later
By Micah Halpern

Saturday Dec 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

One week after the terrorist attack in Mumbai a maintenance person at the train station was sifting through a mound of abandoned luggage and found two 8.8lb bombs.
The bombs were left at the train station by the two terrorists who attacked there and then left to terrorize the patients and staff at Cama Hospital.

No one thought to investigate the area.
No one thought to scour the area.
No one thought to sweep the area.
No one thought about bombs and booby traps.
No one thought about finding ways to help identify the dead.
No one thought to look for leads.

This isn't a bad Bollywood movie, this is real life in India.
This is sad.
This is scary.

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Russia Offers to Help India
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has just offered to help India battle against terror.
Real help, by providing intelligence updates.

This type of help from Russia could prove invaluable for India.
Russia gathers an enormous amount of intel in Pakistan from sources scattered throughout the various regions.
India has a hard task ahead.
Confronting the extremist Islamic element that is bent on wreaking havoc on the country and that demands the total capitulation of India will not be easy.

Having the information is important, but it is the next stage that is critical.
What does India do with the information?

The United States warned India of an impending attack on Mumbai by sea.
They warned that the attackers would target tourists and high profile Western hangouts including hotels.
But India instituted no changes, not in security and not in vigilance.

Certainly, we must all pitch in to confront murderous terrorists.
But that is just one step in the process.
Following up and follow through is extremely critical in preventing future attacks.
In the end, each country is on its own.

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When a Handshake Isn't a Handshake
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In Western societies a hand shake is the sign of acknowledgement.
In the Middle East a handshake is the sign of - nothing.

In Western societies a hand shake is as binding as a signed agreement.
In the Middle East a handshake is nothing more than a mere moment of personal exchange.

Last month, at a United Nations interfaith conference held in New York, Shimon Peres and Grand Sheik Mohammed Sayed Tantawi shook hands.
Shimon Peres is the president of Israel, he is a Nobel Prize laureate and an internationally recognized peace broker.
Grand Sheik Mohammed Sayed Tantawi is an Egyptian, he is one of Islam's most respected and revered leaders, he is dead set against the existence of Israel.

Now the Sheik is claiming that he did not know who Peres was.
He is claiming that he shook every hand that was extended to him.
He rejects the handshake and any meaning it may have.

Because of the handshake, some Arab papers are calling for the Sheik to step down from all religious leadership positions.
The kicker is that Egypt and Israel have a peace treaty.

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Holtzberg was Pregnant
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I was almost getting over the rawness of the horrific attack in Mumbai when the latest news emerged.
Rivka Holtzberg, the slain wife of the Chabad rabbi, was five months pregnant.

The message of this attack is still not out there.
It is a full week after the attack and I am still hearing from people are who say that the attack on the Jewish center must have been a mistake.
How can I expect people to think otherwise when their sources are The New York Times and the BBC?
But they are wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The Chabad Jewish Center in Mumbai which is now being renamed in memory of the Holtzberg's was a specific and premeditated target for the terrorists.
The terrorists could never have found it otherwise.
The terrorists confessed this was a part of their plan.
The terrorists wanted to murder Jews and Israelis.
Even the innocence of an unborn child is seen as fair game in the minds of Islamic terrorists.

Islam believes in free will.
This child has not sinned according to Islam.
So how can the child be a target?
There is no religious justification for these murderous, terrorist, acts.

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Iran Offers to Help Others Get Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday the Iranians announced that they would gladly assist in building joint atomic energy facilities for any country in the region wishing their help.
Again.

Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, made the announcement.
He was totally straight faced and sounded as if he genuinely meant the offer. Each time I see this kind of announcement it makes me chuckle.

Iran has said they would welcome exporting nuclear technology and would want to make nuclear technology affordable to any country in the region or in the world wanting it.

The only reason Iran makes these offers is to placate their neighbors, to allay the terror and fear that permeates the neighborhood as Iran completes their own nuclear facilities.

The thought of Iran helping other countries is simply horrifying.
Every country, other than Iran, knows it.

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Learn from Mumbai
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the Mombai terror attack is over, analysts are turning into Monday morning quarterbacks.
While it is very important to study this terrorist operation and the counter terror response, it is wrong to quarterback.

The situation could have been handled better, but these were the circumstances and for better or for worse, this is the way it played out.
Now we must bury the dead, learn our lessons, put what we learn into practice and better protect ourselves in the future.

These terrorists were very well armed and very well prepared and that was critical to the success of the operation. From the beginning it was clear that the terrorists were better prepared than the on site teams from India. Only when real, trained, counter terror squads arrived was the situation able to change. Even then, the tide the terrorists maintained the upper hand for a very long time.

We need to study this event.
We need to learn from mistakes.
We must not judge.

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Terror Scare in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday and Thursday New York City Transit Authority Police was on high alert.

Police were everywhere.
They had a received a threat.
According to a plan hatched in September, there was going to be a terrorist attack on NYC subways or on other NYC mass transit on Thanksgiving.

The threats were credible, but unsubstantiated.
Credible means that the intelligence source that uncovered the threat was reliable and trustworthy and that the information given was real and should be taken seriously.
Unsubstantiated means that there was no other source corroborating the original intelligence source and its interpretation.

It means that decision makers must assume that the threat is real and accurate. It means they must use the necessary measures to prevent the terrorists from reaching their targets.
And that is exactly what New York’s Finest did.

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The Jewish Target was Central in India
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It has taken time, but finally, the Jewish/Israeli angle of the Mumbai terror attack has trickled out from the mainstream press.

Not moving the Jewish/Israeli angle to a central position in the coverage was a serious oversight.
Not moving the Jewish/Israeli angle to a central position shows a significant misunderstanding of this terrorist attack.

These terrorist were organized. They selected their targets with precision and purpose. The Chabad House was not an accidental target, it was a central target. The Chabad House, the Jewish community center, was chosen because it represented Jews and it represented Israel.

The plotters attacked Mumbai because of its significance.
Mumbai is the silicon capital of India.
Mumbai is the symbol of Western expansion and capitalism.
Mumbai is a major tourist and business center and that is why the hotels and cafe were targeted.
The Jewish site was targeted because the Jews and Israel represent outsiders and exploiters.

The terrorists were sending out a message.
They do not simply want to cripple the Indian economy.
They want to tell their supporters elsewhere that India must fall.
That want their supporters to understand that India is in cahoots with the West and with other outsiders like Israel and the Jews.

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Tensions in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are extremely high in Gaza right now.
The tensions can be attributed to any number of reasons, but when push comes to shove, it is all about politics.

The Palestinian Authority has scheduled a presidential election for January 9th.
That's when Hamas intends to oust Abbas. To that end, a serious smear campaign has already begun in Gaza to delegitimize Abbas and Fatah.

The situation is crude and out of control.
Hamas has issued edicts aimed at sucking the emotional strength out of Fatah supporters.
According to a report in the Palestinian press that was made public by the Palestine Media Watch it has become illegal to give flowers to Fatah members recovering in the hospital. There's more. It is against Hamas law to offer consolation to any Fatah member or supporter who is injured, wounded or sick.

What kind of leadership would outlaw acts of kindness and decency?
The answer is Hamas.
Understand the thinking behind this type of behavior and you are significantly closer to understanding Hamas.

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Why Blame Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This evening Olmert and Bush will meet in the White House.
It will be their last official get together, two lame ducks meeting and then having dinner together with their spouses.

They will certainly talk about Iran
They will certainly talk about Palestinian/Israeli peace negotiations.
They will talk about two big issues, both stalemated.

Here is the situation:
The US is laying blame for the stalemate with the Palestinians on the Israeli democratic process which is moving towards an election on February 10, 2009.
Yesterday, on Air Force One, returning from a summit meeting with President Bush in Peru, Condi Rice said "[e]ven though there was not an agreement by the end of the year, it is really largely because of the political situation in Israel."

Here is the problem:
The Palestinians are slated to have a presidential election on January 9th. But that election will probably not happen. The PA will probably bow away from the presidential election saying national interests preclude an election at this time.

Here is the truth:
A democracy permits its citizens to determine the direction of their society.
The Palestinian Authority is still not a democracy.
The United States, under Bush and under Obama, should recognize that reality.

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Hamas Rejects Saudi Plan
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority, with Abbas at the helm, has embarked on an ad campaign to convince Israelis to embrace the Saudi Plan.
According to the Saudi Plan if Israel withdraws to the pre '67 borders they will be rewarded with total Arab recognition of Israel and long term peace.

It appears that Hamas is not on board with this campaign.
In a speech on Sunday from Damascus Hamas leader Khalled Mashaal said that the only path to peace is "resistance" and "armed struggle." Those are code words for terror and exterminating Israel.

Mashaal said that the ads show that Fatah and Abbas are now collaborating with Israel which makes them party to the pain and horror that is taking place in Gaza.

Mashaal is starting to prepare for a Palestinians election.
The Palestinian presidential election is scheduled for January 9, 2009, parliamentary elections will be held a year later.

Mashall has his own plan.
He intends to oust Fatah through force and through elections.

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Hamas and the Cease Fire
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ismail Haniyeh just proclaimed that the factions in Gaza want a cease fire with Israel.
The irony of it all is that as the Hamas leader in Gaza was speaking those words Qassam rockets came raining down on Israel, one landing as far from Gaza as the city of Ashkelon.

And who claimed responsibility for that attack?
The Isadin Brigades of the Popular front on Islamic Jihad.
The Gaza cease fire comes with a caveat, says Hamas.
If Israel adheres to the cease fire, Hamas will adhere to the cease fire.

Does Hamas really want a cease fire?
They probably do, and so, probably, does the Islmaic Jihad also yes.
What about the 30 other odd factions living in Gaza, can they be brought under the umbrella?
I think they can.

Hamas must use their influence to influence Jihad who will influence the others. The caveat here is that none of it can be interpreted as bowing to Israelis interests or Israeli military might.
The cease fire will be explained as an internal necessity to save Palestinian lives, rebuild, regroup and strengthen the military.
If it works, I say go with it.

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Arabs Meet to Fight Pirates
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday Egypt hosted a meeting of six Arab nations.
They gathered to try to confront the plague of piracy that has befallen the region.

Saudi Arabia , Yemen, Sudan, Jordan and a representative of the transitional government of Somalia began working on solutions to help protect themselves from the pirates that have attacked a central part of their economies.

They decided to work on setting up a center to monitor the pirates' location. They decided to have joint maneuvers.
They decided that ships traveling the Red Sea would have on board warning systems to protect them in the event of a piracy.

These are all very good ideas, I hope that they are implemented.
The piracy that threatens the high seas must be brought under control.

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Al Qaeda & Obama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the number two man in al Qaeda, came out with a damning critique of President Elect Obama.
Zawahiri called Obama an abeed al beit.

What is an abeed al beit?
It is not, as the Western media and the al Qaeda video translated it to mean a "house negro."
It has a far more virulent and despicable tenor.
It is an Arabic term that smacks of slavery, a term that was used in the slave trade.
It means a "house slave."

The implications are so clear in the Arabic. Al Qaeda is implying that Barack Obama is not the kind of slave who worked the fields or with the cattle. He was more gentile and cultivated and would be used by the master in his house.
The implication is that Obama has a set of masters that direct him and control him and that own him.

We must understand, this critique of our president elect was not uttered for our ears, the audience for the tape was not DC or Chicago, it is the Muslim world.

Zawahiri is warning the Umah, the Muslims, not be excited and expect a change in Washington regarding the Muslim world.
Zawahiri is telling the Muslim world that the new president is a mere house slave, he is not the master of the house.
Zawahiri is saying the die is cast, so be it.

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Michael Jackson & the Bahraini Prince
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A legal case between Michael Jackson and Abdullah bin Hamad Al Khalifa has been bouncing through the London courts since 2007.
Yesterday the case found itself in the limelight once again.

The third son of the ruler of Bahrain is suing to get back the $7 million US he gave the famous singer/song writer.
The deal was to cut a joint CD, start a record company and write a biography.
The prince, you see, is an amateur songwriter.

As you might recall Jackson was hosted royally by the Bahraini prince in 2005 after being brought up on child molestation charges.
It was then, in the royal palaces, that the deal was struck.

Jackson says the $7 million was a gift.
The prince says there was a contract and a deal.

I cannot imagine that Abdullah is good songwriter, but he was the only person who opened his doors when Jackson was down.
Jackson might once have been a legend, but he has not written or performed or had a creative thought in over a decade.
To assume that he would, or could, put the Sheik on the musical map for any amount of money is like whistling in the dark.

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Survey Shows Americans Support Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Project, an Israel advocacy group headquartered in Washington D.C., commissioned an interesting survey.
The results were revealing.

The poll was conducted jointly by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. These two polling organizations cover the political spectrum, one is routinely hired by the left and the other by the right.
True to form the Israel Project had most of the questions focus on America and then slipped in some questions on Israel and terror related issues.

The results:
19% of Americans believe the Israeli Palestinian issue should be a priority for the new President.
6% believe that the US should stand strongly behind the Palestinians, while 66% said that they believe the US should stand behind Israel.
66% said that they are deeply concerned about Iran as a nuclear threat.
72% said that despite all the other issues that the US is currently confronting Iran should still be on the top of the agenda of the new president's list of priorities.

What do we learn from this survey?
The most telling part of this survey is that, across the board, the pendulum has not really swung.
The priorities of Americans prior to the presidential election are the priorities of Americans following the election.
There has been no real change.

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New Mayor in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem held election for mayor this past week.
Billionaire, hi tech entrepreneur, Nir Barkat is the new mayor of the holy city. Barkat is not a religious man, but he is definitely respectful of religious life.
Jerusalem has special status for many people in the world, not only to those who live there.

Barkat lost the last election to Uri Lopolianksy who ran on a platform supporting religious life and the special religious status of Jerusalem.
Lopoliansky, a member of the ultra orthodox world, was a dismal failure.
Jerusalem suffered under Lopoliansky's tenure as mayor.

In many ways Jerusalem is a microcosm of Israel.
Jerusalem confronts the same challenges that confront Israel, only more so. Arabs make up one third of Jerusalem's population.
The secular/religious divide is fierce.
There is no real industry in Jerusalem.

If the newly elected mayor of Jerusalem chooses not to confront these problems the city will become more tense and more fractionalized than it already is.
The pulse of Jerusalem reverberates throughout the Middle East.

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A Look Into Ahmadinejad's Head
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave a speech to military veterans and families of military casualties.

Ahmadinejad said two things that are important for us to note, two things that tell us what the Iranian leader is thinking.
He said that Iran is not looking to attack and does not want to attack any country.
He said that the age of the great powers is coming to an end that Iran has baffled them.

While it is true that Iran has a long history of not invading other countries, Iran is still a serious force to be reckoned with.

And while it is true that great power rise and fall and it is possible that the US may have hit its peak, it takes decades for a great power to fall. It takes as long for a great power to wane as it does for it to wax.

So Ahmadinejad, do not hold your breath.
Now that we know what Ahmadinejad is thinking, I would characterize it as wishful thinking.

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Palestinians Convict Collaborator
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday a Palestinian military court convicted a Palestinian security officer of collaborating with Israel.
The court sentenced the security officer to be executed by firing squad.
The crime was helping Israel arrest 3 terrorists in 2002 in a refugee camp near Bethlehem.

Here is the problem.
Israeli is pursuing peace with the Palestinians.
This person was helping capture terrorists that the Palestinians were supposed to capture.
He is being executed for helping the Israelis do what the Palestinians were supposed to do in the first place.

In a previous case, one similar to this, the United States interceded.
Condi Rice asked President Abbas not to sign the writ of execution.
I would hope that, once again, calmer heads prevail.

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Hamas: Talking to Obama
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 12, 1008

I've Been Thinking:
The Arabic daily out of London, Al Hayat, quotes a Hamas leader saying that they have had talks with Obama's people before and even after the election.

Ahmed Yousef is a very close political adviser to the elected leader of Hamas in Gaza, Ismail Haniyah.
Yousef said that the Obama campaign asked Hamas to keep the meeting quiet so as not to aid McCain in the election.
Now that the election is over, Hamas is going public.

In early May Robert Malley, one of Obama's best foreign policy people, was let go from the campaign. Malley was removed from the team for having met with Hamas and Syrian diplomats. At the time I said that as soon as the election was over, if Obama emerged the winner, Malley would be asked to rejoin the team.

Khaled Maashal, the head of the Hamas Politburo whose office is in Damascus, was interviewed on SKY TV. Maashal called on Barack Obama to live up to his agreements and sit down with parties that have been previously shunned by US administrations.

Troubling? Yes.
Shocking? Not really.

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A Nadji Is A Goat
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I gained remarkable insight from an inconsequential piece that ran in the Saudi press the other day.

We have all heard of horse shows, but did you know that the horse show originated in Arabia?
The off-spring of horse shows are camel shows where people come from far and wide to compete and buy and sell camels.

The article I am talking about was about the "Najdi."
The Nadji is a goat. The Nadji is not just any goat, it is a goat with a high nose and with hair that is so fine and shaggy that it is almost like silk.
The Nadji is to goats what the Arabian stallion is to horses.

From all across the peninsula people brought their male and female Nadji goats to compete.
The goats were bathed and shampooed in advance of the competition.
The pictures of the winners were posted on the website.

Of course I laughed. But I also learned.
The differences between our Western societies and the societies of the Middle East are greater than we can even imagine.

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Hezbollah's New Head of Operations
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah has appointed a new head of operations.
The previous head, Imad Mugniyah, was assassinated in a car bomb in Damascus in February.

Mugniyah was legendary.
For 20 years he controlled the operations of Hezbollah and struck out at the heart of his targets, the United States, the United Nations, the Sunnis and the Israelis.

The new head of operations for Hezbollah is Mustafa Shehadeh.
Shehadeh has been with Hezbollah since the very beginning.
He is a team player and Hezbollah leadership is convinced that under his tutelage they will be partners if not leaders in the operations team.

Under Mugniyah all operations were conducted under a cloak of total secrecy. He was the only person who knew plans, people and operations.
That was one of the reasons he was so successful.
There could be no leaks.

The more people who know the harder it is to keep a secret.

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Hamas Appeals to Islamic Jihad
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday a series of Qassam rockets that were shot out of Gaza by the Palestinians landed in Israel.
No one was hurt.

Out of fear of Israeli retaliation Hamas leadership in Gaza decided to act in an unprecedented way.
Hamas appealed to Islamic Jihad to stop lobbing the rockets into Israel.

Never before has Hamas actually issued a direct request to stop shooting rockets at Israel.
This was not simply a public request, it was a personal and direct request to stop shooting rockets at Israel.

Hamas went further.
Hamas said that Islamic Jihad has the ability to solve the problem and can totally stop the launching of all rockets into Israel within an hour of issuing the order.
We'll see.

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Russia Partners With Libya
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Libya are negotiating a nuclear deal.
The idea is for Moscow to build nuclear reactors for Libya.
Moscow will also provide Libya with the nuclear fuel to run the reactors.

Russia makes billions of dollars a year providing nuclear resources to countries just like Libya and Iran.
The big risk is that countries like Libya and Iran are not reliable.
Under the "watchful" eyes of countries like Libya and Iran these nuclear tools can easily fall into the wrong people's hands.

The consequences are potentially devastating for the world.
Russia doesn't care.
Russia just wants to make a quick buck and is willing to do it at the expense of the world.

That is not just speculation.
That is exactly what has happened in Iran.

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Obama's First Security Briefing
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Today, November 6th President elect Barack Obama received his very first security briefing.
Obama received the exact same security briefing that President George Bush had received first thing that morning.

Obama has a very serious learning curve ahead of him.
The hardest thing for him to do will be to reconcile his world view with information he receives in security briefings.
It will be a devastating clash of ideology and reality.
Briefings are not political.
Briefings inform the president of major and minor threats to the United States and to US interests and US citizens at home and abroad.

Briefings are talks about friends and foes and those in the middle who are sometimes friends and sometimes foes.
Briefings describe a big game a chess with big name players like China, Iran, Russia, almost all Middle East leaders and of course, Al Qaeda.
At the beginning it will be very difficult for the new president to assess what is real and what is machismo, to determine which are idle threats and what is rhetoric.

Daily security briefings are the bottom line.
The United States has enemies and there is no way transforming these enemies into lovers.
That's a hard lesson for a new president to learn.

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A Change of Shirt
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It is the day after.
And the biggest loser in this election was two term winner George Bush.

America wanted a "change of shirt."
It didn't really matter who would bring about that change, it was the change itself that mattered.

Change of shirt is a mood that pervades our country every few years.
It last happened in the 2006 mid term elections and it happened again on November 4, 2008.
The brilliance of the Obama advisory team is evidenced by their ability to size up the American electorate.
They intuited that Americans wanted a change of shirt and that is what they promoted.
"Change," and "4 More Years" - the choice of slogans was more emotional than marketing.

This election was a referendum on George Bush.
America has changed shirts.
God bless America.

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Lebanon Embraces Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

By all rights Lebanon should be one of the most reasonable and liberal and open Arab countries.
But just yesterday Lebanese President Emile Lahoud was in Iran talking to Ahmadinejad who heaped great praise and blessings on the Lebanese leader.

Here is an excerpt from the Iranian leader's blessing:
"Lebanon's enemies are weaker than in the past and the Lebanese nation can thwart all the plots and acts of hostility brought upon by the Zionist regime."

Lebanon sees just how important Iran is in the region. Lebanon sees Iran as an essential power which will support them and help Lebanon achieve their goals.
Iran is looking for friends and allies.
There is little doubt that the frolicking between the two countries is part of a carefully planned mutual mission.

Judging by press coverage, the Lebanese-Iranian mission does not appear to be very pro-Western.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to elections:
sometimes the polls get things wrong
sometimes conventional wisdom is just wrong
sometimes it is just simply too confusing to understand

Right now I am puzzled by some of the polls and convinced of how others a simply wrong.

Gallup has a poll that was taken on October 24 of 500 Jewish likely voters.
The poll suggests that:
74 % of Jews over 55 are more likely to vote Obama.
67 % of Jews 35 and under said that they would vote Obama.

Older Jews are more likely to vote Obama than younger ones.

If Gallup is right, that's a real eye opener.
For months we have been hearing about how elderly Jews have been supporting McCain.

Or are the polls just wrong?

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Egypt Liberalizing?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is one of the big leaders in the Arab world.
Egypt sets the tone for much of what happens in the Arab world.

Next week a slew of meeting will be taking place in Egypt.
The Arab Quartet will hold a meeting in Egypt.
Secretary of State Rice will have meetings in Egypt.
Palestinians will meet with Egyptians in Egypt.
Hamas and Fatah will be meeting in Egypt.
Several world leaders will come to Egypt to be briefed and even Israel will be hovering around and conducting meetings.

So it can only be seen as a good sign that in a speech today President Mubarak of Egypt promised more reforms in his country.
Mubarak assured his country that he will be instituting programs to combat poverty.
Egypt, like most countries in the world is petrified of economic fallout from the US.

The biggest income source for Egypt today is tourism.
Egypt knows that when the world markets it makes a huge impact on visitors.
Mubarak was trying to bolster his people.
More than that, he is creating a plan to help the poor of Egypt who until now have been ignored.
How liberalizing.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Politics provides great material for humorists.
We have all seen, heard or read the running commentary of comedians on presidential election.

It won't stop with the elections.
Once a winner has been declared humorists will find other, new material with which to bring their points home.

Yesterday Sarah Palin took a phone call she thought was from French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
The caller told Palin he thought she would be a great president someday.
The humor in this call is that the caller was a comedian dialing from Canadian.

Humor keeps politicians honest.
Political humor is more biting and more powerful than political commentary.
It is also more insightful.

Keep the humor coming.

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Those Condemn the US
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

About a week ago US special ops soldiers entered into Syria by way of Iraq and attacked and killed a major terrorist leader. The US strike was aimed to hit the place where terrorists were trained.

The base was just over the Iraqi border.
Syria condemned the raid and is calling for action against the United States.
North Korea condemned the raid in a public statement.
Iran condemned the raid and Ahmadinejad called it "a blind and savage act."

Syria, North Korea and Iran all have similar reasons to unite against the raid.
All three countries despise the United States.

Interestingly, the Iraqi government also condemned the raid.
Iraq condemned the raid out of fear that Syria would retaliate against them.
And Syria has already retaliated by breaking off diplomatic relations with Iraq and trying to organize other Arabs to follow suit.
That will not happen.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

AP Yahoo released a poll on Friday saying that 1 in 7 potential voters are still undecided. That translates to 14% of the electorate.

For months now so-called experts have been saying that fewer and fewer voters are still undecided voters.
In reality 14%-18% of voters are and have always been undecided.
The big question is not for whom these undecided people will vote.
The issue is whether these undecided voters will actually vote at all.

There is no doubt that many undecided people make up their mind in the poll booth. But many of the undecided do not even go out to the polling stations. They will stay at home or go to work - they are not apathetic, they just can not bring themselves to make the decision to vote.

It is a character trait. They will let other people decide for them so that they can avoid making decisions.

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Iran and Syria Updates
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The AP reported yesterday that Iran was secretly using a new and different method of enriching uranium.

Countries must openly declare how they are enriching uranium.
Not to declare is a violation of international treaties and accords.
The International Atomic Energy Agency must be informed about all methods being used to enrich uranium and the IAEA was given no notice by Iran.

The Iranians were attempting to convert spent reactor to make it usable and then enrich it. Iran discovered that part of the waste in the reactor is uranium. The idea is to harvest what they can from the reactor, enrich it and then, hopefully, use it in a reactor. It is like recycling.

At the same time that this story was breaking another enormously important event was taking place in the region.

The Syrians started dismantling their border posts on the Iraqi border.
The Syrians also cut their diplomatic relations with Iraq.
The Syrians did this in order to make a point about the US special ops raid into their country.

The Middle East is hot and happening right now.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Sources have announced that the Obama campaign has asked Rahm Emanuel to be the chief of staff in the new White House.

That could be a huge mistake for Obama.
Americans do not like their votes taken for granted.
There are still too many states up for grabs.

Emanuel is very capable, he was a key figure in the Clinton White House and then ran on his own and won a Congressional seat in Illinois.
Emanuel offers experience and insight, he would be a great chief of staff.
But 5 days before the election is not the time to announce key appointments.

Many American have been repulsed by the over use of polls in this election. People feel as if they have already voted, they feel that the polls say it all.
This announcement could backfire on Obama.

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Listen to the Ayatollah
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

If you want good insight into the thinking of Iranian leadership pay close attention to the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Ayatollah recent gave a speech about the United States.
The speech was delivered to mark the 29th anniversary of the storming of the United States Embassy.

The upshot of the entire presentation was that Iran is justified in their hatred of the United States. Justified not because of the past few years, but because over the past 50 years the US has continuously tried to destabilize Iran.

He blames the CIA for the coup that ousted Mohammed Mosaddeq in the 50's. He blames the US for supporting the Shah.
He blames the US for the conflict in Iraq.
Khamenei blames the US for everything.

The most important lesson we can learn is that because Iranians consider their hatred of the United States as justified, that hatred cannot and will not fade away, not even if the United States changes policy under a new president.
That is the way Iranian leadership thinks.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last night AP announced that according to their polls Obama has won.
According to the AP polls Obama has hurdled the electoral college with the 270 votes needed for victory.
According to the AP polls Obama won over 23 states plus the District of Columbia giving him 286 electoral college votes.

The AP data says that even if McCain wins all the states in question he cannot win the election.

Now we have a problem.
It is not clear to me that polling of the states is all that accurate.
In Florida it is accurate because so much money went into Florida to get a good set of samples to insure that this election Florida will not be the disaster it was during the previous election. But that is only Florida, not the other 49.

These state polls cannot statistically represent the state. It is just too difficult and would take too much money to get a fair sample and accurate assessment of states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Internal campaign pollsters are getting accurate numbers.
That is because the campaigns have what the media pollsters do not have - people working the field who can help the statisticians get closer to a representative sampling of the state.

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Taliban & the US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There are many reasons never to talk to the Taliban.
There are many more reasons to talk to them.
The Taliban is not a monolith.

The Taliban is composed of hundreds of small groups, tribes and families.

Many of the tribes are not at all connected to the hierarchy of the Taliban, they belong because it is an affiliation that keeps them safe.

The United States must not speak to the Taliban leadership.
The United States can and must speak to Taliban mid level chiefs and warlords.

The hierarchy of the Taliban is spun like a web, the people the United States speaks with must be carefully vetted and proven to have good connections and good Intel.

Most of the time, lower level Taliban leaders are willing to make agreements even with the enemy in exchange for something they want. Sometimes it is weapons, sometimes information, sometimes access, sometimes respect.

The United States must first know what it happening on the ground.
Then the United States uses that intel to get to the higher echelon Taliban on US terms, not Taliban terms.

Use the group to destroy the group - that is the only way.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Media Watch called something to my attention that I consider to be relevant to our understanding of how far the influence of the United States really reaches.

A story running in the Palestinian press contained an interview with a man who was organizing volunteers within the Palestinian Authority to randomly call United States citizens living in the United States and influence them to vote for Obama.

This Palestinian was using broadband calling so the phone calls were free and the volunteers were free. He did not buy a list. The volunteers were just dialing the phone. Whoever answered, answered and was then engaged in dialogue by a Palestinian living in the Palestinian Authority.

What I found most interesting was the response of other Palestinians.

According to the Palestinian press reporting on this story most Palestinians are apathetic about the US election because they feel that no matter who is elected, either way, the strong friendship between the United States and Israel will continue.

That is worth hearing about.
The vast majority of the Muslim world understands the special relationship that the United States of America, not the president of the United States, has with Israel.

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US Strikes Inside Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

United States helicopters struck Syria yesterday.
National Syrian TV and radio reported that 8 civilians were killed in the village during the US air raid.
The United States has confirmed that they struck an operations network inside Syria.

It seems that the US helicopters actually landed and special ops units engaged and neutralized a command and control structure in Syria that was launching terrorists over the Syrian border into Iraq in order to kill US troops and create unrest among locals by attacking local targets.

Syria has been sitting on its hands for too long so, the US had to take matters into their own hands. That is the way it is done in that part of the world.
Syria condemned the raid, but there is nothing they can do about it.
Syria has been so inactive and so apathetic about that border that they were practically begging the US to respond against the terrorists.

The kicker is that international law permits these strikes for these very reasons.
Terrorists were being launched and the host country did nothing to stop them.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The largest newspaper in Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News, has just endorsed Barack Obama for president.
That was a shocker.

The paper argues that it is just too risky to have Sarah Palin "one 72 year old heartbeat from the presidency."

I have read and re-read the endorsement.
It does not attack Palin.
It actually explains that she was a good governor, but that Obama would be a better choice for president.

Listen up Anchorage Daily news: Sarah Palin is not running for president, she is on the ballot for vice president.
John McCain may 72 years old, but his mother is 96 and acts like she is 72.
The Anchorage Daily News should grow up and act its age.

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US General Says Israel Can't Hit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

General John Abizaid is the former US Commander of Central Command.
His region of control included Israel and Iran.

Abizaid has made public two assertions based on his experience in the region.
What he said is very dangerous.
"That there are ways to live with a nuclear Iran."
"That Israel cannot make a lasting impression on the Iranian nuclear program."

Why am I using the word dangerous?
Because the general is giving the Iranians more information than they should have.
Because it is not clear to me that the objective of Israel is to make a lasting impression of the Iranian nuclear program.
Because now I am not sure that the general understands the region he was in control of.

The objective of Israel will be to surgically strike at Iran in order to set back Iran's nuclear operation and to call to the world's attention just how dangerous the Iranian nuclear facilities are.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The national Zogby Poll of potential voters came out today.
Zogby, which has a degree of error of 2.9, places Obama ahead of McCain by only 5 points at 49 - 44.
On Thursday the same poll was had a 12 point spread.

What is happening?
Zogby does the polling but the poll is sponsored by Reuters and C-SPAN.
Quite a lot of money goes into creating a representative sample and making certain that it is exactly that - representative.

One possibility is that the disparity in poll numbers from Thursday to Sunday tells us that people have started to change their minds and move away from Obama toward McCain. 7 points is huge for 3 days. It could be an anomaly or it could be a huge pendulum swing which then often swings back to find itself somewhere in the middle. That would give Obama an 8.5 point lead.

The other possibility is that the new results are a trend that is brought on by the quick approach of the finish line.

There is still time. We will see what happens in the next few days.

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Ahmadinejad's Health
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors are flying claiming that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is ill.

True, Ahmadinejad has canceled several activities over the past few days.
It could be a cold or it could be a more serious health issue.
In January other rumors were swirling around linking the Iranian leader to ill health and cancer.

Whatever is happening, it is important for us in the United States and in the Western world.
Ahmadinejad has been tapped by the Ayatollah to run in and to win the next Iranian election which is scheduled for June of 2009.
But if Ahmadinejad is weak or sick the Ayatollah will rescind his blessing.

There is no doubt that the real power in Iran rests with the Ayatollah but Ahmadinejad has been very successful at delivering the message of the Islamic Republic both internally and externally.
We have to keep our stethoscopes to the ground to wait and to see what emerges.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The campaign has turned to economic issues.
But one crucial issue has not made it to the campaign platforms.
The price of oil is going down, down, down and no one is talking about it.

Oil hit $63 yesterday.
Oil fell $40 in a month.
Oil is nearly $90 off its summertime peak.

OPEC, the 13 country cartel, is responding.
OPEC has decided to cut their production quota by 1.5 - 2 million barrels per day.
OPEC is asking each nation to pull back production in order to limit supply and keep prices up.

But the OPEC countries are already producing more than their 29 million barrel a day quota.
They do not want to cut back because they want the money.
They do not want to wait until the market readjusts.
So OPEC is breaking its own cartel.

If I were advising either of our political candidates I would be hammering away at oil prices.
I would help the voting public understand that despite the downturn, the cost of heating our homes this winter will be cheaper and the cost of travel will be cheaper.
I would make it clear that OPEC will not be able to profit from our hardship and losses.
I would be passing along good, positive economic news.

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Remember 25 Years Ago in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Twenty five years ago in Beirut nearly 300 US Marines were murdered when a suicide truck bomb was driven into their barracks.
It was a wake up call to the United States that was not heard until the alarm went off again on 9-11.

The Marines went in to Beirut as peacekeepers, never even realizing that in Lebanon their presence would unite the terrorists. Hezbollah was the group that planned and executed the murderous attack on the US servicemen.

Twenty five years later it is critical that we remember what happened in Beirut.
We must remember and we must also learn from the experience.
We must remember who and what Hezbollah.
We must do our best to make certain that Hezbollah does not and cannot murder us ever again.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jews have always voted Democratic. This election will be no different.

Two new polls have come out predicting the Jewish vote on November 4th.
The NYU poll says that over 60% of Jews will vote Obama while about 30% will vote for McCain.
The Gallup Group poll which was published yesterday published was more in line with previous years, it had 74% of the Jews voting for Obama and 22% for McCain.

In 2000, during the Gore/Bush battle for the White House, Gore received 80% of the Jewish vote. In 1994 Kerry got 74% of that vote.

The Jewish community is stable, it is predictable.
This year people are talking about how the Jewish vote will go Republican.
In real terms if 30% of the Jewish vote actually does go Republican, that would be a seismic shift in Jewish voting patterns.

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Al Qaeda & McCain
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 23,2008

I've Been Thinking:

An al Qaeda website claimed that they would welcome a terror attack on the United States that would help usher in John McCain as president.
Huh?

This little factoid is an essential educational tool for Americans in understanding al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda does not care who the next president of the United States will be.
Al Qaeda does care about attacking the United States.
Any excuse to attack the United States is welcomed by al Qaeda.

The McCain issue is irrelevant to Al Qaeda.
Where al Qaeda misses the boat is that the vast amount of their own adherents do care who the next president is.
Al Qaeda supporters from Asia to Europe to the Middle East and even those living in the United States look forward to an attack on America, but none of them want a terrorist attack in the US before the election.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

AP just released a poll that puts the presidential race at 44% to 43%, that's very close.
At the same time the ABC / Washington Post poll has an 11 point spread.

What's the story? What is one to think?
Regardless of what camp you are in, this race is far from over.
If Obama starts acting as if he has won or if McCain as if he has lost, it will tilt the election.
States like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida are all up for grabs.
But so are Colorado and Virginia.
It is not clear how any of these states will vote on election day.

The AP poll gives us a lot of important information.
The people AP polled were workers who earn less than $50, 000.
Given the current economic crisis that salary group might actually be a greater indicator than expected.
The AP poll might be showing us a serious shift in the voting pattern.

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The Rubber Band Effect
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Those of you who read me regularly will not be surprised to know that the polls are swinging yet again.

The polls are much like a rubber band.
And the rubber band effect is happening right now.
Like rubber bands, polling results expand and contract.
The objective of the winner is to get the rubber band to expand in your direction on the eve of election day.

Looking at both national polling data and individual state data we see that the numbers are shifting.
For John McCain, that is good news.
The good news for Barack Obama is that this shift might be occurring too early. Line any rubber band, it will soon contract.
Everyone is watching this trend as McCain's numbers increase.

If the Republican nominee's numbers climb slowly and progressively from day to day as he leaches votes from Obama, the expansion will probably last longer.

If the Republican nominee's numbers expand fast and furious, the rubber band will probably rebound sooner than November 4th.

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Iran Shoots Itself Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Did anyone catch the piece on Iran's massive ostrich sandwich?
Iran tried to break the Guinness World Book record by concocting a 4900 foot long ostrich submarine sandwich.
That is a very impressive feat.

But before the representatives of the Guinness Book of World Records could step forward to measure the sandwich, the people lunged ahead and went grabbing for the prize winning sub.
So although Iran probably did break the record - officially they did not.
Now I am waiting for the Iranians to blame Israeli or the United States for their failure.

There is a metaphor here.
This ostrich sub debacle is a perfect example of Iran's inability to seize the proper moment.
Iran successfully turned a potentially great PR event into an example of gross ineptitude.

All it took was a matter of seconds, all that was needed was a few minutes more.

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Egypt Invites Palestinians to Unite
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt issued invitations to Hamas and Fatah leaders to join together for a pow wow on November 9th.
The objective of the gathering is to try and mend fences and to agree to power share in the leadership of the Palestinian Authority.

It's a classic story;
Fatah Palestinian leadership agrees to join with Hamas and share power and is then powerless to oust Hamas extremists or to topple Hamas.

From the Hamas point of view it is a perfect arrangement:
This is exactly how Hamas was able to oust and topple Fatah in Gaza. Hamas was able to observe the Fatah power base in Gaza and then crushed it in a matter of days.

Fatah just isn't thinking strategically:
If Fatah does succeed in power sharing with Hamas they will be shunned by the US. It will mean a wall to wall rejection of Abbas in America. Considering how much Abbas is getting from the US and the pressure the US is putting on Israel for an agreement with the Palestinians plus the fact that Abbas was in the White House two weeks ago, this deal would be a big mistake.

But then again, Abbas is prone to making big mistakes.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Full disclosure: I did not see Colin Powel on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday (I was delivering a lecture in Connecticut), but I did read the transcript.

I have a great deal of respect for Colin Powel.
I think he acted with tremendous honor and responsibility when he stepped down as Secretary of State.
I know that many Americans share my sentiment and respect for Powell.
I also know that very few Americans care about his endorsement and even fewer will be swayed by it.

Americans love the mass part of the mass media.
They do not really watch the Sunday talk shows, but they do watch Saturday Night Live.
Actually, 17 million people watched SNL because they knew Sarah Palin, the real one, would be making an appearance.
Actually, this SNL had one of the best ratings ever and that was due to Sarah Palin.

Say what you will, there is a significant Sarah Factor out there.

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Japan Trounces Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, Japan trounced Iran in a United Nations General Assembly vote to fill the rotating Asian seat on the Security Council.
The vote was a shocking 158 to 32.

It was a clear message from the masses at the UN.
The world does not want Iran sitting on the only real UN body with teeth, the world does not want Iran on what is clearly the most powerful board in the UN.
Japan is a much more stayed and calming presence for the Security Council.

The Iranian response is to claim that the United Nations is intolerant.
The Iranian Ambassador to the UN said that the member states were incapable of hearing unpopular and counter ideas and opinions.

The vote shows us something.
It shows us that the ideas Iran is voicing scare not only the United States, but 157 other countries as well.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is preparing for any and all contingencies regarding the US presidential election.

What most concerns Israel hinges on an Obama victory.
Should Barack Obama become the next president of the United States, Israel expects that he will launch direct talks with Iran almost immediately.

The idea that Iran and the United States will be engaging in face to face high level meetings is shocking to most Israelis, but never the less, Israel has teams preparing a series of responses.
The end result of Israel's contingency plans provide for trilateral Iranian / US / Israeli talks.

Big questions arise:
What will happen to the Iranian enrichment programs?
How long will it take for Obama to be taught a lesson in the Middle East before he returns to the old model?
How much damage will be done in the course of this little experiment?
Will Israel's strategic security be compromised by the US/Iran dialogue?

At this point it is all hypothesis and contingency.
We'll know more after November 4th.

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US Plan: Syria Gets Golan And Dumps Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jarida, a Kuwaiti newspaper, has scooped a story that I cannot confirm - but if it is true, it is a move that will alter the face of the Middle East and the world.

In the Friday edition of the paper it was reported that George Bush asked Abbas to deliver a private letter to Assad of Syria.
None of the teams knew about this, it was to be a completely private arrangement.

According to the report, the letter stated that Syria would get everything Syria wants in a Golan Heights deal in exchange for publicly denouncing Iran.
It said that Syria must back away entirely from any relationship with Iran.
It said that all this can happen very fast.
It said that it can happen before the November 4th US presidential elections.

Everyone has denied the report.
But it sounds within the realm of possible.
Israel and Syria are getting close to a deal.
A push from the United States can bring an Israel/Syria deal to a close more easily than an Israel/Palestinian deal.

The problem is not Israel, Syria or the Golan Heights.
The problem is Iran.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Watching John McCain and Barack Obama roast each other at a Catholic charity dinner in honor of Alfred E. Smith was truly entertaining.

Neither presidential candidate is really comfortable reading humor but they each delivered a few good zingers and it was a delight to watch them in fun mode.
The McCain writing was tighter and funnier.
The Obama presentation was more a stump speech punctuated by jokes and humor.
And they both looked great in white tie.

The most important aspect of the evening was that both men appeared human.
They were actually more human when laughing at the other's lines than when they were delivering their own punches.

They were able to laugh at themselves.
I have always said that the ability to find humor in a situation and to laugh at yourself is a very important quality in a president.

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Deal For Shalit
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A Saudi newspaper named Ukaz reported on Thursday that Israel has totally accepted Hamas' demands in the hope that Gilad Shalit will be returned to Israel.

Shalit is the Israeli soldier who has been held by terrorists in Gaza for over two years, ever since his capture in a cross border attack into Israel during the summer of 2006.

The deal, as described in the paper, has two stages.
In the first stage Israel releases 450 Hamas prisoners.
In the second stage Israel releases another 550 prisoners.

The Israelis have completely denied this report.
But earlier this week there was talk that Israel would have to revamp their traditional prisoner release model and look seriously at releasing Hamas prisoners with blood on their hands.

Very little has been accomplished to save Shalit using third party discussions.
If the objective is to free Shalit a change of paradigm is needed.
But is it worth the price?

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Obama took his campaign to West Virginia yesterday.
Why West Virginia? There are several reasons.

The last time West Virginia took its 5 electoral college votes and went blue i.e. Democratic, was in 1996. That was when Clinton beat Dole.

West Virginian is thought to be the perfect Republican state. But so far, the state is still undecided. So Obama is showing a little swagger. He is there to push and pull the traditionally red state back to the Clinton era.

It is not about the 5 votes, it is about what West Virginian symbolizes.
If Obama can sway West Virginia the entire momentum of the election shifts into the Obama court. That means an election like the 1984 Reagan vs Mondale race in which Mondale only took 13 electoral votes - 10 from his home state of Minnesota plus 3 from DC. The result was a 525 - 13 electoral vote win for Reagan.

West Virginia is not a battleground state.
West Virginian is a flood state.
If West Virginian goes blue, the flood gates open.
If West Virginia remains red, the fight drags on.

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Jackson Does It Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jesse Jackson put his foot in his mouth once again.
His comments were very revealing - not about himself but about Barack Obama.
While at a conference in France Jackson spoke to columnist Amri Tahiri and explained that as part of the change in priorities that Barack Obama would bring to Washington, D.C. the security of Israel would no longer remain a high priority.
According to Jackson, Obama would put everyone on an even field. Jackson asserted that Obama understands the situation well.
He said Obama will correct the "decades of putting Israel's interests first."
He said: "Barack is determined to repair our relations with the world of Islam and Muslims."
He said: "Thanks to his background and ecumenical approach, he knows how Muslims feel while remaining committed to his own faith."
The Obama campaign rejected the Jackson comments.
The interesting point is that these comments will in no way effect the voters. Those in favor of Obama will still support him and those who oppose him will be baffled that even this revelation, by a personal friend, brought about no change.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The final Presidential Debate finished up last night.
Once again, what a disappointment.

Presidential debates do not have to be inspiring, but they should at least be entertaining, they should at least provide the public with some insights.
Voters are less interested in sparring than they are in personal details.
Of all the debates this one had the most tension, but even that led nowhere.

As I review the debates I have come to a conclusion.
It is the moderators, not the candidates, who are at fault for the lackluster quality of the presidential debates.
The moderators were incapable of getting to the heart of the candidates.
The moderators were content with almost every answer they received.
The moderators hardly ever followed up seriously on any issue and did not force the candidates to think seriously or show us who they really are.

High school debates pack more wallop than these presidential debates.

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Relious Tolerance Conference in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Former UN secretary General Kofi Annan is in Teheran this week.
Annan is in Iran to attend a conference on religious tolerance called the "Conference on Religion in the Modern World."

Participants also include former leaders from Italy, France and Portugal.
All the guests at the conference are there on the invitation of Mohammad Khatami, the former president of Iran and a current challenger to Ahmadinejad.

When Saudi Arabia held a pluralistic conference Iran shouted that the idea was antithetical to Islam. Now that Iran is sponsoring a conference and Khatami is running it, everything is, to borrow a phrase, kosher. Khatami is the head of the Center for Dialogue among Religions and Civilizations. It is that Center that sponsored the event.

This conference has been covered in the Iranian press.
That coverage signals to us that Khatami is making his move and getting ready to enter the presidential elections.
Khatami will present a serious challenge Ahmadinejad in June.

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Kuwait to Rehabilitate Extremists
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday the Kuwaiti government announced a new program for dealing with extremists.
The new program is called: Rehabilitation.

Kuwait said that they will be "treating" the extremists.
The problem with the announcement is that Kuwait did not clarify who and what constitutes an extremist or what rehab methods would be used.

This announcement by Kuwait sounds a lot like current Chinese and North Korean responses to social deviants and to the old Soviet style of reeducation.
My guess is that the Kuwaitis will engage in religious reprogramming and indoctrination. No mere idea reeks of Clockwork Orange.

There is a long history of imprisonment and torture of extremists in the Arab world. As unsavory as it sounds, the methods have been proven successful in the past.

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Muslims Cheer US Economic Fall
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Voices in the Muslim world have become loud and aggressive when talking about the economic turmoil now taking hold in the United States.

Al Qaeda has made it clear that this is a punishment and that the US will inevitably fall.

Ismail Haniyah, the leader of Hamas, gave a sermon in Gaza during Friday prayers and said: "We are witnessing the collapse of the American Empire" ... "What's going on in America is a result of the violation of the rights of people in Palestine, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Muslims around the world."

Iran's Ahmadinejad said: "Now the world capacity is full and these problems have returned to the U.S." He added: "and finally they are oppressors, and systems based on oppression and unrighteous positions will not endure."

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a Iranian cleric who is a significant religious force in Iran said : "We are happy that the U.S. economy is in anarchy and the anarchy is reaching Europe." ... "They are seeing the result of their own ugly doings and God is punishing them."

And we thought it was just greed and mismanagement.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Election momentum seemed to have shifted in Obama’s direction.

You hear the ease in his voice when he speaks.

You sense the charge and power flowing through the crowds as he speaks.

But the election is far from over.

There are 2 factors to look at in the last 3 weeks of a presidential election:

# 1: The undecided voter - and there are 18% of them still to vote
# 2: The rubber band effect - numbers that bounce back and forth, expand and contract, in a cyclical way.

Certainly, there is still time for blunders and mistakes, but unless those are humongous, they are only a very small part of what really matters.

Right now, the rubber band is favoring Barack Obama.

It will bounce back again.

The question is, will it contract enough and at the right time for John McCain.

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Abbas in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday night Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas arrived in Syria.
Abbas is scheduled to meet with Syrian leaders, among them Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The purpose of the visit and the meeting is to brief Syria on inner Palestinians talks, on the Fatah / Hamas talks.
For over a year there has been a bitter, sometimes murderous, feud between Fatah and Hamas. Up until now Egypt has attempted to mediate and has failed miserably.
Now Syria is interested in the resolving the inner Palestinian conflict.

Syria is a strong and significant supporter of Hamas.
Assad recently met with Hamas leaders in discussions very similar to the discussion he will be having with Hamas.

Syria has a game strategy.
Syria wants to exercise power, nudge Egypt out of position and secure a big role as Arab player and peacemaker.
The Palestinians are pawns on the Syrian playing field.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The weekend brought what should be some good economic news.
The price per barrel of oil dropped to about $78.

That news should make people feel better.
That news should be heralded by the present president and the presidential wannabes to shore up the economy

Of course, one of the reasons the price went down is because the speculation market is expecting lower demand given the economic crisis, but right now everyone should just go with the flow.
The lower cost of oil is exactly the spin that could jumpstart markets and get them back up and running.
The lower cost of oil can serve to provide both consumers and investors with the strength, the oomph, to jump back.

I would have liked to hear the candidates discuss this change in oil prices, but I didn't hear it because neither of them mentioned it.
When you have an item that can make people feel better, use it.
Anyone who knows anything about the economy knows that attitude is everything.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I keep hammering away on the subject of national polls.
I keep saying that the national opinion of Americans really doesn’t matter.
I keep saying that national polling data is not even a close indicator of what might happen on Election Day.

I keep saying that what matters is electoral college polls.
I keep saying that what matters is how each stare, not the individual residents of that state, is fairing.

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
The best electoral college polling data as of Friday afternoon is:
Obama with 277, of those 211 are solid and 66 are leaning
McCain with 158, of those 143 are solid and 15 are leaning
103 electoral college votes are still up in the air

Three things could be happening:
# 1: The polls are totally wrong
# 2: There is no clear way of polling electoral votes and all the money is really going towards national polls
# 3: Obama has it in the bag and the only way to make this race even close is for McCain to sway all the leaning states and all the up-in-the air states and still swipe a handful of votes leaning towards Obama

I would go with the # 1 or # 2.
It would be nearly impossible for McCain to overcome that kind of difference.

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US Beats Iran in Pistachios
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is about honor and pride.
Beating someone at their own game is tantamount to dishonoring them.

Unbeknownst to most of the world until this year Iran was the largest producer of pistachios in the world.
This year the United States will be the largest pistachio producer in the world.
Iran is losing to California in the pistachio war.

Pistachios are the second largest export of Iran after oil.
Last year Iran produced 280 tons of pistachios and reaped a billion in revenues.
This year Iran is down 75% due to a very cold spring which is harvest time.
This year the United States will produce 190 tons of pistachio nuts and Iran will not come anywhere close to that.

I know that it sounds weird but it is a global market.
If people in the Muslim world want pistachio nuts - which they do - they will have to buy them from the good ol’ USA.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Voter registration is becoming an issue in the presidential election.
Too many irregularities by too many people are being reported.

Acorn, a grass roots registration group that targets blacks for registration in large cities and encourages them to vote for Barack Obama, has come under serious scrutiny. It began about a week ago because too many people have come out saying that Acorn is forcing them to register more than once.

And The New York Times is reporting that people who registered within the past two weeks are being removed from the voter logs in Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada. Most of these are battleground states.

And election committees are saying that they are trying to remove the names of people who should not be on the list because they are dead. They say they are doing this to fulfill the Help America Vote Act from 2002.

Something is wrong.
A fix is needed before the election.

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Russia Enters Abkhazia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Russia - Georgia situation seems to be taking a new turn.
Foreign journalists, and some Russian journalists, are reporting that Russian troops are advancing into Abkhazia.

The journalists report that they witnessed and followed 50-60 armed vehicles as they advanced from a Russian base into Abkhazia.

That could mean several things.
It could mean that Russia is planning to fortify its control and solidify its friendship with Abkhazia.
It could also mean that this is another typically Russian plot to lure Georgia into a conflict over control of Abkhazia.

Two distinct possibilities, neither one is good news.
Only time will tell what it really happening.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The dust is still settling on the presidential debate.
It seems clear that this go around there was no clear cut winner.
Obama or McCain, call it either way, whichever candidate won did not win my much.
But that's not the point.

Everyone agrees that John McCain needed much more than a small win, he needed a knock out and no such punch was hit or received.
But searching out and waiting for a punch in a debate is anti-climactic.
What we should be looking for is the new issues that a candidate raises, issues that will dominate and punctuate his talking points and stump speeches for the next few days.

McCain's mortgages aside, this debate was one long run on sentence - a series of lines anyone who has heard a stump speech has heard before.
No one changes their minds after watching a debate, but no one should feel bad for having taken the time to sit through a debate.

That's where both candidates failed.
America does not feel better for having heard this presidential debate.

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Samir Kuntar Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I just watched a video of Samir Kuntar firing a shoulder mounted disposable rocket propelled grenade.
It looked like Kuntar was getting a demonstration and firing the grenade for the first time.

Samir Kuntar is the heinous terrorist recently released from Israeli prison in exchange for the mutilated, murdered bodies of the two captured Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.

It was just a matter of time before Kuntar fell back on his ways and involved himself in new terrorist activities. Kuntar never expressed remorse for his actions, not even for his bludgeoning of a child to death with the butt of his rifle after having her witness the murder of her father.

Samir Kuntar has become a hero.
Samir Kuntar is now the inspiration for young terrorist wannabees,
Samir Kuntar is setting an example for young terrorists, encouraging them to join the movement.
The arms training video I watched was probably part of a terrorist recruitment program.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Like many of you I turned on my TV to watch the presidential debate.
What a disappointment.

I won't be surprised when the ratings come out to learn that many Americans left the debate after the first thirty minutes for Law & Order and CSI reruns.

The first presidential debate had 15 million viewers.
The vice presidential debate had nearly 70 million viewers.
The vice presidential debate was entertaining but that was only part of the reason behind its rating success.

The Palin Effect.
Americans tuned in, en masse, to the vice presidential debate because whether you lover her or hate her, people are curious about Sarah Palin.
The draw was a new fresh look at a completely different type of candidate.

The McCain/Obama Show has been going on for so long it takes a lot of extra effort to generate anything new or different.
Last night I looked for, but could not find, that extra effort.

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Venezuela and France
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

France has just offered Venezuela a very sweet deal.

France offered to provide Venezuela with nuclear technology, to build power plants and even to provide other, more advanced, nuclear technology.

Venezuela said "no."
Why did Venezuela say "no?"

Because one, pretty obvious, hitch came with the deal.
France wants Venezuela to be an intermediary with Iran on the nuclear issue.

Actually, France came up with a very good idea.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad have a very close relationship. And France has a better relationship with Venezuela than does any other Western European country or the United States.

It could work. Venezuela could actually speak to Iran in a way and on a level that could be very convincing.

But it would also be problematic. Chavez does not want to do the Western world's bidding and be an arm of his sworn adversary, the United States.

Besides, Chavez does not think that he needs the French because he thinks he will get all future technology from Iran after they finish developing the technology.

As much as it pains me to say this, the French are starting to act and sound like world leaders.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Both the Democrats and the Republicans have spent a lot of time these past few days pointing accusatory fingers and saying that the other side has gotten personal.
Of course they got personal, that's the American way.

In American politics the election is about character, it's about issues that relate to a party leader not just for what he thinks but also for what he does.

In America voters are more interested in a nominee's character than they are in his stand on issues. It's not for the sake of gossip, it's for insight into the character of the candidate.

In American elections today a candidate's friends and activities are as important as his tax returns. And they may be even more important than his health care plan. Most Americans cannot or will not understand the tax plan, the health plan or the plan a candidates puts forth for social security, but they will understand the associates and affiliations of the candidate.

In America today the election is not about drugs and whether or not someone inhaled, it is about whether the voter can trust a candidate and whether the voter believes in the candidate.

In America the voter makes that determination based on a series of variables and one of the top ranking variables in the minds of most voters is very, very personal.

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Iran and The Price of Oil
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is starting to flex some muscle.
Iran has expressed disappointment that the price of oil has dropped below $95 per barrel.
Iran has announced that the dropping of the price of oil is neither beneficial nor helpful to the Muslim countries.

At the same time Iran is clearly demonstrating how it does not understand world economies and why their own economy is in such dreadful condition. They fail to understand that price of oil is not only determined by the producer of the product.

Prices are also determined by demand.
The demand for oil has dropped since the price when high.
Now there is a glut of oil on the market.

If Iran wants to keep the price high they have to decrease world production.
But if they succeed in decreasing production and keeping the price elevated they might make less money than dropping the price.

People will buy more oil when the price of oil comes down.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This election has taken on a new dimension.
Welcome to the world of dueling comedians.

First came Sarah Silverman's plea to young Jews to schlep to Florida to convince their grandparents to vote Obama. Her video is all over the place.
Now comes Jackie Mason with his own You Tube shtik calling Silverman a Yenta and explaining that people should vote the way they want and that does not make them a bigot.
Both comedians are very entertaining and certainly more poignant than late night one liners.

The weird reality is that one significant reason this election is different from previous presidential elections is precisely because the battle over votes is being waged on so many new media fronts.

Another reality is that the elderly living in Florida are more likely to be influenced by their grandchildren than by the media and their grandchildren are influenced by comedians on You Tube.

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Syrian Chutzpah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has chutzpah.

Syria is being investigated by the IAEA and yet, until yesterday, that fact did not stop the Syrians from trying to become a member of the 35 member IAEA board.

On the same day that Syria withdrew their nomination for the board, Syria told the IAEA inspectors that they could not inspect the bases in question. Syria said that they would fully cooperate with the IAEA but with a caveat - not at the expense of their national security.

Syria wants to emulate Iran's modus operendi. They announce total cooperation but then attach a slew of conditions and limitations.

And Syria gets away with it.
Last month the IAEA inspection committee reported that the evidence they had gathered in Syria concerning nuclear development was inconclusive.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone is talking about the debate.
The vice presidential debate was in many ways more interesting than last week's presidential match up and will probably be more interesting than next week's presidential debate.

The vice presidential debate ended in a tie.
US presidential elections today are all about looks and image.
Both nominees looked good.
Both nominees sounded good.
In the reality that is today's presidential campaign truth and accuracy are irrelevant, passion and appearance are what counts.

Sarah Palin smiled and joked and Joe Biden chatted and laughed and that was important. Actually, the personality traits that were allowed to emerge during this debate were more important than any single argument either person presented.

When Joe Biden said he knows what it feels like to be a single parent and when Sarah Palin said she knows what is means to be middle class they were trying to relate to middle America.
The way I see it, both the senator and the governor successfully accomplished what they set out to do.

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Syria Rebuilding Their Nuke
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Asharq al Awsat is reporting that Syria is reestablishing nuclear foundations with the assistance of North Korea.

The report appeared in the Thursday edition of this London published Arabic language newspaper. Asharq al Awsat is usually a reliable resource. It is one of the few critical papers written in Arabic. The paper's only concern about not towing party lines is the safety of correspondents who may be in parts of the Arab and Muslim world that take exception to their coverage.

The report also quotes Israeli sources saying that they will not permit Syria to grow atomically in "the model of Iran." That means that Israel is prepared to nip Syria's nuclear development like they did last September 6th.

Iran was permitted free growth on its atomic program and now it is out of control. Dealing with Iran now requires intervention by the entire world and even then positive results are unlikely.

Syria, on the other hand, will be handled with a single surgical strike.

The tension between Syria and Israel has risen dramatically.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Vice presidential debates are often more interesting than the presidential debates.

Think back four years, Cheney/Lieberman was a much better show than Bush/Gore.

When Sarah Palin took the stage in Minnesota she made a big splash.

As is the case with all splashes, the further from the point of entry the smaller the ripple and in the winks since the Convention, the excitement has dissipated.

Palin needs another big splash, the debate was the perfect vehicle.
All she had to do was hold your own against Biden, stick to time, smile.

She did more than that.

She showcased her personality and charm and did it with a sense of humor.

Those who hate Sarah Palin will continue to hate Sarah Palin.
Those who like Sarah Palin will continue to like Sarah Palin.
Those who have not yet made up their minds might be swayed by the real person, not just the politician, they saw in the vice presidential debate.

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Iran Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is putting its cards on the table.

During his weekly briefing the foreign minister of Iran clearly said that Iran has no plans to conform to the UN Security Council call to cease developing nuclear technology.

The briefing, which is an official statement of policy, made it clear that Iran views nuclear development as a right and that the United Nations is overstepping its bounds.
The statement went on to say that Iran should be no different than any other country wishing to develop alternative energy resources.

In principle, Iran is correct.
But principle is not practice.
Iran has not been transparent in their development of nuclear technology.
And no other country has threatened to wipe another country off the map.

Iran is not like other countries.

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Rosh Hashanah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Rosh Hashanah, celebrated by Israeli Jews, American Jews and Jews all round the year, is a time of inspiration, introspection and soul searching.

This year's self evaluation is particularly poignant.
Only days ago, Israel's prime minister stepped down from office. As always when politics are in the balance deep existential questions arise.

This year's Israeli elections are coupled with the impending US presidential election.
For American Jews and for Israelis the US election sends shivers down spines. One of the big questions Jews are asking themselves is whether these candidates, one of whom will soon hold the position of most powerful leader in the world, will commit to protect Israel in the face of a true Iranian threat.

Soul searching does not provide answers.
It just raises anxiety levels.
May this be a blessed year for all Americans and for all Israelis.

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Austria Goes Right
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

According to the results of a new vote in Austria, one third of all voters have cast their support behind parties that are far to the right.
This is significant.

18% voted for the Freedom Party.
11% voted for the Alliance for the Future of Austria Party.
That means 29% of Austrians have aligned themselves with the far right.
In the past extreme right wing parties have not cooperated.

The vote itself was historic in many ways.
This is the first time 16 year olds were permitted to go to the polls and cast a ballot for the 183 seats that were up for grabs in this Austrian election.

Austria has approached a crossroad.
Austria has a history of embracing extremism as a response to economic crisis. We should watch and observe as Austria confronts its future.

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Egypt Convicts Editor of Truth
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt an appeals court upheld the conviction, but reduced the sentence, of a news editor who wrote a news story about President Mubarak.
The incident took place last March.
The original 6 month sentence was reduced to 2 months, but the conviction was upheld.

The editor, Ibrahim Eissa, was found guilty of threatening national stability by questioning the health of the president.
Indeed, Mubarak's health was in question in March and I was able to bring that fact to the attention of the Western press precisely because Eissa covered the subject.

Egypt is one of the West's most significant allies and one of the chief issues on which that alliance balances is the issue of transition. So if the health of the president is in question, that certainly is a huge issue for the West and for Western decision makers.

Eissa provided a great service, not a disservice.
But I'm a Westerner and that's the way I think.
This entire incident should serve to remind us that Egypt is a not a democracy, Egypt is a dictatorship.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 29, 3008

I've Been Thinking:

When I heard the candidates embrace the bailout during the debate, I was surprised.
That would have been the perfect time for both of them to lay the blame elsewhere.

Now that the bailout has come through and now that the polling numbers are clearer, both candidates are more reserved about the bailout.
The candidates lost an opportunity to separate themselves, instead, they will be painted with the same brush.

Even McCain's return to DC was choreographed to insulate the Republican candidate. He was there to lend his hand and to put his shoulder to the wheel. But he did not endorse the program, he was hesitant when discussing it during the debate and is even more so now.
Obama said what he needed to say, that this fix will not help.

Make no mistake about it - if the bailout works both candidates will claim success and if it fails they will both say I told you so.

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Terror in Damascus
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A devastating car bomb blasted downtown Damascus, Syria yesterday.
The bomb killed 17 people.

This was not the first of such incidents to shatter Syria, a country that is normally quiet, a country that has been traditionally held under the thumbnail of a thuggish tyrant.

Many theories abound as to the culprit.
Obviously, the Arab press will point their fingers at Israel.
But when you look at the probable target of this car bomb, Israel does not seem like a likely perpetrator.
The target was probably the offices of Syrian intelligence.

This was probably an Arab on Arab attack.
The perpetrator may have been Hezbollah getting back at the assassination of one of their leaders 2 weeks ago.
Or it may have been one of the Lebanese Palestinian groups upset at Syria.
It may even have been Iranian agents wanting to stimulate instability to insure that Syria and Iran remain close.

Israel is way down the list of probable groups to take aim at this target in Damascus.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The first debate is over and actually, I was surprised by several things.
I consider this debate to be a tie.
And when McCain ties Obama, that is a victory for McCain.

I was certain that McCain would look old and slow, but he did not.
I was certain that Obama would sound patronizing, but he did not.
Obama is not great at these debates because they are neither prepared nor tele-prompted, but he did surprisingly well.

Now to the most salient point about debates:
Debates are not really about substance.
Debates are about emotions, feelings and perceptions.
When you look at the polls it is clear that Obama comes out on top and that happens regardless of what he says.

For Obama the medium, in this case the media, becomes the message.
McCain has to work much harder to please the public.

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Muslims Have Jerusalem Day
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The head of Hezbollah and his followers in Lebanon celebrated Jerusalem day yesterday. And thousands gathered in Iran. And in Gaza there were Hamas sponsored celebrations.

The tone in all three cities was identical.
It was the chants that were different.

In Lebanon Hezbollah chanted:
Israel is the enemy and Palestine extends from the Jordan River to the Red Sea. "That no one has the right to give up one grain, wall or stone of the Holy Land."

In Teheran Iranians chanted:
Death to the Zionists.
This is a pan Muslim issue where everyone must unite against the Zionists.

In Gaza Hamas chanted:
A call for suicide bombers.

Nobody mentioned the beauty or majesty of Jerusalem.
Everyone spoke about murdering Jews.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The presidential debates are far too overrated.
82% of Americans have already made their presidential decisions.
The other 18% will decide at the very last moment.

The undecided vote is undecided because that is who they are, that is how they live their lives. They spend most of the time in an indecision limbo, vacillating from one side to the other, and only make decisions when forced to. They thrive on waiting for the final moment.

The candidates say much of the same things.
The commentators say much of the same things.
Everyone who has already decided just extols the virtues of their candidate more and more based on the virtues and performances and advertisements of their candidate as opposed to the other guy.

And low and behold, the undecided remain undecided.

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Israel Could Strike Iran - But
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The British newspaper The Guardian ran a news piece by Jonathan Steele yesterday that referred back to the visit of US president George Bush to Israel on May 14th to celebrate Israel's 60th birthday.
Steele writes that when Bush was in Jerusalem Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asked for a green light to bomb Iran and was given a red light instead.

Steele's sources are a little questionable, but the idea rings true enough.
Every single meeting between American and Israeli higher ups has the bombing of Iran as a significant part of the agenda.
I will say, however, that the typical response by the US is a yellow light, advising that Israel proceed with caution, rather than a red light.

There are no notes of this meeting. It was truly a private meeting and only afterwards did one of the parties talk to a European leader who then told his staff who leaked the story.

There really is nothing new here.
Israel is working hard on creating plans but cannot and will not act without that green light from the United States.
Right now, that light is stuck on yellow.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Guess who Israeli President Shimon Peres met with the other day.
The answer is Republican vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin.
They met in New York City at one of the many events that were held in conjunction with the General Assembly of the United Nations.
Both Palin and John McCain were there.

There is little doubt that Palin is using this United Nations opportunity to bolster her foreign policy resume.
But honestly, knowing someone, shaking their hands and saying hello is not experience.
I was happy to see that she did not need a score card to keep track of all the foreigners she was meeting.

The Palin/Peres meet was not official.
They were both at an event organized by Bill Clinton and Peres was there to speak.
Did you get that - Sarah Palin was an invited guest at an event hosted by Bill Clinton.
And on Wednesday when Clinton was interviewed by Larry King he had nothing but good things to say about John McCain.

Somebody is maturing.

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Ahmadinejad on NPR
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad has hit the American airwaves.
He aims to convince the American public that he is neither an ogre nor a thug. He wants to explain his stance on various issues.

NPR asked Ahmadinejad why the world is against him.
Ahmadinejad asked the interviewer about what world are you speaking? Are you speaking about the 118 members of the Non-Aligned Pact or about the 57 members of the Organization of Islamic States?

The answer is obvious.
Ahmadinejad is asserting that the vast majority of the world rejects US control and US priorities. He is saying that United States support for Israel has destroyed the reputation of the US around the world.
In his own words: "Is the problem of the U.S. government the Zionist regime?"
"I believe the extremity to which the U.S. government has gone to extend support to the Zionist regime has caused the U.S. government problems around the world."

Ahmadinejad is so wrong.
The same nations that hate Israel hate Americans and for the same reasons.
It might be worth his while to think about that.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It was a brilliant move.

John McCain has called off the campaign for a few days,
He has suggested pushing off the first debate between presidential hopefuls.
McCain is saying that both he and Barack Obama should go to Washington, DC and try to reach across the aisle to fix the economic problems confronting the United States.

Obama is in a lose-lose situation.
If he does not accept it will seem that the Democrats care more about the campaign than about helping the American people.

But let's be clear about this:
The candidates cannot and will not solve the problems.
This is not a quick fix situation and neither candidate has a real solution.

I give McCain an A for effort in showing support for the American people.
And I give him an A+ for finally demonstrating his political savvy.

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Syria Masses Troops Near Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has just increased their military presence on the border with Lebanon. 8000 Syrian special forces have been added to the area near Abboudieh.

Lebanon is very worried.
Lebanon has gone on alert.

What is at issue here?
The biggest issue is what Syria wants to achieve with this military buildup.
Syria asserts that they are just cracking down on smugglers.
I don't buy it.
While it is true that there is some serious smuggling that takes place over the Lebanese - Syrian border one hardly needs special forces to enforce a crack down.

Syria is out to frighten.
Syria is out to frighten Lebanese leaders and the Lebanese people.
Syria wants Lebanon to remember who the real boss of the region is.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Sarah Palin never got to deliver her speech at the Anti-Ahmadinejad Rally that was held outside the United Nations yesterday.
I read the transcript, it was an excellent speech.

This is probably the most important section of the speech:
"Ahmadinejad denies that the Holocaust ever took place. He dreams of being an agent in a "Final Solution" - the elimination of the Jewish people. He has called Israel a "stinking corpse" that is "on its way to annihilation."

Elie Wiesel did deliver his speech to the large crowd.
In his speech, Elie Wiesel told Ahmadinejad to go back home.
He spoke to Ahmadinejad and said the United Nations is not the place for you.

Ahmadinejad heard neither the Wiesel speech nor the Palin speech.
That doesn't matter, and like many other, he will read the transcripts.
What matters is that the message is getting out.

The message is that Ahmadinejad is a polarizing agent.
The message is that Iran is a force that polarizes.
Even Iranians, leaders and the people, are starting to speak about just how polarizing Ahmadinejad really is.

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Palestinian Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian situation is ripe for a civil war.

The rhetoric is ratcheting up higher and higher.
Armed tensions are becoming more and more frequent.
Hamas is becoming more powerful in Gaza and the West Bank
The Palestinian Authority is realizing that the only way to control Hamas is through an armed re-taking of Gaza.

Last summer Hamas threw Fatah out of Gaza.
Fatah wants to do the same to Hamas.
If Fatah actually does attempt to oust Hamas from Gaza it will cost them many lives.
It will be the most significant step Palestinians have taken to date to actually facilitate a state.

But as Israeli statesman Abba Eban frequently said: "The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Today is Anti-Ahmadinejad day.
Today is the day thousands of Americans will collect in the streets surrounding the United Nations to voice outrage at Ahmadinejad and at his policies.
It's the right thing to do.

These rallies work.
These rallies have an impact.
They do not change Ahmadinejad, but they do let our leaders know how concerned we are about Iran.
They let other countries know that there is good and there is bad and there are people who are willing to stand up against bad.

Most importantly, these rallies say that we care.
We care enough to take a stand against thugs and against evil leaders.
We stand together in order to make a difference.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 21, 20008

I've Been Thinking:

The situation in Iraq is complicated.
It just became more complicated.

The United States is building a democracy in Iraq.
And now this:
Last week a member of Iraq's parliament named Mithal al Alusi was arrested.
Al Alusi was arrested as he returned from a Terrorism Conference in Israel.
It was the 4th year al Alusi had attended the Conference. But this year he was arrested, charged under a law enacted by Saddam Hussein law in 1969.
The law falls under the category of treason, of dealing with Israeli agents.

Important questions arise:
If the United States is building a democracy in Iraq, how can the emerging democracy (Iraq) or its sponsor (the United States) tolerate such blatantly
anti-Israel behavior?
How can the United States condone this skewed sense of justice? An Iraqi member of government, concerned with fighting the war against terror is charged under the very law that was created by a despotic ruler in order to intimidate and murder innocent Iraqi citizens.

This is an issue that must be confronted.
It falls to the candidates to consider this issue now.
It remains for the next president of the United States to rectify the situation.

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A Psychological Boost For Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran finished an air force drill on Friday.
The exercise began on Monday.
The objective was to test the readiness of the Iranian air force and the capabilities of Iranian land to air systems.

The main reason for the drill was internal Iranian and inner Muslim propaganda.
Secondary was the threat of an upcoming attack from the United States and or from Israel.
Iran wanted to show their own soldiers and people that they are prepared.

Along the way, they also gave everyone else who was watching a peek at some of the weapons that they have and some of the means that they will use to stop an attack.
But that was not the prime objective.
This was an exercise to shore up the Iranian people and the army.
It was meant to be a psychological boost, to lift the people to the heights of the rhetoric they are being bombarded with from their leaders.

My assessment:
Iran has decent defense systems, but should it ever come to that, those systems can and will be breached by Israel.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:
The political race is heating.
As you follow the money trail you can begin to see just how hot it is.

The Obama campaign has decided to invest $39 million in ads in Florida.
They are vying for the 27 electoral votes Florida holds.

There are about 1 1/2 million voters in Florida.
Many of them are traditional Democratic voters, blacks, Jews and Hispanics.
But over the past few weeks McCain has picked up 5% - 7% of the vote and turned Florida from a Democrat leaning state to a Republican leaning state.

If Obama can get back the 27 votes of Florida then his money was well spent.
Florida can clinch the election for Barack Obama.

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Tutu is Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a Noble Prize recipient, held gave a press conference yesterday.

Pay attention to what he said:
"I think the West, quite rightly, is feeling contrite, penitent for its awful connivance with the Holocaust."
"Now when you are contrite, when you are penitent, you are then ready to make amends, and we call that penance. The West is penitent, the penance is being paid by the Palestinians."
And then Tutu said that the world does not criticize Israel. "That silence begets complicity."

Tutu's message is clear, it is also wrong.
Tutu lifted a page from the Yasser Arafat handbook of historical injustice.
I do not think there is a more criticized country in the world than Israel. Just count the number of UN proposals and resolutions and discussions about Israel.

The way to help the Palestinians is to help them realize the importance of signing a peace treaty with Israel.
The very first step in the process is clamping down on Hamas and other terrorist groups.
Desmond Tutu is way off base here.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

And now the anti-Ahmadinejad rally will go on not only without Hillary Clinton, but also without Sarah Palin.

According to sources, the Obama campaign took exception to the fact that Sarah Palin would be addressing the rally.
They applied significant pressure on the Conference of Presidents, the organizers of the rally, who, after careful consideration chose to un-invite the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin.

It's hard to get a straight story from the people involved in this non-partisan turned very partisan and political and now very un-PC event.
The way I piece it together Palin's presence at an anti-Ahmadinejad event was an enormous threat to the Democratic party and the Democratic candidates.
It was so enormous a threat that tremendous pressure was applied to nix her.

As opposed to getting rid of everyone, everyone should have stood together, shoulder to shoulder, united against Ahmadinejad.

What a botched opportunity.
What misplaced priorities.
What a sad commentary on American life.

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Kadima and Livni
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Congratulations to Tzipi Livni, winner of the Kadima party primaries in Israel.

Livni is now in line to become the next prime minister of Israel.

On Sunday Ehud Olmert will resign as will his entire government.
President Shimon Peres will then interview all the political parties in Israel and ask the most capable party to create a coalition of over 60 Knesset members.
That party will in all probability be Kadima.
Livni will have 42 days to put together a government, it will probably be a coalition government.

Several important observations:
Livni is a very capable woman.
Livni is new on the scene but she has experience in politics and foreign policy.
Livni is weakest on security issues.
The PA was pleased that Livni defeated her rival, Shaul Mofaz.
So is much of the Arab world.
The Arab world considers Mofaz to be more a hawk that Livni.

Be careful what you wish for.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton shot herself in the foot (yes, that is a hunting metaphor).
Clinton has cancelled an appearance at an anti-Ahmadinejad protest at the UN on Tuesday.
Clinton's staff said that the reason for the cancellation is that Sarah Palin is going to be at the event.
Clinton's said that now it has become a partisan event.

There is a pretty simple calculus here:
You are either in the camp against Ahmadinejad or you are in the wrong camp.

The Jewish community, especially the New York Jewish community, is particularly upset by Clinton's decision.
Traditionally, Jews vote Democratic.
But traditions change and mistakes count - literally and figuratively.
New York is fast becoming a battleground state.
Among New York women only 2% separates the parties right now, among general voters the separation is only 5%.
Only a few months ago, in June, there was an 18% Democratic margin.

Clinton has made a colossal blunder.
Not just for herself, but for Democrats.
Nor just for Jews, but for all people of conscience.
Not just for New York, but for the country.
At issue is the state of American priorities and values.
Everyone in the free world should be concerned about Ahmadinejad.
Everyone, especially high ranking politicians and presidential candidates.

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Assad is Taking Back Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian leadership has begun a strategic move to try to retake domestic control.

Over the past few years Iran has insinuated itself into much of the daily power of Syria. Iran often uses proxies to accomplish their tasks but in Syria they have had alot of direct involvement, too.

But Syrian leader Bashar Assad is starting to feel that far too much power is falling under the control of Iran.
Bashar Assad cannot speak about this to Iran, nor can he expel Iran entirely.
Bashar Assad is too dependent on Iran.

The one way Assad has to strike out at Iran is through the proxies.
The proxies are small and weak and operate purely at the blessing of Assad. Now Assad wants them muted.
The best example of exerting his power over a proxy is to choose Hamas.

A few days ago Hisham Labadani, the secretary to Khallad Mashaal the head of the Hamas, was publicly executed.
This is no small event, it sent shock waves throughout the entire region.
Hitting such a public Hamas leader in broad daylight and dragging him from his car in a city square was a strong message.
There have been rumors that Khallad Mashaal and Hamas leaders were preparing to relocate to Sudan.
This may be Assad's way of nudging or pushing Hamas to get them out.

Assad is taking back Syria.
The process will be slow and I would not get too excited about change or a major Syrian shift away from Iran just yet, but this is definitely a significant step toward Syrian independence.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The price of oil dropped to $95 a barrel yesterday.
That's news - but not the news we have been reading about in papers and hearing on TV and radio.
That's news that the candidates should be capitalizing on, they should be explaining the why and how of dropping oil prices.

Dropping oil prices is the most significant, immediate, tangible issue confronting voters, yet the significance of this drop seems to be eluding both candidates.
The price of oil has dropped 35% since its peak just a few weeks ago in July when it nearly hit $150.
The price of oil has dropped despite hurricane IKE which threatened to devastate Gulf oil production.

This is nothing short of enormous.
Candidates, speak out.

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US Give Israel New Bunker Busters
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

For weeks the rumors out of Washington, DC were that Israel would not get the bunker blaster bombs.

The rumors were that the people advising the Administration did not think that Iran was enough of a threat to warrant the bombs.
The rumors were wrong.
On Friday the Administration signed off on a deal where Israel will get 1,000 more GPU 30 bunker blaster bombs.

GPU stands for Guided Bomb Units. They are GPS guided and have a 50% chance of hitting their mark at 5-8 yards from the target. Also in the package are 28,000 LAW (Light Anti Tank Weapons) missiles.

This deal is very important especially as Russia continues its aid to Iran.
Israel needs to improve its arsenal.
If there is any chance of checking Iran in their race for nuclear weapons, this is it.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Watching the polls can make you dizzy.
The finish line is far away and the polls can only tell us so much this far in advance.

National results are almost irrelevant, that is important point to remember.
The important polls are for the electoral college.

Over the past 5 days the polls are telling us that McCain has picked up 50 electoral votes while Obama has lost 10 essential electoral votes.
As of yesterday the electoral votes placed McCain at 227, Obama at 207.

According to the polls, a huge swing took place over the weekend.
Essential states that were thought a toss up are now leaning towards McCain.
Indiana with 7votes and Florida with 27votes are the key states.
There are more states to come.

Remember, forget the national polls.
Concentrate on the electoral polls.
That's the way to get a handle on what's happening.

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Internal Conflict in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami gave a speech in Western Iran yesterday during which he aggressively criticized the Ahmadinejad regime.
Khatami led Iran from 1997 to 2005.
The next election in Iran is scheduled for June 12, 2009.

This attack by Khatami was the beginning of a reformer front to wrestle the leadership away from the Ahmadinejad camp.
Khatami said that Iran is unnecessarily in danger because of the aggressive speechifying by Ahmadinejad.
Khatami asserted that the published inflation rate of 26.9 percent is inaccurate and falls far under rates real inflation numbers.

Reformers in Iran want change.
Reformers in Iran do not want a liberal democracy or love fest with the West.
Reformers in Iran do not want the kind of change that the West wants.
Reformers in Iran want Ahmadinejad out and a stable economy in.
That is the platform Reformers used to make made headway in the recent parliamentary elections. And that is their tact now.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There is something disingenuous about political ads.

Many ads push the boundaries between falsities and truth, but that is politics and such are national elections and there is no way to really change that.

The most disturbing issue for me is exploitation. One candidate's ads exploit the other candidate's ads and all the ads are exploited by the media. No one, especially the media, take into account that candidates are politicians and politicians are people and people change their minds.

Politicians grow and learn and actually do take new stands.
While it is not a lie to reflect on the earlier stand of a politician/candidate, neither is it the complete truth if that person has taken a new stand.
And change, as we are reminded, is not a bad thing.

The hope is that as a politician becomes more mature and approaches closer to power, their perspective will change. The hope is that a candidate's point of view will become more responsible. The hope is that as a nominee gets closer and closer to the presidency and is exposed to more nuanced and deeper analysts and advisers their own analysis will come into sharper focus.

Bottom line is that the growth is good, it is part of the maturation process.
Political ads, however, are stuck in infancy.

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Russian Navy Head Meets Syrian Head
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia is at it again.
Russia will continue to do whatever it wants unless the Russians are directly confronted by a superior force.
Russia reacts to actions not just words.
I am not suggesting war or attacks, I am suggesting moves and counter moves.

According to a report in the Russian news agency Interfax, the head of the Russian Navy, Admiral Vladimir Vissotski, met with Syrian General Taleb al-Barri in Russia. The discussion centered upon mutual naval cooperation between the Syrians and the Russians.

The Russians are playing games.
The Russians are pushing buttons.
The United States has yet to issue a clear and real response.

Think of it as a cross between a game of Chess and a game of Risk.
Russia is totally out matching the United States.
The United States has no counter moves against Russia.
Unfortunately, it looks like the West is playing checkers again.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Convention bounce in the polls is beginning to taper off.
Now it looks as if the Republicans are slightly on top.

Several weeks ago Democratic strategists would never have thought it possible. Democratic forecasters never thought that the Republicans would out-bounce them.
Democratic forecasters could not foresee a situation whereby the majority of US voters would find a divorced 72 year old Republican appealing.
Surprise, surprise, the strategists were wrong.

Now the Democrats will intensify their message.
Democratic ad campaigns will become more vicious and biting.
The polls might flip again in the next 7 weeks.
But it will be tight.

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US Consul Puts Foot in Mouth
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The US Consul General in Jerusalem answers directly to the Secretary of State. Even though the US Ambassador to Israel is posted in Tel Aviv, the position of Consul General is like that of an Ambassador.

Yesterday John Walles, the United States Consul General in Jerusalem, did what diplomats call putting your foot in your mouth.
Or maybe it was intentional and planned.

In an interview with the Palestinian newspaper Al Ayam, Walles said that in a deal spearheaded by the United States, in conjunction with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, it was agreed upon to give East Jerusalem to the Palestinians. He said that the news should be made public and that, in essence, it was a done deal.
Even if it is a done deal, Al Ayam is hardly the forum to make the announcement.

The Israelis saw red.
They reacted by saying that Jerusalem is not even on the table. And when it is in the table, there will be a special committee to deal with it.

Walles was creating a new status quo for the Palestinians.
The Consul General was most certainly acting on the advice of Washington, he is not a news making type person and it is not a news making type position.
What it was, was certainly not very diplomatic and as the kids say, "not nice!"

Now Israel and the US have an insurmountable problem.
How do you create incentives for Palestinian leadership to tow any line once they know that under any and all circumstances Jerusalem will be delivered?

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

All week the price per barrel of oil has flirted around $100.
Sometimes it was a little more, sometimes a little less.
It was one of those flirtations that makes me happy inside.

In July the price of a barrel of oil was $147.
Now, two months later, oil has dropped 30%.
My question is:
Where are the candidates on this?
Where is the media on this?
This is real news.

The price of oil spoiled the summer for most American families.
The situation even spawned a new word: stay-cation.
We are starting to see some relief at the pump, but have yet to see other prices come down.

The candidates should be talking about the important need to keep prices down by continuing to conserve.
Because we used less, the supply went up, the demand went down and prices dropped.
The high price of oil killed the demand for gas, it's as simple as that.
The candidates should be congratulating Americans for a job well done.

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PA Cracks Down on Hamas And?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli security heads are impressed.
According to reports given to the Israeli Cabinet, the heads of Israeli security are impressed by the progress the Palestinian Authority is making in cracking down on Hamas in the West Bank.

Yuval Diskin, head of the Shin Bet which is Israel's equivalent to the FBI, reported marked improvements in and optimism for the PA's operations and their confrontations with Hamas. Diskin make note of the fact that major Hamas charitable agencies and organizations, really fronts for terrorist activities, have been closed down.

Hamas uses cultural and educational centers as a way to funnel funds and plan and organize attacks against Israel and other Palestinians. Right now the PA is deeply concerned that Hamas is plotting to overtake the West Bank like they did in Gaza. That concern in well placed.

At the same time, Tuesday night, in Gaza, Hamas apprehended two members of Fatah employed as part of Abbas' presidential guard who were carrying huge amounts of explosives on their way to attack Israel.

Hamas is cracking down and the Palestinian Authority is cracking down.
Each in their own way.
Each to advance their own needs and best interests.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Senator Joe Lieberman skipped yesterday's Democratic Leaders Caucus in DC. Odds are that he will also miss the next few sessions, at least until the presidential elections in November.

In the eyes of many former colleagues, Lieberman has gone too far.
By addressing the Republican National Convention last week this former Democrat-turned-Independent crossed the line in the eyes of many members of his former party.

The truth, however, is that those same people had already abandoned Lieberman during his senatorial bid. They had sided with another Democrat forcing Lieberman to run for and win the state election as an Independent running against both a Democrat and a Republican.

Joe Lieberman crossed the aisle and embraced John McCain because Lieberman sees a staunch contrast between Obama and McCain. And Joe Lieberman is not afraid to stand alongside the man he believes will be the best president for the United States of America.

It appears that no one else in the Democratic Caucus has the backbone of Senator Joe Lieberman.

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Iran Russia: Nukes On Line
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia's Atomic energy agency Atomstroiexport announced yesterday that Busher, the nuclear plant they are building for Iran, will open by year's end.
Busher is a 1000 megawatt light water nuclear power plant.

In a press announcement Russian head Leonid Reznikov said that the plant will be "irreversible" by the end of the year,
Yesterday I saw some of the newest pictures, courtesy of the Russians.
The plant is a modern, up-to-date, sophisticated technical facility.
In exchange for building the plant the Russians have received over a billion dollars from the Iranians.

Once the Busher plant is complete the many other nuclear power plants in Iran will all fall in line, all that remain are a few finishing touches.
The Iranians have been hesitant to finish work on other projects for fear of an attack by Israel or other Western countries.
An attack is less likely on Busher because the Russian are on site.

The situation is getting more and more interesting.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 9, 2008

I'm Predicting:

Anyone waiting for a Clinton versus Palin series of attacks is, I think, off base.

According to his blog in the New Republic, Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s former and most influential adviser, agrees with me, even if not for the same reasons.

It does Clinton no good to confront Palin.
# 1: Palin uses Clinton as a political role model and all 40 million people who heard the Republican vice presidential nominee speak at the Convention remember that.
# 2: It does not serve well for Clinton in her position as a future candidate to attack Sarah Palin on anything other than policy. And when it comes to policy issues, Clinton can make her point and never mention Palin.

Clinton will stay on point where ever she is, simply addressing Democratic versus Republican issues.
Entering a cat fight with Sarah Palin will only make Hillary Clinton look bad and Hillary Clinton is too smart to be lured into that trap by the Obama campaign.

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China & Iran Launch Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

China, Iran and Thailand just launched a joint satellite using a Chinese rocket.

The official report is that the satellite is a telecommunications satellite.
All three countries they say suffer from natural disasters and the images sent from the satellite will help them confront and assist in saving people.

Iran and China are working closely on this and other projects. Ahmadinejad visited China over the weekend and confirmed that there is a very close relationship between Iran and China. He met with Chinese president Hu Jintau and he was there for the opening of the Paralympics.

China and Iran hope to build better relations.
China and Iran intend to oust the United States and the West from their long held positions as world leaders in astrotechnology.
Thailand is just along for the ride.

Whoever controls space will control the much of the earth.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Meet The Press on Sunday morning, Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden taunted Republican Vice Presidential candidate Governor Sarah Palin.

He said he wants to know her policies and perspectives.
He said he thinks she will be a formidable debater and looks forward to the vice presidential debate at Wash U in St. Louis on October 2nd.
Debates will not prove to be Biden strong points.

In a debate, brevity is crucial.
Having watched Biden for years and Palin for a little more than a week I will predict that Palin will stay on point and that Biden will ramble.

Biden is a very capable speaker but never when there is stop watch.
In the Senate he always runs over time and has to be asked to stop before reaching a conclusion. Joe Biden has charisma and experience and presence and a poor sense of time.

Palin says what she has to say and crinkles her nose when making an important point. Sarah Palin has natural charm and presence and is being coached in the basics of media presentation and performance.

The candidates have a month to hone their skills and improve their weak spots.
I, too, am looking forward to the October 2nd debate.
I will be looking at style, substance and structure in this debate.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Democrats have womped the Republicans in voter registration since 2006. That small and overlooked issue may be the secret to a Democratic victory in November.

Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 28 states to their rolls. Republicans seem to have lost 344, 000 voters in those same states.

Those numbers show only a small part of the story, it is the state by state numbers that are truly baffling.
In Pennsylvania, which is a real battle ground state, Democrats have added 375,000 new voters compared to117,000 new Republican voters.
In North Carolina, Democrats added 167,000 to the measly Republican 36,000.

According to The Associated Press there are 42 million registered Democrats in the United States compared to 31 million registered Republicans.

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Israel Gave Weapons to PA
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israel quietly transferred 1,000 rifles with 10,000 rounds of ammunition to the Palestinians last week.
The transfer was conducted via Jordan so that the entire arrangement would be easier and quieter and so that no questions would be asked.

The Israelis hope to bolster Abbas, but these moves can backfire.
That's what happened in 1990 when the weapons that Israel transferred to the Palestinians were used by the Palestinians to turn on Israel.

Tensions seem to be on the rise with Israel and Abbas.
And yet, Israel continues to make concessions.
Maybe Israeli leadership sees something I do not see.
Maybe they see a light at the end of the tunnel.
I see a longer tunnel.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad gave an interview to the Japanese press.
The Iranian leader said he looks forward to "the" new US president who will have an entirely new policy toward Iran.

Ahmadinejad offered serious advise to the US presidential candidates.
The Iranian leader told them to focus on domestic problems and to stop meddling in international affairs where they do not belong.

Ahmadinejad said he looks forward to a new relationship with the United States.
The Iranian leader has not been paying careful enough attention to US politics.

Obama's foreign policy team does not advocate becoming friends with Iran. Obama's team only advocates talking with you enemies.
Even if Obama does become the next US president the Iranian president will be in for a serious reality jolt.

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Terror Plot Against El Al
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Not long ago Israel sounded an alert:
Hezbollah was targeting Israelis and Israeli targets around the world.

Precautions were taken.
And several terror attacks were aborted and terror cells were discovered.

The most recently aborted Hezbollah-led terrorist attack against Israelis was this week, in Toronto Canada.
A plot to attack El Al crew members was uncovered.
The plan was to kidnap the crew members staying at the Sheraton Centre Hotel in downtown Toronto.
After the plot was detected authorities alerted El Al crews and other Israelis and advised altering their routines and routes.
The plotters were arrested.

Expect more. Hezbollah will try and try again.
Hezbollah has promised retaliation for the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh, the chief of Hezbollah operations who was blown up in a car bomb in Damascus this past February.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Both the democratic presidential candidate and the democratic vice presidential candidate have been sending out seriously conflicting messages on the question of AIPAC.

The candidates responded to a question about the inconsistency of the Obama statements during the AIPAC conference and a question about his qualifications which was asked after the event.

Joe Biden was angry, he said that AIPAC does not represent either America or Israel and that there are broader voices in American Jewry than AIPAC.

Yesterday an Obama spokesman said that Barack Obama has a very good relationship with AIPAC and has had this relationship for a very long time.

Stay on point, gentlemen, stay on point.

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PA TV Quiz-- Shocking
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has crossed the limits with their government sponsored, educational TV programming.

Palestinian Media Watch has just released the video of a quiz show for Palestinian children centering on Palestinian geography.
The assumption on which each and every question is based is that Israel does not exist.
Poof, Israel has just gone and disappeared off the face of the map, in this case, literally.

This is not happening on Hamas TV.
This is happening on the established Palestinian Authority TV station which is supervised and sponsored by Abbas, the Palestinian leader now engaged in peace negotiations with Israel that are sponsored by the United States.

The premise of the show is that Palestine controls the entire land where Israel now stands.
Sample question # 1: Name 3 Palestinian ports.
Answer: Haifa, Ashdod and Gaza. And then the host added Ashkelon and Eilat.

Sample question # 2: What is the size of Palestine.
Answer: 27000 square kilometers. But the truth is that the West Bank and Gaza are only 6220 square kilometers.

It goes on and on. Only one conclusion can be drawn.
The educational message of liberal Palestinian leadership is similar, almost identical, to that of extremist leaders.
The only issue dividing the groups is the question of whether or not to negotiate with Israel in order to achieve the ultimate goal of destroying Israel.
That question is not on the quiz show. Not yet.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

One of the battle ground states for the US presidency will once again be Florida.
There is little doubt about that.

It will be a tough fight.
It will be Joe vs Joe for the elderly Floridian Jewish vote.

When Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Joe Biden went stumping in a Jewish old age home he made it clear to the residents that he and Barack Obama share the same stance about Israel.

When Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain's very good friend Joe Lieberman stumps in Florida, a state he has visited often and will continue to visit again and again, he will make the claim.

At this stage I am not taking bets on who will win Florida.
But I am willing to bet that whichever one of these two senators visits Florida more often will win over the Sunshine State for their candidate.

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Enlgand Arrests Terror Cell
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Terrorists beware.
The arrest in England of a fifth person in connection with the plot to assassinate sitting Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former Prime Minister Tony Blair is essential in showing terrorists that they are being watched and tracked.

The plot came to light from a website that fell under the rubric of al Qaeda in England.
The site propounded extreme ideas and violence.
The site demanded that England withdraw its forces from Iraq.
British police insist publicly that there was no active plot.
Perhaps, but the plan was certainly in the organizational stages.

It is unlikely that these men would have been successful.
But that doesn't matter.
What matters is that other terrorists know that the police are vigilant and that the new anti-terror laws are on the side of the state and against the suspects.
It is essential that active and potential terrorists know that plotting attacks and talking about assassinating a prime minister, even in cyberspace, is illegal.

The war against terror is gaining ground - on land and in cyber space.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Palin announcement was short and to the point.
The Palin announcement was a political bombshell.
Bristol Palin, 17 years old daughter and 5 months pregnant by her boyfriend Levi, intends to marry Levi and bring the baby to full term.

Barack Obama reacted politically, politely and debonairly.
He said leave the candidate's family alone, my mother was only 18 when I was born.
But the problem is bigger than that.
The problem is that teenage pregnancy is a very serious campaign issue.
This pregnancy is going to be the backdrop of almost every discussion on family values, on parental influence and on education. It cannot not be.

Who vetted Palin?
How could they not see this on the horizon - didn't anyone talk to the kids' friends?
For days now the web has been filled with rumors that the youngest child of the Palin's was really the child of their daughter. Some of the discussions date back to before the announcement of the Republican vice presidential candidate. The material was there to be raised and yet, it was not.

This is a real blunder.
Just remember, Sarah Palin has not yet been officially nominated.

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Kissinger's Secrets
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

New papers and documents have just come to light that are damning to US foreign policy under the leadership of then National Security Advisor, the venerable Henry Kissinger.

According to these papers Kissinger sent CIA representative Robert Ames into meetings with Fatah murderers. Specifically, into meetings with Ali Hassan Salameh, head of Black September.
During those meetings Salameh made it very clear to Ames that he was responsible for the murder of US diplomats in Khartoum.
A decade later, in 1983, Ames himself was murdered in a terror attack.

Kissinger wanted Ames to dialogue with Arafat's people in order to get information about potential attacks against Americans. One piece of information these discussions did reveal was Arafat's intention to topple Jordan's King Hussein.

The most important and very damning piece of information in the newly released papers is a telegram dated July 5, 1973 sent to National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger from CIA Chief Richard Helms revealing that the Jordanians had uncovered plans that Syria planned on attacking Israel and coordinating the attack with Egypt and Iraq.

Now we know that Henry Kissinger told the CIA to continue contacts with Arafat's PLO people before the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
He had them talking even after Arafat ordered the kidnapping and murder of the American ambassador and his deputy in Sudan.

And now Kissinger is selling his services to China.
World, beware.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

National political conventions are still big, very big.
38.4 million people watched Barack Obama's acceptance speech - that number is mind boggling.

More Americans tuned in to watch the final night of the Democratic National Convention than the 34.2 million who watched the opening of the Beijing Olympics.
More Americans tuned in to watch the final night of the Democratic National Convention than watched the finals of American Idol.
Only four Super Bowl games in history have hit the 40 million mark.
Four years ago only about half as many people, 20 million, tuned in to watch John Kerry give his acceptance speech.
Ten commercial stations carried the speech, so did PBS but they did not pay Neilson to gather their numbers which could mean that 40 million Americans actually tuned in.

There will be no fair way to compare the numbers watching the Republican National Convention with those who watched the Democratic Convention, nature has other plans.
But one thing is certain, even in the age of You Tube, Americans are still interested enough to tune in for live coverage of national politics.
Surprised me.

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Russia and Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

When it came to the Russian invasion of Georgia, most international analysts and commentators got it wrong.
Most all of them have focused on Russia's desire for an imminent return of the Cold War.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Russia cannot and does not want a return of the Cold War.
Russia wants to maintain their role as world leader.
It is other countries that yearn for the return of the Cold War.
It is other countries that are vying for a place of world dominance and the opportunity to challenge US hegemony.

Syria's total failure to see the reality of Russia's behavior was the greatest example of the fallout from this erroneous analysis.
The advisors to Syria's president Bashar Assad just assumed that the commentators were correct and that the Russians were off to remake their empire. That explains why Assad proposed all of those silly offers to Moscow.

Moscow does not need or want a base in Syria.
Moscow does not want to reestablish a major Middle East port in Tartus, Syria or anywhere.
Moscow wants respect.
Moscow wants that respect from the groups and the regions they deem to be peons, inferiors, the folk who up until a few years ago quaked at the very mention of Moscow.

That's what Russia wants.
What Russia wants is a far cry from what Russia has.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In some ways selecting Sara Palin is a case of John McCain out Obama-ing Barack Obama.
The Republican vice presidential nominee is even younger, cuter and less experienced than Barack Obama.

The timing of the announcement was obvious and effective.
Labor Day week-end is as dead a news period as are Thanksgiving week-end and Christmas.

If all the Republicans wanted to accomplish was to steal the post convention thunder from the Democrats - it was a good choice.
But we all know that is not the ultimate goal of the Republican party.
And that is why the greater wisdom of this decision evades me.

She looks good and she sounds good.
And in the world of US politics, an attractive candidate is easy to vote for.
Sarah Palin will draw votes for the Republican presidential candidate, but for all the wrong reasons.

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Russia in Georgia
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The dust has settled and we are able to gauge the true result of Russia's invasion into Georgia.
In general, the world has condemned the invasion.
Russia is now beginning to feel the impact of its own actions - an overreaction and an exaggerated aggression in Georgia.

Most commentators have focused on Russia's desire to return to the era of the Cold War as a way of explaining the behavior of the aggressive Russians.
They are so wrong.

Russia is dependent on the world for its economy.
Russia needs the world's investments.
Over the past few weeks $12 billion worth of investment has been pulled out of Russia and that smarts.
The Russian Stock Exchange (RTS) has plummeted 32% and there is very little thought that it will bounce back and little hope that these losses will be regained in the near future.
Foreign investors are wary of investing in Russia.

The private economic pain that Russia is suffering from their invasion far outstrips any powerless diplomatic condemnations than any other country can heap on them.
Russia is now, literally, out in the cold - and it is of their own doing.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Democratic National Convention in Denver was an enormous success for the Democratic Party.
It was an extravaganza.
Moving the event to the outdoor stadium was brilliant.
That move alone accomplished everything the Democrats wanted.

The organizers wanted to show openness, excitement, creativity.
The organizers wanted to create a cross between the good old fashioned political conventions of yesteryear and the spirit of a modern day major league sports event with the panache of a Hollywood bash.
And then they threw in a bit of the Greek temple look for good measure - just a bit over the top, but it worked.

The question of the moment is this:
Will anyone outside the stadium feel the energy?
Did the spectacle transcend the tube?
The hardest part about these conventions is the translation.
How do you carry over the enthusiasm of the delegates and the emotional wallop of the entertainers to the undecided voters of America watching from their homes?

Now we will see if the Democratic Convention was as successful with the voters as it was for the planners.
Now we wait for the polls, now we watch for that famous bump in the polls.

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Rice in Jerusalem Again #2
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Condi Rice finished her second day in Jerusalem.
Her most significant meeting was with Minister of Transportation Shaul Mofaz.

They did not talk about the state of mass transit.
Mofaz is a former chief of staff, a former defense minister and now a candidate for leader of the Kadima party.

Rice and Mofaz spoke about Iran and about imposing new sanctions upon Iran. Mofaz stated his concerns clearly.
Because of America's stance during the Georgia - Russian conflict he is concerned that Russia may not support an American proposal in the Security Council against Iran.

If that happens it would be disastrous.
It would be giving carte blanche to the Iranians to move ahead unchecked.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

We saw a glimpse of him as he walked into the convention hall.
But the name Jimmy Carter is no where to be found on the roster of Democratic Convention speakers or presenters.

He may have written several best selling books, but don't expect to see too much of this former president.

Jimmy Carter will be kept far away from the limelight for several good reasons.
Carter is perceived by Americans to be out of sync with the mainstream.
Carter has changed his tune now, but he has been seriously critical of Obama.
Carter symbolizes failure.
Carter symbolizes past losses for the Democratic party, not hope for the future and dreams of victory.

He may be a former president but right now, Jimmy Carter is persona non grata.

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Rice In Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the US Secretary of State arrived in Jerusalem.
This officially puts the total number of times she has made a trip to the Region --- at countless.

Rice's mission is to urge on Israelis and Palestinians towards a real agreement.
To her chagrin, expectations are pretty low.
There is so much going on in Israel right now, not the least of which is a lame duck prime minister, that an agreement is not top of the totem pole.
The secretary of state understands. As she put it: "but it is always a complicated time out here."

The Israelis are just being polite.
There is no possibility of a US brokered agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
The Israelis are also being prudent.
Not wanting to waste an important opportunity they drilled home their message about Iran. Defense minister Ehud Barak made it very clear that Israel will not accept a nuclear Iran.

Keep the pressure on Iran.
That will be Israel's continued refrain throughout this visit.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The big news will be yesterday's kick-off of the Democratic Convention and the Michelle Obama speech.
Neither was stellar and that's a shame.

What makes it even more of a shame is that the big news should be the comments made yesterday by the husband of Michelle Obama.
Barack Obama said that part of his Iran strategy "as president will be to tighten the screws on Iran diplomatically." And: "To get sanctions in place."
Obama continued to say that the US must act before "Israel feels that its back is up against the wall."
These hugely significant comments will be overshadowed by the superficial party in Denver.

Obama came away from his trip to Israel thinking that Israel is preparing to bomb Iran.
He is correct, the operative word being preparing..
Israel is making plans and those plans will be in place and ready when and if Iran reaches their point of no return.

But at this stage in his career Obama should be able to distinguish between developing defense scenarios and contingences and actual policy and planning.
I have not yet seen him develop that skill.

Israel is developing and thinking and training for the worst scenario but that does not mean that Israel is trigger happy.

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Ahmadinejad Will Lead Iran Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In Iran all elections are determined by the Supreme Leader.
In Iran the Ayatollah Khamenei determines who will lead.

There was no ambiguity in Iran yesterday about how the Ayatollah views Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader made a very public pronouncement. He said that Ahmadinejad was doing a wonderful job of leading Iran and advised him to continue leading as if there were four more years ahead - not as if he was leaving power at the end of this four year term.

This was such a ringing endorsement by the Supreme Leader that the people hoping to challenge Ahmadinejad were sent into a state of shock.
The forces organizing an alternative candidate were certain that the tone from the Leader would be more tepid allowing them to present a serious economic counter to Ahmadinejad much as they had done during the Iranian parliamentary elections.

No such luck.
Ahmadinejad will be around for the long run.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Obama has named a VP and the Democrats are going in Convention mode.
Expect to see a bump in the polls.
The polls will give Obama a boost.
The hope is that the boost will start a trend.

Why did Obama choose Biden?
Biden was not chosen because he can reach the working class or because ha has experience or because he knows foreign affairs.
Biden is a classic old school political campaigner.
Biden takes the message and repeats it and repeats it and repeats it.
Biden has accurately been called him an attack dog.
Biden will attack Republicans on relevant and on irrelevant issues.
Biden is good at calling in favors.

Expect that along the way the vice presidential candidate will make some serious gaffs opening himself and Obama and the campaign to criticism.
It is not in his control, it is just who Joe Biden is.
The question is:
Will Biden's attacks on McCain outweigh his terrible flubs?

I would say the answer is a clear no.
Why? Because Biden is so obviously establishment Washington.
The bumps Biden puts in the road to the White House will be more significant than the bump his name creates in the polls.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

And Joe Biden it is.

Biden is a safe choice.
Clearly, has loose lips and he admits it. But Biden also has gravitas and that is a quality Obama lacks and Obama needs.

Do not think for a second that this will be a team effort.
Obama is in charge and he needs a number two with a name and experience --- not a partner.
Obama's style of leadership does not lend itself to taking Biden seriously.
Biden will stand tall and to the side of the presidential candidate and be there to deflect some of the serious critique leveled at Obama regarding his inexperience.

But it will be Obama, by himself, who will have to convince the voter in Middle America that he has what it takes to lead America in prosperity and in crisis.
And that's why, bottom line, the choice of Joe Biden as vice president is about as significant as is the state of Delaware.

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Ghaddifi's Son
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Muammar Ghaddafi's son Saif al- Islam Ghaddafi has always been seen as successor to the dictator.

But yesterday in a televised speech from the southern Libyan city if Subha, the young Ghaddafi resigned form any current and future politics.
In his speech Ghadaffi, Jr. portrayed the Arab world as "a forest of dictatorships." He called for transformation.
This is significant, very significant.

The positive changes that have been taking place in Libya have mostly been attributed to young Ghaddafi's influence on his father and his pressure to open Libya to the West.

Considering that the United States just concluded an important settlement with Libya this resignation will send a shockwave throughout the Arab world.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Today the Democrats announce their candidate for vice president.

No one ever votes for a President because of the Vice President on the ticket.
I cannot stress that point often enough.
Only the party really cares about a VP.
And at this post-primary stage no candidate cares that much about a single state to choose a running mate based on geography.

What is important now is that the Democrats will get a bump in the polls when the vice presidential choice is announced.
And the Democrats will get a bump in the pools from their convention.

The Democrats are hoping to extend that bump by announcing the VP just before their convention.
It might backfire.
As it is conventions are generally tedious and except for that one or two exciting moments, which will be re-run again and again, they are more of a turn off than a draw.

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Russia & Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Bashar Assad's trip to Russia has created some international ripples.

Ripple # 1: Assad offered to let Russia establish a missile base in Syria in order to counter balance the gesture made by the Poles permitting US missile in Poland.

Ripple # 2: Syria intends to purchase more Russian-made, medium range, surface-to-air missiles, and new MIG fighter jets to use as protection from Israel.

Ripple # 3: Syria supported Russia against Georgia. The only other state that publicly supported Russia on this was Belarus.

Israel is watching this entire meeting and monitoring the results very carefully - but very quietly.
The United States could not keep quiet.
The US has said that Syria should not "meddle" in Russia/Georgia affairs.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The polls.
People speak of polls as if they are oracles that predict the future.

Yes, the gap between Obama and McCain in the polls is closing.
But there is still a degree of error of about 3%.
People always assume that the 3% brings the numbers closer together.
But in fact that 3% could just as readily move the numbers further apart.

That is why we must not only look at polls, we must also interpret trends.
Trends are just as important and revealing as poll numbers.
A trend that is moving slowly but significantly in one direction can mean more the results of poll.

To the casual observer it looks as if McCain is gaining in the polls-he is not.
The McCain polling numbers have stayed about the same these past four months, it is the Obama numbers that have fallen.

Sometimes, slow but steady really does win the race.

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Russia Points Finger At Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians are fuming.
A lot of their anger is directed at Israel.

The Russians held a press conference yesterday where they assert that 8 varieties of important military equipment were given to Georgia by Israel.
Now Russia intends to exact revenge.

Syrian President Bashar Assad will be in Moscow on Thursday.
Assad will get the Russian point of view.
The Russians will tell Assad what they think about Israel, about the role of Israel in the Region and about the Russia perception of Israel's strengths and weaknesses.
The Syrian leader will pay close attention to the Russian assessment.

My fear is that the Russians might not properly estimate Israel.
Russia may misrepresent Israel's strengths and weaknesses - not out of deliberate disinformation but because they are so outraged and angry right now that they will have blind spots when assessing Israel's capabilities.
That could lead to some very wrong and very dangerous conclusions.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Daniel B. Shapiro was just appointed the Jewish front man for Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

Shapiro has a very difficult yet simple job.
On the one hand Jews vote Democratic.
On the other hand Jews are not very trusting of Obama on Israel.

Shapiro has experience.
He was part of the National Security Council under Clinton. He advised Sandy Berger. He was a member of the staff of Lee Hamilton for the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. He was posted in the United Arab Emirates. He was an adviser to Diane Feinstein on foreign affairs and has been a member of the Council on Foreign Relations since 2004.

We'll see what happens.
I hope that past experience will help him advise properly today.

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Hamas in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Khaled Mashaal, the true leader of Hamas, is going to visit Jordan this week.

Until now Mashaal has not been permitted to even enter Jordan.
Now he has agreed to abide by the terms set down by the Jordanians.
One of those terms is the promise not to foment hatred against Abdullah, King of Jordan.

What does Mashaal get out of this visit?
Mashaal will have official meetings with government figures and with intelligence officials.

What do the Jordanians get out of this visit?
The Jordanians will have the opportunity to truly assess the vision, objectives and capabilities of Hamas in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Gaza and the West Bank.
That information is crucially important.
That information will not be easy to exact because Mashaal knows exactly what the Jordanians want.

Hamas does not operate like other organizations - that point must be made perfectly clear.
Hamas has no day-to-day plan and Hamas has no short term plan.
What Hamas does have is a long term objective.
Hamas has nothing in between.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

We are all caught up in Olympic fever.
But Condi Rice, speaking on a Sunday talk show, made one of the most naĂŻve statements ever to be spoken aloud by a United States secretary of state.

Condi Rice said she hopes that, in the near future, Saudi women will be able to compete in the Olympics.
We all would hope that would happen - but it cannot.

The Saudi royal family is in charge and Saudi women are prohibited from wearing anything approaching Western dress let alone athletic outfits.
Women in Saudi Arabia cannot drive without their husband alongside.
Women in Saudi Arabia cannot see a doctor without their husband's permission.

Forget about the amount of practice it would take to qualify.
Just think about how much time it would take for Saudi society to acculturate to the point that would even permit women to participate.
Just think about the soul searching and think about the reforms the Saudi ruling family would have to make.
Just think, Condi, think before you speak.

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Iran's Announcements
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran made 2 important announcements yesterday.

Announcement # 1:
They have new fighter planes that can fly 3000 kilometers.
The Iranians did not go into details.
We do not know what kind of planes they are or if the planes are outfitted with extra fuel tanks that dislodge when empty.
Any way you read it that is not good news for us.

Announcement # 2:
They have launched their own satellite.
It is not a spy satellite or a defense satellite, it is a satellite totally built by and launched by Iran.

In 2005 Iran launched a satellite using Russian technology and the satellite disappeared. Now they are doing it all themselves. That proves how far the Iranians have come when it comes to space technology.

It means that spy satellites and weapons satellites are right around the corner for Iran.
That is important.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Expect to see and hear rabbis at the Democratic National Convention.

Rabbi David Sapperstein, a reform rabbi from DC and head of the Reform Action Center which champions social action causes, will deliver the invocation.

Rabbi Mark Schneier, an orthodox rabbi from the Upper East Side of Manhattan and Westhampton who champions many causes including Muslim Jewish dialogues, will deliver a speech.

Rabbi Amy Schwartzman, a reform rabbi from Falls Church Virginian who has worked passionately against poverty and for the homeless and has tried to make her causes into significant Jewish issues, will deliver a speech.

Barack Obama has peppered his podium with dynamic and powerful Jewish leaders who have used their communal leadership positions to build bridges with the greater community.

It is an interesting move on Obama's part.

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Syria & Lebanon A New Era
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Syria and Lebanon agreed to establish and normalize diplomatic relations.
The next day they established a committee to lay out the border between the countries.

Syria and Lebanon have organized committees in the past and they have all failed.
Relations have never been normal between these two countries.
Syria would never tolerate such a relationship.
Syria has always understood Lebanon to be a province of Syria not a separate independent country.

But the world is different and Syria is actually feeling world pressure.
We may be witnessing the result of the huge amounts of pressure the West have been exerting on Syria.
Syria is further along now it terms of global cooperation than it has ever been.
Let's not applaud yet, let's watch and see if this is true change or cosmetic PR.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Rev. Rick Warren hosted an hour long discussion on the candidates.
The discussion, held in the Reverend's Saddleback Church in California, was truly telling.

I saw an almost total reversal of character.
Candidate Obama was long and round about.
Candidate McCain was short and clipped.

McCain spoke movingly about almost everything including personal failures. Obama was much less personal.

McCain was punching away, answering even before the question was finished. He bantered, he was congenial.
Obama was more in lecture mode and matter of fact.
His cadence lacked the sprite step of his youth.

In short, Obama was laid back and McCain was pumped up.
I look forward to further discussions between the candidates.
This is an ever-changing race.

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Funny Things Happen
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The truth is often stranger than fiction.

The story:
A family claiming to be from Sudan applied to be refugees in Israel.
They explained that they escaped Darfur, crossed all of Egypt and then secretly and skillfully crossed into Israel.
Safely in Israel the family applied to remain in the Jewish State.
As they were being processed, the application hit a snag.

The snag:
The names of two of the six children seemed to be out of place.
They were Uday and Qusay, the names of the children of Saddam Hussein.

The result:
The application was denied.
The family was not really from Darfur, they were from Iraq.
They were just trying to get to Israel, a better place to live.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday, August 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The United States blew it when it came to intelligence on Russia and Georgia.
That mistake will set back US diplomacy for a significant amount of time.
The US should have seen this conflict coming.

The signs were there:
# 1: over the past few years the Russians have granted citizenship to so many Ossetians and Abkhazians that the majority of the people of the region are now Russian citizens

# 2: the Russians made it obvious to everyone just how threatened they were over the possibility of Georgia (and the Ukraine) joining NATO

# 3: Russia was seriously distraught that not one but two pipelines, one for gas and one for oil, bypass Russia and go through Georgia

# 4: the Western-style approach of Georgian President Saakashvilli was a direct slap in the face to Russia.

Not to see these things means that people were asleep at the wheel.
I always gave the Intel community the benefit of the doubt in the Middle East because they really do not understand Islam - but here it is another story.

If Georgia falls Western intell will effectively be shut out of the Caucasus'.
If Georgia falls major oil and gas wealth from the Caspian Sea will fall into the control of Russia.
The handwriting on the wall was there, the United States just didn't bother to read it.

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Iran Fires the Friend of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

By now most people know about Iranian vice president Mashai.

As I wrote several weeks ago, he is the Iranian official who said that Iran is friends with all people in the world, even the US and Israel.
Not surprisingly, that quote was quickly taken down from his webpage.
As for the people who actually heard him, they were shocked.

Mashai tried to say that he had been misheard and misunderstood.
He tried to put a spin on his statement saying that he meant "no hostility towards" rather than "friends with."
Official Iran did not buy his explanation.
Mashai will be removed from his position.

Mashai's career is shot. But in truth, he is really not far off the mark. The people of Iran do not dislike Israel or the US, it's just that Iranian leaders are not supposed to say it aloud and publicly.

To complicate matters a bit, I should point out that Mashai was a real insider.
So much so, that Mashai's daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has threatened the United States.
The Russians are saying that America must choose between a real foreign diplomacy relationship with them or a virtual relationship with Georgia.

The Russians masterfully played their hand by invading Georgia at a time when they knew the US would really do nothing.
At the time, it was a win-win scenario.
Now, however, they may be overplaying their hand.

Russia thinks they understand the United States.
The Russians think that Washington needs to play with the big boys to control the world.
The Russians are mistaken.
There is but one overarching foreign policy vision (outside of economics) for any US administration --- the support of developing democracies.

Russia is a quickly shrinking democracy.
Georgia is a quickly growing democracy.
The conflict between Russia and Georgia may be dying down, but Congress and the next administration are going to remember the events of this summer.

Russia can threaten, but the United States is committed to aiding, assisting and supporting Georgia now and in the near future.

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Israel & Georgia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israel anticipated the Russian-Georgia conflict late in 2007.

Israel squelched an arms deal with Georgia.
Until then, Israel was pretty actively arming Georgia.
But this was a deal for the Merkava tank, arguably the safest and most mobile tank in the world.

Russia took serious umbrage over the impending sale.
After looking carefully at the situation Israel felt that that Georgia-Russian situation was too volatile and so Israel backed out of the deal.

Over the years, whenever Israel challenged Russia about selling weapons to Syria saying that those weapons would fall into the hands of terrorists the Russians would throw it back in the face of the Israelis.
The Russians would say: When you stop selling to Georgia we can talk about stopping our sales to Syria.

Israel stopped selling arms to Georgia.
The Russians are still selling arms to Syria.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The United States holds no leverage over Russia in their conflict in Georgia.
I repeat, the United States holds no leverage over Russia in their conflict in Georgia - and the world knows it.
The world sees that the US has no power to stop Russia.
And that is very frightening:

The bad guys, the rogue nations, can see how the United States has done nothing to aid a friend and to stop Russia.
And they are pleased.

What can the United States do short of a military strike?
How effective is diplomacy?
What good is international condemnation?
What good is it being a friend of the United States when the United States is as paralyzed as every other nation?

The United States can stand on its head, but Russia will end this conflict when Russia wants it to end.
It does not matter how many presidents or how many foreign ministers arrive in Tiblisi - and that includes Secretary of State Rice - it will end when Russia wants it to end.

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Humor at the Olympics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Olympic swimmer Guy Barnea broke an Israeli record in his heats on Sunday.
He received a phone call of congratulations from President Shimon Peres who is in Beijing watching the games.
So where is the humor?

The swimmer thought it was a teammate imitating the president's very distinctive voice and cadence.
He could not believe it was actually Peres on the line.

After the confusion, they both had a good laugh.
So can we.
That's democracy at its best.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

August 12, 2008

I'm Predicting:

Relations between Russia and Georgia have been strained ever since the Soviet Union was taken apart. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union South Ossetia has been in Georgia, but South Ossetia has always wanted independence.
They have their own flag, language and culture.

In 1992 the Russians were appointed peacekeeping observers of Ossetia. They were there to maintain the status quo and to protect Ossetia from dominance by Georgia.
In 2006 Ossetia had a national referendum and declared independence.

The entire world ignored their call for independence - including Georgia.
When Russia saw that Georgia was intensifying its hold on Ossetia they took it as a threat to their Russian observer status.
The great bear pounced - ostensibly to protect Ossetia but really out of self interest.
Russia crossed the border - literally and figuratively - and attacked Georgia proper.
Now we have big guns, death and destruction.

Russia will not back down until the Russian objective has been achieved.
The Russian objective is to tone down Georgia vis a vis Ossetia.
The situation will never return to status quo.
These wounds never heal.

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New Neo Nazis in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

German police shut down an adventure camp near Rostock in Northern Germany on Sunday.
It was a Neo-Nazi camp.

The police sent 39 campers, children and teenagers, home.
The police confiscated original propaganda dating from the early 20th century.
The police found numerous other items emblazoned with swastikas.

