Thursday August 7, 2008
I'm Predicting:
A fourth round of sanctions against Iran will happen, but it will take some time.
Contrary to news reports, it is not on the horizon for the next few weeks.
The best evidence for my prediction comes from statements made by the Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin.
Chyrkin said: "We haven't set any deadlines ourselves for their response and there is ongoing dialogue."
Churkin made it very clear that the issue of further sanctions against Iran has not even been raised yet in the Security Council.
Churkin said: "There have been no firm agreements or understandings or any kind of concerted work in this regard."
Churkin explained his statement by saying that it is unclear if the six critical countries even see eye to eye on the deadline for an Iranian response.
Churkin is suggesting that Iran has quite a bit of wiggle room.
France has said that the Iranian answer is incomplete.
The United States has said that the Iranian answer is unsatisfactory.
Put it all together and this is what you get:
Russia is holding out to give Iran more time.
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Thursday August 7, 2008
I'm Predicting:
The main issue guiding the US election right now is the price of gas.
Call it energy policy if you prefer fancy wording - but bottom line, everything else pales in comparison.
Americans are visceral people. We are highly emotional and we have knee jerk reactions for our immediate needs and wants. And right now, Americans are ticked off at the pump. The candidates are trying to put together policy but they won't succeed because neither McCain nor Obama understands the real issue.
It is very simple:
Gas is to expensive.
Prices went way too high.
Now people are cutting back, there is a surplus and prices are coming down. And prices will continue to come down even more.
Add that to the increased supply that OPEC just agreed upon and the price will drop even more.
The price of gas will not drop to what it was a year ago, but it will drop to about $100 a barrel and level off to about $100 - $110 per barrel.
That should bring the pump price down to $3.10 - $3.20 a gallon.
I know the candidates went to the best schools we have in the country, but it would have helped had they paid attention in Economics 101.
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Saturday July 26, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Yesterday there was a massive explosion in Gaza.
Five people were killed, fifteen were injured.
Among the dead were senior leaders of Hamas and a young girl who happened to be in the area.
Some have said the explosion was the result of a work accident.
But immediately after the explosion Hamas suggested that Fatah was responsible.
Tensions are mounting in Gaza and this time the tensions are internal not external.
Hamas and Fatah will continue to attack each other.
They will attack each other verbally.
They will attack each other physically.
They will take every opportunity to swipe at each other.
In this war, the end is not near.
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Saturday July 12, 2008
I'm Predicting:
I had high hopes for The Barcelona Process: the Union for the Mediterranean,the conference that Sarkozy of France is organizing.
That changed when details of the conference started to emerge.
The name of the conference is itself enough to make politicians and diplomats dizzy, but the idea sounded good.
Gathering the leaders of 27 members of the European Union, plus 10 Arab leaders, plus Israel sounded good.
Potential problems - like seating, were easily resolved, that sounded good.
OK, so no one wanted to sit next to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, so they sat everyone in alphabetical order by country with Israel in between Ireland and Italy, that sounded good.
But then the Arabs said they will not pose for the group picture, that is not good.
The organizers proposed to put Olmert on one end and all the Arabs on the other end so that Olmert could be cropped out or photo shopped out without it being obvious, that is not good enough.
The resolution is no group pictures, only individual photos.
For me, that is a true indicator.
Nothing will come about from these sessions.
Sarkozy, you tried.
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Wednesday June 25, 2008
I'm Predicting:
A "no confidence" vote is scheduled in the Israeli Knesset.
The vote has been touted as a no brainer. A slam dunk, the end of Olmert.
I am not so certain.
Out of the 120 seats in Knesset, 61 must vote in favor of "no confidence."
Last week it seemed that the no confidence group had the majority.
But in Israel, things are never simple.
Here is the issue: If Olmert goes there must be new elections and some of those parties choosing to oust Olmert now might very well end up with fewer parliamentary seats in the new government in the next Knesset.
Kadima, Olmert's party, will shrink.
Labor and Likud, the other large parties, will probably gain.
But Shas and Meretz will probably shrink, too - actually, they might even shrivel.
So, acting out of the need for self-preservation, Shas and Meretz just might be able to keep a 61 majority in place and defeat the "no confidence" vote.
Olmert would remain in place.
The Olmert government would lose several Knesset seats in his majority after firing Labor ministers now in his government who voted against him.
Olmert will probably survive to fight another day.
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Wednesday May 28, 2008
I'm Predicting:
There is a serious dispute brewing in the Straits of Harmuz.
Exactly half way between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are three Islands - the largest is called Abu Musa, next is Greater Tunbs and the smallest island is Lesser Tunbs.
Both Iran and the UAE claim sovereignty over these three islands.
Why are these islands so in demand?
Resources - the islands have enormous oil reserves.
Location - the islands sit smack in the middle of the Straits which means control over the entire Persian Gulf.
