Sunday May 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran passed their 2013 budget. It is equivalent to a whopping $462 billion.

This new budget is a reduction of 9% from the 2012 allocation. Iran is tightening its belt. Next year will be more difficult for them, especially if the cost of oil drops and the Iranians know that full well.

If, however, the cost of oil stays at $100/ barrel Iran will more than likely have more than enough to cover the budget.

That is what happened in the last quarter of 2011. The sanctions began to work and more and more countries began applying pressure on Iran. Just as the Western world began to believe that there was a chance that serious pressure could be brought upon the Iranians - the price of oil increased and so did Iran's profits.

Just this week Iraq overtook Iran as the second largest oil exporter in the region. And the price of oil per barrel has continued to drop and remains below $100.

These are signs that we must monitor closely.

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Friday May 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran threatened to sue Google.

From the Iranian point of view, the suit has great merit and touches upon a critical issue. It involves Iran's identity and her pride.

It is about her history and about her name.

In their Google Maps section, Google has renamed the peninsula that had once been called the Persian Gulf and Peninsula. They are now calling it the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula.

This battle over names has been an ongoing and fierce fight in the region. It was the cause the cancelation of the Pan Islamic games.
Arab countries in the region insist on calling the water and region the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran thinks otherwise.

The reality is that Google can call it whatever name it wants - provided it is an established name. And Iran has the right to block Google and Google Maps and prevent it from being received on Iranian computer networks.

But that is, to their chagrin, all the recourse available to the Iranians.

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Thursday May 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ampal - American Israel Corp., the Israeli energy company, owns 12.5% of East Mediterranean Gas, the Egyptian owned company that exports natural gas to Israel and Jordan.

Yesterday Ampal wrote off their investment and gave it up. They have been invested in the company for 20 years.

Their pipeline was being bombed on an almost monthly basis. And when the first quarter figures came in, it became apparent that Ampal was taking big losses. Some tanking was expected but the dollar figures more than proved the point. Last year Ampal made $17 million in the first quarter. This year's first quarter losses showed $215 million.

No company can justify that loss.

Ampal, the Israelis and the American investors all need to cut their losses and run.

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Wednesday May 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There has been an explosion in the oil pipeline in Syria. The bombing was originally reported by Syrian rebels and then it was reported in the Syrian press. The press also reported that pipelines had been bombed by rebel forces on April 21 and April 29.

There are several important issues here. Syria is not a player in the world oil market so the destruction of these oil lines will have no impact on world prices. Syrian production is already at 30% of what it was before the rebellion.

The explosion/s will, however, have a serious impact on Syrian cash flow. Oil is extremely fungible and the Syrians need the cash so they need to export whatever they can. The EU has a block against Syrian oil.

Convenience in shipping is very important and this oil is easily piped to the ports, loaded onto tankers and shipped. The best partner for oil from Syria is Iran they use tankers which are flags for hire. They get the crude and take it where it needs to go. But right now many Iranian tankers are filled with oil and sitting, waiting for a port of call to unload their black gold.

It seems that the pressure being applied to Iran is impacting, perhaps even more strongly and effectively, on Syria.

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Tuesday May 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is suffering from a double health crisis. This kind of public health disaster has the potential to devastate not only Egypt but the entire region, including Israel.

Egyptian animals and livestock are suffering from both Foot and Mouth Disease and from Avian Flu.

Millions of animals are sick at this stage, there is almost no stopping the diseases. The Avian Flu has been spread by animals infecting humans. Egypt has had 60 deaths so far and almost 200 people are known to be infected with the deadly flu. More than any other county outside of Indonesia.

The Foot and Mouth Disease was imported from Libya during the uprising when
more than 10% of Libyan livestock were killed because of it. In order to avoid the losses herds were hurried across the border into Egypt and now much of the meat is contaminated.

The only method of stopping these diseases, outside of mass slaughter, is to isolate or inoculate. Because of the current status of the army and the lack of any faith in government there is almost no chance that anything will be done. $1.8 million worth of shots arrived in March, but they have barely been used.

This could destroy the protein sources of the region and spill back into Libya, Sudan, Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.

This is serious.

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Monday May 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential front runner Abul Fotouh said, in a late Saturday night interview, that the treaty with Israel is a security risk to Egypt.

He said: "It should be revised."

In an earlier debate with Amr Mousa, another presidential contender, Abul Fotouh called Israel "the enemy." He also called Israel a racist state. Speaking about the treaty he said: "It is a treaty that forbids Egypt from exercising full sovereignty in the Sinai and allows Israelis to enter Sinai without visas, while they need visas for Cairo."

His take on Osama bin Laden is the quintessential example of the world view of this man who may yet become the next president of Egypt. Abul Fotouh refused to condemn bin Laden as a terrorists. He said that if bin Laden was tried by a real court it would be different. But there was no trial. He was not found guilty. He was not a terrorist.

That is his logic.

Abul Fotouh is called the liberal Muslim.

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Sunday May 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week I was critical of Turkey and of the Turkish economy. The S&P had downgraded them and I explained that it was a direct result of their economic and diplomatic POV. That POV, I explained, made them an economic risk - or at least no longer an exceptional economic choice. As I wrote, Turkey went ballistic over the downgrade.

Well, at the end of last week Moody's - which is the other index or rating company, downgraded Israel from stable to negative.

Israel was downgraded for several reasons. A high percentage of domestic bank loans to huge Israeli corporations was one very important reason.

Geopolitical tensions was another important reason given for the downgrade. These tensions make international investment in Israel risky. Moody's was referring to the Arab Spring and to threats from Iran.

The report stated that in the past these tensions have not stopped Israel from growing, that Israel has bounced back and has been able to show creativity and economic stability despite the risk factors. This is a critical factor in understanding the position of Israel within the region.

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Saturday May 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia just committed to a gargantuan aid package to Egypt. I know, I know --- didn't Saudi Arabia make the same pledge last year?
Last year the Saudis pledged 3.7 billion but, because of the turbulence in Egypt, they never followed thru with the money.

This year, on Thursday, Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million in aid. They also committed to depositing $1 billion into the Egyptian Central Bank.

And, as if that was not enough, Saudi Arabia committed to supplying Egypt with $250 million worth of butane gas which is used for cooking.

Egypt has also asked the IMF for $3.2 billion in aid.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Egypt in a few weeks. Saudi Arabia will want to make certain that Egypt is stable before they send over that hard cold cash.

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Friday May 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking

Just hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wrapped up a two day diplomatic blitz in India, a huge bombshell drops.

The Clinton visit was all about getting on board against Iran. Clinton was pressuring India to restrict their oil imports from Iran.

Here is the bomb: Within hours after the visit, India and Iran signed a deal - a trade deal. Ostensibly, the deal is for India to provide sugar, rice and soybeans to Iran. In reality, it is a barter for oil.

Iran gives oil to India. India pays for the oil with sugar, rice and soybeans. This way, Iran does not have rupee problems and currency issues - and India is not in trouble for violating international sanctions by giving Iran US dollars.

We know this is happening because Iran has always been skittish about taking rupees. In February Iran took payment of only 45% in currency for their oil shipments.

This is a classic diplomacy story with the United States. Allies agree with the United States when they talk to the United States, and when the conversation is over, they turn around and do whatever is in their own best interests. The US has not yet learned that lesson

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Thursday May 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The rebels in Syria are striking at military targets. A Syrian army convoy was hit by a roadside bomb Wednesday injuring 6 soldiers.

The report was issued by a foreign journalist traveling with UN observers. The bomb exploded seconds after the UN convoy passed. The UN observers and the journalist had a perfect view of the explosion and its aftermath.

Roadside bombs are a menace. They were the most dangerous tool used by al Qaeda against US troops in Iraq. They were used against civilians and against pilgrims.

The use of a roadside bomb by Syrian rebels is a classic tool taken from the al Qaeda handbook.

This bomb was very sophisticated. It was remote control operated. The controller was within eye view of the explosion and ignited the bomb either by radio frequency or by cell phone.

If road side bombs become common place in Syria the cost in lives could be extremely high.

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Wednesday May 9,2012

I've Been Thinking:

Here is my insight into the new unity government in Israel.

The newly elected head of Kadima is a perfect partner for the Likud leader. Shaul Mofaz is a hawk on issues of security. He served as defense minister under Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and was a successful chief of staff of the IDF, Israel's army. He is Iranian by birth, born in Teheran, to parents who came, originally, from Isfahan. His given name was Shahram Mofazzez Zadeh, a very ethnic sounding name - Shaul Mofaz has the ring of a true Israeli name.

Mofaz deeply understands Iranians, not just their language but also their mind set. He has a more liberal point of view than does Netanyahu on economics and social welfare. They are the perfect counter balance to each other.

Kadima is really a center- center/left party. And Likud is center -center/right. The coalition they have formed is now strongly center based. It is so strongly center that even if a party or two on either side of the spectrum should decide to leave the coalition it will have no impact on the stability of the government.

This is not an insider baseball issue. The ramifications of this newly formed coalition in Israel will not affect only Israeli society. This broad unity government under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu and then Shaul Mofaz has carte blanch on issues connected to security, Iran, and the Palestinians peace process -issues of vital import to the greater region and to the West.

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Tuesday May 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda released a new video yesterday which is now on Youtube. On the video 70 year old captive American human rights consultant Warren Weinstein sits crossed legged and begs President Obama for his life.

The video has the prisoner telling Obama that his life is in his hands and that he, like the president, is the father of two daughters. He asks the president to do what the terrorists ask.

Weinstein was kidnapped in Pakistan last August and this is the first real evidence that he is still alive. His wife in Maryland was relieved to see that, despite losing weight, her husband Warren seemed to be otherwise okay.

Kidnappings are common, but most of the time, the kidnappers demand a ransom. The kidnappers are mostly tribal. This is a kidnapping with a twist. This is an al Qaeda ala Khalid Sheik Mohammed style kidnapping, akin to the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl.

There is no way to negotiate with al Qaeda.

I hope and pray that this kidnap victim will have a different fate.
I hope but I am not hopeful.

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Monday May 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

No one should be surprised that Khalid Sheik Mohamed and his cohorts are using their trial to advance their own agenda.

Of course that is what they are doing. The United States presented these ultimate thugs with a stage and with an open microphone.

Did the powers that be in the super power called the United States think that after nine years in prison KSM would be rehabilitated, that he would suddenly respect the institutions of Western liberal democracy and humbly submit to its august power. This is the same man who masterminded the 9-11 attacks and beheaded Daniel Pearl because of what the Wall Street Journal symbolically represented.

The delusional decision makers, those who determined that an open trial was an appropriate forum, should be ashamed. They should be reprimanded, charged with incompetence for putting 9-11 victims and families through an unnecessary and pre-ordained ordeal, for subjecting them to the language and actions of the men who have now twice desecrated them and their loved ones.

This was the moment the terrorists were yearning for, it was another dream come true.

In the eyes of the terrorists the only way it could have been better was if they were given a totally public trial in civilian court.
There were celebrations across terrorist networks as reports circulated of their comrades-in-arms spitting, not only on the graves of the deceased, but also in the face of the US judicial system.

These thugs have once again become terrorist role models.
But this time it is we who put them in the limelight.

Shame, shame, on us.

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Sunday May 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is spending Sunday and Monday in India. According to an aid travelling with her, at the top of the agenda is convincing India to reduce their import of oil from Iran.

This is a very noble task. It is also herculean and an almost impossible feat to accomplish.

Of course, India will agree to curtail or limit or reduce or all of the above their import of oil from Iran - but they cannot.

India is an economic beast, they are the second largest nation in the world with well over a billion people - and they need oil.

Anytime extra oil pops up on the open market India gobbles it up.

This is a clear example of ideas coming into conflict with reality. India favors isolating Iran but they need the oil and cannot risk a lull. So India will continue to quietly import their oil from anywhere, including Iran.

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Saturday May 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Standard and Poor's is the most influential rating agency in the world. They rate countries and they rate their credit.

This week Turkey was dropped from "positive" to "stable." And if you had asked me, I would have said that I was surprised it was not dropped even lower. Turkey would have dropped even more had it not been for some very dynamic economic legislation.

This will certainly drop the credit rating of Turkey and that drop in credit rating will immediately impact on their interest which means that the cost of their loans will skyrocket.

The Turks are livid - on the same day the S&P dropped their rating, they improved the rating on Greece.

Turkey is claiming bias and the president of Turkey has announced that Turkey no longer relies on the S&P.

The reality is that Turkey only had minimal growth of 4% in 2011 and expect only 2% this year. Exports are only 24% of their economy and prices increased 11% in April. China holds most of their debt and the debt is in the form of a short term loan.

Turkey can be as angry as they want but they are in bad economic shape and it ony looks worse in the short term future.

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Friday May 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Vice President of Iran just wound up a visit to Hezbollah-controlled Southern Lebanon and Southern Beirut.

Muhammad Reva Rahimi stood on the Lebanese side of the border and looked over into Israel. He spoke about the need to continue resistance which, in his terms, means terror. He said that Israel is doomed.

Rahimi met with Hezbollah leader Sheik Hass Nasrallah.

Dignitaries do not regularly meet with Hezbollah. Only Iranians does, because Iran is an ally of Hezbollah.

It should be noted, however, that according to a leak that was spread earlier this week EU representatives met with Hezbollah in order to see how Hezbollah can use their influence in Syria and Southern Lebanon to maintain clam.

When it became obvious and clear that indeed it was true that Hezbollah and the European Union met, Israel blew a gasket -diplomatically speaking.

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Thursday May 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday was a slice of life day in the Middle East.

On Wednesday we were given a glimpse of both the deep seated problems and dangers inherent in the region as well as the topsy turvy nature of today's Middle East.

It was a very bloody day.

In Syria, opponents to the regime successfully killed 20 military personnel including two colonels. It is the largest number of deaths in any single strike to date since the revolt against the regime began.

In Egypt, 20 protesters were murdered by a group of hooligans.

Witnesses report that the protesters were sitting down when a group of thugs emerged and violently attacked them. Conventional wisdom is that these thugs were part of an organized, civilian, plain clothed group of police and military. They were sent in to intimidate - and ended up killing.

In Syria the attack was against the military. In Egypt the attack was against the protesters. Situation and places could have easily been inverted.

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Wednesday May 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head UN international observer in Syria made a very important observation yesterday.

He said that both sides are violating the ceasefire.

Yes, Assad's men are violating the ceasefire - but so, too, are the rebels.

This conflict is more complicated than it appears. Most of the rebels are from al Qaeda and most of the recent attacks have been perpetrated by them.

The observers will increase their number over the next few weeks from 28 to 300. But this will not bring a ceasefire. The job of the observers is to observe.

Most of the real rebels have gone back to school, fled, been killed or arrested.

The Syrian army has successfully cracked down and destroyed almost all local rebel movements. Now we are witnessing a new style of attack - car bombs and suicide bombs and attacks at large populated hangouts.

These are all al Qaeda tactics.

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Tuesday May 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The US has deployed a set of F-22's, also known as Raptors, in the United Arab Emirates, the UAE. The report comes via the Iranian Defense Minister, Ahmad Vahidi.

Vahidi is quoted in the Iranian press calling the deployment harmful to the region and part of a psychological war. The planes, according to the report, are based in Al Dafra Air Base.

While we may find out many details from the Iranians, all the information we receive must be carefully evaluated. There is no reason, however, to assume that this piece of information is incorrect.

The F-22 Raptor is a stealth superfighter. It cannot be detected by radar. It is illegal to sell these planes to anyone - even to the closest allies of the United States.

The F-22 is one of the US's secret weapon. Putting a group of these planes in the UAE at Al Dafra puts them 200 miles from Iran. That means that the United States is literally a few hundred seconds away from striking at the their target.

This is what is called a major game changer. Now Iran must assume that the United States has the element of surprise - until now, Iran never believed that the United States could surprise them.

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Monday April 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Wednesday is the anniversary of the assassination of Osama bin Laden.
On May 2, 2011 the United States embarked upon a spectacular mission that resulted in the killing of the world's #1 terrorist leader.

And now, one year later, the West should be on high alert.

The terrorist world is highly aware of anniversaries. Terrorists preach, talk and write about anniversaries - about the events and the players. And they sermonize about exacting revenge against their enemy.

Over the past month al Qaeda has let loose a non-stop program of propaganda about exacting revenge against America and the West and anyone who could be blamed for killing Osama bin Laden.

There is no actionable intel offering details or targets - but there is no doubt that there are groups working to strike out at us this week. Even more problematic that the group effort is the lone wolf -and there are certainly line wolves who are planning attacks, too.
Americans, Westerners, be wary, be alert, stay smart.

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Sunday April 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Council, composed of six Gulf states, is starting to organize a significant front to protect itself from two threats on the horizon.

The first threat is Iran and Iranian nuclear aspiration.
The second threat is the Arab Spring.

The Saudi deputy foreign minister outlined their strategy saying that the GCC must coordinate defense and intelligence resources.

The GCC, composed of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Oman, is the most organized subgroup within the Arab world. They are Western allied and feel a great threat from Iran and Islamists movements. They view the Arab Spring as an Islamist cast off of Western influence. And they understand that the obsession the United States has with liberalizing the Arab world and calling for Arab elections is catastrophic to their own point of view and positions of power.

The GCC sees all Iranian moves, including the desire for nuclear technology, as a power grab and an attempt to inject Shiite control over the region.

The GCC seems to have a very well defined and informed strategy and may be one of the only groups with a workable plan to repel the Iranian threat.

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Saturday April 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian parliament is debating the "Farewell Intercourse Law."

This is a law that will, if passed, permit men to practice necrophilia. According to the Farewell Intercourse Law a man will be permitted to man have sex with his dead wife within six hours of her death.

I couldn't make this up.

The legal precedent is brought forth by an Iman from Morocco named Azamazi. Last year this Imam explained that the death of a spouse does not end the marriage, that in Islam, husband and wife are married in the afterlife. If they are married in the afterlife they will have sex there - so when one is alive and one is dead, that is just a transition status.

The expression Azamazi used was that necrophilia is "halal." In Arabic and in Islamic law halal is kosher. It means that it is acceptable in Islamic law.

Imam Azamazi also taught women can do the same with their husbands -which is highly unlikely. The Imam concluded his fatwa, his religious ruling, by saying that this behavior, even if permissible, is not advisable.

The parliamentary debate revolved around whether the world will look askance if Egypt passes this law - and if the Egyptians should care about what the world thinks.

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Friday April 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian election for president is taking place next month. As of now 13 candidates have been approved to run.

Yesterday a panel of Islamic leaders endorsed Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate. The reason the committee formed and then issued an endorsement is that Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh recently split from the Muslim Brotherhood and is mounting a more practical and more realistic Islamic campaign.

The two candidates are certain to split the Muslim Brotherhood vote.

This announcement and the meeting that preceding it were meant to undercut Abolfotoh's campaign.

The campaign is not liberal by any means - but it is more practical. That might just speak to Egyptian Islamic voters. And if it does, then the Muslim Brotherhood will watch the presidency slip through their fingers

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Thursday April 26, 3012

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a minor revolution in Saudi Arabia - and it may have major results. No one in the West is talking about it, but I'll tell you what happened.

A school for girls in Saudi Arabia officially erected a set of basketball hoops and is permitting the girls to play during their spare time. It is the first state run school officially permitting sports for girls, the first school to say that sports is a proper use of student time.

This is no small event in Saudi education. It means that the old school attitude towards girls and modern physical activity is being chipped away. Female sports means placing an emphasis on things which have until this very moment been taboo in Islamic culture.

There will most certainly be a backlash. I expect some violence and serious rhetorical attacks against Saudi leadership, against the parents and against the girls themselves.

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Wednesday April 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran was hit by another computer virus. This is a Viper virus. Once it opens it propagates and continues to grow in every file that is opened.

The Viper targeted oil production and oil transfer components of Iran. It also struck the Oil Ministry. On Sunday the ministry shut down and took numerous computers offline to protect its programs.
The official response from Iran is that no data was lost.

That is a ridiculous assertion - the Viper and viruses like the Stuxnet and DUQU which previously struck Iran are not about data.
The purpose of these viruses is to corrupt the command system. The viruses literally have minds of their own. When you want A, you get Z instead.

This virus, the Viper, is a very bold strike against the very soft belly of Iran. Until now the cyber war was against nuclear facilities and research - annoying and a setback to "the cause."

This attack strikes at the heart of the Iran's financial sources and livelihood. Fifty of the country's most gifted techi's were summoned to the Oil Ministry on Tuesday to put their heads together to solve the crisis and make certain that the oil industry is safe.

I am curious to see if they will succeed.

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Tuesday April 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

NATO is having a summit in Chicago on May 20-21.

It seems that that Turkey is making it clear that Israel should be banned from the summit.

Behind closed doors Turkey is saying that Israel has not apologized for the flotilla.

Officials of NATO have said that the purpose of the organization is inclusive - and Israel is part of a subgroup of regional committees within NATO.

Officially, Turkey is saying that they have not made any appeal to NATO on the subject. The reality is that Turkey is continuing a campaign to isolate Israel. They are doing their best to try to coordinate condemnation of Israel.

It appears that, this time at least, NATO is not biting at the bait.

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Monday April 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Of course, things could be worse but - the relationship between Israel and Egypt has reached a thirty year low. Egypt has officially cancelled their natural gas deal with Israel. The new policy went into effect on Thursday and was not made public until Sunday.

Thirty three years ago Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty and part of the treaty was that Egypt would provide natural gas for a predetermined price.

Since the ousting of Mubarak the pipeline has been attacked fourteen times. And since the ousting there has been massive public rejection of the special relationship and treaty that Egypt has with Israel.
So they shut the pipeline down.

This will have a huge impact on Egypt. It will set them back economically and will send the wrong message to corporations and countries thinking of doing business with them. The Egyptians are sending out a message saying that they are not reliable. The only country that may view this as a good thing is Iran - and Egypt is unlikely to accept investment from their arch enemy Iran even if they are starving.

The occasion was used as a platform for the candidates running for president in the Egyptian election. They each weighed in on the topic and, not surprisingly, praised the decision.

Consider this typical of current decision making in Egypt. We can look forward to more of the same.

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Sunday April 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last night a church was fire bombed in Khartoum, Sudan.

Tensions in Khartoum, a very valuable oil city and important region, are fierce. There is no doubt that the reason for the conflict is oil - but the reason for targeting a church is religious.

The church is a symbol of outsiders, of non-Muslims. The tension emerges because both Muslims and Christians in Khartoum are locals.

We are not talking about Western missionaries, but still, the Christians of Khartoum are being labeled as interlopers and told that they do not belong.

So the church was targeted and it was bombed.

Once again I ask: Where is the Christian world, where is the Western world, how can this clearly targeted attack pass without no comment let alone outcry from Westerners around the world?

As with the persecution of Christians in Egypt, I feel as if I am a lonely voice howling in the wind.

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Saturday April 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There have been several reports over the past few days that the Palestinian Authority has begun oil exploration in Ramallah.

I have not been able to verify these reports.

I can say that it sounds farfetched.

Even if someone has set up what appears to be a drill site it is highly unlikely that there is any oil in Ramallah - other, of course, than olive oil. World class geologists have combed the region and found no oil.

