Friday March 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Rumors and reports have been spreading all over the Middle East for the past 48 hours.
The word is that the Palestinians will not join indirect talks with Israel under the present circumstances. The Palestinians are calling for US Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell to force Israel to stop all settlement activity.
The information made its way to the press via Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League. Moussa says that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was his source for the information.
The State Department spokesman says that they know nothing of this.
The Palestinians have not told the Americans about their cold feet.
The Palestinians are continuing the chorus they have been repeating for the past 15 months.
There is no way out of this dilemma unless the Palestinians give in.
The Israelis agreed to the indirect talks knowing that the Palestinians could never back down.
Now the Palestinians have a choice - they can appear weak or they can appear strong.
Weak would be join the Israelis for indirect talks, strong would be opposing the talks.
Odds are the Palestinian will have it both ways.
They will refuse to talk now and resume talks at a later date.
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Wednesday March 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has announced the construction of 1600 new apartments.
The announcement was a major embarrassment for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The announcement was made while US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel.
Netanyahu had told everyone, his cabinet, his advisers and even his press people ... no surprises ... no embarrassments.
Biden was forced to give Israel a tongue lashing. A perfectly uneventful and exclusively positive visit was turned into a tense moment and an international diplomatic incident.
Why? What motivated an announcement like that?
The decision was made by head of the Shas party and Minister of the Interior, Eli Ishai.
Ishai wanted to deliberately taunt the United States and their micro management of Israel.
Ishai used this announcement to say to the Israeli public that his party will not bend to the will of the United States.
Ishai was saying that the United States is not the most powerful force in the universe.
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Tuesday March 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Sunday's election in Iraq was a water shed event.
This was the second ever free democratic election in Iraq. This year 62.4% of the people came out to vote, in the 2005 election, 76% voted. The results are still not clear and even after the results are made public it will take a few weeks for us to understand what is really happening.
The most important revelation to emerge from this election is that the Sunni population came out to vote. In 2005 the Sunnis were effectively removed from any chance of holding elected office because they had boycotted the election.
The delicate balance that has been forged between Sunnis and Shiites since 2005, what we call Iraq today, may yet be shattered. The Sunnis want to put serious distance between Iran and Iraq, they want to make certain that Shiite tones are not sounded in Iraq.
We don't yet know what will happen.
We do know that the big loser in this election is definitely al Qaeda.
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Monday March 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
According to the Israeli press, Israeli leaders have issued an ultimatum to Palestinian leaders.
In private conversations, Israel has told Palestinian leaders that they must move and move seriously to prevent the Palestinian uprising.
The Israelis said that if tensions and incitement do not drop significantly Israel will start making arrests. This comes in response to a dramatic increase in public incitement against Israel - incitement that has been unofficially condoned by public officials.
A Palestinian rebellion is in the making.
Israel is trying to convince Palestinians leadership that a rebellion against Israel is not in their long term interests.
Israel will not permit the Palestinians to create another Intifada.
I think the Palestinians have gotten Israel's message - now they have to make a decision.
If there is another Intfada, thousands of Palestinian will die and any hope of Palestinian statehood will be pushed off again.
But an Intifada is good for local, political, popular support it will look as if Palestinian leadership is taking a stand against Israel.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a resumption of indirect negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, scheduled to be announced later today.
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Sunday March 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday night US Presidential special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell landed in Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
This meeting sets the stage for the announcement of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. On Monday Joe Biden arrives in the region and everything is expected be in place for the vice president.
This is a classically well choreographed American event.
It will be pitched perfectly for history, for the cameras, for the world to watch.
The only problem is that the parties are not quite up to the task.
Israel and the Palestinians have been playing a game and neither has been honest about their stand on indirect talks.
The Israelis and the Palestinians are placating the United States.
We will learn what they each really want only after the talks begin.
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Saturday March 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Under new leadership, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has begun to take nuclear development by Iran and Syria much more seriously than it had in the past.
Over the past several months Syria has been challenged by the IAEA on more that one occasion.
An IAEA report shows beyond the shadow of any doubt that Israel destroyed a nuclear facility in deep in Syria.
The Syrian ambassador to the IAEA, Bassam Sabbag, insists that it is not so.
Sabbag claims that the uranium readings that were detected were a set up by the Israelis.
Sabbag claims that the Israeli sprinkled uranium in the area after they bombed the agricultural facility.
Conspiracies and conspiracy theories abound in the Middle East.
The more far fetched they are, the more likely they are to spread with a vengeance
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Friday March 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A team of Australian police investigators is now in Israel investigating the case of the Australian passports that were used during the assassination of Mahmoud Mabhouh.
This is not unusual.
What turns this bit of investigative work into news is that on Thursday, after leaving the Australian Embassy in Tel Aviv, the team hit a female bicyclist with their vehicle. They ran over the bike and kept on going.
They did not stop.
This is a serious violation of the law in any country. That police officials did not stop is scandalous. The woman, thankfully, was not badly injured. She is, however, demanding an apology and a new bicycle wheel.
In general, one of the rules of safe counter espionage in very risky environments is not to stop after minor accidents.
What appears to be a minor accident can in actuality be a trick, an attempt to kidnap the operative or to place a bug.
But this was downtown Tel Aviv.
An innocent, however unfortunate, encounter may now turn into a diplomatic incident. This time there is real evidence - as opposed to the assassination the Australian team is investigating which is filled with speculation.
Then again, this would be a Mossad-like tactic to discredit the Australians, wouldn't it.
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Wednesday March 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
One of the best ways of finding out the agenda of any country in the Middle East is by observing who is talking to whom face to face.
The vice president of Iraq, Tarik Hashemi, arrived in Damascus for a two day diplomatic visit. What makes the visit unusual is the fact that Iraq and Syria do not have diplomatic relations.
Iraq blamed Syria for the August bombings that devastated Iraq half a year ago. Iraq said that the Syrians permitted the terrorists to cross their border and then slip back over into Syria.
This meeting is an attempt at building bridges.
It will take much more that a meeting, but it seems that both sides are interested in improving diplomatic relations.
The big problem in all this is that Syria has a vested interest in sponsoring terror.
The big question is whether attacking America is more valuable to Syria than patching things up with Iraq.
Actions speak louder than words, we will have to watch this one carefully.
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Tuesday March 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, made a passionate speech yesterday condemning every Arab country and every Arab leader for inaction - every country except Iran and Syria.
Only Iran and Syria have taken a stand on behalf of Hezbollah and helped Nasrallah's cause.
Nasrallah said, "The Muslim nation must assume its responsibility and not leave the resistance movements alone on the ground."
He said, "When Syria and Iran stand by us clearly they assume their responsibility and should be thanked for that. Assist the Palestinians as Iran does and this will resolve the problem; assume your responsibility."
Arab leadership will not take up Nasrallah's call for assistance and support.
Arab leaders act and do not act for a reason.
Arab leaders will never do anything that endangers their position.
Inaction is always preferred to action.
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Sunday February 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The United States is beginning to get serious with Syria.
The Syrian Ambassador to the US has been summoned to the State Department to meet with US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman
The Syrian Ambassador will be told - in no uncertain terms - that Syria must stop arming Hezbollah.
This change in tone and demands by the United States comes about as the result of a failed trip to Damascus by Under Secretary of State Frank Burns. When Burns asked Syrian President about arming Hezbollah, Assad said he has no idea what Burns was talking about.
Assad did not even deny it.
Assad said he has no idea.
A flat denial would have been a more serious and more respectful response. Saying he had no idea was a snub, suggesting that Burns was not entitled to either a real lie or the truth.
The message will be sent from the ambassador in DC to the president in Damascus.
But no change will take place on the ground in Syria or in Lebanon.
This is a shot across the bow - it is a warning to Syria.
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Saturday February 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Crude oil closed at $79.66 in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Earlier in the day, it topped the $80 mark.
For the past week oil has been swinging and swinging high. On Friday it hit a benchmark.
There are many reasons why oil prices go up.
Suffice it to say, increased oil prices do not help either the consumer or the West. The people best helped by increased oil prices are enemies of the US. First and second on the list are Iran and Venezuela.
The US wants to apply sanctions on Iran and this surge in oil prices is exactly what they need to give them the extra cash to ride out any of the potential rough spots that might emerge over the next few months.
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Friday February 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a day trip to Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was in Syria getting all his ducks in a row.
Assad and Ahmadinejad agreed on several issues.
At their joint press conference the leaders announced that the United States should pack up and get out of the Middle East.
The Iranian leader also met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shallah.
They all want to make certain that should there be another conflict with Israel, a united Islamic front will emerge.
They will fail.
There is a natural inclination for Muslim leaders to proclaim unity, but in reality, history shows us that in crisis, it is every Middle East leader for himself.
Should the time ever come, Iran will not lift a hand to protect either Hamas or Islamic Jihad.
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Thursday February 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has issued a warning.
They told every country that flies to Iran that from now on the water surrounding the area must be referred to as the "Persian Gulf" and not by the more commonly used name the "Arabian Gulf."
They said that every map and every piece of paper, even inside airplanes and used solely for traveler entertainment purposes, must reflect the change.
Countries that do not comply with this demand will lose their landing rights in Iran.
The conflict of "Persian Gulf" versus "Arabian Gulf" is the conflict that caused the cancellation of the Islamic games earlier this year.
Last year National Geographic referred to the water improperly and the magazine, their maps and their atlases were all banished from Iran. After a long discussion and much begging National Geographic is now back in Iran.
Iran is dead serious, they are not playing around.
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Tuesday February 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Finally, after way too long, the bones of an Egyptian nobleman have been returned to their rightful owner.
In 2008 Miami Airport officials confiscated a sarcophagus flying from Madrid to Spain. The box was from the 21st Egyptian Dynasty dating from 975-1010 BCE. It had been out on display and when it returned to the US, the importer did not have proper papers.
Egypt sued to get it returned and they won.
Until the 1950's and the rise of the modern Middle East, natural treasures and local historical prizes were looted by archeologists, grave robbers and traders. And then they were often sold to big name museums and serious collectors.
Many Middle Eastern states still have feelings of anger toward the colonial powers of the West. Many national treasures of the Middle East are still on display in museums in Western capitals around the world. These treasures were often stolen right out of dig sites leaving gaping holes in situ and then brought to London and Paris.
In this case, a historic wrong has been righted.
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Monday February 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Curiosity about the inner workings of the Mossad has ratcheted up ever since the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud Mabhouh.
The Mossad is not an assassination machine, the Mossad is an information gathering organization.
The Mossad is very compartmentalized. Units that are involved in dangerous field operations are the most separate and most compartmentalized of all.
For example: the Kidon Unit is part of the Ceasaria Unit.
The Ceasaria Unit is actually a Mossad within the Mossad. We do not know half of the activities that the Kidon Unit is involved in, but assassinations are not the foundation of the unit.
The Caesaria Unit is like a special projects organization.
Most Caesaria Unit activities involve field intelligence, not just gathering intel but also interaction and engagement. The work is highly pressured - not much cloak and dagger but a lot of acting and deception.
How is information gathered?
Posing as a journalist or lobbyist or traveling businessperson and hanging out in hotel bars, hot cafes and hot tubs is one very useful tool for gathering information and opening up channels of communication.
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Sunday February 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Youkiya Amano of Japan is the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The IAEA is the group charged with inspecting nuclear facilities around the world to make certain that countries work within international nuclear guidelines.
Amano just failed at trying to convince Syria to permit the IAEA unfettered inspection access. Inspecting Syrian facilities is especially important because, according to a newly publicized IAEA report, the facility Israel attacked in September 2007 had traces of nuclear remains
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said absolutely no to the IAEA. "We are committed to the non-proliferation agreement between the agency and Syria and we allow inspectors to come according to this agreement." In other words, Syria agrees to pre-scheduled inspections, but not to unannounced, spot inspections.
Amano wants Syria to join the new protocols which permit any and all inspections.
Syria is not interested and Moallem will not budge on this issue. "We will not allow anything beyond the agreement because Syria does not have a military nuclear program. Syria is not obliged to open its other sites to inspectors."
This situation is not good.
Syria and the IAEA are gearing for a showdown.
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Saturday February 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, also known as the Supreme Leader of Iran, made an announcement.
He said that the West does not understand what Iran is doing.
He said that Iran is not enriching uranium for weapons.
He said that the West does not even realize that for Iran, "it is forbidden to use that kind of weapon."
This is not the first time the Grand Ayatollah has made a pronouncement saying that Islamic law prohibits nuclear weapons.
The problem is that Islamic law also prohibits the murder of innocent people.
Everyone views their own world through their own special spectrum.
Iran seems to view nuclear weapons differently than we in the West view them.
Iran is masterful at clouding the issue and subverting blame - masterful.
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Friday February 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday, Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, added his voice and the voice of the entire Arab League to the voices of Iran and Syria and the rest of the chorus of countries saying they will not sit still if Israel attacks Lebanon.
It sounds good, but in reality, it is simply a gesture - political, rhetoric, machismo.
The Arab League has no army and no power to control the members of the League.
The Iranians are clear about their point of view, they have a serious stake in Southern Lebanon but their purpose in building up Southern Lebanon has always been to create a proxy so that they do not have to get personally involved.
The Syrians view Lebanon as their sovereign territory. They sew seeds of disorder to weaken the central Lebanese government. They want disorder in Lebanon. And they do it all from a distance.
These are real attempts to create unity - even though these statements are only meant for public consumption.
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Wednesday February 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not to be underestimated.
He has keen insight into the Middle East but his intelligence on Israel is open to question.
In a recent statement Ahmadinejad declared:
"According to information we have they (Israel) are seeking to start a war next spring or summer, although their decision is not final yet."
Ahmadinejad did not mention more specifics.
He did not say against whom Israel would go to war, but he did have very specific reasons for making this information public.
Ahmadinejad wants regional leaders and local citizens to be on edge.
He knows that the threat of war will be a galvanizing force in the region, that it will unite all Arab countries against Israel.
Ahmadinejad is probably talking about Israel going to war against Hezbollah, Syria or Iran, but his intelligence is totally off base.
Ahmadinejad will do whatever he can to propel his own agenda forward with other countries in the region.
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Tuesday February 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has been in Israel since Sunday.
Mullen is making the rounds of everyone who is anyone in Israel. He has met with the defense minister, the prime minister, and of course, Gabi Ashkenazi, Israeli Chief of Staff.
They are talking about several ideas - but there is only one topic that is important to both sides, Iran.
The United States wants to make certain that Israel will not act without getting their OK. Mullen made it very clear that the US will do everything to defend Israel.
Mullen also made it clear that but Israel cannot act alone.
The problem with the entire US/Israel exchange is that the United States and Israel are looking at the Iranian problem from very different perspectives.
The United States is thinking in terms of a defensive stand which does not allow for a preemptive strike. For Israel it is all about the offensive.
Without a preemptive strike Iran has a free hand.
More importantly, Iran has the upper hand.
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Monday February 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Lebanon is claiming that they chased four Israeli jets out of their airspace yesterday by shooting anti aircraft weapons at them.
Israel has not commented on either the flights or the shooting.
These flyovers have irked Lebanon for years.
The rhetoric and the frustration are reaching new levels.
Israel has a long history of flying over southern Lebanon.
They use the air space for maneuvers and for reconnaissance.
Israel needs to constantly monitor what happens in Southern Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon is where Hezbollah stores arms and trains for attacks against Israel.
Tensions over Lebanon will continue to climb until the rhetoric calms down.
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Sunday February 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Baroness Jenny Tonge, a member of the British House of Lords in England from the Liberal Party, has been forced to step down as Health Spokesperson for her party.
This past week Tonge was quoted in the Jewish Chronicle urging Israeli authorities to investigate the charge that while in Haiti, Israeli doctors harvested organs at their mobile surgical hospital.
Jenny Tonge should be ashamed.
When a Baroness raises this kind of myth publicly she is acting as the spokesperson for anti-Semites, nor for her party.
I commend Liberal Party leadership for removing Tonge from her position.
There is no truth to the canard.
It is an outright lie.
It is a modern-day blood libel.
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Saturday February 13, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Somali pirates released a ship and its hostages after the government of Taiwan paid the ransom.
The men were released on Thursday, the ship was seized ten months ago.
The ship was a tuna fishing boat with a crew of thirty aboard.
In the course of captivity, three crew members died.
The story of Somali pirates has died down - but there are still seven ships and about 160 crew members still held captive.
The International Task Force has had some small impact. Last week, for example, a team of Danish commandos stormed and freed a ship.
But they are still far from freeing ships and captives and ridding the world of piracy.
We need a serious response to the problem of piracy.
Piracy has transported the shipping industry back to the 18th century where lawless thieves on the open seas bring Western civilizations to their knees.
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Friday February 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
To give you a sense of how tense the situation is in Iran, just look at who was detained yesterday when she arrived in Teheran for a celebration rally marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
The granddaughter of the Ayatollah Khomeini, that's who.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was the founder of the Revolution and his granddaughter was detained along with her husband who also happens to be the brother of the former president of Iran, the Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami.
These are people beyond reproach and with impeccable Iranian pedigrees.
But they are also considered dangerous by today's regime because any action or comments from them could sway many undecided people in Iran away from the current leadership and into the waiting arms of the reformers.
No one is safe in Iran.
Silence speaks as loudly as do actions and involvement.
In Iran there is no such thing as standing safely on the sidelines.
