Sunday September 9, 2007

I'm Predicting:

Syria is very upset that Israeli aircraft flew over their air space.
Why was Israel there? Israel was testing access routes to Iran and the best routes pass through Syria and Turkey.
Without leaking a military secret it is safe to say that Israel somewhat regularly flies over Syria trying out different routes and tinkering with passageways.

I suspect that Syria knows exactly what Israel was doing.
But this time, Syria went public. Why?
Syria took advantage of the moment in order to embarrass Israel, garner international support and - most importantly - mobilize Muslim antipathy towards Israel on the eve of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

The big question now is: How will Syria respond?
Syria has to save face.
Syria is calling up reserves - but I do not believe that they will launch a war.
Syria will probably call up even more reserves and move armor and tank corps into position, they may even run their planes over the Mediterranean Sea.
Syria will do all this to show the Arab world that they are responding.

Syria will not use the chemical and biological weapons that they have already outfitted on their scud missiles.
Syria is showing off, they will not cause an escalation in hostilities.
Not now.

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