Sunday December 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The situation is tense between Iraq and Iran.

On Friday, Iranian forces crossed over the Iraqi border and took control of an oil facility and pumping station.

The eleven Iranian troops hoisted an Iranian flag at the oil field and stationed themselves in a defensive position awaiting an Iraqi response.

This field has been disputed.

Until now it was on the Iraqi side of the border.
Iran seems to want to change that status quo.
This is an important trial balloon for Iran.
Crossing a border and raising a flag is a very significant statement.

The objective is two-fold:

# 1: to test how the United States will respond to this aggressive act
# 2: to test how local Iraqi leadership will respond to this incursion

What happens in the next few days will be an important predictor of Iran's future actions.

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