Wednesday January 7, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Chavez just expelled the Israeli ambassador from Venezuela.
Chavez's stated reason for cutting diplomatic relations with Israel is Operation Cast Lead.
But there is more going on here.
Chavez wanted to take a public stand against Israel and against the West.
This was his opportunity.
This was an important gesture.
This was proof of his commitment to support those whom he perceives as being oppressed by the United States and her associates.
The act of expelling the Israeli ambassador because of the Gaza defense operation empowers Venezuela as a leader of the developing world.
No one else stood up against the US and Israel.
Chavez can now claim that he alone stood up to the US and Israel.
This is serious currency in the bigger game of world domination.
Impressing Iran with his initiative and boldness is the big prize Chavez seeks.
Many people, including the Israelis, are upset by the loss of human lives in Gaza. For Chavez this is more than an issue of innocent lives lost.
For Chavez it is a mission, he is challenging US and Western values and leadership.
In this Chavez is in cahoots with Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and of course, Hamas.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday January 6, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Three Israeli soldiers have been killed and 24 have been wounded by friendly fire.
More Israeli soldiers have been killed by Israeli fire than by Hamas fire.
It was devastating, but not surprising:
Tragic accidents occur in all conflicts and in all operations.
In this case a tank hit a building where an entire Israeli team was taking shelter.
When so much firepower is so close in such a tight environment misfires happen.
That is why training and discipline so important.
They are the tools that are supposed to minimize the accidents that cost lives.
This should not come as a surprise either:
While all this was happening Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was telling EU representatives that there is no way that Hamas can have any victory.
Egypt's representatives were telling Hamas they must accept unconditional surrender and abandon their demands.
There is certainly no surprise here:
Muslim websites are calling the Israeli accident a sign from Allah.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday January 5, 2009
I'm Predicting:
The clear objectives of Israel's land operation are exactly the objectives of the aerial operation.
The success of the operation depends, in part, on the willingness of Hamas to say "uncle."
Israel's prime objective is to secure a stable, sustainable quiet.
For that to happen Hamas must agree to either international or local mediation.
Israel needs to eliminate Hamas' ability to launch 20-60 rockets daily.
So far, even under the pressure of Israeli fire, rockets are still being launched into Israel, so Israel's ground offensive is targeting the rockets, their factories and the commanders and, of course, the people who dispatch the weaponry.
Hamas, on the other hand, wants the world to know that despite the great fire power of the Israeli air force they continue to successfully launch Qassams.
I would predict that even after an agreement or a cease fire or a "lull" there will be a series of Hamas launchings into Israel just to prove that Israel did not totally destroy Hamas' caches of rockets.
Hamas will want to prove that an agreement to cease fire came out of strategic interests not as result of being crushed by Israel.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday January 4, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas is beginning to feel the squeeze of the Israeli operation.
Israel's ground objectives are being easily obtained, the ground offense has been very effective against Hamas.
Israel's army has sustained almost no serious casualties.
Hamas is using machine guns to halt the Israeli army.
Hamas is also shooting mortars, not an effective method in this fight.
Hamas leadership:
Hamas leadership seems to be softening their attitude and reconsidering a "lull."
Hamas leadership is shocked by the passivity and resounding silence of the greater Muslim world.
Hamas leadership is realizing that no significant international pressure has been brought on Israel to stop the offensive.
The next few tomorrows:
In a few more days Hamas will crawl back to Egypt with its proverbial tail between it legs and ask Egypt to lay the framework a "lull."
The damage that Hamas has done to itself is unquantifiable.
Implications for the Obama Presidency:
Israel's invasion into Gaza will prove to be a huge benefit to the Obama presidency.
This invasion points out clearly and definitively that the vast majority of the Muslim world has taken a stand against Muslim Extremism, they have taken a stand against Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday January 3, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
A special session of the UN Security Council is being called to debate a critical resolution on Israel's operation in Gaza.
The draft of this resolution is very difficult for fair minded country to accept.
Even Egyptian foreign minister Gheit said that it is not realistic to only blame Israel at the UN.
The good news is that the Security Council changed over the past few days.
South Africa, Panama, Indonesia, Belgium and Italy are out.
Uganda, Mexico, Japan, Austria, and Turkey are in.
This is a big move toward more rational Security Council resolutions against terror and Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.
Replacing Indonesia with Japan means replacing the world's most populated Muslim country with a country petrified of terror.
Replacing South Africa with Uganda means replacing dogmatic anti-Western rhetoric with real politics.
Replacing Mexico with Panama means replacing a country on the fringes with a burgeoning Western wannabe.
And Turkey is the model for all Islamic states that hope to blend the modern world with Islam.
Looking at it through Western eyes, things are looking up at the United Nations.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday January 2, 2009
I'm Predicting:
We are coming up on one week since Israel began their operation against Hamas.
Hamas has threatened to increase their attacks into Israel.
Hamas continues to hit despite being badly pummeled by Israel.
Hamas has been shooting back at Israel.
Israel anticipated that Hamas would hit back much harder.
Either Israel has successfully struck at Hamas weapons hordes , or Hamas is waiting for a more opportune moment to strike.
Today is the Muslim Sabbath.
Many Muslims in the region will go to Mosque and hear sermons aimed at motivating them and psyching them up even more.
So I would expect today, Friday, to be a day when Hamas unleashes even more rockets and even several suicide bombers on Israel.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Thursday January 1, 2009
I've Been Thinking:
Abuse of a Mosque:
Israel intelligence and reconnaissance showed that Hamas was using a mosque not as a prayer hall but as a hall in which to stockpile and hide munitions and from which to shoot rockets into Israel.
Israelis took aim and bombed the building.
The resulting secondary explosions, which can be seen on You Tube, are proof that the mosque was a warehouse for explosives.
Saudi Leadership on the Conflict:
The opening remarks of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister at a special session of the Arab League dedicated to aiding Gaza placed responsibility for the entire messy affair on Hamas. Couching his criticism in diplomatic terms he said: "This terrible massacre would not have happened if the Palestinian people were unified behind one leadership."
Egyptian Leadership on the Conflict:
The head of Egyptian Intelligence, Omar Suleiman, said that "Mashaal (the head of Hamas) and his thugs will pay for foiling the internal Palestinian dialogue that was supposed to take place in Cairo." He continued saying that "Hamas' leadership is guilty of great arrogance. It snubs Egypt. It leaders must be reined in and must wake up from their dream."
Reality Check:
Mainstream Arab leadership is very upset with Hamas. And they want to teach Hamas a lesson.
Mainstream Arab leadership must, pro forma, protest Israel action and innocent casualties, but they do not cry for Hamas.
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah