Sunday February 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

We saw it coming.
Iran and Russia have announced a partial compromise on the issue of nuclear power. They have come up with a short term resolution that will also begin the process of easing the tensions that have sparked between Iran and the West.

Let's put this in perspective:
Russia is highly invested in the development of energy in Iran.
Russia is heavily invested in Iranian oil field development.
More important is the Russian investment in nuclear development -Russia is a billion dollar investor in Iran's nearly complete Busher nuclear facility.

While this agreement pleases other Western countries the agreement itself is based on mutual self-interest, not on world or even on regional stability.
The fact that a byproduct of this agreement results in regional or perhaps even world stability is nearly irrelevant to the parties (even though Russia has a slightly more enlightened vision of world affairs than does Iran).

Russia and Iran are in agreement that a mutual agreement is in their own best national and financial interests.
Yes, the agreement will be violated BUT within the context of an agreement and that point is crucial to our understanding of future events.

Mutual benefit - the only way to begin to resolve a diplomatic problem with Iran.