Friday June 29, 2007

I'm Predicting:

Tony Blair is the new peace envoy for the Middle East.
He will fail.

Why will Tony Blair fail?
Reason # 1: Because he simply does not understand the region.
Reason # 2: Because the involved parties are not really capable of making the compromises necessary for peace.

The sides are handicapped.
Handicap # 1: Both parties "want" peace, but they are far, far from a situation where they can have either a normal or a normalized relationship.
Handicap # 2: The West has expectation way too stratospheric to even realize when movement exists between the parties.

What can be done?
The most important thing is to get some sense of safety and stability on the Palestinian side, after that happens they can enforce their own agreements.

The situation is pretty grave right now.
So grave that in a survey made public yesterday nearly 20% of Palestinians want Israel to reoccupy and take over the Palestinians in order to improve their lives.
Tony Blair has a steep learning curve looming ahead. I do not think he is up to it.

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