3 Mill Cyber-attacks Against Israeli Airport
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday February 12, 2019 I've Been Thinking: Israel's largest international airport is named after David Ben Gurion, the first president of Israel. Ben Gurion Airport is now the target of cyber attacks. In fact, Ben Gurion Airport repels 3 million cyberattacks per day. Per Day!!! Most of the attacks are from computer bots. But there are also real hackers involved. In order to better defend against these attacks Israel, and especially Ben Gurion Airport, has created a consortium of cyber defense companies, organizations and even private companies. The consortium includes Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), CyberArk, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., El Al’s Cockpit Innovation hub, Karamba Security and ClearSky. They have created a combination of veteran cybersecurity and aerospace firms that, according to an official statement from the consortium, already offer "a broad range of aviation, security, intelligence and cyber solutions for the global market" alongside "young startups with cutting edge cyber products and technologies." The threats are real. And Israel is taking them very seriously. Read my latest book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com US Hits ISIS w Serious Blow
By Micah Halpern
Sunday November 9, 2014 I've Been Thinking: I cannot confirm this, but I think I have very good news to report for the United States and for the West and for democracy. One of the US led airstrikes on Saturday hit an ISIS convoy. Rumor is that Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, was in the convoy and was seriously wounded. Other ISIS leaders were also in the convoy - some were killed and some were badly wounded. The strike took place in Anbar province. The people of Anbar are the source of most of the info. This could be the critical blow to ISIS. ISIS needs charismatic leaders and they will have a very difficult time reorganizing if these rumors are true. Read my latest book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Hamas Kills 3 Yr Old
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday June 25, 2014 I'm Predicting: When a three year old baby girl dies it can only be called a tragedy. Yesterday Hamas launched four rockets at Israel from Gaza. One of the rockets never made it out of Gaza. It landed on a Palestinians house killing the three year old baby and wounding four other member of her family. The family lived in Beit Lahia which is in the Northern part of Gaza. There will be no justice for the dead three year old Palestinian girl. There will be no cries to arrest those Palestinians who shot the rocket. There will be no investigation in Gaza. No one will be held accountable for her death. Actually, it would not surprise me if, over the next few days, we hear Hamas blaming Israel for the death, claiming that Israel was responsible for the girl's death. I will not be surprised if Hamas claims that, because the rockets were being launched to defend against Israel, the real culprit is Israel. If Hamas can claim that Israel murdered this little girl, and if they make that claim stick, they will be absolved of any responsibility and the child will have died a martyr for the cause. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Hamas - PA Agreement Nears
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday May 20, 2014 I'm Predicting: It is looking like Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are getting closer and closer to actually coming to an agreement. The PA and Hamas have never been so close to a deal in the past. I still cannot see these two entities coexisting. It seems obvious to me that Hamas will very quickly increase their power - and in doing so a mini civil war will erupt and the entire Palestinian infrastructure will implode. And when the dust settles the only real power and stability will be found in local Palestinian leadership. When the ink dries on the agreement between Hamas and the The problem is that the PA will be hemorrhaging – power, status, influence, funds. Hamas will break down and destroy the entire Hamas will intimidate all Palestinians and force compliance. And the Palestinian Authority as we know it will disappear within weeks of a final agreement. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Abbas to DC to Meet Obama
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 16, 2014 I'm Predicting: On Monday US President Obama will meet with Palestinian President Abbas. The agenda is clear. Obama wants to inject a sense of hope into a negotiation process that has ground to a halt and seems totally hopeless. Obama has charisma and charm and he can certainly make Abbas feel good about himself which is part of the White House's objective. A few days ago, in Ramallah, Abbas said:: "I am 79 years old and am not ready to end my life with treason." He sees the US suggested agreement as exactly that - a form of treason. Now, we have not seen the agreement. And actually, on Friday, Abbas said that he has not seen an agreement either. I can only guess what is in the agreement - and that is not where the problem lies. The problem is recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. Abbas is so upset by the process conducted by the US that he is being pressured by his advisers and others to just declare independence. He feels he would get UN support and his advisers are shouting at him not to extend the negotiation deadline beyond April. That explains why the leader of the Palestinian Authority went to Russia at the end of January. He admitted his frustration to Moscow and they are probably coming up with an alternative plan. I would predict that when Abbas walks out of the Oval Office he will be more hopeful than when he walks in. Obama will succeed in persuading Abbas to give the peace talks more of a chance. Obama will ask for another year, Abbas will probably concede to three to six more months of negotiations. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Predicting Egypt
By Micah Halpern
Saturday August 17, 2013 I'm Predicting: The Muslim Brotherhood has called for a week of demonstrations. Violence is rampant throughout Egypt. Pro-Morsi protesters have torched twelve churches in three days of rioting and attacked twenty more. Through careful observation over these next few days we will be able to determine if the momentum is subsiding or building. We will get a sense of the direction the country is taking. A greater crackdown by the military can either force more protests or frighten the protestors sending them back to their homes. Most Western companies have shut down their facilities and told their employees to stay at home. GM, Electrolux, BP oil and Royal Shell oil all sent their workers home citing their own safety. Electrolux, for example, employees 7000 people in Egypt and runs seven factories. By early next week I predict that the situation in Egypt will be calmer. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com US &Israel Say Syria Conflict Will Continue
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday July 24, 2013 I'm Predicting: Over the past few weeks both US and Israeli defense agencies have concluded that the civil war in Syria may not end quickly. This analysis is an important recognition that the conflict is much deeper than expected. At the beginning the United States felt that anyone who opposed Assad was good and hence, they would be victorious. The US has now concluded that both sides are bad. The pendulum has swung back and forth several times already and both the US and Israel think that the momentum might swing back and forth several more times. I see the situation differently. Day after day I see the Assad regime striking and attacking and retaking and gaining. While there have been several isolated rebel victories, for the past ten weeks there has been an overwhelming amount of success on the side of the regime. There is an unevenness in Western reportage. Rebel successes are touted and the wins by the Assad regime are not at all well reported to the West. But when ones follows local press in Syria and Lebanon it becomes clear that the regime is inflicting serious losses on the rebels. Contrary to Israeli and Unites States opinion, I predict that by the end of the summer it will all be over in Syria. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com White House Says Tide Shifts in Syria
By Micah Halpern
Friday July 19, 2013 I'm Predicting: The tide of the conflict in Syria is changing. Yesterday, during the White House briefing, Jay Carney said this: "And while there are ups and downs on the battlefield and changes in momentum, the fact is Bashar al-Assad will never again rule Syria in the way that he did before and the Syrian people demand, rightfully, new leadership and a new government." "And we are focusing our efforts to help bring about the day when a transition can take place that will help Syria turn the corner towards a cessation of violence and reconciliation, and the possibility of a government that respects the rights of all of Syria's people." The real meaning of it all is this: I would speculate that once Assad takes back control, he will brutally destroy his enemies - like even he has never done before. Then, he might begin some liberalizing measures. Liberalizing Syria will only come after all those who rose up against the president are dead or exiled. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Army in Egypt Must Enforce Law & Order
By Micah Halpern
Monday July 8, 2013 I'm Predicting: Newspapers in Egypt have been filled with coverage of their revolutionary events. The United States does not fare well in those reports. The US is presented as totally out of touch with what is happening in Egypt. The Egyptians cannot believe that the United States really believes that the ousting of Morsi was a coup. For them it is clear as day that it was a social revolution and that Morsi could have, and should have, simply stepped down. Amidst all the coverage on the revolution was an important and almost overlooked account about bringing law back to the Sinai. The Egyptians found and blew up 40 terrorist tunnels coming from Gaza. These tunnels transport arms that provide ammunition to terrorists who attack Egyptians. And indeed, just today, an Egyptian border crossing was attacked by terrorists. Egypt has a long way to go. But for now, expect the Egyptian army to bring back law and order throughout the country. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Egypt: Do or Die Weekend
By Micah Halpern
Friday June 28, 2013 I'm Predicting: A leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was shot dead in an execution yesterday. It was an attack on the Muslim Brotherhood office. There was no mistake or misunderstanding. The Muslim Brotherhood blames those who supported Mubarak. The timing of the attack was no accident either. This weekend begins a slew of anti-government, anti-Morsi and anti-Muslim Brotherhood protests. The date mark exactly one year since Morsi ascended to power. The secular masses have organized huge demonstrations. The Brotherhood has pledged to defend the honor of Morsi and to defend their values against the secularists. I predict that, coupled with the protests, will be counter protests. And I predict that there will be violence between the groups and with the police and the army. This weekend will tell us whether there will be a coup in Egypt and whether the Egyptian army will step in. It all depends on how violent it all gets. The calculus is simple --- the more violence, the more likely the coup. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Crisis in Egypt - - - Soon
By Micah Halpern
Saturday June 22, 2013 I'm Predicting: The situation is now at the point of near crisis in Egypt. Morsi is barely holding on to his regime and secular masses are starting to organize. The secularists are pinning their hopes on a political climax set for June 30th at an enormous rally they have planned. Thus far 15 million people have signed a petition to oust Morsi and hold new elections. The letter only began circulating 3 weeks ago and has caught on like wildfire. The number 15 million is important. Everything related to the rally is high energy. The Muslim Brotherhood has also organized a rally. But there has been little real response to their effort. I do not envision an all out civil war in Egypt like there is in Syria. But I do expect to see serious violence in the streets and I definitely anticipate that the demonstrations will get out of hand. There is plenty of pent up frustration. As the political and emotional heat rises, so do tempers and violence. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Iran's Election
By Micah Halpern
Saturday June 15, 2013 I'm Predicting: Yesterday 50 million Iranians went to vote for president. Ahmadinejad's term has come to an end. Six candidates ran in this primary election. In a week, the top two contenders will face off in a runoff. Do not mistake appearance for reality. Yes, there is a popular vote in Iran, but the only vote that actually counts is that of the Grand Ayatollah. Think of the popular election as a variable that the grand Ayatollah uses to consider when making his decision. On the eve of the election yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei said: "What is important is that everyone takes part" He was speaking live, on state television, as he cast his ballot in the capital, Tehran. Of the 6 candidates, only 3 have a chance. One is the mayor of Teheran, Ghalibaf, former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and their preferred candidate. Another is the protege of Ahmadinejad, a candidate named Meshai. And the last one with any chance is an independent conservative named Jalili. I predict that Jalili will be the next president of Iran. I choose him because he is both conservative and independent. The Grand Ayatollah can shape him and form him and direct him without outside political influences. He is the Ayatollah's type of man. In the cases of the others there is far too much external baggage that comes with the candidates. We will see what happens in just a few days. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Assad Near Victory
By Micah Halpern
Sunday June 9, 2013 I'm Predicting: Bashar Assad, with the help of Hezbollah, is taking back Syria. I am repeating the prediction I have made several times already. By the end of summer, the Syrian regime will be back in place - and exacting revenge on all those who challenged the president these past two years. As you read this the Assad forces and Hezbollah are launching an operation to retake Aleppo. Aleppo is the largest city in Syria with just over 2 million people. It is 180 miles north of Damascus. Aleppo is located in the northwestern part of the country. Damascus, the Syrian capital, only has about 1.7 million residents and it is situated in the south of Syria. Most of Damascus is in the hands of Assad. There are only two or three communities still holding out and under rebel control. The Syrian regime has begun a series of operations to take back those communities, also. I would say that by next Sunday, a week from today, Aleppo and all of Damascus will be back in the hands of Assad. The rest of the country will be brought back under his control within the next few weeks. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Abbas is in A Cliche
By Micah Halpern
Thursday May 30, 2013 I'm Predicting: Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas is really caught up in cliche. He is up the tree without a ladder. He is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He is up the river without a paddle. I could go on. The US is really putting pressure on Abbas to join the Israelis and sit down at the negotiating table. But Abbas has promised his people over and over that there will be no negotiations while there is still settlement building of any kind, to any degree, by Israel. If Abbas comes to the table he appears weak to his people and to the rest of the Arab world. If he stays away he alienates both the United States and Israel. Here is what he must do. Abbas must allow himself to be publicly dragged and heavily enticed to come to the table. Public reluctance will be the bone he throws to Palestinians and all other Arabs and coming to the table will be the present he delivers to the United States. Abbas must ask for, even demand, a high price to sit at the table. He must make his demands public so that the mighty US and powerful Israel succumb to his Palestinian demands. Then and only then can Mahmoud Abbas come to the table. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Russia: Why They Supply Syria
By Micah Halpern
Friday May 17, 2013 I've Been Thinking: Moscow is asking why they are being publically challenged about supplying weapons to Syria. "I do not understand why the media is trying to create a sensation out of this," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is quoted by AFP as saying. "We have not hidden that we supply weapons to Syria under signed contracts, without violating any international agreements or our own legislation." He is correct. Russia is not hiding anything and they are not violating any international laws. They are trying to protect their investment in Syria. They have invested in hardware and in infrastructure. And they have invested in human capital in the form of Bashar Assad himself. Here's the rub: While Russia is not violating international laws there is no doubt that Syria is violating their contracts with Russia. The contracts say that the weapons will be used in defense and that they will not be transferred or resold. That they will not be given to terrorist organizations. Russia asserts that there is nothing else they can do other than insist that the contacts be held up. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Syrian Brutality - Eating Hearts
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday May 15, 2013 I'm Predicting: It is as gruesome as it was extremely effective. Abu Sakkar, the head of the Syrian rebel unit called Farouk Brigade, is on video cutting open the chest of an Assad fighter. Abu Sakkar slashes the rib bone and skin and then cuts out the heart, lifts it in the air, and says I will "eat your hearts." Then Abu Sakkar takes a bite. This is a particularly brutal unit of fighters. And they are not thought to be Islamist, Marxist or secularist. They are just known to be extremely brutal. The message is very clear. Everyone in the field knows what is at stake - and outsider should not misread the field. Both sides in this battle for Syria are grotesquely brutal. I expect that this video will be countered with other, even more brutal, butchery carried out by the Assad camp. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Gaza Shoots Rocket into Israel
By Micah Halpern
Monday April 8, 2013 I'm Predicting: Yesterday a rocket was shot from Gaza into Israel. It landed in Shaar HaNegev. No one was hurt during the attack. There are two essential points to rocket strike against Israel. First just this past Tuesday the Israeli air force launched a strike against 2 targets in Gaza. The targets were shooting and preparing rocket attacks against Israel. The second point is that the Palestinians successfully shot a rocket into Israel on the eve of Holocaust Day. For modern Israelis, no day represents the need to make certain that they not sit passively, become victims and not respond to threats the way Holocaust Day does. The Palestinians in Gaza knew this, and yet, they deliberately shot their rockets. If there are any more shots, be certain that Israel will respond. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com The New Middle East
By Micah Halpern
Saturday March 30, 2013 I'm Predicting: Al Jazeera is reporting that 5 simultaneous bombs exploded in Iraq killing 18 and wounding well over 100 people. All the bombs were placed near Shiite mosques and the plan was to murder as many Shiites as possible en route to Friday prayers. The increase of violence in Iraq has been virtually unreported in the West. There is almost no interest in what happens there anymore. The main reason for this is the famous cliche "out of sight out of mind." The fact that the United States is no longer in Iraq means that Americans have no real interest in covering this fast emerging anarchy. One would have hoped that Iraq would have learned a lesson in peaceful coexistence after so much US money, training, weapons, aid, military manpower and so many professional agencies spent so much effort that internal tribal and inter-religious conflicts would subside and that Iraqis would work together in order to rebuild their country and live together rather than reverting to the primal desire for one group to murder another. But that just is not the case. Imagine - if this is happening in Iraq, what is going to happen in Libya and Egypt and in Syria and Tunisia. I am not hopeful about a new Arab Middle East. Not hopeful at all. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com More Problems in Egypt
By Micah Halpern
Saturday March 9, 2013 I'm Predicting: Things in Egypt have just gotten even more complicated. There have been riots over the past few weeks, expressions of discontent with the system and with the government. In addition there have been acts of violence and crackdowns against the protesters. Scores of Egyptians have been killed. Now the police have begun to walk away from their jobs and to strike. They are fed up with being blamed for the crackdowns and the violence. The security services have tried to move in to act as police and the Muslim Brotherhood has said that they themselves will step in and become the police. If Brotherhood people act as police the problems will worsen exponentially. Giving the Brotherhood power and weapons will permit them carte blanche to crush any form of descent and any religious or cultural entity of their choosing. My prediction --- Expect even more problems, more violence and more extremism to emerge out of Egypt. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Israel Not Right Wing
By Micah Halpern
Thursday January 24, 2013 I'm Predicting: For months now commentators and analysts have been talking about the radicalization of Israeli politics and bemoaning the fact that mainstream Israel was leaning more and more to the right. They were wrong. These trained observers of Israeli politics swallowed hook, line and sinker the Palestinian line. That line is simply anti-Israel. Anything that is not decisively pro-Palestinian is seen by commentators as rabidly right wing and as an extremist point of view. The Atid party, a centrist party, gained 19 of the 120 Knesset seats and is now the 2nd largest party in the Knesset only after Netanyahu's Likud. Both these parties seem to want to join forces. Most important is the universal draft - a requirement that every Israeli serve in the army. Interestingly, the other new and newly huge party in the Knesset, Habayit HaYehudi or The Jewish Home, believes in the same principle. They all also believe in similar social issues with Atid, like the breakdown of the power of the ultra orthodox rabbinate. These two new parties, both led by young new political leaders, compose 30 Knesset seats. That is exactly 25% of the Israeli parliament. They are not extremist, they are a real reflection of the new Israel. On social issues they are more similar than one might be led to believe. With Netanyahu and his 31 seats, Lapid with his 19 seats and Bennett with his 11 seats these parties combined have 61 seats, a perfect number. Just over half of the 120 seats needed to form a government. My bet is that these three parties will form the coalition Netanyahu needs to govern. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Iran Elections June 14
By Micah Halpern
Monday January 14, 2013 I'm Predicting: Elections for president of Iran will take place exactly five months from now, on June 14th. The new president will replace Ahmadinejad who has served the maximum two terms in office. A series of messages have been sent out to all candidates. The messages are saying: Do not criticize the system. The 2009 elections saw a revolution that almost toppled the Islamic regime. Most of the leaders of that revolution are still under house arrest. Many of the followers and much of the infrastructure has since been dismantled. This time around the candidates will be vetted. The real victor will be a party player. So far the candidates are Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, a prominent lawmaker named Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and ex-Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei. My money right now is on Larijani - but things can always change. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Israel Elections
By Micah Halpern
Sunday January 6, 2013 I'm Predicting: There is little doubt who the next prime minister of Israel will be. Barring some freak historical crisis Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister after the January 22nd election. The only real question is which parties will become part of his coalition. Do not be deceived because Netanyahu and his party are right of center. The current coalition took in Labor from the left as well as the Lieberman-led right wing party called Yisrael Beitaynu, Israel is Our Home, which has now become a partner with Likud. The best possible option for Netanyahu would be to take either the left or the right - not a mix. Other parties are intoxicated by the possibility of getting a ministry, so almost any party is a potential coalition partner - but not necessarily in the best interest of the prime minister. On the left Lapid is pushing to be part of the government joined with other centre-left parties like Kadima and even Labor. Right wing parties are also hoping to lock up the coalition. Habayit Ha'yehudi leader Naftali Bennet could easily join a Netanyahu coalition if he takes 15 seats, which is a distinct possibility, and Netanyahu takes 35. That would leave only 10 seats open for other parties to negotiate over. And if Shas, the Sephardic party gets 11 seats it is an easy right-of-center coalition. This would be ideal for Netanyahu. The fewer parties in the coalition the fewer headaches and the more stable it is. Only time will tell. A coalition with the left is, once again, certainly a strong possibility. But in this time around I would bet on a Likud / Shas / Habayit Ha'yehudi coalition. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Syria's Economy
By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 23, 2012 I'm Predicting: Predicting what will happen in Syria is almost impossible to do. But there are some indicators. Like Russia: Right now, it seems as if the pendulum is swinging toward the rebels and that Russia is hinting that Assad's time may be coming to an end. But that pendulum can just as easily swing in the other direction any day now. Like the money flow: I have been following the flow of money in Syria with great interest. Assad tapped into his Central Bank which 22 months ago had $18 billion in reserves, by now it is depleted by half. Like the economy: Normally, civil wars are terrible for an economy. Before this conflict Syrian currency was 48 pounds to one US dollar. At one point it went to 105 pounds per US dollar. The currency is now coming down and hovers in the range of 90 plus Syrian pounds per one US dollar. That is s huge injection into the local economy - but not as it should be from the Syrian Central Bank. The rebels are getting huge foreign currency injections. That is how they pay for the war. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, the US and even some European countries must be pouring dollars into Syria. They are giving it to the rebels, paying them to fight. Money changers across Syria report rebel commanders selling dollars. This is all counter-intuitive. In times of crisis people buy dollars to be safe and protect themselves against uncertainty. In this case they are selling dollars - large amounts of dollars. The foreign money is almost all US dollars and those dollars are keeping the pound stable. Despite the analysis and the expertise and past experience, nobody knows what will happen next in Syria. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com More Terror To Come
By Micah Halpern
Thursday October 11, 2012 I'm Predicting: The NYPD has announced that New York City is facing a major threat from Iranian agents. The NYPD is working hard to combat that threat. The intel I am reading suggests that in addition to Iran, al Qaeda is setting its crosshairs on New York City and on other US targets outside the continent. Under new leader Ayman Zawahiri, al Qaeda wants to continue the momentum of the Benghazi attack of 9/11. Zawahiri wants the entire world to know that al Qaeda is alive and active. He especially wants to hit the United States during election season and show how US policy strengthens al Qaeda, not weakens al Qaeda. There is no doubt that teams have been dispatched throughout the globe to strike at US targets. Even after the US shores up sites there will be easy pickings - much like the Benghazi consulate. The reality is that foreign diplomatic and business presences are not safe unless the locals step in to help. Neither the US marines nor special security can adequately protect the people or the compounds alone. Al Qaeda is counting on it. Count on more attacks over the next five weeks leading up to the November 6th US presidential elections. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Travel Schedules Tell All
By Micah Halpern
Sunday July 8 , 2012 I'm Predicting: I try to monitor the movements of world leaders, their actions provide a key to predicting future decisions and events. Knowing the travel schedules of world leaders allows me to see trends and shifting alliances between nations. President Mohammed Morsi of Egypt will be travelling to Saudi Arabia this week. The trip was announced by the Saudi ambassador to Cairo and came as no surprise. This will be Morsi's first foreign visit as president and it portends well. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be visiting Iran at the end of August. That visit does not portend well. Abbas accepted an invitation by Iran to attend the Non-Aligned Pact Conference. This is important. Palestinian leadership has expressed serious doubt about the current direction world powers are taking. The Palestinians are not happy with their their status in the hierarchy and they are not happy with priorities set by the United States. US Secretary of State Clinton met with Abbas in Paris this past Friday and will meet with him again next week in Ramallah. But that is not enough access for the Palestinians because it is not bearing fruit. The Non-Aligned Pact meets just before the UN General Assembly convenes in September. I guarantee that at the Non-Aligned Pact Conference the Palestinians will set the stage for another massive public act aimed at embarrassing the United States at the General Assembly. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Iran Will Hit Back
By Micah Halpern
Sunday July 1, 2012 I'm Predicting: The massive sanctions imposed by the European Union on Iran began today. And, quite characteristically, Iran countered with two very important moves. # 1: The head of the Iranian international bank announced that Iran will not sit still and just take this, he said that Iran will retaliate against those countries that are attacking them economically. # 2: Iran announced that they are beginning a 3 day program of missile testing in the center of the country. Official Iranian news is reporting that short, medium and long range missiles will be part of the exercise. Iran has other moves up their sleeve. The Iranians have had months to prepare for this moment, the moment when these long-threatened sanctions were to go into effect. Expect that Iran will come up with a real economic shocker - a counter attack that will almost certainly set the EU on its heels. Expect it in another few days. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com More Church Bombings
By Micah Halpern
Monday June 18, 2012 I'm Predicting: Yesterday three churches were bombed in Nigeria and 19 people were killed in car bombings. Dozens were wounded in the explosions. This violence has been continuous for months now. Thirteen churches have been bombed in the past few months. Gunmen enter and spray the worshipers with their bullets. After the bombings yesterday Christian youth went on a rampage pulling Muslims from their cars, beating them and even killing some of them. In Nigeria today there are terrible Muslim / Christian tensions and the authorities are not cracking down on the violence. There has been no major attempt to reduce the tensions to accept each other. I predict that the killing will continue. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Another Virus Attack on Iran
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday May 29, 2012 I'm Predicting: Iran was hit by another cyber virus. This one is even more devastating than the last three. This new virus is called Flame. The virus just called for an evaluation of all the computers connected to the nuclear program. The extent of this program is so great that it can turn computers on and off, take pictures, turn on microphones - it can literally act on its own and transmit all its own information. Kaspersky antivirus is the source of information, because they detected the virus. Kaspersky is headquartered out of Moscow and I assume that they are the consultants working for Iran to try to isolate and contain this virus. It seems that this virus, Flame, is very similar to the other viruses, Stuxnet that struck Iran in 2010, DUQU that hit Iran in 2011 and Viper that took over their computer systems in early 2012. Kaspersky says that Flame can only be the product of a country dedicated to cyber warfare. They assert that this is not a bored teenager but 5,000 programmers at work. Interestingly, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have also been hit. Kaspersky says that they have found Flame there also. I predicted that this would happen and I am absolutely certain that Iran will be attacked again within six months by another computer virus. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Israel & China
By Micah Halpern
Monday May 21, 2012 I'm Predicting: Yesterday, Benny Gantz, Israel's Military Chief of Staff, took off on a spontaneous visit to China. Gantz and had accepted an invite from China's Vice President Xi Jinping. According to almost everyone, within the next few months Xi Jinping will become the next premier of China. Gantz and Israel have important contacts that need cementing in China. There will certainly be talk about Iran. No doubt Gantz and Xi Jinping will also speak about oil and of course, nuclear proliferation. China wants to know if Israel intends to strike Iran. If yes, when? I await the reports from this very important visit. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Amadinejad to the Olympics
By Micah Halpern
Saturday May 19, 2012 I'm Predicting: The President of Iran has announced that he wants to attend this year's summer Olympics hosted in London. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that he wants to accompany his young athletes and show them support. The statement was covered in great detail by the Iranian news media, explaining just how much pride the Iranian team brings to the Islamic Republic. Great Britain, however, is not very pleased with the Iranian leaders desire to attend. It is not yet clear if an official request has been submitted by the Iranians. Given the nature of the Olympics and the important message of the Games which is that the Olympics is above politics and symbolizes the ability of nations to compete in the sports arena and not fight battles that threaten and endanger human lives - it would be highly unlikely for England to deny this request. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Israel Decides to Act
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday November 2, 2011 I'm Predicting: Over the past few days I have been predicting that if the rockets from Gaza do not stop and if Hamas does not act to try to prevent the launching of rockets, Israel will be forced to respond. Israel will hold Hamas responsible for all the rockets shot from Gaza - even if they were launched by Islamic Jihad. The Israeli Government voted to approve any and all military action to stop the rockets. In lay terms, that means the Israeli cabinet has approved attacks on Hamas from land, from sea and from the air. Expect strike forces on the ground, expect drone attacks, expect helicopter attacks striking at the heart of Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructures. Expect different and creative reprisal attacks from Israel. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com More Rocket Attacks
By Micah Halpern
Monday October 31, 2011 I'm Predicting: There is a serious escalation in the tension between Gaza and Israel. Israel has begun intercepting rocket launch crews as they launch their rockets. They hit the Islamic Jihad cell that has claimed responsibility for the rocket launches. Egypt introduced a cease fire that was supposed to start at 3AM - but it only lasted 8 hours. These attacks were aimed at the big cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon. Expect a much stronger response from Israel. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com US Talking to Muslim Brotherhood
By Micah Halpern
Sunday October 2, 2011 I'm Predicting: The United States has conducted formal diplomatic contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. This is the same Brotherhood that was banned by both Hosni Mubarak and Anwar Sadat. The same Brotherhood that was responsible for the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat. The Muslim Brotherhood is the inspiration for al Qaeda and Hamas and Hezbollah and a host of other Islamic terror movements around the world. Direct talks with the Brotherhood shows a radical shift in US policy. Despite the wishes and wants of the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt has threatened to boycott the recently announced November elections in Egypt. The boycott is based on the predetermined stacking of the election. I predict that there will be no elections in November and if the elections do take place as planned they will be neither free nor democratic Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Future in Libya
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday August 23, 2011 I'm Predicting: Ghadaffi was, is and always will be a tyrant, a despot, a thug. Libyans are celebrating now that he is no longer in control of their country. But is Libya any closer to stability today than it was under the rule of Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi? The NTC, the National Transition Council, the interim government chaired by Mustafa Abdul Jalil and now running the country, has created the beginnings of an infrastructure. But it is only the start. Libya is a tribal country - a collection of 140 tribes that do not get along. Jalil successfully brought together a few of the tribes to fight and oust Ghadaffi. Now he must bring more tribes into the group and begin the arduous task of re-building their country. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Israel Will Strike Soon
By Micah Halpern
Sunday August 21, 2011 I'm Predicting: These past few days have been fraught with tensions in Israel, Gaza and Egypt. Terror escalated. Then came attacks and counter attacks. Now there are demands for justice and demands for apologies. It is in the interest of everyone for calm to be re-introduced. Israel has already expressed regret, but that is not enough. This is not a redo of Turkey. Israel wants to use the apology as a way to help move Israeli - Egyptian relations forward, but the objective of Egypt's request is to quell national angst. Turkey's motivation for demanding an apology from Israel was entirely different, Turkey's aim was to humiliate Israel. Hamas will reign in the rocket launchers from Gaza because they do not want another ground offensive or any offensive similar to operation Caste Lead. But Israel will certainly strike back hard at the terror cells in Gaza. Expect this all to happen over the next 48 hours. And then, it will be over. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Elections in Egypt
By Micah Halpern
Thursday July 21, 2011 I'm Predicting: Once again, yesterday, Egypt announced that they will not condone international monitors and observers during their September elections. That is a very bad sign and signals a very poor future for transparency. At this point, with less than two months until elections, I predict that elections in Egypt will be postponed. If they are not postponed, the elections will not be real and the results will not be honest. Egypt has yet to organize for the vote. Egyptians still need to register, train, district, educate. They need to actually lay out what people are voting for. They need to figure out a process and a procedure to collect ballots and tally votes. None of this has been done. Over 80% of Egypt has said they would like to vote. This is eight times the number that has come out to vote in the past. The organization is going to be total bedlam and anarchy. Because so much is required in order to carry out fair and democratic elections and because so little preparation has been done we are left with one of two alternatives - the elections will either be postponed or they will be fixed. This does not bode well for the future of democracy in Egypt. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com Glenn Beck
