Thursday May 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria, the pendulum swings almost daily.

After several weeks of momentum on the side of the Assad regime, the pendulum has begun to swing back and forth. From Assad to the rebels to Assad and now back towards the rebels.

Momentum is about "feeling." Big wins, losses, massacres - the triumphs and tragedies of war - are what cause the momentum to shift.

The rebel group al Qaeda al Nusrah captured a Syrian army base killing 40 soldiers and Assad affiliates. The base is near Nayrab which is on the road from Aleppo going west to the Mediterranean Sea.

This was a huge blow to Assad. Not just because he lost 40 soldiers but because he lost them to al Qaeda. In addition, the army base was on an extremely crucial access point.

The Syrian forces were not the best trained or the best equipped, but losing to al Qaeda was a significant psychological setback for Assad's soldiers.

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Wednesday May 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranian committee that vets candidates for president has nixed two popular people from next month's presidential elections.

Both men were expected to be disqualified. But there was still a chance that the Guardian Council, the committee that makes these decisions, would have been swayed to make exceptions.

Former president Rafsanjani was barred from running because he is simply too old. The requirements for a candidate in Iran say that you must not be older than 70. Rafsanjani is 78.

The second disqualified candidate is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. He is only 53. But Mashaei had an unfair advantage and that is why needed to be sidelined. Mashaei is very close with President Ahmadinejad and was his former chief of staff.

The kicker, or perhaps the kiss of death, was that when Mashaei went to register as a candidate Ahmadinejad accompanied him. That was in violation of Iranian election law and Mashaei could not benefit from his public association with Ahmadinejad.

The presidential field is still very large. Over the next week the few contenders will the most potential will begin to emerge.

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Tuesday May 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US President Obama spoke on the telephone with Lebanese President Suleiman yesterday.

Obama emphasized his concerns about Syria and about the possibility of the conflict spilling over into Lebanon.

He also explained that he was concerned about Hezbollah which is located in Southern Lebanon, and with their role in supporting Assad.

This is all true.

The real problem, however, emerges in that in Lebanon, Hezbollah is independent. President Suleiman has no control over Hezbollah. If anything, it is Hezbollah that has tremendous influence over Lebanon.

There is no question that Hezbollah is on Assad's side in Syria and they are fighting to help maintain his position.

Most telling is that Obama felt the need to even mention to the president of Lebanon his issues with Hezbollah.

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Monday May 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Coverage of Syria is pretty biased. It is extremely difficult to get a sense of what is actually happening.

We generally refer to the people fighting Assad as the rebels. But the situation is more complicated than mere labels. Assad and his forces are supported by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian advisers.

The rebels are composed of many groups. Some of the rebels are locals, others are foreigners. Some of the rebels are secular and others are al Qaeda.

Internal bickering between rebel groups has escalated to the point where they have now begun to fight one another. In the northern Syrian city of Aleppo rival rebel groups, both Islamic, are fighting one another. They are kidnapping each others' fighters.

A group called the Judicial Council accused the group called Ghurabaa al Sham of robbing their factories. And now, after about a week of fighting, both groups have taken prisoners.

This is just the beginning. It is highly unlikely that tensions will scale down between the two groups.

Assad is taking advantage of the internal feuding. Assad's forces, together with Hezbollah, began a major offensive with the support of jets and helicopters. The plan is to start taking back strategic areas in the north around Aleppo. These rebels are playing right into his hand.

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Sunday May 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syria has set its highly advanced and extremely accurate Tishreen surface-to-surface missiles on standby. And they are aimed at Tel Aviv.

Assad has put the alert command into place. Syria is to launch the missiles immediately after getting the command.
All this is in this morning's Sunday Times of London.

On Saturday, Clarin, an Argentinian newspaper, published an extremely rare interview with Syrian President Bashar Assad saying that the rebels are getting intel and support from Israel.

He said:
"Israel is directly supporting the terrorist groups in two ways, firstly it gives them logistical support and it also tells them what sites to attack and how to attack them. For example, they attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defenses, which can detect any plane coming from overseas, especially from Israel."

There are two reasons for this important declaration.

First, is to try to isolate the rebels by saying that they are being aided by arch enemy Israel. Second, is to justify a Syrian strike against Israel. Israel has already attacked Syria three times and in doing so they are aiding the force which is dedicated to ousting his regime.

This new status makes the already unstable regional atmosphere even more combustible.

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Saturday May 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

United States Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Israel next week.

Expectations have dropped since I first wrote about this impending visit three weeks ago.

The plan has not changed, Kerry with attempt to breathe new life into an old and dead interaction.

Kerry has two agendas to carry out on this quick trip. He will visit Israelis in Jerusalem and meet with Palestinian leadership in Ramallah. He will attempt to sit them down - face to face.

Before arriving in Jerusalem, Kerry will visit Amman, Jordan.

There he will meet with some of the Syrian opposition groups. It is very difficult to meet with the rebel groups of Syria because each one has different loyalties – but none of them are pro-Western.

Kerry believes this trip will have substance to it. I think if will be a lot of fluff.

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Tuesday May 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just returned from China. And today he is off on a very quick trip to Moscow where he will meet with Vladimir Putin.

On this trip only a few aides will join him. His wife and driver, part of his usual entourage, will not be traveling along on this one.

The purpose of the trip is to try to stop Putin from supplying Syria with missiles. Which missiles is still yet unknown. Russia has already delayed the delivery of certain weapons. But Israel would obviously prefer that the deals all be cancelled.

How does Russia justify their selling weapons to Syria? Simple, they want to prevent what happened in Libya from happening in Syria. In Libya, if you recall, a no fly zone called by the United States was used to justify ousting Ghadaffi.

With these weapons it would be very difficult for the United States to fly and attack. Obviously it would also be hard for Israel to fly over Syria and attack. But that does not concern Russia.

Russia wants to help make certain that Syria remains secure and that Assad stays in position without external forces invading. That is their bottom line.

Netanyahu will have to use every diplomatic trick and economic incentive he has to persuade Russia to back off on supplying these missiles to Syria.

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Monday May 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and the US are planning an international conference about Syria. Their objective is to bring the conflict to an end.

The Syrian government in exile, known as the Opposition, is not certain that they will attend. They have been plagued with problems despite succeeding in electing a prime minister, Ghassan Hitto.

The Opposition will meet in 10 days in Turkey to discuss, debate and decide whether they will or will not attend. The reality is that despite their name, Opposition members will have no power in the meeting and no ability to garner power within Syria. And yet - they still may be given control by the United States. Ceremonial, figure head control rather than actual political and military.

Iran has announced that they are in favor of the international meeting and would volunteer to be the intermediary between the regime and the rebels. The problem with that gracious suggestion is that Iran has not been invited to the conference.

The United States does not want Iran at the conference. But in reality, it is Iran - not the United States - together with Russia that really has the power to broker a deal in Syria.

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Sunday May 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported today that the death toll in Syria has topped 80,000.

That 80,000 number should not come as a surprise. The Observatory is a British based pro-rebel - anti regime group.

According to the report, half of those killed have been civilians.

Now the math gets important. Of the 40,000 non civilians killed almost all have been rebels. Take away 10% of that number and you have 4,000 regime soldiers killed in the conflict. That means that 36,000 rebel fighters have been killed.

That is, if the 40,000 number is correct. Whatever the exact number is, many more rebels have been killed than regime soldiers. And that continues to be the case. Intelligence sources say that several thousand foreign fighters cross the border into Syria every month replacing the several thousand that were killed.

To prove the point of The New York Times ran a picture of a Chinese rebel fighting against the regime.

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Saturday May 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A huge anti-Israel protest, coordinated by the Muslim Brotherhood was organized in Cairo, Egypt yesterday.

It was the first anti-Israel rally of this size since Morsi was elected president of Egypt. Ostensibly, the reason for the protest was to voice opposition to Israel's strikes against Syria.

Placards, signs and banners pronounced Death to Israel. Israeli flags were burned and the crowd shouted "Liberate Palestine from the sons of monkeys and pigs." "We will chant it over and over, Israel is our enemy. " "The people want Israel destroyed."

This was a direct attack against Morsi. It was a show of displeasure.

The Muslim Brotherhood is saying that Morsi and Egypt has become too close to Israel. The message is that Egypt must pull back and defend Muslims.

The sentiment being echoed on Arabic Op-Ed pages is that the Arab world was silent after Assad murdered, actually massacred, over 300 Syrians in Banias. But now Iran, Turkey and Egypt are voicing displeasure over the Israeli strikes which did more damage to the Assad regime than anything that has happened to the Syrian leader in the past two years.

How ironic. The only country keeping Bashar Assad in check is Israel.

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Friday May 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Church of Scotland released a 10 page paper challenging the right of Israel to their ancient land.

The essence of their statement is that the Bible should not be used to resolve political conflicts. According to the Church of Scotland: biblical "promises about the land of Israel were never intended to be taken literally."

This is indeed explosive.

It can be easily said that both Jews and Muslims have competing textual claims to the Holy Land. In both great works extremely important events take place in the land. To say that what is written in the Bible is not to be taken literally is more than to belittle the Bible, it is downright blasphemy. And blaspheme according to Christian standards, not just Jewish standards.

Is the Bible now to be understood as a metaphor and not as the foundation stone of Judaism and Christianity?

There is little question that understanding the Bible requires many layers of analysis. The test of Abraham and the and the binding of Isaac in Genesis 22 which takes place in Salem, or, Jeru Salem is one of the most powerful pieces in all of religious literature.

On every level that story must be understood as a covenant between the progenitor of the Hebrew people and God who no longer desires human sacrifice. To remove that story from Jerusalem and remove the covenant between God and Abraham is to destroy the essence of the monotheism.

The test was not an accident. The chosen location was not serendipitous. It is the foundation of monotheism. That is why the Temple of Solomon was built on that spot and why, at the center of that Temple rests the Foundation Stone - at the place where Abraham bound Isaac, the place where the angel intervened and prevented the father's sacrifice of his son.

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Thursday May 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt yesterday President Morsi signed the Sukuk into law.
Sukuk is the equivalent of Islamic investment bonds. If all goes as planned, Morsi may have just begun to create a system that will enable Egypt to sell and raise money for the development of the nation.

Islamic law, known as Shaaria, rejects the concept of interest so normal fixed market bonds are not permitted.

Money cannot produce money. It can only be used as a measurement of value. So, simple interest is shunned. So too are credit cards, most other conventional uses of money and other interest payments. It is permitted to rent and it is permissible to get paid for services.

There is a very important aspect of Sukuk called Maslaha. Maslaha is when there is overwhelming public need and hence the money may be used and invested to create a larger collective good. By creating an aspect of public need in the bond, one can mitigate the potential investment loss.

And that is a method of creating a kosher Sakk (the singular of Sukuk.)

Hopefully this new law will permit Egypt the basics and they will pull themselves up and out of a serious economic crisis.

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Wednesday May 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian President Bashar Assad met with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi yesterday. At the press conference following the meeting Assad said that Syria will deal with Israel.

What most interested me was his comments about the new resistance front which will be the Syrian Golan.
"Resistance" is code for fighting Israel.

Not long ago Assad pulled his forces from the Golan in order to bolster his forces in Damascus. He let al Qaeda and Hezbollah battle it out for control of the heights. But now, over the past week, Assad has sent his forces back into the Golan to confront al Qaeda.

Since the momentum has shifted in general in the battle between the rebels and the regime, Assad has become far more cocky. Even the Israeli strike against his advanced weapons seems not shaken him or deterred his rhetoric.

It is certainly clear that Iran is solidly behind Bashar Assad. That might be the added psychological edge he needed.

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Tuesday May 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One might assume that the Arab and Muslim world are up in arms about Israel's strike against Syria. But the opposite seems to be the case - with several exceptions.

The blogosphere is full of people condemning the Arabic world and their leaders. Here is an example of what is being said:
"Thanks to Israel. Shame on the Arab and Muslim leaders." This blogger is saying that the only force in the world attacking Syria and protecting Syrians from Assad, is Israel.

"The Egyptian President's Office condemns the Israeli attack in Syria… Did you hear any condemnation from it for the Banias massacre?" In Banias possibly over 300 people were murdered last week by Assad's cronies and there was absolute silence.

"I'm for the resistance (the Arab name for the armed struggle against Israel) and want it to win, but I'm confused."

"Only Iran loyalists object to the Israeli attack and condemn it, since they're afraid for Iran's allies such as Hezbollah and Assad, not because they hate Israel." This happens to be true. Loyalists condemn the attacks saying that Israeli is siding with the rebels. And that makes people uncomfortable.

It is clear that no Arab force has even thought to challenge Assad in the way the Israelis did with precise rocket attacks striking at the regime’s armaments stockpiles.

I am not surprised by the reaction of the Arab world. I am deeply surprised that the West has not even covered this. That shows just how little the West understands the region and the conflict.

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Monday May 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yes, in the course of 48 hours Israel struck Syria twice and targeted very specific sites.

All day today people have asked me if the strikes are connected to Assad's use of chemical weapons. The answer is flatly NO.

Even asking the question assumes that the major motivating force behind the action is seen in the context of a US issue - in this case the RED LINES that President Obama laid out last year.
Israel struck Syria because it was essential for their - ISRAELI - security.

Israel has a very sophisticated anti missile defense shield. It is a combination of the Arrow, the Patriot and the Iron Dome.

However there is a saturation point. And this was seen in the last conflict with Hamas in Gaza. At the time Israel was able to intercept a significant amount of the rockets - but some got through simply because of the sheer numbers that were launched.
Syria has a significant amount of very dangerous missiles as does Hezbollah. The transfer of SA-17s, Fatah-110s and SCUD-D's to Hezbollah or even receiving any more arms within Syria would be a game changer.

The SA-17 and the Fatah-110 are extremely dangerous. The SA-17 is a Russian battery designed to down fighter jets. It would be very threatening for Israeli aircraft and could hinder an Israeli air force strike against Hezbollah or Syria. The fact that these weapons were being transferred, that they were taken out of storage to be moved into Lebanon, meant that Israel had to act. The Fatah 110 has a range of 250 miles and can strike anywhere in the entire north of Israel.

Israel needed to prune the trees. They needed to reduce the amount of long range, highly sophisticated, missiles that could be used against them. That was the reason for Friday's attack.

The reason for Sunday's attack was to strike at the SCUD - D's.
These rockets have a huge range and if launched, could hit anywhere in Israel. Again Israel has a defense against most of these weapons - but the threshold was crossed and the sheer numbers of weapons to be used against Israel needed to be reduced.

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Sunday May 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Within two days Israel has twice struck targets in Syria. The fact that Israel is not confirming the strikes is normal and not a serious issue.

What is very important is that these strikes, one on Friday morning and one on Sunday morning, speak of a plan with a larger objective - not simply a onetime aerial strike.

Identifying the exact targets of the strikes has been more difficult.
If Friday morning's air strike was undertaken only to prevent game changing rockets from moving into Hezbollah control, which is a modest objective, why strike again on Sunday?

The Sunday attack came because the message that Israel was sending out on Friday was not heard by the Syrians. It looks like the target of the Sunday attack was an airport near Damascus, a storage and transfer site.

There has been much guessing about whether Israel crossed Syrian airspace to carry out these missions. The problem with that theory is that the Russians are in control of the space. There are ample methods of attack by missiles that do not put Israeli pilots and planes at risk.

One method would have been to fly over Lebanon. The other option is use smart bombs like the "Popeye." The Popeye can be shot dozens of miles away from the target. It hugs the ground. That could easily have been the choice of weapon.

Further details will emerge - with time.

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Saturday May 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Mitsubishi of Japan and Areva SA, the French energy company, just signed a $22 billion deal to build a nuclear power plant in Turkey on the Black Sea. The construction should be complete in 10 years.

For Turkey this is a watershed. The Turks spent $60 billion last year experimenting and trying to come up with alternatives that would break their energy dependence. This deal was one of the conclusions they came to.

The biggest problem is that all but two of the nuclear plants in Japan are closed. They are all getting overhauled as a result of the 2011 Fukushima meltdown.

That aside, for Turkey this could create a real sense of energy stability despite the fact that there will be no results from the nuclear plant, no improvement and absolutely no energy for at least a decade.

On that time, by that time there may be a better, safer and cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

Only time will tell. From the perspective of Turkey, the government is proactively addressing the problem - and that is always a positive.

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Friday May 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Tzipi Livni and Shlomo Molocho are in Washington, DC. They are, respectively, Israel's minister in charge of the peace process and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chief special negotiator.

Livni and Molcho are in DC to follow up on meetings held last week between Arab League representatives and Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joe Biden. For the first time ever leaders of the Arab League suggested that they would support land swaps with Israel. That is revolutionary.

I do not think that Bibi is too very happy about the suggestion, but none the less, he must move on it.

Hamas is not too happy either. The official response given by Ismail Haniyeh, the PM in Gaza, was: "Palestine is not land for sale, exchange or purchase." Khaled Mashaal, the international head of Hamas, rejected the idea outright.

Who is pleased? The United States. And many Israelis are excited, even if there is only a minute possibility that a land swap might actually happen. Even the suggestion of a land swap by the Arab League is a sign of flexibility on issues of land and borders - flexibility that has never before been shown towards Israel by leaders of the Arab world.

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Thursday May 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking.

Bashar Assad made a rare public appearance yesterday. The last time the leader of Syria was seen in public was March 30th.

In celebration of May Day Assad visited the Damascus electric power station.

May Day is about unions, socialism and Marxism. It is a long stretch from all that to the Bathist government of Syria. But when you are fighting a brutal, drawn out, civil war like the one Assad is fighting embracing May Day - if only to help gain support of the socialist and the workers - seems like a good idea.

Assad needs to show that he is still engaged and still on top on things.

Assad must make periodic public appearances to show that he is not
afraid.

Assad needs to give the impression that he is maintaining control.
Even if it is all a facade.

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Wednesday May 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's northern border is extremely tense.

The border Israel that shares with Southern Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah and is in crisis. Civil war rages along the border that Israel shares with Syria. And so Israel called up 2,000 reservists and they are now conducting maneuvers and drills in the north of Israel.

The dangers are great. There have already been numerous cross border incursions.

Explaining the thinking behind the drills Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu said:
"Israel watches with keen interest and concern the latest developments in Syria and Lebanon."
"Syria is breaking down and Lebanon is unstable. Both places posit considerable threats to Israel's security."
"Syria represents two direct threats."

Israel needs to call up reservists for two reasons. Reason # 1 is to send out the message that Israel is prepared and has the resources and power. Reason # 2, and it is a more important reason, is to train the reservists so that they have the experience in the event of a real battle.

Which we hope will not come, but very well might.

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Tuesday April 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is about to receive their 5th Dolphin Series submarine. It is one of the most sophisticated weapons in the world and one of Israel's secret weapons.

The sub is built by Germany and was modified to meet Israel's specifics requests. A ceremony took place with leaders from both Germany and Israel congratulating themselves on the completion of the sub.

They also agreed to - and are now working on, a 6th sub which will be completed in 2017.

The sub will arrive in Israel in the near future and get an even greater soup up. It will be made into an even more superior weapon and Israel will strip all the elements that would permit Germany to track it.

The 5th Dolphin Series sub it is one of Israel's most expensive weapons.

They can stay underwater indefinitely. They are extremely quiet and do not give off any ping. They are practically a stealth weapon under the sea. They are armed with numerous weapons including nuclear missiles. And their conventional weapons can hit almost anywhere in the world without being detected.

These Dolphin Series submarines are a real game changer.

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Monday April 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Continuing the theme of feel good news in the Middle East, a story about how Israel is helping people from other countries feel good - literally.

Just yesterday Israel approved a request for three Iraqi children to be brought to Wolfson Medical Center in Holon for treatment.

The children are aged 1, 4 and 5. They will be treated for heart ailments and hopefully, they will be cured. This program has treated over 3,000 children from 44 countries. Since 2004 they have treated over 180 children from Iraq - and 50 of those children were treated in the past two years.

Israel has also taken in and treated at least seven Syrians hurt in their civil war. The number of Syrians treated in Israeli hospitals is probably much greater, but privacy and security issues do not allow Israel to release more details.

This is remarkably altruistic. This is what Israel does, quietly saving the lives of people in need, even people who come from behind enemy lines.

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Sunday April 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

We spend so much time hashing and rehashing the problems of the Middle East and the threats that emerge and subside in the region that I thought it would be nice to focus on a nice cultural event that will take place this summer, in Israel..

Burt Bacharach will perform one concert in Israel on July 2. The concert will take place in the city of Binyamina.

This will be the first visit of Bacharach to Israel. It is inevitable that the concert will be a huge hit.

Bacharach, who turned 85 in March, is still very spry and very sprite. He is without a doubt one of the greatest song writers in modern history. His greatest works include "What the World Needs Now Is Love Sweet Love" and "Walk On By."

Tickets to the concert cost about $100. Only a few thousand Israelis can attend this kind of event, but the entire country with get a tremendous psychological lift from Bacharach's appearance and concert. It will be all over the internet, on TV and radio and multi picture spreads and articles in the international press.

When international stars come to Israel it is a vote of recognition for the country and Israelis yearn for and thrive on that recognition.

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Saturday April 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

King Abdullah II met with President Obama in the White House yesterday.

It was very productive and useful meeting. The main topic was Syria. Of course there were two different perspectives on how to protect Jordan and on what Jordan can do to help the US.

King Abdullah is a very much at home in DC. He is a Georgetown graduate and has spent decades in the United States. But he should not be deceived by the friendly White House reception and the apparent symbiosis.

In the eyes of the White House Abdullah is just like Mubarak and just a little better than Assad and Ghadaffi. That means that the United States will use and exploit Jordan and will not hesitate to throw the King of Jordan under the bus when it is convenient. They will do exactly what they did to Mubarak.

Interestingly, Al Qaeda has set their sights on Abdullah. They want him out just like they want to Assad out.

Abdullah knows that there are real threats to his monarchy. And he knows that, right now, one of the most stable and responsible allies he has is Israel.

His enemies are counting on the US to abandon Jordan.

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Friday April 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Reuters ran an interview with Iran's deputy nuclear negotiator. His name is Ali Bagheri.

In the interview Bagheri explains that Iran is now ready to move forward and negotiate with the West. He says that Iran is awaiting EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton's phone call.
About Uranium enrichment Bagheri said that Iran's 20% uranium enrichment was for research reactors only.

"We produce 20% uranium to provide fuel for Tehran's research reactor, also four other reactors in four different parts of Iran which are under construction. With this in mind, plans have been drawn up to convert 20% uranium to 20% oxide."

That makes a total of 5 nuclear reactors working with 20% enriched uranium. Converting it to oxide powder is very positive and encouraging. Once the uranium is converted to oxide it cannot be reconverted.

Sounds good, but was he speaking the truth? Iran is great at spin.

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Thursday April 25, 2013

I'm Predicting:

If there is one thing for certain it is that both sides in the Syrian battle have staying power.

And it looks as if, barring some colossal military maneuvering, the battle will continue to be waged. Game changers would be Assad becoming even more brutal and using more of his heavy weapons or the rebels getting access to more and better weapons.

Over the past few weeks the rebel forces have shown us that they do have a handful of very accurate and extremely potent anti tank weapons. They have the ATGM, the anti tank guided missile. That was their weapon of choice in fights around Damascus.

The ATGM has the potential to change the balance of the Syrian battle and even the outcome of the conflict. The guided missile is a point-and-shoot, error proof system. And it destroys tanks.

Part of Assad's strength until now has been that his tanks, helicopters and fighter jets advance at free will. There was no real response to them. That has changed. Now Assad's tanks cannot move at will. And when stationary, they are sitting ducks and easy targets for the ATGM.

There's more. Because the rebels have the ATGM Assad cannot relocate his tanks to other locations where they might be needed. On the open road or flatbeds they can be picked off with apparent ease.

But here's the problem for the rebels. It seems that they only have a handful of ATGMs. If they had more, they would use them.

The ATGM weapons are made by the Russians and by the United States. It is unlikely that the Russians gave them to the rebels. But the rebels could have bought them from a secondary source. The Americans cannot sell them to the rebels but it s possible that the CIA gave them to a group who gave them to the rebels as an experiment.

Either way, if more ATGMs appear in the battle field expect Assad to respond with even greater and more brutal force.

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Wednesday April 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The European Union has lifted their ban against importing Syrian oil.

Of course, there are still conditions to be met before allowing Syrian oil into the European market. The oil must come from fields controlled by Syrian rebels fighting to oust the Assad regime.

It makes sense. This way, the rebels can their own raise capital and buy whatever they need in order to fuel their fight against Assad.

News outlets around the world are touting this as a brilliant move. It would be - if only all of the pieces were actually true.

It is true that since December of last year most of the oil fields and pumping wells In Syria have been taken from Assad and they are now under the control of the rebels.

But the rebels that control the oil fields in Syria are al Qaeda rebels. So what the EU has done is allow al Qaeda the ability to sell oil to Europe. And that is, to say the least, extremely dangerous.

Allowing al Qaeda that kind of access to Europe with something as vital as oil and then giving them the proceeds is tantamount to a death wish for Europe.

There is no doubt that ousting Assad is a priority for most of Europe. But intentionally helping al Qaeda? That cannot have been on the EU agenda. If it is, then God help us all. I hope it was just a big, awful mistake - that will be rectified.

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Tuesday April 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Le Figaro is one of the most responsible newspapers published in Europe. The paper, which is published in Paris, exposed a scoop which, if true, signals a real regional game changer for the Middle East.

Le Figaro published a story claiming that President Obama convinced Jordan to permit Israel use of their air space in order to gather intelligence from Syria. The paper wrote that Jordan is even permitting Israel use of their air space to launch attacks against the Syrians.

This is no small feat. Not very often does an Arab country make the decision to permit the Jewish Western country carte blanche to fly over and above them in order to access Syria.

Obviously, Jordan wants to oust the Assad regime. The United States has also gone on record saying that they want Assad ousted. But Israel does not want to take sides in the conflict .

What Israel and friends of Israel should want is a stable government in Syria. Stable countries build a stable region. Israel knows that.

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Monday April 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next month, in May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to make his first trip to China.

This is a very important trip for the prime minister. Netanyahu has tried to visit China on an official trip on numerous occasions - both in his first term, his second term and now his third term as PM.
China is the key to many world issues and if Israel can form an alliance with China, any type of alliance, it will propel them along the road to great success.

Israel views China as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. China is the fastest growing economy in the world and it needs and would greatly benefit from the exciting R&D and technology that Israel is creating.

Economically, Israel wants to open more trade with China. They want to develop more technological and scientific agreements with China. Politically, Israel wants to try to convince China of the dangers presented by Iran.

Now China has its own agenda. The Chinese want to pressure Israel to make more concessions on the peace front with the Palestinians. And the Chinese will enjoy teasing the United States by dangling potential deals in front of Israel.

Hopefully, there will be no missteps or mishaps between now and May and the trip will go on as planned. But in the Middle East, you never know what might happen.

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Sunday April 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There are many parallels between the Boston Marathon double bombing and the terror that plagues Israel.

Interestingly, some of the doctors in the Boston hospital made the same comparison - because they are Israelis or were Israeli trained.

YNET, the Israeli online paper of Yediot Ahronot, ran a spectacular piece featuring the Director of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Kevin Ilan Tabb. Tabb did his medical training and residency at Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. He is now on the hospital board.

Tabb said the head of their ER is Israeli and they have several other Israeli doctors in the emergency room. There is no doubt that they have a lot of experience with this kind of terror specific trauma.

The hospital director indicated that the two most difficult components in treating patients after terrorist attacks is admitting so many emergencies at one time and treating victims lying in beds right next to the terrorists in their beds.

Medical professionals try to save whoever comes through the door. But the families of the victims are most often far less compassionate.

If you had any doubt before this horrific, brutal and uncivilized act, it should be clear now. The West, especially Israel and the United States, have much to learn from one another - and they are linked inextricably, if only because their enemies unite them.

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Saturday April 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The brothers who perpetrated the Boston Marathon bombings proved an important axiom of terror and the prevention of terrorist acts.

The most dangerous and the most difficult acts of terror to prevent are those perpetrated by terrorists who are religiously and ideologically committed to their mission. In the United States that includes those who are culturally and socially assimilated.

If there are others out there like these two brothers it will be almost impossible to intervene before they reach their targets. And there are others out there like them, that is a certainty. The only chance we have is that to secure soft targets and catch the perpetrators after they have committed their terrorist acts.

