Thursday August 7, 2008

I'm Predicting:

A fourth round of sanctions against Iran will happen, but it will take some time.
Contrary to news reports, it is not on the horizon for the next few weeks.

The best evidence for my prediction comes from statements made by the Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin.
Chyrkin said: "We haven't set any deadlines ourselves for their response and there is ongoing dialogue."
Churkin made it very clear that the issue of further sanctions against Iran has not even been raised yet in the Security Council.
Churkin said: "There have been no firm agreements or understandings or any kind of concerted work in this regard."
Churkin explained his statement by saying that it is unclear if the six critical countries even see eye to eye on the deadline for an Iranian response.

Churkin is suggesting that Iran has quite a bit of wiggle room.
France has said that the Iranian answer is incomplete.
The United States has said that the Iranian answer is unsatisfactory.

Put it all together and this is what you get:
Russia is holding out to give Iran more time.

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