The Arab world is up in arms that the Persians might take control. Historically, the British controlled the islands and gave them to the precursor of the UAE. The Shah of Iran claimed the islands immediately and struck a deal with the UAE whereby the islands would be under UAE control and Iranian protection. But the deal broke down.
The Iranians issued a statement yesterday claiming: "Misunderstanding between the countries, it will be resolved through bilateral talks."
The status of these 3 tiny islands which, by the way, claim nearly no residents, is of huge import in the Arab world.
The conflict may soon turn into an explosion.
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Sunday May 25, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Iran is perturbed by the prospect of talks between Jerusalem and Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was just quoted in a London Arabic newspaper saying that anyone who joins with the enemy will be seen as the enemy and in the end will be punished.
This is the same response he had only last month when the rumors began spreading about Turkey running messages between Israel and Syria.
The reality is that Iran has nothing to worry about.
Syria is not interested in peace.
Syria is only interested in the Golan Heights.
Syria is saying yes to Turkey to make it clear that they lay claim to the Golan.
This is exactly what the Syrian ambassador said on Al Manar, Hezbollah TV.
So why is Iran so worried?
Iran needs to make certain that Syria is not cut lose and becomes a free agent. Iran has too much to loose if that happens.
Expect 3 things:
# 1: Increased pressure on Syria
# 2: Increased anti-Israel rhetoric from Syria and Iran
# 3: No peace process with Syria
So, what else is new?
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Saturday May 24, 2008
I'm Predicting:
There is a new and quite popular form of diplomacy emerging.
I call it Back To The Future Diplomacy.
Here's an example:
China and Russia are uniting for mutual benefit - and to attack the United States.
They have joined forces to condemn the US missile defense system saying that it is detrimental to the world effort to stop nuclear weapons development.
Medveved, the new President of Russia, and Jintao, the Prime Minister of China, released this joint statement: "the creation of global missile defense systems and their deployment in some regions of the world ... does not help to maintain strategic balance and stability and hampers international efforts in arms control and nuclear nonproliferation."
They issued the statement after signing a billion dollar deal.
The deal is for Russia to build a uranium enrichment factory for China.
Russia is to also supply low enriched uranium for the already existing Chinese nuclear program.
Double standard, wouldn't you say.
In his first diplomatic move as president, Russia chose to join China against the United States.
Expect to see many more such diplomatic moves and maneuvers.
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Tuesday May 13, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Another day, another Qassam rocket lands in Israel.
Islamic Jihad in Gaza has claimed responsibility for a Qassam that killed a 70 year old woman as she visited her sister who had come to visit from abroad.
The clock is ticking.
Olmert and Barak both met with General Omar Sulieman, head of Egyptian intelligence, on Monday, in a last ditch effort to avert a serious military assault on Gaza - an assault that will put a short term stop to the unending barrage of Qassam rockets into Israel and cause serious damage to Hamas.
Hamas knows an Israeli assault is coming.
Hamas is preparing.
Israel is preparing to make certain not to fall into the same trap as Southern Lebanon did two summers ago.
Israel is sending a warning.
Two Israelis have been killed by Qassam rockets in the past three days.
If the Qassams do not stop, Israel will respond and respond with power.
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Monday May 12, 2008
I'm Predicting:
The Arab League has condemned Hezbollah.
In a meeting held in Cairo the foreign ministers of 22 Arab countries declared that Hezbollah is wrong to violently conduct attacks in Lebanon against the Lebanese government and government supporters.
The Secretary General of the Arab League and the Foreign Minister of Qatar are being dispatched to Lebanon to deliver the message and try to instill some sense of order in Lebanon.
Actually, Hezbollah violated their own agreement, the 1989 Taif Accords, that officially ended the civil war in Lebanon.
The Accords said that Hezbollah would only fight in defense from the occupation (Israel) and not turn weapons on other Lebanese within Lebanon.
Certainly, the Arab League will formally remind Hezbollah of the content of the Taif Accords, but Hezbollah knows exactly what Hezbollah is doing.
The question is:
Does the Arab league have any desire to exercise power and influence, will the Arab League force Hezbollah to back down?
The answer is:
I doubt it, but at least they are sending a delegation.
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Sunday May 11, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Two obvious predictions about Lebanon:
It will get worse before it gets better.
Hezbollah will not step aside on its own.
Hezbollah has successfully been working their militia battles and defeating the supporters of the ruling union across Lebanon.
And the army has not gotten involved.
The Head of the army, Michel Sulieman, is the presumptive next leader of Lebanon in a compromise.
Sulieman has secured his position exactly because he has seen to it that the army did not come in to save the Sunnis and Druze coalition.
It was Hezbollah that did not want Sulieman to intervene and now he strategically forged a bond by not stepping in to save the democratically elected government.
The Hezbollah coup is nearly complete.
All Hezbollah needs now is an election and they will seal their total control of the Lebanese Parliament.
