I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iran threatened to sue Google.

From the Iranian point of view, the suit has great merit and touches upon a critical issue. It involves Iran's identity and her pride.

It is about her history and about her name.

In their Google Maps section, Google has renamed the peninsula that had once been called the Persian Gulf and Peninsula. They are now calling it the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula.

This battle over names has been an ongoing and fierce fight in the region. It was the cause the cancelation of the Pan Islamic games.
Arab countries in the region insist on calling the water and region the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran thinks otherwise.

The reality is that Google can call it whatever name it wants - provided it is an established name. And Iran has the right to block Google and Google Maps and prevent it from being received on Iranian computer networks.

But that is, to their chagrin, all the recourse available to the Iranians.

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I've Been Thinking:

Ampal - American Israel Corp., the Israeli energy company, owns 12.5% of East Mediterranean Gas, the Egyptian owned company that exports natural gas to Israel and Jordan.

Yesterday Ampal wrote off their investment and gave it up. They have been invested in the company for 20 years.

Their pipeline was being bombed on an almost monthly basis. And when the first quarter figures came in, it became apparent that Ampal was taking big losses. Some tanking was expected but the dollar figures more than proved the point. Last year Ampal made $17 million in the first quarter. This year's first quarter losses showed $215 million.

No company can justify that loss.

Ampal, the Israelis and the American investors all need to cut their losses and run.

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I've Been Thinking:

There has been an explosion in the oil pipeline in Syria. The bombing was originally reported by Syrian rebels and then it was reported in the Syrian press. The press also reported that pipelines had been bombed by rebel forces on April 21 and April 29.

There are several important issues here. Syria is not a player in the world oil market so the destruction of these oil lines will have no impact on world prices. Syrian production is already at 30% of what it was before the rebellion.

The explosion/s will, however, have a serious impact on Syrian cash flow. Oil is extremely fungible and the Syrians need the cash so they need to export whatever they can. The EU has a block against Syrian oil.

Convenience in shipping is very important and this oil is easily piped to the ports, loaded onto tankers and shipped. The best partner for oil from Syria is Iran they use tankers which are flags for hire. They get the crude and take it where it needs to go. But right now many Iranian tankers are filled with oil and sitting, waiting for a port of call to unload their black gold.

It seems that the pressure being applied to Iran is impacting, perhaps even more strongly and effectively, on Syria.

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I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is suffering from a double health crisis. This kind of public health disaster has the potential to devastate not only Egypt but the entire region, including Israel.

Egyptian animals and livestock are suffering from both Foot and Mouth Disease and from Avian Flu.

Millions of animals are sick at this stage, there is almost no stopping the diseases. The Avian Flu has been spread by animals infecting humans. Egypt has had 60 deaths so far and almost 200 people are known to be infected with the deadly flu. More than any other county outside of Indonesia.

The Foot and Mouth Disease was imported from Libya during the uprising when
more than 10% of Libyan livestock were killed because of it. In order to avoid the losses herds were hurried across the border into Egypt and now much of the meat is contaminated.

The only method of stopping these diseases, outside of mass slaughter, is to isolate or inoculate. Because of the current status of the army and the lack of any faith in government there is almost no chance that anything will be done. $1.8 million worth of shots arrived in March, but they have barely been used.

This could destroy the protein sources of the region and spill back into Libya, Sudan, Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.

This is serious.

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I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential front runner Abul Fotouh said, in a late Saturday night interview, that the treaty with Israel is a security risk to Egypt.

He said: "It should be revised."

In an earlier debate with Amr Mousa, another presidential contender, Abul Fotouh called Israel "the enemy." He also called Israel a racist state. Speaking about the treaty he said: "It is a treaty that forbids Egypt from exercising full sovereignty in the Sinai and allows Israelis to enter Sinai without visas, while they need visas for Cairo."

His take on Osama bin Laden is the quintessential example of the world view of this man who may yet become the next president of Egypt. Abul Fotouh refused to condemn bin Laden as a terrorists. He said that if bin Laden was tried by a real court it would be different. But there was no trial. He was not found guilty. He was not a terrorist.

That is his logic.

Abul Fotouh is called the liberal Muslim.

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I've Been Thinking:

Last week I was critical of Turkey and of the Turkish economy. The S&P had downgraded them and I explained that it was a direct result of their economic and diplomatic POV. That POV, I explained, made them an economic risk - or at least no longer an exceptional economic choice. As I wrote, Turkey went ballistic over the downgrade.

