Friday February 9, 2007

I'm Predicting:

The ceasefire just signed between Abbas i.e. Fatah and Hamas will not last.

Reason # 1: Hamas is not capable of recognizing Israel
Reason # 2: Too many Palestinians are angered by the violence and those hateful feelings will not easily disappear

The specifics of the treaty itself will only briefly appear in the press, most of the coverage will deal with the implications of the deal, not with the details.
The agreement is all of 9 sentences long.
It contains very few details - but it does allow for a restructuring of the government with 9 Hamas representatives and 6 Fatah representatives. It also allows for several very important independent ministers - most importantly the Foreign Minister, Finance Minister and Interior Minister which includes security.
The agreement was hammered out because Abbas and Hamas both want the embargo against them lifted and Saudi Arabia has pledged $1 billion if they actually fulfill the agreement.

I do not see them reaching the bar and fulfilling the 3 essential points the Quartet required: Recognizing Israel - Accepting previous treaties - Fighting terror.
Hamas may let Abbas do his own thing, but they will not let him change the Hamas point of view.
The Quartet and others, however, might just lower their bar.