Wednesday January 12, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's resignation by Jabril Raboub is extremely significant.

He was the national security advisor in the PA, formerly the head of security in the West Bank under Arafat. I have met him several times.

This resignation sends out a message:
- Rajoub lost his power struggle to Muhamed Dahlan, Abass' preferred Gaza strong man.
- We might be looking at a serious shake up of PA security forces. If Rajoub is out, so too might be many other security heads, forcing middle level leaders to be brought under a single security umbrella.

The downside is --- this part of the world likes a strong man. He lends stability. He knocks heads. He provides order. His reputation precedes him. He is feared. A new person, an outsider or a mid level person, will not be able to achieve those ends easily. Certainly, not immediately.

And in this part of the world, order rules.