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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Saturday October 11, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

I keep hammering away on the subject of national polls.
I keep saying that the national opinion of Americans really doesn’t matter.
I keep saying that national polling data is not even a close indicator of what might happen on Election Day.

I keep saying that what matters is electoral college polls.
I keep saying that what matters is how each stare, not the individual residents of that state, is fairing.

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
The best electoral college polling data as of Friday afternoon is:
Obama with 277, of those 211 are solid and 66 are leaning
McCain with 158, of those 143 are solid and 15 are leaning
103 electoral college votes are still up in the air

Three things could be happening:
# 1: The polls are totally wrong
# 2: There is no clear way of polling electoral votes and all the money is really going towards national polls
# 3: Obama has it in the bag and the only way to make this race even close is for McCain to sway all the leaning states and all the up-in-the air states and still swipe a handful of votes leaning towards Obama

I would go with the # 1 or # 2.
It would be nearly impossible for McCain to overcome that kind of difference.

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4 June 2017 12:14 PM in Thoughts

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