These brothers are a combination of the consummate sleeper cell and the crafty lone wolf.

They waited and planned this attack and all the while they were totally off the grid. They arranged an escape plan and even had alternative plans. They clearly strategized on how to inflict the most harm at the end of the race. And they knew how to strike at and destroy families waiting for their loved ones to cross the finish line. They knew their prime targets would be waiting for them a full three hours after the winners crossed the line. The terrorists were not interested in the race winners, usually foreign, professional, marathon runners.

The Boston Marathon terrorists did not need to be part of a larger group. They were a group. That is why no police, no intelligence team, no counter terrorism unit, could infiltrate them.

The lessons taught by these brothers will be taken to heart by other would be terrorists. The lesson we must learn is not to let fear rule our lives.

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Friday April 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Next week the foreign minister of Azerbaijan will visit Israel for 3 full days. This is a significant diplomatic event on many levels.

It is significant in that Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation. 95% of Azerbaijan is Muslim. Of that 95%, 85% are Shiites and 15% are Sunnis. Azerbaijan has the second largest population of Shiite Muslims after Iran. They have more Shiite Muslims than Iraq.
Another positive, significant element is that Azerbaijan is the 20th largest producer of oil in the world. The country is in the top 10 in untapped reserves.

Until now Israel and Azerbaijan have had a wonderful relationship, albeit at a relatively low level. There is great potential here. The mutual benefits and exchanges that can emerge from this relationship can and should extend to economic, technological and military arenas.

I have saved the best for last. The most significant element of the visit is this: Azerbaijan borders Iran's northern limits. Israel has on several occasions run air force maneuvers in Azerbaijan. And a significant part of the native language spoken in northern Iran is - Azerbaijani.

Azerbaijan has access to Iran the likes of which no other country has.

Imagine: one of Israel's up and coming friends is a Shiite Muslim country. That is revolutionary. And it is very useful.

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Thursday April 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Grand Leader The Ayatollah Khamenei condemned the terror attack in Boston. He said that Islam rejects the murder of innocent people and children. But he also condemned what he referred to as hypocrisy of America.

Look at the statements Khamenei made yesterday to a convention of army commanders and Basij leader. These quotes are from FARS, an official Iranian news service.

"In compliance with the logic of Islam, the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes and condemns any kind of explosion and killing of innocent people no matter it takes place in the United States' Boston or in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria."

"The attitude of America and others who allege to be supporters of human rights towards the killing of innocent people is contradictory and we, thus, believe that the United States and the front standing against the Islamic Republic of Iran are irrational."

"What kind of logic is this that if children and women in Afghanistan and Pakistan are killed by Americans and if the terrorists supported by the US, the West and the Zionists cause catastrophes in Iraq and Syria, it wouldn't matter, but if a blast takes place in the US or a western country, then the whole world should pay the price for it."

Khamenei's biting critique of the US and it policies explains, in part, why Iran and her allies believe that the United States and the West is misunderstanding Iran and the rest of the world.

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Wednesday April 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As time passes more and more information will emerge about the Boston twin bombings.

There are several important points that need to be mentioned, information that will help analysts as they study this terror attack.

The placing of the bombs shows great knowledge of the Boston Marathon. There is no doubt that the perpetrators had internal local knowledge of the marathon:

Whoever placed the bombs knew that people come to see their loved ones cross the finish line and thousands revolve in and out after the actual marathon winners, often non-Americans, cross the finish line.

Whoever placed the bombs knew that backpacks and food bags would be scattered and strewn all over the ground and go unnoticed and unreported.

The second bomb would have been even more devastating had it been placed closer to the first and delayed by another 30 seconds. More people would have been targeted - those already in the area and those who rushed in to help.

The explosions were very small. The bombs were very rudimentary. The small flash explosion and the plume of smoke told the story of a small amateur bomb.

We have to look at this attack with a more global eye. This bombing is similar to Middle East bomb attacks. But one can find the recipes on line - it does not mean that the bomber/s were from the Middle East.

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Tuesday April 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey tried, convicted and sentenced a world class concert pianist named Fazel Say to 10 months in prison. His crime was tweeting.
Actually, it was what he said in his tweets. His tweets were disrespectful to Islam.

The pianist, who has played with symphonies around the world including NYC, poked fun at the Muslim call to prayer. The call is only 22 seconds long. Say suggested that maybe the Muslim men were running to their mistresses or running to grab a Raki, a type of licorice alcoholic drink.

This all takes place in the supposedly democratic state of Turkey. And this is not the first time where people in Turkey who challenge or make fun of established tradition are imprisoned.

As Westerners we must remember that even the most democratic of Muslim states - like Turkey, is still a Muslim state.

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Monday April 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is celebrating 65 years of independence. Sixty-five years ago not even the greatest idealists, the most fervent Zionists, could have imagined the State of Israel as it is today.

Technology, medicine, bio tech, food, music, drama, poetry, film. There is almost no field in which Israel has not had a profound impact or made a generous, vital contribution.

In 1948 the Jewish population of Israel was 600,000. Today, in 2013, the Jewish population is 6,042,000. The total population of Israel today is over 8 million people, There are 1,658,000 Arabs living in Israel, about 20% of the total.

Six million is a special number for the Jewish people. The juxtaposition of the 6 million Jews who died in the Holocaust with the six million Jews now living in Israel is enormously important.
It is a watershed.

It can be said that it has taken 65 years to catch up to the loss of Jewish lives at the hands of the Nazis and their mass murder machine. There were many who thought it impossible. But miracles do happen.

Israel at 65 is the proof.

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Sunday April 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Salam Fayyad resigned. Fayyad was prime minister of the Palestinian Authority since June 2007.

Fayyad's departure will be a blow - it will affect almost everything PA related.

Salam Fayyad was the force behind economic growth and planning in the PA. Actually, when Yasser Arafat originally brought him in to manage the finance ministry, Fayyad reformed the entire civil service insisting on direct deposit. Before that Arafat used to pay people by doling out cash filled envelopes.

Fayyad resigned because the tensions between his vision and Abbas' vision were just too great, too untenable, to breach.

The relationship between Abbas and Fayyad came full circle. Abbas originally appointed Fayyad to the position of prime minister after Hamas leader Ismail Hayyineh was duly elected by the people in 2007. Abbas could not possibly tolerate having a Hamas leader as PM so he appointed Fayyad instead.

That move caused Hamas to secede and then respond by ousting the PA from Gaza in a coup. Ever since then, Fayyad's presence has been one of the most critical objections Hamas has had in uniting with the Palestinian Authority.

Salam Fayyad was THE address for all Western diplomats. He was a major voice for moderation and Western influence. Now that voice and that moderating presence is gone.

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Saturday April 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security services, just announced that since the start of 2013 there have been 33 attempted kidnappings of Israeli soldiers.

That is huge.

According to the report, there were only 24 attempts to kidnap soldiers during all of 2012. The reason the Shin Bet gives for this rise in attempts to kidnap soldiers is that, in the eyes of the kidnappers and of the enemies of Israel, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit was a resounding success.

Hamas and others saw the Shalit kidnapping as a vehicle through which they could exploit Israel and free many of the prisoners serving time in Israeli jails for crimes committed in Israel and against Israelis.

For Hamas, kidnapping Israeli soldiers is a weapon more effective than any other - more effective even than rockets and terrorist attacks. With a successful kidnapping Hamas brings the entire "Zionist nation" to its knees. Hamas feels that with a kidnapping they are able to ask Israel for almost anything.

So, just as Hamas has intensified its efforts to kidnap Israelis, Israelis have increased their defenses to protect their soldiers and uncover these terror cells.

Thankfully, so far, Israel has been more effective than Hamas.

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Friday April 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

US President Barack Obama met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon yesterday. Ban Ki Moon said that he had hoped that the Middle East peace process would get momentum from the trip President Obama took to the region.

Obama said that there is a "window of opportunity for peace."

Use of the term "window" is, by now, a cliche.

For years the Obama administration, and almost every other Western leader and their administration, shouted about the dire need to find a resolution in the Middle East before the "window" of opportunity closes.

But it has not closed. The entire metaphor is wrong.

The sides - Israel and the Palestinians - are not prepared for peace. You cannot push and prod them into peace. That said, it would, at the very least, be nice to have them sit down at a negotiating table. This week, Israel was asked to take steps that would encourage and entice the Palestinians to come to the table.
Israel responded: "Absolutely no!"

But now the Israelis have said that they are stopping settlement construction. Will that bring the Palestinians to the table?

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Thursday April 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Qatar just promised to give Egypt another $3 billion. That is on top of the $5 billion that they already gave. Libya also promised to give $2 billion in support.

Egypt is in bad need of cash.

The Egyptian economy is failing. The IMF is in negotiations with Egypt about creating important economic guidelines in order to make them eligible for an IMF loan of $4.8 billion. The economy cannot grow without the money. They need it to create new industry, new jobs and to stimulate new investments.

But despite the effort to help them, Egyptians harbor real resentment toward the IMF and toward the demands they are making in order to receive the loan. Egypt does not want to put the safeguards and processes that the IMF is suggesting into place. And the Islamic parties do want Egypt to take a loan outside of Sharia, Islamic law.

The money from Qatar and Libya is critical, Egypt needs a back up in case, in the end, they do not receive the IMF money.

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Wednesday April 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain has just declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization. This is a huge statement.

Bahrain is now the first Arab country to call Hezbollah what it is. More Arab countries will soon join the club.

The story behind the declaration is this: Hezbollah is Shiite and Bahraini leadership is Sunni. Over the past two years there have been ongoing protests and almost a popular revolt in Bahrain by the 70% Shiite majority population against their Sunni minority rulers.
Hezbollah has been training the Bahrain fighters in urban terror tactics.

It has always been clear to the many Sunnis in the Arab world that Hezbollah was a terrorist group but it did not matter when they were attacking Israel. Now the Shiite terror group is fomenting unrest in a Sunni country. And Sunni nations are going to be up in arms about that.

There is only one Shiite controlled nation in the world right now. That nation is Iran. The inner division within Islam is going to emerge as a way of isolating both Hezbollah and Iran.

This announcement by Bahrain has several beneficiaries. It is good for Israel and it is good for the West and it is good for everyone else - except Hezbollah and Iran, of course.

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Tuesday April 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Direct talks between Israel and Turkey about diplomatic relations have been rescheduled for April 22.

Rumors abound as to why the meeting, originally scheduled for this week, has been postponed. Most plausible is that Turkey is still peeved and is not willing to bury the hatchet.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is finishing up the Israeli/Palestinian leg of a MidEast trip that began in Turkey. This first official trip to the region has been filled with bold fresh blasts of reality.

All in all, Kerry's impressions of this trip can be summed up by his comments to Israel's President Shimon Peres. The quote went something like this: "peace is not easy, but possible."

"I would say to everyone that I have no illusions about the difficulties; we've seen them. But you have to believe in the possibilities to be able to get there. You and I believe in them and I'm convinced there is a road ahead."

In literature that is called an understatement. But this is diplomacy.

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Sunday April 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

OpIsrael began a few hours ago. Going by the name, one would imagine that OpIsrael is one of those programs through which people learn about the wonderful contributions Israel has made to the world. Or perhaps it could be a project of the Jewish Agency to activate Diaspora Jews and connect them to Israel. It is not.
OPIsrael is short for Operation Israel.

It is an operation that began on April 7 and was organized by the computer hacking group Anonymous. The hackers began attacking Israel on the evening of April 7.

Cyber defense experts say that OpIsrael is not a serious threat to the state. Thus far, the attacks have been very light. The cyber people in Israel say that they are always prepared and that the real, serious attack that they fear will not be announced on forums and chat rooms.

The suggestion is that Anonymous just does not have the skills and the power to seriously threaten Israel. This attack will be a minor inconvenience. It is one of many. There are 10's of thousands of attacks against Israeli websites every day.

Thankfully, OpIsrael is a failure.

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Saturday April 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The West has so little understanding of the Islamic world that they do not realize the enormous enmity and visceral hatred that exists between Islamic groups.

Egyptians hate Iranians. They hate Iranians because Sunnis hate Shiites. Simple and straight forward. Egyptians are Sunnis and Iranians are Shiites.

Egyptian society is very upset with their new president because it appears that Morsi may be on the verge of normalizing diplomatic relations with Iran. Commercial air flights between the two countries have just begun. Flights mean tourists. And the way Egyptians see it, the arrival of Iranian tourists in their country signals the beginning of an Iranian effort to convert Sunni Egyptians over to Shia Islam.

There have been violent protests outside the Iranian diplomatic presence in Cairo. Videos show graffiti being sprayed and rocks and fire bombs being thrown.

People are heard shouting slogans similar to the written graffiti.
Protesters cried out: "Jihad against Shiites and Hezbollah" --- "Morsi, you promised us Sharia, not Shia" --- "Muslim Brotherhood sold us to Iran."

These are powerful expressions. And the word play between "Sharia" which means Islamic law and "Shia" is a very good pun in Arabic.
The words sound very similar but they are very different. Shia means follower, in this case a follower of Ali, son in law of Mohammed. Shariah means legislation, that is, the law as decided by Imams spiritual/leaders/scholars.

This is actually the essence of the tension between the two forms of Islam. It is an argument over Mohammed's successor. Shia believed that Ali was divinely chosen. Sunnis, from the word Sunna, means tradition/teachings (of Mohammed) and Sunnis believe that the Imams chose the best leader.

This is just another example of the internal divisions and serious conflicts in the new Middle East. It is complicated. But it behooves the West to make the effort to understand what is truly going on in the world of Islam.

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Friday April 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Syria sent a very public message to its neighbor, Jordan, yesterday. The clear and unambiguous message was butt out - or else.

The announcement was printed as a front page editorial on the most read newspaper in Syria, the newspaper which is an official mouthpiece of Assad. The message was also declared on Syrian radio.
Jordan has permitted the CIA and other similar groups/agencies to train rebels in Jordan and then send them back over the border to fight the Syrian regime. Turkey has been doing this also, but from the very start Turkey proclaimed its opposition to Assad and support of the rebels. Not so Jordan. Jordan was trying to stay neutral and that is not an easy task.

Over on the other side, according to a report released yesterday,
Hezbollah troops are being trained in Iran and then flown back into Syria to help support Assad.
Each side is training.

And then a major mystery emerged yesterday when the Egyptians stopped and commandeered a ship with 63,000 arms on it, not including ammunition. The vessel was not flying a flag, but information has been leaked out of Egypt suggesting that it may have been registered in Togo. No one knows where it was going.

Most probably the ship carried weapons from Iran going to support Assad in Syria. But they could also have been weapons from Qatar going to the aid of the rebels in Syrian. The last possibility - and no one idea is less plausible than the others - is that the weapons were destined for either Hamas in Gaza or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

More details will, I am sure, surface soon.

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Thursday April 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Jon Stewart has taken Egypt and the new government under Morsi to task for arresting Egyptian TV comedian Bassam Youssef.

Youssef was arrested for insulting Islam and insulting President Morsi.

Stewart presented two excoriating pieces about Morsi about Egyptian democracy and about a duplicitous speech delivered by Morsi who, on the one hand, insults religion and, on the other hand, says religion should be respected and he respects all those who criticize him.

The Freedom and Justice Party - which is part of the Muslim Brotherhood - took to Twitter and defended themselves against Stewart and his attacks. Their intention was to call the US media hypocritical, to say that the media is really controlled by Jews like Jon Stewart.

What happened instead was that their Twitter feed became a link to a montage of rambling pieces mostly from al Jazeera. All of it was archival material and there was no real substance.

Stewart's attack against Morsi was brutal. He showed how Morsi explicitly promised to protect people like Youssef in an interview he gave to Wolf Blitzer on CNN. Blitzer specifically used several names including that of Youssef and the response by Morsi was: "they are my brothers" therefore they have nothing to fear.

One of the strongest lines delivered by Stewart was when he leaned forward, as if to say to Morsi directly, "when you are strong you do not have to be petty."

Unfortunately, we are now seeing just how petty new Arab leadership is. Dissent, any form of dissent, is simply not tolerated.

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Wednesday April 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

China has been buying Iranian oil regularly - despite the international sanctions. China needs the oil and Iran needs the market.

Until now, Iran shipped the oil to China using their own Iranian tankers. This was done because since July 1 2012, when European sanctions were added to the US sanctions, insurance companies refused to cover any tanker transporting Iranian oil.

This week China sent its own tankers to Iran to fill up with crude and transport the oil back. Back in China the oil will be delivered to local refineries and flow into local markets throughout the country.

The fact that China is now no longer relying on the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) is a monumental shift in policy. It means that China is willing to underwrite the cost of any potential spill, kidnapping of the ship and/or a sinking. It means that the Chinese are thinking seriously about the long term and their oil acquisition from Iran.

China and Iran are linked. They need one another.

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Tuesday April 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyah and Khaled Mashaal have met in Cairo.

Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah came over from Gaza and Politburo Chief Khaled Mashaal arrived from Qatar which is where he is now headquartered.

There are several reasons for meeting.

The most important part of their get together is to strategize a way to smooth over differences with Egypt. Hamas has been at a disadvantage ever since Egypt closed the tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt Hamas has suffered. They no longer have the freedom of movement the tunnels offered them.

Mashaal and Haniyah must also decide if they should continue to try to reconcile with the Palestinian Authority. So far, all attempts at reconciliation have failed.

There is no doubt that they will also discuss Israel. And there is no doubt that about Israel the two Hamas leaders will be in 100% agreement. Condemn, just condemn.

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Monday April 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Once again, al Qaeda fighters are trying to enter Timbuktu. The Mali army is repels al Qaeda, but even if the fighting temporarily dies down the conflict will continue for a long time.

Al Qaeda wants to control Timbuktu. Making the situation even more problematic is the fact that Timbuktu is controlled by the Mali government which is not Islamist. Timbuktu is controlled by Colonel Mamadou Mangara.

For centuries Timbuktu was the center of Islamic culture and learning. It is the repository for the greatest Islamic rare book library and manuscripts in the world. It was the seat of one of the greatest educational powers in Islamic history. The idea that it would be controlled by non radical, non al Qaeda type leadership is repugnant.

The government in Mali is a semi-democracy formed after two military coups that took place in 2012. The city has a population of about 54,000 people. But to al Qaeda the importance of controlling Timbuktu is not about numbers. It is about history.

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Sunday March 31, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Gas is flowing.

Tamar, one of several Mediterranean natural gas fields, is now open and flowing to Israel. It took a long time and a lot of money, but this is the start of Israel becoming energy independent. That is a monumental event.

When the project began, many people thought it was a pipe dream - and now a huge deposit of natural gas is flowing underwater to Israel.

Tamar is located about 56 miles off the coast of Haifa. The drilling went down 3 miles below sea level. It takes 30 hours for the gas to travel from the field to Ashdod where it will be processed and then sold.

The hope is that Israel will become totally energy independent by 2035. That will happen when this field, Tamar, together with other fields like Leviathan which is scheduled to open soon begin producing more and more gas.

The kicker is that Israel will become an exporter, a supplier of world gas - not simply a consumer. That will change the balance of power in the Middle East. It will change the balance of power in the world.

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Friday March 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A Palestinian Authority court in the West Bank has sentenced a journalist to one year in prison. It happened just yesterday

His crime was posting a picture on his own facebook page. The picture was a depiction of Abbas as a traitor.

Over the past few months human rights groups have lodged a series of complaints against Abbas for the way in which he is cracking down on civil rights in the West Bank.

Most often the people targeted by Abbas have been Hamas members. I agree that Hamas must be reigned in, especially in the West Bank, in order to control, rule and protect the Palestinian Authority. But this case is about a facebook picture.

A free and critical internet is part and parcel of the new media.
PA leadership must make a distinction between serious threats to their power and frivolous exercises in free speech. Once they accomplish that, they can focus on the real threats and not waste their time on facebook pictures or gratuitous tweets.

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Thursday March 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Three divers were arrested as they were trying to cut Egypt's underwater internet cable.

The cable enables access to the internet for the entire country. The Egyptian Navy discovered the divers and apprehended them.
There is no better portal to the outside world than the internet.

But that doesn't sit well with many Egyptians. These people believe that if the cable was cut, people would be focusing on important issues of Islam and not distracted by the sins and horrors of the internet.

A major part of Egypt does not want Egyptians to be corrupted by influences from the outside world.

President Morsi and the ruling Muslim Brotherhood party agree with this principle and yet, the navy prevented the cable from being severed.

This incident underscores the tension between Egyptian leaders and the armed forces. This incident is another glaring example underscoring how there is no real leadership in Egypt right now.

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Wednesday March 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

As I have mentioned before, the Syrian side of the Golan Heights is
up for grabs.

Over the past week there have been several strikes from Syria into Israel. Rockets from Syria have landed in Israel and Israel has returned fire

One very strong possible scenario is that Israel will enter Syria in order to secure certain areas - especially if either Hezbollah or al Qaeda takes control of those areas near the Israel border.

Given the rockets and the threats it is only natural that Israelis fear that they may be a risk of war.

In response to the enveloping fear Army Chief of Staff Benny Ganz issued a calming statement. He said: "We can and should visit the Golan Heights - it is peaceful, safe and beautiful. We mustn't disrupt the routine of our lives due to this or that incident."

Ganz is delivering multiple messages with that statement. One message is clear. The army chief of staff does not foresee the region becoming a warzone during Passover. He knows that there are increased tensions on that border, but in his estimation, that is far from an unstable, unsafe situation,

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Tuesday March 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The real story of prisoner X will emerge over time. Some of the pieces have already started to fall into place.

Allen Zygier was arrested and imprisoned in Israel. He was actually placed in the cell built for Yigal Amir, the infamous assassin of
Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin. Cameras recorded his every move 24/7, and yet, he successfully hung himself using his bed sheet.
Why did a young Australian Jew, a father of 2 young children (one of them a new born) commit suicide?

Allen Zygier was a Mossad agent. The walls were collapsing around him. He had been in the field in Europe, principally in Italy, and he was not delivering. So he was brought back to Israel and reassigned to Tzameret.

Tzameret is the division within the Mossad that gathers and sifts through material collected from the field. It is a desk job. Zygier did not take well to being benched.

And here is where things got out of hand. On his own, Allen Zygier decided to prove himself. He decided to get back into the field by finding informants. He went in search of Hezbollah informants and found them. In order to convince the informants that he was who he was, he proved that he was a Mossad agent. And then he gave his informants the identities of two other Mossad informants who were then captured by Hezbollah.

The people Zygier was trying to recruit double crossed him. They used him and gained extremely sensitive information from him. The
Mossad was unaware of the extent of the damage. They only found out only as when they disciplined Zygier for stepping out of bounds.
Zygier then spilled the entire story and the Mossad realized that his naive attempt to curry favor cost them both an operation and an informant in Lebanon.

Actually, Zygier was willing duped into giving over information to Hezbollah. The shame and the magnitude of the crisis he caused were overwhelming. It is assumed that Allen Zygier could no longer live with the knowledge that he was tricked into betraying his dream and his home. And so he ended it all.

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Monday March 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Every now and then PMW, Palestinian Media Watch, unveils a gem of an issue that no other media outlet even comes close to finding.
PMW is the watch dog of Palestinian media, headed by an American/Israeli named Itamar Marcus.

Yesterday PMW released a story explaining that during the Obama trip to the area, the PA removed an offensive monument in Bethlehem. It is a monument that President Obama would have found to be a real shocker.

In words and in picture, the monument tells of the total destruction of Israel and the start of a revolution. It shows a map of Palestine without Israel, glorifies terror and embraces the total annihilation of Israel replacing it with a Palestinian State.

There is more than one of these monuments, all strategically placed around the PA. The Bethlehem monument was the only one that would have crossed paths with the president of the United States.

Which proverb works best here? Is it one picture is worth a thousand words. Or is it actions speak louder than words.

Kudos to PMW for uncovering this subterfuge. It was an act carefully and purposefully orchestrated by Palestinian leadership.

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Sunday March 24, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There has been much debate as to whether Israel should have apologized to Turkey for the 2010 raid of the flotilla en route Gaza that resulted in the deaths of nine Turks.

This is not a question of right and wrong. It was.
Now it is a question of security.

Israel was legally and morally justified in preventing the ship from reaching Gaza. They were right in boarding the ship. They were justified in protecting themselves.

So why was apologizing correct?

Because the apology is about improving Israel's safety, not about being diplomatically correct or legally right.

When there is tension between Israel and Turkey the door is open to potential threats. An apology closes that door. The United States - Turkey - Israel link is now reconnected. And the threat of fallout from Syria can be better defended.

The spillover of Islamic extremism, especially al Qaeda extremism emanating out of Syria is very real and it is very difficult to confront. Having Turkey as an ally will make Israel’s defense more effective.

Admittedly, the calculus puts aside the past and the question of who was right. But it focuses on the present and the future and that is far more important - and that is why Prime Minister Netanyahu did what he did and said what he said. He made the right move.

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Saturday March 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and Turkey have reconciled. Netanyahu called Erdogan and apologized - and the apology was accepted. Erdogan responded saying that Turkey and Israel will now normalize relations.

Turkey and Israel have been in crisis since May 31, 2010 when Israelis commandos boarded a Turkish ship which was part of a flotilla en route to Gaza. Nine people on board the ship were killed.

It seems that President Obama made it all happen. At his final press conference in Israel, at the airport, as he was leaving, the US president said that the United States values the friendship it has with its allies Turkey and Israel.

Obama probably convinced Netanyahu to apologize, then called Erdogan, prepped him, and put Bibi on the phone.

Until now Israel official said that they "regretted" what happened on the flotilla ship, but never apologized. Israel offered to pay compensation but that was not enough. Turkey needed that word. They needed an apology. Once done, it has all gone back to normal. And now Turkey is willing to accept the compensation that Netanyahu had originally offered.

Why was an apology so significant --- pride. It was about Turkish national pride.

And in the interest of regional stability --- Israel can now afford to apologize.

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Friday March 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There is little doubt that the Obama trip to Israel has been a raging success. Israelis feel that the US president finally "gets Israel." They're right. But my point is that Obama always got it.

This is just a change in tone style.

During the first four years of the Obama administration one might think that Barack Obama did not understand Israel. He did.

During the first four years of his administration Obama was treating Israel to tough love. Now he is trying a different tactic.

This change in style makes the interaction between the leaders of the United States and Israel - and by extension their citizens - much more pleasant. While the past four years were filled with angst and frustration now the interaction is convivial and both Israelis and friends of Israel feel better about that change.

But there is no change in message.

And that's an important distinction.

Look at this quote from the famous speech delivered by Obama yesterday --- "It is not just when settler violence against Palestinians goes unpunished."

Hundreds of settlers are in prison for violence and for plotting against Palestinians. So are hundreds of soldiers. But there is not one single Palestinian in a Palestinian jail for violence or terror against Jews.

The Obama speech at Binyanei HaUma was populist. Obama tried to create a division between the masses and the Knesset elite. His aim was to sidestep those duly elected to power. He wants the masses to tell the leaders to take risks.

The overall tone of the Obama trip to Israel is romantic. His goal was to get the Israelis to join his team. And in that, he is succeeding. During the first four years of his presidency Obama dangled the proverbial stick in front of Israel. That did not have the desired impact. Now he is dangling the carrot.

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Thursday March 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Barack Obama has been very successful during the first leg of his Middle East trip.

He has been charming and convincing. He is extremely gifted and knows how to show empathy, making people feel that he really cares about them.

In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Obama quoted Yoni Netanyahu - the brother of the prime minister who died in Operation Entebbe saving Israelis and other Jews hijacked and held under the reign of Idi Amin in Uganda.

The president said: "On Friday I will visit Mount Herzl, among the fallen buried there is Yoni Netanyahu." He continued by quoting Yoni, "Don't forget that strength, justice and staunch resolution are on our side."

Theodor Herzl, the founder of modern Zionism, is a hero for Israelis. So, too, is Yoni Netanyahu. Yoni was a modern day David, a role model for his brother and for almost every Zionist living anywhere in the world.

Herzl is buried twenty yards away from Yoni. I wonder if Obama will wander over and pay tribute at that grave as well. I wonder if anyone has told Barack Obama about Herzl. I hope so.

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Wednesday March 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Again, a mass riot against Christians in Egypt.
Hundreds of Muslims in the south of Egypt ran and rioted yesterday. They destroyed Christian shops. They tried to destroy both large churches in town of Ban Suef.

It all started because of rumors that a Muslim girl was kidnapped by Christians who then converted her. But there is no evidence - and the young woman has not been found. The young woman in question was last seen leaving her home with a passport, gold and a Muslim male friend. She is college age and probably left the country.