This should not come as a shock.
The Neo-Nazi movement is alive and growing fast in Western Europe.
These movements are particularly anti-immigrant and xenophobic.

The new Neo-Nazi movements are independent, but they have international support - especially internet and web support.
Most of these groups use similar websites for their information, news and even tactical how-tos like creating summer camp programs for children and teenagers.

Beware.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

South Ossetia, Georgia and Russia. What a hornet's nest.

The United States is preparing a resolution for the United Nations Security Council that will condemn Russia for its involvement in this conflict.
The Russians say that anti-Russian bias has crippled the ability of the world to see what is really happening.

Let me make it really simple:
On November 12, 2006 South Ossetia declared its independence from Georgia. There are about 70,000 people in South Ossetia.
The Declaration of Independence was not recognized.
South Ossetia continued to be a hot spot under Georgian control.
Russia was supposed to keep the peace but instead chose to support the Ossetian separatists.

Then the situation began to escalate:
On August 8th the Russian Air Force bombed Georgia - the Georgian Army invaded South Ossetia.
Now the world is shouting Russia get out and in response Russia is saying if you side with the Georgians your diplomatic relations with us will suffer.

Finally, Russia gives a damn about something other than money - but at what price?

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Iranians Shake Israeli's Hand
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Olympics is about sports, about competition, about triumph and tears and about touching moments.

The Iranians have put a damper on the games by insisting that no Iranians see, compete or touch an Israeli.
On Saturday an Iranian swimmer disqualified himself because an Israeli was in the same heat.

But on Sunday Iran played Russia in basketball and Russia easily won 71-49.
The coach of the Russian National team is named David Blatt.
Whoops!
David Blatt is an American Jew who went to Princeton, he is also an Israeli citizen and he coached basketball in Israel for many years.

Blatt is one of the most popular identifiable Israelis in the world of sports.
Blatt shook hands with the Iranian coach and with all the payers after the game, it is there, in photos and videos, for all to see.
I cannot wait to see how the press in Iran covers that Olympic moment.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Politicians come in all shapes and characters - seldom are they perfect.
In this presidential election, more than others, we seem to be focusing more on the imperfections of the candidates than on their attributes.
Both candidates are providing the media and voters with a lot of material.

The NYTimes has a front page piece about McCain and his gold cell phone.
Apparently the McCain staff is attempting to keep their candidate and his phone far away from each other because of his penchant for turning his last conversation into his next talking points.

Is that an imperfection or an attribute?
On the on hand, staying on point is one of the most important skills a candidate can master and one McCain should learn fast.
On the other hand, it is actually charming that McCain is not a micromanager and can distance himself from the minutia of the election.

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New Info From Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the events of last week when internal tensions in Gaza forced Fatah members to bolt and seek refuge in Israel?
Remember that when some 30 of the Fatah members returned to Gaza they were immediately arrested by Hamas?
Remember that Israel then decided to let the remaining Fatah members stay and be relocated in the Palestinian Authority?

Well yesterday the London based Arabic newspaper Al Hayat reported that Israel interrogated all the Fatah members before relocating them.
Of course Israel interrogated them - only it is called a debriefing.

Israel got up to the minute details of Hamas' capabilities and arms - it was all part of the deal that saved the Fatah clan.
Israel did not simply allow members of Fatah to cross their border for humanitarian reasons, there were also important strategic and tactical benefits to helping the Fatah people.

Israel has been out of Gaza for three years now, Fatah has been officially out for a year, but some small groups remained behind as a stronghold.
This was the last of that group.
This was the last opportunity for reliable inside information about Hamas in Gaza.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Campaigns sometimes allow a candidate to over-speak.
That is what allows candidates the ability to make statements without context and without the need to deal with the true political realities of a situation.

So it is with John McCain when he condemned Russia for the aerial attack against Georgia.
Certainly what happened in Georgia was horrific
Certainly condemnation was in place and appropriate.

McCain was much more forceful than the White House in his criticism of Russia. As a candidate he does not have to weather a diplomatic storm or a backlash if his comments are too pointed.
As a president he would have to temper his comments with diplomacy.

A president has people who compose statements and comments that send out a clear message that is also diplomatic - that is why it is called "the art of diplomacy."
A candidate can afford to be more bold and brazen.

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Iranian Diplomat in an Israeli Paper
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The press attache from the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Majid Bashtestani, granted an interview to an Israeli Arabic paper published in Nazareth.
It was the first time ever that an Iranian official deigned to talk to any Israeli publication or media group.

The official warned Israel not to attack saying: "If Israel were to do something stupid - it will face a shocking response the likes of which it has never encountered before."

About Israel negotiating with Syria he said: "Syria has every right to regain its plundered land, the occupied Golan Heights, and therefore it has the right to negotiate and try to regain what belongs it."

And about nuclear technology he said: "Iran will never fully give up on its rights, which are set in international law, granting it the right to possess nuclear power for peaceful purposes."

While the fact that this interview even took place is significant, the interview itself was without significant insight.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The new CCN poll posted last night has the presidential race much tighter than one would think.

Obama leads McCain 48 to 43 with 9% undecided and a 3% margin of error.
That is very close and getting closer.
The margin of error could put the candidates as close as 48-46.

It looked as if the race was Obama's to win, but that has changed.
Obama profited from a small bump during his Mid East trip but McCain has since whittled away that lead.

Now Obama is off on a long trip to Hawaii.
Not too many vote out there in Hawaii, but it is a return to Obama's roots.
Obama is probably hoping to use his high school reunion into as a springboard for middle America.

He's hoping to "book 'em."

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Hamas Fatah Fighting in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The conflict that took place this past weekend in Gaza is more significant than it at first appears.
The nearly 200 Hilless clan members who bolted Gaza and sought refuge in Israel were the last military stand of Fatah.

Hilless was the final group of Fatah-affiliated armed fighters in Gaza.
Now they are either all gone, killed or arrested by Hamas.
Their arms have been confiscated by Hamas.

It was the last military stand of Fatah in Gaza, but it is not the end.
30% to 40% of Gazans support Fatah over Hamas ideologically.
That will not change.
In fact, as Hamas restrictions on the activities of daily life continue to increase, the number of Gazans favoring Fatah will probably shift, as well.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The US is in the final stages of deciding whether to open an interest section in Iran.
An interest section is a diplomatic office that deals with the interests of Americans in Iran and with Iranian interest in the United States.

It is an official diplomatic posting and even though it is below the level of ambassador, an interest section is still a diplomatic presence.
The only thing remaining before this office can be opened is a decision by President George Bush.

All of this leaves the presidential candidates in a strange limbo-like situation.
The United States may be changing policy on Iran.
If that happens it will, to put it mildly, have a significant impact on the foreign policy platforms of both candidates.

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Arabs v Arabs in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In Gaza over the weekend 11 people were killed, over 80 were wounded and 8 are in critical condition.
The fighting between Hamas and Fatah continues on and on.

The exchanges were co heavy and so heated that 188 Fatah members sought refuge in Israel.
They are all members of the Hilless clan.
And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak let them in.

Both Egyptian and Palestinian representatives contacted Barak's office to make certain that these Fatah members would be permitted to enter Israel.
Even Ahmed Hilless, the head of the clan and was also wounded, escaped to Israel.

32 of the Fatah members returned to Gaza.
Most of them were arrested as soon as they crossed back over the border.
Gaza is not someplace you want to be right now.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Let me put it bluntly: American voters do not cast their presidential vote because of the candidate's vice president.
So why all the hoopla?

The biggest issue in choosing a running mate is finding someone who will work best with the presidential candidate.
Who does the candidate think will best compliment his personality.
Better yet, who will do what he or she is told to do.
That is what determines the vice presidential choice - it is a personality contest, not a political equation.

The current VP has reshaped the position, but believe me, that is only temporary.
The next vice president will look and function a lot like every other vice presidents with the exception of Cheney.
No new precedents will be set when the next vice presidential hopefuls are named.

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Syrian Iran Nexus
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Syrian Foreign Minister Wllid al Muallem visited Iran.
Today Syrian President Bashar Assad met Ahmadinejad in Teheran.
What's going on?

Syria wants to be brought in from the frozen diplomatic tundra that they have been kept in by the United States and the West.
Syria has, until now, been allied with Iran.
Iran is starting to feel the pressure.
Iran knows that once the process begins in earnest, Syria will not be able to play both sides of the fence.

Iran needs to make Syria understand how much there is to lose by abandoning Iran and embarking on a pro-Western joy ride.
Iran and the religious extremists have the power to destabilize Syria and topple Assad at will and in a matter if seconds.

Assad must decide.
Is the warm weather and the promise of new economic opportunities worth it?
What is the bottom line for Bashar Assad?

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Nazi Hero?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I was shocked to read of a funeral that took place in Croatia.
It was the funeral of a prisoner named Dinko Sakic.
Sakic was convicted of being Commander of Jasenovac, a concentration camp, during World War II.

The Nazis created a puppet state in Croatia and called it The Nazi Allied Ustasha Regime.
Sakic was 87 when he died and was serving out his sentence for war crimes committed as supervisor of the camp.

Dinko Sakic was buried in his Ustasha uniform.
The priest who conducted the burial called Sakic a hero and a role model and a "person Croats must be proud of."

Dinko Sakic was a mass murdered.
He died in prison and deserves a proper burial - something he personally denied most of his victims - but Sakic should never be made into a hero.
To call Dinko Sakic a hero is to whitewash history.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Of course race is an issue in this election.
This is America.
Race is the single most not talked about tension in America.

The first black candidate with a real shot at the title is running against a white bread American.
This has to be on the minds of everyone interested in the election.

The biggest question of the election is the race question:
Will white Americans be as open minded behind the curtain as they profess to be in public and in polls?

If the Barack campaign can answer that question then the campaign pollster can actually create a poll which has some real veracity.
The primaries proved white Americans can put the race card behind them and Democrats voted for Obama.
But then again, the other choice was a woman.

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Polls Are Tricky
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Olmert made his announcement, now the pollsters take over.
The findings are not as obvious as once might think.

According to a poll taken yesterday and released this morning:
If there were national elections toady and Tzipi Livni were to head Kadima, the party would edge out Bibi (Benjamin) Netanyahu and Likud 26-25 (with a 4.1 degree of error). In another poll 32-27.
If there were national elections today the Labor party, under the leadership of Ehud Barak, would only pull in 17 seats in the new Knesset.

That means several things:
First and most importantly, Labor is not going to be out there destroying the government.
Next, Shas will also be wary because their seats are a crap shoot.
And third, this new poll indicates that Likud under Netanyahu is not so beloved.

There are a lot of "if"s in this poll.
If Shaul Mofaz, the other candidate for Kadima leader, wins the party leadership Likud would do much better come an election.

So let's wait and see.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It was nothing short of thrilling to hear yesterday's announcements that both parties were taking their electioneering up a notch.

Things have been pretty slow - make that boring - until now.
I am not suggesting that campaigning go dirty, but the time has come to stop pulling punches.
The time has come to call candidates and policies for exactly who and what they are and then to exaggerate a little in order to make it all perfectly clear and memorable for the voters.

Politics is a rock 'um sock 'um game.
Barak can rock 'um and McCain will sock 'um and may the best party win.

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What's Next in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ehud Olmert has declared he will step down as prime minister following Kadima primaries on September 25th.
What happens then?

I'll tell you:
The next leader of Kadima will try to keep a coalition of over 61 members in the 120 member Knesset.
If that person fails to maintain a majority Israeli President Shimon Peres must ask the leader of the next party in line to cobble together a majority within 28 days. The president can add on another 14 days for a total of 42 days.
If the second party leader also fails then President Peres goes to the third tier and that party leader gets only 28 days to put together a majority government.
If this person also fails to form a coalition, new elections are called within 90 days.

Ehud Barak, popular as he is, leader of the Labor party is not an elected member of Knesset so he cannot be one of those people asked to form a government.
But if new elections are called and if he places on a party list then he has a chance at once again, becoming prime minister of Israel.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Am I the only person out there not surprised that the Chinese lied about health conditions and their ability to clean everything up before the Olympics?

Of course the Chinese lied.
There is no way to clean up Beijing - certainly not to the levels that we in the West consider safe.
So now we subject athletes and tourists to the mess and recognize just how we have been duped.

The Olympic Games are supposed to be above politics - but they are not.
The five rings represent the 5 continents (North & South America are considered one).
The five colors represent at least one color in every flag from every nation in the world.

The Olympics Games are all about politics.
China played the game of Olympic politics skillfully and won the big prize.
Now the health and well being of the world’s finest athletes are at risk.
Shame on the Olympic Committee for being conned by the Chinese.

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Al Qaeda Logic
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Western mind finds it difficult to understand Islamic radicalism.
We are not wired to understand extremism, so much of extremist logic just seems backward to us.

Pay attention to what al Qaeda commander Abu Yihia al Libi said in a 43 minute long video posted on a known al Qaeda site.
Al Libi was responding to the Saudi initiative that brought Christians, Sikhs, Hindus and Jews together with Muslims.
Al Libi called for the assassination of the King of Saudi Arabia because, he rationalized, "bringing religions together ... means renouncing Islam."

According to al Libi's logic getting along is bad, it is actually a violation of a basic tenet of Islam.
Al Qaeda subscribes to the theory that interfaith dialogue gives credence to other religions which by definition diminishes Islam.
Therefore, it follows that the King of Saudi Arabia has insulted Islam and should be killed for defaming Islam.

Al Libi is a real hero in the extremist world - he has real credibility.
Al Libi escaped from Bagram prison in Afghanistan, a prison known in the al Qaeda world as a brutal US interrogation center.

In the world of radical Islam, when Abu Yihia al Libi speaks, people listen.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Obama has gotten more than a little boost from his international trip.
Judging by the numbers, the oversea trip seems to have been a real success.

Of course it is not without criticism.
Diplomatically, he has been accused of favoring one side over the other.
The Palestinians are griping that he showed his true colors by spending so much more time with the Israelis than with them and projecting that, if elected, he will not be impartial.

Physically, that seems to be the case.
I noticed Obama walking with a pretty severe limp in Germany.
He hurt his hip a few weeks ago playing basketball and during this trip he actually got in a few hoops while in Kuwait with some US servicemen.
Obama visited the University of Chicago Medical Center on Sunday, had x-rays taken and was told he'd be okay in few weeks.

Being on the road is tough.

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Iran Wants on The Security Council
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has put forth a request to become a permanent observer on the UN Security Council.

The idea seems preposterous, even absurd.
But Iran is masterful at game playing, maneuvering and manipulating.
Iran is acting tactically and very shrewdly.
Iran is appealing to the members of the old non-aligned pact.

During the Cold War the non-aligned nations were those nations not connected to either the Soviets or to the West.
Iran is wooing the many countries that are still non-aligned so that they will bring the question of Iran to the Security Council.

This Iranian move has a chance of succeeding.
The United Nations is skewed specifically to help give voice to those nations that Iran is supposedly championing.

If Iran's request meets with success it will be a devastating blow to the West.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

July 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama said in an interview with Tom Brokow on Sunday morning that it is time for a Palestinian state.

He said that the Palestinians "are having a hard time."
He said that a Palestinian state would benefit both the Palestinians and the Israelis.
He said that a Palestinian state would hurt Iran's interest and build good will among Arabs.

All this may be true.
So then why has a Palestinian State not yet been created?

Because both President Bill Clinton and President George Bush held the Palestinians to a minimum standard of behavior before committing to helping them create a Palestinian state.
Because in the past 16 years the Palestinians have been unable to meet the minimum standard.
Because the Palestinians have not yet taken a stand against terror.

It's that simple, Barack Obama. It's that simple.

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Obama's Note at the Wall
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama wrote a note and placed it in the Western Wall.
The note was written on stationary from the King David Hotel.
Given, the content of the note was placid and somewhat vapid.
But removing the note and publicly publishing it was downright distasteful.

Had the Obama campaign made the note public the situation would be different.
Then it would have been a "perfect prayer."
Then it would probably have been more patriotic and hopefully, presidential.

Simply put, this was not nice. Not because it was a private moment - there is no such thing as privacy when you are running for President. It was inappropriate because it happened at a religious site, it happened at the Wall.

People come from all over the world and put their personal notes in the wall. They are messages to God placed in the only remaining retaining wall of the Second Temple, built by Herod. It is the closest one can get to the original Sanctum Sanctorum, the Holy of Holies, without going underground.

Visitors and newspapers should act with proper respect out of respect for the place and the act.
God does not need notes to know our prayers.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The question of moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem emerges during every presidential election.
This entire campaign, however, the issue was barely raised.
Until Saturday.

In an interview on CNN the embassy question was put to John McCain.
The Republican presidential hopeful made it clear:
He said he would move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
He said he would move the embassy "right away."
He said "I've been committed to that proposition for years."

Of course he has - it is the official policy of the United States that the embassy should be moved.
Of course he won't - if elected McCain will not move the embassy, just like every US president before.

Once in power every president has issues to consider other than the US Embassy in Israel. Moving the embassy would generate flak from the Arab and Muslim world and the effort would require great moral and diplomatic strength.
I wish it would happen, but no president is willing to make it happen.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

July 26, 20008

I've Been Thinking:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain had some harsh words for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's plan for Iran.
He used the words "audacity and hopelessness."

That may be true.
But so far the McCain campaign has yet to put forward its own serious plan to hem in Iran.
The McCain campaign needs to present a message independent of Obama's message. They have to take their own message to the people over the airwaves with paid ads.

In politics of the presidency it is not good enough to rely on negative ads and negative messages.
A campaign does not progress by simply reacting to and responding to messages.
No campaign should depend on press coverage to fuel their campaign.

The press are fickle.
Today the press is infatuated with Obama.
But that infatuation should neither prevent nor inhibit John McCain from buying studio time and delivering his own message.
On the contrary.

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Attack of the Rats
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Ripley's Believe It Or Not where truth is much more fascinating than fiction.

Palestinian Media Watch brought the following tale to my attention.
Two major Palestinian newspapers recently reported that Israel has created a super brand of rats expressly used to infest the Arab quarter of Jerusalem.

Here is the way the tale was reported in Al Ayyam and in Al Hayat al Jadida:
"settlers have been bringing chests filled with rats and releasing them in the Old City's [Arab] neighborhoods; they breed and have become a major curse... the [Arab] residents' efforts to counter this infestation have failed, especially since cats run away from these rats because of their size and ferocity... All of the conventional efforts to kill them have not succeeded, because they seem to be immune to poison and they breed in the sewers. It is known that this female rat gives birth seven times a year, each time giving birth to 20 babies; which compels Jerusalem's [Arabs] today to face the dangers of settlement and the infestation of rats..." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, controlled by the office of Mahmoud Abbas, July 18, 2008]

"Large numbers of [Israeli] settlers have been bringing huge cages full of rats and releasing them onto the streets and alleys of the Old City [Jerusalem]...in order to turn the [Arab] residents' life into a living hell, forcing then to leave..." [Al-Ayyam, July 17, 2008]

Too ridiculous to be believable? Yes.
Unless you live in the Palestinian Authority.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama is concluding his foreign tour.
It's time for analysis.

Obama demonstrated that he can both listen and learn.
Everywhere he visited leaders and staffers were impressed by the way he listened and by the respect he showed for the knowledge and experience of his hosts.

Obama demonstrated that he is capable of being a world class diplomat.
He spoke to many people about many ideas and did not insult any of them. He proved he could gain their trust.

Obama's presentations were tasteful and he deftly threaded the needle on diplomatically delicate issues.
He managed to push the agenda that the United States will continue on the front line against terror and at the same time that the United States needs help doing it.

It is the Obama Doctrine: Give respect and in turn the United States will get respect.
This trip looks like success to me.

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Russia Sells Iran New Anti Aircraft
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli senior defense sources reported yesterday that Iran will receive the new S-300 Russian anti aircraft batteries.
The S-300 is said to be one of the best anti missile and anti aircraft missile systems in the world.

The S-300 can track 100 missiles and planes at a single time and simultaneously shoot at 12.
Iran is to receive the shipment in September, it will take between 6-12 months to assemble parts and train personnel.

This is significant concern for Israel and the US.
This new system will dramatically improve Iran's defense.
Every system has its weakness and Israel specializes at finding that weakness. But it will be much more difficult with the S-300.

Several months ago when the deal was made public Russia denied the fact that there was any deal.
Russia is playing a very irresponsible game.
No surprise there.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

During Barack Obama's trip to Israel he took the time to visit Sderot.
Sderot is certainly a town that needs positive attention.
The residents have been subjected to non stop rocket attacks for 6 years.

Israeli leadership should ask Barack Obama to write down and notarize the comments he made in Sderot.
He said: if someone was firing at his home where his two daughters were sleeping he would do everything it takes to stop the bombing.
He said: that is what he expects Israel to do.

I hope Barack Obama truly stands by his word when Israel strikes back in order to try to stop the rockets - but I am not confident of that.
I bet the senator's response will be the same whether he is in the White House or on Capitol Hill.
I bet that when it happens, he will urge Israel to use restraint and urge Israel not to harm innocent civilians.

That is the way it goes during political campaigns, everything is of the moment.

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Gas Masks
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just collected all the gas masks distributed on the eve of the Gulf War when the United States invaded Iraq.

77% of the masks were returned.
Of those, 50% will be cleaned and available to be used again. Unfortunately, the other 50% of the masks were not up to standard.

As tensions rise with Iran Israel may have to reissue those masks.
The process can be completed in a matter of days and the entire country will be outfitted with these safety kits.
Should that happen, it will be one last sign.
It will mean that Iran is getting close to launching an attack and that Israel is readying to launch a preemptive strike.

Given all the variables at play, the return of the gas masks will be one of the most palpable signals of an imminent threat against Israel.
Today the masks have been collected.
Now we wait and wonder if or when they will be reissued.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The NY Times is the paper of record for the Western world.
The NY Times just ran an OPED penned by Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, explaining his point of view on Iraq.

Fair is fair, so the Republicans had McCain do the same.
Only The NY Times rejected the McCain piece.

That is serious business.
OPEDs are supposed to discuss the issues. It would have been best had pieces from both candidates run on the same day - a face off of sorts. That way the paper would have opened up a forum allowing for a discussion of the ideas presented by both men who want to be president.

If it was not obvious before, it is obvious now.
There is no doubt that The NY Times will endorse Obama.
But the paper of record for the Western world owes it to the public to play the game fairly and you cannot be a good sport if you handicap one of the players.

There is nothing wrong with a newspaper having a point of view.
The NY Times does not need to be impartial, but it should be fair.

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Hezbollah Planning Attacks
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Amos Yadlin, head of Israel Military Intelligence is reporting that Hezbollah is planning to attack Israel.
Hezbollah is always planning to attack Israel and just because there is a plan it does not necessarily follow that there will be an attack.
So what's his point?

Yadlin is pointing out that both circumstances and the size of Hezbollah's arsenal have changed. He is pointing out that according to intelligence reports Hezbollah has built up and improved their weapons supply so that it is now 2-3 times larger than it was two summers ago, before the war with Israel.

Yadlin also has information that Hezbollah has set up sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons to prevent Israel from flying helicopter and air recon or attacks over Lebanon. His information has been confirmed by Kuwaiti news reports.

Yadlin has put together the following calculus:
Now that the prisoner exchange is over and Samir Kuntar has been returned, Hezbollah can increase tensions along the northern border of Israel without fear of torpedoing or jeopardizing any long range Hezbollah plans.

That's his point - and that point is significant.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has thrust himself into the US news cycle for a reason.
Maliki wants to influence US policy and US elections.
And his pronouncement, calling for a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq, is the perfect compliment to Barack Obama's stated policy.

Understand something. Maliki really does want the US out, but he also wants more than that. He is playing to his people and he is playing to please Barack Obama.

Here is the problem. The military leadership needs some stability. If they advise a US withdrawal it must be a slow process, so slow that the handover and the terrorists will not even realize that it is happening.
Right now, relations are fine between the United States, the Iraqi military and local Iraqi law enforcement and training programs are running smoothly.

The relationship is better and more professional that it has ever been.
But the relationship is still very fragile.
And training still takes time and requires an entire transformation of attitude and discipline.

Maliki wants the power.
Maliki wants to be seen internally as giving the United States orders and being a real partner with the super power.
And Maliki wants to jab the administration just a little and echo Obama's line.

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Iran VP Says Friend of Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine my surprise when I read the following quotes from the Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei.

"No nation in the world is our enemy, Iran is a friend of the nation in the United States and in Israel, and this is an honor. We view the American nation as one with the greatest nations of the world."

These words were said at a tourism convention in Teheran.
There was no coverage in the Iranian press, the quote can only be found on the vice president's web page.

The Iranian vice president has since recanted his statement to IRNA, the official Iranian news agency.
But he has continued to say that "we do not want war with any country."
Never before has any official in the Islamic Republic ever even intimated, let alone said outright, anything like this about Israel.

The question is: does Rahim-Mashaei stand alone or was he sent out to test the waters in a new government-led campaign?

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama is in for some serious educating.

Obama is a virtual novice entering areas with which he has little background.
While in Afghanistan and the Middle East he must be prepared for a steep and surprising learning curve.
In these areas rhetoric has no clout - it is stark reality that counts.

These realities separate the ideologues from the practicalists.
When it comes to Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and the Palestinians it is reality that will inform a successful leader's mission and vision.

I hope that Obama comes back from this trip with a more realistic idea of the Middle East than the skewed vision he left with.
I hope that he will shift his advisors to people who have a realistic understanding of the Middle East.
I hope that he will understand what is possible and feasible in the Middle East and what is not - in terms of timetables, personalities, age old dynamics and changing sensibilities.

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US & Iran in Talks?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Follow this calendar of events:
Thursday - top US Presidential Adviser and National Security Adviser Steven Hedley meets with Turkish foreign minister, Ali Babacan, in Turkey.

Friday - Babican meets with Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

Saturday - Manouchehr Mottaki will meet in Geneva with diplomats from various countries, including US Under Secretary of State William Burns, in Geneva. The United States says that Burns will just listen.

Everything on the agenda is about Iran's nuclear development.
The Iranians are very hopeful.
Of course they are

The Iranians are getting everything they wanted and more.
They are being spoken to face to face and their issues are being heard by the most important and influential powers of the world including the United States.
Once again, Iran has won.
They are masters.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Of course Obama's trip to the Middle East and Europe is political.
He is running for president.
Everything he does is political.

Six months ago I strongly suggested that this presidential hopeful make a trip to the Middle East.
I suggested that he take in as much information and gather as much input as possible.
I suggested a trip during which Obama speaks not just to the commanders on the ground in Iraq but also to the leaders in the Region.
I suggested that a trip like that will shape and better his understanding of the Middle East.

If he listens he will hear just how significant a threat Iran presents to the Region.
The only question is: will Barack Obama listen.

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US Diplomat Talks To Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The London based Guardian newspaper reported on Thursday that the United States has decided to post diplomats in Iran.
It will be the first time since the Islamic Revolution that US diplomats are stationed in Iran.

There's more: the US has sent a high level diplomat to join the UN the EU and Germany in their current discussion with Iran about nuclear development. The diplomat chosen for this mission is United States Undersecretary of State William Burns, who ranks #3 in the State Department.

These are significant changes in US policy.
So significant that the US thought it important to inform Israel of the decisions.
The US is insisting that Burns' involvement is simply to reiterate the US position.
The US is insisting that there will be no discussion until Iran stops developing nuclear technology.
But if the same position is in effect, why dispatch your #3 diplomat?

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Obama campaign announced on Thursday that they raised $52 million in June.
The McCain campaign said they raised 22.

Interesting, but not a very accurate picture of the monies raised for the campaigns and dedicated to the election by the candidates.
When you total what each party raised together with what each candidate raised, the figures look very different.
When you total those numbers, the Democrats under Obama raised $92.3 million and the Republicans raised $95 million.

Why is this so significant?
There is no doubt that Obama is capable of raising money because he is touching a very sensitive cord in America.
And it can also be said that fewer Republicans are excited about McCain.
But when it comes to the parties Republicans and Democrats seem be running neck to neck in the fiscal department.

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A Perverse Celebration
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There is something perverse about celebrating the return of a mass murderer, especially perverse about celebrating the return of a murderer of children.
I know the expression one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter, but the celebrations and the blessings are very hard for the civilized mind to comprehend.

Samir Kuntar is now a free man in Lebanon, blessed and embraced by those who supported his murderous ways. Hezbollah and Hamas have offered him not only congratulations, but blessings, which is to be expected.
Hezbollah, Hamas and Kuntar are kindred spirits.

Why did Abbas bless Samir Kuntar?
Why did Abbas send blessings to Kuntar's family and the families of the other terrorists exchanged in this deal?
Isn't Abbas supposed to oppose this kind of terror?
Isn't Abbas supposed to represent a new kind of Palestinian leadership, the kind that opposes violence?

It was not a politically expedient gesture, Abbas has revealed his true self.
It takes a certain kind of person to embrace a terrorist and call him a hero.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I give Jon McCain a lot of credit for speaking to the NAACP.

Of course there are blacks who vote republican, just like there are Jews and gays who vote republican, but the reality is that those voters are an anomaly.

Going to the NAACP indicates that McCain has a broad based agenda.
Most importantly, it shows the middle of the American electorate that this republican is more of a moderate than is his democratic counterpart.

McCain's speech was delivered at the NAACP but it was also aimed at white middle America which cares about injustice and race relations because it is the right thing to care about.
McCain does not hope to win over the NAACP vote. But he does hope to win their respect and the respect of middle America.

This election will be won by winning over the middle, not by preaching to the extremes.

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Historic Deal- The Caveat
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Today is an historic day.
It will go down in history as the day the most heralded prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah happened.
No Israeli is happy with the deal, but most Israelis have consoled themselves with the knowledge that a chapter, begun two summers ago, has been closed.

The process was not simple on any level.
The attorney general voted against the agreement in the cabinet meeting but never-the-less signed the papers and ushered them over to the president who was required to sign them as well.
The deal is legal - only the attorney general and president can set prisoners convicted by a court free when they have not served out their sentence.

Was the brutal terrorist / mass murderer Samir Kuntar given clemency by the president? No. Was he given a pardon? No. He was released by political decision.

The chapter is closed, the wounds are still open and raw.

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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This is America.
In America we satirize our politicians.
More than that- we are encouraged, even obligated, to satirize them.

The biggest compliment a politician can receive is to be noticed. Talk to McCain now and, if he's being honest, he will say that he wishes he were on the cover of a national magazine (and I don't mean Newsweek), that his name was on everyone's lips, that his cause was the topic on every news and discussion program.

No one can take the cover of New Yorker at face value - that's precisely the point.
Obama is a presidential hopeful, he is fodder for the media.
His wife, by placing herself front and center in the public eye is, by extension, fodder as well.

The cover of the New Yorker was an important testing of the waters.
It seems that Obama is off limits.
If I were Obama's handlers I would roll with the punch, laugh out loud and recognize that part of political commentary is satire and part is humor.

A large segment of Americans receive their news through the medium of humor.
It's the American way.

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Obama on Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Obama is back peddling on Jerusalem.
In an interview on Sunday with CNN Obama qualified the remarkably positive speech that he had given at the AIPAC Convention in DC.
At the convention he spoke of an undivided Jerusalem as the eternal capital of Israel.

I hesitate to think that a Columbia and Harvard grad does not know the meaning of the word eternal. The presidential candidate is blaming the word choice on his writers. Maybe because the term eternal has a religious implication the Obama staff was unaware of the totality of the term.

Here is what Obama said on CNN about that speech:
"You know, the truth is that this was an example where we had some poor phrasing in the speech. And we immediately tried to correct the interpretation that was given."
"the point we were simply making was, is that we don't want barbed wire running through Jerusalem, similar to the way it was prior to the '67 war."

These comments by Barack Obama are very clear to understand.
The address delivered by Barack Obama at AIPAC is very clear to understand.
This is the real Barack Obama, that is becoming very clearly understood.

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Lebanon-Syria May Open Embassies
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

One big surprise coming out of the Sarkozy Conference on Mediterranean Unity now taking place in Paris was a joint press conference between Lebanon, Syria and Sarkozy.

Sarkozy announced that the opening of embassies was in the works.
There has never been a Syrian Embassy in Beirut.
There has never been a Lebanese embassy in Damascus.
Syria and Lebanon came into existence as countries in the 1940's and Syria never recognized that Lebanon was an independent entity.
Syria always saw Lebanon as a province - and behaved accordingly.

During the press conference Syria's President Bashar Assad was, typically, non-committal.
But never-the-less it seems that there are real talks going on.

Syria's recognition of Lebanon is a dream come true in the Middle East.
But it is still too soon to celebrate.
The opening of an embassy is only a small, albeit important, first step in the process.

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Tensions Increase
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The war of words is escalating.
I hear the sabers rattling.

Iran has been testing missiles.
The message is clear.
We can hit Israel and any other target in the region whether civilian or military.

Ehud Barak, Israel's defense minister, shot off a strong warning to Iran:
"Israel is the strongest country in the region, and it has proven in the past that it is not afraid to act when vital interests are threatened."

Both Israel and Iran have expressed a desire to resolve this issue diplomatically. Barak said it in the quoted above.
Ahmadinejad said it in Malaysia the other day and I quoted him then.

We have to monitor and analyze all the rhetoric.
I am listening attentively to the aggressive, arrogant rhetoric and just as attentively to the peaceful, diplomatic rhetoric.
They are all parts of the same puzzle.
Once I have more pieces, I will be better able to predict the verbal and non-verbal games of response and counter response.

So far, the the war is still being fought only with words.

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What Iran Really Wants
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Do you know what Iran really wants?

Respect.

Iran is trying to regain lost respect.
Iran wants to be central command in the Region.
Iran wants to be leader of the entire Muslim world.

But it will never happen.

The Arab world will never permit it to happen.
There is a thousand year conflict between the Arab world and Persia, aka Iran. The conflict runs deep and is steeped in tradition.

For example: Iran wants to control the Persian Gulf, the Arab world does not even refer to the area by the same name, they call it the Arab Gulf.

Iran wants something unattainable.
Iran wants to resurrect their status to the bygone days when Persian leaders ruled the entire world and when Persia truly was the cultural apex.
Iran will have to learn to live with the disappointment.

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Ahmadinejad Says No Strike
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is in Malaysia at an Islamic conference where he has been very talkative.

Ahmadinejad is calling the tensions surrounding his nuclear program "comical."

Ahmadinejad keeps repeating his observation that the US and the Zionists, meaning Israel, are "focusing on propaganda and psychological war."

Ahmadinejad said that he can "assure you that there won't be any war in the future."

Ahmadinejad explained that the United States could not attack Iran at this time, because according to his logic is "the economic, political and military situation will not lead Mr. Bush to do that, everybody knows this fact."

Ahmadinejad reminded everyone that "the Iranian people are ready to defend their own land."
Ahmadinejad is not far from correct. Israel was told this week that they do not have a green light from the United States. Ahmadinejad is also correct because much of the game is a propaganda war game.
Ahmadinejad is also wrong. He is wrong in thinking that this is a long term situation that can drag on ad infinitum. There is a very clearly ticking clock. The irony of it all is that Ahmadinejad controls the clock.

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Iran Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is up to some typical, two-faced, tricks.
Publicly, Iran is courting Egypt.
Internally, in Persian, Iran is expressing true feelings about Egypt.

The story unfolds at a nationally sponsored Iranian film festival. A new film makes its debut, it is entitled "The Assassination of a Pharaoh." The film is a tribute to Khalid Islamboli, the assassin who murdered Anwar Sadat in October 1981. The movie calls the assassin a martyr and calls Sadat a traitor.

Immediately after the 1981 assassination Iran named a square after the assassin - and Egypt severed all diplomatic ties.
Now Iran is investing large amounts of diplomatic currency in getting back into Egypt's good graces - and Egypt was buying.
Until the movie premiered.

Egypt is one of the most significant powers in the Arab world and in the Middle East, nothing happens without Egypt's nod of approval.
As gifted as Iran is in international diplomacy, time and time again the Iranians fall victim to their own extremist ideology and absolutist religious superiority and condescension.

Iran did themselves in on this one and Egypt is really ticked off.

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US Cool on Syria Talks
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Syria just finished their third round of talks.
They agreed to meet again for fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.
They are meeting through a third party, Turkey.

It is unlikely that anything will come out of these meetings, but that does not diminish their importance.
Israel and Syria are at least creating contacts and lines of communication.
Even when everything breaks down in Turkey, the parties will have some channels through which to keep in touch.
These channels will enable them to pursue back door discussions when necessary.

The US is cool - even negative about these talks.
The US is acting like a spoiled child who needs to always be in charge.
The US ambassador to Israel called the talks "a private Israeli affair."

Talks with Egypt, Jordan the Palestinians and almost every other party requires US involvement and supervision, but with Syria, the United States is uninterested.

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Iraqi Shakes Israeli's Hand & There Are Calls For Apology
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week the President of Iraq, Jala Talibani, shook hands with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak in Greece.
They were introduced by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas at the World Socialist International Conference in Greece.

Talibani is a Kurd, he leads the PUK which is one of two Kurdish parties in the ruling authority in Iraq.
Because of the hand shake many members of the Iraqi parliament have called for a public apology, others have demanded Talibani's resignation. The Iraqis say it is against Iraqi law to shake hands with an Israeli.
The fact is it is not against the law, the law is ambiguous, which means it is not illegal.

Talibani's office issued a statement that he shook Barak's hand as the representative of the PUK Kurdish party, not as president.
Supporters of the handshake said: "He was welcomed by Abbas who introduced him to Barak. It would have been illogical to refuse. It doesn't mean relations are normal."

Actually, not shaking hands would have been un-Arab and unacceptable public protocol. When one Arab leader introduces another Arab leader to some other leader, etiquette requires polite behavior.

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Israel to Exchange Info With Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the families of 4 Iranian diplomats arrived in Beirut.
They are the families of diplomats who disappeared in Lebanon in 1982.
Iran claims that Israel took them and has detained them since their capture in July of 1982.

Part of the deal with Hezbollah that includes exchanging live Arab prisoners for dead Israeli soldiers includes exchanging files of information.
Hezbollah will deliver their information on Ron Arad, the Israeli navigator shot down over Lebanon near Sidon in 1986.
The Iranians believe that the 4 diplomats are still alive.

The Israeli report will show that the Iranians were captured and killed by the Lebanese Christian Phalange group commanded by Hubeika, who was killed 6 years ago.

The Hezbollah report will say that they can not locate Ron Arad. It will say that Arad was captured before Hezbollah was created but they know that he died soon after his capture.
Israeli intel based on interrogations has Arad alive after capture and dying in the early 1990's, other intel has him dying in the mid 1990's.
There is no answer as to exactly when or how Ron Arad died or where his body is now located.

Information will be exchanged, but nobody will learn or be convinced of anything new.

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Hezbollah in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Associated Press ran an excellent piece yesterday on Hezbollah's influence in Iran and in Iraq.
The piece will probably only run as a line item in a few papers around the world. So pay attention to what AP has revealed - this is important.

AP has proof that Hezbollah has been training Shiites fighters first in Iraq and, three months ago, started training fighters in Iran.
The objective is to attack Sunnis and US strongholds in Iraq and destabilize the situation.

Hezbollah is a highly trained Shiite force.
Hezbollah is Arab.
Iran is happy to have Hezbollah train their own and Iraqi fighters.
Iraq is happy because Hezbollah instructors speak Arabic and can fit in without raising suspicion like an Iranian, who speaks only Persian, would do.

According to AP, Hezbollah has left the Lebanese comfort zone and expanded to include pan-Muslim fighting. Iran is investing in better instructors because Iran realizes that the conflict is bigger than a few tribes in Iraq.

Iraq is a real prize for Iran and the Iranians do not intend to give up without a serious fight.

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Syria Has Envy
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I am always intrigued when Arab leaders express envy.
Envy is not an emotion that Arab leaders display in public.

So imagine my surprise when I heard the following from Walid Mouallem, Syria's foreign minister: "As a private citizen, I wish Syria had this program quite simply because Israel has made huge advances in its manufacturing of nuclear bombs."
Wow.

The context of this statement is important.
Mouallem was speaking to Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere and referring to the inspection of Syria's nuclear capabilities. The real question is whether on September 6, 2007 Israel bombed a harmless lab or a nuclear facility.

Humility is a classic Arabic emotion, not envy.

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20th Female Terrorist in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iraqi troops shot and killed their 20th female suicide bomber this year.
Last year, in the entire twelve months, there were only 8 Iraqi female suicide bombers.
That is a very big jump .

This tells us 3 very important things about Iraq.
# 1: Terrorists are resorting to using women.
The truth is, terrorists do not want to use women. Many religious leaders in these movements have rejected women, and yet they continue to come.

# 2: The fact that the Iraqis discovered and shot this terrorist says the Iraqis are on the ball. It takes infinitely more skill to detect a female suicide bomber than a male suicide bomber.

# 3: Local Iraqis are really involved in the effort to rid their country of terrorists and have actually started taking the lead over the military.

These are all good signs.

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Saudis Arrest 250 Terriorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi authorities arrested 250 terrorists this past week.
Hundreds more have been arrested over the past few months.
The arrests are an act of self-preservation on the part of the Royal Family.

Without a doubt Muslim extremists are out to topple the Saudi Royal family.
They want to place an Islamic sheik as their head, as the leader of Arabia.
And if happens the country will no longer be called Saudi Arabia which is named after the House of Saud.

The Saudis are acting out of their own self interests, but there are important regional and global by products of these arrests.
Great intelligence material is reaped from these arrests - about terrorist plans, operatives and activities around the world.
This information is shared with countries interested in fighting global terror.

That is how the war on terror is waged - through shared information.

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Cease Fire in Gaza?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This cease fire between Israel and Gaza is getting to be ludicrous.

Here are several examples:
On Thursday the rockets launched from Gaza that fell on Israel were dispatched by the Al Aqksa Brigade. Al Aqksa is part of Fatah and answerable to Abbas. Fatah wants to ruin the ceasefire in order to hurt Hamas.

On Thursday the UN claimed that there have been 8 ceasefire violations. Seven were Israeli violations and 1 was Hamas. The UN somehow missed the 5 rockets that have been launched this week from Gaza into Israel.

Salem Fayad, the Palestinian Prime Minister, said that despite the rocket fire Israel must open the borders and let in supplies because 1.5 million people in Gaza have had enough. Fayad actually admits that the rockets are being fired by Palestinians and has the audacity to explain that keeping the borders closed is by no means a reasonable response.

Hamas has said that they are very upset by the rocket fire and have condemned the rocket fire. They are contemplating acting against it.

It's time to call a spade a spade.
The cease fire was nice for the few hours it lasted - but it's over.

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Things Best Not Said
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In the world of diplomacy, there are certain statements and observations best left behind closed doors.
In the world of defense strategy, certain comments may appear to be cold, ruthless and heartless.
In the world of international intrigue, some things should just be kept secret, far away from a probing media and curious public.

That explains why certain briefings are secret and certain decisions are made behind closed doors.
Moshe Yaalon, Israel's former Military Chief of Staff, recently observed said that the price to pay by the nation of Israel to save the life of one single soldier might just be too high. He concluded that the State of Israel should not pay.

On a military level, where a calculus of cost using human lives is used, his remarks may have been appropriate.
On a political level, such discussions cannot and should not ever be made public.

Parents lend their children to the army for the profound and essential task of defending their country against enemies.
Parents ask that the government and the leaders take good care of their children and return them home.
If the ultimate sacrifice is made, let it at least be for a purpose - not a mistake.
If the ultimate sacrifice is made, make certain that the body is returned so that the family has a place to mourn.

Military Chief of Staff Yaalon was way out of line by saying what he was thinking.
He has undermined the morale and spirit of Israeli parents and their children.

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Hamas Breaks the Cease Fire
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hours ago, in the dark of night, a mortar landed in the Negev.

It was not a meteor from outer space - it was a rocket from Gaza.
Why am I even mentioning it?
Because a cease fire has been in place between Israel and Gaza since Thursday morning at 6 AM.

Not much hoopla about the breaking of the ceasefire.
After all, it was just one rocket. Relative to a normal day on the Gaza border only one rocket is still considered quiet.
But the ceasefire was broken. And the question begs asking: What would have happened had Israel broken the ceasefire?

The city of Sderot has been expecting the ceasefire to be broken.
They have had two false alarms and sirens have sounded detecting incoming rockets.
Israelis living on the border with Gaza still have not had a quiet night's sleep.

In Sderot, the threat is as terrifying as the reality.
For good reason.

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Another Christian Pogrom in the Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday in a small Egyptian town called Al Nazallah, located south of Cairo, hundreds of Muslims burnt Christian homes and businesses.
It was a veritable pogrom against Christians.

It was the classic age old conflict of religions.
A woman, a new convert to Islam, had disappeared.
Muslims thought Christians had kidnapped her to convince her to recant.

Muslims rioted, they burned down and destroyed the Christian part of town.
Police are saying that about 1000 Muslims were involved and that they needed to use tear gas in order to regain order in the town.

We have learned two very important lessons.
Lesson # 1: How deep the anti-Christian sentiments run.
Lesson # 2: The response of the Christian world.
I am still waiting for any Christian response to this pogrom.

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Iran: Attacked by Sunnis Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Sunni Muslim terrorists attacked and killed 16 Iranian Shiite police on the Pakistani border.
It happened on Friday.
This was the 2nd Sunni attack in Iran last week.
The first attack was the blowing up of a Shiite mosque.

The attacks were perpetrated by a terrorist group called Jundollah, a Sunni Muslim organization that is linked to al Qaeda.
Iran claims that the United States supported Jundollah.
The whole assertion is preposterous.

In the past the Iranian government has blamed al Qaeda for Jundollah attacks.
Now Iran has changed focus and is blaming the United States.
Iran is changing focus in an attempt to re-direct public perception in Iran.

This tells us that:
Iranian leadership now views the United States as an increasingly greater threat inside Iran and is counteracting the threat by folding arch enemy al Qaeda under the wing of the United States.

In other words:
Everything anti-Iran is sponsored by the United States.
All that is bad comes from America.

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Chasms in Palestinian Leadership
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It's all about power.
The chasms are growing deeper and deeper between Hamas and Fatah and between all the various Palestinian factions battling each other for control.

On Thursday afternoon a Fatah delegation sent by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was supposed to meet Ismail Hanyieh, Hamas leader of Gaza.
The delegation never showed up.
Hanyieh waited for an hour and then left to continue his day.
Hamas was livid.
Fatah was copying a page out of the Arafat Book of Leadership.
Arafat would miss meetings, he would be hours late to meetings, he made people wait for hours.

"We deplore the irresponsible act by the Fatah leaders and the envoys of President Abbas," a Hamas statement read.
But the message was delivered.
Fatah was saying to Hamas you are not worthy of even a cell phone call to say we are late - you are irrelevant.

This is just the beginning.
The gloves have come off.
Everyone is out to win.

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Insight From Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Al Zahar is one of the leaders of Hamas in Gaza.
Halad Mashal is head of Hamas headquarters in Damascus.
Both men have offered insight into the "lull" between Hamas and Israel.

According to Al Zahar the lull is a victory for the resistance.
It proves that Israel and their "blockade could not crush us."

According to Halad Mashal the lull is welcome as long as people remember about Hamas and the relationship Hamas has with Syria.
He is saying that Syria and Hamas will not break off relations despite the overtures of peace being made between Israel and Syria.

In the eyes of Hamas:
Every act and every event in politics and foreign policy must be interpreted as a great victory.
Never can any act be seen or presented as simply fulfilling a need.
By touting their victories, Al Zahar and Mashal are touting the party line in order to save face.

In truth:
The real reason for the "lull" - for this cease fire, is to get food and supplies into Gaza for a suffering people.
The real reason Hamas has decided to care for the people is because the more the people suffer, the more Hamas drops in popularity.

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Energy Watch Dog Sham
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes the double talk of diplomacy is just that - double talk.
Here is a case in point.

On the one hand:
In an interview with Al-Arabiya Syrian television yesterday, Mohamed El Baradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that Syria does not have the human potential to create an international quality atomic weapon. He said:
"We have no evidence that Syria has the human resources that would allow it to carry out a large nuclear program. We do not see Syria having nuclear fuel."

On the other hand:
Syria has not granted permission to investigate the three potential sites in their country.

How can both be happening?
Obviously Syria does not have the potential.
The claim is that the North Koreans are helping them develop nuclear technology and fuel.
The reason for Syria's refusal to permit IAEA inspections is to cover up the role of North Korea and the presence of the nuclear centers.
The reason Israel bombed Syria on September 6 2007 was to make a point before there was nuclear fuel on site. After the arrival of fuel an attack would have had a devastating effect on the entire region including Turkey Iraq Iran.
Bottom line: Syria must permit an inspection.

Shame on you, Mohamed El Baradei.
What a sham.

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Deal is Close With Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like a deal is in the works - maybe even as early as Friday if you trust Lebanese news.
A deal between Israel and Hezbollah - with the Germans in the middle.

The deal, which has also been confirmed by Israeli sources, would involve a prisoner exchange. One source, Zvi Goldwasser, is paying very close attention to the deal - it involves his son.
Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, the two Israeli soldiers captured on July 12, 2006 which started the 34 day war between Israel and Hezbollah would be returned to Israel.

Notorious Hezbollah terrorist Samir Kuntar will be part of the exchange package. Israel has been holding on to Kuntar as their last possible chip with which to bargain for Ron Arad, captured twenty-two years ago. But it has become clear to Israeli Prime Minister Olmert that Hezbollah has no new information about Arad.

So Kuntar will be exchanged along with four live Lebanese prisoners captured in 2006.
There is no information as to whether the Israelis are still alive or dead.
Either way, they will be turned over to Israel.

The exchange will take place in Germany.
Israel does not want to encourage a Hezbollah celebration in Southern Lebanon, near the Israeli border.

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Egypt Critiques Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I am fascinated when one Muslim leader criticizes another Muslim leader.
This internal critique is one of the best ways we in the West have for looking at the Muslim world and understanding the real tensions within.

The foreign minister of Egypt must have exceeded his boiling point to publicly dress down Iran as he did yesterday.
Ahmed Aboul Gheit made it very clear that Iranian involvement in the Region has not been "positive."
He said that the influence of Iran in Lebanon and with the Palestinian has been for the good of Iran and not for the betterment of the Region.
He wanted to make it clear to Iran that Egypt is looking out for the Region.

In his own words Aboul Gheit said:
"The political cards which Iran holds ... it holds out of a desire to defend Iranian interests. It might be Iran's right to try, but Egypt has a right to defend Arab territory."

"You now find that Iran is on a surge and it imagines that it is able to influence the region. Perhaps they can influence the region, but we always say to our friends in Iran: 'Let the influence on the region be positive.'"

He said that the Iranians are fighting the Americans and need cards to play the game. "This has a negative effect on the Palestinian question, definitely, and in Lebanon to some extent."

Egypt is not mincing any words.
Egypt is telling Iran to butt out and mind their own business.

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LA Lakers Come to Sderot
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles visited the embattled Israeli city of Sderot on Friday.
Good for him.

Sderot is the target of relentless rocket attacks and mortar attacks and bombings all launched into Israel by Hamas from Gaza.

When the mayor of a huge city like Los Angeles comes to Sderot he is not merely paying a visit, he is making a statement.

Villaraigrosa came to Sderot the morning after the LA Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics for the World Basketball Championships.

Israelis are wild about basketball, NBA basketball is almost a religion in Israel. The mayor came bearing special gifts - Lakers jerseys.

The national press had a photo of Villaraigrosa giving a smiling Eli Moyal, the beleaguered mayor of Sderot, a Kobe Bryant jersey.

That small but significant gesture was a huge shot in the arm for Sderot.

For a short moment the residents of Sderot were no longer victims.

For a short moment the residents of Sderot were transported to a different world --- they were Lakers fans.

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One Year After Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the first anniversary of the Hamas coup in Gaza.
One year since Hamas emerged victorious over Fatah in Gaza.
Unlike many anniversaries, this anniversary is worth noting.
Hamas, of course, will be celebrating.

Some interesting statistics about Gaza:
70% of Gazans would prefer to live anywhere in the world, just not in Gaza
70% of Gazans are on welfare
60% of Gazans earn less than $2 dollars a day

Gaza is a dictatorship.
Gaza has no industry and Hamas does not govern.
Gazans live entirely on handouts from abroad, with the most significant allocations coming from Iran.

Gaza was never the lap of luxury.
Gaza under Hamas is the epitome of squalor.
Until Hamas is ousted that will not change.

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Ghadaffi on Obama
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi spoke yesterday at an event celebrating the 39th anniversary of the US leaving Libya.
Ghadaffi took the opportunity to speak his mind about Barack Obama

Ghadaffi said that if elected president, Obama would have an inferiority complex because he is black.
He said that if elected, Obama might "behave worse than whites."
He called Obama "Our brother, the Kenyan with American nationality."

"We still hope he will be proud of Africa and change America and free America of its past policy, namely with the Arabs."

"Obama offered $300 billion in aid to Israel and more military support. He avoided talking about Israel's nuclear weapons."

"We suspect he may fear being killed by Israeli agents and meet the same fate as Kennedy when he promised to look into Israel's nuclear program."

I bring these quotes to show you how warped the Arab perspective is.
The $300 billion is total fabrication.
The idea of an assassination by Israel is a throwback to the conspiracy theory. The notion that Obama would have an inferiority complex is incorrect social psychology and shows how little the leader of Libya knows about America.

Bottom line is that Ghadaffi hopes that Obama will be proud of Africa.
Interestingly, Ghadaffi referred to Obama as a "Kenyan" and as "Our brother."
It would have been much more powerful and laudatory had Ghadaffi used the term "son of Africa."

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Syria Does Not Want Peace
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Just to set the record straight:
There is little chance of a real peace treaty between Israel and Syria.

Here is what the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal al-Mekdad said yesterday: "I hope Israel responds to the requirements of peace, which are the end of the occupation of Palestine and the establishment of a Palestinian state, restoration of the Syrian Golan and pull out of remaining occupied Lebanese territory ... Our goal is an Israeli withdrawal from all the lands of the Syrian Republic. This is the basis for launching direct talks."

In other words:
Israel, get out of the Golan - and then we can have negotiations.
The rest of his comments are just bluster.

It is essential to realize is that Syria does not want to give anything.
Syria just wants to receive.
Syria just wants the Golan Heights.
Then, as far as Syria is concerned, whatever happens, happens and whatever doesn't happen, doesn't happen.

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Obama and the Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

For a few days now I have been thinking about the speech Barack Obama delivered at the AIPAC convention in Washington
and about his follow up interview on CCN
and about the follow up to the follow by Obama staff and their quick response qualifying the statement "eternal capital" in reference to Jerusalem and Israel.

The Arab press was shocked by the Obama statement.
One after the other they could not believe Obama would say that.
After all, Obama was their candidate.

Some papers referred to the entire episode as a slap in the face to Islam.
Some papers emphasized his status as a murated an apostate, someone who was once a Muslim and has now left the fold.
Being an apostate is a crime punishable by death in Islam.

Even the characters who originally endorsed Obama were baffled.
Hamas and Hezbollah were shocked - Hamas really does not understand America and does not realize that because Obama disagrees with Bush it does not necessarily follow that he will break off a historic and special relationship with Israel.

One prominent Arabic website put it in perspective for the Arab world by saying: "They forgot that he is an American Zionist who turned his back on Islam and that he is hostile to Islam more than the infidels the Christians and the Jews."

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New Trilateral Talks
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is proposing trilateral talks between Israel the Palestinians.
Proposing is a nice way of saying that trilateral talks are a forgone conclusion.

Israel and the Palestinians will talk and the United States will moderate.
Actually, Condi Rice will be the moderator. The first set will take place at the beginning of next week. Rice departs for the Region on Saturday night.

Why trilateral talks?
Because:
The United States does not trust that bilateral talks will work.
The United States wants to turn up the pressure in order to reach an agreement.
Both Israel and the Palestinians will be forced into positions that they would not have agreed on in bilateral talks.
The United States has a good idea of what the final agreement should look like and will work to make sure that it does look that way.

One thing is certain:
Both Israelis and Palestinians will be unhappy with the talks and with the results.

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Maliki Vists Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not follow the Persian news, so here I am to provide an important newsbreak - an item that has not yet been picked up by Western media.

Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, visited Iran on Saturday.
Al Maliki came to talk about the upcoming US/Iraq security agreement.
The objective of this agreement is to maintain a United States presence in Iraq for the coming years - even after a US withdrawal.

Iran is against this agreement, of course.
Iran wants the US out Iraq ASAP.
The US wants to be able to monitor events on the ground, to be able to check on and maybe even respond to and prevent things from getting out of hand.

Iran does not and probably never will get it.
Iran thinks that this move by the United States is the height of arrogance.
Call it what you want, Iran is one of the big reasons the United States wants to keep a small force in the region.

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UN Human Rights Council
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It is about time.
The United States has formerly declared that they are removing themselves from the United Nations Council on Human Rights.

The Council meets in Geneva and was created two years ago.
It is composed of 47 members.
The United States is not a member, the United States has observer status.

The US would often voice an opinion against atrocities.
That was a problem.
The Council is controlled by many of the worst human rights abusers in the world. The lock on the majority comes from the Arabs, Muslims and Africans.

The main objective of the Council is not to criticize Israel and but to protect human rights and advocate for human rights - which is used an entree to criticize Israel.

Ironically, some of the worst human rights abusers voted for the establishment of the Council on Human rights - Burma, China, Cuba, Ethiopia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and Zimbabwe.

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Conflict Emerges in the Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There is real conflict emerging in the Arab world.

One end of the spectrum:
Yesterday King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia called on Islam to embrace its moderate side and reject extremism.
He warned of radicalism and extremism in Islam.

Yesterday Abdullah and Saudi Arabia opened the Mecca Conference, a gathering of 500 Muslims from 50 countries.
The objective is to create a framework to dialogue with Jews and Christian.

In his opening remarks King Abdullah said: "You have gathered today to tell the whole world that ... we are a voice of justice and values and humanity, that we are a voice of coexistence and a just and rational dialogue."

The other end of the spectrum:
Dr. Ayman Zawahiri delivered another speech aired on radical Muslim websites.
During the 11 minute clip he called for increased extremism and violence.
He called President Mubarak of Egypt a traitor and called for attacks against leaders of countries leaning toward the West, toward the US and toward Israel.

The only way to stem the tide of Islamic Extremism is through the involvement of the Arab leadership - there is no doubt about that.
That day may soon be upon us.

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Al Qaeda and Women
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Dr. Ayman Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second in line, is really starting to annoy people.
And right now, most of those people are women.

Zawahiri is continuing with his on-line question and answer forum, which seems to be meeting his and al Qaeda's needs - recruitment.
In his most recent response to questions he made it very clear that Al Qaeda has no place for women.
According to Zawahiri women belong at home, women are there to help support the shahid and to raise the children.

Problem is, there are many women shahid nowadays - not in al Qaeda, but throughout the Muslim Fundamentalist world.
Since that audio was released the web has been full of women lamenting that they cannot join the jihad - entire websites are dedicated to the idea of women and jihad.

The historical reality is that women really do not listen to the al Qaeda credo.
In Iraq, since 2003, there have been 20 female suicide bombers.
In Israel, since 2001, there have been 11 Palestinian female suicide bombers.

I wish that more women would listen to Zawahiri.
Detecting female suicide bombers is much more difficult than detecting male bombers.

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Christians Attacked Again in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I am looking for coverage of the anti-Christian activities taking place in Gaza.
The Al Manara compound and school in Gaza is owned by the Baptist Bible Society.
On Saturday the Christian compound was attacked and a school bus was stolen. It was a terrorist attack.

The Christian community has been victim to several brutal attacks recently. This bus incident is just the last in a series. Terrorists have bound and beaten a guard. Terrorists have burnt book stores as well as the books inside.

I have not heard the voices of Christians around the world raised in protest.
I have not heard Christian voices decry this atrocity.
Does the Christian world not know what is happening? Do they not care? Do they think that by raising their voices they might cause more harm - more harm than has already been perpetrated.

I am reminded of a quote from Heinrich Heine:

"Where they burn books, they will ultimately also burn people."

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Birth Rates
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Arafat used to say that the secret weapon of the Palestinian people was - the Palestinian womb.
He was saying that natural Arab population growth will easily and quickly outstrip the Jewish birthrate in Israel.

Arafat's argument was often sited by fear mongers predicting the demise of Israel.
They claimed that the onslaught of Arabs would erode the democratic nature of Israel.
It has always been a problematic argument.
In findings made public this week it appears that the evidence is pointing the other way.

The rule in population studies is the wealthier and better educated a community, the fewer the children.
The only exception to that rule is the Jewish population in Israel.
The new findings tell us that as Arab lives in Israel improve they are having fewer children - and at the same time Jews are having more children.

The Jerusalem study shows that between 2000 and 2006 the Arab rate of reproduction fell from 4.30 per family to 4.
During that same period the Jewish birth rate rose from 3.7 to 3.9.

Those are very important and impressive statistics.

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Work Accidents in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There was an explosion in Gaza City on Saturday night.
One person was killed, 16 were wounded.
The explosion did not come from an Israeli helicopter or gunship.

A Hamas terrorist blew himself up while preparing a bomb.
He's dead, 16 of his family and friends, people in his home in Gaza City that day, are wounded.
The report of the explosion came from the medical people. It seems that the best sources for these "work accidents," as they are called are the medical professionals.

Hamas leaders are blaming Israel.
But if you look at the situation seriously, you will discover that these "work accidents" actually claim many Palestinian lives.
Call it irony, call it a prophetic twist.
Call it what it is - a terrorist murderer kills himself and injures his own innocent family.

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Not Newsworthy
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

These are stories that did not make the news.
But should have.

During the 7 day period from May 22nd thru May 29th - 97 rockets fell on Israel.
The rockets were all shot from Gaza.
17 were Qassam rockets, crude yet very effective weapons.
79 were mortars.
1 was a Grad.

97 rockets were launched by Gaza onto Israel - and Israel held back and did not retaliate. Israel did conduct a few operations against the terrorist infrastructure, and guessed what Israel uncovered. A grenade launcher and an anti tank missile deliberately placed in a schoolyard - yes, in a schoolyard. And that same week a few Palestinian terrorists were shot as they tried to infiltrate into Israel.

Why did these stories not make the news?
Because they are expected and commonplace.
It is acceptable for Israel to be the target of almost 100 rocket attacks per week.
It is acceptable that Palestinian terrorists hide their weapons among children.

That is the kind of a world in which we live.
That saddens me.

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First Female Jewish Arab Ambassador
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

When does the appointment of a female ambassador become newsworthy?
When she's a Jewish woman, it becomes a little newsworthy.
When she's a Jewish woman appointed to be an ambassador from Bahrain, that's very newsworthy.

I wrote about this a few months ago when it was just a rumor - now it's fact.
For the first time in history an Arab country has been named not only a female ambassador, but a Jewish female ambassador.
Her name is Huda Nunu

The King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, appointed Nunu on Wednesday to be Bahrain's new ambassador to the Washington.
Nunu is a businesswoman who splits her time between London and Bahrain.
Nunu has been a member of the Shura Council, a 40 person Bahraini sort of their House of Lords, for the past four years.
Nunu is 43 years old and has two children.

In Bahrain there are only 50-60 Jews belonging to seven families. There is a synagogue and there is a Jewish cemetery. As a group, the Jews of Bahrain are a very wealthy community and they try to maintain a low profile.

Nunu's appointment is a brilliant political move.
It shows that Bahrain is open to reform.
It shows that Bahrain is open to minorities including Jews and women.
Bahrain is host to the United States 5th Fleet and this appointment can only help Bahrain expand their commercial dealings with the US.

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Carter Does It Again
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jimmy Carter did it again - this time at the Hay Festival in Wales.

Carter was a special guest on the literary end of the festival. During a press conference, after being asked how he thought the conflict with Iran should be handled, the former president cum world human rights champion let loose.
Carter used this platform to wail and flail at countries with nuclear weapons.

Carter enumerated.
He said the US has 15000 nuclear weapons, Russia has a similar number, the United Kingdom has hundreds and Israel has over 150.
And, yes, of course, it is all the fault of Israel.

Carter condemned.
He lambasted Israel for not permitting Gazans to enter Israel freely. He termed it "one of the greatest human rights crimes now existing on earth."

Carter seems to have conveniently forgotten that Israel has a significant border with Gaza because the people of Gaza want to murder Israelis. The border helps prevent them from coming into Israel. It does not stop them from the daily sport of lofting rockets from Gaza to Israel.

But we must remember - Carter was being asked about Iran when he went off of these tangent tirades. Once again, proof about how way off base he is in his thinking and analysis.

For Jimmy Carter murdering and terrorizing innocent Israeli Jews is not considered a great human rights crime.

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Analyze Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Let's analyze Syria.

Let's look at the tensions and tradeoffs Syria is currently confronting.

First: Lebanon - Syria has enormous interests in Lebanon and wants to maintain them. Syria is willing to scale down and lessen the involvement but only temporarily. Syria has no interest in giving up influence over Lebanon.
To Syria, Lebanon is a province of Syria.

Second: Iran - Syria is beholding to Iran and needs Iranian investments and support. Even if Syria wanted to divorce from Iran it would be impossible, the connections are too deep and the commitments too critical to daily operations. Iran has invested in Syrian factories, infrastructure and security.

Third: Israel - Syria wants one thing from Israel and that is the Golan Heights. But Syria does not want it enough to give up ties with either Lebanon or Iran in return for the Heights.

No Arab leader would give up two known commodities for the promise of a third.
And that explains why, from the Syrian point of view, there can be no traction on the peace front with Israel.

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Al Qaeda Feeling the Heat
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda is waging a PR campaign for the hearts and minds of Muslims and Arabs.

A 45 minutes sermon delivered by an al Qaeda spokesperson was released yesterday. The spokesperson ranted and raged against the West throughout most of the sermon. One special segment was reserved for Muslim leaders and Imams who teach and speak about the connections between Islam and other religions. These Imams were accused of actually luring Muslims away from Islam.

Al Qaeda is feeling the heat.
Al Qaeda knows that people are seeing the messages suggesting that monotheistic religions are all from the same root.
Al Qaeda considers that message to be blasphemous.

Al Qaeda seeks to delegitimize all forms of behavior that are not precisely prescribed by al Qaeda.
And that includes other forms of behaved sanctioned by Islamic law.

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Peace With Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It is important that Syria and Israel are meeting to discuss peace.
It is important even though, ultimately, the discussions will not lead to peace.

Let's look at this for what it really is and what it is not:
# 1: There is so much baggage brought to the discussion table that there is no way either side can meet the other side's minimum requirements for a peace deal.
# 2: It is not really a peace negotiation, the parties are not speaking to one another, they are using a third party intermediary, Turkey.
# 3: Peace with Israel is not in the interest of Syria.
# 4: Syria will not and cannot disengage from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
# 5: Syria will not and cannot normalize relations with Israel.

So if these aren't peace discussions, what are they:
# 1: It is not war. War is something Syria does not want and cannot afford. A war would result in the ousting of President Bashar Assad from his post and could jeopardize the entire regime.
# 2: It is Syria's way to lay claim to the Golan Heights. For that, Syria is willing to enter into third party negotiations with Israel.
# 3: It is Israel's way of telling Syria that in order to receive the Golan Heights they will have to swear not to attack Israel. Israel needs real assurances from Syria and real movement away from Iran. That will not come.

So where does this all lead?
To a situation in which Israel is no closer to peace with Syria, but Syria and Assad are farther away from an Israeli attack.

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Peace Index is Upside Down
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In a new study on peace called the Global Peace Index Israel ranked 136 out of 140 countries.

The study was conducted by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
The think tank judged each country on how it approaches peace-related issues including crime, human rights, relations with neighboring countries and foreign policy.

The number 1 ranking went to Iceland, followed by Denmark, Norway and New Zealand. France came in at 36, England came in at 49. The US ranked 97, last year they were 96. Iran was ranked at 105, Russia squeezed in at 131, Lebanon at 132 and North Korea at 133. Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia were at the lowest end of the list with Iraq taking placing last at 140.

There is something wrong with these kinds of studies.
The Institute claims that the emphasis is on the need to change the status quo and to stabilize governments and business.
The reality is that those countries working hardest to pursue peace and stabilize unstable parts of the world are far from the top of the index.

The Global Peace Index demonstrates a real bias against successful Western democracies.

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Iran Arrests Bahai
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranians have arrested six leaders of the Bahai.
Bahai is a religion that split off from Shiite Islam and has been outlawed in Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
In Iran it is permitted to persecute Bahai and they are often executed after being arrested.

There are about 300,000 Bahai who live in Iran and about 5 million across the globe. These 6 leaders now under arrest in Iran represent not just the local leadership but also international Bahai leadership, a faith that embraces peace.

Arrest and intimidation.
This is a classic example of how Iran handles people who are different.
The idea now is to intimidate the 300,000 Bahai still living in Iran.

Forget all the rhetoric from Ahmadinejad about freedom and people's rights.
In Iran, you do it the mullah's way or you hit the highway to prison.

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Lebanese Talks Fail: Hezbollah Says No Way
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Lebanese have finally begun talking to each other.

The talks, which are sponsored and hosted by Qatar, took place on Saturday.
One side is supportive of the government, the other side is Hezbollah.
It is an attempt to resolve past hostilities and prevent future violence between the militias.

Last week after a cease fire was negotiated with the help of the Prime Minister of Qatar, Hezbollah agreed to come to the talks.
Of course, the agreement also meant that Hezbollah got everything they wanted.
The hope was that once in Qatar Hezbollah could be pressured to compromise.

False hope, it seems.
Hezbollah flatly refused to disarm claiming they need weapons to fight Israel. The problem is that Hezbollah is using their weapons to kill and intimidate the Lebanese.

What surprises me is this misread of Hezbollah by Qatar.
I would expect unrealistic expectations from the United States, not from an Arab country hoping to become a leading influence in the region.

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Obama Took Offense
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Candidate Barack Obama took offense at the comments made by President George Bush in front of the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
The president's comments warned about talking to terrorists.

The reference seemed to be about Obama - but it was not.
Yes, Obama wants to even the playing field and talk to Syria, Iran and North Korea. But no, Obama does not want to talk with Hamas. He has maintained that position from the start.

So why does Barack Obama think that George Bush was speaking about him?
It is all about a basic insecurity over the policy of talking with your enemies and about reinventing that particular diplomatic wheel.

Bush was referencing an ex-president who was just in the region talking to Hamas in Syria. An ex-president who laid a wreath at the grave of Yasser Arafat.
He was talking about former President Jimmy Carter who strongly believes in talking to terrorists.

A world of advice to the candidate: If you are insecure in your own foreign policy, the people will have a hard time believing in you.

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The New Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A high level delegation of the Arab League is in Lebanon right now.
Their mission is to convince Hezbollah to back down.
They want the situation in Lebanon to return to the status quo.

Which status quo? The status quo of before last week's flare up which threatens to spiral out of control and weaken and even destroy Lebanon as we know it.

The Secretary General of the Arab League, Amir Moussa, and the Prime Minister of Qatar have been meeting with Hezbollah leaders.

And what is the response of the deputy head of Hezbollah, Sheik Naim Kassem, to these leaders - he says he wants to return Lebanon to normal.

And what is normal for Hezbollah and Kassem?
Normal to them means returning Lebanon to the civil war of the 1980's.

Hezbollah really wants to intimidate the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah wants to control the Lebanese government through threats and intimidation. And that is exactly what has happened. This conflict erupted because the government squelched Hezbollah's independent phone system and took back the Beirut airport by sacking Hezbollah's Airport security chief.

And yesterday the Lebanese government voted to reinstate the airport chief and permit Hezbollah to run their own phone system.

Score another one for Hezbollah.

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Hurt Israel At All Costs
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Defaming Israel has become a Palestinian pastime.
Taking advantage of humanitarian gestures has become a Palestinian sport.

Examples of chemical explosives being smuggled into Gaza under the guise of food aide in flour and sugar bags are numerous.

Stories about Palestinians approaching border crossings under the guise of medical treatment and them turning themselves into human bombs are almost commonplace.

Here is a new twist.

In a story that spread like wildfire in news accounts around the world it was reported that a man Muhammad al Harrani, the father of 6 children, died of cancer waiting for his permit to enter Israel for his treatment. His entry interview was postponed because Israel was commemorating Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Turns out, Muhammad al Harrani is still alive.

No, it was not a miracle ... yes, it was a hoax.

Sadly, it was more important for the family of al Harrani to defame Israel than it was to get needed medical treatment for a sick and dying man.

Sadly, now al Harrani will probably be denied entry into Israel.
Inevitably, Israel will be blamed for denying medical treatment to a master media manipulator.

To what depths will people sink to defame Israel and call her the oppressor?

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Lebanon vs Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

We must pay closer attention to what is happening in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, over the last few weeks, has made a bold move on the communications system of Lebanon.
Hezbollah has instituted an independent and parallel telephone system throughout Lebanon.
The objective is to be off the radar of Lebanese intelligence and of all Western intelligence services.
Hezbollah does not want their conversations tapped.

The implications of this move go far beyond a new and separate telephone system.
Establishing their own phone system is tantamount to creating an independent government apparatus over all of Lebanon, not just over the southern areas that are, de facto, under Hezbollah control control.

The Lebanese government struck back.
They dismantled the telephone system and fired the head of security at Beirut Airport who was a Hezbollah operative. The government took back the airport.
Now militias have taken up sides and taken to the streets.
Now the army is getting involved.

It is about time - Hezbollah must be stopped.
Lebanon has a history of weakness when it comes to their internal defense.
Lebanon does not take their country back from encroachers.

Hezbollah wants to turn the entire country of Lebanon into a Shiite state sponsored by Iran.
The only way to prevent from happening is to stand up against Hezbollah.

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World Leaders Praise Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In honor of Israel's 60th birthday there have been a great many speeches and statements by leaders from around the world.
These tributes have furthered my realization that the vast majority of the world, even countries that have been traditionally critical of Israel, recognize Israel's vital contributions and role in the Western world.

The one statement that gave me pause, however, came from Israel's own president, Shimon Peres.

Peres said that he had not anticipated the Kassam rockets.
He was referring to the cycle begun when Israel withdrew from Gaza leaving Gaza under the control of the Palestinians that saw the rise of Hamas to power enabling a relentless showering of rockets from Gaza into Israeli communities that border and abut the area. The most noted of all is the city of Sdreot.

Not to have anticipated the Kassam rockets is a major flaw.
Israeli leaders, especially seasoned leaders like Shimon Peres, should have realized that rockets were the only way for Palestinians from Gaza to strike at Israel. The shame of it all is that Israel still has no response, no answer, no solution, to this initial mistake and miscalculation. And Sderot is still suffering.

One of the great elements of Israeli society has been creative responses to new challenges.
Where it that spirit of creativity when it comes to helping Sdrerot?

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Peace @ 60 ?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I do not normally quote from contemporary politicians as examples of profound, significant or insightful thought.
Gone are the days when politicians were great orators.
As always, however, there is an exception to the rule.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said something at Israel's Memorial Day ceremony, which falls on the eve of Israel's 60th birthday, that struck me as so important that I am quoting it and want to underscore it.

Olmert said: "I cannot ignore the deep moral abyss between us and our enemies. We do not deny the right of any people and state to live in peace."

Olmert simply but powerfully encapsulated the chasm that divides the basic value system of Israel from that of her enemies.

Golda Meir said it so well when she said "We will have peace with the Arabs when they love their children more than they hate us."

After 60 years it is clear that Israel will not be pushed into the sea.

But 60 years later Israel still faces significant threats.

Israel is threatened because of a huge gap in basic human values - mostly about love and about hate.

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The Pope & The Archbishop of Canterbury
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope and the Archbishop of Canterbury met on Monday.
That's historic.
Henry VIII broke with the Pope because of dictates regarding divorce and created the Anglican Church - today there are 77 million Anglicans worldwide.

It's also contemporary.
The two spoke about Christian-Muslim interactions.
This past February the Archbishop touched on the subject saying that some Sharia, some Islamic laws, would be adopted in England.

There is significant tension between the Pope and the Archbishop and this comment just exacerbated the situation. The Anglican Church already has women priests and homosexual bishops. Now add on their attitude toward Islam.

Today the Pope's people were quiet about the meeting and the Anglicans termed it "warm and friendly."
But in March the Vatican's Cardinal in charge of Islamic relations called the Archbishop of Canterbury "naive" for saying what he said.

Oh, to have been a fly on the wall during that meeting.

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Some Mourn Israel @60
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Every year for the past six years there is a conference to mourn Israel's creation.
The conference, organized by the Palestinian Committee in Europe and the Palestinian Right to Return Committee, is held in Europe.

The conference is timed to coincide with Israel's Independence Day.

This year is no different.

These are quotes from Sheik Rayid Sellah, head of the Islamic Movement Northern Branch in Israel.

"Your homes await you ... The mosques and churches, hyssop and peppermint herbs await you as well. They symbolize the roots and identity, the history and culture, they are our future."

"We have come to deliver a message of yearning and love from each grain of sand in the Galilee and the Negev, the Triangle and the Coastal areas, and Jerusalem. This grain of sand tells you - don't leave me, I expect to see you very soon at the dawn of the refugees' return."

"The city of Jerusalem is calling you to salvage it from the Judaization it is undergoing and from what the Israeli government is doing."

These are very powerful words.

These words do not speak of olive branches or appeasement or a desire to live together in peace.

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MI 6 Head to Visit Israel On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The head of MI 6 is coming to visit Israel.
MI 6 is the British equivalent of the US CIA or the Israeli Mossad.

He is coming to get a briefing from Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad, about new intelligence concerning Iran's nuclear development.
The idea is to try to convince the West of the seriousness of Iran's project.
This new intel is said to be very convincing.

Israel has always taken a more serious approach to the Iranian nuclear program than other Western countries.
Israel has always maintained that the reality of a nuclear Iran is closer than other Western intelligence has predicted.

This little visit has the potential to make a big difference.
The West may now be convinced of just how dangerous Iran wants to become and how close Iran is to achieving that goal.

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The Conference to Aid Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Donors Conference to Aid the Palestinians just wrapped up in London.
Like at all conferences, the interesting stories were not agenda items.
The most interesting story to emerge here is that Turkey used the conference to deliver messages between the Syrians and the Israelis.

A second interesting story is that the British hosts of the conference chastised the Arab League for failing to support the Palestinians.
Arab League members pledged $717.1 million to the Palestinians for this year's budget and have paid only $123 million.
And that money came from only three countries - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria.
No other Arab League countries have come to the aid of the Palestinians.
This is nothing new, last year the Arab League succeeded in giving only a third of what they pledged to the Palestinians.

Israel is donating millions of dollars per month in medicine and food necessities.
But not the Arab world.
All this talk about Arab unity is simply a myth.

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Female Jewish Ambassador from Bahrain
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain is a very moderate Arab island country.
It is run by a King and King Hamas bin Isa al- Khalifa, controls every aspect of Bahrain society.

Imagine my surprise to learn that the leading candidate for the new ambassador from Bahrain to Washington DC from is not only a woman named Huda Nono, but a Jewish woman.

Nono is a member of the Upper Shura Council.
Nono attained her position by replacing her cousin on the Council.
The Upper Council is like the British House of Lords, it consists of 40 people, all of whom are appointed by the king.
The Lower House consists of 40 elected officials and has no real power.

Some interesting statistics:
There are 11women on the Shura Council.
There are 7 Jewish families living in Bahrain today, totaling 50-60 people.
The Jews of Bahrain arrived in the 19th century and are involved in business and banking.
Nono splits her time between Bahrain and London.

Who would have thunk it?

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Ahmadinejad Visits India
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and India are about to sign an important natural gas deal that will establish a pipeline from Iran to India.
The United States is livid.

Ahmadinejad visited India on Tuesday to discuss the deal.
India is energy starved and needs it from any source it can get.

The US cannot insist that India back away from doing business with Iran, but they can and did beg India to at least link their gas deal to establishing international monitoring or to stopping the nuclear program in Iran. After all, Iran needs the business and may have agreed just to get the deal. But India was too frightened and went head without any pre-conditions.

Now India has become complicit in the policies of Iran.
India could have done something to aid the international community, but chose not to.
Now India has become complicit in the policies of Iran.

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What is Wrong With This Picture
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian judges have convicted and sentenced a Palestinian man to death.
He will face a firing squad in the West Bank city of Hebron.

The Palestinian was convicted of helping the Israelis find terrorists.
The crime was officially called collaboration with the Israelis.
The indictment recorded that this man assisted Israelis and aided them in finding four Palestinian terrorists.

The Palestinians have sworn to avenge those who collaborate with Israel. Yesterday's decision is not an isolated case - there are numerous examples of this type of justice including one where a Palestinian was executed by a gang while he was strapped to an x-ray table.

We have a problem here.
The Palestinians are mandated with the task of catching terrorists.
They are not.
So Israel is doing its best to find the leaders of these terrorist groups and Israelis need local Palestinians to assist them.

Any momentum for a peace agreement between Palestinian and Israeli leadership is predicated on stopping the terror.
And yet, Palestinians are executing the very people who are trying to stop terror.
What is wrong with this picture?

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N Koreans Killed in Syrian Nuke Site
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Japanese news network NHK came out with an important report today.
A South Korean intelligence source informed NHK that 10 North Koreans were killed on the morning of September 6, 2007 when Israel bombed the Syrian nuclear plant.
In fact, intelligence pictures show that the Syria facility was a near exact replica of North Korean sites.

Why is the death of 10 North Koreans significant?
It shows that the North Koreans were there, in Syria, and we know that they were certainly not there as a cleaning crew.

At the time, both the North Korean and the Syrians disavowed any connection.
This was a huge slap in the face to Syria, a humiliation, a defeat the Syrians needed to explain away.
So the Syrians and the North Korean organized protests for PR purposes.
They coordinated spin intended to deflect the responsibility and shift blame, making the incident a pure act of aggression by Israel against an Arab country.

The discovery that there were actually North Koreans at the Syrian nuclear, corroboration that came from an outside, non-Western source is another blow to the Syrian attempt to save face.

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Ahmadinejad Is very Busy
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is very busy lately.
Next week he will be in Pakistan for only a few hours.
His objective there will be to extend the diplomatic ground work and strengthen the foundation he is building for an anti-Western, anti-American block.

Officially Ahmadinejad is there to discuss economic relations.
But Ahmadinejad can't go anywhere without lobbying for his greater goal of ousting US hegemony over the world. He will also propose that Pakistan move away from friendship with the United States and move towards a stronger relationship with Iran.

Ahmadinejad is trying to pry apart US strategic partnerships and then entice countries into regional alliances that are anti-American.
That is exactly what he hoped to do this week when he called the leaders of many neighboring countries and told them that the "Americans as well as their allies are facing doom."

For example, when Ahmadinejad met with the Syrian foreign minister he repeated this and warned him to make certain Syria was not lured into the US web of lies.

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Jordan Gets US Help
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The US just gave the Jordanians $237,000 worth of equipment.
This is the largest gift of its kind to any country.

What possessed the United States to bestow this grant upon Jordan?
What kind of gift is it?
It is a gift of forensic computers - anti-terror software, hardware and personnel training.

The objective is to track and identify terror networks that are using the World Wide Web.
The system is highly sophisticated and it is a very important tool in fighting terror today.

The Jordanians have climbed aboard and joined the West in a world wide fight against Islamic extremism.
The Islamists want to overthrow the monarchy of Jordan as much as they want to unseat US hegemony over the world. The Jordanians know this and also know that the Islamists have more of a chance of hurting them locally and stirring up a mess in Jordan than they do by attacking the United States.

In essence, the United States gave Jordan a welcoming gift.
Welcome aboard Jordan.

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White House Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has been very busy trying to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians this week.

Both Abdullah, King of Jordan and Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority paid visits to the West Wing and to the Oval Office, each on consecutive days.
At the same time Secretary of State Condi Rice was in the Middle East talking to the Israelis and other parties in the Region.

The objective of the White House is to apply pressure in order to bring about an agreement. Bush will be in Israel to celebrate Israel’s 60th Anniversary. While there he will convene a mini summit on the peace he is trying to force through.

The biggest stumbling block in Bush's way is neither Palestinian leadership nor Israeli leadership.
It is Hamas.

Hamas gets off on attacking Israel and undermining the other Palestinians. Hamas can never have a state - that is clear to everyone except Hamas.
And yet, no Palestinian leader and no other Arab leader is willing to risk ousting Hamas.

Until Hamas comes under control there can really be no progress on the peace front.
That is clear to everyone except Rice and Bush.

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Hamas Wins in Hebron
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

There were student council elections yesterday at Hebron University.
Hamas won 15 seats, Fatah won 14 seats.
A close call, but Hamas still comes out the winner.

But get this:
Polls in Gaza showed that Hamas' popularity were slipping and are now on the increase.
This student election, albeit in Hebron, points in another direction for college aged voters, it shows that they prefer Hamas if only by a hair.

Is Hebron that far from Gaza?
Hamas in Hebron does not have a majority, but it is increasing in popularity, especially among students.

Fatah can read the handwriting on the wall.
So Fatah is embarking on a significant effort to restore status as the overwhelming popular power.
All the while Hamas is trying to work their magic to convince Palestinians that they are the true leaders of the Palestinians.

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Carter And Obama
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It is primary day in Pennsylvania.
Everyone, it seems, is holding their collective breath.
Everyone, world over.
Who will win this critical primary?
Who will win this critical election?

Even Jimmy Carter, who until now has not endorsed a candidate, is talking about Obama.

Carter reported that as he traveled throughout Asia and the Middle East the talk of the towns was about Barack Obama.
Carter was referring to Ghana, Nigeria, and Nepal.
"World opinion is strongly supportive of Obama, that's all we hear," was his exact quote.

It strikes me as very interesting that these countries have something to say about our election, that they are thinking about the Pennsylvania primary, about 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and the presidential election.

But honestly - I care about as much for their opinion as I do about the opinion of former President Jimmy Carter.
I care about insight, not about opinion.

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Israel Opens Mosque in Hospital
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The most amazing thing happened in an Israeli hospital this week.
It happened at Rambam Hospital in Haifa, named after the great Jewish scholar and physician from the Muslim world, Rabbi Moshe ben Maimon.

The hospital opened a mosque.
The mosque conforms to religious standards.
The mosque has a separate section for men and a separate section for women.

Opening a mosque shows the real Israel at its best.
Israel is an open and free society and respects minority rights.
Can you imagine an Arab nation having a synagogue in a hospital?
Can you imagine an Arab nation sponsoring a synagogue anywhere?

For those who do not know, Israel really is a special place.

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It's Crazy Yeh?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Israeli oil contractors were killed in a terror attack.
The men worked at Nahal Oz, the oil depot that supplies Gaza.

The terrorists were from Gaza.
The attack significantly shut down oil delivery to Gaza for a few days.
Shortly after trucks resumed their deliveries into Gaza, bringing oil for hospitals transportation needs and food supplies snipers started began to snipe at the trucks.
If that scenario seems counter productive, well, welcome to the Middle East.

Why would the Palestinians do this to their own people?
Because they want to blame Israel for not delivering the oil and because they know that most people will not connect the dots and figure out that it was the Palestinians who were preventing the oil supply from coming in.

Why else and more importantly?
Because Hamas terrorist leadership does not care one whit about the lives of their own people.

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Carter & Hamas Again
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leaders met with former US President and Nobel Laureate Jimmy Carter yesterday.
Following the meeting the Cairo office sent out a message - a self congratulatory message.

From the stand point of Hamas, meeting with Carter gave their organization both credibility and standing.
From the stand point of Hamas, meeting with Carter was the perfect counter balance to current US policy which defines Hamas as a terrorist group.

Let me be perfectly clear:
Jimmy Carter is a dope, but in this case, he is not being duped.
Carter knows what he is doing.
Carter knows he is giving Hamas standing with Europe and the Muslim world. Carter knows he is giving Hamas significant currency and presence.
It fits into Carter's greater sense of the world because the former president believes that the United States is too powerful and too much in charge.

Carter wants to even the playing field and for him, that objective is more important than preserving America.
An uneven playing field will destroy the United States and her friends.

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Ahmadinejad's Rants About 9-11
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad just called the 9-11 attacks "suspicious."

Here is the continuation of the quote:
"The Americans claimed that 3,000 people were killed in the collapse of the Twin Towers but never named the victims. However, they used this claim to justify their attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan, which resulted in the death of a million people."

Truth is all the victims were named.
2948 confirmed dead, 24 reported dead, 24 reported missing - that totals 2996. Truth is far fewer than a million people have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Where does fact start and fiction begin with the Iranian president?
For Ahmadinejad the message is what counts and truth and reality easily fall by the wayside. Ahmadinejad's message is about convincing the Muslim world of a conspiracy, about convincing them that the United States will do anything to attack and destroy Muslims - even kill their own people or make up an atrocity about 3000 deaths.

The horror of it all is that Ahmadinejad delivers a convincing message to his audience.

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Gaza is Getting Fuel
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Finally: Israel has decided to call Hamas on their lies.
The question is: Will anyone listen.

Colonel Nir Press, head of the Israeli liaison office with the Palestinians has set the record straight. "Israel has permitted the steady and continuous flow of fuel into the Gaza Strip in recent weeks."

Specifically:
- Israel has trucked in 2,200,000 liters of diesel a week - that is more than enough to power the electric power plant that provides 30% of Gaza's electricity.
- Israel permits unlimited amount of cooking gas.
- Israel permits 800,000 liters of diesel for transportation and 75,000 liters of regular gasoline for cars per week for use by hospitals, school busses, food trucks, food plants, garbage and other humanitarian purposes

Actually:
- The Palestinians have a fuel stock of 188,000 liters of diesel, they are not even using everything they are get each week.
- Hamas said that the Israelis had cut of electricity, but it was actually Hamas who cut off the 30% of electricity they contribute. The Israelis were still providing electricity and still sending their workers out to repair lines in Gaza.

It is time to call a spade a spade.

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Iran on The Security Council--Crazy
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Have they no shame.
Iran has requested a seat on the United Nations Security Council.

The Iran plan is to replace Indonesia for the Asia seat and serve in 2010 - 2012.
Perhaps the Iranians figure that since such an inordinate amount of time is spent disciplining them in the Security Council this would be the best way to prevent the Security Council from censuring and punishing them.
If they are part of the solution, they can't be the problem - so to speak.

Irony of all ironies, Iran might actually get that seat at the table.
If that should happen, it would make a mockery of the United Nations and of the Security Council which is one of the only effective - albeit partially effective - bodies in the UN.

What we are really seeing here is Iran's ability and desire to solve her diplomatic and international relations problems.
Iran is not running from problems. Iran is resolving problems by co-opting the bodies that cause them problems. Iran is using diplomatic weight to solve problems from the inside the UN.

This Iranian tactic is brilliant - and I hope it fails.

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Terror Poison Scheme Foiled
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Most of the people employed in Israeli restaurants are Arabs.
Most of the patrons in Israeli restaurants are Jews.

Imagine if terrorists infiltrated a restaurant and poisoned the customers.
That's what almost happened two days ago.

Two Arabs from Nablus, a city on the West Bank, workers in a restaurant in the city of Ramat Gan (located seconds from Tel Aviv) intended to lace a white, odorless, tasteless powder into the food they were preparing in the kitchen. The restaurant, called Express Grill, is a fast food place that usually serves lunch to hundred of patrons every lunch.

The terrorists, now under arrest, were working illegally in Israel.
They had been recruited by the Al Aqksa Brigade of Fatah.
The poison was supposed to be given to them by their Nablus handlers.
The poison material probably came in from Hezbollah.
The handlers are being sought, their identities are known.

This was very effective intelligence.
The plot was uncovered and the terrorists were captured.
The terrorists knew enough about their handlers to identify them.
The results could have been devastating.

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Carter Will Meet Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Jimmy Carter has announced his plans to visit Syria to meet with Halad Mashaal, the leader of Hamas.
Hamas officials have confirmed that the meeting will take place in Damascus.

Hamas is a terrorist organization.
Hamas figures prominently on both the White House and US State Department terrorist lists.

The State Department is saying that Carter has been in contact with them and made the proper requests. The States Department made it very clear that they do not recommend this discussion with Hamas.
One can actually argue that it is illegal to speak with Hamas if they are the enemy. Consorting with the enemy is against the law.

Carter correctly got permission from the State Department.
But he is undercutting US policy.
And he is undermining the special relationship that has been forged between Israel and the United States.
And he knows it.

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US Push for Peace
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Israeli agreement is not yet dead, but it is certainly dying.

Meetings are scheduled for the next month aimed at motivating the primary players.
The goal of all these meeting will be to breathe life into the United States brokered agreement by hammering away at Israeli and Palestinian resistance.

The Quartet, UN, US, EU and Russia, are scheduled to meet in Amman, Jordan on April 17th.
Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas is schedule to meet with George Bush in the White House on April 23rd.
Bush is scheduled to be in Israel to celebrate the 60th birthday of the state on May 14th-16th.
In a rumor circulated by Palestinian sources the US president will meet with Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian, Israeli and maybe even Saudi leaders in the port city of Sharm el Sheik on May 17th.

High level talks are on the horizon.
The United States is pushing for results - palpable results before the end of you-know-who's term in office in 2008.

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Iran - US Talks About Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Iranians announced that they received a formal note from the United States asking for a meeting.
The note was sent through the Swiss Embassy in Teheran.

In 2007 Iranian and United States diplomats met three times.
Two of the meetings were high level and involved the US ambassador to Iraq.

This past March the same Iranian delegation that met with the US ambassador to Iraq ventured to Iraq for a 4th meeting with the United States.
That meeting never happened.
The United States said that the Iranians never firmed up the meeting.

Now the United States and Iran will meet again.
They will talk about Iraq.
They will talk about how to make Iraq safer.

Iran is using Iraq.
Iran is destabilizing Iraq and the using the conflict to strike at the United States.
Toning down the tensions can only help.
Maybe, afterwards, they can talk about resolving the nuclear issue.

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Syria Is Freaking Out Over Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are at the boiling point between Syria and Israel.
Israel plans on holding a national safety exercise this coming week.
Syria thinks that the exercise is preparation for an Israeli attack against them.

The Israeli exercise, planned for Sunday through Tuesday, will include a national siren and instructions given over television and radio.
Every school and every government office will learn how to respond in case their country is attacked.
There will be training in conventional and non-conventional attacks including nuclear, biological and chemical attacks.

Syria is freaking out and is hinting at calling up army reserves and amassing troops.
Syria thinks that they need to prepare a counter attack.

One problem in the Middle East is that sometimes actions are misunderstood.
Those misunderstandings can lead to war.
Right now Syria is misreading Israel.

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PA Says No Solution to Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad was quoted on Saturday in the Arabic media as saying:
"There is no solution for the troubles in Gaza, or for the rockets being fired from it." He continued, "All we can do is transfer funds to the Gaza Strip."

True - and deeply troubling.
The PM is confirming that Palestinian leadership is not deluded about the power of Hamas. He is confirming the reality that Hamas will continue to fire at will at Israel. He is confirming that Palestinian leadership has neither the intention nor the ability to stop Hamas or alter the situation.

It is the United States that is deluded. The United States still believes that the Palestinian Authority has the power to stop the barrage of rockets shot into Israel on a daily basis.

I hope the United States reads these statements of Fayyad.
I hope the United States is capable of revising their estimate of the situation.
Only then will the United States be able to properly address the situation.

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Muslim Brotherhood Does What?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt arrested 34 members of the Muslim Brotherhood yesterday.
The arrests were made because of a textile workers strike scheduled for Sunday in Egypt.

The strike has serious reformist overtones and is actually a pro-democracy rally.
The Muslim Brotherhood has expressed support for the strike.
The question is: Why is the Muslim Brotherhood at all interested in this strike?

It doesn't make sense: The textile workers want to reform an oppressive regime and empower the people with more power in decision making and control.
The Muslim Brotherhood wants to oust the government and replace it with an Islamic caliphate.
Democracy is the furthest from the changes they want to achieve.

Here's the real reason why: The Muslim Brotherhood sees this strike as a way to drive a wedge between the Egyptian people and their leadership.
The strike is simply a convenient means to an end for the Muslim Brotherhood.

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China Cuts A Deal With Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

China is a major player in our world.
China is a self-interested player, looking out only for itself.
China thinks only of China when making international decisions.

Not surprisingly, China and Syria signed an oil refinery deal yesterday.
The original agreement was for China to build an oil refinery for Syria exactly next to the nuclear plant that Israel blew up in September of 2007.
The agreement stipulates that China will complete the refinery in 2011.
The refinery will have a refining capacity of 100,000 barrels per day.

China has accomplished two major goals.
# 1: inroads into another Arab country
# 2: another opportunity to irritate the United States and the West
More than that, China gets access to another oil reserve.

From China's point of view this was a very sly and successful agreement.

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Al Qaeda's PR Problem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri has a lot to say.
Zawahiri spent an hour and a half defending al Qaeda in a recently released audio tape responding to email questions from believers.
Zawahiri's bottom line: we do not kill innocent people and if they died it was unintended.

"We haven't killed the innocents, not in Baghdad nor in Morocco, nor in Algeria, nor anywhere else."
"If there is any innocent who was killed in the Mujahideen's operations, then it was either an unintentional error or out of necessity."

Was this pure arrogance?
It is an undisputable fact that al Qaeda policy is to target innocent people.
Why did Zawahiri really come out with these statements?
Because right now al Qaeda is suffering from a PR disaster in the Muslim world. Because right now al Qaeda is seen as murderers and trouble makers.
Because right now al Qaeda needs to resuscitate its reputation.

Who knows - this might just work.
Ayman Zawahiri is promising to keep these tapes coming.

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What Islam Really Thinks About You
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The world's leading Muslim Wahabi leader is Sheik Abdul Rahman al Barrak.
He is the leading Sunni cleric in Saudi Arabia and one of the most powerful voices in the Muslim world.

In March in a rare fatwa or religious edict, al Barrak called for the deaths of two newspaper columnists.
He called them "clerics of darkness."
He called their work heretical and said they should be put to death unless they publicly recanted their writings.

What were these heretical views?
The columnists considered questioning the established Wahabi view that Christians and Jews were unbelievers.

The West has been brainwashed to believe that Christians and Jews are seen as believers by classic Islam.
I do not think Sheik Barrak believes that way --- neither does his Wahabi sect which, by the way, includes al Qaeda.

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Abbas Calls For Protection
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas made some scary demands at the Arab League meeting held in Damascus over the week-end.

Abbas said: "We demand that our Arab brethren seriously consider offering Arab and international protection for our besieged nation."

Abbas said: that the Arab league should "[t]hink seriously of Arab and international protection for our people."

What is Abbas doing?
Even if Abbas really believes that Israel is sabotaging the peace process, he knows that the main problem facing Palestinians now is not Israel, it is Hamas. Abbas should be rallying the Arab League against Hamas not Israel.

Thankfully the Arab League member representatives are inept and cowardly and they will not pick up the gauntlet that Abbas laid down.

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Arab League: Doesn't Deliver
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League meeting in Damascus is underway - the players will get into full gear over the weekend.

Here is an inkling of what to expect:
The Palestinian Authority has already been promised $50 million a month by the Arab League. That makes $600 million for the year.
The Palestinian Authority was promised $660 million for the year last year - and less than half has been given them.
Surprising - no, actually this is rather typical for the Arab League.

There are several reason explaining why monies were promised and then neither collected nor disbursed.
# 1: the Arab League is a lot of fluff and only a little substance
# 2: the Arab Leagues speaks about the Palestinian cause, but cares very little about the Palestinians and does even less to aid them.

Seldom does anything useful come out to of the Arab League.
Arab League meetings are more about camaraderie than commitment.

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Israel's Intelligence Assessments
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A new regional security assessment has been drawn up by Israel.
The assessment was released last week - frankly, there were no surprises.

According to the 2008 Assessment:
Watch Hezbollah and Syria
Iran will continue to make progress in the area of nuclear development
Iran will be on-line in 2009
Hamas will attempt to make major inroads to the West
Hamas may attempt a takeover of the West Bank
Chances of an agreement between the PA and Israel are low

Bernard Lewis, one of the world's greatest Arabists, gave Israeli Prime Minister Olmert his own, personal assessment.
Lewis believes that the real danger in the Middle East is radical Islam.
Saudi Arabia knows it, Egypt knows it and the Gulf States know it.
Lewis advised the prime minister not to be misled by Syria - Assad is no Sadat.

Intelligence assessments are not political perspectives.
Intelligence assessments are an attempt to predict the future independent of politics.
The United States can afford to learn something here.

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Russia is Selling Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

President Mubarak of Egypt just wrapped up a trip to Russia.

The results of this trip will have an important effect on Egypt's future.

Mubarak met with both Vladimir Putin and with Dmitry Medved who replaces Putin in May.

Mubarak signed a series of agreements that will permit Russia to bid on the nearly $2 billion nuclear reactor Egypt wants to build.

Russia will sweeten their bid on the nuclear reactor by also offering to sell Egypt a slew of conventional weapons.

Selling weapons to the developing world is one of the things Russia does best.

Russia sold weapons to Iran.
Russia also developed Iran's new nuclear facility called Busher.
Russia just signed a contract with Bulgaria for a nuclear facility.
Russia needs to regenerate their stronghold in the Middle East.

During the Cold War the Russians were the dominant force in the Middle East and outfitted every country - not surprisingly, with the exception of Israel.

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Arab League Meeting in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

This week's Arab League meeting is the first ever hosted by Syria.
Usually, heads of state and high level officials attend the meeting.
This year, because it is being hosted by Syria, many Arab League members are not attending and those that come will not send high level representatives.

Two topics will be under discussion: Lebanon and the Arab League peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians.
There is little hope that anything will come from the meeting - Arab League members have little respect for Syria.

Syria says that 14 countries have responded that they will come.
The Emir of Kuwait and the Emir of Qatar have responded that they will attend.
Saudi Arabia will send a simple ambassador.
Egypt's President Mubarak will not attend and will likely send his foreign minister.
Jordan's King will not attend.
Lebanon will probably not attend and if is does it will be low level representation.

Fact is, it is even obvious to the Arab world that Syria is part of the problem - not part of the solution.

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Cheney Returns From The Middle East
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Vice President Cheney just returned from a visit to the Middle East.
Many analysts are speculating that this trip was not a success.

I disagree.

In the whirl of response surrounding the vice presidential trip almost all the discussion has focused on a single issue:

Should the United States attack Iran.

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said that an attack would be the worst thing for the US to do. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, also in the region at the very same time, said the very same thing.

Cheney's mission on this trip was to show that the US may indeed strike out at Iran. All the responses and all the comments prove that the Iranians are fearful of a US attack. That means the trip was a great success. Iran should not think they get a "pass" on this.

To quote from the Shakespearean play Hamlet Act 3:2:230
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks."

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Russia Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov has been on a trip to the Middle East.

On the itinerary were Syria and of course, Israel.
After meeting with Syrian president Bashar Assad Lavrov came away convinced that Syria is willing and able to pursue peace with Israel.

So now Moscow wants to sponsor a peace conference between Israel and Syria. The Israelis think otherwise.

On his visit to Israel Lavrov met with Israeli President Shimon Peres who told Lavrov point blank that he hopes he realizes the Israelis do not trust the Russians.

When Syria stops sending weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, that is when it will clear that the Syrians want peace.

Get with the program, Russia.

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A Blood Libel Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Antisemitism will always rear its ugly head.
But the posters now strewn all over Novosibirsk, Siberia smack of a special form of Antisemitism - Medieval Jew Hatred.

The Posters warn:
"Beware Russian parents. Keep watch over your children before the coming of April 2008, the Jewish holiday of Passover. These disgusting people still engage in ritual practice to their gods. They kidnap small children and remove some of their blood and use it to prepare their holy food (matza). They throw the bodies (of the children) out in garbage dumps."

Blood Libel, we thought, was a thing of the past - ended with the 1913 Mendel Beilis trial in Russia. We were wrong. It's 2008 and in a major capital city the idea that Jews ritually murder Christian children and use their blood to bake matza is still alive.

It is this hatred and it is these myths that power the engine of Antisemitism.
Antisemitism is not only being spread in Novosibirsk.
We need to look no further than our own back yard and the controversy swilling around the upcoming race for president of the world's greatest democracy, the United States of America.

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McCain in The Mideast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

John McCain is in the midst of his Middle East trip. He is now in Israel.

Israeli President Shimon Peres seized upon the opportunity to educate McCain. Peres told McCain "Iran is not Israel's problem alone. The combination of terror, nuclear capabilities and irresponsible leadership poses a danger to the entire world." He said "The Arab countries in the region are also fearful of Iran."

This is an essential but often overlooked component of the Iranian threat.
Most Arab countries in the region will not articulate, expressly because they are fearful, what Israel knows so well and is unafraid to admit.

McCain responded by saying that after this trip to the Middle East he is even more concerned about the Iranian threat.

It behooves all candidates vying for the position of next president of the United States to see the issues beyond Iraq in an effort to truly understand the region.
From there the candidate will have the tools to formulate realistic policy proposals to present to the voters.

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Iran's Elections For Parliament
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iran voted this week.
Surprise, surprise, the conservatives won.

The elections were for the 290 seats in the Iranian Parliament.
The reformers, those who respectfully do not 100% agree with Ahmadinejad, received about 25% of the vote - which is huge.

25% of the Iranian public actually dared to express this muted form of descent. To stand for election a candidate had to be vetted by the most conservative election board. Most if not all reformers were rejected - including the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the original of the Revolution. Imagine, the Ayatollah Khomeini's heir was not extreme enough for modern Iran.

Knows in the know, know the truth.
The sad reality is that secret ballots are the limit of acceptable resistance in Iran.

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More Pressure From Bush
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

George Bush is planning another trip to Israel and The Region in May.
That means that the president who never visited Israel until January 2008 will be paying two trips in five months.
Condi Rice is planning another trip to Israel in 9 days - two trips in one month.

On her way to Chile on Saturday Condi Rice made this statement:
"Frankly, not nearly enough has happened to demonstrate that the Israelis and the Palestinians fully understand ... that without following road map obligations and without improvements on the ground, it's very hard to sustain this process."
Rice's comment speaks volumes.

The United States is disappointed.
The United States wants to see progress on the Israeli/Palestinian peace front.
What the United States does not understand is that the problem does not lie with the Israelis and the Palestinians.
It is impossible to move ahead with peace between Palestinians and Israelis until there is some resolution among the Palestinians themselves.
Until Fatah confronts Hamas there can be no real progress on the peace front.

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Compare the Religious Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last week there was a massacre in a religious school in Jerusalem.
The terrorist was motivated by religious fervor and xenophobic hatred.

In a vigil honoring the eight victims of the massacre former Israeli Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yossef said that the greatest revenge on the enemies of Israel is to show just how much God loves the Jewish people and Israel.
Rabbi Yossef is not known for holding his tongue or pulling punches when it comes to politics and Israel's neighbors.
All rabbis who spoke at the vigil insisted that vigilantism is not acceptable.

Contrast that to the calls across the Arab world mandating the people to engage in violent acts of revenge.
There was even a story published in a Lebanese paper yesterday reporting that the real target of the terror attack last Thursday was a Chief Rabbi.

I do not know if a Chief Rabbi was the intended target.
I do know that the comparison between the speech and actions of Israel's religious and political leadership and the speech and actions of religious and political leadership in the Arab and Muslim world is dramatic.

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Syria Closes the Internet
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has begun a total crackdown on internet use.
Think of it as the Syrian version of the "Iron Curtain."

Home internet use has been verboten for a long time.
Now the ban is extending to public spaces.
Most Syrians who want internet connections frequent internet cafes.
The idea is to learn what is happening in the outside world and to communicate with people under the radar.

No more.
The Syrian government is demanding that all internet users register their names and ID numbers and all cafe owners must record the sites visited and the number of internet visits per person.

The irony of it all is that when Bashar Assad was called back from London to assume his new role as president his very first promise was to provide internet use for all Syrians - once they had electricity, of course.

How things change.

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Shame On You Olmert
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert visited the Southern Israeli city of Ashkelon on Thursday. He arrived shortly after the city was hit by a new GRAD rocket, fired from Gaza, by the Palestinians.

In Ashkelon Olmert said: "The Grad is heavier than the Qassam, and we have no way of preventing these things [rocket attacks] from recurring."

It is the responsibility of leaders to protect their citizens.
This admission may be true, but should never be uttered.
When a terrorists group openly declares war and attacks a country that country's political and military leadership must join forces to both protect their citizens and to prevent future attacks.

Rejecting this role is an admission of defeat.
It is a defeat for the prime minister and a it is defeat in the war against terror.
Western democracies can not give in to terrorists.
Shame on you, Prime Minister Olmert.

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Sarkozy's Caveat
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday Israeli President Shimon Peres was greeted in Paris by his French counterpart, President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Sarkozy said: "The State of Israel's right to exist securely is not debatable, and I believe that since the Holocaust the world bears the responsibility for this. I will continue to support Israel anywhere, as I did in my previous visits to Arab states."

This is a very new perspective from France in particular and Europe in general.
Sarkozy tells it like it is - and one thing is for certain, Sarkozy supports Israel.
For Sarakozy it is an issue of principle.
He has told Arab leaders that he will not shake the hand of a person who does not recognize the right of Israel to exist.

Sarkozy is not unique in Europe.
Most of France and Europe agree with Sarkozy - they just add a caveat.
They say that it is all right for Arabs and Palestinians not to shake the hands of Israelis.
And that becomes the central issue.

For Sarkozy, the caveat is just a caveat.

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Al Qaeda Is Ticking Off Tunisia
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda of North Africa released an audio tape on Al Jazeera yesterday.
The tape explained why two Austrian tourists vacationing in Tunisia were kidnapped.

On the recording a man who identified himself as Sallah Abu Mohammed explained that on February 22nd al Qaeda kidnapped two Austrians because of Western cooperation with Israel.
Al Qaeda is hoping to intimidate Western allies of Israel by putting the lives of those citizens in danger during their travels.

It's not happening.
Tunisia is livid and they are pulling out al the stops to squash al Qaeda.
If German, Austrian and other Western tourists stop visiting Tunisia there will be a huge drop in foreign currency income. If the West sees the Arab world as dangerous they will start pulling out the new investments the Arab world has tried so hard to develop.

Al Qaeda has overplayed their hand.
Tunisia is on the war path.

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Saudi Grand Sheik Says No to Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti, Sheik Abdul-Aziz Abdullah al-Sheikh, has warned Muslims not to give donations to al Qaeda.
The Grand Mufti issued his warning in response to an audio tape made by Ayman al-Zawahri, bin Laden's # 2 man, exhorting Muslims to cough up financial assistance to al Qaeda families in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Specifically, the Sheik told Muslims not to support "evil groups."
Everyone knows that he was referring to al Qaeda.
This is the first real public instance where a major cleric is challenging al Qaeda. The message was picked up by The Arab Times, a significant Kuwaiti paper.

For a long time I have been saying that the West is powerless in the real fight against al Qaeda. In order to seriously weaken al Qaeda the battle must be waged between Muslims. Muslims have to stand up and say NO to al Qaeda.

Maybe, just maybe, that NO has begun to be whispered.

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Barbaric Arab Acts
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The barbaric attack on a religious school in Jerusalem drew appropriate condemnation from the UN Secretary General and from many world leaders.
This attack even brought forth condemnation from Amnesty International.
Several important voices, however, have remained silent.

The only international body with real teeth, the Security Council of the United Nations, could not agree on a public condemnation of the attack.
Libya is a temporary member of the Council and they refused to condemn this terrorist attack.
Even Russia said that not being able to see how horrific this attack was is troubling.

Vitaly Churkin, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations, said: "To see people walk into a religious school and open fire on the students there, that is really something which should give one pause, especially those who care about religion." He said the attack by the Palestinian gunman was a "clear-cut individual act of terrorism."

Libya has done a disservice to the worldwide fight against terror.
We need no further proof of the weak and lackadaisical attitude the world has towards confronting the war on terror than the fact that the Security Council of the United Nations could not bring itself to condemn an act of terror specifically because Jews were the victims of the attack, not the perpetrators.

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It Is Simply Mass Murder
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The deliberate mass murder of innocent people can never be justified.
There can be no equivalency drawn between the mass murder of innocents and deaths occurring during military maneuvers.
There is no parallel between the intentional murder of innocents and the unintended killing of innocents during military actions.

In Jerusalem young boys were gunned down while learning in their religious school - the school had been targeted for the kill.
As news of the massacre was released celebrations began in Gaza.
And now parallels are being drawn between the deaths in Jerusalem and the deaths of Gaza residents.
That thinking is dangerous and it is wrong.

The distinction is lost by those who justify the acts of the terrorists.
It is not a question of semantics, it is an issue of ethical, moral and philosophical clarity.
Not to see this distinction is to justify the murder of innocent people in a school.

All deaths are tragic - and that is where the parallel begins and ends.

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Iran and the US Discuss Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 6, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

IRNA, the official press mouthpiece of Iran, has just issued a special report.
IRNA reports that an Iranian military delegation arrived in Iraq Wednesday for its 4th meeting with American and Iraqi military representatives as part of a committee that discusses security in Iraq.

The United States denies that there is such a committee.
The Iraqis are non-committal.
The Iranians proudly proclaim it.

It might be an unpopular idea, but a committee like this can really produce results. Low level practical negotiations between the US and Iran - especially on practical issues like security in Iraq - are very important.

Iran has a vested interest in Iraq as does the United States.
The United States needs to gather important, on the ground, practical understanding of Iran and the way in which Iran is approaching Iraq.

If all 3 sides can come together to create some sort of agreement on safety this may be a giant step towards stability. Even if the agreement is only partially adhered to, it will be a significant improvement in dealings with Iraq. And yes, I realize that another element of Iran's leadership and military is sponsoring terror in Iraq but sometimes the two seemingly contradictory objectives must be separated.

In the end, because of these talks, Iraq might just be a safer place for Iraqis.

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Excuse Me, Mr. Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Here is an example of a serious diplomatic synapse:
Palestinian President Abbas said that he will work to create a cease fire between Hamas and Israel.

He, Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian people will work to create a cease fire.
Excuse me, but Hamas is part of the Palestinian Authority.
Excuse me, but it is Abbas who has permitted a situation to arise in which Hamas sets the Palestinian agenda, not he.
Excuse me, but Abbas has had no say over Hamas until now, why would anyone think that Hamas could be swayed by this ineffectual leader now.
Excuse me, but Abbas has no ability to pressure Hamas either diplomatically or by way of physical threats.

Abbas sees that Israel is attacking Hamas with great force and he must try to stop Israel.
Israel sees a Palestinian leader who by all rights should, but cannot, stop Hamas.

Who is Abbas kidding?
Abbas has failed and Israel knows it.
Abbas and the United States have yet to recognize that truth.

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Israel- Indecision is A Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Indecision is the mistake that weak leaders make when they are scared by the ramifications of making decisions.
The worst decision Israel can make at this moment with regard to Hamas - is the decision not to decide.

At this point Hamas is pushing for a long, drawn out, low level conflict with Israel. In this case a long, drawn out, low level conflict with Hamas will only hurt Israel.
Hitting open fields with helicopter gunships shows Israeli firepower, but it does nothing to intimidate Hamas. It certainly does not bring Israel any closer towards secure boundaries.

Israel must take a long, hard, clear look at the situation and then make the decision to act - to really act.
Israel must shoot for a total knock out.
Israel might not succeed, Hamas will probably not be wiped off the map or blown out of Gaza, but Israel and Israelis will be much better off for whatever damage they do succeed in causing.

Time is not on Israel's side.

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Hamas is Escalating
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 29, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is escalating activity into Israel.
Over the past few days nearly 100 rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel.
On Wednesday and Thursday alone 82 rockets were shot into Israel, 51 of those rockets were aimed at Sderot.
The targets were educational centers and hospitals.

Hamas has added a new weapon to its arsenal against Israel, the GRAD Rocket.
The GRAD is a bigger rocket than the Qassam.
The GRAD is the most used rocket in the world, used by 50 countries.
The GRAD was originally Russian-made, but is now made all over the world.
So far,10 GRAD rockets were shot at Ashkelon, a city of 120,000 people.
The rockets were targeting the Barzalai Hospital Center.

Hamas is begging for Israel to retaliate.
And indeed, Israel began a series of air and ground attacks.
Israel even hit the empty house of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh who has been in hiding, anticipating this very attack.

This situation is not going away - at this point neither side can or will back down.

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Leaks in Iran's Dam
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 28, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

It is unusual to have public disagreement in Iran - especially at the highest levels.
But sometimes we see cracks in the Iranian dam of silence and solidarity.

Hassan Rowhani is a significant Iranian religious leader and a former nuclear negotiator and advisor.
Rowhani has heaped criticism on Ahmadinejad for his belligerent style and for his anti-Israel and anti-Western diatribes.

"Does foreign policy mean expressing coarse slogans and grandstanding?"

"This is not a foreign policy. We need to find an accommodating way to decrease the threats and assure the interests of the country."

"If the international community thinks that a country wants to play troublemaker and eliminate others, it will not let the country do this and will confront it."

"We must act in such a way that the world understands that we are ready for more flexibility and more dialogue."

Even the best dams sometimes spring leaks.

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Heroes of Sderot
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Another Qassam hit Sdreot yesterday.
Ten year old Yossi Haimov was critically wounded.

Red Alerts are a part of life for Yossi and the other residents of Sderot.

A red alert sounded just as Yossi and his eight year old sister Maria came home from school.

Maria said that Yossi did not cry, she said he was in a lot of pain.

The Qassam ripped his shoulder.
In a medical miracle doctors at nearby Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon were able to save Yossi’s arm.

The Popular Resistance Committees of the Palestinians (The PRC) claimed responsibility for the attack.

The PRC is not embarrassed that their great resistance fighters hurt a child.

Ten year old Yossi is now a hero.
The residents of Sderot are heroes.
None of them asked for this honor.

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It's Hard Being A Dictator
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Castro has been quoted saying that he was relieved to have stepped down and that governing has exhausted him.

Being a dictator is a 24/7 job.
Castro combined his charisma with his oppression and that was exhausting.
A lazy king can delegate and luxuriate, but not THUG, not a dictator.
A dictator needs to have his eyes and ears open - there are just not enough people to trust.

In modern oppressive regimes dictators rule with an iron fist - the people must be kept in line, but at the same time, the people cannot be pushed too very hard.
In modern organizational theory dictators are the worst leadership model.

Dictators are micro managers.
Dictators do not play well with others
Dictators do not take criticism well.
Dictators have only a few trusted aides.
Dictators divvy out power like a miser.

Controlling the lives of an entire country is exhausting work.
But the benefits, the benefits . . .

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Hezbollah's Sermon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah recently broadcast a fiery sermon from a Beirut mosque.
His audience was Lebanese, but Nasrallah was speaking to both Israel and Shiites. He issued a warning to Israel, he excited the Shiites.

He said: "In Israel there is a unanimous agreement that it lost the war. Using the word's of Ben-Gurion [the first prime minister of Israel] that if Israel loses one war it will approach its end, one can understand that this is the situation."

He said: "Now the Israelis are threatening us with war." "In the next war IDF will be destroyed"

He said: "The hajj Imad Mugniyah was killed in the framework of an open war and in an unprecedented step through which Israel is preparing for a new war. I don't wish to scare anyone. They are the ones making decisions on war and peace."

He said: "If a new war breaks out, they know their air force won't be enough to win the war. They have done all they can and have failed. We are ready for a conflict, are ready to defend and are ready to create a new victory, God willing, with all the faith and all the pride. No one can defend himself against our missiles."

He said: "As for the ground offensive they are planning, I can say that your brothers [Hezbollah fighters], these heroes, will fight the Zionists' army if it even thinks about invading Lebanon in any way and any place. I swear that your army and tanks will be defeated by Imad Mugniyah's men."

Do you hear shades of Ahmadinejad?
I do.

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Why Iran Needs Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad has clearly articulated his logic as to why he attacks Israel and why he needs nuclear weapons.

In an interview released yesterday by FARS, one of the official news agencies in Iran, Ahmadinejad is quoted as saying:
"There were those inside and outside the country who asked us why we are defending Palestine and speaking against the Zionists, in the midst of all the attacks on the nuclear plan. I answered them in private meetings that today we can still do it openly. You saw that when we spoke about the Zionists' ideology, the enemy's ground was undermined, and they who speak about freedom (of speech) began crying out and had no possibility of creating unity and taking an active role."

Translation: Iran needs to keep Israel in check.
A nuclear weapon will help Muslims defend themselves against Israel. Verbal attacks against Israel help unite Muslims against the common enemy - Israel.

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Kudos Morocco
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

New details are emerging on the capture, in Morocco, of a large terror cell.

MAP, the official media outlet of Morocco, announced that 32 terrorists in total have been arrested.
MAP also announced that the cell was planning some very high profile attacks.

Over the past few years this group has supported itself through international treacheries including an armored car robbery in Luxembourg and a jewelry heist in Belgium after which the loot was melted down and sold.

This group wanted to assassinate Moroccan cabinet ministers.
They wanted to assassinate army officers.
They wanted to assassinate leaders of the Moroccan Jewish community.
There are only a few thousand Jews still living in Morocco but they are high up on Islamist targets lists.

Great job Morocco.
The time has come for all Arab states to take a strong stand against the Islamists because, believe it or not, Islamists also have Arab states in their cross-hairs.

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Castro- What's Next
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Castro's step aside was widely anticipated.
But what will happen next on the international front?

In order to make predictions about a post-Castro future, we understand his past. Castro was a master:
a master thug
a master leader
a master manipulator
a master politician

What has Castro left behind?
Castro has left the world a living legacy.
As he was ending his career he reached out to Chavez. That was a tell.
It signaled that Fidel Castro was firmly handing off the baton of anti-US leadership to his ideological comrade Chavez.

Castro has left a vacant playing field.
Expect Iran to court Cuba. It is in the best interests of the Iranians to reach out and expand in the backyard of the United States of America.

What should the US be doing now that this void has opened up?
The US must now realize that the competition for Cuba's favor is Iran.
The new Castro-in-charge will probably continue in his brother/mentor's footsteps, but it behooves the US to use backdoor channels in order to plead its best case before Cuba.
Hopefully, Cuba will be swayed by the US more than it will be swayed by Iran.

