Wednesday July 26, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Condi Rice is now in the region, the Middle East.
Her actions and responses over the next 3 days are essential in determining whether or not Israel's goals in Lebanon will be achieved.

Israel must emasculate Hezbollah & they need another 10 days to 2 weeks.
Without that time:
Lebanon will have no chance of surviving as a democracy
Israel will have no chance of quiet on the northern border
Israel has no territorial claim on Lebanon and will not occupy, they are in & out

Syria must not be drawn into the conflict.
It would mean another front
It would break the model that Israel is creating which is a local not regional issue
If Israel bombs in Syria they will only bomb convoys carrying weapons, not Syrian targets
Israel does not want this to become a war with Syria, they want Syria to control Hezbollah

Hezbollah wants this to be a long drawn out war of attrition.
Israel wants it over fast.
The fate of the kidnapped boys has fallen into secondary status.

Condi, tread carefully.