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Wednesday February 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The State Department released Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's schedule yesterday and on the agenda is the Middle East.
The secretary of state will be spending Saturday through Tuesday in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
This is Clinton's first trip to Qatar as the top US diplomat and she will be talking about two major topics.
The first topic she will address is Iran.
The second topic is jump starting the Israel/Palestinian dialogue.
Clinton will be addressing the US - Islamic World Forum and she will deal with these two topics in both public and behind closed doors.
The United States needs to apply pressure on Iran.
The Forum is the perfect place to recruit regional leaders to join forces with the West and help isolate Iran.
This trip by the secretary of state could turn out to be a very effective diplomatic maneuver on the part of the United States.
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Tuesday February 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
An al Qaeda website broadcast an audio recording of Said a Shaheri, the deputy head of al Qaeda in Yemen.
What makes this broadcast newsworthy is the fact that Said a Shaheri was supposed to have been one of 30 leaders killed last month in a Yemeni Air Force raid that strafed their camp.
In the broadcast Shaheri spoke of his true objective and tried to persuade recruits to join his mission.
He said:
"The Christians, the Jews, and the treacherous apostate rulers have pounced on you ... you have no other way out from this plight other than to wage jihad,"
He continued:
"We advise you, our people in the Peninsula, to prepare and carry your weapons and to defend your religion and yourselves and to join your mujahideen brothers."
Said a Shaheri is one of those notorious prisoners released from US custody in Guantanimo Bay, Cuba who has re-emerged as a significant al Qaeda leader.
Upon his return to Yemen Shaheri assumed his previous role and he continues to evade the West.
It is becoming more and more apparent that, best intentions aside, we are the ones who continue to facilitate the growth and strengthening of al Qaeda.
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Monday February 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday CNN broadcast an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan. The Monarch was eloquent as he described the ticking time bomb that is the Middle East.
King Abdullah minced no words.
He said point blank that President Obama needs to dedicate time to change the situation on the ground between Palestinian and Israelis.
The King exaggerated slightly when he said that an opportunity for peace would be lost if not accomplished in the next thirty days. But he was correct in describing correctly the disappointment that is felt throughout the Arab and Muslim world that President Obama has not made the Middle East a top priority.
The King asserted that the possibility for a two-state solution is slipping away. If that opportunity slips away, so will the possibility for normalizing relations between Palestinians and Israelis.
The King implored President Obama to take action now.
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Sunday January 7, 2010
Ive Been Thinking:
It is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Iran has planned a ten day celebration.
The excitement had been limited to the launching of rockets and the unveiling of satellites.
Now, according to Iranian radio, the Iranians are now adding two new missiles to their arsenal.
The first is an anti-helicopter missile.
The second is an anti-armor, anti-tank weapon.
There is an expression: work for peace and prepare for war.
We should assume that Iran is preparing for war and not for peace.
Presenting the new weapons is one of the ways Iran engages in a game of intimidation. The Iranians are demonstrating that they have capabilities and weaponry that will exact a toll on any attacking forces.
Iran has a larger plan.
They are allowing us one glimpse at a time.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday February 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Irish Herald reported yesterday that the assassins who killed Hamas operative Mohamed Mabouh in his hotel room in Dubai were traveling on Irish passports.
The report could not be confirmed from through any other source.
On more than one occasion the Dubai chief of police has said that the killers entered and left on European Union passports.
Most people are still pointing their fingers at Israel.
The use of Irish passports does not give us any clues as to the identity of the assassins. Irish passports issued several years ago are still valid even though they do not contain holograms and RFID chips the way newer passports do. Old passports work perfectly in the hands of any operatives or other unsavory characters like drug traffickers and spies.
RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification chips which use a specific frequency to make certain that they are not counterfeit.
Many border patrols have no idea what an RFID is, so the old Irish passport is still in use.
We may have new information, but it is not yet useful information.
There are many more pieces to this puzzle.
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Friday February 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Russian press is reporting that Moscow will be hosting a very special guest next week.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal will be the honored guest of the Kremlin.
Russia is making a play for influence in the Middle East.
It is not enough for the Russians to simply make statements - they need to make promises and they need to show that they can be a guiding force. That means that they must demonstrate support in the form of humanitarian assistance.
Russia thinks they know how to play the game.
They want to out - maneuver the United States in the region and they are hoping to buy their influence with Hamas. What the Russians do not realize is that Hamas is not for sale. They will take the money and run.
There is no counter balance to Hamas.
Nothing can and nothing will control Hamas - not Iran and not Russia.
Hamas is accountable only to Hamas.
Nothing else matters.
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Wednesday February 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Dennis Blair, the administration's point man on terror, testified before the Senate Committee on Security yesterday.
He said that the Taliban are growing in strength.
He said the Taliban are stronger than they were in 2006.
This is an understatement.
The Taliban are growing in numbers, in weapons and in influence.
Everyone is upset, but almost no one is doing anything to stop it.
Yesterday, the Saudis called upon the Taliban to exile Osama bin Laden.
They used Muslim logic and tried to prevail on the Taliban to reject bin Laden.
Obviously, their plan did not work.
At least the Saudis had an idea and ran with it, even if it was senseless.
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February 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has executed two men for their activities in the aftermath of the June 12 elections.
The men were publicly hanged.
The men were mid level organizers for the opposition.
Several things should be clear:
There is no democracy in Iran.
Those who believe they can bring democracy to Iran will pay with their lives and souls. The purpose of public hangings in Iran is to instill fear in those who might question the power of the system.
The point was made very clearly in Friday's sermon which was broadcast in Teheran.
The conservative cleric Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati delivering the sermon asked for more executions. He wondered why there were not more immediately after the election. He described the need to use a strong hand against the protesters. He said that the protestors may not have understood the proper message because Iranian leadership was not tough enough with them. He said: "If you show weakness now the future will be worse."
Nothing has changed in Iran.
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Monday February 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iran appears to be playing it conservative regarding the price of oil for the next year.
Oil has been hovering around $70 per barrel for the past four months.
Iran submitted a budget based on oil prices being $60 for next year.
Last year Iran's projected budget was $37.50.
80% of Iranian foreign trade comes from oil exports. Everything depends on the price of oil staying above the estimate or the economy will collapse. Education, agriculture and industry will all dry up and fall apart.
This is a projected budget. It does not consider sanctions. It does not consider markets that might dry up.
Time will tell.
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Sunday January 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Every once in a while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comes out with an amazingly astute observation. On Saturday the Iranian president addressed a conference marking the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution.
The official news agency FARS reported his speech. He made it very clear that whoever controls the Middle East controls the world. Ahmadineajd said that while there are numerous countries that have technology, they have no say in the Middle East.
So he asked: "Now the question is who has the last say in the Middle East? Well, of course, the answer is clear to everyone." Obviously, Ahmadinejad was asserting that Iran has the final say. This point of view is enormously illustrative of Iranian motivation and foreign policy and helps us understand why Iran acts the way it does.
Iran believes that Iran is in control of the Middle East and all other countries should recognize them as leader. This is the cause of much inner conflict in the Middle East. It is a significant reason for the resentment Iran feels towards the United States and towards Western involvement in the region.
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Saturday January 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The announcement of the assassination of Hamas strongman Mohamed Mabouh was no shock. Mabouh was killed in his hotel room in Dubai on January 19th, a full 10 days before the announcement was made public.
Hamas officials maintain that they kept the news under wraps in order to help them capture the assassins. The fact is that the killers were long gone by the time the death was reported to the police.
Mabouh entered Dubai under an alias. The Dubai officials say had they know he was there, they would have provided him with security.
Dubai has traditionally been a haven and protected place for wanted characters. The official word is that Mabouh was killed the day after his arrival. The cause of death is harder to work out. One source says he was tortured and electrocuted, that they found electrical burns on his head. Another source says that he was poisoned. A third source says that he was suffocated by a pillow.
Everyone is blaming Israel. The Arabic press across the world and the Western press in Europe that reads the Arabic press have all pointed the finger at Israel. They may be right. Mabouh was responsible for the smuggling of weapons into Gaza from Iran. He was responsible for capturing, torturing and murdering two Israeli soldier in the late 1980's. He was a major player in Hamas military planning wing.
Dubai thinks they have a lead. If it was done properly by Israel ... I would doubt they have a lead. But all signs do point to Jerusalem.
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Friday January 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The US Senate has passed an important bill concerning Iran's gasoline imports. The Senate bill echoes a House bill.
The new Senate law gives President Obama the ability to increase sanctions against Iran. Following the House bill the Senate bill also stipulates that any agency or country that aids Iran by providing them with gasoline will also be subject to serious sanctions and will lose any privileges from the United States.
Iran has the third largest reserves of oil in the world. They are also the fifth largest producer of oil. But the Iranians do not refine oil very well and over 40% of their gasoline is imported.
Stopping the import of gas to Iran or squeezing the suppliers could result in serious and impressive pressure being brought on Iran.
The question remains as to whether squeezing Iran on oil will have any impact on Iranian foreign policy in general and most specifically, on Iranian nuclear policy.
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Wednesday January 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
There has been a huge scuttlebutt going on in the Middle East.
The conflict is over the leadership style of Mahmoud Abbas. Egypt, Israel and the United States are pressuring the Palestinian leader to get back to the negotiating table.
Abbas is pushing back. He has asked the Kings of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to intervene.
An Arabic language paper published in London, with very reliable contacts in Egypt and a proven track record, has reported that Egypt made it clear that unless Abbas gets back to the negotiation table Egypt will totally alienate him. That would be tantamount to breaking down Palestinians leadership.
This is a play for power - Egypt versus Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Jordan may still be able to apply pressure on Egypt.
A bigger game is in the works involving Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the Palestinians.
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Tuesday January 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Mehdi Kharoubi, one of the challengers in Iran's June 12 election has been making news.
Kharoubi, who came in 4th in the elections, has been vehemently critical of the elections. He insists that the results were rigged and that the election was a total farce.
This week Kharoubi was quoted by the official Iranian news service FARS saying that he accepts Ahmadinejad as president despite the fact that the election was fixed. He accepts Ahmadinejad because the Supreme Leader appointed him. AFP followed up and interviewed Kharoubi's son who confirmed the original reports.
"I am still of the same belief that the election was unhealthy and massively rigged. But since the (supreme) leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) endorsed (Ahmadinejad's victory), I believe that he is the head of the government, meaning he is the president."
This is very important insight into Iranian society - even the most revolutionary personalities conform to the wishes of the Supreme Leader.
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Monday January 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Sheik Abdullah el Faisal recently arrived in his native Jamaica.
He arrived on a private jet.
The Sheik is a radical Muslim preacher.
He was found guilty and served time in England for plotting to murder Jews, Americans, Hindus and Christians.
He was also convicted of using words to stir up racial hatred.
Sheik Abdullah el Faisal used to be called Trevor William Forest.
He was the mentor to both Richard Reid, the shoe bomber and to Zacharias Mousaoui, the extra 9-11 hijacker.
On January 22, Abdullah was deported from Kenya. The private jet he traveled on was courtesy of the Kenyan government.
Abdullah el Faisal will not be staying in Jamaica very long. There is no significant Muslim population to preach to in Jamaica.
So now we must ask: where is the next soft target for Sheik Abdullah el Faisal and his preachings.
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Sunday January 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
According to reports, women attached to al Qaeda have been trying to enter the US.
The word is that the women have Western passports.
The word is that at least two of the women are affiliated with the same al Qaeda group that the underwear bomber was connected to.
The word is that the women are thought to be suicide terrorists.
This idea of using women with Western passports as suicide bombers is typical of al Qaeda. It is that type of terror attack that al Qaeda perpetrated in Europe.
Despite the serious weaknesses in United States security measures, everyone entering the country is scrutinized and it is still much harder to enter the US than it is to enter European countries.
We need to stay alert.
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Saturday January 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
President Obama has an interview in this weeks Time magazine.
He admits that he overestimated his ability to bring the Palestinians and the Israelis to a mutual agreement.
Overestimated is an understatement.
Before Obama was in power there was dialogue and discussion.
Now, literally since the very first days of Obama's presidency, there has been no dialogue, no discussion and no independent meetings.
In other words, the good intentions of the President coupled with his poor briefings and complete misunderstanding of the situation has caused the sides to move farther apart then they were before his meddling.
Exactly one year ago the new president insisted on a total settlement freeze as a precondition to talks between Israelis and Palestinians. 365 days later there has been no progress.
Middle East analysts are now singing a round of "I told you so."
Maybe next time he'll listen to us.
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Friday January 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Reality and vision are conflicting over Iran.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday that the United States will not stop, that the United States will not permit Iran to get nuclear weapons.
Just a few minutes earlier the Russian Cabinet was briefed by the head of Rosatom, the private nuclear company building the Iranian nuclear power plant in Busher, and they were told that Busher would open later this year, probably in March. He said there would be no more delays, that they had already been paid their one billion dollars in full.
There is no way the Russians would delay this, they have had the contract since 1995.
Russia can't possibly favor sanctions or any other diplomatic arm twisting if they are actually building the nuclear plant.
Russia might say that they want to stop the Iranians, but they are actively helping them.
There is a serious disconnect between United States and Russian words and actions.
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Thursday January 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A strange announcement was issued yesterday by Gill Tudor the spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to the announcement, the West and Iran still have a proposal to discuss.
The IAEA said: "The proposal made by the IAEA in October 2009, which was supported by France, Russia and the United States, continues to be on the table."
The Iranians will take this to be serious weakness on the part of the West.
The October proposal was countered by Iran, rejecting the Western advance.
Not pulling the proposal or counter-countering the proposal was a serious mistake by the West.
Iran seems to understand exactly what the West is doing - well before the West does.
Iran anticipates the moves of the West simply because they are very good at this game.
Iran is playing for serious stakes and we, the West, seem to be playing for fun.
Winners are normally the pros, not the amateurs.
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Tuesday January 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Last week the Ministry of Religion in Hamas-controlled Gaza called for a prayer to ask Allah, in the name of Mohammed, to send down rain.
The Rabbis in Israel have been calling for rain since the first week of December.
This week, everyone's prayers were answered.
The rain came in floods.
It is filling the aquifers, the lakes, the rivers and it is watering the crops.
But nothing is ever simple in the Middle East.
In the Middle East there is a rainy season and there is an arid season. When there is not enough rain the ground turns very hard and when the rain finally does arrive the ground is not soft enough to absorb it. If the ground is not properly prepped during the dry season, disaster will strike during the rainy season. The result is run off and flash flooding, powerful currents of water strong enough to carry away homes and tractor trailers and the people inside them.
Now people are dying and drowning and many are homeless.
Damage to land and infrastructure is significant.
The higher authority heard the prayers.
Local and municipal authorities did not.
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Monday January 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday, in New York, the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, also known as the Power of 6, met to discuss Iran.
The group made a decision to work on two tracks:
# 1: to move ahead on the political/diplomatic front
# 2: to intensify sanctions
On Sunday, the Iranians held a press conference to declare that the 5 plus Germany meeting was a failure. They proved their point by claiming that the decisions taken by the group were unreasonable.
The Power of 6 released their own statement saying that they spent most of the meeting trying to intensify the move toward sanctions.
It's all about spin
The Iranians are spinning and the Power of 6 is spinning.
But in the end, spin makes no difference at all.
The only way to bring sanctions against Iran is to have China call for those sanctions.
And China is not budging.
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Sunday January 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
In Lebanon on Saturday Hezbollah chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah met with Hamas head Khaled Mashal.
The meeting was reported on Al Manar, Hezbollah TV. The report described the meeting as focusing on the need for Hezbollah and Hamas to unite and work together.
According to the report and a formal statement released after the meeting, Hezbollah and Hamas jointly criticized the Arab world for showing weakness against the threats and arrogance of Israel and America.
The meeting signals a union between two groups that dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the reduction of US influence in the world.
Hezbollah and Hamas are partners in arms.
The most highly developed weapons in their arsenal are rockets and terror attacks.
The West must be as united as Hamas ans Hezbollah are - it is the only way we will defeat them.
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Friday January 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
China is pulling back on their commitment to join an international movement to keep check on Iran's nuclear development.
Remember, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have been meeting to deal with Iran attempting to diplomatically craft a fair and safe solution to Iran's nuclear aspirations.
China just announced that they will be attending the next meeting of the group, BUT, they will be sending only an extremely low level diplomat.
China is deliberately sabotaging United States and Western attempts to force Iran to give up their nukes - or at least to create some resolution.
The US and the other Western nations will pressure China to send a more senior person, but in truth, they are powerless on this issue.
There is no way that China can be convinced to join with the rest of the world's leaders.
No way.
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Thursday January 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
It is the classic disconnect.
The Palestinians insist that there is no al Qaeda presence among them.
For the past two years Israel has heard just the opposite.
Ansar al Sunna, an al Qaeda group in Gaza, just recently claimed responsibility for a Qassam rocket shot from Gaza toward Israel.
Because of the nature of these poorly designed rockets, it landed short of Israel and landed instead in Palestinian controlled Gaza.
The lesson here is clear.
Al Qaeda is operating in the Palestinian area.
They are well organized, they are well armed and most importantly, they are well funded.
They are gaining supporters and adherents by leaching from the Palestinian movements Hamas and Fatah.
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Tuesday January 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The White House just announced that National Security Director James Jones will be making a trip to the Middle East.
Jones, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Presidential Special Envoy George Mitchell will be making this trip together.