Fidel Castro was more than a man, he was an internationally acclaimed thug, he was a symbol.
The stepping aside of Fidel Castro has far greater implications than the removal of one man's presence from the international scene.

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Morocco Arrests 23 Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

We often fail to realize the value of behind-the-scenes work in battling terror.
Terror not only colors the Western world, but also the Arab and Muslim world.

Yesterday Morocco announced that they arrested 23 people - an entire terror cell, leader included. The cell was set to attack Western and Arab targets. All this was made public by MAP the official Moroccan state news agency.

The report clearly stated that : "Twenty-three of them, including the network's leader Abdelkader Belliraj, were taken into custody."
This is an essential bit of news.

Al Qaeda runs freely across the Arab world.
Arab regimes need to try to stop al Qaeda, but more often than not they are afraid of Al Qaeda.
In reality, the Arab regimes are bigger targets for Jihadists than are the United States and the West.

Morocco has now made a choice.
Morocco finally understands.
The assistance that Morocco can offer in the fight against terror is invaluable.

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Mugniyah Was An Inside Job
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Michael McConnell is the Director of National Intelligence.
As a guest on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace McConnell gave important insight into the assassination of Hezbullah's master terrorist Imad Mugniyah.

He said:
"Hezbollah has blamed Israel. But there's some evidence that it may have been internal Hezbollah. It may have been Syria. We don't know yet, and we're trying to sort that out."

"But let's just - let me just mention about Mugniyeh, the person we're talking about - responsible for more deaths of Americans and Israelis than any other terrorist, with the exception of Osama bin Laden."

"There was a warrant for his arrest here in this country for a murder of a U.S. citizen. So this man over time had lots of enemies. Remember, he's a Shia, [sic Shiite] and oftentimes his targets could be Sunni as well as against Israel and so on."

The list of those wanting Imad Mugniyah dead was long.
But who had the means and who had the opportunity?
It had to be a local - a Hezbollah or Palestinian or Lebanese assassin.
This was an inside job, about that there is no doubt.

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Russia in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to double the manpower in the Busher nuclear plant in Iran. They claim that Busher needs more trained workers in order to bring it on line by the Fall of 2008.

Russia is playing both ends against one another, a game they are very good at.
On one side the Russians are supplying Iran with nuclear technology and know-how as well as with training and with workers.
On the other the Russians are trying to be international brokers to stop Iran's race to nuclear independence.

Russia wants to have it both ways.
And because Russia has a permanent Security Council seat with veto power - Russia may actually get it both ways.

It is our job to make certain that Iran is kept under control too.

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Iran & Syria Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 16, 2008

I've Beeb Thinking:

Iran and Syria form the most powerful nexus in the Middle East right now.
And Iran and Syria are becoming cozy, very cozy.

Iran's Foreign Minister was just in Syria for meetings.
That has many leaders, policy makers and advisers deeply concerned.
They are concerned about the power that will emerge from the continued diplomatic and economic sharing that will result from this friendship.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and most of the small Gulf States know that an Iran/Syria alliance means a move to the extreme.
It means a new tone will be set in the Middle East.
It also means a nose dive for US policy.

US policy in the region is predicated on the actions of Saudi Arabia and Egypt and Jordan.
Until now, those countries have set the tone and squashed Islamic radicalism through official military and judicial means or through financial means.
Now the extremists, Hezbollah and Hamas, will be sponsored by Iran and Syria.

This is not good news - not for the Middle East and not for the Untied States

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Ahmadinejad Going to Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, in the name of political/diplomatic correctness, the United States is making a big and potentially costly mistake.
Iran has just announced that Ahmadinejad will visit Iraq on March 2 and 3.
The visit was expected - last week the Iranians announced that a visit was planned for some time before March 19.

As of now, Ahmadinejad plans to:
meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki
spy Iraq's new military apparatus
spy United States forces stationed in Iraq

OK, so the US permitted Ahmadinejad entry into NYC in order to address the UN. And OK, so Columbia University gave him a platform from which to spew forth his rhetoric.
But those were not sensitive areas, no military was around for him to observe. Iraq is one big base for the United States and for US interests.

Why is the United States, the acknowledged interim gatekeeper of Iraq, permitting Ahmadinejad entry into Iraq.
If Ahmadinejad and Nuri al Maliki need to meet, do it somewhere else.

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The World is Better w/out This Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 14, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Know this: People who play with bombs sometimes blow themselves up, too.

Yesterday an explosion in Damascus killed one of the worst terrorists in the world.

Imad Mugniyah is his name.

Mugniyah was the head of operations for Hezbollah for the past 20 plus years. Mugniyah was as important to Hezbollah from the operational side as Hassan Nasrallah is from the religious side.
Mugniyah and Nasrallah were a team, his death is a significant blow to Hezbollah.

No Hezbollah sponsored terror attack occurred without the OK of Mugniyah.

No Hezbollah attack was carried out without his hand in the design and in the execution.

Mugniyah masterminded the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev that provoked the war between Israel and Lebanon in the summer of 2006.

Mugniyah masterminded the bombing of US Marine barracks and embassy bombings in Beirut.

Mugniyah masterminded the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires.

Mugniyah was the face in the cockpit, behind the pilot, when a TWA jet was hijacked in Beirut in 1985.
Fingers are being pointed at Israel, claiming that Israel was behind the assassination.
The truth is that many countries, Israel amongst them, wanted Imad Mugniyah dead.

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Qatar Sues Kuwait Over Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while a real live event from the world of Arab/Israel relations begs to be included in the world of Ripley's Believe it or Not.

The Prime Minister of Qatar has sued a Kuwaiti newspaper for ruining his reputation.
The Qatar paper is somewhat independent as Arab newspapers go.

Why is the Prime Minister so upset that he is suing?
A columnist for the paper named Fouad al Hashem has routinely criticized Qatar for ties with Israel.
In his columns al Hashem asserts that the Qataris are getting rich through deals with Israel, especially and most recently, a diabetes drug being developed in Israel.

Qatar suing Kuwait because of Israel.
Who would have thunk it?

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The NIE Repudiated
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Director of National Intelligence repudiated that ridiculous report claiming that Iran had stopped nuclear development in the fall of 2003 aka NIE, the National Intelligence Estimate.

Michael McConnell testified at a hearing in front of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
He said: "If I had 'til now to think about it, I would probably change a few things." I would change the way we describe the Iranian nuclear program. I would have included that there are the component parts, that portion of it, maybe the least important, had halted."

What is McConnell's present day estimate of Iranian nuclear development?
"We remain concerned about Iran's intentions and assess with moderate to high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

Now that is an accurate and honest assessment.
Why didn't we hear that until now?
What took so long?

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US May Not Got to Durban
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 9, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Twenty-six US senators have sent a letter to Secretary of State Condi Rice saying that they want to pull out of the UN World Conference On Racism.
Scheduled to be held next year, this conference is better known as Durban Conference II.
Canada has already pulled out.

Why is there opposition to the conference?
It is becoming clear that this conference, like the first Durban Conference, will devote itself to Israel bashing by promoting anti-Semitism and anti-Israel activity in session after session after session.

Libya was appointed chair of the conference.
Iran is vice chair of the conference.
The letter, drafted by Senator Norm Coleman, asks: how crazy is that?
Iran rejects the Holocaust and has called for Israel to be wiped off the map and they serve as vice chair. Is there any greater form of racism today than to deny the Holocaust?

State Department spokesperson Karl Duckman said no decision has been made. I hope the United States makes the correct decision.

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Iran's Rejects Khomeini's Grandson
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I spend a great deal of time trying to understand Iran.
I try to predict Iranian actions and behaviors.
And sometimes, even I am surprised by the action of Iranians.

Ali Eshragi, grandson of The Ayatollah Khomeini, was forbidden from running for office in the upcoming elections.
Eshragi even received the blessings of the current Supreme Leader, the
successor to his grandfather, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The committee that vets candidates rejected Eshragi.
The committee that vets candidates tows the line as decreed by Ahmadinejad.

Once upon a time Ahmadinejad's religious mentor was rejected by Khomeini, the founder of the revolution.
Nowadays, it appears that The Ayatollah Khomeini and his grandchildren are neither extreme enough nor Islamic enough for Ahmadinejad and his allies.
That is truly unbelievable.

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US Strike Kills Civilians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier in the week the US embarked on an air-strike just south of Baghdad.
The target was in a densely populated area in the village of Tal al Samar.

Nine civilians including a child were killed.
Three civilians including two children were wounded.
To top it all off the American air-strike hit friendly soldiers who were actually fighting for US interests.

The Iraqi press has been all over this story.
The US and other foreign press have barely given it any attention.

Here's the rub:
If these were the outcome of an Israeli air strike Israel a UN resolution would have been passed condemning the action.
If this was the outcome of an Israeli air strike human rights groups would be all up in arms.
Something is inconsistent here.

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George Habash Is Dead
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

George Habash died on Saturday January 26, 2008.
His long overdue death was a relief for many in the free world.

Habash was, above all else, a terrorist.
Habash was responsible for tens of terror attacks.
Habash was responsible for the deaths of dozens of people.
Habash will be held up by some as a hero.
That is a classic litmus test determining who embraces democracy and who embraces terror.

Habash founded the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) in the late 1960's as a direct response to Arafat.
Habash felt that Arafat - the world's greatest terrorist in the 70's -was too soft, too weak and too liberal in his approach to terror.
Habash wanted his PLFP to wreak more havoc and more devastation on the civilized world.

George Habash was born in Jerusalem.
In a quirk of fate his home of long ago is diagonally across from the present day official residence of the president of Israel.
The Palestinians have declared a three day mourning period for George Habash.

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France is Right
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

France has it right - the United States has it wrong.
That's one headline that never made it to the front pages and it's a shame because it really is front page news.

French Foreign Minister Herve Morin just finished a 36 hour trip to Washington. It is no secret that there is tension between DC and Paris over several issues. Surprisingly, these meetings were overall very positive.

There was one point of contention.
France thinks that Iran is pursuing nuclear technology and does not believe as the National Intelligence Estimate assesses that Iran stopped in the fall of 2003.

Viva la France.

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Radioactive Cargo To Iran Found
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 3, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A radioactive cargo train en route to Iran departed Kyrgyzstan recently.
The train never made it - it was stopped traveling through Uzbekistan.
The Uzbekis turned the train back.
A huge investigation is under way.

We know that the train was en route to Iran.
We can assume that it was ordered by the Iranians.
We do not know who sent out the train and how the shipment was arranged.
We do not know what special arrangements were made to allow the train out of Kyrgyzstan and across the border in to Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan is one of the former Soviet Republics, it is actually in Asia – one of the "Stans" as I affectionately refer to them.
Kyrgyzstan borders China and many Kyrgyzsians have Chinese features.

In Kyrgyzstan the vast majority of the population is Muslim, Sunni Muslim.
In Kyrgyzstan, however, Islam more a flavor and a culture than an obsession and extremism as is found elsewhere.

Find the extremists in Kyrgyzstan and you will find the people who organized the radioactive train.

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Wingograd & Amnesty
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Since its release the Winograd Report has made headlines and generated critique throughout the world.
The Report evaluates Israeli leaders and the decisions they made during the Second Lebanese War.

I need to comment on Amnesty International's comment.
Amnesty International is saying that the Report does not mention Israel's wanton disregard for civilians. Amnesty International is saying that Israel did not distinguish between Hezbollah and civilians.

Nothing could be further from the truth.
The entire reason there was a Winograd Report was because of the way Israel fights a war - which is by making every effort to minimize civilian casualties.
If Israel had approached Southern Lebanon with wanton disregard for civilians, as AI contends, there would have been thousands and thousands of civilian deaths and Hezbollah would have been totally destroyed.

That did not happen.
Hence, the Winograd Report was commissioned and the results were released for the world to read.

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More Decapitations in Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 1, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia decapitated two young men on Wednesday.
The two were convicted of raping a young boy.
The two filmed the entire event on their cell phone.

Public beheadings and beheadings behind prison walls are relatively common in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi Kingdom executes murderers, rapists, people who act against the interests of the Kingdom and even some thieves.
The Saudi Kingdom justifies these killings based on Islamic law.

We need to seriously reshape our relationship with Saudi Arabia.
We must clearly and unequivocally stipulate that our relationship is one of mutual gain and not of shared values.

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Iran Stops Public Executions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 31, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Iran issued a public statement yesterday. There will be no more public executions in Iran without his written permission.

No more public executions without the permission of the Chief Justice does not mean that there will be no more executions.
Executions will continue, just not publicly. Executions, the Chief Justice made clear, will continue to take place behind the walls of prisons in Iran.
The most common form of execution in Iran is hanging.
But they also decapitate.

In Iran it's all about international public image.
The Chief Justice is trying to "spin" some of the awful PR Iran has received.
The Iranian understanding of the world is so warped that they truly think this statement is positive, that it will actually improve their image.

Today in Iran's notorious Evin Prison they executed five people.
That's Iran for you.

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France Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 27, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

France has recently decided to assist Arab states in their development of nuclear technology. I kid you not.

After meeting with a number of Arab countries earlier this week France made the announcement that they would aid these countries in nuclear development. France quickly qualified the announcement to say that each country would not necessarily get its own nuclear reactor and weapons.
Some small consolation, I suppose.

For France this is all business.
France is making a business move against Russia and against Iran who also want to monopolize industry in the region by becoming the region's main supply source of nuclear technology.

That Russia is doing this does not surprise me.
That Iran wants to do it is certainly no surprise.
But France, France should now better.
France has returned to her old ways, France is once again a foreign policy prostitute.

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Terrorists Just Out of Prison
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The terror attack that injured 3 people in Gush Etzion, Israel was perpetrated by two Palestinians who had been released from Israeli prison only days before.

That information is as accurate as it is shocking - 100%.
The terrorists were not released as part of a deal, they were released because their two year prison terms were over.
They had both been found guilty of trying to steal weapons from an army base.

It's hard to understand, but even though we know from experience that released terrorists often continue in their terrorist ways, terrorists are still being released after serving their terms.
Many young terrorist/convicts go back to their terror organizations.
In this case they escalated from weapons acquisition to an actual terror attack.

Thankfully the teachers of Gush Etzion were prepared.
There were only three injuries and after a struggle the terrorists were killed.

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UN HUman Rights Council Condems Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 25, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

For only the 6th time in history the United Nations Human Rights Council met for a special session.
The sole purpose of the session, which was held on Wednesday and on Thursday, was to condemn Israel for actions in Gaza.

The resolution was damning.
The language was very harsh.
There are 47 members on the Human Rights Council.
The vote was 30 for the resolution, 1 against and 15 members abstained.

Canada, the one vote against, once again stepped up and did the right thing.
Canada argued that the resolution must mention the Palestinian rockets.
Canada argued that the Council should be mandated to be concerned about all human rights and not only Palestinian human rights.

Who else is on the UN Human Rights Council?
China, Egypt, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are all members.
China, Egypt, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia all boast their own horrific human rights records.

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Canada Gets It
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 24, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I have not been a fan of Canada and Canadian foreign policy.
I have always felt that the Canadians get "it" wrong.

The Canadians are always afraid of something - of the United States, of being too pro-United States - or they are just way too liberal in their foreign policy.

But yesterday the Canadians got "it" right.
Yesterday the Canadians decided to boycott the next Durban Conference.

The Durban Conference is the infamous international conference on human rights.

The Canadians concluded that despite all their attempts this Conference, like the others before it, will simply degenerate into a festival of Antisemitism.

Canada is, so far, the first country to announce a boycott of the Conference.

I hope that other countries - especially Western countries, especially the US, especially the EU, will follow suit.
The type of vitriol that is spewed in Durban should never be justified by official, democratic governments.

Congratulations to the Canadians.
Maybe now we can speak of a new era in Canada.
Maybe now we can speak of a new Canada, a Canada free of Antisemitism.

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Sanctions On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 23, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Leaders of five of the world's most powerful countries met in Germany yesterday.
These world leaders decided to begin the process of new sanctions against Iran.

Russia, China, France, the United States and Germany all together and in sync. This was a very significant step.
Russia and China have not been very supportive of sanctions against Iran, now they seemed to have reached a tipping point.

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier summed it up.
He said: "We are united in the view that a nuclear armed Iran would have dramatic consequences for the Middle East and further afield."

Iranian news covered the event.
Iranian news (IRNA) incorrectly reported that the meeting ended without conclusions.
Wishful thinking on the part of the Iranians.

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Saudi Women Cannot Drive -- Yet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Most of us cannot truly grasp just how traditional Saudi Arabian society is.
The recent discussion about allowing women to drive is a small example of just how little Saudi women are allowed to do.

We are witnessing the liberalizing Saudi society - a slow, baby step by baby step process. There is a significant separation of the sexes in public situations.
In Saudi Arabia today a woman cannot hail a taxi.
A woman cannot get into a taxi unless accompanied.
An unescorted woman must shop behind curtains.

Women driving is a metaphor for women reaching a state of equality with their men.
If a woman drives she may take off her hajib, the traditional headdress, in order to have a better view of the road.
If a woman drives she will have the freedom to go wherever she wants whenever she wants.

Traditional leadership does not want to see change in Saudi society.
This is not the first time Saudis have proposed this particular change.
It will happen, but it will not happen quickly.

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Double Standard
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 20, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

A chorus of voices has been shouting about the way Israel is surgically striking at Hamas terrorist strongholds, including the Hamas Ministry of the Interior.

The Red Cross, the Europeans, the United Nations, the European Union and the list goes on.

The voices get louder as Israel continues to hit the cells, factories and cars of the terrorists.

Almost all call for restraint on both sides.
Almost all condemn the death of innocents.

So where were those voices when 130 rockets rained down on Israel in 72 hours? Where were those voices when Hamas and Islamic Jihad let out a barrage against Israel?

Why did the many shouts turn into a few hushed whispers?
There is a definite double standard operating here.

The objective of Hamas and of Islamic Jihad is to attack as many innocents as possible - that is clear from the type of weapons being used.

The objective of Israel is to attempt to minimize the number of innocent victim casualties, even as the terrorists hide out among civilians.

Why is this all so obvious to me and not to the Red Cross, the UN and the EU?

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Iran Threatens Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 19, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just threatened Israel once again.
"Israel better not attack Iran" is what Ahmadinejad said.

Ahmadinejad's threat came as a response to the successful testing that Israel has conducted on the Jericho III missile, a very advanced surface to surface missile.
Iran is beginning to quake.
Iran needs to save face.

Those in the know, know that all the Jericho missiles - I, II, & III - can carry a variety of non conventional warheads aka nuclear bombs.

Some analysts think that the only reason Israel tested the missile was to clearly show just how sophisticated their systems are and to make a clear statement to Iran that Israel is extremely capable of defending itself.

Israel has confirmed the test.
Israel claims that they conducted the test to evaluate their mid-range defense systems.

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Female Suicide Bombers
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 18, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Another female suicide bomber carried out an attack in the Diyala province of Iraq on Wednesday.

This was the fourth female suicide bomber to attack the Diyala province since November.

This time the bomber struck near a Shiite mosque, killing herself and eight others.

There are 2 explanations for this increase in females strapping themselves with explosives in order to murder as many innocent people as possible.

Number One - handlers know that women are less likely to be searched and more likely to reach their targets in sensitive areas than are men.
Number Two - terrorist organizers are running low on men and so they are lowering themselves and accepting the women who have been waiting in line for a very long time.

Whatever the reason, only one course of action can stop these attacks.
The local army must quickly learn to spot and these women and stop them just the way they would stop any male suicide bomber.

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Israel Is Not The Problem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 17, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

President Bush's trip to the Middle East is now over.
This is how Egypt's President Mubarak summed up the Bush Middle East trip.

"[T]he Palestinian question, of course, is the core of problems and conflict in the Middle East, and it is the entry to contain the crisis and tension in the region, and the best means to face what's going on in the world, and our region - I mean by that, the escalation of violence, extremism and terrorism."

This canard has been spreading far too long.
It is a blatant mistake.

Any real assessment of the Middle East reveals that the biggest problem in the Middle East is Islamic extremism not the Palestinian issue.

If the Palestinian/Israeli conflict were resolved tomorrow
Would that improve the situation vis a vis Iran?

Would the Sunni Shiite tensions of the past thousands years be resolved?

Would autocratic dictators and monarchs suddenly be beneficent?
Of course not.

The Palestinian/Israeli conflict should be resolved because it will make the lives of Israelis and Palestinians safer and better.

The Palestinian/Israeli conflict has little to do with the rest of the Middle East except that it is used as a rhetorical tool to stir up anti-Western sentiment.

Period. The end.

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The Other Side of Humanitarian Aid
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 15, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza terrorists are smuggling explosives in humanitarian aid packages.
Over the past week two of these shipments were intercepted by Israel.
Who knows how many shipments have passed successfully through Palestinian hands.

Last week Israel was inspecting sugar containers and found the explosive loot. On Monday while inspecting a shipment of medicine Israel discovered 2 tons of fertilizer - a substance that would be used to make Qassam rockets and bombs.

Despite the boycott against Gaza, despite international sanctions, the terrorists continue to successfully import the weapons and explosives they need. Certainly Israel catches some of the contraband - and I hope they find most of it - but just as certainly illegal weapons continue to flow into Gaza.

And that is why it is so important to shut down the Egyptian side of the burgeoning Hamas Arms Importation Program.
If they do not have weapons Hamas will pose no threat to either Fatah or to Israel.

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Iraqi Soldiers - Heroes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 13, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Three Iraqi Soldiers Tackle a Suicide Bomber Wearing an Explosive Belt
That is one headline that never made it to the mainstream press.
For the life of me, I don't know why.

This simple story is enormously important for our understanding of what is truly happening in Iraq now.
This single act of bravery is an indication of the influence the United States and the West are having on the country of Iraq.

Unfortunately, the terrorist succeeded in igniting the belt killing himself, the three soldiers and seven other innocent people. The terrorist attack took place during Army Day Festivities, a day dedicated to honoring the Iraqi army. Masses of people were there to demonstrate their support for the new Iraq.

The three Iraqi soldiers are heroes, they represent a new breed of soldier in Iraq - soldiers willing to confront evil and fight evil even at the cost of their own lives.
Iraqis continue to join the army and the police. Iraqis are willing to come out and celebrate, they do it all despite the dangers and the risks.

This entire phenomenon is transformative.
I think that Iraq has really turned a corner.
It looks as if our program might actually be working.
Why are we keeping it a secret?

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Arabs Should Reach Out To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 12, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

In the 6th sentence of President Bush's summary of events in Israel he said.
"I call upon Arab countries to reach out to Israel, a step that is long overdue."

The next day Condi Rice, Bush's chief diplomat clarified her boss' statement.
Rice put a more realistic spin on the statement, showing an understanding of the region.
Rice said: "There isn't going to be a blinding flash in any of this, not on this trip, not on the next trip. But this is a process that is moving forward." ... "The Arab states took a big step in coming to Annapolis." ... "Arabs will do more and more."

One of the reasons Israel was so supportive of Annapolis - before, during and after the Summit - is because the Arab presence was a de facto recognition of Israel.

Recognition by the Arab world is an essential component of Israeli foreign policy. During this trip to the Middle East we saw how Bush in sync George Bush is with Israel's thinking.

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Bush in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 10, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

President Bush wrapped up his first day in Israel.
Now he is off to hear from the Palestinians.

Suffice it to say that the Palestinians will be disappointed.
Bush made it very clear that he supports Israel and sees the constant barrage of rockets attacking Israel as being solely under Palestinian responsibility.
Bush made it clear that no progress can be made unless security is first in place.
Bush even underscored the special status of Jerusalem as distinct from what he termed "outposts."

The president of the United States has clearly demonstrated that he both understands and supports the Israeli point of view.
Now we'll see how Palestinian leadership reacts to his comments.

Israelis lined the streets and waved American flags in support of the president.
How will Palestinians greet George Bush?
Hamas has already held a huge demonstration in Gaza with participants waving pictures of George Bush portrayed as Dracula drinking Palestinian blood.
One picture is worth how many words?

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Bush's Trip
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 8, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The Israelis have prepared a full diplomatic agenda in honor of the visit of US president George Bush.

The three most significant issues on Israel's agenda with Bush are:

Iran's true nuclear capabilities - the US president will get a peek at Israel's National Intelligence Estimate.

The Qassam rocket barrage from Gaza - because Palestinians are exerting no control and taking no action against the terrorists launching the rockets.

Jerusalem is the undisputed capital of Israel - and Har Homa is unquestionably a neighborhood within Jerusalem.

President Bush will have no choice but to both agree and disagree on all issues. Agree on the grounds that these are all real problems with significant ramifications.

Disagree because Israel, too, must exercise restraint.
Disagree because Israel should not embark on unilateral actions.
Disagree because any new buildings, striking out at any Arabs and organizing anything against Iran rocks the boat - and the President definitely does not want boat rocking in an already turbulent sea.

Restraint is the classic United States admonition of Israel.

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Hamas and Sarkozy
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 7, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Machiavelli wrote that politics makes strange bedfellows.
Hamas is trying to exploit that concept.
Ismail Haniyeh, now the head of Hamas in Gaza and the former prime minister of the PA until he was ousted by current PA prime minister Mahmoud Abbas, has written a long letter to Nicolas Sarkozy, the new president of France.

Haniyeh wrote that he and his cohorts listened carefully to Sarkozy's speech at the Donors Conference for the Palestinians that took place 2 weeks ago in Paris.
Haniyeh thinks that he and Sarkozy might see eye to eye on some things. Haniyeh wrote Sarkozy saying that Hamas is "prepared to cooperate with all international efforts to establish security and stability in the region."

I do not think Sarkozy is the man for Hamas.
The most influential man in the life of young Sarkozy, the relative who raised him, was his Jewish, Greek grandfather, a Holocaust survivor from Salonika.

Sarkozy believes in a two-state solution, an Israel next to a Palestine - but only after real security has been proven.
Sarkozy is a strong believer in Israel's right to exist and in her safety.
Sarkozy just pulled the French ambassador from Syria, cutting all diplomatic ties with Syria because Syria was not "respecting Lebanon."

Good try Hamas, but you are way off base on this one.
This time around Hamas is totally misreading the map.

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Iran's New Moves
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 5, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Watch the Iranians.
Listen to what Iranian diplomatic teams have to say.
Iranians are predictable.
Watch what they do, listen to what they say and you will know what they are planning.

On Friday Iran's foreign minister visited Islamabad Pakistan to meet with Pakistani President Musharraf.
The Iranian and Pakistani leaders spoke about terror and the need to combat terror. Wow.

On Friday Ali Larijani arrived in Damascus after spending a week in Egypt.
In Syria he will probably meet with everyone from Assad to the head of security. Larijani - head of the Iranian Security Council, former chief nuclear negotiator and probably Ahmadinejad's closest adviser - will be making the rounds.

Iran is paving the way for other countries to create alternatives to United States interests.
Watch them, listen to them and you will learn.

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Al Qaeda's New Video
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 4, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Al Sahab, the media moguls of al Qaeda, has begun a savvy new public relations campaign intended to taunt the United States.
Their soon-to-be-released video, will feature Azzam al Amriki, aka the American turned al Qaeda operative and now video star Adam Gadhan.

So far, all Sahab has only released some juicy quotes setting the campaign in context in an attempt to whet our appetites for more.
And more is sure to follow soon.

Al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadhan will talk about repentance - a rather lofty goal for a murderous terror group to pursue.
Al Qaeda wants us to pay attention to this new message.
Al Qaeda wants to shift the dialogue away from mass murder and towards religious introspection.

But like all religious extremists, try as they might al Qaeda will not be able to totally hide their murderous agenda - it is part and parcel of their religious outlook.
And certainly, do not expect al Qaeda to ask forgiveness for 9-11, the jewel in their radical, religious, extremist crown.

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Egypt Plays Hardball
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 2, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is playing diplomatic hardball and Egypt is out to get Israel.

The Egyptians are threatening to use all their diplomatic clout to stymie Israeli interests in the developing world.
The Egyptians will be leaning especially heavily on those Muslim countries interested in expanding what have been until now quiet associations with Israel.

Egypt, a country with significant power in the developing world, has threatened to turn Israeli foreign minister Tzippi Livni into a persona non grata in the developing world by applying serious anti-Israel diplomacy.

Why? Because the Israeli foreign minister "publicly disrespected" Egypt by announcing that Israel had brought video footage of Egyptian security personnel assisting Hamas smuggle weapons into Gaza to show the Americans.

It happens to be true but not very diplomatic - and therein lies the problem.
Public pronouncements, not matter how truthful, have little to do with diplomacy.
Pronouncements of this sort are actually antithetical to Middle East diplomacy. Truth about violations can be leaked - and often are, but they are not made public at press conferences.

The right to shame Egypt belongs only to a super power, not to little Israel.

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Iran & Egypt Partners in Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 31, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran wants nukes and Iran wants the United States to accept that fact.

Ali Larijani was once the former head Iranian nuclear negotiator.
Larijani is head of the Iranian National Security Council.
Larijani is also a very close - perhaps the closest, adviser to Ahmadinejad.
Larijani is in Egypt and he has just pitched Cairo a whammy.

Get this:
Iran will cooperate or even better, will help Egypt develop nuclear technology.
With one caveat:
Iran will only help Egypt with the agreement i.e. approval of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations watch dog.
Absurdity or strategy?
Strategy. Iran needs to get Arabs on their side, and nothing tops a leading liberal Arab country like Egypt. In fact, Larijani even said that countries like Egypt and Iran should be setting the agenda for the Middle East.

If left unchecked, Iran just might succeed in shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.
That means Iran could be supplying nuclear technology to anyone who wants it.
Iran is playing a very smooth and so far successful end game.

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Taking Advantage of the Assassination
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The international media world is abuzz, reporting almost exclusively on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto,
And that makes it the perfect time for other international stories to just slip through the cracks, make no waves, go unnoticed.

Here are some of the stories that the media is not covering right now:

A second package of enriched uranium was shipped from Russia to Iran.
The announcement was made by the Iranian Vice President Ahmad Fayazbaksh, aka deputy director of Iran's nuclear agency.
When a story like this is not covered, it is as if it never happened.

Russia has gone on record with the big lie, claiming not to be supplying Iran with S-300 surface to ground missiles.
By posting this announcement now, Russia sidesteps discussion about and criticism of arms trading with Iran and eliminates the specter of a media investigation into the story.

Israel has been conducting very effective raids, successfully striking at terrorist leaders in Ramallah and Gaza over the past 2-3 days.
The media is too busy to focus on the strikes and too busy to criticize Israel for these actions.

Brilliant media manipulation by all these countries.
If I were advising a country, I would say now is the time to act.

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The Real Bhutto
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

We need perspective.
Assassination is horrific, but I must set the record straight about Benazir Bhutto. It is essential that we see the person, not merely the martyr.

We must remember that:
Bhutto was in self-imposed exile living in Dubai and London.
Bhutto ran away from numerous corruption charges.
Bhutto's first government fell because of similar charges, she maintained that the charges were trumped up and unsubstantiated but, never the less, she ran away.

We must never forget that:
Bhutto supported the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Bhutto provided money, weapons and advice to the Taliban during her 2nd term.
Bhutto supported the Taliban rise to power in 1996, she thought the Taliban would have a stabilizing impact on the region.

Benazir Bhutto was proved wrong and she later changed her perspective.
But one cannot rewrite history and it is clear and evident that, at one time, Bhutto was a strong supporter of the Taliban.
Bhutto was fearless, she was courageous, her lapse in judgment does not make her a bad person it just makes her wrong.
PEOPLE magazine called Banazir Bhutto one of the most beautiful people in the world - even beautiful people make serious mistakes.

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US Overplayed Pakistan
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States bears indirect culpability for what is happening in Pakistan.
This was a serious blow to democracy and to US foreign interests.
The United States overplayed its hand.

The United States insisted that Bhutto return to Pakistan despite the threats against her life, threats that were serious from the outset.
The United States was trying to stimulate democratic juices and energize the Pakistani populous for the upcoming parliamentary elections.
The United States was myopic in supporting Bhutto and in forcing Musharaff to accept her return.
The United States was oblivious to the ugly and dangerous situation it was causing in Pakistan.

Certainly, Bhutto was popular, but there was also a very vehement anti-Bhutto faction in Pakistan and that group included terrorists who rejected her for nothing more than the fact that Bhutto was a woman. Others hated her because she was modern, egalitarian, pro-Western and Oxford and Harvard educated.

Bhutto knew the risks, she was fearless, she became a martyr for the cause of democracy.

Pakistan will recover from this turmoil.
The legacy of Benazir Bhutto will be the three children she has left behind.

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Bhutto Assassination
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Not to have anticipated this assassination is a major failing in US foreign policy.
I do not believe that Musharraf had Bhutto killed.

My Prediction:
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is cataclysmic for Pakistan.
The assassination is catastrophic for American interests in Pakistan.
The assassination will result in a spiraling down of almost every quantifiable intelligence variable in Pakistan.
But in the end law and order will again be restored - by the army.

My Analysis:
Pakistan is an ally of the United States.
Musharraf has promised proper elections.
BUT Musharraf is a THUG.
Before all of this Pakistan, was on the verge of democratic reforms.
Now it's all a crap shoot.

It was at the insistence of the US that Bhutto returned to Pakistan.
One of the results of the return was a series of immediate assassination attempts on her life and the imposing of martial law.
Bhutto even dispatched a letter to Musharraf naming 4 "high ups" she suspected were plotting her demise.

Bhutto herself was not above reproach, BUT now
Bhutto represented the opposition
Bhutto represented change
Bhutto represented the past
Bhutto symbolized everything that is dangerous and volatile in Pakistan.

The US is in a very bad diplomatic position.
The US supports Musharraf BUT the US also supports democracy.
There is a clear clash.
Democracy cannot emerge without law and order.

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Out Maneuvered by Iran Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Two seemingly unrelated items caught my eye today as I trolled trolling through dispatches dealing with the Middle East.

Item # 1:
Ali Larijani, the former Iranian nuclear negotiator, was in Cairo Egypt.
Larijani is still the head of the Iranian National Security Council.
Larijani was in Egypt to jumpstart diplomatic relations between Egypt and Iran, relations that were severed thirty years ago.

Item # 2:
Iran and Russia signed a deal on a surface-to-ground missile system.
The missile, an S-300 missile, has a maximum range of only 50 miles, but it is very effective against airplanes.

On closer observation it becomes evident that there is a definite link between the two items and events.
It is all about Iran.

Iran is out there improving status, making connections, generating good will.
Iran is building bridges all over the world, especially where it counts, especially in the Muslim world.

Wake up America - you are being out maneuvered by your foe.

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Maradona Says Yeh Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:
Diego Maradona is not a familiar name to Americans.
For the rest of the world, the name Diego Maradona is as powerful as the name Michael Jordan, he is the greatest soccer player since Pele.

Maradona wants to meet Ahmadinejad.
Maradona has already met both Castro and Chavez.
You guessed it - Maradona is vehemently anti-US.
In his own translated words: "I'm there with the people of Iran, really with all my heart."

This is no small item.
Maradona - a legend larger than Babe Ruth - is giving approval to Iran and to Ahmadinejad.
Maradona - an icon larger than Bruce Springsteen - has given testimonial to Iran.
The United States has yet to realize the significance of these gestures.

In the arena of propaganda, truth is less important than image.
The image of Iran has now been elevated.
Iran will be much more difficult to reign in.

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Saudi Split Personality
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis just arrested 28 people across Saudi Arabia.
The people were arrested for planning terror attacks.
The report from the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) announced that al Qaeda affiliated terrorists were arrested in Riyadh in Mecca and in Medina.
The Saudis have been and will continue to be targets of al Qaeda terror.

Saudi Arabia is caught in a Catch - 22.
On the one hand, it is Saudi educational institutions that created al Qaeda.
On the other hand, as victims of terror, the Saudis are now partnered with the West in the fight against Islamic extremism.
Is Saudi Arabia a supporter of terror or is Saudi Arabia a fighter of terror?

The Saudi royal family is large and out of control, Saudi Arabia is being pulled in all directions.
That makes it all the more important for the West and the US to demand that all evidence of Saudi participation and sponsorship in terror be made public and then it must be condemned.

We cannot allow the Saudi split personality to handcuff United States policy towards Saudi Arabia.

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Placating Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian press has been full of the picture of Ahmadinejad at the Hajj, the Muslim pilgrimage to the Kaabah in the Saudi city of Mecca.
Press from other Arab countries has picked up the story.
The photo of Ahmadinejad has been plastered across the Arab world.

Why all this publicity for Ahmadinejad?
Because the Arab world is afraid of Shiite Iran.
Because the Saudis think an invite to Islam's holiest site - in the center of the Sunni capital - will placate Iran.

Ahmadinejad was honored and pleased.
He looked uncharacteristically neat and fashionable - wearing an all-white tunic and sandals and sporting a groomed beard and cropped hair.

But the Shiites hate the Sunnis and the Sunnis hate the Shiites.
It all dates back to the conflict over the succession of Muhammad.
The Shiites lost and the Sunnis massacred the Shiites and their leader Hussein in Karbala.
That piece of history is the most important memory in all of Shiite tradition.

The Sunnis are right in fearing the Iranians, they are wrong in thinking that the Iranians can be placated.

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Drama in the Muslim World
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I like to alert people when something dramatic happens in the Muslim world.

Something dramatic happened this week.
333 Iranian activists, academics and intellectuals published a public statement that was reported in the reformist newspaper Rooz.

The group wants Iran to accept the international community's request to freeze nuclear development in exchange for lifting the embargo on Iran.
The group asserts that this step would be in the best interests of Iran and benefit the region.

"While Israel and the White House adopt a confused stance regarding the NIE (National Intelligence Estimate), the Iranian government must also take advantage of the opportunity that was created to prepare the groundwork for strengthening peace."

I agree.

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Hit Islamic Jihad
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Over the last few days Israel has been hitting Gaza by air.
Islamic Jihad leaders and Qassam rocket hit squads have been targeted.

In all, 11 terrorist targets have been assassinated.
Hitting specific targeted individuals is no small feat, it requires a combination of excellent intel and accurate marksmanship.

There are several reasons for these Israeli air strikes and the targeted attacks.
#1: the most obvious is to respond to the constant barrage of rockets that Islamic Jihad has been launching against Israel.
#2: the strategic reason is to strike hard and accurately from the air in order to avoid a ground invasion.

We all know that hitting from the air is much safer but air strikes have other risks, especially "collateral damage" - a euphemism for hurting other people who may be around the terrorists.

Israel does not want to invade Gaza.
The risks are high and the costs are great.
For now Israel will keep up the pressure and continue to strike from the air.
They will be successful as long as they have good intel and good aim.

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Iran Gets its Nuke Fuel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Russians delivered the first load of uranium to Iran yesterday.
We are traveling down a dangerous road.

Quite frankly, I was shocked by President Bush's comments.
"If the Russians are willing to do that, which I support, then the Iranians do not need to learn how to enrich."
"If the Iranians accept that uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there's no need for them to learn how to enrich."

Theoretically, yes, there is no "need" for the Iranians to learn how to enrich on their own, but we are talking about Iran. And there is still no way for us, for the US, for the West, to monitor what Iran is really doing with the freshly arrived nuclear material because there are no inspections.

Iranians say it will be used for civilian purposes - but there is no transparency.
Russians say that the Iranians promise to keep it in one place - but that is very small comfort.

If we are not given the ability to monitor Iran, Iran should not get anything nuclear.
Trusting the Russians is risky business.
The Russians are prostitutes, they will do anything for the money.

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Iran Opens 2 Factories in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrians opened up huge new factories, built by the Iranians, on Thursday.

The factories are the first new manufacturing plants to be built in Syria in a very long time --- and by foreign investment no less.
One is an automobile factory, the other is a cement factory.
Both are greatly needed in Syria.
Iran knows what it is doing.

Syrian President Bashar Assad spoke at the opening ceremonies. He said: "Inaugurating this plant in partnership with our Iranian brothers and officials is a response to those who tried to circulate (information) that relations between the two countries have been shaken."
"I confirm, on this occasion, that relations will not be shaken for any reason or under any circumstances." Iranian press association SANA quoted Assad.

Iran is on the move, protecting itself and building bridges.
Iran is cementing ties, one by one, with the Arab and Muslim countries in attendance at the Annapolis Summit.

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The House Wants to Know
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday the US House passed a bill against water boarding.
What do they have against water boarding? That is a discussion for another time, the bill must still pass the Senate and be signed by the president.

This is the important part:
Attached to the bill was a clause.
70% of the intelligence budget will be withheld by Congress if the House and Senate intelligence committees are not briefed about the Israeli attack against the Syrian nuclear facility on September 6, 2007.

What does one have to do with the other? Nothing.
This is classic "pork-barrel politics." Legislators sign onto a bill they do not agree with in order to get something they really want.

Congress really wants to know what happened. Congress wants to know how Israel and the United States gathered their intelligence.

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New Saudi-Iran Nexus
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaging in a diplomatic dance.
If the United States does not pay careful attention to these goings-on in the Middle East US interests might be totally subverted.

The Saudi King just invited Iranian President Ahmadinejad for a visit.
Ahmadinejad is invited to attend the Haj, the Pilgrimage, later this month.
During the Haj Muslims world over journey to Mecca to visit the Kabbah, the big black rock.
This is the very first time any Iranian president has been invited to participate in the Haj.

This invitation was not a spontaneous, generous act.
Saudis and Iranians are bitter enemies and arch rivals.
Saudis and Iranians observe completely different forms of Islam.
The Saudis really do not want Iran to become nuclear.
The Annapolis conference was an attempt to unify the Muslims against Iran.
And now Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Iran.

What is going on here?
The Saudis are trying to protect themselves against the ire of Iran.

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Iran Calls US Assessment a Lie
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Larijani was the Iranian nuclear negotiator for several years.
Ali Larijani was the point man for the Islamic Republic.
Ali Larijani recently resigned.

On Wednesday Larijani delivered a speech at Ferdowsi University in the Iranian city of Mashad.

In the speech the former Iranian nuclear negotiator called the US intelligence estimate "a baseless lie."

He said that there was no truth to the assessment and that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program 4 years ago, in the fall of 2003.

Ali Larijani was a man never to be trusted or believed before.
But now we have a dilemma, which is the better source?
Whom do we trust, the US assessment or the previous Iranian nuclear negotiator?

I go with Ali Larijani.

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British Intel Says No To Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunday Telegraph, a well respected English paper, recently lashed out against the United States Intelligence Estimate.

The Sunday Telegraph quoted British intelligence chiefs as saying that the United States was duped by Iran.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that the US was duped by believing that Iran shelved their nuclear weapons program back in 2003.

Nothing can be further from the truth.

To assume that would be a fatal mistake by the US and US Intelligence Services.

Meanwhile the Iranians submitted a formal Letter of Complaint to the United States via the Swiss Embassy in Teheran.

The letter charges the US with espionage and with violating international law. The complaint is based on the Intelligence Estimate.

Iran believes that the US could not have gotten their information without spying.

Now that is funny.

The Estimate clears Iran and Iran comes right back and charges the United States with spying.

You can not make these things up.

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Student Protests in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

For the second time in a single week Iranian students have held demonstrations on the campus of Teheran University.
The demonstrations were reported on Iranian radio.

Iranian students are protesting the crackdown against student activist who are challenging the government.
Hundreds of students have joined the protests.

So what?
Remember, we are talking about Iran.

Students are publicly protesting against the establishment despite the risk.
Students are protesting the treatment of their fellow activists.
Student protests added to teacher protests put in questions the lifespan of the current regime.

The significance of these demonstrations is immense.
The end result from these demonstrations may be cataclysmic.

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Important Words
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East is fraught with conflict.
The conflicts are not always military.
Some conflicts are about words.
Some conflicts are about facts on the ground.

Nomenclature versus ideology versus reality.

The word "settler": packs a wallop in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis.

Right now there is a huge row developing over that specific word.
The United States, the United Nations and the Palestinians on one side, Israel is on the other side.

The controversy centers on about 307 new apartments being built in the Jerusalem community of Har Homa. The Israelis say that Har Homa is in Jerusalem proper and therefore the building is totally legitimate.

Everyone else is calling the community a "settlement" and the building "expansion."

Har Homa is situated off of Hebron Boulevard which runs from Jerusalem to Bethlehem. The distance between Jerusalem and Bethlehem is less than a mile.

Har Homa is not new, it broke ground in 1997 and probably has 10,000 residents already living there. It is not a suburban settlement and that is why Israel has designated it as a Jerusalem neighborhood.

Palestinians call the area Jabal abu Gneim.

If the United States and the United Nations start replacing Har Homa with Jabal abu Gneim the tide of the discussion will have shifted.

At that point, Israel will have lost the argument.

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It's Just Confusing
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Donald Kerr, the deputy director of National Intelligence testified before the House Committee on Intelligence yesterday.

Kerr testified to the Committee that Iran posed a nuclear weapons threat.
Kerr testified that Iran had a factory for uranium enrichment which is the "most important" element of any future nuclear program.

In trying to explain the mixed message and the ambiguity between US policy and the US Intelligence Assessment Kerr said: "We did not in any way suggest that Iran was benign for the future."
The Committee was not convinced.

It is confusing.
It is ambiguous.
It is a mixed message.
It is a mess.
And they call this "intelligence."

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Conflict Over Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The new US threat assessment asserting that Iran abandoned nuclear weapons programming several years ago has created some expected and some unexpected responses.

As expected:
The IAEA report vindicates Iran.
The Iranians and Ahmadinejad are saying that the "Truthfulness of Iran [was] once again proved by its ill-wishers."
The Russian foreign minister went so far as to say that there was no proof that Iran ever had nuclear weapons program.

Rather unexpectedly:
Former UN nuclear chief Hans Blix expressed surprised at the report.
Israel was particularly shocked by the publication - even if they had advance knowledge of the report.
Even the pro-peace left is saying that the threat of Iran as significant.

The end result of this IAEA assessment might be the rise of serious chasm and contention between nations.

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NIE-New Word for Intelligence
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The US National Intelligence Estimate gives a whole new understanding to the word "intelligence."

Their newest report concludes that all 16 US intelligence agencies concur that the Iranians stopped their atomic weapons program in 2003.
To give some perspective, this is the same group whose endorsement was used to invade Iraq.

The biggest issue with the report is not whether Iran stopped their plan in 2003. The biggest issue is what Iran hopes to do now with their current program.
Iran is certainly receiving Uranium from Russia, just a few days ago the Russia foreign minister admitted that he was shipping uranium to Iran under the IAEA.

The fact that the US Estimate cannot conclude that Iran is not moving toward nuclear weapons does not mean that Iran is not indeed moving forward.
"Conclude" is the operative word.
In the words of the report:
"We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart the program."

In other words, in plain English, assume the worst.

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Another Resignation in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Most people have never heard of Mahmoud Farshidi.
Unless, that is, you are the teacher or parent of a school age child in Iran.

Farshidi was the minister of education in Iran until he resigned on Sunday.
Farshidi's resignation marks the 5th minister to step down and out of Ahmadinejad's government.
The most noted resignation came last month when Ali Larasi stepped down.
Larasi was the Iranian nuclear negotiator, he was also a close advisor to Ahmadinejad.
Larasi submitted his resignation three times on previous occasions.

One small factoid provides us with an enormous amount of information.
The resignation of Farshidi points to a significant deterioration in the power of Ahmadinejad and in his once iron fisted control over Iran.

Iranian teachers have been protesting on the streets of Teheran.
They want raises and some of their protests have been very violent.
If the educational system in Iran is crumbling and if teachers are dissatisfied there is little hope for the Islamic revolution to continue much longer.
The all powerful internet and satellite web access will teach Iranian youth outside the classroom.

These stories will not be covered in mainstream Western press and that is a shame.

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Iran Bans Rap
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran wants to ban rap music.

Iran is calling rap music obscene.

Iran will be passing laws banning the distinctive music style that talks to a heavy rhythm and beat.

The interesting twist to this new cultural ban is that it is the music that is being banned - not the lyrics.

The genre has been nixed - not the prose or the poetry.
Banning the words maybe. But banning the sound?

Passing a law against a type of music can only happen in a theocratic dictatorship like Iran. It would never happen in a society that is actively engaged in and supportive of culture.

There are alternatives to an outright ban.
Banning a genre because it may encourage content that might be objectionable is beyond the pale of cultural critique.

Iran has got it topsy turvy.

Iran is killing the medium when what Iranian cultural police are really opposed to is the message.

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Dracula's Sister
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

During the Annapolis Conference Israeli Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni ran head first into one of the classic conflicts between East and West.

Livni was a woman in a man's world.
Unlike Rice who represented the host country, Livni represented "the other."

Frans Timmermans, the Dutch Minister for European Affairs, is the person who released this deplorable story.
Timmermans described the situation this way: "They shun her like she is Count Dracula's younger sister."
Timmermans actually heard Livni tell Arab foreign ministers to stop treating her as a pariah.
Timmermans heard Livni ask: "Why doesn't anyone want to shake my hand?" "Why doesn't anyone want to be seen speaking to me?"

Behavior of this sort is unacceptable.
Shame on all those people in attendance in Annapolis who witnessed these unjust acts and kept silent.
Shame on the perpetrators of these archaic and prejudicial acts and shame on those who let the deeds slide by in the name of international harmony.

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Bin Laden's Message
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Another Osama bin Laden message was broadcast on al Jazeera yesterday.

This is the 4th message bin Laden has transmitted since September 7th.
This time the message was directed toward Europeans.
Bin Laden told Europeans to confront their leaders and to stop their countries from helping the United States in Afghanistan.

There are lessons to be learned about bin Laden from this broadcast:
Bin Laden feels secure enough to issue broadcasts with relative frequency.
Bin Laden feels that European involvement in Afghanistan is significant - and if it was diminished he might have a better chance at defeating US forces there.

Bin Laden knows that European leadership is on side of the United States against him, but he also knows that the masses might be swayed. That is why the used the argument that he alone was responsible for 9-11, that responsibility does not lie with the "innocent women and children that the US murders."

This tape, like with every other bin Laden tape has one objective: to influence opinion through propaganda and disinformation.

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China Was in Annapolis for a Reason
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Annapolis Conference was more than a peace summit.
It was an opportunity for countries that rarely exchange ideas to talk.
Like China and Israel.

The very fact that China, the most populous country in the world, even attended the Conference means that it was important.
The Chinese representative in Annapolis was a high ranking member of government. It was Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. And on Wednesday afternoon Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert went over to Yang Jiechi's Washington hotel for a meeting.

On the agenda were two items, obligatory commentary on the Palestinians and the role that China plays with Iran.
Israel wanted China to know how important it is for regional stability to put a cork on Iran when it comes to nuclear weapons.
Israel wanted China to know that Israel knows that China is one of few countries in the world with influence over Iran.

An unstable Middle East means increased oil prices.
China is a $100 billion a year energy client of Iran.
China has no oil and every year China needs more and more.
China does not want oil prices to skyrocket.
Israel was asking China to take note and, even more, to get involved.

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Annapolis Gets a Bad Rap
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Annapolis is getting a bad rap.
True, the initial plan for the Conference is a major flop.
The dual declaration, endorsed by Palestinians and Israeli, was pie in the sky.
But to the credit of the Americans, the Annapolis Conference has been reconfigured and, despite it all, there might be some positive long term ramifications.
The question is, are they worth it?

Positive ramification # 1:
The idea of the United States heading a coalition of Arab and Muslim countries, galvanized around helping the Palestinian Arabs, is a huge feather in America's diplomatic cap.

Positive ramification # 2:
Syria has openly declared, even published in a Syrian national newspaper, that their express purpose in attending is to put the breaks on an over all acceptance of Israel by Arab and Muslim states. In that, they will fail and failure for Syria is good for the rest of the world.

There is one great, big, major negative ramification of the Annapolis Conference.
The United States is leaving a long time friend and ally out to dry.
Israel is on its own among enemies.

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Why All the Others Are in Annapolis
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Why were more than 40 countries invited to attend the Annapolis Conference?
Why are so many of those countries Muslim?

Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister, answered that question.
En route to Washington, Livni explained to the press corps traveling with her that the Palestinians are unable to close on a deal with Israel without the support of the other Arab and Muslim states.

The job of Arab and Muslim states in Annapolis is to support the Palestinians.
Their job is not to drive the negotiations or to set the terms of the negotiations. Their job is to give power and credibility to an agreement when it is reached.
Their presence provides the Palestinians with the ability to decide on peace.
Neighboring countries, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan need to sign off on an agreement.

Palestinians are too insecure to make their most important decisions alone.
Having Muslim and Arab countries in attendance at Annapolis is a benefit, not a drawback, to the Conference.

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Hamas Insult
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is shocked by the Arab Leagues endorsement of the Annapolis meeting.
Hamas interprets the endorsement as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause.

Actually, I am not shocked that Hamas is shocked.
Hamas has never been able to read the political map and Hamas has no understanding of regional politics.
If Hamas could read the map they would never have thrown out Fatah while taking over Gaza.
Yes, Saudi Arabia sponsors Hamas and yes, Syria both houses and sponsors Hamas but the Annapolis Conference is not about Hamas.

The reality is that The Region disapproves of the actions and activities of Hamas in every area with the exception of terrorist acts against Israel - and even that is no longer fashionable in some quarters of Muslim leadership.

Hamas and religious extremists are real threats to everybody.
Hamas does not represent Palestinians.
Hamas should not be surprised to discover their budget and future contributions further reduced.
Hamas needs to get with the program.

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Annapolis, Anchors Away
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I sure hope they are using pencil to keep track of which countries are and which countries are not planning to appear at the US Naval Academy for the Annapolis Conference.

The Conference begins Monday night in DC before moving on to Annapolis proper on Tuesday morning and many countries are still waffling.
Why?
Some countries are predicating attendance on topics that are relevant to them, topics that they want included on the agenda.
Other countries want to be assured of the conclusions the Conference will come to even before the Conference starts.

Saudi Arabia has said yes.
Syria will not attend unless it is clear that the Golan Heights will be one of the topics receiving top priority.
The Arab League will be there only if there is promise of al real solution to the Palestinian/Israel situation. If they attend we will know, in advance, that progress of sorts has been made.

The United States is scrambling - making promises and luring regional partners. They are working the phones non-stop.
They probably have a better chance of pulling a rabbit out from a hat.

Whatever happens, happens.
Monday night it's "anchors away" any which way.

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In London
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Next week as the world's attention focuses on the happenings in Annapolis there will be another meeting taking place.
That meeting takes place in London.

In London. the new Iranian nuclear negotiator, Saed Jalili, will be meeting with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.
The objective of the London meeting will be to work out a new angle with Iran in an attempt to stop Iranians from moving into the arena of irresponsible nuclear behavior.

The notion is to create a joint international nuclear project.
By making it a joint project other countries, like Russia or like Germany, will be involved together with Iran. Cooperation by its very nature means that the countries will be open to inspections and other outside observers and influences.

It is a brilliant concept and one that may very well work out.
International peer pressure may actually force Iran to act responsibly - at last.

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A Joint Something
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The centerpiece of the Annapolis Conference was to have been a joint declaration, Palestinians and Israelis openly declaring shared intentions and commitments.
According to leaks seeping out about the Annapolis Conference, that declaration is not to be.

Instead of calling it a "declaration" the word "document" is now being used.
Instead of calling it "joint" initials are being inserted in order to identify the authors of each paragraph, "P" for Palestinian authorship, "I" for Israeli authorship.
The most glaring omission in the entire document is Gaza, not a word about the Palestinians living in Gaza.

According to one of the "P" paragraphs, the lifetime of this document extends for only eight months.
Eight months is a comfortable period of time for the Bush administration to flex before the second and final term of this president is over.
The "I" paragraph, by the way, specifically states that there is no deadline.

The Palestinians and Israelis seem to have one point of agreement.
They have agreed to disagree.

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Chavez & Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, made his 4th visit to Iran to visit his friend and compatriot Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In a joint press conference Chavez gleefully predicted that oil prices will hit $200 a barrel if the United States attacks Iran.

"Soon we will not talk about dollars," Chavez proclaimed, because the dollar is falling in value and the "empire of the dollar is crashing."
He said: "naturally, by the crash of the dollar, America's empire will crash."
Chavez was dovetailing on the statements made by Ahmadinejad on Sunday at the OPEC meeting.
Speaking about the US dollar, Ahmadinejad called it a "worthless piece of paper."

These two thugs, Chavez and Ahmadinejad are united in their hatred of the USA.
They hate that the United States is a superpower.
They hate that the United States is an economy that propels and fuels the world.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad hate the United States because, despite their own great supplies of energy, their countries play barely a minor role in the direction of the world and world economies.

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Problems in Annapolis
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Just one week before the Annapolis Conference is scheduled to begin and things are definitely out of order.
On Friday Condi Rice postponed her visit to the Middle East.
Had the secretary of state made the trip as planned, she might have been able to avert this backslide.

Negotiations about a joint peace statement between Israelis and the Palestinians have come to a standstill.
Insiders are saying that the Palestinians want to start back at the very beginning.
Insiders are saying that the Palestinians withdrew on every agreement.

As it is the Conference is scheduled to last only one day.
As it is the Conference is to serve only as a forum for the reading of prepared statements, not for real negotiating - there is no time for anything more substantial.

I think that the Palestinians are engaged in tactical maneuvers.
I think that the Palestinians are hoping that the 40 plus nations in attendance will put pressure on the United States to pressure Israel to make even more and very serious concessions.
That's what I think.

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PA's Problem With: Israel A Jewish State
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The question is this: Why is recognizing Israel as the Jewish State such a major stumbling block for the Palestinians?
After all, even Yasser Arafat recognized Israel's right to exist so isn’t this the same thing?

The answer is: No, this is very different and it is a very important difference.
Calling Israel a Jewish State means that Israel was created and serves as a democratic state with Jewish vision and goals. It means that Israel was created as a haven to protect Jews from persecution and from Antisemitism. It means that the raison d'etre of Israel is the perpetuation of the Jewish People.

This is a pretty hard concept to accept for people who want to destroy Israel.
Destroying Israel has been the raison d'etre of Palestinian leadership. They never publicly preach mutual co-existence...never.

Palestinians cannot accept that Israel exists in their region as a Jewish state. They do not want to believe that Israel cannot be overtaken by the demographic changes in the region. That Israel is there for the long haul.

This is a difficult concept for Palestinians to accept.
Until Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish state, they will not have a Palestinian state.

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Annapolis, OK
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like the Annapolis Conference is ready to go.
It looks like the invitations will be specially hand delivered by Condi Rice when she returns to the region early next week.

The program looks like this:
Monday, November 26th, dinner in Washington, DC with President Bush.
Tuesday, November 27th, off to Annapolis.
It's a 35-45 minute trip, expect it to take an hour.

There will be speeches and a joint statement/document will be read.
The document will cover issues of common ground between Israel and the Palestinians.
The document will proscribe future steps aimed at fulfilling the Road Map.
The entire program will be very short.

The hope of all the parties is that the conference will set in motion a series of events that will provide the groundwork for a step-by-step resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

One of the hanging points, as of this writing, is whether the Palestinians will recognize Israel as the Jewish State.
To me, that still looks like castles in the air.

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Rice Needs to Push Both Sides
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice, chief diplomat for the United States of America just let her personal perspective on the Annapolis Conference be known.

It was not a faux pas.
It was a clear statement.

She said: Israelis must be prepared to make "difficult and painful sacrifices to some of their longest-held aspirations" at the Annapolis Conference.

She said: the region at this point is at an explosive level and "at stake is nothing less than the future of the Middle East."
There is much hyperbole in her words. There is also an opportunity for Israel.

If Israelis are prepared to make great sacrifices for the sake of an agreement they can pave the way allowing for a true, workable, solution to find a foothold.

Publicly, I do not hear Rice saying the same things to the Palestinians.
Privately, I know she is telling them to be flexible but I do not hear her publicly trying to educate the Palestinians about the need to sacrifice fundamental national myths in order to make peace work.

There is something wrong with that equation.

I am not looking for equality, I am looking for understanding.
The United States needs to understand that both sides need to openly embrace sacrifice for the sake of peace.

Previous US administrations blamed Israel for the problem.
We know that does not work, it is time to switch gears and move forward.

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Palestinians See Limited Success
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmed Qureia, aka abu Alla, is the chief Palestinian negotiator for the Annapolis Conference.

On Tuesday abu Alla announced that there has been only "limited achievement" with Israel.
He said there were still "obstacles and difficulties we have to work out before the coming conference."

I hope these statements do not become self-fulfilling prophecies.
Abu Alla is not an optimist.
Abu Allah is considered to be a real hard liner who does not cave in during negotiations.
Abu Alla is experienced in the political arena and has never buckled under to United States intimidation, Israeli intimidation or even Palestinian intimidation.

Abu Alla has a problem.
He knows what he wants from Israel, but he cannot deliver anything from the Palestinians.

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Hamas' Double Message
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has been sending out some conflicting messages the past few weeks. That should not surprise anyone, but it does make for more difficulty in trying to predict the future behaviors of Hamas.

On Friday Hamas' former Foreign Minister Mahmoud al Zahar said that they will soon be taking over the West Bank.
As soon as Israel withdraws, he said, Hamas will take over.
This would echo exactly what Hamas did in Gaza.
But Ismail Hanyieh, the prime minister of Hamas has made it clear that Hamas has no aspiration for the West Bank.

This is not the first inconsistency.
The reality is that Hamas cannot wait to take over the West Bank and trounce Abbas and Fatah - but at this moment they cannot do it.
Israel is there and Fatah forces are more capable in the West Bank than they were in Gaza.

Hamas wants it bad.
Just listen to al Zahar: "we say to those in the West Bank, take a lesson from what happened in Gaza."
That sounds pretty clear and unequivocal to me.

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US Give $1 Million to Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has just promised $1 million, to be given at the end of the month, to provide a face lift for the Palestinian city of Nablus.

A promise from the US is like money in the bank.
The money is meant to show that the US is serious about helping if - big if - the Palestinians come on board the peace train.

We all know that $1 million from the US is a drop in the bucket.

The US is hoping that the easy million will help bolster Palestinian President Abbas in his leadership role and lend Abbas the security, stability and personal strength he lacks when it comes to making decisions.

The reality is that the money will hardly be noticed, but the promise of this money and more to come may have the impact the United States so wants.

Never underestimate the value of money in decision making.
Money does not buy friends, it buys leverage.
And leverage is exactly what the United States needs in Annapolis.

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Musharraf Knows Better
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States was satisfied when Pakistan's President/Dictator offered assurances that there will indeed be elections in mid February -"just a month later than was originally scheduled."

The US has a problematic relationship with Musharraf.
The US has difficulty setting limits for Musharraf and difficulty condemning one aspect of his policy and decision making while supporting another.
As the deputy secretary of defense said, Musharraf: "is an indispensable ally in the war on terrorism."

Over the past year Musharraf's hold on society and his power base have weakened. During the same period his tyrannical hold over Pakistan has strengthened. There is an inverse proportion at work here.

The clear fact is that Musharraf rules with an iron fist.
The return of former president Bhutto last month was the catalyst that awakened people's desire for a return to total democracy. Musharraf's response was violence and a severe crackdown over Pakistani society.

The United States should be smarter.
The United States should have anticipated this response when they insisted on Bhutto's return to Pakistan.

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Finally China
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

China has spoken.
China has finally spoken out about Iran's nukes.

On Thursday, after a particularly flamboyant and hyperbolic speech by Ahmadinejad about how Iran now has 3000 uranium centrifuges in their Natanz nuclear facility and how Iran's nuclear program is irreversible, China responded.

Why now?
What makes this speech different from so many other grandstanding opportunities seized by the Iranian leader?
3000, that's the reason.
3000 is seen as the point of no return by Israel-and China knows that.
Iran is moving dangerously close to provoking Israel to strike - and Ahmadinejad knows that, too.

China announced that together with Europe and the UN they will work to "defuse" the situation.
It is important to note that the United States is glaringly missing from that group.

China imports $100 billion of energy from Iran every year.
China can never be replaced as a client for Iran.
China will be the key to any solution with Iran.

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Musharraf is a Thug
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf is a study in contrasts.

Musharraf is called "president" but he obtained his position after seizing power in 1999 by way of a coup.
Musharraf now rules Pakistan with an iron fist, exemplified by the state of emergency law now imposed on the country.

Musharraf is the leader of a strongly Muslim country.
Musharraf is also strongly pro-US and pro-Western.
Musharraf has begun a movement to liberalize Pakistan and has promised January elections.
Pakistan under Musharraf stores an enormous supply of nuclear missiles.

We, the United States and the West, need Musharraf in our fight against terror.
Musharraf and the West share some important goals and are in sync in several world matters, but that does not make him an ally.
We must identify Pervez Musharraf for who he is and remember what he represents.

Stability in Pakistan is essential.
Musharraf's pro-Western attitude is essential.
Musharraf's successor, in all probability, will not be as pro-Western as the present day president.

That is the situation in Pakistan today.

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Finally The PA Arrests Someone
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority actually arrested 2 of their own people.
Two members of the al-Aqsa Brigades were arrested for violating the security initiative that is now taking place in Nablus.

The idea is that, in Nablus, the Palestinian Authority has bolstered forces in order to take control of the security situation in the city.
In order to arrest these men a gunfight that lasted hours ensued in the Balata refugee camp inside Nablus.

Palestinian leadership is trying to impress the United States.
Palestinian leadership is trying to prove that they are now starting to take charge. According to a senior PA official this action "shows the PA's willingness to stop anyone disrupting the peace as well as uphold all its agreements."

The problem is that one single event on one single day proves very little.
The true test lies in the capability of the PA to truly clamp down on terror.
Is the PA capable of passing that test?
I doubt it - but only time will tell.

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Blair Understands
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Tony Blair, the former UK Prime Minister and now the Quartet's envoy to the Middle East, spoke at the Saban Forum on Sunday.

Blair said that Israel cannot be expected to withdraw from any territories while they are being attacked and while rockets are being launched from Gaza.

Blair said that the Palestinians now had to make "difficult decisions" about security.

Finally, someone understands. Blair has been really focusing on the region for the past 6 months. He is up to speed on the very basic issue that guides all Palestinian/Israeli interaction. Palestinians must be able to deliver on security before any progress towards peace or statehood can develop with Israel.

Blair understands, but Blair has little power. He does however have Bush's ear and, maybe, just maybe, he will be able to talk some sense into President George Bush and his ill advised Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Maybe, but I doubt it.

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28th Anniversary of Iran
By Micah Halpern

November 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the 28th anniversary of the hostage taking at the US Embassy in Iran. 52 Americans were held captive for 444 days in Tehran.

We all remember in different ways.
In Teheran today there were rallies commemorating the event.
Many people attended, but not masses.
Of the hundreds of attendees most were students, a lot of them teenagers.
The most popular banner read: "We will not compromise with America even for a moment," a quote from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Other banners read: "Sanctions Will Not Impact Us."

The rallies told me something.
They appeared to be coordinated, staged, but more for us, the outside world, than for Iran.
It seems that the Iranians are making a significant play for world Muslim support.

Externally, on an almost daily basis, events are held and statements are made about how Iran is standing up and defying the United States.
Internally, Ahmadinejad seems to be weakening.

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Tunnels in Gaza Do Not Mean Peace
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Israel discovered seven secret smuggling tunnels in Gaza yesterday.
The tunnels are used for smuggling arms and illegal cash into Gaza.

The weapons - guns, ammo, rockets - are needed for a two-fold purpose:
to attack Israel and to weaken Fatah.
the money is used to buy more weapons and to pay salaries and bribes.

Tunnels like the ones just discovered by Israel are flourishing throughout Gaza.
At the same time, Israel and the Palestinians are embarking on plans to forge ahead and make peace.
The pieces just don't fit together.
The ramifications of this discovery are lost on the US Secretary of State and on her new, unofficial, advisor Jimmy Carter.

Condi Rice and Jimmy Carter truly and honestly believe that by creating more political Palestinian power the problem of Palestinian security will improve.
Nothing is further from the truth.
This concept was proven wrong before and will be proven wrong again.

Security is a sine qua non on the peace front.
If the Palestinians cannot prove that they can control terror and keep the peace on the street now, today, it is pure folly to think that they will be able to keep the peace a week or even a month after a treaty is signed with Israel.

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Oil Deal in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 31, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Syria just signed a $2.6 billion oil refinery deal with Iran, Venezuela and Malaysia.
It happened yesterday.

The refinery will be a joint project with shared revenues.
33% for Iran
26% for Venezuela
26% for Malaysia
only 15% for Syria

Why is this so important?
It is important because:
The oil will come from Iran and then be shipped around the world, wherever the market needs it.
It is important because:
Venezuela and Iran and Syria are all in cahoots to unseat US control of the world and because, on the other side of the world, Malaysia agrees with them.
It is not just important, it is very important.

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Syria Thought War Was Coming
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Last week, Syria was preparing for war against Israel.
Why? Because last week Syria thought Israel was going to attack during the Arab feast of Id al Fidr.

So says Al Khaleej, a paper from the United Arab Emirates, in a story that was printed on Thursday.
According to the paper the Syrians called for help.
Syria had a long conversation with Turkey begging them not to permit Israel to fly over Turkish airspace.
And then in a game of diplomatic telephone tag calls went from Syria to Russia to China to the United States and finally to Israel.

Israel, it became obvious, was not preparing for war.
Syria, it became obvious, was.
Syria was moving troops - on the ground and in the air.
Syria was getting serious.

Syria is a dangerous country.
President Bashar Assad will do anything to show his people and his neighbors in the Arab world that he is strong and in charge.
It is a myth, Bashar is very weak and barely holding on to his country.
In the Arab world, myths are critical.
In the Arab world myths are more powerful that reality.

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Syria Complains:Israel Chops Cherry Trees
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the Syrians sent a formal, written, protest to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.

The complaint stated that Israel is violating the human rights of Syrian citizens.

What are the Israelis doing?
They are chopping down cherry trees in the Golan Heights.
The cherry trees in question grow in a Druze village called Majd el Shams.

The citizens of the village are all Israeli, and they all have relatives in Syria.
According to Syria the Golan Heights still belongs to them and Israel has no right to cut down cherry trees on Syrian land.

On the serious side:
Cutting down fruit trees really is an offense and should only be done in the most extreme cases.
Actually, the Bible prohibits cutting down a fruit tree in Israel and there is reason to seriously question and examine the situation.

On the absurd side:
Syria, one of the greatest abusers of human rights in the world is championing the rights of trees.

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Rice Gets Advice From Carter
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Jimmy Carter had a meeting in the State Department.
Carter was meeting with Secretary of State Rice.
Condi was picking Jimmy's brain.
She was interested in talking about the prospects for an Israeli -Palestinian deal. She was looking for historical perspective and guidance.

Clinton. Albright. Baker. Kissinger. Dennis Ross brains were also picked by Rice.
So why would the secretary of state choose to talk to Carter?

Carter, who is guilty of inexcusable criticism of her boss President George Bush.
Carter, whose essays and interviews prove that he has no understanding of the Mid East conflict.
Carter, whose book contradicts documented history, who either does not remember or who chooses not to remember what really happened.
Carter is the worst person to get advice from. Unless, of course, you are looking for an off-the-wall solution that ignores realities on the ground.

Is this off base thinking and analysis what we can expect from Rice and the Administration for the next 14 months?

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Gaza is Complicated
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is not supposed to be negotiating with Hamas.
But sometimes, for special need cases, they do.

Israelis and members of the Gaza business community talk when Israel sees these meetings as the only way to avoid mass decay and social catastrophe among the Palestinians.
Right now, the people of Gaza are truly starving.
And Israel is trying to help save those starving people, the very same people who put Hamas in power.

Israel is talking with Gazans for a reason - to help get food to the starving.
The talks have been going on for some time now.
They are not high level meetings but practical facts-on-the-ground meetings.
The talks between Israel and Gazans continue even as Israeli sanctions against Hamas increase.
It is a complicated situation.

Yesterday, on al Arabiya, the most popular pan Arab TV station, Mahmoud Abbas spilled the beans about these talks.
He said: "There are meetings taking place between Hamas and Israel, there were meetings held at Erez ( a crossing point between Israel and Gaza) and there are ongoing meetings in other places."

I hope this public announcement does not cause starving people to remain hungry.
Israel has kept the meetings quiet in order to best help the starving Palestinians.
Israel cares about starving Palestinians.
Does the Palestinian president care about starving Palestinians?

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Osama's New Tapes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Arabia for Muslim Arab's only.
That is Osama bin Laden's credo

The bin Laden audio tapes that were recently posted on Muslim web sites and were partially heard on al Jazeera clearly and precisely demonstrate the mind set of al Qaeda's leader.
Arabia for Muslim Arab's only is a message that plays very well in the Middle East.

It is one of bin Laden's most important and galvanizing concepts.
All non-Muslims must be driven out of Arab lands.
Unite against the foreigner who is on Arab land.
Deny the words of the foreigner.
Repel the foreigner.

It is an age old concept within Islam.
It is a concept that suggests that the unity of Islam and the right of Islam to control all Arab lands dates back to the Muslim conquest itself.

Any power that permits outside foreign forces to enter their land - especially military forces - is a traitor to the credo.
Traitors must be toppled and replaced by true Arab Muslim leaders who will reject the foreigners.
Traitors are those who weakly crumble and invite foreigners into their land and allow the foreigners to stimulate a civil war between Muslims.

Bin Laden has spoken these words out loud.
It is our responsibility to listen and to respond.

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A Hamas Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There is almost never internal critique within the Arab world.
Especially political critique.
And then, along comes Ghazi Hamad.
Ghazi Hamad was the spokesperson for Hamas.

Hamad was the person who spun the Hamas takeover in Gaza that ousted Fatah from the area this past June. Hamad was the person who put a spin on everything that had anything to do with Hamas.

Hamad just published a critical letter on a Palestinian website called AMAD.
In the letter he clearly calls the Hamas takeover of Gaza real mistake.

It did not unify Palestinians.
It did not garner support from the Muslim world.
It did the opposite.

Palestinians continue to be divided and Hamas continues to be isolated.

This outspoken attack by Hamad, a clear rejection of policy by a well known former insider, is a serious blow to Hamas.

For the record, Hamas leadership responded by labeling Ghazi Hamad a traitor. They backed up their assertion saying that he advocated talking with Israel.

That response comes as no surprise.

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Bush & WW III
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It was last Wednesday that President Bush spoke about an impending World War III if Iran was permitted to have nuclear weapons.
Ever since last Wednesday Iran has been pushing buttons across the diplomatic world and sending out press updates warning about this dangerous man named George Bush.

Finally, on Friday, the White House called the tumult a whole lot of-rhetoric.

First, the White House issued a statement saying that President George W. Bush was simply making "a rhetorical point" when he suggested that if Iran could make nuclear weapons, it could lead to World War III.
Next, Dana Perino the White House press secretary said the president was just "making a point." She said the president was emphasizing how dangerous it would be for the world if Iran gained nuclear weapons. She said: "The president was not making any war plans, and he wasn't making any declarations."

Iran, a pro at media manipulation, grabbed the original comment and with great diplomatic energy attempted to turn the tables to make the US President appear irresponsible.
So far Iran is being moderately successful in the Arab, Muslim and even in European arenas.

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Mubarak is "Unwell"
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The health of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has tongues wagging and rumors flying throughout Egypt and the Arab world.

Everywhere in the Arab world, newspapers are writing about it.
Everywhere that is, except Egypt, where writing on that subject is forbidden.
Even England - a country with a significant Arab population - picked up the story and the World Tribune ran a news piece on Friday.

Here is what I can piece together from all the rumors and reports:
Mubarak, 79 years old, collapsed last week as he was about to leave on a trip to Saudi Arabia. The trip was cancelled. Mubarak was also scheduled to leave for Germany to undergo medical tests. That trip, too, was cancelled. Mubarak was too weak to fly.

Several months ago similar rumors were swirling around.
After Arabic press around the world picked up the story, Mubarak did a slew of interviews to show that he was strong and still in charge.

There is much at stake here.
He might call himself "president" but Mubarak is a true dictator.
Egypt is the most significant country in the Middle East both in population and influence. Instability in Egypt sends waves throughout the region.

Mubarak controls Egypt with an iron hand encased in silk.
No one, not even the son he is grooming to take over his position, is capable of maintaining the calm Mubarak has commanded - except the military and police.

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He is A Nut and an Antisemite
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held a press conference last week during which he explained the problems facing the city of Bobruisk.
The problems, he said, were a direct result of having had Jews in the city.

He said: "This is a Jewish town, and Jews do not look after the cities in which they live. Take Israel for example, I was there and I saw it myself."
He said: "The status of the city improved only after the Jews left."
And then he urged the "Jews who have money" to return to Bobruisk.

Lukashenko is one of the biggest thugs on the planet.
Lukashenko has been called the last dictator.
Lukashienko gave refuge and even passports to many high level Iraqis who escaped to Belarus during the early stages of the War with Iraq.

Enough.
It is high time that the world came down hard on Alexander Lukashenko.

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Condi Thinks There's Progress
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Here's the good news:
Condi Rice was able to secure Egypt's support for the upcoming Peace Conference in Annapolis.
That's important, without Egypt the Conference could never happen.

Here's the disturbing news:
During her press conference with the Egyptian foreign minister the secretary of state hinted that the Conference will be held in late November or early December. That would be a second timetable delay. First, the Conference was moved from mid-November to end of November, now from end of November to the beginning of December.

The reason for the delay is to allow the Israeli and Palestinian sides to hammer out a mutually agreed upon document of objectives.
To quote Rice: "I do think the prospect of the meeting has given them (the Palestinians and Israelis) some momentum in the document that they are trying to forge."

The good news is that Condi Rice thinks things are happening.
The disturbing news is that they haven't happened yet.

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Deal: Hezbollah and Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It was a 3 for 1 deal.
That was the trade.
Two dead Lebanese Hezbollah bodies and one live Hezbollah prisoner for one dead Israeli body.

Yesterday Hezbollah and Israel completed a transfer.
The Lebanese had been killed this past summer in the war between Hezbollah and Israel. The Israeli was a civilian who had drowned in 2005. The current carried the body north where it was scooped up by Hezbollah.

The significance of this deal is enormous.
It is a dry run for Goldwasser and Regev, Israeli soldiers kidnapped last summer. If Lebanon and Israel could agree on this deal it means they can move ahead and agree on the exchange of the two most recent abductees.
Hezbollah has been known to be very difficult and to drive a very hard bargain in negotiations. Everything must be handled through third party negotiators - Israel does not negotiate with Hezbollah directly.

The success of this trade should be seen as a hopeful first step toward achieving even more difficult objectives.
This was a real time trial run.
This was proof that both parties are willing to put out in order to get back that which is important to them.

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Putin in Danger in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday Russia's Vladimir Putin arrives in Teheran.
According to the Interfax News Agency, the largest news company in Russia, a surprise awaits Putin in Iran.

Interfax is reporting that Russian intelligence is aware of a plot to either intended to either assassinate Putin using suicide bombers or to kidnap him.
The report asserts that the operatives have been trained and dispatched.

The Iranians totally discount the report.
The Iranians say that it is their enemies who engage in psychological warfare. The Iranians assert that Interfax is a place where Russian insiders often plant messages intended to torpedo policy.

Assassination or kidnapping, they both sound like viable threats that Russia cannot ignore and should take seriously.
I would hope that, at some point, Iran takes these threats seriously as well.

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Palestinians Are Entrenching
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The US Secretary of State is in the Middle East for a few days.
Her mission is to help Palestinian and Israeli diplomatic teams come up with a workable document to take to the Annapolis Conference.

Finally.
Finally, Secretary Rice is taking a realistic approach in the Middle East.
Finally, a sign that Secretary Rice sees and understands the dilemma posed by growing expectations of the parties in the Middle East.

Publicly, Palestinian leadership has raised the level of expectations so high that any and every conference will inevitably fail - it is all contrived, a ploy, a blackmail tactic.
Using rhetoric and the media they have created a situation in which any compromise will be seen as failure. They are publicly entrenching themselves in negotiating positions way, way beyond the realm of anything attainable from the point of view of either the United States or Israel.

Privately and in bilateral leadership discussions there seems to be some significant flexibility shown by the Abbas.

Interesting, isn't it?
We have a problem.

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Past Presidents: Shame on Them
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Two past presidents have broken protocol by criticizing the sitting president, both within the past few days.
Both blunders have gone practically unnoticed.

# 1: Past President Jimmy Carter breached protocol by directly criticizing sitting president George Bush in a nationally televised interview.

# 2: Past President Bill Clinton announced that he would open direct talks with Iran with no preconditions.

The Carter critique is just plain historically and factually inaccurate, rude and self-serving.
The Clinton critique is preposterous.
Clinton assumes that negotiations would bring us to a better position. But the United Nations has attempted discussions for the past decade to no avail.
The obvious answer is to keep open all options including an air strike and also negotiations. Iran is a wily country and negotiations alone will not force them to step down.

Both past presidents know better. Shame on them.

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House Cmt Vote on Genocide
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The House Committee on Foreign Affairs made the correct decision on Wednesday with their 27-21 vote.
It was the right decision to define the events of the mass murder of Armenians as a Genocide.
It was the right decision to move the resolution on to the full House for their vote.

Our foreign policy should not get in the way of defining right and wrong.
Our friends will respect us more when we are clear and unequivocal about what constitutes right and what constitutes wrong.
What happened to Armenians was wrong, what happened to Armenians was a Genocide.

The Bush Administration did its best to prevent this vote and will probably lobby the full House when it is their time to vote.
But it will pass and honestly, it should pass.

The word Genocide was coined in 1933 by Raphael Lemkin, a Polish Jewish scholar of international law. In describing the massacres in Iraq Lemkin recalled the Armenian massacres of WWI calling them a Genocide.

Turkey will move on and Turkey will get over it.
Germany got over it and today the United States and Germany are friends.

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France vs Russia on Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

President of France Nicolas Sarkozy just met with President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
The subject under discussion was Iran.
The question was: Does Iran actually want to develop nuclear energy or is Iran just interested in energy?
The presidents agreed to disagree.

Putin explained his point of view in a press conference after the meeting.
Putin said that in the absence of "objective data" about Iran's nuclear program "we proceed from an assumption that Iran has no such plans."

There is but one problem with the assumption and I am sure Sarkozy was quick to point it out.
What happens if Putin is wrong? The genie never goes back into the bottle.

My assumption is that Iran is hiding something.
Why? Because Iran is not being transparent.
If Iran should ever become transparent, Putin's argument may prove valid.
Not now, not with this behavior.

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Ambassadors from Iran & Israel Talk
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I caught a news flash yesterday - it was online for just seconds and then it disappeared.

The Iranian Ambassador to Chile, Kambaz Jalali, showed up at a book launch. The guest of honor at the event was Moshe Baker the Israeli ambassador to Chile. The book was about Jewish youth who left Chile, immigrated to Israel to help found the state.

Surprised, Baker approached Jalali and asked if he accidentally come to the wrong event since this was about the founding of Israel and the role of Chilean Jewish youth in its creation.

The Iranian said "I know."
Then he said: "I have to tell you something, but don't be offended, it's nothing personal. We are forbidden from speaking with Israeli diplomats."

The Iranian asked the Israeli if he knew that there was a sizable Jewish community in Iran. The Israeli responded that yes, he knew all about it.

You don't make things like this up.

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Annapolis and Peace
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 8, 2007

I'm Predicting:

People are starting to talk about the Annapolis conference.

The Israeli and Palestinian teams have begun to hammer out ideas.
Israel's Deputy Prime Minister, Haim Ramon, was quoted as saying: "Whoever thinks that in the Annapolis Conference the parties will be discussing the structure of institutions in the Palestinian Authority is fooling himself."

Several changes will emerge as a result of the Annapolis Conference:
Israel will be forced to capitulate on some big issues - like relinquishing control of Arab neighborhoods surrounding Jerusalem.
Arab representatives will gang up and push hard on what they consider human rights violations by Israel.
The US and Israel together will try to push the Palestinians to create real institutions of government, justice, education and police and they will insist that the Palestinians crack down on terror and vitriol.

The US will be wearing three hats and it will be a difficult juggling act.
# 1: host
# 2: mediator
# 3: defender of Israel
Defending Israel will be the most untenable position for the US and so Israel will be on its own declaring its limits and lines in the sand, most of which will have been determined in advance of the Conference.

The limited objective of this Conference which is to create and then continue dialogue is both superficial and ridiculous. The Conference winner will be the group that pushes hardest and since neither the United States nor Israel will push, the outcome is obvious and foregone.

Expect milestones, but no miracles.

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Murdering Christians in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A 32 year old Christian, Rami Ayad, was murdered in Gaza on Saturday.
Ayad who was kidnapped early in the day called his mother saying that if he was not returned in a few hours he would not come back for a long, long time.

The body of Rami Ayad was found several hours later.
The body had multiple stab wounds.

Ayad was the director of the Protestant Holy Bible Society.
The Society's Christian book store, The Holy Bible Society, was bombed and totally destroyed 6 months ago in April. There are about 3000 Christians in Gaza and their property, schools and lives are threatened every day by Hamas.

I do not understand the silence of the Christian community.
Where is the disgust, the protests, the shouting?
Where is the public pressure?
If more people cared maybe more Christians would be safe in Gaza.

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Iran and the Holocaust
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad addressed the Jerusalem solidarity rallies in Teheran on Friday.
He suggested that Israel be moved, maybe to Canada or Europe or even Alaska.

This is not a new rant.
Ahmadinejad believes that there is more space in those places than in the Middle East.
Ahmadinejad believes that Westerners and the Europeans should pay the price of the Holocaust, not the Palestinians.
Ahmadinejad believes that he has come up with a very practical solution - areas that have much land, few people and a perfect spot for a Jewish State.

On Friday Ahmadinejad was quoted in the official Iranian media, IRNA, The Islamic Republic News Agency, speaking about the Holocaust.
He said: "the world should know that the Iranian nation hates massacre(s). It regards agents of the World War II and Hitler as dark and black faces."

According to the logic of Ahmadinejad the Holocaust happened in Europe and Europe should pay the price, i.e. Israel, not the Palestinians.

It's as simple as that.

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New Gaza Poll
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

470 Gazans participated in a telephone poll.
The results were released this week.
Some of the results are obvious.
Some are surprising.

58% of those asked were afraid to speak freely
86% of those asked were worried about the state of affairs in Gaza
72% support a final agreement with Israel
60% think Hamas security teams do not respect personal rights
52% see Abbas as the legitimate leader
24% support Hamas
42% would vote for Fatah if elections were held today
15% would vote for Hamas if elections were held today

I congratulate the pollster and the respondents.
This took a great deal of guts.

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Mud in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza is hot, dirty and dusty enough to begin with.
Now there is mud being slung all over the place.

When Hamas took over in Gaza they found some "interesting" material.
It seems that Fatah security caught and taped several prominent, high level and very rich Fatah leaders conducting homosexual affairs - some even with their wives present.
Now, Hamas has the tapes.

Not to be outdone, Fatah has responded by claiming that they have evidence of a Hamas Imam having homosexual relations with young boys.

The reality is that neither side is pristine.
The reality is that this should not be a big deal.
The reality is that for centuries homosexual acts were not uncommon among the elite of Muslim culture.

P.S. The video starring Fatah elite will cost you $20 on the streets of Gaza.

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Ahmadinejad's Spin
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States had no idea of what Ahmadinejad was up to during his visit to the New York.
The proof lies in the Iranian president's own words.

In an interview released yesterday on IRNA, the Iranian national news agency, Ahmadinejad said:
"Even though the enemies planned in advance to condemn Iran and isolate it in the world's opinion using insults, with the help of God they received an opposite result."

Most Westerners think that Ahmadinejad showed his true colors during the visit and that he was exposed as the true tyrant and thug that he is.
Au contraire.
Ahmadinejad views the entire episode with very different lenses.
And the vast majority of the Muslim world and Europe see things the Ahmadinejad way.

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Terror in the Maldives
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Maldives.
Most people have no idea of where the Maldives are.
So when a terror bomb ripped through a park injuring tourists, among them two Britons, it was not a major news item in the United States.
This was a serious mistake.

The Maldives are a set of Islands in the Indian Ocean about 400 miles from Sri Lanka.
There is something even more important about the Maldives that we should all know.

The Maldives is the smallest predominantly Muslim nation in the world.
The Maldives has about 300,000 residents.
The Maldives has never before been targeted with a terrorist attack.
Not even the Maldives is safe from Islamic terror.

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Iran Calls CIA Terrorist Group
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Parliament has just passed the first stage of a bill that would declare both the CIA and the United States Army to be terrorist organizations.

This move by Iran is a mirror response of the US Senate bill that passed on Wednesday with a vote of 76 to 22 declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.

The Iranian bill states that: "The aggressor the US Army and the Central Intelligence Agency are terrorists and also nurture terror."
The bill offers historical proof citing the atomic bombing of Japan, the use of depleted uranium bombs in the Balkans, prisoner torture, the killing of Iraqi civilians and support for Israel's killing of Palestinians.

Iran will take their propaganda around the world drumming up anti-US feeling and driving a wedge between the United States and nations not fully committed to the American way.
Iran is on the defense and their defense is a very strong offense.

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Taking it Up a Notch
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Snipers and suicide bombers have moved from bombs and bullets to rockets.
Two rockets targeting Israel were discovered in an Arab village south of Jerusalem.
This is a new plateau in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis.

The rockets in and of themselves do not pose a serious threat to Jerusalem, just as the Israeli army asserted. But they do represent a new level of intent.
The discovery points out the need for a significant transformation in the security of Jerusalem.
These rockets signify that the terrorist style adopted by Hamas/Gaza in the south and Hezbollah/Lebanon in the north is now also in the center of Israel.

A successful rocket attack would be the terrorist's dream come true, it would be Israel's nightmare.
Finding these rockets is very important.
Even more important is making certain that the genie stays in the bottle and that this new reality does not turn into actuality.

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Ahmadinejad's Mentor
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Delivering his lecture at Columbia University, Ahmadinejad gave the impression of being a liberal thinker.
Ahmadinejad gave the impression that he was open to ideas and discourse and even religious dialogue.
His speech was a sham.

In the Islamic world you determine a person's perspective by finding their mentor. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's mentor was the Ayatollah Taghi Yazdi.
The Ayatollah Taghi Yazdi was such a religious extremist that the Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic revolution in Iran, wanted to arrest Taghi Yazdi for extremism.

It all points to one indisputable fact.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is of a school that is too extreme even for extremists.

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Columbia's Praise
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

When Columbia University President Lee Bollinger introduced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad he called his guest speaker "a petty and cruel dictator."
Personally, I would have called him a thug.
But that aside, why? Why invite the Iranian leader to speak and then insult him?

Bollinger's objective was to make it clear that he did not support Iranian policy. The problem is that by that point, Bollinger's comments had no impact.
No impact on the students, no impact on the faculty none on the citizens of the United States and certainly no impact on the Muslim world.

The Muslim world saw this event as a vital and significant moral victory.
Certain elements within the Muslim world consider the phrase "cruel dictator" a badge of honor.
It is certainly a phrase the majority of the Muslim world understands.
After the fall of Saddam a significant number of Iraqis yearned for his return.
After Arafat's death Palestinians still yearn for his leadership.
In order to maintain their positions in most parts of the Muslim world leaders purposefully carry out acts of unbridled cruelty and intentionally perpetrate horrific human rights. It gives them staying power and bragging rights, it is an essential character trait of these rulers.

By telling the truth the unwitting, uncomprehending, Bollinger heaped praise upon his guest.

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Ahmadinejad Deceived Them All
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It's all a question of conception.

Most of the people involved in the decisions permitting Ahmadinejad to publicly address American audiences have a skewed understanding of freedom of speech.
That goes for the State Department, the decision makers at Columbia University and the powers that be at 60 Minutes.

I am certain that none of the people making these decisions agree with Ahmadinejad in principle. They are merely standing up for the principle that allows him to speak publicly and openly in our country - a place he despises and vilifies.
Like Voltaire, they are fighting to the death for his right to say whatever it is he wishes to say. In this case they are deceived, they made bad decisions.

Democracies fight for freedom and the right to free speech is intrinsically bound up with those freedoms - but there are limits.
Democracies must defend themselves.
Democracies cannot sponsor anti-democratic forces.
Democracies should not provide anti-democratic forces either a platform or a voice.

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Iran: Warped Free Speech
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian national media (IRNA) quoted Ahmadinejad this morning as saying:
"The United States is a big and important country with a population of 300 million. Due to certain issues, the American people in the past years have been denied correct and clear information about global developments and are eager to hear different opinions."
In a roundabout way, Ahmadinejad is referring to the controversy surrounding the lecture he is scheduled to deliver tomorrow at Columbia University.

Ahmadinejad is not just being contrary and anti-American, he simply cannot separate "disagreement" from "repression."
As much as he understands the US, Ahmadinejad does not really understand freedom. He cannot possible grasp that Americans, with the exception of some deans a president and some students of Columbia University, just do not want to hear him.

I believe in the freedom of speech and in freedom of ideas.
I just do not think we should pay for our enemy's freedom of speech.
I do not believe that all ideas are equal.
The ideas of our enemies who, through speech and actions have removed themselves from civil discourse - even on campus are not equal to the ideas of free populations.
Ahmadinejad fits into that category.

Let the Iranians rent a hall and invite people to attend a lecture.
If Columbia President Bollinger, his faculty or students want to attend they can go, that is their privilege.
American universities must not be bastion of democratic self destructive behavior.

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Syrian Opposition
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian opposition is an umbrella group called the National Salvation Front. At the end of a conference in Berlin the group issued a statement expressing their dissatisfaction with the ruling regime.

They said: "We have a plan of action that will bring the Syrian people to a state of 'civil rebellion,' that will bring about a change of leadership in a democratic and non-violent way."

That is very admirable. It is also very unrealistic.
It is a sad truth but no change can come about in Syria in a non-violent way.
Any movement for change will by necessity need the army or another armed force.

Simply put ... change does not happen in that part of the world peacefully.
If the National Salvation Front wants to take over Syria they will have to do it by way of military putsch.

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Iran & Egypt Make Amends
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that Cairo and Tehran were trying to reestablish their diplomatic relations.

On Wednesday Al-Shark Al-Awsat, a London Arabic newspaper, quoted a senior Iranian official saying that Iran and Egypt are "seriously discussing the renewal of their diplomatic relations."

Egypt had broken off diplomatic relations with Iran after Iran named a public square after the assassin of Anwar Sadat. Now, with the same information coming from both sides, the news seems pretty official.

High level Iranian officials visited Cairo earlier in the week. It was a second round of meetings, the first round took place two months ago.

Iran wants to go mainstream within the region again. Iran wants to be at the epicenter of Mid East Arab influence and, once there, use the position as a springboard to repel Western influence in the region.

Egypt is now the epicenter. And Egypt receives $2 billion of aid a year from the US, the second largest recipient of US aid behind Israel.

Bottom line:

Iran is trying to smooth over the Shiite Sunni hatred and resentment that has festered for centuries by emphasizing Muslim unity.

Iran buries the United States and the West when it comes to masterful regional diplomatic maneuvering.

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Chutzpah of Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I think almost everyone knows what chutzpah means.
It is a Yiddish word for nerve, arrogance, unmitigated gall.
But you don't have to be Jewish to have chutzpah.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chutzpah - and he has lots of it.
The president of Iran has asked for permission to visit ground zero.
He wants to make the most of his time in New York as he attends and addresses the General Assembly of the United Nations.

The people who advise Ahmadinejad are brilliant to come up with this idea.
But a sponsor of terror - a public, bold sponsor of terror, should never be allowed permission to visit this site of destruction.
The Islamic Republic has funded terror since the Shah of Iran was ousted.
The State Department should never have granted Ahmadinejad a visa.

What a mockery.

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Sunnis Killing Sunnis
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda in Iraq, which is Sunni, has issued a serious threat against other Sunni Muslims in Iraq.
The threat was delivered by way of an assassination.
Al Qaeda in Iraq has claimed responsibility for the assassination of Sheikh Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha and they say they will kill anyone else who gets in their way.

Abu Risha was targeted and murdered because he was the power behind the Sunni Arab revolt against al-Qaeda in Anbar province.
Al Qaeda claimed online that it would "assassinate" anyone who "stained the reputations of the real tribes by submitting to the soldiers of the Crusade."
It is all a game of intimidation.

There is an important lesson to be learned.
The internal rift is not just between believers and non-believers, it is not just between Shiites and Sunnis.
This conflict goes much deeper.
Sunni Muslims even murder Sunni Muslims in the name of religious justification.

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Madonna in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Madonna spent Rosh HaShannah in Israel.
Along with Madonna and her husband Guy Ritchie came a slew of celebrity friends including Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher, Rosie O' Donnell, Donna Karan and of course, several bodyguards.
The occasion for the visit was a conference on Kaballah.

Following the conference Madonna met with Israeli President Shimon Peres.
In the presence of the president the star declared herself an ambassador for Judaism, she told him how much she loved Israel.

Israel could not buy better PR.
But words of praise for Israel are fighting words for Israel's enemies.
The Popular Resistance Committees of Gaza, a terror group, had already declared that they want to assassinate Madonna - as well as Britney Spears.

Is Madonna in danger?
The paparazzi pose a greater physical threat to Madonna than do terrorists.

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The True Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week Palestinians from Gaza shot Qassam rockets into Israel.
This time they hit Zikim Army base, a camp for new recruits.
67 Israeli soldiers were injured, several were seriously injured.

The most significant response to the attack comes from Hamas political leadership. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said on Hamas radio: "We consider this a victory from Allah for the resistance."

For months voices from around the world, even in the United States, have been saying that there is a difference between Hamas elected leadership and Hamas violence. They said that by recognizing Hamas leadership we would be giving leadership the power to control marginal destructive forces.
They were giving voice to a myth.
There is no bureaucratic disconnect within Hamas.
They are peas in the same pod with the same objectives and even the same leadership.

There is an essential lesson to be learned here:
Hamas is Hamas and political Hamas is in perfect sync with military Hamas.

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Abbas is Popular But Weak
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

In a quirky turn of political fate, the popularity of Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has risen since Fatah was expelled from Gaza this summer.
The popularity of Abbas is not just up, it is way up.

Until this happened nobody in the Palestinian Authority cared much about the elected leader, he was a non-issue.
If anyone did stop to think about him it was to blame him for the beating Fatah sustained at the hands of Hamas.
Now the Abbas name has been rejuvenated.
In a recent poll 73% of Palestinians responded that they like Abbas and support him - he would trounce anyone in an election if it was held today.
This is a tremendous political transformation.
Not only is he Abbas revered, but Hamas is despised.

The question remains:
Will Abbas be able to clamp down on Hamas?
My answer is:
I don't think so, even with his new political backing and popular support.
Abbas cannot change his character, he will continue to behave as he has always behaved and the bad guys will run rough shod over him and the Palestinians.

Despite his rising popularity, with Abbas in charge there is still no real chance for the Palestinians.

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Hamas Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Muhawesh al Kadi, a senior Hamas security person was grabbed right off the street, deep in Gaza, in broad daylight.
He was arrested by Israel.

Israel grabbed al Kadi because he was one of the people responsible for the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit last year. Al Kadi is probably not going to be very useful to Israel in locating the kidnapped soldier because his task was operational, not dealing with the hostage, but Israel is making a point. And Hamas has heard that point loud and clear.

Now Hamas is arresting collaborators in Gaza, they are scouring the area and arresting anyone who they think might have helped Israel with the operation. Hamas is so strung out by this situation that originally they decided that Fatah was to blame.

Israel got the bad guy and no one was hurt on either side.
We will see more of these kinds of operations in the future. It is a way of knocking out enemy leadership while still getting useful information.

For Israel it was a perfect operation.
For Hamas it was a humiliating experience.

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Al Qaeda Offers Lessons
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Islamic terrorists often think of themselves as role models for the Muslim world.
Islamic terrorists believe that they are messengers fulfilling the wishes of Allah.
Islamic terrorists see themselves as educators to the masses.

Abu Yahia al-Libi, an al Qaeda terrorist, an escapee from a US prison in Afghanistan, recently posted a video.

In his video this terrorist takes Hamas to task for having abandoned the Jihad. He lectures Hamas for "abandoning Jihad and jumping into the ballot boxes."

He suggests that Hamas has spilled Muslim blood in vain.

He accuses Hamas of having "pretty" goals and aspirations and not true Jihad.

Hamas is suffering from some very bad press these days.
Hamas cannot convince anyone in the Arab world that they are capable terrorists and loyal Muslims.

This, however, is the pot calling the kettle black.

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Osama's Message
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Let me explain why Osama bin Laden dyed his beard.

The Arab world is all about virility and machismo.
Youth, vitality and strength are highly valued attributes.
They are especially valued in the world of Arab leadership.

Aging is one of the biggest fears that Arab leaders face.
Aging is an obvious manifestation of diminishing strength and prowess.
Aging in Arab world leadership is often accompanied by a fundamental sense of insecurity.

This reaction is a classic inversion of true psychological security and true emotional health. These men are feared leaders who should age with the grace of lions. Instead they try to turn themselves once again into young steeds.

By dying his beard black Osama is revealing just how weak he has become.

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Israel Flies Over Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Israel violated Syrian airspace for a reason.
Israel wanted to send Syria a message.
The message is: "Watch your step."

Syria continues to allow weapons to cross over into Lebanon in great numbers and with great frequency.
Lebanon has made the same appeal to Syria to stop smuggling arms through their borders, but the Lebanese are powerless when it comes to the Syrians.

Not coincidentally, Iran's media responded to Israel's sonic booms by saying that they will come to Syria's aid.
Syria, you see, is also intensifying relations with Iran - and that can be very dangerous for the region.

Syria claims to have shot at the Israeli jets and frightened then away.
The claim is ridiculous.
That claim is pure, undiluted, disinformation.

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Terrorists in Germany
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Terrorists are still hard at work attempting to perpetrate attacks.
Wednesday's arrest of 3 terrorists in Germany and Tuesday's arrest of 8 in Denmark is clear and undeniable proof.

There is no doubt in my mind - these terrorists were out to harm the United States and they chose to do so by attacking anything Western.
Yes, they were targeting the Frankfurt airport and a US Air-Force base but they were also planning on hitting the cafes, discos, and bars where many US personnel congregate.

Of the 8 terrorists captured in Denmark, 6 were Danish citizens.
Of the 3 terrorists captured in Germany, 2 were German citizens.
One of the lessons we learned from the bombing in London is that the success of terrorist acts is greatly increased when the operatives are locals.
Locals raise less suspicion, know the lay of the land and read the people better.

Thankfully the police were on top of this plot for over a year now.
Success by this German cell could have been catastrophic - they already had detonators and they had 1500 pounds of hydrogen peroxide, the most important element in making bombs.
Al Qaeda is out there and they are recruiting home grown boys and girls.

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Watch The King of Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Watch what the King of Jordan is doing.
You will gain insight into the subtext of the Middle East.

Yesterday, Abdullah II King of Jordan was in Paris at the Elysee Palace meeting the new president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy.
They discussed the upcoming regional peace conference.
Seems nice, seems proper, seems appropriate, seems hopeful that the region may actually be on the verge of normalcy.
But in the Middle East, what you see on the surface can be very deceiving.

Only recently the King urged his government to speed up Jordan's nuclear program, a continuation of statements and policy developed in January when Abdullah first announced his intentions to develop a nuclear program.
Now Jordan is talking about nuclear energy - and so is everyone else in the region.

Jordan needs to be nuclear because Iran is nuclear.
It is as simple as that.
The lesson to be learned is, never be too hopeful for the Middle East.

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Iran & Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Today Syrian Foreign Minister Mouallem met with Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Yesterday Mouallem met with his colleague, Iranian Foreign Minster Mottaki.

Mouallem was delivering a specific message from Syrian President Assad to the Iranian leader.
The message probably went something like this:
The West is getting dangerously close to responding to the threat of Iranian nuclear development.
The sponsorship of terror by way of Hezbollah and Hamas is a deal breaker in the eyes of the Western world.

The relationship between Syria and Iran may be tested but, make no mistake about it, they are both on the same page. They both reject the notion of Western soldiers on Muslim soil, they both reject Israel's right to exist.
However, because of Western pressure Syria may have to seemingly adopt a more moderate line in the hopes of getting back the Golan -but it will be a ploy.

Iran and Syria will remain allies as long as it serves both their needs - no longer.
Iran and Syria are not friends, they are allies, there is a big difference.

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Cyber Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hell Teams is a group of Arab computer hackers.
Over the weekend Hell Teams hacked into the Likud Party website.
They left their sign and this message: "You are killing the Palestinians and we are killing your servers."

Hell Teams left part of their message in part Hebrew, part in Arabic.
In part English they wrote that the attack was "sanctified" the Palestinians and Lebanese children. Obviously they meant to say "dedicated to."
The message was signed by a hacker named Cold Zero.

Cyber terror is part of the terror game today and the players are kids.
Everyone needs to be protected. These guys are very good. Sometimes they just want to put up a message or change a picture. But sometimes they want to cause real damage, disrupt, destroy and contaminate a system.

The Likud is lucky, it could have been much worse.

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Hamas is Brutal
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

For the second Friday in a row there have been violent protests in Gaza.

Hamas police have beaten Fatah protesters and journalists covering the event.

The protests are all part of a master plan.
The planners are both Fatah and Hamas.

Fatah is using these protests to call international and local attention to the brutality of Hamas.
Hamas is using these protests to clamp down on alternative ideas.

They are limiting the ability of people to express themselves and limiting the ability of the press to cover the events internally and internationally.

Hamas cares about the way they are portrayed in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Hamas needs Arab and Muslim support.

Hamas fears that their message is being morphed and poorly presented.
Hamas fears that they, along with Islamic rule, might not be seen as a viable and suitable method of government.

Hamas fears that they may be seen as thuggish and brutal.

There is only so much Hamas can do to change their PR image.
Truth is, Hamas is thuggish and brutal.

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The Limits of Free Speech
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 31, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

What do you do when a Muslim leader in Israel deliberately lies in order to stoke the flames of conspiracy?
What do you do when he claims that Israel is planning to take over the Temple Mount - Al Aqsa, the holy Dome of the Rock?

Sheikh Raed Salah, head of the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, called on Arab and Muslim nations to "prevent the division of the Al-Aqsa by Israel." His plea came in the form of a letter written to leaders residing in Arab and Muslim countries. In the letter he begs them to put a halt to "Israel's plan that aims at dividing the Al-Aqsa Mosque between Muslims and Jews whereas in the Jewish part it plans to build its imaginary temple."

The entire assumption that Israel is taking over the Temple Mount is pure myth. But this myth touches the rawest nerve in the entire Muslim world, it unveils the conspiracy theory that Jews want to take over and destroy Muslim holy sites.

These words cannot be protected by freedom of speech.
Sheikh Raed Salah is knowingly spreading lies to achieve an end that threatens Israel's safety, he must be prosecuted for his actions.

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US General in the West Bank
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Did you know there was a United States general, real military personnel, who functions as a security coordinator for the Palestinian West Bank?
His name is Keith Dayton.

And last week, in an unprecedented move, Congress allocated Dayton $80 million to improve security in the West Bank.
The plan is to have the United States train five small, specialized, crack Palestinian units to serve in very specialized areas with very specific duties.
The units will be supplied with sophisticated weapons and transport.

Why? Why? Why? To bolster Abbas against Hamas.
And what's the major flaw in this program?
All the crack teams and all the specialized units on the West Bank will not bring about law and order - and law and order is the key to stability in the West Bank.

Additionally, the US is creating a situation with trained personnel and powerful weapons and no guarantee that they will not turn them against Israel.
Before this plan goes into action Israel must sign off and show agreement.

Not long ago Israel was hit with a rash of sniper attacks by Palestinians.
The skill of the snipers was too good to have been picked up on the street.
Turns out, these snipers had been trained in Langley by the CIA and - with the blessing of Israel.
That precedent has already been set.

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Germany Now Aids Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has been out in the diplomatic tundra ever since they were implicated by the UN in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

But yesterday Germany signed an agreement with Syria giving them 34 million Euros - that's $46.5 million US. Part of the aid is in the form of a grant for infrastructure development and part comes as a soft loan.

The question is: Why bring Syria in from the cold, what is Germany thinking?
The answer is simple.
Germany wants to influence Syria so that Syria well help the West against Iran.
Germany has a plan to try to get Muslim countries, even those with close ties to Iran, and entice them away from Iranian influences.

This is all part of a multi-dimensional plan.
This is just like the US decision to give a $20 billion military aid package to Saudi Arabia.
This is a plan that is destined to fail.

Syria will not now, probably not ever, help the West.
The West is playing with fire.

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Travel Schedules of Leaders
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I gain a lot insight into world affairs by studying the travel schedules of world leaders. I get insight into what these leaders plan to accomplish and clues as to what is really on their agendas.

On Tuesday of this week Abbas and Olmert will meet in Jerusalem.
In early September Abbas and Rice will be meeting.
At their meeting Rice and Abbas will be setting benchmarks for a US sponsored conference to be held in November.

I don't envision anything substantial coming out of this conference.
Israel and the Palestinians do not agree on much of anything at all. For example, the Palestinians have rejected Israel's most recent proposal that there be an exchange of populations and parcels of land as a means of dealing with - not ignoring, the Palestinian demand for "right of return."
The United States meanwhile, is turning a blind eye to all disagreements and hoping for miracles. The US is in "la la land" when it comes to Israel and the Palestinians.

Security is what these leaders should be discussing - not conference planning.

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Hamas TV Again
By Micah Halpern

Blog

Sunday August 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas TV is at it again, they are using children's TV to teach hatred.
And once again Hamas has borrowed material from Walt Disney. First, it was Mickey Mouse. Next, it was a Buzzing Bumble. Now it is the Lion King.

Hamas is the Lion and, according to this story, rats are trying to take over Gaza. The rats, of course are Fatah. They are conniving and they are thieves. For extra impact, Hamas has even used a voice over from Mohamed Dahlan, the former Fatah strong man of Gaza.

As the story proceeds the rats are swarming and nervous, but the Lion is calm. The Lion pounces and the rats all limp away. In the final memorable scene, Hamas the Lion sits proudly on the mountain top, the wind blowing through his mane as he looks out at his kingdom.

What's really going on here? Hamas is using PR for damage control, and they are actually being very creative as they try to resurrect their image.
So why did they rip off Lion King? Because, according to Hamas, Disney took the lion out of the jungle and Hamas took it to Palestine.
So far, Hamas has also only aired the piece once, as a trial run. Next time it airs they will drop the Dahlan voice over.

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Syria is in A Dream World
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

According to a Syrian newspaper, the United States is pushing Israel into war with Syria.

That is absolutely absurd and there are three reasons why:

# 1: The United States cannot force Israel - they can nod in agreement or disagreement, but nothing more.
# 2: Israel is trying to get a read on Syria and find out what the real intentions of the Syrians are.
# 3: Syrian leader Bashar Assad is hanging on by the skin of his teeth, he has no idea what to do next. Iran and Hezbollah believe that Israel is weak right now and they are pressuring Assad to support them and make a move against Israel.

This report in the Syrian paper is a smoke screen for Assad. If Assad should make a decision and move on Israel his action will be perceived as justified.

This report puts into perspective just how difficult it is to anticipate Syrian actions.

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Electricity in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza is having an electricity problem.
It goes off, it comes on.
What is happening?

Here's what's happening:

The European Union sponsors about a third of the electricity in Gaza.
The EU cut the electric supply to Gaza earlier this week because Hamas was taxing the electricity and using the tax to finance their government.
The EU restored electricity on the condition that it go directly to the Palestinian people.

Another portion of Gaza's electricity comes from a private Israeli company.

That company cut off electricity because the bills weren't being paid. Now those bills will be paid.

A third portion is provided by the Egyptians who say that they were aware of the Hamas tax, but felt compelled to provide electricity despite it all.

Electricity in Gaza - now you see it, now you don't.

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Iraq & Iran Make Peace
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine my surprise when I saw that Iranian State TV broadcast that President Ahmadinejad was invited to Baghdad.
And he plans on going.

Iraq and Iran fought a brutal 8 year war and there is bad blood between them. But it seems as if they are trying to normalize relations and just recently the Iraqi foreign minister visited Iran.

The small problem with this invite is that the United States is Iraq's sponsor and by extension, the sponsor of Iraq's new freedom and democracy. It is precisely that freedom that allows Iraq to embrace Iran - an enemy of the United States.
The bigger problem is Iran. Iran stands for everything that is antithetical to a free and safe Iraq. Iran is a destabilizing influence.

Sooner or later Iraq will have to make a choice - either take a stand or be swallowed up by self destructive regional forces.
Only Iraq can make that decision.
That is democracy at work.

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Iran Responds
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

United States pressure on Iran is starting to work.
How do I know?
Iran is making public anti-US statements in their media.

Yesterday, the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the US is in a downward spiral. He went so far as say "In the eternal battle between right and wrong, the Great Satan will lose out." We all know who the Great Satan is.

The Ayatollah said that the US is much weaker today than 20 years ago.
That says a lot. 20-plus years ago, in 1979, the Iranians began their Islamic Revolution and took employees of the United States Embassy in Iran hostage.

Iranian leadership is petrified.
They fear that their own people, the Iranians, will side with the Americans.
Should that happen, it means a secular revolution in Iran.
To counter US influence Iranian leadership is lashing out at the Great Satan.

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Shanghai Cooperation- A Shocker
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I am going to tell you about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
This significant organization that almost nobody knows about just concluded its 11th annual meeting.

The ostensible reason for these meetings is to bring China and Russia together. When other member nations attend, like this year, the agenda abruptly changes.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a front.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization exists to challenge the United States and US policy.

Russia, China and Iran are in sync when it comes to the situation in the Gulf.
The odd man out is the United States.
Listen to this: "Stability and security in Central Asia are best ensured primarily through efforts taken by the nations of the region on the basis of the existing regional associations."
It is a direct attack against US involvement in the region and especially in Iran.

Ahmadinejad was very happy to hear those words.
This was the second straight year that he attended.
It was worth his while being there, he came out a real winner.

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Syria and Saudi Arabia Clash
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Syria and Saudi Arabia are at one another's throats and it has become public.

On Tuesday Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Shara spoke at the University in Damascus and derided the role of Saudi Arabia in the region saying that it is virtually paralyzed.
He also took issue with the fact that Saudi Arabia did not attend a meeting hosted by Damascus about security in Iraq.
Present at that meeting were both the United States and the United Nations.

Saudi Arabia responded via their press and the message was picked up throughout the Arab and Muslim world. The Saudi response used phrases like "lies and fallacies" and "distasteful statements."

Once upon a time, Syria and Saudi Arabia had a civil relationship.
That ended with the 2005 assassination of Rafik Harari, the former prime minister of Lebanon.
Now Saudi Arabia blames Syria for the murder.

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Israeli Upgrade
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just completed a half billion dollar upgrade of reserve forces and equipment.
This is just a first stage in an expensive but essential process.

A year ago the most experienced Israeli forces fighting against Hezbollah were the men of the reserve forces, called up to defend their country.
At the time one of the biggest critiques of the Israeli military was equipment shortages, especially equipment needed by the reserve forces.
This upgrade was slow to come but much needed.

Quartermaster mistakes and supply debacles occur in all armies.
But Israel cannot afford such mistakes.
In the military, mistakes cost lives.

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Psychological Warfare With Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a terrorist organization

Iran says that the United States is engaging in psychological warfare.
Sources in the Iranian foreign ministry are saying "such reports are published as part of the US leaders PR and psychological activity against Iran and are worthless."

It is definitely psychological warfare.
It is definitely not worthless.
It is a direct strike by the United States at Iran and Iranians must understand that.

The tactics of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is one of the biggest open secrets in Iran and in the Arab world.
Everyone knows what goes on, everyone knows that this high level elite force often tortures and terrorizes their own citizens.
But no one will admit it, no one will speak it out loud - not Iranians and not the rest of the Arab world.

The United States is urging Iranians to speak up, speak out and face reality.
Let's hear it for psychological warfare.

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Iran & Afghanistan Meet
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

An example of how US foreign policy lacks any real punch:

Last week, President Bush had a press conference with Afghanistan's Prime Minister Hamid Karzai. Bush pointed out that Iran was playing a destabilizing role in Afghanistan which accounted for their recent rise of Taliban power.

Tomorrow, Ahmadinejad of Iran will meet with Karzai in Afghanistan. It is the Iranian leader's first trip to her neighbor Afghanistan. I am certain that the United States and US policy in the region will be a very important topic of discussion.

The questions beg asking:
Why is this meeting happening? Is there no way the US could have prevailed upon Afghanistan not to have this meeting? If they did ask for the meeting not to happen, why is it that the meeting is happening anyway?
Iran cannot be seen - in the region or out - as an acceptable supportive neighbor. Until Iran tows the international line regarding nuclear development Iran must be outcast from the community, Iran must be a pariah state.

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US Pressure is Working Against Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has been exerting significant pressure on international industries to stop trading with Iran.
The results have been somewhat positive and the Iranian oil industry has felt the pressure.

Yesterday Iran fired the head of the National Iranian Oil Company for his failure to stop the United States from taking away oil clients.
Now Iran needs to figure out how to lure back clients.
One of the plans under consideration is for Iran to break from OPEC.
If Iran and OPEC do separate, Iran can offer clients lower cost oil.

Even if they successfully lure back oil clients, Iran is in trouble.
The Iranian oil industry is completely controlled by the state and acts more like a mafia than an efficient monopoly.
Iran is fighting a larger battle than US interference and the loss of oil clients.

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Nasrallah is Right and Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah gave a live interview on Iranian state radio today.
The Hezbollah leader gave his take on happenings in the Middle East.

Not surprisingly, Nasrallah was preaching vitriol, dogma and hatred to the converted.
Not surprisingly, his understanding on most issues is dead wrong.

But on one issue, Nasrallah is 100% correct.
"Without a strong army Israel would not be able to survive in the region." But that is where it ends.

He said: the state is an army state, the state exists for the sake of its army.
Nasrallah is trying to say that Hezbollah morale is high and Israeli morale is low.
He is explaining that the Israeli army is there for its own sake alone not for the sake of the people or to defend the society.

The audience he is preaching to has little to no understanding of democracy and Israel they misunderstand Israel's investigation and mourning for weakness.

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Fatah Hamas Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is being put to the test by Fatah in Gaza.

Fatah has activated a series of strike teams and infiltrated them into Gaza.
Fatah is planning to stimulate unrest and dissatisfaction with Hamas.
Fatah wants the people to feel fearful and unsafe.
Fatah hopes the people will then rise up and depose the Hamas leadership
Fatah has named the group Sami al Madhoun after the Fatah commander who was executed in Gaza on the last day of the war between Hamas and Fatah.

Hamas knows what Fatah wants.
Hamas is trying to find the group members and arrest them.
Hamas is not as successful at infiltrating the infiltrators as they would like to be.
So far, the group has set off several bombs and shot up several areas - outside the Hamas headquarters and at a hangout for Hamas members.

There is growing anger against Hamas in Gaza.
Sami al Madhoun is exploiting that anger, using it as the perfect cover to launch raids and re-take control in Gaza.
Will Hamas find these units - or will the units continue to operate secretly and successfully.
The future of Gaza is at stake.

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Syria And Russia Agree
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Syria and Russia signed some agreements.
The agreements have not yet become public.

This is what is rumored to be in the still secret agreements:
Russia will sell Syria SS-26 surface-to-surface missile.
Syria will allow the Russian Mediterranean fleet to dock at Syrian ports.
The significance of these agreements is that Syria and Russia are becoming very, very chummy.

The tie that bonds Syria and Russia is the overwhelming desire to challenge the United States and US policy in the Middle East.
Syria is a "bad boy." The West is placing Syria in isolation and along comes Russia and invites them out of the cold.
Truth is, Russia doesn't care about Syria, per say. Russia needs to sell weapons and they need to be a player and Syria fulfills that need.

For the Russians, these agreements say "in your face" to the United States.
One fallout of the plan is that even though Syria is just a pawn that Russia is arming - that pawn now presents an even more significant threat to Israel.

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Ahmadinejad's Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Another day, another rant from Iranian leader Ahmadinejad.

The occasion: Journalist Day
The venue: the offices of INRA, the Islamic Republic News Agency, the official voice of Iran
The subject: unfair reporting by the foreign press
The proof: they choose the wrong sides and use the wrong words
More proof: they portray Iran poorly
Most important proof: they misrepresent the real conflict with the Palestinians.
Best quote: by distorting the reality the world has come away with a misunderstanding of the Palestinian cause

Like most thugs and dictators Ahmadinejad thinks he is correct.
He thinks that anyone who dares challenge him is wrong.

Case in point: the Iranian newspaper Sharq
The paper was shut down and the editors were arrested two days ago
The crime: an interview with lesbian Iranian poet now living in Canada.

In Iran, you do it Ahmadinejad's way or it is not done at all.

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Hamas Hires Women Police
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A new Hamas recruitment campaign is under way.

The Gaza police force is expanding - 100 new positions opened yesterday.
The main requirement for the job - be a woman.
The women will be official, proper police - their job will be to police other women.

This is a real WOW.
One the one hand - Hamas members live in a male dominated world.
On the other hand - a female police force fits in perfectly with Hamas doctrine.

Women cops allows for better police coverage.
Women can and now will search other women.
Women blend into places men do not.
These women will fill an unavoidable void in sexist Arab and Muslim societies.
These women will do what the men could not do.

Women's studies 101, Muslim style - Hamas is learning fast.

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Syria is Twitching
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Public statements are important learning tools.
Just as important are comments made by those people intentionally kept away from the public and the press.

The head of research for Israel's military intelligence is Yossi Baidatz.
Baidatz is a brigadier general, a man with a very long face made even longer by his heavily receding hairline.

Baidatz briefed the Israeli Cabinet about the current threats in the region.
Baidatz predicted that Hamas plans to do in the West Bank what they did in Gaza.
Now, this should come as no surprise - Hamas wants total control and Fatah has not yet figured out how to effectively deal with them.

Baidatz also said that Syria is watching Israel very closely.
Baidatz thinks Syria is anticipating an Israeli strike.
Syria's mindset is significant.
Right now Syria is very twitchy - we have no way of knowing how they will react to situations.
Right now, Syria is a wild card.

