Friday July 14, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Why and How did Hezbollah make the decision to target Haifa with a Raad I Missile, more commonly known as a katyusha?

Here's probably Why:
Hezbollah believed its own rhetoric and then mistook rhetoric for cues to shoot.
The rhetoric said that if Israel hits Beirut, Hezbollah will hit Haifa.

Here's probably How:
Hezbollah dispatched a team of people with several Raad I Missiles and gave them orders to launch only when told. The team has been in place for weeks. When they heard that the Beirut Airport had been hit they thought that was their cue to launch. It was not.

It was a huge mistake.
Hitting Haifa was an escalation too soon in the game and should not have happened, it raised the stakes very early on.
Hezbollah have always been masters of the waiting game.
The Raad I Missile, capable of bringing 2 million Israelis into range, should have been Hezbollah's all powerful frightening weapon.
While some Israeli sources suggest that an Iranian unit launched the missile.

This is no longer a game of intimidation.
The move has been made from the theoretical into the very real world of war.