September 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
"Seize the moment." "Don't let this opportunity slip through our fingers."
President Obama has used these metaphors repeatedly in describing the talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
"This moment of opportunity may not soon come again." "They cannot afford to let it slip away."
The reality, however, is that this moment, the one taking place in Washington, DC. is totally artificial and purely man- made. The meeting was forced on both parties. It has nothing to do with timing. Actually - the timing is terrible.
The big event happens the day before the Labor Day weekend. Then comes Rosh Hashanah. After that, from September 10-13, is the three-day Muslim holiday called Id al Fitr. followed by Yom Kippur and Sukkot.
The reality is that until October, there is no actual time to sit down. Clearly, there is no burning need to sit down and talk. But the US administration wants this to happen now.
So now is when it is happening.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday September 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Tonight the ceremony begins.
Tonight the White House hosts Netanyahu, Abbas, Abdullah and Mubarak.
Tonight all sit together for a state dinner. Tonight the leaders of the United States, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority will break bread. Conspicuously absent from this event is Hamas - but their presence has already, sadly, tragically, been felt. The pomp and circumstance of the event will be more fitting for the end of the process than for the beginning.
The irony is that, while very few people appreciate this fact, this entire event could easily have taken place 20 months ago when Obama first took office. It was President Obama's insistence that forced the hand of the Palestinians and brought about the response of the Israelis.
In January 2009 talks between the Israelis and Palestinians were ongoing. What a waste of time, energy, productivity and momentum.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday August 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt has been in a tumult these last few days.
Posters appeared throughout the country abdicating for Gamal Mubarak, son of Hosni Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt.
Why is this at all interesting? Primarily because there has been no discussion, either public or private, about succession. And those who have rejected the ideas of political succession have been arrested or silenced.
Now a serious dissident, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, has signed a petition for Mubarak. Ibrahim claims that he signed in order to support a real election not to endorse the candidate/son.
Do not expect a real debate - but the young Mubarak does have many things going for him as the successor. Then again, he also has many negative traits.
If Mubarak junior is to become the next president of Egypt it will happen because he has been firmly placed in position by his father, so firmly placed that there can be no doubts about his credentials.
This will not be an easy political task. Then again, Mubarak the father has never shied away from difficult tasks.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Seldom do we get a really good first hand indicator of a developing country's potential.
Economists crunch numbers and insert variables. Analysts read the prevailing winds. Investors translate tones and offer a prognosis. But it is all one step removed.
So I was relieved to actually hear Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani explain his goals and give a timetable.
Iraq is producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
They are permitted 4 million per day by agreement with OPEC.
Shahristani said that he expects Iraq to meet OPEC totals within 2 years.
Iraqis are taking their production seriously. They are developing and expanding their capabilities. And now we have a serious timeline to attach to their objectives.
It seems doable.
Given the expansion, it seems sustainable.
Given Iraq's current orientations and direction we should take Shahristani at his word.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi is now in Rome, his fourth visit to Italy in a year.
Ostensibly, the purpose of this visit is the first anniversary of the reparations agreement between the two countries. The Italian government has agreed to pay Libya $9 billion because of the Italian occupation of Libya from 1911-1943.
But nothing Ghadaffi does is without serious symbolic value.
The Libyan leader has pitched his famous Bedouin tent. He has brought along 30 thoroughbred Berber horses and 40 body guards.
During a previous trip to Italy, in November of 2009, Ghadaffi hosted a lavish party for between 200 to 500 beautiful Italian women - all of whom were paid to attend. They were models and hostess and were told wear dresses that came to the knee. At the party Ghadaffi delivered a long lecture on the attributes of Islam and asked his guests to convert.
I can't wait to see what Ghadaffi has planned this time around.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday August 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Lebanon is in a bind.
# 1: Iran has offered to arm Lebanon.
# 2: The United States is calling into question the $100 million a year they give to Lebanon.
# 3: Iran stepped right up and said they will fill the gap.
This is very important.
Iran is already the supporter and arms provider for Hezbollah. If the Iranians now become the patron of the Lebanese army that means that they will, literally, be arming both sides of an internal struggle.
Lebanon does not want to join with Iran but there may be no other choice. The Lebanese know that all Iranian aid comes with multiple strings attached.
One of those strings may be that the Lebanese become proxy warriors against Israel on Iran's behalf. And that could mean the end of Lebanon.
Lebanon really needs the aid and Lebanon really needs the weapons to hold their own against Hezbollah.
Lebanon is faced with a serious dilemma.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday August 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian leadership is preparing for direct talks with Israel. The United States has made it very clear that these talks must adhere to serious conformity with existing agreements.
So over the past few days the PA has been arresting Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the West Bank. This might appear to be a win win situation, but the arrests can have serious backlash.
It is win win because to the outside world it now looks like the PA is taking security seriously and is designating Hamas and Islamic Jihad as terror groups working to undermine them. But it might be a lose lose because these arrests can easily come back to haunt Abbas.
Abbas is already in a very precarious political situation. The public believes that Abbas is too compliant, that he too often does what he is told, that the US and Israel pull his strings.
Abbas is a survivor.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday August 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Ever since it became a modern state, Lebanon has been like a powder keg ready to explode.
Divisions in Lebanon run deep. Civil wars are commonplace. Capital city Beirut is extremely volatile - Shiites and Sunnis kill one another with abandon.
When Lebanon is quiet it is an eerie quiet. It means that tensions are there, covered over, hiding beneath the surface.
Yesterday there was a clash between Shiites and Sunnis in a mixed neighborhood in Beirut. This was no small shoot. At least three people were killed and many more were wounded. Machine guns and RPGs were the weapons used.
RPG stands for rocket propelled grenade. RPGs are the weapons Hezbollah uses to shoot tanks. This is serious destructive fire power.
This is a serious situation.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday August 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Tourism is up in Syria this year. The increase is 55% over last year at this time. That means 5.1 million tourists have visited Syria so far in 2010. Truly, an unbelievable number.
About 1 million of the tourists are themselves Syrians living abroad. About 3 million are Arabs from other countries. The rest are true foreigners, people from other countries.
An increase of such huge dimensions has to be attributed to something. The best I can guess is-the new attitude of the world-at-large towards Syria resulting from Syria's new openness to the West.
Syria's decision to entertain overtures from the West has resulted in tourism that has surged into the millions. More than people, the Syrians say that $5 billion US dollars in revenue has been raised.
Now for the billion dollar question: Will this improved economic tool further influence Syria's foreign policy?
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is in victory mode.
The Iranians continue to gloat, proclaiming that they have trounced the United States and the West.
Yesterday, in response to Israel's frustration over the opening of the new Iranian nuclear reactor in Busher, Ahmadinejad declared that Israel is too weak to attack Iran.
He continued his rhetoric by declaring that the Iranians do not fear a US attack, either. He said that the US could not even defeat the tiny Iraqi army or put down the present insurgency in Iraq. If they can't even handle Iraq, how could they defeat the mighty Iranian military, he rhetorically asked.
This is a new stage in Ahmadinejad's bluster. He is milking the opening of the nuclear plant at Busher for all he can. He is trying to mesmerize the Muslim world by illustrating for them how both Israel and the United States are not to be feared.
Ultimately Iran's political leader is saying: Do not be intimidated by these heathens. They are weak, we are strong. Iran will lead and defend all the Muslim world.
He's not just mouthing the words. Ahmadinejad means what he says.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran opened the Busher nuclear power plant yesterday. Nuclear reactors are being filled as you read this.
The opening of this nuclear power plant was happen simply and easily on the part of Iran because the US proclaimed to the world - and particularly to Israel, that the Busher plant was a nuclear power plant. Russia confirmed this story because they constructed the plant.
Israel is shocked and stunned by naivete of the United States and Russia.
Iran is jubilant. The news was celebrated on TV and radio broadcasts. The Iranians are calling it a monstrous victory over the West. Despite Western pressure they were able to fulfill their objectives and open a nuclear power facility.
How could the US and Russia be so easily played?
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday August 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday a ship is set to depart from Lebanon stockpiled with aid for Gaza. The ship is called the Mariam, the Arabic name for Mary mother of Jesus.
The Mariam is supposed to have only Christian women aboard. The intention of this voyage is to break the Israeli blockade. Really, it is a serious propaganda and public relations ploy. The hope is that the Christian angle will call a lot of attention to this mission.
Cyprus has already declared that the ship is not welcome. They Cypriots said that if the ship does set sail they will arrest the passengers and send them back to Lebanon. Cyprus understands exactly what is happening.
The government of Lebanon was asked to stop this ship but as of now, has remained silent. Unlike the Turks, the Lebanese government has not supported, condemned or prevented the ship from departing. This is like walking a thin tightrope.
Israel sees this voyage by the Mariam as a provocation and has warned that it will respond in kind. Tensions are rising.
We must monitor this situation carefully - it clearly has the potential to explode.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday August 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
One of the byproducts of significantly better relations between Turkey and Syria is a joint effort to saving an endangered species - the Bald Ibis.
The Bald Ibis is one of rarest birds in the world. Large creatures of prey, Bald Ibis are found in Turkey, in Morocco, and a handful are to be found in Syria.
There are about 500 Bald Ibis alive in the wild today and 1,000 in captivity. That's a lot considering that they were considered to be extinct 300 years ago.
The bird's wingspan is 5 feet long, the body is nearly 3 feet long. Well named, the Bald Ibis has a seriously bald head and a 5 inch beak.
The new friendship sprouting between Turkey and Syrian is bad news for the West. But bad news for the West is good news for the Bald Ibis.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday August 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A serious religious conflict is taking between Palestinian political groups. The conflict is taking place now, right this very minute.
The Palestinian Authority has made it illegal for anyone not authorized by the Authority to preach or instruct in mosques in the West Bank. Why this? Why now? It is the PA's aka Fatah's response to Hamas.
Hamas has been recruiting in the West Bank. Hamas has forbidden the reading of the Quran (Koran) from the minaret before the call to prayer. The PA says this diminishes the teachings of the Quran.
What the PA is really saying is: this is a check against Hamas. Even though the PA and the residents of the West Bank are overwhelmingly Muslim, the PA is fearful of a religious government, like Hamas, taking over.
Hamas says that turning non-PA authorized clergy into criminals is an act of outright war on Islam. Hamas is correct, but they are like the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. Hamas does the same thing. Only authorized Hamas preachers may preach in Gaza - and no political or religious alternative views are ever, at all, permitted.
This is all taking place during Ramadan, the holy month during which peaceful coexistence between fellow Muslims is, or is supposed to be, a prime theme.
Unlike Ramadan, this tension will not be resolved at month's end.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Quartet is pressuring Israel to agree to conditions before commencing direct meetings with the Palestinians.
The Quartet, composed of the UN, the EU, Russia and the US, is charged with trying to move the Palestinians and the Israelis toward a peace deal.
Israel had thought that they successfully cornered the Palestinians by pushing for a resumption of face to face, direct talks. The Palestinians had set up a series of pre-conditions before they would come back to the table with the Israelis. The Israelis said pre conditions are unreasonable. The US and most of the world agreed. Until now.
Now the Palestinians have the Quartet as their most welcome mouthpiece, pushing Palestinian preconditions and trying to force Israel into talks.
Israel is saying no and trying to convince the US to back them once again.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A new audio message was posted on an al Qaeda web site today. It was a message from Ayman Zawahiri, the second most important leader of Al Qaeda. The message, in Arabic, was 20 minutes long.
Most significantly, Zawahiri calls Muslim leaders to task for abandoning the cause of their people.
He also discusses Turkey, delivering a complex and serious message. Al Qaeda's # 2 both calls for ousting Turkey's leadership and compliments the Muslim leadership for supporting the Palestinians and for sending the flotilla to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
He delivers a biting critique of Turkish military cooperation with Israel. On the one hand Zawahiri says Turkey is doing the right thing and on the other he says Turkey is just like all the evil leaders in the Muslim world who co-operate with the enemy.
Zawahiri is not speaking in circles. This critique shows a multi-leveled understanding that until now has been missing in al Qaeda's public messages. Until now, al Qaeda messages have always been mono-dimensional.
This could signal a significant change in al Qaeda's approach to their disciples. Or it could just be a reflection of an obvious reality that needed to be articulated.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday August 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Last night President Barack Obama spoke at a break fast dinner. The dinner marked the end of a day of the month long fast of Ramadan. During Ramadan, Muslims fast by day and eat at night.
Obama spoke about religious freedom and tolerance. I saw a synopsis of the president's remarks and, mark my words, what was said will be heard and interpreted very differently from the intent with which the president chose and spoke his words.
The Muslim community will not be offended by the president. They will draw their own conclusions from the double message that the president, I assume inadvertently, delivered to the break fast guests.
The Muslim community will hear that religious intolerance is unacceptable. That religious intolerance is at the heart of the debate shrouding the World Trade Center mosque. They will understand that the President of the United States is in favor of the mosque.
Other audiences will hear the president deliver a subtle moral lesson, advising the Muslim community that they, too, must practice tolerance.
Bottom line: The president’s message will be totally lost. His attempt at subtle persuasion will be lost on the Muslim community. And those who do not want the Mosque to be built will not be moved by the call for tolerance.
What a wasted opportunity.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday August 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Howard L. Berman (D-CA) is the Chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. On August 2, Berman put a hold on $100 million of US aid to Lebanon for 2010, another $100 million was held for 2011.
August 2 was the day before the cross border sniper killing of an Israeli officer.
In the official Committee statement released on August 9 Berman said:
"I have been concerned for sometime about reported Hezbollah influence on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and its implications for our military assistance program for Lebanon. For that reason, on August 2, I placed a hold on a $100 million dollar security assistance package to the LAF. The incident on the Israel-Lebanon border only one day after my hold was placed simply reinforces the critical need for the United States to conduct an in-depth policy review of its relationship with the Lebanese military. I strongly condemn the unprovoked attacked by the Lebanese Army that resulted in the death of an Israeli officer. Until we know more about this incident and the nature of Hezbollah influence on the LAF -- and can assure that the LAF is a responsible actor -- I cannot in good conscience allow the United States to continue sending weapons to Lebanon."
The Congressman is 100% correct.
It was not luck or karma that influenced Berman to shut the money down on that day. It was scrutiny. The Chairman and the Committee are correct to have suspicions because Hezbollah is so fully integrated into the Lebanese Army.
Within hours of the announcement the Iranian Ambassador met with the Lebanese Minister of Defense and promised Lebanon whatever they need. That's right, all of Lebanon's needs will be catered to on a silver platter by Iran.
The United States disciplines Lebanon and the Iranians reward them for the very same act. The Middle East is a very complicated region.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
August 11, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Today is the first day of Ramadan.
Ramadan is the name of the ninth month of the Muslim calendar. It is also a month long fast. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night. When they fast it is a total fast, that means no food and no drink.
Ramadan, the Islamic fast, mimics the biblical holy day of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. The biblical holiday, the fast of Yom Kippur, is but one day long. The fast of Ramadan is designed as a month of introspection and repentance. Evening break fasts are a celebration of life and family.
During Ramadan the mosques are packed and the Imams are preaching. The people are hungry and introspective. Ramadan is the perfect breeding ground for extremist ideas and actions.
For the West, Ramadan is a time of high alert.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday Iran announced that they were launching four new Ghadir series submarines. The Ghadir are a midget series submarine and Iran has 11 of them.
At about only 30 yards long, the Ghadir may be small, but they are stealth equipped and very high tech. They will help Iran patrol their borders. They are capable of firing both torpedoes and missiles at the same time.
The Ghadir are very dangerous, difficult to monitor and a very effective attack weapon.
Iran continues to crank up their conventional weapons capabilities. That means we must keep a very, very close eye on what the Iranians do and don't do. We need to know exactly what the Iranians are capable of accomplishing.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad came out with his own information about 9-11 on Saturday. His goal is to position himself as the only leader capable of successfully challenging the established West.
On Saturday Ahmadinejad announced that:
9-11 was a fiction
the numbers were invented
he never saw a list of names of victims.
Ahmadinejad said that the Zionists were told not to come to work that day. He added that the Holocaust was also a fiction, a fictional tool used by the Zionists to gain sympathy.
Why is he saying all of this and why is he saying it now?
Ahmadinejad is making a play to isolate the West and concentrate power and strength in a non-Western block.
The most dramatic conspiracies to circulate throughout the non-Western world center around 9-11 and about the Holocaust . If Ahmadinejad can add fuel to the proverbial fire on these issues, he becomes the most public personality and influential international leader able to support a bid against the West.
In general, political leaders shy away from publicly speaking out on theories fearing that the US will slap them down. Instead these writings and ideas find themselves in mosques and in non-establishment publications and on websites.
Ahmadinejad is making these ideas mainstream. He is giving voice to a gargantuan mass that believe this rhetoric.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday August 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian police, secret service and army are conducting a massive man hunt in the Sinai desert. They are looking for terrorists and trucks used to launch a barrage of rockets that landed in Aqaba, Jordan and in Eilat, Israel.