Well, at the end of last week Moody's - which is the other index or rating company, downgraded Israel from stable to negative.

Israel was downgraded for several reasons. A high percentage of domestic bank loans to huge Israeli corporations was one very important reason.

Geopolitical tensions was another important reason given for the downgrade. These tensions make international investment in Israel risky. Moody's was referring to the Arab Spring and to threats from Iran.

The report stated that in the past these tensions have not stopped Israel from growing, that Israel has bounced back and has been able to show creativity and economic stability despite the risk factors. This is a critical factor in understanding the position of Israel within the region.

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I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia just committed to a gargantuan aid package to Egypt. I know, I know --- didn't Saudi Arabia make the same pledge last year?
Last year the Saudis pledged 3.7 billion but, because of the turbulence in Egypt, they never followed thru with the money.

This year, on Thursday, Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million in aid. They also committed to depositing $1 billion into the Egyptian Central Bank.

And, as if that was not enough, Saudi Arabia committed to supplying Egypt with $250 million worth of butane gas which is used for cooking.

Egypt has also asked the IMF for $3.2 billion in aid.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Egypt in a few weeks. Saudi Arabia will want to make certain that Egypt is stable before they send over that hard cold cash.

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I've Been Thinking

Just hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wrapped up a two day diplomatic blitz in India, a huge bombshell drops.

The Clinton visit was all about getting on board against Iran. Clinton was pressuring India to restrict their oil imports from Iran.

Here is the bomb: Within hours after the visit, India and Iran signed a deal - a trade deal. Ostensibly, the deal is for India to provide sugar, rice and soybeans to Iran. In reality, it is a barter for oil.

Iran gives oil to India. India pays for the oil with sugar, rice and soybeans. This way, Iran does not have rupee problems and currency issues - and India is not in trouble for violating international sanctions by giving Iran US dollars.

We know this is happening because Iran has always been skittish about taking rupees. In February Iran took payment of only 45% in currency for their oil shipments.

This is a classic diplomacy story with the United States. Allies agree with the United States when they talk to the United States, and when the conversation is over, they turn around and do whatever is in their own best interests. The US has not yet learned that lesson

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I've Been Thinking:

The rebels in Syria are striking at military targets. A Syrian army convoy was hit by a roadside bomb Wednesday injuring 6 soldiers.

The report was issued by a foreign journalist traveling with UN observers. The bomb exploded seconds after the UN convoy passed. The UN observers and the journalist had a perfect view of the explosion and its aftermath.

Roadside bombs are a menace. They were the most dangerous tool used by al Qaeda against US troops in Iraq. They were used against civilians and against pilgrims.

The use of a roadside bomb by Syrian rebels is a classic tool taken from the al Qaeda handbook.

This bomb was very sophisticated. It was remote control operated. The controller was within eye view of the explosion and ignited the bomb either by radio frequency or by cell phone.

If road side bombs become common place in Syria the cost in lives could be extremely high.

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I've Been Thinking:

Here is my insight into the new unity government in Israel.

The newly elected head of Kadima is a perfect partner for the Likud leader. Shaul Mofaz is a hawk on issues of security. He served as defense minister under Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and was a successful chief of staff of the IDF, Israel's army. He is Iranian by birth, born in Teheran, to parents who came, originally, from Isfahan. His given name was Shahram Mofazzez Zadeh, a very ethnic sounding name - Shaul Mofaz has the ring of a true Israeli name.

Mofaz deeply understands Iranians, not just their language but also their mind set. He has a more liberal point of view than does Netanyahu on economics and social welfare. They are the perfect counter balance to each other.

Kadima is really a center- center/left party. And Likud is center -center/right. The coalition they have formed is now strongly center based. It is so strongly center that even if a party or two on either side of the spectrum should decide to leave the coalition it will have no impact on the stability of the government.

This is not an insider baseball issue. The ramifications of this newly formed coalition in Israel will not affect only Israeli society. This broad unity government under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu and then Shaul Mofaz has carte blanch on issues connected to security, Iran, and the Palestinians peace process -issues of vital import to the greater region and to the West.

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I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda released a new video yesterday which is now on Youtube. On the video 70 year old captive American human rights consultant Warren Weinstein sits crossed legged and begs President Obama for his life.

