Saturday May 25, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The beheading in London has some interesting elements that should be addressed.
The most important is that the sympathizers, those who support the actions of the two Islamic terrorists, see a very different scenario than do most of us.
I am not referring to British foreign policy that was so coldly presented in front of the camera by the terrorist. I am referring to the fact that terrorist sympathizers will see the victim, Lee Rigby, as a military target.
To them it does not matter that Rigby was a drummer in the band or that he was out of uniform. He was coming from the base and he was a full time soldier. In the eyes of the sympathizers, just as in the eyes of the terrorists themselves, that means Rigby was a valid target.
Reuters ran an interview with Imam Omar Bakri - who was deported from England and is a teacher of these terrorists. The Imam expressed his pride and his surprise that terrorist Michael Abeolajo had the courage to fight and defend Islam. The Imam said that he was happy to see Abeolajo, "standing firm, courageous, brave. Not running away."
"The prophet (Mohammad) said an infidel and his killer will not meet in Hell. That's a beautiful saying," Iman Omar Bakri said. "May God reward (Adebolajo) for his actions."
"If you breach the covenant of security with Muslims you are digging your grave," he said. "I cannot condemn what Michael did. I don't see it as a crime as far as Islam is concerned."
Bakri also spoke bout moderate Muslims and those Muslims who condemned the attack. The Imam said that his form of Islam was winning the bulk of converts in Britain and scoffed at the "moderate chocolate" Muslims who he said are "always melting the way the West wants them to be - they never stand for what they believe." "They are just a waste of space."
Everyone does not see the world as we do. For certain elements of the Muslim world, terrorism = heroism.
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Friday May 24, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State John Kerry is in Israel. He met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and then went to Ramallah, seat of the Palestinian Authority, and met with President Mahmoud Abbas.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague is doing the same loop.
Netanyahu has said all the right things - the critique he is getting is for saying and not doing.
Here lies the problem. Netanyahu does not want the peace process to move ahead but he must pay lip service to the peace process for the sake of the United States and for his own electorate. The vast majority of Israelis, like the United States, favor a two-state solution.
Up until now Netanyahu has bet on the fact that the Palestinians would not be able to come to the table and, if they did sit down at the table, they would not be able to deliver. It never hurt Netanyahu to say all the right things.
Now the question is this: how effective will Kerry be to in aiding the Palestinians to deliver on issues related to security, police protection, justice and education.
Kerry's success will result in calling Netanyahu's bluff and forcing his reluctant hand.
Up until now Netanyahu has done all that can be expected. The only way the Israeli can do anything more is if the Palestinians are brought back to the negotiation table.
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Thursday May 23, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
In Syria, the pendulum swings almost daily.
After several weeks of momentum on the side of the Assad regime, the pendulum has begun to swing back and forth. From Assad to the rebels to Assad and now back towards the rebels.
Momentum is about "feeling." Big wins, losses, massacres - the triumphs and tragedies of war - are what cause the momentum to shift.
The rebel group al Qaeda al Nusrah captured a Syrian army base killing 40 soldiers and Assad affiliates. The base is near Nayrab which is on the road from Aleppo going west to the Mediterranean Sea.
This was a huge blow to Assad. Not just because he lost 40 soldiers but because he lost them to al Qaeda. In addition, the army base was on an extremely crucial access point.
The Syrian forces were not the best trained or the best equipped, but losing to al Qaeda was a significant psychological setback for Assad's soldiers.
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Wednesday May 22, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian committee that vets candidates for president has nixed two popular people from next month's presidential elections.
Both men were expected to be disqualified. But there was still a chance that the Guardian Council, the committee that makes these decisions, would have been swayed to make exceptions.
Former president Rafsanjani was barred from running because he is simply too old. The requirements for a candidate in Iran say that you must not be older than 70. Rafsanjani is 78.
The second disqualified candidate is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. He is only 53. But Mashaei had an unfair advantage and that is why needed to be sidelined. Mashaei is very close with President Ahmadinejad and was his former chief of staff.
The kicker, or perhaps the kiss of death, was that when Mashaei went to register as a candidate Ahmadinejad accompanied him. That was in violation of Iranian election law and Mashaei could not benefit from his public association with Ahmadinejad.
The presidential field is still very large. Over the next week the few contenders will the most potential will begin to emerge.
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Tuesday May 21, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
US President Obama spoke on the telephone with Lebanese President Suleiman yesterday.
Obama emphasized his concerns about Syria and about the possibility of the conflict spilling over into Lebanon.
He also explained that he was concerned about Hezbollah which is located in Southern Lebanon, and with their role in supporting Assad.
This is all true.
The real problem, however, emerges in that in Lebanon, Hezbollah is independent. President Suleiman has no control over Hezbollah. If anything, it is Hezbollah that has tremendous influence over Lebanon.
There is no question that Hezbollah is on Assad's side in Syria and they are fighting to help maintain his position.
Most telling is that Obama felt the need to even mention to the president of Lebanon his issues with Hezbollah.
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Monday May 20, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Coverage of Syria is pretty biased. It is extremely difficult to get a sense of what is actually happening.
We generally refer to the people fighting Assad as the rebels. But the situation is more complicated than mere labels. Assad and his forces are supported by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian advisers.
The rebels are composed of many groups. Some of the rebels are locals, others are foreigners. Some of the rebels are secular and others are al Qaeda.
Internal bickering between rebel groups has escalated to the point where they have now begun to fight one another. In the northern Syrian city of Aleppo rival rebel groups, both Islamic, are fighting one another. They are kidnapping each others' fighters.
A group called the Judicial Council accused the group called Ghurabaa al Sham of robbing their factories. And now, after about a week of fighting, both groups have taken prisoners.
This is just the beginning. It is highly unlikely that tensions will scale down between the two groups.
Assad is taking advantage of the internal feuding. Assad's forces, together with Hezbollah, began a major offensive with the support of jets and helicopters. The plan is to start taking back strategic areas in the north around Aleppo. These rebels are playing right into his hand.
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Sunday May 19, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Syria has set its highly advanced and extremely accurate Tishreen surface-to-surface missiles on standby. And they are aimed at Tel Aviv.
Assad has put the alert command into place. Syria is to launch the missiles immediately after getting the command.
All this is in this morning's Sunday Times of London.
On Saturday, Clarin, an Argentinian newspaper, published an extremely rare interview with Syrian President Bashar Assad saying that the rebels are getting intel and support from Israel.
He said:
"Israel is directly supporting the terrorist groups in two ways, firstly it gives them logistical support and it also tells them what sites to attack and how to attack them. For example, they attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defenses, which can detect any plane coming from overseas, especially from Israel."
There are two reasons for this important declaration.
First, is to try to isolate the rebels by saying that they are being aided by arch enemy Israel. Second, is to justify a Syrian strike against Israel. Israel has already attacked Syria three times and in doing so they are aiding the force which is dedicated to ousting his regime.
This new status makes the already unstable regional atmosphere even more combustible.
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Saturday May 18, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
United States Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Israel next week.
Expectations have dropped since I first wrote about this impending visit three weeks ago.
The plan has not changed, Kerry with attempt to breathe new life into an old and dead interaction.
Kerry has two agendas to carry out on this quick trip. He will visit Israelis in Jerusalem and meet with Palestinian leadership in Ramallah. He will attempt to sit them down - face to face.
Before arriving in Jerusalem, Kerry will visit Amman, Jordan.
There he will meet with some of the Syrian opposition groups. It is very difficult to meet with the rebel groups of Syria because each one has different loyalties – but none of them are pro-Western.
Kerry believes this trip will have substance to it. I think if will be a lot of fluff.
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