The local prosecutor clearly suggests that there is no link to this or any other Christian kidnappings of Muslims. But truth and facts are less powerful than rumor and traditional hatred.

Two sets of rumors stoke the fire that sets off these riots:
# 1: the fear that young girls are being forcibly converted by Christians
# 2: the building of new churches and the renovation and add-ons to older churches

Egyptian Muslims have no incentive to stop killing Egyptian Christians. Expect more rioting, more violence, more anarchy.

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Tuesday March 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama is scheduled to touch down in Israel at 12 noon on Wednesday.

The planning for a Presidential visit is enormous as is the security.
On Friday at 12:30 President Obama is scheduled to visit Bethlehem.

This will be his second foray into the Palestinian Authority, first will be the day before on Thursday.

It has become more and more evident that the people in the PA are not welcoming Obama. A huge billboard with Obama's picture was put up in Manger Square next to the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. The huge sign was ripped down and defaced yesterday - with a swastika.

I am certain that all of Bethlehem does not feel the same way as those who tore down and defaced the sign, but we have not heard from those Palestinians.

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Monday March 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

There were brutal lynchings in Egypt yesterday.

Two men were caught stealing a motorized rickshaw. They were dragged to the public square which houses an open air bus station.
They were beaten, stripped and hung upside down.

3,000 people watched. 3,000 people shouted "kill them, kill them." They were killed - but only after they were beaten, stripped and hung upside down.

Witnesses describe and pictures depict a gruesome act of vigilantism.

Last week the Egyptian interior ministry called on the public to make citizens arrests because the police were on strike and law and order was turning to chaos. But vigilantism is almost worse than the chaos.

There is no real sense of safety on the streets of Egypt. There is no justice.

Egypt is teetering, it seems to be on the verge of total collapse.
The rise of Muslim Brotherhood militias will push the anarchy to a new low.

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Sunday March 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Iranians have just placed a naval destroyer in the Caspian Sea.

This is significant for several reasons.
# 1: The Caspian Sea is landlocked. It is sometimes called the largest lake in the world. (Despite the fact that it is salt water)
# 2: The Caspian is filled with oil reserves. And along with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and of course Russia, Iran is drilling very aggressively there.
# 3: There is no treaty and no agreement as to who controls what in the Caspian.
# 4; There is very little military presence in the Caspian, certainly not on the level of a heavy naval destroyer.

The world has paid little attention to the Caspian Sea in discussions of Iran's oil, always assuming that it is a sealed and controlled area. But much of Iranian oil exports have been from that region for that very reason. From the looks of things Iran is going to pick up oil exports from the Caspian Sea.

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Saturday March 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Netanyahu coalition was finally agreed upon and all the parties that are "in" have signed.

On Saturday night, immediately after Shabbat concludes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will bring his coalition list and the accompanying agreements to Israeli President Shimon Peres who will accept it and the government will be sworn in.

This will all happen only minutes shy of the deadline. Had the potential coalition members not reached a compromise President Peres would have had to enlist someone other than Netanyahu to form a government and create a coalition. That's the law.

The government needs to have at least 60 seats, half of the 120 members in the Knesset.

This government has 68 seats.
Likud-Beteynu - 31
Yesh Atid - 19
Bayit Haeyhudi - 12
Hatuah - 6

It is a small government composed of 4 parties. And Netanyahu gave up quite a lot to the partners. In Israel, the winner actually loses. He must give away some of the most important minister portfolios to keep his coalition happy.

In this case Netanyahu is anticipating that his partner Avigdor Lieberman, the Beteynu part of Likud-Beteynu, will splinter off.

And when he does Netanyahu will still have a narrow majority. Just enough to govern.

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Friday March 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The US Presidential visit to Israel is fast approaching. Expectations are extremely low on many fronts. Two segments of this visit, however, have caught my attention.

The president of the United States of America will not address the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. Even Jimmy Carter addressed the Knesset. Instead, the wise men and women advising Barack Obama have told him to take the message to the Israeli people, not the politicians.

Obama will bypass the politicians who, like in every working democracy, can sometimes be pretty petty. But the Israeli Knesset represents the democracy of Israel. It is an institution. And that institution demands respect.

Not addressing the formal Knesset is an anti-democratic and a populist act. Not addressing the Knesset is an act of terrible disrespect for the election process. Obama may not like them, but the members of the Knesset are the people duly elected and chosen by Israelis to represent them and their ideals.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Presidential advance team has invited the newly crowned Miss Israel, Yitish Aynaw, more often called by her nick name Titi, to the grand gala hosted by Shimon Peres at the President's residence.

Titi hails from Ethiopia. As she put it: "Ten years ago I was walking around barefoot in Ethiopia and I never imagined that one day I would be in the Land of Israel, meeting the Israeli president and the president of the United States. I could never have imagined such a powerful and exciting situation."

Nay to politicians, Yea to beauty queens. That's the Obama presidency.

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Thursday March 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrian Golan Heights is up for grabs.

While the Syrian army can still make a play for the Heights, it seems pretty clear that they are not actively in control of much of the Syrian Golan right now. If we were unconvinced of the role the army is playing - or rather not playing in the area, the UN has given us some concrete proof.

The United Nations has made it very clear that they are thinking of pulling all their people from the Golan because of the kidnapping of 21 UN observers several days ago. Croatia saw the writing on the wall weeks ago and withdrew all their personnel.

The Golan is now being fought over by al Qaeda rebels and by Hezbollah.

This is not good news.

Whichever group gains control of the Syrian Golan Heights it will be a murderous, volatile, terror group - sitting directly on Israel's border.

Al Qaeda and Hezbollah have each expressly pledged to destroy Israel and the conflict between the forces of Assad and the Syrian rebels has provided both groups with new and more advanced weapons with which to attack Israel.

Those weapons include chemical weapons.

Unfortunately, the only thing we can do is watch carefully and wait patiently. That's not much.

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Wednesday March 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

First it was the Iranian press, now Western press, too, is buzzing about a pseudo announcement made by Iranian Vice President Mohammed Rezza Rahimi.

The Iranian vice president is quoted as saying that in front of the United Nations, Iran will declare that they do not have ambitions to attain nuclear weapons.

This declaration is viewed as a public pronouncement of the "fatwah" the religious edict handed down in 2005 by The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei in which, it is said, he declared that it is "forbidden to produce, store, or use nuclear weapons."

Is this serious? Is Iran trustworthy?

One thing is for certain. This is another move by Iran in a much larger game.

This orchestrated move is an attempt to roll back international sanctions. It is also an attempt to reduce tensions and pull Israel and other Western countries away from the brink. The brink, in this case, is the point at which Israel and/or the West launch a pre-emptive military strike against Iran.

Now, if there is a strike against Iran, it will appear as if Israel is the aggressor.

Does Iran intend on backing away from their enrichment. The answer is a resounding no. Actually, it appears that Iran is doing exactly the opposite.

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Tuesday March 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Saudis are holding meetings. They are considered stopping beheadings - replacing them with firing squads.

In attendance at these meetings are representative of the health ministry and the interior ministry who are saying that there are just not enough trained swordsmen in Saudi Arabia anymore. And those who are trained are so over booked that they come late and that delays the execution.

Remember - quite a few crimes in Saudi Arabia warrant the death penalty.

In addition, execution is the punishment for murder and rape.
And apostasy, which means turning away from Islam, is a very big sin and that punishment is heading.

In Saudi Arabia the punishment for any form of drug infraction is death, as is the case with armed robbery.

Beheading someone takes skill and strength. Firing squads are much easier to man.

Every country faces its own demons and dilemmas.

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Monday March 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is blocking all access to outside internet. This is all in order to prepare for their upcoming June 14 presidential elections.

So, as of yesterday, the only sites and information that Iranians can access are ports that are legal and permitted.

All VPI's or Virtual Private Networks have been closed. A VPI is computer program software that enables a user to access the internet as if they are sitting somewhere else in the world. An Iranian in Tehran can sit, conceivably, sit on his lounge and watch Gilligan's Island on YouTube and the computer thinks he is Munich.

Now Iran has blanketed shut all ports to VPI's. They also shut Skype and Viber which are calling and internet communication software.

There are still ways around the blocks for Iranians, but it is becoming more and more difficult.

Iran wants to manage the access to all information. That is one of the key reasons why, despite their claim of a democratic election, they are truly a dictatorship, a theocracy.

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Sunday March 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Jihadist groups are the ones I worry about most. Their actions are especially hard to predict - and their rhetoric closely resembles their actions.

There has been a significant rise in Jihadist group activity in the Sinai desert over the past few weeks.

This is what happened today: A Jihadist group launched a rocket from a central Sinai city toward the Suez. It was a test run. They say that the rocket, with a range of 30 miles, was originally Israeli pilfered after the last conflict in Gaza. The Jihadists say that they have numerous rockets just like this one.

Israel fears that these rockets will be used against them.
The Egyptians harbor the same fear.

The Egyptians fear that the Jihadist will use these rockets to attack the police stations and military posts trying to control the spread of anarchy created by the Jihadists.

And there is no better example of that than what is happening in Sinai.

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Friday March 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Today Secretary of State John Kerry and First Lady Michelle Obama were scheduled to award the International Women of Courage honors.
Samira Ibrahim, a woman from Egypt was scheduled to get the award.
The State Department and the First Lady were drawn to Samira because she was the woman who challenged the virginity tests that were applied to women who came to protest at Tahrir Square.

Had she received the award, it would have been devastating. Yesterday, finally, just in the nick of time, the State Department and the First Lady decided against giving Samira Ibrahim the award.

As early as July, in fact, in the July 18 issue of the Weekly Standard, Samuel Tadros called our attention to the twitter feeds of Ibrahim. What she says would knock any Westerners socks off- for example, she congratulated Hitler for his success in murdering Jews.

And even after the Weekly Standard piece came out, Samira Ibrahim continued her vitriol. On 9/11 2012, the anniversary of the worst terror attack in world history, she tweeted, "Today is the anniversary of 9/11. May every year come with America burning."

Then after the July terror attack in Bulgaria she tweeted, "An explosion on a bus carrying Israelis in Burgas airport in Bulgaria on the Black Sea. Today is a very sweet day with a lot of very sweet news."

And here she is quoting Hitler in August, "I have discovered with the passage of days, that no act contrary to morality, no crime against society, takes place, except with the Jews having a hand in it. Hitler."

Who vetted this decision to have Samira Ibrahim receive this prestigious award? Does standing up to the tyrants in Tahrir Square whitewash those quotes and obvious biases?

Those quotes should have automatically disqualified her for the award and it should not have taken the administration months to recant ... only hours before the awards.

There was a major snafu here. Damage was done even if the award was not presented.

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Thursday March 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Tuesday was one of those very bad days in Syria. It was a day that was extremely illustrative of what is happening on the ground and how complicated things are for Syrians.

Reading Western press coverage one get the impression that there are good guys and bad guys in Syria. Assad is bad - and he is. The rebels who oppose him are good - but they are not. There are no proverbial white hats and black hats in Syria. In Syria, they all wear black hats - or kafiyahs, if you will.

On Tuesday rebels kidnapped 21 UN international observers. They are holding them as ransom. The demands have yet to be made. This was not a mistaken kidnapping, it was a well planned and well executed operation.

On the same day, Tuesday, Assad's air force bombed the cities of Homs and Raqqa killing dozens of rebels and others and wounding countless numbers of Syrians.

What we learn from this sliver of conflict is that both sides in Syria do really evil things. Unfortunately, seldom are the rebels ever analyzed, no less covered in the media and if they are, it is only when they strike at Assad forces. Public decapitations - and there are many, are seldom ever reported.

Bashar Assad is a murderous thug ... but do not think that the alternative to Assad is any less cruel and ruthless. Mainstream, opposition rebels in Syria are, if not full blown al Qaeda operatives, at least affiliated with and in sync with al Qaeda.

The West must think hard before offering help in Syria.

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Wednesday March 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

General James Mattis testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. Mattis is head of US Central Command, he is the most important US military person in the Middle East.

In brief James Mattis testified that Western diplomatic efforts and sanctions against Iran have not had the desired impact. The sanctions have not, he said, brought Iran to its knees.

Actually Iran is continuing its traditional role of denial and of obstructing international agency inspections at their nuclear facilities. And Iran continues to enrich uranium far beyond the needs of any peaceful and/or scientific demands.

Mattis did say that the United States still has the ability to bring Iran to its knees. He even suggested that the US still has several additional, untried, tools to use against Iran that do not include a full military strike.

The testimony of Mattis made it clear that Iran is using diplomacy to their own advantage. The Iranians are delaying the West from moving seriously against them thereby giving themselves permission to continue with their enrichment plans.

I hope that this was not news to the Senate committee.

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Tuesday March 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is starting to set the stage for another strike against Syria.
Over the past few days Syrian shells have fallen into Israel. Now both the Israeli representative to the UN and the Israeli prime minister have gone on the record saying that the conflict in Syrian cannot spill over into Israel.

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador the United Nations, delivered a letter to the Security Council and all 15 members. The letter describes how the conflict in Syria is resulting in rockets landing in Israel. The important part of the letter is that Israel reserves the right to respond.

From Israel's point of view, "response" is not necessarily simply a hit back at the place that launched the missile. Israel reserves the right to respond and attack the source of the conflict.

That could mean striking Assad sources or rebel bases. It gives the Israelis carte blanche to hit anywhere and anything in Syria.

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Monday March 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been plagued by locust over the past few days. The video is eerie, evoking images of Moses and ancient Egypt.

Swarms of black locust drop like clouds, falling on crops devouring them. They bounce off cars. It is Biblical.

Israel is concerned that Egypt is not doing enough to eradicate the locust. There is a significant danger that the locust will make their way to Israel, so Israel has begun to take precautions. Hotlines are up for anyone who sees the swarms. Major pesticides are in full stock.

But what the Israelis will inevitably do is dig huge ditches on their border with Egypt at the anticipated crossing points. The trenches must be equipped with kerosene. When the locust come, the Israelis will light the trenches.

Because locust fly low, their wings will be singed by the heat of the fire and they will fall in the ditches.

This is one problem that Egypt did not need right now.

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Sunday March 3, 3013

I've Been Thinking:

The new US Secretary of State is on a whirlwind trip and his focus is the Middle East.

John Kerry has an agenda. He pledged to give the Syrian rebels $60 million, but that will exclusively be in the form of food and medical aid. $60 million is a drop in the bucket and food and medicines are not what the rebels need.

The rebels were at least hoping for night vision goggles and protective armor, which they are now lobbying to get from England.

The United States cannot give material aid to the rebels even if they are vetted because the chance are just too high that all that aid will then go to al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliated groups.

Today Kerry is in Egypt trying to urge the Egyptians to conform to the IMF request to enable billions of dollars of international aid.
Kerry is also urging that they find a national consensus around which to rally and put aside their inner conflicts. And it should be no surprise that Kerry and the Egyptians spoke about Syria.

Kerry wants to prove that he and the United States can help stabilize the Middle East. But to do that, he has to be more convincing. As of now there has been no real affirmation that the Middle East has any faith in the US point of view or even wants their involvement.

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Saturday March 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Oil prices dropped yesterday.

The price of oil per barrel dropped to $90. The most significant reason for the fall is the all powerful sequester.

Because of potential cuts across the board, the entire economy is in jeopardy of a free fall. As a result - oil process dropped. Add to that the slowdown in all markets across all spectra in China and you have price changes.

The world economy is elastic, it is very responsive to changes. And oil prices are extremely responsive to US consumption.

The US is the largest consumer of oil in the world consuming 19, 150,000 barrels per day. This is far more than the EU, which is the second largest consumer, at 13 million barrels per day. All total the EU and the US compose 33% of the world's oil. This proves just how important the US economic conditions are to the global price of oil.

We heard about the sequester for weeks and not a single person spoke about consequences other than the layoffs and the cutbacks.

Oil. Sequester. Expect a huge global impact.

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Friday March 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between the six Western countries and Iran have finished and Iran is satisfied. These were the first real discussions since June and they took place in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

To quote Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili: the Westerns tried to "get closer to our viewpoint."

The West offered Iran an easing of sanctions if they stop enriching uranium at Fordo. From reports, the message from the West was less strident but it was the same message: Stop enriching uranium.

Iran has said that they are willing to talk and negotiate. And they agreed to another meeting in April. But Iran said that talks and negotiations are not capitulations - talks do not mean that Iran must agree with everything the West demands.

So Saeed Jalilli was pleased and intimated that there was real hope. But hope for Iran is a softening of the West's position. It is a major softening in terms of rhetoric.

Iran is correct - negotiations cannot be a fait accompli. But the US should have adopted a nicer tone years ago - now is the time for firmness.

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Thursday February 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels that connect Egypt and Gaza. The case was brought before the court because last year 16 Egyptian border guards will killed by Palestinians from Gaza who came through the tunnels with weapons.

The security of Egypt is at stake. The Egyptian court would not act if the violence was only one way, if it was directed only at Israel.
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi's national security adviser Ossam Haddad has said on several occasions that Egypt cannot not permit the two-way flow of smuggled arms through the tunnels.

Ynet quotes Wael Hamdi, the lawyer that brought the case, and Judge Farid Tanaghou, who ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels.
Ynet reports "the court ruled to make it obligatory that the government destroy the tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip,"

"I filed the case because I was worried about the state of national security in my country after the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power and its unclear policies and links with Hamas" said Wael Hamdi, the lawyer who brought the case.

1.5 million people travel through the tunnels every year. There are 450 major tunnels and 750 smaller ones. Some think that there are as many as 2000 tunnels. 1/3 of all of Gaza's imports come in through the tunnels.

While it hurt only Israel, Egypt turned a blind eye to the tunnels.
But now Egyptians must act because these tunnels add to the lawlessness and anarchy that pervades their country.

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Wednesday February 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

At this point I have no doubt that Sheik Nasrallah, the leader of

Hezbollah, departed Beirut by plane and went to Teheran.
The move was made in classic Middle East style. First, there were rumors. Then officials denied the rumors. And then came full blown press coverage explaining how he left and where he went.

As a rule, Sheik Nasrallah does not travel. When he does it is in total secret to reduce the risk of assassination. He very seldom leaves his secure home in Southern Lebanon. Leaving Lebanon and going to Iran now was a big risk, but a risk that needed taking. Nasrallah is said to be in a hospital.

Most Lebanese media coverage of the trip reported that the 52 year old leader of Hezbollah suffers from cancer - and it is getting worse. A second theory making its way around Lebanon and Syria is that Nasrallah wounded by Syrian rebel shelling and in need of Iranian medical attention.

If he has a full recuperation the entire episode will mean nothing except to show that Iran manages even the medical care their proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon.

However, if Nasrallah is hurt, or dies, or cannot fully return to his position there is the potential for real anarchy in Hezbollah.
That power vacuum will not be good for the West or for Israel.

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Tuesday February 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Financial Times raised a very important issue in a piece they ran yesterday. The piece was about increased imports of oil from the Middle East, but that was not the profound part.

The Financial Times raised the following question: If the United States becomes more and more energy independent, as has been the trend and their objective, will the United States still devote and invest so many resources into keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

The United States now dedicates huge amounts of military hardware and manpower to patrol the Straits of Hormuz and make certain that they remain free and open. The Straits run between Iran and Oman and about 33% of the world's oil passes through every day.

But if the United States is no longer a large purchaser of that oil, will they still protect the Straits?

The answer to that question was not given in the piece.

But the answer is probably --- yes.

The price of oil is determined internationally. A crisis anywhere, especially in the Middle East and even more so in the Straits of Hormuz, would mean a huge spike in the price of oil for the world and especially for the United States.

It would continue to be in the best interests of the United States to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and safe in order to keep the price of oil stable.

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Monday February 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The other day Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an unusual and truthful comment on Iranian tv. It was picked up in the Washington Post but almost nowhere else.

Ahmadinejad said "[t]his was a very difficult year for our economy."

He went on with his assessment saying that the United States is engaged in a huge and powerful economic attack on Iran which has had an impact on Iran's economy. He said that many of the tactics the US and the Western world have applied against Iran have been unfair and certainly illegal.

Ahmadinejad then outlined his expectations for this coming year's economy saying that he anticipates growth in numerous markets. His big emphasis was on domestic production and export and self reliance. He explained that in 2013 Iran would emerge victorious against the United States in the economic war.

This admission is as revealing as it is extremely unusual. It is a signal to us that Iran was hit far more deeply than we expected.

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Sunday February 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In just a few days Iran will meet once again with Western powers to discuss the Iranian nuclear program.

One might naturally assume that in light of that looming event Iran would be on its best behavior. But no, not Iran. This weekend Iran announced that it is most certainly working to go online with nuclear technology.

The Iranians have announced a plan to open 16 new nuclear sites. They said that Busher was expected to be fully operational within the year. They also announced that they have discovered new reserves of uranium.

Originally it was thought that Iran would have to import uranium in order to service their nuclear capabilities. With this new discovery Iran will no longer be reliant on the price of uranium, they will be able to provide their own.

Iran marches forward to unchallenged nuclear capabilities.

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Saturday February 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Jabhat al Nusra is the most important group fighting against the ruling regime in Syria.

Founded on January 25, 2012 - only about 13 months ago - they continue to grow in ranks and have become very effective at striking regime targets. Attacks perpetrated by Jabhat al Nusra include car bombs in Damascus, bombing the TV station, suicide bombing in Aleppo, and the Taftanaz attack which was an attack against an air force base with 48 helicopters. This group has also been responsible for brutal executions in Sarqeb.

Jabhat means "the front" and Nusra means "support." It is often mis-translated as the Support Front but the full name of the group is, Jabhat al-Nusrah li-Ahl al-Sham and that means "The Front for the Support of the Syrian People." And "the front" refers to the battle front.

Jabhat al Nusra is al Qaeda. They are growing because more and more al Qaeda members are crossing into Syria to participate in the battle to oust Assad. They are also getting more and more defectors from the other anti-Assad rebel groups operating in Syria.

Those who cross into Syria to fight with them are well trained.
They bring weapons and other armaments. They swell the ranks of Jabat al Nusrah by several thousand a month.

The smaller rebel groups are purely anti-Assad. Jabat al Nusrah is Islamist. They embrace the entire al Qaeda line. But in the end, despite al Nusrah's expanding ranks, the numbers of the rebels are dropping fast.

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Friday February 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Since the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt, the Christians there have been living in a precarious and especially dangerous situation.

And we only know half the story, because most anti-Christian attacks in Egypt go unreported.

This week Al Balad news service covered threats made to Coptic Christian religious leaders. The Coptic Christians were told to convert to Islam or die. These threats were issued in the city of Safaga, near the Red Sea. They were made by a new group called Jihad al Kufr which means "the holy war against the heretics."

In Islam, the punishment for heretics is death.

In Fayoum this week the church was attacked - twice. Last week two boys, one nine years old and the other ten years old were arrested for desecrating the Koran. They were playing on a garbage heap and in the heap there happened to be some remains of a Koran.

On a subway in Cairo Muslim in hijabs and burkahs grabbed two Coptic Christians and forcibly cut their hair. That is the third time something an incident like this has been perpetrated.

The situation is not getting better for the Christians of Egypt. Of the 85 million people who live in Egypt, 9 million are Christians.

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Thursday February 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Let's begin at the end. Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador from Sri Lanka.

The move came in response to Sri Lanka pulling their ambassador in Saudi Arabia.

How did the situation get to this point?

It began in 2005 when a then 17 year old Sri Lankan babysitter was charged with smothering a four month old baby Saudi baby to death. On January 9, 2013 the babysitter was beheaded. In response to the beheading Sri Lanka announced a travel ban to Saudi Arabia on all women under 25.

Many international organizations condemned the beheading.
Saudi Arabia executes people who have violated laws that they deem fundamental to their social fabric. Drugs, robbery, adultery and more serious crimes like murder are all met with the same punishment - beheading.

The United States has made its point of view known to the Saudi government, but no country and no diplomacy will have an impact or influence on the policies of Saudi Arabia. Saudi policy is ingrained into Saudi life and is a fundamental component of Saudi legal culture.

This is Shariya -- Islamic law.

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Wednesday February 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

I still believe that Chuck Hagel will be confirmed by the Senate. I do not think it is a wise decision. If I were advising the president, I would suggest that he find a new nominee.

The reason Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense comes down to simple math. The Democrats only need 51 members to approve the confirmation and they are a majority of 55 in the Senate.

Comments made by Hagel before an audience at Rutgers University in 2007 show just how off base he is. He suggested that the State Department is a branch of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. The ridiculousness of that comment shows just how out of line things have gotten.

If there is any genuinely pro-Arab agency in the US government it is State. And the Arabists there have good reason to be pro-Arab if for no other reason than that they must deal with the geopolitical reality. In their eyes it is a numbers game - there are some many Arabs and so many Arab countries that they must be addressed.

The State Department clearly has an anti-Israel bias, that is the way it is and that is the way it always has been. How could anyone, especially a sitting member of the armed services committee, even entertain any other idea.

The biggest kicker is that yesterday The Wall Street Journal exposed that the academic department that invited Hagel to speak at Rutgers was sponsored by Iran.

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Tuesday February 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

One of the most common questions posed to me over the weekend was - why has Egypt flooded the tunnels between Gaza and Egypt.

The answer is that Egypt has been hurt badly by weapons and by people making their way through the tunnels all in order to attack Egypt.

The reality is that now only 30% of the goods in Gaza come through the tunnels and almost all of that is illegal. Compare that to the 100% figure of only a few months ago.

This is the answer, according to Reuters, given by Essam Haddad, President Morsi's National Security Adviser, to the tunnel question: "And on the other side, we would not like to see arms smuggled through these tunnels either in or out, because we are now seeing in Sinai and we have captured actually across Egypt heavy arms that could be used in a very dangerous way."

Last week Egypt stopped two tons of explosives making their way to the tunnels en route to Gaza. The Egyptians stopped the delivery en route because once they are in Gaza the goods can be allocated for operations against Egypt.

Six months ago, in August, terrorists from Gaza attacked and killed 16 Egyptian police in the Sinai.

This week alone two sets of Israeli security teams are meeting in
Egypt to discuss mutual interests. Egypt says they will shout at Israel to open up the border even more - but they really want to hear what Israel knows about al Qaeda and other terrorists.

Terrorists almost as interested in destroying Egypt as they are in destroying Israel.

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Monday February 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while something fun happens on the world scene, something that makes me smile.

Last summer two Italians visited Israel. They went for a vacation and for the purpose of creating art.

The two were photographers, so naturally, they brought their cameras. They also brought Barbie and Ken. And then they took pictures of the dolls against the backdrop of the great sites of Israel. Tel Aviv, the Dead Sea, the Western Wall.

Those photos are now on display. They have been featured in very popular Italian fashion and art magazines and even in Vanity Fair.
What makes this an even more interesting story is that in Iran, Barbie and Ken are outlawed because they are Western influences.

They were officially banned in January of last year. And just yesterday the Iranians outlawed Buddha so that it is now illegal to sell any doll of Buddha in Iran.

Barbie was created by a Jewish woman named Ruth Handler on March 6, 1959. Handler was the co founder of Mattel. She named the doll after her daughter Barbara and then, in 1961, when Ken came along she named him after her son.

It is intriguing to see that dolls can have such an impact on the world that one country bans them while another takes pictures of them and publishes those pictures as art.

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Sunday February 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Secretary General of the Hezbollah Sheik Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech from an undisclosed location. The speech was broadcast across Lebanon and Syria yesterday.

The speech was given to mark Martyrs Day and was entitle "The Road Back to Palestine."

In the most essential section of his speech Nasrallah spoke about Israeli attacks. And he described how Hezbollah is prepared for a confrontation with Israel.

Nasrallah - wily, deceptive, hateful Nasrallah - gave away a strategy.

The secretary general of Hezbollah explained that in Lebanon, they are used to power shortages but Israel will not be able to survive with a small power stoppage. Nasrallah said that they will target Israeli power sources and the entire country will buckle and fall into darkness.

Of course he is incorrect, but Nasrallah is thinking strategically.
He is trying to identify targets that will create the most pain for Israelis. Then he will try to evaluate how it is possible to effectively attack those targets.

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Saturday February 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The former prime minister of Syria, Riyad Hijab, appeared on Al Jazeera yesterday. Hijab offered important insight into the situation in Syria.

He stressed that the opposition will not compromise on their position that President Bashar Assad must leave.