The video has the prisoner telling Obama that his life is in his hands and that he, like the president, is the father of two daughters. He asks the president to do what the terrorists ask.

Weinstein was kidnapped in Pakistan last August and this is the first real evidence that he is still alive. His wife in Maryland was relieved to see that, despite losing weight, her husband Warren seemed to be otherwise okay.

Kidnappings are common, but most of the time, the kidnappers demand a ransom. The kidnappers are mostly tribal. This is a kidnapping with a twist. This is an al Qaeda ala Khalid Sheik Mohammed style kidnapping, akin to the kidnapping of Daniel Pearl.

There is no way to negotiate with al Qaeda.

I hope and pray that this kidnap victim will have a different fate.
I hope but I am not hopeful.

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I've Been Thinking:

No one should be surprised that Khalid Sheik Mohamed and his cohorts are using their trial to advance their own agenda.

Of course that is what they are doing. The United States presented these ultimate thugs with a stage and with an open microphone.

Did the powers that be in the super power called the United States think that after nine years in prison KSM would be rehabilitated, that he would suddenly respect the institutions of Western liberal democracy and humbly submit to its august power. This is the same man who masterminded the 9-11 attacks and beheaded Daniel Pearl because of what the Wall Street Journal symbolically represented.

The delusional decision makers, those who determined that an open trial was an appropriate forum, should be ashamed. They should be reprimanded, charged with incompetence for putting 9-11 victims and families through an unnecessary and pre-ordained ordeal, for subjecting them to the language and actions of the men who have now twice desecrated them and their loved ones.

This was the moment the terrorists were yearning for, it was another dream come true.

In the eyes of the terrorists the only way it could have been better was if they were given a totally public trial in civilian court.
There were celebrations across terrorist networks as reports circulated of their comrades-in-arms spitting, not only on the graves of the deceased, but also in the face of the US judicial system.

These thugs have once again become terrorist role models.
But this time it is we who put them in the limelight.

Shame, shame, on us.

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I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is spending Sunday and Monday in India. According to an aid travelling with her, at the top of the agenda is convincing India to reduce their import of oil from Iran.

This is a very noble task. It is also herculean and an almost impossible feat to accomplish.

Of course, India will agree to curtail or limit or reduce or all of the above their import of oil from Iran - but they cannot.

India is an economic beast, they are the second largest nation in the world with well over a billion people - and they need oil.

Anytime extra oil pops up on the open market India gobbles it up.

This is a clear example of ideas coming into conflict with reality. India favors isolating Iran but they need the oil and cannot risk a lull. So India will continue to quietly import their oil from anywhere, including Iran.

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I've Been Thinking:

Standard and Poor's is the most influential rating agency in the world. They rate countries and they rate their credit.

This week Turkey was dropped from "positive" to "stable." And if you had asked me, I would have said that I was surprised it was not dropped even lower. Turkey would have dropped even more had it not been for some very dynamic economic legislation.

This will certainly drop the credit rating of Turkey and that drop in credit rating will immediately impact on their interest which means that the cost of their loans will skyrocket.

The Turks are livid - on the same day the S&P dropped their rating, they improved the rating on Greece.

Turkey is claiming bias and the president of Turkey has announced that Turkey no longer relies on the S&P.

The reality is that Turkey only had minimal growth of 4% in 2011 and expect only 2% this year. Exports are only 24% of their economy and prices increased 11% in April. China holds most of their debt and the debt is in the form of a short term loan.

Turkey can be as angry as they want but they are in bad economic shape and it ony looks worse in the short term future.

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I've Been Thinking:

The Vice President of Iran just wound up a visit to Hezbollah-controlled Southern Lebanon and Southern Beirut.

Muhammad Reva Rahimi stood on the Lebanese side of the border and looked over into Israel. He spoke about the need to continue resistance which, in his terms, means terror. He said that Israel is doomed.

Rahimi met with Hezbollah leader Sheik Hass Nasrallah.

Dignitaries do not regularly meet with Hezbollah. Only Iranians does, because Iran is an ally of Hezbollah.

It should be noted, however, that according to a leak that was spread earlier this week EU representatives met with Hezbollah in order to see how Hezbollah can use their influence in Syria and Southern Lebanon to maintain clam.

When it became obvious and clear that indeed it was true that Hezbollah and the European Union met, Israel blew a gasket -diplomatically speaking.

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