Monday, March 28, 2005

Column:

Don't be misled. Mainstream media does not always have it right. Sometimes the media, just like real people, morph reality into myth.

I am here to analyze today's reality as Israel prepares for a Gaza redeployment. Yes, redeployment. And yes, it is an inevitability, it is the reality. Redeployment will happen. It's what Israelis want, despite the myth to the contrary.

We hear of a potential civil war. We read how the masses are against the redeployment. We are told that if there were a referendum, redeployment would be stopped.

It is simply untrue. The masses in Israel are in favor of the redeployment. Not afraid of a referendum! The masses in Israel want out of Gaza. And they want it with or without an agreement with the Palestinians.

How do I know this? I look at the evidence, the facts, what has already happened, not what people say, will, or should happen. Most people call it analysis, but what they really do is subjective analysis, basing observation on what they want to happen, not on what is objectively happening. That's the difference between us. The media, naturally, love to grab on to the more extreme elements, leaving the public to deal with a picture that is more skewed than actual.

When the vote came to pass, the Knesset, Israel's parliament, could not even turn the bill to allow for a referendum on Gaza redeployment into a cliffhanger. No nail biting. No close call recounts. 72-39. That was the vote. 72 Knesset members voted against referendum. I'd call that a resounding failure for those in favor. Reality has to have set in, not for extremists who see this emotionally, but for those for whom the only legal way to stop the Gaza redeployment would have been a referendum. For them, the game is over.

What happens now? A reshuffling. Israel's public agenda will now be reshaped and news priorities need to be reworked and revised. And those ministers in the government of Ariel Sharon who have been vociferously against the Gaza redeployment will now have to make hard choices. They either stand firm on prior commitments and be ousted from the government, or stand firm with their prime minister, grin and bear it, in support as Israel prepares and then leaves Gaza.

Biggest among the casualties is Benjamin Bibi Netanyahu who has been fomenting against the Gaza plan for the past several months. A former prime minister and member of Sharon's Likud party, Netanyahu had big plans. He had hoped to gain the momentum of the referendum to oust Sharon and land himself back in the front seat. But his Knesset colleagues had other plans and have let Netanyahu know that his plan is, plain and simple, kaput!

Sharon is still the man in power and any minister who votes against his plans in this Knesset will be summarily fired. He's not kidding. Ariel Sharon's epitaph has been written many times over, but never etched in stone. Always undaunted, he rises from crises continues thumping along.

Referenda are never a good idea in national politics. The people sitting in Knesset are there because they have received the people's choice awards, they are there to represent parties based on the people's voting choices. Complaining that the process is antidemocratic or that it takes away power from the people or even that the leopard changed his spots is a political form of crying over spilt milk. Electing people and parties to lead the country, that's democracy.

If my analysis had been wrong, it would have been a tight Knesset vote. The irony is that there really was a sway to swing the referendum. If the pro-referendum contingents had approached the process rather than antagonized Sharon, the prime minister most probably would have capitulated. Why do I say that? Because I read the signs and there were significant signs of movement toward the referendum on Sharon's part. Now, now it is dead in the water.

Instead of eulogizing Sharon, it is now the referendum that is being laid to rest.