The pressure is on.
General Jones is no stranger to the region. He was military attache at the US embassy in Tel Aviv and served as military point man for the peace process for several years. Jones' military insight was regularly referred to and even sought after for years. Now he is the man with the office right next to the president. After Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod James Jones is the most influential person in the White House.
Jones has been enormously critical of Israel in the past.
He has also been characterized as having a very realistic approach to life.
Obama is sending a messenger to the region by sending Jones o this trip.
This is not a fact finding tour or a diplomatic trip.
Obama is laying down the line.
This is a roll Jones feels very comfortable filling.
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Monday January 11, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The German journal Der Spiegel reported that Hezbollah is funding terror by selling drugs in Europe.
It's a case of: "I told you so."
For years Israel has been telling European and United States leaders and counter terror analysts that terrorists were selling drugs in order to fund terror activities and maintain their organizations throughout the world.
Germany arrested two people in Frankfurt with money that was coated with cocaine.
The drug dealers were sending money back to Lebanon and from there it was sent directly to Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah.
We are talking about millions of dollars a year.
The money is going directly into Hezbollah operations from Lebanon to South America.
Similar schemes are in being run in the United States.
Terror organizations are making tens of millions of dollars each year smuggling cigarettes from states with lower taxes in the south to higher tax areas in the north.
Terrorists will always find a way.
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Saturday January 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
I watched George Mitchell on Charlie Rose the other night.
I thought I heard Mitchell talk about sanctions against Israel in order to move them out of their deadlock with the Palestinians, I assumed I was dreaming.
I looked up the transcript - I wasn't dreaming.
Here is the exact quote:
"The reality is that, yes, of course the United States has both carrots and sticks, you have to be very careful about how and when you use them and apply [inaudible]--...Under American law, the United States can withhold support on loan guarantees to Israel."
Later on in the transcript Mitchell talks about how George W. Bush held back loans until Israeli policy came into line with US expectations.
Mitchell is not simply a former judge and a former senator.
Mitchell is the current Special Envoy of the President of the United States to the Middle East.
Withholding loan guarantees is tantamount to instituting sanctions.
I do not see the United States instituting a policy of sanctions against Israel at a time when Israel's intel on terror and Israel's military are the only real weight the United States has as leverage against Iran.
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Friday January 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The obvious is often stated as if it has some deep profound impact.
Case in point: Yesterday Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that an attack on Iran may lead to unintended consequences that may destabilize the region.
His comments were clear and left little room for interpretation: ... "I think that the outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome ... on the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome."
The US has made a very important strategic move.
The most public soldier in the United States was chosen to announce just how dangerous it would be for Israel to attack Iran.
There is no doubt that Israeli is developing plans to strike Iran.
There is no doubt that the United States wants to discourage Israel from attacking.
There is also no doubt that the United States also wants to signal Iran that Israel is readying for attack.
The United States is telling Iran to come back to the negotiating table.
The clock is ticking.
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Wednesday January 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Naval division, Admiral Morteza Saffari, is quoted on a Iranian news website saying that Iran will be conducting maneuvers in the Straits of Harmuz. This is no small feat.
The Straits of Harmuz is a narrow pass of water through which about one third of the world's oil passes.
Iran claims to control the Straits.
International law considers the area international waters.
Iran excels at running little blue rubber boats that swarm around military ships and capture them. This offensive technique has proven to be an effective weapon against Western ships and Western military in the Straits.
The Iranians are prepared for a crackdown and increased sanctions.
The Iranians are signaling that they are in control and that they will not be intimidated.
The Iranians are doing the intimidating.
The Iranians are flexing their muscles.
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Tuesday January 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Cuba is furious.
Cuba is calling the new US policy to pat down and search both the hand luggage and the shipped luggage of all people flying to the US from 14 countries - including Cuba, anti-terrorism paranoia.
Four of the countries on the list of 14 are sponsors of terror.
The other 10 countries are places from which many terrorists have originated - including countries friendly to the United States, like Saudi Arabia.
The Cubans may call it paranoia, but the new US policy is anything but paranoid.
This is one of the best policies to date to combat terror and to secure our planes.
This marks the first time that the US has moved towards behavior profiling, the first time that the US is looking at background and not just checking every seventh person regardless of the threat.
Better late than never.
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Monday January 4, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that the US administration is exerting serious pressure on Palestinian leadership, especially on Mahmoud Abbas.
The US is pressuring the Palestinians to return to the negotiating table with Israel.
For several months I have sensed that the US administration was applying pressure to the Palestinians and that they were slowly, incrementally, increasing the pressure.
The United States views this pressure as part of a larger, regional move.
The United States is rewarding Egypt with an entire slew of new weapons.
In return, with the expectation of reaping even more benefits, the Egyptians have been doing the bidding of the United States in the region.
Abbas is in Egypt, he arrived on Saturday and is staying for several days of meetings.
The Egyptians are pushing Abbas to go back to the table, Abbas is resisting.
It's a Middle East version of the game push me - pull me, orchestrated by the United States.
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Sunday January 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday the Associated Press reported that the Taliban of Pakistan took responsibility for the suicide bomber attack that killed seven CIA operatives.
The Taliban claim that the 8th CIA death was the suicide bomber.
They say he was someone whom they had turned into a double agent/assassin.
The Taliban are probably telling the truth.
Running locals as CIA agents is a double edged sword.
On one side they are your eyes and ears on the outside.
On the other side they have the ability to get close to you and your highest level operatives in the field.
What is essential here is that the Pakistani Taliban also have links to al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda is the nerve center of many Islamic terror networks.
We must never forget that.
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Saturday January 2, 2010
I've been Thinking:
If it were a short story, you would call it fiction.
Four ultra-Orthodox Jews from New York and Canada are spending Shabbat in Gaza - as guests of Hamas.
The four, long bearded men, all dressed in traditional black garb, crossed into Gaza via the Egyptian controlled border. From there they were escorted by their hosts to Gaza City where they have been provided with a proper ultra-Orthodox Shabbat setting, including meals and prayers. In Gaza they will be meeting the leaders of Hamas and will be entertained as honored guests.
The men are members of Neturei Karta, a group that rejects Israel's statehood. Rabbi Dovid Weiss is one of the members of this chosen group. Upon arrival in Gaza Rabbi Weiss said: "It's crucial that the people of Gaza understand the terrible tragedy here is not in the name of Judaism."
This is the same group of people that went to Teheran and participated in the
anti - Holocaust conference sponsored by Ahmadinejad.
No one really knows how many people are members of Neturei Karta ... more than 100 but less than 10,000.
Neturei Karta is not a group of crazies, but it is a very dangerous group.
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Friday January 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
It's a new year.
Greetings are sent around the world - from friend to friend, from business contact to business contact, and even from Soccer Federation to Soccer Federation.
Israel's Soccer Federation received a special greeting this year.
It came from the Iranians.
Not sure if it was a joke or for real, Israel sent back a New Year greeting to the Iranians.
A correspondent for Israel Army Radio called Mohammad Ali Ardebili, the information director of the Iranian Soccer Federation, and speaking in Persian, asked if it was a mistake or deliberate.
Mohammad Ali Ardebili said: "It is a greeting sent to every country in the world."
Then he asked: "Are you talking from Israel? I can't speak with you. It's a mistake, it's a mistake."
Then he hung up.
Happy New Year.
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Wednesday December 30, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
So much happening in Iran it is almost impossible to track the goings-on.
The internal crisis, the popular rallies that have turned into riots running rampage throughout the country are only part of the story.
Iranians have been killed, arrested and many - including members of the opposition, have been placed under house arrest preventing them for attending the rallies.
All the while the theocratic dictatorship has continued to not only build nuclear facilities which they flaunt in the face of the world but now, as reported by the AP late last night, they are smuggling in "yellow cake", nuclear materials from problematic nations - nations willing to do business with Iran.
Intelligence suggests that the Iranians are actively smuggling all kinds of nuclear materials to aid in the production of a serious facility.
The Iranian objective is simple - do an end around the international community and achieve nuclear independence without international supervision.
And that last part is the truly scary part.
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Tuesday December 29, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Each day we learn more about the failed terror attack of December 25th.
President Obama broke the silence and serenity of his Hawaiian vacation yesterday to assure Americans that his administration was keeping us safe. He assured us that all those responsible for the deed would be caught and brought to justice.
This is my first entry on the topic of the attempted terror attack.
It comes in response to President Obama's first comment on the matter.
Vacation or no vacation, it took the president of the United States too long to weigh in on what was intended to be a deadly terrorist stack aimed at Americans.
The failed attack led the news on all networks and was the focal point on newspapers and websites for days.
Everyone was asking the obvious questions - were we safe, were the people who are supposed to keep us safe doing everything they can and is that enough?
The President should have spoken out on Christmas day.
I do not blame him, for this blunder, I blame his handlers.
This was a colossal political mistake.
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Sunday December 27, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
In Gaza today a siren sounded and for a moment everyone stood silent and still, there were memorial services and gatherings.
Today marked the one year anniversary of Operation Cast Lead, the 22 day operation during which Israel entered Gaza.
Ismail Haniyah, head of Hamas in Gaza, released a statement to the press praising the bravery of the people of Gaza and extolling them for repelling the Israelis. He spoke of the significant and damaging blows they delivered to the Israeli military thwarting Israel's goals.
The press statement read:
"The Strip won because of its durability and the Zionist enemy's failure to implement the objectives it set for itself during the war. The resistance continued in its path and forced the enemy to retreat without giving up on even one of its principles and its right to bear arms and defend the Palestinian people."
The successes and failures of Operation Cast Lead are still open to interpretation. But to assume that Hamas emerged victorious is stretching all fact and credulity ... unless, of course, you view the fact that Gaza is still standing as a victory.
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Saturday December 26, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Putting it simply, it looks like Hamas has rejected the deal that would release Gilad Shalit.
In actuality, the situation is a bit more complicated.
The proposal has been going back and forth and back and forth again and again.
Most recently, Israel sent back a proposal back to Hamas further refining the deal. In Israel's new version, seven Palestinians prisoners including Marwan Barghouti and Ahmed Sadaat would not be freed.
Hamas rejected Israel's counter proposal based on two issues. The seven prisoners who would not be freed and the large number of prisoners that Israel wanted exiled as part of the deal. A Hamas source is quoted as saying that it "was not a prisoner release deal but an exile deal."
This was expected.
Over the past three years deals about Shalit have been modified, modified again and then fallen apart - always because the modifications have been acceptable to the other side.
Israel tried very hard to accept the deal as it was presented this time, but the release of these particular seven people was too difficult for Israeli leaders and the Israeli public to accept.
These seven prisoners in question are young, hardcore, terrorist leaders.
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Friday December 25, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Some serious political ploys have been at play in Israel recently.
This week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu offered Tzipi Livni, head of the opposition, a partnership - Netanyahu asked Livni to join forces by joining the government.
If Livni and her Kadima party were to join his government, Netanyahu would be able to broaden and stabilize his government and discard his radical right flank.
The problem with this plan for Livni is that there is an internal conflict within Kadima right now.
Livni is fighting to protect her position as party leader - number two in the party, Shaul Mofaz, is making a move to take over.
Netanyahu has another agenda.
By bringing Kadima into his coalition, Netanyahu can split Kadima into two, destroying their ability to garner votes in the next election.
Let us not forget that in the last national election Kadima won more votes than Netanyahu's Likud party.
It's about maintaining power or destroying power, it's what makes politics go 'round.
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Thursday December 24, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran announced that they are preparing to launch a new satellite into outer space.
They are asserting that they have a new generation of satellites with far more sophisticated technology.
The Iranian Defense Minister made the announcement yesterday. He told the world that Iran will be launching their newest satellite an the end of February beginning of March 2010, just two to three months from now.
The significance of this announcement is enormous for several reasons.
The most important reason is that satellites are used for intelligence gathering.
Another is that the mechanism that launches a satellite is exactly the same technology that is needed to send a non-conventional weapon careening toward Israel.
Iran is unquestionably a nation in space.
From space, the Iranians can watch and attack any country they choose.
And that threat is even greater than the Iraian nuclear threat.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Tuesday December 22, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The John Demjanjuk trial restarted in Germany yesterday.
This will probably be the last Nazi war trial for Germany, it may even be the last Nazi war trial in the history of the world.
I was expecting a very serious and well prepared defense.
I am disappointed.
On the first day of the trial Demjanjuk's defense attorney, Ulrich Busch, spouted that kapos were worse than Nazis. Kapos were prisoners who were forced to be guards in the camps. Busch actually asked: "Is it not true that the Jewish police were worse than the Nazis?"
The prosecution and the judge demanded a source for this ridiculous claim.
Busch's response was: "If you Google it, you'll find it."
The behavior of Demjanjuk's defense attorney should really not be a surprise.
During the trial opening, he suggested that Demjanjuk was a Holocaust survivor.
Hollywood could not have come up with an opening like that.
Whatever else happens in this case, I am now certain that Busch will push the envelope. He will challenge every fundamental historical and moral boundary.
The victims - and history, deserve better.
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Monday December 21, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday famous sign at the entrance to Auschwitz, the sign that read "Arbeit Macht Frei" was stolen.
Three days later, on Monday morning, it was found and five people were arrested.
The sign was found in northern Poland, the other end of the country from Auschwitz. The fifteen foot sign had been cut into three pieces - each piece was one word long: Arbeit, Macht and Frei. "Work Will Set You Free."
Poland had declared a national emergency and dedicated almost everything they had to finding the sign.
The world was shocked.
This sign marking the entrance to the worst of all the Nazi murder factories had become a symbol.
It was a symbol of evil.
It was a symbol of how the world stood still as millions of innocent Jews were marched to their deaths.
Last week the leaders of Poland joined by leaders from around the world stood up and demanded the sign be found.
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Sunday December 20, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The situation is tense between Iraq and Iran.
On Friday, Iranian forces crossed over the Iraqi border and took control of an oil facility and pumping station.
The eleven Iranian troops hoisted an Iranian flag at the oil field and stationed themselves in a defensive position awaiting an Iraqi response.
This field has been disputed.
Until now it was on the Iraqi side of the border.
Iran seems to want to change that status quo.
This is an important trial balloon for Iran.
Crossing a border and raising a flag is a very significant statement.
The objective is two-fold:
# 1: to test how the United States will respond to this aggressive act
# 2: to test how local Iraqi leadership will respond to this incursion
What happens in the next few days will be an important predictor of Iran's future actions.
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Saturday December 19, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
General David Petraeus, the general in charge of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, delivered a tremendous blow to Iran yesterday while in Bahrain.
Petraeus was at a conference speaking about the issues of the region.
He concluded that the United Arab Emirates air-force could destroy the Iranian air-force.
Petraeus said that "[t]he Emirati Air Force itself could take out the entire Iranian Air Force, I believe, given that it's got ... somewhere around 70 Block 60 F-16 fighters, which are better than the US F-16 fighters."
This is a damning blow to Iran's ego and image in the region.
The UAE, a little collection of sheikdoms, has a better armed and more sophisticated air-force than the great Persian fighters.
The Iranians sputter and bluster about their great air-force, but now it seems that it is all just hype.
The essential germ of Petraeus' comments is that the Iranian air-force is dangerous and will certainly hit some of their targets - but they are beatable, especially against a better trained, better equipped air-force.
Petraeus was not pointing out the greatness of the UAE, he was using them as a source for comparison with Israel.
The general made his point.
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December 18, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The United States and the United Arab Emirates signed an important agreement yesterday.
The agreement will enable GE- Hitachi Energy to provide nuclear energy to the UAE.
The agreement, aka, The 123 Agreement, allows GE to create an atomic energy plant for the purpose of making electricity.
The agreement is totally transparent and there is no chance that the plant will be converted into a nuclear power plant to be used for nuclear weapons.
The US is delighted and is hoping that their agreement will serve as the model for the region enabling nuclear energy for electricity in a responsible and safe environment with transparency and supervision.
The obvious parallel is Iran.
Iran does not believe in transparency.
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Thursday December 17, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Trying to influence Iranian policy on nuclear development is nearly impossible.
One measure would be trying to introduce more sanctions. But that requires international support, especially from China and China is proving to be very difficult and is not joining the team.
The United States is using Israel as leverage. It was just reported that on his trip to China President Obama told Chinese President Hu Jianto that Israel was chomping at the bit to attack Iran and that the United States could not hold them back indefinitely.
The US thought that China had received their message and would agree that sanctions and international pressure were the best ways to keep Israel from attacking, but the US was wrong.
China has declined a US-Saudi deal that would isolate Iran much more significantly than any other international action.
The deal would substitute Saudi oil for Iranian oil and Saudi Arabia would supply China with all the oil it gets from Iran at significantly lower costs.
China does not want to save the money or to isolate Iran.
China wants to maximize its own leverage over Iran.
That is not good.
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Monday December 14, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A Hamas delegation, headed by the Khaled Mashaal the undisputed leader of Hamas, is being hosted in Iran.
Hamas is in Iran to get unconditional support from the Iranians for their cause. They are getting that and much more.
The message of support has come through loud and clear in press reports and press conferences.
According to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "the government and the people of Iran will always stand by the Palestinian resistance and the Palestinian people."
He went even further: "today Palestine is symbol of the global front of freedom-seekers and militants."
Hamas will continue their fight until there is no more Israel.
Iran will support that fight by supporting Hamas until the Zionist entity is totally annihilated.
