Thursday January 12, 2006

I'm Predicting:

There is almost no doubt in my mind that the Palestinian Authority will postpone their upcoming parliamentary elections. I have been saying this for 6 months.

Why? Most important is that Fatah, the established Palestinian leadership, is having a hard time getting votes and it looks very doubtfully that they can win a significant plurality over Hamas.
According to the latest polls Hamas will gain by 31% to Fatah's 35% - almost a dead heat.
The same polling, a short while ago, had Fatah gaining 36.7% and Hamas gaining only 21.6%.
Poll increases in the final stretch of an election are significant signs of great gains.

Fatah does not want Hamas to win.
Neither does the United States, Israel, Europe and even the Muslim world.
A Hamas victory will mean a more radical Palestine.

Current PA leadership is paralyzed. They need the time to gain support by promising a safer future, by providing social services and by providing jobs.
If not, we will see another cancelled election.
If not, we will see Hamas in power.