He said that there is no way that Assad will step down from power peacefully and or his own accord.

He didn't say it in so many words, but we have a stalemate.

The most interesting point made during the interview came when Hijab asserted that Syria is actually being run by Iran.

We in the West have had a sense that the essential strategies of the regime’s battle against the rebels were decided by Iran. As a result of this interview we now know that the influence of Iran over Bashar Assad's Syria is wider and stronger than we possibly imagined.

With that information the pieces all fit into place. Now I fully understand how, against so many odds, the Assad regime has lasted so long and why it is not about to buckle anytime soon.

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Friday February 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A 16 year old boy was shot to death in Bahrain yesterday during protests marking the 2nd anniversary of the movement to challenge the monarchy.

As a result of the shooting the protests got much more violent. Movement leaders are calling for the masses to gather tomorrow at Lulu aka the Pearl Center of Manama, the capital city of Bahrain.
Lulu, as it is called, is the most recognizable symbol of Bahrain.

Two years ago, at the beginning of the protests, Lulu was the center of the protests - it was Bahrain's Tahrir Square.

At the time of the first protests police forcibly cleared Lulu and have kept it clear ever since. Calling protestors to mass there is an invitation for violence.

In the past two years the protests have not achieved much and not much has changed. Bahrain is composed of a majority of Shiites, but it is controlled by a minority Sunni leadership. It is about a 70 -30 split.

Shiites want more involvement in Bahrain society, specifically in job opportunities and in government. They have yet to find a way of achieving their goals. Increased violence is certainly not the way to go.

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February 14, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel broke its own record in 2012.

This past year, 400,000 Israelis visited Greece. When you think about it, 400,000 Israelis doing anything is impressive.

There are almost 8 million people currently live in Israel. That means that, statistically, one in every 16 Israelis visited Greece in 2012. In real terms, it probably means that some people visited Greece more than on time during the year. But the number is still very impressive.

Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni is actually on a trip to Israel to drum up even more tourism.

Israelis love to travel and they love junkets. Until recently Turkey was the pace to go. But ever since the May 31, 2010 flotilla debacle, Israelis have been reluctant to visit Turkey. As a reminder, the flotilla ship that Israel boarded was Turkish, tensions ensued, and since then Turkey has been on the warpath.

Israeli tourism to Turkey disappeared completely after the 2010 flotilla but it is now creeping up. Last year ELAL Airlines brought 270,000 Israelis to Turkey, the number for charter flights were negligible.

As much as they like to travel, Israelis like to be liked. Israelis are voting with their feet. So they are going to and spending money in Greece, the arch enemy of Turkey, instead of giving money to a country whose government is constantly, publicly, berating them.

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Wednesday February 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday North Korea conducted a nuclear test. They exploded a nuclear bomb that, according to Russian observers, was 7.5 kilotons. That makes this test a slightly larger version than their previous test explosions.

The test was met with condemnations from capital cities across the globe. But nothing more than condemnations and announcements.

Iran watches and learns from North Korea. In perfect, true-to-form Iranian style, they too condemned the North Korean test.

The North Koreans have been conducting nuclear tests since 2006 and almost nothing has happened to them because of their continued nuclear explosions and continued nuclear development.

That is precisely what Iran is counting on.

Certainly, boycotts and embargoes have been leveled against North Korea. But in general, they have been left alone.

Sounds like a plan for Iran. Last year Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak called North Korea an "ice breaking ship for Iran."

Everyone now observing the nuclear programs of both North Korea and Iran can only concur with the Barak analysis.

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Tuesday February 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech in which he said that he believes in a two-state solution. His ideal situation, he said, is two states for two peoples.

Why is this speech so significant? Because ever since his first speech on the subject, delivered on June 14, 2009 at Bar Ilan University, people have said that they do not believe him. They think Netanyahu said what he said at Bar Ilan because of pressure from the United States.

Many people do not trust Netanyahu. His detractors say that his actions over the ensuing three years did not lend credence or in any way support a two-state solution.

To quote the prime minister: "I believe that a framework to peace is what I outlined in my speech in Bar-Ilan University - two states for two peoples: A demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes the Jewish state."

But, Netanyahu cautioned, the Palestinians must remove their preconditions.

"To reach this solution means to negotiate in good faith. That means you don't place preconditions. For the past four years the Palestinians regrettably place preconditions, time after time. My hope is that they leave them aside and get to the negotiating table."

Obviously this speech yesterday was very well timed. Barack Obama, President of the United States, is planning to arrive in Israel on March 20th - exactly 5 weeks from now.

Meanwhile, the White House has made it clear that expectations should be lowered about this trip to the Mid East.

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Monday February 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has responded to the call for renew negotiations with the West.

Iranians are in mid-celebration of the 34th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. This is a good time to comment publicly about renewing negotiations and other issues of interest. Even Syrian President Bashar Assad took the opportunity to send congratulatory wishes.

Yesterday President Ahmadinejad announced that: "We are prepared to conduct talks but not under pressure, with a gun pointed at our heads." Of course, he then also continued to announce that Iran will be victorious over all its enemies.

The argument about not negotiating "with a gun pointed" at your head resonates powerfully. In essence, Iran is saying: What kind of negotiations do they want, do they want us to just accept the point of view of the United States, that is hardly a negotiation.

The Iranians have thought this out very well. Those non- Westerners paying attention to this conflict think that Iran is being reasonable when they volunteer to enter negotiations as equals, and not simply receive dictates and jump at every demand of the US.

Unfortunately they are correct. But there is more to the story.
The US and the West are now, finally, making demands of Iran because they realize that after years of failed negotiations Iran is steadily marching toward nuclear weapons.

I will say point blank that if the United States wants to get anywhere with Iran they must adopt very different tactics.

Sanctions and dictates have not and will not work. The carrot and the stick is what works. And the most important carrot for Iran is respect.

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Sunday February 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

In Egypt yesterday a court ruled to ban YouTube.
The logic is that on YouTube, anti-Muslim films are being circulated and - worse yet, viewed.

But despite the decision of the Egyptian court, Egypt cannot ban YouTube. They do not have the technology to ban or to block it. It is ridiculous to even think about.

YouTube is an essential vehicle for democracy movements. They film events and post videos of anti-democratic demonstrations. They post videos of police brutality. They post real time unedited tape of what is happening.

Banning YouTube in Egypt is like trying to forbid gravity from working within Egyptian borders. Whether they like it or not, it happens and there is nothing they can do about it. The best idea is to try to understand YouTube and use it for your advantage.

In and of itself, this ban tells us volumes about the attitude of Egyptian courts and leadership on modern technology and information and the dissemination of details and about the inner activities and workings in Egypt.

YouTube allows all of us "in." The leaders of Egypt do not want us to get too close and see too much. Egypt wants all of us to keep "out" of their business.

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Saturday February 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remember how impressed everyone was with the Iron Dome, the anti-rocket battery system that helped keep Israel safe during last year's operation known as Pillar of Defense.

Remember how when Hamas in Gaza was lofting hundreds of rockets into Israel and the Iron Dome shot them down.

Personally, I was so impressed with the results of this defensive system that on a yearend wrap-up on Shalom TV I suggested that the Iron Dome be the "Jewish Man of the Year for 2012."

It has now become clear that the operators of the batteries that save so many Israeli lives live in sub standard conditions. Their tents are pitched in water and the water seeps in. They are sleeping in water. Their only bathrooms are port-a-johns. They do not get hot food. They have not hot water.

Shame on the IDF!

Iron Dome operators of have no base to go home to during their three years of military service. Traditionally, an IDF combat soldier returns to base and gets a hot shower and kitchen cooked hot meal after completing a mission.

Quoting from YNet: "One soldier noted that sometimes the toilets get blown away by intense winds and that food delivery is often delayed. 'How hard or expensive can it be to find a solution for us?'"

The soldiers actually describe how parents organize hot food deliveries. These soldiers are entitled to much more. They are true heroes. At the very least they should be given a toilet and hot water and provided with a cot that does not sit in water.
Shame, shame on the IDF.

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Friday February 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian TV has been broadcasting testimonials by clerics justifying the public mass rape of women in Tahrir Square.

And at least three clerics have issued Fatwahs, religious edicts, calling upon Egyptians to kill opposition leaders. Some of these clerics have also read their statements on television.

This behavior is not new for Egypt. In the 1990's Fatwahs were issued against political leadership and many leaders were then assassinated. At that time is was all a part of an Islamic uprising.
This time around the Islamists are in power and they are the ones threatening to murder their opposition.

Listen to this dialogue from Egyptian TV:
A very popular Imam named Mahmoud Shaaban described the actions of the opposition, which is called the National Salvation Front, this way: they are "setting Egypt on fire to gain power." And so: "the verdict against them under God's law is death."

Shaaban called both Muhammed ElBaradei, the former UN Arms Inspector and Noble Prize winner, and Hamdeen Sabahi, another leader of the National Salvation Front, traitors.

In a TV interview Shaaban said that "they have repeatedly spoken about toppling Morsi." Later in the program he qualified his statements saying that the government should carry out the verdict, not private citizens. But he did not go so far as to urge citizens not to participate in assassinations.

In another striking and appalling statement another very popular Imam named Wagdi Ghoneim issued a video statement pleading with Morsi to crack down on the protestors throwing stones and shoes and shouting outside his palace. He said: "The verdict under Shariah for those who seek corruption on earth is to be fought, or crucified, or have their arms or legs cut off or be exiled from earth." In other words this Imam is saying that the protestors and those who lead them should be killed.

And then he added: "Strike with an iron fist. Otherwise, the country will be lost at your hand and they'll say it is your fault. They'll say Islam doesn't know how to rule and that it's the Islamists who wrecked the country."

Shaaban, on the other hand, said: "We will kill the criminals, the thugs, the thieves and those who give them money and those who help them with words. No mercy with them."

One cleric calls for the people to act. The other calls for the president to act. They are both calling for bloodshed. That's the new Egypt.

These are very bold, very public, statements. And if anything they are incitement to violence and murder. As we have already seen - in Egypt, a Fatwah is seen as a license to kill. In this case - it is a blessed license to kill.

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Thursday February 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A "faux pas" is a very embarrassing misspeak.

In French it actually means a "false step" or a "misstep." It is a gaffe and normally something that you would really regret having said.

The faux pas I am about to tell you about takes place at the Islamic Conference in Cairo. The same conference Ahmadinejad is attending.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is speaking and thanking the host, the president of Egypt. In addition to thanking him for hosting the conference, Abbas also wants to thank him for supporting the UN vote which changed the status of Palestinians.
But Abbas misspoke.

Abbas thanked Mubarak instead of Morsi.

Abbas began his comments with the words "President Mohammed Hosni."
He then stopped and corrected himself saying "Mohammed Morsi."
Mubarak's first name is Hosni. In the video, Morsi was pretty pokerfaced but he did show a real sign of frustration after the gaffe.

What caused Abbas to misspeak? He will never tell. We can conjecture, but we will never know for sure.

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Tuesday February 6, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been met with some serious negative receptions in Egypt.

While in a Cairo mosque, a Syrian living in Egypt tried to insult Ahmadinejad by throwing a shoe.

During a visit to Al Azhar University, a massive group of protestors swarmed around Ahmadinejad and tried to prevent his access to the university. Al Azhar University is, without a doubt, the greatest Sunni Islamic institution in the Muslim world.

The Salafis who partnered with the Muslim Brotherhood during the election but who are far more conservative than even the ruling Brotherhood Party, came out with a statement that Egypt should not normalize diplomatic relations with Shiite Iran.

There is ample Muslim law justifying the rift between the Sunnis and Shiites. This conflict is not simply about recent history. It is about basic, fundamental, differences in approach towards Islam.

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Tuesday February 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Islamic world is changing.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is visiting Egypt today. He will be there until Thursday. This is the first time an Iranian head of state has come to Egypt since 1979.

Ahmadinejad will be attending an Islamic conference on Wednesday and Thursday. But first, on Tuesday, he will be meeting with Egyptian leaders. Obviously, the president of Iran will meet with Egyptian political leadership.

More importantly, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will meet the Sunni leadership of Egypt. Egyptian Muslim Sunni leadership is the most important in the entire Muslim world and it all comes out of Al Azhar University in Cairo.

Iran represents Shiite Islam and Shiite and Sunni leadership has been at odds for 1,000 years. This attempt at reconciliation is a move to bridge a gap that has separated Muslims for centuries.

They will meet. And they will agree to disagree. They will agree on their mutual hatred of the United States, of the West and of Israel. They will agree to avoid the differences which have caused them so much hatred over the past 1,000 years.

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Monday February 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Army Chief of Staff Benny Ganz has just begun a five day trip to Washington, DC.

This is an essential trip not only for Israel but also for the United States. The purpose of this trip is to solidify relations and continue dialogue between the countries. It is critical in terms of planning and approval.

Ganz is very comfortable in DC. He was the Israeli army liaison in DC just a few years ago. He knows the players and they know him.
Specifically, Jerusalem and Washington will talk about Syria and about Iran. Then they will cover other problems in the region.
Most importantly Ganz will be testing the waters to make certain that the US and Israel see eye to eye on certain red lines.

Obviously there are major differences in points of view. The United States wants to hear that plans can be implemented that will help and not hurt the region. Think of this as a longer version of the briefings that led to the Israeli bombing of Syria last week.

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Sunday February 3, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It was a hoax. And much of Western intelligence swallowed it hook, line and sinker. I was no exception.

Last week I reported about an explosion in Fordo, the Iranian nuclear site located deep underground.

Intel from around the world was spinning. An explosion in a seemingly impregnable site deep underground, probably by sabotage, was big news. At the time I was shocked that the United States would not comment about the explosion and that there was little to no coverage of it in US press.

Turns out, it never happened. It was all a big - and convincing, hoax cooked up by Iran.

I assume that the purpose of the hoax was to smoke out saboteurs. A good way to monitor people they have suspicions about by gauging their reactions and levels of interest. A good method for checking on international spy agencies which want to know if their people were involved and reach out for more and more details. And that's when the Iranians spring their trap.

In this case the United States and the White House were correct. They repeatedly said that they have no details and no knowledge of an explosion in Fordo. I don't say this often, but kudos to the White House for acting responsibly vis a vis Iran. At least, this time.

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Saturday February 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

For nine days there have been massive riots in Egypt. They are getting worse and more violent by the day.

The riots are demanding that Morsi step down. Dozens of Egyptians have been killed every day. The numbers of total deaths has reached over a hundred.

Police are brutal in putting down the protests. The army is waiting to see what they should do.

Protestors have tried to storm the presidential palace. They have succeeded in throwing stones and shoes and even firebombs into the compound.

Stones and firebombs are obvious. But shoes?
The throwing of shoes is a curse in Islam. The throwing of a shoe is a statement of serious rejection of a person and their ideas.

We will see what happens in the coming few days. Will the police clamp down more and will the Muslim Brotherhood take to the streets to defend their leader and confront the protestors.

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Friday February 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Predictably enough, the day after Israel conducted an airstrike against a Syrian target a flurry of responses came flying.

The Syrian Electronic Army claimed to have attacked 60 Israeli websites. When the story was checked out it was discovered that only a few of the 60 sites on their list were actually down, and some were down due to internal issues. But there was great bravado on the part of the Syrian Electronic Army.

The Iranians said that Tel Aviv would pay for the Israeli air strike.

The Arab League condemned the strike.

Now - it is still unclear what was targeted in the strike.

If you believe the Syrians, a weapons factory was hit and four guards were killed. The factory was part of their poison gas program.

The United States and Israel are saying that a convoy of trucks carrying Russian made SA-17 missiles destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon was hit. For Israel and the US the rockets were a game changer and could not be allowed to reach their destination.

The truth, I assume, is probably a combination of the two. Israel probably hit both the poison gas weapons factory and the convoy. It would not have been too difficult a task to accomplish.

Syrian air force and anti-air craft batteries are now on high alert. I find that funny because there is almost no chance that Israel will strike two nights in a row. But you never know.

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Thursday January 31, 2013
I've Been Thinking:

Many issues are afoot.

This past week Abdullah King of Jordan met Haled Mashal, the Hamas politburo chief, in Amman.

We were told that the discussion was about Palestinian statehood. We naturally assumed that Abdullah was trying to convince Mashal to reconcile with Abbas so that the Palestinians can unite and make a state.

Well, not quite. It seems that one of the things they discussed was a way to empower Abdullah so that he becomes a mediator between Hamas and the United States.

There is more. We are now being told that Mashal asked the King of Jordan to deliver a message to President Obama informing that Hamas now accepts the idea of two states.

That information must be verified and then, if it is true, it must be publicly pronounced.

There is no question about it - if Hamas announces that they accept the idea of two states it removes one major obstacle in the path of the United States leading to direct discussions with Israel.

Of course, there are several other huge problems to be overcome before Israel and any Palestinians sit down and talk. One of the most significant is the sponsorship of terror by Hamas.

But there is no doubt that the US would look very positively on Hamas if they publicly announced their recognition of Israel within the '67 borders.

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January 30, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate approved John Kerry as the next Secretary of State of the United States.
The vote was 94 in favor and 3 opposed.

That should be no surprise.

The big event will be Thursday when Chuck Hagel comes before the subcommittee. They will grill him. Grill him about what he said and what he thinks about Iran and about Israel and about the role of the United States.

The biggest question will be what Hagel thinks the US world view should be.

Is Hagel an isolationist? If he is might possibly nix him - the only thing that might nix his appointment.

Nothing short of that will tarnish Obama's Hagel nomination.

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Tuesday January 29, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has repositioned one of the batteries on the supper effective anti-rocket system ... called the Iron Dome.

The Israelis moved a set of Iron Dome anti-rocket rockets to a site just outside the city of Safed.

The Iron Dome is the system that, without a doubt, saved hundreds if not thousands of lives during Operation Pillar of Defense that took place late last year. The land-to-air system locks on to incoming rockets, triangulates and then shoots. As it travels at extremely high speeds the Iron Dome re-triangulates and then destroys the incoming rockets mid-air so that they do not hit their targets.

The Iron Dome was created to combat against Hamas in Gaza and the incessant launching of rockets into Israel.

So why has an Iron Dome battery been moved all the way up north to be near the near the city if Safed?

The answer is Hezbollah. There is real fear in Israel that Hezbollah will again start to lob rockets into Israel- maybe even gas filled rockets. Repositioning the Iron Dome serves both to protect and to intimidate.

It is to let Hezbollah know that Israel will shoot down any foreign object entering their air space.

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Monday January 28, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

This story has still not been covered by Western press.

Earlier last week there was a huge explosion in Fordo, the 2nd most important nuclear development site in Iran. The blast was so huge that people felt it miles away. The Teheran-Qoms highway which runs close to the site of the blast was closed for hours.

Fordo has 2,700 nuclear rods, or centrifuges. It is a serious atomic location, second only to Natanz which has 10,000 nuclear rods.
Fordo was always thought to be impregnable. It is built deep into a mountain and is totally underground. It is so deep underground that bunker buster bombs have been thought to be useless against it.

But this explosion was not spontaneous, it was not some freak accident. The report on the incident suggests that it was an act of sabotage.

That proves that saboteurs and spies can get anywhere.

When you add this act of sabotage at Fordo to the computer attacks that have been plaguing Iran and the continued accidents happening around the country you can only come to the conclusion that an anti-Iranian nuclear program is in place.

There is clearly a system set up to destroy the Iranian atomic infrastructure. And it is doing a good job of it.

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Sunday January 27, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The World Economic Conference in Davos just ended. Leaders have gone their separate ways, some to attend other conferences.

The African Union Summit followed Davos. It was there that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas stood up early Sunday morning and said that "the Israeli coalition's makeup might change, but the Palestinian's demands for the negotiations will not change."
Abbas made clear exactly what Palestinian demands are: "the freezing of settlement construction, releasing prisoners and solving the core issues like Jerusalem and the refugees."

The most interesting insight to emerge from the recent Israeli election and the formation of the new coalition is that the Palestinian issue is not a significant variable. In fact, it is way down the list of priorities and, for some, it is a negative issue.

Despite lip service from the White House saying that the Palestinian issue is important and lip service from the Arab world saying it is important, there has been almost no pressure on Israel or on the Palestinians to solve the problem.

That is revealing.

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Saturday January 26, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Torching is a mode of communication in Egypt. In Egypt, they torch things.

Until now I have spent quite some time explaining that the Islamists of Egypt have torched Christian sites. Well, the tables have been turned.

Yesterday the Islamic Brotherhood offices in Ismailia Egypt were torched. Youths broke in and set the office on fire. And in three other cities in Egypt similar clashes occurred between the police and youths protesting the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood.

There were huge demonstrations.

In Cairo the police shot tear gas into the crowd to prevent them from storming the presidential palace.

In Alexandria a court was attacked by demonstrators shouting "Muslim Brotherhood this is the last day for you."
In Suez 4 people were killed. 186 civilians and 45 security personnel were wounded.

It all happened as the result of anti-Morsi, anti-Brotherhood, demonstrations that turned into riots. And it took place on the second anniversary of the revolt that ousted Hosni Mubarak.

What the Egyptians really need now is stability and tourism to jumpstart their economy. But there will be no tourists, no jumpstart and no stability. There will be more violence.

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Friday January 25, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Forging a coalition is without a doubt the most difficult part of the election process in Israel.

After a long, hard fought and often ugly election battle, compromises and promises must be made in order to obtain the required 60 Knesset seats. Election planks and platforms are first weighed and then cast away in favor of the issues of power, control and of course, prestige.

Well before results were in, Netanyahu called potential coalition partners. Immediate calls went out to ultra orthodox Shas which then won 11 seats, ultra orthodox United Torah which then won 7 seats and the anti ultra orthodox Yesh Atid (There is a Future) which in the end won 19 seats immediately.

But Netanyahu did not call his natural partner, Ha Bayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home) party, a modern Zionist orthodox party which garnered 12 seats until late Thursday. And there is a simple reason for that.

Netanyahu's wife Sara did not want him to make the call. There is bad blood between the leader of The Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, and Sara Netanyahu. It goes all the way back to the time when Bennett was chief of staff in the office of the prime minister.

No doubt there has been much pressure in the Netanyahu household to avoid a connection with Bennett. Netanyahu needs to weigh the sides - the wrath of his wife or a successful coalition insuring his position as prime minister. It is not an easy decision to make.

Sarah has a strong hold on her man. But the prime ministry may be even stronger - and, despite the protestations and a clash of personalities, Bennett can only help Netanyahu.

Sara will probably lose this battle, but she will come back later with a vengeance.

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Wednesday January 23, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Elections in Israel are over -- finally. Now the real work begins.

The earliest and the most obvious result to come in from this election is that the polls were off, really off. If polling in general is difficult, polling Israelis is nearly impossible.
Israelis never vote for what they want.

Israelis vote to punish or to check or counter check.
Because almost no Israeli actually votes because they support a particular point of view, the swing vote is more volatile than any mathematical variable.

In the end Netanyahu's combined party of Likud - Beiteinu got 33 seats. The second largest party won 19 seats and it is the brand new party called Yesh Atid which means "there is a future". Yesh Atid is lead by brand new party head Yair Lapid, a former pro soccer player, tv talk show star and media personality. He is the son of Tommy Lapid who was an outspoken and even more popular media personality who also used his fame as a catapult into politics. His mother is one of Israel's leading authors.

Yair learned well from the father. His party ran on an anti'ultra religious platform. The most significant point it embraces is a universal draft - a direct assault on the ultra-religious and one more socially progressive policies - another assualt. He is realistic on Palestinian peace.

Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party could hold some important cards if they join the Likud - Beiteinu coalition.

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Tuesday January 22, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israelis are about to vote.

On the lighter side, one candidate's water broke and she ran to the hospital with Zippi Livni, the party head, accompanying her.

On a more serious note, and this is an issue that concerns me a lot, on the eve of the election Shas is giving out blessings and amulets in exchange for votes.

The amulets are called kamayahs.

Giving blessings in exchange for a vote is totally illegal. It is even more powerful an incentive in certain communities than paying people to vote.

The kamayahs come from Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, the spiritual leader of the Shas party and one of the undisputed greatest rabbis in the world today. So even non religious people and certainly people who are religious will vote in exchange for a kamayah that promises economic success.

Shas was fined 37000 shekels which is a out $9000.

The fine is a drop in the bucket and will have no impact.
The kamayah will most certainly have an impact on this election.

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Monday January 21, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Rioting has rocked Alexandria, Egypt for the past two days. The rioters burned down a court house and the police trucks that transport riot police.

These riots are taking place outside the court that is hearing the case of six policemen on trial for using excessive force in January and February of 2011. The court house is located near the Italian consulate. Without explanation, the judge trying the case stepped down yesterday.

Egypt is about to commemorate the 2nd anniversary of the rebellion that ousted Hosni Mubarak. That rebellion began on January 25 and ended when Mubarak stepped down on February 11. About 900 people were killed in the uprising, 300 in Alexandria.

Riots are also taking place in Cairo. Four people died and twelve were wounded including two police officers during the conflict with police and it still does not appear that quiet has been restored to either Alexandria or Cairo.

As we get closer and closer to January 25 and February 11 Egypt will be swept up in even more violence and even more conflict. The countdown has begun.

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Sunday January 20, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli election is just hours away. Tensions are rising. Hatred and anger are permeating the process.

Some of the smaller parties with no chance of getting the minimum number of votes needed to attain seats in the Knesset are dropping out.

Shas leader Ovadia Yosef has proclaimed that the newly reconstituted Jewish Home party, in Hebrew called HaBayit HaYehudi, formerly called the National Religious Party, is composed of thugs and not only are they thugs but they are not even religious thugs.
And some very troubling graffiti has been scrawled in public places.

In big black letters, on the outside wall of the new break-off party called the Movement, or Hatenuah in Hebrew, someone wrote: Yigal Amir was right.

Yigal Amir is the convicted assassin of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. His stated reason for the assassination was Rabin’s desire to pursue a peace treaty with the Palestinians.

Hatenuah is a centrist left party. While it embraces a peace agenda, that is hardly the only plank in their platform. But they are likely to be one of the largest parties wanting to advance the peace process.

Any reference to violence - especially talk of assassination, must be condemned by all parties. I repeat, condemned by all parties.

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Saturday January 19, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Christians are once again being attacked in Egypt.

In the province of Qena, Christian shops and the local churches were firebombed and stoned. The violence began when Muslims left their Mosques after midday Friday prayers.

The claim is that a Christian owner of one of the Christian shops molested a Muslim girl and that was what triggered the mobs to attack Christian businesses and churches and other properties.

In an unusual and nearly unprecedented act the police arrived at the scene of the massive mobs, shot tear gas into the groups to disperse the crowd and attempted to restore order.

Qena is situated halfway between the Northern cities and the resorts of the Red Sea. It is situated on the east bank of the Nile.
Despite the green beauty of the vegetation and the perfect location for travelers, Qena has been hard hit in these difficult economic times in Egypt.

Tension between the Christian minority and the Muslim majority in the region is as common as it is extremely violent. And rest assured it is not going away.

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Friday January 18, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama is most likely going to appoint Denis McDonough as his 6th chief of staff. McDonough is currently the Deputy National Security Adviser.

General agreement has it that McDonough is well respected in the White House and that the President likes and trusts him a lot.

He is from Minnesota. He is one of 11 children.

After coming to DC to study for a master's degree at Georgetown University, McDonough spent his entire career on the Hill. He was aide to the House Committee on International Affairs. He was a staffer for several senators.

And in the 2008 election McDonough was one of the key foreign policy people in the Obama campaign.

To gauge just how much a part of the inner circle McDonough is, take another look at the now famous picture of the War Room during the raid on Osama bin Laden. McDonough is the one sitting right next to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

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Thursday January 17, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is expanding its space program and is going to send a monkey into space in February. The last time they tried this, the monkey died.

Hamid Fazeli, Iran's Director of Space, said yesterday that Iran would be entering another rocket into space as part of the 34th Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Their revolution took place in 1979.

Surprisingly, Iran has a very successful space program. They have successfully launched at least three satellites. The Omid in February of 2009, Rassad in June of 2011 and Navid in February of 2012. The Iranians had planned on another launch in May.
Other than the monkey, Iran has successfully sent other animals in to space including a turtle, a rat and worms. They are plans for a human launch sometime before 2020.

I monitor the Iranian space program because the exact same capabilities needed for space launches are needed to launch nonconventional warheads.

No puns intended, the Iranians are advancing their space program at rocket speeds. Unlike their nuclear programs, their space program flies under the radar of international weapon monitors.