And Sulieman will have passed the test as their potential new President.
And that was the objective of Hezbollah all along.
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Monday April 21, 2008
I'm Predicting:
King Louis XIV, Mary Queen of Scots, FDR, and even George Washington all loved to play it.
They all loved to play pool, billiards, snooker.
The northern region of Iran just imposed a fatwa - a religious edict- banning the game.
Iran has a long list of banned behaviors.
Immodest dress for women, exposed hair and face when outside the home, has been banned and rock music has been banned.
In the 19th century Western tobacco companies were taking over the market and the product and so a fatwa was issued resulting in the total elimination of smoking in Iran at that time.
The effects of these bans have been mixed over the years.
The Iranians are trying to legislate behavior and morality.
They are trying to stop all outside influences by using the religious police.
In today's world, however, society is not influenced by pool tables or tobacco - in today's world society is influenced by music, movies and culture transmitted by way of satellite internet.
So Iran is trying to block the internet by having people who use internet cafes register with the religious police.
The Iranians will discover that it is almost impossible to stop the internet and separate the young people of Iran from their music.
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Tuesday April 15, 2008
I'm Predicting:
I caught an advance peak at some of the Pope's US speeches.
The speech that most interested me is the Papal address slated to be delivered Sunday at Ground Zero. The Pope will pray for the terrorist murderers, he will ask that they see the light, embrace peace and convert to Christianity.
All of the Pope's presentations are written out and read.
Everything is scripted.
Nothing is left open to interpretation or, more specifically, misinterpretation.
Here are the exact words as written in the speech:
"Turn to Your way of love those whose hearts and minds are consumed with hatred ... God of understanding, overwhelmed by the magnitude of this tragedy, we seek Your light and guidance."
Expect that these comments coming on the heels of the public conversion to Catholicism by Madgi Allam - one of the most famous Muslims in Europe - will ignite Muslim wrath and indignation.
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Tuesday April 1, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Hamas, the people who preached murder and hatred and the total destruction of the Western World to the children of the Palestinian Authority through TV and puppets and a Mickey Mouse look-a-like are at it again.
This time Hamas has created a George Bush look-a-like puppet.
In this latest installment on Hamas educational TV a Palestinian boy meets US President George Bush.
The boy is crying. He berates Bush for killing father in Iraq, his mother in Lebanon and his brothers and sisters in Gaza with the help of the Israelis, of course.
The child tells Bush: "You are a criminal. You took everything away from me."
The boy shouts: "I have to take revenge with this sword of Islam."
Bush begs, saying: "I repent. Don't kill me."
Bush says come to the White House. The boy says the White House is now a mosque, and "impure Bush" is forbidden to even enter.
The scene ends as the boy stabs Bush to death.
This scenario will continue to be replayed - new shows will be broadcast.
Hamas will continue to manipulate the children of the Palestinian Authority under the guise of entertainment.
No one and nothing is stopping Hamas.
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Tuesday March 25, 2008
I'm Predicting:
The meeting being hailed as the start of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas is a farce.
The document that was signed during that meeting was signed by mistake.
As Chief Palestinian Negotiator Ahmed Qureia tells it, former Deputy Palestinian Prime Minister Azzam al-Ahmed mistakenly, even absent-mindedly, agreed to put his signature on the Fatah side of the Yemeni accord.
Yup, it was all a mix-up.
Apparently al-Ahmed tried calling the office of his boss, Abbas, for help and a decision. But just when al-Ahmed needed him most, Abbas was in a meeting with US Vice President Cheney. So Azzam al-Ahmed signed the agreement.
There is no way that Fatah and Hamas can or will share power.
Fatah needs to control Gaza and Hamas will never give up the reins.
Fatah cannot risk sharing power once again - it would mean turning their back on the Palestinian Authority once again, it would mean reliving last June when Fatah was thrown out of Gaza by Hamas.
An agreement between Fatah and Hamas will not in any way advance the Palestinian cause.
The only thing Hamas can bring to the table is a more Islamic Palestinian Authority.
That is not the way to go.
This agreement will be nullified - either by deed or by action.
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Friday March 21, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Osama Bin Laden's latest audio tape is very telling.
A message from bin Laden in commemoration of the 5th anniversary of the Iraqi invasion was to be expected - and we got it.
As usual of late, the real purpose behind these transmissions from bin Laden is to garner support for his cause using tried and true anti-Western and pro-Palestinian slogans.
He said: "My speech is about the Gaza siege and the way to retrieve it and the rest of Palestine from the hands of the Zionist enemy." He continued: "Our enemies [Israel] did not take it [Palestine] by negotiations and dialogue but with fire and iron. And this is the way to get it back."
Bin Laden is threatening war with everyone including Arab leaders and the Pope.
If I were predicting I would say there will certainly be upcoming attacks in the Arab world - especially in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. There will also be attacks in Europe, in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and England.
