Sunday May 11, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Two obvious predictions about Lebanon:
It will get worse before it gets better.
Hezbollah will not step aside on its own.
Hezbollah has successfully been working their militia battles and defeating the supporters of the ruling union across Lebanon.
And the army has not gotten involved.
The Head of the army, Michel Sulieman, is the presumptive next leader of Lebanon in a compromise.
Sulieman has secured his position exactly because he has seen to it that the army did not come in to save the Sunnis and Druze coalition.
It was Hezbollah that did not want Sulieman to intervene and now he strategically forged a bond by not stepping in to save the democratically elected government.
The Hezbollah coup is nearly complete.
All Hezbollah needs now is an election and they will seal their total control of the Lebanese Parliament.
And Sulieman will have passed the test as their potential new President.
And that was the objective of Hezbollah all along.
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Saturday May 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
We must pay closer attention to what is happening in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, over the last few weeks, has made a bold move on the communications system of Lebanon.
Hezbollah has instituted an independent and parallel telephone system throughout Lebanon.
The objective is to be off the radar of Lebanese intelligence and of all Western intelligence services.
Hezbollah does not want their conversations tapped.
The implications of this move go far beyond a new and separate telephone system.
Establishing their own phone system is tantamount to creating an independent government apparatus over all of Lebanon, not just over the southern areas that are, de facto, under Hezbollah control control.
The Lebanese government struck back.
They dismantled the telephone system and fired the head of security at Beirut Airport who was a Hezbollah operative. The government took back the airport.
Now militias have taken up sides and taken to the streets.
Now the army is getting involved.
It is about time - Hezbollah must be stopped.
Lebanon has a history of weakness when it comes to their internal defense.
Lebanon does not take their country back from encroachers.
Hezbollah wants to turn the entire country of Lebanon into a Shiite state sponsored by Iran.
The only way to prevent from happening is to stand up against Hezbollah.
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Friday May 9, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
In honor of Israel's 60th birthday there have been a great many speeches and statements by leaders from around the world.
These tributes have furthered my realization that the vast majority of the world, even countries that have been traditionally critical of Israel, recognize Israel's vital contributions and role in the Western world.
The one statement that gave me pause, however, came from Israel's own president, Shimon Peres.
Peres said that he had not anticipated the Kassam rockets.
He was referring to the cycle begun when Israel withdrew from Gaza leaving Gaza under the control of the Palestinians that saw the rise of Hamas to power enabling a relentless showering of rockets from Gaza into Israeli communities that border and abut the area. The most noted of all is the city of Sdreot.
Not to have anticipated the Kassam rockets is a major flaw.
Israeli leaders, especially seasoned leaders like Shimon Peres, should have realized that rockets were the only way for Palestinians from Gaza to strike at Israel. The shame of it all is that Israel still has no response, no answer, no solution, to this initial mistake and miscalculation. And Sderot is still suffering.
One of the great elements of Israeli society has been creative responses to new challenges.
Where it that spirit of creativity when it comes to helping Sdrerot?
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Thursday May 8, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
I do not normally quote from contemporary politicians as examples of profound, significant or insightful thought.
Gone are the days when politicians were great orators.
As always, however, there is an exception to the rule.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said something at Israel's Memorial Day ceremony, which falls on the eve of Israel's 60th birthday, that struck me as so important that I am quoting it and want to underscore it.
Olmert said: "I cannot ignore the deep moral abyss between us and our enemies. We do not deny the right of any people and state to live in peace."
Olmert simply but powerfully encapsulated the chasm that divides the basic value system of Israel from that of her enemies.
Golda Meir said it so well when she said "We will have peace with the Arabs when they love their children more than they hate us."
After 60 years it is clear that Israel will not be pushed into the sea.
But 60 years later Israel still faces significant threats.
Israel is threatened because of a huge gap in basic human values - mostly about love and about hate.
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Wednesday May 7, 2008
Column:
The prophet wrote "and they shall turn their swords into plowshares." And when will that happen? When there is peace among neighbors.
Israel is trying to bring peace to the neighborhood called the Middle East. First there were overtures towards the Palestinians, now those overtures are being reformatted and put forth to the Syrians. What is Israel really up to? Is it the Palestinians or is it the Syrians? And is any of this realistic? Or is Israel making a public, ceremonial, wish before blowing out the candles on her 60th birthday cake?
Peace in the Middle East is certainly in the best long term interest of Israel and of the Palestinians and of the Syrians and of the entire region - it's in the best interest of the entire world, but the truth is that true peace is not exactly what Israel is pursuing right now.
Let's analyze the situation.
Israel is in a no win situation with the Palestinians. The two are at loggerheads. The Israelis are frustrated and discouraged. The more successful Israel is at fighting terror, the more successful Israel is at keeping the borders safe, the farther Israel is from peace with the Palestinians. It sounds counterintuitive and that's because it is a matter of Palestinian pride.