By Micah Halpern
Sunday April 10, 2011 I'm Predicting: Wednesday's announcement that Glenn Beck will be stepping down from his 5pm cable news show on Fox is still being talked about, celebrated and bemoaned. People on the left are gleeful. They despise Beck. They hate Beck more for his ideas than for his huge numbers and viewers. Beck is not going away, he is going to new media. He will do Fox specials. And the new media he is involving himself with will reach many more people and many more young people than his 5pm show ever reached - even at his height. Beck will bring his audience to the new media and his ideas will be a much more serious force - way beyond that of the simple one dimensional flat TV screen. Much of what Glenn Beck will be doing will be done through Fox's new media division in cahoots with his media company This move is huge for Fox. Bringing a block buster into the new media will propel them into the next generation. Glenn Beck and Roger Ailes are once again demonstrating their brilliance and keen understanding of media and human nature. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Proposed Cease Fire in Libya
By Micah Halpern
Saturday April 2, 2011 I'm Predicting: The opposition in Libya, led by Moustafa Abdul Jalil, asked for a cease fire. They want to stop the fighting - under several conditions. Ghadaffi will never accept these terms, for numerous reasons. We will start to see more aggressive moves by Ghadaffi - and that will threaten the coalition. The coalition and the UN Security Council will have to make a decision about what to do after Ghadaffi escalates. This just may be a final turning of the tide for Libya, circa 2011. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Next In Libya
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 21, 2011 I'm Predicting: The UN and their forces instituted and applied the No Fly Zone over Libya. They approved strikes against Libyan targets that support the air force. And the international force has already struck Libya. Ghadaffi is far from out of the picture - actually, this maneuver by the UN played right into his hands. Ghadaffi used the international bombing to cover his own bombing of Benghazi. The more deranged the West believes Ghadaffi to be, the more mistaken they are and the more easy it becomes for the Libyan thug to carry out his plans. Ghadaffi is unstable and ludicrous. He is also very sharp and critical. He possesses the ability to understand threats and to respond. Ghadaffi evaluates his own strength and finds the weakness of his enemies. Most of all, Muammar Ghadaffi is enormously charismatic. The charisma is what speaks to the Libyan masses. It is almost impossible to tell how many Libyans are on each side in this upheaval, but it should be made perfectly clear that there are serious numbers on Ghadaffi's side ... some say far more than half. The opposition can tell us that only mercenaries side with Ghadaffi, but that seems not to be the truth and only serves to advance their motives and actions. This story is much bigger than what we are seeing and it is much more complicated with many more ramifications than we assume it to be. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Saudi Arabia is not Falling
By Micah Halpern
Monday March 14, 2011 I've Been Thinking: People are worried about what will happen if Saudi Arabia falls. There is the fear that oil will hit $300 per barrel. The truth is that people are monitoring the wrong variables and watching the wrong network. Al Jazeera is asking the question, and Al Jazeera is stoking the flames of unrest. Al Jazeera wants unrest in Saudi Arabia just like they wanted unrest in Egypt and Libya. When you look carefully at Saudi Arabia directly, you see a different situation. Look carefully at Friday March 11th. That is the day that was supposed to be a major day of protest, the day that Facebook pages proclaimed to be the day that Saudis would come out and protest en masse. And you know what - Friday was a fizzle. Maybe two hundred people came out in the Eastern town of Hofhof where much of the oil drilling infrastructure is set up. Maybe, two hundred. And then yesterday, on Sunday, there was a twelve person protest outside the Ministry of Interior. The police just watched and did nothing. But if you watched Al Jazeera it was touted as a major protest. The Saudi royal family, however, succeeded in letting people know that only a dozen people came and that the protest was peaceful. We do not have to like the Saudi royal family but we do have an obligation to tell the truth, not to exaggerate or make up stories. It is untruths that swayed the situations and fomented the masses and helped oust those other MidEast dictators. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israel's New Peace Proposal
By Micah Halpern
Saturday March 5, 2011 I'm Predicting: It is not a secret that the White House has been frustrated, even disappointed, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. When it comes to peace with the Palestinians, the White House believes that Netanyahu is dragging his feet and even sabotaging the process. When you speak to the White House they suggest that the Israelis are letting the process fail. Now Netanyahu has another chance. The prime minister is developing another peace proposal/ initiative. Honestly, the White House is not holding its collective breath. I think that this initiative will probably be one dimensional. It will focus on borders, an item that the White House knows and loves to hear about, especially the 1967 borders. Netanyahu will probably suggest broad strokes and outline a two-state solution rooted in the '67 borders. This is a big risk for Israel. Even saying the words "'67 borders" can have serious ramifications. The irony is that at this point in Middle East history, this risky move might very well be Israel's safest move. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. 2 Iranian Warships Pass Israel
By Micah Halpern
Thursday February 17, 2011 I'm Predicting: Two Iranian warships are going thru the Suez Canal on their way to Syria. Once thru the canal the warships pass right by Israel as they sail on to Syria. I have no doubt that these ships are equipped with sophisticated technology for scanning and listening. The Iranians have never been this close to Israel with such high tech machinery. I expect that Iran will attempt to brush up against Israel's territorial border in order to provoke Israel into creating an international incident. Hopefully, Israel will not be goaded into a response. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Mubarak Did Not Resign
By Micah Halpern
Friday February 11, 2011 I'm Predicting: Mubarak did not step down from office last night. Instead, while he remains in place he will begin the process of making transitions and instituting changes. Mubarak believes that the military is behind him. There was a real question as to whether the army really was behind him, but from last night's speech it appears clear that he has their backing - and he knows it. There will be riots and food shortages and fuel shortages and many, many, deaths. The army will come in and clamp down. The military will have to take charge. Omar Suleiman is an army person - as is Mubarak. Expect mayhem. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Turkish Israeli Diplomacy
By Micah Halpern
Friday December 10, 2010 I'm Predicting: Since "the flotilla" in May, relations between Turkey and Israel have been frigid. And then last week, during the worst natural disaster in Israel's history, Turkey sent teams to assist. In the interim back channel diplomatic and military relations continued between the two countries. When push comes to shove - diplomacy needs to progress. Right now - that is what is happening. Turkey is demanding an apology over "the flotilla" and Israel wants to give Turkey its regrets. Turkey wants Israel to bend and beg. Israel wants to remain upright. Apology or regrets, which shall it be? A Solomonic response is in order. The tension will probably be resolved through the use of language - different languages . Each country will say what they want and both countries will hear what they want. That's another form of diplomacy. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. US Will Put it In Writing
By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 20, 2010 I'm Predicting: P.J. Crowley, the US State Department Spokesman, said on Friday that: "We continue our discussions with the Israelis. If there is a need to put certain understandings in writing, we will be prepared to do that." Israel has said that they will not agree to temporarily suspend settlement activity until and unless the agreement and the promises given them by the United States are received in writing. It seems that the US is now willing to put pen to paper and put those commitments in written form. BUT ... I predict that this written agreement will follow a similar letter of commitment from the Bush White House to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Under Bush the agreement was written and sent in the form of a letter and printed on White House stationary. BUT ... the letter was not signed. I would guess that this letter will not be signed either. Signed or not, neither a White House letter nor even a presidential letter can be enforced as law. BUT ... it can be used to publicly shame and embarrass the administration if they break their word. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Egypt & Iran Start Direct Flights
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday October 5, 2010 I've Been Thinking: On Sunday Egypt and Iran signed an agreement to resume direct, daily flights. The agreement stipulates that 28 flights per week will go from Egypt to Iran and back. Since the 1979 Egyptian Peace Accords with Israel relations between Egypt and Iran can only be described as ugly. Then, in 1980 official relations were severed because of the Islamic revolution in Iran. Any hope for resurrecting a relationship between the countries was lost in 1981 and the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Iran went so far as to praise the assassin and name a major intersection after him. These two nations have many and serious differences of opinion - especially regarding the United States and Israel. He said: "It is a development in the relations between Egypt and Iran." If Egypt and Iran are able to smooth things over there is the potential for a shift in Middle East balance. This is more than 28 flights per week. This is a very significant move. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah The US is Pushing for Talks
By Micah Halpern
Monday September 27, 2010 I'm Predicting: It does not surprise me. Israel has resumed building in the West Bank. The United States has continued to push the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians. And the PA is saying that talks will not continue while there is settlement activity. The US is pushing the Israelis and the Palestinians very hard. The US is lobbying members of the Arab League to support Abbas in continued talks. The Arab League will meet next week to discuss how to handle the direct talks and whether or not to advise Abbas to go ahead and continue talking. The United States is telling the Arab League and Palestinians that they must compromise and accept realistic Israeli building. The United States is also begging Israel to control the building. While this compromise would work well for all sides, it is very unlikely that the parties will accept any compromise - especially a compromise that involves settlements. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Egyptian Search for Terrorists
By Micah Halpern
Sunday September 19, 2010 I'm Predicting: Egypt is combing through the northern Sinai Desert in search of Palestinian terrorists dispatched to launch rocket from into Israel. That is the news report from MAAN news service, an official Palestinian news company. What is not clear from the report is whether the terrorists have already snuck themselves and the rockets into Sinai, or if they are trying to get in. That explains the warning issued by the US Embassy/ State Department to stay clear of Eilat in Israel and Aqaba in Jordan The Red Sea area is so small that a rocket shot from the Sinai and intended for Israel can easily miss and hit Aqaba, Jordan. That is exactly what happened last month when two of four rockets launched from Sinai into Eilat instead landed in Aqaba killing a Jordanian guard. Egypt knows the danger of permitting rocket launches. Not just that it is an act of war and Israel may retaliate, but if Palestinians launch rockets without Egyptian permission from within Egypt it is also a message of Egyptian weakness and impotence - a message that is transmitted throughout the Arab world. This public humiliation will not be tolerated by Egypt. Egypt will strike back hard. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Bahrain: Internal Conflict
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday September 7, 2010 I'm Predicting: Bahrain has been cracking down on their Shiite population. The tiny archipelago country of 32 islands may be ruled by Sunnis, but Bahrain has a Shiite majority. The ruling leadership has even made it illegal for any media to cover Bahrain's Shiite power play. The Shiites are doing their best to try to slowly gain momentum and possibly, oust the current leadership. But if they push too hard -the Sunni leadership will crush the Shiite opposition. Sunni leadership in Bahrain has very close relations with the US and the West. The Shiites want to expand relations with Iran. I do not see a serious uprising on the horizon. But I do see the Shiites of Bahrain gaining more and more popularity. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Saudi Arabia and Lebanon Upset Iran
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday August 17, 2010 I'm Predicting: Iran is very possessive when it comes to friends. Iranians have been known to poach other peoples' allies and they aggressively act to protect and preserve their own friendships. Iran is very unhappy with the friendship that has emerging over the last few months between Syria and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been cultivating and investing in Syria for years and assumed that the Syrians were a reliable ally. Saudi Arabia on the other hand is a sworn enemy of Iran. And while Syria and Saudi Arabia had never been close, over the past few months they have transformed their relationship in an effort to achieve mutually important goals. The most common and important goal to bring Syria and Saudi Arabia together is Lebanon. Iran wants to control what happens in Lebanon. And it looks like Saudi Arabia is muscling in not only on Syria but also on Lebanon. I see serious regional tensions on the horizon. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah PA Complains About World Pressure
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday August 10, 2010 I'm Predicting: For the past few months Palestinian President Abbas has been complaining of the international pressure on him to resume direct talks with Israel. Abbas has been saying over and over that Arab, Muslim and Western countries have put enormous pressure on the Palestinians. Almost every world leader has been pressuring him to drop his preconditions and just begin the talks. And Abbas has not hidden the fact that, of all the world's leaders on his back, the Obama administration has been especially aggressive. Abbas thought he had Israel over the barrel - but he over played his hand, once again. When the Vice President of the United States was embarrassed during his visit to Israel, Abbas took advantage of the situation and orchestrated a scenario that brought the public tension to its peak. He created a list of pre-conditions. He convinced the Palestinian people that the preconditions were important. And the masses believed him. According to a poll taken in the Palestinian Authority, beginning direct talks would be a very unpopular decision - a decision from which Abbas may not be able to recover. But I think he has come up with a survival plan. Abbas will hold out, avoiding direct talks as long as he can, and then - he will blame his capitulation on Obama. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Bibi to Meet Obama in July
By Micah Halpern
Sunday June 21, 2010 I've Been Thinking: This meet will be a follow up to the meeting that was cancelled several weeks when the "humanitarian aid" flotilla attempted to break the Israeli blockade and enter Gaza. The White House was so grateful that the earlier meeting with Israel was cancelled that Obama gave Netanyahu an open invitation to come back at any time. At that particular time, it would have been a very difficult spin for Obama meeting with the Israeli prime minister. Israel needs to get the United States back on their page. It helps that the White House is confused about the Palestinians. The facts on the ground in the Palestinian Authority do not correspond with the image the White House is projecting. That is a problem Netanyahu can use to Israel's advantage. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Abbas Says: Don't Lift Blockade
By Micah Halpern
Sunday June 13, 2010 I've Been Thinking: When Palestinian Authority President Abbas and US President Obama met in the White House last Wednesday one major topic on their agenda was Israel's blockade of Gaza. The conversation did not progress exactly the way the president of the United States expected it would. To the surprise of Obama, Abbas is not in favor of lifting the Gaza blockade. Abbas said lifting the blockade would strengthen Hamas. He said the time was not right for lifting the blockade. This information comes from European leaders who were briefed by the White House on the Abbas-Obama talks. The Europeans reported back to the Israelis who in turn leaked it to the press. Israel's daily Haaretz published the story more as a Ripley's Believe it or Not headline than a news item. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah UN Sanctions Against Iran
By Micah Halpern
Friday June 4, 2010 I'm Predicting: Yesterday White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs announced that the United States expects that the sanctions on Iran will be presented for a vote by the UN Security Council next week. I seriously doubt that the timetable will be adhered to. Here's why: By next week the Flotilla Crisis will not be over. And China and Russia will not yet be convinced to follow the lead of the United States because they will still have serious questions with the way the US handled Israel. The question is: Why should China and Russia support the US over Iran when the US cannot control Israel. China and Russia assert that controlling Israel is a very important part of the counter Iranian game plan. When the Security Council meets next week they will discuss the sanctions. I hope that they apply the sanctions but I do not think that it will happen by next week. International diplomacy will necessitate a delay in implementation of the sanctions. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Nuke Free Middle East?
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 23, 2010 I'm Predicting: The United States and Egypt are working very hard to create a plan that will result in a nuclear free Middle East. The idea is that Arab and Muslim countries will sign on to this plan because it will, ultimately, force the Israelis to give up their nuclear arsenal. The United States is convinced that their plan can go into action even without peace in the Middle East and Egypt has bought into that objective. The truth is that it is all a pie dream and nothing more than a pipe dream. Each of these countries began their own nuclear program not because of Israel, but because of Iran. Putting Israel into the mix is a serious mistake. At this point I do not foresee any situation that will compel Israel to even entertain the idea of giving up on its own nuclear technology. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Will There Be A New Status Quo?