Simply put, this is the world we live in right now.
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Wednesday March 5, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Ahmadinejad wrapped up a 36 hour trip to neighboring Iraq on Monday.
This was the first trip any Iranian president has made to Iraq since the conclusion of the 8 Year War and that was in the 80's.
Western press paid little attention to this trip and that's a shame.
From the Iranian standpoint this trip was a huge success.
Ahmadinejad held 6 press conferences and signed 7 memoranda of understanding with Iraq.
Ahmadinejad kept hammering away with his demand that the "foreigner" go home, asserting that all conflict will subside when the "foreigner" leaves.
If the conflict in Iraq should subside it will not be because Ahmadinejad was correct about the "foreigner." It will happen only because Iran stepped in and sponsored Shiite control in Iraq. If that happens it also means a wholesale massacre of Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis.
To this day Iran blames the Sunnis of Iraq for the thousands of deaths resulting from the 8 Year War with Iraq. Many of those deaths were innocent farmers who were poisoned by the low flying planes Saddam Hussein used to dust Iranians with poisonous gas.
Do not be misled - this was not just a long overdue social call.
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Sunday March 2, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Human interest stories make front page news.
Corrections are relegated to the back pages.
Last week, as tensions escalated between Hamas and Israel, casualties were sustained by both sides.
In one counter attack Israel hit the empty residence of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The Palestinian press reported that an innocent, one year old infant was killed in the rocket attack.
This week the Palestinians changed their story.
Now they are saying oops, the infant was killed not by Israel, but by Palestinians who were constructing an explosive device that exploded.
We can expect that, as this conflict intensifies, the Palestinian press will fill pages with heart wrenching stories of Palestinian babies and Palestinian mothers.
It is all part of a concerted, methodical effort by the Palestinians to control the Arab mass media and to influence media across the world.
Most of the time the Palestinians will not be successful and their mostly fabricated gut wrenching stories will not make it to media around the world.
But sometimes, they will succeed.
That's where we come in, that's when we must all play the role of fact checker.
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Tuesday February 12, 2008
I'm Predicting:
The planets are coming into alignment.
Something big is about to happen.
The intensity of the Qassam attacks on the Israeli city Sderot is increasing. IDF leadership has begun to speak of plans to embark on a wider, prolonged Gaza campaign. Israeli military leadership is saying that Israel can and must defend the homeland and the people.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in Germany trying to get support for such an operation. The United States has already given quasi approval.
I'm predicting that an Israeli military operation into Gaza is in the wings, just waiting for the right excuse to be executed.
The excuse can be a terror attack with a large impact on Israel.
The excuse can be a barrage of even more Qassam rockets shot in one day.
The excuse may be that Israeli citizens have just had enough already.
And then by land, air and sea Israel will go in and root out the terrorists.
The result will be costly in terms of Israeli soldier's lives.
But it is the only way to bring quiet back to Israel's southern border.
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Wednesday January 30, 2008
I'm Predicting:
On Tuesday the Islamic regime in Iran convicted and sentenced 54 Bahai.
Their crime? Distributing materials that were deemed "against the state."
A little background on the Bahai:
In the 19th century the Bahai split off from Shiite Islam in Persia, today's Iran. They have been brutally persecuted by the Shiites in Iran ever since.
I mean that literally - there have been public executions of Bahai in Iran.
And they have magnificent gardens in Haifa, Israel.
The response to Tuesday's arrest is an indicator of just how much the world is moved by the persecution of the Bahai under Iran's Islamic regime.
It would be inspiring if people, publications and leaders in Western countries and yes, even in Muslim countries, stood up against such oppression.
My guess is that this will be one of the only written expressions of concern.
Iran abuses the Bahai and the world is quiet.
What a shame.
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Monday January 28, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Egypt has announced that they will start taking bids on a new nuclear reactor.
The announcement came on Saturday, bids will be taken in February.
The expected cost of the nuclear reactor is between $1.5.-$1.8 billion US.
Abdel Mohsen Morsi Metwalli the director of nuclear engineering at Alexandria University said "the offer is open to all countries."
That means that France, Russia and Iran will bid to build the Egyptian reactor.
The big question now is who will control the future of the region.
If the answer is Iran expect an explosion of nuclear development in the next year or two.
The glass ceiling is about to be broken in the Middle East.
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Monday January 14, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Hamas has set conditions in order to renew relations with Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.
Hamas is demanding an "end to all security coordination and cooperation with the Occupation Forces."
Hamas never refers to Israel by name.
Setting conditions for a resumption of talks is nothing new for Abbas.
Abbas has always set conditions - his terms are that Hamas publicly apologize for the June takeover of Gaza.
Hamas has never yet set conditions - they want recognition and credibility and the best way to achieve those goals is through dialogue.
Abbas is once again in a bind.
If he wants help from the West he must reject Hamas.