The rockets were launched on Monday. One Jordanian was killed and three were wounded. The incoming explosives left no dead or injured in Israel. Now the United States has updates the State Department's travel warning recommendations and is advising Americans to stay away from Eilat.
Immediately after the rockets came flying Egypt declared that there was no possible way that they came from their territory. They claimed that US anti-terror and police teams swarm the area making it impossible for an attack to be launched. They were convinced only after Jordan delivered incontrovertible proof and evidence that the rockets were, indeed, launched from Egypt.
Now Egypt is in high gear and they have announced that the terrorists came from Gaza. Of course, these terrorists have not been sunbathing in Sinai for the past few days waiting to be caught.
This delay by Egypt was a classic element of Mid-East machismo. This time that machismo got in the way of apprehending terrorists and gathering intel on their operations.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday August 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Most people do not know this, but in Afghanistan and Tajikistan one of the languages that is spoken is Persian - just like in Iran.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad created a Persian Language Summit with three of his neighboring countries. Ahmadinejad is trying to counter the influence of the West. He wants to oust the West. He is trying to organize and leverage and force NATO out of Afghanistan by organizing the leaders. In the final analysis, Ahmadinejad wants to further isolate the United States.
Iran needs to prove to Afghanistan and Tajikistan and everyone else in the area that their own region does not want the West to be there. He wants to prove that there is nothing more upsetting to people in the region than the presence of outsider armies, especially Western armies amidst them.
This is Ahmadinejad at his best.
This is Ahmadinejad organizing the region against the West.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday August 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Why did Lebanese soldiers open fire on Israeli forces? Why did the Lebanese snipers target Israeli officers 220 yards from the border operation that was trimming shrubs?
The evidence is clear. The truth is evident. Even UNIFIL and the US State Department say that the IDF was within Israel's border while trimming the shrubs with a cherry picker.
The UN has also confirmed that Israel informed them and they alerted the Lebanese Army that Israel would be trimming the shrubs. And Israel was trimming shrubs in order to prevent further cross border kidnappings.
One theory is that the Lebanese need to distract their citizens from the soon to be released UN report on the assassination of Lebanese President Rafik Hariri.
Another possibility is that Hezbollah infiltrated the Lebanese army and planned the assassination of the senior Israeli officers who would certainly be supervising the trimming operation. Hezbollah is thought to be heavily inside the Lebanese army - to the tune of 30%.
Whatever the reason, the only thing that surprises me is that UNIFIL actually told the truth and that UNIFIL finally backed up Israel and UNIFIL supported Israel's side of the story.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday August 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Can prison authorities prohibit the wearing of a Muslim head scarf? A United States court has just come out with a ruling.
The argument is pretty straightforward.
Under normal circumstances, this would b a freedom of religion issue and there should be no question but that this is an open and shut issue. But these are not normal circumstances, this is a question of security.
Prison needs to maintain safety. The head scarf is a perfect place to conceal weapons. The head scarf can be used as a weapon to strangle someone. So the court sided against freedom of religion and came out in favor of security and safety.
One of the most important lessons to be learned here is that even constitutional rights, assumed to be inalienable, have their limitations when it comes to safety.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's Ambassador to the United Nation's, Muhammed Khazaee, just went on home leave. In Teheran he received face-to-face updates from his superiors.
The UN Ambassador is a very important position in Iran. The Ambassador defends and presents Iran to the world. It is the UN Ambassador who officially attacks the US and Israel and who circles the wagons for whatever cause or issue is on the Iranian agenda at any given moment.
Khazaee is portrayed as a very important person by the Iranian media, he is a hero who defends the honor of Iran against oppressors.
While on home leave Khazaee did a round of local interviews. To the Iranian press he proclaimed: "Tehran would burn Tel Aviv down" if Iran was attacked.
Much of this is bluster - but there is a real threat hidden inside those words.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States is pressuring Palestinian President Abbas to begin direct talk with Israel. The same pressure is coming from the Arab League. And from leaders around the world.
Now come some very interesting follow-up comments: Hannan Ashwari, while interviewed on Al Jazera, said that the US threatened to cut off relations if Abbas did not join direct talks. The US State Department responded that the United States does not threaten.
Actually, the US does threaten. In this case, the US will withdraw the support they have given the PA if they do not embark on direct talks.
Abbas knows that local Palestinian leadership will not be at all happy with direct talks. So he has set out a series of preconditions before he will return to direct talks. Abbas hopes to keep both sides happy.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday July 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Ever since Thursday's Arab League meeting, interesting messages and movements have begun to emerge.
Most significantly, the Arab League now agrees with the United States and Israel that the way forward with the Palestinians is through direct, face-to-face discussions. The League could not say that they agree with Western nations outright, so they phrased it such that they see great benefit to direct negotiations that are overseen by the United States - but that the decision rests with the Palestinian Authority.
Next, the King of Saudi Arabia and the President of Syria called for unity in the League to help resolve the Palestinian Israeli issues.
And the King of Saudi Arabia and the King of Jordan announced that the only possible way to stabilize the region is through a two-state solution. This is especially interesting because the Saudis do not officially recognize Israel.
From the meeting and the announcements afterwards it seems clear that Arab leadership is divided. The larger group, led by the Saudis, wants direct negotiations and a two-state solution.
The smaller group, led by the head of the Arab League, Amir Moussa, wants to say no, wants to push off direct negotiations and wants a Palestinian state but only on their terms - which is very old school.
What matters is that there is serious development of thought in the Arab world and among Arab leadership. It remains to be seen if talk turns into action.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday July 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Since the fall of the Shah, Iran has had nothing but disdain for family planning.
The Shah encouraged a reduction of family size. Ads during the '70's proclaimed "2 is enough." Under the Shah, the optimum Iranian family size was 4.
For years now, even discussions of family planning is thought to be a sin of the West and considered anti-Muslim.
The reality is that today Iran is suffering from a huge people drain, the Iranian people are in a crisis environment. Iranians are leaving as quickly as they can find the opportunity. Very talented people are leaving Iran in droves. Estimates put unemployment at 15% to 20% (official figures say 10%). There are 73 million people in Iran. 10 million live in poverty.
So Iran has devised a plan. The government has said they will pay $950 per baby at birth and $95 per year until the child is 18 years old, the money will be used to send the child to school.
The Iranians hope that they have devised a way of increasing their population and filling a serious need for trained professionals.
Iran is planning for the future - and that includes more kids and more home trained professionals.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday July 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hosni Mubarak just sent a personal letter to Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. Egypt's president was responding to Rabbi Yosef's questions about his failing health and inquiry about the reports of cancer that are being reported in the media.
Ovadia Yosef is the former Chief Rabbi of Israel and the former Chief Rabbi Egypt.
This letter is not simply a letter. It is a message to Israel. The message is that Mubarak is healthy and here for long haul.
By extension, Mubarak is sending another message. This message is being sent home. Mubarak is telling all of Egypt that the rumors are just rumors, that the media is out to weaken Egypt.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday July 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has finally begun to invest in Iranian refineries.
Because Iranian refinery capability is so dismal, the Iranians actually import more than 40% of their own gasoline.
Iran is now investing $46 billion in upgrades on nine refineries and building seven new ones. They have already invested $26 in the new refineries.
The Iranians are finally realizing that the only way to break away from the strangle hold that will continue to tighten around them is by becoming independent. They are the 2nd largest oil producer in the Middle East and the 5th largest in the world and yet they have to beg for refined gas after they export oil.
The plan is to solve this problem within the next year. Iran is racing against the clock, against the sanctions clock. If the Iran plan works, sanctions will have no impact at all.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday July 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
This has been a summer of cancellations.
Band after band has cancelled concert tours to Israel. Most of the cancellations came as a result of pressure brought by European, anti- Israel, organizations.
Leftfield, Elvis Costello, The Pixies, Jill Scott Heron, Santana, The Klaxons, Gorillaz Sound System, they've all cancelled their Israeli performances. The would - be line-up is impressive. More impressive is Jethro Tull.
Jethro Tull has not cancelled, at least not yet. The group is still scheduled to perform an open air concert in Caesaria on August 7. The proceeds from the Jethro Tull concert will go to programs that sponsor co-existence between Israelis and Palestinians and between Jews, Christians and Muslims.
The band's lead musician, Ian Anderson, made it very clear that they will not be pressured to cancel their Israel performance. Anderson insisted that Jethro Tull will not be intimidated.
I hope others learn from Jethro Tull's example.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday July 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Chavez of Venezuela just threatened to stop exporting oil to the United States if Columbia launches any attack on its territory.
The Columbians believes that rebels are crossing their 1300 mile mutual border and crossing back to the refuge of Venezuela. Chavez believes that the US is behind the arrogance of the Columbian government.
According to Hugo Chavez: "If there was any armed aggression against Venezuela from Colombian territory or from anywhere else, promoted by the Yankee empire, we would suspend oil shipments to the United States even if we have to eat stones here."
For further emphasis Chavez adds: "We would not send a drop more to U.S. refineries."
Chavez will not live up to his promise. Why? Because 90% of Venezuela's oil exports go to the US of A. The entire economy of Venezuela would collapse if Chavez actually pulled the plug on the United States.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday July 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Thursday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak appeared on TV in a taped presentation.
There have been rumors that Egypt's president is dying of cancer and one US paper even reported that he has less than a year to live. In March he had gallbladder surgery in Germany and was out of Egypt for three weeks, running affairs of state from his hospital room.
Mubarak looked thinner than usual, but he sounded fine and still looked good. The thinness does not bother me. It was always well camouflage under his exquisitely tailored suits, but Mubarak has been about sixty pounds overweight for a long while.
This TV appearance was a tool to support and bolster confidence in Mubarak's power and position. The message is I am alive and well. I am in charge and in control of Egypt. You are in good hands.
There is no doubt that one of the most important issues Mubarak is considering is succession. Mubarak's internal struggle right now is whether to open and liberalize Egypt permitting a more democratic election or to personally choose and place his successor in position. The next question then is who that person would be. Who is best suited to succeed him? If he does not hand pick a successor and chooses to liberalize, Mubarak has to figure out what to do with the Islamists.
If Egypt permits the Islamists to run, they may just win the Egyptian election just like Hamas won the Palestinian election. Mubarak does not want that to happen. Neither do we.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday July 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States has decided to upgrade the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA now falls under the category of "general delegation."
Until now Palestinian status was that of a "mission." This boost in status is an attempt by the US to convince Palestinian President Abbas to sign on to the US peace plan.
The move is viewed by the PA as important and by the Israelis as a necessity. The problem with the way this upgrade has been bestowed upon the Palestinians is that these kinds of diplomatic moves should be rewards for deeds done - not enticements to achieve a diplomatic goal. Once given, the United States will not and cannot rescind this status, even if Abbas and the PA do not toe the line.
This is a classic diplomatic blunder. Hoping to achieve a goal and giving the reward before the goal is achieved will, in the end, turn out to be a wasted prize. The United States will not get what they want because the Palestinians no longer have any incentive to do what they are asked.
This is why diplomacy is an art. It requires more than good goals. It requires the nerves of a gambler who holds on tough and never shows weakness even when bluffing with a weak hand. The irony of it all is that the United States' hand was not weak, it was the Palestinians who, until now, had the weaker hand. Until now.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday July 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Houdini used to say there has never been a lock that cannot be picked.
The same can be said of fences and security system. The only question is how much time it will take.
That being said, I was not in the least surprised to see video footage of a Palestinian with a blowtorch cutting a whole in the famous underground iron wall that Egypt constructed in order to prevent smugglers from entering Gaza.
Where there is a will, there is always a way.
Smuggling dates back to the era of the Bedouins who roamed the region without fear of crossing borders. Smuggling across the border with Egypt is part of a long tradition in Gaza.
Today the smuggling business is a lucrative and important business. Smuggling is a driving force of the Gaza economy. Nothing will stop the smuggling, not even an iron wall.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday July 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian Nuclear Organization came out with an announcement yesterday: they are improving their fusion potential.
That small announcement is code for: Iran is set to build a nuclear fusion reactor.
Until now, Iran has been involved only in fission.
Fission is splitting a massive atom into two or more parts. Fission produces a lot of radiation and is perfect for an atomic bomb.
Fusion is fusing two or more atoms into one larger one. The fusion reaction is 3 to 4 times greater than the fission reaction.
The IRNA, Islamic Republic News Agency, announced that the Nuclear Organization is having a grand opening of their fusion facility on Saturday. If that is true, Iran will have mastered a new level of nuclear science and morphed into a super power.
I do not think this information is an accurate, but I do know that it is an Iranian dream.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday July 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
From the pictures and video I've seen, the new Gaza multi-floor, indoor, Western style shopping center looks very impressive.
The air conditioned mall houses clothing stores, food shops, designer stores, and all the products of international investors like Adidas and Lacoste.
Tens of thousands of people visited during in the first two days the mall was opened. It was a very impressive grand opening. Many probably came because of the air conditioning - a welcome respite from the sweltering heat of Gaza. Others may have come because it is the first shopping mall of its kind in Gaza. But make no doubt about it, the cash registers were ringing up sales.
The difficult part of this whole picture is rationalizing the international image which presents Gazans as a poor and suffering population in need of medical and monetary aid and this high end, upscale portrayal of Gazans.
We need better information. We need to know where the aid is and where the money is going. We need to know what really happens in Gaza.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday July 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Dr. Ayman Zawahiri has posted an audio file on an al Qaeda website taunting President Obama.
Zawahiri is the number two man in al Qaeda. In recent years, Zawahiri has been the man with the message. He has regularly and successfully delivered the word of Bin Laden to al Qaeda adherents.
The website has several message of import. One message is that Muslim leaders who collaborate with the West are more harmful to the Palestinians than are the Israelis.
Another message comes in the form of a moral lesson for the United States President: "Poor Obama comes to Kabul and he promises that Taliban shall not return to power ... You poor man, can you promise that your hordes will return safely to America?"
Zawahiri wants his followers to know Obama is wrong, he wants them to know that Western soldiers are going to die and he wants them to know that the Taliban is growing.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday July 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
First Belgium, then France. Now England. Even Spain is considering it.
Belgium and France have already passed laws against women wearing the burqa, the Islamic headdress worn by women, the headdress that covers the entire face, leaving only a thin slit for the eyes.
In England last week a poll was conducted asking 2,000 people what they thought about passing a British law similar to the French law, a law prohibiting the burqa.
67% of those polled are in favor of enacting such a law.
In Spain the subject of the burqa is already under discussion in the Parliament.
The masses reject the burqa for two very different reasons.
One reason is that the burqa covers a woman's face in public and that flies in the face of womens' freedoms and equality. A second is security, it is impossible to identify people if their faces are completely covered.
For it or against it, the burqa elicits a visceral reaction.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday July 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
George Mitchell, President Obama's Special Envoy in the Middle East, has been talking to the involved parties. Mitchell has spoken to both Abbas and Netanyahu about upgrading to direct talks.
In an interview in a Jordanian newspaper Abbas made clear what he needs to begin direct talks: He wants Israel to accept the pre-1967 borders, he also wants compensation for those who were displaced by Israel's creation in 1948.
The problem with these demands is that it leaves very little room for the direct talks.
Abbas' demands are called preconditions, they want them in order to gain advantage. In the end, preconditions stifle negotiations they don't advance them.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday July 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
There was a double suicide bombing in Iran. The attack took place in a Shiite Mosque in Zahedan.
The attack was timed to take place on the birthday of Hussein Mohammed's grandson and the progenitor of Shiite Islam. The Mosque was quiet as the Imam read from the Koran when the first explosion ripped thru the mosque.
The first the bomber was a man dressed as a woman. The second bomb exploded twenty minutes later. The one - two bomb attack is becoming a more and more common modus opperendi. At least 27 have been killed, many of them Iranian Revolutionary Guards who were in the mosque in honor of "Iranian Revolutionary Guard Day."
Jundallah, which translates to mean Soldiers of Allah is the Sunni group that has claimed responsibility for the bombings. This group is also responsible for another devastating explosion that took place in Oct of last year killing 40 people.
There is a resistance in Iran. Some reject tradition, some reject Shiite establishment. They all despise the Iranian leadership and their response is to unite and create a real resistance movement.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday July 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Last year Scotland released Lockerbie terrorist Abdel Basset al Megrahi and sent him back to Libya.
At the time, the assumption was that al Megrahi was in advanced stages of cancer and on his death bed. Doctors were predicting that the infamous terrorist had only weeks, maybe a month, to live. One of the conditions of his release was that al Megrahi would live out the remaining days of his life quietly and privately - no hoopla.
So what happened? Abdel Basset al Megrahi returned home to Libya as a hero.
And today, he is still alive and a public role model.
Typical, just typical.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday July 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Meetings between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have been postponed twice in the past week. Tuesday's meeting was postponed til Wednesday and is now rescheduled for Sunday.
The reason given for these postponements is said to be the ill health of Mubarak. A convenient excuse because almost everyone who monitors Egypt is worried about Mubarak's health - but probably a ruse.
Mubarak wants to wait until Sunday because George Mitchell has a meeting set up on Friday and Saturday with Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas. Abbas is also supposed to meet with Mubarak tomorrow, Thursday.
The real reason is that Mubarak needs to understand the responses of Israel and the Palestinians and then the Egyptian leader needs to try to create some real progress and move the parties together. Abbas has been apprehensive about moving on to direct talks unless there was real progress in the indirect talks.
All this will be unraveled in the upcoming week.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday July 13, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Saif Gaddafi is Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's son. He is also the head of the Libyan charity that is arranging the ship that departed from Greece headed to Crete and then on to Gaza.
The ship, flying under a Moldavian flag is called the Amalthea and is expected to arrive on Wednesday. Amalthea, known as the foster mother of Zeus, is also the third moon of Jupiter. Amalthea means tender goddess in Greek. Interestingly, in Arabic, amal means hope.
The Amalthea is carrying 2000 tons of food, 12 crew members and 15 activists.
Young Gaddafi was supposed to be on the ship. According to reports, he was on the vessel and his father demanded that he not embark. The fear was that Israel was gearing up to take make certain that the ship not reach Gaza.
Whatever happens, the Israelis will not permit this ship to break the blockade. Libya has said that they want to be practical and if Israel does not permit the aid to enter Gaza, they will get it there another way.
Probably through the Egyptian port of El Arish.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday July 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is going in the offensive.
According to Sunday's Iranian press, Iran is going on the offensive to counteract Western influence on their youth.
The Iranians are dispatching 1000 religious leaders to schools in order to fight the "brainwashing" of their students. The Iranians want to challenge Western influences on their children and prevent the next generation from being indoctrinated by the ideas of democracy and freedom.
Each of the 1000 leaders are themselves religious role models.
Ultimately, the Iranian objective will fail. It is impossible to effectively combat modern influences with doctrine and seclusion. The only way to confront modern freedom is by teaching respect.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday July 11, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League is scheduled to meet on July 29 to discuss and evaluate the status of the Palestinian - that's their way of saying Israeli indirect negotiations.
It was the Arab League that underwrote the idea of indirect talks in the first place. Now Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League, is saying that "we are now facing the failure of these negotiations."
The Arab League is composed of foreign ministers from 22 countries and 4 observers. The Arab League sets the tone on almost every foreign policy issue the Palestinians embark on.
The Arab League provides cover and protection. And now the Arab League is slowing down the peace process - which was the reason for indirect talks in the first place.
In the end, the Arab League will not torpedo direct talks nor will they halt any real progress and momentum that the United States is hoping for. It is a classic Arab League move, it is pure bluster.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday July 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel's Bureau for Counter Terrorism issued a warning to all Israelis advising them to be highly aware when travelling.
The Bureau normally issues very specific and precise warnings - this warning is very different.
Here is the text: "According to our intelligence, there continue to be threats of revenge, killings or kidnappings of Israelis traveling outside the country, especially business people and high-ranking ex-government officials."
In other words, Israelis traveling to any and all locations, be careful.
The best intelligence available is saying that Hezbollah is planning to attack Israelis. Hezbollah is monitoring major cities and major hotels, searching for Israeli targets. Hezbollah is ready to quickly snap into action when they find an appropriate target.
This is a real and very dangerous threat.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday July 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Mainstream press has been discussing the CNN news editor who tweeted that she greatly respected Shiite Sheik Fadallah, the religious icon of Hezbollah.
CNN was forced to sack Octavia Nasr after 20 years with the organization. It was simply unacceptable for a CNN editor to heap praise on a person who represented virulent anti-Western attitudes and openly embraced terrorism.
So, what is the difference between CNN and the British Foreign Ministry?
Frances Guy is the British ambassador to Lebanon. Guy blogged, as
opposed to tweeted, about the death of Sheik Fadallah.
The British ambassador to Lebanon wrote: "One of the privileges of being a diplomat is the people you meet; great and small, passionate and furious." "People in Lebanon like to ask me which politician I admire most."
She wrote that the Sheik "impressed her" more than almost any other leader and had "an impact on everyone he meets." "The world needs more men like him willing to reach out across faiths, acknowledging the reality of the modern world and daring to confront old constraints. May he rest in peace."
Frances Guy should be sacked immediately. What is the British foreign office waiting for?
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday July 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The ambassador from the United Arab Emirates to Washington, DC was interviewed at the Aspen Ideas Festival. The ambassador publically confirmed ideas that we have known for a long time.
He said that the UAE would prefer a US attack against Iran to Iran getting nuclear weapons.
The ambassador said:
"I think it's a cost-benefit analysis."
"I think despite the large amount of trade we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion ... there will be consequences, there will be a backlash and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country; that is going to happen no matter what."
"If you are asking me, 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran?,' my answer is still the same: 'We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.' I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the UAE."
As soon as this story hit the net, the UAE Deputy Foreign Minister went public disclaiming the comments and saying that they were taken out of context.
We now have confirmation: there is no doubt that the Arab world is against Iran going nuclear.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday July 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Mexico has shut down an attempt by Hezbollah to open an operations center.
The news was reported in the Kuwaiti paper al Seyasseh.
It has been assumed for some time now that Hezbollah is attempting to establish strongholds in locations that will allow for the ability to launch attacks against Western and pro-Israel targets.
Some experts have been claiming that Hezbollah intends to be local in their attacks. That simply is just not so. For two years Hezbollah has been rattling their sabers about plans to widen their field and arena of attack. Now we have a prime example of that intention.
Hezbollah is readying for expansion. Part of that expansion is the creation of centers that will help raise money. To do that, Hezbollah will draw on local Shiite affiliates to aid in their cause. Like Mexico.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday July 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Syrian President Bashar Assad is visiting Spain. While there Assad offered an important insight into the Middle East.
According to Assad, if Turkey and Israel do not mend their relations then "Turkey would find it difficult to continue its role as mediator."
The Syrian president is absolutely correct. Turkey has taken itself out of the game as a peace mediator.
More importantly, the region is now more unstable because Turkey is no longer a power that can exercise influence in both directions. Turkey cannot influence Israel and Turkey has no control over any Islamic leader.
Turkey has effectively upset the entire applecart of the Middle East and Syria realizes that the region has lost a very important tool for leverage in any future negotiations.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday July 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Summer time is camp time in Gaza.
This is the second year that Hamas has organized camps for children across Gaza. All total, there are about 500 Hamas camps servicing about 70,000 kids. Last week the staff spent a few days preparing and organizing, now the camps are up and running.
Most of the camps are in schools and almost all of them include time on the beach and in the Mediterranean Sea. Tuition is free.
Hamas promises that the programs will not include weapons training. But Hamas cannot be trusted. In the past, not only weapons training but also glorifying terrorism and suicide were season highlights.
This is color war of a very different order.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday July 4, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Today is US Independence Day. As is the tradition across the world, ambassadors and counsel generals have barbeques and invite VIPs and local leaders to celebrate this historic anniversary.
Israel is no different. Today, US Ambassador to Israel, James B. Cunningham, held a July 4th event. Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Liberman, did not attend. According to the foreign minister's office "The minister was on a tour of northern Israel and announced a few weeks ago that he would not be attending."
Israel's foreign minister missed the July 4th celebration hosted by the US ambassador. He did not miss the annual Independence Day celebrations of other countries, like Kenya and Kazakhstan.
This is a clear slap in the face to the United States. It is a slap in the face that, in this case, is long overdue.
Liberman has been regularly dissed by the United States. Even when this Israeli foreign minister is in Washington, DC he is not invited to meet with administration officials. Not a single person in the White House from the president down to his lowliest aides will meet with Avigdor Liberman - not in public and not even in private.
Like him or not, Liberman is also the Foreign Minister of Israel. That title alone should warrant official meetings with United States officials. It's called diplomacy, it's called protocol.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday July 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Tuesday July 6, US President Barak Obama will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The meeting will take place in Washington, DC.
Yesterday the White House announced that they are pleased with the progress of the indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. I'm glad that the United States is pleased because that is not at all the impression I have received from either the Israelis or the Palestinians - who have both expressed frustration with the other and with the United States.
Netanyahu is coming into this meeting with plans. But not plans about the Palestinians. Netanyahu has a plan for Iran and a plan for Syria.
The Israeli PM wants to confirm US commitments to confront Iran. On Iran, he wants to make certain that the US does not drop the ball and permit Iran to advance any further in their quest for nuclear technology.
Netanyahu also wants to see if there is any chance of movement on the Syrian side. He is convinced that the Palestinians cannot deliver on any deal and so the Syrian angle is an important distraction from the Palestinians.
It remains to be seen how the United States will react to Israel's plans.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday July 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The arrest of 11 Russian spies, part of an espionage ring that had infiltrated the United States, has been grabbing headlines for a few days now.
Experts have said how amateurish these spies were and how suburban they were. None of that is really important.
The essential reality is that the United States is inundated with spies. Spies sent by enemies and spies sent by friends.
Another reality is that most of these spies are worthless. They have almost no insight and no contacts. They cannot interpret information and they have no idea of what is important and what is ludicrous.
Most of these spies read newspapers and troll websites. Intel officers back home have better knowledge of what is happening than most of these spies on the ground in the US. The only advantage the spies have is that they can monitor and judge the attitude of the people on the streets and in the suburbs. But even that is faulty information.
There is no way of judging what America feels by eavesdropping in Walmart. Most Americans are insulated from real issues and only live within the four limited sides of the tiny cubicles called their lives.
Yes there are spies ... yes most are useless ... and yes ... every once in a while they nonetheless deliver very compromising information. That's why they're here.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday July 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iran amended their "Law for the Support of Palestine." This law imposed a boycott on all Israeli goods, on all Jewish owned companies and on companies that outwardly do business with Israel.
The amendment also requires that an annual report be presented on the status of the boycott. That puts Coke, IBM, Intel, Nestles directly in the cross hairs or Iran.
Practically speaking, Iran only has about 73 million people. Not a huge market, but large enough to sting these companies. By comparison Israel's population is only 7, 587,000 about a tenth of Iran's.
Iran's hope is that others will join in the boycott. All these companies are searching for emerging markets and hope to expand. Iran knows that if more countries join the boycott, even in name only, significant pressure will be brought on these big companies to abandon Israel.
Iran wants to show how they can isolate Israel and how they can move international corporations to conform to their will. They are implementing their own boycott in the context of additional sanctions being brought on them.
Iran intends to use their boycott as a tool to repel the sanctions.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday June 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Abdullah King of Saudi Arabia met with President Obama in the White House. They lunched and engaged in a very substantive discussion.
The king and the president had three topics on their agenda:
empowering the Saudi Army to adequately confront Iran
the Palestinian-Israeli peace plan
Iran's nuclear plan
Saudi Arabia is not a friend of Iran. The United States is playing some very important cards which would place Saudi Arabia in the front line of a conflict.
About the Saudi army: Obama promised to help strengthen the Saudi army. If rumors are to be believed, the United States will also supply the Saudis with another 70 F-16s to bolster their air-force.
About the peace plan: The Saudis have advanced a Palestinian/Israeli plan and were the advocates of normalizing relations with Israel. If the US and the Saudis can create a real strategy, they will set their agenda in motion.
About the nuclear plan: Both sides agreed to fight Iran's nuclear advancement.
The US and the Saudis have a mutual agenda and that agenda might be well on the way of being advanced. This plan has not really been made public. There have been discussions about these new-old plans but this is the first time we are seeing Saudi Arabia in official discussions with the Obama White House.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday June 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Deputy Chief of Hezbollah, Sheik Naim Kassam, announced that Hezbollah has no interest in conducting dialogue with the United States.
How strange. Kassam had been responding to US overtures to begin discussions with Hezbollah. Mid East experts had been pushing for a change in policy toward Hezbollah. The goal was to bring Hezbollah into the realm of respectable organizations and leading political parties. And now this.
Hezbollah won't speak to the US until the US changes its entire Middle East policy.
Hezbollah knows what they are and Hezbollah knows what the US represents.
Hezbollah knows how far they will go to fulfill their ideals.
But Hezbollah does not know and cannot understand the US. Unfortunately the US does not always understand who they are and what they represent.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday June 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday General Tamim, the Chief of Police of Dubai, said that Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan should have been sacked long ago for blundering the assassination of Hamas leader Mabouh.
Tamim said:
"Dagan should have resigned a long time ago as his intelligence service has been widely exposed by Dubai police and the world especially with the recent expulsion of Israelis diplomats from Western countries. We recommended him to save face and resign but he didn't."
There is no doubt where Dubai stands and there is no doubt that Dubai has scored a series of important post assassination victories. There is also no doubt that Dagan will not step down from his position because of Mabouh's assassination - about which Israel has not said a word.
Dagan will be stepping down as Chief of Israel's Mossad because, quite simply, his tenure has already been extended for two terms - once under Prime Minister Olmert and the second under Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Dagan's time is up because in democracies even secret services must rotate out their people.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday June 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Venezuela yesterday. The visit is being called historic, it is being touted as a visit that will transform the world.
Assad met with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. The two dictators signed a $100 million trade agreement. They declared that Arab and South American cultures should unite against United States imperialism.
"Arab civilization and our civilization, the Latin American one, are being summoned in this new century to play the fundamental role of liberating the world, saving the world from the imperialism and capitalist hegemony that threaten the human species."
Chavez punched the point by saying: "Syria and Venezuela are at the vanguard of this struggle."
Chavez wants to unite the developing world.
Chavez is attempting to unite the developing world by positioning the West and the United States as exploiters of the developing world.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday June 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Dutch police have publicly announced that they will be using "decoy Jews" to fight anti-Semitism.
There has been a rise of anti-Semitism in Amsterdam. Most recently, a rabbi was harassed while doing nothing more than walking along a street in Amsterdam.
These decoys will be undercover cops. They will probably wear kippot, sport long beards and some will probably adopt an even more ultra orthodox look. The minister of justice said that in the past, these decoys have been very effective at capturing hard to catch criminals.
The unfortunate reality is that anti-Semitism is becoming more and more acceptable in Europe. Thankfully, democracies are still using this prejudice as a litmus test through which they can better understand their own societies.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday June 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's former ambassador to Syria made an announcement yesterday saying that the Iranian flotilla was not setting sail for Gaza as originally scheduled.
Hussein Sheik el Islam, who now heads the Iranian Organization to Protect Palestinians, said that Iran will not send this ship because the "Zionists" (the Israelis) have made it clear that they will interpret it as an act of war. He also said that Iran also has another ship ready to depart Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
For weeks Iran has been promising to send ships and aid. On more than one occasion they claimed that they actually were sending the flotilla - but that was for media consumption only.
Now Iran is not only admitting that the ship will not sail, they are also explaining why it will not sail. That's unusual.
Usually, Iran would rather lie than tell the truth if it makes them look weak. In this case the Iranians are more likely to shove off with great fanfare and then turn around than show weakness. That explains why they coupled the cancellation with a promise of future flotillas. They also said that all the aid will be delivered to Gaza using a different method.
We'll see.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday June 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced yesterday that in the next few days a conference call will take place between Brazil, Turkey and Iran.
The purpose of "the meeting," as they referred to the conference call, is to discuss the nuclear conversion energy deal that they agreed upon last month.
Turkey and Brazil have been insisting that this new agreement with Iran is a real chance for compromise and a way of moving all parties back from the brink of war.
At this point it is highly unlikely that this highly unorthodox agreement between Iran Turkey and Brazil will have an impact on the real status of the conflict between Iran and the West.
Simply put, neither the West nor the rest of the Muslim, has any faith in Iran.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday June 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Israel launched another spy satellite. It was the Ofek 9 spy satellite.
The Ofek 9 reaches a whole new level of spy capabilities. With this launch Israel now has multiple spy satellites crisscrossing the world all at the same time.
Israel has anywhere between 3 and 6 satellites in the sky. That means that Israel can, independently, cover the world - with no need for aid from any other nation. It means that Israel can now see arms movements, people movements, even cars along with their license plates and drivers.
In this age of intelligence, satellite images are a significant element in decision making everywhere from local police to the most secretive, sensitive corridors of power.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday June 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
There is another leaking oil rig in the world.
This leak is much smaller and it is in the Red Sea.
The leak was made public by the Middle East News Agency (MENA) on Monday. MENA asked the Egyptian Government spokesman about the leak point blank and the spokesman admitted that there is a "limited oil leak."
The term limited is not too specific. But we do know that oil has washed up on the shores of a very popular Egyptian Red Sea resort called Hurghada.
This leak must be plugged. Where is the public outrage and outcry? It's all a matter of location.
There is little doubt that information about this leak will even get out. The Egyptian government is not in the business of free flow of information.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday June 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
At least 12 United States ships, including an aircraft carrier, passed thru the Suez Canal this weekend. An Israeli ship accompanied the US naval group.
