Friday August 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The polls.
People speak of polls as if they are oracles that predict the future.

Yes, the gap between Obama and McCain in the polls is closing.
But there is still a degree of error of about 3%.
People always assume that the 3% brings the numbers closer together.
But in fact that 3% could just as readily move the numbers further apart.

That is why we must not only look at polls, we must also interpret trends.
Trends are just as important and revealing as poll numbers.
A trend that is moving slowly but significantly in one direction can mean more the results of poll.

To the casual observer it looks as if McCain is gaining in the polls-he is not.
The McCain polling numbers have stayed about the same these past four months, it is the Obama numbers that have fallen.

Sometimes, slow but steady really does win the race.

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