More importantly, Ramallah is on a mountain range. And oil exploration is extremely risky and very expensive. I do not see any serious oil groups taking that risk in a location that is such an obvious non-starter.

There is a back story and a motivation for the announcements. The Palestinians want to make it appear as if they found something --- something very valuable--- something the Israelis could not find and - this is the most important part - that the oil belongs to the them, the Palestinians, and not to the Israelis.

But it is all still highly unlikely.

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Friday April 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The game continues.

As I reminder: Several days ago I wrote that Iran was outsmarting the EU by making the first move and cutting off oil sales and forcing them to scramble to find new suppliers before Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain were going to cut themselves off from Iranian oil.

In essence, Iran was cutting the European Union off before the EU total boycott went into effect and cut them off.

Then yesterday the Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Ghassemi denied reports claiming that Iran stopped supplying oil to Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain. He said that Iran sells to all of Europe except France and England.

All this is a smoke screen. Iran needs Europe to know that their oil flow starts and stops as easily as the turning of a spigot.

Iran's game is to clearly say that they have actually made money since the embargo. They claim to have earned $14 billion more than in this period last year. How could that be the case with the embargo in full swing?

There are two reasons: Reason one is that the price of oil has increased, so even if they are selling less oil, they can still be making more money. Reason two is that China and India are picking up every barrel of slack. Every barrel that Iran produces has a buyer. And China and India do not care about the international embargo.

Just yesterday China announced that they disagree with the United States policy of punishing people who do business with Iran.

Here you have it, the game of international diplomacy.

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Thursday April 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem received two very special guests.

The guests traveled together and prayed together, one of them actually led the prayers.
Who were these guests? They were Ali Gomma, the Grand Mufti of Egypt and Ghazi bin Muhammad, Prince of Jordan. The prince is the first cousin of King Abdullah II.

An aide to the Grand Mufti said that he did not enter Israel or get a visa from either the border authority or the Interior Ministry. That means he came in with the prince on his private helicopter.

Last week another prince visited Al Aqsa. That time it was the son of Abdullah II.

There are several reasons for these sudden visits to the Mosque. Most importantly, Jordan is exerting its religious authority over the Temple Mount which was in their control until 1967. The Jordanians still have a major say in its operation - Israel prefers Jordanian control to Palestinian control over this very holy site.

There are also ugly rumors circulating that Israel is causing damage to the Temple Mount, especially at the Mugabri Gate. The rumors are untrue and unfounded and the revered guests are able to report back about the situation.

The Temple Mount is an extremely sensitive site. Anger over the site could instigate a war in the Islamic world. It is in the best interest of everyone to make certain that, despite rumors and propaganda, all is well cared for and in order.

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Wednesday April 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like it is finally happening. Abu Qatada, an Imam in England, may finally be deported to Jordan.

Jordan has convicted Qatada of terror attacks. Court papers in Spain and England have submitted that he is a major al Qaeda figure. There is no doubt that he certainly preaches the message of al Qaeda.

Until now Qatada avoided extradition, but the momentum of the courts is now in full swing - they seem to have all their papers in order and are confident that this terror spewing Imam will be deported.

Abu Qatada is a perfect example of an Al Qaeda leader. He teaches and preaches hatred and violence in the name of Islam. When he gets back to Jordan he will be retried for previous acts of terror.

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Tuesday April 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is attempting to mend bridges with Egypt.

There has never been any love lost between the two countries, primarily because they have diametrically opposed stands on Islam.

And then after the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, the spilt became impossible to breach.

Iran actually named a square after the Sadat assassin and proclaimed him a hero.

But yesterday the Egyptian press was the guests of the Islamic Republic in Teheran. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi met with the Egyptian media and talked about nuclear issues.
The Iranian FM promised that Iran would provide nuclear technology and expertise to Egypt - but under supervision.

This is actually Iran's ultimate goal. Iran wants to provide nuclear technology to any and every country that asks for it throughout the world.

Iran wants to remove the United States from the global picture.

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Monday April 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Security personnel along the Egyptian border were on extra high alert on Saturday and Sunday.

Why? Because last week the natural gas pipeline leading to Jordan and Israel was blown up for the 14th time.

And indeed, on both Saturday and Sunday the security fence sensors were set off.

Also on Sunday armed bands attacked and killed two Egyptian policemen in the Sinai Desert.

There is great worry that the rockets and the smuggling in the dessert will lead Israel to strike at terror targets in Sinai. That is what Omar Suleiman, the former Mubarak spy chief and currently disqualified presidential candidate, recently said.

Suleiman told the Egyptians that if they do not control Sinai, Israel will attack.

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Sunday April 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The committee supervising the Presidential elections in Egypt disqualified 10 candidates yesterday evening.

Threats of violence are in the air.

The disqualified included the Muslim Brotherhood candidate who is by far the most popular in the field. He was disqualified because of two criminal convictions. Also disqualified was the Salafist candidate about whom it is said that his mother held a US passport.

He was disqualified even though a court ruled on Thursday that he was eligible.

Another popular and disqualified candidate is the former spy chief and deputy PM who was only appointed deputy PM a few days before Mubarak's resignation. He is said to be too close to the former regime.

The disqualified candidates have 48 hours to appeal. Everyone thinks that they will appeal.

If these decisions stand they could change the nature of the presidential election. We must watch closely and see how this plays out.

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Saturday April 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic leader in Germany is in the middle of a plan to distribute 25 million Korans to the people of Germany.

The Imam is a dynamic leader from Cologne. He is a Salafist. The Salafists are a very conservative element of Islam - even more conservative than the Muslim Brotherhood.

Thus far 300,000 Korans have been distributed.
The cleric wants to save the non-believers from hell. Others are up in arms over the Koran blitz. Opponents are saying that it is a personal violation of freedom of speech and a platform for extremist ideology and even terror.

The national security agencies responsible for watching extremist groups in Germany are monitoring this situation very closely.

In reality there is no real threat. My only caveat to that is there are about 80 million people in Germany. That would mean that there will be a Koran for every three people, or, more than one per family.

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Friday April 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has bolstered its army presence in the Sinai desert. They have just added significant numbers of troops along the border.

The new troop surge is there for three reasons. First, the Egyptians need to fight the illegal smuggling that takes place there. Second, the Egyptians are making an effort to clamp down on the rockets that are shot from Sinai into Israel. Third, Egypt is trying to prevent the blowing up of the gas lines that run through the area.

In other words, bringing more troops to the Sinai desert is an effort to bring law and order to the Sinai desert.

The single largest business in the area is smuggling. Consequently, stopping smuggling is not very popular with local Egyptians and the army has not been very successful in stopping the smuggling industry.

The important thing is that Egyptian leadership, aka the Egyptian army is taking a stand. And it is a law and order stand and that, hopefully, will have an impact on the Egyptian elections slated to take place in June.

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Thursday April 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet face to face with Palestinian Authority President Abbas. They each have an agenda.

Netanyahu wants to continue face to face talks and is willing to drop his demand that the PA first recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

Abbas has a list of demands that he wants Israel to comply with without any negotiating. One of those demands is a total halt to all settlement activity.

A huge problem may emerge.

Israel already embarked on a 10 month settlement stoppage - and no progress emerged. The only thing that did come out of that stoppage was the desire on the side of the PA to extend the stoppage.

Stopping settlements seems to be the objective of the PA, not peace.

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Wednesday April 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran cut its export of oil to Greece and to Spain. They also threatened to cut their exports to Italy and Germany.
Why would they do that? Don't they need markets for their oil?

Aren't they suffering from sanctions already?
They are and they do. But ... Great force and pressure has been laid on nations around the world by the United States and her Western allies to stop importing oil from Iran. As a result, as of July 1, the EU is supposed to discontinue all Iranian imported oil. So the Iranians are making the first move - they are stopping first.

Iran is one upping the EU ante. They are forcing thU to scramble for much needed oil resources. As opposed to Iran hurting economically, Iran is causing economic pain to those countries that were about to strike out against them.

Only one nation in the EU, Norway, produces enough oil to sustain itself.

Once again, the Iranians are outsmarting everyone.

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Tuesday April 10, 2012
I've Been Thinking:

Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced yesterday while on a visit to the Hormuzgan Province that Iran can easily survive oil sanctions for at least 2 years - even if they do not sell any oil.

"They (Western powers) want to impose sanctions on our oil and we must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn't sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily."

True, Iran has become energy independent. But what Ahmadinejad
neglected to say is that the vast majority of Iran's GNP is oil.

What Ahmadinejad is really saying is that the sale of oil to those who do not care about the boycott against can keep them afloat.

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Monday April 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

I saw a picture in an Iranian newspaper the other day in which Ahmadinejad was holding up a T-shirt with pictures of the Iranian nuclear scientist who were assassinated. Since 2010 four high level Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed.

Ahmadinejad was saying that you cannot assassinate or intimidate us into stopping our nuclear development. He called the scientists martyrs.

But there was some very bad news in the same newspaper. The inflation figure for 2011 was released and Iran claims that inflation rose 21.5% and the cost of goods rose 14.1%.

These figures are official government numbers. That means that they are probably grossly understated.

The real figures for inflation are probably 35-40% and the costs of goods have probably increased by 30%.

All the news that's fit to print, Iranian style.

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Sunday April 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Presidential election in Egypt has taken some interesting turns.
The former spy chief has thrown his hat in to the ring. That puts an interesting spin on the election. The image of the past will be front and center.

In addition, the former head of the Arab League and trusted right hand of Mubarak, Amr Moussa is a strong candidate. But rumors have emerged that Moussa is a Jew.

Websites are proclaiming that his half brother actually lives in Israel and that his mother is of partial Jewish decent.

Of course this is not true. Moussa's half brother is Pierre and he
lives in Paris.

In the meantime the Muslim Brotherhood candidate has proclaimed that the objective will be that all future legislation will be in line with Islamic law, Sha'ariyah.

If this were a movie script, no one would believe it.

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Saturday April 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Word has it that Iran has it nixed Turkey as the site for the next nuclear talks with the West. The talks are scheduled to take place next week on April 13.

Until now it was assumed that Turkey would be acting as host.

But yesterday and today comments are coming out of Iran by people involved in the process saying that they will not go to Turkey.

Turkey has already hosted these meetings in the past. Turkey had proved itself an ally of Iran by voting against sanctions when they sat on the Security Council. But that was then.

Now Turkey seems to want to get back into the good graces of the US and the rest of the West and so the Turks have spiked their critique of Iran.

The Iranian response is to nixing them from the position of host.

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Friday April 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab Youth and Sports Council of Ministers, chaired by a Saudi prince, has announced that the Arab Council will be boycotting Adidas.

Why? Because several weeks ago Adidas sponsored the Jerusalem Marathon.

"All companies that have sponsored the marathon of Jerusalem, including Adidas, will be boycotted." This is quote from Saudi Prince Nawaf bin Faisal, chairman of the Arab youth and sports council of ministers, which met yesterday in Jeddah.

It was their 35th meeting. The group is an official committee of the Arab League composed of ministers of sport from all Arab League members. They try to coordinate Arab international sports events and activities and resolve issues about sports between Arab countries.

I thought we were beyond the Israel boycott. Certainly Adidas thought so.

This puts the Arab League in violation of US law.

I know that Congress will be fuming - I wonder how or when the White House will respond.

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Thursday April 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There will be no Passover seder in the Israeli Embassy in Cairo this year. The entire staff, including the ambassador, will be at home with their families in Israel.

This is the first time since the 1979 peace accords between Israel and Egypt were signed that the Embassy will not be hosting a seder in Egypt.

The significance should not be lost on the excuses about technicalities that are being made.

Since the sacking of the Israeli embassy in Cairo several months ago the Israeli diplomatic presence in Egypt has been in flux and at times, it has even been in question.

As of now, the Egyptians are refusing to sell or even rent property to the Israelis. Conventional wisdom has it that the Israeli ambassador and his staff function out of a hotel room.
Oh, the irony.

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Wednesday April 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Malta delisted a merchant ship for violating international sanctions. That means that they removed the ship from their registry and are no longer allowing the ship to sail under the flag of Malta.

This is a huge success. The flag the ship was using is referred to as a "Flag of Convenience." Malta and Liberia are the largest of the countries that shield companies and other countries by allowing them use of their flag.

Malta delisted a freighter owned by MT Tour which is owned by ISIM Tour Ltd. MT Tour and ISIM Tour Ltd. are Iranian companies that were using the flag of Malta in order to break the sanctions.

The ship was picking up crude oil in Syria and shipping it to China. Syria could not find any other way to ship the 120,000 tons of crude worth $84 million. So Iran, at great risk, sent a cargo tanker ship to pick the freight up at the port of Tartus.

After seeing the evidence, Malta pulled the flag. Now everyone knows that the ship is from Iran - otherwise, with the flag of Malta flying on it, no one would have a clue where the ship was from and no one would have access to the paperwork to even investigate.

This is a small chink in the Syrian Iranian link. But If Malta continues to delist ships it may have a huge impact on the national products of both Iran and Syria.

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Tuesday April 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority arrested a woman today and is charging her with insulting President Mahmoud Abbas.

She did not say a word and not a word was put in print.

Ismat Abdul Khaleq is a lecturer at a university in the West Bank. On her Facebook page she posted that Abbas was a traitor and she demanded that he resign.

Ismat Abdul Khaleq is being charged for sedition in cyberspace. Prosecutors said that this goes beyond the pale and that Palestinians may not insult Abbas in any media.

This is not the first Palestinian crackdown on freedom of expression and writing on air and on line. A journalist named Yossef Al Shayeb was arrested for insulting members of the Abbas government. Two other journalists were arrested, interrogated and recently released.

One was interrogated about a Facebook entry while the second was interrogated about a story he was prepping and researching.

Do not be misled. The liberal Palestinian Authority is not what is appears to be.

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Monday April 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US policy toward Iran is taking shape. Given the rhetoric during the presidential campaign, it is not what one would have imagined.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a very long conversation with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Erdogan had just returned from a prolonged and detailed trip to Iran during which the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei explained that the Iranian nuclear program is about technology and energy and not about weapons of mass destruction.

Clinton responded by saying that those were ideals not policies statements. She said it is a good sign, but what is needed are real policy moves to prove what the Supreme Leader was saying and that those moves includes international inspections.

The AP quoted Clinton saying:

"They were told that the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) viewed weapons of mass destruction as religiously prohibited, as against Islam" ... "We are meeting with the Iranians to discuss how to translate what is a stated belief into a plan of actio" ... "It is not an abstract belief, but a government policy. That government policy can be demonstrated in a number of ways ... The international community now wants to see actions associated with that statement of belief."

As we all know, actions speak louder than words.

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Sunday April 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptians are going through serious growth pains.

For example: The Muslim Brotherhood had been adamant in saying that they would not stand a candidate for president. Now they have announced that Khairat el Shater will represent the party in the presidential election.

He is a shoe in. With Khairat el Shater in power, the Muslim Brotherhood will have almost total control of Egypt. The only vestige of power outside their realm would be in the military - and it is precisely because of the military's current grip on power that the Brotherhood changed their mind and entered someone in the presidential race.

Another example: The Arabic paper Sharq al Awsat, published out of London, has reported that Israel is unable to get space for an embassy in Cairo. Egypt is refusing to rent or sell the Israelis property. There is, however, an Israeli ambassador in Egypt.
According to the account in the paper, he works out of his hotel room.

That's the New Egypt.

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Saturday March 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A slew of apologists have emerged to justify/ white wash the terror attack that took the lives of seven innocent victims in Toulouse, France. The apologists are trying to suggest that Mohmmed Merah was not a bad person and even more, that he himself was a victim.

Writers, even a professor of Islamic Studies at Oxford, have written that "Merah was a misguided youngster in whose thought there were no values of Islam or racist and anti-Semitic ideas."

Misguided????

Mohammad Merah murdered three children all under 8 years old and claimed it was the happiest moment of his life. Merah said that he did not want to be a kamikaze, he said that he wanted to live in order to kill more Jews.

It is extremely troubling that so many people are not willing or able to define Merah and his actions for what they are. It is a black and white issue - Merah committed mass murder to promote a political and religious agenda. That is called terror.

Merah was a Muslim terrorist. He was trained to be a terrorist and he espoused terrorist values and teachings.

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Friday March 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israel just bought an airstrip/airbase on the northern border of Iran. This is a real game changer.
Israel now has use of an Azerbaijani air base. Israel will revamp it and bring to up to their specs.

It is still unclear if this airbase is one of the four, now abandoned, former Soviet bases in the area or if Israel now has an airbase that Azerbaijan was using up until the purchase.

What is perfectly clear is that Israel now has close access to Iran and can act totally independently, without asking or even informing the United States. Not surprisingly, the United States is livid.

Add to that Saudi Arabian frustration with US inaction on Iran and the desire of the Saudis to help Israel strike at Iran and the possibility that they might themselves provide landing strips for Israeli planes - and you have all the pieces of the Israeli puzzle falling right into place.

It's official. Iran is worried.

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Thursday March 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tomorrow marks the beginning of Land Day activities throughout the Middle East and around the world.

Land Day is a Palestinian protest day created to remember the year 1976 when Israel declared its intention to take over 20,000 dunam of Arab land and use it for settlement development.

There are supposed to be multiple peaceful rallies throughout the
Palestinian Authority. They are expecting tens of thousands of foreign visitors to fly in over the next few days to participate in their marches.

Around the world Arab groups are symbolically marching toward Jerusalem. Because of the nature of cities and borders and the PA and Israel, communities sometimes literally abut one another. So several weeks ago the Israelis sent messages to bordering neighbors to make certain that people stay away from Israel's fences. Last year the Syrians tried to storm the Israeli border fence and rush into Israel.

Police in Israel are on high alert. They will have road blocks to make certain that the marches do not enter Israel and that the threat level remains low and Israelis are secure and safe.

The expectation is that rhetoric will be high but will not set off a third intifada.

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Wednesday March 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Lebanese newspaper reported on Tuesday on a recent meeting between Hamas and Iranian leaders. The purpose of the meeting was to synchronize a response in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran.
Iran is expecting Hamas to rain rockets down on Israel.

In exchange for this support Hamas will receive an immediate $33 million and will once again be part of the Iranian led gravy train.

In addition Iran wants to sabotage the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. This is already in the works. Hamas leaders in Gaza were never keen on the decision of Hamas leaders outside of Gaza to fraternize with Abbas and Fatah.

This Lebanese report confirms the Fatah/Palestinian Authority news reports and analyses that has been circulating over the past few weeks that Iran is supporting Hamas and trying to drive a wedge between Palestinians and foil any chances of reconciliation.

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Tuesday March 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is a severe gas crisis in Gaza. Taxis have ground to a halt, electric stations have stopped generating and cooking gas does not exist. There are black outs for 18 hours a day.

Israel will be blamed, but this is not Israel's fault. Israel actually just delivered 450,000 liters of diesel to Gaza. It is Egypt that supplies gas to Gaza. And Egypt has decided to abide by the traditional agreement that all gas must come through the Kerem Shalom crossing which is controlled by Israel.

Gaza does not want Israel to control their gas imports despite the stipulation in the treaty.

Egypt wants better control over the gas and does not want the gas to continue coming through the tunnels as has been happening since 2007.

Hamas is livid. They want the gas to come through the smuggling tunnels and are pushing Egypt to do what they have been doing since ousting the Palestinian Authority from Gaza. Only Egypt wants to be more responsible. The potential for an explosion is enormous.

Until Hamas and Egypt come to an agreement, 18 hour blackouts will be the new norm in Gaza.

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Monday March 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

According to a report in the French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche (The Sunday Journal), French terrorist Mohammad Merah was in a state of immense pleasure while brutally murdering Jews.

Just before the SWAT team stormed his apartment Merah explained to the police that he had hoped to murder many more Jews. He said he was sorry that he missed the day the students returned from vacation because then many more Jewish children would have been gathered in the entrance to the school.

Merah told the police that he did not want to end his life like a kamikaze. He wanted to live to kill more Jews. He said that during the killing he felt "endless pleasure."

He explained why he killed French soldiers in France as opposed to in Afghanistan where he was trained. Merah said that killing a French soldier in France is like killing six French soldiers in Afghanistan.

Do not misunderstand. This man was not crazy, he was not a lunatic. He was a cold blooded calculated mass murderer. He killed to achieve his political and religious goals.

Mohammad Merah was totally aware of his actions and of the ramifications of those actions.

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Sunday March 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

This goes into the hard to believe but certainly within the realms of the possible and even highly probable category:

The Sunday Times of London reported today that Israel is running an entire intelligence operation in Iran with significant numbers and extremely high technology. According to the report Israel's base of operations is in the Kurdish controlled province of Iraq.

From the Kurdish controlled areas Israel can cross into Iran and gather information and run/operate their agents to gather large amounts of intelligence.

According to the article and everyone who is analyzing this material-the idea is to find a smoking gun. Israel is looking to find real evidence of nuclear weapons and technology.

The teams, according to the Times of London report, have highly sensitive radioactive sensors and have even used black hawk helicopters to drop commandos into Iran to gather info. They are dressed as Iranian military and even use Iranian military vehicles.

Attention is focused on Parchin and Fordow near Qoms. Parchin is where the IAEA last asked to take a look and were politely told to look elsewhere. Satellite pictures show that the earth around Parchin was plowed under and that major earth-moving vehicle were at works there.

Conventional wisdom is that the Iranians tested a neutron trigger in Parchin and then did their best to get rid of the evidence.

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Saturday March 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A teacher in a high school just north of Paris is facing disciplinary action.

The teacher asked her students to stand for a moment of silence to honor the memory of Mohamed Merah - the terrorist who murdered seven people in cold blood in Toulouse.

Some of the students walked out in protest, but some stayed to hear what their teacher was planning and to try to understand her point of view. She said that Merah was not a terrorist and that it was all a rouse contrived by the media and by President Sarkozy. She added that Merah had no al Qaeda connections. The students immediately wrote a formal complaint to their principal.

The brother of Mohamed Merah announced how proud he was of his brother and said that in his home were 10,000 Euros worth of weapons including a Kalashinkov machine gun.

A CIA source in Kandahar said that Merah had visited Israel and was stopped by Israeli security because of a knife he was carrying. US officials also confirm that he was on a no fly list for the United States.

France knew all about Merah but according to a statement made by the prime Minister they could do nothing - until he perpetrated a crime.

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Friday March 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Madonna is adding a second concert to her Tel Aviv tour. It is called the Peace Concert. She said that if there is anything she or music can do to help bring about peace - she will try.
Several major peace groups have been called upon to attend and be part of the concert.

The first Madonna concert will be held on May 29 in Ramat Gan Stadium. The second concert is scheduled for May 31. Her newest album entitled MDNA is scheduled to be released on May 26.

Madonna last performed in Israel in 2009. She refuses to be intimidated by the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement. The BDS and many other sanction supporters have tried to pressure and even blackball Madonna and other performers to cancel their concerts in Israel.

Some performers have caved under the pressure. Madonna did not succumb to the BDS pressure in the past and will not now.

In her own words: "It is my way of thanking those who are making so much effort toward bringing peace to the Middle East."

