Friday November 16, 2007

I'm Predicting:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the UN's nuclear watchdog.
The IAEA is headed by Muhammad el Baradei.
Yesterday the IAEA released a long awaited report detailing Iran's nuclear activity.

The report leads to much confusion.
The IAEA report both complements the Iranians for their transparency and declares that Iran needs to be more transparent. The headline screams one story but the details that follow and that few people will ever read tell a different story. Hidden within the body of the report is the admission that the UN cannot ascertain whether or not Iran has a nuclear military program because there are still many sites that investigators were not permitted to visit.

True to his style, Ahmadinejad has already grabbed on to the IAEA report.
Ahmadinejad is proclaiming that the UN has cleared him and that Iran really is cooperating and that this is clear evidence of how the United States and Israel stick their noses where they do not belong and so, therefore, this report justifies the harsh stance taken by Iran against US sponsored sanctions.

Given this IAEA report it is unlikely that the Security Council will make any headway censoring Iran. Both China and Russia will cite the report and sing the glories of Iranian compliance.

The United States and Israel will not let this report just slide by pretending that all is well with Iran.
The United States and Israel will now seek out those tiny details incriminating Iran and disproving the glaringly inaccurate IAEA headlines.
The United States and Israel will use their finding to motivate countries who do not trust Iran.
What a fiasco, what an embarrassment, what a shandah

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