The most critical point in this scenario is that now the US Naval group is in position to confront both the Iranian challenge and/or the Hezbollah challenge should either of them occur.
The Mediterranean Sea is not that big but it is a stepping stone to Europe Now, more than ever, it is essential that the US protect the Mediterranean Sea from the Iranians.
Iran wants to influence the entire world and they have a plan to carry it out.
The next step is to move expand their influence beyond Hezbollah and Hamas to include the surrounding areas.
If left unchecked, in just a few years Iran will have near total control of the Mediterranean Sea, the gateway to Europe.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday June 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
No one who understands the Middle East will be surprised.
Others might be.
The Middle East is a complex, multi-faceted region. Here is one good example:
Pew Research Center, a non-partisan polling outfit headquartered in Washington DC, asked 25,000 respondents in 22 Muslim countries about Iran, about Iran's nuclear ambitions and about whether or not a military strike is an acceptable means to stop Iran.
The overwhelming majority said that Iran should not have nuclear technology.
The hold out country is Pakistan.
In 16 of the 22 countries there was agreement that a military strike should be used to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear technology.
In Egypt 55% said they agreed with a military strike against Iran and only 16% actually disagreed.
In Jordan 53% said yes to a military strike while 20% objected.
The numbers are telling - they prove a very important point that only the people who know, know.
Iran and Iranian nuclear technology are not welcome in the Middle East, this is much larger than a simple US/Israel issue.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday June 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The US and the EU have ratcheted up the Iranian sanctions.
The fourth set of sanctions has been now been passed through the UN Security Council. And now the US and EU have independently increased their own sanctions.
Russia is very upset.
They called the actions of the US and the EU "unacceptable."
"For us, attempts to place oneself above the Security Council in this way are unacceptable," the official Foreign Ministry statement said.
Included in these new sanctions will be Iranian oil companies and banks and the businesses controlled by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Russian leaders think that the US and EU are being unfair. Unfair? Yes... unfair.
Russia only voted for sanctions against Iran because they were watered down.
Now Russian is claiming that the US and EU are putting themselves above the Security Council.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday June 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
This week, Syria had some very interesting visitors from the United States.
According to SANA, the official Syrian state news agency, executives from Dell, Microsoft, Cisco, Symantec and VeriSign all paid a visit to Damascus. They met with the Minister of Higher Education.
These high level executives are courting Syria. They want to open offices in Syria.
Syria is coming out of the dog house, Wall St style or, more accurately, Silicon Valley style.
There is no good reason for these businesses to expand into Syria except to save money. Given what we know about Syrian higher education and technology, this will be a huge business mistake. It might also be a serious security blunder. Syria could become the easiest portal through which to launch a cyber attack against these companies. If not a cyber attack, then sabotage.
If I were a stock holder in any of these companies, I would be up in arms.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday June 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel and China are expanding their diplomatic relations and mutual investments. The result will be seen in significant improvements in diplomacy and understanding.
Israel's Minister of Tourism, Stas Misezhnikov, just visited China. The two countries agreed to have a conference and expand tourism. What that really means is that Chinese tourists will now be going to Israel.
China has about 47 million outgoing tourists a year, the largest number of outgoing tourists in the world. If a very small percent of the 47 million come to Israel that alone will result in a huge increase in Israel's tourism industry. It will also have a tremendous impact on China because, by definition, those Chinese tourists coming to Israel will be people of power, China’s leading decision makers and business leaders.
China's modus operandi is to use real politic to determine foreign policy. Their operation has now been expanded to include Israel.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday June 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday a ship heading for Gaza departed Iran fully loaded with toys, food and construction supplies.
Iran claims that another ship will depart on Friday and is asserting that 100,000 Iranians have signed up to sail to Gaza. In addition, 3 Iranian Parliamentarians will be visiting Gaza this week entering via Egypt.
Will the Iranian ships reach Gaza? I doubt it. Permitting Iran to enter the Mediterranean Sea will shift the balance of power. That means that the Iranians can be turned back by the United States navy.
It is also possible that the ship will just disappear. The alternative is worse. If the Iranian ship succeeds in coming close to Gaza, Israel will not permit the ship to break the blockade.
Elite members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are probably aboard the ship lying in wait for an Israeli boarding.
The entire situation is explosive.
The Middle East might light up like a tinder box.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday June 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad has been very busy since the passage of the new sanctions against Iran.
This weekend when interviewed by Iranian State TV the Iranian president said that this vote proves the irrelevance of the Security Council. He called it "the end of the Security Council." He said that the purpose of the Council is a "suppressive tool in the hands of world powers."
In another interview Ahmadinejad said that the United States and Israel were trying to drive a wedge between Iran and their neighbor Saudi Arabia.
The truth is that Saudi Arabia has a very suspicious, problematic, tense, antagonistic and even bellicose and belligerent relationship with Iran. They are far apart diplomatically and their relationship can best be described as tense. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not and do not intend to be friends and that has nothing to do with either the United States or Israel.
Ahmadinejad is blustering - about everything.
The UN Security Council is problematic but has more value than almost any other division of the United Nations.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday June 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Four terrorists sentenced to death for the murder of a US diplomat in escaped from prison in Khartoum Sudan yesterday.
The terrorists crawled through a sewage pipe which led to the main street and then fled.
Their crime was murdering John Granville, 33 years old and originally from Buffalo, NY. Granville and his driver a local Sudanese hire were returning from a New Year's Eve party held at the British Embassy in 2008. It was 2:30 AM. They were overtaken and their car was riddled with 17 bullets.
In 1973 two United States diplomats were murdered in Khartoum by Palestinian terrorists. Sudan has been a haven for terrorists, but with that exception, there had been a tacit understanding that assassinations should not take place in the Sudanese capital and that Sudanese terrorists should not attack Western diplomats.
This terrorist action and the subsequent break out are a significant transformation of the terrorist modus in Khartoum.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
I've Been Thinking:
Friday June 11, 2010
All it took was one day.
The day after new United Nations sanctions were imposed on Iran, Russia took matters into its own hands and modified the rules of sanction.
These were the fourth sanctions imposed on Iran by the Security Council. The permanent members of the Security Council all voted in favor. But not easily. Russia and China were real hold outs. Russia made certain that the sanctions were watered down to permit dealings and interaction. Now we know why.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that Russia is in negotiations with Iran to build more new nuclear power plants. On Thursday Lavrov said: "We are discussing these (new plants) with our Iranian partners, we are practically discussing this now."
Is anybody surprised? I hope not.
Russia and Iran have outsmarted the United States once again.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday June 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The UN Security Council passed its fourth round of sanctions against Iran.
That Russia and China voted in favor of the sanctions is a huge success for the United States. It was Brazil and Turkey who voted against sanctions while Lebanon abstained.
Yesterday, on the very day that the vote took place, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that he has never seen a sanctions program that worked. He cited North Korea as an example saying sanctions have not stopped North Korean from furthering their nuclear program.
Ahmadinejad has said that Russian should think hard about siding with Iran's enemies. Iran has also said that sanctions will have no impact on them. His exact quote about sanctions is that "they are not worth one cent."
The weakness of these sanctions is clear, they do not crack down on either Iranian international banking or trade. That means that Russia can still sell and deliver their highly advanced S-300 missile system to Iran without violating the sanction.
Putin knows what he is talking about.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday June 9, 2010
I've Thinking:
The United States has made a formal request of Yemen and the United States has been rejected.
The US asked Yemen to extradite Yemeni-American Sheik Anwar al-Awlaki. And Yemen said no.
Sheik Anwar al-Awlaki is not just any sheik. He used to preach in the US but has been in Yemen since 2004. Awlaki is the religious mentor that the Fort Hood terrorist corresponded with. He is the person who influenced the Christmas plane bomber. He is the voice that the Time Square Bomber listened to on line.
This man and his teachings are all over the world wide web. Among haters of the West and haters of the United States, Awlaki's teachings are particularly attractive.
Shutting Awlaki down would be a huge success for the United States.
Bringing Awlaki to trial and then ultimately convicting him turns Awlaki into an extremely high value target.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday June 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has made two very important moves and they must be monitored.
# 1: President Ahmadinejad has embarked on a diplomatic trip to Turkey, China and Tajikistan.
# 2 Iran has signed up 8,000 young adults to join flotillas which will sail to Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid. Iran promises to sign up another 8,000 by next week. They claim that their first flotilla will set sail on Sunday.
I doubt that the flotilla will sail on Sunday.
What Iran is doing is setting the stage for a series of important diplomatic moves.
Turkey is the key to Iran's uranium enrichment deal. He is there to attend the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
China holds the key to sanctions at the Security Council.
Tajikistan is the 3rd largest grower of poppy in the world and has a huge opium and heroin trade.
The flotilla is Iran's kick off to an ingenious public relations campaign.
Iran is set to shake up the entire world.
Iran is flying in the face of the United States.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday June 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Pope Benedict the XVI wound up his visit to Cyprus with a scathing attack against radical Islam.
He said: "Extremist (Islamic) currents, clearly a threat to everyone, Christians and Muslims alike, require a treatment in common."
Pope Benedict has been developing this theme for years, but for the past 18 months his fear has remained practically dormant because of the backlash that met his previous comments.
This Pope understands radical Islam. He as written about it and has taught about it. Whatever it was that stimulated Pope Benedict XVI to speak out against radical Islam once again and express this strong concern, it had to have inspired fear.
Radical Islam is dangerous.
Pope Benedict XVI is issuing a warning to us all.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday June 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
An Egyptian court has ruled that any Egyptian citizen married to an Israeli be stripped of their Egyptian citizenship.
The court handed down their ruling and has now advised the government to implement the law on the grounds that marriage to an Israeli compromises the Egyptian and allows for the possibility that the Egyptian will be used to spy on Egypt.
This entire scenario is indicative of Egypt's bureaucratic point of view on Israel.
Much of Egypt's intelligentsia and the Egyptian elite have nothing but disdain for Israel and for the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.
This prevalent Egyptian attitude is often hidden from the West and from the public eye.
In Egypt, political leadership keeps things like this under wraps.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday June 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Irish government has come to a very fair agreement with Israel over the ship that set sail from Ireland en route to Gaza. The agreement is that the ship will dock in Ashdod Israel and unload. The cargo will be checked and then Israel will deliver it to Gaza.
Yesterday, late in the day, the crew that was intent on busting the blockade busted the agreement - they refused to go along with the arrangement.
After hearing this and recognizing the severity and the danger their citizens were in, the Irish Government issued a statement: "the Government demands that (Israel) demonstrate every restraint" when it intercepts the ship.
The Turkish flotilla is only the beginning of a very long wave of blockade busting ships. The summer activity for a certain segment of people will be joining ships destined for Gaza.
Israel has learned a lesson, of that I am sure.
Israel will find other ways to tow ships to Ashdod without endangering Israeli commandos.
Israel will not abandon this blockade.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday June 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has taken it on the chin for blockading Gaza.
But let's look at some of the facts surrounding the blockade.
It is not a secret. Israel has been shutting off sea and land access to Hamas in order to make certain that few weapons, ammo and rockets will get into Gaza and into the hands of terrorists. Whatever gets into Gaza will, ultimately, be used to attack Israel.
Not only Israel. Egypt is also a part of the blockade. Over the past six months Egypt has done an admirable job of keeping their border with Gaza blocked.
But despite it all, Israel still delivers 10,000 tons of humanitarian aid per week to Gaza. And yesterday Israel finished checking the flotilla's cargo and decided to send the safe cargo to Gaza - over land, not sea.
And what happened in the end?
Hamas refused to accept the aid that arrived via Israel.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday June 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Several important pieces of information have become clear about the humanitarian flotilla.
The group that organized the ships is called IHH. They are headquartered in Turkey and according to terror watch groups around the world IHH has been funding terror for years. A Danish Institute for International Studies report as early as 2006 that the IHH has funded and sent terrorists to, among other countries, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya.
Israel has now interviewed most of the people involved in the lynch. They have determined that almost every single one of the people on board the ship had an affiliation with terror or extremist groups like the Islamic Brotherhood.
We have an obligation to understand exactly what transpired on that boat.
Perhaps the Israelis should not have even boarded the ship, but they did and nothing can justify or whitewash the events that followed.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday June 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
There has been two types of media coverage on the Israeli boarding of the human rights flotilla headed to Gaza.
Type # 1: Total condemnation. This group immediately attacked Israel using the terms murderers and terrorists. They view this event as an unprovoked attack against innocent human rights activists.
The Muslim world falls into this category. They fall into line and condemn Israel. For most of this group, facts really do not matter and the real story would not change their understanding of the event.
Type # 2: Sheer disbelief. This group saw the video of the Israelis boarding the ship and immediately understood that the Israeli soldiers were beaten, threatened and stabbed.
A whole group of people concerned about the truth. Not politics not propaganda... but the truth of the story should lead. Many Western leaders, including the president of the United States, fall into this category.
This story is not going away. Pictures are too graphic. Emotions are running too high. Facts are too easy to throw by the wayside.
This will be a seminal in Israeli/Muslim relations.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday May 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is elated that the UN Review Conference on Nuclear Non-Proliferation called on Israel to publicly divulge all of its nuclear secrets.
Iran's IAEA representative has been quoted saying how excited he is that the United States will now have to take Israel to task. Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that the US must now demand Israel open all of it secret nuclear facilities to international inspectors.
He said: "The US reservation is symbolic and it is obliged to go along with the world's request, which is that Israel must join the NPT and open its installations to IAEA inspectors."
Ironic? Not in the eyes of Iran.
Hypocritical? Not in the eyes of Iran.
Funny? Not really, Iran is serious about this.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday May 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Prime Minister Netanyahu is fast at work preparing for his meeting with President Obama.
Nukes and peace will be the two central items on the agenda.
Nukes: The United States will continue to pressure Israel to come clean and go public with details about their nuclear program.
Peace: The United States will continue to demand that Israel make concessions, even though they are one-sided concessions.
Netanyahu and by extension, his advisers, are baffled by the US stance on these issues. His mission during this meeting will be to try to convince Obama to change his stance.
Netanyahu will have his work cut out for him.
The United States truly believes that the best way to forge a Middle East Peace is to force a nuclear free zone in the region.
This idea is a clear misunderstanding of the Middle East and entirely preposterous.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday May 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The scene could have come out of Mel Brooks movie.
It takes place near Najajf, Iraq, actually 20 miles south of Najaf, in the town of al Mishkhab.
$5 million US dollars is stolen from the state-run Al-Rafidain Bank. It was an inside job.
It happened at the crack of dawn. A guard in the bank slipped a mickey into the tea of his fellow guards. It was a sleeping pill. After they were all asleep the guard-turned-bank-robber made off with the cash.
This is so very funny because Iraq is truly becoming like very other country, and of course, who would have thought about giving a sleep drug to guards? Only another guard, of course.
Obviously, the bank robber's identity is known. Now it is only a matter of time until the guard is apprehended and the money, or at least, most of the money is returned. This guy watches the wrong movies.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday May 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
After it became clear that Russia will be backing the new international sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council, some serious words were exchanged between Iran and Russia.
Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the press that he was not certain whether Russia was a "friend or an enemy." In response, the Russian foreign minister said that the Iranian president was "venting his rage."
Here's a news flash: Ahmadinejad does not show rage in public.
Ahmadinejad is never caught off guard and any pathos he shows is well choreographed. He is very effective and always maintains control. Anger is a tool and emotion is a vehicle and this Iranian leader has mastered the art and skills of political communications.
Ahmadinejad never believed that Russia was a friend.
Iran knows that Russia is always up for sale.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday May 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United Nations Review Conference on Nuclear Energy is about to wrap up.
The Conference began with Ahmadinejad raving about US and Western countries butting into the business of others.
The Conference is ending with 189 countries issuing a declaration about the status and dangers of nuclear development in the world today.
The 29 page draft does not contain a single word about Iran or about the Iranian nuclear program. Not a single word - and why? Because the Iranians said they would veto the declaration if they were mentioned. So the powers that be left Iran out.
This decision shows the Conference to be nothing but a sham.
If Iran cannot be castigated today given the political climate and given the public comments emanating from Iran and given Iran's record of compliance, then it is clear that the international community has given up trying to control Iran's nuclear ambitions.
That is sad.
That is scary.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday May 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Syria President Bashar Assad met with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in Damascus on Sunday.
Emboldened by the meeting, Assad is making some serious statements about the United States and by extension, about the West and about its role in the Middle East.
"If the West wants security and stability to be established in the Middle East, [it] must start to play an effective role to contain Israel and put an end to its extremist policies."
The bottom line is that Syria thinks the way the rest of the Middle East thinks. The problem with that way of thinking is that despite some ups and downs in their relationship this is hardly the beginning of the end of the special relationship between Israel and the US.
Assad is trying to take advantage of the now bumpy relationship between the United States and Israel to announce the Arab point of view to both the Muslim and the Western world.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday May 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is making threats.
Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, said that Iran will scrap any deal involving enriching uranium outside of Iran if another level of sanctions is enacted.
