Column:

"Better to be smart than right."

The world of foreign policy runs on its own set of rules. Unlike in the real world, in the world of foreign policy the opposite of smart is not necessarily not smart, or dumb. The opposite of right is not necessarily wrong. The idea that in the midst of a dispute the right decision will inevitable emerge, the right action will ultimately be taken, does not hold in foreign policy decisions. In the real world there is no argument that can trump the ability to do, or implement, the right thing. In the world of foreign policy, that argument does not hold true.

In foreign and even in domestic policy, being right is not always the best way to go. The smart way is the way to go. Just because the argument is correct, or right, does not make it the appropriate thing to say or wise action to take.

When Eli Ishai, the Israeli minister of the interior and leader of the right wing Shas party, chose to make an announcement about the projected building of 1,600 apartments in Jerusalem in the midst of an extended visit by United States Vice President Joe Biden, Ishai chose right over smart.

As a result of the announcement the vice president was forced to issue a strong, serious, public statement condemning Israel's action and decision. Biden labeled Israel's decision as not productive. And when Biden met with Palestinian leaders shortly after the announcement was made topping their list of gripes against Israel was Israel's deliberate defiance of pre-set conditions and terms, Israel's desire to be contrary and to engage in non-productive behavior - all as exemplified by their announced intention to build new housing units. They say they are halting settlement activity, yet they announce a new project. Israeli leaders, say the Palestinians, are really closet settlers.

The Palestinian complaint about Israel is the same complain that Israel makes about the Palestinians - that they cannot be trusted.

Shas and Eli Ishai defend their announcement. They maintain that they were correct, i.e. right, in acting as they did. Their argument goes that this announcement reflects the reality - that Israel does what is best for Israel and will not be dictated to by the United States. Ishai and Shas believe that Jerusalem is 100% under Israeli control and that there is no compromising when it comes to Jerusalem. They believe that Jerusalem neighborhoods need to expand if only because of natural growth and demand.

Because of Shas' conviction and their impulsive desire to pursue the right way, an unconditionally positive public relations event now, suddenly and completely avoidably, has a black cloud hanging over it. A decision to say nothing or to wait for another opportunity to make this announcement would not have been a case of right versus wrong. It would have been the smart thing to do.

When the vice president of the United States visits Israel, he arrives with full court press. Every where he travels in Israel all foreign press stationed in Israel travel along. Every journalist covering the Middle East from Israel latches on to his entourage. China, Japan, India, Denmark, Norway, Sweden - they all have their correspondents follow every movement of the vice president, each one hoping to get a moment's access with the man perceived to be the second most powerful person in the United States. And they were all there to cover Joe Biden's biting critique of Israel.

Interior Minister Eli Ishai will not be muzzled. The Shas party will not be punished. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not have the backing to bounce them out of his coalition government. With all the safety and security issues facing Israel, with all the neighboring countries hoping to wipe little Israel off the map, it's shameful that right now Israel's worst enemy comes from within.

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I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced the construction of 1600 new apartments.

The announcement was a major embarrassment for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The announcement was made while US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel.

Netanyahu had told everyone, his cabinet, his advisers and even his press people ... no surprises ... no embarrassments.

Biden was forced to give Israel a tongue lashing. A perfectly uneventful and exclusively positive visit was turned into a tense moment and an international diplomatic incident.

Why? What motivated an announcement like that?
The decision was made by head of the Shas party and Minister of the Interior, Eli Ishai.

Ishai wanted to deliberately taunt the United States and their micro management of Israel.
Ishai used this announcement to say to the Israeli public that his party will not bend to the will of the United States.
Ishai was saying that the United States is not the most powerful force in the universe.

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I've Been Thinking:

Sunday's election in Iraq was a water shed event.

This was the second ever free democratic election in Iraq. This year 62.4% of the people came out to vote, in the 2005 election, 76% voted. The results are still not clear and even after the results are made public it will take a few weeks for us to understand what is really happening.

