September 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
"Seize the moment." "Don't let this opportunity slip through our fingers."
President Obama has used these metaphors repeatedly in describing the talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
"This moment of opportunity may not soon come again." "They cannot afford to let it slip away."
The reality, however, is that this moment, the one taking place in Washington, DC. is totally artificial and purely man- made. The meeting was forced on both parties. It has nothing to do with timing. Actually - the timing is terrible.
The big event happens the day before the Labor Day weekend. Then comes Rosh Hashanah. After that, from September 10-13, is the three-day Muslim holiday called Id al Fitr. followed by Yom Kippur and Sukkot.
The reality is that until October, there is no actual time to sit down. Clearly, there is no burning need to sit down and talk. But the US administration wants this to happen now.
So now is when it is happening.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Wednesday September 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Tonight the ceremony begins.
Tonight the White House hosts Netanyahu, Abbas, Abdullah and Mubarak.
Tonight all sit together for a state dinner. Tonight the leaders of the United States, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority will break bread. Conspicuously absent from this event is Hamas - but their presence has already, sadly, tragically, been felt. The pomp and circumstance of the event will be more fitting for the end of the process than for the beginning.
The irony is that, while very few people appreciate this fact, this entire event could easily have taken place 20 months ago when Obama first took office. It was President Obama's insistence that forced the hand of the Palestinians and brought about the response of the Israelis.
In January 2009 talks between the Israelis and Palestinians were ongoing. What a waste of time, energy, productivity and momentum.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Tuesday August 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt has been in a tumult these last few days.
Posters appeared throughout the country abdicating for Gamal Mubarak, son of Hosni Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt.
Why is this at all interesting? Primarily because there has been no discussion, either public or private, about succession. And those who have rejected the ideas of political succession have been arrested or silenced.
Now a serious dissident, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, has signed a petition for Mubarak. Ibrahim claims that he signed in order to support a real election not to endorse the candidate/son.
Do not expect a real debate - but the young Mubarak does have many things going for him as the successor. Then again, he also has many negative traits.
If Mubarak junior is to become the next president of Egypt it will happen because he has been firmly placed in position by his father, so firmly placed that there can be no doubts about his credentials.
This will not be an easy political task. Then again, Mubarak the father has never shied away from difficult tasks.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Monday August 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Seldom do we get a really good first hand indicator of a developing country's potential.
Economists crunch numbers and insert variables. Analysts read the prevailing winds. Investors translate tones and offer a prognosis. But it is all one step removed.
So I was relieved to actually hear Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani explain his goals and give a timetable.
Iraq is producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
They are permitted 4 million per day by agreement with OPEC.
Shahristani said that he expects Iraq to meet OPEC totals within 2 years.
Iraqis are taking their production seriously. They are developing and expanding their capabilities. And now we have a serious timeline to attach to their objectives.
It seems doable.
Given the expansion, it seems sustainable.
Given Iraq's current orientations and direction we should take Shahristani at his word.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Sunday August 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi is now in Rome, his fourth visit to Italy in a year.
Ostensibly, the purpose of this visit is the first anniversary of the reparations agreement between the two countries. The Italian government has agreed to pay Libya $9 billion because of the Italian occupation of Libya from 1911-1943.
But nothing Ghadaffi does is without serious symbolic value.
The Libyan leader has pitched his famous Bedouin tent. He has brought along 30 thoroughbred Berber horses and 40 body guards.
During a previous trip to Italy, in November of 2009, Ghadaffi hosted a lavish party for between 200 to 500 beautiful Italian women - all of whom were paid to attend. They were models and hostess and were told wear dresses that came to the knee. At the party Ghadaffi delivered a long lecture on the attributes of Islam and asked his guests to convert.
I can't wait to see what Ghadaffi has planned this time around.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Saturday August 28, 2010
Column
The attitude adopted by Turkey towards Israel should never have surprised the security, political or foreign policy communities. Pay attention and you know what to expect.
