Saturday November 19, 2005

I'm Predicting:

There will be early elections in Israel - late February early March.
November 2006, a complete year from now, is the officially scheduled date.

Why? Because Amir Peretz, the new head of the Labor party, has forced the process. So this week the Knesset will vote to dissolve itself.

Honestly, this is a no-brainer.
Sharon will, once again, win hands down.
Sharon will win even if he splits from the Likud party. I doubt that the prime minister will leave the party, but it does not matter because whatever happens, he will be the absolute winner.
The only question is how many votes will separate Sharon and his party from the #2 and #3 parties, all of which translates into Knesset seats.

There is no personality on the stage of Israeli politics capable of competing with Sharon.
The presence and politics of Amir Peretz will backfire for Labor.
He will move Labor toward the left and Sharon will steal the middle of the Israeli electorate.

Sharon will win the swing vote and, in Israel, the swing vote determines the election.