If he extends his hand to Hamas he is embracing his own destruction.
But Hamas continues to increase in strength, and they must be dealt with.
And that is why it is difficult to predict what Abbas will do.
At this point, however, I do not foresee rapprochement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
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Friday January 11, 2007
I'm Predicting:
The business side of the Bush trip to Israel and the Palestinian Authority is over. Today the president will spend private time at holy sites and then move on to the rest of his Mid East trip.
What have we learned?
Vis a Vis Israel:
Bush demonstrated that he is very comfortable, very at ease with Israel. He accepts the Israeli point of view on almost every issue and really, only asks Israel to exhibit restraint.
Vis a Vis the Palestinian Authority:
Bush will be called to task by the Arab world for his friendship with Israel and for his allegiance to Israel which are interpreted as snubs to the PA and by extension to the entire Arab world.
Vis a Vis Bush's personal odyssey:
Bush broke from protocol and chose not to visit the tomb of Yasser Arafat a spot which all foreign dignitaries visit when they come to Ramallah. Understandably, the Palestinians were upset, displeased, distraught over this decision.
My analysis:
Bravo Mr. Bush.
No American or Western president can justify a visit to the Arafat tomb.
But this action will have a ripple effect throughout the Arab world.
I expect very tense exchanges between George Bush and the Arab leaders he is scheduled to meet as he continues on this journey through the Middle East.
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Sunday January 6, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Iran's Foreign Ministry made a statement today about the upcoming trip of President Bush to the Middle East.
Iran is calling the Bush trip an attempt to salvage a failed Middle East policy.
Truly, the Iranians are not that far off.
The Bush visit to Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt is certainly going to be an attempt to convince those countries to help lead a coalition against Islamic extremism.
And in the eyes of the United States Islamic extremism is code for Iran.
The Iranians have already begun to counter the Bush trip.
And despite the fears Regional leaders have of Iran, Iran has the upper hand in the region.
The US will have an uphill battle, they are facing two huge stumbling blocks:
The United States has made some major mistakes in the Region
The United States lacks knowledge and true understanding of the Region
The US will have to prove that they really know what is happening.
The US will have to prove that they really know what they are doing.
I do not think it possible.
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Thursday January 3, 2008
I'm Predicting:
The Al Aqsa Brigades of Abbas' Fatah Party wants to "take it up a notch."
The Brigades claims to have fired a rocket, a Bashaar 1 rocket, towards an Israeli settlement called Shaked, situated in the West Bank.
Correct - not Gaza but the West Bank.
They say they will continue to build and launch these rockets.
The implications are ginormous.
It means that the main areas of Israel will all be within range of Palestinian rocket launchers.
It means that the Brigades have learned from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
It means that the Al Aqsa Brigades could cripple Israel if they are not stopped.
If the Al Aqsa Brigades really did launch a rocket at Israel and if they shoot any more rockets at Israel from the West Bank - Israel will retaliate with tremendous force.
Do not be confused, there is no parallel with this situation and with Gaza where rockets land only on a small southern isolated town called Sderot.
Mark my words.
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Monday December 24, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Iran has just sent out a tender - the Iranians want to build 19 new nuclear reactors.
I know that, in principle, Russia has already agreed to help build 5 reactors, but the deal has not yet been finalized.
Russia has said that the Iranian plant in Busher will not be ready until winter of 2008. But Iran has just said that they will be ready enough to produce 500 megawatts of energy by March of 2008.
What is Iran up to?
Iran is flaunting their nuclear vindication and their success in the aftermath of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE).
Iran is playing up this American miscalculation to the hilt in the Muslim and European worlds.
Iran wants to make it clear to everyone that they are moving ahead with their nuclear program and now nothing can stop them.
Iran will soon put their own brand of nuclear technology on the market, selling to any group or country with enough interest and enough money.
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Wednesday December 19, 2007
I'm Predicting:
How should a country respond to the daily rocket bombardment of cities, towns and farms?
It is a question Israel asks daily.
Yesterday, Israel found a response.
In two separate strikes, Israel successfully targeted 5 Islamic Jihad terrorist leaders.
Of course, Israel could beg the Palestinians to stop launching rockets into their midst, but PA leader Abbas is powerless and has no control over his terrorists.
Of course, Israel could ask Hamas leaders to stop launching rockets from Gaza, but Hamas leaders are sponsoring those rockets.
Israel tracks and pursues terrorist leaders and cell commanders.
Israel targets them, Israel kills them.
Seek and destroy, that is the Israeli response.
Until there is peace between Israelis and Palestinians, until there is Palestinian justice, until Palestinian police prevent those missiles from flying into Israel, Israel will continue will continue to search out those terrorists and, one by one, to destroy them.
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Saturday December 8, 2007
I'm Predicting:
There will be casualties resulting from the Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear program.
