I've Been Thinking:

It is summer time again. And that means that Hamas is running their "terror for kids" camp program.

Hamas expects that there will be 100,000 kids in the summer camps.
Much of the program is dedicated to training. The curriculum has toy weapons, live fire, crawling under flames, swinging through smoke and the like. There are mock kidnappings and mock interrogations.

Hamas perceives the camps perfect recruitment centers. In addition to providing the children with something to do in the hot Gaza summers, Hamas instills and brainwashes their core values.

Interestingly, the largest camp system for Hamas children in Gaza is run by the UN. UNRA expects that they will have 150,000 campers. What do you know, but the UN facilities and storage areas have been vandalized.

The UN is hoping to provide an alternative to the Hamas thesis of education. The UN educational program may not be pro Israel, but it is certainly a thorn in the side of Hamas and Hamas will continue to sabotage and intimidate and do everything they can to mitigate the role the UN has in the lives of Hamas children.

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I've Been Thinking:

The US has officially concluded that the Assad regime has used gas against the rebels. It is clear that the red line that President Obama drew has been crossed.

So what can the United States do? There are no good options.

The administration has finally concluded that the rebels are not good guys and that there are many groups of rebels. The US now, should I say finally, realizes that a significant part of the rebels are al Qaeda.

Arming the rebels would be arming enemies of the United States. And the rebels are fighting each other. So even if the US gives weapons to rebels who are not anti-US, those same weapons could easily be given to, or taken by, rival rebel groups.

Drawing the red line was a political mistake. It was originally simple rhetoric. But then the president and his administration repeated the phrase so often that, in the end, the result will be that the United States loses face in the Middle East.

The United States now sees the downside of keeping Assad in power. If Assad stays in power, US interests and strength in the region could be severely damaged. The US will lose clout and Mid East leaders will be more likely to enjoy the courtship of Russia and Iran. Ironically, Russian and Iranian leaders are men of their word, not mere rhetorical wordsmiths.

Worse case scenario US weapons fall into the hands and arsenals of al Qaeda and Bashar Assad emerges victorious. If that is the way things play out, be assured that it will negatively impact the United States for the very long term.

All because of the need to publicly articulate a red line.

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I've Been Thinking:

Remarkable!

A new president has been elected in Iran. Hassan Rohani has won over 50% of the votes in the primary eliminating the need for next week’s run off.

Rohani was one of 6 contenders. All of the candidates were extremely well vetted. All were on good terms with The Grand Ayatollah, otherwise they would not have been permitted to run.
Rohani is being touted in the West as a reformer - and that is not true.

Rohani won for several reasons. He has the most flexible personality of all the contenders. He had a much broader electoral base than the other contenders. He crossed over ideological lines. And he was Khatami's candidate which is why he is being referred to - erroneously, as a reformist.

Rohani was also Rafsanjani's candidate, which made him a pragmatist. He bridged groups while the other candidates split the conservative vote.

In the end, and this is all that matters, The Grand Ayatollah is pleased because Rohani is someone he can work with to create domestic and foreign policies based on broad consensus.

Rohani is exactly the opposite of Ahmadinejad. One represents internal bridges, the other represented isolation.

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I've Been Thinking:

There has been some media coverage about Iran pulling its support for Hamas in Gaza.

The Iranians have said they will not support Hamas because Hamas supports the rebels in Syria and Iran supports the Assad regime.

Now Sweden has also announced that they will no longer be sending aid to Gaza. The Swedes say that the funds are simply not going where they should be going. The aid was supposed to help set up real government institutions and accountability. And that has not happened.

Qatar who pledged $8 billion to Hamas has fallen way short of their pledge and they are not planning on giving any more. Qatar seems preoccupied with other issues.

It seems that the Palestinians in Gaza are in for a very long, hot, difficult summer. And I mean that both literally and figuratively.

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I'm Predicting:

Yesterday 50 million Iranians went to vote for president. Ahmadinejad's term has come to an end.

Six candidates ran in this primary election. In a week, the top two contenders will face off in a runoff.

Do not mistake appearance for reality. Yes, there is a popular vote in Iran, but the only vote that actually counts is that of the Grand Ayatollah.

Think of the popular election as a variable that the grand Ayatollah uses to consider when making his decision. On the eve of the election yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei said: "What is important is that everyone takes part" He was speaking live, on state television, as he cast his ballot in the capital, Tehran.
He continued: "Our dear nation should come (to vote) with excitement and liveliness, and know that the destiny of the country is in their hands and the happiness of the country depends on them."

Of the 6 candidates, only 3 have a chance. One is the mayor of Teheran, Ghalibaf, former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and their preferred candidate. Another is the protege of Ahmadinejad, a candidate named Meshai. And the last one with any chance is an independent conservative named Jalili.