Israel, you see, has figured out how to keep terror down without the help of the Palestinians. This newfound security solution is in direct conflict with the accords signed in Annapolis and the testosterone levels of Palestinian leadership. The Israelis do not see the Palestinians as seriously combating terror. Israel wants Palestinian leadership to take charge and bring stability and a sense of normalcy to the Palestinian people and that, the Israelis feel, is best accomplished by providing a safe haven, literally and figuratively a safe home, for the Palestinians.
Clearly the Americans want peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. And to that elusive end the United States is investing huge amounts of time, energy and money. The United States wants the conflict resolved and the United States wants it resolved by the end of 2008. Just as clearly, Israel does not want to disappoint the United States, their sponsor and friend. But progress on the Palestinian peace front is v-e-r-y slow and not even arm twisting and document signing has succeeded in moving the process along.
Israel's success at road blocks arrests and targeted attacks prevent terrorists from reaching their targets. Israel's success at arresting gang members breaks up the units that are plotting terror attacks. Israel's success at assassinating terrorist leaders knocks the tops off of terrorist organizational pyramids and disrupts the command and control of the terrorist network. And for the most part, Israel is doing it without Palestinian assistance. And that hurts Palestinian leadership pride.
So Israel has turned her diplomatic energy away from the Palestinians and aimed it in the direction of Syrian. It was not a difficult move. It required nothing more than sending a message to the Turkish prime minister who passed it to the Syrian ambassador who delivered it to the Syrian foreign minister. It is the ripple effect of that overture that is dramatic.
The Palestinians know that Israel can only move on one peace track at a time. Israel cannot pursue peace with Syria and the Palestinians at the same time and the Palestinians know that they have been sidelined. They are upset. The pressure is on.
The world is getting the message that Israel is interested in negotiating for peace. Israel is so interested in negotiating for peace that they are turning to Syria, one of the members of the evil access. That means that Israel is willing to make concessions. That means that Israel has changed and the first country to break the logger jam and join Israel in peace will reap the most rewards.
The United States is being shown, subtly but clearly, that Israel can make diplomatic decisions without consultation, without asking for or receiving permission from Washington D.C. It means that the United Stats must revaluate the power plays of the Middle East because perhaps, just perhaps, little Israel may be able to wrestle Syria out of the grips of Iran. It means that the United States has to accept Israel's overture to Syria despite any previous hesitations over just such an overture on the part of Israel.
And it all happened without Israel's ever sitting down with the Syrians.
In real terms Israel cannot possibly come to terms with Syria at this stage. But Israel can put pressure on the Palestinians. And Israel can engage in a diplomatic ploy to push off the pressure by the United States to pursue peace on the Palestinian front.
There are many reasons why countries make overtures towards peace, only one of them is to actually achieve peace.
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Tuesday May 6, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Pope and the Archbishop of Canterbury met on Monday.
That's historic.
Henry VIII broke with the Pope because of dictates regarding divorce and created the Anglican Church - today there are 77 million Anglicans worldwide.
It's also contemporary.
The two spoke about Christian-Muslim interactions.
This past February the Archbishop touched on the subject saying that some Sharia, some Islamic laws, would be adopted in England.
There is significant tension between the Pope and the Archbishop and this comment just exacerbated the situation. The Anglican Church already has women priests and homosexual bishops. Now add on their attitude toward Islam.
Today the Pope's people were quiet about the meeting and the Anglicans termed it "warm and friendly."
But in March the Vatican's Cardinal in charge of Islamic relations called the Archbishop of Canterbury "naive" for saying what he said.
Oh, to have been a fly on the wall during that meeting.
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Monday May 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Every year for the past six years there is a conference to mourn Israel's creation.
The conference, organized by the Palestinian Committee in Europe and the Palestinian Right to Return Committee, is held in Europe.
The conference is timed to coincide with Israel's Independence Day.
This year is no different.
These are quotes from Sheik Rayid Sellah, head of the Islamic Movement Northern Branch in Israel.
"Your homes await you ... The mosques and churches, hyssop and peppermint herbs await you as well. They symbolize the roots and identity, the history and culture, they are our future."
"We have come to deliver a message of yearning and love from each grain of sand in the Galilee and the Negev, the Triangle and the Coastal areas, and Jerusalem. This grain of sand tells you - don't leave me, I expect to see you very soon at the dawn of the refugees' return."
"The city of Jerusalem is calling you to salvage it from the Judaization it is undergoing and from what the Israeli government is doing."
These are very powerful words.
These words do not speak of olive branches or appeasement or a desire to live together in peace.
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Sunday May 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The head of MI 6 is coming to visit Israel.
MI 6 is the British equivalent of the US CIA or the Israeli Mossad.
He is coming to get a briefing from Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad, about new intelligence concerning Iran's nuclear development.
The idea is to try to convince the West of the seriousness of Iran's project.
This new intel is said to be very convincing.
Israel has always taken a more serious approach to the Iranian nuclear program than other Western countries.
Israel has always maintained that the reality of a nuclear Iran is closer than other Western intelligence has predicted.
This little visit has the potential to make a big difference.
The West may now be convinced of just how dangerous Iran wants to become and how close Iran is to achieving that goal.
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