Saturday November 15, 2008

I'm Predicting:

On December 16th the cease fire between Hamas and Israel ends.
It looks like Hamas is not interested in an extension of the pact.

What makes me say that? Hamas has resumed daily rounds of rocket launchings into Israel over the past week.

There are several issues at stake.
This is election season in Israel.
Hamas seems unaware of the innate affinity that Israelis have for leaders who defend rather than endanger their lives. That means that by their action, Hamas might be forcing the hand of Defense Minister Ehud Barak to retaliate.

Hamas may be playing their own game.
Hamas may want to increase tensions in order to get a better cease fire deal. They have been talking out of both sides of their mouths, broadly proclaiming the need for a longer term cease fire within the '67 borders while at the same time permitting Islamic Jihad to fire rockets at will into Israel.

If Hamas continues launching rockets into Israel the response may well be an Israeli land and air strike against Hamas in the next two weeks.

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