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Sunday December 13, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Things are changing in Iran in unexpected ways.
This past week anti-government student protesters burned pictures of their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.
This is unheard of in Iran.
Never have protesters, or anyone at all, burnt pictures of the Supreme Leader.
In the Iranian way of understanding theology the Supreme Leader is answerable to Allah and exclusively to Allah - not to any other force or power and certainly not to student protesters. Burning pictures of the Supreme Leader is also a serious violation of Iranian law.
In response to these protests the powerful religious leadership of Iran held two days of rallies in support of the Grand Ayatollah. The supporters numbered in the tens of thousands.
This new student protest touched a very sensitive cord.
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Saturday December 12, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It looks like the US has finally started to challenge Iran's free reign in Latin America. For one full year now Iran has been cultivating and investing in Latin America, courting and developing diplomatic relationships.
At last, yesterday, at a State Department briefing on Latin American relations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lambasted Latin American leaders for allowing themselves to be courted by Iran.
The Secretary of State said: "We can only say that is a really bad idea for the countries involved."
Clinton put forth a very compelling argument.
She said: "This is the major supporter, promoter and exporter of terrorism in the world today." "If people want to flirt with Iran, they should take a look at what the consequences might well be for them. And we hope that they will think twice."
Unfortunately, Latin American countries think otherwise.
Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador have concluded that the US has little to no influence over them or even in the region.
The power house players in Latin America that Iran has targeted for improved relations are happy with their new diplomatic amigos.
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Friday December 11, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Tonight, across the world, Jews will light the first Hanukah candle. When we think of Hanukah, we most often focus on the crucible of oil and the miracle. Not to diminish the miracle of light, that is only a small part of the story.
Hanukah was a battle for religious freedom against the religious intolerance of the Syrian Greeks.
The war waged by the Macabees was truly fought with swords and arrows, but it was more than a military operation, it was a war of culture and media. It was a conflict between a small religiously observant enclave and pagan masses. This clash of culture was without a doubt one of the most dramatic in Jewish history.
It was a conflict of tradition versus modern society that split families and pit family members against each other. What tipped the scale for the Macabees were the laws that were passed forbidding all Jewish observance and the absolute rejection by the Syrian Greeks of any type of religious Jewish life.
To the Syrian Greeks it was all a game, they were convinced that they defeated the few Jews because they were more modern. In the end it was the Syrian Greek culture and reign that fell. It fell because the culture and spirit of the Macabees was not simply encased in a building the Greeks desecrated but in behaviors and teachings handed down from generation to generation.
Some things cannot be taken away, not even by edict, intimidation or terror.
The Syrian Greeks learned that lesson the hard way.
Happy Holiday.
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Thursday December 10, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's Defense Minister Ahmed Vahidi was in Syria, while there, he held several press conferences.
Iran is keeping thee rhetoric at high pitch.
In response to one set of questions about Iran's ability to fend off an Israeli air strike Vahidi gave some very insightful responses.
He said that if attacked by Israel "The Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces are fully prepared."
According to Syrian press reports he continued and said that If attacked by Israel, Iran would immediately respond and attack Israel's atomic sights.
He said that they would strike the "dirty weapons and other unconventional nuclear centers."
He said that "The Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces are fully prepared"
Iran has spent the past few months analyzing the various moves Israel might pursue to stop them.
Iran has begun to investigate its own possible responses to Israel's potential responses.
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Wednesday December 9, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Osama bin Laden.
Capture him or kill him - that is the question.
People are frustrated.
So many years later and the United States has still not found bin Laden.
Now, as the new Afghan policy takes hold, people are wondering if he will ever be found.
Yesterday General McChrystal went on the record again saying that we cannot defeat al Qaeda if we don't find bin Laden.
I disagree.
Bin Laden is no longer essential to al Qaeda. Capturing him or killing him will be a huge moral victory for the US and an enormous morale booster, but it will not defeat al Qaeda.
Bin Laden created an organization, a network, that reproduces on its own and that can and will flourish on its own.
Osama bin Laden is only a symbol - an important symbol, but just a symbol.
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Tuesday December 8, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
There are some serious obstacles to be over come in the Gilad Shalit negotiations. Some of the information that is bouncing around is totally without merit, some seems very plausible.
One bit of info was gleaned form court papers presented to the Israeli Supreme Court. In the Government's response to a challenge concerning the prisoner exchange the court listed a definitive number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails slated for release as part of the deal. That number is 950.
Israel still has some serious issues to resolve regarding the prisoners:
For example: 125 prisoners originally from Gaza want to make certain that once they are released and deported they are not deported back to Gaza.
For example: there are prisoners who lived in Israel prior to their arrests and were imprisoned before the Oslo Accords were signed and so technically, they should not be part of the deal at all.
Of those 20 are Israeli Arabs, 1 is from the Golan Heights and 44 are from East Jerusalem.
Israel does not want these released prisoners/terrorists wandering around Israel freely and planning and perpetrating more terror attacks.
Not to be forgotten or minimized is the release of Marwan Barghouti, the biggest of all the big wig prisoners slated for release in this deal.
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Monday December 7, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
An S5K rocket was launched from Gaza and landed in Kibbutz Alumim yesterday.
This is the first time an S5K has been known to be in Gaza and the first time one has been shot into Israel.
This S5K rocket has a much larger explosive charge than the Qassam, but it is also much less accurate.
The S5K is a Russian made rocket and was originally designed to be launched from an airplane. Recently it has been used against the United States and other Western forces by terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan who shoot the S5K from the ground in order to hit targets on the ground.
The terrifying new reality is that despite concerted efforts by Israel and Egypt this new Russian rocket has made its way to Gaza .
We now have confirmation that Hamas has been successful in smuggling weapons into Gaza.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday December 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is sending a message directly to Switzerland.
Iran is displeased over the recently passed Swiss referendum outlawing minarets.
The Iranian foreign Minster has gone public with his phone conversation with the Swiss foreign minister. He was quoted in IRNA, the Iranian official news agency, saying that the Swiss vote was "against the prestige of a country which claims to be an advocate of democracy and human rights."
The chief Iranian diplomat said last week's referendum would "damage Switzerland's image as a pioneer of respecting human rights among Muslims' public opinion." He said: "Values such as tolerance, dialogue and respecting others' religions should never be put to referendum."
The entire Muslim world is up in arms about the vote, but only the Iranians have made their statements public. This is the beginning of a serious tension between Islam and the West.
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Saturday December 5, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
For those skeptical of US foreign policy in the Middle East, here is a diplomatic maneuver that should put things in perspective.
The Quartet is the driving force behind the Middle East peace process.
It is composed of Russia, the US, the EU and the UN.
The United States approached the other Quartet members and proposed that a statement of support be made concerning Israel's decision to halt settlement.
All agreed, but the drafts were left to each party to develop.
The original proposal came from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The person charged with getting everyone on board was David Hale, deputy to the President's Special Envoy, George Mitchell. Hale went to the parties with his own statement, but could not forge an agreement.
The problem is with two points that the US insists upon and that Russia will not sign off on.
# 1: that Israel is a Jewish State
# 2: that the final borders will be determined by the facts on the ground
The Russians will not budge.
Neither will the United States.
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Friday December 4, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Vatican and Russian are making peace.
For centuries there has been bad blood between the Vatican and the Russians.
Since 1990 relations between the two parties was so troubled that they had no ambassadorial exchange.
Now President Medvedev of Russia visited Rome and successfully hammered out a solution that will lift the diplomatic status to the level of ambassadors.
Under Communism, established religion was illegal.
Today there is serious competition for religious followers.
The Russian Orthodox Church has argued that Roman Catholics were poaching adherents and were proselytizing.
This is a battle over more than souls, it is a battle for money, too.
The Catholic Church has a lot of capital to invest in building, not only in chasing new believers.
Putin and Medvedev are looking towards the future.
Relations with the Vatican today will be brokered into a political tool for Russia to utilize at a later date in a power play.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Thursday December 3, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It looks like the elections in Iraq, scheduled for January 18, 2010, have been postponed.
Iraq is undergoing a serious election law crisis.
The United States is stunned.
The US did not expect a postponement, even though the Iraqi vice president who vetoed the new election law announced that he would be vetoing the election.
The election law dispute is all about who gets to vote.
Iraqi vice president Tariq al Hashemi is a Sunni and the Sunnis want to make certain that foreign or absentee ballots can be cast. There are a significant number of Sunni Iraqis living abroad and if they are given the vote Sunni representation will be clearly reflected.
The Presidential Council must unanimously approve the new law before it can be passed.
The Presidential Council consists of 2 vice presidents, one is Shiite, the other, Hashemi, is Sunni and the president of Iraq, Nuri el Maliki, who is a Kurd.
Iraq is at a stand still.
So is US policy which cannot move ahead until it is clear that the situation in Iraq is stable.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Wednesday December 2, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali, made a bold and categorical statement on Tuesday.
He said if the West "keeps on insisting on determining our nuclear policy, we will determine theirs."
Larijani is no stranger to this discussion, until a short while ago, he served as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator.
This comment requires careful analysis.
Larijani has no real power, but he is a senior adviser to both the President and the Supreme Leader.
Larijani is saying that Iran will entangle the West in a web.
Western nations will now spend a lot of time and energy analyzing every move Iran makes trying to make sense of this unveiled threat.
As it is the West has almost no idea what Iran does and why they do it.
This threat is probably very real.
It is a very effective Iranian tool against the West.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Monday November 30, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran just doesn't let up.
Just yesterday the Iranians announced that they are allocating $20 million to a new investigative office tasked with investigating human rights violations - US and British human rights violations.
There's more.
Also yesterday the Iranians announced that they are investing in 10 new uranium enrichment facilities scheduled to be built in the next two months.
Iran is taunting the West.
The Iranians want to show that they are in charge. They are taking advantage of the last few days of the tenure of IAEA director Al Baradei to make their point.
Iran considers world leaders and the UN powerless to exert pressure over them, Iran believes that no one can force them to change either their practice or their policy.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday November 29, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Dubai financial crisis illustrates an interesting contrast between Palestinian and Israeli financial worlds.
Israel is primarily unaffected by the meltdown, the Arab boycott made certain of that.
Many Israelis wanted to get involved with Dubai, there is even an unofficial trade office under the auspices of the Israeli Foreign Ministry in Dubai. But Dubai made it difficult - so despite the financial allure Israelis could not go it alone in Dubai. There were only a few exceptions who managed to work it all out and so, Israel will fell almost no repercussions from the crisis.
Palestinians were heavily involved in Dubai, most importantly, about 100,000 Palestinians worked in Dubai.
Most of those Palestinians worked as laborers in construction which has ground to a halt. Others were engineers involved in building. The next largest group of Palestinian workers was high tech computer developers, another field which has been decimated in the financial meltdown. The West Bank was heavily dependant on Dubai in another way, they depended on Palestinian workers in Dubai sending money back home to help support families and that has now disappeared.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday November 28, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has been very tight lipped about a potential deal will Hamas that would exchange kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit for Palestinian prisoners serving time in Israeli prisons.
The Arabic press has been much more open with information.
Much of the information from the Arabic press is not reliable. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate each piece of information and determine what is real and useful and what is fabricated and wishful.
If and when there is an exchange it will involve the release of 1150 prisoners.
It seems that there will be a three stage exchange.
The process will begin when Shalit is transferred to Egypt where he will be visited by his parents and medical professionals. At that point Israel will release 450 Palestinian prisoners.
After Shalit is returned to Israel the remaining prisoners will be released in two stages.
According to the Arab press reports Marwan Barghouti, head of the Tanzim, and Ahmed Sadat, the person responsible for the assassination Israeli Minister Ze'evi in his hotel room in Jerusalem, are on the list.
Two days ago the report was that the exchange was imminent.
Yesterday the report was that Hamas was slowing things down until after the Muslim holiday Id al Adha which concludes on Monday.
The situation is still very much up in the air.
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Friday November 27, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Arabic press is filled with stories about how Marwan Barghouti will be getting out of Israeli prison as part of an agreement with Hamas that will free kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Barghouti was convicted of murdering 5 people in terror attacks.
He was responsible for taking the lives of many, many othersin his position as head of the Tanzim.
The story was leaked to the Arabic press by Paletinians.
According to their reports the deal will take place next week after Monday - the Muslim holiday of Id al Adha.
If Barghouti gets out several things will happen:
On the upside:
There will be a huge groundswell of support for Barghouti as the leader of Fatah.
New energy will be injected into Palestinian leadership.
On the downside:
Barghouti embraces attacks against Israel and as leader he will encourage increased terror against Israel.
Barghouti wants a unity agreement with Hamas which will also increase terror.
Barghouti's major compromise is accepting Israel within the '67 borders.
He will compromise on nothing less.
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Thursday November 26, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Marwan Barghouti, the terrorist cum Palestinian leader now serving time in an Israeli prison, is expected to be released in a prison exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas.
Barghouti gave an interview to an Italian news agency yesterday and declared that kidnapping Israeli soldiers is an important tool in getting Israel to take you seriously.
He also announced that as soon as a unity agreement between Hamas and Fatah was in place he would declare his candidacy for president of the Palestinian Authority.
Barghouti is a very shrewd and capable leader. However, despite the fears of many Israelis and the hopes of many Palestinians it is not clear that Barghouti will actually be on the exchange list.
What is clear is that Barghouti is still a major player in the Palestinian world.
It is also clear that Barghouti is by far the most popular Palestinian leader - even while in prison.
And it is clear that Marwan Barghouti has never stopped advocating terror as a tool to force Israel's hand.
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Tuesday November 24, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt just reported that a truck containing 1 ton of explosive and bomb making material was discovered on their border with Gaza.
The driver and a passenger in the truck fled when they saw the army.
The police confiscated the explosives.
It all took place near Rafah on the Egyptian side of the border. Rafah is a split city - part in Gaza and part in Egypt. An active and very lucrative smuggling business moves things from one side of Rafah to the other.
No commodities are more in demand and more fungible than explosives and weapons.
Capturing this explosive material was a huge victory for the good guys.
Kudos to Egypt, they are doing a splendid job.
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Monday November 23, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
SNS is the Syrian News Service.
SNS is an official mouthpiece of Syrian dictator cum President Bashar Assad.
On Sunday Assad made it clear that the only way peace negotiations with Israel will begin is for Israel to agree to one crucial precondition - the entire Golan Heights must be returned to Syrian.
Assad called it "unacceptable" not to expect that all land will be returned to Syria from the outset.
Assad said "This is where talks begin from. The result of the talks is peace; if you want peace then the result will be peace."
Most interesting is the contrast between this announcement and last week's announcement in Paris. Last week Assad said that he was ready to begin peace talks with Israel anytime, anywhere without preconditions.
No one in Syria will ever ask Assad about the contradiction.
Our only hope is that diplomats will seriously challenge the Syrian president.
Before the process can proceed, Assad needs to clarify his position on preconditions and peace.
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Sunday November 22, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran began five days of war games today.
The purpose of these maneuvers is to show the world that Iranians can and will protect and defend their nuclear sites.
Iran is also sending a message to Israel hoping to prevent a preemptive strike.
Influential Iranian religious leader Motaba Zalnur told Iranian TV that: "If the enemy should want to test its bad luck in Iran, before the dust from its missiles settles in this country, Iran's ballistic missiles would land in the heart of Tel Aviv."
Iran is worried.
The Russians have not yet delivered their promised S-330 anti-aircraft batteries. If the S-300's do not arrive Iran's defense will be severely reduced.
These games will try to show Iran's strength - but like with all war games, they may also show Iran's limitations.
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Saturday November 21, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The quote defining insanity as "repeating the same thing over and over expecting a different result" has been attributed to Kipling, Einstein and Ben Franklin.
Western foreign policy toward Iran is, I think, the best modern day way to prove the truth of that definition.
The Iranians have not fulfilled their obligations.
The permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are now considering ratcheting up restrictions and various sanctions on Iran.
From the outset Iran knew that they were just buying time while the West, under the leadership of the United States, was just postponing actions against Iran.
11 months later and Iran is closer and closer to their goal of achieving the status of a nuclear technological nation.
The West was not strictly insane - the West was deluded.
Western nations believed their own rhetoric, not what history had shown.
Delusions can be a type of insanity.
These delusions are dangerous, they have endangered the world.
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Friday November 20, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The internet is the wave of the future, that's not new - but it is also a litmus test for freedom of communication and freedom of education.
Those who fear the internet fear liberty.
Those who try to control the internet fear information.
The internet is an essential tool for spreading knowledge and information.
It teaches entire societies.
So how is the internet fairing in Palestinian areas?
In Gaza and the West Bank only 15% of people have access to the internet, 30% percent have computers.
By comparison, 20% of Egypt and 60% of Jordan have internet access.
Fatah has its own web handle called PS.
PS stands for Palestine.
Hamas has its own address.
PS.GOV which is shorthand for Palestinian government.
Hamas is trying hard to censor and suppress information on the internet.
They are filtering all items connected to any religion other than Islam.
They are censoring anything to do with sex and politics - anything other than their own Islamic style of government.
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Thursday November 19, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas is offering $1.4 million to anyone who kidnaps an Israeli soldier.
The message came in an email blast sent out by a "Charity" called the Waad.
The Waad called on Arabs living in Israel to kidnap Israeli soldiers, any Israeli soldiers.