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday May 11, 2010 I'm Predicting: The discussion about Iran's potential nuclear weapons has generated concern that Israel's secret nuclear program will be drawn into the cross hairs of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA. Iran argues that fairness requires that Israel must be put under the microscope. The concern is that this new US vision will change the status quo of the Middle East. If the status quo changes, the safety of Israel and of the entire Middle East may be in the balance. The concern looks to be unfounded. It seems to me that despite the announcements and the pronouncements, the IAEA is not re evaluating their understanding of Israel's nuclear program. For the sake of the region and for the sake of the world I hope that the IAEA keeps away from Israel. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iraq Is Not Iran
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 28, 2010 I'm Predicting: The biggest winners in the Iraqi election are the secular parties and secular communities in Iraq. Very few people in the Western world understand Iraq. Iraq's religious leadership sees the draw backs of an extremist theocracy. At the same time they are losing their hold on the voters. One of the ways they think they can get supporters back, is to spout extremism. But so far, this plan has failed in Iraq and it will continue to fail. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran Threatens Europe
By Micah Halpern
Monday March 1, 2010 I'm Predicting: Iran is beginning to rattle sabers and threaten Europe. What can Iran do? Hussen Salami, deputy head of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard put it plainly: "Iran is standing on 50% of the world's energy and should it so decide, Europe will have to spend the winter in the cold." Fars, an Iranian national news agency, reported that Salami also said: Iran will probably not carry out their threats. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Attack in Jordan
By Micah Halpern
Saturday January 16, 2010 I'm Predicting: Al Qaeda has attacked Jordan, their target was an Israeli convoy en route from Amman to the border crossing. Al Qaeda is growing in strength in Jordan. Jordan has always acted very aggressively against al Qaeda. The Jordanian consider al Qaeda to be a serious threat to their monarchy and to their way of life. One of al Qaeda's professed goals is ousting the Monarchy of Jordan. So a failed attack directed at Israel inside the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a serious matter. Jordan will respond ruthlessly. The conflict with al Qaeda is a battle for their very survival. If al Qaeda is able to move freely, organize, train, fundraise and perpetrate attacks in Jordan it is just a matter of time before they use their infrastructure to attack and oust the monarchy. Expect a serious crackdown. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran Wants Money
By Micah Halpern
Sunday January 10, 2010 I'm Predicting: Ahmadinejad just announced the creation of a committee that will put a cash number on the damages inflicted on Iran during WWII. That's not a mistake. There is an element of truth to this claim. Iran is claiming that the invasion cost the Iranians a significant chunk - that inflation skyrocketed and the cost of essentials went through the roof. Iranians see the world differently than everyone else. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Unrest in Iran - Again
By Micah Halpern
Monday December 28, 2009 I'm Predicting: Unrest in Iran, again. The government of Iran is doing a very good job at cracking down on reportage in all media in all languages, so it is hard to get a real feel for what is happening, but ... The people of Iran have a new reason to protest, to march and to revolt. Unlike last summer's elections, mobilizing for Montazeri is perfect. The next few days will be critical. Now, we sit back, we watch, we wait. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. No Change From OPEC
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 15, 2009 I'm Predicting: On December 22nd OPEC ministers will once again meet. Assessing the comments OPEC oil ministers have made to date, it seems pretty certain that oil production will not change - there will be no scaling down and no new limits placed on oil production. Iran very much wants to jack up the price of oil and is lobbying for a reduction of quotas - but OPEC oil ministers are not easily swayed. The bottom line is that OPEC knows they cannot play with supply and demand right now. The West is addicted to oil and OPEC is the willing supplier. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran's Nuke Games
By Micah Halpern
Saturday October 31, 2009 I'm Predicting: On Thursday Iran gave a message to the IAEA in Geneva. On Thursday the Iranian press touted the response as a subtle counter proposal showcasing how Iran is in the driver's seat during these negotiations. So on Friday Iran released another counter response to counter their original counter proposal. Iran said that their message to the IAEA was just that - a message, not an official response. The Iranian news is filled with the drama. I predict that this exchange will go on and on and in the end, Iran will get almost everything they want and originally requested. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. New PA Elections
By Micah Halpern
Saturday October 24, 2009 I'm Predicting: There is conflict on the Palestinian horizon. The last time Palestinian elections were held was in January of 2006, four years earlier, almost to the date. Hamas won the parliamentary majority with 76 out of 132 seats and was able to take the prime ministry. In the end Abbas, rejected Hamas because they would not accept the 3 basic rules laid out by the Quartet. Abbas is in a lose-lose situation. Hamas just might win the election again. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Germany Helping Iran Smuggle Ammo
By Micah Halpern
I'm Predicting: Saturday, October 17, 2009 US soldiers, on patrol in the Persian Gulf, conducted a random search of a vessel owned, registered and operated by Germans - and discovered that the ship was carrying weapons. The weapons came from Iran. This is a clear violation of UN agreements that prohibit Iran from importing or exporting weapons. The vessel was packed with 7.62 mm bullets. The entire event was a huge embarrassment for Germany. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran is Setting a Trap
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday September 29, 2009 I'm Predicting: Iran is setting a trap. Iran's actions are calculated and totally predictable. After yesterday's test launch Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi put it all into perspective. Iran will walk away from the meeting with their head held high. Iran is setting a trap and the world will walk right in. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. France & Syria Conflict On Wheat
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday August 4, 2009 I'm Predicting: Syria and France are in serious conflict. This time it is all about wheat. The French have a 150,000 ton wheat deal with Syria. The result of that decision is a significant international crisis. What is happening here? France was the first Western country to extend a diplomatic hand to Syria and, in essence, to let them out of the doghouse. This situation does not portend well. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Tensions in Southern Lebanon
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday July 21, 2009 I'm Predicting: Tensions are so thick in Southern Lebanon, they are palpable. There have been clashes between villagers and the UN. Every night Israel flies over Southern Lebanon. I do not foresee a war within the next two weeks. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Friday In Iran
By Micah Halpern
Friday July 17, 2009 I'm Predicting: Friday is the day of rest for Islam. It is the day on which a special set of prayers is recited in mosques around the world. Iranians are looking forward to this Friday's sermon. Expectations are high ... but I am not expecting anything too earth shattering. Students who protested the election results have demanded that Rafsanjani "break his silence by defending the values of the revolution and clearing up the speculation surrounding him." Western coverage had us believe that Rafsanjani was a supporter of the protesters - but he was not. His daughters publicly supported Mousavi, but Rafsanjani was a fence sitter and that is a far cry from a supporter. Rafsanjani is a bitter rival of Ahmadinejad and has a very tense relationship with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran Egypt Relations Thawing
By Micah Halpern
Thursday July 16, 2009 I'm Predicting: In a very unusual diplomatic move for the Middle East, the foreign ministers of Iran and Egypt met three times this week. The Egyptian ambassador to Iran was withdrawn when, following the assassination of Anwar Sadat, the Iranians renamed a central square memorializing the assassin. Egypt believes that Iran sponsors the unrest that Hezbollah plans to unleash on Egypt. I predict that there will be an Iranian announcement about newly emerging diplomatic and economic relations between Egypt and Iran. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Abbas Is Over Playing His Hand
By Micah Halpern
Monday July 13, 2009 I'm Predicitng: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced yesterday that there could be no discussions with Israel without a complete end to all settlement activity. Abbas is not speaking figuratively. The wrinkle in Abbas' proclamation is that the White House has come to realize that not adding a single nail is not a very reasonable rationale. This new realization by the US probably comes as a result of the Israeli PM's acceptance of a two state solution. Abbas knows his demand is impossible. My prediction: Abbas has overplayed his hand, watch for some fancy footwork by the PA leader. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. PR Stunt or Stonewalling Peace
By Micah Halpern
Sunday July 12, 2009 I'm Predicting: It is no surprise that the Israeli Prime Minister's invite to meet PA President Mahmoud Abbas was declared a PR stunt by Palestinian advisers. Maybe Netanyahu is playing a PR game of his own. It disturbs Palestinians because for the first time in a long time, they have been outmaneuvered. If Palestinians were really interested in peace they would be reacting differently. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Lebanon Elections Today
By Micah Halpern
Sunday June 7, 2009 I'm Predicting: Lebanon goes to the polling booths today. These are not just any ballots being cast, this is an electoral ballot pitting Western influences against Iranian influences. In the outgoing Lebanese parliament the division was 70-58 in favor of the Western alliance. And even with that margin the Western coalition was relatively powerless to exert true control and ineffective in clamping down on Hezbollah's intimidation and terrorist acts within Lebanon. Advanced election polling makes this vote too close to call. Of course, Jimmy Carter is in place to make certain things go well. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Obama & Bibi
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 17, 2009 I'm Predicting: Tomorrow Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu will meet President Obama in the White House. Tensions may emerge during the White House meeting, but for the most part, it will probably be a pleasant experience. The leaders will express their concerns. This meeting will conclude without any real results. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Inner Palestinian Troubles
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 10, 2009 I'm Predicting: It is going to get uglier before it before it gets better for the Palestinians. Khaled Mashaal, the leader of Hamas, issued a stern warning to PA President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday. For months, using Egypt as a back door conduit, Hamas and Abbas have tried to create a unity government. These threats come only days after a rosy sweet interview Mashaal gave to the NYTimes during which he said that his movement was in favor of a cease fire with Israel and that Hamas wants to be part of the solution. Which is the real Hamas? Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Bin Laden's Plan
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 15, 2009 I'm Predicting: On Saturday Al Jazzera aired another Osama bin Laden audio tape. Osama bin Laden had two important themes to disseminate to his masses. Bin Laden has something up his sleeve. This renewed frequency in releasing audio messages is a very large change in the bin Laden MO. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. A Centrist Coalition in Israel? Maybe
By Micah Halpern
Saturday March 14, 2009 I'm Predicting: Interesting, exciting and now no longer secret meeting have been taking place in Israel. Likud has been in dialogue with Y'Israel Beitenu, Lieberman's party, and with right wing parties hoping to form a government. The parties have been making serious demands on the Netanyahu coalition. Several media outlets have reported that there have also been meetings over the past two days between Likud and Kadima - but those meetings were conducted in secret. When Labor heard about the secret Kadima meetings they thought it time to jump on the band wagon and said that they will not be able to say "no" to joining that kind of coalition - a centrist coalition. Netanyahu has received very bad feedback from the mainstream of his party about the rightwing negotiations. Now it seems that the Likud party leader is interested in moving toward the center in a three party coalition: Likud, Kadima and Labor. The talk is that there will be an uneven rotation. A right wing government will not hold. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Of Course Hamas Said No
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 1, 2009 I'm Predicting: People will continue to misunderstand Hamas even though Hamas honestly tells us who they really are and what they are about. On Saturday, after weeks of preparation, Mahmoud Abbas the leader of the Palestinian Authority finally met with Hamas leaders to discuss a Palestinian unity government. Hamas does not spin on Israel. Still, people are hopeful that Hamas will see the light. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. The Next Israeli Coalition
By Micah Halpern
Thursday February 12, 2009 I'm Predicting: After an election the president of Israel has one task: The job of the president is mostly ceremonial, but this one responsibility is enormous: Following this election there are only two possibilities: Here is the dilemma: Shas is not a right party, they are a social party interested in social services for their constituency. They have several issues that put them to the right but others that have them on the left. Shas can go both ways. Lieberman, of Yisrael Beitaynu, has already shown that he can be in a coalition with Kadima, he has done it not once but twice. The flip side is that Lieberman and Netanyahu despise one another, even though Lieberman came of political age under Netanyahu's tutelage. Netanyahu and Likud have much to gain by trying to set up the coalition, but Netanyahu is as disliked by as many members of his own party as he is by members of other parties and a lot of coalition cobbling boils down to personalities. The president will take this all under consideration. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israeli Elections
By Micah Halpern
Sunday February 8, 2009 I'm Predicting: On Tuesday elections will be held in Israel. The last polls to be made public before the elections, released on Friday, put Likud 2 seats ahead of Kadima with a degree of error of over 3 points. According to every published poll there is a 2 seat difference between Likud and Kadima. The election is in a few days. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas Will Steal From The Needy
By Micah Halpern
Saturday February 7, 2009 I'm Predicting: Hamas will continue to steal the international aid intended for the Palestinians of Gaza. Over the past week Hamas has stolen from the people more than once. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon issued a statement saying that the United Nations is suspending all aid to Gaza because Hamas stole aid destined for innocent civilians. Once again, the money pouring in to help rebuild, replenish, revitalize and feed Gaza is going straight into the coffers of Hamas. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Cease Fire Prediction
By Micah Halpern
Sunday January 18, 2009 I'm Predicting: Israel declared a unilateral cease fire as of 2 AM. Hamas has announced that they have no intention of ceasing fire. What we have here is a conflict that juxtaposes Western thinking with Middle Eastern mentality. I'm predicting that Hamas will continue to launch rockets into Israel throughout Sunday and even on Monday. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Cease Fire
By Micah Halpern
Thursday January 15, 2009 I'm Predicting: There have been positive signals about a cease fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, but we cannot read much into even those signals. Here's why: To paraphrase a Hamas spokesman: To quote him directly, in translation: Of course the list of Hamas reservations cannot be accepted. Let's get real. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Gaza Operation: The End in Sight
By Micah Halpern
Thursday January 8, 2009 I'm Predicting: Now, well into the second week of the Israeli operation into Gaza, the head of emergency services in Gaza says the death toll has reached 700 and injuries 3,100. Here are some indicators: The details will take several days to work out. A new status with a severally weakened Hamas is close. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israel & Hamas: The End Game
By Micah Halpern
Monday January 5, 2009 I'm Predicting: The clear objectives of Israel's land operation are exactly the objectives of the aerial operation. Israel's prime objective is to secure a stable, sustainable quiet. I would predict that even after an agreement or a cease fire or a "lull" there will be a series of Hamas launchings into Israel just to prove that Israel did not totally destroy Hamas' caches of rockets. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas Will Hit Back
By Micah Halpern
Friday January 2, 2009 I'm Predicting: We are coming up on one week since Israel began their operation against Hamas. Hamas has been shooting back at Israel. Today is the Muslim Sabbath. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israel Will Strike Gaza Soon
By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 21, 2008 I'm Predicting: Israel will take action against Gaza. The two questions that need answering are: It's almost impossible to track of the number of rockets that have been launched into Israel from Gaza since the "lull" between Hamas and Israel expired last week. Israel will take action soon. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah Terror in India
By Micah Halpern
Thursday November 27, 2008 I'm Predicting: For an idea of what future terrorist attacks will look like, look no further than last night's horrific terror attack in India. Islamic terrorists like multiple, simultaneous, coordinated, attacks against Western targets especially when target is civilian. All of the sites of yesterday's attacks are civilian sites. Traveling abroad and having assets abroad comes with a huge responsibility. Learning to act safely so as to protect ourselves and our property when we travel is imperative. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas is Making Its Move
By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 15, 2008 I'm Predicting: On December 16th the cease fire between Hamas and Israel ends. What makes me say that? Hamas has resumed daily rounds of rocket launchings into Israel over the past week. There are several issues at stake. Hamas may be playing their own game. If Hamas continues launching rockets into Israel the response may well be an Israeli land and air strike against Hamas in the next two weeks. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran's Economy
By Micah Halpern
Saturday October 11, 2008 I'm Predicting: I just saw a Saudi report declaring that Iran's economy was on the verge of collapse. There is little doubt that Iran's economy is in bad shape. Saudi Arabia is watching Iran very closely. Nothing would please Saudi Arabia more than to see the demise of the Iranian religious theocratic state. But Saudi Arabia can do nothing to hasten Iran's demise. The Saudis cannot stimulate a war with Iran. All eyes are on Iran economically. Look for the Iranian economy to soon move from very high inflation to a position of hyper-inflation. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Four More for Ahmadinejad
By Micah Halpern
Sunday September 21, 2008 On Friday the Ayatollah Khamenei told Iranian politicians to stop their bickering and infighting and to support the current government. That makes it the second time in two weeks that the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei, has come out with a public statement that seems to confirm that Ahmadinejad will again be elected the president of Iran. There still continues to be a hope that reformers will win over the heart and mind of the Ayatollah and wrestle his support from Ahmadinejad. We might as well get used to it. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran is Getting Worse
By Micah Halpern
Sunday September 7, 2008 I'm Predicting: Today Iran announced that they will hold elections on June 12, 2009. Also today, The Sunday Times of London printed a very disturbing report about how Russia is intensifying its nuclear assistance to Iran. The report says that nuclear materials and know how is on its way to Iran and Russia will be inviting Iranian scientists to Moscow for instruction and training. This is a strong prediction. Russia wants to turn the screws on the US and the best way to do that is by intensifying their nuclear aid to Iran. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Russia Selling to Iran
By Micah Halpern
Sunday August 31, 2008 I'm Predicting: For months I have been predicting a missile deal between Russia and Iran. My info says that the delivery of the S-300 missiles will take place in late September. The light bulb has finally gone off for the Americans. And the Russians have a plan to put the screws to the US for their involvement in Russia's world. Russia is saying to the US you mess with us we mess with you. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. About Politics
By Micah Halpern
Sunday August 31, 2008 I'm Predicting: Americans aren't the only people caught up in convention fever. The Russian leadership team of Putin and Medvedev is plotting new challenges and trials for the new US president. Iran and Russia have a very close relationship. We are looking at a potential redo of the Kruschev-Kennedy story, a conflict that nearly brought the two strongest powers in the world to war. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Will The US Stand With Israel?
