Saturday August 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

When it came to the Russian invasion of Georgia, most international analysts and commentators got it wrong.
Most all of them have focused on Russia's desire for an imminent return of the Cold War.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Russia cannot and does not want a return of the Cold War.
Russia wants to maintain their role as world leader.
It is other countries that yearn for the return of the Cold War.
It is other countries that are vying for a place of world dominance and the opportunity to challenge US hegemony.

Syria's total failure to see the reality of Russia's behavior was the greatest example of the fallout from this erroneous analysis.
The advisors to Syria's president Bashar Assad just assumed that the commentators were correct and that the Russians were off to remake their empire. That explains why Assad proposed all of those silly offers to Moscow.

Moscow does not need or want a base in Syria.
Moscow does not want to reestablish a major Middle East port in Tartus, Syria or anywhere.
Moscow wants respect.
Moscow wants that respect from the groups and the regions they deem to be peons, inferiors, the folk who up until a few years ago quaked at the very mention of Moscow.

That's what Russia wants.
What Russia wants is a far cry from what Russia has.

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