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Wednesday January 16, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the UN which is head quartered in Vienna, Austria has arrived in Iran.

The IAEA arrived in order to attempt to jump start their inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. The most important item on the IAEA agenda is to create a framework through which they can then approach their purpose and fulfill their mission in Iran.

Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to the press yesterday before taking off for Iran.

Nackaerts acknowledged that it is an open secret that Iran does not wish the IAEA to succeed. Still, there is a small possibility that a framework may yet be hammered out.

Iran is not against the principle of the inspections. And that is the IAEA ace in the hole.

They just don't intend for the IAEA to find anything. But that's another story.

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Tuesday January 15, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leadership in Gaza made an important announcement yesterday.
They will shut down all tunnels.

The tunnels run from Egypt into Gaza. Almost everything is brought through those tunnels except for weapons, explosives and rockets. Even trucks and livestock come into Gaza by way of tunnels.

So why did Palestinian leadership in Gaza shut down the tunnels thereby halting the import of many and necessary goods? Because the weather was endangering the goods and the lives of workers.

Too many tunnels have collapsed because of the many rains this season. The other day six workers were lost in the tunnels.

The tunnels are actually illegal in the eyes of Israel and Egypt. They are perfectly legal to the Palestinians. Legal, but now unsafe.

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Sunday January 13, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, during the wee hours of the morning, just before sunrise - 200 Palestinians joined by foreign activists came to the area known as E-1 and started pitching tents.

E-1 is the area that received prominence immediately after the UN General Assembly decision changing Palestinian status to that of observer. It received prominence and attention because immediately after the UN vote Israel announced that it would be building in E-1. And that announcement was met with international outrage aimed at Israel.

In reality, Israel did not build in E-1 - they just announced plans.

Now Palestinians have erected a temporary outlet there.

The Israeli Supreme Court will most certainly rule that the Palestinian tents must be evacuated. There is no doubt that the outpost is a provocation.

And yet, I have heard no international outcry against the Palestinians. The international community is probably waiting for Israel to initiate the evacuation - then there will be an outrage.

The inconsistency and the irony should not be lost.

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Saturday January 12, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

It happened again yesterday. And it is extremely embarrassing.

A US nuclear submarine struck a ship in the Straits of Hormuz. No one was hurt. But the periscope of the sub was destroyed.

Evidently, the sub hit a fishing boat with its periscope. No damage was done to the civilian fishing vessel. According to an official Navy report, after the incident the fishing boat continued along unnoticed and unchanged in speed.

The statement from the 5th fleet reads "continued on a consistent course and speed offering no indication of distress or acknowledgment of a collision."

This is just one of many instances of US naval ships ramming one another and other vessels in the very narrow, very crowded, Straits of Hormuz.

It proves several important points:
The Straits are very hard to navigate.

The home team advantage goes to Iran which has much smaller subs.
For the US, even the best and most technologically proficient ships cannot be on top of one another without hitting one another.

Believe me, the Iranians are getting a good laugh about this - and it is at the expense of the United States.

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Friday January 11, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Egypt appear to be mending fences.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akhbar Salehi visited Egypt yesterday. The press coverage of the visit underplayed the dramatic differences between the two countries.

The differences are gargantuan. Iran and Egypt are diametrically opposed over Syria. Religiously, one is a Shiite country and the other Sunni. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979 and then the assassination of Egyptian President Sadat there has been nothing more than a frigid cold relationship between the two nations - and it has never thawed. Iran even named a main square in Teheran after Sadat's assassin.

The Iranian Foreign Minister, a Shiite, spent some time meeting with new Egyptian President Morsi, a Sunni, and other Egyptian Sunni leaders. He met with Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb, the Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar - one of the most prestigious centers of learning in the Sunni world

The leaders attempted to put on the face of unity. President Morsi was invited to visit Iran. They emphasized their commonalities and their similar orientation.

But it is nearly impossible to unite Shiite and Sunni. It is not just about centuries old injustices. It is also about injustices that took place recently.

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Thursday January 10, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is not happy about being in the limelight because of President Obama's decision to choose Charles Hagel, the former Republican senator from Nebraska, as his candidate for secretary of defense.

The position Israel has been thrust into is one of the most uncomfortable positions a country can be in vis a vis the United States.

The debate over Hagel has turned into a question of how critical one can be of Israel and still remain in the mainstream of politics and power in DC. Israelis cringe when the issue moves to the power of the American Jewish community and the power of the Israeli lobby.

Without meaning to, pro Hagel Israeli well wishers have started sounding like anti-Semites and anti Hagel Jews are sounding like people who see anti-Semites lurking behind every bush.

Yes, Hagel has been very critical of Israel. So has President Obama. I don't think that he should be given the position, but Charles Hagel will almost surely become the new secretary of state.

I don't think he is appropriate for the position not because of his stance on Israel. Hagel shoots form the hip, he enjoys controversy. I don't think that those are qualities that the United States needs or wants in a secretary of defense.

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Wednesday January 9, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Western leaders have been keeping the truth from the public on the status of lethal gas in their country.

In what must be an attempt to avoid mass panic, they have not let it be known that Syrian rebel fighters are in possession of poison gas agents. Now let me remind you about who Syrian rebel forces are - they are either out and out al Qaeda members or al Qaeda affiliate members. How did they get them? Defectors brought the components with them when they joined the rebels and they also captured some. The US actually has trained rebels in how to deactivate and secure the gas when it is captured. The opposite side of the same coin is knowing how to activate and use the poison gas. These rebels were trained by CIA personnel in Jordan.

To make matters even worse, Assad has supplied Hezbollah with the gas. He did this in order to get them out the range of the rebels.

Poisonous gas falling into the hands of terrorists was supposed to be a red line in the sand for Western leaders. Supposed to be, but is not. In the north of Syria near Aleppo, serious fighting is taking place in the town of Al Safira - a short 1.5 miles away from a base that contains the largest stockpile of gas in Syria.

The rebels want to get into that base. Assad fought hard to protect it. The Russians actually came to his rescue and helped secure the poisons. The United States is still unclear if this deadly weapon was simply shored up or if the gas was relocated.

Either way the question right now is who will be the first to use poison gas as a weapon - will it be the rebels or will it be the regime.

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Tuesday January 8, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

A new Pew Center poll just came out. The results are surprising and it is essential to publicize and learn from them.

The new Pew poll shows exactly the same information it has shown for the past consecutive six years.

50% of Americans sympathize with Israel
10% sympathize with the Palestinians
13% say that they do not sympathize with either side
23% do not even offer an opinion on the subject.

When you look at Democrats only, the percentage that sympathizes with Israel is much smaller. Only 33% of Democrats side with Israel while 22% sympathize with the Palestinians.

Although the trend is not fluctuating, several of these numbers are very troubling.

The fact that only 1/3 of Democrats are pro-Israel and 1/4 are pro-Palestinian is deeply worrisome can lead to an erosion of the support that Israel receives from the United States. If the strength and support Israel receives from the United States is to remain a foreign policy assumption, the numbers of Democrats supporting Israel must be shorn up and expanded.

If that doesn't happen, Israel might turn into just any other country in the eyes of America.

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Monday January 7, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday President Mahmoud Abbas gave the order for Palestinians to change their official name from "The Palestinian Authority" to "The State of Palestine."

All literature and all symbols are to be changed immediately to reflect their new status.

Abbas and company are riding the wave of their success at the UN. The UN vote changed their status to that of observer state in the United Nations. That vote, even though it passed, was a violation of the UN charter.

This move is even a greater violation. It is a violation of the treaties signed between Israel, the Palestinians and the United States in the Oslo Accords.

The name Palestinian Authority was supposed to be the interim title of the entity to be changed to something more permanent after a negotiated settlement that would create the State of Palestine.

Unilaterally announcing the name change will further push off negotiations and mutual agreements between Israel and the Palestinians.

I wonder how the United States, Israel and Western Europe will react. I wonder if they will react.

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Saturday January 5, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Remember the announcement about building in the area known as E-1?

Remember that announcement that came the day after the UN vote to change Palestinian status. Remember the announcement that caused the world to stand up and condemn Israel. Remember the announcement that resulted in Israeli ambassadors around the world being called in to their host countries in order to explain themselves.

Well, it seems that the announcement was just that - only an announcement. The plans were approved long ago when Yitzhak Rabin was prime minister. The they were put in a drawer. After the UN vote Israel dusted them off to use as rhetoric. These were simply plans to build 3000 housing units in E-1.

The great part about plans on paper that came out of a drawer is that they can be put right back in. And it seems that is what has happened.

In politics and in diplomacy there is a huge difference between announcing something and actually doing it. In this case Israel wanted to tell the world that they were the masters of their own destiny. No matter how much flack they would take, they alone would decide what was in their own best interest.

The most critical Israeli point of the entire announcement was that Israel was declaring that if the Palestinians were taking unilateral steps (by going to the UN) then Israel would, also unilaterally, announce the building of 3000 new housing units in E-1.

In diplomacy rhetoric is seldom what it seems. The louder the message the more likely it is to be misleading.

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Friday January 4, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Lebanese have launched an investigation.

A bag containing four peppers was discovered in the Spinneys food store in Sidon. And in the bag the word Israel appeared. The authorities and the army were called in - and they found ten other bags. They also discovered that the original barcode was scratched out and a new code had been attached.

Israeli products in Lebanon.

This is not the first time. There actually are many Israeli products to be found in Lebanon, but most are technology and biotech and medical products. And there are many who are up in arms about those also.

Spinneys is the largest food supermarket in the Middle East. Now headquartered in Dubai, it was originally opened in Egypt in 1924 by a British soldier. Spinneys has huge purchase power and transport/delivery power. They buy products internationally and send them wherever they need to go based on quality and price.

These peppers, like many fruits and vegetables in the Middle East, were purchased in Israel and then the labels were swapped in Cyprus. Cyprus is where much of these things happen. Cyprus is the perfect, if you will, middle man.

Unbeknownst to many haters of Israel there are probably many, many rewrapped and repackaged Israeli products including meats, vegetables and technology now are sold in the Arab countries.

Those who boycott Israel are actually, albeit unwittingly, enjoying and savoring some of Israel's best products.

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Thursday January 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Look at Syria with a critical eye.

If Assad is ousted, it is almost certain that the regime that replaces him will be a regime that embraces Islam as law. It will be an Islamist government. If Assad is ousted, the regime that replaces him will almost definitely be anti-Western, anti-United States and anti those who disagree.

The astounding part of this analysis is that, historically, Syria had tended to be anti-militant. In fact, the vast majority of today's Syrians rejected the Muslim Brotherhood which has been a presence in Syria for decades.

So why shift now? Part of the answer has to do with who the people involved in the rebellion against Assad. Outside forces, like al
Qaeda, have been playing a large role in Syrian politics. In addition, the Salafis - who make the Muslim Brotherhood look liberal, have been centrally involved in Syrian politics. And of course, Jahbat al Nusra, which the US State Department labeled as a terrorist organization, is garnering more and more support within Syria.

Jahbat al Nusra wants shariah, Islamic law, to prevail. They have forbidden the use of tobacco and they have been known to pull cigarettes out of mouths as people pass through checkpoints .
Bottom line: despite their secular proclivities, the Syrian masses have begun to embrace the Islamists.

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Wednesday January 2, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics just came out with a study and a prediction.

They say that by 2016 there will be an even amount of Jews and Palestinians living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. And by 2020, they say, Palestinians will significantly outnumber Israelis.

There are 11.6 Palestinians across the world. 4.4 million live in the West Bank and Gaza. (2.7in the West Bank, 1.7 in Gaza). The study suggests that there will be 6.5 million by 2016 and 7.2 million by 2020.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics bureaucrats are hoping that their study will lead to a huge demographic crisis with Israel. But they are wrong.

One of the main reasons for Israel's unilateral evacuation of Gaza was to push off that demographic inevitability. And the demographic reality is a major push factor for creating a Palestinians State in the West Bank.

Without their highlighting it, this Palestinian study proves the opposite of their intended conclusion. The demographic crisis will not happen.

Since 1997 the average Palestinian family has declined in size from 6.4 per family to 5.6. That is a severe drop in just a decade. If that trend continues --- and there is no reason to assume it will not because as societies become more comfortable they have few children --- the number will decline even further.

This trend of smaller and smaller Palestinian families has proven true over the past few decades. The natural growth rate for Israeli Jews will continue to remain constant at 5.6, if there is any change it will be an increased family size.

In sum, the 1,648,000 Arabs living in Israel are not a serious demographic threat. Two years ago Arabs in Israel numbered 1,535,573 which amounted to 20.1 % of Israel's population. Today they are at 20.6%.

That increase in population is hardly a threat and it does not indicate a crisis on the horizon.

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Tuesday January 1, 2013

I've Been Thinking:

Christianophobia is the name of a new study from England published by the highly regarded think tank Civitas.

The study documents how the Christian community of the Middle East is being targeted and is in rapid decline. It states that there is a direct correlation between the rise of militant Islam and the persecution of Christians.

The Civitas study asserts that Christian leaders and others do not stand up and defend the persecuted Christians because they fear being labeled as racist.

The study expresses the fear that there will continue to be more persecution. It asserts that The Muslim world mistakenly understands Christianity to be a Western religion.

The Christianophobia study argues that over the past 100 years 1/3 to 1/2 of all Christians who lived in the Middle East have either been killed or fled. Where Christians once made up 20% of the Middle East, they now make up 5%.

An interesting twist to this study was added by the Hebrew news website YNET, the website of the mass distributed newspaper Yediot Ahronot.

YNET discloses that there are 158,000 Christians living in Israel and that is 2% of the Israeli population. In the year 2000 when the Pope visited there were 130,000 Christians in Israel. In Israel, the Christian population is thriving. Christian have the highest graduation rate of any group in Israel - 64% for Christians, 59% for Jews and 48% for Muslims.

Israel is the exception in the Christianophobia study.

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Monday December 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Arab League visited Ramallah together with the Egyptian foreign minister yesterday.

They of course congratulated President Mahmoud Abbas on his UN victory and explained that they must continue pushing in that vein in order to achieve Palestinian statehood.

Now for the kicker: Last month the Arab League promised to contribute $100 million dollars a month to keep the Palestinian Authority afloat.

The real reason for this visit was to explain that the money is not coming. Not this month - and maybe not at all. Certainly, not in the numbers that were proclaimed and broadcast across the world.

This is the reality. The only group that really gives significant money to the Palestinians is the United States. And it is for that reason if no other that the US should have been much more forceful about stopping the PA from making their move in the UN.

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Sunday December 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda has posted a reward, or even better, a bounty of 3 kilos of gold for the murder of the US Ambassador stationed in Sanaa, Yemen. In US dollars that is roughly equivalent to $160,000.

Al Qaeda also said that that they will pay 5 million Yemeni Riyals, about $23,000, for killing any US soldier.

The announcements went up on al Qaeda sites across the internet.
They explain that they are offering the gold and cash rewards to "inspire and encourage our Muslim nation for jihad."

Al Qaeda is constantly in search of tools for motivation. This is just another very good example.

In this example Al Qaeda is not looking for recruits or planning attacks. In this case they are hoping that highly motivated lone wolves will act on their own. The lone wolf is almost impossible to stop in advance.

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Saturday December 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli elections are around the corner, scheduled to take place on January 22nd. Conventional wisdom has it that the Likud Israel Beiteynu party will win the most seats.

But the most recent polling is telling another story. All three recent polls show that the newly combined party is slipping. It is slipping so far down that the polls are now only giving Likud Israel Beiteynu 33 seats.

Of the 120 Knesset seats, right now the polls are giving the left bloc about 43 seats and the right bloc about 47 seats. The Ashkenazi Hareidi party appears stable at 6 seats and the Sefardi Hareidi party is showing 11. All three Arab parties combined, Taal Hadash and Balad, also come to 11 seats.

Of the 43 on the left, Labor has 17, Hatuna combined with Yesh Atid gets 11 and Meretz gets 5.

The big winner is Habayit Hayehudi which is a revamp of the old National Religious Party (NRP). It is polling at 15 and is grabbing voters from Likud.

That only leaves 2 seats open for play.

A month ago I assumed that Likud would walk away with this election with a huge plurality. I must revise my estimate. Likud Israel Beiteynu will still be the largest party, but not by as much as I originally thought. I had also thought that Labor had seen its last days. Now it looks like Habayait Hayehudi will be the third largest party in the next Knesset and that Labor has new life and will once again come in second.

The older parties have been reinvented. Their new incarnations are grabbing voters.

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Friday December 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Muslim extremism is taking a new path in Germany.

On Christmas Day a university student from India was walking home in Bonn, Germany when Muslim men stopped him. They asked him what religion he was.

And then they demanded that he convert to Islam. They warned him that if he declined - they would cut out his tongue.

The young man just ignored them and continued walking. Two men tackled him from behind and beat him. And they took out a knife and cut his tongue.

The attackers ran, jumped into a car and sped away. Hopefully, they will be found and brought to justice in Germany.

Police in Bonn confirmed the incident and said an investigation is ensuing. The university student was taken to a local hospital and his name has not been released.

Germany is a Western democracy. One of the definitions of Western democracy is agreeing to disagree.

How can anyone in a Western democracy even begin to justify these actions to themselves and to others? How can a group of young men roam the streets and not be condemned by their own peers who should be telling them their action is reprehensible and unacceptable?

This act is the height of arrogance.

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Thursday December 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Israeli news stations have citied a report that ran in the London based Arabic daily Al Quds al Arabi. The report, which ran yesterday, said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had visited Amman, Jordan and had a long extensive discussion with King Abdullah.

This is not farfetched. And it has been confirmed by several members of the prime minister's inner circle.

The main topic of their discussion was the threat posed by Syria should they use non-conventional weapons.

Israel confirmed that they believe that the weapons are currently safely stored in Syria. They could not be certain, however, as to whether or not any chemical weapons have yet to be used during the conflict.

Israel and Jordan have history. In 1994 Jordan and Israel signed a peace treaty but recently King Abdullah has been very critical of Israel and of Netanyahu.

There is important symbiosis between Israel and Jordan. They need one another and they especially need intelligence from one another. And they share enemies - and these enemies work tirelessly towards the destruction of both Jordan and of Israel.

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Wednesday December 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Guess what?

Iran has just announced that they will conduct another set of maneuvers in the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf over the weekend.

The commander of the Iranian navy made the announcement yesterday.
The war games will encompass one million square km. It will include navy, air force and ground missile systems.

The announcement asserts that the exercises are purely defensive.

The commander of the Iranian navy is correct in that the real objective of the maneuvers two fold. First, it is all a show, a grand, show. For internal consumption it will show the Iranians that they are a formidable force. And it will show the rest of the world, all of which will be watching, that Iran is not a push over.

The second and more important objective of these exercises is training. The Iranian navy is in need of training and rehearsal.
This really is, even more than a show, a training maneuver.

The Iranians know how to work a public relations angle, they know how to spin a story.

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Tuesday December 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is Christmas and that means that churches and Christianity will be under attack by hateful Muslims around the world.

It used to be that these attacks took place almost exclusively in the Middle East and in Muslim countries - but this year Christian communities in Austria and Australia have also been under attack.

The largest mosque on the Australian continent is the Lakemba Mosque, located in the suburb of Sydney called Lakemba in New South Wales. A fatwa, or religious edict, was issued on their Facebook page saying that it is a sin to celebrate any form of Christmas.

The Mosque caught a huge amount of blowback and took down the posting, but the sentiment was clear.

In Austria three churches were set on fire. All the churches were in the city of Amstetten and they were most probably targeted by the same arsonist or arsonists. One of the churches was set ablaze while services were in session. Pictures of the fires show significant damage to the buildings.

Attacks against churches will continue during Christmas season. The purpose is to lash out at Christian success. It is religious persecution born out of jealousy. What a way to prepare to welcome the year 2013.

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Monday December 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A few weeks ago I reported that the US 5th fleet was stationed off the coast of Syria. Well, it has just pulled back and is now on its way back to Bahrain.

The 5th fleet is composed of dozens of ship and tens of fighter jets and a fighting force of 4,000. The aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower is the focal point of the fleet.

Why is the fleet leaving?

Probably because the Russians are coming back to Syria. No one wants a conflict in Syria between Russia and the United States.

After the US gave Syria's neighbors Turkey and Jordan patriot missiles, Russia countered by giving Syria five sets of the modern and extremely effective hypersonic rocket system called the Iskander. It has a range of 280 miles and can fly 1.3 miles per second with a 1,500 lb. warhead.

The Russians have already trained the Syrians on how to use the rocket system. This system has yet to be beaten. The Iskander gives Syrian forces a major advantage over all encroaching forces.

It is a defensive weapon and no foreign attacking rocket or aircraft is safe when the Iskander is in the area.

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Saturday December 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Chuck Hagel, the former Republican senator from Nebraska, has not been formerly nominated by the president - but he is the leading candidate for Secretary of Defense.

I am against the appointment - but not for the standard reasons. I will admit that Hagel has positioned himself against Israeli and, at times, against classical Western diplomatic policies especially when suggesting a sit down with Iran or when refusing to sign on to a letter condemning Hezbollah.

On these issues he is simply wrong. And there is place for disagreement. Hagel is not a friend of Israel but neither is he an enemy. Just because you are not a friend it does not necessarily follow that you are an enemy.

So why am I opposed to Hagel becoming the next United States Secretary of Defense? Hagel is a poor choice because of his personality. Hagel enjoys making people angry, he enjoys throwing out controversial comments and ideas. He loves to get a rise out of people. He gets a perverse thrill out of it.

That is not the kind of character that should be heading the DOD.

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Friday December 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A new study was just release by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, a Palestinians outlet that often takes polls and then presents and sends out messages about issues of import to the Palestinians.

They took a poll of 1200 people.
62% favor negations with Israel over a solution.
75% believe that the UN vote was justified.
51% feel that more violence against Israel is required.

If an election were held today, 43% would vote for Abbas and 29% would vote for Ismael Haniyah the head of Hamas.

These figures underscore conflicting realities within the Palestinian community. Palestinians are interested in a solution - but they also feel that attacking Israel is okay.

Most importantly, we now know that Mahmoud Abbas is much more popular than most people thought he was.

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Thursday December 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

According to yesterday's Washington Post a Syrian defector is saying that Syria removed 100 kilos of chemical weapon components used for Sarin nerve gas.

According to the report the components were moved to Lebanon from their storage facility near Damascus. The report described how, almost a year ago, two men with Lebanese accents arrived at the facility and were trained in how to mix the two gasses isopropanol and methylphosphonyl difluoride. They then removed and took100 kilos back to Lebanon.

The real shocker is that Syria has about 500 tons of isopropanol and methylphosphonyl difluoride. The gasses are kept separately. When mixed, they become chemically activated or - in military terms, they become weaponized and can then be used.

Once weaponized, the material must be stored carefully so that it will distribute properly. Once mixed, it has a very short lifespan so it must be used very soon afterward or it becomes oxidized and is not dangerous.

Sending 100 kilos to Lebanon is hardly a significant amount and hardly a serious threat. But it us enough for a single, localized, target.

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Wednesday December 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Another major Muslim leader has called for the murder of Christians.

Ahmad Al Baghdadi Al Hassani is one of the leaders of the rebels in Syria fighting against Assad. He told Christians to convert or die. He gave solace to the women, saying they could save themselves by marrying Muslims.

This announcement came just hours after another rebel leader exclaimed that after Assad, the rebels will turn their sights on Israel.

It is essential to understand something.

We in the West yearn to overthrow dictators and thugs. We want to support the oppressed against the oppressor. But sometimes, in the Middle East, the alternative is far worse the current ruling thug.

There is no doubt that a significant percentage of the rebel forces in Syria right now are either from al Qaeda or have an affinity for al Qaeda. Another significant percentage is deeply entrenched in extreme forms of Islam. These are people who reject any - I repeat - any interaction with the West or with liberalism.

Supporting rebels against thugs may not be the best idea.

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Tuesday December 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

So many people interested in Middle East goings on have been so focused on Israel's announcements about new settlements, even obsessing over them and shouting about how settlements have become an obstacle to peace with the Fatah - PA, that they are totally missing an important, developing, news story.

Here is the story for all who have missed it:
Hamas refused to grant Fatah permission to hold a rally in the central square of Gaza. Meanwhile, the PA has been permitting Hamas to hold repeated rallies in their cities and towns over the past two weeks. And those rallies are the trigger that is sewing the seeds for an Intifada that just may oust the PA.

The PA will not take this lightly. They must clamp down on Hamas.

At this point the prime goal of Hamas is to oust the PA and then make their move against Israel. They cannot achieve Part Two until they have accomplished Part One. This is the main reason why unification between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will never work.

Hamas believes that they need to control both Gaza and the West Bank in order to effectively challenge Israel. It cannot be done from Gaza alone. That explains why Hamas is now so active in Ramallah and other large cities in the West Bank.

Hamas is creating an infrastructure to take over the PA and then attack Israel. That's the story - and it is one of the biggest stories in the Middle East right now.

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Monday December 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Right now, it is very PC to side with "the rebels" against Assad in Syria. And the United States has thrown its support behind "the rebels." But "the rebels" are not one entity. The rebels are an extremely divided group.

One set of rebels are, in fact, al Qaeda. And another set of rebels are Salafis.

The leader of the Salafis in Jordan spoke at the funeral of a fellow member who killed himself in a suicide bombing earlier in the week.

The Salafi leader made the following statements:

"We tell Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, get ready. The army of the Prophet Mohammad is coming your way." "Those carrying explosives in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan will find you, Allah willing."

"The next fight is between us and you."
"Take over Damascus and then head to Tel Aviv ... As far as we are concerned, Palestine stretches from river to sea, from Rafah to a-Nakura. We will not rest until Palestine is liberated."

Do not be deceived. Those fighting to oust Assad want to destroy Israel. These groups aka "the rebels" are even more virulent in their hatred of Israel than the rebels who ousted Mubarak in Egypt.

The West and Israel must be very careful. You may support "the rebels" against Assad but know that they are not your friends.

The lesser of these two evils is still very, very, evil.

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Sunday December 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The National Union Battalions has declared that the 3rd Intifada has begun.

The group called National Union Battalions is composed of members from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah. Their YouTube video explains their goals.

They are now passing leaflets throughout the West Bank and sending out links to their video.

I do not think that they have enough momentum from the masses yet to call the situation "Intifada" which means "uprising" in Arabic. But they are stoking the coals.

The National Union Battalions wants more people to come out, more road blocks and more rock throwers and Molotov cocktail throwers. They have been sending around videos of Israeli soldiers running away from Palestinian youths throwing rocks. The videos proclaim these events as major victories for the Palestinians.

Although it is clear that they are not victories, these videos are from the psychological standpoint, very powerful motivation tools for attracting young Palestinians to throw rocks and go riot. The feeling that results from forcing heavily armed Israelis soldiers to run away must be thrilling.

Israel needs to decide on a very clear path of response. Too heavy a hand could truly force the 3rd Intifada into happening and too light a hand could motivate the masses to join in more acts of uprising.

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Saturday December 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is not quite an Intifada -- not yet. But if the Israeli army does not properly handle the unrest in the West Bank it will turn into an Intifada.

Over a thousand people marched toward the check point in Hebron and dozens others marched in towns and cities throughout the West Bank.
They came marching to attend PA sanctioned rallies.

The PA sanctioned rallies were called to officially celebrate the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. It was a dangerous decision the PA made to permit Hamas to march because the inevitable violence could have turned not only against Israel, but also against the PA itself.

The rioters threw Molotov cocktails and rocks. Soldiers fired tear gas.

On Wednesday, in Hebron, a female border guard saw a young boy pull a handgun on her fellow soldier and point it to the back of his head. The Israeli border guard instinctively drew up her weapon and shot and killed the boy. It was later discovered that the gun in the hand of the boy was a toy.

The picture of the Israeli border guard has been sent around the internet with the word "criminal" splashed on it and a warning that "we know who you are."

With each passing day the anger and the violence increases.

The tide has to be reversed to avoid another Intifada.
Unfortunately, the PA does not realize how much is at stake. Hamas really wants an Intifada. For Hamas an Intifada would effectively mean taking over the West Bank. That would oust the PA totally and completely.

The Palestinian Authority does not realize what they have unleashed. The PA still does not get it. The never will.

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Friday December 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are emboldened.

Since last week's UN resolution changing the status of the Palestinians to that of non-voting member, we have seen some significant changes in Palestinian diplomatic bravado.