I predict that Jalili will be the next president of Iran. I choose him because he is both conservative and independent. The Grand Ayatollah can shape him and form him and direct him without outside political influences. He is the Ayatollah's type of man.

In the cases of the others there is far too much external baggage that comes with the candidates. We will see what happens in just a few days.

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I've Been Thinking:

Everyone has been preoccupied with the protests in Turkey and the fast changing events in Syria. Egypt has fallen to the back burner, but that doesn't mean that it is a country at rest.

Syria and Turkey continue to percolate and even bubble over --- and big problems continue to brew in Egypt.

A massive opposition demonstration is scheduled to take place in Egypt on June 30th. A petition launched in late May against new Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi has already gathered 7 million signatures. That is 10% of the country. Remarkable. The petition is called "Tamarod" or "The Rebel." The signers want Morsi out.

The protest has a name. It will signal the start of a new movement and is to be called "The June 30 Revolution."

Several Islamic groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have announced a counter demonstration. The counter demonstration will take place on Friday June 21 - the week before the opposition demonstration. If the early counter demonstration is successful and throngs of people attend, it will most likely result in pushing more secular and Christian Egyptians to the June 30 protest.

Either way, Morsi's days seem to be numbered. Along with Syria and Turkey, Egypt is spinning out of control.

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I've Been Thinking:

The other day two wounded Syrians were brought to Ziv hospital in Safed.

When they arrived the medical team noticed that tacked on to one of the wounded men was a letter, in Arabic, describing the wounds, the treatment and the surgery that had been performed earlier.

The letter is extremely polite. It reads: "Dear Respectable Surgeon, Hello. This patient is 28 he suffered from a bullet wound to the chest and shrapnel to the diaphragm and liver. " ... "His chest has been opened and the bleeding is stopped."

It goes on to explain several other procedures that were tried and offers some recommendations. Most importantly, it lists the medications that the patient is on.

According to the Israeli hospital they were able to operate on the Syrian patient and save his life. The original surgery performed in Syria and the information garnered from the letter was very helpful.

The letter is wrinkled. It is signed by the Syrian physician and dated 10-6-13. The letter ends, "Please do what is necessary. Thank you in advance."

Twenty Syrians have recently been brought to Israeli hospitals for emergency surgery. This is the first time where there has been any collaboration between the Syrian and Israeli medical teams.

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I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel has thwarted five major terror attacks and prevented thirty kidnappings since the beginning of the year.

This is significant because these are potential attacks and kidnappings that we know about. These were attacks where the terrorists were caught and apprehended. But there are countless others that are thwarted by the terrorists themselves.

In most attacks gone awry the terrorists abort their mission and there is no way of knowing how many of those attempted attacks/attempted kidnappings that may be. A terrorist could cancel for numerous reasons, but most often it is because when the terrorist arrives at the target he or she realizes that the target is secure.

When that happens the terrorists, even the suicide bomber, turns around and tries to blend back into the background. The suicide bomber wants as many people to be hurt and killed as possible. If he is not able to approach his target and get the bomb into position for maximum effect, he will abort.

In all probability 5 attacks and 50 kidnappings is really 10 attacks and 120 kidnappings.

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I've Been Thinking:

The rebels in Syria are feeling the crunch. As Assad gains more and more momentum they ratchet up their moves.

A major call has been sent out through al Qaeda and other Islamic websites for fighters to swarm to Syria - because without them, the fight will be lost.

Assad's forces, combined with Hezbollah fighters and Iraqi followers of the Shiite religious leader Muktar al Sadr, have joined together and they are now creating a pincer move against Aleppo which had been under rebel control since last year.

Al Qaeda forces from Syria and Iraq publicly executed a 15 year old boy from Aleppo. He was brutally, publicly, murdered and his parents forced to watch. The crime was heresy.

The boy was reported to have said "even if Mohammed comes down from heaven I will still not be a believer." The boy was overheard saying this in the street while selling drinks.

Al Qaeda needed to make an example of him. They shot him through the mouth and then again in the neck. Their goal is to motivate people to toe the Islamist line.

On the rebel side, volunteers are getting uniforms and weapons and then shaking down locals for goods and money. But they are vastly outnumbered in terms of personnel and arms.

In Syria right now the real ruler is anarchy.

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I've Been Thinking:

I do not often quote the website Debka. It is a site that focuses on and gives insight and intelligence about what is happening in the Middle East.

My major critique of Debka is that they have no real edit function.
Whatever comes in goes out. There is no filter on the intel they report prioritization of possible outcomes.

It is, however, excellent raw data - even when the data is inaccurate.

Debka recently reported that Iran has approached the United States through back channels in order to have them ask Israel exactly what their red lines are.

And, indeed, the United States has dispatched a messenger to ask Israel that very question. It is not clear how, or even if, Israel responded.

