Saturday April 2, 2011

I'm Predicting:

The opposition in Libya, led by Moustafa Abdul Jalil, asked for a cease fire. They want to stop the fighting - under several conditions.
# 1: the United Nations monitors and controls the cease fire.
# 2: Ghadaffi draws from contested cities
# 3: protests and rallies are permitted

Ghadaffi will never accept these terms, for numerous reasons.
The most significant reason is that Ghadaffi will see this attempt at a cease fire as a sign of weakness by the opposition. He will interpret this gesture at reconciliation as a signal to wipe out or crush or symbolically destroy all those who confronted him.

We will start to see more aggressive moves by Ghadaffi - and that will threaten the coalition. The coalition and the UN Security Council will have to make a decision about what to do after Ghadaffi escalates.

This just may be a final turning of the tide for Libya, circa 2011.

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