The Waad group is affiliated with Hamas.
They are a ruling group in Gaza.
The director is Hamas' Minister of Interior, Fati Hamad.
One of the greatest tools in the Hamas arsenal is the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
Hamas knows that the life of a single young soldier is worth at least one hundred, perhaps even upwards of a thousand, imprisoned terrorists.
This kidnap appeal fits perfectly into the Waad's mission statement.
Their stated mission is to support and aid Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
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Tuesday November 17, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Leading Saudi cleric Grand Mufti Abdul Aziz al-Alsheikh gave an important interview to the Saudi press.
The interview ran in the daily newspaper al-Watan.
In the interview the cleric had a long list of reasons to lay blame with Iran including the support of terrorists fighting against Saudi Arabia on the border with Yemen. He called it "collaboration of sin and aggression."
The Grand Mufti said, "We are right and they are wrong. They clearly must be fought. Saudi Arabia is the one defending itself and standing up against depraved aggression. We did not invade their land and no one infiltrated into it."
There is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Tensions continue to rise.
Iran's nuclear aspirations are just one of the many points of conflict.
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Monday November 16, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Former President Bill Clinton is on the lecture circuit.
Clinton is very popular and very expensive, he can be very entertaining.
Audiences are enthralled by him, they hear him speak and believe that they are privy to insight from the past and shown glimpses of the future.
Clinton most recently spoke at the Saban Center in Israel.
Haim Saban, founder of the Center, is the man who created transformers.
At the Saban Center Clinton declared that Iran is not the problem, nuclear development is the problem.
He said it with a serious, straight face.
Well thank you, Mr. Clinton, but the real problem is Iran's nuclear development.
The kind of syllogism that Clinton is creating is an insult to the region.
Saudis and Egyptians know the distinction here.
Israel's nuclear capability doesn't worry them - the region is worried only by Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Earn your honorarium, Mr. Clinton.
Tell the truth.
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Sunday November 15, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday Iran announced that they were setting up an anti-internet squad.
They are targeting "liars ... spreading bad information."
That is code for bloggers.
Iran wants to shut down cyber communication.
Accomplishing their task will be a gargantuan task, nearly impossible to achieve.
The reality is that Iran's objective in setting up this police division has less to do with catching people than frightening people so that they do not use the internet and do not blog.
Hardcore activist internet users are not going to stop.
But the masses will be wary, they will be scared into thinking that the police will come knocking at their doors.
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Saturday November 14, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The cone of silence that had been imposed on last week's meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has finally been lifted.
Information has finally been leaked out.
It seems that this entire episode was about the White house teaching Israel a lesson.
The White confirmed the meeting so late that Netanyahu was already on the plane on his way to DC before the nod was given.
The White House did not care for the fact that the meeting was scheduled according to Netanyahu's timetable.
No photos were permitted and no press conference was given.
The interviews that Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak had scheduled had to be cancelled.
The most telling of all the details, the one that shows how the White House carefully choreographed this meeting in order to take Netanyahu down a notch is in the way the leaders arrived at the meeting.
Israel's PM and DM were brought to the White House in a nice black van - not by way of the presidential motorcade that has become de rigeur for these meetings.
Junior staff is usually relegated to the vans.
Before the meeting it was reported in the Israeli press that Netanyahu could exert pressure on Obama.
The White House disagreed.
The entire affair was an insult to Israel.
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Friday November 13, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It has been 5 years since Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died.
In commemoration, thousands of Palestinians gathered in Ramallah at the Mukatah, the spot that was Arafat's nerve center.
Arafat ruled with an iron fist, he controlled and dispensed funds as if it was his personal cash because, you see, it really was.
Arafat kept it all for himself.
The fifth anniversary of Arafat's death coincides with the decision by the current Palestinian president, Arafat's successor Mahmoud Abbas, not to run for re-election in January.
This decision by Abbas will probably destroy the Fatah party, the movement that Arafat created.
What irony.
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Thursday November 12, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave a very interesting speech in Turkey.
Ahmadinejad said that he wants to be the friend of the United States, but ...
It's a big "but."
But ... the United States has to make a choice - be friends with Iran or be friends with Israel.
The US must make the choice.
Ahmadinejad said that Iran will gladly extend a hand to the United States, but not if the US continues to have an extra special relationship with Israel. Of course he never called Israel by name.
Iran's neighbors are very upset with the statement.
Not because they are defending the special relationship between Israel and the United States, but ...
But ... because they do not want a special relationship between Iran and the United States.
How will the United States respond?
That is the key question now.
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Wednesday November 11, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinian Authority is in crisis.
If Hamas wins the January election, Fatah will effectively self-implode.
The PA is floating a trial balloon.
The PA is asking the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State according to the pre 1967 borders.
The PA is calling a US bluff. If the US vetoes the resolution, the Palestinian Authority PR campaign will proclaim that the US is not in favor of a two-state solution.
The reality is that the PA will not declare a state because they have not yet received the endorsement of the United States.
The Palestinians will convince themselves that they have leverage ... and the US may be swayed by the Palestinian threat.
If the Palestinians bolt and move and to announce their state without US sponsorship it will be because their ultimate objective is to maintain power by challenging US authority.
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Monday November 9, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday morning I read a transcript of a TV interview with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.
It was like reading a sitcom skit.
Ahmadinejad said that the West was not afraid that Iran might be attaining nuclear weapons.
He said Iranian nuclear weapons were not the issue at all for Western nations.
He said that the issue that frightens the West is that Iran is becoming energy independent.
WOW.
Iranian hierarchy sometimes disseminates disinformation to the Iranian masses. There is a reason for that and we can understand it. But this is so far from reality it is hard to fathom why Ahmadinejad would spin this tale.
The West along with the Middle East region is petrified of Iranian nuclear aspirations.
About the claim of energy independence, that would be a dream come true for the West.
If only everyone would become oil independent, that would mean that the entire region would be left with almost no international, diplomatic or economic leverage. If that were to happen, Iran would be a country like Micronesia - a country most people have never heard of it.
Ahmadinejad - that joke would be on you.
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Sunday November 8, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
There has been much speculation about the Ft. Hood shooter, Nidal Malik Hassan.
Some elements are simple fact.
He was a medical doctor and trained psychiatrist. He was a major in the US Army and the Army paid for his education. He was born in America but his family is Palestinian from the village of al Bira.
But the most telling element in the life of Nidal Malik Hassn is the mosque in which he prayed in Northern, VA.
He prayed at Dar al Hijrah in Great Falls, VA. He prayed there during the same period that two of the 9/11 bombers, Nawaf al-Hamzi and Hani Hanjour, prayed there. And he prayed there at the same time of day as they prayed there.
The Imam of the Dar al Hijrah mosque, Anwar al Awlaki, preached violent and extreme ideas. The Sunday Times of London describes this Yemini born Imam as a man who supports attacks on British troops and supports terror attacks.
The Times of London quotes a fellow Muslim officer describing how the Ft. Hood shooter talked with deep respect about the radical Imam's ideas and how his eyes would light up. The FBI is investigating these connections.
This is not a simple coincidence.
The Ft. Hood shooter was not part of the 9/11 gang, but he was clearly and heavily influenced by the same factors and teachers as the men who perpetrated the worst terror attack against the United States.
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Saturday November 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It was assumed.
Now it is official.
At least for now.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has informed the election committee that he will not submit his name as a candidate in the upcoming January election.
Abbas went on to say that his announcement was neither a publicity stunt nor a political maneuver.
Abbas has said this all before.
If Abbas resigns there is little chance that Fatah will be able to fend off Hamas' total sweep of the Palestinian elections.
If Abbas pulls out Hamas will easily win the presidency as well as the prime ministry.
Fatah's failure in the election will be rightfully blamed on Abbas.
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Friday November 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has intercepted an enormous arms shipment.
The arms were en route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Hamas in Gaza.
This was the largest arms cache ever stopped by Israel on its way to terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza.
As I looked down the list of the weapons captured by the Israeli Navy and as I watched video of the cases and cases of weapons being taken off the captured boat in Israel - I was shocked. I saw two types of rockets, the 122 mm rocket and the 107 mm Katyusha.
These are very common weapons in the Hamas Hezbollah arsenal.
According to military intelligence reports in Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas already have a significant supply of these rockets.
If this is true, why were the Iranians shipping these weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas?
The answer is that Iran is using every means - air and sea - to deliver weapons to Lebanon and Gaza. And they are undoubtedly successful.
This particular sea shipment was intercepted but it is abundantly clear that many others got through.
And they and will continue to get through.
Hamas and Hezbollah weapon stores are growing larger and larger and more and more quickly.
That should frighten all of us.
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Wednesday November 4, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
I have been poring over reports by Israel's Chief of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin.
Yadlin made it very clear that Syria and Iran have provided Hamas with a rocket that has a 60 kilometer (48 mile) range - a rocket that can hit downtown Tel Aviv.
Yadlin reports that Hamas test fired this ordinance into the Mediterranean Sea.
He paints a picture of Syria that has them working on two completely different tracks.
Track one is warming and expanding relationships with the West.
Track two is arming Hezbollah and Hamas.
He describes Iran's Qom nuclear site as definitely NOT scientific, but built for the purposes of public energy. He said that in Qom there are advanced centrifuges whose purpose was to speed uranium enrichment.
Yadlin made it clear that Israel's enemies are becoming stronger and more sophisticated.
Yadlin made it clear that the threat to Israel is increasing.
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Tuesday November 3, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Hajj is about to begin.
The Hajj is an annual pilgrimage to Mecca to visit the Kabbah, the holiest site in Islam.
The Kabbah is located in Saudi Arabia and is kept under very strict security.
The Hajj takes place from the 7th to the 13th day of the 12th month of the Islamic calendar, the month is called the Dhu al Hijja.
It is a reenactment of the story of Ibrahim and Hajar, also known as Abraham and Hagar.
It is from Hagar that the word Hajj is derived and a pilgrim is called a Hajji, someone who is participating in the Hajj.
Iranians are beginning to set out for Mecca.
As they prepare to depart the Supreme leader of Iran has given them a message. Actually, it is more of a warning.
The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said: "display the firm resolve of the Muslim nation to confront attempts that damage its unity and progress." In other words, confront the Sunni Leadership of Saudi Arabia.
In response, Saudi Arabia has issued a clear statement that they will strictly uphold security and that no politics will be permitted during this Hajj.
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Monday November 2, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Two very important news announcements came out of the Middle East yesterday.
Saudi Arabia announced that they discovered an al Qaeda arms cache containing hundreds of weapons and ammo - proof that al Qaeda is alive and well and planning attacks in Saudi Arabia.
Iran announced that president Ahmadinejad will be visiting Turkey next Sunday - a visit that comes on the heels of the Turkish leader's visit to Iran last week.
The deepening friendship between these two neighbors is deeply troubling not only to the West but also to many in the Arab world.
The warming of diplomacy could have a tremendous impact on regional relations and will influence the ways in which the West exerts pressure on Iran down the line.
Turkey refused to give the US permission to launch or to fly over their airspace during the last Gulf War.
This could take the bite out of any diplomatic or military strike against Iran.
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Sunday November 1, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's "preliminary response," as it is being called by the IAEA in Geneva, is as creative a move as it is effective.
It pitches to Iranian strengths - biding for time and delaying action by the West.
The United States has yet to respond to the Iranian non-response response.
That's because the US cannot count on either Russia or China to help support new and stricter sanctions against Iran.
As a result, the US has no alternative but to push ahead with negotiations.
Iran knows that there is almost nothing that the West can do to stop their move to develop nuclear technology.
Iranian media is filled with statements about Iranian officials demanding the right to import uranium.
Once again, the West has been blindsides by Iran.
The West hopes that, eventually, Iran will capitulate and accept Western demands.
But that is highly unlikely.
In the meantime, Iran will continue to deftly rig the negotiations in their own favor.
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Thursday October 29, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will arrive in Israel on Saturday night.
On Sunday morning she will meet with Israeli leaders and then with Palestinian leaders.
George Mitchell, President Obama's special envoy, will arrive on Friday in advance of the secretary of state in order to test the winds and pave the way for Clinton who hopes to jumpstart negotiations.
Before coming to Israel Clinton will visit other countries in the region.
In Morocco she will meet with a group of Arab leaders and try to gauge exactly how disappointed and angry the Arab world is with the new US administration.
These leaders will be telling her about their frustrations with the US approach to Iran and with the softening attitude the United States has adopted towards Israeli settlement activity.
Prepare yourself Madam Secretary of State, you are in for a real tongue lashing.
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Wednesday October 28, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
On Tuesday the parliament of the tiny and very, very rich Gulf country Bahrain passed legislation making it illegal to engage in any interaction with Israel.
Any talking or any travel would be punished.
According to a member of Bahrain's parliament: "Whoever holds any communication or official talks with Israeli officials or travels to Israel will face a fine ... and/or a jail sentence of three to five years."
He further explained that this legislation was instituted in order to stop the normalization of ties with Israel: "The motivation is that steps are being taken by certain countries to allow certain talks to be held with Israeli officials. Israeli delegates have managed to participate in events in Arab countries with no treaties with Israel."
Bahrain passed this law even as the Obama administration is exerting pressure on Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel.
The parliament of Bahrain has no real power, but his move is indicative of the mood of the people - and the people of Bahrain resent that their leadership is leaning to the West.
In July, on the OPED page of the Washington Post, Bahrain's Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa explained how Arabs needed to reach out to Israelis directly.
And in that same month five Bahraini diplomats visited Israel.
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Tuesday October 27, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Anti Defamation League released the results of their newest survey of Americans yesterday.
The study is worthy of note.
57% of the respondents viewed an Israeli air strike against Iran in order to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons favorably.
This new set of numbers shows the continuation of a trend that supports an Israeli defensive strike against Iran.
The increasing threat by Iran is not the result of a media blitz or a political lobby.
The movement to support Israel is a natural outgrowth of Iran's taunting of the international community, it is a natural reaction to the strident arrogance of Iran.
It seems that Americans have the feeling that the United States will not act against Iran but that Israel must strike if threatened.
US leadership is beginning to look at that these results very carefully.
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Monday October 26, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian security forces announced yesterday that they discovered and destroyed two tunnels used for smuggling materials into Gaza.
The Egyptians have finally begun to take this situation very seriously.
They know that Hamas is acting against Egyptian national interests.
They know that Hamas is unpredictable.
They know that Hamas uses these tunnels as a way to strengthen their forces and their cause.
For a long time Egypt deliberately turned a blind eye to the smuggling and to the building of the tunnels. Israel would discover a tunnel and blow it up. A flume of smoke would explode out of the other end o f the tunnel on the Egyptian side. More than once that other end of the tunnel was in an Egyptian army camp.
Shutting down the tunnels puts pressure on Hamas.
It sends a message that says Egypt cannot be disrespected.
For a long time Egypt was naive about Hamas, assuming they were working in the best interests of the Palestinians.
Egypt now understands Hamas. Egpyt does not appreciate what Hamas is really up to.
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Sunday October 25, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A Saudi Arabian woman has been sentenced by a Saudi Arabian court to 60 lashes.
Rozanna al Yami is the first Saudi woman journalist ever to be sentenced.
Her crime is helping produce and advertise a movie that aired on the internet and on satellite TV in Lebanon.
The movie was about a man who discussed - with words only, sexual activity.
Al Yami was convicted of licensious behavior.
The Saudi man was sentenced to 5 years imprisonment and 1000 lashes.
In Islam, the person administering the lashes places a book under his arm in order to limit the range of motion and thereby lessening the pain of the lashes.
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Thursday October 22, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat is in Washington.
Erekat arrived on Tuesday and has been making the rounds in talks. He has met with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, National Security Adviser James Jones and Presidential Special Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell.
Erekat made Palestinian expectations vis a vis the Israelis crystal clear in an interview he gave the official Palestinian newspaper al-Ayam.
Erekat listed three items:
# 1: No more settlement activity of any kind
# 2: No interim agreements or short term resolutions - final status talks only
# 3: These talks must conclude with the establishment of a Palestinian State
Erekat did not use the catch phrase "preconditions for negotiations."
Instead he used the euphemism "explicit Israeli commitments that they must meet."
Given the White House's recent dropping of the term "precondition" regarding the freezing of settlements, it is difficult to gauge US reaction to these "demands."
In Middle East diplomacy there is often a public strong stance and a much more reasonable behind-closed-doors private stance.
In the end, it becomes a diplomatic balancing act.
We will see what happens here.
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Wednesday October 21, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Abbas wants Hamas to come under his control.
The Palestinian president announced that he will call for elections this week if Hamas does not sign the reconciliation agreement that Egypt has brokered between Fatah and Hamas. The elections would be held on January 24, 2010.
Abbas would be committing Palestinian political suicide to call for elections now.
# 1: The Egyptian agreement is more favorable to Hamas than to Fatah.
The agreement allows Hamas access and lends them respectability with the West Bank. It calls for communication and mutuality between the groups. The mutuality would be in the form of communication and police. It treats Hamas as partners in governance and policing.
# 2: An election will undoubtedly help Hamas more than Abbas.
Hamas already has a majority in the Parliament and has already earned the Prime Ministry even if Abbas did take it away from them after the Hamas/Fatah break-up. There is even a distinct possibility that Hamas would unseat Abbas as president.
# 3: If Abbas does hold elections and if Hamas chooses not to participate, that weakens Abbas even further. Abbas would be seen as president of the West Bank only.
