I'm Predicting:

A fourth round of sanctions against Iran will happen, but it will take some time.
Contrary to news reports, it is not on the horizon for the next few weeks.

The best evidence for my prediction comes from statements made by the Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin.
Chyrkin said: "We haven't set any deadlines ourselves for their response and there is ongoing dialogue."
Churkin made it very clear that the issue of further sanctions against Iran has not even been raised yet in the Security Council.
Churkin said: "There have been no firm agreements or understandings or any kind of concerted work in this regard."
Churkin explained his statement by saying that it is unclear if the six critical countries even see eye to eye on the deadline for an Iranian response.

Churkin is suggesting that Iran has quite a bit of wiggle room.
France has said that the Iranian answer is incomplete.
The United States has said that the Iranian answer is unsatisfactory.

Put it all together and this is what you get:
Russia is holding out to give Iran more time.

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I'm Predicting:

The main issue guiding the US election right now is the price of gas.
Call it energy policy if you prefer fancy wording - but bottom line, everything else pales in comparison.

Americans are visceral people. We are highly emotional and we have knee jerk reactions for our immediate needs and wants. And right now, Americans are ticked off at the pump. The candidates are trying to put together policy but they won't succeed because neither McCain nor Obama understands the real issue.

It is very simple:
Gas is to expensive.
Prices went way too high.
Now people are cutting back, there is a surplus and prices are coming down. And prices will continue to come down even more.
Add that to the increased supply that OPEC just agreed upon and the price will drop even more.

The price of gas will not drop to what it was a year ago, but it will drop to about $100 a barrel and level off to about $100 - $110 per barrel.
That should bring the pump price down to $3.10 - $3.20 a gallon.

I know the candidates went to the best schools we have in the country, but it would have helped had they paid attention in Economics 101.

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Column

Ehud Barak, Israel's Defense Minister, returned to Israel from a visit to Washington, D.C. In an almost revolving door scenario, Barak arrived on the coattails of Gabi Ashkenazi, Israel's Chief of Staff.

They were there to talk about Iran.

Iran has been the most important topic in every conversation between Israel and the United States for the past eighteen months. Iran is the most critical challenge to Israel and the most significant factor impacting the region. Iran is the most problematic force in the world today according to the thinking of the most powerful country in the world today, the United States of America.

And then they discussed terror.

They discussed Hamas and Hezbollah generated terror. They discussed the role of Iran in sponsoring the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organizations. Towards the end of that agenda item the United States and Israel probably shared insight and information on the status of world terror.

Finally, they discussed the Palestinians and the inability of the Palestinians to reign in terror even in the West Bank, let alone in Gaza.

Those were the discussions. Then came the crux of the visits. Then came the request.

Ashkenazi and Barak came to ask the United States for help in putting a stop to the acts of almost daily terror Israel is subjected to by Hamas. They came to brainstorm and to investigate. Israel is thinking of either borrowing or purchasing an American made weapon called the Phalanx CIWS Cannon. CIWS stands for Close-in Weapons System.

Both Barak and Ashkenazi are experienced in the military needs and demands of Israel. Like Ashkenazi, Barak once held the position of Israel's Chief of Staff. During his tenure as Israel's senior military official he was often touted as the most highly decorated officer in Israel's history. He was a prime minister once before and hopes to become his country's prime minister once again.

In Israel right now defense officials are frowning on buying the Phalanx or any new military equipment, for that matter. They want to concentrate all their investment energy and resources in one direction. They want to complete development on their own, new, weapon - a weapon that will protect Israel and be available for export around the world. It is called the Iron Dome.

The Iron Dome will probably meet all of Israel's expectations. The only thing the Iron Dome cannot meet is Israel's needs now. The Iron Dome system is not scheduled for completion until 2011. Israel needs help now.

Actually, the city of Sderot, the city most in need of protection from the daily onslaught of missiles, needed protection yesterday and the day before that and the months and months before that.