The Turks are fed up and they are reacting instinctively by lashing out. Many people lay the blame for this new attitude and behavior on the Islamic orientation of today's political leadership in Turkey. That it true, but it is only part of the answer. Many blame the steady increase of Islamic political parties leading right up to the ruling party in Turkey. Again, true, but only a partial answer.
Turkey has been misunderstood for decades. Because of the natural western bias of Israel and the United States, it was assumed that Turkey was moving towards the West. It was assumed that Turkey was a Western-oriented state.
That assumption is incorrect. Turkey is a split state - and only a very small part, the part the West has concentrated on, is European. The remainder of Turkey, the vast majority of Turkey, is a part of Asia and of the Middle East.
At one point Turkey did display a serious desire to move toward the West, and while that desire was embraced by the Western world, it was only a blip on the social conscience of Turkey. To understand the stance the Turks have now taken, one must view this split state in the context of the overwhelming anti-Western sentiment that has always permeated Turkey and has slowly peeked out and reared its head over the past few years.
Turkey refused to allow the United States and other Western allies to headquarter on their turf during the second Gulf War. That was the first sign. It should have become clear and apparent that Turkey was more concerned about their internal, local and regional tensions as they were about their international issues. Preventing the United States Air Force from flying out of Turkey did not hinder the war effort, but it did bolster Turkey's standing in the Muslim world.
In January of 2009, at World Economic Forum in Davos, the leader and mouthpiece of Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, lambasted Israel's President Shimon Peres about Operation Caste Lead. This, too, was a very clear foreshadowing of things to come.
Because Western leadership was either blind to these glaring messages or perhaps, too hopeful to call them on the carpet, Turkish leadership felt confident that they would be able to successfully walk the tightrope - open their markets, sell their goods and reap the benefits of the Western economic group that would catapult them into a growth market and even, into a major player in the region.
And then, Turkey's hopes were dashed. For years Turkey dreamed and waited to join the European Union. But here was no possible way Turkey would be admitted as a full member of the EU - Greece would never hear of it. It is in that vein that Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Greece, Turkey's arch enemy, to cultivate the Greeks now that the Turks have displayed their true leanings.
Turkey needed new friends and new markets. Iran and Syria were the ideal partners.
So at this point Turkish leadership is less likely to respond as quickly or jump as high when the US calls. Tensions with the West are high. While the military is still a very important stabilizing feature of Turkish national power, it is not the army that makes public statements. The US and Israel are despised on the streets of Turkey today. The flotilla incident further strengthened resentment towards the West. In Turkey, Israel is the metaphor for the West.
Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, understood the need to break away from the shackles of the Middle East. He knew that the tiny parcel of European land that bridges Europe and Asia in Turkey was a springboard into a new modern world. That is why Ataturk recreated the Turkish language and dropped Arabic lettering, recasting it with English letters.
Ataturk was a political prophet. He pounded Turkey into the modern world and kept the Muslim religious issues at bay. Everyone knew those tensions would always remain. The question was only how long they could be controlled and sublimated.
We have the answer. Today's leadership in Turkey uses anti-Western feelings as a fulcrum to motivate domestic politics and to add serious international swagger. Turkey has given up the charade, Turkey is no longer playing another game. In many ways they have switched sides.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
Friday August 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Lebanon is in a bind.
# 1: Iran has offered to arm Lebanon.
# 2: The United States is calling into question the $100 million a year they give to Lebanon.
# 3: Iran stepped right up and said they will fill the gap.
This is very important.
Iran is already the supporter and arms provider for Hezbollah. If the Iranians now become the patron of the Lebanese army that means that they will, literally, be arming both sides of an internal struggle.
Lebanon does not want to join with Iran but there may be no other choice. The Lebanese know that all Iranian aid comes with multiple strings attached.
One of those strings may be that the Lebanese become proxy warriors against Israel on Iran's behalf. And that could mean the end of Lebanon.
Lebanon really needs the aid and Lebanon really needs the weapons to hold their own against Hezbollah.
Lebanon is faced with a serious dilemma.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah