Monday July 9, 2007

I'm Predicting:

Warning bells are ringing fast and furious in the Middle East.
Syria is expecting a civil war to erupt in Lebanon.

Question # 1: How soon?
As early as next week.

Question # 2: What's happening?
The Syrian government is removing all Syrian citizens from Lebanon.

Question # 3: What is the stimulus for a Lebanese civil war?
Hezbollah. Iran and Syria are trying to oust the UN from Lebanon. On June 15th the UN will decide whether or not to plug the holes in the border between Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah wants to force the UN's hand and take charge. Hezbollah wants to keep the border open and control the rest of Lebanon.

Question # 4: What is Hezbollah's agenda for Lebanon?
Hezbollah wants to take total charge of Lebanon. They are Shiites and so is about 40% of Lebanon. The remainder of Lebanon is a mix of Sunnis and Christians and they will fight a Shiite coup.

Question # 5: Will the Sunnis and Christians be successful?
They have a good chance because the rest of the Arab world - which is primarily a Sunni world - will side with the Sunnis of Lebanon against Hezbollah and Iran.

No matter the outcome, if there is a civil war, much of Lebanon will be destroyed.

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