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Thursday March 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The terror attacks in France are extremely troubling - not just for the obvious reasons.

France is "the" bastion of democracy in modern history. It was in France that the concepts of freedom and equality first became a reality and the first real test case for those concepts was the Jews. Jews were emancipated in France as part of the French Revolution.

Now a Muslim terrorist, a member of al Qaeda, purposefully and willfully and violently murders seven people in Toulouse - three Muslim soldiers and four Jews including three children under the age of eight.

The terrorist murdered Muslims because they were soldiers fighting for France and in the eyes of al Qaeda that is a treasonous act punishable by death. And he took it upon himself to mete out that punishment.

The terrorist attacked a Jewish school to, in his words, "avenge the Palestinian children." The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority Salam Fayyad responded by demanding that terrorists of this type cease and desist. He said: "It is time for these criminals to stop marketing their terrorist acts in the name of Palestine and to stop pretending to stand up for the rights of Palestinian children who only ask for a decent life."

These events have shaken France and they have shaken the Jewish world and everyone who believes in freedom and equality.

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Wednesday March 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told his people that sanctions against them would not work and that they must develop more domestically produced products.

The Supreme Leader also complimented US President Barak Obama. The Iranian leader said that he welcomed the stance of the US president that was embracing diplomatic solutions to the disagreements between their countries.

It is very important to understand this.

The diplomatic solution is by far the wisest resolution, but as the wheels of diplomacy slowly turn, the Iranians can be using the time to race toward nuclear proficiency.

For Iran talks are a win-win situation.

That is why the United States and the West must try to apply extremely costly and painful sanctions against Iran even and especially while the diplomatic option is explored.

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Tuesday March 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC, has gotten a commitment from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to propose the concept of daily cease fires in Syria to Syrian leadership.

In principle this would mean several hours every day during which the ICRC can provide service to victims. It will be a time when they can evacuate the wounded and provide medicine and food to those in need.

Russia agreed that it was a good idea and that they would relay the message to Syria.

The idea of having several hours dedicated to life saving measures was something Russia felt that they could convince Syria to adopt.

In response to a question asking if Lavrov thought that Syria would respond positively to Russian pressure about this daily ceasefire, Lavrov responded "absolutely."

This may make a difference for the wounded.

This is certainly further proof of the influence Russia wields in Syria.

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Monday March 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

In the backs of the minds of those who are planning and analyzing an Israeli strike on Iran is this question --- what will happen to the 23,000 - 25,000 Jews still living in Iran?

This is one of the huge questions that rests on the shoulders of Israeli decision makers.

Iran's Jews have a history dating back 2,700 years. They are one of the oldest Jewish communities in the world. Today they live either in the city of Teheran or Shiraz.

In the year 2000, thirteen Iranian Jewish Hebrew teachers were arrested for spying. After years of persecution the case was dropped.

Iranian leadership has options. They could arrest Jews as they have done in the past. They could persecute them and arrest them on trumped up charges. They could run a smear campaign to foment public hatred and attacks against the Jews of Iran. They can forbidden the practice and teaching of Judaism.

A military attack is much more than a mere tactical and strategic maneuver.

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Sunday March 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani called Israel a "barking dog" earlier today.

Larijani was explaining that "Israel would never dare attack Iran."

He said Israel is like a dog it barks and does not intend to bite. He then echoed a repeated theme that has been developing over the last week or two by Iranian leaders. He said that if Israel were to strike Iran, it, Israel, would be playing with its own destiny.

The war of rhetoric is increasing in pitch.

Iran is pushing the don't attack model suggesting that Iran's counter attack against Israel would be too devastating and too costly to warrant a first strike.

This all happens as Swift, the largest international transfer-er of funds from banks disconnected 25 of Iran's banks from its services as of Monday. This could be a huge blow to Iran's already problematic foreign currency money flow.

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Saturday March 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Ali Akhba Salehi, Iran's foreign minister was interviewed on Danish television TV-2. The Iranian minister's comments provide telling insight into the complex chess game that Iran is playing with the West.

Salehi said that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would result in the total destruction of Israel.

He said: "If Israel ever made this mistake, it would set the clock for the end of Israel. And the Israelis know this."
He continued: "Israel is such a small country it would not last even a single week in a real war. Not even one week."

This takes the "wipe off the map" comments much further. Iran's top diplomat, the man who is also the former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, meant to intimidate and frighten the West - not Israel. His comments were directed specifically at the United States in order to try to make certain that Israel does not embark on an air strike.

Israel is fully aware of Iran's potential and the risks involved in a military strike. It is the United States that is still in the throes of decision making and so it is the United States that is open to influence through this rhetoric.

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Friday March 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has a plan to save innocent victims in Syria.
His idea is to create a "safe zone."

Sarkozy proposes to designate a section of Syria, including the city Homs, an area where the Syrian army may not go and may not fly over. Sarkozy suggests that the area be large enough to sustain 5.5 million people.

No foreign troops would be needed according to this plan. The entire area would be patrolled and protected from the air. Food and medical aid would be dropped down to those in need.

US President Obama rejected the idea. Without the United States this cannot happen, no local or other air force can handle the plan without the help of the US Air Force.

The idea was rejected because the United States is not convinced that Syria would respect the space- ground and air and is uncertain as to whether the area would turn into a battleground.

More significantly, the United States does not know if the Russians would simply stand by watching what happens or if they would come to the defense of Syria. A Russian aircraft carrier has been deployed in Tartus, Syria for this very possible eventuality.

The French are disappointed but honestly, Washington made the correct decision.

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Thursday March 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish planes flew into Iraq and dropped bombs on three regions. It happened late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning. The targets were Kurdish separatist movement centers and bases.

This is an ongoing story, one that we do not see or hear much about.

The Kurds want their own state. They believe that part of that state should include sections of Turkey so to that end, the Kurds actively strike at Turkish targets. It emphasizes their point.

The Turks respond by attacking Kurdish centers. Part of the attack strategy of the Turks against the Kurds is to get at their support system in Iraq.

In Iraq the Kurds are almost totally autonomous. They live in predominately Kurdish regions, they have excellent oil resources and their province is relatively very quiet and peaceful. They are almost totally independent of Iraq - except that the Kurdish province is in the new country of Iraq.

Despite their autonomy in Iraq, the Kurds still want an independent country. Turkey disagrees.

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Wednesday March 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After four days of a constant barrage of missiles from Gaza into Israel, there is finally a lull. Israel says that they will "answer quiet with quiet."

222 rockets were shot from Gaza into Israel. 56 rockets, about 25%, were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti rocket battery system.

Israel struck Gaza 37 times. Israel acknowledges 26 Palestinian deaths, fourteen of them members of the same Islamic Jihad cell, four of them civilian Palestinians.

In a stroke of unbelievable wonderment, the Palestinians also assert that four civilian Palestinians were killed. Never have the two sides agreed on casualties.

During the four days of bombardment over a million Israelis were in range of the rockets. 200,000 school children were kept out of school.

In Israel there were 40 casualties, two, both foreign workers, sustained serious injuries. Most of the injuries are a result of broken glass, and shock.

The situation is bad. Thankfully, it isn't worse.

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Tuesday March 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia is really ticked off at the United States because of two huge policy decisions. So Saudi leadership wants to make President Obama pay at the gas pump - and higher gas prices may just be the kiss of death for Obama's re-election campaign.

The current US policy of advancing talks with Iran is seen by the Saudis as just giving the Iranians more time to enrich their uranium and develop their nuclear weapons. The Saudis also feel that the US policy to wait and watch in Syria is destructive to the region. Saudi Arabia wants to oust Assad of Syria as a message to Iran.

Their frustration with the United States is so intense that it may even drive the Saudis into a defense and intelligence alliance with Israel.

The Saudis believe that the US must stop Iran. If the US is unwilling, they will do it together with other players in the region. And that might be very upsetting to the United States.

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Monday March 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After several days of rocket fire from Gaza Benny Gantz, the Israel chief of staff, made a comment that was somewhat surprising.
Gantz said that Israel would continue to respond to the rocket fire with "force and sensitivity."

What a poor choice of words. So many expressions could have been used - but to say sensitivity?

He could have said "with force and surgical precision." He could have said "responsibly." He could have used the international league term "commensurate force" or said "proportional response."

He could have coupled the term force with "wise" or "justifiable."

But sensitive? That is not what the IDF should be when it comes to Gaza and the indiscriminate shooting of rockets into Israel.

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Sunday March 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since Friday night more than 120 rockets have been launched from Gaza into Israel.

Over 20% of those rockets have been intercepted by the Iron Dome, Israel's anti rocket battery. And more Iron Domes are being deployed in order to continue to effectively intercept rockets.

Israel is striking at the terrorists in Gaza responsible for shooting these rockets. Israel is also targeting their arms depots. But it is still nearly impossible to prevent the rocket launchings.

Some of these rockets are 3 feet long. One video now on the web shows how the rocket was propped up against a large stone and then shot at Israel.

The Palestinian Resistance Committees has given a green light to all their people to fire at Israeli at will - that directive comes in response to Israel's targeting on Friday of their leader, al Qaisi.

If there is a silver lining in all this it is that the Israelis are now smarter about what Gaza is capable of sending their way. And they now have a true test of the effectiveness of the Iron Dome should they need to use it in the event of an Iranian attack.

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Saturday March 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Israel was hit by a barrage of rocket attacks fired from Gaza.

Of the tens of rockets that were launched into southern Israel at least 7 were intercepted. 4 Israelis were hurt, 1 critically.

Earlier in the day Israel successfully struck at and hit the man known as the General Secretary - the commander of the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC), Zuhir al Qaisi. Israel asserts that striking al Qaisi was a preemptive strike which helped to avert a serious terror attack which was about to go into motion.

The barrage of rockets launched on Friday night was clearly a response to Israel's strike. The PRC military wing, the Nasar Saha a Din Brigades, made it clear that it was they who sent out an order to fire and launch rockets at Israel.

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Friday March 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Russia ambassador to the UN in Geneva came out with a very important statement about Syria yesterday.

He said that 15,000 foreign al Qaeda terrorists are in Syria fighting against Assad and his regime.

If correct, it highlights some interesting and essential points.

Few Syrians themselves are fighting against Assad. That would mean that these al Qaeda imports are trained and have an entirely different vision for Syria than the protestors.

Russia is an ardent supporter of the Assad regime. But that having been said, Russia is also trying to stop the killing and the Russians have serious resources in the region.

15,000 might be an exaggeration but half of that - 7,500, is a more realistic number.

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Thursday March 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Three diplomats from the UN body responsible for monitoring nuclear development in Iran have anonymously asserted that Iran is cleaning up an area that is probably the site of a nuclear weapons experiment.
On Wednesday satellite photos were made public and the diplomats spoke to AP who reported their finding.

The location where the clean up is taking place is called Parchan. This is one of the sites that IAEA monitors wanted to visit during their last trip to Iran and were denied entry.

The assertion is that a neutron trigger was used in an experiment.

According to everyone in the nuclear world who studies this, there is only one use for a neutron trigger - activating a nuclear weapon. Its official name is an initiator and an initiator is what is needed to trigger the fission chain reaction of a nuclear weapon.

This is not news in the nuclear discussion world. People have been discussing Iran’s neutron triggers since 2007 and believe Iran had one as early as 2008.

The good news is that the polonium is very difficult to clean up and observers should be able to see what is happening in Iran.

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Wednesday March 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now a day or so after the summit between Obama and Netanyahu. Now real critique is beginning to emerge.

The Israelis are baffled at how immature the Americans are. One of the chief concerns expressed by Obama is the rising cost of oil and the impact that will have on the gas pump.

In other words, a volatile Middle east means high priced gas at the neighborhood pump.

The Israelis were nearly speechless. How do you even respond? The United States is thinking about the comfort of their citizens, about their wallets. Israel is worried about the lives and deaths of Israeli citizens.

This little example shows just how large the chasm is between the countries, their leaders and their respective points of view.

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Tuesday March 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Both President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the AIPAC Conference. Both gave similarly themed speeches. And on Monday they met in the Oval Office.

There seems to be an no disagreement in DC, on the Hill or in the White House. There seems to be wall to wall consensus on Israel’s right to defend itself from Iran. There is even an understanding that Iran is a real threat and that the Iranian goal is to develop nuclear weapons.

So, I ask, where and why do the tension and the conflict come from?

It is all a matter of style, of honor, of pride. Both the prime minister's office and the White House feel that they were insulted by the other - not during this trip and the insults are too insignificant to even mention at this point, but never the less, those perceived insults linger and they alter the tenure of the relationship between the leader of Israel and the leader of the United States of America.

This meeting in the oval office between Netanyahu and Obama was described as somber and professional - hardly a meeting of old friends. But honestly, I prefer somber and professional to the childish and immature behavior which characterizes previous meetings between these two men who should, by all rights, have become friends.

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Monday March 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Hayat has reported that the Hamas military base in Damascus is closed.

And the large and respected Arabic paper called Asharq al Awsat quotes Turkish sources saying that Israeli drones are flying in Syria. The paper speculates about why.

The best explanation is that the Russians are using the drones and launching them from their carrier group outside the port of Tarsus. The drones are remote control and Russia has purchased a significant number of them.

The drones would be of great use to the Assad regime enabling real time intelligence on movements and communication.

The paper suggested that that Israel was aiding the Assad regime.
There is nothing further from the realm of possible than that statement.

This is a major lesson in understanding and interpreting Arabic news sources and analysis. To even think that Israel would be helping Assad or that Assad would accept assistance from Israel is theatre of the absurd. To print and publish it in twelve different Arabic countries is way beyond absurd.

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Sunday March 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The situation in Syrian situation continues.

According to reliable reports several hundred Syrians have crossed the border into Lebanon to seek refuge and safety.

And the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement today published in Xinhau news, saying: "The Syrian government and all parties concerned should immediately, fully and unconditionally cease all acts of violence, particularly violence against innocent civilians."

Yes, the Chinese voted against international action in the Security Council and, yes, now they have issued this statement.

China wants to end the violence and protect civilians, but they do not want international intervention in Syria. They want to make certain that what is happening in Libya does not happen in Syria.

And the Chinese certainly do not want to open the door for the Security Council to interfere in any internal issues - even involving the gross violations of human rights.

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Saturday March 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Friday al Arabiya TV reported that Kasam Slimani, the Iranian head of the Al Quds Brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, has just made a secret visit to Lebanon to speak with Hezbollah leaders.

The Al Quds Brigade is a highly elite section of the Revolutionary Guard. They are charged with special strikes and attacks.
According to al Arabiya the purpose of the visit was to coordinate and assess actions and reaction to an attack on Iran.

Iran probably made it known to Hezbollah that in the event of an attack by Israel they must respond by firing rockets and missiles into Israel. This would force Israel to spread its defense shield very thin in order to both protect from Lebanon on the north and Iran from the east.

Everyone, it seems, is making plans.

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Friday March 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is a diplomatic nightmare. One of the terrorists freed in the Gilad Shalit exchange deal was deported to Jordan where she now hosts a weekly TV show about prisoners and about the former prisoners who were released along with her.

Ahlam Timimi was convicted and sentenced to 16 life terms for 15 counts of murder. It was she who drove the suicide bomber to Jerusalem on August 6, 2001 who then blew up the Sbarro restaurant. 15 people were killed and 130 were wounded.

At the time Timimi was a 20 year old university student and part time journalist. She dressed herself up as a Jewish tourist to successfully shuttle the terrorist to his target. Today she is a TV star on Hamas al Quds satellite TV out of Jordan.

After her release from prison she said that she had no regrets about her role in the terror attack.

The over arching theme of the show is to attack Israel and to kidnap soldiers. One of the guests on the show was Salah Arouri who was deeply involved in the Shalit deal. Arrouri says that the only way to impact Israel is through resistance. Resistance is code for terror. He says that kidnapping soldiers helps bring the Zionists to their knees.

It remains to be seen of the Jordanian will exert their power and shut down the show. Or will they turn a blind eye and let Ahlam Timimi continue on her mission.

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Thursday March 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian judge lifted a travel ban on 7 of the 16 Americans who have been charged with numerous crimes including receiving external money to foment anti-government politics.

A charter plane waited to whisk the Americans out of Egypt and far from the grasp of anyone deciding to overturn the decision.

Included in the group of seven was Sam LaHood, son of Ray LaHood the current Secretary of Transportation in the Obama Administration.

The decision on Sunday to adjourn the trial until June and now this decision to release some of the prisoners should be taken as hopeful signs for the remaining Americans.

Unfortunately, it does not bode well for those 27 Egyptians who were employed by the American NGOs and are still being held prisoner.

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Wednesday February 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Queen Rania of Jordan recently called Asma Assad, the wife of Bashar Assad, President of Syria.

The Queen of Jordan called asked about the situation in Syria and said that she hoping the life of the wife of the president was not in jeopardy.

Asma responded by saying that "our situation is excellent and we have no concerns." Asma then said to Rania of Jordan "but we have heard worrying reports from your country and wish to make sure that you are doing ok."

Asma Assad is British born and educated and spent time at Kings College. Before marrying Assad she worked for the Deutsche Bank and for JP Morgan.

Rania was born in Palestine, in the city of Tulkarm. She was educated at the New English school in Kuwait and the American University in Cairo. Before her marriage she worked for Citibank and for Apple.

The phone conversation was reported by the British Arabic Daily Al Quds and the source was a Jordanian contact.

This conversation highlights some important points. A stoic attitude and stiff upper lip are part of the role female leadership assumes in this part of the world. And Asma has not left the country and has no plans to do so - which means she really does feel secure in Syria.

Most telling of all is that Asma Assad does not feel the need to seek refuge next door - and actually voices her concern over the volatile situation in Jordan and feels comfortable enough to speak of her concerns for the well being of the Jordanian queen.

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Tuesday February 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Oil experts announced yesterday that the year 2012 will see a 33% drop in Iranian crude oil sales.

In January the European Union decided that as of July they will totally cut their Iranian crude imports.

In addition China, India and Japan who together amount to about 45% of Iran's crude sales, are agreeing to each cut their imports by 10%.
The White House is elated as are those leaders from Western Europe who have been pushing the boycott.

What is missing from the equation is that there are other countries increasing their oil imports from Iran. And countries like China and India often change their minds and behaviors when it comes to Iranian oil. Earlier in February China dropped their imports of Iranian crude - and barrel per barrel India picked up the slack.

Think of it as a see saw, except that this is not child's play.

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Monday February 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian court has adjourned the trial of the 43 arrested NGO workers including at least 16 Americans, one of whom is the son of the current US Secretary of Transportation, until April.

This is a very positive move.

This means that Egypt is not ready to take these people to court and that there is a chance that the entire case will be dropped.

According to the charges these NGOs and their employees received illegal funding from outside of Egypt. They are also charged with engaging in political activity outside the purview of their social and community work. And finally, they are charged with not obtaining proper permission papers and licenses for their work.

It is still too early to tell, but the situation is looking good. If Egypt wants, they can still turn this into a show trial. If they don't want a show trial, they can just make it all go away.

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Sunday February 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

This morning 3 Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel.

The rockets landed in the Ashkelon beach region. Luckily, no one was hurt.

Incidents of this kind are not covered in the world press, they are hardly even covered in the local, domestic, Israeli press. Deaths and injuries are covered, not near misses. And yet, 3 rockets coming over a border with the intention of killing and terrifying as many people as possible is more than a casual incident.

These are acts of war and require retaliation. And the Israeli Air Force struck back attacking 2 sites in Gaza.

But something is wrong with the picture.

The US and the world are pushing Israel to make concessions and compromises and the Palestinians are creating unity between Hamas and the PA. And all the while Hamas keeps shooting rockets into Israel.

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Saturday February 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's French Le Figaro had a very important piece quoting a European defense expert who says that Jordan will be stationing 4 Patriot anti-missile batteries on the border with Syria near to Israel.

The Patriots were purchased from Germany.

The missiles are an obvious defense against Syria. They are also very good for Israel. Any Syrian aircraft attempting to enter Jordan in order to cross into Israel will be locked on and shot.

Countries in the region are starting to see Syria as a real threat to regional stability. That means that they must defend themselves from Syria. It also means that Israel be safer because of it. The irony is not lost.For eleven months the border between Syria and Jordan has been quiet and simple to traverse. That was then, now, everything has changed.

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Friday February 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Israel leaked some very highly secret information.

Israel has always closely guarded the nature of their submarine fleet. And yet, it was reported in a German newspaper and then in the Israeli press, that a new secret weapon has been added to the Israeli super sub fleet.

It is called Tanin which is Hebrew for alligator. It is a new Dolphin class German sub with Israeli modifications. Israel is scheduled to receive three of these subs over the next three years.

These subs are supposed to be totally cloaked - they have no acoustic signature and cannot be traced or found. They can spend long periods of time underwater. And they have diesel and hydrogen conversion systems that allow the subs to produce their own fuel.

The Tanin is supposed to be able to launch nuclear warheads from anywhere.

Israel will start test deploying their new super sub very soon.

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Thursday February 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leader Halad Mashaal met with Palestinian Authority President Abbas in Cairo on Wednesday. They met to iron out problems with the unity agreements they had created a few weeks ago.

After the meeting Hamas issued a formal statement saying, "the movement (Hamas) is devoted to ending the division and uniting on the basis of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the brave resistance."

Two things need to be clear. Number one is that Hamas leadership in Gaza is not in favor of this agreement. They will need to be convinced and cajoled into accepting it. Number two is that the expression "the brave resistance" means "terror."

Whenever you see the word "resistance" in Arabic, in this context, it means "armed attacks against Israelis and Jews." Always. With no exceptions.

This is not Mahatma Gandhi of the Middle East. This is Hamas.

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Wednesday February 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

China and India have announced that they will be cutting their crude oil imports from Iran by 10%.

Together China and India total 35%- 45% of Iran's oil export so a reduction of 10% each would be a significant drop in oil revenues. A reduction of that size could really hurt Iran.

But ... Iran exports between 2.1 - 2.14 million barrels of oil per day, depending on the seasonal demand.

Earlier in February China reduced their Iranian oil imports and India grabbed the excess to meet the exact amount of China's reduction. Meanwhile, South Africa doubled its oil imports from Iran to 100,000 barrels per day.

This all means that even as pressure to squeeze Iran increases in the West, Iranian oil exports remain largely unchanged. Iran finds other willing importers.

The only chance of effectively pressuring Iran is to get China and India to follow through and reduce their oil imports by even more than the 10% they have announced. The way to truly hurt Iran is to have China and India break, or at least drastically reduce their ties with Iran.

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Tuesday February 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday an Iranian destroyer and supply ship passed through the Suez Canal.

As predicted, those ships are now docked in Syria. A destroyer in that position can shoot at almost any rebel stronghold.

More importantly, those two ships working together have spectacular computer and satellite resources and the ability to listen in on and sabotage communications.

Meanwhile, sources in Egypt and from Syrian rebel groups announced that their communications systems have been disrupted. They said they are no longer able to communicate with one another freely.

According to a report in the newspaper Asharq al Awsat, a daily Arabic paper out of London, an Egyptian security source commented that Syrian army and intelligence is no longer able to totally monitor the communication of the rebels.