The following was reported in the London Arabic paper, Al Sharq al Awsat: King Abdullah of Jordan came to Ramallah this week and emphasized the need to return to the negotiation table with Israel.

The paper said that Palestinian president Abbas responded by saying that several conditions must be met before he returns to the table.
And only then will he evaluate the attitude of Israel to the new situation of the Palestinians and determine whether to continue negotiations.

The first condition is that Israel recognize Palestinian state borders within the '67 borders. Next, negotiations must pick up where they broke down under former Prime Minister Olmert which was the swapping of Israeli land for 2.8% of the West Bank. And of course, all settlement activity must stop.

Setting conditions in order to start talks is inevitably an excuse to quit. The conditions are what need to be negotiated.

The Palestinians believe that they have the full commitment of 138 nations behind them. The problem is that peace needs to be negotiated with Israel - not with the 138 countries that voted for the change in Palestinian at the UN.

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Thursday December 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is returning to Iran this week. No major interaction has taken place between the IAEA and Iran since January.

At the meetings the IAEA hopes to get permission to inspect and tour Parchin, a huge nuclear facility outside of Teheran. The IAEA suspects that nuclear explosive tests took place in Parchin earlier this year.

In photos Iranians are seen in plowing under earth and shipping it out - ostensibly to hide the remains of nuclear fallout from the experiment. This is known in the nuclear business as "sanitizing a site."

In addition to Parchin the IAEA wants permission to interview Iranian scientists and try to find out what is happening.

The IAEA hopes that the pressure for sanctions will soften Iran’s point of view and allow their inspectors some latitude.

I am not as optimistic as the IAEA.

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Wednesday December 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The civil war in Syria has been dragging on for 21 months.

The figures are staggering. Syria is a relatively small country. 22.5 million people live in Syria. Most of them have been seriously impacted by the conflict.

As of now the there have been about 45,000 deaths. And 509,000 refugees have fled the country - that equals about 2.5 percent of the population. The refugee figures come from the UN. The fatality figures are an estimate.

The destinations of the refugees are Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan.

As we plot and monitor the crisis so far in Syria it seems clear that the pendulum swings back and forth. Assad is on the rise and then he is on the ropes. The resistance is more effective and then they are less effective. Until the rebels unite it will be very difficult to oust Assad.

It is impossible to predict the future of Syria. As long as the air force and most of the army still stand behind Assad he will not step down and he will continue to inflict serious damage on the rebels. And the country will remain torn and shattered.

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Tuesday December 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

What happens in Syria has an impact on Lebanon. That should come as no surprise to anyone following the Middle East.

Lebanon is in many ways attached to Syria. And so the civil war of Syria is also being fought on the streets of Lebanon.

Sometimes the fighters are armed gangs that support one side against the other. But the most common place for the fight to be pursued is in the media - on television, radio, newspapers and on the web.

Syria supports Hezbollah in Lebanon. So does Iran. Iran also supports Bashar Assad of Syria. The relationship between Syria and Lebanon is so very close that until very recently, Syria did not even have an embassy in Lebanon - they simply saw Lebanon as a Syrian province.

Syria murdered the political leadership it did not like in Lebanon. Literally. They acted with impunity.

Lebanon is more open, richer, better educated and much more cosmopolitan than Syria, but the Lebanese were there to do the bidding of Damascus. And the divisions and conflicts within Lebanon only served to assist Syria in manipulating Lebanese society and leadership and causing more strife.

Lebanese who were supportive of Syria got a pay check from Syria and they did what they were told. So again, it is no surprise that those supporters hired by Assad are now attacking supporters of the Syrian rebels on the streets of Lebanon.

Expect more conflict on the streets of Lebanon.

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Monday December 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The most important decision to emerge from the recent Arab summit is that they - Arab countries - will provide the Palestinian Authority with $100 million per month.

It is all the result of the UN vote which changed Palestinian status to that of observer state from organization. Now, Arab countries are stepping forward with commitments.

According to World Bank figures, the PA actually needs $243 million per month. They will get $100 million from taxes collected by Israel. But that still leaves a serious deficit. The vast majority of PA costs go to paying their 153,000 civil servants.

The $43 million difference must be made up by taxes. And so far, the PA has failed miserably at collecting taxes. For that matter, they have failed at almost every element in the bureaucratic infrastructure that is the foundation of government.

The $100 million from Arab countries is a very important injection into their economy but - despite the promises, very seldom do Arab countries honor their pledges, especially to the PA. And if they do, the money never gets there on time.

And then there are the questions of who will be collecting money and how will it be transferred? These are some of the questions left unanswered at the summit.

Getting aid is fine, but the bigger problem facing the Palestinian Authority is building an economy - an economy that can sustain itself so that it does not have to live on the dole.

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Sunday December 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

I could never have made this one up.

A new Perfume has hit the market in Gaza. It is called M-75. M-75 is the official name of the Iranian Fajr rocket that was shot toward Israel during Operation Pillar of Defense.

The fragrance comes in both male and female scents. It also comes with a message. The message is: this perfume is "worthy of the victory in the Gaza Strip."

I have already written about how the name Fajr has become very popular since the operation - but a perfume?!

Sadly, it is not the first time this has happened. After the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah a Lebanese company came out with a fragrance called "Perfume of Resistance."

I cannot imagine what it is made of and how it was developed. The Palestinians may call it perfume, but it probably the watered down version known as toilet water. A main line fragrance costs 100 million to develop and that process takes several years. The science behind perfumery is extremely sophisticated as is the marketing.

Here the marketing plan for both fragrances is very simple: Celebrate the killing of Jews.

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Saturday December 8,2012

I've Been Thinking:

Halad Maashal is in Gaza.

Maashal arrived yesterday and will be in Gaza for 48 hours celebrating both the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas and the recent Hamas victory over Israel.

Maashal is the head of Hamas.

He is officially in exile and, according to Israel, not permitted in Gaza.

In 1997 after a gruesome terror attack in a market in Jerusalem then Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the assassination of Halad Maashal.

Two Mossad agents approached Maashal in Amman, Jordan and spritzed him in the ear with a poison. But they botched the mission and the two agents were subdued by Maashal's driver and arrested. After the antidote was delivered and Maashal's life was saved, the agents were released.

As another part of the deal to free the agent Hamas prisoners in Israel jails were released - including Sheik Ahmad Yassin, known as the Blind Sheik.

Maashal is a major symbol for Hamas and for Israel. His arrival to Gaza raises some big issues. Should Israel try to assassinate him and this time succeed, what will be the fallout?

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Friday December 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, the Israeli election committee officially closed the list of parties eligible to run in the January 22, 2013 election for the 120 seats in Israel's 19th Knesset.

34 parties are now registered. Several parties may still drop out, but no more can be added. Each party must now submit their list of viable Knesset members. The Knesset has 120 seats and each party will choose the people and the order of their list. Some parties will vote on it, some will have a committee choose and some will have their list chosen by a rabbi.

Of the 34 parties only 10 to 15 will make get enough votes to be viable. A party must receive 2% of the vote to be eligible to sit in the Knesset. This 2% threshold restricts marginal and small parties.

In the last election, in February of 2009, 13 parties were elected.

Only 4 of those parties won more than 10 seats. Kadima won 28, Likud won 27, Israel is Our Home won 15 and Shas won 11 seats.
Since then, Kadima has totally imploded. Likud and Israel is Our
Home have merged. In all likelihood, this time around Shas will again get at least 10-12 seats or perhaps even 15 seats. One or two new parties will probably emerge and garner 8 or 9 seats - enough to exert some control and pressure on the larger parties. But in the end, these new parties like so many others before them they will have no staying power. The new parties that emerge are usually single issue parties, or parties based on a single personality.

I expect the total amount of Arab seats to remain the same at 11. And I expect the ultra religious Ashkenazi seats to remain at 5 seats. I also expect Labor to drop from 8 to 5 or 4 seats.

The big winner will be the Likud Israel is Our Home party which will get at least 42 seats in this election. Should they hit the 50 mark which is not totally improbably, it would make the task of cobbling together a coalition government that much easier. The leading party only needs 61 seats to form and maintain a government.

January 22nd is approaching fast.

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Thursday December 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli decision to move ahead on a plan to build in Area E-1 has raised many people's ire. Some supporters of Israel are asking: Why spit in the face of your ally, the United States?

The US did everything it could to avoid the UN vote on Palestinian which would change the status of the PA to that of observer.
Nothing else could have been done to prevent the resolution on the floor of the General Assembly.

What is E-1?

It is an area of about 4.6sq miles that abuts Maalei Adumim and is called Maveseret Adumim. It is the area that would connect Maalei Adumim to Jerusalem. It is an area that runs next to several Arab villages including Abu Dis and Isawiyah.

In the 1950's the Jahalin Bedouins were relocated from the Negev near Tel Arad to what is now known as Area E-1 because the area was necessary for military and defense use. In 1994 then Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin officially made E-1 part of Maaleh Adumim. In 2008 a multimillion dollar regional police headquarters was completed there.

Ehud Barak, Ehud Olmert and Bibi Netanyahu have all wanted to implement construction in E-1. For Barak and Olmert the idea was two-fold. It was a check to Arab development that was going east and it enabled a road which would bypass Jerusalem going from Bethlehem to Ramallah on the other side of Maalei Adumim.

These plans were discussed in the Taba Talks. At the time the Bush administration forced Israel to desist from pursuing the plans because it would be seen as inflammatory and destructive to the peace process.

So, yes. Israel's decision to advance the E-1 plan is spitting in the face of the United States.

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Wednesday December 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan's King Abdullah plans on visiting Ramallah tomorrow, Thursday.

This will be the first visit of a head of state to Ramallah since last Thursday's UN vote changing the status of the PLO from an organization to an observer state.

Only a few dozen miles separate Ramallah from Amman, Jordan. The trip will take the king no more than a few minutes by helicopter.

The purpose of the visit is very significant. King Abdullah of Jordan is telling Israel that Jordan is firmly behind the UN change and Palestinian statehood. Jordan has much at stake in a successful Palestinian state especially because Jordan is composed predominantly of Palestinians.

Disorder or political unrest in the Palestinian Authority will certainly flow over the river to the Hashemite kingdom.

In Jordan, at this moment, there is a very strong anti-monarchy movement being led by the Islamists. They would gladly join forces with the Palestinians if they could in order to oust the king.

Going to Ramallah is not ceremonial. Going to Ramallah is an essential political move by Hussein. The fact that the visit also effectively embarrasses Israel is a double bonus for Jordan and for the Palestinians.

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Tuesday December 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A newspaper in Lebanon that is supportive of the Syrian rebels recently reported that Iran believes that the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad may be coming to an end.

The paper relates that Ali Larijani, Iranian speaker of the parliament, told Syrian president Bashar Assad that at the point of no return, Iran will host him. Supposedly Assad responded by saying he has only two options - death or victory.

The newspaper added that the tone used by Larijani was one of farewell. It seems that this is not a change in Iranian policy - it seems that this is the exact same message that the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei gave to Assad months ago.

More important than the message here, is the medium. The entire episode was reported in a media outlet that supports the rebel cause against Assad. It is a tool which sends a message of hope to those fighting the regime. The message says that even Iran, the greatest supporters of Assad, has concluded that the regime will soon fall.

I do not know if the assessment is correct. I can say that the death total is getting higher and higher. And it seems that many more rebels are dying than Assad loyalists.

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Monday December 3, 3012

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton is traveling to Europe this week. Her first stop is Prague where the Secretary of State will discuss their energy problems. The most important leg of this trip will be Brussels where Clinton will join with the other NATO foreign ministers.

The most significant issue on the agenda in Brussels will be Turkey's request for Patriot missiles. The Patriot is an American made anti-surface-to-surface missile battery.

Turkey has fears that Syria will launch chemical weapons at the rebels and may - either accidentally or deliberately, strike Turkey.

The Turks say that they have intelligence to that effect and they point to several Syrian rockets that have already gone awry.

There is no doubt that Syria has at least several hundred ballistic missiles with chemical warhead capability. The chemicals Syria is thought to have are mustard gas, a form of sulfur that burns the skin terribly, and the nerve agents sarin and vx.

In 2003, during the Gulf War, Turkey received two sets of Patriots batteries. They were Dutch and German manned and in place to protect Turkey. That is their hope once again.

It is very unlikely that Syria will launch such weapons. And even less likely that they will use them to attack Turkey. But Turkey is correct in wanting to be prepared for all contingencies and if the Dutch and the Germans agree, there should be no significant reason to deny the request.

The discussion in and of itself is significant because it shows us that, finally, NATO is starting to take a real interest in Syria and the Middle East.

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Sunday December 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The same question has been asked of me over and over and over again since the UN vote of Thursday. It is a question worth raising and answering.

The question is: Which are the eight countries who voted together with Israel against the Palestinian state?

The vote was 138 - 9 with 41 exemptions. Given that 132 nations already had diplomatic ties with the PA the vote was a slam dunk from the outset.

The answer as to which countries supported Israel will blow your mind.

The United States and Canada were the only countries in North America to support Israel. That's two.

The only European country to support Israel was the Czech Republic and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting there today to thank them personally. That's three.
Then there was Panama. That's four.

The other four countries were Pacific Island nations that most people have never even heard and would never find on a map.

Nauru has 9,378 residents. Palau has about 20,000. The Marshall Islands has 68,000 residents. Micronesia, which has supported Israel in the past, is a huge metropolis by comparison with 111,000 residents.

Four of the countries eight countries that threw their support behind Israel in the United Nations vote have a combined population of about 200,000 people. You can fit them all in a few blocks in New York City.

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Saturday December 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians and Mahmoud Abbas are in 7th heaven. They never anticipated just how glorious it would feel to so publicly defeat Israel and the United States.

Israel is still feeling the sting of the trouncing. Only eight other countries took their side at the United Nations. They feel totally abandoned and the scope of the loss is hard to quantify.

Never before has this kind of near total rejection of Israel's POV ever happened on the international diplomatic stage.

Part of it had to do with the point of the argument which was, admittedly, hard to win. 132 of 193 countries in the UN already have diplomatic relations with the Palestinian Authority. Actually, more countries in the UN have diplomatic relations with the PA than have with Israel.

Even if people disagreed with the argument it was, nonetheless, valid, logical and most importantly - legal. The UN violated one of its own preconditions by voting in a change of status for the PA. They are giving country status - the name Palestine - to something without borders.

One response to the whole situation is to quote from Israel's first prime minister, David Ben Gurion. In the1950's Ben Gurion said about the UN which is referred to as the OOM in Hebrew, OOM SHMOOM!

There is nothing more that can be said.

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Friday November 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Monday a special committee headed by a Palestinian doctor exhumed the body of Yasser Arafat. Samples were taken.

After being unearthed, the body of Arafat was brought into a nearby mosque. There investigating doctors took biopsy cuttings from the former Palestinian leader who died in November of 2004.

For years now Palestinians have claimed that the Israeli Mossad poisoned Arafat with polonium. The claim has some grounds for believability because small traces of polonium were detected on Arafat's clothing.

The disinterment took place just a few days before the Palestinians went to the General Assembly of the United Nations to change status from that of an organization, The PLO, to a nation observer.

Arafat's widow, Suha, says that the timing of exhumation has spiritual significance. She said that it is almost as if Arafat was resurrected - as if his spirit was there at the vote.

Of course this entire episode is nothing more than rhetoric. During the lifetime of her husband Suha shunned being a presence in official Palestinian business, preferring a more flamboyant lifestyle in Paris. Now, these many years later, Suha is trying to place herself and Arafat in the limelight of an important event in Palestinian history.

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Thursday November 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the day. It is the day the Palestinian Authority brings their request for change of status to the floor of the United Nations.

They have the votes and they will emerge victorious. But what kind of victory will it really be?

The only other parties that count, the two countries that are invested in this decision, its aftermath and its ramifications, the United States and Israel, consider the conferring of statehood on the PA now, in this forum, a diplomatic step back.

I am certain that both the United States and Israel will exact a short term price from the PA for the move. I am just as certain that Palestinian leadership weighed the cost of the decision and then, none the less, decided to absorb the punishment because, in the end, it will be beneficial for them.

The Israeli response does not interest the Palestinians. And the United States will probably only temporarily stop funding them.

Congress will want to exact a serious price, but the Palestinians are convinced that the funding stoppage will only be temporary because the White House will come to their aid and that, after only a few weeks, the money flow will continue just as it did before. Palestinian leadership just assumes that this will be part of an American public dress down.

In their eyes it is an inexpensive cost given how much they will gain in the eyes of the world specifically because they are defying the United States.

That is the irony. Defying the US will in the end not hurt the PA financially. And they will also gain international respect internationally by challenging the US and publicly humiliating them.

And there will be a new state added to the roster of the United Nations.

The United Nations, the enabler.

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Wednesday November 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking :

The Palestinians have decided to go ahead with their proposal to the United Nations for statehood. They have secured support from far more than half of the General Assembly members. Yesterday France announced that they, too, will support the proposal.

The United States is against it.

But the proposal is not what people think it to be. The problem does not lie where people think it lies.

Currently their status is that of an organization - the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization). And so this attempt, though referred to as statehood, is actually a change of status to now become the Palestinian Authority.

They are proposing that their official representation be changed to observer status and that they become recognized not as an organization but as a country. What happens next is the problem.

That change, if approved, effectively means involvement in committees and other roles in the UN.

There has yet to be a negotiated settlement to determine where the country will be located. The PA will be a country without borders.

This is called a unilateral move. A decision or an act made without the partner or the intermediaries - Israel and the United States. That is why there is opposition. And that is why the move is so dangerous to the future of negotiations.

The date that the PA has chosen to present their proposal is also significant. It was on November 29, 1947 that the United Nations originally proposed a two-state solution, a proposal which was rejected by the Arabs at the time.

The date is extremely important to Palestinian leadership, they need it to rectify history.

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Tuesday November 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Kuwaiti paper reported on the Israeli strike which killed Ahmed Jabari claiming that Jabari was not the original target.

Rather, the paper said, Israel's original target was Prime Minister Ismael Haniyah.

But targets change all the time. The report suggests that while Haniyah was under surveillance he had several heated conversations with Jabari and that is how Israel was able to locate Jabari. Since the whereabouts of Jabari were always in flux, Israel only had a small window to strike and they did.

Jabari was on Israel's hit list for a long time.

Part of the conflict between Haniyah and Jabari was that Jabari had searched the prime minister's home. He did it at the request of the leader of Hamas who is headquartered outside of Gaza.

This search was humiliating - hence the heated exchanges between Haniyah and Jabari and Israel successful detection and killing of Jabari.

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Monday November 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since the start of Operation Pillar of Defense the name "Fajr" has become not only famous, but popular.

Many children born in Gaza since the operation began been given the name in honor of the Iranian rocket that shot deep into Israel wreaking havoc and instilling fear into the hearts of millions of Israelis - the Fajr 5.

The word "Fajr" means "Dawn." Naming children after a rocket is the Hamas way of celebrating terror and saying thank you to Iran for helping them attack the heartland of Israel.

Meanwhile, the Sunday Times of London reported yesterday that Israeli spy satellites have seen ships in Iranian ports being loaded with Fajr - getting ready to be smuggled into Gaza.

Experts say that the best way to get the Fajr 5 into Gaza is to get them into Egypt, disassemble them into four or five parts and then bring them through the tunnels to be reassembled on the Gaza side.

We have not see the last of the Fajr - neither the name nor the rocket.

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Sunday November 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There were two reports that I read very early this morning that were so surprising, I had to read them over again. On the first reading
I found them to be beyond belief and assumed that my reaction was due to the wee early hour of the morning. The second reading was, I am pleased to say, confirmation. They are beyond belief.

The first report was on a fatwah, a legal religious decree, by a major Islamic figure in Gaza named Suleiman al Daya. Al Daya issued a fatwah saying that violating the Tahadiyah cease fire with Israel is a sin. The fatwah was publicized throughout Gaza.

"Honoring the truce, which was sponsored by our Egyptian brethren, is the duty of each and every one of us. Violating it shall constitute a sin."

The second report was the transcript of a CNN interview with Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas. In the interview Mashaal says that he would accept a Palestinian state within the 67 borders. He does not accept Israel and did not wish to be asked about recognizing Israel until he gets a state.

These two issues were remarkable in terms of measuring change in the Hamas POV. Until now, comments of this sort would have rendered the speaker a traitor. At best, he would have been ousted from leadership - more likely, he would have been executed.

I never thought that, during my lifetime, I would hear comments like these coming from either a popular cleric or the leader of Hamas, let alone from both.

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Saturday November 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas is proclaiming victory over Israel.

There have been celebrations in the streets of Gaza. Hamas leaders have taken to local and international media announcing not only how victorious they were, but how miserably Israel failed.

In truth, Israel is also claiming victory despite the voices saying that victory was only partial and that soon Israel will return to the very same place they were in - with rockets raining down on them from Gaza.

The big difference is what Hamas is celebrating.

After the Wednesday morning rush hour terror attack inside a crowded bus in Tel Aviv, Gazans celebrated the horrific deed. They danced in public, glorifying an attack against innocent people.

No explanation, no rationale can adequately explain these celebrations.

Victory is a very strange concept in the Arab world. It is not unique to the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite tremendous losses both leaders and the people will claim their own victory as long as a single person remains to shout or to fight.

That is exactly what we witnessed in Southern Lebanon. Now we are witnessing it in Gaza.

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Friday November 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Now that Egyptian President Morsi has a major diplomatic victory under his belt he is moving on in an effort to fulfill new goals.

Morsi is going to try to unite Hamas (the leaders in Gaza) and Fatah (the leaders of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank). I wish him luck - I do not see that as even remotely possible. For the past six years efforts have been made to unite those two factions and all to no avail.

In addition, yesterday Morsi proclaimed and then set into law a series of acts that removes any checks or balances in the fledgling Egyptian democracy.

Morsi announced that he has written into law that none of his decisions are subject to appeal by the courts. This newly created law amplifies the power he already gave himself when he wrote another law giving himself anything he wants without approval of the lower chamber of parliament. He wrote that law after the courts announced that the parliamentary election was invalid.

Now the president of Egypt has set himself high above any other government body.

A leader from the opposition party, former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohammed el Baradei, tweeted that Morsi has become a new Pharaoh. Baradei is absolutely correct.

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Thursday November 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The word that means "ceasefire" in Arabic is not the same as the
word for ceasefire in English or even in Hebrew.

It actually does not mean "ceasefire." The word used is "tahadiya" and it actually means "lull."

A lull means a lessening of intensity - it does not mean a stopping of action. Ceasefire, on the other hand, means a total stoppage of attacks.

Knowing this, one should not be surprised that 14 rockets were shot from Gaza into Israel within the first hours of the tahadiya.

Islam has another, similar, term - "hudna." We hear a lot about hudna regarding peace and ceasefires, but it, too, is the wrong term to use.

Hudna refers to a maximum ten year truce between Muslims and non-believers. We come across the term in the Koran as a response to the realization that Mohammed is not capable of defeating the tribe of Qaraysh. A tactical decision was made and it was called the treaty of Hudaybiyah.

The prophet Mohammed enters into the treaty and then builds up his power. Actually, he enters into the treaty in order to build up his power. At the point where he can defeat Qaraysh, Mohammed breaks the treaty and slaughters Qaraysh.

This story from the Koran is enormously illustrative of how Islam views treaties and ceasefire agreements.

Call it tahadiya or call it hudna - either way it will not last long.

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Wednesday November 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas publicly executed six people yesterday. This is the second time that they have dragged people out of their cars, tied them up and then shot them in the head in public squares. Hundreds of people watched and cheered.

The victims were called collaborators. Officials are quoted on Hamas' Aqsa radio saying that these six people had video equipment and transmission equipment.

The New York Times web site records the executions, they have both video and still pictures.

The video shows someone being shot and then dragged through the streets by a motorcycle. Around his neck hangs a sign proclaiming that he was responsible for the deaths of fifteen Palestinian leaders.

This kind of brutal, public murder and public celebration is part of life in Gaza. No judge, no jury, just murder.

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Tuesday November 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Some would simply call it gall, others will call it arrogance. Such is life and negotiations in the Middle East.

In the talks now taking place in Egypt, talks in which the Egyptians are trying to broker a cease fire between Israel and Hamas, Hamas has listed their demands.

Hamas is demanding:
No ground attack.
End to targeted assassinations
Ease restrictions and lift the blockade on Gaza.
And then, only after all that happens, will they come to terms and stop shooting rockets at Israel.

In response Israel also had an unreasonable request. Unreasonable because of the context, under normal situations this would be a simple assumption.

Israel is requesting:
A 15 year ceasefire agreement.

Suffice it to say the parties are far apart. Even if they were to come to an agreement, there is no doubt in my mind that the cease fire would be violated - by both sides.

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Monday November 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is important to have a sense of perspective about what is now happening in Israel and in Gaza.

What are the numbers?
How effective is Israel in their counter attack?
How damaging has Hamas been?

As of this writing Israel has targeted 1,100 locations in Gaza.

Operation Pillar of Defense began on Wednesday. 80 locations were targeted between Saturday night and early Sunday morning, another 130 were targeted on Sunday.

Hamas has shot 820 rockets at Israel. 540 landed. 280 were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome, a special weapon that specializes in knocking out short range rockets before they hit their targets.
31 of the 820 rockets landed in or near urban areas in Israel, that is about 3.7% of the total rockets fired. That means that Israel has been effective at stopping most of the rockets.

Hamas is satisfied. Just having Israel sound air raid sirens in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem was a huge victory. Hamas is now stripping their rockets of their heavy explosive head - this way the rockets will have greater range. For Hamas, the fear factor and the terror they are striking into the heart of Israel and every Israeli is far more valuable than the actual destruction caused by the rockets.

Hamas gains from disrupting normal life and injecting a sense of profound fear into the heartland of Israel. That is their measure of success. That is their objective.

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Sunday November 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The ratcheted-up conflict between Israel and Hamas has been going on for almost a week. It is time to take a look at several important issues.

The objective of Israel is to get a cease fire. Israel wants their citizens to live in quiet without fear of rocket fire.

The objective of Hamas is quite the opposite. Hamas is acting in order to provoke stronger and greater responses from Israel. The actions of Hamas indicate that they want Israel to advance on the ground and enter Gaza. It is as if Hamas has planned numerous surprises for Israeli ground troops when they enter.

A ground offensive could be extremely costly both for Israel and for Hamas.

Israel's top echelon leadership is going to stay far away from that option at this time. But the leaders of Israeli cities and the regional councils have a different objective. Local leaders and mayors have said they do not want a temporary cease fire. They want a solution. A solution means destroying Hamas.

Destroying Hamas would be even more costly than a ground war.

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Saturday November 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is ratcheting up.

Hamas has set their sights higher and targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, the heartland of Israel. Where for years the targets of these incessant rockets have been Jewish communities living on the periphery in places like Sderot, that is no longer the case.

The rockets are no longer an inconvenience, they are now aimed at mainstream Israel. Hamas has taken it up a notch and they are attacking places where the vast majority of Israel resides.

To those people are asking why Israel does not just go in and take out Hamas, I answer: It is not so simple an equation.

The objective of any operation Israel undertakes may not be the elimination of Hamas. It seems that the objective is creating a long term cease fire and quiet - not getting rid of Hamas. That is a critical difference.

There is another reason. Israel is preparing for an election. And on the eve of an election, when soldiers may be put in harm's way and when there may be great military and/or civilian losses, no politician is going to want to advance a ground war and risk not getting re-elected.

The situation is moving ahead. Expect action - on both sides, soon.

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Friday November 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas broke through the glass ceiling.

Hamas shot two Fajr-5 missiles at Tel Aviv. The rockets aimed at

Tel Aviv were fired only a short two hours after they fired at the
city of Rishon LeZion. Be'r Sheba, the capital of the Negev, was also the target of numerous attacks.

In all, nearly 500 rockets and missiles were shot from Gaza into Israel since Wednesday.

Israel will not take this sitting down. The Israelis have already responded to an earlier onslaught of rocket attacks by successfully targeting and assassinating Hamas military leader and strategist Ahmad Jabari.

This barrage by Hamas seems to be a response to that planned hit.
The cycle continues.

Israel has called-up tens of thousands of reserves. But this battle is most likely to take place in the skies over Gaza. Hamas and Gaza are not the same as Hezbollah and Lebanon.

It would not be wise for Israel to enter Gaza and launch a land offensive at this time.