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Iraq Demands Planes From Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Here is a perfect example of the changing Middle East.
In the old Middle East Iraq and Iran were united allies against the West.
In the changing Middle East Iraq is forcing Iran to recognize the new Iraq.

The head of Iraq's air-force just made an astounding request.
The request: that Iran return the hundreds of fighter planes that flew into Iran in 1991 - before the 1st Gulf War.
The rationale: to repair the planes and incorporate them into the new Iraqi air-force.

In the end, the politicians will work out the transfer.
In the end, those are the planes that will help protect Iraq from Iran.

Iran will not give up the planes easily.
But the fact that there are tensions between the countries is a sure sign of maturity on the part of the Iraqi military and Iraqi leadership.
Iraq wants to be able to protect itself.
Iraq wants to contribute to its own defense.
Iraq is no longer all trusting of Iran.
This is called progress.

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Libya is Crazy But Smart
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi is an eccentric.
He is a lunatic. He is a dictator. He is a demon.
And Muammar Ghadaffi is brilliant.

Ghadaffi permitted actually invited, US and international arms inspectors into Libya and watched as they removed his stock of unconventional weapons.
Then Ghadaffi traded up - rusty, old unconventional weapons for state of the art conventional weapons.
And since that trade Libya has been able to buy conventional weapons - at will and on the international market.

Just yesterday Ghadaffi bought nearly a half billion dollars of missiles and high tech tracking and listening equipment from France. He bought the Milan missile and the tetra surveillance system - additions that will upgrade Libya's ability to track and listen to almost anyone in their country and also bolster Libya's already capable missile program.

He's a wily one this Ghadaffi, our constant surveillance must be turned on him.

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Mossad Helps Libya
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

At long last the pressure has had an effect on the Libyans and they have released the six prisoners they have been holding for so long.
The five Bulgarian nurses and the Palestinian doctor were all sent to Bulgaria.
Convicted of spreading the AIDS virus, they had all been sentenced to death.

It took years before the Libyans were persuaded to release these prisoners.
It took dozens of high level diplomatic meetings and conversations.
It took the skill of many and varied humanitarian intermediaries.

Of all the groups and all the people intervening on behalf of these prisoners, the most unusual representatives were from the Israeli intelligence organization, the Mossad.
According to a recent disclosure by one of the parties intimately familiar with and involved in the negotiations, the Mossad helped relax the parties and successfully pried opened important windows of communication.

Wonders will never cease.

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Russia Plays Both Sides
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Middle East and Russia - Diplomacy 101.

Just hours after Russia hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas announced that Russia had invited a Hamas delegation to Moscow.
Twelve hours earlier, back in Moscow, Putin had told Abbas that Russia was down scaling their relationship with Hamas and that Abbas was seen as the "legitimate leader of the Palestinian people."

This is how Russia plays the game.
The Russians don't choose one side against the other - they play both sides. The Russians need to know that they always have contacts and entree to both sides just in case something happens, just in case they might need it.

Russia not only plays, Russia pays.
Russia is a sponsor and a supporter of "friends in need."
Abbas and Hamas are just two of many examples of Russian largesse.

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Jordan Votes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan made history today.
Jordanians held municipal elections for mayors and city councils.

For the first time Jordanians were able to vote for their municipal seats, until now, half the seats were appointed by the King.
Only Amman did not vote, but that in no way diminishes the boldness of this act.
This is a major move toward reform and democracy in Jordan.

Obviously - the monarchy is not about to abdicate.
But change, especially in local government, serves to empower the people and teach valuable lessons about democracy.

The process of democracy is learned.
Slow transitions are the best way to ensure that radical pendulum swings and knee jerk reactions do not imperil the learning curve.
The subtle blend of the liberal concepts of democracy and the rigid rules of monarchy has begun in Jordan.

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Hamas' Death Note
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

All eyes should turn to Gaza - Hamas is unhappy with the status quo and is signaling that they are about to make some changes.

A warning and a death threat have been issued by Hamas aimed at the new Palestinian Prime Minister and Fatah leader, Salam Faayad.
The warning reads: "Fayyad's government has given up on the principles of the Palestinian people, recognized everyone (our enemies), and done what the Zionist enemy, and its accomplice, the United States, desired - in exchange for dollars."
More emphatically: "His Government has abandoned the resistance."

Them's fighting words.
The "resistance" is Arabic code for "terror."
Hamas is justifying their death threat.
This argument goes this way: If Faayad and the Fatah are traitors to the Palestinian cause, they deserve to be publicly rebuked and even killed.

Hamas already has Islamist camp supporters, but those numbers are finite. Hamas is arguing this line of thought in order to grab supporters from the nationalist camp.
If Hamas can win over the nationalist camp, they can win another election.
Winning another election is what Hamas really wants right now.
My, how things have changed.

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Arabic for Humiliation
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

WAKSA.
In Arabic it means total humiliation.
It is the way the Arab world is defining the actions and behavior of the Palestinians - in Gaza and throughout the Palestinian Authority.

In the Arab world the Six Day War is defined as NAKSA.
NAKSA means a defeat by an outside force.
In the Arab world the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 is defined as NAKBA.
NAKBA means catastrophe.
They are powerful, emotionally laden terms - but WAKSA is the heaviest of all.
WAKSA implies self humiliation, self destruction, self ruination.

The loggerheads conflict between Islamic forces and nationalist forces is compelling both Palestinian intellectuals and the people on "the street" to ask themselves a very serious question?
Can Palestinians truly rule themselves, or will they only self-destruct?

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Harry Potter and the Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

J. K. Rowling's latest work is creating quite a stir in the Arab world.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows has induced the Arabic press to engage in soul searching, introspective dialoguing and reality checking.

Al Jazeera and the Gulf News in Dubai have been covering the Harry Potter phenomenon as it impacts on their world.
Some interesting insights have emerged giving us a peek into the Arab world.

"We have to take into account that reading itself is what's lacking in Arab nations. Those nations do not even read the Koran. I say we must learn the love of reading from the West without saying that reading that [Harry Potter] book is a waste of time. Hundreds of thousands of [Westerners] stood in line to get a copy of the book and no one in the Arab nations even goes into a bookstore more than once a year. There's no crowding in bookstores. People crowd around the television, and they're highly skilled in wasting time on the Internet."

The Gulf News quotes 2 bookstore proporietors. One says that while he stocks about 10,000 volumes in his store, he sells maybe sells 2 to 5 books a month.

The Arab world today does not read.
The Arab world today is vastly, functionally, illiterate.
Religious leaders in the Arab world detest and demean the Western ... culture of music and sexual inuendo / but what about the Western culture of letters.
The great Arab literarians of the Golden Age are turning over in their graves.

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Arab League & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, even those in the know make grave errors.
Even The New York Times sometimes gets things wrong.
Even the office of the Prime Minister of Israel sends out incorrect information.

Case in point:
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan visited Israel, meeting the prime minister, the president, the foreign minister and various other important people.
Both The NYTimes and the PM's office reported that the foreign ministers were in Israel as representatives of the Arab league.
They were not - they acted on behalf of their own countries and their own countries alone, specifically without the permission of the Arab League.

This is why it matters:
Arabs want to accept Israel, they want relations with Israel - but they can't.
So each country secretly negotiates a separate, hidden relationship with Israel.
When it is the right time they will step forward and publicly, openly accept Israel.
Hopefully, the right time will come soon and more Arab countries will take that big step forward and follow the lead of Egypt and Jordan.

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Laugh or Cry
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran recently arrested 14 spies.
There was hardly a news blip reporting the story.

They were captured near the border.
They were outfitted with high-tech hardware listening and filming devices.
They were squirrels.

Why didn't the Western press run with this great story?
After all, it was reported by the INRA (Islamic Republic News Agency), the official arm of the Iranian government.

The most ludicrous part of the whole story is that some people believe it is true. They believe a decision was made to waste money by attempting to train these rabid rodents in the art of high tech surveillance.
They believe it because in the Muslim world, conspiracies can mean everything. They believe that the United States conspired to corrupt the rodents in order to invade Iran.

Do we laugh or do we cry?

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Hezbollah is Too Proud
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There is an ancient Chinese proverb that seems to speak directly to Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.
The proverb goes: "One who is overly proud will certainly meet defeat."

Courtesy of al Jazeera, the Sheikh spoke to the world on Sunday.
"In July and August (2006), there was no place in occupied Palestine which was out of the reach of the resistance missiles."
"Tel Aviv or elsewhere, we were certain that we could reach any corner or spot in occupied Palestine and now we are certain that we can reach them."

We all know that Hezbollah hit Israel this past summer, and we know that it was a hard blow for Israel, especially psychologically.
Despite that success, Hezbollah's arrogance - and failures - has turned Lebanon and most of the Arab world against them.

Hezbollah has not restored calm to Lebanon, they are creating more tensions.
Hezbollah has not forced Israel into compromise, despite kidnapping 2 soldiers.
Hezbollah has not gotten Sheba Farms, despite their claims.
Hezbollah has not been able to lift the Arab pressure on the investigation into the murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Hezbollah may have a vision, but Hezbollah has not delivered on that vision.

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Iran Syria Nexus
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad's trip to Damascus has paid off.
Iran and Syria have reached a new - and overarching - agreement.

Iran promises to:
Fund Syria's acquisition of Russian and North Korean weapons
Set up factories to build military weapons
Support Syria in Lebanon

Syria promises to:
Not move forward with any peace deals with Israel
Work to destabilize the current Lebanese government lead by Siniora and Lahoud.

At least, that's the way Iranian news is reporting the agreement.
Reports from Iran should always be met with skepticism.
But this one makes sense.
Iran's overarching goal is to sabotage progress and normalization in the region.

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Jordan's King to DC
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Abdullah King of Jordan will be in Washington, DC on Tuesday for talks with President George Bush.

The King wants to discuss how to move along the president's idea of a summit. The King wants Palestinians, Israelis and others to advance towards peace.
The King wants to help.
The King wants to plead the Palestinian case.

Jordan is making a big tactical error.
Jordan is playing the wrong game - they should be pleading their own case.
Relations between Jordan and the US are much improved, but for example, the US gives Egypt over $2 billion a year and Jordan gets only about $250 million.

Jordan should be positioning itself as a friend of the United States in the region rather than the mouthpiece of the Palestinians.
Only by helping the United States will the Jordanians be able to help themselves - and then by extension they can help the entire region, including the Palestinians.

Wise up Abdullah King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

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Thugs & Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad has been very busy.
He met with President Assad of Syria and Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah and Khaled Maashal of Hamas and Ramadan Shallah the Secretary General of Islamic Jihad - all on Thursday, in Damascus.

Ahmadinejad met with some the most notorious leaders of terrorist organizations and enemies of freedom and the West alive today.
Ahmadinejad had the same clear message for everyone.
Stay united against the enemy. Islam will win and they will fall.

To Hezbollah he said: congratulations on your victory against Israel, "thanks to the victory, while the Zionist regime is becoming weaker every day, Lebanon is enjoying internal serenity."

To Syria he said: "Iran and Syria are allies and will remain allies." We "are united against the enemies of the two countries and the region." "The relations between Iran and Syria have a great and important influence on the region and on the entire world."

To Islamic Jihad he said: "The Zionist regime has lost its ideology of existence and will therefore try to compensate for its failures." "This issue should lead to a state of high alert among the region's nations, particularly among the Palestinians and Lebanese."

According to reports he spoke with Hamas about ways to continue the fight against Israel and encouraged them and the other Palestinian factions to resume a joint dialogue and stay united against a common enemy.

Thugs. Ahmadinejad, Assad, Nasrallah, Maashal, Shallah.
Ahmadinejad convened a conference of thugs.

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Hamas- Al Qaeda Connections
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Extremist organizations, by their very nature, see the world through their own unique prism of warped reality.

Take Hamas, for example.
The Italian newspaper La Repubblica quotes Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader who was ousted as Palestinian prime minister, saying that the current isolation of Hamas might just push the people toward extremism.
He is also quoted denying that al Qaeda has laid down any roots in Gaza.

Huh? Current PA leadership, Israeli intelligence and even the government of France are very worried that al Qaeda infiltrated Gaza and is working with Hamas.
On Wednesday French Foreign Minister Bernard Koucher explained the Hamas/al Qaeda bedfellow relationship saying: "I think Hamas did not wait for this extreme situation - the current terrible situation in Gaza - to have contacts with al Qaeda. And it would perhaps be too simple to think that we, the international community, are responsible."

Hamas is a terror organization.
Al Qaeda is a terror organization.
Al Qaeda and Hamas may have ideological differences, but they are both extremist organizations.
There are no gradations in terror groups - they are all bad.

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Threat Assessment in the US
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The National Intelligence Estimate is an assessment of potential threats against the United States. Findings were just made public.

The most striking line reads: "We assess that al-Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland."

That information is not new, but it is relevant.
That information reminds us that we need to focus our attentions and resources in areas where we can make a difference, where we can proactively work to prevent terrorist attacks.

We know that al Qaeda is getting important know-how and training in Iraq.
The hard part is not getting those trainees, the hard part is getting those trainees into America. Europe, as we have witnessed, is much easier to infiltrate and attack than the USA.

That's good news for the United States.
But it does not mean that al Qaeda will not keep trying.
And one day, once again, they will be successful.

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Ahmadinejad On The Move
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Guess who is traveling again?
Ahmadinejad. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency Ahmadinejad is going to Syria on Thursday, spending the entire day in Damascus in honor of Bashar Assad's second seven-year term.

It is important for the Syrian and Iranian leaders to meet and to meet often.
The two countries are playing a very dangerous game and they must be sure to keep themselves from making mistakes.
They must constantly evaluate and revaluate their actions versus the actions of the West.

But all is not well in Iran.
On Sunday, 50 of Iran's most important economists ranted against Ahmadinejad and his economic policies for endangering their entire society. They said that he is eating away at the wealth of the country, especially the oil reserves. They fear the worst if fiscal responsibility does not take hold soon.

Is this the mistake that will topple Ahmadinejad?
Will internal strife, not external Western opposition, be his ultimate downfall?

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Iran Will Target 600 Israeli Sites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Bombastic statements are exaggerations, exaggerations of the truth.
Listen to what the Iranians said on Sunday.

Al Watan, a Qatar paper, has quoted diplomatic sources in Damascus issuing a threat to Israel.
According to the quote, Iran has targeted 600 targets in Israel for missile strikes if their country is attacked by either the United States or by Israel.
The report says that, when attacked, all 600 targets would be totally destroyed.

Of course Iran is exagerating.
600 accurate hits is highly unlikely and out of the question.
But even one partial hit would be devastiating for Israel.

Iran has capabiblities - attacks are not without cost.

Should we be the first to attack?
A miltiary strike against Iran must be considered, but only as a final resort, only as a pre-emptive strike.

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Abbas' New Government
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas just appointed and new set of ministers.
Well, sort of a new set of ministers.

I have read the Palestinian Code of Basic Law.
According to my understanding of the Code, Abbas is perfectly within his right to fire the prime minister - just as he did when Hamas representative Ismail Hanyih had the position. What happened this time is that Abbas asked Salam Fayyad to step down - and then promptly reappointed him. Fayyad, the old new Prime Minister, is now in charge of the new Palestinian government.

Also according to the Code, Abbas can appoint an emergency government for 30 days - but there's a catch:
All new ministers must be approved by the Palestinian Parliament and Abbas skipped that step.
He reappointed people whom he had previously appointed to his emergency government and even added two new ministers. The reappointments might just slip through a loophole, but the new appointments certainly do not.

So why did Abbas opt out of Parliamentary confirmation?
Because the majority of the Palestinian parliament is made up of Hamas.
So what can Abbas do in order to form and legally maintain a government?
Abbas must disband the Parliament and call for new elections.
And then together Abbas and Fayyad can plan a real future for their government.

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Nothing Changed in the Arab League
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

First, a meeting between Israel and the Arab League was scheduled.
Next, it was postponed for two weeks.
Now, the entire historic encounter has been cancelled.

The Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers had been selected as Arab League representatives, scheduled to meet Israelis in Israel on July 25th.
When the plans changed Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit issued a statement. He said: "[t]his is not a visit where the Arab League flag will be raised." "This is a matter of principle."
Instead, the two foreign ministers will visit, representing only their own countries.
Amr Moussa, head of the 22-nation Arab League, made his own announcement saying that the foreign ministers would not represent the Arab League.

What does it all mean?
It means that nothing has changed.
It means that the Arab League is entrenched in a vision that does not recognize Israel's right to exist.

What could have been a major step forward is now a lost opportunity.
What a shame.

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Al Qaeda Loves Summer
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff confided to the editorial board of the Chicago Tribune that he has a "gut feeling" that there may be a terror attack this summer. "Summertime seems to be appealing to them" he said.

One person's gut feeling is another person's educated guess.
Michael Chertoff is correct, and we all know it.
Two weeks ago there were two bungled plots in the United Kingdom.
Last summer the Brits broke up a ring that was trying to smuggle explosives onto trans-Atlantic flights and blow them up midway.
The summer before that there was the devastating July 7th London tube bombing and later the failed duplicate bombing.

What's so hot about summer? Why is it al Qaeda's season of choice?
Because the more tourists there are, the more victims there are.
Because with so many strangers milling about, terrorists do not stand out.
Because with all the sightseeing going on, terrorists have ample time to scope out and research their targets.
Because the day is longer and people stand out less during the day and are much less suspicious looking than they are at night.
Because it is easier to buy bomb making materials during BBQ season, when purchasing propane gas is so commonplace, than any other time of year.
Because it is easier to buy fertilizer, another ingredient for explosives, when everyone else is buying fertilizer.

Yes, Michael, summer is a good time for a terrorist attack.

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Arab League Talks With Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League is getting ready to engage positively with Israel.
This is not a typo. The Arab League ... engaging positively ... with Israel.

From the time of its inception the Arab League has been virulently anti-Israel.
Now the member nations have cautiously agreed to a sit down with "the enemy."
The 22 nation Arab League, represented by the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan, is coming to Israel.
And it is happening this week, and it is happening in Jerusalem.

This historic meeting was arranged in order to move the Saudi Plan ahead.
This historic meeting directly implies acceptance by the Arab League of Israel's right to exist - not just the acceptance of Egypt and Jordan, the acceptance of all League's nation members.

It does not matter that Israel will reject numerous points on the Plan.
What matters is that Israel is now de facto negotiating with 22 Arab countries all of whom, at one time or another, have expressed the desire to push Israel into the sea.
Whatever the results, this is history in the making.

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UN Acts In Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have broken with tradition.
UNIFIL raided and arrested a terrorist group that was planning to attack a UN German Military boat.
That is not what UN Forces usually do.

But these are not usual times.
UN forces have been hit very hard of late. The last attack took place on June 24th when 6 Spanish soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb set by terrorists.

The terrorists planning the military boat attack were not the same group that perpetrated the June 24th bombing. These terrorists were not yet perpetrators, they were in training, plotting a future event. They were arrested at their training facility in northern Lebanon, on the shore, practicing land sea maneuvers.

In the eyes of the terrorists UN troops are easy targets.
In uncovering the terrorist plot and then actually arresting the terrorists the UN is acknowledging that they are no longer simply observers in Lebanon.
UN Forces must do more than simply defend themselves - they must search out and destroy the terrorists.

Congratulations to the United Nations.
Congratulations for finally standing up and doing the right thing.

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Iran & Belarus
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not even know where Belarus is, let alone care about who leads the Belarus government.
That is about to change.

Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has just made it clear to the world that his country's "... cooperation with Iran in the military - technical sphere is based on the development, above all, high technologies."

In plain English, Lukashenko is referring to nuclear technology. His comment was made after meeting Mustafa Mohammed Najjar, Iran's minister of defense.
Najjar responded that Belarus has a special place in Iran's foreign policy.

Belarus is a teetering country, barely held together by a dictatorship that has been in place since 1994.
Lukashenko is an oppressive dictator - the White House has actually termed him "the last dictator." He not only provided haven to many Iraqi Bathists leaders, he actually gave them passports and asylum.

This alliance is greatly troubling.
Nuclear weapons in Lukashenko's hands are like a time bomb with an unpredictable fuse.

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Why Hamas Released Johnston
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Why did Hamas help release BBC radio correspondent Alan Johnston?

The PC reason:
The real leader of Hamas, Haled Mashal, who is the director of Hamas' Politburo headquartered in Damascus said that Hamas actually cares.
He said that they were reaching out to the international community to show that Hamas can provide order.
He said, "We have been able to close this chapter which has harmed the image of our people greatly. The efforts by Hamas have produced the freedom of Alan Johnston."

The PR reason:
Hamas was trying to get back into the good graces of the Arab world which has, with the exception of Iran, Syria and al Qaeda, rejected Hamas.
Hamas was out to prove that they can solve their foreign public relations problems simply by freeing Johnston.

The PA reason:
Hamas was saying that now the streets of Gaza are safe.

The entire ordeal took only a few hours once Hamas decided to act.
Hamas was part of the solution, but Hamas was also part of the problem.
Package it any way you want, the rest of the Arab world knows the truth.

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Johnston is Free
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Kidnapped BBC correspondent Alan Johnston is free.

But we must not let ourselves be fooled - this is not the beginning of the end.
Tensions between Palestinians - in Gaza and in the West Bank - are growing.
The conflict is intensifying and will continue to intensify.

A little background:
Hamas declared that it would not tolerate militias and other armed groups in Gaza - they create anarchy.
Then Hamas openly declared war on the Army of Islam, the group that held Johnston and to make their point even stronger, kidnapped Mumtaz Dughmush, the Army of Islam's religious leader in Gaza.
In response, the Army of Islam kidnapped 10 Hamas people.
Everyone was released in the move that ultimately led to Johnston's freedom.

Now we must puzzle out who was pulling the strings of the Johnston kidnappers. For 4 months Hamas said they were doing everything in their power to free him.
In the end, it all came together in 36 hours.

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Nasser's Son In Law Killed In London
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ashraf Marwan was a wealthy Egyptian businessman.
Ashraf Marwan was also the son-in-law of former Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Ashraf Marwan, 62 years old, was found dead on Wednesday.
His body was found in London, outside the luxury apartment complex in which he had lived for twenty years.

This death is very suspicious.
One of the many reasons is that for many years, Ashraf Marwan was suspected of being a double agent.
An agent for Egypt - and an agent for Israel.
No matter that his father-in-law was Nasser, an Egyptian spying for Israel is a line that can never be crossed.

Ashraf Marwan was buried on Sunday in Cairo.

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Terror in England and Scotland
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

What is going on in London and Glasgow?
What's with the car bombs and suicide bombers?
Why there? Why now?

The answer is simple - July 4th.
In the mind of the al Qaeda July 4th is a symbol - and the closest these terrorist can get to the United States is hitting her friend, ally, and partner The United Kingdom. That was the reason for the timing of July 7th London tube bombing that killed 52 people.

To the terrorist - Western is Western - and Western means American.
There is no re-educating the Muslim mind on this issue.
London and Glasgow are stand-ins, understudies for New York and Washington.
It is easier to hit England and other European Western cities than US cities.
So London will remain a target.

These terrorist attacks and attempted attacks have nothing to do with policy.
These terrorist attacks have nothing to do with Blair, Gordon, Clinton or Bush.
These terrorist attacks have everything to do with culture, values and symbols.

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Palestinian State?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Just because the Palestinians want a state does not mean they should have one.
Just because Fatah has separated from Hamas does not make the Palestinians capable of managing an independent state.

Hatred of Israel is the only thing that unites the Palestinian people.
Hatred is hardly a foundation on which to build a state.
Hatred is a great catalyst but not for building - it is a catalyst for destruction.

Palestinian leadership needs to define who they are.
Palestinian leadership needs to clarify what they want out of a state.
When that has been accomplished, then Palestinian leadership can begin to build a state by convincing the Palestinian masses of the rightness of their approach.

Self rule for the sake of self rule is a synonym for anarchy.
That is the state of Palestinians today.
It can only get worse.

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Teheran is Aflame
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Summer's heat is beating down and Teheran is burning - literally and figuratively.

Tuesday was a very hot day in Teheran and it became even hotter after local kids set fire to a gas station in a northern section of the city.
The kids were protesting the new policy of rationing gas.
Yup, the second largest OPEC oil producer is now rationing its own gas.

The kids lit the flame, threw stones and chanted their message:
"Guns. Fireworks. Tanks. Ahmadinejad should be killed."

Frustration and discontent run rampant in Iran.
Like the women of Iran, most of the anger is covered up and veiled.
Most of the anger is directed against Ahmadinejad and the ruling Islamic leadership.

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PA Gave Hamas Intel
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It is official:
Hamas paid Fatah officers to inform them about the strength and security of Abbas' forces in Gaza.
These officers were on the take for a significant amount of time.
In exchange for money they divulged all the inner workings of the Fatah security systems - the who, the where, the when and the what.

There's more:
Not only did they literally sell out Fatah, they intentionally led lackluster defenses.
Most of these officers are still in Gaza and charges against them are being proffered in the West Bank, the Fatah stronghold.

How much did it take to buy them off?
A mere pittance, a few pence - and now the entire future of the Palestinian cause is in jeopardy because of a few silly, selfish and self destructive men.

The recently demoted head of Fatah security in Gaza said: "This battle was lost to begin with, because the members of the Palestinian security forces were not trained to kill their brothers."
They might not be trained to kill their brothers, but they helped others to kill them.
Hamas? Hamas does not care about brotherhood.
They do not care who they kill.

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Australian Shiites are All Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 24, 2007
I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes it is all about perspective.
Sometimes it is absolutely about what is right and what is wrong.

Sheikh Kamal Mousselmani, head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council of Australia, just came out with statements condemning John Howard, the prime minister of Australia, supporting Hezbollah and deriding Israel.

Mousselmani said: that Howard's support for Israel is "encouraging terrorism" and that supporting Zionism was "encouraging Israel to kill our people daily."

Mousselmani said: "If Australia supports Israel, they are defending terrorism. Because we believe terrorists come from Israel. Not from our people. I support Hezbollah."

Mousselmani said: "Our opinion is that Hezbollah is not a terrorist group. We consider Hezbollah a resistance group. Put those words down, we are not afraid to say that."

Mousselmani is absolutely wrong.
Not only is he wrong, he is misleading the 30,000 Shiites he leads in Australia.
This is not about perspective, this is just absolutely frightening.

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The Summit
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli prime minister and the Palestinian president are set to meet.
Olmert and Abbas will be meeting on Monday in Sharm el Sheik.
Mubarak of Egypt and Adbullah of Jordan will join them.
The purpose of the meeting is to give support to the Palestinian president.

Egypt has already publicly declared that they will not permit a radical Islamic state to develop in Gaza.
Egypt and Jordan must be urged to act to help the Palestinians in the West Bank as well as in Gaza.
Declarations are well and fine, but actions speak louder than words.

Israeli Likud leader Netanyahu is in DC lobbying for help for the Palestinians.
That is important.
But Israel should not be expected to fight the battle for Fatah against Hamas.
Jordan and Egypt have more to lose than does Israel if Hamas gains power.

Abbas wants Israel to promise a relaxation of conditions and the transfer of the $600 million in taxes that has been withheld since Hamas took power.
That part is practically a done deal, but it won't solve the Palestinian problem.
What the Palestinians really need is for Jordan and Egypt to take care of Hamas.

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The New Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza has declared itself an Islamic state, expect real changes.
The first groups to be affected will be women and Christians.

Sheik Abu Saqer, leader of Jihadia Salafiya recently announced: "I expect our Christian neighbors to understand the new Hamas rule means real changes.
They must be ready for Islamic rule if they want to live in peace in Gaza."
He continued:
"Jihadia Salafiya and other Islamic movements will ensure Christian schools and institutions show publicly what they are teaching to be sure they are not carrying out missionary activity. No more alcohol on the streets. All women, including non-Muslims, need to understand they must be covered at all times while in public."
He claimed:
that the 2000 Christians living in Gaza are "proselytizing and trying to convert Muslims with funding from American evangelicals."
"This missionary activity is endangering the entire Christian community in Gaza."

"The situation has now changed 180 degrees in Gaza," he announced.
That, I would say, is an understatement.

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Hamas Targets Americans
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Twelve members of a terrorist cell were just arrested by Israel.
The terrorists are members of the Israel the PFLP, The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, headquartered just south of Hebron.

The plot was:
to destroy a synagogue in Modiin, a large Israeli city situated exactly halfway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
to capture Americans and then negotiate their release in exchange for the release of their imprisoned leader Sadaat.
That part of the plan is particularly frightening, never before has this happened.

Americans in Israel have never before been the target, they have been the victims caught in the crosshairs of happenstance. They were hands off.
We are witnessing a dramatic change in terrorist style and objectives.

From the interrogation we know that the orders for this plot originated in Gaza.
Americans in Israel are now in danger.

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Hamas vs. Fatah, Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday, June 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Mohamed Dahlan has a unique take on the defeat of his Fatah party by Hamas. In Gaza, the strongman of Fatah was quoted yesterday saying: Ok, there was a Hamas coup and Hamas has taken over Gaza - now Gaza is their problem and they must run it.

The reality is that today Gaza is a mess with splits and tensions between Hamas clans and Hamas leaders. The tensions will now flow over onto the streets of Gaza. Hamasniks will soon kill other Hamasniks. That is the style of Hamas and Palestinian disputations.

The newly sworn in Prime Minister of the PA, Salam Fayad, is a very capable economist. Will he want to restore order? Will he want to create a secular Palestinian state? Does he have the strength and the weapons to do what must be done?

If Fatah wants to gain control they must strip Hamas of weapons. That means another all out civil war. Abbas passed a law yesterday making it illegal for Hamas to carry weapons and illegal for Hamas to have any military organizations.

Passing laws is the easy part, it is implementing those laws that is hard.

The days of Palestinian civil war - Fatah vs Hamas and Hamas vs Hamas - are not over.

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Arabs Reject Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The 22 countries that compose the Arab League met this weekend in Cairo.
The 22 countries voted to support the Abbas government and to reject Hamas.

This is an extremely important step.
The Arab world is petrified of Islamic radicalism - which Hamas represents.
The Arab world has, until now, been wary of criticizing Hamas.
Their rejection of Hamas is now very clear.
Egypt issued its own declaration: "From the Egyptian point of view, there is only one Palestinian government and this is the one formed by President Abu Mazen."

One of the most important tools to pressure and oust Hamas is force from the rest of the Arab world. The only real pro-Hamas country is Iran and even Iran has issued statements decrying the violence and pleading with Hamas and Fatah to unite against Israel the common enemy.

Hamas has succeeded in uniting the Arab world - uniting them against Hamas.

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UN Wants the US to Stay
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Even the UN Security Council agrees that the United States must stay in Iraq.
Surprised? Don't be.

Listen to what the Iraqis themselves are saying.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari addressed the Security Council.
He said: "the government has made tremendous strides toward the day when security will be provided by a self-sufficient, Iraqi national security force."
He said: "While Iraqis will always be grateful for their liberation from an absolute despot, no Iraqi government official - indeed, no Iraqi citizen - wants the presence of foreign troops on Iraqi soil one day longer than is vitally necessary."
He said: "But today, and for the foreseeable months at least, the presence of (multinational) troops is vitally necessary not only for Iraq but also to safeguard regional security and stability."

Iraq needs international help.
The United Nations knows it.
But you would never know it by monitoring the world press or listening to "informed" voices around the world and even in the United States.

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What Hamas Thinks
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

In the world according to Hamas:
Abbas and Fatah had their chance - they did nothing.
Abbas is impotent and powerless.

The truth is, Abbas could have crushed Hamas before their arms were build up.
The truth is, Abbas permitted Hamas the ability to rise up - served it to them on a silver platter.
The truth, Abbas should have and could have squashed Hamas.

But he didn't.
Abbas was afraid of civil war.
Abbas was paralyzed by the fear that he would be blessing and sponsoring internal conflict.
Abbas always hoped that the hatred of Israel would unite the Palestinians.

Hamas viewed the leadership style of Abbas as a sign of weakness and pounced. Even if he took action now, Hamas knows that it will be too little, too late for Abbas, his ideas and his leadership.

Hamas knows Abbas does not have the killer instinct.
Hamas has the killer instinct.

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It's About Family and Religion
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The civil war between Hamas and Fatah is more than a battle for power.
It is about family clans and tribes.
It is about religion.

"We're fighting for Islam and they are fighting for their salaries. As soon as we start shelling, the love of life will win out over the love of salary and we will win."
Those are the words of a Hamas fighter.

Hamas embraces radical Islam and Fatah does not.
The hatred is red hot and palpable.
Yesterday, after a Fatah clan surrendered to Hamas several dozen of the men, fearing for their lives, escaped to Egypt. And then Hamas publicly executed two prominent members of the family, two women killed in plain sight of the masses.

This conflict will not simply disappear.
This conflict cannot simply peter out and go away.

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Pot Calling the Kettle Black
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Talk about "the pot calling the kettle black"
The Iranians never cease to amaze me.

On Monday the Iranian ambassador to the UN submitted a formal complaint against Israel. The complaint was delivered to the acting president of the Security Council. It cited Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Former Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz.
The complaint was that they threatened to attack Iran and, according to UN rules and regulations, the two should be censured for using flagrant language.

The objectionable comment from Mofaz was made last week at a press conference in Washington DC after strategic planning meetings with the US concerning Iran.
He said:"[T]he military option is included in all the options that are on the table."
The objectionable comment from Olmert was one line from a German newspaper that was later retracted by the paper.

Iran can see only one side of every issue - their side.
It is OK for Iran to speak of the total annihilation of Israel, but no one may speak out against Iran.
What chutzpah!

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US Frowns on Israel Syria Talks
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I am perplexed by the timing of Israel's extension of an olive branch to Syria.
I am supportive of the rejection by the United States of Israel's overtures to Syria. There have been numerous backdoor negotiations with Syria for years and they have all amounted to nil.

The Deputy Spokesman at the State Department Tom Casey summed it up this way: "It's up to Israel to determine how it's going to conduct its diplomatic relations with Syria or with any other country.
We would certainly note that with respect to Syria, Syria has not to date taken any of the kind of positive steps that we would like to see happen with respect to Lebanon, with respect to its support for Palestinian rejectionist groups, with regard to the need to police its borders with Iraq to prevent foreign fighters from moving across.
And certainly, we think that would be something that Israel would like to consider."

Right now, Syria is carefully monitoring Israel's comments and the US response. Syria wants to be in the power seat in the negotiations. The "backdoor" has said that Israel wants Syria to abandon Iran, cut off ties to terror, and leave Lebanon alone. The Golan would become a demilitarized international park accessible to everyone and anyone while controlled by Syria.

The Syrian track is very bold.
The Syrian track is very dangerous.
I would not suggest that Israel pursue Syria right now.

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Indonesia Protests Against Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

In Indonesia today there were 2 large rallies protesting Israel.
The rallies were held in Jakarta and Medan, the two largest cities in Indonesia. The protests focused on Israel's human rights abuses over the past 40 years - since the Six Day War of 1967.

Indonesia is the most-populated Muslim country in the world.
Indonesia is one of the worst abusers of human rights in the world.
In February 2004 the US State Department's Human Rights Report described the Indonesian government's human rights record as "poor."

The report said: They have "continued to commit serious abuses."
Murders, torture, rape, beatings, and arbitrarily detaining civilians and members of separatist movements were all documented as abuses by security force members. The report accuses them of failiing to protect the rights of children, women, peaceful protesters, journalists, disabled persons, religious minorities, and indigenous people. Aceh and Papua provinces were where the most apparent human rights abuses took place.

These 20,000 protestors were probably professional rally goers.
If they did not attend the rally condemning Israel they would probably have been arrested and tortured or at the very least - they would not have been paid.



Spain Catches Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A Judge in Spain indicted 32 people on charges of belonging to a terrorist organization, it happened yesterday.
All 32 are members in Ansar al Islam, an affiliate of al Qaeda.

Most of those arrested are from the recruitment arm of Ansar al Islam.
Their job is to entice new people to sign on and fight for al Qaeda in Iraq.
Primary goals are fighting the Shiites, fighting Western influences and unseating and destabilizing non-Muslim governments.

Spain is still spinning form the horrific terrorist attacks that left 191 dead and 1824 wounded in Madrid on March 11, 2004.
The government is now actively trying to protect Spaniards from Islamic terror.
Spain's intelligence network is highly advanced and lawmakers are working to change laws and sentences so that convicted terrorist organizers receive serious jail time even before the heinous murderous attacks have been perpetrated.

The Western world has a lot to learn from Spain.
Bravo.



Al Sadr & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The religious guru Muqtada al-Sadr, an Iraqi Shiite, made an interesting comment on Thursday's Iraqi State TV.

He said: that he has "friendship and good relations" with Iran.
He said: "I must maintain friendship and good relations with Iran but nothing else." "
So, what does "nothing else" mean? It means that he rejects the influence and intimidation Iran is trying to exert on Iraq.

This is very important.
Al Sadr has been in hiding for the past 4 months.
Al Sadr emerged specifically to deliver a veiled threat against Iran.

Al Sadr has addressed some of the big fears and unanswered questions:
Will Iran and Iranian Shiite leadership impose their agenda on the Iraqi Shiites? Will Iraqis reject that pressure?

Al Sadr's comments may be an important indicator of Iraq's future.
But the question remains:
Al Sadr talks the talk but does he have the strength and power to walk the walk.



Ahmadinejad's Blog
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I read Ahmadinejad's blog.
I also read Iranian News Agency (IRNA) reports.
Much of what is written is hyperbole, purely sensational, what the famous Col. Potter from M.A.S.H. would call horse hockey.

The way to read these reports is not so much to read what is written, but to figure out why it was written and what was not written - that is how you get the gems of information crucial to understanding what is really happening inside Iran.

On Monday both the blog and the IRNA report described a conversation between Ahmadinejad and Bashar Assad of Syria - one conversation, two varying reports.
The essence of the conversation, however, was a decision by the Iranian and the Syrian to join forces in a coordinated effort confronting (i.e. destroying) Israel.

What makes that conversation newsworthy?
They spoke about confronting Israel at the very time that Israel and the United States spoke about advancing ties with Syria and about peaceful co-existence.

Which is it?
The answer is revealed on Ahmadinejad's blog.
When you scroll down to the part that refers to the Shiite Messiah, Mahdi, Ahmadinejad beseeches: "Oh Almighty Allah, bestow upon humanity the perfect human promised to all by You and make us among his followers."
Ahmadinejad is praying to Allah to send to him destroy his enemies.

Syria wants it both ways.
Syria wants to destroy Israel.
If they can't do it now they will take back the Golan and destroy Israel later.



Putin's Propoganda Ploy
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

America intends to create a missile shield against Iran and place it in Poland. Poland is very close to Russia and well within range of Russian targets.
Russia is not pleased and tensions between the US and Russia are very high.

The United States is trying to figure out a way to protect Europe from an impending Iranian nuclear threat.
The Russians are taking it personally, they see this decision as a direct threat.

Putin's recent comments smack of an arms race.
Putin's comments and his tone are not at all reflective of s strategy for a united front against a dangerous Iran.
Putin's comments have even raised the ire of NATO and NATO spokesman James Appathurai has called this attitude unhelpful and unwelcome.
Putin's comments remind me of the stuff said by the Soviets in the 70's.

Iran, on the other hand, sees the entire scenario as humorous.
Ali Larijani, head of Iranian nuclear negotiations, called the US defense shield "the joke of the year."
He said that Iranian missiles do not have the range to hit those parts of Europe. He said that the US knows that to be true.
He said that in his eyes and the eyes of Iran this US missile defense system in Poland is just one big propaganda ploy.

Putin agrees with Iran and is really calling the bluff of the United States.
Putin's attitude and uproar is the big propaganda ploy.



Hamas Commits Act of War
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Four Israelis were wounded in a mortar attack yesterday.
Almost immediately after the attack, Hamas claimed direct responsibility.

The three mortars were lobbed at the Erez check point, one of several crossing points from Gaza into Israel.
Erez is used predominately by Palestinain workers entering Israel.
Erez is also used as a way to truck Palestinian fruits and vegetables into Israel.

Hamas military and political and religious leaders attack Israel every day.
This time Hamas attacked an Israeli military position.
Put bluntly - Hamas committed an act of war.

Israel is responding - but so far, only gently and kindly resonding.
Israel must go after the military, political and religious leadership of Hamas - they are all united, they cannot be separated.
Each arm of Hamaas leadership plays a central role in directing these daily attacks against Israel.

These acts of war by Hamas must be countered with significant force.
It is time for Isrel to take real action.
It is time for Israel to "cancel with extreme prejudice."




Danger of Peace
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes making peace is more dangerous than the status quo.
Sometimes making peace can leave a country weaker rather than more secure.

Israel is contemplating resuming peace talks with Syria and has begun testing the waters.
Why - after all these years, why now?
Reason # 1: a potential miscalculation by Syria
Reason # 2: improved weapons and continued arms development by Syria

In the aftermath of last summer's war and the release of Israel's internal analysis of the war, Syria sees Israel was weak.
Extending the olive branch at this junction will, in the eyes of Syria, confirm the weakened status of Israel.

According to an Islamic tradition that dates all the way back to the time of the Koran a strong Muslim leader has the power to dictate all treaties with a weaker party and may even abrogate those treaties should he so desire.

If Syria - or any other Arab nation, senses that Israel comes to the peace table out of a position of weakness and fear Israel will be placed in a position configured specifically to put the country more at risk than to keep it safe.

To think that Israel is weak might be a miscalculation by Syria, but it is still the attitude and approach they will adopt at a peace table.



Peres And Babe Ruth
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Shimon Peres has declared his candidacy for President of Israel.
It is a largely ceremonial position, in Israel the power belongs to the Prime Minister.

For Peres, this is deja vu all over again.
In 2000 he lost what most analysts assumed was a done deal bid for the office.
Now, he wants to run again.

Shimon Peres has true international clout.
A Nobel Prize Laureate who speaks with a credible voice that nations respect, there is no doubt that as president Peres would have access to world leaders like no other Israeli leader has ever had - the country would benefit greatly.
But rather then wow the world, to become President of Israel Peres has to sway his colleagues in the Israeli Knesst.

Peres is a phenomenon - he has what I call the Babe Ruth/Michael Jordan syndrome. He just cannot walk quietly into the sunset. He runs the risk of diminishing the greatness of his career by hanging on and on and on.

Both his country and the man would be better served if Shimon Peres allowed himself to become a private citizen elder statesman offering the perspective of one who led Israel during many different and often difficult periods.

Instead, Shimon Peres will probably best be remembered as a leader who just never knew when to hang up his spikes, as a self-serving politician with a lust for power that drove him to self-implode.



Palestinian Premier Fears Death
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh is worried that Israel might target him.
He is in hiding, emerging only when he is very certain that he is very safe.

His fear is justified.
Israel should try to assassinate Haniyeh.
And Israel should also attempt to topple his Hamas government.

Hamas sponsors the lobbing of Qassam rockets into the Israeli city of Sderot.
Hamas is claiming victory over Israel saying they can fire with impunity.
Hamas refuses to accept the right of Israel to exist
Hamas has declared war on Israel.

If all these things are true - which they are - Israel has the right to self-defense.
The self-defense of Israel includes targeting the leader of their enemy, the leader of the Palestinian government.
Ismail Haniyeh, you have been warned.



Lebanon Fighting Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The fighting between the Lebanese army and the terrorist group Fatah al Islam continues.
And the fighting - still localized in a refugee camp near Tripoli-is fierce.
Over the past two weeks the death toll from daily skirmishes has risen way beyond 100.

We already knew that:
Fatah al Islam is sponsored by Syria
Fatah al Islam pledges allegiance to al Qaeda
Fatah al Islam is led by a Palestinian and the group is comprised of Palestinians, Lebanese and Syrians

Now we have surprising new information:
4 of the Fatah al Islam fighters killed during these skirmishes have been identified as Saudi fighters

Yesterday the two sides declared a truce - it was almost immediately broken.
No cease fire will ever hold between Palestinians and Lebanese unless everyone, not just splinter groups, is involved
everyone has somewhere else to turn their attention
It will never happen otherwise.



Turkey is in the Balance
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, an Islamic democracy and the modern world can actually coexist.
Sometimes, despite the obvious tensions and serious difficulties, they actually blend and result in a successful, working country.
Take Turkey, for example.

Since April there have been steady protests against the Islamification of Turkey.
Protests have taken place in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Samsun.
Saturday another such protest took place, this time in Denizeli, where thousands of participants took to the streets.

Since the establishment of modern Turkey the country has been secular with Islamic culture.
Until now the army and the government have always been able to keep the Islamic forces in check.
Now the situation is changing, the current prime minister is from an Islamic party and he is trying to ease more Islamic laws into Turkey.

Hopefully the Turks will be able to maintain their precarious balance.
If they fail there will be serious backlash - secular forces will not tolerate too much Islamic encroachment into their lives.



Sunni vs. Sunni
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A car bomb exploded at a funeral in Iraq yesterday.
24 mourners were killed.
Al Qaeda was sending a message, al Qaeda was targeting other Sunni Muslims.

Usually, al Qaeda just targets Shiites and Western forces.
The reasons are obvious.
Sunnis are the natural allies of al Qaeda.

So why did this happen? There is a simple answer.
This was the funeral of a 60 year old sheik, Sheik Alaa Zuwaid.
Sheikh Alaa Zuwaid was organizing anti-al Qaeda movements.
The Sheikh began his campaign after his 25 year old son was caught in the crossfire of infighting and killed as he walked down the street last month.
Since then he had been trying to get as many Sunni leaders as he could persuade to stand up and reject al Qaeda.
The al Qaeda response was to murder Sheikh Alaa Zuwaid and to attack his funeral.

Internal tensions are emerging in Iraq.
Significant forces are starting to show disgust with al Qaeda.
That is good, very good.



Arab League Condemns Fatah al Islam
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League has just done something it has never done before.
The Arab League has just condemned Fatah al Islam.
Fatah al Islam is the terrorist thug organization now engaged in a mini war with the Lebanese army that has, so far, resulted in the deaths of about 75 people and injuries to well over 100.

The Arab League statement came after a long day of meetings on the topic.
Using unusually strong language the official Arab League statement said that they: "strongly condemned the criminal and terrorist acts carried out by the terrorist group known as Fatah al-Islam." They said: this group "has no relation to the Palestinian question or Islam."

"strongly condemned criminal and terrorist acts."
Those are strong words coming from an organization that rarely does anything to condemn terror.
Those are strong words from an organization that usually defines terrorists as liberators fighting the Zionists.

This is a significant step for the 22 member countries of the Arab League.
Now, if only those 22 member countries would be as critical of these acts within their own countries the world would have a better chance at fighting terror.



Convicting Terrorists At Last
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, a court has begun to convict terrorists for plotting to attack the US and joining forces with our enemies.

Earlier this week a US District Court in NY convicted Rafiq Sabir, a 52 year old American doctor, of pledging allegiance to al Qaeda.

Sabir, originally recruited by an FBI agent, was convicted not because he went to Afghanistan, but because authorities have him on tape taking an oath to Sheik Osama and al Qaeda.
The other parties in the bundle, the taxi driver and the martial arts expert, plead guilty in a deal.
This case is a big feather in the cap of the US Justice Department.

All three terrorists will do time, but anyone looking at the cases carefully will see how woefully and poorly our legal system is on this level.
None of the players was trained or stepped foot in a terrorist training camp.
None of the players met with any al Qaeda personalities, they met only the FBI. The players were checking out sites for a camp in the US.
The players were checking out possible target sites in the US.

The reality is that this group was not really capable of putting a plan together.
The reality is that this group was definitely the enemy.
The reality is that this time the government got lucky.
The reality is that we cannot rely on luck.




Who Supports & Who Condemns
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Qassam rockets have become routine for the Israeli residents of Sderot.
A routine nightmare.

Israel is trying to counter the barrage using helicopter gunships to strike at the people launching these portable rockets.
Israel is also countering the barrage by hitting Hamas leaders.

The Israeli response is justified.
The Pope came out with a statement saying that Israel must protect its citizens.
The US came out with a public statement justifying the Israeli counter attack. Sean McCormack, US State Department spokesman, said: "Israel is faced with the difficult challenge countering these continued rocket attacks from Gaza into Israeli territory." He continued, "they have a right to defend themselves."

The Arab world has condemned the Israeli response.
Many in the Arab world are demanding international investigation and even prosecution.
Saudi Arabia has demanded that the international community investigate these attacks and then force Israel to accept the Arab peace plan.
Well, what do you know?!



Important Info from the IDF
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

When the Israeli Army, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), sends out an update from the field it is a sure bet that they have important information to impart.
The reports are very short and to the point.

Last night I received an IDF update:
17 Kassam rockets shot from Gaza fell into Israel on Saturday.
Over the past 4 days 110 rockets were shot and fell in Israel.

The idea is very hard to fathom.
Do the math - Hamas is lobbing an average 27.5 rockets per day into Israel.

Israel has only now begun to respond and even that response is minimal.
The Palestinian rockets are small, launchers are smaller, portable and leave no trace. Within seconds the launchers are up and gone.

Hamas has pledged not to stop until Israel puts a stop to retaliatory aerial raids.
To quote from the movie Cool Hand Luke:
"What we have here is a failure to communicate"

The hard cold reality is that the only response that will stop the rockets is to wipe out Hamas and Israel is not willing to go that route.
At least, not yet.



Israel Needs the US
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A new survey of Israeli public opinion has just been released.
71% of Israelis want the United States to strike Iran if diplomacy fails.
59% of Israelis feel that the war in Iraq is justified.

This study was conducted by Bar Ilan University and the ADL (Anti Defamation League).
It shows where Israelis stand on matters involving the United States in the Middle East region.

91% of Israelis said that relations with the United States are an essential component of Israeli security.
65% said that the US is a loyal friend of Israel.

Throughout the past decade Israelis have been looking for support from around the world, especially from the United States.
This survey demonstrates that the trend is continuing.

Israelis feel that the United States is a friend.



Iran is Ready
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Of course.
Iran is further along the nuclear path than the US and the IAEA thought.
They were very conservative because they were afraid of the potential ramifications.
The Administration understood this, the diplomats did not.

Israel got it right.

What is so surprising about the new reports is that anyone is surprised. Iran has been publicly announcing all along that they are making more and more progress.
The United States and international experts doubted the veracity of Iran's reportage.
Yes, Iran has been exaggerating - but not much.

Never underestimate the other side.
Certainly never underestimate the other side if you are a diplomat dealing with a potentially explosive situation. The US and the IAEA have blown it big time with Iran.



What's In Libya's Future
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There are rumor and reports that Libya's Muammar Ghadaffi had a stroke.
The family forcefully denies the report and any notion that Ghadaffi is unwell.

Ghadaffi is not a man who hides from the press.
The state of his health will be determined by how quickly he makes his next public appearance and the shape he is in.
Ghadaffi stands alone in holding his country together.
And so ...
The issue of Ghadafi's health has forced the obvious question.
Who will succeed this Libyan leader?

Ghadaffi has not adequately groomed a successor.
Ghadaffi has 8 children, 7 sons and 1 daughter.
If he becomes incapable of ruling I would anticipate a power sharing situation between his sons Saif al Islam and Mustasim Billah along with his daughter who recently received a flurry of media attention as one of Saddam's lawyers.

If Ghadaffi is ill Libya is in for major change.
Either a revolution or a real police crack down.
Or both.



Iran Says Farewell to Blair
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Historians and ideologues will argue about the subject for years.
Doctoral dissertations will be written.
It is certainly the end of an era.
Tony Blair is stepping down, leaving office, shrugging off the mantle of leadership.

Was the world a better place with Blair in a leadership role?
England, the United States and the West will reserve judgment for a long while.
Iran has already taken their stand, Iranian sentiments are clear.
Iran is anti-Blair.

Officially, Iran welcomed Blair's exit and expressed hope for better interaction with the new UK leadership - if they change policy.
Of course Iran would like nothing more than for the UK and the entire world to change policy and conform to Iran's own warped perspective of the world.
But that will not happen.
England may reduce troops in Iraq but England will not, under any leadership, look kindly on a nuclear Iran.

Dream on, Iran.



Assad's Preconditions for Peace
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

President Bashar Assad of Syria addressed his new and powerless parliament this past Thursday on the prospects of peace with Israel.

Assad had several points to make. This is what he said:
Point # 1: "Syria has not presented any preconditions for the peace process, but we do have demands."
Point # 2: "The land is a basic principle for us, and we will never relinquish it."
Point # 3: "The Golan Heights region is not open to negotiation."
Point # 4: "We are working toward a just and comprehensive peace."
Point # 5: "Israel is incapable of conducting comprehensive and just negotiations because its government is too weak to take the necessary steps."
That has become a perennial favorite of the president.

What Assad is really saying is that he has a basic precondition for peace.
What Assad is really saying is: Return the Golan Heights and then we can talk.

The reality is that Syria has no interest in peace.
Syria has an interest in being brought out of the "diplomatic cold."
Syria will say and sign anything in order to bring that about.
Syria cannot be trusted.



The Muslims of Michigan
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslims of Michigan have recently signed an agreement to set aside the centuries old dispute between Shiites and Sunnis.

After some recent violence the leaders have decided to put aside differences and unite by creating a treaty.
Sounds like a great idea - but it is truly impossible to unite Shiites and Sunnis.

Why is it impossible to unite Shiites and Sunnis?
Because of "takfir" an Islamic term which literally means "excommunication."
The word "takfir" comes from the root "kufr" which means "non-believer."
From there the concept of "takfir" evolves.
A "takfir" results from a situation in which a person or group rejects the principles of their faith.
That is exactly how Shiites perceive the Sunni.
That is exactly how Sunnis perceive the Shia.
They consider each other to be heretics.

This Michigan Agreement is based on a perception of Muslim unity. It is predicated on the belief that the sides can unite against a common enemy and set aside theological differences. But in reality they cannot. The hostility between Shiites and Sunnis goes too deep and has been there for so very long.

A takfir is a takfir and with a takfir comes persecutions and even deaths.
All that cannot be erased, not even in Michigan.



VIolence in France
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Most Americans really do not care what happens in France.
But whether Americans care or not, it is important to pay attention to the French now.
France's election results impact not only the French, but on America and the rest of the world.

Nicholad Sarkozy just won the presidential election.
Nicholad Sarkozy is a conservative.
On the streets of France there has been a violent backlash - not with the same intensity as the street violence of a year ago November, but certainly similar.
The first night after the election 292 cars were torched.
The next night 198 cars were torched.

French authorities say that things are calming down.
This is what I say:
Mainstream France is moving to the right - that is good for US and French relations. But there is a small vocal and even violent minority that rejects this move. These loud and violent few are taking it to the streets.

Mainstream France is beginning to understand that the country needs to conform to the standard set by the rest of the West. The violent few still want to frighten the rest of France and that will just backfire.

That is how and why Sarkozy came to be elected.



NASRALLAH, WINOGRAD, DEMOCRACY
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 8, 2007

Column:

Know thine enemy the phrase goes. Good advice, but to borrow from another popular saying, a little easier said than done.

One of the best ways of knowing what an enemy is really thinking, planning and plotting is to listen to what is being said. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the undisputed leader of Hezbollah, recently gave us a glimpse of his thinking, a peek into the mind of this enemy, an opportunity to see the wheels turn, to understand how his decisions are made and how his conclusions are determined. He gave us insight into his analysis and his own world view.

This true enemy of the West and Israel, and of everyone and everything outside his own religious domain regularly speaks to his adherents through the medium of television and radio. Nasrallah is most often seen and heard on Hezbollah stations, but sometimes, when he has an important message intended for greater audiences, he ventures out of home court and finds a larger arena through which to speak his mind.

The round faced cleric with the steely eyes is most often heard delivering sermons. He is a Sheikh and he is a leader and his chosen method of delivery is religiously motivated but with a modern twist. His sermons always, inevitably, deal with political and practical issues. Never are his sermons strictly theological, they are always grounded in the here and now.

I listen very carefully to most of the comments of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. I paid even closer attention to his spoken observations on the occasion of the release of the Winograd Commission, the partial report issued by Israel devoted to an analysis of the process that went into decision making this past summer in their war with Hezbollah. He began by describing to his audience what the Commission was and why it was indeed named the Winograd Report. And then he applied his own logic to the report.

Speaking on Iranian television, in his own, translated, words, Nasrallah said: "Winograd is the Israeli leader appointed chairman of the commission established following the failures of the last war, as the Israelis put it."

He went on: "The commission has determined once and for all the issue of victory and defeat. There are those in Israel who say that they won and those who say they lost. The commission has determined they lost. There are over 100 occurrences of the word defeat in the report. That is the result."

He had more to say on the issue. This time for his forum Nasrallah chose the opening of a book fair in Southern Beirut that was held on a lot that had been leveled by Israel during the summer war. Nasrallah continued his theme.
"I will not gloat," he said. But "it is worthy of respect that an investigative commission appointed by Olmert condemns him."

He was, of course, gloating. And he continued: "The first important outcome of this commission is that it has finally and officially decided the issue of victory and defeat ... This commission spoke about a very big defeat."

The Sheikh then teased Israel's Defense Minister Amir Peretz, the man who had dared to taunt Hassan Nasrallah during the first week of the war saying that the leader of Hezbollah will never forget the name "Amir Peretz."

Nasrallah said: "I stand here today not in order to attack Peretz. Peretz said that 'Nasrallah will never forget the name Amir Peretz.' I tell him, you are right, I will never forget that name."

Nasrallah has never complimented Israel - not about anything, certainly not about performance during war. These statements were intended to be perceived as a jab at Israel. Nasrallah wanted to show the Arab world the foibles of Israel. But he showed the rest of the world, the Western world, something else. Nasrallah showed us that he has a deeper understanding of democracy and a higher respect for committees of inquiry than we had ever suspected of him. Most importantly, Nasrallah showed that he monitors Israeli news very carefully and that his own policy is determined by what he sees and perceives as going on in Israeli society and government.

His perceptions, however, are not always on target. Whatever understanding of democracy Nasrallah showed was shattered by his personal conspiracy theory - a theory that the United States forced the hand of Israel during the war. The Arab world is rife with conspiracies. This one is blatantly false. The reality is that the United States did not force Israel at all into this war with Hezbollah. The United States took a step backwards giving Israel a free hand. The ultimate irony is that had Israel listened to the United States, the war would have taken an entirely different form and there never would have been a Winograd Commission. The urging of the United States to Israel during this war was to take off the kid gloves and forge ahead.

Nasrallah and the Arab world celebrated the Winograd Report without really understanding the Winograd Report. Democracies gain their power through voting. Commissions and rallies and protests can help sway governments and formulate policy - but nothing is more important than the voice of the people as heard on election day.

And that is something that Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and the enemies of democracy and the West have never experienced and will never know.



Mickey Mouse and Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

If you saw him, you would swear you were looking at Mickey Mouse.
But it's not Mickey. It's Farfur.
And Farfur is the star of a Hamas TV show.

Forget copyright infringement for a minute - this is much worse.
Farfur is about abusing a symbol and the brainwashing of kids.

Farfur thrives on violence, fighting and unrest.
Farfur routinely tells his young audience that Islam is going to take over the world.
Farfur preaches about the need to fight the Zionists and the Occupiers.
In one scene Farfur talks to a young Palestinian girl named Sarraa and the dialogue goes: "We are setting with you the cornerstone for world leadership under Islamic leadership. Isn't it so?"

Everyone loves Mickey.
This is an abuse of faith and of childhood.
The creators of Farfur and the Hamas TV show should be stopped - if not by the lawyers then by the millions of people who really believe in the power of Disney's Mouse.

Remember:
It's a world of laughter, a world or tears
It's a world of hopes, it's a world of fear
There's so much that we share
That it's time we're aware
It's a small world after all

CHORUS:
It's a small world after all

There is just one moon and one golden sun
And a smile means friendship to everyone.
Though the mountains divide
And the oceans are wide
It's a small, small world



Zawahri Slams US
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Osman bin Laden's number 2, Dr. Ayman Zawahri, is at it again.
True to his style he tried to bolster the al Qaeda cause by striking out at the West.

Zawahri took a jab at the US Congress on the occasion of the vote to reduce United States forces and spending in Iraq.
This is what he said as heard on a video posted on an al Qaeda website:
"We ask Allah that they only get out after losing 200,000 to 300,000 killed, so that we give the blood spillers in Washington and Europe an unforgettable lesson to motivate them to review their entire doctrinal and moral system."

Zawahri has been the voice of al Qaeda ever since bin Laden dropped off the media radar.
Zawahri repeatedly mocks the United States and her allies.
Zawahri delivers messages that have a single purpose.
Zawahri is dedicated to galvanizing world support for the al Qaeda cause.



The US is Out of Touch
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The US just submitted Benchmarks for Agreement on Movement and Access (AMA) to Israel and the Palestinians.

This diplomatic document pinpoints exactly where the United States stands when it comes to Israel and the Palestinians.
This diplomatic document shows that the United States is totally out of touch with the situation.

The document contains a list of items to be dealt with and then dates of implementation next to each item, hence the title benchmark.
Who are the Palestinians who are supposed to apply this agreement?
Abbas and Dahlan.
But Abbas and Dahlan have no power and no authority.
Of course the leaders of Hamas have rejected the document.
Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashal has publicly denounced the entire concept.

Does the US actually believe that because they put it in writing Hamas will adhere to the will of the United States?
Does the US actually believe that Abbas is capable of convincing Hamas?
Doesn't the US realize that they are not empowering Abbas - they are humiliating him.
Doesn't the US realize that they are showing the entire region how little they really understand about what is actually happening?

For shame.



The Violinist Wore Red
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

So this is how it went:
The Iranian foreign minister was supposed to be seated opposite Condi Rice at a formal dinner that took place during the Egyptian summit.
The dinner arrangement was artfully, diplomatically, designed to be an informal ice breaker.
Just as he was about to be seated, the Iranian caught a glimpse of the violinist scheduled to perform during the dinner.
He turned around and walked out.

The violinist was a woman.
She was dressed in red.
She was dressed in a risque red dress.
At least, that is the way the Iranian foreign minister perceived the situation.

Red is a particularly problematic color for a woman to wear in many cultures.
Red shows a lack of modesty, a low cut red is even worse - insult on injury.

Even the Egyptians, cultural cousins of the Iranians, are guilty of faux pas.
Even the Egyptians do not understand the Iranians.
What can we really expect from the West and the rest of the world?



Let Them Have Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is racing towards nuclear development.
The West is trying to monitor Iran's race toward nuclear development.
The two are headed towards a standoff.

While Iran and the West may be at odds over the situation, this is not a purely black and white issue.
There is a lot of grey area here.
It is that grey area that may provide the "out" necessary to avoid a standoff.

What precisely is the grey area? The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty permits members the right to develop nuclear energy - as long as those countries are monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency of the UN.(IAEA)
Iran has signed the treaty.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Claude Mandil, put ti perfectly. He said: "I don't see why a country like Iran could not have nuclear power as part of its energy mix."

This could very well be the compromise everyone had been looking for.
This could be the way out of a sticky, dangerous, international dilemma.
Let's watch and see.



Condi's Syrian Agenda
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Rumor has it (and it has been already confirmed) that US Secretary of State Condi Rice met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem.
The "meet" took place while they were both in Egypt attending a 2-day summit.

There is no doubt about Rice's agenda:
Iraq, Lebanon and the region.
Stop sponsoring terror. Stop sponsoring terror. Stop sponsoring terror.
Meeting with Syria in order to elicit support is very dangerous.
Bringing Syria "in" comes with a very high price, a price Syria will exact.
That price tag will certainly include tremendous pressure on Israel.

And there's more. Any discussion with Syria assumes that Syria can and will and wants to deliver. That is where everything falls apart. Delivery for Syria means turning their back on Iran.

I do not trust Syria to be a reliable partner.
Everything for Syria is about propping up a dictator who hangs on by the skin of his teeth, everything is about the best interests of Bashar Assad.

Diplomats beware.



Abbas Abets the Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian government knows the secret location of BBC journalist Alan Johnston, kidnapped by Hamas terrorists who pledge allegiance to al Qaeda.
So says the president of the Palestinian Authority according to a quote coming out of Germany.

Here is the problem:
Abbas said that the British agreed to proceed quietly so as not to endanger his life.
Knowing where Johnston is and not trying to free him makes Abbas an accomplice - he is aiding and abetting the terrorists.

What should Abbas do?
Either launch a raid or negotiate Johnston out.
If Abbas really knows where Johnston is, he has the options.
The Palestinians cannot keep him indefinitely.
By not acting the PA is opening the flood gates for more kidnappings.

As it is Abbas has been emasculated by Hamas, now he is being humiliated by terrorist thugs and hooligans.
He must act - but that is not his style.
Abbas' career has been marked by a long series of inactions and non-decisions.



Iraqis Are Raping Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:


To understand the status of the "Palestinian Cause" in the rest of the Arab world, take a look at the status of Palestinians in Iraq.

For months Palestinians have been attacked and even forced out of Baghdad. Now, in a city named Ramadi, the capital of the Anbar Province (about 60 miles west of Baghdad), Palestinians are being threatened, intimidated and beaten.

Ahmed Raki, a 43-year-old Palestinian father of three lives in Ramadi.
He described how "[t]wo girls from our community were raped last week by militants who told them that it was a message to the Palestinians in Anbar to leave the area."

Ahmed Muffitlak, a spokesman for a Palestinian aid group gave this report:
"At least 17 families have fled Ramadi after militants gave them a week to leave their homes or become the next victims of violence in Iraq."

Anbar is a Sunni province!
Palestinians in Iraq are being attacked by Sunnis!

I am not drawing parallels.
I am not arguing about better or worse.
I am trying to show the status of the "Palestinian Cause" even amongst Sunni and al Qaeda activists.



Iran Is Laughing
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

OMV is an Austrian energy company.
OMV is now negotiating a fuel deal with Iran.
OMV is scheduled to develop Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The USA is livid.

How angry/upset/ticked off is the United States?
US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack put it this way:
"perhaps this is not the most appropriate time to be making or committing to making large investments in the Iranian oil and gas sector."

Honestly, how can THE West exert pressure on Iran if countries like Austria permit their companies to do business with the Iranians?!
They can't.

And why can't they?
Because the UN Security Council Resolution on nuclear issues does not prohibit this type of nuclear development and activity.

Pass appropriate resolutions.
Put real pressure on Iran.
Otherwise, it is all a big joke and Iran is laughing out loud.



Iran Controls Russia
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The dispute was over payment for the building of the nuclear power plant that the Russians are building for the Iranians at Busher.
Now, after four rounds of negotiations, it seems that Russia and Iran have come to an agreement.

The entire relationship has been troubled because Iran was dissatisfied with the speed with which the Russians were completing the agreed upon task.
In January Iran paid the Russians only $5 million of their promised $25 million per month fees.
In February, they only paid partially again, this time $10 million.
This agreement will put the construction back on track.

Originally, Iran's newest and most powerful nuclear power plant was to be completed by August. Now, the timetable is unclear.

Russia has always maintained that they will control Iran's nuclear development. From this agreement it appears that it is Iran that controls Russia.
But really, Russia's most important priority was getting paid.



Al Qaeda In Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda is developing a stronghold in Gaza.

Last year we would all have said no way, impossible.
We would have said al Qaeda and the Palestinians just do not mix.
Even after their election Hamas repeatedly said that the Hamas agenda and the al Qaeda did not jive.

Today there are strong indications that al Qaeda has insinuated itself into Gaza.
Small groups that profess allegiance to al Qaeda have begun operating in Gaza. These groups reject the PA and its Authority, reject Israel and reject the West, especially the United States. These groups have separated themselves from the mainstream Palestinian extremists. These groups are non-compromising.

Some serious analysts believe that the Hamas group that kidnapped both Israeli Gilad Shalit and British Alan Johnston pledge support to al Qaeda.
That would explain why it has been so hard to find these victims and why negotiations for their release have been so arduous.

The times they are a changing.



Clinton Speaks His Mind
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes former presidents say the darndest things.

Get this:
Former President Bill Clinton recently said that a peace treaty between Israel and Syria could be concluded in 35 minutes.
He is correct.
But only if Israel agrees to all Syria's demands.

What was he thinking when he made this ridiculous and inflammatory statement?
This former president of the United States knows that what Syria wants is no where close to what Israel is willing to give. That has not changed since he ran the White House.
And he also knows that for all practical purposes Syria has proven to be incapable and unwilling to live up to their word following small treatises that they have entered into.
How can Clinton believe that Syria will abide by the significant treaty it would be signing with Israel?

Sometimes, I wish we had an amendment stipulating that once presidents become ex-presidents they are barred from speaking about politics.
It seems that Bill Clinton has not learned anything from his illustrious predecessor Jimmy Carter.



Operation Cover Up
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 20, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Operation Cover Up has begun in Iran.

Iran's Deputy Police Commander described it this way:
"The police will operate against women who dress like models in town. Women that are arrested will be taken to four centers, where they will receive guidance and advice. They will commit in writing not to dress in violation of the dress code again, and they will be released only after their families come to pick them up and bring them proper attire."

It's not only women.
Men are also to be arrested if they violate the dress code. Men may not wear shorts or t-shirts with "harmful slogans" and necklaces with "certain ornamentation" will not be permitted.

Is it hard to dictate these behaviors and police these activities?
Not when you have the very highly motivated and active "modesty police" that Iran has.
Not when the "modesty police" has government and political backing.

The younger generation will try to push the limits, that's what young people do.
They will suffer the consequences.
In Iran, improper behavior is not tolerated.



Barghouti Is No Humanitarian
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Marwan Barghouti is the leader of the Al Aqsa Brigade.
Marwan Barghouti sits in an Israeli prison convicted of having a hand in the planning and implementation of numerous terrorist attacks.
Marwan Barghouti is the most popular man amongst all Palestinians.

Yesterday Marwan Barghouti called for the immediate release of BBC journalist Alan Johnston.
"From my cell, and in the name of 10,000 prisoners in the occupation jails, I appeal and call immediately for the release of journalist Alan Johnston, the friend of the Palestinian people."

Barghouti is not only popular, Barghouti is smart.
He has no gripe with the media, he is a master media manipulator.
He knows that taking a BBC journalist will only backfire against the cause and that is precisely and the only reason why he is appealing to Johnston's captors.

Barghouti is no humanitarian.



The Dutch Get It
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 18, 2007

I"ve Been Thinking:

The Dutch get it.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader and Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority will not be granted a visa to enter the Netherlands in May.
Hannniyeh was hoping to attend a conference of Palestinians scheuled to be held in Rotterdam on May 5th.

Dutch officials said:
"He will not be granted a visa, should he request one officially."
"Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the European Union."
They said:
"It is consistent not only to avoid contact with Hamas ministers but also not to let them come to the Netherlands or anywhere else in Europe and spread the message of Hamas."

This move by the Dutch is very important.
Hamas is determined to gain credibility around the world and especially within Western Europe.
This bold proactive move by the Netherlands is a reminder to every country that there is pre-established policy regarding Hamas and that there are real and sound resons for following this policy.

Bravo. Well done.



Terror and Allah
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Political terror is being nudged out by theological terror.

The Palestinian Jihad and Tawheed Brigade is the group that has claimed responsibility for the execution of BBC journalist Alan Johnston.
What exactly does the name of this terrorist organization mean?
Why would an organization choose this specific name?

Jihad is pretty much known to everyone - it means Holy War.
Tawheed is one of the most important theological concepts in Islam.
Tawheed is best explained as Islamic monotheism.
Tawheed is the belief in the unity of Allah.
Tawheed means that everything originates with Allah, the Creator.

This group also professes allegiance to al Qaeda.
Their announcement of Alan Johnston's execution was a vicious attack against not only this innocent journalist but against Palestinian leadership, the world press, England and the West.
Israel, by the way, is never mentioned by name and referred to only as "the oppressor" and "the occupier."

Hate - especially hatred fueled by religious fervor - has no bounds.



More Money For Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Minister of Finance, Salam Fayyad, just returned from a trip to Europe.
It was a very successful trip.

The Palestinian asked the European Union for 1.3 billion euros in order to avert a "humanitarian crisis" in 2007 - that is over 2 billion US dollars.
This past year the EU gave the Palestinians 700 million euros.
The US Congress has just approved sending $59 million to the Palestinians.

Add it up.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that the PA received 1.2 billion dollars in aid last year. That would make the Palestinians the largest per capita recipients of foreign aid in the world. $300 per person.
This year that total sum in aid will double.

The situation in the Palestinian Authority is certainly dire.
But the donors are not building jobs or industry or infrastructure.
The donors are just giving away money, more money and even more money.
Until Palestinians take pride in themselves and are able to earn their livelihoods they will continue to murder themselves, terrorize Israelis and kidnap journalists.

Sometimes, money just isn't enough.



Iran Threatens Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes the most pedantic people can surprise you with their remarkable insights.

Take, for example, Avigdor Lieberman.
Lieberman is the Israeli Minister for Strategic and Regional Affairs.
Leiberman sits in the government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert representing the extreme right wing of Israel.

Lieberman is charged with the task of overseeing and preparing for any and all scenarios regarding the threats from Iran.
Lieberman recently asserted that the Arab neighbors of Iran have much more to fear from Iran than Israel has to fear from Iran.

How on target.
When nuclear Iran struts its stuff in the general region, the Arab world will be powerless.
When nuclear Iran struts its stuff against Israel, Israel will retaliate and Iran will be faced with a true test of power and capability.



Negotiations With Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Abe Soliman, a very successful American businessman of Syrian extraction, visited Israel recently.
Abe Soliman's real first name is Ibrahim.

He was there to continue his mission as back door negotiator brokering a deal between Israel and Syria.
These backdoor discussions have been going on for some time and have taken place in Europe, the United States and even in Israel.
On this most recent visit to Israel the arrival of Abe Soliman was made public, even heralded. He briefed Knesset committees and even held a press conference.

Soliman delivered an important morsel of information:
This past summer Syria was placed under tremendous pressure by both Hezbollah and Iran to join the fight and go to war with Israel.

Once again, when Syria has the will, Syria finds the way.



Crossing From Syria to Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The US Army recently reported a significant drop in the number of infiltrating terrorists, those crossing from Syria into Iraq.

The new information came from US Major General Walter Gaskin.
Gaskin asserts that the reason for the decrease is that al Qaeda is more independent, that al Qaeda no longer needs to depend on foreign weapons and fighters and support.
Gaskin is probably correct.

But he is missing the subtext.
In this case, the subtext is more important than the text.

What does this really mean?
It means that after the flurry of congressional visits and senatorial visits Assad is sending a message to the United States.
Assad is telling us that Syria is in charge and Syria can deliver in the region.

It means that from the beginning Syria was capable of controlling the flow of terrorists into Iraq.

It means that Syria can exert micro and macro power over their border and over their nation - including foreign terrorists imported to destabilize Iraq.

It means that when Syria, aka Assad, has the will he has the way.



For Islam: Their Biggest Disaster
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

What is the biggest disaster to have been inflicted on Muslims?
According to Sheik Raed Salah, head of the Islamic Movement in Northern Israel:
"The biggest disaster ever inflicted on the Muslim nation is the occupation of Jerusalem and the Al Aksa Mosque."

Understanding this sentiment is to understand the Middle East.
With these few words Sheik Raed Salah precisely encapsulates the very raison d'etre of the Muslim world today.

The vanguard of the entire movement against the West and against Israel balances on the circumstance that places the holy site where Solomon's Temple once stood in the hands of Jews.
Sheik Raed Salah and sheiks around the world use this very issue to stoke the flames of Muslim discontent.

Here is the simple reality: Under Israel's control and because Israel is a democracy all religions have access to religious sites in Israel.
If anything Jews are upset because in truth they cannot ascend the mountain where Solomon and Herod's Temples stood.
They cannot and do not ascend out of respect for Muslims.
Only a special Israeli Supreme Court hearing permits Jews to climb the mount in the City on the Mountain.



New Terror Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi terrorists have begun utilizing an entirely new method of attack.

Iraqi terrorists are packing trucks filled with poison gas and exploding them.
The gas of choice is chlorine - it is very common and easily procurable.
The dangers of the truck bomb have now increased exponentially.

This dangerous, deadly gas has the ability to kill or injure even more innocent victims and bystanders than previous truck bombs.
This dangerous, deadly gas casts a wider net than previous bombs.
This dangerous, deadly gas, when exploded, has a larger wake than a simple bomb explosion.

For the Iraqi terrorist, it could not be simpler.
The gas is easily and inexpensively obtainable.
Delivery trucks are a common sight moving around the country.

These new bombs are on our horizon as part of the terrorist cache of weapons.
We must learn the lessons of these explosive gas truck bombs.
We must learn how to defend ourselves.
Our home front depends on it.



US Was to Strike Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was supposed to be the commencement of the United States attack against Iran - Codename: "Bite."
"Bite" was to be a 12 hour strike against Iran's nuclear development program.

Obviously, it did not happen.
There are several reasons why the strike was postponed.
One reason could have been that Rush Limbaugh announced it on his radio show.
The most probable and important reason is that the Russians came out and said point blank that they believe the Iranian air defense system could repel an attack from the United States.

Russia commander of air defense, General Yuri Solovyov, has given us some very important information. He said that the Iranians own Russia's most up-to-date anti-air systems and they also have some French systems. He said that he believes that if Iran uses their systems well they can not only defend themselves from a US Attack but they can also deliver a significant blow to the US Air Force.

That does not mean that the United States would lose.
It means that the US might take some serious losses while delivering their attack.

It seems that the plan is now on hold.
The United States needs to better assess the Iranian anti-air program.



Is It Worth It?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The British sailors are free and we are all grateful.
But ... Was it worth the price? Iran claims that they received a written apology from England. An Iranian diplomat in Iraq was released. The Iranians are getting access to prisoners in Iraq.

And ... Look at what else is happening: On Thursday the Taliban in Afghanistan claimed to have kidnapped 2 French nationals. Several weeks ago the Italians exchanged Taliban prisoners for a kidnapped journalist. The British Consul General in Jerusalem met with Haniyeh, the Hamas Prime Minister, in order to secure the release of a kidnapped BBC journalist - action which until now has been antithetical to British foreign policy.

Therefore ... We must ask ourselves some serious questions:
*** Should terrorists and countries that kidnap "be rewarded" for their actions?
*** Does capitulating to terrorists and kidnappers open the flood gates to abductions throughout the world?
*** Are we empowering terrorists and countries that kidnap by showing them that they really do have a powerful political tool at their disposal, a tool that we in the West will never use?
*** Is there any adequate defense against these kidnappings?
*** What can be done to protect the Western world from these heinous unconscionable acts?



Jordan Goes Nuclear
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Big news from Jordan.
The Jordanians have announced that they will have completed a nuclear power plant by the year 2015.
2015 is just seven and a half years away.
That is nor far away at all.

Jordan is claiming that they will use their nuclear power only for electricity and desalination - but once you have the technology, the switch to weaponry is mere child's play.

Egypt announced only two months ago that they are resuming their nuclear development.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are rumored to be surreptitiously investigating nuclear development.

It is official.
The race for nuclear plants, energy and weapons is on in the Middle East.



Summer--- Another War?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli intelligence has insight into the activities of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.
We should pay attention to Israel's findings.

We should pay attention:
Israel might know something that we don't.

Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are preparing for war this summer.
According to the head of Israel's Military Intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin, they are expecting that the United States will invade Iran.
"Their preparation is defensive ahead of war ... They fear a war initiated by the Americans because they understand that there might be an attack against Iran over summer, but not by Israel."

Interestingly neither Iran nor Syria nor Hezbollah see Israel as going to war.
Rather, they are expecting a three pronged attack.
Never-the-less, Israel has begun to ready itself against the backlash of such attacks.

Perceptions are more important than realities in that part of the world.



To Syria ?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On the day before United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Damascus, three bigwig guests paid surprise visits to the palace of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The president saw them all.

The three visitors were also members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The three visitors were all Republican Congressmen.
Bigwig # 1: Virginia Republican Frank Wolf.
Bigwig # 2: Pennsylvania Republican Joe Pitts.
Bigwig # 3: Alabama Republican Robert Aderholt.

What were they doing there?
They said they took their lead from Ronald Reagan when he went and spoke to the Soviets.

This is what the congressmen say they spoke about:
Item # 1: Ending support for Hezbollah and Hamas
Item # 2: Recognizing Israel's right to exist
Item # 3: Stopping Syrian interference in Lebanon
Item # 4: Stopping the flow of fighters into Iraq

As for Assad's response - he's not saying.



Iran Holds the Cards
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

We are playing into Iranian hands - again - and Iran holds all the cards.
The capturing of the 15 British sailors was Iran's latest move.

The only move left to the West is to negotiate and it is a very poor move.
It is unlikely that even negotiating will provide the West with the results necessary to end this situation.
Iran knows what it wants and is willing to hold out until it happens.
Iran wants an apology, a public apology.

This is all a game of pride for Iran.
Iran wants it made clear that it was not an accidental crossing of the territorial waters but a deliberate crossing.
Iran wants it made clear that they are correct in their defense of Iranian and Muslim honor.

That is why the broadcast of the British captives was deliberately aired on Iranian Arabic TV al Alam and not on the larger Iranian Parsi station. Most Iranians speak Parsi, not Arabic but the rest of the Islamic world only understands Arabic.

This message was for external consumption.
This message was for the entire world, but especially for the Muslim world.
This message made it clear that Iran will champion the Islamic principles of honor against any and all non-believers, including the US and UK and Iran will win.
The honor of Islam is at stake.



Pelosi's Visit To Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 31, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Nancy Pelosi the new Democratic Speaker of the House arrived in Israel on Friday.
This is Pelosi's second fact finding trip since assuming her new, high profile, position.
Part of Pelosi's visit to the Middle East includes a visit to Syria.


Why is Pelosi bothering with these visits?
She is sending a message.
She is saying that the White House is not the only force to be reckoned with when it comes to United States foreign policy.

Someone on this trip is of particular interest to me.
His name is Keith Ellison.
He is the new congressman from the 5th district in Minnesota, he ran and won as the candidate of the Democratic Farmer Labor Party.
He is the first Muslim to be elected to congress.
He is a convert to Islam.

Ellison promised to visit the Middle East after his election.
These trips can have a very significant impact on a politician.
In 1998 Governor George Bush made his trip to Israel and it transformed him as a person and as a leader.
I am curious to see the impact of this trip on Ellison.



Israelis Save Palestinian Baby
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 30, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Humanitarian Aid Trumps Political Agenda.
It probably won't get much play in mainstream news but it should.

For the very first time since 2000 an Israeli ambulance crossed over an army checkpoint entering the Palestinian region to save the life of a 6 month old baby.
This is a watershed event.

The baby is still alive and recovering in Tel HaShomer, an Israeli hospital - two other infants from the same child care facility are dead.
Palestinian police made certain that the Israeli bulletproof ambulance was not blocked as the medical team sped the child and his parents from a Palestinian hospital in Ramallah to the Israeli hospital.

Earlier this week a dirt wall sewage pool broke in Gaza. 3000 people were quickly evacuated, dozens more swam for their lives swimming in sewage, many died in the muck. Palestinians refused to ask for Israeli help. Finally, Israel's defense minister just sent his people in to help - to shore up the walls and clean up the remains.

This is the way it should be.
Humanitarian issues should be separated from political issues.
Humanitarian issues are probably the building blocks of political cooperation.



Lebanon is Unstable
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is becoming more and more unstable.
So says Israel's Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi.

Ashkenazi has just made his assessment of recent, essential developments in the Middle East, factors that he feels have far reaching and important ramifications for Israel and for the region.

Ashkenazi asserts that Hezbollah is growing stronger and the more strength Hezbollah gains the larger the threat it poses to the established Lebanese government.

I agree.
The situation in Lebanon might yet deteriorate into civil war.
There are many factors at work, but the continued growth of Hezbollah is worrisome.
Any shift in the Lebanese political hierarchy could alter the status quo in the region and thrust Israel into danger.
It is essential to scrupulously monitor goings-on in Lebanon.



Listen to Hamas, Please
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

"The prophetic foundation is the message of the prophet Muhammad, that Islam will enter every house and will spread over the entire world."
That is the quote of the day from Mahmoud al Zahar, former foreign minister of the Hamas-led Palestinian government.

In conclusion: "All of Palestine. This is the final and strategic solution for us."

Please, please, do not be deceived.
Hamas has made it clear - they want to destroy Israel.
Hamas has made it clear - everyone in the world should become a Muslim.
It is all in the Hamas charter.

At a memorial for Sheik Ahmad Yassin "the Sheik in the wheelchair" as he is known in America, al Zahar again clearly articulated the two-pronged Hamas objective.

Hamas understands what Hamas want.
Why are we incapable of hearing their loud and clear message?



Premature Euphoria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The current euphoria over this newest, latest, possible, potential for peace between Palestinians and Israelis is a little premature.
There are major obstacles to overcome before the two clasp hands in a classic gesture of peace and co-existence.

The Arab League wants the Saudi proposal swallowed hook, line and sinker by Israel.
Yes, they are willing to allow certain small modifications and tinkering, but they want their plan to be the blue print for peace.
And that is not what diplomacy is all about.

Israel, surprisingly, is willing to negotiate.
But Israel is willing to negotiate only if the international terms are firmly set as the prerequisite for negotiations.

Palestinians responded to a recent poll with only 48% of the 1270 respondents saying that they wanted their new unity government to adhere to international standards and get the embargo against them lifted.
That means that roughly the same amount of Palestinians who accepted the idea rejected the idea.

How do you move ahead in a situation like this?
You simply stay the course.



Rumors Can Be Real
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Here is the rumor:
Prince Bandor, the National Security Advisor of Saudi Arabia, met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to talk about the Saudi Peace Initiative.

Here is the source:
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz and a columnist from The New York Times assert that the rumor is accurate and correct.

Here is the clincher:
The Prime Minister's office refuses to comment.

Here is the background:
Saudi Arabia has no diplomatic relations with Israel.
Despite that, the idea is that the Saudi proposal should serve as the foundation for normalization of relations between Israel and the rest of the Arab world - in exchange for creating a Palestinian state.

Here is the reality:
There is no doubt in my mind that Olmert is entertaining this proposal.
The only question is whether the Arab world has the gonads to recognize Israel.
About that, I am not so certain.



Song To A Suicide Bomber
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Maybe you saw it on YouTube.

A little girl singing sweetly to her mother - a suicide bomber.
The words and music were written by someone else but the child is definitely Duha, the daughter of Re'em Riyashi who blew herself up in 2004.

"Mommy what are you carrying in your arms instead of me?
A toy or a present for me? Mommy Re'em! Why did you put your veil on?
Instead of me you carried a bomb.
May your steps be blessed ... send greetings to Mohammed ..."
"I am following in her steps." (repeated 3 times)

By now it is commonplace to hear Muslim mothers say that they hope their children will one day become suicide bombers, martyrs, shahid.
In this new twist we have a daughter hoping to grow up and be like her mother.

Hamas TV in the Palestinian Authority airs this video regularly.
These elected leaders see the role of suicide bomber as a goal for their children.
Theatre of the absurd, Palestinian-style.



Israel Won't Weaken Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

It is no secret.
The president of Syria, the eye doctor turned ruler, the son who stepped into a position of power only after his older brother was killed, is barely, precariously, hanging on.

Bashar Assad is doing a balancing act.
Bashar Assad is a weak ruler.
Bashar Assad is seen by his colleagues in the region as an impotent ruler.

So why is he still ruling?
Why has Bashar Assad not been ousted?

Israel and France just concluded a discussion about Assad.
The conversation was leaked to the British Arabic paper Al Hayat.
And what was their conclusion?
They decided to leave the poor beleaguered guy alone.
They concluded that Assad was weak, so why weaken him more?

A more stable Syria is in the best interests of the region and Israel has no intention of challenging Syria now.
Who knows - the unknown alternative could be far, far worse.
Machiavelli put it best: "the enemy you know is better than the enemy you don't."



Ghadaffi Expels Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Get this.
This is true, deep insight into the Arab mind and decision making process.
Moammar Ghadaffi of Libya is threatening to expel Palestinians.

Why?
Because of the Saudi Plan that might bring about new negotiations with Israel and might require Palestinian to give up the idea of their right to return.
In protest, Ghadaffi is going to deport thousands of Palestinians from Libya.
Bottom line:
Ghadaffi does not want the Palestinians to remain in Libya permanently.

After the Oslo Accords were signed Libya deported 10's of thousands of Palestinians - also in protest. Most of them were stuck in camps between Libya and Egypt, the rest were marooned on ships for weeks outside of Lebanon and Syria. No one wanted them.
Once again the Palestinians are pawns in a much bigger game.

What does that teach us?
The Arab world has very little interest in settling the "Palestinian problem" as it is called.
So much for Arab unity.



Where Disputes Are Settled With Guns
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Some call it Gaza, I prefer to think of it as the "Wild West" of the Middle East.
It is the place where disputes are still settled with guns.

Yesterday John Ging director of UNRWA, the UN Relief and Works Agency, was nearly kidnapped in Gaza.
It was his alert driver - not the bullet proof car - that saved his life as terrorists jumped out of a white Subaru and started shooting at the clearly identifiable UN car. 11 bullets pierced but did not penetrate Ging's vehicle as his driver sped to safety.
Earlier in the week Alan Johnson, a BBC reporter, was kidnapped and is still captive.
Dozens of kidnappings are perpetrated in Gaza, mostly in exchange for small favors.

Here's the irony:
UNRWA is there to help the Palestinians. The United Nations is certainly not anti-Palestinian, actually the UN is pretty pro.
The Western press is there provide a pulpit for the Palestinians. The BBC certainly could never be considered anti-Palestinian, they are also pretty pro.

The Palestinians are biting the hands that feed them.
What they are doing is wrong - and it is also a shame.



He is Spilling His Guts
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 16, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

His real name is Khaled Sheik Mohammed.
In intelligence circles he is known simply as KSM.
He is in Guantanamo, Cuba and according to the transcript of his tribunal, he is spilling his guts.

KSM was the al Qaeda master planner responsible for 9-11. Until his capture in March 2003 he was the most significant of all the al Qaeda planners and activators.
According to the transcript, this is how KSM describes Osama bin Laden: "[C]onsider George Washington as hero. Muslims many of them are considering Osama bin Laden. He is doing same thing. He is just fighting. He needs his independence."

KSM was responsible for at least 30 terrorist attacks including the brutal decapitation of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.
According to the transcript, this is how KSM describes the decapitation:
"I decapitated with my blessed right hand the head of the American Jew, Daniel Pearl, in the city of Karachi, Pakistan."

His tone is arrogant and haughty, but he has one element of remorse.
KSM is sorry for the death of the children, that means he has a sense of morality. But the murder of thousands of innocent adults does not fall under the category of "wrong" for KSM.
KSM believes that those murders are justified by the Koran.



Al Qaeda Lashes At Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri publicly lashed out at Hamas the other day.

On an audio tape that aired on al Jazeera TV al Qaeda's second-in-command eulogized Hamas.
Zawahiri said that Hamas had betrayed the cause of Jihad by joining in a unity government that will recognize Israel.

The Hamas response came in the form of a prepared statement.
The official Hamas response reads: "We are a movement of Jihad and of resistance and will continue to be so as long as a single centimeter of the land of Palestine is under occupation."

Hamas did not say that they were not yet in a unity government.
Hamas did not say that the unity government has not officially recognized Israel.

More interesting than what Hamas did say is what Hamas did not say.



Israel Sells Apples To Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

In the Middle East the middle man plays a very crucial role.
Middle East arch enemies Syria and Israel have begun doing business together.

What are they buying and selling? Apples.
How many apples? Tons.
How are they doing it? Through middlemen.
Who are the middlemen? The Druze of the Golan Heights.

Syria is buying apples from Druze who live in the Golan Heights. Actually, most Druze have relatives living in Syria and they have never cut off relations. The Golan and Syria share a border, along that border is a hill that has become a "calling center" - when you want someone on the other side, you call over to them. Now the apple buyers and sellers are meeting at the border and conducting their business.

The question is, how do the Syrians pay for the produce?
Israel has suggested that they pay with much-needed water.
But Syria and Israel don't speak so how have the Israelis made their suggestion known to the Syrians?
The Druze middlemen are passing it along.

It sounds comical, even simplistic, but this is a critical first step in the thawing of relations between enemies.
"A" my name is Anwar and I sell apples.



Say No to Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Do not allow Ahmadinejad to enter the United States.
Do not grant Ahmadinejad the State Department-issued visa he requires.
Do not let Ahmadinejad perpetrate another mockery at our expense.

Ahmadinejad has gone on Iranian national TV to announce that he is ready to present his case for peaceful nuclear development. He is ready to present his case before the United Nations Security Council. He wants to present his case as a part of the greater debate at the United Nations surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue.

It is a brilliant maneuver.
Ahmadinejad will stand tall, answer questions and by his presence alone probably even sway those countries still unconvinced of the evil of Iran's intentions to his side.

Afterwards, of course, Iran will continue to do whatever they want.
Afterwards, Ahmadinejad and the Iranians will say one thing and do another, precisely as they have been doing all along.
Afterwards, nothing will have changed for Iran.

Right now, the only proper response to Ahmadinejad and the government of Iran is: too little, too late - commitments to peace come with actions, not words.



Moral Education From Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas might operate out of the Palestinian Authority, but directions come from the government in exile in Damascus, Syria.
Hamas is run by Haled Mashal.

Haled Mashal secures a lot of funding for Hamas from Iran.
Haled Mahsal visits Iran and the Iranians promise more and more money.
On his last visit, however, along with the money the Iranians give Mashal a moral education.
Mashal provided the Iranians an update of the new Palestinian unity government and the Iranians gave Mashal some friendly advice.

The Iranians told Mashal to continue "resisting the Zionists."
The Iranians told Mashal to "stop the infighting between the Palestinians."

Can Mashal do it?
Will Mashal do it?
Nothing comes without strings - even in the world of the terrorist.



Defection or Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Maybe he wasn't kidnapped.
Perhaps he defected.
The intrigue surrounding Ali Reza Azkari, the high level Iranian diplomat who disappeared on February 7th while in Istanbul, continues.

No matter how he got there, the presence of Azkari, the man who knows so much about Iran, about al Qaeda, about the world of terror, is a tremendous "intelligence asset" for both the United States and Israel.
No matter how he got there, getting him there required a coordinated effort by the United States CIA and State Department and Israel.

If Azkari defected - they will not have to break him to get information and intel.
If Azkari defected - the knowledge and understanding of the inner workings of Iran that he will convey will be even more significant.
But ...
If Azkari defected - we must determine that he is delivering honest information and is not a plant, deliberately disseminating disinformation in order to send the United States and Israel down the road of poor decision making.

In order to ascertain Azkari's veracity debriefings must be done in Parsi, the native language of Iran.
In order to ascertain Azkari's veracity debriefing must be done by people who truly understand nuance.



More Shiite-Sunni Killing
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sunni Shiite tensions in Iraq are hitting a new high.
Reprisals are rocketing back and forth.

Suicide bombers hit Shiite pilgrims again and then again in Hilla.
A web broadcast is circulating displaying the gruesome, savage, execution of 18 kneeling, praying, blindfolded, young Shiite men - as they are shot in the head by Sunnis and fall forward onto the ground.
Who is responsible for the executions?
Undoubtedly, al Qaeda.

Sunni al Qaeda is out to publicly humiliate Shiite defense forces and the Mahdi army.
Al Qaeda and the Sunnis are saying that they will continue to attack the majority Iraqi Shiite government.
One side attacks, the other retaliates. The other attacks and there is more retaliation.

The only way to solve the internal killing is to eliminate the Iraqi national army and establish local police forces responsible for keeping local order exclusively.
This vicious cycle of death will not stop on its own.



Iran's Newest Bank Note
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has taken it up a notch in internal propaganda.
As is, the vast majority of Iran is in favor of nuclear development and now the Iranian government is making clear to the entire population that nuclear is the way to go.

The Iranians are issuing a new bank note - 50,000 Rials.
This will be the largest monetary note in Iran.
Up until now 20,000 was the highest note Iran had.

What's the connection between a new bank note and nuclear activity?
This note will have the nuclear symbol on it.
This note will have a quote from Mohammed that goes: "If the science exists in this constellation, men from Persia will reach it."
On the other side of this note there will be a picture of the founder of the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeni
Interestingly, the English words and numerals 50000 RIALS FIFTY THOUSAND also appears on the bottom frame of this note.

It is ironic.
Despite the enormous tension between the United States and Iran, by law Iranian money must have American markings on it so that it is recognized world over.



Iranian Leader Visits Saudia Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is visiting Saudi Arabia today.
Ahmadinejad visiting Saudi Arabia is about as strange as an official representative of the United States on an official visit to Iran.

There is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Sunnis and Iran is the leader of the Shiites. They are arch enemies, they hate one another.
The meeting took months to coordinate. So why are they meeting?

There are 3 reasons:
# 1: The violence in Iraq is taking a toll on both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
# 2: Pressure from the United States about the Iranian nuclear program is forcing Iran to search for mediators and Saudi Arabia is the perfect mediator.
# 3: Iran needs to show interest in the greater goal of Muslim unity, not just the Shiite agenda and reaching out to Saudi Arabia is the perfect way to show interest.

Fences will not be mended, but this is certainly a scenario worth watching.



Iran and the US United?
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The word is that Iran might reach out to the United States for help.

Iran needs help fighting al Qaeda.
It sounds ridiculous - until you think about it and then it makes perfect sense.
Al Qaeda is a Sunni organization and al Qaeda sees Iran as a pillar of Shiite national strength.
Actually, in the eyes of al Qaeda, Iran is probably worse than the United States.

It would be the manifestation of Machiavelli's brilliantly insight "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
Two sworn enemies - Iran and the United States - might actually unite to fight a common enemy - al Qaeda.

The operative word here, however, is "might."
Iran might reach out to the United States.
Iran and the United States might unite against al Qaeda.
Just don't anybody hold their breath.



Iran's Supreme Leader Rules
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader in Iran is the Ayatollah Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad is simply a puppet, remember that always.

Ahmadinejad has assumed a belligerent stance against the West and against the United States regarding his country's nuclear program.
But now we are hearing other - and different voices.

Ali Larijani, chief nuclear negotiator for Iran, is assuming a more conciliatory stance.
Last week even the Supreme Leader made comments indicating that he is expecting that the entire nuke situation "will be resolved peacefully."
And Iranian reformers and arch conservatives have begun to question Ahmadinejad's position and the significant blow he received in the local elections.

The truth is these popular voices and even Ahmadinejad's voice do not matter.
In Iran only the views of the Council count, particularly the views of the Supreme Leader.
Nothing else matters at all.



Egypt and Her Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

For the past few months Egypt has been advancing a plan to go nuclear.
Now Egypt has now decided to drop the plan.

Why the change?
First, because the United States has brought an enormous amount of pressure on Egypt not to go nuclear.
Second, because the cost of starting a nuclear program is significantly greater than Egypt had anticipated.

This is very good news for the West, it means that Egypt will be very upset when Iran becomes nuclear ready.
Speaking of Iran, the Arab League recently passed a resolution underscoring that all of members have the right to develop nuclear energy.

So what is Egypt to do?
Now Egypt will improve their old, small, experimental nuclear reactor.
Now Egypt will pro-actively step forward to help stop Iran from becoming a nuclear powerhouse.



Jordan Says: Tow The Line
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The King of Jordan was interviewed on Israel's news station Channel 2.
His comments were forthright, analytical and surprising.

"There's international common ground - not just Western but also Arab and to an extent Muslim - that believe that there have to be certain criteria that the new government has to accept if we're going to move the process forward."

"You have a president, Mahmoud Abbas, who is your negotiator, who ... is prepared to be able to move the peace process forward, and a government that's going to be formed that will have to adhere to the Quartet conditions."

He said that the Arab Quartet - Jordan, Egpyt, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates - all agree that the Palestinians must accept the Quartet's three guidelines: accept Israel, firght terror and accept preexisting conditions.

Abdullah King of Jordan, a legitimate, recognized and respected leader within the Arab world is siding with the West over another Arab country.
That doesn't happen very often.

If only ... if only a respected Arab leader would stand up and be this critical of Iran.



Rapes in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Horrible accusations of rape are flying around Iraq, fanning the flames of an already explosive environment.

Iraq's Shiite-dominated police have been accused of perpetrating several rapes, including the rape of a 50 year old women and her two daughters.
The Sunni population is in an uproar.
Sources say that hundreds of Sunnis have volunteered as suicide bombers expressly to wreak havoc and revenge on the Shiites.

The hatred between the Shiites and Sunnis of Iraq continues to escalate.
Unless and until this visceral hatred is curbed the chance of establishing a central government is minimal.
Unless and until this visceral hatred is curbed Iraq will never be transformed into a state that respects law and maintains order.



Hamas Breaks Ceasefire
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 22, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

An official statement made by Hamas spokesman Abu Obaida said that "the truce with the Israeli occupation is no longer valid."
Hamas has, officially, called off their ceasefire against Israel.

The question begs asking? Did Hamas ever really enforce their ceasefire against Israel?
Well, for the most part, Hamas has reigned in terror - and the horrific act of terror which took place on June 25th when a Hamas attack force struck an Israeli tank, killed 2 soldiers, wounded a 3rd and kidnapped the 4th, Gilad Shalit, who is still in the hands of Hamas and whom they refuse to release has not been repeated.
But in the true sense, it has never really been a ceasefire.

Hamas is sworn to the destruction of Israel and the cessation of fire they had with Israel was really a Hudna.
The literal English translation of Hudna is ceasefire, but Hudna is more a concept than a word.
A Hudna allows for a Muslim to enter into a truce with his arch enemy in order to regroup, rearm and rebuild. The truce may be broken when it meets the needs of the Muslim. It can last for a maximum period of 10 years.

This ceasefire/Hudna didn't make it very long.



Fireworks Btw Abass and Olmert
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The tri-party summit between Rice, Olmert and Abbas was much more exciting than we were led to believe.
Fireworks were sparking behind those closed doors.

Olmert to Abbas: "you cheated me" by coming into a unity government with Hamas that does not recognize Israel.
Abbas to Olmert: "you gave me nothing and didn't keep your word."
It was 45 minutes of yelling.

The polarization between the parties is dramatic, but when all was said and done, both sides agreed to keep the channels of communication open.
Their office spokespeople and aides have already continued the dialogue.

The United States and Israel are coming to grips with a new reality.
Abbas shattered any sense of trust by signing the Mecca Accord.
Abbas attempted to make Hamas more acceptable and his plan backfired.
Abbas is tarnished and he sits in a government that is antithetical to his promises to the US.

Sometimes the best laid plans go completely awry.



Syria & Iran Again
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just hosted a perfect guest. Bashar Assad of Syria made his 2nd trip to Iran since Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005. Last month Ahmadinejad visited Syria.

It is a short helicopter ride between countries and the two have much to discuss. Most importantly they need to figure out how to galvanize the rest of the Muslim world and how to move other Muslim countries into Iran & Syria's corner.

Right now a war is being waged for the hearts of Muslims across the globe.
On the one side are Iran and Syria working hard to create a situation where it is US VERSUS THEM, creating the impression that the United States is pitted against the entire Muslim world.

On the other side are the countries that totally reject Iran's role as a central leader in the Muslim world, not only the United States and allies but also Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Jordan and Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Syria needs Iran and Iran needs Syria.
And we need to isolate them both.



Presidential Candidates
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Two questions have been asked of me over and over as I travel the country speaking to groups and consulting with business leaders about the issues of terror and security:
Question # 1: Which candidate will best solve the problems of the Middle East
Question # 2: Which candidate is best for Israel

Answer # 1: I have not yet heard a clearly articulated policy about the Middle East from any potential candidate. When it comes to Iraq and Iran the would-be candidates have been taking an I-think- this-is-what-the people-want-to-hear stance, rather than a cold, calculated look at the entire Middle East picture.
The concept of "the law of foreseeable consequences" should not exist when talking about America's role in the Middle East, candidates should know and weigh all policy possibilities and all ramifications not just those that are easy to spin and to sell.

Answer # 2: No candidate, no matter which party, can run for president in 2008 without being pro-Israel.

The questions will continue. The answers will come.



PA Does Spin
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Azzam al Aham is a name to remember, he is a man to be reckoned with.
Azzam al Aham is an advisor and aide to Abbas, he is frequently the Palestinian point man between Abbas and the US and even Abbas and Israel.

At a press conference in Ramallah yesterday this influential man made very clear how great the division is between the West and the new Palestinian Authority.
He said, "The {Mecca} agreement meets the conditions of the Quartet 100%." He said the Palestinians will contact the Americans and explain each point.

The agreement is only 9 sentences. It is too short to be misunderstood. On all three of the Quartet's requirements it falls short.
The agreement does not recognize Israel.
The agreement does not say that the new government will condemn and fight terror.
The one ray of hope is that it does say that the new government will honor previous international agreements, but the essence of this requirement was to honor the previous agreements signed with Israel.
The agreement does not even mention Israel.



New Plane Defense
By Micah Halpern

February 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

As of May, all pilots flying over Israeli air space will carry a new identification system called "Code Positive."
"Code Positive" identifies the pilots themselves, not the planes.

No airplane will be allowed to approach Israeli airspace if the pilot is not carrying this new form of identification.
If a plane should enter Israeli airspace without the proper ID, even by accident, it will be shot down or escorted out.
"Code Positive ID" is non transferable, it cannot be used by someone in duress and it will show if an identified pilot is or is not in control of the aircraft.

The skies over Tel Aviv are especially worrisome for authorities. Tel Aviv is located on the Mediterranean Sea coast and because of the number of skyscrapers Israel's most modern city could easily be a target. Planes hijacked from nearby Ben Gurion airport would be in the heart of Tel Aviv in just moments.

This new ID was developed after 9-11. The Israeli defense establishment wants to make certain that a 9-11 type scenario does not threaten their skies.



Bashing Israel Week
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 13, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

University campuses in the United States and Canada have joined together in a week-long event called Israel Apartheid Week.

Israel Apartheid Week is a seven day festival centered on Israel bashing.
The goal of the organizers is two-fold:
to instill anti-Israel sentiment in the minds and hearts of university students
to invest time and energy proving that the United States policy of befriending and supporting Israel is a mistake

Rebutting anti-Israel myths on university campuses is an on-going, not merely a week-long, process. This year, however, the task has become even more difficult because support for the anti-Israel/United States movement has been bolstered by prominent, public enemies of truth. Most prominent are former US president Jimmy Carter and the authors of the Baker Report.

The Baker Report actually makes the claim that there is a direct correlation between Israel and the Palestinians and the war with Iraq. The Carter book suggests, even through its title, that there is a fundamental injustice in Israel.

These are tough days for the United States and Israel in university corridors.
The future leaders of our country are being put to the test on their own campuses.



Seizing Weapons in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Things are in full swing in Lebanon.
And that is good news.

The Lebanese army stopped a truck filled with weapons and ammo headed for Hezbollah.
The truck was stopped outside of Beirut, it was coming from the Beka Valley.

Now Hezbollah is demanding the return of the munitions.
Hezbollah says it is their right to have and use the seized weapons because they were to be used in freeing their land from the occupier, i.e. fighting against Israel.

This is not an isolated case.
The Lebanese have stopped and confiscated several arms shipments in the past few weeks.
The Lebanese are finally stepping up to the plate.
The Lebanese are finally fighting to save Lebanon.



Attack vs Invade
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 10, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates visited Spain on Thursday.
Gates said that the United States will not attack Iran.

The United States will not attack Iran.
What a strange choice of words. Attack.
I would have agreed with Gates had he used the word "invade" not "attack."
Now two things are abundantly clear:
A United States attack against Iran is not imminent
The United States has contingency plans that include various attack scenarios.

The only way to force Iran to act responsibly is to couple strong diplomacy by neutral countries and by countries that Iran sees as allies with the threat of a missile strike.
Iran knows that the threat of a missile strike hovers over them.
That is why on that same Thursday the Iranians publicized the successful testing of their new Russian TOR-M1 anti-missile system.

Once again, I have the feeling that the Iranians "get it" we're the ones who don't.



Letter Bombs in England
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Seven letter bombs in three weeks in the United Kingdom.
The most recent injured four people.

Technically, these are not bombs - they are pyrotechnic devices.
They are designed not to blow up but to spark and light up.

It can safely be assumed that the sender wants to scare people and not kill them. That being said, these letter bombs are probably not the work of al Qaeda.
The al Qaeda handbook/ CD set contains a section on letter bombs, and they are most definitely designed to kill.

Some other movement is out there trying to get our attention.
It is probably an animal rights group.



National ID - Yes or No?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There is a heated debate going on over the issue of a national, uniform, driver's license i.e., a National ID Card. Again.

The idea of a National ID has already passed in Congress but has not yet trickled down to individual States.
Implementing a National ID means creating a national databank.
Some people just do not want to be tracked nationally.
Some States are reluctant, some are downright recalcitrant.
New Hampshire and Maine, for example, view the whole thing as an impingement of personal freedom.

The citizens of many European, Asian and South American countries have been carrying National IDs for years, it is a way of life for them.
In today's post 9-11 climate anyone wandering around those countries without valid national identification automatically arouses suspicion.
In today's post 9-11 climate a National ID is essential.

We have to balance our need for national security against our desire for personal freedoms.
And despite the outcry, the vast majority of Americans would probably trade a little bit of freedom for a little more safety and security.



No Nukes For Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There was a huge debate in the Egyptian Parliament on nuclear weapons.

Representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood said the time has come for Egypt to build its own nuclear weapons.
Why? Because Israel has admitted to having nuclear weapons.
President Hosni Mubarak responded that, given the new facts on the ground, it might be time for Egypt to upgrade their defense systems, implying that nuclear weapons was taking it a step too far.

Here are the real facts on the ground in Egypt:
The Muslim Brotherhood has very little power to decide anything.
The Parliament has very little power to decide anything.
Mubarak has all the power and decides everything.

And Mubarak is far more afraid of Iran than of Israel.
And Mubarak knows that the Muslim Brotherhood gets support from Iran.
And Mubarak knows that is why they are pushing an anti-Israel line while Egypt's/Mubarak's real agenda is anti-Iran and anti-Iranian nukes.



Hezbollah PR Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 4, 2007

I've been Thinking:

For the past two weeks an ugly canard has spread through Lebanon that Israel has sent poison gas balloons to Lebanon.

The story has received press coverage.
The Hezbollah website in English and in Arabic carried the news.
Al Jazeera went with it on air and on their website.
I understand that.

What I do not understand is why the Associated Press ran with the story.
The gist of the story is that 8 people were hospitalized after 10 mysterious balloons flew over Southern Lebanon. They were "rushed to the hospital suffering from nausea and fatigue."
AP reported that "mysterious balloons drifting in from Israel to Lebanon are unnerving people, with some south Lebanon villagers reportedly feeling ill and authorities warning residents against touching them."

There is usually some truth in every fabrication. This is what happened: Ha Ir, a local newspaper owned by Haaretz, sent up green helium filled balloons with their named plastered across the balloons as a promotional gimmick.
The wind carried the balloons further than intended. Lofting these balloons might righteously raise the ire of ornithologists or environmentalists because they are a hazard to birds, but they are hardly poisonous to humans.

The Hezbollah PR machine goes at it again.



Israeli Film in Teheran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, I think there may be hope.

The occasion of the 25th Teheran International Film Festival, for example, gave me hope.
The Festival organizers invited the Israeli movie "More Than 1000 Words" which is an Israeli-German collaboration about the war in Lebanon to participate.
What a brilliant idea, I thought, how clever.
Let a discussion about art elevate the dialogue between Israel and Iran.

Until Friday.
On Friday, the German distributor of the film received a letter saying that they were no longer invited. Why? Because there were not enough movies in the category dealing with the war in Lebanon.

The Iranian news wire service had even more to say about the cancellation:
"the Zionist film" was uninvited because they did not want the Zionist point of view in "a film dealing with the conflict between the Zionist regime and the Palestinians."

Sometimes, hopes get dashed when reality sets in.



Beheading in Birmingham?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Police in Birmingham, England arrested 9 British Muslims suspected of plotting to kidnap and behead a fellow Brit, a Muslim, a soldier on leave from Iraq.

The arrests were made yesterday. I am certain that most main stream media will cover the story, it is banner headline news. But it is more than that, there are important issues and ramifications that this arrest brings to light.

The group wanted, in essence, to bring Baghdad to Birmingham.
The group wanted to decapitate someone just like they have been doing in Iraq.
The group intended to film the beheading and broadcast it on the internet.

Had the plan been successful, the potential fear factor would be incalculable.
This would have been even more gruesome than the subway bombing that rocked London last summer.
The idea behind this attack was to flaunt just how easy it is perpetrate the most heinous act of terror right under the noses of MI-5 and the police.
This time, the perpetrators were apprehended.
This time.



Another Proud Terrorist Family
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 31, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

A suicide bomb blows up in a cafe in the Israeli resort town of Eilat.
Three people are murdered and we all hang our heads in sorrow.

The family of the bomber is proud: "The whole family was very happy when it heard that Muhammad is the hero who carried out the attack," said Naim Saqsaq, the brother of the bomber. "We knew that he was waiting and praying for this moment. My brother said 'If only I could be a shahid, if only I could carry out an attack.' And here Allah gave him the privilege."
Muhammad's mother also had praise for the actions of her murdering son.

Hamas called the act of terror a legitimate attack.
Even Abbas, the moderate, referred to the murderous attack as "an operation" never referring to the bombing as a terror attack. His only condemnation was that the attack did not help the Palestinian cause.

The reason there have been fewer bombs in the recent year is because the terrorist's delivery systems and organizations have been disrupted and because the terrorists have been caught - not because the terrorists have turned a page.

Terrorists still hold dear the honor of killing themselves in an act of mass murder.



Iran Assassinated Egyptian Diplomat
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 29, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram reported yesterday that their ambassador to Iraq had been assassinated in June of 2005 by Iranian intelligence operatives.
Al Ahram reported that he was not a victim of "sectarian violence" as originally assumed.

The ambassador, Ihab a Sharif, had spent time in Iran as well as in Israel.
He was an exceptional "reader" of the regional situation.
June of 2005 was just one month into his new position.

It seems that the Iranians did not want this Egyptian influence in Iraq, they were afraid that a Sharif's astute and keen eye would pick up on happenings in their country that they did not want Egypt to know about. The Iranians did not want the Egyptians to stymie their activities.

An assassination in Iraq is no big deal and no one questioned the death report. Only now are the pieces of the puzzle falling into place.
The Iranians are far more organized and manipulative than we had ever imagined.
This is just one of many examples.



Iran Launching Satellites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 28, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just converted one of their 30-ton ballistic missiles into a satellite launcher.
This is an enormous step in Iran's weapons and space technology.

Only a handful of nations in the world have satellite technology.
And Iran has already launched 2 satellites.
First time it was a co-operative launch effort between Iran and the Soviets.
This time Iran flew solo launching a 100% made and manufactured in Iran "bird" (satellite).

When you have the ability to launch your own system then - literally -the sky is the limit.
We now know that the Iranians have the ability to see anything, hear everything and target anywhere.
The more satellites you own, the more you see.
That is a scary thought.

Yes, Chicken Little, the sky truly is falling.



Palestinian Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I've said it before and I know that I will be saying it again.
Tensions are rising between Palestinians.

The mini civil war going on in the Palestinian Authority has accelerated again. The war is about power and about control.
The war is about the direction of the Palestinian future.

Think of the old phrase "you get more with honey than with vinegar."
Abbas is thinking honey, Hamas is thinking vinegar.
Abbas has some come to the realization that Israel is here to stay, Hamas will never accept Israel.

Both sides now have weapons and are using them to kill each other.
Cease fires are never upheld and agreements are never enforced.
Over the past 2 months at least 5 cease fires have been called.
Palestinian fighters think of cease fires and agreements only as suggestions.

Now you understand the difficulty Israel has negotiating with the Palestinians.



Davos & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 26, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Davos is one of those conferences that really makes a difference.
Informally, participants meet, greet and actually begin to create solutions to issues confronting the world.
Formally, the presentations have serious impact on policies and perceptions.

The scope of the conference is so great that Mohammad Khatami, the former president of Iran, placed a call in order to suggest that the United States lean lighten up a little on the question of Iran's nuclear program.
Khahtami said: "I hope that they would be good enough in managing the situation. We deeply need patience and understanding and not to get too emotional."

Well here's some advice for you Khatami: the best way to reduce tensions is by letting inspectors in and by adhering to international standards.

The rest of the world may interpret this act of concern as a significant step - but coming on the day that Iran once again denies 38 inspectors entry into the country I see if for the deception that it truly is.



Ahmadinejad's Predictions
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 25, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) quoted Iranian President making some rather dire predictions about the United States and Israel.

Ahmadinejad said that "the United States and the Zionist regime of Israel will soon come to the end of their lives." That wasn't enough for him, he also said "Sparking discord among Muslims, especially between the Shiites and Sunnis, is a plot hatched by the Zionists and the US for dominating regional nations and looting their resources."
The Iranian president articulated these thoughts during a recent visit to Damascus Syria.

Ahmadinejad is right and Ahmadinejad is wrong.

Ahmadinejad is right because the United States and Israel really are trying to exploit inner Muslim rifts and Iran is beginning to feel the pressure.

Ahmadinejad is wrong to think that in the near or distant future either the United States or Israel would be in grave danger of destruction.

That's wishful thinking on the part of the Iranian president, not political analysis.



PA Budget Swells
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 24, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I took a peak at the Hamas led Palestinian Authority budget for 2007.
The 2007 budget is much larger than the 2006 Palestinian government budget.
The 2007 budget has significant increases in allocations.

How is that possible - isn't there an embargo against the Hamas led government?

There is.

Isn't the United States stopping all money from entering the PA?
They are - all except the money sent to Abbas by the United States and Israel.

This is how it is possible:

An embargo is not really an embargo and Hamas is getting money especially from the Gulf States.

And the United States and Israel are trying to bolster Abbas in his power struggle with Hamas.

How will this all resolve itself? No one knows.

But there is one thing for certain: Both Abbas and Hamas are coming into money and more money means more guns.

Bank on it.



Islamic Hatred of West
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 23, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

CNN and the BBC have run recent specials on Muslim extremism in England.
The sound bytes are truly frightening.

The BBC piece is the more terrifying of the two.
They went undercover to film and we hear the vitriol and bile being spewed in mosques in England.

We hear of the desire to take over Europe.
We hear an Imam curse Christians and Jews and democracy.

Many of the speakers were until this time thought to be moderates, they are the people we thought would convince the extremists of their mistaken ways.

In the CNN piece Christiane Amanpour walks and talks to an Imam who speaks in perfect English with a perfect British accent.

We hear him say that the only difference between him and his "brother" Osama Bin Ladin is that he believes that the Jihad should be an all out arms war.

We hear him say that their goals are the same.
This should be a wake-up call to the Western world.

We must solve this problem - it is growing, growing fast and growing in our own home towns.



A Big Google Error
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 21, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

I have seen 2 recent pieces slamming Google Earth. And justifiably so.

Google Earth is the site that provides maps and is solely powered and owned by Google.
Google Earth provides some of the most detailed maps one can find, maps so sophisticated that there are even up-to-the-minute satellite images of United States and her allied encampments in Iraq.
(The maps are so accurate that terrorists used them to - successfully, attack a British camp.)

I take issue with Google Earth because it refers to Gaza as "occupied."
Unless you were in a cave in August of 2005, you would know that Israel is no longer in Gaza - no Israelis and no Israeli army.
Not to mention how it refers to Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.

Google says that the site uses internationally accepted terms and borders.
However, post 1967 the UN referred to these sites as "disputed" not "occupied." In other words, the status of these places was to be worked out at a later date.
Google is operating under a serious misunderstanding of history and politics.



Iran Calls Israel's Bluff
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 19, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has publicly called Israel's bluff.
For those who think that Iran is some backwater society incapable of understanding the complicated machinations of international relations - listen to this.

On January 7th the Sunday Times of London and the NY Post ran a story on how Israel has plans to attack Iran's nuclear installations.
The story was a plant, it was clearly meant to send a message to Iran.

Iran's defense minister, Mustafa Mohammed Najjar, responded to the story during a press conference held yesterday with the Sudanese Defense Minister.
He said: "This is a bluff which serves psychological operation and aims to assess the reaction of the Iranian people and officials."
Then he spoke about the United State's intentions to strike Iran, suggesting that the United States is involved in a "psychological war on Iran."

Iran totally gets it.
The West must be much more clever in sending messages to Iran.
Iran should not be able to so quickly discern Western ploys.



Iran & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 18, 2007

I've Been Thinking:


The vast majority of Iranians dislike Western policy, but love Western culture. The vast majority of Iranians actually like the West, they even like Israel.
It is not Iranians who are so anti, it is Iranian leadership.
The real problem in Iran is Iranian leaders.

Take a look at British football, or soccer, as Americans call it.
On the team called Bolton Wanders there is a new Iranian mid-fielder and there are two Israeli players.
In a recent match Andranik Teimourian, the Iranian, scored a goal in the 49th minute.
And who was there to give him a huge hug - Idan Tal, one of his Israeli teammates.
They socialize, they talk, they eat one another's food, they enjoy one another's company - and they play well together.

The Hug was seen across the soccer world.
Teimourian got calls from Iran, not chastising him but congratulating him.
He is still on Iran's national soccer team, the youngest member on the team.

Sports, the great equalizer, the great neutralizer.
If only world leaders would play.



Sound Familiar
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 17, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Dan Halutz Israel's military Chief of Staff has resigned his position.

There was a committee to investigate Israel's reaction to war with Hezbollah.
Halutz promised that if the committee returned an unambiguous negative decision, he would resign.
The resignation came before the committee had finalized its findings.

No doubt the Israeli army was guilty of serious errors and miscalculations.
No doubt the cost of the war was very high and the losses very painful.
No doubt someone should be help accountable for those mistakes.
No doubt here is no more senior person than the Chief of Staff.

This was a war without a plan.
This was a war without clearly articulated goals.
This was a war without a timetable.

Almost unanimously, military and political leaders agree that Halutz had to go.
Dan Halutz had to go even if only to reinvigorate the army.

Does this sound familiar?



Travellers Part II
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 15, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I took a first look at the travel schedules of world leaders as a way to better understand world politics.
Here are some more puzzles to ponder.

The President of Iraq, Jalil Talibani, arrived in Syria to discuss security issues.
In Syria, Talibani is expected to visit the grave of the late President Hafez Assad.
If Syria and Iraq are on the same page, where does that leave the United States?