The biggest casualties will probably not be suffered by Israel or Germany or France, even though they have all gone on record as disagreeing with the new assessment.
They will survive.
The biggest casualties will probably be in the Arab world.
The Arab world came to Annapolis in order to support the United States, to put their collective shoulder behind the United States effort to confront Iran.
The Arab world supported the United States because standing alone, they do not have the fortitude to buck Iran.
Uniting with a non-Muslim country against a Muslim country was an unprecedented step in the Arab world.
Now the United States is sending out a mixed message.
Is Iran a nuclear threat?
Is Iran not a nuclear threat?
Did the Arab world make a mistake by supporting the United States against Iran?
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Friday November 16, 2007
I'm Predicting:
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the UN's nuclear watchdog.
The IAEA is headed by Muhammad el Baradei.
Yesterday the IAEA released a long awaited report detailing Iran's nuclear activity.
The report leads to much confusion.
The IAEA report both complements the Iranians for their transparency and declares that Iran needs to be more transparent. The headline screams one story but the details that follow and that few people will ever read tell a different story. Hidden within the body of the report is the admission that the UN cannot ascertain whether or not Iran has a nuclear military program because there are still many sites that investigators were not permitted to visit.
True to his style, Ahmadinejad has already grabbed on to the IAEA report.
Ahmadinejad is proclaiming that the UN has cleared him and that Iran really is cooperating and that this is clear evidence of how the United States and Israel stick their noses where they do not belong and so, therefore, this report justifies the harsh stance taken by Iran against US sponsored sanctions.
Given this IAEA report it is unlikely that the Security Council will make any headway censoring Iran. Both China and Russia will cite the report and sing the glories of Iranian compliance.
The United States and Israel will not let this report just slide by pretending that all is well with Iran.
The United States and Israel will now seek out those tiny details incriminating Iran and disproving the glaringly inaccurate IAEA headlines.
The United States and Israel will use their finding to motivate countries who do not trust Iran.
What a fiasco, what an embarrassment, what a shandah
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Saturday November 3, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Israel and the United States are applying tremendous pressure against Iran.
The result might not be what Israel and the US had in mind.
The result seems to be the convergence of a New World anti-American block.
This newly emerging anti-American block appears to mimic the old cold war split: Russia and China on one side
The United States and the West on the other side
Until now it has been made clear by the United States that nukes in Iranian hands will very likely destabilize the world and threaten the Western interests.
This split can have deleterious effects on US foreign policy, specifically policy dealing with nuclear proliferation in Iran and in other Muslim countries.
There are two avenues for the US to pursue if a New World split emerges:
The US will continue pressuring Iran
The US will try to stop this world division
Both paths are dangerous, neither is out of the realm of possibility.
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Tuesday October 23, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Now that Iran's nuclear negotiator has resigned, Iran will become even more hard-line.
Ali Larijani resigned because of an internal conflict with Ahmadinejad.
Larijani was a hawk, a member of the extremist camp.
Larijani was an officer in the Iranian National Guard.
Larijani was the head of Iranian national radio and is credited with discrediting all the liberal forces in Iran.
Larijani and Ahmadinejad had their differences.
Those differences were revealed earlier this year when Larijani expressed dissatisfaction after the president contradicted him about attending a nuclear summit. Larijani was not in favor of attending. Ahmadinejad was.
Despite his hawkishness, Larijani actually prefers negotiations. Ahmadineajd does not.
So when Larijani submitted his resignation Ahmadinejad was quick to accept it. Now a relative unknown named Saleed Jalili, former deputy foreign minister for European and American Affairs will take over as nuclear negotiator.
Jalili will do exactly what Ahmadinejad tells him to do.
The hard-line just got even harder, if that is at all possible.
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Thursday October 4, 2007
I'm Predicting:
On Wednesday Olmert and Abbas met for what turned out to be a realistic and very productive meeting.
It was one of the most realistic meetings in recent Middle East history.
The Palestinian leader and the Israeli leader concluded that the United States sponsored conference to be held next month is not a goal, it is a step.
Coming to that conclusion and formally verbalizing it is in and of itself a big step.
Now there are rumors that the mid-November conference will be pushed off to late November.
That is not bad news, it is a sign that the sides are working together.
More specific groundwork and homework needs to be done.
Israel and the Palestinians must agree on a one page document of principles to present at the Conference.
Small group negotiations are kicking in and that is where the nitty gritty takes place.
The hard part happens before the Conference even begins.
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Friday September 21, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Let the Iranian Mission to the United Nations say what they wish.
There is no way the NYC Police Department will permit Ahmadinejad to visit ground zero, let alone lay a wreath.
Let me explain why:
For the NYPD and the Secret Service this is not a political issue.
For the NYPD and the Secret Service this is an explosive issue.
Not because of the colleagues they lost on 9-11, but because they are doing their jobs and because this visit is a matter of personal safety.