Larijani made the announcement in an interview broadcast on national Iranian media.
This is not an idle threat by Iran. Iran embarked on their new deal with Turkey and Brazil assuming that the new sanctions would be instituted.
Iran and Iranian allies will now blame the Western world for preventing progress that would solve the stalemate. Non-Western countries will almost certainly be convinced that Iran did its all and that Iranian attempts at compliance were stymied.
Once again, Iran is doing an end around the West.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday May 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Russia has just announced that they will be supplying Iran with the new and very sophisticated S - 300 missile. This S - 300 will make it much more difficult for the United States and/or Israel to strike Iran.
Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Parliament, Mikhail Margelov, made it very clear when he said: "Russia is a responsible supplier to international markets and it has no interest in working towards arming the Middle East."
The only problem is that Russia is arming the Middle East. And even after new sanctions against Iran were decided upon, Russia is still supplying Iran with very highly sophisticated weapons. Their argument that previous agreements must be upheld is a sorry excuse for their behavior.
There is no reason to supply Iran with these weapons. But Russia wants and needs the money and Russia wants and needs to secure a reputation for providing weapons to problematic parts of the world.
Russia should be first warned, next censured and then punished if they violate sanctions against Iran or, for that matter, against any other country.
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Friday May 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Israeli military censor has just made public important intelligence, making it clear for publication.
The now-public intelligence clarifies the exact type of missile that Syria has transferred to Hezbollah. The missile is an M-600, a homemade Syrian missile which is a copy of an Iranian missile which is a copy of the Chinese DF 11A missile. The number of rockets transferred reaches into the hundreds.
The M-600 is smaller than a SCUD and can be launched much faster. It is much more accurate than a SCUD and has a range of 200 miles. It weighs 3.5 tons and has a half ton war head. This weapon is even more dangerous than the SCUD.
Hundreds of M-600s in the hands of Hezbollah is a chilling thought. The biggest questions are how do you defend against the M-600 and how do you knock them out. Because of their quick launch time, the M-600 cannot be easily hit before it is activated.
An all out defensive is the only real response to the M-600. That is a very costly venture for Israel to undertake.
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Thursday May 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Late Tuesday Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had his meeting with Israeli president Shimon Peres.
Peres proposed a unique idea to resolve the tension in the Middle East.
He asked Medevdev to relay a message to Syria.
Peres said that Israel was willing to cede and withdraw from the entire Golan Heights if Syria would drop it ties with Iran and stop their cross border smuggling and open house policy for terrorists.
So far, there has been no response.
This is a case of Israel calling Syria’s bluff.
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Wednesday May 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hezbollah has been running "Student Jihad Tours."
The objective is to expose university students to Hezbollah's history and heroism.
Hezbollah filled five buses with Christian and Muslim students for a weekend of education and indoctrination.
One student said it was like being in Disney World. They were shown how to shoot rockets, they were brought to the sites of famous battles, they met with Hezbollah fighter and leaders.
In the course of the "tour" the participants grew to admire the terrorists. A student was quoted on the Al Arabia web site as saying that they (the participants) believe that these people are fighter and heroes - not like the rest of the world who see them as terrorists.
Hezbollah is working the PR angle from the inside out.
Hezbollah is trying to recruit and convince Lebanese citizens to join their public relations campaign around the world.
That is the real purpose of the tours, the students are Hezbollah's means to their end.
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Tuesday May 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The new agreement allowing Iran to export uranium, have it enriched in Turkey, then returned to Iran, is good news for Iran.
It helps Iran because Iran gets the Uranium.
It helps Iran because it appears as if the Iranians are complying with a compromise.
It helps Iran because it does not stop Iran from enriching their own uranium at home.
The agreement is a sham.
Iran has no interest in giving up their enrichment. This agreement gives them license to continue enriching and even advancing beyond their given 20% allowance.
Once again, Iran is the big winner.
Once again, the world shows just how gullible we all are when it comes to Iran.
Kudos to Iran, they have outsmarted us all once again.
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Monday May 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The recount in Iraq is finally concluded. Now the real work begins.
Ever since the March election there have been claims about fixes in certain provinces and questions about who really won. Now the recount is official and the truth has emerged. The recount confirms the exact numbers of the earlier election.
This is bad news for Nuri al Maliki the current leader of Iraq and the head of the Shiite Coalition party. Al Maliki's party did not win a plurality in the 325 seat Parliament, on the contrary, the party earned only 89 seats. Even if all Shiites join together they would only reach 159 seats and fail to garner the 163 seats needed to rule.
The secular al Iraqia party has won the plurality of 91 seats.
It is unclear who will successfully form the coalition of parties necessary to rule. Both the Shiite Coalition party and the Iraqia party will try. It is also legally unclear who gets priority to begin trying to form the coalition.
We can only watch and wait.
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Sunday May 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel's Foreign Minister, Avigdor Liberman, announced that North Koreans are responsible for the proliferation and spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
On Israeli Army Radio Liberman declared: "To our regret we see a mad arms race in the country. Everything must be done in order to thwart their attempts to reach a nuclear capability."
He said: "Up until today there were neither sanctions against Iran nor against North Korea. They need to be completely closed in terms of financial activities; the two states need to understand they are dependent on the supply of petrol because they have no refineries."
The Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman called Liberman an "ultra extremist" and "an imbecile in diplomacy." Given the antipathy directed toward Israel and Liberman this is no surprise.
Liberman is making a link between Iran and North Korea.
North Korea wants to distance itself from Iran and stay out of the limelight while also trying to radicalize Israel.
Who is more believable - North Korean or Liberman and Israel?
In this case - there is no doubt that North Korea is not credible.
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Saturday May 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Syria is enormously pleased with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's trip to the Middle East. And why shouldn't they be?
Russia promised to supply Syria with a slew of MiG-29's and a battery of anti-aircraft weapons. Of course Syria is elated, any fighter plane is a quantum improvement for the antiquated Syrian air-force.
The MiG - 29 is hardly the best plane in the Russian arsenal. Russia has not updated the technology since the 1980's and last year they grounded all MiG - 29's. They are now selling them off at the good deal of $25-29 million a piece. That's a very good price for a flawed weapon.
The MiG -31 and MiG -27 have been updated and upgraded.
The MiG - 29 is simply an old fighting machine.
FYI MiG stands for Mikoyan - Gurevich the names of the two men who created the company.
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Friday May 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Russia has suggested bringing Hamas into the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Round 1:
That was the announcement made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during his recent trip to the Middle East.
Round 2:
Yesterday Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman shot back comparing Hamas to Chechnian terrorists. He said: "Developed countries cannot separate terrorists into good ones and bad ones based on their geographic location."
Round 3:
Russia responded by saying that they will not be intimidated by Israel.
Russia truly believes that the best way to bring about an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians is to make certain that Hamas is also at the table.
Russia is wrong.
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Wednesday May 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, visited Damscus and had a meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The press conference afterward was telling.
Assad insisted that further sanctions will not be successful in stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear technology. He said that that sanctions will not make the region safer. Assad proclaimed that "it is every country's right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes."
Syria has already attempted to create a nuclear facility with the help of the North Koreans.
Iran and Syria are linked in their desire to attain nuclear weapons. They are linked because they believe that the United States is leading a cabal preventing them from becoming a nuclear power. They consider nuclear status to be their right. Ahmadinejad even uses the term inalienable right when speaking of developing nuclear energy.
They are wrong. It is a privilege that must be earned through trust. Neither Syria nor Iran has yet to earn that trust.
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Monday May 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday within hours of an announcement made by Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell saying that there would a moratorium on building, Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat announced that he will continue to build in Jerusalem.
Barkat proclaimed that Jerusalem needs to expand and that he will build for Jews and for Arabs in Jerusalem as long as the Israeli Ministry of Housing provides permission to build.
In Barkat's eyes both Arabs and Jews need new homes in Jerusalem and the budget is already provided. Not to build is counterproductive and is not a part of his vision for Jerusalem.
Barkat is not a settler, he is not an expansionist. He understands Jerusalem - Jerusalem is a city of Arabs and a city of Jews.
The "Proximity Talks" will fail.
The Palestinians are counting on the Jews to build in Jerusalem. For them it is an excuse to torpedo the talks. For the Israelis it is a necessary for survival.
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Sunday May 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
I need to explain the rationale of the new "Proximity Talks."
Proximity Talks is the euphemism for indirect talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians mediated by US special presidential envoy George Mitchell.
The presumption going into the talks is that each side assumes that the other will torpedo the talks - an interesting assumption, to be sure.
The Palestinians do not want the talks. They want to see Israel fail and fail big with diplomatic egg all over their faces. The Palestinians have made it clear that they will walk away from the talks if there is so much as a single bit of construction in the West Bank. The Palestinians want the US to pressure Israel to give in on a number of issues without negotiations. They want the US to force Israel to relax their stand and to literally roll over on issues - all as punishment for violations like settlement activity.
The Israelis want security. They know that the Palestinians cannot deliver security. As a result, they are certain that Hamas will destroy any potential agreement. Israel knows that Abbas cannot deliver basic issues in terms not only of security but also of police and organization. The Israelis are waiting it out, they are hoping that after the Palestinians fail, it will be clear to the US that the Palestinians were never committed to a real agreement.
Both sides are counting on the other to stumble.
The chances of success are, obviously, meager at best.
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Saturday May 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Thursday Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki hosted a dinner at his United Nations ambassador residence. His guests were all the members of the UN Security Council.
This dinner was a very bold move. It is rare that Security Council members are invited to dinner for what Iran called a "frank discussion." It was assumed that people on the ambassadorial level would not, themselves, attend. In the end the ambassadors of 11 of the 15 members participated. Only the US, Russia, Britain and France did not send ambassadors. They sent other representatives in their stead.
The Iranian Foreign Minister explained that it was not a negotiation, but a discussion. Everyone in attendance came because, as the United States explained, they were there in the hope "of hearing something new."
Iran is moving to stop another round of sanctions. The Iranians argued that they have the right to pursue safe nuclear energy. The dinner guests argued that Iran must work harder to convince the international community that they are trustworthy.
Never underestimate Iran.
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Friday May 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Israeli mass circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth has made public their investigation into Richard Goldstone.
Goldstone, a South African Jew who authored the scathing report condemning Israel's actions during their conflict with Hamas during Operation Caste Lead, was a judge in South Africa during the 1980's and 1990's under the Apartheid Regime.
Judge Goldstone sentenced at least 28 blacks to death.
Judge Goldstone sentenced people to be lashed for listening to anti-Apartheid audio tapes.
When asked about these decisions Goldstone's defense was that he was just following the laws of the country.
Alan Dershowitz was repulsed by Goldstone's comments.
Dershowitz recalled Mengele's defense which was that he was just following orders.
Hannah Arendt wrote a compelling thesis explaining the "banality of evil" after witnessing the trial of Adolf Eichmann trial in Jerusalem. The Eichmann defense was that he was but a part of larger system, following orders, a cog in a wheel.
Goldstone should know that morally and legally his is a seriously problematic argument.
Eichmann, Mengele - is that the company Goldstone really wants to keep.
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Thursday May 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Here's the low down on the Times Square bomb.
Faisal Shahzad did not pass the course on bomb making.
The fertilizer he used was non-combustible.
The M88 fireworks he chose were completely inappropriate for the job at hand.
They are almost impossible to self-ignite, they need fire. They do not explode. They are 98% paper and each one contains only 50 mg of explosive. The box that was found in the car contained 36 units which is just over 15 grams of explosives - that equals about 1/2 spoon full.
The propane tanks he thought would finish off the job would only explode if the temperature reached extremely hot temperatures in excess of 1000 degrees.
If would-be terrorist and bomb maker Shahzad had paid any attention to the instruction during his training he would have succeeded. These instructions are all over the internet.
Lucky for us all. Next time we will not be this lucky.
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Tuesday May 4, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
While Ahmadinejad was chastising the United States and attacking Israel at the UN, the Pentagon was releasing US nuclear details.
The US has 5113 nuclear missiles.
That number is a tiny fraction of what the US used to have. In 1967 there were over 31,000 nuclear missiles under US control.
This reduction of nuclear arms makes the world safer.
That is the real purpose of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The review that is now taking place in New York at the UN .is a secondary reason
Ahmadinejad is indeed moving toward nuclear energy and from there to nuclear weapons. Iran is claiming that they are only interested in nuclear technology for energy and medical reasons. That is a false claim.
Iran has an agenda. Iran wants to control the world. Iran wants a nuclear weapon.
With that weapon Iran will be positioned as the most powerful country in the Middle East and one of the most powerful countries in the world.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Monday May 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Kuwaiti newspaper al Watan is reporting that Hezbollah has concluded their preparations for war. The paper quotes a Hezbollah source who says that Hezbollah has learned the lessons of the Second Lebanese War.
"Fighters in the organization and its armed units are prepared to stave off any new Israeli attack. They will surprise Israel with the quality of its weapons that will be used in any future battle." The source also made it clear that "At the same time, Hezbollah is determined not to give Israel any excuse to start a new war."
Hezbollah is working very hard to preparing for war. Those preparations are a direct threat to Israel and to the region.
Hezbollah is making it clear that they are a power to be reckoned with and they are not in the least afraid of Israel.
Hezbollah is flexing muscles in the hope to prevent an attack. Ironically, it is exactly that muscle flexing that may just cause Israel to attack.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday May 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The story about SCUDs making their way from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon has been covered by the international news media.
In response to the coverage the Syrians, Hezbollah, the Iranians and even the Lebanese and Hamas have are calling the story nothing nonsense.
The chorus of protests proves that, indeed, the shipment took place.
These new missiles are much more dangerous than the old SCUDs. They have a longer range and are far more accurate. Good intel figures that Hezbollah now has 45,000 rockets and missiles. The most dangerous of those rockets and missiles, about 400-500 in all, have a very long range allowing them to hit anywhere in Israel if shot from northern Lebanon.
The one important drawback to these missiles, which works to Israel's advantage, is that because they are long range they require liquid fuel and the fueling takes about 30 minutes.
Hezbollah has created netting and camouflage and bunkers to try to allow them to fuel up just before launch. That is when they are most vulnerable. That is when Israel will hit them.
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Saturday May 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A game of Middle East ping pong is being played in the Oval Office.
One moment the White House criticizes Israel. The next moment they claim to be beside Israel unconditionally. A minute later the Administration is threatening Israel.
It is not uncommon to utilize the good cop / bad cop scenario in foreign affairs. It works when some members of the team have better relations with the other side while others are more suited for the role of the stern bad cop. But this ping ponging of the administration is taking it to extremes.
Now it is being reported that David Hale, George Mitchell's deputy, told the Palestinians that the United States is extremely upset with Israel's building policy in Jerusalem. Hale told the Palestinian leadership that the US is considering condemning and censuring Israel in the Security Council.
This would be a first.
If true, this means that the United States is not providing Israel with the safety net it promised. That means that Prime Minister Netanyahu is un-tethered (excuse the pun) and free to do whatever he wants.
The big question now is this: Will the United States have control over the Muslim world after they switch sides. I tend to doubt that they will.
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Friday April 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Belgium's Lower Parliament has voted to ban Muslim facial covering.
The ban will most certainly be approved by the Higher Parliament. This would be the first country to ban the Muslim dress. France is planning on voting on a similar bill later this year, but they are not there yet. This bill will generate a huge backlash from Muslims around the world.
Belgium has a population of 10 million people. The maximum number of Muslims in Belgium is 4 percent. That would be about 400,000 Muslims in total, plus approximately another 150,000 Muslim illegal immigrants.
The logic in Belgium is the same as the logic in France. Head covers present a security risk and security risks are an affront to the concept of freedom for women.
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Wednesday April 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Somalia is complaining that their judicial system is overburdened by piracy trials.
So Russia has suggested that the United Nations set up a court to try pirates who have been captured after terrorizing shipping lanes across the high seas.
The UN Security Council has agreed to the Russian proposal and charged the UN Secretary General to iron out the details within three months.
The pirates have wreaked havoc on the seas. They have free reign and even after being caught in the act, many have been released and allowed to board their own boats, but without their weapons. They are released because their captors do not have the jurisdiction to arrest and try them.
If the Secretary General comes back with a good proposal, new court may help just help crack down on these pirates.
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Tuesday April 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Muammar Ghadaffi is at it again.
The Libyan leader is dispensing advise to anyone who asks and even to those who don't.
Ghadaffi hosted a group of forty Israeli Arabs, including several members of the Israeli Knesset. Ghadaffi advised the group that the best way to solve their conflict with Israel is to reproduce and have more children. That way, he says, Israel will have to deal with them - the more Palestinians there are the more seriously the Israelis will have to take them.
And then yesterday, in a TV interview, Ghadaffi said that he was deeply insulted that he was not invited to the United States Conference Nukes. He said Libya was the last country to give up nukes and they were not even invited to the meeting of the big players. He asked: What hope is there of enticing Iran and North Korea if Libya is not brought into the fold.