Now with the help of the Iranian ships, they can both listen and disrupt the systems of communication.

Disrupting communications is a very important strategy. Syrian powers are not interested in learning about the plans of the opposition. They are interested in disabling the opposition and in weakening them.

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Monday February 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has set up a refugee camp along the Syrian border in anticipation of the masses of people expected to flee Syria as the violence against them increases.

Israel is also prepared for a potential onslaught of Syrian refugees.

It is clear that the refugees will be divided into two groups. The first group will be composed of those Syrians who were caught in the fray and the fighting and are running away to save their families.

The second group will be composed of Assad cronies. If the tide changes, members of the oppressive regime may very well need to run from the revolution in order to save their own lives.

Israel is prepared for that eventuality, too. Why Israel? Why not Syria, Jordan or other Arab countries? Because these refugees would most certainly be killed if they were to flee to Syria, Jordan or anywhere else in the Arab world.

The irony of it all is that the very people who have fought Israel and who refuse to accept Israel, realize that their only refuge is the Jewish State of Israel.

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Sunday February 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt announced the trial date for the 43 NGO pro-democracy workers they have under arrest. The date is Sunday, February 26.
19 of those arrested are US citizens, charged with being funded by outside money to agitate and interfere in Egyptian politics. One of those arrested and charged is Sam LaHood, the son of US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.

LaHood is Egypt Director of the International Republican Institute. Along with others NGOs like Freedom House, their mandate is to spend time teaching about democracy.

The White House and Congress are livid. President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton have all raised the issue - and the Egyptians refuse to budge.

The trial will go forward. It will be a show trial. Egypt wants to show the world that current leadership is not bending to the United States and the West.

This trial is an excuse to prove a point of national pride. Egyptian pride will cause many innocent people to suffer.

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Saturday February 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian naval destroyer and a supply ship sailed through the Suez Canal on Thursday.

The Iranians are probably on their way to Syria. Syria and Iran are united in a clear link against the Western world.

Egyptian military leadership gave permission to the Iranians to pass through the canal. Last year at this very time a set of naval vessels also passed through Suez. They went up the Mediterranean coast and then returned through the Canal and went back home.
Israel watched very carefully as these ships passed.

I have no doubt that this destroyer is on its way to lend support to Syria.

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Friday February 17, 2012

I;ve Been Thinking:

Egypt is responding in very interesting ways to the threat by the United States to pull $1.3 billion in aid if the 19 NGO pro-democratic activists they have taken prisoner are not freed.

First: they said that they will be forced to reconsider their peace treaty with Israel if the aid is not delivered.

Second: the head of a major Islamic institution of Salafists, a group that garnered about 30% of the parliament vote, offered an interesting suggestion. He said that every Egyptian should donate $1.66 to help offset the loss of the aid.

The math is just funny. There are approximately 81 million people in Egypt so, if everyone gave $1.66 to the cause the total amount would be about $125 million which is hardly $1.3 billion.

The sad reality is that the average GDP annual income in Egypt is $2892. I did not forget to add the zeroes, that is their average income.

Aid to Egypt has fluctuated over the past decade going from as high as $2.075 billion to as low as $1.5 billion.

Egypt is making all the wrong decisions and they must suffer the consequences. If the United States pulls their aid they lose their leverage. But even with the generous offer of $1.3 billion, it does not appear as if the US has much leverage over Egypt, anyway.

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Thursday February 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera reported today that Hamas politburo chief Halad Mashaal avoided a meeting with Syrian president Bashar Assad.

This is the second time in the past two weeks that Mashaal has skirted a meeting with Assad.

Despite the fact that for years Assad protected and sponsored Hamas, Mashaal does not want to now be seen as supporting Assad.

Iran is livid and so is Assad. Iran believes that given all the money they have dumped into Hamas they should at least be loyal to Assad. But no.

Hamas has had to relocate their headquarters and they are no longer in Damascus. Now Hamas has a major office, just opened in Qatar, and a smaller one in Amman, Jordan.

Iran thinks that Mashaal and Hamas have shown their true colors.
Hamas representatives have visited Iran several times over the past few weeks to plead the Palestinian cause - but their words have fallen on deaf ears.

That brings us back to Mashaal missing a meeting with Assad. Mashaal
need to steer clear of Assad, but his benefactors want him close. Mashaal is in a very difficult position.

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Wednesday February 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The White House presented its budget. Some things will knock your socks off.

The White House decided to go ahead and give $1.3 billion dollars to Egypt. The allocation is billed as reward for progressing down the path of democracy and having successful elections. The problem is that the Egyptians elected non-democratic parties. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri party combined took over 70% of the parliament. And by the way, the Nouri party makes the Brotherhood look tame and liberal.

There's more. Egypt is still included in the White House budget despite having arresting 43 NGO workers. 19 are Americans and one is the son of the Secretary of Transportation.

It continues. $800,000 million is slated to go towards furthering the Arab Spring, but it is unclear where and what that means.

Meanwhile, Israel will get $3.1 billion, but their short range missile program was cut.

The US is cutting their only friend and the only democratic state in the region and is dumping $1.3 billion on an unknown entity (the New Egypt) that has elected Muslim extremists.

To round out allocation for the Middle East: Iraq is getting $11.8 Afghanistan $4.6 and Pakistan $2.4 billion. Jordan is only getting $300 million.

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Tuesday February 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There was a terrorist attack in New Delhi, India yesterday that targeted Israeli embassy personnel. Two Israelis were injured when their minivan left the embassy en route to pick up school children.

At the very same moment in Tbilisi, Georgia a bomb was discovered in the car of an Israeli embassy employee. The bomb was disarmed and no one was hurt.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed Iran and Hezbollah for these attacks and for other recent attempted attacks against Israeli diplomats in Azerbaijan and Thailand.

Iran lashed back. Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehmanparast said: "The Zionist regime has a high record of criminal actions against humanity and it is the first suspect of any terrorist operation in the world." "Tehran condemns terrorism in the strongest terms as Iran has been a victim of terrorism."

Understanding Iran's response is critical in understanding Iran's character.

Iran wants to condemn terror. Iran wants to appear above it all. Iran wants it to appear as if they, too, are victims of terror.

Most of all, and this is as popular a theme for Iran as it is bewildering for us - Iran wants it to be known that Israel is a terror sponsor. Iran is now claiming that Israel attacked Israelis - in order to make Iran look bad.

The Iranians are building a foundation of conspiracy. It is the same theme with a few variations that Iran circulated after 9-11.

This logic is very popular in the Muslim world.

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Monday February 13, 2012

I've Been thinking:

The Iranian foreign minister summoned the ambassador from Azerbaijan yesterday.

The minister told the ambassador to stop helping the Mossad.

The meeting was precipitated by a news story that appeared in the Sunday Times of London saying that the epicenter of intelligence gathering against Iran is Baku, Azerbaijan.

Based on that story, Iran is castigating their neighbor.

This is not a new charge. The Islamic world has repeatedly condemned Azerbaijan for their openness to the West and their friendly tone towards Israel. After a recent terror attack in Azerbaijan those who claimed responsibility said the attack was a response to the unusually good relations Azerbaijan has with Israel.

Azerbaijan has figured out how to modernize their county and how to approach and befriend the West. The question now is whether the Islamist movement will deter them from moving any closer.

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Sunday February 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Mehr News Agency, a mouthpiece of the government even though it is often referred to as semi-official, announced on Saturday that 30 million Iranians are without internet.

They said the downage hit on Thursday.

The report said that the telephone communication ministry which is responsible for the internet - had nothing to do with the failure. I believe them.

Iran has been known to down sites and stop usage of foreign web access like facebook. But they admit doing it. It last happened during the elections when the government wanted to limit the ability of the opposition parties and Iranian youth to organize and communicate. The best way for them to accomplish their goals was to shut down the internet.

This could be a worm, or a virus, or an outside source. Whatever it is - it is taking a long time to isolate and fix. Imagine four days without internet.

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Saturday February 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just added two more submarines to their Ghadari sub fleet. The name Ghadari is taken from Ghadar Khumm, a holy site for Shiite Islam.

The two new subs bring the total of light subs to, best guess estimate since the Iranians are not publishing this information, about twelve.

These are all domestically produced mini submarines. They do not have long lasting underwater staying power. They are designed specifically for use in the Straits of Hormuz and accordingly, are able to navigate the very shallow waters on the sides of the Straits.

These subs are modeled on the North Korean sub the Sang-O and the Italian mini sub the Littoral. The technology is highly sophisticated.

The Iranians also have three much larger German that are pretty much ineffective in the Straits.

Bottom line on these subs: Iran is gearing up for conflict in the Straits.

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Friday February 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas in the Gaza strip has rejected the unity agreement that was brokered by Khaled Mashaal and Mahmoud Abbas for their exiled Politburo and the Palestinian Authority.

The agreement sets up an interim government in which Abbas is both the president and the prime minister. The objective is to move to new elections.

Hamas' parliamentarians, including Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh, say that the agreement does not take into account two very important items.

The first item is that Hamas won the election on January 25, 2006 and received the plurality of the votes for parliament. And yet, they have never been able to govern.

The second is that that according to the Palestinian constitution the position of president and prime minister must be held by two different people. The reason for this law was to make certain that there would broad based accountability and that no single power controlled the reigns of leadership.

I am in no way suggesting that Hamas is a paragon of democratic values, but they do have two very serious points here.

What is the reason for an election if you cast aside the results?

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Thursday February 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt that innocent people are being slaughtered in Syria.
And there are people who want to oust Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Most of those slaughtered have been, and will continue to be, those who do not support Assad or who are working to oust Assad.

The foreign minister of Russia came to Syria to dress him down Assad and make him promise to stop the killings of innocents. And that same day more innocent people were killed in the city of Homs.

Against that back drop there are huge rallies in Damascus in support of Assad.

This is a tale of two different Syrias.
One Syria feels oppressed and wants to revolt. The other Syria is part of the establishment and wants things to stay the same with only cosmetic changes.

Syria is a very small country. In a country of about 23 million people, only 3 metropolitan areas have over a million residents - Aleppo with more than 2 million, Damascus with 1.7 million and Homs with 1.2 million.

Aleppo has been quiet during the entire revolt and is thought to be with the leadership. Damascus has had some riots and excitement but it has been pretty quiet and this city, too, is thought to side with the leadership. Homs has been a hotbed of anti-Assad activity as has been the city of Hama with its 790,000 residents.

Looking around Syria, it does not appear that everyone is on the "oust Assad" train.

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Tuesday February 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Turkish foreign ministry has summoned the Swiss ambassador. The Turks want an explanation.

The Swiss have launched an investigation into the Turkish EU Minister suggesting that he may have violated international protocols by denying the Armenian genocide.

The Turks are livid.

They are saying such an investigation is unacceptable and they will tell the Swiss ambassador just that. Turkey will demand an explanation as to why this investigation is happening.

The Turks have already had a diplomatic skirmish with France over this very same issue. There is a big problem here, bigger than diplomacy, it is a nationalist issue. It is against European Union law to deny the genocide - but part and parcel of Turkish identity is to deny the Armenian catastrophe.

Right now, Turkish leadership is extremely volatile. They are overreacting to almost every international issue, not looking for solutions or detante. This is one blatant indication of the frayed nerves and extreme reactions of Turkish leadership.

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Monday February 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

One may have thought that things could not get any worse when it came to Egypt and their new incarnation.

Now hear this: The new military leadership in Egypt has decided to put 19 Americans plus 24 other employees of NGO's on trial. They are charged with using foreign funds to foment political unrest.
These 43 people work for pro-democratic organizations, for organizations that helped oust Mubarak.

At first Egypt said that these workers could not travel, now they will stand trial. The military is deeply troubled that these organizations teach about accountability and responsibility, preach equality and equal protection and want justice.

These are all red flags and dangerous terms in the new Egypt.

The United States has threatened to pull monetary aid.

At this point the US must do something - intervene or pull not some but all aid to Egypt. If the United States does not act decisively, harshly and quickly, there will be no chance of saving these 43 people.

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Sunday February 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Palestinians Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the head of Hamas, Khalad Mashaal, met on Sunday in Doha the capital of Qatar.

They met to talk about creating an independent interim government which would enable and organize presidential and parliamentary elections.

The PA and Hamas have been talking about unity and about elections for some significant time now, but have not yet progressed any further than saying that this is what we want.

This time also there is very little chance of success. Hamas think that they have already been elected - and have not yet served. The PA does not want to cede any power.

Creating a government to enable an election is a potential black hole. Once an interim government is in place there is no guarantee that elections will follow. And even if there are elections there are no guarantees they will be honest or that the results will be honored.

History has taught us that there is almost no chance of uniting the PA and Hamas in order to bring about united Palestinian elections.

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Saturday February 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

How naive and how gullible are we?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrapped up its meeting in Iran and then fed us all a great line. The meetings, they said, were positive - the Iranians are interested in talks and in inspections and there is a second round scheduled for later in February.

True, but only a partial story. The inspectors asked to see the facility in Parchin and the Iranians did not permit their entry.

Here is where it gets very tricky. The Iranians did not use the word "no" they just sidestepped the question. End result is that the IAEA inspectors were not permitted to inspect Parchin because the Iranians did not allow it, but yes, the Iranians did not say no to the IAEA.

Here is where it becomes troubling. Because the Iranians did not say no, the meetings and talks were considered a success in the eyes of the West and of the IAEA.

This is hardly a success - it is playing right into the hands of the very capable Iranians. It might come as a surprise to Westerners, but in many cultures - including Persian culture, it is impolite to say "no" and there are literally numerous ways of saying no without saying no.

Once again, the Iranians have succeeded in doing things their way.

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Friday February 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians was convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison yesterday for the crime of insulting Islam.

This, not surprisingly, happened in the New Egypt.

Adel Imam, a truly iconic character in the Arabic world, has been an entertainment fixture for years. His shtick is to poke fun at politicians and politics. His humor is a test of the prevailing winds. At times, he went too far.

The sentence was handed down as a result of a 2001 movie called Morgan Ahmed Morgan. The film tells the story of a corrupt businessman who tries to buy a university diploma. The Egyptian sentencing judge said that Imam depicted Islamic symbols with disrespect and that he disrespectfully depicted a group of men dressed in Islamic garb. Imam went too far for the sensibilities of New Egyptian leadership.

Imam's most popular role was in a 1998 movie called Al Zaeem in which he played an Arab dictator. In 2008 he was found guilty of defaming lawyers, but that decision was overruled.

Adel Imam was tried in absentia. It was said that he was in Egypt recently to film a TV series but no one knows his current whereabouts.

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians has fallen out of favor by the New Egypt. During the rebellion Adel Imam defended Mubarak.

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Thursday February 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Germany upgraded the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA had been a "representation" and now they are a "mission." A mission means that the top representative to the host country is a ambassador that they may fly their flag.

This is a serious increase in diplomatic clout. Germany follows France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland in upgrading the PA.

Israel responded to the diplomatic upgrade by saying that the PA is getting the wrong message. Israel is saying that the Palestinian Authority is being rewarded with diplomatic upgrades for walking away from the negotiation table.

Israel is trying to suggest that the opposite should have taken place. Dangle the diplomatic upgrade as a reward in order to influence the PA to act diplomatically - don't just give that diplomatic perk away.

There is something fundamentally flawed in this picture. Diplomatic upgrades are huge and they just don't slip back down in status, they should be achieved as the result of serious transitions, not wishful thinking and vacuous promises.

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Wednesday February 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing yesterday. Syria and Iran were on the agenda.

David Petraeus, head of the CIA, explained to the senators that Israel and the United States see the threat of Iran differently.

From his testimony it became clear that Tamir Pardo, chief of Israel's Mossad, had been in Washington DC on Thursday.
This little bit of information made my jaw drop. The travel plans of the Mossad head are never supposed to be common knowledge.

The Committee also heard that there seems to be no real compromise position in Syria and that Iran sees the Assad regime as an asset. The senators were told that the loss of Syria as an Iranian asset would be a great loss to the Iranians.

What the United States does not seem to understand is that:
#1: Assad will not leave on his own
#2: the locals do not have the wherewithal to oust Assad.

They people of Syria need help, our help, help from the West. Iran is helping Assad stay in power.

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Tuesday January 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between the United States and Israel about how to respond to Iran continue to rise. They have a clear difference of approach on how to handle the situation.

Israel has no doubt that Iran is on the verge of nuclear independence which would, in turn, enable the Iranians to provide enough refined uranium to make nuclear warheads. Israel says that the "window" is 5 months to 18 months. Action must take place before that window closes.

The United States sees the situation very differently. The US wants to continue to monitor and not act. It is far less of a threat for the US and the clock is not ticking nearly as loud as it is for Israel.

But both the US and Israel - and add to that even Iran, know that Israel does not have a knockout punch that would eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear threat. Rather, Israel has a knockdown punch which will delay progress. That means that the US will also have to engage Iran if they want to do the job right.

Israel has another option. They can attack the sites of Iran's national infrastructure - the military headquarters, the intelligence centers, the communication centers, the command and control centers.

That may be the best backup plan Israel can develop.

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Monday January 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has begun to play hard ball. Iran wants to frighten and to threaten the West.

Yesterday Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassami announced that Iran will soon stop exporting oil to certain Western European countries.

This announcement came at the same time that the vote in the Iranian parliament over a bill to cease exporting oil to Western European countries was postponed.

Qassami also said that he anticipates that oil will soon reach between $120 - $150 a barrel.

These statements and actions are all meant to strike fear into the hearts of Western decision makers.

Increasing the cost of oil to $150 a barrel will be a crushing blow to certain economies - especially Western European economies. These countries are dependent on oil - and they had already decided that as of June 31 they will not renew any new Iranian oil contracts.

That decision is at the root of Iran's decision to shoot back with statements and moves aimed at hurting Western Europe. Iran rightly believes that Europe cannot sustain itself without reasonably priced oil.

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Sunday January 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has a real problem. They have, to use a colloquialism, ticked off their sugar daddy.

And so, next week Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will be on his way to Iran to beg for money and support. Haniyeh just returned from his very first trip outside of Gaza, now he will be travelling again.

Iran is so angry at Hamas that under normal circumstances it would be doubtful that they would grant an extension on their lease - for life and for money.

What did Hamas do wrong? Hamas did not support Assad. Iran asked Hamas to lend support and instead Hamas spoke out against Assad. Now Hamas no longer has an interim home in Syria.

As if the situation was not grim enough, a group of Shiites were attacked a few weeks ago in Gaza. That was the nail in the coffin for Hamas.

Iran is not going to be easily swayed. The only thing going for Hamas is that Iran needs proxies and they need friends - now more than ever. If they beg hard enough, Hamas might just be able to bring Iran around, at least for the short term.

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Saturday January 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.

But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.

I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.

The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.

The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.

It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.

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Friday January 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.

He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.

"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."

Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.

Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.

If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.

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Thursday January 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.

The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.

The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.

The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.

Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.

There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.

The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.

They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.

It just makes no sense.

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Wednesday January 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.

These killings in Hama are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.

The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.

Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.

Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.

It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.

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Tuesday January 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.

According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.

There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.

It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.

The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.

All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.

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Monday January 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.

This is good news for the Syrians.

However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.

The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.

This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.

I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.

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Sunday January 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.

A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.

Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.

Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.

In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.

These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.

To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.

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Saturday January 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.

Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.

This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.

At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.

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Friday January 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Shiites were brutally beaten in Gaza by Sunni Hamas forces this past Friday.

Traditionally, Shia has not had a presence in Gaza but over the past few months significant numbers of young people have converted to Shia.

Iran is a predominately Shiite country. Iran has been sponsoring programs and activities in Gaza. Iran has also been directly sponsoring Hamas.

Iran has already begun to reduce their contribution to Hamas and these brutal assaults might force them to further reduce it.

Initially, Iran reduced their donations because Hamas refuse to support Assad in Syria and Iran is very pro-Assad.

With violence breaking out between Shiites and Sunnis in Gaza it is highly unlikely that there will be much more money flowing off the Iranian gravy train towards Hamas and Gaza.

That's a mixed blessing.

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Thursday January 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Cyber terror has taken over the headlines in Israel this past week.

What most people don't realize, however, is that, real terror has reared its head and that story has gone largely uncovered.

Yesterday a rocket was shot from northern Gaza into Israel. Thankfully, no one was injured by the attack.

As the rocket approached, an alarm was sounded - it is called "Color Red." People had 15 seconds to find safety or get into the bomb shelters. The rocket landed in the beach area in southern Ashkelon.

There is a significant problem here. These rockets are launched with the specific purpose of terrorizing those Israeli residents who live within range. They have no real direction and no real targeting mechanism. They are shot, they fly and they land.

The rockets are launched less as a tool of destruction and more as a tool of terror and intimidation. It is the fear factor that is more important to those launching the rockets than the actual harm that may be done to people or property.

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Wednesday January 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now officially a cyber battle. Hackers against hackers.
The anti-Israeli hackers hit the Tel Aviv stock exchange yesterday as well as the website of the Israeli airline ELAL.

They also attacked Azerbaijan state sites. The hackers placed messages and images saying that the Azerbaijanians were traitors.
OxOmar, the self proclaimed Saudi hacker, joined forces with Nightmare, a hacking group that describes itself as pro-Palestinians.

These hackers want to cause Israel pain.

Now Israel must strike back. The point is not just to defend itself but actually to strike back because the reality is that given enough power and time and protection anyone can hack into anywhere.

To stop this hacking Israel must create a disincentive to breaking into their systems. They must ruin those who launched the attacks - not just destroy their current location but publicly out them and humiliate them.

Hackers need their privacy and hackers need to remain anonymous. To deny that is to destroy a hacker. It is the only way.
This is the only way.

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Tuesday January 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week's assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan continues to generate international headlines.

Yesterday the Iranian speaker of the parliament was quoted in the Iranian news as saying that several people responsible for the assassination of the Nitanz nuclear scientist, the man who headed a major division of the nuclear plant, have been arrested.

Now a British paper has released important details on the attack that had not been made public before. According to the paper the assassination took place around the corner from the safest place in Teheran - the intelligence agency headquarters, which happens to be one of Ahmadinejad's pet agencies.

The British paper also reports that just prior to the assassination there was a flurry of police action and the police were all over the area - as if they had intel about an impending attack. And yet, with apparent ease, a motorcycle with two people on it simple attached a bomb and magnet to the scientist's car and sped away undetected.

It is highly unlikely that any of the people who have been arrested have anything to do with the attack or that they can lead back to any agency who helped in the attack.

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Monday January 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A senior adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday.

A reliable Iranian news website called Mashregh News reported that Ali Akbar Javanfekr, press adviser to the president, was sentenced to prison for insulting the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei .

Javanfekr will be imprisoned for one year and may not engage in any media activity for 5 years after his release.

This case is very illustrative of the nature and politics of Iran.

There should be no doubt that the Ayatollah is the Supreme Leader and everyone - even the president, must always remember that fact. Supreme Leader is one of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's official titles.

Iranian politics requires a sense of humility and no one, no one at all, is free to criticize anything or say whatever one desires.

