Saturday October 8, 2005

I'm Predicting:

The Palestinian Authority is about to crack down on Hamas. A little.
Just a little.

Why? And why just a little?
It's a strategic move, a ploy, play acting.
It's because Palestinian President Abbas is on his way to Washington.

Abbas has learned well from Arafat his predecessor. He knows that the best way to advance his standing in Washington and to relieve diplomatic pressure while there is to offer the US a token action. This superficial attempt to crack down on Hamas is just what the United States and Israel have been begging him to do. He'll arrive in Washington with what looks like a plan, he'll be lauded and applauded and patted on the back. Then he'll return home and everything will go back to normal.

The plan worked for Arafat, time and time again.
Abbas has learned his lessons from Arafat, I hope the United States has learned, too. I hope that the United States sees that this is a ploy, not a change in policy.

In order to truly advance the diplomatic process Palestinians must disarm Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Not a little. A lot.