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Thursday November 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Jordan lifted subsidies on food stables and on fuel. The move caused riots throughout the Hashemite kingdom.

The main supporters of the riots and its organizers were Islamic extremists, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda.

Jordan is suffering from a $3 billion debt. That debt amounts to 11% of their gross national product. And that is a recipe for disaster.

Subsidies artificially keep prices down below market prices. They are a large reason for the deficit because the government must pay the difference. Subsidies, in essence, are a gift to the people.

Since the Arab Spring began, Jordan has wanted to reduce subsidies.

But the King feared that any change like that could cause riots and, quite possibly, lead to situations similar to the uprisings in Egypt, Syria and Libya.

The Jordanians cannot put off their decision any longer.

The Islamists will try to capitalize on the lifting of subsidies in hope that the economic crunch will gather momentum and that the greater masses will be galvanized and eventually, King Abdullah will be ousted.

We have to monitor this very carefully. At any moment, it can go either way.

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Wednesday November 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is in the third day of a weeklong military exercise. The exercise will include 8,000 soldiers, planes, rockets, missiles and ships and it will cover huge swaths of area covering thousands of miles.

It is Iran’s largest ever military exercise and is being heralded with great bluster and propaganda. Iran has promised to unroll their three newest weapons which, word has it, include short range defense missiles.

There are two or problems with Iran's military games. First of all, the Iranians tend to exaggerate. They hype their weapons to make them look more powerful than they really are to frighten and intimidate their enemies and impress their citizens.

Second is that the Iranians often pass off old versions of weapons as new. Sometimes they revamp and repaint them. Sometimes they take imported weapons and try to embellish them or make them look Iranian.

That said, there have been some real technical surprises coming out of Iran, but none of them in the field of missiles.

In the end, this weeklong event is probably nothing more than a large, drawn out, propaganda tool. But we are still watching it very carefully.

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Tuesday November 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

England has been trying to deport an al Qaeda preacher named al Qatada to Jordan ever since 2001. The Brits have won all their court cases and Jordan is ready and willing to accept him.

Al Qatada was convicted in absentia for two terror attacks in Jordan. If returned, he would be retried. England has gotten absolute promises from Jordanian officials as high as King Abdallah that al Qatada would not be executed if convicted.

But now a court in England has said that those assurances are not believable.

In addition to his terror convictions in Jordan Al Qatada was also convicted of supporting terrorist activity in England. He would regularly preach about attacks and attacking.

When a country like England wins their case against someone like al Qatada they cannot simply expel him. There needs to be a country to receive the expelled person. Without a country on the receiving end the expelled person remains in England.

That is the case with al Qatada. It looks like he will be remaining in England.

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Monday November 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called US President Barack Obama and congratulated him on his election victory. In the course of the conversation Abbas also explained to Obama why he wanted to make a move in the UN changing the status of Palestinians from "observer" to "non member."

Ynet reports that Nabil Abu Rudeina, spokesman for the Palestinian president, recounted the conversation between Obama and Abbas and said that Obama reportedly expressed the resistance of the US for the bid.

The US does not want Palestinians status to change at the UN until there is significant progress in direct negotiations between the PA and Israel. Otherwise, a change in status at the UN will be seen by Israel as a unilateral act by the PA.

That act would be that the Palestinians are changing their status to that of a country outside of the framework of face-to-face discussions with Israel which is an essential part of the road map for progress.

Obama and the US understand that a move like this in the UN will only produce negative results and are trying to explain to Abbas and the Palestinians that this act will be an act of self-destruction.

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Sunday November 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Israeli borders are getting very hot.

Since Saturday evening more than 75 rockets have been shot into Israel from Gaza. The rockets are being launched by the brand new SK-8 which has the capability of shooting multiple rockets in rapid succession. Islamic Jihad has a whole slew of new weapons that they are rolling out against Israel.

This enormous increase in rocket intensity and the use of a weapon system that is much more effective and efficient than any that was previously used is causing Israel to reconsider their position. Will Israel be able to regain an effective policy of defense through intimidation? Will or when will Israel advance a land strike into Gaza?

At the same time Syria has resumed shooting across their border into Israel. This is the 4th breakdown of that border. The first two involved tanks that went into the demilitarized zone, the third time it was shots across the border and this morning a rocket was shot into the Golan.

Israel fired back warning shots including a computer smart bomb meant to tell them to stop.

Israel does not seem to think that Syria wants to invade or even draw Israel into the conflict. But Hamas certainly wants Israel to launch a ground offensive in Gaza.

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Saturday November 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two major arms deals have caught my attention of late.

First, Iraq. Iraq has outlined a deal to buy $4 billion worth of weapons from Russia. The weapons will include, among other arms, attack helicopters and missiles. The plan was made public and now domestic Iraqi press is saying that the deal is filled with kickbacks and improprieties.

The biggest issue here is why are the Iraqis buying their arms from Russia and not the US?

Next, Saudi Arabia. I just saw that the US Defense Security Agency has submitted a nearly $7 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia and has asked for approval from Congress. Congress has 30 days to question or reject the deal.

The deal includes attack fighter jets and five refueling jets. Despite some tensions Saudi Arabia is again purchasing large weapons from the United States.

To give some background and some sense of numbers, in 2010 Saudi Arabia bought $60 billion in weapons from the US. In 2011 there was another arms deal in which the US provided 84 fighter jets in exchange for $30 billion dollars.

Keeping a watchful eye on arms deals is an essential tool to evaluate the flow of contacts and power in the world --- especially in the Middle East.

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Friday November 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

No doubt about it. Iranian fighter jets shot at US unmanned drones flying in international airspace over international waters.

Iran has now warned the United States that they will not take kindly to surveillance in the region. The US responded by saying that they were legally in international waters - in the "waters of the Arabian Gulf." Calling the waters the "Arabian" Gulf was a direct jab against Iran who refers to the body of water as the Persian Gulf.

International law specifically refers to territory that extends 12 nautical miles from the shoreline. This incident took place 16 miles offshore - clearly not in Iranian space.

The drone was a MQ-1, also known as a predator drone. It was attacked by two SU-25 Russian-made fighter jets with a single seat. Because of their unusual shape they are called Frogfoot.
Now the real story.

In Dec 2011 Iran brought down a stealth unmanned bat drone. The Iranians reverse engineered the drone and they are now producing them. The Iranians wanted to bring down the predator drone and then quickly fish it out of the Persian Gulf before the US swooped in to retrieve it.

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Thursday November 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It may be Thursday already, but Monday morning quarter backing is in full swing. And now it is essential to ask and answer some really big questions.

The Jewish vote has traditionally leaned Democratic. This election was no exception. Exit polls show that 70% of Jews supported Obama. 2012 was a small drop from the 74% that supported Obama in 2008.

But the Jewish vote was never up in the air. It was never part of the potential swing, not even in those states that were up for grabs.
The real reason for the interest of the Democratic Party in the Jewish community is not at all about votes. The leadership of the Democratic Party needs to make certain that Jewish support will be in their court not because they care about a handful of Jewish votes but because Jews contribute large sums to the Democratic war chest.

That explains the caring, the concern, the sensitivity to Jewish needs. It is money, not votes. And during election periods, money counts.

Campaign contributions are the reason and the only reason that Jews are courted by the Democratic Party. Contributions are why the Democratic party invests so much time and energy focusing on the Jewish community.

The Jewish vote did not swing the election and it never will. But Jewish money, that was an essential part of the Obama victory.

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November 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announced that they will participate in the international conference on a Nuclear Free Middle East. The conference is scheduled for December.

That news should not come as a shock to anyone. More than that, it was a predictable move on the part of Iran.

Until now the Iranians have been publicly silent on their conference involvement.

But we all assumed that they would attend and once there, attack Israel. The Iranians will have no need of defending themselves at the conference. Their argument has always been that they need nuclear technology for 3 reasons.

# 1 as an energy alternative to fossil fuels/oil and gas

# 2 to help other countries attain the technology

# 3 to respond to Israel who already has a nuclear program.

Iran has an agenda at the International Atomic Energy Agency. Their ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Sultanieh, has consistently advanced an anti Western point of view. He argues that it is the right of Iran to develop nuclear technology and the West -especially the US, has no right to tell them what to do.

The Nuclear Free Middle East conference will be more of the same. More of the same claims. More of the same rhetoric. More of the same threats and accusations.

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Tuesday November 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today is Election Day in the United States. At this point he polls have the election so tight that it is impossible to predict who will win. For America, this is an exciting and dramatic time.

The drama has spread far beyond the borders of the USA. The Iranian foreign ministry has come out with a very clear statement about the elections and about the candidates.

The statement is posted on Nasim, an Iranian news website. It reads: "Both Democrats and Republicans were hostile towards Iran in the past, our only criteria evaluating the candidates is the amount of respect they hold for our nation."

This is important. From the point of view of Iran, one of the most antagonistic countries to United States policies and interests in the whole world, there is no differentiation between Obama and Romney, no differentiation between Democrats and Republicans.

The only variable that counts for Iran vis a vis the candidates is their point of view vis a vis Iran. That is an extremely myopic point of view and a very jaded method with which to make analysis of any sort.

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Monday November 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Once again Iran is masterfully getting around sanctions to help buoy herself up and make certain that she remains competitive in the steel market.

Iran is a very large producer of steel. The Islamic Republic produces steel for internal needs and for production, not just for export.

But they need the raw materials. They need coke and coal and metallurgical coal, known in the business as coking coal.

So where are they getting these raw materials? From the Ukraine.

The raw material arrives in Iran via third party intermediaries and foreign banks. It gets shipped to Iran by way of the Black Sea. While sanctions monitors are busy watching for oil and checking out the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian companies are just bringing in the raw materials the other way.

A company can make as much as $25 million a month providing these raw materials to Iran. The important element here is that bringing coal to Iran is not a violation of the sanctions. Selling steel to Iran, now that is a violation.

The EU wants to stop all trade with Iran. But the UN and the US understand the need to provide humanitarian goods. But what happens when those goods make Iran stronger and provide her with the raw materials for a major industry.

As I said, Iran has, again and again and again masterfully gotten around the sanctions.

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Sunday November 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

In today's army, the most valued soldier is the techie. The cyber warrior reigns. This is person we used to call -- the pocket protector guy.

Israel's IDF is no exception. And Israel has one of the best, if not the best, cyber units in the world.

These soldiers need to be different. They need to think outside the box. They are, for the most part, extremely arrogant and very creative. The way one protects a systems is to first spend time, oftentimes a lot of time, finding its vulnerabilities.

The Intelligence Branch of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has made the decision to actively recruit young hackers. They are scouring Israeli high schools for potential warriors. That should be expected.

And they are taking it a step further. The IDF Special Warriors Unit has launched a recruitment drive for the best hackers in the Diaspora Jewish community. Once they are found they will be coaxed and lured to join their patriotic destiny and serve in the Israeli Army.

Another example of thinking out of the box.

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Saturday November 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last month Saudi Arabia banned shooting guns at weddings. Shooting shotguns at weddings is a long and very popular tradition among tribes not only in Saudi Arabia but also throughout much of the Arab world.

The Saudi government felt that the tradition of shooting bullets into the sky was just too dangerous, hence the new law. But while they are publicizing the ban, they are not really enforcing the new law.

So, for Saudis at least, it should have been no surprise that twenty-six guests attending a recent wedding were electrocuted or burned to death as a result of weapon fire. The gunfire toppled electric wires, the wires hit a metal door, people were electrocuted. A fire also ignited and more guests were killed in the fire.

According to the report all those killed at the wedding feast were from the same tribe.

What a terrible waste of human life. A happy milestone was transformed into a horrific tragedy.

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Friday November 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian supporters of Assad are spreading a conspiracy theory that is so mind boggling that people might actually believe it.

They are saying that Sandy, the hurricane that devastated the United States causing billions upon billions in damages, was the result of a highly sophisticated Iranian weapon.

The group supporting Assad posted a message on their Facebook page saying that Sandy was the work of Iran and that the hurricane was punishment for those who attack Syria.

What makes this conspiracy so different from others is that Iran is placed front and center as the major actor causing the damage in this drama.

Obviously no such weapon exists. But people will believe it and it will weaken the hearts of the opposition. There are people who can actually be convinced into believing that Iran has the ability to alter the power of nature.

Unbelievable, but true.

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Thursday November 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A Lebanese paper just reported that Hezbollah has installed a set of cameras on the border between Israel and Lebanon.

The network of cameras is linked to a control room. From there Hezbollah is monitoring the movements of the Israeli army as they go out on various patrols. They are even monitoring the activities of local farmers.

The news report describes the cameras as being mounted on trees, but I am certain that they are also on the ground and even on the border fence. This would allow maximum vision and the best angles.

The paper also reported that Hezbollah is improving its telephone infrastructure in Southern Lebanon. Land lines are much more difficult to infiltrate than cell phones. So improving the land lines will improve the security of Hezbollah's internal communication.

All of this adds to the already tense environment. We know that Hezbollah has been building their arsenal and even launching Iranian spy drones over Israel. I hope that a way to release the tensions is found before the tensions morph into conflict.

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Wednesday October 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days there have been dozens of rockets shot into Israel from Gaza by Hamas.

A Hamas released video shows six rockets being shot very quickly in rapid succession from the middle of an urban residential area. The rockets seemed to be shot by a single rocket launcher capable of multiple rockets.

This kind of attack makes it very difficult for Israel to retaliate against the launchers simply because the rockets have deliberately and intentionally been positioned in the midst of civilians.
Luckily, no Israelis were hurt by these rockets.

But Gazans will be hurt.

Gazans will be hurt in two ways. The first is that Israel will hit back with helicopter gunships and fighter jets. The second and greatest injury to Gazans is the damage that was done to the reputation of Hamas when they publicized the fact that they shoot from populated centers.

That action is absolutely unacceptable in the world in which we live today.

I just hope that the world will condemn these blatant terrorist acts.

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Tuesday October 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Two Iranian naval ships arrived in Sudan yesterday. The ships are a statement of support. They are a gesture from Iran. They are the Iranian way of saying "Sudan, we have your back."

It all began last week when four mysterious planes attacked and blew up a Sudanese arms factory. Everyone but the CIA has said that the bombers must have been Israeli. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement and I do not anticipate any change in their comments.

Intel on the attack has it that the target was not necessarily the factory but the finished products housed near the factory and which were about to be shipped out to Hamas in Gaza - highly sophisticated weapons could do serious harm to Israel.

At the site when it was bombed were weapons imported from Iran and weapons that had made their way from Libya. In fact, some of those weapons may have been American and may have been given to Libya in order to oust Ghadaffi.

The strike was huge news in the Arabic world. Almost every leader and every media outlet shouted about Israel being a cancer on the region and a country that, on a whim, will launch an attack.

The most important note of this entire issue is not the Iranian ship's arrival. It is the idea that Israel is behind the attack.

If the attack came from Israel, it means Israeli planes flew 1600 kilometers to their target. That is 300 kilometers further than Fordow, the main nuclear underground facility in Iran. That would mean that four planes - three fighter jets and a coordinator plane, made the 1600 kilometer trip, destroyed their target, refueled mid air and safely returned home without being detected.

Believe me, Iran knows all this, the Iranians can do the math.

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Monday October 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

An Egyptian circus is now performing in Gaza. They plan on being there for an entire month.

Although the circus is not a government sponsored show there is no doubt that the Egyptian government approved and even helped them cross the border and set up their tents.

Because of certain issues, the circus is taking on a Gaza-like character. That means that no women from Egypt are in the show because there was great concern that the women would insult the sensitivities of the very religiously conservative Hamas. And because of the problems of bringing lion and a tiger into Gaza presented they, too, remain back in Egypt.

Tickets cost between $5 & $10. That might sound very inexpensive but it is still way too much for the average Gaza resident whose family lives on $2 per day. Over a million and a half people live in Gaza. It is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

The reports were that people came out of the circus smiling and laughing. Since most people living in Gaza have never seen a circus we should not take their critique too seriously. But laughing and smiling is always a positive.

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Sunday October 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the leader of Al Qaeda, just released part one of eleven videos directed at the people of Egypt. In the videos Zawahiri gives Egyptians advice on how to complete their revolution. Zawahiri is actually an Egyptian.

He advises Egyptians to kidnap Americans: "I ask that all Muslims take prisoner citizens of countries that have attacked Muslims, because our prisoners will not be freed except by force, which is the only language they understand."

"I tell all of you who wish to purge Egypt of social injustice and corruption that the battle is not over." He said that only through victory can the Muslim and Egyptian people "achieve what they want - a government with Sharia law, proud, free and with social justice."

These videos will have an impact. Zawahiri is sending a powerful message to Egyptians and he will spur them on to plan more attacks against the United States. Zawahiri is a favorite son of Egypt's Islamist movement.

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Saturday October 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

England has just said, clearly and categorically, that they will not support a strike against Iran.

The Official Spokeswoman for the British Prime Minister David Cameron said that at this time there is no "clear and present threat," according to the English daily newspaper the Guardian.

She also said: "The government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this moment, though no option is off the table."

This shows a clear and dramatic difference in approach between the rhetoric emerging in the US presidential elections and the attitude and thinking of Great Britain. It is very clear that both US presidential candidates are talking of more effective sanctions - but they have only begun to rattle their sabers.

Then again, it could all be empty rhetoric by the American. It might be that both candidates want to appear strong and unafraid to stand up in the face of Iran's nuclear program ... but rhetoric sometimes becomes reality and England has now publically said that they will not support the reality the United States is proposing.

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Friday October 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The ceasefire between rebels in Syria and Syrian forces loyal to Bashar Assad will not hold. Nonetheless, creating that ceasefire is a very important step.

It is important in that this is the first time that both parties have agreed on anything. And once has happened there is a road map for future agreements.

This ceasefire is intended to permit everyone to celebrate the Eid, the three-day Muslim holiday called Eid al Adhah. It starts today and is a celebration of the story described in the 2nd Sura, which mimics Genesis 22. It is the story of Abraham taking Ishmael and binding him as a sacrifice, but in the end the father does not sacrifice his son.

All Muslims celebrate the Eid and it is said that 100 million animals are killed and eaten during these days. Agreeing to the cease fire now is a very significant gesture.

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Thursday October 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week the supreme court of Iran forbade their president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, from visiting the prison where one of his assistants is being held for insulting the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

And now, the head of the judiciary has publicly chastised Ahmadinejad for even thinking about visiting the prison and for taking his desire to go public.

The judiciary went public saying that the president does not respect or understand the separation of powers. They said that it is unfitting and wrong for the president to go to the prison.

What do we learn from this? We learn that Ahmadinejad is once again getting beaten back from his attempt to totally control the system and run over governmental bureaucracy and other powers in Iran.

We saw Ahmadinejad attack and then beaten back by the parliament and now we are seeing it with the judiciary. These are important lessons that do not bode well for the future of Ahmadinejad as president of Iran.

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Wednesday October 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is now experiencing the overflow of Syrian tensions. What is happening in Syria is happening in Lebanon now, but to a lesser extent.

Here is what is happening: In Tripoli four people were killed and dozens were wounded in a conflict between Sunnis and Alawites. That is an extract replica of Syrian tensions. Assad is an Alawite and his supporters are Alawites - but the rebels are Sunnis.

There's more: A senior intelligence officer was recently killed in Lebanon. Hezbollah has speculated that he was killed in order to spread the seeds of instability.

There is no doubt that the future of Lebanon is hanging in the balance and that both Syria and Iran have great influence over what happens there next. But so do Western forces - and so do Islamic forces.

Every group has special needs that they are imposing on the Lebanese people. Everyone wants what they want, and everyone is ignoring the obvious reality which is that the people of Lebanon need to learn to live harmonious lives together.

Lebanon has a history if civil war. When the different factions within Lebanon cannot work together they resort to fighting and killing each other. In Lebanon, history is repeating itself.

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Tuesday October 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court sentenced a TV anchorman to four months in prison for insulting the president of Egypt. Tawfiq Okasha was convicted but can still appeal his sentence.

Okasha, who owns Fareen TV network, has denied that he called Morsi a murder - but the court did not see it that way. Okasha's crime took place in the context of a broadcast during which he appeared to be offering commentary and in which he suggested that Morsi, the new president of Egypt, not go to the funerals of those soldiers killed by terrorist.

The implication was that were Morsi to attend the funerals the mourners would lynch him. The court saw this as an insult.
The person who brought the suit explained that Morsi is the new president of Egypt and if you insult Morsi, you insult Egypt.

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Monday October 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan prevented a huge terror attack. Eleven people, all members of an al Qaeda cell, have been arrested.

Jordanian media is clearly calling the suspects Islamic radicals and militants whose objective is to disrupt, destabilize and destroy Jordan. The terrorists were planning to attack Western diplomatic missions and Western style shopping malls and shopping areas in Jordan.

This is the same organization that perpetrated the horrific simultaneous attacks in November 2005 when they bombed three Western hotels, killing 60 people.

It seems clear that this time the group was trying to recreate the Benghazi attack in Libya in which they stormed the United States consulate killing US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other US embassy personnel.

According to official media, the now apprehended terrorists were planning to shoot rockets at the United States and British embassies in Jordan. The area around the embassies is full of foreigners and any of the buildings in the neighborhood would have made a good target.

At the same time another terrorists team was going to attack shopping centers housing Western stores and frequented by Western patrons. These are also stores where local Jordanians shop. Those locals are also targets of these terrorists because they are Jordanians who desire to assimilate into Western culture.

This arrest was an extremely important act. It both saved the lives of many people and kept the relationship between the West and Jordan very strong.

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Sunday October 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

By all rights, Libya should once again be front page news. Not just because the presidential debate tomorrow night will focus on foreign policy. But more if not equally important is the reality that right now Libya is on the brink of civil war.

This morning 26 people were killed and over were 200 wounded in battles between militias loyal to former dictator Ghadaffi and official forces.

There are 140 tribes in Libya. Several get along and there are long standing treaties between them. But most do not get along. Most of them join forces only in order to protect themselves from other tribes whom they despise more than the tribes they made a pact with.

All the militias are brokered by way of families and tribal power, money and arms.

The only way to resolve the conflict engulfing Libya and to create stability is not by creating equality among the tribes but rather by supporting one set of tribal leaders over another.

It is the opposite of democracy but it is the reality. Only after a single, recognized, strong, accepted leader emerges will that new Libyan leadership have the power and capability to confront outside forces --- like al Qaeda.

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Saturday October 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza is getting a very important guest. That is, at least according to MAAN an official Palestinian news agency.

MAAN quotes Egyptian sources as saying that they have been informed that next week the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, will visit Gaza.

The Emir will visit with family and be accompanied by a large delegation.

All this comes after an announcement last week that the Emir will be giving Gaza $250 million dollars to help rebuild the infrastructure of Gaza.

This is the first visit of any Arab head of state to Gaza since Hamas took over in a coup in January of 2007.

Gaza is controlled by Hamas and many moderate Arab leaders have a strange and uncomfortable relationship with them. On the one hand they want to help Hamas, especially by side with Hamas against Israel. But on the other hand they do not want to support Hamas against the Palestinian Authority which is more mainstream.

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Thursday October 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has denied it, but the international press has been abuzz for the past few days. Der Spiegel broke the story.

Iran has a secret plan to initiate an oil spill in the Straits of Hormuz.

The spill would contaminate the water and force the Straits to close. Then Iran would use the situation as leverage and make promise to clean up the environmental mess - and the West would lift the sanctions against them.

All the while the cost of oil would sky rocket. Der Spiegel said that the plan was called "Dirty Waters."

It makes sense but it will not work - Saddam Hussein attempted the same trick.

The oil spill scenario is something that the West has already considered. A much more likely scenario would be for Iran to strike tankers and military ships with their tiny, mini submarines and with their fleet of speedy rubber craft.

When that happens there is almost no way to trace source of the attack and it can take weeks to clear out a disabled tanker or war ship.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The 2nd presidential debate was at time very tense, it even made me uncomfortable watching it at certain moments.

Americans tend to enjoy debates that are properly conducted, where the sides show respect for each other. That did not happen last night. The debaters appeared unsportsmanlike at times and it was, simply put, not nice. According to the rules that they both agreed to, the candidates were not even supposed to speak to or address one another.

In presidential debates, the more details are dispensed the less people are interested. People want platitudes and simplicity. They cannot understand numbers and have no interest in the details.

Simple points win in a debate, complicated points leave people wondering. Repetition after repetition after repetition does not hammer home a point, it makes people restless.

The debaters practiced the details, but the simplest lines were the most successful.

Like when Romney said to the audience "you know better than that" he was saying, you are living it you know the president is wrong.

Or like when Obama said "I find that offensive," referring to Romney suggesting that he campaigned instead of dealing with Libyan crisis.

Americans like a fight - a fair fight, and the 2nd presidential debate did not follow the rules.

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Tuesday October 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday on the website of Al Ahram, an official Egyptian newspaper, a very telling story was reported.

According to the report an assassination plot against new president Mohammed Morsi was foiled. The web report supplies the name and details about the person who was arrested. He is a 28 year old man from Alexandria named Mohib Ajar.

On the website it says that when authorities searched Ajar's home they found the president's itinerary for his visit Alexandria along with maps, routes and information about bomb making.

The telling part is that this was reported. And as many details as were given, that's how many details were omitted.

Egyptian security is sending a message. They are letting everyone know that they are aware of threats and that they are dealing with them. This was a deliberate announcement.

It was a warning: do not plot an assassination, you will be found out and you will be punished.

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Monday October 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the new head of al Qaeda, has released another video.

This video, like the video released last month, calls for actions against the United States. Last month's video by Zawahiri was probably the trigger that set the Libyan attack that assassinated the US ambassador Stevens and three others.

He is probably hoping for a similar strike now also.

In his message Zawahiri praised all those protesting and all those fighting insults against Mohammed. He called for zealots to "continue their opposition to American crusader Zionist aggression against Islam and Muslims".

Zawahiri refers to the United States as a Crusader and as the Zionist Crusader. The term Crusader resonates with all Muslims. According to their definition, it means that the US and Israel are only a short distraction in the history of Islam.

Like the Crusaders, Zawahiri is saying, the United States along with Israel will be defeated and forgotten.

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Sunday October 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed Badie is the head of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. He was elected to the position in 2010. His views are the views of the Brotherhood - and they are biting.

Recently, the Muslim Brotherhood sent out an announcement with his insight and posted the message on their website.

Badie issued a scathing attack against Jews. He said that Jews were spreading corruption and that Zionist only knows force.

"It is time for the Muslim ... to unite for the sake of Jerusalem and Palestine after the Jews have increased the corruption in the world, and shed the blood of (Muslims)."

The United States has made no comment about this diatribe. The new president of Egypt has said nothing.

Re Egypt: The significance is that these messages are playing to the extremes in Egypt and Morsi is from the same party as Badie and to disavow them would be difficult.

Re the US: The US cannot do business with a country and a leader that does not at least attempt to control this kind of racism when it is being used to galvanize the people is such a demagogic fashion.

I am waiting for the United States to respond. I am not holding my breath.

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Saturday October 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Riots and tear gas have again rocked the Arab island country of Bahrain.

Bahrain is a tiny island country located in the Persian Gulf. It is a very rich country that suffers from Sunni/Shiite strife. The ruling class in Bahrain is Sunni and composes about 30% percent of the population while the vast majority, some 70%, is Shiite.
33 islands make up the country. The entire population is 1.2 million. The largest of the islands, called Bahrain Island, is a mere 34 miles long and 11 miles wide.

Since February of 2011 there have been tensions, protests and riots that have at times become violent. The Shiites want a role to play - but they are in a bind. Their backers are Iran and they do not wish to replicate another Iran in Bahrain.

The Shiite demonstrators want an equal footing with the Sunnis. One of the reasons the crisis began in 2011 is that Shiites were removed from their positions as civil servants, officers and professionals in the army because Sunni leadership was afraid that Shiites were gaining too much power.

The tensions continue and they will not stop. Local leaders have arrested Shiite organizers while Iran continues to support the demonstrations. The demonstrators have been fueled by the Arab spring.

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Friday October 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now clear that Hezbollah launched the drone that the Israelis shot down last week. The announcement came directly from Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah who said that they sent it and that the Iranians made it.

The drone was in the air over Israel for at least 15 minutes before it was downed.

There have been rumors that the aerial vehicle was a RQ-170 also known as the Beast of Kandahar. It is a bat drone, so named because it is almost 15ft long with a wingspan of over 39ft. It looks like a monster bat.