By Micah Halpern
Sunday August 24, 2008 I'm Predicting: Will the United States be there for us in the event of a crisis? Israel is not alone, other US allies are asking the same question. After studying the US response in Georgia and analyzing the thinking behind the National Intelligence Estimate that suggests that Iran is not a significant threat Israel has been able to draw significant conclusions: Expect Israel to maximize the supply side of their relationship with the United States. http://www.thomasnelson.com/consumer/product_detail.asp?sku=1595550739 No Sanctions For Iran Yet
By Micah Halpern
Thursday August 7, 2008 I'm Predicting: A fourth round of sanctions against Iran will happen, but it will take some time. Churkin is suggesting that Iran has quite a bit of wiggle room. Put it all together and this is what you get: Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. About Politics
By Micah Halpern
Thursday August 7, 2008 I'm Predicting: The main issue guiding the US election right now is the price of gas. Americans are visceral people. We are highly emotional and we have knee jerk reactions for our immediate needs and wants. And right now, Americans are ticked off at the pump. The candidates are trying to put together policy but they won't succeed because neither McCain nor Obama understands the real issue. It is very simple: The price of gas will not drop to what it was a year ago, but it will drop to about $100 a barrel and level off to about $100 - $110 per barrel. I know the candidates went to the best schools we have in the country, but it would have helped had they paid attention in Economics 101. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Gazans Kill Gazans
By Micah Halpern
Saturday July 26, 2008 I'm Predicting: Yesterday there was a massive explosion in Gaza. Some have said the explosion was the result of a work accident. Hamas and Fatah will continue to attack each other. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Sarkozy's Dream Fails
By Micah Halpern
Saturday July 12, 2008 I'm Predicting: I had high hopes for The Barcelona Process: the Union for the Mediterranean,the conference that Sarkozy of France is organizing. The name of the conference is itself enough to make politicians and diplomats dizzy, but the idea sounded good. But then the Arabs said they will not pose for the group picture, that is not good. The resolution is no group pictures, only individual photos. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Olmert May Live Another Day
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday June 25, 2008 I'm Predicting: A "no confidence" vote is scheduled in the Israeli Knesset. I am not so certain. Here is the issue: If Olmert goes there must be new elections and some of those parties choosing to oust Olmert now might very well end up with fewer parliamentary seats in the new government in the next Knesset. Kadima, Olmert's party, will shrink. So, acting out of the need for self-preservation, Shas and Meretz just might be able to keep a 61 majority in place and defeat the "no confidence" vote. Olmert will probably survive to fight another day. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Conflict Brewing in the Harmuz
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday May 28, 2008 I'm Predicting: There is a serious dispute brewing in the Straits of Harmuz. Why are these islands so in demand? The Arab world is up in arms that the Persians might take control. Historically, the British controlled the islands and gave them to the precursor of the UAE. The Shah of Iran claimed the islands immediately and struck a deal with the UAE whereby the islands would be under UAE control and Iranian protection. But the deal broke down. The Iranians issued a statement yesterday claiming: "Misunderstanding between the countries, it will be resolved through bilateral talks." The status of these 3 tiny islands which, by the way, claim nearly no residents, is of huge import in the Arab world. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Syrian- Israel Peace?
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 25, 2008 I'm Predicting: Iran is perturbed by the prospect of talks between Jerusalem and Damascus. Ahmadinejad was just quoted in a London Arabic newspaper saying that anyone who joins with the enemy will be seen as the enemy and in the end will be punished. The reality is that Iran has nothing to worry about. So why is Iran so worried? Expect 3 things: Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Russia & China vs the US
By Micah Halpern
Saturday May 24, 2008 I'm Predicting: There is a new and quite popular form of diplomacy emerging. Here's an example: Medveved, the new President of Russia, and Jintao, the Prime Minister of China, released this joint statement: "the creation of global missile defense systems and their deployment in some regions of the world ... does not help to maintain strategic balance and stability and hampers international efforts in arms control and nuclear nonproliferation." They issued the statement after signing a billion dollar deal. In his first diplomatic move as president, Russia chose to join China against the United States. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. If The Qassams Don't Stop
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday May 13, 2008 I'm Predicting: Another day, another Qassam rocket lands in Israel. The clock is ticking. Hamas knows an Israeli assault is coming. Israel is sending a warning. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Arab League to Hezbollah
By Micah Halpern
Monday May 12, 2008 I'm Predicting: The Arab League has condemned Hezbollah. The Secretary General of the Arab League and the Foreign Minister of Qatar are being dispatched to Lebanon to deliver the message and try to instill some sense of order in Lebanon. Actually, Hezbollah violated their own agreement, the 1989 Taif Accords, that officially ended the civil war in Lebanon. The question is: Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. The Hezbollah Plan
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 11, 2008 I'm Predicting: Two obvious predictions about Lebanon: Hezbollah has successfully been working their militia battles and defeating the supporters of the ruling union across Lebanon. Sulieman has secured his position exactly because he has seen to it that the army did not come in to save the Sunnis and Druze coalition. The Hezbollah coup is nearly complete. And that was the objective of Hezbollah all along. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran Bans Billiards
By Micah Halpern
Monday April 21, 2008 I'm Predicting: King Louis XIV, Mary Queen of Scots, FDR, and even George Washington all loved to play it. Iran has a long list of banned behaviors. The Iranians are trying to legislate behavior and morality. So Iran is trying to block the internet by having people who use internet cafes register with the religious police. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. The Pope's Speech at Ground Zero
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday April 15, 2008 I'm Predicting: I caught an advance peak at some of the Pope's US speeches. The speech that most interested me is the Papal address slated to be delivered Sunday at Ground Zero. The Pope will pray for the terrorist murderers, he will ask that they see the light, embrace peace and convert to Christianity. All of the Pope's presentations are written out and read. Here are the exact words as written in the speech: Expect that these comments coming on the heels of the public conversion to Catholicism by Madgi Allam - one of the most famous Muslims in Europe - will ignite Muslim wrath and indignation. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas Is Using Puppets Again
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday April 1, 2008 I'm Predicting: Hamas, the people who preached murder and hatred and the total destruction of the Western World to the children of the Palestinian Authority through TV and puppets and a Mickey Mouse look-a-like are at it again. In this latest installment on Hamas educational TV a Palestinian boy meets US President George Bush. The boy shouts: "I have to take revenge with this sword of Islam." This scenario will continue to be replayed - new shows will be broadcast. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas - Fatah: No Agreement
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday March 25, 2008 I'm Predicting: The meeting being hailed as the start of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas is a farce. As Chief Palestinian Negotiator Ahmed Qureia tells it, former Deputy Palestinian Prime Minister Azzam al-Ahmed mistakenly, even absent-mindedly, agreed to put his signature on the Fatah side of the Yemeni accord. There is no way that Fatah and Hamas can or will share power. An agreement between Fatah and Hamas will not in any way advance the Palestinian cause. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Bin Ladin's New Message
By Micah Halpern
Friday March 21, 2008 I'm Predicting: Osama Bin Laden's latest audio tape is very telling. He said: "My speech is about the Gaza siege and the way to retrieve it and the rest of Palestine from the hands of the Zionist enemy." He continued: "Our enemies [Israel] did not take it [Palestine] by negotiations and dialogue but with fire and iron. And this is the way to get it back." Bin Laden is threatening war with everyone including Arab leaders and the Pope. If I were predicting I would say there will certainly be upcoming attacks in the Arab world - especially in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. There will also be attacks in Europe, in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and England. Simply put, this is the world we live in right now. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Ahmadinejad's Trip To Iraq
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 5, 2008 I'm Predicting: Ahmadinejad wrapped up a 36 hour trip to neighboring Iraq on Monday. If the conflict in Iraq should subside it will not be because Ahmadinejad was correct about the "foreigner." It will happen only because Iran stepped in and sponsored Shiite control in Iraq. If that happens it also means a wholesale massacre of Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis. To this day Iran blames the Sunnis of Iraq for the thousands of deaths resulting from the 8 Year War with Iraq. Many of those deaths were innocent farmers who were poisoned by the low flying planes Saddam Hussein used to dust Iranians with poisonous gas. Do not be misled - this was not just a long overdue social call. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Simply Put: They Lie
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 2, 2008 I'm Predicting: Human interest stories make front page news. Last week, as tensions escalated between Hamas and Israel, casualties were sustained by both sides. This week the Palestinians changed their story. We can expect that, as this conflict intensifies, the Palestinian press will fill pages with heart wrenching stories of Palestinian babies and Palestinian mothers. Most of the time the Palestinians will not be successful and their mostly fabricated gut wrenching stories will not make it to media around the world. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israel Will Invade Gaza
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday February 12, 2008 I'm Predicting: The planets are coming into alignment. The intensity of the Qassam attacks on the Israeli city Sderot is increasing. IDF leadership has begun to speak of plans to embark on a wider, prolonged Gaza campaign. Israeli military leadership is saying that Israel can and must defend the homeland and the people. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in Germany trying to get support for such an operation. The United States has already given quasi approval. I'm predicting that an Israeli military operation into Gaza is in the wings, just waiting for the right excuse to be executed. And then by land, air and sea Israel will go in and root out the terrorists. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Bahai in Iran
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday January 30, 2008 I'm Predicting: On Tuesday the Islamic regime in Iran convicted and sentenced 54 Bahai. A little background on the Bahai: The response to Tuesday's arrest is an indicator of just how much the world is moved by the persecution of the Bahai under Iran's Islamic regime. My guess is that this will be one of the only written expressions of concern. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Egypt is Nuclear Now
By Micah Halpern
Monday January 28, 2008 I'm Predicting: Egypt has announced that they will start taking bids on a new nuclear reactor. The announcement came on Saturday, bids will be taken in February. The expected cost of the nuclear reactor is between $1.5.-$1.8 billion US. Abdel Mohsen Morsi Metwalli the director of nuclear engineering at Alexandria University said "the offer is open to all countries." That means that France, Russia and Iran will bid to build the Egyptian reactor. The big question now is who will control the future of the region. The glass ceiling is about to be broken in the Middle East. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas & The PA
By Micah Halpern
Monday January 14, 2008 I'm Predicting: Hamas has set conditions in order to renew relations with Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Setting conditions for a resumption of talks is nothing new for Abbas. Abbas is once again in a bind. At this point, however, I do not foresee rapprochement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Bush's Trip to Jerusalem
By Micah Halpern
Friday January 11, 2007 I'm Predicting: The business side of the Bush trip to Israel and the Palestinian Authority is over. Today the president will spend private time at holy sites and then move on to the rest of his Mid East trip. Vis a Vis Israel: My analysis: Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran & Bush's Trip
By Micah Halpern
Sunday January 6, 2008 I'm Predicting: Iran's Foreign Ministry made a statement today about the upcoming trip of President Bush to the Middle East. Truly, the Iranians are not that far off. The Iranians have already begun to counter the Bush trip. The US will have to prove that they really know what is happening. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Mark My Words
By Micah Halpern
Thursday January 3, 2008 I'm Predicting: The Al Aqsa Brigades of Abbas' Fatah Party wants to "take it up a notch." The Brigades claims to have fired a rocket, a Bashaar 1 rocket, towards an Israeli settlement called Shaked, situated in the West Bank. It means that the main areas of Israel will all be within range of Palestinian rocket launchers. If the Al Aqsa Brigades really did launch a rocket at Israel and if they shoot any more rockets at Israel from the West Bank - Israel will retaliate with tremendous force. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran is Tendering 19 Nuke Plants
By Micah Halpern
Monday December 24, 2007 I'm Predicting: Iran has just sent out a tender - the Iranians want to build 19 new nuclear reactors. Russia has said that the Iranian plant in Busher will not be ready until winter of 2008. But Iran has just said that they will be ready enough to produce 500 megawatts of energy by March of 2008. What is Iran up to? Iran will soon put their own brand of nuclear technology on the market, selling to any group or country with enough interest and enough money. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Israel's Response to Terror
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 19, 2007 I'm Predicting: How should a country respond to the daily rocket bombardment of cities, towns and farms? Yesterday, Israel found a response. Of course, Israel could beg the Palestinians to stop launching rockets into their midst, but PA leader Abbas is powerless and has no control over his terrorists. Israel tracks and pursues terrorist leaders and cell commanders. Until there is peace between Israelis and Palestinians, until there is Palestinian justice, until Palestinian police prevent those missiles from flying into Israel, Israel will continue will continue to search out those terrorists and, one by one, to destroy them. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Casualties of Mistakes: The Worst
By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 8, 2007 I'm Predicting: There will be casualties resulting from the Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear program. The biggest casualties will probably not be suffered by Israel or Germany or France, even though they have all gone on record as disagreeing with the new assessment. They will survive. The biggest casualties will probably be in the Arab world. The Arab world supported the United States because standing alone, they do not have the fortitude to buck Iran. Uniting with a non-Muslim country against a Muslim country was an unprecedented step in the Arab world. Now the United States is sending out a mixed message. Is Iran a nuclear threat? Did the Arab world make a mistake by supporting the United States against Iran? Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. IAEA: A Fiasco
By Micah Halpern
Friday November 16, 2007 I'm Predicting: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the UN's nuclear watchdog. The report leads to much confusion. True to his style, Ahmadinejad has already grabbed on to the IAEA report. Given this IAEA report it is unlikely that the Security Council will make any headway censoring Iran. Both China and Russia will cite the report and sing the glories of Iranian compliance. The United States and Israel will not let this report just slide by pretending that all is well with Iran. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran May Backfire
By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 3, 2007 I'm Predicting: Israel and the United States are applying tremendous pressure against Iran. This newly emerging anti-American block appears to mimic the old cold war split: Russia and China on one side Until now it has been made clear by the United States that nukes in Iranian hands will very likely destabilize the world and threaten the Western interests. There are two avenues for the US to pursue if a New World split emerges: Both paths are dangerous, neither is out of the realm of possibility. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Iran's New Nuke Guy