Hamas is anti-democratic and it is unlikely that they will permit elections.
There is only one possible scenario in which Hamas would permit elections in Gaza - if they are convinced of a Hamas electoral sweep in both the West Bank and Gaza which would give them a majority in parliament plus the presidency.
And that just might happen.
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Tuesday October 20, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Mahmoud Abbas is dropping in popularity.
The drop is consistent.
He cannot bring his numbers up.
According to this week's JMCC survey of 1200 Palestinians, if a presidential election were to be held now, Abbas would not emerge the winner.
The election would be too close to call between Abbas and the Hamas candidate, Ismael Haniyah.
In the West Bank, Abbas's numbers have toppled to 12% from 18%.
Haniyah is at 14.2%.
The change in voting preference happened since JMCC’s last survey in June.
These results are extremely telling.
The rise of Hamas' popularity in the West Bank is a damning condemnation to Fatah and Abbas' leadership.
It makes sense in Gaza where Hamas is in charge, but when the West Bank sees the oppression of Hamas in Gaza and still prefers Hamas to Fatah that signals a serious synapse.
The only way to maintain Fatah power will be through force and Abbas does not have the personal character to apply military pressure to put Hamas back in its place.
We are witnessing the self destruction of Fatah and the rise of Hamas - all under Abbas' watch.
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Monday October 19, 2009
I'm Predicting:
Today on al Arabia, the most watched Arabic TV station in the World -with a viewership even larger than al Jazeera - the spokesman for Egypt's Foreign Ministry lambasted Hamas.
Hussam Zaki said that Egypt had successfully negotiated a deal between Fatah and Hamas that was to be signed last week - and now Hamas wants an extension.
Hamas is upset that Fatah did not immediately embrace the Goldstone Report and they are standing on that principle.
Egypt is quickly losing patience.
Egypt now realizes that reconciling Hamas and Fatah is nor in anyone’s best interest. Giving credit where credit is due, the United States was instrumental in bringing Egypt to that realization.
Egypt now realizes that Hamas is a serious liability and, even without Hamas' foot dragging, they will be drop the entire notion of a deal very soon.
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Sunday October 18, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Rumors that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is either dead or suffered a stroke and is in a coma have been circulating for about a week.
Iranian internet was going wild with the rumors.
Analysts had no idea of what to think.
This was not the first time rumors like this were sent out.
They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
On Saturday pictures of The Ayatollah, attending an event, were released to the media.
The internet is very useful in Iran - but the resources are irresponsible and unreliable.
This lesson about Iran's internet should have been hammered home during the election when much of the material released on the internet was so exaggerated it was better termed fiction.
Some lessons are never learned.
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Friday October 16, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Turkey arrested 32 al Qaeda terrorists in multiple, simultaneous, raids across the country yesterday. The word is that there were 8 raids all together - but there could very well have been more.
The terrorists were charged with a long list of crimes including planning to attack NATO, the United States and Israeli targets.
Some of the terrorists were also charged with participating in a series of terror attacks that rocked Turkey in 2003 - attacks on two Turkish synagogues, an HSBC bank and the British Consulate.
Seven people have already been tried for the 2003 terrorist attacks, but clearly, the net is very large and it seems that Turkey is actively pursuing more of these terrorists and hopes to bring them all to justice.
These raids and these arrests are vitally important.
It is important that we understand how very many al Qaeda terrorists are actively pursuing their agendas in Turkey.
It is important to know that Turkey is in hot pursuit, that Turkey is working hard to prevent future terror attacks.
Turkey deserves to be commended.
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Wednesday October 14, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A new alliance has been created in the Middle East.
The ramifications are important and almost no one is taking notice.
Syria and Turkey signed a series of agreements that will bring them much closer.
They agreed that they will no longer need visas to cross their mutual borders.
Syria and Turkey also announced a sophisticated set of joint military maneuvers.
And then Turkey cancelled long planned military maneuvers with Israel.
This alliance does not signal a sudden change.
Turkey has been slowly moving in this direction.
Turkey is seen as pro-Western with a very traditional Islamic bent.
Syria is one of the serious bad guys of the region.
The alliance between these two neighbors is anything but normal.
Syria is the big winner, Turkey gets the best neighbor award.
There is a hitch:
Syria does not have lasting relationships that do not involve terror and exploitation. Turkey is trying to build a real economy and create real relationships.
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October 13, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Algeria has been trying to buy arms from France for the past year.
The deal was almost complete, but it fell through at the last moment.
France refused to divulge the country of origin of all the components that went into the deal. Algeria wanted to make certain that no Israeli parts were in the systems they were buying. France would not bend. So the deal went sour.
The details of the deal were described in the Algerian paper el Khabar. A high level source in the Algerian Defense Ministry said that a contract of this sort is not new for Algeria. He said his country added the same clause when they were buying helicopters from Britain and buying battleships from Italy.
Algeria is the third largest military spender in the region when it comes to outfitting an army.
Algeria throws around a lot of money.
Algeria is boycotting Israel.
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Monday October 12, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a bold declaration on Iranian state TV yesterday. He warned the West that the Oct 19th meeting had better be productive and not be a Western ploy to institute more sanctions against Iran.
He said: "The October 19 meeting is a test for fruitful cooperation {with the West} in the future."
"Failure of the meeting and imposing sanctions on Iran would hurt the West more than Iran."
Iran is making it very clear that this is a serious game.
Iran is coming to discuss issues of world nuclear supervision and how important it is to widen the self-appointed policing group.
Iran wants to be part of the group.
Iran has no interest in taking responsibility or debating their rights to nuclear development.
It behooves the West to realize in advance of this meeting that Iran and the West see the situation very differently.
If the West misreads this opportunity, the possibility of a backlash is great.
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Sunday October 11, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Bloomberg News ran a spectacular piece explaining the investment risk of building smuggling tunnels in Gaza.
The tunnels are used to smuggle weapons, explosives, people and even livestock from Egypt into Gaza.
The Hamas government has promised 10% per month on investments. Remarkably, Hamas pays the dividends to investors - with only one exception.
If the tunnel is destroyed, Hamas does not pay.
That's a problem because Israel and Egypt have become very successful at destroying tunnels.
In response, Hamas has guaranteed 16.5% back if the tunnel is destroyed.
Pretty remarkable, right?
Well, not if you're an investor.
Investors are demanding all their money back if the tunnels are destroyed - they want a no risk investment.
According to the Bloomberg piece, 4000 people invested huge sums of money. One real estate broker named Sharub invested a half million dollars and now he wants it back.
As the saying goes, the greater the risk the greater the return.
But sometimes an investment is too good to be true.
In this case, investing in Hamas is a risk too good to be true.
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Saturday October 10, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt is in the midst of a major conflict between the modern world and the traditional world.
That's not just conjecture, it is the claim made by Ali Gomaa the Grand Mufti of Egypt in an OPED published in Thursday's Wall Street Journal.
And then Sheik Azhar Mohammed Sayyed Tantawi, one of the most important Sheiks of Egypt, has also issued a new Islamic law, a fatwa, that forbids female students in state schools from wearing the veil known in Arabic as a niqab.
It is all a direct response to the rise of the Taliban.
The Taliban are influencing the entire Islamic world.
That influence is most clearly seen in the niqab, the facial veil that is becoming more and more prominent on Arab streets.
When he entered a classroom the Grand Sheik noticed a girl wearing a niqab.
He shouted at her and said "Niqab has nothing to do with Islam. I know about religion better than you and your parents."
He spoke the truth.
There is no clear Muslim obligation to wear the niqab.
There is no real significant international Islamic leader who has called on women to wear them.
Wearing the veil is an outgrowth of the tribal period before Mohammed.
There is a real conflict in Egypt.
It is a manifestation of the conflict within Islam.
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Thursday October 8, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt has officially severed all ties with the Louvre in Paris.
The Louvre is one of the greatest museums in the world. It houses some of the greatest artifacts of Western civilization. Some of those artifacts were discovered in Egypt and then taken to Paris.
Egypt wants the artifacts back.
The museum pieces were never loaned to the Louvre, they were booty taken to bolster France's colonial empire. They were expropriated during a period in history when Empires established colonies around the world and then proceeded to exploit the citizens and the natural resources - including historical and archeological sites.
In Egypt, France expropriated great national treasures and brought them back for display in their world class museum, making it an even greater and more famous museum.
The Louvre has responded. The official response is that the museum not against returning the national treasures to Egypt, but there is a bureaucratic process to follow.
Egypt has ratcheted up the pressure.
They are getting nowhere going the bureaucratic route.
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Wednesday October 7, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Libya's representative in the United Nations has appealed to the Security Council to have a special meeting to discuss the Goldstone Report.
The request was made to the Vietnamese ambassador. Vietnam holds the rotating chair of the Security Council. Vietnam has confirmed that Libya made the request.
This is just the beginning.
Even though it has been rejected by the United States, Israel and the Palestinians the Goldstone Report has taken on a life of its own. Like so many other fact finding reports that are short on facts and heavy on slanted perspective, once they are part of the public record they are used and abused.
It does not matter what Abbas or Obama or Netanyahu think.
What does matter is how other countries - like Libya, embrace the Report and how they run with it, and then, how the US counters.
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Tuesday October 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
One of the ways to understand what is happening in the Middle East is to watch who is meeting whom in the Middle East.
This week Syria is the focus of my attention.
This week the King of Saudi Arabia will be visiting Syria.
This is the first visit by the Monarch since the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri in 2005. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria is responsible for much of what happens in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria interferes and foments internal strife in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia believes that the ultimate objective of Syria is empowering Shiites.
As far as Syria is concerned, Saudi Arabia can provide Syria the access they crave to get back into the mainstream Arab world.
As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, this visit will be an attempt to bring Syria closer to the Western way of thinking.
At the same time that the Saudi leader was invited to Syria, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was dis-invited by Syria. The Syrians gave no reason for dis-sing Abbas. But you can bet that the Palestinian leader was un-invited because Syria is angry that Abbas is no longer backing the Goldstone Report. Syria is a huge supporter of Hamas.
Syria is telegraphing their thoughts to the Arab world by way of their official invite list.
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Monday October 5, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinians have withdrawn their support for the Goldstone Report.
The Report, which condemned Israel in their recent battle against Hamas, clearly states that Israel acted outside the guidelines of international law.
So why did Mahmoud Abbas give the order to reject the report?
Palestinians are asking the same question and have established a committee to discuss the direction they should take in response.
The most important reason for Palestinian rejection of the Goldstone Report is pressure from the US, especially from Hillary Clinton.
The Americans have made it very clear that embracing the Report will make it very difficult to move forward with Israel. It will make it impossible for Israel to feel that they can defend themselves.
More than that, Fatah knows that Hamas is growing in strength - and beating down Hamas is an essential part of their future plan.
But there's a problem:
By withdrawing support for the Goldstone Report it appears as if Abbas has turned his back on Palestinians in Gaza. Palestinians on the street are asking if Abbas has sold his soul and his people to accommodate the United States which is simply defending the Israelis.
Israel is capable of weathering the storm, they do that all the time.
Abbas is now in an even more precarious position in terms of his popularity, and that could play directly into the hands of Hamas.
I am not certain that the US understood just how dramatic the counter response on the street would be to rejecting the Goldstone Report.
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Sunday October 4, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Much discussion and emphasis has been placed on rocket missile systems.
The Iranians tested them.
Hamas is using them.
Hezbollah is collecting them.
It is important to understand missile philosophy.
Missiles are a tool.
Missiles can cause damage and can terrorize.
But as a rule wars are not won and lost through missiles - with the obvious exception, of course, of the nuclear warhead.
Conventional wars are won through conventional means - soldiers, tanks, planes, helicopters, military saturation. For Western nations, missiles are a defensive weapon. Smart bombs, a type of missile, can also be a first strike weapon. Missiles can dismember important internal enemy organs but they do not win the war. That is the case no matter how accurate the missiles may be. There is no substitute for a conventional military presence - with the obvious exception of total obliteration.)
Missile use and missile testing are tools of intimidation.
Missiles and rockets are vehicles used by the weak and lazy to intimidate, to threaten and to bolster a message.
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Saturday October 3, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
This week the organization Palestinian Media Watch correctly concluded that Palestinian factions are so fractionalized and so plagued by internal fighting that only one thing universally unites them.
Kidnapping Israeli soldiers.
The huge array of Palestinian organizations have concluded that the best way to attack Israel and force her to compromise is to kidnap Israelis.
The kidnapping of Gilad Shalit is a perfect example.
Palestinian press - radio, print and tv, emphasis how enormous the role of kidnapping plays in their modus operandi. Even on Palestinian summer camps children are taught how to kidnap Israelis. After Israel released 19 Palestinian female prisoners in exchange for a video tape of Gilad Shalit, the Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah said that "this was a great victory for the kidnappers."
This is an essential issue to understand.
This shared realization shows that across the board Palestinians agree that they have discovered the soft underbelly of Israel.
Israel and the West must understand this, too.
Not because kidnapping is immoral or uncivilized, but because it is the method that will be employed.
And it is a method very difficult to prevent and defend against.
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Friday October 2, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The meeting between the 5 plus 1 and Iran ended without fireworks.
The group agreed to meet again.
The most important element to emerge from this meeting is that Iran got a better understanding that the West wants to talk - and not to use the military option.
Iran understands that there still exists the strong possibility of greater sanctions. Iran also believes that they can withstand these sanctions because the gasoline they so badly crave has already been promised by China and Venezuela.
Iran suggested the transfer of uranium to a third party for enrichment for their medical reactor at Teheran University. This was a suggestion originally put forth by George Bush.
In this discussion, Iran came out the great victor.
They spoke about world issues of nuclear development.
They emphasized how important it was for people to live up to international agreements.
They said that they have the right to develop nuclear technology.
The 6 retorted that that is exactly what they expected of Iran, and Iran said of course.
The head of the IAEA will visit Iran this weekend to see the newly publicized sites. The Iranians say they informed the IAEA about these new sites last year.
No party made any real headway.
But Iran achieved greater political advantage in the meeting because they were elevated to a party with standing. They were face to face equal footing with the United States and the West.
What we have here "is a failure to communicate."
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Wednesday September 30, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A New York Arab businessman, known as Abdul Tawala Ibn Ali Alishtari aka Michael Mixon, pled guilty to funneling over $150,000 to a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.
Alishtari also pled guilty to defrauding millions of dollars from investors in an investment scheme.
This is a great victory for the prosecution in the United States.
The United States has had difficulty convicting terrorists.
The best way to keep convictions coming is to make certain that the defendants confess.
Bravo.
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Monday September 28, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is snubbing its nose at the United States and at the West.
On Sunday Iran tested 3 short range missiles, today they test their long range Shabab-3.
The Shabab-3 has a 1250 mile range and can easily hit Israel.
The Shabab-3, tipped with a non-conventional weapon, will probably be Iran's weapon of choice when their nuclear development is complete.
Iran's short range missiles are important, too.
The Fatah Tandoor and the Zilzal fit into the Iranian arsenal and will become essential exports to Hezbollah and Hamas.
It is not accidental that Iran is conducting these tests and conducting them now.
Iran chose to test their missiles on Yom Kippur to inform Israel that their judgment day is near.
General Hussein Salami, head of Iran's air-force says that Iran will teach the West and Israel a lesson: "We are capable of supplying a devastating quick response to our enemy." He went on to say that Israel should get its own house in order, "it is best that the Zionist entity…deal with its own problems."
Iran is very serious.
Iran is sending another important message - we must pay attention and make certain that we interpret the Iranian message correctly.
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Sunday September 27, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Farouk Hosni really is evil.
Hosni is the Egyptian Minister of Culture who tried to become Director of UNESCO five times - and lost each time.
He is the man who wanted to burn all the Israeli books in Egypt.
He is the man who claimed to have repented and changed his ways.
The real Farouk Hosni has surfaced again.
In interviews with newspapers in Egypt and the United Arab Republic he is claiming that he lost because the Jews conspired against him and because of racism.
Hosni has announced that he is renewing his position against normalizing ties with Israel and embarking on a culture war against Israel. He wants Egypt to dwarf Israel in a war against Israeli tyranny and colonialism.
The world is very lucky that Farouk Hosni was not elected in last week's election.
Surprisingly, Israel removed its objections to Hosni, but many other human rights leaders in the West refused to drop their reservations against him.
Throughout the campaign Hosni apologized for his past and claimed to have grown and matured.
I was very skeptical.
Now we see that Farouk Hosni will always be true to his convictions.
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Saturday September 26, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad canceled a press conference at the UN on Friday. That is historic. Ahmadinejad never misses a chance to rail on the West and on the USA.
Ahmadinejad had a great opportunity to get on the front pages of newspapers around the world, and he chose not to.
That is historic
Ahmadinejad cancelled his press conference because he cannot speak without answering questions. And he did not want to be asked about Iran's newly publicized nuclear plants.
Ahmadinejad did comment on the nuclear plants in an interview with Time Magazine and in a statement he released. He said that they are not secret. That they informed the IAEA last year about them and the IAEA is invited to inspect them.
Ahmadinejad made two other interesting comments:
He said the US and France would regret their great insult - saying that Iran lied. He said that Iran does not have to answer to Obama.
These two comments are telling. Calling Ahmadinejad and by extension all of Iran deliberate fabricators of the truth is a huge insult. And assuming that all the countries in the world are little children who must answer to Obama is truly infantilizing.