Most importantly, this case clearly reiterates the rule of the land -whoever serves, does so by the grace of and with the blessings of the Supreme Leader. There is no other way.

He who forgets any of those truths will land in prison - or worse.

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January 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The United States, especially the White House, has spent considerable time over these past few days trying to convince Israel not to strike Iran.

The US is unclear as to whether their message will be heeded, and that is very frustrating. But honestly, that is part of the Israeli defense strategy.

Allies and enemies are not supposed to be able to predict Israel's actions, especially the timetable for those actions.

There are several reasons why Israel is being ambiguous with the United States about their Iranian attack strategy. The most critical is that Israel is not certain that the US policy of sanctions and military buildup will make Iran back down. Now that another US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf area the US is saying that they have the situation under control, but Israel doesn't necessarily buy that.

Israel does not believe that, when the time comes, the United States will make the right call. So Israel is taking matters into their own hands and planning their own attack.

That frightens the United States - they worry that Israel is operating on a hair trigger.

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Saturday January 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted in the NYTIMES as saying that the United States is using back channels to tell Iran that closing the Straits of Hormuz is crossing a red line.

The message sounded extremely strong and unambiguous.
Until we heard the context.

The message said that there are two red lines that the United States will not permit Iran to cross. The first was closing the Straits of Hormuz. The second was advancing nuclear technology.
What began as an absolutely clear message ended as one of absolute ambiguity.

Iran knows full well that the US is unclear about the nuclear issue and that the United States has done nothing to aggressively curb their nuclear development other than demanding IAEA inspections.

Odds are the Iranians will recognize the US sensitivity to Hormuz and heed the warning. But they will not focus at all on the nuclear warning.

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Friday January 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday a Russian ship carrying 60 tons of weapons travelling to Syria was stopped and taken to Cyprus.

While in Cyprus the ship changed its itinerary and listed its new destination as Turkey. The Russian ship was released. It then turned off its GPS locater. The ship was found docked at the Syrian port of Tartus.

The ship was originally stopped because of the embargo on delivering arms to Syria. The way around was to simply change the intended destination and turn off the GPS.

Is beating the embargo that easy? Yes it is.

The question we must now ask is this: Will there be a price to pay for violating the embargo. Russia will claim that it was a private ship owned by a private company with no link to the government of Russia. That is what they will claim.

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Thursday January 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Another Iranian scientist has been killed by a bomb. The car bomb that killed this scientist is very similar to several other bombs that have been used to kill other Iranian scientists.

At first glance it makes no sense.

This victim was a professor of oil technology. Upon closer investigation it becomes clear that he was no ordinary scientist, he was the head of a division at Nitanz, the Iranian nuclear lab.

Iranian leadership is pointing the finger at Israel. The web is hopping with theories.

The wise-est guess is that the Israelis give assistance to a local group in order to kill the target. The bombs have the rudiments to be effective, but in almost each case, the bombs have been packed with too much explosive and the explosion turns – both literally and figuratively - into overkill.

Right now all we have is speculation.

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Wednesday January 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A closed door report was presented to the UN Security Council yesterday. The report said that 400 people have been killed in Syria since the Arab League monitors arrived several days ago.

US Ambassador Susan Rice correctly noted that the rate of deaths is significantly higher since the Arab monitors are on the scene.

Of course the Security Council attempted to censure Syria but that was stopped by China and Russia.

Why has the killing increased since the observers came to Syria? One reason is that the resistance has struck back heavily at the establishment and military and many civilian were hurt in the bombings.

One direct results of the presence of Arab monitors in Syria is that the resistance has been emboldened to take risks by attacking Syrian targets. The hope is that the established regime will not strike back as hard while observers are there.

It is unfortunate, but this scenario will cause more deaths.
Assad will continue to strike and strike even harder after he is attacked and he will claim that the resisters are terrorists who blow up civilians. Technically, he is not totally off base.

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Tuesday January 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is on a four nation South American trip. First stop - Venezuela.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad had a colorful and humorous meeting and then press conference. The butt of their jokes was the Western World.
Chavez said: "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out."

"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."

The two laughed and hugged.

Ahmadinejad is there to shore up support. He knows that sanctions are going to heighten and that he will need Chavez and his support. Part of what binds these men together is their resentment towards the West.

Iran and Venezuela must create a scenario in which they are unfairly victimized by the United States. That, in turn, will set the stage for the conspiracy and the persecution themes that run through their presentations.

This is how they gain and maintain support internally and how they build alliances.

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Monday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a huge internal rift erupted between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

Three senior Palestinian leaders were travelling to Gaza and they were refused entry by Hamas.

The event led to shouting and one of the senior PA officials, Sakher Bseisso, shouted prolonged curses using the name of the prophet.

This did not help their case.

A Hamas spokesman said that the PA had made their choice - and that the PA seemed to be prioritizing choosing the US and Israel over Palestinian unity and their agreement.

In response Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement that he is now revaluating the entire unity agreement between Hamas and the PA which stipulated that they were to share power and hold national elections on May 4.

The Palestinians cannot unite. Each side has too much at stake.

This is just one simple example. Hamas has agreed to become a member of the PLO and submit to Fatah leadership, but that just will not happen.

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Sunday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We have heard about the recent military maneuvers conducted by Iran - when they shot surface to air missiles and other weapons.

Iran wanted us to hear about these military maneuvers. It is all part of an orchestrated move to exercise and flex their muscles making sure that the United States knows that the Iranians are capable of defending themselves. For internal consumption, these maneuvers were an important symbol of Iranian pride, telling the Iranians and their military that they have the weapons to repel any US aggression.

But even more interesting than their PR agendas is the military message the Iranians are also sending. These military exercises took place on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.

And then today another set of maneuvers took place not 40 miles from Afghanistan. This is Iran's way of sending a very strong message to those on the Afghani side of the border. The military message to the tribes was --- do not cross without permission.

Iran is in control of its border. Iran is totally out of control. That is not a contradiction, it is the Iranian way.

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Saturday January 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is returning their ambassador to Paris. He will be back in the embassy as of first thing Monday morning.

Last month Turkey withdrew the ambassador after the French parliament began debating a law to make it illegal to deny the genocide of the Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans in 1915. A fine of 45,000 Euros is part of the proposal.

This entire exchange shows how immature Turkey has become in the world of international diplomacy.

In the first 10 months of 2011,Turkish bi-national trade equaled $14 billion. France is Turkey's fifth largest export market and its 6th largest import source.

Pulling the ambassador was, simply put, a major mistake. Recalling their ambassador achieved nothing diplomatically and sent no message to France and taught the French absolutely nothing.

All it did was showcase Turkish leadership as immature and vindictive.

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Friday January 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the most bloody day in Iraq since the United States officially pulled out in December.

A series of coordinated bombings rocked Iraq. At least 72 Shiites were killed and many more were injured.

On one side of the country, pilgrims on their way to the Shiite holy city of Karabla were attacked by a suicide bomber. Others were killed and injured as roadside bombs exploded. One unexploded bomb was found. All the targets were Shiite pilgrims.

At the very same time, in the northern part of Baghdad, in the almost exclusively Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyeh, another series of explosions rocked the neighborhood.

These attacks are picture perfect examples of al Qaeda attacks against Shiites.

The internal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to foment. Al Qaeda wants to take advantage of this conflict and will continue to pound away at Shiite targets in Iraq.

To people who support al Qaeda, the Shiites represent heretics and they must be killed.

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Wednesday January 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's monetary currency, the Riyal, has plummeted 12% since Sunday.

On Saturday President Obama signed new sanctions against Iranian banks. Many Western observers are saying that free fall is due to those sanctions. Of course, the Iranians disagree.

The value of the Iranian Riyal, like other world currencies, is evaluated based on purchase power. If that power weakens the value of the currency falls.

There are several factors that make up that value. One of the factors is psychological. If people feel that there is a strong economy and stable government, the currency value grows. But if the economy is weakened or if there are attacks against the country's infrastructure, the currency's value drops.

The US boycott affects not only Iranian banks, it also effects anyone doing business with Iranian banks.

Bottom line: the Riyal only fell 12% - I am certain that those advising the president were hoping for a 25% fall in value.

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Tuesday January 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of anonymous Saudi computer hackers claim that they have hacked Israeli credit cards and posted 400,000 of them on line. They say that the personal information of 400,000 Israelis through their credit cards, including expiration dates, are now public.

The hackers hope to create mass hysteria in Israel and have 400,000 people storm their bank's headquarters.

Upon closer investigation, a student of math and computers at the well respected Israeli university called Technion said the hacker's claim is mostly bogus.

Ofer Schwartz says that the hack was really only of 18,000 cards and that the same details were repeated over and over to come to 400,000 entries.

This entire story raises an important issue about credibility and hackers reports. Very often in the hacker world stories are embellished and hackers hyperbolize. The story becomes bigger in order to make a bigger impact. But even in the hacker world there are people who try to set the record straight and keep people honest.
18,000 is a bad hack and should never have happened. But it is not 400,000.

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Monday January 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Rick Santorum announced that unless they let International Observers into their nuclear facilities, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.

The Republican nominee wannabe described the current US position developed by President Obama as one of turning the United States "into paper tigers."

The statement is POPULIST. We are seeing more and more of this populist jargon as the Republican primary and the presidential campaign chug along.

Populism has its great benefits. Populism is an attempt to emote a folksy political point of view. Populism represents the masses against the detached leadership.

Then again, populist political platforms almost always oversimplify to the point of being dangerous - and yet, populist points always sway voters, they fuel the momentum which brings voters to a candidate.

Rick Santorum is correct to push for action because he will get support. Where his populism fails is that bombing the nuclear sites does not solve the problem - it opens up a series of other, very complicated, problems.

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Sunday January 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arabic newspaper Al Hayat which is headquartered in London is the pulse of much of what happens in the Arabic world. Al Hayat ran an interview with Rashad Bayoumi the #2 person in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leading in the elections for parliament. Together with the Nouri party, another extremist Muslim party, the extremists can already claim about 75% of the seats in the parliament.

Bayoumi said that the Muslim Brotherhood will never recognize Israel and will never sit with Israel. He said that they will "ask the people" i.e. call for a referendum, about the treaty.

In response to the question of the Brotherhood's adhering to international treaties which they claimed they would do, Bayoumi said that the Brotherhood did not sign the treaty with Israel and that he does not see it as binding.

"We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people's freedom and sovereignty ... The people will express their opinion on the matter."

Bayoumi continued by saying that "each side has the right to re-examine the treaty."

This does not bode well for the region or for US interests.

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Saturday December 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There are riots in Southern Egypt. Christians are getting beaten and church property is being destroyed.

The riots began because an image of the Prophet Mohamed was posted on the Facebook page of a 17 year old Christian student. The student, Gama Massoud, has been arrested for creating an image of the Prophet.
The student denies that he did it. Massoud claims that someone else posted the image on his page.

The significance of these events is gargantuan. Look at what happened: Because an image was posted on Facebook there were two days of violence - riots, beatings and burnings. Someone was arrested for posting an imagined picture of Mohammed and he claims that his friends did it as a practical joke and that lands him in prison. People can die in these riots.

We in the West blithely assume that Egypt is making the trek along the road to democracy. This does not look anything like the democracy we know.

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Friday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Stuxnet and DUQU? They were 2 of the worms that have attacked Iranian nuclear installations and computer systems.

Yesterday the Russian anti-virus company names Kaspersky gave even more insight in to the worms. They confirmed that the worms were related. This is what I have said since the end of October when DUQU arrived on the scene.

But most importantly Kaspersky says that there are five more worms. They called them cousins.

My contacts explain that more worms like Stuxnet were inevitable. The principle behind the worm is to attack Iran. Not to attack once but to constantly attack. And each attach sets the stage for another future attack.

There are two reasons why there must be more Stuxnet worms:

The worms cost too much money to develop and as such they need a complete set of them.

A single attack would never be significant enough to ultimately ruin the Iranian nuclear system.

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Thursday December 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress agreed to free $40 million of aid and give it to the Palestinians. This is 20% of the $187 million that was frozen by Congress after the Palestinians began their move for statehood which put them in the Congressional doghouse.

The Obama administration has been pushing to free up aid saying that the money will help stabilize the Palestinian areas.

The Administration also claims that Israel is in favor of freeing the aid money.

All along the Palestinians knew that the US could not withhold the aid. And unfortunately, they were correct.

If the aid goes through, the Palestinians will be made to suffer no consequences for publically and internationally humiliating the United States.

And the Palestinians continue to act against US interests and still ask for more money. Now they are pursuing a plan of unity with Hamas. That can only end in one way - in anti-Western and anti-US actions.

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Wednesday December 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if more sanctions are levied on them by the West. The Straits are a narrow water way through which about 30% of the world's oil travels on any given day.

Iran's first Vice President Mohammad Raza Rahimi was quoted in IRNA yesterday saying "If they (the West) imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz."

Much of the Straits are in the territorial water's of Iran. Until now Iran has permitted the international community to use the Straits as if they were international waters - but that is only by their grace. That fact seems to have eluded the United States and most other Western countries in their bid to apply sanctions against Iran.

It is in the vital interests of the United States to keep those Straits open. But at any time the Iranians can legally shut the Straits down. Iran will probably make this argument in advance in order to totally disarm any potential attack against them.

In addition the Iranians have just announced that they will seek the death penalty for an America caught and being tried as a spy.

Bundling these issues demonstrates how Iran is planning to utilize
pressure to achieve their diplomatic goals. Once again, the Iranians are very good at what they do.

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Tuesday December 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Afghanistan have just signed a gasoline and jet fuel deal that will begin next week.

According to the deal, Iran promises to provide 1 million tons of gasoline and jet fuel to Afghanistan.

This agreement is very significant - it proves what I have been saying for at least 18 months: Iran is not suffering from sanctions.

Common knowledge was that Iran produced oil, but still needed to import 45% of its gasoline. That number was then reduced to 30%.

And now Iran exports oil. Iran refines oil and has plenty left over to sell.

Those who thought that sanctions would cripple Iran because they did not have gas were simply wrong. The sanctions motivated Iran. They updated and built new refineries. And because Afghanistan borders
Iran it will be easy to transport the gasoline.

Once again, proof of just how good Iran is at playing this game.

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Monday December 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli and US leadership are asking the big question.

Western European leaders are asking the same thing.

Speaking about peace is one thing - but what about actions?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been speaking about peace but at the same time that his lips are moving, his arms are hugging freed terrorists and making deals with Hamas.

Serious thinkers and conscientious leaders want to know what Abbas really wants to accomplish. They are beginning to say that Abbas cannot have it both ways.

Is Abbas influencing Hamas or is Hamas going to influence Abbas?
Any unity government, in fact, any agreement of any type with Hamas is dangerous. And now there is a PA/Hamas agreement that has not yet been made public.

Hamas is sworn to the destruction of Israel. It is highly unlikely that Hamas leaders will change their charter even if, for the short term, they agree to a cease fire and not attack Israel.

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Sunday December 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Christmas Day 5 explosions rocked Nigeria. At least 25 people were killed.

The explosions were attacks on churches. They were attacks on Christians celebrating Christmas.

The attacks were coordinated. The goal was to intimidate Christians. The group called Boko Haram almost certainly perpetrated these murderous bombings.

Let me give you a sense of the philosophy of the group: The name Boko Haram means "Western education is sacrilege" or "Western philosophy is a sin."

Boko Haram is a Muslim group and they want total Islamic control over all aspects of life in Nigeria. There is nothing more threatening to them than other religious points of view - and Christianity means Western culture.

Boko Haram attacks show a continued increase in sophistication and planning. Their attacks are becoming more and more deadly and more and more, they are targeting specific symbols of Western values.

I am shocked that the response to these attacks has been so muted.

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Saturday December 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was a true diplomatic scuffle between France and Turkey.
As of Now Turkey has recalled their ambassador from Paris and they do not plan on having him return.

It happened as a result of a bill, passed in the French Parliament, making it illegal to deny genocide - specifically the genocide of the Armenians which took place at the close of WW I at the hands of the Turks.

The Turks have called the bill racist and will not even posit a public argument to debate the issue.

French diplomats have asked Turkey to discuss the matter, suggesting that pulling an ambassador is a very serious diplomatic act.

The French are suggesting that there are other, better methods of resolving differences.

Observers are not placing bets on a reconciliation, they see this diplomatic posturing as indicative of the new Turkey.

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Friday December 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Hamas Politburo Chief Haled Mashaal. The meet was held in Cairo, Egypt.

Hamas agreed in principle to join the PLO, the political party of the PA. And then they decided to set up a series of committees - including an election committee to plan the next election for the PA.

This is a huge step.

It is hard to say whether it is a positive or a negative step, but it is a step.

Hamas has never recognized the PA government because Hamas won the plurality in the last election but then never had an opportunity to govern because Abbas ousted Hamas and their prime minister. That led to Hamas throwing the PLO and booting the PA out of Gaza in a bloody coup.

Since then Hamas and the PA have not been able to agree on power sharing.

Because Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come together it does not necessarily follow that Hamas will not run in the election.
The PLO is by definition an umbrella for many Palestinian organizations. What it means is Hamas is confident that if they do run, they will once again win the plurality.

These are not the Republicans and the Democrats - they are and will always be the PA and Hamas.

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Thursday December 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has refused to meet with Hamas leader Haled Mashaal.

This tension is not new.

It began several months ago when Hamas called for reforms in Syria.

Since then Hamas has been asked to leave Syria.

Hamas had found digs elsewhere.

Hamas' main offices are now in Jordan, with some other facilities in Qatar.

Jordan granted Hamas safety under one condition: absolutely no operations be initiated from Jordan - that means no planning and no execution of operations.

Mashaal accepted the conditions and moved almost the entire Hamas bureaucracy base to Amman. But because they also need an operations center, the Qatar office was opened.

Should Israel discover that Hamas operations were being executed out of Jordan, that would be casus belli which means an incident of war and hence - a reason for war. If that were to happen it could and it would legally permit Israel the right to strike Hamas operation centers in Jordan.

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Wednesday December 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just decided to move 90%of all their websites - into Iran. Until now they were hosted by private servers and companies outside Iran.

The Iranians believe that this will render their websites more difficult to hack and make them impenetrable.

Of course, the opposite is true.

Until now the Iranians blamed the hosts for the hacks. The reality is that the hackers were very, very good at what they did. There is only so much a host can do when the hackers are dedicated and relentless.

Bringing the websites to Iran is a problem. Iran has neither the people nor the technology to defend their websites, to constantly update and to fend off attacks.

This decision will only make Iran's websites easier to hack and allow hackers better access to Iran.

For everyone outside Iran, that's good news.

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Tuesday December 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria yesterday 60 to 70 deserters were gunned down as they were running away from their posts.

This is the first situation in Syria where so many soldiers deserted at a single time. In order to make certain that the soldiers did not escape, machine guns were used to shoot them dead.

Until now desertion has not been a serious issue Syria.

This incident can go both ways.

It can intimidate other soldiers not to desert out of fear of being executed.

Or it could move more soldiers to plot a clean escape out of an oppressive military environment.

This shooting is extremely telling. Syrians are running away and other Syrians think nothing of shooting to kill.

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Monday December 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the second set of elections took place in Egypt. Nine more provinces went to the polls to vote for the Egyptian Parliament which is composed of 498 representatives.

Once again the two largest Muslim extremist parties, the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice party and the Salafi al- Nour party, garnered a large majority of the vote. This time they came home with 75% of the vote, gaining even more votes in the second set of elections than extremist parties did three weeks ago when the first nine provinces went to the polls.

This time the FJP (Freedom and Justice Party) received 40% of the vote and the Salafi al-Nour party received 35%.

In the previous election the Nour party received 24% and the Muslim Brotherhood garnered 37%.

The next set of provinces is scheduled to vote in January.

None of this should surprise anyone. The first set of elections took place in more urban centers, the second set in rural provinces. The rule is that: the more urban the more likely to vote non-extremist, the more rural the more likely to vote for the extremists.

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Sunday December 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Once again the gas pipelines in the Sinai desert of Egypt have been attacked by terrorists.

This is the 10th time in the recent past that attempts have been made to explode the pipe lines - and it will not be the last time. The terrorists want to disrupt the flow of natural gas to Israel. They want to hurt Israel.

Problem is, the terrorists still don't get it.

Israel has been weaning itself from Egyptian natural gas. They are far less dependent than they once were. Jordan, however, is still nearly 90% dependent on Egyptian natural gas. The terrorist plan to hurt the Jewish State actually ends up crippling an Arab state instead.

What is most strange is that these pipelines are supposed to be guarded by the Egyptian army. The army has simply been sound asleep on the job. By virtue of their silence, the Egyptian army is sending a signal to the terrorists that it is all right to continue their attacks on the gas pipelines of Sinai.

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Saturday December 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week US Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson, together with US Senator and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry, met with representative from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

This is no small feat.

This is the first time any official meetings have taken place at this high a level. In diplomatic speak, the ambassador is called a senior government official. The chairman is referred to as an influential political leader or politician.

The meeting was a shift in US policy. It was a move away from isolating the Muslim Brotherhood towards acknowledging them as a major player in the new Egypt.

Here is the problem: The Muslim Brotherhood is not democratic and should never have been permitted to stand for election in the first place. But they did.

So now, because they are such a significant power, the United States has begun to court them. For their part, the Brotherhood has not shown any reciprocal interest.

We need to wait and see. The Muslim Brotherhood sometimes surprises us.

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Friday December 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The top secret US Bat Drone that the Iranians now possess - and are in the process of reverse engineering, was, according to a report in the Christian Science Monitor, hacked and hijacked.

The logic works. The huge question was this: how could the drone, which was being displayed on Iranian TV, be in such good condition. There were no signs of damage which would make no sense at all if it fell from the air or was shot down.
Now we have the answer.

The report which is based on Iranian sources says that Iran hacked the control system of the drone and took advantage of it while it was in between GPS connections. Evidently the Iranians knew that there were GPS gaps in the drone's link to it handlers and that during that time, the drone was vulnerable.

Iranian hackers tricked the drone into landing, making it think that it was returning to Afghanistan. This information was gleaned from other downed US drones.

The entire episode is an embarrassment to the United States. It is the beginning of a dangerous and unfortunate new reality. Iran has some of the US's latest technology. And the United States just handed it over to them. The only thing missing was a big bow.

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Thursday December 15, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Now, a week later, it is obvious that the Iranians are in possession of a US Bat Drone. Both the president and the secretary of state of the United States have asked the Iranians to please give it back. The answer was a resounding NO!

The Iranians want to reverse engineer the drone. According to Iranian press reports the Chinese, the Russian and the North Koreans have all called and asked to see the drone.

I do not understand why the US did not outfit the drone with a kill switch. That drone should have been destroyed as soon as it went out of US control.

Each drone should be outfitted with a switch that either destroys everything inside or a self destruct mechanism that fries the entire mechanism. These are built specifically to prevent reverse engineering.

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Wednesday December 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi met with Saudi Intelligence Minster Prince Nayef.

This was indeed a very unusual meeting.

This was the first interaction between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the United States accused Iran of plotting to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington, DC.

There is no question that tensions are running high between these two polar opposites countries. The agenda of this tete a tete was almost certainly to smooth over the terrible animosity that has emerged the countries.