When he is off base, Ghadaffi is way off base.
But sometimes, he is right on target.
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Monday April 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel and the US are livid over the statements made by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Gheit in an interview during a visit to Lebanon. Egypt called Israel an enemy.
The interviewer asked the foreign minister if his mission in Lebanon was to pass on a message from the government of Israel to the government of Lebanon.
His response was that he would not come to a sister Arab country with a message from the enemy.
The enemy!
Egypt and Israel have a peace treaty and a relationship.
The United States sees Egypt as the pivotal hinge in the entire peace process.
How can Egyptian an leader, someone who is so close to President Mubarak say such a thing. It had to have been sanctioned.
This episode took place on Saturday. Thus far, there has been no recanting, no public apology and no public dressing down of the foreign minister.
This message was planned and purposeful.
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Sunday April 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Taliban are torquing up the tension. They are executing suspected US collaborators.
Last week the Taliban brutally murdered four men believed to be aiding the United States by giving information and locations of Taliban strongholds.
The bodies were dumped in a location that could be prominently viewed by passersby. Attached to the dead bodies were notices and postings warning others to learn their lesson from these dead spies.
One was decapitated. Three had their throats cut. Their hands were severed. These desecrations are messages to the masses to actively repudiate the evil in their midst.
The irony is that it has been the Pakistani army, not US troops, who have really taken up the cause of attacking the Taliban, but it is the United States that is to be blamed. Naturally.
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Saturday April 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Jordanians have announced that Aqaba, their southernmost city, was hit by a GRAD missile on Thursday.
Very little information was offered, other than that the missile came from outside of Jordanian territory.
This is a deeply problematic issue.
Aqaba is situated on the Red Sea, bordering Saudi Arabia on one side and Israel on the other. Just across the port, only a few miles away, is the Egyptian part of the Sinai Desert. Aqaba is Jordan's only port and that makes it a significant strategic and economic target. Any terrorist wanting to disrupt the Jordanian economy would do well to hit Aqaba.
The Russian-made GRAD is the most sold and most used rocket in the world. It will be very difficult to trace this rocket because of the GRAD’s attractive resale value. Whoever shot the GRAD into Aqaba got it from someone who got it from someone.
Jordan is taking this very seriously.
My best guess is that the GRAD was shot from Saudi Arabia into Jordan by al Qaeda.
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Friday April 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Thousands of tunnels supply Gaza with anything and everything the Palestinians need, all at a premium price. Smuggling is an economy in Gaza.
In Gaza, tunnels are specialized. I just saw a picture of a tunnel that was dedicated to smuggling cars from Egypt into Gaza. The total cost of a brand new Hyundai in the Palestinian Authority is $40,000. The car can be bought in Cairo for $20,000, but buying it in Gaza it costs $31,000 and then the Gaza Hamas government adds on another $9,000 in taxes and fees.
Until recently, new cars were dismantled and then reassembled. They were taken through the tunnels in pieces. Now the tunnels are big enough that you can actually drive cars into and out of them without getting so much as a scratch.
Egypt has been shutting down the tunnels from their side.
That has put a real damper on the new car sales in Gaza.
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Wednesday April 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A movement for democracy is gaining ground in Egypt.
Every member of that movement lives in constant fear.
They fear arrest, or worse, they fear being murdered by the regime. Despite the warm relationship Egypt has with the United States and with the West, we must always remember that Egypt is a dictatorship. That is something the pro-democracy movement knows well.
Yesterday, a small group of some 30-40 protestors gathered in front of the Parliament in central Cairo. They had been warned in advance not to assemble, but they came anyway. They held up signs reading "Shoot Us" and "Shoot US with Bullets." The protest ended peacefully.
Egypt is the midst of serious crisis for its future.
Hosni Mubarak, a traditional dictator nearing the end of his life, has not yet appointed a successor.
The West is demanding that Egypt change and liberalize.
The country is torn between a very strong Islamic movement that wants to create a theocratic state and a handful of democratic-thinking liberals.
At this point, there is no way to know what will happen, but Egypt warrants careful watching.
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Tuesday April 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
In certain circles, Israel bashing has become the fad.
The sad reality is that much of the bashing is done by American Jews who, although they truly love Israel, feel it incumbent upon themselves to critique her in order to force Israel towards change.
Today is Israel's Independence Day.
Israel is 62 years old.
And while Israel is imperfect, the world is a far improved place because Israel came into statehood in 1948.
Israel has graced the world with inventions and advances in computers, technology, medicine, science and telecommunications.
Israel has impacted upon the world through research and study in the fields of literature, philosophy, language, economics and history.
Israel has contributed great ideas in the areas of morals, ethics and the law.
Few societies in today's world can openly evaluate their accomplishments and take communal pride in knowing that they have changed the world for the better.
Those who love Israel and those who are bound to Israel share in her pride.
Happy Independence Day, Israel.
Happy 62nd Birthday.
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Monday April 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iranian President Ahmadinejad has once again written a letter to President Obama. His first letter was a letter of congratulations. His second letter is not.
This letter was sent, delivered and has been confirmed by the White House. We know the content of the letter because Ahmadinejad wants us to know what it says. The Iranian media covered the communication and Ahmadinejad divulged what he wrote.
The letter reads that the United States needs Iran - not the other way around. The letter reads that spreading lies about Iran is how the United States keeps its power.
Ahmadinejad explained that Iran has the power to escape from the grip and control of the United States, that Iran has real true power. He explained that the logic the US uses to evaluate what happens in the world is seriously flawed.
When Ahmadinejad wrote to George Bush it was an 18 page long and rambling communication. This letter is very different, it is a shot across the bow.
With this letter Ahmadinejad is announcing that Iran has a plan - and that the United States is clueless.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday April 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran opened their special conference yesterday. The conference is called "Nuclear Energy for All Nuclear Weapons for None."
Last month I discussed how Iran was planning this meeting and how it would be the perfect vehicle to sway and even convince undecided countries to support Iran's quest for nuclear technology. 60 countries are participating. 10 foreign ministers and 14 deputy foreign ministers are in attendance.
Opening day was filled with vitriol and fanfare. The vitriol was directed at Israel and the United States. The fanfare was all about mobilizing against a world that is run by and influenced by the United States.
A message from Iran's Supreme Leader The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei was read. The message reiterated Iran's most repeated comments: the only country in history to perpetrate a nuclear war crime was the United States against Japan and Israel is stockpiling nuclear weapons while the Iranians are prevented from even creating nuclear energy.
Watch this conference carefully - it is the preliminary round for the next diplomatic conflict.
Iran is setting the bar very high.
Iran is successfully convincing other countries of their peaceful objectives and of the evils of the United States.
Iran may quite possibly, successfully, stymie any Western foreign flank that attempts to stop them.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday April 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Most of you have seen the polls.
73% of American Jews, see the US/Israel relationship as very strong.
55% of American Jews support President Obama's current approach to Israel. 80 % believe that peace cannot be achieved with Hamas.
On the Israel side only 6% -10% of Israelis agree with Obama.
While it is clear that American Jews recognize that the Arab side is not a willing partner for peace, the disparity with Israeli Jews is startling.
How does one explain the disparity?
The Jews of America understand the risk but not the significance of the risk. That risk is the very existence of Israel.
This is a risk Israelis understand all too well.
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Friday April 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas has begun to execute people for collaborating with Israel. Two were executed yesterday.
There are a whole slew of people on death row in Gaza. Eight are Fatah officers. Most of the Fatah officers were tried in absentia and have been convicted. But there are large numbers of people who await execution and are in the hands of Hamas. All of them convicted of treason.
All of these executions violate Palestinian law. But Hamas has its own law and they do not follow the Palestinian law that requires the Presidents signature to execute anyone.
Hamas claims that it is following British Mandate law from 1936 and Jordanian law from the 1960's. But this is also untrue. These laws require British Colonial approval and the Jordanian law required the Kings approval. So who approves the executions? The same people who tried and convicted the prisoners.
Most often the trials were in the middle of the night there was no defense and no appeal.
Hamas has its own government. They are not even playing by the Palestinian Authority rules. They play by Hamas' rules.
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Thursday April 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States has been pressuring Israel to sign the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The pressure has increased now that the Washington DC nuclear convention, with 47 countries in attendance, has concluded.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak made a clear announcement.
He said that Israel will not be pressured by the United States.
"There is no room to pressure Israel to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has never threatened to annihilate other nations and peoples, while today Iran, and also Syria, Libya and Iraq in the past, all of whom signed this treaty, have systematically violated its stipulations while explicitly threatening Israel's existence."
Barak is correct.
Israel cannot be pressured by the US, too much is at stake.
Israel cannot open its nuclear facilities to international inspections.
Israel cannot divulge their details, the details are what keeps Israel alive.
Israel uses the nuclear card to frighten their enemies.
That alone should be enough to make certain that Israel need not divulge the details of its nuclear potential.
The United States should know better.
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Wednesday April 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
It's move, counter move between the United States and Iran.
The United States is moving to prepare new sanctions against Iran because of their nuclear program.
And Iran has announced that it has new nuclear centrifuges.
This is the third generation of Iranian centrifuges.
They are Iran's response to the 4th round of sanctions against them.
It does not appear that Iran is the least bit concerned about the new sanctions.
Actually, Iran flaunts the whole idea of sanctions by publicly announcing new technology concerning their nuclear program.
Iran actually has holds a National Nuclear Day.
During the celebrations on this great day, Iran announced that they will retaliate against the United Sates if they are threatened by the United States.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Tuesday April 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's Supreme Leader, The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, has made an announcement.
The Ayatollah, who has the ultimate say on all issues in Iran from politics to religion, announced that Iran will lodge an official complaint against the United States at the United Nations because the US President Obama threatened Iran with a nuclear attack.
Iran claims that when Obama was asked about the new nuclear limitations that the United States is instituting, his answer was an implicit nuclear threat to Iran.
What Obama said was that North Korea and Iran were not part of the new nuclear weapons limitations that the US was establishing for itself.
In the eyes of the Iran, Obama's comment is a threat.
Why? Because the new limits prevent the US from using nukes in pre-emptive strikes - against everyone except North Korea and Iran.
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Monday April 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi recently invited Israeli Arab leaders to a meeting.
The invitation was issued and delivered thru the Libyan Embassy in Amman, Jordan and then ushered across the Israeli border to Nazareth where the official invitation was received.
The purpose of the meeting was to inform Arabs living in Israel, through their leadership, of the Arab League's decisions about the Palestinian/Israeli Peace process.
This is a first.
Arab citizens of Israel have always been kept out of the loop.
They hear about events and decisions only indirectly and through news coverage.
In truth, Arab Israelis are not major players.
The fact that Ghaddafi is reaching out to them is telling.
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Sunday April 11, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Sometimes it feels as if we are living out a television sitcom.
An Israeli chief of police left his cell phone in his unmarked car.
The car, of course, was burglarized and the phone was stolen.
Had the phone been locked or had it been a new G-3 Apple, the security system would probably not be too badly preached. But only a fraction of people who are in important security jobs actually lock their phones.
This burglar now has access to the private numbers of the most important and security sensitive people in Israel. The head of the Mossad, the head of internal security, the head of military intelligence just to name a few. He probably now has numbers for the prime minister.
The lucky thief is probably unaware of whose car he broke into.
But just imagine if he was an al Qaeda agent, or a Syrian, or an Iranian contractor. With these cell phone numbers he would have the ability to eavesdrop upon and keep surveillance on the most important people in Israel.
The situation is scandalous.
The ramifications are frightening.
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Saturday April 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas shot a rocket from Gaza toward Israel - and it fell short.
The rocket landed in a residential are, in an apartment complex - in Gaza.
The number of wounded is unclear, property damage is extensive.
We will never know how many people were actually hurt by this misguided rocket that accidentally fell on and killed Palestinians instead of the intended targets, Israelis.
A Palestinian humanitarian group asked Hamas to be more careful when shooting rockets.
They said that hurting Palestinians is unacceptable.
Think about that statement, that sentiment, for a moment.
The opposite side of that thought is galling - that while it is unacceptable to injure Palestinians, it is perfectly acceptable and permissible to hurt innocent Israelis.
What kind of system and what kind of humanity is it that condemns hurting one innocent civilian but permits and even applauds the death of another.
Hamas should stop shooting rockets. Period.
Then Palestinians will no longer hurt innocent Palestinians.
At the same time, they will also stop hurting innocent Israelis.
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Friday April 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Two high level Obama administration officials had a sit down with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.
They were pitching a new approach to the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations.
According to Ignatius' column, the White House wants to launch a new plan.
The Administration is frustrated by "incrementalism."
Incrementalism is the idea that everything works in slow stages, one difficult idea at a time.
The Administration's new plan is to create a Palestinian/Israeli peace program based on the agreement almost attained at Camp David in 2000.
Actually the new plan simply appears to be a rehash of old plans, but we will know more when more details about the idea are floated.
The new plan sounds great in a vacuum i.e., in a meeting between two officials and a Washington Post columnist.
The real problems will emerge when real parties i.e., the Palestinians and Israelis are called in for comment and cooperation.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Thursday April 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Defense Minister of Iran, Ahmed Vahidi, has made a dramatic announcement.
While on tour with President Mamoud Ahmadinejad, Vahidi said that if Israel should strike Iran, Iran will totally destroy Israel in a counter attack.
Vahidi said that if the "Zionist regime attacks Iran" then "there may not be anything left of it."
Then he added a comment about Israel admitting that they do not have the strength to attack Iran.
Iran is on the attack.
Iran is on the attack diplomatically and militarily.
In Iran, words speak as loudly as actions.
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Wednesday April 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
In diplomacy, it all depends on how you spin it.
Iran is claiming that all the pressure the United States has been piling on China to support sanctions against them, has actually brought China and Iran closer together.
I know it sounds so incongruous.
But this time, Iran may be telling it like it is.
Iran just announced an international conference that they will host later in April titled "Nuclear Energy for All, Nuclear Weapons for No One."
This will be a public relations bonanza for Iran.
The Iranians are directly confronting the United States assertion that the purpose of the Iranian nuke program is for weapons.
Creating a conference about energy and rejecting weapons is sheer brilliance. Iran will attempt to convince leaders and countries around the world that all they are interested in is their unalienable right to develop nuclear energy - not nuclear weapons.
The conference will whittle away at international support for actions against Iran.
The Iranians have come up with a simple plan, or should I say, counter plan that will have a far reaching, long lasting powerful impact.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Tuesday April 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas announced that it wants to put Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayad on trial as a traitor.
There has never been any love lost between Fayad and Hamas.
Hamas does not recognize Fayad as Palestinian Prime Minister.
Hamas believes that Fayad attained his position illegally after a "fair and free" election during which the plurality of Palestinians elected Hamas.
Hamas says: "Fayyad is a person without legitimacy, who has stolen control in the West Bank and whose hands are contaminated with the suffering of thousands of martyrs in the West Bank."
In several interviews last week Fayad said that he is certain that there will be a Palestinian state in the year 2011.
Hamas claims that in saying this, they have proof that Fayad no longer embraces the return of all Palestinians to all of Palestine.
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Monday April 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Do not be misled by the titles "liberal" or "moderate" as they apply to the Middle East.
Many supposedly "liberal" countries in the Middle East are in fact extremely "conservative" and take a very narrow view of Western expressions of affection.
For example: A Dubai court of appeals has just affirmed the decision by a lower court to punish two British tourists with one month of imprisonment for giving one another a peck on the cheek in a restaurant.
The criminal complaint was made by a local woman who witnessed the dastardly deed.
Most "liberal" countries in the Arab Middle East are impatient not only with Western expressions of affection and public displays of sexual culture, but even with Western dress and its tendency toward bold colors.
What we in the West call acceptable and common place is called a violation of law and a disregard for tradition by "moderate" and even "liberal" Arab societies in the Middle East.
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Sunday April 4, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is making certain that the world knows its point of view on nuclear development.
No matter what anyone else says, no matter what pressure is brought upon them, Iran will continue developing their nuclear program. Actually the more resistance the West puts up, the stronger the Iranian resolve to build nuclear technology.
On Saturday Iran's President Ahmadinejad proclaimed that no external pressure will stop Iran from their stated mission.
He said: "Do not think that you can stop Iran's path of development. You can pressure us, publish statements and resolutions, but the Iranians are determined to continue."
Iran knows that the United States along with the rest of the West are planning to increase pressure.
These comments by Ahmadinejad are his first counter response to the inevitable future sanctions against his country.
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Saturday April 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Russia has stepped up its involvement in the Middle East peace process.
Russia is attempting to position itself as an even-handed a mediator that has influence with Hamas.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a phone conversation with Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas.
Lavrov made clear to Mashaal that Russia thinks that Hamas' increased rocket fire from Gaza into Israel is a big mistake.
Lavrov informed Mashaal that this change in the status quo is dangerous and that it could have a devastating impact on the calm that has been in place form the past year.
According to Russian sources, Mashaal said that he understands and will try to stop the rocket fire.
In truth, Hamas just wanted to get Russia off their back.
Mashaal has no intention of toning down the attacks.
Hamas wants to draw Israel into a retaliatory raid that results in the deaths of innocent Israeli civilians.
Russia is playing their own game, Hamas is playing their own game.
Their games are deadly.
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Friday April 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States is not giving up.
Next week the US is expecting to conduct serious discussions with both Russia and China.
The topic under discussion will be stepped up sanctions against Iran.
It is not clear what power the US has over China and Russia, but the mere fact that they are willing to meet and talk is a very good sign.
In order to take sanctions against Iran to a new level, all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council must be in agreement. The United States may be taking the lead, but they will just be spinning wheels unless they can bring China and Russia on board. France and England are already on board.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, in an interview with The New York Times on Thursday, said that he was pleasantly surprised that China had agreed to entertain the idea and will actually be talking to the Americans about renewed sanctions.
The Russians are open to bribery and/or persuasion.
But without the Chinese, renewed sanctions against Iran have no chance at all.
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Thursday April 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
New developments on the move to push through sanctions against Iran:
The United States says they have made headway with China to back sanctions.
AP is quoting sources high up in China confirming that they will back sanctions.
But Iran has other plans:
Iran has sent their chief nuclear negotiator to China.
Saeed Jalili will arrive in China today.
According to Iranian press reports, Jalili will be in China to help advance dialogue with the West.
Jalili wants to curtail sanctions.
Jalili is reaching out to China for help in stalling the sanctions.
Iran will guarantee China access to important natural resources.
Iran will promise China that all will be resolved thru face to face dialogue.
Of course, these are simply tactics.
And sanctions against Iran are not in China's best interest.
Soon enough, we will see where this all leads.
Right now, it's too soon to even hazard a guess.
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Wednesday March 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The African Star, a ZIM lines freighter, was attacked by pirates.
ZIM is an Israeli company.
On board the freighter, in addition to cargo, were trained, armed, security personnel.
In response to the surge in piracy, many shipping companies have started hiring security teams and many of those teams were originally trained in Israel.
Many companies does not mean all companies, so the seas are still rich pirates.
With the situation on the high seas at a crisis level owners have started to take charge. In hiring experienced security teams the owners hope to scare off the pirates. When the pirates attempt to capture the vessel they are repelled by the small gun fire of the security team.
That is what happened on the African Star.
Pirates won't learn their lesson, but maybe other shipping, freight and cruise company owners will learn theirs.
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Tuesday March 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Figure this one out.
According to UN figures:
In Operation Cast Lead in Gaza there were about 1300 victims out of the 1.5 million people residing in Gaza.
In Haiti there were about 230,000 victims out of the 3 million residents.
When it came to receiving aid:
Gaza received $900 million from the United States and $200 million from the UN.
Haiti received $700 million from the US and DOD and $10 million from the UN.
The numbers don't seem to add up.
That's because this isn't about math or logic, it's about diplomacy.
Haiti needs more aid than Gaza, but Haiti is not a cause that pulls at the heartstrings the way the Palestinian cause does.
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Monday March 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Did you ever notice that in totalitarian countries lots of people come out for protests?
You know why?
Because they are paid to come out and protest.
Some are paid with money, some are paid with favors like free university tuition. Others are paid with a promise - if they do not attend the protests, they will be arrested.
In Damascus, Syria recently tens of thousands of protestors came out to the streets to march against Israel and against settlements. The protest had a name. It was called the March of Anger Against Israel.
In Syria, as is the case in most dictatorships, nobody is ever permitted to protest against a domestic policy or a national policy.
In Syria the only protests are about Israel or the United States.
In Syria, they never protest about the level of their education, living conditions or working conditions.
In Syria, there are never any protests that are critical of the government.
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Saturday March 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
It is best said that Muslims seek misunderstanding.
Muslim leaders deliberately feed disinformation about Israel to their masses in order to promulgate stereotypes and stoke flames of hatred.
The Arab world is mistaken about building in Jerusalem, about synagogue rededication in Jerusalem and even about excavations in Jerusalem.
The Arab world thinks that Jews will not share Jerusalem or preserve holy Muslim sites.
The Arab world believes that Jews will do what they want to do - which is to destroy the holy sites of other religions.
Nothing is further from the truth.
The Palestinian Authority has asked the Arab League for $500 million to fight the Judaization of Jerusalem.
They want to unite Muslims around a common goal and truth has nothing to do with that goal.
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Friday March 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Al Jazeera ran an audio tape of Osama bin Laden.
The reason for the tape was to threaten the United States.
Bin Laden said that if the US executes Khalid Sheik Mohammed, al Qaeda will execute all the Americans they can.
He asserted that al Qaeda will continue to kidnap and murder as many Americans as they can.
There has been no change in al Qaeda policy or in al Qaeda motivation.
That should be clear.
Al Qaeda is committed to murdering Americans as they can.
Terrorist trials and executions do not threaten al Qaeda.
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Thursday March 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Syrian President Bashar Assad was recently interviewed on Hezbollah TV.
He said that at this point there are only two options for the Syrians and Israelis - either peace or war.
Bashar added that the only language that Israel understands is the language of force.
Indeed, he is correct.
The Middle East, Israel included, understands strength and force.
In the Middle East, force is the most important variable in every argument.
Without strength and without force Israel would be destroyed.
Israel knows it and so does the rest of the region - it is the Israeli advantage.
No other country in the region will attack unless they are prepared for Israel's response.
Israel cannot afford to be vulnerable.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Wednesday March 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The grandson of the Ayatollah Rafsanjani was arrested upon his arrival in Teheran Airport earlier this week.
He was returning to Teheran from London.
The Ayatollah Rafsanjani was the former president of Iran.
Rafsanjani has been a critical voice of the current regime.
His family has paid the price of Rafsanjani's vocal discontent. His son-in-law and daughter were detained as they left their home to attend a commemoration in Teheran marking the failed election this past summer.
Rafsanjani is the chairman of the Assembly of Experts. He is also the chairman of the Expediency Council. These are two of the most significant religious agencies in Iran. These committees confirm the Supreme Leader, and placed the Ayatollah Khamenei in his position.
Rafsanjani and his family are threats to the Supreme Leader and his regime.
In Iran, threats are carefully and closely scrutinized.
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Tuesday March 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Russians and the United States has been talking about Iran.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just wrapped up a long visit to Russia. Clinton was trying to impress upon the Russians how important it is to either stop or at least slow down work on the nuclear plant they are building in Busher for the Iranians.
Clinton's thesis and the perspective of the United States is that the plant will destabilize the region and has the potential of forcing the region and maybe even the world into war.
Clinton failed.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister and Clinton's direct counterpart, holds the opposite view.
In their final joint press conference Lavrov said that the only way to exert some sense of control over Iran is to open up the nuclear plant.
He asserted that the open plant would permit international inspectors entry and the ability to observe the plant.
He said this is the only way to insure a safe Iran.
The United States was outmaneuvered - again.
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Monday March 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Rift.
Challenge.
That is the language the US State Department is using in reference to the current boondoggle with Israel over building in Jerusalem.
For example:
There is a rift in the relationship.
Israel's settlement policy is a challenge.
Technically, the terminology is correct. But given the situation this choice of words hardly touches the heart of the matter.
Most diplomatic wars are chosen, not obligatory. One should never enter a diplomatic scuffle without knowing the outcome and without determining whether the effort is worth the price that will have to be, eventually and inevitably, paid.
This time around, the United States did not do their homework.
Even Ban Ki Moon, the head of the United Nations, made a statement this week saying that the Jerusalem issue is to be discussed in final status talks.
The United Nations knows how to play the diplomacy game.
Why opt for war when your intention is peace.
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Sunday March 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Nigeria just withdrew their ambassador from Libya.
Unless you follow these matters, you would think that Nigeria and Libya were allies and comrades. They are not.
This rift in the relationship between Nigeria and Libya is the result of a suggestion made by Libya's leader Colonel Muammar Qaddafi.
Qaddafi suggested that Nigeria should solve its current rioting problem which has already claimed several hundred Nigerian lives and divides the country along religious lines.
Qaddafi says just separate the country, dividing the Christian and Muslim sides, and the problem will be solved.
Nigeria went ballistic - literally.
Now Nigeria is calling for an investigation into Libya's potential sponsoring of revolutionaries.
It is possible that Qaddafi could be sponsoring divisions in Nigeria.
But it is more probable this is just another classic example of Qaddafi simply over-speaking and not self-editing.
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Saturday March 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The government of India has asked the United States for permission to speak with David Headley.
Headley is the US citizen from Chicago who has pled guilty to charges of terrorism.
Headley was the main scout for the simultaneous terror attacks that rocked Mumbai and murder 166 people.
India would like to charge David Headley.
More importantly, India would like to know more about his links, his contacts and the infrastructure that planned and executed the attacks.
Until now the United States and India have co-operated on this issue. The United States has shared the information they have gleaned through interrogation with India.
But India has its own questions.
India understands things differently than does the US and India has much deeper intelligence than does the US.
The government of India deserves a chance to speak to Headley.
The more they learn, the more the United States will learn, too.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Friday March 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
General David Petraeus made an outrageous statement yesterday.
The gist of his analysis is that the relationship between the United States and Israel causes damage to US interests in the rest of the world.
How could the general have even made such a statement.
This statement in and of itself is a torpedoing of US interests.
Suggesting that the special relationship between the US and Israel is not special at all and is instead a liability is a perversion of the highest order.
Petraeus said that "anti-American sentiment" is a result of the unambiguous support the United States shows Israel.
Here is a news flash for you General Petreaus: Nothing the United States does will alter the way the United States is viewed by Afghanistan and the rest of the Muslim world.
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Wednesday March 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The US State Department spokesman made an announcement Tuesday.
He said that Special Presidential Envoy George Mitchell will not be making his scheduled trip to the Middle East next week.
Instead, Mitchell will be meeting with the players as soon as possible.
The United States is trying to gain control of a situation that has gotten completely out of control.
There is a three way diplomatic crisis taking place.
The United States - Israel - the Palestinians, they are all on over drive and their responses to the crisis are all overkill.
When all the parties in a deal/crisis are out of control and when every response they give is an exaggerated response, it is very hard to get the situation back on track.
It will require significant time and real diplomacy before the United States can move Israel and the Palestinians close enough together to start the indirect talks as promised.
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Tuesday March 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that they want to help facilitate a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
Palestinian unity is now a part of Iran's overall goal and philosophy.
Why has Iran has decided to take an interest in the plight of the Palestinians?
Because Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said that Iran is one of the reason for the conflict.
Iran support Hamas. Iran provides Hamas with money, weapons and training all of which is a public slap in the face of Fatah.
Abbas called them on it.
In order to save face internationally, Iran had to respond.
Iran chose to respond with a message of unity.
This is the classic Iranian move.
Iran needs to be viewed as pro-Islam. They cannot take one side over the other.
Yet, Iran clearly supports Hamas over Fatah. Why? Because Hamas more closely reflects Iran's understanding of Islam than does Fatah.
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Monday March 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak underwent gallbladder surgery in Germany on March 6th.
The hospital released a statement saying that the surgery went well and that Mubarak is recovering well.
Muabrak is 81 years old.
He has ruled Egypt with an iron hand for nearly 30 years. This is just one of several close calls the Egyptian president has had. No one can accurately predict the health of an octogenarian. And in Egypt, no one can predict where an assassin's bullet will land.
Speculation about the future of Egypt has taken on a new urgency.
How long can Mubarak hold on?
Will he appoint a successor who, symbolically, gets elected?
Will he liberalize Egypt as a final glorious gesture?
Time will tell.
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Sunday March 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hillary Clinton called Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu on the carpet the other day.
And Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador to Washington, was invited for a formal dress down.
It was to be expected.
It was the response of the United States to Israel's announcement that 1600 new apartments are to be built in a neighborhood outside Jerusalem, a neighborhood on the other side of the pre '67 border.
The announcement was just a matter of when.
When would the White House and the State Department call?
It was obvious what they would say.
This is by no means the first time, nor will it be the last time, that Israel and the United States are in conflict on the subject of settlement expansion in Jerusalem.
It was the timing of the announcement that was problematic - not the content.
It was timed to coincide with the visit of US Vice President Joe Biden to Israel.
It was timed to derail the resumption of indirect talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
It is about conflict within Israel, not about Israel's conflict with either the Palestinians or the United States.
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Saturday March 13, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
In Mauritania, al Qaeda released a Spanish aid worker named Alicia Gamez.
Gamez was a kidnapped for 100 days and then let go.
According to al Qaeda websites she was released because "she voluntarily converted to Islam."
Something is very wrong with this picture.
Islam does not permit forced conversions.
All conversions must be 100% submission to Islam and Islamic teaching which requires freedom of choice, especially regarding the decision to accept the will of Allah as taught by his prophet Mohammed. If a person is forced to convert it is not of their free will and they cannot be a true Muslim.
Alicia Gamez was in captivity for 100 days. This situation can not possibly, objectively, be considered an exercise of free will.
Hundreds of historical examples in Islamic law address this exact issue.
It is baffling how little Muslim extremists know about Islam.
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Friday March 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Rumors and reports have been spreading all over the Middle East for the past 48 hours.
The word is that the Palestinians will not join indirect talks with Israel under the present circumstances. The Palestinians are calling for US Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell to force Israel to stop all settlement activity.
The information made its way to the press via Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League. Moussa says that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was his source for the information.
The State Department spokesman says that they know nothing of this.
The Palestinians have not told the Americans about their cold feet.
The Palestinians are continuing the chorus they have been repeating for the past 15 months.
There is no way out of this dilemma unless the Palestinians give in.
The Israelis agreed to the indirect talks knowing that the Palestinians could never back down.
Now the Palestinians have a choice - they can appear weak or they can appear strong.
Weak would be join the Israelis for indirect talks, strong would be opposing the talks.
Odds are the Palestinian will have it both ways.
They will refuse to talk now and resume talks at a later date.
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Wednesday March 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has announced the construction of 1600 new apartments.
The announcement was a major embarrassment for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The announcement was made while US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel.
Netanyahu had told everyone, his cabinet, his advisers and even his press people ... no surprises ... no embarrassments.
Biden was forced to give Israel a tongue lashing. A perfectly uneventful and exclusively positive visit was turned into a tense moment and an international diplomatic incident.
Why? What motivated an announcement like that?
The decision was made by head of the Shas party and Minister of the Interior, Eli Ishai.
Ishai wanted to deliberately taunt the United States and their micro management of Israel.
Ishai used this announcement to say to the Israeli public that his party will not bend to the will of the United States.
Ishai was saying that the United States is not the most powerful force in the universe.
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Tuesday March 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Sunday's election in Iraq was a water shed event.
This was the second ever free democratic election in Iraq. This year 62.4% of the people came out to vote, in the 2005 election, 76% voted. The results are still not clear and even after the results are made public it will take a few weeks for us to understand what is really happening.
The most important revelation to emerge from this election is that the Sunni population came out to vote. In 2005 the Sunnis were effectively removed from any chance of holding elected office because they had boycotted the election.
The delicate balance that has been forged between Sunnis and Shiites since 2005, what we call Iraq today, may yet be shattered. The Sunnis want to put serious distance between Iran and Iraq, they want to make certain that Shiite tones are not sounded in Iraq.
We don't yet know what will happen.
We do know that the big loser in this election is definitely al Qaeda.
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Monday March 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
According to the Israeli press, Israeli leaders have issued an ultimatum to Palestinian leaders.
In private conversations, Israel has told Palestinian leaders that they must move and move seriously to prevent the Palestinian uprising.
The Israelis said that if tensions and incitement do not drop significantly Israel will start making arrests. This comes in response to a dramatic increase in public incitement against Israel - incitement that has been unofficially condoned by public officials.
A Palestinian rebellion is in the making.
Israel is trying to convince Palestinians leadership that a rebellion against Israel is not in their long term interests.
Israel will not permit the Palestinians to create another Intifada.
I think the Palestinians have gotten Israel's message - now they have to make a decision.
If there is another Intfada, thousands of Palestinian will die and any hope of Palestinian statehood will be pushed off again.
But an Intifada is good for local, political, popular support it will look as if Palestinian leadership is taking a stand against Israel.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a resumption of indirect negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, scheduled to be announced later today.
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Sunday March 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday night US Presidential special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell landed in Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
This meeting sets the stage for the announcement of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. On Monday Joe Biden arrives in the region and everything is expected be in place for the vice president.
This is a classically well choreographed American event.
It will be pitched perfectly for history, for the cameras, for the world to watch.
The only problem is that the parties are not quite up to the task.
Israel and the Palestinians have been playing a game and neither has been honest about their stand on indirect talks.
The Israelis and the Palestinians are placating the United States.
We will learn what they each really want only after the talks begin.