It may be arrogance, but the United States is still the United States.
In order to play, you have to pay and in this case that means being accountable to the US.
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Friday September 25, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
An Iranian exile group headquartered in Paris has delivered critical information about Iran's nuclear technology.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) delivered a series of satellite pictures of two Iranian nuclear facilities to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
They even gave over the address of a research and development lab in Teheran that is working on key components of the nuclear trigger mechanism.
The IAEA has almost no Intel about what happens inside Iran.
This Iranian exile group is providing information about what Iran is truly doing behind closed doors.
This group and other exile groups have contacts inside Iran and even contacts working inside Iran's nuclear facilities.
Any information the IAEA gets will help point investigators in the right direction.
I hope that Iran does not shut down the lab.
I hope the IAEA gets in there fast enough to see what is happening.
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Thursday September 24, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It was called a speech, but it really was a diatribe.
Yesterday, Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi, in his address before the General Assembly of the United Nations delivered a diatribe against the West, specifically against the Untied States.
A verbatim repetition of Ghadaffi's speech would be monotonous and counter productive.
The only reason at all to analyze the speech is to shed light on the way the leader of Libya is thinking - to understand what goes on in that mind.
Ghadaffi suggested that the "Security Council" be renamed the "Terror Council." He said that the way the world works, everyone else is made to feel "second class."
Libya is buying into the message that Ahmadinejad and Chavez are spreading. The message is that the current balance of the world is out of balance.
The message is that the world needs a readjustment.
The readjustment would liberate the world from the oppression of the United States.
Ghadaffi repeatedly said that he wants to free the US of their responsibilities.
The truth is, Libya wants to assume more responsibility i.e., Ghadaffi wants to play a larger role in running the world
Libya wants to become a player together with Iran and Venezuela.
That is serious.
That cannot be allowed to happen.
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Wednesday September 23, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The United Nations is in the throes of the annual General Assembly.
There have been several terror threats made against the General Assembly. Homeland Security has extended the threat to public entertainment areas all across America.
The question is: Why would Muslim terrorists target the GA?
After all, the United Nations often gives voice to the sentiments and even to the political views of terrorists. All voices are heard in the GA, even those of Muammar Ghadaffi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Robert Mugabe.
The answer is: Terrorists do not care about those who defend them, they care that the GA also houses their enemies. At the GA, the Western world has the same voice as the thugocracies - and that upsets the terrorists. Terrorists do not want equal voices, they want world domination. To them, the United Nations is a symbol of how Islam bends over to accommodate other cultures of the world and that is unacceptable to the Islamic terrorist.
That is why terrorists target the UN and the GA.
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Tuesday September 22, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
We all know that Russia was tickled pink that the United States shelved its missile stations in Poland and Czech.
The level of understanding of most people covering the news and most people reading the news was so low, and in this case so warped, that people thought that the purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Russia.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Iran.
Now you won't be surprised to learn that yesterday, Iran who came out in support of scrapping the program.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi explained just how happy the Iranians are about the change in US missile tactics.
He said:
"The Islamic republic welcomes any action that serves to decrease arms races."
Iran just won another round.
For Iran, this was not a win by default - it was a total knockout.
And it was handed to them on a silver platter by the United States of America.
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Monday September 21, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Al Qaeda released two threatening video tapes over the weekend.
The first was released on Friday, the second video was released on Sunday.
Bother al Qaeda videos were in German.
The German government has confirmed the identity of the speaker and confirmed that the threat is real.
The speaker was a German /Moroccan named Bakkay Harack.
The videos lambaste the German government for deploying troops in Afghanistan.
They warn that Germany is in for a "rude awakening" if German troops are not evacuated from Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda is increasing their threats.
Al Qaeda is trying to intimidate Western countries into changing policy on Afghanistan and on Iraq.
Al Qaeda will attempt to strike at Germany but the Germans will hold their ground.
Germany understands that they are in Afghanistan for the very reason they are being threatened.
Germany understands how crucial it is to prevent al Qaeda from influencing and striking out against the West.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday September 20, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad will be in New York City for the UN General Assembly.
This year, the welcome given to the Iranian president will be even less warm than it was last year.
Iranians have invited numerous people to many events and almost everyone has declined their invitations. Even the Jews who attended last year's events are staying away. Not because of Ahmadinejad's attitude concerning Israel, because of his behavior following the June 12th election that re-elected him.
A dinner party on Thursday night was to be the main Ahmadinejad event.
Last year numerous academics and even Jewish leaders attended a similar event. Last year the attendees came claiming that is was important to speak even to people with whom you disagree. This year that argument cum rationale has fallen by the wayside.
Ahmadinejad will do an NBC interview.
He has received no university invitations from universities.
The Helmsley Hotel cancelled a dinner event that was to take place in their dining room.
This year it seems as if the American people, even if not the American government, are beginning to see Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for who he rally is.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday September 19, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian media is in a tizzy.
An Egyptian journalist met with the Israeli ambassador.
Newspapers and TV in Egypt are blasting Hala Mustafa, editor of Egypt's Democracy Magazine, for daring to officially meet with Ambassador Shalom Cohen of Israel.
What's the big deal?
An official meeting with the Israeli ambassador means formal recognition of Israel.
Hobnobbing at a cocktail party or passing each other at a movie premier, although it may be planned, is not "official" - a sit down in an office, that's official.
Don't the governments of Israel and Egypt have formal, even peaceful relations?
They do, but it has not yet trickled down to the level of the intelligentsia.
It is classic Egyptian political double messaging.
The Press Association has summoned Mustafa for a hearing because she violated a condition of membership, the "resolution that forbids normalizing ties with Israel."
You got it.
Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and yet, Egyptian press is forbidden from meeting with the Israeli Ambassador.
That's what you call peace in the Middle East.
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Friday September 18, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
President Obama has decided to cancel the Bush anti-Iranian missile program in Poland and the Czech Republic.
From the very beginning the Russians have been very upset by this US program.
Now the Russians are happier.
But here is something interesting:
On the same day that the US announced the cancellation of the missile program, the US announced that they would be acquiring the Arrow anti-missile system.
The Arrow is the jewel in Israel's crown of defensive weapons sold around the world.
It is the best short range anti-missile system in the world.
Why did the US decide to procure the Arrow?
To help defend its interests in Europe.
Obama seems to be redefining strategic threats.
The danger from Iran does not hinge on a long distance weapon as was thought by the Bush administration.
On this question, it seems that Obama might be on target.
No pun intended.
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Wednesday September 16, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Begging never works in diplomacy, especially Middle East diplomacy.
Begging never helps lure a leader over to your side.
The best diplomatic begging can do is to artificially trick the enemy into thinking that you are weaker than you are.
When former US President Bush begged the Saudi king to keep up the oil supply it served no good other than to show the Saudis how enslaved the United States was to Saudi oil.
Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu traveled to Russia last week to beg Putin and Medvedev not to go through with an arms deal to Iran that includes the sale of the S-300, an advanced surface to air missile.
The S-300 is a weapon that could seriously impede an Israeli strike against Iran.
Russia realizes the value of the S-300.
That is why they are selling it, and that is why Iran is buying it.
Inadvertently, Bibi delivered a message to Russia.
He showed Russia just how important those weapons are to the Iranians - and now the Russians may tag on a higher premium to Iran.
More importantly, the weapons' credibility has just been authenticated by the best possible evaluator.
Now Russia will deliver a message to Iran.
Russia will tell Iran just how effective the S-300 will be against an Israeli air strike.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Tuesday September 15, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Ali Treki stood up proudly and became the new President of the 64th United Nations General Assembly today.
The position of GA President rotates between the five major regions of the world.
Treki is a diplomat from Libya.
The new president takes over for Miguel d'Escoto Brockman a diplomat who had been the Sandinista Foreign Minister from Nicaragua in the 1980's. Brockman held that position during one of the worst periods of South American history. It was a period during which death squads assassinated countless citizens for daring to speak about challenging the Junta - even after the election.
Treki and Brockman are symbols for many Third World nations.
The UN gives voice to parts of the world that would not be heard from and that, honestly, should not be elevated to levels of power.
Like Nicaragua and Libya.
Libya just gave a hero's welcome to their arch terrorist, he of the Lockerbie bombing. The Libyan government even admitted that their own intelligence forces planned and executed the bombing.
It is bad enough that leaders of these nations are given the forum to address the General Assembly on an even footing with peace loving democratic societies.
It is even worse that leaders of these nations are appointed to positions of leadership and responsibility within the United Nations.
The United Nations is supposed to be the world body dedicated to the sanctity of life, human rights, freedom and justice.
This is what makes the United Nations General Assembly such a farce.
Not that these countries should not be represented ... but if their representatives are appointed to be leaders within the United Nations, they should be required to reflect and inspire the principles upon which the United Nations was founded.
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Monday September 14, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu paid a visit to Cairo and met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
Netanyahu intended to pay tribute to Mubarak for his role in trying to free Israeli hostage Gilad Shalit who is being held in Gaza by Hamas.
Mubarak took advantage of the moment to promote his role as leader of the Arab world.
He gave Netanyahu a set of moral lessons.
He spoke about the risks and explosiveness of what he called "Judaizing Jerusalem."
Mubarak's spokesman explained that the president of Egypt made it clear to the prime minister of Israel that the Arab world does not care about natural growth.
He made it clear that any Jewish building in Jerusalem is like playing a very dangerous game.
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Sunday September 13, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
In Lebanon today Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah, a leading Shiite religious leader, issued a religious ruling called a fatwa.
The fatwa forbids the normalization of ties with Israel.
"Islamic law forbids any normalization of ties with the Zionist enemy."
Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah holds no official government advisory position, but he is a well respected religious leader of the Shiite sect.
His rulings are read and followed throughout the Shiite world.
If this is the way Shiite Islam understands Islamic law, what chance is there for ever making peace?
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Saturday September 12, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
I have read all 5 pages of the Iranian proposal.
When the Iranians declared that they were preparing a proposal, I knew it would fall short of any serious dialogue on the issues.
Unfortunately, I was not disappointed.
At best, it is a joke.
Iran does not see that there is a problem.
Not once in the 5 pages does Iran speak about itself and its nuclear technology.
The ridiculously rambling document spews forth on issues of justice and freedom and condemns the empires that promote a double standard in the world.
The Iranians go so far as to volunteer to be part of a dialogue to rectify these injustices.
The document is called "Cooperation for Peace, Justice and Progress."
The document begins with the words "in the Name of the Almighty."
The second paragraph reads, "Resolution of these problems and creating a world filled with spirituality, friendship. Prosperity, wellness and security requires reorganization and creating an opportunity for broad and collective participation in the management of the world."
The proposal goes on and on about reorganizing the world, in other words, about ousting the United States and removing all traces of Western orientation.
Not one word about Iranian nukes.
This proposal is what is considered a non-starter.
Iran knew what was expected of them, made their own calculation and chose to solve the problem by saying that the problem is not with them but with US domination of the world.
How quintessentially Iran.
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Friday September 11, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Eight years ago the world changed.
Eight years ago civilization was transformed.
We must not forget what we learned on September 11, 2001:
There are people who want to destroy the United States.
They want to destroy us because of what we represent.
We represent freedom and democracy and success.
We must not forget what we have learned since September 11, 2001:
There is a growing movement of terrorists who have no home port-of-call.
They train and organize all around the world.
Their targets are chosen from all around the world.
They are unyielding in their hatred of us and of the values we hold dear.
We must be vigilant.
We must learn more.
We must do our best to protect ourselves and our friends.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Thursday September 10, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
OPEC president Jose Botelho do Vasoncelos delivered his economic forecast at the OPEC meeting in Vienna yesterday.
He said that he was "optimistic that the darkest days of financial turmoil and economic recession are behind us."
The 12 OPEC members control most of the world's oil production.
The economic downturn hit them very hard.
OPEC's prognosis is an essential dimension of economic analysis.
OPEC needs a stronger economy in order to charge more for oil.
OPEC understands that the worse the economy gets, the more people conserve energy & the more people conserve, the less the demand and the lower the price of oil.
I would never wish OPEC well.
But I do hope that this prediction is correct.
I hope that the economy has bottomed out.
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Tuesday September 8, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Last week Egypt arrested 13 people and charged them with promoting Islam - promoting Shiite Islam.
Egypt is a Sunni country.
Egyptian law prohibits promoting Shiite Islam because Egypt sees Shiite Islam as a threat to their very existence.
It is legal to be Jewish and to have Jewish schools in Egypt, but it is illegal to teach Shiite Islam.
This is a critical element in understanding the nature of internal Islamic rifts that inform the very fabric of Muslim society.
Shiites and Sunnis are sworn religious enemies. They might both be Islamic, but their differences are so dramatic and their internal wars so vicious that they make external difference look minor. The core of Shiite Islam is Iran and that is intolerable in the eyes of Egypt.
The West labors under an almost complete lack of understanding of Islamic societies and neatly groups everyone under one umbrella - Muslim.
Unless the West opens its eyes to the nuances within Islam, we will never understand the inner workings and critical components that make that world tick.
In Egypt, Shiites are not welcome.
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Monday September 7, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
On Sunday Iranian State TV announced that Iran was developing a new advanced weapons system.
The system is designed to intercept missiles mid-air.
It is an anti-cruise missile system.
This announcement may not be the absolute truth.
Iran has been known to exaggerate when it comes to weapons and advanced technology.
As tensions with the West continue to mount Iran is relying more and more on information and disinformation.
Iran wants to make certain that Israel and the US think twice before striking.
Believe me, these messages are evaluated very carefully to see if there is any real substance to them and if there is, to determine how far along the development and testing process Iran has come.
An anti-cruise missile system coupled with the newest anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems that Iran is getting from Russia means that Iran would be very well insulated from attack.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday September 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt just canceled his diplomatic visit to Israel which had been scheduled for September 11th.
There has been a tremendous amount of diplomatic tension between Sweden and Israel over the past few weeks.
On two separate occasions a Swedish newspaper printed reports that Israeli soldiers harvest Palestinian organs for transplant.
The Swedish government has refused to distance itself from the articles which have never once offered any corroborating evidence.
The paper reported rumors and stories and Swedish leadership is choosing to hide behind the veil of freedom of the press, saying they do not interfere with the press.
Israel responded by saying that they did not ask the Swedish government to interfere. They are asking the Swedes to comment on the ridiculousness of the charges and the unprofessional journalistic approach that never even researched the material.
That is why the Swedish foreign minister canceled his trip to Israel
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Saturday September 5, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
There has been very little speculation across the Arab world about why the United Arab Emirates fired and exiled hundreds of Palestinians.
The story has been barely covered.
To fill the void, Hamas released a statement saying that the UAE expelled the Palestinians because they were considered a security risk.
Hamas responded to their own statement saying that is was a farce and unfair accusation.
And still, the mass exile has received almost no coverage.
The real reason for the exile is difficult to unearth.
The UAE has released no comment.
But we know that the Palestinians working in the UAE were highly trained, well paid, skilled works. If even one worker was thought to be affiliated with or showing affinity for Hamas the likelihood is that they would all be fired and expelled.
The UAE is totally,100%, against Islamic extremism.
The UAE considers Hamas to be an extremist Islamic group that will not be tolerated in their regime.
The internal Arab fight against extremism is real and serious.
I hope the West takes this situation seriously, I hope the White House takes this situation seriously.
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Friday September 4, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A very disturbing report was published in a Kuwaiti newspaper yesterday.
The paper cited foreign intelligence sources in describing an accidental bomb explosion that took place in Lebanon on July 14 and killed 8 people. The paper reported that the explosion took place in a chemical bomb depot.
The paper, al Sayasseh, is generally well connected and has a good record on these issues. According to the intelligence sources Hezbollah refused to permit the Lebanese army into the area and kept the UNIFIL forces far way for 24 hours. The sources assert that this was done to give them time to remove all evidence of the chemicals.
The same source was quoted as having informed several European Union governments that Hezbollah has constructed chemical storage facilities to house weapons that they have imported from Iran, via airlift, to Syria.
If this is true, and it all seems very credible, danger in the region has increased exponentially.
Hezbollah is more volatile than Iran.
Chemical weapons in the hands of Hezbollah are a new catastrophic reality.
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Thursday September 3, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A report about a Russian ship, en route to Iran and carrying weapons that suddenly disappeared, began circulating several weeks ago.
Originally, it was thought that the ship was hijacked by pirates but no crew and no ship and no cargo was found.
The ship just fell of the radar.
Then the thinking shifted and the theory was that the Israelis captured the ship in a way that only Israeli commandos can do.
Even Time Magazine alluded to this theory.
One Russian leader publicly berated an EU official who blamed Israel.
The condemnation was not diplomatic, it was pragmatic - he was saying keep your mouth shut because you do not know what is really happening.
Well, the mystery is over.
The ship has been found.
Turns out the Russians staged the entire affair as soon as they discovered that weapons were on the ship. They framed Israel and thought the entire episode was over. But an anonymous tip led investigators to find the ship and now all the pieces are coming into position.
That's international diplomacy, Russian style.
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Tuesday September 1, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
For a few days now there have been reports that a three way summit between United States, Israeli and Palestinian leaders will take place during the United Nations General Assembly.
The report was confirmed by Israeli President Shimon Peres in a Fox news interview.
There is a serious chasm between the three parties right now.