I was not a fly on that wall, but I can say with the wisdom gained from years of studying and analyzing these countries and the region, that the Iranians did not apologize but rather - came with an explanation.

They probably said that yes, these were former Iranians plotting the assassination, but that the members of the cell caught by the United States were rogues and amateurs. That it had nothing to do with Iranian's real leadership. That Iran would not jeopardize the stability of the region by plotting such an assassination.
And Saudi Arabia, I believe, walked away satisfied.

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Tuesday December 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel launched their Amos 5 satellite from somewhere in Kazakhstan.

The Amos 5 is the newest and most sophisticated satellite that Israel has launched. It can and will serve as a communications hub for all of Israel's interactions. It will also be used to transmit and relate the clearest of all images from around the globe.

Israel's satellite systems are enormously important tools in protecting Israel. They gather information and enable Israel to observe and interpret the actions of both friends and foes.

Satellites also permit Israel to trade information and intelligence with the United States and other world powers.

Because of their state of the art satellites, Israel is a player in world intelligence.

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Monday December 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The acting temporary prime minister of Egypt broke down in tears while speaking to the press yesterday.

Kamal el Ganzouri is the third person to hold the position of temporary prime minister in Egypt since February, when Hosni Mubarak was ousted.

Ganzouri cried as he described the economic situation in Egypt. He said that the Egyptian economy is worse than anyone can imagine. He said that the state of tourism is horrific and that crime is rampant.

Seldom have I ever witnessed a tearful Arab leader. Certainly I have never seen an emotional display of this sort in public and not ever when discussing the economy.

It will be interesting to see how the Egyptians and other Arabs interpret this act. Will they describe it as an act of weakness or will they describe it as pathos.

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Sunday December 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Two weeks ago a huge explosion was heard in Isfahan, the third largest city in Iran.

The explosion came from a factory that refined yellow cake also known as urania. The blast was reported on Iranian websites - but then quickly taken down.

Now there are intelligence satellite pictures that show bulldozers at work clearing rubble and destroying buildings in the factory compound.

The pictures in and of themselves do not say anything - but they allow so to make inferences as to what truly happened as a result of that blast.

We can infer that the factory was badly damaged by the explosion and we can infer that Iranian decision makers are either knocking down the building in order to rebuild it, or in order to eliminate evidence of any explosion.

Any way you look at it, it is clear that Iran's nuclear program was damaged. The extent of that damage is harder to assess.

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Friday December 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is only one way to topple Bashar Assad of Syria. There needs to be a massive armed uprising.

And the Syrians are so far from making that happen.

True, a massive armed uprising would mean an enormously high number of deaths on the side of the resisters - but it is the only way. A simple, small uprising would only make matters and the lives of Syrians worse.

As of now Assad has the army behind him and very few military have defected from the army. Those who have defected are not from elite units and do not have great training. If they have weapons they are small and have limited ammo.

A massive uprising would require mass defections from the army, but that is not happening because everyone had the feeling that whatever they do, it will be useless. Assad is strong and Assad is ruthless.

The uprising I am talking about will need outside aid with weapons. But until there is a united voice for the opposition within Syria, outside sources of help cannot and will not help them.

Even when they try to act like opposition resistance forces, they get it wrong. The two major resistance groups in Syria decided to restrict their attacks against Assad's forces and instead, only defend the demonstrators.

That is a step backwards for regime change.

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Thursday December 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood claimed electoral victory yesterday in the second round of elections in Egypt. This past Monday and Tuesday there was a two day run off for 45 individual seats. These seats are not connected to the party - the people ran on their own.

The Muslim Brotherhood claims to have won 34 of the 45 individual seats.

This segment of the election was held in 9 of the most urban of provinces in Egypt. If their claim is proven correct and this trend continues that will mean the Muslim Brotherhood will control nearly 75% of the 498 seats up for election in the Egyptian parliament.
These results should be truly worrying for the West and there is nothing we can do about it.

Once again the West's push for democrat elections in an Arab country results in Islamic extremists rising to power and control.

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Wednesday December 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United States returned its ambassador to Syria last night.

Ambassador Ford had been recalled for a combination of reasons. One reason was for his personal safety. The other was that the White House was sending a message to Syrian President Assad.

There was good intel that the US ambassador to Syria was becoming a target. For his safety they brought him back. In response, Syria withdrew its own ambassador from DC.

Now the question is: why would the US return Ambassador Ford?

The official reason is to help make certain US interests are served. But France is also returning its ambassador. France and Italy are the two European countries who withdrew their ambassadors in the first place.

When the United States and France return their ambassadors to Syria, you can bet there is a very important back story. So what's the real, not official reason? The US and France want and need trusted observers and diplomats on the ground in Syria.

It is a shame.

Saudi Arabia is not for a moment thinking of returning its ambassador.

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Tuesday December 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iranians in the capital city of Teheran live in fear of an air strike that might happen at any time, on any day.

Since last week's raids on the two British embassy compounds in Teheran, Iranians are almost certain that retaliation will come in the form of an air strike.

Citizens have been stockpiling food and necessities. Foreigners have been pouring out of the country and the international schools have all closed. The French international school, which is located on the British Embassy compound, watched as the mobs attacked the embassy. They have since closed. The German school located nearby has closed and the British school - which is not located on the compound, has also been closed.

Iranians see all the closings as forebodings, they take is as a sign of a Western attack.

Actually, the schools closed to protect the students. Just like the British embassy these schools are Western institutions. They are very public and easy targets. The rioters and extremists could easily attack them.

Until the tone changes and tensions and calm are restored, the schools will remain closed and the people of Teheran will remain fearful.

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December 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

My sources are telling me that Iran has, with almost certainty, come to the conclusion that the huge explosion that rocked the Algahdir missile base on November 12th, the explosion that killed 36 people including the head of the Iranian missile program - was caused by a worm.

The Iranians are now seriously trying to determine if the explosion was caused by either the Stuxnet or the DUQU virus.

If they are correct, it means that their systems are still seriously infected. It means that the Iranian missiles, the main weapon in any attack by Iran on Western targets or on Israel, are out of commission. It means that the Shahab 3 and the Sejil 2 are now useless.

People say that it will take Iran two to three months to clean their systems of the viruses. My tech people do not believe that to be the case. They say that there is really no way to clean these worms from your system. The virus becomes dormant and is not detected - but it has not gone away. Actually, it creates a false trail suggesting that your defense has detected and removed the virus while in reality, it is still deeply embedded in your system.

If the Iranians are correct, their entire missile system is in jeopardy. And that is good news for the West.

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Saturday December 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

As the rhetoric continues to escalate in Iran about a potential strike and then their counter strike, we need to pay careful attention to what is being said and who is saying it.

Iranian Defense Minister Ahamed Vahidi was quoted recently saying: "Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, if the Americans make the mistake and attack Iran, we will show them how to fight."

The Defense Minister continued: "Israel has to be punished for what it has done to the Muslims in Palestine and Lebanon."

Vahidi said all this in front of 50,000 volunteer recruits to the Revolutionary Guard and concluded his remarks by saying that if Israel attacks Iran they will be hit by 150,000 missiles.

Iran does not have 150,000 rockets that have the range to hit Israel -- they have many fewer. But the minister was making a rhetorical point. He was preaching to the converted, he was egging them on.

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Friday December 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is torquing up the tensions and really applying the rhetoric.

Iranian military leader Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guards' Division of Aerospace, recently said that Iran will target the NATO missile defense shield in Turkey if the United States or Israel attacks the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian general was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency as saying that this warning is part of a new defense strategy to counter what Iran sees as an increase in threats from the United States and Israel.

In other words, Iran is giving notice that they will strike at US bases and their ally's bases.

The threats are increasing and they are real - but this is also about politics, US politics. Republican candidates, in debate after televised debate, keep spouting on about Iran without any real sense of the ramifications of their words.

Iran is responding in kind.

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Thursday December 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Several weeks ago there was a massive explosion that rocked a missile base just outside of Teheran. 18 people were killed. One of those killed was General Hassan Teherani Moqaddam, head of the missile program.

It is still unclear what caused the explosion. Some have said it was the Mossad, others have said that it was insurgents and anti-government underground forces. The government has been asserting that the explosion was an accident.

The explosion could have been caused by any or all of those reasons. Add to that the computer virus that has badly infected Iranian Siemens systems and there is another possible cause.

What is fascinating me right now is a Basij website that reported that the general's last will and testament said that he wants his tombstone to say "the person buried here wanted to destroy Israel."

For General Moqaddam, as for many leaders in the Iranian regime - and not only religious leaders as many people mistakenly believe, destroying Israel is a primary life objective.

That is mind boggling. That is insight into the Iranian mind.

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Wednesday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send its only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kuznetzov, to join a flotilla of war ships to Syria.

The Russians have built a multi-billion dollar navy base in Tartus, Syria. Tartus will be the new base of operations for the entire Russian presence in Middle East, especially for its submarine force.

Tartus is just north of Lebanon and a stone's throw from Turkey. It is practically next to Israel. And it is the second largest port of Syria.

Moving its aircraft carrier - its only aircraft carrier to Syria, makes a very strong statement.

This move says that Russia is going to support Syria on the ground and in the arena - not just in the United Nations Security Council where they continue to veto sanctions and any action against the Syrians.

Russia has too much to lose if Assad falls. That is why the Russians are doing their best to bolster Syria and secure the position of Bashar Assad.

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Tuesday November 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A huge explosion occurred in the Iranian city of Isfahan at 2:40 in the afternoon local time yesterday. According to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, the explosion took place in their uranium enrichment plant.

Soon after the piece was posted on FARS, it was removed. All the other official news sites in Iran quoted officials saying that no such explosion had occurred.

The Isfahan plant enriches uranium. It makes urania which is popularly known as Yellowcake. The Yellowcake is transformed into UF6 Gas which is the shortened form of Uranium Hexafuoride Gas. After the UF6 Gas is produced it is shipped to Natanz and Qom.

The explosion did take place and it did a great amount of damage. It resembles the explosion that happened two weeks ago outside of Teheran at the Revolutionary Guard's missile base.
In that explosion 18 people were killed including the general in charge of the missile program.

Isfahan is Iran's third largest city. People know about the uranium conversion plant - it is located too close to the city for people not to hear and know what happened.

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Monday November 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Elections will be held in Egypt tomorrow and Tuesday. This is the beginning of a long, extended, election for the lower parliament which does not conclude until January.

There is an array of parties and the entire election process is unclear. There will certainly be bullying and corruption. There will be no international observers.

The follow up, the upper parliament and presidential election, is scheduled for the end of June.

Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council, has begged people to come out and vote. The problem is that when there is crisis, those who do vote - vote for the extremes.

Because there has been almost no education about the parties running for election and no education about the voting process - very few Egyptians will ultimately come out to vote. They do not know where to go and have no idea of when to vote or how the votes will be tallied.

Egypt has no single independent body watching the process. It is a recipe for corruption and for extremism.

This is electoral anarchy. That is the worst kind of elections.
Just wait and see.

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Sunday November 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco held an election on Saturday and The Party for Justice and Development (PJD) won the plurality. That means it won more votes than any other party, but not a majority. Now they need to form a coalition in order to rule.

There are about 33 million people in Morocco. 13 million are registered to vote and 45% of that group actually voted. In other words, about 6 million came out to the polls.

The PJD is an Islamic party. In all likelihood they will join with the left wing socialist party and two other parties in the current ruling coalition.

Bottom line: those who voted the Islamic line hoping for an Islamic state, will be disappointed.

For Moroccans in general the results of this election mean that there is virtually no chance to solve their country's 30 % unemployment and their huge deficit. It means that the 8.5 million Moroccans, 25% of the country, now living in abject poverty will continue to live in abject poverty.

Morocco now joins Tunisia as the second Muslim country to elect an Islamic plurality. These elections do not portend well for change. At best, there will be no impact on the lives of the voters, at worst - well, let's just hope for the best.

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Saturday November 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo, Egypt there was a rally attended by about 8,000 people.

The one verse quoted from the Koran, repeated over and over, by speaker after speaker, was this: "We will kill all the Jews."

One speaker said that the reason the US is losing in Afghanistan is because Muslims are willing to die for their cause. He said that: "Muslims have a different mentality."

Speakers referred to freeing Tel Aviv.

Speakers spoke about Jerusalem and how Muslim holy sites are being Juda-ized.

Speakers called on Muslims to unite and defend themselves against the Zionists and the United States.

The theme was: unite against the common enemy - Jews, Israel and the West.

The speaker who said Muslims have a different mentality was right. These rallies are deserving of more coverage in the mainstream Western press. The Western world needs to know what is going on, needs to understand how much the Muslim world hates us.

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Friday November 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Sanctions are the kind of thing Westerners understand. They are one of the only tools that can have an impact and that can help convince oppressive regimes to change.

Sometimes they work - sometimes they have the opposite effect.
Syria is the perfect example.

The EU has stepped up their sanctions on Syria. Heating oil, specifically, is not to be exported to Syria.

So who gets hurt by the lack of heating oil in Syria? The very people who want to oust Assad. Assad is not hurt at all, he has plenty of heating oil and he makes certain that those loyal to him have heat.

There was a delivery of heating oil to Syria on Wednesday by AOT, a Swiss company. Unfortunately, they are the only ones who understand what is really happening.

If ousting Assad is a priority, the actions applied should place pressure on Assad, not on those we are trying to support and to protect.

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Wednesday November 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli army is preparing for a major offensive in Gaza.

The division that will be primary in the operation is the engineering corps. Right now the army is trying to understand the TUNNELS.

It was through the use of tunnels that Hamas was able to capture and hold Gilad Shalit. In the eyes of the Israeli army, it is the tunnels that will be the key to any future offensive against Hamas.

One of the things the engineering corps is investigating is how effective their D-9 bulldozers are. They are determining how far can the bulldozers can go inside Gaza and how deep they can dig.

These are humongous vehicles. These are intimidating machines with great strength. They can destroy any structure above or below the ground. But they have to know where to go to be effective.

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November 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy & National Security

*It should be clear that foreign policy is enormously important to the task of the president --- but it is not foreign policy that influences voters. Very few people say I support this candidate because of his/her foreign policy POV.

*Foreign policy segues into national security. Threats against the US and against US interests begin abroad. Those threats need to be understood - they are what stimulates terror and threatens the homefront.

* Several of the candidates make the debates interesting - but they are not real candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate. He articulated libertarian ideas which are growing in popularity, but are wrong vis a vis for example, the Middle East. Rick Perry is another such candidate - his no fly zone over Syria is "way out there" it makes no sense and shows a lack of understanding of the way international decisions are made.

All the candidates did well - there were no major gaffs which also means that there were no memorable moments.

Each candidate is really only dealing in theory. These threats against the US are truly overwhelming and will only be actually understood after the first security briefing.

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Tuesday November 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Monday was a bloody day in Egypt.
At least 33 people were killed in clashes between the army and protesters.

As a direct result of the violence, the entire Egyptian cabinet submitted its resignation to the Supreme Military Council later that day.

The Council accepted their resignations.

This is all happening during the week that the first stage of Egyptian parliamentary elections is to take place.

There is very little chance that the election will be democratic and even less chance that Egypt will usher out the Supreme Military Council.

The army rules in Egypt and I expect they will continue to rule in the near future.

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Sunday November 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Newly released documents show just what Henry Kissinger thought about American Jewish leadership. It is not flattering.

Quotes from 1972 tell of Kissinger talking to Nixon aide Leonard Garment, who is also Jewish. In one exchange Kissinger asks, "Is there a more self-serving group of people than the Jewish community?" Garment, answers "None in the world."

Then Kissinger expounds on his earlier point "What the hell do they think they are accomplishing? You can't even tell bastards anything in confidence because they'll leak it."

I cannot say that I am surprised, but this does not make me feel comfortable. What is most deplorable to me is that Henry Kissinger has made millions of dollars speaking to Jews and advising Jewish groups - and the Jewish community has always taken pride in his accomplishments and showered Kissinger with respect.

Given these statements I do not think this self-hating Jew deserves such respect.

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Saturday November 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Friday is the Sabbath in the Islamic world. It is the perfect time for protests and rallies.

Yesterday, in Tahrir Square, 10's of thousands of Egyptians gathered to shout out against their military government. The main organizers and the main groups that attended the rally were religious groups - principally the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Supreme Military Council is the body that has been in charge of Egypt since Mubarak stepped down. Some people do not think that the Military will step aside - even after any elections.

Egyptian elections are slated for November 25th. But they are not final elections, they are the first of a series of elections that will be dragging out over months.

The people who came to the square to protest are expressing their anger.

Signs read: "Down with the Military." "We are not an Army Camp." "The Koran is our Constitution."

This last one is important. The draft of the new constitution contains an article giving the military council the power to supersede elected president.

This is the country that the Western world, specifically the United States, is hoping will turn into a democracy.

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Friday November 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA now has a plan for Iran. They want to create a mission. That's UN terminology for an onsite study.

Last week the IAEA issued a scathing report on Iran. You would think that the IAEA would now take some real action, especially after 15 years of walking on a tightrope with Iran.

But no ... the IAEA once again lives up to their tradition.

In response to their own damning report, the IAEA geared up, took a deep breath and asked Iran for permission to visit their nuclear facilities and inspect them again.

I ask you: What is the IAEA really there for?

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Thursday November 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syria's opposition is beginning to strike at Syrian military targets.
For the first time in eight months the handful of army deserters that now form the opposition are using their training, their weapons and their knowledge to hit Syrian army targets.

At 2:30AM, in the dark of night, a major military target on the edge of Damascus was attacked by shoulder mounted rockets and machine gun fire. At least six soldiers were killed and over twenty were wounded.

The opposition targeted an air force intelligence center. In Syria, the army and air force intelligence agencies are responsible for tracking and finding deserters.

This attack is a watershed, it was well planned and executed.

Attacks like prove to the Syrian that the balance can shift. Attacks like this one would be proof that Assad and his forces are vulnerable and even beatable.

These attacks can move the opposition up a notch, propelling them from the protest stage to actual conflict.

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Tuesday November 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestine Prime Minister Salam Fayyad gave an interview to al Quds, an official Palestinian media outlet, yesterday.

In the interview Fayyad asserted that unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is a major objective and is an essential ingredient in moving ahead and gaining statehood. He referred to statehood as the "Palestinian dream."

He said: let there be a new prime minister.

Fayyad was never elected, instead, he was appointed by President Abbas in a move to oust Hamas from political power.

For Hamas, Fayyad is the symbol of the political power that was stolen from them by the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas has never accepted Fayyad as prime minister and it is no secret to anyone - including Fayyad, that in order to have any unity between Hamas and the PA, Fayyad must step aside.

The problem is that Fayyad is one of the only people in the Palestinian government who understands how a government should work and he is actively working for reforming in order to achieve some sense of government accountability and responsibility.

This is a Palestinian Catch - 22.

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Monday November 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The virus struck again.

Iran has been hit once again by a computer virus. This virus, which is very similar to the Stuxnet, is called DUQU.

Iran admitted that they have been hit and are saying that it is now under control.

Symantec (Norton) identified the worm on October 19th. It is hard to imagine that Iran managed to get it under control so quickly.

The DUQU virus attacks Windows fonts systems, it also gathers information and intel for further attacks. The virus has already been indentified in 12 countries - but the hacker community buzz is 100% certain that the target was Iran.

The name DUQU comes from the prefix of the file it creates. It looks like this ~DQ.

Stuxnet specifically attacked Siemens systems. Siemens controls water, electricity, gas, oil and of course, nuclear technology.

It is highly unlikely that Iran has either of these worms under control. The only way to know for sure is to actually use the weapons system.

DUQU is a major setback for Iran - and that is good news for the rest of the world.

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Sunday November 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The internet is lit up about the explosion in Iran at a missile base located only 25 miles outside of Teheran.

The explosion killed 17 members of the elite Revolutionary Guard, including a general.

Speculation is that the Israeli Mossad is behind the attack. The Mossad could not have done it on its own, so added speculation says that Israel acted together with MEK, the Mujahedeen e Kalq.

The MEK is a well organized anti-regime movement in Iran that has the very strong support of wealthy Iranians living in exile.

The word was that MEK, together with the Mossad, is responsible for a slew of attacks including those against the Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at other military installations over the past few years.That's the speculation. But the reality is that even if the Mossad supports these acts, it is highly unlikely that they are involved. It is almost impossible to run agents in Iran.

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Saturday November 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League suspended Syria. The suspension takes effect as of November 16.

I never thought it would happen.

This was such a surprise move that even caught many Arab League members unawares. It was 18 votes for suspension and only Yemen, Lebanon and, of course, Syria voting against the suspension.

The Arab League has been trying to pressure Syria top stop killing civilians. And each time, even after Syria agreed to stop the killing, it continued - sometimes just minutes and hours after the agreements were reached.

Last week another agreement was reached to stop the killing - and at least 250 civilians have been killed since then.

The Arab League is saying that they will now institute sanctions against Syria and they are calling all members to withdraw their ambassadors. They are walking the walk and talking the talk.

This move by the Arab League may be the most significant step towards ousting Assad.

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Friday November 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has warned Israel not to attack Iran.

Larijani made it clear that the Iranians are well prepared to defend themselves. He made it clear that should Israel attack, it will be very costly for Israel for the US and for their allies.

Of course, the Speaker did not call Israel by name. In Iran the conventional form is to refer to Israel only as the Zionist Entity and sometimes, as the Zionist Occupier.

The question is whether the Speaker was just bloviating or whether these were true threats.

Normally, in situations like this the more rhetoric Iran uses the less likely they are to strike - words are used to mask how weak they are. However, when Iran utilizes such heavy threat and rhetoric it also means that they are activating their proxies in the region.

Iran has a capable army. Iran also has a very serious set of surface to surface missiles. But it is much easier for Iran to turn up the rhetoric and activate their proxies than to launch an attack or a counter attack against Israel.

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Thursday November 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report is out. There is nothing new in the report, nothing we did not know from the outset. This exact report could have been written fifteen years ago.

For the past 15 years some of us have been warning about Iran's nuclear ambition - but to no avail. Most of the world, including the IAEA, has been blase, uninterested and downright apathetic to Iran's nuclear aspirations.

In many ways the IAEA actually helped Iran cloak and continue their development. The United States served the same role. They were always willing to give Iran another chance. And each time Iran received a new chance, they used it to improve on their technology.

The UN and the US could be considered "useful fools." Using the term "fools" at least posits that their role was not deliberately malicious. Although some say that the IAEA, under the leadership of Mohammed Baradei, was complicit in Iran's nuclear development. It is true that under the leadership the agency deliberately did not publish findings which were damning to Iran.

This IAEA report is based on foreign intel and strongly suggest that Iran is working to develop nuclear technology in order to create weapons. So what else is new?

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Wednesday November 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no explaining why the press did not pick up the story of how US President Obama and French President Sarkozy dissed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It happened last Thursday and the story has only just begun to get traction. It was a web site in France that broke the story and then the Israeli press ran with it. The New York Post covered the story, but it was a small piece. Then the Huffington Post and AOL posted it and Fox News ran it along with an interview with John McCain saying how embarrassing this is for the United States, and that Obama should know better.

