Monday January 10,2005

I've Been Thinking:

For me, the glass (or in this case nargilla) is always half full. And so, it should not come as a surprise that I am relatively optimistic about life for the Palestinians after this, their first democratically held, election.

But negativism swirls all around and it seems to come from Palestinians and Israelis alike. Analysts are saying that very little change will happen after the elections. The fact is, they're right, virtually nothing will change. The difference between my thinking and most other analysts, is that for me, slow change to no change is an optimistic outlook. Why will it not drastically change? Because it's not supposed to. Not yet, not immediately. Not right after the election.

Democracy is not magic! Democracy is not mystical!

That is exactly the point. This election was more about democracy than it was about choosing a new president. It was about introducing democracy into the lives of a people for whom it is a foreign and difficult to understand concept.

Democracy is not ethereal. Democracy is supposed to help on the grass roots level, it is not pie in the sky. First things first. People must be able to go to work, to make a living, to go to school, to begin the process of building a future.

As time progresses, the big issues can begin to be worked out. And working things out is what democracy is about.

Democracy is about individual freedom. After individual freedoms are achieved then the group can find its way. Only after people feel secure and safe. After their daily lives are fulfilled and personal dreams are achieved can the larger dreams of a people be realized. That's where and when democracy can begin to happen.

I am not certain that newly-elected President Abu Mazen has what is needed to bring the Palestinians to a peace deal with Israel. But I don't discount him either. That is why I am optimistic.

Bringing about a settlement will be a huge task, we all know that. There is no doubt that trashing one is much easier than signing one. And we know that Arafat was a "great practitioner of rejection."

In the final countdown stages of the election, Abu Mazen was the master of mixed messages-condoning terror and celebrating its perpetrators. For the West and for Israel, the most interesting and problematic development of the Palestinians election was the new president's embrace of terrorists. But that was a non-issue for the Palestinians. The Palestinian press, however, made large note of each and every time Abu Mazen made a statement against violence.

And yet, it seems that despite the mixed messages Palestinians and Western world leaders heard Abu Mazen's calls for ending corruption and violence. Palestinians know that whatever happens now, Abu Mazen has told them that he is against violence. He has gone on the record and can clamp down and call on his overwhelming majority as a mandate.

In a vote of foreign confidence, the money has started to pour in. The US has upped their donation to $200 million this year. The EU will probably put up $500 million. Saudi Arabia has promised a few hundred million dollars. Add it up. It's a few days after the elections and Palestinians have a billion dollars more than they had last week.

But that money will come with a price. Everyone, even the French and the Germans whom Abu Mazen considers friends will want to see change. They will need to see Palestinians standing up against corruption and terror and moving towards peace.

The French Foreign Minister, Michel Barnier, was quoted in the daily Le Parisien saying that Abu Mazen's first responsibility "will be to reorganize the services of the Palestinian Authority as Yasser Arafat promised to do, in order to increase security guarantees for the Palestinians as well as for Israel."

Gerhard Schroeder, the Chancellor of Germany wrote in a telegram to Abu Mazzen: "I trust that the Palestinian people will follow the path you have chosen of renouncing violence and carrying out comprehensive reforms."

If he doesn't, these congratulatory messages from new colleagues turn into fighting words.

Will he use this victory and this money to clean up one of the biggest cleptocracies of history? Will Abu Mazen use his new power to force Palestinian police to protect their environment from internal threats of terrorists rather than sheltering terrorists?

I am hopeful. I am hopeful because unlike during Arafat's tenure, there was finally a real election for the Palestinian people. And soon, there will be another one.

That's democracy.