They are worried about the safety of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
If Ahmadinejad were to drop by and get out of his car there would be a full fledged riot. Ground Zero is in the middle of downtown. The leader of Iran cannot go and leave without being seen by thousands of people who would be viscerally appalled by his very presence and repulsed by his visit.
Ahmadinejad could not care less about New Yorkers or about Americans.
Ahmadinejad is playing to the people at home and to the Muslim world-at-large. Ahmadinejad is playacting the role of a historic Muslim leader who reaches out and appeals to the citizens of the enemy.
Ahmadinejad is a brilliant media manipulator.
Thankfully, the NYPD are doing their job.
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Monday September 10, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is meeting with Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The meeting is taking place in central Jerusalem at the prime minister's official residence.
The main agenda item during the meeting will be a discussion surrounding the possibility of a United States sponsored peace conference, a conference both men want. A secondary agenda item will be ways to keep the calm between Israelis and Palestinians.
Specifically, Abbas wants fewer roadblocks and a stop to Israel's bombing into Gaza.
Specifically, Olmert wants continued progress on the security front.
There was a positive sign several weeks ago when Palestinian security forces prevented the lynching of an Israeli officer who got lost and wandered into an Arab city. But Abbas has yet to prove that he is in control and that he can control security forces on the West Bank.
If Abbas can take control there is a chance for the US conference.
If Abbas is not in control everything reverts to the hands of the extremists - Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran.
If that happens there will be no conference.
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Sunday September 9, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Syria is very upset that Israeli aircraft flew over their air space.
Why was Israel there? Israel was testing access routes to Iran and the best routes pass through Syria and Turkey.
Without leaking a military secret it is safe to say that Israel somewhat regularly flies over Syria trying out different routes and tinkering with passageways.
I suspect that Syria knows exactly what Israel was doing.
But this time, Syria went public. Why?
Syria took advantage of the moment in order to embarrass Israel, garner international support and - most importantly - mobilize Muslim antipathy towards Israel on the eve of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The big question now is: How will Syria respond?
Syria has to save face.
Syria is calling up reserves - but I do not believe that they will launch a war.
Syria will probably call up even more reserves and move armor and tank corps into position, they may even run their planes over the Mediterranean Sea.
Syria will do all this to show the Arab world that they are responding.
Syria will not use the chemical and biological weapons that they have already outfitted on their scud missiles.
Syria is showing off, they will not cause an escalation in hostilities.
Not now.
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Saturday August 25, 2007
I'm Predicting:
The Supreme leader of Iran, The Ayatollah Khanenei, announced that he now understands United States policy vis a vis his country.
The Ayatollah said that what the United States fears most is Muslim unity. He said that all US policy is predicated upon driving a wedge between Muslims.
He is wrong. Driving a wedge is a "tool" to confront a reckless irresponsible theocracy, not a goal. The goal of the US is to prevent Iran from terrorizing the region and terrorizing the world with nuclear weapons.
The Ayatollah is really trying to convince other Muslims to take his side so that Iran does no have to confront the United States alone. Most regional leaders understand what The Ayatollah is doing, but the people do not.
The people actually believe the conspiracy allegations. The people are always looking for a reason to lash out at the United States and fuel their hatred. The Ayatollah understands that. He has found a very sensitive chord and I believe he will continue to sound that chord.
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Monday July 9, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Warning bells are ringing fast and furious in the Middle East.
Syria is expecting a civil war to erupt in Lebanon.
Question # 1: How soon?
As early as next week.
Question # 2: What's happening?
The Syrian government is removing all Syrian citizens from Lebanon.
Question # 3: What is the stimulus for a Lebanese civil war?
Hezbollah. Iran and Syria are trying to oust the UN from Lebanon. On June 15th the UN will decide whether or not to plug the holes in the border between Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah wants to force the UN's hand and take charge. Hezbollah wants to keep the border open and control the rest of Lebanon.
Question # 4: What is Hezbollah's agenda for Lebanon?
Hezbollah wants to take total charge of Lebanon. They are Shiites and so is about 40% of Lebanon. The remainder of Lebanon is a mix of Sunnis and Christians and they will fight a Shiite coup.
Question # 5: Will the Sunnis and Christians be successful?
They have a good chance because the rest of the Arab world - which is primarily a Sunni world - will side with the Sunnis of Lebanon against Hezbollah and Iran.
No matter the outcome, if there is a civil war, much of Lebanon will be destroyed.
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Saturday July 7, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Islamic radicalism and terror is beginning to frighten Egypt.
Egypt may be so frightened that they will close their border with the Palestinians and start collecting weapons belonging to terrorists.
On Thursday the Egyptians discovered 2650 pounds of explosives hidden in 27 plastic sacks buried in the Sinai dessert.
The explosives had one of two purposes:
either to be detonated in Gaza against Israeli soldiers
or to be detonated in the Sinai against Westerners and Israeli tourists
Munitions smuggling has been a major problem for Israel.
