Thursday April 14, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

This week Lebanon's pro-Syrian Prime Minister Omar Karameh resigned.

This is bad news.
It's bad for Lebanon.
It's even worse news for stability.
Remember, there has not been a government in Lebanon since February, not since the assassination of Rafik Harari in a massive bombing in downtown Beirut.

Lebanon needs stability. Lebanon needs a government. Lebanon needs to free itself from Syria. Now, especially, there is little chance of that happening.

As of today there is a split in Lebanon.
The majority of Lebanese seem to want at least a close relationship with Syria, if not an official alliance.
Syria sees Lebanon as a province and would be happy to have that happen.

The vocal but growing minority in Lebanon want independence. They have so far succeeded in preventing a pro-Syrian government from forming. It is unlikely that they will be capable of forming their own government.

If Lebanon does not achieve stability quickly, these are two likely scenarios:
# 1: another civil war
# 2: Syria will invade and take charge.
Neither is good.

Lebanon is no stranger to internal conflict.