The most important revelation to emerge from this election is that the Sunni population came out to vote. In 2005 the Sunnis were effectively removed from any chance of holding elected office because they had boycotted the election.

The delicate balance that has been forged between Sunnis and Shiites since 2005, what we call Iraq today, may yet be shattered. The Sunnis want to put serious distance between Iran and Iraq, they want to make certain that Shiite tones are not sounded in Iraq.

We don't yet know what will happen.
We do know that the big loser in this election is definitely al Qaeda.

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I've Been Thinking:

According to the Israeli press, Israeli leaders have issued an ultimatum to Palestinian leaders.

In private conversations, Israel has told Palestinian leaders that they must move and move seriously to prevent the Palestinian uprising.
The Israelis said that if tensions and incitement do not drop significantly Israel will start making arrests. This comes in response to a dramatic increase in public incitement against Israel - incitement that has been unofficially condoned by public officials.

A Palestinian rebellion is in the making.
Israel is trying to convince Palestinians leadership that a rebellion against Israel is not in their long term interests.
Israel will not permit the Palestinians to create another Intifada.

I think the Palestinians have gotten Israel's message - now they have to make a decision.
If there is another Intfada, thousands of Palestinian will die and any hope of Palestinian statehood will be pushed off again.
But an Intifada is good for local, political, popular support it will look as if Palestinian leadership is taking a stand against Israel.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a resumption of indirect negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, scheduled to be announced later today.

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I've Been Thinking:

On Saturday night US Presidential special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell landed in Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

This meeting sets the stage for the announcement of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. On Monday Joe Biden arrives in the region and everything is expected be in place for the vice president.

This is a classically well choreographed American event.
It will be pitched perfectly for history, for the cameras, for the world to watch.

The only problem is that the parties are not quite up to the task.
Israel and the Palestinians have been playing a game and neither has been honest about their stand on indirect talks.
The Israelis and the Palestinians are placating the United States.

We will learn what they each really want only after the talks begin.

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I've Been Thinking:

Under new leadership, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has begun to take nuclear development by Iran and Syria much more seriously than it had in the past.

Over the past several months Syria has been challenged by the IAEA on more that one occasion.
An IAEA report shows beyond the shadow of any doubt that Israel destroyed a nuclear facility in deep in Syria.
The Syrian ambassador to the IAEA, Bassam Sabbag, insists that it is not so.

Sabbag claims that the uranium readings that were detected were a set up by the Israelis.
Sabbag claims that the Israeli sprinkled uranium in the area after they bombed the agricultural facility.

Conspiracies and conspiracy theories abound in the Middle East.
The more far fetched they are, the more likely they are to spread with a vengeance

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I've Been Thinking:

A team of Australian police investigators is now in Israel investigating the case of the Australian passports that were used during the assassination of Mahmoud Mabhouh.

This is not unusual.
What turns this bit of investigative work into news is that on Thursday, after leaving the Australian Embassy in Tel Aviv, the team hit a female bicyclist with their vehicle. They ran over the bike and kept on going.
They did not stop.

This is a serious violation of the law in any country. That police officials did not stop is scandalous. The woman, thankfully, was not badly injured. She is, however, demanding an apology and a new bicycle wheel.

In general, one of the rules of safe counter espionage in very risky environments is not to stop after minor accidents.
What appears to be a minor accident can in actuality be a trick, an attempt to kidnap the operative or to place a bug.
But this was downtown Tel Aviv.

An innocent, however unfortunate, encounter may now turn into a diplomatic incident. This time there is real evidence - as opposed to the assassination the Australian team is investigating which is filled with speculation.

Then again, this would be a Mossad-like tactic to discredit the Australians, wouldn't it.

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Column:

The Arab League has spoken. The twenty-two country members and four observer members of the Arab League have decided to support the plan put forth by the United States to jump start the stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis.

On Wednesday, the Arab League voted to support indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. They will meet again in July, four months from now, to determine if, or what, progress had been made. What they discover four months from now might just take the United States by surprise.

It's all about game playing - and in this game, each player plays by a different set of rules.

