Wednesday October 4, 2006

Column:

The great thinker and philosopher Machiavelli asserted that politics is the art of compromise. The Palestinian people and their leaders have yet to take that lesson to heart.

The recent explosion in the streets of the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian versus Palestinian, going at each other ruthlessly and violently, should not have taken anyone, let alone the Palestinians, by surprise. For months now I have been predicting this clash, Hamas vs Fatah, Fatah vs Hamas, innocents caught in the crossfire. For months I have been predicting that inner Palestinian violence was just a matter of time. And now the time has come.

This internal conflict is not about to dissipate. The warring factions will not run out of steam, or out of arms, they will not tire themselves out or let bygones be bygones. This state of conflict within the PA will continue until a true and viable victor is decided. There is no longer room for compromise in this situation. The Palestinian people will live peacefully among themselves, only when one faction emerges victorious.

The Palestinian people are paying a dear price for bad decision-making. They miscalculated when they overwhelmingly voted Hamas into power. Hamas was elected on an anti-corruption, anti-Arafat, i.e. anti-Fatah, platform. Embedded in that platform was the belief that Israel has no place on this earth, and while that theme is central to Hamas followers, it was only ancillary to the majority of those voters who put them in power.

Hamas was voted in because the people hoped to change the status quo. The people wanted their salaries paid, their street safe, they wanted to have food to feed their families. And today, with Hamas in place, what does the Palestinian Authority look like? Today, the people are not getting paid. There is starvation and there are strikes. Corruption and graft is worse than ever. Mafia and gangs roam the streets. Collection rackets are rampant. Palestinians watch TV and see Hamas attacking unarmed protesters and even funeral participants. Hamas never really understood why it was that they were elected and today, in hindsight it is easy for the Palestinian people to realize how myopic it was of them to put Hamas in power.

Simply asking the warring parties to stop warring is impossible. Asking them to sit down, set down arms and negotiate is counter-productive. A cease fire will only prolong the inevitable resumption of conflict. It will be a sanctioned "time out" that allows for one side in the conflict to re-arm and build up enough strength to attack the other.

According to Hamas, there are two factors responsible for this conflict. They are blameless, their own abuse of power and misunderstanding of the needs of the people does not enter into their own equation. Factor number one blames Fatah for insurrection and treason. Factor number two blames the United States for instigation and sponsorship.

If the Palestinian people were myopic, Hamas is blind, at least, legally blind. Hamas has fallen dramatically in the polls. After winning the election earlier this year and in the months following their victory, Hamas popularity rose to 66%. Two recent polls now have Hamas either losing to Fatah in another election or tying with Fatah. Not quite a resounding success story for either party, but it is all the Palestinian people have right now.

Hamas has failed as a government. They cannot and will not be successful political leaders because they have not and cannot make the transition from an ideological movement bent on the destruction of Israel to a political party that compromises. In essence, Hamas' political weakness is their ideological strength.

As much as in their heart of hearts the Palestinian people would love to wake up one day and see that Israel has disappeared, they have come to the realization that Israel is there to stay at least in their own lifetimes and probably the lifetimes of their children. The average Palestinian has shelved his dream of the elimination of Israel. Hamas has not.

So if neither party is ready to lay down arms and if negotiations are a big bluff, how will this situation end? The United States will remain on the sidelines, smiling but uninvolved. Jordan and Egypt however, the two big brothers of the Arab Middle East, have not been standing idly by. Jordan and Egypt have each come to the conclusion that Hamas is a liability, that Hamas is a destabilizing factor for the entire region. They want Hamas out and they will help make it happen. Egypt and Jordan, Mubarak and Abdullah, have been pressuring Palestinian President Abbas, the head of Fatah, to oust Hamas. He can call for a referendum or he can oust Hamas in a more violent way, but they want Hamas finally, out of their way.

In the final analysis, the person with the biggest gun rules the Palestinian street.