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Saturday March 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Under new leadership, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has begun to take nuclear development by Iran and Syria much more seriously than it had in the past.
Over the past several months Syria has been challenged by the IAEA on more that one occasion.
An IAEA report shows beyond the shadow of any doubt that Israel destroyed a nuclear facility in deep in Syria.
The Syrian ambassador to the IAEA, Bassam Sabbag, insists that it is not so.
Sabbag claims that the uranium readings that were detected were a set up by the Israelis.
Sabbag claims that the Israeli sprinkled uranium in the area after they bombed the agricultural facility.
Conspiracies and conspiracy theories abound in the Middle East.
The more far fetched they are, the more likely they are to spread with a vengeance
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Friday March 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A team of Australian police investigators is now in Israel investigating the case of the Australian passports that were used during the assassination of Mahmoud Mabhouh.
This is not unusual.
What turns this bit of investigative work into news is that on Thursday, after leaving the Australian Embassy in Tel Aviv, the team hit a female bicyclist with their vehicle. They ran over the bike and kept on going.
They did not stop.
This is a serious violation of the law in any country. That police officials did not stop is scandalous. The woman, thankfully, was not badly injured. She is, however, demanding an apology and a new bicycle wheel.
In general, one of the rules of safe counter espionage in very risky environments is not to stop after minor accidents.
What appears to be a minor accident can in actuality be a trick, an attempt to kidnap the operative or to place a bug.
But this was downtown Tel Aviv.
An innocent, however unfortunate, encounter may now turn into a diplomatic incident. This time there is real evidence - as opposed to the assassination the Australian team is investigating which is filled with speculation.
Then again, this would be a Mossad-like tactic to discredit the Australians, wouldn't it.
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Wednesday March 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
One of the best ways of finding out the agenda of any country in the Middle East is by observing who is talking to whom face to face.
The vice president of Iraq, Tarik Hashemi, arrived in Damascus for a two day diplomatic visit. What makes the visit unusual is the fact that Iraq and Syria do not have diplomatic relations.
Iraq blamed Syria for the August bombings that devastated Iraq half a year ago. Iraq said that the Syrians permitted the terrorists to cross their border and then slip back over into Syria.
This meeting is an attempt at building bridges.
It will take much more that a meeting, but it seems that both sides are interested in improving diplomatic relations.
The big problem in all this is that Syria has a vested interest in sponsoring terror.
The big question is whether attacking America is more valuable to Syria than patching things up with Iraq.
Actions speak louder than words, we will have to watch this one carefully.
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Tuesday March 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, made a passionate speech yesterday condemning every Arab country and every Arab leader for inaction - every country except Iran and Syria.
Only Iran and Syria have taken a stand on behalf of Hezbollah and helped Nasrallah's cause.
Nasrallah said, "The Muslim nation must assume its responsibility and not leave the resistance movements alone on the ground."
He said, "When Syria and Iran stand by us clearly they assume their responsibility and should be thanked for that. Assist the Palestinians as Iran does and this will resolve the problem; assume your responsibility."
Arab leadership will not take up Nasrallah's call for assistance and support.
Arab leaders act and do not act for a reason.
Arab leaders will never do anything that endangers their position.
Inaction is always preferred to action.
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Sunday February 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States is beginning to get serious with Syria.
The Syrian Ambassador to the US has been summoned to the State Department to meet with US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman
The Syrian Ambassador will be told - in no uncertain terms - that Syria must stop arming Hezbollah.
This change in tone and demands by the United States comes about as the result of a failed trip to Damascus by Under Secretary of State Frank Burns. When Burns asked Syrian President about arming Hezbollah, Assad said he has no idea what Burns was talking about.
Assad did not even deny it.
Assad said he has no idea.
A flat denial would have been a more serious and more respectful response. Saying he had no idea was a snub, suggesting that Burns was not entitled to either a real lie or the truth.
The message will be sent from the ambassador in DC to the president in Damascus.
But no change will take place on the ground in Syria or in Lebanon.
This is a shot across the bow - it is a warning to Syria.
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Saturday February 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Crude oil closed at $79.66 in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Earlier in the day, it topped the $80 mark.
For the past week oil has been swinging and swinging high. On Friday it hit a benchmark.
There are many reasons why oil prices go up.
Suffice it to say, increased oil prices do not help either the consumer or the West. The people best helped by increased oil prices are enemies of the US. First and second on the list are Iran and Venezuela.
The US wants to apply sanctions on Iran and this surge in oil prices is exactly what they need to give them the extra cash to ride out any of the potential rough spots that might emerge over the next few months.
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Friday February 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a day trip to Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was in Syria getting all his ducks in a row.
Assad and Ahmadinejad agreed on several issues.
At their joint press conference the leaders announced that the United States should pack up and get out of the Middle East.
The Iranian leader also met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shallah.
They all want to make certain that should there be another conflict with Israel, a united Islamic front will emerge.
They will fail.
There is a natural inclination for Muslim leaders to proclaim unity, but in reality, history shows us that in crisis, it is every Middle East leader for himself.
Should the time ever come, Iran will not lift a hand to protect either Hamas or Islamic Jihad.
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Thursday February 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has issued a warning.
They told every country that flies to Iran that from now on the water surrounding the area must be referred to as the "Persian Gulf" and not by the more commonly used name the "Arabian Gulf."
They said that every map and every piece of paper, even inside airplanes and used solely for traveler entertainment purposes, must reflect the change.
Countries that do not comply with this demand will lose their landing rights in Iran.
The conflict of "Persian Gulf" versus "Arabian Gulf" is the conflict that caused the cancellation of the Islamic games earlier this year.
Last year National Geographic referred to the water improperly and the magazine, their maps and their atlases were all banished from Iran. After a long discussion and much begging National Geographic is now back in Iran.
Iran is dead serious, they are not playing around.
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Tuesday February 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Finally, after way too long, the bones of an Egyptian nobleman have been returned to their rightful owner.
In 2008 Miami Airport officials confiscated a sarcophagus flying from Madrid to Spain. The box was from the 21st Egyptian Dynasty dating from 975-1010 BCE. It had been out on display and when it returned to the US, the importer did not have proper papers.
Egypt sued to get it returned and they won.
Until the 1950's and the rise of the modern Middle East, natural treasures and local historical prizes were looted by archeologists, grave robbers and traders. And then they were often sold to big name museums and serious collectors.
Many Middle Eastern states still have feelings of anger toward the colonial powers of the West. Many national treasures of the Middle East are still on display in museums in Western capitals around the world. These treasures were often stolen right out of dig sites leaving gaping holes in situ and then brought to London and Paris.
In this case, a historic wrong has been righted.
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Monday February 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Curiosity about the inner workings of the Mossad has ratcheted up ever since the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud Mabhouh.
The Mossad is not an assassination machine, the Mossad is an information gathering organization.
The Mossad is very compartmentalized. Units that are involved in dangerous field operations are the most separate and most compartmentalized of all.
For example: the Kidon Unit is part of the Ceasaria Unit.
The Ceasaria Unit is actually a Mossad within the Mossad. We do not know half of the activities that the Kidon Unit is involved in, but assassinations are not the foundation of the unit.
The Caesaria Unit is like a special projects organization.
Most Caesaria Unit activities involve field intelligence, not just gathering intel but also interaction and engagement. The work is highly pressured - not much cloak and dagger but a lot of acting and deception.
How is information gathered?
Posing as a journalist or lobbyist or traveling businessperson and hanging out in hotel bars, hot cafes and hot tubs is one very useful tool for gathering information and opening up channels of communication.
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Sunday February 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Youkiya Amano of Japan is the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The IAEA is the group charged with inspecting nuclear facilities around the world to make certain that countries work within international nuclear guidelines.
Amano just failed at trying to convince Syria to permit the IAEA unfettered inspection access. Inspecting Syrian facilities is especially important because, according to a newly publicized IAEA report, the facility Israel attacked in September 2007 had traces of nuclear remains
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said absolutely no to the IAEA. "We are committed to the non-proliferation agreement between the agency and Syria and we allow inspectors to come according to this agreement." In other words, Syria agrees to pre-scheduled inspections, but not to unannounced, spot inspections.
Amano wants Syria to join the new protocols which permit any and all inspections.
Syria is not interested and Moallem will not budge on this issue. "We will not allow anything beyond the agreement because Syria does not have a military nuclear program. Syria is not obliged to open its other sites to inspectors."
This situation is not good.
Syria and the IAEA are gearing for a showdown.
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Saturday February 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, also known as the Supreme Leader of Iran, made an announcement.
He said that the West does not understand what Iran is doing.
He said that Iran is not enriching uranium for weapons.
He said that the West does not even realize that for Iran, "it is forbidden to use that kind of weapon."
This is not the first time the Grand Ayatollah has made a pronouncement saying that Islamic law prohibits nuclear weapons.
The problem is that Islamic law also prohibits the murder of innocent people.
Everyone views their own world through their own special spectrum.
Iran seems to view nuclear weapons differently than we in the West view them.
Iran is masterful at clouding the issue and subverting blame - masterful.
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Friday February 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday, Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, added his voice and the voice of the entire Arab League to the voices of Iran and Syria and the rest of the chorus of countries saying they will not sit still if Israel attacks Lebanon.
It sounds good, but in reality, it is simply a gesture - political, rhetoric, machismo.
The Arab League has no army and no power to control the members of the League.
The Iranians are clear about their point of view, they have a serious stake in Southern Lebanon but their purpose in building up Southern Lebanon has always been to create a proxy so that they do not have to get personally involved.
The Syrians view Lebanon as their sovereign territory. They sew seeds of disorder to weaken the central Lebanese government. They want disorder in Lebanon. And they do it all from a distance.
These are real attempts to create unity - even though these statements are only meant for public consumption.
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Wednesday February 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not to be underestimated.
He has keen insight into the Middle East but his intelligence on Israel is open to question.
In a recent statement Ahmadinejad declared:
"According to information we have they (Israel) are seeking to start a war next spring or summer, although their decision is not final yet."
Ahmadinejad did not mention more specifics.
He did not say against whom Israel would go to war, but he did have very specific reasons for making this information public.
Ahmadinejad wants regional leaders and local citizens to be on edge.
He knows that the threat of war will be a galvanizing force in the region, that it will unite all Arab countries against Israel.
Ahmadinejad is probably talking about Israel going to war against Hezbollah, Syria or Iran, but his intelligence is totally off base.
Ahmadinejad will do whatever he can to propel his own agenda forward with other countries in the region.
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Tuesday February 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has been in Israel since Sunday.
Mullen is making the rounds of everyone who is anyone in Israel. He has met with the defense minister, the prime minister, and of course, Gabi Ashkenazi, Israeli Chief of Staff.
They are talking about several ideas - but there is only one topic that is important to both sides, Iran.
The United States wants to make certain that Israel will not act without getting their OK. Mullen made it very clear that the US will do everything to defend Israel.
Mullen also made it clear that but Israel cannot act alone.
The problem with the entire US/Israel exchange is that the United States and Israel are looking at the Iranian problem from very different perspectives.
The United States is thinking in terms of a defensive stand which does not allow for a preemptive strike. For Israel it is all about the offensive.
Without a preemptive strike Iran has a free hand.
More importantly, Iran has the upper hand.
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Monday February 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Lebanon is claiming that they chased four Israeli jets out of their airspace yesterday by shooting anti aircraft weapons at them.
Israel has not commented on either the flights or the shooting.
These flyovers have irked Lebanon for years.
The rhetoric and the frustration are reaching new levels.
Israel has a long history of flying over southern Lebanon.
They use the air space for maneuvers and for reconnaissance.
Israel needs to constantly monitor what happens in Southern Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon is where Hezbollah stores arms and trains for attacks against Israel.
Tensions over Lebanon will continue to climb until the rhetoric calms down.
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Sunday February 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Baroness Jenny Tonge, a member of the British House of Lords in England from the Liberal Party, has been forced to step down as Health Spokesperson for her party.
This past week Tonge was quoted in the Jewish Chronicle urging Israeli authorities to investigate the charge that while in Haiti, Israeli doctors harvested organs at their mobile surgical hospital.
Jenny Tonge should be ashamed.
When a Baroness raises this kind of myth publicly she is acting as the spokesperson for anti-Semites, nor for her party.
I commend Liberal Party leadership for removing Tonge from her position.
There is no truth to the canard.
It is an outright lie.
It is a modern-day blood libel.
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Saturday February 13, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Somali pirates released a ship and its hostages after the government of Taiwan paid the ransom.
The men were released on Thursday, the ship was seized ten months ago.
The ship was a tuna fishing boat with a crew of thirty aboard.
In the course of captivity, three crew members died.
The story of Somali pirates has died down - but there are still seven ships and about 160 crew members still held captive.
The International Task Force has had some small impact. Last week, for example, a team of Danish commandos stormed and freed a ship.
But they are still far from freeing ships and captives and ridding the world of piracy.
We need a serious response to the problem of piracy.
Piracy has transported the shipping industry back to the 18th century where lawless thieves on the open seas bring Western civilizations to their knees.
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Friday February 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
To give you a sense of how tense the situation is in Iran, just look at who was detained yesterday when she arrived in Teheran for a celebration rally marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
The granddaughter of the Ayatollah Khomeini, that's who.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was the founder of the Revolution and his granddaughter was detained along with her husband who also happens to be the brother of the former president of Iran, the Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami.
These are people beyond reproach and with impeccable Iranian pedigrees.
But they are also considered dangerous by today's regime because any action or comments from them could sway many undecided people in Iran away from the current leadership and into the waiting arms of the reformers.
No one is safe in Iran.
Silence speaks as loudly as do actions and involvement.
In Iran there is no such thing as standing safely on the sidelines.
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Wednesday February 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The State Department released Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's schedule yesterday and on the agenda is the Middle East.
The secretary of state will be spending Saturday through Tuesday in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
This is Clinton's first trip to Qatar as the top US diplomat and she will be talking about two major topics.
The first topic she will address is Iran.
The second topic is jump starting the Israel/Palestinian dialogue.
Clinton will be addressing the US - Islamic World Forum and she will deal with these two topics in both public and behind closed doors.
The United States needs to apply pressure on Iran.
The Forum is the perfect place to recruit regional leaders to join forces with the West and help isolate Iran.
This trip by the secretary of state could turn out to be a very effective diplomatic maneuver on the part of the United States.
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Tuesday February 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
An al Qaeda website broadcast an audio recording of Said a Shaheri, the deputy head of al Qaeda in Yemen.
What makes this broadcast newsworthy is the fact that Said a Shaheri was supposed to have been one of 30 leaders killed last month in a Yemeni Air Force raid that strafed their camp.
In the broadcast Shaheri spoke of his true objective and tried to persuade recruits to join his mission.
He said:
"The Christians, the Jews, and the treacherous apostate rulers have pounced on you ... you have no other way out from this plight other than to wage jihad,"
He continued:
"We advise you, our people in the Peninsula, to prepare and carry your weapons and to defend your religion and yourselves and to join your mujahideen brothers."
Said a Shaheri is one of those notorious prisoners released from US custody in Guantanimo Bay, Cuba who has re-emerged as a significant al Qaeda leader.
Upon his return to Yemen Shaheri assumed his previous role and he continues to evade the West.
It is becoming more and more apparent that, best intentions aside, we are the ones who continue to facilitate the growth and strengthening of al Qaeda.
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Monday February 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday CNN broadcast an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan. The Monarch was eloquent as he described the ticking time bomb that is the Middle East.
King Abdullah minced no words.
He said point blank that President Obama needs to dedicate time to change the situation on the ground between Palestinian and Israelis.
The King exaggerated slightly when he said that an opportunity for peace would be lost if not accomplished in the next thirty days. But he was correct in describing correctly the disappointment that is felt throughout the Arab and Muslim world that President Obama has not made the Middle East a top priority.
The King asserted that the possibility for a two-state solution is slipping away. If that opportunity slips away, so will the possibility for normalizing relations between Palestinians and Israelis.
The King implored President Obama to take action now.
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Sunday January 7, 2010
Ive Been Thinking:
It is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Iran has planned a ten day celebration.
The excitement had been limited to the launching of rockets and the unveiling of satellites.
Now, according to Iranian radio, the Iranians are now adding two new missiles to their arsenal.
The first is an anti-helicopter missile.
The second is an anti-armor, anti-tank weapon.
There is an expression: work for peace and prepare for war.
We should assume that Iran is preparing for war and not for peace.
Presenting the new weapons is one of the ways Iran engages in a game of intimidation. The Iranians are demonstrating that they have capabilities and weaponry that will exact a toll on any attacking forces.
Iran has a larger plan.
They are allowing us one glimpse at a time.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday February 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Irish Herald reported yesterday that the assassins who killed Hamas operative Mohamed Mabouh in his hotel room in Dubai were traveling on Irish passports.
The report could not be confirmed from through any other source.
On more than one occasion the Dubai chief of police has said that the killers entered and left on European Union passports.
Most people are still pointing their fingers at Israel.
The use of Irish passports does not giv