During Ahmadinejad's visit to Venezuela the two countries agreed that there is too much oil in the market and they will recommend to OPEC to reduce the amount brought to the world market.
Can these two make it really happen?

Hillary traveled from Iraq to Pakistan where she had a forceful conversation with Musharef about al Qaeda.
Does Hillary have enough clout for this conversation to impact our lives?

Cancelled travel plans reveal and teach as much as plans that are executed.
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader and Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, was uninvited by Kuwait - the visit was postponed to "an unknown date."
What happened there?



Who Is Travelling?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 14, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Interesting diplomatic face-to-face meetings are under way.

Condi Rice is in the Middle East.
Once again, she is trying to kick start the Palestinians and the Israelis.
The problem here is that the person she is talking to, Palestinian President Abbas, does not have the power to get things going and by law and policy she may not talk to Hamas.
The unfortunate media message following her trip will be an Israel unwilling to move even one inch toward the Palestinians until their kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit, is returned. Shalit is being held by Hamas.

Ahmadinejad has arrived in Venezuela for meetings with Hugo Chavez.
They are uniting to try to create an alternative world. They want to shift the world from United States influence towards Iranian and Venezuelan influence.
They have no problem meeting, talking and planning.
The problem will be in making their dream come true.

Hillary is in Iraq. No problem, no big deal. Politics as usual.



Hezbollah Is A Threat
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 12, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Every year the United States comes up with new a threat assessment.
This year, Hezbollah is named as one of the most significant threats.
Why? Because of the 34 day war between Hezbollah and Israel.

The United States now sees Hezbollah as a serious threat against US targets.
John Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence, said: "As a result of last summer's hostilities, Hezbollah's self-confidence and hostility toward the US as a supporter of Israel [this] could cause the group to increase its contingency planning against US interests.''

Safety in this world is just like the 10- step process in Alcoholics Anonymous. Recognition is the first step towards solving the problem.
The United States has taken that first step.
We are a target. Now we have to defend ourselves.



The President's Message
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

President Bush's speech hit all the right notes.
But nothing in his presentation was new.

The challenge is not what needs to be done.
The challenge is making certain that it gets done.

How do you actually make certain that the recommendations are put in place? How do you insist on reform, on de-Bathization, on strengthening the provinces, on insisting on enabling provinces to grow democratically and economically?

The first step is stopping the killing of one another with impunity.
That is what needs to be thought out, carried out, addressed.
That is what seems to be missing from this not-so-new strategy.



Saddam's Trial Resumed
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 9, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Saddam Hussein's trial resumed yesterday in Baghdad.
It was the trial accusing him of the gassing of 15,000 Kurds.
The first order of the court was to dismiss charges against Saddam.

And why not, after all, Saddam Hussein was executed on December 30th.
With Saddam Hussein out of the picture, first physically and now legally, it's a whole different case - the power, the punch, the kick are gone.
Saddam Hussein issued an order to gas a major percentage of the population of his country - and now he is no longer accountable for that act of brutality.
His slate had been wiped clean.

Now the case continues against Saddam's cousin Chemical Ali and 6 other men.
Now the case is simply about ultimate bureaucrats taking orders and doing what they are told.
Now the co-defendants now have the perfect defense, they were simply obeying orders.
History is being whitewashed.



Israel Versus Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 8, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The scoop in The Sunday Times of London, republished in the New York Post, proclaimed that Israel was preparing a strike against 3 Iranian nuclear facilities. The story should not have surprised anyone.
Israel's claim that the story was false should not have surprised anyone.

It is a reality of our times.
No country threatened with extermination by another country can afford not to have counter attack plans.
By their very nature, some of those plans are defensive and some are offensive.
So, yes, Israel has multiple plans for various attacks against Iran and some of those plans actually involve laser rocket and nuclear tipped weapons.

Like any democracy, Israel needs to make certain that appropriate counter measures to Iran's aggressions are in place, "on the shelf," ready for use.
Without a pre-determined response Israel will be destroyed.
It is either one or the other.
It is that simple.



Abbas Ups The Ante
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 7, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas has upped the ante.
The president of the Palestinian Authority President has moved to the next stage in the power struggle between his Fatah movement and the ruling Hamas movement.

Abbas has declared that the Hamas Executive Force is illegal.
The Hamas Executive Force is Hamas' military militia.
It has about 6000 armed members most of whom were in other Hamas terror groups before joining the Executive Force.

Why is Abbas is moving on Hamas? He has 3 reasons.
# 1: in a brutal fire fight on Thursday the Executive Force attacked and killed a Fatah leader in his home, also killed were his seven body guards
# 2: Jordan and Egypt are behind Abbas
# 3: President Bush is asking Congress for $83 million to help Abbas

It will take more than money to defeat Hamas.
Hamas is highly motivated - Fatah is fat and lazy.



Iran's True Ambitions
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 6, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Larijani, Iran's nuclear chief held a press conference in China.
It was very enlightening.

First: he confirmed that Iran has already produced 250 tons of UF-6 gas Uranium Hexaflouride which is the foundation for the uranium enrichment used in a high grade reactor. He said that the gas is stored in tunnels deep in the Isfahan nuclear experimental site.

Second: he let loose a real bomb by saying "We oppose obtaining nuclear weapons and we will peacefully use nuclear technology under the framework of the Nonproliferation Treaty, but if we are threatened, the situation may change..."

This last line confirms the worst fears of Western nations.
Regardless of what Iran has thus far --- Iran has nuclear weapons aspirations.

The Iranians do not have loose lips.
Larijani was delivering a message.



Iran & China
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China.
He is not there to talk about the price of tea.

Larijani is also head of Iran's National Security Council.
His main objective is to confirm that China will back Iran in the quest for nuclear research.
China is Iran's key to the United Nations.
China sits on the Security Council which gives the Chinese an automatic veto. China also imports approximately $100 billion in energy from Iran annually.
In Iran's eyes the only power in the world able to challenge the US is China.

Here is the twist:
Iran wants to secure a real agreement from China - that means a real commitment from China.

It boils down to one central issue:
Does China want to fight the United States on the issue of Iran's nuclear activity, are China's energy needs worth a knock out battle with Uncle Sam.

Larijani thinks it is worth the trip.



Fictions In Iran & The Muslim World
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 4, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

On Baztba, an Iranian government website, a leading adviser to Ahmadinejad named Mahmoud Ali Ramin claims that Hitler was Jewish.
He claims that both of Hitler's parents were Jewish and that Hitler was really dedicated to establishing Israel.

Where do these ideas come from?
Ramin actually sites his source, a book entitled, Hitler: Founder of Israel, by Hennecke Kardel. The book can be purchased on Amazon in paperback. How and why Amazon can sell a work of this kind and not list it as fiction is another matter.

The book fuels a myth.
The book proves an essential point.
There is no logic behind this kind of thinking and no logical thinking will ever convince someone who wants to believe that Hitler murdered six million Jews in order to create the State of Israel otherwise.

Fiction, false information and conspiracy theories.
That's the prism through which the Muslim world views the Holocaust.



The Human Side of Saddam
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 3, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Robert Ellis, a United States army nurse, treated Saddam Hussein while the Iraqi dictator was in United States custody.
When Ellis recounts his exchanges with his patient, Saddam Hussein not only sounds human, he sounds kindly.
He describes how Saddam fed the birds, how when Ellis had to return to the US because his brother was dying, Saddam said he would be Ellis' brother.

Is Ellis delusional?
This is Saddam Hussein, aka the Butcher of Baghdad.
The truth is, dictators and mass murderers are not the devil incarnate, they are humans who perform dastardly acts.
They can murder thousands of people without shedding a tear and then cry their hearts out when a pet dies.
They can wantonly kill women and children then come home and enjoy classical music.

Mass murders are perpetrated by humans.
And sometimes, under certain conditions, they are likeable humans.



Palestinians Mourn Saddam
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 1, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Nowhere outside of Baghdad has Saddam Hussein been mourned more than in the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinians set up mourning tents at various locations and the people came in droves - 700 mourners in Jenin. The Palestinian numbers are shocking compared to the several hundred Iraqi mourners who visited Saddam's new grave. In the tents the Palestinians shouted death to Maliki, death to Bush and death to al Sadr. They grieve the loss of a strong powerful Sunni leader.

Why did the Palestinians so love Saddam?
He gave Palestinians pride. He challenged the United States. He bombed Israel. He attacked Iran.
Palestinians have three great enemies and Saddam Hussein hit them all.
Even on the gallows Saddam cursed the Persians (Iranians), the United States and the Shiites and he blessed the Palestinians.

All this goes to the mindset and mythos of the Middle East.
First and foremost the Middle East is about internal Islamic conflict after that it is about external US involvement and finally it is about the plight of Sunnis and the Palestinians.

Don't mix up Arab priorities. The Arab world has a clear agenda, recognize it.



4 Senators in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 31, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past two weeks 4 United States Senators have visited Damascus Syria.

They were not sightseeing.
These four senators - three democrats and one republican - represent 4% of the senate, they represent almost 10% of the states in the US.

First was Bill Nelson of Florida, next Chris Dodd of Connecticut, next John Kerry of Massachusetts and lastly the Republican, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.

The senators all spoke with Syrian President Assad and all came out with the impression that Assad was willing to talk peace with Israel and to help the United States in the war in Iraq.

These leaders are not political novices but they act like novices. They have learned nothing from the lessons taught us by Yasser Arafat.

Politics is played with one set of rules in the United States and played with an entirely different set of rules in the Middle East.

Assad will say anything to any US leader if it will get him out of the dog house or if it will add to the problems of Unites States or Israeli leadership - the people responsible for penning him in.

Senators, Assad is not to be trusted.

Assad cannot deliver, he is a very weak leader, he himself hangs on only because of a carefully crafted balancing act.



Finally The US Comes Clean
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, the truth was acknowledged by the State Department.
Only 34 years and one hour too late.

Yesterday the US State Department released documents and message intercepts that 100% implicate Yasser Arafat in the murders of Cleo Noel, the United States Ambassador in Sudan, his deputy George Curtis Moore and the deputy ambassador to the Belgium embassy.

For year "people in the know" knew. But the United States never said a word. The documents show that Arafat actually sent a message to the terrorists and that the terrorists were dropped off in official Fatah cars.
Arafat was so central to the operation that when the message from him to the terrorists was intercepted, the US intelligence people on site rushed to warn the parties, but it was too late.

The now declassified document clearly lays blame on Arafat. "The Khartoum operation was planned and carried out with the full knowledge and personal approval of Yasser Arafat, Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the head of Fatah."

Shame on Arafat.
Shame on the United States for turning a blind eye to justice.



Arms Race in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

If anyone has any doubt about which side Egypt is on in the intra-Palestinian conflict listen to this.

Egypt just transferred 2000 AK-47 rifles and 20,000 magazines with an additional 2 million bullets to --- Abbas and his Fatah units.
They were given the weapons to defend themselves against Hamas.
They were given with Israel's knowledge.

The arms race is now up and running in Gaza.
Fatah versus Hamas.
Iran and Hezbollah are trying to outfit Hamas while Egypt and the United States and even Israel are trying to help Fatah.

Egypt sees Hamas as a serious threat.
In Egyptian eyes Hamas does not play by the rules, so Egypt is helping Fatah topple them.
It's that simple.



Don't Execute Saddam--Yet
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Appeals Court in Iraq has upheld the November 5th ruling by the lower court stipulating that Saddam Hussein be executed within 30 days.
The Appeals Court is making a serious mistake.

It is a mistake because Saddam Hussein was tried and convicted for perpetrating a mass murder that took place in 1982 that killed 148 Shiite Muslims in the northern town of Dujail.
Just one incident involving one case of mass murder.
Saddam Hussein is guilty of tens of thousands more incidents of mass murder.

The only way to actually right the wrong that Saddam perpetrated on the Iraqi people is to try him for every event and enter every event into the court record and convict him of every murder.
This mass murderer must be held accountable for more than one single event.

Executing Saddam Hussein now is cathartic, but short sighted.
The present government needs to come into its own and get out from the beneath shadow of Saddam.
They must confront the evil and acknowledge all the murders.
And then Saddam Hussein should be executed.



Saudi Ambassador For Health & Home
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 25, 2006

I've Been thinking:

The Saudi Ambassador to Washington left the United States very, very quickly.
Something happened.

Background: The former Ambassador is a very thoughtful person. At home he was head of Saudi Military Strategy. Before coming to the US he was ambassador in London. He is a member of the royal family, he is a prince.

We don't know why he was called back, but I have some educated guesses:
Was it a scandal? Probably not.
Was it a personal health issue? Probably not.
Was he needed elsewhere? Probably.

There are 3 types of Saudi emergency, 3 important issues for the royals:
Protecting the monarchy as a whole.
Protecting your smaller family and its stake in leadership and power.
The health of a loved royal one.

I think the Ambassador was called back to claim the Interior Ministry because a close relative is ailing. Otherwise, the ministry will go to someone from a different part of the family which would shift power in the family from one side to another. The Interior Ministry is responsible for internal security in the kingdom

It is all about safety and health in the House of Saud.



Qatar Gives 30 Soldiers To UN
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab oil nation Qatar has just made a pledge of 30 soldiers.
30 soldiers from Qatar will join UN forces in Lebanon to help keep the peace.

This is a huge step for any Arab nation.
Generally, the idea is that an Arab country is stepping forward to try to keep Muslims safe from Muslims.
Specifically, the idea is that the international force will keep Hezbollah from taking over the country.

Applause and fanfare from the international community are in order.
Arab and Muslim nations should take responsibility for the safety of fellow Muslims.
Unfortunately, Qatar's commitment will probably go unannounced and have very little impact on colleague nations.

Thirty may not be a very large number, but it is a lot bigger than zero.
I say kudos to Qatar.



Laugh or Cry
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

In my line of work you tend to find humor in the strangest places.

There is now a mini civil war in Gaza, Arab killing Arab.
Over the past week several dozen Palestinians have been killed - the children and extended family members of leading Palestinian families have been targeted, bystanders have been killed. And many Palestinians have been injured in shootouts. Obviously, there is nothing humorous about that.

Where are the wounded treated?
Some are treated in Gaza hospitals.
Others have chosen to be treated in Israeli hospital.
Why? Because they are afraid of being assassinated even in the hospital.

Imagine.
Palestinians feel safer in Israel among Jews than in Gaza among Arabs.
And some of the wounded might very well be the people responsible for shooting Kassam rockets into Israel.

Laugh. The alternative is to cry.



Iran's Game
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is torquing up the tensions with the United States and with the West.
Iran just came out with a savvy new maneuver in the nuclear game.

Yesterday while on tour of a western province in Iran Ahmadinejad declared that "Iran is now a nuclear power."
He was quoted by IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency)

He said: "Iranian young scientists reached the zenith of science and technology and gained access to the nuclear fuel cycle without the help of big powers."
He said: "the powerful Iranian nation resists bullying powers and will defend its rights, including the right to pursue peaceful nuclear technology."

What is Ahmadinejad trying to achieve with these statements?
Iran has been a nuclear nation for forty years. The first Iranian nuclear facility, a small 5 megawatt system located in Teheran, opened in 1967.

Ahmadinejad has two goals in mind:
To rile up local Iranians in their confrontation with the West
To rile the West into confrontation with Iran

My advice: Don't take the bait.



Syria Wants Out Of US Dog House
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

President Bashar Assad of Syria is in Russia.
After concluding a meeting with Vladimir Putin the Syrian and Russian leaders held a joint press conference.

Bashar Assad said that Syria is in favor of resuming talks with the US.
He said that Syria is "open to dialogue with the United States but will not take orders from Washington."

Syria wants to relieve the pressure being brought on them by the West, principally by the United States.
The pressure Syria is feeling is linked to Syrian sponsorship of terror, especially Syria's support of Hezbollah and Hamas.
And Syria is still taking the heat for the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafik Harriri and for their relationship, or rather lack of relationship, with Israel.

Nothing would suit Syria better than to get out of the US dog house.
Syria wants an end to the US sponsored boycott against them and is willing to change its ways.
Tradition and honor does not allow them to say so directly to the United States.



Nelson Steps Over The Line
By Micah Halpern

Sunday, December 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I was surprised to get the email announcement from Syria proclaiming that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson of Florida was visiting and meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

I am distressed that Bill Nelson has still not received an official slap on the wrist.

Nelson was in The Region, he met with Israelis, Palestinians, Iraqis and Jordanians and then he popped over to Syria to meet with Assad.

Who does he think he is?

A United States senator does not just go around conducting independent foreign policy that totally contradicts official current policy.
The State Department reluctantly tagged along and sent reps from the US Embassy in Amman.
But by law Nelson may not use any of his senatorial money and travel allocations to visit Syria.

I await the response of the White House and the Justice Department.
Nelson stepped way over the line even if he was advancing a democratic research and information gathering mission.

Assad and the Arab world are loving this, the papers are full of op-eds and predictions.

If there is one foreign policy in the United States it is this:
You do not test the waters until you are in power.




Egypt's Border
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, the Palestinian Prime Minster was blocked from entering Gaza at the Egyptian side of the border.
Eventually, he was permitted to cross and to enter Gaza.

Ismail Haniyeh has been raising money for Hamas and for his government by traveling to places like Sudan, Iran and Qatar.
He had 10's of millions of dollars on him as he approached the border.
He declared that he was carrying money.
The Egyptians told the Israelis.
The Israelis said they would not let him in with the money.
The Egyptians and international border monitors all agreed that crossing the border with the money would be a flagrant violation of all the agreements.
Haniyeh agreed to cross without the money.
A section of the fence was blown open and the Rafah border crossing terminal was turned into a blood zone.
There was an assassination attempt on the life of the Prime Minister.
A Hamas member of the Palestinian Parliament called for an elimination of the entire border with Egypt because it only serves the Zionists.

Bottom line:
There is no way that Egypt would get rid of that border.
That border keeps the Palestinians out of Egypt.



Not About The Holocaust
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Holocaust deniers have met in Iran.
They have drawn their own conclusion and made them public.
But here's the thing - this was not about the Holocaust.

The purpose of the conference was not to deny the Holocaust.
Holocaust denial was just a tool.
The purpose of the conference was to deny Israel's right to exist.
Holocaust deniers believe that Israel's existence was created as a result of the Holocaust.

David Duke, the former National Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan said at the conference in Iran: "This conference has an incredible impact on Holocaust studies all over the world ... The Holocaust is the device used as the pillar of Zionist imperialism, Zionist aggression, Zionist terror and Zionist murder."

Their logic is simple, but their logic is flawed.
They believe that Israel was created because of the Holocaust and that without a Holocaust there is no justification for the Jewish State.
The truth is that Israel was created not because of the Holocaust.
The truth is that Israel was created as a result of the 1948 war with the Arabs.




An Arab Woman Speaks Out
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Taraji Mustafa is a Sudanese human rights activist.
She established the Sudanese - Israeli Friendship League.

Al Arabiya has put together a video clip in which she explains why she established the League.
She also explains why she attacks Arab leaders and Arab media as being racist, oppressive and wrong about Israel and about internal Arab issues.
This is the second time an Arab woman has used the Arab media to challenge the prevailing winds.

Unfortunately, her analysis will fall on deaf Arab decision maker ears.
We, at least, should hear her out.
The clip is very powerful and certainly worth checking out.
Below is the link:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3337609,00.html



A $500 Million Donation
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Sheldon Adelson is the 3rd richest man in the world after Bill Gates and Warren Buffet.
He just donated $500 million to Israel for medication and care for the poor and needy.
He also donated $25 million to Yad Vashem, the Israeli Holocaust Memorial, for Holocaust education.

Adelson grew up in Boston where he sold newspapers on street corners. He made his fortune in Comdex a computer trade show company and hit it even bigger in Las Vegas with the Sands Hotel.
Jews, like Adelson, are giving a lot of money to help other Jews in need and to support Jews in Israel - everyone, of course, according to their own ability.

For the majority of the Jewish community giving charity is second nature.
It is what they do.
They care and they commit and they put their shoulder to the wheel.
Has anyone asked why other communities do not do the same?

Private citizen Sheldon Adelson is personally giving more monetary aid to a foreign country than most countries give in international aid.




Mubarak Says Watch Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

When the leader of one Arab country makes an observation about another Arab country, I pay careful attention.

While on tour in France Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak of Egypt took the opportunity to talk about Lebanon.
Mubarak made reference to the massive Hezbollah rallies taking place in Beirut. Mubarak expressed genuine concern that these rallies could turn violent and if they do turn violent it could subvert and even destroy Lebanon.

Mubarak was particularly concerned about the impact of "outside influences."
In his interview on French TV-3 he said: "There is also the risk of foreign interference in these protests. That could result in very serious confrontations and even lead to the destruction of Lebanon."

This is as clear as an Arab leader will ever get.
Translation: "we must stop Syria."



EU & US talk to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian news agency Maan has reported a shocking occurrence - a real scoop.
They have sources who claim that EU officials have met with Hamas representatives.
They have sources who claim that officials from the US Democratic Party have had meetings with Hamas.

What's the shocker?
The European Union and the United States are officially boycotting Hamas.
So please explain how those meeting happened.

There's more:
There is an economic boycott and embargo on all aid to the Palestinians until they accept the Quartet's conditions and accept Israel's right to exist.
So now explain how and why the EU increased their aid to the Hamas led Palestinians Authority by 27% this year bringing the total amount to $865 million.

I'll explain.
It's simple.
Rules are meant to be broken.



Real Hamas Power
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Who really runs Hamas?
The obvious answer would be Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh.
Obvious, but wrong.

Haniyeh just wrapped up a visit to Syria.
Haniyeh met with Bashar Assad, president of Syria.
More importantly, Haniyeh met with Khaled Mashal the real leader of Hamas.

Real Hamas power rests not in Gaza, real Hamas power comes out of Syria.
Real Hamas decision making is made not by Ismail Haniyeh, real decisions are made by Khaled Mashal.

The big question now is whether Mashal can agree to Israel's terms for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Hamas leadership in Gaza wants to agree to the deal but Hamas leadership in exile has not given Gaza the go-ahead.

One kidnapped Israeli soldier for 1000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Will Mashal agree?
We have to wait and see.



White House Gets Tough
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has been keeping the momentum going.
Only days ago George Bush met with Iraq's prime minister Maliki's in Jordan.
Yesterday, back home, Bush had a scheduled meeting with the leader of the largest Shiite representation in the Iraqi parliament, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim.

The president of the United States met with the man who pulls the strings, the man behind Maliki, the man who tells Maliki what to do and when to do it.
The president met with the leader of the Shiite faction that really put Maliki in power.
They put the prime minister in power, not the United States - and that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions between Shiite interests and United States interests in Iraq.

Bush did not mince words.
Bush said point blank that not enough is being done to curb Shiite violence.
Bush didn't say sectarian violence, he said Shiite violence.
Bush said that if the attacks are not stopped there will be no progress towards democracy.
Bush articulated the biggest gripe the United States has with Iraq right now.

Will the Shiites listen? I don't know.
But good for you George Bush, good for you for speaking your mind.
It's about time.



Not A Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Here is the question: Is there a civil war going on in Iraq.
Here is the answer: It's all a matter of semantics and definition.

If you define a civil war merely as internal fighting, the answer is yes, there is dangerous internal fighting happening in Iraq.
But I think that the term "civil war" has a bigger and more significant meaning.

Civil war requires a battle over the power and future of a government.
Civil war means that the fighters represent significant parties in the population that are vying for power.
Anything less is civil unrest - not civil war.

The Sunnis cannot mount a civil war.
They do not have the weapons or the power.
There is no way they can become the leaders of Iraq.
They do not represent enough people in Iraq to control Iraq.
They cannot topple the government.

The only power Iraq's Sunnis have is the fear factor.
The ability to instill fear does not meet the definition of civil war.



The Pope and Islam
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Pope's visit to Turkey is a historic and significant step forward in Catholic/Muslim affairs.
To only focus on Muslim critique of the trip is to miss the true purpose of the Pope's visit.

The Pope actually prayed in the Blue Mosque in Turkey. The official Vatican spokesperson said that he meditated, that he took off his shoes and replaced them with a set of white slippers. He was seen moving his lips in the Mosque.
Those gestures, silent as they were, resonate loudly.

The Pope understands Islam, he understands that Allah and God are one and the same. He is upset because he sees that in Islam religion is sometimes used as an excuse for oppression and abuse. He is upset because to his way of thinking violence should not be part of religion.

Those Muslims who actually watched the Pope and listened to what he did say found a leader who is enormously open. They saw a Pope who is reaching out to an Islam of peace not an Islam of war.

Al Qaeda called this trip the act of a Crusader intent on destroying Islam. Actually it was a trip intended to help Islam discover its true path and then destroy al Qaeda.



My Plan For Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Is there any way for Iraq's Sunni and Shiite populations to live together - perhaps not in perfect harmony but at least without killing each other?
There is, I have the plan.
No magic wand and no magic bullet, it won't even require years of re-education.
All it requires is a restructuring of government.

My plan:
Iraq needs to divide into cantons or provinces that are woven together by a very weak and very loose central or national government.
Yes, a weak central government.
The wealthier provinces will help the poorer provinces through a tax.
There will be no national army.
Locals will police themselves - this is very important, it means that Shiites determine law and order in Shiite neighborhoods and Sunnis determine law and order in Sunni neighborhoods.
Local, local, local, everything must be local.

Empower on the local level and keep national supervision to the very minimum. Small changes can bring about big success.



Finally A Wise Move
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, silence is golden.
Especially in diplomacy.

George Bush is coming to the Middle East and meeting with regional leaders.
Ehud Olmert has not requested a meeting with George Bush.
Actually, Olmert has requested not to have a meeting with George Bush.
It is one of the smartest, most savvy, political moves Olmert could have made.

Meeting Bush now would be disastrous for Israel.
Bush would pressure Israel even more on the Palestinians.
If they don't meet, Bush doesn't have to pressure.
If they don't meet, Olmert can send messages saying that the Palestinians must contain the terror.
If an Israeli/Palestinian summit were called now, it would only turn out bad for Israel.

From the point of view of the White House the real purpose of this regional trip is to get support and feedback about Iraq.
Iran is next on the agenda, the Iranian issue is gaining more and more prominence in regional talks.
Israelis and the Palestinians and even Lebanon are only a sidebar.
Another big item agenda deserves another big trip.



Ceasefire For A Moment
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

A ceasefire has been declared.
The Palestinians have agreed to stop firing kassam rockets at Israel.
Israel has agreed to pull out of Gaza and to stop targeting Palestinian leaders.

Is peace finally on the way?
Not quite.
Abbas and Olmert spoke, but there is no clear understanding as to how to handle violations of the ceasefire.
It is not a question of "if" violations happen, but "when" they happen.
The ceasefire is temporary, it will save lives, but policing the cease fire is just as important.

President Bush and Secretary of State Condi Rice will be in the region on Wednesday. They will be in Jordan. Elliot Abrams, the senior person U.S. person in the Middle East will be in Israel on Tuesday.
So far, there have no changes in itinerary, so far there are no plans for a Summit.

But you never know.



Russia Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian News Agency just reported that Russia is making good on a deal to deliver Surface-to-Air Missiles.

The missile is called the TOR-M1.
It is a highly sophisticated weapon.
It can fire on 2 targets at the same time.
It can identify and track 48 different targets.
Russia is delivering 29 units to Iran right now.
The entire package is costing the Iranians about three-quarter-of-a-billion dollars.

Yes the United States knows.
Yes the United States is up in arms, but is there anything the U.S. can do?
Yes there is, the U.S. must be very firm with Russia.

Russia must start paying the price for playing both sides. Until now Russia has been rewarded on the one side, verbally chastised on the other.
The time has come to financially squeeze Russia into submission.
If Russia wants to reap the benefits of friendship with the U.S. they have to tow the line.



Very Porous Borders
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has just made public some important information:
In January 2006 they caught about 400 foreigners coming over the Egyptian border smuggling prostitutes and drugs.
The Israeli army estimates they caught about 40% of the cross-border activity.

Here's the big question:
If 60% of contraband that does not pose an existential threat to Israel makes it through the border, what percentage of weapons makes it through?
The answer:
A shockingly high percentage of weapons gets in across the border.

Israel is deeply concerned about the Gaza border between Egypt and the Palestinians.
But their concern appears to be misplaced.
The border between Israel and Egypt is obviously very porous and the amount of weapons and contraband sneaking across is frightening.
Terrorists remain in Gaza.
Weapons spread everywhere.



Lieberman's Solutions
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Politicians speak their own language.
Sometimes, they just want to grab a headline.
Sometimes they just want to let out a little kernel of information. Sometimes they actually have insight into a situation.

Avigdor Lieberman, the new addition to Olmert's government is a character.
He loves to get a rise out of people. He also has some important insight on how to resolve the problem of Palestinians shooting kassam rockets at Israel.

He has 2 suggestions:
# 1: Israel takes back the control of the Egyptian - Gaza border, which would inhibit the flow of weapons now entering through that border
# 2: send Hamas leaders to "paradise" the euphemism is a not-so- cute way of concealing an ugly policy of targeting

For a long time Israel had a policy of targeting Hamas leadership.
They targeted its political leadership and they targeted its religious leadership.
But now Hamas leadership is in power.
That's a different situation.

It might work. But the United States is pressuring Israel to meet with the future Palestinian unity government, not target and kill them.
That's a problem.



Iranian Nuclear Plant Since '67
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

A little background: Iran got its first nuclear reactor in 1967, it has been up and running in Teheran ever since.
It is a light water 5 mega-watt system that has reached the end of its safe life and must be shut down and replaced.
Most people didn't know that.

So, Iran is building several other replacements.
The biggest will be a 40 mega-watt heavy water installation at Arak, about 100 miles south of Teheran.

Iran sees this whole entire international uproar as an exaggeration.
We would call it a tempest in a tea pot.
They call it an anti-Muslim campaign orchestrated by the United States which is in Israel's proverbial pocket.

For the International community, especially the U.S., the problem with the Iranian nuclear program is not about moving from one system to another - it is about Iran's lack of transparency and compliance. Iran just doesn't get that.

For Iran it is all about honor and independence. They argue that if they have had a reactor since '67, and if they are allowed by treaty to produce and experiment with nuclear technology, why are they a pariah now for simply doing what they should be entitled to do it?

Is the teapot half empty, or is it half full?



UN Versus Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes the United Nations does great good.
But other times, the United Nations makes big mistakes.

Friday night's decision to create a committee to investigate how 19 Palestinians were killed by an errant Israeli shell was an improper decision.

The decision passed in the General Assembly 156-7 with 6 abstentions. $120,000 was allocated to house the investigators in Israel.
Former President Jimmy Carter is the name that most people are suggesting to head the group.

Here is the problem:
Hamas deliberately places kassam factories in residential settings and hides their leaders among residents to discourage Israel from hitting back.
But Israel is defending itself from terrorist attacks.
Mathematically, when attackers are hiding under the cover of civilians there is always a possibility of mistakes and the closer to civilians you are, the higher the chance of mistakes.
And missiles do not always fall according to plan.

19 Palestinians should not have died.
But it was not the intention of Israelis.
It is the objective of Hamas.



Iran Forked Out $120 Million
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

In a highly unusual move, Iran has actually made good on a promise to donate money.
Typically, Iran is all talk no action when it comes to monetary pledges.

But Iran actually donated the $120 million to the Hamas government that it has been promising for almost a year now.
We know that the money came through because the announcement came from the Palestinians, not from the Iranians.

Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar proudly announced that:
"Iran has so far given $120 million to the Palestinian government and they have told us that they will provide more financial help."

Iran is notorious for making empty promises. By coming through with the donation Iran is signaling that it believes it can now make a serious impact on Palestinian society.
Iran wants a foot in the Palestinian door in order to begin Shiite outreach within the Palestinian Authority.
They recently opened an outreach center in Ramallah.

There is no history of Shiite in the region but that will not stop Iran.
This is not a freebie.



A New Terror Flick
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 16, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is a new terror film out.
It takes place at the Paris airport.

The plot of the documentary movie involves smuggling a brick of clay onto an airplane. It was a remarkably easy thing to do. If the characters in the movie could carry it off, almost any half-witted terrorist could carry it off.

Back to reality, there is currently a case being brought by six Arab employees at the real Paris airport. The six were fired because they could not adequately explain their travels to terror-centered parts of the world.

They claim they were fired because they were Arabs.
They will lose the case.
Even in France.

The film makes a point about how sensitive airport work is.
No one says you have to work in an airport and no one says that you cannot travel to Afghanistan.

However, if you do work in an airport and you do travel to Afghanistan, you had better have a good explanation.
Or find work elsewhere.



Money At The Border
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The financial boycott against Hamas is still working.
There is little doubt in my mind that the most effective tool for clamping down on terror is cutting off their money. That includes Hamas.

Yesterday, a Palestinian deputy minister wanted to cross from Egypt into Gaza. He declared that he was carrying 2 million Euros of aid that he had collected in Saudi Arabia. The Egyptian border guard told the minister that he would need approval. The border is controlled by Egyptians on their side, Gazans on their side and EU representatives and Israelis who monitor what happens. That is why the minister was not allowed to procede.

Meanwhile on Sunday the Arab league in Cairo met and agreed that they had to try to break the boycott and get promised monies that are sitting in Arab Banks to the Palestinians. They said that $100 million had managed to get to the PA during the past year.

In June the Palestinian Foreign Minster successfully brought in 20 million Euros showing just how porous the Egyptian-Gazan border really is.

Pressure from the boycott is the only way that the Palestinians might be empowered to oust Hamas from power.



Russia & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Larijani, head of Iran's nuclear program met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
It was a much anticipated meeting.
The United States and Israel hoped that Russia would talk some sense into Iran.

After the meeting Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: "We will push for our common goal - the resumption of talks with six nations."
For Russia the only answer can only be diplomatic.

Russia is too heavily invested in what happens in Iran.
Russia helps provide weapons and know-how to Iran.
Russia is building Iran's nuclear power plants.
Russia wants to make certain that the situation in Iran does not spin out of control.

Russia is most definitely not an impartial broker in these negotiations.
Russia is most definitely not willing to jeopardize a huge client in the name of making the US and Israel happy.

Let's get real.



MI5 & Terror Threats
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

MI5, Britain's equivalent of the CIA, just acknowledged that there were thirty terror threats in the region.
MI5 disclosed that they have a list of 200 groups and 1600 people being watched very carefully.

Startling?
It shouldn't be.
Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the head of MI5, says that England has to be prepared.
She is right about that.

England is definitely on the terrorist list of next places to strike.
The reasons are so clear - the increasing size off the Muslim population in England plus the ease with which the terrorists acted during the recent terror scares in London.

I am glad to see that England is waking up to this new reality.



Iran Is Just Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is elated about the shift in power in Washington.
They actually believe that there will be a change in policy that will reduce the chance of conflict between their nation and the United States. Look at some of their comments.

English-language Iran News said: "Most Americans have finally caught up with the rest of the world in rebuking the irresponsible, militaristic, arrogant, belligerent and entirely destabilizing policies of the Bush administration."

The conservative daily Siyasate Rouz agreed: "Regarding Iran and other opponents of America's policies around the world, there will be tangible changes but because Republicans are still in power in the White House, we cannot call it a major change in America's foreign policy."

And another quote: "Washington's attitude toward the Middle East, especially Palestine, will change. And of course because Democrats are very close to the Zionist regime (Israel), it will increase diplomatic pressure on regional countries."

Iran has no idea how the United States functions.
Do they actually think that when confronted with a threat like Iran's nuclear capabilities any US leader would be anything other than assertive?
Obviously, they do.



The Last Dictator Visits Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Guess who recently visited Teheran to meet with Iran's Ahmadinejad?
You guessed it, Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarusia.
Really.

The ostensible purpose in meeting was to boost trade for their mutual defense. Then they were strategized on how to unite against the United States. Ahmadinejad called Lukashenko "brave" for the way he confronted the U.S.

Lukashenko is a tyrant, a throw back to the previous century.
Hitler is one of his heroes.
The White House has called him the last dictator.

The union between Iran and Belarus is deeply troubling. This alliance provides the financially strapped Lukashenko with weapons and monies and access to weapons in order to confront the U.S. and the West from home, right smack in the heart of Europe.

This is a union that was expected.
It falls to us to monitor this relationship carefully.




Next Summer, War With Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli High Command is expecting another war next summer.
This time the war will be between Israel and Syria and Hezbollah.

This is very frightening. Israel has yet to really review the lessons of this past summer's war with Hezbollah and here they are, anticipating another.

Why is the High Command so convinced another war is being planned?
They think that Syria and Hezbollah think that Israel is in a weakened state of security.
They think that, at the same time, the Syrians and Hezbollah think of themselves as being at the perfect point of attack, building up the arms that they used so effectively this past summer.

The Israeli High Command is concerned about how to quickly update and improve their systems for a new and ever-present threat.
They have reason to be concerned - a country should always be prepared.
Very prepared.



Finally, Mulsim Self-Critique
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Once again there is a crack in the wall of Muslim unity and as usual it fell on deaf ears in the West.

A Jordanian Prince said that the riots and the response of the Muslim world over the cartoons that depicted the Prophet Mohamed showed the basic instability of the Muslim world.

Are you paying attention?
Do you get the significance of what is being said?
I hope you get it, because the decision makers and policy players sure don't or they would have reacted big time.

That observation is a gargantuan step forward.
The vast majority of leaders in the Muslim world came out condemning the decision made by the Danish Courts that the cartoons were not illegal.
Now someone of importance in the Arab and Muslim world is offering insight and self-criticism.

Now that's news.



They Want Siniora Dead
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a flurry of diplomatic dialogue and a round of news reports about assassinating Lebanese leadership and toppling the Lebanese government.

Condi Rice said it. Tony Snow said it.
They said Hezbollah, Syria and Iran want Fouad Siniora dead.

Hezbollah and Syria have both denied the accusation. But that means very little. It would not be the first time that any of these three sponsored a political assassination, and then denied it.

Here is why they really do want Siniora out, if not actually dead:
Lebanon is actually beginning to take charge of its own destiny.
Lebanon wants Hezbollah and Iran in their place and controlled and they want Syria on the other side of the border.

Mainstream Lebanese now realize that they now have a perfect opportunity try to make things work internally.
They have started to capture weapons, they are reporting on smuggled weapons, they are joining the fight.
This is only a start - but without Siniora it would come to a complete stop.



Nasrallah Ranting
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I follow very closely what Arab leaders have to say, especially when they speak about the United States and Israel.
So when Sheik Hassan Nasrallah gave a television interview to Al-Manar on Tuesday, I paid particular attention.

Nasrallah was being very defensive.
He said that the U.S. failed in Iraq and that the Arab world had risen to battle the United States.
He said that the Arab world should not be blamed for Islamic extremism, that the U.S. should be blamed and that the U.S. should also be blamed for the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Nasrallah said the U.S. has "no future" in the Arab world and that "they will leave the Mid East, Arab and Islamic worlds just as they left Viet Nam, and I advise those who are counting on them to draw conclusion from the Viet Nam experience."

Nasrallah is so far from the truth.
He is feeling internal pressure arising out of the suggestion that terror and violence are endemic to the Arab world.
Certainly there are some similarities with Viet Nam, but only superficial similarities.

The war on terror is not Viet Nam.



The Pope's Prayers
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Pope Benedict XVI went on record condemning the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and prayed for their return.
Or did he?

This is what Pope Benedict said at St Peter's Square in Rome at Sunday Mass:
"From several sides I am getting requests to intervene in favor of people who are victims of kidnappings in different countries around the world."
"While I reiterate the firmest condemnation of this crime I remember in prayer all the victims, their families and friends."

I think the Pope wanted to thread the needle between the Israeli victims and the Arabs who are so sensitive to being singled out as aggressors - but there can be no moral relativism here, and the Pope knows that better than anyone.
Couching the prayer in the way he did now parallels Arab prisoners with the Israeli kidnapped victims. Palestinian prisoners are held because of their actions - they were planning something or they did something, a court either convicted them or will try them.

That is absolutely not the case with the three Israeli soldiers.
The Pope knows better.



Why He Was Kidnapped
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I just read an interview with Michael Phillips.
Philips is the young American from New Orleans who was kidnapped and held by Palestinians gunmen for 26 hours in the West Bank city of Nablus.

Michael Phillips said that he still does not know why he was kidnapped.
He said he is not a journalist.
He said it was not terror.
He wants to understand why he, who came to help out, was kidnapped.

I'll tell him why.
He is an American in a place where Americans are not welcome.
That makes him, and everyone like him, a perfect kidnap victim.
Phillips is a Westerner and as a Westerner he represents much of what is hated in that part of the world.
So even if his kidnapping was a criminal act and not a political act, the underlying reasons are the same.

All Americans are easy prey.



Most Muslims Are Democrats
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Newsflash: Most Muslims in the United States affiliate with the Democratic Party.
I hope that did not take you by surprise.

CAIR, the Council on American Islamic Relations, just published a study based on a pool of 1000 Arab American respondents.

What did their statistics show?
42% of Arab Americans are Democrats while only 17% are Republicans
More importantly:
80% of the Arab Americans they surveyed believe that terror hurts them as Arab Americans
31% attend mosque regularly while 27% seldom or never attend mosque

That is great news for Americans.
That means that the threat of home grown terror in the U.S. is much less than some would have believed.
Why? Because the future growth of terror in the United States is in the mosques and with the Muslim extremists who are in the Mosques, that's why.



Russia vs USA
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

On issues regarding the Palestinian Hamas government there is a deep chasm that separates the point of view of the Russian government and the point of view of the United States government.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was recently quoted in the Kuwaiti news agency KUNA. Lavrov said:
That the demands the Quartet and the West are making on Hamas are excessive and unreasonable.
That it is too much to expect Hamas to recognize Israel and renounce violence.

In essence, Russia believes that there should be no preconditions to recognition and that the main objective is to talk.

The United States, on the other hand, has said time and again that certain minimum standards must be met even before the talking begins.
The United States believes that recognition is the very minimum starting point, that to think of negotiating any other way is just naĂŻve.

Interestingly, when we compare Russian attitudes towards the Palestinians and Russian attitudes toward their own Georgians, we see vast discrepancies and inconsistencies.



Iran Offers Discount To The West
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leader Ahmadinejad is very good at his game, so good he is brilliant.
The other day, he tipped his hand.
Ahmadinejad let out that Iran is really interested in nuclear energy.

He intends to produce nuclear energy and sell it to the world at huge discounts - even to the West.
He said: "we promise that we will produce nuclear fuel in the next five years and sell it to the West at a 50% discount."
He knows exactly what buttons to push.
He knows that he is totally protected by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaties if Iran's intensions are only for fuel and energy.

If Ahmadinejad succeeds he will not only provide for Iran to "go nuclear" but he will beat the West at their own game by providing his own alternative energy to oil and addicting the West to the reduced price. No country will be able to resist the bargain.

For some reason we continue to look at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a maniac.
Our interests would be better served if we saw him for the conniving and deeply manipulative Machiavellian personality that he is.



Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There was an attempt made to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh, prime minister of the Palestinian Authority.

Instead of making headlines, it was hardly a story. And when it was mentioned, it was buried deep or tacked on as an addendum to another story.
This was not a subtle, secret attack better left unknown. It was a shootout while the prime minister rode in his motorcade and exploded the rear vehicle which was engulfed in flames and left to burn on the street.

Why was the incident hardly covered?
Because tensions are so high and murders and kidnappings are so common between Hamas and Fatah that editors saw this story as commonplace.

Why should it have been covered?
Because the Palestinian Authority is on the verge of a civil war.
Because this attempted assassination happened 20 minutes after a joint Hamas Fatah announcement went out claiming that things were going to calm down. Because a Hamas security leader was assassinated the day before at point blank range by someone he knew very well.

This is not the fault of Israel or the CIA.
Palestinians have embraced inner conflict as a way to solve their problems.
Palestinians now kill one another with as much ease as they murder Israelis. That is really scary.



Syria, Germany and al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

An al Qaeda member is now standing trial - in Syria!
The name of the terrorist is Mohammed Haydar Zammar.
He is the person responsible for recruiting many of the 9-11 terrorists in Germany.

Zammar is German, but born in Syria. He sought refuge in Syria never expecting that one day he would be standing before a Syrian Security Court.
Zammar will definitely be convicted.

Here is why:
Syria is a major al Qaeda target because they are a Bathist, not a Muslim, state. Syria is threatened by Islamic extremists and has a serious terror problem from within.
Syria will use this trial as a tool to get in better with Germany,

The Germans will be keeping a close watch on this trial.
It was the German Foreign Ministry who made the entire event public.
Who would have thought it possible?



Finally France Is Right
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Finally. Paris is pro-actively moving towards securing their airport.

Four baggage handlers have been barred from working at Charles de Gaulle Airport, another eight airport workers are under investigation.
The four baggage handlers are suing, charging discrimination.
The workers are all Muslims of North African origin, they were all working in the airport's Secure Zone.

The baggage handlers will lose their case.
Yes, they are all Muslims from North Africa.
No, this is neither racial profiling nor discrimination.
They all have traveled to Pakistan several times a year and they are not providing satisfactory explanations as to why.
The authorities are handling things appropriately and conscientiously.

No one says one must work as a baggage handler.
But to work in an airport Secure Zone you must pass security clearance.



Russia & Israel At Odds
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Ehud Olmert is in Moscow for three days of meetings with Vladimir Putin.
The Israeli and the Russian are supposed to be allies.
But there are chasms separating the two on very important issues.

Nuclear Iran:
Israel sees a nuclear Iran as one of the most significant threats on the horizon. Russia is not at all convinced.

Arms exports:
Russian RPG-28s were the most lethal weapon that Hezbollah used against Israel. Nearly half of all Israeli army deaths were caused by this weapon.
Russia denied that the weapons were theirs but Israel captured 39 of them, some even in their original crates with the shipping invoices. Russia sent the weapons to Syria and Syria gave them to Hezbollah. One of Russia's biggest industries is weapons sales. This is not about to stop.

These issues loom so huge and are so important, that they will not be resolved.
Not in three days, not in three months, not in three meetings.



Ahmadinejad And Allah
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has just spoken to Allah.
And Allah has told Ahmadinejad that the Muslims will win out against the infidels.
Has the man gone totally mad? Not totally, just partially.
It is part of his messianic complex.

It is not unbelievable to think that Ahmadinejad communicates with Allah.
The unbelievable part is that Allah speaks back to Ahmadinejad.

Prayer is a form of conversation with God. And a basic religious concept, in all religions, is that God hears our prayers. But that's where it ends. Believers speak and God listens - but God does not answer back, at least not in words. God answers the prayers of believers through signs, through nature, through historical events. That is a cardinal point in monotheistic religious belief.

God only speaks directly to prophets and prophecy has ended.
That is what made the great Muslim prophet Mohamed so great.
That is what differentiates Jesus from all others in Christian history.

Sorry Ahmadinejad, communication with God is always one sided.




Shame On The FBI
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Washington Post came out with an alarming statistic.
Of the 12,000 people in the FBI, only 33 of them have any familiarity with Arabic.
And then, just barely.
33 out of 12,000 - shocking, but predictable.
And none of the 33 actually work in counter terror.
What's going on here?

How can you successfully fight terror when you do not understand the language, when you cannot comprehend the culture, of the terrorist?
The FBI argues that when a translator is needed, they can get one in a day.
That is not the point.
This is not about translating a document or interrogating a suspect.
This is about getting into the head of the terrorist.

You cannot successfully fight terror unless you understand the culture of terror, the language of the terrorist, the religion of the organizations.
Language, culture, religion - they are all critical in the fight against terror.

Something is rotten in the Department of Justice.



Israel's Secret Weapon
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, there are rumors swilling about that Israel is using a secret weapon.
Italian TV even ran a piece on the secret weapon.
In this case, the rumors are probably true.

The Israeli weapon is similar to a weapon the United States is working on called the DIME, the Dense Inert Metal Explosive.
The U.S. version is still in the perfection stages while it seems that Israel has already perfected their version.

What makes this explosive different from others is that it is a very intense bomb with a very small impact, an impact of only several yards.
It uses tungsten and carbon.
It is an enormously hot intensive explosion.
It is a weapon that allows you to hit your target and only your target.

So what's the big deal over this small explosive?
When terrorists hide amidst civilians, armies need to hit their enemy without hitting innocent civilians.
This time it seems Israel has hit the dime.



Nukes From Iran to Indonesia
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 13, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

According to a recent report out of Indonesia, Iran and Indonesia are going to cooperate on nuclear know-how.
That's more important than it sounds.

The Indonesian vice president will be visiting Iran and highlighted on the agenda is the subject of alternative energy, what that really means is getting nuclear energy technology.
And what that means is that Iran will be the agent bringing nuclear technology to the developing world, to the Third World.

Three things will happen:
It will drive the United States crazy.
It will make Iran one of the most important countries in the developing world.
It will unseat the United States as the leader and time-setter of the nuclear world.

That is just what Iran wants.
That is probably a major force behind Iran's atomic vision and objective.



One Lucky American
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Michael Leighton Phillips, a United States citizen with a conscience, is one lucky man.

Phillips followed his heart and went to the Palestinian Authority to volunteer - to help out.
He thought that because he was there to do good, he would be safe.
And then, in the city of Nablus, he was kidnapped.

Everyone was surprised by the kidnapping.
And that's because everyone - Phillips and local Palestinians - fell prey to the same fallacy: Just because you and members of your group would never even think of kidnapping as a way of enhancing your cause, it does not mean that others think as you do.

Terrorists will do anything to achieve their goals - up to and including kidnapping and killing and lying. They stop only if they think the action hurts their goal, not helps it.

Michael Leighton Phillips is lucky because he was freed.



Syria Is Way Off Base
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Assad of Syria thinks Israel is not strong enough to make peace right now.
The sentiment in and of itself coming from the president of Syria, is not at all surprising, so let's take a look at the actual statement.

In an interview with the BBC Assad said:
"In the Barak era we went to talks at Wye River Plantation, but Israel wasn't ready to advance the peace process because of internal problems. The decision about the peace process isn't only dependent on Israel, but also on Washington."

Now we have a problem.
Direct talks between Barak, Clinton and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al Shaara did not take place on the eastern shore of Maryland at the Wye River Plantation. They took place at another presidential retreat in West Virginia, at Shepherdstown.
Shepherdstown, Wye so what's the difference? There is a difference.
Assad had to have been briefed about face-to-face meetings with Israelis. If this basic piece of information was incorrectly transmitted, other pieces of information were probably incorrectly transmitted. Assad cannot be trusted to give a true read on Israel - historically or currently - if his intel and facts are wrong.

The Shepherdstown meetings took place during the first week of January 2000, during Ramadan. The Syrian delegation finished meetings in time to break fast.
Today Ramadan is in full swing again.
The fast might be the only relevant fact connecting then and now.



Rice Is On Track
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice's recent surprise visit to Iraq - actually surprised me.
Good for Rice that she chose to visit Arbil the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq.

Rice's visit to Kurdish Arbil demonstrated an insight and perspective unlike any I have seen in the years since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
The purpose of the visit was to lobby the Kurds to play a role in building and securing a stable Iraq.
It was a wise and long overdue diplomatic move, not to mention that Arbil is rich - very rich, in oil.

There is "history" between the Kurds and the U.S., bonds originally established by the CIA. Numerous times over the last few decades the CIA has promised to support the Kurds if only they would help overthrow Saddam. In the end, time and again, the Kurds were left high and dry.

Today the Kurds have no confidence in U.S. promises.
By coming to pay them the proper respect Condi took a major step forward in the process of confidence building and trust.
Given the proper incentive, the Kurds are the ones who can stabilize Iraq.



Oil in Israel!
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Oil in Israel - nobody ever thought it would happen.
Until now.
The recent announcement that Israel did strike oil is, however, a mixed blessing.

Ginko Oil Exploration Company is convinced that they will discover more wells near their current find at the Dead Sea.
So far, Ginko predicts that the reserves they discovered will yield 100-150 barrels per day.
Putting it all in perspective, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of oil in the world, produces 9 million barrels a day.
Comparatively, this is only a drop in the bucket.

Dead Sea oil will probably not turn Israel into a rich country or make Israel internationally indispensable.
But if this oil find allows Israel to be independent in terms of energy needs and frees Israel from relying on the good graces and high prices of sworn enemies, that's certainly good enough.



A New Computer Game
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is a hot new computer game on the market.
It's a must have for all the kids - all the Iranian kids, that is.
The objective of the game is to sink an oil tanker - a United States oil tanker.
Am I shocked? No, not shocked. Nothing could shock me in today's Iran.

There's one more little detail in this game. Not only is the objective to sink a US tanker, but to sink it in the Straits of Hormuz.

What or where is Hormuz? Good question.
Hormuz is where 2/5ths of all the oil in the world travels on its way to anywhere and everywhere.
Hormuz is probably the best protected shipping lane in the world, a disruption there would wreak havoc in the world's oil flow.
Hormuz is a symbol to Iran.

Downing a US tanker in Hormuz is a message to Iranian youth saying: We in Hormuz, are in power, not you, in the West.
This is anything but a game to Iranians.



Good News From Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Big news from Syria - and this time it is good news.
The Syrians have announced that they have unearthed a Temple dating back to the 9th century BC, that means the site dates back to the Neolithic Period.

The Temple was discovered about 450 miles north of Damascus by a joint French - Syrian archeological team.
The Temple is reported to be in excellent condition.
The most prominent elements in the Temple are the presence of the heads of bulls leading us to believe that bulls were worshipped at that time in that region.

Syria has a tremendous history.
One of the greatest museums for Western civilization is located in Syria.
I wish I could write more often about archaeological discoveries in the region instead of about katyushas and terrorists.

Alas, those lessons are lost in Syria.



Jordan's Mixed Message
By Micah Halpern

Thurssday October 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

King Abdullah of Jordan recently pardoned two Members of Parliament.
The pardoned Parliamentarians are Islamists.

One man had been convicted and sentenced for two years, the other for seven years.
The crime was glorifying Zarqawi, the head of al Qaeda in Iraq who was killed by the United States on June 7.
These two Members of Parliament had paid a visit to the Zarqawi family mourning tent and heralded him as a hero.
The charge was supporting an enemy of the state.

Convicting these two prominent Parliamentarians had sent a strong and loud message from the King to the masses in Jordan.
The message was that Al Qaeda is not welcome in Jordan.
But with the pardon the King has chosen to send a new message to the masses.

That new message frightens me.



Egypt Does Something
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Four Egyptian police and five Palestinian police were just arrested.
They nine were arrested in the same raid.

They were arrested by Egyptian authorities for smuggling and selling weapons.
The Egyptian police were handing over an arms cache to the Palestinian police when the authorities - their colleagues, swooped in and raided the drop.

This is a gargantuan step forward.
If Egypt continues to step up and actually prevent illegal arms from falling into the hands of terrorists the area will become a safer place for everyone.
Safer for Israelis, for Palestinians, for Egyptians and by extension, safer for the world.



Losing Patience With Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 2, 1006

I've Been Thinking:

Al Hayat, the London based Arabic newspaper, recently ran a piece in which it asserts that the leadership of Egypt and Jordan want to oust Hamas from power.

It seems that the Egyptians and Jordanians have lost patience with Hamas.
It seems that they see Hamas as a detriment, not as an asset, in the region.
It seems that Mubarak of Egypt and Abdullah of Jordan have come to the same conclusion independent of each other.

Egypt and Jordan have also concluded that Hamas is destabilizing the area by sponsoring terror.
They also included Iran and Syria on their lists of destabilizing forces.

Here is the big question:
If it seems obvious to the leaders of region that Hamas should be ousted,
why haven't the European Union, Russia and China come to the same realization?
Or are they just ignoring the obvious out of ulterior motives?



STANDOFF: UNIFIL VS ISRAEL
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel ... Lebanon ... UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Forces In Lebanon)- Ceasefire...
There is a major disconnect happening here.
Something significant just happened with Israel in Lebanon and it is being downplayed for fear of the potential ramifications.

This is how I put the pieces together:
Israeli forces wanted to enter Lebanon and intercept a Hezbollah unit in the small town of Marwahin.
After Israeli troops - several tanks, a bulldozer, a few other vehicles - crossed the border their path was blocked by four UN tanks manned by French soldiers.
It was a classic standoff. The situation was diffused. The Israelis went home.

But UNIFIL forces are not supposed to protect Lebanon from Israel.
UNIFIL is supposed to make certain that Hezbollah does not attack Israel and that Hezbollah does not terrorize Lebanon.
If this is how UNIFIL is acting and reacting now, what's going to happen when Hezbollah starts re-arming and gathering intel?

According to the UN mandated ceasefire Hezbollah must be stopped.
What we have here is a failure to understand the mandate.
This does not portend well for the future.



Iran Gets It All
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is good at playing the Diplomacy and Media game. And getting better.

The Iranians are close to coming to an international agreement to suspend - not stop, not destroy - their nuclear development. The caveat is that the agreement must be secret so that it does not appear as if they, Iran, were intimidated and forced to back down by the enemies of Islam.

Now Russia has announced that they will deliver the nuclear fuel necessary for Iran's nuclear reactors starting in March of 2007. As it is Russian contractors are already building two nuclear power plants in Iran. And guess what, the Iranians are not happy with the construction timetable, they want the reactor finished more quickly.

What this all means is that the Iranians get everything they want and even more.
If they are good at hiding things, and I think they are, Iran can and will continue to secretly develop a nuclear program with fuel that is better than anything they could possibly process on their own.

They are good. Really good.



Lebanon Is A Mess
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Southern Lebanon is still a mess and that's the way it will remain for a long, long while.

Here's why:
Neither the UN forces, known as UN Interim Forces In Lebanon (UNIFIL), nor the Lebanese army will confront Hezbollah. No way, no how.
Israel will not totally withdraw from Lebanon until there is a clear understanding of the rules of engagement. No way, no how.

Here's the confusion:
The UN sees itself as a police force which means that they can only shoot when shot upon. The UN sees its role as protecting Lebanon from Israel.
Israel reads UN Security Council Resolution 1701 to mean that UNIFIL and Lebanese forces will disarm and control Hezbollah. Israel also reads the resolution as allowing them to respond within Lebanon when threatened.

Here's what it says in the text of the cease fire:
The purpose of the International Force and the Lebanese army in Southern Lebanon is to protect Lebanon from Hezbollah and make certain Hezbollah does not threaten Israel.

Seems pretty clear to me.



What Islam Lacks Most
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is considered to be one of the most liberal of all Arab states.
Egypt is the country the West carefully watches to measure the winds of liberalization and change.
Egypt just banned three leading European papers - two French and one German.

Why? Because of the way they depicted Islam and Mohammed.
What? They described Islam as being "spread by the sword."
Here is the problem: A major part of the history of Islam involves "being spread by the sword."

Not to see Islam for what it is, is to be blind and self-deceived.
Not to accept Islam for what it is, is even more dangerous.
Most dangerous of all is to deny what Islam teaches and to prevent others from learning about it.

For a society to grow, it must be self-critical.
Egypt has just provided us with another glaring example of what is most lacking in Islam today.



Iran Denies Holocaust to Deny Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Did anyone else notice that Ahmadinejad often spoke about Israel, but never mentioned it by name?
He called it the Zionist entity.
He referred to Israelis as Zionists.
He never said Israel.

And yet - the rationale for Ahmadinejad's rejection of the Holocaust and for his revision of WWII history is based on his rejection of - you got it, Israel.

Ahmadinejad's logic works like this: If there was no Holocaust then there is no justification for Israel. If there is no justification for Israel then the very existence of Israel is a moral travesty. So why mention it? Of course, he's wrong.

First, there was a plan by Hitler's Germany to murder all the Jews.
Second, Israel was already on the path towards creation pre - Holocaust, neither the Holocaust nor the UN created it.
But it all fits very nicely into Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theory.
He truly believes that the West is in cahoots against Islam.



Egypt And The Nuke
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League recently met and paved the way for all members to develop nuclear energy - if they so decide.
Egypt is on board. Egypt wants to expand its nuclear technology.

Egypt already has a small experimental nuclear reactor. Now the Egyptians want to explore ways of using nuclear energy as a clean and inexpensive way to power their country's electricity grid.
The United States Ambassador to Egypt gave his blessing to the endeavor. He said that it is United States policy is to help countries who have signed on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaties to develop nuclear energy in a clean and safe way. So far, so good.

Here's where it gets tricky.
The Treaties require total transparency. Last year the UN nuclear watchdog raised some issues about the Egyptian reactor.
On the one hand, Egypt is not Iran. On the other hand, Egypt is not a democracy.
This path to nuclear development is inevitable, there is no turning back.
Our job is to guide the process and secure the end product.



The Pope's Calculated Move
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

We've heard that the Pope was upset even shocked at the Muslim response to his statements. Personally, I don't believe it.

The Pope's intention was as to talk about the incompatibility of war and faith.
Of course he was misunderstood by followers of Islam, but that really has nothing to do with the issues at hand.
The Pope knew he was playing with fire and he did it for a reason.

The Pope is the only real numerical parity to Islam.
The Pope and the Catholic Church are the only possible check to Islam in the world. They both number close to a billion and a half adherents. The Pope is laying the foundation to try to confront radical Islam. His intention was to inform Catholic leaders and the Catholic masses that they must come to understand the real dangers of Islam, to understand how Islam endangers Christians and Christian property throughout the world.

This was a calculated move to draw out the Muslims.
The Pope needed to see if Islam is a religion of peace or a religion of destruction. Will Muslims riot and destroy or will they come and discuss their differences.



Ahmadinejad's is Just Wrong
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

If it was not obvious yesterday, it should be obvious today.
Ahmadinejad is not a raving lunatic.
His values are just diametrically antithetical to ours, to our Western thinking.

Ahmadinejad's presentation before the UN and the interviews he gave around town were all consistent in theme, they revealed his real agenda.
Ahmadinejad's main objective is to reorganize the world and in the new order of things, Iran and Ahmadinejad are at the top.
Ahmadinejad's hope is to reshape the Security Council.
Ahmadinejad thinks the world is held captive by the US and in his eyes there is an unfair bias toward Israel. He does not understand why the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslim world are paying the price for the Holocaust.

But back to the real world: If the world were controlled by Muslim Iran we would be taking one giant step back - centuries back. It would be farewell to equality, women's rights, minority rights and justice.

The Holocaust canard is part of the larger conspiracy in the Middle East.
The reality is that no one gave Israel to the Jews, Israel is a country born out of war. Arabs and Muslims tried to wipe the Jews out but failed. The State of Israel exists because of might and arms and destiny, it was not created by sleight of hand. Israel exists because the Arabs could not destroy it.

Israel's existence is the failure of the Arab and Muslim world - do not blame that on the Jews.



Little Hope For Palestinian Unity Government
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

People are so excited about the Palestinians and their unity government.
The Europeans have already begun to alter their approach to the Palestinians - even before the government is in place.

I'm here to let a little air out of the euphoria balloon.
There is very little chance that a Palestinian unity government that includes Hamas - which is exactly the point - will meet the European Quartet's basic conditions for accepting Hamas as a legitimate government.

It is very simple.
Hamas cannot and will never accept Israel. They will not allow any document or any public proclamation with their name on it that permits Fatah and Abbas to white wash the issue. No matter how it is phrased or finessed, Hamas will insist that the Palestinian government not accept Israel's right to exist.

Hamas is not a political party.
Hamas is an ideology and hence they will not compromise in order to advance their political strength.
The only hope for the Palestinian Authority is ousting Hamas.



Muslims versus The Pope
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

So Muslims are up in arms again.
They are protesting and shouting and the object of their rage now is - the Pope.
They are fuming because the Pope quoted a 14th century religious treatise that argues the values of Islam and Christianity.

The book the Pope chose is a pseudo conversation between Byzantine Christian Emperor Manuel Paleologos II and a Persian scholar.
Quoting the work the Pope read: "The emperor comes to speak about the issue of Jihad, holy war."
"He said, I quote, 'Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached.' "

Convert or die is an essential dimension of Islam.
Muslim history and teachings are replete with examples of this doctrine.
Yet, Muslim furor is raging from England to Turkey to Gaza to Egypt to Lebanon.

Once again, my thesis is proved: The element most lacking in Islam today is the capacity for self criticism and honest evaluation.



Muslims Want to Control The Media
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 16, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

57 Muslim countries met on Wednesday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
They are the members of the Organization of Islamic Conference, the OIC.

The OIC met to debate various issues and pass important resolutions.
The biggest issue they wanted to confront was the issue of the media.
The OIC is convinced that their member nations are downtrodden, that they are abused by the media.

One suggestion was that Muslims world over purchase Western media outlets so as to better portray themselves in the Western world.
Another suggestion was to respect and honor the free press.
The Iranian suggestion was to create an organization of Muslim journalists from every country to help one another and to bind together.
Obviously, three very different solutions to one perceived problem.

Here's my problem with their solutions:
From my point of view the Muslim media is very savvy.
From my point of view, the Muslim media far outstrips Western media in manufacturing and manipulating situations, the Israeli war with Hezbollah is the perfect most recent example.

The grass, I guess, is always greener.



Iran Wants to Lead the World
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Ahmadinejad wants to make a play to be the leader of the world.
Yes, of the world,
His plan is to bind all the developing countries and all the Muslim countries tightly together and then - take charge.

Ahmadinejad's major ally plot in this is Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.
Ahmadinejad and Chavez have had enough of the United States and the unfair influence the U.S. has on world affairs.
They think that they could run things much better - if only given the chance.
That is part of the pitch these men will put before the United Nations.

During the Non-Alignment Movement convention taking place in Cuba, Chavez said that he will help defend Iran against the U.S. and the rest of the West.
Just wait and see, he taunted.

The Non-Alignment Movement was aptly named and created to provide an outlet for those countries not aligned with the United States or with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The Non-Alignment Movement composes 55-60% of the United Nations and a significant part of their raison d'etre is to fight Western colonialism and Zionism.
That explains why Iran and Venezuela are floating their ideas in Cuba before they propose them to the UN General Assembly.

OK. We'll wait and we'll see.
This should be interesting.



Syria Is Both A Sponsor & Target of Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 13, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The United States Embassy in Damascus was bombed.
The United States Embassy in Damascus was attacked by terrorists.
Damascus, Syria?
Doesn't Syria sponsor terror, why would Damascus be victim to terrorist attacks?

Here's why:
Syrian President Bashar Assad is petrified of terror from within his own country. Assad is afraid that Fundamentalists want to overthrow his Bathist regime, and rightfully so. That's why he sponsors terror - by becoming a player Assad hopes to keep the bad boys on his side. That's why Syria sponsors terror in Lebanon, as a means to achieve Syria's own goals.

This attack was definitely the work of Islamic terrorists.
It was an attack against the United States.
It was just as much an attack against Syrian President Assad.

Syria sponsors Islamic terror and Syria is the target of Islamic terror.
This is not ironic.
This is the way Islamic Fundamentalist terrorists play their game.



Hezbollah Is Training Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is now a strong link between Hezbollah and Hamas.
Hezbollah is training Hamas in the art and tactics of guerrilla warfare.
Hezbollah is training Hamas in the strategies of missile strikes.

The exercises have been going on for a few weeks in Sinai Desert camps. Terrorist training camps, a la al Qaeda training camps.

Israel is aware - but can do nothing about it. Israel can't bomb the camps, they are in Egypt. So they informed Egypt and now Egypt is investigating and will probably make arrests and destroy the camps this coming week.
By then it will be too late.

Most of the essential information and training will already have been passed on. Most of the senior people will be long gone before the Egyptian raid.
The information and the training will have reached Gaza, the new experts will have begun teaching new recruits and on and on it will go.

This could have been nipped in the bud.
Instead, the decision was made to go the diplomatic route.
It was a decision that, in the end, will hurt both Egypt and Israel.



Iran's Bravado
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I spend a lot of time monitoring local Arabic press - including the Iranian press. Some governments and terror groups supply the media with press releases and up-dates and send out their own spin.

Here are several items from this past week that the Iranians are proud of:
They discovered a cure for AIDS
They test flew a new jet comparable to the new F-18
They tested long range missile and other missiles

The Iranians term this new wave of accomplishments the "Blow of Zolfaqar."
Zolfagar was the name of the sword used by Ali who was the founder of Shiite Islam and the true successor of Mohammed.

Iran wants to show their own people how advanced they are and how capable they are and how they are improving the status of Muslims despite the arms embargo that has been placed on them for all these years.

They are saying that Iran continues to contribute and build and defend its honor.
They need to prove themselves to their own people - even with all their bravado.



The New Nuclear Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Saturday Sept. 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League just announced that they intend to:
develop "and use nuclear energy peacefully."
Amir Moussa the Secretary General of the Arab League made the announcement saying that they decided to:
"use the right granted them" as signers of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

That is what they said.
This what they mean:
* It is a classic Arab statement of challenge.
* They are challenging Iran - which is not a member of the Arab League.
* If Iran (a Shiite Nation) can have nuclear energy then we (the Sunnis) must have nuclear energy.
* It is a statement of Arab honor taunting the US and their anti-nuclear stance.
* Iran has gotten such positive play in the Arab and Muslim world by their defiance of the United States that the Arab League will do the same hoping for the same benefits on the "street".

The reality is that only Saudi Arabia and Egypt would want to develop the nuclear option at this stage and use it as a natural check against Iran.



The New Al Qaeda Video
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

About: the al Jazera broadcast of Osama bin Ladin and the 9-11 terrorists

The broadcast is:
An al Qaeda media ploy to honor THEIR work on 9-11
A classic style Islamic message - connecting the past to the future and present
Meant to threaten and terrorize the United States
Meant to tell the Muslim world that Osama is still a major player who can still, just by presenting his image, threaten the West

More than anything else - the video shows just how easy it is for al Qaeda to produce a piece and send a message to their world of adherents.

Al Qaeda videos were, until now, aimed only at adherents, not the West.
This video is aimed at adherents, but ALSO, importantly, for us, for the West. They are clearly fighting a two front media war, on one front is the Muslim world and on the second front is the Western world.



Nasrallah Was No Victor
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

An interview with Hassan Nasrallah was just published in as Safir, the Lebanese daily and the Hezbollah leader had some interesting things to say.

Nasrallah claimed that the whereabouts of his hide out and bunker was kept so secret that not even he knows where it is.
He relates how he went up and down so many stairs he lost his bearings.
The interview confirms that the bunker was one of the key communication centers for Hezbollah during the war. Nasrallah was able to monitor all the news from inside the bunker including broadcasts from Israel and the United States.

The interviewers recorded that Nasrallah, the victor, showed signs of victory, but also signs of "distress, sadness and depression." A "heavy load" they called it.

Nasrallah's interviewers are right. Nasrallah does carry a heavy load because Nasrallah was not victorious, he was defeated. His only victory was that his bunker was not hit and that he remains hidden.

Now Nasrallah is forced to live like Arafat - never sleeping in the same bed twice.



The British Are Fighting
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

British counter terrorism personnel have said that they are currently running at least 70 investigations.
That means they are investigating thousands of people.
This week-end alone they conducted numerous raids.

They are working hard at arresting more potential terrorists.
They are casting their nets and catching some pretty important fish.
They are leaning on people involved in recruitment and training camps.
They are shutting down some valued terrorist assets.

Most of the first intel comes from hot tips.
Then comes finding and bribing informants.
Sometimes they can place their own agents inside terror networks, but that takes much longer so paid informants are a better bet.

Unfortunately, England has learned the hard way. They now realize that they must invest enormous sums of time and money in order to infiltrate terror cells and then break them up.

Britain is looking for homegrown terrorists.
Right now, that's the way to go.



Al Qaeda In Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Another one bites the dust.
Al Saedi also known as Abu Humam also known as Abu Rana was captured by United Staes forces in Iraq.
He was # 2 in al Qaeda's Iraq division, directly under Al Masri.

Al Saedi was responsible for numerous attacks and directly in charge of assassination squads and policemen.
When discovered, he was hiding among civilians, but US forces were able to capture him alive without any injury to women or children.

Catching big fish like Al Saedi forces al Qaeda to reorganize.
Catching big fish allows for middle-level leadership to emerge and rise to the top.

The United States is slowly and surely chipping away at the leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq.
But capturing leaders is not enough to signal an end to terror.
Knocking out leadership is the first crucial step, then there is still an entire infrastructure to disorganize, demoralize and ultimately demolish.



Forcing Iran Into Transparency
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just twisted us, the United States, around their proverbial finger.
Iran succeeded because the United States failed.

The United States failed to adequately understand the Iranian style of international diplomacy.
Iran undercut the United States by proposing a diplomatic alternative to sanctions.
Iran proposed exactly what the rest of the world wanted from the very outset.

Iran convinced European Union and Western diplomats that diplomacy will work.
Iran has won. Now even the EU has declared that it is time to negotiate with Iran on the nuclear issue.
Now everyone is chiming in, saying that it is time for negotiations.
British Foreign Minister Margaret Becket said, "Our goal remains a negotiated solution on the basis of far-reaching proposals."
Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja, said that "this is not the time or place for sanctions." "For the EU, diplomacy remains the No. 1 way forward." This from the country that holds the rotating presidency of the EU.

We are loosing to Iran because we do not understand their game.
The only way to win is to learn Iran's rules and then beat them at their own game.
We need to force Iran into a diplomatic dialogue and use that dialogue to force Iran into transparency.



Status Quo Not Civil War
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

68 dead in yesterday's rash of coordinated terror in Iraq.
48 killed in inter-group conflicts in Baghdad.
Most of the attacks were on Shiites - in Shiite centers, in Shiite communities even in a Shiite medical clinic.

What's behind this spate of violence in Iraq?
The internal struggle between Shiites and Sunnis.

Sunnis believe the Shiites are operating death squads so they are striking out.
Shiites believe that the Sunnis are attacking their holy sites and that they are trying to intimidate the masses and influence the political landscape in order to improve their standing. Shiites are afraid to go to their mosques out of fear that the mosque will be attacked.

These tensions have existed for hundreds of years. They will not disappear with the passing of a magic wand.
They are only front and center and brought to our attention now because now is when the United States is in Iraq.
If the United States were not in Iraq now the Western world would neither know nor care that Muslims are killing Muslims.

There are great tensions in Iraq between sects - but it is not a civil war.
It is the status quo.



Where Was The Rage?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Something has been bothering me ever since the two Fox News journalists were kidnapped. Now that they are free, I will speak my mind.

Where was the rage?
Where was the outcry?
Where was the public pressure to save the lives of colleagues?
Certainly, there were behind-closed-doors negotiations, but other than covering the "event", the media by and large kept silent. I spoke of the kidnapping at almost every media opportunity. I felt as if I was a lone voice.

There comes a time when a person has to take a stand against evil. This was that moment for every journalist.

I used to frequent the very place where the kidnapping occurred. Many journalists have. I went assuming that I was safe because I was a journalist, because my absence would be noticed, because the militant powers-that-be would not want to pick a fight with the greater Western media.

Unfortunately, the evidence proves otherwise.



Jittery Airline Travel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

What good does it do for air travel if the stricter, more precautionary, anti-terror measures implemented on some flights are not implemented on all flights?

There have been a series of serious terror scares in the air ever since the plan to explode 10 trans-Atlantic flights was uncovered and thwarted.
People - crews and passengers alike - are jittery.

A Northwestern flight from Minnesota to Amsterdam to India was turned back over Germany because of an unruly family.
Turns out they were only rude, not a serious threat.

A flight from London to DC was forced down in an emergency landing at Boston's Logan airport because a woman on board had Vaseline, matches and a screwdriver - all contraband items since the London scare.
How did she get on a trans-Atlantic plane with so many illegal items so soon after a threat to hijack 10 trans-Atlantic planes?
She boarded the plane in Abu Dhabi.
Sadly, the new boarding restrictions do not apply in Abu Dhabi.
Turns out the female passenger was only claustrophobic, not a serious threat.

BUT, she could just have easily boarded with a bomb in Abu Dhabi, disembarked in London and let the plane continue onto to DC.
Think about it.



From War To War
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 26, 2006

I"ve Been Thinking:

From War to War.
One war is over, another is approaching.

That's Israel's world view for right now. It's the only attitude Israel can adopt, given their situation, their facts on the ground. The threats. Hezbollah. Iran.

Just before Israel launched into the War in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah the Israeli Military Chief of Staff appointed a "campaign manager."

It's the Israeli military equivalent of an overall conductor or orchestra leader.

The person tapped for the position is Eliezer Shekedy, the current head of the air-force.

His job is to manage all future campaigns against countries that do not border Israel. Simply put, that means Iran.

His job is to coordinate all Israeli forces necessary for the campaign - intel, land, air and sea.
His job is to work out a serious attack and defense plan.

His job is to assess the real risk, determine how to preemptively strike Iran and think through the possible repercussions.

Politicians decide when and if to strike.
The military must be ready with plans drawn up, waiting in the drawer.

The threat to Israel from Iran is real and present.



Assad Does Not Want UN Patrols
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

President Bashar Assad of Syria went on Dubai TV on Wednesday to explain his thoughts on a UN force monitoring the Syrian border with Lebanon.
He thinks it's a bad idea, a very bad idea.

He said: "First, this means creating hostile conditions between Syria and Lebanon."
What an understatement. There are already hostile conditions and Syria in general has had free reign to be as hostile as it wants. Patrolling and monitoring the border will only give more protection and independence to Lebanon.

He said: "Second, it is a hostile move toward Syria and naturally it will create problems."
That is correct. It will force Syria to let go of Lebanon. To this very day Syria still does not have an embassy in Lebanon. The Syrians view Lebanon as a province, not as an independent state. They think Lebanon is theirs to exploit.

Having a real border can only benefit Lebanon.
Having a real border will force Syria to re-evaluate and re-vamp their relationship with Lebanon.
Having a real border may also prevent Syria from giving missiles to Hezbollah.
In this case, what is good for the goose is also good for the gander.



Now Watch August 23
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

August 22nd has come and gone.
Thankfully, this day will go down in history for being truly unremarkable.
Why should it have been anything else?
It corresponds to the 27th day of the Arabic month of Rajab, and Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been sending out ominous warnings that this day was coming.

Today is another pretty important date in the Islamic calendar.
This Arabic date dovetails August 22nd into one of the most significant events of Muslim history.
It was on this day that Muslim believers took back their holy city from outsiders, from the Christians. It was on this day, the 28th of Rajab 1187 that the Crusaders fell to Saladin in Jerusalem.

The metaphor is perfect.
NY and DC and LA be on alert. The modern-day Saladin (Ahmadinejad) is coming to free the modern-day Jerusalems (NY, DC, LA) and cast off the modern-day Crusaders (the West).
We've been warned.



Syria Is Upset
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Syria boycotted Sunday's Arab League meeting in Cairo.

Why?
Syria is upset - very upset because senior Arab leadership chose to be at best silent, at worst critical, even after Syria expressly asked them to come out in support of Hezbollah's conflict with Israel.

From the outset of the conflict there has been serious criticism from Sunni leaders directed at Hezbollah and those who supported Hezbollah i.e. Syria and Iran.

Recently major US news agencies including The New York Times said that those early critics retracted their critical comments.
However, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal not once but twice called the Hezbollah attack on Israel "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible."
Who showed supported for the Saudi statement?
Egypt. Jordan. Kuwait. Iraq. The United Arab Emirates. Bahrain.

Arab unity is a myth.
Support for Hezbollah is minimal.
No doubt about it.



Hezbollah & PR
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah is doling out cash - wads, bunches and bundles of cash.
Hezbollah is doling out $12,000 US for each house that was destroyed.
Hezbollah estimates that 15,000 homes were destroyed in the conflict.
$200, 000, 000, that's right, two hundred million US dollars.

The monies are coming from Iran.

The good will and the political gains this gesture buys far surpasses the monetary value.

Hezbollah is now seen as The Great Savior, not only in Lebanon but throughout the Arab and Muslim world.

We all knew that Hezbollah planned to claim victory and aid in the rebuilding. But nobody planned a counter offensive.
Nobody thought to plan for a way to counter a proud and renowned terrorist organization that is gaining in popularity across the world.

Hezbollah had a PR plan.
Where are the strategists who should have planned a media counter attack against Hezbollah?

Shame on you, Israel. Shame on you, the West.



Hollywood Supports Israel
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The actor Adam Sandler has just donated $100,000 and 400 play stations to help Israeli kids whose lives have been marred by Hezbollah this summer.
Sandler is only one of many Hollywood figures to come out in support of Israel.
Almost 100 Hollywood biggees have signed a letter in support of Israel.

Sylvester Stallone ... James Woods ... Bruce Willis ... Nicole Kidman ... Michael Douglas ... they're not even all Jewish.

So what's the big deal?

Historically, Hollywood, especially Jewish Hollywood, has been critical of Israel. Rather than supporting Israel the big names have taken out ads and written editorials criticizing Israel.

So how do you explain what is going on now?

Hezbollah is seen across America as a terror organization.

Just about every American believes that Hezbollah started this crisis by crossing the Lebanese border into Israel and capturing two Israeli soldiers.

Even Arab countries have criticized Hezbollah.
Most importantly, Israel vs Hezbollah is a cross-party issue.
This is not a case of Republican policy vs Democratic ideals.

And Hollywood is rallying to the cause.



Iran Claims Hezbollah Won
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

For the Western world, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
For the Arab and Moslem world, truth is in the eye of the believer.

In the eyes of Shiites - especially Iran, Hezbollah won the conflict with Israel.
Hezbollah won because they are still standing.
Hezbollah won because some of the battles with Israel took hours and even days.

There is no way of better showing the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah than by quoting the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.
In an interview with Al Manar, Hezbollah TV, Khamenei praised Hezbollah and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
He said: "Your unprecedented holy war and steadfastness are beyond the limits of my description. It's a divine victory. It is a victory of Islam."

Lowest estimates say that Hezbollah had 1500 fighters.
That means that a small cadre of Hezbollah fighters held their own against the great Israeli Army.
When you look at it that way, when that is the only way you look at it, it is a victory.



Explosives And Shoes
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Homeland Security has just come clean, and it is a serious blow to the public's understanding of security.
Homeland Security has just admitted that their x-rays do not pick up explosives in shoes and yet, it is policy to scan all shoes of people boarding planes.

The only way to test for most standard explosives is swabbing and then running the swab through a spectrometer.
The spectrometers used at airports throughout the United States do not detect liquid explosives especially peroxide based explosives - the explosive de jour for al Qaeda.

So should we continue to take off our shoes?
Yes we should.
Airport security should swab our shoes and give a spritz from an aerosol can and use any and all other available detection materials.
Airport security should continue to make certain that there are no liquid explosives in, on or around the bags or the people going on planes.

This is not a game.
Citizens of the United States are willing to wait in long security lines in airports and elsewhere, but only if authorities are actually actively making America safer.

Taking off shoes for no reason - that just smells bad.



It Was Al Qaeda, No Doubt
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Some people still need more convincing that al Qaeda was behind the terror plot to hijack and blow up 10 planes departing from London.
I have no doubts about it.
The plot was taken directly out of the al Qaeda playbook.

Here is how I know:
In the mid 1990's al Qaeda attempted to put this same plan into action.
Peroxide based liquid bomb explosives have become an al Qaeda signature, they were used in the successful bombing of the London underground and in the attempted London plot and in other al Qaeda operations.
Operatives had no idea of who their colleagues-in-terror were which is an al Qaeda method of operation.
Simultaneous plane bombings is exactly the al Qaeda style.
This was a highly planned and grandiose style of attack, a la al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda goes for the big numbers, and this operation would have resulted in the deaths of about 3,000 innocent people.
This attack was scheduled to fall between two important al Qaeda anniversaries, 7-7 and 9-11.
Large sums of monies and extensive training went into this plan, a sophistication only al Qaeda has.
Co-ordination of this attack came out of Pakistan and a known al Qaeda leader, Rashid Rauf, was involved.

It was an al Qaeda operation.



Terror and Cell Phones
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 13, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

What would you think if you were Law Enforcement in Michigan and found 3 young men from Texas of Arab descent with over a 1000 cell phones in their van?

Michigan police think that these 3 Arabs are a terror risk.
Ohio police arrested 2 young men of Arab descent just days earlier after discovering that they had over 700 cell phones.

Ohio has charged the men with felonies - including money laundering in support of terrorism and soliciting or providing support for acts of terrorism and misdemeanor falsification.
Michigan police believe that their young men were intending to blow up a bridge in the area.

What's the link between cell phones and terror? Why the panic?
The young men all claim that they are going to resell the phones for profit.
But Authorities believe that the phone chips are tools of terror.
Authorities believe these phone chips were intended for use as detonators for bombs and other nefarious acts.
Also the type of cell phone they found, the Trac fones, are untraceable and often used by terrorists.

There is little doubt that there are some very dangerous people out there.
These people are resourceful and we need to be vigilant.
We need to stop potential terrorists before they become perpetrators of terror.



The Terror Threat
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Al Qaeda terror threat: What is really happening?

This terrorist plan was massive, but not original.
This plan comes straight out of the al Qaeda play book.
Al Qaeda actually has a training manual that is a set of 3 CDs

Al Qaeda has been planning to hijack planes to be used as tools of terror dating back to the 1990's (Ramzi Yousef)
The explosives intended for this attack were very similar to the materials used in the 7/7 attack and the thwarted 7/21 plot in London.

The explosives were liquid, peroxide based explosives, the stuff anyone can buy in a local pharmacy.
The expertise comes in destabilizing the materials and then carrying them to the point of attack. It requires a home chemistry lab that looks a lot like something used for home-made hooch, only with serious refrigeration.
Anyone who watches CSI can guess how to detect peroxide based bombs -detection kits include aerosol sprays, swabs and pen scanners. These can easily be used in airports.

It is simple - and now essential - to check all liquids.
We must monitor the extremists Muslim religious sermonizers most particularly in England & France & Belgium. Many terrorists come frequent the same mosques.



Terror In The Air
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 11, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

There is no such thing as a sleeper cell.
Terrorists are always planning, readjusting targets and realigning objectives.
Calling them sleeper cells lulls us, their intended victims, into a false calm.

This latest terror threat should not surprise anyone.
The fact that these terrorists were homegrown should not surprise anyone.
This is definitely an al Qaeda operation.
This is how al Qaeda is now operating - using operatives on home turf.

A plan that included at least 24 people and at least 10 transatlantic airplanes is another example of the advanced, sophisticated war we are fighting.
Liquids are the easiest explosive tool to bring on an airplane.
The new TSA rules regarding liquids are an inconvenience that will better secure our planes.
Drinks are already required to be sampled - even children's drinks - in other highly secure environments.

The best way to prevent terror is to catch the terrorists before they get to the airport as they did in London.
Once they are in the airport, if detected, the terrorists can always go to Plan B.



Media Bias & Propaganda
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, August 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

This is a media war.
The media has been involved in wars for a very long time. During WWI the media fabricated atrocity stories. During WWII true life atrocity stories were not believed because of the untruths of the previous War.

For an example, look at Reuters:
Reuters released and has just removed from their files two doctored photo showing the atrocities of the Middle East Conflict. The photos were on the website for media outlets to use. One was a picture of Southern Beirut immediately after Israel had bombed. The other was of an Israeli fighter jet dropping flares but doctored to appear as if it was dropping bombs.

Clear cases of cut and paste, of photo shop and clone programming.
The photographer, Adnan Hajj, was one of the Reuters photographers who photographed the supposed atrocities at Qana. Reuters has suspended him.

Phil Commes, the BBC photo editor, actually said "One man's color balancing is another man's grounds for dismissal."

We the press must be very cautious.
We cannot play into the games of the propagandists.
There is nothing wrong with having an opinion, but facts are facts - they are not open to distortion or fabrication.
War is atrocious enough, it needs no embellishment.



From Russia To Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Fact: most of the damage that Hezbollah has inflicted on IDF forces in Southern Lebanon has come from anti-tank missiles.

Fact: Hezbollah is using the most modern anti-tank missile there is. This missile has even succeeded in disabling and penetrating the Israeli Merkahva Mark-2 tank which is considered one of the safest tanks in the world.

Fact: the weapon Hezbollah is using is a shoulder mounted RPG, a Rocket Propelled Grenade, the RPG-29.

Fact: the RPG-29 is made in Russia, shipped to Syria and delivered to Hezbollah.

Fact: Russia was insulted when asked if the missile was theirs and demanded to see the remains. After getting the tail fin they said they could not determine if it was theirs without knowing the serial number.

Fact: Russia is to blame for these deaths. Years ago they were warned that their weapons were going to Hezbollah and being used to hurt Israel and the Israeli army. Russia should assume responsibility, pressure should be brought upon them to accept responsibility.



An Ugly Double Standard
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Fadi Jamma was 60 years old. Samira her older daughter was 33. Sultana the younger daughter was 31. They were killed by rocket fire.

Fadi Jamma, Samira and Sultana were Arabs. They were Bedouins. They lived in al Aramish. Al Aramish is in Israel.
This family was destroyed when a Hezbollah rocket landed in their yard.

Almost no international news agency carried their story - Reuters has one citation. Nothing else, no where else.
Why?
Sultana was engaged to be married. Their home was open to Muslims, Christians, Druze and Jews.
Why are the lives and tragic deaths of these three women not newsworthy?

Because it is only interesting when Israel kills innocent people.
Because it is only heart wrenching when Israel kills families.
Because it is only news when Israel is responsible.
Because there is a double standard in the human interest coverage of this war.

Take note - when the dust clears editors and producers should be held accountable for the stories they covered and for the stories they didn't cover.



Saudis Stop Hezbollah Rally
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Are Muslims becoming more supportive of Hezbollah today, almost three weeks into the war with Israel, than they were at the beginning of the conflict?

Some reports are surfacing saying that the Muslim attitude towards Hezbollah has softened.
But I don't think it is a pervasive attitude.

Here is an example:
Israeli flags are regularly burned at rallies in Muslim countries.
It is condoned, it is accepted, it is de rigueur.
Yesterday in Saudi Arabia, in the predominantly Shiite region of al Qatif, there was a peaceful demonstration.
It was the third protest of its kind.
Yellow Hezbollah flags were waved, pictures of Nasrallah the leader of Hezbollah were raised and, of course, Israeli flags were burned.

And then police broke up the demonstration.
Why?
Because support for the Shiite Hezbollah is not deemed appropriate in the Sunni Saudi Kingdom.



Israel Is Winding Down
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's offensive is winding down.
Another stage will begin in the next few days.

Condi Rice has been making it known that the end is in sight.
Why?
She is pressuring the nations of the world to start volunteering the soldiers necessary to create an international force to step in when Israel steps out.

Israel has begun to achieve the goals that were set out at the beginning of the conflict.
Israel is emasculating Hezbollah.
Almost all of Hezbollah's fire power has been reduced.
Most Hezbollah fighters have either been wounded or killed.
Hezbollah will not be permitted to threaten Israel's northern border again.
But until that international force is in place, Israel will not leave.

When the international force is ready and deployed then Israel will withdraw from Lebanon and begin the process of scaling back and mopping.
Israel will hand the region over to a group charged with the responsibility of helping Lebanon keep Hezbollah from re-arming.
That is the agenda of the international force, it is what Israel and the United States want, it is the short term solution.

In the long term ... only time will tell.



Hezbollah's Media War
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah is not only waging a military war against Israel, Hezbollah is waging a media war against Israel.

For Hezbollah the media war has two equally important fronts:
the Western world
the Arab and Muslim world

The stage was set with the Israeli attack on the city of Qana.
Hezbollah rewrote the script turning the awful true-life reality of an air strike into Hezbollywood, an even more devastating display of staged carnage and destruction including close-up shots of already dead children.

For the Western world the staged incident was intended as a vehicle to turn the tide of Western support away from Israel and towards Hezbollah. It was supposed to be a way to apply pressure on the world to stop Israel's assault.

For the Arab and Muslim world it was a horrifying example of the evil of Israel and was intended as a vehicle to unify the Arab and Muslim world, to give them purpose, meaning and direction, to back Hezbollah against Israel, the US and the West.

We must be aware of the multiple levels of the Hezbollah agenda.
To Hezbollah's dismay, Israel is doing well in the media war.
Why? Because Israel has the upper hand on the moral front - and the moral front is something Hezbollah cares nothing about.



Staging Qana?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is something very rotten going on in Qana.
At first glance it appeared that Israel targeted and hit a residential area because it was an area Hezbollah was using to launch its rockets.
At first glance it appeared that there were many civilian deaths, civilians used by Hezbollah as shields against reprisal attacks.

But on second glance, a different picture is emerging. Over the past few days I have seen more and more convincing argumentation that the atrocity at Qana was a well choreographed media event. It's even being called Hezbollywood.

When you look at all the pictures and their time logs a series of questions emerge. Discrepancies are so blatant that one must question whether the entire event was staged. Yes, Israel hit Qana. But from the video footage we have the building collapsed a full 8 hours after it was hit.

Most intriguing are shots of a medic carrying a child and putting her in an ambulance - and doing it again, 3 hours later. He's wearing a green helmet, next time he isn't. He has glasses, he doesn't. He has on a reflective vest then he doesn't, yes latex gloves, no latex gloves. The victim remains unchanged.

One of the children clearly has rigor mortis. With one hand another medic holds the child up. The child's body is stiff and straight. According to medical experts that kind of rigor happens only 12-24 hours after death. And there is almost no blood, no screams no cries, no survivors. Strange for that to happen when a building collapses.

The more I look, the more questions I ask.



Tame UN Statement on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 31, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Security Council issued a statement about Israel's bombing in Qana, Lebanon that killed 56 people.

"The Security Council expresses its extreme shock and distress at the shelling by the Israeli Defense Forces of a residential building in Qana, in southern Lebanon, which has caused the killing of dozens of civilians, mostly children, and injured many others."
"The Security Council expresses its concern at the threat of escalation of violence with further grave consequences for the humanitarian situation, calls for an end to violence, and underscores the urgency of securing a lasting, permanent and sustainable ceasefire."

This is the world of diplomacy.
Terms are important.
The Security Council used the words "concern" "shock" "distress."
But they do not condemn.

In diplomacy, nuance speaks volumes.
This specific choice of wording is a clear indication that the parties on the Security Council understand that despite pressure from certain corners, Israel is fighting an impossible battle against Hezbollah.

The Security Council statement was remarkably tame.
What could have been a scathing condemnation was a stern statement of shock.
Big difference.



Why Israel Hits Civilian Sites
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The answer is obvious. Still, it must be asked and answered.
Why does Israel hit civilian and UN targets?
Because Hezbollah is there. Hezbollah is there to seek refuge from Israel's bombs, to shoot and to hide. And where Hezbollah is, Israel goes.

In Qana, most of the victims in the three story building that was hit were kids.
Israel dropped leaflets asking civilians to leave. And still people remained.
The people sought refuge in the three story building thinking it would be safer. The children were on the ground floor. So Hezbollah shot from that very building.

In Tyre, the command control headquarters of Hezbollah was on the 12th floor of an apartment building among the civilian population. Not in a bunker, not in a basement. When the building was hit, civilians were hurt.

The UN observer post was being used by Hezbollah as a shield. That's exactly how one UN victim described it. Four UN observers were killed.

Hezbollah wants to maximize civilian deaths on both sides. They take shelter in civilian populations and shoot randomly at civilian populations.
Israel wants to minimize civilian deaths. They drop leaflets and take aim at only essential targets.

Describing the situation does not revive the innocent. But it defines the situation.
It is the only way to fight back at Hezbollah.
To hold back would mean not to strike at Hezbollah at all.



UN Shielded Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

United Nations forces are stationed in Lebanon as observers.
The burning question has been: If they are only observers, why would a UN outpost have been targeted by Israelis leaving four UN personnel dead?
Well, now we know why.

One of the victims, a Canadian major named Paeta Hess-von Kruedener left us a legacy in emails he exchanged 6 days before he was killed in an Israeli air strike. He wrote his former Canadian commander Major General Lewis McKenzie.
McKenzie gave an interview paraphrasing the email exchange.

According to McKenzie, UN observer Paeta Hess-von Kruedener wrote that: Hezbollah fighters were "running around" near the UN post using it as a "shield."
According to McKenzie, that means that Israel's bombing had "not been deliberate targeting, but rather due to tactical necessity."
"That would mean Hezbollah was purposely setting up near the UN post ... It's a tactic."

This is a gargantuan piece of evidence.
The minute Hezbollah entered and occupied the UN post it became Hezbollah territory and that makes it a target for Israeli air strikes.
Knowing that Hezbollah was using their post makes the UN complicit in the act.
Hezbollah terrorists specifically chose the UN post, much as they choose residential areas, because they are safer places to hide and launch attacks.

UN observers cannot provide safe haven, shields or refuge for soldiers or for terrorists.
UN soldiers were killed because they allowed themselves to be shields for Hezbollah.

Responsibility for the deaths lies with Hezbollah and the UN, not with Israel.



Ahmadinejad Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is at it again.

Ahmadinejad is in Tajikistan where he signed a declaration and together with the president of Tajikistan issued a proclamation:
"the use of force against Palestine and Lebanon is unacceptable."

More telling is his comment about the United States and Israel:
the US and Israel are trying to re-carve the map of the Middle East.

What is Ahmadinejad up to?
He is fueling the conspiracy theories that pervade the Muslim world that Israel and the US are there to take over and take control.
No matter that Israel has no territorial claims in Gaza or Lebanon, that they are ceding territory not claiming it.
He is doing a brilliantly persuasive job.

This is not about logic or reality or history.
This is about perception and illusion.
It is about Ahmadinejad and about Ahmadinejad achieving his own goals.



Israel Needs Another 10 Days
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice is now in the region, the Middle East.
Her actions and responses over the next 3 days are essential in determining whether or not Israel's goals in Lebanon will be achieved.

Israel must emasculate Hezbollah & they need another 10 days to 2 weeks.
Without that time:
Lebanon will have no chance of surviving as a democracy
Israel will have no chance of quiet on the northern border
Israel has no territorial claim on Lebanon and will not occupy, they are in & out

Syria must not be drawn into the conflict.
It would mean another front
It would break the model that Israel is creating which is a local not regional issue
If Israel bombs in Syria they will only bomb convoys carrying weapons, not Syrian targets
Israel does not want this to become a war with Syria, they want Syria to control Hezbollah

Hezbollah wants this to be a long drawn out war of attrition.
Israel wants it over fast.
The fate of the kidnapped boys has fallen into secondary status.

Condi, tread carefully.



It's A Bad Plan
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Here comes the United States to the rescue - or so they think.

The United States has a plan to:
handle the conflict in the Middle East
solve the problem of Hezbollah
resolve the problem of Iran

Here's the US plan: Enlist Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to influence Syria to separate from Iran and to stop Hezbollah.
Bad plan, bad idea, the only thing it will accomplish is to make a bad situation much, much worse.
Iran and Syria should not be separated - not at all, they are a couple and they need to be confronted as a unit.

By separating Syria and Iran, Syria is taken off the responsibility hook.
Suddenly, with a wink and a nod from Jordan and Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Syria helps the United States and is transformed into a "good guy."
I think not!



Inner Muslim Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Traditionally and historically, the Arab and Muslim world strives to present a united front to the rest of the world.
Reaction to the war between Hezbollah and Israel, however, is providing us with some seldom seen or articulated signs and sounds of serious and divisive debate

The debate goes as follows:
Did Hezbollah cross the border in order to marshal Muslim honor and confront Israel?
If they did, then this would be a fight for Arab pride and honor and that is the kind of conflict many Muslims would support.
or
Was confronting Israel just a silly boneheaded mistake by Shiites whose only motive was to generate publicity by waging a war they cannot win?
If Hezbollah's actions were purely religious-based, because they so badly want to thrust themselves into the thick of things and attract more Shiite adherents, then most Muslims reject it.

The debate is going on everywhere, the Muslim press, the streets and the cafes - not only in high echelon corridors.
There very few variations on the theme.



Higher Moral Standard
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The number of humanitarian messages I have received from Israeli groups and social agencies offering help to the people and causes compromised and left unable to care for themselves in the wake Hezbollah's bombs is overwhelming.

One agency is sending children in the war zone to summer camps across the rest of Israel.
Other summer camps are going out to find children from the north on their own and inviting them to their facilities.
Another group is sponsoring family hospitality for families in need.
One organization is actually collecting abandoned pets and asking citizens throughout the country to step forward and adopt these animals who would otherwise starve to death. They suggest that there are thousands of stranded pets in the war zone.

It's inspiring.
A nation under attack from katyushas has the moral and ethical grounding to care not only for the people but also for displaced and abandoned pets.

I know that the same cannot be said of Hezbollah.



Arab Self Delusion
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah was interviewed on al Jazeera TV yesterday.
One smart aleck I know asked why, if he could get to al Jazeera, how come Israel can't get to him, but that's another question for another time.

Nasrallah, typical of his rhetoric, made some pretty wild statements.
He spoke of the two young Arab brothers from Nazareth killed by a Hezbullah sent katyusha bomb.
Nasrallah called the boys "shahid"s. He said that they are martyrs for Allah who died fighting for a Holy Cause. He said that they merit automatic places in heaven.

Everyone with a heart grieves for the parents of these boys, but honestly, they were two kids playing outside like kids do - when a bomb fell and killed them.
The death of these boys, like all other civilian deaths in this crisis is a tragedy, but they bring no honor.

Nasrallah is so deluded in his own mission that he even views his own mistakes as divine.
Open your eyes, Muslim world.
The great leader Hassan Nasrallah, like other despots and dictators, lives a life of self-delusion.



A Warped Sense of Reality
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

How would you define the term "terrorist organization"?

In a meeting, just yesterday, with Tzipi Livni, a lawyer by profession and now Israel's Foreign Minister, Javier Solana the European Union High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy explained that it is unclear that Hezbollah has fulfilled the definition of a terrorist organization. He said that this is a legal issue not an ethical one.

A silly comment but it also illustrates the perspective of certain world leaders.

At just about the same time Syria informed the United Nations that Terje Roed Larson, the UN's lead ambassador was not welcome in their country.
Now Larson is no friend of Israel but he is the UN Secretary General's Special Envoy. He is a solid by-the-book envoy who follows strict policy.

These aren't items you read about in the mainstream press.
But understand the situation for what it is.
The European Union dwells in a world of delusion.
Syria is an obstacle, Syria is not, cannot and will not be, a part of a possible solution.



Saddam's Advice
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, sound advice comes from some of the strangest sources.
Today, Saddam Hussein gave Syria advice concerning the current conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

Saddam warned Syria to be very careful about trusting Iran.
Saddam blamed Iran for the current crisis in the Middle East.

Now, we all know that Saddam Hussein is a liar and a cheat. He was a despot and a tyrant. But in this instance, he has nothing to gain and no reason to lie.
Saddam Hussein is simply giving his opinion and offering his own analysis based on years of experience in dealing with the involved parties.

The big question is this: How is it that Saddam Hussein can see the truth here while the European Union, the United Nations and a whole long list of other countries cannot.

Syria is out of the Iran's league, Syria is overplaying their hand.
Saddam is saying that Iran and Hezbollah may just ensnarl Syria in a big mess, in a very big mess.



Hezbollah's Big Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 16, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Hezbollah has been making serious blunders in the attack against Israel.

Biggest Mistake: to assume that there would be massive Israeli internal rejection of Israel's counter action, that Israelis would not have the internal strength to fight Hezbollah, to believe that the Israeli public would force their politicians to stop the army and the air force.

It's the opposite: nearly across the board, with only few exceptions, Israelis want a real solution crippling Hezbollah and their constant relentless bombing of civilians.

Another mistake: hitting Haifa and threatening Tel Aviv which only strengthened Israel's attitude that they must solve the Hezbollah problem and solve it differently than in the past when Israel just pounded back.

One solution is targeting Nasrallah the head of Hezbollah.
Another is wiping out Hezbollah's infrastructure and arms caches.
Either way, Hezbollah's ability to organize and communicate and grow will be disabled.

It will take time and require patience, this is not an overnight operation.
Israel will return Lebanon to Lebanon without Hezbollah, or at least with a very weakened Hezbollah so that the Lebanese can run Lebanon.
They might not say it out loud, but the Lebanese will thank Israel.



Israel in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has been pounding away at Lebanon.
So what are Israel's actual goals, what is Israel really fighting for?

Israel's most important goal is to destroy the infrastructure of Hezbollah.
If they succeed Israel will be handing back to Lebanon a society with a weakened
Hezbollah which is the only Hezbollah that the Lebanese will be able to control

Israel's secondary goal, after weakening Hezbollah, is look for and find captured Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser.
They are knocking out Lebanon's transportation routes in order to make certain that the soldiers are not moved to Syria and then to Iran.

Israel's priority order is inverted.
The main objective should be to get the soldiers. They should be sparing no expense in finding them. Over the past few years there has been a clear change and an erosion of the sacred sacrament of the Israeli Defense Forces, one that promised every Israeli soldier that their country would do everything, everything possible to get a soldier back.

This change in IDF principles of operation will have a huge impact on the future fighting force of Israel. Parents send their children to defend the country and they want at the least a body to bury, a grave to visit and an official day of mourning. A soldier needs to know that his country will move mountains to secure his return. Ron Arad was supposed to be the exception, not the rule.



Who Condemns Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 14, 2006 #2

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia seems to be the only country to really understand the escalating situation in Lebanon.
Certainly, the Saudis understand much more than either the European Union or the United States.

Read these comments carefully and compare:
SPA, the official Saudi news agency issued the following statement: "A distinction must be made between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside (Lebanon) and those behind them without recourse to the legal authorities and consulting and coordinating with Arab nations."

Condi Rice said "It is extremely important that Israel exercise restraint in its acts of self defense."

Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema said: "This is a disproportionate operation and is dangerous in the long term. I believe the entire international community sees it this way."

The European Union, too, used the word "disproportionate," in an official message distributed by Finland, presently head of the EU.

In the end this whole situation helps Iran's international agenda.
It pits Western countries against Muslims.



Why Hezbollah Hit Haifa
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Why and How did Hezbollah make the decision to target Haifa with a Raad I Missile, more commonly known as a katyusha?

Here's probably Why:
Hezbollah believed its own rhetoric and then mistook rhetoric for cues to shoot.
The rhetoric said that if Israel hits Beirut, Hezbollah will hit Haifa.

Here's probably How:
Hezbollah dispatched a team of people with several Raad I Missiles and gave them orders to launch only when told. The team has been in place for weeks. When they heard that the Beirut Airport had been hit they thought that was their cue to launch. It was not.

It was a huge mistake.
Hitting Haifa was an escalation too soon in the game and should not have happened, it raised the stakes very early on.
Hezbollah have always been masters of the waiting game.
The Raad I Missile, capable of bringing 2 million Israelis into range, should have been Hezbollah's all powerful frightening weapon.
While some Israeli sources suggest that an Iranian unit launched the missile.

This is no longer a game of intimidation.
The move has been made from the theoretical into the very real world of war.



Terror in India
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There are lessons to be learned from the gruesome, organized terror that shock Bombay, India and killed over 190 people.

Terrorists and supporters of terror unequivocally believe:
that the innocent people they murder are guilty simply because they exist
that the mass murder of innocents is the only weapon against a stronger and better armed enemy
that their acts are justified as self-defense because attacks are the only language the enemy understands

In truth, the terrorist mass murderers in Bombay, like the terrorist mass murderers in Israel, London, New York, Madrid and Istanbul are criminals, not freedom fighters. To think otherwise is delusional.

There are rules to fighting.
One of the most important rules is to identify the targets of attack and to try and avoid hurting innocents.
Terrorists target innocents.
Terrorists intentionally and deliberately murder innocents.



Palestinian: 77% Support Kidnapping
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre, a Palestinian polling organization, has provided us with a window into the Palestinian mind.

A just released poll asked 2000 Palestinians what they thought about the practice of kidnapping Israel soldiers and civilians.
77% said they agreed, they believed it was fine to kidnap Israelis.

They were asked what they thought about shooting missiles into Israel.
64% said that was OK, no problem, appropriate action.

They were asked if this current crisis will end on a positive note or a sour note.
37% of Palestinians think this situation will end positively for Palestinians.

These are profound statements about the future of Israel/Palestinian interaction.
What frightens me as much as the attitude of Palestinians is the attitude of the West. The West does not believe that average Palestinians think this way. The West must now factor this new knowledge into their analysis.



Terror Plot in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Uncovering the plot to attack the tunnels of New York and the arrest of operatives involved in the planning the attack is significant.
However, there are many issues to be discussed about the way in which the operation was handled, about the strength and the weakness of counter terrorism and law enforcement.

On the one hand:
Very little of the plot was jelled, but there was enough proof to consider it a significant threat. The circle is larger than the three principals who were arrested (one in Beirut and two in Holland) and the five others are still at large.

On the other hand:
Counter terror raids during the initial stages of the plot make prosecution problematic. When you get the terrorists early in their planning before anything can really develop, you shut them down and eliminate the cell. But our courts and our laws are still not quite equipped to understand the terror. Prosecuting terrorists for the threat when no explosives were purchased and when the plan is very impractical is a nightmare. This is the same situation that arises with the capture of the terror cell in Florida.

As the plots jell there is more evidence and more material which can be used to convict the perpetrators.
More importantly, the longer the plan is being plotted, the more contact there is with other operatives, sponsors and supporters and the more potential there is for more arrests.
That's what's missing in this scenario.



Hamas Now Attacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Interior Ministry of the Palestinian Authority has given the green light.
Palestinians troops may now - officially - attack and shoot Israeli troops.
That means war.

The Hamas-led Palestinian Authority has raised the stakes.
The objective of Hamas security forces is to fight Israel.
The objective of Israel is not to attack the PA.
Israel's objectives are to get back their soldier and stop the missile launches.

Why has the Palestinian Authority chosen to attack Israel rather than stop the missile launches into Israel and return the soldier?
Israel has no territorial aspirations in Gaza, they will leave when the missiles stop and the soldier is returned.
It would make more sense to stop the missiles than to attack Israeli targets.

The answer is abundantly clear to me.
While Israel has no territorial aspirations on Gaza, the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority has territorial aspirations on Israel.
Hamas wants more than Gaza and the West Bank.
Hamas wants much more.



Mashal Is In Charge of Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Khaled Mashal.
He is the brains behind Hamas.
He is the head of the Hamas political wing.
He is the man who orchestrated the missile attacks against Israel and the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier.

He used to be headquartered in Damascus.
Word is, Khaled Mashal left for Algeria on Sunday.

Syrian President Bahsar Assad was none too pleased last week having his presidential palace buzzed by the Israeli Air Force. Low flying planes breaking the sound barrier are freakishly frightening and tend to break the good china.
Assad called Meshal in for a tete a tete and told the Hamas leader that he does not enjoy being threatened by Israel's Air Force.
Assad told Meshal that he should give up the Israeli soldier.

Mashal got the point.
So as not to draw the rage of Syria, the country that had just increased his security detail, he left. It was also made clear that Israel was looking for Meshal.

Mashal's leadership is causing real tension with the rest Arab leadership.
They believe that the matter of the soldier should be put to rest.
Mashal disagrees and he is the man in charge, the one calling the shots.
Mashal is now totally out of touch, with the situation, with the Palestinians, with reality.



Saddam's Wife is Guest of the King
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iraq's new Most Wanted List includes two very interesting personalities: Sajida Khairallah Tulfa, the wife of Saddam Hussein and Saddam's oldest daughter Raghdad.

Tulfa and Raghdad and her daughter are now living in Jordan as official guests of the King.
The Hashemite Kingdom did not take kindly to seeing the names of their guests announced on the List.
The Jordanian prime minister responded to the announcement by saying:
"Raghad Saddam Hussein and her children are in Jordan for purely humanitarian reasons, hosted and protected by the Hashemite (Jordanian Royal Family) as foreigners."

Being a guest of the King of Jordan implies that you are untouchable-Unless!
Unless it is discovered that you have abused the King's gracious hospitality.
Unless it becomes clear that you sponsored activities that undermine Iraq's stability and/or Jordan's stability.
Unless you have behaved in a manner that would be considered seditious and treasonous.

If mother and daughter have crossed the line they can expect to be punished in ways that the Western mind can not even imagine.



Iraq PM Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

"I would like to stress that if we fail in the battle against terrorism, there will be no Iraq left."
Those are the words of Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki.

Maliki always knew that the threat of terror was potentially dangerous and he knew that the threat came from within.
But it was not until now that he took the bold step of appealing to the average Iraqi citizen and saying to everycitizen: we need your help in this battle and without your help we will be left with anarchy and lawlessness.

By empowering the average citizen, Maliki takes the power away from the terrorists who count on people to cower in fear of their actions.
Now Maliki must maintain his tone and direction and continue his appeal to the citizens of Iraq to unite against lawlessness.

Maliki is a Shiite in a country composed of a Shiite majority.
Last week a significant Sunni religious leader also sent out an appeal for calm and lawfulness.

If Iraqi leadership keeps up this message Iraq will have a real chance of ousting the terrorists.



No Parallel Btw Israel and Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is aggressively seeking to free the Israeli citizens - military and civilian - who have been kidnapped by Hamas and their affiliates.
Hamas is aggressively attempting to harm as many innocent Israelis as they can.

Israel, Israeli leadership and the Israeli Defense Forces have a standard to uphold - Israel does not want to harm civilians, even accidentally.
Witness the Fox News correspondent, Mike Tobin, wandering freely around the Palestinian neighborhood of Beit Hanoun as it is being bombed.
In response to a question about his safety the correspondent answers that bombings are a common occurrence and the Israelis are surprisingly accurate which explains why there are still Palestinians on the streets.

Israel has a dual objective and it is a nearly impossible balance to strike.
Objective # 1: to apply pressure on Hamas leadership and Hamas terrorists
Objective # 2: to avoid unduly hurting the Palestinian masses
Israel is searching for arresting and targeting - the politicians that have been arrested are all being charged with terrorist activities. Hitting the electric supply forces the terrorists to leave their hideouts and seek alternative sources - like their cars - from which to charge their all important cell phones, their communication source and link to the outside.

Palestinian terrorists are shooting Qassam missiles indiscriminately, seeking out crowded areas for attack, blowing up as many Israelis as possible.

To draw parallels between the actions of Israel and the actions of the Hamas is to misunderstand the situation and to underestimate the stakes.



New Bin Laden Tape
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The new "bin Laden tape" has several purposes:

Most important is to pay tribute to Zarqawi and proclaim him a hero.

Next in importance is to send out the message to al Qaeda adherents that Osama bin Laden is a major player in both sad times and in victorious times.

This tape is a bin Laden prop.
The tape portrays him as a great international Muslim leader who pays respect to the dead and appeals to the enemy - George Bush - in the name of honor for the dead and in order to console the family of an Islamic fighter.
Bin Laden actually asks the president of the United States to allow the body to be brought to Zarqawi's family in Jordan - there is no chance of that happening.

The tape shows that despite the rumor about their disagreements, in death, Bin Laden respects Zarqawi as a true Jihadi, a true fighter for Islam.

For 19 minutes, on video graphics with audio overlay, Osama bin Laden hits home the point that he is THE true Muslim leader.



Israel Must Hit The Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian terror groups have discovered the soft belly of Israel.
ISRAELI CITIZENS.
Three Israeli citizens have now been kidnapped.
One has been executed.
And counting.

Israel will not and cannot countenance the kidnapping of Israeli citizens.
Israel is responding with tremendous force.
Israel will use these kidnappings as an opportunity to pounce on and set right many of the smaller irritations that have been ignored of late - chief among them the barrage of Qassam missiles being fired at Israeli communities

Psychologically it is more important for Israel to search out the kidnapped citizens, even if the search fails, than to do nothing.
Once Israel advances, hot on the heels of the terrorists, there is A CHANCE that the victims will emerge alive.
If Israel plays the game of sit and wait or relies on outside interests to negotiate, the fate of the Israeli citizens is sealed - certain death.n
Israel will make sure the terrorists know the price of kidnapping and brutally executing Israelis.
Think of Israel as a mother lion protecting her cubs.



Why Israel Invaded Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

It seems counter-intuitive.
Why would Israel invade Gaza in the hope of find their missing/kidnapped soldier?
Wouldn't negotiations be a better route?

Terrorists don't think like other people.
These are terrorists and the chances of getting the young soldier back alive are maximized in a sophisticated strike, minimal in dialogue.
The point is to apply pressure on the captors which will, ideally, force them to try to escape or hide, or just abandon their charge and run.

What if it doesn't work?
Israel's threatened invasion is a tool of intimidation.
If the threat doesn't work, if it backfires, it may force the hand of the terrorists and the result would be the death of Gilad Shalit.

By invading Gaza, by encroaching on the terrorist's territory, Israel is utilizing the best weapon they have for getting to their soldier.
There is no way that Israel can, or will, negotiate with the terrorists.
Negotiations that have taken place did not include Israel, they were conducted by other countries and concerned groups pleading for the life of the Israeli soldier.

If Israel were to negotiate with terrorists each and every Israeli would become a target for terrorist kidnappings.



PA & Chemical Weapons
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between Palestinians and Israelis are mounting.

The Palestinian attack against an Israeli outpost that resulted in the death of two Israeli soldiers and the kidnapping of a third is the most public manifestation of the rising hostilities.

In response to the attack Israel is threatening to invade Gaza, find their soldier and track down those responsible for the attack.
In response to Israel's threat the al Aksa Brigade, an arm of Fatah, has issued its own threat.
Fatah says that they are not afraid of an Israeli invasion into Gaza.
Fatah says that they are prepared for an Israeli invasion and that "with the help of Allah we are pleased to say that we have developed over 20 types of biological and chemical weapons, this after a three year effort."

Do the Palestinians really have "over 20 types of biological and chemical" weapons?
They probably have very crude systems that are effective in only a small radius from the explosive. Even on a Qassam missile their delivery system cannot be very effective.

The best bet for delivering these weapons is on the back of a suicide bomber.
That's also the most effective way of getting a conventional bomb to its target.



The Sermon & The Riot
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli prisons are a microcosm of Palestinian society.

A riot between Palestinians broke out in the Israeli prison Shata on Friday.
The fact that the riot broke out on a Friday is very significant.
Friday is the Muslim day of rest and even in prison religious Muslims hear an Imam sermonize and pray.
It was the Friday sermon that sparked the riot.

The Imam chose to deliver a scathing attack against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for going to Jordan and meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
It was Abbas supporters against affiliates of Islamic Jihad, all in an Israeli jail.

Muslim society is not united.
Muslim society is by no means a monolith.



Iran & Uranium, They're At It Again
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is at it once again, playing their games - and winning.
It's about time that the United States - the most powerful of all Western nations - also become the smartest Western nation.

Here's what happened:
In Vienna, on Thursday, Iran's deputy Nuclear Negotiator delivered a speech at a Think Tank which was translated into German and distributed by the Iranian Embassy.
The translated version spoke of uranium enrichment - and whether it was a precondition for talks.
The Iranian Embassy, the people who distributed the translation, are calling the translation a mistranslation. They are saying that the text should have read that Iran can enrich uranium "without any preconditions."

Honestly, it doesn't make a difference what the text says.
Iran will do whatever it wants to do - which in this case is enrich uranium at will and whim - especially because they know that it irks the West in general, and the United States in particular.
Besides, the Nuclear Proliferation Agreement allows them to do so.

It's monitoring that should be the big issue, that's where Iran will put up the biggest fight.



No Surprise -- A Terror Plot
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The fact that the FBI actually arrested seven people in Miami suspected of plotting to blow up the largest building in the United States, Chicago's Sears Tower, should come as no surprise.

The attacks in Toronto and London and Madrid and Istanbul taught us a lesson: terrorists can and will be locals, people comfortable with the environment in which they are living and able to move seamlessly within the population they are plotting to destroy.
And recently released intelligence reports confirm that there were attempts to fly planes into large building in Australia and England and Italy.

Terrorists are out there - plotting, planning, maneuvering and making mistakes - even in the United States of America.
Do not be surprised.
Open your eyes, watch carefully and report what you see.
We have to find the terrorists.
And we will.
And we do.



Iran @ The World Cup
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I love it when sports mirror politics. Take, for example, the World Cup.

Iran has been eliminated from the world famous World Cup.
Three matches, two losses. 3-1 Mexico, 2-0 Portugal, a tie 1-1 with Angola.
It was embarrassing.
In the eight World Cup games Iran has played over the years, they won only once, in 1998, 2-1 beating out the USA in an intense match.

In true sportsmanship fashion, before the game against Angola, the Iranian team coach - a Croatian - announced that he was quitting.
He was a professional when you fail you take responsibility.

That's not enough for Iran. The Iranian Football Federation voted overwhelmingly to fire the Federation head, a politician named Mohammed Dadkan whose responsibility it is to provide the best facility, the best environment, the best conditions for the athletes.

The World Cup is a serious competition. Only one country wins.
Unlike Iran, other losing countries don't start firing before the games are over.

Losing in Iran has a price - getting fired is definitely better than being beheaded.



Abbas is Absurd
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The goings on in the Middle East today play out like Theatre of the Absurd.

Act I: Israeli citizens living in the city of Sderot are protesting because the Israeli army is not doing enough to prevent Palestinians in Gaza from firing Qassam missiles at them.

Act II: The Palestinians in Gaza firing Qassam missiles into Sderot say they will stop only when Israelis protest the bombs the Israeli army is lobbing into Gaza.

Act III: Palestinian President Abbas calls for a halt to the firing of Qassam missiles into Israel from Gaza.

The most absurd part?
Abbas delivered his lines in Jordan, in Petra - the ancient Nabatian city built into the rock face of the red mountains.
And who was his audience? A group of Nobel Prize winners.
What was the point?

If Abbas truly wants to halt the firing of Qassam missiles he must speak to and meet with his own people, Palestinians, not Nobel Prize winners.
He should be on radio and on TV and in the newspapers.

And then, maybe, Abbas might win his own Nobel Prize.
Or maybe, perhaps, a Tony.
The envelope, please.



Palestinians V Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has agreed to transfer large numbers of rifles and ammunition to Mahmoud Abbas' personal security force - Force 17.
The goal is to strengthen Abbas in the face of the fast growing forces of Hamas.

On the surface, this appears like a good thing for Abbas. But let's take a look.
Abbas claims that the guns have not arrived, that Israel is attempting to drive a divisive wedge between the Palestinian people.
It's a PR ploy - Abbas needs and wants the weapons, but can't say that outright.