There is no doubt that the Phalanx will improve the defense of Sderot and of other communities that abut Gaza. But the Phalanx alone will not work. The Phalanx is nicknamed R-2 D-2 because it looks like the droid from Star Wars. This cannon system works like a hi-tech gatling gun. It shoots 3,000 to 4,500 twenty millimeter rounds a minute. It is designed to hit missiles and rockets and mortars that fly in low. Every United States Navy fighting ship is equipped with this system. The Phalanx uses two sets of radar, the first set tracks and the second, much more powerful and precise, guides the shot. There is also a Phalanx designed for the ground.

If the Phalanx was used together with an advanced radar system the people of Sderot would be able to sleep quietly at night - in their own beds, not in shelters. If the Phalanx was in Israel today the entire country would be safer. If the Phalanx was in Israel today Hamas would be one large step further away from destroying the lives and weakening the morale of Israel's citizens.

Buy it or borrow it. Go back to Washington. Israel needs protection now. And now, only the United States has the equipment capable of providing that protection. Some things are not worth waiting for.

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I've Been Thinking:

The conflict that took place this past weekend in Gaza is more significant than it at first appears.
The nearly 200 Hilless clan members who bolted Gaza and sought refuge in Israel were the last military stand of Fatah.

Hilless was the final group of Fatah-affiliated armed fighters in Gaza.
Now they are either all gone, killed or arrested by Hamas.
Their arms have been confiscated by Hamas.

It was the last military stand of Fatah in Gaza, but it is not the end.
30% to 40% of Gazans support Fatah over Hamas ideologically.
That will not change.
In fact, as Hamas restrictions on the activities of daily life continue to increase, the number of Gazans favoring Fatah will probably shift, as well.

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I've Been Thinking:

The US is in the final stages of deciding whether to open an interest section in Iran.
An interest section is a diplomatic office that deals with the interests of Americans in Iran and with Iranian interest in the United States.

It is an official diplomatic posting and even though it is below the level of ambassador, an interest section is still a diplomatic presence.
The only thing remaining before this office can be opened is a decision by President George Bush.

All of this leaves the presidential candidates in a strange limbo-like situation.
The United States may be changing policy on Iran.
If that happens it will, to put it mildly, have a significant impact on the foreign policy platforms of both candidates.

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I've Been Thinking:

In Gaza over the weekend 11 people were killed, over 80 were wounded and 8 are in critical condition.
The fighting between Hamas and Fatah continues on and on.

The exchanges were co heavy and so heated that 188 Fatah members sought refuge in Israel.
They are all members of the Hilless clan.
And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak let them in.

Both Egyptian and Palestinian representatives contacted Barak's office to make certain that these Fatah members would be permitted to enter Israel.
Even Ahmed Hilless, the head of the clan and was also wounded, escaped to Israel.

32 of the Fatah members returned to Gaza.
Most of them were arrested as soon as they crossed back over the border.
Gaza is not someplace you want to be right now.

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I've Been Thinking:

Let me put it bluntly: American voters do not cast their presidential vote because of the candidate's vice president.
So why all the hoopla?

The biggest issue in choosing a running mate is finding someone who will work best with the presidential candidate.
Who does the candidate think will best compliment his personality.
Better yet, who will do what he or she is told to do.
That is what determines the vice presidential choice - it is a personality contest, not a political equation.

The current VP has reshaped the position, but believe me, that is only temporary.
The next vice president will look and function a lot like every other vice presidents with the exception of Cheney.
No new precedents will be set when the next vice presidential hopefuls are named.

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I've Been Thinking:

Last week the Syrian Foreign Minister Wllid al Muallem visited Iran.
Today Syrian President Bashar Assad met Ahmadinejad in Teheran.
What's going on?

Syria wants to be brought in from the frozen diplomatic tundra that they have been kept in by the United States and the West.
Syria has, until now, been allied with Iran.
Iran is starting to feel the pressure.
Iran knows that once the process begins in earnest, Syria will not be able to play both sides of the fence.

Iran needs to make Syria understand how much there is to lose by abandoning Iran and embarking on a pro-Western joy ride.
Iran and the religious extremists have the power to destabilize Syria and topple Assad at will and in a matter if seconds.

Assad must decide.
Is the warm weather and the promise of new economic opportunities worth it?
What is the bottom line for Bashar Assad?

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I've Been Thinking:

I was shocked to read of a funeral that took place in Croatia.
It was the funeral of a prisoner named Dinko Sakic.
Sakic was convicted of being Commander of Jasenovac, a concentration camp, during World War II.

The Nazis created a puppet state in Croatia and called it The Nazi Allied Ustasha Regime.
Sakic was 87 when he died and was serving out his sentence for war crimes committed as supervisor of the camp.

Dinko Sakic was buried in his Ustasha uniform.
The priest who conducted the burial called Sakic a hero and a role model and a "person Croats must be proud of."

Dinko Sakic was a mass murdered.
He died in prison and deserves a proper burial - something he personally denied most of his victims - but Sakic should never be made into a hero.
To call Dinko Sakic a hero is to whitewash history.

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I've Been Thinking:

Of course race is an issue in this election.
This is America.
Race is the single most not talked about tension in America.

The first black candidate with a real shot at the title is running against a white bread American.
This has to be on the minds of everyone interested in the election.

The biggest question of the election is the race question:
Will white Americans be as open minded behind the curtain as they profess to be in public and in polls?

If the Barack campaign can answer that question then the campaign pollster can actually create a poll which has some real veracity.
The primaries proved white Americans can put the race card behind them and Democrats voted for Obama.
But then again, the other choice was a woman.

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I've Been Thinking:

Olmert made his announcement, now the pollsters take over.
The findings are not as obvious as once might think.

According to a poll taken yesterday and released this morning:
If there were national elections toady and Tzipi Livni were to head Kadima, the party would edge out Bibi (Benjamin) Netanyahu and Likud 26-25 (with a 4.1 degree of error). In another poll 32-27.
If there were national elections today the Labor party, under the leadership of Ehud Barak, would only pull in 17 seats in the new Knesset.

That means several things:
First and most importantly, Labor is not going to be out there destroying the government.
Next, Shas will also be wary because their seats are a crap shoot.
And third, this new poll indicates that Likud under Netanyahu is not so beloved.

There are a lot of "if"s in this poll.
If Shaul Mofaz, the other candidate for Kadima leader, wins the party leadership Likud would do much better come an election.

So let's wait and see.

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I've Been Thinking:

It was nothing short of thrilling to hear yesterday's announcements that both parties were taking their electioneering up a notch.

Things have been pretty slow - make that boring - until now.
I am not suggesting that campaigning go dirty, but the time has come to stop pulling punches.
The time has come to call candidates and policies for exactly who and what they are and then to exaggerate a little in order to make it all perfectly clear and memorable for the voters.

Politics is a rock 'um sock 'um game.
Barak can rock 'um and McCain will sock 'um and may the best party win.

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I've Been Thinking:

Ehud Olmert has declared he will step down as prime minister following Kadima primaries on September 25th.
What happens then?

I'll tell you:
The next leader of Kadima will try to keep a coalition of over 61 members in the 120 member Knesset.
If that person fails to maintain a majority Israeli President Shimon Peres must ask the leader of the next party in line to cobble together a majority within 28 days. The president can add on another 14 days for a total of 42 days.
If the second party leader also fails then President Peres goes to the third tier and that party leader gets only 28 days to put together a majority government.
If this person also fails to form a coalition, new elections are called within 90 days.

Ehud Barak, popular as he is, leader of the Labor party is not an elected member of Knesset so he cannot be one of those people asked to form a government.
But if new elections are called and if he places on a party list then he has a chance at once again, becoming prime minister of Israel.