Now it is also a problem for Egypt.
If Hamas gets stronger and has more weapons they will threaten Egypt. There has been long standing tension between the Egyptian government and Islamic radical parties, especially the Islamic Brotherhood which spawned Hamas.
Hopefully, Egypt's fear and worry will translate into real action eliminating the ability of contraband to get through - either above or below ground.
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Friday June 29, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Tony Blair is the new peace envoy for the Middle East.
He will fail.
Why will Tony Blair fail?
Reason # 1: Because he simply does not understand the region.
Reason # 2: Because the involved parties are not really capable of making the compromises necessary for peace.
The sides are handicapped.
Handicap # 1: Both parties "want" peace, but they are far, far from a situation where they can have either a normal or a normalized relationship.
Handicap # 2: The West has expectation way too stratospheric to even realize when movement exists between the parties.
What can be done?
The most important thing is to get some sense of safety and stability on the Palestinian side, after that happens they can enforce their own agreements.
The situation is pretty grave right now.
So grave that in a survey made public yesterday nearly 20% of Palestinians want Israel to reoccupy and take over the Palestinians in order to improve their lives.
Tony Blair has a steep learning curve looming ahead. I do not think he is up to it.
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Tuesday June 26, 2007
I'm Predicting:
The latest Sharm el Sheikh Summit is over.
Olmert has indicated that Israel will take significant steps in order to help Abbas regain control over and stature among the Palestinians.
There are only two paths for Abbas to take in order to regain respect
# 1: attack Hamas
# 2: improve the situation on the ground by getting world support - and that can be accomplished only by embracing Israel.
Hamas will try to destroy Abbas no matter which path he takes.
Hamas will try to torpedo all overtures to Israel and crank up the tensions.
Hamas will sponsor terror attack and pick up the intensity of Qassam rocket attacks on Sderot.
Hamas knows that Abbas knows they are out to intimidate and destroy him.
Now push has come to shove.
Abbas will either destroy Hamas or be destroyed by Hamas.
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Wednesday June 20, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Arab and Muslim countries are going to begin to yank their support from Hamas.
Yesterday Egypt announced that they are closing their embassy in Gaza and moving it to the West Bank city of Ramallah. Egyptian diplomats left Gaza weeks ago and their ambassador will arrive in Ramallah in the next few days.
The move is significant.
It says that Hamas does not represent the Palestinians.
It says that Gaza is not the seat of the leadership.
Foreigners left Gaza long ago.
Now they are announcing their diplomatic presence in the West Bank.
They are announcing that they are one with the new PA and without Hamas.
The Muslim and Arab world is discounting Hamas.
They are rejecting the election that took place 18 months ago.
Syria and Iran will be the only exceptions.
This is very good news.
Isolation of the extremists has begun.
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Sunday June 3, 2007
I'm Predicting:
A flurry of diplomatic activity surrounds Iran - good, positive activity.
These diplomatic vibes have been brought on by the belief that Iran is finally about to adhere to the international standard and allow for nuclear inspections.
If the world is reading Iran correctly, confrontations between Iran and the United States and Iran and Israel would be averted.
If the world is reading Iran correctly, Western diplomats could pat themselves on the back because diplomacy triumphs even in Iran.
But the world may not be reading Iran correctly.
Iran is smart and Iran understands the game.
Iran knows that by opening talks and allowing for discussions with the United States they are buying good will and more importantly, they are buying time.
Iran is changing style - not substance.
The West sees the change in style and hopes for a change in content and policy.
Iran has no intention of making a change in either nuclear policy or attitude.
There has been no shift in the national policy of Iran since the process began.
Iran will not, cannot, does not want to change.
Change is not in the Iranian lexicon.
Thursday May 31, 2007
I'm Predicting:
Once upon a time there was a nice Jewish boy named Adam Pearlman.
Never heard of him, maybe you have heard of him as Adam Gadahn.
Adam Pearlman/Gadahn is the Jewish al Qaeda member.
Adam's first 15 minutes of notoriety began yesterday when he appeared on a new video posted on an al Qaeda website making a series of threats and announcing a long list of demands.
The video was really addressed to President Bush.
The demands were ludicrous, hilarious and threatening - all totally unrealistic.
This is one special demand that struck my fancy:
The US must immediately cease the support of Israel.
The exact quote is: 'the moral, military, economic or otherwise to the bastard state of Israel and ban your citizens ... from traveling to occupied Palestine or settling there."
This new spokesman for al Qaeda is wanted by the FBI.
This is the first time, since Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, that a US citizen is to be charged with treason.
We will be hearing more from this turban clad, bearded, Jewish son of California.
Adam Gadahn is the perfect vehicle for al Qaeda.
Adam Gahdahn will be used to broadcast the al Qaeda message to the West and to the Muslim world.
Stay tuned.