There is proof that the munitions are on their way.
Over the past week there were at least 5 appeals to the Israeli Supreme Court to nix the deal - all failed.
And now the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) has launched an investigation into the 3000 guns that Force 17 HAS received.

The PLC claims that this is an attempt by the US and Israel to foment a civil war.
It is unlike me to agree with the PLC, but they are absolutely correct.
The idea behind the arms transfer is to bolster the Abbas forces so they can defend themselves and their positions against Hamas.
The hope is that Abbas will convince the masses of Hamas' genuine objectives and in the end support a toppling of the Hamas led government.



Egypt's & Jordan's Solution
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak have just concluded a meeting in Sharm el Sheik, the Egyptian resort town on the Red Sea.

This is their second face-to-face meeting in two weeks.
What did they talk about? The growing tensions between Palestinians.
It was the only item on the agenda.
Both Egypt and Jordan have significant stakes in maintaining stability in the Palestinian Authority.

They determined that the problem is intra-Palestinian tension.
You'll be surprised by the resolution these two "big brothers" to the Palestinian people arrived at:
Their resolution is to call for a renewal of peace talks with Israel.

How will that solve the problem?
The logic is, Palestinians will unite by focusing on a common enemy and unite them.
Here's the problem with their solution:
The whole argument is about peace with the Israelis - Abbas wants it, Hamas does not.
Can the Arab leaders be so blind?



Palestinian Birth Myth
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 17, 2006
I've Been Thinking:

Myths are powerful, but they are not always truthful.

One famous myth, popular in Arab and Israeli circles, has it that because of their burgeoning birth rate, the Arab population in Israel will soon outnumber the Jewish population.

The myth continues with the prophecy that the Jewish State will soon be overrun by the Arab secret weapon - the womb.

Yasser Arafat enjoyed spreading this myth and took pleasure in the false prophecy.

The Central Bureau of Statistics just released figures showing that over the past 5 years Arab reproduction in Israel has continued - to drop.

In fact, Arab reproduction rates dropped 8% between 2000 -2004.

Arab is in Israel now average 4.36 children per family.

During the same period Jewish reproduction increased from 2.66 children to 2.71 children per family.

Today, Arabs families in Israel have only about 1 1/2 more children than Jews.

It's a seesaw.

The more successful THEY are, the fewer children Arab families have.
The more successful THEY are, the more children Jewish families have.



Palestinian Unity Government?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Due to the tremendous amounts of pressure the Western world is placing on Hamas it appears as if the organization is about to collapse.

The financial crisis in the Palestinian Authority is worsening.
Yesterday, Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud al Zahar was caught entering Gaza through the Rafah checkpoint with a suitcase containing $20 million.
The foreign minister had to sign an affidavit swearing that the money was going directly to the Palestinian treasury.

The Palestinian press is running with the rumor that this Hamas government will disband and a National Unity government, led by a technocrat, will emerge.
A Palestinian National Unity government may sound like a good idea, but in reality, it is only a band-aid cure for what ails the Palestinians.

The problem is that Hamas will never recognize Israel.
Hamas does not and cannot hide that fact.
Re-packaging Hamas, even under the guise of a National Unity government, will not solve the larger problem.
When Hamas goes, politically, they must be gone, entirely.
Only then will the Palestinians be on the road to healing and recovery.



Iranian Intel & Zarqawi
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Reports are telling us that Iran helped the United States find Zarqawi.

The reports, saying that Iranian intel was used to find and then target Zarqawi, are circulating internationally.
For Iran, this is very bad PR.
How can the Iranians be seen as assisting the West, the infidels, in a battle against Islam?!

Iran had to make an official comment squelching the reports.
The official response from Teheran said that they were very happy that Zarqawi is dead - but they did not help.

Zarqawi regularly targeted Shiite religious centers and mosques and holy places.
Zarqawi assassinated Shiite religious leaders.
Zarqawi's death will not be mourned by Iran.
But the idea that Iran helped a non-believer kill a believer, ...
Possible? Certainly.
Probable? Maybe.
Iran will never admit to anything.



Jordan Takes a Stand
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Four Jordanian members of Parliament visited the family of notorious terrorist Zarqawi in order to express condolences.
The Jordanian members of Parliament praised Zarqawi calling him a "martyr."

After their mourning call the four Jordanians went to a mosque where one of the Parliamentarians, Mohammed Abu Fares, delivered a sermon.
Abu Fares spoke of the Jordanians murdered in hotels in Amman in three, near simultaneous, al Qaeda attacks, an operation planned entirely by Zarqawi.
Abu Fares said those victims of terror were not martyrs, he said, "I can't describe them as martyrs; these were mobs and ignorant (people)."

The Jordanian government is outraged.
The Jordanian people, the masses, are outraged.
The Jordanian Parliament has disavowed any connection with the four and demanded that their party, The Islamic Action Front, discipline their members.
The Jordanian government wants to prosecute the four Parliamentarians for violating the best interests of their government. (They have been detained for questioning.)

The Jordanians will use these four prominent members of government to set an example - embracing terrorists will not be tolerated in the Jordanian Empire.



Terrorist Should Fear US
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

"Beware of the repercussions" seems to be the buzz "on air" in the aftermath of Zarqawi's death.
I say, we are facing no greater threat of terror today than we faced last week.

Zarqawi's people are very highly motivated. They were always very highly motivated. There is no greater height on the motivation scale. There is no such thing as "very, very highly motivated." They are motivated to kill us.

Of course they will try to hit the US targets. Of course they will try to hit soft targets who affiliate with US interests. But that was always the case.

We cannot live in fear of retaliation. We cannot. We must continue to strike at terrorist command and control apparatus. We must. Otherwise, terrorists will have the upper hand psychologically. Otherwise, terrorists will intimidate our actions and our reactions.

Terrorists must be made to live in fear - fear that they will be caught, targeted, found out, killed. Terrorist leaders are the ones who should beware the repercussions of their own actions.



New Video From Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

It's all a game of Mass Psychology.

The United States targeted al Zarqawi proving that it might take time but the long arm of US justice will track down murdering terrorists, terrorist organizers and terrorist leaders. This is a huge boost in US morale, especially for soldiers who daily confront a faceless enemy called TERROR.

And now a new video surfaces of Dr. Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's Number Two.
Remember, this is all about Mass Psychology.

It does not matter if the video is new or old. The video is not made for us, it is directed at al Qaeda adherents and potential recruits. It gives al Qaeda members around the world a sense that, even now, they are safe and the movement lives on.
The video was released to say to al Qaeda supporters that the US really cannot get to most of us. That with all the resources in the world the US wastes huge amounts of time and money chasing only a few. And when the United States finally locates someone, they cowardly shoot two faceless missiles from planes.

That is the message that al Qaeda wants their members to have, the message they want to spread around the Muslim world.
Whatever the West thinks about this video - is totally irrelevant.



Zarqawi Is A Start
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Terror in Iraq is not about a single individual.
Yes, al Zarqawi was charismatic and magnetic and daring. Yes, he drew many adherents to the cause. Yes, his death disrupts the command and control operations of the terror network.
Yes, another leader, a new terror-chief, will emerge and take his place.

Cutting off the head of the serpent is an enormously significant victory in fighting terror.
It boosts morale - for soldiers and for citizens - in the battle against terror.
But unless we also successfully target mid-level operatives - the people who really get their hands dirty, the people who will be rising in the ranks - as well as high-level coordinators it will only be a matter of a few months if not weeks before a new organization emerges.
In order to capitalize on the hole left by the death of their leader, in order to make it more difficult to re-group and re-organize, we must incapacitate the entire movement for several years.

Command and control of al Zarqawi's unit has been disrupted.
But al Zarqawi's brand of terror has only been injured, not eliminated.
Now is the time to strike.



World Cup & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, "back - door" diplomacy is just plain back - wards.

Take the World Cup Soccer Tournament, for example. The Tournament begins in Germany on Friday and Iran is one of the competing nations.
Mohammed Alibadi, a vice president of Iran, will be attending the opening match between Germany and Costa Rica, and, he will stay on to cheer Iran's first match against Mexico on Sunday June 11, in Nuremburg.

Germany granted Mohammed Alibadi a visa.
Alibadi "says" he is not representing President Ahmadinejad, but who is he kidding? .Alibadi is representing Iran and the leader of Iran is Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad is a big soccer fan. The team gave him an official shirt before they left for Germany emblazoned with his name and the number 21.
He would love to go and watch the World Cup himself - so much so that the word is that if Iran advances to the second round he will go to Germany.

And Germany will let Iranian President Ahmadinejad in.
The Germans say that "there is no ban on Iranian officials traveling to Germany."
Let me remind Germany that there is, however, a law against denying the Holocaust. It is against German law to say what Iran's leader has said.
And yet, under the pretense of sport, Ahmadinejad will be free to enter Germany.

Meine lieb.



Just Blame The US & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

In Damascus, on Friday, terrorists stormed the national TV and radio building.
Four people were killed, two people were injured and four others were taken captive.

The Syrians blamed the United States and Israel for the attack.
To understand WHY and HOW the Syrians could lay blame elsewhere we must first understand the mindset of Middle East leadership and then analyze the way in which their decisions are made

The attack was actually perpetrated by Jund and Sham also called the Soldiers of the Levant, one of the most active internal terror groups in Syria dedicated to overthrowing the government. They are religious extremists fighting to overthrow a secular government.

Syrian leadership believes that the US and Israel are responsible because they both sow the seeds of discontent and show the potential for change.
The very fact of the existence of Israel is a sign of discontent.
The US presence in Iraq proves that regimes can be toppled.

Syrian leadership refuses to assume responsibility for internal discontent or for standing in the way or internal change.
Therefore, it only makes sense that it is external forces that motivate local groups to organize internal revolts.



China & The Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the Sino- Arab Cooperation Forum hosted by China is over we can see who really has influence over Hamas. NOBODY.

We always knew that Hamas has no respect for the United States, now it is clear that China - the one last hope, is also powerless when it comes to Hamas.

The Chinese told Hamas that they should embrace the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, a framework composed in 2002 that suggests two side-by-side states. The Hamas response came in an interview that Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud al Zahar gave to AP. Even though China embraces the plan, al Zahar said the plan was a waste of time and impractical.

Mahmoud Abbas is pushing for a referendum. The June 6th deadline is fast approaching.
The Hamas foreign minister has called the referendum a waste of money. He says that the Palestinians just held an election, so why do they need a referendum?!

Bottom line, al Zahar is correct on both counts.
The Arab initiative is impractical, it shows no flexibility on the '67 borders.
A referendum would result in new elections and Hamas would be ousted.

It very rarely happens, but his time, I have to agree with Hamas.



Egypt & Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak just hosted Saudi King Abdullah in the town Sharm el Sheikh, a resort famous for peace talks and scuba diving.

On the agenda were two important issues:
Relations between Hamas and Israel
Iranian nuclear development
The meeting ended with some surprising and fascinating conclusions and advice.

About the relations between Hamas and Israel they advised Hamas to move ahead in a process toward peace with Israel.
This is fascinating because Saudi Arabia has no relations with Israel.

About Iranian nuclear development they advised that Iran be open to negotiations with the United States and the West.
This is fascinating because Egypt and Saudi Arabia stand to gain the most if Iran stops nuclear development and if Iran does not stop nuclear development, then Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be forced to develop their own nuclear programs.
The advice was given in order to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Is this a case of "do as I say" or "do as I do"?



Crazy Parallel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 31, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Abdullah Badawi, the foreign minister of Malaysia, put forth the case for Iranian nuclear activity at a conference his country hosted for the 110 members of the Non-Aligned Movement.

He said: "Allowing Israel to develop nuclear weapons with impunity - which it does not deny - while others in the region are prohibited from doing so, is a blatant case of double standard."

He said: "In this matter, we must recognize Iran's right to develop such technology for peaceful purposes."

He said: "The time for double standards is over, the time of threats to other nations is over, selective approach to humanitarian issue is over."

What he really said is that the United States and Israel are conspiring against the Muslim world. He said exactly what Iran wants to hear. He played right into the game that Iran has constructed.

It is a game of US, Iran versus THEM, the United States and the West.

Iran makes up the rules for this game and right now, they are winning.

Iran's game is by no means a reality show, it is all and only about perspective.

Iran's perspective.



All That Glitters Isn't Gold
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Mahmoud al Zahar is on a trip.
He is in the Far East to visit several "essential" countries, countries that that are pledging support to the PA.

After a very successful meeting with the foreign minister of Indonesia, al Zahar was handed a briefcase.
According to one report it contained US $90,000 according to another report it was filled with US $251,000. Cash.
Whatever the amount, it is a joke.

Indonesia is the most populated Muslim country in the world.
Such a paltry gift would be an insult and a surprise - except that the money did not come from the government of Indonesia. The money was raised during street rallies. Now that makes a bit more sense.

To put things into perspective, even the Muslims are barely giving money to the Palestinians.
And when they do give, the sums are mostly small and insignificant.

All that glitters is not gold in the Palestinian Authority.



Hamas Rags For Sale
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera ran an interesting story.
Hamas is raising money by auctioning off the clothing of their "martyrs."

Can you imagine? This is beyond macabre.

Hamas did not come up with this PR stunt to defray the costs of running the Palestinian government.
They came up with the idea because they need to continue to perpetuate the myth of the grandeur of the suicide bomber.
Hamas needs to reinforce the conviction that dying in the act of killing the enemy is glorious, that the martyr's memory will be cherished by the entire Palestinian people for years to come.
It is death and nobility and religious fulfillment in one glorious package.

The message to the people is that anyone who partakes in the work of the "martyr" anyone who watches or bids or succeeds in buying the clothing, is by extension, fulfilling a religious duty.



Jordan Shows Faith in Olmert
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Things are improving in the Middle East.
Granted you have to look carefully, but there are glimmers of light and hope.

Jordan just leaked that they will, once again, send an ambassador to Tel Aviv.
But doesn't Jordan already have an ambassador in Israel?
They did, but Jordan withdrew their ambassador in protest over Israel's policy of targeting terrorist leaders.
They scaled down their diplomatic relations with Israel to make a point and since then, the Jordanian Embassy in Tel Aviv has been without an ambassador.

Jordan will be sending Ali al Ayid.
This appointment shows the value King Abdullah place on the re-emerging relationship between Jordan and Israel.
Al Ayid was the former spokesman of the Jordanian Foreign Ministry.
Al Ayid was a leading Jordanian diplomat stationed in Washington D.C.
Al Ayid is one of King Abdullah's top diplomatic guns.

This move signals more than just the filling of an ambassadorial post.
This move signals the faith that Jordanian King Abdullah has in Ehud Olmert.



Exporting to China
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is currently investigating a local arms manufacturer.
The company is called Amit.
Amit builds RPV's, Remotely Piloted Vehicles, drones.

Amit is under investigation for exporting RPV's to China.
Exporting to China from Israel is a major, major No-No.
Israel is still smarting from a diplomatic scuffle with the United States about selling weapons to China, and that was several years ago.
Amit says they were only sending the RPV's for display at an arms show.
That seems highly unlikely.

This kind of mistake can cause a huge rift on the high-middle diplomatic level.
The high-middle diplomatic level is where real work takes place between nations.
A high-middle level diplomatic snafu blocks development and thwarts movement.

It was after a similar blunder that the United States demanded the resignation of the professional head of Israel's Ministry of Defense, he became the sacrificial lamb.
Amit must be reprimanded.
Israel must not tolerate violations that threaten trusted diplomatic relations.



Cellphone Violence in PA
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Twenty Palestinian gunmen stormed Jawal headquarters the other day.
Jawal is the Palestinian Authority cellular phone company.
Imagine storming T-Mobile or Verizon every time you went out of range.

Cell phone service to the twenty Palestinians had been cut off.
Why? Because they had not paid their bills.
The gunmen were outraged that their service was off and came to Jawal to complain.
Rather than express their displeasure verbally, they shot up ten computers and then took their conflict outside to the street.
When they hit the streets there was mayhem and there was more shooting.

This scenario has become routine.
Disputes in the Palestinian Authority are being resolved by guys with guns.
In the Palestinian Authority guns trump justice.
Welcome to the Hamas-run Palestinian Authority.



Hamas Scandal in EU
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 19, 2996

I've Been Thinking:

A mini diplomatic scandal is brewing in Europe and it is all about Hamas.

It seems that Norway permitted entry to two Hamas representatives.
Their names are Salah Mohamed Al Bardawil and Mohamed al Rantisi.
They were invited to Norway by the Norwegian National Palestinian Committee.

The European Union has made a clear policy decision not to permit entry to Hamas representatives.
And in early May Israel had already warned Norway that permitting entry to Hamas would be interpreted as a "political gesture."

The EU permits free access from one member country to another.
So after they left Norway, the Hamas representatives entered Germany.
When they discovered who had come to visit, Germany was livid. In the typically reserved and understated German manner, Germany's Prime Minister Merkel actually called the entire escapade "annoying."

It is against European Union policy and hence German policy to open doors to Hamas.
Will Hamas be frozen out of Europe?
I'll keep you posted.



Iran & Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan just hosted a very special guest, Monoucher Mottaki, the Foreign Minister of Iran. This was not just a polite meeting.

Jordan has a definite agenda with Iran.
Jordan needs Iran's help.
Jordan and Iran had a very rocky relationship, they are trying to mend fences.

King Abdullah of Jordan gave the nod to Iran's nuclear aspirations by saying:
"we accept the Iranian peaceful nuclear program in the framework of international relations..."
And then the King put forth a strong request: "Stop supporting Hamas."
Jordan has intercepted weapons originating in Iran making their way to Hamas by couriers trained in Syria in Hamas camps sponsored and funded by Iran.

Hamas is a destabilizing force in Jordan.
King Abdullah needs Iran to fully understand what that means for Jordan.



Hamas and Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is no love lost between Jordan and Hamas.

Hamas was thrown out of Jordan and even today some of their highest level leaders are still not permitted entry. Most recently Jordan has accused Hamas of smuggling weapons into Jordan in order to then smuggle them across the border to attack Israel.
There have even been public confessions admitting to the smuggling operation.

So when Jordan's Foreign Minister, Adbul Ilah al Khatib, dressed down Hamas publicly, on network TV, it was to be expected - even though it is rare and always surprising to witness public disagreements among Arabs.
Khatib was not pulling any punches. He said that it was time for Hamas to "face up to their responsibilities and act as a government." He said that "they are responsible for the welfare of the Palestinian people."

Good move Jordan. Hamas will collapse only after Arab and Muslim countries start making serious demands on them.
Only then will local Palestinians see their leaders for who they truly are.



Chavez & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

I am not in the habit of quoting Hugo Chavez the president of Venezuela.
Yet, from time to time, even a pariah dictator like Chavez has important insight.
Sometimes, even a despotic ruler speaks the truth.

Chavez is visiting England.
In a meeting yesterday with Kenneth Livingston, the gadfly mayor of London, Chavez said "if the United States attacks Iran ... oil could reach $100 a barrel or more."
Hugo Chavez is 100% correct.

There is little doubt that any attack on Iran - whether by land, sea or air, will have a significant deleterious short term effect on the price of oil.
And Iran is banking on this.
Iran is convinced that America's addiction to oil will dictate their foreign policy.

Iran is also, probably, 100% correct.



US Pressure on Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There is a serious disconnect between United States policy and action.

Policy:
Speaking at a meeting of the Quartet the secretary of state said that the US was concerned by the situation in the Palestinian Authority, that no one wanted to see the Palestinians suffer, that no one wanted to deal with a government that celebrates when a suicide bomber blows himself up in Tel Aviv, that countries should continue their strong stand against Hamas and force Hamas to accept Israel and to condemn violence.

Action:
At the same forum Rice announced that the US was delivering $10 million to the Palestinians for medical - only medical - aid.

Now $10 million is not very much. And when the US gives "aid" to the Palestinians it must be a "transfer in kind" - actual medicine and not cash, otherwise the $$$ might get "lost." Russia just transferred $10 mil to the PA and I can't wait to see if and where it ends up.
The irony is that Palestinian President Abbas actually has access to $1.4 billion but refuses to touch. The money is part of the Palestinian reserves and Abbas does not want Hamas to have any control over the funds.

The United States must be very careful giving humanitarian aid.
The United States must be as careful as Abbas is with PA monetary reserves.



Iran's Real Agenda
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is now letting us in on his real agenda.

The Iranian president asserts that the entire nuclear crisis is a political issue and should be resolved politically. He is trying to be politically correct about the whole issue.
The translation of Ahmadinejad's politically correct statement is that the United States is embellishing the impact of the Iranian nuclear situation escalating it into a crisis.

He is right and he is wrong.
Yes, it is a political and diplomatic crisis. Yes, the US is stoking the flames.
But Iran is posing a real threat to the world and that threat is impossible for Ahmadinejad to see.

Iran is pursing rights protected by the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty to develop nuclear energy.
Iran is also refusing to allow for transparency and that is the crux of the problem. That is what has led to this crisis.

Bottom line: Iran is wrong and the United States is stoking the flames.



Iran Found its Own Uranium
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has made a significant announcement: They have discovered reserves of uranium and they will begin to mine those reserves.

Why is this significant?
Because one of the tools intelligence analysts use to determine the level of Iran's nuclear progress is by monitoring how much of the material needed for nuclear development Iran imports.
Uranium is one of the principle elements required for nuclear development and if Iran no longer has the need to import uranium, intelligence gathering will be more difficult.

How will intelligence analysts monitor Iran's progress now?
They will have to monitor through satellite research only. Unfortunately, satellite pictures will not provide good pictures of the quantity or quality of uranium.

This is a very big step forward for Iran.
This is a very big step backward for the West.



Israel At 58
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was Yom Ha'Atzmaut, it was Israel's 58th birthday.
As a country, Israel has much to be proud of and many reasons to celebrate.

Congratulatory calls came in from leaders around the world - the Queen of England, the King of Sweden, the Queen of Holland, the presidents of India, South Korea, the Ukraine and Russia.

Huh? Do world leaders call each other to say congrats on July 4th or on Bastille Day? They do not. But Israel is different.

At 58, Israel as a country is still concerned about its image. The fact that distinguished world leaders called with good wishes was more than nice. These calls signified to Israelis that they are members in good standing of the Community of World Nations.
At 58 Israel is still fundamentally insecure and requires the blessing of others.

My hope is that by 59 Israel will have outgrown this insecurity.
Insecurity gets in the way of sound decision making.



Watching Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to Iran, it's more important to watch what they do than to listen to what they say.

Iran signed on to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaties for one simple reason - it gave them license to enrich uranium without breaking any rules, without opening themselves up to censure, or worse, to examination. And Iran has taken advantage of the situation.

In an interview with the ISNA (Iranian Student News Agency) Gholam Reza Aghazadad, chairman of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said: "Iran has successfully produced enriched uranium up to 4.8%. This level can satisfy Iran's demand to produce nuclear energy fuel."
And then he added: "Purity of more than 5% is not on agenda now."

Can he be trusted? Can Iran be trusted?
All we can do is wait and see, monitor and watch.
The responsibility for monitoring Iran lies with us.



Rice - Be Realistic
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice just said: "We continue to hope that Hamas will take the will of the international community seriously."
Maybe, but very unlikely.

There are three possible scenarios for the Palestinian Authority under Hamas:
They live up to the hopes of Secretary Rice, which is very remote
They erupt into a civil war, which is a possibility
They suspend what little democracy exists, which is most probable

The Clinton Administration failed vis a vis Hamas because they hoped that the PA would be something other than what it was and then assumed that their hope would turn into a reality.

To think that Hamas will change is to be deluded.
Delusions of this sort impairs the judgment of policy makers.
The United States and the West should assume that Hamas will not change.

Policy makers need to be realists, not dreamers.



Surprise - Hezbullah Is A Terror Organization
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Every year, the US State Department produces a report on terror worldwide.
Every year, Hezbullah is included in the report.

This year, Hezbullah lashed out at the report saying that it is the United States that practices state-sponsored terror. Excuse me?!

Hezbullah may operate real soup kitchens, real medical clinics and legitimate day care centers, but that does not make them any less a terrorist organization. A professional assassin can be a doting, loving father, but that does not make him any less an assassin.
One of the chief objectives of Hezbullah is to destroy Israel through any means. They target innocent people to achieve their goal.

It does not matter how much good Hezbullah does.
It does not matter what claims Hezbullah makes.
Hezbullah is a terrorist organization.
Make no mistake about it.



Iran is Playing A Game
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian nuclear confrontation is reaching a new plateau.
The IAEA came out with its report - no major surprises there but a few worrying terms like "matters of concern."

AP quoted the report, "Iran declined to discuss these matters" and "Iran continues to decline the agency's request" for a copy of the document.

This is neither a scathing condemnation nor a crescendo to military strike.
And Iran knows it.

Iran says the document proves that the IAEA still has jurisdiction over their programs and that, therefore, the issue should not be put before the Security Council. Iran is not surprised by the report or by the threat of sanctions.

The West has yet to catch on to them, but Iran is playing a game.
It is a game of "us versus them."
Iran is acting like a cocky adolescent, all bluster no concerns.
Right now Iran is winning and the West is losing.
The West is playing a different game - the game of intimidation.



Hamas' Double Standard
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

When it comes to terrorist attacks, Hamas clearly has a double standard.

Attack against innocent Israelis in Tel Aviv - no problem with that.
Attack against innocent Egyptians in Sinai - a "criminal operation that cheapened our region" and "a war against Arab interests."

The Palestinian Crime Minister (yes, Hamas has appointed a Crime Minister) called the attack in Dahab a "crime."
Why is it a crime to blow up a beach resort in Egypt and an "honor" to blow up a bus or a cafe in Israel?
Because for Hamas killing Israelis and Jews is an honor while attacking a corrupt Western-oriented Arab authority is a crime.

The distinction between al Qaeda and Hamas is huge.
Al Qaeda believes in blowing up, in executing, in destroying non-believers.
Al Qaeda believes in toppling non-believing governments through murder.
Hamas wants to convert non-believers.
Hamas wants non-believers to become fervent believers.

That is how Hamas has a double standard.
That is why Hamas is not al Qaeda.



Iran's Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

An "interested" intelligence agency has just made the following revelation:
Iran has successfully enriched uranium to a level of 4.1%.
Until this information was released Ahmadinajad had said that Iran’s uranium enrichment level was at 3.5%.

There are different levels of uranium enrichment.
Low level means anything lower than 20%.
Slightly enriched uranium is between 0.9 and 2%
Nuclear energy reactors use uranium enriched between 3% and 5%.
Research reactors use between 12% and 19 %.

Highly enriched uranium is 20% and higher.
Usable for weapons, but not very efficiently, is 20% enriched uranium.
Weapons grade is 85% and higher, typically over 90%.
Nuclear subs use 50%, but the most efficient subs use close to 90% uranium.

Iran is making the transition.
They are almost out of the low level, light water commercial reactor range and into the experimental range. From there it's the submarine and then bomb range.
Iran has a significant way to go, but they are moving ahead efficiently.
Iran's efficiency - that is the real worry.



Israel's New Satellite
By Micah Halpern

April 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just launched another satellite, the Eros B.
Israel contracted the Russians and they propelled the Eros B into orbit.

Satellites are used for many reasons but their main function, we all know, is for security and intelligence gathering.
Intelligence is Israel's life blood.
Only through intel can Israelis be truly protected from real threats against their very existence.
Today the main threat to Israel comes from Iran.

Israel cannot rely on anyone else - not for protection and not to provide valid, accurate intel. Even the great United States fails when it comes to gathering real intelligence about Iran. Even according to Congress, US decision makers still do not have a clear understanding of Iran's path or potential.

That leaves Israel on its own collecting satellite and local intel.
Intel that allows Israel to create a series of plans that will repel any threat from Iran. Or from anywhere else.



Palestinian Pariahs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan recently convicted nine al Qaeda operatives.

The nine men were planning a prison break.
They were trying to break one of their "colleagues" out of prison.
The prisoner was doing time for planning an al Qaeda terrorist gas attack.

The nine men are all Jordanians of Palestinian descent.
Palestinians in Jordan are not welcome citizens, they are pariahs.
Four men are still at large.

We now know that:
al Qaeda continues to operate in Jordan and their plans are grandiose
the Jordanians are searching and finding these terrorists
these Jordanian/Palestinian/pariahs are actively plotting the destruction of Jordan

The significance of this information is enormous.



EU: It's Either Or
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The hallowed halls of European diplomacy seem to be cracking under the weight of a double standard.

On Friday the European Union said that aid to the Palestinians has been cut indefinitely. Period. No caveats.

But at the same time the European Union issued a statement urging Israel to pay the Palestinians the taxes which they are holding for them - amounting to somewhere between $30-$40 million a month.

And at the same time the Hamas Foreign Minister, Al Zahar, sets off on a trip to the Persian Gulf where he says he will be meeting with European diplomatic representatives.

It's either or. Europe cannot have it both ways.
Yes Hamas or No Hamas. Make a choice and adhere to it.



Hamas Versus Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Abbas has declared that two decisions made by the Hamas appointed Palestinian Interior Minister - are illegal.
Wow.

One decision was truly ridiculous.
It was the appointment of a leading Hamas terrorist as director general of the Interior Ministry.

Far be it from me to say that Hamas had a good idea.
But the second decision was actually very important and it was thinking like this that ousted the Fatah and brought Hamas to power in the first place.
The proposal was to create a new, volunteer, civil police patrol to keep order and try to curb the anarchy on the streets of Gaza.

The only way to stop the escalation of terrible violence on Palestinian streets is to activate locals to stand up and say "enough." The situation is way out of control and short of martial law, amassing the masses is the only way to stem the anarchy.

One of the greatest strengths of Hamas is evaluating and answering the needs of the Palestinian people.
One of the greatest weaknesses of Abbas is understanding and meeting the needs of the Palestinian people.



Iran Opens a Car Plant in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran-Khodro is the Iranian equivalent of Ford Motors.
They make a car called the "Samand."

The Iranians just sent out a press release announcing that Iran-Khodro has finished building a plant in Syria and, in a few months, they will move toward their goal of producing 5,000 Samands per year.
Iran also has a plan to expand their Samand regional export to 30,000 annually.

Imagine Volkswagen opening a plant in Mexico, or a Cadillac rolling out in Germany. This is an enormous step by Iran.

Syria benefits tremendously by this arrangement.
Syria is in great need of industry and the Syrian Prime Minister has already ordered that State facilities buy the Samand cars.

Why is Iran building a plant in Syria? Iran is an industrialized country with sophisticated hi-tech and low-tech industry.
Here's why: If Iran can provide much needed inexpensive goods and services to the region then Iran becomes the most important link in the process of raising the regional standard of living.

In this region, a little economic assistance translates into enormous political power.



Egyptian Paper Praises Terror Attack
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

O.K. so Hamas praises the terror attack in downtown Tel Aviv that took nine lives and wounded over sixty people.
But when an Egyptian newspaper editorial praises the attack we need to seriously evaluate the situation.

All press in Egypt is State run.
There is no independent thinking. There is no freedom of the press. There is no freedom of expression. When a State-run paper runs an editorial the day after the Tel Aviv terror attack saying that the mass murder was an act of "martyrdom" and "an act of sacrifice" red flashing lights go off.

Egypt is supposed to be a friend of Israel. They are supposed to be a friend of the United States and a supporter of the battle against terror.
Why would Egypt condone this brutal inhuman act of mass murder?

Three reasons:
Politically, it is good for internal consumption - they are speaking the mind of the people.
Politically, most Arabs do not believe that murdering an Israeli is actually wrong, they believe it is a justified act of self defense, not the mass murder of innocents.
Politically, Egypt wants to curry favor with Hamas so that they can later make demands on them.

The United States will not be happy. Egypt knows that. Egypt is playing a very dangerous game.



China and Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

China is the best fulcrum to apply pressure on Iran. That is clear.

And recently, China's Ambassador to the United Nations, Wang Guangya, held a press conference about Iran's nuclear development program.
People "in the know" had their ears piqued.

China said that Iran's nuclear behavior "is not in line with what is required of them by the international community."
This is an enormously significant statement.

China is a permanent member of the Security Council.
China is the only country that can be an honest broker with Iran because they are seen as a country that does answer to the United States on these issues.

Iran needs China.
Iran wants China to continue to be one of their largest oil clients.
So when China talks - Iran listens.
At least, we hope they do.



Bring Hamas to Their Knees
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's economic/diplomatic war against Hamas is waging strong.
The Israeli Prime Minister opened his cabinet meeting this week by declaring that the purpose of the boycott against Hamas was to "bring them to their knees."

He means what he said.
The new world plan for the new Palestinian government is to force the government aka Hamas:
to change policy about Israel
to change policy about terror and violence
to make certain that they accept agreements accepted by the previous government

Hamas will respond in the way they do best.
They will blame it all on Israel and then they will blame it on America.
Hamas has never yet accepted or assumed responsibility for their own actions.
So the Palestinian people continue to suffer and Hamas continues to blame Israel.
The cycle does not end.



Even The UN Understands
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 13, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Even the United Nations is beginning to understand the danger of Hamas.
Finally. (except UNWRA of course)

On Tuesday the UN directed its people on the ground in Gaza and elsewhere in the Palestinian Authority not to speak with any Palestinian leaders - including government ministers. They may only speak to technocrats and they may have contact with personnel who actually run the food programs.

Why the change in the UN?
Because this new Hamas government is not even pretending to acknowledge the principles of cooperation and mutual respect that underscore the foundation of the United Nations.
Because the UN now sees Hamas for what it is, a terror organization cum political party.

So now the UN must treat Hamas as a pariah.
So the UN will continue to provide humanitarian assistance, but will not aid Hamas politicians.
Well done.



Kudos to Norway
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Even Norway has frozen aid to the new-Hamas led Palestinian government.
Even Norway.

Norway is one of the most passive countries in the world. It is a country that rarely takes a stand on any of the many issues confronting the world. What makes it all the more surprising is that on this particular issue, one that might put them at odds with the entire Muslim world, Norway is being bold and pro-active.

Norway bought into Israel's argument against Hamas.
And do you know why? Because Israel is correct.
Because Hamas has not moved one iota, one centimeter, one stitch from their stance on terror, on recognizing Israel or on honoring previous Palestinian Authority agreements.

Norway wants two states. Israel wants two states. Most of Europe wants two states.
Hamas wants one state.
Kudos to Norway.



Don't Mess With Congress
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Congress controls the purse strings.
The world knows that and nobody wants to tick off the United States Congress.
Well, the Palestinians have ticked off Congress.

Congress passed a law forbidding the allocation of any funds to the Palestinian Authority unless it can be proved that the funds do not go towards sponsoring terror. But Congress also allowed for $400 million to go to the Palestinians for humanitarian aid.

But now things are different. Hamas was elected on January 25 and did nothing to alter their terrorist image. They were sworn in last week and still, Hamas is a terrorist organization. If Hamas is a terrorist organization, and if Hamas is the ruling government in the Palestinian Authority, then de facto, any money given to the PA is money given to sponsor terror or terrorist organizations.
As of yesterday Congress is suspending all but $100 million in indirect aid.

$300, 000,000 gone. The money was for infrastructure, information and technology, local governmental, judicial, communal and electoral needs and vocational training. The remaining $100,000,000 will be very carefully doled out and even that money may be pulled at any time.

The financial squeeze on Hamas just might have an impact.
We are starting to see some cracks in their once impenetrable wall.



Saudis Still Boycott Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 6, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Congress does not often pass a unanimous bill. It did yesterday.
The bill urged President Bush to demand that Saudi Arabia live up to its commitment and drop the boycott against Israel.

Dropping the boycott against Israel was a condition the United States made before supporting the move enabling Saudi Arabia to join the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Members of the WTO are supposed to provide each other preferred treatment in trade and culture.
Israel and Saudi Arabia are both members of the WTO.

The US reminded the Saudis of their commitment six months ago.
In response, the House of Saud hosted a meeting of the parties who police and enforce the boycott.

The White House is ignoring the breached agreement.
Saudi Arabia is ignoring their commitment.

This is unacceptable - blame goes to both sides.



Saudi Prisoner in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

This is real:
Israel is holding a Saudi prisoner named Abdul Rahmna al Eiteiwi in Ramla prison.
Al Eiteiwi was caught crossing into Israel from Jordan in 2005 en route to perpetrate a terror attack.
Saudi Arabia wants him back.
They are petitioning the Red Cross, the Red Crescent, and the United Nations.
Al Eiteiwi is on a hunger strike.
Two weeks ago a committee of ethicists in the Israeli Prison Authority determined that the prisoner should be moved to the infirmary and force-fed.

This is surreal:
Saudi Arabia is urging Hamas to warm their stance toward Israel, but the Saudis themselves will not even talk to Israel to get their citizen out.
Israel says that al Eiteiwa is seeking asylum in Israel, but in reality he is an enormous intelligence asset for Israel.
If the deal goes through and the Saudi is returned home, the deal brokers will want something in return from Saudi Arabia.
So will Israel, that's the way this type of back channel diplomacy works.

It's happening in the Middle East, but it's made for Hollywood.



US Bank Boycott
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The United States and the West watched Hamas swear in its government.
Now what?

The US has suspended official relations with the Palestinian Authority.
But the US will still conduct discussions with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
And the US is still trying to pressure Hamas and the Palestinians to accept Israel and reject violence.

The United States has a new still undisclosed plan.
This time, the plan might just work.
Bank Boycotts.
The United States has a plan to boycott and sanction banks that hold Palestinian money.

Arab banks have just gotten wind of the plan. Their preemptive response is to convince the Palestinians to bank elsewhere out of fear of being hit by US sanctions.

Banks and markets are very sensitive to reputations and to threats.
If the US has the guts to really go ahead and implement this plan they may accomplish far more than they would by cutting off aid to the Hamas-led government.



Iran's New Missile
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the Iranians tested a new rocket the Fajr-3.
Fajr means "victory" in Farsi Persian.

This rocket is said to be extremely special.
First, similar to a Russian missile, it is supposed to be undetected by radar. Second, it has multiple warheads and can hit several different targets.

If all this is true then, once again, Iran is proving how advanced they are in weapon development.

There is another possibility.
The Fajr-3 may not be an Iranian-developed missile at all, but a Russian weapon that Iran test fired.
If so, that means the Iranians have several sophisticated rockets but they cannot produce an unlimited supply of them.
A small consolation.

Either way, the nuclear issue is just one of the many activities taking place in Iran that we must carefully watch.



The True Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 31, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the new Palestinian government has been sworn in, the gloves are off and the "real" Hamas is emerging.

For example, yesterday Mahmoud al Zahar, the Hamas government's foreign minister, pulled a one-two punch.

In response to Canada's withdrawal of support for the Palestinians al Zahar said that it was no big deal because Canada did not contribute that much in the first place.

Then he proceeded to lambast the United States saying "America is committing big crimes against the Arab and Islamic countries." He said "This new decision will intensify the gap between the American people, American interests and the Middle East in general."

Sound familiar?
Mahmoud al Zahar was giving voice to a point of view held by much of the Arab and Muslim world.
The words were spoken by a Palestinian - but they echoed the sentiments that emanate from Syria and Iran. The clear indication is that the Palestinians, the Hamas-led Palestinians, have chosen sides.

Let the games begin.



Congratulations All Around
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Bush called. Blair called. Kofi Annan called.
The usual and the obvious obligatory congratulatory calls and messages came ringing through Ehud Olmert’s office after the Israeli election.
Nothing exceptional, nothing especially exciting.

The calls that didn't come in, however, convey more interesting reactions.
Amir Moussa, the head of the Arab League did not call, but he did release an official statement.
The message he sent was that the Arab League rejects the path of Ehud Olmert.

Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas Prime Minister, did not call with congratulations either. Like Amir Moussa, he had a message for Israel.
The gist of the message was that Israel cannot determine the borders of an Arab country.

Sorry Hamas, sorry Arab world, but unless you accept the right of Israel to exist, unless you negotiate with Israel, that is exactly what Israel - de facto - is doing and will continue to do.
And I highly doubt that any Arab entity will reject whatever land Israel chooses to give.



Palestinian Message to Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 27, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh both had messages for the Israeli people on the eve of their election.

Abbas said that Israel must recognize the new Palestinian leadership.
Haniyeh, extending his hand to end the violence, said that Hamas is not interested in a "whirlpool of blood."

Good PR for Hamas, but what about reality?
Both men, through their messages to the people of Israel, placed the burden of peace on Israel - deflecting it from themselves, from their shoulders, from their people and politics.

Israel is doing the right thing by shunning Hamas.
Palestinian leadership still does not recognize that Hamas was and is still a terrorist organization and will continue to commit acts of terror as long as they are an organization.
Until Palestinian leadership accepts the truth, Israel cannot deal with them.



Get Out & Vote
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

What is the most important campaign issue for Israel's Tuesday election?
Not safety, not security.
Not Hamas or Israel's future borders.
Not even the economy.

The main issue, right now, is getting people to the polls.
That is the immediate goal and clarion call of all parties - Get Out And Vote.
A poor showing will hurt almost every party, especially the mainstream big parties Kadima, Labor, and Likud.

What will keep people away from voting booths?
Apathy coupled with indecision.
A lack of realistic, clear options coupled with an ingrained fear of the future.

Sharon carved out the middle, legitimized its voice and gave it direction.
But no one can guarantee that this vision will bring a better future for Israelis.



Hamas Interior Minister
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

People all around are doing their utmost to put a positive spin on Hamas.
Not Hamas people.
They tell it like it is.

Saeed Seyam is the new Palestinian Interior Minister and Chief of Security in the Palestinian Authority.
He outlines his mission:
"The day will never come when any Palestinian would be arrested because of his political affiliation or because of resisting the occupation."
He outlines his job description:
"Saeed Seyam did not come to the government to revive any security cooperation or to protect the occupation and their settlers. I came to protect our people and their fighters, to protect their trees, their properties and their capabilities."

Interpret these words in the spirit in which they were spoken.
Hamas wants to destroy Israel.
Hamas will do nothing to prevent attacks against Israel.
Hamas will facilitate attacks against Israel.



Iran Gives: Here's Why
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz revealed that Iran transferred $1.8 million to Islamic Jihad last month.
The money went from Iran through Syria to Gaza.

Now no one should be surprised that Iran gave Islamic Jihad the money.
The surprise is that Iran gives away very little money away and $1, 800,000 is a lot of money and a very large increase in Iranian funding. So why did they do it?

Reliable threat assessment conducted over the past month points to the probability that Iran and Syria will attempt to attack Israel before the March 28 elections. The assumption is that a large terror attack will destabilize Israel.
The assumption is wrong.

Terror does not destabilize Israel, terror unifies Israel and makes Israel more defiant.
As opposed to giving 1.8 million in humanitarian aid, Iran gave it to murder Israelis.
The truth: Iran does not care about Palestinians, Iran cares about killing Israelis.



Internet in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

There are an estimated 500,000 people in Syria in defiance of the government.
What are they doing?
They are going on-line, they are the internet users of Syria.

The vast majority of Syrian internet users keep themselves so cloaked in secrecy that the government does not know who they are and cannot track what they are viewing. And what are they viewing? Many of them are viewing anti-government material.

A strong and vibrant anti-Syrian movement exists within Syria. Participants risk life and limb, literally, or will be subject to long prison terms not just for writing critically of the government, but even for reading critique written by others.
Sites like "all4syria" and "champress" and "heretics blog" would never make it onto government sponsored media.

The numbers are significant.
These are the people who represent the future of Syria. The question now is how to move them from readers to actors on the stage of Syrian reform.

The internet might be the most powerful force for revolt in Damascus.



Haniyeh Is A Terror Leader
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

CBS's David Hawkins just interviewed Ismail Haniyeh, the future prime minister of the Palestinian Authority.
Haniyeh said he never participated in or ordered any terrorist attack. The exact quote, in translation, goes: "I've never sent anyone on a suicide mission."

If the future Palestinian leader isn't a classic example of guilty by association - who is?
Haniyeh admits that Hamas perpetrates terror - but not by his orders.
Haniyeh says that he is not involved in the terror perpetrated by Hamas - only he is one of the key leaders of Hamas.

Unless Haniyeh has tried, actively and forcefully tried, to encourage Hamas to reject terror and violence then he - personally - represents a terror organization and that means, unequivocally, that he is a terrorist leader.

Haniyeh can say whatever he wants - it is his deeds that determine what he is. Hamas still embraces terror, Haniyeh is their leader, ergo, Ismail Haniyeh is a terrorist.



The World: Like An Old Film
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Some times world events are so out of whack, perceptions are so far from reality, it makes me feel as if we're living out scenes from old movies.

Read what Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on Thursday after his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem:
"We have agreed to work together to prevent and to stop illegal arms trafficking in the region, including in Palestine and Iraq."
I am flabbergasted.

Russia and Syria are partners in arms trade.
Russia and Syria provide most of the illegal weapons in the region.
Russia and Syria are the reason that many terrorists in Iraq have weapons.
Russia and Syria are why Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have weapons.

I am reminded of that famous scene in Casablanca where the local police commissioner is ordered by the Germans to close down Rick's Cafe ... he says, "I am shocked, shocked to see that there is gambling going on ..."
Then he asks for his winnings.



Iran's Point of No Return
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Is Iran ready to produce a nuclear bomb right now? Can they do it tomorrow?
No, they can't.
But each step they take, each unchecked technological development, brings the day Iran has a bomb closer and closer.

Right now, Iran might be 5-10 years away from having a nuclear bomb. But the "point of no return" is a month to a few years away.
That point was confirmed by Robert Joseph, a senior U.S. State Department official, at a House of Representatives discussion on Iran.

That point is too close for comfort.
That is why it is so important to address the problem head on and immediately. At the "point of no return" it will be impossible to turn back Iranian technology.
The best policy is to keep them at bay, to make certain that Iran is just that far away from developing the next step.
If Iran is permitted to develop energy alternatives the "point of no return" will have been reached.

Verification. Spot inspections. Involvement. Iran must be stopped.



Mubarak Blackmails EU
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak all but threatened a group of European Union foreign ministers who had informally gathered in Salzburg yesterday.

Mubarak, a rather imposing man, informed the foreign ministers that not giving aid to the Palestinians will create terror. His exact words were:
"The aid is used by the man in the street to buy medicine and to send his children to school. If this money is cut, terrorism will grow and all the people will suffer."

Mubarak did not stop there. He asked the EU representatives to move on and accept Hamas.
"Hamas was elected by the Palestinian people and Israel must recognize that it can form a new government. The renunciation of Hamas of violence and its recognition of preceding engagements is for a second stage."

Mubarak is a wise and wily man. He knows that his words carry weight and he weighs each word. That he is seen as the key to getting to Hamas.

If Mubarak manages to sway the EU then Hamas and terror will have won by changing the West's perspective on who terrorists are and what terror is.
If that happens, terror will have become an acceptable tool of Western politics.
We cannot let that happen.



Underground In Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunday Telegraph of Britain just unveiled that Iran has completed an underground Command Control Center deep underneath Teheran.
No one should be surprised.

The Command Control Center is connected to a series of tunnels that lead to and from various ministries and religious centers above ground.
Certainly, by building the complex below ground the Iranians thought that it had a better chance of going undetected.
But the real reason for an underground command complex in Teheran is to protect Iran's leadership from an assault and to allow the leadership to continue to direct and govern even if under attack.
Iran is preparing for an attack by the West.

In many ways Iran is a backwards society, but in just as many ways they are a highly sophisticated scientific society.
We must never lose sight of the whole Iranian picture.



EU is Spineless
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Is the European Union about to take a stand against Hamas?
If you listen to what member nations are saying, the answer would be yes.
If you watch what member nations are doing, you probably will come away unconvinced.

EU foreign ministers met on Friday. They declared that the European Union will cut all aid to the newly-controlled, Hamas-led, Palestinian Authority: "unless it seeks peace by peaceful means."
The EU spokesperson went so far as to say: "we will not go soft on our principles."

I find these statements hard to believe. As a general observation, the EU usually goes soft when it comes to principles. Specifically, when it comes to the Palestinians, the actions of the EU to date can best be characterized as spineless. They are certainly not a united front when it comes to the Palestinians. Several European Union member nations have already declared their desire to support humanitarian activities within the PA and to give Hamas time to prove themselves as political, not terrorist, leaders.

We must wait and see.
Actions really do speak louder than words.



Politically Unwise Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas recently declared that he hopes acting prime minister Ehud Olmert becomes the next Israeli Prime Minister.

This was truly the utterance of a foolish politician.
No foreign leader should poke their nose into the workings of a stable democracy.
Of course, Abbas was stating the obvious.
Olmert will certainly be the next Israeli prime minister but in making that politically unwise statement Abbas has achieved exactly the opposite of what he stated.

Israel's Labor Party is the ideal pro-peace partner for the Palestinians. Now Labor is perceived to have been stabbed in the back by the ruling Palestinians. So why vote for Labor? Labor will now lose electoral support.
On the other side of the spectrum, Likud has run with the Abbas statement saying: see, we told you, even Abbas realizes that Kadima is leftist.

Labor loses. Kadima loses. Even if Likud wins this round, they are losers.

So now I'm wondering.
Abbas probably does not want an agreement with Israel.
Is he smart enough to have done this all intentionally?
Nah ... no way.



Hamas Sees Itself as Liberal
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has told al Qaeda to butt out, to take a hike, to leave them alone.
Unofficially and politely, but firmly, never-the-less.

Here's what happened:
A video of al Qaeda's inimitable number 2 man, Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, was circulated over the weekend.
The video had Zawahiri proclaiming and sermonizing on morality, on Islamic fundamentals and on the chosen path for newly-elected political Hamas.

In response:
One Hamas spokesman said: "Hamas believes that Islam is completely different to the ideology of Mr. al Zawarhiri."
Another Hamas spokesman, this one in Gaza, said: "Our battle is against the Israeli occupation and our only concern is to restore our rights and serve our people. We have no links with any group or element outside Palestine."
On al Jazeera Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar said: that Hamas was elected through its moderate approach to Islam, which did not compare to al Qaeda's exclusionary tactics. "We are not a movement that labels people infidels or that abandons them. We are a movement that lives the realities of the people and that uses wisdom ... to turn them to Islam."

Did you ever, even in your wildest dreams, think that Hamas would be labeled as "liberal" ?!



Al Qaeda Unites The Muslims
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda needs to show a Muslim world that is strong and united in The War Against The West.

Two recent world events have presented al Qaeda - as if on a silver platter - with the opportunity for open battle.
Event # 1: the twelve editorial caricatures depicting Mohammad
Event # 2: the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian election

Zawahiri, one of al Qaeda's undisputed top guns, has offered us true insight into the way al Qaeda views these world events.

About the caricatures Zawahiri said:
"They did it on purpose and they continue to do it without apologizing, even though no one dares to harm Jews or to challenge Jewish claims about the Holocaust nor even to insult homosexuals."

About Hamas Zawahiri said:
the previous Palestinian leadership has "sold Palestine." He said "recognizing those people (Jews) is against Islam's principles. They (previous Palestinian leadership) are criminals in the Islamic balance." "Palestine is not their property that they (the PA) can give up."

Zawahiri is not deluded. Zawahiri is not confused.
Zawahiri is perpetuating a theme of US versus THEM.
Al Qaeda needs the Muslim world to be united against the West, against the US and Israel.
The West needs to truly understand the al Qaeda message.



Hamas is in Denial
By Micah Halpern

Saturday, March 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Hamas diplomatic team concluded their meetings with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
Hamas came away pleased.
They feel as if Russia is mentoring them, big brother style.

I have come away perplexed.

One member of the delegation, Ezzat el Resheq, told Reuters that Hamas would consider an extension of the ceasefire with Israel if Israel "ended its aggression, assassinations and arrests and freed Palestinian prisoners."
The "ball is in Israel's court" said el Resheq.

To be polite, I'll just say that Hamas is in a delusional state of denial.
The ball is exclusively in Hamas' court.
Israel got out of Gaza.
Israel recognized a future Palestinian State.
Has Hamas forgotten all that?
It is time for the Palestinians to reform.
Hamas must reject violence.
Hamas must recognize Israel and join the civilized nation of the world.

After that happens, the ball will be in play. Will Russia be there to referee?



Jordan Knows
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

A terrorist suicide attack was thwarted by Jordanian authorities yesterday.
This is not the first attack the Jordanians have prevented.
Since January Jordan's secret intelligence service has intercepted and defused several other potentially devastating attacks.

Jordan knows that they are high on the al Qaeda list of targets.
Jordan does not want a repeat of the horror of November 2005 when 60 people were killed by terrorists while attending celebrations at three hotels.
Jordan knows that al Qaeda wants to depose their monarchy and so the monarchy has declared war against al Qaeda.

Why haven't other Muslim countries declared war on al Qaeda?
Because they believe that terror serves an important purpose.
Because they believe that terrorists can be used as a calming agent to control their own "streets."
Because anti-West, anti-America, anti-Israel rage instigated by terror organizations will be vented on the "street" and not directed back home.

Jordan knows better.
Jordan knows that terrorists destroy everyone they touch.
Jordan knows that no good can ever come of terror or terrorists.
Why don't other Muslim countries know that?



Allah's Wrath in Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday at 11:01 local time in Iran, 600 miles south of Tehran, an earthquake struck. It measured 5.8 on the Richter Scale.

When Katrina hit the Gulf Coast Iranian religious leadership was quick to claim that it was Allah's wrath that was wreaking havoc on George Bush and on American sinners.
I have yet to hear the Muslim justification of yesterday's earthquake.
Actually, this was just one of many quakes to hit Iran and I have never heard a Mullah claim that the earthquakes wreaking havoc on Iranians are Allah's way of exacting vengeance on Muslims for their impure acts.

Look at the numbers:
February 2005 an earthquake registering 6.4 killed 612 Iranians.
December 2003 an earthquake registering 6.6 killed 23,000 Iranians and totally destroyed the ancient city of Bam.
Yesterday’s epicenter was only 80 miles away from an urban center.

These are quakes that could easily be turned into mythic lore and legend.
Maybe, just maybe, Allah was sending Iran a message.
Maybe Allah was warning Iran to conform to international nuclear inspections.
Or else.



Hamas Has Been Accepted
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 28, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

It happened.
Rather than ostracizing Hamas, the world has accepted Hamas and is laying out the welcome mat for the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.

The US just congratulated the EU on their promise of $143 million in emergency aid to the Palestinians.
Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi just complimented Russia for embracing Hamas.
France ... the United Nations ... the list goes on.

In due course, Hamas will be embraced by the entire Western world, to think otherwise is to misunderstand world diplomacy.
At this point it does not matter that Hamas is a terrorist organization, that fact – by now - has been overlooked.

The free world, Israel included, was outsmarted and outplayed by Hamas.
Rather than pushing Hamas' buttons, bombarding them with the tough language and military strikes that would have forced Hamas to show their true motives and acknowledge their agenda - the annihilation of Israel - Israel permitted Hamas to proceed with a humanitarian platform.

There is no turning back now.



Russia - Iran Agree on Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

We saw it coming.
Iran and Russia have announced a partial compromise on the issue of nuclear power. They have come up with a short term resolution that will also begin the process of easing the tensions that have sparked between Iran and the West.

Let's put this in perspective:
Russia is highly invested in the development of energy in Iran.
Russia is heavily invested in Iranian oil field development.
More important is the Russian investment in nuclear development -Russia is a billion dollar investor in Iran's nearly complete Busher nuclear facility.

While this agreement pleases other Western countries the agreement itself is based on mutual self-interest, not on world or even on regional stability.
The fact that a byproduct of this agreement results in regional or perhaps even world stability is nearly irrelevant to the parties (even though Russia has a slightly more enlightened vision of world affairs than does Iran).

Russia and Iran are in agreement that a mutual agreement is in their own best national and financial interests.
Yes, the agreement will be violated BUT within the context of an agreement and that point is crucial to our understanding of future events.

Mutual benefit - the only way to begin to resolve a diplomatic problem with Iran.



Russia & Iran: The Good News
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Most people have never heard of Sergei Kiriyenko.
S-E-R-G-E-I K-I-R-I-Y-E-N-K-O, a name to remember.
He is the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency.

Kiriyenko and a team of Russians arrived in Teheran on Thursday for serious talks concerning Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
The Russians are recommending a compromise. The Russians are recommending that they supervise Iran's uranium enrichment in Russia or even in Teheran.

The mere fact of Kiriyenko's presence at such a meeting means that the negotiations are not purely diplomatic, that they are not only window dressing for the world. Kiriyenko's presence signals a working meeting, a rational, practical, effort dealing with the process of enrichment and the issue of nuclear energy.

This is an important step.
This may be the first step in the resolution of what can easily become an international incident.
This is good news.



Iraqi Violence
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 24, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The current wave of violence pounding Iraq is misunderstood by Western minds and hearts.

Tensions, violence, even persecution and mass murder are all part of the long-standing history of Shiite/Sunni relations.
This latest round is not new and it will certainly not end just because of a governmental agreement in Iraq.
This is not the first flare-up since the US invaded Iraq. What is truly amazing is that there have not been a greater number of violent outbreaks these last years.

Westerners think that Muslims are Muslims and they all share religious values and principles, that they are united. They do not.
Shiites and Sunnis have killed one another for centuries specifically because of the differences between them.
Shiites believe that Sunnis are heretics and have abused and destroyed Islam. Sunnis believe that Shiites have bastardized the teachings of the Prophet Muhammad.

Shiites and Sunnis will not live together in peace.
They cannot.
Their doctrines will not allow for peace without mutual benefit.
If the West wants to bring about change the West must create a scenario that is mutually beneficial to both Muslim sects.



The Daggers Are Out In Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Jordan have had some words. Literally.

In an off-the-record briefing Yair Naveh, the general in charge of Israel's Central Command, said that Jordan's stability was uncertain.

Jordan was not happy.

But given the issues in the region and the population of Jordan - a majority of whom are Palestinians, the comment by the Israeli general should not have come as a surprise.

The reality is that now that Hamas is in power Palestinians across the Jordan River are looking carefully at the Hashemite (i.e. Jordanian) Kingdom.

Some Jordanians are even thinking of ways to overthrow the King.
Certainly, al Qaeda is plotting to overthrow King Abdallah.
And anyone in Iraq with a desire to hurt the West would use Jordan as a stepping stone.

Why take it out on Naveh? Because it is easier to shoot the messenger than to confront the problem head-on.
Jordan is well aware of the threats against the empire.
They are acting upon and reacting to those threats.
They will do everything to protect the regime.
But the Jordanians want to keep things quiet, they do not want to make this into a public issue.

I have faith in Jordan's king ... but the daggers are out.



Muslims and Holocaust Denial
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 22, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

David Irving, The Holocaust Denier, was just sentenced to 3 years in an Austrian prison for writing and promoting the falsehood that there were no gas chambers in the Auschwitz.

The Muslim world sees a double standard here.
The Muslim world is up in arms because of Irving's sentence.
The Muslim world wants to know where the sacrosanct value of freedom of expression is?
The Muslim world is equating Irving's crime with the 12 Danish caricatures of Mohammed that have caused a stir throughout Europe and the Muslim world.

There is no parallel.
Irving was found guilty of distributing false information, blatant lies, knowing that they were not true in order to achieve a personal goal - Holocaust Denial.
The caricatures were a political critique, a bold gesture in response to a situation in which artists were personally afraid to draw and depict The Prophet.

Irving was selling a false product.
The drawings were editorial comment.



New British Law Will Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 19, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The British House of Commons has passed a law making it illegal to "glorify terror."
Significant legislature or fancy rhetoric?

The fact that the House of Commons put this law into writing is significant, very significant. It is another essential tool enabling democratic countries in the fight against terror.

Students of British law will know that Britain already has a law prohibiting the fostering of terror. Is this new law redundant?
There is a nuanced difference between this new law and the old law.
This law deals with glorifying terror in the past and in the present while the old law speaks only of past acts.

Doesn't this law limit freedom of expression? It does, but it limits a personal freedom in order to protect the masses by allowing authorities to clamp down on the sermonizers and charismatic motivators of terror in England.

Freedom has it limits.
The primary role of a democracy is the preservation of that democracy.
This new law honors and upholds the democratic principles.



Russia Sells Guns
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Why is Russia so eager to embrace Hamas?
The answer is shockingly simple.

Today's Russia is in the business of expanding its market.
And Russia has only one significant export.
Weapons - old, new, antiquated even nuclear weapons.
That is what Russia has and that is what Russia is selling.

So who's buying?
Iran. Syria.
And new to the market, Hamas.
Russia needs to court and then cement relations with potential customers.

Russia knows how dangerous it is to trade in weapons. So to assuage their business conscience they ask each party to sign an agreement not to use the weapons for terror or for acts of war.

Yeah, right.



How Trustworthy Is Iran?
By Micah Halpern

Friday, February 17, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Islamic Republic of Iran is a signator on the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty.
And now they are asserting their membership.
They will use the treaty as a way to protect themselves from Western aggression.

Iran is not the only problematic country to sign the Treaty.
North Korea was also a signator and went on their merry way and developed nuclear weapons.

The problem is the Treaty.
The Nuclear Proliferation Treaty actually allows members to explore alternatives for nuclear energy and it allows them to develop nuclear energy alternatives - that includes uranium enrichment. It does not include HIGHLY enriched uranium which has only one use. The litmus test determining if a country is moving from energy to weapons is administered by the IAEA.

The treaty also talks about "trustworthiness."
That is a little harder to quantify.
We need to acknowledge the weaknesses of the Treaty.
We need to say simply but emphatically: "Iran is not trustworthy."



Denmark Says No
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 16, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Danish government has said that they will not apologize for the Muhammad-inspired cartoons originally published in Danish newspapers.

I agree with their decision.
They are 100% correct.
The Danes did nothing wrong.
The Danish government has no influence over, responsibilty for or power to control their press - it is a free press.

The Danish government said that an apology would do no good.

Once again, 100% correct.
It would appear that the only act that would appease radical Muslims would be a disappearing act. Have this Denmark disappear and become an Islamic state.

100% not likely.



Hamas Is Welcomed
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Venezuela has welcomed Hamas leaders "with pleasure."
That is their quote, not mine.

International acceptance of the rogue Hamas-led Palestinian state has begun.
It works this way:
Established host countries welcome new leaders, they extend their government's support, they share ideas and brainstorm about ways to expand horizons, they network.
It's called diplomacy.

This process is frightening.
Hamas' chief diplomat is Khaled Mashal. Mashal does not live in the PA, he lives in Damascus. Why? Because the chief PA diplomat is a terrorist and according to treaty he is not permitted entry into the Palestinian Authority.

I couldn't make these things up.



Hamas on High Alert
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The times, they are a changing.

A member of Hamas has been kidnapped.
OK, he was kidnapped by members of Fatah, but the shoe is just about almost on the other foot.

The kidnapped man is thought to have shot and killed a Palestinian policeman in a recent shootout.
Palestinian Authority police grabbed him to make a point: Don't mess with us.

Hamas is now on high alert.
They want their guy back.

Stay tuned.



Israel's National Pastime
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 12, 2006

I've Been Thinking

Archeology is a national pastime for Israelis.
Historical finds are front page news stories in Israel.
It is as if the nation proclaims its right to exist through historical facts on the ground.

Before any building takes place in Israel, a highway a hotel or even a swimming pool, a salvage dig is required to ascertain that no great historical find will be destroyed in the process.

Just recently, while constructing a highway near the ancient Philistine city of Gat, a remarkable, 6000 year old archeological site was unearthed. The site was filled with pottery, sculpture, jewelry, icons. Everything was in mint condition.

What's my point?
Sometimes, we loose track of the fact that amidst the drama and conflict surrounding contemporary Israel a tremendous ancient history lies buried.



Annan Condemns Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 10, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan recently condemned Israel's targeted killings of terrorist leaders as "executions without trial."
If only he paid attention to nuance, rather than generalizations, Annan would understand the difference between targeted killings by Israel and executions.

Over the past week Israel has seen a serious increase in terrorist activity. In the aftermath of one attack, Israel successfully captured twelve suicide bombers.
By interrogating these captives Israel receives fresh intel that they can act on immediately in the hope of preventing or subverting the next terrorist attacks.

YES, the terrorists are not tried, but the attacks are NOT vengeance.
They attacks are a way of preventing future attacks and of destroying the command control apparatus of terrorist networks.

Targeted attacks are one of the only tools that a democracy has with which to combat terror.
I wonder. Would Annan prefer that Israel simply play the quiet victim?



Finally 2 Muslim Leaders Raise Their Voices
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Finally.
Muslim leaders are beginning to speak out and condemn the wave of "extremist" destruction and anger that has enveloped the Muslim world this past week.
Until now Muslim leaders have been silent, complicit and even sponsors of the riots.

Hassan Wirajuda, the foreign minister of Indonesia - the most populace Muslim country in the world - condemned the violence and called for a stop to the rioting.
Mohammed Usman, a Muslim leader in Afghanistan and a member of the highly respected Ulla Council said "we condemn the cartoon ... but these rioters are defaming the name of Islam."

The rioting in countries with large Muslim populations is divided into three.
* Western democracies like Denmark, Germany, Belgium and France.
The Muslim press and Muslim leaders are using free speech to stoke the flames and ignite anger. These riots are under control because the police are on hand.

* Liberal Muslim monarchies and dictatorships like Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
These governments are protesting publicly to Denmark about the cartoons and have made known their stand permitting them to now tacitly allow rioters to take to the streets under hidden control with the police nearby.

* Harsh Muslim dictatorships like Syria and Iran.
Here the protests are actually organized by the state and controlled by the police. The state controlled press is fueling the public and urging their citizens to take to the streets to protest the West.

This is revolutionary. Muslim leaders do not often go against the mainstream.



Germany Releases 9-11 Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The only person to be convicted for his role in 9-11 was ordered to be released from a German prison yesterday. He was serving a 7 year sentence.

It is quite a saga.
Mounir el Motassadeq from Morocco was arrested, tried, convicted and then released when his sentence was overturned. Then he was tried again, convicted again and now released again.
No reason has been given explaining the release.

The 31 year old Moroccan has been convicted twice for being a member of a terrorist organization. He admits that he was friends with the terrorist cell in Hamburg but will not elaborate on the relationship. We know that his role included paying the tuition for the 9-11 terrorists that allowed them to remain in Germany posing as students but really planning the mother of all terrorist attack against the West.

This reads like a comedy, plays like a circus, and is a real life sham.
Something is wrong in Germany.



Carrot & Stick Iran
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has spelled out his country's plan for dealing with Iran and with Iranian nuclear aspirations.

Lavroy made two important statements:
"I think that at the current stage, it is important not to make guesses about what will happen and even more important not to make threats."
"...what we must underline is that there are the decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Security Council has been informed and will not take any action in the immediate future."

Russia wants to appease Iran.
Russia does not want to threaten Iran or to jeopardize Russian interests in Iran.

The United States believes in applying threats and pressure.
The United States believes in pressuring even to the point of threatening the use of force.

To my thinking, the best way of dealing with Iran right now would be a combination of Russian and United States techniques.
Go with the carrot and the stick method: use Iranian-friendly countries as the carrot applying non-threatening pressure and have the greater international community carry the stick, slamming down hard on Iran if they do not cease and desist.



Israel Gives Hamas $43 Mill
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel made an important decision today.
They decided to transfer 200,000,000 NIS (that would be 43 million in dollars) to the Hamas led Palestinian government.

Why? Tax money.
Money that Israel collected this month for products that came through Israeli ports and then went to the Palestinian Authority.
The rest of the Western world is cutting off funding to the Palestinians and Israel, the country with the most to lose, is sending money to the Palestinians.

I am appalled, I am astounded. After the Hamas victory I suggested that Israel put the money in escrow until a responsible party comes to power in the PA.
I think this was a bad decision.
Do not ever give money to your enemy - it is not just bad policy, it is self-destructive behavior.



US Sentences Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

United States courts are starting to hear cases about people aiding terrorists.
On Thursday the US Federal Court for the Southern District of New York sentenced a Lebanese-Canadian man named Naji Antoine Abi Khalil. He was convicted of money laundering and attempting to sell weapons to Hezbollah.

He was selling night vision goggles and infrared scopes for M-16's.
He received 57 months for his offenses.

Abi Khalil had an accomplice who pled guilty last year and is still awaiting sentencing. The name of the accomplice is Tomer Grinberg. He is an Israeli.
Yes, an Israeli was working together with a Lebanese arms dealer to sell weapons to the terrorist organization Hezbollah, the same Hezbollah that regularly attacks Israel.

Try and figure that one.



A Fool in Nablus
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 3, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

A fool is someone who does not learn from mistakes.
A fool is someone who chooses to repeat a mistake hoping for a different result.

A German national who teaches English to Palestinians in the Palestinian Authority is a fool. Yesterday, he was kidnapped from his hotel in Nablus at gunpoint. He has since been freed. The English teacher says he is going to stay put, he is going to continue teaching English. He says that he was not hurt by his kidnappers and that his kidnappers do not represent the Palestinians.

Perhaps, but he WAS taken at gunpoint by masked men who held machine guns to his head and chest and the abduction occurred while he was sitting at a table with Palestinians and the entire hotel staff watched and no one said BOO.

Sound familiar? We saw this same behavior several months ago when a British aid worker and her visiting parents were kidnapped in Gaza. Once again, this is not a case of Stockholm syndrome.

This man is just plain foolish. I am certain he does not represent all Germans.



Russia Sells Guns to Syria
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

You can usually tell the character of a nation by the people they sell weapons to.

Russian Chief of Staff General Yuri Baluyevsky just finished a trip to Syria. He met with Syrian Chief of Staff Ali Habib as well as numerous other military and political leaders.
Russia is selling weapons to Syria.

Last year the Russians sold Syria SA-18 missiles. The SA-18 is designed to be shoulder mounted and portable. But the ones that Russia sold have been tailored and altered for 4x4 truck mounts. We don't know exactly what else has been sold to Syria.

A Baluyevsky source said: "We regard this as a very important visit on the strategic level."

Russia is playing both sides of the fence. They want to calm tensions yet they provide weapons and resources to the most problematic countries in the world. That list includes Iran.

The bottom line is that Russia cannot be trusted because the only reliable export they have is weapons.
But there is a silver lining.
Like any other weapons dealer, the Russians can be bought.
So, let us buy them.



Israel Won't Pay Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 30, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Every month Israel turns over about $43.5 million to the Palestinian Authority.
The money is taxes and import fees that Israel has collected.

Now that Hamas is in control, Israel will not turn over the money.
Israel cannot sponsor the terrorists bent on their destruction.

But the money belongs to the Palestinian Authority.
So what should Israel do? My suggestion is that Israel open escrow accounts and deposit the monies there. When terrorists are no longer in charge of the PA, the tax money and import fees should be turned over and properly delivered.

Israel has the moral right to protect itself.
This is a perfect example of that right.



Clinton and Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Former president Bill Clinton is offering us a perfect example of the myopia and weakness that characterized United States foreign policy during his tenure and that continues to hamper US foreign policy even today.

Clinton offered his thoughts on the landslide victory of Hamas in the Palestinian Legislature election.
Commenting on Hamas' call for the destruction of Israel, Clinton said:
"I think there's a way to work through this, yes. I think there's a way to get them into that, I mean I hope there is."

The lessons of Arafat and his leadership seem wasted on Clinton.
Words are irrelevant, it is actions that count in the world occupied by Arafat and Hamas.
Arafat was the most visited head of state to the Clinton White House. Arafat told Clinton exactly what Clinton wanted to hear but proceeded to do whatever he, Arafat, wanted to do. Again. And again. And again.

Now Hamas has hired spin doctors to spin their image.
We must use our eyes, not our ears, to evaluate the true Hamas message



Abbas Will Not Crack Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

It was supposed to be a magic day. It wasn't.
It was supposed to be the day Palestinian people said yes to democracy. They did not.
It was the day that the Palestinian people democratically elected Hamas to power.
It happened because the United States, the Europeans and even the Israelis let it happen.
Shame on them all.

There were high hopes for the Palestinian elections. Misplaced hopes. No matter how you count it, no matter the final numbers, the true winners are Hamas. This avowed terrorist organization is now a real player in Palestinian politics. And Hamas is still sworn to the destruction of Israel and the perpetration of terror.

The US, the Europeans, Israel were saying that after the elections Abbas will crack down on Hamas. It's just another fantasy. If Abbas did not crack down before the elections, what incentive, what power, what clout do they think he has to do it now - after the people have spoken, after Hamas had such remarkable success in the elections.

This entire scenario was mis-played by the US, Israel and the entire West.
The world will suffer the ramifications of the Palestinian election of 2006.



Hamas Should Not Be Running
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 25, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the day for Palestinian elections.

And Condi Rice has just only just cautioned the Palestinian people to be aware when they go to the ballot box because "terrorism is not the pathway to peace."

Where has she been this entire time? Where has she been?

Why did the United States allow Hamas to join the ballot in the first place?

The Bush administration, it seems, has a very childish conception of democracy. Even in democracies there are exceptions, the President should know that.

The limits of democracy are set by the need to preserve the democratic spirit.

A democracy cannot and should not be voted out of existence even if the masses desire, through their election choice, to do so.

That was the lesson learned from Hitler's election and his rise to power.

Democracies must defend themselves from anti-democratic forces and tendencies. Racist parties, parties preaching violence and parties that promote the destruction of others (Israel) should be banned from democratic election.

Hamas should not be on the ballot today.



Hamas Recognize Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 23, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Over the weekend the London Arabic paper al Shark al Awsat ran an interview with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Geit. The content shocked me.

The interview quotes Egypt's foreign minister as saying that after the Palestinian election this week Hamas will recognize Israel. He said this in light of the cease fire that has been in place over the past few months asking: "with whom was the agreement - a ghost."

I understand his point.
Hamas already had an agreement with Israel so it will be easy for them to normalize relations once they have power in the Palestinian government.
The problem is that Hamas has not even hinted at this.
Actually just the opposite, there have been consistent and constant messages from Hamas as to how they will cut off all relations with Israel.
There have even been Hamas religious leaders forbidding their worshippers from voting because the end result will be to force relations and compromise with Israel.

We'll see, it's only a matter of days.



Syria's Rants
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 22, 2006

I've Been thinking:

Bashar Assad, the president of Syria, has accused Israel of assassinating Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat in November 2004.
Assad made this claim while addressing a Syrian lawyer's convention.

Crazy? Well, that's open to debate.
But there definitely is a method to Assad's madness.
Assad wants to circle the wagons and deflect attention from himself within the Arab and Muslim world.
Pressure is being brought upon Assad to cooperate with the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri.
He is lambasting Israel in the hopes of gaining Muslim sympathy.

This accusation cannot and will not create a stir - not because the world is not amenable to anti-Israel conspiracy theories, because this source is not credible.
Those who already believe the theory will continue to believe it, but Assad will not convince a single additional person.

Israel's Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz put it bluntly. He said. "Assad is an ophthalmologist who cannot see."



China, Russia & Iran
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 21, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

As of now it appears highly doubtful that the United Nations Security Council will address the issue of Iran and nuclear capability.

The Iranians know that they are now safe from censure and pressure.
They are not afraid. Here's why:
* Simply enriching uranium for a reactor is not a violation of the nuclear proliferation treaties.

* Of the permanent members on the Security Council it is unlikely that China will vote to place sanctions on Iran, they run up a $70 billion a year oil bill with Iran.

* Russian is invested in Iran to the tune of 10's of billions of dollars. The new Iranian reactor is being helped along with $1 billion from Russia and they just sold $1 billion in missiles to Iran.

With the UN out of the picture, is there any way to get through to Iran?
There is. There is just one way.
Pressure must be brought on Iran from nations that do business with her.
The United States, and Great Britain, has no credibility in this matter.



Iranian President Visits Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 20, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Guess who is visiting Syria on a 2-day business trip?
The President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that's who.

Iran and Syria are strategizing and analyzing.
They are figuring out how to deal with the UN and with the Western pressure that is being brought upon them both.
They are determining who they can trust and who they should just ignore.
They are evaluating responses in anticipation of the scenarios that might arise.

Syria and Iran do not speak the same language. They have vastly different religious beliefs. They need translators. Actually, they have little in common.
They are united in their desire to eliminate Israel.
They are united in their support for the Palestinians.
They are united in their distain for the West especially the United States.
They are united because they are both in the crosshairs of the UN and the West and they are now going to be called to task for their unjust deeds.

This working meeting is about strategy and about creating a game plan to outsmart the West. They just might pull it off.



Good For Tibi
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 19. 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmed Tibi, an Arab member of the Israeli Knesset, has responded to the assertion made by the President of Iran about the Holocaust.

Tibi said the idea that the Holocaust is a figment of Jewish imagination is "absurd, dangerous and morally problematic. Nazism was a crime against humanity ..."
This is the same Tibi who recently declared that Israel should not be a Jewish state, because it is offensive to the non-Jews who live there.

Iran is planning an international conference of Holocaust deniers. People from around the world who subscribe to this warped sense of reality will go to Teheran, pal around and share ideas.
Tibi thinks that the strong tendency towards Holocaust denial in Muslim culture is "absurd" because denying the Holocaust is blatantly false.
To deny an obvious historical fact is self-deceiving, even when it helps your political cause.

Ahmed Tibi is being intellectually honest.
That is worth mention.



More Reactors For Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 18, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just allocated $250 million for 2 new nuclear reactors.
For nuclear reactors, $250,000,000 is not nearly enough.

The cost of a new reactor is over $1 billion. That is the price the Russians put up to sponsor Iran's first nuclear reactor.

The new reactors are scheduled to be located in southern Iran in the provinces of Khuzestan and Bushehr.
All this is happening despite the fact that the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are getting closer to agreeing on the dangers Iran is presenting through her nuclear energy program.

Despite their enormous investment in Iran, even Russia is beginning to view Iran as a danger because the Iranians are non co-operative.
The lone holdout is China.
China is heavily dependent on Iranian oil.



Freed Accidently in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 15, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Phil Sands is one lucky man.
On December 26th the British freelance journalist was kidnapped in Iraq.
He was held for five days.
Sands wrote for the San Francisco Chronicle as well as the Dubai paper Emirates Today. The Chronicle just released his story.

In Iraq, it is unusual for kidnappers to free their hostages.
The only way to actually save lives is to find exactly where hostages are being held and raid the place.

Phil Sands was freed by accident.
US forces raided the farmhouse where he was being held and stumbled upon the hostage.
The US forces were there on another mission.
What a goof.
Had they been looking for him, they probably never would have found him.



Lebanon & Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Lebanon arrested 11 men, all connected to al Qaeda.

The arrested men were plotting attacks.
Attacks against the Lebanese.
Attacks against Western targets in Lebanon.
Attacks against Israel.

Lebanon also captured a boatload of weapons en route to terrorists.

Al Qaeda is trying to get a foothold in Lebanon. That is not unusual.
What is unusual is that al Qaeda is succeeding in their efforts in Lebanon.
It is a problem that must be addressed.
It is a problem for Lebanon, for Israel, for the West.
It is a problem for all liberal Muslim countries.
It is a problem that will not go away on its own.



The Saudis Had 2 Interesting Guests
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 13, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis hosted two important guests this week.
President Assad of Syria and Muqata al Sadr of Iraq came to visit.

Bashar Assad is facing tremendous international pressure to cooperate with the investigations concerning the role Syria played in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Lebanon.

Muqata al Sadr is the radical Shiite leader who led the uprising last year.

It seems that Saudi Arabia is trying to play peacemaker.
Saudi Arabia tried to influence Assad to cooperate with the investigation.
Saudi Arabia wanted to convince al Sadr that a continued period of Shiite quiet in Iraq is essential. The Saudi king wanted to emphasize how important cooperation, that it is the best way forward for everyone. The Sunni Saudi king extended his hand to show that Sunnis and Shiites can get along.

Saudi Arabia has its own agenda.
They know that the less trouble there is in the area, the more they will be left alone. The more they are left alone, the less pressure put on them to change their style of leadership and government.



Wake Up Europe
By Micah Halpern

WednesdayJanuary 11, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Finally. It is starting to happen. At least partially.
Europe has awakened to the threat from Iran and her nuclear plans.

The foreign ministers of England, France and Germany are - at long last - going to discuss how to pressure Iran to cease and desist in nuclear development.

This Iranian problem must be solved peacefully. About that there is no question. The threat of invasion hangs in the air.
It is highly unlikely that the United States will invade Iran.
Israel might, but only as a last resort.
That leaves Europe.

The free world must unite and start applying serious pressure on Iran.
Up until now, Iran has perceived everything - short of the threat of an Israeli attack - as bluster. So they act the way they act and talk the way they talk.

After the free world is united, support from the Muslim world can be solicited.
Everyone must be drafted into the effort to influence and reign in Iran.
Time is slipping away.



National Trauma Can Be Cathartic
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 9, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Where were you when Ronald Reagan was shot? What do you remember about the day John F. Kennedy was assassinated?

National trauma is often also nationally cathartic.
It mandates reflection.
It serves as an impetus for dialogue about a nation's past goals and future vision. It is a time for collective evaluation.
It is a time to question who you are as a people and what you are as a nation.

It happened, in Israel, after the Rabin assassination.
It is exactly what is happening in Israel today.
I wish Sharon a full recovery and yet I know that because of his stroke Israelis are taking a realistic look at their past and trying to identify their vision for the near and distant future.

Nerves are raw but real discussion and analysis occurs.
I call it assessment and re-assessment.
The end result is repair and rejuvenation.



Sharon Tutored Bush
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 8, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States have a big brother/little brother relationship. In almost every sphere, the US is the big brother, Israel the little brother. Not so in the sphere of world terror.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was the perfect partner for the United States in confronting the world wide threat of terror. Even as the Israeli prime minister lies in Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem this essential dimension of his leadership must be emphasized. Actually, from Sharon's point of view it was Bush who became partner, not the other way around.

Sharon and Israel saw terror as a world threat way before 9-11.
Sharon and Israel adopted a philosophy of zero tolerance before most American leaders had even heard the name Osama bin Laden. Sharon and Israel are the architects who constructed the lingo, the attitude and the operational style that the United States used in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Israel created the model, the United States built upon it.

Sharon and Bush saw eye to eye on the threat of terror. There are only a few leaders in the world that did not equivocate when it came to terror. It was a bond the two shared.

Ariel Sharon was the older, more experienced coach, tutoring his protege in the intricacies of the world in which terrorists live. George Bush, the younger, stronger, faster athlete recognized the threat, mastered the new techniques and then directly confronted the terror.

A good coach takes pride in the achievements of his star athlete.



Sharon Leagcy: Kadima's Future
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 7, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli elections are scheduled for March 28.
The elections were called because the Knesset and the government no longer reflected the direction Prime Minister Sharon was plotting. The Knesset could not stop him but neither could Sharon effectively move ahead.

The reality is that the masses in the country are exactly on Sharon's wavelength - smack dab in the middle.
The average Israeli is not an extremist and Sharon's party, Kadima, reflects just that thinking.
The alternatives to Kadima reflect the extreme sides of the political spectrum with Labor on the left and Likud on the right.
Sharon took from both ends and formed a middle, not a mushy middle, a real solid middle with a practical set of goals and aspirations.

We do not hear about the middle very often, but that is because it is not colorful. We cover the extremes, we cover the extremists, they are more entertaining. But Sharon gave voice to the middle. Now that voice will become the loudest, boldest, clearest voice in politics exactly because the man who gave it life is out of political power.
That will be the political legacy of Ariel "Arik" Sharon.



Sharon, Big Shoes to Fill
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 5, 2006 #2

I've Been Thinking:

I have been reminding myself ... Israel is a stable democracy, not a banana republic.
Israel will not spin into revolution or loose sight and direction.

Ariel Sharon set something in motion. Something that Israelis accept and believe in - he began the process of "reshaping the borders to better secure the country."

There is no one political person who can fill his big shoes. But they will fill smaller ones.
Things will move ahead, but they will move more slowly.

Bibi Netanyahu -- he may be leader of Likud, but he is not trusted by Israelis and will only gain slightly by this situation. He should not be considered a possible PM.

Ehud Olmert -- is now the temporary PM. He is no Sharon. But he may inherit the reins. He has experience. Israelis either love him or hate him or love to hate him.

Amir Peretz -- leader of the Labor party. He is a non issue.

Unknown possibilities -- it will be a horse race for political control. I do not expect any political unknowns to break from the gate.



Ariel Sharon: A Mythic Man
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 5, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

At this point I cannot even begin to conceive of an Israel without Ariel Sharon as its prime minister.
I will not predict the future, but I will recall the past. I will recall Ariel "Arik" Sharon's legacy to date.

Sharon, both as politician and as military man was a larger than life figure - not just in size but in vision. He always saw things differently than other leaders and trusted his own instincts over the advise of others.
Sharon was a mature leader, not just in years but in understanding. His greatest strength was problem solving, finding new and unique ways to solve those issues plaguing his people, his country, his own career.
Sharon had a charming personality, full of humor and a belly rippling laugh. He used his charm, not charisma but charm, to convince the masses of ... why he was correct ... why he changed his stance ... that always uppermost in his mind was a safer Israel.

If Ariel Sharon is no longer a presence in the Middle East it will be a great loss to the entire region. Ariel Sharon envisioned a future that only he could actualize. Ariel Sharon, man of mythic proportions.



Voting in East Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 4, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

The White House spokesman has issued a statement about Arabs in East Jerusalem and their participation in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections slated for January 25.

The Palestinian Authority is saying that if the Palestinian Arabs of East Jerusalem are not able to vote, there will be no election.
The White House says "we believe that people must have access to the ballot."

Once again, the White House has shown how little it really understands.
Here is the problem:
The area known as East Jerusalem is either still in dispute or it is under Israeli control.
Hamas and other vehemently anti-Israel parties are running in the election.
If the Arabs of East Jerusalem vote, Israel will effectively be allowing sworn enemies, bent on Israel's annihilation, to stand for election in an area Israel controls.

The issue is less about voting and more about the election and Hamas.
In recent local elections the problem was avoided - Hamas did not run and Arabs of East Jerusalem were allowed to vote.



Iran V Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 2, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just said that they will respond with a "crushing" blow if attacked by either Israel or the United States.

There is no doubt that Iran has the weapons ability to strike at Israel and at southern Europe. Talk about attacking the United States is groundless.
So why do they do it?
Bluster. To save face in the Muslim world. A propaganda tool to gain support.

Here we see the difference between democratic nations and totalitarian nations.
Israel, the United States and the West are not considering attacking Iran.
They are considering ways of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power with all that entails.

If there were to be a Western strike on Iran, the targets would not be people or populated areas, the targets would be missile silos, energy facilities and labs.
The counter threat by Iran against Israel is against all of Israel.
"Israel will suffer greatly. Israel is a very small country within our range."

The West must stop Iran before they get online with their nuclear program.
The entire situation could escalate very quickly, very easily, very dangerously.



Russian Missiles Hit Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 1, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's head of Military Intelligence just charged that the missiles shot into Israel by Hezbollah are Russian-made and that Hezbollah got the missiles from Syria.

Russia responded by saying that it was impossible. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "there are no and can be no grounds..." "The system of Russian weapons export is one of the safest." "The arms export control system we have developed is one of the strictest and most reliable in the world. It rules out any possibility of misuse of weapons."

Israel's Intel Chief knows how it happened. He said that Russia sells to Syria with the promise that Syria not transfer the weapons.
Russia must trust the Syrians more than the Israelis trust them.

Those missiles got fired into Israel. It is easy to trace because missiles do not totally destroy on impact and every missile manufacturer has very distinct characters. On several occasions in the last year high level Israelis, including the prime minister, met with Russian leaders asking them to stop supplying Syria and Iran. All to no avail.

Something is wrong.
Just because Syria promises not to transfer missiles does not mean they do not get transferred. I would not be surprised if Syria argued that Hezbollah is a branch of the Syrian Army.
We know that Hezbollah is trained and paid by Syria.



A Strong Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

"A strong and resistant Syria will bring closer the day in which Jerusalem will become Palestine's capital." That is the wish of an Arab member of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, Mohammed Barrakeh.

Can you imagine? Sounds a lot like sedition to me.

Even the Lebanese are challenging Syria and demanding a serious international investigation into former Prime Minister Hariri’s murder. And here we have an Israeli, an Arab, a member of Parliament, calling for a stronger Syria.

Yes, a stronger Syria would threaten Israel.
A stronger Syria would also threaten the entire region.
But it is highly unlikely that Syria will successfully challenge Israel in the near future.
Syria does not have the weapons or the manpower or the creativity.
It is a dream, not dissimilar to the dream of Arab unity.

Palestinians both in and out of Israel should know by now that they will get more from Israel than from any of their Arab brothers.
They should know, but they don't.



Deport Demjanjuk
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 29. 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It has taken years, too many years, but it looks as if - finally - John Demjanjuk, the Nazi death camp guard is about to be deported.

John Demjanjuk has one last appeal before he is deported from his adopted American home in Cleveland back to his true home, the Ukraine.

Israeli courts tried Demjanjuk, but could not convict him as Ivan The Terrible. His defense was that he was not a guard at Treblinka, but a guard at Sobibor, another death camp. So they let him return, with his family, to Cleveland. Demjanjuk thought he was free. But he lied on his US immigration forms and that, too, is a crime.

Today, John Demjanjuk is 85 years old. He is claiming that deportation will endanger his life. The US Court, however, is not considering chronic back pain to be a significant issue. So the deportation was upheld and now Demjanjuk has 30 days to make his last and final appeal.

International mass murderers and collaborators must not be allowed to gain sanctuary in the great United States.
John Demjanjuk does not deserve to call the United States his home.



Lebanon-Gaza-Spielberg
By Micah Halpern

Wedensday December 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's northernmost city, Kiryat Shmoneh was bombed by 6 katuysha rockets. Residents of the city spent two hours in their bomb shelters.
One of the bombs was a direct hit on a home.
In response to the terror bombings, Israel dispatched its air-force to bomb PFLP terrorist training bases.
Israel believes the PFLP was responsible for the attack.

Pay careful attention to the Israeli response.
Israel will use the same retaliatory method in dealing with Gaza.

After an attack Israel will locate and hit the nerve centers and planning centers for the attack. They will search out the people responsible for the attack and they will try to destroy the infrastructure, the planners and the attack leaders.

Contrary to the popular misunderstanding of Spielberg's Munich - this is not about vengeance.
It is not about retribution.
The real objective is to destroy the terrorist infrastructure.

Israel counter attacks to make terrorists realize that there is a hefty price to pay for attacking Israel. Israel is not like other Western countries, willing to roll over and absorb attacks against them. Israel attacks as a disincentive.



Terror Alert During the Holiday
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Indonesia is on high alert.
Terrorists are out there, lurking, attempting a strike.

Indonesia is a hotbed of terror activity and it is very difficult to stop the activity. The overwhelming majority of the 190 million citizens are Muslims and many of them harbor animosity towards Christians, Jews and all Westerners.

5 years ago, on Christmas, terrorists attacked a church in Indonesia and murdered 19 Christians.
Authorities do not want this horrific act of terror to be repeated this holiday season.

Azahari bin Husin, leader of the terrorist organization Jemaah Islamiyah, was recently killed.
During the raid that resulted in his death police found numerous maps and notes outlining attacks that were in the very last stages of planning.
This might be just the excuse that many terrorists are waiting for.
This might be the time they choose to execute their attack and strike out against the West.

Be careful. Holidays can be a wonderful time, but they are also a time when we are very vulnerable.
Be on the alert. Especially if you are traveling.



We Hand Iran Victory
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

We, the West, have handed Iran another great victory. We did it without knowing we were doing it. We did it because we do not understand the game Iran is playing.

Hussien Entezami, the spokesman for the Supreme National Security Council spoke about Iran's nuclear program and the resumption of talks between Iran and the European Union. This is what he had to say:

"The impasse over the nuclear file has been broken. From now on we sense a clear perspective for arriving at a compromise."

"the very fact that the dangerous process, which began with the resolution of September 24th, has stopped constitutes a diplomatic victory."

"But our principled position gave results and the Europeans agreed to return to the negotiating table without any preconditions. This constitutes a diplomatic success."

Iran's diplomatic success is a failure of the West.

Iran is controlling the discussion and the results.
The West is totally unaware of the issues or the stakes.
The West is duped by the lure of dialogue.

The West is so intent on realizing its agenda and attaining its own goals that no thought it given to the fact that Iran is seizing the opportunity and also attaining goals - and that is very dangerous.



US Arabic Mag Closes
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

America. The pop culture capital of the world.
America. The greatest merchandisers in the world.
America excels at selling itself - everywhere except in the Arab Middle East.

There is no reason why American culture should fail in the Arab Middle East. And yet, it does. Here is a case in point: The US State Department has just shut down "Hi" an Arabic language magazine co-published by the State Department and a private entity.

They shut it down because it was not making money.
Hello!!! It was not supposed to make money. That is why the State Department co-sponsored it.
It was supposed to spread American culture.
It was not supposed to brainwash.
But it was too brainwashy, it was too preachy, people did not buy it.
What a waste of time and money and opportunity.
"Hi" was pitched at the wrong level with the wrong material.

The US has the most magnetic culture in the world but fails to properly understand the Arab Middle East and so fails to properly package messages.

I have plenty of ideas on how to convince the masses ... but no one is listening.
If I had the funding I guarantee that in 5-10 years we could rid that part of
the world of terror.



Iran is Cloning
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has cloned sheep embryos.
The first is expected to be born on February 14, 2006.
Seven weeks from now.
That puts Iran ten years behind Dolly, the first sheep to be cloned, born in 1996.

Is this factoid the least bit significant?
It is very significant.
Here are several reasons:
Iran is run by Shiite religious leadership and they have signed off on the cloning issue and on stem cell research. The minority Sunni religious leadership has rejected all cloning experimentation.

Iran has been undertaking, and successfully accomplishing, a series of technological and scientific advancements that includes advanced weapons and space satellite development. This cloning is just the latest in the series.

Iran is positioning itself to be a regional if not an international, technology player. They want to provide and sell technology, not import it. They want to become independent and in demand.

Iran is investing large sums and putting their best and brightest on these projects. The religious leadership is balancing science and religion in a way that many analysts naively think is way beyond their capabilities.

World, watch out. Keep on the alert. This is serious stuff happening in Iran.



Iranian Spin
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian Interior Minister Mustafa Pur Mahmaddi has begun to try to spin his president's ludicrous comments about the Holocaust.

But the Iranians do not understand how ludicrous the original comments are, so the spin is just that, whirring, whirling circles, going nowhere.

Mustafa Pur Mahmaddi, said:

The president "wanted to say that if certain people have created troubles for the Jewish community they should bear the expenses, and it is not others who should pay for that."
He said:
"A historical incident has occurred. Correct or not correct. We don't want to launch research or carry out historical investigation about it."

We know what the president said .

Rephrasing does not make it better. These comments make it worse.

The point the Iranians are making is that if there were no Holocaust, there should be no Israel. And if the Holocaust took place in Europe, that is where Israel should be situated. Europe should pay the price.

It happened. And Israel was around way before Islam, not just post-Holocaust.



A New Terrorist Party
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the deadline for submitting lists for the Palestinian Parliament election.
A new party has been named and added.
I was not surprised to see that the name given the party is: "Abu Abbas."

Abu Abbas is not Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority.
Do not make the mistake of confusing the two.
Abu Abbas is dead, killed in Iraq, in the spring, just ahead of the invasion of Iraq.

Abu Abbas was a famous terrorist.
Abu Abbas was the person behind the terror attack aboard the cruise ship Achille Lauro. During that attack Leon Klinghoffer, an elderly Jewish American confined to a wheelchair was murdered and pushed off the overboard.

Why would anyone name a party after a known terrorist?
Because these Palestinians want to perpetuate his values and principles. Because these Palestinians want his legacy of terror to live on.
Because these Palestinians see the acts of Abu Abbas as heroic and brave.

Someone has to tell these Palestinians that all ideas are not equal in democracy. In Germany racists parties are outlawed. The same is true for Israel.
The same should also hold true for the Palestinians.

I have an idea. Someone should endorse a Party of Peace.



Iraq's Elections
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Elections in Iraq are a most miraculous event.
15,000,000 people will vote for their future.

225 Members of Parliament will be elected from 7,655 candidates and 996 parties. Iraqis will vote for a list not a candidate. According to the percentages won, the qualifying members on party lists will serve in Parliament.

This is an important issue.
An America democracy cannot and should not emerge in Iraq.
If you ask me what type of democracy should emerge in Iraq I would describe something closer to the Canadian model: a loose central government with strong provinces.
The central government will help out the weaker provinces and the stronger ones will soar. The central government maintains a national army while the regional provincial authorities maintain courts, education, police and healthcare.

We must take advantage of the sectarian splits.
Do not try to unify warring factions when you cannot.
To do so would be to insure and expedite failure.



The Russian Wild Card
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has responded to recent reports that it just sold $1 billion worth of missiles and other defense materials to Iran.
The response was not a denial, it was a rationalization.
Russia said that the weapons were for defensive purposes only.

"All contracts concluded in the military-technical cooperation fully comply with our international commitment, including in the sphere of nonproliferation, and are in full compliance with Russian law."

Why would any country sell weapons to Iran in this day and age?
Why would they sell this particular weapon?
There is only one reason.
Money!!!!

The question is whether the money is worth the potential cost of giving Iran the Tor M1 Missile Systems. The system can fire at two targets at the same time.

The United States and other allies should be in an uproar.
As on now, there is silence.



A Palestinian Alternative
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There is an interesting political move afoot in the Palestinian Authority.
If it worked, it would be a true step forward. But I am doubtful it will succeed.

The idea is to create a new, middle of the road, non-corrupt political party that will provide the Palestinian people with an alternative in the upcoming January elections.
The idea it so provide an alaternative choice to Hamas and Fatah.

The people behind the party include Hanan Ashrawi, Yasser Abed Rabbo, and Salem Fayed.
All are very well connected and well thought of Palestinian leaders.
Ashrawi is known for her eloquence. Abed Rabbo sponsored the Geneva Plan. Fayed is the minister of finance, fighting corruption within the PA.

An alternative would be nice. But this alternative may just backfire, strengthening the Hamas numbers by splitting the more liberal elements of Palestinian society. On the other hand, it might be what it takes to give Abbas a serious kick in the pants and force him to seriously crack down on corruption and terror and chaos.

Good luck.



US Pressures Israel on Arms Deals
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, the United States is attempting to thwart an Israeli arms deal.
Last time it was with China.
This time it is with South Korea.

When it came to China, the US had a valid point. China is the enemy, plain and simple. And Israel gets so much aid from the US that it should not be selling arms to the only significant potential challenge to the United States in the world.

But South Korea? A deal for four early warning planes?
Israel outbid Boeing for the deal. They bid $1.25 billion, Boeing bid $2.1 billion.

First, the US used the "Korean war guilt" argument saying that American soldiers were killed fighting for Korean freedom 50 years ago. That didn't work so they resorted to bureaucratic obstacles demanding that Israel obtain export licenses from the United States Department of Commerce because the planes were constructed using some US parts.
This will not be the last deal the US tries to thwart. It happened with Venezuela and it happened with India.

Bottom line? The US is eliminating competition and Israel is becoming a real competitor in the arms market.



They Can't Condemn Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Security Council has not issued a statement condemning the recent terror bombing in Netanya, Israel.

You see, the Security Council requires unanimous agreement before issuing a statement. Unanimous. Every single nation.
Algeria was not happy with the proposed statement and vetoed it.

The US was livid. Ambassador John Bolton was almost out of control. He wanted to lay blame in the lap of Syria and Islamic Jihad. Bolton wanted to know what purpose there was in defending Islamic Jihad. After all, hadn't they already proudly claimed responsibility for the attack?

But Algeria wanted the Security Council statement to mention that Israel had killed a Palestinian child earlier in the week in the Palestinian city Jenin.

This is the crux of the problem we face when universally defining terror.
There will always be countries and people who cannot unequivocally condemn terror.
There will always be those who cannot dedicate themselves to fighting terror. They are the justifiers of terror.



Solidarity With Syria? Only In Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A high profile Palestinian Arab Israeli group was recently formed.
In simpler terms, the group is composed of Arab citizens of Israel.
And what is the raison d'etre of this group?
To give support to Syria in the "ongoing American aggression ..." in "a bid to exercise the new imperialistic plan to increase the economic and military influence over all the Arab territories."

These Israeli Arabs, as they were once called, want to show their solidarity for Syria.
They believe that Syria is being unfairly attacked by the US.
They want "to break the horrifying barrier of silence and show solidarity with Syria and its principles."

Nothing shocks me when I analyze this part of the world, but seldom do I let out such an audible laugh.
What we have here is a group of Arabs who are free to express themselves because they live in Israel- and they are praising Syria and pledging solidarity with its principles.
What principles? Certainly not respect, freedom, independence, democracy, responsibility, accountability, equality, safety, security or any of the other principles that actually allowed these prominent Israeli Arabs their right to create this "national committee."

People. They can be so naive.



Bloody Tuesday
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was a very bloody day in Iraq.

43 people killed and 70 wounded in a double suicide bombing at the Police Academy in Baghdad.

What lessons can be learned from these deaths?
We learn that despite the terrible odds, some Iraqis are still hopeful for the future.
Terrorists continue to target new Iraqi police recruits and yet the line of recruits never seems to stop. Iraqis are willing to take risks for a good job and will sacrifice to save their country.

We learn that in Iraq, trust is often misplaced and taken advantage of.
The two terrorists were students at the Police Academy. Just because someone wears a uniform, even if they look like they belong, they may still be a terrorist.

Security agencies, all security agencies, must wake up to the realization that even, especially, insiders have the ability to attack. Everyone must be subject to a the same "search" even if they are "local."

We must always be alert. We must always be on the alert.



Terror Continues in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 5, 2005 #2

I've Been Thinking:

Why do Palestinians continue perpetrating acts of terror?
Why - especially in light of Israel's redeployment from Gaza?

I'll tell you why.
Palestinian terror is perpetrated for various reasons and rationales.

Many terrorists will never accept any compromise and that includes the very existence of Israel.
Those terrorists consider the city of Netanya the perfect target because it is so close to the West Bank.
Those terrorists speak of liberating Netanya from Israel in the same way they speak about liberating the West Bank.
The terror is seen as tit for tat - Israel attacks terrorist leaders so terrorists hit back at Israel.

Palestinian leadership has refused to crackdown on terrorist cells and to disarm non-police bodies.
By not cracking down the leadership demonstrates to the people and the world that they do not share the disdain that the US and Israel have for terror.

By not acting against terror the Palestinian Authority embraces the end result, even if not the means, of terror.
Terror against Israel has become synonymous with the Palestinian political assertion of independence and has become a vehicle of spite.



New Syrian Scud-D
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has added a new, vastly improved, Scud Missile to their arsenal.
It is called the Scud-D.

Scud Missiles were used by Nazi Germany and were called V-1 and V-2.
Saddam Hussein chose the Scud Missile as his attack weapon on Israel and Saudi Arabia during the first Gulf War.
Now Syria is using the Scud-D.

How do I know?
The information was just unclassified.
A few months ago a Syrian Scud-D went off course and landed in Turkey. Syria apologized hoping that Turkey would keep the incident quiet. They kept it quiet from the press, but not from intelligence gatherers.

The Scud-D is a frighteningly powerful missile.
The range of the new missile is 500 miles, the range of the Scud-B is 200 miles.
The warhead on this Scud "separates" from the body making it much more difficult to shoot down, much more accurate, much smaller and much faster.
Upon separation it uses smalls fins, making it harder to retaliate and hit.
The course of the Scud can be changed and corrected on the way to its target.

The technology of war is vastly and rapidly improving in the Arab world.
The Syrian Scud-D Missile coupled with new Iranian satellite technology should seriously worry America and her allies.

This type of technology is there primarily to present more dangers to the West.

We must shut them down.



Iran Has A Satellite
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Last month Iran launched a satellite.
I known, it sounds unbelievable.
The satellite is called Sina-1.

It is Russian made by a company named Polyot, weighs about 400 lbs and orbits the earth 14 times a day.

In two months Iran is scheduled to launch its own 100% Iranian made Satellite.

The official, stated purpose of the Iranian satellite is to track weather and agriculture. The fear is that it will be used to spy on Israel.

Here is what the Iranian deputy minister of telecom had to say:
"Sina-1 is a research satellite. It's not possible to use it for military purposes." "Technically speaking, yes it can monitor Israel. But we don't need to, you can buy satellite photos of Israeli streets from the market."

Of course it is possible to spy on Israel. Of course it is possible to buy photos of Israeli streets. But who is he kidding? Streets are not what Iran would look for. Troops, weapons, movements of individuals and of police, that's what you want.

Real time info would really aid terrorists and anyone else who might want to attack Israel.

The lesson: Always assume you are being watched.



EU & Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Saturday December 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I read the recent European Union report on Jerusalem with great interest and anticipation.

Call me naive or perhaps simply overly curious.
I was expecting a serious report with serious suggestions and a plausible resolution.

Was I mistaken.

On the positive side, at least the report articulated its prejudice.
It did not mince words and stated that, as far as they are concerned, the status of Jerusalem was still open for negotiation.

In reality the report just echoes the principle that any community built by Israel post '67 in Jerusalem is a settlement - including neighborhoods like Ramat Eshkol, East Talpiot and French Hill, places very central in Jerusalem.

So yes, certain issues may be open for discussion.

But these communities will not be a part of those negotiations.



Israel On Iran
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Ariel Sharon has articulated Israel's policy on Iran and their nuclear capability.

Look carefully at what Sharon said:
"I said, Israel should not lead but it is certainly in close contacts with the countries that run this battle."
"Israel is not spearheading the international struggle against Iran's nuclear arming."
"Before anyone decides on a military step, every effort should be made to pressure Iran."

Now, read between the lines:
Israel and the United States are working very closely to find out what is actually happening.
There are military options and plans.
Israel would prefer if the US and European allies step in with more pressure on Iran, or, if that does not work, with a military strike.

Finally, if the threat is too great and if the US is not acting - Israel will strike.



Now Shell Should Invest In Israel
By Micah Halpern

December 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Shell Energy has just issued a license granting Israel the right to import certain Shell products.
This is a first step in bringing Shell gas and gas stations back into Israel.

In 1927 Shell began in the region as Shell Palestine.
They left Israel in 1958.
They sold to Isaac Wolfson who renamed all Shell in Israel calling it "Paz."
They left because they succumbed to the Arab boycott.
Now, Shell sees a chance to make a profit and open another untapped market.

I am not certain Israel should be grateful.
I would advise Israel to hold out, to ask for partnerships, to demand oil exploration, to promise profit reinvestment in culture and education.
I would have Shell Energy demonstrate real and significant signs of good will.

Coke did not collapse because they refused to accept the boycott.
New companies ... Intel, Motorola, Amdocs ... refused to even entertain the idea of boycotting Israel. They established industries in Israel and many were blessed.

Yes, I am glad the boycott is over.
But I don't think we should reward corporations for 50 years of cowardice.
Let Shell share some of their wealth with Israel.
Show the world that things have changed since 1958.



US Now Trusts Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Secretary of State Condi Rice confirmed that the United States supports a Russian proposal that would drastically change US policy toward Iranian nuclear development.

That shocks me.

This is the proposal: Iran continues to develop an atomic energy program, but from now on, the last stage of uranium enrichment take place in Russia.
The idea behind it all is that now the allies will know the extent of Iran's nuclear arsenal.
And there lies the mistake.

Who says that because Iran is doing one thing by the book they will not still secretly go ahead with their original plans away from the watchful and naive eyes of the Americans and Russians?
It would not be the first time the Iranians agreed to something and then went ahead and did whatever they pleased.
Why start trusting them now?

It is hard enough to keep Iran in check.
Do not provide them with the reward from the outset.



Flying High
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I fly quite often. Some people are nervous flyers. Not me. I am usually a relaxed flyer. Until now.

As everyone knows El Al is supposed to be the safest airline.
Sometimes I fly El Al, sometimes I fly the competition. Actually I like the fact that there is competition and they are also extremely secure.
I might be flying the competition more often.

Something happened at El Al and I think people should know about.
It is something that impacts on security.
It is about drugs.

Several El Al security agents are being investigated, others are resigning - for using drugs, even while on duty. The drugs in question are marijuana and hallucinogenic mushrooms. The Shin Bet was brought in to investigate. It all came to light when an informant told the Shin Bet.

Drugs are bad.
Worse is that the security team supervisors were clueless and caught off guard. No good security team can operate when supervisors are so distant that they do not and cannot see the dysfunction of their agents.

It makes me nervous, it really frightens me.



Presto We're Safer
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It's called "the Hidden Magician" and it just might transform our lives and lessen our security worries.
The Hidden Magician is the new lie detector-type invention developed by the Israeli company Nemesysco. It has the potential to transform security at airports and other high-risk targets around the world. It is a very simple process.

Just say your name.
That is all.
The Hidden Magician detects fear.
The device takes into account the normal pressure people feel when they travel.

It has already been installed in Russian airports, and they are considering installing it at every port of entry. It has also been installed at British banks and insurance companies.

The Hidden Magician is not fool proof but it may take us one step closer to a safer world.
Presto.



What A Mistake!
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The assassin responsible for the murder of an Israeli Cabinet minister is declaring his candidacy for the Palestinian Parliament.
Ahmed Saadat, the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine(PFLP) said he as a "gimmick."

Saadat is currently in prison in Jericho. Originally, a Palestinian court convicted him and two others for the 2001 assassination of Israeli minister Rehavam Zeevi in a Jerusalem hotel. A higher court has since over-ruled the conviction but Saadat and his associates remain in the Jericho jail for fear that Israel will target them...

So, yes, there is the gimmick. Saadat thinks that if he gets elected Israel will not track him down.

This is a serous miscalculation.



EU Med Summit- Against Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday in Barcelona the Euro Mediterranean Summit will take place.
The 25 members of the European Union together with neighboring Mediterranean countries will participate in a conference.

The EU would like the Mediterranean participants to condemn terror.
But it is not that simple, the EU is facing the same problem the UN faces when confronting a condemnation of terror.
Arab and Muslim states do not agree with the generally accepted definition of terror, they differ on the questions of who and what constitute a valid target.

Unfortunately, the EU has begun to understand the dangers of terror.
Even the Arab world, Jordan being the prime example, understands.
But can they bring themselves to condemn all acts against innocent civilians? What about attacks especially aimed at or including Jews and Israelis?

They cannot accept that as terror.
That is where the entire model collapses. Terrorists kill Jordanians at a wedding and that's bad, they kill Londoners going to work in the Underground and that's bad. But killing Israeli Jews in a market or a disco or pizzeria - that is different.

European Union, good luck - but don't hold your collective breath.



Michael Jackson
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 23, 2005 #2

I've Been Thinking:

ABC just quoted Michael Jackson as saying: "Jews are blood -sucking leeches."

Should the world be upset?
Of course they should.
They should be upset when anyone with an audience gratuitously disparages anyone else.

Jackson is a huge media personality and he has tremendously influence and consequently power over young people across the world.
BUT he cannot be taken seriously.
Just because he is rich and famous and very musically talented does not make him wise or insightful. He has proven that already.

Address his comments, don't ignore them.
BUT address in order to make a point about underserved podiums and role models, not for truth, validity or content.
The man has chosen to make his new home in Bahrain.
That says it all.



Sharon: People Love to Hate Him
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Ariel "Arik" Sharon.
You love him, you hate him or you love to hate him.
As a character, he evokes strong emotions in others. Rather than it being a character flaw, it is a trait that will seal his victory in the coming Israeli election.

The far right in Israel feels betrayed by Sharon.
The far right is a small but very vocal minority and they will broadcast their resentment across Israel.

About 10 days before he declared his split from Likud there graffiti was scrawled on the Ladies Room wall in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.
It read: "Rabin is waiting for Arik." "We liquidated Rabin, We'll liquidate Sharon." "The criminals responsible for the expulsion should be brought to justice."
Two girls, aged 12 and 14 were arrested. Irony of ironies, they had come to attend a session of the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee of the Knesset.

These 2 girls represent an extreme dimension of Israel. Average Israelis do not view graffiti and blocked roads as self-expression. They view it as extremist. They equate extremism with the ugliest of Israeli society, with the likes of Yigal Amir, the man who murdered Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin ten years ago.
As a result, the masses embrace Sharon even more.

Left or right, extremists cannot control themselves.
Left or right, they must spew their hatred.



Sharon's New Party
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A sitting prime minister is abandoning his political party and creating another.

Actually, the reason Ariel Sharon is abandoning Likud, the party he named and helped create, is because he feels that a core group of colleagues in the party hierarchy have abandoned him and dissed him. He is right.
Sharon has been tethered and hamstrung by party members who do not and could not accept his Vision of the Future.
The point was brought home over the Gaza Withdrawal -- swords were drawn and resentment was so thick that you needed them to cut the air.

Sharon knows that the nation is with him.
He knows that without party rebels he can fulfill his agenda.
Friday's polls have Sharon gaining 28-30 Knesset seats in his own, new, party.
They have Likud getting many fewer seats.

My analysis gives Sharon an easy win with the entire middle of the country - rightwing and leftwing - giving him 35 of the 120 in Knesset seats.
He will have a freer hand and his dissenters will be further marginalized, fighting for the 10% of voters who embrace the right.

This is ground breaking. I can't wait to learn the name he gives his new party.



What Was That Video?
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the tape of the female suicide bomber from Jordan?
It has gotten me thinking.

We saw the terrorist. We heard the voice of a woman speaking in Arabic. And then there was a "voice over," another female voice translating from the Arabic.

I'm thinking that it is not clear to me that the woman we saw in the video i.e. the female terrorist now captured by the Jordanians, was really speaking.
It was just audio, two female voices, on a video tape.

I'm thinking that the presentation was so very crisp and well scripted.
Remember, this was a propaganda tool released to convince the Muslim world of the horrific, cold blooded nature of the murderers.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that the tape was too cool, too scripted, too neat, too artificial, too professional.
I am certain the female image we saw was the terrorist and that the translation was read, not simultaneous.
So the female voice we heard speaking in Arabic - was that really the terrorist?

The purpose of the video was obvious. It was very well staged. It would be much easier to have an actress read the script.
The terrorist did not falter over a single phrase or expression.
What do you think?



Bullets To Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority is facing a shortage - of bullets.
It seems that Palestinian police are complaining that they are being out gunned by Hamas - who have no shortage of ammunition of any kind.
But the crisis has been solved.

Half a million bullets are on their way to shore up the Palestinian arsenal.
Courtesy of the Egyptians.

The bullets will probably arrive today. The Egyptians already have a presence in Gaza so it will be easy to supervise the transaction from there. According to the agreement, the Egyptians will dispense the ammunition, making certain that it goes to the Palestinian police and the police only. They will also supervise the storage of the bullets.

What does Israel have to say about all this? They have given their OK, stipulating that the bullets go to PA police only.
The United States actually, originally, wanted Israel to supply the PA bullets, but that was taking it a bit too far.
Crisis averted, we hope.



Jordan's War On Terror
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

At this very moment, by example, the Jordanians are leading the War Against Terror.
The Jordanian response to the horror that took innocent lives is singular and unique in the Arab/Muslim world.

The government immediately went about capturing any remaining terrorists.
The female terrorist they caught was put on public media display.
She was presented to the rest of the Muslim world as cold and murderous, a person who can look straight into the eyes of children, women, men, party revelers and push a button that would kill them all.

The response has been a public Jordanian outcry against the acts.
Jordanians have taken to the streets shouting that murdering innocents is wrong.

Of course, there are still voices that say that it was Israel that perpetrated the attack, but by and large the Jordanians are rejecting the untruths and the horrors.

This is the only way to win the War Against Terror.
Local people have to step forward and say NO.
When local governments, like the Jordanians, help the people - that's great.
When they don't, we in the West must empower local citizens, we must show the way and give them the strength to step forward and shout out against terror.



Good Work Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Monday November 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

In the end the evidence proves that there really was a husband-wife terror team.

First intelligence was that two terrorists hit the Radisson SAS Hotel in Amman, a man and woman, a couple. But forensics could find no evidence of a female bomber.
Turns out that Sajida Mubarak Atrous al Rishawi, 35, accompanied her husband on the mission with every intention of turning herself into a suicide bomber - but her explosives did not detonate.
They walked into the wedding hall together, he went to one side, she went to the other and when her device did not explode, she escaped in the chaos.

The intelligence was correct. There was a woman and Jordanian authorities went looking for her. Sajida and her explosive belts were found in a safe house in Amman.
She confessed. She described how her husband had instructed her and given her the second vest filled with ball bearings to increase the damage.

Good intel is irreplaceable.
Jordanian security received the information on a tip. Their source was insistent and the authorities paid heed. And now they have a live suicide bomber in custody. That kind of "asset" is irreplaceable, it will lead to information about this operation and who knows how many more.

Good work.



Iran & The French Riots
By Micah Halpern

Sunday November 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian press is expressing views on the Muslim riots in France.

The popular daily Jomhouri Islami made it very clear in an editorial:
"every car that is set on fire and every shop that is damaged in the uprisings in Paris and other cities is a reflection of the injustice that the residents of the Elysees Palace have inflicted on the impoverished and oppressed people of France."

Hamid-Reza Asefi, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, called the police violent and said "we hope that the French government would respect the rights of people there and pay attention to their demands in a peaceful way, so that they would not continue to witness the violation of citizens' rights in that country."

The Iranians truly have a warped sense of reality.
It is the Muslim youths who are burning and destroying and threatening the security and safety of the French people.
Who is Iran to talk about violating rights?
Iran is one of the greatest abusers of human rights in the world today.



Married Terrorists Up Stakes
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It was a first.
One of the bombs that exploded in Amman was carried by a couple.
If true, that piece of information throws a huge wrench into the process of analysis and detection of potential terrorists.

There are certain rules, certain givens, a standard M.O. for suicide bombers.

While we always knew that there was no standard profile to look for, there were always cues, behaviors, attitudes that gave people away, what gamblers would call "tells." A couple going about their romantic way does not usually arouse the suspicion of security forces. They look for unusual interaction, not natural attraction. A married couple about to murder and commit suicide is almost impossible to detect.

From the terrorist point of view, it is much more difficult to recruit a couple than a single individual.
If this suicide couple truly was a married couple, it would be a major coup for the terror network.
The stakes have been upped - again.



Why Protect Hotels in NYC?
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Amman was bombed by terrorists.
And New York hotels received beefed up security and police presence.

Why it was done is obvious.
But is beefing up security at New York hotels a deterrent to terror?
Not from the terror and security point of view.
But certainly from the psychological point of view of potential victims.

In New York, hotels are no more a target than sports stadiums or shopping malls or popular tourist sites or government offices or high profile international corporate headquarters. Actually hotels are at the bottom of the list.
But hotels represent tourism and business travel and those industries need to feel secure - no matter what the actual threat level is.
Protecting hotels makes people feel safer. Especially because the terrorists in Amman targeted American hotel chains.

And the reason the terrorists selected hotels in Jordan is exactly why they will not hit hotels in the United States.
In Jordan there are not that many possible Western targets to choose from.

There are far more and better choices for terrorist targets in NYC and in the USA.



Terror In Jordan
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 9, 2005
#2

I've Been Thinking:

The 3 simultaneous explosions in Amman the capital city of Jordan are meant to frighten the Hashemite Kingdom into submission.

Jordan was chosen as an attack target because:
Jordan links to the West and has a strong relationship with the US
Jordan is on the record for having rejected the notion of worldwide terror
Jordan has specifically rejected/pushed away Iraq for sponsoring terror
Jordan has vocally attempted to quell Hamas and Islamic Jihad
Jordan is attempting to bring the PA and Israel back to the negotiation table
Jordan may be a country composed of Muslims, but is not an Islamic state

These acts of terror are an attempt to influence the Jordanian masses to join the cause of terror, to become more Iraq-like.

Ultimately, the terrorists will fail in their effort to sway Jordan.
Jordan is no democracy.
The strong arm of Jordanian authorities will not allow for this to continue.



Sharing Intel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a lot of talk in the United States about sharing intelligence information.
The question is: Should national agencies share information with local and state law enforcement?

The answer is: Yes and No.
Yes, if local and state agencies are trained to properly read and interpret the information.
No, if the information comes in an intel vacuum.
The problem is not the information, the problem is the ability to understand and apply the information.
Intel is not just the gathering of intelligence and information.
Intel is the art of connecting the dots, reading between the lines, ferreting out the truth in the vast array of information that is gathered, transmitted, passed along.
The hard part is interpreting information and then predicting the real risks.

Every lead does not turn into an attack.



Alert on The Northern Border
By Micah Halpern

Saturday November 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's northern border with Lebanon is on alert.
There is a serious threat that Hizbullah will launch a raid and/or loft missiles into northern Israel from posts in Southern Lebanon.

Why has Hizbullah chosen right now to saber rattle?
What is happening now causing Hizbullah to ratchet up tensions?

It is a simple case of keeping up with the Jones's.
Hamas is escalating tensions with Israel.
Islamic Jihad is escalating tensions with Israel.
How would it look if the grand poobah of terror in the region stood silent?

They say that imitation is the best form of flattery.
In this case, it makes for a very worrisome situation.



Rabin Forgotten?
By Micah Halpern

Friday November 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Ten years ago today Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated, killed by another Israeli, a religious, Zionist, extremist.
Ten years ago, no one thought that a citizen of Israel would ever kill an Israeli prime minister.
Everyone thought that threats came only from the outside.

Today, we know better.
A recent poll shows that over 80% of Israelis believe that another political murder will happen again. And that it will happen soon.
The Rabin assassination burst the bubble. Israelis are not above or beyond bloody internal conflict.

Ten years ago, none of the early warning signs were caught.
I would hope that, today, those early markers will be seen.
I would hope that the lesson taught ten years ago has been learned.



Iran Recalls Diplomats
By Micah Halpern

Thursday November 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is on the offensive.
The news agency INRA quoted the Iranian foreign minister in a speech to Parliament saying that 40 pro-Western, liberal, diplomats will be replaced.

Included in that group is one of the most effective ambassadors Iran has, Mohammad Hussein Adeli, the Iranian Ambassador to London.

What is Iran doing? They are keeping everyone in line.
Iran is saying to their own diplomats that if you stepped out of line, if you dared to venture out to the Western world and to offer the West the hope that Iran is willing to make concessions and/or compromises, you did that on your own. You were not speaking for Iran and you are now coming home to be taught a lesson.

Diplomats do not run Iran.
Politicians do not run Iran.
Mullahs run Iran.
Never forget that.