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I've Been Thinking:

Am I the only person out there not surprised that the Chinese lied about health conditions and their ability to clean everything up before the Olympics?

Of course the Chinese lied.
There is no way to clean up Beijing - certainly not to the levels that we in the West consider safe.
So now we subject athletes and tourists to the mess and recognize just how we have been duped.

The Olympic Games are supposed to be above politics - but they are not.
The five rings represent the 5 continents (North & South America are considered one).
The five colors represent at least one color in every flag from every nation in the world.

The Olympics Games are all about politics.
China played the game of Olympic politics skillfully and won the big prize.
Now the health and well being of the world’s finest athletes are at risk.
Shame on the Olympic Committee for being conned by the Chinese.

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Column:

There are murders, mass arrests and a leading newspaper has been shut down. Tensions that had been simmering below the surface are now out in the open and they are boiling over. Hamas and Fatah are not only out for blood, they are out for power and control.

Gaza and tension go together like America and apple pie. They are inseparable. Even when the tension was not obviously manifest, even when it was not visible to the naked, untrained, non-Palestinian eye, it was palpable, it could be felt by the locals. An outsider's first peek at the rising tensions came when five Hamas military members were killed in a parking lot explosion in Gaza - and Hamas immediately pointed the finger of blame at Fatah.

And where Gaza goes, the West Bank is sure to follow. Here too, tensions, violence, acts of intimidation and menacing threats are emerging and hitting the streets and byways. Hamas began by arresting members of Fatah in Gaza. Fatah followed by arresting Hamas members in the West Bank. Now it is a game of Tit for Tat, Palestinian style. And for the players in the West Bank and Gaza Tit for Tat is a war game.

The game has just been taken up a notch. Murders, arrests, finger pointing, newspaper closings - those are the old components of the game. A new component has just been unleashed, it is the Palestinian propaganda machine. When it comes to Palestinian propaganda, Fatah is at a distinct disadvantage, Hamas is master.

It was one year ago that Hamas ousted Fatah from Gaza. Seven months earlier Hamas defeated Fatah in a parliamentary election. Hamas is using that imagery to convince the Palestinians of their superiority and right to rule. Hamas is using that imagery to instill fear in the hearts of Fatah and all other Palestinians. It is the imagery of victory and defeat.

Hamas has released some very powerful statements that cut to the core of every Palestinian citizen and taunts present-day, mainstream Fatah leadership. "Now the Zionists are protecting you," says Hamas. "You know that once the protection of the Zionists is over, people will enter your headquarters and kick you out."

These statements evoke memories of the coup in Gaza, pictures that every Palestinian has etched in their memories as clear as the photos that were taken and proudly flaunted at the time. Hamas gunmen taking over Fatah headquarters in Gaza. Hamas gunmen kicking up their feet with a massive portrait of Yasser Arafat on the wall behind them. Fatah, forced out and on the run.

"You must know," continues Hamas "we are not acting against you now in the West Bank because ... we know the Zionists will immediately back you."

Believe me, the average Palestinian is thinking those exact thoughts. And judging by recent polls it looks as if Hamas is gaining popularity - not in overwhelming numbers, but certainly gaining.

Palestinians leadership, that is Fatah leadership, is caught in a real sticky situation. Fatah needs Israel to prop them up, but Fatah cannot be seen as collaborating with Israel. The average Palestinian wants an end to the conflict, but the average Palestinian does not want to live in a West Bank ghetto. Palestinians prefer economic opportunity, Palestinians want freedom of movement. Palestinians want to be able to go into Israel and find work. Israel is a tool that is and will continue to be used by both sides in this war of words and actions.

The intimidation continues. So do the arrests and so does the bloodshed. Reuters reported that human rights groups are charging both Fatah and Hamas with the use of torture. The situation is out in the open, once again. The situation will continue to escalate.

The war between Hamas and Fatah never ended, it just went underground for a while.

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