This is the type of drone that Iran hijacked out of the sky. Originally made by Lockheed Martin, Iranian engineers reverse engineered it.

Believe me when I tell you that whatever kind of drone it is, American drone specialists were on the first plane to Israel to reverse engineer it in order to determine the technology the Iranians were able to cull from their bat drone.

The big question is not what Iran saw via the drone but how the drone was controlled and how the material was transmitted back to base.

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Wednesday October 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The word is that Israel may be moving toward new elections. Even Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that elections will probably take place in early 2013.

New elections will help Netanyahu and Netanyahu only. No one can challenge his popularity and no party will come close to getting the support that the prime minister and his Likud party have.

During the past few weeks, as discussions on potential elections emerged, people and parties across the board have paraded themselves before the PM trying to position themselves to ride the wave of Bibi's power and popularity.

If elections are held early next year Bibi Netanyahu and his Likud party will gain - and almost every other party will lose.

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Tuesday October 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A newly released UN report indicates that Iran has taken about 30% of their highly enriched uranium and turned it into powder.

Once it has been turned into powder it is almost impossible to transform the enriched uranium back into usable uranium, suitable for a weapon.

This move will be viewed as a major step towards appeasing the West and demonstrating that Iran has taken a positive step toward accommodation. It will help reduce tensions and slow down the pressure to strike against Iran.

Once again, we are witness to a masterful play on the part of Iran.

Iran is acting and reacting to pressure and sanctions. This move proves that Iranians have many available options. This is just one option - an option that most analysts had not even begun to think about.

I am certain that Iran has a number of other moves just like this one. And each of those moves will push back any move by the West to strike Iran.

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Monday October 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Egypt celebrated their victory over Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Egyptians refer to this war as the "October War."

This is an annual event and it is not an isolated commemoration. Monuments to the Egyptian victory over Israel in 1973 are displayed all over the country.

So, what is the big deal here? This celebration reveals much about how the Arabic world sees reality. You see, Egypt did not win the war in 1973.

Israel won that war. Egypt was so miserably defeated that Cairo, the Egyptian capital, was entirely encircled by Israel under the leadership of General Ariel Sharon.

Israel could have captured the city. They did not. They did not because they could never have policed and controlled Cairo.

How then could Egypt celebrate a victory that never happened? The answer lies in the Arab mindset. The Arabic world has difficulty understanding how they can lose to Israel - the interloper, the outsider, a non-Arab, non-Muslim country.

The Arab world cannot accept that Jews won and the great Arab nation lost. So they simply transformed the loss into a victory. And now they celebrate.

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Sunday October 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

For months now I have been shouting about what is happening to Christians in Egypt. They have been shot at. They have been chased out of their homes. Their homes and churches have been burned. They have been exiled.

The only reason for these horrific attacks is that they are Christians living in a Muslim state.

Today, literally minutes after Egypt's new President Mohammed Morsi promised protection to the Christians in Rafah, they were once again attacked.

Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic Christian home in Rafah with machine guns. They sprayed the entire house with bullets.

It is hard for us to understand why this is happening. Why are Christians being threatened and killed in Egypt and why are they not being protected?

It should be understood that in the Middle East minority rights are not protected by the state. Even if it is illegal to attack minorities seldom are they protected from the Muslims masses.

Minorities live in a balance and in fear that at any moment they can be attacked.

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October 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a huge religious and political conflict.

The conflict surrounds the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca. In that part of the world, one cannot differentiate between religious and political issues.

Saudi Arabia deported 1000 female Nigerian pilgrims from Mecca. The Saudis claim that the women were not chaperoned. After the issue had been resolved, Saudi Arabia airlifted all of those women who were deported and wanted to return to Mecca, back to Mecca. And they brought back even more.

It was a great insult to Nigeria done without consulting Nigeria. For the Saudis, it was a swift bureaucratic move. For Nigeria, it was an act of humiliation. Saudi Arabia publicly embarrassed Nigeria and their pilgrims, known as Hajji.

A new policy also emerged, one that the Nigerians agree with. The new policy as articulated by the Saudi National Hajj Commission says that:

"Female pilgrims who are above 45 years of age can perform the annual Hajj without guarantor, while those below the 45 years should have their guarantors indicated in their passports in the name of their respective Pilgrims Welfare Board's managements."

In the end 23,000 Nigerian Hajjis were brought to Mecca after this conflict as a peace offering to Nigeria.

For the time being the conflict between Nigeria and Saudi Arabia is on hold.

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Friday October 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Flotillas have become a hot item in the guerrilla theater of international politics.

Women on Waves is an abortion advocacy program. They sail into places where abortion is illegal, counsel women and deliver day after pills that result in the abortion of fetuses. They engage in abortion education.

The group had been visiting Catholic countries including Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Now they have set their sights on the Arab country of Morocco where performing an abortion is punishable by 20 years in prison.

Morocco blockaded the port with warships to prevent Women on Waves from entering on their large ships. But Women on Waves persisted and they slipped in by way of the port of Smir. They tricked the Moroccan navy and sent a small yacht instead of their much large vessel to enter the port. The activists never left the ship and did not attempt to step foot in Morocco.

Obviously there are many clandestine and illegal abortions performed in Morocco. Like most Arab countries, Morocco is very conservative when it comes to these issues. They do not want it spoken about in public and family matters like this fall under the purview of Islamic law and tradition.

This flotilla will certainly alienate Moroccans on the street - even if the people themselves have participated in illegal abortions.

Private is private and what is done in private is neither done nor spoken about in public. In public, Moroccans toe the Muslim line.

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Thursday October 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran admitted that they were victim to an aggressive cyber attack on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The admission is unusual and was broadcast on local TV. Iran does not like to admit that their infrastructure is exposed to soft attacks like hacking and viruses.

Mehdi Akhavan Behabadi who is the head of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace, a new committee organized to try to defend Iran from these hacks said "we had a heavy attack against the country's infrastructure and communications companies which has forced us to limit the Internet."

He continued, "All of these attacks have been organized. And they have in mind the country's nuclear, oil, and information networks."

Iran is constantly being attacked. Iran also operates the largest internet filter in the world blocking out whatever they deem to be improper. And recently there has been a huge uproar among Iranians because their government has been blocking Gmail.

This admission could be a simple deflection - nothing having to do with Iran is what it appears to be on the surface. The Iranians are blaming the US and Israel for cyber attacks like Stuxnet and Flame and DUQU.

So yes, there are viruses and there are hackers hacking away at Iran. But this announcement could also easily be Iran's communication ministry deflecting responsibility for taking it too far and filtering their internet too much.

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Wednesday October 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Human Rights Watch published a report today, it is entitled Abusive System: Failures of the Criminal Justice System in Gaza.

This report is a scathing critique of Hamas. It records how now, five years after Hamas ousted the Palestinian Authority from Gaza and control the area, they conduct midnight arrests, engage in prolonged torture and do not permit people to see lawyers for weeks and months after arrest - and all that just should not happen.

The report goes into great detail on how Hamas security police torture their victims.

Human Rights Watch has shored up its credibility. For years HRW relentlessly criticized Israel and turned a blind eye toward abuses elsewhere.

I for one was not surprised by the reports results. I was pleased to see that HRW finally realizes and is addressing the Hamas problem.

These abuses take place regularly. The report is only 43 pages long, but at least it comes forward and holds Hamas accountable for countless deaths and brutal torture.

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Tuesday October 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Iran decided to shut down Google and Gmail. The decision came in response to the YouTube video mocking the Prophet Mohammed.

There are 32 million Gmail accounts in Iran. That is an unbelievable number given that the total population of Iran is 75 million. Iran is also one of the top 20 countries of users of Google.

People are starting to complain and the Iranians will probably lift the ban. Actually, it is highly placed officials who are complaining. Even members of parliament have complained to the communication ministry because they no longer have access to email.

In addition, people are spending huge amounts of money to scam the blockade and end around it using proxy sites that then deliver Gmail and YouTube service.

This may be just another small nail in the coffin of Iran. There is a basic rule in oppressive regimes. Do not mess with people's email. Read it, tap it, but do not deny it.

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Monday October 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The lines have been drawn in the Middle East. Countries are assuming their positions. Tensions are on the rise.

Mohammed Morsi, the new president of Egypt, visited Turkey yesterday. He made it very clear that Egypt and Turkey are united against Syria and for the Palestinians.

He said: "Our common goal is to support other people who are standing up against their administrations or regimes, to support Palestine and the Syrians in their efforts."

This statement by Morsi draws tensions between those who support the Assad regime - principally Iran - and those who support the rebellion.

Morsi was also underscoring tensions with Israel. In this case, by saying that they are united in support of Palestinians he means that Egypt and the Palestinians are united in their confrontation with and isolation of Israel.

All of this sets a tone. By making these statements Morsi is trying to re-position Egypt back into the role of regional leader.

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Sunday September 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Chemical Company's "Aqua Tab," a simple tablet that purifies water and makes it drinkable, will now be used in Syria.

Syria has been in a recent crisis situation over the lessening amount of fresh water available to them and this will solve the problem.

UNICEF asked for the tablets and Israel will sell them to Syria through their Irish subsidiary. The deal needed to be approved by the Israeli government because it meant, in essence, delivering goods to an enemy.

The Israeli Minister of Economics approved the deal for three reasons:

#1: it was for humanitarian purposes
#2: it was being provided by a 2nd party
#3: it was being given to UNICEF and not Syria.

The Syrian water situation will not be totally solved by the Aqua Tab, but it will alleviate the crisis and permit people to have basic water until their own infrastructure problems can be resolved.

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Saturday September 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We need a playbill to follow all the scene changes and dialogue that has captured center stage at the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

One set of issues worth watching and monitoring, is of course, the dialogue between Netanyahu and Abbas. Even more interesting than the interplay between these two leaders are the various reactions to their interplay.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas spoke about the need to resume talks in order to advance an agreement.

Hamas was livid. They could not believe that Abbas addressed the world assembly and called for dialogue and talks with Israel. Hamas called these comments destructive and said Abbas was going against the interests of the Palestinian people. That the real emphasis should be on unity talks between Palestinians.

The Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt declared that there cannot be talks with Israel. And newly elected president of Egypt Mohammed Morsi said that there will be no talks with Israel. Morsi, it goes without saying, must toe the line of the Brotherhood.

The comments are ridiculous. Practically speaking Egypt is talking with Israel even at the highest levels. But to make a public display of it would tarnish the image of the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Friday September 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Several days ago in the Sinai Egyptian town of Rafah the Christians living there received a note on their doorsteps. "You Have Two Days to Leave or Else" read the piece of paper.

After two days militants sped through Rafah on motorcycles firing machine guns. It was frightening. There was property damage but no one was hurt.

The Christian leaders of Rafah ran to the newly appointed regional governor. He told the Christian leaders that he would happily facilitate their relocation to the nearby city of Al Arish. He did not offer to try to protect them or even investigate the threats.

Over the past year the ancient beautiful church of Rafah has been firebombed and looted. It has been nearly razed to the ground.

The church dates itself to the time of Jesus but its structure and design is Crusader. It survived a thousand years but could only withstand a few month of Muslim Brotherhood rule.

It is unclear if any Christians remain in Rafah anymore. But this is a very foreboding sign.

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Thursday September 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab Spring might have arrived in Gaza.

Yesterday over 500 people rallied and demanded that Hamas step down. The protests were a result of the tragic death of a 3 year old baby burned to death in a fire caused by candles due to the electricity blackouts.

Hamas blames the electric blackouts on Egypt.

It is against the law in Gaza to protest against the Hamas government. So when 500 people gather in the streets to call for ousting them, that is big news.

This story should be covered around the world. Let's see if Arab news agencies, especially Arabic TV, pick it up.

If this takes hold and protests continue it just could cause an ousting of Hamas.

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Wednesday September 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

There is a new ad on the subways and buses in New York City. It will run for a month. The ad has already been running in San Francisco.

The ad reads: "In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel/Defeat Jihad."
In July the MTA lost a federal case after they refused to post it.

The ad is now in 10 subway stations.

While this ad certainly articulates strong ideas, it is not offensive in and of itself. What it does is draw a line between Western support for Israel and the terrible violence and murder that has emerged in the Middle East.

The ad was created before the 9-11 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.

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Tuesday September 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Gaza has banned the import of Israeli fruit - with the exception of bananas and apples. The ban has increased the cost of fruit by 100%.

The already tough economic conditions in Gaza have now become even more difficult because Hamas wants to boycott Israel. Even fruits like grapes that grow in Gaza have spiked by 50%.

This boycott will increase prices and in the end, it will force people to starve.

Hamas Director of Marketing in the Ministry of Agriculture Tasheen al Saqqa said, in response to the change in policy, that --- "We are people under blockade and we should have the culture of resistance." "Why should someone have all kinds of fruits on his table?"

Hamas wants to hurt Israel by closing Gaza as a market for fresh fruits.

This is very revealing insight into their leadership and point of view. In reality the boycott is hurting the people of Gaza much more than it hurts Israel. The market for Israel is a paltry $26 million.

Losing the fruit will hurt Gaza badly and affect Israel almost not at all.

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Monday September 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

French police arrested two people yesterday for plotting to behead the editor of the satirical magazine that published caricatures of the prophet Mohammed.

The suspects had knives and posted demands and took claim for the plan to behead editor Charlie Hebdo.

This should not be a surprise. This magazine is notorious for lampooning anything and everything. It was not the first time they lampooned the Prophet. Lampoon and caricatures are the medium that Hebdo regularly uses.

Security has been higher than normal at the magazine lately. But the reality is that neither Hebdo nor his publication will be intimidated by threats. They believe that making fun of situations is their editorial contribution to political discourse in France.

This is not a debate over issues of censorship and free press. It is well within the purview of this or any other journal to raise these questions - and they will certainly continue to do so.

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Sunday September 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week NY Post gossip columnist Cindy Adams ran a very short item which knocked my socks off.

The gossip queen of New York City quoted a conversation with Henry Kissinger. Kissinger needs no introduction, for the past few decades the free world has hung on to almost every word, certainly every diplomatic comment, he has made.

I found this particular comment to be more than disturbing. On September 17th Adams wrote: "Reported to me, Henry Kissinger has stated - and I quote the statement word for word: 'In 10 years, there will be no more Israel.'

I repeat: 'In 10 years, there will be no more Israel.'" Even uttering the words is almost beyond fathomable.

There was no real context for the quote other than to say that given the situation with Iran and what at the Democratic National Convention regarding their platform and Israel, Kissinger felt compelled to tell Adams his point of view.

Yes, Israel is confronting great risks and Iran's potential for nuclear weapon is one of them. And there are certainly forces on the fringe of the Democratic Party not friendly to Israel. But making that leap and predicting that Israel will be destroyed is very dangerous and even irresponsible.

People listen to Kissinger. People - both people on the street and people in position to make important decisions trust his analysis.

Given what the former secretary of state, Nobel Peace Prize winner and diplomat par excellence has said, why would anyone invest in or aid Israel to the tune of billions of dollars per year as we do, if there is no future there beyond a single decade.

Even if he believed what he said, it was wrong to say. Certainly, dropping this bomb shell to a gossip columnist, as credible as Cindy Adams is, was inappropriate.

Self fulfilling prophecies is not just a throw away phrase.

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Saturday September 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

More than a thousand people took to the streets yesterday in
Benghazi, Libya. They were demanding that the Islamic militias put down their weapons.

The protesters also shouted that the government should force the militias to follow the law and disarm.

There is little chance of that happening.

Libya is composed of 140 tribes and each of them is armed. Each tribe needs weapons to defend itself against other tribes. Embedded in the tribes are subgroups - including al Qaeda affiliates like those who attacked the US consulate and murdered the United States ambassador to Libya.

The fact that there was a protest like that in Benghazi is a positive sign. But do not read too much into it. The attack on the US consulate was also a sign of the times in Libya. And so is the fact that the militia will not lay down their weapons.

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Friday September 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Thirty nations are participating in naval maneuvers in and around the Straits of Hormuz. The focus of the exercises is to detect and be able to defend against underwater mines and against mines that may be placed on ships by hostile forces.

This is the biggest naval maneuver of this sort in history.

The admiral in charge of the US 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral John W. Miller, announced that all these countries are committed to keeping the shipping lanes of the Straits of Hormuz open to international shipping and make certain that the oil keeps flowing.

Thirty nations working together. That's how important the Straits of Hormuz is. That's how crucial the oil that travels through those Straits is to every one of us.

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Thursday September 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Arabic news was filled with coverage of the Syrians saying that Saudi Arabia has denied Syrians access to Mecca for the Holy pilgrimage Hajj. The official Syrian new agency SANA reported that Saudi Arabia refused to permit Syrians from the Hajj because of the way the Assad regime has responded to the uprising.

"The Syrian Supreme Hajj Committee has banned this season's pilgrimage because the Saudi Ministry of Hajj did not sign the pilgrimage agreement on time, although the committee met all required procedures."

The Arabic world was alight with the question as to whether the Hajj should be political and whether Saudi Arabia should force its own political point of view on those who will make the pilgrimage.

And then, within hours the Saudi Ministry of the Hajj released a statement saying that Syrian Muslims were indeed welcome as always this year, too.

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Wednesday September 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The international community is a gearing up for a serious discussion about Iran's nuclear program.

Next week the EU 3+3 will meet to discuss matters (that means 3 from the EU --- France, Germany, Britain + 3 --- China, Russia, United States). More than that, the Iranian nuclear program will be the topic touched on by almost every speaker representing a Western country during the course of the UN General Assembly.

Western countries are not alone in the quest to halt Iran's nuclear development. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recently stopped a ship and confiscated its cargo of carbon fiber headed to Iran.

Carbon fiber is used to make a better rotor to spin a centrifuge. It is strong, flexible and can spins effectively and efficiently.

The use of carbon fiber will boost Iran's centrifuge capabilities manifold so stopping its import was extremely important.

Intelligence sources are saying that Iran will be at the stage of 90% uranium refinement within six months. After that the only thing Iran needs to do is perfect their delivery and rocket systems.

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Tuesday September 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammed Ali Jefari, held a press conference on Sunday.

This is a rare happening in Iran. Jafari is rarely seen in public and even less often does he speak to the press.

Jafari warned Israel not to attack and said that the US was not at all likely to strike Iran. Then he admitted that the al Qods brigade is in Lebanon and in Syria.

This is the first official time that anyone in Iran has admitted that there are Iranian forces stationed in Syria and Lebanon.

He qualified it saying that they are only there to advise and lend aid. But yet, he admitted that they were, indeed, there.

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Monday September 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Sunday Telegraph of London reported that England is sending an entire armada to the Straits of Hormuz.

All kinds of ships including battleship and aircraft carriers are on their way to support 25 other nations and their naval presence in the narrow stretch of water through which 20-30% of the world's oil flows.

The British are moving their forces into line with the US and other Western powers as a threat against Iran and as Iran flexes her muscles.

If Iran were to actually move from threat to action and begin to close the Straits, countries would be there ready to act to try to keep that important waterway open.

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Sunday September 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Today I saw a piece that showed just how dangerous the war of rhetoric can get. Imagination and technology are very powerful tools.

Iran is suffering from a drought. Iranian news is covering the drought - and blaming it on their enemies. It goes without saying that everyone reading or hearing the reports know that "enemies" means Israel and the US.

Here is the quote attributed to Ahmadinejad.
"The enemy destroys the clouds that are headed towards our country and this is a war Iran will win."

This kind of contrived verbal attack sends another message and it always boomerangs. Ahmadinejad's message to his people reinforces just how technologically advanced and superior the United States and Israel are over Iran. It transforms enemies into super-humans.

In a culture that feeds on conspiracies this is very, very dangerous. The rhetoric and the theories take on a life of their own, they become believable and assumed to be true.

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Saturday September 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

As I watch the protests taking place in Iran and the read the banners screaming hatred of the United States and announcing the end of America, I am acutely aware not only of the turmoil, but of an underlying subtext running alongside the banners and announcements.

When the United States tightened sanctions on Iran, Iran fought back by boycotting US products.

The Iranian boycott of US products has not been very successful on big ticket items, but it has affected smaller products.

Coke is still a very hot item in the markets. And the most-in-demand Made in the USA items in Iran are Apple iphones and ipads.

Of course, they need to be hacked so that they can be used on the local Iranian information system, but they are the hottest hits on the market.

While hatred of the United States runs true and deep in Iran, it does not extend to US products and technology. Actually, and this is what makes a serious situation look comical, many of the protest participants are being invited to take part in angry protests aimed at the United States via cell phone technology developed in the United States.

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Friday September 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is the public tension that has emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama that grabs media attention while important and successful exchanges go mostly unnoticed.

On Wednesday, the day it was announced that President Obama would tape David Letterman at the very time the Israeli prime minister requested to meet with him, Obama and Netanyahu spoke on the phone for an hour. They spoke about the Iranian threat, they updated one another and they discussed the various options on the table.

Most importantly, they decided to be back in touch and to inform each other of further updates.

It is clear that Obama and Netanyahu do not have good chemistry - but at this level of leadership it is diplomacy rather than chemistry that takes precedence.

In a veiled apology to Israel the US president sent out his traditional Jewish High Holiday blessing yesterday. Obama mentioned reconciliation and spoke of reaching out to right wrongs. "We're called to seek each other out and make amends for those moments when we may not have lived up to our values as well as we should."

To some, this message will sound sincere, others will hear it as patronizing. Listening to the New Year greeting, I cast my vote for sincere.

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Wednesday September 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Sunday Times of London has brought up the secret weapon that Israel might use against the Iranians. It is the EMP or, in long hand, the electromagnetic pulse.

The Sunday Times of London calls the EMP the weapon of choice in an attack against Iran because it is considered non lethal.

The principle behind the EMP is that a huge microwave or gamma wave crashes and burns every electronic element in Iran. Every machine that operates on electricity and battery would be fried rendering the Iranians powerless in the face of an Israeli attack.

The Times piece focused on the gamma ray. It is highly unlikely that Israel would use a nuclear ray. And to my mind, at this point, it is unlikely that Israel would use the EMP - period. They have much more precise electronic jamming and disabling weapons. The Israelis could easily shut down all phone, computer, internet and other communications without using the EMP.

The EMP would take out hospitals and pacemakers. It would knock out the water supply and the sewage. There would be crises in the streets and a huge shortage of food and supplies. Within hours Iran would be thrust into internal anarchy and mayhem.

This would not be Israel's objective. Israel's fight is not with the Iranian people. Israel's goal is to cripple or delay Iran's nuclear development.

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Tuesday September 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmad Saadat, was the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the PFLP. He was arrested for planning the successful assassination of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi at a Jerusalem hotel in October 17, 2001.

Saadat was tried in a military court. He is now serving a 30 year term for his role in the assassination and for heading a terrorist organization.

Saadat was, once again, brought to court. This time he was there as part of the evidence stage in a civil trial brought by the family of Keren Shatasky who was murdered in a terror attack in Karnei Shomron in 2002.

The trial has been ongoing since 2002. It started in Washington and is now gathering more evidence in Israel. The charge is that the PA enabled the PFLP and provided the PFLP money, weapons and information with which was used by the PFLP to perpetrate their attacks - murdering Keren and many others.

Saadat refused to accept the jurisdiction of the court. He did not answer any questions, he just flashed the V sign for victory.

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Monday September 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The rial, the currency of Iran, fell 7% in a single day. It happened yesterday and then picked up a little toward the end of the day. The damage to the currency was still dramatic.

Over several days in January the rial took a similar hit. This current drop in value can be blamed on the potential for further anti nuclear sanctions against Iran by the United States and the West.

Some background: I am referring to the street rate of the rial against the dollar, not the official rate. The street rate is a more true representation of the value of currency. The official rate, which is double that value, shows not the real worth of the currency, but rather, what the official government thinks it to be worth.

That explains why the street rate was about 24,300 rials to a dollar and the official rate was 12,260 rials to a dollar.
The name "rial" comes from the Spanish "real" which was the Spanish currency that represented the "rey" of the ruler/king. After the Iranian revolution it took years to mint new currency. The Shah's face was on the bills for as long as a decade.

Today all the currency in Iran has the picture of the Ayatollah Khomeni, leader of the Islamic revolt.

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Sunday September 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The schedule of speakers for the United Nations General Assembly has been made public. There are no real surprises in the lineup - it is the timing of the speeches that is important.

No doubt about it, almost everyone of import and significance addressing the GA will focus in some part on Iran and their nuclear aspirations.

US President Barack Obama will speak on opening day, September 25. President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will speak on Wednesday the 26 which, significantly, is also Yom Kippur. And Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak the next day on the 27th.

Scheduling Ahmadinejad's speech for Yom Kippur is a sure way of trying to ratchet down tensions, public anger and protests against the Iranian president. Very few Jews will forgo their fast, synagogue prayers or family time to attend a protest at the UN in NYC on the holiest day of the Jewish year.

That said, the prospect of the speech Ahmadinejad is about to give may become the most important and popular material for Rabbi's pulpit sermons. Rabbi's sermons will replace protests. In the end, that may well be an effective educational and leadership tool.

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Saturday September 8, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has announced that presidential elections will take place June 14, 2013.

The most important element in this announcement is that the current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, cannot seek reelection. The constitution of Iran prevents any candidate from serving more than two terms and Ahmadinejad has had his two.

The last Iranian election was in 2009. The lead up to the election and the immediate aftermath caused tremendous upheaval. That period is now known as the Green Revolution. Tens of thousands of Iranians swarmed the streets and many more silently supported a change in regime and challenged the results of the election.

Most of all those candidates who opposed Ahmadinejad have since been arrested and placed under house arrest. Contrary to popular conceptions in the United States and in the West, almost all the opposing candidates were even more extreme than Ahmadinejad.

This upcoming election will pit supporters of Ahmadinejad against more radical factions. But even then, the only real voice, the only voice that counts is that of the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamanei.

Whichever candidate the Grand Ayatollah taps will be the next president of Iran. It doesn't even pay to count the popular vote. That is how elections are conducted in Iran.

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Friday September 7, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Associated Press has reported that the United States is bolstering its presence on the Syrian Turkish border. The report explains that the new manpower positioned on the Turkish side of the divide is composed of spies.

The job of an intelligence operative, aka spy, is multi dimensional.

In this case they are there to advise and help the rebels who are fighting Bashar Assad's better armed and better trained official forces. The spies are also there to monitor how al Qaeda is infiltrating into the rebel forces.

There are reports of as many as 25,000 al Qaeda fighters in Syria fighting against Assad.

That is a huge number given that the total number of rebel fighters is only between 60,000 and 70,000 strong.

Spies try to do their work undercover, that is, without anyone knowing who they really are and what they are really doing. News outlets do their work by investigation and uncovering what is supposed to be kept secret and hidden. Hopefully, the US spies will carry out their jobs as well as AP carried out theirs.

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Thursday September 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

After removing Jerusalem and God from the Democratic platform both are back in good standing.

The new platform reads: "Jerusalem is and will remain the capital of Israel." And: "The parties have agreed that Jerusalem is a matter for final status negotiations. It should remain an undivided city accessible to people of all faiths."

In a statement read by Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz the correction was explained. She said: "The platform is being amended to maintain consistency with the personal views expressed by the President and in the Democratic Party platform in 2008."

God was returned to the platform echoing exactly the 2008 language with the lines: "we need a government that stands up for the hopes, values and interests of working people and gives everyone willing to work hard the chance to make the most of their God-given potential."

The mistake was taking them out. They were not returned because of Republican outcry or Israel or AIPAC. No one could actually say who took them out and who had the final say in the platform.

It is clear that Jerusalem and God were reinstated in the Democratic platform because it was wrong to take them out and the masses i.e. voters wanted them back in.

There is always a bottom line.

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Wednesday September 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Israel Electric Company (IEC) is attacked between 10,000 and 20,000 times a day. That's right, a day.

The electric company is a good, ripe target for cyber terrorists and cyber attackers. If the electricity of Israel is compromised, the entire country is in danger. That means everything from water and hospitals to defense systems and planes.

One would think that most of these attacks against Israel would come from the greatest enemy of Israel today, i.e. Iran. But that would be an incorrect assumption.

Iranian attacks on Israel number only 100 - 200 per day. That could be the work of a single hacker or of a few teenagers. It is hardly a massive cyber offensive by Iran. It certainly is not a dedicated team of high level mathematicians and computer scientists attempting to hack into Israel's soft underbelly.

Where do most of the 10,000 to 20,000 daily attacks come from? Most of the attacks come from China, Russia and North Korean. When you think about it that makes much more sense.

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