Australia Is Now A Terror Target
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday November 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Australian is now on the list of official terrorist targets.
Prime Minister John Howard announced that there is credible and significant intelligence that Australia is a terrorist target.
He said that he did not want to overstate the threat but neither did he want to underemphasize the threat.

Why would terrorists target Australia?
Because Australians are a predominately Western, democratic culture.
Because Australia is a state that welcomes immigrants.
Because Australia is easily accessible for terrorists.
Because Australia is the closest many terrorists can get to attacking any Western or American target.
Because terrorists easily fit into the culturally rich Australian community.

Given their place in the world, their role as a Western country, their relationship with the US, it is clear to me that Australia would be a constant terror target.

So far Aussies have been lucky. So far terrorists have only targeted Australians outside Australia. So far. But it is just a matter of time.



Palestinian Engineers
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday November 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Three Palestinian engineers were recently captured by Israel.
Palestinian engineers do not drive trains or build bridges.
Palestinian engineers build rockets and bombs.
Palestinian engineers are in high demand.
These Palestinian engineers were dispatched to Israel by Hamas and Hezbullah.
They were caught and they will be tried.

The engineers were caught and captured near Mitzpe Ramon in the Negev, in southern Israel. They were on their way from Gaza to Jenin in the West Bank. The three had traveled from Egypt to Sinai and then into Israel. They had bribed Egyptian border police to get across.

Their objective was to teach local West Bank Palestinians the skills needed to procure, build and assemble Kassam missiles and then to teach them how to properly launch the missiles.
They were experts on the road, similar to traveling computer experts sent out by the home office to clients, making certain that systems work.
The only difference is that here, Hezbullah in Lebanon is exporting skilled workers to Gaza and then Gaza is exporting them to the West Bank.

It is clearly evident that terrorist organizations have no interest in peace.
They are just taking advantage of the lull.



Will Gaza Border Be Safe?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Ultimately, the Israeli pull out from Gaza will result in improved security for all of Israel, with the most noticeable improvement in Southern Israel.

How will that come about?
Behavior Modification
Deterrence
Incentives

Palestinians need to be re-taught how to behave with Israelis and when their behavior improves, i.e. when terror attacks are vastly diminished, they need to be rewarded. Conversely, if attacks pick up, they need to be harshly reprimanded.

The comparison can be made with Israel's neighbors to the north, Lebanon and Syria. Today, those borders are relatively quiet, but only after terrorist attacks were hit back hard, over and over until, eventually, they stopped.
Lebanon is still full of weapons and Southern Lebanon is still controlled by Hibuzllah, and yet the border with Israel is relatively quiet.

It won't happen right away, but that is the situation that hard work, perseverance and persistence will create for Israel's Southern border with the Palestinians.



Mubarak- Assad Meeting
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt, made a surprise and quick trip to Damascus to meet with Assad of Syria.
In the Arab world Egypt is one of the diplomatic big boys.
Egypt handles damage control for the rest of the Arab world.

The trip comes one week after the release of the United Nations report that places responsibility for the assassination of Rafik Hariri squarely at the feet of senior Syrian leaders.
Egypt came to explain to Syria that the findings of this report are serious and that the world is taking the investigation very seriously.
Egypt is saying: Do something to accept responsibility. Find a sacrificial lamb, preferably a Lebanese sacrificial lamb. Lay low and keep a low profile.

Odds are that Syria will not be swayed by Mubarak's assessment.
Assad is neither a diplomat nor a commanding leader.
His only real objective is survival.
Syria's actions following the UN report will put Assad's survival instincts to the test.



Hamas Is Not Islamic Jihad
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The White House needs to get its facts straight.

Speaking in the aftermath of yesterday's terror attack in Israel, an attack that left five people dead and dozens wounded, White House Spokesperson Scott McClellan condemned Hamas.
But before McClellan issued his statement, Islamic Jihad called a press conference and they claimed responsibility.
That claim was confirmed by Israeli security.

McClellan explained that a group that practices terror, Hamas, cannot participate in the political process.
Excuse me, sir, while there is little doubt that Hamas would laud the murderous attack Hamas IS NOT Islamic Jihad.
How could the White House have made such a mistake?
Do they not understand the difference?
Do they think all Muslim terror groups are one and the same?
Was there no policy or background person present at the preparation of McClellan's remarks?

This is the United States. This is elementary.
The United States is supposed to know and understand these things.
The United States is supposed to be working towards a resolution.

For those of us trying to make a difference this was a serious disappointment, more than a faux pas, it is a major blight on the credibility of the United States.



Abbas Briefing
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

As soon as Muhamad Abbas returned to Gaza from his trip to Washington, he left again. This time he went to Cairo and then to Amman. The Palestinian leader felt it imperative to report to Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah on his meeting.

Why? Why the rush? Why the debriefing?

There are several important reasons why.

Egypt and Jordan have established normalized relations with Israel.
Egypt and Jordan both border Israel.
Egypt and Jordan have very good relations with the United States.
Egypt and Jordan are the leaders of the more liberal Arab flank.
Egypt and Jordan wield tremendous influence inside the Palestinian population.

Mubarak and Abdullah are the best advisers Abbas has on issues concerning terror control and contacts with the United States.

It was important enough for Abbas to personally visit, not call, not send an emissary. After nearly a week away from home in Washington, Abbas took two more days to be with colleagues and mentors.

The visits point out clearly the inner workings in this part of the Arab Middle East.



Symbols are Important
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 25, 2005

I'e Been Thinking:

Some societies are just not ready for change.

The Palestinian people may have publicly voted in a democratic election, they may be mouthing conciliatory phrases in Washington, but when nobody is watching, their actions belie their words.

Last week the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the PFLP, dedicated a monument in tribute to four cold blooded terrorist murderers.

At a site in the Beit Hanoun area of Gaza tribute was paid to the men who assassinated Rehavam Zeevi, affectionately known as Ghandi. The minister of tourism was gunned down at the Jerusalem Hyatt Hotel in October 2002.

Where are the four honorees now? They are being feted in a Palestinian prison in Jericho. They have their own cell phones and order take out food. They even entertain. In fact, included on their guest list are Saeb Erekat and Prime Minister Ahmed Qaeira.

How can any society allow such a monument?
When does freedom of speech exceed its boundaries?
Murder must be renounced, not lauded.
Leaders must educate and lead by example.
How dare the Palestinian leadership remain silent in the face of such rabid hatred.



Secret Negotiations With the PA
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A telling tidbit from the Bush/Abbas meeting:
The Palestinian leader suggested that secret backdoor negotiations be arranged between Palestinians and Israelis.
Abbas thinks that with back door negotiations in place "we can reach a state within years, or even a single year."

Abbas has not yet learned to think like the leader of a democratic country.
This is a serious problem.
Secret negotiation channels are the antithesis of democracy.
Democracies are countries that embrace public transparency and public debate, open discussion and open negotiations.
Democratic leaders must educate their society to the values of democracy.

Abbas cannot and should not hide behind closed doors. He must throw open the doors of debate and persuasively, not secretly, point his people towards a better future. That is just what Sharon did regarding the Gaza pullout.

If Abbas wants a democratic state he must negotiate in democratic style.



Hamas & Abbas Were Winners
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Right now, for reasons that I will never fathom, Hamas is very unhappy.

How? Why? They just got it all.

PA leader Abbas came out of his meeting in Washington unscathed. So did Hamas. No proverbial slap on the wrist. No arm twisting. No condemnation. And yet, Hamas is condemning the Abbas-Bush meeting. Hamas is accusing President Bush of trying to drive a wedge between Palestinians.

Hamas should be elated. They have carte blanche to run for Parliament.

George Bush has taken Abbas off the hook. Now, all Abbas has to do is "pretend" to control Hamas, wink, wink. It is no secret that Hamas can do whatever they want. This Palestinian leader is not about to enter into a prolonged, extended campaign to eliminate terror.

Who were the winners in DC this week? Abbas and Hamas.

Abbas thought he was a goner, pressured into bringing about a civil war and rooting out Hamas. Instead his ineffective policy received a big OK.

Who were the losers? Israel and the United States.

Israel hoped that the US would follow through with a policy to root out terror.

The United States blew a big opportunity. They came out in support of a regime that will not confront terror creating a de facto dramatic turnabout in US policy.

This is more than a shame. This is a sham.



PA - US- ISRAEL: GOOD COP/BAD COP
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Every game has rules.
Only spoiled children change the rules of the game in the middle of play.
Spoiled children and players at United States foreign policy.

United States Middle East policy is often a game of Good Cop/Bad Cop.
With the Palestinians, Condi Rice is the good cop.
With the Israelis, Condi is the bad cop.
Confusing, but hey, that's the game of foreign MidEast policy.

That's why the US secretary of state chastises Israel for "settlement building" in the community of Maaleh Adumim, outside of Jerusalem. Then the US president comes in and demands that PA President Abbas crack down on terror and forbid Hamas from running in the parliamentary elections scheduled for January 25.

The hardest part of this game is figuring out who is who, what is what and if who or what are serious or if it all just a game ploy.

Does the Bush Administration really believe that the building in Maaleh Adumim is a problem? Not as much as they would have the Palestinians believe.
Do they actually think that terror groups must be dismantled? Yes!!!
Do they believe that Hamas should not be allowed to run for elections? Yes!!!!

Where does that leave us?
Waiting to see if anyone - Palestinian, Israeli or US understands rules of the game.



Watch Israel & the Bird Flu
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Kudos to Israel.

Israel is being proactive in their fight - not against terror this time, but against the virulent Avian Flu.

Israel has just purchased 8 million Avian Flu vaccines.

The Avian Flu has already made its way to Turkey and Israel is concerned about the risk of a pan epidemic caused by birds.

A pan epidemic is far more dangerous than terror.

Billions are being spent on security, but not at the cost of public health.

Israel is acting responsibly, trying to protect Israelis on all fronts.

In addition to the H-5 and H-7 Avian Vaccine, Israel is stocked with the general flu shot and the Health Ministry has recommended that everyone get their flu shots in order to lessen the risk of the Avian Flu if it does reach Israel.

Meanwhile, in the United States health authorities are stymied by the threat of Avian Flu.

Whatever they do, it will be too late.

The US should take their lead from Israel - prepare for the worst.



Powerless PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The violence in Gaza is just getting worse and worse.

The Palestinian Authority is powerless, completely unable to control the situation.

The resemblance between Gaza and Iraq strengthens with each passing day.

There have been shootings and kidnappings. Westerners, journalists, academics - they are all at risk.

What is very disturbing is that the majority of the violence is NOT coming from Hamas. According to a report by the Palestinian Authority itself, most Gaza violence is perpetrated by the al Aksa Brigades. The study reports that in August, 20 incidents were perpetrated by the al Aksa Brigades, 18 by Hamas.

Here's the hard to believe part: the demands put forth by the al Aksa Brigades are most often for jobs in the PA security forces or for promotions. How silly. The Brigades are part of Fatah and Fatah is the ruling party in the PA.

How could anyone think that the people who resort to violence in order to get their way could then be trusted to keep the peace?

Kidnapping a Western journalist and beating up a university president are not good job recommendations.



A Strong Abbas?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has determined that the only hope of any future deal for and with the Palestinians hinges on the stability of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

So, over the past few weeks, the United States has been sending messages to Israel stressing the importance of strengthening Abbas -in the eyes of his people and in world perception.

Israel has been getting the messages.
Israel has also been getting another message.
The Palestinians are telling Israel, plainly and bluntly, to Butt Out. The Palestinians maintain that Israel's interventions only strengthen Hamas. The Palestinians maintain that by attacking Hamas, Israel is turning Hamas into a stronger force.

Here is the dilemma: Abbas has neither taken nor assumed any position of strength. Abbas waits things out, he is a fence sitter, he is not fast acting and daring. It makes no difference what the United States wants, Abbas will only become strong if he acts. And Israel wants Abbas to act against Hamas.

It is true that Israel can weaken Abbas.
But the only person who can strengthen Abbas, is Abbas.



Vote in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The vote on the referendum for the Iraqi Constitution is important, very important.
Unfortunately, something else very important often gets lost in the excitement and terror surrounding the vote.
Perspective.
We should never lose perspective.

Democracy is less about voting, it is much more about responsibility.
It is about accountability.
It is about security.
It is about stability.
It is about safety.
It is about equal protection.
It is about equal opportunity.
It is about justice.

Democracy is about leaders conforming to the will of the majority or educating the masses as to the proper path.

Voting is an important aspect of democracy but just one of many.
We should never lose sight of what is really important.



Does The US Trust Israel?
By Micah Halpern

Friday October 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States and Israel have resumed strategic military cooperation.

The US suspended the relationship three years ago when Israel finalized arms deals with China, one of America's and the West's archenemies.

But all is not as it once was.

Israel is being penalized for what the United States considers an indiscretion. Israel has been locked out of the planning and development stages off the F-35. The F-35 will replace the F-16, Israel's most important attack plane.

Britain, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Turkey, Holland, Italy, Australia and Singapore are all involved with the F-35. Unlike Israel, these countries can bid on and develop various components of the plane. Singapore is part of the group not by merit but through a military aid package.

Tensions, even among friends, can be dramatic and can cause irreparable rifts.

The United States no longer trusts Israel with their top secret plans.

The United States will always have the fear that Israel will sell them to the highest bidders.



Pakistan & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Pakistan has agreed to accept aid from Israel and from American Jewish groups. The aid will assist victims of the horrific earthquake that struck and ravaged the people of Pakistan.

This is an enormous step forward.

Pakistan is the second most populated Muslim country in the world.

We are witnessing the second public gesture between Israel and Pakistan.

The first was at a United Nations General Assembly event when President Musharaf, took the step of introducing his wife to Israeli Prime Minister Sharon.

The significance is clear.

Diplomatic relationships evolve as a result of mutual need and interests.

Israel has much to offer Pakistan, not just in the aftermath of the quake, but more importantly, in the realm of high tech and telecommunications.

I see a bright future here.



Bahrain Buckles and Boycotts Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain has capitulated to pressure.

Last month Bahrain rescinded their boycott against Israel. The office dedicated to making certain that no Israeli "contraband" entered Bahrain was closed down. Who closed it? The foreign minister of Bahrain.
Then yesterday the Bahraini Parliament passed a new law and the office was reopened.
But in order to get the office working again the new law must be approved by the Upper House of Parliament and signed by the King.

What's going on? Here is the real scoop. The reason the office was closed was because Bahrain wants a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States. There is no way the US will accept an FTA with a country that boycotts Israel.

Parliament was fuming, but that's irrelevant because Bahrain is a true monarchy.
The vote in Parliament is also irrelevant in determining policy.
Only the King determines policy.
Right now in order to have an FTA and to trade with the US, boycotts have to go.



Absurd Terror Plan in NYC
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Thankfully, there has been no subway terror attack in New York City. Even though the threat put everyone on edge, most New Yorkers continued with their routine. Subways were full.

Hitting the subways seems so easy and baby carriages and backpack bombs seem so obvious. Here's the thing: The warning was "on or around October 9." October 9 is a Sunday. Sunday, the City is virtually empty. What kind of terrorist would target NYC on a Sunday in October?

The chances of getting caught are much higher.
There's rarely a crowd so blending in is difficult.
The chances of having a massive attack are minimal.

The NYC Subway Terror plan was stupidly planned. It was absurd. It no longer surprises me.



Terror Alert in NYC
By Micah Halpern

October 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

New York City has been on Code Orange, high alert, since 9-11 - not just since yesterday when the mayor released information about a threat to the subway system.
There are always threats in New York, this threat was determined to be both credible and specific, actually, the most specific threat to NYC since 9-11.

Other agencies, the FBI, the Dept. of Homeland Security in DC, do not agree.
Right now, that doesn't matter.

Increasing security and stepping-up checks are wise moves. They are deterrents.
There are many reasons to go on high profile alert:
To try to catch the terrorists
To show the terrorists that you know something
To bluff the terrorists
To turn up the pressure so that the components of the attack, like pieces of a puzzle, do not come together
To make the public feel safer

Holiday time is a particularly good time for terrorist strikes. The Jewish High Holidays, especially in a city like NY, are no exception.
May the year be happy and healthy, secure and safe, for us all.



Bush On Terror: The Time Issue
By Micah Halpern

October 6. 2005

I've been thinking:

Washington closed down for business this morning.

Everyone who is anyone came to hear the president deliver his latest speech against terror. As soon as I heard George Bush read off the roster of administration officials I knew this was to be an "important" speech.

And it was - in one very particular way.
The president explained the time frame for fighting terror.

In a thorough explication of terror Bush laid out his objective to fight terror and to spread democracy. Most Americans are familiar with all that. It was a review.

Clearly and precisely Bush underscored the issues and the seriousness of the threat. Most Americans understand the impact it has on our lives. It was reinforcement.

The essential element of the speech is the time frame.
This war will take a very long time. Do not waiver. Not now. Not in the future. The only way to defeat terror is to be proactive and to advance democracy.
That's a hard lesson for Americans, especially in this age of immediacy.

"Never back down. Never give in. Never accept anything less than complete victory over terror," said the president. I add: Never rush.



Terror Warnings For Jewish Holidays
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday October 5

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has issued severe warnings against travel to Sinai during the Holidays.
There is very specific and very clear intelligence that Israelis in Sinai will be targeted during this period.

Behavior during the Jewish Holiday period is predictable - thousands of Israelis swarming to the inexpensive vacation resorts of the Red Sea - and that is exactly what makes it the perfect time to strike out at Israelis. Terrorists can plan for months in anticipation of a sure thing, waiting targets, an easy hit.

It is precisely because this time of year is such easy prey for terrorists that, in addition to issuing travel warnings, Israel also closes the borders with the West Bank and Gaza.

The bad news: 2,500 tourists are now in Sinai and several thousand more will probably venture over.
The good news: last year on the eve of Rosh Hashanah there were 30,000 Israelis in Sinai.



Shootout in the PA Corral
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday October 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I call it Shootouts at the OK Corral, Palestinian style.
Palestinian Authority and Hamas forces have been going at it as the PA tries, rather unsuccessfully, to enforce their new Weapons Law.
Real enforcement of the law will require even more confrontations, but this is certainly a shot in the right direction.

The shootouts are a result of Hamas refusal to discontinue their habit of parading through the streets with weapons drawn, shooting in the air. The new Weapons Law also declares it illegal for anyone but Palestinian Authority police to carry weapons. Hamas agreed to this condition, and now boldly flaunts the law.

These public parades have resulted in several tragic mishaps and many deaths. In the shootout resulting from one recent Hamas parade two police were killed, ten police were wounded and twenty Hamas members were wounded.

The only way for the Palestinian Authority to stabilize the situation is to stop each parade and prevent every march, to head the situation off at the pass.
It will be a hard task, but it is the only way.



Will Israel Bomb Iran?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday October 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A Saudi newspaper is spreading some serious rumors - and I believe them.
The rumors are based on too many plausible, accurate and unpublished, details to be discounted.
Sunday October 2, 2005

The story goes that Ariel Sharon handed George Bush aerial photos when they last met. They showed how Iran's nuclear development program is progressing.

Evidently, Bush referred Sharon to Condi Rice.
Rice told Sharon that at this time the United States and Europe are opting to go the diplomatic route. That means quiet pressure.
Israel said they will respect the decision, but they will not wait forever.

No doubt Iranian nukes threaten the entire region, but Israel is most threatened. No doubt Israel has a plan to strike at Iran's nukes.
It would be unwise for Israel to attack without United States cover. Best scenario would be a coordinated US led attack without any Israel involvement.

Diplomatic pressure of the past few weeks has delayed the inevitable reality.
But no doubt about it, Iran will finalize their nuclear program in only a few years.



Arab State Returns Israeli Meds
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United Arab Emirates is considered by the Western world to be one of the less extreme of Arab countries.
Less extreme, it seems, is a very subjective term.

Here's what I mean: Just yesterday, a hospital in the UAE decided to return $50,000 worth of medical equipment. Why? The equipment came from Israel.

Who will benefit from this medical equipment, after all, if not the citizens of the UAE. And yet, this hospital is willing to take second best, more expensive materials rather than own equipment that is, shudder, shudder, Made In Israel.

What a warped sense of priority.
Pity the people of the United Arab Emirates.
Hatred of Israel colors important decision making and skews analyses.
UAE leaders should concentrate on the future well being of their people, not dwelling on ancient issues of hatred.

Here's a little word to the unwise: No one says that you have to publicize the fact that the equipment came from Israel. Be discreet. There are other countries around the world keeping Made In Israel products a national secret.

The UAE needs to rethink priorities, tactics and the well being of its people.



Shame On The Arab League
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This is what Amir Mousa, the Secretary General of the Arab League, said to the Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat:

"Israel's policies do not deserve Arab courtesy"... "Why are they offering (Israel) free rewards?" ... "I don't understand why they are hailing Israel. Because of the withdrawal from Gaza? Doesn't everyone know that this is an incomplete withdrawal and that settlements are still being built and that the wall is being built?"

Officially, Israel has full normal diplomatic relations with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Mauritainia. During the past few weeks other Muslim countries, incuding Pakistan, Indonesia, Tunisia and Qatar, have engaged in dialogue with Israel.

Since its inception, the philosophy of the Arab League has been hatred towards Israel. Mousa, like many other Arab leaguers, still does not believe that diplomatic relations with Israel is in the best interests of the Arab League. While more and more Arab countries are becoming aware of the benefits of improved realtions with the United States and with Israel there are still many who cling to long held antagonisms.

It seems to me that the Arab League is not interested in progress for Muslim states. It seems to me that the Arab League prefers instead to unite their countries in the hatred of Israel than see them flourish. That is a shame. There is much that Arab countries can learn from Israel. Economic stability would be a good start.



Egypt Leads the Arab World
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

President Hosni Mubarak, the dean of Arab leadership, played host to two colleagues over the past couple of days.
The leaders of Libya and the Palestinian Authority came to Egypt in search of advice.

Egypt, under Mubarak's reign, is a major player in the Arab world. The President of Egypt has successfully courted the West without losing standing in the Muslim world. Mubarak is the address for perspective, tactics, analysis and advise on issues concerning the Arab world, the United States and Israel.

Abbas came to Egypt to ask Mubarak to reign in Israel explaining that the new round of Israeli attacks on Hamas are going to hurt his stability.
In response, Mubarak urged Abbas to take a stand against Hamas.

Khadaffi came to Egypt to ask Mubarak to help Libya better their relations with the United States and to make certain that Egypt watches over the Palestinians.
In response, Mubarak explained the virtues of patience, advising Khadaffi to lay low, be pleasant and certainly not sponsor terror for the time being. As regards the Palestinians, Egypt is of course, keeping a close eye on them.

It sounds like sound advice to me.



Bombing Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is bombing Hamas and Islamic Jihad strongholds in Gaza.
Israel bombed the road that Hamas terrorists use to transport kassam rockets to their launch locations.
The IDF has targeted Hamas and Islamic Jihad offices.
The IDF has knocked out electricity in parts of Gaza City.

Why?
Because Palestinian terrorists are shooting rockets at the Israeli city of Sderot.
Because no one in the Palestinian Authority is stopping them, so Israel must.

Israel has intel that Hamas is planning an attack inside the country.
Israel has no alternative other than sending bombs into Gaza after Israeli cities are attacked. It is the correct response, especially now.

Mohamed al Hindi, the man in charge of Hamas in Gaza, has said that Hamas will halt the launching of rockets against the Zionist entity. Of course they will. They are being pummeled.
Islamic Jihad closed their radio station in Gaza out of fear that it would be bombed. That was a smart move.

Israelis might be out of Gaza, but the situation in Gaza is not yet over.
What will happen if Gaza continues to be a launching pad for rockets and terror? Life in Gaza will be Hell.



Turkey- Israel Oil Pipeline
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

What do you think of this idea?
Turn Israel into a major player in the oil game by extending a pipeline from Turkey to the port city of Ashkelon and from there to Eilat, in the south portion of the Gulf of the Red Sea.

According to Globes newspaper, a respected Tel Aviv business paper, the plan is already in place and other countries are signing on.

The pipeline will cost $1 billion and it will allow for hundreds of millions of tons of oil to be sent around the world. This is a perfect way to get oil to hard to reach countries that would otherwise rely on the Suez Canal, except that its waters are too shallow to allow for large ships.

India has already signed on. They have committed to 600,000 tons of oil.

This project proves that democratic Muslim countries, like Turkey, can work with Israel to create projects that will truly benefit the world.

Synergy and co-operation. I love it.



Study Bible
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Ministry of Education in Israel is contemplating a move that will strike a blow to the heart and the soul of all Israel.
They are thinking of eliminating Bible as a mandatory subject for "bagrut" high school matriculation exams, the national final exams that grade students on essential subjects.

The Bible is the key document linking Israel to it past, present and future in the land of Israel. Without the Bible there is no significant reason for Israel to exist, and if a Jewish state did exist, without the Bible it could just as easily be located in Canada as in Canaan.

I do not know who is making the decision in the ministry. I do know that of the secular Israeli adults I have spoken with, most are appalled. They totally reject this new educational reform. They may not like religion, they may oppose religion in politics, they are not religious themselves, but almost everyone knows that the study of Bible is essential in order to perpetuate the Jewish State of Israel.

For the sake of the future of Israel I would suggest letting go of some ministry bureaucrats and keeping Bible.



Hamas Kills Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

When I think about rallies and public celebrations, I think of balloons and noisemakers.
When I hear about celebrations sponsored by Hamas, I know that there will be bazookas in place of balloons and the noises will be exploding ammunition.

That's what happened at a Hamas rally celebrating Israel's departure from Gaza.
A truck blew up.
It was filled with kassam missiles, the make shift rockets that Hamas frequently fires into Israel. 19 people were killed, over 80 wounded.
Hamas says that Israel shot the truck from a helicopter gunship.
Palestinian security forces say the explosives were improperly handled.

Last week a Hamas munitions house blew up killing 5 people.
The explosion resulted in a call to be more careful with weapons, especially in public.

Who brings live ammo to parades, to rallies, to celebrations? Who? Why?

There are too many accidental deaths at Hamas rallies.
There can be no justification for taking those lives. They do not care about the deaths of their own.

It seems that the only people they care about killing is Israelis



Hamas Strategy
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A lot of organizations have think tanks and strategy centers.
Al Mustaqbal is the Hamas Strategy Center.
The Center evaluates terror methodology and develops new ideas for attacks against Israel.
The Center also maps out the social services Hamas provides for Palestinians.

Al Mustaqbal recently published several important and enlightening studies.
I've read the studies. The bottom line is that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza is forcing Hamas to change their modus operandi.

Most important: Attacks against Israel will continue but on a smaller scale so as not to draw large-scale retaliation and the possibility of re-invasion of Palestinian cities. The studies call for a period of quiet followed by an escalation in attacks.

Next: Methods of attack must be changed. With no Jews in Gaza the focus will turn to the West Bank and Israel's security fence will certainly impair the ability to attack easily. Rockets and drive by shootings are the new attacks of choice.

Finally: Hamas does not believe that the Palestinian Authority will successfully disarm them. Their fear is Israeli retaliation, nothing else.

What can I say? Hamas has said it all.



Good Cop-- Bad Cop
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, the State Department in a document summarizing the Quartet's decisions called on Israel to keep up the momentum of their departure from Gaza, suggesting that Israel should relinquish, i.e. withdraw from, more West Bank settlements.

Yesterday, President Bush reminisced about his 1998 helicopter ride with Ariel Sharon, about how that trip made him realize exactly how narrow a country Israel is, how vulnerable it is and how important the security of Israel is to the United States.

Once again, the United States played "bad cop -- good cop" with Israel.
But the game is getting stale.
Good cop White House and bad cop State Department had better come up with a new game plan, a more convincing cover, better diplomatic tactics.

Everyone knows that Israel and the United States have a special relationship. No one needs reminding, certainly not Israel, certainly not the Arab world.
No one needs reminding except maybe the State Department.

State Department get with the program you're not fooling anyone except yourselves.



Times Are A Changin'
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The times they are a changin'.
Relationships between Israel and several Muslim countries, long thought of as taboo, impossible, impermissible, seem to be warming up.

Look who's talking:
Pakistan and Israel have begun talking publicly and President Musharaf even introduced his wife to Prime Minister Sharon at a United Nations reception.

Israel's foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, has in the past few weeks met with the foreign ministers of Morocco, Qatar, and Tunisia as well as Jordan and Egypt.

The foreign minister of Bahrain has just confirmed that his country has rescinded their direct and indirect boycott of Israel.

Afghanistan and Israel have been involved in behind the scenes exchanges.

A new era has begun. I do not know what it all means or where it will lead, but you can bet that I'll be watching carefully and listening closely.



A French Faux Pas
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

One of the job requirements for being a world leader, it seems, is not knowledge of world history. At least that seems to be the case in France.

In an effort to smooth over the rocky relations between Israel and France the French foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Balzy, paid a visit to Israel earlier this month. While there he made an obligatory appearance at Yad Vashem, Israel's memorial to the Holocaust.

Innocently, but persistently, the French foreign minister asked about England, whether British communities had not also been destroyed by the Nazis. He wanted to know if British Jews had also been murdered.

How do you say "duh" in French? This man is not a youngster. He has been the health minister of France and is a trained cardiologist.

According to Le Canard Enchaine, the satirical French magazine reporting the story, no one will confirm this extreme faux pas, but neither will anyone deny it.

This is a case where "no comment" would have served the minister well.

You wonder how anyone can tease Bush.



Road Rage PA Style
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There's road rage - and then there's road rage.
But rarely do things escalate as violently as they did in the Palestinian city of Ramallah yesterday.
It all began with a parking space...

A Palestinian Commando soldier was prevented from parking his car by a group of National Security Forces. The soldier returned a few minutes later accompanied by a group of friends. They began shooting.

The result was 60 security police shooting it out in the middle of Ramallah. Ambulances came racing.

Chaos? Confusion? Commotion?
The entire episode sounds like gangs of gun toting teenagers, certainly not soldiers and police charged with keeping the rest of society safe and secure.

Sounds like Palestinians need to be kept safe from these people, not by them.



PA: When Is Enough Enough?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It is time to ask some serious questions about Palestinian goals and expectations.

In his speech before the UN General Assembly Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made some revolutionary statements. He said:
"The right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel does not mean disregarding the rights of others in the land."
"They [Palestinians] are also entitled to freedom and to a national, sovereign existence in a state of their own."

Sharon was open, blunt, honest and magnanimous.
How did the Palestinians interpret his words?

According to Jabril Rajoub, the PA chief advisor on security, "The message that everyone in the street got was building settlements, what's happening in Jerusalem, and the fence."

Palestinians have determined that Sharon is not giving enough.
Will it ever be enough?
Will Palestinians ever be able to coexist with Israel?
Will Palestinians ever hear anything other than the chanting of their own defeatist, defiant mantra?



Iran Lends Nukes To Muslim States
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Now hear this: "Iran is ready to transfer nuclear know how to the Islamic countries to due their need."
Those are the words of the new president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The statement was made Thursday, at the United Nations, following a meeting with the Turkish prime minister.
The quote ran on the official Iranian news wire, IRNA, the Islamic Republic News Agency. It is the official statement of the government of Iran and it is out there for all of us to read and remember.
The president wanted his statement to be broadcast around the world. He was right to do so. He has demonstrated to the world just how dangerous and irresponsible his leadership is.

The day before this statement was made Ahmadinejad stood before the General Assembly and proclaimed that the purpose of the United Nations was to promote "global peace and tranquility."
Pity the poor man, he just doesn't understand why the United States and the United Nations are trying to curtail the nuclear activities of Iran.

Iran may be a member of the United Nations, but Iran is certainly not a disciple of the UN agenda.



PA Blames Israel Again
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, the Palestinians are blaming Israel for their problems.
I predicted it would happen and so did Ariel Sharon.

What is it this time?
The Gaza - Egyptian border, it seems, is out of control.
Palestinians are storming back and forth as if there were no border at all.
They go out to eat, to shop, to visit and then back again.
Hamas actually blew a hole in the fence.

What does Israel have to do with all this?
Nothing, unless you are Nasser al Kidwa, the Palestinian Foreign Minister.

Al Kidwa publicly blamed Israel for the disorder.
He said that Israel is to blame because they did not negotiate the Gaza withdrawal with the Palestinians.
I would call the Palestinian reaction a deflection of responsibility.
Actually, Israel negotiated with Egypt to make sure the border would be secured.

Who is going to straighten out this mess?
Not Israel. Not anymore.



The US Promised Israel 2B
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday September 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Issue # 1: The White House promised Israel $2.25 billion for biting the bullet and exiting Gaza.
Issue # 2: The recovery and restoration effort in the wake of Hurricane Katrina has been estimated to be at least $100 billion.

Serious questions are now being asked in Jerusalem and DC.
Should Israel request all the money? Can they, in good conscious, expect it?
If Israel does not receive the promised billions, is that a violation of a US commitment and does that nullify other agreements made under the assumption that compensatory monies would be forthcoming?

Honestly, given the monumental destruction and devastation it would be naive for Israel to assume that the $2.25 billion would just be there to give Israel.
But it would also be naive for the US to assume that Israel got out of Gaza for nothing, without getting anything in return.

My recommendation is a "slow time released solution."
I recommend that over the next 5 years the US monies be allocated to Israel.
Israel gets it reward and the United States can re-proportion budgets to meet these immediate and unforeseen needs.

That's what friends are for.



Watch Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad has sent a message to Palestinian terror organizations working out of Syria to continue their struggle for a Palestinian State in the aftermath of the Gaza redeployment.

I wonder how he did that. After all, just a little while ago he made comments to the effect that all Palestinian terrorist offices had been shut down in Syria.

Assad has a love/hate relationship with terrorists.
Syria sponsors terror outside Syria, but Syria will not tolerate any terror internally. Syria will sponsor Palestinian terror, terror in Iraq, terror in Lebanon.
But Syria will brutally handle any threat of internal terror or challenge to its leadership. Several days ago, for example, 5 terrorists were killed in a shootout with Syrian forces in the city of Hama.

Assad is struggling with his reputation and the way he is perceived by the US.
Syria sent a condolence message to the US in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina. Why? Reason #1 is that it made them look bigger in the eyes of their people and in the eyes the Arab world. Syria can now say that even though the US may attack them they are "above it all" and that human tragedy trumps politics.
Reason #2 is that Assad is trying to show the United States that he is not mono-dimensional, that he has good sides as well as the bad sides.

I monitor Syria carefully. It's important.
I view what happens in Syria as a litmus test for the rest of the Middle East.



9-11 Anniversary
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today is 9-11-2005.

We must always remember the lesson we were taught four years ago today.
We must teach that lesson to our children.

The terror threat against the US and the West will continue for years to come.

We must convince our leaders of the need to always fight terror.
We must realize just how real and dangerous the threat of terror is.
We must search out and find the terrorists before allowing them to strike.
We must never become placid or deluded by the quiet between terror attacks.
We must understand the ultimate goals of terrorists.
We must not make excuses for terror.
We must try to reeducate the world so that terror is never justified.
We must create an unambiguous definition of terror.

The more that time separates us from 9-11 the less real the threat, the less vivid the memory. That frightens me.

I understand terror and terror is not going away.



Arafat Shot 23 Times To The Head
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Press coverage of the assassination of Gaza Chief of Security Mousa Arafat, gunned down in his Gaza home, neglected to report some very important details.

The assassination was conducted as a military strike.
There were at least 30 attackers.
The shootout lasted 45 minutes.
The first shots fired were rockets launched into the house.
The son of Arafat was kidnapped during the melee and has since been released.
The Popular Resistance Committees is - once again - claiming responsibility for the attack.

Most disturbing was that this mini war was conducted only several hundred feet away from the Palestinian Authority Office for Counter Terror.
It took place only a few hundred feet away from the residence of President Mohammad Abbas who is said to have heard the shootout.
It was right near the Interior Ministry for Safety, the governmental body responsible for security and a few feet away other government offices and from private homes with their own extensive security systems.

The only reason the shooting ended after 45 minutes was because the mission was accomplished - Mousa Arafat was dead.
Mousa Arafat was grabbed, shot in both legs, dragged out of his home and publicly assassinated, 23 bullets to his head.

Where were the reinforcements? Didn't anybody have a conscience?



Arafat Haunts Us From The Grave
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yassir Arafat continues to haunt Israel, even from his grave.

Arafat's death read like a murder mystery. Was he poisoned? Did he have AIDS? Did Israel do it? Was it an intricate plan formulated by the Shin Bet?

Now, nearly a year later, the final chapter in the life and death of Yassir Arafat has been written. A physician's health report has been secretly released. The mystery is over. The doctor confirms that - it was all pure paranoia, speculation, a desire to blame Israel.
Arafat died of a massive brain hemorrhage.

Yes, Arafat had AIDS. Yes, Arafat suffered a bad case of food poisoning shortly before his death causing incontrollable and constant vomiting and diarrhea. Yes, Arafat led a decades long life of decadence. But none of that killed him, and neither did Israel.

Those who want to blame Israel already have and always will.
Nasser al Kidwa, the Palestinian Authority foreign minister and former PA Ambassador to the United Nations and a nephew of Yassir Arafat calls the report inconclusive. It was Kidwa who was shouting that Israel had poisoned Arafat.

Expect a sequel.



Arafat Assassination Shows Anarchy
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Mousa Arafat is dead. He was assassinated.

Who was Mousa Arafat ?
He was a close relative and trusted confidante of Yassir Arafat. The two were in exile in Tunisia together and later returned to the Palestinian territories together.

Mousa Arafat was one of Yassir Arafat's security chiefs and was later appointed Assistant Chief of Security in Gaza by Arafat's successor, Mohammad Abbas.

Why should we care?
The Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility, then denied playing any role in the assassination out of fear of reprisal from the Abbas government.

This assassination was a direct attack on Abbas and on the Arafat legacy.
This assassination was a direct attack on the idea that Palestinians create a civil state next to Israel.
This assassination was a direct attack against those demanding that all non-police personnel i.e. terrorists, turn in their weapons.

Sharon was correct. His plan was to force Palestinians to fight against each other. Sharon wanted to force Gaza into anarchy.
Abbas has no choice. He must now force all terrorist groups, including Hamas, to disarm.

If not - he might be next.



Give Oil Not Money
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday September 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Blessings and condolences.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, we are learning not only a lot about ourselves as Americans but also about other nations around the world. It's interesting and important to pay attention to what other counties are saying and doing in support of the United States.

The Palestinian Authority has offered blessings and wishes.
So has Israel, and they are sending army rescue teams and Israeli Red Cross, Magen David Adom, teams to aid in the recovery of bodies.

Kuwait and Qatar have also responded to the crisis.
Kuwait has pledged $500 million "of oil products needed by afflicted states in these conditions and other humanitarian assistance."
Qatar has pledged $100 million.

Money is nice, but not the issue. We would all be better off if these countries chose to really help by increasing oil production and dropping oil prices. We would all be better off if they convinced OPEC that it is the right thing to do.

A few hundred million dollars is a drop in the bucket.
More oil in the pipe line, that would be true humanitarian assistance.



Condolences From Al Qaeda
By Micah Halpern

Monday September 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Many messages of condolence have been sent in response to Hurricane Katrina.
But nothing like this.

"Congratulations to the Islamic nation, to our sheikh Osama abu Abdullah (Osama bin Laden) and to sheikh Ayman Zawahiri (bin Laden's deputy) for the destruction of America, which is at the forefront of evil. It is the start of its collapse."... "God attacked America and the prayers of the oppressed were answered."... "The wrath of the All-powerful fell upon the nation of oppressors (The US)... Their dead are in the thousands and their losses are in the billions."... "Only recently America killed and starved whoever it wanted, but today it is appealing for oil and food."

This is the message of terrorist leader and head of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarkawi. It was posted on a website on Sunday.

Do not be surprised. The enemies of the United States have found that God or Allah hates us and loves them. Do not be surprised.

But here is the catch: Yes, this was an act of God, a devastating act of God.
Just as I do not understand why God allowed this to happen, believe me, neither do bin Laden, Zawahiri and Zarkawi.



Pakistan & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday September 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The foreign minister of Pakistan met with the Israeli foreign minister this past week in Istanbul.
With that meeting the FM took the first step in establishing warm, friendly, diplomatic relations between the countries.

It was an enormous gesture.
Pakistan is the second largest populated Muslim state in the world and sets the tone for Muslim character. This meeting paves the way for other Muslim states to also establish significant relationships with Israel.

Pakistan also has a history of aiding al Qaeda. Bin Laden is probably hiding on or near the Pakistani border. Yet, Pakistan is working hard in the fight against terror and has been instrumental in aiding the United States in the fight.

Israel has a very close military relationship with India, Pakistan's neighbor and traditional archenemy. Over the past year, as a result of mutual interests and especially the fight against terror, tensions have rescinded between the two countries.

Israel has much to offer a country like Pakistan.
Pakistan can be a model for other Muslim states.
A first step in the right direction.



Putin's Stupid Ploy
By Micah Halpern

Saturday September 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Vladimir Putin really stuck his foot in his mouth yesterday.
He spoke the truth, but his truth is detrimental to his country.

Speaking to families and survivors on the anniversary of the horrific terror attack that took place last year in Beslan Russia School #1 Putin said:
"I must say, immediately, I agree with those who believe that the state is not in the condition to provide for the security of its citizens to the necessary degree."

It seems clear that the Russian model of fighting terror is not very practical.
Their objective in a hostage situation is to kill the terrorists, not to save hostages. We were witness to that model in the Moscow theater and again in Beslan.

The very essence of his and the state's responsibility to its citizens is security and safety. If the President thinks himself incapable of shouldering that responsibility he should step down or do what it takes to improve the situation.

World leaders cannot and should not capitulate to terrorist demands. Leaders must show power and strength in face of terror and bring citizens together united against the evil.

The comments made by Putin did exactly the opposite.
His words should be even stronger than his actions.
Take no prisoners. Seek and destroy.



Terrorost's Last Will & Testament
By Micah Halpern

Friday September 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Mohammad Sidique Khan's last will and testament ended up at al Jazerah TV.
They broadcast his words around the world. Most of us missed it.
Mohammad Sidique Khan was one of the July 7th London suicide bombers.

Khan wrote: "therefore we will talk to you in a language that you understand. Our words are dead until we give them blood."
He was trying to teach the West a lesson.
It is a lesson we already know.
It is a lesson the terrorists will never learn.

Khan confirmed what we all understand to be true: the language of the terrorists is blood and the language of the West is words.

The reality is that the West disagrees with the very premise of the terrorist.
The West heard the terrorist point of view and rejected it.
One of the greatest freedoms the West has is the ability to agree to disagree, while terrorists need everyone to conform to their point of view.
Terrorists murder in order to make their point and to force people to capitulate.

Khan inserted Zawahiri, bin Laden's # 2, in his video will.
He wanted to draw a connection: from Khan to al Qaeda and world terror.
Here is the real connection. All terrorists, from Khan to bin Laden, want to frighten the West into submission. But the West will not submit and that is something that terrorists, world over, do not understand. They never will.



A Jewish Constitution in Iraq?
By Micah Halpern

Thursday September 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunni population of Tikrit, in Iraq, held a protest rally.
The organization of this protest is typical of the problems the US faces is Iraq.

The point of the rally was to protest the new constitution. But that was hard to figure because the posters they were parading were pictures of Saddam Hussein and their shouts proclaimed him as their leader. It makes some sense since Tikrit is, after all, Saddam's hometown.

What was their problem with the new constitution? Is it unfair? No. Too Shiite oriented? No. Not protective enough of minorities? No.
Their problem is that they think the new constitution is Jewish.

How can a constitution be Jewish?
And even if it is, what is wrong with that?
The Koran is filled with Jewish stories, replete with Jewish prophets and teachers, and Abraham was the father of both Isaac and Ishmael.
Their ultimate putdown is actually a compliment.

Iraqis must stop focusing on Israel and Jews and blaming them for all their problems.
It's time for Iraqis to take a long, hard look at themselves and start the process of self-correction.



Bibi's Ploy
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 31, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's ruling Likud party is being put to the test.
Will they emerge smart and savvy, or will they sink fast and foolishly?

The Likud party, it seems, wants to replace the party leader, Ariel Sharon, with Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. Party apparatchiks are still livid, furious with Sharon for proceeding with the Gaza disengagement despite their protests.

Here's the catch:
Sharon may not be popular within his party, but he is overwhelmingly popular among the general voters.
Netanyahu is the flavor of the month for Likud members, but not at all popular among the general population and could not win a national election.

Is Likud mature enough to put the party before intra-party politics, or will they commit political suicide to get revenge for Gaza?
If Likud ousts Sharon the voter alternative is not Netanyahu, the alternative is the Labor party and that would probably mean giving Shimon Peres the premiership.
Right now, Labor is floundering with only 17 Knesset seats. The best thing that could happen for Labor (not Likud) is the ousting of Sharon.

This is not rocket science, it is simple straightforward analysis.
My suggestion to Likud members: GET OVER IT, and by the way, the settler community doesn't vote for you anyway.



Security Snafu: Who is In Charge?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Post 9-11, Americans have been conditioned to accept and expect adequate and appropriate security measures
We expect that those responsible for our safety exhibit mature thinking, accountability and responsibility.

So explain this:
On Saturday August 27th a ticking package, wrapped in duct tape, was discovered by TSA (Transportation Safety Administration) workers in their confiscated items bin at JFK airport in New York. Two entire terminals were evacuated. Departing planes were pulled back from their gates and arriving planes did not approach their disembarking arms. Thousands of passengers were stuck for three hours, from 11am to 2pm. The TSA sounded the alarm and the NYC Bomb Squad was summoned.

What did the Bomb Squad find?
They found that the package was an IED, an Improvised Explosive Device.
It was not a hoax. It was not a drill. It was a mistake.

The TSA intended the device for training exercises and left it there by accident.
Mistakes are excusable. What is not excusable is that the TSA refused to accept that it was their fault. Something is wrong when the people we empower to handle our security lack quality of character. That does not make me feel safe.

In issues of security we must know with confidence where the buck stops.



The Synagogues in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli Supreme Court just passed an injunction preventing twenty synagogues in Gaza from being destroyed.

Wasn't the synagogue issue resolved from the outset? A promise had been made that all Gaza synagogues were to be relocated inside Israel.
Well, that was the original intention.
That was before the structural engineers were brought in and it was determined that only 2 small structures could withstand, the move the other 20 had to be destroyed.

Now that there is an injunction against destroying the synagogues, the only alternative is to keep them where they are.
But is that in Israel's best interest?

The Rabbinic Court has just stepped in with a ruling prohibiting the destruction of any synagogue.
The Rabbinic Court has said synagogues may not be destroyed. That just because a synagogue is not being used and there are no longer Jews in the region, no local government should be allowed to destroy a compound or structure. No government, not even Israel.
Imagine the precedent that it would set in Eastern Europe and across the world if Israelis were to destroy synagogues.

Israel's Rabbinic Court wants the synagogues to remain and to be preserved - even under Palestinian control.
Israel's Supreme Court agrees.



Democracy in Egypt?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

September 7th. The first presidential election in Egyptian history.
Ten candidates will vie for the position.
Ten candidates who have no chance at all of winning.
The # 1 spot will certainly remain with the incumbent, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for the last 24 years.
But it's a start, a step in the right direction, for Egypt's 72 million citizens.

This election does not mean that Egypt will suddenly become a Western democracy. It does not mean that Egypt will embrace the values of debate and freedom and cast off a long history of dictatorship.
This election signals that change is happening. Slow change. And that is the best way to accomplish true reform in the Arab world.

If you are hoping for success, introduce change in the Arab world through internal reforms created and initiated by the leaders themselves, not by ousting the leaders.
As time goes on the dictator "moves on" in a natural non-violent way and the country inherits a better, freer society.
Then and only then will changes be internalized by the people and integrated into the fabric and values of Arab culture.
True and lasting change in the Arab world will not be due to America's intervention but to internal local transformations.

Marx was wrong.
Revolutions create crisis and catastrophe, never better societies.



Gaza Follow-up: Cruel, Thoughtless
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and Northern Samaria was textbook perfect from the military standpoint.
But their follow-up, the human interest element, is another story.

Criminal. Negligent. Thoughtless. Cruel.

The final details, the what-happens-next to Israelis citizens deported from their homes to other parts of Israel were never straightened out, in fact, they were probably hardly thought about.

I'm not just talking about money, about being compensated for their homes. And by the way, renters living in Gaza and Northern Samaria will receive nothing.
Residents were charged for their move.
Residents received electric company bills for disconnecting their service.
Residents are squeezed into fleabag hotels, whole families in one room.

The government must pick up the moving charges.
The government controls the electric company and should receive all bills.
The government provided 1000 rooms for 1700 families, each family averaging about 7 people.
The army is counseling all soldiers regardless of whether they suffer from redeployment related trauma, but no social workers or psychologists have been assigned to help the now former residents of Gaza or Northern Samaria.

This is unforgivable. These are people deserving of respect.



Iraq's Constitution
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

All this critique of the future Iraqi constitution shows how little people really understand the region.

On the issue of Islamic law--
No evolving democracy in Iraq, or anywhere in the Arab world, could be transformed into a Jeffersonian democracy.
Islam is not just a religion- it is a culture, a worldview, the basic unifying force for believers.

The drafters of the Iraqi constitution will base their document on principles held sacred by Islam just the way Jefferson did. The role of Christianity is implicitly understood in the establishment of America and it is for that reason that the official day of rest became "Sunday The Sabbath Day" and that principles like "in God we trust" resonate so prominently.

On the issue of the Islamification of Iraq -
I just do not see it happening.
The vast majority of Iraqi people, even clerics, do not want an Iran in Iraq.
Neither do they want a totally secular state.

The task confronting Iraq today is meshing Islamic cultural ideals with democratic doctrine. It can be done. That is how Judaism informs Israel's democracy. It is the way Christianity informed the founding of the United States.

Iraq's success depends on the blending of the best of both worlds -- not the worst of each.



Lesson From Redeployment
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There are important lessons to be learned from Israel's redeployment from Gaza. Tactics applied during this massive withdrawal will be studied in FBI, police and rescue academies around the world for decades to come, much like the lessons learned after the Six Day War.

Lesson #1 -- Vox Populi. The masses backed the redeployment despite the very loud protestations of a small but vocal minority. The mood of the people speaks volumes.

Lesson #2 -- Looks can be deceiving. The world was bombarded with images of the settlers as extremists. They were just citizens exercising their democratic right to protest.

Lesson #3 -- Outsiders do not speak for insiders. They are in and out, single issue instigators, concerned with their own agenda oblivious to the larger picture.

Lesson #4 -- Well trained forces can defuse the most explosive situation. Proper training can turn an ugly situation into a publicity success. Training in psychology and social work are as important as military training.

Lesson #5 -- People will see what they want to believe. The United States still thinks this is about peace. Palestinians see the redeployment as their success.

Lesson #6 -- Patience and perseverance pay off. Ten days later, it was all done.



Why? 4 West Bank Settlements
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday August 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Sa Nur & Homesh are being dismantled.
These Israeli settlements are situated in the very northernmost part of Samaria. Homesh is high up, Sa Nur sits in the valley near an old train station originally built by the Turks.
They are both isolated, surrounded by Arab communities.

Sa Nur and Homesh were placed where they are in order to control access routes and to strategically separate Palestinian areas.
Removing these settlements (along with Gadim and Kadim) allows Palestinians total freedom of movement in the Northern Samaria.

Unlike any settlement in Gaza the evacuation of Homesh now provides Palestinians with an extremely important summit that can easily be used as a launching pad for missiles targeting settlements as well as Israel proper.

Gaza was Philistine.
Northern Samaria is where the Biblical prophets wandered.
Northern Samaria is Biblical Israel, it resonates with powerful historical significance.



Abbas-Hamas Piss Match
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The response of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza is more than problematic. It is self-destructive.

Abbas has the need to claim credit for making Gaza Israeli-free.
So does Hamas.
That pits Abbas against Hamas in a pissing match.

Abbas should be emphasizing the positives like infrastructure, the future, a better life, more security, new jobs, education and unity, independence. If he were a world-caliber leader Abbas would be showering praise on Israel. Instead he continues to verbally attack Israel for not having done enough and for their continued settlement policy. His style will not win points around the world and, worse, it will probably fail even inside the Palestine Authority.

Abbas cannot out-Hamas Hamas. He needs to realize that.
His speeches have the distinct tone of election stumping against Hamas for the January 2006 parliamentary elections.
He needs to provide a serious alternative to extreme Hamas rhetoric.
He needs to speak of a positive future for the masses, for the salt of the earth Palestinians.

Without that he will substantially reduce his significant majority.

Palestinians want a change. Some have already chosen Hamas. It will be an inexcusable blunder and shame if Abbas himself pushes the others in the same direction.



The Gaza Script
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The evacuation of Gaza settlers from their homes and communities was a carefully choreographed production borne out of pain and compassion.

90% of the residents stuck to the script - they rejected any violence against the army while at the same time they tried hard to prevent themselves from being carried out by 4, 5 or 6 soldiers. In the end - with tears and public acts of mourning - they acquiesced and allowed themselves to be removed. The result was highly emotionally charged true-to-life theater.

But there were those who deviated from the production, who tried to grab headlines by striking out against the soldiers, by attempting to harm them.

Some of the adolescent kids who came to help bolster the numbers and strength of the settlers were out of control. Their actions were shameful. They broke the rules of the game. The damaged caused by these kids is immeasurable.

Greater Israel may still have respect for the settlers, but they lost respect for some of today's youth, the kids who were intended to be the hope of tomorrow. And that is a sad final act to play out on the world's media stage.



Al Qaeda in Jordan
By Micah Halpern

August 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The first missile attack from Jordan to Eilat since 1968 took place today.
Al Qaeda is responsible, almost without a doubt.

Three Katyusha missiles were shot inside the port city of Aqaba, Jordan today.
Two of the missiles were directed at US vessels in the Red Sea Port.
One missile targeted the Israeli international airport in the city of Eilat, just over the border.
The two missiles missed the US targets, the third fell 15 feet short of the airport.

Jordanian intelligence recently interrogated several al Qaeda members who confessed to a plan to fire rockets at Israel from Aqaba.
The spent rocket launchers were discovered in an Aqaba warehouse that was rented last week to four foreigners holding Egyptian and Iraqi passports.

Both Egypt and Jordan have serious al Qaeda cells working and planning and attacking, we have witnessed their work. Both countries are working hard to confront al Qaeda, but the threat is far from over. For these two Western-leaning Arab countries, like for all Western countries, this is only beginning.

There is one redeeming point: al Qaeda terrorists are terrible shots.
But we cannot expect ineptitude forever.



Lone Jewish Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet, the Israeli Internal Security Forces, is scouring the entire country of Israel. They have been combing the country for many weeks now.
For whom are they searching? Lone extremists.

Lone extremists like Asher Weissgan who demonstrated his opposition to the Gaza Withdrawal by picking up a weapon and murdering 4 Palestinians after having lunch with them.
Lone extremists like the woman who set herself on fire as her form of protest.
Lone extremists like AWOL soldier Edan Natan Sada who randomly murdered Israeli Arabs in the village of Shfaram.

Lone extremists are the bane of security teams and theorists.
Unlike organizations with leaders and members, lone extremists are difficult to predict and almost impossible to locate and catch in advance.
Fortunately, lone extremism is not catchy, the cry of one does not stimulate others to act.

Lone extremists act in order to call attention to their cause, not themselves.
The reality is that their actions, while often deadly, are misplaced.
The reality is that their actions do not further their cause.




Did You Know That in Gaza...
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Did You Know:
That the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is called "Operation Brotherly Hand."
That the army and police are unarmed and not about to use weapons on settlers.

That every single Gaza settler/resident I spoke with assured me that they would not fight the army because they or their children are soldiers.
That they describe themselves as good citizens of Israel who just vehemently disagree with this decision by the government.

That over 4000 outsiders have infiltrated into Gaza over the summer.
That almost all of them are religious high school kids on the summer vacation and they call the activity "The Summer of Disengagement."
That the kids outnumber the settlers in many places and that they, these kid/infiltrators, are setting the tone.

That these high school kids are ignoring their rabbis who have asked them to stop any physical violence, not to slash tires, not to throw or burn things, not even push.
That the rabbis are deeply concerned because the kids are smoking cigarettes and illegal substances and are "fraternizing and more" in ways that are natural but inappropriate for religious kids and especially inappropriate given the cause that brings them together.

That the tensions and conflict brought about by the Gaza Withdrawal has impacted the lives of almost every Israeli.



Gaza Violence--Maybe?
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The international press sees blood in the Gaza Withdrawal.
The potential for violence playing out right before our very eyes is what makes it a good news story. A civil war could erupt right there on live TV.

Here are today's numbers for Morag, a Gaza settlement with a reputation as being religious extremist and ultra nationalist, one of the settlements everyone assumed would refuse relocation:
42 families are there
16 families have already agreed to leave
400 young kids have arrived to bolster the community
The 400 are labeled "infiltrators" by the Israeli Army and by extension, the press.

If there is Israeli violence during the withdrawal process, it will be instigated not by longtime residents, but stimulated by outside activists.
Israel's police and army are prepared, in the words of the commander their job is to "take it and not dish it out."

We need to wait and see, not speculate. Mass violence is possible but unlikely.

The Gaza withdrawal is reality TV in the very real sense.



Gaza Misunderstood
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Most Americans misunderstand Israel's reasons for withdrawing from Gaza.
Most Americans, including President Bush, see the withdrawal as a step toward peace.
Some Americans think that there should be Palestinian reciprocity for the withdrawal.
Some Americans see the withdrawal as the "carrot" in international affairs lingo.
All this is to misunderstand the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

The withdrawal has nothing to do with peace.
The withdrawal was not decided upon for the good of Palestinians.
The withdrawal was undertaken for the sake of Israelis.
Sharon is exiting Gaza to remove Israeli soldiers and settlers from the center of Palestinian terror, so that they are no longer sitting ducks in the terrorists' backyard.

Bodies re-interred. Lives uprooted. Ideology re-directed. Crops abandoned.
But the government, the courts and the people have all spoken.
The vast majority of Israel favors this wrenching act.

Will it make Israel safer in the long range? Will terrorists find a new firing range?
For now, withdrawing from Gaza removes Israeli targets from point blank range.



Arab Mentality
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

According to the Arab world view, everything is a conspiracy. Everyone is always plotting against them. But for the Arab world, that is not necessarily a negative because it means that nothing is their fault.

Think I'm kidding?

Just the other day residents of the Palestinian city Jenin attempted to break the world record for the largest sandwich. The record now held by Portugal is for a sandwich 1900 ft long.

The people of Jenin planned on making their sandwich 2000 ft long with 400 lbs of meat and 1300 lbs of vegetables.

In the end, fearful of spoiled rotting meat, the Palestinian Department of Health cancelled the venture citing the sweltering summer heat.

Here is the response of sandwich organizer, Ahmed Nazal:
We planned to add the meat at the last second to avoid any risk of it rotting. I am certain the other competitors plotted against us.

If you understand the Arab world, you understand the response. It was classic.

Something is definitely rotten in the State of Palestine.



FBI Warns LA, NY & Chicago
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Ports. Gas stations. Large transport trucks.
Trigger words for terror alerts.

Los Angeles was just issued a warning about potential terrorist attacks. The alert came from the California office of the FBI. Other cities put on alert are New York and Chicago. They are to be on the lookout for gasoline tanker trucks.

Gasoline tanker trucks are the perfect weapon for terrorists.
Gas stations and ports are the perfect targets.

Some facts:
Many ports and most gas stations, even in populated areas, remain unprotected.
Many of the 9-11 terrorists had truck driver's licenses.
To drive a truck filled with gasoline or any hazardous material, all you have to do is know how to drive. You don't have to be a US citizen, you don't have to clear security.

In a recent undercover terror sting operation in San Diego one cell member had a trucker's license. Every day he drove his weapon, his truck filled with fuel, into the assumedly secure San Diego Port, an area teaming with highly explosive materials, gasses and chemicals.

We must better protect ourselves. That means making sure that our ports and gas stations are better secured and better situated. That means revamping the trucking industry. Before it's too late.



English Imam in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Thursday August 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon just arrested Omar Bahkri, the notorious, extremist London cleric.

This is a story full of weird twists.
Somehow, Bahkri got out of England and ended up in Lebanon.
England could not and did not arrest him, but Lebanon could and does.
Lebanon will return the cleric to England. It will be interesting to see how the authorities handle him on home turf.

Omar Bahkri is one of the many British clerics who stimulate and embrace terror, one of the people Tony Blair was referring to when he delivered his zero tolerance speech.
Omar Bahkri is quoted as saying that even if he knew that a future attack was imminent he would not tell the authorities.

Another twist: Bahkri says he planned to return to the UK anyway because he is scheduled for an operation - paid for, of course, by National Health and the tax payers of England.

Wow!



Most Want Out Of Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

According to the latest poll Israelis are split almost 60-40 on the Gaza Redeployment issue.
57% of Israelis support withdrawing from Gaza
37% of Israelis oppose it
23% of those who oppose believe that the withdrawal will be considered a victory for the terrorists.

Surprised? Given the press coverage surrounding the Gaza withdrawal, most people probably are. But they should not be. These poll numbers have been pretty stable over the past 4 months.

Why the skewed assumption and perception? Because the media loves to focus on extremists - better pictures, better sound bites, better ratings and larger readership. Resisters are loud, boisterous, colorful, they grab headlines. They speak in exaggerated terms and they threaten gross responses.

But it does not change the reality on the ground.
A clear majority of Israelis support the Gaza Redeployment.



Bibi's Big Mistake
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, "Bibi" Netanyahu resigned as Israel's Finance Minister.
He is no longer a member of Prime Minister Sharon's cabinet.

Netanyahu explains the resignation by saying that he can no longer be part of the government because of the impending unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.
Netanyahu says that the redeployment will result in more terror and that the entire idea goes against the principles of their party, the Likud party.

Bibi Netanyahu is a political animal. He was once prime minister and planned to challenge Ariel Sharon for party leadership and then run again for the premiership. That is why I am surprised that he made this move.

By resigning Netanyahu destroys his ability to get daily media coverage. As an outsider, he must precipitate an event, hold a press conference or grant an interview. As an insider, all he had to do was do his job. It is easier to challenge from within, it is the outsider who needs to work hard to keep in the public eye.

If the redeployment goes relatively smoothly, Sharon wins the popularity polls and Bibi is out of the party mainstream. He becomes the leader of the extreme right not the center, the masses, the nation and he will need to create another political party. And it is not the extreme candidate who gets elected prime minister. If it goes poorly, it still leaves him with the extremes.

I respect Bibi the person for following his conscience -- but it was a poor political move.



Take Israel's Lead to Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Western countries must take Israel's lead in the offensive war against terror.

For example: Israeli police detained a Muslim preacher, an Imam, yesterday. His name is Hamad Bitawi and he preached at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, also known as the Haram el Sharif in Islam.

Why was the Imam detained?
First, because of his preachings in earlier sermons. Authorities said that he was inciting violence.
Second, because he was in Jerusalem without the proper permits.

One day earlier, on Friday, Prime Minister Tony Blair spoke out and declared that Great Britain was changing the rules. They were going to start cracking down on clerics who incite terror.
Bravo! Good for them!

There are limits to free speech.
One of those limits is incitement to mass murder.
We must re-interpret incitement as support of mass murder and terror.
Many terrorists have received enthusiastic recommendations for their deeds by local Imams and that behavior must be stopped.

Anything less will assist terrorists in their mission to destroy our societies.



Canada No Fly List
By Micah Halpern

Saturday August 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Canada is going to institute a No Fly List. People considered to be high risk or potential terrorist material will find their names on the list.
Well excuse me, but where has Canada been until NOW?

And why NOW? Because the United States has requested the manifests of Canadian planes that cross into US space and having to say "no" would cripple the Canadian airline industry.

You are probably asking: How can Canada even function without a list? How can they even assume to pretend that they are protecting their people and their skies? Why hasn't their airline industry been crippled already?

The truth is that Canada is just about one of the worst Western governments when it comes to implementing laws and policies to prevent terror. Even this list will have a "made in Canadian approach," that means not like the US. That is their style in international diplomacy.

The result is that Canada has become a haven for terrorists.
In Canada potential terrorists can meet and plan with almost no fear of being caught. The US is trying to monitor Canadian borders and airports, but it is almost impossible to do because Canada allows asylum and protection to anyone arriving on Canadian soil.
Even NOW.



It's Terror Even When It Is Israeli
By Micah Halpern

Friday August 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Terror is terror. It doesn't matter who the perpetrator is, it doesn't matter what the ideology is
.
An Israeli Jew dressed up as a soldier in order to gain easier access to his targets is a terrorist.
Shooting up a bus filled with Israeli Arabs in Shafram, murdering 4 innocent people, is an act of terror.
Perpetrating the act in the name of sabotaging the Gaza redeployment is terror.

Jewish/Israeli terror is rare, but it exists.
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by a Jewish terrorist.
Baruch Goldstein murdered 29 Muslims in Hebron’s Tomb of the Patriarchs.
The Jews who tried to blow up the Temple Mount were planning an act of terror.
Now add AWOL Israeli soldier, Eden Natan-Zada, to the list.
His actions, random killing of innocents, and motivation, hoping to create a civil war and prevent the Gaza redeployment, fit the classic terrorist profile.

Prime Minister Sharon immediately called this horrific act terror. As he should. The Israeli press called it a "shooting" or "killings" an "incident" or "act." This is just wrong. I am disappointed in the collective Israeli media.

People in glass houses should not throw stones.



US Pressure for PA AMMO
By Micah Halpern

August 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States, in the person of Condi Rice, has given Israel orders to provide the Palestinian Authority with ammunition.

Rice is serious about this. She lost patience with Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz after he said that he would have to analyze the request and maybe even present it to the Cabinet. Reports say that she lost it and sniped, "just do it."

Well, Israel is not about to "just do it." They have said "no" to the request.

Historically, the last time Israel gave guns to the Palestinians was during the Rabin-Peres tenure. Arafat turned those guns against Israel.

What did Prime Minister Sharon say last time a similar request was put to him:
First, they have more than enough weapons and ammo in storage.
Second, if they need more, confiscate the illegal weapons from Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Finally, this is too dangerous given how irresponsible the PA security forces are.

I ask, if this is so important, why is the US not giving the PA the ammo?



May I have the Missiles Back?
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday August 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Ukraine sold 12 medium range missiles to Iran.
Israel is requesting that The Ukraine recall the missiles.

The sale went through under the previous Ukrainian government.
The sale was conducted by arms dealers.
The missiles are KH 55 and depending on the weight of the warhead, they have a range of 2,000 - 3,000 kilometers.

The Ukraine says the sale was illegal, they say the warhead was dismantled before sale. That's not much solace. The Iranians know the mechanics of attaching a warhead. For Iran the hard part is obtaining missiles.

Will The Ukraine ask for them back? Maybe.
Will Iran return them? No way!
Why would they? These 12 missiles immensely advance Iran's technology.
New intel says that Iran will be ready to launch non-conventional weapons as soon as 2007-'08.

P.S. It was also discovered that the Ukraine sold 8 of the same missiles to China.



King Fahd
By Micah Halpern

Monday August 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

King Fahd of Saudi Arabia died this morning.
He ruled for 23 years, ascending to power in 1982.
The transition of power in Saudi Arabia will be smooth.
The Crown Prince has been the effective leader for at least the past 10 years.
Do not expect any major changes in Saudi policy.

The Saudis have mastered the balance:
They satisfy the demands of the West
They sell as much oil as is possible
They support religious extremist Wahabi Islam from the inside.

The House of Saud is about stability and continuity.
It is not about change and revolution.

How do they do it? First they preserve power, next they maximize oil revenues, then they teach Islam.
The Islam the Saudis teach in schools stimulates and creates a religious environment that endangers both their own existence and the West.

Why do they do it? It is who the Saudis are, it is what they are made of.
Part special balance, part self-destruction, part true belief in Islam.



Forbidding Liberal Islam?
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The most important Muslim legal council in Indonesia just ruled that liberal Islam is forbidden by Islamic law.

Again, liberal Islam is forbidden by Islamic law!

Indonesia is the most populated Muslim country in the world.
The Indonesia Ulema Council (MUI) is the most important Muslim body in Indonesia.
This fatwa, this religious ruling, will reverberate throughout the Muslim world.

At a time when the non-Muslim world is begging for liberal responses to radical Islam the Council reprimands liberal Muslim leaders and preachers in Indonesia declaring that "all of their teachings are deviant ... no one should adhere to their beliefs."

What is behind this ruling? Conservatives are concerned about secularism, about sexuality, about TV and about intermarriage. They worry about assimilation.

The only response to religion, liberal and conservative, is education.



PA Program
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are at it again. They have not yet learned the bylaws of negotiations let alone the art of negotiation.

Here is a classic example, Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qeira spoke out yesterday and he said:
"We are telling the entire world, today Gaza and tomorrow Jerusalem. Today Gaza and tomorrow an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital." He continued reiterating that the Palestinians would not declare a state until Jerusalem was their capital. He said that Israel had used its entire arsenal against them and that there was no weapon the Palestinians could not weather to achieve the goal of a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Does that sound like the voice of a peace partner?.
This Palestinian prime minister is reminding me more and more of the last Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, who called for millions of his brethren to march to Jerusalem.

Jerusalem is a hot button for Israel.
The Israelis have kept Jerusalem as one of their final points of negotiation.
They might be open to compromise on part of Jerusalem, but not on all of it!

The Palestinians had better get with the program.



Cameras Not Enough
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Everyone is talking about the ubiquitous closed circuit television cameras (CCTVs) in London.

Over 6000 cameras in the subways and on the busses.
Without the cameras there would be almost no headway into the terrorism investigations of 7-7 or 7-21.
Talk is of placing even more cameras throughout transit systems in the US.

Cameras have been a good tool, but only AFTER the fact.
Did the bombers care that they were being photographed? Not a whit!

Prevention should be the motto, not investigation after the fact.
Terror is not a typical crime that only needs investigating after the fact.
We need to stop the bombers before they do their work.

The best way to stop terror at the transit level is by "behavioral profiling."
Look around.
See how people respond to various questions.
Watch how they react in target environments.
Transit Security Personnel must be a presence that is seen and that is felt.
Trained security personnel must vigilantly, constantly, monitor the CCTV’s while the action is live.
Rewinding the videotape is just not good enough.




Jihadi Terrorists are Snobs
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The explosions in Egypt highlight some very important issues that must always be kept in mind when analyzing Jihadi terror.

Issue # 1: People that we consider to be friends of terrorists are not immune to terror.
Issue # 2: Governments that seem to have terror under control are deluding themselves and that includes Arab countries.
Issue # 3: We think that the West and the US and Israel are the main targets for terror, but there are many, many other targets out there, targets that are even easier to attack.

Egypt handled the October 7th terrorist bombings that rocked Taba very differently than they handled earlier terror attacks.
Egypt refrained from an all out assault, killing and shooting and massively arresting Al Qaeda cells in Sinai. Instead, they tried to soft shoe the attacks. Their payback? The terrorists returned and this time, hit them even harder.
Even Arab countries make mistakes and mishandle terror from within.

Terrorists will never be placated.
Terrorists are snobs, unless you are a full-fledged Jihadi member of their club, you are an outsider and all outsiders are fair game.



Why Attack Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Almost 90 dead in Egyptian Sinai terrorist bombings.
Definitely the work of an Egyptian al Qaeda group/cell.

Is there a connection to the London bombings?
Definitely.
All Islamic terror is loosely connected.
All Islamic terrorists have similar goals.
These terrorists share al Qaeda ideology.

But why target Egypt?
Because:
Egypt is seen as a friend of the West.
Egypt is forcing Palestinians into peace with Israel.
Egypt has cracked down on Islamisists.
Egypt is thought to be a non-religious Muslim government.
Egypt has sent diplomats to Iraq.

Egypt is seen as the leader of the Arab world and is perceived to be leaning in the direction of the West.
These terror attacks are threats against the prevailing Egyptian leadership.



Yes, The Terrorists Are Connected
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Of course yesterday's terror in London was connected to 7/7.

Not to think there was a connection demonstrates how certain leaders and commentators have little to no understanding of Jihadist objectives and of the al Qaeda organization.

The bombers of 7/21 may have not known the 7/7 bombers but, whether they knew them or not, the groups were loosely connected. Both groups had the same handler, of that I am convinced. The fact that the backpacks and explosives used by both groups were the same type absolutely confirms the connection. In fact, the 7/21 bombers probably felt inspired by their 7/7 comrades for the cause.

So why did yesterday's bombing effort not succeed?
Simply put, because the people chosen to carry out the mission knew nothing or very little about explosives. They probably damaged their own explosives after receiving them from the bomb maker.
As a rule, human bombs are not too high up the food chain in the terrorist command and planning hierarchy.
The fact that these terrorist bombers failed is actually more typical than atypical.

Thankfully, most terrorists are somewhat inept.
Suicide bombers only get one chance.



Orange & Blue
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Colors have become shorthand for slogans in today's society.
Pink for breast cancer awareness, yellow for soldiers away at war.
In Israel today, the colors are orange and blue.
Orange for those fighting against the Gaza redeployment, blue for those in favor.

While orange activists were showing support by trying to get into Gaza, blue activists covered 200 intersections across the rest of Israel explaining why it was so important to get out of Gaza.
The debate rages on and those making the most noise are not the majority.

On Tuesday the Knesset again supported the redeployment. After the vote Prime Minister Sharon said: "the Knesset and also the public support the disengagement plan ... The disengagement will be executed according to the timetable established."

Kudos to the legal, peaceful, protests on both sides of the issue. The debate is heated but the Knesset is doing its job, actively discussing and conscientiously voting on the issue.
Israel is a country of law, even if you disagree with the decisions. Nothing is ever black and white.



PA Harbors Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yuval Diskin is the head of Israel's Shin Bet.
The Shin Bet is the Israeli equivalent of the FBI, only more efficient and better clued in about the internal tensions of their country.

Unlike the FBI, Shin Bet operatives are very proficient in Arabic and well informed on Islamic issues.

At the beginning of the week Diskin was invited to address a Cabinet meeting attended by government ministers.

He reported that the murderers responsible for coordinating the terrorist bombing attack in Netanya that took the lives of five innocent people are being protected in a government compound in Tul Karam.
Tul Karam is a city within the Palestinian Authority and known to be a terrorist stronghold.

Sometimes intel is wrong.
But it is highly unlikely that Diskin would have briefed the Cabinet if the intelligence he had were not confirmed through multiple sources.

Why is the PA protecting these murderers? It is a very big mistake.
Either turn them over to Israel or try them in a real Palestinian court.
Harboring terrorists is tantamount to sponsoring and sanctioning terror.



Most Islamic Terror is Linked
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Islamic terror - worldwide - is intertwined.
We know that for a fact.

Precisely because of the connections, even loose connections, terror is even more dangerous today than it was five years ago, pre 9-11.

This is a case in point:
According to the Israeli daily newspaper Maariv and reported by Reuters News Agency one of the London bombers visited Israel in 2003.
Mohammed Sidique Khan came to Israel and met two other Muslim Brits of Pakistani origin.
The two others were responsible for the April 3rd bombing of Mike's Place a restaurant on the beachfront in Tel Aviv.
The explosion killed 3 Israelis.
One bomb was detonated, the second terrorist's bomb was a dud.
The terrorist escaped only to turn up the following week, drowned in the sea.

It is essential to understand that almost all suicide bombings with Islamic ties are linked. The more we investigate the more connections we find.




PA Act or Else
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 17,2005

I've Been Thinking:

Beware Palestinian Authority.
Beware Gaza.
You have 24 hours to clean up your act and deal with the terror of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
On the eve of the Gaza pullout there cannot be anarchy. There must be quiet. The PA must exercise control. Or else.

That was the message Prime Minister Sharon delivered today.
Saeb Erekat responded for the PA by saying that an escalation would be disastrous, that an Israeli incursion would "bring down the gates of hell."
Hamas said that an Israeli response of this kind would force them to "reconsider" the ceasefire with Israel.

Something is wrong with this picture.

Today, almost total lawlessness exists in Gaza.
There are terror attacks inside Israel.
Kassam missiles are launched by Hamas almost at will.
Was that a reasonable, responsible response?

This is Israel's response: Israel will launch a multi dimensional attack on Gaza terror cells. Israel has identified people, places, factories and storage facilities. Either the PA deals with their terrorists in the next 24 hours or Israel will launch an impressive defensive strike.

The clock is ticking.




It's Just Not Funny
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, party jokes just aren't funny
Sometimes, journalists do things that are just plain stupid.

In a video produced by journalists for the going away party of a colleague from Reuters who had covered Israel and the Palestinian Authority one of the most notorious Palestinian terrorists alive today made a cameo appearance.

The Palestinian terrorist was sitting behind the desk at the Reuters office in Jenin.

The punch line was: this is what the region will be like ten years from now.

The video was intended as a spoof.

It wasn't funny. It was stupid. It was in very poor taste.
The terrorist sitting behind the desk was Zakariah Zubeidi.

Zubeidi is the head of Fatah's al Aksa Martyr's Brigade in Jenin.
Zubeidi and his group are responsible for over 300 terror attacks.

Humor is important in a conflict. But so is good taste.
But maybe it wasn't such a spoof. Maybe, this is what Reuters looks like already.



Rocky Road in PA & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The situation in Israel, in Gaza, in the Palestinian Authority is getting jammed up.

There was a Palestinian Authority - Hamas shootout yesterday.
PA security surrounded a cell of Hamas in the act of shooting Kassam rockets straight into Israel.
The PA demanded that Hamas stop and turn over their weapons.
A huge firefight broke out.
Later in the day Hamas took to the streets and paraded through several Gaza cities to show their strength.

At the same time, in Israel, two former Chief Rabbis ruled that the military can not seal off Gaza from the rest of Israel.
They said that an Israeli may not separate another Israeli from any portion of Israel.
A day earlier Prime Minister Sharon warned rabbis not to incite violence.
The law in Israel is that any rabbi employed by the State must refrain from political public pronouncements.

Rough and rocky roads ahead, on both sides of the highway. Stay Alert.



Terrorists Don't Look Like Monsters
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the identities of the British suicide bombers are known, their families and friends are talking about them.

We now know that one of the bombers was a doting, dutiful son. One of them, married and the father of a 14 month old, was a mentor for special needs children and helped the kids integrate into British society.

Most people who had contact with the bombers are registering shock. "He was so nice." "I never would have believed."

Well, they should not be shocked and neither should we.
Rarely do terrorists look like monsters.
Rarely do they tip off their families that they are embarking on mass murder.

Terrorists do not see themselves as we see them in the aftermath of the attack.
Terrorists do not see their actions as monstrous or even as murderous.
Terrorists certainly do not see their deaths as suicide.
Terrorists see themselves as warriors and soldiers defending against the enemies of Allah.



Compare the Bombings
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Coordinated bombings in London, England. A blast in Netanya, Israel.
Dare we compare the two terrorist attacks?
Yes, we must.

Any time innocents are targeted for death by Muslim extremists we must search for both similar and dissimilar patterns. Compare and contrast. It makes us smarter, more competent to fight this uphill battle against terrorists.
The ultimate end goal of the terrorist remains the same - annihilation of the West, it remains to us, the West, their intended victims, to complicate their means, to put obstacles in the way of their modus operandi.

Both in London and in Netanya, the bombers were young males, they were suicide bombers.

In Netanya, the bomber digressed from his original plan. He felt threatened, felt the eyes of security personnel trained upon him and hit the switch while still a distance away from his intended target. He murdered innocents, but fewer than he would have had he been inside, not outside, a busy shopping area.

In London, the eyes of security cameras were open and watching, but the terrorists went about their business as planned. The bombers have all been captured on tape, and must have known that they would be, but none of the four aborted their missions because they were being observed.

In the pursuit against terrorists, technology is crucial, but it is not nearly as menacing as the human factor.
There is no way to convince the Islamic extremist bent on mass murder to mend his or her ways. But we can derail terrorists along the way. And we do that by keeping a significant presence, obvious and sharp.



PA Radio Glorifies London Bombs
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday July 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Religious leaders worldwide devoted much of their week-end sermons to the London bombing. Some spoke of tolerance. Some spoke of understanding. Others spoke of celebration.

If you were privy to listen to Sut al Kuds, Gaza radio, on Saturday, this is the sermon you would have heard:
The sounds of happiness were heard in London, and Osama Bin Laden came and redrew the map. He made sure that the voice of the surrendered will be heard in every place.

The hatred spewed forth during the sermon was all-inclusive.
The sermon called the Palestinian Authority some very ugly names.
It rejected Israel's redeployment because it did not include Jerusalem.

Who controls this radio station? The Palestinian Authority.
It claims to represent the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Barbaric, simply barbaric.
Worse, this radio station and this sermon are not unique in the worlds of Islamic Fundamentalism and Western hate mongers.



Get The Hooligans Out
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Settlement by settlement, community by community, it is happening.

The largest Hebrew daily in Israel, Yediot Ahronot, ran an exclusive saying that the residents of Ganei Tal, a hard core rejectionist settlement in Gaza, just voted to leave their homes when the redeployment takes place.
Peacefully.
The community has 65 families. 46 voted to go peacefully.
The vote was not unanimous, but it was certainly a majority.

Ganei Tal is a community just like other Gaza settlement communities. They will not be alone when it comes to leaving. I, personally, have received confirmation from Gaza leaders that, when the time comes, the residents will not fight.

So where are all those stories and photos depicting upheaval coming from?
From young kids, most of whom are not even residents of Gaza. The Gaza Jews do not want to leave their homes. They are good citizens who disagree with the government. But they will not fight Israeli soldiers and police. They, their children are also soldiers.

Certainly, there will be instances where the army will have to forcibly pick up and carry out angry, screaming, frustrated and even crying residents of Gaza.
And there will stories and photos.
But there will be very little violence - from within.
Young hooligans from outside might become violent - and they must be removed before it all happens



No Specific Credible Intelligence?
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Authorities are using expressions such as "no specific credible intelligence," and "no specific credible information" in the aftermath of yesterday's London bombing.

Well, semantically, those expressions are specific and accurate.
But they are misleading, very misleading. And that is important to realize.

The fact that there has been a serious threat to London, even to the London subway, train and bus systems was credible information known to authorities.
There has been knowledge that Al Qaeda wanted to hit London transportation systems for over a year.
What was missing was a specific date.

And until you have a date, it is correct, even while misleading, for the words "no specific credible intelligence," and "no specific credible information"to be used.
Call it, if you will, intel- safe speak.




Bombing in London
By Micah Halpern

Thursday July 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

No doubt. Today's coordinated London bombings are the work of Al Qaeda.
The attacks are textbook, straight out of the al Qaeda handbook.

A group has claimed responsibility on an Islamic web site.
The groups is called "The Secret Organization - Al Qaeda in Europe."
They are not alone.

There are numerous Al Qaeda groups spread through Europe. They plan, they wait, they attack at the proper moment, when all the pieces of their puzzle come together.
The very same groups exist in the United States, but are having a much more difficult time assembling the pieces of their plans.
We must assume they are here, take nothing for granted.

This is what you need for a successful attack: funds, organizers, explosive components, a location, a plan of operation, research, a dry run, trusted people who can pull it off (bombers, planners, mules), Plan B for an on location foul-up.

We are witnessing the future of terror - many, small, coordinated attacks.
We are powerless against it.
We only hope that we prevent the peices of the puzzle from falling into place.
We rarely know when we are successful.



Up A Notch in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday July 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Terrorists in Iraq are changing tactics.
The new targets are Muslim and Arab diplomats.

The reasons behind this change in tactics are clear.
The terrorists want to send a message to the Muslim and Arab world.
The message is that any aid to Iraq is really helping the United States, The Crusaders. The message is that Muslim countries as well as the Iraqi army are aiding the enemy and the enemy of Islam.

But the terrorists are wrong.
The Muslim and Arab countries are helping the Iraqi people

It takes daring to kill or kidnap a diplomat. It takes planning.
Detonating a bomb in a sitting car or sending a suicide bomber into a crowd is simpler and safer for the terrorist organizers.

So what's the real message, the message for us, the US, the West?
The message is that terrorists in Iraq are feeling the pressure. They know they are fighting an uphill battle and they need to up the stakes in order to convince the masses to help them oust the United States.

That is really why the terrorists have changed their targeting plan.



New Egypt-Israel Agreements
By Micah Halpern

Monday July 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Egypt are winding up a huge diplomatic negotiation.
The issue they are negotiating is this: Who will be responsible for the Egyptian border violations after Israel exists Gaza.

Sounds hilarious.
If Palestinian terrorists smuggle weapons across the Egyptian border into Israel, who do you think should be responsible?
The Egyptians. The terrorists. The Palestinians. Wouldn't you think?!

Here is the other dilemma:
The subject of this negotiation itself violates the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.
The peace treaty clearly states that NO Egyptian military may be on the border. ONLY police.
So having 750 military deployed on the border would be a serious mistake.
How do you get around this?
By calling it a "military protocol."
And by having this protocol signed an Egyptian and an Israeli military general not by politicians or diplomats.

Sounds ridiculous?
Welcome to my world: The Politics of Peace and Terror in the Middle East.



PA Bloody Resumes
By Micah Halpern

Sunday July 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

When most young adults look for work, they send out resumes.

On Saturday, in Gaza, 40 young men took their guns, stormed PA headquarters, occupied it for 4 hours and demanded security and police jobs.
The gunmen were members of Fatah.

True, last month Abbas agreed to employ people in the security forces in exchange for the promise to trade in their arms.
True, since then nothing has happened. No weapons have been collected and nobody has been offered employed.

There is growing anarchy and lawlessness in the Palestinian Authority.
And anarchy and lawlessness lead only to increased anarchy and lawlessness.

It all signals danger.
It is not a good sign.
Resumes should not be written in blood.



Arab Promises via Blair
By Micah Halpern

Saturday July 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today, British PM Tony Blair spent 90 minutes in a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, the defacto ruler of Saudi Arabia.

Blair was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia trying to garner Saudi support for the G-8 initiative to aid the Palestinians after Israel withdraws from Gaza.

Sounds funny, right? But there is an essential point here.

Why is a Western leader spending valuable time convincing Arab leaders to support the Palestinians?
Because if left to their own desires and devices, the Arab countries would offer little to almost no financial support to the Palestinian cause other than their traditional lip service and anti-Israel statements.

The US and Great Britain know exactly what will happen and are trying to organize Arab donor states in order to better support a productive Palestinian state.
I bet they will get the promises.
I doubt they will get the money.



Hostage Taker or Not
By Micah Halpern

Friday July 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

What a terribly stupid error.
Not to know whether or not the new President of Iran was a hostage taker, not to know who he was even before he won, while he was still a candidate.
It is like not knowing that Kurt Waldheim was responsible for the deportation of the Greek Jews from Salonika.

Not to have vetted Ahmadinejad and have the Intel out there and ready is a scandal.
It tells us, once again, how little time the US spends analyzing what is really happening in Iran.

This could never have happened in a European country or in any other Arab country. We know exactly who is who and which Saudi prince supported al Qaeda causes.
The US government has never really made it a priority to try to predict and understand the happenings in Iran. It is all bad.
The US government never invested in Intelligence gathering and analysis around Iran.
To this day there are still less than one hundred Persian speakers/analysts in the FBI. Getting more is not a priority, neither is their work given much value.

Benign neglect. That is what put the US is in this embarrassing situation.



Protests in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Protests in Israel will backfire. The participants are hoping to convince the public, that redeployment from Gaza is wrong.

Here's what they did yesterday: they spilled oil and nails along the highway at the entrance to Jerusalem.
Here's what happened: the tires of 20 cars were punctured, blowouts at high speeds on a very curvy road, cars slipping and swerving, traffic stopped.
And today: again, they are stopping traffic, creating traffic jams, disrupting normal life.

Is this any way to convince people of the importance of your cause?
It's a miracle that no one has been killed as a result of these protests.

Spilling oil and spikes along the highway is an act of terror.
Had it been perpetrated by Arabs, it would be considered sabotage and terror.

This form of protest will surely be counter-productive. People want debate. Civilized discussion. They do not want inconvenience.

My advise for effective protesting:
Raise the issues to the public, do not interfere with safety or convenience.
Do not insult the public or you protests will backfire.
Do not turn yourselves into hooligans and hoodlums.



Silly Statments by the PA
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 28, 2005

I've Been thinking:

In politics as in diplomacy, the words that one chooses to use are carefully weighed and of utmost importance.

That is why I am flabbergasted and disturbed by the statement made recently by the very articulate Palestinian Minister for Civil Affairs.
Mahmoud Dahlan, in speaking of the upcoming Israeli pullout from Gaza said: the Palestinians "will not assume responsibility" for clearing rubble after the Settler homes are destroyed.

Will not assume responsibility?
If not they, the Palestinians, than whom?
There is nobody left.

Does the Palestinian leadership intend to move the Palestinian people into bulldozed rubble strewn streets and further subject them to a life of despair - only so that they can continue and continue and continue to blame Israel?
I sincerely hope not.



Change is Never Good in Syria
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Change in Syria is never good.
What on the surface appear to be three isolated incidents of change, except that they are all happening in one short time period, have raised my antenna.

Change # 1: Syria has adopted a softer tone over the past week or two concerning their border with Iraq. Syria says they are sealing the border.

Change # 2: Syria continues to operate in Lebanon and that includes assassinations.

Change # 3: Syria seems to have accepted a harsh reality, they will not be able to easily negotiate a settlement and regain control of the Golan Heights from Israel.

What is happening in Syria?
A coup? Maybe.
Liberalization? Doubtful.
A shakeup? Especially in the upper levels of advisors, confidants and leadership, especially in the military? Probably.

Let's keep watch.



We Don't Understand Iran
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

So elections in Iran are over. Results are in.
Did we learn anything from the Iranian electoral process?
We learned how poorly the West understands the Muslim world.

Why? Because in real terms, the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over Rafsanjani represents no change in Iran in terms of Western attitudes.
Why do I say that? Because change, real change as the West perceives it, is not on the Iranian horizon at this stage.
No one here is speaking about the election in terms of the Iranian voters.
We are only seeing analysis of the election vis a vis the US and the West and nuclear issues. No doubt these played a part in the election but for the Iranian people there were other very important items at play.

Although corrupt the elections tell us something significant about what is happening in Iran.

Little change is taking place vis a vis the West.



US Lifts Boycott on Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is eating crow in the Middle East. Again.

Ever since the October 2003 terror attack in Gaza that took the lives of 3 US security guards assigned to the Tel Aviv Embassy, the US Diplomatic community has boycotted going into Gaza.

Two and a half years later and no one has been tried in the case.
The United States is upset, disappointed and, yet...
US diplomats are now going into Gaza.

I have been to Gaza.
Gaza is a flat plain.
Americans Diplomats travel in convoys that are very obvious, sparkling clean and usually 3 vehicles-long. They are sitting ducks for roadside bombs and for terrorist snipers. And yet...
US diplomats make no move change their habits.

If US teams must meet with people from Gaza, meet them on the border.
Sending US diplomats back into Gaza is a big mistake.




Shootout at the PA
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There is lots to frighten us in the Palestinian Authority.
Strange things have been happening these last few days.

Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qeria was shot at in Balata.
At the same time, a roadside bomb exploded 300 yards from his motorcade.

A wanted Palestinian man, Saad Amin, was detained in Jenin.
He was released only to come back to the police station and shoot a policeman in the head, killing him and wounding another. He is still at large.
Saad Amin is a member of the al Aqsa Brigades.

The PA just sealed a deal to incorporate 700 terrorist gunmen into the police.

Think about it.
The people who kill, murder, create anarchy will now be the protectors.
Who will control how they use their now legal weapons?
Can we expect a code of ethics from these people?
Who gives the job of preserving the peace to the same people who are destroying the peace?!



Iran's Nukes & Russia
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Iran.

Russia is all set to deliver a first shipment of nuclear fission fuel to the new/old nuclear reactor situated in Busheur, Iran.
The plant was originally built by Germany almost thirty years ago.
According to Asadollah Saboury, an official Iranian nuclear spokesman, the plant is 84% complete and will receive the material in a few months.
Iran has another 20 similar nuclear plants under construction.

I know it is hard to pressure Iran to stop their nuclear production.
But what about Russia?

More pressure must be brought upon Russia to stop this irresponsible selfish behavior. Much more pressure.
Russia just signed a nuclear trade agreement with Iran. They assert that the contract will protect the world from any danger that may arise from nukes in the hands of Iran.

This is just plain wrong. We must put a stop to it.



Why the Summit Failed
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Of course the Summit between Sharon and Abbas failed.

The Israeli and the Palestinian are not even on the same planet when it comes to objectives.
And the United States is totally disconnected from Israeli/Palestinian reality or they would never push for a Summit that would so obviously fail.

Israel is only interested in security.
So they want Abbas to crack down on terror.
Palestinians are only interested in raising their image on the street and keeping their power.
So they want Israel to release more prisoners, lift road blocks and turn over control of more cities.
The United States is only interested in getting Israel out of Gaza.
So they think compromise will happen because it is what they want.

Advance planning is what makes a successful Summit.
Wishful thinking doesn't make it in this world.

If the US wants Gaza to happen they must put the parties together and broker a deal and enforce the agreement.

I suggest doing that now.



Condi: Teach Democracy
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice. Again. Speaking at the American University in Cairo the secretary of state gave insight into the Bush Administration's Mideast policy.

"For 60 years, my country, The United States, pursued stability at the expense of Democracy in this region, here in the Middle East, and we achieved neither. Now we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspiration of all people."

Admirable. But I sit in fear.
Propping up weak people, elected in a game or a cheap election, does not preserve democracy.
Democracy should be introduced through education, it is learned behavior.
Respect and responsibility must be taught, not merely talked about.
The transition towards democracy take years, not seconds.

Voting is fun, especially for a novice.
Along with ballot casting comes other important democratic objectives. Accountability, security, let us not lose sight of their importance.



Condi: They Dream To Die
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice is exposing the Bush Administration's blind spots.

Listen to what she said yesterday in Ramallah:
"I imagine that it's not the dream of Palestinian mothers to see their children become suicide bombers."

To be polite, I'll call the statement projection, naivete, wishful thinking.
But the Secretary of State should know better.

Seeing your child become a suicide bomber may not be the dream of Condi Rice, but I see no evidence that Palestinian mothers share her sentiment.
The evidence I see proves that almost all Palestinian mothers actually do dream that their children achieve the status of "shahid," martyr, suicide bomber.

I have yet to hear a Palestinian mother speak out about how ridiculous it is to kill ones self and innocent Israelis.
I have never heard a Palestinian mother cry out about the unnecessary waste of life.
I have, many times over, seen Palestinian mothers proudly display photos of their children.

Condi, Palestinians and Israelis are relying on you and the Bush Administration to help resolve their problems.
But how can you resolve problems if you don't even see them?

Don't Ask Condi.



Al Qaeda's New Video
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The new video of Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, Osama's # 2, is very telling.
Unfortunately, his message has been missed or dismissed by most of the West.
That's more than a shame. This video is a blueprint of future al Qaeda plans.

Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri spoke of 4 essential objectives:
# 1: To remove corrupt non-Muslim leaders in Arab lands.
Specifically, he identified Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
# 2: To remove Crusader Forces from Arab lands.
Those are Christians, primarily the United States. That means Iraq. He refers to countries run by the US Embassies there. That means Jordan.
# 3: Not to be seduced by the ideas of democracy or by government reform.
Change happens only through violent Jihad, peaceful protests achieve nothing.
# 4: To convince Hamas to change their current policy and break the ceasefire with Israel. Israel must be defeated.

Pay attention. Al Qaeda hates Muslims more than we think.
Al Qaeda hates the US more than Israel.
Al Qaeda believes that the only true response is violence.



Terrorists in Detroit
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Is the United States up to snuff when it comes to fighting terror?

Anti-terrorist operations have vastly improved since 9-11 in terms of seeking out, finding and arresting terrorists.
After that, when it comes to punishment, the United States falls far short and fails abysmally on the follow through.

Here's an example.
This week, in Detroit, a terrorist named Mahmoud Kourani was found guilty of raising money for Hezbullah. He pleaded guilty. How did Kourani even enter the United States? He paid $3000 to a Mexican Embassy official in Beirut for a visa to Mexico and then snuck in.
What punishment did Kourani, a man convicted of raising money for a known terrorist organization, receive? A sentence of 4.5 years.

No one needs to be reminded that Hezbullah is directly responsible for the murder of hundreds of Americans in Beirut over the years.

Federal authorities have made other arrests in Detroit. Eleven Arab men caught in a cigarette smuggling operation taking truckloads of contraband from the South to Michigan. Their profits went to finance Hezbullah operations.

The men await trial and conviction. I await their sentencing.



EU Now Talking to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

What were they thinking?
The European Union has just informed the Bush White House and the US State Department that the venerable EU is sanctioning discussions with Hamas.

There are a couple of caveats.
The discussions are to be limited and low level.
The EU discussants must be under the level of ambassador, they are the people usually involved in working meetings, not backdoor diplomacy.
The Hamas members they dialogue with can be from any Hamas level.

So much for turning up the pressure and isolating terrorists.
This is a major change for an organization that declared Hamas to be a terror group as recently as 2002.

If the EU thinks that talking to Hamas will better the Palestinian political situation, they've got it wrong. It will strengthen the terrorists against established PA politicians. By rewarding these terrorists, by acknowledging them, Abbas will be further weakened in the eyes of his public and Hamas will be bolstered.

The result will be increased local violence.
The European Union will be responsible.



No Confidence- No Problem
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Was Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon publicly humiliated by the three No Confidence votes that passed the Knesset today?
No, not really.
Is Sharon's position in jeopardy?
Again, not really.

Well, why not?
Because it really means nothing in practical terms.
Because 61 of the 120 members of Knesset must vote No Confidence in order to fell the government. These votes averaged about 36-35.

Was there any significance to the votes?
There was.
The extreme right and the extreme left and the Arab parties voted together. That's very significant. National Union, a party so far right that it has even suggested urging the Arabs to leave Israel by giving them economic incentives, joined forces with Arab parties who have, in turn, attempted to change the National Anthem as well as change the Jewish nature of the state.

Politics certainly made for strange bedfellows in the Knesset today.



Disarm or Commit Internicide
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

How can the Palestinian Authority justify their stance on not disarming terrorists?

Nasser al Qidwa the PA foreign minister put it this way: "Under international law, the Palestinian people have the right to resist this occupation and defend themselves."
Well, that certainly explains it.

What about following guidelines set out in the now infamous "Road Map"?
The Road Map says that the PA must not only disarm terrorists, but also "undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest" terrorists.

This is a clear recipe for "internicide" i.e. internal suicide.
Unless the PA disarms the many renegade gangs of thugs roaming their streets and advancing the cause of terror, they will never be able to insure that Palestinian citizens live in safety - not safety from Israel, but from within.

Prime Minister Abbas has already earned a reputation as a weakling.
Not disarming terrorists reinforces his wimpy image on the all-important street.



Syria is Fighting Terror
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Syria is cracking down on terrorism.

On Saturday SANA, the official Syrian News Agency, described how Syrian security teams killed and arrested 3 terrorists in their hideout in suburban Damascus.

Is it possible that the leaders in Damascus have seen the light?
Of course not!

The Syrians targeted a group of Islamic terrorists who were bent on ATTACKING SYRIA.
The group was aligned with Bin Laden.

Some of the confiscated materials spoke of Jihad, beginning with the "despotic regimes" - that means Syria.

Other material spoke about the Christian Maronite regime, that means Lebanon, and next is Jordan, Saudi Arabia.

Syria, like most countries in the world, operates under a double standard.

Terror is accepted, even desirable and beneficial elsewhere, but never ever at home.



Release Terrorists - Then We Talk
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Four Islamic Jihad terrorists have been released from a Palestinian prison in Jericho.

The terrorists were in prison since February in connection with a suicide bombing that month in Tel Aviv's Stage Cafe.
Five people were murdered in the attack.

This is not a replay of Arafat's Revolving Door Policy.
That would be so simple.

This is BLACKMAIL.

Islamic Jihad is attaching conditions before cooperating with Palestinian leadership. Islamic Jihad says maintain that if Abbas is interested in a ceasefire or a meeting, he must free Jihad terrorists. A review board of the PA Interior Ministry evaluated these cases and ruled that the terrorists be let go.

A revolving door policy can be stopped.

Once you succumb to blackmail, there is no turning back.



Gaza Support Slipping
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Support within Israel for the Gaza redeployment is slipping.

A few months ago, polls had 65% of Israelis in favor of redeployment.
This week the numbers hover at about 50% - anywhere from 48%-54%.
Dissenters are at between 33%-38%.

Is this a trend?

Until now, the argument for or against Gaza redeployment within Israel has been restricted to the grass roots level. The public, political debate is only now surfacing. Former military and security chiefs, not only politicians, are starting to let their voices be heard. For many people, this is the first period when their eyes are being opened to both sides of the issue. The prime minister has yet to argue his case before the people.

What's next?
Things will heat up.
Anti-redeployment activities will increase.
Will protest organizers overplay their hand? Will blocking traffic call attention to the cause and help --- or will it irritate, aggravate and turn people away?

Keep reading those polls.



FBI Hype- Not a Terror Cell
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The FBI arrested 4 Muslim terrorists, Al Qaeda suspects, in the little town of Lodi, CA

Do not be surprised.
Muslim terrorists circa 2005 are likely to be found in small towns.
There they can live there with ease.
The 9-11 terrorists spent time in small towns.
Terrorists ARE certainly "out there."
Most of them do not have an organized plan.

Do not be confused.
The men the FBI arrested are not al Qaeda OPERATIVES.
They are al Qaeda AFFILIATES.
They supported the terrorist cause but were not part of any plot.
The father lied about his son that's why he was arrested
2 preachers/Imams were arrested on visa violations.
The 22 year old son was trained in Pakistan at an al Qaeda camp, that comes close to being a terrorist, but it's not the same.

The FBI is looking for good press.
The FBI is looking to pat themselves on the back.
I am sorry to say ---- This is FBI hype.



Abbas and Compliance
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

What is the biggest problem in inner-Palestinian politics?
Compliance.
Why is it a problem?
Because Palestinian leadership has little power to wield or incentives to offer in order to enforce compliance in their campaign against the use of illegal weapons.

That's why Mahmoud Abbas has just called Khaled Meshal, the political head of Hamas headquartered in Syria. The call came in advance of Abbas' scheduled trip to Gaza.

Abbas plans to demand that Meshal clamp down on Hamas in Gaza, to have them stop firing the Kassam rockets that are hitting Sderot and Gaza settlements.

How should Abbas insure that his demand is enforced?
Through his police force.
The police must disarm the Hamas operatives and then use monetary incentives to keep them from picking up arms again.

It's not the best solution to the problem, but for now, it's the only solution.



Israelis Ask Abbas for Asylum
By Micah Halpern

Monday June 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Is it that they have totally lost touch with reality?
Or are they desperate enough to do anything to gain media attention?

How else do you explain what would in other societies be called a suicide pact?
A group from 3 of the 4 settlements in the northern West Bank slated to be evacuated simultaneously with the Gaza withdrawal have signed on to an initiative and sent it to Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas.

They want to stay in their homes.
They are asking for political asylum under the Palestinians.
They are saying: "If the State of Israel does not want us then we do not want it either." We will live under "Palestinian jurisdiction and not under Israeli rule."
They are saying: "We are not afraid, and we expect it will be good and secure for us" under Palestinian rule. After all, "There are Jews all over the world."

I have recently visited these places.
These communities are regularly attacked by their Palestinian neighbors.

I fear the ramifications. I hope this is merely a misconceived media ploy.
No one can realistically entertain this action as an alternative lifestyle move.




Palestinian Gunmen Take Over Offices -- Again
By Micah Halpern

Sunday June 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It happened again.
Armed Palestinians raided a local government headquarters.
This time it was in Nablus.

About 15 men, all wanted by Israel, demanded jobs and protection. They also wanted to retain their own weapons. The gunmen scattered as police arrived.

No arrests. Not even any attempts at arrest despite the fact that an employee of the office was hit. The gunmen claim it was an accident, they were only shooting into the air.

In an interview given by Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas to al Arabiyah News on Saturday, the PM said that he does not plan on disarming these militias. He said he wants to incorporate them into the mainstream security system.

In a democracy, only 3 groups of people are allowed to carry weapons:
the police, the army, those licensed by the State.
In the Wild West it is a different story.




Must Pressure Syria -- EU Rewards Them
By Micah Halpern

Saturday June 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

What is wrong with the EU?
The European Union is pushing ahead and rewarding Syria when what Syria really needs right now is to have more pressure brought upon them.

The United States is asking the EU to suspend the Association Agreement with Syria which allows for expanded trade in exchange for progress on issues of democracy and human rights.
The EU thinks that because Syria redeployed from Lebanon and evacuated troops, it is enough of a gesture to start normalizing relations.

Wrong. Silly. Foolish. Ignorant.

Syria is not totally out of Lebanon.
Syria has not sealed their border with Iraq.
Syria houses and sponsors numerous anti-Israel and anti-American terror groups.

The EU just does not get it. Keep the pressure on Syria. Do not let up!



Watch Syria
By Micah Halpern

Friday June 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I spend a lot of time watching Syria. So, while I find much of what happens in Syria disturbing, I don't find it surprising.

Like test launching 3 SCUD missiles.
The 2 of the SCUD missiles that Syria is tested have a range of 700 kilometers.
These SCUD missiles have the capability of being armed with chemical and/or biological warheads.
The SCUD missiles could easily hit Israeli cities and that worries both Israel and the United States.

Like today's visit by Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia to Damascus.
Qureia is in Damascus updating Assad of Syria on the Bush/Abbas discussions of last week.

There is much to watch here.
Syria is stepping up its recalcitrance against the US and Israel by testing the SCUD's.
Syria is stepping up its role in inner-Palestinian politics. They intend to run interference with Palestinian terrorists groups headquartered in Damascus.

Surprises are not what you want.
Keep your eye on Syria.




Another Assassination in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Another popular public personality was assassinated in Beirut today.

Samir Kassir was a columnist for the newspaper An Nahar.
He was staunchly anti-Syrian.

It was a cookie cutter assassination.
A bomb was linked to the ignition of his Alfa Romeo. It detonated as he started the car outside his home in the Christian neighborhood Ashrafiyeh.

There have been 5 similar bombings in Christian areas of Beirut since March.
3 people have been killed, 50 wounded.

You need not be a Law & Order aficionado to put the pieces together.
Kassir was undoubtedly assassinated by the Syrians or by a Syrian backed and trained group.

The Syrians have the most to gain by his death.
The Syrians had the most to lose had he continued writing his columns.



Iraq Finally Says Thanks
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday June 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It came as a surprise.
Jalal Talibani, the newly elected president of Iraq, just asked the UN Security Council to keep American forces and their allies in Iraq beyond the end of the year deadline.

Talibani asked that the presence of American troops be linked to Iraq's need, not contingent on any specified date.

More important than the actual request was Talibani's public admission that US forces are essential to getting his newly-configured country up and functioning.
This is exactly what everyone has been asking for.
Iraqi locals showing appreciation for US efforts assisting them in their struggle toward democracy and freedom.

I honestly never thought we would see this day.
About that, I am glad to say, I was wrong.
But I was also right.
Few people will know about Talibani's request.
There has been almost no coverage of this humongous and newsworthy act.



1 Step Forward 1 Back
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

One step forward and at least one step back.

The Palestinian Authority announced the suspension of the execution of 24 Palestinians.
Their crime? The 24 were convicted of spying for Israel.
It is mind boggling when you think about it. These people were spying on the country they are negotiating with in order to sign a peace treaty.
At least now, they won't be executed. That's a big step.

On the other hand, an aide to Yassir Abed Rabbo, one of the architects of a naive peace initiative between Palestinians and Israelis called the Geneva Plan, was executed.
Samir al Rantisi, who worked on the Geneva Plan alongside Abed Rabbo was assassinated in cold blood outside his home. He was probably killed by Islamic extremists who reject peace.

Why al Rantisi, why not Abed Rabbo? Abed Rabbo is too well protected. They attacked the weakest link. Sad. And a big step back for the Palestinians.



Little Steps Forward
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The 6 Arab countries that compose the Gulf Cooperation Council just concluded their meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The Council came to some very interesting and important decisions.
Interesting because the West can learn what these countries are thinking.
Important because the West must translate what was said into what was meant.

They said: that they call on Arab countries to fight terror
They mean: that terror does not include Palestinians killing Israelis

They said: that they are in favor of continued Iraqi democratization
They mean: that this does not mean they want democracy in their own countries

They said: they call for renewed peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis to establish a Palestinian State
They mean: they want total withdrawal to pre '67 borders

This is still a big step forward for the 6 Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council.




It's Simple - Fight Terror
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Road Map is a pretty simple document.
The preamble states that terror must stop in order for the parties to move ahead.

According to both the Palestinian and Israeli press, President Bush promised PA leader Abu Mazen that the US would pressure Israeli prime minister Sharon on the settlements in the West Bank --- IF --- the PA clamps down on terror.
IF the PA meets its security commitments under the road map ---- THEN --- the US will pressure Israel.

I am a little disappointed in President Bush.
What's with the IF word?
What is this idea of placing pressure on Israel to entice Abbas to start fighting terror?
Why does Abbas need to be enticed to fulfill his part of The Roadmap?
Everyone concerned has already signed on to The Roadmap.

It really is simple. There is no need for game playing, not even word games.
Expect the Palestinian Authority to fight terror.
Demand it.



Abbas & Bush: Disingenuous Obfuscation
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 27, 2005

I've Been Thinkng:

That press conference at the White House yesterday with Abbas and Bush was, well, funny.

I have watched President George W. Bush mispronounce "contiguous" about 20 times over the years.

I wonder if he knows how to pronounce disingenuous?
What about Abbas, think he can pronounce disingenuous?
They both sure know how to act it.

That's really what made the press conference funny. The public display of mutual respect and affection, when truly, neither leader believes nor trusts the other.

Bush needs to give Abbas support because Abbas has mouthed the words of democracy.
Abbas needs to be a friend to Bush in order to receive the money and support the PA is so dependent on.

We witnessed a display of disingenuous obfuscation.
Now go pronounce that.



Palestinian Housing in Gaza
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 26,2005

I've Been Thinking:

PA Minister of Housing and Public Works Mohamad Shtayyeh just announced that if Israel does not demolish the houses of the settlers in Gaza - the Palestinian Authority will.
What!!!

Why???
The Palestinians claim the reason to destroy the houses of the Israeli settlers is to make space for the high-rise apartment buildings they will build in their place. They will destroy the houses in order to make better use of the space in the very densely populated Gaza Strip.

True. Gaza is very densely populated. But that's because most of it is just desolate sand, the very same sand the Israeli settlements were built on.

I have always wondered why the PA has never built housing in Gaza. The only new Palestinian housing I have seen is for the elite and political and business leaders. There is no housing for the poor who still live in dusty, sandy refugee camps.

It seems the Palestinians are better at destroying than at building.



Think Like A Terrorist
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

We are thinking like a Veritable Victim when we should be thinking like a Murdering Monster.

Here's the problem:
The word is out that Zarqawi may be injured, or may be healthy, certainly on the loose.
How does the Defense Department react?
By saying that the rumor was perpetrated "so that we will loosen our guard."

Hello.
This isn't about us, the US, the West.
It's about them, the terrorists waiting and planning to perpetrate attacks.

Thinking like a victim will not lead us to the terrorists.
It will not help us understand the terrorists.

Thinking like a terrorist is the only way to get the terrorists.



US & UK Talk to Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas made an announcement today. They have been in contact with and talking to US and UK authorities.

This might come as a surprise. Hamas is a terrorist organization and the US and UK do not negotiate with terrorists organizations. Or at least that is the common perception.

The truth is that both the US and the UK are quietly trying to get Hamas to move into politics and at the same time, to put down their weapons.
Hamas should "pick up the pen and lay down the the rifle."
The only way to achieve this double goal is through low level negotiations.

Low level negotiations often provide high stake returns.
Good Luck!



Iraqi & Israeli Ministers Meet
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today, Iraq's Foreign Minister met with Israel's Minister of Infrastructure.
They met in Jordan.
Secretly.

This is a huge step.
Iraq and Israel. Diplomatic relations. Dialogue. Protected by Jordan, a country that has a peace treaty with Israel.
This is the New Middle East.

Something's wrong with this picture, isn't it?
They met "secretly." Neither I nor you should know about this meet.
But now we both know. How? Why?
Because it was leaked by the Israeli Minister of Infrastructure.
The leak might nip the entire process well before it has a chance to develop.

This has happened before. This minister is notorious for leaking. So much so that he got a tongue lashing from Condi Rice, then national security advisor, who could not understand why everything they discussed in secret was promptly delivered to the Israeli press within minutes of their meeting.

This minister is after glory. He loves his own PR.
And that is exactly why I am not printing his name.



Watch Syria
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Things are heating up in Syria.

President Bashar Asaad's uncle Rifaat is returning to Syria after years of exile.

Rifaat, 68, is the brother of Hafez. He was exiled in 1984 as the result of a failed coup against his brother. Rifaat returned in 1992 after the death of their mother and was permitted, by Hafez, to remain in Syria. But in 2000, when Bashar took over his father's presidential position Rifaat returned to exile.

What has Rifaat been up to? He has been running an alternative Syrian Arabic News Agency out of Europe, called ANN. He has a following and a voice.

No one knows what will happen now.
What we do know is that the return of Rifaat is a major challenge to the rule and power of Bashar Assad.
There is no democracy in Syria so Rifaat's very presence is a threat. It is a message for reforms and change.
Will Rifaat's voice be heard? I doubt it. But the future of Rifaat will send a message to the people of Syria. Will he be assassinated? Exiled? Even allowed in the front gate?

Keep your eye on Syria.



Saddam in his Underwear
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

US diplomats are among the many people up in arms that the British popular daily, The Sun published pictures of Saddam Hussein in his white underwear briefs.

The fear is that a picture of this sort may seem disrespectful and humiliating to the Butcher of Baghdad and by extension to Muslims world over.
I assume these savvy diplomats are remembering the backlash over the now famous photo of Saddam's capture coming out of the spider hole or the photo of his beard being shaved or his mouth wide open as a US doctor examined him.

We should be clear.
The reason the Muslim world is upset is because Saddam was captured by the Americans.
Muslims have problems fully understanding that a non-Muslim country like the United States is so strong.

There is no doubt that publishing a picture of anyone in underwear is disrespectful. But these same people would think that the picture of Saddam washing his own socks is also disrespectful.

Personally, I was impressed that Saddam looked so fit and trim.
In other parts of the world, however, a thin leader is the very symbol of weakness.



PA Protocols of Zion
By Micah Halpern


Thursday May 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Finally. The Palestinian Authority has begun taking steps towards accomplishing one of the easiest of all points in the Roadmap. Working to end incitement.

Yesterday, after great pressure from the Anti Defamation League The Protocols of the Elders of Zion was removed from the official PA website.

Taking something off the web site is as simple as snapping your fingers. An email. A phone call. A quick click. At most, a few seconds.

Why has it taken so long?
Because the PA is not interested in stopping incitement.
Why am I so happy?
Because it shows how easy it really would be, if they cared about it, for the PA to cease stimulating incitement.

I am not naive.
I am the first to acknowledge that it will take years, even generations, to undo the inducement to incite.
Once it is off official sites, out of the schools, turned taboo, no longer mainstream, then, maybe there is a chance.




Piling on Newsweek
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I call it piling on.

That is what is happening in this Newsweek fiasco.
Everyone who has any gripe with the media is just piling on.
It is simply in poor taste.

Most people in politics, and that includes the White House and Secretary of State, have a love/hate relationship with the press. Now they have the opportunity to lash out.

It is wrong and it is sad. More importantly, it shows a lack of knowledge of the real situation in the Muslim world by people who are trusted to know and understand. Newsweek made a mistake, now that mistake has been transformed into an excuse.

There are almost daily riots in the Muslim world precipitated by correct, completely factual reports and stories.
Anyone who follows the Muslim world can list a slew of violent protests brought on by anything from fashion fads to sexuality to perceptions of the US president as a modern day Christian Crusader.
This story was by no means the cause of unrest or of worsening attitudes toward the US.

No excuse is needed to riot against the US.



Newsweek Hype
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday May 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The most important lesson to be learned from the Newsweek scandal is not in journalism, it is in international relations.

Certainly, Newsweek was irresponsible for publishing a line attributed to a source that was untrue.
But we must understand that the loss of innocent lives and placing US troops in danger was more than merely an unfortunate byproduct of this misinformation.

The central issue in this whole tempest is the popular attitude of Muslim countries toward the United States.
The Newsweek story was an excuse, a tool to stir anti-US emotions and draw people to massive demonstrations on the street.

Radio news, newspapers and sermons in mosques regularly harangue locals to take to the streets and teach the godless Americans a lesson about respect.
The people on the streets of Afghanistan had never heard of Newsweek.
Blaming this latest bout of anti-US expression on the magazine was a lucky break for a previously orchestrated pattern of behavior, a pretext, a sham.

These few words were just an easy way to stoke the flames of anti-American feelings. Feelings that already existed.



Iran's Nukes & Russia
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 15 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's rapid nuclear development is a reality that is deeply troubling.
Even more troubling is Russia's support of Iran's nuclear development.

There is no doubt why Iran wants to develop their weapons.
But why does Russia want to help Iran achieve this great plateau?
Because Russia is deliberately sending mixed messages.

The Russian attitude, their support and contribution to the Iranian nuclear program - despite all international pressure brought upon them - is indicative of Russia's attitude toward world diplomacy.

The Russians are cooperating in the battle against terror, but only as it concerns Russia and Chechnya and impacts upon other internal Russian issues.
On the global level, like arming the single greatest sponsor of terror in the world, Russia ignores international pressure and persists in assisting Iran to become an even greater threat to the world.

We are witness to classic Russian diplomacy.
Continued relationships with both sides as if the other does not even exist.
In the end, it will all blow up in Russia's face.



PA Mercenaries in Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday May 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi police recently arrested 4 Palestinians responsible for deadly attacks in Baghdad.

This should not surprise anyone.

Given the experience, the motivation and the targets in Iraq, Palestinian terrorists would be the perfect mercenaries. They easily make their way through Jordan and into Iraq.

These terrorists are more than mercenaries. Yes, the Palestinians certainly are paid to carry out their dastardly deeds, but they don't murder for the money. They do it because of the goal they so admire. They are ousting the West from the Middle East.

These Palestinian terrorists in Iraq are certainly Sunni Islamic extremists.
They are committed to murdering everyone who collaborates with the US. Targets in Iraq satisfy multiple dimensions of their wacky raison d'etre.



PA Not Satisfied with Pullout
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Mohamoud Dahlan told a business leaders lunch the other day that Israel's pullout of all Israeli residents from the West Bank will not be the end of the occupation in the West Bank.
Mohamoud Dahlan now serves as the Palestinian liaison for the redeployment.
Mohamoud Dhalan is a respected voice in the Palestinian and Arab world.

In order for the occupation to be ended, according to Dahlan, Israel must also:
Allow PA control over entrance and exits at border crossings
Allow for sea access
Allow for a State of Palestine international airport
Create a road connecting the airport to the West Bank that does not go through Israel.

Dahlan backed up his comment saying that Prime Minister Abbas never believed that an Israeli pullout from the West Bank was the end of the Gaza occupation either.

These are ridiculous addendums. Israel will be out. The Palestinians need to always blame someone else and deflect responsibility.



Lucky People
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's National Insurance Institute with the Hebrew University has come out with a study about incidents of terror.

Call it strange coincidence, call it freaky, here are some of their results:
113 Israelis have experienced 2 terror attacks in the past 5 years.
17 of the attacks these people experienced were within a 2 month period.
70 of the attacks were within a 2 year period.

There are nearly 7 million citizens of Israel.
113 of them have been multiple terror victims.
Wow.

Is the glass half empty or is it half full?
Either these people have very bad luck, or very good luck for having twice survived incidents of terror.
Perhaps, these are people who regularly frequent places that are targets for the terrorists.
Perhaps ... they live in a dangerous place.



PA Mourns Israel's Creation
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has announced that on Sunday May 15 they will mourn Israel's creation with the wailing of a nationwide siren and a minute of silence.

The idea is not unique.
Israel has just such memorials for the Holocaust and for those who fell in Israel's wars.

So what is my beef?

The Palestinians call Israel's creation Nakba, catastrophe.
The PA is showing it cards and real intentions.
The creation of the State of Israel in 1948 is their catastrophe.
Palestinian culture, society, politics and diplomacy has been consumed by Israel's very existence since 1948.

There is no real answer to the conflict short of the destruction of Israel.



Shame, Shame, Shame
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This has been a horrific few days in Iraq.
We don't even know how many victims of terror there were.
We can't even get an accurate tally of the victims, the dead and the injured.

That's not good.
It's not good that there has been needless loss of life.
It's worse that these victims are faceless, nameless, numberless.
And why? Probably because they are all local Iraqis.

We have become so inured to the kind of terror that explodes almost daily in Iraq that unless it touches us directly, as Westerners and as Americans, we can pretend it did not happen.

Shame on us.
The loss of human life should never be diminished.



Exceutioners-Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Rami Malach was just brutally executed by fellow villagers. It happened in the Palestinian Arab village of Ilar, near Tul Karm in the West Bank.

The executioners were members of Islamic Jihad. Malach was described as the leader of a cell of collaborators.
The executioners say they are protecting themselves from the Israelis who are searching for them and executing them.
The executioners say that Israel is the terrorist, not them.

Here is the difference.
The Israelis are searching for terrorists who have murdered innocent people.
In this case, the Islamic Jihad of Ilar is the group responsible for the Stage Club terror attack in Tel Aviv that murdered 4 and wounded 50.

The Islamic Jihad is trying to protect themselves from Israel's surgical retaliation, not the other way around.

There is no parallel!



Israel's Qualitative Edge
By Micah Halpern

Friday May 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes I cannot figure out how the United States decides to give support and military assistance.

For example:
This week The United Arab Emirates received 80 F-16 "Block 60" fighter jets from the US. They paid $6.4 billion for the machinery. The deal dates back to the spring of 2000.
There was no US sponsored announcement of the delivery, but it was covered in the local UAE paper.