When I tweet the incident I was asked for my sources - suggesting that it was all a made up incident, validated by the fact that the White House would not even make a comment about it.

This is yet another example of a very amateurish Middle East POV.

Even if he believes what he said and was not just politely agreeing with Sarkozy, Obama should never say these things. They will only come back to haunt him in the Jewish community. Even if Jewish donor and communal leaders agree with the president's assessment of Netanyahu they will never tell him that or make it public.

The US president owes the Israeli prime minister both a private and public apology. He has put his fundraisers in a very bad position and he has some more serious explaining to do to his Jewish donors and backers.

This is the same mistake that Obama made when speaking of the '67 borders. Certain things are quietly understood, but they are never voiced.

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Tuesday November 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Beware the open microphone, especially if you are a head of state.

Barack Obama and Nicholas Sarkozy have been caught in a flagrant faux pas.

Following a G-20 press conference, the two men began to talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They thought the conversation was private. But the mic was on and a room full of journalists, from around the world, were privy to a 3-4 minute scathing critique before the mistake was discovered.

As a courtesy, none of the journalists rushed to publish the story.

The essence of what they said goes like this:
Sarkozy - I can't stand him
Obama - You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him every day

The two leaders were there to discuss France's abstention on the question of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Obama was very displeased with the French conciliatory gesture.

Then the conversation veered to Netanyahu. They should have stuck to their official agenda.

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Monday November 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli strategists and the military have been considering the next, bad case, scenarios. Teams are training in order to try to prevent them from happening and to combat the possible attacks if they do happen.

The scenario that the army believes is almost certainly on the agenda is the mass kidnapping of a bus - a tourist bus, a school bus, maybe a city bus and then holding the hostages in exchange for prisoners in Israeli jails.

Some strategists believe that this was the motivation and the plan of Hamas terrorists who attacked a tourist bus en route to Eilat this past August. In the end, the terrorists were simply not successful in actualizing their complete plan. They attacked the bus, killed people aboard the bus, but were unable to kidnap the bus.

Two teams are training for this - one in the South of Israel and one in the North.

In the eyes of the military this mass kidnapping is a foregone conclusion.

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Sunday November 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed rumors that the PA would be supplying housing to the prisoners released from Israeli jails in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive for over five year by Hamas.

This admission has serious implications.

The released prisoners were all, in one form or another, terrorists.
Almost the entire PA budget comes from the United States, other Western countries and the United Nations.

These nations and organizations have made it very clear to the Palestinian Authority that no funds can be given, in any way, to terrorist activities.

The money cannot support terrorists or be used as reward for the families of terrorists. The money may not be given before or after acts of terrorism to anyone. No one involved in terror may benefit from the funds given for humanitarian aid.

Giving government-sponsored housing to these terrorist prisoners is in direct violation of the stipulations set down by the donor nations. Where else would Abbas and his government be getting the money?

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Saturday November 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Another flotilla was intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza. The flotilla consisted of two ships, one from Canada and a yacht from Ireland.

27 people, including crew and journalists (one Iranian journalist), were aboard.

The flotilla did not resist but neither did they heed warnings - they continued on their path toward Gaza after being warned away.

The Israeli Navy stopped the ships and towed the vessels and all the people aboard to the port of Ashdod. The participant journalists and crew were all processed by the police and border control. All of the people will be deported.

No weapons were on the ships. No medical or humanitarian aid was on board either. Ostensibly, the ships were claiming to be bringing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

This flotilla embarked on their journey to get publicity - nothing more and nothing less. Unfortunately for them, that has not happened. A few newspapers have written short pieces and there were some pictures, but this flotilla never made the splash the organizers had hoped for.

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Friday November 4, 2011

I've been thinking:

The Palestinians have changed strategy. They have decided not to apply for full membership status in all of the 16 United Nations agencies.

This shift is dramatic.

And it has come about because the Palestinians now realize what they have done- how by lobbying for and then receiving full membership status in UNESCO they have alienated and disenfranchised their major donors. The decision by the United States, Canada and even Israel to stop funding the Palestinians has effectively bankrupted the PA.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has stepped in and asked the Palestinian Authority to abort their plan. He said that the decision to become recognized members of the various UN agencies will result in the suffering of millions of Palestinian residents.

Israel is now stopping the transfer of taxes to the PA, taxes which come to about $100 million a month. This will strangle the PA.

The damage Palestinian leadership has done to itself is huge. Millions of Palestinians will starve. Millions will suffer terribly -and unnecessarily.

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Thursday November 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the Egyptian court found 73 people guilty of defiling and destroying the Israel Embassy in Cairo.

One might think that this was a significant symbol of justice for the new Egypt. But no - all 73 people were given suspended sentences.
That means that although these Egyptians were found guilty of perpetrating the crime, not one of them has or will be punished.

The gruesome attacks on the Israeli embassy took place just two months ago, on September 9th and September 10th. It was all caught on tape and available for everyone to see on You Tube. You see the aggressive behavior of hundred and hundreds if not thousands of angry Egyptians as they rip apart the building.

And all the while, the Egyptian army and the Egyptian police stood by and watched. This was an attack on one of the basic rules of diplomacy. A foreign embassy and staff are never to be threatened or touched. They are off limits. Those are the rules.

Those rules explain why the 73 were convicted. But the new Egypt does not care much for these rules - and that explains why the sentences were suspended.

The Egyptian authorities are telling their nation that even if you break the international norm, we are behind you.

Once again, welcome to the new Egypt.

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Tuesday November 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is Islamic Jihad that is shooting rockets at Israel from Gaza.

Islamic Jihad, with the permission of Hamas.
I understand why Islamic Jihad is shooting at Israel, what I do not understand is why Hamas is permitting it to happen.

Islamic Jihad is trying to make a place for itself, trying to improve its stature and status in the Arab world. Hamas made their name and turned into a serious player as a result of the Gilad Shalit deal. Islamic Jihad wants to do the same.

Islamic Jihad also wants to show the Arab world that they can launch longer, better and more accurate rockets than Hamas - rockets that they got from Iran.

According to intel sources, Islamic Jihad has many more long range rockets than does Hamas. They have rockets with a range of 30 miles and it is those rockets that are hitting the Israeli cities of Beersheba, Ashdod and Asheklon.

When they send the rockets into Israel, Islamic Jihad is testing the range and accuracy of the product they received from Iran.

So why is Hamas permitting this to happen? Because Hamas is unaware of the potential threat from Islamic Jihad.

Hamas is sitting back and enjoying its success ... but Islamic Jihad has thousands of fighters. They are making a big splash - and it might very well cause the fall of Hamas.

If this situation continues, Israel will have no choice but to go in and actually unseat Hamas.

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Sunday October 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Libya the National Transition Council, aka the NTC, announced that they will investigate and prosecute the people who executed Col. Moammar Ghadaffi.

I do not believe they will follow through with this announcement. I think that what they are doing is throwing the West a proverbial bone.

The NTC has been hit very hard for having created an atmosphere of vengeance - not justice. during the rise of the opposition and in its aftermath, after Ghadaffi was deposed and in hiding.

The Ghadaffi killing is the most glaring example, but it is just one example of many.

It is clear from the video that Ghadaffi gave himself up. It is clear that he should have been arrested and not killed.

It is clear that that did not happen - and very few Libyans see the injustice or immorality of that act.

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Saturday October 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For several weeks Gaza was quiet. No shots were fired from Gaza into Israel.

The quiet has now been shattered.

Hamas had been treading very carefully during the final stages of the Shalit prisoner exchange. They did everything they could to preserve the quiet and make certain that their 1,027 prisoners would be released. And they were.

Even when there was a rocket attack during that period, Hamas proved that they handled the rogue activists and that they were neither Hamas operatives nor were they operating under the orders or auspices of Hamas.

Now that the prisoners are home, long range rockets - even longer than before the period of quiet, are being launched into Israel. Recently launched rockets landed in the port city of Ashdod and alarms have been sounded in the city of Kiryat Malachi.

This is called a serious escalation in rocket attacks.

We must watch and see how Israel responds.

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Friday October 28, 2011

I've Been thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has submitted a letter to the United Nations Security Council complaining about Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister.

The complaint says that Lieberman is threatening the life of PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

How is he threatening him? By saying that Abbas is "an obstacle to peace" and by saying that any leader would be better than Abbas for the peace process.

This is especially funny because not long ago - when the peace negotiation were working and when there was real progress, there were real and significant threats to Abbas' life. Those outright and direct threats, however, were never brought to the Security Council even though the threats were real enough and people were actually arrested for plotting the assassination of the president of the Palestinian Authority.

These are not threats at all, not real and not veiled. Lieberman is simply pointing out that Abbas is either ineffective or nonchalant about peace. Choose one. Neither leads to viable negotiations.

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Thursday October 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet has put together a plan to jump start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Israel officially accepted.

The Palestinians said "maybe."

Saeb Erakat, speaking on behalf of the PA, said that they will come back to the negotiating table only if Israel first stops all building in post '67 areas.

Erakat then said that negotiations must resume on the basis of the pre '67 borders.

Once again, the Palestinians have set pre-conditions to the start of the talks.

Behind the scenes, the United States is furious with the Palestinians.

Israel's far-right, hawkish foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, has never been in favor of negotiating with the Palestinians. So when Liberman began shouting about Abbas' most recent intransigence, Israelis did not take him too seriously.

It seems that Lieberman was correct.

Anyone but Abbas.

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Wednesday October 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In the aftermath of the earthquake in Turkey some very interesting issues have emerged.

Two days after the earthquake Turkey has asked Israel for aid - but only in the form of mobile homes.

Nearly 500 Turks are now dead and many more will be discovered. The cold in the Van region is bitter and people are fighting for tents and shelter and fire for warmth.

Turks are questioning the actions of their prime minister and attacking him for the decisions he has been making. There has been little central coordination and aid. AND he has rejected international assistance.

"The prime minister runs for help when it's Palestine or Somalia, sends ships to Palestine, almost goes into war with Israel for the sake of Palestinians, but he doesn't move a muscle when it comes to his own people," said Emrullah , an 18 year-old Turk from Van.

It seems that this is the consensus from the hard hit earthquake region.

The government cares more about the Palestinians than it cares about its own citizens.

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Tuesday October 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrians have recalled their ambassador to the United States.
Officially, he was recalled for "consultations."

The ambassador was recalled at a time when tensions between Syria and the United States continue to rise. For their part, the US State Department has said that there are no plans to recall their ambassador to Syria... Although US Ambassador Ford has left due to threats against his life.

Recalling an ambassador for consultations can be a diplomatic gesture or it can be an internal, very practical move. The latter is, without a doubt, the case here.

Syria needs to improve its standing in the Western world, to strategize and to unify their message.

This was neither a gesture nor a statement about the tensions between the two countries. It was a necessary, practical, move.

I expect that the ambassador will soon be returned to Washington.

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Monday October 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ron Prosor, the Israeli Ambassdor to the United Nations, offered some compelling insight yesterday.

Prosor said that Arab countries have abandoned the Palestinian Authority. He explained that the contributions of Arab countries to the Palestinian Authority amount to 20% of the PA's budget.

His point was best illustrated by saying that the entire Arab world's contribution to the Palestinian Authority amounts to about half the price of the Saudi Prince's new private luxury airplane. That is a mind boggling piece of information and insight.

When you crunch the numbers you discover that while many countries pledge monetary support to the Palestinians, the few countries that actually come through on their pledges and dole out cash and dole it out on time - are the Western democracies.

And that explains why a Congressional threat to withhold aid to the Palestinians is so powerful a threat.

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Sunday October 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ghadaffi is dead - killed, after he surrendered.

The rules of war as well as the rules of Islam require that the Libyan thug him be taken prisoner. But that is not what happened.

He was killed - murdered in cold blood.

Was this the best outcome?
Was it best to drag him, beat him and kill him or should he have been arrested and tried?

Any established democracy would respond by saying bring the tyrant to trial - but Libya was not and still is not a democracy.

Had Ghadaffi been brought to trial his trial could have been an educational tool and a historical catharsis for a country that suffered under a brutal tyrant. A public trial would have inscribed the many atrocities perpetrated by Muammar Ghadaffi on the public record.

But these Libyans were not interested in history. These Libyans were out for revenge. And that is just what they got.

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Friday October 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Samir Kuntar was quoted all over the Arabic press saying that kidnapping Shalit was a success and that more Israelis must be kidnapped.

Kuntar was himself exchanged in 2008 as part of the deal between Israel and Hezbollah that returned the dead bodies of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Kuntar was found guilty and admitted to a brutal terror attack that killed five people in 1979. The attack included the murder of four year old baby Einat Haran.

Since his release form Israel Kuntar has proclaimed the need to continue attacking and kidnapping Israelis and exploit them as leverage to gain freedom for prisoners in Israeli jails.

He is not alone. Many voices in the Arab world are calling for more kidnappings. Hamas is the first among them.

As a result of this exchange Hamas has catapulted itself way over Abbas and the Palestinian Authority in the eyes of the Arabic world.

We will see if that lasts.

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Thursday October 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian interview with Gilad Shalit was a propaganda piece. It was designed by Egypt to position themselves as central to the entire exchange. And, by extension once again, to reposition them as leaders in the Arab world.

The interviewer, Shahira Amin, is unyielding in her defense of the interview. She has said that she did not want to be a propaganda tool. She has bolstered her defense by saying that she resigned from state TV during the riots against Mubarak so as not to be part of the propaganda.

There is a serious flaw in the entire episode. Putting the questions asked of Gilad Shalit aside, putting his health aside, the flaw lies with the interview itself.

Conducting an interview, any interview, went against the agreement that Egypt signed. To complicate the issue even further, Amin claims Hamas was not involved in her interview --- but they were and the pictures prove it. Why lie?

We all know that Shalit was brought into the room by armed Hamas men. In the room itself there were only Egyptian intelligence people. They did not intervene, and neither did the Hamas men. I say this with complete authority and responsibility

http://honestreporting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/shalithamasinterview.jpg

The translator/minder was not from Hamas as has been claimed, but behind Gilad Shalit in the still picture is a Hamas man in a mask with a camera. Shahira Amin hopes that this interview will be the big break in her career and take her international. But she interviewed a captive with his captors in the room - and then lied about it.

Say what she wants, that is propaganda, not journalism.

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Wednesday October 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Gilad Shalit is alive - and that is a miracle. There was no proof of life until he walked, on his own two legs, out of the nightmare he has endured for the past five years and four months and into freedom.

For someone who has endured these long years of Hamas sponsored confinement - in solitude, in a dark closet - like hole that allowed for no sun, with almost no human interaction, he has been declared in reasonably good condition. Sunken eyes, ashen complexion, weak and extremely thin - but able to see, hear, speak and respond.

Now - as so many people are doing, compare Gilad Shalit's condition to that of the prisoners released from Israeli prisons.

The 280 Palestinians already released by Israel came out healthy, strong and feeling secure. They were given three squares a day and fresh air and sunlight. They had access to doctors and regular contact with their family. They had their day in court and then were convicted.

Ethics, morality and the Geneva Convention separate the world inhabited by Gilad Shalit and the world inhabited by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

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October 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The exchange has happened.

1 Israeli for 1027 Palestinian prisoners.

The numbers are numbing.

The lesson to be learned is crucial.

Israel made a painful and very costly deal for the life of a single citizen. The cost of letting convicted terrorists go free is enormous. Freeing even one of them makes life more dangerous for Israelis. Multiply that 1027 times.

Israelis are torn about the deal, the families of terror victims are up-in-arms.

Gazans are celebrating.

What will happen next?

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Monday October 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The deal is supposed to go through tomorrow.
I am referring to the prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas, the deal that was negotiated by Egypt and Germany.

There are many hiccups still to come and many that have already come over the past 24 hours. The deal may still breakdown. Debates and discussions and demonstrations have swelled as the time nears.

Whatever happens, it should be clearly understood that this is an extremely painful adventure, an agonizing exchange of prisoners, for Israelis.

Rabbis and ethicists line up on both sides. One side says that the life of Gilad Shalit is more important than the punishment of prisoners convicted of murder. Another side asks how is Shalit's blood redder than the blood of any other victim killed or maimed by the terrorists being released. Others say this is a clear victory for the terrorists who will have achieved their intended goal in kidnapping a soldier and holding him hostage in exchange for prisoners held in Israeli jails.

There is no simple answer.

If the release does go through one family's nightmare will end - but nothing else will change. Nothing at all.

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Sunday October 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tempers are rising in the "Occupy Wall Street Campaign."

Not just because the number of arrests have increased but because the tone has become very hateful.

I just finished watching a series of interviews with protesters and here are 2 clips from the Daily Caller

http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/07/anti-semitism-at-occupy-wall-street/

The clips depict virulent anti-Semitic feelings by the protesters.

One speaker could best be described as wild and crazed while the second is more stayed and rational in his presentation. Both are, frighteningly, filled with the echoes of medieval hatred of Jews.

Not, I repeat, not anti-Israel or anti-Zionist ideology... just outright anti-Semitism.

The film clips are edited by the Emergency Committee for Israel and are up on their front page. The Committee's board is composed of neo- con William Kristal and religious conservative leader Gary Bauer.

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Friday October 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton has told Reuters that the plan for full Palestinian membership in the UN and a declaration of Statehood is "going nowhere."

The Secretary of State said that many countries are telling the Palestinians that the formal letter presented to the Secretary General of the United Nations has not advanced their goals. She recounted that those countries are saying that dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

It appears that the momentum has swung away from the Palestinians in the Security Council. No doubt, the threat of a US veto as well as the recent vetoes by Russia and China on Syrian sanctions has left the Palestinian question quite simply - hanging.

Unlike in the General Assembly, member states of the Security Council are not likely to push a unilateral declaration knowing that in the end, it will result in nothing more than a large waste of their time in the Security Council.

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Thursday October 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In a vote of 26 for and 3 against, Israel's cabinet approved the deal with Hamas to free Gilad Shalit. Hamas has also agreed to the deal. That is no small accomplishment.

Shalit, an Israeli with dual French citizenship was kidnapped and has been held by Hamas for nearly five and half years. He is being exchanged for 1,027 prisoners.

Anything can happen - but it looks like the deal will proceed in stages.

The head of Israel's internal clandestine agency, the Shin Bet, said that 90% of the deal was agreed upon three years ago. The only real question was which prisoners would stay and which could leave their Israeli prisons.

Some of the people on the list to be freed in exchange for Shalit include terrorists involved in vicious attacks. The names of Marwan Barghouti and the terrorist responsible for the kidnapping and death of another Israeli soldier, Nachshon Wachsman, have been on and off the list too many times to count. Until all the prisoners are released, we will not know their fate.

These debates are never easy. Getting Gilad Shalit back home while he is still alive is a priority. But each and every one of the 1,027 people who stand to be released is responsible for horrific attacks against Israelis.

Yesterday Halid Mashaal, the head of Hamas, praised the deal and congratulated the squad that kidnapped Shalit. He said it was a successful operation that will lead to the release of over 1,000 prisoners.

That is the Palestinian point of view and we must never lose sight of that mindset.

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Tuesday October 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Peyman Aref is a student at Tehran University.
Aref was recently released from an Iranian prison. He was in prison after being found guilty of anti-government political activity.

Aref was lashed 74 times when he was released. It was for a completely different crime. That crime was the crime of insulting President Ahmadinejad.

Aref had written a letter to the president and did not begin in the customary manner by writing "Salaam," which means "peace upon you."

Because he did not use the proper greeting or salutation he was given 74 lashes - with a whip.

Crime and punishment in Iran are incomprehensible to the Western mind.

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Monday October 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night was deadly for Christians in Egypt. Nineteen Christians were killed and well over a hundred hospitalized from injuries caused by plain clothes and riot police.

It began when Christians gathered and marched to sit in at the
National TV building in Cairo. They were protesting the terrible burning and riots against churches in Aswan, located in southern Egypt. The riots started even though local Christian leaders agreed to take down the crosses and bells from the church, Christian symbol that had incensed Muslims in the area.

What began as a peaceful protest turned violent when locals threw rocks and shot pellets at the Christian marchers. Cars were torched and people were arrested. The night ended with a curfew instituted for all of Cairo.

Christians compose about 10% of the Egyptian population -- 8 million out of 80 million people.

Nerves are very raw right now in Egypt. At this point any little incident can set off a large explosion.

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Sunday October 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a huge increase in anti-Semitic, almost medieval, depictions of Jews and Israel in the Arabic press. This is particularly the case with editorial cartoons.

Since the UN hosted the General Assembly these cartoons have become so ugly that some of them actually parallel the infamous Nazi newspaper Der Sturmer which unabashedly depicted Jews as evil beings.
ADL ( the Anti-Defamation League) collected a significant set of the cartoons and posted them online late last week. I have pasted a link to their collection.

What is so telling is that almost all the cartoons depict Israel controlling the United States through the use of the veto they cast in the Security Council. Many smack of the conspiracy theory that says Jews control the world.

http://www.adl.org/anti_semitism_arab/cartoons-in-arab-press-demonize.asp

Remember these cartoons are current, they are not part of a historical archive, they were published just a short few days and weeks ago.

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Saturday October 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was an amazing picture on the Ynet site. It showed the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency sitting in the Israel chair.

In the photo the Iranian ambassador is joined by two aides and they are all speaking to the Irish ambassador.

CLICK ON THE GREEN:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4132525,00.html

Under normal circumstances this would not be an issue. It is here because Iranian policy is not even to mention the name of Israel no less be caught in a picture sitting in a seat with the sign in front of you reading "Israel" which Iran refers to only as the "Zionist entity."

Diplomats have been recalled, fired and publically humiliated for far less. Iranian diplomats have been recalled for being in a room with Israelis where they were photographed in the same picture or broadcast together. The policy of Iran is that there is to be neither informal nor formal interaction and no appearance of such interaction.

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Friday October 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the European Parliament yesterday. The speech was extremely problematic.

Abbas spoke about the Palestinian spring. He explained that the Palestinians must cast off the oppressive Israeli leadership and control over their own lives.

What Abbas did was to create a metaphor which is totally inappropriate. The force preventing Palestinian statehood is the lack of negotiations, not Israel's oppressive tactics.

The Palestinian president then compared the 6000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel cells to Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier being held by Hamas. That was just plain offensive.

Palestinian prisoners in Israel have beds, heat and air conditioning. They get 3 square meals a day and have access to doctors, calling time to speak to family, visits with family and even conjugal visit.

Gilad Shalit is held in a subterranean cave. He has not seen light and there has been no interaction with anyone including Red Cross since his abduction on June 25, 2006. His parents have no idea if he is even alive.

The rhetoric and the untruths, the use of metaphor and similes is just irresponsible. It is propaganda. If I were being irresponsible, I would say that Goebels would be proud.

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Thursday October 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Vice President Joe Biden hosted an annual event at the vice president's residence in honor of Rosh Hashannah, the Jewish New Year.

Biden said that "Israel is America's closest, dearest, and most morally-based friend."

Even though I would agree in many ways with the sentiment expressed by the vice president, this is just another in a series of "Biden-isms."

There are several other countries in the world that would like to claim those titles he bestowed upon Israel.