On the one hand, Israel is pleased that the Arab League has taken this initiative and is encouraging indirect talks. Israel welcomes the Arab League's involvement. On the other hand, Israel is not at all fond of deadlines. According to Israel's rule book, deadlines usually force one party to make hasty decisions on issues that are of vital importance, decisions that would not otherwise be made, decisions that will later be regretted.

Palestinians are looking at the Arab League vote somewhat differently. On the one hand, indirect talks are intended to lead to direct talks and if that is what is accomplished at the end of these four months, the Arab League's mission will have been accomplished. On the other hand, somewhere in the fine print of the Palestinian rule book it is written that now that the Palestinians have the attention of the greater Arab world, a privilege they are often denied, at the end of these four months, they might just be able to finagle independence and statehood out of the deal. And they will do it without the direct support of the United States and the United States will be too diplomatically polite to dispute it, even if it is not what Israel wants.

The player with the most complicated rule book is the Arab League. It turns out that the Arab League, however well intentioned, has no authority to make decisions about Israel and the Palestinians. They have no jurisdiction here. Going into the meeting, the Palestinians declared that they would respect the decision of the Arab League. Note the use of the word "respect" and not the choice of the word “follow.” In the end, it behooves the Palestinians to both respect and follow the decisions of the Arab League which is a far more conservative body than those pro-Western countries usually dictating policy.

Delegates to the Arab League are the foreign misters of their countries. Not only does the Arab League not have authority in this matter, the Arab League - according to a decision made by the delegates themselves - does not even recognize Israel's right to exist. That is not only a rule they have played by for a long time, it is a rule they just recently re-confirmed. And here they are, suggesting indirect talks with Israel.

The Syrians, with another set of rules, broke the Arab League code of unity that requires all member nations to stand together behind all League decisions, by publicly rejecting the decision to light a fire under Israel and the Palestinians. Syria has said that there is no reason to support any dialogue with Israel at any time.

Talks between Israel and the Palestinians disintegrated when the Obama administration came on the scene. The new and inexperienced administration demanded that Israel put a "total" stoppage to all building in the settlements. The Israelis said that they will not comply, citing natural growth and the special status of Jerusalem as reasons for their non-complicity. The Palestinians, however, grabbed onto this diplomatic blunder with great passion and have not yet released their grip. The United States has since realized how myopic it was to expect such a stoppage even in Jerusalem, but the damage has been done.

And now the Arab League has come to the rescue of both the United States and the Palestinians. This vote, this decision, provides Palestinian leadership with a safe and secure route back to the negotiating table with Israel. Now Palestinian leadership has the ammunition it needs to stand up to Hamas when they are critiqued for succumbing to decisions dictated not by their own needs, but by the wants of Washington, DC and Tel Aviv. Now Palestinian Authority leadership can come back to the table with their heads held high and the hope that, this time, their dream of statehood might just come true.

The funny thing about this whole game is that it's really a pre-game. All this posturing and all these machinations are just to get from the point of indirect talks to the point of direct talks. Imagine what will happen if everything falls into place and Palestinians and Israelis really do make it to direct talks.

Four months is not that very far away.

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I've Been Thinking:

One of the best ways of finding out the agenda of any country in the Middle East is by observing who is talking to whom face to face.

The vice president of Iraq, Tarik Hashemi, arrived in Damascus for a two day diplomatic visit. What makes the visit unusual is the fact that Iraq and Syria do not have diplomatic relations.

Iraq blamed Syria for the August bombings that devastated Iraq half a year ago. Iraq said that the Syrians permitted the terrorists to cross their border and then slip back over into Syria.

This meeting is an attempt at building bridges.
It will take much more that a meeting, but it seems that both sides are interested in improving diplomatic relations.

The big problem in all this is that Syria has a vested interest in sponsoring terror.
The big question is whether attacking America is more valuable to Syria than patching things up with Iraq.
Actions speak louder than words, we will have to watch this one carefully.

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I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, made a passionate speech yesterday condemning every Arab country and every Arab leader for inaction - every country except Iran and Syria.