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday October 23, 2007 I'm Predicting: Now that Iran's nuclear negotiator has resigned, Iran will become even more hard-line. Larijani was an officer in the Iranian National Guard. Those differences were revealed earlier this year when Larijani expressed dissatisfaction after the president contradicted him about attending a nuclear summit. Larijani was not in favor of attending. Ahmadinejad was. Despite his hawkishness, Larijani actually prefers negotiations. Ahmadineajd does not. So when Larijani submitted his resignation Ahmadinejad was quick to accept it. Now a relative unknown named Saleed Jalili, former deputy foreign minister for European and American Affairs will take over as nuclear negotiator. Jalili will do exactly what Ahmadinejad tells him to do. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Olmert Abbas
By Micah Halpern
Thursday October 4, 2007 I'm Predicting: On Wednesday Olmert and Abbas met for what turned out to be a realistic and very productive meeting. The Palestinian leader and the Israeli leader concluded that the United States sponsored conference to be held next month is not a goal, it is a step. Now there are rumors that the mid-November conference will be pushed off to late November. The hard part happens before the Conference even begins. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Ahmadinejad and the NYPD
By Micah Halpern
Friday September 21, 2007 I'm Predicting: Let the Iranian Mission to the United Nations say what they wish. Let me explain why: If Ahmadinejad were to drop by and get out of his car there would be a full fledged riot. Ground Zero is in the middle of downtown. The leader of Iran cannot go and leave without being seen by thousands of people who would be viscerally appalled by his very presence and repulsed by his visit. Ahmadinejad could not care less about New Yorkers or about Americans. Ahmadinejad is a brilliant media manipulator. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Olmert & Abbas Meet
By Micah Halpern
Monday September 10, 2007 I'm Predicting: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is meeting with Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The meeting is taking place in central Jerusalem at the prime minister's official residence. The main agenda item during the meeting will be a discussion surrounding the possibility of a United States sponsored peace conference, a conference both men want. A secondary agenda item will be ways to keep the calm between Israelis and Palestinians. Specifically, Abbas wants fewer roadblocks and a stop to Israel's bombing into Gaza. There was a positive sign several weeks ago when Palestinian security forces prevented the lynching of an Israeli officer who got lost and wandered into an Arab city. But Abbas has yet to prove that he is in control and that he can control security forces on the West Bank. If Abbas can take control there is a chance for the US conference. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Syria and Israel
By Micah Halpern
Sunday September 9, 2007 I'm Predicting: Syria is very upset that Israeli aircraft flew over their air space. I suspect that Syria knows exactly what Israel was doing. The big question now is: How will Syria respond? Syria will not use the chemical and biological weapons that they have already outfitted on their scud missiles. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. The Ayatollah Understands the US
By Micah Halpern
Saturday August 25, 2007 I'm Predicting: The Supreme leader of Iran, The Ayatollah Khanenei, announced that he now understands United States policy vis a vis his country. The Ayatollah said that what the United States fears most is Muslim unity. He said that all US policy is predicated upon driving a wedge between Muslims. He is wrong. Driving a wedge is a "tool" to confront a reckless irresponsible theocracy, not a goal. The goal of the US is to prevent Iran from terrorizing the region and terrorizing the world with nuclear weapons. The Ayatollah is really trying to convince other Muslims to take his side so that Iran does no have to confront the United States alone. Most regional leaders understand what The Ayatollah is doing, but the people do not. The people actually believe the conspiracy allegations. The people are always looking for a reason to lash out at the United States and fuel their hatred. The Ayatollah understands that. He has found a very sensitive chord and I believe he will continue to sound that chord. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
Civil War in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern
Monday July 9, 2007 I'm Predicting: Warning bells are ringing fast and furious in the Middle East. Question # 1: How soon? Question # 2: What's happening? Question # 3: What is the stimulus for a Lebanese civil war? Question # 4: What is Hezbollah's agenda for Lebanon? Question # 5: Will the Sunnis and Christians be successful? No matter the outcome, if there is a civil war, much of Lebanon will be destroyed. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Egypt Finds Explosives
By Micah Halpern
Saturday July 7, 2007 I'm Predicting: Islamic radicalism and terror is beginning to frighten Egypt. On Thursday the Egyptians discovered 2650 pounds of explosives hidden in 27 plastic sacks buried in the Sinai dessert. Munitions smuggling has been a major problem for Israel. Hopefully, Egypt's fear and worry will translate into real action eliminating the ability of contraband to get through - either above or below ground. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Blair Can't Do It
By Micah Halpern
Friday June 29, 2007 I'm Predicting: Tony Blair is the new peace envoy for the Middle East. Why will Tony Blair fail? The sides are handicapped. What can be done? The situation is pretty grave right now. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Hamas will Torpedo Abbas
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday June 26, 2007 I'm Predicting: The latest Sharm el Sheikh Summit is over. There are only two paths for Abbas to take in order to regain respect Hamas will try to destroy Abbas no matter which path he takes. Hamas knows that Abbas knows they are out to intimidate and destroy him. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Arabs To Yank Hamas Support
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday June 20, 2007 I'm Predicting: Arab and Muslim countries are going to begin to yank their support from Hamas. Yesterday Egypt announced that they are closing their embassy in Gaza and moving it to the West Bank city of Ramallah. Egyptian diplomats left Gaza weeks ago and their ambassador will arrive in Ramallah in the next few days. Foreigners left Gaza long ago. The Muslim and Arab world is discounting Hamas. This is very good news. Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. Style Over Substance in Iran
By Micah Halpern
Sunday June 3, 2007 I'm Predicting: A flurry of diplomatic activity surrounds Iran - good, positive activity. If the world is reading Iran correctly, confrontations between Iran and the United States and Iran and Israel would be averted. But the world may not be reading Iran correctly. Iran is changing style - not substance. There has been no shift in the national policy of Iran since the process began. Jewish Al Qaeda Californian
By Micah Halpern
Thursday May 31, 2007 I'm Predicting: Once upon a time there was a nice Jewish boy named Adam Pearlman. Adam's first 15 minutes of notoriety began yesterday when he appeared on a new video posted on an al Qaeda website making a series of threats and announcing a long list of demands. The demands were ludicrous, hilarious and threatening - all totally unrealistic. This new spokesman for al Qaeda is wanted by the FBI. We will be hearing more from this turban clad, bearded, Jewish son of California. PA Unity Break Up
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday May 16, 2007 I'm Predicting: The Palestinian Authority unity government is bound to collapse. The Mecca Accord was predicated on the idea of an independent third party interior minister responsible for the policing and safety of the Authority. He was a compromise appointment in the first place. And yet, all this week as the PA violence continues, the United States and Jordan have been pushing Israel to talk to the Palestinians. Will Olmert Resign
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday May 2, 2007 I'm Predicting: A scathing report pointing the finger of blame at the prime minister of Israel for improper decision making during the summer war with Lebanon has been released and is all any Israeli can talk or think about. Only a synopsis of the Winograd Report has been released. Why? Because that is not the way democracies work. No leader relies on ratings unless it is the eve of an election. If there is change - it will not happen before the summer and elections will only be held in the fall, after the high holidays. That is how the system works in Israel. Revolt in Iran
By Micah Halpern
Friday April 27, 2007 I'm Predicting: There will be a revolution in Iran. Iran today is speeding along on dual tracks. Iranians leadership realizes what is happening. Deputy Interior Minister Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr explained the threatening US influence in Iran in an interview with IRNA the official Iranian News Agency. I do not know precisely how involved the United States now is in Iran, I do know that previous attempts to infiltrate into politics and culture failed. Prisoner Exchange
By Micah Halpern
Thursday April 12, 2007 I'm Predicting: The Israelis have been presented with a list of people Hamas wants in exchange for the return of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas at the Gaza border. This is the way the negotiations go: This is what will probably happen: In the end, both sides will be unhappy. Unity Is Falling Apart
By Micah Halpern
Thursday March 22, 2007 I'm Predicting: Another palpable, visible breakdown in the "unity" of the Palestinian Unity Government. Hamad al Sousi, a professor at the Islamic University in Gaza, was kidnapped. Hamad al Sousi is affiliated with Hamas. Tensions between Fatah and Hamas are only going to increase day by day. Will Israel Shun the US Too?
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 21, 2007 I'm Predicting: Israel has officially shunned the new Palestinian Government. Deputy Foreign Minister of Norway Raymond Johansen just wrapped up a visit with several ministers of the new Palestinian Government. United States Consul General and Chief of Mission in Jerusalem Jacob Walles just met with the new Palestinian Minister of Finance, Salim Fayad. Will Israel shun Condi Rice and the United States Consul General? PA Unity Government
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 18, 2007 I'm Predicting: The Palestinian unity government is bound to fail. Interesting byproduct # 1: Interesting byproduct # 2: Abbas/Fatah believed that if they joined the unity government their status would raise the status of Hamas and the Palestinians. The opposite happened. Hamas has tainted. The unity government was a serious tactical error on Abbas' part. Lantos Says No To Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 7, 2007 I'm Predicting: The House Foreign Affairs Committee under the chairmanship of Tom Lantos (D-CA) has made it very clear to Secretary of State Condi Rice that funding Fatah cannot result in funding Hamas. Lantos along with Congress want to make certain that the new attempt to form a Palestinian unity government without recognizing Israel will not be rewarded. Lantos is taking it a step further. Months ago I predicted this would happen. Iran Understands
By Micah Halpern
Monday February 26, 2007 I'm Predicting: Iran has a far better understanding of the United States and of the West than the United States and the West have of Iran. Referring to the blustering of the US Vice President and other sources in the administration about US plans and options regarding Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki recently said: The Iranian foreign minister is flat out saying that internal issues and politics within the United States will dictate the foreign policy of the lame duck president. The United States will probably not invade Iran. China Speaks-Iran Listens
By Micah Halpern
Saturday February 24, 2007 I'm Predicting: Xinhu, the official Chinese news agency, reported on Friday that Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing has placed a call to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Motteki. The report emphasized that China wants to resolve the nuclear issue "peacefully." For over a year I have been hammering away on just this issue. Iran respects China. Iran needs China in the international community. China is beginning to let Iran know that they do not want a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Nasrallah Is Angry
By Micah Halpern
Saturday February 17, 2007 I'm Predicting: Hezbollah's Sheik Nasrallah is still angry with Lebanon. To recap: Both the Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a Sunni, and Nasrallah, a Shiite, have said that their red line is civil war. This is a first. The Lebanese need to be applauded for their actions and strength. Syria Convicts 9-11 Friend
By Micah Halpern
Friday February 16, 2007 I'm Predicting: Several months ago I predicted that Syria would convict Mohammad Haydar Zammer, a dual citizen of Germany and Syria. Haydar Zammer knew and associated with Mohammad Atta while in Germany. The Germans arrested him, but did not have enough evidence to try him. Haydar Zammer received a lenient sentence, he got 12 years. Syria has a strong hatred for the US and Israel. As Machiavelli said: "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." Hamas Abbas Deal
By Micah Halpern
Friday February 9, 2007 I'm Predicting: The ceasefire just signed between Abbas i.e. Fatah and Hamas will not last. Reason # 1: Hamas is not capable of recognizing Israel The specifics of the treaty itself will only briefly appear in the press, most of the coverage will deal with the implications of the deal, not with the details. I do not see them reaching the bar and fulfilling the 3 essential points the Quartet required: Recognizing Israel - Accepting previous treaties - Fighting terror. Iran in Gaza
By Micah Halpern
Friday February 2, 2007 I'm Predicting: For 18 months I have been maintaining that Iran is trying to infiltrate Palestinian culture and religious life. Most analysts disagreed with my thinking. After all, how could Shiite Iran infiltrate the Sunni Palestinian Authority? Hamas might take Iranian money and share Iran's point of view on the United States and Israel, but that was where it stopped. Well, yesterday seven Iranians were arrested in Gaza. They were student organizers at the Islamic University, a Hamas haven. One of the seven even committed suicide during the course of arrest. One was an Iranian general. Why were the Iranians at the Islamic University? To guide and to train Hamas: Iran is a much bigger player than we give them credit for. A Middle East Nuclear Arms Race
By Micah Halpern
Saturday January 20, 2007 I'm Predicting: Jordan just announced that they are planning to develop nuclear energy. For the past two years I have predicting this. No self-respecting Sunni leader can sit back and watch Iran, a Shiite Persian country, get something so powerful that it would alter the balance in the region. 90% of Muslims are Sunnis - only 10% are Shiites. There will be a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Mubarak Warns Iran
By Micah Halpern
Saturday January 13, 2007 I'm Predicting: For months now I have been saying that Iran is not loved in the region. Mubarak has fired his opening salvo. Mubarak also chastised Iran saying that the region will not let Iraq fall prey to Iran's religious extremism. To quote from the prophet Amos "I am neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet" but just watch. A Muslim Holiday
By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 30, 2006 I've Been Thinking: Every now and then I use this space to explain something not found in the news, but essential in understanding Islam and the Middle East. Around the world for the next four days Islam will celebrate the festival of Eid al Adha, literally translated it means the Feast of the Sacrifice. The holiday takes place the 10th -13th of the Islamic month of Hajji. The essence of the holiday is the story of Abraham - known in the Koran as Ibrahim, and Ibrahim's willingness to sacrifice his son Ishmael to Allah. During these 4 days Muslims are encouraged to sacrifice an animal and share the meat with fellow Muslims. Family members and friends are visited. No Muslim, especially the poor, is to go without sacrificial meat during this holiday. Eid al Adha symbolizes the great faith Ibrahim had in Allah and the covenant that Allah made with Ibrahim and Ishmael. UN Sanctions Iran, Good Luck
By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 24, 2006 I'm Predicting: It was unanimous. The key section of Resolution 1737 reads: The key reason that Resolution 1737 will have no real impact: The Resolution also requires an evaluation in 60 days. Iraq & Saudi Arabia
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 19, 2006 I'm Predicting: If the United States were to pull out of Iraq now, Saudi Arabia would step in and supporting the Sunnis of Iraq. That's not great insight - it's a fact. The Saudis cannot countenance Iran supporting the Shiites in Iraq especially when the Shiites are killing the Sunnis. The Sunnis need a sugar daddy to help them kill Shiites and the Saudis are the sweetest deal they could have. There is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis will not allow a trouncing in Iraq. So what's my point? This cannot fall into the category of the law of unforeseeable consequences. Hamas Alert
By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 16, 2006 I'm Predicting: Alert Not only because of the drive-by massacre of 3 young siblings Because Hamas has out-used its usefulness. Targeting Kids In Gaza