Mitchell and the Obama administration agreed that continued building in East Jerusalem on existing projects was okay.
Palestinian President Abbas says no way and no talks until all building stops. The entire Arab world is up-in-arms about the Jerusalem exemption.
Obama has his hands full.
Israel went into the Mitchell meeting saying that they agree to a 9 month moratorium on settlement building in the West Bank. But Israel asked to finish 2400 units in East Jerusalem. That sounded reasonable to the Obama administration so they agreed - after all, Israel agreed to stop all other building.
Washington is beginning to understand how nuanced the Middle East is.
It doesn't matter how things are viewed in DC.
What is considered reasonable in DC is very often not at all reasonable in the Middle East.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Monday August 31, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
It happened several weeks ago.
It was only reported about on Friday in a British newspaper.
It should not have been kept secret.
What is it?
What happened?
The United Arab Emirates, an Arab Gulf oil producing conglomerate of states, stopped and confiscated a ship carrying North Korean weapons en route to Iran.
This is a clear indication of what Iran is doing.
This is a clear indication of how North Korea is helping Iran.
This is also a clear violation of the international sanctions against Iran - sanctions that specifically forbid other countries from providing weapons, any kind of weapons, to Iran.
But as you probably guessed Iran does not care about international sanctions and neither does North Korea.
What is essential is that from this information we must assume if one ship was intercepted there have been many more that successfully slipped through. Who knows the kinds of North Korean weapons that Iran has imported via the vast sea?
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday August 30, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The Obama Administration is continuing its efforts to close Guantanamo. Closing a prison in Cuba specifically deigned to hold terrorists who threaten the United States is no easy task.
The most pressing issue is: where do you put the prisoners?
How about Portugal?
This weekend two Syrian prisoners were transferred to Portugal.
Portugal stepped forward and said that they had no problem receiving the Syrians.
How did Portugal become a haven for Syrian prisoners in a US military prison? The prisoners pleaded and begged not to be sent to back to Syria. They argued that they feared arrest and torture at the hands of the Syrian regime if they were returned to Damascus. So US authorities found a Portuguese alternative.
So far, the Guantanamo prisoner relocation plan has not proven effective.
Many of the prisoners, who were never tried or convicted, were sent back to their native homelands. Upon arrival they were transformed into local heroes and catapulted back into leadership positions in terror networks.
That's what happened in Yemen and in Afghanistan.
Is depositing Syrians in Portugal a better solution?
We will soon see.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday August 29, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Khaled Mashaal was just permitted to return to Jordan for the first time in ten years.
It will be his first return trip since being expelled.
The King of Jordan, King Abdullah, permitted Mashaal a temporary visit on humanitarian grounds.
Mashaal's father died in Amman at the age of 91.
We are seeing a very interesting component of Arabic society.
In Arab society it is possible for sworn enemies, like Hamas and the Royal Family of Jordan, to look the other way for reasons of mutual gain.
Let's examine what is happening.
On one hand:
Jordan gains tremendously by this act of kindness from Hamas followers in Jordan and on the West Bank.
The King has raised his currency and can now speak for the Arabs from a broader, more panoramic, perspective.
On the other hand:
This act of kindness is very risky for the King.
Mashaal could inject a huge sense of energy into Jordan's Hamas affiliates. Arabic death rituals include a mourning tent where masses come to pay tribute and Mashaal will hold court like a veritable king ... King of Hamas.
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Friday August 28, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The US has accepted Israel's appeal to remove East Jerusalem from the building freeze.
On Wednesday, while in London, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu met with US Presidential Envoy George Mitchell. Netanyahu agreed to a 9 month moratorium on all building of any kind in the West Bank. He was adamant, however, about 2500 units in East Jerusalem that need to be finished. Mitchell accepted the counter proposal.
This was a huge success for Netanyahu.
It was a tremendous concession from the United States.
The US has always considered East Jerusalem to be exactly the same as the West Bank.
There seems to be real progress on the US/Israel front.
US/Palestinian and Israeli/Palestinian issues are another story.
The Palestinians are up in arms about the Netanyahu/Mitchell compromise.
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Thursday August 27, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Here is an out-of-the-ordinary example of very clear, very honest, rhetoric that came from Iran yesterday.
The Supreme Leader the Great Ayatollah Khamenei gave a public address in which he said that there was no evidence that foreigners or foreign government agents or governments played any role in the unrest that rocked Iran after the June 12th elections.
The Supreme Leader also said that it appears that the rallies and protests had been organized in advance and even the political candidates probably did not know about them until they happened.
The Supreme Leader is probably correct on all counts.
Despite the xenophobic rhetoric that was espoused in the aftermath of the election, it was obvious that nearly everything that happened was domestically produced.
It was obvious that the rally attendees were prepped and just waiting for the election to happen so that they could perform their roles.
The winner in this election came as no surprise, everyone knew who the winner would be.
The rallies were organized as a tool to embarrass the regime in the international arena.
The organizers were very effective - they made their point.
As I explained before, during and after the election - the objective of the rallies was not to topple the government just to embarrass the government.
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Tuesday August 25, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
For years, one of the central criticisms leveled against Palestinian statehood is that there is no infrastructure within the PA - that they are neither investing in nor planning for an infrastructure.
They get money earmarked for infrastructure, but never put it towards an infrastructure.
Without an infrastructure there is no possibility of having an efficient state.
Yesterday, disputed Palestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayyad, a bureaucrat through and through, put forth a 65 page document proposing a Palestinian infrastructure.
The details are pretty sketchy, but for the first time, at least there is a proposal.
Fayyad advocates building transportation systems that link Palestinian areas to neighbors. He suggests stimulating foreign investment and creating a stable economy.
Fayyad is a former assistant director of the World Bank. He has a PhD from the University of Texas. He is not well liked by Hamas and is particularly despised by Fatah leaders who see him as an outsider. But at least he has an idea.
65 pages is just a sketch ... but it is a start.
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Monday August 24, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
From Monday through Thursday Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will exchange his politician's hat for his diplomat's hat.
His mission will be to convince several world leader's that the Palestinians are not ready, willing or able to commit to peace right now.
Monday: In London, Netanyahu meets with Britain's ten most influential newspaper editors.
Tuesday: Netanyahu meets with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Wednesday: Netanyahu meets with US presidential envoy George Mitchell.
Thursday: In Berlin, Netanyahu meets with German Prime Minister Angela Merkel. Thursday night, he arrives back home.
The leaders Netanyahu will be meeting are neither anti-Israeli nor pro-Palestinian. They are just blind to the limitations of the Palestinians as state builders.
Netanyahu will need every skill he honed as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations. He will have to be both charming yet forceful. He will be waging an uphill battle on hostile playing fields.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday August 23, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The month long fast of Ramadan starts today in most parts of the Muslim world.
Muslims fast during the day, they eat at night and each night is a celebration. The month is dedicated to introspection and repentance.
To celebrate Ramadan, Hamas in Gaza has decided to transfer $100 of aid to all 78,000 registered employed and unemployed workers who live in Gaza. They will also transfer $50 worth of goods in the form of a food package.
Given the dire straits one would think that the leadership in Gaza would be more involved in distributing aid.
Unemployment in Gaza has reached 50%.
The assistance amounts to only about $12 million dollars.
Hamas receives significant international aid packages and they have smuggled in mega millions, but this will be the first time that Hamas is undertaking a serious program to distribute aid to the people of Gaza.
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Saturday August 22, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The new nominee for defense minister in Iran is Ahmad Vahidi.
That should not come as a surprise.
Vahidi is wanted in Argentina for the 1994 terrorist bombings that killed over 100 people in massive explosions at the Jewish Community Center (JCC).
Vahidi commanded the Quds Force which was part of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for terrorist activities abroad.
Vahidi helped Hezbollah perpetrate the attacks against the JCC.
There is no reason to assume that this nomination, the choice of Ahmadinejad, will not go through.
The Vahidi nomination is another example of how Iran enjoys strutting their feathers.
Iranian leadership knows who Vahidi is and they know what the Western world thinks about him. But they don't care.
Iran wants to appoint a man who is know to have successfully sponsored attacks against the West.
Iran is saying "in your face" to the West.
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Friday August 21,2009
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday.
The meeting was brought to the public's attention on the web site of the Russian foreign ministry.
Clinton and Lavrov spoke about Iran and the potential threat of Iran's nuclear technology.
As a result of the conversation, five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany will gather on September 2nd to discuss Iran and the Iranian nuclear threat. That, too, was announced on the Russian web site.
After the Russian website posted the announcement the German Chancellor said that they are gearing up to pressure Iran by adding more significant sanctions.
The Obama Administration is giving Iran until the opening of the UN General Assembly which takes place at the end of September to accept and toe the line.
Iran has begun to feel the heat of international pressure.
Yesterday the Iranians permitted United Nations inspectors entry into some atomic energy sites.
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Thursday August 20, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
The head of the Palestinian Authority just visited Sudan.
He was treated like royalty and he returned the favor.
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, announced that he supports the Slaughter of Sudan aka Omar Al Bashir aka President for Life.
Al Bashir has been indicted by the World Court for mass murder and crimes against humanity.
Al Bashir is singly responsible for the massacres in Darfur, he is probably responsible for the deaths of 400, 000 and the displacement of 1.5 million.
Why is Abbas even in Sudan no less cuddling up to Al Bashir?
This visit raises all the wrong questions about the agenda of the Palestinian leader. He need not visit and he need lend support, he could just be silent.
Most of the Arab and Muslim world has stood silent about Darfur.
Now the Palestinian leader has embraced the leader of Sudan, a member of the illustrious group that includes Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
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Tuesday August 18, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Now that the US and Egypt have begun their summit in Washington DC the United States can pressure the Palestinians and the Israelis to begin their dialogue. At least, that's the word from State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley who made the announcement at the conclusion of an hour long meeting between Hillary Clinton and Hosni Mubarak.
To quote Crowley: "We're trying to work hard to create conditions for negotiation to continue and we hope to have this phase of this process completed in the next few weeks."
Now that is a pretty optimistic timetable.
The Palestinians have said they will not come to the table unless there is a total stoppage of building.
The Israelis believe that a total stop to building is unrealistic.
Mubarak threw another monkey wrench into the equation today.
Mubarak said that The Arab world will only make its gesture of recognizing Israel or of even warming relations towards Israel after a final peace treaty is signed.
That will not go over well in Jerusalem and it was hard for Washington to hear.
There was serious expectation that Arab relations towards Israel would be thawing. That thaw would be presented to Israel as a way to urge them on to make real concessions towards the Palestinians.
That whole scenario looks very unlikely right now.
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Monday August 17, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is in Washington, DC.
This is Mubarak's third face to face with Obama, but it his first trip to the White House trip in five years.
The agenda is obvious and the issues are big.
Throughout the week Mubarak will meet with senior Obama people.
On Tuesday he is scheduled to meet with the president.
He is also supposed to meet with the leaders of 8 Jewish organizations in what is being termed a closed door session.
Mubarak has been in power since 1981, he is 81 years old.
He is a gifted, charming, politician and an exceptional international diplomat.
Mubarak understands that he has something to offer and he wants things in return. He is working hard and making sure that everyone knows he is the lynchpin of the Middle East - working hard for regional stability and working hard to diminish if not quite extinguish Islamic extremism and terror.
Mubarak wants to continue to get his $28 billion in US financial humanitarian and military aid. Most importantly he does not want that aid linked to the liberalization of his autocratic dictatorial regime.
Mubarak knows how to play the game.
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Sunday August 16, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is undergoing change.
It is our job to monitor those changes carefully.
Today is the last of three trials of people arrested for post-election violence.
Over one hundred people have already been tried in the first two trials.
Twenty five people stand in the docket today.
One of those people is a Jew.
The man, 19 year old Yaghoghil Shaolian, is quoted by his lawyer as saying that he is neither a member of a group nor did he participate in the protest movement. He does admit to throwing stones at a bank.
There are about 25,000 Jews who still live in Iran.
In 2000 there was a show trial of 13 Jews accused of being Israeli agents.
Today’s events have the potential to explode into a series of other charges orchestrated to publicly rally Iranians.
The Iranian government wants to channel the ire of the public away from the government and give it a new focus.
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Saturday August 15, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday was a truly historic day in Iran.
Yesterday, a letter was sent to the Assembly of Experts by several (it is not known how many and who they are) former parliamentarians asking for an investigation of The Supreme Leader and his role in the elections and in the torture of protestors while they were in prison.
The letter asked that The Supreme Leader be removed from office.
The Supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts which is composed of 86 Mujtahids, or great religious scholars. In theory, the Assembly may remove The Supreme Leader - as they did once in 1985 during Ayatollah Khomeini's lifetime. At that time they chose Montazeri to be Khomeini's successor. In 1989 the Assembly changed that decision and that is how the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, assumed the position after the death of Khomeini.
The Assembly of Experts is elected every 8 years.
This Assembly will sit until 2015.
The Assembly leader is Rafsanjani.
The Supreme leader is all powerful in Iran. His word is the final word on all issues. The people recognize The Supreme Leader to be untouchable and that is why during the unrest in the streets that followed the election, the people called for the removal of Ahmadinejad, but not of The Supreme Leader.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Friday August 14, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Kuwait, the 4th largest oil producer in the world, has thwarted an al Qaeda plot to blow up one of their largest refineries located in Shuaiba.
The attack was supposed to take place during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. The plan was to attack several important sites in addition to the refinery including a US military base and the Kuwaiti security headquarters.
Six members of an al Qaeda cell were arrested.
There is a lot for us to learn from these arrests.
Al Qaeda has pinpointed Ramadan as a very important month for targeting.
Kuwait is taking this plot very seriously.
Kuwait is just as much in the cross hairs of al Qaeda as is the West.
Most important and most crucial of all the lessons we can learn is this:
the best way to stop attacks from happening is through good, reliable, intel.
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Thursday August 13, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
At the International Atomic Energy Agency general conference planned for next month Iran will be proposing a resolution.
Iran will propose that any strike against a nuclear plant be determined illegal and be internationally condemned by the IAEA.
The motivation for the Iranian proposal is obvious.
Iran wants to make certain that should Israel strike at their nuclear sites there will be international condemnation.
Iran claims that this resolution is about making nuclear technology safe and about making certain that civilians are not injured in attacks against nuclear sites.
Iran claims that they are not concerned about Israel and that there is nothing selfish or self motivating about this resolution.
Iran is brilliant in proposing this resolution.
The majority of the 150 members of the IAEA will support the resolution.
Most IAEA members are dead set against using military force to deal with any conflict - especially a nuclear conflict.
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Tuesday August 11, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iranian news ran story after story about the congratulatory wishes sent by Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
INRA, the Iranian national news agency, carried a glowing report on how Mubarak blessed Ahmadinejad on his new second term as president.
The Egyptian press, on the other hand, was totally silent on the matter. No official spokesman was able to confirm that indeed Mubarak had bestowed such praise on the Iranian leader.
There has been a tumultuous past between these two Muslim countries, no real love is lost between them. An endorsement from Mubarak, however, would certainly help solidify the Iranian leader's standing and further secure his position not only at home but also in the greater Muslim world.
Those in the know, know, that Iran cannot invent Egyptian support.
Somewhere in the grand palaces of Egypt along the Nile some very important aide related the president's message of support to the Iranians.
This is another sign that the cold relations between Egypt and Iran are slowly thawing.
And that frightens me.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Monday August 10, 2009
I'm Predicting:
Talks designed to free Gilad Shalit, the kidnapped Israeli soldier held captive by Hamas forces for the past 1143 days, seem to have seriously intensified over the past week.
At least, that is the report coming from an Islamic Jihad website coming out of Gaza - and it is a report I am inclined to believe.
Ever since Shalit was taken hostage in a cross border attack, talks have been stalled, railroaded and stopped.
Now Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is urging Israel to make decisions on a list Hamas has put together naming the prisoners they want released in return for the release of Shalit. And Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader of Gaza, paid a clandestine visit to Cairo urging Mubarak to urge Israel even further on.
The report says that Hamas is just waiting for Israel to agree to the list.
The report also says that Israeli President Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Barak met on Friday to review the list.
I'm predicting that Israel will nix one or two of the names on the now infamous list.
When that happens, Hamas will be left with two alternatives.
Hamas can accept the changes Israel is asking for and release Shalit.
Hamas can reject the name changes and discontinue the negotiations.
It all depends on Egypt and how forceful Egypt is with Hamas.
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Sunday August 9, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian newspapers are laying the ground work for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's trip to Washington, DC.
The papers are debating Obama's Middle East policy.
They are writing about power and interests in DC.
They are discussing how and if Egypt and the Arab world have new power and pull with the US president.
One paper, however, is taking a different approach.
The Egyptian newspaper Al Akhbar has done a profile on the person they declare to be "the most dangerous man in Washington."
Who is that person?
His name is Michael Oren.
He is Israel's new ambassador to Washington.
Al Akhbar believes that Oren is dangerous because he is very active, because he has access and because he is, all around, very comfortable in Washington. He is able to make inroads.
Al Akhbar believes that Oren can reinvigorate the Israel US relationship that has been on the ropes. That Egyptian paper is concerned that Israel's ambassador will do a disservice to Arab interests.
Honestly now, what should be the objective of the Israeli Ambassador to Washington?
The objective is to serve the mission of Israel.
Al Akhbar is nervous because Ambassador Oren is doing his job and doing it well.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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