Only Iran and Syria have taken a stand on behalf of Hezbollah and helped Nasrallah's cause.

Nasrallah said, "The Muslim nation must assume its responsibility and not leave the resistance movements alone on the ground."

He said, "When Syria and Iran stand by us clearly they assume their responsibility and should be thanked for that. Assist the Palestinians as Iran does and this will resolve the problem; assume your responsibility."

Arab leadership will not take up Nasrallah's call for assistance and support.
Arab leaders act and do not act for a reason.
Arab leaders will never do anything that endangers their position.
Inaction is always preferred to action.

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I'm Predicting:

Iran is beginning to rattle sabers and threaten Europe.
Iran intends to intimidate Western European leaders.
Iran wants to make certain that Europe knows there will be consequences to supporting increased sanctions against them.

What can Iran do?
Iran can turn off the oil supply to Europe.
Iran can even launch a missile strike that targets Europe.

Hussen Salami, deputy head of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard put it plainly: "Iran is standing on 50% of the world's energy and should it so decide, Europe will have to spend the winter in the cold."

Fars, an Iranian national news agency, reported that Salami also said:
"Our missiles are now able to target any spot the conspirators are in."

Iran will probably not carry out their threats.
That doesn't mean that the threats should not be taken seriously.
Europe is starting to quake - and that's just what Iran wants.

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I've Been Thinking:

The United States is beginning to get serious with Syria.
The Syrian Ambassador to the US has been summoned to the State Department to meet with US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman

The Syrian Ambassador will be told - in no uncertain terms - that Syria must stop arming Hezbollah.

This change in tone and demands by the United States comes about as the result of a failed trip to Damascus by Under Secretary of State Frank Burns. When Burns asked Syrian President about arming Hezbollah, Assad said he has no idea what Burns was talking about.

Assad did not even deny it.
Assad said he has no idea.
A flat denial would have been a more serious and more respectful response. Saying he had no idea was a snub, suggesting that Burns was not entitled to either a real lie or the truth.

The message will be sent from the ambassador in DC to the president in Damascus.
But no change will take place on the ground in Syria or in Lebanon.
This is a shot across the bow - it is a warning to Syria.

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I've Been Thinking:

Crude oil closed at $79.66 in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Earlier in the day, it topped the $80 mark.

For the past week oil has been swinging and swinging high. On Friday it hit a benchmark.

There are many reasons why oil prices go up.
Suffice it to say, increased oil prices do not help either the consumer or the West. The people best helped by increased oil prices are enemies of the US. First and second on the list are Iran and Venezuela.

The US wants to apply sanctions on Iran and this surge in oil prices is exactly what they need to give them the extra cash to ride out any of the potential rough spots that might emerge over the next few months.

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I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a day trip to Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was in Syria getting all his ducks in a row.

Assad and Ahmadinejad agreed on several issues.
At their joint press conference the leaders announced that the United States should pack up and get out of the Middle East.

The Iranian leader also met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shallah.
They all want to make certain that should there be another conflict with Israel, a united Islamic front will emerge.

They will fail.
There is a natural inclination for Muslim leaders to proclaim unity, but in reality, history shows us that in crisis, it is every Middle East leader for himself.
Should the time ever come, Iran will not lift a hand to protect either Hamas or Islamic Jihad.

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Iran has issued a warning.

They told every country that flies to Iran that from now on the water surrounding the area must be referred to as the "Persian Gulf" and not by the more commonly used name the "Arabian Gulf."

They said that every map and every piece of paper, even inside airplanes and used solely for traveler entertainment purposes, must reflect the change.

Countries that do not comply with this demand will lose their landing rights in Iran.

The conflict of "Persian Gulf" versus "Arabian Gulf" is the conflict that caused the cancellation of the Islamic games earlier this year.

Last year National Geographic referred to the water improperly and the magazine, their maps and their atlases were all banished from Iran. After a long discussion and much begging National Geographic is now back in Iran.

Iran is dead serious, they are not playing around.

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