If true -- it is interesting that Iran seems to be interested in finding a way to down from the very high tree that they have climbed.

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I'm Predicting:

Bashar Assad, with the help of Hezbollah, is taking back Syria.

I am repeating the prediction I have made several times already. By the end of summer, the Syrian regime will be back in place - and exacting revenge on all those who challenged the president these past two years.

As you read this the Assad forces and Hezbollah are launching an operation to retake Aleppo.

Aleppo is the largest city in Syria with just over 2 million people. It is 180 miles north of Damascus. Aleppo is located in the northwestern part of the country.

Damascus, the Syrian capital, only has about 1.7 million residents and it is situated in the south of Syria.

Most of Damascus is in the hands of Assad. There are only two or three communities still holding out and under rebel control. The Syrian regime has begun a series of operations to take back those communities, also.

I would say that by next Sunday, a week from today, Aleppo and all of Damascus will be back in the hands of Assad. The rest of the country will be brought back under his control within the next few weeks.

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I've Been Thinking:

YNET reported on Friday that the US has successfully completed a series of tests with their newest and most potent Bunker Buster bomb, the GBU-57.

The United States publicly announced the success of the GBU-57after first sharing the results of the tests with their allies.

They released this information in order to reassure the West, especially Israel, that the new weapon in the possession of the United States can easily wipe out the underground nuclear silos that Iran has so infamously created to protect their own atomic program.

Rest assured that Iran, too, will be getting this message.

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I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, the head of al Qaeda, has a new audio tape that was broadcast though the internet yesterday. For 22 minutes Zawahiri gave long and explicit directions to al Qaeda followers throughout the world.

Zawahiri called for a jihad against Israel and against Assad of Syria. The Jihad that Zawahiri is calling for is not the introspection or deep religious thought that some apologists for Islam so often repeat. He explicitly called on Muslims to unite against America, Israel, Assad and Iran.

He said: "Lions of the Levant, unite around this honorable goal and rise above sectarian affiliations."

He said: "America, its agents and allies want you to shed your blood and the blood of your children and women to bring down the criminal Baathist regime, and then set up a government loyal to them and to safeguard Israel's security."

He said: "There is no solution for Palestine except Jihad."

He said: "Every free Muslim in Palestine should unite with his Muslim brothers to implement Sharia (Islamic law) and rule by it, and make it a reference above all references, and to liberate Palestine in order to set up an Islamic state, even if the West hates that and calls it terrorism and extremism."

Zawahiri uses very different metaphors in Arabic than bin Laden did - but make no mistake, the message is the same.

Oust all western influence, defeat all none Islamic totalitarian states, replace them with Islamic states, united - stand together against the anti Islamic western forces.

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I've Been Thinking:

Al Qusayr has been retaken by the Assad regime with the help of Hezbollah. It took a few days of fighting, but now all the mines have been cleared and the fighting has stopped. The city had a population of about 40,000 people before the fighting erupted two years ago.

Al Qusayr is in south western Syria, about 35 miles from Homs and right on the border of the northern border of Lebanon. It is an extremely important city strategically speaking.

Al Qusayr has always been composed of Sunnis, Alawites and Christians. Before the revolt the majority were Sunnis with a large minority of Christians and some small handful of Alawites.

The largest chariot on chariot battle in history took place in Al Qusayr (then called Qadesh) in 1274 BCE between the Egyptians under Ramesses II and the Hittites.

From the beginning of this rebellion the rebels controlled Al Qusayr. They brutalized and publicly executed people who were thought to be informants. The city was the epicenter for many defectors from the Syrian army and it actually had a defector tank in its rebel armory.

Until yesterday, the Assad regime had repeatedly failed in trying to recapture the city. Assad won the city back because, this time around, most of the fighting was done by Hezbollah.

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I've Been Thinking:

Major concerns have arisen about Iran's nuclear status. The fear is that the only active nuclear energy plant in Busher has suffered serious infrastructure damage from the several enormous earthquakes that hit the region in April and May.

Diplomats are saying that they have real concerns that there are meter long cracks in the facility - despite statements made by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that there has been no damage.

The Busher plant opened in September 2011, but plant construction was begun in 1975 by Germany and was completed by Russia. They say that there was no damage to the plant and that the construction was designed to withstand an earthquake of 8.0 on the Richter scale.

The first big April quake was 7.7. May's quake registered 6.6 the first day and then 5.2 the next day. These are very large quakes erupting almost right on top of the nuclear facility. And the tremors are not single events - they are regular, ongoing, strong shakes of the ground around the supporting walls that protect the nuclear core.

There is no question that these acts of nature had an impact on the integrity and the safety of the entire nuclear power plant.

I would be worried. And I would not live anywhere close to Busher.
Remember Chernobyl.

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