The "Block 60" is an entirely new generation of fighter plane.
The "Block 60" is far superior to the "Block 50" that Israel has.
The "Block 60" has superior computer and radar tracking systems.
The "Block 60" can track multiple targets.

This is the first time in history that Israel's military qualitative edge has been challenged by United States supplies.
Never before has any Arab state had military capability that was newer or superior to Israel's.

The US rationale was that the UAE argued that they needed to defend themselves from threats like those from Iraq's Saddam Hussein.
Abu Dhabi is safer today.

I hope the result of this new US policy will be a safe region.



Inept NY Bombers
By Micah Halpern

Thursday May 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There were 2 minor near simultaneous explosions outside the British Consulate in New York today.
Nothing to get excited about.

These were amateur bombs prepared by bombers.
The bombs were hardly bombs and the delivery was even less impressive. The bombers were inept and thankfully so. It is clear that these were not professional terrorists. Had they been trained in terror, or had they read the al Qaeda handbook they would have put together a more sophisticated explosive.

So why even bother writing about bombs that pose no serious threat?
Because there is an important lesson to be learned here.

The terrorists laid the bombs in the very space that was there to act as protection against bombs and explosive trucks.
The planter is the very place that bomb squads put bombs to limit the impact and danger of explosion.

This was not a serious threat nor was it a serious attack.
But it gives us good reason to rethink and re-evaluate the effectiveness of our most popular and elemental security precautions.



First Disarm Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday May 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas, the terrorist organization, wants to run in the Palestinian national election for parliament.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has no problem with that.
Abbas wants Hamas "inside" in order to try to co-opt them and force them into the mainstream political spectrum of Palestinian politics.
Abbas has announced the implementation of referenda to determine final status issues. He hopes the referendum will isolate the extremists and relieves Abbas of responsibility for these decisions.

Here is the problem.
Hamas has yet to renounce terror and violence.
Hamas refuses to give up their arms.

Both President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon have stated repeatedly that democracy cannot work hand in hand with armed militias.
Democracy and armed militias are diametric opposites.
How can the continued use of weapons and violence and terror be justified by not only Hamas but also by Abbas?

Hamas has yet to adopt the principle of coexistence and living side by side with Israelis.
Abbas has yet to figure out if he intends to take a stand against Hamas and, if so, how to physically disarm them.
This is a problem, a big problem.



The Real Story with Lebanon
By Micah Halpern

Monday May 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

How can I convince you that Syria has not yet pulled out of Lebanon, that Syria still has important objectives to achieve in Lebanon?

Yes, Syria has removed its army and dismantled its main intelligence headquarters in downtown Beirut.
But, Syrian intelligence has over the years insinuated itself into every dimension of the very infrastructure of Lebanon.

See if this is convincing enough: Most of Lebanon's military officers are paid supplementary salaries by Syria. Fact. Undeniable fact.

Here's more: Hizbullah is seen by the Lebanese as a Syrian militia.
There are actually discussions in the Syrian high command as to the structure of Hizbullah. Syria not only armed and trained Hizbullah, they still have operational input.
And get this: Syria does not trust Hizbullah, so the Syrians have a very well developed network of spies within the terrorist organization.

I couldn't make this stuff up.




Osama bin Laden Dead?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday May 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

An Arabic language website, one that claims to be a voice of Al Qaeda, has announced that Osama bin Laden is dead.

The announcement created a flurry of responses in the Arab press.
Most of the comments said no way, no way could bin Laden be dead.
They said that if it were true, there would have been an outpouring of sympathy and very public expressions of mourning acclaiming his great accomplishments.

Osam bin Laden is probably is not dead.

What bin Laden probably is doing, however, is examining the power of a campaign of disinformation. And that’s important.
Bin Laden needs to know how will it help or hurt his cause if he is presumed dead.
Bin Laden needs to know if his messages get to the right places and people and if it is possible to confuse the masses while keeping his trusted inner circle in the know.

If this truly was a disinformation campaign, then he learned a lot.
He learned that this time there was virtually no real reaction.
He learned that next time he will have to be much more convincing.

And certainly, there will be a next time.




Terror Numbers Up?
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This week the US State Department released terror figures worldwide for 2004.

Major terror attacks are up 30% in Iraq, 6% in Israel, and 4% in Afghanistan compared to the figures for 2003.

But really, the figures and these studies are misleading and silly.
They show just how little the people in charge know, and how cockeyedly bureaucrats look at numbers.

Using their logic, 2001 was a good year.
There were very few attacks.
But 3 of those attacks were on 9-11!

Numbers are not what is important.
One can get a much better understanding of the terror threat anecdotally.
Where and how severe was the attack? How bold was the target? How much planning was needed? How big an operation was needed? How many attacks were prevented?

Weigh each incident.
Devise a sliding severity scale.
Then analyze and compare.
Headway is slowly but truly being made in the battle against terror.
That needs to be part of the equation.



US Bias is Good
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A former leading member of the US peace team for the Middle East, Aaron Miller, just stated publicly that the United States has a bias in negotiating between Israel and the Palestinians.

He said that at Camp David, in the summer of 2000, the US acted "like a lawyer for Israel." He said the US advocated in defense of Israel over the Palestinians and did not act as an honest, impartial, mediator.

Here is a newsflash:
The US is biased toward Israel. Just ask the entire Arab world and Europe.

BUT and this is a big but, that bias should not prevent the US from being an active and positive Middle East mediator. What that bias does, is prevent undo pressure from being brought against Israel, as is often the case in the United Nations and throughout the European community.

The United States is the only World Power capable of pressuring both Israel and the Palestinians into an agreement and holding both their proverbial feet to the fire to achieve a realistic and just resolution.

In the end it is not about the mediator.
It's about the parties themselves.
And Mr. Miller, to you I say that in 2000, at Camp David, no matter what transpired, Yasser Arafat was not ready for an agreement.
And that's what counts.



Ineptitude Not Security
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday. 10:35 am.
A blip on the radar.
President George Bush is whisked into the White House air-raid bunker.
VP Dick Cheney is relocated to a secure site outside DC.

The blip on the radar? In the end it was actually a flock of birds or a cloud.

Something is definitely wrong here.
I know that you have to guard the life of the President at all costs.
But to run into the bunker for a flock of birds flying 30 miles south of DC?

The best and the brightest, the most sophisticated technology in the world, all to protect the most powerful leader in the free world.
Mistakes like this should not happen. The distinction between birds and clouds should be clear, the distinction between birds, clouds and planes should be even more clear.

What a snafu!
This is not a case of "better safe than sorry." It's pure and simple ineptitude.



Israel Can Hit Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will probably acquire 100 GBU-28 bombs from the United States.

GBU-28 stands for Guided Bomb Unit # 28.
It is better known as the "bunker blaster."
It was designed with the objective of destroying command centers and nuclear facilities buried deep underground.
It is a smart bomb that is launched off the American F-15.
This 27-foot, laser guided, smart bomb has an explosive of 5,000 pounds and cost about $30 million total.

The real purpose of Israel's acquisition of the GBU-28 is to seriously counter check the threat of nuclear development in Iran.

After Israel acquires the GBU-28's there is no doubt in my mind that Israel can and if necessary, will, attack Iran's nukes.
This will happen especially if Iran continues to threaten the region by completing its nuclear bomb production.

Obtaining the GBU-28 is the easy part. Once Israel gets the GBU-28 the difficult work begins. Israel must then locate Iran's top-secret underground nuclear bunkers.
My best intel says that Iran probably has several dozen of these sites around the country.



Lebanon Might Invite Syria Back
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Syria just pulled their last 300 soldiers out of Lebanon.
It's being called The End Of The Syrian Occupation Of Lebanon.

But do not get your hopes up.
The Lebanese may invite them back in.
That's right - invite them back in.
It's all a matter of politics.

More than half of Lebanon is pro-Syrian and actually welcomes Syrian involvement in their lives and politics.
It is very highly unlikely that a new Lebanese government will be formed without a pro-Syrian bent.
That means that once again, in the near future, there will be Syrian soldiers and Syrian intelligence personnel in Beirut.

The West, especially the US, has no idea of what is really happening in the Arab world. This is just one example.
The West wonders: How could Lebanon prefer Syria to freedom and to a better relationship with the US?
Well, they can.
My advise to the West is to wake up and smell the jasmine.



PA: A Banana Republic
By Micah Halpern

April 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It's outrageous. It's shocking. Things like this should not happen.

There was a prison break in the Palestinian Authority.
Two terrorists murderers escaped from prison.
They are nowhere to be found.

The escapees are Palestinian terrorists suspected of planning and training and activating the suicide bomb attack that blew up the Stage Night Club in Tel Aviv on January 25th. The attack murdered 5 people.

Their names are Shafiq Abdel Ghani and Ahmed Zaki of Islamic Jihad. They were being held in a prison in Tul Karam awaiting trial.

What is happening in the PA? How could this happen? How can the PA government be taken seriously? Does the Palestinian Authority hope that we will not notice that they just walked out of prison?

This is real life, not a movie set.
But I wonder, is this the Palestinian Authority, or is it a banana republic?



Gaza Is Not Israel
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Finally.
A senior rabbi in Israel made his opinion clear about the status of Gaza.

The Great Rabbi Kadouri, over 100 years old and recognized as a world famous Kabbalist and mystic, has said that Gaza is not part of holy Israel and, therefore, can be given to the Palestinians. NOT part of Israel.

This is enormously significant. Rabbi Kadouri speaks to a significant percentage of religious Israelis and an even higher percentage of non-religious Israelis.

The rabbi qualified his statements by saying it is never ideal to remove Jews from their homes. But again, he said, Gaza is NOT Biblical Israel.

There is a serious issue at stake.
Does the fact that Jews live in Gaza make it Israel? Does the fact that Gaza residents vote and pay Israeli taxes make it Israel? Does the fact that Israeli law is applied in Gaza make it Israel? And what about the fact that those Israelis who live in Gaza call themselves Israelis ... does that make it Israel?

Is the issue now resolved for all Israelis? No. Certainly not for ideologues.
But Rabbi Kadouri has taken a giant step towards resolution and, perhaps, offered peace of mind to many conflicted Israelis.



AIPAC Finally Makes A Move
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Lobby organizations are among the most powerful of forces in the free world.
In Washington D.C. there are 4 extremely powerful lobbies:
American Association of Retired Persons (AARP)
National Rifle Association (NRA)
The Teamsters Union
American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)

AIPAC has been under a cloud for the past few months.
Now, finally, they have decided to take action and clear their name.
AIPAC has fired two of their senior people for meeting with Larry Franklin of the Defense Department and for then passing on sensitive information to Israel.

A deal will be struck.
All three people involved in this action will plead guilty.
Franklin will plead guilty of transfer of sensitive material.
Steve Rosen and Keith Weissman will plead guilty of receiving classified material.

Now AIPAC must move on, resuscitating their name and reputation.
Public Action Committees can be disgraced just like any powerful person or organization.




This Pope Will Fight Islam
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This new Pope, Pope Benedict XVI, really understands Islam.

I have been catching up on his writings and speeches from the past few years. To put it succinctly --- Pope Benedict sees radical Islam as a serious threat to the world, especially as a threat to Catholicism.

Pope Benedict believes that there is an existential threat to the very existence of Christianity.
Pope Benedict perceives a systematic assault on Christians from the Muslim world.

Actually, in the year 2003 he articulated this thesis in a pseudo-official journal of the Church, La Civilta Cattolica. It was a serious divergence of opinion between the new Pope and his predecessor John Paul II.

Believe me, this is a good sign for the Church and especially for Europe.
Islam and Radical Islam are making a serious play for control that, if unchecked, will envelope Europe in the very near future.



The New Pope
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday April 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A new Pope has been chosen.
Pope Benedict XVI has a very mixed history, a varied and interesting past.

For instance, Josef Ratzinger
Was 6 years old in 1933 when Hitler rose to power
Joined the Hitler youth at 14, even before it was obligatory
Was drafted into the German Army at age 16
Was assigned to an anti-aircraft battery guarding the BMW plant that made
engines for German planes.
Was sent to Hungary to lay tank traps
In Hungary he witnessed Jews being sent to their deaths
In April 1944 he ran away from the German Army and then spent weeks in a prisoner of war camp

He is a strong conservative.
I hope he proves to be an effective leader and influential diplomat.
Salute!



China - US - Israel Arms Trade
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has just ousted Israel from working on advanced technology for the new F-35 fighter jet.
You might ask: WHY?

Why? Because the United States fears that China might get their hands on some of the sensitive material surrounding the F-35 and that, in turn, would alter the qualitative advantage that the US has over China.
How? The US is afraid that Israel will transfer military secrets to China.

China is the only true enemy of the United States. China is the only serious threat to the US. China is the only country that still seriously embraces vestiges of the cold war.
The United States has forced Israel to abandon arms trade with China on several occasions. The US has also forced the European Union to pull back on arms deals they have had with China.

Here's an interesting factoid: Most US aid packages, especially military and research oriented aid packages, contain a Chinese caveat.
Nothing may go to the Chinese.
The Chinese are the real enemy.
The US would rather have something leaked to Castro than to Communist China.

What's the Israel connection?
The United States knows that Israel is embarking on a big business deal with China - arms trade.

This is truly a case of seller beware.



Lebanon's Chance
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Things are moving along in Lebanon.

The Lebanese Parliament just appointed a new prime minister.

His name is Najib Mikati. He is a 49 year old, Harvard educated, multi-millionaire. He has extensive contacts and business dealings in Syria including a friendship with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Despite being pro-Syrian, Mikati was a compromise candidate.

I think the new prime minister just might have what it takes to succeed.
Here is an example:
When Lebanon's previous prime minister, Karami, attempted to form a government, Mikati boycotted the process. Instead he went to pray at the grave of assassinated leader Rafik Hariri.
It was an extremely important gesture that was not lost on the opposition.

Mikati knows that it is impossible to cut off all contact with Syria. The future Lebanese PM should also know that he must be a unifying force between those wanting to sever all contact with Syria and those who want continued interaction.

Najib Mikati has a difficult challenge ahead.
He is certainly giving it the old college try.



Postpone the Elections
By Micah Halpern

April 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Fatah wants to delay the next round of Palestinian Authority elections. As of now elections are scheduled for July.

Why the delay? Because Fatah, the official ruling PA party, reasons that they would suffer a serious defeat. They fear, correctly, that Hamas and other Islamic parties would take over.

Here is the dilemma:
The feeling on the street is that the priority of the current Palestinian leadership has not changed, that the priority remains personal gain and corruption.
Islamic parties, on the other hand, provide essential local services that the PA has never considered important. Soup kitchens. Day care. Medical clinics.

The Fatah/PA needs time to beat the negative reputation - it is the only way to win against the Islamists.
The Islamic parties have been hammering away at the corruption - past, present and future.

If the PA and Fatah do not clean up their act their biggest fear will be realized.
It won't be an assassin's bullet.
It won't be pressure from Israel and the US.
It will be losing an election and that means losing the entire the country.



Lebanon Needs Stability
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This week Lebanon's pro-Syrian Prime Minister Omar Karameh resigned.

This is bad news.
It's bad for Lebanon.
It's even worse news for stability.
Remember, there has not been a government in Lebanon since February, not since the assassination of Rafik Harari in a massive bombing in downtown Beirut.

Lebanon needs stability. Lebanon needs a government. Lebanon needs to free itself from Syria. Now, especially, there is little chance of that happening.

As of today there is a split in Lebanon.
The majority of Lebanese seem to want at least a close relationship with Syria, if not an official alliance.
Syria sees Lebanon as a province and would be happy to have that happen.

The vocal but growing minority in Lebanon want independence. They have so far succeeded in preventing a pro-Syrian government from forming. It is unlikely that they will be capable of forming their own government.

If Lebanon does not achieve stability quickly, these are two likely scenarios:
# 1: another civil war
# 2: Syria will invade and take charge.
Neither is good.

Lebanon is no stranger to internal conflict.



Turkey - Syria Nexus
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today's visit of Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to Syria is raising eyebrows in certain diplomatic circles.
The visit also has the United States up in arms because it publicly demonstrates that Turkey is not towing the line on isolating Syria.

Turkey understands what is going on. Turkey is doing what it must do.
Our leaders and diplomats, however, do not realize what is happening.
This visit could very well have positive repercussions.

Turkey, under its current Prime Minister Tayyip Erodgan, is Islamist oriented. In order to keep the government together, some very important and powerful Muslim forces must be wrestled with. This is the very government that refused to allow US airplanes to take off or fly over Turkish air space during the Iraqi War.

But this is what is most important:
Syria and Turkey share a problem - a large Kurdish population.
The Kurds want to carve their own independent state out of parts of Turkey and Syria and Iraq.
Such a move would be interpreted as an act of aggression against Turkey and Turkey will do almost anything to prevent it from happening.

So what is the positive side of a good relationship between Turkey and Syria?
Turkey combines a very strong Western orientation with longstanding democratic institutions and a strong tradition of Muslim values. As such, if allowed, Turkey can easily function as a liaison between Syria and the West. Turkey can be an excellent vehicle to get messages directly from the West into the ear of the Syrians.

A word to the wise: Do not underestimate the power of intermediaries as a method of exerting diplomatic pressure.



TAMING THE LION
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 12, 2005

Column:

Success or failure. Truth or dare. The future of the Palestinian Authority lies in the hands of one man, President Mahmoud Abbas.

The decisions that Abbas makes will shape the future, long term and short term, of the Palestinian people. The choices are his to make. The commitments are his to undertake.

Some decisions, like cracking down on terror, like taking control, are actually, physically difficult. But Abbas must tame the Palestinian Wild West or it will consume him. And if or when the first democratically elected president of the Palestinian Authority falls, anarchy will set in. And if anarchy enters, any chance of a decent life for the people of Palestine disappears. And when Abbas falls, any chance for rapprochement between the Palestinian Authority and Israel fails. If Abbas is consumed, Palestinian society will never flourish, it will become, instead, a Nicaragua or a Belfast.

How does one tame the lion?

Disarming the gangs of hooligans that roam through the cities and towns, imprisoning, cutting off funds, making it unlawful to incite, all those are obvious ways to recapture control. Physically difficult, but possible.

Convincing the masses of the importance of the mission, that's much, much, more difficult. And the reason it is more difficult is because re-education requires much more than a physical commitment, it requires an emotional commitment. And here, Abbas has failed miserably. Abbas has barely even attempted to re-educate the Palestinian people.

Education, or re-education, is central to the success of President Abbas. It is an essential tool for the implementation of a democratic, economically sound and productive future for his people. And yet, Abbas has not even begun to put in place the easiest of educational reforms. There are concrete actions that take no time to put in place and require no energy to implement. There are actions that take almost no money but which would have serious short and long term impact for the future of the Palestinian people.

All Abbas needs to do, as a first, simple, crucially important step is take one book off the school reading list. If Abbas is really committed to peace with the Israelis, if he is being truthful when he speaks of peace and progress in international diplomatic circles, he will push forward on the process of re-education now. He is already late, any later will be too late. But does he dare?

Israeli Minister Natan Sharansky has just sent an emergency letter to Israel's President Ariel Sharon and to United States President George Bush.

This is his issue:
The official 10th grade Palestinian school curriculum teaches The Protocols Of The Elders Of Zion. The edition used in the schools is published in Syria. The curriculum never mentions that the Protocols are a forgery of the Russian secret police created by the Czar in order to generate the notorious myth that the Jews control the world.

One must ask:
Why teach The Protocols if not to expose the work as a conspiracy theory of Antisemites? In any other context, what is the educational purpose behind teaching The Protocols Of The Elders Of Zion to impressionable 10th graders given today's social and political climate?

In order to perpetuate the myth. We all know the answer. The Protocols Of The Elders Of Zion has not been removed from the Palestinian school curriculum, the book has not been removed from school library shelves, only, ONLY, in order to perpetuate the myth!

The Palestinians continue to teach The Protocols because they are not yet committed to the reforms. And Mahmoud Abbas, as president, is the man responsible for re-educating or not re-educating his people, for implementing reforms or for letting them linger, ignored if not forgotten.

There's more. There are the maps.

In no official Palestinian Authority map is Israel identified. Not just school maps - any and all maps.

It is hard to imagine a civilized, long-term, interaction between peoples, between societies, between countries when the official maps of one of the partners still do not recognize the existence of the other.

Here's even more. Of the 160 schoolbooks the Palestinian Authority uses to teach from, not a single text refers to Israel as an independent state. Shocked? Not any more, I would think.

Yes, Palestinian President Abbas must break the backs of the terrorist thugs who might physically challenge his control over his society. But he must also transform an educational system, he must educate. Future Palestinian leaders should be groomed in schools, not in marauding packs.

One need not teach love, but neither should one perpetuate hatred.



Bush-Sharon Meet
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

About the Bush / Sharon Meeting.

Why GW needed the meet:
Bush needed a real honest update on the Gaza redeployment.
Bush needed a better understanding on the issue of "new" settlements outside of Jerusalem.

Why Arik needed the meet:
Sharon must state, in no uncertain terms that Gaza IS happening, despite the internal Israeli tension.
Sharon needs to give over that it is a very tense subject for Israelis, that it is very painful but that the majority of Israelis believe in it and in him.

Also, and very important:

Sharon needs to explain to Bush that PA president Abbas is teetering and about to fall.

Abbas must defeat the terrorists or they will destroy him.
Abbas must implement easy reforms, like the educational system. For example: the official 10th grade curriculum is still teaching the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, that the Jews control the world. There are no maps that include Israel. No mention of Israel as a sovereign state. 160 school books not a single map with Israel on it.

If Abbas falls the result is total anarchy.
A war of gangs.
Think Nicaragua. Think Belfast.
Thugs will rule the streets, there will be no chance of a rapprochement.

Israel wants to live side by side and will take down illegal settlements and will redeploy and is committed to peace and an end to bloodshed.

Bush needs to hear all this and react. Sharon needs to say all this. Straight from the horses mouths.



Incitement in Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern

Sunday April 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There has been much talk about Israeli incitement. Specifically, incitement as it relates to Jewish visits on Jerusalem's Temple Mount.

The popular presumption is that if or when Jews ascend the Temple Mount the result will be an explosion in the Muslim world.
The Muslim world claims that the visit of Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount is what caused this last Intifada.

I highly doubt the veracity of these presumptions and claims.
It is unlikely that the entire region will go into tumult spontaneously.
It is, however, likely to happen if the public is arranged, organized, to do so.

The threats themselves are very interesting.

Jordan's King Hussein suggested that by ascending the Temple Mount Jews will destabilize the entire region.
Head of Hamas in the region, Hassan Yossef, in an interview on Al Jazeera from the Temple Mount, stoked anti-Jewish flames throughout the Arab world.
Egypt's Sheik Muhamed Sayed Tantawi, the Sheik of al Azhar in Cairo, has shouted that Jews cannot ascend the Mount.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, said that 1.4 billion Muslims "should instruct (or clarify) to the Zionists."

At this junction it is probably not wise to have an organized Jewish ascent.
It will not cause World War III, but it probably will cause some local tension.
Honestly though, Muslim and Arab leaders should be calming their masses, not provoking them.
That is the true incitement.



Important Handshakes
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Handshakes are a powerful form of communication.
The importance of the handshake between Israeli President Katzav and Syrian President Assad, and the handshake between Israeli President Katzav and Iranian Prime Minister Khatami are not to be underestimated.

The handshakes were captures on camera at the funeral of Pope John Paul II.
The fact that the Iranian media, IRNA, denied that the handshake ever happened is irrelevant. We saw the pictures. As for Syria, official dialogue and negotiations with Israel over the Golan Heights have already taken place in Virginia.

The origin of the handshake is important here. In ancient Greece people would extend their right hand - their dagger hand - to demonstrate that one meant no harm to the other. The metaphor still holds.

The official funerals of world leaders are ideal venues for informally breaking down barriers. At international events, leaders can share and discuss potentially heated or explosive issues that they would not discuss in more formal settings.
Public exposure at public events makes it unlikely that anyone will "make a scene!"

But remember, this is the Middle East where just as the unofficial sometimes quietly becomes official, the official is sometimes silenced so as not to draw public attention.



Egypt's Terror
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Terror struck at the heart of Egypt yesterday. A motorcyclist threw a bomb in Egypt's historic bazaar. It landed near Cairo's famous and popular tourist attraction, the Khan al Khalili Souk. Four people were murdered and at least 20 wounded. Many of the victims were tourists.

Now let's see how Egypt handles the terror attack.
Egypt has extensive experience confronting extremist Muslims and terrorists. They will be quick to arrest and interrogate and discover who is ultimately responsible for this murderous act.
They will also make certain that those responsible will not perpetrate any further terror.

Tourism is Egypt's most important industry.
Tourism brings a large amount of foreign currency into the country.
Hitting the tourist market is a blow to Egypt's very existence.
Terror in this form is a direct attack against Egypt's economy.
Terror in Egypt is a strong statement against the country's Western leanings and non-Islamic government.

In the 1990's there was a rise in this type of terror in Egypt. In September of 1997, two men opened fire at a group of tourists in Cairo killing 10. Then again in November terrorists murdered 62 people in Luxor, the burial site of the Pharoah's. 58 of those killed were tourists.

Believe me. Egypt will respond with a strong hand.
Egypt understands the dangers of terror.



Quiet is Relative
By Micah Halpern

Thursday April 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Perspective often depends on knowing and understanding the relative value of numbers and things.

For instance: the last 3 months in Israel have been termed "relatively quiet."

According to the Israeli security services and army, relative quiet means:
January - 405 terror attacks, 54 wounded
February - 116 terror attacks, 60 wounded
March - 126 terror attacks, 11 wounded

The total for 3 months was 647 attacks and 125 wounded.
Most of February's numbers came from a single terror attack on February 25th in Tel Aviv.

What a warped world we live in when a reduction in the number of terror attacks is cause for gratitude. What a warped world we live in when it can be said that there were "only" 647 terror attacks and that "only" 125 people were wounded.

Given the issues of the Middle East - despite the absolute numbers and this freaky reality - this is a good sign.



Sacking Abu Ala
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It's a tough challenge figuring out what's really happening in the Palestinian Authority nowadays.

Yesterday, a story was leaked in the Emirates Daily saying that Abu Mazen was thinking about firing his prime minister and longtime friend, Abu Ala.
The two are at odds over the reforms and changes that must, must, must be made in the Palestinian government.

Abu Ala seems to be more Arafatesque in his perception, trying to stall and hold firm on the status quo.
Abu Mazen knows he needs to make the changes to stay in his job.
One major change this week is retiring 1000 senior police in order to clean house. Anyone over 60 is being retired.

Might Abu Mazen force Abu Ala out?
If he does, he would prove to everyone that he really is the boss.
But threatening Abu Ala's removal could achieve the same results.
If he does, it would make certain that the remnants of corrupt leadership know that their days too, are numbered.
By threatening or firing Abu Ala he regains his recently lost reputation on "the street."

Nowadays, Palestinian leadership is not simply about Israel.
Nowadays, Palestinian leadership is about monitoring and eliminating mafia-like behavior in a corrupt cleptocracy.
Nowadays, the most important issue for Palestinian leadership is that there be a consistent message about corruption and the need to clean house.



Iran and Her Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Monday April 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has recently permitted 30 journalists to visit the place that was their once top-secret nuclear site, the Natanz.

The Natanz is situated about 150 miles south of Teheran. From the accounts of local and foreign journalists who visited the plant, it is surrounded by 10 anti-air batteries and is heavily enfenced. Clearly, Natanz is set up as a top secret and well-protected facility.

The US and the EU have, early on, identified this facility. From the very onset of the conflict with Iran and Iran's continued march towards nuclear proliferation the Natanz plant has been a big agenda item.

The journalist were actually treated to the real plant - not some facade. Why?

Because the Iranians see it as a safe place to showcase.

The work done at the Natanz plant is enriching uranium. It requires centrifuges that quickly spin uranium transforming it into a gas.

What happens after that, however, is that the gas can then be used in a nuclear bomb.

The Iranians are now saying, you saw our facility, now leave us alone.

The problem is that Iran has many, many more facilities



Sham in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Saturday April 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the horrific terror attacks that shattered a vacation holiday on the Israeli border in the Sinai tourist resort of Taba this past October?

34 people were murdered, 12 of them Israelis.

The news is that Egypt has finally charged 3 people with the heinous acts.

Actually, only two of the three are in Egyptian custody. The third will be tried, but in absentia.

34 innocent people were murdered in that terror attack. All information, all intel says that the attack was planned with the assistance of Palestinians. Clearly, the attack required not only one, two, or three players, but multiple levels of planners. And yet, only two are in custody. What a sham!

Granted, two terrorists were killed in the explosion itself.

And two others, Palestinians, were killed in February in a police shootout.

But many more are still at largee.

What also really scares/perplexes/astounds/galls me is that the suspects have only been charged with murder and attempted murder and possessing automatic weapons. What happened to acts of terror?

Is there no law against terror? Is there no law against mass murder? How can we take this trial seriously?

This situation must be changed, in Egypt and internationally.

And it must be changed now.



PA Anarchy
By Micah Halpern

Friday April 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Anarchy now reigns in the Palestinian Authority.
Tawfik Tirawi resigned yesterday. This is cataclysmic!

Tirawi is the head of PA West Bank Intelligence. He quit because of anarchy and an inability to control the situation. He claims his underlings are not following through, he says that he receives no support from Abbas.
But Tirawi was one of Abbas' most trusted and closest advisors.

As part of the deal with Israel for regaining Palestinian control in certain cities - like Jericho and Tul Karum - the PA accepted the condition that they disarm and register those people that Israel called terrorists and Israel would refrain from "targeting" those individuals. This has yet to happen.

Is it possible that Abbas does not want to move ahead? Possible that he prefers this status of anarchy to an ordered and safe democratic society?
I think Abbas is afraid. I think he is scared to act. He must disarm the hooligans and the thugs, but disarming means shedding Palestinian blood.

When you become prime minister it comes with a price.
Abbas had to know full well that restructuring Palestinian society would cost the lives of some people. You can't do the job of prime minister and play chicken. If he does not succeed in squashing those thugs who are turning his Authority into anarchy, he will have a thug-run racket in every Palestinian city and he, the prime minister, will end up a corrupt politician paying the thugs "collection."

The going's on in the Palestinian Authority is beginning to remind of a child's tale -- the Emperor's New Clothes.



PA: The Wild West
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 31, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday the Palestinian Presidential Compound in Ramallah was attacked by Palestinians. They shot it up.

About 16 al Aksa Brigade members attacked the office of President Abbas.
They were making a point. It was an act of intimidation.
They wanted their old positions back and better conditions.
They thought themselves stronger than the president and his current security team.

Another incident:
A Palestinian roadblock was burned after Palestinian police stopped three Palestinian car thieves.
There was a shootout and a large mob began to attack the police.
The police ran.
The mob burned down the roadblock, burned tents that were set-up there.
The mob burned Palestinian flags.

Abbas ordered the arrest of the gunmen.
But he had already ordered that they be disarmed.

Now Abbas has to make a decision.
Either he acts against this hooliganism or he is consumed by it. Those same people who perpetrated terror against Israelis are now terrorizing him and his people.

It seems like the Wild West, mid-East style, to me.



Cool Heads Must Prevail
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Gaza redeployment will go through. Tempers are already beginning to rise.

There is a real threat that some residents and their supporters will turn to violent measures.
Effie Eitam, a settler leader and head of the National Religious Party secretly told the Minister of Internal Security that it might even be a good idea to disarm the settlers.
When word got out, settlers promised immediate violence if there was even an attempt to disarm them now.

The army's plan for redeployment involves using mature, older, experienced reservists rather than fresh 18 year-old recruits.
They hope that the military response will be mature and responsible given the tensions and pressures of the moment.
The plan is to have on hand 8000 police and 16000 troops.

There are ways of protesting that are illegal but still acceptable.
Blocking intersections is illegal but acceptable.
Defying an army order to evacuate by sitting with locked arms or chaining yourself to your home is illegal but acceptable.
Using a gun. Illegal. Unacceptable.

Settler leaders must control their constituency.
The army must keep things calm and make sure violence does not escalate.
Difficult as it will be, cool heads must prevail on all sides.



Why Sharon Won
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

So many people were certain that Ariel Sharon would fail.
Instead, he passed with flying colors.
He defeated the referendum he never wanted and passed the budget he needed.

People were so excited at the prospects of Sharon's failure, that in place of properly analyzing the playing field, they began to believe their own rhetoric.
But, no surprise to me, the Israeli prime minister won both the battles many had predicted would topple his government.

Voila! Sharon totally outclassed his opponents.

This is how he did it:

Sharon created multiple plans. And he was prepared, if need be in the end, to compromise on one or two of the issues within each plan. If things turned bad, he was immediately ready to approach the situation with an alternative plan.

Sharon decided that the budget and the referendum needed to go through, but he knew he could and would compromise on the referendum in order to pass the budget. He knew that in the end, he would win the popular vote if a referendum were taken.

Brilliant tactics and exceptional execution.
It would behoove others to take note. This is how one wins in politics.



Kook - Ghadaffi
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

In 1969 Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi took over power in Libya.
At the Arab League Summit he said that he was the longest ruling leader in the Arab world.

That may be true, but he also had lots of other things to say, things that people all over the Arab world are repeating.

He called for Syria to stay in Lebanon because it preserves the peace, "Better to have Syrian guns than the guns of other nations."

He called the UN Security Council a terrorist organization while Kofi Annan was in the room.

He called the Palestinians and the Israelis idiots while PA President Abbas was in the room.

He said Islamic extremism and terror was caused by Western arrogance and "oppression, injustice, arrogance, insults, contempt and the humiliation of this (Arab) nation."
He said "Listen to us."...."If you ignore us, you will lose in the end... If they want to combat terrorism, they should respect the Arab world."
Ghadaffi is definitely a kook.
But he is a kook who openly articulates what many in the Arab world only think.



Arab Summit Summary
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League has gathered.
They decided on the best way to approach the Israel issue.
They chose to adopt the Saudi Plan of 2002.
The essential issues to keep in mind concerning this Arab League Summit are:

First: only 13 of the 22 counties were even there (hardly a vote of confidence)

Second: of all the problems that the Arabs are confronting, strange that their major issue is the attitude toward Israel (serious problem of priorities)

Third: the Jordanian plan was rejected even before the summit began (the realistic plan was shot down before it even had a chance)

Fourth: Libya's plan calling for the creation of a single Palestinian/Israeli state called Israstine was rejected (phew, at least that)

Fifth: newspapers across the Arab world covered the Summit with a sense of frustration (the papers saw the Summit as far removed from their people that they called the Summit redundant and corrupt and one commentator called it a Summit with a serial number)

Sixth: Lebanese papers accused the Arab League attendees of being pro-Syria (that's a little topsy turvy)

Seventh: the official Saudi paper blamed Israel for sabotaging the summit. (no sense of real accountability, just a love to hate)

That's all on paper. Now we'll see what really happens.



Kurtzer: The Undiplomatic Diplomat
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Dan Kurtzer, the United States Ambassador to Israel, has once again inserted his foot in his mouth.

His announcement, in a closed door meeting last week, that there is no understanding between the US and Israel that large settlement blocks will remain in place in the final peace arrangement, is just the latest example of how very undiplomatic this chief diplomat really is.

Now he denies having said that.
But the report came from a transcript of the presentation.
He is dead wrong.

There is a letter from George Bush to Ariel Sharon clearly articulating that things are different today than they were in 1967, and that a total Jewish evacuation of the West Bank is not realistic.
Maybe Kurtzer was playing bad cop.
Maybe he was floating a balloon.
Any way you look at it, he was not being diplomatic.

Kurtzer also said that Israeli leaders and diplomats do not understand nuance.
Again, not very diplomatic.
But at least there, he got it right.



Egypt: Changes to Come
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Gamal Mubarak, son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, has announced that he will not run for election.

This is a very big step on Egypt's part.
It is a formal extension of Egypt's move towards new democratic reforms.
It means that the next leader of Egypt will not be the son of the current ruler.
The announcement shakes an axiom that was assumed obvious and inevitable for years, if not decades.

The reason for this decision is manifold.
But it is probably a combination of three important factors.

#1 pressure to reform, and hence, have serious as opposed to pre-determined elections
#2 Mubarak the son has no military experience and would probably not be able to convincingly lead a government that relies so strongly on army
#3 Mubarak the father does not want to let go of leadership, even and especially, to his son.

This decision will have a huge impact on Egypt. It may be the first step towards paving the way for other new and important democratic changes.



More Bombs in Beirut
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Since Rafik Hariri's assassination in Beirut on February 14, there have been 2 terrorist bombings in that once beautiful city.

One explosion took place this past Friday night in a cafe in downtown and wounded 11 people.
The second explosion occurred this morning in the mostly Christian area of Jounie just north of Beirut. 4 people were killed. The explosion took place at 1:30 AM local time in an entertainment area for clubs, discos and shopping.

The objective of this terror is to try to destabilize Lebanon and show how very important it is to keep Syria in place to maintain safety and peace.
The assumption is that the people of Lebanon will succumb to fear and rush to accept the Syrian and the Muslim extremists.
At the same time they are stimulating terror against Israel in order to deflect attention from Lebanon.

The Syrian sponsored agents/terrorists think in a way that only they can understand.
They threaten civil war.
They threaten a mass reign of terror.

It reminds me of mafia protection rackets - pay for protection against the very people that threaten you.



al Qaeda Attack in England
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Scottsman, a British newspaper, ran a very troubling story today. I pray that the English are prepared to handle the implications and fallout.

The paper reveals that Sir David Omand, co-director of counter terrorism in Great Britain, divulged that England has knowledge of an impending al Qaeda attack.

The objective of the attack is to cripple the infrastructure of England. Electricity and other power sources. The telecommunications grid. Banks. Transportation. From the briefing, it seems the terrorists want to focus on local governments.

The idea is to overwhelm computers with viruses and emails causing them to crash and shut down. And according to Sir Omand, the people involved in this plot "have a very high level of technical awareness."

Is this something new? Is British intelligence more sophisticated than other intelligence communities?
No. It's not new. But it does show a heightened sense of awareness and intel. And that is always good.
The US and Israel have been aware of these types of threats for a very long time.

Specifically, there are substantial fears that our microwave weapons, which can burn out all computers, might fall into the wrong hands and be used by terrorists against us.

For more info, I have a chapter on this in my book What You Need to Know About: Terror.



Is Hizbullah Kidding?
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes, leaders in the Middle East positions are so single minded and single purposed that their thinking moves them far, far from reality.

Case in point: Sheikh Nasrallah, leader of Hizbullah, and Al Manar TV, aka Hizbullah Television.

The Hizbullah leader announced on Saturday that the real reason Al Manar TV is being pulled off the satellite airwaves in Europe is that the station dares to defend Palestinians against Israelis. He said that anyone who defends the Palestinians will be attacked by the Zionists and by their friends.

Hello. Who does he think he's kidding? I read European papers, monitor the media, watch the press coverage. The European media, on the majority, is vehemently anti-Israel and just as vehemently pro-Palestinian.

But even the Europeans, despite their own publicly broadcast prejudices, recognize the difference between reality based coverage and the so called "news" and "culture" depicted on Al Manar.

Al Manar TV is being pulled because it advocates hate and violence.
And in the free world, hate and violence cannot be justified.
That, Mr. Nasrallah, is the reality.



US MIDEAST POLICY
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The United States, in the name of freedom and democracy, is planning to nudge the greater Middle East in the direction of freedom and democracy, Middle East style, of course.

There are some issues that worry me about this transformation.

I am convinced that a true majority of the masses really do want liberalization and democratization. But... there are two buts.

But # 1- The people now in charge, i.e. the powers-that-be in the oil states, and the dictators do not in any way want change nor are they willing to relinquish control, power and wealth.

But# 2- There is a large and very vocal religious minority in the region. That minority is very well organized and, most importantly, very violent. They see democracy as an American import. In their eyes democracy is anathema to Islam.

Does that mean that the United States should just butt out? No.
It means that the United States had better make certain that before introducing and influencing change, they have a very good plan. An in depth plan specific to each place recognizing the differences in locale.

It is not enough to just speak of freedom and democracy.
Direction. Support. Aid. Action will speak louder than words.



PA-Ceasefire: Trick or Treat
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The inter-Palestinian agreement to continue "the calm" between Palestinians and Israelis that was signed in Cairo the other day continues to bother me.

I am happy to see that the new PA government is beginning to display signs of leadership. It's important that they are actively involved in monitoring and engaging terror groups within the Palestinian population.

But the idea is to disarm the terrorists, not placate them.

Here is what begins to really worry me.
The Cairo agreement was composed of 6 principles.
Principle #3 states that the continued building by Israel of settlements and the fence would be a violation of the calm by Israel.
Well the fence is being built.
The fence saves lives.
The fence is essential to Israel's short-term security.
Principle #3 is the perfect - sanctioned - excuse for the terror groups to violate the calm, the ceasefire.

Abbas must disarm the terrorists. Abbas must make certain that there is only one law of the land and one security force.
To do otherwise is to make a political and security mistake.



Watch Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This ceasefire between the Israelis and the Palestinians is worth discussing.

The Palestinian parties got together in Cairo and decided to extend the temporary ceasefire with Israel to the end of 2005. The PA would have preferred a permanent ceasefire, but that was pie in the sky.

No way Hamas and Islamic Jihad would agree to a permanent ceasefire.
What did they agree to?
They agreed to desist from attacking, reserving the right to fight the Israeli "occupation".
What does that really mean?
It means that they can and will violate the agreement.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad gain a double portion here.

Point #1: They get the PA off their backs, and in exchange for joining the ceasefire they will be given a serious role in the government and will also be running in the upcoming legislative elections.

Point #2: The extremist terrorist groups now get credibility in the public eye and in official PA eyes, and they will use that to leach votes and popularity from the PA. They will campaign on a hard line platform to keep the PA from making bold and important concessions to the Israelis.

Everyone needs to keep their eyes on Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Everyone, especially the PA.




Hamas Watch w/ Care
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Things are changing quickly in the world of Hamas and, surprisingly, they seem to be rolling with the punches.

Hamas has now decided to run for Palestinian Legislative Council elections.
Hamas is considering extending the "Hudna," the ceasefire, the quiet, that Abbas has implemented with Israel.
Hamas may be forced, due to US pressure, to temporarily close their Syrian offices and find exile in Damascus.

These are big changes. But what do they all mean?
Running in Palestinian elections means that Hamas de facto recognizes the establishment of both the Palestinian Authority and Israel because it means that they are willing to become part of a government that negotiates with Israel.

Extending the Hudna means a ceasefire with Israel may become more permanent and more stable, something Hamas has always been loath to do.

Once expelled from Syria there are only a few places Hamas can go, in the past they went to Jordan and Iraq but both those options are closed to them right now so the most likely place for Hamas to end up would be Iran or on "Hizbullah Land" in Southern Lebanon.

Hamas. Watch Carefully.



Syria Imports Israeli Apples
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today 200 tons of Israeli apples from the Golan Heights crossed over into Syria. The apples were exported to Damascus under the supervision of the UN.

This was the first export from Israel to Syria since 1967. The 6 trucks loaded with fruit were just a start - 7,000 tons of apples are expected in Syria per month.

This is a very large development. I am certain that the more exchanges take place, the more likely relations will thaw. Relations will not become normalized any time soon, if ever, but in order to engage in imports and exports the involved parties must sit down and talk. And that is a big deal. This could only help Syria at this stage.

Right now, the Israeli-Syrian border is very quiet.
Right now, the Israeli-Syrian is an example of "good fences."

But there is always fear and caution on both sides of that border.
It is only 40 miles from the border to Damascus.
Geographically, at least, the distances are very short.



Palestinian Infighting
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

To think that all Palestinian factions come together as one big, happy family is to make a serious mistake.
There are fights and internal tensions. There is jockeying for power and for the media spotlight.
There might be an implosion within Palestinian society.

Look at what happened at Hebron University today.
Hebron University is a university not dissimilar to many Western institutions of higher learning, that is to say, a hotbed of political activism, particularly, extremist activism.

Hamas held a rally on campus today.
Fatah members starting shouting out their slogans.
The rally turned into a rumble.
At least 9 people, including a journalist who required 10 stitches in his head, were hospitalized.
The ironic part - Islamic Jihad, also in attendance at the rally, became the buffer between the other rival groups.

Why did this happen?
Because of Hamas' popularity among the younger generation.
Hamas, generally, does very well in Palestinian student elections.
Fatah knows that.
And Fatah feels their hold slipping in the generation gap so they act, and react, in order not to lose their grip on Palestinian society as a whole.

Today a rally turned into a rumble, tomorrow - who knows.



Iran Nukes: Not Complex
By Micah Halpern

Saturday March 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Western leaders do not understand Iran. If they would simply listen to what Iranian leaders are saying, it would not be difficult to ferret through the confusion.

Here is what the foreign ministry spokesman, Asefy, said today on Iranian State radio:
"Iran is determined to use peaceful nuclear technology and no pressure, incentive or threat can force Iran to give up its rights."

That sounds pretty clear to me.
The two methods the US and Europe have agreed upon in their effort to influence Iran, freeing up trade and diplomatic pressure, will not influence Iran.

So what can you we do to influence Iran?
Determine other, more likely to succeed, methods of influence.

Further isolation
Crank up Muslim pressure
Track down and monitor monies
Put pressure on the corporations and countries they do business with
Threaten military attack
Execute surgical operations and strikes crippling parts of the nuclear development campaign

Iran cannot be allowed to call the shots.
Iranian peaceful nuclear technology is an oxymoron.



A Very Short Distance
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I just received another report that most of the Syrian troops in Lebanon are out, and that the rest could probably leave within 12-24 hours.

Syria has relocated troops in the past. It's no big deal. They bring troops home and then back out again depending on the need. Right now, Syria needs to have troops pulled westward.

Moving troops in Lebanon is no big deal, either. The best intel I can glean says about 15,000 - 20,000 Syrian troops were in Lebanon. That does not take into account the troops just on the border, on the Lebanese side of the border. During the course of any given year those numbers can climb to 40,000, even more.

Relocating Syrian army personnel is child's play. The distance between borders is very, very small. To get from Beirut, which is on the Mediterranean coast in the east, to the Litani River is only about 30 miles and from there to the Syrian border is just another 10 miles. Think of it as an easy commute.

Americans, commentators and decision makers alike, cannot really understand the distances - or, more correct, lack of distance - we are talking about here. It is truly a stone's throw.

Believe me, Syria knows the distances very well.
And Syria knows exactly how long it will take to move right back into position. They have done it before.



Hizbullah: Nice to their Mothers
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Various commentators are speaking about Hizbullah's good side.

You can be a terrorist and still be nice to you mother.
The US does not understand this.
Neither does most of the Western world.
The Arab world understands.

Yes, Hizbullah is a terrorist organization. They are responsible for the murder of 320 Americans in Lebanon in 1983 alone.
Yes, Hizbullah operates hospitals, soup kitchens and schools. They provide day care for families and medical clinics.
Yes, Hizbullah has a fully trained and well armed militia.

These are some of the reasons that Hizbullah is so popular in Lebanon.
Another prime reason is their anti-US, anti-Israel, anti-Western approach to things.

Despite the humanitarian services they provide for their own people, Hizbullah is, without a doubt, a terrorist organization.

Terror is Hizbullah's method of attack.




Israel's Big Mouth
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Just because you are from the region does not mean you understand what is going on there.

I am referring to US frustration with Israel over Israel's constant haranguing of Syria to get completely out Lebanon.

We would call it "piling on" or "riding the wave."

In almost every public statement emanating from Israel by a major politician over these past few weeks the emphasis has been on Israel's desire for Syria to leave Lebanon. They have even made reference to Lebanese opposition groups that are courting Israel.

Here is the problem.

In order for this pressure to work it must be seen throughout the Arab world as being "in the best interest of the Arabs." Certainly, not as a US issue. Definitely, not as an Israeli issue.

If there is even a hint of any external influence, especially Israeli influence, the momentum will boomerang. That is what yesterday's rally, attended by 500,000 people in downtown Beirut, was all about. It was more an anti US/Israel protest than a pro Syria rally.

To make this happen, the parties involved must play it smart.



Syria in Lebanon-The Long Run
By Micah Halpern

Monday March 7, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Syria is in Lebanon for many reasons. A little international pressure will not easily push them out.

Remember: 20% of Syria's measly GNP is produced in Lebanon. That is an essential component of any decision they make.

Remember: Syria's hashish is grown in Lebanon's Bekka Valley and then sold around the world.

Remember: Syria has no embassy in Lebanon. Syria does not see Lebanon as an independent state. Syria views Lebanon as a province of greater Syria.

Remember: Syria has promised to leave Lebanon in the past. What they did instead was a temporary relocation of troops.

Remember: Troops will be removed in stages. The first stage is to move them out of Beirut.

Remember: Syria thinks Lebanon is theirs, to control and to benefit from.

Syria is very good at this game.



PA Executing Collaborators
By Micah Halpern

Sunday March 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

4 Palestinians are about to be executed. They have been sentenced and will be killed by firing squad, under orders of the new Palestinian government. 16 others await the same fate.

What was their crime?
Collaborating with Israel!

PA Prime Minister Abbas has the final word. He asked for advice from an Imam. The Muslim religious authority advised to follow through with the punishment. And indeed, that is what will happen.

What is wrong with this picture?
Well, just about everything.
But specifically, Palestinians will be executed for collaborating with Israel, the country their own government is right now in the process of negotiating with.
Isn't the ultimate goal of negotiating peace and coexistence?

Imprison them if you think they acted wrongly or compromised your national security. That is what the US did to Pollard. But do not execute.

Here's the true irony. Abbas is now advising his Justice Ministry to prosecute terrorists against Israel as "agents working for a foreign enemy" for "jeopardizing the national interests of the Palestinian people."

You cannot have it both ways.



Palestinian Wild West
By Micah Halpern

Friday March 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There was a shootout in Nablus between Palestinian gunmen and Palestinian police today. 6 were wounded.

At the beginning of the week new PA interior minister and security chief, Nassir Yousef, was in nearby Jenin on an official visit. While he was there Palestinian gunmen, under the leadership of Zakariyeh Zabeyda, shot up the street outside the municipal building. Yousef ordered the arrest of Zabeyda. There was a tense scuffle. It ended with no arrests and a sit down between the men.

Zabeyda was upset that Yousef came to "his" town without "his" permission. "Every city has a gate that one must go through" he said.

Think of it as the Wild West, Middle East style.
The situation with Zabeyda is just one example. Every town and every city in the PA has several armed gangs roaming the streets and terrorizing the people.

Commentators refer to this as "Abbas's tightrope".
I say, NO!
Abbas, through Interior Minister Yousef, must disarm these people.

It is not a difficult choice to make.
Control the gangs, you govern, you win.
Allow the gangs to rule, you will not be able to lead, you lose.
The end.



RICCO for Terror
By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Sheik Abu Bakar Bashir was just cleared, I repeat, cleared, of all but one charge in the 2003 Marriott Hotel bombing and the 2002 disco bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia.

The attacks murdered 214 innocent people. Mostly Westerners.
The sheik is the leader of Jemmah Islamiyah, the Southeast Asia branch of al Qaeda.

Indonesian prosecutors could not prove that the Sheik provided inspiration or even support for the attacks. They could not pull together a conspiracy charge despite his numerous sermons and myriad statements to that effect.

What a perfect example of the pitiful state of counter terror activity around the world.
Almost everywhere that terrorist are brought to justice, the cases against them are weak and often lost.
Germany, Italy, France, the US and even Israel.
Some European states have decided to deport terrorists to Morocco and Turkey where conviction is more certain.

Laws must be changed. The bar must be lowered. Prosecutors must be permitted to prove conspiracy. Our lives depend on it.

We need a RICCO-style act for terror.




Bin Landin & Zarkawi
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday March 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Bin Laden and Zarkawi are in cahoots!
Of course they want to strike at the US.
That's reality.

Bin Laden and Zarkawi are in communication for several reasons.

#1: To show their followers around the world that they are still in charge, that the US cannot stop them.

#2: To begin to force the US and intelligence agencies around the world to question what they are doing, whether they can stop an attack or ever catch them.

#3: To send a message of fear to the citizens of the US. Americans are again asking whether and when they will be targets of al Qaeda.

These are all objectives of Osama and Zarkawi.
If they cannot attack us in reality, they will strike with ideas, rumors, fears.



Be Smart
By Micah Halpern

Monday February 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Mixed messages are being sent out from the Palestinian Authority.
I find that very troubling.

In diplomatic and not-so-diplomatic exchanges revolving around Friday night's terror bombing, Israel and the US have pressured Palestinian leaders to catching the group that planned the attack and to prevent others attacks from happening.

Abbas, the president, condemned the terror in no uncertain terms.

But listen to what Abu Ala, the Palestinian prime minister, said yesterday:
"If Israel wants to halt contacts with the Palestinians, it is free to do so,"
"That's their affair. What do they expect from us in a case like this - that we shed tears?"

What a telling outburst.
The diplomatic answer would have been along the lines of "we shed tears for all the innocents people murdered in Tel Aviv" which was the cookie cutter response so often made by Arafat after attacks, followed by his "innocent Palestinians" disclaimer.

Cry? Of course not! But be sensitive, diplomatic and smart!



Bush Diplomacy is Working
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Liberalization in Egypt!

And all because George Bush and Condi Rise cranked up their diplomatic pressure on Egypt.

Egypt just agreed to amend its constitution and allow for possible opposition in their upcoming elections.
If this is true, if it does happens, it will be a huge development and it could have a very significant impact on the entire Middle East.

The administration has been hitting hard at "The Great Nation of Egypt" at almost every opportunity, in almost every foreign policy speech, at home and abroad and even in the State of the Union Address.

The pressure got even greater when Rice chose to drop Egypt from her next Mid East trip. Publicly, the administration described the change in itinerary as a response to democratic backward slipping, tying it to the arrest in Egypt of a leader of the political opposition.

Exerting this type of pressure was brilliant.
This is masterful diplomacy.
Putting Egypt on the itinerary and then dropping her because of non-democratic activity sends out a real solid message to the entire region.

Well done.



Abbas sink or Swim Fighting Terror
By Micah Halpern

February 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The mass murder terror bombing at a club on the Tel Aviv Beach last night tests the commitment of those who support the most recent efforts towards peace between Palestinians and Israel.

Obviously, the person most critically tested by this attack is the Palestinian president, Abbas.

The United States, Israel and, not incidentally, most of the world including the Arab world, want to see if Abbas can actually find the people responsible for the attack and then, at least arrest them.
Thus far he has arrested to 2 people.

Islamic Jihad from Damascus has claimed responsibility.
But remember, Hezbullah sponsors the Islamic Jihad.
Israel believes that the Islamic Jihad is responsible.
Intelligence reports state that Hezbullah has been recruiting for bombers.

The 21year old bomber was a member of Islamic Jihad. He was a student. In his pre-murder video he explained that he was acting in order to attack the Palestinian Authority for cooperating with the US and acting in their interests.

If Abbas cannot succeed now, the peace process will be seriously threatened.
If Abbas cannot control the terror now, his leadership, itself, blow up.
The world is watching.




Everyone is Shutting Tunnels
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 25, 2005


I've Been Thinking:

This week, Palestinians discovered and then shut down 12 more underground tunnels used to scuttle arms from Egypt to Gaza.

Last week 4 Palestinian police were caught in another arms tunnel, one of them died when the tunnel collapsed.
Egyptians are also beginning to stop the construction of terrorist tunnels for the purpose of smuggling arms into Gaza.

Enforcing the clampdown in both directions makes it all that more effectual.
These are all small, important steps forward aimed at reducing terrorism.

As significant as these are to the West, they are also in the interests of the involved countries.
Egypt wants to show the US that she can command and take charge. Palestinians want to show the US and Israel that they are capable of leadership and keeping the peace.

Good will gestures, even if borne out of self-interest, should not be minimized.



Bombs Can Slip Thru
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 24, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's police tested their hospital security today.

They hid 4 dummy bombs in ambulances and sent them into the hospitals.
3 got right through. 1 was discovered. What a failure!

The warnings are out there blasting as loud as ambulance sirens.
** Ambulances and hospitals have already been placed high up on the target lists of terrorists.
** Terrorists have already successfully used ambulances to carry bombs across checkpoints.
** There have been numerous alerts that terrorists were trying to steal ambulances to use as vehicles to conceal and transport bombs, even to blow them up.

Other than the obvious -- that security is severely, perilously, lax and lacking -- several essential lessons must be drawn from this test.
Hospitals, schools, places of religious assembly, public spaces, they must all be treated alike.
Drills and practices must continue in all public and pedestrian areas.
Terror will never be completely eradicated but practice and vigilance are the only way to improve security.

Even in Israel, a country in a state of heightened of alert things slip through.
Imagine what is happening in the US.




Expel Extremists
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Holland just expelled 3 Muslim clerics for incitement and endangering the country.

Muslim preachers, Imams, set a significant tone for the Muslim community. We must not forget the limitations of freedom of speech -too often, their tone is negative.

The rest of Europe, and yes, even the great United States should take notice.

The British, the French, the Belgians are being deluged by Muslim extremists. Local Imams are preaching the end, the total destruction of the West.

Laws need to be changed and dangerous preachers should be deported.

Another country, Germany, has plenty of laws against incitement and racial hatred. And yet, they have regularly failed to convict terrorists. Instead of convicting, they have started deporting terrorists and inciters of terror and those people who are part of a terror gang. Most often they deport to Turkey, because there it is easier to try and convict Muslim extremists.

The US must start looking and more importantly, listening, to what is being said in local schools and mosques.
Dangerous messages must be stopped.



A String of Palestinian Cities
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday President Bush clearly expressed his expectation that the future Palestinian State not be a "string of territories."

The concept is called "territorial contiguity." It means that all land should be connected in order for it to be a viable state and government.

Let's take a look. Hawaii, Japan, The Philippines, Fiji, and the list goes on. Almost none of the Pacific Island countries have territorial contiguity, they are separated by vast distances and spaces. And yet, they govern.

The point is this:
A state is run by the people and by the leaders who serve in government.
Land mass, size, shape, and location are not determining factors of statehood.
Liberty, freedom, equality, those are the essentials needed for governance - by the people and for the people - in order to establish and maintain viable statehood in today's world.

The people must be connected, not the territory.




Extremists in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Gaza pullout won an overwhelming majority in Israel's cabinet vote today.

The 17-5 vote in an essential cabinet decision further anchors Ariel Sharon's position and encourages the prime minister to continue with his withdrawal plan.

That being said, as withdrawal plans turn into reality, internal Israeli tensions - Jew against Jew -will continue to rise.
These tensions will continue until 1 of 2 things happen: the pullout is complete, or until real violence breaks out.

Israel's internal security services, the Shin Bet, equivalent to the FBI, are trying to identify extremists and then anticipate their moves. It is no easy feat.

The extremists are a small and very organized groups.
Vocal extremists are not necessarily the truly dangerous people.
A 40 person protest disrupting traffic at the entrance to Jerusalem is significant and may be illegal but may not involve any of the dangerous people.

The really dangerous people are observing carefully. They are planning something that they think will disrupt the Gaza plan. They are planning something big, an attack against the Sharon and his government. They are setting the stage by demonizing Sharon as the enemy, or worse - calling him a traitor or a nazi.

That is the trail the security services must follow.



Putin Get Real
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 19, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Vladimir Putin is convinced that the Iranians are not constructing a nuclear reactor for weapons. The Russians think that the Iranians are interested in investing in alternative energy sources.

The Russians are actually helping the Iranians construct their main reactor in Busheur.

Putin said, "The spread of nuclear weapons on the planet does not aid security, it does not strengthen security. The latest steps from Iran confirm that Iran does not intend to produce nuclear weapons and we will continue to develop relations in all spheres, including the peaceful use of nuclear energy."

Is Putin living on this world? Nuclear Energy!!!!

Why is one of the most oil rich countries in the world interested in investing in alternative energy?
This is an essential question.
We need to know the answer.



In Iraq: Mass Murder in Context
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 18, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Four bombs went off in Iraq today including 2 in mosques and 1 on a religious procession, in total, killing close to 50 people.

Last year on this day exactly massive bombings in Iraq murdered over 181 Shiites. Why?

Ashura. Because of the holiday of Ashura.
Surprised?
No one knows about Ashura. And that is part of the problem.

Ashur means fast.
Ashura takes place on the 10th day of the Muslim month of Muharram.
Ashura commemorates the killing of Muhamed's grandson, Hussein, in 680 when he attempted to take over the caliph.

Holiday traditions include fasting and marching while self flagellating, that's right, whipping oneself. Believers also slit their foreheads and splash blood.

Not surprisingly the Sunnis also celebrate Ashura but from a very different angle. Sunnis celebrate the day Noah left the ark. For them it is the day of atonement (Yom Kippur) on which ancient Arabs fasted, long before the creation of the month long fast of Ramadan.

Without going out on a proverbial limb --- Next year, regardless of what happens between now and then there will be another set of explosions on Ashura.

It's all about the context of the conflict.
And that is that part that our leaders and their advisers just do not get.



The British Lost Plutonium
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 17, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

We are worried enough about lost nukes from Soviet weapons.

And then the UK comes along and admits that in 2004 there was a numerical mistake and that 30k (66 lbs) of plutonium is unaccounted for.
In 2003, the same annual study showed that 19k (41 lbs) went accounted.

Both of these accounting disturbances at the Sellafield Nuclear Plant were reported as part of the annual study. The British say that this is just an accounting flaw. That it is to be expected. That no actual materials left the facility.
The problem is there is no way of knowing that. We only know that there should have been 30 more kilos of plutonium and that they are not there.

What can you do with 30 kilos of plutonium?
It is enough to make 7 nice size bombs.

This mishap or flaw needs more explanation.
We should find out what is happening.
We must insist that the system of accounting for plutonium is improved.
Immediately.




Iran's Nukes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The hoopla over today's explosion in Iran, in the port city of Deylam located north of Busheur, is a typical reaction.

This explosion signifies the problems that we face and points out our own limitations with regard to Iran.

Why the commotion?
Deylam is 100 miles away from the Busheur.
Busheur is a military base with an $800 million nuclear reactor project.
In our world, that is like saying that there was a small explosion in Philadelphia and asking whether Washington DC was safe.

Israel said they were not responsible.
The US said the same.
It probably was just an accident.
It could have been a gasoline delivery truck that exploded.
The problem is that we just do not know, and we will probably never really know for sure.

We know so little about Iran, even less about their program let alone their people.
Questions about Iran's nuclear energy and nuclear weapons abound.
Our reaction to whatever it really was today points out how on edge we all are.



Who Killed Hariri?
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Rafik Hariri, former prime minister of Lebanon, is dead, murdered.
We need not shed tears, but we must struggle to understand.
Deciphering the motivation behind and ramifications of this assassination offers us an essential lesson into the workings of the Middle East.

Lebanon could be a world player. It could be a mini-Switzerland.
Lebanon was once the baking capital of the MidEast.
Lebanon is a little country with tremendous economic potential, but that potential will never be realized as long as it continues to be occupied by Syria.

Hariri was a Sunni Muslim with ties to the Saudis.
Hariri was public about his opposition to the Syria occupation.

Only 2 groups could have gained form his demise.
* Anti Saudi Shiites in Lebanon.
That would make the assassination religiously motivated.
* Syria backed assassins.
That would make the attack politically motivated.

What must happen in order for Lebanon to regain prominence as a great center for business and trade and vacation?
Quiet on the streets. Syria must leave. Hizbullah must be controlled.
Bilateral talks with Israel must be reestablished.

Welcome to the Middle East, a place where ideas and religious conflict are always/often motivating forces for murder.



By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors abound, all about Israel:
Disengagement might well result in civil war.
Vast numbers of soldiers will disobey orders.
The majority of Israel is against the Gaza plan.
A large segment of the population is not in favor of the moves Sharon is taking.

The people spreading these ideas are, in fact, interested parties.
They ARE lobbyists trying to motivate and upset the masses.
They ARE painting a false doomsday scenario.
They ARE representatives of extremist, not mainstream, groups.
They are NOT representative of the Israeli people.
They are NOT evaluating the trends in Israel.
They are NOT representing the rabbis of the soldiers.

They are successful because they are a small, vocal, well organized and well funded group. Anyone articulating these ideas should be immediately shunned.
What they say is not newsworthy, it is not worthy of coverage.

Is there a threat to Ariel Sharon's life and to the lives of others in his government? Yes. There is. But not because of the Gaza Plan. Because of extremists who think they are above the law.



Ceasefire with Hamas
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and Islamic Jihad may be pushing along the road of support for Abbas,

Hamas and Islamic Jihad clearly heard what Abbas, their would-be nemesis, had to say.
And they are now considering a ceasefire.
Of course, they do not call it a ceasefire they call it "a quiet."

Hamas and Islamic Jihad do not even recognize Israel's right to exist. It is hard to have a ceasefire with a party that does not exist. But they listened to "Brother Abbas" as they called him.

And yet, there are several reasons why Hamas and Islamic Jihad may continue with this period of quiet:
** They are afraid to call Abass' bluff.
It could mean terrible, Palestinian against Palestinian, bloodshed and they might lose
** They fear failure on the street.
If they fail to convince the masses, it will be a long-term loss.
** They feel that they are in a PR battle and backed into a corner.
They are pressured because Israel is conforming by releasing prisoners and returning exiled Palestinians.

This is a very precarious situation.



The Hamas vs Abbas Option
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Abbas is putting his foot down.
He is firing his own security chiefs for failing to stop acts of terror.

This move is extremely important.
It is another major step forward towards maintaining the ceasefire.
It positions Abbas as a leader whose actions speak as loudly as his words.
It will force the Palestinian street to debate the Hamas vs Abbas option, to decide if they want continued violence or a resolution of the conflict.
It means Abbas is no longer on the tightrope, he has decided to confront terror from within.
It means that Abbas realizes that the terror will destroy his society if it is not stopped.

This is best considered as another step in the right direction.
Now, he must follow through, we must follow up.

It is a good sign, but celebration is premature.



$100,000 for a Suicide Bomber
By Micah Halpern


Thursday February 10, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and the Syria are trying to upset the applecart.

Iran and Syria sponsor Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah is offering $100,000 to anyone volunteering to be blown to smithereens on a suicide bombing mission in Israel.
The thinking behind this lucrative offer is that a break in the ceasefire might force Israel to retaliate.

$100,000!!!! That is 4x's more than Saddam Hussein's highest offer at the peak of his sponsorship of terror.

And -- there are even rumors in intelligence circles that there is a Hezbollah contract out on the head of the new Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

For certain parties in the region, conflict is the preferred status quo.
It is essential that we recognize and remember this.
For those thinkers, it is an all or nothing game.
Right now they cannot destroy Israel, so they wait - even in a status of war until they have the opportunity and capability.

Why is that so frightening?
Because it is the direct opposite of the position of real politik.
Realistic issues dictate moderation.
Israel is on the map, deal with it.



Watch the Subststance
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday February 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the Sharm Summit is over, it is time to monitor 2 items:
Substance & Symbols

Words were spoken. Hands were shaken. Pictures were taken. Smiles, smiles, smiles.
Nothing was signed.

Israel has officially called the agreement a "cessation of violence" - not a "ceasefire."
Yesterday, the day of the summit, the official PA website continued to run the cartoon of Ariel Sharon eating little Arab children.

We must carefully watch what both sides say and what they do.
We must monitor how each side follows up on violations.
We must demand that the parties be held accountable for any violations.

It is too easy to simply smile and say the summit was a success.
Reality must change on the ground, that is real success.



Summit - Just a 1st Step
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday February 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Sharm Summit ended with an oral agreement. Not an end to the violence, not even a ceasefire, an oral agreement.

Is that success or is it failure?
It is what we call a first step. A very impressive first step.

Two things must now happen simultaneously.
Palestinian President Abbas must act to prevent the terror. He must educate his people, teaching them that non violence is the new, preferred way to go

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon must choose not to act. He must not retaliate and he must not launch operations against terrorists.

These are important steps forward.
They are hard tasks to accomplish.
If the leaders don't make these attempts, all newly gained hope is lost.
If they don't do it quickly, it will be one step forward, many steps backwards.



Condi's Irony and the Mid East
By Micah Halpern

Sunday February 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It is a proven fact.
Whenever international attention is focused on negotiations between Israel and an Arab partner, threats of terror increase exponentially.
The phenomenon also holds true when a high level US dignitary is in the region.

In order to better secure Israel and the visiting foreign dignitaries during those periods, Israel sets up additional and surprise check points.
Tuesday's Summit in Sharm between Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinians and Israel now coupled with the presence of the US Secretary of State in the region increases an already tense situation.

Here's the irony of it all:
Condi Rice is speaking to Israel about those very checkpoints.
She is asking Israel to reduce and even eliminate the checkpoints.
She wants checkpoints reduced to a minimum, now, when they will be at a necessary all time high.

Statistics are clear.
As soon as you take down or ease up on the checkpoints, terrorists slip in.
Checkpoints prevent terror.
The first best step in eliminating checkpoints is having Palestinians stop the terror and control the terrorists.



Airline Risks and Security
By Micah Halpern

Saturday February 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday local NY news stations reported that two Delta flights destined for US were "at risk".

Flight 119 from Paris and Flight 81 from Amsterdam were thought to have security problems, yet both landed without incident.

The threats were called in. Neither of the cockpits were at risk of being forcibly entered.

The question is: At what point do you take down a plane or land early or even return to the airport of embarkation.
The answer is: It all depends on the level of risk. Clearly, in both of these cases communication was constant and the risk was defused or resolved through confirmation on the ground. When the risk is greater and intel is sparse and communication is negligible you have to send the plane home or land it early.

And when the risk is even greater, we have to consider downing the plane.



Rice & the Peace Summit
By Micah Halpern

Friday February 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It is going to be busy next week in the Middle East.
Condi Rice will be on her first official Secretary of State visit to the region.
Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinians and Israel will be meeting in the glorious Red Sea resort of Sharm a Sheikh participating in a Peace Summit.

Rice should not attend this Summit even if invited.

Reason #1 The US must let the parties in the region discuss these issues on their own.

Reason #2 The people on the street in the region need to feel that discussions are not being forced by the US or by other external and world pressures.

Reason #3 It is very important that Egypt be seen as host and in charge.

Reason #4 Egypt and Jordan are jockeying for control in the Arab world. They will be working together to help spearhead a pro-Western perspective.

Reason #5 It is essential to side with Egypt and Jordan and not Saudi Arabia, the other power in the Mid East. Saudi Arabia represents pro Islamic forces often contrary to the West.

The US and specifically Condi Rice will get reports from all the parties.
Those reports and their emphasis will be a very import vehicle for analysis.



Summit in Egypt
By Micah Halpern

Thursday February 3, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A peace summit is set for Sharm el Sheik next week.

Egypt is host. Jordan and the Palestinians are coming. So is Israel.

Yesterday, Egypt's National Security Adviser General Omar Suleiman invited Ariel Sharon to the summit while they were having a face to face 40 minute meeting in Israel.
What happened next? Suleiman returned to Egypt and met with none other than Haled Mashal, the head of Hamas.

Suleiman reported on Israel's concessions in relation to the ceasefire and tried to convince Hamas to join in the ceasefire.
Mashal retorted that Israel's concessions were not enough.

Egypt is trying to exert pressure on the extremists. They have far more power than the new Palestinian President Abbas.
There is more of a chance of Hamas joining a ceasefire when Egypt insists and Jordan requests than when the Palestinian begs.

In the Arab world, Egypt has a proven track record fighting extremists.
In the Arab world, Egypt is still the big power.



Syria & Jordan Mend Fence
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday, February 2, 2005


I've Been Thinking:

Syria and Jordan are mending relations. That is a gargantuan step in the Middle East.

The (very tall) young and relatively new Syrian president Bashar Assad ventured to Amman, Jordan to meet the (quite short) young and relatively new Jordanian King, Abdullah.

The two spoke in December, but this was the first time since April 2004 that Assad has been to Jordan.

Together, in Amman the two rulers resolved a border dispute concerning an area all of 165 yards big that Syria had taken and now returned.

Far more important were the topics covered by the Jordanian and Syrian on regional issues. They included Iraq and the Palestinians, Egypt and the US, the Iraqi elections, the role of the West in their region and the specific US presence in the area vis a vis Syria.

Jordan wants to be a leader in the Middle East.
Her Arab neighbors believe that Jordan, i.e. King Abdullah, can play the role of a trusted broker in almost any serious conflict there.

Egypt wants the Arabs to step forward and help the Palestinians.
Jordan does not want to be outdone by Egypt.
In meeting the Syrian president, Abdullah is shoring up his power base.



Watch Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday, February 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Keep your eye on Turkey.

We need to spend significant time understanding, watching and asking Turkey for help.

Turkey is one of the key players in the Middle East. If we watch well, we will be rewarded with a superior understanding of the region.

Turkey is the only long standing democracy in the Arab world. It has a healthy yet mixed attitude toward the West.

Turkey's population is highly educated and highly motivated. It is home to a significant percentage of Muslim extremists.

Turkey borders Iraq, Iran and Syria.

Turkey and Israel have a developing relationship, with the usual ups and downs of official diplomacy.

Turkey can be the perfect liaison on almost every issue in the Middle East.

This week, Israel's Military Chief of Staff visited Turkey. It was the first time ever such a trip took place. Last year, the Turkish chief went to Israel. During the meeting I believe that they probably sealed a $1.5 billion arms deal and arranged for important joint training operations.

The better we understand Turkey, the better we will be able to predict the future.



Iraqis Don't Cower in Fear
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 30, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Iraqi elections are over. The turnout was high.

Iraqis came out to vote despite the threats. Local Iraqi's understand the facts on the ground better than our talking heads and analysts looking out proverbial windows on this side of the world.

Iraqis have lived under physical threats for decades and this particular threat did not throw them. In the Iraqi mind the fear of being "punished" for their vote was worthwhile. They convinced themselves that the risk was minimal, that the terrorists would not be able to find them. And they were right.

Masses are always more powerful than the few when they stand up.
The opposite of standing up in defiance is cowering in fear.
And that's when another Saddamesque figure is invited back to power.

President Bush understands more now than he did before. By saying: "Terrorist violence will not end with the election" the president took a significant step forward.




Palestinian Infighting Foreshadows Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Today there was fighting in Gaza.
The fighting came fresh out of an election. It was between rival Palestinian terrorist groups Hamas and Fatah. Hamas just trounced maintstream Fatah in this week's election.

The fighting started during a Hamas rally/victory march through an area known to be nearly totally inhabited by Fatah supporters. Local guns went blasting in response to the Hamas taunts of: "You chose secularism. You should have chose Islam."

Between the guns, knives and clubs, Fatah supporters wounded over 20 Palestinians.

This is just the begining.
Internal conflicts will rule until replaced by true safety and security.

The Palestinian street is an exact parallel with Iraq.
Elections are not the end they are just a tiny first step.
True progress will only happen when there is safety on the streets.
What is true in Gaza will be true in Baghdad as of tomorrow.



Hamas - the Winner
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 28, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Elections just took place in Gaza. 10 cities went to the polls.

Palestinians elected Hamas in 8 of their 10 elections. Of the 118 seats up for grabs, Hamas trumped Fatah, Abbas' party. Hamas won 75 seats, Fatah won only 39.

Hamas spokesman Muhri a Masri called it the "choice of Jihad and resistance." "We consider this a victory as the victory of the Palestinian people."

This is a gargantuan move in Palestinian terms. Palestinians embracing Hamas. Gaza was always known to support more radical perspectives while at the same time embracing Hamas. 2/3 of the votes went to an outright terror organization. Conventional wisdom always held that the Palestinians were a moderate people. This may be a foreshadowing of troubling political times.

Abbas has a big job ahead. He must isolate the extremists and convince the masses of the value of moderation and coexistence.

This election shows that Gaza, at least, wants to continue the terror against Israel and the West.



They're All Wrong About Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The elections in Iraq are on Sunday and every analyst has it totally wrong.

Everyone is saying how the elections will change things.
That shows just how little they know about terror and the Middle East.

Terrorists have declared war on democracy.
They are attacking the election process because it is an easy target.
It is their favorite target for now.

After the elections the terrorists will continue to strike.
They will just change their orientation.

The terrorists will only lose their power when the Iraqi masses rise up against them. Until then they will attack all symbols of the West and of collaboration, including Shiite symbols. The Shiites are the archenemy of the Sunni terrorists. To the terrorists the Shiites represent both a different Islamic approach and a different approach to the US.

The all important street must be turned against terror.
Only then will there be peace and democracy in Iraq.




Condi Rice and the MidEast
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Now that Condi Rice has been confirmed by the Senate, it is time to make a few predictions.

I predict that the new Secretary of State:
* will need almost no learning curve and be up and running Foggy Bottom asap
* will perpetuate the zero tolerance attitude from the leaders of the Middle East so that the Bush policy against terror continues as if uninterrupted
* will be greeted by one of two scenarios vis a vis the Middle East
- less likely: people will tow the US line not only because Rice is so well prepared and demanding, but out of fear and respect generated after the Iraq invasion
- most likely: that leaders and politicians in the Middle East will do to her what they have done to so many other Western diplomats, befuddle them with the status quo, with local and religious issues and with doubletalk making it almost impossible to accomplish the larger US agenda

That means that Arab leaders on the ground, especially those who were hoping for 4-6 months of unsupervised American policy will have to rethink their own approach to US initiatives.

Condi Rice knows the players and understands their games.
She has a reputation.



Beat Terror with Education
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 25, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The capture of Abu Omar al-Kurdi, aka, Sami Mohammed Ali Said al-Jaaf, a top assistant of the notorious terrorist Zarkawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, is just a small, albeit important, step in bringing order to Iraq.

No doubt that killing and capturing terrorists is very important in bringing safety and security and democracy to Iraq. And the coalition should be proud of this success.

But influencing the masses is our real goal, and we must never lose sight of that--Zarkawi and the other terrorists never do. The Coalition's main objective should be to make certain that the masses feel safe and secure.

Take away the terrorist's tools of fear!
A military campaign to find terrorists is one step.
An educational campaign to empower the people to reject the terrorists, their goals and objectives is another and that must be developed and implemented.

Education must be added to the list of priorities, it is an essential component of the fight against terror. Without education, terror will continue to gain momentum. It will receive popular support and refuge, even local sponsorship and local recruits.

If you take away local support you destroy the terrorist's ability to function well.
Right now, the terrorists are fighting for the hearts of local Iraqis.
Right now, they seem to be winning that fight.



Id al Adha, A Lull in Violence
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 23, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a lull in Palestinian violence against Israelis during the past few days.

Some attribute it to the actions of the new prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas.

This may indeed be true but there is another important factor to consider.

Today ends the four-day Muslim holiday Id al Adha that translates into English as the festival of the sacrifice. It is sometimes called the festival and sometimes called the festival of the sheep.

There are only two ids or festivals on this religious level in Islam, the other is id al fitr and it marks the end of the month long Ramadan fast.

Id al Adha takes place on the 10th day of the last and 12th Muslim month, dhu'l hijja. It commemorates the binding of Ishmael, who, according to the Koran was brought by Abraham as a sacrifice to God or Allah and was spared at the last minute when a sheep appeared and was offered instead. It also marks the time of the pilgrimage, the haj.

To commemorate Id al Adha Muslims make pilgrimage to Mecca and world over, they offer sacrifices and eat sheep, divided between family, friends and the needy.

If the lull in violence continues, we will know that credit belongs to the strong arm of justice rather than the far reach of religion.



Terror Analysis: Better Late than Never
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 22, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Authorities are looking for a Moroccan, Amer Azizi, a major player in the simultaneous Madrid train bombings that murdered nearly 200 people on the eve of the Spanish election.

They now believe that Azizi met with two of the 9/11 bombers, specifically Mohamed Atta.

Well good morning. Even if they did not have direct evidence "authorities" should have been thinking about this. Counter terror analysis is not like preparing a trial. You do not need irrefutable evidence. You need to predict the future and find the loose links and make the connections that the terrorists are making.

Thankfully, the people who need to know are now starting to understand the nature of these networks, that they are very loosely connected and search out one another for support and assistance.

Better late than never, but they should have figured it out a long time ago.




Chinese Terrorists
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 21, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Why is anyone surprised that potential terrorists are coming into the United States over the Mexican border? It is the easiest illegal way to get into the country.

We spend too much time thinking about airports. Terrorists are resourceful, so too must we be - in our thinking and in our preventive actions.

There is a certain irony that the smugglers of illegal workers, immigrants and contraband are the essential contacts needed to keep our country safe. Smugglers are the gate keepers, they are the people who keep tabs on who is coming in and out of the country.

As the smuggler sees it, there is a hierarchy of evil. Terrorists are far higher up the food chain than lowly smugglers. And terrorists clearly stand out among the normal clientele crossing the border.

The Chinese terrorists give smugglers a bad name. That is exactly why the smuggler set up a meeting with US Federal authorities, he didn't show --- but still, he threw the pictures and names of the Chinese over the border fence.

Recently an Arab man, an illegal immigrant, who also came across the Mexican border was arrested in Sand Diego. He held a California license to be a gas truck driver and his job was to bring gas to the port. He was arrested as part of a ring plotting a terror attack against the port.

Sometimes, we just get lucky.



Kids and Guns
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 20,2005

I've Been Thinking:

In Jenin today Israeli soldiers killed a child. His name was Salahdin abu Muhsen. It was a grave error. The boy had a toy gun.

This incident points to some very troubling and important issues that we must not be afraid to raise and discuss.

Palestinian children are sometimes outfitted with real guns and real bombs. They are encouraged to play games that use toy guns to re-create scenarios that are not at all innocent. They are not imitating cops and robbers or king of the mountain, those innocuous games we grew up on. Palestinian children often play a game called "Shahid", martyr, hero. It's sad, it dismays, it's true.

That Israeli soldiers made this mistake is truly tragic, but somehow, inevitable. It is tragic and inevitable because Palestinian children carry real guns often enough that any gun is assumed to be real by Israeli soldiers, no matter how young the hand that carries it. And it's tragic that Palestinian children often play games where they want to become suicide terrorists fighting the Israelis.

Palestinian kids do not dream of a happy successful future, they dream of murdering innocent Israelis and even being killed themselves in order to become the shahid/martyr/hero.




Kidnapping Mistakes
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 19,2005

I've Been Thinking:

The release of Iraqi Catholic Archbishop Georges Casmousa was no accident.

Official comments suggesting that the terrorists mistook Casmoussa for someone else are just spin, actually, they are pure BALONEY!

When the Archbishop of Mousal was kidnapped and thrown into the trunk of a car the terrorists knew exactly what they were doing.
But international and local pressure was too great for them to handle so they claimed mistaken identity and gave him up even without making a demand.
The captors miscalculated.
Then everyone said "oops."

Local Catholics and other religious leaders are personally petrified about what might happen to them. So, of course, they are going to agree that it was a case of mistaken identity. The terrorists made a public relations blunder so great that even the extreme Sunni and Shiites who are virulently anti-Catholic were repulsed when an Archbishop was kidnapped. They would have taken less heat had they just blown him up with a car bomb.

There are lessons to be learned:
* The people making operational decisions for the terrorists are not always aware of their ramifications.
* What is said after the fact is not necessarily what really happened.
* No one is safe, regardless of the position they hold, because the terrorists are less predictable than we think.



Kidnap Christians, Why?
By Micah Halpern

Monday January 17, 2005

I've been thinking:

Today, in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, Catholic Archbishop Georges Casmoussa was thrown into the trunk of a car and kidnapped by terrorists.

There are about 650,000 Christians in Iraq. They compose only 3 percent of the 25 million people there, but they are an influential and successful minority that always got along with everyone.

This kidnapping is not an isolated attack against Christians in Iraq.
In fact, it is only the latest among a slew of attacks on Christians. In August, for example, 4 churches were simultaneously bombed - 12 people were killed, 61 were wounded and 15,000 Christians fled Iraq.

Why are the terrorists targeting Catholics?

Because of the symbolic value of attacking psduedo outsiders.
Christians are different. Christians are independent. Christians align themselves with Rome which is seen as the damned West. Because the objective of the terrorists is to divide Iraq into smaller and smaller sub-sects.

These Iraqi terrorists will easily murder - Muslims, Sunnis and Shiites, and Christians. Their goal is to divide and conquer.




Abu Mazen - A Fools Game
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It really is a fools game.

The US and the Israelis want the new Palestinian leadership to clamp down on the terrorists.
The new Palestinian leader, Abu Mazen, wants to come to a negotiated settlement with the terrorist organizations creating a ceasefire.

Abu Mazen fears a civil war -- Palestinian fighting Palestinian.
What he does not understand is that for Arafat infighting was his goal and glory - he relished the infighting, keeping Palestinians at one another's throat. Discord was his style.

Abu Mazen needs to create order and safety.
He knows that he's not Arafat, he doesn't have the power, charisma or cachet - he must in some way crack down or the terrorists will run wild over his society and his power will be totally diminished.

Abu Mazen believes that he will save face with everyone especially the violent terrorists by conducting negotiations - but he is mistaken.
Instead, he will be seen by everyone as weak and perceived as lacking the power and position to clamp down later.

Abu Mazen will self destruct due to his inability, paralysis, foolhardy myopia, to act promptly.
Now's when it counts. Later is too late.



It's Arafat All Over
By Micah Halpern

January 15, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It's Arafat all over again.

In a Washington Post piece an Israeli official is quoted saying: "to the best of our knowledge" the PA Preventive Security Service had input into the deadly attack that claimed 6 innocent Israelis at Karni Junction on Thursday January 13.

What is the Preventive Security Service? It's right up there with Abu Mazen.
So, yes, they, along with the Al Aksa Brigades, which is connected to Fatah, are responsible for the terror.

But how did the attack happen? Think. In order for the attackers to blow open the door with a 250 lb. bomb, and then rush thru a barrier separating the Israel and Palestinian sides with their guns blasting, they first had to pass several layers of Palestinian security. Were guns blazing then? It seems the terrorists were ushered thru and right up to their target with forged passes.

And now? Now the new Prime Minister, Ahmed Qureira, says in a Reuters interview that it is wrong for Sharon to postpone talks with the PA.
"This is a wrong decision and shows that Israel is trying to find any excuse to disrupt any serious effort that leads to reviving the peace process and to achieving calm."

Abu Mazen then blames the Israelis.
"There are parties on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides who want to obstruct attempts to restart peace moves and achieve calm. So it is wrong to seize any opportunity to justify taking that path."
He calls it an opportunity. I call it a terror attack.

This is a play right out of Arafat's book.
Act One: pseudo sponsor the terror.
Act Two: turn the other way.
Finale: blame Israel for the terror and for cracking down.



Lessons for Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The recent terror attack at Karni junction in Gaza was meant to teach a lesson to newly elected Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas. It's obvious.

The attack took place in the area dedicated to transferring Palestinian agriculture to Israeli markets.

What a shame. A shame because of the senseless loss of life. A shame because this attack struck out at an important symbol. Karni was/is a symbol of productivity for the Palestinians, from there their produce goes out to the markets for sale.

The terrorists want it to be clear to Abbas and the Palestinians that they control the tension - not the politicians. The attack was a joint venture between Hamas, the Popular Resistance Committees and Al Aksa Brigade. The Brigade is supposed to a Fatah organization, headed by Abbas.

Now it is time for the new political leadership to teach a lesson.
Abbas must clamp down and appoint people who will listen to him.
Otherwise, these terrorist factions will take charge of the entire society.



Voting out of Iraq
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 13, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Iraq is now registering voters.

From January 17-23 Iraqis around the world can register and then vote in January's elections. Any former Iraqi can vote as long as he or she has an Iraqi document. A birth certificate, passport, ID card University certificate property ownership. Even the son of any Iraqi citizen is eligible to vote.

Is this wise? I do not think so.
If the fear is low Sunni voter turnout so be it. But do not draft outside forces and people to influence internal elections.

The people who should be voting in Iraq are the citizens who live there. Those citizens must assume the roles and responsibilities for the future of their country.

Otherwise the wrong people will be influencing Iraq's first free democratic post Saddam election.

The entire idea is ludicrous. Using the election criteria all 180,000 Iraqi Jews who were exiled from Iraq and fled to Israel now qualify. Today together with their descendants they probably number over a million people. They should not be determining what happens in Iraq's elections.

It is a crazy idea!



Rajoub Resigns
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's resignation by Jabril Raboub is extremely significant.

He was the national security advisor in the PA, formerly the head of security in the West Bank under Arafat. I have met him several times.

This resignation sends out a message:
- Rajoub lost his power struggle to Muhamed Dahlan, Abass' preferred Gaza strong man.
- We might be looking at a serious shake up of PA security forces. If Rajoub is out, so too might be many other security heads, forcing middle level leaders to be brought under a single security umbrella.

The downside is --- this part of the world likes a strong man. He lends stability. He knocks heads. He provides order. His reputation precedes him. He is feared. A new person, an outsider or a mid level person, will not be able to achieve those ends easily. Certainly, not immediately.

And in this part of the world, order rules.



Pressure Abbas
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 11, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

I knew that the Bush White House would invite Abu Mazzen over as soon as he was elected. Literally, the invitation was extended the very next day.

The sentence structure may be awkward, but the wording was frank and the sentiment probably sincere. While speaking to reporters in the Oval Office the president put it this way:
"I look forward to welcoming him here to Washington if he chooses to come here."

But pressure must be placed on both Bush and Abbas before an actual visit commences.

Before Abbas comes we must hear him denounce the terrorists who lifted him high on their shoulders and paraded proudly through the throngs. That behavior was unacceptable - even for him and certainly for every other world leader.

There should be no double standard for the new Palestinian leader. He doesn't deserve it. Neither do we.



PA Elections
By Micah Halpern

Sunday January 9, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

It is officially over.

Palestinians have elected a president in a fair and free election.
The rewards are gushing in. The Bush Administration has just upped the aid to the PA by $200 million. The EU will be next I'm told with $500 million.

This election is a great new historical development in the annals of Palestinian history. But still, there were some things that worried me.

Certain voting procedures were changed in the middle of the day.
- The polls remained opened for 2 additional hours.
- Palestinians could vote anywhere, all they needed was an ID, they need not have even been registered.
- Not to mention the shooting at the Office of Voter Supervision in Ramallah.

One cannot change the rules during the game.
Never.
There was a low turnout and keeping the polls open was a manipulation.
An abuse of power.

I cautiously await the analysis of the International Observers. The spokesman for Jimmy Carter already said that there was no problem.
Why? Because Israelis let Palestinians get out to vote.

So what really happened? We'll see over the next few days.



Mistakes Happen
By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 8, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

A US F-16 made a deadly mistake today. It dropped a 500lb. bomb on a house south of Mosul, Iraq killing 5-14 innocent people. Any unnecessary death in any war is unfortunate, sad and we must strive to prevent it.

But mistakes happen.

Another enormous mistake would be to change tactics and become "gun-shy" for fear of making other mistakes. The only way to fight these terrorists is to find them.

Remember, the target was hit, bull's eye, and totally destroyed. Only the wrong place was targeted. Accept responsibility. Investigate. Find fault. Punish the people who made the error. Move on.

Over the past week at least 100 Iraqis were killed by local terrorists. The US must launch a serious counterattack and launch it soon if there is any hope for elections on January 30.




Democracy is Not Magic
By Micah Halpern

Friday January 7,2005

I've Been Thinking:

I have been hearing some very pessimistic evaluations about life for the Palestinians after the election.

The negativism has come from Palestinians and Israelis alike.
They are saying that very little change will happen after the elections.
They're right, virtually nothing will change. But it's not supposed to. Not right after. Democracy is not magic.

That is exactly the point. This election is about democracy, about introducing democracy into the lives of a people for whom it is a foreign and difficult to understand concept.
Democracy is supposed to help on the grass roots level, it is not pie in the sky it is not mystical. Democracy is not ethereal. People must first be able to go to work, to make a living, to go to school, to begin the process of building a future.

Then as time progresses, the big issues can begin to be worked out.

Democracy is about individual freedom. After individual freedoms are achieved then the group can find its way. Only after people feel secure and safe. After their daily lives are fulfilled and personal dreams achieved can the larger dreams of a people be realized.

It would be useful for Iraqis to begin to think the same way.



Shame on you Arab League
By Micah Halpern

Thursday January 6, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

There was an AP release yesterday that quoted the Arab League as "condemning terrorist attacks in Iraq."

The statement was released on the day when the bodies of 18 Shiite Muslims were found executed after being missing for several months. The 18 had been on a bus applying for work at a US Army base when their bus was stopped and they were kidnapped. Now their fate has become known.

We have a problem.
The problem is that the statement does not mention attacks on US forces or US civilians.

The Arab league probably does not consider killing American military in Iraq terror. I would agree. After all, members of the US armed forces are fair game in a war. They are armed and trained and know they are targets.

But what about civilians, like contractors, the press and all others out there?
The Arab League statement did not mention them at all.

It should not matter if you are a Muslim or Christian to term it terror.
It should not matter if you are a local or a foreign visitor to term it terror.
Killing all civilians is terror, and it should be condemned.

Shame on you Arab League.



Twisted Logic
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday January 5, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Arab Muslim terrorists attacked the Erez checkpoint, the spot that separates Israel and the Gaza Strip. The attack was an enormous success.

Why? No Israeli injuries. No civilian Arab/ Palestinian injuries.
Three Palestinians soldiers injured and taken to an Israeli hospital.

Timing and location were what counted in this attack:
The terrorists chose Erez because Palestinian Arab Muslim pilgrims are using that specific checkpoint to make their Haj to Mecca.

Israelis loosened restrictions at the checkpoint specifically to allow 4500 religious pilgrims to fulfill their life long dream and participate in the Haj. They loosened restrictions despite the fact that the crossing has been the site of 16 terror strikes since September of 2002, some of them deadly attacks.

Who were the intended victims of the attack?
Palestinians. The terrorists wanted to hurt fellow Muslims. The Israelis are insulated and protected there. The terrorists want to blame Israel.

The logic works like this:
Because of the Israeli checkpoint, Muslims on their way to the Haj would be killed.

What twisted logic. What a shame



The New Arafat
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday January 4, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The comments of PA Presidential candidate Mahmoud Abbas are more and more reminiscent of the Arafat era.

His words to thousands of Palestinians at a funeral highlight the problem.
He called Israel "the Zionist enemy."
For decades, the Arab world and Arafat in particular refused to call Israel by name.
For years Arafat referred to Israel as --- the "Zionist entity', "the Zionist occupier" and "the Zionist enemy."

Abbas' need to speak to the masses in order to secure voter support and steal it from the more radical elements is understandable. But there is a limit and what we are hearing now getting too extreme.

A leader's job is to educate the people, not stoop to their level.
Abbas is wallowing in the lowest of all levels.
Hate mongering.



Abu Mazen's Feet to the Coals
By Micah Halpern

Sunday, January 2, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Why are people surprised by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen? He is, after all, the leading candidate for president in the Palestinian Authority.

In order to garner a significant majority he must:
Articulate harsh anti-Israel messages and present himself as the strong leader.
Be seen in the Arab world as capable of keeping the West and Israel at bay. Keep the others on their toes the way Arafat did so adroitly for decades.

The problem now is: Who is the real Abu Mazen?
His current public embrace of al Aksa and Hamas terrorists and his statements claiming that he will not crack down on them is frightening. Saying that he does not see Hamas as "terrorists" but rather as "fighters against the occupation" is a scary justification for the murder of innocents.
These are chilling reminders of the days of Arafat.

Does he deserve an invite to the White House after his almost certain election?
NO
Not unless he takes a stand against terror and recants his support.
His feet, the real Abu Mazen's feet, must be held to the coals like every other leader.
He cannot give lip-service to the US and then publicly embrace the terrorists.




By Micah Halpern

Saturday January 1, 2005


I've Been Thinking:

Something is out there, and it's not ET.

Since Christmas, there have been 5 reported incidents of lasers locking on to commercial airlines.

This is particularly worrisome.

Laser is an acronym for Light Amplification by Stimulated Energy Radiation. A laser is a beam of high-energy coherent light. We often only think of it as visible light but it can also be infrared or ultra violet light. It has tremendous power and energy.

My point is that 5 examples of laser beams tracking civilian aircraft means that some group out there (not individual) wants to know how the laser works and whether it can interrupt a pilot. All 5 cases were reported by pilots disturbed by the beams and one even suffered an eye injury. The cases were spread across the US.

Whoever and whatever is responsible, this laser locking must be stopped. Then we need to figure out the how and the why. It's imperative.




Troubling Politics in Jenin
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 31, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

This is very funny and very troubling at the same time.
The leading candidate for the PA presidency Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) met with arch terrorist Zakariyah Zubeidi, the head of the al Aksa Brigades, yesterday, in Jenin.

Zubeidi is responsible for the deaths of 100's of innocent Israelis and 5 US citizens. The US State Department has the al Aksa Brigades on their list of terror organizations. And yesterday, Zubeidi carried Abu Mazen on his shoulders through the streets of Jenin.

Why did Abu Mazen let this happen? As part of his campaign?
What did he say about it?
Abu Mazen said, "...they are neither criminals nor murderers. Rather, they are fighting for the honorable lives of their Palestinians brothers."

Zubeidi said, on Israel's Channel 10 News, "...we are not talking about the end of the Intifada, not about a cease-fire and not about an end to terror attacks."

In the proper context one can see how dangerous this is.
Zubeidi rides around Jenin in his 4x4 like he owns the town.
He has personalized pistols.
He has admitted to breaking into the PA and Fatah headquarters in Jenin and taking the municipal leaders captive at gunpoint until they agreed to pay his thugs for their terror attacks.

Abu Mazen's meeting with Zubeidi and his follow-up public comments are troubling, very troubling. The shoulder ride was funny.




Drones
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 30, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

For the third time in a week Israel has launched an offensive in Gaza.

This time they may have hit their target, the leader of Hamas in Khan Yunis.
The mission was accomplished by using a drone that hit him and his associates while in their car.
Yes, a drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle (know in the biz as UAV's).

UAV's look like little model airplanes.
They are remote controlled and outfitted with one or two cameras that transmit real time photos.
Some, like the one that hit the Hamas leader, have missiles with their cameras.

Drones are hard to detect because they are the size of a bird.
They get in close and do the job.
Using UAV's is an essential and safe tool to fight terror.
The US has begun to realize this and to use them in their arsenal against terror.



$20 Mill to the Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 29,2004

I've been thinking:

Yesterday the US Embassy in Tel Aviv confirmed that they had transferred $20 million dollars in cash to the Palestinians Authority.

That's right. Not only 20 million dollars, but cash dollars.

The US said the money would be spent on the Palestinian presidential election, on electricity, on water and on sewage.

A transfer of cash? Are they crazy? Have they figured out an appropriate apparatus to supervise where that money really goes?

President Bush somehow has a blind spot when it comes to this idea. It seems he needs to throw money at the Palestinians.

Is he so self-deceived? Does he really think that the Palestinians will like America? Does he really think that the money will make it to the formally designated targets?

How naive.



India & Israel
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 28, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

In this day and age it is almost impossible to engage in any high level secret activity.
In this day of internet experts and news junkies almost any person in a high level position will be recognized.

Gone are the days when (Israeli Prime Minister) Golda dressed up and secretly went to visit King Hussein of Jordan.

But still, some operations/maneuvers/meetings still require high-level participation and they require secrecy.

For example: India's Minister of Defense just wrapped up a secret visit to Israel with 9 trusted advisers. Joint military maneuvers were arranged for 2005.

Why did this have to happen secretly?
Israel is India's second largest supplier of weapons, after Russia.
India will conclude a deal with Israel for more defense contracts and equipment upgrades especially on their helicopters, the Cheetah and the Russian Topolev.

And Israel gets much more than a juicy defense contract.
It gets first hand inside info on how today's Russian materials stack up against their revised, enhanced and original weapons.

That's worth a lot more than the $2 billion in arms trade India has commissioned.



Anyone But Fatah
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 26,2004

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority election will be much closer than originally thought.

Using last week's local elections as an indication, when they again go to the polls on January 9 Palestinians might experience their equivalent of "Anyone But Bush."

"Anyone But Fatah," might become the clarion and effective campaign slogan.
Fatah is Arafat's party.
The local elections of last week showed that Fatah lost in areas considered to be their strongholds, especially south of Jerusalem where conventional wisdom always held that "cooler heads prevailed."

The main alternative to Fatah is the more radical Hamas. 7 village elections went to Hamas. 12 went to Fatah. The remaining 7 are so close they could easily go to Hamas.

What does it mean? It means that people are fed up with Fatah. It means that democracy does not always usher in a more liberal government. And it means that even if Abu Mazen wins on January 9, he will not have a sound wall to wall endorsement.

Stay tuned.



Israel's Old/New Labor Party
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 24, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

"Out with the old and in with the new." Or better - "Out with the old -- that is, except for Shimon Peres."

That seems to be the motto of Israel's left wing Labor Party.

Israel's left is trying to resuscitate itself under the new/old leadership of Shimon Peres. They've tried this before.
This week there were party elections to determine who would be the Labor ministers joining Ariel Sharon's National Unity Government.

There was a complete sweep:
Amram Mitznah, the former head of Labor's party, who ran and lost the election to Sharon, was so far down the list it was downright embarrassing.
"Labor past" was conspicuously out.
The top 2 places went to the young guard - Ophir Pines- Paz and Isaac Herzog. Two youngish men with experience and public notoriety but not of leadership caliber, at least, not yet.

What are we seeing? Condemnation of the failed past decade of Labor leadership and a ringing endorsement for changing the public face of Labor.
Will it succeed? The only chance Labor has is to join with Sharon in this government and then, afterwards, launch a battle to gain back the voters in the middle.
Those voters are right now firmly with Sharon. But who knows?
Nothing is as fickle as Israeli politics.



Palestinian Elections
By Micah Halpern


Thursday December 23, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

Today the Palestinians successfully held local elections in 26 municipalities.
This should be seen as a prelude to their upcoming elections.

The elections for the 826 council seats in the 26 cities, towns and villages were surprisingly, remarkably, uneventful. This bodes well for the elections scheduled in two and a half weeks, on January 9, 2005.

There are some pitfalls, however, that we must consider.
Palestinian election law requires women to be represented.
Muslim culture does not.

In the course of the election there was great pressure brought on many of the female candidates to withdraw their candidacy. In many towns female candidates were prevented from posting placards and signs with their pictures. Pressure on many of the candidates came even from their own family members.

Women are over 50% of the Palestinian population.
We will see what happens on January 9.



Saudi-Libya Conflict
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 22, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

There is another internal conflict brewing among Muslims.
This time it's Saudi Arabia and Libya.

Saudi Arabia has withdrawn its ambassador from Libya.
It is really a year old rumble.
At the Arab League Summit in March of 2003, the Saudi Prince snubbed Colonel Muammar Khadaffi, the leader of Libya.
Khadaffi was so offended that he set in motion a plot to assassinate the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.
Now, in response, the Saudis have taken action, downgrading their diplomatic status by withdrawing their ambassador.

What is the weirdest part of this plot?
The whole story comes to light because of a US investigation and subsequent trial of an American-Libyan named Abdurahman al-Amoudi. That trial just took place in October.
Al Amoudi was investigated for having unexplainably obtaining hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Libyans. Clue followed evidence and from it all emerged the plot to assassinate the Prince.

I am not surprised neither should you be.



Terror TV in the US
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 21, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

No more terrorist TV in the United States of America.

The US just shut down Hezbullah's al Manar Satellite TV. Just like the French did last week.
Why? Because Hezbullah is a terrorist organization!

I certainly do not understand how it was possible that Hezbullah was allowed to broadcast in the US in the first place - this is more than simply a case of free speech, but the good news is that a good lesson was learned from the French.

More good news: today the US also successfully closed 4 Islamic Jihad web sites that were being directed to US readers in Arabic and English. The sites were hosted in the Ukraine, but the long arm of US justice reached out to stop the process and called the Ukrainian hosts who pulled the plug on Islamic Jihad.
Why shut them down?
Same reason. Because Islamic Jihad is a terrorist organization!

We must search out these terror sites and when we find them, just shut them down. It takes time and research and lots of effort. But we must.

Terrorists must not be able to use the World Wide Web, TV or the radio waves in order to destroy us.

Allowing terrorist media outlets to roam the air waves freely makes us complicit in our own destruction.



SADDAM'S HENCHMEN
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 19, 2004

I've Been Thinking:

The trial of Saddam's associates is in the news. Grabbing headlines...but for the wrong reasons.

True. It's important to try Saddam's henchmen. They should be tried now and not wait until after the elections.
Prime Minister Allawi understands. He knows how important these trials are in shaping Iraqi public opinion.

But here's why it's really important:
Because it's important to the Iraqi people.
A just and public trial will be a crucial tool in swaying the general Iraqi masses.
It is as a serious attempt to eradicate the senseless murders of so many Iraqis. They will see it as a vehicle to cleanse the past and correct the current situation.

Only thru a public trial and thru public punishment will the message be transmitted to the masses. Only then will the general population be recruited to fight and assist against other senseless murders. Iraqi society as a whole must rise up and they must be convinced. And then they will be drafted into a movement to save today's Iraq from slipping into another catastrophic scenario.

A public trial and punishment is a clear way to achieve that goal. The best way.



Unintelligent Intelligence
By Micah Halpern

Saturday, December 18, 2004

I've been thinking:

The Intelligence Bill was finally passed and signed into law on Friday. It was a great success--bringing the 15 US intelligence agencies under one roof. Now they can communicate effectively, now they can be directed together toward a common goal.

But here is the problem.

Better people are still needed on the ground.
Smarter people, people with good, unaccented, language skills.
People like that are more important than a new director or even a bigger budget.
We need people out in the field and behind desks that understand the enemy.
We need people who understand the culture and language of our enemies.

That will take time. It will take years to retool. It will take years to rethink. It will take years to properly assess and readdress our current threats.

Our intelligence agencies and our political leaders still do not understand the threat of radical Islam.



A Hero is Murdered
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 17, 2004

I've been thinking:

Yesterday, Kissim Imhawi was assassinated in Iraq. People should recognize his name, but most won't.

He was the Director General of the Ministry of Communications in Iraq. He was the one who put the phone lines up after they were destroyed during the war.
Kissim spent nearly 20 years in Saddam’s prisons. And yesterday, in a flash, his car was riddled with bullets from submachine guns.

For Iraq Kissim represented change and development.
He was a symbol of the future.
Murdered by enemies of hope.

This assisnation, once again, proves my point.
First comes security and safety, only after they are in place will democracy follow.



Osama tapes
By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Osama gave us another audiotape.
This time it aired on the 24 hour TV news station al Jazeera.
I am not surprised by the audiotape or its message.
You should not be surprised either.

There are several reasons for these tapes, all of them essential for bin Laden.

Osama wants you to be afraid. He wants Americans to rethink policy and strategy, to capitulate and buckle under the threats. He wants you to think he can strike anywhere and anytime.

Osama also wants his followers to think that he is still in 100% control. That his message remains the same and his that power is even greater than it was.

Osama wants to prove to the masses of Muslims around the world that the US and her allies around the world, including the Saudi royal family, will all fall from power because they are infidels and not blessed.

Just remember -- He is wrong.
He cannot strike anywhere and is actually hiding for his life.
His followers are more and more disparate.
The masses of Muslims in the world can also be swayed to the other side.




US Embassy Stays in TA
By Micah Halpern


I've been thinking:

President Bush used another presidential waiver today.

In 1995 Congress passed a law to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the capital city as recognized by Israel. That move has yet to take place. The President has the ability to postpone the move. That's a presidential waiver.

The President claims that it is "necessary to protect the national security interests of the United States." And that, "my administration remains committed to beginning the process of moving our embassy to Jerusalem."

I do not understand!

Why is Israel the only country in the world that cannot decide where its capital should be located?
What does the peace process have to do with where the US embassy sits?
Does the administration think it will be perceived as less biased toward Israel in the eyes of the Palestinians or in the eyes of the Arab, Muslim and European world if they hold off on this move? They must.

That is a big mistake. The US is a friend of Israel and they should be straightforward about it. They should move the embassy and act clearly without mixed messages. They should explain their policy and stand by it. Friends and enemies will respect them for it--even if they disagree.

Do not tippy toe around policy.
It leads to murky principles and zig zagging statements on international affairs.
It is behavior unbecoming to the United States of America.



When Bad News is Good News
By Micah Halpern


I've been thinking:

Hamas and Islamic Jihad are at one another's throat.

It's serious infighting, and trust me, these terrorist groups are not arguing about the choice of menu in their respective soup kitchens.

The rift is over power and religion.
Hamas is composed of Sunni Muslims, they take orders from Sunni clerics.

Islamic Jihad is Shiite, they take their orders from Iran.

Until recently, the rule that goes "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" applied. The two groups coordinated movements and worked together to attack Israelis and Westerners.

But now Hamas feels that Jihad is encroaching on their turf and worse, even stealing the limelight.

Sunni/ Hamas leader Fathi Hamad is on record saying "They have managed to takeover the media and get ahead of us." Hamad is a member of the Sura Council, the highest Hamas religious entity in Gaza and responsible for Hamas communications.

What happens when terrorists fight one another and anarchy sets in?
It bodes well for the rest of us.



Palestinians Apologize to Kuwait
By Micah Halpern


I've been thinking:
Mahmoud Abbas, the leading Palestinian presidential candidate, arrived in Kuwait today.

He made the trip expressly to apologize publicly for the fact that the Palestinians sided with Iraq in the 1990 Gulf War.

Remember, Arafat and the Palestinians along with Jordan supported the Iraqi aggression that began with an attack on Kuwait. In response, all Palestinians were evicted from Kuwait after the war. There have been no relations since. Palestinians are personae non grata in Kuwait.

So why the change?

Because Abbas, or Abu Mazen as he is called, needs to be seen as a person who mends fences in the Arab world. He needs to campaign across Muslim and Arab countries in order to be perceived as a leader, and elected leader, by his own people.

I do not believe, however, that the Kuwaitis will be easily duped. They remember the Iraqi invasion of 1990 and Palestinian reaction as if it were yesterday.



Powell and Mideast Reform
By Micah Halpern


I've been thinking:
This weekend there was a US sponsored conference hilariously touted as the "Forum for the Future," a gathering on political reform in the Middle East.

The conference was held in Rabat, Morocco. 20 Middle Eastern and North African countries attended.

Colin Powell and US policy took some hard shots right on the chin.

Saudi Prince and Foreign Minister, Faisal, summed it all up when he publicly challenged the US Secretary of State saying: "Let us face it ... the real bone of contention is the longest conflict in modern history. For too long, the Arabs have witnessed the Western bias toward Israel ..."

Powell's response was sad. It was as if he was taken by surprise. He asked for leaders to show the way. He said that no change could happen with out them.

This is exactly the point. The Arab world (as well as Europe) has no idea why the US supports Israel. And the US has no idea of how to defend, or define, its position to the Arab world.

So what happens? They talk in circles. Where is the logic in that?

It should be made clear that democratic reform in totalitarian regimes of the Middle East has nothing to do with US policy toward Israel and the Palestinians.

It should be made clear that "the Palestinian" cannot and should not be an excuse for Arab regimes anymore.

What's needed now is straight talk, not diplomatic speak.



Female Terrorist
By Micah Halpern


I've been thinking:

Arin Ahmed is a female Palestinian terrorist from Beit Sahour, a suburb of Bethlehem.

In May of 2002 she strapped a bomb onto her body and set out to murder Jews in Rishon Letzion, part of a double suicide bombing.
While on the way she changed her mind and returned home. Her partner continued on, exploded himself in a walking mall, killing 2 and wounding 41.

Arin turned herself in and she was just convicted of aiding in a terror attack.

The Israeli court sentenced her to 3 years imprisonment. She will be out in 6 months because of time served before the trial.

Why?
Why only three years for facilitating a terrorist attack?
Because she cooperated with intelligence and justice authorities.

This raises a critical question.
Can a terrorist repent?
And if he/she does should that effect the punishment?

Arin Ahmed did not actually kill anyone. But she was certainly part of the process.

Any cooperation from a terrorist becomes very important in protecting the homefront. When terrorists freely talk, they solve all kinds of mysteries -- how things are done, the process of the cell, links to leaders higher up the food chain, intel about activities...

Information is worth a short sentence---not contrition.



Barghouti's Bid
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
Over the past years I have met with Marwan Barghouti.
He is far more extreme than Arafat was, if only because he clearly articulates his expectations and his demands in every language he speaks. No doublespeak!

His off and on again political candidacy clearly defines how much of a threat he is to the old establishment. Undoubtedly he is a terrorists leader. He is also very creative. Actually, he is one of the most creative thinkers I have met within the Palestinian leadership.

But he is not a liberal.

Barghouti's major concession to Israel is accepting that Israel exists within the pre '67 borders.
That is his minimal demand. He has told me that.

You do not even want to hear about his "best case scenario."



Arab Disunity
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
We, in the West, are under a misconception that the Arab world is united.

It is not.
In order to understand the Arab world, we must first see the vast conflicts within their world and study Arab methods for conflict resolution. Only then will we be able to predict future behavior and plan, accordingly, a sophisticated and workable foreign policy for the Middle East.

Here is one example:
Since 1990 oil rich Kuwait and the Palestinians have been bitter enemies. Kuwait adopted an anti-Palestinian stance during the first Gulf War after Arafat and the Palestinians supported Iraq and Saddam when Kuwait was invaded.

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak just visited Kuwait. While there he succeeded in convincing the Kuwaitis to lift their 14 year ban on the Palestinians. He received a Kuwaiti commitment to assist in the Palestinian Israeli peace negotiations.

This shows, once again, the movement and change, dare I say progress, which has shaken down since Arafat's deaths.

Egypt NEEDS to be the main player and leader of the moderate Middle East and bringing Kuwait into the game is a big success. That is one of the dynamics of the Middle East that the West has yet to assimilate.




Sly Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
We've witnessed another terror attack in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a police state. They should be in control of these matters. They employ huge numbers of people in security and as informants -- and they still cannot root out these terrorists.

Why is that? The answer is clear.

The Saudi population offers massive popular support for the terrorists and their anti-US attacks.

Despite the protestations of Saudi spokesmen and leaders, the streets of Saudi Arabia are rife with hatred of the US.

They may say: "The kingdom is determined to root out terrorism and preserve its security and stability," as the state-guided newspaper, Okaz, quoted Prince Saud as telling US Ambassador James Oberwatter.

But the facts on the ground prove otherwise.

Rooting out terror in a monarchy, in a totalitarian dictatorship, should be significantly easier than rooting out terror in a democracy.

I am still waiting for real results.



Iraq: Don't Vote Now
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
Iraq should postpone their elections.
I know the US wants them to take place as scheduled on January 30.
But it is a mistake.

Iraq is not prepared to vote. Iraq is not ready for democracy.
Afghanistan postponed elections until the voters were closer to being ready.
Iraq should do the same.
Before democracy, the situation on the street must be safe and secure.

When IS the right time?
When people feel safe to walk the streets.
When people have a modicum of security.
When locals and residents are not in perpetual fear of being blown up in a terror attack.
That will be the right time.



Thompson's Ludicrous Swan Song
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
Tommy Thompson, the outgoing, US Secretary of Health has sung his last, great, swan song. But rather than going out on a high note, he hit low.

His final ruminations sounded to more like the ravings of a fool than sound advice.

What could he have been thinking when he said:
"For the life of me I cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do."

Put aside transmitting intel to the terrorists or giving them ideas, that's a non-issue, terrorists already know what they want or need to know, they don't need us for that. My concern is the thought process of the man responsible for a very significant portion of American society. These are the final comments of a secretary of Health for the US? This is how he wants to be remembered?

His comments are ludicrous and ridiculous. Thompson should not be rewarded with another position of trust. Leaders should not and cannot stoop to the level of "I cannot believe ... I cannot understand."

It was part of his responsibility as a leader to make certain that he did indeed understand. It was part of his job to make sure that his fears will never be realized.




Silly White House
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
If I were a democratic strategist...
I would have a field-day with the White House's $20 million gift (even if they call it "assistance") to the Palestinians.

Here's why:

First, the White House proposed giving the $20 million to help in the January 9 Palestinian elections.

Next, (much as I predicted) certain congressional leaders took exception to the White House's attempt to bypass Congress, which is charged with the responsibility of allocating money.

Plus, Congress has already said NO to the Palestinians, an absolute NO unless they instituted proper transparency and accountability.

Now the White house is suggesting that the same money go to the PA in order to pay an over due electric bill owed Israel.

They are hoping the pro Israel Congress will not challenge this gift to the PA because it is, supposed, eventually destined for Israel.

But who is to say that is where it I going to end up? There are no traces in place!

What backwards logic!
How gullible does the White House assume Congress to be?!
Until the PA puts in proper controls it should get no US money!



Goal Post Negotiations
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
There is an art to the game of negotiation that's been perfected by several Arab leaders. Arafat was king when it came to this negotiating style. Now, Bashar al Assad of Syria is trying his hand.

Syria, after prodding by Egypt, has announced that they want to re-establish the negotiations with Israel that broke off in 2000.

Sounds good, right?

The UN special envoy to the Mid East thinks so. He says it would be a mistake for Israel to decline and that Syria wants to negotiate without conditions.

But pay attention. This is a farce, not an invitation to negotiate.
The Syrians may say that there are no pre-conditions, but their basic premise belies that. They want to start "where the negotiations broke off in 2000."

That, in and of itself, is a precondition!

That is how Arafat used to negotiate. It is a classic form of moving the goalposts. The reason for stopping negotiations then, after concessions were already made, now becomes the starting point of the new negotiations. It is the perfect ploy.

Stall negotiations only to restart them in order to gain more.

It would be wise for the US and the West to wait, watch and see how it plays out.



Of Terror and Money Laundering
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
The tiny, Arab, oil rich state of Bahrain called for and is hosting a 2 day meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force, known as MENAFATF.

The objective is to fight the current plague of money laundering and terror financing emanating out of the Middle East and North Africa.
This is a very creative and important initiative.

It is definitely a significant step forward. It means that Arab countries are advocating an end to terror as we know it. It means that certain Arab countries just might be joining the Western bandwagon and battling the sources of terror because they recognize the evils of terror.

But will it be successful? It's a big BUT.
Only time will tell if they are truly committed to fight the sources that fund terror. We'll know more when we see how it plays out in the press of Arab participating counties.



Silly Saudis
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

Ive been thinking:
The Saudis shot and killed a terrorist in Jeddah today.
The reality is that this was a major bungle!
The Saudi Interior Ministry boasted about their success saying: "guns, ammunition, grenades, pipe bombs and money were found on the man."

But did they really have anything to be proud of? Not when you hear the whole story.

Here's what happened. Saudi TV reported that: "Security forces surrounded a car used by a wanted person, and when he saw them he tried to use a hand grenade in his possession, then died after being fired upon." There's more: "A search of his car yielded a loaded handgun, two machine-guns, ammunition, three high-explosive grenades, four pipe bombs and communication devices and $2500 in cash was also found in the car." And witnesses at the scene told Reuters News Service that two men fled the scene, leaving behind rifles and ammunition in a car.

One man was killed, but two got clear away. Weapons were discovered, but in a car-not on the man as the Ministry declared.

Given that nearly 200 people, mostly foreigners have been killed in terror attacks since the bombings in Riyadh 18 months ago, and given the Saudi rhetoric that they are cracking down on terror, how could killing one terrorist while two escaped and netting 3 guns and 3 hand grenades be seen as a success? If it is, then it is a sad state of affairs.



Democracy Sham
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
Why is Marwan Barghouti not standing for election in the PA?

Don't say the reason is because he's in prison. That's irrelevant. It would not have been the first time that prisoners ran for election. Or won.

And if Barghouti actually won, it would be a sharp slap in the face to Israel.

The former head of the Tanzim says that he is withdrawing his candidacy because he wants a single candidate from the Fatah party in the election. That's disturbing. Even more disturbing is that this is the second time someone has withdrawn a candidacy for that reason. Last week Mohammad Dahlan did the same.

What the people really need to know is that:
democracy is not what happens in Egypt but in Europe
democracy means multiple candidates
democracy means debates and even primaries
Otherwise, it's all a sham. Like electing a prisoner.



Terrorist TV?
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

I've been thinking:
Is Al Jazeera TV Really Terrorist TV?
YES, says the current Iraqi defense minister, Hazem Shaalan, in an interview with the Arabic London newspaper, Ashraq Al Awsat.

HOWEVER, despite the problems that new Iraqi leadership and the US justifiably have with them, no one can deny that Al Jazeera revolutionized the Arab world with their news. Even though it's been banned from Iraq, the 24 hour Arabic news station headquartered in Qatar still scoops almost every story - especially the beheadings of Westerners. Now they even have competition from Al Arabia, a 24 hour network out of Dubai.

As I see it: These networks air criticism of corrupt Arab leadership and expose the Arab world for what it is. They are outside the control of the Arab regimes that would kill them for what they air.
Of course Al Jazeera is against the American presence and uses beheadings to boost ratings. They then become a conduit, a source, from the Middle East to the West.

Of course they slant their pieces and explain the cause of the terrorist. That is their editorial perspective.

No one should be surprised that they emotionally romanticize and lend ideological support to the cause of the terrorists in Iraq and around the world. That is their viewership.

Their viewers despise the West, especially America.
Hundreds of millions of people support the actions of the terrorists.

Al Jazeera reports to those people.

That is freaky



Bone Headed Thinking
By Micah Halpern

Welcome to The Micah Report, my ruminations on Israel, terror & security and the Middle East as well as politics and world events. Thanks for stopping by.

Thoughts:
Farouk Kaddoumi is the current head of Fatah. He, along with Arafat, was one of the founders of Fatah.
Now he is trying to claim his place as the new authentic Palestinian leader.

But listen to this:
He has not stepped foot on either Israeli or Palestinian land for over half a century, not even after Oslo.
Today he said publicly that in order for the Palestinian's to be true to their cause they must not give up their fight against Israel.

This is not progress.

Many Palestinians may agree with him. But in order for the next Palestinian leader to succeed he must be realistic, he must understand that the path toward peace with Israel is the only avenue that will bring the Palestinians any financial future or any future at all as a people.

The Israelis will reach out and embrace a peace partner.
The Israelis will fight a terrorist leader.





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