Tuesday September 27, 2005

Column:

Ariel Sharon has done it again.

The man has been beleaguered, besieged and figuratively buried more times than anyone but he can count and yet, time and time again, he returns victorious and totally in control. Israel's sitting prime minister has so far outmaneuvered or outsmarted each attempt to oust him. This rancher turned warrior turned politician has proven, as if to spite the predictions of his enemies and detractors, that he not merely understands, but actually controls the pulse of his nation.

It is easy to get swept up in the excitement generated by potential change in Israel's political structure. Democratic debate is exhilarating. The possibility of revolutionizing any political party, certainly the prime minister's own Likud party, is the stuff columns are written about, dinner party conversations revolve around and talk TV thrives on. It is part of the dynamism of democracy. But finger poking and rabble rousing does not in and of itself ensure victory for the revolution.

By voting to reject the proposal to hold early Likud primaries party members sent a vote of confidence to the prime minister, he is to remain their party leader. Once again, Ariel Sharon backed by party support is firmly ensconced in his position as leader of Likud. He has protected his position for the next seven months - an eternity in Israeli political time - until six months before the regularly scheduled party election in November 2006. The only way to oust him now is for members of opposition parties within the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, to sustain a successful "no confidence" vote.

Likud did the mature thing in keeping Sharon at the helm. To do otherwise would have certainly brought down their ruling party. Despite personal rivalries, disappointments and ideological principles, it is the party that must come first. Party members came to the realization that ousting Ariel Sharon from his place in the party would almost inevitable oust Likud from the seat of government in a nationally held election. Replacing Sharon with fair-haired party rival Benjamin Netanyahu might have appeased inner party members, but it would not go over well with the nation, a majority of whom view the former prime minister as duplicitous and not to be trusted.

If Likud were to oust Sharon they would not only be voting themselves out of power but they would be resuscitating the Labor party, a floundering party with no who one person, including the venerable, perennial, Shimon Peres, capable of mounting a serious election campaign against Sharon. Against Netanyahu, it would be a different story. Netanyahu is so disliked by the general Israeli public that if he were to be Likud party head he would not merely suck the life out of his party but also breath new life into the opposition Labor party.

I cannot predict how much longer Ariel "Arik" Sharon will maintain power.

I can guarantee that Sharon will not be easily dismissed. The most amazing part of it all is that Sharon, using the rancher metaphor, is a lone rider. Sharon hurdles around and through obstacle courses and outmaneuvers opponents almost single handedly. The prime minister has very few people whom he trusts and only a few with whom he can consult for honest and accurate political assessment.

Many people surround the prime minister. A lot them are people who covet his position or people who work for those who covet his position. Another group circling round are people ideologically opposed to him or people who feel betrayed by him. Then there are people afraid to make any decision for fear that it will be the wrong decision and will cast them in an unflattering light with this prime minister or with the man who will one day replace him.

Ariel Sharon has proven again that he is a leader who understands how to evaluate the masses. Ariel Sharon hears what the silent majority has to say. They want him to stay right where he is. For now.