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 13, 2006 I'm Predicting: Osama was only 10 years old. Ahmed was only 6. Salah was 3. The kids were on their way to school in a car driven by a bodyguard. This is not about Israel. It may sound more like South America or Iraq but it is Gaza. The Flavor of the Month
By Micah Halpern
Friday December 8, 2006 I'm Predicting: The long neglected Palestinians are about to become the flavor of the month in the Muslim world. Ismail Haniyeh, prime minister of the PA, is on a four-day trip to Iran. Haniyeh's agenda is to make sure that more money keeps flowing his way. The Palestinians are playing with fire. The infighting is going to get complicated and ugly. Doomed Rapprochement
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday November 28, 2006 As a rule, cease fires only helps the terrorists. Take Lebanon Back
By Micah Halpern
Friday November 24, 2006 I'm predicting: "We are hostages of Iran Syria and Israel." But are they upset enough to reclaim Lebanon? Traditionally and historically the Lebanese are a passive people. The situation calls for more than speeches and rhetoric. Grim Future in Lebanon
By Micah Halpern
Thursday, November 23, 2006 I'm Predicting: Olmert - Rice - Bush
By Micah Halpern
Monday November 13, 2006 I'm Predicting: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in town. He is having a handful of 1-on-1's and some 2-on-1's. Several of the agenda items are important, but no-brainers. About Hamas: The problem is Hamas. Hamas does not want to talk to or recognize Israel, not the opposite. Do not think for a moment that this is about Israel's issues or best interests. Condi And Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday November 7, 2006 I've Been Thinking: Yesterday Condi Rice surprised me. In a pro-democracy forum she responded to a question about spreading U.S. style democracy when the results are antithetical to US interests. She said of Hamas: "I am not so sure that it is better to have these groups running the streets, masked with guns rather than having them have to face voters and having to deliver." Here is the problem. Those roaming the streets are not in office. What a silly and unrealistic comment about Hamas. North Korea's Rhetoric
By Micah Halpern
Sunday November 5, 2006 I'm Predicting: Be prepared - North Korean rhetoric is going to get even more and more radicalized. Here is what the North Koreans called the United States: The United States has only one real secret weapon against the North Koreans: the threat of military force. North Korea has learned an important lesson from the standoff with Iran. Missiles From the West Bank
By Micah Halpern
Thursday November 2, 1006 I'm Predicting: A communique was sent out yesterday, 4pm Israel time. It was sent by the Salah a Din Brigades of the Popular Resistance Committees. Why is this significant? Because it is a first. The official statement read: "This is a present to martyrs and their souls, to the injured and the prisoners, and it is the first step towards exterminating the Zionists through the missiles of the Palestinian resistance." The Palestinians take this very seriously. So should we. A New Trend
By Micah Halpern
Friday October 27, 2006 I'm Predicting: A new trend is emerging. Gaza is becoming like Baghdad and South America. Many kidnappings are still politically motivated and organized by terrorist groups trying to achieve a political goal - but not all. More and more we will see kidnappings perpetrated by gangs and clans interested in making a quick buck. Most of these new perpetrators/kidnappers were once part of the security system. Talk about being disillusioned. A New Islamic State in Iraq
By Micah Halpern
Monday October 16, 2006 I'm Predicting: The Mujahideen Shura Council in Iraq has just issued a video tape declaration. What is the Mujahideen Shura Council? What does the Council hope to achieve by this declaration? Does this mean that a Sunni state in Iraq will emerge? Israel Is Out Of Lebanon
By Micah Halpern
Sunday October 1, 2006 I'm Predicting: Israel has now totally withdrawn from Lebanon. Israel has been moving out of Lebanon gradually, over the past two weeks there have only been a handful of Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. The truth is: Expect further Israeli air-strikes and land incursions. Zawahiri Plays The Media Game
By Micah Halpern
Saturday September 30, 2006 I'm Predicting: Zawahiri, al Qaeda's number two released another video on Friday. Zawahiri was responding to President Bush. Zawahiri is using the media in order to manipulate the Muslim world. His objective is to convince the Muslim masses all over the world that al Qaeda is alive and strong. It works likes this: As the battle against Muslim terror intensifies we will see many more of these depictions of evil Bush - the symbol of Western leadership. Palestinian Unity: No Way
By Micah Halpern
Saturday September 23, 2006 I'm Predicting: The Palestinian Authority is painting itself into a corner. One of two things will happen: I would not put too much stock in the idea of Palestinian Unity. Palestinian Unity
By Micah Halpern
Thursday September 14, 2006 I'm Predicting: It looks like the Palestinians, Hamas and Fatah may actually be putting together a unity government. Russia and several European states are even talking about lifting their boycotts. But the biggest impediment will be 3 demands that Hamas will not accept. On the issue of accepting Israel - Hamas will let Abbas do that negotiating There has been zero change in Hamas. Ahmadinejad Will Fail
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday September 6, 2006 I'm Predicting: Ahmadinejad is at it again. He calls it a "cultural revolution undoing 150 years of secularism." But times have changed, the situation has changed. Ahmadinejad's revolt will fail. The Good Graces of China
By Micah Halpern
Thursday August 31, 2006 I'm Predicting: The only way to neutralize the Iranian nuclear crisis is to go through the good graces of China. China, that's right, China. Early yesterday Li Zhaoxing the Chinese foreign minister released a statement announcing a meeting between himself and Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister. Once again, the Chinese are telling us that there will be no sanctions taken against Iran in the UN Security Council. Kidnap Count
By Micah Halpern
Sunday August 27, 2006 I'm Predicting: Let's go over the Kidnap Count: Several things should be made very clear: Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas have reason to diffuse the situation. Actually, they think that the taking of the captives works on their behalf. The pendulum has begun to swing. No Way UN Sanctions Iran
By Micah Halpern
Friday August 25, 2006 I'm Predicting: The United Nations Security Council will not apply serious sanctions on Iran. Maybe they will censure Iran. The Security Council is split. Russia is under great pressure from the US to vote for sanctions, but it is doubtful that Russia will vote against Iran. The clincher: Both Russia and China have automatic Security Council vetoes. They Will Not Disarm
By Micah Halpern
Friday August 18, 2006 I'm Predicting: The Lebanese Army will soon be taking up positions in Southern Lebanon. Here is the problem: What does that mean: Welcome back to square one. Israel's Bold Move
By Micah Halpern
Thursday August 10, 2006 I'm Predicting: Yesterday, the Israeli Cabinet decided to extend their mandate in Southern Lebanon. Why? It looks like a bad decision. It is a given that this move further into Lebanon will mean the lives of more Israeli soldiers. Fewer Israeli citizens will die in the future because Israeli soldiers will be dying now in the fight for Israel's security and freedom from future Hezbollah attacks. Israel could have finalized their operation in the next few days. But now they are taking the opportunity to further clean up Hezbollah terrorist cells and find and destroy even more weapons. How long will this Israeli initiative go on? What Hezbollah Has
By Micah Halpern
Monday July 17, 2006 I'm Predicting: Hezbollah has a few surprises for Israel. One surprise is that they have the ability to hit Tel Aviv with weapons that have significant explosive heads. Another "surprise" is that they have is a variety of guided weapons even better than the one used to attack the Israeli Navy vessel. The definitional distinction between a rocket and a missile is that Nasrallah and Hezbollah want to hold on to some of their surprises in order to maximize their effect later on in the conflict. A 3 Front War
By Micah Halpern
Thursday July 13, 2006 I'm Predicting: Israel is now at war on two fronts. In the south, Gaza, Israel is fighting Hamas. In the north, Israel is fighting Hezbollah. Here's what is happening: A two-front war is difficult to co-ordinate and control. A third front is harder still. New War in The Middle East
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday July 12, 2006 #2 I'm Predicting: Hezbollah has been threatening to take i.e. kidnap Israeli soldiers for years. This was not terror it was an act of war. Hezbollah is much more experienced than Hamas. Kidnapping is the weapon of the future. And this might lead to another war in the Middle East Iran: Big Talkers
By Micah Halpern
Sunday July 9, 2006 I'm Predicting: Months ago Iran promised 50 million US dollars to help the Hamas government in their time of need. Today, in Teheran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki proved me right. Iran provides funding for terror attacks, that's where they put their money. Iran is a country of bravado - talk big, move slowly. P.S. Also today, Iranian President Ahmadinejad said that the Zionist entity must be removed. We'll see ... Depose Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday July 5, 2006 I'm Predicting: Israel's coastal city of Ashkelon was hit by a rocket/missile yesterday. Israel has one option: Israel must respond. Israel must advance on ground efforts in Gaza. Syria Helping The PA
By Micah Halpern
Friday June 16, 2006 I'm Predicting: Syria is calling on Hamas to recognize Israel. Syria does have credibility with Hamas and it is on the basis of that credibility that the request to recognize Israel is being made. Taking it a step further, Syria even wants Hamas to accept the Saudi Peace Plan. Syria is trying to instruct Hamas in the Lessons of Leadership. These ideas are truly awesome. The Prisoner's Document
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday June 7, 2006 I'm Predicting: Last week I predicted that the Palestinian Referendum would be postponed and voila, Prime Minister Abbas has pushed the referendum off 'til the week-end. The Referendum is officially named the National Reconciliation Document but because it was composed by five Palestinians imprisoned in Israel's Hadari prison, the Palestinian press has dubbed it the Prisoner's Document. The document has 18 points. For the Palestinians it will be the beginning of the end of Hamas in power. Palestinian Civil War
By Micah Halpern
Monday June 5, 2006 I'm Predicting: Hamas is losing it's lead - politically, militarily, economically, socially. Student government elections in several Gaza colleges, divisions of al Quds University, gave Fatah 70% of their vote. Last year that same 70% went to Hamas. Student elections in West Bank universities gave Fatah the same lead. Shootouts between Hamas and Fatah are routine, daily occurrences. Innocents, like a pregnant woman in one of the latest clashes, are being killed in the cross fire. Fatah is putting its military on alert. Hamas is appointing new police. Tuesday's referendum deadline is almost here. There might be a chance for an extension, but little to no chance of a compromise. The internal Palestinian situation is looking bad for Hamas. The worse it gets for Hamas, the closer the Palestinian Authority gets to civil war. A Civil War By Any Other Name
By Micah Halpern
Thursday June 1, 2006 I'm Predicting: "There will never be a civil war because the term doesn't exist in our lexicon, the lexicon of Jihad." That's a quote from an interview that Palestinian Foreign Minister Ismail Haniyeh gave to the Iranian News Agency (IRNA). Well I have a linguistic and historical surprise for Haniyah. And just look at contemporary history. From 1991 and 2002 100,000 Algerians were killed in a Muslim civil war. Iraqis killed Iranians. The list goes on. Hamas and Fatah are killing one another on a daily basis and the numbers will just continue to rise. Too much is at stake. Compromise is not in the cards. Palestinians Can't Unite
By Micah Halpern
Monday May 29, 2006 I'm Predicting: The talks taking place between Hamas and Fatah Palestinian factions will probably end with a short term agreement - but in the end that agreement will not hold. Why will the agreement never hold? For example: As Abbas is arranging for Hamas to sit down with him in an intense ten-day negotiation marathon, fighting still continues in Gaza between the factions. Even better: Palestinian Foreign Minister and Hamas-member-in-good standing Mahmoud al Zahar just cancelled his participation in a Muslim conference in Malaysia. Hamas cannot recognize any option other than their own. Hamas trusts no one, nobody, nothing - other than Hamas China Is Getting Involved
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday May 24, 2006 I'm Predicting: For a year now I have been shouting that China is key. I have been shouting that the situation in Iran will be controlled only when China decides to get involved. Why do I say that? China knows what to do. US Unable to Influence Iraq
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday May 23, 2006 I'm Predicting: The United States will not be able to influence the new democracy in Iraq. The signs are all there and flashing. The official US response to Iraq's joining the Israel boycott was: This past year Israel had a 40% increase in trade with Iraq which translates to an increase of about $300,000. But trade with Iraq could be much more significant. Near Civil War in PA
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 21, 2006 I'm Predicting: The Palestinians are closing in on a civil war. Pressure is building. Stakes are rising. Tensions are escalating. Over the past week there have been two intercepted attempts on the life of Palestinian President Abbas. This was not the first attempt on the life of Abu Rajab. Palestinians assassinating Palestinians. Putin & Abbas
By Micah Halpern
Sunday May 14, 2006 I'm Predicting: Next week Russian President Vldamir Putin will host Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority. The main topic on their agenda is aid to the Palestinians. This mission will fail. The Palestinians have their own resources but have chosen not to dip in yet and help themselves out. They have $1.3 billion in accounts and could easily draw several hundred million in interest without touching the principle. Palestinians take - they do not give. Hamas Might Win
By Micah Halpern
Thursday May 11, 2006 I'm Predicting: The international campaign to isolate Hamas is about to collapse. Pressure is being placed on Israel to take responsibility for the dire situation in the Palestinian Authority. The international community is warning Israel that if they do not intercede on behalf of the Palestinian people they will be held accountable for the devastation. Israel is crumbling under the pressure. Plans are underway to send medical aid. The proposal is being formulated by Amir Peretz, the new defense minister and head of the Labor party. The plan is to quickly transfer $11 million to the Palestinians. The cabinet will vote on the proposal on Sunday. If Israel determines that there is a real need that need should be met "in kind." If Israel collapses, so will the rest of the world. The End of Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Saturday May, 6, 2006 I'm Predicting: The outcome of student elections often predicts the results of national elections. In both cases Fatah won. The pendulum might actually be swinging back toward the middle in the Palestinian Authority. It looks as if Hamas is beginning to lose luster in the eyes of the Palestinian people. I am predicting that Hamas will have an ugly end in politics. Egypt: The Power in The Middle East
By Micah Halpern
Friday April 21, 2006 I'm Predicting: Egypt is a country to be reckoned with in the Middle East. Right now, however Egypt is embarking on two futile attempts to reconcile Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. Egypt is trying to get Israel to meet with Abbas. Egypt is trying to get Hamas to accept the 2002 Arab League Peace Plan that recognizes Israel within the pre-1967 borders. Right now, Egypt's agenda is to exert enormous amounts of pressure on Hamas to get them to change. Hamas Can't Spin
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday April 18, 2006 I'm Predicting: Hamas called it a "legitimate act of self defense." These Hamas statements do not surprise me. Hamas knows that they must not be seen as a terrorist government if they want to receive the financial assistance that the Palestinian Authority so crucially needs. Hamas will not change, they will dig themselves deeper and deeper into the abyss - financially, politically, diplomatically. Hamas is Not Mohamed
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday April 12, 2006 I'm Predicting: Six members of the new Palestinian Parliament are in Iran right now. They are trying to get Iran and then the entire Muslim world all fired up about negative world reaction to Hamas and the resulting plight of the Palestinians. It's not going to happen. But they will settle for less. If Hamas can shape the entire package as an anti-West campaign, if they can present the West as out to destroy Islam, the mission to Iran may have some success. The Music Returns to Israel
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday April 11, 2006 I'm Predicting: Israel is returning to normalcy, or as they call it, status quo. Look at the musical tours scheduled to hit Israel over the summer. For those not in the know - this is huge. Why is this even important? It demonstrates that world class entertainers believe that Israel has returned to normalcy. It means that the long hot days and nights of the Israeli summer will be filled, once again, not with fear and tragedy but with laughter, culture and great music. That's the real Israel, great culture, great life, great creativity, and savoir faire. Israel is about life and not about death. Hamas vs Fatah
By Micah Halpern
Friday April 7, 2006 I'm Predicting: Tension is high in the ranks of Palestinian leadership. Mahmoud Abbas, president and leader of the PLO, just appointed his loyal ally Rashid Abu Shbak, as head of security forces. Abbas is isolated. He has very little power but is issuing presidential laws and acting on them. He wants to create a counter balance to the Hamas-led parliament which falls under the jurisdiction of Haniyeh. Does Abbas have a chance at succeeding? He has a small and viable chance. Members of the security forces hold allegiance to Abbas and Fatah and would have difficulty following Hamas orders. If Hamas attempts to use force in order to take over, all three security forces may strike back. Expect violence and gun fights on Palestinian streets as this is worked out. Terror Tactics
By Micah Halpern
Saturday April 1, 2006 I'm Predicting: Thursday's suicide bombing in Israel was planned and perpetrated by Fatah's al Aksa's Brigade. The terrorist dressed up as an ultra orthodox Jew who was hitch-hiking. The driver thinking someone needed help, did not think twice about lending a hand. This was not the first time terrorists disguised themselves as ultra religious Jews. The difference is that this time the terrorist got very close - so close that he was in the car with his "enemies" and waited about ten minutes before detonating himself and killing everyone in the vehicle. We know this tactic. Terrorists use disguises. The better the disguise, the more successful the attack. The Real Winners
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 29, 2006 I'm Predicting: The big winners and losers in Israel's election are obvious. Why is Avigdor Lieberman such a big winner? Why is Rafael Eitan such a big leader? More than Olmert, more than Peretz, a retired spy and a former security guard will be setting the agenda for Israel's future. Keep your eye on these two - they are wily. Israeli Polls Are Lie
By Micah Halpern
Saturday March 25, 2006 I'm Predicting: The polls for the Israeli elections on Tuesday will be off - really off. Here's why: There will be a very low (only about 60%) voter turnout. A large portion of people who responded to polls will not go to the voting booth even if they say they will. Kadima, the leading party, is brand new. All party numbers have been seesawing these past few weeks. 20% of Israelis are still undecided. They will not swing the winner's place, but they will affect the number of parliamentary seats. Without polls we know one thing for sure - Kadima will win. China Pres Will Meet Bush
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 23, 2006 I'm Predicting: Big news. Hot off the press. This is not an official state visit. The US agenda for this little tete a tete is: terror, Iran and North Korea, and human rights. The Chinese agenda is one single issue: more export to the United States. China is the only country that the United States still sees as a serious threat. China is impervious to US pressure. Hamas' Goal
By Micah Halpern
Sunday March 19, 2006 I'm Predicting: "We and the Zionists have a date with destiny." That was the comment of Khalad Mashal, the chief of Hamas' politburo. Mashal is the most senior political leader within Hamas. "Being in power is only a means to an end for Hamas." "Power is not our ultimate goal." "If it becomes one, let power go to hell. It will not hold us back from our targets which we hold dear." It is their raison d'etre. To think otherwise is to be deceived. And it will all start with Japan. Iran & the Security Council
By Micah Halpern
Thursday March 9, 2005 I'm Predicting: The United States is talking about presenting Iran before the UN Security Council for discussion, pressure, censure. Yesterday, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns testified before Congress saying that the by next week the Security Council will deal with Iran. The United States may want to turn up the pressure, but the United States has never been good at reading or understanding Iran. In that Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council they have veto power. If Russia doesn't want something to happen, it's not about to happen. Iranian Syrian Nexus
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday March 8, 2006 I'm Predicting: A recently issued press release from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)touted a series of projects to be jointly run by Iran and Syria. The projects included joint oil and gas pipelines and a link-up of electricity lines and railway lines. Why is this interesting? This is a brilliant tactical response. Iran and Syria are perfect partners against the West. Showdown in DC on Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Friday March 3, 2006 I'm Predicting: There is going to be a showdown in Washington. The United States has already declared that it will be "NO DEAL" with Hamas. They have demanded the return of $50 million that was improperly allocated. $30 million has already been returned. $20 million more is on the way. And yet, official US spokespeople and political appointees are talking about granting aid to the Hamas-led PA in the form of humanitarian gifts. Secretary of State Condi Rice proclaims that US money cannot go to the Hamas-led PA and then slides right into a statement about a Palestinian aid project that must be supported - like immunizations. Members of The International Relations Committee of the House were livid at the responses they got when they heard State Department testimony describing the status of funding for Hamas. No More Money for Hamas
By Micah Halpern
Monday February 20, 2006 I'm Predicting: Last month, Israel turned over $43 million to the Hamas led Palestinians. Israel has also begun a campaign to isolate Hamas. This campaign is neither covert nor subtle. Israel has a very good set of reasons to isolate Hamas. Reality has set in, not just for Israel but for other Western nations. Significant Western nations, including the US, will not be so quick to sever all financial ties with Hamas i.e. the Palestinians. Ever here the phrase: Put your money where your mouth is. Hamas Gets Blessings
By Micah Halpern
Saturday February 11, 2006 I'm Predicting: British Foreign Minister Jack Straw has reassured English Parliament, the Palestinian people and Palestinian leadership that: "none of us have any interest whatever in, as it were, punishing the Palestinian people for giving the wrong answer in the elections ..." Thank you, Jack Straw, for putting your cards on the table. I am predicting that most of the European Union will follow suit. Congress is still waiting. Hamas Will Declare A State
By Micah Halpern
Thursday February 2, 2006 I'm Predicting: People have a total misunderstanding of the Palestinians Authority. The United States was the most influential party in Palestinian politics pre-Hamas victory. The reason there is no State of Palestine today is because the US said it would not recognize the state unless several conditions were met - like clamping down on terror and working with Israel to find some rapprochement. Now Bush says it is up to Hamas. He still maintains that the US will not recognize the PA if Hamas does not put down its arms, change its charter and recognize Israel. Bush said: "I have made it clear that so long as that's their policy, that we will not support a Palestinian government made up of Hamas." Hamas probably does not want to be part of any club that includes the US of A. Thinking otherwise is another in the growing list of big Western miscalculations. Palestinian Civil War
By Micah Halpern
Saturday January 28, 2006 I'm Predicting: Tensions will rise in the Palestinian Authority. The tables will be turned. Had Abbas disarmed Hamas they would never have won the elections. Hamas only had a few thousand men with arms in Gaza and just over a thousand in the West Bank. Hamas: No Hope, No Future
By Micah Halpern
Friday January 27, 2006 I'm Predicting: Hamas just trounced Fatah in the PA elections. No surprise. Get ready for a new Palestinian Authority under Hamas. There is no going back. For the West it is a huge step backward - there were high hopes for this election. For Israel there is a clear read on the desires and beliefs of their neighbors. Cheney Visit to Mid East
By Micah Halpern
Monday January 16, 2006 I'm Predicting: Vice President Cheney is on a trip to visit Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Here's why: Egypt and Saudi Arabia have already been enormously cooperative on the issue of terror intelligence and information and they have already pressured Syria. Good luck. The PA Will Cancel Elections
By Micah Halpern
Thursday January 12, 2006 I'm Predicting: There is almost no doubt in my mind that the Palestinian Authority will postpone their upcoming parliamentary elections. I have been saying this for 6 months. Why? Most important is that Fatah, the established Palestinian leadership, is having a hard time getting votes and it looks very doubtfully that they can win a significant plurality over Hamas. Fatah does not want Hamas to win. Current PA leadership is paralyzed. They need the time to gain support by promising a safer future, by providing social services and by providing jobs. After Sharon
By Micah Halpern
Friday January 6, 2006 I'm Predicting: One of the beauties of a stable democracy is a non-threatening process of succession. Neither the society nor the foundations upon which it is built are at risk of collapse. The fact that most observers and many pundits do not know who the players are and are therefore making bizarre pronouncements concerning possible successors to Ariel Sharon is to be blamed on the fact that they cannot see past their own superficial perceptions and analysis. Sharon will be missed. The March elections guarantee that. A look at the polls underscores my point. The realistic centrist movement that Sharon created will not evaporate. Sharon's Health
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday January 4 2006 #2 I'm Predicting: The health - or ill health - of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon must be measured in gargantuan terms. If poor health forces Sharon out of politics, the entire Middle East will spin. Indian Terror Threat
By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 31, 2005 I'm Predicting: Bangalore is the Silicon Valley of India. Bangalore is under a huge terror threat. India suffers from two terror threats. High tech and computer software will not help them fight terror. Abbas & Hamas Land
By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 25, 2005 I'm Predicting: Rumors abound about Abu Mazen, the head of the Palestinian Authority. Abu Mazen has hit an all time low. Internal Palestinian sources describe intense frustration. They describe how Abu Mazen avoids difficult issues. What happens if Abu Mazen does leave his position and politics? Sharon's Stroke
By Micah Halpern
Monday December 19, 2005 I'm Predicting: Ariel Sharon had a mild stroke. How does it play out? It changes everything It changes everything if it is serious and sidelines him. It changes nothing because he will probably recover totally. As for Arab countries in the region they have yet to make sense of this new Sharon, now they are all the more confused. PA Wants To Delay Elections
By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 17, 2005 I'm Predicting: Palestinian Authority leadership is going to want to delay the Parliamentary elections that are scheduled for January 25, 2006. The PA has suffered some serious popularity setbacks. This is a huge blow to the success of Fatah, the military arm of the PA, and to the PA itself. Internal struggles are also compromising the strength of Fatah and the PA. The PA will try to push off the elections so that they can buy more votes by stepping up their social services and gain in popularity. Hamas and the Fatah Young Guard have already organized rallies against a delay in elections. Some Fatah Young Guard members, weapons in hand, took over a Fatah headquarters to protest any delay. The situation is tense. Tensions will continue to escalate. Palestinians Sue Israel
By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 11, 2005 I'm Predicting: Avi Dichter, the former head of the "Shin Bet," Israel's Secret Intelligence Agency, has been served with papers in a civil suit in the United States. The plaintiffs are the families of 14 Palestinians who claim that Dichter, in his role as director of the Shin Bet, was responsible for the death of their loved ones. Specifically, a one ton bomb dropped by the Israeli Air Force in July of 2002 that hit its mark, a building that housed Salah Shehedah, a senior Hamas leader. The case is based on international law under the Torture Victims Act and the US Alien Tort Claims Act to apply jurisdiction in the US. Here is the problem: This will not hold up in court. No way. Oman May Open To Israel
By Micah Halpern
Thursday November 24, 2005 I'm Predicting: Oman will be making a change in diplomatic policy. When it happens, Oman will be the latest in a slew of Gulf nations to re-evaluate their diplomatic status with Israel, once their sworn enemy. Jordan, Egypt and Mauritania are the "Exclusive 3" as of today. Bahrain, Qatar and Dubai have already begun to warm up their relations. I predict a big thaw this winter season. PA Elections--Postponed
By Micah Halpern
Sunday November 20, 2005 I'm Predicting: Elections within the Palestinian Authority, scheduled for January 25, 2006, will almost certainly be postponed. Why will they be postponed? The excuse is that Israel is interfering with the election process. The real reason is that postponing the Palestinian Authority legislative elections is actually better in the long run, postponing the elections will help bolster the PA. If handled properly, it will give Palestinian leadership the opportunity to convince the people that they have a future - and the future need not include terror. New Elections-Sharon Will Win
By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 19, 2005 I'm Predicting: There will be early elections in Israel - late February early March. Why? Because Amir Peretz, the new head of the Labor party, has forced the process. So this week the Knesset will vote to dissolve itself. Honestly, this is a no-brainer. There is no personality on the stage of Israeli politics capable of competing with Sharon. Sharon will win the swing vote and, in Israel, the swing vote determines the election. Osama's Hit List
By Micah Halpern
Thursday November 10, 2005 I'm Predicting: This will not be the last terror attack in Jordan. Osama bin Laden recently released his hit list, prioritizing al Qaeda targets. Topping the list was removing the US and other infidels from Muslim lands. Jordan is seen as a collaborator. The attacks in Jordan come straight out of the Terrorist Handbook. Hamas' New Home
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday November 8, 2005 I'm Predicting: Hamas and Islamic Jihad might actually be expelled from Syria. The once unthinkable might actually happen. So where will the terrorists go? So they will go elsewhere. Where? Hit Gaza Hard
By Micah Halpern
Friday October 28, 2005 I Am Predicting: Israel will continue to hit Gaza very hard after terrorist attacks - even when the attacks against Israel are not directly fired out of Gaza. Why? Because the terrorist attack in Hadera has been clearly tied to Islamic Jihad and the command centers of Islamic Jihad are located in Gaza and in Damascus. Because now that Israelis are no longer in Gaza, Israel has no fear of reprisals against her own citizens and so will continue to bomb from the air in order to try and teach Islamic Jihad a lesson. As a result of Israel's persistent response to terrorist activity, pressure will mount urging Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas to act against terror. US OK'S Hamas - Blunder
By Micah Halpern
Friday October 21, 2005 I've Been Thinking: The long anticipated meeting is over. The tension is over. Because Muhamad Abbas walked out of the meeting with George Bush smiling. Have George Bush and his foreign policy team lost their vision? I'll tell you what happened. The United States believes that the anti-Hamas stance is Israel's platform. The US believes that it must show flexibility and not be seen as rubberstamping Israel's perspective on Hamas and on internal Palestinian politics. Better to sell out than to rubberstamp. The United States is wrong. PA Will Pospone Elections Again
By Micah Halpern
Tuesday October 11, 2005 I'm Predicting: Palestinian Authority Parliament elections scheduled for January will probably be postponed - again. Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas were supposed to meet today. They did not. No Surprise there. Abbas cannot meet. He has nothing to offer, he only has demands. If Abbas leaves the meeting with nothing he is a failure. Sharon is not going to give much more until there is Palestinian quiet and that requires time and energy and organized attacks against Hamas. Not likely. Abbas cannot bring himself to crack down other than some token gestures. He hopes that the momentum will naturally shift in his direction. Palestinian police are out but not in force and even incapable of protecting themselves. PA Will Crack Down
By Micah Halpern
Saturday October 8, 2005 I'm Predicting: The Palestinian Authority is about to crack down on Hamas. A little. Why? And why just a little? Abbas has learned well from Arafat his predecessor. He knows that the best way to advance his standing in Washington and to relieve diplomatic pressure while there is to offer the US a token action. This superficial attempt to crack down on Hamas is just what the United States and Israel have been begging him to do. He'll arrive in Washington with what looks like a plan, he'll be lauded and applauded and patted on the back. Then he'll return home and everything will go back to normal. The plan worked for Arafat, time and time again. In order to truly advance the diplomatic process Palestinians must disarm Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Not a little. A lot. Powered by Movable Type Site design by Sekimori
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