Wednesday June 25, 2008

I'm Predicting:

A "no confidence" vote is scheduled in the Israeli Knesset.
The vote has been touted as a no brainer. A slam dunk, the end of Olmert.

I am not so certain.
Out of the 120 seats in Knesset, 61 must vote in favor of "no confidence."
Last week it seemed that the no confidence group had the majority.
But in Israel, things are never simple.

Here is the issue: If Olmert goes there must be new elections and some of those parties choosing to oust Olmert now might very well end up with fewer parliamentary seats in the new government in the next Knesset.

Kadima, Olmert's party, will shrink.
Labor and Likud, the other large parties, will probably gain.
But Shas and Meretz will probably shrink, too - actually, they might even shrivel.

So, acting out of the need for self-preservation, Shas and Meretz just might be able to keep a 61 majority in place and defeat the "no confidence" vote.
Olmert would remain in place.
The Olmert government would lose several Knesset seats in his majority after firing Labor ministers now in his government who voted against him.

Olmert will probably survive to fight another day.

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