The vice president got it backwards. He should have said: "Israel and America are the closest and the dearest of friends. They are bound by a mutual sense of values and morals."
Adding the words "and the" in place of "is" makes all the difference in the world.

These speeches are matter of public record. The corrected form would not diminish the friendship between the United States and Israel. Rather, it speaks of their bond from a more mature and realistic point of view - a POV the VP should have.

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Tuesday October 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress has frozen $200 million promised as aid to the Palestinians.

Congress is holding the feet of the Palestinians to the fire. By stopping the funding Congress is saying that the Palestinians must embrace negotiations without preconditions with Israel in order to continue getting money from the United States.

The Obama administration is lobbying Congress to keep the money flowing. The White House thinks that stopping aid will do irrevocable damage to the Palestinian infrastructure.

The Palestinians, for their part, are convinced that they will continue to get the US aid.

Popular thought is that the difference in the funding would be picked up by petrol rich Arab countries. That is not clear or guaranteed.

This year alone the United States is scheduled to give $900 million to the Palestinians and only a fraction of that money will be picked up by the Saudis and other Arab countries.

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Monday October 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Vice President Biden was quoted in Saturday's New York Times as having spoken to 15 rabbis. The subject was Jonathan Pollard.

Biden told the group that President Obama was considering clemency for the convicted spy, sentenced to life in prison in 1987.

Biden reported that he advised Obama --- using the term "over my dead body" - not to allow Pollard to get out before his sentence is up.

Considering that Biden was sent by the White House to smooth over issues with the Jewish community and to pave the road for campaign funds to come rolling in, this was an unfortunate admission. .

The Pollard question is a very sensitive for the Jewish community. It has been on the table during the tenure of several presidents. The best method of dealing with the issue is to confront it directly. Biden took it to the extreme.

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Friday September 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran continues its rhetorical attack against the West.
The Iranians are making announcements and releasing proclamations designed to shake and rattle the West. Earlier this week they announced that they would be sending Iranian naval forces to the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Then Iran announced that they were transitioning into mass production of a cruise style missile - a land-to-sea, short range, highly sophisticated weapon which will bolster their defense.

Even more important than its capability is that the new weapon called the "Ghader" or the "Capable One" in Parsi is very easy to operate and will be sold to anyone with enough cash.
These are obviously just verbal games - but they are messages that should be properly understood and placed in the proper context. Then we watch patiently and re-evaluate continually.

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Thursday September 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it first. Then United States Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said it again.

They said there should be no preconditions to talks between the Palestinians and Israelis.

They said the United States does not think that a settlement freeze must be in place before talks can begin.
This was the mistake that President Obama made after taking office in January 2009.

Obama made it clear that the expected a cessation of building before talks would begin. That, in turn, gave Palestinian leadership the license they were searching for to not participate. Even after a 9 month and 1 week freeze out of a total of 10 months, the Palestinians only came back to the negotiation table to discuss extending the building freeze.

This all happened exactly. Not much has happened since.

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Wednesday September 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian navy is quoted in a report in today's IRNA (the Iranian National News Agency) saying that Iran was thinking of deploying navy ships close to the shores of the United States.

Navy Chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari is quoted as saying: "Like the arrogant powers that are present near our marine borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to American marine borders."

The head of the Iranian navy is suggesting that Iranian naval boats strike up a post on the Atlantic seaboard.
Interestingly, the US ships in the Straits of Hormuz are often actually in Iranian maritime waters.

Should the Iranians put this plan into action it would result in a serious increase in already tense relations. It would not be an act of war - provided the Iranian naval ship remained outside the boundaries and provided Iran did not harass and interfere with trade.

But this would certainly be a very aggressive move by Iran.

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Tuesday September 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is essential to lay out the threat that the US President and Congress have put to the Palestinians.

If the Palestinians pursue a unilateral declaration of statehood they will lose US funding. The Palestinians do not want to lose US funding, so that means that they must return to face to face negotiations with the Israelis.

Only by returning to the table and talking with the Israelis will the Palestinians get their nearly $1 billion in aid from the United States.

The Saudis have promised to pick up the slack - but they said that they will donate only $200 million which falls far short of what the Palestinians need.

The Palestinians are convinced that the US will not follow through with their threat to divest. They are convinced that the US will not let them starve or permit their infrastructure to crumble. The Palestinians are betting that the United States will help despite their threats not to give.

The Palestinians may be correct - but it is highly doubtful.

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Monday September 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will be joining Iran in a military operation against the Kurds.

This is not just the Turks and Iran sharing information.

This is not a drill, this is not an exercise.

This is a real military operation to attack the Kurds.

Turkey and Iran see the Kurds as a mutual enemy.

This is another very blatant example of how Turkey has turned its back on the West.

Turkey is in possession of some of the most modern, up-to-date weapons systems which Iran will now have access to.

This is earth shattering.

The potential for destruction is enormous.

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Sunday September 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas returned home to Ramallah today. Thousands of Palestinians crowded together to cheer him on for taking a stand and moving them toward statehood.

What was not heavily covered in the Arabic press was that while on the plane, just as he departed New York, Abbas rejected the proposal put forth by the Quartet to jumpstart talks with Israel.

Abbas outright rejected the Quartet's plan. I have not seen the plan itself, only partial bits and pieces that have been leaked - but from that and from previous plans and historical precedent, I can pretty much surmise what is in the Quartet proposal.

Abbas set down two pre-conditions for talks. Negotiations will not begin until all Israeli settlement building stops and until it is agreed that pre 1967 borders will be the borders.

Last year at this time there was a settlement freeze. Israel gave the Palestinians ten months with absolutely no settlement construction. And after nine months and one week and no talks, the Palestinians woke up and said they want an extension of the freeze.

At that point the Palestinian objective became crystal clear. The Palestinians wanted a settlement freeze - not negotiations. For the United States and for Israel the freeze was a tool - not a goal. For the Palestinians the settlement freeze was the goal.

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Saturday September 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions have peaked in the United Nations. Now we can begin to understand what has been happening these past few days.

It all climaxed midday on Friday when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas delivered his speech. When he reached the rostrum, Abbas was welcomed with a loud ovation. When he lifted a hard copy of the proposal for Palestinian membership the applause grew louder. There was energy in the room, almost every speaker before him had mentioned Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyau, a gifted orator, did as fine a job as anyone could have done - but he was not even in the competition.

The looming problem is how to move ahead. Each side now has some serious preconditions.

The Quartet, composed of the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, which has been deadlocked on this issue for a year, finally hammered out some suggestions to advance the face to face negotiations. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon expressed hope that the parties would heed their suggestions.

But seriously - if the UN, EU, US and Russia could not come to agreement for a year and they are objective parties, how difficult do you think it will be for the Israelis and the Palestinians.

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Friday September 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made up his mind. After reading yesterday's interview with the Palestinian press organization MAAN, there can be no doubt that the Palestinians will submit a proposal to the UN Secretary General requesting full membership in the United Nations today.

It is a proposal that will be debated by the Security Council.

US President Obama made it clear that the United States will use its veto to squash the proposal. Ambassador Susan Rice said yesterday that she expects that the debate may begin as early as next week.
It is not certain, however, that the Palestinians have the 9 votes in the Security Council to get to the point that the US will need to use its veto.

Yesterday almost every speaker at the GA said that the Palestinians deserve a state. Almost representative also spoke about the need for Israel to have secure borders and the need to restart direct negotiations.

The purpose of submitting this proposal - which will fail, is contrary to our logic. Western thought would dictate that a failed proposal will hurt rather than benefit the Palestinians ... but in the Middle East, leaders do not always do what is beneficial for their people.

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Thursday September 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

United States President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly yesterday.

The response was predictable. The Israelis loved the speech, the Palestinians did not.

The Israeli interpretation of the Obama speech is that the president of the United States really understands the issues they confront and that he outlined the US perspective, which is in tandem with the Israeli perspective.

The Palestinians saw it as a "pro Israel speech." Across the board
every response that came from Palestinian leadership was that the Obama speech was pro-Israel and that it did not at all connect to the Palestinian crisis.

Obama said that the way forward is through direct talks and negotiations. He said that votes do not create a state.

Who knows where we are going now. Abbas is scheduled to speak on Friday - you can bet that after hearing Obama speak, the Palestinians are sitting down to rework and significantly alter the Abbas speech.

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Wednesday September 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The crunch is on at the UN. The Palestinians are pushing very hard for full membership.

They have 2 hurdles to pass, the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In the Security Council the PA needs 9 votes, no vetoes.

In the General Assembly the PA needs 128 votes.
Gabon, Bosnia and Nigeria are the key to the Security Council vote. Gabon has said that they will not say anything about their intention until Friday's vote - but they will probably either abstain or vote a "no vote." Nigeria has said they will abstain. Bosnia is still up in the air.

If all this happens, the United States will not have to use their veto - the Palestinian proposal will only have gotten 6 or 7votes.
On the other hand, if everyone votes "yes" then the PA will have hit the threshold and the Unites States will have no choice but to use their veto.

Friday is the day of reckoning.

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Tuesday September 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu walked out of a UN conference on terror just as Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon stood up to speak.

This was not the first time such an insult occurred. It has become commonplace since last year's flotilla.

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are worsening.

Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Ahmet Davutoglu. The meeting lasted a full hour. According to sources a significant amount of time was dedicated to Clinton urging Turkey to mend fences with Israel.

The upshot of Clinton's comments was that at this time the region does not need any more conflict.

The argument was hardly convincing for the Turks.

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Monday September 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Question: Who is really against the proposal for Palestinian statehood?
Answer: Hamas.

The prime minister of Hamas, Ismail Haniyah, has blasted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas because Abbas never even asked for the Hamas point of view regarding statehood.

What is the Hamas point of view? Hamas rejects the idea. And because Hamas was elected in a plurality in the last election, that should be reason enough for the UN to reject the PA proposal.

The Palestinian Authority is presenting itself as "the sole representatives of the Palestinian people" and that is truly not the case. The voice of Haniyah and the Palestinians of Gaza is not being heard.

One must realize, of course, that the reason Hamas rejects statehood is because they know full well that a declaration of Palestinian statehood by the United Nations explicitly implies recognition of Israel. They know that a State of Palestine will be defined by the UN as a state next to the Jewish State of Israel.

That reality cannot be justified by Hamas. It would mean the end of their vision. And their vision, their mission, is vanquishing all of Israel and transforming everything into a Palestinian state. Hamas cannot let that happen.

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Sunday September 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are going for broke. They want to propose statehood in both the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly.

The Palestinians want full membership in the UN.

As of now the PLO is an organization and with UN observer status. The proposal or proposals is for the Palestinian State. If the Palestinians are denied statehood in the Security Council they can change their status in the General Assembly to that of state observer, a status which, while it may be shy of total membership, is still a vast improvement over their current status.

The next few days at the United Nations will a roller coaster. They will be filled with misleads, empty promises threats and more.

As for the ultimate outcome - there are too many variables, too many egos and too many secret conversations and back corridor proposals still taking place to predict.

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Saturday September 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Abbas gave a speech yesterday explaining that he was bringing the proposal for Palestinian statehood to the UN Security Council. He proclaimed that he would demand the legitimate right of the Palestinians people.

Abbas said: "We are the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and we intend to keep going until we secure full independence."

Hamas took exception to the Abbas speech especially the line about being "the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."

Hamas wants to remind people that they - Hamas, not the PA - won the plurality in the last election and that they - Hamas - control Gaza and are establishing more and more footholds in the West Bank.

Abbas is keeping his options open. He is clearly see-sawing back and forth. Does he go to the Security Council where he faces certain defeat or to the GA for overwhelming support or should he do both.

Now there is also talk of a softened draft proposal for Palestinian statehood. This soft proposal would be a theoretical acceptance of the idea of Palestinian statehood with an understanding that the details - borders, Jerusalem, refugees, will be handled later.

That softened proposal will be acceptable across the board. It will make all the players happy. Some of the observers, however, might be angered.

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Friday September 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations General Assembly 2011 has begun. Many issues await resolution. The one issue that has drawn the lion's share of attention is the call for recognition of a Palestinian state.

One Palestinian group is dead set against the proposal --- Hamas. They call the UN bid a "cosmetic move that will not lead to any results."

There are several reasons why Hamas is against the UN resolution:

# 1 Establishing a Palestinian state de-facto recognizes that Israel exists next to it, even if the borders unclear and to be determined

# 2: The Palestinian Authority never even consulted with Hamas before going public with the idea of approaching the UN

# 3: The original idea for proposing statehood in the UN came from Prime Minister Salem Fayyad who was not even elected to office but was appointed to fill what should have been the Hamas post of PM

Hamas is not in the business of accommodating on any of these issues -especially not on recognizing Israel or accepting Fayyad. These issues have prevented Hamas and the PA from coming to a power-share agreement. In May they signed a unity pact but have been stymied since.

This UN bid is just another example of the friction, tension, hostility and downright distrust that exists between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has announced that the Turkish navy will escort any future Turkish aid flotillas en route to Gaza.

This decision is a direct by product of the escalating tensions between Turkey and Israel - tensions that have been building to a crescendo as a result of the UN Palmer Report.

An action of this type would be an act of war --- an armed, foreign ship breaking a sea blockade. A not just any blockade, a blockade that the UN Palmer Report said was justified and legal.

I am not convinced that it will come to this, but the rhetoric is ratcheting up very high.

Very sharp words are coming out of Ankara.

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Wednesday September 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Zahar, one of the central leaders of Hamas, was recently quoted as saying that Hamas is considering moving their headquarters from Damascus, Syria to Cairo, Egypt.

This is hugely significant both in thought and in action.

In Damascus, under the eye of President Bashar Assad, Hamas had free reign to do as they wished - including unleashing terror, coordinating with Hezbollah and with Iran and engaging with terrorist cells across the world.

Hamas used Damascus as a base of operations because in Damascus they were safe from the international community and in Syria they had a home which identified and supported their vision.

Right now Syria is preoccupied with other issues. Freedom of movement has been curtailed and there have been several massacres of Palestinians in Syria. If they do make the move to Cairo, Hamas will be signifying that they feel safe with the Egyptians and that they are secure in the knowledge that their host will support their visions and invest in their goals.

That would be a significant shift for Egypt ... even for the new Egypt.

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Tuesday September 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Given the tremendous tensions and rhetoric that have emerged over the past few weeks between Turkey and Israel it is remarkable that Israel has been so quiet.

It all kicked into gear after the publication of the UN Palmer Report which laid blame for the flotilla on both sides and also said that Israel's sea blockade of Gaza was legal and justified.

Turkey has been on a tirade - stomping, fomenting, fuming and snorting. They have been aggressive and rattling their sabers.

Israel, meanwhile, has been impressively silent. And by being silent Israel has removed the need to engage in battle with Turkey - no PR battle, no battle of rhetoric and not even a battle of diplomacy.

Erdogan, the Turkish leader, is starting to look silly. He is spouting extremist and pretty foolish ideas. Rather than helping his cause, the leader of Turkey is taking his country down a few notches in the eyes of the Western world.

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Saturday September 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The expression "a credible and unconfirmed threat" needs to be explained and put into proper context.

A "credible and unconfirmed threat" like the threat that was brought to the attention of the public about NYC and Washington DC just prior to the 10th anniversary of 9-11, means that there is specific intelligence that identifies an area and that a plot has emerged.

The people who received the intelligence are concerned that the report is not simply a plan, but that the plan is at the level of action. In this case the three men behind the plan are already in the US.

An "unconfirmed threat" means that there is information from one very reliable intelligence source --- but only one source.

The 10th anniversary of 9-11 threat is real. The plan seems real. The dates make sense. Much of the information actually comes from the computer that belonged to Osama bin Laden.

The US must react and must protect itself. Protection was already stepped up because of the anniversary. Now the authorities are not only on very high alert, they have a direction.

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Friday September 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have officially begun the process of declaring Statehood in the United Nations and of becoming a full member state.
A formal letter has been sent by the PA to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.

In the letter they explain that their Declaration of Palestinian Statehood is an issue of human rights and self determination. They explain that this is not a question of foreign affairs or foreign relationships with the United States or with any other country. It is a question of relieving the Palestinian people's suffering.

The Palestinians are framing the issue in the context of human rights and have asked the Secretary General for support in helping to move the process along.

The problem is that the Declaration will not have a legal impact. It will be voted on by the General Assembly. The Palestinians believe that they will get 140 countries to vote in support of their Statehood making it an overwhelming majority of member support.
There is no question that this proposal will not be approved by the Security Council.

The only way for the Palestinian Authority to become a full member of the United Nations is to first have the proposal passed in the Security Council and then bring it to the General Assembly.

This vote will not only pass in the General Assembly but it will also alienate Israel and the United States as well as most other Western nations - all the countries who reject the linkage between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

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Thursday September 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan blasted Israel again yesterday. He said that Israel was not honoring their military contracts with Turkey.

Hold it ... didn't Turkey cancel all military contracts with Israel?
Evidently Erdogan is upset that Israel has in their possession 10 Heron drones which they originally sold and leased to Turkey. A service contract was included with the drones. As it happens, the drones are under service in Israel right now. And Israel is not returning them.

These drones are part of the secret weapon arsenal that Turkey keeps in order to patrol and use against the Kurds in the north and in Iraq when they threaten Turkey in their battle for independence.

Should the drones be returned to Turkey? That is an interesting international legal question.

It seems clear that the leased drones need not be returned. There is a big risk of not getting them back. The remaining drones should also remain in Israel. True, they are the property of Turkey - but at the present time there is no military agreement to facilitate the return of this very highly sensitive spy equipment.

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Wednesday September 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For years I have been explaining how the Palestinians are not united, explaining that they are perpetually at one another's throat constantly.

Here is another example of Palestinian disunity:

On August 1st both Hamas, who control Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, who control the West Bank, agreed to change their clocks to Daylight Savings Time. The change cut an hour off the long hot days of Ramadan when so many Muslims fast for the entire month.

On August 30th, at the end of Ramadan, the PA and the West Bank returned to Summer Time. Hamas in Gaza remained on DLS.

Here's the hitch: Palestinian Authority institutions in Gaza which include some universities and almost every bank in Gaza, keep West Bank time.

There is so little unity among the Palestinians that they cannot even agree on what time it is.

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Tuesday September 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday China admitted that, in July, they met with representatives of Muammar Ghadaffi to talk about supplying weapons to help Ghadaffi defeat the opposition.

The Chinese insist that that meeting did not result in weapons being transferred to Libya in order to aid Ghadaffi.

Opposition forces in Libya are livid. They know that weapons from China were sent to Algeria and from there made their way into Libya to supply and aid the strongman as he strangled Libya.

This public announcement by China will have a serious impact on diplomatic relations between the New Transitional Council, which is the new leadership of Libya, and China. The new government in Libya has said that they will not deal with China because of this weapons deal.

Get ready for much more vindictive diplomacy coming out of Libya ... Russia will probably be the next country to feel the wrath of the new Libya.

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Monday September 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel are crumbling and in crisis and diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt are on the upswing.

Relations between Egypt and Israel and Israel and Turkey are on the ropes. And then yesterday Turkey and Egypt set the groundwork for a strategic agreement. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will visit Egypt on September 12th. It is even rumored that Erdogan will visit Gaza while in the region.

These moves are extremely telling.
On the one hand: Israel is being further and further isolated and the countries that are isolating her are becoming closer and closer.

On the other hand: The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued an announcement saying that Egypt had no intention of following Turkey's lead and downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel. It said that their situation with Israel is very different from the Turkish situation with Israel.

If this was a kid's game, it would be called seesaw. But this is not a game.

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Saturday September 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt. The Palmer Report, the UN report about the flotilla, has brought about a diplomatic crisis.

Turkey has downgraded their ambassadorial status with Israel to that of Second Secretary. That means that the Turkish government has only an extremely low level diplomat handling affairs in Tel Aviv.

The Palmer Report placed serious blame on the organization that coordinated the flotilla and it also said that Israel was justified, but excessive, in defending itself. The Report recommended that Israel express appropriate regret to Turkey. Turkey, however, is not about to accept regrets, Turkey is demanding an apology.

From the philosophical and diplomatic points of view "regret" and "apology" are not synonyms. And believe me, both Turkey and Israel understand the nuance.

Regret is when you are not happy with the results. Regret is when the results may have been unintended, but the action that created the results was justified.

Apology means the entire episode was unfortunate and undesired. Apology means that any given act and the results of that act should have been avoided.

Obviously, Israel believes, as does the UN Palmer Report, that boarding the flotilla was justified and that boarding falls under the rubric of defending their borders.

Obviously, as well, Turkey disagrees.

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Friday September 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Palmer Report was made public yesterday. The report was very critical of Turkey and of the Flotilla organizers, calling them totally irresponsible. It was also duly critical of Israel.

After reading all 105 pages, I can safely say that although I disagree with several of the points within the Palmer Report, the report was honest and even handed.

The report reads: "the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade."

"Israel's decision to board the vessels with such substantial force at a great distance from the blockade zone and with no final warning immediately prior to the boarding was excessive and unreasonable."

"This included physical mistreatment, harassment and intimidation, unjustified confiscation of belongings and the denial of timely consular assistance."

And then the report advises that Israel should pay and express regret.

"An appropriate statement of regret should be made by Israel in respect of the incident in light of its consequences."

"Israel should offer payment for the benefit of the deceased and injured victims and their families, to be administered by the two governments through a joint trust fund of a sufficient amount to be decided by them."

Both the Israeli and Turkish representative were given a one page limit on which to respond.

Mr J. Ciechanover, the Israeli on the committee, disagreed with several findings. The Turkish representative, Mr S. O. Sanberk, was far more direct. He wrote : "I reject and dissociate myself from the relevant parts and paragraphs of the report, as reflected in paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii of the findings contained in the summary of the report and paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii, viii and ix of the recommendations contained in the same text."

The Palmer Report offers suggestions on how to progress from here. They recommend a committee to help move things along.

Interestingly Israel has already offered regrets ... Turkey wants a full blown apology.

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Thursday September 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohammed Al Baradei gave an interview to the Egyptian newspaper al Sharouk.

Baradei expressed anger with the current military rulers for not permitting international observers to monitor the upcoming elections.
Baradei is the former head of the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog.

He understands the importance of external supervision. He knows well that without international monitors this election will be a farce.

In the interview Baradei explains that the world has already stopped coming to Egypt - tourism has dropped totally and investors have all run away. A canned election will not convince the investors or the tourists to return.

What Baradei says makes perfect sense, but no one is willing to listen.

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Wednesday August 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Pew Research Center just came out with a study about Muslims in American. The survey is geared to coincide with 9-11 commemorations.

The objective of the study was to find out how Muslims living in the United States view America. As can be expected, some of the answers were predictable and some were surprising.

1000 US Muslims were called at their homes. This sampling represents the 2.75 million Muslims living in America of whom 1.8 million are adults and 300,000 are converts to Islam.

56% are pleased with the direction the United States has taken
76% are pleased with President Obama's performance
80% are satisfied with their lives in America
70% said they cooperate with law enforcement on an appropriate level
70% had an unfavorable view of al Qaeda.
90% voted as Democrats in 2008