Monday July 13, 2009

I'm Predicitng:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced yesterday that there could be no discussions with Israel without a complete end to all settlement activity.

Abbas is not speaking figuratively.
He means not even a single nail or a single nursery school - nada, nothing.
This is a big issue for Abbas, it is something he is insistent upon, something he has articulated to the Obama administration and that the administration bought into.

The wrinkle in Abbas' proclamation is that the White House has come to realize that not adding a single nail is not a very reasonable rationale. This new realization by the US probably comes as a result of the Israeli PM's acceptance of a two state solution.
The US administration is frustrated that the Arab world is not joining the team and recognizing Israel.

Abbas knows his demand is impossible.
He holds on to it as a precondition to even begin a dialogue.
He is hoping that mounting international pressure will force the US and Israel to recognize a Palestinian State.

My prediction: Abbas has overplayed his hand, watch for some fancy footwork by the PA leader.

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